textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered rain and snow showers in Carbon and Albany counties this morning may result in a few slick spots along the I-80 corridor and accumulating snow above about 8500 feet in elevation.

- A strong but compact system will bring a chance for rain to the High Plains, mainly Tuesday afternoon and evening.

- Warmer and drier weather returns for Wednesday and Thursday, bringing elevated to critical fire weather conditions and marginally high winds in the wind prone areas.

- A potent weather disturbance will produce windy, colder, and wetter weather for Thursday night and Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 200 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A weak upper-level trough and associated vort max will slide through the CWA today. This feature and its associated energy will increase the threat of precipitation, first across our western zones and then east/northeastward throughout the day. The suite of deterministic hi- res models depict this activity, albeit a bit disorganized and not with the greatest consensus. Because of this, forecast confidence is low due to this disagreement in solutions. In addition, modeled soundings show that the lower atmosphere is dry which will play a role if precipitation actually hits the ground. With all this being said, if you drew a line from Douglas to Chadron, south of this we have generally a 50% chance of precipitation. The greatest threat will be along I-80 from Rawlins to Sidney. At the latter parts of today, near Sidney, some guidance is showing the potential that there could be a few rumbles of thunder. However, instability parameters are meager at best and confidence if this will actually happen remains low. Peering into the world of ensemble guidance, probs greater than 60% of a location getting a tenth or more of liquid precipitation remains across the higher terrain west of Cheyenne and the Nebraska Panhandle. While here locally, unfortunately, Cheyenne has a 40-60% chance of a tenth of liquid precipitation. For the higher elevations, including Laramie, snow showers are a possibility with little to no accumulations expected. Locations above 8K feet may see a few inches of late season snowfall. This system and any precipitation will exit the CWA by Wednesday morning, then expect a quieter day along with plentiful sunshine throughout Wednesday.

Switching gears a bit, lets take a look at temperatures and winds. First temperatures, with 700mb temps in the 0 to -2C range, expect highs this afternoon a tad cooler then previous days with 50s west of I-25 and mid 50s to mid 60s east of the I-25 corridor. And Wednesday, with clearing skies, 700mb temps warm up a bit into the +2 to +4C range, translating to a few degrees warmer across the board. Low temps will reflect a similar pattern, cooler Tuesday night (generally in the 30S) and near 40 for Wednesday night. Regarding winds, mid-level winds today are nothing to write home about, so expect surface winds generally less than 20 mph across the CWA. By early Wednesday morning, the 700mb jet picks right back up to near 50 knots, with the peak over the Laramie Range. However, per the GFS, subsidence is meager so these winds may not mix down to the surface. In-house guidance agrees, and shows generally less than 40% of high winds for our known wind prones along I-25 and I-80. This threat, albeit slim, will be all but over Wednesday afternoon/evening as winds across the region once again will be on a downward trend.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 300 PM MDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Thursday night-Friday...A progressive and sharp trough aloft and its associated cold front move from Idaho and Utah Thursday evening, to western Wyoming late Thursday night, with the cold front passing our counties Thursday night. The trough axis aloft tracks across our counties during the day on Friday. Fairly high confidence in scattered to numerous rain and snow showers spreading from west to east Thursday night, with likely to widespread snow showers Friday afternoon. Much cooler and windy on Friday with maximum temperatures in the mid 30s and 40s. Winter weather highlights may be needed for the mountains and nearby locations.

Saturday...Snow showers will gradually end from west to east early in the day, as the shortwave trough aloft moves into the northern Great Plains states. Strong low and mid level northwest flow will help produce a windy day, with possible high winds for our wind prone locations. Somewhat warmer than Friday with 700 mb temperatures near 6 Celsius.

Sunday...The flow aloft weakens as low amplitude shortwave ridging aloft develops over Wyoming, producing dry conditions and mild temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s with 700 mb temperatures near 2 Celsius.

Monday...Ridging aloft moves over our forecast area, with surface lee troughing over our eastern counties, producing a dry and mild day. 700 mb temperatures near 8 Celsius will yield maximum temperatures in the mid 60s west of I-25, with 70s east of I-25.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 530 AM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Tricky TAF forecast over the next 12 hours with a system moving through the region, due to poor run to run model consistency. KRWL and KCDR may miss the bulk of the storm and remain VFR through this TAF period. Overall, low confidence in coverage of precipitation, so there are PROB30 groups for KBFF and KAIA. Initially, KCYS and KSNY have PROB30 groups, but since these terminals are closer to the storm, confidence grows with precipitation impacting aviation operations. KLAR, overall, has the best chance of seeing precip, some of which will be snow. Thunderstorms are possible for KSNY this afternoon/evening, if one goes over the terminal, expect gusty and erratic winds. After 03Z Wednesday, conditions will improve as the storm system moves out of the region.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...None. NE...None.