textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot weather will persist through Monday.

- Dangerous wildfire conditions can be expected west of US 283 this afternoon and Monday afternoon.

- There are small chances for severe storms in central Kansas and possibly in southwest Kansas on Sunday and Monday evenings.

- Much cooler air will arrive for Tuesday.

- There are chances for rain Wednesday and Thursday, but forecast uncertainty remains very high on potential amounts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

A strong upper level storm system will approach the plains Monday. This trough will be digging into the Rockies today with the jet maximum on the back side. When this happen, cold surges typically occur across the plains. Today a cool front will move into southwest Kansas this afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, winds will be strong out of the southwest, with very low humidity. During the evening a surge of moisture will advance rapidly northward from western Oklahoma into southwest Kansas and impinge on the front. A major question is how far south and west storms develop as the front becomes stationary and low level jet develops. The best chance of severe storms is across central Kansas in places like St. John, Rush Center and Larned, although even there the chances of any one location experiencing severe storms is 10-20% or less. But isolated storms later in the evening could affect locations as far southwest as Dodge City. But this is a very low probability scenario (less than 10%). If storms develop, very large hail would be the main concern.

On Monday the trough ejects out onto the high plains late in he day. A dry line is expected to stretch from Dodge City southward into the Panhandles, with a surface low somewhere near Dodge City. It remains unclear whether this front will charge southeastward, with a solid line of storms, or whether a surface cyclone will result in a strong warm surge ahead of the low, with discrete supercell storms. With an ejecting shortwave trough to the northeast, the latter seems more likely. However, given the rapid storm movement at 40 mph or more, storms forming near the surface low would become severe in central Kansas, with the highest chances around Larned, Rush Center and St. John. Vertical shear profiles ahead of the low will likely be supportive of damaging tornadoes and very large hail. But then again, if the convective mode is linear as opposed to cellular, then damaging winds and marginally severe hail would be the main concerns. Strong southwest winds will exist behind the dry line southwest of Dodge City in locations such as Liberal, Ulysses, Elkhart and Satanta, with any storm chances close to 0%. Strong north winds with gusts to 50+ mph are highly likely after frontal passage Monday evening and night.

Cooler air is expected starting Tuesday in the wake of the cold front, with highs mainly in the 60s and lows in the 40s. Rich low level moisture will get swept deep into Texas by Wednesday so that as the next storm system approaches Wednesday into Thursday, most of the convective instability and thunderstorms will be south of Kansas. There is considerable spread between the ensemble systems and between individual ensemble members, with some paining a wet scenario and others mostly dry. Despite the lack of strong instability, widespread light to occasionally moderate rain is possible if the more robust solution verifies that shows a warm advection pattern with mid level frontogenesis. The 90th percentile of the ensemble means show rains of .25" to .4" while the 10th percentile has almost no rain. That said, the ensemble means have been trending wetter of late.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 639 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

strong south to southwest winds will develop later this morning, peaking in the 22 to 26 knot range with gusts up to 40 knots at times through the afternoon. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are likely along the cold front/dryline intersection near Hays early this evening, so a PROB30 group for thunderstorms has been introduced into the HYS TAF. VFR flight category is expected to continue through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

A red flag warning remains in effect for today for much of southwest Kansas. Southwesterly winds of 25-35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph and extremely low humidity in the 5 to 10% range will lead to high-end critical fire weather conditions. High- end fire weather conditions are also forecast for Monday to the west of Dodge City and southward to Liberal and Elkhart, with similar winds and humidity values.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065- 074>080-084>089.