textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- More heavy rain is expected today for parts of central and southwest Kansas, with some potential for flooding.

- The coolest temperatures of the season are forecast for Saturday morning, with lows in the 40s.

- After today, a stretch of dry weather will last through at least next weekend, with warm temperatures for all of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 121 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Weak upslope northeast winds will allow for fog formation this morning at KDDC and KGCK, which may be slow to burn off today given the moist low levels, cloud cover and upslope winds. An upper level low and associated 700-300mb cold pool will move northeastward into south central Kansas today, with temperatures in that layer cooling about 5C from today's values. A cold front will move across southwest Kansas late this morning through late this afternoon, with north winds gusting as high as 35 mph. T-storms will form along the front and also ahead of the front given the mid to upper level cooling and surface based CAPE values of at least 1000 j/kg. Low level shear will be absent today as winds will be light to easterly from the surface up through 500mb. Better high level shear may allow for some persistent updrafts, with some potential for small hail. In the wake of the front, storms will be elevated, with a transition to stratiform rain that will taper off from northwest to southeast. The flood watch was maintained for today despite the lack of flooding so far. Given the saturated conditions and expected slow storm movement, additional heavy rains could lead to flooding in the watch area. Temperatures won't get above the 60s for locations that have a frontal passage by mid to late morning, with 70s across south central Kansas. With the strong north winds, it will feel chilly.

Lows are expected to be in the 40s across far western Kansas tonight after skies clear, with 40s across most of central and western Kansas by Saturday morning. A warming trend will commence by the weekend, with highs warming into the 80s by early next week. All of the ensemble means show the mid to high level westerlies across the northern tier of states, with weak upper ridging across the southern Rockies and western high plains. The warm pattern will stick around through at least next Saturday and possibly into Sunday before the next cold front arrives.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 615 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Surface observations show LIFR cigs across all terminals early Thursday morning, along with some IFR vis at GCK and HYS where some patchy fog has developed. Over the next several hours, little to no improvement is expected as another round of widespread rainfall with embedded thunderstorms moves through southwest KS, accompanied by an increase in winds out of the north into the 18-23 kt range gusting to 28-33 kts. Precipitation will begin to erode from west to east this afternoon/evening, with cigs recovering to VFR at all terminals except LBL. This will be followed by a relaxing of the winds to aob 12 kts by 03-06Z Friday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046- 061>065-074>078-084>087.