textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Very hot weather is forecast through next weekend.

- There are small chances for t-storms each afternoon and evening across far western Kansas near the Colorado state line; otherwise dry weather will persist.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 122 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

An upper level ridge over the southern Rockies will migrate eastward across the southern plains and Missouri/Arkansas region over the next week. Thus, the northwesterly mid level flow of late that has helped promote t-storm activity will end. Mid level disturbances will move over the ridge across the northern plains. These disturbances will generally help establish a frontal zone across northern Kansas and southern Nebraska by early next week. For the next two afternoons, mid level zonal flow across the Rockies will result in a surface trough in the lee of the Rockies. Isolated high-based t-storms will develop along the trough and may impact extreme western Kansas. Given the expected marginal instability, these storms should be sub- severe, with 40-55 mph wind gusts possible from Johnson to Syracuse Saturday and Sunday evenings. Very hot weather can be expected, with highs from 100-105. Given the dry air in place, heat indices will be at or below the actual temperatures.

Hot weather is expected to persist through next week as the aforementioned upper level ridge persists across the southern United States. Any chance for t-storms will be across far western Kansas and along I-70, with rain chances near 0% over south central Kansas. Temperatures are forecast to meet or exceed 100 degrees each day, except perhaps some upper 90s over west central Kansas. The various ensemble means indicate the upper level ridge only gradually passing eastward and flattening out. This pattern would keep intense heat in place through next weekend, with little in the way of rainfall. The grand ensemble shows 0-5% chances of daily 24 hour rainfalls exceeding a quarter of an inch through 5 September, with the 5% closer to the Colorado state line and along I-70.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

VFR conditions will prevail with some high level cloudiness overnight. Winds will be from the southwest, gusting to over 25 knots this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 122 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

There is an elevated risk of wildfire spread this afternoon and Sunday afternoon given the gusty southwest winds and dry air. Southwest winds will gust to 35-40 mph today along and east of a line from Liberal to Jetmore to Hays, with relative humidity in the 20-25% range.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.