textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Precipitation chances increase along and south of the KS/OK border this evening into the overnight period

- Precipitation chances spread north into the remainder of the CWA tomorrow and continue through Thursday morning.

- The storms are not expected to be severe.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1201 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

The upper level ridge over us the last couple of days will be push eastward as a strong upper level low digs into the western United States. This upper level low remain in place through Thursday with shortwaves moving around its periphery and towards the Central High Plains. At the surface, southerly winds are expected today then shift to the southeast for the remainder of the forecast. The lower levels of the atmosphere will allow moisture from the Gulf to ooze into the Plains. This moisture in the low levels in combination of the upper level disturbances will create enough lift and instability for storms to form across the Plains. These storms chances will be confined to along and south of the KS/OK border this evening and overnight, spreading across the remainder of the CWA tomorrow. The NBM depicts the best chance of precipitation will be tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night. Precipitation chances will then be confined to central Kansas Thursday into Friday morning. As of now SPC and AI models do not have high probabilities of any of these storms to be severe. As for temperatures, highs today will reach into the 80s with mid 70s to low 80s Wednesday and Thursday. We then reach into the low 80s Friday. Lows will generally range from the low 50s to low 60s through Friday morning.

Extended models then show the upper level low ejecting northeast with continued upper level disturbances ejecting into the central Plains. This will bring another chance of precipitation to the area this weekend. Models then show some drier conditions early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 514 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Mid to High clouds will increase today with VFR ceilings (8000ft or higher) developing after 21z. A few isolated to widely scattered showers (<30%) will also be possible around Liberal late today. Early tonight a mid level deformation zone moving into southwest Kansas will result in the convection increasing in coverage as clouds thicken and lower near the Oklahoma border (Liberal area). At Garden City and Dodge City after 00z Wednesday the ceilings are also expected decrease and latest guidance indicates ceilings will fall below 4000ft after 06z Wednesday and then below 1500 ft AGL after 09Z, with areas of fog developing. Hays will stay north of this main activity, with low clouds, fog, and the bulk of the rainfall not impacting that terminal until after 12Z Wednesday. Winds across southwest Kansas today will be southeast, starting at around 10 knots early today and increasing to 15 to 20 knots by 18Z.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.