textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably hot Thursday with record or near record afternoon temperatures in the upper 90s to 100.

- Near-critical to critical fire weather conditions increasingly likely across mainly far southwest Kansas Thursday afternoon

- Increasing severe weather risk Saturday and/or Sunday afternoon and evening, although magnitude and areal coverage of severe weather risk is still highly uncertain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 134 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

A hot and dry weather pattern will prevail through the weekend, as the large scale pattern will resemble something more like late June instead of mid May. Western Kansas will be in between two jet stream branches with rather weakish mid and upper level winds once the current upper level ridge to the southwest breaks down. Anomalously warm air across the southwestern quarter of the CONUS will expand across the High Plains, but the expansion of the hot air mass will be fighting with northern branch jet cold fronts. The northern branch will be progressive, so these cold fronts this week will really not be cold at all -- more so preventing multi-day record hot temperatures. That said, Thursday continues to look to be the hottest day, and 75th percentile NBM has a high of 100F at Dodge City (a 1-in-4 chance of occurrence based on the NBM membership). The Dodge City record high for May 14th of 97F falls very near the 50th percentile of the NBM on the latest run (01Z 12 May).

We continue to watch for possible critical fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon, mainly along and west of Highway 283 as global models suggest very deep mixing up to around 600mb with mean winds in that layer around 20 knots out of the west-southwest. Temperatures soaring well into the mid to upper 90s and dewpoints well down into the lower to mid 30s west of the dryline will lead to RH values in the 10 to 15% range for much of southwest Kansas. NBM POPs Thursday late afternoon and evening are generally 10 to 15%, but these may need to be bumped up a bit as there is some indication of very high-based convection along the dryline and/or any other surface convergence zones as a surface low deepens across southwest Kansas. The next weak cold front will push through southwest Kansas some time Friday, but as mentioned above, this will not be a "pattern changing" front as highs Friday will still likely be in the upper 80s to lower 90s despite some northerly component surface wind. Near the frontal zone across the Red Hills, some near-100F highs appear likely Friday afternoon. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there will be an increased severe weather risk over the weekend as some higher gulf dewpoints expand farther northwest into southwest Kansas as the next shortwave trough moves out across the Rockies with the larger scale pattern becoming more southwesterly aloft. It is too early to determine how expansive any severe weather risk will be Saturday and/or Sunday across Kansas (including our southwest KS region), so keep checking back for updates on this risk.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1152 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

A fairly strong nocturnal low level jet was already in progress at the onset of this TAF period, leading to LLWS conditions with 45 to 50 knots only 1000 to 2000 feet AGL. The LLWS conditions will subside around sunrise, with the next aviation forecasting challenge being the timing of wind shift later in the day. Latest indications from HRRR model are that the cold front will most likely reach a LBL to DDC to HYS line around 18Z Tuesday. A fairly warm and dry airmass behind the front will prevent development of low stratus clouds, thus VFR flight category will continue.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.