textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorms (50-70% chance) are expected across portions of southwest Kansas this evening.

- Seasonable temperatures likely through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

WV imagery indicates a southwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of an upper level trough shifting slowly east into the Colorado Rockies. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in southeast Colorado.

A very similar setup to yesterday exists again today with very little change to the broad scale troughing pattern situated across the Intermountain West. Thunderstorm chances (50-70%) pick back up this evening with the SREF indicating another series of H5 vort maxima associated with an upper level shortwave ejecting northeast out of the Southern Rockies into the high plains of eastern Colorado/western Kansas. With steepening mid-level lapse rates and ample instability in place with MUCAPE values upward of 2500 to 3000 J/kg, thunderstorm development is expected across southeast Colorado and the western Oklahoma Panhandle late this afternoon as said H5 vort maxima interact with a quasi-stationary dryline attendant to a developing/strengthening surface low with storms then spreading northeast into southwest Kansas this evening. The latest CAMs and HREF suggest this by indicating a 30-50% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.25 of an inch across portions of southwest Kansas by late evening. A similar set up is forecast Thursday.

More seasonal temperatures are forecast tonight, especially with expected rain cooled air and outflow boundaries about. With the HREF showing a 80-90% probability of temperatures dropping below 70F in extreme southwest Kansas to only a 10% probability of slipping below 70F in south central Kansas, expect lows in the 60s and 70s(F) with the coolest temperatures out west. Look for highs to remain generally in the 90s(F) through the end of the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1115 AM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through early Thursday. However, thunderstorm development is expected across extreme southeast Colorado and the western Oklahoma Panhandle late this afternoon with storms then spreading northeast into southwest Kansas this evening, potentially affecting the vicinity of all TAF sites generally after 01-03Z. South-southwest winds 15 to 25kt with gusts up to 30kt will persist across south central Kansas and much of southwest Kansas through late afternoon as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in southeast Colorado. Winds may subside slightly this evening with loss of daytime heating.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.