textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry with a strong warming trend through Thursday.

- Unseasonably hot Thursday with record or near record afternoon temperatures in the upper 90s to 100. Strong south to southwest winds will create a risk of wildfire spread western zones Thursday afternoon.

- Severe thunderstorms are possible eastern zones (central Kansas) Saturday and Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

A very quiet weather regime was in place at midday, with infrared satellite imagery revealing zero clouds across, or even near, SW KS. High pressure surface ridge axis was now southeast of the SW KS, allowing SWly return flow to begin. Temperatures will respond aggressively, about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday, well into the 80s.

Much milder tonight, with elevated south winds keeping most locations in the lower 50s through sunrise Tuesday.

All models show further warming Tuesday, but exactly how much warmer is up for some debate. Strong westerly component downslope will send temperatures soaring in the morning, but a weak dry cold front will end the downslope contributions with a northeast wind shift in the afternoon. Very little cold advection is forecast with this wind shift through the day, so still expecting upper 80s north ranging to lower 90s south. Prefrontal compression will likely push areas adjacent to Oklahoma such as the Red Hills well into the 90s, before the northeast wind shift arrives.

Quiet weather continues Wednesday, as a strong midlevel ridge axis over the Rockies phases east onto the plains. Afternoon temperatures in the 80s, increasing southeast winds, very few clouds.

A strong shortwave over Montana 7 am Thursday is forecast to reach North Dakota Thursday evening. This process will dampen the ridge axis significantly, and force much stronger leeside troughing and much stronger south winds. Gulf moisture still appears limited, with dewpoints still in the 40s and 50s, but all global models and machine learning guidance suggest at least isolated convective initiation near the diffuse dryline at peak heating Thursday afternoon. NBM pops are very limited, and the combination of capping and limited instability will work against convection coverage and intensity. Main headline Thursday will be record or near record heat, with afternoon temperatures in the 95-98 range. The record high at DDC for May 14th is 97, set in 1899 and 1941. Wildfire risk will increase, with fire weather headlines expected west of US 283.

Most locations in SW KS will remain dry through Friday. The ongoing severe to extreme drought will continue to intensify and expand. Hot windy afternoons such as Thursday will only magnify this process. We are entering the climatological wettest time of year for SW KS (May and June), and to see dry stretches, such as that forecasted into mid May, is concerning regarding drought management concerns.

Quasi-zonal or southwest midlevel flow is forecast through this weekend, which is expected to maintain the typical spring dryline in Kansas, likely central Kansas, both days. All models suggest thunderstorms developing near this dryline Saturday and Sunday, and NBM pops necessarily favor the eastern zones. Some severe potential is evident on these days (reference SPC Day 6 outlook).

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Good flying weather is expected through this TAF period, with a continuation of VFR/SKC and relatively light winds. South to southwest winds will gust 22-25 kts at all airports through sunset this evening. South winds will remain elevated tonight averaging 12-15 kts. VFR/SKC will continue through Tuesday. A weak dry cold front passage is expected Tuesday, with elevated southwest winds early Tuesday shifting to elevated northeast winds Tuesday afternoon.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.