textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Today will be cooler with highs near 80 north and 90s south.

- There are chances for t-storms (20-40%) across western Kansas tonight.

- Very hot weather will return for the Saturday through Monday period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1259 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Low clouds have covered much of southwest Kansas this morning in the wake of a cold front. Elevated t-storms formed north of Dodge City and Garden City along a mid level baroclinic zone as a shortwave trough passes across the central plains. This precipitation will be out southwest Kansas by 3-4 am. Cooler weather is forecast for today, with low clouds gradually burning off with daytime heating. Expect highs near 80 along I-70, with lower to mid 90s along the KS/OK state line.

By tonight the aforementioned cold front will lift back northward as a warm front into southwest Kansas. Moistening at low and mid levels may result in elevated instability and thunderstorm development. Rain amounts are very uncertain, with some model guidance showing more coverage than others. The current forecast has 20-40% storm chances and this seems reasonable.

West northwesterly mid level flow is forecast to persist on Thursday as another shortwave trough traverses the northern plains. Of course, given some mid level level wind component across the Rockies, surface troughing is expected to develop on the high plains, with a nearly stationary front persisting over southwest Kansas. An isolated late afternoon t-storm or two can't be ruled out in this pattern; and any storms could develop into a larger cluster during the evening and overnight. Any early evening storms could be severe given the moderate surface based CAPE immediately on the cool side of the front and strongly veering wind profile. However, there is considerable uncertainty among the various model guidance suites about how widespread overnight rains may be. The Grand Ensemble indicates very low probabilities (10-30%) of .25" or more of rain for Thursday night and Friday morning. But of course, amounts would be much higher in any localized t-storms.

A front will linger across southwest Kansas even into Friday. However, mid level (700mb) temperatures are expected to warm to around 15C; so it will take full heating just to get one or two isolated late day t-storms in the absence of upper level support. But given the proximity of the front, small storm chances (5-15% at any given location) are still warranted.

The upper level ridge is forecast to amplify across the high plains by Saturday, with the low level frontal zone retreating well north of I-70. As is typical in summer on the high plains, the lower levels will dry out as the boundary layer deepens and temperatures heat back up, leading to deep inverted-v type soundings and negligible instability. Thus, Saturday will be a dry and hot day, with readings 100+. However, given the dry air, heat indices will be at or less than the actual temperatures. Hot and dry conditions are forecast through Monday, with afternoon highs from 100-105 and heat indices from 98 to 105.

The various ensemble means differ somewhat with the amplitude and location of the upper level ridge by mid to late next week, along with the frontal location. A stronger ridge would lead to continued very hot and dry weather while a weaker ridge would bring moisture southward into Kansas, along with small t-storm chances and slightly cooler temperatures.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 503 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

MVFR/IFR cigs in vicinity of all TAF sites early this morning are expected to begin improving to VFR generally after 14-16Z as prevailing low level stratus lifts/scatters out south to north through this afternoon. North-northeast winds around 10 to 20kt are forecast to persist through much of the period as surface high pressure drifts eastward across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest while a stalled frontal boundary remains situated just to our south.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.