textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm weather is forecast through Saturday with highs in the 70s to lower 80s.

- There is increasing confidence on significant rain amounts for late Saturday night through mid-day Monday.

- Clouds and rain will keep temperatures a little cooler for Sunday, with highs in the 60s west and 70s east.

- A cold front will pass on Monday, with highs falling to the upper 50s west and 60s in central Kansas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 102 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Upper level ridging and surface troughing in the lee of the Rockies will result in warm temperatures through at least Saturday, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s from northeast to southwest. By Saturday the ridge will move off to the east of the high plains, allowing low to mid level moisture to advance northward from the tropics onto the western high plains. Widespread showers are expected to form Sunday morning, with perhaps a break in the early afternoon. Given some mid level cold advection, there may be enough instability for strong to marginally severe t-storms Sunday afternoon in far western Kansas. However, cloud cover, cool temperatures and poor lapse rates will likely preclude severe weather altogether.

Rain amounts and timing will depend on how fast the upper trough moves east, with a slower solution possibly resulting in locally heavy rains up to 2" across western Kansas. The various ensemble suites vary on the speed of the system and thus on the duration and amounts of rain. The grand ensemble indicates 40-70% chances for 1+" of rain across far western Kansas (US-83 and west to the state line) and similar chances of .75" from Dodge City to Hays. South central Kansas will likely get the least amount of rain, including locations such as Pratt and Medicine Lodge, with moderate to high chances of .5" or greater.

The aforementioned upper level trough will weaken after passing the high plains, with the associated cool frontal passage Monday morning. Expect highs in the 50s and 60s Monday. This cooler air is forecast to linger into Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 456 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Light and variable winds will gradually become east southeast at less than 10 knots overnight as a trough of low pressure along the lee of the Rockies develops. This moist upslope flow overnight will result in areas of low clouds and/or stratus between 10z and 14z, mainly in the Garden City and possible Liberal areas. Currently the chance for visibilities falling as low as 1 miles appear low (30-50%). Light southeast winds early Thursday morning will increase to near 15 knots by 18z Thursday with higher gusts possible during afternoon.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.