textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Near Elevated or Elevated Fire Weather conditions possible this afternoon, mainly west of highway 83.

- Warm Temperatures continue Today. High temperatures are expected to reach the 70s and potentially the low 80s.

- A chance for rain Wednesday night but only light accumulations expected. There is less than a 20% chance for rainfall totals to be greater than 0.1 inch.

- Cooler Temperatures will return to southwest Kansas over the weekend. High temperatures are expected to drop from the 70s on Friday into the mid 40s and 50s by Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Earlier this evening, a surface trough of low pressure was located over eastern Colorado. Gusty south winds were occurring east of this deepening surface boundary late Monday afternoon across southwest Kansas. 850mb temperatures at 6pm Monday evening ranged from 6C in the Hays area to near 13C along the Colorado border. The 500mb ridge was located just west of the Rockies, resulting in a northwest to western downslope flow across eastern Colorado and western Kansas.

A surface trough of low pressure will move across western Kansas today. Along and west of this boundary the 850mb temperatures are forecast to be between 15C and near 20C by 6pm Tuesday, which is about 5C warmer than Monday evening. As a result, the NBM still looks reasonable and was similar to previous runs in forecasting high temperatures well into the 70s across southwest Kansas today. Some areas in extreme southwest Kansas could even reach the lower 80s. These warmer temperatures will generally be found west of Highway 283. Although these temperatures will be 25 to 30 degrees above seasonal norms, they will still remain several degrees below the record highs for this date (February 24th). FYI...the record high for Garden City on 2/24 is 80 degrees, for Dodge City it is 79, and for Medicine Lodge it is 84.

In addition to these warm conditions, dry west winds will develop west of the surface trough. Afternoon humidities are forecast to drop to 10% or less west of Highway 83. Humidity values as low as 10 to 15% will be possible as far east as Coldwater, Greensburg, Larned, and Hays. Despite the lower humidity today compared to Monday, the winds are expected to be weaker. The NBM 90th percentile on wind speeds keeps wind speeds below 20 mph, and the HRRR maximum wind gust potential and latest BUFR sounding mixed layer winds also favor this weaker wind speed solution. As a result, despite the lower afternoon humidity later this afternoon, only near elevated or elevated fire weather conditions are expected due to these light winds. Nonetheless, these conditions will still create an environment where fires can more easily escape control and be difficult to contain. Outdoor burning is strongly discouraged.

The upper level ridge over the western high plains will weaken and shift west Tuesday night and Wednesday as an upper level trough crosses the Northern Plains. This will bring a weak cold front across southwest Kansas mid week, mainly resulting in a wind shift. While temperatures may be slightly cooler...they will remain 15 to 20 degrees above seasonal normals. A stronger push of cooler air arrives Wednesday night as the next upper level trough approaches the Central Plains. Moisture and lift will improve ahead of this next upper level trough as this cold front passes leading to a 30-50% chance for light rain showers north and east of Dodge City. Latest WPC QPF amounts remain low given that there is less than a 20% chance for rain to be greater than 0.1 inches. In addition the ensemble means were staying below 0.05 inches. Surface high pressure builds in by Thursday, providing clear skies and warmer temperatures for the end of the work week.

As we head into the weekend period, we will be monitoring the potential for a more significant cool down as our next upper level trough moves across the northern plains and a cold front pushes into Kansas. Temperatures are currently forecast to drop from the 70s on Friday into the mid 40s and 50s by Sunday. Ensemble data shows high confidence (greater than 70 percent chance) in this cooling trend given that the mean 850mb temperatures will be falling from the teens on Friday to then near 5C by Sunday evening. Also 60-70% of the ensemble clusters have these temperatures at or below what the grand ensemble suggest.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1100 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Earlier this evening a 40 to 45 knot low level jet was located over southwest Kansas. This low level jet will move east overnight as a surface boundary crosses western Kansas. As this boundary passes between 09Z and 15Z Tuesday, the south southwest wind at 10 to 15 knots will become west. During the afternoon these west winds at 10 to 15 knots will gradually shift around to the southeast in response to falling pressures across eastern Colorado. BUFR soundings indicate only high level moisture can be expected across southwest Kansas, so VFR conditions are forecast over the next 24 hours.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.