textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Light, scattered, and intermittent showers are forecast tonight

- Cooler highs until a warm up Sunday

- Potential marginally severe weather near the Colorado border Thursday evening

- More opportunities for precipitation Thursday, Friday, and Saturday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1128 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Scattered showers are currently in place over the eastern and western portions of the CWA. This is supported by a mid-level shortwave trough centered in Colorado. This is ahead of the deeper positively titled trough in the upper-levels. CAMs have more showers entering the northwestern portion of the area into the overnight and into the morning Thursday.

Cloud cover will hamper highs somewhat with forecasted highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s. Light scattered shower chances continue into the day, but the focus is on the opportunity for something organized coming out of Colorado with the shortwave in the evening. The HRRR has held a prominent signal for organized convection while the NAMNST does not. Modeled soundings have deep layer shear of 40-50 KTs and CAPE of 750-1000 J/kg. Current timing forecast is around 6 pm if those storms occur. Both marginal hail and winds are possible. Even if the organization does not materialize, scattered showers, especially in the northwestern zones, are forecast.

Friday's forecast will resemble Thursday a great deal albeit warmer. Light, scattered showers in the morning with highs in the 70s. By afternoon/evening, a marginal severe weather risk is present only this time near the KS/OK border. Most of the organized convection is progged in Oklahoma, but the NAMNST has some storms reaching into Kansas. Less shear is present, but modeled soundings have steep lapse rates and CAPE values up to 1500 J/kg with marginal winds as the primary threat. After the potential severe threat, light and scattered showers are expected.

Ensembles have Saturday being wetter and wetter with now a 30-40% chances for more showers. More precipitation and highs in the 70s before the pattern changes into Sunday. With how light and scattered showers will manifest, details are sparse.

On Sunday without significant cloud cover obscuring SW Kansas, highs are forecast to jump well into the 80s. The next few days will hold this trend with highs slowly increasing into the 80s and approaching the 90s by the end of the week. Ensembles also have a 20-40% chance of precipitation returning to SW Kansas Tuesday and into Wednesday. Outside of the precipitation, no weather headlines are expected in the forecast period. Temperatures will be seasonal, no days with particularly high winds, and relative humidity minimums above 25% quelling nearly all fire weather risk.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 520 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

A moist upslope southeasterly flow, currently at less than 10 knots, is expected to increase to 10 to 15 knots after 18Z as surface pressures fall along the lee of the Rockies. This flow will maintain the current low level moisture/ceilings across southwest Kansas. As a result ceilings will remain below 1000 ft AGL through at least 15Z today. As the southeast winds increase later this morning the ceilings will rise to 2000 to 3000 ft AGL between 18 and 21z today. Fog across southwest Kansas is expected dissipate with visibilities improving to 6 miles or more between 15Z and 18Z today.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.