textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer Temperatures Expected Early Next Week. Highs in the low 50s to mid 60s on Monday will warm into the 70s on Tuesday.

- Elevated Fire Weather Risk Monday along the Oklahoma border. Several hours of near critical fire weather conditions possible late day west of a Sublette to Meade line.

- Brief return to more seasonal temperatures mid week with a 20 to 50% chance for light rain. Despite this expected cool down, high temperatures are still forecast to be about 10 degrees above the seasonal normals.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1158 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

18Z synopsis shows a large trough associated with a nor`easter through the eastern CONUS and a building ridge in the western CONUS leading to northwest flow over Kansas. A departing surface high to the east and lee side trough along the front range of the Rockies is leading to strong south to southwesterly winds. These winds are ushering out the cold air mass we had this weekend and will begin the trend of warmer temperatures for the week.

Of note this February has been one of the warmest on record for southwest Kansas as average high temperatures have ranged from the upper 50s to mid 60s which is 11-16 degrees warmer than normal. This trend will continue for much of this week as we should stay more under the influence of ridge with periodic cold fronts only dropping us back into the upper 50s to lower 60s. For Tuesday we should have less wind as the upper level shortwave and surface low will be located in southwest Kansas and the pressure gradient will be less. Periodic mid to high level clouds will probably keep us from reaching into widespread upper 70s to lower 80s territory but with 850 mb temperatures at 15-19 (C) we should see highs in the mid 70s for much of southwest Kansas.

Mid range models show our first cold frontal passage of the week coming in Wednesday night with an upper level trough moving through the northern plains and a 700 mb shortwave moving through central Kansas. ENS and GEFS QPF outputs are only a few hundredths with the best chance of light rain mainly between Dodge City and Hays. NBM probabilities of greater than 0.1 inch are only at 10-20% so this will be a minor rain event.

The long term ensemble weather pattern for the weekend shows another large trough in the northern plains which will bring a cold front into western Kansas for Saturday. With the lack of surface moisture we have no POPs at this point. Temperatures should be much more seasonable for February standards this weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 520 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

A 40 to 45 knot low level jet will develop overnight east of a surface boundary that will move from eastern Colorado and into western Kansas overnight. As this surface boundary moves east, the low level jet will also shift east into central Kansas by daybreak Tuesday morning. Also south to southwest winds at around 15 knots ahead of this surface boundary will decrease to 10 to 15 knots and shift more to the west between 09z and 12z Tuesday. West winds at 10 to 15 knots will continue through mid day, then begin to shift back to the southwest at Garden City, Dodge City, and Liberal. In the Hays area a weak surface boundary will drop south into north central Kansas where it will become nearly stationary, resulting in the westerly winds here to wind shift to the north between 15Z and 18Z Tuesday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.