textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- A Freeze Warning is in effect from 1 AM CDT to 9 AM CDT with Temperatures as low as 27 degrees.

- Near Critical to Critical Fire Weather Conditions Today and Sunday. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of southwest Kansas Sunday.

- Unseasonably Warm and Dry Conditions Next Week. Highs will warm through the 80s early in the week with highs in the upper 80s and even a few 90s possible Wednesday and Thursday.

- Dangerous fire weather conditions possible during the first half of next week, especially west of highway 283.

- Low chances for precipitation return late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

The synoptic pattern remains relatively unchanged with ridging at the coasts of the CONUS and a deep trough tilted westward with height over the USA/Canada border. The strong CAA from the day with gusty northwest winds is finally dying down. Weak high pressure has built overhead of the CWA as winds continue to weaken to light and variable. Despite the CAA dialing back, radiational cooling is forecast to drop much of the CWA near or below freezing. Reflecting this there is a Freeze Warning in effect from 1 AM CDT to 9 AM CDT. Temperatures may drop as low as 27 degrees, especially in the northwestern counties. Winds overnight will be light and variable.

Winds will greatly strengthen out of the southwest after sunrise to around 20-30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. With downsloping winds, highs will sharply jump into the 70s towards 80 degrees. Combined with the dry air, relative humidity minimums will be between 5-15% CWA wide. As a result a Red Flag Warning is in effect from noon to 8 PM CDT where the winds/gusts will exceed criteria.

Monday and Tuesday will be very similar to each other. Highs are forecast to jump up to 80s and continued very low relative humidities in the western counties. Winds will need to be monitored as Monday is close to criteria with gusts just over and Tuesday the winds fall just short. If this forecast holds into the morning forecast cycle, Monday will need another Red Flag Warning.

On Wednesday, areas west of Highway 83 have a 40-60% chance of seeing highs of 90 degree highs are higher. Winds will again be moderate of 20-25 mph with gusts exceeding 35 mph. Areas in western Kansas are expected to be dry and windy enough for a fire weather headline in the coming days.

Longer ranged ensembles have a system moving across the CONUS Wednesday into Thursday bringing non-zero chances for precipitation (10-20%) although there is little to no run to run continuity and little stock should be help in those number. More certainly, highs Friday onward will be much cooler in the upper 60s and lower 70s through the weekend. Until the resolution of the system, no active weather is expected into next week besides fire weather risk. Take the proper fire weather precautions whether exact criteria is met or not while handling ignition sources extremely carefully.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 522 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail today with a few high clouds. Winds will generally be from the southwest, gusting to over 30 knots late morning into this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

On Sunday...Low humidity values will still be present across southwest Kansas on Sunday as warmer air spreads into the area due to improving downslope flow. This will again result in afternoon humidity values at or below 15% for all of southwest Kansas. In addition to these low humidity values, the winds will be stronger due to a tightening pressure gradient across southwest Kansas during the day. Short term models show a greater than 70% chance for wind gusts to exceed 25 mph, and given this confidence, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for much of southwest Kansas Sunday afternoon. The exception will be portions of northern and possibly west-central Kansas. The reason is that a weak cold front is forecast to drop south into this area by early afternoon, and as a result, the winds are not expected to be as strong there.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>065-074>077-084>087. Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ063-064-074>078-084>088.