textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Two rounds of steady rainfall expected over the next 24 hours which will result in rainfall totals across southwest ranging from 0.20 to 0.75 inches.

- Areas of fog developing after midnight. Visibilities along and east of highway 283 may be reduced to one mile or less at times early Saturday morning.

- Strong winds and low humidity early next week will result in high fire danger early next week. Near critical to critical fire weather conditions possible on Tuesday.

- Strong winds possible on Tuesday. There is a 35-60% chance that wind gusts in excess of 45 mph will be possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1138 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

The upper ridge earlier this morning was moving east across the central United States as an upper level trough that was located over California on Thursday moved to western Utah. This upper trough extended from western Utah into southern California. Also earlier today, east of the Rockies, a 850 mb low was developing over the Texas Panhandle. East of this developing low, some 925-850 mb moisture transport is present across southwest Kansas, but the flow this morning is more southwesterly than advertised yesterday. As a result, the moisture return that will be occurring later today and early tonight ahead of the 850 mb low may end up being focused a little more southeast of the Barber County area than previous anticipated. As a result of this, rainfall totals from this upcoming event tonight across south central Kansas may not be as high as previously thought. However, there is still a chance for a few isolated areas of heavier rainfall to be possible after sunset if we are able to get a few isolated thunderstorms to develop. The Storm Prediction Center currently has a marginal risk for severe storms for Barber County given this potential. The main hazard, should a few stronger storms develop, will be very isolated hail up to quarter size (5% chance) and locally heavy rainfall.

This rainfall early tonight, east of the developing 850mb low, will be the first of two opportunities for accumulating rain across southwest Kansas. Tonights rain is currently expected to spread north into south central and portions of southwest Kansas as warm air advection improves with the development of a low level jet after sunset. Precipitable water values, still forecast to be around 0.75 inches which would suggest a period of heavier rainfall will be possible given good forcing. Unfortunately, the short term models continue to favor keeping the better forcing south and east of the Barber County area in the axis where the better moisture and instability will be present. As a result...rainfall totals currently do not appear to be as high as previously thought yesterday east of highway 283. Given this, south central Kansas will still have the best chance (40-60%) for rainfall totals to exceed 1/2 inch tonight (between 6 PM tonight to 6 AM Saturday). Also across south central Kansas, there is a greater than 60% chance for rainfall totals ending at 6 AM Saturday to be more than 1/4 inch. For locations further west and north, there is a 50% chance or less for rainfall tonight to be greater than 1/4 inch along and west of a Meade to Dodge City to Larned line.

On Saturday, this first round of rain will move east into Central Kansas as the 850mb low moves across north central Oklahoma as the upper level trough exits the Rockies and moves out into the Plains. However, moisture and lift west/northwest of this 850mb low will improve early in the day across southwest Kansas as enhanced difluent flow aloft develops given the approaching upper level trough. This enhanced lift will provide southwest Kansas, especially across west central and north central Kansas, another opportunity to see a period of steady rainfall. As a result, the chance for an additional 1/4 inch of rainfall between 6 AM and 6 PM Saturday for locations west and north of Dodge City is 30-60%. For areas south and east of Dodge City, the chances lower to 35% or less.

The bottom line is, given these two opportunities for rainfall, the majority of southwest Kansas will likely see between 0.10 and 0.50 inches west and north of Dodge City, and between 0.25 and 0.75 inches east and south of Dodge City, with locally higher amounts possible should thunderstorms develop in the Medicine Lodge and Pratt areas early tonight. Lower confidence exists on rainfall amounts east of Dodge City given the uncertainty of how far north the widespread steady rainfall will spread and how long it will last overnight.

Along with this expected rainfall...fog is expected to develop overnight into Saturday morning as the steadier rain moves in after 3 AM. Ensemble guidance suggests a 60-70% chance of visibilities dropping below one mile, with a 30-50% chance of visibilities nearing one half mile at times. The highest risk for reduced visibility is along and east of a Liberal to Dodge City to Hays line. Given the current probabilities, a Fog Advisory is not warranted at this time. However, travelers should be prepared for low visibilities early Saturday morning.

On Sunday night, the rain will taper off from west to east as the upper level trough exits western Kansas, and this wet weather will once again be replaced by very warm and dry conditions. These warm conditions will continue through early next week with high temperatures climbing into the 80s not out of the question by Tuesday given that the Extreme Forecast index across southwest Kansas is between 0.8 and 0.9 with a Shift of Tails greater than zero which suggests a high confidence forecast for a very unusual and potentially highly extreme event. The current forecast for highs on Tuesday has temperatures from the mid 70s to near 80 already and there is already a 40-70% chance that highs will be above 80 degrees.

Winds will also increase early next week due to a deepening surface trough over the lee of the Rockies as a significant upper trough approaches the Western United States, along with forecast 850mb ensemble winds of 35 to 40 knots east of the boundary which may end up being a little low given the upper jet that will be extending from the southwest United States into the Central Plains. These conditions easily suggest stronger winds than indicated by NBM guidance which already has a 35 to 60% chance for wind gusts to be greater than 45 mph west of Dodge City. This is something we will be monitoring closely because confidence, although still below 50%, is improving that a high wind event will be possible across southwest Kansas. Along with very strong winds...this underestimation in wind speeds also gives rise to the likelihood of a high fire risk across southwest Kansas.

Based on these two potentials next week...anyone with outdoor plans should stay up to date with the latest forecast and be prepared for very strong winds and high fire danger levels.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1138 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Clouds will thicken and lower after 00Z Saturday as moisture and lift increase across southwest Kansas overnight. As ceilings fall to between 1500 and 3500 ft AGL between 05Z and 09Z tonight, the chance for rain will increase. Ceilings will continue to lower overnight as rain becomes widespread across southwest Kansas, with ceilings below 500 ft AGL possible at all TAF sites after 10Z. Along with these low clouds, areas of fog will also be possible, with visibilities at or below 1 mile possible between 09Z and 15Z Saturday.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.