textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. Some storms likely will be severe with large hail and strong wind gusts. - Cloudy and dramatically colder behind a cold front Friday. Stratus, drizzle and northeast winds will hold many portions of SW KS in the 40s and 50s.

- Severe threat Friday will be focused south, near the Oklahoma border, and points south of there.

- Strong south winds Saturday, warmer and more humid. Scattered marginally severe thunderstorms afternoon/evening.

- Sunday windy warmer and dry, strong southwest winds, any severe thunderstorms southeast of Dodge City.

- Monday windy warm and dry in the 80s. Strong southwest winds and elevated wildfire danger expected.

- Tuesday high end severe weather potential across central Kansas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Midday surface analysis confirmed the frontal boundary had retreated north into northern Kansas as expected, with a trough/dryline near the Colorado border. Instability is forecast to build through 7 pm, with NAM forecasting 1000-2000 J/kg focusing on the northern zones, along and north of K-96, by 7 pm. Moisture will be marginally improved compared to yesterday, with dewpoints in the upper 40s to near 50. Frontal boundary is expected to start moving south into the northern zones this evening, and associated convergence is expected to encourage thunderstorm development after 7 pm, mainly northeast of Dodge City. Bulk shear of 30-40 kts will be enough for updraft organization, with elevated supercell structures, but again lack of better moisture will keep risks limited to mainly 1-2 inch hail from the strongest storms.

Cold front aggressively pushes south tonight through Friday morning. Friday will be dramatically colder, and lowered temperatures greatly from previous forecast. Coldest 12z MET/NAM guidance shows most locations struggling to get out of the 40s Friday daytime, with stratus, drizzle, cold advection, and northeast winds all holding temperatures down. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to be in progress Friday morning with the frontal passage, but this will transition to more of a stratus/drizzle setup in the post frontal environment Friday afternoon. Friday night, elevated instability may encourage a hail threat as warm advection kicks in after midnight.

Friday's temporary cold air mass will be shoved rapidly out of SW KS Saturday morning, with the onset of strong south winds and strong warm advection. Saturday will be mostly cloudy, very windy, much warmer and more humid. South winds will easily gust over 40 mph, stronger than NBM guidance. Stratus, drizzle and scattered rain showers will prevail Saturday in the strong moisture advection regime. Temperatures will rebound to the 70s Saturday afternoon, and with sufficient clearing/CAPE, a marginal 5% wind/hail probability is maintained by SPC. Most significant severe hail/wind will likely remain south of SW KS Saturday.

Dryline is forecast to mix eastward Sunday into the eastern zones, replacing strong south humid winds, with strong much drier southwest winds. NBM pops have a sharp reduction in pops Sunday, which is correct with the loss of moisture and instability. Any severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening would focus on the dryline southeast of Dodge City, per SPC Day 4 outlook. Much more sunshine and strong downslope SWly winds will send temperatures well into the 80s Sunday.

Primary longwave trough over the Great Basin Monday is progged to finally eject through the Grand Canyon Tuesday morning, and reach SW KS in a negatively tilted fashion Tuesday evening. NBM pops are near zero Monday, with the dryline likely remaining southeast of Barber county. Monday will remain warm, well into the 80s, and with strong southwest winds and humidity falling to 10-15%, fire weather headlines are a near certainty Monday afternoon.

We will have to watch Tuesday carefully, as the primary trough ejects onto the plains. Most of SW KS will hold onto dry SW winds behind the dryline, but the dryline may get pulled west into the eastern zones/central Kansas, in an environment favorable for supercells and high end hail/tornado risk. Clearly, 5 days away, mesoscale/morning convection influences are unknown. Quiet dry weather is expected behind this system Wednesday and Thursday next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1010 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Strong south to southwest winds are expected at all airports through 00z Fri, gusting 25-30 kts. VFR will continue through 00z Fri, with variable mid/high level clouds. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along a frontal boundary during the 00-06z Fri time frame, and included a VCTS/CB mention in all TAFs. Cold front passage tonight will bring an abrupt northeast wind shift to the airports, gusting 20-25 kts. High confidence post frontal stratus will impact aviation Friday, with IFR/LIFR ceilings and reduced visibility in BR/-RA by 12z Fri.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.