textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Below normal temperatures continue today with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s.

- Above normal temperatures return tomorrow as afternoon highs rise into the mid/upper 90s.

- Precipitation chances will be limited throughout the forecast period under the influence of strong upper level high pressure.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1145 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Midday water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal a fairly amplified pattern by late-summer standards is in place atop the CONUS, with a ~597dm ridge centered over the Desert Southwest and a trough extending from the upper Midwest/Great Lakes southward through Dixie Alley. At the surface, weak high pressure is spread out from the northern plains through the central plains, supporting light east/southeast winds across our area. Despite strong DNVA ahead of the upper ridge, models actually show temperatures will cool by 1-2 degrees at 850-mb thanks to northeasterly flow on the backside of the eastern trough. As a result, the relatively cool airmass in place across southwest KS will persist for another day with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Tonight, HREF members are nearly split 50/50 regarding thunderstorm activity as the NSSL WRF and WRF-ARW suggest an MCS will dive southward through our area while the HRRR and 3kmNAM have little to no convection. If the former high-res guidance verifies, sufficient deep-layer shear and MUCAPE will exist for an isolated severe wind gust risk, which is consistent with SPC's Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) they have laid out centered around US-283.

Daytime Friday, short range ensembles agree the upper level ridge will inch northeastward but slightly dampen, yielding a stronger westerly component to the flow across the central Rockies. In response, lee cyclogenesis will begin in east-central CO causing strong southerly winds to materialize across the central plains. This along with 2-3 degrees of warming at 850-mb should translate to a noticeable warmer afternoon with highs reaching the mid to upper 90s. Convective activity should be muted under the influence of the upstream ridge, however a stray sub-severe thunderstorm or two meandering out of eastern CO cannot be ruled out.

Saturday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles indicate the upper level ridge will continue to shuffle eastward before stalling out over the southern plains early next business week. This synoptic evolution will yield above normal temperatures as highs hover in the upper 90s to low 100s as well as limited precipitation chances. NBM does paint some low-end chance pops (25- 54%) Sunday and Monday evenings favoring our northwest/north zones, however disagreement between the ECMWF EPS and GEFS implies these are overdone.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 407 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

South to southeasterly winds will continue this evening through Friday morning before veering slightly to the southwest and increasing in speed 14 to 18 knots sustained by mid to late morning Friday. All four airports DDC, GCK, HYS, and LBL will remain dry through this TAF period, with only a slight chance of a thunderstorm perhaps approaching HYS late tonight/early Friday morning, but this chance is too low to include in the HYS TAF at this time.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.