textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Below normal temperatures will continue today, with highs in the mid-50s to mid-60s.

- Light rain showers are also expected today, favoring areas north of US-50 and west of US-283.

- Upper level pattern flip this weekend will bring increasing temperatures and dry conditions Saturday through Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1205 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Early morning water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal nearly zonal flow across the central plains, with a series of weak perturbations noted near the Great Basin and adjacent areas. KDDC radar observations show scattered light rain showers are beginning to trickle into western KS as the aforementioned weak impulses approach, and these are expected to increase in coverage through the overnight period into daytime Thursday as suggested by HREF members. However, QPF will be limited at best, with locations north of US-50 and west of US-283 favored for the most rainfall as HREF probability of QPF greater than or equal to 0.1" is in the 50-90% range across this area. Otherwise, overcast skies and precipitation will support below normal temperatures, with afternoon highs in the mid-50s out west to the mid-60s along our eastern zones.

Daytime Friday, HREF members suggest lingering precipitation favoring areas near the KS/CO border may exist through much of the day as northeasterly moist upslope flow aids in ascent, but HREF probability of QPF greater than or equal to 0.1" is 50% or less for all zones, so do not expect much. Synoptically, short range guidance indicates upper level ridging will begin to build west of the Rockies, which should promote warmer temperatures for southwest KS, however overcast skies and persistent light northeast winds will keep highs in the 60s.

Saturday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles agree upper level ridging west of the Rockies will be the driver of sensible weather across southwest KS through at least next Monday. As a result, dry conditions and a warming trend with highs increasing from the 70s on Saturday to the mid-80s on Monday is expected. Late in the period, ensembles suggest a strong upper level low will move into the southwestern CONUS, which could bring our next chance for precipitation around mid-week, but predictability at this range is very limited, rendering confidence in any scenario low.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

KDDC radar observations show light rain showers are beginning to materialize/trickle into southwest KS early this morning. Through the overnight period, this activity should continue to spread eastward into our area, and potentially impact DDC, GCK, and HYS, bringing MVFR cigs. Precipitation should dissipate and cigs should improve by sunset Thursday, with VFR flying conditions returning through 06Z Friday. Otherwise, winds will remain light and variable through this TAF cycle.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.