textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions likely through early next week.

- Seasonal temperatures through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

WV imagery indicates a westerly flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of weak ridging aloft transitioning slowly east through the Intermountain West. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure is drifting east through the Great Lakes.

Much drier conditions return to western Kansas through the weekend as the SREF indicates ridging aloft slowly building as it edges eastward across the Great Basin, lending to a fairly weak west- northwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Meanwhile, developing southerlies Saturday will be slow to tap into moisture, doing little to introduce/increase any instability to the area.

Seasonal temperatures are likely tonight as slowly departing surface high pressure across the Great Lakes does little to erode the cooler air mass within easterly upsloping across the high plains of western Kansas. The latest HREF shows a 70-90% probability of temperatures dropping below 50F in west central Kansas and much of southwest Kansas to 50-70% probability of temperatures slipping below 55F in south central Kansas, so look for lows generally down into the 40s(F), especially where skies remain mostly clear. The lower 50s(F) cannot be ruled out in south central Kansas where prevailing low level stratus just south of the Oklahoma line potentially edging back north a bit. Rebounding temperatures are likely Saturday as developing southerlies increase throughout the day as lee side troughing deepens in eastern Colorado. This will draw slightly warmer air northward into western Kansas, pushing H85 temperatures a little above 15C in central Kansas to near 20C near the Colorado line. Expect widespread afternoon highs in the 70s(F) with the HREF painting a 70-90% probability of temperatures exceeding 70F. Similar temperatures are forecast Sunday with a weak front projected to push southward through western Kansas early morning, helping cap the warming trend briefly.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1152 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through early Saturday. Light east-northeast winds through late afternoon are expected to turn more southeasterly generally after 23-01Z this evening as surface high pressure in the Great Lakes Region pushes farther east.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.