textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorm chances (20-40%) finally return Wednesday evening.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

WV imagery indicates a weak zonal flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains while a weak upper level shortwave trough tracks eastward through the Desert Southwest.

Relatively dry conditions will continue early in the period as the SREF indicates the aforementioned upper level shortwave trough staying to our south as it pushes east through the Texas Panhandle late this afternoon. With a weak flow aloft prevailing and a lack of moisture limiting instability, rain chances will remain generally absent across the area through mid-day Wednesday. However, steepening mid-level lapse rates combined with very minimal MUCAPE values may lead to isolated shower/thunderstorm development in southeast Colorado with any storms potentially drifting up to/near the Colorado line early this evening before dissipating.

Minimal thunderstorm chances (20-40%) arrive late Wednesday as a closed upper low swings through the Dakotas into the Upper Midwest, ushering an attendant cold front southeastward into western Kansas before it's projected to stall out just shy of the Oklahoma line. Prevailing southerlies will finally draw some moisture into south central Kansas and a small portion of southwest Kansas with surface dewpoints climbing into the 40s(F), introducing modest instability. As a result, isolated thunderstorm development will be possible across portions of central Kansas into southwest Kansas in vicinity of the frontal boundary early Wednesday evening. This is supported by the latest HREF showing a 10-30% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.25 of an inch generally northeast of Dodge City by late Saturday evening. Another round of thunderstorms is forecast Thursday in vicinity of a projected stalled frontal boundary across southwest Kansas into central Kansas, though severe potential will be elevated with moisture advection pushing dewpoints up into the 50s(F) south of the boundary, significantly increasing instability.

Temperatures will be above the seasonal average tonight as prevailing southerlies reinforce a warmer air mass across the area. Considering the HREF paints a 30-50% probability of temperatures dropping below 50F in central Kansas to a 70-90% probability of slipping below 50F across much of southwest Kansas, look for lows generally in the 40s(F). Unseasonably warm temperatures are likely tomorrow as prevailing southerlies draw warmer air into the region, pushing H85 temperatures up around 15C in central Kansas to near 20C out near the Colorado line. Under ample sunshine, expect afternoon highs up into the 70s(F) to near 80F, which is supported by the NBM painting a 70-80% probability of temperatures exceeding 75F up near the I-70 corridor to better than a 90% probability of topping 75F in extreme southwest Kansas. The warming trend continues into Thursday with more widespread 80s(F) expected.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1100 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through early Wednesday. Southerly winds 15 to 25kt with gusts up to 30kt will persist through tonight into early Wednesday behind a warm front lifting north across western Kansas into Nebraska while lee side troughing redevelops in eastern Colorado.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.