textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather along with seasonably pleasant temperatures is forecast through Monday.

- Warmer weather will return by Tuesday and persist through at least Saturday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

- There is uncertainty on the timing of the next cold front sometime between Sunday and Tuesday.

- Rain chances are near 0% through next Saturday; and next Sunday will likely be dry as well.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

A reinforcing cool front is passing this morning, with winds returning to the northeast at 10-12 mph for today. This air mass is forecast to persist through Monday, with high temperatures near seasonal averages in the mid to upper 70s. Winds are predicted to return from the south on Monday; and this will be a transition day to warmer weather. The only changes within the Tuesday to Saturday time frame will be the strength of the persistent south winds. Given a weak pressure gradient, winds will only average 10-15 mph during the day and 5 to 10 mph or less at night. Winds will increase from the south at 15-25 mph by Saturday as the mid to upper level flow becomes light southwesterly, encouraging surface troughing across the central and northern high plains. The various ensemble means indicate 850mb temperatures steady at about 20C at Dodge City from Tuesday through Saturday, suggesting at least mid 80s for highs, with upper 80s certainly possible in a few spots. However, given a little more in the way of downslope flow by Sunday, highs in the 85 to 90 degree range look more likely, with 90th percentile 850mb temperatures around 22-23C. But this is assuming that we don't have a cold frontal passage before Sunday afternoon. The ensemble means suggest a cooldown by Monday or Tuesday; but some of the ensemble members show the front passing Sunday. Bottom line is that there is a high degree of certainty that warm and dry weather will persist through Saturday; but there is uncertainty thereafter.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

A weak cold front will pass across the TAF sites, with winds becoming north to northeasterly at 8-10 kts early in the period. Winds will gradually veer to the southeast later in the period but remain light as surface high pressure moves off to the east. VFR conditions are forecast with clear skies.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.