textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- A multi-day Red Flag Warning has been issued for the western Nebraska Panhandle and portions of southeast Wyoming through 5PM Monday. Very dry conditions and gusty winds will combine to produce critical fire weather conditions in these areas, with relatively poor overnight humidity recoveries.

- High winds look to return to the region as early as Monday, with very strong gusts likely.

- Progressive pattern expected through the week, with model uncertainty rising late in the period.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 214 PM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

Mostly benign, dry weather expected over the next few days as a transitional pattern develops aloft and a diffuse upper-leve ridge attempts to nose into the region. Primary forecast concerns over the next several days will be critical fire weather conditions east of the Laramie Range, along with a potential high wind event on Monday.

For Sunday, winds will start decreasing a bit as 700mb gradients weaken and downward omega values taper off. A 40 to 45kt jet will be in place Sunday morning and afternoon and with the modest downward omega values also in place, breezy conditions are expected. High winds are not anticipated at this time due to a lack of support for the 700mb jet. After a day of dry, downsloping today (Saturday) and continued modest downsloping on Sunday, very dry conditions will continue with afternoon minimum relative humidity values dropping into the 15 to 20% once again. While winds are expected to be more on the lighter side, the dry conditions and poor overnight recoveries into Monday morning, critical fire weather conditions still remain likely for the next several days. With afternoon temperatures in the low- to mid-60s east of the Laramie Range, condition will be supportive of rapid fire development and spread.

Similar to Sunday, Monday will bring another round of critical fire weather conditions, likely being the worst day. Overnight recoveries Sunday night into Monday morning will struggle into the 30s and 40s, with afternoon humidity values on Monday dropping back into the 13 to 17% range. Zonal flow throughout the atmosphere on Monday will lead to very strong winds as 700mb gradients strengthen across the Laramie Range due to a low moving across southern Canada. With westerly winds expected, the atmosphere will be primed for another downslope wind event, leading to even drier conditions east of the Laramie Range. A 65 to 70kt 700mb jet looks to develop Monday morning, aiding in stronger downslope drying and weaker overnight humidity recoveries. Surface pressure gradients will be around 3 to 5mb along the Laramie Range, combined with a 70kt 700mb jet, and very strong downward omega values, high winds look increasing likely on Monday. Given the very strong winds, very dry conditions, poor overnight humidity recoveries, and lack of precipitation, the Red Flag Warning has been extended through 5PM Monday for all Nebraska fire zones and many zones east of the Laramie Range in southeast Wyoming.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 214 PM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

Long term is a messy forecast period that starts with good model agreement, but by the end of the period falls apart under a progressive pattern that should see at least a few chances at precipitation, albeit more rain or a mix into snow as temperatures remain above normal. Monday begins as a the jet sets in over the region for the day alongside a passing shortwave. For winds, pressure gradients have continued to rise across the region, while 700mb forecast winds are promoting a 70+ knot jet with a favorable and impressive downward forcing component. In house guidance also favors high winds for our wind prone locations, with probabilities up to 60-70%, leading to highlights becoming likely for at least our usual locations. Moisture begins to increase as this system moves across, and while forcing won't be the best and downsloping does produce a drier near surface layer moving further east of the mountains, guidance is beginning to favor at least some scattered precipitation extending into Tuesday with highest probabilities for the mountains and intermountain region. Finally Monday should be our last day of significantly warmer than average highs, with 50's to upper 60's still possible for the day.

While temperatures will then drop moving into the middle and end of the work week, without a strong cold airmass in the region, we'll only see conditions drop back to several degrees above normal, with another chance at 40's to 50's on Wednesday in between passing systems. Analysis of models and their ensembles show some agreement remaining through Wednesday and Thursday as the transient ridge passes across with a Pacific trough moving into the southwestern US, but by Friday guidance falls off the rails again and ensembles are unsure on how to resolve the multiple features we'll see influencing the forecast area. For now, expectation is that we'll have our quick cool down with a brief rise again on Wednesday, but moving into the end of the week it becomes a bit more uncertain on how much of a second cool down we'll see as the NBM shows anywhere from near normal to 10 degrees above for the region, and how these systems evolve also affects our precipitation chances. Nonetheless, it appears that the strong ridging that we've been seeing for the past several weeks may finally be on the decline, hopefully allowing us to catch up on precipitation and, for those who enjoy it, more winter-like conditions.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1020 PM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

No aviation weather concerns across all terminals for this TAF period as VFR conditions continue. Winds may pose the only real threat, as the southeast Wyoming terminals will see winds ramp up by 17Z Sunday with gusts to 35 knots. While the Nebraska terminals, except KAIA and KCDR, will see gusty winds build by 19Z Sunday, not as strong, to 25 knots. High clouds will remain with bases generally 10K feet or more.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST Monday for WYZ430>433. NE...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST Monday for NEZ434>437.