textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm weather will persist through Monday, with slightly cooler air arriving for Tuesday and Wednesday.

- No precipitation is expected through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

A cold front now progressing southward out of Canada will bring a shot of cold air to points north and east of here over the next couple of days. However, 500mb heights will stay high over the plains as upper level ridging edges eastward. Any cold air will be shallow and susceptible to mixing out in the vertical given expected sunshine. And this is not a regime where one would expect low cloud cover and fog, especially in the absence of snow cover. Any cooling will be mainly confined to central Kansas around Hays and Pratt where temperatures may be several degrees cooler than currently forecasted for Saturday; but the remainder of western Kansas should experience highs in the 60s. Any cooler air will get swept away Sunday as northwesterly downslope trajectories from the central high plains and Rockies resume. Thus, expect highs in the 60s to near 70.

An upper level low currently off the coast of Baja will gradually move eastward and reach central and south Texas by Monday night and Tuesday. Any precipitation will remain south of Kansas and the various ensemble means show no measurable precipitation across southwest Kansas. Another upper level system will enter the southwest USA Tuesday and then edge eastward. The model ensemble means indicate some potential for measurable precipitation by Friday or Saturday. Cooler air will arrive by Tuesday and persist for several days as an upper level trough traverses the northern plains and shunts a cold front southward. Therefore, there may be a cold air source ahead of this storm system that could foster lift. However, it is much too early to speculate about precipitation amounts and types, if any at all. If the storm track is far to the south like its predecessor, then southwest Kansas would remain dry.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 419 AM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through late evening. Northeasterly winds 10 to 20kt with gusts up to 25kt are expected to develop behind a cold front pushing south through western Kansas later this morning. Subsiding winds turning more east-southeasterly are forecast by this evening as surface high pressure slides southeast through the Upper Midwest.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.