textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild weekend

- Higher fire danger Monday

- Still watching precipitation potential next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1111 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

We will be undergoing split flow aloft today through Monday. The net result is a dry forecast and a tranquil weather pattern. Highs today will be in the 60s. Both afternoon relative humidity and sfc winds will be very marginal, and thus no major fire weather concerns are expected for today. The tranquil weather pattern will continue through Sunday morning. Lows tonight will range to near freezing along the northwest zones, and above freezing across the southeast zones.

The quiescent weather pattern continues Sunday. Highs will be warmer and in the 70s. Afternoon relative humidity of 10 to 20 percent will be likely across far southwest Kansas. The good news is that the sfc winds will continue to remain weak and this should put the kibosh on any major fire weather concerns for Sunday. Otherwise, lows heading into Monday morning will be warmer with values solidly in the 40s.

A lee low will continue across southeast Colorado Monday. This will result in a warm front extending across western Kansas. South of the warm front, the warmest highs and driest air mass is expected. The next day for high fire danger looks to be Monday across far southwest Kansas. Here, a Fire Weather Watch will probably be needed at some point, followed by a likely Red Flag Warning, if the fire danger trend continues as such. Otherwise, highs will solidly be in the 70s and lows still above freezing.

On Tuesday, a weak upper level wave is forecast to move across the state. Both the GEFS and ENS ensemble members are now indicating some light precipitation is possible with this wave. Many ensemble members do have light QPF forecast across southwest Kansas. The NBM chance pops Tuesday and into Wednesday look good for now since it is now in more agreement with the ensemble models.

The next shot at precipitation comes Thursday. Long term models and their ensemble counterparts are forecasting Gulf moisture to advect into Kansas. A front is forecast to be located somewhere across the state. Both the GEFS and ENS ensemble members show QPF developing along the front in the majority of ensemble members. The highest axis of precipitation location still remains to be seen and the ensemble members are forecasting the heaviest of the precip to be east and southeast of the FA. Still, it is nice that at least the ensembles is showing the potential for showers and storms during this period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1111 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

VFR is expected through TAF pd. NW/N winds will diurnally increase during the daylight hours in the 10-20 kt with higher gusts. Winds will decrease around 10 kt once again by dusk.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.