textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of gusty winds possible Tuesday morning, with a High Wind Watch for the Arlington area.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are expected through the week, with a brief respite on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 333 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

Quiet conditions ongoing this afternoon with seasonably warm temperatures accompanying. Overnight into tomorrow, a shortwave and cold front sweep across and will briefly bring more active weather to region, but only temporarily. A quick hit from the 700mb jet between 06-18Z coupled with some favorable downward omega values around Arlington could be enough to promote some stronger wind gusts, possibly near High Wind Warning level criteria (58+), but confidence remains low to moderate at this time. In house guidance only maxes the probabilities for this location at around 50%, and pressure gradients briefly jump up high enough to produce some stronger conditions around 12Z, but not nearly strong enough to give high confidence. Because of this, have elected to issue a High Wind Watch for just the Arlington zone from 09-15Z on Tuesday, with the intention that if confidence grows with the next suite of models it can be upgraded, otherwise it can be left up in case winds are able to surprise us. Given recent events though, erring towards this one not being strong enough, but this region is known for it's surprises when it comes to winds.

We should also see a quick hit of precipitation across our mountain zones and through the high plains as this system moves across with meager forcing accompanying. The main issue here aside from forcing is that PWAT values will be marginal to near normal for this time of year (around 0.2-0.3"), so not expecting widespread significant accumulations. Total QPF and snowfall is less than a tenth of an inch outside of the highest locations in the Sierra-Madre Range, so expect a few quick traces of snow from this range eastwards into the Nebraska Panhandle, with an isolated lower elevation location perhaps nearing a half inch if a heavier band can develop, but winter isn't expected to make a grand return. Finally this cold front will help to bring temperatures down, but we're going to still be around 5 to 8 degrees above normal, and these temperatures will only rise beyond the short term.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 333 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

The long term can be characterized by remarkably benign weather. A persistent upper-level ridge over the western half of the country will lead to dry and mild weather across the CWA. Precipitation chances will be nearly non-existent Wednesday through the end of the week and into the weekend as subsidence under the ridge keeps condiitons dry. Dry air aloft will also aid in mostly sunny skies throughout this time period. Well above average temperatures are also expected to persist across the forecast area after Wednesday. 700 mb temperatures will be in the 90th percentile and above according to NAEFS climatology. This will lead to high temperatures about 20 degrees above average across the CWA. Highs for most locations will be in the 50s and 60s, leading to pleasant, but far from seasonal conditions.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 430 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

Through the overnight, the winds will shift to the west and then back to the north in the late morning to early afternoon time frame. The front should be here by 15z when the cloud ceilings drop and the chance for precipitation start occurring for the Panhandle. There's is some uncertainty as to whether or not the precipitation will reach the ground or stay as virga as the dry layer seems to stay put. But with the warm air pushing into the region the virga/precip looks to be a rain/snow mix transitioning to rain in the afternoon after 18z.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...High Wind Watch from 2 AM MST Tuesday through Tuesday morning for WYZ110. NE...None.