textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into the evening with the highest threat being between the lines of Rolla to Garden City to Wakeeney and Beaver to Greensburg to Great Bend.

- Wind and hail will be the main concern initially, becoming more of a wind threat as the storms form into a line. An isolated tornado can not be ruled out

- A sight chance of severe storms will be possible across south central and central Kansas tomorrow afternoon. Wind and hail will be the main concern with these storms

- Temperatures around 100 degrees are expected Today and along the KS/OK border tomorrow afternoon

- A wet and cooler pattern expected this weekend into the first part of next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

The main concern with the forecast will once again be the severe threat and the temperatures soaring to around 100 degrees today and tomorrow.

The synoptic pattern can be described as an upper level trough over the Intermountain west today, shifting eastward into the Plains tomorrow into Thursday. Upper level shortwaves will move around the periphery of this trough and towards the Central Plains this afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon. Upper level zonal west to east flow is then expected Thursday night through this weekend with an upper level trough digging into the Plains late weekend into the early part of next week.

For the actual forecast, high based thunderstorms are expected to form across southeastern Colorado this afternoon then congeal into a line of storms as they trek eastward across the CWA. Large hail and damaging winds are expected initially, then turn into more of a wind threat as they form into a line and head east. An isolated tornado can not be ruled out, especially if any storms form ahead of this line. SPC has maintained an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms between the lines of Rolla to Garden City to Wakeeney and Beaver to Greensburg to Great Bend. This is where they believe some of the storms could produce wind gusts at or above 75 mph. CAM models then show these storms weakening late evening as they approach central Kansas. Before these storms develop, expect strong southerly winds this afternoon with highs reaching to around 100 degrees across the entire CWA. Heat indices may approach 105 degrees across our eastern zones this afternoon and a heat advisory was issued to account for this.

After the storms move through or dissipate, expect cloudiness to decrease overnight with mostly clear skies expected throughout the day tomorrow. Winds will continue to be breezy and out of a southerly direction overnight, shifting to the north behind a cold front across the western half of the CWA after sunrise tomorrow. This cold front will then move through the remainder of the CWA tomorrow afternoon. Highs tomorrow are progged to reach into the 90s with the exception of along the KS/OK border where highs around 100 degrees will be found.

A few thunderstorms may form along the cold front late afternoon into evening hours. The atmosphere ahead of the cold front will be very unstable and any storms that do form will have the capability of becoming severe. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main concern with these storms. Storms should move out of the area tomorrow evening with mostly clear skies and dry conditions expected overnight through Thursday. Winds will become light and variable behind the front tomorrow afternoon then shift to a southerly direction tomorrow night. Mid range models show another cold front moving through the area Thursday shifting winds back to the north. As for temperatures, lows tomorrow night will range from around 60 degrees across west central Kansas to upper 70s across south central Kansas. Highs Thursday look to range from the mid 80s across west central Kansas to mid 90s across south central Kansas.

For the remainder of the forecast expect dry conditions Friday with increased precipitation chances Friday night through the early part of next week. Extended models show the possibility of an MCS or two moving through the Plains sometime this weekend into the first part of next week. Future model runs will need to be watched to get a better sense of timing and intensity. Temperatures during this time frame will start out with highs around 90 Friday, mid to upper 90s Saturday, then mid 70s to mid 80s Sunday into the first part of next week. Lows look to fluctuate between the 50s and 60s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 515 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Individual strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to track northeast while the line itself moves slowly east across southwest Kansas into central Kansas through late evening, potentially affecting the vicinity of all TAF sites. Otherwise, primarily VFR conditions are expected to prevail through early Wednesday. South- southwest winds around 15 to 25kt with gusts up to 30kt are forecast to persist through early Wednesday ahead of a lee side trough anchored near and along the Colorado line.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ066-081-090.