textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- There are small chances for t-storms through Thursday and better chances for Friday night and Saturday.

- Temperatures will generally be warm through Monday, with a cool down expected by Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Temperatures may fall close to the freezing mark next Wednesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1213 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

An upper level trough traversing the northern plains will push a weak cold front into central and northern Kansas this afternoon. Moisture is very limited; but steep lapse rates from the surface to 500mb along with the meager moisture and frontal convergence may be enough to spark isolated to scattered t-storms this evening. Despite marginal CAPE values of 1000 j/kg or less, marginally severe hail to quarter size can't be ruled out given the cold 500mb temperatures of -18C. Isolated wind gusts of 50-60 mph are also possible. The front will become stationary across Kansas on Thursday; and moisture is expected to slowly increase so that small chances of t-storms are expected again. The various ensemble means push the front into extreme southern Kansas by Friday afternoon where a few thunderstorms are possible--mainly south and east of Dodge City.

By Saturday a weak upper level trough will advance northeastward ahead of a larger upper level trough that will be organizing along the West Coast. Deep moisture will be in place by this time although lapse rates are progged to be poor, resulting in limited instability. However, a band of showers and embedded non-severe t-storms is expected to advance eastward across the southern plains, with best chances for significant rains across central Kansas eastward. For the combined Wednesday through Sunday period the Grand Ensemble shows high chances for .25" of rain across south central Kansas (70-80%), with lower chances of 50% or less across far western Kansas. But we are entering the time of year when precipitation amounts are spotty and highly variable.

Sunday is likely to be dry across southwest Kansas as the first system passes to the east and the larger upper level trough remains well to the west. The main large scale forcing with the larger trough will arrive Monday. However, the ensemble means show a lower amplitude system, with the deep low level moisture confined to central and eastern Kansas and points south. Severe t-storms are a possibility from Pratt and Medicine Lodge and points east, with mainly dry conditions across far western Kansas. Cooler air is predicted to arrive by the middle of next week, with temperatures possibly falling to near or just below freezing Wednesday morning.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

South-southwest winds at the onset of this TAF period will continue much of the day ahead of a slow-moving cold front. This cold front is expected to reach roughly a GCK to HYS line by 19-21Z time frame. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front, but not until after the front pushes through GCK and HYS, thus we will only include a PROB30 group for thunderstorms at the DDC terminal for a few hours early this evening. Otherwise, widespread VFR flight category will continue through this period.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.