textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning for critical fire weather conditions is in effect for much of southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska Sunday.

- Fire danger will remain elevated to near-critical through at least Tuesday.

- A High Wind Watch has been issued for southeast Wyoming, mainly along and west of the Interstate 25 corridor.

- Moderate to heavy mountain snowfall is expected this from Tuesday through Thursday this week, mainly above 8500 feet. