textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread accumulating rainfall possible on Tuesday. There is a 50 to 60% chance that rainfall totals Tuesday night will be greater than 0.25 inches west of highway 283.

- There will be a slight chance for severe thunderstorms late Tuesday with the main hazard being large hail and strong damaging wind gusts.

- Hot conditions with highs near 100 degrees in some areas on Monday and Tuesday will give way to cooler temperatures mid week. Highs on Wednesday will be mainly in the lower 90s but there is a 60-75% chance for highs to be less than 90 degrees along the I-70 corridor and around the Garden City area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Earlier this morning, an area of weakening convection was moving across north central Kansas as an upper level disturbance embedded in a 10-15 knot west/northwest flow crosses western Kansas. A 500mb high remains in place across the southwest United States while an upper level trough was located over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface a surface boundary extended from eastern Colorado to the Panhandle of Texas.

Models today remain in good agreement and have run to run consistency. These models show minimal movement of the surface boundary over the next 36 hours as the next subtle upper level trough rotates around the 500mb high and approaches western Kansas late today. As this upper level system moves out into the west central high plains late today there will be a chance for scattered afternoon thunderstorms over eastern Colorado and along the surface boundary which will be located near the Oklahoma Panhandle border which, if they develop, will move southeast. A few of the stronger storms early tonight may be capable of producing wind gusts of 50 to near 60 mph. As for the possible thunderstorms that may develop over eastern Colorado late today...they weaken and cross extreme southwest Kansas later tonight.

For the first few days of this upcoming work week the 500mb high over the southwest United states will move very slowly westward which will result in placing southwest Kansas on the northeast edge of the upper highs and in a northwest flow regime. Based on this southwest Kansas can look forward to multiple opportunities for scattered thunderstorms as additional upper waves rotate out of the Rockies and into the Plains. As for the storms on Monday...conditions are expected to be similar to those anticipated later tonight as the next upper level trough approaches from the west. Isolated wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph will be the main hazard before sunset across west of highway 83. A better chance for thunderstorms is expected late Tuesday as the next upper level trough moves across the Western High Plains. Latest ensembles continue to show strong consensus on timing and track of this next upper wave. This upper wave will be associated with the right entrance region of an upper level jet as it crosses the Northern Plains. Ahead of this Tuesday upper wave the ensembles indicate now a 50-60% probability of MUCAPE >500j/kg and bulk shear >30 knots over western Kansas along with southeasterly upslope flow of near 70 degree dewpoints.

Along with the slight chance for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday there will also be a chance for widespread beneficial rainfall to be possible for some areas of southwest Kansas from this Tuesday night event based on the high PWATS the ensembles forecast across southwest Kansas as storms develop and moves southeast along a moist instability axis. Current PWAT values are forecast to be near 1.5 inches (roughly 80% of normal). In addition to the high PWATS the latest NBM guidance has a 50 to 60% chance that rainfall totals Tuesday night will be greater than 0.25 inches west of highway 283.

This upper level trough crossing western Kansas Tuesday night will not only bring a +60% chance for thunderstorms to southwest Kansas Tuesday night but it will also allow a cold front to move into southwest Kansas on Wednesday. This cold front will briefly bring an end to the hot (near 100 degree) temperatures across southwest Kansas Monday and Tuesday. Highs mid week will be more seasonal with highs mainly in the lower 90s. Latest NBM even has a 60-75% chance for highs to be less than 90 degrees along the I-70 corridor and around the Garden City area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

VFR ceilings at or above 10000ft AGL along with some scattered thunderstorms will be possible for the next few hours in the Hays area as an upper level trough crosses western Kansas. These clouds and convection will move east of the area between 19 and 20z with skies clearing. Clear skies this afternoon across southwest Kansas will then give way to another increase in clouds at or above 12000ft AGL after sunset. Gusty southwest winds at near 20 knots this afternoon will decrease to 10 to 15 knots between 00z and 03z Monday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.