textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Marginal Risk of strong to severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon. Isolated large hail and strong gusty winds are possible east of Interstate 25.

- Warming temperatures, falling humidity, and increasing winds will increase fire weather concerns this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 220 AM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Much quieter weather early this morning, compared to Thursday morning, with decreasing cloudiness as yesterday's upper level trough axis ejects well east of the forecast area into the central plains. Some low clouds will persist over east central Wyoming and most of the western Nebraska Panhandle through the early morning hours, although fog will become more patchy through sunrise as southerly winds gradually increase.

All models continue to show a warming and drying trend beginning today as the mid to upper level flow backs into the southwest ahead of an elongated upper level trough across the Pacific coast. 700mb temperatures will respond and climb above 13c, but southerly winds will keep temperatures in the low to mid 80s, slightly cooler across the Pine Ridge and Cheyenne Ridge. Models show an embedded shortwave moving east across the area Friday afternoon, which will likely trigger another round of thunderstorms. However, with the drier airmass beginning to push into the region and some boundary layer CIN noted on the area soundings, expect coverage to be lower compared to the last several days. The most favorable location for strong to severe thunderstorms will likely be east of I-25 into western Nebraska, with thunderstorms pushing out of the area by the early evening hours (6 to 8 pm). Marginally large hail and brief strong gusty winds will be the primary severe weather threats. Based on current high res guidance, this threat is expected to be pretty isolated with only a few thunderstorms approaching severe thresholds.

Dry weather returns on Saturday for all of southeast Wyoming and most of western Nebraska as a dryline-like feature slowly drifting east through the afternoon hours. High resolution guidance has started to show this dryline stalling over the western Nebraska Panhandle in the late afternoon, with some thunderstorm activity initiating over Dawes, Box Butte, Morrill, and Cheyenne counties late in the afternoon and evening hours. Will keep an eye on this to see if it becomes a trend, but kept a slight risk of showers and thunderstorms for the northern and central Nebraska Panhandle for now Saturday evening. Models tend to move the surface moisture out of the area too quickly in these cases. Otherwise, much drier air will spread across Wyoming with increasing southwest winds. Could see gusts approaching 55 MPH for parts of Carbon and possibly Albany counties with all models showing a rare late June 250mb jet core of 120kts over south central Wyoming. 700 to 500mb winds are expected to respond with westerly winds of 45 to 50 knots during the day. Can't rule out high wind criteria, but confidence is pretty low at this time due to a weak surface pressure gradient and mostly a boundary layer mixing event expected with little forcing. Other than some fire weather concerns, should be relatively quiet weather and pleasant conditions for most of the region. High temperatures will be very warm, and generally in the mid 80s to mid 90s...warmest below 5000 feet.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 217 PM MDT Thu Jun 25 2026

A large upper level trough will set up shop over the Pacific Northwest at the beginning of the long term. The western lobe of this trough is favored to have more vorticity and energy. This vorticity lobe will swing south and north while becoming negatively tilted as it move over our area Monday. We would typically expect unsettled weather with such setups, however it appears the dryline will be too far east, shutting off our access to moisture for widespread rain.

Sunday a cold front associated with the aforementioned trough will make its way through the area. A slight uptick in precipitation probabilities is anticipated mainly for the northern portions of the CWA, though widespread rain is unlikely. GEFS ensemble members have between a 40-70% of points receiving any measurable rainfall. Following the frontal passage we stick with a dry and warming trend. Highs creeping into the 90s west of I-25 by Thursday. Gusty winds will continue to no ones surprise. It probably will not be until Wednesday or Thursday that moisture makes its return to our most eastern counties. A few dry storms could then be allowed to develop with enough lifting from the persistent but disorganized troughing to our west.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 550 AM MDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Low clouds and some fog will linger across far eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska early this morning before lifting by midmorning. Another round of showers and thunderstorms expected after 20z this afternoon for most terminals. Winds are also expected to increase out of the south and southwest late this morning and this afternoon.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: IFR to LIFR VIS and CIGS will linger for KAIA, KBFF, and possibly KCDR until 14z as low level moisture remains near the surface. A drier airmass is expected to begin moving into Wyoming through this afternoon, which should limit thunderstorm coverage compared to the last several days. Expect widely scattered thunderstorms along and east of the Laramie Range into western Nebraska. Kept PROB30 groups and VCTS for the terminals with the highest chance to see thunderstorm activity between 21z today and 03z Saturday. Brief heavy rain, strong gusty winds, and MVFR conditions possible with these storms.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...None. NE...None.