textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal Risk for severe weather west of Route 283; localized damaging winds and hail

- One more day of seasonal temperatures; hotter Friday into weekend

- Seasonable temperatures with varying rain and storm chances throughout next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 116 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Similar to yesterday, isolated to widely scattered strong to severe storms will be possible across western Kansas, mainly west of Route 283. Storms are once again expected to develop late this afternoon across eastern Colorado and track into western Kansas into this evening after 21z. Weak flow in the mid levels will once again limit overall storm organization, but with MUCAPE of 2500+ J/kg and DCAPE 1500+ J/kg, any stronger storm will be capable of damaging downdraft winds and hail up to around quarter size. A MRGL risk is maintained to highlight this potential. Heavy rainfall will also accompany storms and localized flooding will be possible as well. Temperatures will be in the 90s across central and western Kansas, with southerly winds 15-25 mph and gusts 30-35 mph common.

Temperatures will increase into Friday and the first half of this weekend with triple digits likely making a return to the area. Widespread upper 90s to low 100s will occur during the afternoon both Friday and Saturday. Anyone partaking in outdoor holiday activities should be mindful of the heat and stay in shaded areas and drink plenty of fluids.

Normal temperatures return by Sunday and throughout much of next week. A slight warming trend may once again commence late week. Latest NBM POPs vary throughout the remainder of the forecast period, with wide variability day to day. Therefore, any particular day of coverage and severity confidence is uncertain at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1125 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Thunderstorms in the vicinity of GCK will continue to slowly track eastward to start the period. Main concern from these storms is heavy rainfall and gusty winds, though severe weather is not expected with weakening storms. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail throughout the TAF period with southerly winds 15-20 knots with higher gusts to around 30 knots at times. Storms will once again be possible across western Kansas Thursday late afternoon and evening, mainly after 21z, but latest guidance suggests storms will likely stay away from direct impact at the terminals, therefore, left out mention of storms at this time in the TAFs. With new data later this morning and tomorrow afternoon, perhaps a mention of storms would be needed.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.