textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures through Monday with widespread daily highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

- Record high on Monday likely to be challenges across southwest Kansas, including Dodge City, as the October 12th record high of 94F is around the 33rd percentile of latest NBM ensemble suite.

- Increased severe weather risk late Tuesday and Tuesday Night ahead of next large storm system with continued rain chances beyond Tuesday Night, perhaps into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Very warm, and even borderline hot, temperatures this weekend through Monday as a southwest downslope plume overspreads the Central and Southern High Plains. Monday still looks to be the warmest day with widespread highs in the lower 90s. The record high for Dodge City on October 12th (Monday) is 94F, which is around the 33rd percentile off the 01Z run of the NBM, so the record high is well within the envelope of "reasonable" forecast high range (25- 75th percentile) based on NBM percentile data. Increased challenges in the forecast exist after Monday as a fairly shallow cold front pushes south across Nebraska into Kansas Monday Night into Tuesday. The front position late Tuesday remains highly uncertain as it will likely slow down quite a bit facing a strong southwest flow pattern aloft. That being said, the air mass behind the front early next week will be quite cool, so some semblance of a density current will exist, and the SLP tendencies behind the front will probably be fairly high which would keep the front moving, perhaps more so than current models show. Thus, this will have an impact on afternoon highs Tuesday as well as placement of greatest severe weather risk.

Regardless of the severe weather risk Tuesday afternoon/evening, rain chances still look pretty good as deep moisture will move up into the Southern High Plains thanks to remnants of Pacific tropical system become infused in the southwest flow pattern aloft as a polar trough/upper low moves across the Rockies. Models are still all over the place with evolution of the upper level jet/trough/upper low moving across the central CONUS mid next week, so expect further adjustments in precipitation chances/timing going into the late Tuesday through Thursday time frame.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1111 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Good aviation weather is expected through this TAF period, particularly in terms of flight category with VFR expected through this period and well afterwards. A deepening pressure gradient will result in stronger winds with south-southwest winds increasing to 20 to 24 knots sustained from late morning through early evening Saturday. Gusts at times are expected to be in the 30 to 35 knot range.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.