textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- A slight chance of severe storms are expected east of Highway 183 this afternoon with the best chance further east late afternoon into this evening. Large hail and damaging winds are the main concern

- Severe storms are expected tomorrow afternoon with the best chance across central Kansas. Large hail and damaging winds are expected with a few tornadoes possible

- Another disturbance is expected to move through the area Wednesday night through Thursday. As of now these storms are not expected to be severe

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

A subtle shortwave will approach the area this afternoon interacting with a cold front that is currently bisecting the forecast area. Surface dew points will be in the 50s across southwest Kansas, reflecting only modest low-level moisture advection ahead of the boundary. Deep-layer shear (+30 knots) will be sufficient to support organized convection along and ahead of this front where moderate instability will be observed (+1000 J/kg). Thunderstorm initiation is favored east of Highway 183 with the best chance even further east later this afternoon before pushing into Wichita's area this evening. The primary hazards with any developing storms will be large hail and damaging winds, driven by steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient downdraft potential. Tornado risk remains negligible due to weak low-level shear and low storm-relative helicity. Coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered. Winds will generally be from the southeast ahead of the aforementioned cold front with northerly winds behind this front. Skies will become mostly clear behind this front with partly cloud skies ahead of this front. Highs today will range from the upper 60s north to upper 70s south. Low clouds will increase in coverage tonight as moisture pools into the area. There could even be a few pockets of drizzle after midnight. Skies will be mostly cloudy with lows ranging from the low 40s across west central Kansas to low 50s across south central Kansas.

Tomorrow, a more vigorous upper-level shortwave will advance across the central Rockies and into the Central Plains, accompanied by strengthening southwesterly flow aloft. This will promote deeper moisture return with a warm front moving north into the area by the afternoon. The resulting environment is highly conducive to intense convective development, particularly during the afternoon and evening across central Kansas. Model guidance indicates favorable parameters for supercell organization: MLCAPE values potentially exceeding 2000-3000 J/kg, effective bulk shear of 40-50 kt, and storm-relative helicity supporting rotation. All severe hazards are possible, including very large hail (2+ inches), damaging straight- line winds (60+ mph gusts), and a conditional risk for strong tornadoes if discrete supercells can mature. Convective evolution remains somewhat uncertainsome guidance depicts long-track supercells traversing the area, while others suggest more linear or clustered modes. Regardless, the threat level represents the highest severe-weather potential of the season thus far for portions of southwest Kansas. As of now the highest probability of severe storms will be across central Kansas with lesser amounts as you head southwest. Skies will be mostly cloudy in the morning with clearing expected in the afternoon. Highs look to range from the mid 60s along the I-70 corridor to low 80s across far southwestern Kansas. Dry conditions are expected tomorrow night as the activity moves out of the area. Lows tomorrow night are expected to range from the low 40s across west central Kansas to low 50s across south central Kansas.

Dry conditions are then expected during the early part of the week with a cold front moving through the area Monday with high pressure across the area Tuesday. Ensemble models then suggest a system to move through the area mid week with increased precipitation chances Wednesday night through Thursday. As of now, no severe weather is expected with this system. Dry conditions then return late week. As for temperatures, highs will generally be in the 60s north to upper 70s south Monday through Wednesday with 60s on Thursday and Friday. Lows will generally be in the upper 30s and 40s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1141 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Low level clouds should dissipate this afternoon with the exception of around the HYS terminal where they may hang around through this evening. Low clouds will then develop overnight bringing IFR conditions to the TAF sites. A cold front moving through the area will bring northerly winds to the area with the exception of around the HYS terminal where this cold front isn't expected to move through until tonight.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.