textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Record hot temperatures Monday afternoon in the 90s.

- Elevated to critical wildfire risk Monday afternoon.

- Strong dry cold front Tuesday with elevated to strong north winds.

- Cooler Wednesday, with a window of opportunity for needed rain showers Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Rain most likely northeast of Dodge City.

- Another strong cold front Friday, with severe weather potential across southeast counties (south central Kansas).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Midday infrared satellite imagery depicted scattered cirrus embedded in continued quiet midlevel zonal flow. Surface observations outlined a dryline sharpening across SW KS, with dewpoints ranging from teens west to 50s east. An unseasonably hot air mass persisted for one more day, with 850 mb temperatures, and gentle SWly downslope compression, sending temperatures into the 90s. Record highs are expected, with the hottest temperatures immediately west of the dryline, and across the favored Red Hills.

Tonight will be quite mild, as light southwest downslope continues in a very warm boundary layer. Many locations will remain in the 50s through sunrise.

The next dry cold front arrives Tuesday morning, followed by elevated to strong north/northeast winds, and much cooler temperatures. NBM was a compromise between the warmer MAV and the cooler MET, with afternoon temperatures reduced to the 60s and 70s for most locations. Northeast winds will gust 30-40 mph through midday Tuesday, before gradually diminishing late in the afternoon. NBM maintains chance category pops for the southeast zones Tuesday evening, and 5% wind/hail probability from SPC does clip Barber county. Suspect most/all thunderstorms along the frontal boundary will remain just southeast of the DDC CWA, but left pops in place for the southeast zones.

Rather tricky forecast for the first day of April on Wednesday, as cool air tries to hold on across parts of SW KS, and a strong shortwave approaches from the west. Cloud cover will be substantial Wednesday, with areas of stratus/drizzle north of the stationary frontal boundary. Clouds/drizzle would most likely hold all day across northeast zones, where NBM holds temperatures in the 50s. At the same time, strong lee cyclogenesis over SE Colorado, courtesy of the approaching shortwave, will push much warmer air into the southwest zones, well into the 70s. NBM already has a large temperature gradient across SW KS Wednesday, but it will probably be even greater than progged.

A window of opportunity for much needed rain showers and thunderstorms remains Wednesday night through Thursday morning, as forcing for ascent ahead of the approaching strong shortwave arrives. NBM pops continue to climb with each run, now into the likely category (>60%) for much of SW KS, and definite (80%) for the far eastern zones. Confidence is increasing on rainfall coverage Wednesday night, especially northeast of Dodge City, but the progressive nature of the shortwave will limit residency time of rainfall at any one location. WPC QPF guidance of 0.10-0.20 inch looks reasonable, highest amounts with eastward extent. It is difficult to get meaningful rain in SW KS from fast progressive systems, this early in the spring season. Surface low will track east across SW KS Wednesday night, with any severe storms expected to remain east of SW KS. Wraparound light rain is expected northern zones/I-70 corridor into early Thursday.

Strong subsidence behind the departing shortwave will allow sunshine to return Thursday. SW KS will be dry Thursday, with warmer afternoon temperatures in the 70s, and south winds returning.

Strong midlevel closed cyclone over the northern Rockies 7 pm Thursday, will eject to near Black Hills, South Dakota at 7 pm Friday, unusually far north for early April. Associated strong cold front will sweep through SW KS daylight Friday. Severe thunderstorms appear probable along the cold front, and near the cold front/dryline triple point, but confidence is increasing the vast majority of this activity will remain south/east of Barber county. North winds Friday afternoon/evening will be strong to intense, stronger than NBM, with 850 mb fields suggesting gusts up to 60 mph are possible.

Easter weekend will be dry, with noticeably cooler 60s on Saturday. A light freeze in the upper 20s to lower 30s appears likely Easter Sunday morning, as cool Canadian high pressure builds down the plains.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1034 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Good flying weather will continue through this TAF period, with VFR and limited scattered cirrus. SW wind gusts 25-27 kts are expected at DDC/LBL through 00z Tue, otherwise light winds are expected through 12z Tue. After 12z Tue, a strong but dry cold front will bring an abrupt increase in north winds, gusting to near 30 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Surface observations showed elevated to borderline critical red flag warning criteria in progress across southwest zones early this afternoon, with relative humidity less than 10% and west winds gusting 25-30 mph. These conditions will spread eastward some behind the dryline this afternoon, and the red flag warning was maintained.

A cold front will bring strong north winds Tuesday averaging 25-35 mph with higher gusts. Cooler air will increase humidity above red flag criteria, but the risk of wildfire spread will remain elevated Tuesday given the strong north winds and expanding drought.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ045-046-061>065-074>080-084>089.