textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Snowfall chances have increase this evening and overnight, favoring our northern zones where 1-2" of snow are expected. Locally higher amounts are possible.

- Near normal temperatures through the weekend with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

- Much warmer Tuesday through the end of the period, with highs in the 60s and 70.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1150 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Late morning water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal longwave troughing is in place over the CONUS, with a shortwave trough noted near the Four Corners region. At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is already underway across east- central CO and adjacent areas, with the classic "baroclinic leaf" signature on infrared satellite imagery over northern CO. As the surface low deepens, southeasterly upslope flow will increase mainly west of US-283, becoming sustained in the 15-20 mph range gusting to 30-35 mph. These strong winds will make afternoon highs in the 40s to low 50s feel more like 30s to low 40s. Focus then shifts to the potential for snowfall this evening into the overnight period favoring areas north of US-50. High resolution and ensemble guidance have all increased compared to this time yesterday as models show the ejecting shortwave trough close off at 700-mb for a few hours, allowing for stronger lift in the dendritic growth zone and therefore a brief period of heavier snow. Ensemble means suggest 1-2" is most likely for those areas, but ensemble max is in the 2-4" range, so I wouldn't be surprised if snowfall totals climb into that range locally. As a result, a Winter Weather Advisory will be issued for Trego, Ellis, Ness, and Rush counties, with westward expansion not out of the question.

Daytime Saturday, upper level ridging will begin to build over the western CONUS as the broad longwave trough gradually departs. At the surface, northwesterly winds will overspread the central plains as high pressure sags southward, reinforcing the cool airmass over our area and keeping afternoon highs near normal in the mid 40s to low 50s.

Sunday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles agree the upper level ridge will continue to build into mid-next week. Near normal temperatures will continue Sunday despite the upstream ridge, but a warming trend will commence on Monday with afternoon highs rising from the 50s on Monday into the 60s and 70 through the end of the period. In addition, subsidence aloft will suppress any noteworthy precipitation chances as NBM pops are quiet (<15%) through at least Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 506 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Main impact to aviation throughout this TAF period will be the weak storm system, that will bring increased chance of snowfall, reduced visibilities, and lower CIGs. For the first part of the TAF period, expect VFR conditions to prevail. However, MVFR and possibly IFR condition chances will increase tonight, especially for HYS. Conditions will improve through Saturday morning and VFR conditions will return for the rest of the TAF period. Winds throughout the period will generally be 5-15 knots, shifting northeast tonight to northwest from early Saturday morning through the rest of the period.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for KSZ030-031- 045-046.