textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Several chances for rain across southwest Kansas with multiple MCS events

- Severe weather threat with the MCS events as strong winds and large hail will be the main threat and a low (2%) tornado risk for later today

- Temperatures will trend cooler for the mid week with the increased cloud cover from the storms

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

05Z synopsis shows a large upper level low centered over eastern Montana with mid level flow out of the southwest through the central plains. Embedded in the upper level flow is a series of shortwaves extending from southeast Colorado back through central New Mexico.

For today I included a morning chance (~20%) of storms along the I- 70 corridor around sunrise as short term models are showing some upper level lift from a 700 mb Gen band and shortwave combining with moisture and increasing CAPE values during the night. A handful of CAM models are hinting at a line of storms from northwest Kansas through north central Kansas. There is also a small chance of some fog developing mainly around Hays with the increasing moisture however the better probability of fog look to be towards the east.

Through the late morning and afternoon hours we should have sunshine which will help to destabilize the atmosphere and with lower level moisture and the shortwave from New Mexico entering into southeast Colorado we should see convection start to break out in the mid afternoon. Short term models have a cluster of storms moving into western Kansas from Colorado in the evening hours with HRRR models hinting at strong cold pooling and wind gusts in the order of 60-70 mph. 850 mb winds are forecast to strengthen as well to 40-50 kt 0- 6km bulk shear which would support a large hail threat. If the storm mode is QLCS in nature this would also support the low end threat of a quick spin up tornado. The complex of storms should continue to grow upscale to the east as it enters into the higher CAPE and moisture and will keep a wind threat for areas from Hays to Pratt during the late evening.

Tuesday we should see a similar setup with the mid and upper level flow out of the southwest and another series of shortwaves coming out of southeast Colorado. With residual morning cloud cover on Tuesday it could take a little long for the sun to destabilize the atmosphere and temperatures are cooler reflecting the cloud cover effect. However we should see clouds break by afternoon in the west with another MCS developing in eastern Colorado and western Kansas by late afternoon. Severe threats will be strong winds and large hail again. Wednesday looks like another repeat setup with a MCS developing in the late afternoon and evening hours. This week should help to give much of western Kansas some desperately needed rainfall as QPF forecasts give much of western Kansas over 1 inch of rain and NBM probabilities of 1 inch of rain from Monday through Wednesday is at 50-60% for much of southwest Kansas. .

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1208 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

For HYS and DDC the probabilities are low (~10%) but there could be some patchy fog between 11Z-15Z which would drop flight categories to MVFR or IFR. The main weather feature will be a MCS that develops later this afternoon and will affect all terminals. PROB30 for GCK, LBL, and DDC between 20-02Z and HYS between 01-06Z. These storms will drop ceilings to MVFR or IFR category and risk of downburst winds over 50 kts are possible.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.