textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly cloudy skies will keep temperatures in the upper 60s west to upper 70s east, along with showers and thunderstorms moving into western KS by late afternoon/early evening.

- Precipitation will continue into Sunday and perhaps Monday/Tuesday, with areas along and west of US-83 receiving the most rainfall.

- Much more seasonable temperatures are expected in the wake of the precipitation event, with highs in the 60s to low 70s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1130 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis late Friday evening reveal a strong longwave trough along and west of the Rockies, with a high-amplitude ridge downstream extending from the ArkLaTex region northward through the upper Midwest. At the surface, southwest KS resides between broad high pressure over much of the eastern CONUS and a ~997-mb low reaching from its center in south- central Canada southward into the central plains. Through the remainder of the overnight period, a secondary, weaker lee trough will develop in eastern CO/far western KS, which should result in weakening southerly winds. However, this will not occur until near sunrise, allowing winds to remain elevated much of the night and holding Saturday morning lows in the upper 50s/near 60. Daytime Saturday, the aforementioned strong upper low will inch eastward towards the Four Corners region. As DPVA increases over the central plains, widespread showers and thunderstorms will form in eastern CO and propagate into western KS by late afternoon/early evening. High resolution guidance suggests this activity will remain limited to areas along and west of US-83, and will pose no severe threat owing to negligible instability. Precipitation will gradually taper off overnight, with only scattered light rain showers by Sunday morning.

Daytime Sunday, some disagreement between the HREF members and the global ensembles emerge as the core of the low pressure system aloft advances towards the central Rockies. HREF members indicate training showers with a few thunderstorms will move south-southwest to north- northeast through much of the day Sunday, but this is in contrast to both the ECMWF ENS and GEFS which confine the bulk of the precipitation again to areas along and west of US-83. Given the trend over the last couple days in the global ensembles has been a slower, farther west solution with the largest precipitation amounts, this scenario will be favored.

Medium range ensembles suggest precipitation may linger into Monday and perhaps even Tuesday as the upper low takes its sweet time ejecting onto the plains, and a secondary shortwave trough moves across the northern plains. Ensemble total precipitation fields once all is said and done range from 0.5-1.5" along and west of a Wakeeney to Liberal line, with locally higher amounts to 2" possible, and 0.1-0.5" to the east of this line. The remainder of the forecast period will feature much more seasonable temperatures with highs in the 60s and low 70s, and little to no precipitation chances until the end of the business week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1130 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR flying conditions this TAF cycle for all terminals. Current southerly winds in the 10-15 kt range gusting to 25 kts will gradually weaken overnight to aoa 12 kts by sunrise Saturday morning. After sunset, winds will weaken further to light and variable.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.