textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm weather and unseasonably light winds are forecast through Saturday.

- A dry cold front will bring strong north winds and cooler temperatures on Sunday.

- A warming trend is forecast for early next week, with temperatures returning to much warmer than average.

- No precipitation is expected for the next week to ten days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Upper level ridging and downslope trajectories will lead to near record highs Friday and Saturday. The record high for Saturday at Dodge City is 94. A few locations could reach the upper 90s, especially in Clark and Comanche counties on the lower terrain as air has farther to downslope there.

A shortwave trough traversing the northern tier will shove a cold front southward into Kansas by Sunday morning. Downslope winds and vertical mixing will keep temperatures mild in the 50s to near 60 early Sunday morning ahead of the front, with highs in the mid 60s (north) to near 70 (south) reached before noon. But with cold advection setting in, temperatures will hold steady or fall a few degrees later in the morning and into the afternoon. Given the strong pressure gradient, expect strong north winds Sunday through mid-day. The 90th percentile of the NBM gives 45-50 mph gusts; and this is what we fully expect given the strong 850mb winds of 40-50 kts. Despite the cooler air arriving, temperatures will stay near to a little above freezing Monday morning, with 32 to 38 degree readings common.

Upper level ridging will return by early to mid next week, with temperatures once again warming into the 80s and 90s by Wednesday ahead of the next front. Temperatures by Thursday and Friday will likely drop back into the 60s and 70s for highs, and possibly cooler, with lows in the 30s.

The various ensemble means indicate very low chances for measurable precipitation over the next week (10% or less). Pattern recognition suggests a dry forecast with not even a trace of precipitation.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 455 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

The prolonged period of very dry weather and VFR flight category will continue through Friday. Light and variable winds will gradually become westerly in the 08-12Z time frame early Friday morning. Winds will then increase slightly in speed to 12 to 15 knots by mid-morning out of the northwest as a weak pressure trough moves across Kansas. Much like today, the winds will decrease by mid to late afternoon to light and variable.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for KSZ030-031-045-046-063>066-075>081-084>090.