textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for much of southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska Sunday.

- High winds are possible Tuesday for most of Southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska. Fire weather concerns possible early next week.

- Colder and more active weather pattern expected after Tuesday with a good chance of snow late Wednesday and Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 110 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

Current KCYS radar loop shows a few light rain/snow showers across far southeast Wyoming and the southern Nebraska Panhandle early this morning. Observations across this region show very little, if any, of this precip reaching the ground with only a few light sprinkles reported. Kept Isolated to scattered wording in this morning's forecast, but this activity will likely shift east and diminish over the next 3 hours. A pretty nice day is expected Saturday with high temperatures in the 50s to around 60 across the high plains, and remaining in the mid to upper 40s west of Interstate 25. Wind should be relatively light with occasionally breezy winds across the wind prone areas. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies are expected as models show a ridge axis nudging into the central Rocky Mountain region for the weekend.

For Sunday and Monday, upper level ridge axis will push over the Front Range and then slowly drift east into the High Plains by Monday afternoon. Dry weather will continue with POP near zero each day. 700mb temperatures will continue to increase on Sunday with models showing temps between 0c to 3c during the day. With slightly better/deeper boundary layer mixing (compared to December), record high temperatures are expected across southeast Wyoming and portions of western Nebraska. Current record highs for the date are in the mid 60s across western Nebraska, and around 50 for Rawlins and Laramie. Expect several of these records to be broken. However, there is some concern of forecast cloud cover Sunday afternoon, which may result in slightly cooler temperatures with breezy conditions through the day. Pretty confident that most locations should come within a degree or two of their record highs for the day. Similar temperatures are expected on Monday, but record highs for that date are warmer compared to Sunday (70s for several climate sites). In addition, expect a south wind to develop on Monday which will likely result in slightly cooler temperatures along the Laramie Range, Pine Ridge, and Cheyenne Ridge.

As for winds, the main event will likely be Tuesday. However, models are showing a clear mountain wave signature Sunday afternoon with pretty strong downward Omega on the lee-side of the Sierra Madre, Snowy, and even the Laramie Range. In-house wind guidance is showing some elevated winds along and west of the Laramie Range, but all models show 700mb winds no higher than 45 knots...and not much higher than that aloft. Kept windy conditions with gusts up to 45 MPH for now, and will continue to monitor over the next 24 to 36 hours in the event winds aloft trend higher.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 205 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

Primary forecast concern for the Medium to Long Range portion of the forecast will be Fire Weather and the possibility of strong gusty winds on Tuesday. All models show a potent shortwave trough lifting northeast across the area Tuesday morning colocated with a Pacific cold front. It will be very dry out ahead of this front as morning high temperatures in the 60s are expected across the eastern plains with the potential for wind gusts over 60 MPH ahead and behind the front. This may lead to brief, but significant, fire weather concerns before the front finally moves across the high plains by early to middle Tuesday afternoon. However, confidence is limited due to the narrow window of opportunity and forecast cloud cover.

The other concern is the potential for widespread High Wind event across not only southeast Wyoming, but western Nebraska as well. Models show 700mb winds between 60 to 65 Knots along and east of the Laramie Range. Winds over the wind prone areas and the high valleys of southeast Wyoming will likely be earlier in the day with preferred west to southwest wind direction early in the day. The eastern plains, including western Nebraska, will likely be later in the day and post-frontal out of the west or northwest. Good model agreement with this potential outcome so far, so increased winds and gusts. doesn't look like the strongest wind event of the season, but it looks solid due to strong 800mb to 600mb downward Omega/subsidence peaking between 600 AM to 300 PM Tuesday. In-house wind guidance is suggesting some locations, such as Bordeaux and Coleman, seeing wind gusts as high as 75 MPH due to a Bora-like wind event in addition to local mountain wave activity. Other locations are not as high and may be fighting some cloud cover. Regardless, believe most locations have a good chance seeing wind gusts over 60 MPH. Will likely need a High Wind Watch over the next few days for Tuesday morning and afternoon if models remain consistent. Some precipitation is expected for the valleys, but should be confined to the Laramie and upper North Platte River Valley. Further east, little if any precip is expected due to strong downslope winds. Kept some mention of light rain/snow for the northern Nebraska panhandle and east central Wyoming which will see the least amount of downslope given their terrain and location. The mountains should do well with this system due to strong upslope across the Sierra Madre, and to a lesser extent the Snowy Range. Already have over 1 foot of snow in the forecast for those locations and expect those numbers to increase given current model trends.

Otherwise, a bit of a shift in the overall weather pattern expected after Tuesday with all models showing a Long Wave trough settling into the western half of the United States. The best chance of snow we've seen in a while appears to be late on Wednesday and Thursday as slow moving shortwave trough rounds the base of the long wave trough and lifts northeast across Colorado and near the Wyoming border. May see widespread accumulating snow, but amounts do appear on the light side at this time. Otherwise, temperatures will lower to near or slightly below normal for this time of the year with daytime highs in the 30s to low 40s and low temperatures in the teens. Colder pattern is expected to linger into next weekend with additional chances for snowfall.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 445 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

Some patchy fog possible early this morning for southeast Wyoming. otherwise, an upper level ridge axis will push over the Front Range. Clearing skies and pleasant weather expected into this evening with relatively light winds for most terminals.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours. There is still a slight chance of some fog for KLAR and KRWL early this morning before 15z. However, the potential is quickly dissipating with sunrise approaching. Otherwise, northwest winds will occasionally gust to 25 knots at KSNY, KCYS, and KRWL through this afternoon.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for WYZ417-418-428>433.

NE...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon for NEZ434>437.