textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers today with the brunt of the severe storms east and southeast of the FA

- High fire danger in the west Thursday

- Cooler Friday and mild over the weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

An upper level shortwave trof will move across the state today. This will lead to some scattered shower activity across southwest Kansas today. Rainfall amounts, however, will be on the light side with any particular location only seeing a tenth or two inches. Looks like the warm sector will be mainly east of the FA with the higher dewpoints. The CAMs now agree that the brunt of the severe storms will be east and southeast of the FA. Some storm activity could clip the three eastern counties, however, there is clearly a trend to the east. To the west, any scattered shower activity is obviously not expected to be severe. Highs today will be mainly in the 60s, although low 70s are likely along the Oklahoma border. For tonight, lows will range from the 40s north to the 50s south.

Dry air advection is expected across the far southwest zones Thursday. This in combination with warm temperatures, low afternoon relative humidity, and breezy winds will lead to another day of high fire danger across the far west. A fire weather watch remains in effect Thursday.

The warm sector will likely remain east of the area Friday. Any thunderstorm activity may clip the far eastern counties, but as with Wednesday, it looks like the brunt of the storm activity will remain east and southeast of the FA. Some of this activity could end up severe, but would not be surprised if storms do form in the far east, they will quickly exit the FA and much of the storm reports will remain in ICT and OUN forecast areas.

The weekend is looking to be mild and mainly dry. High pressure is expected to prevail across the region both days. The net result is a dry forecast. Highs should be in the 60s Saturday and the 70s Sunday. A freeze is likely in the mornings. Looking at the next business week, it appears we will be under split flow aloft. The net result is a dry forecast and mild temperatures.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 517 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through mid/late afternoon. Low level stratus currently developing across north central Kansas is expected to spread slowly southwest into central Kansas later this afternoon/early evening, resulting in potential MVFR cigs in vicinity of KHYS generally after 20-22Z. Additionally, a few showers may develop across portions of southwest Kansas later today ahead of an approaching storm system, potentially affecting all TAF sites briefly. Light northeasterly winds through mid/late morning are forecast to turn southeasterly 10 to 20kt this afternoon as a broad surface high edges east through the Great Lakes. Winds are then expected to turn more south-southwesterly around 15 to 25kt after 00Z as a developing surface low in eastern Colorado lifts northeast into northwest Kansas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

There are no fire weather concerns for Wednesday. Afternoon relative humidity will only bottom out in the 30 to 60 percent range today. Attention then turns to Thursday. Have collaborated with GLD and AMA to keep the fire weather watch as a watch on this shift. The net result is warm temperatures, breezy winds, and low afternoon relative humidity will set the stage for high fire danger Thursday. A fire weather watch remains in effect for 6 counties in the west.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.