textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Strongest cold front of the young fall season arrives Tuesday, with increasing northeast winds, increasing clouds, and falling afternoon temperatures.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday evening through Tuesday night as the front returns north as a warm front.

- South winds quickly return Wednesday through Friday, allowing for the return of unseasonably hot afternoons in the 90s.

- Another cold front will knock temperatures back down this weekend, with afternoon temperatures in the 70s Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Surface observations outlined the strongest cold front so far this young fall season, bisecting SW KS, with northeast winds gusting 30-40 mph behind it. The cold front, readily apparent on radar imagery, will pass DDC through the noon hour, and will exit Barber county no later than 7 pm. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the advancing cold front's convergence axis, but with the front's rapid movement, any storms would only impact the southeast counties (southeast of a Coldwater-Pratt line) for a few hours 4-8 pm. Wind shear and instability will both be modest at best, but just like yesterday, some loosely organized clusters may support wind gusts of 50-70 mph. SPC maintains its marginal 5% wind probability for these zones. Elsewhere, cold advection will establish this afternoon, with lowering stratus clouds and falling afternoon temperatures.

Low stratus clouds will prevail tonight, with 1023 mb cool surface ridging quickly building into SW KS by 7 am Wed. Sunrise temperatures Wednesday will be closer to mid September normals, in the upper 50s and lower 60s. At least scattered showers and thunderstorms are probable tonight into early Wednesday, as warm air advection aloft quickly establishes above the cool boundary layer.

Residual frontal boundary retreats rapidly northward as a warm front Wednesday, synoptically encouraged by a strong trough arriving in the Great Basin, and a powerful 600 dm ridge centered over the Mississippi valley. South winds return quickly Wednesday, allowing for temperatures to rebound. MOS guidance forecasts afternoon temperatures in the 80s, while NBM is warmer into the lower 90s. Kept the warmer guidance as subsidence and rising heights increase from the east. This will also keep most of SW KS dry, with any thunderstorms near Goodland Wednesday evening.

The unseasonable heat reestablishes fully Thursday, as the powerful ridge over the SE US begins retrograding westward. Stronger south winds, stronger than NBM guidance, will facilitate mixing and encourage temperatures to easily warm through the 90s. Some locations will approach 100, yet again. The heat is expected to peak Friday, with afternoon temperatures of 95-100 common, and some record highs possible.

Shortwave trough over the northern Rockies Friday, will advance eastward into the northern plains Sunday. This process will send the next cold front down the plains, reducing afternoon temperatures to the 70s Sunday and Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this cold front, with NBM currently highlighting likely category pops centered on Saturday night.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1020 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Surface analysis at 15z depicted a strong cold front making progress through western Kansas, with northeast winds gusting to near 30 kts across NW KS. The cold front will make progress through all airports over the next few hours, with an abrupt increase in northeast winds, gusting 30-32 kts. With the cold front expected to be well southeast of the airports by 00z Wed, any thunderstorms on the front should not impact aviation operations. High confidence that flight categories will degrade after 00z Wed, as IFR stratus fills in overnight. Visibility reductions in BR/-SHRA are also expected overnight through 12z Wed. Northeast winds will diminish rapidly after 00z Wed, trending light and variable by 12z Wed.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.