textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a small chance of non-severe t-storms (5-20%) across far western Kansas this evening and a better chance (40-60%) across north central and western Kansas for Thursday night.

- Hot weather will persist through Saturday, especially across far southwest Kansas.

- Very hot temperatures of around 105+ degrees are expected for the Sunday through Wednesday time frame, along with very low humidity.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1258 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

The southern edge of the mid to high level westerlies will be located across the central plains through Friday. A nearly stationary front will persist across western Kansas. Along and just on the cooler side of the front the low level moisture will collect, leading to marginal instability with daytime heating. Very warm temperatures at 500mb (-3C), along with the absence of vertical wind shear, will preclude any substantial severe weather. Isolated t-storms are expected across far western Kansas this afternoon and evening; but most locations should remain dry (measurable rain chances 5 to 20% in places such as Syracuse and Lakin). Given the positioning of the front across western Kansas, expect the hottest temperatures across far southwest Kansas, with cooler readings in Hays. Temperatures at Elkhart, Ulysses and Hugoton will likely reach 100 or higher today and Thursday.

A weak upper level disturbance over western Nevada this morning is predicted to rotate around the upper level ridge and approach the high plains Thursday night. Given the persistent frontal zone and associated thermal and moisture gradients, t-storms are again a possibility. The national blend of models gives 50-70% t-storm chances across western Kansas and along I-70 for Thursday night. The various ensemble means indicate modest rain amounts, with central Kansas around Hays being favored over locations along the OK/KS state line. Therefore, chances for meaningful rain are mainly confined to west central Kansas and along I-70. By Friday the front is expected to sag southward, with western Kansas located on the north side of the boundary. Thus, any t-storms ought to be south of the KS/OK state line.

The upper level ridge is advertised to expand northward by Sunday and Monday, with any mid level westerly flow across the Rockies well north of Kansas. With extremely warm 700mb temperatures (16-19C), expect extremely hot readings of 105 degrees by Sunday and perhaps 106-108 by Monday and Tuesday. Given the very deep boundary layer up through the 600mb level, any lingering low level moisture will become diluted in the vertical and "mix out", resulting in deep inverted-v thermal profiles and minimal CAPE (especially by Monday). Thus, t-storm chances are near 0%. This extremely hot and dry weather will persist through at least Wednesday and possibly into Thursday given the strong upper level ridging.

The ensemble means indicate the upper level ridge shifting westward by later next week, possibly allowing a weak cold front to pass through Kansas. This would result in a cool down of 5 to 10 degrees.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 530 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period. Winds will increase after 15Z and stay breezy through 03Z with sustained winds at 15-20 kts and gusts up to 30 kts.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.