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KEY MESSAGES

- A significant arctic air outbreak still on track, which will begin Friday morning. Minimum wind chill values this weekend as cold as -20F is expected for southwest Kansas with the coldest wind chills on Saturday morning.

- An Extreme Cold Watch has been issued for the 3 southern rows of counties for Friday night through Saturday morning.

- Light snow is expected to begin Friday and intensify into the Friday/Saturday overnight. If trends continue, areas could see widespread amounts of >5" of snow through Saturday.

- The Winter Storm Watch that is in effect from Friday morning through Sunday morning has been expanded. If trends continue, it will need further expansion and an upgrade as we get closer to the event.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 351 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

The relatively empty synoptic pattern with northwest flow is still expected to transition into a more zonal flow today into tomorrow. A weak low-level high pressure system has taken advantage and situated in western Kansas. This will help keep skies clear and winds light (<15 mph) for most of SW Kansas today. Highs are forecast in the 50s today with the calm weather. Thursday is forecast to be quite similar except with cloud cover moving in from the south. This will keep highs a little cooler in the 40s on Thursday. The overwhelming priority and forecast is the system that is expected to move through Friday brining very cold weather and potentially heavy snowfalls.

The system will bring a sharp shot of very cold arctic air. Friday morning will see the onset of the CAA with the transport and cloud cover expected to nearly eliminate diurnal heating into the day Friday. As a result the Friday/Saturday overnight is forecast to be very cold with nearly the whole area below 0 degrees. Sunday and Monday mornings are held by ensembles to be just as cold with low temperatures between 0 and -5 degrees. The latter two overnights both have wind chills that teeter around Cold Weather Advisory conditions. The colder overnight will be Friday/Saturday with stronger winds. With winds as strong as 20 mph, wind chills may reach as low -25 in some areas with the majority of SW Kansas around -18 to -20 degrees. There is very high confidence in there being very cold and hazardous wind chills, but uncertainty remains on if the temperatures will reach Extreme Cold Warning or just Cold Weather Advisory. Forecasted temperatures, backed by ensemble, are cold enough that the southern rows of counties have had a Extreme Cold Watch issued from 9 PM CST Friday to noon Saturday. The northern counties not included in the watch will be that cold if not colder, but have stricter criteria so are currently without a headline despite a forecasted -18 to -22 minimum wind chills. The next two nights after that will see similar lows but with weaker winds. As a result while a Cold Weather Advisory may be needed, the opportunity to a Extreme Cold Warning is contained to nearly only Friday/Saturday overnight as of now. Trends over the previous days have gotten colder as the models/ensembles have finally caught up (they are often too warm in the days leading up especially for events like this). If the trends continue an Extreme Cold Watch will be considered for the subsequent nights and for the entire CWA.

Even more pressing than the cold air transport, is the potential for very heavy snow. A Winter Storm Watch was issued last night and has expanded with the latest forecast. It now encompasses the southeast half of the CWA. This comes with ensembles sharply increasing amounts northward up into Pawnee and Hodgeman counties and even beyond. Despite vast amounts of uncertainty remaining with the snow, it is refreshing to see models and ensemble members slowly converging on a somewhat narrower solution. As recent as last afternoon there was still an unsettling amount of members of various ensembles giving the CWA virtually zero snow. Finally those members have seemed to catch up. It should be noted that this trend does not eliminate the chance for a bust. With the event being a more isentropic setup, the amount of time snow falls may make or break the event. Friday is forecast to see the snow begin slowly with only light accumulations into Friday evening. Most of the snow will fall Friday night and into Saturday. It is expected to only see minor winter impacts if any during the daytime hours of Friday. If the snow ends early, before the heaviest snow can initiate, 1-3 inches may be the highest amounts in the watch area and as little as a trace elsewhere. Again current guidance is trending away from that outcome, but it should be noted as a potential break point. Snow ratios continue to be estimated in the 17-20 via ensembles so not a lot of moisture will be needed for substantial snow amounts. With event long QPF values progged to be around 0.5", the ceiling for possible snow is evident. Via the NBM, east of highway 283 has a 30- 50% chance for a foot of snow. While the NBM has more snow than other ensembles, there is a meaningful opportunity for very heavy snow. While a range of 2-12 inches is large, it is reflective of the uncertainty and rapidly changing trends. That range is not even complete in the event that a bust (like mentioned earlier) manifests or if the trends of more snow continue and fall along the lines of the snowier solutions more than a foot is possible. Again the talk of the upper and lower bounds should not be taken as the current forecast and is rather laying out a full suite of potential outcomes. Many non-NBM ensemble members have snowfalls around 3-7 inches. It should be noted that these come out of 0Z runs that have more snow than runs previous. The synopsis is growing confidence in snow accumulations CWA wide, impactful accumulations in the Watch area, and that the ends of the spectrum between a bust and a high- end event are both possible and uncertain. Stay up to date with future changes to the forecast and future weather headlines. The strongest winds are not well correlated with the heaviest snow, so blizzard conditions are not currently expected. The strongest winds (up to 30 mph) Friday will occur when snow is the lightest. Into Saturday morning when snowfall is forecast to increase significantly, winds are expected to be around 10-15 mph. All in all, winds will contribute to drifting, some blowing snow, and wind chills but currently not approach white-out conditions.

After the system exits, the start of next week will work to warm back up. Monday through Wednesday will see highs warm from the low 30s up into the 40s on Wednesday. It is also expected that dry air will return and we will get weather similar to today. Seasonable weather for winter with quiet weather.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1112 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Flying conditions should be tranquil across western Kansas today as we will have VFR flight category for all terminals. A weak front will move through today shifting the winds to the northeast however in general wind speeds should be 12 kts or less. We could see some brief wind gusts up to 20 kts during the early to mid afternoon.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Cold Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for KSZ061>066-074>081-084>090. Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through late Saturday night for KSZ064>066-077>081-087>090.