textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- A significant winter storm and bitter arctic air is forecast to impact all of southwest Kansas Friday through Sunday

- SW Kansas has been divided into the southeast counties being in a Winter Storm Warning and the northwest counties in a Winter Weather Advisory based on forecasted snow totals

- Arctic air mass arrives Friday and could linger through Monday with dangerous wind chill values around -15 to -20 with a Cold Weather Advisory out for all counties

DISCUSSION

Issued at 317 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

The current synoptic expectations has continued roughly as forecasted previous. A strong and deep low pressure system situated over the heart of Canada is dominating the pattern. Additionally, an upper-level closed low has developed off of the west coast. Current surface analysis has a very weak low pressure over the CO/KS border. Its' passage eastward will shift winds tonight with little other impacts. Highs will plateau today in the 40s with some of the southern areas reaching the 50 degree mark with ensembles at a 30-50% chance. Otherwise weather will be quiet into tomorrow when the onset of the winter storm occurs. On Friday a system is expected to bring very cold temperatures and moderate/heavy snowfall.

The system will plunge arctic air down into SW Kansas drastically dropping highs on Friday relatively compared to Thursday with highs currently forecast primarily between 10-20 degrees. Skies will quickly move into the area on Friday. Cloudy skies and strong CAA will compete with the diurnal processes and nearly reverse it. A Cold Weather Advisory begins at 6 PM friday with wind chills approaching -15 degrees. Into the Friday overnight, temperatures will continue to drop and near 0 degrees. At this point wind chills will bottom out at around -20 degrees. Winds will be strongest on Friday leading to the coldest wind chill potential into Saturday morning. The winds will weaken significantly for the rest of the weekend, but since temperatures are so low, barely any wind is needed to generate very cold wind chills. It will need to be monitored if these wind chills drops further and a Extreme Cold Warning will be needed. However models and ensemble trends have finally stopped being colder and colder as a decent grasp of the temperatures are finally achieved. It is still expected to be a few degrees cooler since those solutions are often too warm in these setups, but the forecast attempts to reconcile that discrepancy. Saturday highs are not expected to break out of the single digits as it will remain very cold. Wind chills may bounce in and out of the Cold Weather Advisory criteria, but it will stay cold and a potential hazard so the Advisory lasts through that stretch. Near the end of the system, Sunday highs will attempt to recover and break out of the cold surge with highs approaching 20 degrees. Sunday night however, cold air with negative temperatures return. The Cold Weather Advisory ends at noon Sunday, but another one may need to be issued soon for Sunday night if forecast wind chills remain around -15 with uncertainty being the primarily hang up. Highs into next week will still be colder than normal in the 30s, but significantly warmer than the very cold weekend.

The snow the system brings may end up being even more pressing than the cold. From Friday at 6 PM to Sunday at 6 AM, the CWA is divided by a Winter Storm Warning and a Winter Weather Advisory. This is along a northeast/southwest axis with the Winter Storm Warning in the southeastern counties. Initial forecasted amounts in the southeast is 5-9 inches of snow through the entire event. Some snowier ensembles such as the NBM have totals over a foot, but most other ensembles have converged at a mean of 6-8 inches with plenty of wiggle room a couple inches either way. The farthest west/northwestern counties are only forecast to see 3-5 inches. It is important to note that various members of different ensembles keep far western Kansas remarkable dry with hardly any snow (up to an inch). While probabilities range from unlikely to very unlikely, it is a potential outcome that can not be ruled out. The areas in between the Winter Storm Warning and a Winter Weather Advisory holds a lot of grey area in amounts. The areas included in the Winter Storm Warning was done conservatively with many counties likely needing and upgrade to the Winter Storm Warning before the event, but uncertainty (especially up by Ellis, Trego, and Ness counties) has kept those counties in a Winter Weather Advisory. As cumbersome as it is, those counties on the line may be riding a thin gradient of snowfall potentials. Total amounts in those counties may range from 3-8 inches and future updates/headlines will need to be monitored very closely for changes up to and during the event. The main fail points with the snowfall in the days prior was the path of the system and the duration that the environment is conducive for snowfall. QPF values have remained steady at around 0.5" and snow ratios around 15-20 (with some variation of both) providing more confidence in the highest amounts being 6-8" or even higher. The pathing was trending south initially, but has settled in a mostly consistent area roughly along the KS/OK border. Again small movements may drastically shift amounts 2-4 inches anywhere in the CWA. With the isentropic nature of the event, it was initially a concern that the snow would end too early and most areas would not get the heaviest snowfall rates as expected. Ensembles have not caught onto this pattern and while still possible, is increasingly unlikely. The combination of those two fail points becoming clearer, the forecast can more confidently call for multiple inches and the potential for over a foot of snow in some areas. Of course localized areas and areas with drifts may still see upper-end amounts. The snowfall that begins on Friday is forecast to be very light. Very little if any accumulations are expected before sunset Friday. The overnight into Saturday is when the heaviest snowfall rates are anticipated. This lines up favorably with the wind forecast of stronger winds on Friday and weakening on Saturday. This should eliminate nearly all blowing snow concerns and visibility issues although the heavier snowfall rates may be a hazard itself. The snowfall is expected to end around midday Sunday.

After Sunday, the snow and wind chill concerns will ease although accumulations may last for a few days in the snowiest areas. Highs into next week are forecast in the 30s, but are not too warm that the snow will melt very quickly. These highs may still change in the cases that the winter storm moves faster/slower, but at least some reprieve from the dangerous wind chills are expected. Ensembles keep this span dry through the forecast period and beyond.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 540 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

VFR flying conditions prevail across all terminals at the beginning of this TAF cycle. However, flying conditions will begin to deteriorate after 06Z with cigs at all terminals dropping to MVFR by late Friday morning. Additionally, winds will increase around that time frame from the current light and variable to the 13-18 kt range gusting to 23-28 kts out of the east-northeast. Towards the end of the period, light snow may have developed across southwest KS, potentially resulting in reduced visibility, but confidence in timing/location was too low to include in the TAFs.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Friday to noon CST /11 AM MST/ Sunday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081- 084>090. Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Friday to 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for KSZ030-031-043>045-061>063- 074>077-084>086. Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 AM CST Sunday for KSZ046-064>066-078>081-087>090.