textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Increased fire weather risk Thursday to critical conditions, with critical fire weather conditions likely east to Highway 183 corridor. Fire Weather Watch being upgraded to Red Flag Warning.

- Faster moving cold front that previously forecast Friday will reduce areal extent of Critical Fire Weather conditions, as well as reducing or perhaps even eliminating severe weather risk across our 27-county NWS Dodge City area entirely.

- Sub-freezing temperatures likely Saturday and/or Sunday morning as cold air mass drives south behind significant spring storm system.

- Continued serious fire weather risk into next week with very dry conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Today (Wednesday) will continue to be a rather quiet day in between storm systems. In the wake of storm system #1, much drier air will continue to move back in from the west and southwest, especially as winds become southwesterly on Thursday. The persistent southerly winds Thursday into Thursday night will allow gulf moisture to advance north-northwestward ahead of the much larger storm system #2, which by Friday morning will become centered near the Utah-Colorado line. The difference with storm #2 is the much colder air mass moving in from the north across the High Plains, out ahead of the deep mid level trough. Given the magnitude of colder air behind the front, a stronger than normal density current will develop, allowing very intense pressure rises behind the front, and the front will drive south very quickly during the day. All models have been quicker with the front with each successive run, which is a typical behavior as models catch up to the magnitude of cold air mass involved as well as strength of density current. Given that, we will also need to watch for possible High Wind criteria being met in gusts (58+ mph) for an hour or two in strongest initial MSLP rises (upwards of +8 or more mb/3hr).

Numerous severe storms will develop along the cold front and in vicinity of the cold front-dryline triple point, but given faster cold front, initiation will most likely now be across our far eastern counties Stafford-Pratt-Barber area, or perhaps even east of there just east of our DDC CWA. The Latest SPC Convective Outlook has shifted the gradient in probabilistic outlooks east to account for the faster/stronger cold front push in the afternoon Friday.

The strong cold front will lead to fairly robust temperature drop late Friday Night into early Saturday, with lows Saturday morning well down into the lower 30s much of southwest Kansas with 28F or less generally west of roughly Liberal to Garden City to WaKeeney. After initial collaboration with neighboring NWS offices to the west and northwest, we have considered issuing a Freeze Watch given the historically warm start to this Spring season. Similar temperatures are also likely early Sunday morning across the same general areas of far southwest and far west central Kansas while winds remain light before southwesterly winds pick back up again on Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1105 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

West-northwesterly winds will continue through the afternoon at speeds generally less than 15 knots. By early evening, winds will calm down to below 6 knots, remaining light through early Thursday morning before ramping back up out of the south to southwest in the 15 to 20 knot range. The dry air mass will lead to continued widespread VFR flight category through Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Widespread critical fire weather conditions are likely on Thursday, and as confidence continues to increase, we will upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning and also add in more counties -- east to a Hays to Coldwater line. Given the faster moving cold front on Friday, widespread critical fire weather conditions will be shunted farther south, and given continued forecast uncertainty in cold front timing, we will hold off on any fire weather headlines for Friday afternoon. After a respite in fire weather concerns Saturday, we will see a return to windy/dry conditions by Sunday with very low RH's down to 8 to 15% for a few hours across all of southwest, west central, and even south central Kansas.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Thursday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>080-084>089.