textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- A few thunderstorms will be possible southwest KS mainly after sunset tonight and could linger into Thursday morning

- Much warmer temperatures will return for the weekend with mainly dry conditions

- More widespread precipitation chances return Tuesday night

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Stratus has been persistent across the northern half of southwest Kansas in the post cold front environment, holding temperatures down some through midday, though where clouds have erroded temps have warmed quickly. The stationary frontal boundary was very clearly outlined by surface observations at midday, straddling the Kansas/Oklahoma border. August sunshine will continue to erode the stratus through the remainder of the afternoon.

Tonight, the stationary front will lift very slowly back northward as a warm front into southwest Kansas. Moistening at low and mid levels will result in elevated instability and scattered thunderstorm development. In general, rainfall amounts of 0.10-0.25" will be more common, though isolated amounts closer to 0.50" or slightly higher would be possible in the stronger storms. Precip chances will be highest along and north of the developing mid level frontogenetic region overnight, getting as high as 50-60% in those areas.

Thursday the long wave trough axis will shift slightly eastward allowing for modest height rises across the southern Rockies and into far southwest KS. This will create a stronger flow regime over western KS during the day and will allow for decent deep layer shear and with increasing low level moisture, modest instability through the day. With the building upper ridge to the west, differential radiational cooling will allow for the development of a nocturnal low level jet which should again lead some potential for thunderstorms development overnight Thursday into Friday, however coverage will be more limited.

Friday and beyond...an expanding southwestern U.S. upper ridge will signal a much drier period with large scale subsidence prevailing. This will also lead to afternoon highs around the 100 degree mark and slightly above for the weekend into the first of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 606 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Low stratus and patchy fog development is expected overnight, particularly for terminals near the I-70 corridor. This will bring periods of MVFR/locally IFR CIGs and visibilities overnight, with conditions expected to improve after sunrise tomorrow. In addition, scattered thunderstorm development remains possible overnight, primarily along a Tribune to Medicine Lodge line. This could lead to periods of MVFR visibilities with any thunderstorms. Any lingering thunderstorms exit the area prior to sunrise.

Winds remain east-northeast overnight, at 5 to 10kts. Winds then strengthen from the south tomorrow afternoon, with gusts as high as 20 to 25kts expected for southwest Kansas terminals.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.