textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Heavy rains are forecast for today, tapering off from south to north during the day; and a flood watch remains in effect.

- After the steady rain ends, a few small tornadoes are possible between 1 pm and 8 pm.

- Another round of rain is expected Thursday.

- The coolest temperatures of the season are forecast for Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1248 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

The previous forecast of heavy rain is still on track; and some locations have already received 1 to 2". The remnants of Hurricane Polo will pass from south to north today, with the steady rains ending during mid morning (Liberal), midday (Dodge City) and late afternoon (Hays). Given the extremely anomalous precipitable water values for this time of year, along with the remnants of Hurricane Polo and upper level trough, excessive rains are likely. Thus, a the flood watch remains in effect through Thursday. Given the heavy rains in Pawnee County Tuesday, this county was added to the watch.

As drier air arrives at mid levels in the wake of the heavy rain, at least some insolation will allow for destabilization as temperatures warm from the upper 60s at sunrise into the mid 70s. Surface based t-storm development should happen provided that this modest warming does occur. Given the tropical-like low level airmass and lack of a mid level capping inversion, it won't take much heating for storm initiation. Expect initial storms to the south and west of Dodge City by mid day, with the storm chances shifting to the north and east during the afternoon and evening. Given the expected low cloud bases, with temperatures in the 70s and dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70, along with a veering wind profile and adequate low level SRH, a few small tornadoes are likely. Backed winds to the northeast of the surface low pressure could enhance low level SRH. Although violent tornadoes are not expected in this pattern; even a small tornado from a miniature, low-topped supercell can do significant damage, albeit in a very narrow swath.

Even after the heavier rain is over, the upper level low will move very slowly so that additional light to moderate rain is forecast for Thursday. Rain totals through Thursday could reach 3 to 4" or even locally higher, especially for locations that received heavy rains Tuesday. 75-90th percentiles of the various ensembles support these localized, higher-end amounts.

Surface high pressure will move southward out of Canada into the plains by Friday. With light winds and clear skies Friday night, temperatures will fall into the 40s, with some readings near 40 in west central Kansas. Of course, these readings are not that unusual for this time of year.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 506 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Widespread rainfall will lift north and taper off later this morning as an upper level trough crosses southwest Kansas. This will bring a brief break in the steadier and heavier rainfall before the next round of storms develop/move into southwest Kansas after 18z today. Locally heavy rainfall will reduce visibilities into the MVFR category but visibilities are expected to improve into the VFR category as the rain ends. Ceilings this morning will generally range from 1000 to 2500ft AGL with brief period of 500ft ceilings possible between 12z and 15z. As the upper level trough passes the ceilings will also improve during the afternoon. The exception will be Hays where IFR/MVFR ceilings are expected through tonight. Elsewhere VFR conditions will give way to IFR ceilings before 06z Wednesday as low level moisture improves and rain chances increase.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Thursday evening for KSZ030-031-043>046- 061>065-074>078-084>087.