textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- The majority of the beneficial rain event has ended, but scattered showers will persist Monday afternoon and night, mainly southeast of Dodge City.

- Dry weather returns Tuesday through Thursday, with both morning and afternoon temperatures well above normal for late October.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to return Friday, favoring the southeast zones.

- No cold air intrusions are expected through Sunday, with south winds prevailing and no frost or freezes. The next strong cold front is forecast to arrive next Monday, with strong north winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Shortwave trough was ejecting into the central plains at midday as expected, with the trailing trough axis bisecting SW KS. Late morning radar showed the final stratiform rain band weakening and exiting the eastern zones, and the majority of the rain event has ended. Rainfall amounts from this event have been commonly 0.5 - 1 inch, with highest amounts near Hugoton, near 2 inches. Additional rainfall over the northeast panhandles and northwest Oklahoma will enter the southeast zones through this afternoon. Models suggest additional scattered showers will redevelop this afternoon into tonight, as final trailing shortwaves arrive, and before the primary trough axis ejects eastward. This activity will be much more scattered in nature versus the stratiform rain of the previous 2 days. As such, NBM pops for tonight seem too wet, but were accepted in the likely to definite category. Instability has been weak to absent through this event, and will continue to be the case, as such thunder will be limited to absent through tonight. Additional rainfall through Tuesday morning will favor areas southeast of Dodge City. Minimum temperatures sunrise Tuesday morning will remain well above normal, mid 40s north to mid 50s southeast.

Widespread stratus Tuesday morning is expected to dissolve through the day, with subsidence clearing the sky and ending all rainfall. Models show modest warming of the lower atmosphere Tuesday, and along with improved southerly mixing and more sunshine, temperatures will warm several degrees into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Stronger warming is expected Wednesday, with afternoon temperatures well into the upper 70s to near 80 - 10 to 15 degrees above late October normals. Wednesday and Thursday will both remain dry, with continued well above normal afternoon temperatures in the 70s.

Friday, a strong 540 dm closed cyclone is expected to remain stationary over the Pacific Northwest. In response, broad SWly midlevel flow will be maintained across the Rockies and over the plains, ensuring a continuation of southerly surface flow and mild temperatures. Models maintain continuity from previous runs suggesting a tropical moisture source (some of it remnant moisture from Pacific tropical cyclone Vance) will become entrained in the SW midlevel flow, with showers and thunderstorms returning to SW KS on Friday. Pops and rainfall amounts will favor the southeast zones as the current NBM pop alignment in the grids suggests.

Unseasonably warm southerly flow will continue through Sunday, and into November, with both afternoon and sunrise temperatures well above normal. Models hint a strong trough and associated cold front passage around Monday November 2nd. Winds may approach high wind criteria with this system, but it is much too soon for any details.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 533 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions will be found around the TAF sites overnight with a thick deck of stratus. There could be some lower visibilities around the DDC and GCK terminals after 06Z into the early morning hours. Winds will generally be light and variable through tomorrow.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.