textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Near Critical to Critical Fire Weather Risk Wednesday and Thursday. A Red flag warning is in effect for Wednesday west of highway 83. Areas of near critical fire weather conditions will be possible Thusday, especially across extreme southwest and along the Oklahoma border.

- Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Wednesday across southwest Kansas. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible after 3 pm. A few may be severe with the main hazards being quarter size hail and wind gusts up to 60 mph.

- Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms Thursday will be Possible across south central Kansas. A slight chance for thunderstorms will be possible late Thursday and Thursday night. A few of these storms will be capable of producing larger hail and strong gusty winds.

- Cooler temperature along with improving chances for precipitation this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1150 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

It is another warm day across southwest Kansas with temperatures at noon already in the 70s. 850mb temperatures are forecast to climb into the 18 to near 24C range by late day as an upper ridge over the Rockies slowly moves east. A deepening trough of low pressure along the lee of the Rockies will allow for ongoing southerly winds across southwest Kansas to draw higher dewpoints back into the area today. What increase in low level moisture that has already occurred has resulted in higher afternoon humidity and lower fire risks for the area. Overnight, moisture will continue to advect northward into southwest Kansas as a dryline develops over eastern Colorado. This dryline will then move east into extreme southwest Kansas on Wednesday, which will produce dangerous fire weather conditions across extreme southwest Kansas and even a chance for isolated severe thunderstorms further east.

Fire Weather Concerns Wednesday. A developing dryline in eastern Colorado moves into extreme southwest Kansas during the afternoon bringing a return of drier air. As humidity values fall back into the teens west of this dryline the winds will also begin to increase late in the day. Guidance winds and BUFR sounding wind gusts via momentum transfer both support the potential for several hours late Wednesday with gusts in the 25 to 30 mph range. Given this agreement and the ongoing forecast of 10-15% humidity values west of this dryline we will upgrade the fire weather to a Red Flag Warning.

In addition to the fire weather risk on Wednesday we will be monitoring the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms along the dryline Wednesday afternoon. After 3 PM there will be a chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms along the dryline that will be located near highway 83 given improving low level forcing as afternoon instability increases and difluent flow aloft increases due to the approaching nose of an upper level jet. Despite this improving lift and instability late in the day..it still appears that limited moisture and warm mid level temperatures will try to inhibit convective initiation. As a result the chance for storms late Wednesday are less than 25%. If however storms are able to develop late in the day they have the potential to quickly strengthen and become severe, with the primary hazards being large hail and damaging winds. Currently, a Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place over and just east of the dryline across southwest Kansas.

On Thursday another round of dangerous fire weather is expected, along with a slight risk for severe weather. The severe weather risk will be focused along the dryline/cold front as it moves across south central Kansas. Short term models continue to suggest this boundary will be east of Highway 183 by 3pm which will limit this severe weather risk to Stafford, Pratt, and Barber Counties late day/early Thursday evening. In this region the environment will be more favorable for severe storms compared to Wednesday along and ahead of the dryline/cold front as a secondary upper level trough exits the Rockies. Any storm that does develop late Thursday will be capable of 2 inch hail or larger and strong winds for Stafford, Pratt and Barber Counties late Thursday. Given the progressive eastward movement of the dryline/cold front this risk for this severe weather will be limited to a 2-4 hour window.

West of this dryline on Thursday the primary concern will be the ongoing fire weather risk. Currently the area of greatest concern appears to be south of the Arkansas River based given that a cold front will be moving across southwest Kansas during the afternoon. In this area, humidity values will once again fall to 10% or less as gusty west winds develop. Wind speeds Thursday afternoon are not expected to be as strong as the past few days, but a few locations may still approach Red Flag Warning criteria, especially near the Oklahoma border where ensemble clusters show approximately a 50% chance for wind gusts to exceed 25 mph. NBM guidance was lower (25 to 40%). At this time, confidence is not high enough to issue a Fire Weather Watch, but given that another day of near critical fire weather is possible across southwest Kansas, extreme caution should be taken.

Looking ahead to the weekend. Ensemble clusters were in good agreement with an upper low developing late this week across south central Canada and then deepening over the weekend. This will allow cooler air to continue spreading south out of Canada and into Plains this weekend which will keep a cold front stationary near the Oklahoma border. As a result temperatures over the weekend will on average be 15-20 degrees cooler than earlier in the week. These temperatures may cool further late this weekend into early next week given increasing moisture/cloud cover as an upper trough approaches from the west/southwest. Ahead of this approaching trough the improving moisture and lift will not only keep temperatures on the cool side across areas of southwest Kansas that will be north of our stationary front but also bring improving chances for light precipitation. Currently there is a 30-60% chance for precipitation Sunday through early Monday with the highest chances being north of Dodge City, especially along I-70.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1150 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Southerly winds will draw more humid air back into southwest Kansas overnight. Both BUFR soundings and model guidance are in good agreement that an area of low MVFR ceilings will develop after 06Z Wednesday. There is even a 50-70% chance for ceilings to fall below 1000 ft AGL at Liberal, Dodge City, and even Garden City between 09Z and 15Z Wednesday. These low clouds will slowly erode around 18Z Wednesday. Southwest winds at 10 to 15 mph will shift to south southeast between 03Z and 06Z Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1150 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Critical Fire Risk west of highway 83 Wednesday.

A developing dryline will move east into extreme southwest Kansas by Wednesday afternoon as a 60-70 knot mid level jet moves from the base of a weakening upper level low/trough as it tracks northeast across the western United States. At this time, it appears the dryline will move only into extreme southwest Kansas by late day, given the location of the deepening surface low over portions of western Nebraska. Based on the latest short term models the general consensus places the dry line west of Highway 83, which would favor the lowest afternoon humidity values to be located west of a Hugoton to Ulysses line as gusty south winds develop. As a result, we will be upgrading the Fire Watch to a Red Flag Warning for these areas. For the counties still in the Fire Watch (Hamilton and Kearny), the humidity values for a Red Flag Warning appear more marginal, but there does appear to be a 3 to 4hour window of opportunity for red flag conditions as the gusty south southwest winds develop mid to late afternoon.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Wednesday for KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.