textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of accumulating snow is expected Thursday evening into Friday night. Uncertainty remains regarding forecast snow totals.

- Gusty winds are expected Friday in the wake of a cold front. This will lead to blowing snow concerns in areas receiving snow Thursday night and Friday.

- The pattern will shift to mostly dry and above normal temperatures after Saturday and persist through the start of next week with high winds possible during this time as well.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 256 AM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

One more mild day expected across most of the CWA today before the next storm system arrives to cool down temperatures for the remainder of the week. South to southwest flow ahead of the incoming trough will keep 700 mb temperatures east of the Laramie Range around 0C. As a result, high temperatures will climb into the 60s with a few locations in the Nebraska panhandle potentially reaching the low 70s! Temperatures west of the Laramie Range will be a bit cooler as the cold front associated with next storm system begins to push into the western part of the CWA during the morning hours. High temperatures here will primarily be in the 40s with perhaps areas of the Laramie Valley reaching the low 50s. During the afternoon hours lee cyclogenesis will take place in east-central Colorado as the trough swings into the Rockies. As a result, some showers will likely develop later in the afternoon. Showers on the east side of the Laramie Range will initially be rain, while snow is more likely out west.

Precipitation will become more widespread Thursday night. Although the cold front will likely be through the CWA by Thursday evening, temperatures will be slow to cool off, meaning the transition from rain to snow will likely be gradual. The Interstate 25 corridor will likely transition over to snow by midnight, while the Nebraska panhandle will transition by sunrise on Friday. Surface low track based on cluster analysis of the GFS and ECMWF show good agreement through Thursday night, but more uncertainty is possible during the day Friday as ensemble members are split between a more easterly track vs. southeast track.

Based on previous model runs, precipitation amounts have definitely trended downward. The eastward/southeastward track of the low moves the bulk of precipitation further south into Colorado. Regardless, this storm still looks like it will bring widespread accumulating snowfall to the CWA. Winter Weather Advisories are still valid as Advisory level snowfall amounts are still forecast across much of southeast Wyoming. Decided to not make any changes to the current Winter Storm Watches as Hi-Res guidance is much different from global models in this area. While ensembles are pretty consistent with generally 2 to 4 inches across much of southeast Wyoming, Hi- Res guidance like the HRRR, does potentially show low-end Winter Storm Warning amounts between Laramie and Cheyenne, including both cities. Good northerly upslope flow on the backside of the surface low could support roughly 6 inches of snow in these areas. Given the uncertainty and only recent uptick in snowfall amounts from Hi-Res guidance decided to leave the Winter Storm Watches as is to allow for at least another few model cycles. Outside of these areas, winter headlines may also need to be considered for central Laramie County. Totals in the Nebraska panhandle will be highest in the Pine Ridge area due to the upslope flow. Areas outside of this can generally expect a half to 2 inches of accumulation. Most accumulation in the CWA will happen late Thursday night through Friday morning. Snow will taper off Friday afternoon with lingering snow showers possible through the evening hours. Cannot rule out areas of blowing and drifting snow during the day Friday as 30 to 40 MPH wind gusts are expected behind the surface low.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 400 PM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

At the start of the long term, a benign weather pattern will settle in across the region as a system that impacted our CWA the day prior exits off to the east. As we progress through Monday, we dry out and remain dry as precipitation chances are minimal with the upper-level pattern becoming zonal. Then, a pattern change is possible Tuesday as a shortwave drops south, increasing precipitation chances and leading to cooler temperatures, more on that later. As of now, most of the precipitation associated with this system should remain all rain at lower elevations and snow in the higher terrain. There maybe a short window of the rain transitioning to snow Tuesday night, but at this time there should be minimal to no snow accumulations at the lower elevations. Now, lets take a look at temperatures, with a fresh blanket of snow across the CWA, expect slightly cooler temperatures to continue into Saturday. Thereafter, a warming trend will ensue Sunday as 700mb temps increase into the 2 to 4 degree C range. These temperatures will remain in place through Monday, then with a front diving south Tuesday, cooler temperatures will once again make a return. So, we don't live at 700mb, what does this all mean at the surface? Well, expect highs to climb into the mid 30s west of I-25 and 40s to low 50s east of the corridor on Saturday. Temperatures will warm Sunday into Monday as highs soar into the upper 40s to low 50s west of I-25 and low to upper 60s to the east, warmest across the Nebraska Panhandle. By Tuesday, a cooling trend will round out the long term period.

Switching to winds, expect windier conditions to make a return to our wind prones across southeast Wyoming Sunday through Wednesday. A 700mb jet will dive south, increasing mid-level winds to near 65 knots Sunday afternoon/evening. These winds will mix down to the surface as sinking air aloft sets up, negative Omega (GFS). There will be some variance in strength through Wednesday, but expect the windy conditions to continue from Sunday. All this coupled with our in-house guidance, there is a 80% chance of high winds along I-80 near Arlington late Saturday though Sunday night and along I-25 at Bordeaux. High wind probabilities decrease through the remainder of the forecast period. As of now, in-house guidance has probabilities of high winds in Cheyenne generally less than 20% for the aforementioned duration.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1041 AM MST Thu Mar 5 2026

Ceilings are going to have a steep gradient between SKC, BKn070, and then bkn025/030. There will be some holes in the sky that I tried to time out for the Southeast Wyoming terminals in the first 6 hours but according to observations and satellite clouds look to be between 3,000 and 5,000ft. For the Wyoming terminals rain looks to start between 22z and 0z and after 02z for the Nebraska terminals mainly KBFF and KCDR. These shower will be intermittent at times in the beginning. Low MVFR to IFR can be expected by 15z tomorrow as the precipitation should be snow for all terminals by that time. Winds will shift to the north behind the front and i expect to be variable right before it. With the cold airmass dropping down on us tonight the freezing level is roughly going to be at or near the surface for the Wyoming sites and maybe a little higher for our Nebraska terminals. Snow accumulations could be a couple inches depending on when the rain turns into snow later tonight after 06z.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight MST Friday night for WYZ103-106-110-112-114-115. Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 6 PM MST Friday for WYZ104-109. Winter Storm Watch from 8 PM MST this evening through Friday evening for WYZ116-117. NE...None.