textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for much of southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska from 11AM Sunday through 5PM Sunday.

- Gusty winds are set to return Sunday into the beginning half of the week.

- High winds are possible Tuesday in our wind prones across southeast Wyoming. Along with fire weather concerns over the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1241 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

Isolated to scattered rain and snow showers are expected this afternoon and evening as an upper-level trough pushes through the CWA, enhancing synoptic lift. Mostly cloudy skies will continue through the afternoon and evening before starting to clear out overnight as the best synoptic lift moves out of the region. The attendant 700mb shortwave is diffuse at best, leading to no significant increases in the 700mb jet and, therefore, no significant winds expected today. The last of the showers and storms will be out of the CWA by early Saturday morning. Afternoon relative humidity value today will remain at and above about 25% and with light winds, fire weather will not be a major concern today, but this will change over the weekend.

For Saturday, the upper-level trough will continue to push eastward out of the area as the next upper-level ridge builds into the Intermountain West. The apex of this ridge is expected to be overhead Sunday, but warm and dry conditions will be dominant on Saturday as the ridge moves in. The 700mb ridge will start to strengthen throughout the afternoon hours Saturday, leading to an elevation of winds across western portions of the CWA as westerly winds increase near the top of the 700mb ridge. High winds are not anticipated Saturday, but breezy conditions are expected especially west of the Laramie Range. With synoptic scale subsidence ongoing across the region with the upper-level trough, no precipitation is anticipated for Saturday and skies will clear out through the early morning to late-morning hours. 700mb temperatures warm back into the -2 to -C range, leading to surface high temperatures in the 50s east of the Laramie Range and 40s west of the Laramie Range. Overall, another quiet and warm start to the weekend.

The upper-level ridge will move directly over the CWA on Sunday, leading to strong synoptic subsidence and not precipitation chances. However, a band of 500mb vorticity will push through the ridge, leading to modest synoptic lift across the region. With this modest lift, cloud cover will start to increase early Sunday morning with mostly cloudy skies expected by the evening hours. 700mb temperatures will warm to above 0C, likely between about 1 to 3C range leading to afternoon highs in the upper-50s to mid-60s east of the Laramie Range and upper-40s to mid-50s west of the Laramie Range. Near the apex of the 700mb ridge, height gradients will strengthen as a surface low attempts to develop over northern Wyoming and western South Dakota. This leads to an increase in the 700mb jet to around 40 to 45kts. GFS downward omega values suggest and classic mountain wave set up across the CWA, so some of these 700mb winds will mix down to the surface producing gusty winds up to 40 to 45 mph. With the dry conditions expected for most of the winter and a ridge overhead, relative humidity values will drop significantly into the 10 to 15 percent range east of the Laramie Range and 20s to 30s west. Therefore, decided to issue a Fire Weather Watch from 18Z Sunday through 00Z Monday to capture the greatest chance for favorable fire weather conditions.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1241 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

The two big stories in the extended that we are monitoring is the potential for critical fire weather conditions of which may bleed into Monday/Tuesday from the previous day along with high wind concerns Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. So, lets start off with the fire weather concerns, the environment may be conducive for a long duration Red Flag Warning that begins Sunday which may be extended into Tuesday and possibly Wednesday. So, even though conditions may not meet our typical criteria for issuing Red Flag Warnings, we have numerous elements that are coming together to bring this widespread threat. The first and possibly the most critical is the abnormally dry conditions that we've been seeing this season which has induced an abundance of dry fuels east of the I-25 corridor. This coupled with breezy conditions and above normal temperatures, more on that later, will bring critical fire weather conditions to much of the CWA east of I-25. Another thing of high concern is relative humidity (RH) and the lack of overnight recovery for this time period. Min RH values will continue to dip into the mid teens; however, overnight recovery will see RH values only recover into the low 50 percent range. Currently, we have issued a Red Flag Watch for Sunday but this will be upgraded and extended into the following days.

Now lets switch to winds and the potential high wind event for Tuesday and possibly Wednesday across southeast Wyoming. Lets start out looking at the synoptic setup, upper level ridging gets pushed east as troughing moves in. As it does so, the upper level flow at 500mb becomes southwesterly, bringing in a surge of moisture that will increases the threat of precipitation across the CWA Tuesday through Thursday. However, this will be primarily across the higher terrain west of I-25. Shifting to winds, which will be one of two main concerns, will ramp up Tuesday as a 700mb jet, 60-65 knots, slides in over the CWA. This along with ample subsidence (negative Omega(GFS)) will aid in mixing these winds down to the surface. As such, in-house guidance for high winds has probabilities ranging between 50-60 percent, with a few locations up to 80%. So, this translates to surface winds in the 40-55 mph range with gusts up to 75 mph, possibly higher for a few locations along I-25 and I-80. Not yet issued, but most likely over the next day or so, look for High Wind Warnings. By Tuesday evening, as the 700mb jet ejects to our east, we will see winds diminish rapidly. For Wednesday, mid-level support wanes a bit, so we are not expecting winds as strong. Will the Nebraska Panhandle get into the mix, yep, expect some of the stronger winds to trickle into the region, so high wind products may be needed there as well. Stay tuned...

Temperatures in the long term will start off balmy with highs topping out in the lower 50s across the higher terrain west of I-25 and upper 50s to mid 60s east of the corridor, warmest across the Nebraska Panhandle. Lows, at the start, will generally bottom out near 32 degrees F for many locations across the CWA. Over the following days, through Friday, temperatures will gradually cool each day. So, by the end of the period, highs will only top out near 30 degrees west of I-25 and low to mid 40s to the east with lows dipping down into the teens.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1032 PM MST Fri Feb 13 2026

Light showers continue to move eastward this evening. While most will remain VFR, a brief dip into MVFR CIGs is still possible for a few more hours at CYS and SNY. The probability for fog Saturday morning at LAR has decreased, but cannot yet be ruled out. The mention was removed with this update, but there remains about a 15% chance for shallow fog around the terminal.

Expect mainly clear skies and northwest winds Saturday with gusts of 15 to 25 knots possible. Wind gusts will die off after sunset, and the direction may become variable too.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for WYZ417-418-428>433. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for NEZ434>437.