textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Southwest Kansas is expected to remain mainly dry for the upcoming week.

- After seasonably hot temperatures Saturday afternoon, a rapid heating trend is expected Sunday and Monday afternoons with 100+ degree readings returning.

- Very hot afternoons will continue through next weekend, hotter than NBM guidance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

A beautiful midsummer day was in progress across SW KS at midday, with satellite imagery depicting a perfectly clear sky and surface observations showing light winds. Temperatures Saturday afternoon will represent a relative minimum, with readings actually a few degrees below early August normals in the lower 90s. A few locations may fall short of 90 degrees this afternoon as weak cold advection continues on weak northeast winds.

Clear calm and quiet tonight as winds go light and variable. A clear sky, light/calm winds and relatively dry air will once again allow for strong radiational cooling tonight, at least for midsummer standards. Sunrise Sunday temperatures will be several degrees below normal again, in the 60-65 range.

All models show a strong heating trend Sunday and Monday, with thickness and 850 mb temperatures climbing quickly through the period. 850 mb temperatures as high as 33C will support temperatures well over 100 Monday afternoon. Once again, NBM does not appear hot enough for the next few days, and increased Sunday and Monday max temperature grids several degrees. 12z MAV guidance is forecasting Monday afternoon temperatures of 105-108 across much of SW KS, which will be supported by improved mixing and elevated south winds. NBM probability of maximum temperatures exceeding 100 degrees is highest, >90%, across the southwest zones where confidence is highest the hottest temperatures will occur Monday afternoon. The current grids support apparent temperatures/heat index <105 for all zones Monday, so a heat advisory does not currently look required.

A completely dry, very quiet regime, typical of early August, will persist through at least 7 pm Monday, with all pops at 0% and few if any clouds. A few thunderstorms may enter the northwest zones Monday night, as a weak shortwave rounds the northeast periphery of the subtropical ridge. This subtropical midlevel ridge near 598-600 dm in intensity, will move little over the coming week, slowly crawling north into the Great Basin, with SW KS beneath the eastern arm of the strongest subsidence. Tuesday through Friday, a stray storm may sneak into the northwest zones amid the weak NWly flow aloft. NBM pops are correctly minimal, and confident most locations will remain dry through the upcoming week. High confidence of a hot and dry pattern persisting through August 10, with CPC's 6-10 day outlook showcasing an 80% probability of above normal temperatures, and below normal precipitation.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1013 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF period, with VFR/SKC and light winds.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.