textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Winds will increase tonight in the wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming, elevated to high winds possible.

- Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening will have the potential to produce small hail and gusty and erratic winds.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 315 PM MDT Wed May 6 2026

The rest of Wednesday will be on the quiet side with abundant sunshine across most of the area and chillier than normal temperatures behind yesterday's storm system. The strong May sun has allowed for fairly decent melting of the snowpack that is in place. Some melting could continue overnight as winds increase and become more westerly. Downsloping winds could continue to eat away at the snowpack if winds can keep temperature above freezing overnight. Overnight lows tonight are tricky as it will generally be clear where there is snowpack, allowing for temperatures to fall below typical guidance under normal circumstances. However, given the surface high developing over the Colorado Rockies overnight, a strong MSLP gradient will evolve west of the Laramie Range. This will cause the winds to ramp up, leading to the aforementioned downslope. Downsloping winds could keep temperatures on the "mild" side above freezing. Due to the uncertainty, just went with the NBM for low temperatures tonight. Focusing back on the winds, cannot rule out the chance for brief high winds in the wind prones late tonight into Thursday morning. This is solely a gradient driven event with no upper-level support. The strong MSLP gradient and strong 850 mb CAG to CPR height gradients could lead to 60 MPH gusts, mainly between 12 AM and 6 AM Thursday. For now, decided to hold off on any products due to lack of confidence.

Heading into Thursday, temperatures will quickly rebound back to around seasonable with highs mainly in the 60s across most of the area. A deep upper-level ridge will begin to push onto the west coast, ushering in the warmer temperatures aloft. However, the CWA will still be on the backside of the trough over the Great Lakes. A weak disturbance will move through the back of the trough, prompting a round of showers and thunderstorms during the day. Showers could move into the forecast area from the northwest as early as sunrise, becoming more numerous throughout the day. Instability will be decent by the afternoon with about 300 to 500 J/kg of MUCAPE. Thunderstorms are likely, with small hail possible. Cannot rule out a few severe wind gusts within storms as well. Scattered showers and storms will continue into the overnight hours, but will eventually dissipate as the disturbance moves out of the area.

Quieter weather is expected on Friday as the CWA sits between storm systems. Temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees warmer than Thursday with a bit more sunshine expected. Precipitation chances during the day will be minimal.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 315 PM MDT Wed May 6 2026

Warm days are ahead as high pressure ridging looks to take over for the majority of the long term forecast period, though we do start unsettled and near average before the heat takes hold. Friday evening should be mostly uneventful under a transient ridge with near seasonable low temperatures. Moving into Saturday however, a quick moving shortwave should bring a shot at showers and thunderstorms alongside gusty winds thanks to the enhanced pressure gradient. While the best precipitation chances will be for our northern zones, many of these locations didn't receive our recent snowfall and therefore the precipitation will be beneficial for them. In house guidance is highlighting the potential for wind highlights as probabilities are nearing 40% for the Arlington area, and 700mb winds around 50 knots are present. If nothing else, we should see a few storms and some locally gusty winds, but no strong agreement that more significant conditions are expected.

Thereafter, the main story will be strong ridging that will overtake the majority of the Western US. We'll see mostly dry conditions and a steady warming trend, with temperatures around 15 to 20 degrees above normal by early next week and continuing into the middle of the week, with parts of the NE Panhandle even flirting with 90 degrees. While ensembles do show this feature beginning to flatten out moving into the middle of next week, the strongest winds and pressure gradients would still lie to our north and east, keeping us under warm westerly flow with only weak upslope flow possibly promoting any new precipitation, but even this would be unlikely with how dry the lower levels will be. Most likely outcome currently would be isolated virga which could bring locally breezy winds, but otherwise if you didn't enjoy our brief return to winter this week, warm and dry weather are incoming by next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1133 AM MDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Clouds are clearing out, and we should see either high clouds or clear skies through the overnight period, with a chance of some mid level clouds returning by the end of the TAF period tomorrow. Winds expected to remain on the light side through the nighttime hours, generally 10 knots or less, but breezy westerly conditions will return tomorrow with speeds 15-30 knots possible.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...None. NE...None.