textproduct: Dodge City
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- A warming trend can be expected through this weekend, with temperatures possibly reaching near 100 degrees by Sunday and Monday.
- There are chances for t-storms by early and mid next week, along with slightly cooler temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 109 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
A return to south winds is expected over the next 24 hours as the mid level flow becomes zonal, encouraging lee troughing. However, an upper level trough traversing the northern plains will push a weak front through Kansas early Saturday. But this front will move back north as a warm front Saturday night as moderate mid level westerly flow develops and again encourages surface troughing in the lee of the Rockies. This pattern is favorable for a low level warm plume edging downslope onto the high plains. As a result, temperatures will likely reach close to 100 for Sunday and Monday, after topping out in the upper 80s to 90s for Friday and Saturday. The record highs at Dodge City are 100 for both days.
A small cooldown is possible by Tuesday and Wednesday as another upper level trough traverses the northern plains and pushes a weak cold front into Kansas. There are chances of t-storms along and behind the front Monday afternoon into Tuesday. The best chance of t-storms is across central Kansas where the grand ensemble indicates 20-30% chances for .5" or greater of rain for the Monday night to Tuesday night time frame.
Temperatures by mid to late next week have considerable uncertainty as the various ensemble suites differ on the strength of the upper level ridge over the Deep South and southern plains. This also has implications on rain chances given that rich low level moisture would accompany any frontal passage.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026
Weak surface high pressure will gradually be replaced by a surface trough in the lee of the Rockies. As a result, light winds will become southeasterly and then southerly through the period. However, a weak pressure gradient will generally keep winds 10-12 kts or less. Lingering MVFR CIGS at KHYS will gradually become VFR as daytime heating dries out the lower levels.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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