textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Low clouds and fog possible this morning; clearing by late morning

- Isolated severe risk today and Saturday

- Hotter temperatures by this weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Weak upper level low and elongated weak surface low continues to slowly track northeastward, pulling away from the forecast area. With ample low-level moisture from recent rains and light winds this morning, some areas of low level stratus and fog could develop, leading to some areas of reduced visibilities. While there may be some localized areas of thicker fog, widespread dense fog is not anticipated. NBM probabilities of 1 mile or less is only around 15-20%. Any fog and low stratus will gradually erode into the mid to later morning hours.

Focus will shift to the current closed low over central California and the enhanced 500 mb flow from the Pacific subtropics. These features will progress eastward throughout the morning and emerge into the central Plains by this afternoon, though flow is expected to be much more diffuse as it moves eastward. The tropical airmass that has been in place will be replaced by a much drier low-level airmass. This will sharpen the moisture gradient across western Kansas. While forcing will not be all too strong, some subtle height falls could lead to storm initiation along and ahead of a dryline. Overall kinematic profile will be lacking for more organized convective potential, but CAM depicted 30-40 knots of bulk shear would be enough for multicell clusters, and perhaps a supercell structure or two later this afternoon and evening. There is no lack in the thermodynamic profile however, as modeled MLCAPEs of 2500-3000 J/kg will be plenty to support and sustain any convection that does happen to develop. With a weakly veered environment and strong instability, some isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible. The greatest chance (20-50%) for storms will be east of Route 283 into central Kansas.

Very similar idea is expected for Saturday with a fairly significant gradient of moisture from west to east across Kansas. Very weak shear, but strong instability will be in place. However, the dryline may push farther east throughout the day, leading to a much smaller window for storms in our forecast area. Latest NBM guidance only has slight POPs (20% or less) for our far eastern counties Saturday afternoon and evening. Nevertheless, still bears watching. Again, any storms will be capable of a large hail and a damaging wind risk.

Temperatures will gradually climb back into the 90s for much of the forecast area into this weekend. NBM MaxT probs for greater than 90 degrees for both Saturday and Sunday is 50-80% and 60-90% respectively. The greatest chance (40-70%) for greater than 95 degrees will be in south-central Kansas along the KS/OK border.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 522 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibilities are present across the TAF sites early this morning with clearing expected from south to north later this morning. An exception to this will be at the HYS terminal where low clouds may hang around until this afternoon. Winds will be light and variable this morning increasing in speed this afternoon from a southelry direction.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.