textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold front late this afternoon/evening will likely initiate isolated to widely scattered strong/severe storm generally east of a Hays to Larned line.

- Larger round of strong to marginally severe storms likely overnight, but track of this activity likely remaining north along and/or north of I-70 corridor.

- After a relief from the heat Wednesday, a build-up toward another heat wave in store for the weekend into early next week.

- Record or at least near-record highs well above 100 degrees Sunday and/or Monday of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 112 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Early this afternoon, the downslope thermal ridge was pushing well into southwest and south central Kansas with multiple automated stations at or above 97F before 18Z (1 PM CDT). This is on par if not a degree or two above the hourly NBM temperatures, so we are well on our way to highs in the 103 to 107F range, east of generally an Elkhart to Dodge City to Ness City line. Thankfully, relief is on the way in the form of the next cold front, but it will not be pushing south until later this evening. An isolated strong/severe thunderstorm or two still appears likely along the surface frontal zone with much of the CAMs and 12Z HREF LPMM Composite Reflectivity field suggesting best zone somewhere southeast of HYS or so. Should any convective activity form along the front in our eastern CWA, it will quickly move deeper into central Kansas. The next larger round of strong to potentially severe storms will take shape later tonight in the post-frontal upslope regime across northeastern Colorado, southwestern Nebraska, and adjacent far northwestern Kansas. A mesoscale convective system (MCS) is likely to evolve out of this late evening development and track east-southeastward toward and eventually along the I-70 corridor, lasting much of the overnight into the early morning hours along the post-frontal instability/moisture axis where MCS maintenance parameters will be greatest. As such, we will keep the 30-40 POPs going up north overnight with potential for these POPs to be increased as we get closer to this event as track/maintenance of overnight MCS becomes a bit more clear.

Following tonight's cold front, Wednesday looks to be refreshingly "cooler" with highs upper 80s to lower 90s, but as the upper level ridge axis makes another run at expanding back north, so will the 850mb and surface temperatures. Another heat wave appears to be on track starting this weekend lasting into early next week with Sunday and Monday the hottest days in the current forecast. NBM temperatures continue to tick upward with 75th percentile MaxT on Sunday in Barber County 110+ -- easily record/near record territory for much of the region.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 506 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Flight conditions are forecast to be mostly in VFR contingent on if HYS sees storms tonight. Currently a frontal boundary has descended across the area having passed through GCK and HYS by the start of the TAF period. This will reach DDC in the first couple hours and LBL a few hours later. This will shift winds out of the north/northeast at around the same speed (10-15KTs). Storms are forecast to develop and move north of HYS with ensembles keeping chances of reaching at HYS around 20-30%. As a result of >50% chances of thunderstorms north of HYS, a VCTS was included but a thunderstorm is possible.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ065-066- 078>081-087>090.