textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Low stratus clouds and areas of fog are expected Monday morning, with the sky only gradually clearing Monday afternoon.

- A marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms is forecast Monday and Tuesday afternoon/evening, but coverage will be limited. Storms favor northeast counties Monday, and northwest counties Tuesday.

- Two hot afternoons are expected Tuesday and Wednesday, with afternoon temperatures both days near 100.

- A cold front Thursday morning will provide a break from the heat on Thursday with milder north winds.

UPDATE

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

After coordination with WFOs Norman/Wichita, issued a heat advisory for Barber county for Monday afternoon and evening. Several hours of dewpoints in the 60s combined with air temperatures near 100 will produce heat indices of 105-107 across and near Barber county.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A quiet summer evening with high humidity and light southeast winds prevailing. Infrared satellite imagery showed a mostly clear sky, but have high confidence that widespread stratus and areas of fog will spread rapidly across much of SW KS through sunrise Monday. With a very moist upslope environment, expect stratus and reduced visibility to be common early Monday morning.

Temperatures Monday will be tied to how efficiently stratus clears during the day. The hottest temperatures, near 100, are expected adjacent to Oklahoma, closest to the building ridge, and where any stratus will be most fleeting. North of US 50, stratus may hold much of the day, particularly as shown by 00z NAM, maintained an easterly upslope component. As such, there may be a temperature forecast bust across northern counties, where stratus may hold some locations in the 80s or even 70s.

SPC maintains marginal 5% wind/hail probability across much of SW KS Monday afternoon/evening. 00z NAM develops strong to extreme instability, with CAPE > 4000 J/kg common by late Monday afternoon. But, triggering mechanisms are lacking. Warm temperatures at 700 mb will provide a capping inversion, and progressively rising heights will work against any convective development and maintenance. The longer stratus can persist across the northern zones, the harder it will be for convection to initiate. Several CAMS such as 00z ARW/RRFS/HRRR do show explosive thunderstorm development in the vicinity of/north of Hays around 4 pm. Any storm that can mature, and utilize the extreme instability, will be capable of potentially high end hail/wind, but confidence is low and coverage will be limited. Pops in the grids are minimal, favoring the northeast zones.

Tuesday promises to be windy and hot, as the atmosphere warms significantly at 850 mb, and south winds significantly increase. 850 mb wind fields suggests gusts of 35-45 mph will be common in the expected hot, well-mixed boundary layer. Afternoon temperatures of 98-102 are expected. Thunderstorm initiation appears likely at peak heating, as subsidence from the building heights does not appear too inhibitive. Storms will likely favor the northwest zones along a trough/convergence axis, and in a hot inverted-v environment, strong to severe outflow gusts would be the primary risk. SPC continues with another marginal 5% risk of wind/hail Tuesday.

The peak of the heat continues to focus on Wednesday, with near record high temperatures of 98-104 in the afternoon. A heat advisory may be required for the southeast counties, where heat index values of 105-107 are forecast by the NBM. Hottest temperatures will occur where SWly downslope compression can be maintained the longest, probably the preferred Red Hills southeast of DDC. A dry cold front is still scheduled for Wednesday night, followed by north winds and a break from the heat Thursday. There may be a storm across the southeast counties with this cold front passage Wednesday night, but clearly most locations will remain dry.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

High confidence widespread IFR/MVFR stratus will return to DDC/GCK/HYS through 12z Mon, in a moist upslope environment with light east/southeast winds. Lowest ceilings, down to LIFR, are forecast at HYS around 12z Mon. Reduced visibility to 1-2 sm in BR, with at least patchy fog expected. Consensus of models keep stratus out of LBL, so VFR was maintained for the LBL TAF for this period. Stratus and areas of fog are expected to dissipate by 18z Mon. Light winds will prevail through this period, mainly with an easterly component.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ090.