textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly dry conditions with seasonal temperatures possible through late week across southwest Kansas. Highs in the lower 90s early in the week will warm into the mid 90s by Friday.

- A warming trend over the weekend will result in afternoon temperatures climbing back into the upper 90s by Sunday. Highs around 100 possible in a few locations, mainly across south central Kansas and along the Oklahoma border.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

A 500mb high was located over the Dakotas earlier today with the Central Plains positioned near the southern edge of this upper high. Despite the center of this upper high being located across the Dakotas, the 500mb temperatures across the Central Plains remain above the 95% of climatological averages. Easterly winds were present at the 700 and 500mb levels, while south/southeast winds were observed below the 700mb level. These winds in the lower levels were located on the southwest edge of an area of high pressure centered over the mid Mississippi valley.

Much like yesterday, the southeasterly flow in the lower levels will continue with the 850mb temperature trends from 00z Monday to 00z Tuesday indicating little overall change (plus or minus a degree or two). As a result the highs today will once again be around 90 degrees.

Looking ahead to mid week, ensembles show little chance in the 850mb temperature trends across southwest Kansas through Thursday. They keep 850mb temperatures at 00z each day in the low to mid 20s, which is between 50 and 70% of climatology. This combined with the limited mixing depth forecast by the BUFR soundings continues favor highs a little warmer but still keeping temperatures mainly in the lower 90s. Confidence remains greater than 80% in this forecast given the run to run consistency and small spread in the 25th to 75th percentiles in the NBM high temperature guidance.

Late in the week and into the weekend the ensembles have the upper high over the Plains weakening and beginning to redevelop/retrograde it into the western United States. This favors a warming trend across southwest Kansas. The mean 850mb temperatures trend across western Kansas from all the ensembles compared to climatology over the weekend period continues to support highs climbing into the upper 90s, with a few 100 degree highs possible on Sunday. Latest NBM guidance stills show a 30-50% chance for highs of 1000 degrees or slightly higher Sunday and Monday with the best chance for 100 degree temperatures being near the Oklahoma border, especially in south central Kansas.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

South/Southeast winds at 10 to 15 knots will persist across southwest Kansas today, decreasing to less than 10 knots after sunset. Clear to mostly clear skies will give way to some increasing clouds in the 3500-7000ft AGL level between 09z and 18z Tuesday as a weak upper level disturbance moves from east to west across Kansas.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.