textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm Friday and Saturday

- Dramatically colder Sunday

- Trending warmer next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Tonight will be a mild night across southwest Kansas. The gusty southwesterly winds will weaken around dusk. Winds will be fairly light and variable through the overnight period. Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 30s in the northwest zones to around 40F in the southeast zones. Pops will remain at zero percent through Friday morning.

High Plains lee troughing will continue tomorrow. The net result is SSE to SSW winds through much of the day. Magnitudes should be weaker than Thursday. The afternoon relative humidity across far southwest Kansas should bottom out in the 10-15% range, but again, winds should be on the weak side. Highs tomorrow should range from the mid 60s across central Kansas to the mid 70s across far southwest Kansas. Pops will continue to remain around zero percent.

Another warm day is expected Saturday. Highs should range from the upper 70s across central Kansas to the mid 80s across far southwest Kansas. Will have to watch for fire danger potential Saturday, because at least half of the FA should see afternoon relative humidity in the 10-15% range. Winds could become breezy/gusty as lee troughing continues across the high plains of Colorado.

Attention then turns Sunday. A very strong cold front will move across the state early in the day. 850 hPa temperatures will crash down in the -3C to -8C range during the day. Have collaborated with most of the neighbors to go with NBM25 highs Sunday. This suggests highs in the 40s rather than the 50s during the day. There might be as much as a 40 degree temperature drop between Saturday and Sunday. In addition, 850 winds should be in the 40-50 kt range, so strong north winds will blow all day long. The grand ensemble gives about a 75% chance of wind gusts 50+ during the day. Some of the ensemble members from the GEFS and ENS do show the potential for some light sprinkles or flurries Sunday. Don't have the highest confidence on this though, as moisture in the overall atmosphere will be on the low side.

Looking at the next business week... temperatures will moderate as the week begins. By Wednesday and Thursday, above normal temperatures are forecast in the long range models. Will have to watch out for increasing fire danger these days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 505 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through early Friday afternoon. Gusty southwest winds will continue to gradually subside this evening, dropping below 15kt overnight with the loss of daytime heating. Winds are then expected turn turn northerly 10 to 20kt generally after 10-12Z behind a weak cold front projected to push southward through western Kansas into northern Oklahoma.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.