textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Tonight's thunderstorm complex is forecast to track south of last night's system, affecting mainly areas south of a Johnson to Meade line.

- A drying out period Monday and Tuesday with highs upper 90s to around 100 degrees Tuesday afternoon.

- Another cold front with increased chances of thunderstorm activity Wednesday Night/early Thursday, but severe weather and/or heavy rainfall potential is still a bit unclear for southwest Kansas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 148 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Early this afternoon, much of southwest Kansas was cooler and more humid following last night's thunderstorm system. Cooler northeast winds prevailed this afternoon, but these moist winds were become more out of the east toward the Colorado line and on west toward the Front Range of Colorado where tonight's mesoscale convective system (MCS) will develop. Tonight's system will track farther south tonight vs. last night as cloud-bearing 300-500mb winds are more out of the northwest. This, combined with best low level moisture transport vectors from the northern Texas Panhandle into far southeastern Colorado will really favor the Panhandles for tonight's heavy rainfall potential. Thus, much of our southwest Kansas region will likely miss out out more rainfall with the exception of areas generally south of a Johnson to Meade line which is the only area we will carry 60+ POPs tonight.

As we head into Monday and Tuesday, a Pacific jet streak will advance across northern California and Nevada...eventually reaching the Northern Rockies of Idaho, Montana, and northern Wyoming, inducing a leeside trough/surface low well to our north-northwest. As a result, the focus for thunderstorm activity will shift back north into western Nebraska (Monday evening) and across eastern Nebraska and northeastern Kansas Tuesday evening. As southwest Kansas dries out (for those that received 1"+ rain), we will warm back up such that by Tuesday, a return to upper 90s/near 100 degree highs are likely. Given how much rain fell across our western counties (along/west of Highway 83), Tuesday highs will probably fall a little short of 100 degrees, but the humidity could push heat indices above 100 instead.

As we head into Wednesday and beyond, another cold front will push south across Kansas, with perhaps even cooler air than today's front. Much will depend, however, on how much of this cooler air mass is enhanced by remnant convective outflow from a potential large MCS rolling across the northeastern portion of Kansas. After that, global models and ensemble systems are showing a fairly sharp upper level ridge amplification centered across the Rockies with much of Kansas in between the sharp ridge axis and a deep trough axis farther east. This may make temperature forecast a little more difficult for a few days Wednesday through roughly Saturday, depending on if/how strong a backdoor cold front out of the northeast moves into southwest Kansas. The latest ECMWF model shows this ridge flattening with increased hot southwesterly downslope winds from roughly Sunday into the Day 8-10 period, so it would not appear we would be done with 100-degree heat yet.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1141 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Prevailing winds were light out of the north to northeast at the onset of this TAF period, which pushed the effective frontal zone well south into western Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Thus, tonight's expected thunderstorm complex will remain pretty far south, however since dewpoints remain high across southwest Kansas and post-frontal winds become upslope later this afternoon and tonight, the northern periphery of thunderstorm activity could still impact LBL and perhaps even GCK and DDC, so we will keep some PROB30 in the TAF for showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, aviation weather will remain fairly tranquil this period with lingering MVFR stratocumulus clouds thinning out to VFR.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.