textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect Thursday morning from 2-11 AM CST.

- A Fire Weather Watch is in effect Thursday afternoon for the western three counties.

- Limited thunderstorm potential and coverage Thursday night for the far southeast counties. Some storms may be severe with large hail and damaging winds.

- A strong cold front is scheduled to arrive Friday afternoon with strong north winds. Limited severe potential ahead of this cold front across eastern zones Friday afternoon.

- Much cooler Saturday, with a rapid warming trend Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1039 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Fog has already begun to develop between Dodge City and Wichita with Dodge city down to 4 mile visibilities. The forecast is that this will continue to become more dense and progress eastward. To that end, a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the eastern 3/4 of the CWA from 2 AM to 11 AM. Visibilities down to 1/4 miles is expected. Some uncertainty remains regarding the exact timing and density (especially out west). It is forecast to clear around 10-11 AM.

Thursday after the fog and stratus clears, highs are forecast to race up to and beyond 70 degrees with the warmest temperatures out west. The SPC has shifted the slight risk area eastward significantly, now only covering the far southeastern counties. Ensembles still have a positively tilted trough approaching and reaching the Four Corners Thursday into Friday. Ensembles have remained steady in holding the dryline just east of the KS/CO border. This is a rough demarcation line of where storm are able to develop east of the boundary. West of the boundary will remain dry and may present a fire weather risk. Relative humidity minimums are forecast between 15-20% and winds up to 25-30 mph with even stronger gusts. As a result, a marginal fire weather risk should be monitored especially if the region of driest air stretches farther into SW Kansas. The eastern 3 counties, Morton, Stanton, and Hamilton are under a Fire Weather Watch from 1 PM to 7 PM.

From a severe weather standpoint, the focus will be if storms are able to develop and/or reach the CWA. Forecast soundings from both the RAP and the NAMNST have a tremendous amount of CIN. Especially outside of the southeastern counties (Barber and surrounding) will likely see little to no convection (<10% via ensembles). With virtually no strong forcing located in Kansas, storms will need to initiate in the TX/OK panhandles in the evening before moving northeastward clipping the CWA. It would be roughly 11 PM by the storms make it this far north if at all. In the event that these storms do develop and track into the area, they will be high-based and likely only a notable hail threat up to 1-1.5 inches. While unlikely, the other two severe threats can not be ruled out entirely. Storms that make it will have some upper-level dynamical support, strong deep layer shear (40-50 KTs), and enough CAPE to sustain already developed storms. The CAMs are currently split on weather the entire day for SW Kansas is capped out. RAP and NAMNST have virtually no convection. Most other CAMs have at least some storms making it up into Barber county and not much further northwest. Any storm threat that does occur should be over by around 2 AM.

More fog development is possible early Friday morning before the dryline shifts eastward through the morning. One key to Friday's storm potential will be where the dryline is placed during possible initiation. Ensembles have it around the highway 283 and 281 corridors. In the event that initiation is a little later and/or the dryline is farther east that anticipated, SW Kansas may miss out on convection nearly entirely. If not, the intersection of the dryline and descending cold front will create a potent forcing for thunderstorms. Pratt only holds around a 25% chance for precipitation via ensembles. These chances drop to below 10% reaching Dodge City. As such, any thunderstorms that impact the CWA will be very limited in spatial scope similar to Thursday night. With all that in mind, ingredients will be favorable for severe weather by early March standards. The NAMNST forecast sounding has CAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, SRH at 150-200 m2/s2, and deep layer shear from 50-60 kts. With this environment, storms will initially lean towards a supercellular mode especially early as would be needed to affect the CWA. This early timing would be roughly 3 PM and would not last long before exiting eastward.

Far SW Kansas has forecast relative humidities between 10-15% and winds up to 20 mph. Currently the winds are forecast too light for fire weather headlines, but as winds across SW Kansas tend to over preform this may change quickly over the next couple forecast cycles. Regardless of meeting specific headline criteria, general precautions are still advised.

After the cold front passage on Friday, Saturday highs are forecast to be much cooler down in the upper 50s. This will be short lived as Sunday warms to the 70s and Monday goes further pushing towards 80 degrees. Long-ranged ensembles have hints of precipitation chances returning Tuesday/Wednesday, but enough temporal uncertainty remains with the approaching system that declarative statements are futile.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 425 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Low clouds and reduced visibilities will bring IFR to LIFR conditions to the TAF sites. Visibilities down to a quarter of a mile are expected. VFR conditions should return by late morning as the atmosphere mixes. Winds will generally be out of a southerly direction, gusting to over 25 knots by this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1137 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Confidence is not high that the dryline will be able to mix eastward into far western Kansas Thursday afternoon. Relative humidity will plummet to near 15% west of the dryline, and this much drier air may intrude into portions of Hamilton, Stanton and Morton counties for a few hours Thursday afternoon. High confidence of strong to intense south to southwest winds Thursday afternoon, with gusts over 40 mph expected. Where these winds and low relative humidity overlap, critical wildfire conditions will develop. Red flag criteria may remain in Colorado, but opted to issue a fire weather watch for Hamilton, Stanton and Morton counties for now.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST this morning for KSZ030-031- 043>046-063>066-076>081-086>090. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CST /noon MST/ this afternoon to 7 PM CST /6 PM MST/ this evening for KSZ061-074-084.