textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon, with a return of drier and windier weather expected for Sunday, when Fire Weather concerns will increase.

- There will be a chance of afternoon and evening showers and a few thunderstorms Monday through Friday, with the best chances on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 232 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

A quick look at the big picture, at the start of the short term period we have a negatively tilted upper level trough to our west with a ridge sitting to our east. As we progress through the weekend, shortwave energy will push northeastward into and through our CWA by this afternoon/evening, and off to our northeast by Sunday. Speaking of Sunday, expect drier conditions in our region along with a deep trough pushing into the West Coast, which will be our next weather maker next week. So, for today, the biggest concern will be the threat of thunderstorms this afternoon, some of which could be severe. With aforementioned features, mid/upper-level flow will remain southwesterly today, this will bring in warmer temperatures and moist airmass into our CWA. This coupled with the shortwave aloft will be the catalyst for thunderstorm development this afternoon. The main threat with these thunderstorms will be winds and hail. So stay tuned to the forecast for future updates...

By Sunday, drier conditions return to eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Widespread west to southwest winds will pick back up into the 15 to 30 mph range, with stronger gusts. These winds will overspread receptive fuels and as minimum RH values dip to as low as 10 percent, elevated fire weather concerns will return. Therefore, a Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for most of our fire weather zones along I-25 and to the east and north, starting Sunday afternoon. This watch will be upgraded later today as we fine tune the forecast as newer data comes in.

Lets transition to temperatures and what can we expect over the weekend. With southwesterly flow firmly in place, 700mb temps will climb into the +4 to +6C range by this afternoon and more of the same for Sunday. So, what does this mean for our highs? Well, we can expect highs today, for many locations, hitting the 60s west of I-25 and 70s east of the corridor, with a few spots in the Nebraska Panhandle hitting 80 degrees F. Lows over the weekend will dip only into the upper 30s to low 40s across the CWA.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 212 PM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Monday starts an active weather pattern where the Intermountain West could see a meager tenth of an inch over the course of 5 days with some isolated areas getting a couple tenths. A weak shortwave will push through Monday ahead of the stronger low pressure system Tuesday into Wednesday. This weak shortwave may give some snow chances to the peaks of the mountains but lower than 9,000ft may see more of a chance for a cold rain. Outside the the Snowies and Sierra Madre range the chance for precip is practically none and present more fire weather concerns east of I-25. The progged westerly downsloping winds look to continue to dry out the area east of I-25 for another day of Fire weather. Stronger unsettled weather will return Tuesday into Wednesday as the broad trough over the West Coast progresses inland. While we should still see some rain and snow showers across the area, the LREF probabilities of greater than 0.10 inches doesn't climb past 20 percent for areas east of I-25 or greater than 30 percent between Laramie and Rawlins signaling another weak/ dry system for our region. Another, potentially stronger system looks to arrive Thursday into Friday. The current storm track depicted by the global models shows the system roughly transiting through the middle of Colorado which is a favorable location for us to receive some heavier rainfall from the wraparound region to the North of the system. Due to the cyclonic flow around the Low, this would put us in an easterly upslope pattern and better chances for rain to make it to the surface. Some cold air looks to follow the system dropping the weekly 60/70 degree temps to highs in the 30's and 40's for Friday and Saturday. So this system will be worth monitoring as we could have a wetter end to the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 525 AM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

VFR conditions should prevail across all terminals for the duration of this TAF period. There are two exceptions, KAIA and KSNY, low CIGs of less than 1.5K feet are plaguing these terminals and will continue to about 14Z when CIGs will lift and scatter thereafter. Winds will begin to ramp up this morning, where most sites will see gusts 20-35 knots as a system moves through. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible with this system as well, due to low confidence, maintaining VCSH in the TAFs. If a thunderstorm moves over a terminal, expect a decrease in VIS and CIGs while winds will become gusty and erratic.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for WYZ417>419-430>433. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for NEZ434>437.