textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Below normal temperatures once again today, with highs in the 60s.

- Dry, warming trend is expected Saturday through Monday, with highs rising from the 70s on Saturday to the mid 80s on Monday.

- An approaching wave will begin to impact our area around Tue/Wed, bringing cooler temperatures and precipitation chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Early morning water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal a strong cut-off low over southeast Ontario, Canada, with a ridge beginning to build upstream atop the Pacific Northwest. In additional, a vorticity maximum was noted moving southward over the northern plains. Daytime Friday, short range guidance agrees ascent ahead of the shortwave impulse along with weak northeasterly upslope surface flow will support mostly cloudy skies across southwest KS and maybe some light rain showers near the KS/CO border. The end result will be yet another day of below normal temperatures, with afternoon highs in the 60s. Friday night, as the upper level shortwave begins to pull away and DNVA overspreads the area, skies will clear and combine with light winds to support strong radiational cooling and Saturday morning lows dipping into the 30s.

On Saturday, both the GFS and ENS Control indicate upper level ridging west of the Rockies will become the main driver of sensible weather for the central plains, yielding an absolutely beautiful early May day with clear skies, light winds, and afternoon temperatures in the low 70s. Saturday night, southerly winds will return to southwest KS as surface ridging moves into the southern plains, which will help keep overnight lows a touch warmer in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Sunday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles agree the upper level ridge out west will begin to dampen as a strong low moves into the southwestern CONUS. This wave will be very slow moving given its cut-off nature, allowing the warming trend to continue Sunday and Monday with afternoon highs in the mid 80s. Tuesday and Wednesday, the cut-off low will draw close enough to bring cooler temperatures and precipitation chances to our area. Although, any precipitation we get currently appears unlikely to have an appreciable impact on our drought conditions as ensemble mean QPF is less than 0.5" for all areas.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1135 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Winds will remain light and variable across southwest KS through 06Z Saturday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.