textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- The weekend will feature above normal temperatures with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

- More above normal highs are expected for the beginning of the work week with highs in the lower 90s and mild lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

- There may be a chance of severe storms Tuesday evening ahead of a front and downstream of an approaching upper level trough.

- There still may be unsettled weather midweek, however, the brunt of the shower and storm activity may be kept across the eastern zones or even perhaps farther east of the CWA.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

A deepening High Plains lee trough will lead to breezy to occasionally gusty SW winds for the rest of the afternoon and into the early evening hours. The winds will eventually become light southerly through the overnight. These light southerly winds will lead to above normal lows tonight, with values only bottoming out in the upper 50s to lower 60s. We will be solidly in the warm sector throughout the weekend period. Highs will continue to remain above normal with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s Saturday and Sunday. Lows will continue to remain mild with values in the 50s and 60s. No major synoptic systems are expected through the weekend, so the net result of a dry forecast is expected for the next several days.

More downsloping southwesterly flow aloft is expected Monday. Low level downsloping winds are expected as well. The net result is a very warm day Monday with highs in the lower 90s. Mild lows are also expected with values only bottoming out in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Even with the hot temperatures and breezy winds, significant fire weather concerns are not expected Monday as afternoon relative humidity levels will remain on the moderate side.

On Tuesday, a deepening upper level low is expected to move across Utah during the day. Low level moisture will continue to advect northward across southwest Kansas. The combination of stronger winds aloft and increasing boundary layer moisture does spell out the concern for possible severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours Tuesday. Afternoon CAPE values may increase in the 1000 J/kg to 1500 J/kg range, if the front makes it north across Kansas. Bulk shear may be strong enough for supercells as well. We will have to watch where the front will end up, because if the front does surge to the south during the day, the brunt of the warm sector and associated instability may end up across the southern zones and even farther south into Oklahoma and Texas. This is something to watch.

As far as remnant tropical moisture midweek, there may be a starting trend in the ensembles to keep much of the moisture east and southeast of the forecast area. There has been a trend in the ensembles in the last 24 hours to either keep the highest pops across the eastern zones or even possibly out of the FA. This is a second thing to watch and to look if this drier trend in the ensembles continues to hold true.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR is expected through TAF pd. A dry atmosphere will lead to SKC conditions through tomorrow. Breezy/occasionally gusty SW winds around 15 kt with gusts around 25 kt will continue through early evening. Winds will weaken and be light southerly 5-10 kt through the overnight hours.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.