textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm temperatures across southwest Kansas through the end of the work week.

- Gusty winds will be possible this week with wind gusts in excess of 40 mph possible on Friday.

- Cooler, more seasonal, temperatures return to southwest Kansas over the weekend as precipitation chances improve Friday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1143 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Earlier this morning an upper level disturbance embedded in the southwesterly flow produced a few high based sprinkles/showers as it crossed western Kansas. Two more upper level waves were present in this southwest flow over the Southwest United States. Models are in generally in good agreement with the next upper wave crossing southwest Kansas by early Tuesday. This will quickly be followed by the next upper wave Tuesday night. Moisture return early this week will be limited but given the elevated precipitation that did develop earlier this morning would not be surprised to see another round of sprinkles or even a few widely scatted thunderstorms with either of these upper waves, especially from the stronger upper wave Tuesday night. Following these upper level disturbances an upper ridge will then build across the Central Plains as warmer temperatures begin to spread across western Kansas. This will mark the beginning to the warmup that will occur across southwest Kansas.

Unseasonably warm temperatures across southwest Kansas through the end of the work week. An upper level low off the west coast will deepen as it drops south, west of the California coast, mid week which will result in an upper ridge building into the Plains. Improving westerly downslope flow will result in unseasonably warm 850mb temperatures (near 20C) returning to southwest Kansas Wednesday and Thursday. Given good run to run agreement with these 850mb temperatures spreading back into southwest Kansas and a small 25th to 75th percentile spread in the the NBM forecast max temperatures it appears that the current forecast still looks on track with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s for much of southwest Kansas with the warmest temperatures this week being Wednesday and Thursday.

Gusty winds will be possible this week with wind gusts in excess of 40 mph possible on Friday. A trough of low pressure at the surface will deepen over eastern Colorado which will result in a strengthening pressure gradient developing across southwest Kansas late week. This combined with stronger winds aloft (mean ensemble cluster 850mb wind speeds Friday ranging from 40 to near 45 knots) should easily support the NBM guidance on wind gust ranging from 35 to 45 mph. Also there is a chance (20-30% chance) that some locations west of highway 83 could be as high as 45 to near 50 mph based deep mixing potential and 850-700mb wind speeds Friday afternoon.

Cooler, more seasonal, temperatures return to southwest Kansas over the weekend as precipitation chances improve Friday night. Late this week the upper low off the coast of California mid week will move east across the southwest United States and begin to weaken. As it does the upper ridge axis over the plains will also move east into the Mississippi Valley. The developing southwesterly flow aloft ahead of this approaching upper trough will allow moisture to return to southwest Kansas late week based on improving PWATS. Based on this combined with a cold front moving south across the Central Plains will result in improving chances for thunderstorms. Currently it appears the best chance for thunderstorms across southwest Kansas will be Friday night through Sunday. This will be followed by cooler, more seasonal temperatures.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 521 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail with some mid level clouds overnight. Winds will generally be from a southerly direction, gusting to over 20 knots by tomorrow afternoon.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.