textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread beneficial rain Today. 70-90% chance for rainfall totals to be >0.25" along and north of a Ness City to Larned to Stafford line.

- Accumulating snow developing after midnight and continuing through the day on Friday. Highest snowfall totals currently expected west of a Liberal to Sublette line. - Lows in the teens early Saturday morning with wind chills in the single digits.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Two separate weather systems will impact southwest Kansas over the next few days. The First will bring widespread rain today and the second will bring a chance for snow on Friday. Today, a southern branch upper level shortwave trough, located near west Texas at midnight, will lift northeast into the Central Plains. Ahead of this system moisture and improving lift will develop and result in a period of widespread accumulating rainfall early today as this system passes. Once this system passes a brief break in the precipitation chances will occur but by Friday morning, our second upper level storm system will take aim at southwest Kansas. This upper level trough is forecast to amplify over the Great Plains, driving a cold front through southwest Kansas. This system will not only bring cold air into southwest Kansas but will also produce some accumulating snowfall.

Early this morning the southern branch upper wave continues to verify well on short term models and was spreading widespread light rain into southwest Kansas early this morning based on latest radar trends, just as the models suggested. This rain is expected to continue until the upper wave fully passes later this Thursday afternoon. Also, would not be surprised if a few locations southeast of Dodge hear a few rumbles of thunder due to mid-level instability ahead of the wave early in the day.

While most areas today will receive between 0.1 and 0.2" of rainfall (>60% chance)...the highest probability (70-90%) for rainfall totals to exceed 0.25 inches will be north and northeast of Dodge City, specifically along and north of a Ness City to Larned to Stafford line. This area will benefit from better moisture return and warm air advection ahead of the approaching southern branch upper wave. Areas of fog are also likely, especially along the I-70 corridor, accompanying the higher rain potential.

Late tonight and Friday, winter weather returns to southwest Kansas. The cold front that will cross southwest Kansas late today will usher in colder air into the region tonight as our main upper level trough approaches. By the time the next round of precipitation develops, the atmosphere will be cold enough for only snow. This snow is expected to initially develop across extreme southwest Kansas near the Colorado border after midnight due to the post frontal upslope flow north of a deepening surface low/cold front that will be occurring across northeast New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle as a southern branch upper trough approaches the Texas panhandle. This, combined with the difluent flow north of the approaching New Mexico upper trough will favor a prolonged period of light snow here tonight before spreading east into southwest Kansas late tonight/early Friday as the northern branch upper trough exits the Rockies and moves out into the Plains. Similar to previous runs, the latest short term models continue to highlight an area of enhanced 750-600 mb frontogenesis west of the Dodge City area during the day on Friday as difluent flow aloft improves as the upper level trough exits the Rockies. All models also tend to agree that this enhanced forcing is what will be needed for southwest Kansas to see snowfall amounts approaching or exceeding 2 inches in snowfall amounts. What is different this morning is that the short term models now appear to be trending to a farther south solution compared to previous runs. If this does verify, then this enhanced forcing mentioned above will be focused farther south and be mainly near the Oklahoma border. If this does occur, then the higher snowfall amounts will also be closer to the Oklahoma border with lower amounts occurring further north. This shift in location will need to be monitored closely, and currently the latest WPC guidance also appears to favor this further south solution with its snowfall forecast. Will therefore stay close to what WPC has for snowfall amounts but would not be surprised to see slightly higher snowfall amounts being possible from this event along the Oklahoma border on Friday west of liberal and lower amounts farther north, especially north of the Arkansas River.

Currently given the southern trend from the short term models, the most likely solution for snowfall amounts across southwest Kansas on Friday will generally range from 0.5 to 1.5 inches. Higher amounts are likely across extreme southwest Kansas near the Oklahoma border, especially west of Liberal, where there is a 60-80% chance for snowfall totals greater than 2 inches, while amounts may be lower north of Garden City and Dodge City.

Those traveling or having outdoor plans on Friday in extreme southwest Kansas, particularly west of Liberal and near the Oklahoma border, should prepare for a moderate impact event (2+ inches of snow). Travelers west of Liberal and near the Oklahoma border in extreme southwest Kansas should monitor this closely and be prepared to make alternate plans if needed.

Looking ahead for the weekend into early next week. The upper level trough will cross the Central Plains Friday night. Snow chances will end and skies will begin to clear from west to east as this upper trough exits western Kansas and a cold dome of high pressure begins to build into the area from the north. Clear skies, light winds and the expected new snow will set the stage for some cold lows early Saturday morning. Lows will be in the teens and wind chills in the single digits will be possible. These cold, or should we say more seasonal, temperatures will continue through the weekend as the surface highs crosses the Central Plains. A gradual warmup begins early next week as the cold dome of high pressure moves east towards the Ohio Valley.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 500 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Light rain will increase in coverage across southwest Kansas this morning as VFR ceilings gradually lowers over the next 2-4 hours. Both BUFR and LAMP guidance indicated ceilings will decrease to between 1000 and 2000ft AGL by 15z. A cold front is expected to cross southwest Kansas between 15z and 18z today and as this boundary passes the winds will shift to the northwest and increase into the 20 to 25 knot range. Following the cold frontal passage, the rain will begin to taper off and a gradual improvement in ceilings is anticipated with a return to VFR conditions developing between 21z today and 00z Friday. The gusty northwest winds will subside after 00z Friday, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.