textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue Monday through the end of the week with slightly above average temperature expected.

- Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon may produce strong gusty winds over southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska through this evening.

- Near average temperatures through Wednesday, with a slight warming trend late this week and into the weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 311 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Radar analysis as of this afternoon shows a few weak echoes beginning to show up in Carbon and Albany Counties, with a weak cumulus field across the CWA. MLCAPE is currently topping out around 500-1000 J/kg, strongest in the eastern counties of the Nebraska Panhandle, while pockets of bulk shear around 30 knots exist mostly east of I-25. Forecast soundings continue to show a well defined inverted V signature. At the surface, a cold front lies just outside of our CWA and is very slowly descending into the area. We have a mixture of expectations out of convection today. While some high based and possibly dry storms or virga bombs will be possible farther west, some activity could be strong enough to produce precipitation, and with the expected slow moving nature of these storms, there's a marginal risk we could even experience excessive rainfall from any storms that do produce precipitation. Moving further east into the better environment however, we'll see a higher risk of both precipitation and stronger thunderstorm activity developing, particularly into the evening hours across the Nebraska Panhandle. All activity will present a risk of strong to severe wind gusts, with a more notable threat of hail for activity across the Nebraska Panhandle in the Slight Risk.

Moving into Tuesday another shortwave is expected to promote further chances of showers and storms for the day. While the better ingredients for stronger to severe storms will begin to depart to the southeast and leave us much weaker for the day, our excessive rainfall risk will remain as storm motions will be slow under weak flow aloft, but for Tuesday it should be much more limited to around the Colorado border and southwards. All of this will be due to the cold front continuing to descend down into Colorado, which will assist in also "cooling" temperatures across the area. While not nearly the stout cold front we would hope for to get more fall-like weather in action, we should descend several degrees and see highs close to average, though still on average around 1-3 degrees above normal.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 311 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

An active long term weather pattern looks to be taking shape. At the upper levels, a strong ridge takes hold of the Western United states limiting our overall wind shear potential through the weekend. Between the two low pressure systems progged to move along the Canadian border, our ridge will limit their influence somewhat, but continued light monsoonal moisture advecting into the area will make it interesting. The overall forecast will be pretty much the same thing will about a 40 percent chance of storms in the afternoon and evening across the area and breezy but calmer mornings. 700mb temperatures look to stay between 13 and 17C meaning the daily high temperatures will be in the 80's for Southeast Wyoming and 90's in the Nebraska Panhandle especially towards the end of the week. There will be a cool down as showers and thunderstorms move over an area so some relief will occur for those who aren't a fan of the summer heat. The Wyoming wind will also start to make an appearance later this week. While not quite high winds yet (except under thunderstorms). The normal afternoon breezes will steadily become a little stronger Friday afternoon and into the weekend. These winds are induced from the slightly tightened pressure gradient as an upper level trough pushes against our ridge about as well as dragging anything across sand paper. So expect breezier conditions especially in the mountains west of I-25 and along I-80.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 505 PM MDT Mon Aug 24 2026

A cold front will move south over Wyoming into the Nebraska panhandle this evening. This will bring the area multiple lines of showers and the possibility of thunderstorms. Strong gusty winds are the main concern with these storms. Some storms may bring gusts to 60 knots later this afternoon through evening (00Z to 06Z). VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. Another round of storms are possible tomorrow afternoon.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...None. NE...None.