textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Much warmer temperatures this afternoon with highs climbing into the 90s.

- Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon mainly south and east of Dodge City, however confidence is low.

- Temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s are likely tomorrow before a strong cold front arrives in the late morning/early afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1145 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Late morning water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal a rather amplified synoptic pattern is in place atop the CONUS, with ridging west of the Rockies, and longwave troughing along and east of the Rockies. At the surface, the pressure field across the central plains is quite nebulous, which will support mainly light and variable winds today. Latest guidance indicates 850-mb temperatures will warm by around 5-6 degrees C by this afternoon owing to large-scale subsidence and downsloping 850-mb winds, and this will translate to a noticeable jump in surface temperatures across southwest KS today, with highs in the low 90s. Later this afternoon, some HREF members suggest isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible south and east of Dodge City ahead of weak mid-level perturbations diving southeast where convective inhibition is low. With 1000-2000 J/Kg of MLCAPE and at least 35-45 kts of deep-layer shear in place, any thunderstorms that do develop will pose a large hail and damaging wind gusts risk, however confidence in activity limited. Otherwise, the overnight period will be quiet, with Wednesday morning lows dropping into the 60s and 70s.

Daytime Wednesday, short range ensembles bring a strong upper level shortwave trough from the northern plains southeastward into the upper Midwest by 00Z Thursday, with a cold front extending southwest that will pass through southwest KS during the late morning/early afternoon. Ahead of this boundary, southwesterly downsloping winds will help temperatures rise quickly through the 90s, but there is some uncertainty regarding how much of our area can reach 100 before the cooler post-frontal air arrives. Models have been trending quicker with the front, now showing the front through all but the southeast ~1/4 of our CWA by 18Z. Pre-frontal compression may yield a quick spike in temperatures, however current thinking is most locations will fail to hit 100 before fropa, with only areas along and south of an Ashland to Stafford line reaching the century mark. Thunderstorm activity is also no longer expected in our area as the faster front exits our area before convective inhibition can be sufficiently weakened.

Thursday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles agree the upper level ridge out west will gradually dampen, with flow across the central Rockies into the central plains becoming zonal by early next week. The end result of this evolution will be near- normal temperatures across southwest KS, and consistently non-zero precipitation chances. That said, plenty of disagreement still remains in the spatiotemporal details of any precipitation, so trends will have to be monitored.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1145 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Current light and variable winds will gradually increase out of the south during the afternoon through overnight period, peaking in the 15-20 kt range gusting to 30 kts by early tomorrow morning. Late in the period, a strong cold front will pass through southwest KS, flipping winds to the north that will maintain 15-20 kt intensity.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.