textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Record breaking heat today in the 90s and approaching 100 degrees

- Red Flag Warning today until 9 PM CDT with a critical fire weather risk

- Highs Friday are expecting around a 40 degree drop compared to Thursday

- Warming back up through the weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Current surface analysis has a strong cold front descending into Kansas as forecast. Models/ensembles have it arriving around 3-4 PM from the northwest Kansas down towards southern Kansas. The front will bring cooler air and strong wind gusts (up to 40 mph) after shifting winds out of the north. Into the evening, wind gusts may strengthen up to 50 mph via ensembles. This may have significant fire weather impacts with a Red Flag Warning in effect until 9 PM CDT. More fire weather details in the that AFD section. Before the cold front drops temperatures, highs are forecast in the 90/100s. This will be at or above record highs for virtually the entire CWA. Areas near the KS/OK border are currently forecast to reach 100 degrees with ensembles having chances of breaching triple digits at around 75%. Additionally behind the cold front, CAMs have hinted at a weak storm or two firing. The placing and timing has some run-to- run disagreement, but generally agree that it would occur later in the evening and be east of Highway 283. Behind the cold front, the severe potential of any storm that initiates as near zero. Rainfall that occurs will be limited with the main threat being lightning, especially with any remaining fire weather concerns that linger that late in the day.

With the colder air, and continued CAA behind the front, highs Friday will be drastically lower with highs only in the 50/60s. With the lowered temperatures, relative humidities are currently above the thresholds for a Red Flag Warning. Although, conditions are very close and may change in the upcoming model runs. Regardless marginal fire weather concerns should be advised and precautions taken. Saturday is expecting a southern wind shift, bringing warmer air and helping high Saturday recovering back into the upper 60/70s.

Sunday will see warmer than normal highs and lower relative humidities return. Highs are currently forecast near or above 90 degrees for the entire CWA. Relative humidity minimums are currently forecast at 8-20%, although current wind forecasts of 10- 15 mph will help mitigate most fire weather concerns. Warmer highs are expected to continue Monday and Tuesday. Next weather headline is a potential pattern shift later on Tuesday. Ensembles hint at a shortwave trough later on into Tuesday. Currently precipitation chances remain low (<15% via ensembles) and around a 10 degree drop for Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1130 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for all sites through the entire TAF period. Wind speeds will be moderately strong ranging from around 15- 25 KTs with gusts up to 35 KTs. Around 21Z, a cold front is expected to descend across the area, shifting winds significantly to being out of the north. Winds immediately ahead/behind the front may be particularly gusty although short-lived. After the front moves through, high based cloud cover is forecast to move in affecting all sites, but not altering flight conditions.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all counties until 9 PM CDT. Record breaking highs are expected today, driving humidities down to 8-25%. Winds will start strong 20-25 mph out of the southwest with gusts up to 35 mph. Over the next few hours into the afternoon a cold front is expected to descend across the area sharply changing winds to out of the north. Winds may increase 5-10 mph with gusts into the evenings up to 50 mph. Relative humidities will recover around 7 PM CDT. Additionally in the evening, an isolated weak storm or two may produce lightning to compound the fire weather risk. Much of the southern area of the CWA is in a critical risk via the SPC. Fire weather will pose a danger today and the appropriate precautions are strongly advised.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.