textproduct: Dodge City
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Intense heatwave expected Saturday through Tuesday, with afternoon temperatures above 105 common. Extreme temperatures of 110 to 112 are expected at some locations.
- Preparations for homes, automobiles, pets and livestock are encouraged for this upcoming heatwave.
- Southwest Kansas is expected to remain dry through next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 119 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026
An upper level ridge will amplify over the plains over the next several days, leading to very hot weather. For today, areas that received heavy rain will be more humid. A heat advisory remains in effect for the south where the heat and moisture will lead to heat indices in excess of 105. An isolated shower or t-storm can't be ruled out across the far southwest corner of Kansas with afternoon heating; but the best chance will be south of the state line with where a weak frontal boundary will reside.
The various ensemble means continue to indicate high temperatures between 105 and 111 for Sunday through Tuesday given the strong upper level ridge. There is some indication that the intense heat could last through Wednesday, especially from Dodge City southward. There is general agreement among the ensemble means that a front will progress into central Kansas by Tuesday or Wednesday. There is a chance that the front could make it farther south. However, even if a frontal passage occurs, it is often oppressive on the cooler but moist side of fronts this time of year where very high dewpoints typically reside. Therefore, north of the front it will be hot and humid while south of the front it will be very hot and dry. Either way it will feel very hot. Isolated t-storms can't be ruled out wherever the front stalls out given the moisture and frontal convergence; but with a very weak shear profile expected, the storms will likely be sub-severe, or at best marginally severe with high winds. The grand ensemble shows chances of .5" or more of rain between 0 and 5% next week.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026
Excellent flying weather is expected through this TAF period, with VFR/SKC and light winds.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ087>090.
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