textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures continue today, with highs in the 100-105 range.

- Showers and weak thunderstorms are possible across our western zones today and tomorrow, posing little to no threat.

- Essentially no change to the forecast through the end of the period as above normal temperatures and limited precipitation chances continue.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1130 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis at midday show ridging is spread out from the southern plains eastward through the east coast, with a strong cut-off low over the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, broad low pressure extends across nearly the entirety of the High Plains, supporting 10-20 mph southerly winds in southwest KS. Short range guidance indicates no change in the overall pattern will occur through the remainder of the day, and another day of strong solar insolation with limited cloud cover will result in afternoon temperatures peaking in the 100-105 degree range once again. Later this afternoon, HREF members suggest scattered showers and weak thunderstorms will meander into western KS after 22Z. Given meager upper level support and weak deep-layer shear/instability, this activity will remain comfortably sub-severe. Overnight, partly to mostly cloudy skies and light south-southeast winds are expected with lows dropping into the 65-75 degree range.

Rinse and repeat the forecast for Saturday as strong upper level ridging promotes another warm, sunny day with highs in the 97-102 degree range, along with similar weak convective activity favoring our western zones during the afternoon. Sunday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles agree the upper ridge will be virtually stationary, wobbling only slightly from east to west. This synoptic evolution will lock in above normal temperatures along with limited precipitation chances across the central plains for the foreseeable future. Beyond the scope of this forecast period, long range ensembles are hinting at a possible break in the heat sometime around late next week/early the following week. Now, any forecast at this range is highly dubious, and should be taken with several grains of salt, but there is at least a modicum of hope that fall temperatures are on the distant horizon.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 548 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

The large scale pattern will continue to support southerly winds through this TAF period, although early in this period a cluster of thunderstorms, possibly impacting GCK and/or LBL airports, will alter the pressure gradient enough to disrupt the continued south/southeast winds 12-18 knots, but we will likely see a return to the these winds at all airports by mid-morning Saturday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ031-046-065-066- 079>081-089-090.