textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy southerly winds today will help afternoon highs rise a few degrees into the upper 60s/low 70s.

- Lighter southerly winds on Monday, but afternoon highs will remain in the upper 60s/low 70s.

- Warm and dry through the business week, but cooler temperatures and perhaps some precipitation could be in store over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis late Saturday evening reveal weak ridging is in place from the southern plains through the central plains between a pair of shortwave troughs over the central east coast and just offshore of the southern west coast. At the surface, modest high pressure centered over the Midwest is spread out through the southern and central plains, resulting in southerly winds across southwest KS. While these winds will stay somewhat elevated overnight, clear skies should help radiational cooling in allowing temperatures to drop into the upper 30s/low 40s by sunrise Sunday morning. Daytime Sunday, the aforementioned upper ridge and western shortwave trough will dampen as they move eastward, yielding broad southwesterly mid- level flow across the central and southern Rockies. Weak lee cyclogenesis will occur in response over eastern CO, which will support 15-25 mph southerly winds gusting to 35 mph across the central plains. This along with 850-mb temperatures warming by 1-3 degrees C will translate to afternoon highs ticking up a bit into the upper 60s/low 70s. Sunday night, elevated southerly winds and clear skies will support Monday morning lows in the low to mid 40s.

Daytime Monday, little to no change in the synoptic pattern is forecast by short range ensembles, as broad southwesterly flow persists across much of the western CONUS. Although, a powerful trough will begin to impinge on the west coast by 06Z Tuesday. Therefore, nearly identical weather is expected on Monday with highs in the upper 60s/low 70s, the only difference being lighter southerly winds owing to the weak lee cyclone in eastern CO washing out.

Tuesday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles agree the significant upper trough will make little progress eastward through Friday morning as a ridge amplifies downstream, but it finally gains some eastward momentum daytime Friday and into the weekend. This synoptic evolution will yield a dry, warming trend through much of the business week, with afternoon highs increasing from the low 70s on Tuesday to the upper 70s/low 80s by Thursday, followed by a slight cooling trend into the weekend. Precipitation chances may also return associated with the potent wave, however confidence remains low courtesy of predictability issues at that range. For what it's worth, the NBM does have some reasonably widespread slight chance (15-24%) pops with some low-end chance (25- 54%) pops sprinkled in, but these should still be taken with a grain of salt.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1120 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Current southerly winds aoa 12 kts will persist overnight, but increase into the 15-20 kt range gusting to 30 kts by mid-morning and continue through sunset. After sunset, winds will weaken down into the 11-14 kt range.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.