textproduct: Dodge City

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

05z upper air and surface analysis shows a large trough over the eastern CONUS with a building ridge over the intermountain west followed by another trough off the Pacific coast. A lee side surface low is located in the Colorado Rockies with a stationary surface front along the I-70 corridor.

The main theme for this week will be warm temperatures, wind, and the continuation of fire threats. Starting with today with southwest flow aloft and a shortwave moving through the Rockies we should see the surface low deepen through the day and the pressure gradient tightening during the morning hours. Winds will increase out of the southwest sustained at 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. By mid afternoon we should see the winds switch back to the south which will marginally increase the surface moisture along and east of highway 283. This should keep much of this area out of red flag criteria (however the fire threat will be elevated due to winds) with the relative humidity values falling under 15% mainly along and west of highway 83. Tuesday the fire threat should be less as the surface low won't be as strong which will lead to weaker winds and gusts. Also with more southerly winds much of southwest Kansas should have higher humidity values due to dewpoints reaching into the 40s and 50s.

For the mid week the winds return on Wednesday as an approaching trough moves into the intermountain west and with the tightening pressure gradient the winds out of the south should pick up to 20-30 mph with gusts 40+ mph. Fire danger should be concentrated west of a dryline that will develop and the driest of the air should be along and west of highway 83. Late in the afternoon as the upper level shortwave moves into western Kansas we could see some isolated storms develop along the dryline mainly between the K-25 and US-283 corridors. With the lack of good surface moisture the storms should be isolated in nature with not much QPF. The storms could also pose an dry iso thunder fire risk with lightening. By Thursday the drier air and northwesterly winds will shift the storm risk into central and eastern Kansas leaving much of our area dry.

Long range ensembles show a large longwave trough in the northern plains during the weekend and then a second trough moving through the central and southern plains early next week. Both the ENS and GEFS have QPF in the forecast for southwest Kansas starting this weekend with better opportunities for rain early next week. This is contingent on the present track we see which could give western Kansas its first decent chance at moisture in quite some time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1151 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR flight category for all terminals during the time period. Winds should stay breezy for the duration of the next 24 hours with the stronger winds occurring after 15Z and lasting through 03Z. Expect sustained winds at 15-20 kts with gusts over 30 kts at times especially for DDC, GCK, and LBL terminals.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon mainly for areas along and west of highway 83 as relative humidity values will fall to 12-15% and winds will be out of the south 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ today to 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ061>063-074-075-084.