textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer temperatures return to southwest Kansas this upcoming workweek.

- Monitoring the potential for afternoon wind gusts in excess of 40 mph late week, mainly Friday. - Cooler temperatures return next weekend along with a chance for precipitation.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1137 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

A southwesterly flow aloft was developing across southwest Kansas as an upper level ridge moves into the Mississippi Valley and an upper low/trough begins to establish itself over the western United States. An upper level disturbance embedded in the southwesterly flow was located over southwest New Mexico earlier today and as this upper level wave crosses the Rockies and moves out into the Plains over the next 24 to 36 hours a weak surface boundary/cold front moves into portions of western Kansas by early Monday morning. At this time it appears there will only be an increase in clouds ahead of this approaching upper wave given limited moisture which will help keep temperatures up a some overnight compared to the last few nights with lows tonight mainly in the 40s. On Monday little in the way of cooler air will accompany this weak cold front as it moves into western Kansas and becomes nearly stationary west of highway 83. High temperatures on Monday behind this front will be only a few degrees cooler compared to the highs on Sunday over the next 5 days.while further south and east (mainly across south central Kansas) the highs on Monday will be a few degrees warmer.

Warmer temperatures return to southwest Kansas next week. Ensembles are in good agreement today with an upper low deepening as it drops south along the West Coast early in the week. During the last half of the work week this upper low will begin to weaken as it moves across California and approaches the four corners area. While this occurs the surface trough of low pressure will reestablish itself over eastern Colorado as 850mb warmer air develops and spreads east across western Kansas. Based on the latest ensembles the mean 850mb temperatures will warm from 10-15C at 7pm Monday to near 20C by 7pm Wednesday. These unseasonably warm temperatures are then forecast to remain in place through late week. This forecast warmup easily supports highs currently forecast in the 75 to near 80 degree range late week and may even end up being a few degrees warmed give the increasing southerly winds late week and deeper mixing potential being possible.

As for the increasing winds late week. Ensembles already indicated that deeper mixing will occur late week as a tight pressure gradient develops east of the deepening lee trough crossing eastern Colorado. All the ensemble clusters has the 25th percentile of the 850mb winds Friday afternoon at around 30 knots and the 75th percentile at least 40 knots. The NBM already is forecasting that some areas west of highway 283 (40-60% chance) could experience wind gusts in excess of 40 mph during the day on Friday.

Cooler temperatures return next weekend along with a chance for precipitation. The southwesterly flow aloft will continue across western Kansas through next weekend as the upper low over California weakens and moves east towards the Central Rockies. Although there may be a chance (<20%) for widely scattered/isolated showers late Tuesday night as subtle upper wave embedded in the southwest flow crosses southwest Kansas...the better chance for precipitation will be from late Friday through the weekend as the main western United States upper trough approaches the area and improving moisture occurs ahead of this approaching upper wave based on PWATS increasing to greater than 80% across western Kansas and several days of improving IVT (Thursday night through the weekend). Friday night the better chance for precipitation will be west of highway 283 but the chance for showers and thunderstorms will then spread across all of southwest and south central Kansas over the weekend as the upper level trough moves approaches western Kansas and a cold front drops south into the area. Along with the improving chances for precipitation this weekend there will southwest Kansas is in store for another shot of cooler air following the cold frontal passage.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 502 PM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A south wind of 10-15 KTs and gusts up to 25 KTs are forecast through this period of calm weather.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.