textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected along the I-70 corridor this evening.

- Isolated severe t-storms are forecast across central Kansas for Sunday and Monday evenings.

- Expect strong southwest winds Sunday and Monday afternoons, with enhanced fire weather concerns.

- Hot weather will persist through Monday, with cooler conditions for Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 102 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Today's thunderstorm forecast is rather complicated and depends on how much low level moisture wraps around a thermal low over the southern high plains. Also, the location of a frontal zone where winds change from southerly to easterly is in question. Given moderately high cloud bases and long, straight hodographs, damaging bow echoes are possible after any short-lived supercells with very large hail grow upscale, with winds up to 70 mph being the primary concern, along with hail. The day 1 outlook from SPC indicates a slight risk for damaging winds and hail, with best chances along I-70. Storms will form in northwest Kansas by 5 pm and then sweep across the I-70 corridor between 6 and 10 pm. Isolated storms can't be ruled out father south if the boundary stays across southwest Kansas. Additionally, a 50 kt low level jet will form in the evening around 8 pm and this could help in storm organization and severity. Winds will start out on the light side in the afternoon but then increase to 25 kts by dark.

On Sunday, an upper level storm will be digging into the Rockies. A dry line is expected to be situated from Hays to Dodge City to Ashland in the afternoon. Isolated t-storm formation is likely given the strong heating along the dry line and lack of low cloudiness ahead of the dry line. The SPC outlook indicates a conditions risk for supercell storms with large hail, with a sharp cutoff in severe storm chances near the 100th meridian (near Dodge City and WaKeeney). Hot and dry conditions are forecast from Dodge City westward, with southwest winds gusting to 45 mph and humidity around 5%. Highs could reach into the upper 90s.

A strong upper level trough will approach the high plains Monday afternoon, with a moist air mass in place east of Dodge City. Isolated t-storms are again possible and these could be severe with very large hail. However, there is still uncertainty in how far west storms ignite. Dry, windy and hot weather can be expected west of the dryline with highs in the mid 90s.

A cold front will race across western Kansas Monday evening and night. A line of storms could form along the front over central Kansas, with places like Larned and Stafford having the best chances. A very strong pressure gradient will exist behind the cold front, with winds gusting up to 50-60+ mph. Cooler weather is predicted for Tuesday, with highs in the lower to mid 70s.

Rain chances increase by Tuesday night and Wednesday as upper level troughing develops across the central and northern Rockies, with cool post frontal upslope over southwest Kansas. The various ensemble suites have been inconsistent with this pattern over the last several days, and this leads to below average forecast confidence. However, any substantial rains will be convective in nature and hence scattered, with the grand ensemble showing 24 hr chances of .25" or greater of rain only 10-20%.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Generally light winds will prevail through 00z. However, a low level jet will form by 01-02z, with surface winds gusting to 35 kts through the end of the period (with the exception of KHYS). There is a small chance (10-30%) of thunderstorms at the KHYS terminal after 23z, with wind gusts 40-50 kts possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 102 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are likely from Dodge City and Meade westward on Sunday and Monday afternoons and evenings, with southwesterly wind gusts of 45 mph and extremely low humidity in the 5 to 10% range. A wind shift to the northwest is predicted for Monday evening and night, with gusts to 60 mph possible. Thus, the fire weather risk may not taper off Monday evening like it normally does after sunset.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for KSZ061>064-074>078-084>088.