textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Loosely organized thunderstorm cluster to affect areas mainly south of the Arkansas River to the Oklahoma line late this evening. Severe weather risk is quite low.

- The severe weather risk for Sunday through Tuesday will be focused on areas mainly east of our southwest Kansas region, keeping our area west of the dryline and increased critical fire weather risk.

- Monday and Tuesday look to be the most widespread critical fire weather days as stronger southwest winds develop west of the dryline.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

A broad southwest flow pattern aloft continued across much of the western half of the CONUS, including across western Kansas. Within the larger scale pattern, a southern stream shortwave trough was moving northeast out of the Desert Southwest region with quite a bit of mid level moisture along with lower tropospheric gulf moisture. This isn't exactly a classic severe weather pattern given the formidable subtropical moisture involved. Surface analysis late this morning showed a large area of southerly winds across much of the Great Plains. There is not much in the way of low level convergence, but the absence of a strong cap ahead of the subtropical wave will favor isolated to widely scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two just about anywhere across the western half of Kansas through this evening.

Later on this evening, the best signal for at least somewhat organized thunderstorm activity will initiate across eastern Colorado south across far eastern New Mexico. One or two small mesoscale convective systems (MCS) will likely move east across the western/southern plains late tonight. The northern portion of one such MCS may impact the southern one half to one third of the DDC CWA, so we will keep POPs highest from roughly Arkansas River south to the Oklahoma line tonight (30-40%). The aforementioned southern stream jet steak will advance east on Sunday, and this will put southwestern Kansas in a region of subsidence behind the morning disturbance while a larger disturbance begins to mature much farther west across the Great Basin region. The low level pattern will adjust to the next larger system on Sunday, so winds will stay out of the south to southwest. The increased westerly component to surface winds Sunday will push higher dewpoints farther east, and given the larger scale subsidence, this will lead to a dry forecast for southwest Kansas Sunday.

The dryline will be positioned pretty far to the east Sunday late afternoon/evening, and we will watch for redevelopment of an isolated surface-based thunderstorm or two along the dryline from south central KS into western OK. This morning's CAMs and even non- CAM models show a very poor convective signal along the dryline, but we will carry some 15 to 20% POPs across the Red Hills given some convergence along dryline and a decent amount of CAPE (>2000 J/kg) and deep layer shear to support supercell thunderstorm structures.

Of more concern in this pattern for western Kansas, especially as the larger scale trough moves east Monday and Tuesday, will be critical fire weather conditions as the dryline is expected to remain pretty far to the east across central and south central Kansas Monday and Tuesday. The fire weather concern will be discussed more in the Fire Weather section.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1101 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Strong south-southwest winds will continue to expand across western Kansas this afternoon, ushering in a warmer air mass and allowing low ceiling to erode. DDC, GCK, HYS, and LBL terminals will all be VFR flight category the remainder of the day and into tonight. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop, however the absence of significant forcing for ascent and lack of low level convergence will keep any convective activity few and far between through this evening. Thus, we will not carry any mention of thunderstorms in the TAFs for our four airports, at least until there is a stronger signal for more organized convection near any of DDC, GCK, HYS, or LBL airports through Sunday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 154 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are likely Sunday across mainly far southwest with critical fire weather conditions likely across a larger area of west central and southwest Kansas Monday and Tuesday as a large upper level storm system approaches from the west.

On Sunday, a southwesterly downslope plume will advance on southwest Kansas, but stronger winds supportive of critical conditions are expected to remain west of Highway 83 and generally south of Highway 50. We have added in Haskell and Seward County along Highway 83, however, as there is some increased confidence in the stronger southwest winds advancing toward Highway 83 to the south of Garden City. We will keep the headline as a watch for now.

Monday and Tuesday are both more concerning for wider spread critical conditions as the main upper level system draws closer to southwest Kansas. Classic, dry southwesterly momentum push is likely south of a deepening surface low. There is still some question as to how far south the surface low will mature, and this may help keep the strongest southwest winds farther south, but for now, we will go ahead and issue the Fire Weather Watch for all counties along/south of Highway 96 and along/west of Highway 283. Tuesday looks like a similar set up, but we will not hoist a Watch for Tuesday yet with the focus more on the short term Sunday and Monday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for KSZ043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for KSZ061-062-074>076-084>086.