textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Low stratus clouds and periods of drizzle will continue through Halloween into Sunday morning .

- Strong south winds Sunday and Monday with warmer temperatures.

- A strong cold front arrives with strong north winds Monday night.

- Widespread wind-blown rain Tuesday, with north winds gusting 50-60 mph.

- Still no freezes expected through at least November 7th.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Midday radar imagery depicted widespread light rain across eastern zones, ahead of one last trailing shortwave. Otherwise stratus was widespread across all of SW KS, and stratus is expected to hold through this afternoon, tonight and into Sunday morning. Once the final exiting shortwave departs this afternoon, only some patchy drizzle will remain through tonight. NBM temperatures this afternoon were several degrees too warm in the stratus and drizzle/wet soils; many location will remain in the 50s.

Stratus will persist through tonight. Stratus and areas of fog and/or drizzle will work against radiational cooling, with temperatures slowly falling through the 50s most of tonight at most locations. The mild fall continues; the normal sunrise temperatures for the first morning of November is mid to upper 30s.

Two strong shortwaves from the polar and subtropical jet streams are consistently forecast by the models to merge into one strong closed midlevel cyclone over the Great Basin by 6 pm Sunday. Ridge axis passing overhead 6 am Sunday will move east quickly, with SWly midlevel flow establishing quickly Sunday afternoon. South winds will respond rapidly, averaging 20-30 mph with gusts near 40 mph Sunday afternoon. Despite the improved mixing, and 2-3C of warming at 850 mb, strong moisture advection will keep the boundary layer saturated, or nearly so, through Sunday afternoon, with stratus prevailing. As such, coordinated with neighbors to reduce NBM temperatures 2-3 degrees for Sunday. By the same token, Sunday night and Monday morning will be unseasonably mild beneath the strong low level jet, struggling to below 60 degrees (normal is mid 30s).

Incoming strong trough is modelled to be quite progressive, reaching the Four Corners 6 am Monday, and near Elkhart 6 pm Monday. Elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected to accompany a strong low level jet Sunday night/early Monday, and these NBM pops up to the likely category were accepted. The cyclone's dry slot is expected to keep most of SW KS dry for most of Monday, with elevated strong to southwest winds. Given some insolation, afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 70s look reasonable.

Surface and midlevel cyclones will reach the Medicine Lodge vicinity by 6 am Tuesday, allowing the strong cold front to race through SW KS Monday night with intense north winds. Nocturnal timing will reduce momentum transfer some, but NBM winds Monday night are too weak. NW winds in the grids for Garden City at midnight are about 1/2 of the projected values from the 12z MAV (30 kts sustained, versus 15 kts NBM). The strongest north winds from this system are expected immediately after mixing is achieved midmorning to midday Tuesday, when 850 mb winds near 2k ft AGL are 50-60 mph. Early Tuesday is most likely when high wind warning criteria will be achieved, and this wind will be accompanied by widespread wind-blown rain in the cyclone's deformation. NBM pops do look plausible here with the rain early Tuesday, in the likely to definite category (70-90%). Given the progressive nature of the parent trough, and the short residency time, rain amounts Monday night through early Tuesday should be restricted to less than 1/2 inch for most of SW KS. Strong northwest winds persist Tuesday, with temperatures reduced to the 50s.

Weak high pressure ridging arrives Tuesday night, allowing for much more seasonable temperatures in the mid 30s to near 40 Wednesday morning, but this incoming cool air mass is of Pacific origin, and will not be cold enough for a widespread frost or freeze.

Dry quiet pleasant fall weather is expected Wednesday through Friday, along with temperatures not too far away from early November normals. The next shortwave trough will likely bring the next round of rain next Saturday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1022 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

High confidence that flight categories will remain degraded through this TAF period, with widespread IFR/LIFR stratus. Drizzle will be limited, but some modest surface visibility reductions in BR are likely, especially near sunrise Sunday. Light southeast winds will prevail through the period. After 15z Sun, stronger south winds are expected at all airports, averaging 20-30 kts, with gusts near 35 kts.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.