textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Possible areas of dense fog Sunday morning in far western Kansas

- Cool and cloudy tomorrow behind the rain with highs in the low to mid 40s

- Slow warming trend Monday into Wednesday where highs will recover to the mid to upper 60s

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1116 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Low level upslope flow could result in areas of fog Sunday morning across extreme western Kansas. A dense fog advisory may be needed if this pans out.

The current system bringing the light rain will move eastward Sunday, leaving southwest Kansas in a cool and cloudy regime with upslope flow. There is no strong front that would scour out the low cloud. Thus, expect highs only in the lower to mid 40s for most of southwest Kansas. Not much change in temperature is expected tonight either with continued cloud cover along with lows in the upper 30s. A slow warming trend is forecast starting Monday; but the low cloud will be slow to clear due to the lack of downslope. With some sunny breaks, expect highs in the lower to mid 50s Monday, with upper 50s to near 60 for Tuesday. On Wednesday a shortwave trough will pass to the north of Kansas, pushing a downslope front through most of southwest Kansas. Temperatures in the mid 60s to near 70 can be expected from Dodge City westward, with slightly cooler readings in central Kansas.

After the aforementioned surge of downslope, the winds will become southerly as an upper level trough forms over the western USA, allowing low level moisture that had been suppressed into the topics to return to the central high plains. Dewpoints as high as 50 may arrive by Thursday. However, lapse rates will be poor, which is typical of fall, so that instability should remain negligible, with moisture trapped beneath a mid level capping inversion. There continues to be much uncertainty about the speed of the next upper level storm system for late week; and recent ensemble means are depicting a faster and farther north solution. This is not a desirable outcome if one is looking for widespread rains, especially since southwest Kansas will be on the warm side of this system. There is also concern that the associated cold front will pass before any mid level cooling and destabilization can occur. This time of year in the warm sector it is helpful and sometimes critical to have mid level cold advection overspreading the moist/warm sector, which would steepen lapse rates and allow for surface based convection. If 500mb temperatures can drop to -16 or -17C by Friday as the upper trough passes, as opposed to -13 or -14C, then we would stand a chance of experiencing a line of showers and t-storms. But for now a drier solution with little to no rain is preferred; and the best chance of pre-frontal rain is across central Kansas per climatology. It takes a special pattern to get large amounts of rain on the central high plains in November; and this is why it is climatologically so dry out here in the cool season. Median November precipitation for Garden City and Dodge City are only .31" and .42" respectively, as opposed to 4" across parts of the Deep South.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 423 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

IFR to LIFR conditions will prevail throughout the day due to low clouds and lowered visibilities. Winds will generally be from the southeast at less than 10 knots.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for KSZ061- 062-074-075-084>086.