textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Decreased chance of severe storms this evening with the greatest threat southeast of southwest Kansas and northwest of west central Kansas.

- Little to no severe weather risk through the end of the weekend into early next week given poor vertical wind shear.

- Wednesday appears to be the hottest day next week ahead of the next weak cold front with widespread upper 90s to lower 100s for highs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

A fairly large early morning mesoscale convective system (MCS) rolled east across portions of southwest and central Kansas, which left in its wake a region of higher pressure and more stable air. The outflow boundary from this MCS pushed south well into northwest/north central Oklahoma, such that early afternoon temperatures were generally in the 84 to 87F range across much of southwest Kansas. Winds north of the original outflow boundary have become southeasterly, but a secondary boundary was pushing south through southwest Kansas with increasing northeasterly winds expected to develop again later in the afternoon. Lack of low level convergence and stable lower troposphere air should prevent renewed development of strong to severe thunderstorms across our 27-county warning area. Latest runs of the HRRR and 12Z GSL RRFS ensemble system certainly support this notion keeping all the organized, deep moist convection across the Texas Panhandle and northern Oklahoma.

Another area of thunderstorm activity will move across northeastern Colorado this evening, eventually growing upscale into a small to perhaps modest MCS, but trends in latest short term high resolution models show any MCS will weaken due to lack of low level inflow and instability, largely due to the fact that recovery behind this morning's MCS has been difficult to come by.

Late weekend (Sunday) into early next week, the pattern will become less favorable for organized thunderstorm activity as mid and upper level winds become very weak -- aligning quite well with early July climatology for southwest Kansas. Afternoon temperatures will likely get hotter each day starting Monday with Wednesday looking to be the hottest day with widespread upper 90s to lower 100s for highs ahead of the next weak cold front. The larger scale summer subtropical high will finally build in late next week into the weekend, centered across Utah into Colorado eventually expanding northward across the Rockies. This would likely keep the hottest temperatures off to our northwest in this pattern, and not squarely over western Kansas, so it does not appear there will be a setup any time soon with multiple days in a row of 100+ heat.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 500 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR expected through TAF pd. Light NE winds tonight. Winds will become light and variable through the overnight. A light SE wind is expected by tomorrow afternoon.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.