textproduct: Dodge City
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and storms for the first half of today
- Hot and dry next week
- Upper 90s likely Thursday
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026
An upper level trof will move across the state today. This feature will spark of scattered showers and thunderstorms for the first half of today. The disturbance will start to clear the area by the afternoon. As a result, expect shower activity to diminish as the day continues. Highs today will be fairly cool with values peaking in the 60s. A northeast wind of 8 to 18 mph will prevail through much of the day. Lows tonight will be chilly with values bottoming out in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
500 hPa heights start to increase across the greater region Monday onward. In fact, shortwave ridging is expected to amplify across Kansas Wednesday and Thursday. This dry pattern is both supported by both the GEFS and the ENS. The net result is a dry and very warm to very hot forecast. The hottest of highs is expected Thursday, where upper 90s will be likely. Otherwise we will start out with 70s and 80s Monday and end up in the 90s towards the end of the business week. Lows will trend warmer through the week as well with values starting out in the 30s and 40s Monday, but ending up in the 60s to around 70F towards the end of the week. Both ensemble models (GEFS/ENS) support the notion of a thunderstorm-free forecast.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 516 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to end west to east through late morning, potentially affecting the vicinity of all TAF sites with brief MVFR cigs/vsbys. Otherwise, primarily VFR conditions are likely to persist through much of the period. Northeasterly winds 10 to 20kt with gusts up to 25kt through mid/late morning are expected to subside generally after 15-17Z as surface high pressure moves east-southeast across northeast Colorado into western Kansas. Winds are then forecast to become light and variable this evening as the surface high shifts farther east into the Central Plains.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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