textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Significant snowfall is expected over southwest Kansas through early this evening. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for areas west of a Liberal to Ulysses line. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect along and west of a Jetmore to Dodge City to Ashland line.

- Low temperatures in the teens and wind chills near zero will be possible early Saturday morning, mainly where snow cover exists.

- Cold temperatures this weekend will give way to a warming trend will return to southwest Kansas early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

A surface and 850mb low remains nearly stationary over northeast New Mexico earlier this morning, with a surface boundary extending southeast from the surface low into the Red River Valley. This low is expected to move very little through early late morning as an upper level trough near the Four Corners region at midnight tracks east. North of this New Mexico low, the short term models agree on snow developing and increasing in coverage through noon today before shifting east/northeast into southwest Kansas during the afternoon as northern branch upper level trough exits the Rockies and moves into the Plains. As this upper level trough exits the Rockies later today area of enhanced lift north of a developing 700mb low will then be shunted eastward. This area of enhanced lift still appears to be fairly progressive as it crosses southwest Kansas during the afternoon which will limit the duration of steadier/heavier snowfall over any single location. Despite this progressive nature, the forecast forcing from 850-700mb frontogenesis beneath mid level instability and improving difluent flow aloft still suggests a quick 1 to 2 inches will be possible as this band of steadier/heavier snowfall passes. At this time confidence this morning is high >80% that the area of highest snowfall will occur across extreme southwest Kansas given the prolonged period of snowfall that will occur from early this morning through at least noon...however exact amounts are still not clear due to the uncertainty on how long the band of mid level moisture/lift that will accompany the upper level trough lingers over extreme southwest Kansas before it starts to move east. Following the latest short term models, which move the New Mexico upper low into southwest Kansas through noon Friday, snowfall totals greater than 6 inches are starting to appear more and more likely to occur in Liberal given the prolonged period of enhanced lift. Even the NBM guidance currently shows a 60-70% probability for 24 hour snowfall totals exceeding 6 inches west of Hugoton to Ulysses. This is up from 35 to 45% chance only 24 hours earlier. There is also a >70 percent chance for snowfall totals today >2 inches to be possible east of a Jetmore to Dodge City to Ashland line. Based on these snowfall totals a Winter Weather Advisory is in effect today along and west of a Jetmore to Dodge City to Ashland line. A Winter Storm Warning is in place for locations west of a Liberal to Ulysses line, where an extended period of steady snowfall is expected from early this morning through mid afternoon.

Further east, confidence in higher snowfall totals decreases given the progressive nature of the upper trough and potential limited time for this enhanced lift/moisture ahead will be located over any particular area. Currently the chance for snowfall totals greater than 2 inches east of highway 283 is less than 40%. Later shifts will need to evaluate the speed of the upper trough and how strong the lift is ahead of this upper wave late today/early this evening as it crosses south central Kansas, but the current model consensus suggests snowfall totals here will be between 1 and 2 inches.

Subsidence will develop once this upper trough exits western Kansas after midnight. This will result in clearing skies overnight as an area of high pressure begins to build into western Kansas. This will set the stage for some cold overnight low temperatures Saturday morning. Lows in the teens with wind chills near zero possible where snow cover exists.

By late this weekend, the upper trough will move into the eastern United States as an upper level ridge begins to build over the Western United States. This will lead to a period of dry, quiet weather with a warming trend returning early next week. This warmup will continue until the middle of next week before the next northern stream disturbance approaches the region.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 500 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

North winds will be at 10 to 15 knots today and early tonight. VFR conditions will decrease to 1000 to 2000ft AGL by 18z today in Garden City, Dodge City and Liberal as widespread steady snow spreads across southwest Kansas. Reduced visibility to one mile or less will be possible at times with the steady snow. Snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches will be possible today at Dodge City and Garden City. higher snowfall totals, 4 to 7 inches will be possible in the liberal area. Hays will be far enough north that snow may occur, but accumulations will be one inch or less. Ceilings are also not expected to be as low at Hays. Ceilings between 2000 and 3000ft AGL will be possible between 18z today and 00z Saturday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ this evening for KSZ061>064-076>078-087-088. Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for KSZ074- 075-084>086.