textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong cold front is sweeping through southwest Kansas tonight with strong north winds gusting over 40 mph.

- Dramatically cooler Wednesday, with strong north winds through midday. Diminishing north winds Wednesday afternoon.

- A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Thursday for every county with some areas seeing a significant fire weather risk.

- Unseasonably warm afternoons return Thursday through Saturday.

- Another strong cold front with strong north winds and much cooler air Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1121 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The marginally severe convection that produced up to ping-pong sized hail this afternoon has excited the CWA with some weak and light lingering showers persisting. The deep low pressure system sits just west of the forecast area. The corresponding cold front is the focus of the near term forecast and ensembles have it moving through around 1-3 AM tonight. As it passes, winds will sharply turn to out of the north. Winds immediately behind it may reach up to 30 mph with gusts even higher. The winds will also come with cooler air. Lows tonight are forecast in the 30s with highs in the 50s. Fire weather concerns will be present, especially in the far western counties, but the cooler temperatures at this time are forecast to keep relative humidities outside of Red Flag Warning Criteria despite the strong winds.

The same can not be said about Thursday. Highs are expected to recover with them being forecast into the 70s as a wind shift brings warmer and drier air. CWA wide relative humidity minimums are currently progged at around 10-20% with the driest air along the KS/CO border. Winds are forecast from the southwest at 20-25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect Thursday from 1-8 PM CDT. Fuels are primed and conditions are expected to present a serious fire weather risk and typical precautions should be taken.

Otherwise ensembles have Thursday seeing zonal flow develop aloft presenting a quite empty synoptic pattern for the next few days. This will not last too long with ensembles also holding a upper- level trough developing and impacting the CWA Saturday into Sunday. Another cold front is expected with the trough. This is forecasted to dramatically drop temperatures with highs on Saturday in the 80s and highs in the 50s on Sunday. It should be taken generally, but ensembles have less than a 10% chance of precipitation south of Scott City to Ness City with Hays at around a 20%. All that to say that with a dramatic forecast change, most if not all of SW Kansas will remain dry through the forecast period and beyond.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for all sites through the TAF period. A cold front will continue to descend into Kansas and bring strong northerly winds of up to 20 KTs and gusts up to 30 KTs. Skies will be mostly clear with some high based scattered clouds earlier on in the period. Winds will slowly weaken deep into the TAF period before shifting to light and variable by the end.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.