textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- A flood watch remains in effect for much of western Kansas through Thursday.

- Numerous showers and a few t-storms will spread eastward today and become more widespread in the afternoon.

- Heavier rain is forecast for tonight into Wednesday, with widespread totals of 1 to 3" (lower amounts in south central Kansas). Localized amounts of greater than 3" to as much as 4 +" are possible.

- A tornado or two can't be completely ruled out Wednesday afternoon.

- Temperatures will likely dip into the 40s Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

A deep upper level trough over the Desert Southwest will merge with the remnants of Hurricane Polo early this week and then move into southwest Kansas. Ahead of the system, widespread showers are expected today, with rain spreading from west to east. Some thunder could occur with the initial showers as some potential instability will exist. Preciptable water values (up to 1.8") are forecast to increase to above the 99th percentile given the deep tropical moisture.

Looking back through history, heavy rains from the remnants of tropical systems are very rare across western Kansas. Atlantic- Gulf systems tend to curve to the east of the high plains while Pacific storms typically dry out over the mountains, with only light to moderate rain occurring. In this particular case, the tropical system will get steered to the north and east and accelerate due to the approaching upper level storm, leaving less time for weakening. Historical tropical systems that weakened and then dumped heavy rain across the high plains include the Galveston Hurricane of 1900 (4 to 6" from north of Dodge City into eastern Nebraska and southern Minnesota) and the September hurricane of 1919 (8 to 14" across parts of western and northern Kansas), both of which were Atlantic/Gulf storms.

By tonight the remnants of Hurricane Polo will be absorbed into the large upper trough and accelerate northeastward across the southern Rockies into the southern high plains. The heaviest rain will spread northward Tuesday night into Wednesday and end from south to north Wednesday afternoon and night. Although the various ensemble means indicate widespread 1 to 3" rains, with highest along and west of a line from Dodge City to Hays, there will likely be narrow corridors in areas of training that get a lot more. This is supported by the grand ensemble 75th and 90th percentiles for rain amounts over the period from Tuesday through Thursday of 3 and 4" respectively. Thus, the flood watch was maintained for the Tuesday to Thursday time frame. Additional periods of rain are likely Wednesday night and Thursday as the upper low will be very slow to move away from the high plains.

T-storms are expected to form Wednesday afternoon in the wake of the heavy rain as the surface low and mid level dry intrusion arrive from the southwest. If modest insolation occurs and temperatures rise at least into the upper 70s, along with 70F dewpoints, then any convective inhibition would vanish, leading to isolated t-storms. Given the very warm temperatures at upper levels, which is characteristic of early autumn, lapse rates will not be supportive of very large hail; but marginally severe hail and damaging winds can't be ruled out. However, given the increasing vertical wind shear ahead of the surface low, with with low level southeasterlies and moderate southwesterlies at mid levels, a few tornadoes can't be ruled out. The only significant tornado in western Kansas associated with the remnants of a tropical system occurred on 15 August 1880 in Dighton when 1 person was killed; but this was also an Atlantic- Gulf storm. There is no record of this officially; but local office research uncovered the event.

The coolest air of the season will arrive Saturday morning as an upper level trough traverses the northern tier of states and pushes a cold front southward. Expect temperatures to fall into the 40s across much of western Kansas by sunrise Saturday as winds become light. This is only slightly below the climatological average of 50. One limiting factor for temperatures is all the rain we will receive prior to the cool air arrival, resulting in higher dewpoints and less potential for radiational cooling. This will not be a very cold air mass by late September standards; but it will be a marked change from the late summer heat.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 511 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Ceilings will lower into the MVFR category between 13z and 16z today as scattered thunderstorms spread into southwest Kansas. These MVFR ceilings will then drop into the IFR category between 00z and 06z Tuesday as ensembles indicated a period of steadier and heavier showers spread into southwest Kansas. With these showers later today and especially overnight visibilities will occasional drop into the 2 to 3 mile range. After 06z models and guidance both indicate that LIFR ceilings will be possible as scattered thunderstorms, heavy at times, continue.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Thursday evening for KSZ030-031-043>046- 061>064-074>078-084>087.