textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Low chances of thunderstorms this week include western counties Monday and Tuesday evening, with a better opportunity for scattered thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday evenings.

- Heat will peak on Monday, with afternoon temperatures over 100 expected and stronger south winds. Afternoon temperatures will trend back closer to August normals, in the 90s, for the upcoming week.

- Elevated risk of wildfires west of US 83 Monday afternoon.

- Intensifying heat expected next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Midday infrared satellite imagery continued to highlight a perfectly clear sky with surface observations outlining light winds. It has been another beautiful midsummer morning, but afternoon temperatures will increase noticeably, well into the 90s, as midlevel high pressure begins to encroach from the west. Not as cool tonight, with light south winds and a warmer atmosphere holding all locations in the upper 60s.

Monday is expected to be the hottest day of the upcoming week. A plume of very hot air at 850 mb over the Great Basin and central Rockies Sunday will arrive in SW KS Monday, with 850 mb temperatures as high as 35C. All models show this strong warming Monday, and even the NBM has correctly trending hotter. Added another 1-2 degrees to the latest NBM guidance, with afternoon air temperatures of 100-105 common. Some record highs are expected to be threatened, particularly Garden City, which has a record high of 104 and a current gridded forecast of 103. Fortunately, dewpoints are expected to be confined to the 50s all zones Monday - even the eastern zones - such that a heat advisory (heat index of 105 or greater) is not expected to be required. Monday's heat will be more of the drier, hair dryer/blow torch variety, with a significant increase in south winds. Lee cyclogenesis to near 992 mb in eastern Colorado will sustain a typical Kansas windy day, with south winds averaging 20-30 mph and gusts to near 40 mph. NBM probability of temperatures > 100 degrees, west of US 83, is near 100% Monday afternoon.

A weak cold front entering northwest Kansas Tuesday morning, will make at least some progress southward into parts of SW KS Tuesday. Models disagree on the cold front's progression, with 12z NAM notably the most aggressive. Global models are much slower as the boundary encounters hot air in the afternoon. Regardless, NBM is a good compromise with variable wind directions and a temperature range across the CWA, ranging from near 90 north to near 103 Barber county.

Rain chances through Tuesday are very limited, but not zero. A shortwave rounding the northeast periphery of the ridge will encourage a few thunderstorms to approach the northwest zones Monday evening. 12z NAM/GFS both suggest convective development along the cold/stationary frontal boundary favoring the southern zones adjacent to Oklahoma Tuesday evening. Along with WFO Norman, added some pops to the NBM forecast for this. Rain chances look more encouraging, compared to previous forecasts, for Wednesday and Thursday. With the core of the strong ridge remaining well west of SW KS over the Great Basin, the resulting NW flow aloft will encourage scattered thunderstorm activity Wednesday and Thursday nights. NBM pops in the scattered category were accepted. The ridge remaining west will also allow the heat to remain in check, with afternoon temperatures in the 90s, instead of the 100s.

Expect the heat to rebuild and any rain chances end next weekend, as the summer ridge axis returns to the plains.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 510 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Current south-southeast winds aoa 12 kts will continue through the overnight period, followed by an increase into the 15-20 kt range gusting to 30 kts by 14-15Z Monday morning.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.