textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected again Sunday evening, but coverage and severity should be diminished compared to Saturday. Coverage will favor the northwest zones.

- Afternoon temperatures several degrees below June normals Monday and Tuesday.

- A wet pattern will hold Monday through Friday, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected each day, especially at night. During each thunderstorm episode severe hail and/or wind is possible, along with heavy rainfall.

- Dry weather and much hotter afternoon temperatures are expected to return next weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 833 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Mesoscale Update...

Shear and instability parameters are favorable for continued storm maintenance and propagation to the southeast across western Kansas. The 00 UTC sounding at KDDC shows a strong capping inversion; but the cold pool is forcing low level air through the inversion. The storms were still somewhat discrete but elevated on the cool side of an outflow surge. Large hail up to 2" in diameter is a concern as long as the storms stay discrete, along with wind gusts of 60-70 mph.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Midday satellite imagery depicted remaining stratus dissolving across SW KS, courtesy of the strongest sunshine of the year. Atmosphere will recover rapidly after last night's MCS, with instability mounting through 7 pm. CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg will be common by late afternoon, with convective inhibition largely removed. Convective initiation will focus over east central Colorado after 4 pm, ahead of a shortwave approaching from Wyoming. Given this triggering mechanism and sufficient instability, global models and numerous CAMs agree thunderstorms will arrive in/near the northwest zones about 7 pm. Supercell structures are expected near the Colorado border, through perhaps 9 pm, before quickly congealing into the next mesoscale convective system (MCS). Pops were increased significantly for the northwest and western zones through tonight along the most likely MCS track. Just like yesterday, outflow winds of 60-70 mph will be the primary risk, with 1-2 inch diameter hail earlier in the convective cycle. SPC 15% severe wind/hail probability remains for this evening all zones, although northwest zones will be favored for coverage and severity.

Models continue to forecast several degrees of cooling Monday, with easterly wind components restricting afternoon temperatures to the mid 70s northeast to mid 80s southwest. Most locations will be dry for most of Monday, but with the easterly upslope moist boundary layer flow, any thunderstorms will favor initiation across eastern Colorado and near the Colorado/Kansas border. Wind shear and instability will still support supercells, with hail the primary risk, but coverage will be limited to these western zones Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday will be a convectively active period, with models consistently forecasting a classic preferred MCS track for SW KS. WNWly midlevel flow will persist on the northeast periphery of a strong midlevel high near New Mexico, with embedded shortwaves aiding daily rounds of higher terrain convection. Models suggest 2-3 MCSs are probable during this period, with excessive cumulative rainfall amounts possible in some areas. NBM pops are already aggressively in the likely to definite category, especially at night. Additional flooding and hydrology products can be expected, with at least marginally severe wind/hail concerns with each MCS. Between wet soils, rainfall and convective cloud debris, afternoon temperatures will be held well below normal in the upper 70s to lower 80s Tuesday through Thursday.

A pattern change is expected by next weekend, with longwave troughing deepening over western North America. Friday will be a transition day, as SWly midlevel flow returns, and thunderstorms remain possible on a dryline. Much drier, hotter air will advect into SW KS next weekend, with rain chances removed and much hotter afternoons in the upper 90s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 549 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Main aviation hazard this evening will be an area of thunderstorms that are currently in northwest Kansas. These storms will track southeastward across southwest and central Kansas. All TAFs have mention of thunderstorms given the chance that all terminals are impacted. Storms taper off late this evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the TAF period with winds around 10-15 knots out of the east.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.