textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong cold front will arrive during the predawn hours Sunday morning.

- Intense north/northwest winds Sunday gusting 60-70 mph and a High Wind Warning in effect. - Areas of blowing dust and difficult travel are expected Sunday.

- A hard freeze is expected Monday morning, in the teens before a very rapid warming trend is expected next week, with unseasonably warm highs expected Tuesday onward.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Current RAP mesoanalysis has an upper-level shortwave over Montana with a surface low pressure system over eastern Colorado. Ensembles have this developing and greatly deepening over the next few hours as it descends southeastward across the central CONUS. While the majority of the system, and the entire severe threat, is forecast to move east of the CWA, SW Kansas may see some precipitation and very high winds. The precipitation chances remains minimal (15-25% via ensembles) but not zero as some wrap around rain/snow falls on the backside of the system. Anywhere it occurs will likely start as rain before transitioning into snow. However regardless of type, it is forecast to be very minimal with little (<0.1") accumulations outside a potential isolated spot or two. The more pressing concerns are the very strong winds behind the front. The front is progged to descend through the CWA around 5-7 AM. A High Wind Warning is in effect for all counties from 5 AM to 9 AM CDT Sunday. Sustained winds are 40-50 mph and gusts of up to 65 and potentially isolated gusts of 70 mph out of the northwest. The highest winds may be in and around Garden City. With the front and these winds, cold air is forecast to sharply move down into the CWA. Highs Sunday are forecasted in the 30-40s. For the most part, relative humidities will see some relief, but far SW Kansas (especially Morton) could see conditions approach Red Flag Warning criteria and will need to be monitored. Additionally, with the high winds, blowing dust is forecasted CWA wide. Exactly how much, and how dense it occurs, is under some uncertainty. The dust may lower visibilities and provide more hazards to the already difficult travel conditions. Anyone traveling needs to take the proper precautions. With the winds and CAA, lows Sunday night are expected to drop down to the teens.

Beyond the excitement of Sunday, a very quiet forecast period is expected. Ensembles keep the foreseeable future dry. Even though relative humidities are expected to continue to be very low, winds beyond Sunday are not close to reaching Fire Weather Criteria. With dry quiet weather, very little else is noteworthy, especially with the severity of Sunday. After the lingering cool temperatures on Monday (highs in the 40/50s), highs will quickly warm back up to above average temperatures for this time of the year. Tuesday is forecast to have highs in the 70s before the rest of the work week is in the 80s and approaching the 90s in far SW Kansas.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 515 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Difficult flying conditions as intense surface winds through 03Z Monday as sustained winds will be 30-40 kts with gusts over 50 kts at times. Blowing dust and haze from the winds will also reduce surface visibilities to 3 miles or less. After 03Z winds should gradually relax to eventually 5-15 kts by 12Z Monday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.