textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Overnight storms possible tonight mainly in the northern and western zones

- Heat continues into Thursday with highs around 100 and heat index values as high as 107

- A stronger cold front Thursday night will lead to storms in north central Kansas and cooler temperatures for the weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

17z synopsis shows an upper level 596 dm high centered over New Mexico with a shortwave trough rotating through the northeast quadrant of the high. This wave has led to some spotty rain showers this morning mainly around Hays to Medicine Lodge. Morning clouds have subdued the temperatures a bit however as the wave moved out skies have been clearing from west to east and noon temperatures have risen into the upper 80s.

Tonight another round of storms will develop in the Colorado Rockies as a shortwave develops on the northern side of the upper high and will move southeast through the night. Model updates have shown the upper high to stay more to the south and west which would allow the storms a better opportunity to make it to western Kansas after midnight. Short term models also show the better lower level moisture and atmospheric instability to be along and north of a Syracuse to Hays line and as a result 30-40% POPs will be included for these areas between midnight and sunrise.

Thursday the heat will have some uncertainty as any storms that are in the area should leave a cloud deck through the morning hours. Once the storms decay by the late morning a warm front will lift through western Kansas and allow temperatures to rise quickly after the noon hour. Models show afternoon 850 temps to rise around 30 (C) which should help to get surface temperatures to 100 degrees for much of the CWA. NBM probability of MaxT greater than 100 ranges from 50-70% from a Scott City to Hays line to near 100% from Hugoton to Medicine Lodge. As a result a heat advisory will be in effect from Seward to Barber county given the lower level moisture should help to get heat index values to near 105.

Thursday night into early Friday morning the upper level high should shift to the southwest as stronger trough in the northern plains starts to dive to the southeast. With this trough a stronger cold front for this time of year should move through Nebraska during the day. A thunderstorm complex will break out along the front and dive into north central Kansas by late Thursday night. With the hot temperatures and lower level moisture from the day before and modest instability ahead of the front some of the storms in north central Kansas could contain damaging winds and a marginal risk is in effect from WaKeeney to St. John. Storms should rapidly move southeast through the night as models have picked up on a quicker passage of the cold front. By sunrise Friday the front should be near the Oklahoma border. Highs on Friday should be noticeably cooler from Thursday with lower 90s in the north to the upper 90s along the Oklahoma border.

Long term ensemble trends keep the core of the hotter air locked into the Rockies for the weekend so we should expect dry conditions and highs in the 90s both days. Early next week the upper high shifts to the east and the hotter air should return to much of western Kansas.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 502 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Convection from eastern Colorado will move into southwest Kansas after 10pm. As these storms progress across southwest Kansas overnight they will weaken and become more isolated. The probability of storms at any of the TAF sites remains low (less than 30%) with the highest likelihood at Garden City and Hays. VFR ceilings are expected with and ahead of these thunderstorms with bases as low as 500ft AGL. East to southwest winds overnight and Thursday will be at 10 to 15 knots.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ081-088>090. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ086>090.