textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Significant winter storm and bitter arctic air is forecast to impact much of southwest Kansas

- Winter storm watch expanded to include all of southwest Kansas with higher probabilities (greater than 50%) of widespread 4+ inches of snow with 8-10 inch potential in south central Kansas

- Arctic air mass arrives Friday and could linger through Monday with dangerous wind chill values around -15 to -20 for Saturday and Sunday morning and air temperatures struggling to get to the single digits on Saturday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

08Z surface and upper air analysis shows a broad trough across the northern plains and Great Lakes and the leading edge of an arctic air mass moving into North Dakota and Minnesota. An upper low is located just off the coast of California. A 1013 mb surface low is located in northeast New Mexico with a frontal boundary near the I-70 corridor.

Overall today should be tranquil weather wise across southwest Kansas. The weak frontal boundary will move south to southeast through the day and we should start to see the winds turn to the northeast by late in the afternoon for much of the area. This will be the last relatively mild day for a while as highs get into the mid to upper 40s.

A large and major winter storm is still on track to affect much of the central and southern plains. There is still uncertainty with the track and location of the heaviest snow but what is for certain is that the arctic air will arrive early enough in Kansas that it should be an all snow event. The arctic front should arrive and move through southwest Kansas by sunrise Friday morning and with cloud cover and northeast winds all day we should have little to no diurnal heating. Models have been trending at developing the snow a little later in the morning into the early afternoon with the better lift in the dendritic growth zone starting in our northern counties. A caveat to that is that their will also be drier air at the surface to start with the arctic air mass that may take a couple hours to saturate before we see snow accumulate in these areas. We should see light to moderate snow develop especially after 21Z for most of southwest Kansas with moderate bands of snow developing in the overnight hours as the 850-700 mb lift intensifies with a slow moving shortwave in eastern Colorado. By Friday night with the arctic air mass in place and NBM and short term models forecasting a 15:1 SLR we should see light and fluffy snow accumulate through the night in much of southwest Kansas with a 40-50% chance we receive 4 inches or more along and east of highway 283 by sunrise Saturday morning. During the day on Saturday the models are hinting at a brief shutdown of snow as drier air intrudes from the northeast and with the shortwave moving into central Kansas the lift will cease for a time. Where models are diverging in thinking is the next area of lift from Saturday night into Sunday morning when the 500 mb shortwave ejects into Texas and the upper level winds close off a 700 mb low in central Kansas by Sunday morning. A few models such as the RRFS and NAM hint at another round of accumulating snow for southwest and south central Kansas while global models are still thinking the event should be ending Saturday night. This uncertainty could be the difference between an additional 2-4 inches of snow on top of what we receive and this will be the part of the forecast to watch closely. Overall the highest probabilities (greater than 60%) of receiving greater than 6 inches of snow continues to be along and east of a Liberal to Dodge City to La Crosse line.

The other headline will be the arctic air mass that will produce the coldest temperatures so far for the winter season. Newest model trends show colder 850 mb temperatures and given we are forecast to receive several inches of snow a longer duration of the arctic air staying in place. Updated 850 mb temperatures are forecast to be as cold as -20 (C) starting Friday morning in our north and lasting well into Sunday with little moderation showing up through Monday. With that I opted to drop temperatures to the colder NBM percentiles from Friday through Monday with highs struggling to get into the single digits on Saturday and air temperatures below 0 for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday mornings. A cold weather advisory is in effect for the entire area starting Friday night as forecast wind chills will be in the -15 to -20 range. -20 or colder is consider an extreme cold warning for areas south of highway 96 so there is a possibility the advisory may be upgraded if newer forecasts show colder trends with the airmass.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 504 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period. Cloud ceilings should fall quickly towards the end of the period as an arctic front moves through western Kansas and a storm system approaches. MVFR flight category should be expected shortly after 12Z. Winds in general should be 12 kts or less sustained until the arctic front moves through between 09-12Z and then winds will increase to 15-20 kts.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday night for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Friday to noon CST /11 AM MST/ Sunday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081- 084>090.