textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Colder temperatures Sunday behind shallow cold front with highs ranging mid 50s Elkhart to upper 30s Hays

- Numerous showers and thunderstorms likely to remain just east of our eastern counties (across eastern half of Kansas) Sunday

- Another storm system Tuesday to bring highest precipitation chances (20-30%) along I-70 corridor.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1237 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Several storm systems will be moving out across the central CONUS over the next week, but given how progressive the overall large scale pattern will be, southwest Kansas is likely to miss out on appreciable precipitation. The first storm system coming out on Sunday will tap into low level gulf moisture, with some weak MUCAPE, resulting in a blossoming of showers and thunderstorms beginning around midday. The latest consensus among models and ensemble systems is the westernmost extent of first shower/thunderstorm development will be just east of our eastern counties, so we will keep POPs below mentionable (less than 15%) even from Ellis down to Pratt County. The main challenge will be daytime temperatures as a shallow cold air mass will move in later this evening. Once this colder air mass wedges into western Kansas, it will be difficult to erode. We have followed a roughly 50/50 blend of 10th and 25th percentile NBM temperatures for Sunday, which results in highs generally lower to mid 40s across much of southwest and west central Kansas (exceptions 57F at Elkhart and 38 up at Hays).

Monday will be another tricky day for temperatures as the return south-southeasterly winds will be recirculating the modified cold air mass, so eastern counties will likely struggle to escape the 40s while Elkhart is likely to enjoy afternoon temperatures well into the 60s. Looking deeper into next week, the next low pressure system will take aim on Kansas Tuesday, but again, the low amplitude progressive nature of this wave will likely keep southwest Kansas away from highest precipitation potential, with best chances in the north (20-30 POPs along I-70). A much deeper and large scale trough axis will develop out west later in the week extending into the next weekend, but global models and ensemble systems are highly variable in how that will evolve as it moves east across the central CONUS, so the forecast beyond Thursday will likely undergo quite a bit of a change as synoptic details become a bit more clear.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1016 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Aviation weather will continue to be quite tranquil. Northerly winds this afternoon will slowly shift to easterly overnight tonight, but wind speeds will generally be 12 knots or less tonight. Toward the end of this TAF period mid-late morning Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will develop across central and eastern Kansas, but at this time, it looks like our southwest and west central Kansas terminals will remain far enough west in the drier air mass, so aviation weather will likely remain good with VFR flight category prevailing.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.