textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and unseasonably warm temperatures will produce critical fire weather conditions across southwest Kansas Thursday afternoon. A Red Flag Warning is in effect Thursday.

- An elevated fire risk will be possible near the Colorado border on Friday.

- Our next shot of cold air returns to western Kansas this weekend along with strong gusty north winds. Highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s on Saturday will give way to highs only in the 40s and 50s on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1114 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Warm and dry conditions will return to southwest Kansas late week. Gusty southwest winds along with the continued dry conditions and warming temperatures on Thursday will increase the fire risk. Confidence is high that critical fire conditions will be reached during the afternoon and as a result will be upgrading the Fire Watch to a Red Flag Warning. The fire risk concerns will continue on Friday, but the main focus for the higher fire risks will be near the Colorado border. A cold front will arrive Saturday night, causing temperatures to drop sharply. Highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s will be replaced by 40s/50s on Sunday. Precipitation chances are very low/NIL.

Critical fire weather conditions Thursday across southwest Kansas and possibly again near the Colorado border on Friday. A northern branch upper level trough will move across the northern Plains on Thursday, increasing westerly downslope flow over western Kansas. As this upper trough crosses the northern plains a surface trough will also cross western Kansas. West of this surface boundary, especially west of Highway 183, gusty southwest winds are expected due to deep mixing. This mixing will also favor low afternoon relative humidity, potentially dropping to around 10%. This combination of gusty southwest winds and low humidity will create critical fire weather conditions across southwest Kansas. As a result, the Fire Weather Watch will be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning.

The fire weather risk will decrease on Friday but will still need to be monitored in a few locations. The reason for the decreased fire risk is due to a weak cold front briefly moving into southwest Kansas early and lingering through the late day. Near this boundary, winds will be lighter than on Thursday, and humidity values will be higher due to cooler afternoon temperatures. The exception is along the Colorado border, where humidity values are once again forecast to fall into the 10 to 15 percent range. In this area, at least elevated fire weather conditions will be possible.

The next shot of colder air will return to southwest Kansas over the weekend. Warmer temperatures will return for the start of the work week as cooler air from Fridays cold front erodes from west to east. This warmth precedes our next strong cold front, which will be moving south across Nebraska late Saturday. This strong cold front will cross southwest Kansas Saturday night as an upper level trough moves from the Rockies across the Central Plains. Expect a significant drop in temperatures as this cold front passes given the cold air advection from the strong gusty north winds. On Sunday southwest Kansas will see high temperatures struggle to reach 50 degrees in many locations. Gusty north winds, possibly exceeding 45 mph, will make it feel even colder. Lows Sunday night are expected to fall back into the teens, especially west of Dodge City. The NBM indicates a 50-80% chance of highs below 50 degrees north of Dodge City on Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1114 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Gusty north winds will decrease after 21Z today as an area of high pressure at the surface begins to build into western Kansas. After 00Z Thursday, the winds will become light and variable as the surface high crosses the area. Early Thursday morning, as the winds become south-southwest, they will then increase after 15Z into the 15 to 20 knot range. Afternoon VFR ceilings will give way to clearing skies late in the day.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1114 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Critical Fire Weather Conditions on Thursday

A trough of low pressure at the surface will move east of highway 183 by early Thursday afternoon as an upper level trough crosses the Northern Plains. West of this boundary, a dry west to southwest wind will develop. Based on the mixing depth potential shown in the BUFR soundings, these wind speeds will be higher than the current NBM forecast. Also given the mixing depth potential it appears that afternoon humidity values should easily fall back into the teens and even bottom out in the 10% to 15% forecast range by late day. In addition, the short term models also show a greater than 70% chance for humidity values in the teens and wind gusts exceeding 25 mph. All of these factors enhance confidence that Red Flag Warning criteria will be met. As a result, the Fire Watch will be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for Thursday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ Thursday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.