textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Bitterly cold temperatures are possible Friday morning. Clear skies alongside snowpack may lead to highlight worthy feels- like temperatures, but uncertainty remains in overall cold alongside possible fog insulating some locations.

- Another round of snow will be possible on Friday as a second system attempts to develop across the Rockies. 1 to 2 inches of snow is possible for the lower elevations along I-80, with 3 to 5 additional inches possible in the mountains.

- Temperatures also cold Saturday morning alongside breezy winds, but insulating cloud cover may once again prevent cold weather highlights.

- Next widespread high wind event expected on Tuesday, continuing through Thursday alongside light precipitation chances.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 138 AM MST Fri Feb 20 2026

Another round of snow showers are expected today as the upper-level trough bringing all the weather to the region slowly slides eastward throughout the day. Mostly clear skies are ongoing across the CWA tonight, but the cloud deck associated with the upper-level trough is starting to impact far southwestern Carbon County as of 08Z this morning. As this trough continue to slide eastward, increasing cloud cover is expected, with many seeing overcast skies by the early afternoon. A closed 700mb low attempts to develop through the late morning and early afternoon hours with an associated surface low developing over far southeastern Colorado into western Kansas. Most models are onboard with a more southern low, leading to lesser impacts across the CWA. However, favorable wind directions along the southern most portions of the CWA, along I-80, will produce the best chances for snowfall this morning into the afternoon hours. Isentropic analysis from the NAM and GFS both suggest moist, isentropic lift developing over southwestern portions of the CWA and spreading north and east starting between 12 and 15Z this morning. The best isentropic lift across I-80 will be between 15 and 00Z today before isentropic downglide takes over from west to east as the upper-level trough moves out of the area. Snow showers will start over southwestern Carbon County and spread east and slightly north throughout the morning. The I-80 corridor is expected to see another 1 to 2 inches in the lower elevations and 2 to 4 inches in the higher elevations. Locally higher amounts are possible, but not expected to exceed 6 inches. Locations north of I-80 will struggle to see any snowfall, leading to a fairly tight gradient of snowfall from the Colorado/Wyoming border north towards a line from Rawlins east to Scottsbluff. Locations north of this line are not expected to see any accumulating snowfall today.

Temperatures this morning have been very cold, with Alliance currently sitting at -10F as of 08Z. Wind chill values have, thankfully, not dropped too far into the negative teens. Two locations have seen wind chill values below -20F, but with only two sites hitting Extreme Cold Advisory criteria, and the sites are not in the same zones, decided to hold off on any Extreme Cold products as the -20F wind chills are not overly widespread tonight. Temperatures today will struggle to warm into the 20s due to increasing cloud cover and another round of snow for locations along I-80. Winds today will remain fairly light as the developing surface low will be situated too far south to give the CWA strong winds. A few breezy locations will be possible, though strong gusts are not expected. Winds are expected to increase through the evening and overnight hours, especially along and east of the Laramie Range. With another round of cold temperatures expected Saturday morning,in the single digits, these winds will lead to wind chill values dropping back into the negatives once again.

Upper-level ridging starts to push back into the region throughout the day Saturday. A 700mb shortwave is progged to dive southwest from southern Canada into the Dakotas, leading to a strengthening 700mb height gradient across the CWA. 700mb winds are expected to become elevated throughout the afternoon and evening hours. Subsidence from the upper-level ridge moving into the region will allow these winds to mix down to the surface, resulting in elevated winds along and east of the Laramie Range throughout the daytime before decreasing after sunset. High Winds are not anticipated with this shortwave passage, but breezy conditions will be present across the region. However, with breezy, westerly winds comes warmer temperatures. Temperatures Saturday will warm into the 30s and 40s everywhere. Another warm day is expected Sunday as the upper-level ridge moves fully overhead. Temperatures will rise into the upper- 30s to 40s everywhere, signaling the start to a strong warming pattern expected for the work week.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 138 AM MST Fri Feb 20 2026

No major changes, see previous discussion...

On Monday, 500 mb heights will continue to rise as a longwave ridge establishes itself across the western portion of the country, placing our CWA in a broad WNW flow regime. This will result in a warming trend, with ensemble guidance in good agreement that high temperatures will reach 10-15 degrees above climatology. On Tuesday, temperatures should easily approach 60 degrees east of the Laramie Range given enhanced downsloping.

To be expected, this warming trend will be accompanied by an increase in our winds. As a result of strengthening cross-barrier flow relative to the Laramie Range, wind speeds are expected to ramp up especially on Tuesday, with 700 mb winds expected to exceed 50 knots. In-house guidance suggests the greatest probabilities of high winds will be in the usual wind-prone areas (Bordeaux and Arlington), with probabilities of 60+ mph wind gusts ranging from 60- 80%. A classic mountain wave pattern looks to remain in place until at least the middle of next week, with more high wind conditions on Wednesday and Thursday. Precipitation chances increase as well during this timeframe as numerous vorticity lobes embedded in the flow will provide some synoptic-scale forcing for ascent, although QPF looks to be on the lighter side at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1020 PM MST Thu Feb 19 2026

VFR conditions tonight across all terminals, then another system will begin to push in by 13Z, primarily impacting our southern terminals. Precipitation chances increase and by 18Z, KLAR, KCYS, and KSNY could see light snow. At this time, only expecting aviation conditions to dip down to MVFR through 00Z Saturday. Winds across all sites will generally remain under 10 knots for the duration of this TAF period.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...None. NE...None.