textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across south central Kansas ahead of a cold front and later tonight along the KS/OK state line.

- Warmer weather is predicted my mid week with highs in the 80s.

- There are chances for rain Wednesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Non severe t-storms will develop along a cold front over south central Kansas this afternoon given 60F dewpoints and -14C cold pocket at 500mb. The next shortwave trough will pass across the high plains tonight. Much drier air in the wake of the front will limit the northern extent of thunderstorms that roll eastward from the lee of the mountains, with the best chances along the Oklahoma state line after midnight.

A weak shortwave through will approach from the west by Sunday, with marginal low level moisture surging northward. Upper level winds are progged to be weak so that organized severe t-storms are not forecast. However, isolated t-storms are expected in the afternoon given reasonably cold air at mid levels. Upper level ridging is forecast to develop across the high plains by Monday, with clear skies and highs in the 80s. The various model ensemble means indicate a large upper level trough forming over the western United States by early to mid next weak, which will serve to eject a weaker upper trough from the tropics into the southern plains. But there is high uncertainty in how fast this system will cross the plains. A slower solution would result in a prolonged period of rain chances Wednesday and Thursday while a faster solution would result in drying by Thursday. There is high variance among the model ensemble means and between individual ensemble members in regards to rain amounts. The larger upper level trough is expected to stall before reaching Kansas, with general upper level ridging developing by late next week. Chances for additional rain are low.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 509 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

In general VFR flight category and winds 12 kts or less for all the terminals during the time period. A couple upper level waves could lead to some spotty showers and thunderstorms around LBL from 06Z-09Z Saturday and then around GCK, DDC and LBL between 13-18Z. Should any rain go over a terminal cloud ceilings could fall to MVFR category.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.