textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Another few degrees will be shaved off temperatures today across our northwest zones, with highs ranging from the low 90s northwest to the 104-107 range southeast. The afternoon heat index will be near 110 across portions of south central Kansas. An extreme heat warning is in effect for Pratt, Stafford and Barber counties.

- Scattered, marginally severe thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon/evening posing primarily a severe wind gust risk.

- Saturday will be very similar to Friday with afternoon highs in the 90s for most of the area and scattered, marginally severe thunderstorms in the late afternoon/early evening.

UPDATE

Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Models this morning remain consistent with a surface boundary/cold front being located near a line from Larned to Dodge City to Meade this afternoon. South of this boundary, unseasonably hot temperatures are expected to persist with the latest NBM guidance suggesting highs around 105 will occur in parts of south central Kansas. However, it is important to note that the NBM has underestimated the high temperatures all this week and given this we expect this trend to continue. Given this and considering the warmer (75th percentile) temperature forecast today while keeping the forecast dewpoints as is (60-65) it looks like the afternoon heat index for portions of south central Kansas will be near 110. Due to this ongoing extreme heat conditions...an extreme heat warning will be issued for Barber, Pratt, and Stafford counties. Additionally, a heat advisory will be issued for locations from Pawnee county to Clark county where the high temperatures will range from 100 to 103 and the potential for the afternoon heat index will be near 105.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1130 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

KDDC radar observations show the decaying remnants of a marginally severe thunderstorm complex are spread out over portions of southwest KS, with an outflow boundary racing southward across our southern zones. Convective activity will continue to taper off through the evening as the boundary layer stabilizes, and the overnight period will be mostly quiet as temperatures drop into the mid-60s northwest to the upper 70s southeast. Daytime Friday, short range ensembles agree a mid-level ridge will remain stationary over southwestern Dixie Alley, resulting in southwesterly 500-mb flow over the central plains. The previous night's rainfall/convective outflow will help shave a few degrees off afternoon temperatures for most locations, with highs ranging from the low 90s northwest to 104- 107 southeast. Another round of scattered, marginally severe thunderstorms is expected Friday afternoon as all HREF members show convection developing in the vicinity of the retreating outflow boundary by 21-23Z. Similar to Thursday evening, the primary threat with this activity will be isolated severe wind gusts, especially across our northwest zones where CAMs depict the most pronounced clustering.

Daytime Saturday, ensembles suggest little to no change in the synoptic pattern as a mid-level ridge holds fast in the southeastern CONUS. This will engender a nearly identical forecast for Saturday as Friday, as afternoon highs in the mid 90s northwest to 103-106 southeast are followed by scattered, late afternoon/early evening, marginally severe thunderstorms posing primary a severe wind gust risk.

Sunday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles agree the upper level ridge will retrograde to the Desert Southwest by midday Monday, and move very little through the end of next business week. Multiple additional rounds of precipitation will reinforce the slightly cooler airmass across southwest KS, providing a much needed break from the intense heat wave as afternoon highs are in the mid 80s to low 90s both Sunday and Monday. However, this will be short lived as the retrograding ridge suppresses precipitation chances and allows temperatures to rebound into the mid/upper 90s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1101 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Flight conditions are forecast to be most in VFR contingent on the storms forecast later today. Winds will mostly be light at 5-10 variable or from the southwest. Around 22Z, storms are expected across far SW Kansas and move northeastward. With the potentially scattered and isolated nature especially initially, only a VCTS was used with each site around a 20-30% chance for storms; GCK has the best chance to see TSRA. The storm chances drop significantly in the overnight around 7Z, but may linger around HYS for longer.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ065-079-080- 088-089. Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ066- 081-090.