textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Accumulating rainfall event is still on track for southwest Kansas with many areas receiving 0.25-0.5 inch of rain with localized amounts of 1 inch or more possible

- A few wet snowflakes are possible along the Colorado border Wednesday morning...accumulations are not anticipated

- High probability of a frost or freeze for areas along and west of highway 83 with increasing probabilities of frost to highway 283 for Thursday morning

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1246 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

18Z synopsis shows a digging trough across both the northern plains and near the Pacific coast. A strong cold front came through earlier in the morning and strong cold air advection, cloud cover, and northeast winds has kept the diurnal heating at bay. A few spotty rain showers developed this morning but for the most part the rainfall has been kept at bay to this point.

The rainfall forecast should change as we go into the evening and overnight hours. WIth the approaching troughs in the desert southwest and the northern plains we should see stronger mid level lift starting in northwest Kansas this evening. This lift will also be accompanied with upslope winds at the surface. This area of lift and rain should start to move to the southeast and overspread much of southwest Kansas between midnight and sunrise. Temperatures for the most part should stay above freezing however a few short term models have a 2-3 hour stretch of temperatures around 30-32 mainly along and west of a Syracuse to Scott City line. Ground accumulations are not anticipated due to the warm ground and the short amount of time the snow is forecast to fall however the snow that does fall could amount to a couple tenths if the snowfall could stick.

Wednesday much of the day will be socked in with cloud cover, east winds and rain showers. This will lead to a day of very little warming especially in our central and eastern zones. Highs are forecast to only reach the mid 40s which is pretty cold for early May. Pockets of rain showers will continue through the afternoon ans the upper level trough progresses to the east and a series of 700 mb shortwaves move through central and western Kansas. The highest amounts of rain should fall between midnight-6pm Wednesday with probabilities of 0.25-0.5 inches of rain highest (50-90%) along and west of a Johnson to Dodge City to Hays line. 1 inch potential is also in the forecast mainly along and north of a Syracuse to WaKeeney line (20-40%). Farther to the south and east the amount of lift and moisture is forecast to be less so 0.1-0.25 inch is expected from a Liberal to Pratt line.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning the exiting trough will lead to NVA and this should intensify a surface high by sunrise. Clouds, wind and rainfall should diminish after midnight and by sunrise we should have enough time with radiational cooling to have temperatures fall to 32 degrees or less especially along and west of highway 283. A 50-100% probability of temperatures 32 degrees or less exist there. As you get closer to the Colorado border the probability of a freeze is the greatest as forecast lows of 25-29 degrees are in the forecast along and west of highway 83. The cold air shouldn't last long as a building ridge in the west will bring in milder air during the day on Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 628 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Aviation weather will continue to deteriorate tonight as a cold and wet storm system takes aim on western Kansas. All four southwestern Kansas airports (DDC, GCK, HYS, and LBL) will see at least some rain with worst of aviation weather and IFR flight category from pre-dawn Wednesday through the early afternoon hours Wednesday. Periodic LIFR flight category can also be expected at times, particularly GCK and DDC, as ceiling will probably fall to below 500 feet at times, especially during periods of steadier rainfall. Flight category will slowly improve toward the end of this TAF period (00Z Thursday) as the storm system pulls away from western Kansas.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>087.