textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Limited risk for thunderstorms across far southeast counties for a few hours Saturday evening. Most locations will remain dry.

- Forecast carries temperature uncertainty Sunday; temperatures will dependent on frontal boundary placement.

- Hot with strong south winds Monday, near record afternoon temperatures near 100.

- Next cold front expected to provide showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Midday surface analysis depicted a well-defined cold front, that had already cleared much of SW KS. Northeast winds behind the cold front were above all guidance, per usual, gusting near 30 mph, but are expected to weaken by late afternoon as pressure gradients begin to weaken. 12z ARW/NAM have caught on to this faster cold frontal timing, with any convergence on the boundary expected to be near the Oklahoma border by peak heating late this afternoon. Indeed, most if not all convection may end up in Oklahoma. Upstream air mass across the central plains is quite cool and dry for September, and it appears models are struggling to capture the cold front's advance. Confined pops further to the far southeast zones this evening. A small window of opportunity will exist for a marginally severe storm across the southeast counties, either along the surface convergence zone, or elevated north of the front. High end/significant severe weather is unlikely. Temperatures this afternoon will struggle to reach NBM guidance in the cooler northeast winds.

Increasing midlevel clouds are expected tonight north of the stalling frontal boundary, but dry weather will prevail with Sunday sunrise temperatures in the 60s.

Some temperature uncertainty is apparent in the forecast for Sunday, with models disagreeing on where the nearly stationary frontal boundary will end up through the afternoon. NAM solutions are much cooler, with the front remaining near the Oklahoma border through Sunday. Given afternoon sunshine, and 850 mb temperatures still near 20C, feel MET guidance of 70s north and 80s south is too cold, but NBM is probably too hot. Global models are more enthusiastic returning the front to near US-50 by late afternoon, so opted for 80s northeast counties ranging to near 100 near Oklahoma. A strong capping inversion (700 mb temps near 16C) is expected to prevent convective initiation on the boundary Sunday afternoon. Still, an isolated storm or two is possible Sunday evening as the low level jet cranks up and starts shoving the boundary northward, and kept NBM's minimal pops for this possibility.

Monday will be hottest day of this forecast period, with near record highs near 100 expected. Pressure gradients will support strong southwest winds Monday, averaging 25-35 mph, gusting to near 45 mph. With this downslope compression acting on a hot well mixed boundary layer, temperatures will soar to record levels Monday, and added 1-2 degrees to NBM guidance.

Strong shortwave trough crossing the northern plains Monday night will send the next cold front into SW KS Tuesday. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front Tuesday afternoon, with strong to marginally severe wind and/or hail possible. A large temperature range is correctly forecast by NBM, ranging from 75 north to near 100 in Barber county. NBM pops are into the definite/categorical range (near 80%) Tuesday night, with various signals of MCS development across at least portions of Kansas. Will need to monitor Tuesday night for heavy rain/hydrology and strong storm concerns. Additional rain and thunderstorms are likely Wednesday night, as SWly midlevel flow is maintained. With clouds, rain chances, and the midlevel summer ridge removed well east of SW KS, afternoon temperatures should be restricted to the 80s for much of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 607 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Evening convection across south central and portions of southwest Kansas will taper off after 03z. The two locations which may that the greatest risk of observing thunderstorm activities will be Dodge City and Liberal but Dodge City will have the greatest risk (30%). Given this will include on a prob30 in the Dodge City TAF this evening while leaving the remainder of the TAFs dry. East to southeast winds will continue overnight at 10 knots. These easterly winds overnight may result in another round of IFR ceilings and patchy fog early Sunday morning. Guidance once again not overly excited about this but given the depth of the low level moisture, mainly near Hays, and what occurred earlier this morning have decided to go ahead and be more pessimistic with the fog (1-3sm) and stratus (1000-1500ft AGL) at Hays and Dodge City between 9z and 15z Sunday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.