textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler (by late June standards) temperatures much of this week with daily highs in the lower 80s.

- Larger scale pattern will continue to support nightly thunderstorm chances, including attendant severe weather risk and localized flooding potential.

- The nightly thunderstorm pattern will most likely break toward the end of the week.

- Beginning next weekend, a pattern shift toward very hot and windy weather is becoming increasingly likely.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 137 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

This week will feature a continuation of nightly thunderstorm chances along with slightly cooler than normal temperatures for late June. The larger synoptic scale pattern will continue to feature a displaced upper level high from southern Arizona down into southern Texas along with lower heights across southern Canada. This will result in mean mid-upper level flow pattern from generally the west- northwest across the Rockies and adjacent Great Plains, favoring more mesoscale convective systems (MCS) impacting western Kansas.

For today and tonight, a healthy MCS continued to pull away from southwest Kansas moving into the heart of Oklahoma as of 06Z Monday. In its wake, slightly cooler and continued moist air will remain, fostering the development of widespread stratus cloud, which was already expanding across western Kansas per GOES Nighttime Microphysics RGB and METAR observations. The stratus will most likely continue through late morning and perhaps into the early afternoon hours, as the latest 00Z run of the HREF maintains fairly high probabilities of 3kft or lower ceilings even through 18Z Monday (40-60% across much of west central into southwest Kansas). The stratus will eventually scatter out early-mid afternoon, allowing temperatures to warm into the lower 80s for afternoon highs. The diurnal veering of surface winds from east to southeast late in the day and evening in this pattern will enhance upslope lift across the higher terrain of Colorado and thunderstorms will develop once again out to our west and northwest. It does not appear, though, that Monday night's MCS event will be as robust as the last two nights across western Kansas, mainly due to weaker overall forcing for ascent and slightly more stable lower troposphere. Nevertheless, the continued zonal west-northwest flow pattern at 500mb will continue to favor at least weak MCS activity across our region. This is borne out with the SPC Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) across eastern Colorado, touching the western KS line with Marginal Risk (1 of 5) extending into southwest Kansas.

The general synoptic pattern will remain in place much of the week with lower heights across the north and a subtropical high well to the south, centered over southwest Texas and into northern Mexico. High Plains severe weather risk will continue each day/night this pattern holds, and latest indications are this will hold through Friday/Friday Night. The break in this pattern will come once a strong Pacific polar jet enters the western CONUS, which all global models and ensemble systems show, starting next weekend, effectively shifting the thunderstorm risk well off to our north and western Kansas sees an increase in hot southerly/southwesterly winds. Depending on timing, this pattern definitely supports at least a couple days of triple-digit afternoon temperatures. There remains much to unpack in the details at this time frame, of course, but there are increasing signals of a very hot pattern coming up next weekend across the Central Plains.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 506 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Prevailing low level stratus producing IFR cigs in vicinity of all TAF sites through mid/late morning is expected to begin lifting/scattering out through the afternoon, allowing VFR conditions to return generally after 17-19Z. Light northeasterly winds through mid-day are forecast to turn more east-southeasterly this afternoon as surface high pressure slides southeast through the Upper Midwest.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.