textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of strong gusty winds will continue through late Wednesday evening, with periods of very windy conditions continuing through Friday. High Wind Warnings are currently in effect for most of southeast Wyoming and portions of the southern Nebraska Panhandle.

- Elevated fire weather concerns expected through the end of the week, mainly in the southern Nebraska panhandle.

- Mountain snowfall, with some rain/snow mix across the lower elevations, expected late Tuesday and into Wednesday. 8 to 16 inches of snow possible across the mountains. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect for the higher mountains through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 310 PM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

Forecast remains mostly on track this afternoon with high winds in full effect across most zones in a High Wind Warning. Strongest wind gusts so far have been 81 MPH in the South Laramie Range and Foothills. Most other gusts have been in the 60s with a few 70s sprinkled in there. Most zones in a High Wind Warning today have verified, with the exception of northern Carbon and Albany Counties, although winds have been consistently gusting in the 50s here. High winds will continue through the afternoon as a weak boundary moves south across the forecast area. MSLP and 700 mb height gradients will stay compressed, allowing winds aloft to stay around 55 kts into the overnight hours. Subsidence will weaken a bit overnight, which will likely lead to a break in high winds for zones outside of the wind prones. Subsidence will still be strong over the wind prones, so places like Arlington and the South Laramie Range and Foothills will likely still see gusts over 60 MPH tonight.

Besides the wind, this boundary will also bring some precipitation to the area. Webcam observations show some rain and snow showers around the Arlington area and SNOTELs in the mountains indicate snow has just started recently in the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges. Snow is expected to continue in the mountains overnight with heavy snow possible at times. Models keep showing a rather sharp cut off in snow accumulation at around 9000 feet. Above this, 8 to 16 inches could be possible, while below this could see only a few inches of snow. Currently, Winter Weather Advisories are in place for the mountains through Wednesday afternoon, however this will have to be closely watched in case an upgrade to a Warning is necessary. The NBM remains an outlier in QPF amounts with this system, showing almost double the amount other models are showing, leading to a few feet of snow above 10000 feet in the mountains. Most models are closer to an inch of QPF in the mountains, leading to totals much lower than this. Trended snow totals closer to the lower QPF models, so the current Advisory looked on track. Will also have to keep an eye on the Arlington area as a few inches of snow accumulation is not out of the question which could make travel difficult when combined with the strong winds.

High winds will continue into the day Wednesday ahead of an incoming front. As previously mentioned strong gradients will drive strengthening winds aloft. 700 mb winds will peak around 70 kts with very strong subsidence and mountain wave activity to bring these winds down to the surface. Given the wind gusts today, decided to upgrade the remaining High Wind Watches in the Nebraska panhandle to Warnings. Widespread gusts of 60 MPH are expected across the Warning area with the strongest wind gusts once again expected in the typical wind prone areas. The frontal passage is expected sometime during the evening hours. This will likely turn the winds off for most locations as winds turn more northwesterly. Unfortunately, models are now hinting that high winds in the wind prones will likely continue through at least Wednesday night, so extensions to these Warnings may be necessary. Besides wind, the front could have some precipitation with it. Given the warm temperatures and time of day, most precipitation will fall as rain and be through the area by the evening.

A return to drier and potentially less windy conditions is expected Thursday. Temperatures behind the front will be slightly cooler than Wednesday, but highs will still be above average in the 40s and 50s. Some lingering high winds could still be possible in the wind prones during the day, however it appears the GFS has started to back off on strong winds aloft. A few lingering mountain snow showers could be possible Thursday morning, but overall the trend will be towards drier weather as the ridge over the west coast strengthens.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 310 PM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

Mild conditions will prevail into the weekend as we remain downstream of a longwave ridge, placing us in a NW flow regime. Friday will be the windiest day of the period, especially for the wind-prone areas of Bordeaux and Arlington as model cross-sections indicate 40-50 knot cross-barrier flow at mountain-top in the presence of 50-60 knots at 700 mb. Temperatures will again remain well-above average, with locations east of the Laramie Range approaching 60 degrees. Our Nebraska counties will likely soar into the mid 60s which isn't quite record territory, but it is about 20 degrees above climatology. Fire conditions will have to be monitored closely given progged sustained wind speeds of 25-30 knots, NBM mean minimum RH values around 15%, warm temperatures, and dry fuels. Friday is certainly a day to be extra cautious when planning outdoor activities.

Moving onto Saturday and Sunday, breezy and mild conditions will continue, although the wind won't be nearly as impressive as Friday. Later on the in weekend, we will be placed in the right-exit region of a 110 knot 250 mb jet as well as downstream of a subtle shortwave trough, which will bring chances for some beneficial precipitation mainly for our mountain ranges in the western portion of our CWA. Precipitation amounts don't look impressive at this time, especially for locations east of the I-25 corridor, but the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges could pick up a quarter of an inch of QPF based on ensemble guidance. More specifics will be discussed in the next few days.

Another shortwave trough embedded in a zonal flow regime will propagate across our CWA on Monday, however forcing for ascent appears to be rather weak and short-lived, so any precipitation is expected to be light. Tuesday, we remain in a split-flow pattern with above-average 500 mb heights over our area, resulting in temperatures continuing to be above normal. Heading into the middle of the week, guidance is hinting at a closed low located over California ejecting off to the north and east, which will be something to monitor and discuss in future forecasts, although confidence in this scenario producing meaningful precipitation for our CWA is minimal at this time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 430 PM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

Very gusty winds, between 35 and 50 knots, will continue to plague southeast Wyoming terminals throughout this TAF period with LLWS possible for KLAR and KCYS. Nebraska terminals, as a whole, will diminish this evening to less than 15 knots. However, winds will pick back up starting around 12Z for KSNY then the remaining sites by 17Z with gusts 25-45 knots. Precipitation wise, -RA remains possible for KRWL, KLAR, and KCYS with -SN possibly mixing in at times at KRWL and KLAR. VIS shouldn't dip below 3SM, but CIGs may drop to around 3K feet at KRWL and KLAR.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...High Wind Warning until 9 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ104-105-107- 109-110-115-118. High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ106-116-117. High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ108-119. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ112- 114. High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 8 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ113. NE...High Wind Warning from 8 AM to 5 PM MST Wednesday for NEZ019- 055. High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 5 PM MST Wednesday for NEZ020- 054.