textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- There will be a slight chance for severe thunderstorms on Monday. Main hazards will be large hail and strong gusty winds.

- Marginal risk of isolated severe thunderstorms Tuesday west of highway 283. Main hazards will be strong gusty winds and large hail.

- Chances for thunderstorms will be possible almost daily across southwest Kansas mid to late week. Locally heavy rainfall from these storms mid week may result in local water issues.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1102 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

A 500mb trough is lifting north into Nebraska early this morning with a west to southwest flow developing across western Kansas where several weaker upper level waves evident embedded in this flow across the southwest United States. A surface low was located across south central Kansas with a surface boundary/cold front extending south of this surface low into the Panhandle of Texas.

North winds behind the cold front/surface low will become easterly tonight which will result in an increase dewpoints across southwest Kansas. With surface relative humidity values exceeding 90% and deep boundary layer moisture, low clouds and fog becoming possible after 09z tonight along and east of highway 283. Although dense fog is not currently expected it does appear that patchy fog can be expected from highway 283 eastward early Monday morning.

This return of low level moisture continues Monday as our next upper wave approaches during the day. Thunderstorms are currently expected to develop during the afternoon with thunderstorms being likely early across southwest Kansas early this evening based on late day instability and improving lift along a northward lifting surface boundary as well as a developing dryline near the Colorado border. Some storms may be severe and will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds based on forecast 0-6km shear >40 knots and mid level lapse rate >8c/km. The area most favorable for these storms will be along and north of a surface boundary that will extend from northeast Colorado into south central Kansas late day with a moisture/instability axis being located just north of this boundary. More isolated storms will also be possible further south as storms develop along a north south oriented dryline near the Oklahoma border with strong winds being the primary hazard.

After a cold frontal passage Monday night we will quickly again have moisture returning to southwest Kansas on Tuesday as a southeast upslope flow develops. In addition to this the ENS indicated IVT from the gulf developing Tuesday and continuing for several days. Subtle upper waves embedded in the southwest flow aloft will maintain a 30-60% chance of precipitation daily across some part of southwest Kansas. Weak flow aloft will limit deep shear and the overall severe weather risk, but the Storm Prediction Center has placed areas west of Highway 283 in a Marginal Risk for isolated gusty winds and hail Tuesday afternoon/night given that the shear on Tuesday may be marginal for supercells.

The main concern mid to late week may end up being locally heavy rainfall. High Precipitable Water values, more than 90% of normal, along with slow moving and scattered storm activity will elevate the risk for excessive rainfall. Given several opportunities for storms this week to move over already saturated grounds from previous storms increases the potential for localized flooding and water issues by midweek.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1102 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Northerly winds at 10 to 15 knots will gradually veer to the east by 06z Monday as surface pressures begin to fall along the lee of the Rockies. These easterly winds will begin to bring more humid air back into southwest Kansas overnight. As low level moisture improves the risk for low clouds and areas of fog will be possible east of highway 283, especially in the Hays area where better moisture return will be occurring in the surface to 850mb level. As a result was a little more pessimistic with the fog and status development at Hays with MVFR conditions becoming prevailing conditions between 09z and 15z Monday morning. Elsewhere VFR conditions are expected.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.