textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorm chances (50-70%) pick up across portions of southwest Kansas this evening.

- Seasonable temperatures likely through the end of the week.

Update

Issued at 711 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

**MESOSCALE DISCUSSION**

The bottom line: the severe threat continues for the next few hours.

We have received a few wind reports around 60 mph thunderstorm wind gusts so far. The line of storms has thickened and intensified recently as the storms interact with dewpoints around 70F and significant CAPE. Our 00Z RAOB measured CAPE as high as 4800 J/kg in association with significant boundary layer moisture. There is still a drier layer between 850 hPa and 500 hPa, which indicates a thermo profile that is conducive for microbursts. In fact, DCAPE has increased to 1074 J/kg downstream of the storms in between the 18Z and 00Z RAOBs. Mesoscale models like the HRRR and WoFS indicate these storms will continue to move E to NE and the threat of severe storms will continue for the next few hours.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1204 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

WV imagery indicates a southwest flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains downstream of a deepening upper level trough shifting slowly east into the Four Corners Region. Near the surface, a stalled frontal boundary extends from extreme southwest Kansas northeastward into north central Kansas.

Thunderstorm chances (50-70%) pick up this evening with the SREF indicating an embedded upper level shortwave lifting northeast through the Four Corners Region into the northern Colorado Rockies late this afternoon. In response, developing low pressure in vicinity of extreme southeast Colorado is projected to strengthen as it begins to lift slowly north, dislodging the aforementioned boundary in southwest Kansas northward. Meanwhile, prevailing southerlies ahead of a retreating dryline will help enhance moisture advection into central and much of southwest Kansas with surface dewpoints pushing well up into the 60s(F) to near 70F, providing ample instability with MUCAPE values upward of 2500 to 3000 J/kg. In conjunction with steepening mid-level lapse rates late this afternoon, H5 vort maxima ejecting northeast out of the Desert Southwest into the high plains of eastern Colorado will interact with the dryline, triggering thunderstorm development. Storms are then expected to spread northeast through extreme southwest Kansas this evening. This is supported by CAMs and the latest HREF showing a 50-70% probability of 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.25 of an inch in a southwest-northeast axis across extreme southwest Kansas with lesser amounts to the east into central Kansas by late evening. Similar conditions are forecast Wednesday with little change to the overall pattern expected.

Above normal temperatures are forecast for tonight once again as prevailing southerlies continue to reinforce a warmer air mass across the area, not to mention surface dewpoints holding in the 60s(F) to near 70F. Expect lows generally down into the 70s(F). Look for afternoon highs back up into the 90s(F) Wednesday with the HREF painting a widespread 80-90% probability of temperatures topping 90F. Similar temperatures are likely Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 500 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Thunderstorms developing in southeast Colorado and the western Oklahoma Panhandle will move northeast through southwest Kansas this evening, potentially affecting the vicinity of all TAF sites generally after 01-03Z. Otherwise, expected mainly VFR conditions through early Wednesday afternoon. Southerly winds 10 to 20kt with gusts up to around 30kt are forecast to persist through much of the period as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored in eastern Colorado.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.