textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures around 100 degrees to start the workweek

- Best opportunity for rain will be Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with 40-50% probability of locations along and west of highway 283 receiving 0.25 inch or more of rainfall

- Storms Tuesday night have a slight risk of severe weather from SPC with wind as the greatest threat

- Cooling trend for midweek followed by the return of 100 degree temperatures this weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

05Z synopsis shows spotty showers and storms located from the Colorado border to near Liberal as a 500-700 mb shortwave is moving into western Kansas due to northwest flow aloft.

Short term models have the upper level wave, cloud cover, and any rain exiting the region by mid morning. Winds throughout the day should be light with a looser pressure gradient across western Kansas. By late afternoon hotter air from the southwest should arrive into far western Kansas and with ample sunshine NBM probabilities of hitting 100 degrees are at 40% for areas along and south of highway 160. With continued northwest flow in the mid levels another 500-700 mb shortwave will develop in the front range in the late afternoon triggering convection. With the upper level high breaking down to the southwest this should allow the convection to reach into western Kansas after sunset and the storms will decay as they move eastward through the night.

Tuesday the day should start off with residual cloud cover in the morning as the shortwave moves onto the east and more easterly surface winds. This will keep temperatures at bay through the morning but by afternoon with the return of sunshine and southerly winds we should see the return of mid 90s. By mid to late afternoon short term models have a stout mid level shortwave coming from southern Nebraska into north central Kansas. We could see storm development as early as 4 pm in our eastern zones. Another front range shortwave should trigger a line of convection in eastern Colorado and move into western Kansas during the overnight hours. POP has increased with the newest model guidance to 50-80%. NBM probabilities continue to show a 40-50% chance of at least 0.25 inch of precipitation west of highway 283 suggesting this round of storms will have better lift and more moisture to work with. MUCAPE values from various models Wednesday morning are in the 2000-3000 range and skew t soundings suggest elevated convection with not much bulk shear which would lead to mainly a wind threat and localized heavier rainfall with the stronger storms.

The persistent weather pattern continues into Wednesday night as medium range models show another late night shortwave passing through Kansas giving much of western Kansas another decent shot of rain with POPs in the 40-50% range. The repeated opportunities for rain along with the upper high departing slightly westward should allow highs to be slightly cooler mid to late week with highs in the lower 90s. Long term ensembles have the upper high moving back to the east during the weekend allowing a higher probability of hotter weather to return. NBM probabilities of 100 degree highs are back into the 40-90% range for much of western Kansas for Saturday and Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1125 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

VFR flight category with surface winds in general 15 kts or less for all terminals during the time period. A band of spotty showers and storms will be around GCK, LBL, and DDC through 08Z however probabilities should stay under 30% and only a TEMPO is included for LBL at this time from 06-07Z due to the storms being forecast to be closer to this terminal. Another round of storms is expected to come out of Colorado late tonight and could be approaching GKC and LBL around 06Z Tuesday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.