textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread light to moderate rain is expected late Saturday through early Sunday, with rain amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch common, heaviest along the Oklahoma border, and much lighter amounts along I-70.

- Cloudy and cold Sunday with daytime temperatures in the 30s and 40s.

- A warming trend is expected next week, along with strong south winds Tuesday and Wednesday.

- A strong storm system will likely bring several days of significant rainfall to Kansas November 20-22. Those making travel plans on the weekend before Thanksgiving should watch this storm system carefully.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

After widespread dense fog Friday morning, midday visible satellite imagery depicted an eroding stratus bank west of US 83. Sunshine will prevail this afternoon, although with scattered cirrus increasing from the southwest, with temperatures in the 50s. Midlevel height ridge axis will pass SW KS this evening, after which high and eventually midlevel clouds will increase more quickly. NBM forecast minimum temperatures Saturday may be a few degrees too cold, given elevated southeast winds and increasing mid/high clouds interfering with radiational cooling. Most locations will be in the lower to mid 30s, just above freezing, 6 am Saturday.

Models remain consistent with the track of the next negatively tilted shortwave, from over the Great Basin 6 am Saturday, to near northeast New Mexico 6 pm Saturday. Clouds will rapidly increase Saturday in response to the improving forcing for ascent, with rain breaking out south and west of Dodge City Saturday afternoon. With thickening clouds and the onset of rain, temperatures will be held in the 40s. The addition of an elevated raw moist southeast wind will make for a noticeably November-like weekend.

The majority of the rain will fall Saturday night, with rain amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch common - greater with southern extent toward Oklahoma, lesser with northern extent toward I-70. All precipitation in Kansas will take the form of rain, with any wet snow flakes restricted to the higher terrain of eastern Colorado.

The progressive shortwave will exit quickly Sunday early, taking the rain with it. However, moist easterly upslope will be left behind, and models agree stratus will hold all day Sunday. NBM was several degrees too warm Sunday given the anomalous cold set up, and along with neighboring WFOs, lowered Sunday's temperatures toward the colder MAV MOS guidance. GFS holds 850 mb temperatures in the 1-2C range Sunday, and many locations will not get out of the 30s Sunday afternoon. Stratus are not expected to clear through Monday morning, which will work against any freeze concerns or frost formation, with temperatures essentially holding steady in the 30s.

South winds return Monday, but this will be recirculated continental polar air, and stratus will be very reluctant to erode. This is often the case as we enter the shortest days of the year with the weakest insolation. With some afternoon cloud breaks, temperatures will struggle into the lower 50s Monday afternoon.

The next strong shortwave is forecast to reach California 6 pm Monday, eject through the Great Basin 6 pm Tuesday, and then eject well to the north of SW KS Wednesday. This synoptic evolution will create strong to intense south winds Tuesday and Wednesday, and NBM wind grids were actually rather strong with today's update. Gusts of 40-50 mph are likely each day. Associated warm air advection will deliver a warming trend, with widespread 60s Wednesday afternoon. Sustained south winds will ensure the first widespread killing freeze of the fall season will continue to be delayed.

Friday through the pre-Thanksgiving weekend, the next stronger, larger storm system remains apparent, but global models are out of alignment, to be expected this far out. GFS is displaying its progressive bias, while ECMWF's global ensemble members are much, much wetter - with widespread significant rainfall possible in Kansas November 20-22. NBM shows rapidly increasing pops for rain next Friday, and this appears reasonable for now. Those making travel plans on the weekend before Thanksgiving should watch this storm system carefully. This system is still way out in the Pacific ocean; please follow trusted weather sources regarding this system as Thanksgiving approaches.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 400 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the majority of the TAF. Flight conditions will start to change, though, at the very end of the period as a weather system begins to influence the terminals. In fact, low clouds may lead to IFR conditions, beginning at KLBL Saturday afternoon. A continued decrease in flight category is expected late Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. Widespread low clouds and scattered rain showers will start Saturday evening and then continue to increase in areal coverage through early Sunday morning. Otherwise, winds will continue to be out of the SE to S. The pressure gradient will increase tomorrow and will lead to breezy and gusty SE to S winds 15-20 kt with gusts of 25 to 30 kt during the daytime tomorrow.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.