textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- High Wind Watches have been upgraded to High Wind Warnings for the typical wind prone areas on Tuesday.

- Dangerous fire conditions expected Tuesday afternoon with low humidity and very strong winds.

- A prolonged Red Flag event is looking likely this week with near- record to record breaking temperatures expected across the region. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for all areas along and east of the Laramie Range from 9AM Wednesday through at least 6PM Friday.

- Record breaking warm temperatures are expected across the entire area during the second half of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 126 AM MDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Much quieter weather is expected throughout the week as upper-level riding begins to dominate the region Tuesday through the weekend. For today, largely northerly to north-northwesterly flow is expected as the upper-level ridge builds over the far southwestern portions of the CONUS and the ridge axis shifts eastward. Multiple lobes of 500mb cyclonic vorticity advection will push through the CWA today leading to increasing cloud cover through the afternoon and evening hours. 700mb flow remains largely northwesterly as the 700mb low continues to push off to the east and the 700mb ridge starting building just off the coast of California. With northwesterly 700mb flow, multiple weak disturbances are expected to push through the flow throughout the day along with increasing warm air advection, bringing continued isolated to scattered mountain snow chances for the Sierra Madre and Snowy ranges. Significant snowfall is not expected with these disturbances as the atmosphere remains fairly dry. However, the highest elevations could pick up an additional 2 to 4 inches of snow. During this transitional flow period, 700mb height gradients will remain elevated, leading to a jet around 45 to 50kts for the early and mid-morning hours before reducing into the early afternoon and early evening hours. However, as the 700mb ridge slowly progresses eastward, 700mb flow will become elevated once again starting this evening and continuing through Tuesday afternoon and evening. As a result, a 700mb jet around 45 to 50kts is expected to redevelop through the evening and into the overnight hours. Stronger downward omega values are expected with the second wave of increasing winds, suggesting that 700mb winds may mix down to the surface in the wind prone area, likely producing gusts between 60 and 70mph. The High Wind Watches have been upgraded to High Wind Warnings from 9PM tonight through midnight Tuesday night. Isolated gusts up to 60 to 60mph cannot be completely ruled out near Arlington prior to the High Wind Warning going into effect, but any gusts to this level are not currently anticipated to be frequent due to weaker parameters during this time. Expect temperatures this afternoon to warm into the 40s across much of the CWA, with a warmer night expected compared to Sunday night/Monday morning.

For Tuesday, the upper-level ridge axis will barely move further to the east, with the axis centered over southern California for much of the day and into mid-week. Therefore, northwesterly flow is expected to continue across the CWA with a few lobes of 500mb cyclonic vorticity traversing overhead. Favorable synoptic lift for snow showers across the mountains is expected to end by 6AM Tuesday, leading to drier conditions and clearing skies. A 700mb shortwave trough looks to develop overnight Tuesday into the early morning hours, increasing 700mb winds as is passes overhead and likely leaving a few residual clouds across the CWA Tuesday afternoon. The 700mb jet will increase to around 55 to 60kts early Tuesday morning, continuing to favor high winds near the surface. Downward omega values will also be a touch stronger Tuesday morning, so some of the stronger wind gusts may expand eastward into the wind prone adjacent zones, including central Laramie County. At this time, confidence is on the lower side for high winds to occur in Cheyenne, but with this type of set up, gusty conditions are very likely. This 700mb flow will slowly weaken throughout the day as 700mb temperatures increase into the 2 to 4C range Tuesday afternoon. Surface temperatures are expected to increase into the upper-50s to low-70s across the area, with the warmest temperatures expected across western Nebraska. Downsloping winds throughout the day should help increase the temperature at Cheyenne towards the mid- to upper-60s. Precipitation is not anticipated, lead to very dry conditions throughout the afternoon hours. While relative humidity values are only expected to drop into the 20 to 25% range, with winds potentially gusting upwards of 50 to 60mph, especially along I-25 from Cheyenne to Sidney, dangerous fire weather conditions may develop. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for this area through Tuesday evening.

Looking ahead, a long duration Fire Weather Watch has been issued for all areas along and east of the Laramie Range. Daily temperatures are expected to soar towards record values as the upper- level ridge takes hold of the western CONUS. With breezy and very dry conditions expected to continue, critical fire conditions are expected every afternoon through the end of the week. Overnight humidity recoveries look to be quite low throughout the week, so the second Fire Weather Watch will run from 9AM Wednesday through at least 8PM Friday, and may be extended into Saturday afternoon.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 126 AM MDT Mon Mar 16 2026

No major changes. Record temperatures and critical fire conditions expected through the week. Please see previous discussion for more details...

The long term will be flat out hot for this time of year, as a high pressure ridge controls the Western US and brings record breaking temperatures alongside a daily concern for critical fire weather conditions. Ensembles show nearly identical forecasts with high pressure ridging originating from the Desert Southwest and expanding over the entirety of the region through the end of the forecast period, with some shifting eastwards and perhaps flattening of this feature by Saturday into Sunday. But this ridge is expected to keep us under warm westerly to northwesterly flow aloft, with dry air overspreading and keeping nil precipitation chances the standard during the period. This will bring two sensible weather concerns to the CWA - firstly, record setting warmth is nearly certain with this pattern. Widespread highs in the mid 70's to mid 80's are expected, making it feel more like late spring and early summer. Normal highs for this time of year are in the upper 40's to upper 50's, so this means we'll be around 20-25+ degrees above normal for this time of year. Secondly, the significant dry air alongside limited overnight recoveries and breezy diurnal winds will combine to produce a critical environment for fire weather, with red flag warnings likely to be issued within the next couple of days. Our drought conditions are all but certain to persist and likely become exasperated in the coming week as precipitation becomes a fleeting memory, and winter is stuck in the rear-view.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 500 AM MDT Mon Mar 16 2026

VFR conditions expected through the 12Z TAF period. Mid-level clouds will move in throughout the morning hours, lowering ceilings to below 10,000ft AGL. Gusty winds expected during the afternoon before decreasing after sunset.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Friday evening for WYZ417>419-430>433. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for WYZ430-431. High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM MDT Tuesday for WYZ106. High Wind Warning from 9 PM this evening to midnight MDT Tuesday night for WYZ110-116-117. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Friday evening for NEZ434>437. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for NEZ437.