textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures near to above 100 are expected across the southern tier this afternoon.

- Cooler weather is on the way for Thursday in the wake of a cold front.

- There are chances for t-storms Friday and Saturday and the storms Saturday evening may be the most numerous and severe.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Western Kansas will stay along the southern edge of the westerly jet stream over the next week to then days. Individual upper level disturbances will lead to warm advection, destabilization and clusters of t-storms followed by weak cold frontal passages and periods of dry weather.

A surge of downslope flow will lead to hot and dry weather today, with highs ranging from the mid 90s north to between 100 and 105 along the southern tier. A pre-frontal wind shift will prevent areas north of Dodge City from reaching 100 degrees. Given the dryness of the air, t-storms are not forecast along the pre-frontal trough or cold front. Cooler air will arrive this evening and Thursday, with highs only in the lower 80s Thursday. Some elevated showers and t-storms can't be ruled out Thursday morning over south central Kansas.

Having been suppressed into the southern plains by the aforementioned front, lee troughing well ahead of the next upper level disturbance will lead to moisture advection and destabilization by Friday afternoon along the southern extremity of the westerlies. T-storms are possible, especially across the southern part of southwest Kansas where capping erodes with daytime heating. It remains to be seen how organized this convection will be. The next upper level disturbance will approach the plains Saturday, with the main upper level jet to the north. A front will be located somewhere across the central plains and this will be a focus for storms, probably severe, with best chances along I-70. T-storm coverage for Sunday depends on how far south the next cold front gets by afternoon. The southern tier has the best chance of storms if the front is slower; and given moderate vertical shear, these would be severe.

A brief break in t-storm chances is forecast for Monday in the wake of a cold front. However, with the southern edge of the westerlies still close by and associated surface troughing in the lee of the Rockies, a rapid moisture return will lead to additional chances for t-storms starting Tuesday.

The various ensemble suites continue to show the southern edge of the mid to high level westerlies over the central plains through next weekend, leading to a continuation of frontal passages with slightly cooler and drier air, followed by warm and moist advection and t-storm chances. And any periods of intense heat will be short-lived.

To summarize, mainly dry weather is predicted through Thursday night. The best chances for t-storms (30-70% range) are for late Saturday when an organized storm cluster seems most likely. Lower chances of storms in the 20-40% range are forecast for Friday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1136 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

A cold front will pass across the TAF sites between 15 and 18z, resulting in a wind shift to the north at 10-15 kts. Ahead of the front, low level wind shear is forecast overnight through 12z given a strong southwesterly low level jet. VFR conditions will persist.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.