textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain is forecast for Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning, with only a few hundredths of an inch at best in Hays and up to .5" along the Oklahoma state line.

- Some cloud cover will persist Sunday through Tuesday, with cool days and mild nights, along with a gradual warmup.

- A warmup is expected by Wednesday across far western Kansas, with highs possibly reaching into the 60s to near 70 in Syracuse and Elkhart.

- There is a lot of uncertainty with regard to rain chances late next week and next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1116 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

North to northeast winds have brought cooler air into southwest Kansas today. This wedge of cool air will be very slow to erode even after the cool high pressure moves off to the east. A storm system will close off to our south by Saturday night, with abundant moisture in place for light rain. Any heavy rains should stay well south given the stably stratified lower to mid levels and lack of strong thermal advections. The various ensemble means have settled on a solution that would bring minor amounts of rain to I-70 and up to .5" of rain along the Oklahoma state line. In between in places like Lakin, Dodge City and Jetmore, expect amounts between .1" and .4", with exact amounts depending on where the northern edge of the rain shield sets up. Per grand ensemble, chances for over 1" of rain are 10% or less along the Oklahoma state line and near 0% farther north, giving confidence that this will not be a heavy rain event. That said, median November precipitation at Garden City and Dodge City is only .31" and .42" respectively, so even a third of an inch is respectable for this time of year.

After the aforementioned system passes, there is no strong upper level trough passage and associated front that would scour out the cool and moist air. A south wind is not always a warm wind in the cool season since downslope flow tends to be negligible. Therefore, expect highs below below climatology in the 40s Sunday even after the rain ends, with lower to mid 50s for Monday and Tuesday. Overnight lows will be rather mild and above climatology since cloud cover, relatively high dewpoints and south winds will inhibit diurnal cooling. However, by Wednesday a shortwave trough traversing the northern plains may be enough to push a dry downslope front across the high plains. How far east this warm plume gets ahead of the associated cold front is questionable. But far western Kansas may reach into the 60s to near 70 on Wednesday, with 50s to near 60 in central Kansas.

The various model suites still indicate a large upper level trough developing across the western USA by late next week. Surface troughing and south winds should bring moisture back into western Kansas by Thursday and Friday, possibly leading to another period of cloudy weather. The increasing moisture and south winds will keep temperatures near climatology during the day and well above climatology at night. It is uncertain whether this storm system will linger long enough across the western USA to bring enough moisture and warmth to foster shower and t-storm formation. The later it gets in the fall the tougher it is to get large amounts of warm sector precipitation this far west. If the storm system progresses eastward rather quickly then the warm and moist conveyor belt would be across eastern Kansas and points east per climatology. It is extremely difficult to get large amounts of warm sector precipitation in far western Kansas in November, but a little easier for central Kansas. Thus, central Kansas locations are favored over the far west.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 425 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Lowered visibility may approach the GCK terminal this morning but should dissipate by late morning if it comes to fruition. Otherwise expect VFR conditions to prevail with mostly clear skies. Winds will be from the southeast throughout the day.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.