textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe weather risk this afternoon into this evening, but colder air and prolonged cloud cover could hinder the highest potential

- Critical Fire Weather conditions in our far southwest counties this afternoon

- Disturbance Thursday morning through Friday morning will bring the next chance at precipitation

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

A vigorous upper-level shortwave will advance across the central Rockies and into the Central Plains today, accompanied by strengthening southwesterly flow aloft. This will promote deep moisture return in the lower levels of the atmosphere as seen with the copious amounts of low clouds currently across the area. A surface warm front is expected to move north into the area late this afternoon with some clearing from south to north. The main challenge today is how much clearing will occur and if we can rebound in temperatures this afternoon. If this occurs, thunderstorms are expected to form and quickly become severe. SPC currently has a slight risk of severe storms across much of the CWA with an enhanced risk east of Highway 183. If storms do form, they will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. The probability of tornadoes are also moderate across central Kansas this evening. On the other hand, if we remain cloudy throughout this afternoon, storms will have a hard time forming. And if they do they will be elevated. Winds this afternoon will shift to the southeast with highs in the 60s. The exception to this will be along the KS/OK border and far western Kansas where 70s will be observed. In addition to the storm thereat, low RHs and gusty winds are expected across far southwestern Kansas this afternoon increasing the fire weather threat. A red flag warning has been issued for this area to account for this.

Thunderstorm activity is expected to be confined to central Kansas tonight with the severe threat remaining high. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threat with a continued possibility of a few tornadoes. A cold front will sweep through the area after midnight shifting winds to the west, then to the northeast around sunrise tomorrow. These northerly winds are expected to continue through tomorrow. Clearing is expected tomorrow with mostly clear skies by tomorrow afternoon. Some mid to upper level clouds then move into the area tomorrow night into Tuesday. As for temperatures, lows tonight are expected to range from the upper 30s across northwest Kansas to mid 50s across south central Kansas. Highs tomorrow will range from the mid 60s along the I-70 corridor to upper 70s along the KS/OK border. Lows tomorrow night will dip into the 30s with low 40s across south central Kansas. Freeze headlines will most likely have to be issued for much of the area tomorrow night, but will hold off until the storm threat has diminished today/tonight.

Dry conditions continue Tuesday night through Wednesday with light northeasterly winds and partly cloudy skies. Ensemble models then suggest a system to move through the area mid week with increased precipitation chances Thursday morning through Friday morning. As of now, no severe weather is expected with this system. Dry conditions then return late week. As for temperatures, highs will generally be in the 60s north to upper 70s south Tuesday through Wednesday with 60s on Thursday through Saturday. Lows will generally be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 500 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

A stratus deck is starting to erode from the southwest, particularly at KGCK/KDDC and already over at KLBL. KHYS will probably stay in reduced cigs through much of the TAF pd. The stratus deck is expected to fill back in through the overnight periods. The latest update for storm potential is will have CB/TS groups in for KHYS, but keep clear for the rest of the terminals. The main timing on storms would between 00Z-06Z tonight, with preference to the end of that period. Winds will be fairly light and variable through TAF pd.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 124 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across far southwest portions of Kansas, notably Grant, Morton, Stanton, and Stevens Counties. Expect the potential for rapid fire weather spread due to southerly and southwesterly winds 20-30 mph over-top minimum relative humidity levels dropping as low as 13%. Burning is discouraged as any fires that potentially break out can spread quickly.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ074-075- 084-085.