textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- There are small chances for thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evenings, especially Thursday, Saturday and Sunday.

- After a temperate day Wednesday, expect hot weather Thursday through Sunday with highs mainly in the 90s.

- The best chance of severe t-storms is Sunday afternoon and evening along and east of a line from WaKeeney to Dodge City.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1112 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

An upper level disturbance traversing the northern plains has pushed a cold front through western Kansas. However, with another upper trough coming onshore in the Pacific Northwest Wednesday afternoon along with west-northwest mid level downslope trajectories, this front will stall out from southern Colorado into the Texas Panhandle. Upper level ridging ahead of this next system, a strong mid level capping inversion and the lack of low level convergence will likely preclude t-storm development across southwest Kansas Wednesday evening; and any storms that form to the south and west of Kansas will move slowly eastward to southeastward and stay away from the southwest corner of the state. With the front to the south of Kansas and upslope low level winds, temperatures will only reach into the lower to mid 80s Wednesday.

By Thursday the shortwave trough will be traversing the northern plains. A plume of westerly downslope flow will get shunted east into southwest Kansas during the afternoon. The various ensemble means indicate a thermal low over southwest Kansas near the strongest downslope flow. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 90s, with the hottest readings near the Oklahoma state line where the strongest downslope will be. This terrain and downslope forced low typically forms along the 37th parallel, with the hottest air along and south of the Oklahoma state line. But if the model solutions are correct, even places like Dodge City could reach near 100 degrees. Despite the marginal low level moisture with dewpoints in the 30s and 40s, high based showers/t-storms may form with daytime heating near the thermal low and move eastward, with best chances from Ulysses to Meade to Coldwater. The low level air will be so dry that rain may evaporate before reaching the ground, resulting in only virga. However, marginally severe wind gusts are possible given the inverted-V thermal profiles.

On Friday a southern stream upper level trough will pass to the south of Kansas, with the southern edge of the main belt of westerlies across Kansas. A weak thermal low will still be situated near the KS/OK state line, with the hottest air over the panhandles. Any isolated high based t-storms should be confined to the state line southward.

An upper level trough will form over the western United States Saturday and Sunday and then eject into the northern plains and upper Midwest Monday. A dry line is expected to be situated across central and southwest Kansas each day. The best chance of t-storms is on Sunday, especially for central Kansas from Hays southward to Pratt; but any westward shift in the dry line would move the severe storm risk westward to Dodge City and WaKeeney. Sunday is the favored day for any high-end severe storms with very large hail and severe winds (whether tornadic or non-tornadic). This pattern does not favor widespread beneficial rains, but the rain could be locally heavy for spots that experience t-storms. Expect hot weather Saturday and Sunday with highs in the mid 90s. It will be more humid and slightly cooler in central Kansas and drier in the far west.

There is considerable uncertainty with the large scale pattern after Sunday, with the ensemble means generally keeping upper level troughing over the western United States. How far south a cold front progresses depends on the strength of Sunday and Monday's ejecting shortwave trough. A weaker solution would keep the front over southern Kansas along with chances for t-storms while a stronger trough would push a cold front through, with cooler and drier air.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 536 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through late evening. Light easterly winds through mid-morning are expected to turn more southeasterly while increasing 15 to 25kt generally after 15-17Z as surface high pressure in Nebraska moves east into the Upper Midwest. Gusts up to 30kt are possible as the surface high shifts farther east.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.