textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- A large mid-level anticyclone will prevail over the greater region for the next several days

- As a result, hot and primarily a dry weather pattern will continue for the rest of the week and into the weekend

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the Highway 183 corridor and eastward until 8 PM Sunday

- There is a small chance (20-40% via ensembles) of storms Friday and Saturday evening in the western zones, but the rest of the FA should remain dry

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1112 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

The synoptic pattern aloft is still dominated by a massive high pressure system over the southeastern portion of the CONUS. A low pressure system continues to deepen dramatically just off of the Pacific Northwest. A very weak axis of low pressure persist in western Kansas. Despite this, convection has not materialized in Kansas. Some very weak showers have developed in eastern Colorado, but even if it clips the CWA in the coming hours the impact will be minimal.

Heat continues to be the headline over the coming days. A Heat Advisory is in effect from now until 8 PM Sunday. This included the Highway 183 corridor and eastward. Even if the criteria is not met at an apparent temperature of 105 degrees, the prolonged span of heat warrants the advisory. Highs Friday will primarily be around 100-102 degrees with apparent temperatures up 107 degrees in the eastern counties. Outside of the blistering heat, the other focus of the forecast period is the storm chances Friday and Saturday. Both days, CAMs continue to show inconsistent signals of convection. Especially Friday is still progged to be primarily scattered storms. Just enough environmental ingredients in NAM forecast soundings (1200 J/kg CAPE, 30 KTs shear, and low level lapse rates of 10 C/km). If the storms organize, the strongest could approach severe criteria with 50+ mph wind gusts and penny sized hail. That said the expectation is that the storms will remain well below severe levels. The storms will form in western Kansas and out of Colorado around 5 PM. How long and how far east the storms make it is under substantial CAM disagreement. Tomorrow's forecast will have a better grasp on the situation. Relative humidity minimums are forecast to stay away of headline criteria at above 20%. However with wind gusts of up to 20-25 mph out of the south, elevated conditions may develop in far western Kansas in the late afternoon.

Saturday is currently forecast to be a couple degrees cooler, but still around the triple digit range. The storm potential will nearly perfectly replicate Friday. Storms developing and moving in from Colorado in the early evening with an uncertain lifespan and eastward extent. Forecast soundings suggest there may be more CAPE and less shear available. Without the same amount of shear, the severe chances (that were already low) drop significantly. This is still subject to change in future forecasts, but just how the storms are looking currently.

Sunday through Tuesday will continue to be hot with highs in the upper 90s, but with even less chances for precipitation. With relative humidities staying above 20%, no headlines are expected over that stretch after the Heat Advisory expiring Sunday. The past couple days, ensembles have been bullish on Wednesday's precipitation. These chances have dropped significantly. What originally appeared like a widespread 20-40% opportunity is now only a 10-20% chance and reserved for the northeast zones. More monitoring will be needed especially if these drier trends continue.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 425 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF period, with VFR, varying amounts of mid/high clouds, and light winds. After 18z Fri, southeast winds will gust 20-25 kts at all airports through sunset. Models suggest isolated thunderstorms west of US 83 during the 00-06z Sat time range. With most or all activity remaining west of GCK/LBL, opted to keep this set of TAFs dry.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ031-046-065-066- 079>081-089-090.