textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- A hot and dry pattern continues

- A Heat Advisory is in effect Sunday from 1-9 PM CDT. More heat headlines will be needed this week

- Ensembles have sporadic thunderstorm chances this week at 10-20%; uncertainty remains high regarding them

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Aloft, the synoptic pattern remains relatively unchanged as primarily zonal flow excluding a deep low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest that continues to deepen. Nearer to the surface, a low-level low is in place near the Colorado/Nebraska border. Any convection due to the low is forecast to stay well north of the CWA. Previous model runs had some weak convection reaching SW Kansas, but the trends have led towards near zero chances and the forecast reflects that.

The pattern that Saturday started of stronger south winds and very warm temperatures will continue. Sunday will be even hotter than Saturdays with highs for nearly all of SW Kansas forecast around 100- 105 degrees. Strong south/southwest winds at 20-25 mph will persist and bring more warm air advection. This continues to tread the line between a moderate and major heat risk. Precautions should be taken including cooling and hydration breaks; this is especially true for vulnerable communities. As a result of the high heat and apparent temperatures of 105-108 in the eastern counties, Stafford Pratt and Barber counties are in a Heat Advisory for tomorrow. This goes from 1-9 PM CDT.

Despite Sunday being the warmest day, the week ahead will also be hot albeit a few degrees cooler. Another Heat Advisory may be needed if the highs continue to look very hot. More strong south winds will keep highs near 100 degrees on Monday. Tuesday's highs will be a few degrees cooler towards the mid-90s; Wednesday's highs are forecast to be similar to Tuesday. Despite Tuesday and Wednesday being a little cooler and farther from heat advisory criteria, the continued stretch of above normal heat will still pose a heat risk threat. Sunday and Monday will be very dry out west with relative humidity minimums around 10-15%. With the strong south winds mentioned, fire weather risk will be non-zero. However, the multiple rounds of precipitation the last few days quell most of the risk.

Long ranged ensembles have brief period of 10-20% chances for precipitation midweek, especially Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. Model trends have been inconsistent so it will need to be monitored as the weekend ends. Next Friday and Saturday will warm back up closer to where Sunday was at with highs around 100-105. Monitor for future heat related headlines.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 543 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

No major changes in aviation weather are expected from initial conditions early this morning. There will be slight variations in the southerly winds (more southwesterly in the afternoon with 30+ knot gusts) with winds more southerly at night. Winds will remain fairly strong through the period thanks to a continued tight pressure gradient in place. Given the hot air mass now in place, flight category will remain VFR through the period.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ066-081-090.