textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Summertime heat will last through the workweek

- Thunderstorm complexes will move through portions of western Kansas late tonight, tomorrow night, and Thursday night

- Cooler temperatures coming on Saturday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

17Z synopsis shows an upper low rotating in western Kansas from the remnants of last night's storms which is bringing mid to high level clouds across the region. These clouds have slowed the warming trend a bit with noon temperatures in the lower 90s. A large 597 dm upper level high continues to sit across the desert southwest and southern plains. At the surface a stationary frontal boundary is roughly from Liberal to St. John with 850 mb temperatures south of the front heating into the 28 (C) range.

Tonight another thunderstorm complex is forecast to develop near the Denver metro as a shortwave develops on the northern side of the upper high. THis complex should start to move to the southeast as the upper high breaks down a bit and moves to the west. As the storms move close to the Kansas-Colorado border the area of better surface moisture should be north of the stationary boundary due to the upslope easterly winds and these storms should track into these areas which will be roughly along and north of a Johnson to Hays line. This area should also have the better mid and upper level instability with CAPE values around 2000 J/kg. That said models have been trending later into the evening and closer to midnight by the time the complex arrives and with some stability returning due to the loss of daytime heating the threat of damaging winds should diminish as the complex moves into western Kansas. Gusts to 30-40 mph are still possible as well as locally heavier rainfall. The storms should continue to weaken into early Wednesday morning as they progress towards the I-70 corridor.

Wednesday the region should be a few degrees cooler with highs in the upper 90s to near 100. The frontal boundary should move towards the Oklahoma border with the passage of the morning storms and easterly surface winds should be present all day. These winds combined with residue cloud cover will keep the intense heat at bay. Wednesday afternoon into the evening another complex of storms will develop over the front range of the Rockies and move towards western Kansas. Short term model trends have the upper level high building back through the night so these storms will have a more difficult time reaching western Kansas as areas west of highway 83 will have the best opportunity for storms (20-30%).

Thursday night into Friday morning a repeat thunderstorm setup with an upper level shortwave moving over the Colorado Rockies and a complex of storms entering into western Kansas during the overnight hours. With the position of the high in close proximity to western Kansas the core of the heat should continue to influence our highs with temperatures hovering around 100 through Friday.

Long term ensembles continue to show the high moving to the west and with northwest flow aloft slightly cooler air will be allowed to move into the central plains. Highs at this point look to be more in the lower 90s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1156 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

VFR flight category for all terminals for this time period. A thunderstorm complex is forecast to come out of Colorado this evening and affect portions of western Kansas after 03Z. VCTS is possible for GCK and HYS between 04-09Z with brief gusty winds to 30 kts possible. Thunderstorms should be weakening as they approach these terminals so the probabilities are lower that 30% either terminal will be affected. A weak frontal boundary will be across southwest Kansas and this should keep wind speeds lower at around 5-15 kts.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ066-080-081- 086>090.