textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Intensely hot afternoons will continue through Wednesday, with temperatures well above 100 each day.

- The heat is expected to relax with improved rainfall opportunities late this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

WV imagery indicates a northwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of an upper level high centered across the Desert Southwest. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure extends northeast across southeast Colorado into northwest Kansas.

Another round of minimal isolated thunderstorm chances (20%) exists across west central Kansas into extreme southwest Kansas this evening with the SREF indicating little change in the overall pattern from yesterday with H5 vort maxima associated with a weak shortwave ejecting eastward out of the northern Colorado Rockies into the Western High Plains. Near the surface, prevailing southerlies will continue to support some moisture return across the area, providing minimal instability with MUCAPE values upward of 500 J/kg or so. With steepening mid- level lapse rates, isolated thunderstorm development cannot be ruled out toward early evening as ejecting H5 vort maxima interact with an axis of low level convergence associated with the aforementioned trough extending from extreme southeast Colorado into northwest Kansas. A few CAMs suggest this while the HREF hints at it with 10% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding only 0.1 of an inch across west central Kansas into extreme southwest Kansas by late evening. A secondary focus will be more into central Kansas later this evening, including the I-70 corridor, as thunderstorms likely developing in a field of much higher instability in northwest Kansas/southwest Nebraska track eastward overnight. Similar conditions are forecast Monday into Tuesday with little change to the larger scale pattern.

Very warm temperatures are forecast again tonight as prevailing southerlies reinforce a warmer air mass across southwest/central Kansas. Considering the HREF paints a widespread 70-90% probability of temperatures dropping below 80F, look for lows generally in the 70s(F). With a persistent pattern in place, expect afternoon highs back up around 100 to 105F Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 439 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

VFR/SKC will continue through this TAF period, with scattered cirrus at times. Radar at 2130z Sun depicted weak high-based convection again well northwest of GCK. This activity is expected to remain NW of GCK, and made no mention in this set of TAFs. Strong southwest winds gusting near 30 kts as of 2130z Sun will diminish some after 02z Mon and back more southerly, but remain elevated with gusts 20-25 kts through much of the night. Light southwest winds will prevail briefly around sunrise, before strong southwest winds resume once again after 15z Mon, gusting near 30 kts.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.