textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire risk this afternoon and again on Wednesday.

- A slight risk of severe thunderstorms possible this evening, mainly east of a Ashland to Stafford line.

- A cold front will usher in colder into southwest Kansas along with gusty northwest winds. Wind gusts as high as 35 to 40 mph will be possible late tonight and early Wednesday morning. Temperatures will average between 20 and 30 degrees cooler compared to temperatures Tuesday afternoon.

- Following the mid week cool down another warmup will return to southwest Kansas late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1121 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Earlier today a surface boundary/cold front as moving through southwest Kansas with gusty northwest winds developing behind it. Models today were in good agreement that this surface boundary would stall across northern Oklahoma as an upper level trough moves into western Kansas. North of this boundary...afternoon humidity values are expected to fall back into the teens as temperatures warm into the mid 70s to lower 80s south of the Arkansas River. Latest models continue to indicate afternoon wind gusts will stay below 25 mph but given the current forecast with low humidity values the fire risk level west of Highway 83 and along the Oklahoma border will be elevated or very close to elevated. There may even be a few locations west of Liberal possibly reaching the near critical category.

The fire risk concerns this afternoon will then give way to a slight chance for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms early this evening. The surface boundary that will be located across northern Oklahoma late today will be the primary focus for late day storm development. Storms that do develop along this boundary late today will move northeast into south central and possibly southwest Kansas, becoming elevated early this evening. Improving instability due to cooling temperatures aloft and enhanced lift ahead of the approaching upper trough will support that what storms that do develop...a few will be capable of producing isolated hail of 1 to 2 inches. The best chance should strong or severe thunderstorms develops will be between 6pm and 10pm.

After midnight the focus shifts from thunderstorms to gusty north winds. A cold front will move across southwest Kansas through the predawn hours, leading to a tight surface pressure gradient. Short term model guidance supports wind gusts occasionally reaching 40 mph or slightly higher. These gusty winds combined with the returning colder air will result in wind chills dropping into the 20s early Wednesday morning, primarily west and north of the Dodge City area. Low temperatures Wednesday morning will generally be in the 30s.

Winds will gradually decrease during the day Wednesday...however speeds will remain high enough to maintain a high fire risk potential. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across a large area west of Highway 283, based on forecast afternoon humidity values. Temperatures will be near seasonal averages despite afternoon temperatures on average being 20 to 30 degrees cooler than Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday night high pressure will move across western Kansas as an upper level trough exits the Plains. As the upper trough passes the upper flow will become more westerly leading to downslope warming and temperatures rebounding into the low 60s. The most significant warmup is expected on Friday as an upper level ridge briefly amplifies over the Rockies. This will induce deep southwesterly downslope flow, spreading unseasonably warm air into western Kansas. High temperatures on Friday are forecast to climb into the 70s.

Enjoy the warm air late this week. By late Saturday, a secondary northern stream upper level trough will cross the Rockies and move into the Plains. This will bring another cold front across southwest Kansas. There is a low probability (under 15%) for measurable precipitation with this front due to limited moisture return. Temperatures following the cold front will be mainly in the 50s for Sunday and Monday, returning conditions to typical mid March values.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1121 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Northwest winds will become variable late today across southwest Kansas as a surface boundary remains nearly stationary just south of the Oklahoma border. These light winds (less than 10 knots) this evening will shift to the north at and increase into the 15 to 20 knot range overnight as a strong cold front crosses southwest Kansas between 06z and 12z Wednesday. Wind gusts as high as 30 to 35 knots will be possible late tonight and early Wednesday morning. A period of VFR conditions may give way to a period (2-4hr period) of MVFR ceilings following the cold frontal passage.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1121 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Elevated to near critical fire risk is expected this afternoon west of the Liberal to Sublette line. Afternoon humidity will drop into the teens along the Oklahoma border and west of Highway 83 as temperatures climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s. These conditions, combined with a 30% to 60% chance of wind gusts greater than 20 mph west of a Sublette to Liberal line, will lead to a period of Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. Elsewhere, weaker winds will result in a lower fire risk, primarily near elevated.

Another period of elevated fire risk is possible on Wednesday. Gusty northwest winds will develop behind a cold front crossing southwest Kansas late tonight and continue through the day on Wednesday. Current short term models show a 60% or greater chance for wind gusts exceeding 25 mph across southwest Kansas. Afternoon humidity values will fall back to around 20% along and west of Highway 283.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.