textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal Severe Weather Risk Tonight. Primary hazards will be strong gusty winds, locally heavy rainfall and isolated hail.

- Chance for ongoing accumulating rainfall Wednesday. Locally heavy rainfall possible. There is a marginal risk of excessive Rainfall on Wednesday across all of southwest Kansas.

- Persistent unsettled pattern with almost daily rain chances possible late week and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1123 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Earlier this morning a surface boundary extended from southeast Colorado into the Panhandle of Texas with a moist upslope flow present north of this boundary (across southwest Kansas). Also north of this boundary 850-700mb moisture and lift was occurring which resulted in morning convection occurring across southwest Kansas. As of 11am this precipitation was ending but cloudy skies continued across all of southwest Kansas. Cloud cover today will limit the warmup potential and this will not only keep temperatures cooler than previously expected but may also limit the severe weather risk. Still having said this models condition to indicate afternoon clearing occurring over parts southwest Kansas and southeast Colorado and latest satellite supports this solution. This clearing will be occurring ahead of our next upper level disturbance which will be approaching the area from the west/southwest late day.

Short term models today remain in decent agreement with a brief break in precipitation today with some breaks of sun developing at times during the afternoon. This will give way to the potential for some afternoon thunderstorms to redevelop given weak/no cap in place and moisture and lift occurring along and north of a surface boundary that is forecast to be located near the Oklahoma panhandle/Kansas border. Further north another area of thunderstorms may also develop late day/evening as cooler 500mb temperatures begin to spread into southwest Kansas. Given the ongoing 850-700mb forcing/frontogenesis that will be in place along with moisture being present. This area of convection given weaker shear is not expected to be severe but gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall can not be ruled out.

The risk for severe storms late today and tonight now appears to be shifting more southward toward the Oklahoma border. Thunderstorms developing over the Colorado terrain will move east into southwest Kansas, but confidence in the northern extent of this convection is low due to the persistent cloud cover and that rainfall lingered across the area longer earlier today. A surface low in southeast Colorado will maintain moist easterly flow with dewpoints in the low 50s. Despite modest vertical wind shear of 20-30 knots, cooling 500mb temperatures and localized heating will boost MLCAPE to 1000-1500 J/kg. This environment supports isolated severe wind gusts up to 60 mph and marginal hail, primarily across far western Kansas where the Storm Prediction Center maintains a Marginal Risk.

On Wednesday low level moisture transport (IVT/850-700mb flow) will persist as southerly winds continue to draw moisture from the Gulf northward. This deep moisture, coupled with weak mid level steering flow supports slow moving or training thunderstorms during the day and overnight. The Weather Prediction Center maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall, indicating a minimum 5% probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance. Slow storm motion and high precipitable water values will result in very intense local rain rates, making low lying roads, small streams, and urban locations highly vulnerable to localized flash flooding. While no watches are currently in effect, a Flood Watch for flash flooding may be required if subsequent model runs continue to support this heavy rainfall trend.

Late week and over the weekend period an unsettled pattern will persist as a series of weak upper level shortwave troughs move across the Central Plains. These disturbances will interact with high boundary layer moisture and afternoon instability which will result in scattered diurnal convection across south central and portions of southwest Kansas almost each day. While weak deep layer shear may still limit organized severe potential, the primary concern shifts to widespread cumulative rainfall. Ensemble clusters indicate a high probability (>60%) for totals exceeding 1.00 inch east of Highway 283 through 00Z Monday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 532 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR is expected to continue through this TAF period, with varying amounts of midlevel cloud. Radar and satellite imagery at 2230z depicted thunderstorms over the northwest Texas panhandle, moving very slowly northeast. Models suggest some of this activity will move toward the southwest airports, most likely LBL, 03-06z Wed. Rain showers and limited thunder are possible at all airports through 12z Wed, but confidence on exact placement/coverage is low. Light southeast winds will prevail through this TAF period. After 18z Wed, south to southeast winds will gust 20-25 kts at all airports.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.