textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- An active, wet pattern will continue through Friday, with periodic rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms will produce severe wind gusts, large hail, and locally heavy/flooding rainfall.

- A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for all of southwest Kansas until 1 AM Friday morning. Additional rainfall from the next thunderstorm complex, on saturated soils, may lead to excessive runoff and flooding concerns.

- Additional scattered thunderstorms Thursday through Friday will continue to pose a severe wind, hail, tornadoes and locally heavy rain risk.

- Below normal afternoon temperatures will continue through Friday.

- A distinct pattern change is expected this weekend and early next week, with much hotter afternoons, rain chances ending, and strong south winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1216 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

The upper-level synoptic pattern remains relatively unchanged with a low pressure dominates the upper-CONUS and a high pressure system resides along the Texas/Mexico border. Nearer to the surface, a continued wet pattern is present with a shortwave located around northeastern Colorado. This system is aiding in the generation of numerous severe storms in northeast Colorado and into southwest Nebraska. The focus on the forecast continues to be on potential convection tonight and tomorrow with tonight being in a SPC enhanced risk and a widespread slight risk for tomorrow. Pleasant highs are forecast over these two days, primarily around 80 degrees.

A flood watch is in effect tonight from 1 AM tonight until 1 AM on Friday morning. This comes with two distinct rounds of precipitation on Friday. The first comes later tonight with the ongoing convection in Colorado/Nebraska. It is expected that the storms continue to grow spatially and move southeastward towards the CWA. It is hard to not immediately compare the situation to last night, where benign showers developed ahead of the stronger storms and polluted the favorable environment leaving SW Kansas without severe storms. The focus on tonight is whether the storms reach the CWA at severe strength. Ensembles and CAMs alike are excited about storms chances in some shape and form. From a high level perspective, one of two main outcomes are expected. The first is similar to last night where the storms fizzle out somewhat before reaching the CWA and while more storms develop, the lack of organization keeps most if not all storms below severe criteria (closer to how the NAMNST tracks). The alternatively likely solution is the ongoing storms eventually develop a strong cold pool and the organization upticks significantly creating a more MCS structure. If this happens, severe hail and damaging wind gusts of 70+ mph is possible. Model soundings have a favorable environment of: CAPE values around 2000 J/kg, deep-layer shear of 40-50 KTs, and a strong southeasterly LLJ at 30-35 KTs. If the organization occurs the environment will be support of strong storms. Recent CAM trends suggest a maxima may strengthen around the Scott City/Garden City area, but great uncertainty still exists. Regardless of how severe the storms reach, flooding is a concern everywhere. Especially with the ground being saturated last night across SW Kansas, storms are expected to take advantage of precipitable water values between 1.5-2". Areas that see heavy precipitation or training storms is expected to see localized flooding concerns, especially in flood prone areas. Ensure there is a way to receive updates/warnings if these potential storms present a concern.

After a short reprieve, Thursday afternoon is forecast to have another round of convection. CAMs disagree wildly on the exact placement and coverage, but the environment will similarly be support of strong storms with hazards of all types albeit potentially more favorable; CAPE of 3000 J/kg, surface to 1km SRH at 300 m2/s2, and deep-layer shear of 60 KTs from NAMNST modeled soundings. This is especially true as the storms reach the southeastern portion of the CWA near the Oklahoma border. Unlike the last few nights, these storms are forecast to be more isolated with a more supercellular mode (with CAMs giving very high supercell composite values). The SPC has a hatched 5% tornado risk for this area reflecting the very favorable environment the CAMs are presenting. A lot of this risk may be contingent on tonights system and how quickly the environment is able to recover especially if the low and dense cloud cover sticks around well into the daytime Thursday. Friday also has hints of more convection in far SW Kansas, but more temporal uncertainty will need to be eliminated before providing clear details.

Saturday onward the pattern shifts significantly. Dry weather will persist with highs reaching upwards towards 100 degrees. This will crest on Sunday where ensembles have nearly the entire area at a >50% chance for triple digit highs and means in the southwestern counties towards 105 degrees. There will also be stronger winds across SW Kansas through this period with sustained winds of 20-30 KTs. Far SW Kansas will have a few days of low relative humidities, but the heavy precipitation will quell most of the fire weather risk. Otherwise, traditional fire weather precautions are advised.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1142 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Shortly into the period, around 8-10Z, storms are expected to descend from the northwest and impact all sites either with precipitation or lowered ceilings. Lowered flight conditions to at least MVFR is forecast. Following the storms hosts some uncertainty. Around 15Z most of the storms are expected to clear, but may linger around HYS for longer. Additionally later in the period (around 22- 2Z, more storms are forecast and will be in the vicinity of nearly all sites with a return of lowered ceilings. This is especially true for LBL. Future TAFs will provide more clarity on the ceilings and location of the precipitation.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through late tonight for KSZ030-031-043>046- 061>066-074>081-084>090.