textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Mountain snowfall will continue through Thursday morning with light snow spilling into the I-80 corridor between Cheyenne and Rawlins.

- Wind gusts up to 65 mph will continue into the evening hours for the Bordeaux area along I-25.

- While temperatures will remain above seasonal averages for much of the week ahead, there will be occasional chances for light precipitation.

- High winds are possible Tuesday in our wind prones across southeast Wyoming.

UPDATE

Issued at 400 PM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

Winds are now gusting to around 65 mph at Bordeaux along I-25. 800 to 700-mb winds are expected to remain fairly steady or strengthen slightly between now and 8PM, so decided to issue a High Wind Warning. This will run through about 11PM to provide a short buffer on the tail end.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 310 PM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

Moisture has finally returned to the area after a lengthy dry spell. An elongated closed upper level low continues to spin over the California coast ahead of a moisture laden jet stream visible on GOES water vapor imagery across the southwest US and into our area. Moist orographic lift has returned decent snowfall to the mountains today with decent snowfall rates observed over the last several hours. SNOTEL sites in the Sierra Madre range have picked up between 3 and 7 inches of snow generally (with a few locally higher amounts), while the Snowy Range is slightly behind, at around 1 to 4 inches so far. Webcams indicate that snow is spilling into the lower elevations of Carbon county, but with fairly minimal impacts so far due to the mild temperatures. Temperatures are above freezing below about 7500 ft in elevation. East of the Laramie Range, we have some radar echoes showing up, but the dry boundary layer is preventing any of this from reaching the ground. RH is generally between 25 and 40% over the High Plains at this time.

A vort-max is moving across the area this afternoon, and we can expect to see some modest drying in the middle atmosphere in the next few hours, which should decrease snowfall rates in the mountains or potentially bring a lull in snowfall entirely. The vort- max moving overhead today is also helping to temporarily boost the pressure/height gradients across the area and thus kick up the wind speeds. 700-mb winds around 40 to 45 knots are expected to continue through the evening today over portions of southeast Wyoming. However, most wind parameters are weaker than what we would like to see for High Winds. No wind headlines have been issued, but we will need to monitor the typical wind prone areas through the evening for gusts mostly 40 to 55 mph. There is about a 20-30% chance for gusts exceeding 60 mph this evening. Another push of mid-level moisture should pick up snowfall rates again in the mountains late this evening, which will last into Thursday morning. The southern Wyoming mountains will be on the far northern edge of this next moisture plume, so additional totals in the second phase should be less than the first phase.

The mid-level frontal boundary will remain stalled over the area with decent mid level moisture continuing to push through during the day Thursday. A few weak shortwave troughs traversing across the stalled boundary will help to kick up weak isentropic lift over the High Plains, which should allow for light precipitation to spread east of I-25. There is some uncertainty regarding how far north this lift will extend, but for now, the mention of precipitation is extended up to about the North Platte River Valley. The highest probabilities are a little further south. Models also show a little bit of convective instability present across the area Thursday with steep lapse rates in place. Precipitation may take on more of a showery nature. Temperatures will be mild once again, which will mean both rain and snow will be in play. Snow levels will generally be around 6000 to 7000 feet. Expect mostly snow above 7000 ft, mostly rain below 5500 feet, and a mix of rain and snow in between. Areas seeing snow could see brief, locally heavy rates due to the instability, dropping visibility and perhaps leading to some slick conditions, but this will be quite transient. Unfortunately, wetting rainfall probabilities are quite low, generally under 20% for all areas outside of the mountains. We may see isolated rainfall amounts of 0.1" or snowfall around one inch, but the coverage of this will be limited at best. Forcing for lift will weaken Thursday evening, and shower coverage will decrease after that.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 310 PM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

At the start of the long term period, a weak upper-level trough will slide across the CWA, keeping chances of precipitation in the forecast through Friday night. As we progress in the long term, this trough and associated precipitation will move out of the CWA by Saturday morning as ridging nudges back in, dominating weather conditions through Monday morning. Some changes are in store by Tuesday as troughing begins to push back into the CWA, increasing precipitation chances, mainly across our western forecast zones, and winds in our known wind prones in southeast Wyoming. In the meantime, the risk of high winds remains low Friday through Monday with meager mid-level support. The same can't be said for Tuesday as a stout 700mb jet, nearing 70 knots, sets up across the CWA along with negative Omega (GFS) that will mix these winds down to the surface. So, what does this mean with surface winds? Well, in-house guidance suggests a high wind event with widespread probs in the 40 to 60 percent range across our wind prones in southeast Wyoming with a few locations topping out near 80%. This is in agreement with ensemble guidance having a 70% chance of gusts greater than 50 mph with some members suggesting a 50% chance of gusts greater than 60 mph. With the current forecast, this is not reflected in it as it is based off of the lower end of guidance. This will be monitored and over the next few days will be adjusted to reflect the latest probabilistic guidance suggesting a high wind event on Tuesday. Then by Wednesday, at the tail end of the forecast period, you'll be thinking what winds as they will be a memory with the upper-level support pushing off to the east.

The other thing of concern in the extended, as we dry out over the weekend and the uptick in winds by early next week, is the increasing threat of fire weather conditions across portions of the CWA, especially from Cheyenne and points east. A limiting factor could be any precipitation that may have fallen the preceding days, but with min RH values forecast to drop below 20% along with dry fuels and gusty winds, fire weather concerns rapidly increase Sunday into Tuesday of next week. So, there may be the need for another long duration Red Flag Warning in this time frame, stay tuned to the forecast for future updates.

Lets shift our attention to temperatures in the extended and what we can expect. Aloft, we will see 700mb temps climbing to around -2 degrees C Friday/Saturday and a bit warmer Sunday/Monday, soaring to around +4 degrees C. So, closer to reality, surface highs Friday/Saturday will top out in the mid 40s west of I-25 and low to upper 50s east of the corridor. A tad warmer Sunday/Monday as highs top out near 50 degrees over the higher terrain west of I-25 and in the 60s elswhere. While lows dip into the 20s to near 30 through the long term period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1041 PM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

A mix of conditions expected over the next 24 hours thanks to periods of passing showers including both rain and snow. Any showers that do impact sites will have the potential to lower CIGs and VIS, and could create MVFR to IFR conditions. Cannot rule out the potential for LIFR, but it's less likely as precipitation should be on the light side. Winds lessening overnight, though KCYS may see some low level wind shear overnight. Winds expected to be weaker tomorrow, with most Nebraska sites variable and light.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for WYZ106. Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST Thursday for WYZ112-114. NE...None.