textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Below normal temperatures today and tomorrow in the wake of multiple rounds of precipitation.

- Convection chances are lower today and Monday relative to the previous few nights, with only our western zones having any appreciable chance.

- The rest of the period will feature a gradual warming trend and decreasing precipitation chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

For the third consecutive evening, the decaying remnants of a loosely organized convective cluster are spread out over portions of west-central and southwest KS, with an outflow boundary racing eastward. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to weaken over the next few hours, and the rest of the overnight period will be quiet with lows dropping into the low 60s northwest to the low 70s southeast. Daytime Sunday, short range ensembles show an upper level ridge initially over the southeastern CONUS will retrograde to the southern plains. However, 500-mb heights will remain nearly static over southwest KS, and with multiple nights of significant precipitation, afternoon temperatures will be below normal with highs in the 80s for most locations outside of our southeast zones where low 90s will be achieved. Convective activity Sunday evening will be somewhat muted compared to the previous few nights, with all HREF members showing thunderstorms develop in southeast CO, but weaken as they approach the KS border. A rogue severe wind gust cannot be ruled out if thunderstorms do survive long enough, but chances are low (<20%).

Daytime Monday, ensembles agree the upper level ridge will flatten out and encompass the entire southern CONUS by 06Z Tuesday. This process will have little noteworthy impact on southwest KS, as only strong solar insolation will drive a minor uptick in temperatures with highs in the mid-80s to low 90s. Thunderstorm activity also appears unlikely as the majority of the HREF members keep our area dry, but a stray thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out favoring our western zones.

Tuesday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles suggest the upper level ridge over the southern CONUS will gradually build northward over the western CONUS. This synoptic pattern evolution will engender a slow warming trend through the end of the week, coinciding with decreasing precipitation chances. At the moment, Wednesday evening carries the highest probability of rainfall as an upper level shortwave trough and attendant cold front pass through the central plains. NBM paints pops in the chance category (25-54%) throughout much of southwest KS, and these will likely increase as ensemble members converge on a solution.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1150 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Radar observations show a decaying thunderstorm complex approaching HYS, with the trailing stratiform region bringing -SHRA to all other terminals. A brief period of MVFR/IFR cigs and/or vis along with strong winds are expected at HYS while the convective line segment passes overhead, but no other flight category reductions are expected this TAF cycle, and winds should otherwise remain light and variable.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ Sunday for KSZ030-031- 043>045-061>063-074>076.