textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm Tuesday.

- Relatively dry conditions through late Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1152 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

WV imagery indicates a northwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of weak ridging drifting slowly east through the Intermountain West. Near the surface, high pressure is sliding southeast through the Northern High Plains.

Ongoing dry conditions are forecast to continue early in the period with the SREF indicating ridging aloft breaking down as it shifts east across the Colorado Rockies tonight, and farther on into the Western High Plains Monday. Combined with a drier air mass dominating the region, limiting instability, precip chances will remain out of the forecast through Tuesday afternoon.

Temperatures tonight will be slightly warmer than this morning as departing surface high pressure gives way to a southeasterly upslope flow across western Kansas, tapping into slightly warmer air to our south. With the latest HREF showing a widespread 70-90% probability of temperatures slipping below 40F, expect lows generally down into the lower 40s(F) with a few upper 30s(F) possible more toward west central Kansas and the I-70 corridor. For Monday, prevailing southerlies will enhance warm air advection into western Kansas ahead of a slowly approaching cold front from the north, pushing H85 temperatures up into the mid/upper teens(C). Look for widespread highs in the 70s(F) with the HREF showing a 40-60% probability of temperatures topping 70F in west central and central Kansas to better than 90% of above 70F elsewhere. Similar temperatures can be expected Tuesday as projected stalled front begins to lift back north.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1109 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through early Monday. Light and variable winds through mid/late afternoon are forecast to turn southeasterly 5 to 15kt generally after 23-01Z this evening as surface high pressure in eastern Kansas pushes off to the east.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Deepening surface low pressure in southeast Colorado will create a tightening pressure gradient across southwest Kansas Monday, resulting in gusty southwest winds developing by early afternoon. Combined with a downslope enhanced drier air mass dropping relative humidity levels below 15 percent, this will produce critical fire weather conditions across much of southwest Kansas. The current Fire Weather Watch will be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning this afternoon.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for KSZ061>063-074>077-084>087.