textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Cloudy and potentially foggy night tonight, favoring areas east of US-83.

- Light precipitation possible Tuesday and Tuesday night north of a surface low.

- Enhanced fire weather conditions possible Thursday favoring our western zones.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1000 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Late evening water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal a rather muted synoptic pattern atop the CONUS, with weak ridging over the central and southern Rockies and a modest trough upstream near the northern CA coast. At the surface, high pressure centered in the Great Lakes region expands all the way through the central plains, supporting northeasterly upslope flow across our area. This will drive a cloudy, and perhaps foggy night favoring areas east of US-83, but confidence is high all precipitation will remain well to the east. That said, the low clouds should help keep our area slightly warmer overnight despite the cool airmass in place, with overnight lows in the 20s to low 30s.

Daytime Monday, overcast skies will likely linger through the day for areas along and east of US-283 as the upper level trough propagates eastward to the central Rockies. In response, lee cyclogenesis in eastern CO will result in winds flipping to southeasterly across southwest KS, and a wide range in afternoon highs will materialize with upper 60s/near 70 in our far southwest zones decreasing to the mid/upper 40s from Hays to Medicine Lodge.

Medium range ensembles bring the upper level trough onto the central plains on Tuesday, with its attendant surface low tracking near or just south of the KS/OK border. This trajectory would keep southwest KS within the cool airmass, although any wobble to the north would result in at least our southern zones entering the warm sector. Some light precipitation is possible north of the surface low on Tuesday into Tuesday night favoring our eastern zones, but QPF will be limited as NBM probability of 0.1" or greater is 35% or less for all areas. Beyond Tuesday night, ensembles suggest a much stronger wave will push east into the Great Basin on Thursday, potentially leading to enhanced fire weather conditions west of the dryline, but predictability at this range renders confidence in any solution low.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1125 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Surface observations reveal MVFR stratus has moved into our area and is currently impacting HYS. Short range guidance indicates this stratus deck will continue to spread westward over the next few hours, bringing cigs as low as LIFR to HYS, DDC, and GCK. Fog development is also possible as temperatures drop amidst the weak northeast moist upslope flow, resulting in vis dropping to 1/2 to 1/4 mile at times. Stratus will finally begin to scatter out by late morning/early afternoon Monday. Otherwise, winds will remain light and variable through much of the period, with only a slight increase out of the southeast during the afternoon ours at GCK and LBL.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.