textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong post-frontal winds this morning will gradually weaken through today, but will still draw much cooler air into our area.

- Light dusting of snow is possible Friday into early Saturday, but no impacts are expected.

- Warming trend begins early next week, with highs back in the 60s/70s by Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1110 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Surface observations across southwest KS show strong north- northwesterly winds are impacting our area behind this morning's strong cold front associated with a surface low moving into the Ozarks. These winds will gradually diminish through the remainder of the morning and afternoon as surface high pressure moves into the central plains, but much cooler air in the wake of the front will drive temperatures significantly lower than we have seen all week, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid/upper 30s near I-70 to the low/mid 50s near the KS/OK border. Tonight, winds will weaken to light and variable, and combine with mostly clear skies to support Friday morning lows dipping into the teens to low 20s.

Daytime Friday, short range guidance brings another shortwave trough, embedded within the broader longwave trough over the CONUS, from the Great Basin to the central Rockies. Renewed lee cyclogenesis will take place in southeast CO/northeast NM in response, resulting in southeasterly upslope flow across our area. These factors may foster scattered light snow showers favoring the northern six counties of our CWA, however HREF probability of snowfall greater than 1" is less than 20% for all areas, save for a small portion of far northern Ellis County, so no impacts are expected. Otherwise, temperatures will generally be below normal with most locations seeing highs in the 40s. Our far southwest zones from Liberal to Johnson City and south will rise into the 50s.

Saturday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles agree the broad upper level trough will slowly be replace by longwave ridging. This synoptic evolution will engender a warming trend beginning Sunday, with afternoon highs returning to the 60s and 70s by Tuesday. In addition, precipitation chances are very low as NBM probability of QPF greater than 0.01" is less than 10% until at least early Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 513 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

VFR conditions will be most prevalent throughout the TAF period. Winds this evening will continue to diminish across the area into the overnight hours. Winds will be shifting northerly to southeasterly as a low pressure system develops across eastern Colorado. This wind shift will gradually occur between 12-18z Friday. Wind speeds will generally be 5-10 knots, increasing 10-20 knots into Friday afternoon. With this low pressure entering the area, some light snow is expected to develop after 18z. However, given the light nature of the precipitation and only marginally lower CIGs, impact to aviation is expected to be limited. Probabilities of MVFR or lower categories is low, less than 20% throughout the TAF period.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.