textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Light freeze and widespread frost sunrise Friday.

- Several degrees cooler with increasing southeast winds Friday afternoon. - Widespread rainfall is expected late Saturday through early Sunday, with the heaviest amounts (to near 1/2 inch) along the Oklahoma border, with the lightest amounts along I-70.

- The coolest afternoon temperatures are expected on Sunday, in the 40s.

- Strong south winds will allow for a warming trend next week, with still no hard/killing freezes in sight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1220 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Fantastic fall weather continued at midday, with satellite imagery showing a perfectly clear sky persisting. Surface observations confirmed light and variable winds, and temperatures warming well above November normals, into the 60s once again.

A weak backdoor cold front currently situated across central Kansas with light northeast winds will backdoor its way into SW KS tonight through sunrise Friday. Associated weak cool surface ridging will nose its way westward tonight, with near ideal radiational cooling. Many locations will receive a light freeze (30-32) for several hours early Friday, especially northeast of Dodge City. Still, air mass will not be cold enough to support a hard/killing freeze (<28) on a widespread basis. This cooler air mass will be recirculated through SW KS on increased southeast winds Friday, with models showing 4-5C cooling at 850 mb. As such, cooler afternoon temperatures in the 50s can be expected. Full sunshine will continue east of the ridge axis for the first half of Friday, but once the ridge axis arrives/passes, mid and high clouds will increase from west to east by sunset.

Robust negatively tilted shortwave trough over the Great Basin at 6 am Saturday will quickly slide southeast and organize into a closed midlevel cyclone near northeast New Mexico 6 pm Saturday. Forcing for ascent ahead of this system will spread widespread light to moderate rain to areas south and west of Dodge City Saturday afternoon. Dynamic lift and moisture availability have been consistently forecast by the models to focus near the Oklahoma border, where the heaviest rain will fall late Saturday through early Sunday. WPC QPF guidance aligns well with the global models, showing rainfall amounts near 0.50 inch near Oklahoma, but sharply falling with northern extent, down to just trace amounts along I-70. NBM probability of QPF > 0.25 inch is near 90% across southern zones. All precipitation in Kansas will take the form of rain, with any wet snowflakes remaining in Colorado on the higher terrain.

Shortwave is quite progressive, so rain will end quickly Sunday morning. Stratus clouds will persist all day Sunday, amid lingering light moist southeast upslope, and temperatures will move little, in the 40s. The atmosphere will reach its coolest point sunrise Monday, well down into the 30s, but cloud cover is expected to hold, preventing full radiational cooling, and preventing killing freezes and any frost formation.

Light south winds return Monday, which will begin an extended slow warming trend through most of next week. South winds will increase in strength Tuesday and Wednesday, in response to the next shortwave ejecting out of the Desert Southwest. South wind magnitudes and the degree of warming appear a bit low/slow on the NBM guidance. This synoptic southerly flow regime will ensure the lack of killing freezes will continue through at least November 20th.

A much larger, stronger storm system is readily apparent in the model guidance for next weekend, November 21-22nd. This system will be a significant cyclone, probably with pre-Thanksgiving travel impacts on the plains, but it is much too early to discuss any details.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 420 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026P

Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF period, with a continuation of VFR/SKC and light winds. After 18z Fri, expect an increase in mid/high clouds, with modestly increasing southeast winds gusting 23-25 kts.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.