textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Stratus erodes from west to east Wednesday with light winds.

- Strong south winds Thursday gusting to near 50 mph.

- Limited thunderstorm potential and coverage Thursday night, favoring the southeast counties. Some storms may be severe with large hail and damaging winds.

- A strong cold front is scheduled to arrive Friday afternoon with strong north winds. Limited severe potential ahead of this cold front across eastern zones Friday afternoon.

- Much cooler Saturday, with a rapid warming trend Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1130 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Late morning satellite imagery depicted widespread stratus slowly eroding from west to east across SW KS. Expectation is for the stratus to clear most zones by 6 pm, allowing temperatures to rebound into the 60s west of US 283. A weak pressure gradient providing light and variable winds will produce a pleasant evening.

Strong cold trough is forecast to arrive in the Great Basin by 6 am Thursday, and the atmosphere will begin responding with increasing south winds overnight. Moisture advection will begin tonight, with stratus returning northwestward, and rising dewpoints, keeping all locations well above freezing. Models suggest mixing will be sufficient to keep stratus elevated above the surface with limited fog potential.

Strong longwave trough will make progress into Utah through Thursday evening. Associated strong lee cyclogenesis near Denver will produce strong to intense south winds after 10 am Thursday, with the strongest winds along the preferred US 83 corridor, including Scott City, Garden City and Liberal. Here, south winds will average 25-35 mph sustained, with gusts of 40-50 mph through Thursday afternoon. Warm/moist advection on these south winds will bring a warmer day, with 60s east and 70s west, and dewpoints climbing into the 50s east of a developing dryline. The most westward solutions of the dryline position are preferred, and will likely remain near/west of the KS/CO border through peak heating. It is rare for the dryline to remain west of SW KS in early March, but synoptically the parent trough upstream will ensure little if any eastward mixing is obtained, followed by rapidly backing SEly winds and a retreating dryline by sunset.

Confidence in thunderstorms, and any severe weather, in SW KS Thursday afternoon/evening, is decreasing. The lack of a dryline mixing eastward will remove surface convergence, and make the elevated mixed layer much more difficult to overcome. Widespread stratus is expected east of the dryline much of Thursday, and without surface heating, surface based convective initiation will not occur. The true warm sector with surface based instability is expected to remain south of SW KS as well. CAMs that allow convection to develop (12z HRRR/RRFS) strongly favor the Texas panhandle for initiation, where stronger instablity is forecast, enhanced by orographic forcing on the caprock. Any supercells in the Texas Panhandle will likely grow upscale into an MCS quickly over NW OK, perhaps clipping the southeast zones by midnight Thursday night. Both rainfall coverage and severe potential Thursday evening will strongly favor the southeast zones. Most/many zones will remain dry in SW KS Thursday night.

Models remain consistent with the longwave trough bifurcating into two shortwaves by 6 pm Friday, one burying itself southwestward into a closed cutoff, and the other ejecting through the central plains through Friday evening. Around sunrise Friday, surface cyclone should be in/near SW KS, with areas of stratus/fog/drizzle in the warm sector. Through 6 pm Friday, dryline will mix eastward to the eastern zones, while a strong cold front races into the northern zones by 3 pm Friday. The resulting triple point intersection will be a favored area for convective initiation at peak heating Friday, with 12z NAM suggesting the northeast zones near Hays being favored. Any storms that develop in the DDC CWA will spread rapidly into central Kansas Friday evening by the surging cold front. The cold front is expected to clear the Oklahoma border no later than 7-8 pm Friday.

Strong north winds are expected Friday night/early Saturday (stronger than NBM), as 1030 mb high pressure builds south through the Rockies. North winds diminish rapidly Saturday, along with full sunshine, but afternoon temperatures will be reduced to the noticeably cooler 50s. Dry weather and a rapid warming trend is expected Sunday through Monday, as the cutoff cyclone meanders near Baja California. NBM continues to forecast near record highs in the lower 80s Monday afternoon.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1010 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Surface observations and satellite imagery at 16z Wed depicted widespread IFR/LIFR stratus, with fog still reducing visibility at GCK. Expectation is for stratus to erode west to east over the next several hours, with VFR/SKC returning. Excellent flying weather is expected this afternoon through much of tonight, with VFR/SKC and light winds. After 12z Thu, stratus is expected to return along with increasing S/SE winds. Models disagree how quickly stratus spreads northwestward Thursday morning, with at least MVFR stratus most likely at DDC/LBL by 15z Thu. Strong south winds are expected just after this TAF period, after 18z Thu, gusting 35-45 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1137 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Confidence is not high that the dryline will be able to mix eastward into far western Kansas Thursday afternoon. Relative humidity will plummet to near 15% west of the dryline, and this much drier air may intrude into portions of Hamilton, Stanton and Morton counties for a few hours Thursday afternoon. High confidence of strong to intense south to southwest winds Thursday afternoon, with gusts over 40 mph expected. Where these winds and low relative humidity overlap, critical wildfire conditions will develop. Red flag criteria may remain in Colorado, but opted to issue a fire weather watch for Hamilton, Stanton and Morton counties for now.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ061-074-084.