textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure aloft will strengthen over southwest Kansas through Tuesday, delivering a mainly clear sky and progressively hotter afternoons. Afternoon temperatures of 100+ degrees will be common. Heat advisories will be required for eastern zones each day, where the heat index meets or exceeds 105 degrees.

- SW KS will remain largely dry for the upcoming week. High pressure will sag southward some Wednesday night, which may allow some thunderstorms to at least approach the northern zones Wednesday night and again Thursday night.

- Hot afternoons will persist through next weekend, with afternoon temperatures above late July normals.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

A simple summertime weather regime will continue through Tuesday, as strong midlevel high pressure expands and strengthens over SW KS. The only impact to consider is exactly how hot the afternoons will get. NBM has been too cool now for a few days, running about 4-5 degrees below reality. 00z NAM MOS appears to be capturing thermal trends correctly, with all models showing heights, thickness and 850 mb temperatures all increasing through Tuesday. An upper high near 597 dm is projected near DDC by Tuesday afternoon, with the afternoon heat continuing to build. Grids will carry temperatures near 100 at 4 pm for all zones Monday, and as high as 103-105 Tuesday directly under the core of the ridge's subsidence. This said, some guidance appears too hot Tuesday, with a weak cool front/NEly wind shift sliding into SW KS during the afternoon. It's hard to believe the hottest guidance given poor mixing and lack of downslope. Regardless, significant heat impacts are expected both Monday and Tuesday afternoons, with heat advisories necessary where heat indices meet or exceed 105 (generally east of US 283). Maintained the inherited heat advisory for the eastern zones Monday. Another heat advisory is expected to be required for at least Barber county and vicinity Tuesday, pending the expected NEly wind shift progress.

After several afternoons with a healthy cumulus field and even some small rain showers, subsidence will increase strongly Monday and Tuesday, limiting cumulus and keeping pops at/near zero.

Model guidance allows the center of the 597 dm ridge to sag southward Wednesday through Wednesday night, with the ridge axis settling near the Red River valley of North Texas. This evolution will allow for the heat to relax several degrees, back into the 90s, so a heat advisory does not look necessary. Daylight Wednesday will remain dry, but a weak shortwave wave rounding the northern periphery of the southward-displaced ridge will likely ignite a thunderstorm complex/MCS across Nebraska and northern Kansas Wednesday night. Some of this may reach the northern zones, north of K-96, as NBM pops suggest.

Thursday through the upcoming weekend, the ridge is expected to retrograde westward back to New Mexico, with heights near 600 dm over New Mexico by Saturday night. Another shortwave rounding the northeast periphery of the ridge may allow more thunderstorms into western Kansas Thursday night as global models and NBM pops suggest. Otherwise, the hot afternoons typical of July will continue.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF period, with VFR/SKC and light south/southeast winds prevailing.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ031-046-065- 066-079>081-089-090.