textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers possible Monday, with snow above 9000 feet.

- Slow warming trend Monday through Wednesday with another round of record high temperatures possible Wednesday afternoon.

- Fire weather concerns will increase Tuesday and Wednesday with increasing westerly winds and lower afternoon humidity.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 240 AM MDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Current observations across the area show temperatures not quite as cold as yesterday with readings in the upper 30s to low 40s. Ample cloud cover this morning should keep temperatures from falling below freezing. Current radar loop shows some shower activity developing over the mountains, mainly the Laramie Range. This is in response to a developing 110 kt jet max and midlevel vorticity maximum moving across Wyoming. Both these features will take their time moving into western Nebraska today. With some low level instability expected this afternoon, expect widely scattered to scattered rain showers to develop, possibly in two separate waves, with the first one mainly across the mountains and adjacent valleys later this morning through early this afternoon...and the second wave across the southeast high plains, mainly near the I-80 corridor from Cheyenne to the southern Nebraska Panhandle. High res guidance has been in much better agreement with this activity the last few runs, so increased POP for the mountains and the high plains east of the southern Laramie Range. Expect some snow above 9000 feet, but accumulations should generally be less than an inch. Otherwise, another warming trend will begin today, even with plentiful cloud cover as winds shift into the west with some downslope flow expected.

For Tuesday, all models show the flattened upper level ridge axis building northward slightly and becoming a little more amplified. 700mb temperatures will respond with temps increasing over 5c to near 10c close to the Colorado border. This translates to high temperatures near the surface returning to the upper 60s to upper 70s...possibly around 80 for elevations below 4500 feet Tuesday afternoon. It will be drier with increasing westerly winds. In-house wind guidance shows a 35% to 50% chance for high wind criteria for the I-80 corridor around Elk Mountain and Arlington areas Tuesday morning. This is a slightly upward trend compared to previous guidance. Analysis of the environment shows marginal conditions with good low level subsidence, but also mediocre 700mb flow below 45 knots and sub-par 850/700mb low level gradients suggest an elevated wind event (i.e. widespread gusts 45 to 55 MPH and/or isolated brief 60 MPH gusts in one or two locations), so will not issue any High Wind headlines at this time, but will brief the next shift on the potential. Gusty winds should subside around sunset Tuesday. Otherwise, mild overnight low temperatures late Tuesday night will likely set the stage for record warmth, again, on Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 155 PM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Daily high temperature records are likely to be broken on Wednesday, at some places by nearly 10 degrees, as temperatures soar into the 80 and 90s outside the Ranges. Winds will be gusty given the increasing pressure gradients contributed by the passing of these near surface waves and the stout ridge to our south. 700 mb geopotential height differences across the Casper and Bordeaux gaps are reaching 50 meters, increasing the confidence of winds greater than 50 mph. Widespread gusts out of the west to 30 to 45 mph are possible along I-25 and points east. The wind prones could receive gusts to 60-70 mph. This is not great news concerning fire weather during the day. The Storm Prediction Center has kept 70 Critical condition probabilities over the CWA given these anticipated conditions.

Overnight Wednesday, temperatures fall into the upper 30s and low 40s across the region. We anticipate a cold front to pass through overnight into the morning hours of Thursday. However, there is uncertainty about timing as guidance continues to push the timing later in the day. This cold front is expected to drop daytime temperatures by about 20-30 degrees east and north of the Ranges while interior areas may drop by about 10 degrees. This front is anticipated to be rather dry. Perhaps a few rain and snow showers along the Sierra Madre, Snowy, and Southern Laramie Ranges spilling into the Cheyenne Ridge in the afternoon. PoPs are around 15-35 percent, but no appreciable accumulations are expected at this time.

Thursday night looks chilly with lows below freezing at most places. These seasonable temperatures are appreciated given the early taste of summer we have been getting. Friday looks to be dry, cloudy, and cool with lite winds given the post frontal ridging. Saturday starts another warming trend, while staying somewhat true to what it means to be in the springtime here in Southeastern Wyoming and Western Nebraska. Expect the ridge to make another intrusion for at least another couple of days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 550 AM MDT Mon Mar 23 2026

High pressure aloft will build over the area early this week. A weak disturbance aloft will keep skies mostly cloudy and help trigger a few showers across southern Wyoming and the southern Nebraska Panhandle this afternoon through tonight.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions are expected to prevail with CIGS generally above 8000 to 10000 feet. Westerly winds will gust up to 25-30 knots at the southeast Wyoming terminals, with southerly winds gusting to 35 knots for the western Nebraska terminals through the day. Winds will diminish around sunset.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...None. NE...None.