textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Bitterly cold arctic air will remain in place through Monday morning, with continued sub zero lows and dangerous wind chills. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect Tonight and Monday morning. - Light snow will continue with a period of steadier precipitation being possible early tonight southeast of Dodge City.

- Another round of light snow possible Sunday night but any snow accumulation is expect to be 1/2 inch or less.

- A brief warmup in temperatures to near or slightly above average is expected early next week followed by our next shot of cold air late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

This morning, Western Kansas was on the western edge of a dangerously cold arctic surface high centered near the western Great Lakes region. Despite being on the western edge of the coldest air the temperatures at noon across southwest Kansas were at or a few degrees below zero, with wind chills still at or below -10F. Additionally, light snow is currently falling across southwest Kansas as moisture and lift continues to be lifted up and over this bitterly cold air mass. At this time the best forcing earlier today was associated near and ahead of a 700mb baroclinic zone moving slowly into southwest Kansas. This was also near the right entrance region of an upper level jet. Short term models agree that this area of enhanced lift will cross all of southwest Kansas overnight so periods of light snow/flurries will continue tonight until this area of enhanced lift passes.

Additional snow accumulations overnight (after 6 PM) will be less than one half inch across most of southwest Kansas based on the latest QPF forecast by WPC and snow ratios between 18:1 and 20:1, but higher amounts are expected east and south of Dodge City, with the highest totals near/south of the Oklahoma border. The HREF today is similar to the last two runs and briefly brings a period of steadier precipitation across the Oklahoma border into portions of south central Kansas early tonight. This appears to be due to later timing of mid level forcing ahead of a southern branch upper trough moving east northeast across the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Although the best lift is still forecast to be located south of the Oklahoma line, 1 to 3 inches of additional snow continues to be possible (30-60% chance) just north of the Oklahoma line in a few locations across south central Kansas. Based on this additional snowfall potential early tonight and ongoing impacts will continue with the winter weather advisories and winter storm warning until the risk of snow and impacts has ended. Will closely monitor the latest radar trends and the movement of the mid level forcing and cancel headlines as needed early this evening.

As for temperatures tonight...bitter arctic air will remain in place, favoring another night of sub zero lows. Clouds will offer some minor assistance, but lows are still expected to range from zero to -5 degrees. Lighter winds are expected compared to Saturday night, but wind chills will remain firmly in Cold Weather Advisory criteria.

On Sunday, a break in precipitation is expected as the upper trough moves into Central Kansas. There is also a chance for some afternoon sun. Unfortunately, most of any heating will go toward melting snow, so little warming is anticipated. The NBM appears too warm, especially where heavier snowfall occurred. We, therefore, trend toward the lower 10th to 25th percentile for Sunday afternoon highs, aligning well with neighboring forecasts.

Sunday night brings another chance for light snow as an upper level shortwave drops south along the west side of the upper level trough, which will be located over Central/Eastern Kansas. As this system crosses southwest Kansas, a 40-60% chance for light snow will return, but snowfall amounts are expected to remain light, averaging 1/2 inch or less.

As for temperatures Sunday night, the cold arctic air mass will continue to influence southwest Kansas. As a result, temperatures will once again fall below zero by early Monday morning based on the latest guidance along with the -0.7 to 0.8 EPS Extreme Forecast Index and a positive shift of tails. When these temperatures are combined with forecast winds, this will result in another night of wind chills between 10 and 20 degrees below zero. Therefore, the Cold Air Advisory will be extended through Monday morning.

Looking ahead to early next week...Southwest Kansas will see a welcome return to near seasonal or even above-average temperatures early next week due to westerly downslope flow, abundant sunshine, and decreasing snow cover. However, this mild spell will be brief. An upper level trough over central Canada early next week is forecast to drop south into the Plains late in the week, bringing the next shot of colder air across southwest Kansas.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1124 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Areas of light snow will be possible through the remainder of the day at all TAF sites as moisture and lift continues over a very cold acrtic air mass currently in place across southwest Kansas. Latest guidance and BUFR soundings indicating ceilings will mainly range from 2000 to 4000ft AGL with a 30-50% chance for these ceilings to lower into the 1000 to 2000ft range with the steadier light snow. Between 21z today and 00z Sunday the ceilings will lower into the 1000 to 2000ft AGL across all of southwest Kansas. The winds today and tonight will be north northeast at 10 knots or less. Additional snowfall at all TAF sites between 18z and when the snow ends will average less than one inch.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Monday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Sunday for KSZ030-031- 044>046-064>066-077>081-087>090. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.