textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Overcast skies across much of the area will keep temperatures below normal for most today with highs in the low to mid 80s.

- Severe thunderstorms appear probable tomorrow afternoon into the evening and overnight periods. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary threats.

- Sunday through the end of the period will feature below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation, with Wednesday and/or Thursday carrying the highest chance for precipitation.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Early afternoon water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal a weak ridge extends from the southern plains northwestward through the Intermountain West, resulting in west- northwest flow atop the central plains. Guidance indicates this ridge will shift eastward today and dampen as a trough begins to move ashore above the west coast. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is underway in CO, supporting southeasterly winds across southwest KS that is helping to maintain overcast skies for roughly the western 2/3rds of our area. Visible satellite trends show no signs of this cloud deck thinning given the negligible subsidence aloft, which will keep those areas cooler this afternoon with temperatures peaking in the low 80s. Farther east where skies are clear, highs will reach the mid/upper 80s. Later this afternoon, some HREF members indicate thunderstorms may wander into our northern zones near I-70. At least modest MLCAPE and deep-layer shear will support a marginal severe threat with this activity, although confidence is low. Overnight, light southeast winds and mostly cloudy skies will promote Saturday morning lows in the 60s.

Daytime Saturday, short range ensembles agree the upper level ridge will flatten out completely as a low-amplitude shortwave trough rapidly advances eastward towards the central Rockies. In response, a lee cyclone in eastern CO will deepen to ~990-mb, fostering moderate southeast winds in the 15-25 mph range gusting to 35 mph. Slightly downsloping 850-mb winds will push 850-mb temperatures upward by 5-7 degrees C, which will translate to a noticeable rise in surface temperatures Saturday afternoon with highs in the mid-80s east to the mid/upper 90s west.

Focus then shifts to the probability of severe thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. As the aforementioned surface low in eastern CO strengthens, southeasterly winds will advect mid-60s dewpoints into southwest KS and southeast CO, allowing a dryline to sharpen just west of the KS/CO border. As forcing for ascent increases ahead of the approaching trough, all HREF members depict thunderstorm initiation in eastern CO along the dryline by 20-21Z. Initial storm mode will be supercells within an environment characterized by 2000-2500 J/Kg of MLCAPE and 30-35 kts of deep-layer shear, indicating the primary threat will be large to very large hail. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out, however large dewpoint depressions and weak low-level shear should preclude this threat. That said, it is unclear whether supercellular storm mode will persist long enough for convection to reach the KS/CO border as all HREF members show upscale growth as activity propagates eastward. Current thinking is thunderstorms will be in the process of congealing into an MCS as they enter our western zones, suggesting the primary threat will transition from large/very large hail west of KS-25 to damaging wind gusts along and east of KS-25. Once this transition is complete, the severe MCS will roll east across southwest KS through the evening and overnight period, finally exiting stage right by sunrise Sunday morning.

Sunday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles agree the nearly zonal flow atop the CONUS will gradually amplify as a ridge builds west of the Rockies and a trough to the east. As this synoptic evolution unfolds, ensembles imply multiple rounds of precipitation/cold fropas will keep afternoon temperatures well below normal, mainly in the low/mid 80s. ENS and GEFS meteograms continue to highlight Wednesday/Thursday as the most likely time frame for precipitation, with NBM pops peaking in the likely category (55-74%).

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Surface observations across southwest KS indicate earlier MVFR stratus has lifted into low-end VFR. Latest CONShort suggests VFR will continue through at least 06Z, followed by MVFR stratus building southward into HYS and perhaps DDC and GCK as well. After sunrise tomorrow, solar insolation should permit a return to VFR at all terminals by the end of the period. Otherwise, current modest south-southeast winds in the 15-20 kt range will weaken to light and variable overnight, and then begin to re-intensify after 15Z Saturday back into the 15-20 kt range.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.