textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold temperatures Sunday morning alongside breezy winds, with a gradual warming trend Sunday and Monday.

- Next widespread high wind event expected to begin Tuesday and Wednesday, with periods of very windy conditions continuing through Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 115 AM MST Sun Feb 22 2026

Quiet weather expected to finish off the weekend as the Pacific upper level ridge axis over the Great Basin region shifts east over the Intermountain West today. Gradual warming trend will continue today with afternoon highs returning to near average for this time of the year (Upper 30s to low to mid 40s). Current IR Satellite loop shows clear skies with some high clouds sneaking into Carbon and Albany counties. Expect another cold morning early this morning with lows generally in the single digits above and below zero...but moderating towards sunrise with the high cloudiness moving eastward into the high plains. With increasing melting of snow pack, and high pressure aloft moving over the area tonight, some concern remain for fog. SREF probabilities of visibility below 3 miles and 1 mile have jumped since yesterday with a few areas over 45% now. Kept fog in the forecast for portions of the eastern plains and extended the areal coverage southward to include the southern panhandle. Models now show light south winds developing over western Nebraska which should increase the potential for fog into early Monday morning.

All models showing the upper level ridge axis shifting further east and flattening out through the day over the Front Range. 700mb temperatures are forecast to climb above 0c Monday afternoon and as high as +3c over the high plains. This translates to surface highs in the 50s to low 60s across most of the forecast area with most of the low elevation snow pack melting by the afternoon. In addition, models all show increasing winds during the day, mainly across southeast Wyoming, which should help with warming via downslope winds. Increasing clouds and increasing winds are expected Monday night ahead of the next Pacific storm system. May need High Wind headlines shortly for at least the Wind Prone areas late Monday night/early Tuesday morning if model trends continue. Low temperatures will moderate quite a bit with the windy conditions and cloud cover, with overnight lows ranging from the mid 20s to upper 30s across much of the region.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1245 PM MST Sat Feb 21 2026

Starting Monday into Tuesday a broad but slightly amplified ridge sets up over the Intermountain West. An upper level low is traversing eastward across the Canadian Providences compressing and somewhat shifting the axis eastward over the Rocky Mountains. The shift will put the 500mb jetstream right over the states of Montana and Wyoming placing us in westerly to Northwesterly flow for the upcoming workweek. Late Monday night into early Tuesday morning the first shortwave impacts the Intermountain West tightening the 700mb shortwave. This tightened gradient will begin our week of possible/ to probable high winds for our wind prones and areas adjacent to the wind prones. The 700mb jet peaks at speeds of 65 to 75 knots intermittently through Wednesday evening. Then relaxes to 50-55 knots aloft Thursday morning through Friday afternoon before intensifying back to 65/70 knots Friday evening to Saturday evening. Looking at the Global omega fields they indicate strong to very strong subsident flow Monday through Wednesday and then backing off to weak to semi-strong subsident flow Thursday and Friday. Mid-level lapse rates look to float between 7.5 to 8.5C/km to support some decent mixing and allowing for those faster winds to move to the surface. With these westerly to Northwesterly winds areas east of I-25 will experience warm/dry downsloping winds throughout the week. 700mb temperatures rise from -1C to about 4-5C for the first half of the work week. Surface temperature will rise to the 50-60's for our daily highs. Thursday morning a weak cold front looks to push through dragging a little bit of that colder air down with it but with those downsloping winds it wont have much effect on the temperatures during the day but could potentially drop overnight temperatures back into the mid to upper 20's for the region. As for the precipitation chances they look to mostly be contained to our Southern mountain peaks with that Tuesday/ Wednesday shortwave. There is a plume of moisture that sets up over the mountains at 700mb with that first shortwave. With the weak vorticity stream attached to the shortwave, the extra synoptic lift should be enough to give our southern mountains a few inches of snow on our mountain peaks. For the lower elevations, the dry layer created by the downsloping winds will likely prevent any precipitation from reaching the ground. So to play nice with the neighbors I reduced the pops slightly and left 30 percent chance into the grids when the reality is probably much lower to 20 percent or less. With the second shortwave coming Thursday into Friday there is even less projected moisture than the first. While the synoptic forcing is the same with a more northwesterly flow to help allow more precipitation to the surface, low pops (sub 20 percent) were kept due to the lack of moisture.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1020 PM MST Sat Feb 21 2026

High pressure will dominate weather conditions across the CWA, bringing VFR conditions to all terminals for the duration of this TAF period. Other than KRWL where gusty winds up to 30 knots are possible by 18Z Sunday, the remaining sites will have generally light winds of 10 knots or less.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...None. NE...None.