textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- High Wind Warnings are in effect from this evening through Saturday morning.

- Red Flag Warnings remain in effect through 6PM Saturday evening.

- Widespread precipitation chances return early next week, though daily probabilities remain only between about 30 and 50%.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 205 PM MST Thu Feb 26 2026

Short term remains quite active despite the pattern being mostly dominated by high pressure ridging through the period. The aforementioned ridge will continue to hold through the start of the weekend, promoting further unseasonable warmth as highs remain in the 50's to 60's over the next couple of days. Meanwhile the CWA will be on the cusp of being located between the ridge to the southwest and troughing to our northeast, bringing an enhanced pressure gradient and promoting what else - high winds across the region. High Wind Warnings that expired earlier today will return this evening and continue through Saturday morning before finally expiring thereafter. In house guidance is remaining in consistently good agreement on this final stretch of high winds, with probabilities in the 60-80% range for high winds at our wind prone locations, fueled by Craig to Casper pressure gradients of 50-60 meters and 700mb winds into the 55-65 knot range being driven downward by strong negative omega values.

But dry conditions and gusty winds also lead to fire weather concerns, and Red Flag Warnings are ongoing for our eastern zones where fuels remain conducive of carrying fires from an abnormally dry winter. With this update, went ahead and extended the Red Flag Warnings for southeastern Wyoming and the southern Nebraska Panhandle through Saturday, as RH values look to return to the mid teens alongside breezy winds before a cold front should bring values back up and end our fire concerns. Plus the addition of poor overnight recoveries will only increase concerns on any fires that do get started. But the aforementioned cold front should help bring a brief end to our warmth and fire concerns as temperatures drop around 5 to 10 degrees moving into Sunday and bring chances of precipitation back to the CWA. That being said, the bulk of any potential activity is expected into the long term, with rain and some snow mix just starting to creep into our area late Saturday night into early Sunday, mostly relegated to our higher elevation zones as usual.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 205 PM MST Thu Feb 26 2026

The period will begin underneath WNW flow and weak ridging downstream of a closed low located over Northern California. This feature will provide a source for ascent mainly over Southern Wyoming. As noted in prior discussions, the forcing for ascent appears to be rather weak. However, topographic lift in the vicinity of the Snowy and Sierra Madre ranges may serve to increase QPF particularly on the higher peaks Sunday night. Precipitation amounts east of I-25 are expected to be light. High temperatures will remain above-average in the 50s east of the Laramie Range with 40s further west.

Monday will feature slightly cooler temperatures and overcast conditions as the ridge breaks down and the 500 mb closed low begins to transverse the Great Basin. Again, there will be a chance for a few rain/snow showers, but these shouldn't amount to much. On Tuesday, the shortwave trough will continue eastward, however the bulk of the synoptic-scale forcing for ascent will remain well to our south in Colorado, so precipitation coverage will be spotty at best.

Towards the middle of the week, we transition into a more progressive pattern, with a train of shortwave troughs moving across our region. Details will become ironed out in future discussions as this pattern shift gets closer in time. Generally, we can expect slightly cooler and unsettled conditions towards the end of the period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 420 PM MST Thu Feb 26 2026

VFR conditions will dominate across all terminals for the duration of this TAF period. Winds, as a whole, will remain gusty across the southeast Wyoming terminals for the entirety of this TAF period, with gusts 25 to 40 knots, while the Nebraska terminals will see winds winding down, except KSNY where gusts will continue to top out between 20 and 30 knots. In general, for KBFF, KCDR, and KAIA should see winds diminishing to less than 10 knots over the next few hours. However, this won't last as winds will ramp back up around 18Z at KBFF and KAIA with gusts 20 to 30 knots.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST Friday for WYZ417-418. Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST Saturday for WYZ430>433. High Wind Warning until 11 AM MST Saturday for WYZ106-110-116- 117. High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Friday for WYZ118. NE...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST Friday for NEZ434-435. Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST Saturday for NEZ436-437.