textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Low RHs and gusty southerly winds will crease a near critical fire danger this afternoon. A Red Flag warning is in effect to account for this

- A strong cold front will move through the area after midnight shifting winds to the north. Wind gusts above 60 mph are expected tomorrow with some blowing dust

- Wind chills in the 20s are expected through the day tomorrow with wind chills in the single digits tomorrow night

- Above normal temperatures are expected mid to late week with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

An upper level trough will dive down across the Plains through tomorrow and help push a strong surface cold front through the area tonight. Mostly clear skies and wind from the south are expected throughout the remainder of today with high clouds increasing in coverage this evening. RHs will dip into the teens to single digits across our western half of the forecast area this afternoon. This in combination of gusty winds will create a near critical fire danger. A Red Flag warning is in effect to account for this. The cold front is progged to move through the area after midnight with strong gusts behind this front. The strongest winds are expected through tomorrow with some gusts over 60 mph likely. Since we haven't had any significant precipitation lately some blowing dust will also be expected through the day tomorrow. Wind speeds then decrease late afternoon into tomorrow evening and continue to be from the north through tomorrow night. As for temperatures, highs today are expected to reach into the low 80s with upper 70s across central Kansas. Lows tonight will range from the upper 20s across west central Kansas to mid 40s across central Kansas. Highs tomorrow will most likely be felt early in the morning with steady or decreasing temperatures in the afternoon. Expect temperatures in the afternoon to range from the upper 30s across west central Kansas to low 50s across south central Kansas. With the strong winds and cold air advection, expect wind chills in the 20s throughout the day. Lows tomorrow night will dip into the teens with wind chills in the single digits.

The weather pattern throughout the remainder of the forecast will see an upper level ridge above the western United States with an upper level trough over the eastern United States. This places northwest flow above western Kansas suppressing any significant weather from occurring. Winds will shift back to the south Monday and continue through mid week. Long range ensemble models show a weak cold front to move through the area Thursday but no precipitation is expected. As for temperatures, expect another cold day Monday with highs ranging from the low 40s across central Kansas to low 50s across far western Kansas. We then rebound into the 70s Tuesday with 80s mid to late week. A few places across far southwestern Kansas may reach the lower 90s, especially late week. Lows will dip into the 20s Tuesday morning with 40s and 50s for the remainder of the forecast.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1142 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through tomorrow with increasing high level clouds overnight. Winds will start out from a southerly direction with gusts over 20 knots this afternoon. Winds then shift to the north overnight as a cold front moves Thor the area. Wind gusts over 40 knots are expected early morning into tomorrow afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Lower dewpoints will advect in from the west today. This will result in humidity bottoming out in the 10-15% range. The lee trough will continue with breezy southerly winds. The combination of the low relative humidity, warm highs, and breezy winds will result in Red Flag conditions for a portion of southwest Kansas. A Red Flag Warning is in effect.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088. High Wind Warning from 5 AM CDT /4 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Sunday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.