textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms possible again for Independence Day, greatest chance across central Kansas

- Not as hot to start the new workweek; hotter mid to late week

- Near daily chance of storms next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 114 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Complex storm scenario is expected this afternoon across Kansas given the placement of remnant outflows and new storm development expected this morning. 06z mesoanalysis and surface observations early this morning depict remnant outflow boundary draped across central Kansas. Renewed thunderstorm develop is expected and is underway across northwest Kansas, and this is expected to increase in coverage throughout this morning and track eastward. This morning's activity will likely have a significant impact on convective potential for the forecast area later this afternoon and evening. Should this activity be strong enough, it could reinforce the preexisting boundary and push it farther south of the KS/OK border. If this is to occur, the question becomes how far north can this boundary be brought back. Even in recent runs of the HRRR paint differing scenarios. The 00z HRRR struggled to bring the boundary back north, leading to no storms in central Kansas. However, the more recent 03/04z runs showed the boundary not going as far south and brings the boundary back north. Other CAMs like the 00z NAMNest/RRFS are more in the middle of those other two scenarios with the WRF-ARW and NSSL farther south. Needless to say, the convective evolution today is fluid. Should the boundary be in place, the potential is there for storms in our northeast and eastern zones. The environment would be comprised of large CAPEs and increased shear, with some turning in the low-levels. Supercells would be the initial convective mode, with large to very large hail a possibility. A brief tornado cannot be entirely ruled out if a supercell is able to latch onto the boundary. Storms would then congeal and become more of a damaging wind risk into the evening. Again, this is all contingent upon the location of remnant outflow boundaries from this morning.

Temperatures today will be flirting with Heat Advisory criteria in Barber County, but kept heat indices just below criteria after collaboration with neighboring offices. Temperatures will be around 100 degrees for southern zones, and heat indices 100-104. Heat precautions should still be taken during any outdoor activities. Temperatures will "cool" to end the week and into the start of next week. Temperatures will be more around 90 degrees for Sunday and low to mid 90s Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday could see the resurgence of near or reaching triple digits in western and southern portions of the forecast area. In addition to the heat, POPs are in the forecast nearly every day with varying levels of chances.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1140 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Biggest change compared to previous update is now the expected thunderstorms overnight across central Kansas, mainly after 07z. Latest guidance places thunderstorms in the vicinity of HYS through early this morning. Have included storms in the TAF to reflect this. The other terminals should largely be storm free through the morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Another chance of late afternoon and evening storms are possible Saturday, but coverage is expected to be low therefore will keep mention out for any specific terminal for now. Winds will be relatively light and variable throughout the area given weak low pressure over the region.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.