textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing thunderstorm chances (50-70%) for extreme southwest Kansas this evening.

- Another round of shower/thunderstorm chances (30-50%) Saturday.

- Warming trend expected through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

WV imagery indicates a southwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of an shortwave trough digging southeast through the Central Rockies. Near the surface, broad high pressure continues to drift east across the Great Lakes Region. Meanwhile, low pressure is developing across southern Colorado.

Thunderstorm chances (50-70%) increase early in the period as the SREF indicates an upper level shortwave trough dipping southeast into the northern Colorado Rockies tonight, supporting an increasingly difluent southwest flow across the high plains of eastern Colorado/western Kansas. Ahead of the approaching system, prevailing southeasterly upsloping will continue to reinforce deep layer moisture across southwest/central Kansas with surface dewpoints holding in the mid/upper 50s(F), providing marginal instability with MUCAPE values upward of 500 to 1000 J/kg, the highest out near the Colorado line. Combined with steepening mid-level lapse rates and favorable deep layer shear, thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon in southeast Colorado as ejecting H5 vort maxima interact with a quasi-stationary dryline then drift eastward, potentially into extreme southwest Kansas this evening. This is suggested by some CAMs and the HREF painting a 50-70% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.25 of an inch across portions of extreme southwest Kansas near the Oklahoma line by late evening. Severe potential will be limited with only modest instability present and marginal southwesterlies (+50kt) aloft. There is a minimal chance that showers/thunderstorms developing along an advancing cold front late afternoon into early evening in northeast Colorado, push southeast into northwest Kansas late this evening through the overnight. This is suggested by the HREF pointing to only a 10-30% probability of 6-hr QPF nudging over 0.1 of an inch by early Friday morning.

After a break Friday, thunderstorm chances (30-50%) return Saturday on the back side of a departing surface high, setting up an east- southeast upslope flow across southwest Kansas in conjunction with the arrival of a projected upper level shortwave trough transitioning through the Colorado Rockies. Ample moisture will provide sufficient instability as H5 vort maxima kick out of the Rockies, coninciding with steepening mid-level lapse rates, setting the stage for potential thunderstorm development Saturday afternoon/evening across southern portions of southwest Kansas as suggested by the NBM indicating a 10-30% probability of 12-hr QPF topping 0.25 of an inch by late Saturday evening.

More seasonal temperatures are expected tonight as prevailing southeasterly upsloping continues to slowly erode the cooler air mass that dominated the high plains of western Kansas the last couple of days. With increased cloud cover and surface dewpoints holding in the lower/mid 50s(F), look for lows only down into the lower/mid 50s(F) across extreme southwest Kansas where the HREF paints a widespread >90% probability of temperatures dropping below 60F to the lower 60s(F) in central/south central Kansas where the probability of slipping below 60F is only 30-50%. Despite a cold front edging through west central Kansas into portions of southwest Kansas by mid-afternoon Friday, expect slightly warmer temperatures compared to today as skies clear out west to east during the day. Expect widespread highs up into the 70s(F) with the HREF showing an 80-90% probability of temperatures exceeding 70F by late afternoon. Similar highs are likely Saturday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1100 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Sporadic areas of light rain will be possible through late afternoon. Additionally, thunderstorms developing in eastern Colorado late this afternoon are expected to drift into extreme southwest Kansas this evening, potentially affecting the vicinity of KGCK and KLBL. Otherwise, prevailing low level stratus will result in MVFR/IFR cigs persisting through early Friday. Patchy fog may lead to brief periods of MVFR vsbys as well.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.