textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and widely scattered thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening will have the potential to produce small hail and gusty and erratic winds. Another chance of thunderstorms possible Saturday.

- Mostly dry and mild to warm weather will prevail for Sunday through Thursday, with breezy to windy conditions in the afternoons and evenings.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 131 PM MDT Thu May 7 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to bloom up on radar early this afternoon. This trend will continue, with storms becoming more numerous as the day progresses. MUCAPE and surface CAPE this afternoon are around 400 J/kg, so severe weather is unlikely but small hail and gusty winds will still be possible in storms. PWAT values are also high enough to potentially see some decent QPF amounts out of some storms. Showers and storms will continue into the overnight hours, becoming less numerous. The upper-level disturbance responsible for the storms will be slow to move out of the region as the large low over the Hudson Bay in Canada spins in place. This could cause a few showers to linger into Friday morning.

Overall, warmer and drier weather is expected for the day Friday as brief upper-level ridging begins to move eastward towards the Rockies. Temperatures will only be a few degrees warmer compared to today, mainly due to less cloud cover from subsidence under the ridge. Subsidence will also keep precipitation chances away from most of the CWA, however cannot rule out a Dawes County clipper during the afternoon as modeled by the HRRR.

A cool front will drop down from the north during the day on Saturday, dropping temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees from Friday. The front will also bring another round of moisture to the area during the afternoon and evening hours. Model soundings already show a decent environment for marginally severe storms south of the North Platte River Valley and east of the Laramie Range. Up to 800 J/kg of MUCAPE and DCAPE could lead to hail and gusty winds in storms. Cannot rule out an isolated severe storm during this time. Decent PWAT values are also expected, meaning the area could see another round of measurable precipitation.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 131 PM MDT Thu May 7 2026

Saturday night/Sunday...A progressive shortwave trough aloft will move southeast over the forecast area Saturday evening, producing scattered evening showers and isolated thunderstorms, most numerous from Douglas to Cheyenne, to Scottsbluff and Sidney. Ridging aloft and a drier airmass will keep it dry for Sunday. Confidence is high in shower and thunderstorm coverage Saturday evening, with a few strong to possibly severe thunderstorms due to CAPE from 500 to 1000 joules per kilogram and bulk shear values 40 to 45 knots. A warming trend continues for Sunday with 700 mb temperatures near 8 Celsius.

Monday...The next shortwave trough aloft moves across eastern Montana and the Dakotas, sending its associated cold front into northeast Wyoming and perhaps our far northern counties from Douglas to Chadron in the afternoon. Still though, even with cold frontal forcing, dry conditions should prevail due to dry low and mid levels. Moderate confidence in breezy to windy conditions as the low and mid level gradients strengthen for Monday afternoon. Prefrontal lifting and 700 mb temperatures near 12 Celsius will produce summer like maximums in the upper 70s to near 90 degrees.

Tuesday...Brisk northwest flow continues, and dry conditions remain with scarce low and mid level moisture availability. Cooler temperatures in the post cold frontal sector as upslope north and northeast winds develop.

Wednesday...Another warming trend ensues as 700 mb temperatures reach 14 Celsius, yielding highs in the upper 70s to near 90 degrees. The dry northwest flow aloft prevails, and with warm mid level temperatures producing enough convective inhibition, no showers or thunderstorms are anticipated.

Thursday...The ridge aloft moves further east over western Wyoming. Some pseudo like monsoonal moisture will affect western Wyoming and western Colorado, though it looks likely the scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be mainly west of our forecast area. Slightly cooler temperatures due to a small drop in 700 mb temperatures.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 525 PM MDT Thu May 7 2026

An upper level shortwave will slide southeast across all terminals for most of this TAF period. As such, this is kicking off scattered showers along with a few thunderstorms as indicated by the current radar. If a thunderstorm moves across a terminal, expect gusty and erratic winds up to 35 knots. This activity may linger past midnight tonight. CIGs should range between 5K and 10K feet as the aforementioned shortwave, with showers and thunderstorms, moves through the region. As we progress into early Friday morning, CIGs lift while skies clear, resulting in VFR conditions for the remainder of this TAF period.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...None. NE...None.