textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Early morning thunderstorms tapering off by late morning.

- Temperatures will be near or slightly below the seasonal normal for this time of year through most of the upcoming work week (Highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s).

- Improving chances for accumulating rainfall will be possible mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Earlier this evening an upper low that was located over Wyoming. An upper level jet was positioned near the base of this upper level low with scattered convection occurring at this time near the nose of this upper jet as it moves east into northeast Kansas. At the surface a stationary front extended from eastern Colorado into the Panhandle of Texas. Just north of this boundary a moist upslope flow was present which was aiding in ongoing nighttime convection as enhanced upper level lift develops during the overnight hours as the right entrance region of the upper level jet moves across western Kansas. Overnight scattered elevated thunderstorms are forecast to move southeast along the mid level baroclinic zone (700fgen) with improving warm air advection and 850-700mb moisture transport occurring. As a result the thunderstorms that do move into southwest Kansas later tonight initially appears to have the potential for hail near the Colorado border, but these storms are expected to weaken as they cross southwest Kansas. Isolated gusty winds along with locally heavy rainfall still will be possible from a few of the stronger storms late tonight. CAMS appear in reasonably good agreement with these storms crossing southwest Kansas between 08z and 16z.

Early morning convection over southwest Kansas will taper off/move south of the area by late morning allowing skies to clear late day. The upper low that was located over Wyoming earlier this evening will now be moving across Nebraska during the day on Monday. Given the clearing skies and forecast 925-850mb temperatures late day it appears that afternoon highs will again range from the mid 70s to lower 80s. On Monday however the cooler temperatures (mid 70s) will be focused near the Colorado border/extreme southwest Kansas given upslope flow, moisture and linger convection will be present longer in the day than further east.

Ensembles this morning remain in good agreement and consistent with previous runs in keeping this cooler air mass which will be located over southwest Kansas on Monday around through at least mid week as a cool surface ridge axis builds across the Central Plains and an upper level ridge starts to move into western Kansas from the west. Upper ridge building across western Kansas early in the week will also limit convection chances to areas near and north of the surface boundary which will be located across eastern Colorado and the Panhandle of Oklahoma/Texas. This would include far western Kansas/extreme southwest Kansas.

The chance for measurable precipitation will however improve mid week as this upper ridge moves east of the area allowing a southwesterly flow aloft to return as our next, more significant, upper low/trough begins to approach the Central Rockies. Several opportunities for widespread accumulating rainfall currently is starting to appear more and more likely for much of western Kansas starting late Wednesday and continuing through the end of the work week as our next upper level system weakens as it moves across the Rockies and out into the plains. IVT has for the past several runs indicated decent moisture return to southwest Kansas Wednesday and Thursday as southerly winds return on the eastern edge of the upper ridge. The latest ensembles all seem to be suggesting PWAT values greater than the 95th percentile west of highway 283 from late Wednesday through early Friday. This is something that will need to be monitored closely over the next several days because given this environment and possible multiple days of storms moving over/near the same areas this could result in some decent rainfall totals in some locations and possible even some water issues late week if these models verify. The latest NBM 48hour probability for rainfall totals to exceed 3/4 inches ending at 7am Friday ranges from 60-80% with the highest rainfall totals occurring west/southwest of Dodge City. This is up from a 50-70% chance of this occurring just 12 hours earlier. Most notable item of interest from the past few runs is that the higher chances remain unchanged. Also noticing that the EFI and Sot has also increased over the last 12hour and was starting to highlight our extreme western counties. Will be interesting to see how persistent these signals will be over few runs. Currently HPC during this period only has a Marginal risk for our west/southwest but slight risk is as close as the panhandle of Oklahoma.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 546 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

A band of rain showers with embedded thunderstorms will continue to move through southwest Kansas this morning affecting primarily the DDC, GCK, and LBL terminals through 16Z. Flight conditions in general will be hovering around MVFR flight category with occasional drops to IFR with the heavier rain through 16Z. Once the rain exits we should see skies clear and the return of VFR flight category for the rest of the time period.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.