textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild temperatures today in a modest downslope pattern. Elkhart likely to reach lower 60s for a high this afternoon.

- A major arctic air outbreak continues to be a concern for our southwest Kansas region beginning Friday.

- Minimum wind chills in the core of the outbreak likely to be -15 to -20 degrees (F) with one or two mornings (Saturday and/or Sunday) seeing actual air temperature lows around or below zero (F).

- Widespread, prolonged light snow is likely to accompany the arctic air from Friday into Saturday with plowable snow increasingly likely for much of the region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 350 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

The large scale hemispheric pattern has not changed much over the past several days as western Kansas remains within a northwest flow pattern. Intermittent shortwave troughs continued to move through the pattern from the northwest, and the next one will be sweeping quickly across the Great Plains late tonight. Ahead of this system, southwest surface winds will continue, and this will keep downslope momentum going in the lower troposphere, supporting afternoon temperatures in the 50s (even some lower 60s around Elkhart). This mild air mass will be fleeting, however, as the next surface cold front will push south late tonight. There will likely be an hour or two of fairly strong northwest winds within the region of greatest 3- hr MSLP rises. These strong winds will decrease by daybreak, become light and variable before shifting right back to the west-southwest through the day Wednesday. Wednesday temperatures will not be quite as mild as today as much of the air mass will be recirculated around the departing surface high. As we head into late Thursday, an anomalously cold arctic air mass will continue to build across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest as all global models now agree on the magnitude and areal extent of -20C or colder 850mb temperatures upstream.

This fresh arctic air mass will extend farther west than previous arctic air masses, and as we see the larger scale upper level jet stream structure shift toward a new southward digging jet across the Pacific Northwest region, the entire large scale trough will undergo a reorientation towards a positive tilt pattern, which is quite classic for allowing arctic air to drive south-southwest down the high plains, knifing across western Kansas and continuing south into the Southern Plains. Southwest Kansas will find itself in well into the core of this arctic air mass, and once we are in it, it will be several days before we see any sort of modest recovery. In fact, NBM continues to play catch up as latest runs are really going quite a bit colder for both Saturday and even Sunday. Given the anomalous air mass and models still playing catch up, NBM 10th percentile temperatures are still a good representation of what may actually occur and can usually be a good indicator of what future NBM runs will likely adjust towards as we get closer to the event. As of the 01Z run of the NBM, 10th percentile temperature keeps Dodge City at or below 15 degrees (F) for upwards of 60 hours in a row from early Friday through Sunday afternoon. During the peak of the arctic outbreak, minimum wind chills will likely fall to -15 to - 20F.

In addition, prolonged light snow is likely, which is quite typical of major arctic air outbreaks. Latest NBM has a large area of 0.25" or greater total QPF during the outbreak, which would lead to widespread snow accumulations of 3+". The mid- tropospheric zone of frontogenesis extending from west-southwest to east-northeast will not shift much Friday into Saturday as there may be multiple smaller scale shortwave disturbances rippling through the mid level baroclinic zone above the lower level arctic air mass. No matter how you slice it, the weekend weather around the entire region will likely be very poor with no real signs of improvement until sometime early next week. Keep checking back for updates concerning this dangerously cold air mass coming our way.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1032 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR conditions are expected for all TAF sites through the period. Winds will start from the southwest until a weak front passes through around 3Z. This will shift winds to from the north with some elevated cloud cover. Winds will then shift back to being from the southwest through the period. Winds will be variable in strength primarily around 5-15 KTs.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.