textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend continues through Wednesday with snowmelt continuing. The warmest day of the week will be Wednesday.

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry through Thursday.

- Much colder again Thursday through Saturday.

- Light snow possible Friday and Friday night; any amounts or impacts will be minimal.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 PM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Midday infrared satellite imagery depicted broken cirrus over Kansas, in response to a weak shortwave approaching, embedded in the NWly flow aloft. High pressure ridging is building over Kansas today, with light north to northeast winds prevailing and weak cold air advection. Although temperatures this afternoon are several degrees milder than the past several days, the amount of warm up is being restricted by this weak cold advection, the cirrus canopy, and the melting snowpack. A significant temperature range is projected at 4 pm, from near 30 at Hays to near 50 at Elkhart.

Cirrus will thin tonight, and along with light winds and residual snowcover, radiational cooling will allow temperatures to easily fall through the teens again.

Models have shown consistency forecasting Wednesday to be the mildest, most pleasant day of this week. Midlevel heights rise nicely, with 850 mb temperatures rebounding to the +7 to +8C range, in response to the next shortwave approaching from the northwest. Mixing will be weak, but weak westerly downslope will deliver a pleasant day for January standards, with most locations in the 40s Wednesday afternoon. The exception will be the far southwest zones, where snowcover is minimal, and 50s will return.

The warming trend will be cut short quickly, with the next dry shortwave forcing the next cold front through SW KS early Thursday. Models are trending stronger, faster, and colder with this system, with 12z MAV holding most locations in the 20s Thursday afternoon. North winds on MAV/GFS guidance are also much stronger than NBM guidance, near 20 mph sustained. Expectation is for Thursday's forecast to trend toward colder temperatures and stronger north winds, but still dry. A reinforcement of arctic air is progged to backdoor its way westward across Kansas Friday. Global models agree SW KS will be on the western periphery of this arctic airmass, so we will not be nearly as cold as the last arctic invasion. Still, experience suggests at least the eastern half of SW KS will be stuck in the 20s Friday afternoon. Temperatures Friday may still show a non-diurnal curve downward during the day, as strong 1050 mb arctic ridging builds southward through the plains. Models show continuity with the coldest temperatures Saturday morning, with 1046 mb high pressure allowing for air temperatures near zero eastern zones, single digits elsewhere. Another cold weather advisory will likely be required Saturday morning, especially northeast zones.

Models continue to advertise minimal light snow opportunities centered on Friday night, with some weak post-frontal frontogenetic forcing depicted in the various models. Moisture will be very limited, both by the northern trajectory and the dry arctic air. NBM continues with a 40-60% probability of measurable snow (>0.1 inch) over the northeast zones, so a dusting remains possible. NBM pops are quite low, favoring the I-70 corridor, Friday night. Any impacts will be limited, if any at all. One likely outcome is some midlevel clouds and a few flurries; this will not be a significant winter storm.

Strong SWly return flow is forecast Saturday, on the back side of the retreating arctic high. Saturday will still be uncomfortably cold in recycled continental polar air, before a rapid warming trend is enjoyed for the first couple days of February.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1004 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF period, with VFR/SKC, varying amounts of cirrus, and light winds.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.