textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- A widespread strong to locally damaging wind event remains on track for much of the area this evening through Friday.

- A strong cold front this evening will bring a brief window for locally intense snow showers and the potential for a flash freeze.

- High winds may continue through Sunday in the wind prone areas.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected daily through at least Saturday due to gusty winds, low humidity, and dry fuels.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 202 PM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

Its showtime, today marks the start of a multi-day strong wind event across the High Plains. First, lets look at the 500mb level and the main player, a strong shortwave pushing south into our CWA around midnight tonight. This feature will ride along the western flank of a robust upper level low and associated trough that dives south out of Canada and into the Great Lakes Region. As such, northwest to northerly flow will feed right into the CWA for the duration of the short term period. Then a 700mb jet max, northwest winds of 75 knots, will enter the picture around midnight tonight, with the focal point of maximum winds across southern portions of the Nebraska Panhandle. As more energy at 500mb rotates in on Friday, the 700mb jet will have another surge of stronger winds that will peak near 80 knots by 5pm Friday, with the core of max winds once again over the Nebraska Panhandle. The 700mb jet doesn't let up, with continued upper level support, winds will remain near 75 knots for the remainder of this forecast period. With ample subsidence, negative Omega (GFS), these stronger winds will mix down to the surface and ensembles are showing high probabilities of widespread gusts 60 to 75 mph over much of the High Plains this evening into Friday afternoon. I-80, west of I-25, will not be immune, some of the strong winds will impact the wind prones from Arlington to Cheyenne, as gusts here too could top out at 80 mph. With all this wind talk, we have a litany of High Wind Warnings out, varying start/end times and duration, for essentially all the forecast zones from I-25 and east, including those in the Nebraska Panhandle.

So, for the rest of today, what will we see? One thing I forgot to mention in the previous paragraph, the prevailing direction of winds for this event will be northwesterly. So, this afternoon a cold front will slide south across the region, this will bring the initial burst of winds, 25 to 40 mph gusting to 50 mph, and for a few hours change the wind direction to northerly. Also, this front will, as hi- res guidance depicts, increase chances of precipitation, primarily snow showers, starting sometime around 5pm this afternoon for our northern forecast zones, a bit later for our southern zones. One of the things of concern with this front is the possibility of snow squalls as parameters we look for are there. The threat begins in the Nebraska Panhandle first then finishing up near the Laramie Range this evening. Even though these bands may produce heavy snow, the duration and coverage isn't there, as such, we are only expecting a dusting to maybe an inch of snow for a few isolated places.

The other thing we are monitoring closely are the elevated fire weather concerns today and possibly critical tomorrow. Even though some of the parameters we look for are not there and even with temperatures near freezing, will be discussed in a bit, the strong winds and dry fuels will bring the risk of critical grassland fire danger, especially Friday afternoon. Now switching to temperatures, 700mb temps will tank through Friday, so enjoy the warmth of today as highs Friday will feel much different. So, highs today will top out in the 40s west of I-25 and 50s to the east. Then wintertime temperatures return with highs Friday struggling to reach 30F. Lows tonight, behind the cold front, will be the start of a few colder nights as lows plummet into the teens and single digits.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 202 PM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

The long term will start off cold and windy as a strong arctic trough circles the Great Lake Region on Saturday. The CWA will feel the effects of this cold airmass, with 700 mb temperatures as cold as -16C. This will lead to high temperatures likely colder than freezing for most of the forecast area. The 250 mb jet on the backside of the trough will also pass through the CWA, leading to continued windy conditions for areas east of the Laramie Range. 50 MPH wind gusts can be expected in these areas. These strong gusts will also lead to wind chills in the single digits to 20s throughout the day. Winds will ease during the evening hours on Saturday.

Temperatures will warm up briefly on Sunday as the arctic trough pushes further east out of the Great Lakes Region. High temperatures will be near-average for mid-January, though some breeziness will still lead to a chilly day. Temperatures will dip once again on Monday as a cold front moves across the region Sunday night. Cannot rule out some light snow showers with the frontal passage, however the origin of the airmass is rather dry, so accumulations would not be likely. High temperatures on Monday will be about 10 degrees cooler than Sunday, with highs dropping back down to slightly below average.

The next few days will feature a return to above average temperatures and drier conditions as a weak ridge returns to western CONUS. However, breezy to windy conditions can still be expected based on the location of the 250 mb jet.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1055 PM MST Thu Jan 15 2026

Strong cold front pushed through the area and south of all southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska terminals. Bands of light to moderate snow will mainly impact KLAR and KCYS early this morning. Otherwise, very windy for all terminals tonight with strong gusty winds (35 knot sustained/50 knot gusts) after 14z Friday.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: Bands of light to moderate snow and IFR conditions will continue until 08z for KLAR and KCYS. May even see VIS drop to 1/2 mile briefly before ending. Snow may sneak into KSNY, but it is currently pretty dry over the southern Nebraska Panhandle so kept VCSH for now. Other than that, VFR conditions are expected at all other terminals for the rest of tonight and through Friday. Very windy for the rest of tonight with wind gusts between 30 to 40 knots. Winds are forecast to increase between 11z and 15z, with gusts over 50 knots likely through Friday afternoon for most terminals. KRWL will be the only exception...but it will still be windy with gusts of 30 to 35 knots.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...High Wind Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM MST Friday for WYZ101-102-107-108. High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Friday for WYZ118-119. High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to noon MST Saturday for WYZ110-116-117. High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 5 AM MST Saturday for WYZ115. NE...High Wind Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM MST Friday for NEZ002-003-019>021-095-096. High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Friday for NEZ054-055.