textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Much cooler with strong northwest winds Thursday.

- Even cooler Friday with some light snow possible. Any snow amounts will be minimal with little if any impact.

- Following a seasonably cool weekend, another rapid warming trend is expected Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1000 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Evening infrared satellite imagery depicted cirrus thinning out over Kansas. Surface analysis showed lee cyclogenesis over northeast Colorado, and this surface low is forecast to track into eastern Kansas by sunrise. In response, there will be a marked increase in west winds overnight through early morning, averaging 20-30 mph. This downslope compression should keep most locations above freezing tonight, in the 30s.

Associated cold front will race south through SW KS 8-10am Thursday. After frontal passage, winds will veer NWly and increase markedly. NW winds will average 25-35 mph with gusts near 45 mph for much of Thursday, then diminish rapidly after 3 pm. Increased these NW winds to the strongest guidance, just below the 90%ile of the NBM. These winds will a concern for ongoing wildfire/burnscar maintenance, especially with minimum relative humidity falling to near 20% from Liberal to Coldwater. It appears red flag conditions will be relegated to areas of Texas/Oklahoma, south of the border, but this concern will be passed along to the night shift, especially given recent wildfire activity. Did trim temperatures several degrees Thursday afternoon. 00z NAM forecasts cold advection lowering 850 mb temperatures several degrees below 0C, which should hold most locations in the 40s to near 50. This will feel cold, but it has been a very mild February. If DDC remains below 50 Thursday, it will be the coolest day we have seen this month.

Winds will diminish to light and variable Thursday night and Friday morning, and with limited cloud cover, strong radiational cooling will send most locales to the teens sunrise Friday.

The next shortwave near Grand Canyon, Arizona 6 am Friday will arrive in SW KS around 6 pm Friday, with at least an increase in clouds. Most models suggest forcing for ascent will be sufficient to generate light snow through Friday afternoon/night. Moisture will be limited, and NBM probability of snowfall greater than only one inch, is only 20-30% north of US 50. There is a consensus that any measurable snow would favor the northern zones, where a mesoscale band of higher accumulation may set up. At any rate, this will not be a significant winter storm. Colder air will be reinforced Friday and Saturday, with afternoon temperatures struggling to get out of the 40s both days.

Models agree cool surface high pressure ridging centered over the central plains will keep SW KS seasonably cool through Sunday. After that, high confidence in another rapid warming trend Monday and Tuesday, as broad midlevel ridging builds over the Rockies, and expands eastward onto the plains. Downslope SWly winds will encourage this warmup, with NBM forecasting lower 70s for most locations Tuesday afternoon. This leads into the Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 day outlook valid 24-28 February, with a probability of above normal temperatures near 80%. After the limited precipitation opportunity Friday, SW KS will remain dry through at least Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1139 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Strong winds will return on Thursday as a cold front moves southeast across western Kansas. Wind speeds will likely peak from 15Z to 21Z, sustained 23 to 27 knots with gusts well into the upper 30s knots to around 40 knots. Given how dry the air mass will be, VFR flight category is expected through the period. The exception will be a brief one-hour window of ceiling around 1500 to 2500 feet, tied to the initial frontal passage, but the confidence and expected duration of any ceiling lower than 3000 feet is too low to include in the TAF.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1027 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Opted to issue another red flag warning for the southern row of counties adjacent to Oklahoma for Thursday. Strong northwest winds will develop after 9 am Thursday behind a cold front, averaging 20-30 mph with gusts near 40 mph. Temperatures will be much cooler Thursday, but air will still be sufficiently dry to reduce minimum relative humidity to near 20%. Given these at least elevated red flag conditions, and after coordinating with neighboring WFOs and emergency managers in the wildfire impacted counties, decided the best course of action was to keep a red flag warning going. Fire crews should pay attention to the southeast flanks of ongoing wildfires/burn scars as northwest winds increase Thursday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CST Thursday for KSZ084>090.