textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread and potentially severe storms across SW Kansas tonight

- More storms possible tomorrow night near the Oklahoma border with severe storm potential around Barber county

- A very pleasant and mild Sunday before a warm-up to triple digit highs Wednesday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 120 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

The synoptic pattern aloft is dominated by a deep trough in the far northern portion of the CONUS with more zonal flow overhead of the forecast area. This pattern stretches down to the surface with a weak surface high imposing over the CWA. This has helped keep winds light after a breezier yesterday. Highs today are forecast in the upper 80s/lower 90s with the focus being on the storm potential arriving tonight.

CAMs have been all over the place regarding the convection tonight in intensity, organization, and coverage. Modeled soundings from the NAM have CAPE values of around 2000 J/kg and deep layer shear at around 35 KTs. Most of the CAMs have storms initiating in eastern Colorado in the early evening and organizing into a MCS representing a more linear structure as it moves into Kansas around 7-8 PM. From there, tremendous divergence is present between runs. Some have it diving south quickly like the RRFS, some have aggressive expansions and encompassing most of the area like the HRRR, and the NAMNST keeps the storms unorganized and collapsing shortly after entering Kansas. As a result, predicting a precise pathing is quite difficult, with an aggregate being the current forecast. This being at least loosely organized convection quickly becoming linear and stretching east into the forecast until around Highways 83 and 283 by around 10 PM. By that point, it will begin to weak and dive southeastward towards the Oklahoma border. Initially if strong individual cells can form and mature early in the event, all hazards may be possible in far SW Kansas albeit of very marginal intensity. However, it is expected that the primarily threat will quickly become strong winds of up to 70 mph. It is very contingent on how strong the storms get and how well they can organize, but there seems to be just enough ingredients in the forecasted environment to support an organized system of that strength.

Saturday's convection forecast seems almost as messy after highs forecasted in the 90s and approaching 100 near the Oklahoma border. Models have a boundary stalling from roughly the Texas panhandle to south central Kansas. Exact placement of the boundary will determine how much precipitation SW Kansas sees. Current CAM runs have some storms detaching and moving north of the boundary and impacting the area, but that would also be in the significantly less favorable environment where they may be sub-severe and short-lived. With modest CAPE and shear values similar to Friday, the best chance for severe storms are ones that are able to stay in the move favorable air near Barber county. This may happen again around 7-8 PM although CAMs vary from around 5-9 PM for initiation. Again winds from the strongest storms are the primary threat with potentially severe winds.

Behind a cold front, Sunday will be particularly pleasant with highs only in the 70s. Ensembles hold around a 20-30% chance for benign precipitation in far SW Kansas on Sunday. The first half of the week will sharply warm back up with highs Wednesday forecast to be a return of triple digits before easing back down into the 90s towards the end of the week. Ensembles seem to hold onto a weak precipitation signal on Tuesday, but with the ample uncertainty it is merely something to be aware of. Wednesday with the hot temperatures has forecast relative humidities being very dry with single digit percents west of highway 83. Winds currently are forecast to remain below 20 mph and is expected to quell most of the fire weather risk although basic precautions may still be necessary.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1144 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Primarily VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period although forecasted convection may lower flight conditions. The period will begin with mostly clear skies with primarily a south wind at around 15 KTs is expected. Around 1-2Z, convection is forecast to develop and move in from Colorado. The next few hours until around 8-10Z, the convection may impact all sites with lowered ceilings and visibilities. CAMs have very little agreement with some like the HRRR showing an organized MCS while others like the NAMNST has more limited scattered convection. At no given hour does ensembles have a >30% chance for rain/thunder at a site except LBL at around 4Z. As a result, they are the only one with TS in the TAF although all or no sites may experience thunderstorms tonight. At the end of the period, a strong front is forecast to move through, and shift winds dramatically out of the north.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.