textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- A warm up Sunday will push highs mostly into the 80s for the next week

- A marginal and conditional severe weather risk Sunday near Hays

- Nearly every day this week has some chances for precipitation depicted by ensembles

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1111 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

The synoptic pattern aloft continues to be dominated aloft by a deep trough as it it has traversed to the north-central portion of the CONUS. Surface high pressure resides over SW Kansas and inhibited storms in Colorado and panhandles from reaching into Kansas. It is expected to be a quiet night weather-wise; although some patchy fog may develop in fog-prone areas with saturated relative humidities and light winds.

Sunday will lead off a much warmer stretch for SW Kansas with highs in the 80s. In the last day, CAM trends have sharply upticked in precipitation chances especially around Hays. SPC now has them in a marginal risk, even though storm chances remain primarily conditional. Ensembles place a 15-35% for most areas around an axis stretching from Hays to Elkhart. Modeled soundings host around 1000 J/kg CAPE values and shear values of around 30-40 KTs. CAMs disagree wildly on weather the storms will form in a more linear regime or if it will be only a few isolated cells up near Hays. Regardless without storms training over a singular area, accumulations are forecast to be minimal and only a very marginal severe threat.

They rest of the weeks is forecast to maintain highs in the 80s with varying chances for precipitation. Even Monday that was originally progged as bone dry, now holds a slim (10-30%) chance via ensembles for showers very late Monday night. This will only increase into the middle of the week with more chances from ensembles: 30-60% in far SW Kansas Tuesday night, widespread chances (20-50%) Wednesday and Thursday, and continued intermittent showers Friday and Saturday. Most of this precipitation comes from a couple of mid-level shortwave systems that either seem to be poorly resolved or substantial disagreement between ensemble members. Regardless, attention will need to be paid on when and where will see precipitation.

Outside of the precipitation, the forecast period will be relatively calm. Relative humidity minimums are forecasted above 20% hampering most fire weather concerns. Temperatures will hold mostly steady in the 80s with the best opportunity to diverge from this being on Monday where highs are forecast to breach 90 degrees across parts of SW Kansas especially near the Oklahoma border.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Primarily south winds are forecast through the TAF period at 5-15 KTs. The only aviation concern would be storms near the end of the TAF period especially at HYS. However with ensemble chances below 30%, they are excluded from the TAFs. Future forecasts will have a better grasp on the storm chances and result in better aviation guidance.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.