textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight risk of severe weather on Tuesday with 60-70 mph winds the main threat and hail possible

- Cooler temperatures for mid week

- The return of 100 degree heat is expected this weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1149 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

05Z synopsis shows a band of weak storms in southeast Colorado and a subsequent upper level wave which is providing the lift for the storms. Storms are also trying to develop in northeast Colorado with another upper level wave which will move into western Kansas through the overnight.

Tuesday the day should start with decaying storms along an upper level wave that enters into central Kansas towards late morning. Residual cloud cover along with post storm winds coming out of the north should keep temperatures at bay through the morning. By afternoon skies will clear and daytime heating along with rapid destabilization of the atmosphere will combine with a shortwave moving out of Nebraska with the northwest flow to develop storms in northwest and north central Kansas. A second shortwave in southeast Colorado should also access the destabilized atmosphere and another area of convection in Colorado will develop and move into western Kansas by evening. CAPE values are expected to be higher with the western line of storms and short term models are hinting at cold pooling with the storms and the production of 60-70 mph gusts. 00Z skew t forecasts from various short term models suggest around 30 kts of bulk shear which would support some hail production of around quarter size but with more north to northwest flow in the mid levels the hodographs aren't really showing a large to giant hail environment. Localized heavy rainfall is also possible as PWAT values of 1.5 inches looks to be common across western Kansas and NBM probabilities of greater than 1 inch of rain range from 10-20% across western Kansas suggesting some of the storms should drop quite a bit of rain in a short amount of time. With continuous northwest flow through the night and another upper level wave moving in from northeast Colorado short term models suggest a 3rd round of storms moving from northwest to north central Kansas by sunrise Wednesday morning.

For Wednesday the cooling trend should continue as the 597 dm upper level high retreats to the west and the surface winds are more easterly. NBM 25th-75th percentile spread for highs range from mid 80s to lower 90s for much of western Kansas. Leftover morning convection should keep clouds in place through the morning but by afternoon we should be back to full sunshine and destabilization of the atmosphere. Another round of convection should develop in the front range but given the more northerly flow in the mid levels these storms will have a longer and harder time trying to make it to western Kansas. Areas along the Colorado border will have the highest probabilities (40-50%) of rain after midnight.

Ensemble trends show the upper high moving east towards the weekend bringing back in hotter air and NBM probabilities of 100 degree or hotter highs is back to 30-50% on Saturday and 40-80% on Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 533 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through this afternoon with a chance of thunderstorms bringing periods of MVFR conditions late afternoon into this evening. Winds will generally be from an easterly direction.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.