textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Very hot temperatures near/over 100 and strong south winds gusting over 30 mph will create an elevated risk of wildfire spread Monday afternoon.

- A cold front will enter southwest Kansas Tuesday, and meander across the region through Thursday. A temperature range will result: coolest I-70 to hottest near Oklahoma.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday through Thursday with this stationary frontal boundary in the vicinity, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours each day.

- Afternoon temperatures will be held near August normals through midweek, before the heat rebuilds quickly this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Midday satellite imagery depicted a continued clear sky over SW KS and adjoining areas, although widespread elevated smoke aloft was present. Leeside cyclogenesis will deepen to near 992 mb by 4 pm, which will increase south winds considerably this afternoon. Gusts over 30 mph will be common, and the added mixing will facilitate much hotter temperatures over 100 at most locations. Some record highs will be threatened, particularly at GCK (104/1987). Dewpoints will be restricted to the 50s all zones, making this a dry heat. As such, the heat index is expected to be held below 105 all locations, although air temperatures may reach 106-108 west of US 83 this afternoon.

12z NAM forecasts thunderstorms to develop along an advancing cold front along the Colorado/Kansas border this evening, then propagate southeastward, entering the northwest zones at least to a limited extent overnight. Models disagree how far southeast any storms will advance, but with moisture and upper support limited, the weaker/slower solutions are probably closer to reality. Some limited pops were maintained northwest zones tonight, with a low risk of 50-60 mph gusts given the hot and dry mixed boundary layer and inverted-v soundings.

The cold front will sag southward across SW KS Tuesday, accompanied by an increase in midlevel clouds and a northeast wind shift. A strong temperature gradient is expected by afternoon, with specific details determined by exact frontal placement. NBM forecasts a 20 degree range across the CWA at 4 pm Tuesday, ranging from 83 northwest Hamilton to 103 southeast Barber. In between, highs will be shaved back to near normal, in the lower 90s at DDC. The cooler air mass slides south through Wednesday morning, with sunrise temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s common.

Wednesday and Thursday, the strong subtropical midlevel high is forecast to build over the Great Basin, well west of SW KS. As such, heat will remain in check at midweek, with 4 pm temperatures near normal, in the upper 80s and lower 90s. The resulting northwest flow aloft will leave the door open for some needed rainfall opportunities, with NBM pops in the scattered/chance category late Wednesday, and now into the likely category late Thursday. With the old frontal boundary meandering around, and easterly upslope flow, moisture will have returned by midweek, with dewpoints well into the 60s. With some CAPE and shear to work with, some marginally severe wind/hail risk is evident Wednesday/Thursday.

Friday through next Monday, rain chances end, and the heat rebuilds, as the high pressure ridge very gradually builds eastward back onto the plains.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 515 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Current strong southerly winds will continue through around 06-07Z, followed by weakening to aoa 12 kts as a cold front approaches from the north. Once this front passes during the 12-14Z time frame, winds will flip to northerly and be sustained in the 12-15 kt range gusting to 20 kts.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ061-074-075-084>086.