textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably hot afternoons will continue Sunday through Tuesday, with near record highs expected.

- A weak cold front will offer minor cooling, and improved chances for showers and thunderstorms around midweek.

- A stronger cold front is expected to finally provide more significant heat relief next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

The synoptic pattern aloft continues to be dominated by a very large high pressure complex over the southern CONUS and residing overhead of the forecast area. The only other aspect of the patttern currently is a very strong low pressure system that continues to deepen over the Pacific Northwest. Today's convection greatly over preformed and has dropped temperatures down into the 70/80s. Some weak convection continues in very far SW Kansas, but CAMs have these storms slowly dying off. Additionally, some CAM's have scattered overnight convection across the CWA that will all remain sub-severe. The best chances appear to be up near Hays in the northern counties at around 8 AM to noon.

A heat advisory remains in effect east of US 283 until Sunday at 8 PM. Highs Sunday are forecast in the mid-to-upper 90s and even exceeding triple digits in the far southeastern portion of the CWA. Other than the heat that continues to blanket the area, the forecast focus is on more storm chances in the evening. CAMs have weak storms developing in eastern Colorado around 7 PM and moving into Kansas. Progged CAPE and shear are very minimal and storms are expected to remain well below severe thresholds if the storms even materialize.

Monday and Tuesday are forecast to continue the heat with highs in the upper 90s. The next best chance for precipitation comes Tuesday night with 30-40% storm chances via ensembles in the northwestern counties. Although it is still early, it is expected that these storms continue to be sub-severe with strong winds up to 50 mph being possible. Wednesday, ensembles have another wave of precipitation, this time more widespread. More time will be needed before making declarative statements on the convection. The rest of the forecast period will remain hot, with sunday even cooling down enough for highs be around 90 degrees. This would easily be the coolest day of the forecast period. Through this stretch, modest relative humidity minimums remain above 25% quelling most of the fire weather risk. This is forecast to accompany a continuing south wind at 10-15 mph.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 417 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Good flying weather will continue through this TAF period, with VFR persisting, variable amounts of mid/high clouds, and light winds. Radar imagery at 0915z Sun depicted scattered showers near HYS, GCK and LBL, but remaining activity is expected to dissipate over the next few hours through sunrise. No thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon/evening, and the upcoming set of TAFs will be dry.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ031-046-065- 066-079>081-089-090.