textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- An active, wet pattern will continue through Friday, with periodic rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms will produce severe wind gusts, large hail, and locally heavy/flooding rainfall.

- A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for all of southwest Kansas Wednesday night through Thursday night. Additional rainfall from the next thunderstorm complex, on saturated soils, may lead to excessive runoff and flooding concerns.

- Additional scattered thunderstorms Thursday through Friday will continue to pose a severe wind/hail and locally heavy rain risk.

- Below normal afternoon temperatures will continue through Friday.

- A distinct pattern change is expected this weekend and early next week, with much hotter afternoons, rain chances ending, and strong south winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Another impressive mesoscale convective system (MCS) last night, with widespread 1-2 inches of rainfall across much of SW KS. Midday satellite imagery shows the clearing process this morning has been efficient after the MCS's exit. Mesoanalysis revealed recovery was well underway, with 1000-2000 MLCAPE already in place from southwest zones northwestward to northeast Colorado. Models are in better agreement compared to yesterday, with the next MCS in this repeating pattern expected tonight. All zones will be dry through 7 pm this evening as the boundary layer continues to recover. CAM consensus shows initial supercells growing upscale into the next MCS roughly over GLD's CWA, with the resulting complex approaching the northwest zones around 10 pm. Primary risk from this southeastward-moving MCS will be damaging outflow winds, with gusts of 60-75 mph.

MCS will slowly move/develop southeast into SW KS through Thursday morning, and pops were raised into the likely/definite categories. Areas of heavy/excessive rain will occur, some of it falling on saturated soils from previous rains. After coordination with surrounding WFOs, opted to issue a flash flood watch for all zones, starting 1 am Thursday and continuing through 1 am Friday. There will likely be a several hour break in the rainfall during the midday hours, before scattered thunderstorms redevelop at peak heating Thursday afternoon. Convection placement and severity is more uncertainty Thursday, with recovery questions from morning storms, and boundary placement issues. A strong stationary boundary will be somewhere near the KS/OK border at peak heating, but its exact position will be modulated by outflow from tonight's expected MCS. Any severe hail/wind potential will favor the southern zones, with an elevated hail risk north of the front, and any surface-based tornado risk likely remaining south of the KS/OK line. NBM forecasts quite the temperature gradient Thursday with the front in the vicinity, ranging from lower 70s at Hays, to lower 90s near Oklahoma. Flash flood watch will continue through Thursday night to account for this additional activity on saturated soils. Will also need to monitor for one more MCS favoring the northeast zones late Thursday, as some models suggest.

Again most of daylight Friday will be dry. The synoptic pattern will begin the expected change, with troughing deepening over the Pacific NW, and midlevel flow trending SWly over SW KS. One more day of at least a marginal severe risk Friday, to account for any isolated thunderstorms on the evolving dryline.

An abrupt pattern change to dry weather and hot afternoons is still expected Saturday through Monday, with afternoon temperatures in the 97-103 range each afternoon. Recent rainfall, standing water and green vegetation will help hold afternoon temperatures down a few degrees from the hottest guidance, but still the progged pattern is quite hot. Dry NBM forecast Saturday through Monday was maintained.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1023 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Excellent flying weather is expected through 00z Thu, with VFR/SKC and light southeast winds. The next thunderstorm complex is expected to be approaching GCK/HYS during the 03-06z Thu time frame, reaching DDC 06-09z Thu. Primary hazards will be heavy rain and outflow winds as high as 50 kts. Included convective TEMPO groups when and where confidence in thunderstorm impacts is highest. High confidence that IFR stratus will return to HYS/DDC behind the storms, by 12z Thu. Confidence on storm coverage and stratus is much less at LBL, so kept the LBL TAF much more optimistic overall.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from late tonight through late Thursday night for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.