textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong cold front races through southwest Kansas Friday followed by strong north winds gusting near 50 mph, and falling temperatures.

- A light freeze is expected across much of southwest Kansas Saturday and Sunday mornings, with sunrise temperatures of 28-32 common.

- After a seasonably cool Saturday, another rapid warming trend is expected Sunday through Tuesday.

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry for at least another week, through April 23 bringing continued fire weather concerns.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

The trough positioned over the northwest CONUS continues to deepen as it moves eastward. It continues to look like a system capable of providing an environment primed to produce strong severe weather on Friday, although all or nearly all will miss out on the CWA. The associated surface low is currently settled over Wyoming with a strong cold front already developed along a diagonal tilt to the southwest into the Rockies.

In the meantime before the systems arrival, quiet and dry weather is expected to continue across SW Kansas. Some marginal fire weather conditions may persist into the overnight with dry air and marginal south/southwest winds. Friday will see the aforementioned cold front sweep across Kansas starting in the early morning hours. Much of the weather Friday will hinge on this cold front in both timing and impact. The model/ensembles consensus, especially in the latest runs, is that the cold front will arrive sooner and sooner. The current forecast now is that much of the front will pass before noon. CAMs have storm initiation at around 2 pm, but the front that will provide most of the forcing will be into or through Barber county already. The environment will be very conducive for potentially dangerous severe weather across the central CONUS, but with little to no impact to the CWA details will not be delved into. In the most favorable scenario where the front is slower, the front may reach Barber at a time similar as initiation. This would allow some storms to impact Barber, but even the time needed for the storms to reach maturity may be too long before the storms exit Barber county.

The timing and strength of the front will also greatly impact winds and highs Friday. Highs have a tremendous spread based on the front with the northwestern counties struggling to reach 60 degrees and highs in Barber county approaching 80 degrees. The front and CAA will greatly overpower diurnal heating so the temperatures present when the front passes through will likely be the high. And with most of the timings being before or around noon, highs for most places will be much lower than Thursday. Strong winds will be present aloft and provide a favorable environment with winds immediately behind the front and developing later on into Friday. Winds will end up at of the north with winds gusts of 50+ mph being possible. An exact wind gust forecast will be easier to provide once many of the details regarding the front are ironed out.

With the strong CAA, a Freeze Watch is in effect for Friday night/Saturday morning for the western half of the CWA. Saturday highs are forecast in the 60s with renewed fire weather concerns. The whole CWA will be near or below 15% relative humidities. While the winds of 10-15 with gusts of 20 mph is well below headline criteria, with the extended dry period cautions are still advised. Saturday night/Sunday morning lows are again going to flirt with subfreezing, especially in the northwestern counties.

The start of next week is forecast to be dry and quiet with little notable weather outside of continued fire weather risk especially in the western counties. Sunday-Thursday all have conditions west of Highway 83 forecast to approach or exceed fire weather headline conditions. Precautions will need to be taken and future forecasts' focus will be needed. Long ranged ensembles have a weak trough aloft impacting SW Kansas later in the week with around 10-20% chances for precipitation. Between the temporal uncertainty and lack of driving factors that is to be taken with a grain of salt until those systems are realized.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1143 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected for all sites through the TAF period. Some LLWS was originally forecast, but has not yet materialized; some LLWS may develop prior to 11Z, but ensembles keep chances below thresholds to include in the prevailing group. Winds will start breezy out of the south at 15-20 KTs. By around 13Z, a cold front will shift winds significantly to out of the north with winds strengthening into the day up to 30 KTs with gusts up to 45 KTs possible. Skies are forecast to be clear/mostly clear through the period.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>087.