textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginally severe storms may impact far southwest Kansas late tonight

- Weak "cool front" moves through late tonight into the morning hours

- Near normal temperatures over the weekend, hot again next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1103 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

There are a few ways to continue saying that the synoptic pattern aloft remains unchanged with a large and blocked high pressure system situated over the south-central CONUS. Despite this a lower- level low pressure system is still present in northeast Colorado and enabling convection along the western Great Plains. This is the only convection, and pressingly notable weather, for the near future for the CWA. Outside of normally seasonal heat, impactful weather is not forecast currently.

Looking at tonights convection, it comes in two parts. The first is currently ongoing in extreme SW Kansas and into the panhandles. Outside of in the Oklahoma panhandle, no strong winds (>45 mph) have been reported It is expected to stay that way unless a stronger cell is able to initiate, or a portion of organized convection can develop a cold pool. At least for the time being, neither of these things are expected to develop. With only modest CAPE and shear (750 J/kg and 30 KTs), the severe threat is limited with most of the storms trending downward. The second mode of storms tonight comes with an MCS and associated cold front coming out of Nebraska. Model runs in the previous days suggested that the complex could clip Hays, but the last 24 hours, CAM runs have trended away from that greatly. However, some CAMs have varying amounts of convection initiating along the southwestern flank that may extend into the forecast area near Hays. This will warrant monitoring for severe potential, however runs into the same problem as the rest of the convection with not the most supportive environment. Once the storms dissolve and the cold front passes through later tonight, the pattern becomes benign.

This weekend's highs behind the cold front is forecast to be in the 90s. Into next week, highs will tick up back towards the 100 degree mark. The apparent temperatures on Thursday/Friday rise up towards the 102-105 degree line, and may require a Heat Advisory. This is especially true as the long-ranged ensembles have been a few degrees too cool with this pattern. If the previous few weeks continue in this manner. Apparent temperatures as hot as 110 degrees are possible in the southeastern zones near the Oklahoma border. The same long ranged ensembles tease a low probability of precipitation on Wednesday night strictly near the Colorado border. With the low chances (<20%) and temporal uncertainty, it is just something to be aware of at this stage.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1129 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Currently isolated convection blankets SW Kansas. This convection is forecast to trend downward over the coming hours. While the impact on all sites can not be ruled out, only LBL has a 30% chance to see storms, thus the PROB30 group. Even then, impact will be brief and minimal. Later tonight into the morning, a weak cold front is forecast to pass through shifting winds out of the north at 10-15 KTs. Other than the convection, VFR conditions are expected to prevail for all sites.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.