textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Afternoon and evening thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday. A few storms may become severe, with strong, damaging winds as the primary hazard. Isolated large hail is also possible with the strongest storms. The greatest potential for severe activity is currently focused west of a Hays to Liberal line both days.

- Summertime temperatures will persist across southwest Kansas through the remainder of the work week, with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s and heat index values ranging from the upper 90s to 100.

- A warming trend possible early this holiday weekend. The latest ensembles indicate temperatures will climb back to around 100 degrees by early this upcoming weekend. Heat index values ranging from 100 to near 105 will be possible on Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Earlier this evening a 500mb trough remained nearly stationary over the western United States as an embedded upper level wave lifted northeast across the Central Rockies toward Nebraska. Across southwest Kansas, a surface trough of low pressure/dryline was located just west of Highway 83. East of this boundary gusty south southeasterly winds and dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 were observed. Although evening convection attempted to develop along this dryline, only high based evening cumulus clouds formed. These clouds are currently dissipating given the improving convective inhibition (CIN). Given the increasing CIN and the upper level trough lifting north northwest of the area, the risk of any storm development overnight now is near zero. Additionally, 850mb temperatures earlier this evening were a few degrees cooler compared to this time yesterday, and with increasing cloud cover across southwest Kansas during the afternoon this kept temperatures in some areas up to 5F lower than yesterday. Despite these cooler temperatures, heat index readings still climbed into the 100F to 103F range, with Medicine Lodge reporting a heat index of 105F at 2 pm.

We will continue to monitor cloud cover potential on Tuesday and its impact on temperatures. Todays thicker cloud cover aligns well with the axis where the axis of higher integrated water vapor transport was forecast for Monday afternoon. Using this as a guide for tomorrow, combined with improving lift and moisture developing ahead of an approaching upper level trough, it appears cloud cover will again affect temperatures, especially across south central Kansas. Given these factors and the 850-700mb temperature trends from 00z Tuesday to 00z Wednesday, NBM guidance seems reasonable in suggesting that highs across south central Kansas will be a couple of degrees cooler than todays. Consequently, afternoon heat index values across south central Kansas should remain below advisory criteria, so no heat advisory is planned at this time for Tuesday afternoon. Across the rest of southwest Kansas, highs in the mid 90s are expected.

As mentioned above, an upper level trough will approach western Kansas late in the day. In addition to increasing cloud cover across southwest Kansas ahead of this system, there will also be an improving chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms based on the timing of this upper wave crossing the Central Rockies, afternoon day instability, and two surface boundaries (weak cold front and a dryline) that will be located over portions of southwest Kansas. The best location for storm development late day will be along the dryline and weak cold front that will be located west of highway 283. Currently it appears that the main hazard from the strongest storms Tuesday will be strong gusty winds given high base cloud bases, inverted V profile and Dcape. Large hail will also be possible early in the event given the steep mid level lapse rates and shear near the Colorado border. As a result, a slight risk for severe weather will exist Tuesday afternoon/early Tuesday night, primarily west of Highway 83.

The overall weather pattern will remain largely unchanged across southwest Kansas through Wednesday. Another upper level trough is forecast to cross the Central Rockies during the day and a dryline will be located across southwest Kansas as the cold front lifts back north towards Nebraska as a warm front. The dryline will once again provide the primary focus for late day storm development. The primary hazards from these storms on Wednesday, once again, will be strong gusty winds and hail, given the steep mid level lapse rates, high cloud bases, and forecast DCAPE. Based on the latest models, it appears that this boundary is forecast to be located west of Highway 283.

As for temperatures mid week...the latest ensembles were in good agreement that the 850mb temperatures will range from the mid to upper 20s which is between the 70th and 80th percentile for this time of year. Also the 25th to 75th 850mb temperature spread of less than 5C each afternoon from all the ensemble have provided me with high confidence (60-80%) that daytime temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will be similar each day. Southwest Kansas can expect multiple days of highs that will range from the mid to upper 90s. Heat index values will be in the upper 90s to around 100.

Moving from late week into the weekend, the eastern upper ridge will weaken as 500mb heights begin to rise across the central and western United States. As this occurs, 850mb temperatures are forecast to warm to near 30C. For early July, this value is greater than the 95th percentile for western Kansas, suggesting that highs will once again climb back to around 100, with heat index values approaching 105 by the start of the Fourth of July weekend (Saturday).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 542 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

The state of the atmosphere has not changed much over the last several TAF cycles, although conditions will change later on this TAF period as scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and overspread west central and southwest Kansas later today/this evening. This will include all four of our terminals DDC, GCK, HYS, and LBL, and will continue to carry PROB30 for thunderstorms for mid to late evening. Otherwise, outside of convection, prevailing winds should remain southerly with VFR flight category as well.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.