textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet and dry, typical early summer weather will prevail across SW KS through this forecast period, with no impacts expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 119 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Wednesday and Thursday, as a weak midlevel trough ejects onto the southern plains, models show a very minor cooling trend, as 850 mb temperatures are trimmed 1-2C each day, and heights lower some with the weak closed low just to the southeast of SW KS. Elevated south winds will establish through the period, with gusts of 25-35 mph expected after 10am Wednesday. As such, moisture in the boundary layer will be maintained, with dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s especially by Thursday. As such, 00z NAM continues to project modest instability by Thursday afternoon, with CAPE near/over 2000 J/kg. With no triggering mechanisms obvious, convective initiation is highly unlikely, and the most likely outcome is a fair weather cumulus field each afternoon.

A warming trend remains on track Friday through Monday. All models consistently forecast the first strong midlevel anticyclone of the summer season over the New Mexico region through the weekend, with heights climbing daily over SW KS. Widespread green vegetation, standing water, and evapotranspiration will slow down the heating trend. Still, after several dry days to dry out the ground, afternoon temperatures will be well into the 90s by Monday as shown by NBM. South to southeast surface winds will maintain gulf moisture advection, with dewpoints in the 60s. As such, we will need to monitor heat indices and the need for a heat advisory early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF cycle, with VFR/SKC, occasional scattered cirrus, and light winds. After 15z today, elevated south winds are expected at all airports, gusting 25-30 kts. Winds will decrease slightly after sunset this evening.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.