textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry for the remainder of February, with the exception of minimal chances for light rain showers Wednesday night.

- After a seasonably cool weekend, a rapid warming trend is expected Monday and Tuesday. Unseasonably warm 70s expected Tuesday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

A very quiet weather regime continued at midday with little to discuss. Infrared satellite imagery depicted a clear sky across the central and southern plains, with only a few wisps of cirrus. Strong surface high pressure ridging in excess of 1040 mb prevailed with a light wind regime. Despite the full sunshine, the lack of mixing in the cool airmass will keep many locations in the 40s this afternoon. High pressure slowly retreats eastward into eastern Kansas through sunrise Monday, allowing southeast winds to return. As such, tonight will not be as cold as last night, but still several degrees colder than normal, in the upper teens and lower 20s.

Return flow establishes Monday under a benign dry NWly midlevel flow aloft. Model relative humidity fields suggest few if any clouds, and south winds increase to 15-25 mph after 9 am. Wind fields at 850 mb support gusts near 30 mph, with excellent mixing allowing temperatures to warm as the cool air mass erodes. Models show quick warming of the lower troposphere after noon, with many locations reaching the lower 60s by 4 pm.

Models show strong warming Tuesday, despite much weaker winds and mixing. Strong warm advection is expected at 850 mb Tuesday morning, with 850 mb temperatures greater than 15C. This will allow for a quick warmup well into the 70s through midday, before a very weak dry cold front arrives late Tuesday. No changes in sensible weather Wednesday, with improving SWly downslope and prefrontal compression supporting more 70s in the afternoon. Some southwest locations will likely achieve 80 degrees.

A largely dry, Pacific cold front is scheduled to race through SW KS Wednesday evening, with strong north winds (stronger than NBM guidance) through Wednesday night. Models hint at a period of frontogenetic forcing behind the cold front Wednesday night, but moisture will be limited. NBM probability of measurable rain (QPF > 0.01 inch) is only 40%, favoring areas north and east of Dodge City. NBM probability of QPF > 0.10 inch is only near 10%. With the incoming airmass Pacific in origin, most precipitation will be rain, but some wet snowflakes may mix in early Thursday as thicknesses drop to 546 dm.

The midweek system is weak and fleeting, much too progressive for significant precipitation in SW KS during the cold season. Quiet mild weather quickly resumes Thursday, with another warming trend back into the 70s Friday. The next dry cold front passage is probable about next Saturday.

Outside of the limited rain shower opportunity Wednesday night, high confidence that SW KS will remain dry for the remainder of February.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 520 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Light winds can be expected overnight, with the prevailing wind direction becoming southeast by 12Z Monday as a surface ridge axis, currently over Central Kansas, moves toward the Mississippi Valley and surface pressures fall along the lee of the Rockies. These southerly winds will then increase during the day on Monday as the trough of low pressure over eastern Colorado deepens. Wind gusts of 25 to near 30 knots will be possible at times Monday afternoon, based on the latest BUFR soundings mixing potential. VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.