textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorm chances (50-70%) pick up across south central Kansas late afternoon through early evening.

- Unseasonably cool temperatures arrive tonight and stick around through at least Wednesday.

UPDATE

Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

***MESOSCALE DISCUSSION***

Current satellite depicts cumulus development ahead of a boundary stretching from Meade northeastward into Pawnee and Stafford Counties. A few convective attempts have already started, with the primary deep convection more northeast of the area in central Kansas. A brief landspout could occur on any initial development given the strong surface vorticity, steep low-level lapse rates, and stationary nature of the boundary.

After around 3-4 PM, convective evolution should transition to more robust storms down and along this boundary. Per mesoanalysis, effective bulk shear of 45-55 knots and MLCAPE of 3000-4000 J/kg suggests supercells. Damaging winds, very large hail, and a tornado risk is expected to materialize, especially as low-level shear increasing into the evening. The ultimate extent of significant severe weather will be contingent on if activity can stay more discrete. The ceiling is high for significant impacts, but trends will be monitored in the coming hours.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 134 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

WV imagery indicates a closed upper low pushing east through eastern Utah into western Colorado. Near the surface, a quasi-stationary frontal boundary extends from the eastern Texas Panhandle northeastward through northwest Oklahoma into south central Kansas.

Another round of thunderstorms (50-70% chance) are expected to develop across central/south central Kansas late today as the SREF indicates an embedded upper level shortwave within a larger scale trough quickly cycling northeast through the Colorado Rockies this afternoon, and farther up into the Upper Midwest this evening. In response, a quasi-stationary frontal boundary is forecast to move very little through early evening before being dislodged southward by a secondary frontal boundary surging in from the north. Ample moisture pooling south of the boundary with surface dewpoints well up into the mid/upper 60s(F) to near 70F will provide significant instability with MUCAPE values in excess of 4000 J/kg. Despite a less than robust southwest flow aloft (<50kt), thunderstorm development is likely late this afternoon as the core of the upper level shortwave passes just to our northwest in conjunction with a weakening cap as low/mid-level lapse rates steepen from peak daytime heating. The HREF supports this showing a 20-40% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.25 of an inch across south central Kansas, generally southeast of a Larned to Minneola line by late this evening. Strong instability and favorable deep layer shear will increase severe potential, including large hail and possibly a tornado or two. Drier conditions will then take hold through at least early Wednesday with drier air spreading southward into western Kansas while surface high pressure shifts eastward across the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest.

Unseasonably cool temperatures are forecast tonight as much cooler air surges southward into western Kansas behind a cold front pushing through western Kansas into northern Oklahoma early/mid-evening, dropping the H85 5C isotherm well down into extreme southwest Kansas. With the HREF painting a 70-90% probability of temperatures dipping below 45F across the region in question to a 30-50% probability of temperatures falling below 50F in south central Kansas, expect lows generally down into the 40s(F) with the upper 30s(F) possible out near the Colorado line. Temperatures remain below normal Tuesday as surface high pressure in the Upper Midwest helps reinforce a the cooler air mass across western Kansas within an easterly upslope flow with H85 temperatures ranging from around 10C in central Kansas to near 15C in extreme southwest Kansas. Considering the HREF shows a 70-90% probability of temperatures topping 65F in west central/central Kansas to a better than 90% probability of exceeding 65F farther south near the Oklahoma line, look for afternoon highs mainly in the 60s(F). Similar temperatures are likely Wednesday under the influence of a prevailing easterly upslope flow.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1100 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

IFR cigs are expected to linger in vicinity of KHYS through mid- afternoon as prevailing low level stratus continues to erode slowly northward, then return to VFR the remainder of the afternoon as the stratus scatters out. Otherwise, primarily VFR conditions will persist in vicinity of KLBL, KDDC, and KGCK through early Tuesday. Thunderstorm development is likely along and ahead of a warm front projected to advance northward across south central Kansas late this afternoon through early evening. However, storms are expected to remain east of a KHYS to KDDC line. Light north-northeast winds will persist across west central and portions of southwest Kansas north of a quasi-stationary frontal boundary extending from the eastern Texas Panhandle northeast into south central Kansas. Meanwhile, southerly winds around 15 to 25kt with gusts up to 35kt will continue across south central Kansas into eastern portions of southwest Kansas south of the boundary through early evening. North winds around 15 to 25kt with gusts up to 30kt are forecast to develop generally after 23-01Z behind a cold front pushing southward through western Kansas this evening.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ074>078- 084>088.