textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild temperatures the next few days primarily in the 40-50s.

- A major arctic air outbreak continues to be a concern for our southwest Kansas region beginning Friday.

- Minimum wind chills in the core of the outbreak likely to be -15 to -20 degrees (F) with one or two mornings (Saturday and/or Sunday) seeing actual air temperature lows around or below zero (F).

- Widespread, prolonged light snow is likely to accompany the arctic air from Friday into Saturday with plowable snow increasingly likely for much of the region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

As the very deep trough that was centered over Canada is exiting northeastward, the majority of the CONUS is entering a more zonal flow regime. Some upper-level ridging is developing over the west coast with little notable systems dominating the synoptic pattern. Over the next couple days this is favorable for quiet and seasonable weather to continue. Highs today are forecast to be in the 50s across SW Kansas and remain dry. Overnight, a weak boundary is expected to move across the area shifting winds. Wednesday and Thursday highs are more of the same, expected to be in the 40/50s. The forecast focus is nearly entirely the system expected late week. Both impactful temperatures and snowfall may present challenges and winter impacts.

With the system, extreme amounts of CAA is expected to reach far into SW Kansas starting on Friday. The advection will be aided by cloud cover to overwhelm diurnal processes. Daytime highs Friday are expected to struggle to reach above 20 degrees with only the warmest areas achieving that mark. Into Friday night/Saturday morning, temperatures will be cold. All of SW Kansas has a >50% chance to see below 0 lows by ensembles. Winds are not expected to be too strong, at around 10-15 mph, but wind chills are still a serious concern. Currently the wind chill forecasted minimum is around -15 degrees. Models were way too warm a few days ago with the system and now are beginning to appear representative. If trends continue, there certainly is the potential for wind chills to drop lower towards -20 or even -25 degrees in the coldest outcomes. Presently, -15 to -20 degree wind chills is a realistic window still being a few days out. Saturday night/Sunday morning will see similar temperatures with lows reaching towards -5 degrees. Winds are forecast to be lighter to off-set the lows, but wind chills of -15 are still possible. Sunday will see highs quickly recover after the very cold morning. Then the rest of the focus with the system is the snow.

Forecasting the snow amounts presents quite a difficult challenge due to the continued significant uncertainty. Firstly, nearly every ensemble member has maximum snowfall totals along an east-west pathing. However, outside of the general axis angle, there is vast disagreement. Some have the heaviest bands riding just north of the KS/OK border. This certainly would be most favorable in SW Kansas getting the heaviest snow. Conversely, if the system is pushed farther south (which can be quite common on these Arctic setups), SW Kansas may only see a brief snow period with the max down in Texas. Some members have the heaviest snow as far east as Arkansas, leaving far western Kansas with only scraps. Another huge determiner in potential amounts is the duration of snowfall. Obviously a longer duration is favorable for more snow, but a large divide of timings are present. Some solutions have periods of heavy snow only lasting 6 hours compared to others that last for 24 hours. It is apparent that this is a considerable variation and speaks to the remaining temporal uncertainty regarding the system at large. Presently a snow ratio ballpark of 18-20 is a good estimate although that is not set in stone. Because of the range of paths and regardless of amounts, it is expected that the highest amounts SW Kansas receives will be near the KS/OK border particularly east and south of Dodge City. Especially when factoring in that they are likely to see snow over a longer period of time regardless of a shorter vs longer event. All in all, there is enough variation in potential outcomes and uncertainties that pegging forecasted amounts is foolish. Purely as a depiction range some probabilities may be insightful. Nearly every ensemble has all of SW Kansas at an 80% chance or higher to see 0.5". It appears reasonable that the widespread minimum outcome is greater than this (with it in mind that it is not certain and localized areas may see varied amounts). Nearly every ensemble (except for the NBM which is exceedingly bullish) has around a 10-30% for the heaviest snowfall regions to see over 6". As noted previously in the snowiest outcomes, 6" could easily be exceeded with favorable path and timing windows. Additionally, over the past 48 hours, trends have gotten heavier with snowfall totals. There is plenty of time for things to change dramatically, but the overview is that snow accumulation is very likely (>90% via ensembles) with the potential for over 6" in the highest outcomes with current expected snowfall situated between the two. Again winds will not be too strong, but with the light snow it may not take much to create blowing snow that lowers visibilities and drifts that achieve very localized high snow depths.

Beyond the event, dry weather is expected to return with a slow warm up into next week. Highs on Monday are forecast in the 30s and Tuesday in the 40s. The 40s are a good starting point for high temperatures through the rest of next week beyond the forecast period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1116 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

A fast-moving cold front was pushing south across western Kansas at the onset of this TAF period. Strong winds 20 to 25 knots sustained, gusting to 35 knots at times, will only last for around an hour and a half or so with winds gradually decreasing after about 09Z most areas. By daybreak, winds will quickly fall below 10 knots as a surface high center moves quickly southeast across southwest Kansas. Winds will remain light the rest of the day with the exception of HYS, where some stronger westerly winds will develop around midday. A dry atmosphere and large scale subsidence will lead to continued widespread VFR flight category across the region.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.