textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Much cooler temperatures today, ranging from the low 30s east to the low 50s west.

- Light snow flurries are possible Friday, but little to no accumulation is expected.

- Dangerously cold wind chills in the -5 to -15 range are likely Saturday morning, especially east of US-83.

- Generally quiet daytime Saturday through the long term, with the only chance for precipitation existing on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Early morning water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal broad longwave troughing is in place from the spine of the Rockies through the east coast, with weak ridging over the western CONUS. Additionally, a weak shortwave trough was noted over central CO, digging southeast with time. At the surface, a weak surface low was centered near Sublette ahead of the aforementioned shortwave, and is progged to drift southeast through today, resulting in winds flipping northerly in its wake. Cold advection on the back of these winds, exacerbated by morning cloud cover mainly east of US-83, will yield a much cooler afternoon, with highs ranging from the low 30s from Hays to Pratt to the low 50s near the KS/CO border. Thursday night, light and variable winds will combine with mostly clear skies to support strong radiational cooling, driving Friday morning lows into the teens east of US-283 and the low 20s to the west.

Daytime Friday, short range ensembles agree the synoptic pattern will amplify as the western ridge builds and inches eastward. Strong surface high pressure will advance equatorward from the northern plains into the central/southern plains, fostering northeasterly upslope flow across southwest KS. This along with upper level divergence within the left exit region of a 300-mb jet streak will engender light snow flurries favoring areas east of US-83 and north of US-50. That said, snow totals will be minimal at best as NBM probability of snow greater than or equal to 0.5" is only in the 20-30% range. Otherwise, another day with a wide range in afternoon temperatures is forecast, with highs in the upper 20s/low 30s east to the low 50s along the KS/CO border. Friday night, another round of strong radiational cooling will send temperatures plummeting into the single digits and below zero for much of our area east of US-83, along with wind chills in the -5 to -15 degree range. While these apparent temperatures will be well outside of headline criteria, extra caution should be taken Saturday morning to limit outside exposure.

Saturday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles agree the ridge over the western CONUS will continue to build through the weekend before quickly dampening early next work week and redeveloping farther west. The net result of this synoptic evolution will be continued below normal temperatures on Saturday followed by a significant warm-up Sunday/Monday and then a gradual cooling trend through the end of the forecast period. Precipitation chances will be near zero as well, save for Tuesday afternoon/evening as NBM probability of QPF greater than or equal to 0.01" rise into the 30-50% range ahead of a digging upper level shortwave impulse. However, QPF probabilities rapidly decline with increasing threshold, so do not expect much.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1135 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

VFR flying conditions prevail across all terminals at the beginning of this TAF cycle, however high resolution guidance suggests fog development will occur in the next few hours and persist well into the morning hours, bringing IFR or lower cigs and vis primarily to HYS and DDC, although impacts to GCK and LBL cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, current light and variable winds will increase out of the north into the 15-20 kt range gusting to 25-30 kts during the 09-21Z time frame, followed by rapid weakening back to light and variable through the end of the period.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.