textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Near-normal temperatures return to southwest KS today with highs in the low to mid 70s.

- Much warmer Sunday and Monday with afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.

- Increasing confidence in widespread rainfall favoring the Tuesday night into Wednesday time frame.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Early morning water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal a fairly amplified pattern is in place atop the CONUS, with a deep trough east of the Rockies and a ridge to the west. Daytime Saturday, short range guidance agrees DNVA ahead of the ridge will result in an end to the below normal temperatures across southwest KS as subsidence maintains clear skies and temperatures warm into the low to mid 70s. Tonight, as surface high pressure slides southward into the southern plains, winds over our area will increase to around 10 mph out of the south-southwest. These downsloping winds will induce enough mixing overnight to keep Sunday morning lows in the low to mid 40s.

On Sunday, latest runs of the GFS, ENS Control, and their ensemble counterparts indicate the upper level ridge out west will begin to break down as a strong cut-off low impinges on the west coast. Nevertheless, the central plains will still remain under the ridge's influence as persistent subsidence and 10-20 mph southwesterly downsloping winds promote a noticeable jump in temperatures with afternoon highs spiking into the mid to upper 80s.

Monday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles agree the upper level cut-off low will continue eastward, merge with the longwave trough east of the Rockies by Wednesday morning, followed by renewed ridging west of the Rockies as the trough proceeds eastward. This synoptic evolution will yield above normal temperatures on Monday, a substantial cooldown Tuesday and Wednesday, along with precipitation chances as the core of the upper trough passes overhead, and a return of warmer temperatures Thursday and beyond. Regarding the precipitation potential, it currently appears the highest probability of QPF exists Tuesday night into Wednesday as NBM pops rise into the likely (55-74%) and definite (75- 100%) categories during this time period. The slow-moving nature of this upper wave and the ensemble run-to-run consistency engenders increasing confidence in beneficial rainfall for southwest KS. While ensembles are not suggesting this will be a drought busting event, mean QPF from the GEFS and ENS imply 0.25-0.5" of rainfall is possible.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Winds will remain light and variable through 06Z Sunday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT /7 AM MDT/ this morning for KSZ030-031-043>045-061>063-074>077-084>086.