textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Much more milder today; warmest day of the week

- Freezing fog potential late tonight through Thursday morning

- Warm up is short lived as colder air moves in Thursday- Saturday

- Snow chances and impact continue to be minimal for Friday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 319 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

00z upper air analysis showed troughing across the Midwest and into the Northeast, ridging over the Rockies, and another trough entering the western U.S. This places the forecast area on the fringes of a couple of features. As we go into late this morning and afternoon, the trough entering the Western U.S. will flatten out the ridge as it moves east. With the westerly downslope flow off the Rockies and 850 mb temperatures climbing to +7 to +9C, expect temperatures to climb into the 40s for everyone, with low to mid 50s in western zones. This will be the warmest day of the workweek. Into tonight and into Thursday morning, a period of freezing fog is being indicated on some short range ensemble guidance like the HREF and REFS. Probabilities are elevated for reduced visibilities, mainly west of Route 283, but widespread dense fog is not anticipated at this time.

The warm up on Wednesday will be short lived as another shot of cold, arctic air intrudes back into Southwest Kansas beginning Thursday morning with the passage of an initial cold front. High temperatures will struggle to get out of the 20s across eastern zones. Probabilities of less than 30 degrees are 50-70% on the NBM in places like Hays down to La Crosse, Larned, and Stafford. A reinforcing backdoor cold front is expected to move through Friday, resulting in chilly afternoon highs once again. Similarly, temperatures will struggle to get out of the 20s in eastern zones, but more mild air toward the west is expected where temperatures could reach the upper 40s to low 50s. Friday night into Saturday morning continues to be the coldest air of the stretch. Low temperatures Saturday morning are expected to be widespread in the single digits, with negatives in northeast zones. Apparent temperatures will be in the negatives for nearly everyone across the forecast area, with as low as -5 to -15 in those northeast areas. These temperatures are nearing or exceeding Cold Weather criteria, so considerations for headlines to highlight dangerous wind chills will likely occur as we get a bit closer to that timeframe.

Finally, snow remains in chance categories for Friday. The snow will be light, with very minimal accumulation potential given lack of moisture. NBM probabilities continue to show at least some minor accumulation of >0.1", with a focus in northern counties. Probabilities of greater than 1" have come down since yesterday morning's NBM data to 20% chance or less, further indicating the expected light nature and limited impact from the snow.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 527 AM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

VFR conditions are expected across much of the TAF period. Through this afternoon, expect westerly winds 5-10 knots, shifting southerly this evening, before again turning out of the north into Thursday morning as low pressure tracks south of the area. Only adverse weather will be the potential for some freezing fog to develop late tonight and into Thursday morning. Probability for widespread dense fog is low, but some elevated chances of 3-5 mile visibility is apparent, mainly after 07z Thursday. Have included BR into the DDC and HYS TAFs to account for this potential.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.