textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures on Thursday

- Storm potential returns Friday night and severe weather potential for storms on Saturday

- Active storm potential continues into next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

18z synopsis shows the leading edge of a wind shift line extending into areas south and east of Dodge City and the leading edge of the colder air entering into our northern zones. Compressional heating along the front has spiked 850 temps into the 29-32 (C) range and temperatures behind the front have fallen to around 18 (C). This heating has led to many areas already in the 90s before the noon hour. In the upper levels we continue with mainly northwest flow in the central and northern plains as an upper low sits in northern Canada and a large ridge is located off the Pacific coast.

Tonight CAMs and short term ensembles are in good agreement with the forward propagation of the front and the resultant diminishing of surface moisture that we should have the thunderstorm threat well east of the Dodge City forecast area. The higher probability of storms should stay east of the Kansas turnpike. Main highlight for tonight will be the continued cold air advection aided by breezy northeast winds.

Thursday the day should start with mostly cloudy skies for much of southwest Kansas due to the upslope flow and higher moisture levels. Through the day with diurnal heating and better mixing the clouds should clear out by afternoon. We should have a pleasant June day with highs in the lower 80s. There is a small probability (less than 20%) we could have some thunderstorm development mainly in south central Kansas as models have a northwest flow shortwave moving through central Kansas in the afternoon and evening hours.

Friday we should start to see a slight upper level pattern change as the trough in the northern plains moves into the Great Lakes and a trough enters off the California coast. Flow in the mid levels turns more zonal and that means a more active pattern should be on the way. Friday evening a shortwave comes out of eastern Colorado and should interact with good lower level moisture and instability which will lead to developing storms towards late afternoon through the evening with highest probabilities (40-50%) along and east of highway 283. CAPE values will be forecast around 1100 J/kg and 0-6 km shear values in the 30 kt range could give us at least a large hail and damaging wind threat.

Saturday will be a day of interest severe weather wise as SPC has our I-70 and K-96 counties in a 15% risk and CSU machine learning has a bullseye of 30% severe risk in our northern counties. The trends in the medium term models has the trough from the Pacific coast moving into the four corners region with increasing winds in the jet streak. A developing negative to neutral tilt trough will develop in the Rockies and move into western Kansas by evening. Ensemble forecast members have a mean of 2000 J/kg MU CAPE ahead of the trough and dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s. While the ensembles don't show much of a dryline the deterministic models are keying in more on a dryline developing along the highway 83 corridor. Skew t's and hodographs are hinting at good lower level shear for updrafts and a fatter CAPE profile once the parcel gets above the LCL. This would suggest the potential for supercell development with hail and winds the main threat and the tornadic threat will need to be monitored closely in the coming days. '

Heading into next week a building upper level high develops over the desert southwest keeping the central plains mainly in westerly the northwesterly flow. This should keep the train of shortwaves and lower level moisture in place with precipitation chances for the early parts of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 505 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

A surface pressure gradient will tighten across southwest Kansas overnight as a cold front stalls over northwest Oklahoma and a surface high builds into the eastern Colorado. This will result in an increase in the east northeast to 15 to 20 knots between 06z and 12z Thursday. Improving isentropic lift north of this surface boundary late tonight will produce VFR ceilings after 09z. Ceilings will decrease to 5000-10000ft AGL at Hays and Garden City. Ceilings in the 3000-5000ft AGL can be expected at Dodge City and Liberal with a 30-40% chance of MVFR conditions (2000-3000ft AGL) at Liberal between 12z and 15z Thursday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.