textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Cloudy Wednesday with seasonable temperatures.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms along and east of US 283 Wednesday evening. Severe hail/wind potential highest east of a Coldwater-Stafford line.

- Sunny and dry, pleasant spring day Thursday.

- Cold front brings strong north winds Friday. Severe thunderstorms expected to remain southeast of Barber County Friday evening.

- Dry and quiet Easter weekend, with light freezes expected Saturday and Sunday mornings.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Strong progressive shortwave was near the Four Corners at midday, and will progress quickly eastward into SW KS this evening. Infrared satellite shows an impressive widespread mid/high overcast ahead of this feature, with radar trending upward with virga/sprinkles. Winds will trend southeast this afternoon and increase some, allowing for moisture advection and dewpoints climbing through the 40s. In conjunction with forcing for ascent improving through time, scattered showers will become progressively more likely late this afternoon and this evening. Strongest lift and forcing will arrive about 7 pm, when showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop quickly along and east of US 283. All activity will be forced to move eastward quickly, which will keep rainfall amounts limited. Areas west of US 283 will receive little if any rain. 12z NAM does increase MUCAPE/elevated instability to near 500 J/kg this evening, so embedded thunder is likely. Much more significant instability/shear parameters will be place across NW Oklahoma, where numerous thunderstorms will develop this evening. Some of this activity is expected to clip at least Barber county and surrounding areas, where large hail/damaging wind is most probable this evening. All/any thunderstorms are expected to clear the DDC CWA no later than 2 am Thursday. Models show very rapid clearing overnight as subsidence behind the shortwave arrives.

Full sunshine returns Thursday, allowing for warmer temperatures in the 70s. Light northwest winds early, behind the departing system, will be forced to become south/southeast rapidly Thursday afternoon, in response to strong lee cyclogenesis in eastern Colorado. Strongest winds are expected west of US 83 Thursday afternoon.

Strong 544 dm midlevel cyclone over Idaho 7 pm Thursday is consistently forecasted by all models to be over South Dakota 7 pm Friday. This cyclone track is unusually far north for early April, and this synoptic evolution will dryslot SW KS. Associated cold front will arrive northern zones Friday morning, and easily clear the Oklahoma border early Friday evening, followed by strong north winds. 12z MET/MOS guidance are both trending upwards on these north winds, at 20-30 mph sustained with gusts near 40 mph. NBM is too weak with these winds, and will be increased by future shifts. Cold advection behind the cold front appears gradual, and sunshine/NWly downslope will offset some of it, so still expecting 60s north and 70s south Friday afternoon.

Easter weekend will be dry and pleasant, with temperatures not too far from normal for early April. Expecting 60s Saturday and 70s Sunday with few if any clouds, and relatively tame winds, for a pleasant spring weekend. Northwest winds will be still breezy at 15-25 mph Saturday, trending to modest south winds Easter afternoon. Light winds and dry air over very dry topsoils will promote strong radiational cooling at night, with widespread light freezes expected both Saturday and Sunday mornings. Fortunately, the incoming air mass will not be particularly cold, as such freeze damage to early vegetation should be limited.

High confidence Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry. To various degrees models show a longwave trough returning to the Rockies late next week, which will reestablish the dryline, with improving chances for showers and thunderstorms during the April 9-10th time frame.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 528 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for all sites through the TAF period. Some lingering showers will remain scattered across the CWA with no expected impact to flight conditions with cloud cover much higher than criteria. Evening thunderstorms are currently forecast to remain well east of all sites. Some LLWS may be present around 5Z, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs. Skies will clear around halfway through the period as winds lighten and shift from the south, to from the northwest, and ending out of the south again.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.