textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of shower/thunderstorm chances (30-50%) very late Saturday

- Warmup Sunday and onward with highs in the 80s

- Ensembles hint at more rain chances (20-30%) middle of next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

A line of storms ahead of a surface low pressure system continues to sweep across the southern portion of the CWA. A few severe wind gusts were produced primarily north of the line in and around Scott City. CAMs have the line continuing to deteriorate and mostly dissipate by 1 AM. Light scattered showers may continue into the late morning. Winds are expected to stay strong enough to prevent dense fog from developing, but with very saturated relative humidities, patchy fog may still develop in fog-prone and low-laying areas. The upper-level synoptic pattern remains relatively unchanged with a deep trough located over the Rockies.

Approaching noon Friday, winds will shift to out of the north with a break in cloud cover that will see highs bounce back up into the 70s. The focus will hinge on storm development late tomorrow evening. CAMs still hold vast disagreement but have all trended farther south, west, and later in the evening. Now the storms are expected closer to midnight. There is still skepticism on the high- end strength of these storms with little CAPE and shear to work with; model soundings have <500 J/kg and <25 KTs respectively. Storms will need to form in the panhandles and maintain themselves into Kansas for any severe threat. That said it can not be ruled out.

CAMs have Saturday as another day with highs in the 70s and intermittent scattered showers. Coverage is uncertain as against CAMs have a poor grasp of the pattern with little consistency with each other or even run-to-run. Even in the wettest outcome, accumulations will be little to none (0.05"). Sunday is forecast to be the first dry day in a bit. It will also be the warmest with highs in the 80s. Monday and Tuesday will continue what Sunday started with more dry days with highs in the 80s.

Ensembles have the 80 degree days continuing into Wednesday and through the rest of the week. Along with that, ensembles paint most of the area at around a 30% for precipitation. More details will be gained once the system is better resolved. Fire weather concerns will be limited with relative humidities staying above 25% through the forecast period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 422 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Scattered thunderstorms will accompany a cold front as it crosses southwest Kansas today. As this boundary passes, southerly winds will shift to the north. Low clouds early this Friday morning at 500 to 1500ft AGL will improve to low VFR ceilings for several hours before clearing. Initially following the wind shift, the north winds will be gusty at times. These gusty north winds will then decrease early tonight in response to a surface high building into northwest Kansas.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.