textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Fire Danger and Record Highs on Thursday

- Higher impact wind event Thursday night through Friday afternoon

- Small thunderstorm chances in south central Kansas Thursday night

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

17Z synopsis shows an unusually strong for this time of year upper level 591 dm high located over the desert southwest with the polar jet extending across the CONUS-Canadian border. At the surface a weak wind shift line is bisecting southwest Kansas with a surface low in southeast Nebraska and northeast New Mexico which is leading to modest wind speeds at 10-20 mph. Temperatures at noon are as warm as 91 at Elkhart with widespread 80 degree temperatures elsewhere.

The unseasonably warm airmass will continue to influence our weather for much of the day on Thursday. Latest short term model updates still have a little uncertainty on the timing of the colder air with the trend being between noon-6pm passage from north to south. Ahead of the front with west to southwest downsloping winds, dry ground, and compressional heating ahead of the front warming the 850 mb temps to 29-30 (C) we could see some of the warmest March temperatures ever for parts of southwest Kansas especially between the highway 50 corridor to the Oklahoma border in the Red Hills. 13Z NBM probabilities of highs reaching to 100 are near 100 percent along the Oklahoma border and 50-80% along the highway 50 corridor giving us high confidence of highs reaching into the upper 90s to lower 100s. With the timing of the front occurring later in the day we should see humidity values drop to 10% in the afternoon with southwest winds 15-25+ mph leading to elevated to near critical fire. Once the front passes during peak heating we should see a dramatic shift and increase in speed out of the northwest which will create a dangerous situation if any fires do occur ahead of the front. The direction of the fire will switch immediately as northwest winds pick up to 25-35 mph and gusts 55+ mph. Modest POP values are also included Thursday evening around Pratt and Medicine Lodge as a 700 mb shortwave will coincide with the front and dew point values in the lower 50s that could lead to some isolated storms in south central Kansas. Any rainfall that does occur will quickly move out of the area by late evening.

The intense winds will continue through the night with good mixing and 850 mb at 40-50 kts. This will keep winds at 25-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph through late Friday morning. Winds should gradually relax through the late afternoon and early evening as a surface high moves in. Temperatures will be dramatically cooler on Friday as we should have a 30-40 degree drop in highs with temperatures in the mid to upper 50s.

Long term ensembles keep us in a mainly zonal regime through the middle of next week which should keep us dry and towards the end of the 7 day stretch a larger longwave trough develops through the western CONUS and will introduce some small chances of storms by the middle of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 504 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Light southeast winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots after midnight as surface pressures fall across eastern Colorado. A 40 to 45 knot low level jet will also develop across southwest Kansas as this surface trough of low pressure deepens overnight. These southerly winds will increase to around 15 knots and veer to the southwest between 12Z and 15Z Thursday as the stronger winds in the 1500-2000 ft AGL level mix down to the surface. After 18Z...a cold front will cross southwest Kansas. As this boundary passes, the westerly winds will shift to the north and increase to 20-25 knots, with gusts in excess of 30 knots possible, mainly in the Hays, Garden City, and Dodge City areas. BUFR soundings indicate VFR conditions over the next 24 hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Fire weather watch in effect for all of southwest Kansas on Thursday. The elevated to near critical fire weather danger will be highlighted with a dramatic change in the direction and speed of the winds during the afternoon with a cold front that will move through southwest Kansas. Ahead of the front west to southwest winds will usher in drier air and drop humidity values to 10-20%. Wind speeds will be 15-25 mph with higher gusts. As the front moves through the winds will sharply change to the northwest at 25-35 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Should any fire occur ahead of the front a frontal passage will shift the direction the fire is moving immediately.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.