textproduct: Dodge City
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Rain dissipating by mid-day.
- Much cooler temperatures and gusty winds today.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 238 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025
WV imagery indicates a deepening upper level trough of low pressure digging southeast through the Central Plains. Near the surface, a strong cold front is pushing southeast through south central Kansas into northern Oklahoma.
Any lingering showers in central/south central Kansas will quickly dissipate by late morning according to radar trends/CAMs. Otherwise, the SREF indicates the upper level trough evolving into a closed low as it digs farther southeast through the Central Plains today and into the Deep South later tonight, giving way to a north-northwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, strong northerly winds in wake of the frontal passage will usher much drier air into western Kansas today into Wednesday, resulting in a dry conditions through the end of the week.
Unseasonably cool temperatures are forecast today as cooler air surges southward through western Kansas, lowering H85 temperatures near to just below 5C by this afternoon. With skies clearing west to east today, look for highs generally up into the 50s(F) considering the HREF paints a widespread >90% probability of temperatures exceeding 50F, but <10% probability of exceeding 55F in west central/extreme southwest Kansas to a 70-90% probability of temperatures nudging above 55F in south central Kansas. Similar temperatures are expected Wednesday.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Oct 28 2025
A line of showers with embedded thunderstorms will track southeast through southwest Kansas into south central Kansas overnight, potentially affecting all TAF sites. Otherwise, prevailing low level stratus will scatter out west to east through mid/late morning as well as any lingering areas of fog, returning VFR conditions to all TAF sites by early afternoon. Northerly winds 20 to 30kt with gusts up to 40 to 45kt are expected to develop west to east through daybreak in wake of a strong cold front pushing southeast through southwest/central Kansas into northern Oklahoma.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Freeze Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning for KSZ065-066-078>080-086>088.
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