textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Very windy conditions will return to southwest Kansas on Monday, with wind gusts up to 50 mph potentially causing reduced visibility due to blowing dust.

- Critical to Extreme Fire Weather is expected Monday afternoon across extreme southwest Kansas (west of Highway 283 and south of a Syracuse to Garden City line). In this area wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph and relative humidity near 5% will be possible.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon east of Highway 283. The primary threats are very large hail and damaging winds, with a few tornadoes also possible.

- Models show an improving chance for precipitation across all of southwest Kansas by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Models this evening are in good agreement in the evolution of the upper level trough over the Four Corners region over the next 24 hours. They also all are in good agreement with a shortwave trough/500mb jet max ejecting northeastward from the base of the trough towards western Kansas during the day on Monday. This will result in a deepening surface low over eastern Colorado, significantly tightening the surface pressure gradient across southwest Kansas as it lifts a surface boundary back north across southwest Kansas during the day. This setup combined with 850 mb winds increasing to 30 knots after 18z suggests that the NBM may end up being a little low on afternoon wind gusts given the past few days but if you lean towards the more realistic 75th percent (based on BUFR soundings wind gusts via momentum transfer). This would result in a few gusts approaching 50 mph which is well below high wind warning but strong enough to produce areas of blowing dust in locations that did receive rainfall from the storms Sunday night.

The models today places this northward moving surface boundary near Garden City and Larned by mid afternoon with a dryline extending south of this boundary into western Oklahoma. East of the dryline the southerly low level flow will maintain dewpoints above 60 degrees. Also improve mid level instability and synoptic lift are expected during the afternoon as an upper level trough approaches from the west. This will result in another chance for strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday afternoon and evening across Central and South Central Kansas. Any storms that develop have a high probability of becoming severe, with the primary hazards being very large hail and damaging wind gusts. A risk for tornadoes also exists, with the most favorable area located across South Central Kansas where model guidance shows the dryline/cold front intersection coinciding with a developing low level jet early Monday evening.

In addition to the severe weather threat...a critical to extreme fire weather risk is expected on Monday afternoon with the highest fire risk being confined to areas west of the dryline, where gusty southwesterly winds will align with a much drier airmass. Deep vertical mixing will not only transport high momentum winds down to the surface but will also draw down dry air aloft, causing afternoon relative humidity values to bottom out in the single digits. The combination of frequest gusts above 40 mph and extreme low level dryness will create a highly volatile environment favorable for extreme fire behavior and rapid rates of spread. Current Red Flag Warning has this area outlined very well.

This first upper level trough will lift northeast toward the Upper Mississippi Valley Monday night, allowing the cold front to push south into Oklahoma. By Tuesday morning, this boundary is forecast to stall from southeast Colorado into western Oklahoma and remain nearly stationary through the middle of the week as a secondary upper level disturbance approaches from the west. Although specific details remain unclear, ensemble guidance suggests the mid week period may present multiple opportunities for accumulating rainfall across southwest Kansas.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Gusty north winds are expected overnight into early Monday morning behind a cold front that will briefly push south toward Liberal. This frontal boundary will then lift north as a warm front during the day, allowing gusty south winds to return. The boundary is expected to stall near Garden City during the afternoon. This setup will keep winds northerly at Hays not only tonight but also on Monday. Southerly winds will develop at Dodge City and Liberal between 15Z and 18Z, with afternoon gusts reaching 35 to 40 knots.These gusty winds will likely produce some reduced visibilities due to blowing dust. Winds will be more complex near Garden City, where the front stalls, but a north to south wind shift remains possible between 16Z and 20Z. BUFR soundings indicate VFR conditions with the exception of a 3-5hour time frame between 06z and 15z when a period of MVFR ceilings will develop behind the cold front passage.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

A critical to extreme fire weather risk is expected across southwest Kansas Monday afternoon. Ensembles earlier this evening agree that the dryline will be located near or just east of Highway 283 which will result in keeping the unseasonably dry air mass over extreme southwest Kansas (Cimarron Grassland). By late morning the stronger boundary layer winds will mix down to the surface, bringing gusts over 30 mph before noon and exceeding 40 mph by 2 PM. This deep mixing will also pull exceptionally dry air to the ground, dropping relative humidity into the single digits. These conditions will create a volatile environment west of Highway 283 and south of Garden City, where Red Flag Warning conditions are most likely.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ074>077- 084>087.