textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- A break in the heat is expected across southwest Kansas on Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures will average between 15 and 20 degrees cooler. Highs will range from the mid 60s to around 70. This cool air will linger through late week. - Widespread beneficial rainfall possible across southwest Kansas mid week.

- Temperatures will gradually warm back to more seasonal readings by the start of the weekend with scattered thunderstorms being possible almost each day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1107 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Gusty north winds developed earlier this evening behind a cold front that was crossing southwest Kansas. At 10 PM, this cold front extended from northwest Oklahoma into south central Kansas as cooler air invades southwest Kansas. These gusty north winds will gradually subside overnight, becoming 15 to 20 mph by daybreak on Tuesday. Wind gusts at or above 35 mph however will be possible at times through 4am. An area of surface high pressure at the surface will cross the Central Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday as a northern branch upper wave crosses the northern plains. This will result in unseasonably cool air settling into southwest Kansas, with highs on Tuesday averaging 15 to 20 degrees cooler compared to Mondays highs.

This cool air intrusion will linger across southwest Kansas through mid week as the cold front/stationary boundary remains south of the Oklahoma border. Along with this cooler air settling into southwest Kansas early in the week there will be improving moisture and lift developing north of this boundary (across southwest Kansas) Tuesday night through Thursday. As a result in addition to these cooler temperatures, there will be improving chances for accumulating rainfall mid to late week as western United States upper level trough approaches from the west. Based on the latest ensemble cluster, the best opportunity for widespread accumulating rainfall will occur from Wednesday night through Thursday as the upper trough over the Western United States moves east across the Rockies and out into the Plains. All of the ensemble clusters forecast a greater than 70% chance of accumulating precipitation (>0.1 inch) over the 24hour period ending at 7 PM Thursday. Furthermore 60-70% of these clusters indicated a 60-80% chance of 24hour rainfall totals exceeding a quarter of an inch between 7 PM Wednesday and 7 PM Thursday. Please keep in mind that it is still too early to tell where and how much rainfall will occur from this upcoming event but for what it is worth...if the current ensembles are correct the higher rainfall will be over extreme southwest Kansas.

As we look at the upcoming weekend period...conditions will continue to favor an opportunity for scattered thunderstorms almost each day across some portion of southwest Kansas as a series of upper level troughs cross the Central Plains. Currently the chances for widespread accumulating rainfall from these storms are not anticipated. As for temperatures it looks like they will be climbing back to more seasonal readings for the last half of May.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1107 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Low clouds and gusty north winds are expected overnight as a cold front moves south across Oklahoma as of 04z. Wind gusts near 30 knots are possible until 09Z this morning. These gusty winds will decrease early Tuesday as high pressure builds into western Kansas. The low clouds, which will be between 1000 and 2500 feet AGL, are expected to linger through daybreak, with VFR conditions returning to southwest Kansas shortly after sunrise based on BUFR soundings and LAMP guidance. 60-80% chance of 24hour rainfall totals exceeding a quarter of an inch between 7 PM Wednesday and 7 PM Thursday

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.