textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- The long stretch of hot afternoons will continue for the next several days, with afternoon temperatures of 98-103 common. A heat advisory remains in effect east of US 283, where higher humidity will push the heat index to near 105 each afternoon.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will favor the northwest zones Saturday evening, where some may be strong to marginally severe. Wind gusts of 45-60 mph will be the primary hazard.

- Hot afternoons will continue all week, but a cold front may finally offer some heat relief next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1123 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

An upper-level high continues to take up nearly the CONUS to make up the most of the synoptic pattern. The only other notable aspect continues to be a very deep low pressure system over the Pacific Northwest. Nearer to the surface, weak low pressure continues to persist across SW Kansas. Weak storms have festered for the last few hours with sub-severe storms as forecast. In regards to ongoing headlines, a Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Highway 183 corridor and eastward until 8 PM Sunday.

Saturday will continue the pattern of very hot temperatures and storm potential out west. Highs are forecast around 100 degrees with apparent temperatures approaching 105 degrees in the eastern zones. The focus on the forecast tomorrow is the storm chances. It is expected to represent Friday's storms very similarly. Around 0Z, storms are expected to develop and move out of Colorado. A marginal risk is in effect for the far northwest counties. It is expected that most, if not all of the storms, remain sub-severe similar to Friday. Forecast NAM soundings have held firm progging 1200 J/kg CAPE, 20 KTs shear, and low level lapse rates of 10 C/km. It seems unlikely that storms will be able to organize and mature to become severe, but a few severe winds gusts remain possible.

Sunday through Tuesday will keep the heat, but with a near zero chance for storms (<5% via ensembles). The days are forecast to be a degree or two cooler than Friday/Saturday, but highs are still forecast in the upper 90s and tangibly the difference won't be noticed.

Tuesday night/Wednesday morning will be the next good chance for precipitation. That said, ensembles have been trending drier and farther northwest, now only covering the northwest portion of the CWA up to around a 25% chance for storms. Early indication is that these storms will remain sub-severe, but that is subject to change. After Tuesday, the pattern of hot highs and small storm chances out west continues through the remainder of the forecast period. Fire weather conditions may remain elevated with a strong south wind, especially sunday, of up to 20 mph and gusts up to 25-30. However, relative humidities will remain well above 20% and stay away from any fire weather headline criteria. With that in mind, traditional fire weather precautions are always advised.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 438 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Good flying weather will continue to prevail through this TAF period, with VFR, varying amounts of mid/high cloud, and light winds. After 15z Sat, south to southeast winds will gust 20-23 kts at all airports. Airports are expected to remain dry through 00z Sun. Any scattered thunderstorms are expected to favor the GCK vicinity Saturday evening, where a VCTS/CB mention was included around 03z Sun.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ031-046-065-066- 079>081-089-090.