textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably hot temperatures again today with highs backing off a little Wednesday.

- Thunderstorm chances (30-50%) return to west central and extreme southwest Kansas late today.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

WV imagery indicates a southwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado.

Hot/dry conditions will persist through late afternoon before minimal thunderstorm chances (30-50%) return this evening as the SREF indicates a closed upper low lifting northeast across the high plains of eastern Montana, helping nudge an anchored attendant lee side trough axis across extreme eastern Colorado into west central Kansas by early evening. Prevailing southerlies will help reinforce pooled moisture ahead of the trough axis with surface dewpoints holding in the mid/upper 50s(F) to near 60F, providing sufficient instability with an axis of MUCAPE values in excess of 1500 to 2000 J/kg in vicinity of the trough axis. Despite marginal dynamic support aloft, diurnally driven thunderstorm development is expected as H5 vort maxima eject northeast out of the Southern Rockies, interacting with the aforementioned trough axis/weak frontal boundary. The best chance for rainfall will be across west central Kansas into extreme southwest Kansas as suggested by most CAMs and where the HREF shows a 20 to 40% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch by late Tuesday evening. Focus for thunderstorm chances (50-70%) shift farther southeast Wednesday with a weak frontal boundary projected to push slowly through the remainder of southwest Kansas into south central Kansas by late afternoon.

Unseasonably hot temperatures continue today as prevailing southerlies reinforce the much warmer air mass across the area with H85 temperatures ranging from the upper 20s(C) in central Kansas to a little above 30C in extreme southwest Kansas near the Colorado line. Look for highs up into the lower/mid 90s(F) behind the advancing trough axis in west central Kansas where the latest HREF indicates a better than a 90% probability of temperatures exceeding 90F but only a 50-70% probability of topping 95F. Hotter temperatures are likely in south central Kansas where HREF paints a 70-90% probability of highs nudging above 100F. The run of temperatures climbing above the century mark ends for much of the area Wednesday in wake of a weak cold front pushing farther south into the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma, dropping H85 temperatures below 25C across southwest Kansas into south central Kansas to even near 20C in central Kansas. More seasonal temperatures are likely in west central Kansas to parts of central and extreme southwest Kansas where there is only a 20-40% probability of temperatures exceeding 85F to mainly the 90s(F) farther southeast into south central Kansas.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1106 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through the period. South-southwest winds 10 to 20kt overnight will increase 15 to 25kt with gusts up to 30kt generally after 13-15Z as an approaching lee side trough axis stalls out across west central Kansas down into extreme southeast Colorado.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ031-046-065-066-079>081-089-090.