textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record heat is expected today with dry, gusty virga showers or dry t-storms in the afternoon.

- Hot weather will persist through Sunday and Monday with small chances for t-storms, some severe, across central Kansas.

- Drought conditions are likely to worsen given the spotty nature of any rain over the next several days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1209 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

The southern extremity of an upper level disturbance will pass across southwest Kansas this afternoon. A plume of hot and dry air will push downslope as a warm front surges northward into central Kansas. Very steep lapse rates and day time heating will result in dry t-storm development by 2-3 pm in far southwestern Kansas; and this activity will spread eastward into the evening. Given very dry air below a 12,000 foot cloud base, precipitation may evaporate before reaching the ground. Any measurable rain will be spotty at best. Higher moisture levels will reside across central Kansas including Stafford and Pratt; but it is unclear whether high based convection will make it that far east. If it does, then some storm intensification is possible, with large hail and damaging winds. Bottom line is that the chances for measurable rain are very low (<20%) at any given location. Temperatures are forecast to reach into the upper 90s to near 100 from Dodge City south to the state line, with the hottest readings in the lower elevation spots such as Ashland, Coldwater and Medicine Lodge. The record high for Dodge City is 97 set in 1941.

On Friday a southern stream upper level trough will pass to the south of Kansas, with the southern edge of the main belt of westerlies to the north of Kansas. A weak thermal low will be situated near the KS/OK state line, with the hottest air over the panhandles. Isolated high based t-storms may develop again across southwest Kansas, with locally damaging winds being the main concern given the high cloud bases and limited moisture. Again, the chances for measurable rain are 20% or less.

An upper level trough will form over the western United States Saturday and Sunday, with a dry line situated across central or southwest Kansas each day. A weak surface low is expected to persist across southwest Kansas as a result of mid level downslope flow and terrain influences to the west. Synoptic forcing will be weak; but with strong afternoon heating there are small chances for t-storms and these could be severe. The hottest air Saturday will be along and south of the surface low over the Panhandles, but 90s are still likely across southwest Kansas.

T-storm chances are still very small even on Sunday; and given the open trough over the Rockies, moisture will be unable to push into far southwest Kansas. Drought conditions may also be playing a role in the dryness and eastward push to the dry line each day, with intense heat and deep mixing on the high plains. The best chance of an isolated storm is across central Kansas; but any westward shift in the dry line would move the isolated severe storm risk westward. Expect hot weather with highs in the mid 90s to near 103 degrees, with the hotter readings along and just west of the dry line and more moist with slightly cooler readings to the east across central Kansas.

The ensemble means are continuing to indicate a slower progression of the upper level trough and front early next week. The weakening upper level trough passages may not result in a cold front making it this far south until Tuesday or Wednesday. Monday is a potential severe weather day for some parts of the plains, but low level moisture availability remains a concern for the high plains of southwest Kansas. Hot and dry weather may persist Monday, with chances for severe storms confined to central Kansas. Keep in mind that any westward shift in the dry line would shift the storm chances west as well. A cold front will eventually pass through southwest Kansas either on Tuesday or Wednesday, with cooler and drier air to follow.

Summing things up precipitation wise, the various ensemble means indicate several opportunities for rain over the next several days, but mostly to the east of a line from WaKeeney to Dodge City to Ashland. Thus, drought conditions are likely to worsen, especially given the expected hot weather. That said, if mean upper level troughing persists to the west, eventually enough moisture will make it back into southwest Kansas for more substantial rain. The ensemble means and grand ensemble show a glimmer of hope by later next week into next weekend, with a moist, post frontal upslope flow developing.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1102 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

A southerly low level jet will result in low level wind shear early in the period. South winds will gradually subside as a surface trough moves eastward, with winds shifting to the southwest and west. A weak upper level disturbance with steep lapse rates will result in isolated t-storms by 19-20z. Cloud bases will be very high--around 12,000 feet, resulting in inverted-V type thermal profiles. Scattered to isolated wind gusts as high as 45-55+ kts are possible between 19-00z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1209 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

A red flag warning was extended northward to include Ulysses, and Dodge City since the same general conditions are forecast for both. Very hot air will develop by mid-day, with very low humidity. Wind gusts in the 25-30 mph range are predicted. Also, dry thunderstorms are expected after 2 pm and these could have wind gusts as high as 50-60 mph.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ075>078-084>089.