textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Records highs possible for Garden City and Dodge City today and on Christmas

- Lack of moisture and an overall ridging pattern will keep southwest Kansas dry at least for the next 7-10 days

DISCUSSION

Issued at 208 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Upper air analysis shows a large subtropical high extending from northern Mexico to the gulf with generally zonal to weak ridging flow in the mid levels. At the surface a 1008 mb low is centered just west of the Kansas-Colorado border and the pressure gradient is keeping winds breezy through the night.

Today we should see a slight eastward movement of the surface low which should reduce surface winds across southwest Kansas and keep the axis of higher winds more into central and eastern Kansas. With weak downslope flow, dry ground and greater amounts of sunshine I went with NBM75th percentile for highs especially in our central and western zones which would give highs of 75 for Dodge City and Garden City with a run at 80 degrees near Elkhart. Records for Dodge City today is 73 and 78 in Garden. The NBM percentages for over 73 degrees is 50% in Dodge and 12% for over 78 in Garden which suggests that record high potential is pretty good today.

A weak cold front moves in on Tuesday dropping temperatures back into the 60s but the return of unseasonably warm air comes in Christmas eve and day. Southwest winds and more sun than clouds both days will allow for the weaker insolation this time of year to have full effect. 850 mb temperatures are forecast to be around 20 (C) both days and we should see highs in the mid 70s for Christmas eve and upper 70s to lower 80s Christmas day. Latest NBM probabilities for over 80 degree highs have increased to 40-70% across much of southwest Kansas. Record highs on Christmas for Dodge City and Garden City are both 74 degrees with NBM probabilities stating 90-95% chance of temperatures greater than that ensuring we should probably achieve record highs for Christmas.

With long range ensembles showing an overall weather pattern of a subtropical high over the gulf and zonal to ridging flow aloft across the CONUS...there is little to suggest any precipitation activity through this week and into early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1158 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

A weak surface trough over the high plains will move slowly eastward, resulting in light winds through the period. Upper level ridging will result in mostly clear skies.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.