textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably cool temperatures continue through Wednesday.

- Rain chances (70-90%) return Wednesday night/Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 106 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

WV imagery indicates a southwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of a broad trough of low pressure slowly transitioning east through the Intermountain West. Near the surface, high pressure is expanding eastward across the Northern High Plains into the Dakotas.

Unseasonably cool/dry conditions will persist early in the period as surface high pressure shifts east across the Upper Midwest tonight, and into the Great Lakes Region Wednesday. Rain chances (70-90%) return Wednesday night as the SREF indicates a series of H5 vort maxima associated with an upper level shortwave trough ejecting out of the Southern Rockies into the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a prevailing east-southeast upslope flow will pull moisture into southwest/south central Kansas pushing surface dewpoints back up into the 50s(F), bringing about minimal instability. Combined with a modest field of +50kt southwesterlies aloft and sufficient lift within easterly upsloping, rain development is expected across portions of western Kansas Wednesday evening and continuing into Thursday. A few embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out with some instability present. As suggest by the HREF, the best chance for appreciable rainfall will be across west central Kansas into portions of southwest Kansas where there is a 70-90% probability of 24-hr QPF exceeding 0.25 of an inch by early Thursday morning. Additional periods of light/moderate rain are possible through the day Thursday with a broader scale upper level trough holding in place across the Intermountain West.

Unseasonably cool temperatures are likely tonight as surface high pressure moving through the Upper Midwest reinforces the cooler air mass settled across the high plains of western Kansas. Look for lows generally in the 40s(F) with the HREF painting a 70-90% probability of temperatures dropping below 45F across much of southwest Kansas to only a 10-30% probability of slipping below 45F in south central Kansas. The trend continues Wednesday with easterly upsloping doing little to erode the air mass in place, holding H85 temperatures to around 10-12C across the area. Widespread afternoon highs in the 60s(F) can be expected with the HREF indicating a 70-90% probability of temperatures exceeding 60F with highs nearing 70F in south central Kansas. Similar temperatures are likely Thursday, especially with lingering precip and prevailing mostly cloudy to overcast skies.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1030 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through early Wednesday. Light northeast winds through late afternoon will turn easterly generally after 00-02Z as surface high pressure slides southeast out of the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.