textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe weather potential tonight along and east of a Liberal to Larned line

- Cooler temperatures for Sunday and Monday

- 100 degree weather returns for the middle of next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

18Z synopsis shows an upper level shortwave in the 500-700 mb range extending from western Kansas into eastern Colorado and a subsequent surface low with frontal boundaries located from around Scott City, KS to Springfield, CO. Ahead of the front compressional heating is causing early afternoon temperatures to increase into the low 90s and we should be on our way to forecast highs of near 100 by late afternoon.

Tonight short term models and CAMs are continuing to indicate movement of the cold front to be located along the US-56 corridor by late afternoon and early evening and with the subsequent 700 mb shortwave in this area we should see the lift and moisture (dew points 60 and above) needed for thunderstorm development around 5 PM. Skew T soundings show DCAPE values over 1500 J/kg and bulk shear values in our far east zones to be in the 30-40 kt range. Storms should grow upscale quickly along the front that the hail threat will be concentrated in the first few hours and then the damaging wind threat will take over. With the forecast position of the front this should line up well with the current SPC slight risk that is located along and east of a Liberal to Larned line. Post frontal winds should also be breezy with a tightening pressure gradient and subsequent runs of the HRRR have been increasing post frontal gusts to 40-50 mph around the Dodge City area this evening. The initial round of storm should move into south central Kansas and northern Oklahoma by around 10 pm and then a second wave will move through western Kansas that could lead to another round of rain by sunrise. With the cooler and more stable air this round of precipitation should have much thunder with it.

Sunday and into Monday temperatures should be cooler with highs in the 70s. Upper level flow will be out of the northwest and boundary layer winds will be easterly both days. Rain chances could return on Monday with a shortwave embedded in the northwest flow moving into Kansas however there is low confidence in where the precipitation will develop so I kept POPs around 10-20%.

Long term ensembles show a building ridge over the western CONUS and the return of southwest winds near the surface starting on Tuesday. By Wednesday the core of the hotter air should enter into southwest Kansas with forecast 850 mb temperatures in the 30-34 (C) range. NBM mean MaxT on Wednesday is in the 102-105 range and the 75% is in the 106-108 range. This leads to higher confidence we will have one of the warmest days of the year so far on Wednesday. The heat event should be short lived as a cold front is forecast to come in for Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A cold front and storm system will move through southwest Kansas late this afternoon and into the evening. Post frontal winds will increase to 20-30 kts sustained and gusts near 40 kts around DDC, GCK, and HYS between 20Z-01Z and LBL between 00Z-03Z. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the front around 22Z and could lead to VCTS for LBL and DDC between 22-01Z. Another upper level wave will move through southwest Kansas during the overnight hours and spotty rain showers and storms will be possible for all terminals between 09-13Z with cloud ceilings potentially falling to near MVFR levels.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ090.