textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered rain and snow showers will move along the I-80 corridor through Thursday evening. Briefly intense snowfall above about 7500' in elevation could impact travel.

- Another round of light rain and snow showers is expected Friday afternoon and evening.

- While temperatures will remain above seasonal averages for much of the week ahead, there will be occasional chances for light precipitation.

- Widespread high winds and elevated grassland fire danger are possible Monday through Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 410 PM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

Good moisture continues to stream in over the area this afternoon ahead of a sluggish closed low moving into the Great Basin. The latest mesoanalysis shows modest instability (though fairly impressive for February) present over much of southeast Wyoming. SBCAPE values range from 250 to 500 J/kg in Laramie, Albany, Platte, and Carbon counties. Low to mid level lapse rates are quite steep as well, and the atmosphere is nearly saturated all the way through the column. Synoptic lift is fairly weak today, supported by a very subtle shortwave trough triggering light isentropic lift mainly over Laramie county and into the southern Nebraska panhandle. Expect this to be the primary area for shower development this afternoon and evening, but we will see more widely scattered development in Carbon and Albany counties thanks to the instability there. Dewpoints are very high for this time of year, which is preventing snow levels from dropping much. Precipitation type is expected to be rain below 6000', snow above 7500', and a mix of rain and snow in between. Some convective cores may be able to produce a few rumbles of thunder in addition to ice pellets/graupel over the High Plains this afternoon and evening. Higher up, we will need to monitor for locally heavy snow showers knocking down visibility, but it may be hard to meet the wind criteria for a true snow squall with little mechanical forcing present. Shower activity should end by midnight over the High Plains, but on and off snow showers will continue for southern Carbon and Albany counties into Friday morning.

The closed low will migrate inland Friday, pushing across the desert southwest through the day. While the primary upper level low will be well to our south, a secondary shortwave will take a more northerly track across Wyoming. This feature may allow synoptic lift to spread as far north as our area again on Friday. RAP guidance shows overrunning warm air advection kicking up again during the early afternoon hours, spreading light shower activity over Laramie and southern Albany counties, and into the southern Nebraska panhandle. Snow levels will be similar to today, around 7500' with a mix of rain and snow dropping down to around 6000' in locally heavy precipitation. We may have potential for a few rumbles of thunder once again with lapse rates remaining steep. Expect shower activity to wind down around midnight Friday night.

The weekend looks mild and largely dry across the area. 700-mb temperatures will remain mostly between -2C and +2C supporting continued above average temperatures. Saturday's highs look to be around 10F above seasonal averages, while Sunday's will be pushing 15-20F above average. In fact, Sunday's forecast high temperature is currently within a few degrees of daily record highs all across the area. Southwest flow aloft will begin to increase again on Sunday, supporting breezy to windy conditions over Carbon, Albany, and Converse counties.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 410 PM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

A few highlights that we are monitoring in the long term are the possible fire weather conditions this weekend, of which could be critical, and a potential high wind event Tuesday in our typical wind prones across southeast Wyoming. Lets start out looking at the synoptic setup, upper level ridging in place over the region will hold firm through at least Monday morning while a trough moves onshore across the West Coast. Eventually, this trough will trek east and make it to our doorstep late Monday. As it does so, the upper level flow at 500mb becomes southwesterly, bringing in a surge of moisture that will increase the threat of precipitation across the CWA Tuesday into Wednesday. Thereafter, guidance diverges a bit with the placement and movement of this trough for the remainder of the extended period. Now, lets drop a bit to the 700mb level and talk about the potential for a high wind event Tuesday, with the stronger winds continuing into Wednesday. So, by Tuesday afternoon, a 60 knot jet will be firmly in place over the CWA along with ample subsidence (negative Omega(GFS)) that will aid in mixing some of these winds down to the surface. In-house guidance decreased the probability of high winds a bit from previous runs, but still maintains a 20-40 percent chance. Ensembles have probs in the 20-30 percent range for gusts to exceed 55 mph, which we have in the current forecast. Will the Nebraska Panhandle get into the mix, yep, expect some of the stronger winds to trickle into the region, but should stay below the high wind threshold.

The other thing that is on our radar, no pun, and may be of more concern in the long term is the possibility of critical fire weather conditions this weekend. Even though we may not meet our typical criteria when issuing a Red Flag Warning, but elements are coming together to bring this threat. With the lack of any measurable snowfall, or any precipitation as a matter of fact, there is an abundance of dry fuels east of the I-25 corridor. This coupled with breezy conditions along with minimum RH values down near 15%, makes for a perfect set up for grassland fire concerns. So, there may be the need for Red Flag Warnings over the weekend, especially on Sunday, for most of the fire weather zones east of I-25.

Temperatures in the extended will start off mild with 700mb temps in the +2 to +4 degrees C range through Monday, which translates to 50s west of I-25 and 60s to the east, warmest across the Nebraska Panhandle. As they say, all good things must come to an end and temperatures are no different, rounding out the long term, 700mb temps cool to -10 degrees C and so does surface temps with highs only topping out in the mid 30s to mid 40s, cooler west of I-25. Lows will follow a similar pattern, starting out in the low 30s, cooling each night with lows dipping into the teens by the end of the long term period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 410 PM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

Isolated rain and snow showers are expected to continue across southeast Wyoming for the next several hours. VFR conditions are expected to prevail, but may temporarily drop to MVFR towards IFR in the heaviest showers. Conditions improve around 08Z tonight, with VFR conditions expected for most sites for the remainder of the period. KRWL may seem some patchy fog this morning, potentially keeping conditions in the lower-MVFR to IFR range with a visibility at or below 3SM and ceilings at or below 1000ft. Conditions should improve at KRWL late in the 00Z TAF period, likely after 18Z.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...None. NE...None.