textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Increased fire weather risk Thursday to at least Near-Critical conditions as dry south winds resume west of Highway 283 with a Fire Weather Watch in effect.

- A more significant Critical Fire day likely west of the dryline on Friday (especially west of Highway 283) with severe weather risk east of the dryline (15% combined severe outlook east of Coldwater to Great Bend line).

- Sub-freezing temperatures likely Saturday and/or Sunday morning as cold air mass drives south behind significant spring storm system.

- Continued serious fire weather risk into next week with very dry conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

The pattern is headlined by a deep trough situated over the Rockies and tilted westward with height. The corresponding surface low has just reach overhead of SW Kansas. The dryline has bisected Kansas and marginal storms formed along it earlier in the afternoon. With the exception of Friday, the CWA is forecasted to see more very dry weather and serious-to-critcal fire weather conditions all week.

Wednesday has highs forecast to be around 10 degrees cooler than Tuesday before quickly warming back up on Thursday back into the 80s. Similar to Tuesday, marginally severe storms may clip the far southeastern portion of the CWA namely Barber county. Most, if not all, will occur completely east of the area. With the lower highs, the relative humidities will not drop as far with only far SW Kansas reaching 10-15%. However, even with winds blending the 75th-90th via ensembles, gusts remain shy of fire weather headline criteria.

Thursday will be even drier with relative humidities as low as 7%. with nearly all of SW Kansas seeing <15%. The biggest question is if/where winds will be strong enough to warrant Red Flag Warning criteria. The current forecast only has areas near the CO/KS border nearing criteria. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect Thursday from noon to 9 PM CDT for the far SW Kansas. Winds are forecast from the south/southwest at 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. This will result in serious conditions due to the very dry conditions.

Friday will again host serious fire weather conditions in addition to a severe weather risk across the eastern zones. Ahead of the advancing low pressure trough, coupled jets, a warm and moist airmass, and strong forcing will allow for a potentially widespread and significant severe weather threat. For the CWA's perspective, a critical aspect is where the dryline sets up. The current forecast is that the dryline will reside between Dodge City and Pratt. Ensembles have agreement situating it near the Highway 183 corridor. In the coming days, it will be integral to see if this moves, and if the storms will have enough time in the CWA to mature and reach severe thresholds before moving eastward out of the area. With the system, a strong cold front is forecast to drop temperatures significantly and pushing lows in the western counties towards or below freezing. Highs Saturday are only forecast to warm up to the 60s.

Even with the cooler temperatures on Saturday, relative humidities are still forecast to be very dry down to 8-20%. The next few days are similar with the main focus solely on fire weather. The 8-20% relative humidity minimums are expected to linger deep into next week with winds from 10-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph. With little to no moisture expected, the dry and fire weather conditions are forecast to stay for the foreseeable future and pose a tangible threat. Take proper fire weather precautions all week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1136 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected for all sites through the TAF period. Some LLWS and sharp WSHFT have led up to the start of the period, but not forecast to last past 6Z. In the early hours, winds will settle out of the west/southwest at 10-15 KTS. By around 1Z winds will weaken drastically and become light and variable. Skies are forecast to be clear or mostly clear through the TAF period.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ061>063-074>077-084>087.