textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- High Wind Warnings remain in effect through Friday evening and Saturday morning.

- Red Flag Warnings remain in effect through Saturday evening for most locations.

- Warmer, drier weather expected over the next few days before precipitation chances start increasing Sunday afternoon/evening and onwards.

- Multiple rounds of precipitation possible through next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1252 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

Warm and dry conditions are expected to persist through the weekend as upper-level ridge remains in place and dry, downslope flow continues through Saturday morning. Stout northwesterly flow in ongoing aloft and throughout much of the atmosphere as the CWA remain sandwiched between the larger upper-level ridge to the southwest and a broad upper-level trough over southern Canada. As a result, 700mb flow remains elevated all day today and into the morning hours on Saturday as 700mb height gradients remain elevated. A 50 to 55kt 700mb jet will be across the region most of the day, but a brief lull between about 11AM and 5PM will result in a slight decrease in winds across the wind prones this morning into the afternoon hours. A reinforcing, subtle, 700mb shortwave will pass through this evening, leading to the increasing winds expected starting around 5PM today. In-house guidance is strongly in favor of strong to high winds continuing throughout the day, so even though a lull is possible, winds will still be very gusty. High Wind Warnings remain in effect through 5PM this evening, for central Laramie County, and 11 AM Saturday for the typical wind prone locations. The Warning has also been expanded to include central Carbon County until 2 AM Saturday morning. Winds will slowly taper off Saturday morning as 700mb gradients start to relax as the 700mb low moves far enough away to prevent significantly impacting the region.

As usual, with the strong winds across the region, temperatures will be quite warm again today and Saturday with highs in the mid-50s to mid-60s east of the Laramie Range and low-50s west. Similarly, Saturday will feature temperatures in the low-50s to mid-60s east of the Laramie Range and mid-50s west. With strong, downsloping winds going on day 4 or 5 across the region, very dry conditions are expected to continue both today and Saturday. On Friday, afternoon minimum relative humidity values will tank into the 10-16% range with very poor recoveries expected overnight, likely only 30-45%. Dry conditions persist Saturday, with afternoon humidity values dropping back into the 10-16% range once again. Therefore, the Red Flag Warning remains in effect through Saturday evening for the southern zones and Friday evening for the northern zones. Thankfully, moisture is set to return Sunday into early next week, limiting fire weather concerns to start the week.

Warm conditions are expected once again on Sunday as upper-level ridging remains across the western CONUS. However, a lobe of strong 500mb cyclonic vorticity advection is expected to traverse overhead Sunday morning into the afternoon and evening hours. This will push the upper-level ridge further north and east, and advecting a 700mb shortwave through and away from the region. A small amount of moisture to push northward throughout the day in association with the 700mb shortwave, leading to lessening fire weather concerns and increasing precipitation chances, mainly in the mountains. As this shortwave pushes through, 700mb flow turns more westerly to even southwesterly across the higher terrain in Carbon County. Therefore, moist upslope flow is expected to develop, leading to increasing precipitation chances in the mountains. These showers may slowly spread north and east away from the mountains towards the later evening hours, leading to fairly widespread 40-60% chances for precipitation. Given the warmer temperatures, this precipitation should fall as rain, as temperatures will be in the 50s at precipitation onset time. Enjoy?

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1252 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

More active weather is set to return for the start of the work week as an upper-level trough moves into the western CONUS, ejecting Pacific moisture and 500mb vorticity lobes out ahead of it. This trough will slowly move inland throughout the day Monday and into the early morning hours on Tuesday, likely impacting the region starting Tuesday morning through Wednesday. There is very good model agreement now between the GFS and ECMWF on the track of this upper- level low, as well as timing of when it reaches the CWA. If anything, the GFS may be just a touch quicker with the trough's movement as compared to the ECMWF, but the difference is nominal at best. The GFS is definitely faster with the propagation of the 500mb shortwave associated with the upper-level trough. By Wednesday morning, the GFS has the 500mb trough over eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, while the ECMWF is much farther behind only over northeastern Colorado. Looking at 700mb, the differences look nearly identical to the differences at 500mb. The GFS kicks the 700mb shortwave out of the area and into eastern Nebraska/western Iowa by Wednesday morning, with the ECMWF still over eastern Colorado/western Kansas. Both long range models do appear to have shifted the system slightly further north, though not an overly significant amount. The result of all of this is that the GFS suggests a quicker hitting system that only impacts the region from about Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning, while the ECMWF suggests a longer duration event with the system impacting the region starting very early Tuesday morning and finally leaving the region in the early morning hours Thursday. The GFS would bring less precipitation to the region, while the ECMWF would likely bring more for a longer period of time. The ECMWF solution would, most definitely, be preferred given the dry winter we have seen thus far. However, there is still some uncertainty with this system.

For the remaining portions of the week, another upper-level trough is progged to push through the region, likely resulting in another round of precipitation chances. However, there are much more significant differences between long range models at this time as far as position, timing, and strength goes. The GFS suggests some semblance of a Colorado Low, while the ECMWF keeps the system farther south and east. Either way, precipitation does look increasingly possible late week, though the exact amount is still very uncertain at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 409 AM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conditions expected for today with mostly clear skies and very gusty winds. Low-level wind shear may be present at a few terminals early this morning before winds starting picking up after sunrise. Gusty winds will continue all day, gusting up to 50 kts at times at KCYS and KRWL.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for WYZ417-418. Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST Saturday for WYZ430>433. High Wind Warning until 11 AM MST Saturday for WYZ106-110-116- 117. High Wind Warning until 2 AM MST Saturday for WYZ109. High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ118. NE...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for NEZ434-435. Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST Saturday for NEZ436-437.