textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong cold front will move through western Kansas tonight bringing strong post frontal winds

- Significantly cooler temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday with a potential frost/freeze in our western zones Thursday morning

- Increasing probability of rainfall accumulations of 0.5-1 inch in parts of western Kansas and snowflakes could be mixing in near the Colorado border Wednesday morning

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

18Z upper air and surface analysis shows a large trough over the Great Lakes and northern plains with an intensifying sub tropical jet over the desert southwest and an upper low off the Pacific coast. A 1002 mb surface low is around Garden City and has been slowly moving south and east through the morning hours.

Tonight model trends have the trough in the northern plains moving south which will give momentum to a stout cold front. Frontal passage in western Kansas will be between midnight and sunrise and with the upper level lift provided by the subtropical jet the surface low will move into northern Oklahoma and deepen to around 996 mb. Post frontal winds are expected to quickly increase to 15- 25 mph with gusts over 40 mph potentially for most of the morning hours on Tuesday and likely will continue into the afternoon. Spotty rain chances will be located mainly along the I-70 corridor where the better mid level lift setup will be. POP chances will be 20-30% with QPF values of a couple of hundredths are anticipated. It will be significantly colder on Tuesday as the cloud cover, cold air advection, and northeast winds will make it difficult for diurnal heat. Highs should be a good 30 degrees colder than highs on Monday with mid to upper 50s.

Wednesday short term and ensemble trends continue to show a higher probability of rainfall across much of southwest Kansas. Upper level dynamics have the subtropical jet streak winds increasing to 120-130 kts over the central plains and increasing lift in the mid levels starting in northwest Kansas Tuesday night. This area of lift should move into southwest Kansas Wednesday morning. 850 mb temperatures are forecast to be around 0 to -1 (C) Wednesday morning and areas along the Colorado border may see some snowflakes mixing in with the rain fall. With the warm ground snow accumulations are not anticipated but what falls as snow could amount to a few tenths. The bigger story is the rainfall as ENS and GEFS output in the various models have a pretty consistent bullseye of higher QPF roughly north and west of an Elkhart to Dodge to Hays line. NBM probabilities of greater than 0.5 inch reflect this too with a 60- 90% of receiving greater than 0.5 inch. Probabilities of 1 inch of rain have also come up in our far northwest zones as we have 10-30% chance along and west of a Syracuse to WaKeeney line.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning the main upper trough and lift should start to exit the region and the rainfall will end. With a 1024 mb surface high building in on the backside of the trough we should see winds diminish and skies clear during the night. With little warming in the low levels expected on Wednesday we will see the potential for a frost across much of western Kansas Thursday morning as lows are forecast to be 30 degrees or below along and west of a Liberal to Ness City line. NBM probabilities of 70-100% of less than 30 degrees also suggest the higher likelihood of a frost/freeze.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 554 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Isolated high based showers and thunderstorms will venture close to KDDC and KHYS through 01z as a cold front approaches. The cold front will pass through the TAF sites between 03 and 06z, resulting in a wind shift to the north and northeast with gusts to 40 kts. Thunderstorms are expected to form on the front and pass through Hays around 03-04z and will be accompanied by the strong north winds. The north winds will gradually subside towards 10-14z but remain gusty through mid morning. Rain showers are forecast to develop toward the end of the period and could affect KGCK, KDDC and KHYS.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for KSZ043-044-061>063-074>076-084-085.