textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Minimal thunderstorm chances (20-30%) Tuesday.

- Temperatures nearing the century mark Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

WV imagery indicates an upper level trough sinking southward through the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin. Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low pressure is anchored in southeast Colorado.

Much drier and warmer conditions are likely through early next week as the SREF points to upper level troughing continuing to deepen while sinking farther south across the Great Basin Sunday, setting up a southwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains. In response, a projected sharpening dryline is expected to advance eastward through southwest Kansas Sunday as lee side troughing strengthens in eastern Colorado. Although pooling moisture ahead of said dryline will provide sufficient moisture/instability, a less than robust flow aloft (jet core remaining well off to our west, streaming northeast across the Four Corners Region into the western Dakotas) combined with modest capping based on model soundings will likely limit precip chances late Sunday as suggested by the HREF/NBM. Similar conditions are forecast Monday, though an isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out near or along the dryline. Despite similar conditions yet again Tuesday, minimal thunderstorm chances (20-30%) return late in the day as medium range ensembles do show an upper level shortwave perturbation cycling through the axis of the larger scale trough early morning, then lifting northeast through the Great Basin in the afternoon. H5 vort maxima to the east are projected to lift northeast through western/central Kansas, interacting with a surface trough axis/dryline situated somewhere generally across southwest/central Kansas in conjunction with steepening mid-level lapse rates and more than sufficient instability. The latest NBM paints a 20-30% probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding 0.1 of an inch generally across eastern portions of southwest Kansas into central Kansas by late Tuesday evening.

Fairly mild temperatures are forecast tonight as prevailing southerlies draw warmer air back into western Kansas. Look for lows generally in the 70s(F) with the HREF indicating a 60-80% probability of temperatures dropping below 75F across much of southwest Kansas to a 80-90% probability of temperatures slipping below 80F in south central Kansas. Prevailing southerlies will continue to reinforce warm air advection into the area Sunday, pushing H85 temperatures up near 30C in central Kansas to near 35C in extreme southwest Kansas. With the HREF painting a widespread better than 90% probability of temperatures exceeding 95F, expect afternoon highs pushing the century mark. Similar temperatures are likely Monday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 515 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Winds will remain out of the south to south-southwest through 00Z Monday, sustained in the 15-20 kt range gusting to 25-30 kts.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.