textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances (70-90%) increase tonight into Thursday.

- Fairly seasonal temperatures expected through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

WV imagery indicates a southwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains behind weak ridging transitioning east through the Central Plains. Near the surface, a weak lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado.

Widespread shower/thunderstorm chances (70-90%) remain in the forecast tonight as the SREF continues to show ridging aloft pushing slowly east through the Central Plains, allowing a slowly intensifying southwest flow aloft across the Southern Rockies to shift gradually into the high plains of eastern Colorado, tapping into monsoonal moisture in the Desert Southwest. Meanwhile, Prevailing southeast upsloping will further reinforce low level moisture across the region with surface dewpoints up into the lower 60s(F), providing minimal instability. Showers with embedded thunderstorms are likely to develop across northeast New Mexico into southeast Colorado this evening as an upper level shortwave lifts northeast through the Southern Rockies into the high plains of eastern Colorado, then spread northeast into southwest Kansas overnight. The best chance for rainfall through daybreak Thursday morning still remains to be across extreme southwest Kansas as indicated by CAMs and the latest HREF indicating a widespread 70-90% probability of 24-hr QPF exceeding 0.5 of an inch across much of southwest Kansas by late afternoon Thursday. Additional rounds of rain (60-80% chance) can be expected Thursday night into Friday with the focus for rainfall shifting east across the remainder of southwest Kansas into Central Kansas, again with a 70-90% probability of 24-hr QPF topping 0.5 of an inch by late Friday morning.

Above normal temperatures are forecast tonight as prevailing southeasterlies further draw slightly warmer air into the area, not to mention holding surface dewpoints in the upper 50s(F) to near 60F. With this, look for widespread lows in the 60s(F) with the HREF suggesting a 60-80% probability of temperatures slipping below 65F in west central/central Kansas into portions of southwest Kansas with less than a 10% probability of dropping below 65F near and along the Oklahoma line. Fairly seasonal temperatures are likely Thursday with scattered showers about and mostly cloudy to overcast skies expected throughout the day. Considering the latest HREF paints a 70-90% probability of temperatures topping 70F, expect afternoon highs generally in the 70s(F) for much of the area with the lower 80s(F) still possible in south central Kansas. Similar temperatures can be expected Friday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 530 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Variable flight conditions are forecast for all TAF sites through the TAF period. All sites are forecast to have intermittent periods of rain showers through the TAF period. Due to the light and scattered nature, it is almost impossible to pinpoint exact start stop times so it should be expected that showers may occur at any point through the TAF period. The TAFs try to articulate three distinct period: the first being on and off showers the next 4-5 hours before the main wave of rain occurs from around 6-17Z. After 17Z, rain is still possible but the chances/confidence are low enough to be excluded in the TAF. With the showers, lowered flight conditions are expected with lowered visibilities and ceilings. This may fluctuate with the on and off again showers.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.