textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend to start the week

- Mid week cool down with small chances of POP (15-20%) in north central Kansas Wednesday morning

- Mild temperatures return towards the end of the workweek

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

20Z synopsis shows a large ridge in the western CONUS moving eastward into the central plains with the location of the large trough now firmly over the eastern part of the country. Northwest flow aloft with a modest jet streak is starting to stream in some mid and high level clouds into northwest Kansas. At the surface a lee side trough and a tightening pressure gradient is bringing in southwest winds helping to warm temperatures into the 50s and 60s.

Generally a quiet weather should be expected this week with some modest activity from Tuesday into Wednesday. The overall weather pattern has the ridge in the west sliding to the east by Monday morning and then dampening as a shortwave trough approaches from the northwest. With winds out of the southwest through the day this should keep modest warm air advection in the region but with increasing clouds due to the approaching shortwave and developing cold front we should be a few degrees cooler with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The first cold front will move through late Monday afternoon through the evening and during the day on Tuesday we should have slightly cooler temperatures with highs in the 50s. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning a stronger long wave trough in the mid levels and modest moisture at the surface has the medium range models producing some modest precipitation between midnight and sunrise Wednesday morning. With temperatures around freezing we could see a mix of rain and snow with accumulations amounts expected to be light (NBM probability of greater than 0.1 inch of snow is below 10% and probability of greater than 0.01 inch of liquid is around 10-20% along the I-70 corridor). Basically it will be a quick moving northwest flow system that could produce some isolated echos on radar. The wave will also bring in a reinforcing shot of colder air and Wednesday should have the coldest temperatures for the week with highs around 50.

Long term ensemble trends in the synoptic pattern show a huge ridge moving into the central plains for the end of the work week into the weekend. This gives us high confidence of the return or warmer temperatures and dry conditions.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 435 PM CST Sun Feb 1 2026

Quiet weather will lead to VFR conditions for all sites through the TAF period. Clear skies with light and variable winds will last the majority of the period. Near the end of the period, around 20Z, cloud cover with high ceilings is expected to move in as winds strengthen out of the north.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.