textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and unseasonably warm temperatures will produce critical fire weather conditions across southwest Kansas Thursday afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is in effect Thursday.

- An elevated fire risk will be possible near the Colorado border on Friday.

- Our next shot of cold air returns to western Kansas this weekend along with strong gusty north winds. Highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s on Saturday will give way to highs only in the 40s and 50s on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

With the deep trough moving into eastern CONUS, the synoptic flow above the CWA continues to transition to primarily zonal flow aloft. This is progged by ensembles to continue until around Sunday where there is the next potential system. Current RAP mesoanalysis and surface analysis have a weak surface high pressure system around west/northwest Kansas. As this moves through the CWA winds are forecast to decrease significantly into the overnight and shift to variable directions.

Beyond this passage, the pressure gradient sets up to have a stronger SW wind develop into Thursday. This will advect much warmer and drier air into the area. Highs Thursday will be considerable warmer than Wednesday as a result with highs in the 70s. Minimum relative humidities will range from 10-20% with the lowest in the far western counties. The southwest winds during the afternoon are forecast at 25-30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. These winds exceed criteria and have led to a Red Flag Warning for the entire CWA. Even for areas that may not reach low enough relative humidities, the conditions will promote widespread areas of elevated to significant fire weather risk. Fuels are ripe and ready to add to the dangerous fire weather conditions. Extra caution should be taken everywhere with possible ignition sources and take the usual fire danger precautions. The Red Flag Warning is in effect from 1-8 PM CDT.

Some lingering fire weather concerns will leak into Friday especially for any areas that catch fire Thursday. Winds will be lighter and air more humid so a fire weather headline is not currently expected to be needed. That said typical precautions are still advised. Winds are forecast to be variable at 5-15 mph. Ensembles have the next pattern change in the middle of the weekend Saturday into Sunday. A trough is progged to move across the northern Kansas with a strong cold front sweeping through on Sunday. This will dramatically cut Sunday highs with 40/50 degree weather. Precipitation chances remain minimal with areas Scott City to Ness City and northward at a 25% chance. Areas south of that line see chances that quickly approach zero. Next week will quickly warm back up into the 70/80s with long ranged ensembles having chances (>40%) for 90 degree highs on Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1100 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for all sites through the TAF period. A strong SW wind is forecast to develop around 12Z with winds up to 30 KTs and gusts up to 40 KTs. The winds will ease around 0Z. Some marginal LLWS is possible around 14-15Z, but the forecast amounts are below TAF inclusion levels at this time. Skies will be clear/mostly clear through period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1114 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Critical Fire Weather Conditions on Thursday

A trough of low pressure at the surface will move east of highway 183 by early Thursday afternoon as an upper level trough crosses the Northern Plains. West of this boundary, a dry west to southwest wind will develop. Based on the mixing depth potential shown in the BUFR soundings, these wind speeds will be higher than the current NBM forecast. Also given the mixing depth potential it appears that afternoon humidity values should easily fall back into the teens and even bottom out in the 10% to 15% forecast range by late day. In addition, the short term models also show a greater than 70% chance for humidity values in the teens and wind gusts exceeding 35 mph. All of these factors enhance confidence that Red Flag Warning criteria will be met. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Thursday from 1-8 PM CDT.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ Thursday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.