textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold front brings "cooler" temperatures across the forecast area today and tomorrow; temperatures only slightly above normal today and about normal Thursday

- Thunderstorm chances on the increase with minimal severe weather potential this afternoon and into tonight; strong winds and heavy rainfall the main expected hazards

- Temperatures largely stay at bay with some precipitation chances into next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 139 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

06z surface analysis depicts a cold front moving southeastward across the forecast area early this morning. This feature is a much welcoming change to the relentless heat the area has been experiencing as of late. While temperatures will be still slightly above average for the beginning of September, most areas will remain in the upper 80s to low/mid 90s. Depending on exactly the placement of the front through the afternoon, 100 is still possible in south-central Kansas. While low-level moisture will still be elevated, the lower temperatures should keep us from reaching widespread Heat Advisory heat index criteria. Thursday will be the day that will feel noticeably better than recent days. High temperatures across the entire forecast area are expected to remain in the 80s. It may feel slightly hotter with dew points remaining elevated once again, but any max heat indices are expected to only perhaps touch the low 90s.

Widespread thunderstorm chances will increase late this afternoon, this evening, and tonight across a large part of the forecast area. The aforementioned cold front will stall along or near the KS/OK border. Given abundant low-level moisture on the north and south side of the boundary, numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected. Early in the event (during the late afternoon and early evening), an isolated severe weather risk may materialize. With a deep mixing temperature and dew point profile, leading to steep low-level lapse rates and DCAPEs around 1200-1500 J/kg, some strong downburst potential does exist. However, given weak mid-level flow, only a few loosely organized multi-cell clusters are probable. So overall severe weather potential will be minimal, as a Marginal Risk is in place to reflect this potential. As more widespread storms develop into the evening and overnight hours, the hazard will transition into more of a heavy rainfall risk. Latest NBM probabilities of widespread 0.25" or greater is 30-60%, mainly along and south of Route 50 corridor. However, latest CAMs have begun to pick up on the potential for some training of thunderstorms during the evening and into the overnight hours, with very localized 1-2"+ totals a possibility. Again, similar to the severe risk, any hydro issues will be limited and not widespread. However, a few areas may experience at least some nuisance flooding.

Looking into this weekend and beyond, the ridge that has had a grip on the area as broken down and more troughs are expected to sweep into the Plains. With the exception of a day or two thrown in with hotter temperatures, temperatures will largely be kept at bay. MaxT forecast stay in the 80s and 90s through weekend and into next week. With these approaching troughs, some POPs (20-40%) are in the forecast early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 430 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

VFR is expected to continue to prevail through this TAF period, with varying amounts of mid/high clouds, and an increasing midlevel overcast after 00z Thu. Radar at 0930z depicted isolated showers near HYS. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to increase in coverage after 18z Wed, as the cold front makes progress through SW KS. Confidence on direct impacts at any airport is low, but certainly enough evidence to support a VCTS/CB mention by afternoon. Models agree coverage of -RA/-SHRA will increase after 00z Thu, with midlevel clouds prevailing by the end of the period. Winds will generally be light, but trend NEly in direction with time, as the cold front makes progress southward. After 21z Wed, NE gusts of 20-25 kts are most likely at GCK/LBL.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.