textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and seasonable weather is expected through Saturday afternoon. - There are moderate to high chances (50-80%) of light rain Saturday night and Sunday, along with cooler temperatures.

- A hard freeze (for those who haven't had one) is not expected anytime soon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 755 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

A large upper level trough will develop across the eastern United States over the next several days, with associated high pressure bringing much cooler weather to the central and eastern USA. However, western Kansas will be on the western periphery of the cool air mass, with surface high pressure settling across the central plains Friday morning. The coolest readings will be across central Kansas, with milder temperatures across far southwest Kansas. Temperatures may fall to near or below freezing early Friday; but the long awaited hard freeze is highly unlikely except for perhaps Larned and Hays where upper 20s are likely. The latest, first hard freeze at Dodge City was on 22 November 1934; and this may be challenged this fall. Afternoon temperatures will be progressively cooler into Thursday and Friday in the wake of the surface high pressure as southeasterly upslope flow has a cooling effect and recirculates cool air. Expect highs in the 50s in central Kansas, with near 60 in the southwest corner.

An intense upper level storm system west of the Aleutians will weaken as it progresses southeastward into the Desert Southwest by Friday and Saturday. Over the past few days the various ensemble systems have been in disagreement with the intensity of this system. More specifically, some solutions continue to close the system off and pass it across the southern plains. This would be a wet solution for the southern half of western Kansas for Saturday night and Sunday. Other solutions are slower to close the system off or have the system farther north or south, which would impact who gets rain and how much. The track and intensity of this system depends on the speed of the next system moving off the coast of Japan near 145 west longitude. If this trailing system is faster, then it would push the lead system along faster, resulting in less rain across southwest Kansas. Any rain into an already cool air mass, along with easterly upslope flow and solid cloud cover, would result in cool highs in the 40s to lower 50s for Sunday. Concerning rain amounts, all of the surface based instability and most of the elevated CAPE will stay south of Kansas, along with any chance for severe weather. However, an extended period of light rain could result in significant rain amounts given how climatologically dry we are this time of year. The various ensemble means indicate the potential of .10" to .50", with the highest amounts along the Oklahoma state line from Meade to Coldwater to Medicine Lodge, and much less along I-70. The grand ensemble shows 60% chances for at least .25" along the Oklahoma state line but only 30-40% chances for at least .5" there. Significant rain chances are much lower along I-70 per grand ensemble.

The trailing system (mentioned above) is expected to approach the high plains by the middle of next week. Whether this system brings significant rain to southwest Kansas depends on the speed and track, which are highly uncertain.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1134 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Surface low pressure will pass across the eastern part of the plains today. An associated weak cold front will move across western Kansas early in the period between 09 and 12z, resulting in light winds gradually shifting to the north. North winds will increase to 10-12 kts with daytime heating, with the strongest sustained winds as high as 12-14 kts at KHYS in closer proximity to the surface low pressure system. VFR conditions will persist, with only some high level cloud expected.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.