textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Much "cooler" today across the area; temperatures in the upper 80s north and upper 90s south

- Marginal severe risk west of Route 83 today; isolated storms could lead to 50-60 mph winds and hail to quarter-size

- Hotter temperatures make a return

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1221 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

After quite the hot day yesterday, we are expected to be much "cooler" across the forecast area. Max high temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s across northern counties, with temperatures gradually increasing across southern Kansas in the mid to upper 90s. While these temperatures are not cooler by the actual definition of the word, it will certainly be a noticeable difference than yesterday and previous weeks temperatures. In addition to the cooler temperatures, thunderstorms will be a possibility. Any storms are expected to remain confined to areas west of Route 83, as they track out of Colorado. With low-level lapse rates favorable and DCAPEs 1200-1500 J/kg, the main hazard would be strong winds on the order of 50-60 mph. With meager MUCAPE about 1000 J/kg, hail would likely be kept at bay, but a few 1" hailstones cannot be ruled out. Any storms into western Kansas would likely be in the evening hours, and eastern extent should be limited.

Hotter temperatures will be making a comeback to close out this week and into this weekend/early next week. Forecast highs are again likely to be around and exceeding the triple-digits mark. Latest NBM output show 100s returning across western and southern counties on Friday. Triple-digits look to become more widespread into the weekend with NBM probabilities of 100+ 50-90% chance along Route 50 and points south. Some probabilities exist farther north as well, but are lower in the 20-40% range. The oppressive heat (105-110) appear less likely this stretch, but area of south-central Kansas do have some chance (30-50%) of reaching those ranges again. Regarding any rainfall chances, some low probabilities (20-40%) are in the forecast Thursday- Friday near I-70, and then again each day Monday-Wednesday evening mostly across the western half of the CWA.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 514 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Ongoing thunderstorms will exit the Hays by 15z this morning. As the storms exit the skies will gradually clear. Gusty easterly winds early in the morning will decrease to 10 knots or less between 15z and 21z today as an area of high pressure at the surface begins to build into western Kansas. Late day and early tonight mid to high level clouds (greater than 9000ft AGL) will spread back into southwest Kansas as scattered weakening thunderstorms move towards the Colorado border. A few thunderstorms will move into extreme southwest Kansas but currently are expected to weaken/dissipate before reaching Garden City or Liberal. The chance for storms between 02z and 05z at either of these TAF sites are only 10-15% so at this time will not include any mention of thunderstorms in the 12z TAFS.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.