textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong south winds and elevated to critical wildfire danger Saturday afternoon.

- Unseasonably hot afternoon temperatures return Sunday and Monday, with record highs expected for March 29th and 30th. Hottest temperatures expected Monday afternoon in the mid 90s.

- A strong but dry cold front is expected Monday night, followed by much cooler temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Infrared satellite imagery at midday depicted a mainly clear sky with limited cirrus. Strong return flow was established at noon, with gusts already surpassing 40 mph across western zones. Tight pressure gradients will support gusts to near 50 mph mainly along and west of US 83 through this afternoon with patchy blowing dust from the dry topsoils. Temperatures in the 60s will prevail this afternoon.

South winds will diminish some at sunset, but remain elevated and gusty through the night, in response to a low level jet keeping the boundary layer mixed. South winds of 15-25 mph will prevail tonight, keeping temperatures milder than last night, in the 40s.

Model guidance shows strong warming Sunday, along with a dramatically weaker pressure gradient. 850 mb temperatures soaring above 20C will support at least mid to upper 80s across all of SW KS, even with the decided lack of downslope and mixing. With limited cirrus, and with very dry topsoils, followed the warmest guidance, with western zones near 90 by 3 pm. Record highs for March 29 are in the upper 80s, and some new records are expected. The warming trend continues through Monday. With more of a sustained W/SWly downslope compression ahead of an approaching cold front, the forecast lies at the top of the warmest guidance. In fact, wouldn't be surprised if some locations in the favored Red Hills will hit 100 again Monday afternoon, given the very dry soils and expanding drought.

The next dry cold front is scheduled for early Tuesday morning. Tuesday will feature another dramatic cooldown, back down to normal, into the 60s. North winds will be stronger than NBM guidance, with gusts near 45 mph through midday. Cold front is expected to clear Barber county about midday, so confident any convective development along the advancing cold front will be southeast of SW KS.

Model consensus and NBM hold the cooler air mass over SW KS Wednesday, and with considerable cloud ahead of an approaching shortwave, the first day of April is forecast to actually be cooler than normal, with many locations remaining in the 50s.

To various degrees, models generate modest QPF with scattered rain showers as the shortwave passes Wednesday night/early Thursday. NBM maintains continuity from its previous runs, with chance category pop coverage of 30-40%. While there will likely be some scattered showers around, am also confident that this will not be the significant rainfall we are looking for. Moisture will be limited, with gulf inflow intercepted by widespread thunderstorms across Oklahoma/Texas. NBM probability of QPF > 0.10 inch is only 20-30%, favoring the eastern zones, as is typical in early April. Keep expectations low for this rain; perhaps some of us can settle some dust.

Another rapid warming trend is expected Thursday and Friday. South winds and moisture advection will increase during this time, as a strong trough arrives in the Great Basin by 7 pm Friday. Dryline development and sharpening is expected, especially on Friday with dewpoints of 60-65 across eastern zones. Instability and bulk shear are forecast to support organized or severe thunderstorms eastern zones late Friday, but much will depend on cold front timing. GFS suggests a much more crashing cold front scenario, decreasing the severe risk, while other models delay cold front passage to Saturday morning. Will monitor this closely this week. Details will be worked out next week, but certainly climatology supports severe convective threats beginning in the eastern zones in early April.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1010 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

VFR/SKC will continue through this TAF period, with limited amounts of cirrus. Strong south winds will impact aviation operations at all airports through 00z Sun, gusting 37-40 kts. South winds will diminish some at sunset, but remain elevated and gusty through tonight, with a low level jet keeping the boundary layer mixed. Included low level wind shear after 02z Sun. VFR/SKC will continue Sunday with much less wind.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Strong south winds are expected through sunset, with frequent gusts over 40 mph. Minimum relative humidity will be more marginal relative to red flag criteria, at 15-20% this afternoon. Regardless, with very dry dormant fuels, wildfire fire danger will be critical through sunset. South winds will diminish somewhat at sunset, but remain elevated and gusty tonight. Much warmer temperatures, and much lower relative humidity, are expected Sunday, but with much less wind. With less wind, no fire weather headlines are planned for Sunday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.