textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Ongoing rain event should start to wind down this evening

- Freeze potential for areas west of highway 83 and frost potential across the rest of the area for tonight

- Next opportunity for rain and storms is Saturday and mainly across central Kansas

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

18Z synopsis shows a departing 150 kt jet streak across the central and southern plains with a longwave trough entering into western Kansas. This is providing the lift to produce ongoing light rain showers mainly across areas west of highway 283 and north of highway 160. Rainfall reports so far have the highest totals around WaKeeney, Syracuse, Lakin, and Garden City where 0.5 to 0.75 inches have fallen. Cocorahs stations in northwest Hamilton county received 1-2 inches of snowfall this morning and most of the snow has since melted.

Tonight as the longwave trough moves into central Kansas we should see rapid NVA across western Kansas through the evening hours and any rainfall should be wrapping up before midnight. A 1022 surface high should build in which will clear out the clouds and keep the winds light. The main forecast challenge will be how cold it gets as newest model runs have the lower level temperatures a bit warmer which is probably reflection of west to southwest winds increasing bit towards 7am as the surface high's location will be in central Oklahoma. Highest probability of a freeze (temps at or below 28( is still for our far western zones (Syracuse to Elkhart) and possibly as far east as the highway 83 corridor. Between highway 83 and 183 a frost (temps around 32) is the highest probability and we have freeze warnings and frost advisories to reflect this.

Thursday the cooler air mass should be ushered out with west to southwest winds at the surface and a building ridge across the western CONUS. Highs should get back into the 70s.

The next opportunity for rain appears to be on Saturday as long range ensembles show a digging trough through the central and northern plains and another cold front moving through central and western Kansas. The best lift looks to be mainly across central and eastern Kansas and any storm development in southwest Kansas will be along the cold front Saturday evening. NBM probabilities of greater than 0.10 inch of rain are along and east of a Dighton to Medicine Lodge line and these probabilities are at 20-30%. Early next week looks quiet as a ridge build across the central and northern plains.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 508 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Light rain currently located over southwest Kansas at 21z today will weaken and move out of the area between 00z and 03z Thursday as an upper level trough moves across western Kansas. MVFR ceilings in the 2000-3000ft AGL range will also give way to VFR conditions as this upper wave passes. A surface high will cross southwest Kansas early tonight which will result in variable winds at less than 10 knots becoming primarily west northwest by 03z Thursday. These westerly winds will continue overnight and after daybreak increase to around 15 knots by 15z Thursday. These westerly winds overnight will limit the fog potential overnight but I would not be surprised to see some patchy fog reducing visibilities down to 1 mile at times where the lightest winds occur between 06z and 12z Thursday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ030-031- 044>046-064>066-077>081-087>090. Freeze Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Thursday for KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.