textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms favoring western zones, west of US Highway 283, Thursday evening. Strong to severe outflow winds are again the primary threat.

- Friday and Independence Day will feature hot afternoons, with high temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees.

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected Saturday evening and Saturday night, some of which may impact Fourth of July fireworks displays. Marginally severe wind and hail are possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Midday infrared satellite imagery depicted the persistent moisture plume across central Kansas, with midlevel clouds persisting over the eastern zones. Mesoanalysis showed instability quickly growing across western zones, already near 3000 J/kg, where strong insolation was working on a moist boundary layer. As lee cyclogenesis strengthens to near 998 mb near Denver this afternoon, south to southeast winds will increase this afternoon/evening, gusting as high as 40 mph.

With a very strong midlevel anticyclone stationary over the eastern U.S., the repetitive convective pattern we have seen the past 2 days, will repeat again this evening. 12z ARW/NAM/RRFS are in good agreement suggesting thunderstorms developing again west of US 83 to near the Colorado border 4-7 pm. It is during this late afternoon period in which temporary supercell structures may produce hail 1-2 inches in diameter west of US 83. Bulk shear is not expected to be strong enough to maintain supercells for long, with upscale growth into another complex through this evening. Latest iterations of the HRRR show damaging wind potential into the north central counties after 7 pm. After coordination with SPC, severe wind probability was increased to 15%/slight risk on the 1630z outlook. Pops were also increased significantly into the likely category for western and central zones. Strong instability and a hot deeply mixed boundary layer will support wind gusts of 60-70 mph from the strongest linear segments into this evening, with this risk highest northwest of Dodge City once again.

Stagnant upper air pattern over North America begins changing Friday, as the upper high over the east weakens, and a new upper high takes over near New Mexico. Friday will be plenty hot, easily into the upper 90s, with elevated/strong south winds yet again. Most of Friday will be dry for most, but GFS and a few CAMs do suggest thunderstorm initiation focusing on the northeast/east zones this time. Uncertainty in this summer pattern forces pops to be rather low.

Independence Day will be hot as a firecracker, with afternoon temperatures of 95-100 common, as shown by NBM. GFS/MEX appears 1-3 degrees too hot, given moist soils and healthy vegetation greenup. Most of the holiday will be dry, but there is a stronger convective signal for Saturday evening, that may impact fireworks displays. A weak frontal boundary will sag south across Kansas Saturday, as a shortwave arrives on the northeast periphery of the new upper high over New Mexico. Current thinking is this will focus scattered thunderstorms over the northeast zones, northeast of Dodge City, Saturday evening. Effective shear and instability will support storm organization, especially with the composite boundary nearby, per SPC Day 3.

Temperatures should be trimmed several degrees Sunday behind the weak frontal boundary. A nondescript pattern typical of summer is expected Monday through Wednesday, with typical afternoon heat in the 90s. Global models show 500 mb heights not becoming excessive, near 590 dm, so triple digit heat should be limited, and heat advisories appear unlikely east. Models do show southeast winds maintaining moisture through early next week, keeping at least isolated thunderstorms possible at peak heating each day.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

VFR will continue to prevail through this TAF period. Strong south to southeast winds will impact aviation operations at all airports through 00z Fri, with gusts of 30-35 kts. Once again this evening, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near/west of GCK through 00z Fri, then progress eastward through 06z Fri, with impacts possible at GCK/DDC and perhaps LBL. Included convective TEMPO groups for this activity at GCK/DDC, but kept the HYS terminal dry for now. Primary threat from any thunderstorms this evening will be outflow winds of 40-50 kts.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.