textproduct: Dodge City

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued warming trend through mid-week

- Another shot of cold air expected Friday and Saturday

- Chance of light snow Friday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 325 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

09z analysis depicts the forecast area is in between weather features with a trough axis across the Upper-Midwest and a ridge along the West Coast. The bulk of the coldest air associated with this trough swinging southeastward will remain well east of the area, thwarting the push of much colder air into the region as the attendant cold front undergoes frontolysis into this afternoon/evening. Because of this, expect high temperatures to largely be 35 degrees or greater across much of the CWA, with perhaps the exception across northeastern zones. Low temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday are still expected to be chilly, with temperatures 15 degrees or less. The big warm-up (comparative to recent temperatures) will come Wednesday afternoon as the aforementioned trough continues to move eastward, allowing a more westerly, downslope flow influence. 850 mb temperatures will climb +7-10C range during the afternoon, allowing surface temperatures to climb into the mid/upper 40s (eastern zones) to low/mid 50s (western zones).

After this brief warm up, another shot of colder air is expected Friday and Saturday. The next trough axis will be farther west and colder allowing for a cold front to pass well through the forecast area. LREF grand ensemble depict this cold front to move through Friday morning, aided by a near 1050 mb surface high entering the Upper-Midwest. As previous forecaster noted, NBM shows temperatures in the 20s, mainly for northeastern zones, but there is potential low 20s is even too warm. NBM probabilities of max temperatures less than 20F are 40-60%, notably up around Hays. Coldest air of the period will be Friday night into Saturday morning, with the current NBM forecast calling for single digit lows and negatives, along and east of Route 283. Probabilities of temperatures falling into the negatives are 30-50%, but suspect those chances to rise in subsequent updates. With these very cold temperatures, apparent temperatures look to potentially fall into the minus 10s, which would be just at or near Cold Weather criteria, so something to watch for in the coming days. This cold shot looks relatively short lives however, as temperatures quickly begin to rebound into the upcoming weekend.

Forecast across central and southwest Kansas will remain mostly dry through the forecast period, with the only appreciable POP chances Thursday and Friday. Friday will have the greatest chance of light snow 20-40%, favoring northern zones. With limited amount of moisture, it is anticipated any potential accumulation will be quite light. NBM probabilities of at least 0.1" is 40-70%, but 1" or greatest is maxed at only 30% chance at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 501 AM CST Tue Jan 27 2026

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the 12z TAF period with light variable winds and clear conditions.

DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.