textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Some drizzle this afternoon; fog potential tonight into Saturday morning

- Warm temperatures continue this weekend and into next week

- Low precipitation chances late next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 338 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Latest radar and analysis show some sprinkles/drizzle have developed this afternoon across parts of the forecast area in response to a subtle shortwave trough ejecting into the Plains. Greatest forcing for more organized showers will be situated off toward our south in the Panhandles as the trough continues to eject eastward through the afternoon and into this evening. As a result, POPs are low and only a mention of patchy drizzle is in the forecast for today. Into tonight and Saturday morning, focus turns to fog potential, some freezing fog as well, for portions of southwest and central Kansas. A fairly strong signal does exist for even dense fog in spots, with the HREF highlighting widespread 30-50% chance visibility less than a half-mile, mainly north of Route 50 and 54 corridors. This risk will need to be monitored for the potential for dense fog headlines into this evening. The best overlap of fog and freezing temperatures will be along I-70, thus freezing fog is being mentioned there. In addition to any reduced visibilities, some slick spots could develop in areas of freezing fog.

Well-above normal temperatures will be the next main story into this weekend and next week. 850mb temperatures climb above 10C starting Saturday, and warming 15-20C into Sunday/Monday in response to ridging and perhaps some downsloping enhancement. This will lead to surface temperatures to reach the 60s to low 70s this weekend and much of next week. For reference, these temperatures are around as much as 25F above normal as normals for this time of year are in the middle 40s. Temperatures have the chance to near record highs on Sunday with DDCs record sitting at 73F and GCK at 77F.

Precipitation chances are meager throughout the forecast period, but we are monitoring a trough into the latter half of next week. LREF (ENS, GEFS, and GEPS) grand ensemble shows a rather progressive positively tilted trough ejecting into the middle of next week. This evolution of trough typically does not favor much, if any, chances of precipitation for southwest Kansas, but until we get closer and details become more clear, NBM has up to 20% POPs for eastern zones Thursday at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1113 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Most of southwest Kansas is seeing VFR conditions, but ceilings continue to remain low across central Kansas especially at HYS. Clouds will continue to persist across this area throughout much of the day, keeping ceilings lowered compared to the other TAF sites. Into tonight, some BR and FG may develop, especially across central Kansas and low ceilings and visibility may be reduced. Expecting clearing into tomorrow afternoon.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.