textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Much warmer temperatures this afternoon with highs reaching the mid 80s to low 90s.

- Slightly warmer temperatures during Memorial Day, with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

- Strong upper level wave will bring daily precipitation chances Tuesday through the end of the week, with Wednesday and Thursday carrying the best chance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis at midday indicates southwest KS is near the interface of weak shortwave ridging building over the southern plains and stronger zonal flow atop the northern and central plains. At the surface, a broad lee cyclone spread out from central Saskatchewan, Canada, southward through eastern NM is resulting in southwesterly winds across southwest KS. With the building shortwave ridge and downsloping winds, afternoon temperatures today will increase dramatically compared to yesterday, with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s. 12Z HREF is also suggesting afternoon thunderstorms may develop around 20-21Z along a weak surface trough that will be near our far northwest zones. While deep-layer wind shear is forecast to be weak, steep mid-level lapse rates may engender a marginal severe hail and wind gust risk with the strongest cells as they drift slowly east- southeast. That said, nearly negligible convergence along the boundary and no upper support casts doubt convection will initiate. Any thunderstorms that do form will decay rapidly as the boundary layer stabilizes after sunset, and the rest of the evening and overnight period will be quiet with lows dropping into the 50s to low 60s.

Daytime Monday, short range ensembles agree the upper level pattern will amplify somewhat as the shortwave ridge above the southern plains continues to build downstream of a strong trough approaching the Pacific Northwest. Under persistent subsidence and southerly winds, afternoon highs throughout our CWA will tick up a few degrees into the upper 80s to mid 90s. Another round of afternoon thunderstorms is possible favoring our western zones, however most HREF members keep all activity confined to eastern CO.

Tuesday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles agree the strong upper trough will dig southeast into the Intermountain West by Wednesday night, and move little through the end of the work week. The end product of this synoptic pattern for our area will be above normal temperatures and near daily precipitation chances, with ensembles suggesting the best chance existing Wednesday and Thursday as NBM probability of QPF greater than or equal to 0.1" in the 30- 50% range for much of southwest KS.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Southerly winds will follow their typical diurnal trend, staying elevated in the 15-20 kt range gusting to 25-30 kts during the afternoon, weakening to light and variable overnight, then increasing once again by mid-morning tomorrow. Additionally, weak thunderstorms may impact GCK/HYS this evening, however confidence in convective coverage was insufficient to include in the TAFs.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.