textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Noticeably hotter afternoon temperatures Tuesday.

- The hottest temperatures of the week are expected Wednesday, near 100, with the hottest temperatures near Oklahoma.

- A strong dry cold front will deliver strong northeast winds Wednesday night, followed by much milder temperatures Thursday.

- Another rapid warming trend Friday and Saturday.

- Most of SW KS will remain dry through this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1203 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

WV imagery indicates a northwesterly flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of a ridge axis situated just off the Pacific Coast.

What lingering rain chances (<20%) still exist will shift east into south central Kansas today under a weakening northwest flow aloft as indicated by the SREF. Prevailing southerlies will continue to enhance moisture advection into south central Kansas and eastern portions of southwest Kansas ahead of an approaching trough axis from the west. Despite the weakening flow aloft, peak heating supporting steepening low/mid-level lapse rates combined with sufficient instability will keep alive a minimal shot at shower/isolated thunderstorm development late afternoon into early evening as suggested by the HREF, only showing a 20% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch across a small area of south central Kansas by late evening. A similar setup exists Wednesday, though an upper level shortwave trough swinging through the Northern Plains will help usher a cold front through much of western Kansas by early/mid- afternoon, providing a trigger point for thunderstorm development across south central Kansas late in the afternoon/evening. This is suggested by the NBM indicating a 20-30% probability of 12-hr QPF topping 0.1 of an inch in a confined area of south central Kansas by early Thursday morning.

The ongoing warming trend continues today as a weak surface trough washes out after moving from southeast Colorado into southwest Kansas, allowing southerlies to re-establish by mid/late- afternoon and helping push H5 temperatures a little above 20C in central Kansas to near 30C in extreme southwest Kansas. Considering the HREF paints a better than 90% widespread probability of temperatures exceeding 85F and a better than 90% probability of temperatures topping 90F in areas near and along the Oklahoma line, expect afternoon highs in the upper 80s(F) in central Kansas to the lower 90s(F) farther south. The warming trend continues Wednesday despite a cold front pushing into western Kansas from the northwest by early/mid-afternoon. With the NBM showing a 60-80% probability of temperatures topping 95F across much of the area to a 60-80% probability of temperatures nudging above 100F in south central Kansas, afternoon highs can be expected to push near to slightly above 100F.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 430 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Excellent flying weather is expected through this TAF period, with VFR/SKC, varying amounts of scattered cirrus, and light winds.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.