textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- A mild Sunday

- High fire danger Monday in the southwest

- Unsettled weather for the second half of the business week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

A very nice day to end the weekend is expected today. Highs today will be near perfect with values in the low 70s. A light southerly wind is expected today, although winds could become light and variable at times. The good news with these weak winds is that the fire danger for today will be nil given the weak winds. A dry airmass will prevail today, and afternoon relative humidity will still bottom out in the 10-20% range. Otherwise, the tranquil weather pattern will continue into the overnight hours and lows will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

On Monday a warm front will lift northward and will probably stall out as a stationary front, bisecting west-central Kansas. To the south of this boundary, a warm and very dry airmass will prevail during the day. Breezing southerly winds are expected south of the boundary. The combination of highs in the mid to upper 70s, low afternoon relative humidity, and breezy/gusty winds will set the stage for another Red Flag day across far southwest Kansas. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued to account for this high fire danger Monday. Please do not burn!

A very weak upper level wave is forecast to move across western Kansas Tuesday. This may lead to some scattered light showers across the FA during this period. Low level moisture will remain limited, so overall precipitation amounts will be on the very light side.

Downslope flow will strengthen across western Kansas Wednesday. 850 hPa temperatures are expected to increase into the 15C-20C range. This supports mixdown temperatures well into the 80s across southwest Kansas. A weak dryline looks to form during the day and will have to watch across far western Kansas near the Colorado border for any increasing fire danger. To the east of the dryline, higher dewpoints (most likely in the 40s), will lead to higher afternoon relative humidity and thus a lower fire danger for the central and eastern zones.

A cold front is forecast to traverse across the state early Thursday. This will lead to to highs in the 60s north to 70s south. An unsettled weather pattern is forecast by the long range models and their ensemble counterparts as we head into the end of the business week. Gulf moisture will advect northward into Kansas under broad southwesterly flow aloft. This will give us the weather pattern for showers and thunderstorms entering the forecast.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 557 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Light and variable winds will continue through this TAF period today and tonight as surface high pressure remains in control across western Kansas. The dry atmosphere in place will keep all airports in southwest and west central Kansas in VFR flight category.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Winds should be weak enough for no major fire weather concerns Sunday.

Attention then turns to Monday. A warm front will lift northward through the day. To the south of the warm front, warm and dry air will prevail. Highs should peak into the mid to upper 70s. Afternoon relative humidity is expected to bottom out in the 10-15% range. Breezy southerly winds are expected through the day. This will result in likely Red Flag conditions for far southwest Kansas. A Fire Weather Watch is now effect to headline the increasing fire danger Monday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for KSZ061>063-074>076-084>086.