textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Clear and cold Monday morning with a widespread hard freeze in the teens.

- Sunny and cool, with temperatures well below mid March normals Monday, but with much less wind.

- A rapid warming trend is expected this week, with record or near record highs in the lower 90s Thursday through Saturday afternoons.

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry for the foreseeable future, at least through the next 10 days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Strong cold advection and dry advection were in progress Sunday evening. Strong cold surface high pressure ridging will build southward directly over SW KS through sunrise, with a 1032 mb surface high expected at 7 am Monday. Winds will continue to diminish through the night, but models indicate a light NW wind will be maintained through sunrise. This will deter radiational cooling to an extent, but cold/dry advection alone will allow for widespread air temperatures in the teens at 7 am. Indeed, the forecast lows of 12-15 from Garden City to Dodge City are only a few degrees above record lows for March 16, around 9 degrees. This is certainly modified arctic air, with 00z NAM forecasting 850 mb temperatures near -10C, and precipitable water near 0.10 inch Monday morning. Fully expect our coldest locales in the northwest zones will fall below 10 degrees. With the continued light NW wind, wind chills will be near zero sunrise Monday.

High pressure weakens and translates southeast Monday, but the atmosphere will be slow to recover today. Temperatures will struggle through the 40s, well below March normals, but with much less wind it will be much more pleasant than Sunday.

A highly amplified synoptic pattern over North America on Monday, with a 510 dm cyclone over the Great Lakes and a 590 dm ridge on the California coast, will deamplify through this week, as the California upper high strengthens and expands eastward. This will be a historically, anomalously strong mid level anticyclone, with 500 mb heights peaking around 597 dm over Arizona by Thursday. SW KS will reside on the northeast periphery of the building ridge, with strong subsidence through Saturday, with few clouds and zero chance of precipitation. Heights, thickness and 850 mb temperatures will climb daily, with model consensus currently suggesting the peak of the March heatwave will be Saturday. MEX guidance forecasts a high of 94 at DDC March 21; as it turns out, the record high at DDC for March 21 is 94, a record that has stood since 1907. NBM has been correctly forecasting the heatwave for many runs, but given how unusual this is, so early in spring, NBM is probably not warm enough. Mid 90s should be common Saturday afternoon, especially with any prefrontal SWly downslope compression, and our warmest southwest locations may flirt with 100 degrees. The lack of recent precipitation, and the lack of moisture this week, will continue to dry out the topsoils, further encouraging the record warmth.

Medium range models are in agreement that the next dry cold front passage will occur next Sunday, bringing relief from the March heat with strong northeast winds. However, the 6-10 day outlook from the CPC suggests that this cooling will be temporary, with a 90% probability of above normal temperatures March 21-25.

Southwest Kansas will remain dry for the foreseeable future, through at least the next 10 days. Most guidance suggests no rain or snow in, or even near, SW KS through March 30th.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Excellent flying weather has returned for this TAF period, with VFR/SKC and light winds. Light NW winds will prevail for much of the period, generally less than 15 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 112 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Unseasonably cool, dry air will be in place Monday. Despite afternoon temperatures being well below normal, relative humidity will still fall to 15-20% with dry air in place this afternoon. Winds will be much, much lighter than Sunday, precluding most fire danger concerns. Northwest winds will generally remain less than 15 mph.

A rapid warming trend is expected this week, with near record warmth expected Thursday through Saturday afternoons. This will keep minimum relative humidity near or below red flag criteria each afternoon through Saturday. However, winds are expected to remain relatively light.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.