textproduct: Dodge City
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Hot and dry weather for several days
- A hot weekend
- Possible monsoon moisture next week
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026
A strong 600 decameter anticyclone was located across southern Minnesota at 00Z. This mid level ridge will continue to remain northeast of the FA through Thursday. The net result is very warm but seasonable highs through the end of the business week. There will be low level easterly flow south of this ridge, and a diurnal fair weather cumulus field likely developing by noon and continuing through the afternoon hours tomorrow. Grand ensemble probabilities keep the highest probabilities of >100F highs north and northeast of the FA through the next several days. Thus, highs near normal (which is near low to mid 90s) are expected through the end of the business week. Lows of a mix from the 60s and 70s are expected during the morning hours.
Long range models and their ensemble counterparts show the mid level ridging sinking southward closer to the region during the weekend and through the beginning of the next week. This is also reflected in increasing probabilities of highs greater than 100F during this period per the Grand Ensemble. The hottest days are forecast Sunday and Monday, where a seasonably strong anticyclone will be directly overhead across the state. Lows will also trend warmer with values mainly in the 70s.
Long range models and their ensemble counterparts hint at the mid level ridge retrograding to the south enough by next Tuesday and Wednesday. This may result in monsoonal moisture advecting in across the edge of the ridge. PWATs are forecast by the models to increase in the 1.25-1.50" range. This may result in enough upslope flow and related isolated storms to form. The highest pops would therefore remain mainly across the western zones. Upslope flow/convection developing across the higher terrain of Colorado and possibly drifting closer to western Kansas.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 526 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026
VFR conditions will prevail with some mid level clouds this afternoon. Winds will generally be from the south to southeast.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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