textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Stronger south to south-southeast winds today in the 20-30 mph range, but slightly cooler temperatures with highs in the upper 70s.

- High confidence in a multi-day precipitation event this weekend, beginning Saturday afternoon and continuing through Monday.

- Much more seasonable temperatures will accompany the rainfall, and persist through the end of the period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis late Thursday evening reveal a highly amplified synoptic pattern remains in place atop the CONUS, with a formidable trough over the far western CONUS and a modest ridge downstream from the High Plains into the Midwest. At the surface, southwest KS resides between broad high pressure over nearly the entire CONUS east of the Rockies, and incipient lee troughing over eastern MT and adjacent areas. Through the remainder of the overnight period, continued deepening of the surface low as the upper wave approaches will maintain elevated southerly winds, supporting Friday morning lows only in the upper 50s/near 60. Daytime Friday, the deep upper trough out west will make little progress eastward, however an embedded vorticity max will eject north-northeast from the Great Basin to the northern plains. In response, the surface trough will deepen to ~996-mb, resulting in an uptick in south to south-southeast winds into the 20- 30 mph range gusting to 40 mph. On the other hand, decreasing 500-mb heights will shave a few degrees off afternoon temperatures, with highs in the upper 70s. Friday night, winds will again hold in the 10-20 mph range, and lows will repeat in the upper 50s/near 60.

Daytime Saturday, short range ensembles indicate the strong upper wave will advance to near the Four Corners region. As DPVA begins to overspread the central plains, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop in eastern CO and spread into western KS by late afternoon/early evening, marking the beginning of a multi-day precipitation event as the slow moving trough provides the ideal synoptic scenario for rainfall across our area. Additionally, little to no instability will preclude any severe weather risk. Temperatures will also continue to decrease with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 60s near the KS/CO border to the mid/upper 70s across our eastern zones.

Sunday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles agree precipitation will become much more widespread over our area as the upper low moves over the central Rockies on Sunday, then ejects onto the central/northern plains on Monday. Current thinking is moderate to heavy rainfall will favor areas along and west of a Hays-Meade line on Sunday before expanding to the eastern zones on Monday. Once all is said and done, the ECMWF ENS and GEFS mean total precipitation fields suggest 1-2" of rainfall is possible along and west of the aforementioned line, and 0.25-1" to the east. Much more seasonable temperatures will accompany the precipitation, with afternoon highs staying in the 60s to low 70s Sunday through the end of the business week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Current southerly winds in the 12-17 kt range will continue overnight before increasing into the 18-23 kt range by late morning and persisting through the late afternoon. After sunset, winds will weaken slightly back down into the 12-17 kt range.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.