textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front will bring a chance for light snow this evening.

- A widespread, locally damaging wind event is still on track for Thursday. Widespread gusts of 60 to 80 mph are possible, with potential for localized gusts up to 100 mph in the wind prone areas across southeast Wyoming.

- Very strong winds are expected to continue through at least Saturday ahead of the next chance for precipitation Saturday into Sunday.

UPDATE

Issued at 634 PM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A few updates early this evening for mainly southeast Wyoming...(1) Cancelled the High Wind Watch for the Elk Mountain/Arlington area and the I-80 Summit for tonight only (the High Wind Watch for late Wednesday through Thursday is separate). With the cold front moving towards the Colorado border, expect a brief lull in the winds tonight.

(2) Will closely monitor the bands of moderate snow moving south across the area. Observations across southeast Wyoming and the I-80 corridor show quarter mile to half mile visibility and webcams showing some of the snow starting to stick to the roadways. If this keeps up for another hour, will likely need a short-fused Winter Weather Advisory. For now, adjusted accumulations and lowered snowlevels to valley floors.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 202 PM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

At the tail end of this forecast period we will see the start of a prolonged high wind event that will begin late Wednesday and persist into the weekend, more on that in the long term discussion. In the meantime, a shortwave aloft along with a surface cold front will dive south across the CWA today/tonight. This will be the catalyst for increased precipitation chances, first rain and then transition to light snow as colder air filters in. Hi-res guidance shows this swath of light precipitation sliding across the CWA from the northwest to southeast this evening. As the precipitation transitions to light snow, little to no accumulations are expected at lower elevations. Higher elevations along with points north of the North Platte River Valley may see minor accumulations of an inch or slightly more. This is all short-lived though as the cold front and associated upper level trough pushes off to the east, weak ridging moves back in along with dry northwest flow for Wednesday.

Now lets take a look at winds for the rest of this afternoon, a weak jet over the region will bring an uptick of winds through tonight, strongest in our wind prones along I-80 (Arlington and the South Laramie Range). We do have High Wind Watches in place; however, due to a lack of upper level support, winds may briefly exceed high wind threshold, so we will keep it a watch for now. Most of Wednesday will be relatively benign with dry condition and "lighter" winds in place, for most of the day. Then, by the evening hours, a 65 knot 700mb jet pushes in along with ample subsidence, this will kick start a stretch of powerful winds that begins through the overnight hours into Thursday. High Wind Watches are in place across most of southeast Wyoming starting Wednesday night, primarily along the I-25 corridor and points west.

A quick look at temperatures over the next few days, after a cool morning due to low stratus, temperatures have rebounded nicely as highs will top out in the 40s to 50s this afternoon, expect cooler temperatures to hold firm north of the North Platte River Valley. As the aforementioned cold front dives south this evening, expect Wednesday's highs to be a tad cooler with highs topping out in the 40s for many locations across the CWA.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 202 PM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

The long-term forecast period will be highlighted by an extremely windy period from Thursday through Friday, and then the possibility of some wintry weather from Saturday night through early Monday morning. A potent Pacific jet will be in place over the northern Rockies on Friday morning, with southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska on the southern periphery of this feature. Extremely fast flow in the mid-levels of the atmosphere is noted on all model guidance, with favorable near-surface flow in a cross-barrier orientation. This, combined with extremely strong pressure and height gradients between the southwest CONUS ridge and broad trough over central NOAM, will result in a very favorable setup for high winds over southeast Wyoming and stretching eastward into the Nebraska Panhandle. Current machine-learning guidance estimates over a 90% probability of exceeding high-wind guidance in the typical Wyoming wind prone areas of I-80 and along I-25. As favorable downslope flow and strong negative omega fields move eastward on Thursday afternoon, gusty winds exceeding high wind criteria of 50 knots are likely (over 60%) in Cheyenne proper, with around a 50% chance of exceeding high wind criteria farther eastward. While it is all but certain that the current High Wind Watches will need upgrading to High Wind Warnings, we have opted to keep this long- duration event as a watch until today's potential wind event ends this evening. Expect an update to a strongly-worded High Wind Warning in upcoming forecast packages lasting from Thursday through potentially as long as Saturday.

Fire weather conditions will also have to be watched along and east of I-25 on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. At the moment, Relative Humidity values are not quite low enough to exceed criteria. However, with such strong winds in place and limited moisture in the forecast, we may ultimately need to emphasize the fire weather risk regardless, especially in the Nebraska panhandle where confidence is highest on poor overnight RH recovery and an extremely dry profile throughout the end of the week and weekend.

The past several runs of guidance have trended upward with the chances for precipitation from Saturday night through Sunday. The potent Pacific jet stream will carry a weak trough/vort max into the PACNW coast on Friday into Saturday, which will quickly traverse the Rockies and deepen as it heads toward the high plains. Ensemble forecast guidance has come into better agreement with regard to a strong cold front surging southward with this system late on Saturday into Sunday, which will affect the entire northern Rockies/High Plains region. As this front dives southward and the aforementioned trough moves in from the northwest, forecast soundings show increasing saturation in the boundary layer on Saturday night with somewhat favorable upslope northerly and possibly northeasterly flow for most of the Laramie and Snowy ranges as well as the eastern high plains. Total QPF averages from the GEFS particularly have increased, whereas EMCWF ensemble guidance averages remain a bit lower. Still, there is increasing confidence that a light snow event may affect much of the area on Saturday night through Sunday in a very cold, post-frontal airmass. Advisory-level accumulations may be in the works for both the higher terrain and possibly areas along and east of I-25. Very high confidence exists in below-average temperatures for Sunday, possibly lasting into early next week before temperatures rebound.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1143 PM MDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Snow continues late tonight with poor visibility and low CIGs expected under snow bands. MVFR and IFR conditions are expected at most terminals. Conditions will begin to improve around sunrise with clouds lifting and snow showers dissipating. Windy conditions are expected during the day Wednesday with gusts over 30 kts possible. Clouds will decrease throughout the day, leading to VFR conditions by the afternoon hours.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...High Wind Watch from late Wednesday night through Saturday evening for WYZ101-104>107-109-113-115>118. High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for WYZ102-108-119. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM MDT Wednesday for WYZ110- 113-114-116. High Wind Watch from Wednesday evening through Saturday evening for WYZ110. NE...None.