textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through the end of the work week.

- Afternoon and evening storms will be possible most days through the end of the week. A few strong to severe storms will be possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 336 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Radar is active early this morning with multiple slow moving thunderstorms plaguing the southern Nebraska panhandle. Model soundings show elevated instability with some decent moisture advection in the low to mid-levels which is helping to fuel storms. While storms south of the Colorado/Nebraska border have been severe, storms in the panhandle remain sub-severe, likely due to a strong capping inversion and weaker shear as seen on model soundings. Hi-Res guidance is slow to move storms out, showing them trekking across most of the Nebraska panhandle before moving out around 6 AM. This is also roughly the time the shortwave responsible for these storms exits the area.

Behind the weak shortwave, warm and dry air will settle into the CWA. With mid-level moisture falling below 30 percent by the afternoon, cloud cover will be limited, leading to a mostly sunny day. Warming 700 mb temperatures along with the sunny skies will lead to a hot day, especially east of the Laramie Range. Here, temperatures will reach the upper 80s to low 90s. Although it will feel like a warm summer day, there is a conditional severe threat for the Nebraska panhandle. Parts of the environment are suitable for severe storms, mainly the instability. Model soundings from the GFS show MUCAPE values ranging from 1500 to 2300 J/kg during the afternoon. The dry surface and inverted-V profiles also show DCAPE values in excess of 1500 J/kg. These parameters will lead to both a severe hail and wind threat. However, most Hi-Res guidance do not show much, if any storms, developing this afternoon. Hi-Res guidance is likely picking up on the weakly sheared environment, and thus shows a few gusty showers at best. Despite these conditions, cannot rule out an isolated strong to severe storm Thursday afternoon/evening.

Much of the same is expected for Friday with similar high temperatures and surface dryness. The conditional severe threat remains the same as models show conflicting information at this time. The GFS shows very little shear and instability aside from ample DCAPE due to the dry environment. The HRRR shows plenty of MUCAPE and shear in the Nebraska panhandle Friday afternoon. The HRRR shows multiple discrete cells developing off the high terrain and pushing eastward throughout the afternoon. Hopefully, models can come into better agreement within the next 12 to 24 hours for Friday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 125 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Independence Day...The flow aloft remains westerly, and with decent moisture in the 850-500 mb layer, and individual layers, combined with low level convergence east of I-25, we anticipate seeing isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms east of I-25 in the afternoon, and over western Nebraska in the evening. All in all, the 250th anniversary of our country should see quite pleasant weather conditions across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska, with minimal late day showers and thunderstorms, near perfect for outdoor activities. Somewhat cooler for the holiday due to more cloud cover and in a post cold frontal airmass, with maximum temperatures in the 80s, near perfect for the bisesquicentennial, 250th anniversary of our country's birth. A decent 850/700 mb theta-e ridge axis will extend across western Nebraska, so there is a possibility of isolated strong thunderstorms across the southern Nebraska Panhandle where CAPES of 2000 to 3000 J/kg will occur, though 0 to 6 km bulk shear values near 25 knots will somewhat mitigate the storms severity.

Sunday...With warm temperatures aloft, the CIN, convective inhibition, will increase markedly with 700 mb temperatures near 17 Celsius, limiting convective potential, and allowing for at best, isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms along and east of I-25. Another warming trend begins based on 700 mb temperature trends.

Monday-Wednesday...Similar synoptic pattern to Sunday, with decent southerly low level moisture advecting northward into our counties, especially east of I-25, though warm temperature aloft will produce enough convective inhibition, CIN, to limit afternoon and evening thunderstorms to isolated to widely scattered coverage. Temperatures will continue their warming trend based on 700 mb temperatures and the paucity, limited amount, of cloud cover. Slightly cooler on Wednesday due to an increase in mid and high level cloudiness.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 539 AM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Lingering showers across the Nebraska panhandle have resulted in gusty winds, cloud cover and some visibility reductions. Winds should ease by mid-morning, with clouds also clearing out around the same time. Mostly sunny skies are expected for the rest of the day with winds on the lighter side. Smoke aloft can also be expected from wildfires, but this should not affect visibility at terminals. An isolated gusty shower or storm could be possible this evening.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...None. NE...None.