textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- More scattered thunderstorms Friday evening; some may be severe with large hail and damaging winds.

- Most of Independence Day will be dry. Scattered thunderstorms are expected Saturday night, favoring areas northeast of Dodge City. Some storms may be severe and impact outdoor holiday activities and fireworks displays.

- About 5 degrees less hot Sunday behind a weak cold front.

- Typical summer weather early next week; typical afternoon heat in the 90s, with isolated thunderstorms at peak heating each day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Midday satellite/radar imagery indicated the remnants of the Nebraska morning mesoscale convective system across NE Kansas. This complex has pushed an outflow boundary southward into SW KS, evident on radar/satellite/surface observations. Gravity waves were also propogating south, clearly evident on radar and satellite imagery. Midday mesoanalysis outlined strong instability building rapidly across southwest zones, with MLCAPE already reaching 3000 J/kg at midday. 12z NAM/ARW, both of which performed exceptionally well with convective placement Thursday, both show convective initiation favoring the southwest zones (southwest of DDC) after 4 pm, progressing eastward into the central counties through early evening. Just like yesterday, primary risk will be strong/damaging outflow winds of 60-70 mph from linear segments in a well mixed boundary layer. Before that happens, there may be a 1-2 hour window of supercell structures with related 1-2 inch diameter hail potential, particularly with the remnant outflow boundary settling over the region, enhancing storm relative helicity at least locally. SPC continues with 5% marginal wind/hail probability, but an upgrade to slight risk may become necessary for the central/southwest zones should the ARW/NAM verify again. Just like yesterday, storms are expected to dissipate rapidly around sunset.

Most of Independence Day will feature quiet, typical summer weather with hot afternoon temperatures well into the 90s to near 100. Barber County will be near heat advisory criteria (105) for the peak heating hours, but after coordinating with WFOs Wichita/Norman, will punt this possible issuance to tonight's shift. Regardless, the heat will be an impact Saturday given the outdoor holiday activities. Notably, much less wind is forecast Saturday, which will decrease evaporative cooling for those outdoors. Remember the importance of water hydration, even if you are not thirsty.

A stronger convective signal remains apparent Saturday evening, after 7 pm, as a shortwave rounds the northeast periphery of the strengthening upper high over New Mexico. Model guidance has shown some consistency favoring the northeast zones, northeast of Dodge City, for most of this activity. A weak composite outflow/cold front boundary sagging southward will contribute upslope easterly components, increasing moisture and shear availability, favoring storm organization. At least marginally severe wind/hail is probable from any storms Saturday night, and very importantly, given the outdoor activity impacts, dangerous cloud to ground lightning will be common. Thunderstorms are expected to impact at least some of the fireworks displays across Kansas Saturday night; have several ways to receive warnings, and seek shelter indoors if storms approach. NBM pop grids continue to favor the northeast/east zones Saturday night.

Although it will hardly be noticeable, models remain consistent showing about 5 degrees of cooling on Sunday behind the weak boundary passage. Light northeast winds Sunday will trim afternoon temperatures back to within a few degrees of 90, but humidity will remain uncomfortably high.

Quiet weather typical of summer is expected early next week, with a slow warming trend upward through the 90s. With the subtropical upper high relocated to the SW US by then, will eventually have to monitor for storms arriving from the Rockies, especially at night, in the new NWly flow aloft. This synoptic setup appears favored Wednesday and Thursday, and NBM pops correctly reflect this change in pattern by midweek.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1001 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

VFR will continue to prevail through this TAF period. Elevated to strong south winds are expected at all airports through 00z Sat, gusting near 30 kts. Once again, scattered thunderstorms are expected after 21z Fri, and continuing through about 03z Sat before dissipating. 12z models suggest storms may impact any of the airports this evening, so convective TEMPO groups were included. Outflow wind gusts to near 50 kts are possible from any storm. Storms are expected to be dissipated by 06-09z Sat.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.