textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Well-above normal temperatures will continue for southwest KS through at least Saturday, with highs in the 90s.

- Strong cold front will pass through late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, ushering in much cooler temperatures for next week with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

- Precipitation is likely with the cold frontal passage, along with multiple other chances throughout next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1110 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Late evening water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal strong ridging is in place atop the Ark-La-Tex region, with a potent cut-off low over the northwestern CONUS. At the surface, a lee cyclone remains in place across eastern CO and adjacent areas, which has supported south-southwesterly winds across the central plains the past couple days. Friday will be no different as winds become sustained in the 15-25 mph range gusting to 35 mph during the late morning through early evening hours. These downsloping winds along with strong solar insolation will contribute to afternoon highs in the mid/upper 90s once again. HREF members imply the majority of southwest KS will remain dry Friday afternoon and evening under the influence of the strong upper ridge, however a few stray showers/thunderstorms are possible favoring our northwest zones. Overnight, elevated southerly winds will limit Saturday morning lows to the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Daytime Saturday, short range ensembles agree the aforementioned potent upper trough will open up and advance eastward to the northern Rockies, and this will coincide with a slight weakening of the ridge over the southern plains. Despite the subtle height falls and a cold front impinging on our area, pre-frontal downslope flow and plenty of sun will support one final day of afternoon highs in the 90s. This boundary may serve as the focus for thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon/evening favoring roughly the southeast half of our area, however HREF members exhibit plenty of disagreement on several factors.

Sunday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles agree the upper trough will continue to track along the northern CONUS, further dampening the ridge in the process. In the wake of a strong cold fropa late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, and under lower 500-mb heights and westerly flow, southwest KS will enjoy its first prolonged stretch of fall-like temperatures this season, as afternoon highs stay in the mid 70s to mid 80s range through at least Thursday. Several opportunities for precipitation will also exist, most notably with the frontal passage early Sunday morning when NBM has widespread pops in the chance (25-54%), likely (55-74%), and definite (75-100%) categories.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 443 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

VFR will continue through this TAF period, with scattered mid or high level clouds. After 15z Fri, strong southwest winds are expected at all airports, gusting 30-32 kts. Some models suggest limited thunderstorms in the vicinity of GCK around 00z Sat, but kept this TAF package dry for now.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.