textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Many locations will remain dry Wednesday night in the dry slot. Severe thunderstorms possible southeast of Dodge City Wednesday evening.

- Rain will redevelop Thursday in the wrap around moisture, with 1/2 to 1 inch amounts likely. Unseasonably cool with elevated northeast winds and temperatures struggling in the 60s.

- The coolest temperatures of the season are forecast for Saturday morning, well down into the 40s.

- A long dry stretch is expected this weekend through next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1130 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Midday radar and satellite imagery depicted the remnant mid level vorticity max from Pacific Hurricane Polo, moving northeast across SW KS. Widespread moderate to heavy rain was associated with this feature. Primary closed, extratropical cyclone was still back over New Mexico. Surface analysis depicted the primary surface cyclone over the NW Panhandles, expected to translate into the southeast zones this afternoon. Mesoanalysis already depicts enough bulk shear and storm relative helicity to support rotating updrafts, favoring the southeast counties, with meaningful instability poised south of the Oklahoma border (CAPE > 1000 J/kg). Through the afternoon, a midlevel dryslot will work its way north into SW KS, pushing stratiform rain north, allowing instability and clearing to spread north, and encourage rapidly redeveloping scattered thunderstorms to develop after 2 pm. With extremely low LCLs, and a saturated tropical environment and strong low level shear, weak tropical tornadoes are expected. These are not the same animals as supercell tornadoes of our spring seasons, but are still capable of causing minor damage, and any tornado watches and warnings still need to be respected through this evening. Special weather statements highlighting weak tornadoes may also be issued from DDC for some of these storms.

Tonight, as the hurricane remnants eject north into Nebraska and Iowa, the extratropical cutoff midlevel cyclone will be ejecting northeastward into the western zones through sunrise Thursday. Although chance category pops remain tonight, to catch any scattered activity, a significant lull in activity is expected tonight as the midlevel dry slot prevails. Widespread deformation rainfall is expected to be confined to southeast Colorado and adjacent far western zones through 7 am Thursday.

Models forecast the closed midlevel cyclone to weaken into an open shortwave trough, and eject eastward directly over Kansas daylight Thursday. Guidance continues to trend slightly southward with the primary deformation lift Thursday, and pop grids remain in the likely/definite categories much of Thursday for many zones as a result. Another 1/2 to 1 inch of rain is probable Thursday, especially where the preferred deformation axis sets up. Associated cold front arrives Thursday afternoon with increasing/elevated northeast winds, and temperatures struggling to get out of the 60s. Maintained the inherited flood watch to cover hydrologic impacts of deformation rainfall falling on saturated soils.

Subsidence takes over rapidly Thursday night, with a clear sky and strong surface ridging building south into Kansas through sunrise Friday. Friday promises to deliver a beautiful fall afternoon, with sunshine, temperatures in the 60s, and light winds. A clear sky, light winds, and 1025 mb surface ridging will provide strong radiational cooling Friday night and Saturday morning, providing the coolest temperatures so far this young fall season. NBM temperatures in the 40s Saturday morning were accepted. A long stretch of dry weather is expected this weekend through next week, with a benign synoptic pattern and ridging prevailing over the Rockies.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 500 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Radar imagery at 22z Wed indicated much of the shower and thunderstorm activity had ended near the airports, as the dryslot has overspread SW KS. Dry weather is expected to prevail at the airports through 12z Thu. High confidence that widespread IFR/LIFR stratus will spread across all of SW KS through 12z Thu, behind a passing cold front with a NEly wind shift. After 12z Thu, widespread rain and degraded flight categories are expected in the deformation zone. Strong northeast winds are expected Thursday, gusting 25-30 kts. Rapidly improving flying weather is expected Thursday night as subsidence takes control.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Thursday evening for KSZ030-031-043>046- 061>065-074>078-084>087.