textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and warm with above normal temperatures through the weekend.

- Breezy southerly winds are expected Friday through Monday, but significant fire weather concerns are not expected due to recent rainfall.

- Remnant tropical moisture may influence the region leading to unsettled weather by Wednesday. Confidence on the heavier rainfall axis is low at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1111 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Split flow aloft is expected across Kansas today and Friday. The net result is a dry forecast and warm (above normal) highs and mild lows. Winds will remain on the light side today as the High Plains lee trough remains on the weak side. Eventually, by the weekend, broad southwesterly flow aloft is expected across the state. This will result in the deepening of the lee trough with breezy and gusty winds expected Friday through Monday. Even with the winds and warmth, significant fire weather concerns are not expected due to recent rainfall and unresponsive fuels. For temperatures, highs and lows are expected to be above normal. Normal highs for this time of year are in the mid 70s with lows in the mid to upper 40s. Highs Friday are expected to peak in the upper 80s to around 90F. Lows will be in the mix of 50s to 60s. Similar highs and lows are expected over the weekend with highs in the upper 80s to around 90F and lows in the 50s to 60s, with more 60s by the end of the weekend.

Attention then turns to the middle portion of next week. Will remnant tropical moisture left from what would be Simon influence our area?! Right now, there is considerable spread in the heavier rainfall axis from both the GEFS and ENS. The latest NBM has chance pops next Wednesday. The latest NHC forecast track from Simon does have landfall farther south than what we saw from Polo. So, it is possible this system could track farther south taking much of the moisture with it. Again, since there is considerable spread in the ensembles, it is hard to get excited or hopeful at this point. The bottom line is we will need to look for ensemble trends in the exact storm track before we begin to discuss particular rainfall amounts.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1111 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR is expected through the TAF pd. A dry atmosphere will lead to SKC conditions today. Weak High Plains lee troughing will continue through the period. The net result is light S to SW winds 5-10 kt.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.