textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably mild/warm, above normal temperatures expected through Saturday.

- Minimal chances for light rain showers Wednesday night. Rainfall amounts of less than 0.10 inch are expected.

- More seasonable, cooler air is forecast to arrive behind another dry cold front Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

A quiet weather regime continued at midday with no hazards, headlines or impacts, and little to discuss. Infrared satellite imagery depicted widespread but thin cirrus/cirrostratus embedded in the quiet NWly flow aloft. Despite a weak pressure gradient and light winds, much warmer air at 850 mb will support temperatures well into the 70s this afternoon. Continued quiet with light winds tonight through Wednesday morning, with sunrise temperatures in the 30s.

Pleasant quiet weather continues Wednesday. Models show minimal cooling compared to Tuesday, but light SWly downslope, ahead of low pressure over NW KS, should compensate for that difference. Still expecting lower 70s to be common.

Models remain consistent forecasting the next cold front of Pacific origin passing Wednesday night, with elevated north winds. Guidance also shows continuity with some post-frontal lift, resulting in midlevel clouds, but this will be a moisture starved system. Can't discount some light rain showers in SW KS, but NBM pops are correctly trending downward. NBM probability of even just measurable rain (QPF > 0.01 inch) is only 20-30%. In other words, it is more likely most locations will receive only trace amounts/sprinkles or nothing at all. Slightly cooler Thursday, but still well above late February normals.

All models show strong warming Friday, enhanced by the return of SWly downslope. Expecting 70s to once again be common Friday afternoon, with even a 10% probability of exceeding 80 degrees per the latest NBM guidance.

Various models, and to various degrees, suggest cooler air will backdoor its way into SW KS during the weekend, or over the second half of the weekend. High confidence SW KS will remain dry, but temperatures will return to near normal for the beginning of March. NBM/WPC afternoon temperatures in the lower/mid 50s appear reasonable.

A trend to a wetter regime appears apparent in early March. The 6-10 outlook from CPC already highlights 50% probability of above normal precipitation March 1-5, and this will likely rise over the coming days. Long range deterministic GFS and ensembles are quite wet, with model consensus placing a southern stream cutoff cyclone near the Four Corners around March 5th. Not much more than conjecture this far out, but given gulf moisture availability and lack of cold air, significant rain may result around March 4-5th.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 510 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Current light and variable winds will continue through the overnight and morning periods, followed by an increase out of the southwest to 10-12 kts by 18-19Z.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.