textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Hotter temperatures generally expected today; some uncertainty still remains regarding placement of boundary

- Area-wide heat Monday; record temperatures possible with upper 90s to around 100

- Very low storm chance today; greater chances next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 108 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Surface boundary is currently situated right along, or just south, of the KS/OK border. How this boundary meanders back northward into this afternoon will determine how hot the area can get. Given max temperature uncertainty and front placement, have knocked down temperatures a few touches from the NBM output. A few solutions like MET remain too cold, and MAV is better but still may be a touch too low. As the previous forecaster noted, NBM is probably running too hot with northward extent. To compromise, maintained upper 90s to near 100 in southern counties, but decreased them northward from there. Temperatures may still be overdone in some spots, but generally like where the forecast is at for now.

Very little doubt on the heat's extent into Monday as the front moves northward and clears the area. Widespread upper 90s to around 100 looks probable across the entire CWA. These temperatures are near record highs for September 14th. Gusty winds will also be in the forecast Monday afternoon with a stiff downslope flow from the southwest. Winds will be be 25-35 sustained, with higher gusts.

Storm chances are minimal across the forecast area today with POPs around 20% or less at best. The boundary could serve as a focus for a storm or two, but coverage is not expected to be significant and any storms that do develop will lose steam very quickly after dark. With the exception of steep low-level lapse rates, not much going for anything severe with much lower shear than yesterday. Gusty winds would be the risk should a storm or two develop. The next significant chance of rain will be Monday and into next week when a strong shortwave traverses into the Plains and brings another cold front. Scattered thunderstorms would be expected in this regime, with likely to definite POPs 60-80% Monday-Wednesday. Strong storms and heavy rainfall could be associated with the activity, but day to day details will be ironed out as we get closer.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 544 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Low clouds this morning will bring IFR conditions to the GCK, DDC, and HYS terminal. These low clouds should dissipate by this afternoon with skies becoming mostly clear. Winds will be light and from the southeast this morning, shifting to the south with an increase in speed by this afternoon.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.