textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning in effect for far southwest Kansas

- Marginal (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather this afternoon

- Brief cool down; warming back up into next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Today's weather situation features critical fire weather and a marginal severe weather risk. See Fire Weather Section for details on the critical fire weather conditions.

Current observations show a cold front cutting through the forecast area from the northwest, oriented from northeast to southwest, with a dryline right along the KS/OK border. These features are expected to play a roll in the development of thunderstorms, some severe, mid to late afternoon. The greatest chance for any thunderstorm activity is along the Route 183 corridor and east. The cold front across the northern portions of the CWA is expected to be the main focus for thunderstorms develop. Effective bulk shear near and along the front is 40-50 knots, ample to support severe weather potential. However, shear flow is parallel to this boundary, meaning any storms that do happen to develop will only be able to be isolated briefly until congealing more into a line or clusters. With MLCAPE around 1,000 J/kg and the aforementioned shear, an isolated supercell or multicell cluster would be able to produce severe wind gusts up to 60-70 mph and/or hail to 2" in diameter. The second area that bears watching, albeit lower chances of having thunderstorm develop, will be along the dryline across south- central Kansas. Nearly all CAMs struggle to develop much until it is east of the forecast area. Chances are lower along the dryline due to weaker convergence along it. However, still added some storm and POP chances in the southeast counties to account for the off chance something is to develop. Again, hazards would be damaging winds 60-70 mph and large hail to 2" in diameter. The tornado risk is quite low given better low-level SRH is displaced much farther east of the forecast area, but will not entirely rule it out should a storm be able to develop along the dryline with any storm that tries to turn more toward the right. The overall limiting factor for all areas is the residency time of storms in the CWA as the boundaries are expected to clear the area by around 6-7 PM, ending the severe risk.

After this afternoon, northwesterly breezy conditions behind the cold front will persist through the overnight hours and into Saturday morning. This flow will usher in cooler air, with highs in the upper 50s for most. Though this cooler weather will be short lived as temperatures will quickly rise back into the 70s and low 80s by Sunday and into the start of next week. This warm up will be the result of westerly downslope flow as mid-level winds becomes more zonal.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1115 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

VFR conditions will primarily prevail across the area through the period. The forecast will consist mainly of breezy conditions. The front will be through all TAF sites by the start of the period, leaving breezy northwesterly winds. Expect generally 15-20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots at times. With the front east of the sites, any precipitation along the front should remain east, so will leave out any mention at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1200 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

An eastward moving dryline across the KS/OK border this afternoon is leaving behind gusty winds and low relative humidity values. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of southwest Kansas. Humidity levels will fall as low as 10-15% with southwest winds 15-25, gusting to 35 mph. Fires could catch, spread rapidly, and be difficult to contain in such conditions. Humidity levels climb after 7 PM.

Dry conditions reemerge into Saturday, however weaker winds are likely to preclude a higher fire weather risk.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CST this evening for KSZ084>086.