textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat wave continues through early next week, with afternoon temperatures well over 100 degrees. This will be a dry heat with strong south winds, increasing the risk of dehydration each afternoon. Drink plenty of water, and ensure pets and livestock have a sufficient water supply.

- A pattern change is expected late next week, with much cooler temperatures and improved rainfall opportunities.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1237 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

WV imagery indicates a northwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of a ridge centered across the Desert Southwest. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure is slowly strengthening across eastern Colorado.

Minimal thunderstorm chances (20%) exist across west central/central Kansas this evening as the SREF indicates a weak upper level shortwave and associated H5 vort maxima cycling southeast off the ridge axis in the Northern Rockies into the high plains of western Nebraska and northeast Colorado. Near the surface, prevailing southerlies will support pooling moisture ahead of an advancing dryline, providing modest instability with MUCAPE values upward of 1000 J/kg or so. Despite weaker dynamic support aloft, steeping mid- level lapse rates in vicinity of an axis of increased low level convergence associated with the dryline will set the stage for potential isolated thunderstorm development this evening as H5 vort maxima transition through. This is suggested by a few CAMs and the HREF pointing to only a 10 to 20% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding a mere 0.1 of an inch in vicinity of the I-70 corridor by late evening. Hotter/drier conditions are likely the next couple of days as southwesterly downsloping enhances a drier air mass across the Western High Plains.

Very warm temperatures are forecast tonight as southwesterly downsloping reinforces a warmer air mass across southwest/central Kansas. With the HREF painting a 70-90% probability of temperatures dropping below 75F in west central and extreme southwest Kansas to to only a 10-20% probability of slipping below 75F in south central Kansas, look for lows generally down into 70s(F). Southwesterly downsloping will further enhance drier air into southwest Kansas Sunday, nudging H85 temperatures up from Saturday with a little above 30C in central Kansas to near 35C near the Colorado line. Expect widespread afternoon highs topping 100F with the HREF showing a widespread 80-90% probability of temperatures exceeding the century mark. Similar conditions are likely Monday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 430 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

VFR/SKC will continue through this TAF period, with scattered cirrus. Radar at 2130z showed high based convection well NW of GCK, moving southeast. This activity is expected to weaken and not reach the GCK terminal, but will be monitored. Other thunderstorms east of HYS are expected to remain east of that airport. Elevated southwest winds currently will trend south and remain elevated through tonight, with a strong low level jet keeping the boundary layer mixed. Included low level wind shear in TAFs as appropriate. After 15z Sun, southwest winds will increase again at all airports, gusting 25-30 kts.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.