textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Early morning convection and fog this morning

- Low storm chances this afternoon

- Hotter temperatures return into this weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1248 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Elevated convection is ongoing across western Kansas early this morning. This activity is expected to track southeastward across the area, bringing primarily a heavy rain risk. However, MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg per mesoanalysis suggests storms could yield a few instances of small hail and gusty winds. The overall hail threat is being kept at bay due to moisure-laden nature of the vertical profile with PWATs around the 90th percentile per 00z DDC skew-T. Areas to the north of the convection, mainly along Route 96 northward along the I-70 corridor, are expected to see fog develop this morning as well. Visibilities are expected to drop as low as 1-3 miles. However, the REFS ensemble does suggest probabilities less than a half-mile in the 40-60% range, so the signal for denser fog is evident, but ultimately held off on any dense fog headlines after collaboration with neighboring offices. Trends will be monitored throughout the morning for the need for headlines.

Another small chance of storms is evident across south-central Kansas this evening and overnight. Coverage of any storms is expected to be limited, with POPs largely 25% or less this evening and into Friday morning. Any severe weather risk is expected to be limited given loosely organized convection. However, a stronger storm, especially in the evening, could produce stronger winds and perhaps some hail.

Temperatures are expected to again increase beginning today and into this weekend across the forecast area. Temperatures return to the 90s this afternoon. With dew points in the low 70s across south-central Kansas, heat indices could get in the 100-104 range, just below heat advisory criteria. However, increasing temperatures back around 100-105 and and elevated dew points along the KS/OK border could yield heat indices to at least reach heat advisory criteria for Barber County Friday and beyond. However, any headlines will occur in later forecast updates and will likely be a day by day decision.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 559 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Thunderstorms were ongoing in vicinity of GCK and DDC terminals early this morning to start this TAF period. The storms will move out of the area by mid-morning, but low stratus clouds with ceilings in the LIFR flight category will slowly lift through IFR and eventually MVFR before scattering out/dissipating in the 16-18Z time frame. Light winds are forecast today as the frontal zone remains across southwest Kansas. Another round of thunderstorms will likely develop later tonight much like this morning's activity.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ030-031- 043>046.