textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued warm and less humid conditions today

- Storms possible this evening across far southwest Kansas

- Strong front over the weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1111 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Today will be warm with highs in the upper 80s to around 90F. Some minor good news is that dewpoints are expected to only be in the 40s to 50s for much of the day. Enjoy the warm but less humid conditions today. For tonight, several CAMs shows convection developing off the Raton Mesa. These storms will eventually propagate eastward and could impact far southwest Kansas by evening. Storms could be strong to marginally severe with large hail and damaging wind threats. Have the highest confidence of storms across far southwest Kansas in the Elkhart to Liberal areas. For tonight, moisture advection will eventually ensue with increasing dewpoints through the overnight hours. This will lead to warmer lows with minimums mainly in the 60s.

For Saturday, a front will lift northward as a warm front. It is unclear exactly where this front will stall out before returning southward as a cold front during the evening. Therefore, there will be a rather significant gradient in highs from north to south depending on where the front stalls. In addition, an upper level wave move across the Great Plains will spark off storms along the front Saturday evening. Models are all over place with frontal placement and resultant placement of storms, so this is something that will have to be watched. There seems, though, there might be somewhat of a consensus for the southern zones to see the most likelihood of storms. Forecast skew-t/log-p's do suggest there should be enough instability and shear for strong to severe storms Saturday evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the most likely of storm threats.

As the front moves south early Sunday, dry air advection will take place in the wake of the front with decreasing dewpoints and a cooler air mass in its place. Highs Sunday will be very pleasant with values only peaking in the 70s along with lower humidity. Beyond Sunday, there might be enough upslope flow Monday to spark off isolated storms. Highs will continue to be pleasant with 70s. For the rest of the business week, models and their ensemble counterparts show increasing mid level heights with a broad ridge west of the FA. This would support the notion of a drier forecast and warm to hot highs and mild lows for the rest of the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1111 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

VFR is expected through TAF pd. Winds will eventually become SSE 10-20 kt with gusts in the 20s as the day continues. TSRA will be possible this evening. Have the highest confidence of TSRA impacting KLBL this evening. Have a prob30 group to account for this possibility. TSRA may be possible at other terminals, but this will have to be adjusted as confidence and trends become more clear in later TAFs and weather models.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.