textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures and dry conditions are expected to continue through the end of the work week.

- Chances of precipitation increase over the weekend for the mountains, but remain low for the plains.

-A more active pattern is expected into the middle of next week, with precipitation chances returning Wednesday into Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1206 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

Yet another mild and quiet day across SE Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle as a highly amplified longwave ridge is located over our area. With 500 mb geopotential height values exceeding the 90th percentile per NAEFS guidance and essentially no clouds noted on visible satellite imagery today (okay, maybe a few cirrus), high temperatures across the region are expected to soar 10 to 15 degrees above average for this time of year. With light and variable winds thanks to weak gradient flow as surface high pressure remains in place, today is another fantastic day to get outside and enjoy the unseasonably warm weather. Tonight will again feature tranquil and seasonably cool conditions under mostly clear skies and calm winds. There is the potential for some patchy fog development overnight into early tomorrow morning across mainly the Nebraska Panhandle, as high-resolution guidance has moderate (30-50%) probabilities of fog and surface RH values exceeding 95%. Would not be surprised to see some additional patchy fog along the North Platte River Valley into Goshen County, but confidence is too low to include in the grids at this time.

Any low stratus should quickly dissipate after sunrise, with another warm day in store for the region to end the work week. Can expect slightly cooler high temperatures tomorrow (though still above normal) as the upper-level ridge axis gradually shifts to our east ahead of our next system. Can expect a general trend of increasing mid and high-level clouds from west to east throughout the day as moisture aloft gets transported over the region under 500-300 mb SW flow. Another dry night is expected overnight Friday into Saturday morning, with temperatures dipping to around the freezing mark for most locations.

We begin somewhat of a transition into a more active pattern to start off the weekend. On Saturday, 500 mb geopotential height falls will overtake the region ahead of a shortwave trough that will skirt by to our south, bring us some cooler temperatures relative to much of this week. Temperatures will be around seasonal norms (average high for Cheyenne for November 14 is 48 degrees), can expect more cloud cover, though mainly dry conditions as the bulk of the forcing for ascent remains well to our south over Colorado. There is a slight (10-20%) chance that a few areas mainly along and south of the I-80 corridor see a few rain and/or snow showers Saturday evening into early Sunday morning, with the best chance being over the Sierra Madre and Snowy Mountains, although any totals will be light and negligible. Ensemble guidance has generally backed off QPF over the last few runs for locations such as Sidney and Cheyenne, so not expecting much of anything (~10% chance) if a stray shower does manage to slide north of the Colorado border.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 1206 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

Sunday...As a weak shortwave trough aloft moves overhead, scattered orographic showers will be possible early in the day across the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges, with drier conditions in the afternoon in the wake of the shortwave trough passage. Slightly warmer than Saturday with the change in 700 mb temperatures.

Monday...The flow aloft backs to southwest, inducing surface lee troughing across our forecast area, and producing a continued warming trend as 700 mb temperatures rise to near 6 Celsius. Continued dry with limited low and mid level moisture.

Tuesday...Looks like a breezy to windy day as the flow aloft strengthens in advance of an approaching shortwave trough aloft from Utah and Arizona. Low and mid level moisture still looks too scant for any precipitation to reach the ground.

Wednesday...A progressive negatively tilted shortwave trough aloft will move across our counties, spreading chances for showers from west to east, with somewhat drier conditions by late afternoon in the wake of the shortwave trough aloft.

Thursday...Fast southwest flow aloft develops again ahead of the closed low aloft across Idaho and Nevada. Looks like enough synoptic and mesoscale lift and adequate moisture to produce showers spreading from west to east, until the late afternoon when subsidence behind the shortwave trough aloft will make it drier. 700 mb temperatures suggest temperatures will be somewhat similar when compared to Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1030 PM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

There are some high based clouds working their way south-southeast through our TAF area. Some low stratus between 1,000 to 1,500ft is slowly pushing in from central Nebraska into the Panhandle. These low clouds may hit KAIA first and spread out from there. Around 10z some fog looks to be possible for KCDR and KAIA with a slight chance at KBFF but that airport is a little more uncertain at this point. If fog does develop expect it to finally clear out around 15z. Afternoon wind gusts look to effects all terminals around 20z but could start as early as 17z for KRWL and the Nebraska Terminals.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...None. NE...None.