textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Arctic cold front passes through SW KS Friday afternoon with falling temperatures. Scattered snow flurries are possible Friday afternoon and evening.

- The coldest temperatures are expected Saturday morning, with single digits above and below zero common. Coldest temperatures expected in eastern zones/central Kansas, where a cold weather advisory remains in effect.

- South winds return Saturday, but cold temperatures persist.

- Dry with a rapid warming trend Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Backdoor arctic cold front was spreading south and west across Kansas at midday. Strong arctic high pressure and associated pressure rises will continue to push the colder arctic air southwestward into this evening, with the cold front reaching Dodge City early this afternoon, and reaching Elkhart by 6 pm. Northeast winds will increase modestly in the cold air advection through this evening, gusting to near 30 mph. Several hours of low stratus are expected this afternoon into this evening. Post frontal forcing will increase these clouds through this evening, and models continue to try to shake out flurries or light snow showers. Even this late in the game, models vary widely on their QPF fields, but all of it is light, with moisture limited by northern trajectory and cold/dry advection in the boundary layer.

Pressure rises continue tonight with winds diminishing to light and variable, as strong 1045 mb arctic high pressure arrives in Kansas. Temperatures will fall very rapidly this evening, with widespread single digit air temperatures after midnight. Coldest air temperatures in the -5 to -10 range will be found east of Dodge City toward central Kansas, nearest the surface high. Winds will be light, but the cold weather advisory remains in effect Saturday morning. In the arctic air, any slight breeze will push wind chills down to near -15, especially near Hays and the northeast zones.

Elevated south winds return quickly Saturday on the back side of the retreating high, but this will be cold recirculated continental polar air, with most locations remaining in the 20s and 30s most of Saturday. Some 40s are forecast west of US-83.

The pick day of the weekend will certainly by Sunday, with all models showing impressive, rapid warming as midlevel ridging arrives from the west, SWly downslope commences, and 850 mb temperatures sharply rebound, to near +8C east, to near +12C west. Any remaining old snow cover will rapidly melt Sunday, with afternoon temperatures well into the 50s, with lower 60s along/west of US-83. NBM is trending warmer, with lower 60s west of US-283 Sunday afternoon. Quiet dry pleasant weather will continue through Monday, as midlevel flow trends more zonal. After few clouds Sunday, expect increasing cirrus Monday, with continued mild afternoon temperatures in the 50s and 60s.

A weak shortwave will arrive about Tuesday morning, with another dry cold front passage and elevated north winds. This system will not produce precipitation until it is well east of SW KS, par for the course during the cold season. Post frontal air Tuesday will not be of arctic origin, with only several degrees of cooling.

Medium range models remain consistent forecasting a Rex block to establish over western North America Wednesday, with the ridging component of that block spreading east onto the high plains Thursday and Friday. Several days of unseasonably mild pleasant completely dry weather will result, with afternoon temperatures well above normal.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1000 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Lowering ceilings and increasing northeast winds are expected over the next several hours as an arctic cold front progresses southwestward across SW KS. NE wind gusts of 25-27 kts are expected behind the cold front, through about 00z Sat. NE winds will diminish rapidly after sunset, as strong arctic high pressure arrives in central Kansas by 12z Sat. Winds will trend light and variable after midnight, followed by south winds resuming at 10-20 kts in return flow after 15z Sat. A period of MVFR to perhaps at times IFR stratus is expected to progress southwestward through the airports this afternoon and evening, but VFR is forecast to return after 06z Sat. Limited coverage of light snow showers are possible 21z Fri - 03z Sat, but do not have the confidence to include any snow or reduced visibility in this set of TAFs.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM CST Saturday for KSZ031-046-065-066-079>081-089-090.