textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorm complex will continue to roll through southwest KS through early Friday morning. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat.

- Another round of severe thunderstorms is possible Friday evening favoring our far southwest zones, once again posing a primarily damaging wind gust threat.

- A strong upper level ridge will build over the weekend into next week, resulting in afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and little to no precipitation chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1045 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Radar observations late Thursday evening show an organized mesoscale convective system is in the process of rolling across southwest KS. This thunderstorm complex has a history of producing severe wind gusts as strong as 89 mph in northwest KS, and 68 mph in Kearny County. Given 1300-1400 J/Kg of DCAPE ahead of the line, plenty of MUCAPE, and deep-layer shear, this MCS is expected to be maintained through the rest of the evening into the overnight period, and will continue to pose a severe wind gust threat. Convection is progged by latest HREF members to exit our area by 08-09Z, and the remainder of the overnight period will be quiet with lows in the 60s and 70s.

In the wake of the overnight MCS, a combination of convective outflow and negligible 500-mb height rises will support afternoon temperatures on Friday near or slightly below normal, with highs ranging from the mid 80s around I-70 to the mid 90s along the KS/OK border. Later Friday evening, HREF members once again show convection approaching western KS by 00Z, ahead of a subtle upper level disturbance ejecting onto the central plains. However, insufficiently modified outflow from the previous night's MCS will limit convective coverage to our far southwest zones where the airmass will be more pristine. Any activity in this vicinity will pose a primarily damaging wind gust threat, although isolated large hail cannot be ruled out.

Daytime Saturday, short range ensembles agree a strong upper level ridge will build northward from the Desert Southwest to the central Rockies. Under increasing synoptic-scale subsidence, afternoon highs will warm into the low 90s north to the mid/upper 90s south. Beyond Saturday, further intensification of the upper ridge is forecast by all ensembles, with the core of the ridge becoming centered over the northern plains by Monday and remaining fixed in place through at least Wednesday. This synoptic evolution will favor multiple successive days of afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and little to no precipitation chances as NBM pops are quiet (<15%) through next Friday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 512 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR conditions will prevail with skies becoming mostly clear. Winds will be light and variable through tonight.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.