textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- A backdoor cold front will bring cloud cover, colder temperatures, and some light snow to the high plains on Friday. Minimal accumulations expected.

- Locally strong gusty winds possible over the wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming late Friday night and Saturday morning. Gusts over 50 MPH are expected.

- Mostly quiet weather expected next week, with a cold front pushing through Tuesday and dropping temperatures back into the 40s and 50s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 215 AM MST Fri Jan 30 2026

Current surface observations across western Nebraska show the leading edge of the backdoor arctic front moving into the far northern panhandle as Chadron shows a wind shift into the north and northeast with low stratus clouds in the area. As usual, this front is a few hours ahead of schedule and is expected to push across the rest of the western Nebraska panhandle over the next 12 hours through noon Friday. With low clouds already around 500 feet AGL, decided to add some fog to the forecast for the northern and central panhandle this morning until noon today. With surface heating and some low level mixing ahead of the front, kept fog out of the afternoon forecast until late this evening where Laramie County and the southern Laramie Range foothills could see some additional low clouds and fog as the front sneaks into the I-25 corridor briefly. Otherwise, current KCYS radar loop shows some returns aloft (6000 to 9000 feet agl) across far eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska, but nothing is hitting the ground at this time and it's likely virga. Believe this will change once the front slides southwest, with light snow developing this morning east I-25. Kept POP around 20 to 40 percent even though models have backed off a bit on precip coverage and QPF, so kept snow accumulations less than one half inch. High temperatures look good today with highs struggling to reach the upper 20s to near 30 across western Nebraska. Near normal temperatures still expected for the I-25 corridor and areas to the west.

For tonight, expect the front to push into the I-25 corridor briefly. Models are now showing a slightly deeper airmass compared to yesterday, around ~3000 feet, so expect this arctic air to make it as far west as the Laramie Range foothills. This should be brief as the upper level trough responsible for this front will quickly eject southeast of the forecast area. A few snow flurries are possible along the I-25 corridor, but no accumulations are expected at this time.

Attention then turns to the potential for winds early Saturday morning as the arctic front retreats and large pressure falls occur across the high plains. This pattern tends to be favorable for strong gap winds across the wind prone areas due to the increasing low level pressure gradient. However, most parameters are pretty marginal so far with 700mb winds around 40 to briefly around 50 knots, ample but brief low level subsidence near the wind prone areas, but a decent surface pressure gradient. In- house wind guidance has continued to fluctuate and remains around 50 to 60 percent for wind probabilities over 58 MPH. Kept wind gusts around 50 knots for the Arlington/Elk Mountain and I-80 Summit area...which may include the southern Laramie Range foothills. Confidence just isn't quite high enough to issue a High Wind Watch at this time, but will continue to monitor over the next 12 to 24 hours. Otherwise, mild temperatures expected on Saturday as the arctic airmass retreats far to the east...with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Not as cold Saturday night with lows generally in the 20s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 135 AM MST Fri Jan 30 2026

Fairly quiet week expected next week as an upper-level ridge remains parked overhead. 700mb temperatures will remain just slightly above average for this time of year, leading to daytime high temperatures in the 40s and 50s Sunday and Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday will feature cooler temperatures behind a cold front that is expected to pass through the region Tuesday morning. Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 30s and 40s everywhere. The cold front Tuesday morning looks to be mostly dry, with only the mountains likely seeing precipitation from the frontal passage. Precipitation accumulation is not expected to be much, due to the dry nature of this system. Temperatures rebound back into the 40s and 50s Thursday and Friday.

On Friday, long range models currently suggest a strong 700mb low diving southeast out of Canada and entering the CONUS around the Great Lakes region. Current model runs have a very strong 700mb jet associated with this low, maxing out around 75 to 80kts across central Nebraska and maxing out around 60 to 65kts in the Nebraska Panhandle. While this event is still over a week out, if model trends hold true, very strong winds look likely Friday behind another cold front pushing through and strong surface pressure gradients due to the surface low pressure system currently progged to be over the Midwest, with impacts as far west as the Rocky Mountains. Did not increase winds at this time, due to this system being a week out and confidence rather low, at this time, in the system keeping this track. If the low moves farther east, then strong winds will be less likely. If it moves farther west, stronger winds will be more likely. All in all, something to pay attention to over the next several, rather quiet days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 450 AM MST Fri Jan 30 2026

Backdoor arctic cold front will gradually move southwest across the high plains today and into the Interstate 25 corridor by this evening. Cloudy skies are expected with periods of flurries or light snow for most terminals.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will continue at KLAR and KRWL over the next 24 hours as the surface arctic front remains east of the KLAR through the day. KCDR has observed LIFR CIGS for the last few hours, and expected this to continue until at least 21z, possibly later. IFR conditions expected at KAIA between now and 18z as the front progresses southwest over the area. Lower confidence forecast for KSNY, KBFF, and KCYS...which will probably see periods of MVFR CIGS and VIS today through early this evening. However, can't rule out IFR or lower conditions at these terminals...but confidence remains low...between 10 to 30 percent. Kept PROB30 groups for snow due to limited coverage and timing uncertainty.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...None. NE...None.