textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Cloudy Sunday with increasing south winds.

- Showers and thunderstorms expected early Monday, with locally heavy rain expected, and strong to severe wind gusts possible.

- Windy warm and dry for most of SW KS Monday. Severe thunderstorms near Barber County for a few hours Monday evening.

- Very windy and much cooler with widespread rain expected Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 120 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Midday surface observations depicted widespread stratus across all of SW KS, with elevated southeast winds maintaining moisture advection. Temperatures will continue to struggle in the upper 50s and lower 60s through 4 pm, with SW KS remaining dry through 6 pm.

Stratus will continue through tonight. A strong low level jet will establish through the night, averaging near 60 mph at 2k feet. Strong moisture advection, mixing and moisture advection will hold temperatures steady within a few degrees of 60 through sunrise. This is about 25 degrees above normal for early November.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop after 6 pm across Colorado and New Mexico, in response to the first strong wave of forcing for ascent. 12z ARW offers a good solution, showing linear convection reaching near the Colorado border about midnight, then reaching the US 283 corridor (central CWA) about 3 am Monday. With a strong low level jet and related strong deep layer shear, and adequate CAPE to near 1000 J/kg, some strong to severe storms are expected overnight. Primary risk will be wind gusts of 50-60 mph, as the low level jet momentum is mixed to the ground by thunderstorm downdrafts. Given a saturated boundary layer and low LCLs, a weak tornado or two, probably embedded within any QLCS, is plausible, but certainly not likely or expected. Thunderstorms are expected to exit the southeast zones quickly Monday morning.

Primary trough axis near the Four Corners 6 am Monday will remain quite progressive, near Elkhart 6 pm Monday. The cyclone's dry slot will control most of SW KS's weather Monday, with a clearing sky, strong southwest winds, and as such, much warmer afternoon temperatures in the 70s. Most of SW KS will be dry for most of daylight Monday. A severe risk remains apparent near Barber County for a few hours Monday afternoon/evening, where storms can recover from morning convection ahead of the progressive triple point. Any severe threat across/near Barber county will be brief, before being pushed eastward quickly by the progressive trough.

Surface and midlevel cyclones will exit near Barber county Monday evening, allow a strong cold front to race southward through SW KS with intense north winds - Monday night through Tuesday morning. Despite the nocturnal timing working against mixing, northwest winds will be intense through sunrise Tuesday, easily gusting to at least 50 mph. NBM wind grids are about 5-7 kts weaker than the preferred 12z MAV guidance, especially along the preferred US 83 corridor. High wind warnings may be required.

Subsidence will prevail Tuesday behind the exiting trough, with a clearing sky, diminishing northwest winds, and cooler afternoon temperatures in the 50s. Much cooler air, much more typical for November, will arrive Wednesday morning, in the mid to upper 30s. Some areas of frost are likely in the coldest northwest zones, but incoming high pressure continues to look weak and will be of Pacific origin, continuing to work against a hard/killing freeze.

Another small weak shortwave is forecast to arrive Wednesday and Thursday. This system will be moisture starved, nonetheless some scattered rain showers are expected with the passing of this system midweek. No impacts expected.

After a pleasant fall Friday, a stronger, but dry, cold front passage is expected sometime next Saturday. This cooler air mass may be cold enough to deliver another freeze next Monday morning November 9th.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 421 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Continued lowered flight conditions are forecast with MVFR and IFR present; low ceilings at all sites and lowered visibilities with light fog/mist at DDC and GCK to start the period. By around 5Z, a line of showers with thunder possible will move through GCK and LBL and continue eastward towards HYS and DDC an hour or two later. With the precipitation, ceilings are forecast to drop lower down to potentially LIFR. Some uncertainty remains on how low the visibilities and ceilings will drop being contingent on the uncertainty of the intensity of the precipitation. Around 9-11Z the rain is forecast to leave the terminals with ceilings beginning to recover back towards MVFR. Near the midpoint of the TAF period VFR conditions are expected to work their way back at all sites with some scattered and lingering clouds possible until mostly clear skies later in the day. Winds will start out of the south at around 20 KTs gusting up to 30 KTs and slowly shift to being out of the west- southwest by the end of the period.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.