textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of light rain and snow showers is expected Friday afternoon and evening.

- While temperatures will remain above seasonal averages for much of the week ahead, there will be occasional chances for light precipitation.

- Widespread high winds and elevated grassland fire danger are possible Monday through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 245 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

Water vapor shows some moisture still pushing in from the Pacific. The mid level trough will start to push through our portion of the Intermountain west late this morning allowing for more synoptic lift of this increased moisture. RAP guidance still shows some overrunning warm air advection kicking up again during the early afternoon hours, spreading light shower activity over Laramie and southern Albany counties, and into the southern Nebraska panhandle. For areas east of I-25 this will come down and stay as rain while areas near 7,000 like Laramie and Rawlins may see more of a rain/snow mix. The 00z run of the HREF has an avg of 50-100 joules of CAPE which may create a rumble of thunder or two. Almost all of the Hi-res guidance has the showers moving eastward past the I-25 corridor in the afternoon and dissipating around Kimball. So the pops reflect that same timeline. I kept low pops over Sidney in case the showers linger or make it to Sidney. I suspect today will just be a repeat of yesterday as far as timing for rain goes.

This weekend will be dry as a temporary upper level ridge sets up over the Intermountain West. The GFS went slightly warmer with the 700mb temperatures as peak temperatures reach a +4C as the Apex crosses over us Sunday afternoon. This will translate into temperatures being in the upper 40's to low 50's west of I-25 in the mountains and upper 50's to mid 60's east of I-25. There will be a dry airmass over us while under this ridge causing our RH values to drop into the teens East of I-25. Just to our north there will be a weak transient shortwave that pushes past our ridge. This will allow the pressure gradient to compress just a touch to give us some breezy conditions. The combination of low precipitation this season, RH in the teens, and breezy winds raises some Fire weather concerns as we could reach criteria for majority of the forecast area east of I-25.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 410 PM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

A few highlights that we are monitoring in the long term are the possible fire weather conditions this weekend, of which could be critical, and a potential high wind event Tuesday in our typical wind prones across southeast Wyoming. Lets start out looking at the synoptic setup, upper level ridging in place over the region will hold firm through at least Monday morning while a trough moves onshore across the West Coast. Eventually, this trough will trek east and make it to our doorstep late Monday. As it does so, the upper level flow at 500mb becomes southwesterly, bringing in a surge of moisture that will increase the threat of precipitation across the CWA Tuesday into Wednesday. Thereafter, guidance diverges a bit with the placement and movement of this trough for the remainder of the extended period. Now, lets drop a bit to the 700mb level and talk about the potential for a high wind event Tuesday, with the stronger winds continuing into Wednesday. So, by Tuesday afternoon, a 60 knot jet will be firmly in place over the CWA along with ample subsidence (negative Omega(GFS)) that will aid in mixing some of these winds down to the surface. In-house guidance decreased the probability of high winds a bit from previous runs, but still maintains a 20-40 percent chance. Ensembles have probs in the 20-30 percent range for gusts to exceed 55 mph, which we have in the current forecast. Will the Nebraska Panhandle get into the mix, yep, expect some of the stronger winds to trickle into the region, but should stay below the high wind threshold.

The other thing that is on our radar, no pun, and may be of more concern in the long term is the possibility of critical fire weather conditions this weekend. Even though we may not meet our typical criteria when issuing a Red Flag Warning, but elements are coming together to bring this threat. With the lack of any measurable snowfall, or any precipitation as a matter of fact, there is an abundance of dry fuels east of the I-25 corridor. This coupled with breezy conditions along with minimum RH values down near 15%, makes for a perfect set up for grassland fire concerns. So, there may be the need for Red Flag Warnings over the weekend, especially on Sunday, for most of the fire weather zones east of I-25.

Temperatures in the extended will start off mild with 700mb temps in the +2 to +4 degrees C range through Monday, which translates to 50s west of I-25 and 60s to the east, warmest across the Nebraska Panhandle. As they say, all good things must come to an end and temperatures are no different, rounding out the long term, 700mb temps cool to -10 degrees C and so does surface temps with highs only topping out in the mid 30s to mid 40s, cooler west of I-25. Lows will follow a similar pattern, starting out in the low 30s, cooling each night with lows dipping into the teens by the end of the long term period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 433 AM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

KRWL is currently MVFR with no expectation for the ceiling to drop below 1500ft. Afternoon showers after 20z are possible for KLAR and KCYS but evening showers near 00z are higher confidence. Showers are expected to move along I-80 but possibly dissipate before reaching KSNY. Another day of light winds with some possible gusts up to 20kts at KRWL and behind the shortwave moving through the region today. Winds look to go light and variable as the ridge pushes into the region around 06z.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...None. NE...None.