textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Next chance of storms over the weekend. Severe likely.

- Then dry until midweek

- Seasonable temperatures all week long

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1111 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

A cold front has all but cleared the far three eastern counties. Morning CAMs are in good agreement that the severe storms will remain well east of the FA. Otherwise, a quiet weather night is expected. Lows will be cooler as a drier air mass prevails across southwest Kansas. Look for upper 30s in the northwest to around 50F across south-central Kansas.

We will be between weather systems Friday. The net result is a dry forecast and pleasant afternoon temperatures. Winds tomorrow will be on the weaker side, so fire danger doesn't look too high. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 70s. Lows heading into Saturday morning will be more mild with upper 40s to lower 50s across the FA.

Attention then turns to Saturday. A large upper level trof will be carving out across the western United States. Moisture advection will occur downstream of this UL feature with dewpoints in the 50s and 60s returning to Kansas in the warm sector. A dryline and frontal boundary is expected to be associated with a sfc low across the state. Significant CAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg is expected to develop by the afternoon. Forecast skew-t/log-p's show a thermo and shear profile that would support supercell development. All hazards would be possible with any supercell storm including giant hail and tornadoes. Right now it is unclear where the boundaries will be as the GEFS is farther east than compared to the ENS. Will have to watch models in the next few days to hone in on placement of CI.

Another cold front will eventually traverse the state by the end of the weekend. This will transport low level moisture south of the FA for the beginning of the work week. The net result is a dry forecast starting next week. The net opportunity of storms is forecast by the ensembles midweek. Will have to watch out for the potential of severe storms again with this second round of storms.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1111 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

VFR expected through TAF pd. Storms should remain well east of the terminals. NW to NE winds 15-20 kt today becoming 5-10 kt tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1111 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Friday afternoon relative humidity will bottom out in the 10 to 20 percent range. Winds, however, are forecast to be on the weaker side. Not planning on any fire headlines for tomorrow due to the marginal wind speeds and gusts.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ061-074>076-084>089.