textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue with limited to areas of near elevated fire risk today and Wednesday.

- A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms to be possible late Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night, mainly north of the Dodge City area.

- Improving chances for widespread rainfall across southwest Kansas late this week and over the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1131 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

A surface boundary was located across northern Kansas earlier this evening. A weak upper level wave is moving from Colorado across northwest Kansas. Some models suggest very light rain/sprinkles with this upper wave as it passes. However due to dry air in the lower levels any overnight precipitation along this boundary will likely be very light with little, if any, accumulation and be focused mainly north of Garden City to Ness City line.

Short term models this evening suggests that the boundary across northern Kansas will lift northeast as a warm front as a upper level trough moves out of the Central Rockies and into the Western Central High Plains later this morning. This will keep a warm, westerly downslope flow across southwest Kansas which will once again allow afternoon temperatures to be 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal normals. Gusty south winds are also expected during the day as stronger boundary layer winds mix down to the surface, but dewpoints are forecast to be several degrees higher compared to Monday afternoon. This will result in a reduced fire weather risk despite another day of gusty south winds. Even with a lower fire risk, anyone with outdoor plans on Tuesday should be prepared for near elevated fire weather conditions west of Highway 83. This is due to afternoon humidity values as low as 20 percent and wind gusts exceeding 25 mph.

It will be another warm day across southwest Kansas on Wednesday as a northern branch upper level trough exits the Rockies and moves southeast into the Plains. As this upper trough moves out into Western High Plains during the afternoon, a surface cold front will drop south into northern Kansas by the early afternoon. At the same time deepening surface trough of low pressure over eastern Colorado will move into extreme southwest Kansas by mid day. Afternoon humidity values will fall back into the teen and may approach near 15% in a few areas of far southwest Kansas late day. While these low humidity values raise fire weather concerns Wednesday afternoon, these lower humidity values will be occurring near the surface trough of low pressure which will extend from extreme southwest Kansas into north central Kansas during the afternoon. Near this boundary lighter wind speeds are expected and these lighter wind speeds will continue to support a limited to near elevated fire risk Wednesday afternoon.

In addition to the fire risk concerns Wednesday afternoon we will also be monitoring the chance for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms developing during the afternoon along the cold front and the surface trough Kansas as the northern branch upper level trough exiting the Rockies approaches from the northwest. Improving afternoon instability along with enhanced low level forcing from these boundaries, will create a favorable environment for the potential for late day storms to develop ahead of this approaching upper trough despite limited low level moisture. The better potential for thunderstorms however may hold off until after sunset when a low level jet strengthens, enhancing warm air and moisture advection. At this time, it appears that the main hazard from the stronger storms Wednesday night will be hail with isolated gusty winds should storms develop late day. The SPC Day 3 Outlook aligns well with this potential, placing a Marginal Risk north of Dodge City for late Wednesday and early Wednesday night.

From Thursday through the upcoming weekend, a prolonged period of rainfall opportunities can be expected across southwest Kansas. A frontal boundary, located over northern Kansas on Wednesday afternoon, will drop south to the Oklahoma border by Thursday morning before returning northward later that day. This frontal boundary will then continue oscillating across southwest Kansas from Friday into the weekend, serving as the key feature determining where the better chances for rain may occur each day. During the same time frame southerly winds will draw Gulf moisture northward toward southwest Kansas as multiple upper level waves embedded in the developing southwest flow crosses the area. Based on the latest consensus from the ensemble clusters, the best opportunity for widespread beneficial rainfall across the majority of southwest Kansas will occur between Friday and Sunday, with the higher rainfall potential being east of Highway 283. This is based on where the better moisture return is forecast to be located and the timing of several upper level waves embedded in the southwest flow and a 250mb jet streak moving out of the based of the upper trough positioned over the Desert Southwest towards southwest Kansas. At this time, it is too early to determine exact rainfall amounts, but based on the 72-hour rainfall totals for this event ending at 7 am Monday, there is a 60 to 90% chance that rainfall totals may exceed 0.25. The best chance (80-90%) will be east of Highway 183.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1131 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

For Hays tonight a east wind will be at near 15 knots due to a surface boundary being located just south of the Hays area. These east winds will gradually veer to the south between 15Z and 18Z as this boundary lifts north. The winds will then increase to 15 to near 20 knots between 18Z and 21Z as stronger winds in the boundary layer mix down to the surface. BUFR soundings indicate VFR conditions over the next 14 hours, but there is a small chance (<20%) that a broken IFR deck of stratus will be possible between 09Z and 15Z due to the easterly winds.

For Garden City, Dodge City, and Liberal...VFR conditions can be expected over the next 24 hours. South southeast winds at 10 to 15 knots will increase to 15 to near 20 knots between 15Z and 18Z today, with gusts in excess of 30 knots possible during the afternoon. Winds will decrease slightly after sunset but will remain in the 15 to 20 knot range through 06Z Wednesday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.