textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rain will slowly spread west to east across southwest Kansas through Monday, with heavier amounts (0.5 to 1.5 inch) west of US 283, and lesser amounts (less than 0.5 inch) east of US 283. Rain will be spread out enough to reduce the risk of flooding, and thunder will be limited.

- Dry weather returns Tuesday through Thursday, with much above normal morning and afternoon temperatures.

- No cold air intrusions are expected through the next week, with high confidence of no freezes through the end of October.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Weakening, elongated closed midlevel cyclone was centered over Utah and Arizona at midday, per water vapor satellite imagery. Radar imagery at noon depicted widespread rain moving north across the western half of SW KS. Moist conveyor belt ahead of the stationary Rockies trough is well established, with radar imagery from Amarillo showing rain stacked up across the Texas panhandle moving north. Surface analysis depicted a very obvious stationary frontal boundary, draped southeast of DDC across the southeast CWA. The moist conveyor belt overrunning this surface boundary will enhance rainfall generation through tonight, as the front is forced back northward, and winds return to southerly. Lightning detection depicted some strikes near Amarillo at midday, but instability was absent over SW KS. Instability will remain weak through Monday night, with forecast CAPE < 500 J/kg through the period. Thunder from the NBM generated grids was accepted, but should be very limited. Storm total QPF grids through Monday continue to show a strong gradient in forecast rainfall amounts, from near zero far eastern zones, ranging to 1-2 inches west of US 283.

Trough over the Rockies Sunday will eject northeast into the central Plains 7 pm Monday. At least scattered rain showers will persist through Monday as trailing shortwaves and lingering lift keep some showers going. Lingering cloud cover will be significant Monday, and NBM afternoon temperatures in the lower 70s are expected to be several degrees too warm. 12z MOS guidance in the 60s looks more realistic, despite winds acquiring some SWly downslope component in the afternoon.

Strong subsidence will finally end all shower activity and clear the sky Tuesday. A warming trend well through the 70s to near 80 is expected Wednesday, and with elevated SWly downslope and full sunshine, NBM may not be warm enough. A mild late October will continue, with no cold air intrusions noted, with high confidence both sunrise and afternoon temperatures will be well above normal, with no freezes, through Halloween. Expect SW KS to remain dry Wednesday and Thursday, however medium range models, especially the 12z GFS and its ensemble members, show a strong subtropical moisture push northward out of West Texas on Friday. With similar trends from ECMWF ensembles, NBM pops in the likely to definite category are already in place Friday afternoon/evening, favoring the southeast counties.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1052 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Radar imagery at 1545z Sun depicted rain showers expanding northward near LBL/GCK, with MVFR stratus at LBL/GCK. Through 00z Mon, widespread rain, moderate to heavy at times, will spread across SW KS, degrading flight categories to at least MVFR, if not IFR at times. Scattered to numerous rain showers will persist through 12z Mon, with consensus of short term models suggesting VFR midlevel clouds will prevail. Lower flight categories to MVFR/IFR are most likely at LBL/GCK where the heaviest rain is expected. Light winds will prevail through this TAF period.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.