textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Widely scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm later today. Areal coverage should generally be less than what we have seen recently.

- A dry forecast over the weekend. Temperatures look to trend to be near or even above normal.

- Watching for the potential of more monsoonal moisture (and perhaps mixed with remnant tropical disturbance moisture) next week... This may result in potentially more unsettled weather for the next business week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Late evening KDDC WSR-88D shows considerably less showers across southwest Kansas just before midnight. The shower and storm activity that impacted us earlier has moved well to the east across eastern Kansas. With that being said, we are watching the next slug of showers that are moving across the southern High Plains. This activity may impact southwest Kansas later in the morning, although confidence is not high on this. Speaking of confidence, a general perusal of 00Z CAM data shows considerable disagreement in shower evolution over the next 18 or so hours. Despite this uncertainty, examining the atmosphere still shows a very moist profile. Our 00Z RAOB measured a PWAT of 1.62". Looking at SPC PWAT climo, this is still well above the daily max of 1.34". The normal PWAT for this time of year is at a much lower 0.77". Considering this, it should still be easy for the atmosphere to squeeze out shower activity. Therefore, putting this all together, will continue with the fairly high pops for this afternoon. A mid level trof will be in close proximity to western Kansas this afternoon, so logic would state that there should be an west to east pop gradient, as this mid level feature start to clear the FA. Indeed, the NBM pops are advertising this, which looks meteorologically cohesive. The main threat with this activity is moderate to heavy rainfall. WPC has us in a marginal risk in the Excessive Rainfall Outlook for today, with the higher probabilities shifted east across the FA. Otherwise, outside of this widely scattered activity, a generally drier forecast is expected for the remaining FA.

Both deterministic models as well as their ensemble counterparts are forecasting shortwave ridging developing across the greater region over the weekend. This would support the notion of a drier and warmer forecast. Highs for Saturday and Sunday should peak in the lower to mid 80s. Lows should be fairly mild, and likely to be above normal with values only bottoming out in the mix of 50s to 60s.

By Monday, we should be in between weather systems with the main focus this morning will be afternoon convection and fog/low clouds this morning. Highest probability for early morning stratus with ceilings below 500 ft AGL will be in the Hays and Garden City area through at least 15z with ceilings then gradually improving through 18z. Low clouds will also being possible in the Liberal and Dodge City area with cloud bases forecast to be between 500 and 1000ft AGL. Areas of fog this morning will reduce visibilities as low as 2 miles at times. Ceilings will gradually improve through the day with MVFR conditions likely this afternoon and VFR conditions being possible by late day/early evening. Thunderstorm chances will improve this afternoon across southwest Kansas with the best opportunity for the steadier and heavier storms occurring at Liberal and Garden City between 18z and 23z today and then Dodge City between 21z today and 02z Saturday. he shortwave ridge well east of the region. Long range models and their ensemble counterparts then show for the possibility of a large trof to start to carve out across the southwestern United States. In addition, remnant tropical disturbance moisture might mix in, further complicating the synoptic picture. Examining both GEFs and ENS output, it is very unclear how much these two disturbances will interact with each other and where exactly the storm track will be. The NBM does continue to ramp up pops over the middle portion of the business week to account for the possibility of more unsettled weather. This is something to watch as there is essentially very little agreement in the ensembles.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1111 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Flight categories are improving across all TAF sites to start the period, leading to mainly VFR conditions across the area. MVFR condition continue to linger for HYS, but improvements will continue into this afternoon. Widespread light rain, with isolated pockets of moderate to heavy rain, is expected across the area throughout much of today. Rainfall will gradually taper off from southwest to northeast between 22z-04z. CIGs and stratus begin to lower again this evening, through tonight, and into Saturday morning. MVFR categories are most likely, but some instances of IFR will be possible (especially up toward HYS). Conditions improve after 15z Saturday across the area. Another small chance of showers and storms will be possible between 08-12z Saturday morning, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this time.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.