textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and the occasional thunderstorm are possible this afternoon. Main concern with any storms that form will be gusty winds. Severe weather not expected.

- A High Wind Watch has been issued for the typical wind prone locations of southeast Wyoming from 6 AM through 3 PM Wednesday.

- A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for most locations east of the Laramie Range from noon to 8 PM on Thursday.

- A potent weather disturbance will produce windy, colder, and wetter weather for Thursday night and Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1255 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Another round of showers and storms is possible this afternoon as current GOES-18 Satellite Imagery shows a low spinning over the Colorado/Utah border, near Grand Junction. Low-level and mid-level clouds are spewing out ahead of the low and starting to cover much of southeast Wyoming in clouds. Current radar suggests a few isolated to scattered showers mainly west of the Laramie Range at this time. Showers will become more widespread throughout the afternoon and evening hours as the low continues to traverse slowly to the east. A decent cumulus field has started to develop across the western Nebraska Panhandle where mid- and upper-level clouds have briefly cleared earlier this morning. Upper-level water vapor imagery shows the upper-level trough positioned across much of the Intermountain West with a distinct, positive tilt to the trough itself. As this upper-level trough continues its eastward progression today, the CWA will main under the right entrance region of the upper-level jet, suggesting continued synoptic lift across the region and increasing precipitation chances. Warm air advection is weakly in place overhead at the 700mb level, but not overly impressive for stronger storms this afternoon. HIRES model guidance suggest isolated pockets of MUCAPE up to about 500 J/kg for areas east of the Laramie Range, with MLCAPE lower and more capped. Given some instability in the area, an isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be completely ruled out, especially as temperatures across the Panhandle increase into the mid-60s. However, forecast RAP soundings suggest a stout inverted-V signature, suggesting a higher potential for gusty winds with and showers and storms that form this afternoon. Therefore, severe weather is not expected, but isolated thunderstorms with some lightning are expected, especially across the western Nebraska Panhandle where warmer temperatures are located.

Precipitation chances slowly come to an end overnight, with Sidney potentially seeing showers through the early morning hours before the trough departs the region and subsidence returns in its wake. Wednesday will be a transition day across the region as precipitation chances end and a brief ridge develops ahead of the next incoming system for Thursday into the long term forecast. The 700mb flow suggests that while a transition period is expected, it will potentially be filled with strong to near-high wind criteria winds in the typical wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming and gusty conditions elsewhere. At 700mb, as the initial system starts to deepen, height gradients increase across western portions of the CWA through the early to late morning hours. Then, increasing gradients are expected in the mid- to late-afternoon hours as the next 700mb trough begins to deepen across central Montana. As this system deepens, a 50 to 55kt 700mb jet kicks up across the Laramie Range with GFS Omega values suggesting modest to strong subsidence across the Laramie Range and near the Arlington/Elk Mountain area. As a result, a lower-confidence High Wind Watch has been issued for the typical wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming from 6 AM to 3 PM Wednesday, with gusts up to 60mph possible. While some parameters, namely the Craig to Casper gradients, are not super onboard with high winds, enough evidence exists to suggest the need the for a Watch. Luckily, with strong subsident flow, highs in the mid-50s to low-70s are expected Thursday with clearing skies behind the departing trough. Precipitation is not expected for most areas.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 1255 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Our ridge starts to become flattened and pushed off to the east Thursday. A cold low pressure system will start to push into the Intermountain west as it dives southeast from the Saskatchewan/Albertan Providences bringing a colder airmass with it. A cold front will start push through the Southeast Wyoming area late afternoon to early evening. Models show it being a pretty stout front with temps in the 50's in front and 30's behind it. However, due to the timing of the front a fire weather watch was issued for Goshen, Platte, Laramie, and the Nebraska Panhandle counties as RH values look likely to drop between 10 and 15 percent for the afternoon coupled with the breezy winds between 20 to 25 mph. Converse and Niobrara weren't included because there is uncertainty with how low the RH will drop before the cold front pushes through raising the humidity above possible threshold values. There will be some showers associated with this front as well. Looking at the model soundings the mid-levels will saturate first and produce virga at first. But the virga should reach the ground into the overnight period and likely come down as snow as we saturate the lower levels and below freezing. 700mb temperatures look to drop to about -13C making it for a colder Wyoming Friday with temps in the 30's while the Panhandle looks to be in the low 40's. The snow showers will continue into Friday as the pressure system start to makes its way into the Northern Plains. Friday night will be the peak of the cold airmass as overnight temperatures drop into the teens and twenties. Another ridge will also start to push into the Intermountain west late Friday afternoon keeping us in Northwesterly flow filtering in that colder air from the North and tightening our pressure gradient creating a cold breezy wind as well. Total accumulations from the Thursday/Friday system looks to be around 3-4 inches in areas west of the I-25 corridor, 2-3 inches along the I-25 corridor, and about 1-2 inches east of the corridor. For the Nebraska Panhandle it looks to be roughly 0.5 to 1 inch of snow with some 1-2 inch areas closer to the WY/NE border. By Saturday morning the system should be far enough east to stop snowing while the ridge moves further east as well. The airmass over the intermountain west will gradually warm up but the Saturday temps will still be in the 40's and 50's. Sunday, warm temps in the 60/70's east of I-25 return with mostly clear skies in the afternoon. This warmer ridge is currently expected to last until Tuesday morning before another shortwave could possibly hit the Intermountain West again.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1150 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Looking at satellite and Airport observations further southwest into the CO/UT area, Cloud ceilings are going to bounce between MVFR and VFR today with a chance for KLAR to drop to around 1,000ft with those afternoon showers. These showers are expected to move northeast throughout the day with the possibility of some thunderstorms after 00z for KSNY. The low to mid level clouds should start clearing out by 06z leaving some transient high clouds to push through.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for WYZ430>433. High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for WYZ106-110-116-117. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NEZ434>437.