textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot, dry, and breezy conditions continue through Sunday before a much awaited cold front arrives for the start of the week.

- Sunday looks to be the last 100+ day for the upcoming week or so, with reduced fire concerns also arriving with cooler weather.

- Monsoonal moisture will attempt to return as early as Monday, leading to increased precipitation chances through much of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 127 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Upper-level ridging will continue for the remainder of the work week and into the weekend. The stout upper-level ridge remains in place across much of the CONUS, with very limited potential for anything to move this system out. 500mb flow suggests that the monsoon will attempt to start organizing through the end of the week into the weekend, but likely does not get organized until next week. As a result, limited precipitation chances are anticipated under the strong ridging aloft. 700mb flow suggests a similar evolution to what has been continued the past several days, with winds kicking up in the late morning and early afternoon hours, then dying off after sunset or so except for the western Nebraska Panhandle where a low- level jet kicks in most nights. 700mb temperatures remain quite warm under the upper-level ridge, with daily 700mb temperatures rising into the 15 to 20C range across the CWA. As a result, very warm conditions will continue at the surface, with daily high temperatures in the mid-80s to low-100s each afternoon. The hottest conditions will continue to be in the northern Nebraska Panhandle and northern portions of southeast Wyoming, while the coolest conditions continue in the Laramie Valley. With the monsoon trying to develop, moisture looks to increase slightly, mainly west of the Laramie Range. With upslope flow ongoing along the mountains, there is a slight chance (~15%) for showers and maybe a rumble of thunder in the mountains, but all other locations remain largely dry. Additionally, afternoon humidity values will remain just above critical thresholds, likely between 15 and 20 percent, leading to elevated, but not critical, fire conditions for the next several days. All headlines were allowed to expire on time and no additional fire or heat headlines have been issued due to the slightly more moisture in the region and cooler overnight lows.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 127 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Upper-level ridging is progged to continue across much of the CONUS through the weekend and much of next week. Some long range models keep this ridging in place well through the entire week before potentially starting to break down by Friday. However, the ridge itself looks to weaken slightly through the week, with less amplified flow across the CONUS. 500mb flow continues to suggest that the monsoon will develop to start the upcoming week, leading to increased precipitation chances through the end of the month. Prior to this, the upper-level ridge will strengthen again Sunday, leading to afternoon highs in the upper-80s to the mid-100s. This should be the warmest day in the long term as a long-awaited cold front looks to arrive to start the week. Monday onwards will see afternoon highs back in the mid-70s to upper-80s just about everywhere. With cooler temperatures everywhere and slowly increasing moisture, afternoon humidity values will not drop nearly as much as the past week, leading to much reduced fire weather concerns Monday onwards, but especially into mid-week. Some severe weather potential cannot be completed ruled out as the monsoon moisture arrives and northwesterly flow aloft attempts to develop. However, exact dates are uncertain at this time as many things may change (severe weather wise) over the next several days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 507 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

VFR conditions expected throughout the 12Z TAF period. Clear skies will become partly cloudy this afternoon before clearing out for the overnight hours. Light winds this morning increase into the afternoon hours with most terminals gusting between 20 and 25kts. Much like previous days, winds slowly decrease after sunset for all terminals.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...None. NE...None.