textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Much more seasonable weather conditions to end the week

- Thunderstorm chances Saturday

- Dry and above normal temperatures into next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1116 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

With the departure of a trough this morning leading to unseasonably cold start to this early May day, westerly flow will result in temperatures getting back to seasonable norms. Temperatures will be in the 70s across central and southwest Kansas today and Friday. With the exception of a weak frontal passage shifting winds northerly into Friday afternoon, no impactful weather is expected today and tomorrow. Low temperatures will mainly be in the 40s and low 50s tonight and Friday night.

Saturday afternoon will bring back the chance at some precipitation in the forecast area, as a northwesterly flow shortwave traverses the central Plains. Ahead of the associated front, a few showers and thunderstorms could develop. NBMs greatest POPs (40-60%) are across eastern zones into central Kansas. This chance of activity is supported by globals and some of the short range guidance that are coming within range. A lack of overall CAPE (<1500 J/kg) and shear (<40 knots) per model soundings will limit the risk for organized severe convection. However, strong surface heating will promote efficient mixing leading to high-based convection potential, per inverted-v forecast soundings. With those steep lapse rates, think a few stronger storms could produce at least some hail and strong winds, especially any that can develop in the later afternoon and early evening. SPC currently highlights a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms Saturday for the southeast counties for this potential.

After the front, temperatures on Sunday will be mainly in the 70s before a warm up commences into next week. With a ridge building across the west, temperatures will easily be able to climb into the upper 80s and 90s throughout much of next week. This pattern will lead to limited chances of precipitation, and especially any severe risks through at least next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 505 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Clouds/moisture will increase early tonight in the 8000 to 15000ft AGL, especially in the Hays area, as an upper level trough approaches western Kansas. There may even be a few sprinkles around Hays as this wave passes between 03z and 12z Friday. A surface boundary/cold front will cross Southwest Kansas early Friday morning. As this boundary passes the west to southwest winds at 10 knots or less will shift to the north and increase into the 15 to 20 knot range.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.