textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- High Wind Warning remains in effect through Monday evening.

- The Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 5PM Monday, with very poor overnight humidity recovery expected overnight tonight into early Monday morning. Worst conditions expected Monday afternoon.

- Progressive pattern expected through the week with better chances of precipitation, but temperatures remaining above normal through the period.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 115 PM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

Breezy conditions ongoing this afternoon primarily along the I-80 corridor. Occasional gusts up to 61 mph have been reported through the Arlington/Elk Mountain wind prone area. These gusts are expected to continue, sporadically, throughout the afternoon and evening hours. The High Wind Warning for Arlington does not go into effect until 11PM tonight, when 58+ mph gusts are expected to become more frequent and expand to more locations within this area. Temperatures this afternoon wil max out in the low-50s to mid-60s with breezy winds expected at most locations. Afternoon minimum humidity values are dropping towards the 15 to 25% range, with the lowest values east of the Laramie Range along the I-80 corridor into the southern Nebraska Panhandle. Red Flag Warnings remain in effect through 5PM Monday evening, with the worst conditions expected Monday afternoon.

Overnight tonight, 700mb gradients will begin to strengthen as a 700mb low traverses across southern Canada and deepens as it moves east, as well as a weak 700mb shortwave passing through eastern Montana and western South Dakota. As gradients continue to strengthen through the morning hours Monday, a 65 to 70kt jet will develop across the Laramie Range. GFS omega fields suggest very strong downward omega values along the Laramie Range, especially in northern portions of the Range in southern Converse County. In house random forest guidance continues to suggest about a 60-70% chance of high winds at Arlington and 50-55% chance at Bordeaux. One interesting thing about this event in that the downward omega values do not spread out away from the Laramie Range, rather stay fairly close, especially across southern portions of the Range near the I- 80 Summit. The 700mb jet will strengthen to 50-55kts near the I-80 Summit, but with downward omega values anchored to the Laramie Range, confidence is not high for the Foothills area to reach high wind criteria. Confidence is higher in the I-80 Summit area to reach high wind criteria, so decided to upgrade the I-80 Summit to a High Wind Warning and leave the Foothill in a High Wind Watch. A quick upgrade may be needed later today into the overnight hours, especially if the Foothills start approaching high wind criteria.

Very strong winds are expected to continue through Monday afternoon, as a 700mb cold front pushes through the region starting around 21Z Monday and getting hung up across the southeastern portions of the CWA around 06Z Monday night. As a result, overnight low temperatures Monday into Tuesday morning will be cooler, likely in the 20s everywhere, with low chances for another night in the 30s and 40s. This front looks to be fairly dry, with no major precipitation expected to accompany it. Unfortunately, this means very dry conditions will persist throughout the day Monday. With high winds near the Laramie Range resulting in downslope warming and drying, conditions will remain favorable for rapid fire starts and spread. Minimum relative humidity values are expected to be in the 14 to 20% range east of the Laramie Range, with the worst conditions along the I-80 corridor Monday afternoon. With downsloping continuing overnight, poor humidity recoveries are expected, likely only in the 35-40% range. With very gusty winds expected everywhere with the front and the high winds, plus dry conditions and poor overnight humidity recovery the Red Flag Warning will remain in effect through 5PM Monday. Conditions begin to improve through Monday night when humidity recovers into the 75-90% range behind the front.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 115 PM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

Models in better agreement since yesterday on the overall pattern as a progressive flow will promote better chances of precipitation across portions of the region, primarily the intermountain area of course, but without a strong cold air surge and dry surface conditions east of the Laramie range, winter-like weather will remain all but absent through next weekend. Tuesday starts in the wake of a quick moving shortwave that will lead to brief transient ridging into the middle of the week. The aforementioned shortwave alongside southwesterly flow should promote a small surge of moisture and increasing precipitation chances, primarily for our mountain zones. While surface moisture may at times wrap around into locations east of our mountainous areas, overall surface RH values are expected to remain on the low side, inhibiting better chances of precipitation despite some favorable moisture aloft. The good news for our mountains is that several inches of snow should occur during the mid-week timeframe, helping to alleviate some of the missing snowpack for the area. But with the incoming ridging and warmer southwesterly flow, expect more springlike temperatures to hit our area. Tuesday will be around or just above normal, but highs on Wednesday climb back into the upper 40's to upper 50's, possibly even eclipsing 60 degrees once again in a few locations. Also on Wednesday, in house guidance is hinting at another possibility of stronger winds, but currently keeps probabilities on the low side, with Arlington only peaking at around 30% at this time.

But as mentioned this ridge will be transient in nature, and by Thursday we'll see broad troughing overtake the area leading to temperatures relaxing by a few degrees, but still at least 4-8 degrees above normal. Without a stronger forcing mechanism, some scattered precipitation may be possible leading into the weekend, but activity will be light in nature and brief at best. Saturday sees another transient ridge moving into the region which may promote another round of stronger temperatures just beyond the long term, with a jet beginning to encroach as well and possibly our next shot at higher winds. While some areas should get some relief from our lack of moisture, overall unseasonable warmth remains the primary message as we continue with our lack of winter through next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 424 PM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for all sites for the duration of this TAF period. Winds and LLWS are the main hazards, gusty winds will continue this afternoon with some calming for KCYS, KLAR, KSNY and KAIA. However, LLWS increases for all terminals, except KSNY, through Monday morning. LLWS comes to an end Monday afternoon, but winds ramp back up with gusts 30-40 knots across all terminals.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST Monday for WYZ430>433. High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST Monday for WYZ101-106-110. High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Monday for WYZ116. High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for WYZ117. NE...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST Monday for NEZ434>437.