textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Gradual warming trend today through the weekend, with highs rising from the upper 90s/low 100s today into the 100-105 range on Sunday.

- Upper level high pressure begins to weaken early next week, which will allow afternoon highs to decrease through the end of the business week.

- Precipitation chances also increase by mid-business week with NBM highlighting Wednesday and Thursday evenings carrying the best chances for widespread rainfall.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1155 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Late morning water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal a ~597-dm ridge is in place over the Desert Southwest, with troughing over south-central Canada into the upper Midwest resulting in northwesterly flow atop the central plains. At the surface, weak low pressure was located over northwest KS, supporting breezy winds across our area. Through the remainder of the day, short range ensembles agree the upper ridge will slightly build to near ~599-dm. Under the increasing subsidence, 850-mb temperatures will warm by 2-3 degrees C, which will translate to a subtle uptick in afternoon temperatures today with highs in the upper 90s/low 100s. DNVA ahead of the ridge should also inhibit convective activity, although a stray thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out, especially after last night's severe thunderstorms that developed in the absence of synoptic support.

Daytime Saturday, ensembles indicate little to no change will occur in the overall upper level pattern, with ridging to our west remaining dominant. The only noteworthy difference will be lee cyclogenesis spread out over eastern WY/CO and adjacent areas leading to gusty southerly winds sustained in the 10-20 mph range gusting to 30 mph. Continued strong subsidence and solar insolation will foster another small increase in afternoon temperatures with afternoon highs reaching into the low 100s.

Sunday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles agree the upper level ridge to our west will begin to break down and weaken, which will engender a gradual cooling trend across southwest KS as well as a return of appreciable precipitation chances. NBM highs on Sunday are in the 100-105 range, but will inch downward to the upper 80s by the end of the business week. NBM also highlights Wednesday and Thursday evenings as the most likely opportunities for widespread precipitation as pops rise into the chance (25-54%) and low-end likely (55-74%) categories. These will be welcome changes to the central plains which have been mired in very hot and dry temperatures for several weeks.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1155 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Weak low pressure in northwest KS is wreaking havoc on winds across southwest KS as all manners of directions and intensities are being reported. Winds should trend more easterly/southeasterly through the afternoon as the weak low dissipates, sustained in the 10-12 kt range. Overnight, winds will become light and variable, followed by an increase out of the south after sunrise back into the 10-12 kt range.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.