textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- High Wind Watches have been upgraded to High Wind Warnings for southeast Wyoming. High Wind Watch has been issued for western Nebraska. - Critical to Extreme fire danger expected starting Tuesday morning and continuing through Tuesday evening. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for areas east of the Laramie Range.

- Moderate to heavy mountain snowfall is expected from Tuesday through Thursday this week, mainly above 8500 feet. A Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory are in effect.

- Snow squalls possible west of the Laramie Range Tuesday with the passage of a cold front. Snow squalls will again be possible for the same location Wednesday.

- Snowfall is possible over the Plains Wednesday night into Thursday, followed by temperatures falling below seasonal averages for the end of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 445 PM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

Active weather is expected through at least the end of the work week, with high winds, fire weather, and multiple rounds of snow possible. This short term discussion will focus primarily on the Monday night through Thursday timeframe, broken up by day and hazard type as the forecast is long, complex, and messy with many moving parts.

HIGH WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER - MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

Winds will begin to ramp up out west in Carbon County this evening as an upper-level shortwave begins to push into Wyoming. Southwest winds aloft will rapidly increase up to 55 kts this evening with good subsidence over places like Rawlins and Muddy Gap. Other areas of Carbon County like the Arlington area will see their winds increase late Monday night/early Tuesday morning. MSLP and CAG to CPR height gradients are rather slow to steepen, not increasing until during the day Tuesday. However, 55 to 60 kt winds aloft by early Tuesday morning with strong subsidence should be enough to get some of these stronger winds down to the surface. High winds shift further eastward into the Interstate 25 corridor and high plains of Wyoming Tuesday morning. During the morning hours, a strong MSLP gradient will finally develop over the Laramie Range as the upper-level shortwave moves into the CWA. This will increase winds aloft up to 70 kts over portions of southeast Wyoming. Extremely strong subsidence will also exist over the Laramie Range helping push these winds down to the surface. High Wind Warnings are in effect for southeast Wyoming (barring the mountain zones) as confidence is highest here. Between the strong frontal passage, good Hi-Res model agreement on 50+ kt surface gusts, and boundary layer mixing, 60 to 70 MPH winds are likely in the Warning areas. Winds will start to ease after sunset as the shortwave moves out of the CWA.

Strong winds are also likely in the Nebraska panhandle during the day Tuesday. Winds aloft will reach 50 to 60 kts over the Nebraska panhandle, however, subsidence remains a bit of a limiting factor. The 12Z GFS toned down the subsidence compared to previous runs, so confidence is a bit lacking at this time. As a result, issued a High Wind Watch for the entire panhandle. Hi-Res guidance seems to think most zones in the panhandle will see high-winds, but would like to see a few more model cycles from both Hi-Res guidance and the GFS. Regardless, it will still be a windy day with gusts over 50 MPH.

The strong downsloping winds and mild temperatures expected ahead of the cold front will lead to very dry conditions for areas east of the Laramie Range. Combined with the lack of precipitation lately and dry fuels, extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected. Any fires that do start could rapidly spread and get out of control due to the potential high winds.

MOUNTAIN SNOW AND SNOW SQUALLS - TUESDAY

The cold front associated with the shortwave will begin to move into Carbon County early Tuesday morning. Precipitation is expected with the front, with Hi-Res models like the HRRR showing more showery/convective precipitation outside of the high terrain out west. A quick look at model soundings does indicate a decent amount of instability present for February. Combined with the already strong background winds expected, snow squalls will be possible. Modeled snow squall parameters also support the notion that squalls will be possible. The main area of concern for snow squalls will be west of the Laramie Range. Snow squalls will be possible most of the day, starting before sunrise with the threat continuing after sunset. With strong downsloping winds present east of the Laramie Range, Hi-Res guidance shows most of the precipitation drying out before it even reaches the Interstate 25 corridor. Snow accumulations for the high valleys out west will likely be fairly minimal from squall/shower activity, however cannot rule out a quick inch from brief moderate to heavy snow.

Tuesday morning will mark the start of a prolonged period of mountain snow for the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges. Moist, southwest upslope flow will aid in steady snow throughout the day Tuesday. A Winter Storm Warning for the Sierra Madre Range and a Winter Weather Advisory for the Snowy Range start Tuesday morning and continue through early Thursday morning. These products encompass two storm systems, however snow will be fairly constant in the mountains during this time, hence the long duration headlines. The Sierra Madre Range is expected to pick up a few feet of snow from both events due to persistent orographic lift. The Snowy Range is expected to pick up less snow, hence the Advisory, as it is shadowed by the Sierra Madre Range.

Decided to also include the Arlington/Elk Mountain zone in a Winter Weather Advisory Tuesday. Being close to the Snowy Range, this zone could see 2 to 4 inches of accumulation. Combined with the high winds, blowing snow will be possible which could reduce visibility below one mile at times, resulting in hazardous travel. The threat of snow/snow squalls will diminish during the evening hours, leading to calmer conditions overnight.

