textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain over central Kansas and isolated t-storms over western Kansas will end this evening.

- Fog is possible tonight as skies clear and winds become light.

- Isolated strong to severe afternoon and evening t-storms are forecast for Saturday through Monday.

- Temperatures will warm into the 90s by Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

The weak upper level system that brought the rain yesterday and today will move off to the east tonight. Skies will clear from west to east. However, with a humid air mass, recent rains and light winds, areas of fog could develop after midnight.

A large closed low over the western United States today will open up and progress eastward as a stronger system over the pacific approaches the West Coast. Low level drying across the western high plains will lead to the development of a strong moisture gradient, with drier air in far western Kansas and very moist air to the east. Ahead of the upper level trough, difluent upper level flow, moderate to high surface based CAPE and a dryline will lead to isolated to scattered t-storms Friday and Saturday. The severe risk will cover all of western Kansas Friday but then shift into central Kansas Saturday as the dry line pushes eastward. Although the wind shear profile (hodograph) will not strongly favor tornadoes, large hail and damaging winds are still concerns given the veering wind profile. Instead of moving east and pushing a cold front through Kansas, this upper trough is progged to slow down as it encounters strong ridging over the Plains. This will keep western Kansas on the southern edge of the westerlies through Monday. We are now in the time of year when t-storm clusters can't be ruled out as long as there is mid level flow across the Rockies. Such clusters often form in the lee of the Rockies and move into western Kansas during the late evening and overnight. Thus, there are slight chances of t-storms into Monday night.

The various ensemble suites and grand ensemble indicate upper level ridge formation across the central United States by mid next week. However, there is still a general tendency to keep a weakness in the 500mb height field across the plains despite the high upper level heights, along with a weak upper level trough over the Desert Southwest. Therefore, this will probably not be a solid ridge that completely precludes all rainfall; but rather a pattern that could feature isolated to even scattered (10-20% chances) t-storm development during the afternoons and evenings. Where this local height minimum resides will determine the preferred location for t-storms.

High-end severe t-storm chances are very low starting mid next week given the light mid to high level winds.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1158 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Light rain will gradually taper off at KDDC and KHYS this evening as a weak upper level system moves eastward. Before 00z, isolated t-storms are possible at KGCK and KLBL with afternoon heating in a moist and uncapped environment. With light winds and partial clearing tonight in the wake of the upper trough, fog may develop at KLBL, KDDC and KGCK; but it is unclear how dense.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.