textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-normal temperatures are expected today amidst downsloping westerly winds.

- First opportunity for precipitation arrives Thursday morning from the south, but the northward extent of rainfall is in question.

- Peak precipitation probability, and expected QPF, is still anticipated Friday through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Midday water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal a large longwave trough encompasses all areas west of the Mississippi River, with a few embedded shortwaves emanating through the flow. At the surface, weak high pressure is building into the central plains in the wake of last night's cold frontal passage, which will facilitate a weakening of the winds through the remainder of the day. Despite this, downsloping component of the winds will support afternoon high warming into the low/mid 60s for most, while the far southeast zones/Red Hills approach the low 70s. Overnight, winds will remain light and variable as cloud cover advances northward ahead of a weak 500-mb shortwave trough ejecting toward the central plains, with Thursday morning lows ranging from the low 30s northwest to the mid 40s southeast.

Early Thursday morning, high resolution short range guidance indicates light rain will spread poleward into southwest KS courtesy of theta-e advection and the aforementioned 500-mb shortwave impulse, and continue into the early afternoon. However, CAMs are not in agreement regarding its northward extent. The 3-km NAM is much more bullish suggesting nearly all zones will benefit, while the pessimistic HRRR resolves next to nothing outside of the far southeast zones, and the NSSL- WRF/WRF-ARW somewhere in between. Suffice to say, confidence is low in how widespread the rainfall will be. Otherwise, skies will be mostly cloudy for much of the area, save for the far southwest zones, and afternoon high will range from the upper 50s northeast to the mid 60s southwest.

The good news is a considerably more robust opportunity for precipitation remains apparent Friday through Saturday as the large, upper level longwave trough axis slowly inches eastward and emerges onto the High Plains. According to the NBM, the peak of the event in terms of probability of precipitation will be Friday afternoon into the early Saturday morning hours as pops are in the definite category (75-100%) for all zones. Unfortunately, medium range ensembles have trended down a bit regarding total QPF as the GEFS and ECMWF EPS are now suggesting 0.3-0.8" of QPF across southwest KS. This is reflected in NBM probability of QPF > 0.5" in the 50-80% range for all areas. Additionally, precipitation may switch to snow on Saturday, especially across the northwest zones, as a stronger cold airmass reaches the central plains on the tail end of the precipitation event, however little to no winter impacts are expected at this time. Beyond Saturday, ensembles agree upper level ridging will build over the western CONUS, which would promote as dry, warming trend across southwest KS through the end of the period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1239 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

High cirriform cloud continued to stream northward into western Kansas ahead of the next shortwave trough. This next wave will yield rain showers from mid morning through early afternoon as they move from south to north during the 12-20Z time frame. There is not expected to be widespread visibility or ceiling reduction during the day, but as southeast winds continue into the latter portion of this TAF period, MVFR/IFR flight category is expected to become more widespread as lower level stratus cloud develops Thursday evening.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.