textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a slight chance for severe thunderstorms late today and overnight across southwest Kansas. The primary hazards tonight will be wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph and heavy rainfall. Isolated hail up to quarters will also be possible.

- Cooler temperatures expected mid week with highs mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

- Dry and warmer temperatures will return to southwest Kansas for the weekend. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 90s to around 100

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

This morning, like yesterday morning, there was a 500mb high over the southwest United States with several upper level disturbances rotating around this upper high. Southwest Kansas remains on the northeast periphery of this upper high, in an area of developing northwest flow. One surface boundary today was located from southeast Colorado into the panhandle of Texas. Further north, a cold front was moving towards northwest Kansas. These two boundaries, along with the moist upslope flow that will be present across southwest Kansas will create a favorable environment for scattered thunderstorms late today and overnight as our next upper wave exits the Rockies and approaches western Kansas. High precipitable water values across southwest Kansas today (1.4 to 1.8 based on SPC MesoAnalysis) is also present which favors the potential for heavy rainfall from these storms. Based on forecast MUCAPE of +4000j/kg by early evening, high PWAT values and 0-6 shear increasing to 30 to 35 knots it currently appears that the main risk from the stronger storms storms later tonight and overnight will be capable of producing strong gusty winds, heavy rainfall and hail.

Timing of these storms late today and overnight...Our first upper wave was currently crossing western Kansas at this time (noon), and will move east of the Pratt and Medicine Lodge areas by 3pm. As a result, the ongoing convection as of noon today is also expected to end from west to east. These storms will produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall but at this time it appears wind gusts may stay in the 50-60 mph. Hail is expected to be less than one inch. Once these storms end then our next round of thunderstorms are expected to develop between 5pm and 7pm across eastern Colorado and extreme southwest Kansas (west of highway 83) as our next upper level trough begins to cross eastern Colorado. As these storms move east/southeast across western Kansas and expand in coverage overnight there will be a better chance for strong to severe thunderstorms to occur at times with these storms. At this time the potential exists that wind gusts of 60 to 70mph, Quarter size hail and locally heavy rainfall. This locally heavy rainfall may result in ponding of water on roads and poor drainage area.

As our Tuesday night upper wave exit western Kansas, a cold front will cross southwest Kansas and usher in some cooler air into the area. This will bring an end to the hot temperatures...briefly. The ensemble spread of high temperatures following this cold front on Wednesday and even Thursday is small and differs by less than 5f between the cooler 25th percentile and warmer 75th percentile. Given this will be staying close to the current NBM high temperature forecast (highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s), but temperatures in some areas may end up being even a few degrees cooler than this (2-3F cooler) on Wednesday depending on how much afternoon cloud cover may be present.

Thereafter, the upper ridge will reassert its influence on western Kansas as it shifts east from southwest towards the Southern Plains. This will result in temperatures once again rebounding to near 100 degrees by the start of the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 528 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

VFR is expected to continue through this TAF period, with varying amounts of mid/high clouds. There is much uncertainty regarding thunderstorm potential tonight, with significant model variability, and the atmosphere being stabilized by earlier storm outflow. Given the unknowns, chose to keep convection out of this set of TAFs and will monitor. Outside of any convective influence, winds are expected to remain light and variable through this period.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.