textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Record heat expected Saturday afternoon in the 90s.

- Strong north winds and much cooler Sunday.

- Coolest day Monday in the 60s, followed by another rapid warming trend through midweek.

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry over the next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1253 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Mid to upper level ridging and downslope regime will continue to impact our sensible weather across southwest Kansas today. High temperatures are forecast to be near or exceeding record levels. The record high at each of our climate sites are: DDC-94, GCK-86, and P28-94. Some areas may be able to reach the upper 90s, as some guidance continue to show areas along the KS/OK border nearing triple digits. The hot temperatures, with antecedent dry conditions, and slightly elevated winds will also lead to a low-end critical fire weather risk this afternoon. While the minimum relative humidity levels will be as low as 5-10%, the limiting factor at a higher fire risk will be the winds across the area, with Red Flag criteria perhaps only being met at times. Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the entire forecast period to highlight this risk.

Into Sunday, ridging breaks down with a shortwave trough expected to sweep across the northern Plains and into the Midwest. With the passage, a dry cold front will traverse the forecast area, bringing cooler temperatures and stronger winds. The main story will be the winds. Current NBM shows northerly winds 20-30 knots, with gusts 30-35 knots. However, stronger winds will be possible given solutions from the ENS-control and NAM. Expect forecast winds to continue to increase in subsequent forecast updates.

The ridge will amplify again next week, leading to warmer temperatures across the forecast area. We will quickly see temperatures climb back into the 80s and 90s again Tuesday through Thursday. Still no rainfall in sight, with long range global models failing to show any appreciable moisture getting into southwest Kansas. NBM POPs are reflective of this with negligible chances (15% or less) through the entire forecast period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 430 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF period, with VFR/SKC and light winds. After 18z Sat, S/SW winds will gust modestly 20-25 kts, then diminish around 00z Sun. Just after this TAF period, a strong dry cold front will race through the airports around 12z Sun. Intense north winds are expected behind the cold front, gusting near 40 kts, 12-18z Sun.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081- 084>090.