textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Afternoon temperatures Thursday will remain near late August normals, in the upper 80s and lower 90s, with light winds.

- A heating trend is expected Friday through this weekend, with near record highs expected Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Expect temperatures of 100-105 Sunday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1130 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Midnight radar and satellite imagery depicted several clusters of sub-severe thunderstorms across eastern Colorado, making slow progress eastward to the Kansas border. Mesoanalysis indicates mixed layer CAPE of 1-2k J/kg, and bulk shear of about 30 kts across the western zones, which should be sufficient to allow at least some of this activity to enter the western zones overnight. 00z ARW supports this notion, but keeps most of the showers and storms west of US 83. NBM seemed too wet, too far east and trimmed the pop grids down through sunrise Thursday. Similar to previous nights, uncertainty remains high regarding nocturnal thunderstorm coverage overnight in this summer NWly midlevel flow pattern. Some models are aggressive with storm coverage, some models are dry. Given radar/satellite trends in Colorado, and some favorable parameters in western zones, split the difference. A healthy MCS is possible west of US 83 by 4 am should the 00z ARW and other CAMs come to fruition.

The strong midlevel high will remain well to the southwest of SW KS Thursday, over Arizona and New Mexico. This will help keep temperatures near late August normals Thursday afternoon, in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Along with light winds, poor mixing and lack of downslope, Thursday will represent a small break from the excessive heat. The forecasted high of 90 at DDC would be the coolest max temperature since August 5th.

00z ARW suggests another mesoscale convective system (MCS) will develop across Nebraska by 7 pm Thursday, then sink due southward into central Kansas, east of US 283, Thursday night and early Friday. The ARW solution has some support from 00z NAM, but again model agreement is mediocre at best, with various weak, hard to time vorticity maxima rotating through the northeast periphery of the ridge. The ARW solution would require high pops for the eastern zones Thursday night, but the NBM, incorporating those drier solutions, only included minimal slight chance pops across northeast zones Thursday night. The uncertainty inherent with summer nocturnal thunderstorm forecasting continues.

A strong heating trend is expected Friday through the weekend. Rising heights and increased south winds and improved mixing will send temperatures well into the 90s Friday afternoon. A dry forecast Friday is appropriate, as subsidence increases from the approaching ridge axis. Heat is expected to peak over the weekend, with afternoon temperatures of 100-105 common both Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Model guidance places the upper high over Texas by Saturday, which will spread SWly midlevel flow across the plains, and the return of lee troughing. As such, the Kansas winds will return Saturday, with south winds averaging 20-30 mph with gusts near 40 mph. Air is expected to remain sufficiently dry through the weekend, with dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower 60s, such that a heat advisory will not be required for most zones. As usual, the exception may be Barber county and the southeast zones where the heat index will be near 105 for a few hours Sunday afternoon. Saturday's forecast is dry, but scattered thunderstorms will favor the northwest zones Sunday afternoon, as more favorable SWly midlevel flow overspreads the plains.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 533 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Isolated thunderstorms around the terminals should be ending between 12-15Z this morning and we should be left with VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period. Winds should be mainly out of the southeast at 15 kts or less. A few short term models have a line of storms coming out of Nebraska into northern Kansas late this evening that could affect HYS between 03-06Z but the probability of that happening is less than 20% at this point.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.