textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Tonight and again on Sunday night. Severe weather currently is not anticipated but a few of the stronger storms on Sunday may produce wind gusts in excess of 50 mph across extreme southwest Kansas.

- A warming trend is expected Sunday and Monday with highs across south central and portions of southwest Kansas ranging from 100 to near 103 on Monday.

- Improving chance for precipitation will develop towards mid week with locally heavy rainfall possible from thunderstorms Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Earlier this morning, a 500mb high was centered over the Central Rockies with a northwest flow present across western Kansas. Embedded in this northwest flow there was an upper level trough crossing Kansas with scattered early morning convection occurring ahead of this upper level system and along/east of a 12-14C 700mb temperature gradient. At the surface a stationary front extended from eastern Colorado into the Texas Panhandle. An area of high pressure at the surface was located over the northern Plains.

Models today remain in good agreement with the surface high building into the Mid Mississippi Valley over the next 24 to 36 hours allowing some cooler, more seasonal air, trying to filter into areas of central Kansas through early next week. The surface boundary will remain nearly stationary across eastern Colorado and the Panhandle of Texas. Upslope flow north of this boundary and improving instability late day will result in an opportunity for late day/evening convection over eastern Colorado as a upper level trough crosses the Rockies and moves out into the West Central High Plains. While these storms may initially be capable of producing strong damaging winds gusts...these storms are expected to weaken as they move into western Kansas after sunset. Based on the latest 400mb PVU timing and location of the mid level baroclinic zone tonight it appears that this Colorado convection should move into west central Kansas well after sunset and cross west central and north central Kansas between midnight and daybreak on Sunday. These storms overnight are not expected.

Little change in the overall weather pattern is expected on Sunday. On Sunday night western Kansas will still be on the northeast edge of the upper high as more subtle upper waves rotate around this upper high. Models continue to advertise that another upper wave will exit eastern Colorado and cross western Kansas. This once again will favor scattered overnight thunderstorm, especially along and just north of wherever our mid level baroclinic zone will be located. Currently based on the latest CAMS it appears that this baroclinic zone further south which would allow areas south of the Arkansas river to have the chance (20-40%) for this convection Sunday night. Once again gusty winds will be the main hazard from the stronger storms with the more favorable area for these stronger gusty winds being across extreme southwest Kansas (west of Highway 83).

As for temperatures late this weekend and into early next week...850mb temperatures will warm by at least 3-5C and as a result the afternoon high temperatures are forecast to rebounding back to around 100 degrees across much of southwest and south center Kansas, especially on Monday. Heat index values currently are forecast to remain below heat advisory criteria but it may be close for an hour or two near the Oklahoma border and east of Liberal. Hot August temperatures will be returning but heat advisory criteria is not expected. Temperatures further northeast will be cooler than these triple digit temperatures and are expected to average between 5 to 10F cooler, especially near the I-70 corridor on Sunday. Reason for these cooler temperatures on Sunday will be due to the expected cloud cover/precipitation chances as our Sunday upper level trough crosses western Kansas.

On Tuesday we will be monitoring a more significant upper level trough crossing the Rocking moving out of the Rockies and into the Plains. As it moves out into the Plains there will be a cold front dropping south into western Kansas . This cold front will not only bring an end to the warming trend but also will bring improving chances for precipitation across all of southwest Kansas. Improving chances for precipitation combined with PWATs improving to greater than 85% that of normal for this time of year may also result in widespread accumulating rainfall from these storms. At this time it appears that our best opportunity for this accumulating rainfall will be Tuesday night with the ensemble clusters indicating anywhere between 30 and 50% chance for 24 hour rainfall totals ending at 7am Wednesday being >0.25. Latest NBM guidance was advertising 24hour rainfall totals ending Wednesday morning >0.25 at 40 to near 70%.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Gusty winds behind an outflow boundary from early morning convection resulted in northeast winds at near 20 knots gusting at time to 30 knots late this Saturday morning across southwest Kansas. These winds will decrease and return to the east southeast at 10 to 15knots by 21z this afternoon. These winds will continue through early tonight when outflow from another area of thunderstorms are expected to spread into southwest Kansas after midnight. This outflow will occur ahead of an area of weakening convection so the chance for thunderstorms at any of the four terminals is low (<20%). The exception will be Hays between 10z and 14z Sunday. As this outflow moves through late tonight the easterly winds will become northeast and increase to around 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots being possible for several hours. Clear skies will give way to increasing clouds at or above 1000ft AGL after 00z Sunday as afternoon Colorado convection moves towards western Kansas.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.