textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Weakening upper level ridge will support afternoon highs today ranging from the low 90s north to the upper 90s/near 100 south.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible both Thursday and Friday evening, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat.

- Strong upper level ridge will build over the weekend into next week, resulting in afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and little to no precipitation chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1210 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Early morning radar observations show scattered showers and thunderstorms percolating across western KS ahead of a weak upper level impulse over the central Rockies. 00Z CAM suite suggests this activity will continue to trend down over the next few hours, and the remainder of the overnight period will be quiet with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Daytime Thursday, modest upper level zonal flow over the northern plains will expand southward into the central plains as a ridge over the far southwestern CONUS weakens and a weak disturbance shifts eastward from the Intermountain West into the central Rockies. Subtle height falls will help shave a few degrees off afternoon temperatures along and north of US-50, where highs will be in the low to mid 90s, but areas near and adjacent to the KS/OK border will still reach the upper 90s/low 100s.

Focus then shifts to the probability of severe thunderstorms late Thursday afternoon through the evening. All HREF members agree scattered thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain in eastern CO as early as 17Z ahead of the aforementioned weak upper level impulse. Given 500-mb flow around 20 kts, convection will take its sweet time propagating eastward, but will encounter increasingly better moisture with eastward extent amidst 30-35 kts of deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates. Amalgamation into a mesoscale convective system (MCS) appears the most likely scenario by the time this activity reaches the KS/CO border, which will favor a primarily severe wind gust threat as the thunderstorm complex rolls across southwest KS through the evening and into the overnight period. Some large hail threat cannot be ruled out near the KS/CO border if any semi-discrete cells can be maintained prior to ultimate upscale growth.

Daytime Friday, short range ensembles agree the upper level pattern will begin to amplify as a ridge begins to build atop the High Plains. Typically, this would result in an uptick in afternoon temperatures for southwest KS, however convective outflow from the previous night's MCS and only slight height rises support afternoon highs ranging from the mid/upper 80s near I-70 to the mid 90s along the KS/OK border. Another round of severe thunderstorms appears possible Friday evening as CAMs once again show an MCS on our doorstep in far eastern CO at 00Z, but increasing subsidence over our area may limit convective coverage/maintenance, so confidence is limited.

Saturday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles indicate the upper level ridge will continue to build, eventually encompassing nearly the entire CONUS with its core centered over the northern plains. This ridge positioning will actually keep the hottest temperatures displaced from southwest KS, allowing afternoon highs to hold in the low to mid 90s into mid-next week. However, the trade off will be little to no precipitation chances during this period as NBM pops are quiet (<15%) through next Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1210 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

VFR flying conditions will prevail across all terminals for the majority of this TAF cycle, with light and variable winds. Late in the period, high-resolution guidance are in agreement a thunderstorm complex will roll from west to east across southwest KS. Low confidence in timing of terminal impacts precluded inclusion in the TAFs, but TSRA will likely bring IFR/LIFR conditions to all terminals during the 02-06Z time frame.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.