textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- A small MCS moving out of Colorado late tonight

- Hot and dry weekend

- Hot with isolated storms next business week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1122 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Most of the CAMs show storms developing on the higher terrain of Colorado later today. This may lead to a small MCS moving across southwest Kansas later tonight. Areal coverage of storms is expected to be much less in coverage then what we have seen recently. SPC has a risk level 1 out of 5 across western Kansas. So, storms may produce marginal wind and hail reports. Again, this complex is forecast to be relatively small per the CAMs, so much of the FA will remain dry tonight. Winds will eventually shift SE by evening. These southerly winds and dewpoints running in the 60s will lead to mild lows tonight with values in the 60s, except 70s across south-central Kansas.

The global models and their ensemble counterparts show fairly high 500 hPa heights continuing throughout the weekend. This supports the notion of a hot and dry forecast. Highs both days will be in the upper 90sF to around 100F. Lows will trend warmer, and actually by Sunday morning, warm lows in the 70s are expected for the FA. In fact, Medicine Lodge may only see a low of around 80F.

Low to mid level moisture advecting around the large anticyclone is expected by the models and their ensemble counterparts Monday and Tuesday. This could lead to very isolated storms both days. Coverage is expected to be limited, so much of the FA will remain just dry and hot outside of this limited convection. Highs for the beginning of the business week will continue to remain seasonably hot with values in the upper 90sF to around 100F. Lows will be warm too with values only bottoming out in the 70s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1122 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

MVFR to IFR cigs will eventually improve to VFR this afternoon. Northeasterly winds 5-15 kt will shift southeast 5-15 kt by evening. A thunderstorm complex is expected to march across the terminals this evening onward. Have included PROB30/CB/TS groups to account for this possibility. Visibility may be temporarily reduced in the heavier TSRA.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.