textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly cloudy and dry for most of SW KS Saturday, with continued mild temperatures. Rain is expected to remain mainly west of US 83 Saturday.

- Rain will make some eastward progress Sunday, but the heaviest rain is expected to remain confined to areas west of US 83.

- At least scattered rain showers will continue Sunday night and Monday as the main trough ejects into Kansas.

- Pleasant mild fall temperatures will continue next week, with no freezes in sight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Midday water vapor satellite imagery clearly defined a strong closed cyclone over SW Arizona. Midlevel moisture continued to stream northward into SW KS, with areas of virga, sprinkles or light rain noted on radar across the western counties. The synoptic regime is stationary, or is only crawling eastward today and tonight, as such forcing for ascent and any rainfall will make minimal (if any) eastward progress into Kansas through tonight. Midlevel clouds will thicken this afternoon, but despite this, mild southerly breezes will keep temperatures well above late October normals this afternoon. Surface observations at noon depicted a strong cold front over northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas. This boundary will make some progress southward into SW KS through tonight with a northeast wind shift, before weakening and washing out through sunrise Sunday.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms over eastern New Mexico and southeast Colorado Saturday afternoon are forecast by models to remain essentially in place through 7 am Sunday, with synoptic eastward translation at a snail's pace. As such, any pops for rain showers are limited to areas west of US 83 through 7 am Sunday. Most of SW KS will remain dry tonight and unseasonably mild in the 50s.

Primary trough axis will make minimal eastward progress Sunday, aligning near the Four Corners by 7 pm. A rich midlevel moisture plume will continue on the eastern periphery of the cyclone's circulation, with again minimal eastward progress, thanks to a blocking upstream midlevel ridge axis over the Mississippi valley. Widespread rain in this moist conveyor belt will make some eastward progress Sunday, but at a painstakingly slow pace, perhaps to US 283 by early afternoon. Clearly, highest pops and QPF grids are correctly placed west of US 83 through midday. Various CAMs and 12z NAM suggest locally heavy rain banding is probable along/west of US 83 by 4 pm Sunday, with little if any rain Dodge City eastward. Instability and lapse rates will be quite poor and limited, with no severe weather expected, and any thunder very limited. South to north training of rainfall bands, with little eastward translation, may increase flooding or hydrology issues at least locally Sunday afternoon. Very clear there will be a very sharp gradient in rainfall totals from this event - much more west, much less east.

Finally Sunday night through Monday, the parent trough and embedded shortwaves will eject into western Kansas, with improving forcing for ascent and shower activity more efficiently spreading eastward. NBM pops remain in the scattered category through Monday night until the trough passes SW KS completely, and subsidence returns dry weather by Tuesday.

A pair of beautiful fall days are forecast Wednesday and Thursday, with both afternoon and sunrise temperatures well above late October normals. 70s will be common both afternoons, with some locations reaching 80 degrees at peak heating each day. Strong south winds are expected Friday, establishing strong moisture return and dryline maintenance, with scattered thunderstorms returning Friday afternoon/evening.

No cold air intrusions are progged by model guidance through the next 10 days, with confidence SW KS will see no freezes for the remainder of October.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1045 AM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

VFR will continue through the majority of this TAF period, with variable amounts of midlayer clouds prevailing. MVFR ceilings are expected to spread eastward into SW KS Sunday morning. Through this evening, most rain showers will remain west of GCK/LBL, but included VCSH for those airports. HYS/DDC will remain dry. Expect rain to spread eastward across all SW KS airports daylight Sunday, with flight categories gradually degrading. Light south to east winds will prevail through the period.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.