textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend continues today as afternoon highs reach the upper 70s/low 80s amidst gusty southerly winds.

- Stronger southerly winds daytime Friday, sustained in the 20-30 mph range, but slightly cooler temperatures.

- Widespread precipitation is expected over the weekend into early next business week, with 0.5-2" of rainfall possible along with much cooler temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis late Wednesday evening reveal a highly amplified synoptic pattern is in place atop the CONUS, with ridging extending from the southern plains northward through south-central Canada, and a powerful cut- off low just off the west coast. At the surface, broad high pressure overspreads nearly the entire CONUS east of the Rockies, supporting light and variable winds across southwest KS. Through the remainder of the overnight period, light winds and clear skies will aid in Thursday morning lows dropping into the upper 40s to low 50s. Daytime Thursday, short range guidance indicates the aforementioned synoptic features will slowly shift eastward, with the core of the upper trough approaching the Intermountain West by 00Z Friday. In response, lee cyclogenesis will begin in eastern MT and adjacent areas, which will tighten the pressure gradient across the central plains to result in southerly winds increasing into the 15-25 mph range gusting to 35 mph. Additionally, 850-mb temperatures will warm by 2-4 degrees C, which will translate to afternoon highs rising well above normal into the upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight Thursday, southerly winds will remain elevated, fostering weaker radiational cooling and Friday morning lows in the upper 50s.

Daytime Friday, short range ensembles agree the deep upper wave will continue to advance eastward towards the central Rockies. As DPVA increases over the High Plains, the lee cyclone will deepen to sub- 1000-mb, engendering strong southerly winds across southwest KS. At their peak during the late morning through mid-afternoon, winds will be sustained in the 20-30 mph range gusting to 40-45 mph. On the other hand, temperatures will begin to cool as decreasing 500-mb heights brings afternoon highs down into the mid to upper 70s.

Saturday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles suggest the strong upper trough will stall out over the central Rockies during the weekend before another shortwave trough diving southeast from south-central Canada finally kicks it out onto the High Plains early next business week. This synoptic evolution is ideal for precipitation chances across our area, with rainfall expected to begin across our western zones Saturday, become more widespread daytime Sunday, then exiting stage right on Monday. Once all is said and done early Tuesday, both the ECMWF ENS and GEFS mean total precipitation fields show 0.5-1" of rainfall roughly along and east of a Hays-Meade line, and 1-2" to the west. Temperatures will also fall considerably during this time frame, with afternoon highs in the mid 70s on Saturday dropping into the upper 50s/low 60s Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Surface observations across southwest KS at the beginning of this TAF cycle show VFR flying conditions and light/variable winds at all terminals. High-resolution guidance suggests some fog development is possible after 07Z, mainly at GCK and LBL, and to a lesser extent DDC, which would bring visibility into IFR/LIFR. Any fog should mix out by 15-16Z, and the remainder of the TAF period should see VFR flying conditions at all terminals. Otherwise, current light and variable winds will increase out of the south into the 15-20 kt range gusting to 30 kts by early afternoon. Some slight weakening of the winds is likely after sunset, but winds should hold in the 12-16 kt range overnight.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.