textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- A High Wind Warning has been issued for the Bordeaux wind prone zone from midnight tonight through 2PM Saturday afternoon. A High Wind Watch has been issued for the Arlington/Elk Mountain wind prone zone from 11PM tonight through 8AM Saturday morning.

- A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the Nebraska Panhandle, Laramie county, and portions of Goshen county from 11AM Saturday through 5PM Saturday afternoon. Very dry conditions and gusty winds will combine to produce critical fire weather conditions in this area.

- Model agreement is very poor for Monday onwards, but long range models are suggesting a potential pattern change next week. The exact timing of this pattern change is low confidence right now.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 332 AM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

A 700mb shortwave will dig through the northern portion of Wyoming and into the Northern Plains. A 700mb jet develops in the early morning and continues through midday before decreasing in strength. Peak intensity looks to be around 60knots at 15z with peak subsident flow along the I-25 corridor. This shortwave will be responsible for the High winds in the wind prones and gusty conditions for areas east of I-25. Wind gusts up to 60 mph will be possible in our wind prones and wind gusts between 35 to 45 mph for areas east of I-25. The shortwave does dive southeast into the Northern Plains rather quickly so Arlington was left in a high wind watch as the stronger subsident flow over the I-80 area didn't line up with the peak intensity of the jet. The jet will have already decreased to 45/50 knots over Arlington by the time the subsident flow really sets in. However, our in-house high wind algorithm still paints a 60 percent chance for high winds over Arlington and Bordeaux this morning. Confidence is just higher for Bordeaux than Arlington at this time. Due to the downsloping winds conditions will be rather dry and rather breezy this afternoon. RH values will be in the teens and 20's east of I-25 with the driest conditions along our southern counties in our forecast area. The Red Flag warning was expanded across Laramie county and portions of Goshen county in Southeast Wyoming. For the Nebraska Panhandle the Red Flag Warning was expanded all the way the north to the South Dakota border for RH values between 15 to 20 percent. SPC has also issued an Elevated fire weather outlook for the majority of the area east of I-25 and a critical fire weather outlook for Laramie county and the southern half of the Nebraska Panhandle adding confidence in the expansion of the Red Flag Warning. The High winds are expected to be roughly diurnal in nature as the 700mb jet weakens as the day progresses due to the shortwave quickly pushing east. Winds will slowly die down in response in the afternoon and evening. Winds will be breezy Sunday as the 700mb jet is due west between 40 to 45kts. Despite the dry conditions persisting through Monday evening, there is some uncertainty as whether the winds will meet the magical 35 mph requirement in the afternoon Sunday. So for now the Red flag warning will end Saturday evening and the next crew can decide on whether to extend the Red Flag warning into Sunday or through Monday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 332 AM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

Next week looks to be a slight pattern change as our ridge breaks down as the low pressure system amplifying our ridge rejoins the flow and moves across Mexico. This eastern push opens up to the region to subsequent shortwaves of varying strengths next week. Cluster analysis overall shows the ridge slowly breaking down by Tuesday but some of the ensemble members from each global model continue to disagree and show the ridge slowing breaking down through Thursday. The speed and degree to which the ridge breaks down will effect the timing of these shortwaves and far the dig into the Intermountain West. An upper level trough is expected to push through the middle through the end of the work week. Cluster analysis shows some clusters have the system digging further south than others which leads to greater widespread precipitation chances east of I-25. However, if the ridge takes longer to break down as the other clusters show then those precipitation chances landing more north with the possibility of only our Northern counties getting any precipitation.

Monday, An upper level trough pushes across the Canadian/US Border. This pushes a shortwave through the Intermountain west. The subsequent 700mb pressure gradient starts to tightens and rejuvenates our 700mb jet from the weekend. However, there is better confidence in High Winds than the event on Saturday. The 700mb jet increases in intensity as the strength reaches between 65 to 70kts with stronger subsident flow in the afternoon. Mid level This would result in potential wind gusts exceeding 60mph in our wind prones. Another High Wind warning looks to be likely with this latest run for Monday but we have some time before needing to issue high wind products and see how the models trend. With this shortwave there is some moisture attached to the shortwave however, the boundary layer is drier than the Sahara desert east of I-25 with our downsloping high winds east of I-25. In the mountains/ higher elevations between Rawlins and Laramie the moisture seems to be better received as the models soundings show a more saturated boundary layer and a higher potential to see precipitation chances Monday evening through Tuesday morning. Depending on how much the ridge breaks down the stronger upper level system looks to impact the Intermountain West Tuesday into Wednesday. NAEFS shows Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) in the 90th percentile Tuesday allowing for sufficient moisture to be utilized by the system, leading to much needed greater precipitation amounts. However, if the ridge doesn't break down the mositure and system will shift further north leaving us drier than what the models are currently showing. Then another shortwave looks to impact us again towards the end of the work week for some light precipitation chances.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 439 AM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

Gusty winds are expected as a 700mb jet starts to strengthen across the forecast area. Some low level windshear may be encountered around 2,000ft between 40-45 knots with these strong westerly winds today. Winds are expected to die down overnight as the jet weakens. Otherwise some high based clouds are expected to move over the terminals for VFR conditions through the TAF period.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ430-431-433. High Wind Warning until 2 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ106. High Wind Watch until 8 AM MST this morning for WYZ110. NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon for NEZ434>437.