textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower/isolated thunderstorm chances (60-80%) return tonight.

- Unseasonably cool temperatures continue through Thursday.

- Another round of thunderstorm chances (50-70%) Thursday evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 133 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

WV imagery indicates a southwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of a broad trough of low pressure situated across the Intermountain West. Near the surface, high pressure is drifting east through the Upper Midwest.

Shower/isolated thunderstorm chances (60-80%) pick up early in the period as the SREF continues to indicate a series of H5 vort maxima associated with an upper level shortwave ejecting out of the Southern Rockies into the Western High Plains tonight. Near the surface, prevailing east-southeast upsloping will draw moisture into central/southwest Kansas pushing surface dewpoints well up into the 50s(F), increasing instability somewhat with MUCAPE values upward of 500 to 1000 J/kg. Combined with a modest field of +50kt southwesterlies aloft and sufficient lift within easterly upsloping, shower/isolated thunderstorm development is expected across portions of southwest Kansas this evening, then spreading east-northeast into central Kansas early Thursday as suggested by CAMs. However, widespread appreciable rainfall is expected to be minimal at best with relatively weak QPF signals present. This is supported by the HREF indicating only a 20-40% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch across west central Kansas, central Kansas, and portions of Southwest Kansas generally north of US Highway 50 by daybreak Thursday morning.

Another round of showers/thunderstorms (50-70% chance) are expected Thursday evening as a secondary upper level trough drops south- southeast through the Northern Rockies late tonight, and farther down into the western Colorado Rockies late Thursday. In response, developing low pressure is projected to deepen in southeast Colorado, enhancing moisture advection into western Kansas within southeasterly upsloping, pushing surface dewpoints up closer to 60F. Despite the lack of a robust southwest flow aloft (<50kt), thunderstorms are expected to develop across the high plains of eastern Colorado as H5 vort maxima kick out of the Rockies, then spread eastward into portions of western Kansas Thursday evening. This is suggested by the HREF painting a 40-60% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.25 of an inch across extreme southwest Kansas by late Thursday evening. Unseasonably cool temperatures are likely again tonight as easterly upsloping remains slow to erode the cooler air mass across the high plains of western Kansas. With the HREF indicating a 50-70% probability of temperatures slipping below 55F across southern portions of southwest/south central Kansas to better than a 90% probability of below 55F in west central/central Kansas, expect lows generally down into the 40s(F). Increased cloud cover and potentially lingering areas of precip will keep temperatures down below the seasonal average Thursday. Prevailing southeasterly upsloping will help support H85 temperatures a little above 10C in central Kansas to well above 15C in extreme southwest Kansas. Considering the HREF points to a 70-90% probability of temperatures exceeding 60F with the coolest air north, look for widespread afternoon highs in the 60s(F) with near 70F in far southwest Kansas near the Oklahoma line. Slightly warmer temperatures can be expected Friday as low level southerlies become more south-southeasterly, helping push highs toward the lower/mid 70s(F).

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 504 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

A storm system from the west and southwest will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms across southwest Kansas with increasing coverage after 02Z and continuing through 00Z Thursday. These rain and storms will be off and on so the terminals will have periods of drier weather. With the arrival of the rain expect cloud ceilings to fall to MVFR or IFR flight category for DDC, LBL, and GCK after 06Z and HYS after 12Z. Cloud ceilings should have the highest probability of IFR flight category between 12-18Z and then with some breaks in the clouds and ceiling lifts the terminals should be back to MVFR flight category between 18-00Z.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.