textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Minimal shower/isolated thunderstorm chances (20-40%) late today into very early Wednesday.

- Ongoing warming trend continues through mid-week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1208 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

WV imagery indicates a west-southwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a weak area of low pressure remains anchored in southeast Colorado.

Despite a relatively dry pattern persisting early in the period, there are minimal chances (20-40%) for showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm here or there late today/early Wednesday as the SREF points to another upper level shortwave trough lifting northeast through the Southern Rockies early this morning, and farther into the high plains of eastern Colorado this afternoon. Near the surface, modest moisture return at best will push surface dewpoints up into 50s(F) across southwest/south central Kansas, introducing some meager instability with MUCAPE values pushing 500 J/kg or so by late afternoon. Meanwhile, an attendant frontal boundary to the organizing low in southeast Colorado is projected to develop/extend east-northeast through western Kansas by early evening. Although dynamic support aloft will remain less than favorable, steepening low/mid-level lapse rates combined with very marginal instability will set the stage for shower/isolated thunderstorm development across central Kansas and portions of southwest Kansas as H5 vort maxima transition through the high plains, interacting with the aforementioned boundary. The best chance for isolated showers/storm or two initially will be across extreme southwest Kansas late afternoon/early evening as suggested by some CAMs and the HREF indicating a 20-30% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding a mere 0.1 of an inch by late evening with that probability then shifting to central Kansas overnight. What little precip chances exist dissipate Wednesday as a developing upper level ridge amplifies across the Western High Plains.

An ongoing warming trend continues today as prevailing southerlies help draw slightly warmer air into the area, pushing H85 temperatures well above 10C in central Kansas to near 17-18C in extreme southwest Kansas. With the HREF showing a 40-60% probability of temperatures exceeding 70F in central/south central Kansas to better than a 90% probability of topping 70F elsewhere, expect widespread afternoon highs in the 70s(F). Look for similar highs Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 433 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Good flying weather will continue through this TAF period, with VFR at all airports, and varying amounts of mid/high clouds. After 15z Tue, elevated to strong south winds are expected, gusting 25-28 kts.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.