textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- A light freeze is expected across much of southwest Kansas Saturday and Sunday mornings, with sunrise temperatures of 28-32 common.

- After a seasonably cool Saturday, another rapid warming trend is expected Sunday through Tuesday.

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry for at least another week, through April 23, bringing continued fire weather concerns.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Midday surface analysis and satellite imagery confirmed the initial cold front had already cleared the majority of SW KS, with a sliver of the warm sector across Barber county as of noon. Cumulus field along the front is being monitored for expected convective initiation through about 2 pm. Expect all convective threats to be southeast of Barber county by 3 pm. Secondary cold front and much stronger cold advection will arrive after 3 pm this afternoon, with tightening pressure gradients and falling temperatures. Strongest north winds are expected 4 pm through sunset, when gusts near 50 mph are expected, especially along the preferred US 83 corridor. Wind grids are just below the 90%ile of the NBM. Winds will diminish rapidly about mid evening, as surface high pressure builds over SW KS.

Freeze watches were upgraded to freeze warnings and frost advisories on this update. Models place 1026 mb surface high pressure over SW KS at sunrise Saturday, with few if any clouds, increasingly drier air, and over very dry ground. Strong radiational cooling and cold advection give high confidence of temperatures 28-32 common at 7 am Saturday, with mid 20s across northwest zones. Most locations will not receive a hard/killing freeze. Light northwest winds will drive wind chills to the upper teens and lower 20s early Saturday.

Sunny dry and pleasant Saturday, in the 60s with light northwest winds. Another light freeze (28-32) is expected Sunday morning in a light and variable wind regime, and another round of frost/freeze headlines are expected. Models do show SWly downslope developing sunrise Sunday, which may keep some locations above freezing.

All models show strong warming Sunday, with SW KS beneath the eastern periphery of broad midlevel ridging building over the Rockies. Much warmer 70s Sunday afternoon, with elevated southwest winds. The Rockies ridge axis will only slowly edge eastward onto the high plains Monday and Tuesday, with the promise of a continued absolutely dry regime, and a strong warming trend through the 80s. Some locations will reach 90 Tuesday afternoon, especially given the assistance of the very dry topsoils.

All of SW KS will remain persistently dry through Tuesday. Beginning Wednesday, a new trough across the Pacific NW will bring SWly midlevel flow across the plains, which will in turn allow dryline development and moisture advection. Still, with only weak shortwaves evident over a diffuse dryline, NBM pops remain dry for Wednesday. A much more interesting convective pattern is suggested by the global models and their ensemble members Thursday and Friday, with a strong shortwave ejection possible around Thursday per 12z GFS. NBM only has very limited slight chance pops for the eastern zones Thursday, a reflection that the dryline will likely be, again, east of most of SW KS. Bottom line, there are no rain chances through Tuesday, and dry weather will prevail Wednesday through Friday. Moderate to severe drought will continue to intensify and expand across SW KS.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 430 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

VFR will continue through this TAF period, with limited mid/high clouds. Elevated north winds ongoing at 2130z are expected to increase over the next few hours, gusting to near 35-40 kts through about 03z Sat. North winds will diminish rapidly around midnight, with light northwest winds prevailing through Saturday morning. After 15z Sat, northwest winds will increase modestly at all airports, gusting 22-25 kts. Expect VFR/SKC to continue Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Elevated to critical wildfire risk will be persistent for the next several days in a continued dry regime. Intense north winds are expected late Friday, gusting 40-50 mph, with relative humidity in the 20-30% range. North winds will diminish rapidly this evening.

Critically low minimum relative humidity is expected for all zones Saturday and Sunday afternoon, and for at least western zones, west of US 283, Monday through Wednesday. Whether red flag warning criteria is achieved each day, will be based on wind speeds each afternoon.

Saturday, marginal northwest winds of 15-25 mph are expected amid critical relative humidity of 8-15%. After coordination with neighboring WFOs, have opted to not issue a red flag warning for Saturday.

Much warmer temperatures in the 70s Sunday afternoon will ensure that critically low relative humidity will be maintained. Stronger southwest winds across the southwest winds will require a fire weather watch for Sunday.

More fire weather headlines are expected Monday through Wednesday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Saturday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>079-084>088. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ066-080- 089.