textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- After a few early morning showers and thunderstorms, today will feature much cooler temperatures and cloudy skies.

- There are chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon along the OKlahoma state line and tonight through Saturday across all of central and southwest Kansas.

- Generally warm weather is predicted over the next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1221 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

An upper level storm system traversing the northern plains is pushing a cold front through Kansas this morning. With plentiful post-frontal moisture and cloud, expect temperatures to only reach into the 40s and 50s for highs today for most of western Kansas, with milder 60s along the OKlahoma state line. As the front passes this morning, chances of t-storms shift gradually southeastward. Light drizzle is possible later today and tonight in the cool air north of the front; but it is often a struggle on the high plains to get moisture to extend deep enough for measurable drizzle. Any thunderstorms this evening will likely be to the south and west of Kansas in the warm sector; and any convection forming along the Raton Mesa will have trouble moving into western Kansas given the cold air in place. Leftover showers could make it into western Kansas tonight. However, as a warm advection pattern develops tonight, showers with a rumble or two of thunder are possible, especially from Dodge City north and east to Hays and Larned. On Saturday, deep moisture will be in place with marginal instability and weak capping. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast; but these will probably not be severe.

The Sunday through Tuesday period will be warm and mainly dry. A strong upper level trough is progged to move across the southern and central plains; but all of the ensemble guidance indicates the low level moisture will be east of here, with the only chance of severe weather at Medicine Lodge and points south and east. Despite the presence of a dry line Sunday and Monday over south central Kansas, forcing for ascent will be very weak so that storms may not form at all. The best chance of an isolated storm or two may be Tuesday evening along a dry line in south central Kansas; but by this time the main forcing for ascent and low level moisture may be well east.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1159 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

A cold front is passing across southwest Kansas this morning, resulting in a wind shift to the northeast at 15+ kts. There are chances for showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front at KDDC through 09z. Low level humidity will increase after the front passes so that low MVFR and IFR CIGS are likely to develop between 09 and 12z at KDDC/KGCK and KHYS. The front will arrive later at KLBL, with MVFR CIGS developing by 16-17z. There are additional chances for showers tonight as a warm advection pattern develops over the front, especially at KDDC and KHYS. CIGS will lower to IFR after 00z if not already there.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1221 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

A strong storm system will develop across the Southwest Sunday and move across the plains by Tuesday, with near critical to critical fire weather expected all three days. High-end fire weather is possible Tuesday as a strong southwesterly dry intrusion develops in the warm sector of a strong surface low pressure area. However, this is dependent on the exact timing of the dry intrusion. Given that this is several days out, uncertainty is high.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.