textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild temperatures to start the weekend

- Cooler air returns on Sunday and potential rain/wintry mix for Sunday night

- Long term models trending towards a rain and thunderstorm event for the middle of next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1233 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

18z synopsis shows northwest flow in the 500-700 mb levels due to a ridge over the western CONUS and a trough in the east. There is a passing shortwave in the Texas and Oklahoma panhandle and this has led to a 1013 mb low in eastern New Mexico and a narrow pressure gradient leading to stronger winds from Dodge City to Hugoton.

The next 24-36 hours should remain fairly quiet weather wise for western Kansas as we stay in a northwest flow regime aloft and west to southwest winds in the boundary layer. Saturday should be another unseasonably warm day for the end of February and likely capping off one of the warmest Februaries on record. An exiting shortwave will create a surface low in northeast Kansas during the day on Saturday and lead to more northwest winds at the surface. The modest cold air advection from the northerly winds should be overcome by plenty of sunshine and highs will reach into the mid to upper 70s.

The weather pattern will change on Sunday with a large trough across the Great Lakes and a shortwave in the central plains ushering in a stronger cold front Sunday morning. With increasing clouds and easterly winds this should keep temperatures from rising too much through the day as highs will be in the 40s and 50s to start March. By mid to late afternoon a developing shortwave will exit from Colorado and move through southwest Kansas. With modest moisture to start most of the event should start dry until the wave gets east of highway 283. With a bit more moisture in central Kansas we should see some isolated to widely scattered showers develop in the late afternoon and early evening however POPs are still at 10-20% indicating the confidence in rain is still low. NBM probabilities of a few hundredths of rain are still 10-20% along and east of highway 283. As the wave moves eastward into central Kansas we should see some intensification and more widespread rain mainly in central and eastern Kansas. A reinforcing shot of cold air on the backside of the wave Sunday night could lead to a brief wintry mix mainly from Hays to Pratt early Monday morning however accumulations should be light at this point as NBM probabilities of a dusting of snow are still below 10% at HYS.

Long term ensembles show a trend towards a wetter pattern in the middle of next week. ENS and GEFS upper air patterns have a large low in the Pacific reaching the west coast towards Monday afternoon. The low transitions into a more open wave in the Rockies. By Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday the wave reaches the central plains. Surface winds are trending easterly and with upslope winds bringing in more gulf moisture we should see this wave have a better setup for a rain event. Early indications of QPF from the NBM show a 35-50% chance of at least 0.25 inch of rain in 24 hours across much of southwest Kansas and mean QPF from the ENS and GEFS is . outputting around 0.25 inch. CSU machine learning outlook for Wednesday even shows a small probability of thunderstorms containing severe weather which will be monitored as we get closer to the event.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 526 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Winds will remain light until around 15z and then pick up to 10-20 kts as a cold front passes through western Kansas. VFR flight category for all terminals.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.