textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably hot, near record high temperatures expected Thursday afternoon.

- Isolated high-based showers and thunderstorms with virga and strong outflow winds Thursday afternoon.

- Hot afternoon temperatures in the 90s will continue Friday through Sunday.

- Any threat of severe thunderstorms is expected to remain east of US 283 Saturday through Monday. Wildfire risk will continue west of US 283, west of the dryline.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Midday satellite imagery depicted a continued clear sky over SW KS and the surrounding region. The very quiet subsident regime continued, courtesy of the strong midlevel ridge axis arriving on the plains. Southeast winds will become increasingly elevated through this afternoon, with temperatures well into the 80s.

A modest low level jet is forecast tonight, which will keep southeast to south winds elevated and gusty through sunrise. This along with modest moisture advection will deter radiational cooling, and many locations will struggle to get below 60 degrees sunrise Thursday. Warm morning temperatures will act as an efficient springboard to near record heat Thursday afternoon, with upper 90s expected to be common. SWly downslope and an additional +5C at 850 mb will put record highs in jeopardy, including the DDC May 14th record of 97 set most recently in 1941.

Models have been consistent with a shortwave rippling eastward over SW KS Thursday, as the Texas ridge is flattened. Forcing for ascent will improve, but thermodynamics will remain poor and hostile to organized convection. Moisture will be very limited, with dewpoints only in the 40s. This combined with hot temperatures in the 90s will create strong inverted-V profiles, very high cloud bases, and most of any rainfall being lost to virga. Increased pops to near 20% where this development appears most likely Thursday afternoon, but most locations will clearly stay dry. SPC maintains marginal 5% wind probability, and will monitor for dry microbursts and outflows/blowing dust. Some dry lightning strikes also seem plausible, adding to the wildfire risk.

Friday, continued sunny, hot and dry, although afternoon temperatures will be shaved down about 5 degrees, courtesy of a light northeast wind. Another shortwave in the flow will likely initiate thunderstorms near the southeast counties at peak heating, then subsequently move into Wichita's CWA in the evening. Marginally severe outflow winds will be the primary risk. Again, most locations will remain dry.

The synoptic pattern Saturday through Monday will generally become more favorable for severe thunderstorms on the plains, with midlevel SWly flow maintaining the typical May dryline. Model consensus continues to place the dryline near the eastern border counties, toward central Kansas, through much of this period. As such, NBM pops strongly favor eastern zones. The risks for large hail and damaging winds from supercells or bowing segments will exist each of these days, but only near and east of the dryline, expected to remain east of US 283. For the western half of SW KS, unseasonably hot temperatures in the 90s will continue each afternoon with southwest winds, low relative humidity, fire danger and continued drought. Sunday currently appears to be the most potent in both regards, with the strongest cyclogenesis, high end severe possible central Kansas, and strong southwest winds and critical/extreme wildfire danger west.

Eventually a strong cold front is expected Monday night, which will end both the severe weather and wildfire threats. Cooler 70s are projected Tuesday afternoon.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1002 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR/SKC will continue through this TAF period, with limited amounts of scattered cirrus. Southeast winds will gust 22-25 kts at all airports through 00z Thu. Southeast winds will remain elevated and gusty through tonight, with a low level jet keeping the boundary layer mixed. Southeast wind gusts to near 25 kts will continue overnight, and included low level wind shear in all TAFS after 06z Thu. Elevated south to southwest winds are expected after 15z Thu.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Unseasonably hot temperatures in the 90s to near 100 Thursday afternoon will reduce minimum relative humidity to 10-15%. Along the Oklahoma border, elevated southwest winds of 20-30 mph are expected. As such, a red flag warning was issued for Morton, over to Comanche counties for Thursday. Additionally, isolated dry thunderstorm development is expected during the late afternoon. Any storms would produce mainly virga and strong outflow winds. With much of any rain evaporating, dry lightning strikes are possible Thursday afternoon/evening.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ084>089.