textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably hot temperatures continue today and Tuesday.

- Thunderstorm chances (30-50%) return Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

WV imagery indicates an upper level ridge centered across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado.

Although relatively dry conditions will dominate across much of the area early in the period, minimal thunderstorm chances (<20%) cannot be ruled out near the Colorado line early in the period as the SREF indicates the aforementioned ridge axis shifting slowly east into the Central Plains, giving way to a southwesterly flow aloft across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, prevailing south- southeasterlies will support pooling moisture ahead of a lee side trough axis slowly approaching the Colorado/Kansas line, resulting in modest MUCAPE values in excess of 500 to 1000 J/kg. As a result, diurnally driven thunderstorm development is forecast across eastern Colorado in vicinity of the trough axis late this afternoon in conjunction with H5 vort maxima ejecting out of the Southern Rockies. Storms are expected to drift east-northeast toward the Kansas line during the evening. This is hinted at by the latest HREF pointing to only 10 to 20% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch in west central/extreme southwest Kansas by late evening. A similar set up exists Tuesday, though storm chances (30-50%) pick up a bit out west as an upper level shortwave trough transitions east through the Dakotas, sending an attendant cold front southeast into extreme western Kansas overnight.

Unseasonably hot temperatures are likely again today as prevailing southerlies reinforce a much warmer air mass across the area with H85 temperatures ranging from the upper 20s(C) in central Kansas to around 30C near the Colorado line. Look for widespread afternoon highs in the mid/upper 90s(F) with the HREF painting a better than 80% probability of temperatures exceeding 95F for much of the area with highs potentially topping 100F in central/south central Kansas where there is a 50-70% probability of reaching the century mark. Similar temperatures are forecast Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through the period. Light southerly winds overnight are expected to increase 15 to 25kt generally after 14-16Z as a lee side trough of low pressure slowly strengthens in eastern Colorado.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.