textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Early Autumn warmth expected across southwest Kansas through the weekend period. Highs through the weekend will be in the 80s with lows in the 50s.

- The chance for precipitation will return to southwest Kansas early next week along with cooler temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

This Monday morning an upper level ridge was located over the western United States with a northwest early flow aloft across the Plains. A surface ridge extended from southwest Kansas into Iowa a a trough of low pressure at the surface develops along the lee of the Rockies. Models are in good agreement today with the upper ridge remaining over the western United States early in the week as a weak cold front drops south into the Central Plains Tuesday night. This cold front will lift back north towards Nebraska on Wednesday as the west to northwest flow aloft continues across western Kansas. During the last half of the work week the upper level ridge will move east and weaken as an upper level trough exits the eastern Pacific and begins to cross the Pacific Northwest. Given the persistent northwest to westerly flow and upper ridge moving east and weakening through the start of the weekend period the temperatures across southwest Kansas will be near or slightly above the seasonal norms for early October with no precipitation expected despite the weak cold front mid week. This period of warm and dry conditions however will be ending by the beginning of next week as the upper level trough over the Pacific northwest approaches from the west late this weekend/early next week will deepen and move east across the western United States.

Early Autumn warmth expected across southwest Kansas through the weekend period. 850mb temperatures will warm into the 20 to around 25C range on Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front which will allow temperatures to warm well into the 80s on Tuesday. The cold front will move into southwest Kansas and stall out Tuesday night before lifting back north Wednesday. South of this boundary the temperatures on Wednesday will still be unseasonably warm (Highs in the low to mid 80s) while north of this boundary the high temperatures will end up being more seasonal (Highs around 80). What cooler, more seasonal, air that does filter into southwest Kansas on Wednesday will erode from south to north as this cold front lifts north back into northern Kansas as a west to northwest downslope flow continues across western Kansas. Given this downslope flow and the forecast 850mb temperatures each afternoon late week the high temperatures are not expected to vary much from earlier in the week. Highs at least in the 80 to 85 degree range late week.

Looking ahead to next week, we are currently monitoring the chances for precipitation early next week along with some cooler temperatures. Models this morning appear to be struggling with the timing and evolution of our next, significant, upper level system as it moves across the western Untied States and deepens. Forecast confidence from Sunday through early next week is low (<30%) but at this time based on the latest ensemble trends the westerly downslope flow late week across the Rockies will back to the southwest by late this weekend. As this occurs the chance for precipitation will begin to improve as out next cold front drops south across the Northern Plains. The combination of the approaching upper level system along with the cold front crossing southwest Kansas will result in improving chances for precipitation. When this will actually occur however is unclear so will stay close to the latest forecast with rain chances improving on Monday as cooler air returns with the cold frontal passage.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 500 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

VFR is expected through TAF pd as a dry airmass continues across the terminals. Light SE/S 5-10 kt winds will continue through the overnight. These winds will become SW 11-17 kt during the daytime hours and become a little stronger and gusty (~ 20 kt). Winds will become light SE/S by dusk tomorrow night.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.