textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- T-storms are possible (20-30%) this afternoon and Saturday afternoon and then each day from Monday through Thursday.

- Hot weather will return Saturday with highs in the 90s.

- There are small chances (20-30%) for thunderstorms each day next week; and this could ultimately result in beneficial rain for many when considering the entire period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 105 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

A jet streak was approaching southwest Kansas today ahead of an upper level trough over the Rockies. With increasing low level moisture, surface heating and the lack of a strong capping inversion, severe storms are possible with large hail this evening. One round of storms will affect locations closer to the OKlahoma state line after 4 pm while other storms will likely move into far western Kansas later this evening. It is unclear if these storms will form into organized clusters so thunderstorm coverage is uncertain.

A closed low over the western United States will open up and progress eastward through Saturday before gradually moving northward thereafter. Thus, no strong frontal passages are forecast. With the increased mid level westerlies, a dry line is expected to set up along a line from WaKeeney to Dodge City Saturday afternoon. A farther west location of the dry line is favored rather than model solutions that push it into central Kansas. Given the relatively cool mid level temperatures and hot surface temperatures along the dry line, a few thunderstorms will form and move eastward, with the best chances (20-30%) in places like Larned, Pratt and Greensburg. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are possible with the storms. Given the formation of a capping inversion above the increasing low level moisture, dewpoints will likely reach into the lower 70s ahead of the dry line, leading to strong instability. The limiting factor on hail size is the lack of shear between 500mb and anvil level, which will reduce precipitation evacuation from the updrafts.

After a break Sunday, there are additional chances for t-storms Monday and Tuesday along the southern periphery of the aforementioned trough. Also, embedded disturbances along the southern edge of the westerlies could help with larger scale forcing. The storms Monday could also be severe with large hail and damaging winds. Whether any evening t-storms Monday can grow upscale into a large cluster and bring widespread overnight rain Monday night remains to be seen; but locally heavy rains are a possibility given the weak mid level flow. By Tuesday the upper level flow weakens further, with the potential for storm severity decreasing.

Even though 500mb heights will be relatively high mid next week, the various ensemble means continue to indicate a weakness in the height field somewhere across the central or southern plains. This could serve to temper high temperatures (instead of getting very hot) and also help keep low level moisture in place across southwest Kansas instead of mixing it out in the vertical. Although the potential for high end severe is very low, the potential for locally heavy rain is higher due to slow storm movement. Rain chances are low to moderate at any given point at specific times; but much higher when considering that there will be isolated to scattered t-storms each day in different spots. And the various model ensemble means show weekly rain amounts (this evening through mid next week) of 1" in central Kansas and .5 to .75" across far western Kansas.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 511 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing across eastern Colorado are expected to drift into west central Kansas and possibly portions of southwest Kansas this evening, potentially affecting the vicinity of KGCK and KHYS generally after 01-03Z. Another area of thunderstorms developing in northwest Oklahoma will move northeast into south central Kansas this evening, staying mainly east of KDDC. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through late Saturday morning. Southerly winds around 10 to 20kt with gusts up to 25kt are expected to persist through early Saturday as lee side troughing remains anchored in eastern Colorado.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.