textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Despite a northeast wind shift, intense heat will continue Tuesday afternoon, with temperatures near 100.

- A heat advisory remains in effect for counties southeast of Dodge City Tuesday afternoon, where heat indices of 105-110 are expected. The most dangerous heat is expected across Clark, Comanche and Barber counties.

- Dry weather will continue to prevail across most of southwest Kansas through this week. Any scattered thunderstorms will favor northern zones Wednesday night and Thursday night. Many locations will remain dry.

- Heat is expected to rebuild aggressively over the upcoming weekend, with afternoon temperatures over 100 expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

The simple summer regime continues, with the strong midlevel high centered near Denver at midnight. The high is forecast to move southeast directly over SW KS Tuesday, with very strong subsidence under 597 dm heights and another very hot afternoon. NBM guidance has been persistently several degrees too cool for several days, and suspect this will continue today. Added about 2-3 degrees to the NBM Tuesday afternoon at most locations. A weak backdoor cold front is expected to be near I-70 at sunrise, and slowly backdoor its way southwestward across SW KS during the daylight hours. Elevated northeast to east winds are expected behind the frontal passage this afternoon gusting 25-30 mph. Despite this northeast wind shift and the complete absence of downslope compression, temperatures will still easily surpass 100 Tuesday afternoon, along and south of US 50. The most dangerous heat will be focused from the Red Hills eastward, including Clark, Comanche and Barber counties, where a heat advisory remains in effect Tuesday afternoon for heat indices of 105-110. After coordination with WFO AMA, added Meade county to the heat advisory this afternoon, where heat indices over 105 are expected to be common.

Several reliable CAM solutions suggest isolated/minimal convective development near the frontal boundary at peak heating (4-7 pm) Tuesday afternoon. If any updrafts can survive the strongly subsident ridge environment, some brief thunderstorms with outflow winds/dry lightning are possible with an inverted-v profile. The chances of measurable rain at any one location are 15% or less, and added minimal pops in the grids.

Models maintain continuity sliding the ridge axis southward to near the Red River Wednesday afternoon. This and a net reduction of about 3C at 850 mb will allow the heat to relax back to the 90s Wednesday, with most locations remaining less than 100. A heat advisory is not expected to be required Wednesday. Daylight Wednesday will remain dry, but limited showers and thunderstorms may skirt the northern zones Wednesday night. NBM pops are correctly limited, with most activity north of SW KS further from the ridge's subsidence. Most locations will remain dry.

Perhaps a better chance for scattered thunderstorms Thursday night, as the strong high pressure ridge remains centered over West Texas. Models project a notable shortwave on the northern periphery of the ridge entering Kansas Thursday night, with some signal for MCS generation at least across northern Kansas. NBM has increased pop grids into the likely category favoring the northwest zones Thursday evening, and this is the next best chance of measurable rain, at least north of Dodge City.

The upper high is progged by the global models to amplify significantly this weekend, with heights nearing 600 dm near and west of SW KS. The afternoon heat will rebound accordingly, above 100 all zones certainly by Sunday afternoon. GFS/MEX guidance appears too hot for this time frame, with NBM max temperatures of 100-105 Sunday more reasonable.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF period, with VFR/SKC maintained at all airports. Another round of scattered afternoon cumulus can be expected Tuesday. Light winds will prevail tonight. A dry cold front will backdoor through SW KS daylight Tuesday, with elevated northeast winds gusting 23-27 kts. Winds will trend easterly and diminish by 00z Wed.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ081-087>090.