textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Record hot temperatures once again likely with highs mid to upper 90s from Liberal to Meade to Ashland in particular.

- Red Flag Warning in effect this afternoon and evening for widespread very low RH 8 to 13% and southwest/west wind gusts 25+ mph.

- Strong cold front Tuesday with north-northeast winds 25 to 35 mph, gusting 45 mph.

- Increasing precipitation chances late Wednesday and Wednesday Night as a fast-moving, but intense storm system moves across Kansas. There is an attendant severe weather risk, but degree of severe weather risk and locations are still quite uncertain at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1258 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Another hot day is forecast Monday ahead of the next cold front. Southwesterly winds will develop after sunrise, and the deeply mixed low level thermal plume will expand east-northeastward across all of southwest Kansas. This hot/dry air mass will converge on very warm/moist air mass creating a dryline later on in the afternoon. Right along and just west of the dryline, particularly Highway 283 corridor, temperatures will soar well into the lower-mid 90s. Hottest temperatures, again, will likely be across Seward through Clark County where a few 97 or 98F highs can be expected near the Oklahoma line.

The synoptic setting will become increasingly unsettled across the central CONUS midweek. The first cold frontal passage Tuesday will be tied to a quick-moving northern stream system along the Canada line, so Tuesday temperatures will be noticeably cooler behind the front along with strong north-northeast winds 25 to 35 mph at times. We bumped up the wind speeds closer to 75th percentile NBM given the strong MSLP rises during the day. The cold front will gradually slow down and eventually stall out Tuesday Night as a new surface low develops along the front across the Texas Panhandle in advance of a strong southern stream Pacific jet streak.

The frontal zone Tuesday Night will be the focus for thunderstorms across mainly western/northern Oklahoma, but we will have to watch the Red Hills region later in the night for post-frontal elevated strong to perhaps severe convection. As the Pacific storm system draws closer to western Kansas on Wednesday, an even deeper surface low will redevelop along the frontal zone across southeastern Colorado into the northern TX/OK Panhandles or far southwest Kansas. This will be the main surface low which will track east somewhere near the Kansas-Oklahoma line. Just east of this deep surface low Wednesday afternoon/evening, fairly rich low level moisture will pull back to the northwest, but there is critical timing and magnitude of moisture advection specifically into our southwest Kansas region. If 60F+ dewpoints can pull back toward Highway 283 corridor by early evening before the low moves out, then we will certainly need to watch for vigorous surface-based convection with the potential for all severe weather risks in play. A faster ejecting shortwave trough would keep this surface-based threat just to the east of the DDC CWA. Once the system moves out late Wednesday Night into early Thursday morning, a mid level deformation axis is likely to mature, but move fairly quickly, hence fairly high POPs confined to the Wednesday Night period in particular (especially up along the I-70 corridor at 70+ POPs). Despite fairly high POPs, we are not looking at a substantial precipitation event given the low amplitude and fast-moving nature of the upper level disturbance responsible for the precipitation event. NBM 50th percentile 24-hr QPF amounts range from around a tenth of an inch Scott City-Dodge City-Coldwater to around one-quarter inch along the I-70 corridor.

Another even stronger storm will move out across the Great Plains Friday, but this storm will move across much farther north into the Dakotas, and the first earlier week storm will have pushed low level moisture too far away from western Kansas. Thus, much of the convective precipitation with the Friday system will be confined to central and eastern Kansas into Oklahoma. After the 1-2 punch of storms this week, the pattern will quiet down again over the weekend into early next week with temperatures more like early April instead of late June or July.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 539 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through late evening. Light southerly winds through mid/late morning are expected to turn more southwesterly while increasing 10 to 20kt with gusts up to 25kt generally after 16 to 18Z as surface low pressure in southeast Colorado pushes east-northeast into western Kansas. Winds will subside this evening with loss of daytime heating.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1258 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

The Fire Weather Watch will be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning as critical fire weather conditions will likely develop to the south of a weak surface low track. West to southwest winds will likely gust 25 to 30 mph at times, especially along and south of Highway 50. Farther north closer to the surface low track, winds will likely be much weaker, thus critical conditions are not expected so we will keep the Red Flag Warning generally south of a Syracuse to Garden City to Ness City to La Crosse line. Behind the dryline this afternoon, widespread relative humidity of 8 to 13% is likely as temperatures warm well into the 90s.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ045-046-061>065-074>080- 084>089.