textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire weather conditions will continue through the end of the work week.

- Afternoon and evening storms will be possible most days through the end of the week. A few strong to severe storms will be possible.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 310 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Multiple rounds of marginally strong to severe weather are expected over the short term as the region sits under a general ridging pattern with daily shortwaves bringing the focus needed for shower and storm development. For this evening, a few weak echoes are already noted on radar across our northern zones in Wyoming, though these are not currently producing much noteworthy activity. Mesoanalysis shows plentiful instability, as surface based CAPE values sit in the 1000-3000 J/kg range, highest in the southeastern Nebraska Panhandle. There is some modest bulk shear present, around 20-30 knots, so if we can get some activity to go up this afternoon and evening, the instability is there to fuel stronger storms, but not sure if activity can remain sustained. If it can, the above alongside favorable DCAPE would fuel storms with hail and strong winds would be the primary impacts.

Moving into Friday instability may shift a bit further east and northward, but the Nebraska Panhandle should still see around 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE present, with bulk shear generally lacking where the best instability is present. High resolution guidance is generally much more favorable with development off of the high terrain or just east though, perhaps where a weak trough feature may be present, with activity strengthening in our far eastern counties in the Panhandle before becoming much more notable as they move further east across Nebraska. Hail and damaging winds once again would be the primary hazards. And then on Independence Day, a potent swath of instability is expected to develop out of Colorado and into Laramie County and the Nebraska Panhandle during the afternoon with 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE present. With a bit more shear present and pockets of stronger SRH compared to previous days, we may have a better shot of atmospheric fireworks on the 4th of July of all days. Once again looking at a hail risk alongside some stronger wind gusts accompanying these storms, with development a little earlier into the early to mid afternoon, hopefully getting out of the region early enough that it doesn't ruin evening festivities.

Otherwise, look for similar temperatures to today as highs on Friday and the 4th of July range in the 80's to 90's with dry conditions east of the Nebraska Panhandle as daytime minimum RH values hit the teens. Thankfully for us winds shouldn't be quite strong enough to warrant critical fire weather conditions, which is very welcome news considering just how dry it has been and the expectation that a few new fires are inevitable from fireworks this weekend. Everyone stay safe this holiday!

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 310 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Sunday...With warm temperatures aloft, the CIN, convective inhibition, will increase markedly with 700 mb temperatures near 17 Celsius, limiting convective potential, and allowing for at best, isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms along and east of I-25. Another warming trend begins based on 700 mb temperature trends.

Monday...Similar synoptic pattern to Sunday, with enough mid level moisture to produce isolated to widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms, primarily east of I-25 where convergence at low levels will be maximized.

Tuesday...Beneficial rain appears increasingly likely as low and mid level moisture increases markedly, while a shortwave trough aloft, also known as an atmospheric perturbation, moves overhead near peak heating, sparking scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially east of a Douglas to Laramie line, with isolated convection further west in the drier airmass.

Wednesday...Shortwave ridging builds aloft and with decreasing atmospheric moisture in the low and mid levels, expect a corresponding decrease in areal coverage of showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday...Expect a slight increase in afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm coverage, as a shortwave trough aloft passes overhead near peak heating, though coverage will only be isolated to widely scattered due to warm temperatures aloft producing some convective inhibition, also known as CIN.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 523 PM MDT Thu Jul 2 2026

The weather pattern is quite similar to the past few days, with southwest flow aloft, and the models forecasting a minor perturbation, also known as a shortwave trough aloft, moving northeast across the terminals this evening, and sparking isolated thunderstorms for the Nebraska Panhandle TAFS this evening from 00Z to 03Z, according to the latest run of the HRRR, which performed well yesterday for the overnight time frame.

Nebraska TAFS...Confidence is high on VFR through the period. Based on the HRRR, and the 12Z NAM run, expecting isolated showers and thunderstorms to form through early evening along a north to south oriented theta-ridge axis at 850/700 mb. Went with VCTS for all terminals from 00Z to 03Z. Mix down winds and decent surface gradients will produce gusty winds to 25 knots through early evening, and then gusts near 20 knots again after 15Z Friday.

Wyoming TAFS...High confidence in VFR through the period. Scattered to broken mid level clouds from 10000 to 12000 feet AGL will occur through the early evening hours, with clear skies thereafter. Decent surface gradients and mix down winds will produce gusty winds to 28 knots through early evening, and then to 30 knots again after 15Z Friday.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...None. NE...None.