textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical to low-end critical fire weather risk today

- Very low-end, conditional Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms in south-central Kansas this afternoon/evening

- Saturday to feature severe weather risk, primarily eastern zones

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1252 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

05z mesoanalysis depicts a trough situated across the Rockies. This system will be the driving factor for weather across the forecast area today. The increasing flow into the central Plains will push the dryline much farther east than it was yesterday, potentially fully clearing the forecast area. This will allow minimum RHs to plummet across the entire area. While winds will be much lighter than they were yesterday, at least near critical fire weather risk is evident. See fire weather section for more details.

The main surface low associated with the trough will be tracking across the far northern Plains this morning into central Canada throughout the day. Its attendant cold front will stretch into Kansas, where a weak surface low along it will reinforce the push eastward. This front will be the main focus for the potential for severe convection. However, pattern recognition, and continued support by latest 00z CAM guidance, suggests nearly all convection will be east of the forecast area. There is a very low chance (20% or less) for a storm to occur on the dryline/cold front intersection in our far eastern counties late this afternoon and early evening, and those chances are likely even generous. However, should a storm develop, it would have a favorable environment just ahead of the boundaries for a localized severe storm with large hail and damaging wind gusts. Any storm will be short lived in the forecast area given a lack of residence time. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) is in place to highlight this very low risk.

The cold frontal passage later today will push through and clear out any storm chances, leaving for a very pleasant Friday. High temperatures are expected to be in the middle 70s, with lighter northeast winds shifting southeasterly through Friday afternoon. Thunderstorm potential will reemerge Saturday as a warm front approaches the area. Along and just south of the warm front, bulk shear 40-50 knots and MUCAPE increasing to over 2,000 J/kg indicate a severe weather potential could be realized. The greatest potential will exist in eastern portions of the forecast area. In such scenario, some significant severe weather would be possible, but specifics on exact hazards and intensity is still quite uncertain.

Until this southwest wave clears the area,storm chances will continue to exist into Sunday. Though early indications show the forecast area will be on the western fringes of the greatest severe weather potential again. Either way, this weekend will need to be monitored for severe weather potential.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1109 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Some low-level stratus has emerged across central Kansas this evening and have begin impacting HYS. Expect continued MVFR conditions there through about 09z. Some of that lower stratus deck may also back into DDC, but chances are low, so keeping them in VFR for now. VFR conditions will be expected throughout the rest of the TAF period at all TAF sites throughout Thursday afternoon and evening. Expect southerly winds this evening and early overnight to shift northerly form 09-13z. Winds will diminish into Thursday morning and afternoon to 10-15 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1256 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Red Flag Warning in effect for portions of southwest Kansas today. Dryline will push farther east, leading to most of the area seeing minimum RH values dropping to less than 15% area wide. Winds will be weaker than they were yesterday, with generally northerly winds 10-15 mph with gusts occasionally up to 30 mph. With the lighter winds and low relative humidity, expect at least near critical fire weather conditions today.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Thursday for KSZ061-074>076-084>089.