textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog (locally dense possible) across portions of southwest into south central Kansas early Sunday morning, but widespread dense fog is not expected.

- Mild temperatures well into the 60s to lower 70s through mid- week ahead of next cold front.

- Next cold front to move through the area during the mid part of next week, but precipitation chances are near-zero with moisture shunted too far to the east of southwest Kansas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Tranquil weather will prevail through much of the 7-day forecast period as a zonal split-flow jet stream pattern evolves into a more amplified jet stream pattern putting western Kansas in a dry northwest or north-northwest wind pattern aloft. In the short term tonight and tomorrow, a weak MSLP gradient will continue to be the theme going into tomorrow due to the aforementioned split jet stream to our north and south. Residual near-surface moisture from recent wet period(s) will keep dewpoints just high enough to support another morning of ground fog development early Sunday morning. The latest HRRR and REFS ensembles suggest fog development in the Garden City area and also the Red Hills region, but in the official forecast, we will connect these two modeled signals with a more uniform "patchy fog" Wx grid from Scott City to Dodge City to Greensburg to Medicine Lodge and points south. Confidence in widespread dense fog is too low, however, to consider a dense fog headline, although evening and overnight shifts will need to monitor HRRR and observation/satellite trends closely.

The split jet pattern over western Kansas will continue to have enough of a downslope component, and along with direct insolation, temperatures will continue to track toward the 75th percentile NBM with afternoon temperatures well into the 60s to lower 70s Sunday into at least Tuesday. The main (northern) branch of the jet stream will amplify quite considerably mid-week with the amplification showing strong ridging across the western CONUS and a mean trough in the eastern CONUS. This is a dry pattern for western Kansas this time of year, so the official forecast will remain dry through the end of this forecast period (next weekend).

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 427 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected through tomorrow with mostly clear skies. However, there is a small possibility of reduced visibilities and fog after midnight to sunrise at the DDC, GCK, and LBL terminals. I have placed a TEMPO to account for this. Winds will be light and from a southerly direction this evening, shifting to a northerly direction after midnight.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.