textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- A sfc trof axis will bisect the FA today. Breezy and gusty southeasterly winds are expected east of the boundary. Light northerly winds will develop this evening as the trof axis moves slightly to the east.

- The mentioned boundary will shift southward Thursday morning. Moist upslope E to NE flow is expected north of the boundary with fog and stratus possible in the morning.

- Showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms will be possible Friday with more unsettled weather and stronger winds next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1122 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

A sfc trof axis will prevail across western Kansas today. Ahead of the boundary, breezy and gusty southwesterly winds are expected during the day. Highs today will range from the upper 70s across the northwest zones, to the lower 80s across south- central Kansas. The sfc boundary will move slightly eastward by early evening. Light northerly winds are expected in its wake by 00Z. This is particularly true for Garden City and Hays. Significant fire weather concerns are not expected even with the warm temperatures and breezy winds. Afternoon relative humidity levels are expected to remain in the moderate levels, which will prevent and major fire wx concerns.

Otherwise, the boundary will then shift southward late tonight into Thursday morning. North of the front, a good moist/NE to E upslope flow pattern looks to develop by Thursday morning. This is conceptually a good weather pattern that favors stratus and fog. Have gone ahead after looking at some CAMs and inserted fog mainly north of Highway 50 and 56. In addition, Thursday afternoon highs look to have big bust potential. In this particular weather pattern, the fog and stratus tends to linger longer than what many models indicate. Have collaborated with GLD and decreased highs in the north to account for the stratus and fog. If the fog and stratus is widespread, highs may struggle to reach above 60F in the north. This would be significantly cooler than what the current NBM indicates.

Attention then turns to Friday into Saturday morning. Moisture advection is expected Friday with PWATs increasing over 1.00". A mid level trof is expected to move across the region Friday evening. This will set the stage stage for rain showers. There might be a rumble of thunder, however, both lapse rates and instability look to be on the very marginal side. The best moisture profile looks to remain across the southeast counties. As such, the highest NBM pops are in this region. Current NBM highs Friday may be a few degrees too warm, with all the precipitation and clouds lingering. Precipitation amounts will vary, but the southeast counties may seem amounts of around 0.5" with amounts around 0.10 to 0.25" across the northwest zones.

Long range models and the ensemble counterparts are indicating for the potential for a much stronger weather system to move across the region Monday night into Tuesday morning. The ensembles are not in agreement though the the absolute strength of the mid level low and where the heaviest precipitation axis will be located. For example, the GEFS keeps the stronger system low farther south than compared with the ENS. This would shift the precipitation axis farther south than compared to the wetter ENS. This is something to watch. The bottom line is that moisture left over from a tropical weather system (Vance) may lead to unsettled weather next week. In addition, if the system is deep and closed, the resultant wind field may be much stronger than what we have seen as of late.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1122 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

A 40 to 50 kt LLJ will promote LLWS across the terminals through the morning hours. Otherwise, a sfc trof axis with bisect the terminals today. The strongest winds are expected east of the sfc trof. Breezy and gusty southwesterly winds 10-20 kt with gusts over 20 kt are expected by mid morning through early evening. The sfc trof axis will shift eastward slightly by the evening hours with winds becoming light N 5-10 kt in its wake. Even though this is outside of the TAF pd, low stratus and fog may develop during the Thursday morning hours. Something to watch and adjust the TAFs if needed in the future.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.