textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight chance of storms this afternoon; severe weather conditional

- Hot temperatures Friday and for the Fourth of July

- Thunderstorms possible again Saturday; isolated to widely scattered severe storms possible

DISCUSSION

Issued at 116 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

A hot summer day is on tap for today with temperatures climbing into the upper 90s to low 100s across much of the forecast area. Triple digit heat is most likely in western zones and along the KS/CO border areas. Breezy southerly winds will once again be expected across the forecast area. As for storm chances, coverage is expected to be low, even more so than previous days. However, if storms are able to develop, they could be locally severe. The primary hazard will be damaging downburst winds given CAM forecast soundings depicting steep 0-3 and 3-6 km lapse rates of 8-10 C/km. A few instances of hail larger than 1" will be possible in the more robust and sustained updrafts with MUCAPE greater than 3,000 J/kg. Any storm that does develop will diminish in intensity into the late evening.

Hot temperatures are still expected for Fourth of July festivities, with Saturday forecast high temperatures once again likely in the upper 90s to low 100s. The hottest temperatures will reside along the KS/OK border area. Heat indices both Friday and Saturday should stay below Heat Advisory criteria, but with more outdoor activities around the holiday, we still urge folks to take heat related precautions.

Saturday's severe risk and potential storm placement will be contingent on thunderstorm progression and evolution Friday night and early Saturday morning. Some guidance is suggesting a focus for thunderstorm development will be along a remnant outflow/differential heating boundary. Models differ where this will exactly set up, but somewhere across central Kansas seems probable. With increasing effective bulk shear, some storm organization will be possible. Shear may be supportive of initial supercell development, with large hail being the initial risk. Into the evening, upscale growth is possible leading to more of a damaging wind risk.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1108 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

A few scattered rain showers remain across southwest and central Kansas to start the period, but that activity has largely is east of GCK, LBL, and DDC. HYS has a chance of showers, but coverage is minimal. Some LLWS may also start the period with the increase of the low-level jet, so made mention in the TAF at some sites. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Southerly winds will once again be breezy 10-20 knots with higher gusts up to 30 knots. There is a slight chance of storms developing Friday afternoon, but coverage is expected to be low. Therefore no mention in the TAFs at this point.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.