textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm afternoons Monday and Tuesday.

- Intense southwest winds and critical wildfire danger Tuesday. Gusts to near 65 mph expected west of US 283.

- Cooling trend Thursday through Friday, bringing temperatures back to February reality.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1111 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

It will feel more like mid to late Spring across southwest Kansas Monday through Wednesday. Highs will be the warmest Tuesday and could read 30 degrees above normal in spots. It appears unlikely that we will break records, as these values are in the low to mid 80s.

For Monday, a sfc trof will fragment and bisect the FA during the day. Highs should peak in the low 70s across the north to the upper 70s across the south. The lowest afternoon relative humidity will be located across far southwest Kansas. Here, an elevated fire danger will likely exist near Elkhart. Winds would be breezy, but will not be overly strong. The strong downslope S/SW winds will continue through the overnight period. This will lead to very mild lows with values running in the 40s in the north to the 50s in the south.

Attention then turns to Tuesday. A 150 kt 250 hPa jet will swing out across the Great Plains during the day. This will lead to low level cyclogenesis with a sfc low deepening down to around 987 hPa during the day. As the low deepens, the pressure gradient will obviously tighten across the greater region. This will lead to very strong winds across western Kansas Tuesday during the day. Gusts of 58+ mph will be likely for a portion of the FA. For more information on the winds, please refer to the wind headlines that have been issued. The combination of the very strong winds, very warm highs (upper 70s to around 80F), and low afternoon relative humidity will set the stage for Red Flag conditions Tuesday. Do not burn Tuesday as any fire could become quickly out of control. Refer to the fire weather headlines that have been issued for more information. Finally, areas of blowing dust cannot be ruled out with the strong winds and the recent dry conditions that have been prevailing across southwest Kansas.

Highs Wednesday will be cooler but still above normal. Values should range from the upper 60s in the north to the lower 70s in the south. The wind will not be as strong during the day Wednesday than compared to Tuesday. Still, elevated fire danger conditions cannot be ruled out Wednesday as the relatively warm highs and breezy winds continue for the middle portion of the business week.

A cold front will finally traverse the state Thursday. The good newsis that this will put the end to the fire danger. Temperatures will cool down to closer to normal highs and lows as we head through the end of the business week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 427 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF period, with VFR/SKC and variable amounts of scattered cirrus. Winds will be light, less than 20 kts, through 06z Tue. After 06z Tue, expect increasing cirrus and southwest winds courtesy of a strong low level jet. Included low level wind shear in all TAFs starting 06z Tue.

Looking ahead, intense southwest winds will impact aviation operations at all airports just after this TAF period, on Tuesday. Strongest winds Tuesday are expected at GCK/LBL, where gusts to near 55 kts are expected by 20z Tue.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1111 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

There will be various levels of fire danger Monday through Wednesday across southwest Kansas. The fire danger will start at the elevated level Monday across far southwest Kansas. Well above normal temperatures and breezy winds will lead to elevated conditions near Elkhart. The worst and highest level of fire danger is expected Tuesday. Very strong winds, very warm temperatures, and low afternoon relative humidity will set the stage for Red Flag conditions across a larger area of the FA. Do not burn Tuesday! For Wednesday, still above normal temperatures, although with weaker winds could lead to another day of elevated fire danger conditions. For more information, see the fire weather headlines that have been issued.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ to 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ Tuesday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. High Wind Watch Tuesday afternoon for KSZ043>045-061>064- 074>078-084>088.