textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Below normal temperatures once again today, with highs in the 60s.

- A Frost Advisory is in effect tonight from 3-8 AM CDT for the northwestern counties.

- Dry, warming trend is expected Saturday through Monday, with highs rising from the 70s on Saturday to the mid/upper 80s on Monday.

- An approaching wave will begin to impact our area around late Monday through early Wednesday bringing cooler temperatures and precipitation chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

The synoptic pattern aloft continues to be unchanged with primarily zonal flow across most of the central CONUS and a deep low pressure system over the northeastern portion of the United States. Highs today will continue to warm up into the 60s. Some showers are possible later today, but if they are occur they will be very limited in scope and amounts with little-to-no accumulations. The rest of today is forecast to be quiet with light winds and no substantial weather. Tonight, lows will drop significantly and approach freezing in the northwest zones. Only the Scott City/Syracuse has a >40% chance via ensembles to dip to or below freezing. These cooler temperatures will only be present for a very brief window right before sunrise before quickly warming back up. The latest run of ensembles have overnight temperatures a degree or two warmer, but criteria for the northwestern half is still expected to reach Frost Advisory criteria; as a result one is now in effect from 3-8 AM CDT. Take precautions to protect outdoor plants if needed.

The weekend is expected to see a very sharp warm-up. Highs Saturday will push towards and into the 70s with highs in the upper-80s for much of SW Kansas Sunday. Light winds Saturday will bring a day of tranquil weather. On Sunday winds will strengthen out of the southwest with some downsloping to bring warmer, drier air contributing to the warmer than average highs for early May.

Ensembles still depict a deep upper-level trough moving along the CONUS/Canada border early next week bringing a period of precipitation chances from late monday into Wednesday. Early indication is that the severe threat will be minimal, but it is too early for specific declarations of chances or locations. The system will also bring a cooldown with it from highs approaching 90 degrees Monday to highs fighting to reach the 60s on Tuesday. The latter half of the week will return to a dry and warm pattern as highs once again return to the 80s with the biggest concern likely coming via marginal fire weather risk in far SW Kansas.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1137 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with tranquil weather. With weak high pressure overhead, mostly clear skies and light winds are ongoing and expected to continue. From around 22-1Z, ensembles have chances (10-30%) for light showers, but coverage and intensity will be minimal if they occur. Winds will be light (<10 KTs) and primarily variable through the period.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory from 3 AM CDT /2 AM MDT/ to 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ Saturday for KSZ030-031-043>045-061>063-074>077-084>086.