textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe weather risk for Tuesday and Wednesday mainly along and west of highway 283 for damaging winds and hail

- Storms could contain localized heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding can't be ruled out

- Thunderstorm chances continue through the end of the week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1227 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

05z synopsis shows a departing MCS moving through south central Kansas with another area of mid level lift in northwest Kansas which is producing a second round of scattered storms. The mid and upper level flow continues to be influenced by a stationary upper low on the CONUS-Canadian border around Montana. This is leading to southwest flow aloft and a series of shortwaves moving from the desert southwest through the central plains.

For today we should continue to see lingering convection mainly in our northeast zones from WaKeeney to Pratt as an area of 700 mb lift with a baroclinic zone and shortwave will work with marginal instability to keep storms around. These storms should be sub severe and keep the clouds in place through the morning hours. In far southwest Kansas we should receive more sunshine through the day and highs should reach into the 90s. HRRR and RRFS models show rapid destabilization along a residual outflow boundary along the Kansas-Oklahoma border by late afternoon. Surface CAPE values should reach into the 2000 J/kg range and a 700 mb shortwave moves in from the southwest to provide the lift for a complex of storms to develop along the Kansas-Colorado border. 850 mb winds will increase by late in the day and 0-6 km bulk shear values will be in the 30-40 kt range which will support large hail initially. As the thunderstorm complex grows upscale the damaging wind threat will increase. The greatest probability of severe weather looks to be roughly between the US-160 corridor and the Oklahoma border. The instability in our eastern zones will depend on how quickly the clouds clear from the morning convection and how much sun we can get. Storms should have decent PW values to work with (around 1.5 inch) and with weak flow in the mid levels storm motion should be slower. This could lead to localized heavy rain in far southwest Kansas.

Wednesday will have a similar setup to Tuesday as lingering morning convection should keep clouds in place through the late morning and then destabilization with peaks of sun should occur in the late afternoon. NAM and RAP models have a 700 mb shortwave entering from southeast Colorado in the late afternoon and another MCS developing across southwest Kansas. Main threats will be large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain.

Long term ensembles keep the mid and upper level winds out of the southwest through the end of the week and an upper low possible this weekend. This will keep more chances of rain and storms in the forecast through the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 523 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Mid level clouds will continue to be present throughout the day with some breaks in the clouds. Winds will generally be from the southeast.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.