textproduct: Dodge City
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Decreasing clouds and cooler Mother's Day afternoon.
- Dry weather with a rapid warming trend Monday through Thursday.
- Hot and windy Thursday, approaching 100 degrees with strong south winds and critical wildfire risk.
- Southwest Kansas will remain dry this week, with drought conditions persisting and expanding.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026
An upper level trof will move across the state today. This feature will spark of scattered showers and thunderstorms for the first half of today. The disturbance will start to clear the area by the afternoon. As a result, expect shower activity to diminish as the day continues. Highs today will be fairly cool with values peaking in the 60s. A northeast wind of 8 to 18 mph will prevail through much of the day. Lows tonight will be chilly with values bottoming out in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
500 hPa heights start to increase across the greater region Monday onward. In fact, shortwave ridging is expected to amplify across Kansas Wednesday and Thursday. This dry pattern is both supported by both the GEFS and the ENS. The net result is a dry and very warm to very hot forecast. The hottest of highs is expected Thursday, where upper 90s will be likely. Otherwise we will start out with 70s and 80s Monday and end up in the 90s towards the end of the business week. Lows will trend warmer through the week as well with values starting out in the 30s and 40s Monday, but ending up in the 60s to around 70F towards the end of the week. Both ensemble models (GEFS/ENS) support the notion of a thunderstorm-free forecast.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026
Strong subsidence behind a departing shortwave will clear the sky rapidly over the next few hours, with VFR/SKC expected at all airports no later than 00z Mon. Light rain in progress at DDC at 15z will end shortly. Northeast winds of 10-20 kts this afternoon will trend light and variable after 00z Mon, in response to surface high pressure building over Kansas through sunrise Monday. Excellent flying weather is expected Monday, with VFR/SKC continuing, and light south winds in the afternoon.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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