textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Another warm day for much of southwest Kansas as NBM probabilities of greater than 80 degree highs are at 80-100% south of the K-96 corridor

- Storm chances and severe weather threat for tonight will be confined to mainly areas along and east of an Ashland to St. John line

- Increasing probability of a hard freeze next Monday morning (March 16th)

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1206 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Late night synopsis shows a slow moving cut off low off the coast of northwest Mexico with southwest flow ahead of it spreading into the central plains. Embedded in the southwest flow is a passing 700 mb shortwave in eastern Colorado. This wave has led to a trough and 1000 mb surface low in eastern Colorado Elsewhere the polar jet is located in the northern CONUS with a developing trough in the northern Rockies.

Today the two features to monitor will be the progression of the shortwave and subsequent surface low in western Kansas and the cutoff low entering into the southern plains. Short term models show the progression of the low into northeast Kansas by afternoon which will lead to mainly westerly winds in the boundary layer. Temperatures for all but the far north should easily reach 80 degrees as NBM probability of 80 degrees or higher is at 80-100% south of K-96. North of K-96 there will be more uncertainty as the surface low in northeast Kansas will bring a cold front that will make it towards Hays by late morning. Short term models have struggled with temperatures in these areas but the greatest probability is highs in the lower to mid 70s. With the west winds through the day this should keep dew points below 50 degrees and make thunderstorm development difficult initially.

Tonight a second surface low develops in the northeast section of the Texas panhandle and the warm front moves to the Kansas-Oklahoma border. Moisture starts to move into south central Kansas by early evening and an upper level shortwave should provide enough lift for parcels to overcome the LFC. Thunderstorm and severe weather probabilities have diminished to mainly areas south and east of Dodge City as there is a 20-30% chances of storms around the Pratt- Medicine Lodge area between 7-10 pm. Skew t's are showing decent 0- 6 km bulk shear values of 45-55 kts however hodographs have noticeable backing in the mid levels which would mitigate production of larger hail stones. At this point if storms develop hail up to golfball size and wind gusts to 60 mph would be the main threats. Storms should exit quickly into central Kansas after 10 pm.

Wednesday with the exiting system a strong cold front will move across western Kansas in the early morning. Strong post frontal pressure gradient will lead to increasing winds out of the north to 20-30 mph with wind gusts 40+.

Long term ensembles show a large trough moving into the central plains on Sunday with a strong cold front bringing in an arctic air mass across much of the central and eastern CONUS. Confidence is increasing for a hard freeze Monday morning. ENS and GEFS output is showing lows in the 20s with some of the members showing teens for lows and NBM probabilities of lows less than 28 degrees is already at 70-85% across southwest Kansas.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 536 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

VFR conditions will prevail today with increasing high to mid level clouds this evening. Winds will star tout from a westerly direction this morning, shifting to a southelry direction this afternoon. A cold front will move through over night shifting winds to the north with an increase in speed.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.