textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow showers will come to an end this morning in Platte, Albany, and Laramie counties. Locally slick conditions and patchy blowing snow are possible.

- A widespread strong to locally damaging wind event remains on track for much of the area, with the strongest winds Thursday night through Friday afternoon.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected daily from Thursday onward due to gusty winds, low humidity, and dry fuels.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 345 AM MST Wed Jan 14 2026

The synoptic weather pattern over the country remains dominated by an amplified west coast ridge and broad central/eastern trough pattern this morning, with a nearly due north to south oriented jet streak located in between the two features over our area. GOES imagery indicates moisture and cloud cover moving south in this jet streak as an elongated vort-max aloft pushes away to the southeast. This feature helped push a frontal boundary back into our area, which now remains stalled roughly along the I-25 corridor. Frontogenesis combined with modest overrunning and low-level convergence are helping to support a persistent region of light to moderate precipitation streaming southward along the Laramie range and I-25 corridor. As temperatures have cooled, we are seeing mostly snow above about 5000 ft in elevation. Areas of southern Platte, Laramie, and eastern Albany counties may see localized accumulations up to an inch or so this morning before forcing for lift evaporates by around 8AM.

After that, expect the frontal boundary to be pushed back to the east as the western ridge amplifies and expands over our area. 700- mb temperatures will recover quickly from around -4 to -8C this morning to around 0 to +2C by tomorrow morning. Highs will be overall a few degrees cooler than yesterday over the High Plains as the recovery of the warm airmass will not be immediate. Morning cloud cover will also hold temperatures down a little bit today, but this will also keep fire weather concerns low despite continued gusty northwest winds over much of the area.

Two shortwave troughs will dive down from the north across the area during this period. The first will be a weak system arriving Thursday morning. Ahead of this system, expect falling surface pressure over the High Plains which will enhance the cross-barrier pressure gradient through our gaps tonight into Thursday morning. Forcing above the surface for high winds will not really be present, but pure gap flow will still help nudge up winds, likely mainly at Bordeaux. Surface parameters are right around typical thresholds for warning issuances (e.g. 850-mb Craig to Casper height gradient around 55 to 60 m and Arlington to Bordeaux MSLP gradient around 5-6 mb). However, the wind direction aloft will be a very unfavorable northwest to even NNW. Wind speeds in the gridded forecast were adjusted to just below criteria, but held off on any headlines for Bordeaux tonight. Probabilities for high winds are generally around 30 to 40%. With the warmest 700-mb temperatures moving overhead at night, Thursday's high temperatures potential will be slightly reduced behind the first weak shortwave trough, but overall should be similar to Wednesday. Once the surface trough moves eastward Thursday morning, expect gusty northwest winds to overspread the entire High Plains yet again, with a fairly dry airmass moving in and increasing fire weather concerns.

The second shortwave trough will arrive Thursday night, and will be much stronger than the first. Expect a significant drop in temperatures and rapid rise in winds behind this boundary Thursday evening. Recent model guidance has begun to hint at some precipitation along this frontal boundary, which is consistent with the general trend this season of models missing precipitation along these frontal boundaries until the short range. Lift appears to be fairly potent with respectable frontogenesis and low-level convergence as the front pushes southwest. Moisture will be quite limited, but there may be a narrow band of better moisture right along the boundary before drier air quickly pushes in from behind. The NBM remains completely dry, but decided to introduce some low end PoPs Thursday evening and overnight, mainly along the Laramie Range, Snowy Range, and I-25 corridor where lift associated with the front struggling to push west will be most potent. Due to the brief window and limited moisture, liquid precipitation over 0.1" is highly unlikely, but some locations may be able to pick up a few tenths of an inch of snow.

Behind the front, we will see a very strong pressure gradient set up over the High Plains with very strong winds moving in aloft. A potent 700-mb jet will push southward Thursday evening and plant itself over the area through Saturday. This will peak in strength Friday morning at over 70 knots per the LREF mean. Widespread strong northwest winds gusting 60 to 70 mph will be possible over the High Plains late Thursday night through Friday. A High Wind Watch has been issued to cover this threat. Closer to the I-25 corridor, confidence is a little lower with 700-mb winds not quite as strong. Northwest is also not a particularly favorable direction for the typical wind prone areas (although the I-80 summit can still get quite windy in these cases). Forecast soundings show a transient stable layer developing between 500 and 700-mb which could help get some mountain wave activity going, but wind speeds increase dramatically above the inversion, which reduces the chance for wave breaking and its associated acceleration. This does, however, support the potential for trapped lee waves. Therefore, only messaging gusts to around 75 mph for the wind prone areas at this time, but we will need to monitor this potential in the coming days. This will also be an unusually cold high wind event, with temperatures struggling to break freezing on Friday for most of the area. Despite the cold temperatures, exceptionally dry air moving in behind the front will keep relative humidity quite low, and lead to another round of elevated fire weather conditions. Grassland wildfire could spread quickly in these winds, even with the cold temperatures.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 345 AM MST Wed Jan 14 2026

High Wind watches are set to expire Friday afternoon or evening across the area as the setting sun should help decouple the surface from the much stronger winds aloft continuing. There could be an exception in the I-80 wind prone areas, which can more readily realize elevated 700-mb winds. When considering an upgrade to this watch, we may also need to consider extending or continuing into Saturday morning. Saturday won't be quite as windy as Friday, but still plenty windy with gusts generally in the 40 to 55 mph range anticipated. The ridge will begin to recover Saturday, pushing high temperatures close to seasonal averages. We should climb above average for Sunday as the ridge expands to the east again.

Ensemble members diverge significantly on Monday. One camp of members (about 60%) show another shortwave trough pushing down from the north and bringing another shot of cold air into the area on Monday. The other 40% of ensemble members keep the ridge fairly strong over the area, and thus keep temperatures milder. If we do see this front moving through the area, there will likely be another chance for some light snow, but the maximum potential of this would be quite limited thanks to moisture remaining extremely low. In fact, nearly all ensemble members keep dewpoints in the single digits to lower teens at best through the middle part of next week. As a result, the regular breezy to windy conditions continuing will produce elevated to near critical fire weather conditions over the High Plains for the forseeable future. There is little to no chance for considerable precipitation (> 0.1" liquid) through at least the 22nd, and possibly longer.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 433 AM MST Wed Jan 14 2026

Snow showers will come to an end over the next few hours, but periods of MVFR, if not a brief round of IFR, will remain possible at KCYS, KLAR, and KCDR. VFR should prevail after about 16z or so. After that, another round of gusty northwest winds is expected, with gusts of 20 to 30 knots at KRWL and Nebraska terminals, and gusts of 30 to 40 knots at KLAR and KCYS. Winds will ease overnight.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for WYZ101-102. High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for WYZ107-108-118-119. High Wind Watch from late Thursday night through Friday afternoon for WYZ110. High Wind Watch from late Thursday night through Friday evening for WYZ116-117. NE...High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for NEZ002-095. High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for NEZ003-019>021-054-055-096.