textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginally severe storms may impact far southwest Kansas late tonight

- Weak "cool front" moves through late tonight into the morning hours

- Near normal temperatures over the weekend, hot next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

SPC has drawn up a risk level 1 out of 5 (marginal) for strong storms mid to late evening. The 12Z CAMs are in general agreement that storms are expected to develop off the Raton Mesa and could impact far southwest Kansas after 6 pm tonight. The main impact/threat would be strong outflow winds of 50 to 60 mph, since the environment will be hot and mixed with plenty of DCAPE forecast. Again, it looks like that far southwest Kansas stands to see the highest chance for storm activity tonight. The rest of the FA is likely to remain on the dry side. Otherwise, a weak boundary will move across the state late tonight and into the morning hours. The main impact will be wind shift with northerly gusty winds in the wake of the front. Otherwise, tonight will see lows mainly in the 60s.

The second impact from the passage of the weak boundary will be a slight cool down in highs. Actually, highs will be fairly close to normal values with highs peaking in the lower 90s. Lows once again in the 60s are expected heading into Sunday morning. No precipitation is expected other than the storms for Thursday evening.

The mid level anticyclone will move from the southwest part of the United States to over the Rockies and plains by Wednesday and Thursday. This supports the notion of a dry forecast with increasing highs through the business week. Highs should peak into the upper 90s to lower 10s as we close out the business week. Lows will also trend warmer with more 70s instead of 60s, as we finish out the rest of the period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1100 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

VFR is expected through TAF pd. A weak front will move through late tonight into the early morning hours. Expect winds to eventually become northerly and gusty in the wake of the front. These winds will continue through much of the day tomorrow. There is a chance of storms late evening, however, these storms may remain southwest of the terminals. Do not have high enough confidence to insert in the TAFs for now, particularly it appears overall impacts would be minor if so.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ086>090.