textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Much cooler Thursday with diminishing north winds.

- A stronger arctic cold front arrives Friday afternoon, with much colder air spreading southwestward across SW KS.

- Scattered snow flurries expected Friday afternoon/night as arctic air arrives, with little if any accumulation expected. - Arctic high pressure will deliver the coldest temperatures of the forecast period Saturday morning, with single digits common. Subzero air temperatures are expected in central Kansas, where a cold weather advisory has been issued.

- Quiet and dry with a rapid warming trend Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Midday satellite imagery depicted the remaining stratus dissipating in a subsident environment behind the latest shortwave. Elevated north winds were supplying modest cold air advection, but north winds will diminish rapidly this afternoon. Expecting a temperature range of about 25 degrees at 4 pm, ranging from upper 20s at Hays to mid 50s at Elkhart.

Light and variable winds will prevail much of tonight, allowing for seasonably cold temperatures in the teens and 20s.

Friday will feature increasing clouds, increasing northeast winds, and steady/falling afternoon temperatures as arctic air backdoors southwestward across SW KS. Latest timing from the 12z NAM shows the arctic cold front arriving at a faster rate compared to several of the CAM solutions, and is preferred given the strength of the incoming arctic anticyclone and associated pressure rises. 12z NAM shows the arctic front reaching Hays by noon, the US-83 corridor by 3 pm Friday, and far southwest Kansas by 6 pm. Temperature forecasting will be tricky Friday, with exact high temperatures at any one location dependent on this frontal timing. Certainly, a very large temperature gradient is expected during the afternoon, ranging from 20s northeast to 50s southwest. Temperatures will show a non-diurnal curve downward, such as at Dodge City, where cold air advection establishes during the afternoon. At any rate, temperatures will fall rapidly Friday evening/night as strong arctic high pressure builds south into Kansas.

Models remain consistent forecasting a period of post frontal frontogenetic forcing spreading southwest across SW KS Friday evening. Some CAM solutions such as 12z ARW show widespread minor accumulations of 1/3 to 1/2 inch of fluffy dry snow Friday night, but believe these more robust solutions are overdone. Most models suggest a period of enhanced midlevel clouds in the frontogenetic zone, with perhaps scattered flurries. Given the northern trajectory and dry arctic boundary layer, NBM has been correctly trending to the drier solutions, with the probability of even a dusting (>0.1 inch) reduced to 20-40%. NBM pops continue to trend downward. Any impacts from any snow will be limited, if any at all.

The coldest temperatures of the forecast period will occur Saturday morning, with model consensus placing the strong arctic high center (near 1048 mb) over central Kansas sunrise Saturday. High confidence the coldest temperatures Saturday morning will occur east of Dodge City, where the sky at least partially clears, and winds will be the lightest. Subzero air temperatures are expected in these zones, with low lying areas perhaps as cold as -10. A cold weather advisory will be required, although winds near the high will be light. WFOs Wichita/Norman have already issued a cold weather advisory for Saturday morning, and certainly the adjacent eastern zones will be the coldest.

Strong return flow is expected Saturday, with strong south winds (stronger than NBM) expected behind the retreating arctic high. Saturday will still be uncomfortably cold in the recirculated continental polar air. High confidence of a rapid warming trend Sunday and Monday, as broad midlevel ridging spreads eastward onto the high plains.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1000 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Satellite imagery outlines remaining IFR stratus from GCK to LBL at 16z Thu, which is expected to erode over the next two hours. After this, VFR is expected over the upcoming TAF period. Toward the end of this TAF period, after 15z Fri, IFR stratus is expected to return to HYS behind an arctic cold front. Elevated north winds in progress at 16z Thu will diminish through the afternoon, trending light and variable by 00z Fri. An increase in northeast winds is expected behind an arctic cold front after 18z Fri.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.