textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms eastern zones Saturday evening may produce marginally severe hail and wind gusts.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms will bring beneficial rainfall overnight into Sunday morning.

- Much cooler Mother's Day, with afternoon temperatures in the 60s and slowly diminishing northeast winds.

- Rapid warming trend early next week, with 90s expected Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Midday surface observations depicted elevated southwest winds across southwest Kansas, with the associated downslope compression sending temperatures soaring through the 70s and 80s. Moisture was very limited, with dewpoints restricted to the 40s, and mesoanalysis depicting little if any instability across SW KS. Despite this poor thermodynamic environment, models are in good agreement showing at least isolated thunderstorms developing after 4 pm across the eastern zones, with convergence along a prefrontal trough sufficient for initiation. Any storms will clearly be high-based with inverted-V profiles, with associated virga producing strong/erratic outflow wind gusts. SPC maintains marginal 5% wind probability from this activity, but high end/organized severe weather appears very unlikely north of the KS/OK border.

Cold front races through SW KS this evening, with an increase in northeast winds and the onset of cold advection. Most locations will be dry in the evening, but models are converging on increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage after midnight, as a stronger shortwave embedded in the northwest flow approaches from Colorado. Global models agree with this thinking, and the 12z ARW suggests much of the rain may fall southwest of Dodge City, where it is most needed in the ongoing severe/extreme drought. Did increase pops more solidly into the chance category after midnight through sunrise Sunday, but further increases will likely be required. 12z NAM forecasts elevated CAPE near 1000 J/kg overnight, so some thunder is likely after midnight, along with some marginally severe elevated hail potential. Northeast winds will remain elevated and gusty through Sunday morning.

Models are trending cooler for Mother's Day, both as a function of a sharp reduction in 850 temperatures, but also as a result of clouds and rain showers lingering through some of the morning. Sunshine will return during the afternoon, which will allow temperatures to rebound to the 60s. That said, 12z MOS guidance is 5-10 degrees cooler than the NBM. Surface high pressure ridging will provide efficient radiational cooling and below normal temperatures, in the upper 30s and lower 40s sunrise Monday.

All models show strong warming Monday afternoon, under the eastern periphery of a 590 dm midlevel ridge building near the Four Corners. Strong height/thickness rises and the return of elevated south winds will easily allow 80s in the afternoon. Further warming is expected Tuesday, with lower to mid 90s expected south of a weak cold front entering the northern zones during the afternoon. Some areas adjacent to Oklahoma, such as the favored Red Hills, will approach 100 Tuesday afternoon, especially if prefrontal downslope compression persists much of the day.

Strong midlevel ridge over New Mexico 7 pm Tuesday, will flatten and spread east into Texas through Thursday, with a related strong ridge axis phasing out onto the plains. Unseasonably warm to hot afternoons will result, with NBM suggesting the hottest day will be Thursday in the mid to upper 90s. Southwesterly downslope winds gusting over 40 mph will also create critical fire weather conditions Thursday afternoon, with fire headlines expected.

Unfortunately, the entire forecast Monday through Friday next week is dry for all of SW KS, and the ongoing severe to extreme drought will continue to intensify and expand. Hot windy afternoons such as Thursday will only magnify this process. We are entering the climatological wettest time of year for SW KS, and to see dry stretches, such as that forecasted into mid May, is concerning regarding drought management concerns.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 545 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Variable flight conditions are expected through the flight period. A line of storms is forecast to exit through all sites before the period along with a wind shift as the boundary moves through. Winds will settle out of the north/northeast at around 15 KTs. Around 7Z another round of thundershowers is forecast across nearly all of the CWA. Along with the precipitation, lowered ceilings and potentially lowered flight conditions. GCK and LBL are expected to see the lowest flight conditions with ensembles chances at 50-70%. DDC and HYS may still see lowered ceilings despite their chances being significantly lower <40%. Around 16Z, winds will strengthen to around 15-20KTs from the northeast as ceilings recover back to VFR.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.