textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical Fire Weather Wednesday

- Temperatures cool late week; warm again into next week

- Light snow possible Friday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1057 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Another day of critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop Wednesday afternoon across much of southwest Kansas. A strong overlap of relative humidity of less than 15% and surface wind gusts 25 mph or greater will reside across much of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon. HREF has 40-90% chance probabilities of this overlap from along and west of Route 183. This combination will continue at least critical fire weather concerns, leading to rapid fire spread to any ongoing fires or any new potential fires.

Cold front passes north to south across southwest Kansas Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon, knocking temperatures back significantly. High temperatures will primarily be in the 40s and low 50s Thursday/Friday afternoon. Despite winds increasing with the passage of the cold front, fire weather conditions will be mitigated due to higher levels of humidity and cooler temperatures. Cooler temperatures will hang around through the weekend, before another ridge builds across the Plains into early next week increasing temperatures.

A potent, but rather flat shortwave will emerge off the Rockies Friday, developing weak surface low across southeast Colorado into southwest Kansas. This low will bring with it an increase in precipitation chances. Any precipitation is expected to be light given the lack of overall moisture and lacking lift with the system. 01z NBM had 30-60% POPs Friday into Friday evening, with snow showers being the main precipitation type. However, given the current expected marginal temperatures and light nature to the precipitation, accumulations will be limited with LREF only maxing out at 35% chance for a half-inch or more.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1109 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Gusty winds will start to diminish tonight, and veer easterly through tonight into early tomorrow morning. By tomorrow afternoon expect wind gusts to increase yet again with gusts up to 30 mph, then diminish again when the sun goes down. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ to 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ Wednesday for KSZ043>045-061>064-074>080-084>089.