textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Remaining rain will end rapidly this evening, followed by a clearing sky through Friday morning.

- Some of the most beautiful days of the year expected Friday through Sunday, with sunshine, light winds, and mild temperatures.

- Coolest morning of the young fall season is expected Saturday, with temperatures in the 40s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

WV imagery indicates a closed upper low transitioning east through the high plains of western Kansas and the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas. Near the surface, a stalled frontal boundary attendant to a low in extreme southwest Kansas extends northeast into southeast Nebraska.

Based on radar trends/CAMs, ongoing showers/thunderstorms will continue to develop southward across much of southwest Kansas this afternoon, then end west to east later this evening as the SREF indicates a closed upper low opening up as it begins to accelerate eastward through the Central Plains tonight, giving way to a more zonal flow aloft across the Western High Plains Friday. The main focus the next several hours will be for possible flash flooding as already saturated ground from prolonged rainfall the previous day lends to a heightened flooding potential through early evening. This is supported with most models showing high QPF signals as well as SPC Mesoanalysis indicating PW values nearing 1.5 inches. A much drier pattern is forecast to take hold across the region through the weekend as a developing upper level ridge begins to amplify across the Intermountain West while much drier air in the lower/mid-levels dominates the Western High Plains.

The coolest temperatures of the season are likely tonight as cooler air begins to spill into western Kansas behind an advancing cold front, dropping H85 temperatures below 10C across much of southwest Kansas by daybreak Friday. According to the latest HREF, there is a better than 90% probability of temperatures slipping below 50F in west central Kansas into central Kansas in vicinity of the I-70 corridor to a 50-70% probability of temperatures dropping below 55F in south central Kansas. So, look for lows down into the 40s(F) northwest to the lower 50s(F) southeast. For a change, unseasonably cool temperatures are forecast Friday as departing surface high pressure through the Upper Midwest reinforces a cooler air mass in place across the high plains of western Kansas within a northeastly upslope flow, holding H85 temperatures down around 10-12C. With the HREF painting a widespread 90% probability of temperatures exceeding 60F, expect afternoon highs up into the 60s(F) with the warmest highs in south central Kansas where there is a 80-90% probability of temperatures topping 65F. Rebounding temperatures are to be expected Saturday as surface high pressure continues to push farther off to the east through the Great Lakes while lee side troughing redevelops in eastern Colorado, returning southerlies to western Kansas. This will tap into slightly warmer air to our south, helping push H85 temperatures above 13-15C. Under ample sunshine, expect more seasonable temperatures with fairly widespread 70s(F) for highs.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 440 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Flight categories will rapidly improve to VFR over the next few hours, as the strong storm system pulls away from SW KS, and subsidence prevails. Strong northeast winds currently gusting near 30 kts will also gradually diminish after 00z Fri. Excellent flying weather is expected after 12z Fri, with VFR and light winds continuing through Friday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030- 031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.