textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Much warmer today with afternoon temperatures reaching into the 50s.

- Light snow is possible Monday morning favoring areas along a Scott City to Dodge City line. Little to no accumulations are expected.

- Dry through at least the end of the work week with near or above normal temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Early morning water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal a largely identical synoptic pattern over the CONUS compared to this time yesterday, with deep longwave troughing atop all areas along and east of the Rockies, and weak ridging over the west coast. At the surface, high pressure over the southern plains is yielding southwesterly winds over southwest KS, which will support gradually increasing temperatures through the remainder of the overnight period. Daytime today, a shortwave impulse is progged to dive southeast from the northern plains into the Midwest, sending another cold front through the central plains during the afternoon. Given downsloping winds through the morning and prefrontal compression, a considerable spike in afternoon temperatures is expected despite the frontal passage, with highs in the 50s.

Sunday night into Monday morning, short range ensembles are still suggesting light, banded snowfall is possible favoring areas along and adjacent to a Garden City-Dodge City line, courtesy of modest frontogenesis primarily within the 850-700-mb layer. Snow accumulations will be minimal at best as NBM probability of snow totals exceeding 1" are around 50% or less for all zones, and any snow bands that do develop will dissipate by the early afternoon. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies will promote below normal temperatures with afternoon highs in the 30s.

Tuesday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles agree the overall synoptic pattern will remain static as the deep longwave trough refuses to budge. Shortwave troughs/vorticity maxima embedded within the larger parent wave will send a couple more dry cold fronts through our area with little fanfare, yielding only a gradual downtrend in afternoon temperatures through Friday. Over the weekend, ensembles are hinting at a more significant arctic air intrusion, but predictability at this range limits forecast confidence.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1115 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Gusty northwest winds at 15 to 20 knots will shift to northeast and then decrease to 10 knots or less between 00z and 04z Monday as a surface cold front crosses southwest Kansas. After 06z Monday VFR ceilings will lower across southwest Kansas with a chance for light snow becoming possible in the Garden City and Dodge City areas towards daybreak. The best chance for a period of steady snow will occur between 12z and 18z Monday at Garden City, Dodge City and Liberal. As the steadier snow develops the ceilings will drop into the 2000 to 3500ft AGL range. Visibilities from the snow may also occasionally fall to less than 4 miles at times at Garden City and Dodge City. Snowfall totals between 12z and 18z Monday are currently expected to range from 0.5 and 1.1 inches. In Liberal the snow totals will be less and range from a dusting to 1/2inch

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.