textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through Saturday.

- Precipitation chances (20-30%) return Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1201 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

WV imagery indicates a northwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, high pressure is moving slowly southeast across the Texas Panhandle.

Dry conditions will persist through the early part of the weekend as the SREF indicates very little change to the overall pattern with a persistent northwest flow aloft across the Western High Plains, not to mention westerly downsloping supporting a drier air mass across western Kansas. Precipitation chances (20-30%) pick up a little Sunday as medium range ensembles indicate the flow aloft becoming more zonal while easterly upsloping develops across southwest/central Kansas in wake of a cold front pushing southward into the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. With modest increased moisture/lift present, the potential for light rain/winter mix development will increase as a weak upper level shortwave perturbation transitions east out of the Colorado Rockies into the Central Plains by mid-day Sunday. This is supported by the latest NBM painting only a 10-20% probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding even 0.1 of an inch across central Kansas into a small portion of south central Kansas by Sunday evening.

Well above normal temperatures are forecast tonight despite surface high pressure reinforcing a slightly cooler air mass across western Kansas. The latest HREF points to a 60-80% probability of temperatures dipping below 40F across much of southwest Kansas and central Kansas with only a 10% probability of falling below 40F in south central Kansas. With that, look for lows generally in the 30s(F). West-southwest downsloping returns Friday as lee side troughing slowly develops in eastern Colorado, helping nudge H85 temperatures above 10C in central Kansas to near 15C near the Colorado line. Widespread afternoon highs in the 70s(F) are likely Friday with the HREF painting a broad 70-90% probability of temperatures exceeding 70F. A halt in the warming trend is forecast Saturday as cooler air begins to filter southward into western Kansas, dropping highs into the 60s(F) in central Kansas with the lower/mid 70s(F) still expected farther south.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1004 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through early Friday. Northwest winds 10 to 20kt with gusts up to 25kt through late afternoon are expected to subside this evening as surface high pressure slides southeast out of the Texas Panhandle.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.