textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong southwest winds Monday gusting 35-45 mph.

- Near record heat Monday afternoon, with temperatures near 100.

- Scattered thunderstorms favoring the northwest zones Monday evening, with the primary risk of damaging outflow wind gusts of 60-70 mph.

- Strong cold front arrives Tuesday, with a large temperature gradient across SW KS (much cooler north, still hot south).

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night, some of which may be strong with locally heavy rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Late night water vapor imagery and RAP objective analysis showed quite a robust shortwave trough centered over Idaho into western Montana with broad southwest flow in the mid-upper troposphere across much of the Rockies into adjacent Northern and Central High Plains. This pattern has shunted the effective North American Monsoon circulation to the east across much of New Mexico into Colorado, with the northern portion of the subtropical moist circulation pattern becoming infused with the polar system moving Idaho and Montana.

The polar system up north will move across Montana into the western Dakotas by Monday Night, and an associated polar cold front will push south across Nebraska into northwestern Kansas by Monday Night. A sub-1000mb surface low is likely to develop out of a broad leeside trough, with increasing boundary layer convergence along the lee trough and especially in vicinity of surface low. Thus, the best focus for late afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be out west across far western Kansas. The majority of CAMs are lined up fairly well with convective signal all along the surface trough, and using HREF ensemble probability of Echo Tops > 45 kft would support the notion for at least marginally severe storms with isolated to widely scattered 60+ mph wind gusts possible. The strength of the convection will be tied fairly closely to the diurnal cycle with severe wind risk diminishing after sunset.

Monday will also likely be the last upper 90s/near 100 degree day for most of southwest Kansas ahead of the front, as Tuesday forecast temperatures will be quite a bit lower, especially north of the Arkansas River (i.e. Dighton highs of 97F Monday, 74F Tuesday). The front will likely bisect Kansas from southwest to northeast, and by mid to late afternoon, there should be another round of loosely organized thunderstorm activity, mainly focused on our eastern and southeastern counties.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1112 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Strong southwest winds will impact aviation operations at all airports through 00z Tue, gusting 30-40 kts. VFR will continue through this TAF period, with increasing midlevel clouds behind a strong cold front Tuesday. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along an EHA-GCK-HYS line by 00z Tue, with a primary risk of outflow winds to near 50 kts. Included a VCTS/CB mention at GCK/HYS for this expected activity, and kept DDC/LBL TAFs dry. A strong cold frontal passage is expected daylight Tuesday, with an abrupt northeast wind shift at the airports. Northeast winds are expected to gust 25-28 kts behind the cold front Tuesday, with lowering midlevel clouds.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.