textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Another day of high fire danger today

- Very warm Sunday

- Unsettled next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1125 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

A high plains lee trough will prevail across Colorado today. This will result in a tightening pressure gradient across western Kansas. As a result, breezy southerly winds are expected today with winds blowing in the 20 to 35 mph range and gusts in the 40s. Highs today will range from the 70s west to the 60s east. The combination of the warmth and winds will result in another day of high fire danger. A Red Flag Warning is currently in effect for the entire FA and burning is not be done. Otherwise, the warm southerly breezes will continue through the overnight period. This will result in more mild lows tonight with values in the 40s.

Downslope is expected Sunday. 850 hPa temperatures will increase in the 20C to 25C range. This supports highs well into the 80s, and actually 90F readings may be realized west of Highway 283. Afternoon relative humidities will bottom out even lower Sunday afternoon, given the very warm temperatures. The fire danger, though, might be mitigated somewhat as the sfc trof fragments and moves farther east. This will result in weaker wind magnitudes overall. Still, given the expanding drought and continued dry conditions... burning is discouraged Sunday.

The same weather pattern of downsloping and warm conditions will continue Monday. Will have to monitor wind speeds Monday. Downslope westerly winds may be a bit stronger and that may result in near or approaching Red Flag conditions for that day. Something to monitor. Highs will be in the 90s with lows in the 40s to 50s.

A dry fropa is expected Tuesday. Both the GEFS and ENS ensembles are in agreement that this should be a dry fropa. Highs should cool back down to the 60s and 70s Tuesday. Freezing lows looks certainly possible by Wednesday morning.

Confidence drops off Wednesday night into Thursday. The latest NBM has chance pops and unsettled weather during this period. Looking and both the GEFS and ENS ensembles, this unsettled solution may not be supported by most of the members. Much of the ensemble members keep the highest QPF east and southeast of the FA. Thus, not confident at all with these pops. Climo would favor our area missing out on the precip for this time of year.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1111 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

VFR is expected through TAF pd. A high plains lee trough will prevail today across Colorado. This will lead to a tight pressure gradient across western Kansas. As a result... southerly winds will blow 20-30 kt with gusts 32-40 kt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1125 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Another day of near to Red Flag conditions today. It will be warmer than yesterday with highs in the 60s to 70s. A high plains lee trough will prevail across Colorado, which will result in a tight pressure gradient across western Kansas. This will result in winds blowing 20 to 35 mph with gusts in the 40s. Afternoon relative humidities will bottom out in the 10 to 20 percent range. The combination of these two spells out the concern of another day of high fire danger. Do not burn!

Sunday will be even warmer. However, the sfc trof will fragment and move farther east, resulting in weaker winds overall. So Sunday is not a slam dunk Red Flag day, but a limited to perhaps elevated threat may be realized given relative humidities bottoming out in the 5 to 20 percent range. Burning is discouraged.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ Saturday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.