textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures and dry conditions are expected to continue through the end of the week.

- Chances of precipitation increase over the weekend for the mountains, but remain low for the plains.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1146 AM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

Benign weather is expected over the next few days as upper-level ridging slowly traverses the Rockies. Mild temperatures are forecast for both Thursday and Friday with 700 mb temperatures hovering around the 90th percentile for NAEFS climatology. Widespread highs in the 60s are expected for Thursday, which is 15 degrees above average for mid-November. The warm temperatures and sunny skies will make for a pleasant day across both southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska. Temperatures on Friday will dip a few degrees as more clouds float into the area ahead of a Pacific trough. Still looking at highs predominately in the 60s, but a few locations may drop into the upper 50s. Overnight lows both nights will remain on the warmer side as well, with temperatures in the 30s and upper 20s, which is 5 to 10 degrees above average. Besides temperatures, there is no real weather to speak of over the next 60 hours. Even the winds will be light under the ridge. The REFS does show low probabilities for fog developing in the Nebraska panhandle early Friday and Saturday morning as winds turn more southerly, but that will be ironed out with future model runs.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1146 AM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

This weekend will mark a transition period as a slightly more progressive pattern takes place after another week of anomalously warm and dry conditions. Saturday will start off much cooler than the previous day, as a cold front is expected to push across SE Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle during the morning hours. Not only will this result in forecast highs anywhere from 10-15 degrees cooler from the previous day, but northerly winds will increase as an inverted ridge sets up east of the Continental Divide. The increasing gradient flow as a result of a potent 1030 mb + anticyclone located over the Canadian Prairies will drive strong cold advection behind the front throughout the day, although no widespread precipitation is expected due to the main large-scale forcing being well to our south. While we certainly can't rule out some light snowfall especially within the Snowy and Sierra Madre Mountains, 50th percentile ECMWF ensemble QPF for SE Wyoming is currently sitting below 0.05" and has trended downward over the last couple of runs. This seems reasonable given that the primary shortwave trough and associated DCVA will be focused more over Southern Colorado.

GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF ensemble guidance are all in fairly good agreement that our region will be located in a region of upper-level diffluence on Sunday, downstream of an amplified trough located off the West Coast. This will place SE Wyoming and W Nebraska in a SW flow regime, with current LREF guidance suggesting PWAT values will situate as high as the 85th-95th percentile (0.4-0.5") relative to climatology. While this sounds great for us in desperate need of beneficial precipitation, mid and upper-level height rises associated with a building shortwave ridge, plus the lack of any forcing mechanism unfortunately point to mostly dry conditions. This is similar to much of what we have seen this fall given an active monsoonal pattern, yet we haven't been able to translate much of this moisture down to the surface as precipitation. Temperatures look to be at or slightly above average for this time of year, mainly in the low to mid 50s east of the Laramie Range, with slightly cooler to the west.

What once looked slightly more active and exciting has now started to look, well...dry and boring, as we move into the beginning of next week. The downstream ridge remains quasi-stationary over the Great Plains, whereas the upstream troughing begins to dig south and east towards Southern California. This will continue to SW surge of monsoonal moisture, which will unfortunately be confined primarily to the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. As a result, SE Wyoming and W Nebraska will remain mostly dry and seasonably mild, with high temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday 5 to 10 degrees above average for this time of year.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1053 AM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours as dry and breezy conditions remain in place over SE Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. Can expect peak gusts ranging from 20-25 knots before 00Z Thursday, mainly for the terminals east of the I-25 corridor, however these are expected to weaken overnight. Otherwise, just a few high clouds and NW winds below 10 knots are expected.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...None. NE...None.