textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Low end precipitation chances with gusty showers possible Monday and Tuesday afternoon/evening.

- High winds are increasingly likely to return to the wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming by mid-week.

- More unsettled weather is expected to return late this week into the weekend, but the details remain uncertain at this time.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 216 PM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

The short term forecast remains relatively benign with mild temperatures expected through mid-week coupled with low-end precipitation chances. The remainder of Easter Sunday will be pleasant with afternoon highs in the 50s and 60s with mostly sunny skies and light winds. Temperatures overnight will be seasonable with no precipitation chances.

The upper-level ridge over the intermountain west will weaken and flatten out during the day Tuesday as a strong trough sits over the Great Lakes region. The flattening of the ridge will allow a weak backdoor cool front to sneak down from the north and but up against the lee side of the Laramie Range. As a result, high temperatures east of the Laramie Range will be anywhere from 5 to 15 degrees cooler compared to Sunday. Increased cloud cover and breezy conditions will add to the coolness. Conversely, those west of the Laramie Range can expect a warmer day as warm air aloft is advected into Carbon and Albany counties. High temperatures will be about 5 degrees warmer than Sunday, with increasing clouds during the afternoon hours. Cannot rule out some high terrain convective showers later in the afternoon as a convergence zone sets up along the Laramie Range. However, the low-levels seem too dry to support any precipitation. The same goes for Monday night. Some Hi-Res guidance shows showers developing overnight in the Nebraska panhandle, but again there are low chances of this occurring, and trended PoPs towards the drier HRRR.

Tuesday will see a rebound to warmer temperatures as winds switch more westerly under the flattened ridge. Downsloping winds will help warm the surface, but mild 700 mb temperatures will likely be the driving factor for above average temperatures. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s with mostly sunny skies and breezy conditions. Models again show possible chances for precipitation Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night, so added low end PoPs to southern areas of the CWA to account for any shower development.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 216 PM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A strong upper level low is expected to pass to the north of our area Tuesday night into Wednesday. As this approaches, expect to see an increase in 700-mb winds and low-level height gradients. The threat for high winds, primarily confined to the wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming, will increase during this period. This will be a more synoptically driven event rather than a true gap wind event, so many typical parameters such as cross-barrier MSLP gradients are fairly unimpressive. However, ensembles show a good signal for 700- mb winds exceeding 50 knots over portions of southeast Wyoming. NAEFS mean 700-mb winds are between the 90th and 97.5 percentile Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. NBM performance, and particularly its 24-hour maximum wind probability, is typically better with these types of events compared to the gap wind events more common in the core winter months. Therefore, we will rely more on NBM probabilities since this is typically the time of year where typical high wind parameters start to see degraded performance in predicting high winds. NBM probabilities for wind gusts exceeding high wind criteria are around 80% at this time for the Arlington area, 50% for the I-80 summit, and 20% for the Bordeaux area. Probabilities remain around 10% for more populated areas of southeast Wyoming adjacent to the wind prone areas. In addition to the wind, fire weather will also be a concern. This will depend how far east of I-25 the dry westerly flow will be able to reach. Most model guidance shows an initial cold front passing through the area Wednesday morning, riding on the leading edge of a very small surface high pressure system. The core of the high may pass through the area by midday Wednesday, allowing falling pressure to spread towards the WY/NE state line by Wednesday afternoon. If this occurs, expect to see critical fire weather conditions for southeast Wyoming along and east of the Laramie range. If the high pressure remains up against the Laramie Range, this could minimize fire weather concerns. Since we are still a few days out, there is too much uncertainty to suggest which outcome will end up favored. Rain and snow showers will be possible along the front early Wednesday morning, but precipitation amounts are expected to remain light.

Heading later in the week, ensembles continue to show precipitable water creeping above the climatological 90th percentile on Thursday and remaining there through the weekend. This will be forced by a broad southwest flow aloft regime as a slow moving closed low works into the California coast late in the week. Forcing, however, looks fairly limited. The general weather pattern Thursday through Sunday looks like a pattern of diurnal convection, supporting isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day. The details remain uncertain, but it will probably be difficult to extract much appreciable rainfall from this weather pattern due to the lack of organized forcing. Limited instability will likely be present, but capping is often an issue during these early season convective events, and stronger forcing is often needed to overcome that. For now, the forecast contains 30 to 60% chances for measurable precipitation each afternoon and evening across the area. This may be a little on the high side, but confidence is lower at this lead time. The probability for more widespread precipitation will increase late in the weekend into early next week as one or more upper level lows move across the Rockies.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1138 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the forecast period. Winds today will generally be light, but the direction may be variable at times. This evening, a frontal boundary will slip into the area from the northeast, and lead to northeast winds in Nebraska which will rotate to east or southeast by Monday morning. Winds speeds will pick up Monday morning, out of the SW at RWL, and out of the E or ESE in the Nebraska panhandle. Expect periodic mid to high level clouds filtering through the area through the entire TAF period.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...None. NE...None.