textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong northerly winds today

- Elevated to critical fire threat today, mainly due to winds and dry fuels

- Another warm trend with continued dry pattern

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2026

05z mesoanalysis depicts strong zonal flow across the northern Plains that is suppressing the ridge that has been influencing our weather over the past few days. Within this quick zonal flow, a subtle shortwave will bring a dry cold front across the forecast area later this morning. The main story with this FROPA will be the strong northerly winds behind it. Winds will be on the order of 20-30 mph sustained, with gusts as high as 50 mph. HREF probabilities for wind gusts greater than 45 mph across much of the CWA is 60-90%. The main impact from these level of winds is increased hazardous driving conditions for high-profile vehicles, and any unsecured outdoor items can easily be blown around. With the strong winds today will come an elevated to critical fire weather risk. More details on that in the Fire Weather Discussion.

After a brief cooldown today and Monday, the ridge will build back into the area. Temperatures will once again soar into the 80s by Tuesday, with 90s reemerging by Wednesday. Thursday's temperatures are a bit more uncertain as it is contingent upon the timing of the next cold front. If early in the day, temperatures will be held at bay, but slower or later will result in another very warm day. In either case, this FROPA will be another dry one. Long range models and NBM still struggle to get any appreciable chances of precipitation into southwest Kansas.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 440 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

VFR will continue through this TAF period, with varying amounts of cirrus. A strong cold front will race through the airports near the beginning of this TAF period, around 12z Sun. Intense north winds will follow the cold front at all airports, gusting to near 45 kts through 21z Sun. Some areas of blowing dust are expected, but opted to mention no visibility restrictions in the TAFs. North winds will diminish rapidly after 21z Sun, and veer NEly. Light northeast winds will prevail tonight through 12z Mon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 440 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Elevated to critical fire weather risk is evident today across much of the forecast area. While humidity levels will ultimately be above critical levels, the antecedent dry fuels and sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts upwards to 50 mph is leading to concern for fire spread potential. Red Flag Warning is in effect until 8 PM CDT to reflect this risk.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ031-045-046-064>066-075>081-084>090.