textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong southwest winds Monday gusting 35-45 mph.

- Near record heat Monday afternoon, with temperatures near 100.

- Scattered thunderstorms favoring the northwest zones Monday evening, with the primary risk of damaging outflow wind gusts of 60-70 mph.

- Strong cold front arrives Tuesday, with a large temperature gradient across SW KS (much cooler north, still hot south). Strong northeast winds and falling temperatures Tuesday afternoon.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night, some of which may be strong with locally heavy rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Strong summer subtropical ridge was centered over the Mississippi valley at midday, with southwest midlevel flow aloft over SW KS. Satellite imagery indicated the eastern periphery of the monsoon circulation over SW KS, with mid and high clouds northwest of Dodge City. Radar indicated a few sprinkles embedded in this monsoon plume across the northwest zones. CAMs are in good agreement that scattered thunderstorms will redevelop in this moisture plume after 4 pm, favoring these northwest zones. Primary risk in the hot, mixed boundary layer environment will be outflow winds of 50-70 mph, per SPC 5-15% wind probability for northern zones. High based thunderstorms should focus along I-70 Monday evening, and NBM correctly has its higher pops here.

Elsewhere, strong southwest winds will continue through sunset, gusting 35-45 mph. Downslope compression will send temperatures to near the records for September 14 (100 at DDC).

Fortunately, Monday's heat will be short lived, as a strong cold front will advance through SW KS Tuesday. With the cold front's timing during the diurnal heating cycle, a large temperature range will unfold Tuesday, from 60s and 70s north, to near 100 southeast. Cold front is expected to enter northern zones at sunrise, and exit Barber county by 7 pm. Exact high temperatures for each location will depend of frontal timing, and a non- diurnal curve downward is expected behind the front with elevated northeast winds. 12z GFS shows decent cold advection for September, with 850 mb temperatures falling through the teens C. Increasing and lowering midlevel clouds will also add to the fall-like feel Tuesday afternoon.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop along/behind the advancing cold front Tuesday afternoon/evening, favoring the southeast zones. Shear and instability will both be modest at best, but stronger storm clusters will be capable of outflow wind gusts, per SPC marginal 5% wind probability southeast zones. Cold front will begin retreating northward quickly Tuesday night, with winds quickly returning to the south through Wednesday. This warm advection process should encourage at least scattered showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall probable through Tuesday night.

NBM reloads above normal temperatures back into the lower 90s as soon as Wednesday, but much global model guidance keeps SW KS in the 80s. Higher confidence in the heat returning Thursday, well into the 90s, along with a dry forecast, as the western periphery of the subtropical ridge retrogrades westward onto the high plains. The heat will continue Friday afternoon, before the next strong cold front arrives next weekend. MEX and NBM guidance suggests some locations will remain in the 70s Sunday afternoon.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 455 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Radar at 2140z Mon depicted several strong thunderstorms near the HYS and GCK terminals, moving northeast. Some of this activity will impact GCK/HYS over the next few hours, with outflow wind gusts to near 50 kts the primary risk to aviation. Amendments are likely for GCK/HYS TAFs as storms approach. Light south winds will prevail overnight, with varying amounts of mid and high clouds. Models are trending stronger with the expected cold front passage Tuesday, expected to clear all airports by 18z Tue. Increased northeast winds behind the cold front, gusting 30-32 kts Tuesday, with lowering midlevel clouds. Ceilings may lower to MVFR Tuesday morning at GCK.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.