textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong south winds Saturday afternoon with hotter temperatures.

- Thunderstorms expected along and north of K-96 Saturday night, where some may be severe with hail and damaging winds.

- Most of Sunday afternoon will be hot and dry, with more scattered thunderstorms Sunday evening with severe potential.

- Cooler afternoons in the 80s Monday and Tuesday.

- At least scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected every day this coming week, keeping temperatures several degrees below normal, and offering progress toward drought relief.

UPDATE

Issued at 432 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Mesoscale Discussion...

A double dry line structure was evident this afternoon, with the active one on the western high plains generating high based convection with diurnal heating. During the evening the diurnal backing of the low level winds will advect higher dewpoints westward in advance of developing storms. Mesoscale models continue to depict isolated supercellular convection across far southwest Kansas given 40-50 kt 0-6 km bulk shear. Very large hail is the primary concern. That said, 0-1 km shear values are progged to increase to 250 m2/s2 by 02z given the low level jet formation, so an isolated tornado can't be completely ruled out. But the later we get into the evening the less likely this will occur. Farther north an organized cluster of storms along I-70 is likely given the stronger forcing. The main concern with the northern storms is damaging winds of 60-70+ mph. The 21z WOFS run gives a strong signal for damaging winds along I-70.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Midday satellite imagery and surface observations depicted stratus dissolving across eastern zones. Where sunshine prevailed across western zones, instability was building strongly late this morning, with CAPE already in excess of 2000 J/kg. Shortwave over Utah late this morning will advance quickly to near the CO/KS border around 7 pm. Strong lee cyclogenesis is expected in eastern Colorado this afternoon in response, with 12z NAM forecasting a 990 mb cyclone near Limon at 7 pm. CAMs continue the theme that convective development will be favored in the northeast quadrant of this cyclone, near the CO/KS/NE tristate area, 4-7 pm. Most, if not all, of this activity is expected to remain out of the DDC CWA through 7 pm. After 7 pm, 12z RRFS maintains continuity with other models suggesting a bimodal thunderstorm distribution, with a severe MCS across NW KS around 8 pm, and other much more isolated storms somewhere near the Elkhart/far southwest Kansas vicinity. Instablity and wind shear will support strong updrafts, and large hail/damaging winds in both cases. Damaging wind potential will clearly be highest this evening, especially north of K-96 and east of US 283, as the MCS impacts the northeast zones. Wind gusts of 70-80 mph are possible with this MCS through midnight, by which time the MCS is expected to exit into central Kansas. Highest confidence is with SPC 30%/hatched damaging wind probability tonight, north of US 50.

South winds will increase dramatically this afternoon, gusting near 40 mph, in response to the strong lee cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado. This will maintain strong instability across all of SW KS, but models continue to suggest coverage will be much less south of about K-96 through tonight. Highest, definite/categorical pops remain in the northeast zones for the potentially damaging MCS this evening. A low level jet will keep south to southeast winds strong and gusty through tonight, and with high moisture content (dewpoints in the 60s), temperatures will struggle to fall below 70 degrees at many locations sunrise Sunday.

Despite an introduction of light northerly wind components, models suggest more hot temperatures in the 90s Father's Day afternoon. Most locations will be dry for most of Sunday and Sunday evening, but at least isolated storms are expected to develop at peak heating through 7 pm. Indications again favor coverage across the northeast zones Sunday evening, where some storms may produce severe hail/wind.

All model guidance shows cooling Monday, in response to northeast to easterly upslope in a post cold front environment. Afternoon temperatures will be held down, well down into the 80s, several degrees below the normal high of 90. Daylight Monday is forecast to be dry. However, models display a classic summer MCS pattern Monday night, as a shortwave rounds the northern periphery of a strong 597 dm midlevel high over SW TX. Thunderstorms that initiate on the Colorado Rockies Monday afternoon will organize into bowing segments as they track southeast along/north of the stalled frontal zone. NBM pops will continue to increase for Monday night, and expect SPC severe wind probability to increase.

The synoptic pattern is forecast to change little if any Tuesday and Wednesday, with the WNWly midlevel flow maintained over SW KS. Widespread chance to likely category NBM pops, highest at night, were accepted and reflect the expected wet MCS pattern. Each MCS will hold damaging hail/wind potential, and flash flooding/hydrology products may become more necessary with time next week, after repeated MCSs. Models depict a very favorable pattern to significantly reduce drought across SW KS next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Satellite imagery at 15z Sat depicted persisting stratus from DDC to HYS, which will dissolve easily by 18z. VFR will return Saturday afternoon, with strong south winds gusting 30-35 kts at all airports. All terminals will be dry through 00z Sun. A complex of thunderstorms is expected across NW KS 00-06z Sun. Confidence is much higher that these storms will impact HYS, and included a convective TEMPO group in the HYS TAF 03-06z Sun. Otherwise, confidence was too low to mention convection at the other airports for this TAF cycle. Consensus of short term models suggests MVFR stratus building into HYS behind the departing thunderstorm complex, 09-12z Sun. Otherwise, VFR is expected to prevail through this TAF period.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.