textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer temperatures to end the weekend and for the start of the workweek

- Cooler temperatures and increasing rain chances for the middle of the week

- Other than some elevated fire weather concerns on Sunday we should have non impactful weather for the next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

18Z upper air and surface analysis shows a highly amplified ridge across the western CONUS with northwest flow across the northern and central plains. A 1022 mb surface high in eastern Kansas is combining with a weak lee side trough in eastern Colorado which is leading to relatively light and variable winds across western Kansas.

Overall a quiet weather pattern to end the weekend however we should have a little more wind on Sunday especially for areas from Liberal to Larned on east. Winds should pick up as a shortwave in eastern Colorado will deepen the surface low and a trough will line up across southwest Kansas by the afternoon. Winds should pick up to 10-20 mph with gusts approaching 25-30 mph in the afternoon. These winds will also usher in drier air as humidity values are forecast to fall to 10-15%. Areas in the Red Hills could see an elevated fire danger as the combination of strongest winds and lowest humidity values will occur there in the afternoon.

Monday should be one of the warmest days of the week as the ridge moves into the central plains and downsloping west to southwest winds will usher in a much warmer airmass. Forecast 850 mb temperatures should reach to around 25 (C) and with more clouds than sun through the day we should have highs reach into the upper 80s.

The weather pattern will turn colder and wetter for the middle parts of the week as a strengthening polar jet will bring a trough across the northern plains and a cold front blasts through western Kansas Tuesday morning. Highs on Tuesday are expected to be in the 50s and 60s. Rain chances will start to increase initially along the I-70 corridor where the best lift will be in the late afternoon. Tuesday night into Wednesday will give us the best chance of rain as a strong trough moves in from the northwest to provide good dynamic lift. The cold air mass should negate any sizable chances of storms and a such this event will be mainly rain. NBM probabilities of receiving 0.25 inches of rain in the 24 hour period from Tuesday night to Wednesday night are highest from Johnson to Hays with a 70- 80% chance and lesser probabilities as you go south and east in the state. Pratt to Ashland on east is at 40-50% chance of at least a quarter inch. Temperatures by sunrise Wednesday morning could be at or slightly below freezing that a few wet snowflakes can't be ruled out along the Colorado border.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1143 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR flight category for all terminals through the time period. Winds should remain 12 kts or less for most of the time period with the exception of LBL and DDC around 15-18Z with southwest winds picking up to around 15 kts with gusts as high as 25 kts.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.