textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) severe storms across mainly far west central and far southwest Kansas late this evening with 60 mph wind gusts potential and 1-inch diameter hail the main risks with strongest storm(s)

- Warm-up back to upper 90s/lower 100s by Friday with hot temperatures still forecast over the weekend.

- Related to the second bullet, there is increased uncertainty in weekend temperature forecasts (and thunderstorm potential) as a cold front over the weekend appears stronger than previous forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Sky cover was clearing out nicely after this morning's round of showers and weak thunderstorms. 18Z surface observations were showing temperatures warming quickly through the mid to upper 80s. Winds were light and variable across much of southwest and west central Kansas, and as such, low level convergence was negligible. There is a very low probability of renewed thunderstorm development this afternoon/early this evening, but if any isolated storm(s) do develop, they would form pretty far west out near the Colorado line. The much greater probability for more organized thunderstorm activity will be out across southeastern Colorado this evening. HREF ensemble system showed the best signal for our DDC CWA across the southwest from Elkhart to Coolidge/Syracuse, roughly, and this is where POPs will be highest tonight (30 to 50%, highest along the Colorado line). There is a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe storms from the latest SPC Day One outlook for a low-end severe wind and large hail risk with the strongest storm. Given the fairly weak low level winds, a well-organized mesoscale convective system (MCS) is unlikely through the night, which is why POPs drop off quite a bit farther east overnight.

On Thursday, the northwest flow pattern aloft will continue as the summer subtropical mid level high will be well off to our west- southwest over the Four Corners region. A weak surface high will push east into northeastern Kansas and into Missouri with surface winds across western Kansas becoming southeasterly again. The best convergence Thursday/Thursday Evening will shift back to the northwest across northeastern Colorado, far northwestern Kansas, and southwestern Nebraska which is the most likely region for surface- based strong/locally severe storms. Should a small MCS evolve Thursday evening, it would move southeast toward the I-70 corridor, which is where POPs will be focused for Thursday Night period, albeit only 20-30%.

As far as temperatures go, the southerly winds will result in hotter temperatures redeveloping with lower-mid 90s likely for highs Thursday and even hotter 98-102F for highs most areas Friday afternoon. An upper level jet streak will round the upper level ridge Friday into Saturday, which will focus a better chance for organized MCS activity mainly northeast of our area across Nebraska into the northeastern half of Kansas. This jet streak diving southeast across the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest will also push another front south into Kansas. This jet streak and front are now a bit stronger in the models, pushing northeasterly low level winds deeper into Kansas Friday Night into Saturday. Despite the hot temperatures in the latest forecast, the NBM has not entirely caught up to this latest change in the models for the weekend, so expect a drop in forecast temperature going into the weekend, especially the northeastern third to half of the DDC CWA Saturday and perhaps Sunday. We may not realize the widespread 100+ afternoon highs over the weekend as currently forecast, so keep checking back as confidence increases in the weekend front strength/timing.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 522 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected across all sites through the TAF period. The only complication may be storms later tonight. The best chances to see nearby showers are HYS in the coming hours (0-1Z) and LBL/GCK later around 5-7Z. VCTS was not added because of ensembles keeping chances below 20%. The storms currently ongoing are tracked to miss HYS and DDC with tonights storms forecast to remain west of the terminals if they develop at all. That said a nearby storm or two is certainly possible at all sites. Winds will be primarily light (around 5 KTs) and variable with mostly clear skies.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.