textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet dry weather returns Monday through Wednesday, with pleasant afternoon temperatures near late April normals.

- Widespread beneficial rainfall is possible Thursday and Friday offering some potential drought relief.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Strong shortwave was arriving on the high plains and SW KS as of midnight. Strong forcing for ascent was forcing scattered showers and thunderstorms, but convection has been elevated above the cool/stable boundary layer. Shortwave is providing excellent kinematics and favorable hodographs for severe thunderstorms, but the intrusion of cold/stable air and stratus earlier on Sunday significantly weakened the thermodynamic environment, and reduced the severe threat over SW KS greatly. Stratus will continue to expand through tonight, and winds will trend northwest through morning as the shortwave passes east.

Stratus and drizzle or light rain may persist for a few hours Monday morning across northern zones, before subsidence clears the sky and delivers a pleasant spring day. Monday will feature sunshine, breezy northwest winds, and temperatures very near late April normals.

Cool surface high pressure builds to near 1020 mb over the central plains through Tuesday morning, with surface winds trending northeast. Tuesday will be noticeably cooler, with 00z NAM reducing 850 mb temperatures to well less than 10C. 00z MET forecasts a high of 54 at DDC Tuesday, which is likely too cold given expected sunshine. NBM is reasonable, with afternoon temperatures several degrees below normal in the 60s. High pressure strengthens further through Wednesday morning, building southward through Kansas, forcing sunrise temperatures well below normal, well down into the 30s. NBM forecasted min temperatures are in the mid 30s, and frost advisories may be required Tuesday and/or Wednesday mornings. Damaging freezes to vegetation ( < 28) are not expected.

Tuesday will be dry, and Wednesday will be dry through 7 pm. Models suggest a broad overrunning, warm advection pattern, above cool surface high pressure, beginning Thursday morning. Most ensemble members agree with a southern stream closed cyclone near Arizona by 7 pm Thursday, with forcing for ascent increasing/maintained into Friday as the cyclone arrives in New Mexico. NBM pops during the Thursday time frame are already very high, into the likely/definite category (60-80%), and are focused on the western/southwest zones where drought is the most severe, and where they need rain the most. Much of SW KS has been unusually dry for quite some time, but models are suggestive of a more favorable, more southerly storm track, that would be conducive to spreading widespread or stratiform rain into SW KS. This will not be a severe weather or convective setup, rather a beneficial soaking rainfall with little if any instability. NBM probability of measurable QPF (>0.01 inch) is already 70-90%, focused on these western zones, for Thursday and Friday. Some drought relief is possible later this week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 544 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Cloud ceilings and surface visibilities will start out in the LIFR to IFR range through 15Z and then we should start to see ceilings rise and clouds break up between 15-18Z which will result in VFR flight category through the rest of the time period. Wind speeds through the morning and afternoon will be in the 12-15 kt range with gusts of 20-25 kts.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.