textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms Monday afternoon and Monday night will favor the western zones adjacent to Colorado, where some may be severe with large hail and damaging winds. - Stronger signal of a more widespread complex of thunderstorms Tuesday night, with severe wind/hail risk and widespread heavy rainfall.

- The pattern of nightly thunderstorms will continue through Thursday, with afternoon temperatures remaining well below normal.

- A distinct pattern change is expected this weekend and early next week, with much hotter afternoons, rain chances ending, and strong south winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Midday satellite imagery and surface observations showed widespread stratus across all of SW KS, with very moist easterly upslope behind last night's MCS (mesoscale convective system). Given we are experiencing the strongest sunshine of the year, stratus is expected to scatter out this afternoon, but this process may be slower than models suggest. Wet soils and evaporation from recent rainfall may be assisting in keeping the boundary layer saturated longer. At any rate, temperatures this afternoon will be held well below normal, into the lower 80s with late afternoon sunshine.

Most of the reliable CAM solutions (12z ARW,RRFS,FV3) keep any thunderstorm development this evening/tonight confined to the western zones, adjacent to the Colorado border, which makes sense given how worked over the air mass over SW KS is at midday. Severe wind/hail probability is expected to be confined to areas west of US 83 through tonight. Will comment on 12z NAM based solutions showing an MCS arriving in the northern zones around sunrise Tuesday. While this solution can't be ruled out, it was ignored for now. Models do agree that stratus will expand across SW KS through sunrise Tuesday.

Assuming the airmass is not overturned by a morning MCS Tuesday (as NAM suggests) there are stronger MCS signals for Tuesday evening/night. SPC maintains 15%/hatched wind probability for the entire CWA, and wind probability may need to be increased pending sufficient instability can develop Tuesday afternoon. 12z ARW, a CAM that has performed well in this active MCS pattern, shows strong development across western zones by 7 pm Tuesday, then widespread severe storms eastward into central Kansas by midnight. ARW gains some support from 12z GFS with strong MCS generation and heavy rainfall over SW KS Tuesday night. Pops in the likely to definite category were maintained Tuesday night. Wind gusts in excess of 70 mph are probable when/where/if the MCS tracks.

The persistent MCS pattern will hold through Wednesday and Thursday, with 1-2 more MCSs probable. SW KS will remain in favorable WNWly midlevel flow aloft, on the northeast periphery of a strong stationary midlevel anticyclone over Old/New Mexico. A more substantial shortwave embedded in this flow appears timed for Thursday, when higher end severe wind/hail is possible.

A significant synoptic pattern change remains forecast by the global models and ensembles, Friday through this weekend. In response to strong troughing over western North America, a strong warming trend is expected Friday through Sunday with increasing south winds. The increasing SWly midlevel flow will establish a strong dryline, but it will likely remained capped despite hotter afternoon temperatures near 100. The dry forecast for this weekend continues to look appropriate.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 512 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Clouds have broken up across the area and CIGs have increased. However, into this late evening and overnight, CIGs are expected to decrease again to IFR categories. Winds will be 10-15 knots out of a southerly direction. There is a slim chance of thunderstorms during the overnight and early Tuesday morning hours, but have held off for now until the convective evolution becomes better forecast. For now, low CIGs are expected. Into Tuesday late morning and afternoon, conditions gradually improve with storm chances reemerging, but most activity is expected to be after the TAF period for now.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.