textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect Saturday for most of western Kansas

- A cooler Sunday with a High Wind Watch and blowing dust forecast

- Above normal temperatures warming back up next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1156 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Primarily zonal flow aloft continues to build as SW Kansas continues to see dry and quiet weather tonight. A few sporadic surface pressure systems have been shifting winds and will continue to do so with relatively light (5-15 mph) winds. Saturday will look exceedingly similar to Friday just warmer and a little breezier. Dry air and a mild (10-20 mph) south wind will be present. This wind will help bring warmer and drier air into SW Kansas. Highs will race to the 80s with ensembles placing means nearly the entire CWA past the 80 mark. Relative humidities will again be quite low during the day; the SPC has areas near the CO/KS border at critical conditions. Despite the fact that the forecast winds are very marginal, a Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon to 9 PM CDT for the western 2/3s of counties. Take proper fire weather precautions.

Sunday is the focus with ensembles continuing to hold steady depicting a deep upper-level trough descending across the central CONUS. The path of the lower-level low continues to be way north and east of the forecast period. As a result, the area will miss out on the bulk of the precipitation and the entire severe weather threat. Some wrap around precipitation may occur as either rain or snow depending on the timing. Regardless, anything that falls is expected to be light and very limited. Ensembles have around a 15-30% chance of said precipitation with the maxima positioning varying radically by run. What has been held in agreement is the very strong winds expected with the front descending on the back half of Sunday. Ensembles are usually way to soft with winds in these setups and a blend of the 75th percentile was used. This may not even be enough with forecasted winds expected to be between 40-55 mph winds and gusts potentially up to 65 mph. Guidance seems to have the strongest winds between Scott City and Liberal. With these very strong winds, a High Wind Watch has been issued for Sunday winds. It is a near certainty that this will eventually get upgraded to a High Wind Warning. Additionally with any damage these winds may cause, blowing dust is also forecast to be an issue and potentially lowering visibilities to create hazard traveling conditions combined with the winds. Relative humidities are forecast to not be as dry as surrounding days so fire concerns are minimal.

Monday will fight the north winds to recover with highs only in the 40/50s. The rest of the week will warm up dramatically with the rest of the forecast period into the 70/80s. Ensemble means have some areas in far SW Kansas reaching the 90 degree mark but exact temperatures still hold some uncertainty. This stretch is forecast to restore the very quiet weather pattern with dry weather. Even fire concerns are minimal with nearly no winds exceeding 15 mph.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1128 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for all sites through the entire TAF period with a south/southwest wind at 10-20 mph. Clear skies will start off, but at the end of the TAF period, clouds are forecast to move in with LLWS. Some uncertainty lingers with the timing of the front, but cloud cover, LLWS, and gust winds (up to 25 KTs) are forecast by around 4-5Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Lower dewpoints will advect in from the west Saturday. This will result in humidity bottoming out in the 10-15% range. The lee trough will continue with breezy southerly winds. The combination of the low relative humidity, warm highs, and breezy winds will result in Red Flag conditions for a portion of southwest Kansas. A Red Flag Warning has be issued as a result of this meteorological setup.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Saturday for KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088. High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.