textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will continue Thursday through Friday night. Additional rainfall amounts of 1/2 to 1 inch will be common.

- Southwest Kansas will dry out this weekend, with warmer afternoon temperatures in the 80s.

- Heavy rainfall potential exists next week, as the remnants of Pacific Hurricane Polo may interact with an approaching storm system.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Midday infrared satellite imagery and mesoanalysis showed a strong moisture plume continuing across western Kansas, with widespread midlevel clouds, and precipitable water in excess of 1.5 inches. Any instability was limited to areas southwest of Dodge City, where CAPE was climbing above 1000 J/kg, and this is where 12z NAM and many CAMs redevelop additional showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, spreading northeast this evening. Marginally severe storms with hail to 1 inch and wind gusts to 60 mph are possible, but locally heavy rainfall will continue to be the primary risk given the unseasonably wet atmosphere. Given very heavy rainfall across some of the western zones last night (many 2-4 inch reports) will need to watch for hydrology issues through tonight where heavy rain falls on saturated soils. Widespread stratus will develop once again with the moist boundary layer through Friday morning.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue Friday and Friday night, as the primary synoptic trough approaches, and interacts with the continued moist atmosphere. It will not rain the entire time, but chance to likely category pops from the NBM were accepted. Just like Thursday, strong to marginally severe storms are probable, with severe magnitude and coverage being strongly limited by poor lapse rates/instability and weak bulk wind shear. Temperatures will remain seasonably mild Friday afternoon in the 70s, held down by the clouds and limited sunshine.

Midlevel ridging is forecast to build over the plains Saturday and Sunday, drying out SW KS, and allowing for warmer afternoon temperatures in the 80s. There may be a storm in the vicinity of Barber county late Saturday, but most of SW KS will be dry this weekend.

We will be closely monitoring for a potentially significant heavy rain/flooding event around the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. Synoptically, a strong western trough is forecast by the global models to develop across western North America, which is expected to direct remnant tropical moisture from Pacific Hurricane Polo northeastward into the plains. Some recent model runs suggest the combination of strong diffluence/synoptic lift combined with very high tropical moisture may lead to widespread heavy rain and/or thunderstorms Tuesday through Wednesday. Daylight Monday appears dry, with scattered showers and thunderstorms returning Monday night. NBM pops for Tuesday are already in the likely category, and further pop increases are expected as models latch onto this expected synoptic evolution.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 511 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

A slow moving storm system with a lot of moisture will bring periodic thunderstorms over the next 24 hours to all the terminals. Thunderstorm activity will ramp up after 00Z and especially between 06-15Z. Cloud ceilings in general will be VFR to MVFR with the cloud cover however if any storm passes over a terminal we will see drops to IFR and LIFR due to heavy downpours of rain. There is a small threat of some gusty winds with the storms as gusts could approach 40 kts.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.