textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorm chances (50-70%) pick up across portions of southwest Kansas this evening.

- Seasonable temperatures likely through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

WV imagery indicates a southwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of a deepening upper level trough shifting slowly east into the Four Corners Region. Near the surface, a stalled frontal boundary extends from extreme southwest Kansas northeastward into north central Kansas.

Thunderstorm chances (50-70%) pick up this evening with the SREF indicating an embedded upper level shortwave lifting northeast through the Four Corners Region into the northern Colorado Rockies late this afternoon. In response, developing low pressure in vicinity of extreme southeast Colorado is projected to strengthen as it begins to lift slowly north, dislodging the aforementioned boundary in southwest Kansas northward. Meanwhile, prevailing southerlies ahead of a retreating dryline will help enhance moisture advection into central and much of southwest Kansas with surface dewpoints pushing well up into the 60s(F) to near 70F, providing ample instability with MUCAPE values upward of 2500 to 3000 J/kg. In conjunction with steepening mid-level lapse rates late this afternoon, H5 vort maxima ejecting northeast out of the Desert Southwest into the high plains of eastern Colorado will interact with the dryline, triggering thunderstorm development. Storms are then expected to spread northeast through extreme southwest Kansas this evening. This is supported by CAMs and the latest HREF showing a 50-70% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.25 of an inch in a southwest-northeast axis across extreme southwest Kansas with lesser amounts to the east into central Kansas by late evening. Similar conditions are forecast Wednesday with little change to the overall pattern expected.

Above normal temperatures are forecast for tonight once again as prevailing southerlies continue to reinforce a warmer air mass across the area, not to mention surface dewpoints holding in the 60s(F) to near 70F. Expect lows generally down into the 70s(F). Look for afternoon highs back up into the 90s(F) Wednesday with the HREF painting a widespread 80-90% probability of temperatures topping 90F. Similar temperatures are likely Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1120 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

VFR conditions will primarily prevail throughout the TAF period. Southerly winds overnight will continue before southwesterly sustained winds increase to 20-25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots through Wednesday afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected after 21z across far western Kansas, though any terminal impact would not be most likely after 00z. Thunderstorms could bring locally stronger winds. HYS and GCK have the greatest chances of these storms, while DDC and HYS have lower chances given weakening trend with eastward extent. Though if storms do happen to reach those locations, it would be after 02z Thursday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.