textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated to Critical Fire Weather Returns Mid Week. A fire weather watch is currently in effect for Wednesday. On Thursday SPC outline portions of southwest Kansas with a 40-69% chance for critical fire weather conditions.

- A Marginal Risk for Severe Weather will be possible on Wednesday across southwest Kansas. The main hazards will be large hail and strong gusty winds.

- There is a slight chance for severe thunderstorms across portions of south central Kansas Thursday. Area most favorable for severe thunderstorms will be east of Stafford to Pratt to Medicine Lodge line.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1142 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Earlier this morning an upper level ridge extended from west Texas into the Pacific northwest with subtle upper waves rotating around this upper ridge. Over western Kansas the 850mb temperatures at 7am this morning ranged from 14 to 18C which is between the 75th and 90th percentile for this time of year.

Little change in the evolution/track of the upper level ridge over the next several days which continue to support the ongoing unseasonably warm temperatures across southwest Kansas through mid week as this upper ridge moves east across the Rockies and out into the Plains as our next, significance upper level trough/low exits the eastern Pacific and begins to cross the western United States. As this upper level ridge crosses the Rockies over the next 48 hours the trough of low pressure over eastern Colorado will continue to deepen which will keep the breezy to windy conditions ongoing across southwest Kansas. These gusty south southeast winds will bring an increase in low level moisture which will result in a brief break in the critical fire weather conditions on Tuesday despite the gusty south southeast winds and temperatures climbing well into the 80s.

The first item of interest today will be fire weather potential mid week.

On Wednesday a developing dryline will move from eastern Colorado and move into far southwest Kansas during the afternoon, bringing a return of much drier air. There is a 50-70% chance that humidity values will drop to around 10 percent west of Highway 283. This critically dry air, combined with sustained wind gusts likely to exceed 30 mph (>70%), will create an environment highly favorable for the rapid spread of wildfires that will be difficult to contain. As a result a Fire Weather Watch is anticipated to be issued for this area later this afternoon.

On Thursday, dangerous fire weather conditions will continue across southwest Kansas as the dryline surges east toward central Kansas and a cold front drops south into southwest Kansas by late day. Ongoing dry conditions along with gusty winds will once again return west of this dryline and the ensembles continue to indicate at 30 to 50% chance for humidity values to be less than 20% and wind speeds >20 mph. This easily support the SPC fire outlook on Thursday across southwest Kansas. The latest outlook has a 40-69% chance for Critical Fire Weather conditions.

In addition to the fire weather concern midweek, we will also be monitoring the chance for late day and evening convection Wednesday and Thursday.

Convection on Wednesday will be focused around the dryline as low level forcing improves and difluent flow aloft improves ahead of the approaching upper jet. Ensembles this morning appear to be converging on the dryline being located near Highway 83 late in the day with isolated to widely scattered convection initiation developing in this area. Although the environment is favorable for the potential for severe storms (40-60% chance for shear >30knots and CAPE >1000j/kg), the chance for any storm development still appears fairly low (20-40%). Interesting that when you add CIN then the probability drops to less than 20%. Do agree with the SPC assessment from earlier that moisture return may be the key reason for more isolated/scattered storms on Wednesday. Still even with these low chances any storm that does develop late Wednesday will be capable of producing large hail and strong damaging winds.

On Thursday, upper level dynamics will improve during the day as an upper level trough crosses the Rockies. Additionally, improving shear and instability will develop by late day as will moisture return ahead of the dryline as it surges east into south-central Kansas. A cold front will also drop south across western Kansas during the afternoon. Conditions are certainly looking much more favorable for severe storms late in the day; however, all the ensemble clusters place this boundary east of Pratt and Medicine Lodge. Since Pratt, Stafford, and Barber counties will be in or near the area of initiation, the severe risk will be lower but still includes the potential for large hail and and strong damaging winds.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 600 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Strong southerly winds are ongoing across southwest KS, sustained in the 20-25 kt range gusting to 30-35 kts. These winds will gradually weaken through the rest of the afternoon and evening, becoming aoa 12 kts by 06-10Z Tuesday morning and continuing through the end of the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Critical Fire Risk Wednesday

On Wednesday a dryline will develop over eastern Colorado and move into far western Kansas by mid to late afternoon as a mid level jet/upper level trough moves into the Rockies. Falling surface pressures east of the Rockies in response to this approaching upper wave will result in increasing winds and the potential for deep mixing to develop along and west of this dryline late day. The increasing winds and deep mixing will also favor lower dew points west of the dryline which is expected to result in minimum humidity values of around 10% (50-70% chance) west of Highway 283. Ensembles also indicate a 40-60% chance for afternoon wind gusts to exceed 40 mph. The NBM is not forecasting such high wind gusts, but it frequently underestimates wind speeds during these types of events. As a result, a Fire Weather Watch will be issued for Wednesday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>045-061>064-074>077-084-085.