textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the western majority of the CWA from noon until 9 pm CDT with extreme fire weather conditions.

- Faster moving cold front that previously forecast Friday will reduce areal extent of Critical Fire Weather conditions, as well as reducing or perhaps even eliminating severe weather risk across our 27-county NWS Dodge City area entirely.

- Sub-freezing temperatures expected Saturday morning and potentially Sunday morning as cold air mass drives south behind significant spring storm system.

- Continued serious fire weather risk into next week with very dry conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1246 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

The upper-level low has reached Iowa with a long line of storms ongoing through much of the central CONUS. Another deep low has already developed off the Pacific Northwest as expected. Tuesday will bring much of the area east of the CWA a reprieve before more storms Friday. Outside of Friday's storm chances, fire weather conditions and a weekend overnight freeze headline the forecast.

Thursday hosts a warmer forecast than Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Nearly the entire CWA is forecast to see relative humidity minimums below 15%, and as low as 6% in far SW Kansas. Much of the winds will fall short of criteria, but despite falling short by a mph or two, significant fire weather risk is present. SW winds are forecast to be 15-25 mph with gusts up to 30; the strongest winds in far SW Kansas. Due to the serious conditions, a Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for all counties except Barber, Stafford, and Pratt. Great caution is advised with the conditions, particularly with ignition sources.

Into Friday, the system currently deepening over the Pacific Northwest is progged by ensembles to move into the area and bring storm development. Upper-level dynamics, ample shear, conducive lapse rates and CAPE, and a strong forcing with the cold front associated with the system is continuing to look like a very favorable environment for strong severe weather. With that in mind, and as the previous forecast caught onto, will be nearly entirely east of the CWA. The cold front positioning continues to appear to arrive earlier in the latest model runs and sweep through the area early in the day. The current expectation is that it sweeps east of the Hays-Dodge City line by noon. With the atmosphere not having time to be primed before the early afternoon at least, most of the CWA is devoid of storm potential. CAMs have general agreement with initiation around 2 PM where the front is so far east that only the Barber county area remains east of the front. Even in the scenario where the front is slower and initiation is sooner, the storms will likely not reach maturity before leaving the CWA.

Friday continues the long streak of notable fire weather conditions. Areas near the KS/OK border west of Highway 283 with relative humidity minimums around 10-15% and winds of 20-30 mph and gusts up to 40 mph. With the previously mentioned cold front and continued CAA, lows Saturday morning will be cold with a Freeze Watch out for the northwest half of the CWA with lows as cold as 27 degrees. Highs Saturday will fight the cold starting point and are forecast to reach the 60s. Even with the lowered temperatures, the cool dry air will still push widespread relative humidities from 8-15%. Winds are only forecast to be 10-15 mph so a fire headline is not expected, but with the prolonged dry conditions precautions are still advised. Lows Sunday morning, will be borderline with lows down to 29 degrees.

Sunday highs will lead into next week with upper 70s and 80s. Through Thursday, the western half of the CWA will see relative humidities below or near 15%. Winds will flirt with the criteria and the coming days will provide more clarity on if headlines will be needed. Regardless of if there is one, precautions are strongly advised over this stretch of continued very dry weather.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1100 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

VFR is expected through TAF pd. LLWS via a 50 kt LLJ will be possible through the overnight hours for KGCK/KHYS. Otherwise, S to SW 5-15 kt winds will continue today and tonight. A fropa is expected in the 13-16Z time frame. Winds will eventually become NW to N and will be gusty in the post-frontal regime.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the western majority of the CWA from noon until 9 pm CDT with extreme fire weather conditions for all counties except Stafford, Pratt, and Barber counties. Especially far SW Kansas could see potentially dangerous conditions. Friday's fire weather risk will be contained to far SW Kansas near the KS/OK border due to added moisture to much of the area, especially towards central KS. Saturday and Sunday will be extremely dry CWA wide. Future forecasts will determine if the winds will meet criteria for a fire weather headline with better potentially being place on Sunday via ensembles.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>087.