textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight chance of severe storms east of a line from Liberal to Dodge City, to Great Bend this afternoon into the evening hours. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main concern. An isolated tornado is possible across south central Kansas

- Precipitation chances continue Wednesday through Thursday with Wednesday night having the highest probability of occurrence

- Precipitation amounts look the highest across south central Kansas where over an inch of rain is possible

- Cooler temperatures are expected Wednesday through at least this weekend. Lows in the 30s will be possible Saturday morning with some areas across west central Kansas possibly reaching freezing

Mesoscale Update

T-storms will form ahead of a cold front and east of a dry line by mid afternoon given a weak capping inversion. 0-6 km bulk shear values in the 30-40 kt range are high enough for supercell structures initially, with hail up to 2" in diameter. Given the weak low level shear, storms will become outflow dominated by late afternoon, with damaging wind and marginally severe hail becoming the main concerns. Tornado chances are very low due to the weak low level shear; but can't be completely ruled out. Also, as the front sags south this evening, storms will become elevated north of the front after moving northeastward, which will also reduce tornado chances for all but the southern most storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

A cold front currently sits along Highway 50 and and is slowly expected to drift southward as the afternoon progresses. South of this front expect continued above normal temperatures and southwest winds with increased low level cloudiness and north to northeast winds north of this front. This will create a wide range of temperatures for highs this afternoon ranging from upper 60s to low 70s north of the front with low 90s south of the front.

Models are still on track to have strong to severe thunderstorms develop this afternoon mainly east of Highway 283 and south of Highway 50. SPC currently has a slight risk of severe storms east of a line from Liberal to Dodge City, to Great Bend. Storms in this area will have the potential to produce large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado will also be possible across south central Kansas. Precipitation chances remain high east of Highway 83 to night spreading across the remainder of the CWA Wednesday. The best chance of precipitation looks to be Wednesday night as another disturbance moves through the area. Precipitation chances then come to an end Thursday. The remainder of the forecast is expected to remain dry as upper level ridging builds across the western United States with high pressure becoming the dominate feature across the Central Plains. Cooler weather is also expected Wednesday through the end of the forecast with highs in the 60s to low 70s Wednesday and Thursday, then mid 50s to around 60 degrees Friday. We then rebound into the 60s Saturday with 70s Sunday and Monday. Lows in the 30s are expected Saturday morning and may reach freezing across portions of west central Kansas.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 622 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Aviation weather will deteriorate through this TAF period as cooler, moist air moves south behind our latest cold front. There are high probabilities (greater than 75%) off the HREF model of IFR flight category due to low stratus cloud development late tonight through pretty much all day on Wednesday as post-frontal upslope winds enhance the low stratus development as the main upper level storm system makes its approach on southwest Kansas. Periods of showers and thunderstorms will move northeast, north of the surface front through the period as well.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.