textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warnings are in effect for areas east of the Laramie Range today and Monday due to dry conditions.

- There will be chances of afternoon and evening showers and a few thunderstorms Monday night through Friday, with the best chance Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 111 AM MDT Sun Apr 12 2026

As the shortwave that moved through the CWA Saturday exits the region, southwesterly flow aloft along with lee-side troughing at the surface will support a favorable dry downslope regime east of the Laramie Range. This will lead to elevated fire weather concerns today, locally critical, even though highs this afternoon will be slightly cooler then yesterday. Expect highs to top out in the 60s west of the I-25 corridor and 70s off to the east, warmest across the Nebraska Panhandle where a few locations may hit the 80 degree mark. These temps along with dry west to southwest winds 15 to 20 mph, gusts up to 35 mph, and min RH values tanking into the 8 to 12 percent range, along with dry fuels, make for a ripe environment for fire starts and spread. Therefore, the Red Flag Warning that were issued yesterday remains in effect which begins at noon today for the eastern half of our CWA. These drier conditions will bleed over into the nighttime hours and Monday as dry downsloping winds continue. This will make for poor overnight RH recovery Sunday night and as such, the Red Flag Warning for the same area remains in effect through 8pm Monday.

Elsewhere across the CWA, precipitation chances increase Sunday night through Monday as another weak shortwave slides into our CWA. This time, precipitation chances will mainly be confined to areas west of the I-25 corridor. This is depicted nicely on hi-res guidance, showing a few isolated showers that develops Sunday night over the higher terrain. A caveat, low-levels will remain dry which will make most of the precipitation evaporate before hitting the ground, producing localized gusty winds. Modeled soundings show the classical signature for this with an Inverted-V which trickles into Monday. This is why we have the Red Flag Warning out through 8PM Monday. Over the higher terrain, mainly above 6K feet, it is not out of the realm of possibility that snow showers develop causing light accumulations of generally less than an inch. This activity will linger into Monday night as a shortwave ejects northeast into our region as a deep low edges closer to our CWA. So, Monday's highs will be much like today while lows are a tad cooler, with low 30s west of the Laramie Range and near 40 to the east.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1212 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

As we move into the middle of next week, the pattern will remain active and progressive, with a series of shortwave troughs moving through Southeastern Wyoming and Western Nebraska. With the forcing for ascent appearing to be weak at this time, in addition to PWAT values around climatology, confidence in seeing any appreciable precipitation is low, which is certainly not what we want to see given our severe to extreme drought conditions across our entire region. In terms of temperatures, highs on Tuesday look to be 5-10 degrees above climatology mainly in the upper 50s and low 60s along and east of the I-25 corridor, with 40s and 50s west of the Laramie Range.

Numerous shortwave troughs embedded in the flow continue to traverse our area Wednesday and Thursday in this progressive pattern. However, the strongest DCVA is progged to be well to our south over Eastern Colorado, so QPF looks to remain spotty and light with amounts generally < 0.1" as suggested by LREF ensemble guidance. Winds are also expected to ramp up on Wednesday morning, with in- house random forest guidance giving both Arlington and Bordeaux 35- 40% probabilities of exceeding high wind criteria. This is due to an enhanced gradient thanks to lee cyclogenesis occurring over Southwestern Nebraska, resulting in 700 mb flow increasing to 40-45 knots. Temperatures are also expected to be mild given the downslope flow regime, with NBM 50th percentile temperatures approaching 70 degrees for our Nebraska counties on Wednesday, increasing to 70-75 degrees on Thursday. It's a little far out at this time, but would not be shocked to see a few 80 degree readings on Thursday as 500 mb heights rise ahead of the next incoming system. Depending on how much moisture we can squeeze out of each weak impulse this week, fire highlights may be needed during the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe given the increase in winds, dry fuels, anomalously warm temperatures, and mean RH progged to be below 20%.

Friday will feature much cooler temperatures behind a cold front moving through Eastern Wyoming and Western Nebraska overnight, so can expect high temperatures to run about 20 degrees cooler relative to Thursday. Week mid-level ridging builds across the area into the weekend, so anticipate a warming trend and dry conditions at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1035 PM MDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Quick moving upper level disturbance will lift north of the area tonight and eject northeast into the Dakotas by early Sunday morning. Any remnant showers will dissipate by 09z, with clearing skies and lighter winds into Sunday.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the night and into Sunday with a very low potential for fog due to limited or no precipitation amounts. Relatively light winds tonight will become southwesterly after 15z Sunday, with gusts of 25 to 35 knots for KRWL and KLAR, and generally up to 25 knots for KCYS and the western Nebraska terminals.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT Monday for WYZ417>419-430>433. NE...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM MDT Monday for NEZ434>437.