textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot Saturday with a strong evening fropa

- Much cooler and pleasant Sunday

- Warm to hot business week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1122 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Today will be a hot one with highs mainly in the 90s. Low 100s will be possible along the lower terrain of south central Kansas. In fact, a heat advisory is in effect for Barber county, where the combination of heat and humidity will result in a heat index of around 105F. Otherwise, a prefrontal trof will prevail across the region during the day time. Behind this trof, a strong front is expected to traverse the region during the later afternoon to early evening period. Winds will shift north to northeast behind this front but will be southwesterly ahead of it along the trof. Otherwise, an upper level wave will move across the Northern Plains. This feature along with the front could spark off some storms. There is somewhat of a consensus in the CAMs and global models to keep the storms mainly across the southern zones. This is reflected in the NBM pops with the highest values along and south of Highway 50. Forecast skew-t/log-p's do suggest some of the storms could be strong to severe. Damaging winds and some large hail would be the main threats, in addition to heavy rainfall. Otherwise, the rest of the FA will remain dry tonight. Lows heading into Sunday morning will be cooler as drier air advects in from the north.

Sunday will be as near as a perfect weather day as you are going to get in June. Highs only in the 70s, low humidity, and light winds. Get out and enjoy it as the next business week is going to trend much hotter and b e more typical of weather in the month of June.

For Monday onward, the long range models and their ensemble counterparts suggest mid level ridging across the western half of the United States. This would support the notion of a dry forecast and very warm to hot temperatures prevailing for much of the week. The hottest day forecast is Wednesday. Low 100s looks likely. In fact, the Grand Ensemble is showing about a 30% probability of highs greater than 100F Wednesday. Something to watch and would bet that those probabilities increase as Wednesday draws near. Beyond Wednesday, the ENS does hint at the possibility of storms returning to the forecast by Friday evening.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1122 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Winds will be light SE 5-10 kt through the overnight. A prefrontal trof is expected to prevail tomorrow morning with winds shifting SW 15-20 kt with gusts around 25 kt. A strong fropa is expected during the evening with winds shifting N to NE around 20-25 kt with gusts around 30-35 kt through the end of the TAF pd. Storms will be possible tomorrow evening, however, confidence is too low in terms of spatial extent to include in the TAFs for now.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ090.