textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread low clouds will keep temperatures cool and below normal Tuesday.

- Scattered thunderstorms with potential for hail across the southeast zones early Wednesday morning.

- Stronger storm system will bring strong south winds and much warmer temperatures Thursday.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Thursday evening. Some storms may be severe with large hail and damaging winds.

- More severe weather possible eastern zones Friday, ahead of a strong cold front Friday night. Much cooler Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Yesterday's colder model solutions are verifying nicely at midday, with the frontal boundary and sharp temperature gradient south of the KS/OK border. Surface observations and satellite imagery depicts widespread stratus across all of SW KS, and the stratus will persist through sunset with cold surface ridging wedging down through SW KS. Temperatures will struggle in the 40s this afternoon with light northeast winds.

Stratus will continue to prevail tonight, deterring radiational cooling, allowing temperatures to only fall into the 30s. Most locations will be dry tonight, with more areas of fog and drizzle. Strong shortwave trough over eastern Colorado will increase forcing for ascent after midnight, with scattered thunderstorms expected over the southeast counties. Any convection will be elevated over the cold boundary layer, as such small to marginally severe hail is the expected hazard. Any hail should be quarter sized or less, per SPC 5% hail probability.

Shortwave trough axis is forecast to arrive over SW KS midday Wednesday, and into central Kansas by 6 pm. Subsidence behind this feature will clear the sky from west to east, with sunshine returning Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will respond, rebounding back to the 60s. Winds will be light for a pleasant early spring day.

A much stronger, colder closed midlevel cyclone will dig southeast over the Great Basin Thursday, near Salt Lake City at 6 pm Thursday. Associated lee cyclogenesis over eastern Colorado will be strong, forcing south winds to increase significantly. Strongest wind guidance is preferred as usual, with 12z MAV trending upward, near 30 mph sustained 3 pm Thursday. Increased winds over NBM, with gusts to near 50 mph by early evening. Moisture advection will accompany these south winds, as it is pretty obvious the dryline will remain well backed to the west through Thursday. Rather unusual the hold the dryline west of SW KS in early March, but that appears to be the case with the parent cyclone so far removed upstream. Despite the strong winds, this reduces wildfire danger markedly Thursday afternoon. With SW KS east of the dryline, thunderstorm potential is apparent especially Thursday evening. Instability and shear will be sufficient for organized convection including supercells, but initiation/triggers are more muddled. With the dryline not moving, much surface convergence will be lost, which would squash potential with strong capping/EML in place. Synoptic forcing for ascent will also be well removed to the west, with the system still centered in Utah. There is also a question if the true warm sector can even get into SW KS, with stratus/drizzle prevailing amid the strong warm/moist advection. It is extremely difficult to set up severe thunderstorm synoptic environments this far west, this early in the season, so these caveats against convection deserve attention. Extended CAMs such as RRFS highlight some of these factors, which is dry through 6 pm Thursday, with initiation most likely in the panhandles/caprock, moving northeast into Kansas Thursday evening. Any sustained convection will be capable of large hail/damaging winds, and NBM's likely pops for the eastern zones were maintained.

Medium range model consensus is for the Great Basin trough to split into two distinct shortwaves Friday, one becoming a cutoff low over the SW US, the other ejecting through the central plains through Friday. Significant severe weather is likely in the warm sector Friday, ahead of the dryline and south of the expected surging cold front. Models suggest this threat may begin across our eastern zones, acknowledging the dryline usually ends up west of model predictions. Wildfire danger will increase behind the dryline Friday afternoon, with strong southwest winds and relative humidity falling to near 10%. Strong cold front will easily clear the Oklahoma border by midnight, with strong north winds Saturday morning, and much cooler air Saturday afternoon. Some locations will hold in the 50s Saturday, before another very rapid warming trend Sunday and Monday. NBM is already forecasting near record highs in the lower 80s Monday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1005 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Surface observations at 16z Tue depicted widespread IFR/LIFR stratus across SW KS. Surface visibility was in the process of improving as fog lifts into a stratus layer. Poor flying conditions will continue through most of the upcoming TAF period, with persistent IFR stratus prevailing. VFR/SKC is forecast to return from west to east, just after this TAF period, after 18z Wed. Winds will remain light through this TAF cycle, mainly with a northerly component.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.