textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Extremely quiet weather will prevail for the next several days. Highs will remain above normal with widespread mid to upper 60s.

- Lows look to generally stay above freezing. The main exception to this is Friday morning, where a light freeze may be possible.

- Precipitation chances looks unlikely. We will be under split flow aloft through Thursday, followed by upper level ridging late in the week and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1131 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

An extremely quiet weather pattern is expected to continue for the next several days. Tonight, a sfc trof axis will eventually fragment and then move east during the morning hours. As this does, expect light southwesterly winds ahead of the boundary to become light northerly in its wake. Lows tonight will be on the mild and above freezing side. Expected upper 30s across western Kansas to lower 40s across south-central Kansas.

Tuesday will continue to feature uneventful weather. A light northerly wind will continue during the day. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 60s. No major fire weather concerns are expected tomorrow, even with the above normal temperatures. Afternoon relative humidity levels and winds will just be too marginal for any major fire weather concerns. Another night of mild lows are expected for Wednesday morning, with values only bottoming out mainly in the 40s.

More tranquil weather is expected midweek. Kansas will be under split flow aloft, which favors no major synoptic systems moving through. The net result is a dry forecast and continued above normal highs and lows. Highs should peak in the mid to upper 60s with lows in the 40s Wednesday. Again, even with the warmth... no major fire weather concerns are expected with weak winds and marginal afternoon relative humidity levels.

There is going to be a sharper 850-hPa temperature gradient Thursday. Cooler air will exist across central Kansas and even farther to the NE. A wider range of highs are expected across southwest Kansas with mid 50s at Hays to mid 60s at Elkhart. Both winds and relative humidity levels looks far too marginal for significant fire weather impacts.

Looking at Friday and into the weekend... the long range models and their ensemble counterparts are indicating mid level ridging Friday and into the weekend. This would support the notion of a dry forecast and with a continue of above normal highs and lows. The GEFS and ENS are indicating for the potential in a weather pattern change in the Nov 15-19th range. There is considerable spread in the ensemble QPF members. It also seems the GEFS and more conservative with a progressive, light hitting system than compared to the ENS. Something to watch. Confidence is just too low that far out in time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 512 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail with mostly clear skies. Winds will generally be light and variable.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.