textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- There are moderate to high chances (40-70%) for t-storms this afternoon and tonight. These storms could be severe with damaging winds and large hail.

- Extreme heat can be expected Sunday and Monday and possibly Tuesday, with highs from 105 to 110 degrees.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1254 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

A weak disturbance over the Intermountain West will approach the high plains this afternoon. Abundant low level moisture over north Texas and southwest Oklahoma is forecast to surge northward today ahead of a dry line as a warm front lifts north. The intersection of the dry line and front will be a favored area for t-storms with daytime heating. 0-6 km bulk shear is marginally favorable for supercells with very large hail. However, the upper level shear (500-200mb) is quite weak so that updrafts will tend to collapse quickly, precluding long-lived supercells with very large hail. There will be a large hail concern initially; but very warm temperatures at mid to upper levels (500mb temperature of -4C) and the weak upper level shear will tend to limit hail size, with storms transitioning to outflow dominated and linear structures. Damaging wind gusts are the main concern. Upscale growth into a larger storm cluster is likely during the evening, which is the reasoning behind the forecasted high rain chances, especially from Dodge City northward to I-70. A heat advisory was issued for locations south of Dodge City for today as dew point temperatures in the upper 60s combine with actual temperatures from 100 to 103 to yield heat indices from 105 to 108.

An upper level ridge will gradually build across the high plains over the weekend, resulting in a warming trend and dry weather. The various ensemble means indicate a likelihood for temperatures between 105 and 110 degrees. Temperatures from the national blend of models (NBM), which often struggles during extreme events, is several degrees too cool for this heat wave and only shows 102 for Sunday and 103 for Monday. The intense heat will persist through Tuesday before the upper level ridge becomes suppressed southward once again, allowing a weak cold front to pass. But temperatures may reach 100 degrees even on Wednesday and Thursday from Dodge City southward. One positive is that the deep vertical mixing that helps create the heat will also tend to dilute the low level moisture in the vertical, resulting in heat indices that are equal to or a little below the actual temperature. However, look for the moisture to increase as the front passes, which may keep heat indices on the high side. There are small chances for t-storms by late next week as the front arrives; but any significant rains will be isolated.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 434 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

VFR will continue through this TAF period, outside the influence of any thunderstorms. After 15z Thu, elevated southeast winds are expected at all airports, gusting 25-28 kts. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by 00z Fri, and included VCTS/CB mentions and convective TEMPO groups where appropriate. Models suggest thunderstorm coverage will favor areas from near GCK to near HYS, with the primary risk being outflow wind gusts up to 50 kts.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ087-088.