textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and mainly dry weather is expected through Monday.

- There are small chances for t-storms each evening through Monday, but mainly across central Kansas. Some of these storms could be severe.

- A cold front will pass across southwest Kansas Monday night and high winds of 50+ mph may accompany the front for a few hours.

- Cooler weather is predicted by Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1214 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

A thermal low pressure area will shift a little south today into the panhandles, with light east to northeast winds over southwest Kansas. Temperatures will be only slightly cooler and the air a little more moist (but still relatively dry). Any thunderstorm activity will likely stay to the south and west of Kansas. However, there is a small chance that the storms over the southern high plains will venture into southwest Kansas during the evening. If this occurs, isolated wind gusts to 50-60 mph would be a possibility. .

On Saturday the surface low pressure is expected to shift into western Kansas, with south winds returning to the southern high plains and continued high temperatures. In the absence of any strong synoptic lift, thunderstorm chances are very small and confined to central and northern Kansas along the I-70 corridor later in the evening. Damaging winds and hail are the main concerns. An upper level trough will begin to amplify over the western United States.

By Sunday the upper level trough will amplify further, with broad southwest flow across the central plains. Surface low pressure will still be over western Kansas, with a frontal boundary extending northeastward. A dryline is expected to intersect the front near or east of Dodge City. Given the weak synoptic forcing, any t-storms should be isolated along the dry line and front from Hays to Dodge City to Ashland and points east, with best chances around Larned and Stafford. Any storms that manage to develop could become severe.

The upper level trough will approach southwest Kansas Monday morning; but with the lack of daytime heating, a mid level capping inversion is expected to inhibit storm formation. Later in the afternoon t-storms will form, but not until dry air sweeps across western Kansas. Thus, any severe storms will likely be confined to central and eastern Kansas. However, the dry line may retreat westward during the evening as the cold front approaches, resulting in a line of storms across central Kansas. It is unclear how far west these storms will develop, but locations such as Hays, Larned, Stafford and Pratt have the highest chances (20-30% at any given location). Locations from Dodge City west will likely stay dry and windy, with fire weather a concern. Temperatures in the dry air could reach 100 in places like Dodge City and Ashland. High winds are expected Monday evening and night in the wake of the front, with 50-55 mph northerly gusts.

In summarize precipitation wise, the various ensemble systems and grand ensemble indicate near 0% chances of .1" or greater of rain through Monday across far southwest Kansas, and only 10-30% chances for central Kansas (including Hays and Pratt). And any rain in central Kansas would not be a general rain, but rather strong to severe storms with spotty rain and hail amounts.

Cooler air is predicted in the wake of the cold front on Tuesday, with highs in the lower to mid 70s. There is a large amount of uncertainty after Monday as some ensemble clusters develop another upper level trough over the western United States with moist upslope flow, while others show zonal flow developing with rain chances remaining very low.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 637 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

A surface low centered between LBL and DDC at the onset of this TAF period will move very little through the day today, and this will result in light winds much of the day, especially at LBL and DDC. Showers and thunderstorms will likely develop across the northern Panhandles late this afternoon, moving/expanding northeast through the evening. The northern periphery of these storms will likely be close enough to LBL to warrant inclusion of a PROB30 group for thunderstorms for about a four hour period early-mid evening.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.