textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures today

- Warm up Sunday-Tuesday; near-record warmth

- Precipitation chances return Tuesday/Wednesday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1016 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Current RAP mesoanalysis has a strong closed low off the coast of the CA/Mexico border. The most important and impactful aspect of the forecast hinges on this low and its' movement in the coming days. In the meantime, a more synoptic zonal like flow will take hold aloft into tomorrow. With the flow and low pressure system clogging up the pattern, very quiet weather is expected until it is dislodged. Highs today worked to recover after last night's cold front, but tomorrow will be significantly warmer. Highs Sunday are currently forecast to push into the 70s. Monday will be even warmer, and much warmer than normal for this time of the year. Ensembles have the entire CWA at >70% to see highs in the 80s. Tuesday is currently forecast to have similar highs as Monday, but some timing uncertainty is still present with a cold front.

This timing is dictated on when that closed low ejects and moves northeastward towards the CWA. Ensembles currently have the timing of this around early Tuesday with some variation. The question is where the dryslot of the system occurs. Ensembles continue to trend in a slightly wetter direction for the CWA. Areas east of Highway 283 now have a 50% chance or higher via ensembles. SPC and other severe probabilities are contained to east of the forecast area, but this far out that could change significantly between now and then. Additionally, the areas of heaviest rain is progged by ensembles in the far eastern zones and into central Kansas. Temperatures then will nearly repeat these next few days with Wednesday being significantly cooler (highs in the 50s) with the end of the week warmer in the 70s. With the exception of potentially elevated conditions Wednesday, winds are forecast to be light enough to not warrant a fire weather risk at this time. With no fog or fire weather on the horizon pairing with seasonal temperatures, no active weather is anticipated through the forecast period other than the precipitation/severe chances on Tuesday/Wednesday. Especially with ensembles having zonal flow taking back over, the synoptic pattern support the anticipated quiet weather through the forecast period and beyond.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1016 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

VFR conditions are forecast for all sites through the TAF period. A weak surface high has shifted winds and they have settled out of the southwest. Some minor fluctuations in speed and direction are expected while remaining out of the southwest through the period at 5-10 KTs . Clear skies and visibilities should culminate in ideal flying conditions.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.