textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible tonight/early Saturday morning across especially along the KS/OK state line

- Highs will warm up to the 80s Sunday where they will reside through next week

- Precipitation chances return around the middle of next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1148 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

The synoptic pattern aloft continues to be headlined by a deep trough that has begun to move over the Great Plains. Nearer to the surface, there are two robust surface low pressures in South Dakota and western Texas; both systems has produced storms this evening. While western Kansas sits under a high pressure, the forecast focus is on precipitation potential late tonight and into Saturday. CAMs continue to have no agreement on the Texas storms' northward propagation ahead of the low pressure. At the absolute extreme end, some marginally severe storms may push into the far southern counties of SW Kansas around midnight, but this seems rather unlikely. Ensembles have the probability of thunder only around 15%. Some very weak and isolated storms have developed and continue near the border. Modeled soundings still lack CAPE and shear values representative of a conducive environment and the SPC has responded by pulling the marginal risk out of the CWA. That said, even without severe weather non-severe storms and showers are forecast near the Oklahoma border with ensembles at around a 40-50% chance. Outside of localized areas, places that see rain could expect amounts at around 0.1-0.2"; however, the vast majority of the area will not receive and accumulations. Showers are forecast to continue developing into Saturday morning with any remaining showered forecast to taper off by around noon. Afterwards, Saturday will be a quiet day with highs in the 70s.

The next few days will warm significant as drier air returns to the area. Highs will be in the 80s, with Monday's highs even breaching the 90 degree mark (30-50% chances via ensembles). This dry pattern will be short-lived with ensembles showing another upper-level trough developing and sweeping down towards the forecast area by the middle of the week.

Highs Wednesday through the rest of the week will continue to be warm with highs in the 80s only with a wetter pattern. Every day Wednesday-Saturday with varying 30-60% chances from long ranged ensembles. The specific coverage and intensity still holds a lot of uncertainty as the overall system has not been properly resolved yet. The same ensembles keep accumulations quite low below 0.25" with averages closer to 0.05-0.1". As per usual, some areas will receive more rain than other and many other areas will receive nothing. An early look at convective parameters are that these storms will tend to be non-severe, although with this much uncertainty and this far out details can change significantly. Outside of benign showers/storms this forecast period, no active weather or headlines are expected. No extreme temperatures, no dry relative humidities (<20%), and no very strong winds are forecast.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1148 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. With high pressure overhead, light and variable winds will start the period with winds ending out of the southeast at 5-10 KTs. In the first few hours, weak thunderstorms are forecast around LBL. How much storm coverage is present around LBL has some uncertainty, but it is not expected to lower flight conditions.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.