textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag conditions for 6 counties today

- Warm sector thunderstorms likely to miss FA again Friday

- Mild weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1111 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

A sfc low pressure center will traverse across the state today. This will result in winds changing direction throughout the period. Winds will start out SE/S, will become NW by morning, and then SE/S by the afternoon to evening hours. Wind magnitudes will not be overly strong and will be in the 5-20 kt range. The warmest highs are expected across far southwest Kansas, where values around 80F are expected. The combination of the warm highs, lows afternoon relative humidity, and eventually breezy winds will spell out another red flag day across far western Kansas. See the Red Flag warning for more information on this high fire danger across far western/southwestern Kansas. Otherwise, highs in the 70s are expected for the rest of the FA.

A cold front will traverse across the state Friday. The CAMs have come in agreement that the warm sector and the associated thunderstorms will be east and southeast of the FA during Friday afternoon and evening. The NBM has low pops clipping Barber county, but have my doubts about that. Looks likely yet another dry fropa for us. NW to N winds will blow in the wake of the front during the day Friday around 20 mph. I suppose the could be elevated fire conditions Friday, but it is typically hard for us to get to red flag conditions in a post-frontal environment. Something to watch though to see how much dewpoints will decrease behind the front.

The weekend is looking to be dry and mild. Cool and stable high pressure will prevail across the greater region both days. Highs will be in the 60s Saturday and 70s Sunday. Lows around freezing may be possible both mornings for a portion of the FA. Winds during the weekend period look to be weak overall in magnitude. Should be both nice days for outdoor activity.

The next business week is looking to start out with quiet weather Monday. Long range models show the potential of a fropa by next Thursday. It remains to be seen if there will be moisture associated with the front or not. Several ensemble members from both the GEFS and ENS keep moisture east and southeast of the FA. The NBM is cranking out pops during this period, however, this may not be completely backed up by the all the ensemble members. Something to watch and adjust for trends.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1111 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

VFR should prevail for KDDC/KGCK/KLBL. IFR cigs will be possible during the overnight hours and into the morning for KHYS. Winds will become northwesterly 5-15 kt by morning and then will eventually become SE/S 5-15 kt by evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1111 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Breezy southerly winds are eventually expected today across far western Kansas during the afternoon hours. Dewpoints will continue to remain low with values in the 20s. Highs today will peak around 80F across western Kansas. The combination of the warm temperatures, low relative humidity, and eventually breezy winds will result in another red flag day across western Kansas. The fire weather watch has been upgraded to a red flag warning. Do not burn!

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Thursday for KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085.