textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Arctic air modifies with a warming trend expected through Wednesday.

- Southwest Kansas will be dry through Thursday.

- Another shot of cold arctic air is expected Friday and Saturday. Some light snow is possible with this cold surge Friday, but amounts and impacts are expected to be limited.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Arctic high pressure was centered over Texas at midday, with satellite imagery revealing a perfectly clear sky, and a great view of snowcover across Kansas. Return flow was quite elevated on the backside of the retreating arctic high, with southwest winds gusting to near 30 mph at midday. Elevated southwest winds were causing limited blowing snow this morning, which will end this afternoon as winds decrease, and temperatures climb. Temperatures will respond to the SWly downslope compression this afternoon, with the warmest readings in several days. Areas west of US 83 will warm above freezing into the 30s, with snowcover keeping other zones in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Another cold night tonight with temperatures well below normal. A clear sky and the snowcover will allow for strong radiational cooling and lows of 10-15 range Tuesday morning. A light westerly downslope component through the night will keep temperatures from falling further, but will also contribute toward wind chills of -5 to +5 Tuesday morning. This is well above advisory criteria, and another cold weather advisory will not be issued.

Quiet dry weather can be expected Tuesday through Wednesday with a warming trend. Of course, this process will be slowed down by the melting snowcover, but still, the forecast will call for temperatures near 30 far northeast zones, to mid 40s near Elkhart, at 4 pm Tuesday. Winds will trend light and variable Tuesday with a much weaker pressure gradient, with increasing cirrus during the afternoon.

The warmest day of the week will be Wednesday, as heights peak and 850 mb temperatures rebound to the +7 to +9 range. Much of the remaining snowcover will melt Wednesday, with most locations warming back to near normal, in the 40s, in the afternoon. Snowcover on the ground is very fluffy and holds little water content, so it should melt/sublimate quickly. Western zones with the help of gentle westerly downslope will be warmer, with highs above 50 west of US 83. The next dry cold front will bring noticeably colder temperatures, back to the 30s Thursday.

A secondary, stronger cold air reinforcement is expected Friday, with the associated cold front likely arriving Friday morning per model timing consensus. Medium range models depict another strong arctic intrusion, with a surface high near 1050 mb over the Dakotas midday Friday, and strong arctic surface ridging building southward through Kansas through Friday evening. Medium range models suggest this arctic air mass will not be as cold as the last one, or at least SW KS will only receive a glancing blow this time, with 850 mb temperatures falling to -10 to -12C daytime Friday. That said, NBM may not be cold enough Friday, and temperatures may show a non-diurnal curve downward daylight Friday pending frontal timing. Did notice the latest NBM trended colder into the 20s for highs for much of SW KS Friday. The coldest temperatures Friday and Saturday will favor the northeast zones closest to the ridge axis, with 12z MEX forecasting highs in the lower 20s at Hays both days. The coldest morning of the forecast period is expected to be Saturday morning, with air temperatures approaching zero degrees, especially east of Dodge City.

High confidence that SW KS will remain dry through Thursday. Medium range models and most ensemble members hint at a post frontal frontogenetic band generating light fluffy snow during the Friday/Friday night time frame. Moisture will be very limited given the northern trajectory and arctic boundary layer, with NBM probability of snowfall over 1 inch currently only 20-25%. NBM probability of just measurable snowfall (>0.1 inch) is as high as 60% favoring the northern zones Friday, so a dusting appears probable. NBM pops have trended upward into the chance category, favoring the northern zones, centered on Friday morning, but this will not be a significant winter storm.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 436 PM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow with a few high clouds tomorrow morning into the afternoon. Winds will start out from a westerly direction this evening, then shift to the northwest overnight. Winds then become light tomorrow afternoon.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.