textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening east of highway 283. Main risk will be hail 2 or larger and wind gusts 70 mph or greater. There will also be a chance for a few tornadoes.

- On Monday there will be a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms will the main hazards being strong winds and large hail.

- There will be an extended period of wet weather across southwest Kansas this upcoming work week. Accumulating rainfall likely from the almost a daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall across southwest Kansas by WPC for Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1106 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A 500 mb trough was located over New Mexico this Saturday morning. An area of low pressure at the surface was positioned over eastern Colorado, with a stationary front extending east southeast into southwest Kansas. This upper level trough will lift northeast into southwest Kansas today resulting in the surface low deepening and the surface boundary lifting northeast toward Nebraska as a warm front. A dryline will also sharpen as it moves into southwest Kansas by late afternoon. Along each boundary there will be a chance for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms late today due to enhanced lift from the approaching upper trough, afternoon heating/increase instability, and low level forcing along each of these boundaries. Large hail (>2 inches) and strong damaging winds of greater than 70 mph currently appears to be primary hazards given the forecast instability and shear. A few tornadoes will also be possible along the warm front that will extend from north central Kansas into south central Kansas late day based on the forecast low LCLs, forecast area of better 2-5km updraft helicity and low level shear.

Latest CAMS earlier today seem to be in general agreement with storm development mainly after 21z today east of Highway 283. However a few isolated storms may occur as early as 19z along the dry line which is currently forecast to be located near Dodge City.Should storms develop that early in the day along the dry line the main hazards will be hail and strong damaging wind. As they move northeast towards the warm front the risk of tornadoes will increase given the improving shear development in the lower levels by the latest models. All models appear to be in good agreement with these storms exiting the Dodge City county warning area by 9pm as the upper level trough lifts north across southwest Kansas.

For the rest of Tonight...the upper trough will continue to track northeast into Nebraska as a surface cold front moves across southwest Kansas. Cooler air will filter in behind this front overnight, but downslope warming during the day on Sunday will largely offset this cooling potential as an upper ridge builds into the area from the west. As a result, Sunday will be another warm day, with afternoon highs climbing into the 90s.

On Monday we will once again monitor a chance for afternoon and evening strong to severe thunderstorms as the upper level ridge shifts slightly further east, allowing a southwest flow to return to the West Central High Plains. Another upper level wave embedded in this flow will approach from the west during the day, resulting in falling pressures along the lee of the Rockies which will allow a moist southeast flow to return as a surface boundary lifts back back north into the area by late afternoon. Forecast shear will not be as strong as this evening (Saturday). However, isolated storms will be possible along and north of this boundary given the afternoon instability and low level lift. Should storms develop, there will be a marginal risk for large hail and strong, gusty winds.

Looking ahead for the remainder of the work week...The upper level ridge will linger over the Central United States through at least mid week just east of western Kansas. As a result southwest Kansas on the western edge of this ridge axis as a moist southeast flow develops in the lower levels. This will allow moisture to increase across the area. This position will also allow any upper level wave embedded in the southwest flow will cross southwest Kansas. Given this enhanced upper level lift combined with moisture return and improving isentropic lift north of a nearly stationary surface boundary, this setup will bring an extended period of daily rain chances to southwest Kansas.Based on the expected near daily chances for rainfall next week combined we will have to monitor the risk localize water issues by the middle of the work week. At this time confidence is high enough that the WPC has already issued a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Tuesday/Wednesday across southwest Kansas. This means there is a 5% to 10% chance that upcoming rainfall from repeated thunderstorms will exceed flash flood guidance next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1106 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A dryline near or east of Dodge City will bring isolated thunderstorms between 21Z today and 00Z Sunday. Hays has a higher thunderstorm risk from 21Z today to 02Z Sunday because it will be located north of a warm front. These storms in Hays may produce strong damaging winds exceeding 60 knots along with hail. Only the strong winds threat will be included in the 18Z TAFs at this time due to high confidence on the wind gust potential verses hail. Garden City and Liberal, located west of the dryline, are not expected to see any convection. Ceilings are forecast to remain VFR throughout the day and tonight based on BUFR soundings and latest LAMP guidance. Winds will be south at 15 to 20 knots today, decreasing to 10 to 15 knots overnight. A cold front will cross late tonight/early Sunday, shifting winds to the north, potentially bringing a brief 13 hour period of stratus or fog.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.