textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures and dry conditions are expected to continue through the end of the week.

- Chances of precipitation increase over the weekend for the mountains, but remain low for the plains.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 205 AM MST Thu Nov 12 2026

Short Range models remain in good agreement showing benign weather continuing through late Friday across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska. Clear skies early this morning will continue through Thursday afternoon with some high cloudiness at times. Otherwise, light west to northwest winds are expected with light and variable winds across most of western Nebraska.

Models show the upper level ridge axis, currently over the four corners region, moving overhead late tonight and early Friday. The only minor concern will be the potential for fog across far eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska early Friday morning as surface winds shift into the south and southeast with decent return flow off the Great Plains. Not totally confident due to the relatively weak surface flow, but enough confidence to justify patchy fog wording across portions of the western Nebraska Panhandle and east central Wyoming. Afternoon temperatures will remain above average today and Friday with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

For Saturday, all models in good agreement showing the next Pacific storm system moving across the Great Basin Region Friday night and into the Front Range on Saturday. With a dominate southern branch of the upper level jet, expect this system to split and likely remain south of us into Saturday night. Some precipitation can't be ruled out for the I-80 corridor, but chances are pretty low with maybe a few inches of snow for the Sierra Madre and Snowy Ranges. Temperatures will begin to lower on Saturday with a cooler airmass working its way into the region. High temperatures in the upper 40s to mid 50s expected due to cloud cover and upslope south to southeast winds.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1146 AM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

This weekend will mark a transition period as a slightly more progressive pattern takes place after another week of anomalously warm and dry conditions. Saturday will start off much cooler than the previous day, as a cold front is expected to push across SE Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle during the morning hours. Not only will this result in forecast highs anywhere from 10-15 degrees cooler from the previous day, but northerly winds will increase as an inverted ridge sets up east of the Continental Divide. The increasing gradient flow as a result of a potent 1030 mb + anticyclone located over the Canadian Prairies will drive strong cold advection behind the front throughout the day, although no widespread precipitation is expected due to the main large-scale forcing being well to our south. While we certainly can't rule out some light snowfall especially within the Snowy and Sierra Madre Mountains, 50th percentile ECMWF ensemble QPF for SE Wyoming is currently sitting below 0.05" and has trended downward over the last couple of runs. This seems reasonable given that the primary shortwave trough and associated DCVA will be focused more over Southern Colorado.

GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF ensemble guidance are all in fairly good agreement that our region will be located in a region of upper-level diffluence on Sunday, downstream of an amplified trough located off the West Coast. This will place SE Wyoming and W Nebraska in a SW flow regime, with current LREF guidance suggesting PWAT values will situate as high as the 85th-95th percentile (0.4-0.5") relative to climatology. While this sounds great for us in desperate need of beneficial precipitation, mid and upper-level height rises associated with a building shortwave ridge, plus the lack of any forcing mechanism unfortunately point to mostly dry conditions. This is similar to much of what we have seen this fall given an active monsoonal pattern, yet we haven't been able to translate much of this moisture down to the surface as precipitation. Temperatures look to be at or slightly above average for this time of year, mainly in the low to mid 50s east of the Laramie Range, with slightly cooler to the west.

What once looked slightly more active and exciting has now started to look, well...dry and boring, as we move into the beginning of next week. The downstream ridge remains quasi-stationary over the Great Plains, whereas the upstream troughing begins to dig south and east towards Southern California. This will continue to SW surge of monsoonal moisture, which will unfortunately be confined primarily to the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. As a result, SE Wyoming and W Nebraska will remain mostly dry and seasonably mild, with high temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday 5 to 10 degrees above average for this time of year.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 941 PM MST Wed Nov 11 2026

A ridge will be passing through the next 24 hours which should keep things in VFR. Winds are calm and variable currently. This wind pattern will last until after daybreak. A wind shift out of the north or northwest at Wyoming terminals and out of the northeast at the Nebraska Panhandle terminals is anticipated later. Thursday night a weak return flow in the Nebraska Panhandle should increase near surface humidity and may promote some low CIGs at the very end of the forecast period. Fog and MVFR or lower conditions are possible going through Friday morning.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...None. NE...None.