textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- A variety of temperatures Sunday afternoon as frontal boundary bisects SW KS, and low clouds erode.

- Unseasonably hot with near record highs Monday; strong southwest winds gusting over 40 mph.

- Next cold front arrives Tuesday, providing another strong temperature gradient.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected behind the cold front Tuesday night; some storms may be strong and produce locally heavy rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Midday satellite imagery depicted remaining stratus dissolving rapidly, and surface observations outlined the warm front making quick progress northward into Kansas. Expecting a large temperature gradient to result by 4 pm, ranging from 80 north to near 100 along the Oklahoma border. Mesoanalysis outlined significant instability south of the warm front, and 12z NAM forecasts CAPE to reach near 3000 J/kg by peak heating, supported by dewpoints well into the 60s. Models have also reduced the amount of convective inhibition at peak heating, with 700 mb temperatures a tad cooler. As such, there will likely be at least an attempt at an isolated thunderstorm Sunday evening, particularly toward sunset as the low level jet ramps up. 12z NAM/ARW suggests this may be near DDC, but with very little confidence, the forecast is dry (pops < 15%). The low level jet will keep south winds elevated through Monday morning, with many locations remaining above 70 degrees.

Monday will be the hottest day of this forecast period, with record highs for September 14th likely. The numbers to beat at the three climate sites are DDC 100/2017, GCK 101/1955, P28 104/1911. Pressure gradients will support strong southwest winds Monday midday and afternoon, and wind grids follow the strongest guidance. 12z MAV forecasts 30 mph sustained winds Monday across much of SW KS, with a well mixed boundary layer supporting gusts of 40-45 mph. Downslope compression will encourage temperatures to reach record levels. Heat indices will be near heat advisory criteria (105) for a few hours Monday afternoon, but not sufficient for an advisory at this time.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the lee trough after 4 pm Monday, from Baca county Colorado to the northwest zones. NBM pops favoring the northwest zones were accepted. A hot mixed boundary layer coupled with strong ambient synoptic winds will promote a primary risk of outflow winds to near 60 mph, supporting SPC's 5% marginal wind probability northern zones.

A rather strong cold front for September standards is forecast to arrive in NW KS Tuesday morning, with 12z NAM showing a sharp cold frontal passage southward through SW KS daylight Tuesday. Emanating from a 1025 mb surface high over Nebraska, northeast winds will be quite strong by late Tuesday, well above NBM guidance. Temperature forecasting for any specific location Tuesday will be very difficult, with even the NBM depicting an impressive 30 degree gradient across the DDC CWA (near 70 north, near 100 south). Exact high temperatures in between could really be anything based on frontal timing, with a non-diurnal curve downward in the afternoon after frontal passage. Getting more fall-like!

Thunderstorms are expected to easily develop along the sharp frontal boundary Tuesday afternoon. It is expected for SPC severe probabilities for wind/hail to increase some for Tuesday, although models currently suggest instability may be limited along the strong convergence zone. Trends continue to suggest more widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night, as overrunning/warm air advection initiate north of the front. NBM pops remain likely to categorical (60-80%) and these were accepted. Some significant rainfall totals are possible Tuesday night.

Wednesday and Thursday, expectation is for the frontal boundary to retreat northward again, as a trough enters the Pacific NW, and the strong 598 dm ridge remains anchored over the Mississippi valley. Elevated south winds and above normal temperatures are expected to prevail in this synoptic regime. Any thunderstorms Wednesday/Thursday evenings would favor the northwest zones, furthest from the influence of the sprawling upper ridge.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 500 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR is expected through the TAF pd. A 40-50 kt LLJ will promote LLWS across the terminals during the overnight hours. The high plains lee trough will deepen Monday across Colorado. This will result it winds becoming strong and gusty. Expect S to SW winds around 25 kt with gusts in the 35 to 40 kt range through much of the day tomorrow. Storm activity looks to remain west of the terminals tomorrow night.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.