textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow across portions of southwest Kansas for a few hours Monday morning, with little to no impacts.

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry Tuesday through Thursday.

- Much colder Friday and Saturday, with a wintry mix possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Early morning water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal a largely identical synoptic pattern over the CONUS compared to this time yesterday, with deep longwave troughing atop all areas along and east of the Rockies, and weak ridging over the west coast. At the surface, high pressure over the southern plains is yielding southwesterly winds over southwest KS, which will support gradually increasing temperatures through the remainder of the overnight period. Daytime today, a shortwave impulse is progged to dive southeast from the northern plains into the Midwest, sending another cold front through the central plains during the afternoon. Given downsloping winds through the morning and prefrontal compression, a considerable spike in afternoon temperatures is expected despite the frontal passage, with highs in the 50s.

Sunday night into Monday morning, short range ensembles are still suggesting light, banded snowfall is possible favoring areas along and adjacent to a Garden City-Dodge City line, courtesy of modest frontogenesis primarily within the 850-700-mb layer. Snow accumulations will be minimal at best as NBM probability of snow totals exceeding 1" are around 50% or less for all zones, and any snow bands that do develop will dissipate by the early afternoon. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies will promote below normal temperatures with afternoon highs in the 30s.

Tuesday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles agree the overall synoptic pattern will remain static as the deep longwave trough refuses to budge. Shortwave troughs/vorticity maxima embedded within the larger parent wave will send a couple more dry cold fronts through our area with little fanfare, yielding only a gradual downtrend in afternoon temperatures through Friday. Over the weekend, ensembles are hinting at a more significant arctic air intrusion, but predictability at this range limits forecast confidence.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 440 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

VFR will prevail for the majority of this TAF period, but a few hours of MVFR ceilings/visibility are expected Monday morning. Increasing and lowering ceilings expected tonight through 12z Mon, with MVFR stratus at GCK/LBL/DDC by 12-15z Mon. Bands of light snow are expected to impact GCK/LBL/DDC for several hours 12-18z Mon, when MVFR visibility in -SN is possible at times. No snow is expected at HYS, and that TAF will remain dry on this update. Elevated north winds in progress at 2230z, will trend light and variable in direction through this period. A rapid return to VFR/SKC is expected after 21z Mon.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.