textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers increasing in coverage and intensity overnight tonight. Heaviest rainfall amounts, up to one-half inch, most likely farther north (40-50% chance of 1/2" along K-96 corridor)

- Strong winds and low humidity early next week will result in high fire danger early next week. Near critical to critical fire weather conditions possible on Tuesday.

- Strong winds possible on Tuesday. There is a 35-60% chance that wind gusts in excess of 45 mph will be possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1019 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Attention in the forecast is initially on the near term through the day Saturday with our rainfall forecast. Our attention will then turn to Tuesday of next week for potential High Wind and a potentially high end Critical Fire Weather event.

The late evening water vapor loop and RAP objective analysis reveals a broken up shortwave trough ejecting northeast from the base of the larger scale trough. This broken up wave was once a well-formed upper low off the coast of Baja California. Overall, models have handled this ejection fairly poorly with frustrating run-to-run inconsistencies among all three global models and their ensemble systems. The initial wave of showers and thunderstorms was underway from West Texas through northwestern Oklahoma. Other disorganized shower activity was starting to develop across southwest Kansas, but rainfall rates were pretty low per 1-hr MRMS QPE analysis (upwards of 0.05" per hour). The heavier thunderstorms over northwestern Oklahoma will probably clip portions of Barber County, but this initial axis will mainly stay southeast of our forecast area. After midnight and until around daybreak, showers will increase in both coverage and intensity across southwest Kansas, so 1-hr rainfall rates should increase to around 0.10 to 0.25"/hr in the heaviest showers as they lift north-northeast.

The biggest change in the forecast is what is likely to happen now after daybreak and through the day Saturday. Short term models, including most CAMs, show the 700mb dry intrusion working in from the southwest more robustly than previous models. Thus, areas south of Highway 50 will likely see less precipitation than previous forecasts while areas north toward I-70 will probably see more than previous forecast given the shift north in forecast 700mb deformation axis once it sets up and stalls out. The storm system will pull away from western Kansas by Saturday afternoon and north winds will increase to around 15 to 20 mph, but there is essentially no tapping of cold air from the north, so the north winds will not lead to a period of cold weather following this storm.

The overall pattern change early next week will be significant, and Tuesday continues to be of concern with respect to both High Wind potential and widespread, perhaps high end Critical Fire Weather conditions. Deep leeside cyclogenesis will develop to the north of southwest Kansas, and all models show very strong 850-700mb winds, averaging 45-55 knots within this layer much of the day out of the southwest to west-southwest. The classic downslope will allow the boundary layer to really dry out and warm up, combined with the strong winds. Given such a strong signal, we will continue to use 75th percentile NBM winds for Tuesday and a combination of 75th and 90th percentile NBM wind gusts. This is a well-collaborated forecast adjustment off the baseline NBM from numerous WFOs and the WPC, so continued thanks to all the neighbors and WPC for keeping a consistent forecast going for Tuesday. Once we get the rain event out of the way, we will likely begin to enter the watch phase of Critical Fire Weather for Tuesday. The High Winds are a little less certain at this time (not quite the 50% confidence level), so we will need to lean on more model runs to gain more confidence in where highest winds will be Tuesday afternoon, but the GFS and its ensembles continue to support High Winds (gusts 58+ mph) particularly along and west of Highway 83.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 535 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Early morning KDDC observations show widespread rainfall is beginning to exit southwest KS, with HYS still within the precipitation shield and only small, isolated showers in the vicinity of DDC, GCK, and LBL. Despite precipitation exiting our area, MVFR to LIFR cigs and vis will continue through at least this evening, and potentially the entire period as erosion of the low cigs from northwest to southeast will commence around 22Z, but some uncertainty remains regarding how far southeast cigs will improve. Otherwise, current light and variable winds will increase out of the north after 16Z, peaking during the early/mid afternoon in the 14-18 kt range gusting to 25 kts, and relaxing back to light and variable by 02-04Z.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.