textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and warm with above normal temperatures through the weekend.

- Breezy southerly winds are expected Friday through Monday, but significant fire weather concerns are not expected due to recent rainfall.

- Remnant tropical moisture may influence the region leading to unsettled weather by late Tuesday. Confidence on the heavier rainfall axis is low at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1125 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Aloft, the flow is primarily zonal with a slight southeastward tilt. High pressure sits above the CWA with a subtle low pressure over Texas. With the low being too weak and far south to tangibly impact the forecast area, the patter of seasonably warm and dry temperatures will continue. Highs into Monday will continue to hover in the mid-80s and potentially push 90 degrees near the end. No precipitation chances are present in the forecast. The only notable weather forecast in this 4 day stretch is stronger winds into this weekend. Friday will be the stronger south/southwest winds at 20-25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph especially out west. Saturday and Sunday will see similar winds albeit 5 mph or so stronger. The silver lining from a weather perspective is that relative humidities are expected to stay above 25% and quell most of the fire weather risk. That said, take traditional fire weather precautions including extra care with ignition sources.

The focus continues to be on the pattern shift early next week. Ensembles still have a trough developing off of the West Coast into Monday. Current long-ranged models show scattered storms potentially, especially near the Oklahoma border. Behind these storms, models also show a more widespread round of storms behind the initial one into Wednesday. The severity of these storms are still up in the air, but can not be ruled out at this stage. Ensembles have remained steady with run to run continuity at around 0.25-0.5" of rain across those two days. This should be treated an a very preliminary estimate with a ton of uncertainty until the system is better resolved.

Outside of the precipitation, the temperatures will drop through next week. Tuesday highs will drop to the lower 80s and slowly decreasing by the day until the highs on Friday in the 60s. No other active weather is expected through the forecast period other than the precipitation.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1125 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Mostly clear skies are forecast. Winds are forecast to be out of the south slowly increasing into tomorrow where winds may reach up to 20 KTs and gusts up to 30 KTs. Ensembles have some LLWS Friday afternoon especially around GCK, but the uncertainty and marginal nature kept it out of the TAFs. Monitor for updates.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.