textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonal temperatures can be expected Tonight and Monday. Lows tonight will be around 50. Highs on Monday will be in to the 70s. There is a 20-30% chance that lows may bottom out in the middle 40s in some locations.

- Warmer temperatures will return on Tuesday and will then be lingering through next weekend. Highs from Tuesday through next weekend will be in the 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Earlier this morning an area of high pressure at the surface was located over the Northern Plains and a cold front was located across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Across the Central Plains a northwest flow aloft was present as an upper level trough moves into the Northern Mississippi Valley and an upper level ridge builds across the western United States.

In the near term temperatures will stay near the seasonal normals for early October as the surface high builds across the Plains. This will result in lows tonight around 50 degrees. There is a 20-30% chance for lows overnight to drop into the mid 40s if skies remain clear north and east of Dodge City. Highs on Monday are expected to once again climb into at least the mid 70s.

On Tuesday the northwest flow aloft will continue as the upper ridge remains nearly stationary over the western United States. What cooler air that is located over southwest Kansas on Monday will erode from west to east as the warmer downslope flow air spreads east. The 850mb temperatures are forecast to warm into the 20 to 25C range by late day. Based on this warmup and an afternoon of sunshine the highs should easily climb back into the 80s as all the models suggest. Also would not be surprised if the afternoon temperatures end up being a few degrees warmer than the current forecast given the forecast 850mb temperatures and the past trend of guidance being too cool with it high temperature forecast.

As for the remainder of the work week and early next weekend the upper ridge over the western United States will weaken late week and a more zonal flow will develop across the Rockies. As the westerly downslope flow improves, a trough of low pressure at the surface will deepen in eastern Colorado and the southerly winds across western Kansas will increase. Along with the stronger winds late week/early next weekend there will also be the potential for deeper mixing to occur which would allow the warmer 850-700mb temperatures to mix down to the surface. As a result, not only is the ongoing forecast with unseasonably warm temperatures across western Kansas late in the week still look reasonable (highs in the mid 80s), but would also not be surprised to see the highs being a few degrees higher.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 522 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail thoughout the 00z TAF period. Surface winds will veer from the east to the south/southeast around 08z-09z starting from KDDC and progressing westward towards KHYS, KGCK, and KLBL. Sustained winds will avaerge around 5-10 knots throughout Southwestern Kansas. Wind gusts will kick up to 15-20 knots starting around 16z for all airports and will persist throughout the rest of the TAF period.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.