textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat continues for Tuesday with heat advisory criteria (heat index values 105 and greater) for areas along and east of highway 183

- Thunderstorms followed by cooler air for the mid week

- A stronger cold front in the long term with the effects being felt more into next Monday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

17Z synopsis shows a large ridge across much of the central and eastern CONUS with a digging trough prog across the northwest parts of the nation. A developing shortwave is located along the front range of the Rockies and a deepening 1001 mb surface low is located in northeast Colorado. This has led to a tightening pressure gradient and south to southwest winds at 20-30 mph. These winds along with sunshine have helped to warm much of southwest Kansas into the low and mid 90s around the noon hour.

Tonight the shortwave in Colorado along with CAPE values around 1500 J/kg will combine with a weak frontal boundary and surface low to produce a line of broken storms roughly from east of Pueblo through northwest Kansas. Given the steering flow aloft will be parallel to the frontal boundary the eastward propagation of storms will be very slow through the evening hours and an opportunity for storms looks to be limited to our far northwest zones around Hamilton county. The rest of southwest Kansas should stay dry tonight.

Tuesday the slow progression east with the 700 mb shortwave should bring the weak frontal boundary closer to an Elkhart to Hays line by late afternoon. With southwest winds ahead of the front, sunshine, and good mixing in the low levels we should see temperatures jump back up into the low 100s and enough lower level moisture that heat index values could touch around 105 for areas along and east of highway 183. Due to this a heat advisory is in effect tomorrow afternoon and the heat risk is in the major to extreme category. In the late afternoon the daytime heating and upper level lift should help to form thunderstorms along the weak frontal boundary starting near the I-70 corridor in the late afternoon and expanding south and west through the early evening. The storms that develop will have DCAPE values over 1200 J/kg and modest bulk shear values (20-25 kts) which means the main risk will be gusty downburst winds and smaller hail. With little eastward winds aloft the storms should stay fairly close to the frontal boundary all evening and night long which would bring the best opportunity for rain generally along and north of a Hays to Elkhart line. Towards Wednesday morning with more cold pooling this should push the front eastward along with the storm threat and the rest of southwest Kansas should see better opportunities for rain during the day on Wednesday. With cooler air advecting in along with more rain and clouds temperatures should reach into the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Long term ensembles continue with a large trough digging out of northwest Canada into the northern plains this weekend with a stronger cold front making it into the central plains. Newest thoughts are it will be a couple of troughs with one coming in on Saturday and a stronger one on Monday. Hence high temperatures have warmed a bit on Sunday into the lower to mid 90s and the 80 degree temperatures have been delayed until Monday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1159 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR flight category for all terminals during this time period. Winds will stay breezy through the afternoon and evening with sustained speeds at 15-20 kts and gusts around 30 kts. Winds will back off a bit during the night and then pick back up around 15Z to 15-20 kts sustained with higher gusts.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ031-046-065- 066-079>081-089-090.