textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Precipitation potential in the eastern counties tonight, northern counties tomorrow, and scattered storms on Saturday

- The strongest storms that develop may be marginally severe with hail and strong wind gusts

- Highs warm up to the 100s early next week and reside there for much of the work week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

The synoptic pattern aloft is dominated by ridging in the eastern half of the CONUS with a deep trough in the western CONUS. This extends down into the mid-levels. This has resulted in a tremendous amount of moisture advection with the flow moving south to north and pulling moisture from the Gulf. This will keep some chances for precipitation most of the next few days. Assuming the morning cloud cover erodes as forecast, highs today are forecast in the mid to upper 80s with some areas reaching the 90s. The storm risk area has been trending eastward for later today over the last few forecast cycles. Nearly every 12Z CAM has convection occurring along Highway 281 or eastward with many like the HRRR keeping the forecast area dry. If enough CAPE can recover with surface heating this afternoon (4-5 PM), it will combine with ample moisture and surface convection to fire strong storms. While supercells are possible, the environment is only conducive for marginally severe at best. The primary threat will be in 1-1.5" hail in the strongest cells if they occur with the possibility of severe wind gusts. However, if trends hold the convection will be pushed out of the CWA and will remain dry.

Friday will not look too dissimilar aside from warmer highs and the precipitation being in the northern counties. Highs for virtually the entirety of SW Kansas is in the 90s. CAMs have quite splotchy areas of convection, but the loose average of the storm placement is along a Scott City to Hays axis in the late afternoon and early evening. While the current expectation is that any storms in the area remain marginal similar to Thursday, the areas to the northeast have a better environment for stronger storms. It will need to be monitored if/how the mesoscale factors change to determine what the high end storms are capable of. Forecast soundings are quite limited in the shear supply which at this point should tamper a significant severe threat.

Saturday is the next best chance for more widespread precipitation. The NAMNST has convection firing along the OK/KS border in the evenings and expanding northward into SW Kansas through the overnight. The environment continues to be on repeat with CAPE and moisture while lacking shear. Again a marginal/sub-severe severe threat is expected. Early on the strongest storms may be able to capitalize on the instability and produce small hail and gusty winds; even this may miss out on the CWA and occur in Oklahoma. It is more than possible that the NAMNST is only so bullish because it understates the cloud cover expected through the day on Saturday. This may squash the significant majority of the storm potential.

Sunday and beyond will return a drier pattern with an extraordinarily warm week. Ensembles have precipitation chances late Monday and into Tuesday in the eastern counties. This is still fairly poorly resolved with a lot of run to run uncertainty and details will be sparse until the temporal uncertainty decreases. Monday will be the first day with a solid opportunity (>40% via ensembles) for 100 degree highs near the OK/KS border. By Tuesday, highs across nearly the entire CWA hold those chances or better with most of the CWA holding forecasted triple digit highs. The rest of the work week is expected to see similar highs. It will need to be monitored on whether a heat risk threat will develop.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 517 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through early Friday. Southerly winds around 10 to 20kt will persist through late tonight as a weak lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado. Gusts up to 25kt are expected after daybreak Friday as low pressure in Wyoming strengthens as it slides southeast into northeast Colorado and northwest Kansas.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.