textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds expected Tuesday.

- Critical fire weather conditions possible Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1203 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

WV imagery indicates an upper level shortwave trough transitioning east through west Texas while ridging aloft is beginning to build in across the Intermountain West. Near the surface, an area of low pressure is moving east through the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma.

Any lingering pockets of light rain across central/south central Kansas will quickly dissipate by early evening as the SREF indicates the aforementioned upper level shortwave trough quickly pushing east into the lower Mississippi River Valley tonight while ridging aloft shifts east through the Four Corners Region into the Central/Southern Rockies. A much drier pattern will take hold into early next week even as upper level ridging begins to break down while moving farther east out into the Central Plains Monday.

The focus shifts to Tuesday as far as impacts go with medium range models pointing to another upper level shortwave lifting east- northeast through the Great Basin into the Central Rockies early in the day. Lee side cyclogenesis is projected across the Northern High Plains, further deepening as the low moves out into the Dakotas, in turn resulting in a tightening pressure gradient across western Kansas with the SREF pointing to H85 winds in excess of 35kt. As peak heating approaches, strong winds can be expected to mix down Tuesday afternoon as indicated by the NBM showing a 60-80% probability of wind gusts exceeding 45 mph across much of southwest Kansas. With downsloping enhancing a much drier air mass spreading into southwest Kansas, there is increasing risk for fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon.

Well above normal temperatures are forecast tonight with prevailing low level stratus remaining locked in across central Kansas and much of southwest Kansas. The HREF paints a 50-60% probability of temperatures dropping below 35F in extreme southwest Kansas where some scattering out is expected to a 50-70% probability of temperatures slipping below 45F in south central Kansas where prevailing cloud cover remains a likely factor. Expect lows generally down into the 30s(F) with the lower 40s(F) in south central Kansas. A warming trend begins Sunday with strengthening lee side troughing bringing about southwesterly downsloping to western Kansas, pushing H85 temperatures up around 7-8C in central Kansas to near 15C near the Colorado line. Look for widespread afternoon highs in the 60s(F) considering the HREF shows a 70-90% probability of temperatures exceeding 60F. The trend continues into Monday with highs climbing into the 70s(F) to near 80F.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1019 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Prevailing low level stratus along with isolated areas of light rain and patchy fog will allow IFR cigs/vsbys to continue in vicinity of all TAF sites through mid/late afternoon. Lifting/scattering out of low level stratus is then expected across extreme southwest Kansas this evening, potentially reaching as far east as KGCK and KLBL. Otherwise, expect IFR cigs to persist across central and much of southwest Kansas overnight with MVFR cigs possibly by daybreak. Northerly winds 10 to 20kt will develop this afternoon as a surface low tracks eastward through northwest Oklahoma, then subsiding this evening while becoming more westerly generally after 02-04Z as lee side troughing develops in eastern Colorado.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.