textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and breezy this afternoon with highs 104-106F across far southwest Kansas -- Heat Advisory in effect for far southwest Kansas.

- Pattern change with cold front approaching Tuesday. Temperature forecast challenge with 10 to 15 degree spread among models Tuesday through Thursday.

- 40 to 60% Chance of 1/4" or more rainfall for much of southwest into central and south central Kansas for the 48 hour period roughly Tuesday Night to Thursday Night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

This workweek we will see a fairly decent break from the heat, but not before another hot day today -- especially far southwest Kansas. Latest short term model guidance is highly suggestive of afternoon temperatures in the 104 to 106F range from Liberal to Elkhart north to around Syracuse. It will be a dry heat, though, with dewpoints generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s. This will result in Heat Index values several degrees lower than the actual air temperature. Despite this, we have collaborated with NWS Amarillo in the issuance of a Heat Advisory mainly due to the actual air temperature and heat stress potential to agriculture interests. A fairly strong south wind 15 to 25 mph should alleviate some of this heat stress, but direct insolation will occur all day with large scale subsidence resulting in essentially no clouds.

A rather strong shortwave trough will be moving east across the far northern CONUS starting Tuesday, and this will bring a polar front south into Kansas. This front will then stall out and become the focus for multiple shower and thunderstorm chances through about Thursday Night, at which point the frontal zone will dissolve as the summer subtropical high builds back in. The latest NBM shows 40 to 60% chance of 1/4" or more QPF over a 48-hr period from Tuesday Night to Thursday Night. The frontal zone in place and outflow boundaries will result in a difficult temperature forecast, and this is seen in the NBM with 10-90th percentile ensemble spread of 10 to 15 degrees for highs Tuesday and Wednesday with 10th percentile high temperatures as low as the mid 70s across portions of west central Kansas.

The pattern will revert back to favoring very hot temperatures as we head into next weekend with 100 to 105F highs increasingly likely...particularly August 9th and beyond.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 507 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through late evening. Light southerly winds are expected to increase 20 to 30kt with gusts up to 35kt generally after 14-16Z as lee side troughing strengthens in eastern Colorado. Winds are then forecast to gradually subside this evening with loss of daytime heating.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ061-074-075-084>086.