textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm temperatures Wednesday afternoon, in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

- A large temperature range expected Thursday afternoon, with stratus holding temperatures down across the northern counties.

- Widespread rain expected Friday and Friday night.

- An intense storm system is expected to impact Kansas weather early next week, with heavy rain and strong, potentially damaging, winds Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Midday satellite imagery depicted a perfectly clear sky over SW KS, with surface observations showing downslope SWly winds prevailing at most locations. This combination along with several degrees of warming at 850 mb will allow temperatures to soar through the 70s this afternoon, with lower 80s across the southeast counties.

A weak frontal boundary will sag southward across SW KS tonight, creating a light northeast wind shift, and allowing stratus and areas of fog to redevelop after midnight across at least the northern zones. Areas of fog were included in the grids, favoring areas north and west of Dodge City.

A large temperature range is expected Thursday, along with temperature forecast bust potential at any one location. Stratus will erode Thursday afternoon, but there is uncertainty regarding how fast this will occur. Forecast temperature range Thursday afternoon is from near 60 north to near 80 southeast. SW KS is expected to remain dry through Thursday night.

A subtropical shortwave arriving from the southwest, infused with remnant moisture/vorticity from Pacific tropical cyclone Vance, has been consistently forecast by models to arrive Friday with widespread rainfall. Rainfall amounts of 0.25-0.50 inch are expected to be common with this event, with NBM pops in the definite category (>80%) across the southeast half of SW KS Friday and Friday night. With tropical, moist lapse rates instability will be poor, as such NBM has correctly taken most of the thunder out of the grids. NBM temperatures are likely too warm Friday, with clouds and rain holding most locations in the 50s.

Dry weather returns for Halloween, with temperatures falling through the 60s and 50s Saturday evening. A light southeast wind is expected.

Models show two strong shortwaves from the polar and subtropical jet streams combining into one strong closed midlevel cyclone over the Great Basin by late Sunday. The daylight hours of the first day of November are expected to remain dry, with elevated south winds and mild temperatures in the 60s.

NBM pops increase into the likely category Sunday night, as forcing for ascent arrives ahead of the approaching trough. A strong low level jet will supply a healthy moisture supply and bulk shear, so can't rule out stronger storms with heavy rainfall potential Sunday night. Early next week, the entire storm system will arrive on the plains Monday through Tuesday. While this broad synoptic signal remains consistent, the details of where/when the heaviest rains and strongest winds will occur are still unknown. Some models split the trough upon arrival with a weak storm system, others keep it organized into a much stronger coherent trough with potentially higher impacts - it is just too early to know.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1030 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Excellent flying weather is expected through 06z Thu, with VFR/SKC at all airports. Southwest winds will gust 25-27 kts at all airports this afternoon through sunset. A very weak frontal boundary will sag southward into SW KS through sunrise Thursday, with a weak northeast/east wind shift. Consensus of short term models suggest MVFR to IFR stratus will develop behind this boundary, and persist for several hours Thursday morning. Confidence of the lowest/most persistent ceilings is at HYS, while confidence is lowest at LBL.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.