textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening, especially east of US-283 where moisture quality is higher.

- Another round of thunderstorms is possible tomorrow, but severity is in question given weak winds aloft.

- Thunderstorm chances continue into the weekend and early next week, with severe chances possible Saturday through Monday.

UPDATE

Issued at 142 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Mesoscale Discussion...

Latest visible satellite imagery shows agitated cumulus have developed over Elkhart and adjacent areas within an area of strong boundary layer mixing west of a dryline near US-283. Short range CAM guidance suggests thunderstorm development in this area is likely in the next 1-2 hours, with additional initiation farther north with time. As convection matures with eastward progression, 0-6km shear approaching 30-35 kts and improving moisture should support a gradually increasing severe threat this afternoon and early evening favoring areas east of a Garden City to Liberal line. Primary severe threat with this activity will be damaging wind gusts, although isolated large hail is also possible especially across our far northeast zones where the highest quality moisture exists.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Midday water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis show shortwave ridging is exiting the High Plains with roughly zonal flow upstream. A weak shortwave trough was also noted ejecting into the central plains, supporting scattered cirrus across southwest KS which is helping to keep temperatures lower than anticipated. That said, strong solar insolation and downsloping winds will push temperatures into the mid/upper 90s quickly within any prolonged cloud breaks. Later this afternoon, HREF members suggest scattered thunderstorm development is likely by 20-21Z, initially across our southwest zones with additional development farther north with time. Southwest KS appears to be on the southern periphery of strong flow aloft, but close enough to foster around 30kts of effective shear amidst 1000-2000 J/Kg of MLCAPE. West of the dryline that is currently near US-283, large dewpoint depressions will limit how much precipitation even reaches the ground, but as convection matures and moisture improves with eastward extent, the threat for damaging wind gusts and large hail will increase. All thunderstorm activity will depart out area by midnight tonight, and the rest of the overnight period will be quiet with lows in the 50s and 60s.

Daytime tomorrow, short range ensembles agree weak zonal flow will be in place atop the central plains, with a stronger belt of flow just to our north from NE into the northern plains. Outflow from the previous day's convection may shave a few degrees off afternoon highs, but temperatures will still peak in the 90s. Another round of thunderstorms is possible tomorrow afternoon as weak upper level perturbations emanating within the flow eject onto the plains, but the aforementioned weak 500-mb winds will limit storm organization.

Over the weekend through mid-next week, medium range ensembles agree upper level longwave troughing will take shape west of the Rockies. As a result, strong cyclogenesis will occur in southeast CO and adjacent areas, with thunderstorms chances from Saturday through Monday, location dependent on the newfound surface low's associated boundaries. At the moment, Monday looks like the most volatile day as a strong vorticity max embedded within the larger parent trough approaches the central plains, however predictability at this range is limited, and any/all day from Saturday through Monday could see severe thunderstorms in our CWA. Otherwise, afternoon highs in the 90s will continue until a strong cold front passes through Monday night bringing much cooler air and highs in the 70s/80s Tuesday through the end of the period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 522 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Mid level clouds will be in place over the next few hours with skies becoming mostly clear. Winds will generally be from the southwest, shifting to the south at less than 10 knots.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ074>078- 084>089.