textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong south winds Thursday afternoon gusting to near 45 mph.

- Critical wildfire danger west of the dryline near the Colorado border Thursday afternoon.

- Limited thunderstorm coverage favoring the southeast counties Thursday night.

- A strong cold front is scheduled to arrive Friday afternoon with strong north winds. Limited severe potential ahead of this cold front across eastern zones Friday afternoon.

- Much cooler Saturday, with a rapid warming trend Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1130 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Strong moisture advection was in progress late Thursday morning, with stratus streaming north, and dewpoints steadily climbing through the 40s. Dewpoints will continue to climb into the 50s through this afternoon and evening, as the dryline, as expected, remains nearly stationary near the KS/CO border. Satellite imagery indicates scattered breaks in the stratus, with a clear sky over the dryline as of late this morning. This will allow instability to increase with time, with 12z NAM forecasting most-unstable/elevated CAPE climbing to near 2000 J/kg this evening, surface based CAPE near 1000 J/kg, and surface dewpoints well into the 50s. As such, will need to monitor for convective initiation, but triggers are lacking, with surface convergence and forcing for ascent very limited. Pops are not mentioned in most zones this afternoon through tonight (pops < 15%), with most locations dry. The most likely outcome is for convective initiation to occur around 5 pm over the eastern or southeast Panhandle, with subsequent movement into western Oklahoma tonight. CAM consensus including 12z ARW/HRRR keep the vast majority of this activity southeast of even our most southeast zones. With some guidance such as 12z NAM still clipping our southeast zones, kept some reduced pops in the southeast zones tonight. Coverage and intensity of any thunderstorms in SW KS will be reduced from prior expectations from previous forecasts.

Unseasonably mild tonight with a low level jet keeping the boundary layer mixed with elevated/strong south winds. Many locations will remain above 50 degrees through sunrise, over 20 degrees above normal for early March. Dryline will remain backed up well into Colorado through sunrise.

Strong closed midlevel cyclone near the Four Corners 6 am Friday will bifurcate into two shortwaves Friday, one retrograding southwest into a closed cuttoff over the SW US, the other ejecting through the central plains through Friday evening. Expectation is for the associated surface cyclone to be over SW KS Friday morning, with areas of fog/stratus one more time ahead of the dryline. Have noticed some guidance such as 12z NAM have slowed down the synoptic progression eastward some on Friday, with the expected strong cold front arriving from Garden City to Hays around 3 pm, and the dryline only mixing to the eastern zones at peak heating. This westward correction in numerical weather prediction is seen often as storm systems enter the plains. Regardless, models including several CAMs are very resistant to developing convection along the dryline/cold front/triple point intersection in the eastern zones Friday afternoon, presumably due to lingering capping. Still, with dewpoints in the lower 60s and sufficent CAPE/shear to support severe convection, will need to monitor areas east of Dodge City carefully for thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Any convection that develops will be quickly undercut by the surging strong cold front, which should easily clear the southeast zones by 6 pm Friday. Behind the dryline Friday, increased SW winds to the 90%ile of the NBM, and kept temperatures near the warmest guidance with strong downslope compression. Wildfire danger will increase across southwest zones Friday afternoon.

Strong north to northwest winds Friday night will diminish rapidly Saturday, as surface high pressure builds south into SW KS. Temperatures return to March reality Saturday, with lows in the 20s and 30s, and afternoon highs reduced to the 50s. All models maintain continuity from previous runs, showing dry weather and a rapid warming trend Sunday and Monday. NBM continues to forecast near record temperatures in the lower 80s Monday. NBM shows chances for showers and thunderstorms increasing Tuesday, as the SW US cutoff low ejects, and a cold front approaches from the north.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1000 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Surface observations and satellite imagery depicted widespread IFR/LIFR stratus across SW KS at 16z Thu. Surface visibility is improving as fog dissipates. Consensus of short term models suggests stratus will hold at DDC/HYS through the majority of this TAF period, and this trend was maintained in the 18z TAFs. Clearing is much more probable at GCK/LBL. Strong south winds at all airports through 00z Fri, gusting 30-35 kts. South winds will remain elevated and gusty overnight, in response to a low level jet and strong mixing. Included low level wind shear in the DDC/HYS TAFs after 03-06z Fri. VFR is forecast to return to all airports daylight Friday, from west to east, behind the eastward mixing dryline. Expect strong SW winds behind the dryline by 18z Fri, gusting 30-35 kts. A strong cold front is expected to bring a sharp north wind shift to the airports just after this TAF period, around 21z Fri.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

South to southwest winds will continue to increase across Hamilton, Stanton, and Morton counties Thursday afternoon, with gusts to near 45 mph. Relative humidity west of the dryline will be reduced to near 10%, where wildfire red flag criteria is expected. Red flag conditions are most likely immediately adjacent to the Colorado border for a few hours this afternoon, before the dryline retreats westward this evening.

Friday, the dryline will mix eastward into central Kansas. Strong southwest to west winds are expected across Morton, Stevens and Seward counties, gusting again to near 45 mph. Minimum relative humidity will be near 15%. As such, another red flag warning was issued for these zones Friday afternoon.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ this evening for KSZ061-074-084. Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM CST Friday for KSZ084>086.