textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front will enter southwest Kansas today, and meander across the region through Thursday. A temperature range will result: coolest I-70 to hottest near Oklahoma.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today through Thursday with this nearly stationary frontal boundary in the vicinity, particularly during the afternoon and evening hours each day.

- Afternoon temperatures will be held near August normals through midweek, before the heat rebuilds quickly this weekend. Widespread 100s likely Saturday through Tuesday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Late tonight, a fairly disorganized area of showers and isolated thunderstorms were moving east along the I-70 corridor, tied to a cold frontal zone. The disorganization is largely due to lack of appreciable moisture and instability (MUCAPE 500 J/kg or less). This will be a continuing theme along this frontal zone as it continues to move slowly south across southwest Kansas on Tuesday then again Wednesday. For this reason, there is a very low probability of severe storms with this front, and even the chances of widespread rainfall amounts of 1/4" or higher are dwindling in the forecast. Low level moisture transport will favor central and south central Kansas, perhaps including our eastern counties, generally along/east of Highway 183 later Wednesday and Thursday Night.

The cold front later on today will will provide a nice respite from the heat, if only for a couple of days. Afternoon temperatures today will likely track closer to the NBM 25th percentile given the fairly strong north-northeast winds and some increased cloud cover (highs of around 80 at Scott City to WaKeeney). Along and south of the slow- moving front, upper 90s to near 100 are likely once again, generally southeast of a Meade to Larned line -- especially down in the typically hot Red Hills region.

The frontal zone will likely be along the Oklahoma line late Wednesday and lift slowly back north as a warm front Thursday, and as long as the front remains around our southwest Kansas region, the temperature forecasting will continue to be a challenge (mainly afternoon temperatures). NBM ranges 82 WaKeeney to 101 Medicine Lodge Wednesday with upper 90s/near 100 advancing slowly north into far southwest Kansas Thursday as the frontal zone lifts back north. If the front bisects southwest Kansas from west-northwest to east- southeast, we will likely see strong to marginally severe thunderstorms develop. Thursday late afternoon/evening will likely be the best chance for the most organized thunderstorm activity -- again mainly eastern areas where dewpoints will be higher closer to central and south central Kansas.

This weekend into much of next week, the summer subtropical high will expand across the Rockies and central High Plains again, favoring another 3+ day heat wave beginning as early as Friday in the southwest. Latest official forecast has at least three-quarters of the DDC CWA 100+ highs beginning Sunday, continuing through Tuesday. Upper end high temperature potential (90th percentile NBM) shows some 105-106F highs across portions of mainly far southwest Kansas and also up toward Hays Sunday through Tuesday of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 508 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue to drift east through southwest Kansas into central Kansas through daybreak before dissipating by mid/late morning, potentially affecting the vicinity of all TAF sites. Otherwise, expect widespread VFR conditions to persist through late evening. North-northeast winds 10 to 20kt with gusts up to 25kt will continue to develop west to east across southwest Kansas through late afternoon in wake of a slowly advancing weak cold front.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.