textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Multiple fronts will push through over the next couple of days, leading to increased precipitation chances heading into the weekend.

- The first threat of stronger thunderstorm activity is possible Saturday afternoon, with the greatest chances across the Nebraska Panhandle.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 333 AM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

A quick look at the big picture, at the start of the short term period we have a weak ridge over the region here locally while a deep trough is in place across the West Coast. As we progress through today, ridging slides east while the deep trough pushes into the Intermountain West. As this happens, flow aloft over our CWA becomes southwesterly and this in turn will filter in moisture, resulting in increased chances of precipitation this afternoon and again on Saturday. As these two aforementioned features drift east, a weak shortwave will slide up the backside of the exiting ridge by Saturday afternoon, this will increase chances of thunderstorms for locations east of I-25. Across the Nebraska Panhandle, as higher amounts of low-level moisture filter in with southerly flow, dew points will soar into the low 40s to near 50. This along with the energy aloft will help bring the greatest threat of thunderstorm activity in this portion of our CWA. In addition, with this increased moisture, fog and/or low clouds may be possible for many locations east of the I-25 corridor which may limit the thunderstorm activity, at least at the start. So, this thunderstorm threat will be conditional based on the cloud cover and possible capping that forecast soundings indicate earlier in the day Saturday. All this continues to bring in some uncertainty, but there is the risk and this will be monitored closely going forward. The main threat with any thunderstorm activity will be gusty winds and/or hail, stay tuned...

Lets transition to temperatures and what can we expect heading into the weekend. With flow aloft becoming southwesterly, this will pump in warmer temperatures at 700mb, with +4 to +6C today and a bit warmer Saturday as 700mb temps top out in the +6 to +8C range. So, what does this mean for highs? Well, today expect highs generally in the 60s across the region. But, Saturday highs will be a tad warmer with highs soaring into the 60s and 70s, warmest across the Nebraska Panhandle where a few locations may hit 80 degrees F.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 323 PM MDT Thu Apr 9 2026

While the storm track looks to remain active into the early part of next week, the probabilities for notable moisture continue to decrease. Picking up on Sunday, we will be behind a compact vort-max moving out of our area to the northeast. The upper level system will draw the associated surface trough off to the northeast as well, which will nudge the low-level moisture plume out of our area and allow for dry southwest flow to overspread southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska. This will increase the chance for critical fire weather conditions returning on Sunday as 700-mb temperatures climb back up to around +6C. With a much drier boundary layer and temperatures fairly close to Saturday's highs, we will see RH dipping into critical territory. The wind is a little more uncertain, but the current model consensus would support critical wind gusts. These conditions may continue into Monday, but currently winds look a little weaker and humidity a little higher compared to Sunday. Both Sunday and Monday will also feature a few isolated to scattered virga showers (moreso on Monday), but the chance for wetting rainfall is very low.

Unsettled weather will return Tuesday into Wednesday as the broad trough over the West Coast progresses inland. Recent model guidance has begun to coalesce around a solution showing a broad, disorganized split trough ejecting across the Rockies. Unfortunately, this has resulted in QPF trending sharply downward across the entire area. While we should still see some rain and snow showers across the area, the probability of organized, widespread stratiform precipitation is less than 10% at this time. NBM PoPs and QPF have been slow to respond to this change, and are likely too high as of this writing. More plausible is the LREF, which has widespread probabilities of 0.25" or more of rainfall around 10 to 20%, with about a 40% chance for 0.10" or more. Highs on Tuesday will be generally near seasonal averages before another warming trend commences on Wednesday. The departing trough (and/or another upper level low passing to our north) may help to accelerate wind speeds across the area Wednesday or Thursday. While the timing is uncertain, probabilities for high winds returning to our wind prone areas along I-80 and I-25 climb back to around 50% towards the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 525 AM MDT Fri Apr 10 2026

For this morning, the threat of lower CIGs still exist and may impact KCYS and the Nebraska terminals as upslope flow continues. Even though, CIGs should remain above 3K feet. These lower CIGs will last for several hours, and by 23Z, all terminals should see CIGs lift and scatter. Winds will begin to ramp up later this morning and by 21Z, all terminals should see gusts 25 to 35 knots. After 00Z this afternoon, winds across southeast Wyoming will begin to diminish, but remain stronger for the Nebraska sites through 03Z Saturday.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...None. NE...None.