textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon and evening through Friday. Some storms may produce marginally severe hail and wind gusts. - Showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast Saturday, before mainly dry weather resumes Sunday.

- Strong south winds Saturday, strong southwest winds Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1214 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Midday surface analysis showed strong SWly winds across SW KS, gusting near 40 mph, and a cold front making progress southward across NW KS. The cold front is expected to make progress southward into northern zones 4-7 pm, with at least isolated thunderstorm development anticipated into this evening. While global models, various CAMs, and 12z NAM suggest convective initiation after 4 pm, moisture will be very limited, with dewpoints only in the lower to mid 40s and CAPE < 500 J/kg. High-based marginally organized multicell mode will be preferred, with the strongest storms producing outflow winds of 50-60 mph and hail to the size of quarters. SPC maintains 5% probability of severe wind/hail on the 1630z update.

Cold front will make some progress southward into SW KS tonight, before quickly retreating as a warm front Thursday morning. Elevated south/southwest winds will resume Thursday afternoon, strongest southeast of DDC, with afternoon temperatures in the lower 80s. Models forecast slightly improved moisture and instability Thursday, with dewpoints in the upper 40s and lower 50s, and MUCAPE < 1000 J/kg. Afternoon temperatures in the lower 80s will once again eliminate convective inhibition by 4 pm, with at least isolated thunderstorms developing. Coverage appears to be preferred along the dryline over southwest zones through Thursday evening, as well as in the vicinity of the residual boundary along/north of K-96. Again, limited instability and wind shear/forcing will limit convective mode to strong/marginally severe multicells, with again 5% wind/hail probability from SPC.

Some shower and thunderstorm activity will continue Thursday night into Friday morning, as the front is shoved back south again as a cold front. That being said, NBM pops in the 70-80% range seem too high for this time period. Friday will be significantly cooler, especially north of US 50, as the cold front sags south to near the Oklahoma border by 7 pm. Forecast follows the coolest NAM guidance, with the I-70 corridor remaining in the 50s, and 60s north of US 50. Also north of US 50, stratus and drizzle may persist much of Friday, as eluded to with NAM's classic light QPF drizzle signature. Temperatures will struggle Friday where stratus and drizzle prevail.

Friday evening, thunderstorm redevelopment will be focused on a triple point front/dryline intersection in the SE Colorado, far SW KS, NW panhandles region, as well as eastward along the frontal boundary in the vicinity of the Oklahoma border. NBM chance category pops remain appropriate, along with continued marginal hail/wind 5% severe SPC probability. The potential for supercell structures should improve Friday for these southern zones, with dewpoints improving into the 50s, NAM forecasting CAPE > 2000 J/kg, and better upper jet support on the eastern periphery of the trough centered near California.

NBM pops remain in the likely category through Saturday, supported by MEX guidance (pops near 70%). However, global models and many of their ensemble members suggests the most widespread showers and thunderstorms will favor western Texas Saturday, and again am concerned NBM pops Saturday are too high. Regardless, can't rule out strong to severe thunderstorms Saturday, as the initial shortwave ejects onto the plains, interacting with at least a diffuse dryline. Strong south winds Saturday will give way to strong southwest winds Sunday, as the first wave ejects, and a subsident dry slot invades SW KS. Thinking is most of SW KS will be dry for most of Sunday. Upper forcing from the Great Basin trough appears too far removed to support a higher end severe threat, but clearly any severe risk would favor the southeast zones near the dryline Sunday, along the lines of SPC Day 5 outlook.

Model guidance agrees the primary trough will eject onto the plains Monday through Wednesday, early next week, but of course differ on details regarding speed and amplitude, and timing of embedded shortwaves. Still, at least some NBM pops are included, along with an inherent severe threat, pending timing of ingredients and given April climatology.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1006 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

VFR is expected to continue through this TAF period. Southwest winds will average 20-30 kts, with gusts near 35 kts, for the next several hours, then gradually diminish and back more southerly after 21z Wed. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop along a frontal boundary from HYS to GCK by 00z Thu, and along a dryline near LBL. Confidence of any thunderstorm impacting an airport directly are low, but there was enough evidence to include a VCTS/CB mention in the TAFs for a few hours this evening. Winds will trend NEly behind the frontal boundary at HYS through tonight, before elevated south winds return to the airports Thursday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.