textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Wide variety of afternoon temperatures Monday and Tuesday, with areas of low clouds, fog and a meandering frontal boundary.

- Scattered thunderstorms with hail potential southeast counties Tuesday night/early Wednesday.

- Sunshine returns Wednesday with more uniform temperatures.

- Strong south winds and much warmer Thursday, with a dryline establishing over SW KS. Critical wildfire danger expected west of the dryline (west of US 283), with a potential for severe thunderstorms southeast of Dodge City.

- Strong cold front Friday night, followed by much cooler air Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Midday satellite imagery and surface observations depicted persistent stratus over about the eastern 1/2 of SW KS. The expectation is for this stratus to erode this afternoon, but this process may be slowed down significantly by increasing SEly winds and moist upslope flow this afternoon. Already reduced inherited temperatures, with many locations stuck in the 40s under the stratus. Much warmer temperatures will be relegated to the southwest zones.

Southeast upslope flow will maintain moisture advection through tonight, with all signs pointing to stratus returning quickly westward after sunset. Most drizzle should remain east of SW KS tonight, but areas of fog are expected, especially northeast of Dodge City through Tuesday morning. Some CAMs suggests widespread reduced visibility, and a dense fog advisory may be required.

The temperature forecast for Tuesday is tricky and complicated, but there is good consensus that cold air is going to win out. 12z NAM/ARW solutions are much colder than the going inherited forecast, and after coordinating with neighboring WFOs, trended temperatures sharply colder toward this guidance. 12z NAM has moved its intense temperature gradient to near the KS/OK border at noon Tuesday, with cold air (850 mb temperatures to near +1C) wedging southward across SW KS. Reduced forecast highs to the upper 40s and lower 50s, but this is probably not cold enough particularly where stratus holds. Southern zones adjacent to Oklahoma should have a few hours to warm rapidly Tuesday morning, before cold advection brings a non-diurnal temperature fall during the afternoon.

Most model solutions suggest elevated convection increasing after midnight favoring the southeast zones Tuesday night, ahead of shortwave trough over Colorado. Per SPC Day 2 marginal 5% hail probability, some of these storms may produce marginally severe hail. NBM pops in the chance category look appropriate. This shortwave will arrive in Kansas, with trailing subsidence clearing the sky with sunshine returning Wednesday. Any convection will be well southeast of SW KS by late Wednesday with a dry forecast.

The first shortwave ejects into the Corn Belt Thursday, kicked along by a much stronger closed midlevel cyclone near Grand Canyon Arizona 6 pm Thursday. Associated lee cyclogenesis over eastern Colorado will provide a strong increase in south winds, stronger than NBM guidance. The spring season's first well established dryline will result, but placement of the dryline will be key to impacts. Thinking is dryline setup will prefer the most westward solutions, given the main synoptic trough still well to the west. Many of the preferred solutions keep the dryline west near the KS/CO border through peak heating Thursday, which would reduce wildfire danger markedly. Convective initiation appears most likely along the dryline across West Texas/Panhandles, with subsequent NEly movement toward south central or even southwest Kansas. 12z GFS which usually has an easterly/progressive bias, shows a stronger synoptically forced environment, with a 993 mb surface low in SE Colorado, and dryline storms initiating south of DDC by 6 pm Thu. Shear and instability will support organized/severe thunderstorms including supercells with large hail/damaging winds Thursday evening, favoring areas southeast of Dodge City. NBM pops in the likely category (>54%) are warranted for the eastern zones.

Models suggest the primary synoptic longwave trough over the Rockies will be in no hurry to eject onto the plains Friday. As such, Friday will feature more warm temperatures, strong south winds, and the dryline will maintain its position over SW KS. Will again monitor eastern zones for severe potential eastern zones late Friday, before a strong cold front brings strong north winds Friday night, and much cooler air Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 535 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Surface observations show low stratus has begun to spread west into our area, with MVFR cigs currently impacting HYS. Short range guidance indicates these low clouds will continue to expand westward, bringing cigs as low as LIFR to HYS, GCK, and DDC. Additionally, fog development is possible at these terminals, bringing visibility down to 1/2 to 1/4 mile at times. Otherwise, current modest southeast winds will weaken to light and variable overnight through tomorrow morning, followed by an increase out of the north in the wake of a cold front to aoa 12 kts.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.