textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler, wetter weather continues today, with 1 to 3 inches of snow possible for the lower elevations.

- A gorgeous weekend is in store as temperatures rebound into the 50s and 60s with clearing skies and minimal precipitation chances.

- Warmer, drier weather returns for the week ahead, with fire concerns increasing Sunday onwards.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 218 AM MDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and slowly advancing across the region tonight, with the main concentration from about southern Goshen County northeastward into Sioux County. Very low clouds are ongoing across much of western Nebraska given the more moist conditions. The cold front has already moved out of the area into eastern Colorado and western Kansas, but gusty winds remain in its wake. The upper- level trough will continue its slow progression to the east, while strengthening throughout the afternoon hours today. Impressive 500mb cyclonic vorticity advection will help the 500mb low propagate northeastward faster than the upper-level trough, while the impressive anticyclonic vorticity on the back end acts to strengthen the ridge trying to develop across the western CONUS. The 700mb low on the other hand will continue to strengthen this morning into the early afternoon hours leading to increasing height gradients and, therefore, increasing jet speeds at 700mb. The 700mb jet looks to strengthen to 60+kts between 12 and 15Z this morning, with the downward omega values progged to be at their highest strength around the same time. As a result, the High Wind Warning will remain in effect for southeast Wyoming. The 700mb low is expected to go through another deepening phase late tonight into early tomorrow morning, leading to a 50 to 55kt jet developing over western Nebraska. With downward omega values suggesting decent downward motion, there is increasing concerns for these higher winds to mix down to the surface resulting in high winds across the southern Nebraska Panhandle. To capture this threat, High Wind Warnings have been issued for eastern Laramie County in Wyoming, and the southern half of the Nebraska Panhandle from 9 AM this morning through 9 PM this evening, capturing the deepening of the low. Gusts up to 60 mph will be possible for these zones, while higher gusts are expected for southeast Wyoming, especially the I-80 Summit and Foothills that could gust over 80mph.

As far as precipitation in concerned for today, isolated to scattered snow showers are expected to develop across much of southeast Wyoming, with rain and rain/snow mixes expected across western Nebraska. Probability of precipitation is lowest along the I- 80 corridor, due to drier, westerly winds setting up throughout the day with the positioning of the surface and 700mb low. The remainder of the CWA will be within the northwest quadrant of the surface low, favoring cooler temperatures and ongoing precipitation chances. Total accumulations for most of the area will be between about 1 to 3 inches, with peaks a ridge-lines likely seeing slightly higher accumulations. The mountains will continue to see favorable upslope flow, leading to ongoing mountain snow chances and a continuation of the Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories. Additional snowfall accumulation for the Sierra Madre and Snowy Ranges is expected to be around 6 to 10 inches, with the highest peaks likely seeing upwards of 12 additional inches of snow throughout the day.

Drier, northwest flow returns to the region for Saturday, signaling the end to the precipitation chances and warmer temperatures. An upper-level ridge just off the western coast will slowly move easterly on the heels of the departing trough. Broad subsidence will develop across the region with the approaching trough, leading to drier and warmer conditions. Temperatures on Saturday will rebound into the low-50s to low-60s, after a cooler day on Friday with highs in the mid-30s to mid-40s. Clearing skies will also accompany the increasing subsidence, allowing a gorgeous weekend to set in. However, with warmer and drier conditions, fire concerns will start to creep up Saturday into Sunday and especially into the first half of the upcoming work week. Winds will also quickly calm down Friday night as the 700mb low moves out of the area. Therefore, surface winds will be fairly calm this weekend, further supporting a gorgeous weekend across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 218 AM MDT Fri Apr 3 2026

The long range period will begin under a northwesterly flow regime downstream of a longwave ridge located over the Great Basin, resulting in dry and generally tranquil conditions. As we head into early next week, high temperatures will remain at or slightly above normal through Sunday into Tuesday before the ridge begins to dampen. Tuesday there will be some fire concerns given our drought conditions, dry fuels, progged wind gusts of 30-35 mph, and mean RH values around 20%, especially along the I-25 corridor. Wednesday the pattern will turn more active as a series of vorticity lobes embedded in the zonal flow pattern will propagate across Southern Wyoming and Western Nebraska, despite the main forcing for ascent remaining well to our north over Montana and the Dakotas. This will favor showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms over our area, given ensemble mean MUCAPE of around 50 J/Kg. However, QPF appears to be negligible at this time and won't put much of a dent in our drought conditions. As ensemble mean surface RH values are around 30% during this period, any convection will likely produce far more wind than rain. This is also confirmed via forecast soundings showing a stout inverted-V profile suggesting more of a dry microburst threat. Temperatures on Wednesday will also be quite mild, with highs 5-10 degrees above climatology in the mid to upper 60s east of the Laramie Range and mid to upper 50s to the west. This is thanks to 45- 50 knot zonal 700 mb flow, which is also not exactly favorable for widespread precipitation given downslope flow.

Heading into Thursday, we will be situated downstream of a more amplified trough and an associated closed upper-level low, keeping low (30% chance or so) PoPs in the forecast. As global models are suggesting that we will be located in the right-entrance region of an upper-level jet to our north as well as in the left-exit region of an upper-level jet to our south (i.e. a coupled jet structure), which are both favorable regions for large-scale ascent, precipitation may be more widespread relative to the day prior, although confidence in this is relatively low at this time. Temperatures through the end of the work week look to be near seasonal values.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 502 AM MDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Isolated to scattered showers are ongoing across the Nebraska Panhandle as well as low ceilings this morning. KAIA is experiencing light snow, reducing visibility to around 6SM this morning with low ceilings. Low ceilings are expected to break for a few hours this morning into the for KCYS, KBFF, KSNY, and KAIA before lower ceilings return with the next round of rain and snow showers expected to move into the region. Gusty winds will be ongoing all day with KCYS and KSNY likely to see gusts in excess of 50kts.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ119. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for WYZ103- 110. High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for WYZ106-110- 118. Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for WYZ112- 114. High Wind Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ116-117. NE...High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for NEZ019>021-054-055.