textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning continues through early this evening on strong southwest winds and RH's down to 15%

- Increased fire weather risk Thursday to at least Near-Critical conditions as dry south winds resume west of Highway 283.

- A more significant Critical Fire day likely west of the dryline on Friday (especially west of Highway 283) with severe weather risk east of the dryline (15% combined severe outlook east of Coldwater to Great Bend line)

- Sub-freezing temperatures likely Saturday and/or Sunday morning as cold air mass drives south behind significant spring storm system.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 114 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Spring storm system #1 of 2 continued its approach on the Central Plains, centered near the Utah-Colorado line as of 1730Z. The enhanced, larger scale upward vertical motion with the approaching wave will allow the dryline to sharpen across south central KS into OK by late afternoon/evening, and the dryline will be very close to the southeastern corner of our DDC CWA (southeastern Barber County) such that we will need to keep some slight chance POPs in for strong/severe storm potential -- especially if any left-moving splits off of any supercells across northern OK clips Barber County. Any convective threat should end by mid-late evening as the larger scale storm system continues its push east tonight.

On Wednesday behind the storm, models have trended a bit deeper/farther south with the upper wave, such that low level pressure gradient will remain tight enough to keep west-northwest winds higher than previously forecast, thus have collaborated with neighboring offices to bump winds up above NBM baseline to NBM75th percentile with a little bit of 90th percentile influence much of the day (resulting in sustained wind forecast of 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts).

On Thursday, the low levels will begin responding to the next storm system -- a larger scale system with deeper surface low which will fully mature by Friday. A much colder air mass will also be involved with Friday's storm up across the northern High Plains, which will drive south toward northwest Kansas Friday afternoon. Meanwhile, a reshaped dryline will develop across southwest/south central KS (likely positioned somewhere between Dodge City and Pratt) by late afternoon. A coupled upper level jet structure will take shape over the warm/moist air mass, allowing large scale forcing for ascent to result in further cyclogenesis/frontogenesis -- setting the stage for what looks to be a rather significant severe weather outbreak across the eastern half of Kansas and much of Oklahoma. The western edge/early development of this potential severe weather outbreak will likely include at least the eastern/southeastern one-third of the DDC CWA, and SPC has maintained a 15% outlook from roughly Coldwater to Great Bend and points east (higher 30% outlook just east of our DDC CWA).

An intense cold front with very sharp temperature and significant pressure rises will move across western Kansas Friday evening, and models are certainly suggestive of at least a 1 to 3 hour period of potential high wind at the onset of frontal passage. The official forecast does not yet reflect this, but look for the wind forecast to continue to increase in strength (perhaps significantly) as confidence in timing and strength of the cold front increases.

Fairly strong northwest winds will continue through at least the first half of Saturday behind the intense spring storm, but sensible weather will improve by later Saturday afternoon. Cooler temperatures will certainly be noticed with afternoon highs Saturday in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Given the expected magnitude of the cold air mass, we will have to watch for possible freeze headlines Saturday and/or Sunday morning.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 500 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

VFR is expected through TAF pd. Gusty southwest winds will weaken 10-15 kt between 00Z-03Z tonight. Light southwest winds are expected through the overnight period. Winds will eventually become west to northwest through the day tomorrow. No major aviation impacts are expected through the next 24 hours.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ061>063-074>077-084>087.