textproduct: Dodge City
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Southwest Kansas is expected to remain mainly dry for the upcoming week.
- After seasonably hot temperatures Saturday afternoon, a rapid heating trend is expected Sunday and Monday afternoons with 100+ degree readings returning.
- Very hot afternoons will continue through next weekend, hotter than NBM guidance.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026
The upper-level low pressure previously over Minnesota has dug deeper into Illinois. This is paired a continued high pressure system over the southwestern CONUS. Nearer to the surface, high pressure continues to reside and keep skies clear with fairly light winds. Tomorrow is forecast to warm back up towards triple digit highs with the warmest areas in the far western portions of Kansas. Light winds and pleasant weather will accompany the early August heat.
Monday is forecast to be the hottest day this week with highs near the Colorado border up to 108 degrees. Highest areas of apparent temperatures in those areas are around 104/105 degrees... With 105 being the criteria for a Heat Advisory, it will need to be monitored closely. Whether or not it meets precise criteria, it will be hot and traditional heat precautions are strongly advised. Hydration and cooling breaks are encourage not just Monday, but every day this week with the summer heat.
Tuesday onward sees continued heat and occasional periods of slight (10-25%) probability chances. Tuesday will start cooler back in the 90s, but through Saturday are expected to be of similar temperatures, warming about a degree per day with ending around 100- 105 degrees. Especially Tuesday and Wednesday will see the highest precipitation chances in the western/northwestern counties and near the Colorado border. Ensemble percentages reach as high as 30%. Still a healthy amount of uncertainty remains in both scope and strength, but the current expectation is if there is a severe threat it will be very limited.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period. With a continued column of high pressure, skies are forecast to remain mostly clear with a light (5-10 KTs) and variable wind to start the period. Around 15Z the winds are expected to strengthen out of the south/southeast.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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