textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- A dry and pleasant weather pattern will dominate southwest Kansas through Monday.

- Warmer temperatures will return to southwest Kansas on Tuesday with highs climbing back into the 80s. These warm temperatures will then continue through the rest of the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Earlier this morning an upper level trough was located over the Northern Rockies. An upper level ridge was located west of this upper trough and extended from British Columbia into Nevada. A cold front extended from Nebraska into Wyoming. South of this cold front there was a trough of low pressure at the surface across eastern Colorado as a cool surface ridge slowly moves east across central and eastern Kansas.

The Northern Rockies upper trough will cross the northern plains today and as it does the Nebraska cold front will drop south into southwest Kansas overnight. As this cold front passes a reinforcement of cooler air will briefly settle into the area late this weekend along with some drier air. This reinforcement of cooler air will not be significant but what it will do is keep temperatures during the day mainly in the 70s with lows mainly in the 40s to lower 50s through the start of the upcoming work week.

After Monday the temperatures will trend upward as westerly downslope flow improves and 850mb temperatures to warm into the 20 to 25C range by late day Tuesday ahead of another weak front that will briefly drop into southwest Kansas mid week. Currently ensembles not showing much, if any, cooler air with this next frontal system as it settles into southwest Kansas mid week but it will keep temperatures near or slightly above the seasonal normal for early October. The better chance for some warmer temperatures to return to southwest Kansas will be during the last half of the work week given the developing downslope flow, warming 850mb temperatures and a deepening surface lee trough over eastern Colorado. Falling pressures along the lee of the Rockies late will also result in a tightening surface pressure gradient across southwest Kansas which will allow gusty south winds to return along with afternoon highs in the mid 80s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1155 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Over the next 24 hours we will be monitoring a dry frontal passage overnight. As this cold front passes the southerly winds at 10 knots or less will shift to the north. Models seem to be in good agreement with this boundary crossing the Garden City and Hays area between 06z and 09z Sunday and then the Dodge City and Liberal areas towards 12z Sunday. VFR conditions are expected until this surface boundary passes between 09z and 15z Sunday . Following this frontal boundary may be a 2 to 4 hour window of opportunity for status (1000-2000ft AGL) and/or MVFR fog, especially in the Garden City and Liberal areas based on the latest models. Chance for these lower ceilings and visibilities are 20-40%.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.