textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm temperatures today.

- Higher rain chances (70-90%) arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1203 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

WV imagery indicates a fairly zonal flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a nearly stalled frontal boundary extends from extreme southwest Kansas northeastward into central Kansas.

Minimal rain/thunderstorm chances (20-30%) return to portions of western Kansas this evening as the SREF indicates a series of H5 vort maxima ejecting eastward out of the Colorado Rockies downstream of a positively- tilted closed upper low pushing off the Pacific into central/southern California. As the system well out west approaches, an upper level shortwave perturbation within a larger scale upper level trough will dig southeast through the Dakotas/Upper Midwest today, ushering an attendant cold front southward into western/central Kansas this evening. Despite limited moisture availability (surface dewpoints generally in the 40s(F)) hindering instability, sufficient lift associated with the boundary combined with an intensifying westerly flow aloft (+110kt) and limited instability (MUCAPE values upward of 500 J/kg or so) will set the stage for potential shower/isolated storm development overnight as H5 vort maxima transition through the region. The best chance for precip will be across west central Kansas into central Kansas in vicinity of the I- 70 corridor where the NBM shows a 10-20% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding only 0.1 of an inch by early Tuesday morning. Areas farther south are expected to remain relatively dry.

More significant rain chances (70-90%) arrive late Tuesday as the closed upper low out west opens up as it shifts east into the Four Corners Region, creating an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft, not to mention a strengthening +120kt jet lifting northeast through northeast New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. Meanwhile, a stalled frontal boundary will remain well to our south while an east- northeast upslope flow prevails across western Kansas. With this, widespread rain development is forecast Tuesday night, continuing through much of the day Wednesday. The best chance for appreciable rainfall by Wednesday evening will be across west central, central, and northern portions of southwest Kansas where the NBM suggests a 60-80% probability of 24-hr QPF topping 0.5 of an inch with much lesser amounts southeastward into south central Kansas.

Unseasonably warm temperatures are likely today as west-northwesterlydownsloping develops in wake of a trough axis advancing east throughsouthwest Kansas into south central Kansas by late afternoon, helping push H85 temperatures up around 20C in central Kansas to near 25C out near the Colorado line. Despite expected increasing high clouds, look for afternoon highs in the 80s(F) with the HREF painting a widespread 90% probability of temperatures pushing above 80F with a 70-90% probability of temperatures nudging above 85F in south central Kansas. A cold front will surge southward through western Kansas tonight, allowing much cooler air to spread through the region Tuesday with unseasonably colder air settling in Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 445 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR will continue through this TAF period, with increasing cirrus daylight Monday, and increasing midlevel clouds expected through Tuesday morning. Light winds will continue through 00z Tue. A strong but dry cold front will race through the airports 03-06z Tue, followed by a sharp increase in northeast winds, gusting near 35 kts.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.