textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front will sag southward across southwest Kansas Tuesday, bringing a wide variety of temperatures, much cooler northwest, much hotter southeast. Temperature forecasts will be a challenge through Thursday.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times, Tuesday night through Thursday night, as the frontal boundary meanders over SW KS and slowly dissolves.

- Afternoon temperatures will be held near August normals through midweek, before the heat rebuilds quickly through the weekend. Expect afternoon temperatures of 100+ by this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Midday surface observations clearly defined the cold front bisecting SW KS, displaying density current tendencies. The cold front was making good southward progress, already reaching Dumas, Texas as of 11am, but the cold front had only reached GCK at the same time. The boundary will continue to sag slowly southeast this afternoon, slowing down some as it encounters increasingly hotter air ahead of it. This process will create a large temperature range across the DDC CWA for midsummer standards, ranging from lower 80s northwest, to near 105 near Kiowa, Barber county. Elevated north winds will spread southward this afternoon and evening, with gusts of 30-40 mph expected. Radar showed scattered light showers or sprinkles along and near the cold front, and kept low pops in this afternoon for this activity.

A shortwave arriving from the Colorado Rockies tonight may generate some scattered rain showers with limited thunder tonight, favoring the northern zones, as shown by the latest NBM pop grids. In the post frontal environment, temperatures will fall easily through the 60s overnight. Widespread post-frontal stratus is also expected, favoring areas along and north of US 50 through sunrise Wednesday.

A challenging temperature forecast for Wednesday afternoon, with model consensus placing the stalled out frontal boundary near or just north of the KS/OK border. Forecast grids will carry only upper 70s along I-70, ranging to the upper 90s adjacent to Oklahoma. Confident this gradient will exist, but precise temperatures in between such as DDC are more difficult. 12z MET forecasts a high of 78 at DDC Wednesday, and 12z MAV forecasts 91. A forecast in the 80s for most locales is appropriate, and will be a nice break from the heat. NAM is usually too cold, but if stratus can hold most of the day, the colder solutions would verify.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated Wednesday night, amid NWly flow aloft, and the frontal boundary returning northward as a warm front with improved moisture. Much more uniform south/southeast winds are forecast Thursday afternoon as the warm front lifts north, with more uniform afternoon temperatures in the 90s. One last opportunity for scattered thunderstorms Thursday night, with NBM pops favoring eastern zones with support from the 12z GFS. A shortwave rounding the northeast periphery of the summer subtropical ridge may help storms organized into a complex, and Thursday night is the best window for strong to marginally severe storms favoring central Kansas.

Friday through next Tuesday, the forecast returns to dry with another several day heatwave expected, as influence from the summer heat dome ridge increases. NBM afternoon temperature grids suggest 97-103 will be common each afternoon, but barring significant rainfall between now and then, the NBM is probably not hot enough in the extended.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 507 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail with some mid level clouds. Winds will generally be from the north thorugh tomorrow.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.