textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical Fire Weather conditions likely across all 27 counties of the NWS Dodge City area Monday and Tuesday afternoon/evening.

- No precipitation forecast with the first storm as all severe weather risk will remain east of southwest Kansas through Thursday.

- A second larger storm system will likely result in a fairly substantial severe weather risk late Friday across portions of central/south central Kansas (15% probabilistic outlook from SPC valid Friday afternoon/evening across eastern half to two-thirds of Kansas)

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

An active weather pattern will continue across the central CONUS through the end of the new week as back-to-back significant storm systems move across the midsection of the country. The first system coming out Monday Night-Tuesday will result in prolonged fire weather risk (discussed further in the Fire Weather section) as the main gulf moisture plume will advance northward too far to the east of southwest Kansas and even our Red Hills counties Comanche and Barber. The dryline will remain quasi-stationary from southeastern Nebraska down toward Wichita to southwestern Oklahoma (and beyond into Texas). The positive tilt to the system as it advances east is the primary reason why the dryline will remain so far to the east as this storm comes out. From a sensible weather standpoint, this means a very warm and dry southwest wind off the New Mexico higher terrain with afternoon temperatures well into the 80s both Monday and Tuesday (around 90/lower 90s in the typically hotter Red Hills region along the Oklahoma line).

The first storm system will move out mid-week and Wednesday will be a transition day with quite pleasant weather (light winds and slightly cooler temperatures). This quiet weather will be fleeting as the next large storm system will be making its run on the Great Plains by Friday. This will be a larger system with a slightly more favorable tilt to the trough axis to allow rich gulf moisture to pull back a little farther west. The moisture quality east of the developing dryline Friday will likely be very good -- surface dewpoint temperatures in the lower to mid 60s (degF) supporting high CAPE for severe (and even significant severe) thunderstorms. Dryline position late Friday will be critical, as usual, for hot/dry forecast vs. very warm/moist/severe weather forecast. Since Friday is still nearly a week away, the forecast position of the dryline is highly uncertain. That being said, the Storm Prediction Center does have a 15% probabilistic severe outlook extending as far west as a Coldwater to Larned line. This would be a one-shot risk (Friday late afternoon/evening) as a strong cold front will sweep south quickly Friday evening, pushing the gulf moisture way out of our region the next weekend into early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 510 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Expect generally southwesterly winds throughout the period as no major wind shifts are expected. Winds will increase into Monday 15-20 knots with higher gusts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

This afternoon's critical fire weather conditions were developing as of 19Z with Hugoton and Elkhart stations showing 8% RH and wind gusts to 27 knots. These critical conditions are expected to expand east-northeastward toward an Ulysses to to Sublette to Meade line before the sun gets low and deep mixing (higher wind gusts) abates. Widespread critical conditions are forecast both Monday and Tuesday as a strong storm system out West continues to make its approach toward Kansas. The surface low will deepen and move out across northwestern Kansas through Tuesday, which will keep southwest Kansas well within the hot/dry southwesterly downslope conditions leading to critical conditions. As such, we have upgraded the Fire Weather Watch Monday to a Red Flag Warning (all counties) and introduced a Fire Weather Watch (all counties) Tuesday. Tuesday's wind gusts will be slightly stronger than Monday as the pressure gradient further tightens with the low passing north along the Kansas- Nebraska line. Very deep mixing Tuesday afternoon will support wind gusts 40+ mph.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Monday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ061-062-074>076-084>086.