textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Southwest Kansas is expected to remain dry through Friday.

- A gradual warming trend is expected through this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

WV imagery indicates a compact upper level shortwave trough lifting northeast through the high plains of southeast Colorado/southwest Kansas, responsible for a few ongoing isolated areas of sprinkles/light rain. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado.

Relatively dry conditions are likely early in the period despite the SREF indicating another series of H5 vort maxima associated with a weak perturbation lifting northeast out of the Desert Southwest into western Kansas late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. Minimal moisture return will elevate surface dewpoints somewhat, but do little to bring about much in the way of instability. Still, a few pockets of sprinkles/light rain cannot be ruled out toward daybreak Tuesday as the aforementioned shortwave trough interacts with a weak lee side trough axis in vicinity of the Colorado line. Otherwise, expect a drier pattern to persist through mid-week as ridging aloft begins to develop and amplify across the Western High Plains.

Seasonal temperatures are forecast today as prevailing southerlies help reinforce a milder air mass across the area, supporting H85 temperatures holding around 10C in central Kansas to near 15C in extreme southwest Kansas. With the latest HREF painting a widespread 80-90% probability of temperatures exceeding 65F to a 70-90% probability of temperatures nudging above 70F near and along the Oklahoma line in south central Kansas and much of southwest Kansas, look for afternoon highs generally up into the upper 60s(F) to the lower 70s(F). More widespread 70s(F) are expected Tuesday as ridging aloft begins to develop and amplify across the Western High Plains.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 440 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF period, with VFR/SKC, varying amounts of mid/high clouds, and light south to southeast winds prevailing.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.