textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Winter Weather Advisory was issued for the Sierra Madre and Snowy Mountains Wednesday through Thursday.

- Progressive pattern expected through the week with better chances of precipitation, but temperatures remaining above normal through the period.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 243 AM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

Mid-level and low-level water vapor show the Ridge breaking down and centered over the Southwest/Texas region allowing for moisture to advect into the Intermountain West. The breaking down of the Ridge also brings a few shortwaves to impact the region as well. As the Intermountain West slowly begins to saturate, a weak trough pushes through the Rockies to give us the first phase of precipitation chances to develop Tuesday. The moisture will be mostly situated on the Colorado side of the border but due to our southwest flow we still have some moisture advect into the mountain throughout the day. In addition to the moisture advection there is going to be pockets of warm air advection and weak vorticity streams accompanying this first wave. Looking at the available 00z Hi-Res suite (HRRR, RAP, RRFS, ARW, NEST, and FV3) they all reached a consensus that the precipitation totals were significantly less with the first wave. With the average snow total right around 3 to 4 inches the snow totals were brought down slightly from the NBM. The Hi-res models do have a band F-gen setting up near the border that may give us some slightly higher if they were to shift north. But generally the peaks of the Sierra Madre and Snowy Ranges should have light snow amounts the first wave. As we progress throughout the day Tuesday. That wave will shift to the West bringing with it that band of Fgen and moisture. However, looking at the model soundings, areas east of I-25 may not saturate enough in the lower levels to take advantage of the Fgen and have light precipitation reach the ground.

Wednesday morning, another surge of moisture moves northward into Southeast Wyoming. This mid-level trough will bring more forcing with this second phase. There is a slight development of a 700mb jet as the pressure gradient slightly compresses over the Intermountain West. So Wednesday will be a little more breezy than Tuesday but nothing really special. With this wave there will be stronger bands of Fgen for the moisture to lifted from as well as a few potential Vort maxes situated over Carbon and Albany county. These features along with the increased moisture will give us those much needed heavier accumulations over the mountains. The RAP also suggest some potential Isentropic Ascent to give us some precipitation chances in the valley of Carbon county. The snow levels look to be between 7,000 and 8,000ft meaning some areas may get rain or a rain/snow mix below this altitude range. However, due to evaporative cooling areas may start out with rain and then wetbulb out and switch over to snow. The global models do show plumes of moisture and weak Fgen escaping the mountainous areas to create a slight chance for areas east of I-25 to get some precipitation despite it being a very small amount. Given the Southwest flow the Snowy range may get a little bit shadowed compared to the Sierra Madre range. However, total accumulations from Wednesday through Thursday night looks to be around 16inches for the Sierra Madre range and 12 inches for the Snowies.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 223 PM MST Mon Feb 9 2026

A slightly more active period is expected starting mid-week as the upper-level ridge finally breaks down allowing several shortwave troughs to push through the region. An upper-level trough will start to push into the West Coast Wednesday morning, aiding in the eventual deamplification of the ongoing upper-level ridge. A strong upper-level jet will develop as the trough pushes into the CONUS due to increasing height gradients between the trough to the west and the ridging to the east. Multiple shortwaves will push through the region Wednesday onwards, leading to ongoing chances for precipitation as the trough push through will enhanced lift. Similarly, at 700mb, several shortwave trough will push through to the northwest of the CWA leading to multiple chances for elevated to near-high winds throughout the week. The best chances will be Wednesday and Thursday, when the 700mb jet increases to around 45 to 50kts and surface gradients increase. In-house guidance is not overly excited about any specific day for high winds this week, but it does suggested elevated winds both Wednesday and Thursday. Therefore, a breezy week is in store for much of the area.

On and off precipitation chances are expected throughout much of the week in association with the upper-level shortwaves pushing through. Wednesday has the best chance for decent mountain snow as 700mb winds turn southwesterly, a favorable direction for the Sierra Madre Range. Moisture will begin to increase as the upper-level trough moves closer to the CWA and brings in additional Pacific moisture. While widespread precipitation does not look likely at this time, ongoing chances are expected Wednesday through at least Friday, with the potential for some isolated showers over next weekend. Significant snow fall accumulation is not expected at this time, but the mountains will likely pick up several inches of much needed snowfall.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 437 AM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

A mixture of low to mid level clouds will be moving through the next 24 hours. A shortwave will create some snow chances for the mountainous areas which may occur at KLAR and KRWL after 18z today. The MVFR conditions at KSNY are expected to move off to the Northeast through this morning. Otherwise light winds are expected to last through the TAF period.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 AM Wednesday to 11 AM MST Thursday for WYZ112-114. NE...None.