textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rain likely to develop late Friday Night and continue through the day Saturday.

- Greater confidence now in widespread one-quarter to one-half of total precipitation, with the highest probability of one- half inch or more (50% or greater confidence) southeast of a Montezuma to Larned line.

- Increasing confidence in very strong winds and dangerous Critical Fire Weather conditions Tuesday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1140 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

The main forecast challenge continues to be rainfall timing and amounts with the next storm system coming at us late Friday Night into the day Saturday. The three major global spectral model ensemble systems have narrowed the spread in respective QPF Mean fields for much of southwest Kansas. The ECMWF ensemble system (ENS) has come up with its QPF for Dodge City while the Canadian GEPS has come down off its high-end solution.

From a meteorological evolution perspective, there will be two potential vorticity (PV) anomalies of interest that will rotate through the larger scale trough axis as the entire trough axis moves east. The initial PV anomaly will eject northeastward from well down into the subtropics of Baja California (early Friday) up into New Mexico Friday Night. This evolution will induce weak to modest cyclogenesis in 850-700mb layer out ahead of the 400mb PV anomaly, favoring increased warm, moist advection in this layer up into the Texas Panhandle and eventually southwest Kansas. Pretty much all the deterministic/control runs of the global models (and even the NAM) show a favorable scenario of increased moisture, warm advection, and eventually a deformation axis encompassing the roughly southern/southeastern half of the DDC CWA to support light to occasionally moderate rainfall. The best time window looks to be roughly 06Z Saturday to 21Z Saturday, so much of the day Saturday now looks to be cool and wet for at least the southeastern half of the CWA. Thus, POPs have been increased into 85-90 or higher for the southeast half.

The latest 01Z of the NBM has increased its probability of 0.25"+ storm total rainfall of 8 to 15% across much of southwest Kansas from 13Z run 12 hours prior (i.e. from 65% at DDC to 74% on the latest run). As far as heavier rainfall amounts go from a meteorological standpoint, they will most likely occur across a west- southwest to east-northeast axis tied to the initial PV anomaly and associated 700mb deformation zone. Latest 01Z 50th percentile totals continue to be highest farther southeast with nearly 3/4" at Medicine Lodge and nearly an inch at Kiowa right along the Oklahoma line.

Rain will begin to pull away from our region Saturday evening, but it will not be any cooler behind the storm. An even larger Pacific storm system will develop off the coast of California late in the weekend, and a very strong upper level jet will develop at the base of this trough and eventually extend out across the Desert Southwest into the Southern Rockies and Central Plains by Tuesday and Wednesday. We are growing increasingly concerned about Tuesday, as a 500mb jet of 100+ knots becomes centered over the Central/Southern High Plains. This would induce a very deep leeside trough/low and very strong winds in the lower troposphere. Strong downslope southwest winds, particularly Tuesday, tied with very warm temperatures and low dewpoints would lead to potential widespread Critical Fire Weather episode. Given the increased confidence, we have collaborated with neighboring High Plains NWS offices and the WPC in going with roughly 75th percentile winds/gusts and 25th percentile dewpoints during the day Tuesday in order to match the messaging we will likely begin putting out regarding concerning critical fire weather (and possible High Wind) Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 506 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Light winds are expected through the period as the pressure gradient remains light. An increase in mid to high level cloud is forecast as an upper level storm system develops across the Desert Southwest. VFR conditions will persist.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.