textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Critical fire weather conditions are ongoing this afternoon due to gusty winds, low humidity, and dry fuels. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the Nebraska panhandle through 5 PM.

- Another round of high winds are expected in the wind prone areas tonight, then spreading to east central Wyoming and northwest Nebraska during the day on Sunday. High Wind Watches have been upgraded to High Wind Warnings.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 243 PM MST Sat Jan 17 2026

Forecast remains largely on track as we see warm air advection prior to the next clipper system dropping down across the region into Sunday. For temperatures, we should see highs back to near normal on Sunday, just enough warmth to bring us out of these cooler conditions before dropping again on Monday. Meanwhile, winds remain elevated across our wind prone locations thanks to the enhanced pressure gradient and some breezy winds aloft, though the strongest winds look to remain further northeast from our usual gusty locations. But cross gradients should support another high wind event for the wind prones, as Craig to Casper values exceed 65 meters, and in house guidance shows a 60% probability of High Wind Warning level gusts (58+ mph). Meanwhile the aforementioned high level winds manifest across our northeastern zones into tomorrow morning, with 700mb speeds of 60-70 knots present, and favorable downward vectors bringing these speeds to the surface. With all of this combined, High Wind Watches were upgraded this afternoon, valid beginning this evening for the wind prone locations, and tomorrow morning for eastern Wyoming and the northern Nebraska Panhandle.

The clipper system producing this surge in activity should also sweep across and bring a quick hit of moisture and chances of some precipitation across the area as well. High resolution guidance has been fairly indifferent to our chances, producing a scattered weak snow shower or two across the area outside of the high terrain. Still, with how underwhelming guidance can be in regards to these type of events, kept a similar POP chance and snow profile as the previous shift, albeit slightly reduced in accumulations. Finally, conditions should decline into Monday morning, but widespread cloud cover should help to prevent significant heat loss and keep our lows chilly behind the quick shot of cold air, but not as cold as they could be. And with winds notably less than the past several days, wind chills shouldn't be as frigid with Cold Weather products unlikely.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 243 PM MST Sat Jan 17 2026

Long Term.... A possible pattern change looks to come mid to late week as the Ridge anchored over the west coast looks to break down allowing the Intermountain west to change from our Northwesterly flow to a westerly flow mid week and then a southwesterly flow by the end of the work week. Tuesday, a weak disturbance looks to pass through the Intermountain West as we transition from Northwest to Westerly as the ridge starts to break down. Some arctic air does filter down into our region dropping 700mb temperatures from -2C to - 8C over the Intermountain West and High Plains. This arctic airmass will bring more winter like temperatures to the region instead of our tropical-ish 60's we had in December and beginning of January. There could be some weak snow showers as the wave pushes through but its pretty much looking like it will be isolated to our mountain peaks for now. Meanwhile the upper low looks to keep spinning over the Great Lakes continuing our high winds intermittently throughout the week. Towards the end of the week a system looks to push through the Intermountain West giving us potential widespread snow chances across the forecast area. However, looking at cluster analysis the ensembles disagree to what magnitude the ridge breaks down which could ultimately alter the course of the system and could potentially increase or decrease our snow totals. So the potential system at the end of the week is something to keep an eye on for potential snow accumulations and storm track.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 429 PM MST Sat Jan 17 2026

Cloud decks came in between 6000-8000ft for southeast Wyoming, and 8,000-9,000ft for the Panhandle terminals. A low level jet looks to setup overnight around 2,000ft after 00z and continue through 12z tomorrow. Low level jet Peak winds look to be around 40 to 50 kts. Peak surface winds look to be around 16z for KCYS and the Nebraska Panhandle terminals. Some airports may see up to 45 knots for the gusts during that time. Clouds will slowly be moving through in the evening tomorrow. VFR conditions will prevail during the TAF period.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 5 PM MST Sunday for WYZ102. High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST Sunday for WYZ106. High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST Sunday for WYZ110-116. NE...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NEZ434>437. High Wind Warning from 6 AM to 5 PM MST Sunday for NEZ002-003- 095-096.