textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Milder weather can be expected, although the snow cover will delay the warming for some.

- Dry weather is forecast for the next week to ten days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Over the coming days the upper level pattern will revert back to a deep trough over the eastern third of the country and a ridge over the western United States. Given the amplified pattern, expect southwest Kansas to be along the western periphery of any cold surges, with the brunt of the colder air staying well north and east. Any cold surges will be very brief, with downslope flow quickly developing on the back side of the cold surface high pressure systems. Warmer temperatures are forecast starting today as westerly downslope winds persist. Locations with a bare ground (Hays and Medicine Lodge) will easily warm into the 50s today, with cooler 30s and 40s elsewhere. Locations with deeper snow cover (Ulysses for example) will likely stay in the mid to upper 30s for highs today given the high albedo of the snow, with 80-95% of sunlight reflected instead of absorbed by the earth's surface. In places like Medicine Lodge and Hays with a bare ground, daytime solar absorption will be much higher--hence warmer afternoon readings.

Downslope flow will develop Tuesday, which in the absence of snow cover and melting would normally result in upper 50s and 60s for highs. However, locations in far southwest Kansas that still have remnant snow cover and a wet ground may only reach into the 40s and 50s. In other words, there may be an island of cooler air surrounded by warmer readings. A cold front will knock temperatures back closer to seasonal averages for Wednesday and then again Friday and Saturday. In between, expect above average temperatures with highs in the 50s for Thursday.

Given the aforementioned upper level pattern, expect precipitation chances to be near 0% for the next week to ten days. This is supported by the various ensemble means that are dry.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 540 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Surface high pressure will slowly move off to the east today. Light west winds at 10-12 kts or less will persist. VFR conditions are forecast through the period.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.