textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly cloudy skies, afternoon highs in the 80s, and mainly sub-severe thunderstorms are expected today.

- Another day of cloudy skies and highs in the 80s on Thursday, with thunderstorms possible favoring our eastern zones.

- Upper level pattern will amplify over the weekend, bringing warmer temperatures and continued precipitation chances through the long term.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Late evening water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis reveal upper level ridging is in place from the southern/central plains northeastward into the Great Lakes region, with a strong trough skirting the MT/Canada border. At the surface, high pressure centered over Lake Michigan is yielding southeasterly winds across southwest KS. Daytime Wednesday, short range guidance indicates the aforementioned synoptic features will drift eastward while the surface ridge slides southeast. The combination of moist upslope flow and a weak vorticity max ejecting onto the central plains should keep skies mostly cloudy, and afternoon highs will hold in the low to mid 80s. By mid-afternoon, all HREF members suggest scattered thunderstorms will develop over our area within a weakly sheared but unstable environment. The bulk of this activity will be sub-severe, but a few marginally severe hailstones and/or wind gusts cannot be ruled out with the strongest updrafts. Convection may persist into the overnight period as well, supported by a 30-40kt low-level jet, but should gradually decay as the boundary layer stabilizes. Otherwise, Thursday morning lows will drop into the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Daytime Thursday, short range ensembles agree southwest KS will be between modest upper level zonal flow over the northern plains and a weak upper level trough over the southern plains. Persistent cloud cover should once again temper solar insolation enough to keep afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s for most, with some locations near the KS/CO reaching the low 90s where less cloud cover is expected. Another round of afternoon thunderstorms is possible, favoring our eastern zones, however weak deep-layer shear will render any severe threat isolated.

Friday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles agree the synoptic pattern will amplify as troughing takes shape over the western CONUS upstream of ridging along and east of the Rockies. This pattern will favor afternoon highs increasing into the 90s across the central plains as well as non-zero precipitation chances nearly every day, favoring our eastern zones.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 524 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

An isolated thunderstorm may move through the DDC to HYS terminals over the next few hours lowering ceilings. Otherwise expect low clouds throughout the day with some breaks in the afternoon. Winds will generally be from a southerly direction, gusting to over 20 knots late morning into the afternoon.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.