textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal risk for isolated wind gusts in excess of 50 mph late tonight

- A slight chance for severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon east of highway 283. The main risk will be strong gusty winds and hail being possible Monday afternoon.

- Very windy and colder temperatures possible on Tuesday as the precipitation tapers off early in the day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1023 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Earlier this Sunday evening there was already a line of thunderstorms occurring ahead of an short wave trough which was preceding the main, stronger, upper level trough currently crossing the four corners areas. Models have not changed much over the past 24 hours with the first upper wave crossing southwest Kansas overnight with the main upper low then moving across western Kansas on late Monday/Monday night and deepening. This will result in two opportunities for thunderstorms, (overnight and again late Monday/Monday night) a few storms may be strong or severe. The better opportunity for severe thunderstorms will be late Monday when the main upper level trough begins to cross western Kansas. Very windy conditions will also be possible as this upper level trough crosses western Kansas which will initially result in highs in the 70 due to the potential for deep mixing which will allow unseasonably warm ahead of approaching cold front mixing down to the surface. This will then be followed by a strong cold front late Monday as gusty northwest winds usher colder air into the area Monday night and Tuesday. This colder air mass settling into southwest Kansas on Tuesday combined with clouds and lingering precipitation will result in highs Tuesday afternoon only in the 50s. Combine this with possible wind gusts in excess of 45 mph then wind chills may struggle to get much higher the mid 40s Tuesday afternoon.

Marginal risk for isolated wind gusts in excess of 50 mph late tonight For late tonight...An upper level short wave trough will precede the main upper level trough and move across southwest Kansas overnight. Ahead of this initial upper wave a line of thunderstorms had already developed across southeast Colorado and New Mexico and as of 04z was approaching southwest Kansas. Models are in good agreement with this line of thunderstorms moving east/northeast across southwest Kansas overnight as the upper level trough passes. Main risk from a few of the stronger storms will be wind gusts greater than 50 mph given forecast downdraft capes.

A slight chance for severe thunderstorms capable of producing strong gusty winds and hail being possible Monday afternoon. On Monday...A brief break in the precipitation will occur across southwest Kansas early in the day an our initial upper wave exits the area and the primary upper level trough moves across the Rockies and out into the West Central High Plains. Increasing southerly winds ahead will draw higher moisture back into southwest Kansas as a strong cold front moves across southwest Kansas and another surface boundary remains nearly stationary east of highway 283. As this cold front over takes the other surface boundary late day the low level forcing/moisture convergence will improve along the boundary east of highway 183 which will allow scattered thunderstorms to develop (increasing from <10% to near 40% after 21z) given improving synoptic upper level lift ahead of the upper trough and 0-6km shear(>50knots). Early in this event there will be a risk of large hail with these storms given the potential for a few discrete supercells, however these storms is expected to then quickly become a line and surge east which favors strong gusty winds. The storm prediction center does mention the small chance for tornadoes across central Kansas with this line as it moves east late Monday but at this time the better tornado potential may end up being east of Pratt and Medicine Lodge and the low level shear improves due to the evening low level jet. We will be monitoring this area (Pratt/Medicine Lodge) closely after 5pm but at this time it appears that any tornado risk will be east of this area. These storms currently are expected to move east of Pratt and Medicine Lodge by 7pm. Another area of thunderstorms will be possible Monday night further west near the 500mb deformation zone at it moves across southwest Kansas. Gusty winds will also accompany some of these storms but the severe weather risk will be low.

Very windy and colder temperatures possible on Tuesday as the precipitation tapers off early in the day. A tight surface pressure gradient and 850mb winds of around 45 knots will spread across southwest Kansas Monday night and continue on Tuesday as a strong cold front crosses southwest Kansas on Monday. This will easily supports the current NBM forecast with wind gusts around 40 mph range Monday night and Tuesday, however based on the forecast 850mb winds of along with the tight surface pressure gradient/cold air advection it appears even these gusty winds may end up being be a little low. As a result would not be surprised if gusts end up in some areas as high as 45 to near 50 mph at times Tuesday afternoon as several of the BUFR soundings suggest via momentum transfer. This is also in around the 75th percentile. These gusty winds will usher our next shot of colder air quickly into southwest Kansas Monday night with the majority of the models showing the 850mb temperature falling from near 15C at 6pm Monday to around 5C by 6am Tuesday where it will change very little through the day. As a result of this the highs Tuesday in the mid 50s to around 60 still looks on track but also keep in mind the it will feel even cooler than this given the gusty northwest winds. Wind Chills as low as the 40s not completely out of the question (10-30% chance) Tuesday afternoon. Also be prepared for some chilly wind chills Monday mornings. Some locations west of highway 283 may observe wind chills in the low to mid 30s. Winds will decrease Tuesday night and given clear skies the lows by early Wednesday morning are expected to bottom our in the mid 30s west of highway 83.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 421 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Early morning showers and isolated thunderstorms will move away from southwest Kansas, however another round of showers and storms will develop along an advancing cold front, most focused near an upper level low center, mainly late afternoon/evening. Very strong north winds will develop behind the front, advancing on GCK airport first early this evening, followed by LBL and DDC, then eventually HYS airport by mid evening. High wind gusts of 50 knots or higher will be possible, particularly around heavier showers. After a period of VFR flight category today, IFR/MVFR ceiling due to lowering stratus is likely behind the cold front this evening.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.