textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold front will lower Saturday highs

- Sunday and Monday will warm back up into the 70/80s

- Precipitation potential, especially for the eastern zones, return middle of next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The synoptic forecast is on track with the upper-level low situated over the Four Corners region this evening. The system's dryline ended up positioning too far eastward for storms to develop in the CWA this evenings, this has left a quiet night weather-wise for SW Kansas. The cold front is sweeping through sharply shifting winds from the north and dropping temperatures around 15 degrees. Lows tonight are forecast in the 20/30s and result in a cooler Saturday. Beyond Saturday, a weekend warm up is expected with otherwise tranquil weather. Dry air through the stretch as Saturday highs heat up to approach the 60s, 70s on Sunday, and pushing into the 80s on Monday. Despite having lower relative humidities, especially Sunday and Monday, winds are forecast to be light enough that there is not a pressing fire weather concern nor the expectation of issuing fire weather headlines.

Ensembles show the current system having the low splitting and developing a closed low near the CONUS/Mexico border while zonal flow takes over the rest of the country. Ensembles then have the closed low ejecting early midweek around Tuesday. This will be the next opportunity for impactful weather. As with most systems that follow a similar pattern hinge on where the dryslot is and how progressive the system becomes. Ensembles keep precipitation nearly limited to east of highway 283 at 40-60%. With lots of variability, not much can be gleaned other than general trends (which has become slightly more favorable). However, declarations on severe potential is almost zero other than the best chances being the eastern edge of the CWA if at all. After the system Tuesday/Wednesday, the forecast is expected to return to a quiet and dry pattern for the rest of the forecast period and beyond.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1054 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

A strong north wind will be present at all sites for the majority of the period. By around 23Z, winds will shift to a light and variable regime. The only potential impact to lower flight conditions is lowered ceilings at HYS. However, ensembles keep these chances below 25% so they are excluded from the TAFs.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.