textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms for far southwest Kansas tonight

- Numerous showers and thunderstorms expected tomorrow

- Shower and storm chances continue for the rest of the week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1111 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Showers and storms should be confined tonight mainly across far southwest Kansas. Otherwise, the rest of the FA should be dry. Lows tonight will be mild and should be in the 50s to 60s.

Attention then turns to tomorrow. A weak 500 hPa low will move across the state during the day. Moisture advection will occur downstream of this low and PWAT's should be over 1.0" by tomorrow afternoon. The low and the increase moisture will set the stage for the development of numerous showers and thunderstorms. Most CAMs shows showers and storms rotating cyclonically across the region. Practically every member of both the GEFS and ENS all have QPF. They are not in agreement though of where the heavier precipitation axis will follow. The official QPF forecast has the highest amounts located across southern Kansas.

The unsettled weather (but welcomed rains) will continue Thursday as well. A weak upper level disturbance and continued high level moisture will set the stage for scattered showers and thunderstorms. For rain amounts, LREF is showing near 100% chance for 0.25, 80% chance for 0.50", and a 60% chance of 1.00". Flow aloft will remain weak, so severe thunderstorms are not expected though the rest of the week.

Next weekend is still looking unsettled with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures through the week and into the weekend will be seasonable with highs in the 70s to 80s and lows in the 50s to 60s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 543 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

An upper level storm system over the southern high plains will move slowly northward through the period. This will result in increasing low to mid level moisture. Isolated thunderstorms near KLBL early in the period will die off with the loss of heating after sunset. However, as the upper low approaches KLBL after 18z, showers and thunderstorms will increase in areal coverage and CIGS will lower to low MVFR. Farther north and east at KGCK and KDDC, the rain showers will probably hold off until 15-18z when the upper low gets closer. CIGS are forecast to stay VFR and then possibly lower to MVFR at KDDC and KGCK later in the period as moisture increases. KHYS may not experience rain showers until after the TAF valid period.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.