textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Next widespread high wind event expected to begin Tuesday and Wednesday, with periods of very windy conditions continuing through Friday. High Wind Watches and Warnings are currently in place for the usual southeast Wyoming wind prone zones and the adjacent zones.

- Mountain snowfall, with some rain/snow mix across the lower elevations, expected late Tuesday and into Wednesday. 8 to 14 inches of snow possible across the mountains. Winter Weather Advisories are in place.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 318 PM MST Mon Feb 23 2026

An active, mild and windy short term is expected as a series of weak disturbances move across the area over the next few days. Current observations this afternoon already show 40 to 55 MPH wind gusts across the Arlington and Bordeaux zones. Winds in the wind prones will continue to increase this evening and overnight as a strong 250 mb jet flattens out into the CWA. High Wind Warnings for the wind prone areas start this evening, with clear signals for strong winds this evening through Wednesday evening. As the jet aloft flattens out overnight, 700 mb winds will ramp up to about 60 kts over the usual southeast Wyoming wind prones, leading to 60 to 70 MPH gusts.

By Tuesday morning, MSLP gradients will be quite steep along and west of the Laramie Range. This is in part due to the strong jet as well as a weak vorticity max moving across the area during the day. CAG to CPR height gradients will also increase above 70 meters, facilitating strengthening winds aloft. 700 mb winds will max out at about 70 to 75 kts over the Laramie Range, with widespread 50 to 60 kts over much of the rest of the CWA. As a result, high winds will likely spread outside of the wind prones, and into the wind prone adjacent areas like Carbon and Albany Counties and the Interstate 25 corridor. Subsidence is strong across much of the CWA as well, helping send these winds down to the surface. In- house guidance is also pinging these areas with a 40 to 60 percent chance of hitting high winds. Given the increased confidence, upgraded the remaining High Wind Watches to Warnings, and added the Laramie Valley and central Laramie County to the Warning. Warnings start Tuesday morning and continue through Wednesday evening. The strongest wind gusts will be in the typical wind prone areas as a very strong mountain wave signature is evident in the omega field and even the 500 mb thickness. Wind gusts here could exceed 80 MPH. Outside of the wind prones, wind gusts up to 70 MPH will be possible. Also added Goshen and eastern Laramie Counties to a High Wind Watch starting late tomorrow morning as high winds could bleed over into these zones as well.

The disturbance that is semi-responsible for the wind will also bring some precipitation to the CWA late Tuesday afternoon and overnight. Mild temperatures during the afternoon will likely lead to precipitation starting out as rain in the lower elevations, but this may transition to snow overnight. Accumulations for the lower elevations will likely be minimal. Will have to keep an eye on Arlington however due to its proximity to the high terrain. Mountain snow is expected with this disturbance, with most accumulation expected to fall overnight. Snow amounts of 8 to 14 inches are forecast, with locally higher amounts above 10000 feet. Winter Weather Advisories are in place for the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges starting Tuesday afternoon and continuing through Wednesday afternoon. It is worth mentioning that some locations in the High Wind Warnings outside of the wind prones could see a brief break in the winds Tuesday night as winds a loft turn a bit more northwesterly behind this disturbance.

After a (potential) brief break in winds Tuesday night, winds will ramp up once again Wednesday. A similar set up is expected with MSLP gradients compressing ahead of an incoming front. Winds aloft will be just as strong as Tuesday with very strong subsidence and mountain wave activity. Winds could quite possible spread outside of southeast Wyoming and into the Nebraska panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. As a result, went ahead and issued some High Wind Watches for the southern Nebraska panhandle. Watches may need to be expanded in both Wyoming and Nebraska, but confidence is low at this time. Wind gusts will be similar to Tuesday with the wind prones likely seeing 75+ MPH gusts and adjacent areas seeing gusts up to 70 MPH. Winds will (hopefully) ease Wednesday evening as the front moves through the CWA, however, newer runs of the GFS hint at this being a prolonged high wind event for the wind prones that could continue through the end of the week.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 318 PM MST Mon Feb 23 2026

The CWA will remain in a NW flow pattern on the eastern periphery of a ridge this weekend, resulting in above-average temperatures (shocker!) and dry conditions. Thursday and Friday will continue to be windy in the presence of a 50-60 knot 700 mb jet, which will induce a classic mountain wave pattern across the Snowy and Laramie ranges. Model cross-sections indicate closely-packed isentropes at mountain-top, indicating a stable layer which is favorable for strong downsloping winds. However winds aren't entirely perpendicular to the ranges and there is no mean-state critical level (reversal in the wind direction with height), so while it will be windy, winds likely won't be as impressive as Tuesday and Wednesday. Omega fields also show this mountain wave pattern, with strong subsidence leeside of the Laramie Range. As it stands, in-house guidance has the highest probabilities of winds greater than 60 mph overnight Thursday into Friday, with chances diminishing later Friday and into the weekend. With gusty winds, lack of moisture/dry soils given our drought conditions, and relative humidity values less than 20%, fire hazards will need to be monitored at this time particularly in our Nebraska counties.

Flow will become more zonal on Saturday resulting in warm and dry conditions ahead of a shortwave trough that will bring small chances of precipitation to our CWA on Sunday. The forcing for ascent looks to be relatively weak, but PWAT anomalies are progged to be 2-3 standard deviations above climatology, so any help from the shortwave trough or the terrain will result in a few rain and/or snow showers. We remain anomalously warm into early next week as 500 mb heights rise and flow remains out of the WNW. While we might get some meager help regarding moisture on Sunday (here is to hoping), we will remain relatively dry with no significant chances for widespread precipitation in the forecast.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1046 PM MST Mon Feb 23 2026

Winds are starting to kick up for the Southeast Wyoming terminals. Low level wind shear is ranging from 45 to 55kts at 2,000ft across the terminals. After 20z KRWL will start to drop into the low VFR ceilings with expectations to drop into MVFR after 00z. Rain showers are expected after 20z with a brief lull around 02z and possible rain/snow mix after 04z for KRWL. Rain showers are possible for KLAR after 22z and again after 02z. Winds are expected to start gusting here shortly for the Panhandle around 08z.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...High Wind Warning from 5 AM Tuesday to 9 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ104-105-107-109. High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ106-116-117. High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for WYZ108-119. High Wind Warning until 9 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ110. Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 5 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ112-114. High Wind Warning from 8 AM Tuesday to 9 PM MST Wednesday for WYZ115-118. NE...High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for NEZ019-020-054-055.