textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer Temperatures Expected Early Next Week. Highs in the low 50s to mid 60s on Monday will warm into the 70s on Tuesday.

- Elevated Fire Weather Risk Monday along the Oklahoma border. Several hours of near critical fire weather conditions possible late day west of a Sublette to Meade line.

- Brief return to more seasonal temperatures mid week with a 20 to 50% chance for light rain. Despite this expected cool down, high temperatures are still forecast to be about 10 degrees above the seasonal normals.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1158 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

18Z synopsis shows a large trough associated with a nor`easter through the eastern CONUS and a building ridge in the western CONUS leading to northwest flow over Kansas. A departing surface high to the east and lee side trough along the front range of the Rockies is leading to strong south to southwesterly winds. These winds are ushering out the cold air mass we had this weekend and will begin the trend of warmer temperatures for the week.

Of note this February has been one of the warmest on record for southwest Kansas as average high temperatures have ranged from the upper 50s to mid 60s which is 11-16 degrees warmer than normal. This trend will continue for much of this week as we should stay more under the influence of ridge with periodic cold fronts only dropping us back into the upper 50s to lower 60s. For Tuesday we should have less wind as the upper level shortwave and surface low will be located in southwest Kansas and the pressure gradient will be less. Periodic mid to high level clouds will probably keep us from reaching into widespread upper 70s to lower 80s territory but with 850 mb temperatures at 15-19 (C) we should see highs in the mid 70s for much of southwest Kansas.

Mid range models show our first cold frontal passage of the week coming in Wednesday night with an upper level trough moving through the northern plains and a 700 mb shortwave moving through central Kansas. ENS and GEFS QPF outputs are only a few hundredths with the best chance of light rain mainly between Dodge City and Hays. NBM probabilities of greater than 0.1 inch are only at 10-20% so this will be a minor rain event.

The long term ensemble weather pattern for the weekend shows another large trough in the northern plains which will bring a cold front into western Kansas for Saturday. With the lack of surface moisture we have no POPs at this point. Temperatures should be much more seasonable for February standards this weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1119 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period. With northwest flow in the mid levels and modest moisture we should see periodic mid to high level clouds through Tuesday afternoon. With a departing surface high and strengthening lee side trough...afternoon wind speeds will be 12-22 kts with gusts around 30 kts. Strongest winds will be for DDC, GCK, and LBL terminals. After 00Z we should see winds diminish a bit to 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts through 12Z Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1101 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

For Monday, the fire weather environment will be focused around a deepening surface trough across eastern Colorado, resulting in a strengthening pressure gradient across western Kansas. Ongoing dry conditions, combined with temperatures rebounding well into the 60s across far southwest Kansas will result in afternoon humidity values to fall back into the 10 to 15 percent range west of Highway 83. This area where the lower humidity values will occur will also be located where the weaker afternoon south winds are expected (10-20mph), given that its locations are closer to the easterly Colorado surface boundary on Monday afternoon. Further east, stronger south winds(15 to 25mph) will occur but this is where afternoon humidity values will be 20% or higher. Each of these areas will produce elevated fire weather conditions, mainly along the Oklahoma border Monday afternoon. There will be a few hours between 1pm and 6pm where slightly stronger winds will overlap the low humidity values bottoming out near 15% which may result in near critical fire weather conditions. The area where this will be most favorable of a couple of hours will be west of a Sublette to Meade line.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.