textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold temperatures Saturday and Sunday morning alongside breezy winds, but insulating cloud cover may once again prevent cold weather highlights despite breezy conditions.

- Next widespread high wind event expected on Tuesday, with periods of very windy conditions continuing through Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1245 PM MST Sat Feb 21 2026

With an upper-level ridge axis firmly in place over the Great Basin for the next few days, warmer and drier conditions can be expected. Sunday will mark the start of a rapid warming trend over the next few days as the ridge ushers in warmer temperatures aloft. Temperatures will still be cooler than average in the Nebraska panhandle as the cold air aloft is gradually pushed out throughout the day. Temperatures along the Interstate 25 corridor will be around average, while temperatures out west will be above normal as the warmest air aloft will be located west of the Laramie Range. Highs will be in the 40s and 30s, with the warmest temperatures expected in Wyoming. Dry conditions are expected throughout the day with mostly sunny skies during the afternoon hours.

Monday will be an even warmer day with 700 mb temperatures climbing above 0C. These temperatures will reach the 90th percentile of NAEFS climatology, meaning Monday will be a mild day across the area. High temperatures will reach the 50s for most locations, but a few areas at lower elevation could sneak into the low 60s. Mostly sunny skies are expected for the first part of the day, but clouds will increase during the afternoon ahead of a shortwave that is progged to bring strong winds to the area on Tuesday. Once again, subsidence under the ridge will keep precipitation chances at bay.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1245 PM MST Sat Feb 21 2026

Starting Monday into Tuesday a broad but slightly amplified ridge sets up over the Intermountain West. An upper level low is traversing eastward across the Canadian Providences compressing and somewhat shifting the axis eastward over the Rocky Mountains. The shift will put the 500mb jetstream right over the states of Montana and Wyoming placing us in westerly to Northwesterly flow for the upcoming workweek. Late Monday night into early Tuesday morning the first shortwave impacts the Intermountain West tightening the 700mb shortwave. This tightened gradient will begin our week of possible/ to probable high winds for our wind prones and areas adjacent to the wind prones. The 700mb jet peaks at speeds of 65 to 75 knots intermittently through Wednesday evening. Then relaxes to 50-55 knots aloft Thursday morning through Friday afternoon before intensifying back to 65/70 knots Friday evening to Saturday evening. Looking at the Global omega fields they indicate strong to very strong subsident flow Monday through Wednesday and then backing off to weak to semi-strong subsident flow Thursday and Friday. Mid-level lapse rates look to float between 7.5 to 8.5C/km to support some decent mixing and allowing for those faster winds to move to the surface. With these westerly to Northwesterly winds areas east of I-25 will experience warm/dry downsloping winds throughout the week. 700mb temperatures rise from -1C to about 4-5C for the first half of the work week. Surface temperature will rise to the 50-60's for our daily highs. Thursday morning a weak cold front looks to push through dragging a little bit of that colder air down with it but with those downsloping winds it wont have much effect on the temperatures during the day but could potentially drop overnight temperatures back into the mid to upper 20's for the region. As for the precipitation chances they look to mostly be contained to our Southern mountain peaks with that Tuesday/ Wednesday shortwave. There is a plume of moisture that sets up over the mountains at 700mb with that first shortwave. With the weak vorticity stream attached to the shortwave, the extra synoptic lift should be enough to give our southern mountains a few inches of snow on our mountain peaks. For the lower elevations, the dry layer created by the downsloping winds will likely prevent any precipitation from reaching the ground. So to play nice with the neighbors I reduced the pops slightly and left 30 percent chance into the grids when the reality is probably much lower to 20 percent or less. With the second shortwave coming Thursday into Friday there is even less projected moisture than the first. While the synoptic forcing is the same with a more northwesterly flow to help allow more precipitation to the surface, low pops (sub 20 percent) were kept due to the lack of moisture.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1032 AM MST Sat Feb 21 2026

Winds are expected to pick up soon KLAR and KCYS as a shortwave pushes through South Dakota and Eastern Nebraska today. There are some lower clouds between 2500 and 3500ft between Gillette, WY and Rapid City, SD. These lower clouds are expected to go over Chadron around 20z and move out a couple hours after that following the shortwave. Winds will be rather light and possibly variable at times through the overnight period as they switch to a southerly to southwest direction by Sunday morning. Today looks to be a great day to fly with predominant VFR conditions through the TAF period.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...None. NE...None.