textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonal temperatures for mid July and possibly even a few isolate showers (10% or less) will be possible through the weekend.

- Highs near 100 with heat index values of 100 to near 105 in a few locations will be possible on Monday. The highest afternoon heat index values will be located near the Oklahoma border in south central Kansas.

- A slight chance for thunderstorms (20%) will be possible towards the middle of next week across west central and north central Kansas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1148 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

This morning, an upper level ridge remains over the Northern Plains, while an upper level low is situated over West Texas. Over the next 48 hours, moisture and subtle waves rotating around this Texas upper low will move northward across Oklahoma towards the Central Plains. This combined with afternoon heating will result in another round of afternoon clouds along with a small chance (<10%) for a few isolated showers, manly near the Oklahoma border in south central Kansas. A slightly better chance for showers will exist over south central Kansas on Friday given the forecast location of a 500mb deformation zone.

Temperatures over the next few days will gradually warm from near 90 to the low to mid 90s by Saturday as a surface trough low pressure deepens over eastern Colorado and 850mb temperatures gradually warm to near 25C. Given this warming trend along with the NBM guidance showing less than 5F spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles, the current forecast still looks on track with highs on Friday similar to today (Thursday) and the Highs on Saturday being 3-5F warmer.

An anomalous 594dm 500mb high will establish itself over the Central Rockies this weekend which will result in weak westerly flow developing aloft and ongoing dry conditions due to large scale subsidence under this upper high. As the upper high builds across the Central Rockies...ensembles remain in good agreement that a wedge of unseasonably warm air (850mb temperatures exceeding the 90th percentile of climatology) will develop ahead of a surface cold front that will be moving south across the northern plains as downslope flow improves. This cold front is now forecast to move into western Kansas on Monday where it will briefly stall before lifting back north as a warm front by the middle of next week.

Because the wedge of unseasonably warm air ahead of the cold front is not expected to reach western Kansas until Monday, highs near 100 are no longer expected on Sunday. However, highs near 100 are still anticipated across south central and portions of southwest Kansas on Monday. Anyone with outdoor plans early next week should be prepared for these temperatures, with heat index values potential reaching 100 to near 105. These highest heat index values will primarily be located across south central Kansas near the Oklahoma border.

Additionally, we will be monitoring the potential for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms near and northeast of this cold front towards the middle of next week. Confidence remain low (20%) regarding the exact location of the surface boundary and the timing of any of the embedded upper waves that will be moving along the west to northwest flow. This has made it unclear where the best chances for thunderstorms will occur (in/near southwest Kansas) during the first half of the work week. At this time based on the latest ensemble clusters it currently appears that west central and north central Kansas will have the better chance for any measurable precipitation.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 501 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through early Friday afternoon. South-southeast winds around 10 to 20kt are expected to persist through much of the period as a weak lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.