textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorm chances (40-60%) return to central/south central Kansas tonight and again late Monday.

- Unseasonably cool temperatures arrive mid-week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

WV imagery indicates an upper level shortwave perturbation lifting northeast through the Northern Plains downstream of a positively- tilted larger scale upper level trough dipping southeast across the Great Basin. Near the surface, low pressure is anchored in west central Kansas with an attendant dryline extending southward through southwest Kansas into the Oklahoma Panhandle.

Thunderstorm chances (40-60%) pick up this evening as the SREF points to the aforementioned positively-tilted upper level trough closing off as it turns more eastward toward the Four Corners Region overnight, setting up an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, low pressure situated in west central Kansas is projected to lift northeast into north central Kansas in response to the upper level perturbation across the Colorado Rockies climbing northeast into the Dakotas with an attendant dryline mixing eastward across much of southwest Kansas. Prevailing southerlies ahead of the dryline will support ample moisture return with surface dewpoints pushing well up into the 60s(F) to near 70F, increasing instability with SBCAPE values reaching in excess of 3000-3500 J/kg. Despite a less than robust flow aloft (+50kt field of westerlies) and short-fuse model soundings showing decent capping in place, sufficient forcing in vicinity of the dryline and subsequent warm front extending off the surface low northeast into Nebraska may be enough to support thunderstorm development by early evening as indicated by most CAMs. The best chance for storm development is across portions of central Kansas into south central Kansas where the HREF indicates a 20-30% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.25 of an inch by late evening. The higher instability combined with sufficient deep layer shear will support severe potential with large hail the primary threat. Damaging winds and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Another round of thunderstorms is possible (40-60% chance) across central/south central Kansas Monday as the closed upper low out west begins to open up as it lifts northeast across the Colorado Rockies into the high plains of western Nebraska. In response, a surface low is projected to develop in southeast Colorado by late afternoon, then quickly lift northeast through northern Kansas Monday evening while an attendant dryline oscillates generally across southwest Kansas. Deep-layer moisture will continue to provide abundant instability ahead of the dryline in central Kansas and south central Kansas. Thunderstorm development is likely late Monday afternoon as the core of the aforementioned upper level trough lifts northeast through the region in conjunction with steepening mid-level lapse rates, interacting with the dryline/quasi-stationary frontal boundary before it begins to shift south on the back side of the departing surface low. Again, the HREF paints the best chance for development to be across central/south central Kansas where there is a 20-40% probability of 6-hr QPF topping .25 of an inch by late Monday evening.

A wide range of temperatures are likely tonight as a cold front sinks slowly south into extreme western Kansas behind a departing surface low up through north central Kansas into Nebraska. Much cooler air will spread into west central Kansas, dropping H85 temperatures below 15C while much warmer temperatures hold steady south of the boundary. The HREF supports this showing a 70-90% probability of temperatures sliding below 55F in west central Kansas and extreme southwest Kansas to 30-50% probability of temperatures only dropping below 70F in south central Kansas. Temperatures are forecast to be more seasonal in west central/central Kansas Monday due to the projected stalled out frontal boundary in the area while much warmer temperatures are likely farther south. The HREF shows a 30-50% probability of temperatures exceeding 80F in vicinity of the I-70 corridor to a 70-90% probability of temperatures topping 90F near and along the Oklahoma line in southwest Kansas, so look for afternoon highs ranging from the generally the 80s(F) in west central/central Kansas to the 90s(F) farther south. Much cooler air arriving Tuesday behind the quasi-stationary boundary finally dislodging southward will bring slightly below normal temperatures to the area mid-week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1128 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Strengthening gusty southwest winds may lead to blow dust conditions for portions of southwest Kansas this afternoon, resulting in potential MVFR vsbys in vicinity of KLBL, KGCK, and KDDC. Additionally, Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop across central Kansas late this afternoon/early evening, potentially affecting KHYS generally after 00-02Z. Otherwise, primarily VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through early Monday. The potential for MVFR cigs exists in vicinity of KHYS generally after 06-08Z tonight as low level stratus is projected to develop along and north of a frontal boundary projected to sink southward into northwest/north central Kansas.

Strong south-southwest winds around 20-30kt with gusts up to 40kt are expected to persist across southwest Kansas through late afternoon as a dryline advances eastward. Meanwhile, winds in central Kansas are forecast to gradually subside through the afternoon into early evening while becoming more west-northwesterly as an approaching cold front from the northwest pushes slowly into the area before stalling out late tonight. Stronger south winds will prevail south of the boundary closer to the Oklahoma line overnight while north- northeast winds 10 to 20kt persist north of the boundary in west central Kansas into portions of central Kansas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

A red flag warning remains in effect for today for much of southwest Kansas. Southwesterly winds of 25-35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph and extremely low humidity in the 5 to 10% range will lead to high-end critical fire weather conditions. High- end fire weather conditions are also forecast for Monday to the west of Dodge City and southward to Liberal and Elkhart, with similar winds and humidity values.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>080-084>089. Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for KSZ074>077-084>087.