textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will continue through the weekend.

- Afternoon wind gusts over 40 mph possible this weekend.

- The chance for precipitation will return to southwest Kansas next week along with cooler temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1146 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Dry and unseasonably warm conditions will continue through the weekend. Earlier today an upper level ridge extended from near the four corners region into the Pacific northwest with a northwest flow aloft present across the Central Plains. A weak cold front extended from west to east along the Nebraska/Kansas state line. Models today, much like yesterday, continue to forecast the weak cold front moving into southwest Kansas through early tonight where it will briefly become stationary before lifting back north northeast during the day on Thursday. Little in the way of cooler air is forecast to filter into portions of north central Kansas behind this front and based on this plus that this front will move back northeast as a warm front during the day on Thursday there will be little change in the what to expect for high temperatures between this afternoon and Thursday afternoon. As for temperatures from Friday through the weekend period the 850mb temperatures trends continue to indicate little change between 00z and 00z each day so afternoon highs in the 80s can be expected to continue as the northwesterly flow aloft becomes more westerly.

Afternoon wind gust over 40 mph possible this weekend. Northwesterly flow aloft will back to the southwest over the weekend as the upper level ridge over the western United States weakens and shift east as our next upper level trough moves south from the Pacific Northwest on Friday into California and Nevada on Sunday. In response to this upper trough establishing itself over the western United states this weekend, a trough of low pressure at the surface over eastern Colorado will deepen and produce a tightening surface pressure gradient across western Kansas. Also a low level jet will develop over western Kansas Friday and Saturday night with the 850 mb ensemble mean wind speeds forecast to range from 40 to 45 knots. These stronger winds mixing down to the surface during the day combined with the tightening surface pressure gradient not only continues to support a increasing winds over the weekend but also suggests that the NBM wind forecast may be a little low. These conditions favor winds closer to the 75th percentile which is 25 to 35 mph with gusts in excess of 40 mph.

The chance for precipitation will return to southwest Kansas next week along with cooler temperatures. A pattern transition will be occurring late this weekend/early next week as the upper level ridge over the western United States today gets replaced by a deepening upper level trough/low by late Sunday/early Monday. Despite some ongoing timing/evolution issues that far out in the forecast period with this developing western United States upper trough/low, the latest ensemble clusters indicate increasing confidence that the on a deeper/slower solution may end up being more correct. Currently 60% of the ensemble cluster has the upper level trough/low over California/Nevada early next week. Given this there still appears to be a chance (low as it may be) for precipitation ahead of this system early in the week as the southwesterly flow develops, however the better opportunity for an accumulating rainfall will be around the middle of the next week as a cold front drops south into the Central Plains and the upper low/trough move towards the Plains. As for temperatures next week...there will be a period of unseasonably cool temperatures following this cold front, especially if we have cloud/precipitation during the day. Much like yesterday the probability for highs from Tuesday through Thursday to be less than 70s degrees ranges from 40 to 50 percent north and west of Dodge City.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1146 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Northeasterly winds at less than 10 knots will gradually veer to the southeast overnight. VFR conditions will be possible over the next 24 hours but a period of MVFR visibilities will be possible at Garden City and Liberal between 10z and 14z Thursday given the moist upslope flow being present around daybreak.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.