textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions expected today west of Highway 83 with low relative humidity, gusty winds, and possible dry thunderstorms;

- Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather in place today across western Kansas

- Another Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for a conditional risk for severe weather Thursday afternoon and evening

- Near critical fire weather conditions possible Thursday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

04z analysis depicts mid-upper level trough entering the Western U.S., with strong flow rounding the base and eastern periphery over the Great Basin region. This trough will continue to move eastward throughout the day today, with the flow reaching the High Plains this afternoon. At the surface, a dryline will be situated in close proximity to the KS/CO border. This could serve as a focus for some isolated convection into the afternoon and evening. However, with weak flow and still meager moisture, expect storms to struggle to develop and maintain. Expectation for limited storm coverage (20-25%) is still evident. If storms are able to develop and sustain, there could be localized severe potential. This is highlighted with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) in place for areas along and west of Route 283. With large dew point depressions, think isolated instances of 60 mph winds will be possible from downburst (possibly dry microburst) potential. Hail will also be a marginal hazard with MUCAPE climbing above 1500 J/kg, but ultimately better moisture would have to be realized to see hail be a bigger threat. As a result of the limited moisture, dry thunderstorms will be a possibility, and this will enhance the fire weather risk. See more details in Fire Weather section regarding today's and Thursday's fire weather risk.

Into Thursday, aforementioned trough will continue to swing into the central Plains. This will push the dryline farther eastward through much of the CWA, shunting moisture out of much of the area. A cold front will sweep southeastward, leading to likely thunderstorm initiation along it across central and eastern Kansas. As it has been the case in recent convective situations, the timing and placement of the dryline and cold front will determine if our forecast area sees storm or not. Nearly all 00z guidance keep convection clear our CWA, and latest NBM POPs are supportive of this with only far eastern Pratt and Barber Counties at 15-20%. Given the chance, albeit low, will maintain the mention of strong to locally severe storms for now. If the placement of the boundaries are farther west, then more of the CWA can be impacted. In this conditional regime, significant hail 2" diameter or larger and damaging winds would be the primary hazards should they develop and occur in our CWA.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 521 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Low clouds will dissipate by late morning giving away to mostly clear skies. Highs clouds roll in this evening into the overnight period. Winds will generally be from the south, gusting to over 30 knots this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1232 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are expected across western Kansas today, west of Route 83, due to gusty southerly winds 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph, relative humidity as low as 11%, and isolated dry thunderstorms possible. With dry thunderstorms possible, an increased risk of lightning induced fires are evident. Any potential fires caused by lightning could be erratic with nearby dry downburst winds generated by thunderstorms.

Thursday has the potential to see another near critical to critical fire weather day across portions of the area. While minimum relative humidity less than 20% is likely for all of western and central Kansas, the winds are a little less certain. After conversing with surrounding offices, have elected to hold off on any new Red Flag/Fire Weather Headlines until the wind becomes more certain in our forecast area. Winds in areas south and east of the forecast area are a bit more certain for fire weather potential, thus those offices have posted Fire Weather Watches. While there are no headlines from us for Thursday as of this update, they may be issued after further evaluation and coordination.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.