textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions and above average temperatures will continue into the next week.

- Fire weather concerns will increase on Monday alongside a chance at record high temperatures.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Overall the forecast remains largely similar to the previous few updates with hardly any changes anticipated. Tonight we'll see a few clouds possible as the ridge controlling the region begins to flatten out a bit more and weaken in response to troughing well to the north of us. However, this moisture will be mostly upper level, as our surface dewpoints remain critically low. This alongside significantly warmer than average temperatures on Monday will produce critically low RH values, and with breezy winds expected from a loosely enhanced pressure gradient, critical fire weather conditions are expected. The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning in response to this, valid from noon through 6 PM. Highs remain on track to sit 20 degrees above normal as 700mb temperatures are set to peak between 12 to 15C. Not only will daily highs be in jeopardy with this warmth, but a few monthly highs could be tied or possibly broken with this warmth as well. And overnight lows as well could reach record warmth as we move into Tuesday morning with widespread 50's expected. Tuesday should be a few degrees cooler thanks to the weakening of the ridge, but we'll still see near record highs with widespread upper 70's to mid 80's once again. Critical fire weather conditions should relax on Tuesday as, while elevated thanks to low RH values once again, winds should lessen enough that a critical environment will not be present.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 220 PM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Not a whole lot of interesting developments in the long term from previous forecasts. A weak NW flow regime is in place while an upper level low bats back the ridge to our south. The weaker ridging pattern will allow temperatures to lower a tad Wednesday through the end of the forecast period, which is a plus. Highs in the 80s east and 70s out west. Lows in the 50s and 40s. Humidity values stay low, in the low 20s and teens and winds start increasing ahead of the next Pacific trough. Global models are starting to come into focus on this system. The evolution is still uncertain, particularly on how compact and amplified this trough enters the scene, but the presence of this system is becoming more certain. A compact system would bring greater southwesterly winds. Not the greatest news when combined with the dry afternoon humidities for elevated fire concerns next weekend.

The ensembles start diverging greatly on Sunday. A cold front in some of the solutions is driving a nearly 10 to 25 degree spread in ensemble members. A good cold front and Pacific system would bring in rain and storms. Temperatures would still be on the warm side for snow, outside of mountains.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1121 AM MDT Sun Oct 4 2026

VFR conditions anticipated at terminals given the ridging pattern. Clear to mostly clear skies and winds out of the south to southwest at 10 to 15 knots, gusts to 25 at Nebraska terminals. Overnight there are some signs that low level clouds develop over some of the Nebraska Panhandle terminals. Some of the more aggressive model solutions have CIGs down to about 1000 feet between 8 and 16z. This would be mainly after when the low level jet begins to subside and how much moisture ultimately gets advected northward. If the more bullish solutions are right KBFF, KAIA, and KSNY may dip into MVFR. Tomorrow is much the same as today with clear skies. Winds out of the west or northwest.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM MDT Monday for WYZ418>422- 427-430-432. NE...None.