textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning for critical fire weather conditions is in effect for much of southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska Sunday.

- Fire danger will remain elevated to critical through at least Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday.

- High winds are increasingly likely for most of southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska on Tuesday.

- Moderate to heavy mountain snowfall is expected this from Tuesday through Thursday this week, mainly above 8500 feet.

- Snowfall is possible over the Plains Wednesday into Thursday, followed by temperatures falling below seasonal averages for the end of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 323 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

With upper-level ridging moving into the Rockies today, a period of dry and mild weather is expected. As the ridge axis translates eastward into the forecast area on Sunday, southwest flow will advect warmer air aloft. 700 mb temperatures will rise above 0C, which is roughly the 90th percentile for NAEFS climatology. These anomalously warm temperatures will lead to a mild day across the CWA. Highs for most locations will be in the 50s and 60s, which is anywhere from 15 to 25 degrees above average for mid- February. As a result, a few locations will have the potential to set new record high temperatures. However, some cloud cover could jeopardize these record highs. Breezy west to southwest winds may cause mountain wave clouds to develop, blocking out some of the daytime heating needed to achieve this record warmth. The warmth and dryness will also lead to near-critical fire weather conditions for much of the forecast area during the afternoon hours.

The upper-level ridge axis will be east of the CWA by Monday, however, the warmth will remain. 90th percentile 700 mb temperatures will once again be present, leading to similar high temperatures as Sunday. Breezy conditions can be expected out west as a weak disturbance passes overhead during the day. This could lead to some cloud cover around in the afternoon. Precipitation chances are not expected during the day, however an incoming trough moving in late Monday night could cause some snow to move into the high terrain out west.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 330 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

A parade of storm systems will continue through much of the week ahead, keeping fairly active weather in the picture for our area. The primary hazards will be fire weather and strong winds on Tuesday into Wednesday, and then possibly another system with more moisture available Wednesday into Thursday.

A powerful upper level trough will push inland from the Pacific heading into Tuesday. A moisture laden jet stream will push up against our mountains, likely leading to a period of moderate to heavy orographic snowfall in the Sierra Madre and Snowy Ranges. Southwest flow aloft will support strong lee cyclogenesis over northeast Wyoming. Upwards of 90% of ensemble members have the surface low to our north, giving fairly high confidence in westerly downslope flow for the entirety of the High Plains on Tuesday. Winds may start off southwest to south Tuesday morning, but the lee cyclone to our north will begin to push eastward around midday, dragging the surface trough to the east as well. As this occurs, expect strong winds to overspread nearly the entire area Tuesday afternoon. Spread still exists between the ECMWF ensemble system and the GEFS, with the GEFS mean 700-mb wind over KCYS Tuesday afternoon around 55 knots and the ECMWF ensemble mean around 45 knots. The primary discrepancy appears to be the southern extent of the strong winds aloft, as both systems are in good agreement showing 700-mb winds exceeding 50 knots over Converse and Niobrara counties.

As of now, confidence is high in high winds for the wind prone areas and adjacent zones in Carbon, Albany, Converse, and Platte counties. This is near certainty already for the wind prone areas, and the main question is just how strong can the winds get. The most likely scenario at this time is a middle-tier high wind event for these areas with gusts of mainly 65 to 75 mph as high wind parameters are not quite off the charts yet, and there is not a consistent signal for a mountain top inversion supporting significant wave breaking. Confidence is medium for Laramie, Goshen, and Niobrara counties, where the flow aloft is not as consistent amongst ensembles, but most models show fairly strong subsidence. The lowest confidence is in the Nebraska panhandle, where both the availability of subsidence and the flow aloft are more in question. However, the probability for high winds has still increased from prior forecasts, hovering around 50-60% for the northern panhandle, and 20-30% for the southern panhandle. While temperatures will not be as warm as Sunday and Monday, Tuesday will still bring near critical fire danger with dewpoints mainly in the teens or even single digits. As fuels remain critically dry grass fires will have the potential to spread very rapidly in the presence of these strong winds. Due to the downslope flow, precipitation will likely remain very limited along and east of the I-25 corridor. PoPs were decreased from the NBM to remove the mention of rain and snow from the forecast. Our far northern zones north of roughly Douglas to Chadron can still get precipitation in northwest flow, so retained a chance for rain/snow there.

The first upper level low will push to our east Tuesday night, while a strong pressure gradient remains in place over the plains, keeping winds elevated. The second upper level low will be right on the heels of the first, pushing into the area during the day on Wednesday. The mountains may not even get much of a break in snowfall before the next surge in orographic moisture moves in. This trough will have a more zonally oriented jet streak aloft than the first, which, when combined with a surface high sliding down from the north on the backside of the first trough, will likely support lee cyclogenesis further south. In fact, a narrow majority of ensemble members show the surface cyclone developing over northeast Colorado, which is favorable positioning for High Plains precipitation. The caveat is that many show a secondary surface low over central Wyoming (perhaps in the Wind River valley), which could keep westerly to southwesterly surface winds in place over Carbon, Albany, and Laramie counties and thus suppress precipitation. As of now, confidence is highest in seeing measurable snowfall in the mountains, and for areas of the Plains north of the North Platte River valley. Colder air will work in behind the second system, pushing temperatures actually below seasonal averages which is quite rare this season. Extreme cold is not expected, but highs in the 20s and 30s look like a good bet for Thursday through Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 445 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

VFR conditions expected for the forecast period. Remaining wind gusts this afternoon will ease over the next few hours, but expect fairly widespread gusty southwest winds to return Sunday as high level cloud cover increases. Look for gusts of 20 to 30 knots mid morning into the afternoon, and possibly up to around 40 knots at RWL.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 5 PM MST Sunday for WYZ417-418- 428>433. NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 5 PM MST Sunday for NEZ434>437.