textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain is forecast for Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning, with amounts ranging from a few hundredths in Hays up to .5" in Coldwater and Liberal.

- Cloudy and cool weather will persist through Monday and Tuesday with only a gradual warming trend.

- Warmer temperatures are forecast for Wednesday, especially across far western Kansas.

- There is still uncertainty with rain chances for late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1052 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

An upper level storm system will continue to amplify over the southern high plains and progress across Oklahoma and Texas through Sunday. Light rain will develop Saturday afternoon and progress eastward into Sunday morning. The heaviest rain is still forecast along the Oklahoma line in closer proximity to the upper level low. Temperatures will change only a few degrees through Monday morning given the extensive cloud, with mainly upper 30s to mid 40s day and night. So although daytime highs will be chilly relative to climatology, overnight lows will be mild relative to climatology. The various ensemble suites still indicate the highest rain amounts near the Oklahoma state line (.25 to .5") and lowest totals along I-70 where only a few hundredths are expected. And the grand ensemble continues to indicate very low chances of an inch or more of rain, even along the Oklahoma line.

After this system passes to the east, there will be no strong front to scour out the cool and moist air, so expect only a gradual warmup Monday and Tuesday as winds become southerly, with highs in the 40s Sunday under extensive cloud, and mid to upper 50s for Monday and Tuesday. An upper level trough is advertised to pass to the north of Kansas Wednesday and shunt some warmer air onto the high plains by Wednesday afternoon. Therefore, some locations in far western Kansas will likely experience ample sun and readings in the 60s to near 70.

Another upper level trough is forecast to amplify over the western United States by late next week. Low level moisture will stream back into western Kansas by Thursday and Friday as winds remain southerly. There is considerable uncertainty in how fast this system will traverse the plains. A fast solution would mean little to no rain for western Kansas, with low level moisture being capped by dry mid level air. A slower solution would mean deeper moisture and chances for showers and t-storms. The grand ensemble shows very low chances ( less than 10%) for .5" or more of rain during late week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 437 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Low clouds will form across the area this morning bringing MVFR to IFR conditions to the TAF sites. Scattered showers will then develop this afternoon with even lower ceilings and lowered visibilities bringing IFR to LIFR conditions. These showers may last overnight. Winds will generally be from the southeast, gusting to over 20 knots late morning into this afternoon.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.