textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Near critical or critical fire weather conditions expected across portions of southwest Kansas Monday afternoon. Area of greatest concern will be near and east of a Garden City to Hugoton line.

- Persistent Unseasonably Warm Temperatures and Gusty Winds. Unseasonably warm air will keep temperatures 15 to around 20 degrees above normal for this time of year through at least Thursday.

- Dangerous Fire Weather Risk Midweek Near critical to critical fire weather conditions are expected on Wednesday and Thursday.

- Next chance for Thunderstorms will be Wednesday and Thursday. A few severe thunderstorms will be possible should storms develop, especially across south central Kansas on Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1134 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Earlier this morning a west to northwesterly flow was present across the Central United States. An upper level ridge was slowly crossing the western United States and an upper level trough was crossing the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. At the surface a cold front extended from northeast Colorado into Iowa, and a trough of low pressure was located across eastern Colorado. Temperatures at the 850mb level were around 10C warmer than 24 hours earlier.

Models today remain in good agreement and run to run agreement showing these 850mb temperatures warming into the teens today and lingering through at least Thursday as improving downslope flow develops ahead of the western United States upper ridge as it moves east across the Rockies and out into the Plains. This ongoing unseasonably warm air across western Kansas will continue to keep temperatures 10 to 20F above seasonal normal over the next several days.

In addition to these unseasonably warm temperatures, gusty south winds will continue on Monday. These winds are in response to the deepening lee trough over southeastern Colorado, and mixing potential. The latest guidance shows a 50-70% chance for wind gusts to exceed 30 mph at times Monday afternoon. This raises concerns for dangerous fire weather conditions if humidity values can fall back to 15% or less, as they have done over the last few days. On Monday however the developing southerly winds will draw more humid air back into southwest Kansas so humidity values are not expected to be as low as what was seen over the weekend. Still an overlap of humidity values near 15% and gusty south winds is forecast to occur from the Elkhart area to Garden City to near Hays. In this area near critical or critical fire weather conditions will be possible at times Monday afternoon (40-60%). Currently based on the latest short term models it appears that within this are the most favorable location for Red Flag Warning conditions Monday afternoon will be from Garden City south/southwest to the Cimarron Grasslands. These will be marginal conditions but at this time given the trend in lower low level moisture spreading into far western Kansas from some of the short term models am currently learning towards issuing a Red Flag Warning for this area.

Looking ahead...Fire weather conditions are expected to continue through most of the upcoming work week with the next best opportunity for near critical to critical fire weather concerns will be on Wednesday and Thursday. This is due to a developing dryline as it moves into southwest Kansas mid week. As the dryline crosses into southwest Kansas...gusty west to southwest winds are expected west of the boundary and this will bring lower dewpoints into the area. Of these two days, Thursday currently appears to be the day of greatest fire weather concern. This will be due to a strengthening mid level southwest flow developing ahead of our next approaching upper level trough and the dryline is expected location further east.

Since this period is still several days away, the exact location of the dryline remains uncertain. However, ensemble forecasts currently favor the boundary being between Highway 83 and Highway 283 on Wednesday and east of Highway 183 on Thursday. This setup suggests that the greatest area of fire weather conditions will be west of Garden City and Liberal on Wednesday, but will cover most, if not all, of southwest Kansas on Thursday.

The location of this boundary Wednesday and Thursday will not only determine fire weather concerns but also the focus for potential thunderstorms, some possibly severe, each evening as the upper level trough approaches from the west. On Wednesday, models indicate improving low level forcing developing along this boundary as dewpoints of +50 degrees spread northward ahead of it. Warm 700mb temperatures will however exist near or over the dryline. This is something to monitor given that this may inhibit thunderstorm development. If a storm or two can develop(<20%), the environment would favor that they may be severe with large hail being the main hazard. On Thursday the environment will be more favorable for thunderstorm development as a cold front moves across southwest Kansas and begins to overtake the dryline with the upper level trough exiting the Rockies and moving out into the Plains. Ensembles also forecast better shear and instability across south central Kansas late in the day (east of Highway 183), increasing the risk of severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center already outlines a 15 to 29% chance for severe weather in this area, which still looks on track.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1134 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Gusty southwest winds at 20 to 25 knots will decrease to 10 to 15 knots after sunset. The exception is the Hays area where a surface cold front will drop south of the I-70 corridor this evening resulting in lighter winds. The southerly winds will also become easterly once this surface boundary passes. These lighter winds overnight will then increase early Monday morning, with southerly winds developing at 15 to 20 knots after 15Z. VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, with high clouds today giving way to clearing skies late day and early tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1134 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Critical fire weather conditions will be possible on Monday.

Gusty southwest winds will develop over southwest Kansas on Monday as surface pressures fall along the lee of the Rockies and a surface boundary lifts north toward Nebraska. These southerly winds will bring higher dew points back into southwest Kansas during the day, but afternoon humidity values are still expected to fall to around 15% west of a line from Hays to Garden City to Hugoton. This combination will create near critical to critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon. The greatest concern is in an area from near Hays to near Garden City to the Hugoton/Elkhart line. Within this area, the lowest afternoon humidity is currently forecast to overlap with the strongest afternoon wind gusts primarily from near Garden City to the Cimarron Grasslands. As a result am leaning towards issuing a red Flag Warning for portions of extreme southwest Kansas between noon and 8 pm Monday.This event on Monday is a more marginal event then what occurred earlier this weekend so will monitor the latest CAMS and make a final call by 2pm CDT.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ063-064- 074>078-084>088.