textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly continued very warm to hot temperatures and dry

- However, a slight chance of storms is possible Friday evening

- Hot end of the weekend into into next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1111 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

A 597 decameter anticyclone was located across the upper midwest this evening. This feature will prevail in the grand scheme of things, although will shift position over the next several days. The net result is still the same quiet weather pattern with very warm to hot highs, mild lows, and generally very dry conditions. Otherwise, highs today will be near normal with value ranging from the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Lows tonight will be in a mix of 60s to 70s.

There might be a subtle weakness in the mid level ridge Friday evening. This could end with the low chance of storms across south-central Kansas in the evening. The NBM now has chance pops for mainly just Medicine Lodge to account for this low probability of storms. The rest of the FA will see dry weather conditions and no storms. Highs Friday will be a few degrees warmer with values solidly just in the 90s and with continued mild lows of 60s to 70s.

The 500 hPa ridge will move itself directly over the region towards the end of the weekend and into the beginning of next week. This would support the notion of a dry forecast with hot highs (low 100s likely peaking for a few locations during this period). This echoes with increasing probabilities from the Grand Ensemble of highs greater than 100F Sunday through Tuesday. Lows will also trend warmer with values only bottoming out in the 70s instead of the 60s.

The mid level ridge may move south far enough that monsoonal moisture starts to advect around the end of of it by the middle portion of the next business week. This may allow for the potential of isolated storm development. Coverage per the global models and the ensembles is looking to remain pretty sparse. The best chance of storms should be confined to the western zones tied with with upslope flow/convection forming off the higher terrain of Colorado and drifting east.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 537 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

An upper level ridge and surface high pressure will lead to VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period. Winds will pick up in the afternoon to around 12 kts with gusts up to 20 kts.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.