textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of strong gusty winds will continue through late Wednesday evening, with periods of very windy conditions continuing through Friday. High Wind Watches and Warnings are currently in effect for most of southeast Wyoming and portions of the southern Nebraska Panhandle.

- Elevated fire weather concerns late this morning into early this afternoon for far southeast Wyoming and the southern Nebraska Panhandle.

- Mountain snowfall, with some rain/snow mix across the lower elevations, expected late Tuesday and into Wednesday. 8 to 16 inches of snow possible across the mountains. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for the higher mountains through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 225 AM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

A few notable changes to the previous forecast made early this morning with High Wind Headlines and Winter Weather Advisories in generally good shape. Upgraded the High Wind Watch over eastern Laramie County, Banner county, and Kimball county to a Warning, mainly for Wednesday, with models in good agreement and guidance showing a high potential for 58+ MPH gusts and/or sustained winds of 40+ for an hour. Also, added the Saratoga area/Upper North Platte River Valley zone to the warning with high res guidance continuing to show some mountain wave activity becoming an issue with decent lee-side subsidence to the east of the Sierra Madre Range. Another good chance to hit criteria is when the front goes through the region on Wednesday. Although eastern Laramie County starts this afternoon, believe there is enough of a chance to hit high wind criteria both days to justify the two day Warning, even though Wednesday should be the main event.

So far this morning, Arlington/Elk Mountain and Bordeaux have hit criteria with gusts up to 62 MPH and a gust of 59 MPH respectively. Surprised there isn't higher gusts, or the gusts aren't more widespread since models are showing 60 knots at 700mb and a pretty strong surface pressure gradient. A quick glance at the model soundings show the lack of a pronounced temperature inversion near mountain-top, which may be limiting the wind gusts to some degree. Expect this to change through the day and into tonight as all model soundings show the near-700mb inversion strengthening over southeast Wyoming by this afternoon as the strong Pacific jet max translates into Wyoming. Kept everything else as is for Tuesday, although models have backed off on the 700mb flow a bit. GFS and NAM Omega and 1000-500mb thickness continue to show the classic mountain wave signature setting up this afternoon through tonight. This is when some of the strongest winds may be observed with gusts up to 80 MPH possible in the wind prone areas and also the lee-side of the higher mountain ranges, possibly including the northern Laramie Range.

Wednesday will be similar with a more widespread high wind event likely as a stationary front slides southward across the region. The front will result in better mixing with higher lapse rates near the frontal boundary, with portions of the western Nebraska panhandle seeing gusts around 60 MPH for a few hours. Kept the High Wind Watch going for Goshen, Scotts Bluff County, and Cheyenne County mainly because of limited confidence in the position of the front. If the front is already south and/or west of these zones, winds may be much weaker during the afternoon. We still have some time left before Wednesday afternoon, so kept the Watch as is. Expect some of the higher gusts of this event to occur on Wednesday, especially for the towns and cities along I-80. Can't rule out some gusts over 70 MPH.

The same system and strong upper jet will also be responsible for some low elevation rain/snow and mountain snowfall starting mainly Tuesday afternoon and continuing into Wednesday (along the front). A few models have gone very aggressive with mountain snowfall during this run, showing near 3 feet of snow for the Snowy Range. High res guidance and the NAM are much more consistent with only a slight increase in QPF compared to 24 hours ago. Increased snow accumulations between 8 to 16 inches with some of the higher peaks closer to 20 inches. Keep in mind, this is nearly a 32 to 36 hour total and will not fall all at once. Will keep the Winter Weather Advisory going, but will closely monitor snowfall rates in case we need to upgrade later on Tuesday. The last few runs of the HRRR increase the confidence for the Winter Weather Advisory though with periods of moderate snow and some lulls in the steady snowfall early tonight and then again early Wednesday morning. Little to no snow is expected to accumulate below 7000 feet due to the relatively warmish airmass. Will need to keep an eye on Arlington/Elk Mountain area for accumulating snowfall, but the relatively mild temperatures may keep the pavement warm enough to limit overall travel hazards.

By Wednesday night, starting to doubt there will be much of a break in the high winds across the wind prone areas (and maybe wind prone adjacent zones as well). Models show the surface front not pushing far enough south and west to end the high wind threat, especially west of I-25. Models and in-house wind guidance still shows a notable decrease in winds and pressure gradients along the I-25, at least until later in the week. Nudged winds up a little more Wednesday night and we may need to extend portions of the High Wind Warning through the end of the week, especially for Arlington/Elk Mountain and possibly the I-80 Summit.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 318 PM MST Mon Feb 23 2026

The CWA will remain in a NW flow pattern on the eastern periphery of a ridge this weekend, resulting in above-average temperatures (shocker!) and dry conditions. Thursday and Friday will continue to be windy in the presence of a 50-60 knot 700 mb jet, which will induce a classic mountain wave pattern across the Snowy and Laramie ranges. Model cross-sections indicate closely-packed isentropes at mountain-top, indicating a stable layer which is favorable for strong downsloping winds. However winds aren't entirely perpendicular to the ranges and there is no mean-state critical level (reversal in the wind direction with height), so while it will be windy, winds likely won't be as impressive as Tuesday and Wednesday. Omega fields also show this mountain wave pattern, with strong subsidence leeside of the Laramie Range. As it stands, in-house guidance has the highest probabilities of winds greater than 60 mph overnight Thursday into Friday, with chances diminishing later Friday and into the weekend. With gusty winds, lack of moisture/dry soils given our drought conditions, and relative humidity values less than 20%, fire hazards will need to be monitored at this time particularly in our Nebraska counties.

Flow will become more zonal on Saturday resulting in warm and dry conditions ahead of a shortwave trough that will bring small chances of precipitation to our CWA on Sunday. The forcing for ascent looks to be relatively weak, but PWAT anomalies are progged to be 2-3 standard deviations above climatology, so any help from the shortwave trough or the terrain will result in a few rain and/or snow showers. We remain anomalously warm into early next week as 500 mb heights rise and flow remains out of the WNW. While we might get some meager help regarding moisture on Sunday (here is to hoping), we will remain relatively dry with no significant chances for widespread precipitation in the forecast.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1037 AM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: Very windy after 15z for all terminals with gusts likely between 35 to 50 knots. KCDR and KAIA will have slightly weaker winds, but still gusting to 35 knots. Winds will slowly diminish after sunset with LLWS likely for the southeast Wyoming terminals after 03z Wednesday.

Light rain is possible for KRWL, KLAR, and KCYS with some light snow mixing in tonight at KLAR. Do not expect VIS below 3 miles, but CIGS under 3000 feet are possible, especially around KLAR and KRWL.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ104-105-107- 109-110-115-118. High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ106-116-117. High Wind Watch through Wednesday afternoon for WYZ108. Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ112-114. High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 8 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ113. High Wind Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ119. NE...High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for NEZ019-055. High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 5 PM MST Wednesday for NEZ020- 054.