textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer temperatures today with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible each evening/night through Friday, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat.

- Strong upper level ridge will build over the weekend into next week, resulting in little to no precipitation chances and afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1155 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Late evening water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal weak ridging is in place atop the Desert Southwest, zonal flow across the northern Rockies/plains, and nebulous flow in between over the central plains. Short range guidance agrees the weak upper ridge will break down/retrograde further through the day Wednesday. Despite the weakening subsidence aloft, 850-mb temperatures are progged to increase by 4-5 degrees C, which will translate to afternoon highs in the upper 90s to low 100s. Late Wednesday afternoon, the combination of the retrograding ridge and a weak upper level disturbance moving across the northern plains will result in weak height falls/modest strengthening of zonal flow over the central plains. Latest HREF suggests thunderstorms will develop over southeast WY/northeast CO and adjacent areas amidst sufficient moisture/instability and deep-layer shear for updraft organization. With time, upscale growth into a mesoscale convective system (MCS) appears the most likely scenario as this activity moves southeast into northwest KS, potentially impacting our northern zones after sunset and bringing a marginally severe wind gust threat.

Daytime Thursday, little to no change in the synoptic pattern is expected as modest zonal flow remains anchored over the central and northern plains. In the wake of the previous night's MCS, convective outflow spread out over southwest KS will be modified by strong solar insolation, eventually resulting in southeast flow becoming re-established. As a result, afternoon highs will range from the low/mid 90s north of US-50 to the upper 90s/near 100 across our southern zones near the KS/OK border. Once again, a weak upper level impulse moving across the central Rockies will engender convective initiation over the higher terrain in eastern CO by mid-afternoon. HREF members exhibit strong agreement suggesting thunderstorms will rapidly congeal into an MCS, move east into western KS around 00Z, and roll across our area through the evening and into the overnight period. Given a favorable CAPE/shear parameter space, this MCS will pose a primarily severe wind gust threat, although severe hail is possible near the KS/CO border within any semi-discrete cells that can persist as convection enters our area.

Friday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles agree thunderstorms are once again possible Friday evening/night as yet another weak upper level wave ejects onto the central plains. Beyond Friday however, ensembles agree a strong, cut-off high will expand northward through the High Plains, with the core of this ridge reaching north of southwest KS. While this evolution likely means little to no precipitation chances, the warmest lower-tropospheric temperatures will be drawn north of our CWA, supporting afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s through mid- next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1148 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Southerly winds will become fairly light later this afternoon as a broad, but weak low pressure expands slowly across southwest Kansas. With the exception of LBL, winds should remain fairly light through this evening ahead of thunderstorms later tonight. Thunderstorms will remain in the TAFs for all airports DDC, GCK, LBL, and HYS (PROB30 group) for a 4-hour period. Given the hot air mass in place, the probability for VFR flight category much of this period is very high, except for a brief time in thunderstorms late tonight. After any storms late tonight, winds may briefly be gusty out of the northeast but eventually become light and variable as a weak synoptic pressure gradient remains in place across much of Kansas.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.