textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures continue into Monday

- Record high potential on Wednesday with 100 degree highs expected

- Spotty rain and storm chances with lower probability of severe weather at this point

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

18z synopsis shows a large longwave trough across much of the northern plains leading to northwest flow aloft through the central plains. At the surface an area of high pressure is building across the front range of the Rockies which is allowing strong cold air advection for this time of year across much of western Kansas.

Tonight and into Monday morning with continued northwest flow aloft short term models have two upper level shortwaves coming out of eastern Colorado. The one for late tonight has an area of rain developing along the front range and moving into southeast Colorado around sunset. The models are hinting at this line losing upper level lift by the time it gets to Kansas so most of the rain should subside by the state line. A second wave from northeast Colorado will move into northwest and north central Kansas Monday morning. THis upper level lift could lead to some isolated rain showers along the I-70 corridor between sunrise and noon however with low confidence in any one location receiving rain I kept POPs at around 10-20%.

Monday should be slightly warmer with the return of southerly flow near the surface and 850 mb temperatures reaching to around 18 (C). Highs should make it into the 80s. Late Monday afternoon into the evening another 500-700 mb shortwave is expected to move from northeast Colorado to central Kansas. CAMs and other short term models think that this lift along with higher amounts of lower level moisture will lead to pockets of showers and thunderstorms for mainly areas along and west of highway 283 during the evening and overnight hours on Monday.

Wednesday as a strong ridge builds in the western CONUS we should see a pocket of hot air aided by southwest winds that will move into southwest Kansas during the day. Forecast 850 mb temperatures will rise to around 29-32 (C) and with an approaching cold front Wednesday afternoon to aid compressional heating...we should see highs reach into the 100s with NBM probabilities of 100 degree weather in the 70-80% range for all of southwest Kansas. Forecast highs of 103 in Dodge and Garden City will make a run at the record high of 104 and a forecast high of 106 in Medicine Lodge will make a run at the record high of 107. The air should be drier across southwest Kansas so heat index values will be less than the temperature with the exception of Barber county which is forecast to be in heat advisory criteria. The heat event should be short lived as cooler air returns on Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 503 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Winds will begin light and variable before strengthening out of the south around 10 KTs for the later half of the period. Some cloud cover is forecast, especially during the middle of the TAF period, but flight conditions are not expected to be altered. Convection is forecast to be limited to beyond the TAF period.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.