SNOW SQUALLS - WEDNESDAY

While mountain snow will persist through the day Wednesday, another round of snow squalls will be possible again for areas west of the Laramie Range. Model soundings continue to show impressive CAPE values for both Rawlins and Laramie, indicative of more convective like snow showers. Breezy conditions are also expected out west on Wednesday, once again leading to the potential for snow squalls. Hi- Res guidance like the HRRR is already hinting at squall like snow showers developing out west Wednesday morning and continuing through the day. Cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder either, given the CAPE values!

SECONDARY WINTER SYSTEM WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW - WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A secondary trough will begin to swing into the CWA Wednesday evening. As a result, leeside cyclogenesis will occur somewhere in north-central Colorado per both the GFS and ECMWF deterministic and ensemble guidance. This low will eject eastward toward the Colorado/Kansas/Nebraska triple point Wednesday night, dragging with it a cold front, as well as some decent upslope/wrap around moisture for portions of the CWA. This cold front will be colder than the previous cold front on Tuesday, therefore snow is expected for most if not the entire duration of this system. Most models show the bulk of precipitation falling Wednesday night with snow accumulations likely for a good portion of the forecast area. Current guidance suggests the best moisture and upslope will be in the northern portions of the CWA. Highest totals will likely be along the Pine Ridge and Pine Ridge adjacent cities, but areas as far south as Wheatland, Alliance, and Scottsbluff could also see some decent snow accumulations. Unfortunately, the progressive nature of this system does not exactly lend itself to Winter Storm Warning criteria totals, but in this dry winter, any accumulation is good accumulation. By Thursday morning, most of the snow will be out of Wyoming, but snow could linger into the afternoon hours in the Nebraska panhandle. Will continue to monitor this system and iron out snow totals as the system draws nearer.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 445 PM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

The active pattern continues into the long term, including more chances of precipitation followed by a slight warming trend and quick dryout over the weekend. Thursday night through Saturday morning, a passing Pacific Trough continues our chances of precipitation, including another shot at widespread light snow beyond the high terrain for our eastern zones Friday afternoon. That being said, accumulations are unsurprisingly coming in on the low side, with probabilities for greater than a a half an inch 20% or less outside of the high terrain of our western zones. But this system is bringing colder temperatures, and will actually drop us to highs that are below average for a change, with temperatures in the 30's to 40's on Friday and Saturday before returning to near normal on Sunday in the widespread 40's. Saturday and Sunday will see most of the region clear under ridging that will be taking back over, but look for some upslope flow to continue to promote isolated and light snow showers for the mountains during this timeframe. Finally our usual windiness can be expected as these systems pass across the region, but guidance isn't quite as excited for high winds as compared to the short term forecast period, with in house guidance only maxing at around 30% probability for high winds at Arlington Friday night into Saturday morning, with minimal probabilities elsewhere. Overall expect at least another shot at wintry precipitation for our area, but lessening impacts outside of cooler temperatures before warming returns as we move into next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 445 PM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

A powerful storm system will move through the area over the next 24 hours, presenting multiple aviation hazards for the area. While wind gusts will ease for most terminals after sunset shortly, LLWS is expected to develop this evening and overnight at most terminals as winds aloft increase. Surface wind gusts will return to RWL and LAR before sunrise (initially SSW) along with a chance for snow showers. This activity will have the potential to be locally intense, and could briefly drop VIS into the LIFR category at RWL and LAR between about 2AM and 9AM. Multiple rounds will be possible through the morning hours, followed by a late morning lull, and then additional activity in the afternoon. There is lower confidence in impacts from the afternoon round.

Strong winds will spread eastward Tuesday morning and turn more westerly as the day progresses. All terminals will have the potential to see consistent gusts of 40 to 50 knots and possibly a brief gust to 60 knots. The strongest gusts will be late morning through mid afternoon, after which time we should see winds gradually start to ease. While this was not mentioned in the TAF yet, there is also the possibility for visibility reductions due to blowing dust Tuesday, mainly in the Nebraska panhandle.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Red Flag Warning from 5 AM to 6 PM MST Tuesday for WYZ417-418- 430>433. High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 11 PM MST Tuesday for WYZ101- 106-107-115>118. High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday for WYZ102-108- 119. High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST Tuesday for WYZ104-109. High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 8 PM MST Tuesday for WYZ105-110- 111-113. Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 11 PM MST Tuesday for WYZ110. Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Tuesday to 5 AM MST Thursday for WYZ112. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Tuesday to 5 AM MST Thursday for WYZ114. NE...Red Flag Warning from 5 AM to 6 PM MST Tuesday for NEZ434>437. High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096.