textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Multiple hydro products currently in effect with lingering benign convection tonight

- Storm chances Friday still hold uncertainty, but a few more strong to severe thunderstorms are possible especially in far western Kansas

- An abrupt pattern change is expected Saturday through Monday, with dry weather, much hotter afternoons near 100 degrees, and strong south winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1204 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

The upper-level synoptic pattern continues to beguile the active pattern below staying relatively unchanged with a low pressure dominates the upper-CONUS and a high pressure system resides along the Texas/Mexico border. A surface low in the northwest panhandles and an associated frontal boundary has generated numerous severe convection in panhandles stretching into Colorado. Earlier in the evening some weak convection initiated in far SW Kansas; one of which was able to produce severe hail briefly. The weak lingering storms have transitioned to a hydro threat with multiple hydro products currently in effect including flood warnings in Pratt and the northeast counties along with a flash flood warning in Stafford. Monitor the situation for chances if pertinent. Models/ensembles hint at some weak storms moving in from SE Colorado and entering into far SW Kansas, but this has trended significantly downward over the last few runs. Whether the area receives anything is in doubt, but if it materializes it is expected to be benign.

Friday marks the last day of the relatively cooler and active period of weather. Storms chances Friday is forecast to begin around 8 PM with storms entering Kansas from Colorado. Models still disagree tremendously like the NAMNST for example that has almost zero convection. If the storms do initiate and maintain its strength when reaching Kansas, the storms will be capable of marginal wind and hail. Modeled soundings depict the environment as very marginal at best. The erosion of Friday morning's cloud cover will need to be monitored for the recovery of the atmosphere.

Saturday is forecast to be significantly warmer and kick off a hot stretch of weather with highs continuously in the 90s and approaching the triple digit mark. Ensembles give nearly all of SW Kansas a >50% to reach triple digits at some point the next few days with Sunday seemingly like the warmest day. Some areas in far SW Kansas is forecast to reach all the way up to a high of 105 degrees. These warm highs will last through the forecast period and deep into next week. Along with the change in hotter temperatures, it will be much windier with primarily a south/southwest wind at 20-30 mph. Long-ranged ensembles hint at some precipitation chances Monday/Tuesday but at such low chances (<20%) it would be wise to wait for a more definitive signal before making declarative statements. Otherwise quiet weather is expected during the pattern. Sunday will be very dry out rest with relative humidity minimums pushing towards the single digits, but the large amount of recent precipitation is expected to quell much of the fire weather risk despite the stronger winds. That said, general fire weather precautions are advised.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Lingering convection is expected to miss out on all sites for the rest of the evening. LBL may need to monitor a storm coming out of Colorado in the first hour or two of the period, but models have trended down significantly. Regardless, low ceilings is forecast for the first half of the period dropping flight conditions down to LIFR. Ensembles keep fog out of the forecast area, but patchy areas may drop visibilities down to 4-5SM. By around 18Z, skies will clear and winds will shift to out of the southeast.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ early this morning for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.