textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread Rain Event Expected Friday Night through Saturday. There is a 50% chance that rainfall totals in excess of 0.5 inches will be possible across south central Kansas. Isolated higher amounts can not be ruled out in the Pratt and Medicine Lodge areas.

- Very windy conditions and near critical or critical fire risk possible across portions of southwest Kansas early next week, especially on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1158 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

The 500mb flow this morning remains west northwesterly across the Central United States, with a weak upper level disturbance embedded in this flow moving southeast toward the Ohio Valley. As this system moves east/southeast, a weak surface boundary will drop south into the Texas Panhandle of Oklahoma. Further west, a stronger, southern branch upper level trough, located over California early this morning, is forecast to move through the Desert Southwest. As this upper level trough approaches the Rockies today, falling pressures will occur across eastern Colorado as a surface trough of low pressure develops by early Friday. This setup will tighten the surface pressure gradient across southwest Kansas, resulting in a developing south southeast wind early in the day Friday that will increase through the afternoon. Although dry conditions are expected through early Friday across southwest Kansas, isentropic lift and warm air advection will begin to increase north of the cold front tonight and Friday as the California upper level system crosses the southwest United States and approaches the Texas Panhandle.

By late Friday, the upper level trough will move into the southern Rockies as an 850-700mb low begins to develop over northeast New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. East of this developing low, the low level winds will increase, advecting higher Gulf moisture northward to central Kansas. Latest models suggest these gusty south winds will draw Precipitable Water values near 0.75inch into south central Kansas, which is around the 90th percentile for mid February.

This moisture return, combined with improving isentropic lift and warm air advection near the nose of a low level jet which will be located ahead of the approaching upper trough, will result in a chance for precipitation starting late Friday (20-30%) increasing to >80% around midnight and then continuing through Saturday. This widespread rain event will occur until the upper trough moves out into the southern Plains and the 850-700mb low tracks east/northeast toward north central Oklahoma/south central Kansas by Saturday evening. This extended period of widespread rain and high precipitable water values easily support the latest QPF forecast of a greater than 50% chance for rainfall totals to be greater than 1/2 inch across south central Kansas by Saturday evening. Also would not be surprised to see locally high amounts across south central Kansas (mainly in Pratt and Medicine Lodge areas) given the forecast high precipitable water values (PWATs) near the nose of the low level jet. Further north and west, PWATs will be lower, and the window of opportunity for widespread rainfall will be smaller, resulting in less accumulation Friday night through early Saturday. As a result, locations west of Highway 83 and along the I-70 corridor currently have a 50-70% chance that rainfall totals from this evening will be less than 0.25 inches.

Rain will end across western Kansas late Saturday/Saturday night as the upper trough moves east. An upper level ridge will quickly build in on Sunday and then track east across the Central United States early next week. Meanwhile, a significant upper trough will drop south along the West Coast by Monday and deepen across the western United States. This pattern sets the stage for another period of dry and unseasonably warm conditions next week.

In addition to the warmth, winds will increase early next week due to a deepening surface low developing east of the Rockies and steep low level lapse rates favoring deep mixing. This mixing will tap into stronger 850-700mb winds, possibly near 50 knots at this level according to some models. These strong winds, combined with low humidity, will create a high fire weather risk across much of southwest Kansas. The NBM already suggests near critical to critical fire weather conditions early next week. Given the NBM's tendency for low wind bias late in the week, the strong mid level winds, and expected lower dewpoints, fire weather conditions could expand to cover more of southwest Kansas, especially on Tuesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 500 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

The meteorological setting will continue to favor good aviation conditions through this TAF period. Winds will remain light with all terminals expected to remain 10 knots or less through pretty much the entire period through Friday afternoon. High clouds will thicken through the period with mid level clouds coming in during the day Friday ahead of the next storm system, however low level ceilings of MVFR or IFR are not expected until later on Friday Night, after the end of this TAF period.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.