textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Drier and cooler weather today will turn more humid by Friday. - Thunderstorms are possible Friday night and severe t-storms are possible late Saturday.

- There are varying chances for t-storms through mid to late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1259 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Drier and cooler weather is predicted for today as weak surface high pressure spreads across the plains. However, with zonal mid level flow across the plains, it won't take long for surface troughing to develop in the lee of the Rockies. This will lead to a return to south to southeast winds and moisture advection. Any storms Friday will likely move in from the west of Kansas during the late evening since a focus for t-storms will probably be absent over Kansas. These will arrive in a weakened state and will probably not be severe. An upper level disturbance is forecast to approach the central high plains Saturday night. Low level moisture will be abundant by this time. A mid level baroclinic zone is expected to be across far northern Kansas. With an approaching upper level jet and a departing jet, organized thunderstorm clusters are likely to the north of Kansas Saturday night, and possibly as far south as I-70. Farther south over southwest Kansas any t-storms will be more isolated to scattered; but given favorable deep layer shear and strong instability, these would likely be severe with very large hail and damaging winds. Outflow from organized t-storms to the north will push an effective front through southwest Kansas Sunday morning. Upslope flow in the wake of the front should push moisture upslope onto the western high plains. Although t-storms are not expected Sunday due to a cooler, albeit moist air mass, storms may move in from the west Sunday night in weakened state.

An upper level trough will amplify across the northern high plains by Monday, with northwest to west-northwest mid to high level flow over western Kansas. There will continue to be a moisture connection to the tropics given the flow across the Rockies at reasonably low latitudes (which forces lee troughing farther south). T-storm chances Monday depend on the extent of air mass recovery in the wake of Sunday's effective front. Any storms will likely need to move into Kansas in the evening from the western high plains; and these could be severe. The southern edge of this upper level trough will approach by Tuesday. With plenty of moisture in place, along with moderate mid to high level winds, severe t-storms are again possible, with very large hail and damaging winds. Given the upper level support and mid level thermal gradient associated with the trough, an organized storm cluster with locally heavy rain is possible. Yet another upper level disturbance is expected to arrive by Thursday with additional chances for strong to severe t-storms.

Although the strongest signal for widespread heavy rain per ensemble means is just north of southwest Kansas over the next week, there are several opportunities for rain in the form of isolated to scattered t-storms. Taken as a whole over the next week, the grand ensemble shows very high probabilities (70-95%) of .5" of rain or greater, with the very highest chances in central Kansas. And there are moderate chances 40-70% of 1" or more of rain. Although not very location will experience rain on a given day, there are high chances at a given location of beneficial rain over the next week.

The pattern depicted above is not unusual for mid to late June. Although we are past the peak of tornado season, mesoscale events can lead to isolated high-end severe weather (including significant tornadoes). But the main concerns this time of year are large hail and damaging winds. Typically the severe weather season slows substantially by the first week of July, although we can still get robust hail and wind events from time to time through the summer, and even a significant tornado in very rare circumstances. And rainfall this time of year tends to be highly variable and localized on a day to day basis, with intense rains in some spots and sunshine in others.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 506 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms will be possible across south central Kansas through mid-day, remaining mainly east of KDDC. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through late evening. East-northeast winds around 10 to 20kt with gusts up to 25kt through late morning are expected to turn more southeasterly generally after 18-20Z as surface high pressure slides southeast out of the Northern High Plains into the Central Plains.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.