textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm temperatures to start the week

- Significant cool down for the mid week

- Increasing chances of rain with accumulations of greater than 0.5 inch possible in parts of southwest Kansas

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Early afternoon synopsis has a dampened ridge over the desert southwest with a large trough through the Great Lakes and eastern CONUS leading to northwest flow in the central plains. A weak shortwave is aiding a 1009 mb surface low in northwest Kansas and is leading to stronger downsloping southwest winds across much of the region.

For tonight the winds are expected to diminish as the weak shortwave and surface low slowly moves eastward into central Kansas. Overnight winds will fall to around 5-10 mph and lows should be in the 40s and 50s.

Monday should be another warmer than normal day. The apex of the ridge should move eastward into Colorado and southwest Kansas leading to the warmest of the air building into the central and southern plains. Sunny skies and boundary layer winds out of the west will also help in the efficient warming in the afternoon as highs should reach into the upper 80s to near 90.

Monday night the polar jet in the northern plains will strengthen and move southward which will push a stout cold front through western Kansas. Latest models have the arrival of the front much earlier with the stronger cold air advection coming in around midnight. With a 700 mb shortwave helping to deepen the surface low in northwest Oklahoma to around 995 mb there should be a good post frontal pressure gradient. Winds will turn to the north to northeast at 15-25 mph with gusts over 30 through much of the day on Tuesday. With strong cold air advection and clouds all day the temperatures on Tuesday could struggle to get into the middle 50s. Rain chances will also increase in our northern zones Monday night through the day on Tuesday as the best lift with the trough will be in these areas.

Tuesday night through Wednesday should bring the best opportunity for rain across western Kansas as the mid point of the 500 mb trough and best 700 mb lift will be entering into western Kansas. Ensemble QPF output is becoming more consistent with at least 0.5 inch or more of rain north and west of a Liberal to Dodge City to Hays line. NBM probabilities of 40-80% of receiving greater than 0.5 inch also reflects the better setup for rain in these areas. Latest model runs with 850 mb temperatures are slightly warmer at around 0-1 (C) Wednesday night so the chance of any snowflakes mixing in southwest Kansas has gone down which is not surprising since May snows are fairly uncommon in this area of the country. Thursday through the weekend we should see the trough exit and with a mild ridge building in the west this should bring the return of milder temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1202 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through late evening. Light and variable winds overnight are expected to turn west-northwesterly 10-20kt generally after 12-14Z as a surface trough axis pushes east through southwest Kansas into south central Kansas.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.