textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- There will be a chance for light snow overnight (30-60% west of Highway 283) with minor accumulations (less than 1/2 inch) possible.

- Another round of dangerously cold wind chills (10 to 20 degrees below zero) is expected tonight.

- Warmer temperatures return to southwest Kansas during the first half of the work week but another shot of colder air will take aim on the area late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

One upper level trough was moving east into central Kansas earlier this morning, while another upper level system was moving south across Wyoming. At the surface, a cold front extended from west to east across eastern Wyoming into central Nebraska.

The surface cold front will cross western Kansas early tonight as the Wyoming upper level trough moves into the Central Plains. Ahead of this upper wave, some mid level moisture will be present which will bring an increase in clouds late in the day followed by a chance for light snow tonight as the cold front and upper trough pass. Cold 500mb temperatures and the left exit region of an upper level jet will provide decent lift with this upper wave, but limited moisture will keep snowfall amounts light, generally less than 1/2 inch. The best chance for minor accumulation will be west of Highway 83.

Along with a chance for light snow, another shot of colder air will arrive tonight. A surface high crossing southwest Kansas will usher in a new push of cold air behind the departing cold front. With expected north winds overnight and temperatures falling back to zero or below, wind chill values will drop into the 10 to 15 degrees below zero range once again. The current cold weather advisory remains in effect for tonight.

For Monday, similar to earlier today, subsidence will develop behind the upper trough as it exits western Kansas. Surface high pressure will also quickly move into Oklahoma early in the day as an improving westerly downslope flow develops. This will bring warmer temperatures back to southwest Kansas by Monday afternoon despite a bitter cold start to the day with sub zero temperatures. Afternoon highs will be a little tricky due to some lingering snow cover. However, there will be less snow cover on Monday compared to today (Sunday) and given the forecast for warming 950-850mb temperatures, highs should rebound into the low to mid 30s for many locations. The exception will be areas east of Highway 283, where higher snowfall occurred over the weekend.

Early next week, a northwest flow will be present over the Central Plains as another upper level trough moves out of Canada and into the Great Lakes Region. This will send another cold front south into the Central Plains on Tuesday, but the better push of this next cold air will be focused further east. Given this less of this colder air is expected to spread into western Kansas. Also what colder air that does arrive early Tuesday is forecast to erode quickly during the day as an upper level ridge moves east across the western United States and the downslope flow improves.

Ensemble clusters show good agreement for the last half of the work week. The upper ridge that will be located west of the Rockies mid week will weaken as the next upper level trough rotates around this ridge axis. This upper level system will then drop south into the Plains late in the week. This pattern favors a brief mid week warmup as the ridge weakens and westerly flow improves across the Rockies. Afterward, colder temperatures will return to western Kansas as another cold front crosses western Kansas as the upper level trough passes late week. We will also monitor the potential for light snow late next week as this next upper level system passes. Currently, the chances appear low late week (less than 20%), but it warrants monitoring. There is a better chance (>70%) that low temperatures will fall back into the single digits Saturday morning.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1113 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Predominantly VFR, with some moments of MVFR and IFR conditions, will be possible as light snow moves through this morning with lowered clouds and some lower areas of visibility. VFR conditions will return by the morning hours behind the snow. Winds will be light overnight, shifting west to southwest throughout the the day and increasing.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Monday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.