textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- A warming trend will continue, with highs reaching into the 90s by Saturday, along with lighter than average winds.

- Mainly dry weather is forecast for the next week to ten days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Upper level ridging over the western United States will gradually build eastward trough Friday. Low to mid level temperatures are predicted to warm as downslope flow continues. Highs Friday at Dodge City could reach near the record value of 91, but will probably fall just short. By Saturday a shortwave trough over southwestern Canada will skirt across the northern tier of states and push a cold front southward into Kansas by Sunday. Highs Saturday will likely reach into the 90s, with records possible. The record high in Dodge City is 94 degrees and it's possible that this will be tied or broken. However, the frontal timing will not be optimal for reaching record highs as the boundary will be too far north Saturday afternoon for a stronger, pre-frontal downslope surge. The various ensemble means are consistent in showing 850mb temperatures around 26C along the 100th meridian, which would translate to highs in the mid 90s assuming complete daytime mixing, and even warmer if there is a superadiabtic layer near the ground. The lack of rain over the past few weeks will encourage ground heating and steep near-surface lapse rates.

Temperatures Sunday will be tricky as a very warm plume of air is forecast to reside across southwest Kansas in the morning. Readings should start out very warm in the 50s to near 60 at sunrise (exact readings depending on wind speeds and amount of overnight outgoing radiation). The timing of the front will determine how warm it gets. If the frontal passage is faster then all of southwest Kansas would experience highs in the upper 60s to 70s or cooler. However, a slower solution would mean hot readings in places like Medicine Lodge and Pratt. Temperatures near the Oklahoma state line around Medicine Lodge could reach 90 ahead of the front by noon before falling in the afternoon. The remainder of southwest and central Kansas may only reach into the upper 60s and 70s given the strong north winds at 20-30 mph. However, the ensemble mean pressure and thermal fields suggest a faster frontal passage, and if correct could result in temperatures in the 40s by mid morning Sunday, along with 40-45 mph wind gusts. This colder solution would mean highs in the 50s to lower 60s for Sunday, with the wind making it feel rather chilly. The cool-down in the wake of the front will be short-lived as the mid level flow becomes more zonal by Monday and Tuesday. After highs in the 60s Monday, expect warmer weather to return by Tuesday.

The ensemble means indicate only 5 to 10% chances for measurable (.01" or greater)precipitation over the next week and this dry pattern will likely persist for even longer.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

A surface trough over the high plains will move east through the period. This will result in light southwest winds becoming westerly and then northwesterly at 10 kts or less. VFR conditions will persist.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1250 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures in the 70s will return Tuesday, with minimum relative humidity of 15-20%. Winds will be light throughout SW KS, generally less than 20 mph, so no fire weather headlines are planned.

A strong warming trend through Saturday will ensure that minimum relative humidities are at/near red flag criteria. Winds will remain light each of these days, as such no fire weather headlines are planned through the week.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.