textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- High Wind Warning for southeast Wyoming and all of western Nebraska today for gusts up to 70 MPH.

- Moderate to heavy mountain snowfall expected from Tuesday through Thursday this week, mainly above 8500 feet. A Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory are in effect.

- Snow squalls possible west of the Laramie Range Tuesday with the passage of a cold front. Snow squalls will again be possible for the same location Wednesday.

- Snowfall is possible over the Plains Wednesday night into Thursday, followed by temperatures falling below seasonal averages for the end of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 130 PM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

High winds continue across much of southeast Wyoming early this afternoon, with most zones already verifying. Peak gusts have maxed out at over 80 MPH, with frequent gusts over 70 MPH as well! High winds are just beginning to spill over into the Nebraska panhandle as winds aloft creep up to 60 kts as MSLP gradients across the area steepen. High winds in both southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska are expected to continue through the afternoon hours, with winds weakening after sunset as the shortwave responsible for the winds moves east of the area. High Wind Warnings should be allowed to expire on time, if not cancelled a bit earlier. Besides the wind, observations and webcams further west show scattered snow showers. Model soundings show a few hundred joules of CAPE lingering through the evening west of the Laramie Range. This will be enough to trigger snow showers and perhaps snow squalls. Instability will decrease after sunset, which lines up well with Hi-Res guidance ending showers during the evening. Mountain snow for the Sierra Madre and Snowy Ranges will continue through Thursday.

Instability returns to Carbon and Albany Counties Wednesday morning. This will lead to yet another round of snow showers and potential snow squalls. Hi-Res guidance shows showers/squalls developing during the afternoon hours with mountain snow continuing through the day. Snow showers will push eastward into the high plains by the evening hours as the next trough moves into the CWA. As the trough swings through, leeside cyclogenesis will take place Wednesday afternoon, with good ensemble cluster agreement of the surface low forming in northeast Colorado. This low will eject eastward into Kansas Wednesday night, advecting solid mid-level moisture into the northern and eastern portions of the CWA. Persistent upslope flow in these areas could lead to decent snowfall accumulations. However, due to the progressive nature of this system, the window for accumulation will be rather small, lasting Wednesday night into part of the day Thursday. The GFS and ECMWF ensemble members are in rather good agreement with snowfall totals. Both have the highest totals in the northern portion of the CWA along the Pine Ridge. Upslope flow could lead to Advisory level snowfall amounts from Douglas to Chadron. Models like the HRRR and GFS also show good QPF in the Nebraska panhandle, so areas from roughly Torrington to Alliance could also pick up a few inches of snow from this next system. The lowest snowfall totals will be along the Interstate 80 corridor in both southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle. The current track of the low has more dry air and less moisture in these areas, leading to potentially an inch of accumulation. Although Winter Weather Advisories may be needed for some northern zones, decided to hold off on issuing anything at this time due to High Wind Warnings and Red Flag Warnings already being in place this afternoon.

Snow will wind down by Thursday afternoon, including the long duration snow event for the mountains. Behind this system, much colder air will remain. Temperatures on Thursday will be well below average, with highs struggling to break 30 degrees in northerly winds. Cold temperatures will continue into Thursday night with some locations dropping below zero.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 424 PM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

Long term begins active as we see multiple systems passing across the region, bringing some more chances of fairly widespread precipitation alongside breezy but not quite high winds, with ridging then returning and bringing what else - above normal temperatures and dry conditions to end the weekend start next week. Thursday evening begins on the backside of a quick moving shortwave, with transient ridging briefly taking over early Friday, but by Friday evening another shortwave from a deeper low in Canada will swing across the region. This will be followed by stronger high pressure starting to overtake the area, but a third shortwave from the aforementioned Canadian low will ride the periphery of this ridge and just graze our area Saturday afternoon before ridging then becomes the dominant feature into early next week, with perhaps one more shortwave riding this feature on Sunday but weaker than the previous ones.

Based on this pattern, the primary sensible weather concerns will involve precipitation chances, temperatures, and winds. For precipitation - while not a guaranteed chance across our area, probabilities continue to rise for light snow overspreading even into the Nebraska Panhandle by Friday evening. Outside of our western high terrain zones, the NBM now paints a 20-40% probability of 0.5 inch or more of snowfall from Cheyenne to Sidney and as far north as Wheatland and Scottsbluff. Temperatures meanwhile should be cold for once this winter, with highs on Friday widespread at or below freezing (hard to believe, right?). Highs remain in the 30's to low 40's through the weekend, putting us below to near normal through Sunday. This also will promote very chilly overnight lows, including Thursday night into Friday lows in the single digits to negatives, with apparent temperatures widespread in the negatives. Single digits to teens can then be expected into early next week. To start next week however, we'll be back up well above average as the ridging and warmth finally catch back up, with 50's back in the forecast for locations around and east of I-25, and long range models just beyond the long term indicating 60's by Tuesday. Finally, the passing trough on Saturday will bring a chance at some enhanced winds, but probabilities remain too low to consider high wind events currently. In house guidance only peaks at a 40% probability of high winds at that time, and both 700mb winds and pressure gradients aren't quite what we'd like to see to promote a stronger wind event.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 445 PM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

For the Southeast Wyoming Terminals conditions are expected to increase during the night as the winds start to die down shortly after sunset. Ceilings are expected to slowly clear according to the models but not quite sure looking at Satellite. Tomorrow winds are expected to be light in the Panhandle with clouds increasing in the afternoon as precipitation chances spread east. After 12z the Wyoming terminals may start another round of snow showers and after 18z KBFF may get -RASN with rain chances increasing for the rest of the Nebraska sites.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for WYZ417-418- 430>433. High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for WYZ102-104- 105-108>111-113-119. High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for WYZ101-106- 107-115>118. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for WYZ110. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Thursday for WYZ112. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Thursday for WYZ114. NE...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for NEZ434>437. High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for NEZ002-003- 019>021-054-055-095-096.