textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- A marginal risk of severe weather exists this evening. The primary hazard will be locally heavy rainfall which may result in ponding of water on roadways, especially in poor drainage and low lying areas. A few of the stronger storms may also be capable of producing isolated gusts of 50 to 60 mph and quarter sized hail.

- Storm chances will decrease late this week with only a 20-30% chance for storms possible over the weekend period.

- Warmer temperatures return to southwest Kansas this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1122 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Satellite and upper air analysis earlier this morning showed a upper level disturbance/weak MCV moving slowly northward through the Texas Panhandle toward a nearly stationary front in southwest Kansas. In addition to this a southeasterly low level flow was continuing to draw unseasonably high moisture into the area, with Precipitable water values >95% of normal. Given the humid air and a lack of any stable air layers to suppress development, showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage across southwest Kansas this after 2pm as the southern disturbance approaches the area.

The risk for severe weather appears to be decreasing due to weak vertical shear and modest lapse rates. However, forecast confidence is high enough yet to remove all possibility given that the upper wave/weak MCV crossing southwest Kansas early tonight could locally enhance wind shear. If this occurs then it may provide enough support for a few isolated storms to produce large hail and damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph.

The main weather hazard early tonight may end up being periods of locally heavy rainfall and possible water issues. High precipitable water values, little/no cap and slow moving thunderstorms supports this chance that locally heavy rainfall from these storms overnight. Also based on location of where the axis of higher PWATs and 925-850mb transport vectors through early tonight the most favorable for these steadier and heavier showers will be focused near the Oklahoma border and mainly west of a Larned to Medicine Lodge line. In this area ponding of water/localized flooding issues will be possible tonight. Currently I am leaning away from issuing a flood watch product due to the latest flash flood guidance. Latest 1 hour flash flood guidance in this area ranges from 1.5 to 2.5 inches and 3 hour FFG is greater than 2.5. Currently the highest max 1hr rainfall rates appear to be near 1.5 inches and the chance for >1 an hour rainfall rates spotty and ranging from 40-60%. Marginal flash flood potential but again easily could see some water issues to be possible in a few of the the poor drainage area or low lying areas.

As the upper wave and axis of high moisture exit southwest Kansas tonight, the upper level flow will become more zonal. In this developing westerly flow there will be multiple shortwave troughs moving across the region late week and over the upcoming weekend. On Friday, Southwest Kansas will remain on the southern periphery of our first main upper level trough. A low (30% or less) probability for isolated convection will be possible late Friday near the moisture/instability axis over central Kansas. The chance of scattered afternoon and evening storms will persist through the weekend as several more upper waves cross the Plains. This will result in a low (20-30%) chance for thunderstorms, especially during the overnight periods and east of highway 283.

Warmer temperatures are expected to return to southwest Kansas this weekend. Zonal flow and weak ridging aloft will support lee trough development, causing 850mb temperatures to climb into the 20-25C range. High temperatures are expected to climb out of the 80s and back into the 90s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 437 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

VFR will prevail through this TAF period, but a period of MVFR stratus is likely 06-12z Thu, most likely at GCK/HYS. Radar imagery at 2130z depicted numerous showers and thunderstorms near all four airports. Thunderstorms will produce erratic strong outflow wind gusts of 40-50 kts. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through 12z Thu, with TAF amendments likely. All rain is expected to end, with VFR returning, 12-18z Thu. After 18z Thu, south winds will increase at all airports, gusting 23-27 kts.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.