textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Above-average temperatures and low precipitation chances remain in place across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska through Tuesday.

- Winds will increase across Southeast Wyoming Tuesday into Wednesday, increasing fire concerns and potential for strong winds in the wind prone areas.

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for northern portions of the area from noon Tuesday through 8PM Tuesday night.

- A High Wind Watch is in effect for the Arlington/Elk Mountain wind prone area from midnight tonight through 3PM Wednesday.

- Greater precipitation chances return to Southern Wyoming and Western Nebraska into the weekend, confidence in precipitation amounts remains low.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 345 AM MDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Low-level anticyclonic upslope flow prevails overnight as winds remain out of the SE under the influence of a 1034 mb surface high centered over MN. Tuesday will again feature mild, above-average high temperatures mainly in the 60s to perhaps 70 degrees east of the I-25 corridor. The main concern today will be fire weather east of the Laramie Range, hence the issuance for a red flag warning for portions of Niobrara, Converse, and Platte counties due to dry fuels, 30-35 mph wind gusts, and low probabilities (~15%) of dry thunderstorms producing lightning, erratic winds, and little to no precipitation. Forecast soundings across Southeastern Wyoming continue to indicate inverted-v profiles with surface dewpoint depressions greater than 40 degrees with MLCAPE around 100 J/Kg, so high-based convection posing a dry microburst threat seems appropriate later this afternoon. This activity should wane quickly after sunset as any convection will be diurnally and terrain-driven.

We remain downstream of a weak mid-level ridge into Wednesday, with a robust closed low rapidly propagating across the Dakotas to our north, placing us in a northwesterly flow regime. While not exactly an impressive wind event at least for Wyoming standards, Arlington should see wind speeds ramp up into the early morning hours. Random forest guidance suggests high wind probabilities of 35-40% during this time, hence the issuance of a high wind watch for this area into Wednesday afternoon. This is also shown on high-resolution ensemble guidance especially along the Snowy Range, with 75th percentile wind gusts exceeding high wind criteria. Although not as impressive as further west of Laramie, winds along and east of the I- 25 corridor will remain breezy thanks to enhanced flow induced by a 12 mb Casper to Rapid City pressure gradient around the periphery of the surface high. While not as warm as Tuesday, temperatures will continue to be above climatology and primarily in the 60s, with mostly dry conditions. Instability is much lower relative to Tuesday, so the threat of dry lightning is much lower, minimizing fire concerns at this time.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 345 AM MDT Tue Apr 7 2026

No major changes to the forecast at this time. An impressive system still looks to impact the area Saturday, potentially bringing rain and thunderstorms to the region, some of which may be strong. Please see previous discussion for more details...

The long term looks more active with a more typical spring time pattern. After a series of cold fronts on Wednesday and overnight Thursday, a ridge will move east of our area to reinforce southeasterly low level flow over the plains regions of WY and the NE panhandle. This flow will increase dewpoints into the 40s for the next couple of days. These dews paired with a rather moist 700-500mb level layer are increasing PWAT values during the Friday and Saturday timeframe. The NAEFS mean PWAT over the Front Range is between the 90th and 95th percentile (0.50 to 0.75 inches). This increase in moisture is likely to elevate PoP values. Unfortunately rainfall amounts are not impressive on guidance, GEFS has between 25-40% chances of seeing 0.1" of precipitation, confined to mostly the southern areas of WY and the NE Panhandle. Given the lack of any significant sources of synoptic lift and the convective nature of the precipitation, the confidence in precip amounts are low. This does not completely rule out locally heavier amounts, but the general picture at this time is not of widespread rain or snowfall. A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out either as most AI ensemble models support it and deterministic GFS does manifest daytime values of above 100 J/kg MUCAPE Thursday and Friday, and above 500 MUCAPE for the NE Panhandle Saturday afternoon. Widespread cloud cover may dampen coverage and intensity.

Even with brief cool downs with the late week and weekend disturbance passages, we are likely to stay 5-10 degrees above average. Saturday looks to be the warmest with generally mid 60s to mid 70s over the region. Afterwards a slight cooling trend with chances of rain/snow showers going into Monday. Most of the area has a 40-50% chance of rainfall Monday, but confidence is low at this range and depends largely on the positioning of synoptic features.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 503 AM MDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Low, MVFR ceilings have developed overnight at KCYS and KSNY. There is some potential for these ceilings to drop into the IFR category, but confidence is low. Included TEMPO groups for the most favored time to see IFR conditions at these terminals, plus KBFF which may see lowering ceilings over the next hour or two. Ceilings lift by mid-morning, with mostly clear skies expected this afternoon. Gusty conditions are anticipated at all terminals, with KRWL likely seeing the highest gusts. Highly isolated showers look to develop this afternoon in and around most terminals east of the Laramie Range. Gusty, erratic winds will be possible with any shower that develops this afternoon.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ417-418-432-433. High Wind Watch from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon for WYZ110. NE...None.