textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures are expected throughout the next 7 days with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s

- A stray thunderstorm may be possible during peak heating this weekend into the early part of next week. Far western Kansas looks to have the highest probability of precipitation

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1132 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

The synoptic pattern continues to be dominated by a large upper- level high over the southeastern CONUS. Nearer to the surface, RAP mesoanalysis has a weak low pressure system in eastern Colorado. This is helped provide the dynamics for weak thunderstorms in eastern Colorado/western Kansas this afternoon and evening. The cooler air from these storms will be short-lived as temperatures race back up into the upper 90s and into the triple digits Wednesday. Similar today, a few weak pop-up thunderstorms during peak heating in the afternoon across the western zones. With very little shear and CAPE in forecast soundings (<20 KTs and <1000 J/kg respectively), these storms are not anticipated to approach severe thresholds. Modest lapse rates may be supportive of gusts up to 40 mph in the strongest storms that form, but lightning will be the primary hazard. CAMs have varying solutions remaining mostly dry, but have mostly underrepresented convection in this pattern. That said, there may not be enough ingredients to overcome the CAP and remain clear. The forecasted probability of precipitation remains below 10% for any specific area.

Thursday is forecast to be a near repeat of Wednesday. Highs near and passed the 100 degree mark along with a slim chance (<10%) for weak convection in very far SW Kansas. Again in the event convection is able to materialize, it is forecast to be weak and sub-severe with very limited coverage. Friday and Saturday will continue the repetition in pattern with highs near 100 degrees with low chances (10-20%) for precipitation in the far western zones. Time will need to pass to get a better grasp on how they will materialize if at all. Looking far ahead at long-ranged ensembles, a more widespread precipitation event is hinted at next Wednesday with highs cooler in the low/mid 90s. Especially for the eastern counties, this is the next best chance for some drought relief.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1132 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for all TAF sites through the TAF period. Winds are expected out of the south at around 10-15 KTs along with clear to mostly clear skies. Models have marginal LLWS around 10-12Z especially at GCK, but it was too marginal for the TAF inclusion.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.