textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense fog this morning morning from Interstate 70 southward to as far as possibly Medicine Lodge. This fog will slow the warming of highs in this region. Otherwise, it will be very warm for the rest of the FA today.

- Shortwave ridging will prevail Monday with dry conditions and pleasant temperatures.

- All eyes then turn to Tuesday through Thursday. Monsoonal moisture mixed in with remnant tropical moisture will set the stage for a likely heavy rainfall event.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1122 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

An immediate short term weather concern with potential travel impacts is dense fog. There is moist upslope flow from Oakley SSE to Medicine Lodge. Feel that as the boundary layer cools down to near or at the dewpoint temperature, dense fog should form in the morning. Have already issued a Dense Fog Advisory earlier in the shift to account for this hazardous travel concern. It is not totally clear how far west the edge of the dense fog will spread. It may reach Dodge City, or it could remain to the east of the city. For the rest of the FA, there should be light downslope flow and drier air across western Kansas. Fog shouldn't be an issue for that second area. Otherwise, the fog will likely slow the warming of the boundary layer across the eastern zones. Here, 70's for highs are likely. For the rest of the fog-free area, the dry atmosphere should have no problem warming well into the 80s.

On Monday, a large upper level low will start to carve out across California. Downstream, across our area, shortwave ridging will prevail across the Great Plains. The net weather result for Monday is a dry forecast and pleasant temperatures. Highs Monday will range from the mid to upper 70s across the northwest zones to the lower 80s across the southeast zones. Winds will eventually become light southeasterly as sfc pressures begin to fall across the High Plains of Colorado.

Attention then turns to the Tuesday through Thursday period. Both deterministic models as well as their ensemble counterparts show a large upper level low deepening across the southwestern United States. In addition, it looks like the remnants of Hurricane Polo will be absorbed in the synoptic low. Looking downstream of these two features, it looks like significant monsoonal and tropical moisture will advect in across Kansas. PWATs on some of the models are incredible with values in the 1.5" to may be even as high as 2.0". If you consider that the average PWAT for KDDC for that time of year is 0.74", you can see how statistically anomalous this incoming PWAT is. The bottom line is that the atmosphere will be incredibly primed for a heavy rainfall event across the state. The latest WPC QPF grids are forecasting 2" to 4" across southwest Kansas during this period. WPC also has a moderate risk Tuesday and a slight risk Wednesday in their Excessive Rainfall Outlook. Looking at other model sets, the LREF has greater than 60% probability of rainfall more than one inch. For 2", the LREF is down to 30-40% chance. Feel this might be a little too conservative though. Examining numerous ensemble members from the GEFS and ENS, it looks flat out wet across western Kansas. Several of the members have significant rainfall amounts across the entire region. Bottom line: it is looking very likely that a significant rainfall event will occur next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 513 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Northwest winds this morning at 10 knots or less will gradually shift to the east/northeast late day as surface pressures begin to fall long the lee of the Rockies. These east winds will then become more southeast after 00z Monday. Low clouds and areas of fog at 12z today, mainly in the Hays area will give way to VFR conditions by 15z. VFR conditions are then expected through early tonight. After midnight the latest ensembles indicated that there will be a greater than 70% chance that stratus at less than 1000ft AGL will spread back into the Hays area. Ensembles also indicating these low clouds may also impact the Garden City and Dodge City areas after 09z. In these areas there will also be be a greater than 50% chance for visibilities to fall below 3 mile after 09z Monday. At time will trend towards these lower ceilings and visibilities but confidence that far out is not high enough to go as low (IFR conditions) just yet as what the ensemble probabilities suggest.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for KSZ030-031- 044>046-064>066-078>081-089-090.