textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly dry conditions across southwest Kansas this upcoming work week.

- Temperatures this week will be near or slightly below the seasonal normal for this time of year. Highs will warm from around 90 degrees on Monday to the mid 90s by late week.

- Temperatures will warm into the upper 90s next weekend. There is a 30 to 60% chance for highs to be near 100 for south central and portions of southwest Kansas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Early this Sunday morning a 500 mb high was centered over the Northern Rockies with a weak north northeast flow present across the Central Plains. A surface boundary extended from southeast Colorado into the Panhandle of Texas with southeast to easterly winds occurring across western Kansas from the surface up to the 700mb level. Models remain in good agreement, keeping this surface boundary well south of the Oklahoma border and as a result any afternoon convection that does develop will not move into southwest Kansas.

Looking ahead to early next week...dry conditions can be expected across southwest Kansas as the surface boundary remains nearly stationary over eastern Colorado as large scale subsidence develops due to a rise in 500mb heights over the Central Plains. Additionally, the northeast to easterly mid level winds across the Central Plains will keep any storm that does develop along the surface boundary in eastern Colorado in eastern Colorado.

Temperatures during the first half of the work week are not expected to warm significantly, given the 850mb temperature trends across western Kansas and the persistence of east/southeast winds below the 700mb level as the 500mb high/ridge builds into the Plains. The latest guidance and model trends are in good agreement and indicate that temperatures will only warm a few degrees each day through the middle of the work week. As a result, southwest Kansas can look forward to highs around 90 on Monday and then warming into the 90 to 95 degree range by Wednesday. These high temperatures are mild for mid July as the seasonal normal for this time of year is near 95.

Towards the end of the work week and into the weekend the upper level ridge over the Northern Plains will weaken and retrograde into into the Northwest United States. This favor a developing northwest down slope flow to develop across the Rockies by the end of the weekend period. This shift will set the stage for possibly a better warm up to occur across southwest Kansas. Ensembles remain consistent with previous runs in keeping the 850mb temperatures the climatologist means late in the week before warming them into the 85th to 95th percentile range over the weekend. This trend not only supports the current forecast of highs in the mid to upper 90s next weekend but it also suggest highs could be near 100 degrees for some areas on Sunday. Currently, there is a 30-50% chance for high temperatures on Sunday to be 100 degrees or a little higher with the highest probabilities to be located across south central Kansas.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 531 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Outside of an isolated weak, brief shower or thunderstorm dotted across southwest Kansas, aviation weather will remain quiet. Prevailing wind will remain generally out of the southeast through this period, albeit not all that strong (12 knots or less for the most part). Flight category is forecast to remain VFR through this period and beyond as the summer subtropical high pressure area encompasses much of the central CONUS.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.