textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures to start the workweek

- Warming trend midweek followed by another cooldown and strong winds Thursday and Friday

- Dry weather pattern through next weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

17Z synopsis shows a longwave trough moving through the northern plains which has dampened the upper level high in the desert southwest and shifted the center back to the west. A strong cold front is now well south into the Texas panhandle with post frontal winds through much of southwest Kansas in the 20-35 mph range and gusts to 50 mph.

Winds should diminish during the overnight as a building ridge in the central plains will intensify a surface high in the northern plains. This will relax the pressure gradient and we should see winds relax to 5-10 mph after midnight. With the colder air in place and lighter winds we should see overnight lows fall back into the mid to upper 30s.

Monday should be a cooler day as well with the residual cooler air hanging around through much of the day. As the surface high shifts eastward the surface winds should flip back to the south through the day. With a developing lee trough in Colorado wind speeds from highway 83 on west should intensify to 15-25 mph and gusts to 30 by late afternoon. Highs will be in the 60s.

Through the mid week the medium term models are in good agreement the surface high in the desert southwest will intensify and shift the polar jet stream back up into the northern plains. We should also have the return of west to southwest wind in the boundary layer and this will help to push temperatures back into the 90s by Wednesday. Thursday the long term ensembles have another dip in the polar jet which will push a strong cold front through western Kansas during the day. Post frontal winds should be strong with the good mixing and we could once again see sustained winds at least 20-30 mph with NBM probabilities of greater than 40 mph wind gusts at 10-20% at this time from Thursday afternoon through Friday. Ensemble QPF forecast continue to keep QPF numbers around 0.00 through next weekend and with the lack of moisture in the forecast the POPs will continue to be around 0% for the next 7 days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 500 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

VFR expected through TAF pd. The gusty northeast winds will diminish around 10 kt by dusk. A center of sfc high pressure will slide southward during the day tomorrow to the east. On the backside of this high, winds will eventually become southeast/south 10-20 kt as the day continues.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ031-045- 046-064>066-075>081-084>090.