textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- High Wind Warnings are out as high winds are expected to return to the wind prone areas across southeast Wyoming tonight through at least midday Tuesday.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected over portions of the High Plains Tuesday.

- A brief shot of cold temperatures is possible across the area Friday into Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 252 PM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

At 500mb, persistent northwest flow continues into the CWA as a stubborn ridge stays put over the West Coast while troughing digs south to our east, into the Great Lakes Region. Embedded in this flow is a weak shortwave, this coupled with a cold front at the surface, will increase chances of precipitation by Tuesday afternoon. Hi-res guidance depicts the southern movement of this precipitation, albeit isolated, and the location where the greatest threat is. So, the main threat of precipitation, light snow showers with minimal accumulations, is primarily west of the I-25 corridor. Our northern forecast zones will see chances first around 3pm Tuesday and by 8pm it should have exited the CWA to our south.

Now lets transition to wind talk. Winds have picked up once again under modest mid/upper level support, primarily in our wind-prones across southeast Wyoming, some of which may spread east into the plains. If your wondering, these winds will be no where near as strong as we've been seeing, as gusts today will top out around 35- 45 mph. With a cold front bearing down, ahead of it the surface gradient tightens, this will bring stronger winds overnight and into Tuesday with gusts up to 65 mph, primarily in our wind-prones. As such, in-house guidance suggests a 60 to 70% chance of high winds for Arlington and Vedauwoo along I-80, and at Bordeaux along I-25. So, we have issued High Wind Warnings in effect from midnight tonight to 2pm Tuesday across southeast Wyoming wind-prone areas including Interstate 80 near Arlington and the Summit and Interstate 25 near Bordeaux. Thereafter, we will see winds diminish through Tuesday evening.

We are also closely monitoring the elevated to near critical grassland fire weather concerns that return to portions of the CWA, along I-80 from Cheyenne to Sidney and points south, Tuesday afternoon. Here, min RH values dip to as low as 15%, west winds ramp up to 30 mph (gusting up to 45 mph), and with ample dry fuels, the ingredients are there for this threat. We will continue to monitor and update if there is a need for Fire Weather products. Now switching to temperatures, highs today will top out into the mid 30s to low 40s while lows tonight drop into the mid teens to low 20s. Tuesday, slightly warmer across the CWA east of I-25 with highs topping out in the mid 40s to low 50s, mid 30s west of I-25. Tuesday's lows much like tonight, bottom out in the med teens to the low 20s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 252 PM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

The long term has a stronger signal for a more active end to the month but that may not necessarily equate to significant snow events. The ridge over the West Coast is preventing a lot moisture from advecting into the Intermountain West often leading to moisture starved systems and little snow accumulations. The shortwave pushing through Wednesday into Thursday starts out with Dry westerly winds and switching to a more favorable northerly direction in the evening and into the overnight period. However, the model soundings do still look a little dry near the surface leading to another little to non- existent snow event. The better event is going to be Friday into Saturday. The upper level trough pushing through will be a lot stronger as that low pressure system over the Hudson Bay wobbles a little more south. However, the question becomes how much moisture will we have to be able to utilize as the trough moves through. The models still retain a little moisture ahead of the trough moving through just like in previous runs however, the intermountain west has a habit of drying out faster than models projected. Another caveat, is the ridge over the West coast looks to be rebuilding later in the week which may also lead to drier conditions and less available moisture that originally modeled. Low Pops were kept for this potential scenario however, if we do have a slower building ridge than we can reasonably expect higher snow totals and more widespread snow showers in the lower elevations. The probabilities for 1 inch of snow for the high plains is still about 10 to 20 percent.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1000 PM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

Low-level wind shear concerns have increased over the past few hours, so added low-level wind shear to all Wyoming terminals. Gusty winds have started up again this evening and will continue through much of the day Tuesday. Low-level wind shear concerns come to an end by the mid-morning hours as the strongest winds move back into the area. VFR conditions expected through the 06Z TAF period, but lower ceilings begin working back into the region late in the period.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...High Wind Warning until 2 PM MST Tuesday for WYZ106-110-116. NE...None.