textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Several t-storm episodes are forecast over the next week.

- Temperatures will generally be cooler than average for this time of year through Friday, followed by a warming trend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1246 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

The ongoing t-storm cluster is pushing a surface boundary (effective cold front) into Oklahoma. Cooler air can be expected today for areas that received heavy rain overnight (Dodge City north to Hays and eastward into central Kansas), with warmer temperatures in the southwest corner of the state. An anomalously strong mid to high level jet will be situated across the high plains today. T-storms will develop across the western high plains and progress into western Kansas in the evening. It is uncertain how far south and east this storm cluster will get as places like Scott City, Syracuse and Dighton have the best chance of rain. These storms could be severe with damaging winds and large hail.

Rain chances are lower for Monday as an effective front lingers across the southern plains. But with light upslope flow on the high plains, t-storms could still develop on the elevated terrain and move into western Kansas in the evening, particularly given the continued strong upper level flow for late June.

Active weather days are forecast for Tuesday through Thursday as air mass recovery occurs across southwest Kansas, along with persistent mid to high level flow across the Rockies. An upper level trough will be located over the upper Midwest, with a flat upper ridge over the Desert Southwest. Ample moisture will be in place for t-storms along with moist upslope low level flow. T-storms will likely form on the western high plains and progress eastward into Kansas.

By Friday the various ensemble means indicate an upper level trough developing over the western United States. A return to southerly winds is forecast, with warming temperatures. Also, very high dewpoints can be expected as we warm up and recent rains will lead to abundant evapo-transpiration. Given upper level ridging ahead of the western trough, heat indices could reach well above 100 in central Kansas where 70-75F dewpoints may reside. There is high uncertainty in the evolution of the upper level pattern after Friday as some ensemble suites progress the upper level trough eastward while others build a upper ridge over the plains.

In summary, over the next several days there are high chances of a few episodes of significant rains and severe weather across central and western Kansas. The grand ensemble shows high chances (70-90%) for total rains over 1" across central Kansas, with moderate chances across far western Kansas.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 500 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Lingering showers and thunderstorms will track southeastward through south central Kansas into northern Oklahoma by mid-morning. Meanwhile, prevailing MVFR/IFR cigs across portions of southwest Kansas are forecast to improve to VFR conditions through early afternoon as prevailing/developing low level stratus begins to slowly lift/scatter out later this morning. Northeasterly winds 10 to 20kt are forecast to develop west to east through this afternoon in wake of a surface low tracking southeastward across southwest Kansas into northern Oklahoma today.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.