textproduct: Dodge City
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Widespread rain and thunderstorms today; severe weather not expected
- Frost and freeze potential late this week
DISCUSSION
Issued at 147 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
The system that brought yesterday evening's severe weather episode is continuing to depart the area as the cold front has shifted well south of the forecast area. The next system of note is right on its heels in the form of a closed mid to upper low over the Four Corners region. This feature will move eastward through the morning, bringing enhanced upper-level divergence over the region. Renewed surface low development is expected, increasing widespread rain and thunderstorm chances. Given our areas position on the cool side of the boundary, severe weather is not anticipated with any thunderstorm activity today. The surface will be stable with temperatures mainly in the 50s across the area, though some 60s are possible along the KS/OK border. Rainfall will continue into early Thursday morning. Regarding temperatures today and tomorrow, have continued the idea of greatly lowering high temperatures compared to the NBM output. It continues to struggle with the shallow cold, post frontal airmass.
Temperatures are expected to remain rather cool for the remainder of the week with high temperatures in the 50s and 60s and lows in the 50s dropping into the 30s and 40s by the end of the week. The potential for frost does exist for Thursday night into Friday morning, though cloud cover may be a limiting factor. Western and northern zones may have the best chance at frost development, but confidence is low at this time. Friday night into Saturday morning has the best chance to see freezing temperatures. Current forecast calls for widespread 30s, with below freezing west of Route 283. Probabilities of temperatures 32 or less are 50-70%. Unless things change drastically before then, would guess Frost/Freeze headlines being needed.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026
IFR to LIFR conditions will prevail through tonight as low clouds and low ceilings remain across western Kansas. Winds will generally be form the northeast through this evening, shifting to the north to northwest by sunrise tomorrow.
DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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