textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong northwest winds midday Tuesday will weaken rapidly late Tuesday afternoon. The sky will also clear rapidly near sunset.

- Strong radiational cooling will deliver seasonably cold temperatures in the 30s Wednesday morning.

- Rain expected late Wednesday through early Thursday.

- Cool temperatures in the 50s Thursday afternoon will be followed by a warming trend Friday through Monday.

- After the rain early Thursday, a long dry stretch is expected, with no precipitation through at least November 12th.

- There are no hard/killing freezes in sight through at least the next 10 days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Strong closed midlevel cyclone was departing through eastern Kansas at midday, with the cyclone's circulation clearly evident on satellite imagery. Widespread wraparound stratocumulus at 11 am will continue to gradually erode through mid afternoon as subsidence takes control, followed by rapid clearing to a clear sky around sunset. Strong northwest winds gusting near 40 mph as of 11 am, will remain strong through about 2 pm, then rapidly weaken to light 5-10 mph around sunset. Strong radiational cooling is expected through sunrise Wednesday, with a clear sky, light winds and drier air, allowing temperatures to fall to seasonably cold mid to upper 30s. Widespread frost is anticipated across northwest zones Wednesday morning, where minimum temperatures of 32-34 will be colocated with wet topsoils from last night's heavy rainfall. No hard freezes (<28 degrees) are expected.

Fantastic fall weather expected Wednesday beneath very brief shortwave ridging between systems. Full sunshine will prevail for most of Wednesday, with only light and variable winds by afternoon, and afternoon temperatures near normal in the lower 60s. Midlevel clouds are expected to increase rapidly near sunset as the next shortwave approaches.

Compact progressive shortwave is forecast to be centered near the Colorado Rockies 6 pm Wednesday, over SW KS 6 am Thursday, and near Tulsa, Oklahoma 6 pm Thursday. While small, quick and moisture starved, this shortwave will possess rather impressive kinematic forcing for ascent and frontogenesis to produce scattered to numerous rain showers. NBM pops are correctly focused on the Wednesday night/early Thursday time frame, and have increased into the likely category (60-80% coverage). Models have shown consistency with a track that places the best rain directly over SW KS, but with such a small system, any track deviation would alter rainfall amounts noticeably. Current WPC QPF guidance of 0.10-0.30 inch appears reasonable, with the least amounts across the northern I-70 corridor. Temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s will keep all precipitation rain, with no impacts expected.

Afterwards, a long stretch of dry weather, with little to no impacts, is expected heading into mid November. The next shortwave is progged to quickly cutoff into Mexico, and remain well south of SW KS through this weekend into next week. All NBM pops are dry for all zones of SW KS Friday through Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures will be seasonably mild and pleasant in the 60s, with still no cold air intrusions and no killing freezes evident through at least November 10th.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 406 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through much of the period. Gusty northwest winds will continue to subide through mid-evening, dropping to less than 15kt overnight as surface low pressure lifts northeast across the Upper Midwest.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.