textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will continue through Tuesday with afternoon temperatures in the lower 90s.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday through Wednesday. Marginally strong to severe thunderstorms are possible.

- A strong cold front will arrive Wednesday, followed by much cooler air for the rest of this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Midnight infrared satellite imagery depicted a clear sky over SW KS, and surface observations outlined a continued unseasonably warm boundary layer, with temperatures holding way above normal, mainly in the 70s. A strong low level jet was in place, with 850 mb winds near 60 mph keeping south winds elevated at the ground. South winds will remain elevated through sunrise, with temperatures struggling to fall below 70 at many locations.

Persistence will be a good forecasting tool into Monday, with the synoptic pattern observed over the weekend not changing. A strong trough over the Great Basin will maintain SWly midlevel flow over SW KS another day, with elevated to strong south to southwest winds, and unseasonably hot afternoon temperatures. Temperatures of 90-93 are expected to be common at 3 pm, about 20 degrees above normal for mid October. SW winds from the NBM were several knots too weak, and increased them with 20-30 mph winds prevailing this afternoon.

The strong closed midlevel cyclone over the Great Basin is forecast to reach the Grand Canyon by 7 pm Tuesday, as strong high pressure remains anchored over the lower Mississippi valley. SWly midlevel flow will increase to over 50 kts as a result. Associated lee cyclogenesis is expected over southeast Colorado, with a cold front bisecting SW KS by 7 pm Tuesday. A boundary intersection between this cold front and the dryline is expected somewhere in SW KS, with NAM placing the best instability/shear parameter space for supercell thunderstorms southeast of this boundary intersection, from Dodge City southeastward Tuesday evening. Many CAMs and the global models all suggest thunderstorm development in these southeast zones Tuesday evening, with NBM pops in the likely/definite category quite reasonable. With an environment supportive of rotating supercells, some storms are expected to be severe, with hail 1-2 inches in diameter, and wind gusts of 60-70 mph. If a discrete storm mode can be maintained - ahead of the cold front remaining surface-based - some tornado potential is evident. Severe weather risk is expected to be highest southeast of a Liberal-Dodge City-Larned line 3-10 pm Tuesday. More lower 90s are expected ahead of the advancing cold front Tuesday afternoon.

Increasing indications that a dramatically colder air mass will arrive rather aggressively Wednesday, with stratus, northeast winds, and afternoon temperatures restricted to the 50s the most likely outcome. NBM is still way too warm, but it is trending cooler with each update. The coolest solutions will likely verify, with NAM showing stratus and drizzle persisting all day with its classic light drizzle QPF signature. With surface cold air aggressively moving southward, this is expected to push any surface-based severe threat south of SW KS, but overrunning, stratiform showers and embedded thunder are expected north of the frontal boundary Wednesday afternoon/night.

No later than Thursday morning, much cooler air will be rushing into SW KS on strong north winds. NBM/MEX guidance continue to trend cooler with each successive run, with afternoon temperatures restricted to the 60s. Friday appears to be the coolest day, with afternoon temperatures struggling to escape the 50s even in full sunshine. Strong 1035 mb surface ridging will wedge its way into SW KS, delivering the coolest morning so far this fall season Saturday morning. Light winds will support near ideal radiational cooling sunrise Saturday, with temperatures in the 30s common. Frost/freeze headlines will likely be required Saturday morning.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 521 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period. Winds will continue to be breezy throughout the day with sustained winds at 15-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts especially in the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1249 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures are expected again Monday, in the lower 90s, lowering minimum relative humidity to 20-25% across northwest zones. Here, the risk of wildfire spread will be elevated for several hours Monday afternoon, in areas where vegetation fuels have become dormant. Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue ahead of a cold front Tuesday, before much cooler air ends the fire risk completely Wednesday through the end of the week.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.