textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Intensely hot afternoons will continue through all of this week, with afternoon temperatures of 100-105 common each day. Unseasonably hot afternoons will continue through Labor Day. Above normal temperatures are expected to continue into mid September.

- Repeated hot afternoons will accumulate heat stress on outdoor activity, pets and livestock.

- Dry weather will prevail across southwest Kansas through Labor Day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Midnight radar and satellite imagery depicted weakening showers and thunderstorms across NW KS, on the eastern periphery of the monsoonal moisture plume, along the Colorado/Kansas border. It was another clear very warm night across Kansas - still 85 at DDC at 1030 pm.

Persistence will be the preferred forecasting method all the way through Labor Day weekend, with models showing little to no thermal variability from day to day. The stagnant summer pattern will remain locked in through the weekend. Models do show continuity from previous solutions, with the core of the heat dome ridge remaining east of SW KS Tuesday and Wednesday, then retrograding westward to recenter over the SW KS region through the holiday weekend. Can't rule out an isolated afternoon or evening thunderstorm at peak heating each day, but it will be exceedingly difficult for convection to mature or be widespread through the weekend in the strongly subsident environment. Anything that can form would probably favor the northwest zones nearest the monsoon's influence, but NBM pops are necessarily very low. Most of SW KS will be dry for quite some time.

NBM max temperature grids continue with their 1-3 degree cool bias, and added 1-3 degrees to the afternoon temperatures for the next several days. Afternoon temperatures of 100-105 will be common each day through the weekend. The apparent temperature or heat index will flirt with heat advisory criteria (105) across the southeast zones each afternoon, but in general this heat wave will feature a drier daily heat, with dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s, with apparent temperatures remaining similar to the air temperatures. South winds will prevail each day, but do not appear overly strong on any given day, as lee trough remains persistent but modest.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 930 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF period, with VFR/SKC, scattered cirrus, and light winds. After 15z Tue, southwest to south winds are expected to gust 20-25 kts at all airports.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2026

Very hot afternoon temperatures of 100-105 will continue to lower relative humidity to 20-25% each afternoon. South winds will remain elevated each day, gusting 20-30 mph. As fuels continue to cure and dry out in this repeating regime of hot dry afternoons, the risk of wildfire spread will be elevated during the peak heating hours. Outdoor burning is discouraged.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.