textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonal temperatures near March normals on Monday, with much less wind.

- A rapid warming trend is expected Tuesday through Thursday, with near record highs in the 90s expected Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

- The next strong but dry cold front is expected Thursday evening, followed by strong northeast winds and much colder air Friday.

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry through the next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1202 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

WV imagery indicates a zonal flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, high pressure is shifting southward through the Dakotas into the Central Plains.

Dry conditions are likely to continue through mid-week as the SREF shows weak ridging aloft building in across the Great Basin and the Four Corners Region today, then pushing slowly east into the Colorado Rockies Wednesday. With little moisture/instability to speak of, rain chances will remain absent across the area through at least Wednesday, particularly as the ridge axis begins to edge into the Western High Plains.

Fairly seasonal temperatures are forecast today as departing surface high pressure sets up a south-southeasterly upslope flow across western Kansas by afternoon, doing little to erode the cooler air mass settled across the region. Considering the latest HREF indicates a better than 90% probability of temperatures exceeding 55F in central/south central Kansas to a 70-90% probability of temperatures topping 60F farther west, look for widespread afternoon highs in the 60s(F) with temperatures nearing 70F in extreme southwest Kansas. Above normal temperatures return Tuesday as prevailing southerlies enhance warm air advection into western Kansas, pushing H85 temperatures up around 10C in central Kansas to near 20C near the Colorado line. With the latest NBM indicating a 70-80% probability of temperatures climbing above 70F in south central Kansas to a 70-90% probability of temperatures nudging above 75F in extreme southwest Kansas, expect afternoon highs generally up into the 70s(F) to potentially the lower 80s(F) near the Colorado line.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 455 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

VFR will continue through this TAF period, with varying amounts of cirrus. Surface high pressure ridging was providing light winds at 10z Mon. After 18z Mon, expect light to moderate southeast winds to prevail through this TAF period. Modest SEly gusts near 25 kts are expected after 18z Mon, continuing through 00z Tue/sunset.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.