textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures are forecast starting Thursday night.

- Rain is predicted for Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning, with highest amounts near .5" near the Oklahoma state line and lesser amounts to the north.

- Cloudy and cool daytime weather is expected into Monday and Tuesday; with moderate temperatures at night.

- There is no hard freeze in sight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1132 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

The cold front that passed yesterday was very weak and barely affected temperatures. The next shortwave trough heading southward out of Canada will bring cool surface high pressure with it, resulting in cooler temperatures for Friday and Saturday, with highs in the 50s both days. A hard freeze is not expected Friday morning given the moderate air mass and relatively high dewpoints; but some locations will drop below freezing. Even on Saturday as the high pressure system passes to the east, recirculated air from the southeasterly upslope flow around the high will keep temperatures on the cool side, especially given an increase in mid to high level cloud and afternoon rain. Rain will develop Saturday afternoon across southwest Kansas and then spread eastward overnight and into Sunday morning as an upper level storm system closes off and progresses across Oklahoma. Areas of central Kansas from Larned to Hays will receive less rain than areas along the Oklahoma state line. Isentropic lift and evaporative cooling Saturday night, along with continued upslope winds and low cloud on Sunday, will keep thick low cloud and cool temperatures in place. Any light rain will end during the morning Sunday, with temperatures starting out in the upper 30s to near 40 and rising only slightly into the lower to mid 40s in the afternoon. Some locations along I-70 could warm to 50 degrees if the sun comes out; but this is doubtful.

With regard to rain amounts over the weekend, the various ensemble means continue to show light amounts of .10 to .25" for locations northwest of Dodge City including Garden City, Scott City and Ness City, with even lesser amounts at WaKeeney, Hays and Rush Center. Higher amounts of up to .5" are depicted along the Oklahoma state line from Liberal to Coldwater. Given the lack of potential instability, either elevated or surface based, heavy rain totals of over 1" are highly unlikely anywhere across southwest Kansas. The grand ensemble indicates 10% chances or less of rains over 1" along the Oklahoma state line. The next upper level trough is advertised to progress across the central plains in a weakened state on Wednesday, with southwest Kansas in the warm sector. Having been suppressed into the tropics by the previous system, low level moisture will be lacking so that any convective instability should be minimal. Additionally, the advertised south winds will not be enough to scour out the low level cool air; and this will enhance the stability. In fact, low clouds could persist through Monday and Tuesday and maybe even through Wednesday morning (with perhaps some afternoon sunny breaks), and this would slow any warm up. Expect highs in the 50s at best, with breezy south winds making it feel cooler. Even on Wednesday as the upper level trough approaches the plains, temperatures may stay on the cool side given the moist advection into the cool air mass. Even though the days are expected to be chilly with temperatures below climatological averages, the nights will feature above climatological readings given probable cloud cover, persistent south winds and the resultant lack of radiational cooling.

Yet another storm system is advertised to develop across the western United States by late next week, with a low to mid level thermal gradient across the central plains. The location of this front is highly uncertain, as well as the evolution of the upper level trough. If the front is farther south then a continuation of a cool pattern (at least for daytime highs) would persist. However, if the front is north of Kansas, then downslope flow might propel daytime temperatures into the 60s. It is too early to tell if precipitation will accompany the late week storm system.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1142 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Surface high pressure will progress southward out of Canada today, allowing for a weak cold frontal passage. As a result, light north to northeast winds at less than 10 kts will develop by 14-17z. VFR conditions will persist with clear to mostly clear skies.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.