textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild temperatures will prevail for most of the week ahead, aside from a brief cool down on Tuesday.

- Windy conditions continue for the wind prone areas through Monday. Gusts will mainly be 40 to 55 mph, but an occasional gust over 60 mph cannot be ruled out.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are expected on Sunday and Monday over the High Plains.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 300 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2026

Mild weather is returning to the area today, which will be the theme all the way through the first week of February. Currently, the seemingly unbreakable synoptic weather pattern of a west coast ridge and a central/eastern trough continues. Largely dry northwest flow aloft continues today, producing widespread gusty northwest winds, but for the most part, these are remaining below high wind criteria. While a few brief gusts to 60 mph cannot be ruled out through the afternoon along the I-80 wind prone areas, most of the gusts should be in the 40 to 55 mph range. The surface trough is currently analyzed somewhere over the Nebraska panhandle, pushing eastward as cold surface high pressure system responsible for the colder weather the last few days moves off to the southeast. Warmer, westerly flow is moving in behind the surface trough, and surging temperatures roughly 10F above average for most of the area. Winds will ease tonight, but remain breezy in the wind prone areas. The probability for winds 60+ mph Sunday morning are generally around 20%.

A weak shortwave moving over the top of the very stubborn ridge will shift the ridge axis to the east into Sunday, supporting stronger warm air advection over the area. 700-mb temperatures will climb to around 0C to +2C by the end of the day tomorrow, with a small boost from downslope winds gusting 30 to 40 mph in WY and 20 to 30 mph in NE. Highs will be well above average, pushing 20 degrees warmer than seasonal normals, but record highs appear fairly unlikely. February 1 records were all set back in 2003 and this remains a fairly high bar to reach, but Wyoming locations will be closer than Nebraska. Dewpoints in the teens to lower 20s combined with this warmth will push RH quite low (between 15 and 25% over the High Plains), leading to elevated fire weather conditions. The aforementioned shortwave will approach the area Sunday night, supporting another lee trough over the I-25 corridor. Increasing cross barrier pressure gradients will likely push winds up again Sunday night in the wind prone areas, but the probability for high winds is around 30% at this time.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 300 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2026

Long term remains exceptionally quiet as high pressure ridging dominates the Western US, keeping most systems outside of our forecast area and bringing unseasonable warmth. The long term starts on Monday with breezy conditions and perhaps a quick passing mountain snow shower overnight into Tuesday afternoon, but models have dialed impacts back notably. In house guidance only shows a 25-40% probability for high winds at our wind prone locations for this day, and precipitation chances have all but evaporated in the NBM. Behind this system our temperatures "cool", but highs still remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal. And this will only get worse as the ridge builds over the Western US and overtakes our area through the end of the long term, as highs skyrocket on Thursday into the 50's to the 60's, with a few temperatures even flirting with near record warmth. NBM has kept our temperatures just under these records, but if trends continue don't be surprised if locations including Cheyenne itself begin to approach notable warmth. This high will also act as a shield, keeping passing systems just outside of the area, bringing precipitation chances to zero and winds below warning criteria, with ensembles and in house guidance in solid agreement on our quiet warmth to end the long term. The ridge will also start to elongate by the end of the long term which keeps temperatures a few degrees cooler on Friday, but still significantly warmer than average. While the Eastern US continues to freeze, winter is but a fleeting memory for our neck of the woods in the upcoming forecast.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 427 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2026

Widespread VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Winds will remain elevated until sunset when they will begin to weaken. Breezy conditions will return, primarily for SE WY, Sunday afternoon with little if any cloud cover as upper level high pressure builds into the region.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...None. NE...None.