textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a low chance of storms across south-central Kansas this evening, otherwise the majority of the area should be dry.

- Above normal temperatures are expected for today and again Sunday. Lows over both mornings will be mild.

- Still watching Tuesday through Thursday of next week. Monsoonal moisture and moisture from Polo could lead to unsettled weather.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Today should be drier than compared to the last few days. An upper level trof will swing out across western Kansas through the day. In the wake of the trof, there should be synoptic subsidence, leading to a drier forecast. The main exception to this is across the warm/moist sector across south-central Kansas. There could be a few storms in this airmass and along a passing sfc boundary. It should be noted that several CAMs have no storms at all across the FA. Otherwise, the rest of the FA will see a dry forecast today. Highs today will be above normal with values in the mid 80s. Lows tonight will continue to be mild with values ranging from the 50s in the west to the 60s in the east.

Models continue to indicate that mid level synoptic shortwave ridging will prevail across western Kansas Sunday. The net result is a continued dry forecast with pops at zero percent. A sfc trof axis will be well to our east during the day. The net result is light northeast winds in the wake of this boundary. For highs, we should still continue to see above normal highs with values peaking in the low to mid 80s. Lows will continue to remain mild with a mix of 50s to 60s as we head into Monday morning.

The synoptic pattern begins to change by the beginning of the next business week. Models and their ensemble counterparts are forecasting a large upper level trof to begin to carve out across the southwest United States. In addition, there could be a tropical feature (right now it is Hurricane Polo) that begins to head north across Mexico upstream of this synoptic feature.

A slug of monsoonal moisture mixed with moisture from Polo start to advect across Kansas by Tuesday. PWATs from both the GFS and ENS are greater than 1.30". This is abnormally wet for this time of year. With this very moist profile and broad southwesterly flow aloft... should help to create an environment that is conducive to showers and thunderstorms and potentially heavy rainfall. WPC does have much of Kansas in a slight risk on the Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Tuesday. There still is some spread in where exactly the heavy rainfall axis will be located in both the GEFS and ENS. LREF probabilities or rainfall greater than 0.50" start to increase, with the highest probabilities stretching from the Texas panhandle, northwest Oklahoma, and eastern Kansas throughout the middle portion of the work week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1148 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

A surface trough axis moving east across western Kansas tied to the departing upper level trough axis will stall out, resulting in weakening surface winds late afternoon through tonight and into early Sunday morning. Areas of fog are likely to develop as temperatures fall to the dewpoint early Sunday morning, especially up around Hays. As such, we have lowered visibility at HYS to 1/2 mile given fairly high confidence in fog development. In fact, 12Z Saturday HREF ensemble shows 40-60% probs of 1/4 mile or less visibility at HYS in the 12-15Z time frame. Areas of fog may expand as far south as DDC, but the probability of that occurring is still too low to add into this TAF.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.