textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread beneficial rainfall expected Tuesday night through Wednesday, with the highest coverage and amounts favoring areas northwest of Dodge City. Amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 inch are expected to be common.

- Unseasonably cool temperatures expected Tuesday and Wednesday, with afternoon temperatures only in the 40s Wednesday.

- Widespread light freeze (28-32 degrees) expected Thursday morning.

- Rapid warming trend Thursday through Saturday, with dry weather resuming.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 101 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

WV imagery indicates an extremely broad scale upper level trough of low pressure dominating the Dakotas eastward into the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a weakening upper level ridge of high pressure is transitioning east through the Southern High Plains downstream of a closed upper low pushing east through southern California. Near the surface, a cold front is pushing southeast across southwest Kansas.

Significant rain chances (70-90%) return this evening and persist into early Wednesday as the SREF continues to indicate the aforementioned positively-tilted closed upper low opening up as it pushes east through the Desert Southwest today, phasing in with an embedded shortwave dipping south across the Colorado Rockies tonight as it cycles through the broader scale trough to our north. This will set up an increasingly difluent southwest flow aloft with an intensifying +130kt jet lifting northeast through the Texas Panhandle into southwest/central Kansas. Near the surface, a stalled frontal boundary is projected to remain anchored well to our south while an east-northeast upslope flow prevails across western Kansas. Light to moderate rain development is expected across eastern Colorado by this evening as H5 vort maxima begin to eject out of the Rockies with rain spreading eastward into west central and portions of southwest Kansas overnight into early Wednesday morning. The HREF continues to show the best chance for appreciable rainfall across west central Kansas into northern portions of southwest Kansas where there is a 70-90% probability of 24-hr QPF exceeding 0.5 of an inch by late Wednesday afternoon. Much lesser rainfall is expected farther southeast into south central Kansas where there is 70-90% probability of 24-hr QPF only topping 0.1 of an inch.

Much cooler air arriving behind an advancing cold front will result in a significant drop in highs today as H85 temperatures drop to a little below 5C across much of the area. Combined with mostly cloudy to overcast skies, look for highs only up into the 50s(F) today as suggested by the HREF pointing to a 40-60% probability of temperatures exceeding 50F in west central Kansas into central Kansas with a 60-80% probability of temperatures topping 55F in south central Kansas. The cooling trend continues into Wednesday surface high pressure in the Northern Plains helps push colder air into the area with H85 temperatures slipping closer to 0C. Highs may struggle to reach the 40s(F) with the HREF indicating only a 50-70% probability of temperatures nudging above 40F in extreme southwest Kansas to a 80-90% probability of temperatures reaching above 45F in central/south central Kansas, especially under overcast skies with the potential for lingering areas of light rain.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 431 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

High confidence that flight categories will gradually degrade through this TAF period, with gradually lowering stratus ceilings, and increasing areas of rain, along with lowering visibility in BR/DZ/RA. Strong northeast winds gusting 30-35 kts as of 0930z Tue will gradually diminish through the day, with light northeast winds prevailing for the remainder of the period. Stratus ceilings will gradually lower to MVFR through Tuesday, lowering to IFR by 06z Wed. Light to moderate rain will overspread the airports 06-12z Wed, with reducing visibility in BR/RA to 3sm at times.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for KSZ043-044-061>063-074>076-084-085.