textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog development is likely tonight, especially northeast of Dodge City, reducing visibility to 1/4 mile at times.

- Stubborn cloud cover and northerly winds will maintain the cool airmass across southwest KS Tuesday.

- Much stronger upper level wave will bring the potential for fire and severe weather Thursday/Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1050 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis at 04Z reveals nearly zonal flow is in place atop the central plains, with a low-amplitude trough upstream near the Great Basin. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is well underway in eastern CO and adjacent areas, supporting moist southeasterly upslope flow across southwest KS resulting in mostly cloudy skies that will persist through the overnight period. Fog development is also likely as HREF members suggest, especially northeast of Dodge City, however some spatial disagreement precludes a Dense Fog Advisory until we see the whites of its eyes.

Daytime Tuesday, southeasterly winds will trend northerly as the aforementioned surface low tracks near the KS/OK border before weakening/redeveloping farther south. A large spread in afternoon temperatures exists amongst guidance, implying a low confidence forecast. However, a weak sun angle that will struggle to mix out low clouds, cold advection, and a cool airmass already in place yields strong conviction the cold air will prevail. Therefore, afternoon highs in the low to mid 40s along and N of US-50 to the mid 50s/near 60 along the KS/OK border can be expected. Tuesday night, most HREF members suggest elevated convection will materialize favoring our far southeast zones ahead of the approaching upper level shortwave trough. Steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient shear could support marginally severe hail, and this risk is reflected in SPC's current Day 2 convective outlook outlining a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) across our far southeast counties.

The upper level shortwave will finally eject into the central plains daytime Wednesday, allowing subsidence in its wake to erode the stubborn cloud cover from west to east. With the increased solar insolation, afternoon temperatures should easily rise into the mid/upper 60s.

Focus then shifts to a much higher amplitude upper level trough that will make its way to near Las Vegas, NV, by 00Z Friday. Strong lee cyclogenesis in eastern CO ahead of this feature will foster considerable southeasterly winds (theta-e advection) across southwest KS daytime Thursday, along with a dryline that is progged to take shape around the KS/CO border to US-83 corridor. Solutions that depict this dryline farther west are preferred given the placement of the upper trough still well upstream, implicating convective concerns will dominate over fire weather. Thunderstorms are expected to erupt along the dryline during the mid-afternoon and move northeast with time. The CAPE/shear parameter space will support organized updrafts, including supercells, that will pose a large hail and damaging wind gust risk. This risk may bleed into Friday as the parent upper wave remains largely static, however guidance suggests it will shed a shortwave trough that will rapidly eject onto the High Plains, drawing the surface low to the northeast and its attendant dryline through much, if not all, of southwest KS. The end result appears to be a transition to fire weather as strong southwesterly winds arise in the wake of the dryline.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1055 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Surface observations show IFR stratus and fog are continuing to impact HYS, while all other terminals sit in VFR. Short range guidance suggests stratus and fog will expand westward with time, resutling in cigs and vis as low as VLIFR through the overnight period into Tuesday morning. Otherwise, current light and variable winds will continue through the overnight period, followed by an increase out of the north late Tuesday morning to aoa 12 kts.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.