textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures return to southwest KS today and tomorrow with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

- Confidence continues to increase in widespread rainfall across southwest KS Tuesday and Wednesday, with the highest QPF totals favoring our northwest zones.

- Warm and dry conditions return Thursday and beyond.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1130 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Early morning water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal deep longwave troughing east of the Rockies with weakening ridging upstream over the Great Basin. At the surface, weak high pressure has moved into the southern plains which will support southwesterly winds materializing over southwest KS. Daytime Sunday, short range guidance indicates the central plains will remain under the influence of the western upper ridge, and subsidence ahead of this feature will combine with downsloping southwesterly winds in the 10-20 mph range to result in a noticeable increase in temperatures this afternoon as highs spike into the mid to upper 80s. Tonight will be quiet as light winds and partly cloudy skies permit overnight lows dropping into the low 40s northwest to the mid 50s southeast.

On Monday, short range ensembles agree the upper level ridge west of the Rockies will be nearly entirely flattened as a strong cut-off low begins to impinge on the west coast. Still, the central plains will see little change in the sensible weather from the previous day as westerly surface winds maintain above normal temperatures with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Tuesday and Wednesday, medium range ensembles agree the aforementioned cut-off low will begin to pick up eastward momentum daytime Tuesday, and merge with the larger longwave trough east of the Rockies by Wednesday morning. As this feature approaches, a strong cold front is expected to move through the central plains late Monday/early Tuesday morning, bringing much cooler air equatorward with afternoon temperatures in the 50s and 60s on Tuesday. This cooler air will also be accompanied by a robust opportunity for precipitation, especially early Wednesday as the core of the upper low ejects onto the central plains. NBM pops are in the definite category (75-100%) for roughly the northwestern half of our CWA, with likely pops (55-74%) extending southeast all the way into Barber County. Ensemble QPF means place the highest QPF totals of 0.75-1"+ along and adjacent to a Syracuse to Hays line, decreasing with southeast extent to 0.2-0.4" around Medicine Lodge. Precipitation should rapidly erode from west to east Wednesday afternoon and evening as DNVA in the wake of the upper wave filters into the area. Thursday and beyond, ensembles suggest upper level ridging will rebuild over the western CONUS, allowing the warm and dry conditions to return to southwest KS.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1152 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period. Winds will be breezy this afternoon for GCK, DDC, and LBL at 15-20 kts sustained with gusts up to 30 kts. Winds should diminish quickly after 01Z and stay 12 kts or less through 18Z Monday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.