textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- A return to very hot temperatures tomorrow on dry southwesterly winds. 100 to 105F highs likely, hottest across the Red Hills region.

- Marginal (Level 1) to Slight (Level 2) Risk severe storms clipping the northeastern DDC CWA, particularly Hays to Larned area ahead of advancing cold front.

- Very hot temperatures likely to return by the weekend with 100 to 105F highs starting Saturday and probably continuing through next Tuesday (Aug. 25th)

UPDATE

Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Strong downslope SWly prefrontal compression will send temperatures soaring Tuesday afternoon, particularly in the favored southeast zones (Medicine Lodge to Red Hills). Increased temperatures toward the hottest guidance, above NBM. The resulting apparent temperatures of 104-108 necessitated a heat advisory, matching WFO Wichita/Norman, Tuesday afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

After a couple of days break from 100-degree heat, we will see widespread highs 100+ for much of southwest Kansas on a breezy southwest downslope wind. Thankfully, this will only be a one-day occurrence this workweek as another cold front will advance on Kansas late in the afternoon and especially evening. The downslope component being a drying wind, we expect dewpoints to fall well down into the 50s by mid afternoon as temperatures reach 100 degrees. We were on the fence as to whether to hoist a Heat Advisory, but decided to give it one more look by the incoming swing and/or mid shift to issue if confidence in fairly widespread 105+ heat indices increases.

Along the advancing frontal zone, widely scattered thunderstorms are likely to form, especially closer to central Kansas where low level convergence will likely be strongest. While the greatest threat for severe will be just north and east of even our northeastern counties, it will be close enough to bear watching, and given the fairly decent CAPE/Shear combo (6km AGL winds 35 to 40 knots from the west-northwest with boundary layer winds southerly 10 to 20 knots), the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook of 5 to 15% Large Hail outlook with an associated CIG1 outlook for hail (conditional risk of 2"+ diameter hail) seems justified. Any storm which does form far enough west across our northeastern counties should move into NWS Wichita's forecast area fairly quickly by early evening. Additional strong to severe storms will also likely occur in a post-frontal upslope regime well to the north-northwest of our DDC forecast area, so the risk from storms up in that area isn't as great as far as surviving down into west central Kansas later at night.

Following the hot day Tuesday, we will see another pull back in temperature Wednesday and Thursday only to see a return back to upper 90s to lower 100s by the weekend as the summer subtropical high makes a rebound across the High Plains. Latest NBM 50th percentile highs Saturday through Tuesday show 100 degrees across pretty much the southern half of the DDC CWA with some 105F potential one or two of those days closer to the Oklahoma line (especially the Red Hills region).

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 432 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF period, with VFR/SKC, light winds through 15z Tue, and scattered cirrus. After 15z Tue, southwest winds will increase at all airports, gusting 24-28 kts. A cold front is expected to provide a northeast wind shift to the airports just after this TAF period, 00-06z Wed.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ066-080-081- 088>090.