textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong southwesterly winds today; critical fire weather conditions

- Elevated to critical fire conditions Thursday

- Varying levels of convective chances this week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 103 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Strong southwesterly winds and a critical fire weather day is expected across the entire forecast area today as strong southwesterly flow will be present with the approach of trough. With efficient mixing, expect area-wide southwesterly winds 25-35 mph with gusts 25-50 mph. The strongest of the winds are expected in southwest zones. This is where travel could become rather difficult for high-profile vehicles and greatest fire spread of any potential fires. See fire weather discussion for details on the fire weather potential today and Thursday.

Precipitation chances throughout the forecast period continue to be pretty sparse. However, placement of the dry line will dictate the level of convection that could occur within our eastern forecast area this week. For today, short-range guidance is struggling with the placement of the retreating dry line early this morning, and therefore uncertainty will exist on placement throughout this afternoon. In any case, the greatest chance for any thunderstorms will be in our far east where we currently have 20-30% POPs this afternoon and into tonight. Any severe weather risk will be conditional given the low confidence of storm occurrence. However, if storms are able to develop, the primary risk would be large hail.

Another system is expected to eject into the Plains Friday, bringing our next best chance at thunderstorms. Again, dry line placement will be key and POPs are favored in our eastern zones (20-40%). Global ensembles currently have this wave ejecting with a more neutral orientation. This scenario would allow some severe convective potential. Though if this would be able to come out more negative, a higher-end severe risk could be realized. Until then for now, SPC continues to carry a 15% severe probability touching our eastern counties.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1112 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

The prolonged period of dry and warm southwest winds will continue through early this evening. Wind speeds will drop off by sunset with a gradual shift to the west or west-northwest, particularly at GCK and LBL. Light westerly winds will continue through the night, picking back up in speed mid-morning Wednesday. All four airports GCK, DDC, LBL, and HYS will remain west of the dryline, so VFR flight category will continue along with near-zero thunderstorm chances.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ061>063-074>077-084>087.