textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Much needed rainfall today.

- A frost/freeze is possible Thursday morning.

- Warming up for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Satellite water vapor channel shows a large positively tilted upper level trof extending from the Northern Plains back to the Desert Southwest. This feature and lift upstream of it will bring much needed showers across the FA this morning and tapering as the day continues. Right now the most updated NBM forecast is progging 0.20" to 0.30" for Elkhart, Dodge City, and Hays. To the northwest of this area, NBM is progging 0.50" and higher amounts for Syracuse, Garden City, and Scott City. These amounts are in fair agreement with both the CAMs as well as the global models and their ensemble. There may be a light wintery mix for Hamilton and Scott counties as this upper level wave moves through. Significant snow accumulation is not expected and amounts should remain under 1". The ground show be plenty warm and mainly wet from rain, so significant winter impacts appear unlikely as this time. Otherwise highs today will be cold and well below normal with values mainly in the 40s.

For tonight, a weak sfc high will slide south of the FA. There will be a light downslope southwesterly wind through Thursday morning. Feel that the latest NBM may be running on the cool side with this light downslope wind. Have the highest confidence of a freeze for the far western near Colorado counties. Have upgraded these 3 counties to a Freeze Warning. Have lower confidence farther east with the downsloping SW wind in the morning. As a result, will be keeping the remain counties in a Freeze Watch attm.

We will see a rather uneventful weather pattern Friday and into the weekend. The global models and their ensemble counterparts show no major synoptic systems influencing our area through this period. Highs will be pleasant Friday with values peaking in the 70s. 80s are expected Saturday. A dry fropa is expected Saturday evening. The main impact from this will be a weak wind shift and a cool down back into the 70s for Sunday. The NBM has low pops in the eastern zones for Saturday evening for storms. Confidence though is low on this, as both the GEFS and ENS ensemble members are not in agreement with this precipitation chance. Beyond this, long range models and their ensembles members show a rather warm business week next week and mainly a dry forecast.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Overall poor flight conditions through much of the TAF pd. An upper level weather disturbance will bring scattered showers to the terminals today. Plenty of low level moisture will result in IFR cigs through much of the day as well. Winds will be light, with mainly a northeasterly wind direction.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for KSZ030-043>045-062>064-075>078-085>087. Freeze Warning from 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ to 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ Thursday for KSZ061-074-084.