textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- A High Wind Watch remains in effect for the typical wind prones across southeast Wyoming from 6 AM through 3 PM Wednesday.

- A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for many locations east of the Laramie Range from noon to 8 PM on Thursday.

- A potent weather disturbance will produce windy, colder, and wetter weather Thursday night into Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 222 AM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026

What a difference a day makes, the system that impacted the CWA yesterday will be a distant memory as it moves off to the east. A transient ridge will build, bringing blue skies and warmer temperatures. So, highs today will soar into the upper 50s west of the Laramie Range and 60s/70s to the east with lows Wednesday night dipping into the 40s across the region. The only headline for today will be the potential of a low end high wind event in our known wind prones across southeast Wyoming. The 700MB jet cranks up this morning, peaking around 50 knots. However, per the GFS, subsidence is meager, so these winds may not mix all the way down to the surface. In-house guidance agrees and shows generally less than 40% chance of high winds. So, due to low confidence, the High Wind Watch will remain as is from 6AM this morning to 3PM this afternoon. Thereafter, winds will be on a slight downward trend.

Onto Thursday, well, some changes are in-store and that beautiful bright light in the sky will become shrouded by clouds. First thing first, lets take a gander at the upper-levels, a positively tilted trough will slide east across the Intermountain West to our doorstep by Thursday night, this is the feature that will bring the changes that I briefly mentioned earlier. Ahead of this, with southwesterly flow aloft, highs will soar back to around 60 for many locations west of I-25 and the upper 60s to upper 70s east of the corridor. By Thursday afternoon through the nighttime hours that's when things will change. Embedded in this trough is a cold front that will dive southeast across the CWA, bringing increased chances precipitation and much colder temps. So, by Thursday afternoon precipitation will begin to enter our CWA across our northwest forecast zones. As we progress into the nighttime hours, the cold front continues to slide southeast, as it does, precipitation chances increase. The other thing of note, as upper-level flow turns northwesterly, a colder airmass will spread into our CWA. Taking a look at 700MB temps, they tank into the -12 to -14 degree C range by Friday morning, so expect low 20s to around 30 as you begin your day. During Thursday night, as temperature tank, precipitation will transition to snow. As a result, northwest of a line from Laramie to Chadron, many locations could wake up to a dusting to an inch of snow. I know chances of snow may excite you, but we can't forget about winds. Another potential high wind event along with elevated fire concerns late Thursday morning into afternoon hours. We will have the 700MB jet ramp up once again early Thursday morning to around 60 knots, primarily over the Laramie Range. With weak subsidence in place, these winds will have a hard time mixing down to the surface. With low probs, via in-house guidance, no headlines as of now. However, it appears that it will become breezy which will increase the fire weather threat as min RH values dip into the 10 to 15 percent range east of the I-25 corridor, stay tuned...

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 1255 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Our ridge starts to become flattened and pushed off to the east Thursday. A cold low pressure system will start to push into the Intermountain west as it dives southeast from the Saskatchewan/Albertan Providences bringing a colder airmass with it. A cold front will start push through the Southeast Wyoming area late afternoon to early evening. Models show it being a pretty stout front with temps in the 50's in front and 30's behind it. However, due to the timing of the front a fire weather watch was issued for Goshen, Platte, Laramie, and the Nebraska Panhandle counties as RH values look likely to drop between 10 and 15 percent for the afternoon coupled with the breezy winds between 20 to 25 mph. Converse and Niobrara weren't included because there is uncertainty with how low the RH will drop before the cold front pushes through raising the humidity above possible threshold values. There will be some showers associated with this front as well. Looking at the model soundings the mid-levels will saturate first and produce virga at first. But the virga should reach the ground into the overnight period and likely come down as snow as we saturate the lower levels and below freezing. 700mb temperatures look to drop to about -13C making it for a colder Wyoming Friday with temps in the 30's while the Panhandle looks to be in the low 40's. The snow showers will continue into Friday as the pressure system start to makes its way into the Northern Plains. Friday night will be the peak of the cold airmass as overnight temperatures drop into the teens and twenties. Another ridge will also start to push into the Intermountain west late Friday afternoon keeping us in Northwesterly flow filtering in that colder air from the North and tightening our pressure gradient creating a cold breezy wind as well. Total accumulations from the Thursday/Friday system looks to be around 3-4 inches in areas west of the I-25 corridor, 2-3 inches along the I-25 corridor, and about 1-2 inches east of the corridor. For the Nebraska Panhandle it looks to be roughly 0.5 to 1 inch of snow with some 1-2 inch areas closer to the WY/NE border. By Saturday morning the system should be far enough east to stop snowing while the ridge moves further east as well. The airmass over the intermountain west will gradually warm up but the Saturday temps will still be in the 40's and 50's. Sunday, warm temps in the 60/70's east of I-25 return with mostly clear skies in the afternoon. This warmer ridge is currently expected to last until Tuesday morning before another shortwave could possibly hit the Intermountain West again.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1254 PM MDT Wed Apr 15 2026

The flow aloft will become westerly today, then turn southwest tonight.

Confidence is high, due to a ridge of high pressure aloft, with scattered to broken clouds from 12000 to 15000 feet, and also moderate confidence in winds gusting to 40 knots at the Wyoming TAF sites until 01Z, then to 30 knots until 15Z and to 38 knots after 15Z Thursday. Winds expected to gust to 35 knots for the Nebraska TAFS until 02Z, and again to 28 knots after 15Z Thursday. A reduction in pressure gradient and decoupling will help reduce the winds overnight.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for WYZ417>419- 430>433. High Wind Watch from midnight MDT tonight through Thursday evening for WYZ104-109-110-113. High Wind Watch until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for WYZ106-110- 116-117. NE...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for NEZ434>437.