textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Snowfall event is unfolding across southwest KS this afternoon, with highest snowfall totals expected near the KS/CO border.

- Warming trend will begin Saturday as upper level ridging builds over the western CONUS.

- Despite a few cold frontal passages next week, little to no precipitation is anticipated.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Widespread snowfall event continues to unfold across southwest KS this afternoon courtesy of a positively-tilted upper trough now ejecting onto the High Plains. Latest KDDC radar trends suggest the heaviest snowfall is currently occurring near the US-283 corridor, and gradually moving eastward, with snowfall tapering off near the KS/CO border as the trough axis passes overhead. As this precipitation shield shifts eastward later this afternoon and evening, short range guidance agrees the upper wave will open, which will weaken frontogenesis/forcing and allow precipitation rates to decrease. As a result, snowfall amounts are expected to be highest across our western zones once snowfall finally exits our area by midnight tonight, with 4-7" near the KS/CO border diminishing to 1-2" over our eastern zones. Overnight, fresh snowpack and modest winds around 5-10 mph will support radiational cooling and temperatures dropping into the teens to low 20s by Saturday morning.

Daytime Saturday, in the wake of the snowfall event, ensembles agree upper level ridging will begin to build over the western CONUS, resulting in an amplified upper pattern of ridging to the west and troughing to the east that will persist through the end of the period. While vorticity maxima will dive south on the western periphery of the trough on a few occasions during next week, bringing weak cold fronts through the central plains, ridging out west will generally support above normal temperatures with afternoon highs increasing from the 40s on Saturday to the 50s on Monday and beyond. Similarly, probability of precipitation grids are quiet (<15%) through next Friday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1101 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Clearing skies were developing quickly behind an upper level trough that was crossing southwest Kansas at this time (05Z). BUFR soundings also support this clearing trend with what VFR ceilings that are currently over portions of southwest Kansas moving east of the area by 090z as a surface high crosses the West Central High Plains. Northwest winds at 10 to 15 knots overnight will shift to the west at 12z. These westerly winds will then increase into the 15 to 20 knot range by 18z today.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.