textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- A good soaking rain will continue this morning and possibly into the afternoon hours.

- Rainfall amounts of 0.50" to 2.0" is looking to remain on track. Isolated higher amounts in excess of 2" cannot be ruled out either.

- Looking ahead, a drier and warmer weekend is expected across southwest Kansas.

- Additional unsettled weather is forecast by the ensembles next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Our 00Z RAOB measured a PWAT of 1.70". This is well over the 90th percentile of 1.15". The max for this day per the SPC RAOB climo was 1.56". The bottom line is that we are dealing with an incredibly wet atmosphere for this time of year. At the mid level of the atmosphere, satellite water vapor channel shows a mid level trof working across the southern Rockies. Ahead of this disturbance, radar is showing plenty of showers across the entire region. As a result, the scattered soaking rain showers will continue to work across the FA through the early morning hours. Several CAMs continue to indicate various rainfall amounts falling this morning and later today. There seems to be a general consensus of 0.5" to 2.0". Some of CAMs are forecasting 3+" through early Friday morning. The latest official NBM/WPC grid has rainfall amounts in the 0.5" to 2.0", with isolated higher amounts. There is a little bit of uncertainty in exactly how much additional showers will develop later this afternoon. Given the very moist atmosphere, it seems prudent to continue to hold on to higher pops later today given the very moist atmosphere. I did ask neighbors (PUB and GLD) if they wanted to join AMA in issuing any flood headlines. The duration of this event is rather long and it has been very dry recently, so a consensus of no headlines was reached on this shift. Otherwise, enjoy the cloudy, rainy and cool day. We certainly needed this type of weatWidespread showers and thunderstorms will become more widely scattered by this afternoon a the first in a series of upper level waves embedded in a moisture rich southwest flow will crosses southwest Kansas. Precipitation chances will then return late day as the next wave approaches from the southwest. VFR ceilings outside this area of precipitation will decrease below 3000ft AGL as these storms approach from the west southwest. Locally heavy rainfall from these storms may also result IFR ceilings and reduced visibilities, especially tonight.her day given the above normal heat we have been experiencing.

Looking ahead, addition widely scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will be possible for Friday. Areal coverage should start to be lesser Friday than compared to Thursday, as PWATs are forecast to decrease through the day and as the main synoptic trof starts to swing out of the general region. By Saturday and Sunday, GEFS and ENS are forecasting shortwave ridging with drier air continue to advect in from the west and northwest. This would support the notion of a drier and warmer forecast. Highs over the weekend will likely trend to be above normal with values peaking solidly in the low to mid 80s. Lows will also trend to be above normal with values only bottoming out mainly in the 60s than compared to the normal 50s.

For next week, long range models and their ensemble counterparts are forecasting another trof starting to carve out across the southwestern United States. Moisture advection looks to increase once again downstream of this mid level disturbance with PWATs reaching higher values across the Great Plains. This moisture along with some mid level waves moving across should set the stage of showers and isolated thunderstorms as we start to head through the beginning to mid period of the next business week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 506 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Rain showers and thunderstorms will become more widely scattered by late morning/early this afternoon as the first in a series of upper level waves embedded in a moisture rich southwest flow crosses southwest Kansas. Precipitation chances will then return late day as the next wave approaches from the southwest. VFR ceilings outside the areas of precipitation will decrease to below 3000ft AGL as the next round of storms approach from the west southwest. Locally heavy rainfall from these storms will also result IFR ceilings and reduced visibilities, especially tonight.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.