textproduct: Dodge City

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable high temperatures for much of this week with a warming trend this weekend

- Mainly dry weather pattern for at least the next week with the exception of a few isolated pop up storms possible on Wednesday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1134 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

05Z synopsis shows a 600 dm high located over the northern plains and a 1021 mb surface high in Iowa. These features are leading to surface winds generally out of a east to southeast direction.

Overall weather pattern will continue to have an around 600 dm upper level high over the Great Lakes and an upper level low retrograding from the southeast CONUS to Texas by late week. This rex block weather pattern should keep the gulf moisture closed off from the central plains and combining with the strong upper level and surface high we should see mostly sunny to at times partly cloudy skies for much of the workweek. Short term models and long range ensembles agree on little to no QPF for the next 7 days as a result. However there is a small chance (~10%) of some pop up thunderstorms on Wednesday with an upper level shortwave rotating around the upper low from east to west. Coverage of the storms will be very localized so most areas won't receive the rainfall. Winds should light for southwest Kansas standards through the midweek with east to southeast winds in the boundary layer. Wind speeds should increase towards the end of the workweek into the weekend as a developing trough in the Rockies will combine with the stagnant high over the northern plains. Wind gusts by the end of the week should be in the 30 mph range.

Long range ensemble upper level pattern does show a breaking down of the upper high in the Great Lakes and a building ridge and upper level high over the Rockies this weekend. This will allow warmer air to enter into southwest Kansas during the weekend with NBM outlooks showing high in the mid to upper 90s for the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1134 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Quiet weather conditions for the forecast period as we should have VFR flight category with winds in general 12 kts or less.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

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