textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- A thunderstorm complex is expected to impact southwest Kansas early Friday morning, with areas of locally heavy rain and strong winds, while gradually diminishing.

- A rapid heating trend is expected Friday through the weekend. Expect afternoon temperatures of 100-105 to be common both Saturday and Sunday, with some near record highs likely. An elevated risk of wildfire spread is evident Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

- Hot, above normal afternoon temperatures will continue Monday through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1125 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Late evening infrared satellite imagery depicted an impressive mesoscale convective system (MCS) entering NW KS. This MCS has shown no signs of weakening, probably a function of excellent outflow aloft per cirrus on satellite, but is just now showing some of the initial signs of weakening. The apex of the bowing segment is moving due south as of 11 pm, and will enter the northern zones through the early morning hours while gradually weakening. For short term pops, followed the general track of the latest 00z ARW solution, which has been one of the favored CAM solutions the past couple days. Increased pops greatly over the current NBM dry solution. Primary risk from storms through early morning will be outflow wind gusts of 50-60 mph north of K-96, with subsequent weakening after that and with southern extent. Current thinking is MCS will dissipate roughly over the central zones, around DDC, during the predawn hours.

All models show significant warming Friday, with a net warming of +3 to +5C at 850 mb, along with modest height rises, and much improved boundary layer mixing and stronger south winds. Lee troughing over eastern Colorado will support south winds of 20-30 mph Friday afternoon with temperatures well into the 90s.

A dry forecast is evident Friday and Saturday for all zones, as subsidence prevails. The heat will continue to intensify Saturday, with another net warming of +3C at 850 mb, and more of a SWly downslope contribution. As we have seen much of this summer, NBM guidance continues to be a few degrees too cool with these excessively hot days. Added 1-2 degrees across the board for Saturday and Sunday afternoons, with afternoon temperatures of 100-105 common both days. Heat indices will remain less than 105 Saturday, with no heat advisory planned. Apparent temperatures will be near 105 across southeast zones for a few hours Sunday afternoon, where a heat advisory will likely be required. The hottest guidance is preferred, with 00z MOS guidance in the 103-105 range for DDC, and this would threaten record highs this weekend. Strong south to southwest winds are expected each afternoon, 3-5 mph stronger than NBM guidance, and this will amplify the blow dryer, dehydration effect for people, pets and livestock outside this weekend.

Midlevel high pressure over Texas Sunday will elongate into a longer ridge axis early next week, but remained centered over the central and southern plains. As such, afternoon temperatures will remain well above normal, within a few degrees of 100 each day. Again, NBM is probably a few degrees too cool in this anomalously hot pattern for early September. Rain chances will be minimal to absent through early next week, but some limited thunderstorm activity may clip the northwest zones at peak heating each day, furthest from the subsidence of the ridge axis, and nearer enhanced SWly flow aloft.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 521 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Early morning storms will dissipate and move out of the area before 12Z and we will be left with VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period. Winds will increase after 15Z to sustained at 15 kts with gusts to 25 kts. Winds will stay breezy through 12Z Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Hotter afternoon temperatures well into the 90s will lower relative humidity to near 30% Friday afternoon, with elevated south winds of 20-30 mph.

Even hotter temperatures of 100-105 are expected Saturday and Sunday afternoons, which will lower minimum relative humidity to 20-25% both afternoons. South to southwest winds will be stronger over the weekend, gusting over 30-40 mph at times, resulting in an elevated risk of wildfire spread where fuels are available.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.