textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, mainly across far southwestern and western Kansas. Drier farther east.

- Much needed widespread rainfall spreading farther east Thursday and Friday with a soaking rain for much of the forecast area.

- Trending drier and warmer over the weekend. Temperatures likely to be above normal.

- More shower and thunderstorm potential during the following week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Today should be mainly a pleasant day across southwest Kansas. Mid to high level moisture will continue advect in from the southern Rockies today. PWATs will continue to increase ahead of a mid-level disturbance through early evening. As this disturbance moves closer to the FA, do expect increasing areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms to spread across far western and southwestern Kansas this afternoon and evening. CAMs like the HRRR, 3 km NAM, and ARW are in general agreement with this precipitation potential later on today and tonight. The highest POPs will be relegated to this area. For areas farther east, such as Dodge City, Hays, and Pratt... a mainly dry day is forecast with precipitation not entering the picture until after Wednesday. Otherwise, highs today will range from the mid 70s in the showery areas, to 80s elsewhere in the more drier weather pattern.

This main widespread soaking rainfall is not expected until the Thursday and Friday timeframe. Here, PWATs will continue to increase even farther with values ranging in the 1.50-1.75" range. This is well above the 90th percentile, with some areas nearing near the max statistical mark. Forecast LREF probabilities for storm total greater than 0.25" really start to peak over 90% from the west to the east through Friday evening. For amounts greater than 0.75", these higher LREF probabilities 50% to 75% are mainly kept across far western and southwestern Kansas. This agrees with WPC excessive rainfall outlook, with the highest probabilities (slight risk) across far western and southwest Kansas Thursday, and then more probabilities (marginal risk) spreading east Friday. Examining ensemble members from both the GEFS and ENS... do echo this pattern with the wettest solutions across the far southwest and western zones, and with ensemble rain amounts then lowering farther east. The latest official forecast has rain amounts around or higher than 1" for Elkhart, Liberal and Garden City. Rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 1" are forecast for the rest of the communities across southwest, central, and south-central Kansas. Isolated higher amounts of course cannot be ruled out at this time. This will depend on exact position of the storms, if there is any training occurring, and just exactly how strong storm strength will be given at any particularly time. Please continue to keep updated with the forecast, as these amounts will surely change over the next few days.

Looking past this wet period, the global models and their ensemble counterparts start to forecast drier air advecting in from the west along with shortwave ridging over the weekend. This would support the notion for a drier and warmer forecast over the weekend. Generally speaking, it looks like temperatures will be above normal right in time for the weekend. Beyond this, ensembles are indicating for more unsettled weather next week with more disturbances and moisture coming in from the southwestern United States.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 457 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

An approaching storm system from the southwest will bring increasing chances of rain to the DDC, LBL, and GCK terminals after 18Z and especially after 00Z. The rain will drop the cloud ceilings to MVFR and IFR flight category after 00Z through 12Z.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.