textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Sub-severe thunderstorms over far western KS late Friday evening are moving eastward into a less favorable environment and will likely weaken and dissipate in the next few hours.

- Upper level ridge begins to build rapidly west of the central plains daytime Saturday, but afternoon highs will stay near normal in the upper 80s to low 90s.

- Long term trend is bleak for any noteworthy precipitation chances as ensembles maintain upper level ridging west of the High Plains through at least July 24.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1045 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Radar observations late Friday evening show a broken line of sub- severe thunderstorms has crossed into western KS ahead of a subtle upper level disturbance over the central Rockies. Latest SPC mesoanalysis indicates deep-layer shear decreases to less than 25 kts with eastward extent. This coupled with an increasingly stable boundary layer suggests a weakening trend is likely over the next few hours. This thinking is supported by recent HREF members which forecast all convection to dissipate by 09Z, if not before. The rest of the overnight period will be quiet with Saturday morning lows in the 60s to low 70s.

Daytime Saturday, short range ensembles are in agreement and build an upper level ridge over the Desert Southwest northward to near the central Rockies. Despite the increase in large-scale subsidence over the central plains, models only show 1-2 degrees C of warming at 850- mb. With lingering convective outflow and east-southeast surface winds, the end result will be afternoon temperatures near average with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Sunday through the end of the period, ensembles remain consistent in building the upper ridge further north and becoming fixed in place atop the northern plains through much of the business week. While the good news is this synoptic pattern will keep afternoon highs each day in the low to mid 90s, the bad news is probability of precipitation will be very low (<10%). And this trend persists beyond the long term period as both the GEFS and ENS depict ridging out west through at least July 24, so southwest KS is staring down a prolonged dry stretch which will exacerbate the ongoing drought conditions.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 516 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail with some high clouds. Winds will be light and from the northeast this morning becoming easterly by this afternoon at less than 10 knots.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.