textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- A Winter Storm Warning and multiple Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect through tonight. 2 to 5 inches of snow possible in the Advisory areas with locally higher amounts possible under banded precipitation.

- Confidence is low to medium elsewhere due to uncertainty in the potential for banded snowfall during the day on Friday.

- A High Wind Watch has been issue from 11 AM Saturday through 11 AM Monday for the typical wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming. Gusts up to 60mph will be possible.

- Warmer and drier conditions will return Saturday onward with several periods of high winds expected Sunday into much of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 241 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

Snow is ongoing across many locations early this morning. As of 12 AM, Cheyenne has received 0.2 inches of snow, with snow continuing over the next several hours. Current Mid-Level Water Vapor Satellite shows moisture streaming into the region with the low moving south across eastern Utah as of 2 AM this morning. This low will begin to push eastward as the upper-level trough slowly drags eastward. The building upper-level ridge over the Pacific Ocean just off the coast of California is visible on WV satellite tonight and is expected to amplify and lean towards the northeast due to strong anticyclonic vorticity advection on the backside of the upper-level trough. This results in the upper-level trough becoming positively tilted late this morning and into the afternoon hours. As the ridge continues to strengthen and the upper-level trough tilts positively, the base of the trough looks to become pinched off to the southwest of the Four Corners Region, leading to a closed low circling over northwestern portions of Mexico and far southern California. Back to the CWA, the upper-level flow becomes northerly late today into the overnight hours, leading to an end in precipitation. However, before this occurs, the 700mb looks to develop over the east central Colorado by the late morning and advect northeastward across eastern Colorado into central Nebraska. This low will later be picked up by the northern branch of the now separate upper-level trough, leading to a quick northeastward ejections starting in the early afternoon hours today. The surface low will be positioned much further south and east than typically preferred for snowfall across the CWA, however, with the upper-level trough stalling as it pinches off the southern half, the region will remain just downstream of the 700mb jet where constant synoptic ascent is expected. As the associated cold front pushes through the region, it will prolong the synoptic ascent across the region leading to precipitation not ending until late tonight despite the 700mb trough being off to the east. The 700mb trough will advect in colder air throughout the morning, with a reinforcing shot of cold air following the cold front passage. 700mb temperatures are expected to remain in the -10 to -8C range all day, so all precipitation today should be snow, especially across southeast Wyoming.

Close attention is currently being paid to where a band of very strong frontogenesis develops this morning. Current model runs suggest this strong frontogenesis band develop from about the Vedauwoo northeast through the Dawes County in the northern Panhandle. This band is expected to move eastward with the departing 700mb low and incoming cold front, resulting in an eastward shift in the best ascent throughout the morning hours. Current radar data is mostly in line with the current model placement of the strong frontogenesis band. Snow is ongoing from about Vedauwoo northeastward through at least Goshen County, with the heaviest band currently running along I-25 from Cheyenne to Wheatland. Snow rates are looking quite good as of 230AM this morning in Cheyenne,potentially around 2 inches an hour, with the heavy snow. At this time, radar seems to be showing the heavy band starting to stall a bit across the I-25 corridor, though it is not obvious enough at this time to say yes it is stalling. This band is may stall a bit due to the upper-level flow becoming disturbed before the northern portion of the trough detaches from the southern portion. Even if this band does not stall, 08Z HRRR data suggests that the snow will continue to fill in along and east of the Laramie Range as more snow moves off the Colorado Rockies into southeast Wyoming. The largest uncertainty at this time is whether or not another band of heavy snow will set up across the Panhandle and if it does, where exactly it will set up. Did increase snow totals slightly across the Nebraska Panhandle, but still have below advisory criteria, especially since confidence remains lower on banding. Did not change any of the Winter Headlines with this forecast package. Will continue to monitor for a significant band of snow setting up across the Panhandle, which could significantly increase snow totals.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 241 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

A High Wind Watch has been issued for the wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming from 18Z Saturday through 18Z Monday. Other than this, the previous discussion remains valid. Please see previous discussion below...

Saturday evening we start to transition from a northwesterly to a truly zonal flow over the Intermountain west. This is in part due to the low pressure system migrating through the US southwest/northern Mexico region of North America at the same time an upper level wave pushes through the Canadian Providences. This forces the jetstream to accelerate over the Rocky mountains as the pressure gradient compresses resulting in high winds for our wind prones areas Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Omega values start to max out Monday morning with strong subsident flow presenting stronger certainty in high winds for Monday as opposed to the juggling between the strong to maxed out subsident flow values for Sunday as the 700mb jet slowly intensifies. The 12z run of the global models has the 700mb jet slowly gaining intensity throughout the day Sunday reaching speeds between 50 to 60 knots by Sunday afternoon to the early evening time frame. By Monday the system moving across the Canadian Providences takes a little more southern route tightening the gradient even more around Monday evening. The 700mb jet model response to this deviation is sporadic blips of intensity between 65 and 70 knots while in westerly flow. Given the Mountain wave like set up depicted in the omega fields of the global models. It would surprise me to see gusts up to 80 mph in the wind prones during the periods of 65+ knot intensities. To further confirm my forecast of high winds, our in house algorithm gives probabilities between 60 to 80 percent for high winds at Arlington starting Saturday evening through Monday afternoon with the high probabilities starting Sunday evening for Bordeaux. The models keep us in straight westerly flow with intermittent intensities between 55 and 60 knots for the remainder of the work week. It will be something to keep track of, but we could see possible elevated to high winds throughout the work week as well if these models trends continue.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1049 AM MST Fri Mar 6 2026

Intermittent snow showers are expected through the afternoon and tapering off by the evening as the showers move east-northeast coming from Colorado. IFR conditions will gradually improve to MVFR this afternoon before eventually clearing out overnight. With gusty winds expect some visibility reductions due to blowing snow. Winds are going to pick up tomorrow as the 700mb jet strengthens especially towards Saturday afternoon around 18z. Expect low level windshear concerns tomorrow night as well.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for WYZ104- 106-109-110-113-115-117-118. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight MST tonight for WYZ103- 112-114. High Wind Watch from Saturday morning through Monday morning for WYZ106-110-116-117. Winter Storm Warning until midnight MST tonight for WYZ116. NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MST this evening for NEZ002- 095.