textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning until 9pm CDT this evening west of highway 83. - A Marginal risk for isolated severe thunderstorms west of highway 283 today. Main hazards will be isolated wind gusts up to 60 mph, cloud to ground lightning and very isolated hail.

- Critical Fire weather possible across portions of southwest Kansas on Thursday.

- A Marginal Risk for severe weather will be possible across south central Kansas (east of highway 281) late Thursday and early Thursday night. Main hazards will be large hail and strong gusty winds. - Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible late Saturday as a warm front lifts north out of Oklahoma and into southwest and south central Kansas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1144 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

A 500mb trough this morning was located over the Central Rockies with a surface trough of low pressure/developing dryline located across eastern Colorado near the Kansas border. Ahead of this surface trough/dryline, an overnight low level jet has been drawing moisture into southwest Kansas, resulting in areas of stratus and fog this morning as dewpoints climbed from the 40s yesterday into the 50s early this Wednesday morning.

The primary focus today is the eastward movement of the dryline. This will not only brings an increased fire weather risk but also may produce chance for an isolated late day thunderstorm or two. Models today indicate the dryline will reach extreme southwest Kansas after 1pm. As this dryline passes the humidity will drop to 15% or less, especially west of Hugoton to Ulysses line. Wind gusts exceeding 30 mph have a 50-70% chance of developing after 3 pm based on the latest ensembles. In addition to these low humidity and gust winds there will be a 10-20% chance for an isolated high based thunderstorm or two to develop along this dryline late day position. With limited moisture there will be little if any precipitation for any storm that may develop. As a result any cloud to ground lightning could cause isolated wildfires. Based on all this will continue the Red Flag Warning even if a few locations do not reach the minimum humidity values.

The isolated thunderstorm potential along the dryline this afternoon will not only create the potential for dry thunderstorms but it may also produce isolated wind gusts up to 60 mph and possibly even hail late day east of the dryline where a narrow corridor of +40 knots of 0-6km shear, CAPE values near 2000 j/kg, and downdraft CAPE of 1000-1500 j/kg will be present. Again this is all conditional on storms developing, which currently looks to be <20%.

The focus shifts late tonight into Thursday from the dryline to a cold front surging south across southwest Kansas. Models remain in good agreement with the dryline crossing south central Kansas early Thursday, but the cold front is now forecast to move more quickly across southwest Kansas as a negatively tilted upper level trough crosses the Northern Plains. This faster solution may not only reduce the severe weather risk near Pratt and Medicine Lodge late Thursday, but it will impact fire weather due to uncertainty about afternoon winds north of the front. Currently, given late day humidity in the teens and a 60-80% chance of wind gusts over 25 mph after 2 pm (per REFS), a Red Flag Warning appears warranted across portions of southwest Kansas. Still working on the details as of noon but at this time it appears this red flag warning will be from Syracuse to just south of Dodge City and Greensburg.

As for the severe weather potential Thursday...there is still a marginal risk along and east of Highway 281, given the shear and instability present across portions of south central Kansas late Thursday as the cold front passes. However, once again, the chances for convection appear low ( less than 20%). If a few storms do develop early Thursday evening, the main hazards will be strong gusty winds and large hail.

Looking ahead to the weekend, it is still expected to be cooler (more seasonal) with increasing chances for precipitation. However, instead of just clouds and rain, there now appears to be an improving chance for convection early this weekend, with even the possibility of some thunderstorms becoming severe, especially across south central Kansas.

The cold front will briefly become stationary south of the Oklahoma border on Friday, then move back north as a warm front by early Saturday. This is due to an approaching upper level trough from the southwest which will be associated with the left exit region of a 250mb jet. Thunderstorm chances will be on the increase on Saturday as the warm front lifts north into southwest Kansas and both moisture and lift improves. The highest potential for thunderstorms on Saturday is currently anticipated Saturday night along and north of this warm front as a low level jet develops. This will improve shear along with mid level instability will be improving given some cooler aloft. SPC already has issued a 12-29% risk for severe weather east of Highway 283, with a greater than 30% chance for locations near Stafford, Pratt, and Medicine Lodge which at this time appears reasonable. The chance for thunderstorms will continue across portions of southwest Kansas until the upper level trough passes Sunday. The risk of severe weather will also end as this upper wave passes.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 523 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail in vicinity of all TAF sites through late evening. Prevailing low level stratus in central Kansas is forecast to edge back to the west overnight, bringing MVFR cigs to the vicinity of KHYS and possibly KDDC after 04-06Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are likely to persist elsewhere through the period. Gusty south winds are expected to gradually subside this evening while turning more southwesterly generally after 05-07Z as a lee side trough of low pressure near and along the Colorado line pushes eastward into extreme southwest Kansas. Northerly winds 10 to 20kt with gusts up to 25kt are forecast to develop toward daybreak Thursday as a cold front pushes through western Kansas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1144 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for extreme southwest Kansas this evening.

The dryline over extreme southeast Colorado is struggling to make much progress eastward into extreme southwest Kansas. It still appears that there is a 60% chance of this boundary entering western Grant and Stevens and southern Hamilton Counties by late day, so we will continue with the Red Flag Warning. In this area, we will also be monitoring the risk for an isolated thunderstorm or two late in the day along this dryline. These storms may produce little to no precipitation, so the cloud-to- ground lightning strikes will have the potential to cause isolated fires. These high-based storms may also produce gusty winds, which could cause rapid spread of any new or existing fire.

Critical Fire Risk Possible On Thursday. On Thursday a cold front will cross southwest Kansas during the day. As this boundary passes, westerly winds will shift to the north and become gusty at times. There is a 60% to 80% chance that wind speeds will be greater than 25 mph for portions of southwest Kansas, which is high enough for critical fire weather conditions to be possible given that humidity values across the area will be in the teens. As a result, I am leaning towards issuing a Red Flag Warning for portions of southwest Kansas where the higher chances for the gusty winds are expected.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for KSZ061-062-074-075-084-085. Red Flag Warning from noon CDT /11 AM MDT/ to 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ Thursday for KSZ061-074>076-084>089.