textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot August afternoons will continue for the next several days, with high temperatures well above late August normals.

- Rain chances are very limited through the weekend, but are expected to improve next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Midnight radar/satellite imagery depicted a long-lasting supercell thunderstorm/complex approaching I-70 in NW KS. The expectation has been for weakening with increasing convective inhibition, but the storm has shown persistence and will likely make it into the northern zones before dissipation. Most locations will remain dry overnight, with sunrise Friday temperatures primarily in the 60s.

The hot August afternoons will continue Friday, with models showing an additional +1-2C of warming at 850 mb over Thursday. As such, peak heating temperatures of 100-102 will be common. These are several degrees below record levels, but are about 10 degrees above late August normals. Across most of SW KS, the heat index will remain below 105 Friday afternoon. The exception will be across/near Barber county, where after coordination with ICT/OUN, issued another heat advisory for the peak heating hours Friday.

Strong upper high near 600 dm in strength will be centered over the Colorado Rockies Friday. Moderate NWly midlevel steering flow will be maintained over SW KS, with various weak shortwaves rotating clockwise through the northeast periphery of the anticyclone. CAM consensus including 00z ARW suggests convective initiation across Nebraska by 4 pm Friday, with subsequent upscale growth/MCS generation into northern Kansas through Friday evening. NBM has no pops > 14% in the grids for the northeast zones Friday night, but future forecasts may have to amend this, with areas along the I-70 corridor most at risk for strong thunderstorm outflow winds. Marginal 5% wind/hail probability from SPC favors the northeast zones, but much or all of this activity may remain northeast of the DDC CWA Friday night.

The synoptic pattern and steering flow is forecast to remain quite static through this weekend and next week, with the upper high essentially finding a home over New Mexico. The subsidence from the ridge will be in close enough proximity to keep afternoons plenty hot, with 90s expected every afternoon all zones. The good news, with the southwest displacement of the ridge, the extreme heat should be held in check, restricting any temperatures over 100. This synoptic evolution will also maintain a favorable NWly flow pattern over SW KS, with resultant periodic showers and thunderstorms, especially at night, as daily rounds of higher terrain convection track southeast toward SW KS. NBM and global models show the strongest signals for rainfall Tuesday night, Wednesday night, and Thursday night, with NBM pops already in the likely category (>60%) Tuesday evening. Some strong mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are plausible in the progged pattern next week, with areas of significant/beneficial, locally heavy rainfall possible.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1104 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through early Saturday. East-southeast winds 5 to 15kt with gusts up to 20kt are forecast to persist through much of the period as high pressure remains settled across the Central Plains.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ090.