textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms will continue Thursday, with some storms producing large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rain with continued flooding potential.

- Rain coverage begins decreasing Friday, but a few more strong to severe thunderstorms are possible.

- An abrupt pattern change is expected Saturday through Monday, with dry weather, much hotter afternoons near 100 degrees, and strong south winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Midday radar/satellite imagery highlighted a strong mesoscale convective system (MCS) exiting the southeast zones. This MCS produced widespread, impressive flooding rainfall roughly along a Scott City-Dighton-Jetmore-Kinsley-Pratt line.

Afternoon thunderstorm redevelopment will focus on the southwest zones and adjacent to Oklahoma, as the MCS outflow sags southwest and modifies, intersecting the strong stationary frontal boundary. Mesoanalysis shows CAPE already surpassing 3000 J/kg in this Johnson-Liberal-Ashland corridor. Moisture convergence should initiate new storms after 3 pm. Instability and shear profiles will support supercells, and any sustained supercell that can track parallel to the outflow/frontal boundaries will have enhanced storm relative helicity and related tornado potential. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to linger into the evening hours, favoring the southern zones adjacent to Oklahoma. Frontal boundary will make progress south overnight, with light northeast winds prevailing. Widespread low stratus is expected after midnight through Friday morning.

The pattern change toward much drier weather begins Friday, with most locations remaining dry. Weak cool high pressure surface ridging will persit through midday Friday, with light easterly winds, then light southeast winds in the afternoon. This cooler surface air will limit instability across SW KS significantly Friday, and models align with this thinking, keeping most convection west through south of SW KS Friday afternoon/evening. As such, afternoon temperatures Friday will remain well below late June normals.

The abrupt pattern change is expected Saturday, as strong troughing settles into the Pacific Northwest. This synoptic change will strengthen SWly midlevel flow over SW KS, and deepen lee cyclogenesis to near 990 mb over eastern Colorado. Strong south winds will result, averaging 20-30 mph Saturday afternoon. Models show dramatic rapid warming Saturday, with 850 mb temperatures soaring to near 30C. Afternoon temperatures in the upper 90s will be common (probably only mid 90s in areas of standing water). Dewpoints will still be quite elevated across eastern zones, near 70, so a heat advisory is probable toward central Kansas. Likewise, strong instability will be present along the reestablished dryline, but a capping inversion is expected to keep all locations dry.

A pair of hot windy afternoons are expected Sunday and Monday, with afternoon temperatures of 97-103 and south winds gusting near 40 mph. Heat indices will be near heat advisory criteria, 105 degrees, each afternoon across eastern zones/central Kansas. Strong trough over the northern Rockies Sunday will pivot north with most of its energy going into Canada Monday. With a strong ridge over the Mississippi valley and the strong meridional flow, south winds will be quite strong Sunday/Monday, stronger than NBM guidance. Again, Sunday through Tuesday, instability will be present on the dryline, so an isolated thunderstorm can't be ruled out at peak heating.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1045 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Thunderstorms had ended at the airports as of 1530z, with surface observations showing widespread MVFR stratus. Flight categories should improve for several hours this afternoon. Additional scattered thunderstorms will develop after 21z Thu, but confidence on placement, and any impacts to the airports, are very low. Did not mention thunderstorms in the 18z TAFs, but LBL/DDC stand the best chance of having a thunderstorm in the vicinity later today. Northeast winds will prevail through this TAF period, mainly less than 20 kts. High confidence of IFR/LIFR stratus will overspread the airports through 12z Fri.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ030-031-043>046- 061>066-074>081-084>090.