textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rain likely late Friday through early Saturday.

- Rainfall amounts still unclear given the uncertainty of exact track of a southern branch upper level trough/low. Currently there is a 40-60% chance for rainfall totals to be greater than 1/2 inch south and east of Dodge City.

- Fire weather risk will be on the increase early next week as unseasonably warm temperatures return to southwest Kansas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1104 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

The upper air analysis this morning had a fairly zonal 500mb flow across the Central United States, though we are beginning to see the influence of a low amplitude ridge axis moving into the Rockies. At the surface, an area of high pressure centered over Eastern Kansas/Nebraska earlier this morning is currently slowly moving east. This has kept our winds light earlier this morning. Further west, an upper level low was located off the California coast, which will be our main item of interest as it crosses the southwest United States heading into the weekend.

For today, temperatures will be near or slightly above seasonal normals for southwest Kansas as the surface high slides southeast. High temperatures will warm well into the 50s, though a few locations may approach 60 degrees in our far southwestern counties near the Oklahoma border.

On Thursday, the synoptic setup begins to shift as the aforementioned California upper low moves inland across the Great Basin. In response to this approaching system, lee side troughing will develop over eastern Colorado. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the High Plains, bringing an increase in southerly winds. Temperatures will trend upward as ensembles continue to advertise unseasonably warm 850mb temperatures spreading into western Kansas during the day. As the warm air spreads into western Kansas, improving isentropic lift and warm air advection late day and overnight will bring an increase in clouds, mainly after sunset Thursday evening.

Greater forecast uncertainty exists on Friday and Saturday as the upper level low over the Great Basin crosses New Mexico on Friday and then moves into the Plains by Saturday afternoon. The timing of this system Friday/Saturday remains unchanged, but there is some uncertainty about just how far north this system will track once it moves out into the Southern Plains given the timing of a northern branch upper level trough exiting the Rockies and moving out into the Plains late Friday. Despite this uncertainty on track, all models agree that moisture and lift (isentropic lift/WAA) will improve across southwest Kansas Friday night into early Saturday as this upper trough/low moves out into the Southern Plains, and this lift will occur under increasing upper level divergence as southerly low level winds (30-40 knots at 850mb) draw Gulf moisture northward into south central Kansas (PWATs of 0.6-0.8 inches). PWATs less than 0.5 inches are expected north and west of the Dodge City area. Given all this it still appears widespread precipitation remains likely (>70%) across southwest Kansas...however the lower Precipitable Water (PWAT) values and the majority of the ensemble clusters (60-70%) for the southern upper low/trough taking a more southern track suggest rainfall amounts may end up being less than previously forecast. This morning the latest NBM/WPC guidance also appears to reflect this downward trend in rainfall amounts, especially west and north of Dodge City. The latest NBM chance for rainfall totals to exceed 1/2 inch is now 40-60% east and south of Dodge City, with the highest probabilities near Pratt and Medicine Lodge. For the rest of southwest Kansas, the chance for greater than 1/2 inch of rain has decreased to 20-40%. The probability of at least 0.1 inches of precipitation remains high, greater than 60% across the entire area.

The rain will taper off Saturday night as the upper level low/trough moves east. On Sunday, this upper level system will move east out of the southern plains and into the Mississippi Valley allowing an upper level ridge to begin to build into the central United States. This ridge amplification is driven by our next upper level trough exiting the eastern Pacific and moving into the western United States. This should deliver another period of well above normal temperatures to western Kansas (highs in the upper 60s to 70s) on Monday and Tuesday as 850 mb temperatures from the ensemble clusters climb to 10-15C. Also early next week, we will also be monitoring the increasing fire weather risk across southwest Kansas given the increasing winds that will accompany this next warm and dry period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 541 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Good aviation weather will continue through this TAF period. Southerly winds at the onset of this TAF period will decrease down to below 10 knots this evening. A rather subtle wind shift to the north-northeast will occur around late morning/midday Thursday, and this will lead to a rather minor bump up in wind speed, but otherwise no aviation impacts are expected with widespread VFR flight category continuing.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.