textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue tonight through Thursday morning, with a clearing sky anticipated Thursday afternoon.

- Any scattered strong thunderstorm redevelopment Thursday afternoon would strongly favor the eastern counties (central Kansas).

- Hotter afternoon temperatures in the lower 90s Friday, with breezy south winds.

- Another opportunity for showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and night, favoring southeast zones (south central Kansas).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Satellite and radar imagery depicted a shortwave with an embedded mesoscale convective vorticity max (MCV) centered near far SW KS. Showers and thunderstorms have been increasing in the strong ascent ahead of this shortwave over the past several hours, providing more beneficial rainfall for areas west of US 83. Model guidance shows the shortwave/vorticity max only very slowly pivoting into SW KS through sunrise, spreading showers and thunderstorms eastward overnight. Pops remain in the definite category (> 80%) for the next several hours. Satellite and radar trends support a heavy rainfall trend through tonight, but even marginally severe hail/wind is not expected given moist profiles and poor wind shear.

Shortwave trough axis will move eastward across SW KS Thursday morning, with subsidence behind the shortwave gradually clearing the sky from west to east during the day. Most locations will be dry Thursday afternoon, with NBM pops very limited and restricted to the far eastern zones at peak heating. This lines up with the overwhelming CAM consensus, that any thunderstorm redevelopment after 4 pm will either be east of the DDC CWA, or be in Stafford to Barber counties very briefly, before moving east. Marginal 5% wind/hail probability from SPC is valid, but it is expected that any organized severe weather will focus on central/northeast Kansas Thursday afternoon and evening. With afternoon sunshine and breezy south winds, afternoon temperatures will warm easily into the upper 80s.

All locations are expected to remain dry Friday, with noticeably hotter afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 90s. Wet topsoils and standing water from recent rainfall will likely keep temperatures below the hottest guidance.

A weak synoptic pattern is expected into the weekend. Global models place a weak 580 dm southern stream closed low near Far West Texas 7 pm Friday, with general agreement this system will eject northeast toward the central plains by 7 pm Saturday. Weak steering flow keeps predictability somewhat limited, but ensembles suggest the next opportunity for rain will come from this system Saturday afternoon/night. NBM probability of measurable QPF (> 0.01 inch) strongly favors the southeast zones, ranging from 90% at Medicine Lodge, to 5% at Syracuse. NBM pops follow this gradient and were accepted.

After the Saturday shortwave passes, a warming trend is evident, with NBM max temperatures continually climbing each day Sunday through Wednesday. 00z GFS shows progressively climbing 500 mb heights early next week, with a 592 dm upper high near NW OK by Wednesday. In response, NBM forecasts high temperatures near 100 Wednesday afternoon.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 544 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

A departing MCV in southwest Kansas will bring an end to the rain and cloud cover during the mid morning hours. Expect flight categories to transition from IFR/MVFR to VFR flight category or GCK, DDC, and HYS between 12-15Z. A redeveloping isolated storm between 18-21Z could lead to VCTS at HYS however the probabilities should be under 30s.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.