textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Below normal temperatures will continue through Friday, with highs in the mid 50s to upper 60s.

- Light rain showers are probable daytime Thursday, favoring areas north of US-50 and west of US-283.

- Weather pattern flip is expected this weekend, with increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation chances likely.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Early morning water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal near zonal flow is in place across the central plains, with a compact shortwave impulse northwest of Las Vegas, NV. At the surface, weak high pressure is spread out from the central plains northward into southwest Canada. Daytime Wednesday, short range guidance agrees the aforementioned shortwave will move gradually eastward, supporting mostly cloudy skies across southwest KS. This along with light north to northeast winds and low 500-mb heights will result in another day of below normal temperatures for our area with afternoon highs in the 60s.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning, ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave trough will foster increasing probability of light rain showers from west to east. HREF members are in reasonable agreement indicating the highest probability of precipitation will reside over locations north of US-50 and west of US-283, where probability of greater than or equal to 0.1" of QPF are in the 50-80% range, but decrease with eastward and southward extent. Given little to no instability, no severe weather is expected, and precipitation should dissipate by midnight Friday morning. Otherwise, temperatures will once again be below normal with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

Friday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles agree a synoptic pattern change will occur as ridging builds west of the Rockies. Some precipitation chances will linger on Friday favoring areas near the KS/CO border as moist northeasterly upslope flow could yield some light rain showers, however increasing northwesterly upper level flow on the eastern periphery of the ridge will promote increasing temperatures and decreasing precipitation chances through early next week. There are some hints that the next synoptic wave could emerge onto the western CONUS near the end of the period which could bring another chance for precipitation around next Wednesday, but this is highly speculative given severely limited predictability at this range.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 548 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

LIFR flight category due to mid morning fog around GCK and DDC should continue through 15Z. Cloud ceilings should rise and VFR flight category will be the result for the rest of the time period. LBL and HYS should see VFR flight category for the entire time period. After 06Z tonight a storm system will bring in some light rain across western Kansas and could affect the terminals between 08-12Z.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.