textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong winds Tuesday.

- Critical fire weather conditions Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1201 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

WV imagery indicates ridging aloft transitioning slowly east through the Colorado Rockies. Near the surface, lee side troughing is slowly strengthening in eastern Colorado.

Prevailing dry conditions early in the period will persist through mid-week as the aforementioned ridging shifts east through the Western High Plains tonight, and on into the Central Plains Monday, all while south-southwesterly downsloping enhances a much drier air mass across the high plains of western Kansas.

There is increasing confidence for a relatively strong wind event Tuesday as the SREF continues to show an upper level shortwave trough lifting east-northeast through the Great Basin Monday night and farther up into the Central Rockies early in the day Tuesday. Lee side cyclogenesis is projected to initiate across the Northern High Plains in response, then deepen further as the low kicks out into the Dakotas. In turn, this will result in a tightening pressure gradient across western Kansas with the SREF now pointing to a swath of H85 winds in excess of 40-45kt spreading east across southwest Kansas during the day. As winds begin to mix down with max daytime heating, strong wind gusts upward of 50 to 60 mph can be expected as supported by the NBM painting a widespread 50-70% probability of wind gusts exceeding 50 mph across much of southwest Kansas by mid/late afternoon. There is a 10-30% probability of exceeding 55 mph closer to the Colorado line. A High Wind Watch remains in effect for Tuesday.

Well above normal temperatures are forecast again tonight with prevailing south-southwesterlies supporting a milder air mass across southwest/central Kansas. With the HREF indicating only a 20-40% probability of temperatures dropping below 40F in extreme southwest Kansas to a 60-80% probability of temperatures slipping below 50F in south central Kansas, expect lows generally in the 40s(F) with the upper 30s(F) out near the Colorado line. An ongoing warming trend continues into Monday with prevailing south-southwesterlies enhancing warm air advection into western Kansas with H85 temperatures up near 15C in central Kansas to the upper teens(C) in extreme southwest Kansas. Expect afternoon highs well up into the mid/upper 70s(F) across southwest Kansas into south central Kansas where the HREF indicates a 70-90% probability of temperatures exceeding 70F to highs nearing 70F in vicinity of the I-70 corridor where there is only a 10-20% probability of temperatures topping 70F. Similar highs are likely Tuesday as downsloping southwesterlies persist. May see afternoon highs topping 80F in some locations.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1130 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through early Monday. Light south-southwesterly winds will increase 10 to 20kt with gusts up to 25kt generally after 19-21Z as lee side troughing continues to strengthen in eastern Colorado.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1215 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Strong southwest winds with potential gusts up to 50 to 60 mph combined with a downslope enhanced dry air mass lowering relative humidity down to 15 percent or less will produce critical fire weather conditions across all of southwest Kansas Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday evening. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088. Fire Weather Watch Tuesday afternoon for KSZ031-046-065-066- 079>081-089-090. High Wind Watch Tuesday afternoon for KSZ043-061>063-074>076- 084>086.