textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- There are chances for t-storms this evening, with hail to quarter size and wind gusts up to 60 mph with the strongest cells. - Much cooler weather is forecast for Friday from Dodge City northward, with highs in the 40s and 50s north and 70s south.

- There are varying chances for t-storms Friday and Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Marginal moisture over south Texas continues to flow northward and become deeply mixed and thinned in the vertical across southwest Kansas with strong daytime heating. A front will be draped across central Kansas today with a surface trough extending southwestward to near Liberal. There are chances for late afternoon and evening t-storms, with best chance across central Kansas around Hays. The NAM is way too moist given the lack of deep moisture across the southern plains. Therefore, this model is overdoing the instability. Expect CAPE values on the order of 500-1000 j/kg as opposed to 1500 j/kg. Hail as large as quarters is possible along with wind gusts to 60 mph are given deep inverted-vf profiles.

A shallow cool air mass is expected to push into Kansas on Friday. Much cooler air is predicted with highs in the 40s and 50s across western Kansas. Locations nearer the Oklahoma state line may reach into the 70s to lower 80s.There is a chance of thunderstorms along the front at Medicine Lodge and Coldwater. The NBM guidance is likely too high with rain chances on the cool side of the front Friday. So dont expect much in the way of rain from Dodge City north and west. The storms along the Oklahoma state line may be marginally severe; but there is a chance these could be south of the state line if the frontal push is stronger, which is normally the case.

The mid level flow will become southwesterly by Saturday and this will allow the lee trough to develop far enough south to tap the tropical moisture and being it northward. However, the various ensemble systems continue to show poor lapse rates and no well defined moisture gradients. But given the weak mid level capping and marginal to moderate instability, thunderstorms are still a possibility; but severe weather(at least the high-end variety) is unlikely.

By Sunday a deep upper level trough will be situated along the West Coast. Surface troughing ahead of this system will continue to bring moisture northward from the tropics. A poorly defined dry line is expected to be located across the central or high plains. By this time, the elevated mixed layer will begin playing a role in fostering an environment of higher instability but stronger capping. If a storm develops it would likely become severe with very large hail. As is often the case, the best chances will be along and south of the 37th parallel given the lack of strong forcing that would increase convergence farther north.

The best chance of severe storms is on Monday and Tuesday across central Kansas from Hays southward to Pratt and Medicine Lodge as the upper level trough gets closer and dry line convergence increases. Storms may still be isolated Monday as the primary forcing stays west of the low level moisture and given a thickness ridge over the high plains and strong capping. The best chance of severe weather is on Tuesday; but it is unclear how far west the dry line will be. Central Kansas has the best chance of severe weather. And this system is still several days away and the exact timing, which dictates locations of storms, is still uncertain.

The various ensemble means still do not how signals of widespread rainfall through the next week, with chances for .5" or greater 50-80% at Pratt but only 10-20% in Syracuse and Ulysses.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 518 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

VFR ceilings are expected between 8000 and 12000 feet AGL for a few hours between 12z to 15z today with even a slight chance of sprinkles or light rainshowers near Hays. After 15z the skies will clear and the southerly winds across southwest Kansas will increase to 20 to 25 knots between 15z and 18z as stronger winds in the boundary layer mixes down to the surface. After 00z Friday, these gusty winds will gradually decrease to around 15 knots, and VFR conditions will return. Scattered thunderstorms are possible between 03z and 09z Friday as a cold front crossing southwest Kansas especially in the Hays and Dodge City areas. As the front passes the southerly winds will shift to the northeast at 10 to 15 knots. Following the cold front passage...low clouds between 1000 to 2500 feet AGL are forecast to spread into southwest Kansas.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.