textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures through Thursday

- Increasing rainfall chances Wednesday night into Thursday

- Confidence continues to grow for accumulating snow potential Friday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 226 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

Afternoon observations and analysis show widespread temperatures in the 60s across the forecast area amid weak surface high pressure in the northern Panhandles. These temperatures are nearly 15-20F above historical norms for early January. With continuing zonal flow in the mid to upper levels, expect a similar day and repeat into Wednesday in terms of temperatures across the region. Records appear safe through this period with record highs in the 70s today, and well into the 70s Wednesday. Regardless, impressive warmth continues this winter season thus far.

Precipitation chances will be on the rise later this week, starting Wednesday night, as a couple of waves emerge and track through the central Plains. The first mid to upper level wave, currently situated off the California coastline, will begin to track across the Southwest through Wednesday, before emerging into the Plains late Wednesday and into Thursday. Lee cyclogenesis will occur Wednesday evening, pulling moisture northward, leading to increased chances of precipitation. With the lack of any cold air, expecting this system to bring all rain across the forecast area. The entire forecast area has a chance to see rainfall, but greater chances (50-70%) reside east of Route 283 into central Kansas. Rainfall totals look to be generally less than 0.5" as NBM probabilities of 0.5" or greater are less than 40%. Rainfall chances diminish into Thursday afternoon.

In the wake of the first wave, and just ahead of the second wave (currently way off in the northern Pacific), colder air is expected to settle in across the forecast area Thursday night and into Friday. This colder air will set the stage for the second wave to have a better chance at wintry precipitation Thursday night into Friday. Confidence continues to build that measurable snowfall will occur somewhere in the forecast area, but exact placement and how much is still more uncertain. Solutions like the NAM/GFS/ENSControl show a closed 850-700 mb low tracking just south of the forecast area, favoring more snow, but the SREF and other ensembles highlights a more open wave structure, favoring less snow. Exact placement of the low will also have implications on where the greatest frontogenesis and banding occurs, but those details will likely not emerge until closer to the event. All of this boils down to NBM probabilities have markedly increased for >1" 24 hour snowfall to greater than 60% across much of the forecast area, and probabilities of >2" has also increased to 40-60% chance, mainly west of Route 283. Breezy and windy conditions are also looking increasingly probable with the passage of the system, so some blowing and drifing snow will also be possible. Changes to the forecast are certainly possible in subsequent updates.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 500 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF period, with VFR, variable amounts of cirrus, and light winds less than 10 kts.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.