textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will possible tonight. Isolated gusty winds will be the main hazard.

- There will be a slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday. Main hazards from these stronger storms will be wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph and large hail. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible in some areas.

- Cooler temperatures will briefly return to southwest Kansas Wednesday and Thursday. The high temperature both days will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Enjoy it while we have it because warmer temperatures will return late week with highs around 100 possible by the start of the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Early this Monday morning, isolated showers and widespread cloud cover were observed ahead of an upper level trough located over southwest Kansas. Additionally, another upper level trough was situated over northern Colorado with another upstream upper wave appearing on water vapor loop near southern Nevada. These upper waves were rotating around a 500mb high located over the southwest United States. At the surface, a trough of low pressure extended across far western Kansas. Models this morning over the next 12 to 24 hours were in good agreement that our next upper wave will progress into the West Central High Plains late today as the surface boundary shifts westward. By early evening scattered convection is expected to develop once again across eastern Colorado, similar to recent nights, and then track eastward into western Kansas during the overnight hours. The main risk from these storms overnight will be wind gusts of 50 mph higher.

A better chance for thunderstorms will occur on Tuesday as the next in a series of upper level troughs approach western Kansas. Models appears to have a decent handle on the track of this upper wave that was located near southern Nevada earlier today. Large hail and strong gusty winds will be possible from these storms on Tuesday given the improving instability and lift forecast late Tuesday as thunderstorms develop across eastern Colorado. These storm may increase in coverage as they move across western Kansas along a instability/0-1km theta-e ridge axis overnight. If these storms cluster together overnight...heavy rainfall will be a risk Tuesday night given the high PWATs (around 1.5 inches) forecast across the area. If this does occur a few areas could have ponding of water in poor drainage area and secondary roads.

The chance of thunderstorms will then persist on Wednesday as a surface cold front crosses southwest Kansas and additional upper waves embedded in the northwest flow cross western Kansas. Also following the frontal passage there will be some cooler, more seasonal, air filtering into the area during the day and given this cooler air spreading into western Kansas the highs midweek will on average between 5 and 10 degrees cooler than what we currently expect today(Monday). Highs on Wednesday will be mainly in the lower 90s with high only in the upper 80s being possible around Garden City and along the I-70 corridor.

These cooler temperatures midweek however will be brief. By late week the upper high over the southwest United States will begin to build east towards the Rockies and based on the 850mb temperature trends late week into the upcoming weekend it appears that the high temperatures will be warming through mid to upper the 90s late week with 100 degree temperatures returning during the weekend period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Light winds will become easterly at 10 knots or less between 21z today and 00z Tuesday as an upper level disturbance exits the Rockies and moves out into eastern Colorado. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible ahead of this upper wave and these storms will move across southwest Kansas during the overnight hours. Based on the latest CAMS it appears that these storms will cross the Garden City and Hays areas between 09z and 12z Tuesday and then across the Dodge City area between 10z and 14z Tuesday. VFR conditions can be expected over the next 24 hours but ceiling may fall into the 3000 to 6000ft agl just prior to the storms passing.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.