textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Most, if not all, thunderstorms are expected to remain north of I-70 Saturday and Saturday night.

- Unseasonably hot afternoons Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

- Extremely dangerous wildfire conditions mainly west of US 283 Sunday and Monday afternoons. Strong southwest winds, very dry air and ongoing drought/fires will enhance wildfire risk.

- Dangerous, high-end severe thunderstorms are possible in the eastern zones Monday afternoon, but these may remain east of the DDC CWA.

- Dramatically cooler Tuesday, ending the severe risk and increasing humidity to help with fire fighting efforts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Midday satellite imagery depicted a clear sky over SW KS, although haze and smoke from wildfires was limiting visibility to an extent. A weak pressure gradient was in place, but southeast winds will increase with time, especially this evening, as 990 mb surface low develops near Goodland by 7 pm. Mesoanalysis shows instability mounting, but the instability is also strongly capped. Thunderstorms are expected to develop on the edge of the capping inversion, across northeast Colorado, after 4 pm. Other isolated supercells are possible in Goodland's CWA/NW KS late this afternoon, but model consensus is the strong capping inversion will hold through tonight across the DDC CWA, and lowered pops across the northern zones significantly. An intense MCS is expected to track along the KS/NE border tonight, the southern fringe of which may brush Trego/Ellis/I-70, and this will be monitored for any convective impacts. All other locations are expected to remain dry through tonight. A strong low level jet is expected tonight, with winds at 2k ft AGL near 60 mph. As such, south winds will increase after sunset, and easily gust over 30 mph through tonight. Mixing will strongly deter radiational cooling, with many locations remaining in the 60s through sunrise (record warm low temperatures possible).

Strong midlevel trough will dig southward into the Great Basin Sunday, centered in Nevada/Utah by Sunday evening. This is still a fair distance west of SW KS, which will work against the strength of the forcing for ascent at peak heating Sunday. This is important for convective initiation on the plains, because very warm convective inhibition will remain. Believe the cap will hold, and removed all pops through 7 pm Sunday, even along the dryline in the eastern zones. Despite high instability and intense heat along the dryline, do not feel convective parcels will achieve their LFCs eastern zones Sunday. Much more concerning is extremely critical wildfire conditions spreading into SW KS Sunday afternoon, with southwest winds gusting 40-50 mph. Afternoon temperatures of 95-100 will force relative humidity to fall to 5-10% across a wide area, creating a volatile wildfire environment in any areas in which greenup has been delayed by the drought. Wind grids follow the 90%ile of the NBM, and areas of blowing dust are expected.

Closed 552 dm midlevel cyclone over Utah 7 am Monday will weaken into a shortwave, and eject negatively tilted into northeast Colorado by 7 pm Monday. Unfortunately, for a very dry SW KS, this synoptic pattern will dryslot SW KS once again. Unseasonably hot afternoon temperatures will continue ahead of the incoming cold front, and NBM is among the hottest guidance, with upper 90s common. As such, strong southwest winds and low humidity will create wildfire risk once again - especially adjacent to Oklahoma where wildfires remain in progress. Model consensus places the intense cold front roughly near US 50 at 7 pm Monday. Cold fronts of this caliber often surpass the fastest guidance, and this will be critical in determining how much severe weather occurs in the eastern zones. Clearly a robust triple point will exist somewhere over the eastern zones peak heating Monday, with an established dryline-cold front intersection. Any supercells that can establish in this environment (along and east of US 183) will have shear and instability supportive of very large hail and/or tornadoes. Eventually the surging cold front will force a severe squall line across central Kansas Monday evening. North winds Monday night will be intense, stronger than all guidance, as 1025 mb surface high pressure builds south into NW KS.

Tuesday will be dramatically cooler, with afternoon temperatures only in the 60s and lower 70s, with gradually diminishing northeast winds. Pending increasing cloud cover, sunrise temperatures Wednesday may fall well down into the 40s. This cooler than normal regime will continue for Wednesday and Thursday, with afternoon temperatures only in the 60s, and morning lows in the 40s. There may be an opportunity for some desperately needed rain midweek next week, in response to broad troughing over the Rockies. This would be stratiform rain showers falling in stable air, as opposed to thunderstorms one would expect in late May.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 512 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Throughout this evening and into the overnight hours, largely expect to see VFR conditions. However, a developing area of thunderstorms is beginning in eastern CO and far western KS that will need to be monitored through the evening. The terminal with the greatest chance at seeing impact from these storms will be HYS, however, think probabilities that happen in quite low (less than 20%). It is something that will continue to monitor and utilize AMDs if needed as convection progresses.

Into Sunday, main weather will be the strong southwesterly winds. Winds are expected to 25-35 knots with gusts 40-45 knots. Some areas of blowing dust will be possible Sunday afternoon as well with the strong winds, but visibilities are expected to stay 5 miles or more.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 103 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Fire Weather Watch was upgraded to a Red Flag Warning across much of the forecast area except the far eastern eastern three counties on Sunday. Sunday has the potential to be a dangerous fire weather event! Southwesterly winds of 25-35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph will lead to high-end critical to extreme fire weather conditions.

To our fire weather partners, every effort should be taken to knock down the ongoing fires today to prevent the spread and reignition of them before tomorrow afternoon. Conditions will quickly deteriorate from late Sunday morning and into the afternoon.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Sunday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>080-084>089.