textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong north winds and much cooler Tuesday.

- Cloudy Wednesday, but most of Wednesday will remain dry for most of SW KS. Severe thunderstorms may clip the southeast zones (south central Kansas) Wednesday evening.

- Sunny and dry, a pleasant spring day Thursday.

- Thunderstorms expected to remain south and east of SW KS on Friday.

- Dry and cooler Easter weekend, with a light freeze expected Easter morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Midday surface observations outlined the strong cold front clearing the Oklahoma border, with strong winds gusting 35-45 mph across SW KS. Northeast winds will begin diminishing about 4 pm. Between increasing cirrus and cold air advection, temperatures will be much cooler, struggling through the 60s at most locations this afternoon.

Light northeast winds overnight will veer easterly then southeast through Wednesday morning. Short term models agree this process will spread stratus into much of SW KS through sunrise Wednesday. Lows tonight mainly in the 40s.

Strong progressive shortwave near Grand Canyon, Arizona at 7 am Wednesday will race to western Kansas 7 pm Wednesday. Southeast to south winds ahead of the incoming shortwave will increase during the afternoon, supporting moisture advection, and dewpoints rising through the 40s, and 50s southeast of Dodge City. Cloud cover will be thick and persistent Wednesday, but most locations will be dry for most of daylight Wednesday. Arranged pop grids to reflect this thinking, with no mention of rain showers until about mid afternoon, when forcing for ascent ahead of approaching shortwave begins to arrive.

Surface based thunderstorm development is expected to favor the northeast Texas panhandle and NW OK after 4 pm Wednesday, amid the warm sector, east of the sharpening dryline, and south of the stationary frontal boundary across Kansas. Several CAMs including 12z ARW depict these initial supercells growing upscale and impacting the southeast zones Wednesday evening. The threat for large hail and/or damaging winds will be limited Wednesday evening to east of a Stafford-Coldwater line, and this only for a few hours. Fast moving, progressive shortwaves struggle to produce measurable/meaningful rainfall in most of SW KS this early in the spring, and we will see that play out again. Rainfall is expected to remain < 0.10 inch at most locations, with residency time of rain showers limited at any one locations. Rain amounts of 0.25 - 0.50 will be relegated to the far eastern zones, before thunderstorms move into central Kansas by midnight.

Strong subsidence behind the departing shortwave will bring sunshine back Thursday, with dry weather and winds rapidly becoming southerly again by late afternoon. Much warmer Thursday with afternoon temperatures rebounding to the 70s and 80s.

Strong midlevel closed 544 dm cyclone over Idaho 7 pm Thursday is modelled to be near Black Hills, South Dakota 7 pm Friday. This storm track is unusually far north for early April, and is expected to mostly, or completely, dryslot SW KS. A significant episode of severe thunderstorms is expected from NW OK through eastern Kansas Friday afternoon/evening, but models are trending toward the strong progressive cold front even clearing Barber county by 7 pm Friday. NBM pops are correctly trending strongly downward, with strong north winds expected.

Easter weekend will be dry, quiet and seasonably cooler, with expansive Canadian high pressure controlling the weather and sliding southeast across the plains. Light freezes are anticipated Saturday and/or Sunday mornings, with light winds, dry cool air and dry ground encouraging radiational cooling. Fortunately, the airmass does not appear cold enough to damage most vegetation, with sunrise temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

VFR will continue through 06z Wed with varying amounts of cirrus. Strong north winds in progress at 15z Tue, gusting 35-40 kts, will continue to impact aviation operations through 21z Tue, then gradually diminish through sunset. Consensus of short term models suggests MVFR stratus will build westward into SW KS after 06z Wed, with modest visbility reductions in BR.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Much warmer afternoon temperatures in the lower 80s are expected across western zones Thursday afternoon, which will reduce minimum relative humidity to less than 15%. South winds will increase quickly after noon Thursday, averaging 20-30 mph with gusts to near 40 mph through Thursday evening. Strong surface cyclone in NW KS Thursday evening will keep winds strong into the evening hours, and veering more SWly. After coordination with WFO AMA/PUB/GLD, a fire weather watch was issued for the western 6 counties Thursday, where the best overlap of critical wind and relative humidity is forecast.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.