textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Northerly winds behind yesterday's cold front will bring much cooler air into southwest KS, with highs ranging from the low 70s to mid 80s.

- Thunderstorms, some potentially severe, are possible during the evening and overnight hours favoring our western zones. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary hazards.

- Cool temperatures and frequent rainfall chances are here to stay through the end of the business week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

KDDC radar observations late Saturday evening show the decaying remnants of an elevated mesoscale convective system moving northeast across our northern zones. This activity will pose little threat other than heavy rain and frequent lightning as it continues northeast. Otherwise, northerly winds in the wake of an earlier cold front passage will bring much cooler air equatorward overnight, with lows dropping into the upper 50s northwest to the upper 60s southeast.

Daytime today, guidance indicates an upper level shortwave trough currently over the northern Rockies, as per latest water vapor satellite imagery, will inch eastward onto the northern plains. At the surface, northeasterly winds will persist across southwest KS as high pressure settles into the area, supporting a long-awaited break from the record-breaking heat as afternoon highs will range from the low/mid 70s near I-70 to the low/mid 80s along the KS/OK border. By late afternoon/early evening, HREF members suggest thunderstorm development is possible in the post-frontal upslope flow regime over east-central CO and west-central KS, moving southeast through the overnight period over our western zones. Roughly 1000-1500 J/kg and 30-35 kts of deep-layer shear will be in place, supporting a severe risk with any convection that forms, with large hail and damaging wind gusts the primary threats.

Short range ensembles maintain upper level westerly flow across the central plains daytime Monday between a pair of shortwave troughs over the northern plains/upper Midwest and the central CA coast. As a result, southwest KS will remain under the influence of weak surface high pressure and light northeasterly winds, both of which will help reinforce the cool airmass over our area and promote afternoon highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. Thunderstorm activity will also likely be muted given the lack of upper level forcing.

Tuesday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles agree weak upper level ridging over the southern plains and a convoluted pattern elsewhere will engender a continuation of the cool, seasonable temperatures across the central plains with afternoon highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s each day through at least the end of the business week. Precipitation chances will also exist each day as the NBM has at least some chance pops (25-54%) every day into the weekend, with the highest probability surrounding Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Radar observations show a convective complex is closing in on HYS this evening, which will bring a brief period of TSRA and IFR/LIFR cigs/vis. This will be followed by post-frontal stratus building southward into southwest KS, resulting in MVFR/IFR cigs during the early morning through early afternoon hours at HYS, DDC, and GCK. LBL will likely avoid any flight reductions, but they cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, winds will be out of the north/northeast aob 12 kts through 06Z Monday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.