textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Accumulating snows likely for all of southwest Kansas with two rounds of snow Friday night into Saturday morning and again Saturday night into Monday morning with the second wave still with uncertainty

- Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory in effect; mainly along and east of Highway 183 corridor are the areas that have the highest probabilities of receiving greater than 5 inches of snow...widespread winter weather impacts are likely

- Coldest air of the season starts today and lasts through Monday morning with dangerous wind chills around -15 to -20 and sub zero morning lows Saturday, Sunday, and Monday mornings. Cold Weather Advisory is currently in effect for the arctic air

DISCUSSION

Issued at 333 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

The winter storm system that has been messaged all week has finally arrived. Temperatures this morning plummeted and wind chills have kept steady at around -12 to -17 degrees with the coldest air across the northern counties. Additionally, the slow and light snow start has begun more or less as expected. Light snow across the western and northern counties started this morning and continued. Little accumulation has developed yet, but Friday's snowfall is still on track. Models and ensembles have continued yesterday's signal of a maxima band of snow roughly in a east-west direction around Hays. Almost all moderate snowfall across SW Kansas is expected to begin around 6 PM. Impacts prior to that onset is very minimal. Two potential waves of snowfall is expected with the more certain and larger of the two being tonight through Sunday morning. Widespread amounts ranging from 2-5" by sunrise tomorrow is representative of ensemble means.

The difficulty surrounding the snowfall forecast is the second wave. As discussed in prior AFDs, the primary failure points appeared to be track and timing. All week those parameters have held steady in being favorable for heavy snowfall totals approaching 6-8". As the event begins, ensembles and CAMs are quickly pulling back away from this solution via a variety of factors. The collocated upper-level jets that were previously thought to provide tremendous lift has misaligned and moved southward. Additionally, a sharper/quicker burst of arctic air will shift the bulk of the isentropic lift southward and limit the duration of snowfall on Saturday. What could have been an additional 3-5 inches may now only be another 1-3". This has dropped expected totals nearly 2" across the CWA with areas in the Winter Storm Warning now expecting a ballpark of 4-6". As always, localized areas may received significantly more or less than these figures and surrounding areas. It should be noted that if the recent pessimistic trends continue, final amounts may even be another inch or two less than current forecasts. That question will be the focus of the upcoming forecasts aside from the very cold air.

The forecasting of the cold air is much simpler. Models and ensembles have had a decent grasp the last few runs albeit a few degrees to warm. From a headline perspective, the Cold Weather Advisory has already been justified and is expected to continue to be over the coming days. The difficulty is that the criteria for a Extreme Cold Warning is -20 degrees, right around where wind chill minimums are expected to reach. Other than a potential upgrade of the advisory, the wind chills and headlines will hold firm. Sunday is progged to be too warm to keep the advisory going through Sunday night, so a separate product may be needed. Still being a few days out and the uncertainty between the Cold Weather Advisory and Extreme Cold Warning, the headline will hold off for a couple more forecast cycles. Make no mistake though, Sunday night into Monday morning will still be very cold with wind chills as low as -22 degrees.

Next week is forecast to be quiet after the winter storm system moves through and exits. Winds will be cooler than normal, but not as extreme as this weekend with highs in the 20-40s and fluctuating. Long-ranged ensembles keep the week dry until Friday where chances jump to around 20%. Specifics are not worth talking about since the current system still needs to be finished resolving before declarative statements can be made about future systems. In the meantime, take precautions with the very cold by dressing appropriately and staying warm. Take travel precautions and prepare for the potential of very hazardous travel conditions.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1039 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Various lowered flight conditions are expected for nearly the whole period at all sites. As the winter storm system continues to move in, areas of light snow is expected to become more widespread with areas of lowered ceilings. Between 0-6Z, the snowfall is forecast to intensify with even lower ceilings and visibilities. Lots of uncertainty revolves around how intense that initial burst of snowfall is and how long it lasts. Previously it appeared that the heavier snow would last through the period, but recent trends hint that it may light considerable after 12Z. Exact timings and intensities are difficult to pin down, but there is significant confidence (>90%) for lowered flight conditions for all terminals around the 10-20Z window.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Sunday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090. Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM CST Sunday for KSZ030-031- 044>046-064>066-077>081-087>090. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ Sunday for KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086.