textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Record breaking warmth is expected to continue through at least Thursday.

- Elevated fire weather concerns possible again in Laramie County today.

- Strong gusts alongside more record warmth expected on Christmas Day, followed by temperatures cooling slightly by next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 250 AM MST Tue Dec 23 2025

Overall forecast is benign through the short term as we remain firmly entrenched under a stout ridge of high pressure overspreading a vast majority of the country. For today, temperatures will remain well above average with highs in the 60's east of the Laramie Range, and 50's outside of the mountains to the west. We'll remain dry for another day, and RH values may drop into the mid teens through the day primarily in portions of our western and central counties. While locations to the west have had enough moisture that this should preclude any sort of fire weather threat, Laramie County has of course been bereft of notable moisture for some time, and so this combined with some breezy winds could provide an elevated fire weather risk. But current thinking as of this update is that winds and RH's won't coincide for long enough to warrant a Red Flag Warning for the day, but will monitor throughout the morning and afternoon for any changes on that.

Moving into Wednesday, we should see a bit more moisture move into the region and bring higher RH values that will help to inhibit significant fire weather concerns thereafter. This plume of moisture will be spurred by the large US ridge flattening and a shortwave moving across the region into Christmas Day. But this shouldn't stop our December heatwave, with another round of record warmth expected. The tightening pressure gradients from this shortwave may also bring some breezy winds to our wind prone locations primarily early in the day on Christmas Eve, but cross pressure gradients shouldn't quite be strong enough to require wind highlights, and in house guidance is in agreement keeping the probability of wind gusts 60+ mph less than 50% for Arlington, and lower still for Bordeaux. Finally, the aforementioned moisture and approaching shortwave should spur a few showers across our far western zones overnight into early Christmas, but this should be mostly relegated to the high terrain with low amounts as QPF will be low initially and the bulk of this precipitation should be orographically induced.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 250 AM MST Tue Dec 23 2025

Moving into the long term, Christmas Day will still be very warm for this time of year, with another round of record warmth expected for the day. Highs for portions of the Panhandle are expected to peak in the low 70's for example. Meanwhile the passing shortwave should help to produce some stronger winds, with better chances than compared to Wednesday for some stronger gusts for our wind prone locations, with Arlington peaking at the start of the forecast period at above 60% probability for gusts 60+ mph according to in house guidance. Into Friday and over the weekend, a stronger trough will then move across and should shift our flow to a more northwesterly to northerly direction, helping to alleviate some of the warmth as a cold front passes across the region and briefly battles off the southern US ridge. Highs will stay warm on Friday though, peaking in the 50's to 60's east of the Laramie Range with a bit cooler air to the west with 40's expected. Meanwhile precipitation continues to occur mostly for the mountains and higher terrain through Saturday, though the valleys and nearby plains may see some light rain or mixed snow from the orographic enhancement. A rumble of thunder can't be ruled out near the mountains on Christmas day as some meager instability will be present. Meanwhile the mountains should see some steady snowfall, enough to at least warrant advisories as widespread totals between 6 to 12 inches are anticipated, possibly with some localized higher amounts right at the peaks. And breezy winds should persist as the pressure gradient remains enhanced from this second stronger trough, with periods of near to above high wind warning criteria gusts primarily again for our wind prones, though not nearly to the extent we saw last week and with lower probabilities overall.

By Saturday, temperatures will be much more reasonable for this time of year, as highs drop into the 30's to upper 40's, and by Sunday most locations shouldn't be able to exceed the mid 40's for highs. But into Monday, we'll see mostly benign conditions as the ridging starts to creep back in with with westerly to southwesterly flow returning, and highs will start to reach back up into the upper 40's to around 50 in some locations for our eastern zones as dry conditions and abnormal warmth looks to return just beyond the long term. Overall there is moderate to high confidence (60-70%) in the long term, with ensemble clusters mostly in agreement on the expected pattern, but some variances begin to arise late in the forecast thanks to a deep low that will sit off of California and will influence how the ridge re-strengthens over us depending on the intensity of this feature.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1030 AM MST Tue Dec 23 2025

VFR conditions expected for the forecast period. Today's winds will be southwest at RWL and LAR, and south elsewhere. Look for gusts of 30 to 40 knots at KRWL and 20 to 30 knots elsewhere. Winds will ease near sunset but LLWS may develop overnight, particularly in Wyoming. Stronger southwest wind gusts return to Wyoming terminals Wednesday morning.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...None. NE...None.