textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread critical fire weather conditions today and Tuesday ahead of the first storm system. All 27 counties of NWS DDC area will remain in Red Flag Warning today and Fire Weather Watch (to be upgraded to Red Flag Warning) Tuesday.

- Additional critical fire weather concerns ahead of the second late week storm system, especially west of Highway 283 where lowest relative humidity will remain.

- Severe weather risk across eastern half of NWS Dodge City area Friday ahead of the second, larger and stronger storm system. SPC 15% Probabilistic Outlook for severe storms Friday east of a Coldwater to Larned line.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Very warm and dry weather will continue out ahead of a large upper level trough centered over California and Nevada late this morning. Broad southwesterly flow through the depth of the troposphere will become most pronounced Tuesday afternoon when the center of the mid level trough axis moves across Colorado, inducing a lower tropospheric low across northwestern Kansas. This will keep the strongest height gradient 850mb through 700mb across much of Kansas into Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Deep mixing through 3km AGL by mid to late afternoon will support fairly frequent southwest wind gusts 35 to 40 knots, so we have continued to favor 75th percentile winds off the NBM for much of our southwest Kansas region. The same goes for afternoon temperatures, favoring 75th percentile given continued very dry condition, resulting in highs Tuesday upper 80s to around 90F across the eastern half of the DDC CWA.

On Wednesday, we will see a break in strong winds in between storm systems, but the next incoming storm system will be larger in scope and a bit stronger, so we will begin seeing surface response to the next storm as early as midday Thursday as the leeside trough redevelop and south winds increase again. As the 850mb and 700mb height gradient increases, deep southwesterly winds will increase, and we will see these mix down to the surface in stronger gusts again late in the afternoon, especially across far southwest Kansas. The downslope southwesterlies will be a warm wind, so highs well into the mid 80s are forecast with even some upper 80s/near 90 in the typically hot locations such as the Red Hills.

Through all this time today through Thursday, the surface dryline will remain east across south central Kansas into western Oklahoma, but given just enough uncertainty in county-level detail of dryline position, we will keep some small POPs across the Red Hills region for thunderstorms late Tuesday/Tuesday Night until the first storm system fully clears our region. The dryline will push east and eventually become quite diffuse by Thursday as the MSLP pattern undergoes a readjustment in between storms. The dryline is then expected to reform farther west on Friday as the next larger storm takes shape over the Rockies. The reshaped dryline will sharpen up as convergence increases due to deepening surface low by Friday afternoon, setting the stage for a fairly classic looking severe weather episode across the Central Plains, including eastern portions of the DDC CWA. The latest SPC Convective Outlook for Friday includes a 15% outlook for our eastern areas, east of roughly Coldwater to Larned line, for all severe weather risks including possibility of tornadoes.

After Friday evening severe weather risk shifts east of southwest and south central Kansas, a strong cold front will sweep south some time Friday Night, ushering in much cooler air. A stable/quiet weekend will follow, albeit windy and chilly Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1107 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

VFR conditions will persist throughout the TAF period. Winds have subsided significantly across the area as we continue to move into the late evening and overnight hours. Weaker winds of sustained 10-15 knots will continue through the night. Another day of strong southwesterly winds are expected today, with winds increasing markedly after 14-15z. Expect sustained winds 20-25 knots with gusts 35-40 knots. Winds will again diminish quickly with the sunset after 00z to 10-15 knots sustained.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Tuesday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.