textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Minimal isolated thunderstorm chances (<20%) in west central Kansas Wednesday evening.

- Trend of temperatures topping 100 continues Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

WV imagery indicates a relatively zonal flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of an upper level high parked across the Four Corners Region. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in extreme southeast Colorado.

A mainly dry pattern continues tonight into Wednesday as the SREF shows virtually no change to the overall pattern aloft with high pressure projected to remain centered across the Four Corners Region tonight before finally dislodging slightly eastward into the Western High Plains early Wednesday. Again, isolated thunderstorm development is likely across the high plains of eastern Colorado late this afternoon as H5 vort maxima ejecting out of the northern Colorado Rockies interact with the aforementioned anchored trough axis and in conjunction with steeping mid-level lapse rates and sufficient enough instability. An isolated storm or two drifting into west central Kansas and extreme southwest Kansas cannot be ruled out later in the evening. Very minimal thunderstorm chances (<20%) return to west central/extreme southwest Kansas Wednesday evening as an embedded upper level shortwave crests a broader scale ridge axis across the high plains of western Nebraska while a surface trough axis/boundary remains locked in across northeast Colorado/southwest Nebraska. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop in vicinity of the aforementioned surface trough axis as H5 vort maxima transition across the region, then spread northeast into northwest Kansas as suggested by most CAMs, potentially affecting areas in our extreme northwest.

The trend of unseasonably warm nights continues tonight as prevailing southerlies reinforce a warmer air mass across southwest/central Kansas. Considering the HREF shows a widespread 70-90% probability of temperatures dropping below 80F, expect lows generally down into the 70s(F) once again. The trend of temperatures topping 100F persists Wednesday as prevailing southerlies reinforce the hot air mass across the area with H85 temperatures ranging a little above 30C in central Kansas to near 35C near the Colorado line. Look for afternoon highs pushing a little above 100F with the HREF painting a widespread 70-90% probability of temperatures exceeding 100F. Similar temperatures are likely across much of the area Thursday, though an approaching cold front may limit highs to the mid/upper 90s(F) in west central Kansas.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 548 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

A surface trough will persist in the lee of the Rockies through the period, resulting in south to southwest winds at the TAF sites. The winds will decrease a bit with the loss of daytime heating around 01z and then strengthen again by 14-15z. However, a frontal boundary will move southward into central Kansas by the end of the period, resulting in winds becoming light or light easterly at KHYS. VFR conditions will prevail.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ031-046- 065-066-079>081-089-090.