textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant day today with highs in the 70s

- Strong storms possible Saturday evening for the eastern half of the CWA with the best chance fore marginal severe weather in the eastern counties

- Hot and dry next week with triple digit highs possible on Thursday for portions of SW Kansas

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1105 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

The synoptic pattern aloft is fairly unnoteworthy aside from a low- pressure tough situated over Mexico. Primarily zonal flow is present over the CWA and will contribute to tranquil and warm weather after the departed wave from earlier this week. Today's highs are forecast in the 70s, with ensembles having a 30-50% chance for areas along the KS/OK border to see highs reach 80. Other than a hiccup on Sunday, a quite warm stretch is coming this week.

On Saturday highs are forecast in the mid-to-upper 80s for nearly the whole of southwest Kansas. The most pressing concern of Saturday, and the whole forecast, is the storm potential. Ensembles have a weak mid-level shortwave trough moving across the Great Plains on the back half of the days. Nearly every CAM has some sort of convection as a result of the feature, but much disagreement is still present. The median solution follows somewhere between the 12Z HRRR and NAMNST of initiation occurring along a axis from Liberal to Hays at around 6 pm. Some CAMs have the initiation later/farther east confining precipitation into the 6 eastern zones. Some other oddball solutions include the RRFS that only has convection across the northern zones. Perhaps the greatest culprit for all this disagree comes with the details of the moisture both in amounts and placement. NAM forecast soundings continue to have an inverted V profile with fairly dry surface dewpoints. Ensembles have the dryline as a sharp gradient on the eastern portion of the OK/TX panhandles and broadening into Kansas. Specifics aside, it appears that surface moisture will be hard to come by in the CWA Saturday. Just enough low/mid level moisture advection and convergence is expected to overcome this limitation and be enough for high-based convection. The best chance for severe potential is in the eastern where more of this moisture resides. With steep lapse rates, severe wind gusts are possible, but hail current is expected to be the more pressing threat albeit still marginal. The current forecast for precipitation is around 15-30% in the central CWA counties and 30- 45% in the far eastern counties.

With north winds behind the weak system and lingering cloud cover Sunday will be cooler and the only day next week forecast with highs below 80 degrees with highs in the lower 70s. Ensembles have subtle upper-level ridging developing on Monday over the Rockies and drifting over the Great Plains into the week providing a long period of dry, headlineless weather. The biggest concern aside from Saturday's severe potential is reoccurring marginal fire weather concerns in far SW Kansas. Morton and surrounding counties have relative humidity minimums and wind gusts nearing criteria nearly every day at Sunday with 15% and 25 mph gusts respectively. Currently it is not expected that both aspects of the criteria are met at the same time for much of the period despite still remaining marginal. The closest day in the forecast cycle appears to be Thursday where again it is very marginal. More will be said on fire weather in the coming forecast cycles if it becomes necessary.

With highs in the 80/90s next week, the hottest day is forecast to be Thursday with ensembles having means will into the 90s. Barber county is expected to see the warmest temperatures this week and Thursday is no exception with ensembles placing around a 30% probability to reach triple digit highs at Medicine Lodge. This would be around 15 degrees warmer than the average for mid-May in southwest Kansas helping to offset the cooler than normal last few weeks the CWA has experienced.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 431 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Northerly winds early this Friday evening will decrease to less than 10 knots by 03Z Saturday and then gradually shift to the south after 06Z Saturday as an area of high pressure at the surface crosses western Kansas. These southerly winds will then increase to around 20 knots between 15Z and 18Z Saturday as an upper level trough approaches from the northwest. In addition to increasing wind speeds during the day, there will also be an increase in mid to high level moisture/clouds (at or above 12,000 ft AGL). After 21Z Saturday...a cold front will begin to cross southwest Kansas which will result in gusty southerly winds shifting to the northwest along with a few isolated high based thunderstorms.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.