textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Decreasing clouds and cooler Mother's Day afternoon.

- Dry weather with a rapid warming trend Monday through Thursday.

- Hot and windy Thursday, approaching 100 degrees with strong south winds and critical wildfire risk.

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry this week, with drought conditions persisting and expanding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Satellite imagery depicted a strong shortwave over SW KS at midday. Strong subsidence behind this departing shortwave will clear the sky rapidly this afternoon, allowing temperatures to rebound into the 60s, several degrees below normals for mid May.

Winds will trend light and variable after sunset through sunrise Monday, in response to 1025 mb surface ridging building over the plains. Strong radiational cooling will result, with well below normal temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s expected at 7 am Monday. Return flow establishes quickly Monday, with breezy south winds by afternoon. All models show strong warming, easily into the lower 80s.

Further warming is expected Tuesday, with afternoon temperatures into the lower to mid 90s across central and southern zones, especially adjacent to Oklahoma. Exact temperatures will be modulated by the placement and timing of a weak cold front and northeasterly wind shift that is forecast to reach the Oklahoma border by 7 pm Tuesday. This boundary will be dry with no impacts, just the northeast wind direction change.

Strong midlevel high pressure near 591 dm over New Mexico Tuesday will migrate into Texas Wednesday, with the northern extension of the ridge axis building across the Rockies and onto the plains. This synoptic evolution will ensure a simple forecast, with sunny dry weather and increasing southeast winds through sunset Wednesday.

The next shortwave through over northern California 7 pm Wednesday is modeled to arrive near Salt Lake City at 7 pm Thursday. This process will weaken the ridge axis, and push it east of SW KS, allowing for much stronger lee troughing and strong south winds. 850 mb wind fields are near 40 mph, so gusts of that caliber are expected in a hot, well-mixed boundary layer. Still, moisture return appears quite weak, especially for mid May, and the combination of this reduced instability and a strong capping inversion will make any convective initiation on the diffuse dryline very difficult. If any storms managed to form Thursday at peak heating, they would favor the western zones, but being high based would produce little if any rainfall. NBM continues to trend hotter Thursday, with 4 pm temperatures of 97-100 all zones. The record high at DDC for May 14th is 97, and this should be reached easily.

Rockies shortwave will track to the Missouri valley by Friday evening, a northerly track that would keep any rainfall and severe weather risk well north of SW KS.

Unfortunately, the entire forecast Monday through Friday this week is dry for all of SW KS, and the ongoing severe to extreme drought will continue to intensify and expand. Hot windy afternoons such as Thursday will only magnify this process. We are entering the climatological wettest time of year for SW KS, and to see dry stretches, such as that forecasted into mid May, is concerning regarding drought management concerns.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 543 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period as a weak surface high pressure system moves overhead with clear skies. Winds are expected to remain mostly light and variable for the first half of the period. Around the middle at 7-13Z, winds will slowly strengthen out of the south/southwest up to 15KTs.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.