textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm and dry Sunday

- Isolated to scattered severe storms possible Monday

- Continued storm chances through next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A much quieter day is expected Sunday with warm and dry conditions throughout southwest and central Kansas. In the wake of the departing trough and subsequent subsidence, temperatures will climb to around 90 for most, with mid 90s into south- central Kansas. No precipitation is expected as the more moist airmass will situate east of the forecast area. Northerly winds of 10-15 mph will start in the morning, turning more light and variable into the afternoon. Low temperatures Sunday night into Monday morning will fall into the 60s for areas east of the 83 corridor, and 50s to the west.

Monday will feature the next chance of thunderstorms into the forecast area. Flow around the southern periphery of an upper- level low, centered along the Montana and Canadian border, with easterly surface upslope flow developing, will increase thunderstorm potential into late Monday afternoon and evening. Initial convective development along the Colorado Front Range is expected to congeal into clusters and increase in coverage into western Kansas. With steep low-level lapse rates and a increasing low-level jet into the evening, a severe MCS is possible. Damaging winds will be the primary hazard in this scenario, with large, to potentially very large, hail being a secondary risk if any cells are able to remain discrete early on in the convective cycle.

For the rest of the week, continued chances for rain and thunderstorms are in the forecast. NBM POPs are about 40-70% for the remainder of the week, indicating multiple rounds of rainfall for the area. These probabilities are driven by the high confidence in the global ensembles and their control members with daily storm development. There is even some heavy rainfall potential with these rounds of rain and storms as the WPC has Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlooks (level 1 of 4) outlined for the forecast area on Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

With the exception of the near term portion of the TAF period for HYS, VFR conditions will prevail throughout the entire forecast period. Residual low clouds are continuing to linger from thunderstorm clusters to the east of the area up in and around the HYS area. So early MVFR conditions will remain possible this morning there, but clearing will occur into the later morning hours. Winds are expected to be rather light, generally 5-10 knots, and may be quite variable. No precipitation is expected at any TAF sites through the period.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.