textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Very windy conditions late tonight and Tuesday with wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph possible through at least noon Tuesday.

- Temperatures falling back into the 30 to 35 degree range early Wednesday morning west and north of the Dodge City area.

- Seasonal Temperatures late week with a 40-70% chance for light rain Wednesday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1105 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Earlier this evening an upper level trough was located over western Kansas. Under this upper level trough a strong cold front was crossing southwest Kansas with surface observations already reporting wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph reported behind this front at of 04z. This cold front will continue to cross all of southwest Kansas by early Tuesday morning as this upper level trough moves slowly east/northeast across Kansas. The strong gusty winds behind this front will continue through Tuesday and usher in some colder air into the area which will result in afternoon temperatures Tuesday afternoon being around 15 degrees cooler compared to the highs that occurred across southwest Kansas on earlier today (Monday). Given these temperatures and strong gusty winds expected through the day it will feel colder than this Tuesday afternoon. Afternoon wind chills in the 40s/lower 50s will be possible for many locations west or north of Dodge City. The ongoing convection across portions of southwest Kansas early this morning from the wrap around moisture and enhanced lift near the 500mb deformation zone just W/NW of the upper trough will taper off from southwest to northeast by noon.

Very windy conditions late tonight and Tuesday with wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph possible through at least noon Tuesday. An upper level trough crossing western Kansas will deepen a surface low over Central Kansas overnight and early Tuesday. This will result in tight surface pressure gradient over southwest Kansas. This combined with forecast 850mb north northwest winds of 45 to 50 knots indicated the potential for wind gusts to be stronger than what the latest NBM guidance suggest, at least through 18z Tuesday. BUFR soundings momentum transfer and even the REFS 10m wind gusts both are in agreement with the potential stronger winds/wind gusts. Based on this combined with the 04z surface observations behind this cold front it appears the stronger winds will be more reasonable. Have therefore favored the stronger 75th percentile of the NBM for winds over the next 24-36 hours.

Temperatures falling back into the 30 to 35 degree range early Wednesday morning west and north of the Dodge City area. Early Tuesday night the gusty northwest winds which ushered in the cold air into southwest Kansas Monday night and Tuesday will decrease to less than 10 mph as the surface pressure gradient weakens across southwest Kansas. Clear skies and light winds Tuesday night will create a favorable environment for temperatures to easily fall back well into the 30s by early Wednesday morning with frost or even a few locations waking up to temperatures around 32, mainly west and north of the Dodge City area.

Seasonal Temperatures late week with a 40-70% chance for light rain Wednesday night. As our Monday storm system moves east of the area Tuesday and progressive, weaker, upper level trough will take aim on western Kansas mid week. Ensembles were in good agreement with weak forcing and limited moisture will be present ahead of this next system as the upper wave quickly crossing western Kansas Wednesday night. As a result the ensemble clusters have only a 20-40% chance for 24 hour rainfall totals ending at 6pm Thursday to be greater than 0.25 inches. A surface boundary/weak cold front will briefly move into southwest Kansas following this upper trough but then quickly lift back north. This will keep temperatures in the 50s/lower 60s Wednesday and Thursday and then warm back into the mid 60s by Friday/Saturday as an upper level ridge exits the Rockies and moves out into the plains. These temperatures late week are near the seasonal normals for this time of year.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 410 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Strong northwest winds will continue through the morning with a gradual decrease in wind speed from midday on through the afternoon. From late morning through mid afternoon, remaining stratus ceiling in the 1200 to 2000 foot range, mostly, gradually scatter out. Widespread VFR flight category will prevail from early evening through the remainder of this TAF period ending early Wednesday morning.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.