textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- High winds are expected to return to the wind prone areas tonight through midday Tuesday.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected over portions of the High Plains Tuesday.

- A brief shot of cold temperatures is possible across the area Friday into Saturday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 300 AM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

The latest in the train of clipper systems is slowly pushing to our south this morning. GOES water vapor imagery shows mid to upper level moisture over the southern tier of the forecast area, but this is being nudged southward by drier air filtering in from the north. With the frontogenesis weakening, the very light snow is on a downward trajectory, and should come to an end shortly. Most of the area is enjoying pleasantly light winds at this hour, but sadly this break will be short lived. The persistent 700-mb jet will be back this morning. Winds will first pick up in the higher elevations and gap areas, and then spread out to the plains with mixing by mid to late morning. While it will be another breezy to windy day, we will not see winds as strong as the last several days. Today's gusts will largely be in the 30 to 45 mph range across the area with temperatures fairly close to seasonal averages.

Another clipper system will begin diving down across the northern Rockies overnight tonight. Falling surface pressure ahead of this system will create a lee trough more or less along the I-25 corridor, which will reach peak strength Tuesday morning. In addition to the surface pressure gradient, this clipper will take a slightly more westerly track through the area, which will also boost the 700-mb height gradient. Both surface and 700-mb gradients are supportive of high winds in the typical gap wind areas beginning tonight and lasting through Tuesday morning. Craig to Casper 700-mb height gradients exceed 60m per the GFS Tuesday morning, and most guidance agreeing on a 3-5mb MSLP gradient across each barrier. This supports a fairly high confidence but not extreme wind event, but winds should remain fairly confined to the wind prone areas. The typical areas should see consistent gusts of perhaps 55 to 65 mph, with a few gusts to 70 mph possible. The position of the surface trough right along I-25 does reduce confidence for the Bordeaux area, as the highway might be just east of the pressure minimum. Probabilities for the I-80 wind prone areas are around 60 to 70%, but are a little lower for Bordeaux. Still, confidence was high enough to issue a High Wind Watch for each of the three zones beginning at midnight and lasting through early Tuesday afternoon.

The shortwave aloft will arrive around midday Tuesday, bringing with it a surface cold front. This will turn winds from west to northwest and spread gusts of 40 to 50 mph across the High Plains. The temperatures drop along the front doesn't look too significant at this time, but the daytime arrival will keep highs to near or just slightly above seasonal averages. Behind the front, the threat for high winds will decrease, but it will still be breezy to windy for most of the area. Hi-res models are struggling with how to handle the precipitation potential along this front (again), but synoptic models show a narrow band of moisture and modest frontogenesis moving into the area Tuesday afternoon. This was enough to add some slight chances for snow into the official forecast, but probabilities are under 25% for any individual location at this time. As with most of these types of events this season, the ceiling is quite low still, but we may manage to get a dusting for some parts of the area again.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 300 AM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

Another clipper system, tracking slightly more to the east of the first, will push over the area on Wednesday. This will bring another reinforcing cold front through the area during the day on Wednesday. Expect a renewed surge of northwest to north winds behind this front, but again it probably won't be a very distinct temperature boundary. The upper level shortwave will stay to our east, but similar to today's event, we could see some modest frontogenesis as the low-level front gets pushed up against the mountains. Forecast soundings are pretty dry, which will limit snowfall potential, but models are a little more aggressive on available lifting mechanisms. The airmass is too dry at this time to add PoPs for this period, but we will need to keep an eye for another possibility for some light snow. Recent model trends have backed off on the warmup potential for Thursday, with the period between shortwave troughs just too short to allow the ridge to re-amplify between. The strongest cold front of the bunch has also trended faster, which could mean Thursday's temperatures would be quite cold instead of the milder day it looked like 24 hours ago.

For the end of the week, ensemble guidance looks dramatically different compared to recent forecasts. While a shot of cold air now looks much more likely, the precipitation potential with this system has decreased. On the synoptic scale, ensembles are now failing to break down the persistent ridge over the Pacific northwest. As a result, Pacific moisture remains nearly completely blocked. A closed low stuck underneath the ridge near the southern California coast late in the week will have a tap to the Pacific as it moves inland, so the main question now is whether moisture from that system can push into our area before the strong arctic high suppresses the upper level low to the south. Only about 50% of ensemble members have any snow at all for the High Plains in the latest suite. Current probabilities for 1" of snow or more over the Plains are around 10 to 20%. The lack of moisture over the top of the ridge has also reduced the chance for appreciable mountain precipitation, which is an unfortunate development for our paltry mid-season snowpack. Probabilities for an inch or more of snow in the mountains on Thursday-Saturday are only around 50% now. About 25% of ensemble members bring moisture in ahead of the front, and still deliver decent accumulating snow to the mountains, but the remaining show either just a few inches or nothing at all. The faster trend of the arctic cold front has increased confidence in a cold day Friday, with highs likely 10-20F colder than seasonal averages. However, the high should begin to retreat over the weekend as the seemingly immovable west coast ridge begins to re-strengthen.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1020 AM MST Mon Jan 19 2026

After low clouds and/or fog earlier today, satellite imagery shows SKC across all terminals and as such, VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of this TAF period. Winds will be the only aviation concern as gusty west winds spread over the area today. Look for gusts generally in the 20 to 30 knot range today while slightly stronger gusts return by tomorrow morning, 25-40 knots, which persists until the end of the TAF period.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...High Wind Watch from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon for WYZ106-110-116. NE...None.