textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- A High Wind Warning has been issued for the Bordeaux wind prone zone from midnight tonight through 2PM Saturday afternoon. A High Wind Watch has been issued for the Arlington/Elk Mountain wind prone zone from 11PM tonight through 8AM Saturday morning.

- A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the southern Panhandle along the I-80 corridor from 11AM Saturday through 5PM Saturday afternoon. Very dry conditions and gusty winds will combine to produce critical fire weather conditions in this area.

- Model agreement is very poor for Monday onwards, but long range models are suggesting a potential pattern change next week. The exact timing of this pattern change is low confidence right now.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 109 PM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

Mostly quiet weather expected for the next several days as an upper- level ridge remains in place across the region. Warm temperatures and relatively light winds will be the story today, with current temperatures in the upper-40s to mid-50s CWA wide. No precipitation is expected today, with mostly clear skies continuing through the overnight period. Expect overnight lows in the 30s for most areas, with an isolated 40F in northern zones.

Overnight tonight, a 700mb shortwave will traverse just north of the CWA leading to increasing 700mb height gradients and an increasing low-level jet. The 700mb jet will be around 50 to 55kts across the Laramie Range from about 5AM through 2PM Saturday. With the strong winds across the Laramie Range, downslope flow along and east of the mountains will result in the aforementioned warmer overnight low temperatures. The surface trough associated with the stronger winds and 700mb trough pushes through will setup right along to just east of the Laramie Range, leading to a surface gradients across the range around 3 to 4mb and about 3mb across the Arlington wind prone zone. Combined with strong downward omega values, conditions look favorable for high winds late tonight through early afternoon Saturday. In house random forest guidance suggests about a 45 to 50% probability of high winds in the Arlington/Elk Mountain area and 55 to 60% probability at the Bordeaux wind prone area. The Summit has a brief period of 50% probability at 15Z Saturday, but that quickly diminishes by 18 to 21Z. Given current parameters and general setup, decided to issue a High Wind Warning from midnight tonight through 2PM Saturday for the Bordeaux zone, as winds turn a less favorable direction for high winds by 2PM Saturday. A High Wind Watch from 11PM tonight through 8AM Saturday morning for the Arlington/Elk Mountain zone. Confidence is lower at the Arlington zone, due to weaker 700mb flow, weaker surface gradients, and lower probability with in house guidance, hence the Watch rather than the Warning. The evening or overnight crew may need to take another look and issue a short-fuse Warning for Arlington if parameters look better at that time.

The gusty winds in the wind prones look to spread eastward Saturday afternoon as the 700mb shortwave pushes through and winds turn more northwesterly. Modest downward omega values should enable some of the stronger winds aloft to mix down towards the surface, leading to a breezing day across the southern Panhandle, with gusts up to 40mph possible. Unfortunately, very dry conditions will accompany these gusty winds, with afternoon minimum relative humidity values falling into the 15-20% range Saturday afternoon. With the gusty winds across the Panhandle, combined with dry conditions and prolonged dry conditions due to lack of precipitation, and warmer temperatures, decided to issue a Red Flag Warning for the southern Panhandle along the I-80 corridor from 11AM Saturday through 5PM Saturday afternoon. Conditions should begin to improve as winds start to decrease around 5PM. Overnight humidity recoveries are expected to be in the 60-70% range for this area.

Upper-level flow begins to flatten out on Sunday as the upper-level ridge begins to breakdown. Generally westerly to northwesterly flow is expected to develop at 250mb and 500mb, with northwest flow turning westerly in the evening hours is expected down at 700mb. As a result, dry conditions will persist into Sunday with warm temperatures in the low-50s to mid-60s once again. Weaker 700mb flow will prevent any significant concerns for high winds. However, surface pressure gradients look to increase in response to a diffuse surface trough develop near the Black Hills of western South Dakota and moving southwest. As a result, a surface pressure gradient around 2-3mb is expected across the Laramie Range. In house random forest guidance is not excited about this event, keeping only a 20% chance for high winds. Therefore, elevated winds are expected along and downstream of the Laramie Range Sunday afternoon, but high winds do not look likely at this time. Wind gusts between 40 and 50mph are possible, especially near the Bordeaux wind prone. Will need to continue to monitor this setup to determine if High Wind headlines may be needed in the future.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 109 PM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

A pattern change may be on the way sometime next week, with both the GFS and ECMWF suggesting a positively tilted, upper-level trough moving into the region sometime next week. However, model agreement on trough timing is very poor at this time. The GFS suggests zonal flow developing Tuesday through Thursday with an upper-level positively tilted trough developing off the West Coast Wednesday. The GFS suggests this trough will move into the CWA starting Thursday afternoon into the early morning hours Friday. The ECMWF on the other hand suggests a more amplified pattern, with an upper-level trough developing off the West Coast on Tuesday and moving into the CONUS Tuesday afternoon and the CWA late Wednesday night into the morning hours Thursday. With both the GFS and ECMWF suggesting an upper-level trough at sometime next week, precipitation chances start to increase, but significant precipitation does not look likely at this time, between about a 45 and 60% chance for widespread precipitation, but only maybe 1 to 3 inches of snow possible outside of the mountains. Luckily, the mountains look as though they may do better, snow-wise, next week with several inches possible at this time. However, given poor model agreement, confidence is low at this time. Model runs should start to come into better agreement over the next several days, but as of now, confidence is low on precipitation location next week.

Monday will be the last very warm day expected this upcoming week, with highs progged to be in the low-50s to mid-60s once again. With model agreement being so poor right now, the exact timing of cooler air is uncertain, but both the ECMWF and GFS suggest a cold front (of varying strength) moving through the region early Tuesday morning. For now, suggesting a cold front coming through late Monday night into early Tuesday morning, leading to Tuesday highs in the upper-30s to mid-40s, with Wednesday through Friday having similar forecast highs. Depending on when the trough impacts the CWA will change when this cooler air is expected to arrive.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 420 PM MST Fri Feb 6 2026

No aviation weather concerns across all terminals as VFR conditions continue through this TAF period. Winds will pose limited to no impacts as they decrease ever so slightly this afternoon/evening and pick right back up Saturday morning, expect winds to become westerly and gust up to 35 knots across all terminals by 19Z Saturday.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 2 PM MST Saturday for WYZ106. High Wind Watch from 11 PM MST this evening through Saturday morning for WYZ110. NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 5 PM MST Saturday for NEZ437.