textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front will bring a chance for light snow to the High Plains Tuesday evening.

- The cold front will also bring the potential for another period of high winds along the wind prone areas of I-80 Tuesday afternoon and evening.

- A widespread, locally damaging wind event is still on track for Thursday. Widespread gusts of 60 to 80 mph are possible, with potential for localized gusts up to 100 mph in the wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming.

- Very strong winds are expected to continue through at least Saturday ahead of the next chance for precipitation Saturday into Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 412 AM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

An active short term is expected with a cold front pushing through the area today, and the start of a prolonged high wind event to follow Wednesday evening. The zonal flow pattern that was in place will be eroded by a shallow trough dropping down from the north this afternoon. This trough will push a cold front across the area, bringing windy conditions as well as a chance for some light precipitation. Ahead of the cold front, a mild day is expected with high temperatures reaching the 50s and 60s for areas south of the North Platte River Valley. Areas north of this will likely be cooler with highs in the 40s as low stratus around the frontal boundary keeps conditions cool. As the front passes through, temperatures will quickly cool off this evening. With the frontal passage, brief high winds could be possible, especially in some of the southeast Wyoming wind prones. High Wind Watches are in place for Arlington and the South Laramie Range, however, did not have the confidence to upgrade at this time. The 00Z run of the GFS looks weaker than the 18Z run, with winds aloft only maxing out at about 50 kts. Subsidence also waffles back and forth between being weaker and stronger throughout the day, leading to lower confidence in high winds occurring. However, high winds could briefly be possible with the passage of the cold front as MSLP gradients steepen. Behind the front, some light precipitation could move into the area. Hi-Res guidance does show some precipitation moving into the CWA by mid-afternoon. Precipitation looks most likely in the high terrain as well as north of the North Platte River Valley. Some light snowfall accumulations could be possible Tuesday night in the high plains, but accumulations should generally remain below an inch.

Temperatures on Wednesday will be cooler behind the cold front with highs mainly in the 40s. 700 mb temperatures will be around -10C, leading to these near to slightly below average temperatures. Most of Wednesday will be relatively quiet with minimal chances of precipitation as the trough moves further east. Winds will begin to pick up late Wednesday afternoon as a 250 mb jet sits over the CWA. High winds will likely kick in overnight Wednesday as MSLP gradients and CAG to CPR height gradients rapidly steepen. As a result, winds aloft will also rapidly strengthen, with some of the strongest winds expected during the day Thursday.

High Wind Watches are already in place for most of southeast Wyoming on Thursday. As previously mentioned, the strongest winds are expected during the day Thursday. The GFS shows 700 mb winds maxing out at over 80 kts over the Laramie Range. Combined with widespread strong subsidence, extremely strong wind gusts will be possible, especially in the usual southeast Wyoming wind prones. Wind gusts exceeding 90 MPH will be possible around Bordeaux, Coleman, Arlington, and the South Laramie Range and foothills. Outside of these areas, wind gusts over 70 MPH will be possible. The biggest change with this forecast package was the addition of a few more zones to the current High Wind Watches. Watches will likely also need to be expanded into the Nebraska panhandle given the magnitude of this event. Thursday will only mark the start of this prolonged high wind event. High winds will likely continue across most of southeast Wyoming through Saturday night, however the strongest winds are still expected on Thursday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 400 PM MDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Friday starts a series of shifts in the upper level flow as we transition from Northwesterly flow from the trough that pushed through Thursday into a brief westerly flow. The high winds continue to remain as the 700mb speeds continue to be around 65 to 70 knots aiding in mountain wave continuation. Looking at a regional GFS cross section the question remains is how fast will the winds be at the surface. Those surface winds depends on if the mountain wave breaks and where does this breakage occur. The cross-section shows possible mountain wave breakage early Friday morning however the stability and parcel buoyancy looks to shift around mid-morning to favor the continuation of the wave without breaking. Even though daytime mixing will help bring those faster winds down to the surface as well, the strongest winds look to Friday morning when that Mountain wave breakage is likely to occur. These high winds look to continue into the weekend as well. Saturday night into early Sunday morning another trough impacts the Intermountain West. This trough will be responsible for switching our flow from the westerly flow back to a more Northerly flow. Cluster analysis shows the ensembles still show some uncertainty with how deep this trough will dig into our area. This is mainly due to the positioning of the highly amplified ridge that is progged to form off the West coast and shift eastward Friday through Sunday. A strong ridge that shifts more east during this time will prevent much of that Northerly transition and keep us dry as the trough remains shallow preventing the moisture from reaching us. However, if the ridge remains amplified over the West coast then the trough will be able to dig much further as the Intermountain West will be on the front side of that ridge transition to Northerly flow. The latter scenario will result in greater precipitation chances and the pull of colder air dropping in over the region for cooler temperatures on Sunday and possible snow chances. The positioning of this ridge will be the key factor in the continuation of high winds as well. This is mostly because if a strong ridge moves over the Intermountain west then it would push the jetstream more northward giving us a break but also making us drier as well. Keeping us in Northerly flow would keep the jetstream over us as it climbs over the ridge on the west coast and like a roller coaster accelerating on the downward side (front) but also allowing for more systems to graze the region and potentially increase our precipitation chances. Right now the global models are showing that ridge shifting eastward about Tuesday giving us a cooler Sunday and Monday with decreasing precipitation chances after Monday morning and potential continuation of high winds at the start of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 535 AM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Low stratus has made its way into the Nebraska panhandle early this morning. MVFR to IFR CIGs will persist through the morning hours, with low stratus likely raising during the afternoon. Cannot rule out areas of patchy fog reducing visibility during this time. Gusty winds are expected across southeast Wyoming terminals this afternoon, with gusts over 40 kts possible. A cold front will move across the area this afternoon, bringing scattered showers to most terminals.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...High Wind Watch from late Wednesday night through Saturday evening for WYZ101-104>107-109-113-115>118. High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for WYZ102-108-119. High Wind Watch from noon MDT today through late tonight for WYZ110-116. High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Saturday evening for WYZ110. NE...None.