textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot conditions expected area-wide this weekend and into mid- week next week

- Slight chances for storms, mainly in northwest counties this afternoon, posing a strong wind potential

- Rainfall chances remain heightened mid to late week next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 102 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Today will begin the widespread triple-digit heat wave across the forecast area. Ridge centered over the Four Corners region will continue to meander in that area over next couple of days, before pivoting a bit eastward into next week. This will keep us firmly in the grasp of the ridge, resulting in daily very hot temperatures in the High Plains. Given the dry airmass, temperatures are expected to firmly exceed 100 across much of the forecast area through at least Wednesday. The areas that are expected to be the hottest are in western zones and along the KS/OK border where NBM probabilities of 105 degrees or greater is 40-70%, so there is a solid chance many areas will even be 105-109. Expect the hottest days of the stretch to be Sunday through Tuesday. Despite a drier heat and therefore heat indexes may be the same if not even lower than actual temperatures, heat headlines may be needed given the prolonged nature of the event.

Aside from the heat, a high based line of convection is possible to develop across eastern CO and northwest Kansas and track into northern counties later this afternoon and early evening. If this is to occur, given large dew points depressions of nearly 40-50 degrees, strong winds 50-60 mph would be a risk with any convection. Latest 00z HRRR/ARW/NSSL have come in decent agreement of this scenario occurring, so some POPs were added. SPC Marginal Risk has been expanded to include more of the forecast area given the recent trends. Overall rainfall is expected to be minimal given the dry air and some of that may struggle to reach the ground and appear as virga. These conditions could also result in lightning igniting any dry vegetation. Though recent rains in some spots could limit some of that risk. Sunday could see a similar situation, with some short term guidance suggested some convection in eastern CO that tries to get into western zones, but coverage looks to be even more sparse than today. If any storms were to occur, again, dry lightning leading to grassland fires could be a concern. Fire weather headlines were considered to highlight the risk, but collaboration concluded to hold off until greater confidence.

The hot and dry spell looks to come to an end by mid week next week as a pattern flip is expected. Long term NBM and various global models continue to show multiple rounds of widespread rainfall each evening/night from Wednesday evening and into the weekend. Forecasting rainfall with such confidence for the area this far out is always a challenge and garners quite a bit of attention. It should be noted that day to day variability will exist and some areas may make out better than others when everything is said and done, but the pattern does appear favorable for widespread welcoming rainfall. Current POPs in the forecast area each evening and night during the stretch are 30-70%. Specifics on totals and severe weather potential is minimal now, but daily details will become more evident as we get closer.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1119 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period. Southeasterly winds will shift more southerly and increase into Saturday afternoon. Winds are expected to be sustained 15-20 knots with gusts 25-30 knots. Some model guidance does indicate a few storms will be possible into the area late Saturday afternoon and early evening, and could result in locally stronger winds. However, the chance of occurrence at any given terminal is low, 20% or less.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.