textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread light to moderate rain continues tonight through Sunday morning.

- Cloudy, chilly and damp conditions on Sunday followed by areas of fog Sunday night.

- Windy conditions with a gradual warming trend can be expected through mid week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1112 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

An upper level trough located near the Four Corners area will approach the Central/Southern Rockies over the next 24 hours. As this upper level system approaches an area of low pressure will develop along a surface boundary that will be located across Southeast Colorado/Northeast New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle. Increasing southerly flow ahead of this approaching upper wave will continue to draw Gulf moisture northward over this surface boundary and across southwest Kansas. This will result in increasing chances for accumulating rain from late today through early Sunday morning. The cloud cover and rain chances late today and Sunday will also limit any warmup potential across southwest Kansas which will result in a weekend of unseasonably cool temperatures. These clouds and light to moderate rainfall will end from west to east on Sunday as this system exits into the Lower Mississippi Valley, As this system moves east of western Kansas an upper level ridge will then begin to build across the Rockies and into the Central Plains during the first half of the upcoming work week. This will result in a period of dry conditions along with a gradually warming trend and increasing southerly winds. During the last half of the of the work week the upper ridge will move east of the area as our next Pacific upper level trough crosses the Western United States and approaches western Kansas. This will bring our next chance for precipitation to southwest Kansas.

Widespread accumulating rainfall possible from late today through Sunday morning. Isolated embedded thunderstorms possible near the Oklahoma border. Moisture and lift will continue to improve across southwest Kansas over the the next 24 to 36 hours as an upper level trough moves from the four corners region and into the Southern Plains/Panhandle of Texas. This will produce widespread beneficial rainfall across much of southwest and south central Kansas from evening through early Sunday morning given the moisture, isentropic lift and 850-700 moisture transport that will occur north of a surface boundary over the Texas Panhandle and head of the upper level trough across southwest Kansas. WPC and latest guidance continue to indicated that there is a >75% chance for rainfall to be greater than 0.2 south of the Arkansas river with a 60-70% chance of greater than 0.1 north of the river to the I-70 corridor. Near the Oklahoma border where better lift will be present along with mid level instability there is a 50-70% chance for rainfall totals to be greater than 0.5. Currently the best chance for the steadier and heavier rainfall to occur overnight will be near the Oklahoma border based on the moisture and isentropic lift north of a surface boundary that will be improving under improving difluent flow aloft. In addition to this improving lift there will be steepening mid level lapse rates that will accompany the upper level trough in this area which may also result in isolated thunderstorms near the Oklahoma border overnight. Any storm that does develop overnight near the Oklahoma border will be capable of producing isolate moderate to heavy rainfall. Another area that may also be favorable for the higher rainfall totals from this event will be near the 500mb deformation zone northwest of the upper trough/low that the REFS has remaining nearly stationary, mainly west of highway 83, from late today through Sunday.

Chilly and damp conditions on Sunday followed by areas of fog Sunday night. As the upper level trough crosses southwest Kansas on Sunday the rain will gradually taper off from west to east. Cloudy skies however will linger through late day which will limit any warmup potential Sunday afternoon. As a result temperatures will struggle to warm much more than 8-10F from the overnight lows...if that much. Currently this would yield temperatures Sunday afternoon mainly in mid 40s. Sunday night a southeast winds will fall back to less than 10 mph. These light southeasterly upslope flow combined with recent rainfall will create a favorable environment for temperatures to fall back quickly in the 30s with fog developing towards midnight.

Windy conditions with a gradual warming trend can be expected through mid week. Ensembles today were in good agreement that following the exit of the weekend upper level trough into the Mississippi Valley, an amplified upper level ridge will build into the Rockies and Central Plains. As this upper ridge crosses the Plains early in the work week our next upper level trough will exit the eastern Pacific and begin to establish itself over the western United States. As the upper ridge builds east across the Rockies the westerly flow will improve which will result in falling pressures along the lee of the Rockies along with warming 850mb temperatures. A tight surface pressure gradient will develop as a result of the falling pressures along the lee of the Rockies and given this combined with 30-40 knot 850mb winds mixing down to the surface Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon will result in increasing gusty winds across western Kansas. The deeper mixing potential late week will also allow the warm 850mb temperatures to mix down to the surface which will aid in the warming trend expected through mid week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 500 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

High confidence degraded flight categories will continue through this TAF period, with widespread IFR/LIFR stratus and reduced visibility in BR/DZ/RA/FG. Radar at 23z Sat depicted widespread light rain at all of the airports, and this will continue through 06-12z Sun. The least impacted flight categories are expected at HYS through Sunday, with the least rain and somewhat higher ceilings. Light east to southeast winds will prevail.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.