textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Tropical/near tropical environment already in place across southwest Kansas with anomalously high moisture content on the midday Upper Air sounding at Dodge City (well above the 99th percentile of all upper air observations at DDC).

- Flood Watch continues for areas northwest of a Meade-Dodge City-La Crosse line through Thursday.

- Excessive rainfall rates well in excess of one inch per hour likely across much of southwest and west central Kansas tonight, with scattered locations seeing two inches or more of rain between 7 PM this evening and 10 AM Thursday morning.

- The final rainfall episode from this whole storm system will come Thursday, most likely an additional 1/2 to 1 inch of rain along an east-west axis just north of the low pressure track.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

The first round of rain this morning through early this afternoon continued to move off to the northeast, resulting in fairly widespread 0.20-0.30" rainfall, mainly west of Highway 283. Another small corridor of enhanced rainfall moved across portions of south central Kansas yielding similar amounts, locally around 1/2". MRMS Reflectivity at Lowest Altitude product showed a distinct break in the activity from northeastern New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandle as of 1830Z, so we should see a fairly large area of southwest Kansas seeing a multiple hour break in rainfall later this afternoon before the main rainfall event arrives tonight.

The ongoing Flood Watch remains in effect for much of southwest and all of west central Kansas, mainly due to the flash flooding risk from the main event later tonight through Wednesday morning. The stage is set for heavy rainfall, and the DDC 18Z sounding confirmed a highly anomalous 1.74" Precipitable Water (PW), very much supportive of excessive rainfall rates later on tonight. This PW falls well above the 99th percentile of all observed DDC upper air soundings with only a handful of observations in history showing higher PW from roughly mid-September to early October. Given the tropical characteristics of the 18Z sounding very much aligning with modeled PW, we feel even more confident of excessive rainfall tonight when the combined remnants of Hurricane Polo and the incoming upper level low tied to, but cutoff from, the polar jet stream. Thus, see no reason to deviate much from the fairly aggressive QPF forecast and counties in the Flood Watch for tonight through Thursday.

The tricky part of the forecast is the incoming dry slot tied to the eventual maturation of the extra-tropical cyclone (ETC) on Wednesday. The dry intrusion will likely move rapidly north during the day Wednesday across western Kansas, so heavy rain will shift fairly quickly to the north during the day Wednesday. In fact, we will probably see some sunshine by afternoon, leading to a destabilization of the atmosphere for renewed surface-based convection. By Wednesday afternoon, the surface low will likely remain anchored over southeastern Colorado, and this is likely the best location for the most aggressive surface-based convection, including the possibility of an isolated tornado or two. Surface- based severe risk will extend northeastward along an arc across west central into portions of southwest Kansas where local convergence is enhanced along a northwest to southeast surface wind confluence axis. Any new surface-based storms along this arc will be capable of a tornado given the low Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) environment and 0-1km SRH in the 100-200 m2/s2 range.

The entire ETC will undergo fairly rapid occlusion late Wednesday and Wednesday Night, and after Wednesday Night ,the mid level cyclone will begin its spin-down/weakening phase as we head into Thursday, and latest models suggest the 500mb low center will track due east across southwest Kansas with an associated 700mb level deformation axis just north of the 500mb low track. This is where additional rainfall of 1/2 to 1 inch is likely to occur, hence the reason the Flood Watch continues through the day Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 452 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

High confidence of strongly degraded flight categories through 18z Wed, with IFR/LIFR stratus, and reduced visibility in BR and widespread moderate to heavy rain. Precipitation expected to be of a showery/convective/scattered nature through 06z Wed. Widespread rain, more stratiform in nature, moderate to heavy at times, is expected 06-18z Wed as the remnants of Pacific Hurricane Polo rotate through SW KS. A strong dry slot will arrive after 18z Wed, with VFR conditions returning and increasing south winds gusting 25-30 kts.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Thursday evening for KSZ030-031-043>046- 061>064-074>078-084>087.