textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures are expected throughout the next 7 days with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s

- Thursday will approach Heat Advisory criteria in the far eastern zones

- Friday and Saturday have a 20-40% chance for storms in far western Kansas

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1106 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

The synoptic pattern continues to be headlined by a large upper- level high over the southeastern CONUS. A very deep low pressure system has developed off the coast of the far Pacific Northwest. Only very light showers formed this afternoon before quickly dissipating despite the surface-level weak low pressure system continuing to reside in far western Kansas.

Thursday has continued to look like a repeat of Wednesday. In addition to the very hot highs near 100 degrees (and even up to 105 degrees), the precipitation potential also is reminiscent. With storms not panning out Wednesday, CAMs are showing little to no signal for Thursday. Again like Wednesday, some weak pop-up showers are possible in far west Kansas but these chances remain <10%. Apparent temperatures for Thursday are right around the criteria for a Heat Advisory in the far eastern counties, but with it being marginal the headline decision will be punted to the morning forecast cycle.

Friday and Saturday will continue to be very hot days with highs up to and exceeding the triple digit barrier. Friday will similarly approach criteria, but is currently forecast to remain just shy of the 105 apparent temperature mark. CAMs for both days show chances for storms in far western Kansas on both late afternoons. Ensembles place these chances at around 30-40%, but the isolated nature of the storms may make the tangible chances feel lower. Laughably low shear is forecast to keep storms from intensifying on Friday. Saturday's convection is forecast to remain sub-severe, but with more shear and CAPE (30 KTs and 1200 J/kg from NAMNST forecast soundings), a very marginal severe storm can not be ruled out. The more likely outcome is winds up to 50 mph and penny sized hail.

After Saturday, temperatures are forecast to cool a couple degrees. It will still be hot and the difference will be hard to notice but nonetheless it will be cooler. By midweek on Wednesday, highs may only reach up to the mid-90s. On Wednesday this continues to bring the best chance for widespread precipitation. While chances are only at around 20-30% via ensembles, it is the only notable chances for the eastern half of the CWA to see precipitation in the forecast period. With so much temporal uncertainty, more time will be needed to give better details and a more accurate forecast.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 430 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF cycle, with limited mid/high clouds. VFR is expected through the period. Winds will maintain a southerly component, with gusts of 24-28 kts after 15z Thu. Strongest winds Thursday are expected at HYS. Winds will diminish and back more SEly toward sunset.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.