textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the evening. Localized flash flooding remains possible.

- Warmer air will return to the area Friday into early next week. Near record high temperatures are possible Saturday through Monday.

- Dry weather is expected Friday with a few isolated storms Saturday and Sunday. Monsoon moisture will return Monday and increase thunderstorm chances thereafter.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 146 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

The upper level ridge is still feeding the Intermountain West some monsoonal moisture from the central Pacific. Coverage is starting become more active with scattered showers and few thunderstorms popping up across the forecast area. Unlike yesterday widespread rainfall is not expected with these weak showers but localized heavy rainfall is still possible under the stronger thunderstorms. The weather threat looks limited today, but gusty outflow winds between 60 to 65 mph can't be ruled out as the updrafts in the stronger thunderstorms start to collapse. The primary concern remains frequent lightning and isolated heavy rainfall with some flooding potential. The Flood watch is still expected to expire at midnight tonight. Hi-res guidance has pretty good consensus of shower development decreasing quite rapidly after 6pm with any lingering storms/showers to be either moved out of the area or dissipated around 11pm.

The ridge aloft will amplify across the Rockies on Friday into the weekend, leading to another round of heat. Areas west of I-25 will be in the 80's and 90's tomorrow while areas east of I-25 is expected to be in the 90's. Temperatures are expected to be in the 90's and 100's by Saturday with the core of central high pressure moving back west to the four corners region. This will result in a robust capping inversion around 550-mb per forecast soundings, which will put a strong cap on thunderstorm activity. Overall, expect little to no afternoon showers and thunderstorms Friday and through this weekend.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 146 PM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Saturday through Wednesday...Isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms expected, with areal coverage increasing each day due to increased mid level moisture. Fortunately, more beneficial rains expected concentrated over and near our Snowy, Sierra Madre and Southern Laramie Ranges, with the best chances for convection on Monday through Wednesday. Typical weak northwest flow aloft on the northeast periphery of the ridge aloft will aid in occasional passing shortwave troughs aloft near peak heating resulting in increasing convective potential each day.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1157 AM MDT Thu Jul 23 2026

A shortwave trough aloft, also known as a weather disturbance aloft, moves to eastern Wyoming by early evening, then to western Nebraska by midnight, and interacts with a moist low and mid level atmosphere to produce scattered to numerous showers, and scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, most concentrated along and east of Interstate 25. A drier and warmer airmass will then spread across the region late tonight and on Friday.

Wyoming TAFS...HRRR and the NAM show the first round of scattered showers and thunderstorms developing and propagating southeastward across the aviation area through 22Z, and confidence is high enough based on timing to include PROB30s at Cheyenne and Rawlins due to extended time frame, and a TEMPO at Laramie. Some of the strongest storms will produce wind gusts near 45 knots, along with MVFR ceilings and visibilities along with erratic winds. A secondary round of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely develop across Albany and Laramie Counties, according to the HRRR, from 00Z to 03Z. Then skies will clear out with VFR prevailing. As is common, expect gusty diurnal winds until sunset.

Nebraska TAFS...HRRR and the NAM show an initial round of scattered showers and thunderstorms affecting the central and southern Panhandle from 20Z to 01Z, and thus confidence is high enough to include PROB30s at both Scottsbluff and Sidney, with the strongest storms producing erratic wind gusts to 45 knots as well as brief MVFR ceilings and visibilities. Although the HRRR shows considerably less coverage of convection for the KCDR and KAIA sites, believe it would be prudent to go with PROB30s from 21Z to 02Z in case the HRRR is too far south with its projections. Skies will clear out later tonight with VFR prevailing. Expect the typical gusty diurnal winds until sunset.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for WYZ101>119. NE...Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NEZ002-003-019>021- 054-055-095-096.