textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- A widespread hard freeze is expected across both southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska Thursday night into Friday morning.

- Drier and milder weather expected this weekend into early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 135 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Precipitation is tapering off across the area early this afternoon as the system continues to push eastward. With clouds clearing, visible satellite is revealing snowfall in the mountains as well as around the Arlington area and in the Laramie Valley. Temperatures outside of the mountains in these areas will reach the low 40s this afternoon, so some melting is likely. For the eastern half of the forecast area, gusty winds continue. Observations show 30 to 50 MPH wind gusts along the Interstate 25 corridor and eastward into the Nebraska panhandle. Despite temperatures here being in the 40s and 50s, the strong north winds are making for a chilly day. Winds will gradually weaken later this evening, but the cold will remain.

Models have clouds clearing out overnight, with winds becoming calm across southeast Wyoming. With clear skies and calm winds, effective radiational cooling will take place, especially in areas with snow cover. Freeze Warnings are already in place for southeast Wyoming. Lows are expected to drop into the 20 to 25 degree range, with the potential for a few isolated teens in valleys, snow covered, or sheltered locations. It is worth mentioning that these conditions could produce some areas of patchy fog. The Nebraska panhandle was upgraded to a Freeze Warning with this forecast package. Despite the breezier conditions, a reinforcing shot of cold air from a Canadian trough will graze the Nebraska panhandle, dropping temperatures below 30 degrees. It is worth mentioning that many models were likely not capturing the cooling effectively, so nudged overnight lows towards the NBM 25th percentile.

Looking at a pretty quiet day on Friday as upper-level ridging begins to build over the Rockies. It'll start out cold and frosty, but temperatures will gradually warm up throughout the day as warmer air aloft is ushered in. Highs on Friday will be about 10 degrees below average, with temperatures generally in the 50s across the forecast area. Areas with snow cover could be cooler, namely the Laramie Valley. Even though temperatures will be on the seasonably cool side, ample sunshine throughout the day will help cut through some of the chill.

As the upper-level ridge shifts eastward overnight on Friday, mid- level winds will become more westerly. The westerly winds will pose a possible concern for high winds in the typical southeast Wyoming wind prones of Arlington and Bordeaux during the day Saturday. MSLP gradients will steepen along and west of the Laramie Range. CAG to CPR 850 mb gradients also reach the 50 meter range, signaling the potential for gradient driven marginal high winds in the wind prones. 700 mb winds will reach about 40 kts, but subsidence is rather weak and will likely not play a huge role in the winds Saturday into Sunday morning. Wind gusts of at least 40 to 50 MPH will be likely during the day Saturday and into the overnight hours. Westerly winds will help play a role in the warm, above average temperatures expected on Saturday. Downsloping winds will aid 90th percentile 700 mb temperatures in achieving daytime highs in the 70s for areas east of the Laramie Range. To the west, highs in the 60s can be expected. Ample sunshine is once again expected for Saturday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 135 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

The long term will be mostly controlled by high pressure ridging, though several embedded disturbances will help to disrupt this feature from growing stronger and brining much warmer conditions, while modest moisture should bring at least a weak chance of precipitation through this period. The long term starts with upper level high pressure controlling much of the southeastern US and extending up towards our region, while a weak low off of the southwestern California coastline moves inland and up towards the Four Corners region while continuing to weaken. This system, while weak and mostly non-impactful, will at least help to stave off the ridge from strengthening over the region while also bringing a quick and weak shot of moisture that should fuel a few weak upper elevation showers in the region. We will be clearing out on Monday again before flow turns more southerly to southwesterly on Tuesday as a deep Pacific low begins to approach the west coast and then moves inland through the end of the forecast period. This will continue to stream moisture in, allowing for further increasing chances of upslope induced precipitation that will be aided by embedded weak shortwaves within the flow, though once again not expecting significant accumulations from this activity. Under this pattern look for temperatures to remain largely the same through the long term as highs sit generally 5-10 degrees above normal (60's to upper 70's), with portions of eastern Wyoming and the Nebraska Panhandle nearing 80 degrees, but currently not expected to reach this warm. Otherwise, with no significant features present over our area, look for largely benign conditions until likely just beyond the long term into the weekend after next. There is overall moderate to high confidence in the forecast as ensembles and their clusters are largely similar in their expectations of the evolution of this pattern, though discrepancies begin to arise on how quickly the Pacific low at the end of the forecast will move inland, but this shouldn't create drastic changes at least to this forecast period.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 525 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

The system that impacted the region overnight and early this morning pushed off to the east and drying continues; therefore, VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals for the duration of this TAF period. As mentioned earlier, drying commences and thus clouds plaguing most of the sites currently will lift and clear over the next several hours, becoming SKC overnight. Breezy northerly winds will continue for a few more hours with widespread gusts up to 40 knots and then wind down through this evening, becoming variable to less than 10 knots overnight through Friday afternoon.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Friday for WYZ101-102-104>111-113-115>119. NE...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Friday for NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096.