textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Low clouds and areas of fog expected Sunday morning, with a clearing sky and warmer temperatures Sunday afternoon.

- A rapid warming trend is expected early next week, with afternoon temperatures near 100 Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Scattered strong to marginally severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and evening.

- The hottest temperatures are forecast for Wednesday afternoon, before the next cold front returns temperature closer to normal Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

00z DDC sounding was the wettest seen in quite some time, with a precipitable water of 1.53 inch. Closed subtropical cyclone at 578 dm was centered over NW Oklahoma, clearly visible in infrared satellite imagery at 9 pm. Most showers and thunderstorms earlier across the southeast counties had diminished with the loss of daytime heating. Still, radar imagery shows weak convection continuing to regenerate across NW Oklahoma, and some of these will continue to rotate northward into southeast zones through tonight. With a moist/tropical air mass in place, models show much of the boundary layer reaching saturation after midnight. Widespread stratus is expected, along with at least patchy areas of limited visibility in fog. Fog is most likely in areas that received measurable rain Saturday, southeast of Dodge City.

Shortwave rotates into eastern Kansas Sunday, with subsidence clearing the sky over SW KS from west to east. Sunshine, rising heights, breezy south winds and a net increase of at least +5C at 850 mb all spell strong warming Sunday, with 4 pm temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s, to mid 90s at Elkhart.

A ridge-rider shortwave may generate scattered thunderstorms Monday afternoon/evening, focused mainly on central Kansas where NBM continues with some modest pops. The expected shear and instability is expected to support some organized storms, per SPC Day 3 marginal (level 1 of 5) hail/wind probabilities.

A string of three hot afternoons is expected next week, Monday through Wednesday. Upper 90s will prevail Monday, followed by near record highs near 100 Tuesday and Wednesday. NBM continues with at least 80% probability of reaching 100 degrees across much of SW KS, both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. Winds on Monday appear light, but strong south to southwest winds are expected Tuesday and Wednesday, enhancing mixing and downslope, and encouraging the triple digit heat. Models remain consistent suggesting Wednesday will be the hottest day, with afternoon temperature of 100-104, aided by prefrontal compression. Strong trough over the northern Rockies Wednesday will send the next cold front into SW KS Thursday, with a north wind and cooler temperatures. NBM has been showing very low pops for this frontal passage, but the more likely outcome is the cold front will come through SW KS dry.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

With moist light upslope southeast winds prevailing, and a very moist boundary layer in place, widespread MVFR stratus is expected to spread over SW KS after midnight, along with modest reductions in visibility in BR/FG. Brought visibility as low as 3sm in this set of TAFs, and widespread fog is not currently expected, but this will need to be monitored closely through 15z Sun. After 15z Sun, subsidence is expected to return to all airports to VFR, with the sky clearing from west to east by 18z Sun. Light southeast winds will prevail through Sunday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.