textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week.

- Cold front early Thursday morning will bring elevated north winds, a period of low stratus clouds, and much colder temperatures Thursday.

- A secondary, stronger arctic cold front will arrive Friday afternoon/evening, with light snow showers or flurries possible.

- Coldest temperatures expected Saturday morning, in the single digits to near zero, especially eastern zones. A cold weather advisory may be required.

- Dry with a strong warming trend Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Midday infrared satellite imagery depicted scattered cirrus over Kansas, as a transient midlevel ridge builds into Kansas. Wednesday afternoon will be the most pleasant of this week, as 850 mb temperatures peak in the +7 to +8C range along with a light westerly downslope wind. Much of the snowcover will melt this afternoon with widespread temperatures in the 40s, with a range from near 40 far east to the mid 50s southwest.

Strong shortwave over the Great Basin currently will arrive in SW KS about sunrise Thursday. Associated surface cyclone is forecast to track from near Elkhart at midnight to western Oklahoma at 6 am Thursday, allowing a strong cold front to race through SW KS late tonight with an increase in east/northeast winds after midnight. Temperatures at sunrise will be near normal in the upper teens and lower 20s, but the elevated north winds will produce wind chills in the single digits Thursday morning. Consensus of short term models suggests several hours of post frontal stratus Thursday morning, favoring the northeast and east zones. There may be some drizzle/freezing drizzle from this stratus deck, with 12z NAM displaying its classic light drizzle QPF signature across the southeast zones Thursday morning. Along with neighboring WFOs, added some freezing drizzle to the weather grids, but amounts/impacts appear minimal.

Elevated north winds will usher in much colder air Thursday, averaging 20-30 mph. Despite clouds decreasing through the afternoon, temperatures will struggle to recover to near freezing along and east of US-283. Zones adjacent to Colorado will be much milder in the 40s.

Winds will trend light and variable Thursday night and Friday morning with surface ridging in place. A stronger surge of much colder arctic air will backdoor west/southwestward into SW KS during the daytime hours Friday. Models are in fair agreement of the arctic cold front's time of arrival, but the exact timing and placement of the boundary will dictate exact high temperatures and temperature trends for any one location. Thinking is temperatures will show a non-diurnal curve downward through the afternoon, in response to cold air advection, and increasing clouds and northeast winds. Some models suggest the true arctic air will not arrive until Friday evening, when guidance shows temperatures falling rapidly. Suspect models are a little slow on the arctic front's arrival, given such strong pressure rises.

Models continue to advertise a period of weak frontogenetic forcing just behind this arctic cold front late Friday. QPF output is minimal, in response to moisture being very limited. Flurries or a light dusting are the most likely outcome for many locations. NBM probability of measurable snow (> 0.1 inch/dusting) has remained consistent at 40-60% for much of SW KS centered on Friday evening as the arctic air arrives. NBM probability of snow > 1 inch is much lower, only near 20%, and that is confined to the I-70 corridor. NBM guidance is similar, with chance pops along the I-70 corridor (Trego, Ellis) Friday afternoon. Northern trajectory and limited moisture will keep snow amounts scant, and impacts will be minimal if any at all.

The coldest temperatures of the forecast period are expected Saturday morning, with model consensus placing the strong 1048 mb arctic high over the eastern zones/central Kansas around sunrise Saturday. NBM is trending colder in this regard, with single digit air temperatures common, and subzero air temperatures favoring the northeast zones nearest the arctic high. Winds will thankfully be light, but wind chills will still approach -15 northeast zones where a cold weather advisory may be required. Air temperatures near -10 are likely under the surface high in central Kansas Saturday morning. Strong return flow and S/SW winds are expected Saturday, but it will be uncomfortably cold, stuck in the 20s and 30s in the recirculated polar air.

Medium range models have shown consistency regarding a rapid warmup through the 50s Sunday and Monday, that will melt any remaining snowcover early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 445 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through late tonight. Low level stratus is then forecast to develop across central Kansas into portions of southwest Kansas early Thursday as high relative humidity from residual moisture due to recent snowfall combines with a more northeasterly upslope flow developing in wake of a surface low sliding east-southeast through the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma. This expected to bring about MVFR/IFR cigs to the vicinity of KHYS, KDDC, and potentially as far west as KGCK and KLBL generally after 08-10Z. Patchy freezing fog will also be possible during the late overnight period, increasing the potential for MVFR vsbys. Light and variable winds early in the period are expected to turn north-northeasterly 15 to 25kt with gusts up to 30kt early Thursday as the aforementioned surface low moves through the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.