textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued strong south winds of 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph along with highs up near the 80s.

- Multiples waves of precipitation Friday through Monday especially in far western Kansas where heavy rain on Saturday and Sunday may present minor flooding concerns.

- After the rain this weekend, temperatures will be significantly cooler in the 60s next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1124 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Ridging over the CWA continues to dominate the pattern aloft. The other notable feature is a deep low pressure system moving eastward and now is places over Nevada. Prior to the system moving closer to the forecast area, the weather will be calm with warmer than normal temperatures this time of the year in the upper 70s and into the 80s accompanied by a breezy south wind at around 20 mph and higher gusts. An early round of weak precipitation is possible for the western counties at around a 10-20% chance. The bulk of the system will impact the CWA into Saturday.

Trends that were evident yesterday had the system moving slower and later. That has remained into today's model runs. As a result, the bulk of the precipitation, especially the heavy and training rain, will remain in Colorado on Saturday. By Saturday evening, some of this rain is forecast to push into the far western counties of Kansas. A second round of lighter rain is forecast to press further into Kansas on Sunday morning. Because of the heaviest rain being in Colorado, and the Kansas rain being spread out over a 48 hour period, a Flood Watch is not being issued at this time. Despite that, with the current QPF amounts through the event reaching 2-2.5" in the highest areas localized areas may see flooding. This is especially true in urban and flood prone areas. Of the forecast area, the Hamilton county vicinity is expected to be the highest amounts. The biggest concern is that the trend reverses and the system/precipitation is shifted 50 miles eastward leaving the training precipitation and gradient of heavy rainfall blanketing across the western six counties and causing widespread issues. As a result, monitor for future updates and potential flooding headlines/warnings. East of highway 83, amounts will mostly be much lower at under an inch with some areas receiving little to no rainfall. The rain with lack the instability poses virtually zero severe threat (only up to 600 J/kg in forecast soundings).

Beyond this event, temperatures will cool dramatically closer to more seasonal temperatures for late October with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Midweek next week is forecast to be quiet with no active weather. The next chance for precipitation is on Friday, but with the system still being poorly resolved this far out, time will be needed for more specifics.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1124 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A south wind of 15-20 KTs and gusts up to 30 KTs are forecast through this period. This is under a regime of high pressure and scattered cloud cover with high bases. At the very end of the period some precipitation may be west of LBL and GCK, but is not expected to impact the terminals through the period.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.