textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- After a brief freezing spell, temperatures gradually increase through the forecast period

- High uncertainty still surrounds the next chance of precipitation next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 103 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Surface high pressure overhead this morning, that was responsible for the widespread frost/freeze, will shift eastward throughout today bringing southerly flow back across the area. Temperatures will quickly rebound in response into the 60s. This warming trend will continue through the weekend and into next week given persistent southwesterly flow. Expect highs in the 70s by Monday and lower 80s by midweek next week.

Attention toward the next precipitation chances remains late next week as a trough digs and deepens across the Western U.S. This system will slowly progress eastward. As the previous forecaster noted, this is climatologically a very dry period for the high plains, and it takes a very specific setup to get decent moisture this far west. So history would be generally against it. However, the slow progression of the system is favorable, but there still remains uncertainty. The biggest factor is the level of return moisture back into the area after one of the first significant Fall cold frontal passages recently swept across much of the country. Per surface observations, the cold front has tracked well into the Gulf, and is expected to cut farther south over the next day or two. So it would take a lot for that richer moisture to come back in time for the upcoming system, but it does have several days. Nevertheless, POPs remain largely unchanged at around 30-40% toward the end of the forecast period. Globals do try and bring meager instability, so thunder could be possible, but widespread soaking rains is still looking unlikely.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1138 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period with calm variable winds to start. Winds increase out of the south 10-15 knots as high pressure moves east of the area. Good flying conditions are expected.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.