textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Intense cold front will arrive during the predawn hours Sunday morning.

- Intense north winds expected Sunday, gusting 60-70 mph. Areas of blowing dust and difficult travel are expected.

- A hard freeze is expected Monday morning, in the teens.

- A very rapid warming trend is expected next week, with unseasonably hot afternoons near 90 expected Thursday onward.

- Outside of sprinkles or flurries Sunday morning, southwest Kansas will remain dry for at least the next 10 days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

An upper level trough will dive down across the Plains through tomorrow and help push a strong surface cold front through the area tonight. Mostly clear skies and wind from the south are expected throughout the remainder of today with high clouds increasing in coverage this evening. RHs will dip into the teens to single digits across our western half of the forecast area this afternoon. This in combination of gusty winds will create a near critical fire danger. A Red Flag warning is in effect to account for this. The cold front is progged to move through the area after midnight with strong gusts behind this front. The strongest winds are expected through tomorrow with some gusts over 60 mph likely. Since we haven't had any significant precipitation lately some blowing dust will also be expected through the day tomorrow. Wind speeds then decrease late afternoon into tomorrow evening and continue to be from the north through tomorrow night. As for temperatures, highs today are expected to reach into the low 80s with upper 70s across central Kansas. Lows tonight will range from the upper 20s across west central Kansas to mid 40s across central Kansas. Highs tomorrow will most likely be felt early in the morning with steady or decreasing temperatures in the afternoon. Expect temperatures in the afternoon to range from the upper 30s across west central Kansas to low 50s across south central Kansas. With the strong winds and cold air advection, expect wind chills in the 20s throughout the day. Lows tomorrow night will dip into the teens with wind chills in the single digits.

The weather pattern throughout the remainder of the forecast will see an upper level ridge above the western United States with an upper level trough over the eastern United States. This places northwest flow above western Kansas suppressing any significant weather from occurring. Winds will shift back to the south Monday and continue through mid week. Long range ensemble models show a weak cold front to move through the area Thursday but no precipitation is expected. As for temperatures, expect another cold day Monday with highs ranging from the low 40s across central Kansas to low 50s across far western Kansas. We then rebound into the 70s Tuesday with 80s mid to late week. A few places across far southwestern Kansas may reach the lower 90s, especially late week. Lows will dip into the 20s Tuesday morning with 40s and 50s for the remainder of the forecast.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 500 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Outside of any blowing dust reducing visibility Sunday, VFR is expected to prevail through the upcoming TAF period, with variable amounts of mid/high clouds. Elevated south winds at 22z Sat will veer NWly overnight. A strong cold front will arrive at the airports around 12z Sun. Intense north winds will impact aviation operations through Sunday, gusting 45-55 kts, with areas of reduced visibility in blowing dust. Winds will diminish rapidly to light NWly after 00z Mon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Lower dewpoints will advect in from the west today. This will result in humidity bottoming out in the 10-15% range. The lee trough will continue with breezy southerly winds. The combination of the low relative humidity, warm highs, and breezy winds will result in Red Flag conditions for a portion of southwest Kansas. A Red Flag Warning is in effect.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ030-043>045-061>064-074>078-084>088. High Wind Warning from 5 AM CDT /4 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Sunday for KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090.