textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly clear skies and light winds today with afternoon highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.

- Tonight into early tomorrow, scattered light to moderate rain showers will move into southwest KS, favoring areas along and south of KS-96.

- Prolonged dry period appears likely from tomorrow afternoon through the next several days, with highs generally in the 50s and 60s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1111 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery and RAP upper air analysis at midday reveal a pair of 500-mb troughs dominate the synoptic pattern over the CONUS, with one centered over the upper Midwest and another upstream over the Intermountain West. At the surface, southwest KS resides between a ~997-mb low over the upper Midwest and weak high pressure over the southern plains, supporting light and variable winds across our area. Throughout the remainder of the day today, DNVA in the wake of the eastern trough should keep skies mostly clear and winds will remain light and variable, yielding a very pleasant fall day with afternoon temperatures peaking in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Later tonight, short range ensembles agree the western trough will advance eastward onto the central plains by 12Z Thursday. As forcing for ascent increases over southwest KS ahead of this feature, light to moderate rain showers will cross the CO/KS border around midnight, and spread eastward with time favoring areas along and south of KS-96. REFS members along with the HRRR imply this activity will have some convective elements, suggesting the precipitation totals will be much more hit-or-miss instead of a broad swath of roughly even rainfall amounts. As such, QPF forecasts are all over the place from ensemble members, resulting in a wide range of potential outcomes for specific locations. Precipitation totals could range from zero/just a trace up to 1"+ by the time it exits our area late afternoon/early evening Thursday.

Friday through the end of the period, medium range ensembles depict an abnormal degree of variance between solutions regarding the overall synoptic evolution over the CONUS. That said, the general indication is a prolonged dry stretch for southwest KS is ahead, with little to no opportunities for precipitation and mild afternoon temperatures with highs in the 50s and 60s through mid next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 443 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Mid level clouds will develop overnight with mostly cloudy skies expected through the majority of tomorrow. Scattered showers will be possible overnight across all TAF sites besides the HYS terminal. These showers may bring periods of MVFR conditions. Otherwise expect VFR conditions. Winds will be light overnight, shifting to a northerly direction tomorrow.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.