textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower/thunderstorm chances (70-90%) return Wednesday night into Thursday.

- Seasonable temperatures expected through late in the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 103 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

WV imagery indicates weak ridging aloft transitioning east through the Western High Plains. Near the surface, a broad area of high pressure continues to dominate the Great Lakes Region.

Relatively dry conditions are expected to persist through early Wednesday as the SREF indicates weak upper level ridge shifting farther east into the Central Plains. Fairly widespread shower/thunderstorm chances (70-90%) pick up across much of southwest Kansas Wednesday night/early Thursday as the ridge axis continues to drift east, allowing a slowly intensifying southwest flow aloft to develop across the high plains of eastern Colorado/western Kansas, tapping into monsoonal moisture in the Desert Southwest. A prevailing south-southeast upslope flow will further reinforce low level moisture with dewpoints pushing the lower 60s(F), providing modest instability. Shower/thunderstorm development remains likely across northeast New Mexico into southeast Colorado late Wednesday afternoon/early Wednesday evening as an upper level shortwave lifts northeast through the Southern Rockies with storms spreading northeast into southwest Kansas overnight into Thursday. The best chance for rainfall initially will be across extreme southwest Kansas where the latest HREF remains consistent showing a widespread 50-70% probability of 12-hr QPF exceeding 0.25 of an inch by mid-day Thursday. Precip chances (60-80%) shift east across the remainder of southwest Kansas into central Kansas late Thursday into early Friday as a series of H5 vort maxima continue to cycle northeast through western Kansas on the backside of a departing ridge axis.

Temperatures are not expected to be quite as cool tonight as prevailing south-southeasterlies draw slightly warmer air into the area, not to mention increased moisture supporting surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s(F) to near 60F. Look for lows generally in the lower 60s(F) out west where the latest HREF shows a 50-70% probability of temperatures slipping below 65F to the mid/upper 50s(F) in central Kansas where there is a 80-90% probability of temperatures falling below 60F. High temperatures bump up a little Wednesday with prevailing southerlies drawing slightly warmer air into the area, pushing H85 temperatures well above 15C in central Kansas to near 20C in extreme southwest Kansas. With the HREF painting a 40-60% probability of temperatures climbing above 75F in far southwest Kansas to a 30-50% probability of nudging above 80F in central/south central Kansas, expect afternoon highs generally in the mid-70s(F) to the 80s(F). Similar temperatures are forecast Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 504 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for all TAF sites through the TAF period. HYS may see ceilings at 12-18Z around MVFR thresholds similar to Tuesday morning. This will need to be monitored but ensembles keep chances below 30%. LBL also has around a 15% chance to see rain showers near the end of the period, but was excluded from the TAFs due to chances being too low. Otherwise skies will be mostly clear with a steady southeast wind at 10-15 KTs.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.