textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions and above average temperatures will continue through the work week.

- A pattern change is increasingly likely beginning around this weekend into early next week, but the details remain uncertain.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 200 AM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Quiet and warmer than normal weather will continue over the next 48 hours with mostly clear skies over southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska early this morning. Upper level ridge axis over most of the Intermountain West will continue to drive the dry conditions and unseasonable warmth over the region. A few showers and embedded thunder showers noted on radar this morning over northern Colorado and north central Colorado. This activity should remain south of the border, so will keep POP near 0% for the rest of this morning.

For today and Thursday, little to no precipitation is expected with dry conditions continuing through early Friday morning. Although shallow fair weather CU is expected again today in response to surface heating, didn't get much shower activity yesterday north of the CO/WY border...and expect that trend to continue today with high res guidance backing off on any threat of showers. This appears to be mainly due to the delay with the slow backdoor cold front moving into the area. Surface analysis shows what appears to be the stalled backdoor cold front near over the western Nebraska panhandle and will likely move little through this morning. Models still show some low level convergence near the Laramie Range this afternoon, but with a dry boundary layer and poor midlevel lapse rates, kept POP below 10 percent, but most places will just see virga outside of the mountains if anything does form.

High temperatures won't be quite as high as the previous few days, but near record highs are still expected...especially at Laramie and Rawlins. The next decent chance for widespread record highs will be Friday afternoon. Otherwise, temperatures will remain around 15 degrees above average for early October with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s, warmest for elevations below 5000 feet.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1205 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

The long term forecast will change from having warm light winds and clearer skies to a more active pattern. Starting sometime Friday night and through the weekend a low pressure system will start to push in from the Pacific Northwest and begin to start feeding that Pacific Moisture into the Intermountain West region. THe height gradient will also begin to tighten so breezier conditions can also be expected as the process begins to take shape. Depending on which global model you look at they all paint almost the same overall picture with some minute timing differences. However with weather, the details and timing are always the deciding factors with how this unfolds. Right now, some of the global ensembles have precipitation starting as early as Sunday morning some have it starting as early as Sunday night. Which could mean the difference of rain or snow for our mountain peaks and an earlier snowpack the better in my opinion. However, everywhere else in our area thats not the peaks of the Snowy range or Sierra Madres look to be getting rain and high temperatures look to only drop into the 50's and 60's during this period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1155 AM MDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the forecast period. Winds are generally light today, but occasional gusts up to around 20 knots are possible. The direction will become variable at times overnight before settling on west for most terminals mid Thursday morning.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...None. NE...None.