textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe t-storms are expected this evening, especially along the I-70 corridor.

- Hot weather is forecast for today and Sunday, with cooler but humid weather for next week.

- There are varying chances for t-storms for most of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 106 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

A shortwave trough will approach the high plains later today. Ahead of this feature, surface troughing in the lee of the Rockies will allow for strong south winds and hot temperatures. Given the increasing mid to high level winds, t-storms will form on the higher terrain west of Kansas in the afternoon and then progress across western Kansas this evening. The most organized t-storms will be from I-70 northward, with isolated severe storms farther south. Very large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards, with a greater areal coverage from Ness City north to Hays, Dighton and Scott City. Storms farther south will be isolated but still severe. Dewpoints over the panhandles are modest by late June standards (lower to mid 60s). Inspection of 00z RAOBS shows boundary layer dewpoints in the lowest kilometer between 10 and 15C at KOKC and KAMA and around 16-18C at KFWD. Widespread convective outflow had suppressed the richer moisture into south Texas where surface dewpoints were in the upper 70s. So the return flow will not be as moist as previous thinking. As a result, deep mixing will result in moderate mixing ratios across western Kansas this afternoon, yielding relatively high cloud bases around 6-7000 feet. Low level shear values are forecast to be weak until the nocturnal low level jet develops by 01-02z. Moisture and vertical shear are forecast to increase later in the evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary concerns during the early evening across far western Kansas as storms move in from Colorado. Once the storms become outflow dominated, they will likely remain that way through the late evening while propagating eastward. Upscale growth into a larger storm cluster is favored along I-70 and northward.

The various models and their ensembles disagree on how much cooling occurs by Sunday in the wake of the overnight storms, with readings from the mid 80s to the lower and mid 90s possible. There will continue to be a strong upper level jet in place across the high plains and storms may form to the west again and move into western Kansas later in the evening. These storms could also be severe; but confidence is low on the particulars.

Anomalously strong westerly flow at mid and upper levels will persist Monday. Although the main warm sector will be across the southern plains, post frontal, moist upslope flow will result in sufficient instability for storms once again, especially given the relatively cool 700mb temperatures. However, CAPE values should be lower by this time given how far north of the front we will be. But it doesn't take much instability to get severe storms this time of year. And if the low levels recover more than expected, with higher dewpoints, then the chances for severe storms would be higher.

By Tuesday and Wednesday upper troughing will be situated over the Upper Midwest, with a flat ridge across the southern Rockies. This configuration is favorable for severe weather across southwest Kansas this time of year given an associated mid level thermal gradient and increasing moisture.

There is considerable uncertainty with the upper level pattern by late next week, especially in regards to the positioning of the southern edge of the westerlies and fronts. Thus, storm chances and temperatures are uncertain.

Over the next week the grand ensemble continues to show moderate to high probabilities (40-80%) of 1" or more of rain, with the lowest chances across far western Kansas and highest in central Kansas. However, rain events will affect different areas from day to day.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Southeast winds at 10 kts will increase to southerly at 20 kts by 16-18z as a surface trough deepens on the high plains. An upper level disturbance is forecast to approach Saturday evening. T-storms will form to the west of the TAF sites and move eastward through the evening. T-storm coverage is not known at this time; but KHYS has the highest chance (60-70%) for t-storms with strong wind gusts and hail. Isolated storms could affect KDDC/KGCK and KLBL as well between 00z and 06z.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.