textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- High temperatures in the 90s ahead of two cold fronts this week: Tuesday and Thursday/Friday

- Dry cold fronts this week due to the fast-moving nature of storm systems, unfavorable for bringing gulf moisture far enough northwest into southwest Kansas

- Record or near record highs Thursday along with increased fire weather risk (critical or near-critical)

DISCUSSION

Issued at 105 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

The synoptic scale pattern across the mid-section of the CONUS was characterized by northwest flow thanks to a building upper level high across southern California and Arizona and a large scale trough across the Great Lakes region. This pattern, more reminiscent of a summer upper level pattern (absent the deep monsoonal moisture), will prevail today and Tuesday, resulting in a continued dry scenario for western Kansas with temperatures on the increase. Monday will be the transition day toward very warm temperatures Tuesday when latest NBM has highs well into the lower to mid 90s (along and south of the Arkansas River) ahead of the next cold front. The cold front timing on Tuesday will result in a more difficult temperature forecast north of the Arkansas River, but the air mass behind the front will not be all that much cooler given the progressive nature of the shortwave trough passing across the Northern Plains and Midwest.

Looking ahead to Thursday and Friday, hot temperatures are likely Thursday and possibly Friday. Confidence is high on the Thursday hot temperatures with solid model/ensemble agreement (and thus NBM) with NBM 25-75th percentile spread of 4 to 6 degrees (i.e. 94 to 99F at DDC for a high Thursday). The same cannot be said for Friday with much larger 25-75th spread of 9 to 11 degrees, largely due to differences in model timing of the next cold front Friday. A slower front on Friday would likely result in highs closer to NBM 75th or even 90th percentile (75th percentile high of 100F at DDC Friday). Given the fairly progressive nature of the large scale pattern through next weekend, each of these frontal passages are likely to be dry for western Kansas given unfavorable moisture transport ahead of each front (south/southwest winds). Thus, whatever small POPs we have in the forecast will be confined to the far eastern portion of the DDC CWA.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 552 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through late evening. Light southwesterly winds through mid-morning will increase 10 to 20kt with gusts up to 25kt generally after 14-16Z as a developing lee side trough of low pressure strengthens in eastern Colorado. Winds are then expected to subside somewhat while becoming more southerly this evening with a loss of daytime heating.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.