textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures are expected through Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s with continued strong winds of 20-30 mph through Monday

- Precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday with early indications of marginal severe potential

- Cooler highs next week after Tuesday behind the system

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

The upper-level synoptic pattern is made up of two key features. The first is a shortwave trough centered over eastern Arkansas and a deepening trough positioned over the Pacific Northwest. Nearer to the surface, high pressure sits over the southern Rockies and low pressure among the northern Rockies. Sunday will be a near carbon copy of Saturday albeit a couple degrees warmer. Dry with a strong south/southwest wind at around 25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph. Highs again will be in the mid to upper 80s and potentially around 90 degrees in the warmest areas keeping up the pattern of warmer than normal highs. Monday will again be similar with weaker winds and warmer highs. With highs in the low 90s and the southwest winds only around 20 mph and gusts to 30 mph. Relative humidity minimums are forecast to stay above 25% to quell most of the fire weather risk.

The interest of the forecast period surrounds the system currently situated over the Pacific Northwest. With a bunch of moisture being advected into Kansas prior to the system with the addition to some tropical system moisture again, widespread storms/rain is possible through Wednesday. Tremendous uncertainty is still present in both the system and cold front timing. Trends continue to depict both as slower than initially progged. Despite those questions and the temporal uncertainty, it appears like there remains a notable chance for severe weather. The SPC has a 15% box along the KS/OK border. The CSU MLP has a 5-15% both Tuesday and Wednesday in the eastern zones. Early GFS forecast soundings has CAPE around 1000 J/kg and shear of around 30 KTs. This is a marginally conducive environment fore severe weather so the potential will need to be closely monitored. Through the couple rounds of precipitation Tuesday and Wednesday, ensembles have the early amount indications of 0.5-1.5" of rain with the drier regions out west and the wettest zones near south central Kansas. This is trending much wetter than previous runs and will need to be monitored. If the system track continues to be later than depicted, these amounts may drop or shift eastward.

Other than the precipitation, it will obviously be much cooler behind the cold front. Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to have highs in the 70 and highs dropping even lower Friday and Saturday towards the 60s. It will need to be monitored the timing of the front and the CAA behind it.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1109 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Some LLWS is forecast to begin the period with clear skies and a south/southwest wind at around 13 KTs. By around 14Z, the LLWS is expected to diminish with some high based cloud cover and strengthening southwest winds up to 20 KTs gusting to 30 KTs.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.