textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong cold front races through southwest Kansas Friday followed by strong north winds gusting near 50 mph, and falling temperatures.

- A light freeze is expected across much of southwest Kansas Saturday and Sunday mornings, with sunrise temperatures of 28-32 common.

- After a seasonably cool Saturday, another rapid warming trend is expected Sunday through Tuesday.

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry for at least another week, through April 23.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Temperatures are quickly warming up currently. Red Flag conditionsare still expected and on track for this afternoon. Do not burn! Otherwise, a south to southwest wind is expected through the overnight hours. This will help keep minimums up with 40s in the northwest to 60s in the southeast.

Attention then turns to tomorrow morning. A relatively strong cold front will quickly traverse the region in the morning. Gusty northerly winds are expected in its wake. Have collaborated with the neighbor NWS offices to go with cooler highs with the faster moving front tomorrow. Going with around 60F in the northwest zones, upper 60s to lower 70s across the central zones, and the warmest with lower 80s across south- central Kansas. Since the front is moving faster, the warm sector will be displaced farther southeast and east. As a result, any severe thunderstorm activity will mostly miss the FA. Have some pops mainly across Barber county during the afternoon and evening. The ARW has the front farther south into Oklahoma, so there is the possibility that all the storm activity will remain clear of the FA. If storms do form in the far SE, they could become severe, but should quickly exit the FA in a short time period. Long story short... looks like an overall quiet weather day Friday. Some good news is that with the faster moving front, the fire danger should be negated with increasing afternoon relative humidities in the post- frontal environment.

Attention then turns to Saturday and Sunday mornings. Have added 3 more counties in the freeze watch based off the latest NBM minimum temperatures for Saturday morning. Be sure to cover any plants given forecast lows in the upper 20s across the northwest zones and around freezing farther to the southeast. Another freeze is possible Sunday morning, and a freeze headline may be needed in the future. Otherwise, a tranquil weather pattern is expected over the weekend highs in the 60s on Saturday and 70s on Sunday.

The next business week is looking to feature upper level ridging. Both the GEFS and ENS ensembles are dry for next week. Highs will trend to be above normal as we continue forward through the rest of the business week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 430 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

VFR will continue through this TAF period, with variable amounts of cirrus. Elevated to strong southwest winds, gusting 30-35 kts as of 2130z, will diminish some at sunset. South winds will remain elevated through much of the night, as the boundary layer remains mixed with a low level jet. Mentioned associated low level wind shear in the TAFs tonight. Surface winds will veer westerly around sunrise. Strong dry cold front will race through the airports 12-15z Fri, with winds becoming northerly. North winds will increase with time, impacting aviation operations daylight Friday, gusting 40-45 kts after 18z Fri.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Red Flag conditions are still on track for today. Do not burn! Afast moving front is expected in the morning. Afternoon relative humidities will increase during the afternoon in the post-frontal environment. Thus, no fire weather headlines are expected for Friday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>087.