textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight chance for severe thunderstorms today across southwest Kansas. Main hazards through sunset will be wind gusts of 70 mph or higher and hail 2 inches or larger. After sunset the hail threat will decrease but strong damaging and locally heavy rainfall will continue to accompany these storms.

- Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms will continue Tuesday and Wednesday, mainly west of highway 283. Heavy rainfall, hail and strong gusty winds will be the main hazards both day.

- Heavy rainfall potential during the first half of the work week may result in localized urban and small stream flooding risks.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Moist southeasterly upslope flow persists across western Kansas today. Short term models forecast improving low level forcing along a surface boundary that will extended from northeast Colorado into south central Kansas during the afternoon. Increasing 0-1 km frontogenesis and an axis of late day instability along/near this boundary will support afternoon thunderstorm development as an upper level trough approaches. Severe weather is possible, with the highest confidence of this occurring after 4 PM MDT/5 PM CDT over northeast Colorado and west central Kansas. Further east isolated strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out but may struggle given the warm temperatures aloft. The risk for severe weather will increase after 7pm this evening across all of southwest Kansas as what thunderstorms that do develop near the Colorado border move east southeast along the moist/instability axis that will extend into south central Kansas. Primary hazards through this evening include damaging wind gusts to 60 mph and large 2 inch hail. After sunset it appears that the hail risk will diminish and the main hazards will transition to strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

These afternoon thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage as they move east southeast across southwest Kansas overnight. Based on the forecast location of the mid level baroclinic zone and moisture/instability axis it currently appears the most favorable area for the severe storm potential will be highest extend near and north of a line extending Garden City and Syracuse to Dodge City to Pratt/Medicine Lodge. Again the main hazards tonight will be strong gusty winds +70 mph and heavy rainfall. Currently, there is a 40% chance these storms will be capable of producing rainfall amounts greater than 0.5 inch but locally higher amounts will be likely.

On Tuesday any lingering convection east of Highway 283 will end by noon. The surface boundary will be pushed further south, closer to the Oklahoma border, due to overnight convection and ongoing moisture upslope flow persisting north of this boundary. Gulf moisture transport will also be improving across western Kansas on Tuesday, given by increasing southerly low level flow developing west of a surface to 500 mb high moving toward the Ohio Valley. While confidence in the exact location of our surface boundary is low at this time, this frontal boundary will be the main focus area for scattered afternoon thunderstorms as an upper level disturbance approaches from the southwest. Currently it appears the CAMS are clustering this boundary between Liberal and Garden City late day. Despite marginal shear (weaker than today), a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible given the mid level instability and low-level forcing. Main hazards include hail up to quarter size and wind gusts of 60 mph. Heavy rainfall may become a significant issue given PWAT values exceeding 1.25 inches, which is well above seasonal climatological means.

On Wednesday, similar conditions will persist across southwest Kansas as moisture continues to spread into the area and a surface boundary will be situated across portions of the area ahead of a more significant upper level trough. Shear remains marginal, though moderate instability is still expected. Slower storm motion is anticipated due to mean 700-500 mb winds decreasing to less than 20 knots. This environment continues to support marginal severe weather, but the heavy rainfall and possible isolated flooding issues may be increasing in some areas given slow storm motion and high precipitation efficiency. Repeated cell training over identical corridors introduces localized urban and small stream flooding risks.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1131 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR conditions will prevail early this afternoon with isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms possible. After 21z today convection will begin to increase in coverage near and west of the Garden City area. Tonight ceilings will thicken and lower overnight as scattered thunderstorms increases in coverage across southwest Kansas. Storms are currently expected to affect the Garden City area through 03Z Tuesday, then cross the Dodge City and Hays areas between 03Z and 09Z Tuesday. These storms will be capable of producing strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall, resulting in periods of lower visibility as they pass. Prior to the storms, gusty southeast winds are forecast at 15 to 20 knots.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.