textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Overnight/early morning patchy fog possible especially around Garden City.

- A weak wind shift forecast overnight going from southwest winds to northeast winds. Windy conditions appearing more and more likely this weekend.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures with highs in the mid-80s through the weekend. - The chance for precipitation will return to southwest Kansas early next week along with some cooler temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1132 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

The synoptic pattern aloft is primarily zonal with a weak upper- level high pressure system centered over Colorado. This zonal flow is held by ensembles for a week until at least early next week with troughing near the west coast. That system appears at this point to be the only chance for >5% precipitation until it arrives. In the meantime, a very consistent pattern of seasonably warm and dry weather across SW Kansas.

Lows tonight are forecast to be in the mid-to-upper 50s. Winds in the overnight will stay mostly light tonight with the southwest winds shifting to out of the northeast around 16Z as a subtle boundary crawls across the CWA. The HRRR has fog developing around 4- 7 AM around Garden City. It is interesting that this only is present in the very localized area, but fog development can not be ruled out especially in fog-prone areas to night. Occasionally fog can be underrepresented in models in marginal setups, so it will need to be monitored into the night and early morning. If fog does develop, take proper travel precautions. Any fog should clear quickly after sunrise.

Tomorrow is forecast to see highs in the mid-80s. This is around 10 degrees warmer than average for this time of year across SW Kansas. Highs of around the mid-80s will be present all week until at least Monday next week. Tuesday night will be in a similar fog environment as tonight, so if fog is able to develop tonight, the expectation is that more fog will be present tomorrow night. Beyond the fog, no active weather or weather headlines are forecast until at least early next week with the pattern change. The weekend is forecast to have breezy winds of 20-25 mph out of the south, but not abnormal for SW Kansas. Relative humidities should stay high enough to prevent much of an increased fire weather risk. However, as always take precautions with ignition sources especially as the vegetation dries out.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1132 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. The exception would be if any fog is able to develop through the overnight. The HRRR has a tiny pocket of lowered visibilities owing to fog around 10- 14Z at GCK and a TEMPO group has been added to reflect that. Little fog signal is present so uncertainty is high, and can not be ruled out for any of the TAF sites. Monitor for future TAFs/updates. Otherwise skies will be clear to mostly clear. Winds will be light (around 5 KTs) out of the southwest to start and become variable with a weak boundary shifting winds to out of the northeast around 12-18Z.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.