textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Much cooler today

- Fire danger increases Saturday

- Weekend ends very warm

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Much cooler highs are expected today. 50s for the entire FA. The northeasterly winds will start out fairly strong and will decrease in magnitude as the day continues. By dusk, the northeast winds should be light and will gradually become SE by late tonight as a sfc high pressure center shifts off to the east. Fire danger today will be limited. The winds will be there, but afternoon relative humidities are expected to bottom out in the 15-20% range. Burning is discouraged. Otherwise, near freezing lows are expected for Saturday morning.

Zonal upper level flow is expected across the Rockies Saturday. This will result in low level lee troughing with breezy southerly winds and warmer highs. Highs should peak in the 70s near the Colorado border to the 60s across the eastern zones. It appears that NBM minimum relative humidity might be a bit too high Saturday afternoon. Some of the models show more mixing, lower dewpoints, and thus lower afternoon relative humidity during the day. Given the expanding drought and dry conditions, felt it was best to have a Fire Weather Watch in effect Saturday for the higher fire danger during the day. See the fire weather section and the watch for more details.

The downslope/WAA pattern continues Sunday. Highs will end up on the very warm to hot side with values around 90F for much of the the FA. Again, will have to watch the fire danger Sunday given the warmth. The winds may end up a little weaker, however, as the sfc trof fragments farther east. More of the same weather pattern is expected for the beginning of the business week. Long range models and their ensemble counter parts show a fropa possible by Tuesday. The GEFS and ENS ensemble members are in agreement that this fropa will probably be dry. The main impact would be another dip in temperatures midweek.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 526 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through late evening. Strong gusty northeast winds through late morning are expected to begin gradually subsiding generally after 17-19Z as surface high pressure slides southeast out of the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest, then turn east-southeasterly 10-20kt mid/late evening as the surface high continues to track southeast into the Central Plains.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

For today, the northeast winds will start out strong in magnitude and will gradually decrease as the day continues. A limited to perhaps elevated fire danger is possible today. Outdoor burning is discouraged given the wind speeds.

Attention then turns to Saturday. Lee troughing is expected to resume. The net result is breezy southerly winds and warmer temperatures. Felt the NBM relative humidities are a little bit too high right now. Some of the models have a drier airmass with relative humidity around 15% Saturday. Given the continued dry conditions, felt it was best to have at least a Fire Weather Watch in effect Saturday given the higher fire danger that day.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.