textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend to start the week

- Cooler air returns midweek followed by the return of warmer air for the end of the workweek

- Generally dry for the next week...small chance (~10%) of snow early Wednesday morning with a passing upper level wave

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

20Z analysis shows a large digging trough and upper low over the southeast CONUS and an intensifying ridge over California with northwest flow in the plains. A quick moving shortwave in Nebraska is leading to a band of light snow generally in central Nebraska into parts of north central Kansas. Not much accumulation is expected with this snow as most short term models aren't registering even 0.1 inch of snow. A surface 1039 mb high is located in eastern Oklahoma and a lee side trough in the front range is leading to south to southwest winds at 15-25 mph in western Kansas.

Tonight as the shortwave exits and downslope winds from the northwest enters we should see the cold air mass exit and milder air returns as by sunrise Sunday 850 mb temperatures should be around 5 (C). Warm air advection from downslope winds and generally sunny skies should continue to warm much of southwest Kansas into the upper 50s to mid 60s. The pressure gradient should also be more relaxed through the day and winds will be lighter at 5-15 mph.

To start the workweek short term models have the ridge in the southwest being tampered by an upper level trough in the northern Rockies by mid to late day Monday afternoon. A developing shortwave in Colorado and surface low in northeast New Mexico will bring the leading edge of a frontal boundary through southwest Kansas by late day. Ahead of the front lower level temperatures should stay mild as 850 temps will be at 10-12 (C) but we should also be a few degrees cooler on Monday as we will have the increase of mid and high level clouds.

Long range ensemble trends have a longwave trough entering into the central plains with colder air starting on Tuesday and then a stronger wave with colder air coming through Kansas early Wednesday morning. Initial thoughts are both fronts should be mainly dry as there isn't much low level moisture for the lift to work with but both ENS and GEFS QPF output for parts of southwest Kansas do have a few hundredths of precip Wednesday morning and around a dusting of snow. At this point POPs will remain at 10% or below unless we start to see a stronger signal of moisture with the wave. After Wednesday ENS and GEFS 500 mb patterns have a large ridge moving into the western and central CONUS and that will continue the dry trend and the return of milder temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1109 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Mid and high level clouds will continue across much of western Kansas through the afternoon hours and then the clouds should exit after 00Z as the shortwave creating the clouds moves into eastern Kansas. There is a small (~20%) chances of some brief light snow showers around HYS between 18-21Z however the impacts should be minimal. VFR flight category is expected for all terminals during the time period. Winds will be breezy through the afternoon at 10-15 kts sustained with gusts up to 25 kts at times. After sunset the winds should diminish and stay generally 12 kts or less through the rest of the time period.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.