textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Light accumulation of snow is expected for today into tonight with accumulations generally in the 1-3 inch range

- Model trends keep the heavier accumulating snows mainly south of the Kansas-Oklahoma state line tonight

- Models have a quick moving system that could bring some light accumulations of snow Sunday night

- Arctic air will continue to be in place through Monday morning with wind chill values as cold as -20 this morning and -15 for Sunday and Monday mornings

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

08Z upper air analysis shows a large trough across the central and northern plains with a closed low reaching the coast of Baja California. The first 700 mb shortwave is moving through western Kansas with the best lift occurring in north central Kansas. Radar returns are reflecting this lift as light snow continues mainly along and north of the K-96 corridor. Arctic air has firmly settled in western Kansas with 850 mb temps at -17 to -22 (C). Surface temps are below 0 and with wind speeds at 10-15 mph the wind chills are hovering around -20.

Today the focus of snow will largely depend on how much lift we get in the dendritic growth zone ahead of the second longwave trough that comes out of the Rockies later tonight. Short term models are all in large agreement of pockets of light snow throughout the day however accumulations should be light as the lift doesn't support anything other than light snow. We could see around 0.5 inch of snow at the most through the day with parts of southwest Kansas being snow free. Tonight the main event for the advertised winter storm will move into the southern plains. The model trends for snow continue to push the light to moderate snow more into Oklahoma and with drier air coming in from the northwest which will push the better lift into central Oklahoma...it looks like southwest Kansas should miss out on the major accumulating snow. Totals of 1-2 inches are possible mainly from Ashland to Pratt on east and as you go northwest the better probabilities are that there will be no snow through the night. Since this second wave is trending south that has led to overall totals being reduced as it looks like 4-7 inches along and east of a Meade to Hays line will be the final totals with lesser amounts as you go west.

Sunday should start out dry as a surface high settles in southwest Kansas. Latest model runs are showing a northwest flow shortwave entering into northwest and then southwest Kansas through the night. This wave will also bring back some recycled arctic air through the night with a cold front and with modest lift in the 850-700 mb layer we could see some light accumulating snow moving in between midnight and sunrise Monday morning. Totals should remain light as the highest probabilities still keep totals under 1 inch. After Monday morning the long term pattern keeps us dry until hints of a storm system appear towards Friday into the weekend however the track is still largely uncertain.

The cold air will stay entrenched at least through Monday morning with temperatures today struggling to get into the single digits. Wind chills for Sunday and Monday morning could fall to around -15 but the good news is that wind speeds both mornings should only be around 5 to 10 mph. Air temperatures are forecast to fall below 0 both mornings. With more sun expected on Sunday the models have shown a bit of a warming trend to the air mass however with snow on the ground we will probably see temperatures only get into the teens to lower 20s. Another round of arctic air comes in for Monday and then afterwards with west to southwest winds this should help to exit the arctic air mass by Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1125 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Ongoing winter storm will continue to affect our terminals through the time period. Winds overall should remain relatively light for this particular system with sustained winds around 10-15 kts. Bands of light snow will continue through 09Z and then we should see the snow gradually end. During the day on Saturday we could have periodic snow showers for all of our terminals that could lower surface visibilities but overall the flight categories will be hovering between MVFR and IFR due to the cloud ceilings. The next round of light snow is forecast to be further south and east of LBL and DDC so after 00Z the snow chances should gradually end and we should begin to see cloud ceilings rise around HYS and GCK shortly after 06Z.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Sunday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Sunday for KSZ030-031- 044>046-064>066-077>081-087>090. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.