textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Near to below freezing temperatures are forecast for tonight and a freeze warning is in effect.

- A slow warming trend is expected starting Saturday, with highs reaching the lower 80s for mid to late next week.

- There is a lot of uncertainty with rain chances and amounts for next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1208 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

The freeze watch was upgraded to a warning for tonight for all of central and western Kansas. South winds will return to far western Kansas toward morning; but light winds are expected for south central Kansas through sunrise. Therefore, temperatures may get as cold in the river bottoms near Dodge City, Cimarron and Jetmore as the traditionally colder spots in west central Kansas. The long term average first freeze date is 5 to 7 days earlier in the low lying areas than the hilltops. Thus, expect temperatures to be several degrees colder in these areas. Temperatures may stay several degrees warmer on the hill at the Dodge City airport where the official low temperature for Dodge City is taken.

Broad southwesterly flow at mid and upper levels will return by this weekend and into next week, allowing for surface troughing in the lee of the Rockies, south winds and warmer weather. Expect highs in the 70s by Monday and lower 80s by Wednesday.

A large upper level trough will form across the southwestern United States late next week; and this system will slowly progress eastward. However, this far west in the plains we generally need a slow moving upper level low that that has a closed circulation instead of a faster moving and open trough. In the latter scenario, the warm and moist southerly winds generally stay in eastern Kansas and points east; and this is why the winters are climatologically so dry here. The median precipitation for the 15-October to 28-February time frame (4.5 months) is only 3.1" at Dodge City. Additionally, another upper level trough is forecast to amplify across the eastern USA, forcing north winds and drier air into the tropics. So despite a return to south winds in western Kansas, north winds will persist at lower latitudes so that the return flow won't be as moist as one might expect. There may be enough instability for scattered showers and t-storms as the upper trough and associated cold front move east by Friday or Saturday; but widespread heavier rains are unlikely. This is especially true given the absence of a low level cold dome across the plains in advance of the upper trough that might promote moist ascent. That said, the arrival of this trough is still at least a week away; and there is plenty of time for a switch to a more robust solution. The grand ensemble shows even lower chances (10%) for .5" or greater of rain across southwest Kansas than it showed yesterday (15-25%).

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Strong north winds at 20 kts will diminish this evening as surface high pressure builds across western Kansas. A surface trough will form in the lee of the Rockies by the end of the period, resulting in a return to south to southwest winds at 10-15 kts. VFR conditions are forecast to persist.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Saturday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.