textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Record heat this afternoon, followed by temperatures cooling as a front moves into the region through Tuesday.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will continue through Monday.

- Warming resumes on Wednesday as the ridge builds back in, with similar temperatures next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 205 PM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Forecast is largely on track this afternoon as temperatures continue to soar and red flag conditions are noted for our western and eastern zones. Had to expand the Red Flag Warning across Carbon County and into Albany County as winds have been overspreading into these areas and creating a critical environment. Meanwhile, with some daily record highs already broken and some on track to tie or break, it will be a notable day of warmth no matter what. Moving into this evening, we should see temperatures decline and Red Flag conditions subside for our eastern zones, but with poor overnight recoveries expected for our western zones, the Red Flag Warning will be allowed to continue during the nighttime hours into tomorrow.

Red Flag conditions for tomorrow are a bit more tricky than today. Areas along and east of I-25 are expected to see minimum RH values down into the teens, but a surge of moisture/cold front from the incoming trough will cause our humidity values to rise quickly during the later afternoon and into the evening. If our winds can pick up early enough, we'll easily see a critical environment for several hours before RH values rise. Knowing how our winds like to over perform coupled with the expectation that at least a couple of hours of critical conditons are likely, decided to err on the safe side and issued a Red Flag Warning for the aforementioned region. Meanwhile the critical environment for our western zones remains much more likely, with that warning continuing through tomorrow evening as well. With the expected surge of moisture and incoming front, a few showers and thunderstorms across the southern Laramie Range may be possible during the afternoon. Soundings around the area and into the lower terrain show an inverted V setup, unsurprising since our surface will be fairly dry. Therefore it's possible this activity could be virga in nature and only produce some locally gusty winds depending on how much surface moisture we can get across the area with storm development. But low moisture would only enhance the critical fire weather environment, including both the gusty winds and dry lightning. Thankfully we'll get a reprieve into the long term, but this will be a momentary lapse at best.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 205 PM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Tuesday will be the coolest day of the week as we remain in a much more comfortable post-frontal air mass and under the influence of a 1020 mb surface high to our north. While the bulk of the forcing for ascent will remain well to our northeast over Manitoba and Ontario, decreasing 500 mb heights that actually fall below the median value relative to climatology will bring us some much-desired and seasonably cool conditions across SE Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Strengthening ESE gradient flow will be in place thanks to an inverted ridge being banking up against the higher terrain will also bring us some breezy conditions. Despite it being another dry day, we can expect much more comfortable temperatures with highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s east of a Laramie to Douglas line, with low 80s expected further west where fewer clouds are expected. Long-range ensemble guidance is suggesting wind gusts ranging from 25-30 mph mainly east of the Laramie Range, however 25th percentile RH values are around 25-35%, so Red Flag conditions are unlikely at this time, but will need to be monitored depending on if the magnitude of low-level upslope flow decreases. Enjoy the cooler weather while it lasts...

The warm up begins on Wednesday as a mid-level ridge builds over the Desert Southwest, placing us in a northwesterly flow regime, which is not exactly ideal in terms of monsoonal moisture transport from the southwest. Highs on Wednesday will generally be in the upper 70s to low 80s with calmer winds compared to the previous day. The trend continues into Thursday as the ridge axis shifts north and east closer to the Rocky Mountain West, resulting in high temperatures approaching 90 degrees. Ending the work week and heading into the weekend, ensemble guidance has the ridge continuing to strengthen and shift east over the Great Basin, returning the possibility of seeing near record-high temperatures in the mid 90s to near 100 east of the I-25 corridor, and upper 80s to low 90s to the west. Dry conditions remain in place underneath the ridge until at least the weekend with no meaningful precipitation chances as PWAT remains between the 10th to 20th percentiles.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 534 PM MDT Sun Aug 2 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period. A low level jet is setting up over the Nebraska Panhandle and portions of eastern Wyoming. Gusts out of the south or southeast up to 45 knots. This same LLJ will impart LLWS at KBFF, KCDR, and KAIA through the morning hours as the planetary boundary layer lifts. A thick area of high altitude smoke is moving in from the west over KRWL and KLAR. Visibility concerns seem minimal currently, however there could be some subtle reduction near sunset and sunrise. Tomorrow a cold front shifts winds out of the north or northwest between 20 and 35 knots. A few showers and storms could develop near KLAR and KCYS before sunset and generate gusty variable winds. Probabilities are too low to introduce into the TAFs at these terminals.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ101-102-104- 107>109-111-118-119. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for WYZ417-418- 430>433. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT Monday for WYZ420>423-425-427. NE...Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT this evening for NEZ002-003- 019>021-054-055-095-096. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NEZ434>437. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Monday for NEZ434>437.