textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will begin to warm today after the brief cooldown, with highs in the mid/upper 90s.

- Another jump in afternoon temperatures tomorrow as highs peak in the 100-105 range.

- Precipitation chances will be limited throughout the forecast period under the influence of strong upper level high pressure.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1153 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis at midday reveal a strong upper level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest with a longwave trough downstream extending from eastern Canada southward towards Dixie Alley. At the surface, a broad lee cyclone from eastern CO through eastern MT will continue to deepen today as the upper ridge flattens out and the flow across the central plains acquires a stronger westerly component. As a result, southerly winds will intensify over the central plains, becoming sustained in the 15- 25 mph range gusting to 35 mph. This along with 850-mb temperatures warming by 3-5 degrees C under the influence of DNVA will engender a noticeable uptick in temperatures this afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Later this evening/overnight, thunderstorms are not expected across southwest KS as strong subsidence suppresses convective activity, however a stray sub-severe thunderstorm or two emerging from eastern CO and/or northwest KS and impacting our northwest/north zones cannot be ruled out.

Daytime Saturday, short range ensembles agree the upper level ridge will begin to inch eastward, reaching the southern plains by 00Z Sunday. The surface lee trough will follow while expanding, with its center shifting onto the northern plains. In response, winds across southwest KS will veer to southwesterly and be sustained in the 15-25 mph range gusting to 35 mph once again. These modestly downsloping winds will contribute to another jump in afternoon temperatures as highs peak in the 100-105 range. While no Heat Advisory is forthcoming, precautions should still be taken to mitigate outdoor exposure.

Sunday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles agree the upper level ridge will grow to encompass nearly the entire southern CONUS, save for far southern CA and adjacent areas. Under persistent synoptic-scale subsidence, southwest KS appears to be on the heels of a prolonged hot and dry stretch as afternoon highs linger in the 100-105 range with scant precipitation chances.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 515 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through early Saturday. Southerly winds 10 to 20kt with gusts up to 25kt are expected to persist through the period as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in extreme eastern Colorado.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.