textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow this morning with most areas up to one-half inch accumulation. I-70 corridor likely little or no snow with an inch to inch and a half possible around Lakin-Garden City area.

- Significant pattern change toward much colder temperatures Friday and Saturday. 10th percentile NBM shows Friday afternoon temps in the teens with lows around 0 degrees (F)

- Light to moderate snow accumulations possible, accompanying the arctic air, however potential for a major winter storm impacting southwest Kansas, specifically, is quite low.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 306 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Overnight synoptic meteorological setting comprised of a large longwave trough centered across the northeastern half of the CONUS. Western Kansas found itself on the northwest flow side of the broadly cyclonic jet stream pattern. Within the continental scale circulation regime were several embedded shortwave troughs rotating through the pattern. One of which was moving south-southeast from Wyoming and Black Hills region into Colorado and Nebraska. A subtle jet streak in the upper troposphere (~250mb) from western Nebraska into northwestern Missouri will continue to pivot around toward the southern portion of the larger scale pattern, and this will keep west central and southwest Kansas in favorable right-entrance region of the jet streak, effectively enhancing mid-level frontogenesis (fgen) forcing for ascent. RAP13 analysis fields showed 700mb fgen axis from east central CO into adjacent far west central KS, and unsurprisingly, this is the region of enhanced radar echo with associated light snow observations from Limon to Burlington, CO down toward Leoti, KS.

Much of the numerical weather prediction show the 700mb deformation axis and baroclinic zone strengthening as it moves southeast toward southwest Kansas through mid-morning. The maturing of this 700mb fgen axis will be fleeting, however, as the overall upper jet structure supporting the mid level fgen will move rapidly eastward through the pattern during the day Monday. Thus, banded snow, mainly light will last at any one location for only a few hours. The 3D structure of the fgen is not all that well organized, really only enhanced around 700mb (quite shallow), and for that reason, precipitation (snow in this case) rates will be quite low. Over the past several model cycles, the ECMWF and Global Canadian control runs have been quite consistent in placement of 0.05 to 0.10" QPF fields over a 12-hr period from roughly Tribune, KS east- southeastward toward Dodge City. This QPF axis fits the 700mb fgen quite well, and thus the official QPF will reflect this fairly good model continuity. NBM Mean Snow Ratio fields have snow-to-liquid ratios (SLR) peaking during the event around 15 to even 16:1, thus 0.10" QPF would support around an inch and a half of snowfall. This would be about the peak snowfall potential with this system over a fairly narrow corridor for the meteorological reasons mentioned above. Since there is rather low confidence in anything higher than about an inch and a half of snow where the heaviest amounts are forecast, we will not issue any winter headlines.

By midday today, the event will quickly come to an end and we will likely see clouds part with sun returning. Since western Kansas will only be seeing a glancing shot (and brief at that!) of arctic air, the quick return to westerly downslope winds by late afternoon (along with direct insolation) will allow temperatures to warm back up to mid to upper 30s (warmest farther northwest). On Tuesday, we will be right back to downslope warming ahead of the next shortwave trough within the larger circulation, so we should easily see afternoon temperatures Tuesday well into the 50s. This will likely be the warmest day of the 7-day period as we will see another quick- hitting cold front late Tuesday Night. Wednesday and Thursday will be a transition period before a large-scale jet stream shift. The pattern shift will comprise of a diving jet south down the Pacific Northwest region, phasing with a weak southern stream upper low moving into southern California late Thursday. A massive reservoir of arctic air will develop across southern Canada into the Northern Plains, and given the next jet core being farther west, a significant portion of this brutally cold air mass will push farther southwest than previous systems. There is now rather high confidence in an arctic air outbreak encompassing much of the eastern two- thirds of the CONUS.

Friday and Saturday temperatures continue to trend downward as ensemble systems come into better alignment of the magnitude of the upstream air mass. The NBM is most likely not done "catching up" to this major pattern chance and magnitude of cold air, so would not be surprised to see temperatures on Friday and/or Saturday being close to the current NBM 10th percentile. NBM 10th percentile afternoon temperatures Friday afternoon are in the mid-upper teens across the western half of Kansas with lows around 0F Saturday morning. There will be some pretty decent northeast winds as this punishing air mass moves in Friday into early Saturday, so Wind Chills are probably going to approach or go below -15F (Cold Weather Advisory criteria). So, once we are done with today's light snow event, we will likely begin messaging the upcoming cold event (along with snow potential) focused on Friday and Saturday, so keep checking back for updates.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1042 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

As some light snow and cloud cover exits the area, VFR conditions are expected for all terminals through the TAF period. Winds will start primarily light and variable with a weak high pressure system north of the forecast area. Winds are forecast to strengthen out of the southwest as clear skies take over around 21Z. That weather will more or less prevail through the rest of the TAF period.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.