textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- High Wind Warnings in effect through 11 AM this morning. After a 6 to 12 hour lull, new High Wind Warnings are in effect from this evening through Saturday morning.

- Red Flag Warnings remain in effect through 6PM Friday evening. Another round of elevated to critical fire weather conditions possible Saturday afternoon.

- Widespread precipitation chances return early next week, though daily probabilities remain only between about 30 and 50%.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 159 AM MST Thu Feb 26 2026

Active weather continues for the next several winds as high winds remains across the region and critical fire weather conditions develop for Friday. The upper-level ridge across the western CONUS will build throughout the day today, shifting upper-level winds for a more west-northwesterly to true northwesterly by late Thursday evening. The primary lobe of 500mb vorticity will advect out of the region by 8AM this morning, taking the more favorable synoptic lift with it. A weaker lobe pushes through this afternoon and may briefly increase precipitation chances of the mountains before all precipitation tapers off by early this evening. 700mb flow will remain amplified throughout the day today, but looks to max out between about 2AM and 5AM this morning when the 700mb jet increases to around 70-75kts. 700mb will start to taper off significantly starting around 8AM this morning and continuing through about 5PM this afternoon. Therefore, the High Wind Warnings will remain in effect through this morning before expiring by noon today. However, a 700mb low over southern Canada will eject eastward today, leading to increasing 700mb height gradients once again, starting around 5PM this evening into early Friday morning. The 55 to 60kt jet will return once again overnight with strong subsident flow progged by the GFS. With in-house guidance also suggesting high winds continuing, a new High Wind Warning has been issued for Arlington, Bordeaux, the I-80 Summit, and Foothills starting around 5PM tonight and continuing through 11 AM Saturday morning. Additionally, central Laramie County has a new High Wind Warning starting at 5 AM Friday morning and continuing through 5 PM Friday when subsidence along the Laramie Range and 700mb jet are at their strongest. The lull between the end of high winds this morning and the start of the next round of high winds looked to be long enough to suggest new High Wind Warnings, rather than extending the current warning through Friday evening and/or Saturday morning. With high winds expected to continue, the associated dry, subsident flow will keep locations east of the Laramie Range very dry with relative humidity values dropping down to about 15 to 20% throughout Saturday afternoon. With very strong winds expected to continue, especially right along the Laramie Range, critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop. The Red Flag Warning remains in effect through Friday evening.

Friday will be another windy day across much of the region as upper- level northwesterly flow remains dominant. However, during the day Friday, the upper-level ridge will remain mostly stationary, but a broad trough over Canada will sink south into the northern CONUS, increasing the height gradients across the region significantly. 700mb flow is expected to remain largely elevated throughout the day Friday, leading to breezy conditions just about everywhere and high winds likely in the wind prones and central Laramie County. As the upper-level trough sags south, increasing gradients throughout the atmosphere, 700mb gradients wil restrengthen with a stronger jet, leading to the next round of high winds throughout Friday afternoon, namely looking at the central Laramie County area. Precipitation is not anticipated on Friday with the very dry conditions east of the Laramie Range, combined with continued subsidence aloft. Expected mostly sunny skies Friday, just very strong winds for areas along and just east of the Laramie Range. Temperatures will be warm once again, in the low-50s to mid-60s everywhere. Unfortunately, with continued dry, subsident flow, relative humidity values Friday afternoon will tank even lower, into the 10 to 15% range, with the lowest values along the I-80 corridor from Cheyenne to Sidney. With Cheyenne expected to see high winds, and locations downstream seeing very elevated winds with gusts up to 45mph, extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop Friday afternoon. The Red Flag Warning will remain in effect through at least Friday afternoon, but the potential may be there for an extension into Saturday afternoon as dry conditions continue.

Saturday will remain largely quiet with the region sandwiched between the upper-level ridge to the southwest and the upper-level trough to the northeast. Northwesterly flow will remain across the region, with 700mb flow slowly decreasing throughout the afternoon hours. High winds are anticipated to end by late Saturday morning, with only elevated winds continuing through the afternoon and evening hours. Additionally, 700mb flow flips more southwesterly across Carbon County, leading to a slight chance (15-20%) of precipitation across the Laramie Range. Significant snowfall is not expected and will likely be less than an inch or two given the dry atmosphere in place. However, this will signal a potentially pattern shift for the week ahead with slightly higher precipitation chances across the region. Saturday looks to be the warmest day in the near future, with highs in the 50s and 60s east of the Laramie Range and mid-50s west. With warm temperatures and continued downslope flow, dry conditions are expected for most areas east of the Laramie Range Saturday afternoon. Relative humidity values are currently progged to drop back into the 15-20% range once again Saturday afternoon. With elevated winds expected, Fire Weather Headlines may be needed for Saturday afternoon as well. Will let day shift take another look at future model runs to determine if an extension of the Red Flag Warning is warranted.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 159 AM MST Thu Feb 26 2026

Upper-level ridging is expected to continue through at least Monday evening ahead of a developing upper-level low moving into the western CONUS Monday morning. Ahead of the incoming low, rather benign conditions are expected, with even 700mb winds taper off significantly, and taking the chance of high winds with them. Additionally, multiple lobes of 500mb vorticity will eject out ahead of the low and across the CWA, resulting in additional synoptic lift across the region and increasing precipitation chances Sunday onwards. The best chance for precipitation looks to be Wednesday as the upper-level low digs eastward across the Four Corners Region before taking a strong jaunt northerly. As of right now, the surface low associated with this system appears to be too far south to give the entire CWA significant precipitation. However, if the low moves further north the region will be under the favorable northern side of the low with the potentially for strong, easterly, upslope flow along I-80 and points north. At this time, both the ECMWF and GFS keep the low too far south, but the ECMWF gives the region more precipitation leading up to the surface low deepening and ejecting northeasterly across Oklahoma and Kansas. The GFS on the other hand develops a strong 700mb low across northeastern Colorado and ejects it off to the north into the Midwest. The surface low, however, is displaced well to the southeast of the center of the 700mb low. Either way, this will be something to keep an eye on as we approach the middle of the work week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 402 AM MST Thu Feb 26 2026

Patchy fog and low-level clouds have develops along the North Platte River Valley and have been impacting KBFF and KAIA this morning. Patchy fog and low clouds may continue through 16Z this morning. Current satellite shows fog clearing from KAIA, so did not include fog in the TAF, but it may briefly impact KAIA again through the early morning hours. KBFF is clearing, but low clouds and fog nearby may move back in. After clouds and fog clear by 16Z, all sites will be VFR with strong winds throughout the day. Clear skies are expected.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM MST Friday for WYZ417-418-430>433. High Wind Warning until 11 AM MST this morning for WYZ106-110- 116-117. High Wind Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST Saturday for WYZ106-110-116-117. High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST this morning for WYZ118. High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 5 PM MST Friday for WYZ118. NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM MST Friday for NEZ434>437.