textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer than normal Friday and Saturday

- Dramatically colder Sunday with very strong winds; north winds up to 45-55 mph and gusts potentially up to 60 mph

- Trending warmer next week and potentially exceeding 90 degrees by the end of the work week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1157 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Primarily zonal flow is present aloft with a strong surface low pressure system situated over the Dakotas. A modest high pressure system sits in the deep south of the CONUS. With the CWA in between, strong SW winds gusted today across SW Kansas. Into the night, winds are forecast to continue lightening up and shifting to a more variable wind regime. With the dry air and quiet synoptic pattern, little to no headlines are expected with only Sunday providing forecast difficulty/focus. Friday/Saturday is forecast to continue being very warm in the 70/80s for highs. It will continue to be very dry, but with winds <15 mph expected, the fire weather threat will be quelled.

Ensembles have held firm in depicting a deep upper-level trough developing and moving across the north-central CONUS. Current medium and long ranged models have the connected near-surface level system moving southeast down east of the CWA. As a result, any precipitation chances that occur will be wrap-around on the back side of the system. This will lead to virtually zero severe weather chances and only small chances (10-25%) for light rain. The best of these chances are in the northern zones. Some uncertainty with the system path, dryslot positioning, and moisture content, but trends to this point in previous runs have remained relatively steady with minimal run-to-run changes. The greater threat/impact with the system is very strong winds behind the cold front. Ensembles have the current timing of the frontal passage in the very early morning hours Sunday at around 5-8 AM. Behind it winds are progged at 40-45 mph gusting to 55 mph. It is expected that this is too low on the order of 10-15 mph to both sustained winds and gusts. All of the CWA should prepare for the possibility of 60-65 mph and potentially even higher. Again measured uncertainty should be advised, but if it is as well mixed as it seems then strong winds are all but assured. The only question is quite how strong the winds will be and whether a High Wind Warning will be needed. This will become more clear in the coming days.

Through the week, the CWA will see dry air and low relative humidities with the exception of Sunday. However, through the forecast period, winds are not forecast to exceed 20 mph (again except for Friday). Because the only time strong enough winds will be present for critical fire weather concerns, the relative humidities are much higher eliminating nearly all concerns. With that in mind, the SPC has an elevated fire weather risk Friday for the far western counties, but the winds will be too light for a fire weather headline.

With the cold front Sunday highs are forecast to be much cooler with highs only in 40/50s. With the north winds continuing, albeit weaker, more CAA is forecast and will keep highs cooler again Monday in the 50s before a mid-week warmup. Into the end of next week, long-ranged ensembles have temperatures exceeding 90 degrees across SW Kansas. That will be the most notable aspect of the forecast period besides Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1136 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for all sites through the TAF period. Marginal LLWS is forecast for HYS in the first couple hours of the period. Clear skies are expected through the period for all sites, but the occasional high based cloud can not be ruled out. Winds will be mostly light (5-15 KTs) and shifting nearly 360 degrees starting from the west/southwest before turning clockwise and ending from the south due to the movement of weak surface systems.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.