textproduct: Dodge City

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry conditions continue; record heat probable

- Elevated to near critical fire weather concern Saturday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Ridge centered over the Desert Southwest continues to build eastward across the Rockies and High Plains. The resulting sensible weather will be very warm to hot conditions to close out the week and into the start of the weekend. Near record to records being met or exceeding is looking probable based on latest trends in NBM forecast mean and probabilities. Saturday will be the hottest day of the period, with temperatures forecast to be in the middle 90s for most. NBM probabilities for greater than 95 degrees are higher ranges 60 to near 100% for much of the CWA. There are even some low probabilities (15-40%) of triple digit heat. The greatest chance of nearing or exceeding the century mark will be across far southwest portions of the forecast area. Temperatures continue to threaten all time record high March temperatures, highlighting the rarity of these expected temperatures. With the persistent ridge with very limited moisture expected, NBM POPs are still negligible for the foreseeable future.

Saturday will need to be monitored for elevated to near critical fire weather concerns. While the heat and dryness will be in place, wind forecast is a little bit more uncertain, leading to some uncertainty in the overall level of fire weather risk. NBM currently shows southwest winds increasing to 10-15 knots with gusts 15-25 knots. While this forecast will be less than Red Flag criteria, knowing the NBM's typical low bias on winds and other guidance with slightly stronger wind scenarios like the ENS-control and NAM is suggestive of at least marginal Red Flag criteria. SPC fire weather outlook for Saturday now features at least a 40% chance of critical conditions across much of the forecast area. Coordination on any potential headlines will be made in later forecast updates.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1203 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period. Light winds of 5-10 knots is expected, with southwest winds shifting northwest 06-12z. Winds will become more variable after 18z, becoming predominately southwesterly again after 00z Friday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

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