textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry through Wednesday afternoon.

- Cool temperatures expected sunrise Wednesday, in the 30s, with areas of frost possible, pending cloud cover.

- Areas of beneficial rain expected Thursday and Friday, favoring the western and southwest counties.

- Severe thunderstorms not expected across SW KS for the foreseeable future, well into May, unusual for this time of year.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A quiet night across SW KS, with light northeast winds, as cool surface high pressure builds southward over Nebraska. Short term models spread stratus southward to cover most of SW KS by sunrise, which will act to deter radiational cooling to a degree. Still, cool advection will allow many locations to fall into the upper 30s Tuesday morning, with mid 30s northwest zones near Scott City.

Morning stratus will scatter out midday Tuesday, but despite the late April sunshine, afternoon temperatures will be about 10 degrees below late April normals, in the lower 60s. 00z MET/NAM appears to be too cold, while 00z MAV/GFS appear too warm, so the forecast in the lower 60s represents a compromise. Locations adjacent to Oklahoma will achieve upper 60s this afternoon.

Cool surface high pressure builds directly southward through sunrise Wednesday, with a 1025 mb center over SW KS. Clouds are expected to be increasing Wednesday morning, so radiational cooling will not be optimal. Still, mid 30s will be common sunrise Wednesday, with areas of frost possible pending cloud cover. Continued dry and pleasant Wednesday with light winds.

Models remain consistent suggesting rain showers spreading into SW KS Thursday. NBM pops are still very high, in the likely to definite categories (70-90%) favoring the western zones. NBM probability of QPF > 0.10 is above 80% west of US 83 Thursday. That said, am concerned NBM pops are too high. The warm advection lifting process may be quite fleeting, as a northern stream shortwave sinks southward, and phases with a southern stream cyclone over New Mexico by Friday morning. This synoptic evolution would bring widespread beneficial rainfall to New Mexico and West Texas, also experiencing widespread drought. Certainly by Friday, widespread stratiform rain will center on Texas, but with all or most of the rain falling south of the Kansas/Oklahoma border. Unfortunately, we have to keep our rainfall expectations low for rain in this time frame, despite very high pops in the forecast.

Synoptic pattern looks very hostile toward severe thunderstorm development for the next 2 weeks, through at least May 10th. Warm moist gulf air will not have access to SW KS anytime soon, quite unusual going into May.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 544 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A batch of lower clouds will move through western Kansas this morning leading to MVFR flight category through 18Z. Clouds should lift and exit after 18Z and lead to a return to VFR flight category for all terminals.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.