textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Record or near-record high temperatures today with widespread lower to mid 90s across all of west central and southwest Kansas.

- Hottest temperatures of 100+ degrees possible Thursday afternoon over the Red Hills. The Kansas state record high of 101 degrees for the month of March, which was just set a few days ago, could be reached or exceeded.

- Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which strong to possibly severe, could affect Red Hills area along/just north of the surface cold front Thursday evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

The sprawling upper level ridge of high pressure centered across the Desert Southwest with influence all the way north through southern Idaho into Wyoming will lead to an expansion of another record/near record hot stretch for Wednesday and Thursday -- before a strong cold front wipes this air mass away.

As far as Wednesday is concerned, we are looking at corners of the DDC CWA and all points between to reach 90+ afternoon temperatures as the core of this highly anomalously hot air mass expands east across western Kansas. The official forecast high for Dodge City as of this forecast update will be 93F, which is 3 degrees hotter than the record of 90F for March 25. A strong, zonal Pacific jet streak will move out across the north central CONUS on Thursday, and will drive a fairly significant cold front south across Kansas during the day Thursday.

It all comes down to timing of the front on Thursday, because just out ahead of this front mid-late afternoon Thursday, it is almost a certainty there will be triple-digit temperatures. There is still uncertainty in where that critical thermal plume will extent east- northeast ahead of the front in the 20-22Z time frame (3-5PM CDT), when afternoon maximum temperature will occur. As it stands now, this axis is forecast to reside over the Red Hills area of Clark, Comanche, and Barber County into adjacent northwest Oklahoma areas. On 21 March, the Plainville 4WNW long term COOP climate station set the new Kansas state record for hottest March temperature of 101 degrees, which overtook the previous record of 100 degrees which held since 1907 at the Ashland long term COOP climate station. This station could very well take back the record if it reaches 102F for a high on Thursday. Our latest forecast calls for 101F at Ashland with a few grid points of 102F closer to the Oklahoma line from far southern Meade into far southern Clark County. The Dodge City March high temperature record is 98 degrees, and the official forecast calls for 93F before the front moves through, but if the front is just a couple hours slower than forecast, the Dodge City March record will be in jeopardy.

When the front moves through late Thursday afternoon/evening, it will certainly be felt with fairly quickly falling temperature and north-northeast winds of 25 to 35 mph, gusting well over 40 mph at times. High temperatures Friday will be some 35 to 40 degrees cooler than Thursday along/south of the Arkansas River. The next question will be chances of showers/thunderstorms along the low level frontal zone Thursday evening. Latest NBM does have 20-30 POPs for measurable rainfall due to thunderstorms across mainly Comanche and Barber County. A marginally severe storm cannot be ruled out across the Barber County area in particular, given the advancement of mid to upper 50s dewpoints toward the strong front. There should be enough moisture and convergence along the frontal zone to support at least a storm or two.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 435 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF cycle, with VFR/SKC and light winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Wednesday: As temperatures warm into the 90s this afternoon, relative humidity will fall to 12-16% by afternoon west of a Meade to Bucklin to La Crosse line. As far as winds go, a trough axis will advance slowly into west central and southwest Kansas with winds becoming north across the same general area where lowest RH will be, but sustained wind speeds and/or frequent gusts should stay below critical 25 mph threshold for critical fire weather.

Thursday: A Fire Weather Watch has been issued as RH will likely fall well down into the single digits ahead of a strong cold front. Deep boundary layer mixing should allow for gusts to reach 25+ mph frequent enough for at least a 2 to 3 hour period to justify a watch. Of concern as well will be the major wind shift in speed and direction late afternoon/early evening should any wildfires be in progress at time of frontal passage.

Friday: The cold front will usher in much cooler temperatures, such that afternoon minimum RH will be more manageable despite drier air and decreasing wind speed by afternoon. At this time, it does not appear the combination of RH and wind speed will support critical fire weather conditions, so no Fire Weather Watch will be considered at this time for Friday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.