textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Southwest Kansas will remain dry for the foreseeable future.

- Seasonably hot temperatures in the 90s each afternoon, with a very slow warming trend through the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1145 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Southeast Kansas today is situated between a surface high in the Mid Mississippi Valley and a trough of low pressure at the surface over eastern Colorado. Western Kansas also was located on the southern fringe of an unseasonably warm upper level ridge which extended from the Northern Plains into the Western Great Lakes Region. Large scale subsidence was occurring beneath this upper highs and will inhibit any organized convection...however there does appear to be a slight chance for a few isolated rain showers through evening across south central and maybe even portions of southwest Kansas as a weak upper level disturbance moves east to west across Kansas. While the probability of precipitation remains low (less than 10%), several models in the near term have had run to run consistences indicating at this may occur. Despite this potential the majority of south central and southwest Kansas will no see any precipitation.

Although the probability of precipitation will be very low through early this evening (<10%), our confidence in the afternoon temperatures on Wednesday remains highs (>80%). Ensembles continue to show run to run consistency with 850mb temperatures late Wednesday ranging from 20 to 25C . This is within a degree or two of what is currently expected late today (7pm CDT Tuesday) As a result of this little change in 850mb temperatures between late Tuesday and late Wednesday the highs on Wednesday will be almost a carbon copy of Tuesday afternoon temperatures.

High temperatures will warm a few degrees late week as an upper level trough begins to rotate around the upper high that will be located across the Northern Plains. As this upper trough move from the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Plains...a trough of low pressure at the surface will start to deepen along the lee of the Rockies along with a slow warming trend in temperatures occurring across the west Central High Plains. While this will not be a significant warm up an, temperatures across southwest Kansas are expected to climb into the low to mid 90s by late week for many locations on Friday.

Ensembles then weaken the upper level ridge as it retrogrades towards the western United States over the weekend and early next week. This shift will bring a northwest flow across the Rockies and allow a surface cold front to move into southwest Kansas by Monday. South of this cold front the potential for highs around 100 degrees will be possible given the unseasonably warm 850mb temperatures forecast ahead of this boundary (850mb temperatures in the upper 20s to near 30C). In contrast north of this boundary the highs may struggle to climb only into the mid 90s. At this time based on the majority of the ensemble clusters late this weekend this cold front will be located north of the I-70 area on Sunday so the unseasonably warm air ahead of the cold front will cover all of southwest Kansas. On Monday this cold front will be located in southwest Kansas with the warmest air currently is forecast to be locates south and west of the Dodge City area. Currently there is a 30-70% chance for highs to be 100 degrees or a little warmer on Sunday while on Monday the highest chances for 100 degree highs (40-70%) will be located near and southwest of a Garden City to Dodge City to Pratt line.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 531 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Excellent flying weather will continue through this TAF period, with VFR/SKC and light southeast winds prevailing. Another crop of broken cumulus are expected after 18z Wed, and southeast winds will gust 20-25 kts after 18z Wed.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.