textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm afternoons and mild nights will continue through Saturday, with temperatures well above normal.

- A weak cold front passes through SW KS tonight, with an uptick in north winds, some extra clouds, and a few sprinkles.

- Much cooler, more seasonable, temperatures expected Sunday and Monday.

- Increasing opportunities for needed rainfall March 4-7th.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

A quiet weather regime continued at midday, with no hazards, headlines or impacts. Infrared satellite imagery depicted scattered cirrus embedded in the brisk NWly flow aloft. Temperatures will again easily warm well into the 70s this afternoon, supported by 850 mb temperatures near 17C, and improving SWly downslope/compression ahead of an approaching cold front.

Weak shortwave embedded in the NWly flow will race across Kansas tonight, with the associated Pacific cold front scheduled to arrive in SW KS this evening. This system is weak and moisture starved, and pops guidance has been correctly trending downward over the past several forecast cycles. Any measurable rain showers are expected to be relegated to NE KS, with only an increase in midlevel clouds across the northeast zones this evening. Reduced pops further to 15% or less along I-70, with some scattered sprinkles possible from the midlevel clouds elsewhere. A noticeable uptick in north winds will accompany the cold front passage this evening, with north winds gusting near 30 mph for a few hours this evening. Did increase these winds to the 90% ile of the NBM, but they will not last long, quickly diminishing by sunrise Thursday.

Models suggest little if any cooling behind this Pacific origin cold front Thursday. NAM/GFS show about 3-4C of cooling at 850 mb, but NWly downslope compression through the depth of the troposphere should compensate for any minimal cold air advection. Still expecting temperatures way above normal for late February, in the upper 60s and lower 70s Thursday afternoon. With several degrees of warming at 850 mb, and the return of SWly downslope, temperatures will again soar to near record levels well into the 70s Friday afternoon. Record highs for February 27th are in the lower 80s, so they are expected to remain safe, but NBM continues with a 10% probability of temperatures exceeding 80 degrees across much of SW KS. On the same unseasonably mild theme, morning low sunrise temperatures will remain well above freezing Thursday through Saturday mornings.

Much cooler air, much more typical of early March, is expected to sag/backdoor southwestward into SW KS over the weekend. Model guidance disagrees how fast this front will progress and its timing, but the overall trend is toward much colder air by Sunday and Monday. Thinking is now most of Saturday will still be unseasonably mild, before northeast winds and cold advection begin late Saturday through Sunday. NBM reflects sharp cooling Sunday, supported by 850 mb temperatures falling well below 0C.

More active weather, with the return of precipitation, is expected next week. A series of closed southern stream midlevel cyclones over the SW US are expected to eject onto the plains March 4-7th. Of course, way too early for details, but noticed NBM pops are already well into the chance category next Wednesday March 4th. Given the Pacific southern stream and a lack of cold air, confident that any precipitation next week will be rain. NBM probability of measurable rain (QPF > 0.01 inch) is already near 70% next Wednesday, and CPC probabilities of above normal precipitation next week continue to increase.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1000 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Excellent flying weather will continue to prevail through this TAF period, with VFR, variable amounts of cirrus and midlevel clouds, and generally light winds. The exception will be the 03-09z Thu time period, with a passing cold front will bring an uptick in north winds, gusting 24-27 kts. Winds will quickly diminish through 12z Thu. Midlevel clouds will be most likely at/near HYS this evening, where a few sprinkles are possible, but kept this TAF package for HYS dry.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.