textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- High Wind Warnings remain in effect through Friday evening and Saturday morning.

- Red Flag Warnings remain in effect through Saturday evening for most locations.

- Warmer, drier weather expected over the next few days before precipitation chances start increasing Sunday afternoon/evening and onwards.

- Multiple rounds of precipitation possible through next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 300 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

Forecast remains active in the short term as we see high winds and critical fire weather conditions through Saturday, with a pattern change then bringing precipitation chances to the area. For today and Saturday - ongoing high winds and low RH values will continue to fuel highlights across the region into Saturday afternoon. High wind warnings are expected to remain in place through Saturday morning, with winds weakening after 12Z as pressure gradients relax and the jet weakens as well. In house guidance remains on board with this scenario, with probabilities of winds 58+ mph nosediving after 12Z (<40%). But that will not be our only hazard, as the ridging in control of the region continues to restrict our moisture and keep temperatures warm, promoting a critical fire weather environment that will persist through Saturday afternoon. Overnight recoveries will continue to remain poor to moderate (35-55%), but a backdoor cold front on Saturday will decrease temperatures across our northern zones and bring enough moisture for these locations to preclude further critical fire weather concerns. But for our southeastern zones, generally from Platte and Goshen Counties and southeastwards into the I-80 corridor, RH values will once again descend into the mid to low teens. This combined with winds remaining breezy in the 25-35 mph range will continue to promote critical conditions, with the Red Flag Warning remaining in place across this region through 00Z Sunday.

For Saturday evening and Sunday - Ridging over the western US will begin to falter as approaching low pressure from the Pacific weakens this dominating high. An initial shortwave will move across the region during this timeframe ahead of the larger low, causing our winds to shift and moisture to increase for the CWA. This will help to finally temper our absurd critical fire weather environment, and to increase precipitation chances first across our southern high elevation zones before overspreading across most of the CWA late Sunday into early Monday. With flow first westerly before turning more southwesterly late in the forecast period, upslope flow will be on the rise for our high elevation zones, so we should see a notable increase in precipitation chances for these areas. But with temperatures remaining 10-15 degrees above normal, don't expect much wintry precipitation out of this activity aside from the mountains, and instead welcome a more spring-like rain. Though any precipitation we can get will be welcome at this point with significant drought throughout our region.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 300 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

The work week will begin under the influence of a weak ridge located downstream of a rather vigorous shortwave trough situated over Northern California, resulting in a continuation of the anomalously warm conditions across SE Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle. There is weak isentropic ascent located over our area Monday morning into the afternoon, which is also reflected in the omega fields. 700 mb flow remains quasi-zonal and forecast soundings indicate some dry air in the low levels, so the Sierra Madre and Snowy ranges will be the favored areas for QPF, although there will still be a chance for a few rain or snow showers at lower elevations, though it may be more of a virga event, resulting in more wind than precipitation.

Monday night into Tuesday is when we have the highest confidence of seeing the majority of our precipitation, as there is some 700 mb frontogenesis across Southern Wyoming helping to provide some forcing for ascent, hence increasing our chances for more widespread precipitation. The NBM has mean QPF ranging from 0.15-0.20 inches for areas east of the I-25 corridor, whereas our mountain ranges should see an additional 0.10 inches given the mid-level flow regime. NBM probabilities of seeing 0.1 inches of liquid or greater is a near certainty for the Snowy and Sierra Madre ranges, whereas east of the Laramie Range areas have a 50% shot at seeing QPF exceeding this threshold. 50% probabilities also exist at achieving WWA criteria for the Snowy and Sierra Madre ranges, so stay tuned for future updates as this event gets closer.

As this system is rather disorganized and the majority of the synoptic-scale forcing for ascent is located well to our south over Colorado, this event unfortunately won't put much of a dent in our ongoing drought conditions. On Tuesday, temperatures at lower elevations are progged to be in the upper 40s to lower 50s, so any precipitation in extreme Eastern Wyoming and our Nebraska counties will likely fall as rain.

On Wednesday high temperatures rebound into the mid to upper 50s for areas east of the Laramie Range as a weak mid-level ridge builds in ahead of the next shortwave trough, therefore conditions will remain dry. Thursday our next system of interest should impact our area as it moves in from the west. This system digs in more so from the north compared to the system earlier in the week, so we can expect a dip in our temperatures and increasing chances for beneficial moisture for Southeastern Wyoming and Western Nebraska. Our winds will also ramp up at this time especially in the usual wind-prone areas of Bordeaux and Arlington thanks to 40-50 knot 700 mb flow rounding the base of the shortwave trough in addition to anafrontal gradient flow as this system lifts to the north and east away from our area. In-house guidance has maximum probabilities of around 50% of seeing 60 mph gusts or greater in these areas, so while not as impressive as what we have seen most recently, high winds will return to the picture for the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1020 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conditions will dominate across all terminals for the duration of this TAF period. Winds will generally remain gusty for the southeast Wyoming terminals through 03Z with west/northwest gusts 20 to 35 knots, and thereafter diminish to less than 15 knots. The Nebraska panhandle sites will see winds less than 10 knots through the night and pick right back up by 18Z tomorrow with northwest/north winds gusting up to 25 knots.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST Saturday for WYZ430>433. High Wind Warning until 11 AM MST Saturday for WYZ106-110-116- 117. High Wind Warning until 2 AM MST Saturday for WYZ109. NE...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST Saturday for NEZ436-437.