textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Significant arctic air outbreak still on track, which will begin Friday morning. A long period of temperatures below +10F is increasingly likely from mid to late day Friday through midday Sunday.

- Minimum wind chill values as cold as -20F is likely for much of our southwest Kansas region (most likely on Saturday).

- Widespread moderate to heavy snowfall accumulations in excess of 4 inches is increasingly likely. Latest NBM run shows aggressive snowfall accumulations with 25th percentile amounts of 7+ inches south of a Dodge City to Pratt line.

- Winter Storm Watch is in effect from Friday morning through late Saturday Night for official forecast of 5+ inches of total snowfall for Meade, Dodge City, Kinsley, Pratt, and points southeast of this line.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 406 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

A major winter storm and arctic air outbreak will be the primary focus of this discussion. A large scale arctic circulation across Canada and the northern CONUS will interact with a warmer, southern stream jet/upper low off the coast of California as of very early Wednesday morning. These two meteorological features will at least partially phase together over the western CONUS over the next couple of days as an anomalously large reservoir of extremely cold air awaits up north ready to spill south. All global models and their associated ensemble systems appear to be lining up towards a large scale, high impact meteorological event which will grip much of the southeastern one third to one half of the CONUS as far as the precipitation component is concerned. These far-reaching impacts are expected to include our southwestern Kansas region in terms of accumulating snow and dangerously cold temperatures.

On this shift, there was solid collaboration among many of the local field offices involved, along with the NWS Weather Prediction Center (WPC) in order to paint a complete picture of what is to come. The next two days will be fine in terms of temperature and winds, so there is time to prepare for winter impacts which will begin late Thursday Night/early Friday morning. This is the time frame when the first push of arctic air will overspread Kansas. As was mentioned in last night's discussion, models (and resulting NBM) were continuing to play catch up to the magnitude of the extremely cold air mass. Given this, we (and neighboring WFOs) agreed to pretty much run with 25th percentile NBM for temperatures through the duration of this arctic outbreak. The result for the official forecast is a continued lowering trend in temperatures Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. We are now expecting afternoon temperatures Friday to top out around 8 to 10 degrees (F) along/north of the Arkansas River. Using Dodge City as an example forecast point, once we see temperatures fall below 10F (actual air temperature!) on Friday, we will most likely not rise above 10F for another 48 hours or so. In fact, it is quite possible we may barely make it above 0F during the daytime hours Saturday -- maximum air temperature for the daytime hours of +2F is well within the NBM envelope at around the 20th percentile as of the 07Z run of the NBM. With air temperatures this low, it will not take much wind to drive the wind chill index well down into the -15 to - 20F range. At some point, we will probably need to hoist an Extreme Cold Watch for -20F wind chill but we held off on this shift given it's still three days out.

Now on to the snow. Just as models have continued to gradually trend colder with each run, the global models and ensemble systems have gradually trended upward in QPF, as a quasi-stationary mid level frontal zone extends across western Kansas with a fairly prolonged period of saturated southwesterly winds impinge on this mid level frontal zone -- ahead of the approaching southern stream upper low as it begins to fully phase with the arctic longwave gyre. As the southern stream system lifts northeast during the phasing process on Saturday, a deformation axis is likely to become focused across southern Kansas, and this would likely increase snowfall rates. Both the latest 00Z runs of the ECMWF and Canadian model control members suggest this deformation axis farther north than the GFS, which increases confidence in higher QPF and subsequent snowfall total across south central and southwest Kansas. The 07Z run of the NBM, which incorporates the latest global ensemble systems, now has a 50th percentile 72-hr QPF of 0.25" to 0.35" across much of our forecast area east/southeast of Hugoton-Garden City-Garden City line. Even higher QPF of 0.40" (NBM 50th percentile) extends southeast of roughly Meade-Dodge City-Larned. Given how cold the lower troposphere will be, the snow-to-liquid ratios (SLR) will be higher the climatological normal for southwest Kansas at roughly 15:1 to 18:1.

If we use an average of 15:1 for the entire event, and the aforementioned QPF values, we arrive at rather hefty snowfall totals well in excess of 4 inches for the southeastern two-thirds of the DDC CWA. 0.45" QPF at 15:1 would be 6.8" inches of snow. After collaboration with WFO Wichita, WFO Amarillo, and the WPC via collaboration call, we have hoisted a Winter Storm Watch covering Meade to Dodge City to Kinsley to Pratt and points south and east beginning Friday morning. Since we are still a couple days out, we decided to just "limp in" to the watch given more uncertainty farther north, but it is entirely possible the day shift may need to expand this watch in area if there is even greater consensus in widespread 5"+ snows. Regardless, a high-impact weather event is forecast for a large portion of our forecast area and points south and east into Oklahoma and the Southern Plains. If there is good news, it is that our region will remain far enough north that we will not be dealing with any freezing rain/ice storm. By Sunday, the storm will be by southwest Kansas, but it will be a slow recovery back to "normal" winter temperatures by our southwest Kansas standards.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1027 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected for all TAF sites through the period with a high centered overhead. Winds (5-15 KTs) will start from the southwest, vary greatly in the middle of the TAF period due to the high, and then settle from the southeast. Sky cover is forecast to creep into the end of the TAF period, but with high ceilings no impacts are expected.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through late Saturday night for KSZ064>066-077>081-087>090.