textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- A reinforcing cold front will move across the forecast area Saturday, leading to below average temperatures through the weekend with slight chances for precipitation.

- Fire weather concerns increase significantly Monday through at least Friday, with dry, breezy conditions and very warm temperatures. Minimal precipitation expected at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 136 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Visible satellite imagery currently shows the location of a reinforcing cold front dropping down from northern Wyoming and South Dakota. A stratus deck slowly making its way south can be seen from satellite with observations showing north winds under this cloud deck. Observations from the northern zones behind the front also showed a drop in temperature with the frontal passage. Temperatures behind the front are sitting in the 40s and 50s and will only warm about 5 to 10 degrees through the remainder of the afternoon. As the front continues south, other locations will be affected by the noticeably cooler temperatures. Highs this afternoon will range from the upper 50s to 60s for the northern half of the CWA and 60s to mid 70s for the southern half. These temperatures are actually about 5 to 10 degrees cooler than average. The upper-level shortwave associated with the cold front will also have some mid-level moisture with it. With upper-level dynamic support from vorticity maxes, cannot rule out a few light showers developing in and around the Pine Ridge area this afternoon. Hi-Res guidance has any shower activity ending and out of the area by this evening.

Overnight, winds behind the front will weaken and turn more easterly, especially in the vicinity of the Cheyenne Ridge area. The weak easterly flow will put much of the Interstate 25 corridor and southern Nebraska panhandle in an upslope regime, leading to low stratus across much of this area. Cannot rule out some patchy fog developing Sunday morning in the same area, however model soundings from the GFS still show a relatively dry surface, with HREF fog probabilities also low at this time. With stratus expected to linger through much of the day, temperatures will once again be on the cooler side, with highs mainly in the 60s across the CWA. Hi-Res guidance once again hints at the potential for some light showers/sprinkles during the day Sunday, however, the saturated layer is quite shallow, so any showers that do develop will likely have little precipitation with them. As the day progress, clouds will gradually lift and clear out, with partly to mostly clear skies by the evening.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 136 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Monday morning, Another weak shortwave looks to push through the Intermountain West ahead of the ridge pushing eastward off the West coast. However, as this ridge pushes eastward, the ridge begins to flatten due to another low pressure system pushes into British Columbia and travels along the Canadian Providences until dropping into the Northern Plains around Wednesday evening. This will change the flow direction from Northwest on Monday and transition to a westerly downslope by Tuesday evening. This change of flow will result in surface temperatures increasing from the 70's on Monday to the 80's and 90's Tuesday through possibly Friday with breezy to rather gusty winds while in the downsloping flow to develop another few days of Red flag conditions. Borderline high winds for the Panhandle and I-80 corridor may develop as a brief 700mb jet is created from the trough passing through the High Plains as progged speeds reach 50-55kts. Behind the trough winds look to resume their Northwest flow on Thursday before a shortwave causes the winds to become gusty and variable on Friday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1150 AM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A mid layer stratus deck would be slowly pushing into the region throughout the day. Observations do show some lower clouds embedded within the mid layer stratus deck but VFR ceilings are still expected even with those lower clouds. With this ceiling moving in, there might be sporadic light brief showers in the overnight period but the moisture is likely not to be even measurable. Winds are expected to go light and variable for most of the terminals between 06 and 12z and possibly through 18z in the panhandle. Otherwise North-Northwest to North-northeast winds are expected through the TAF period.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...None. NE...None.