textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Despite a strong upper ridge over the central Rockies, afternoon temperatures will be mild today with highs in the upper 80s/low 90s.

- Upper ridge becomes fixed in place over the northern plains through the week, keeping southwest KS dry but highs in the low to mid 90s.

- Long term forecast continues to look bleak for any hope of precipitation.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Late evening water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal a strong 598-dm ridge over the central Rockies, resulting in north-northeast 500-mb flow over southwest KS. At the surface, weak high pressure is spread out from the High Plains through the east coast, yielding a nebulous pressure field across the central plains. Daytime Sunday, short range guidance indicates the upper ridge will build northward as surface low pressure deepens over the northern Rockies, promoting east-southeast winds over our area. Despite noteworthy subsidence aloft and strong solar insolation, afternoon temperatures will be near or just below normal with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Sunday night will be quiet as light winds and clear skies allow Monday morning lows to drop into the 60s.

Monday through the rest of the period, medium range ensembles remain adamant that little to no appreciable change will occur in the synoptic pattern atop the CONUS, as strong upper level ridging becomes anchored over the northern plains at least through the end of the business week. Long term ensembles suggest some slight retrograding of the ridge to near the central Rockies is possible around early next week, but even this evolution will have little impact on the sensible weather across southwest KS other than a slight uptick in afternoon highs into the mid/upper 90s. The good news is the upper ridge positioning will not engender a powerful heat wave for our area, but instead afternoon temperatures this week will stay relatively mild by mid-summer standards with highs in the low to mid 90s each day. The bad news though is strong DNVA will severely limit precipitation chances, and it appears increasingly likely that southwest KS will see little to no rainfall for the next week at a minimum, and likely longer. This will unfortunately exacerbate the ongoing drought conditions.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 544 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail today with mostly clear skies. Winds will generally be from the east southeast through tonight.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.