textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooling trend will continue today and tomorrow as highs will be in the 90s to low 100s today, and the 80s to low 90s tomorrow.

- Thunderstorms are possible both today and tomorrow, with a slightly stronger signal for severe wind gust potential west of US-83 this evening.

- Temperatures will be mild next business week, with highs in the 80s and 90s for most.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1130 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Late evening KDDC radar observations show the decaying remnants of another marginally severe thunderstorm complex are scattered over our western zones, with an outflow boundary racing eastward. This activity will continue to taper off through the rest of the evening as the boundary layer stabilizes, and the majority of the overnight period will be quiet with lows dropping into the mid-60s northwest to the mid 70s southeast. Daytime Saturday, short range ensembles indicate an upper level ridge over the southeastern CONUS will remain nearly stationary, with southwesterly flow upstream over the central plains. Given the consecutive evenings with considerable rainfall that have reinforced a cool airmass over southwest KS, another few degrees will be shaved off afternoon temperatures with highs in the upper 80s/low 90s northwest to the low 100s southeast. HREF members all suggest thunderstorms are likely in our area for the third consecutive evening, depicting convection initiating in southeast CO and growing upscale into a loosely organized cluster as it crosses into southwest KS. Models are showing a slightly higher degree of organization as this complex moves through our western zones, and this is consistent with marginally stronger deep-layer wind shear of 25-30 kts. As a result, severe wind gusts may be modestly more common Saturday evening, favoring areas west of US-83.

Daytime Sunday, medium range ensembles agree the upper level ridge will begin to retrograde, reaching the southern plains by 06Z Monday. Despite the ridge drawing nearer to the central plains, partly to mostly cloudy skies and recent precipitation will engender a noticeably cooler afternoon as temperatures only peak in the low to mid 80s, save for the southeast zones who are expected to reach the low 90s. Yet another round of late afternoon/early evening thunderstorms are possible, once again posing an isolated damaging wind gust risk.

Monday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles suggest the upper level ridge will remain flat over the southern CONUS through at least mid-business week, but begin to build northward into the Intermountain West on Thursday and Friday. This synoptic pattern evolution will keep afternoon temperatures in the 80s and 90s through Friday, along with precipitation chances favoring Monday and Wednesday afternoon/evening.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Aviation weather will deteriorate later this evening as a fairly well-organized mesoscale convective system (MCS) matures and moves northeast across much of southwest and west central Kansas. There is high enough confidence in specific airport impacts (especially GCK and HYS) to include a prevailing thunderstorm group with at least a vicinity thunder group at LBL and DDC for a two to four hour period later this evening. Strong westerly winds in excess of 40 knots in gusts will be likely at the leading edge of the MCS. Conditions will likely improve after 09Z as the MCS moves deeper into central and northern Kansas.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.