textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably hot afternoon temperatures Sunday and Monday, with record highs expected for March 29th and 30th; hottest temperatures are expected Monday afternoon in the mid 90s

- The next cold front will bring strong north winds Tuesday, followed by dramatically cooler air and below normal temperatures Wednesday.

- Scattered rain showers are most likely Wednesday night and early Thursday, but any rain amounts will be light.

- Another warming trend expected Thursday and Friday.

- Severe thunderstorm potential eastern zones Friday afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Midday surface observations depicted a surface trough/ wind shift line progressing eastward across SW KS, with much warmer air arriving behind the trough axis. Winds are much lighter than yesterday, and will trend even lighter, to light and variable, late this afternoon. Despite this lack of mixing, much warmer 850 mb temperatures and dry topsoils will send temperatures to near 90 at 4 pm. This is about 25 degrees above late March normals, with new record highs expected this afternoon.

Monday will be even hotter, supported by an increase of another 3-5C at 850 mb, and an increase in breezy SWly downslope compression and mixing. Forecast continues to lie near or above the warmest guidance, with 90s common and more record highs expected. Once again the hottest temperatures will be found in the Red Hills and adjacent to Oklahoma, in the 97-100 range. Monday night/early Tuesday will be very mild, with mixing ahead of the advancing cold front, with many locations remaining in the 50s through sunrise.

The next dry cold front is forecast to arrive in the northern zones about sunrise Tuesday, then quickly clear the Oklahoma border by midday, followed by elevated to strong north winds. As usual, NBM is not strong enough with these north winds, with the strongest 12z MET guidance preferred. North gusts to near 45 mph are expected through midday before diminishing. Much cooler Tuesday, in the 60s and 70s, but still well above normal for the last day of March.

Much cooler air will be wedged into the majority of SW KS for one day Wednesday, with a very large temperature gradient likely as the front becomes stationary near/north of the Oklahoma border. Temperature gradient is expected to be much sharper than NBM depicts, with 30s and 40s along I-70 and 70s near Oklahoma, much like the 12z NAM suggests. Thick cloud cover and drizzle will also act to hold temperatures down north of the front. Chance category pops (30-50%) from NBM were maintained Wednesday, but much precipitation daylight Wednesday may take the form of drizzle. The best opportunity for meaningful, measurable rainfall is focused on the northeast zones Wednesday night and early Thursday. Even here, NBM probability of QPF > 0.10 inch is still 40% or less. Nonetheless, confidence of light rain amounts is increasing, especially north and east of Dodge City, Wednesday night/early Thursday as the shortwave arrives. Hopefully in areas that just receive drizzle we can at least settle some dust.

Dry warmer weather on Thursday with SW KS in between one shortwave exiting eastward, and a much stronger closed midlevel cyclone over the northern Rockies. A warming trend can be expected Thursday and Friday with increasing south winds.

Severe thunderstorm potential remains evident focused on the eastern/southeast zones late Friday/Friday night, east of the dryline and south of the advancing cold front. How fast the cold front advances is a key question, and models continue to disagree how much warm sector will remain in SW KS before convective initiation occurs. Instability and shear will support organized storms, but climatology argues for this being southeast of Barber county. Additional elevated showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday night, per NBM pops, as the primary trough ejects onto the plains.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF period, with VFR/SKC, scattered cirrus, and light winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Surface observations depicted an elevated wildfire risk across western zones at midday, with northwest winds gusting 20-25 mph, and relative humidity falling below 10%. Hot temperatures will support critically low relative humidity, but with winds remaining marginal, no fire weather headlines will be issued for Sunday.

Even hotter temperatures are expected Monday, in the mid to upper 90s, which will again drive minimum relative humidity to to the critical 7-10% range. Winds will be more marginal, but an uptick in southwest winds will occur Monday afternoon, averaging 15-25 mph with gusts to near 30 mph at times. With winds relatively light, not confident all zones will reach sustained red flag criteria Monday. But with record heat, dry air, dormant vegetation and expanding drought, opted to issue a fire weather watch for Monday afternoon/evening, after coordinating with WFOs AMA/OUN/PUB.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>080-084>089.