textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- A widespread, locally damaging wind event is still on track for Thursday with gusts of 60 to 80 mph expected, with the potential for localized gusts up to 100 mph in the wind prone areas across southeast Wyoming.

- Very strong winds will continue through at least Saturday ahead of the next chance for precipitation Saturday into Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 242 PM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Today will mark the last day in the short term period, 'calm before the winds', prior to the winds strengthening later this evening as a 70-80 knot 700mb jet slides in and takes a firm hold across the region, marking the beginning of a prolonged high wind event across southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle, more on that in a bit. But first, enjoy the relatively benign weather across the CWA for most of the daytime hours today under plentiful sunshine, dry and breezy conditions, and cooler temperatures compared previous days with highs only topping out in the 30s and 40s. Temperatures will warm Thursday through Friday into Saturday with highs climbing into the lower to upper 60s east of I-25 and 50s to the west.

Now, onto the main event for this forecast period as Thursday will mark the start of a prolonged high wind event across the region. The 700mb jet mentioned previously will continue to strengthen during the morning hours and by the afternoon, 700mb winds will top out near 90 knots. This coupled with ample subsidence, negative Omega (GFS), will mix these stronger winds aloft to the surface and make for the strongest winds during this event. A few locations across our known wind prones in southeast Wyoming may see gusts topping out near 100 mph, especially in the windier sections along I-25 and I- 80. This mid/upper level support will contribute to the high winds, but in addition, there will be an impressive gradient and 850mb and 700mb that will also aid in the intensity. Some of our in-house guidance that we look at is the Craig (CAG) to Casper (CPR) height gradient, both at 850mb and 700mb, which continue to max out just over 100 meters starting Thursday morning and continuing into the early afternoon hours. These values are very impressive and are some of the highest we've seen in some time, which increases confidence that by Thursday afternoon we will see some of the strongest winds for this event. All this that already that has been mentioned combined with a textbook mountain wave signature, confirms that the stronger upper level winds should easily make it down to the surface. So, taking a look at some other in-house guidance, Arlington and Bordeaux have around a 90/95% probability of seeing high winds by Thursday afternoon.

Locations outside of the known wind prones will not be immune to this wind event as all the ingredients are in place. So, gusts to 80 mph are not out of the realm of possibility across the remaining portions of southeast Wyoming and gusts to 70 mph for many locations in the Nebraska Panhandle through Thursday afternoon. A cold front will dive south Thursday evening, turning the winds northerly for far eastern portions of Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle, all but shutting off the high winds in these locations. Winds will not totally shutdown in these locations and remain gusty as the 700mb jet persists over the CWA. However, many locations along I-25 and to the west will not escape the high winds as they will continue, albeit slightly weaker then Thursday afternoon, into the weekend due to a persistent 70 knot 700mb jet and ample subsidence. The 'wind switch' will finally turn off late Saturday as an upper level shortwave and associated surface cold front drops south across the CWA. So, all the High Wind Watches that were out during the previous shift have been upgraded to High Wind Warnings, starting/ending at differing times and differing in lengths.

With all this wind talk out of the way, there is one other major thing of concern, fire weather. As we've been dry for most of the year, fuels have been ripe, even with the precipitation that we recently seen which isn't enough to limit those fire weather concerns. So, with strong winds, low humidity, and ripe fuels, any spark may develop a fire that spreads rapidly. So we have Red Flag Warnings in place across all our fire weather zones in the Nebraska Panhandle from 11am to 9pm Thursday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 242 PM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

The long term starts off active as a system drops through the region and clears out the strong winds we've been seeing, but also brings cold temperatures alongside chances of precipitation. Thereafter high pressure ridging comes right back in, bringing temperatures up from below average right back to well above average with winds on the rise and critical fire weather conditions possible as well.

As mentioned, Saturday night into Sunday we'll see a stout trough and very strong cold front dive across the region. With QPF totals on the rise from previous runs, it's becoming likely we'll see area wide precipitation that will start off as rain or a mix of rain and snow outside of the mountains before transitioning fully to snow by early Sunday morning and continuing into the day. And with widespread highs in the 30's across the area from the surge of cold air, it's more likely than not that this will remain snowfall through moving out of the region by the early afternoon and into the evening Sunday night. But don't expect the cold to stick around for long, as high pressure will be right back to warm us up with highs already into the 40's and 50's by Monday, and widespread 60's and 70's expected by Tuesday under a very strong and slow moving Western US high. In fact, temperatures are expected to flirt with record highs across the area just beyond the long term next Wednesday, so prepare for more record setting warmth in the future. Meanwhile, we should continue to see the usual breezy winds for the region, with in-house guidance picking up on chances for High Wind Warning (58+ mph) level criteria for the usual wind prone locations (Bordeaux, Arlington), with probabilities up to 60-75% already for Tuesday. But alongside the warmth and winds comes Red Flag concerns, and RH values will be approaching the teens by Tuesday, with even lower values just beyond the long term. Look for winds and a critical fire weather environment to be our main concerns by the end of the forecast period, so the usual for this winter and early spring.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1111 AM MDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Minimal aviation concerns today, with VFR conditions prevailing across all terminals. Wind gusts of over 30 kts will be possible in southeast Wyoming and west Nebraska. Sustained winds generally at 10 to 15 kts out of the west-southwest except for at Rawlins where sustained winds of 25 kts are possible. Winds drop off in the evening, however a near surface inversion will impart wind shear at all terminals starting around 06-09Z. Some low-level shear vectors of 50-65 kts out of the west are possible. At the end of the forecast period surface winds greatly increase at all terminals.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to midnight MDT Saturday night for WYZ101-103>107-109-113-115>118. High Wind Warning from 6 AM Thursday to midnight MDT Thursday night for WYZ102-108-119. High Wind Warning from 6 PM this evening to midnight MDT Saturday night for WYZ110. NE...High Wind Warning from 9 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NEZ002- 003-019>021-054-055-095-096. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NEZ434>437.