textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for Highway 83 east to 283 corridor, up to I-70 until 10 AM CST.

- Multiple days of Near-Critical to Critical Fire Weather conditionsbecoming increasingly likely from Monday through Thursday. Tuesday continues to be of greatest concern given the magnitude of winds.

- Higher confidence (around 50%) in High Winds across at least the western third of the NWS DDC forecast area (generally Highway 83 west to the Colorado line). High Wind is defined as any wind gust 58 mph or greater or 40 mph sustained winds for an hour or more.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1000 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

In the near term late tonight through early Sunday morning, the greatest concern will be development of fog and how widespread any dense fog will be. The HRRR has been pretty consistent run-to-run since late this afternoon in portraying an axis of dense fog in the wake of our latest storm system. As of 0245Z, Nighttime Microphysics RGB was indicating a thinning out of low stratus cloud, and this combined with weakening north winds will allow more ideal radiational cooling to occur. Since temperatures were already at the dewpoint in most locations, fog is most likely to develop over a fairly large area. We have already indicated this in the Wx grids, but we will need to watch for possible issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory. Any dense fog in the morning hours Sunday should dissipate by 15Z (9AM CST) with sun returning to help warm things right back up into the lower to even mid 60s by mid-late afternoon (Elkhart could top out at 70). As the MSLP gradient increases late in the day, south-southwest winds will redevelop, strongest near the Colorado line at 15 to 25 mph.

A major pattern shift toward broad cyclonically-curved, significant Pacific polar jet stream out West will commence by early Tuesday, and the nose of the initial extended jet (160-170 knots at 250mb in its core) will push out across the Rockies and into the central High Plains during the day Tuesday. This will induce a deep, broad surface low to our north and a robust pressure gradient across western Kansas. This tight pressure gradient will extend into the mid troposphere, so very strong winds will exist through a significant depth of the troposphere. There is increasing confidence in High Winds (defined at peak wind gusts 58+ mph or 40 mph sustained winds) across a large portion of western Kansas, especially west of Highway 283. As of the time of this AFD issuance, we continue to have discussions with neighboring WFOs regarding a High Wind Watch issuance and if so, for how much of western Kansas. The downslope warming is likely to result in highs well into the mid to upper 70s Tuesday afternoon with a few 80-degree highs also possible.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 420 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Satellite imagery and surface observations at 1015z depicted widespread IFR/LIFR stratus, and areas of reduced visibility in fog. Dense fog continued at LBL/GCK as of 1015z. Poor flying conditions will continue through 15z Sun, with stratus, areas of fog, and light winds. After 15z Sun, VFR/SKC is forecast to return rapidly to all airports. After 18z Sun, south winds will increase at all airports, gusting 23-27 kts. After 00z Mon, south winds will remain elevated/gusty, enhanced by a nocturnal low level jet. Included LLWS in all TAFs after 00z Mon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1000 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

A multi-day fire weather risk is forecast through the upcoming week, and Tuesday appears to be the most critical day of the week. Following is the daily fire weather risk magnitude/threat area potential...

Monday: Mainly far southwest Kansas as the initial leeside low pressure develops. Strong southwest winds will take a while to develop, but the far 4-6 counties are at greatest risk near-critical to potentially critical fire weather conditions for a few hours late in the afternoon.

Tuesday: Widespread critical with even some high-end critical conditions likely. A Fire Weather Watch will be issued to focus on the threat this day. Peak wind gusts 50 to 60 mph will be possible across far west central and southwest Kansas, which will combine with minimum relative humidity down to around 15%.

Wednesday: The pressure gradient will relax briefly late Tuesday Night into early Wednesday, however a second leeside low will develop during the day day, putting southwest and west central Kansas counties, at risk for another afternoon of critical conditions on fairly strong southwest winds gusting 30 to 40 mph (especially along/west of Highway 83).

Thursday: A fairly strong cold front will finally push through, but since the air mass will not be all that cold, relative humidity in the afternoon will still fall down to 20-25% across a large area, down to 15% near the Oklahoma line on northwest winds as strong as 20-30 mph with higher gusts.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for KSZ030-031- 043>046-063>065-076>078-086-087. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088. Fire Weather Watch Tuesday afternoon for KSZ031-046-065-066- 079>081-089-090. High Wind Watch Tuesday afternoon for KSZ043-061>063-074>076- 084>086.