textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog and drizzle expected through mid-day today.

- A warming trend is forecast through the weekend with unseasonably warm temperatures likely.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

WV imagery indicates a weak closed upper low drifting eastward through northeast New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Near the surface, a weak area of low pressure is situated in extreme southeast Colorado.

Very minimal precip chances (20%) are forecast to linger across portions of southwest/central Kansas through early afternoon as a weak closed upper low pushes east through extreme northwest Texas into the Red River Valley. Sufficient moisture, especially in the lower levels, within a prevailing southeast upslope flow combined with enough lift north of a surface low sliding southeast through the Texas Panhandle, will support pockets of light drizzle associated with a prevailing low level stratus deck and areas of fog. This is suggested by the HREF indicating a 10-30% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding a mere 0.05 of an inch by late afternoon, mainly across portions of southwest Kansas along and south of US 50. Otherwise, expect drier conditions to take hold by this evening. Although remaining extremely minimal, another round of precip chances (20%) exist Friday as a secondary upper level shortwave transitions eastward through the Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains. However, a lack of moisture will limit amounts, if any, as the HREF only points to a 10% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.05 of an inch in areas generally along and north of US 50 by Friday evening. Dry conditions are forecast Saturday as a westerly downslope flow sets up behind a cold front projected to push through western Kansas early in the day.

Similar temperatures to yesterday are expected today with little change to the general airmass supported by a weak southeast upslope flow, not to mention widespread low level stratus prevailing across central and much of southwest Kansas. Look for afternoon highs mainly the 40s(F) today with the HREF painting a 70-90% probability of highs exceeding 40F with a 70-90% probability of nudging above 45F in extreme southwest Kansas if sunshine does break out. Temperatures will gradually climb into the weekend with a warmer airmass spreading into western Kansas, pushing H85 temperatures up closer to 10C. The HREF shows a 70-90% probability of widespread highs topping 50F Friday while the NBM paints a 60-80% probability of highs climbing above 55F Saturday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 419 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Prevailing low level stratus and areas of fog within a southeasterly upslope flow will allow widespread IFR cigs and MVFR/IFR vsbys to persist in vicinity of all TAF sites through late evening. Light southeast winds will persist through much of the period as a weak surface low slides southeast through the Texas Panhandle into the Red River Valley.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for KSZ030- 031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.