textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- The heatwave will continue through Wednesday, with intense heat expected each afternoon. Afternoon temperatures of 100 to 110 will remain common. The risk of heat related illness and dehydration will continue each afternoon.

- A pattern change is expected the second half of this week, with temperatures returning close to August normals by this weekend.

UPDATE

Issued at 221 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Afternoon temperatures continue to well exceed NBM guidance, and updated to increase highs this afternoon and again Tuesday. Air temperatures of 105-108 will be common both afternoons. Dewpoints will remain in the 40s and 50s during the peak heating hours, with a heat index less than the air temperature, especially western zones Tuesday. East of US 283, heat indices of 105-108 support yet another heat advisory Tuesday afternoon, which matches with WFO Norman/Wichita heat headlines.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

WV imagery indicates a west-northwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of a flattening ridge axis situated across the Four Corners Region. Near the surface, an area of low pressure remains anchored in southeast Colorado.

Relatively dry conditions are likely for much of the area early in the period as the SREF shows an upper level high continuing to dominate the Four Corners Region through late Tuesday before finally dislodging eastward into the Central Plains mid-week. However, a similar set up from yesterday still exists with isolated thunderstorms likely developing across the high plains of eastern Colorado late afternoon as yet another upper level shortwave ejects out of the northern Colorado Rockies. Sufficient mid-level moisture/instability present combined with steepening mid-level lapse rates will set the stage for thunderstorm development as ejecting H5 vort maxima interact with a trough axis/stalled boundary in northeast Colorado. A few stray storms drifting into west central and extreme southwest Kansas cannot be ruled out later this evening as suggested by some CAMs. After a mainly dry Tuesday, very minimal thunderstorm chances (20%) return to west central/extreme southwest Kansas late Wednesday as an upper level shortwave trough climbs northeast across the high plains of eastern Colorado on the backside of a ridge axis departing through the Central Plains.

Another warm night is expected tonight as prevailing southerlies continue to reinforce a warmer air mass across southwest/central Kansas. With the HREF showing a widespread 70-90% probability of temperatures dropping below 80F, look for lows mainly down into the 70s(F). Well above normal temperatures are likely Tuesday and Wednesday with ridging aloft transitioning slowly east through the region and southerlies prevailing across southwest/central Kansas, supporting H85 temperatures a little above 30C in central Kansas to near 35C near the Colorado line. Expect afternoon highs up around to a little above 100F both days with the HREF painting a widespread 70- 90% probability of temperatures exceeding 100F.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 438 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Expect VFR/SKC to continue through this TAF period, with occasional cirrus. Strong south to southwest winds gusting near 30 kts at 2130z Mon will back southerly after sunset, and diminish somewhat. Light SW winds will prevail after 06z Tue through sunrise. After 15z Tue, elevated southwest winds will resume once again at all airports, gusting 25-30 kts.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ030-031-045- 046-064>066-078>081-088>090.