textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Cloudy and dramatically cooler Friday, with afternoon temperatures in the 40s and 50s.

- Low clouds, drizzle and areas of fog Friday night through Saturday morning. Some scattered thunderstorms overnight may produce marginally severe hail.

- Strong south winds, warmer and more humid Saturday. Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms possible.

- Strong southwest winds Sunday, sunny, windy and warmer, with any severe storms southeast of Dodge City.

- Dry warm and windy with critical wildfire danger Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Midday surface analysis confirmed the outflow-reinforced cold front had cleared the Oklahoma border, with widespread stratus and northeast winds prevailing in the post frontal environment. Stratus is expected to largely hold through sunset, and temperatures will spend the day struggling in the 40s at most locations. Coldest NAM is verifying well, with only some locations achieving lower 50s. Areas of drizzle are possible, but measurable rain is unlikely through sunset, once rain exits the southeast counties this morning.

Thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop southwest and south of SW KS Friday afternoon/evening, along the frontal boundary. This activity will remain southwest of SW KS, but 12z NAM does suggest drizzle will become more likely after sunset as a warm advection regime organizes north of the frontal boundary. Obviously surface based instability has been erased in SW KS in the low level cold air, but 12z NAM is quite aggressive increasing elevated MUCAPE to as high as 2000 J/kg tonight. Any elevated thunderstorms in tonight's environment would produce small to marginally severe hail easily, and the marginal 5% hail probability is maintained by SPC. Areas of fog and widespread stratus will persist through sunrise Saturday, with light and variable winds trending southeast by morning.

Strong south winds are expected Saturday, with strong warm/moist advection, in response to strong lee cyclogenesis near Black Hills, South Dakota. After noon, south winds will average near 25 mph sustained, with gusts to near 40 mph. Continued moisture advection will increase dewpoints well into the 50s, and with warmer temperatures in the 70s, surface based instability will return with SBCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg by afternoon. At least isolated showers and thunderstorms could develop just about anywhere anytime in this airmass, but with focusing mechanisms nebulous, kept pops restricted to the lower end chance category. Strongest storms Saturday may produce marginally severe hail and wind gusts, but models have consistently shown the most significant severe will remain south of SW KS, in west Texas.

The dryline is forecast to mix to the eastern zones or central Kansas Sunday. Behind the dryline, sunshine will return, and with strong SWly downslope winds, temperatures will soar into the 80s. MOS wind guidance is stronger than NBM, with expected winds averaging 20-30 mph. Instability will persist across the southeast zones, southeast of Dodge City, where thunderstorm initiation is possible at peak heating Sunday. Convergence may not be sufficient on the dryline for storms to form, and the dryline may be east of Barber county anyway.

The primary longwave trough will still be back over the Great Basin 7 pm Monday, and with strong SWly midlevel flow, dry windy unseasonably warm weather will result. NBM max temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 will combine with dry air and southwest winds gusting near 40 mph to create critical wildfire risk.

After Monday, models are have difficulty with wave phasing and timing issues, as the primary trough arrives in the plains. As such, solutions are showing little continuity and confidence in predictability is low. That said, with a weakening/opening trend with the parent trough, confidence is fairly high the dryline will be east of SW KS through this time, which will keep dry SW winds prevailing, and continue the wildfire danger per SPC fire weather outlooks. Dry forecast from the NBM Monday and Tuesday looks appropriate.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1010 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

High confidence poor flying conditions will prevail through this TAF period, with widespread IFR/LIFR stratus persisting. Reduced visibility in BR/FG/DZ can be expected at times, especially 06-12z Sat, and lowered visibility down to 1 sm in the TAFs. Scattered thunderstorms over southeast Colorado Friday evening will move northeast over SW KS overnight, and included VCTS/CB mentions to cover. VFR is forecast to return after 15z Sat, but broken to overcast midlevel clouds will persist. After 15z Sat, strong south winds are expected at all airports, gusting 35-40 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1221 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

A strong storm system will develop across the Southwest Sunday and move across the plains by Tuesday, with near critical to critical fire weather expected all three days. High-end fire weather is possible Tuesday as a strong southwesterly dry intrusion develops in the warm sector of a strong surface low pressure area. However, this is dependent on the exact timing of the dry intrusion. Given that this is several days out, uncertainty is high.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.