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KEY MESSAGES

- Much cooler today after record highs Thursday

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect Saturday from 11AM-10PM CDT

- Sunday and Monday quickly warm back up to above normal highs before a potential mid-week pattern shift

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Strong winds and fire weather headline this forecast period. The synoptic pattern is primarily a zonal flow regime with a upper-level high over Texas. In the lower levels, a robust high pressure system resides over the southeastern Rockies depicted by RAP mesoanalysis. Strong winds have continued through the morning from the north continuing to advect very cold air. As a result, highs today are forecast to be held down in the upper 50s across SW Kansas. The cold air will be felt through the overnight with lows currently forecasted right at/below freezing.

Tomorrow is the forecast focus with strong winds and a Red Flag Warning from 11 AM - 10 PM CDT. With highs recovering up near and into the 70s once the winds shift out of the south providing WAA, relative humidities are progged to fall to 10-20%. This combined with the strong south winds at 20-35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Precautions are strongly advised.

By Sunday, highs are shown by ensembles to have fully recovered with isolated areas expecting 90 degrees across SW Kansas. Despite even drier relative humidities, winds are forecast to be much weaker (5- 15 mph) quelling most fire weather concerns. However conditions should still be monitored. Monday will be just as warm if not warmer.

The next pattern shift opportunity is midweek. Ensembles have ample disagreement on the exact details of the pattern, but a system moving into and across the region appears to be the consensus. Ensemble precipitation chances were mostly contained to Tuesday in previous runs and now have shifted to the bulk being on Wednesday, mostly along the northern counties. It is too early to dive into more precise details besides a cold front that again drops temperatures closer to normal highs. More precipitation chances return next weekend, even more temporal uncertainty remains compared to the midweek system. More details will come in the future forecasts.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 500 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

A surface high/ridge over western Kansas/Nebraska will move east overnight as surface pressures fall along the lee of the Rockies. This will cause winds to shift to the southeast by daybreak. These southerly winds will increase to near 25 knots between 15Z and 18Z Saturday as surface pressures continue to fall over eastern Colorado and stronger boundary layer winds mix down to the surface. Guidance and mixed layer winds from the BUFR soundings both suggest wind gusts greater than 35 knots are possible Friday afternoon. VFR condition are expected over the next 24 hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Fire weather concerns are prevalent the next few days with the apex on Saturday. Today will see strong winds, but relative humidities are only forecast down to 20-25%. Elevated fire weather conditions are therefor present, but falling shy of fire weather concerns. However if a fire ignites, it may be hard to control with the strong and clockwise shifting winds.

Saturday hosts a Red Flag Warning from 11 AM - 10 PM CDT. The forecast sets up for significant fire weather conditions with south winds of 25-35 mph and wind gusts up to 45 mph. This is in combination of relative humidity minimums from 12-20%. This could culminate dangerous conditions if a fire starts and grows out of control. Take all of the necessary fire weather precautions and be extra careful with ignition sources.

Sunday will have even lower relative humidities as low as 8%. This is offset by much weaker winds at only around 10 mph. For Sunday, and the entire fire weather concerns are present and fire weather precautions are needed. This is especially true for Saturday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Saturday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.