textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Very strong winds and high fire danger Tuesday

- More fire danger Wednesday

- Cooler Thursday and beyond

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1111 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

A strong 40-50 kt LLJ will continue through the overnight hours. This will lead to S/SW sfc winds continuing through the morning as well. This will result in incredibly mild lows tonight with values ranging from the upper 40s in the north to the lower 50s in the south. This is well above normal with the typical values running in the 20s for this time of the year.

Attention then turns to Tuesday. A strong 150-160 kt 250 hPa jet will swing out across the Great Plains. This will result in rapid cyclogenesis with a sfc low deepening across the greater region. The combination of the strong sfc low and mixing will result in very strong winds tomorrow. S to SW winds will blow 30 to 40 mph with gusts over 50 mph. Gusts in the 60s will be likely across a good portion of the FA. For more information on winds, please refer to the High Wind Warning that is in effect. Blowing dust and lower visibility will also be possible tomorrow.

The combination of the strong winds, well above normal highs, and low relative humidity will result in Red Flag conditions Tuesday. Do not burn as any fire could become quickly out of control. Please see the Red Flag Warning that is in effect for more information on the fire danger for tomorrow.

For Wednesday, it will still be warm (although not as warm as Tuesday). Highs should range from the upper 60s in the north to the lower 70s in the south. Winds will not be as strong Wednesday but still remain on the breezy side. This will result in another day of high fire danger. The lowest relative humidity is expected across the southwest/west zones. See the fire weather headline that is currently in effect for more information on the fire danger for Wednesday.

A strong cold front will move across the FA Thursday. This will result with highs in the upper 40s in the north to the 50s in the south. Right now the models and their ensemble counterparts are trending drier with the fropa. The main impact will be temperatures as well as an end to the fire danger by Thursday and Friday. The weekend is looking fair and quiet. Highs in the 50s and lows in the 20s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1111 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

A strong LLJ will promote LLWS through the overnight period. VFR is expected through TAF pd. It should be noted that the air quality model is forecasting dust for tomorrow. Have gone with 6 sm miles and BLDU. The winds will be very strong tomorrow and there is a chance that visibilities could be even lower. Don't have high confidence though on exactly how low vis will get. Otherwise, winds are the main concern for tomorrow. Very strong SW to W winds of 30-40 kt with gusts 50+ kt likely.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1111 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Highs Tuesday will be about 30 degrees above normal. Intense cyclogenesis and mixing will result in very strong winds as well. The combination of the warm and dry airmass and the winds will result in red flag conditions Tuesday. Do not burn! It will be a little cooler Wednesday, however, temperatures will still be above normal. With the continued dry airmass and breezy winds, another day of high fire danger is possible Wednesday. Please see fire weather headlines for more information.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CST /10 AM MST/ to 8 PM CST /7 PM MST/ Tuesday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. High Wind Warning from noon CST /11 AM MST/ to 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ Tuesday for KSZ043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for KSZ061>063-074>077-084>087.