textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- An extended period of accumulating rainfall is still on track to impact southwest Kansas from early Tuesday through Thursday night. Heavy rainfall possible, especially west of highway 83.

- Given improving confidence of the potential for heavy rainfall across portions of far southwest Kansas on Tuesday there is now a Flood Watch for flash flooding for Stevens, Morton, Stanton, Grant and Hamilton counties from Tuesday morning through early Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Earlier this evening an upper ridge was located over the Central Plains while our next, significant, upper level trough/low was located near the coast of California. Hurricane Polo was located just west of Baja California. Hurricane Polo remains forecast to weaken after it makes landfall on the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula late Monday and by Tuesday night is forecast to be moving across southern New Mexico and extreme western Kansas. As remnants of Hurricane Polo moves northeast toward New Mexico/West Texas towards mid week the California upper level trough will move across the southwest United States. Ahead of this developing storm system to our southwest there will be an significant increase in moisture to southwest Kansas due to southerly moisture return from the Gulf combined with tropical moisture that will be accompanying the remnants of Polo. PWAT values are forecast to be near 100% of climatology across southwest Kansas by Tuesday. This abundant moisture when combined with the approaching upper level storm system from the southwest will favor an extended period of widespread measurable rainfall to southwest Kansas from early Tuesday through Thursday. Heavy rainfall potential for portions of extreme southwest Kansas will also be possible and is high enough that the weather prediction central has issued an moderate risk of excessive rainfall. This means that there is at least a 40% risk of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a point.

Rainfall Totals. There is still some uncertainty on rainfall totals from this upcoming even given that models continue to indicated subtle differences in timing and track of the upper trough/low and how it interacts with the remnants of Polo. Still taking these uncertainties into account it appears all of southwest Kansas will likely (>60%) receive greater than 1.5 inches from this upcoming event before the rain tapers off on Thursday night. This morning all the ensembles to various degrees are now focusing on the area with the highest rainfall potential to be located west and north of the Dodge City given the longer period of rainfall potential and location/track of the upper level deformation zone and moisture associated with the upper low/trough as it moves from New Mexico on Wednesday into Central Plains and weakens by Thursday night. As a result this is why there is a greater than 60% chance at this time for rainfall totals from this event to be greater than 2.5 inches along and west of highway 83 and north of the I-70 corridor. It is also why a flood watch for flash flooding has been issued for portions of extreme southwest Kansas from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. Elsewhere across southwest and south central Kansas the rainfall totals are expect to be less but do not be fooled because ensembles still indicated at 30% to 60% chance for rainfall totals to exceed 1.5 inches in these locations as well. At this time anyone with plans mid week should be prepared for an extended period of soaking rainfall with period of heavy rainfall being possible. Water issues could develop, especially west of highway 83 and near the I-70 corridor.

Southwest Kansas prior to the onset of this rainfall late Monday night through Thursday night can look forward to one more dry day with seasonal temperature today. Early morning status and fog is expected to dissipate between 10am and noon. The fog 18 early this morning may become dense in a areas west and north of Dodge City given the moist upslope flow that will be present. After good collaboration with our neighbors we have decided to hold off on a dense fog advisory at this time but do not be surprised if a dense fog advisory is issued later this morning.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1148 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Low stratus cloud resulting in IFR flight category continued midday across far southwest and west central Kansas, which is forecast to continue scattering out to eventual VFR flight category. Prevailing wind will continue from the south to southeast ahead of significant, rainy storm system. From an aviation weather standpoint, airports will begin to feel the influence of this approaching system with scattered rain showers as early as early-mid morning Tuesday (initially LBL and GCK). Flight category most locations should remain VFR much of the day Tuesday except in stronger rain showers/isolated thunderstorms with any widespread flight category deterioration to MVFR or IFR not until later Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday night.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for KSZ061-074-075-084-085.