textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorm potential today

- Higher-end severe weather potential exists for Sunday, with all hazard significant severe possible

- Pleasant start to next week; possible freezing temperatures Tuesday morning

DISCUSSION

Issued at 119 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

The main stories for this forecast will be the severe weather risks today and Sunday across parts of the forecast area.

Today's setup will feature an isolated to widely scattered severe weather risk, mainly across eastern portions of the forecast area. Only modest moisture return is expected, with dew points primarily remaining in the 50s. This combined with a cold front and increasing flow aloft from an approaching subtle shortwave could give rise to thunderstorm development late this afternoon and into the evening. While removed from the greatest flow and richest moisture, deep layer shear and moderate instability could still lead to at least some risk for hail and damaging winds with any potential activity. Tornado risk would be largely negligible given very weak low-level shear and storm relative-helicity as shown by point soundings across various CAM guidance.

Sunday is still looking like the day with the highest potential severe weather ceiling, and potentially the highest risk so far this severe season. With the approach of a more vigorous shortwave trough, additional moisture return is expected into the area ahead of a farther west oriented dryline. Surface cyclogenesis is still being depicted among various models near the KS/CO border vicinity. If timed right, the shortwave trough, with the sharpening dryline, could lead to intense thunderstorms. CAMs still carry various scenarios to the convective evolution with the 00z HRRR being the most bullish, indicating long track, intense supercells across the forecast area. Some guidance struggle to develop storms at all. Nevertheless, environment ahead of the dryline would be favorable for an all hazards situation, including very large hail, damaging winds, and even strong tornadoes. Update to the SPCs Day 2 Convective Outlook has pulled the Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) back farther east, mainly out of the CWA, indicating a higher concentration of severe storms farther east. That very well may be the case, but Sunday still bears watching for a significant severe risk farther west across the forecast area.

After the system departs, much nicer weather is expected into early next week. As the forecast has now, high temperatures will be in the upper 60s into the 70s both Monday and Tuesday afternoon. Low look to dip into the 30s Monday night into Tuesday morning, with freezing temperatures possible. So that will be something to monitor in the coming days as well.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 540 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

A couple of storm systems will move through the central plains this weekend. For today expect MVFR to IFR flight category for all terminals through 18Z with drizzle possible. Ceilings should increase and VFR flight category will return between 17-19Z. Isolated to scattered storms will develop around DDC, HYS, and GCK between 17-01Z and PROB30s are included during this time. After 06Z cloud ceilings will fall again to MVFR to IFR flight category through 12Z with drizzle possible.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.