textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Shallow cold air mass will continue to wreak havoc on temperature forecasting across much of western Kansas through Tuesday.

- Patchy to areas of dense fog possible (only a 20-30% chance of 1/4 mile visibility) from Dodge City to WaKeeney to Hays to La Crosse Monday morning.

- A better chance for more widespread fog Tuesday morning north of a low pressure track

- Critical or Near-Critical fire weather conditions possible Thursday afternoon ahead of a deep low pressure system.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1251 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Temperature forecasting will be quite the challenge over the next couple of days thanks to lingering shallow cold air mass which will be difficult to erode. Today's temperatures were tracking fairly closely to 13Z NBM 5th to 10th percentile temperatures, which we have seen quite often in these shallow cold air mass situations. Given that, we will continue to follow colder guidance through the day Monday. 5th to 10th percentile NBM shows afternoon temperatures only in the mid to upper 40s across the eastern half of the DDC CWA. This still might not be cold enough in the afternoon, especially from Dodge City to Hays to Pratt as low clouds will be difficult to erode in the afternoon. Speaking of clouds and fog potential, latest HRRR and RAP models show expansion of 1/4 mile visibility, but other high resolution models are not quite a bullish with respect to visibility that low, and this is reflected in the 12Z HREF Prob Visibility 1/4 mile field, showing only 15 to 20% from DDC to La Crosse to WaKeeney and Hays.

The next low-amplitude, progressive short-wave trough will move across the Central Plains Tuesday. This will induce a fairly compact surface low, tracking pretty close to along the Kansas-Oklahoma line in the morning through early afternoon before weakening. This low track would likely keep most of southwest Kansas in the cooler air mass. Thus, the temperature forecast is highly uncertain with a likely tight gradient from near 80F in the south along the Oklahoma line to the upper 40s across northwestern Kansas. The feeling is that the GEFS ensemble system is too far north with the quasi- stationary front, allowing Dodge City afternoon temperatures well into the 60s to lower 70s (GEFS Mean of 69F at 18Z Tuesday at DDC). Look for future runs of the NBM to pull back on Tuesday temperatures as hopefully the GEFS starts to catch up with the magnitude of the shallow cold air mass (which the GFS and associated GEFS ensemble system always struggle with across western Kansas).

There will likely be a larger area of fog (possibly dense) and drizzle just to the north of the low track on Tuesday, and this would also keep temperatures from reaching even close to 60s along/north of the Arkansas River. Wednesday looks like a pretty quiet day in between storm systems but a larger low pressure system will develop out West on Thursday, inducing a deeper low pressure area at the surface/lee trough. Ingredients appear to be coming together for a critical or at least near-critical fire weather day across some portion of western Kansas, depending on how far east dry, strong southwesterly winds can reach into Kansas. Keep checking back on this part of the forecast, as there is quite a bit of uncertainty concerning how expansive any critical fire weather risk will be (A slower, deeper ECMWF solution would suggest gulf moisture farther west, which would keep RH higher across our area).

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1009 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Aviation weather will become increasingly difficult to forecast later this period as widespread low stratus and even some fog become likely. The latest HREF shows Probability of Ceiling < 1000 feet at 60% expanding west through the evening, reaching as far west as GCK terminal for a few hours tomorrow morning before scattering out. There is much higher confidence in IFR ceiling/visibility at DDC and HYS, but still some question as to how far down ceiling and/or visibility will get, but there is enough confidence to bring both DDC and HYS into LIFR for a few hours around sunrise. Stratus cloud at least into MVFR will likely stick around HYS much of the day Monday. Northeast winds will continue through this evening, becoming light and variable tonight through the end of this TAF period 18Z Monday

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.