textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and storms continue today; focused mainly in central Kansas

- Rainfall chances continue into Friday

- Temperatures more seasonable Friday; hotter this weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

00z DDC upper-air sounding continued to show a very moisture- laden profile, with moisture extending above 500 mb with a PW Value of 1.39". This tropical-like pattern is leading to continued shower and isolated thunderstorm development early this morning across portions of central and southwest Kansas. This level of moisture continues to be in the upper echelon climatologically for the end of May, which is leading to efficient rainfall across much of the forecast area. WPC has issued a Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion across portions of southwest Kansas to highlight this continued overnight heavy rainfall risk, as heavy rainfall is once again falling onto areas that have seen significant rainfall from yesterday afternoon. Largely think this continues to be more beneficial than anything, but it bears watching for some local hydro concerns through the early morning hours. This activity is expected to continue, but pivot more into central Kansas this afternoon, putting more rainfall potential into eastern and northeastern zones. RAP soundings continues with the idea of 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE developing into this afternoon, leading to isolated to scattered thunderstorms with the potential for heavy rainfall again. Lightning activity will diminish into the evening with the loss of daytime heating. Severe weather risk continues to remain very low with the lack of shear, so storms will largely be disorganized, but some gustier winds cannot be entirely ruled out in the vicinity of any storms.

Friday, we generally clear out of this tropical pattern, and return to a more Plains pattern. Storms will once again be possible, with some CAMs indicating storm developing in eastern CO and TX/OK Panhandles moving into southwest Kansas late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. Lacking shear and upper-level support will continue to mitigate more organized severe weather risk with the activity. However, if storms are to develop, with inverted-V soundings showing temperatures climbing back into the upper 80s to possibly low 90s with dews in the upper 50s, some isolated downburst damaging winds winds could be possible. SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) across the southern portions of the forecast area to highlight this potential.

Temperatures will gradually climb back up to more seasonable Friday, with temperatures expected to be back into the 90s by this weekend. POPs continue to be in the latest NBM output, but overall storm coverage will be low (20-40%) with a focus more on eastern zones this weekend. Uncertainty regarding the pattern into next week will exist as ENS and GFS ensembles both agree on a cut-off mid to upper-level low moves into the central and northern Plains and meanders, possibly for a couple to a few days. How this feature ultimately influences our weather is uncertain at this moment, but POPs 20-40% is in the forecast for nearly every day next week to highlight at least some storm potential.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 521 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Low clouds and ceilings due to scattered rain showers will bring periods of MFR to LIFR conditions to western Kansas this morning. This activity should move into central Kansas this afternoon leading to VFR conditions. Winds will generally be from an easterly direction at less than 10 knots through tonight.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.