textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Record or near record warmth Today. Warm and dry conditions continue on Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

- Slight chance for severe thunderstorms possible late Tuesday/Tuesday evening south and east of Dodge City.

- Gusty winds and cooler temperatures mid week. Temperatures will be 25 to 30 degrees cooler on Wednesday.

- Late week warming trend returns to southwest Kansas with highs in the 70s possible by Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1107 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Earlier this morning a westerly flow aloft was present across the Plains north of a 500mb deformation zone that stretched from the Four Corners into Oklahoma. A separate 500mb low remained nearly stationary near Baja California. At the surface a trough of low pressure extended across the Central Plains from southwest Nebraska into central Kansas with light west winds occurring earlier in the day across western Kansas. Unseasonably warm air was present at the 850mb level with temperatures reaching 16 to 18C as of 7 AM this Monday morning.

Model agreement today remains high (>70%) through Tuesday, which suggests a continued warm pattern with even a slight additional 850mb temperature warming possible over southwest Kansas on Tuesday as the 500mb deformation zone lifts northward from just south of the Oklahoma border towards the Nebraska border. As a result it appears that widespread high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s will once again be possible Tuesday afternoon.

In addition to these very warm temperatures on Tuesday...there will be a chance for late day/evening strong to severe thunderstorms. A developing surface low near the Kansas/Colorado border is forecast to track across western Kansas during the day as a weak upper level wave precedes the main upper low that will be approaching west Texas. As the surface low moves east, a surface boundary is expected to move into south central Kansas and northwest Oklahoma during the afternoon. The initial southward and eastward track of this boundary during the day will limit thunderstorm development earlier in the day. This however will change late Tuesday and Tuesday night given that this boundary will move back north into southern Kansas by late day as the main upper low moves into western Texas. Also as the surface boundary lifts back north into southern Kansas late day we will be monitoring a dryline as it retrogrades back into south central Kansas. These boundaries returning to south central Kansas late Tuesday afternoon and early evening will create a brief window for strong to severer thunderstorms with the best chance for storms is generally east southeast of Dodge City between 5 PM and 10 PM CDT. Forecast instability and shear indicate that the main hazards from these storms to produce large hail, possibly up to two inches in diameter, and strong gusty winds. The current risk for tornadoes is low (2-4%) but the potential will still exist, especially near the Pratt and Medicine Lodge areas (if the models verify). This is due to the anticipated location of the dryline/surface boundary intersection and increasing low level shear as an 850mb jet strengthens to 40-50 knots.

Cooler temperatures will return mid week as a cold front sweeps through southwest Kansas late Tuesday night as the northern branch upper level trough crossing the Plains. Mid week high temperatures are forecast to fall 25 to 30 degrees compared to earlier in the week but temperatures will still remain near or slightly below seasonal averages for the first half of March (highs in the 50s). Gusty north winds at 25 to 35 mph following the frontal passage early Wednesday also will make it feel even cooler, with apparent temperatures ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s late morning and early afternoon.

Despite the Wednesday cooling, a rapid rebound is expected. By Friday, ridging reestablishes over the Rockies, initiating a secondary warming trend with highs returning to the 70s. However, ensemble consensus suggests another northern stream trough will cross the Plains over the weekend, bringing the next shot of cooler air. This will return temperatures to near- seasonal levels in the 50s for the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 512 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through early Tuesday afternoon. Light southerly winds are expected to turn more west-southwesterly late tonight as surface low pressure in eastern Colorado shifts eastward into western Kansas.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.