textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong southwest winds today sustained in the 15-25 mph range gusting to 35-40 mph.

- Strong cold front early tomorrow will knock temperatures down to near normal for the next several days.

- Precipitation chances still exist Friday night/early Saturday associated with a weak cold front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1135 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Late morning water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal broad longwave troughing is in place over the western CONUS, with a few shortwave troughs embedded within the flow over the central Rockies and Great Basin. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is underway across eastern CO and adjacent areas in response to the upstream trough. As the pressure gradient tightens throughout the day over the central plains, strong southwesterly winds will materialize, although much weaker than yesterday, sustained in the 15-25 mph range gusting to 35-40 mph. These strong downsloping winds along with mostly clear skies will foster unseasonably warm temperatures today with afternoon highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. Overnight, winds will stay elevated as the surface low passes to our north, allowing Thursday morning temperatures to stay in the 30s to low 40s.

Thursday morning, short range guidance indicates a strong cold front will pass through southwest KS behind the surface low, with strong northwesterly winds in its wake drawing much cooler air into the central plains. As a result, temperatures tomorrow will be much closer to normal with afternoon highs in the mid 40s near I-70 to the low/mid 50s near the KS/OK border. Unfortunately, this will be a dry cold front as NBM probability of QPF greater than 0.01" is less than 15% for all zones.

Friday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles agree broad upper level troughing will gradually be replaced by ridging over the western CONUS by early Sunday. Another cold frontal passage Friday night/early Saturday will keep temperatures near normal through much of the long term, but the approaching ridge will induce a warming trend starting early next work week. Precipitation chances have dipped a bit compared to this time yesterday, but probability of QPF greater than 0.01" is still in the 30-50% range for roughly the northern half of our CWA associated with the aforementioned cold front Friday night/early Saturday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1045 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Current light southerly winds will increase out of the southwest in the next hour or two into the 15-20 kt range gusting to 25-30 kts, and continue through 00-01Z. Overnight, winds will weaken to aoa 12 kts as they veer to the west, and then increase after 08-09Z back into the 15-20 kt range gusting to 25-30 kts through the end of the period.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ this evening for KSZ043>045-061>064-074>080-084>089.