textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Redevelopment of showers and widely scattered thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening, favoring areas generally east and southeast of Dodge City.

- No severe weather is forecast tomorrow evening, however the strongest storm may produce some small hail in the 4 PM to 8 PM time frame, roughly.

- Warm temperatures, well above normal for late October, with highs Wednesday and Thursday mid to upper 70s most areas.

- Increasing rain chances Thursday Night into Friday, but best chances will be south across Oklahoma and Texas with the next storm system.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 118 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Western Kansas remains well within the warm/moist conveyor belt of the mid-latitude cyclone centered over Colorado. The upper low will lift north-northeast across western Nebraska on Monday. A storm track of this type will lead to negligible cold front push and will help keep the remnant warm/moist conveyor belt across southern Kansas. As tonight and early Monday morning's remnant showers move off to the northeast, the cold front will push fairly slowly south across western Kansas with southerly to southwesterly (yet still fairly moist) ahead of the front. Given the continued fairly high precipitable water values of 1.00 to 1.20 inches Monday late aftenoon and evening and surface-based CAPE values 500 to 1000 J/kg thanks to a little bit of insolation, additional showers and thunderstorms will likely develop generally south and east of a Liberal to Dodge City to Larned line. NBM POPs of 40-70% appear good with no adjustment necessary. One or two of the storms late afternoon/early evening may produce some small hail and/or gusty winds, but given the absence of large scale CAPE greater than 1000 J/kg, no severe hail or wind gusts are expected.

Moving ahead through the week, the theme will be warm temperatures as the overall large scale pattern will revert quickly back to lower heights in the west with higher mid level heights over the southeastern CONUS. Thus, persistent southwest flow throughout much of the troposphere will favor warm temperatures. Wednesday and Thursday will be the warmest days with highs both days well into the mid to perhaps upper 70s. Nighttime lows will be nowhere near freezing temperatures through at least next Sunday with lows most mornings in the upper 40s west to mid to upper 50s across south central Kansas.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1209 AM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Aviation weather will remain tricky to forecast through at least the late morning hours Monday as the last of rain showers move out of western Kansas. Heavier rain showers will actually raise the ceiling well above 3000 feet. However, outside of rain areas, will be watching HYS and GCK airports closely for intermittent IFR or even LIFR at times through early Monday morning. Aviation weather will improve by midday to early afternoon with VFR flight category becoming more widespread. Southeasterly winds will gradually become southwesterly through the morning hours.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.