textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated thunderstorms (15% or less) are possible this afternoon/early tonight across portions of south central Kansas (primarily Barber and Pratt counties). Main hazard from any storm that does develop will be gusty winds.

- Slightly below seasonal average temperatures are expected early next week. Highs will range from 90 to 95.

- An extended dry period expected next week.

- A warming trend will return to southwest Kansas by late week/early next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1131 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Earlier this morning a 500mb high was located near the four corners region with a northwest flow occurring across the West Central high Plains. Embedded in this northwest flow severe weak upper waves were present based on water vapor loop and upper air analysis. At the surface a surface boundary was nearly stationary over the Panhandle of Texas and western Oklahoma. Any late day or evening storm development will likely be focused along and just north of this boundary as one of the subtle upper level disturbances passes. Latest models and model guidance suggests a low probability (15% or less) of storms later this afternoon and early this evening, primarily affecting Barber and portions of Pratt County. If any isolated storm does develop the main hazard appears to be gusty winds.

On Sunday the surface boundary will move south ending most/if not all chances for precipitation. The possible exception will be extreme southwest Kansas near the Colorado border (primarily Morton County). East/southeasterly flow will persist across southwest Kansas as an upper level ridge/high builds into the Northern Rockies. This easterly flow will limit any warmup potential based on the forecast 850mb temperature trends between 00z Sunday and 00z Monday along with high confidence in the latest guidance forecast due to the small spread in the forecast highs between the 25th and 75th percentile. Sundays high should be very similar to those expected this afternoon (Saturday), maybe a degree or two cooler in a few places.

Early next week an upper level ridge will build northeast across the Northern Plains. While this pattern concentrates the best warmup, extreme high temperatures, over Dakotas it will keep a persistent easterly flow over the Central Plains. This will result in keeping the temperatures below the 700mb level on the cool side and most models are forecasting that the 850mb temperatures will be even a few degrees cooler during the first few days of next week than what we currently expect on Sunday. Given this ongoing trend from the models it currently appears that highs at least through the first half of the work week will range from 90 to 95 degrees, several degrees below the seasonal averages for this time of year.

Precipitation chance will be low/nil through the end of the work week while a warming trend begins late week/early next weekend as the upper ridge over the northern Plains weakens and starts to shift/redevelop southwest near the four corners region.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 515 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the entire TAF period. Winds will be easterly throughout the forecast around 5-10 knots with only a few clouds.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.