textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect cooler temperatures Friday with south to southeast winds developing. These winds may be strong at times tonight over the High Plains.

- Another round of near record warmth and critical fire weather conditions is expected Saturday through Monday. A few high- based virga showers will be possible each evening.

- Improved chances for precipitation return to start April in the middle part to latter part of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1230 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

A seasonably chilly and partly cloudy day continues over much of southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska in the wake of a strong cold frontal passage yesterday. Afternoon temperatures are running near to even a few degrees below average for the first time in over 10 days. Afternoon satellite imagery has shown a slow scattering of cloud cover especially in areas where surface downslope flow has resumed via local terrain influences. This trend will continue this afternoon into the evening with a mainly clear and seasonably chilly overnight expected in areas that can keep winds light for the longest.

Overnight, reverse pressure gradients will develop over the High Plains and enhance an already decent setup for a low-level jet. As mentioned in previous forecast packages, sites from Laramie eastward will feel the influence of this setup, with strong south to south-southeasterly winds moving in aloft in the 700mb layer. Overnight winds will soar upward around/after 06z particularity along higher terrain locations such as the Pine Ridge, western NE sand hills, Cheyenne Ridge, and the slopes of the Laramie Range. Forecast guidance has remained relatively consistent showing 40-50 mph surface winds possible in these locations, with wind gusts upward of 30 mph at Scottsbluff, Chadron, Alliance and Sidney. Probabilities of gusts over 60mph high wind criteria remain low, generally less than 25%, so high wind headlines will not be issued for this event.

A dramatic warm-up is in store for Sunday across the entire Rockies/High Plains region as mid-level temperatures soar and ridging builds in from the southwest. Afternoon high temperatures will return to around 20 degrees above normal with near-record warmth possible from Saturday through Monday. Along with the warm-up, afternoon RH values will drop well below critical thresholds each of the three afternoons from Saturday onward, with poor RH recovery overnight. This, combined with moderate westerly flow around 20-30mph, will set the stage for another extended period of critical fire weather conditions. Extremely high confidence remains present in forecast guidance and we have opted to upgrade all fire weather products to Red Flag Warnings through this stretch. The only exception still remains in the NE panhandle on Saturday, where there will be a convenient gap in gusty winds as the overnight low-level jet ramps down and before westerly flow spreads eastward into the panhandle late in the afternoon. To top off the fire weather threat, isolated high-based shower activity will be possible late in the day each day through the weekend as a bit of mid- level moisture works in from the west and convective temperatures are breached. While measurable QPF is not likely from this convection, isolated instances of lightning may exacerbate the fire weather threat.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Monday...Continued mild as the flow aloft remains from the west. With some low and mid level moisture, we may see isolated to widely scattered late day showers Monday evening.

Tuesday...As a shortwave trough aloft and its associated cold front pass by the forecast area, high temperatures will decrease significantly into the 40s. Looks like enough low and mid level moisture to produce scattered to numerous showers, most numerous near the Colorado state line.

Wednesday...Westerly flow aloft prevails, helping a surface lee trough to form, and producing a warming trend. With 700 mb temperatures near 3 Celsius, maximum temperatures will reach the 50s to lower 60s. Enough low and mid level moisture remains to produce scattered to numerous showers.

Thursday...In this progressive pattern, another shortwave trough aloft will move overhead and will combine with adequate low and mid level moisture to produce scattered showers. The warming trend continues with highs in the mid to upper 50s west of I-25, and mid 60s to lower 70s east of I-25.

Friday...Significantly cooler again in the wake of a shortwave trough and its associated cold frontal passage. Frontal lifting and cyclonic curvature aloft will help produce scattered rain and snow showers.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 530 PM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals for the duration of this TAF period. The only thing of concern that may impact aviation operations will be the potential for LLWS at KCYS, KCDR, KSNY, and KSNY. So, KCYS will be impacted from 14Z to 18Z Saturday and the Nebraska Panhandle terminals 08Z tonight to 12Z Saturday. Otherwise, expect winds across southeast Wyoming to ramp up by 18Z Saturday with gusts 25 to 35 knots while the Nebraska sites will see winds diminish to 10 knots or less by 21Z Saturday.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 9 PM MDT Monday for WYZ417>423-425-427>433. NE...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 9 PM MDT Monday for NEZ434>437.