textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- A stormy pattern is expected over the next week, with a few opportunities for locally heavy rain.

- After another temperate day today, warm and humid conditions will return for Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 106 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Weak surface high pressure will move off to the east today, with south winds and moisture advection developing. Despite the late June insolation, clouds may have a hard time eroding. But expect some breaks to allow temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to lower and mid 80s (coolest readings from Dodge City southward). Locations that receive less sun may not get above the mid to upper 70s. T-storms may form in the lee of the Rockies but the mid level flow is too weak to bring these into Kansas this evening so that significant rains are highly unlikely.

A shortwave trough off the coast of Southern California will advance eastward by Saturday and approach the western high plains. A mid level thermal gradient will exist across northern Kansas. Strong instability can be expected with daytime heating and continued moist advection. Much stronger mid to high level winds will allow for afternoon t-storms in the lee of the Rockies (north sides of Raton Mesa and Palmer Divide) to progress into western Kansas in the evening. The most organized t-storms will be from I-70 northward Saturday night, with isolated severe storms farther south. Very large hail and damaging winds will accompany these storms. It is too early to tell the areal coverage of severe weather.

Sunday's weather hinges on how much cool outflow is generated by Saturday night's storms and how far south this cool air progresses. Given the moist air mass and a 700mb thermal gradient across the high plains, isolated to scattered t-storms are still possible. An effective frontal boundary will likely be south of Kansas even into Monday; but with relatively cool temperatures at 700mb (+10C) and strong heating of a moist air mass, t-storms may still occur. Storms may also form on the higher terrain to the west and progress into western Kansas given the moist, upslope flow and moderate westerlies.

By Monday and Tuesday an upper level trough is predicted to move from the northern Rockies into the Upper Midwest, with low amplitude upper level ridging over the southern Rockies. In between these two features, unseasonably strong west- northwest flow at mid and upper levels will exist, along with ample instability. This is a classic pattern for summer time severe weather with large hail and damaging winds. Of course, we are arriving at the time of year when low level shear is marginal despite ample bulk shear and CAPE. Thus, tornado probabilities are low except for any isolated events along mesoscale boundaries.

The various ensemble suites continue to show westerly flow across the central plains through next Friday. Thus, t-storms can't be ruled out through the end of June. Upper level ridging will eventually build across the central plains as we move into July; but it remains to be seen how dominant any ridging will be.

Over the next week, the grand ensemble shows very high probabilities (50-90%) of 1" or more of rain, with the very highest chances in central Kansas. This is the result of multiple events affecting different areas from day to day. To give some idea of maximum rain potential, the 90th percentile of total rain over the next week per grand ensemble is 2 to 3" in central Kansas and 1-2" across western Kansas. Thus, it is not unreasonable to expect heavy rain in some areas and modest amounts in others.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1248 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

A return to south winds will bring a moist air mass northward today, resulting in CIGS possibly lowering to MVFR for a few hours between 12-18z (especially at KDDC and KGCK). It is unclear how fast CIGS will rise/erode with daytime heating, if at all. Expect south winds to increase to 10-15 kts by 15-17z as a surface trough strengthen in the lee of the Rockies.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.