textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong cold front will sag south across SW KS Tuesday, bringing a wide variety of temperatures, with lower 90s near Oklahoma, and much cooler air near I-70.

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected to favor the southeast counties, south and east of Dodge City, Tuesday afternoon and evening. Some storms may be severe with large hail and damaging winds.

- Dramatically colder air is expected Wednesday, with temperatures reduced to the 40s and 50s with widespread low clouds.

- Widespread rain is expected Wednesday night, heavy at times, followed by strong north winds Thursday.

- Cool fall weather will persist into next weekend, with frost or a light freeze probable Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Midnight infrared satellite imagery and surface observations outlined a strong cold front arriving along the I-70 corridor. The cold front's progress appears to be well ahead of most model projections, but consensus is the frontal boundary will decelerate daylight Tuesday in the face of an unseasonably warm boundary layer. 00z NAM/ARW depict the front near US 50 at 4 pm, but the front's current quick progression will need to slow substantially for the NAM's forecast frontal position to verify. At any rate, strong convergence is expected near the triple point intersection of this front and the dryline, somewhere over the central/southcentral zones during the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop after 4 pm, favoring the southeast zones, mainly southeast of Dodge City. Bulk shear and instability will both be sufficient to support a supercell storm mode, but convection is expected to be undercut quickly by the advancing cold air into Tuesday evening. Current observations reveal air temperatures in the 30s across much of the northern plains, and feel models may not be appreciating the magnitude of this colder air mass. As such, it may be difficult to achieve any surface-based convection in Kansas today. Large hail, 1-2 inches in diameter, is expected to be the primary threat Tuesday afternoon/evening, southeast of a Meade-Dodge City-Larned line. With the front bisecting SW KS, a large temperature range will result Tuesday afternoon, ranging from 60s north to 90s south.

Rising surface pressures will continue tonight into Wednesday as cool high pressure builds southward across the central plains. Models forecast widespread stratus and drizzle developing through Wednesday morning, in the developing warm air advection regime over the cold boundary layer. 00z NAM really latches onto this cold solution, usually the best guidance for cold air wedging down the high plains. With a saturated boundary layer, stratus overcast, and drizzle, with northeast winds and cold advection, NAM-based solutions are unseasonably cold, struggling to get out of the 40s Wednesday afternoon. After neighboring WFO coordination, lowered NBM forecasts significantly into the 50s, and this is probably still too warm given upstream observations in the northern plains tonight.

Heavy rain is expected to focus on Wednesday night, as the midlevel closed cyclone ejects through Colorado, and strong forcing for ascent/diffluence aloft spread over SW KS. Global models are very wet Wednesday night, with NBM pops 90-100%, and rain amounts of 1/2-1 inch expected to be common. Some elevated instability may generate some small hail Wednesday night, but locally heavy rain and hydrology impacts are the main concern.

The strongest cold front of the fall season so far is expected Thursday, with strong north winds. NBM wind grids looked sufficient, but are probably still too low, with gusts of 40-45 mph expected. Again, trimmed Thursday temperatures from the NBM along with neighbors, with 00z GFS forecasting 850 mb temperatures falling to near +5C at DDC Thursday afternoon.

Strong 1040 mb Canadian high pressure will arrive Friday, with diminishing north winds, and afternoon temperatures only in the 50s, even with full sunshine. Near ideal radiational cooling is expected Friday night, with the first freeze of the season expected Saturday morning. NBM temperatures Saturday morning are trending down into the lower 30s/near freezing, and upper 20s are probable where winds are light and variable, and in our typically coldest locations. A freeze warning is expected to be required Saturday morning.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 436 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Flying conditions will need to be monitored during this time period as a strong cold front will move across southwest Kansas today. The front has passed through HYS as winds have switched to the northeast and will eventually pass through DDC, GCK, and LBL between 21-00Z. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop after 18Z that could lead to VCTS conditions for DDC and HYS between 21-00Z. As the front moves into Oklahoma stratus clouds will develop after 06Z and will reduce the flight category from VFR to IFR or LIFR category through 12Z. Additionally scattered rainshowers are possible which could also reduce surface visibility to 4SM or less.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.