textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty north winds 20 to 25 mph early this afternoon will decrease to 10 mph towards sunset.

- A brief warmup returns mid week across southwest Kansas with highs rebounding back into the upper 50s to lower 60s on Wednesday with highs in the 65 to 70 degree range on Thursday. - Widespread rain likely Friday through early Saturday. Total rainfall amounts are uncertain but the chance for 24 hour rainfall totals over 1/2 inch east and south of Dodge City is 50-60%.

- Dry conditions with a warming trend returns early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1102 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Earlier this morning, water vapor imagery and upper air analysis indicated a westerly flow aloft across the central and western United States. A sharp cold front has moved through the Central Plains over the last 6 hours as an upper level trough exits the northern Mississippi Valley and moves into the Great Lakes Region. Behind this front, a cool dome of high at the surface was located across the Dakotas and Nebraska. Further west, an upper level low was located just off the California coast. This feature will be the primary player for our late week weather.

The main story for today is the post frontal cooldown and gusty winds. As the surface high builds into the area from the north this afternoon a tight pressure gradient currently over southwest Kansas at 2pm today will gradually decrease by late afternoon. High temperatures will struggle to reach the mid 50s which is a significant drop from the very warm temperatures observed across southwest Kansas on Monday. The wind will continue to decrease overnight. Given the light winds and clear skies expected as the surface high builds across the Central Plains, conditions will favor the current NBM lows, with temperatures bottoming out mainly in the mid to upper 20s. A few locations, mainly those prone to cold air drainage, may even dip near 20 degrees by early Wednesday morning.

Warmer temperatures briefly return Wednesday and Thursday. On Wednesday, the surface high over Kansas will move into the Mississippi Valley. This allows the low level flow to veer back to the south as improving downslope westerly flow develops across the Central Rockies. On Thursday, as the downslope flow continues, unseasonably warm 850mb temperatures will spread across southwest Kansas. This will result in temperatures rebounding back into the upper 50s to lower 60s for Wednesday, with highs on Thursday being in the 60s, and even a few 70s being possible near the Oklahoma border.

The chance for accumulating rainfall increases from early Friday morning through Saturday as a California upper low tracks across the Desert Southwest. As this system approaches west Texas Thursday, clouds will be on the increase as improving moisture and lift develops across southwest Kansas which will be north of a stationary surface boundary forecast to extend from eastern New Mexico to southern Oklahoma. The best Gulf moisture return, according to ensemble integrated vapor transport, is expected late Friday into early Saturday and be mainly over Oklahoma as isentropic lift improves north of this surface boundary. It also appears that the latest ensembles have have shifted the higher Precipitable Water values and QPF slightly further south/southeast. While this suggests lower rainfall totals for southwest Kansas than previously forecast Friday/Saturday, widespread rain is still likely (60-80%) south of the Arkansas river given the lift and moisture from Friday through early Saturday. The chance for 24 hour rainfall totals exceeding 1/2 inch, ending 6 PM Saturday for areas from Dodge City east and south, is 50-60%. This is a decrease from the 75-80% chance forecast yesterday. Unfortunately at this time the exact rainfall totals remain uncertain due to the track and moisture return uncertainty. However based on the current expected lift and PWATs ranging from 0.6 to 0.9 inches, the latest NBM 24 hour totals (0.25 to nearly 1 inch, with the highest amounts over south central Kansas) appear to be in the ballpark, mainly the prolonged period of rain occurs.

Looking ahead from Saturday night through early next week, as the upper trough moves east of western Kansas, the rain will end. Ensemble clusters indicate that an upper level ridge will move across the central United States as another Pacific upper level trough begins to move east across the western United States and approach the Central Rockies. This pattern will allow a return to a period of dry weather and temperatures trending 15-20 degrees above seasonal norms by early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 452 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Tranquil aviation weather will continue through this TAF period as surface high pressure moves across Kansas tonight into early Wednesday. Winds were dropping off to 10 to 15 knots as of 2245Z, and will decrease further to 6 knots or less shortly after sunset. Winds will remain light much of Wednesday but pick up in speed out of the south at LBL and HYS terminals by afternoon in response to departing surface high. Flight category will remain VFR with widespread subsidence across western Kansas.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.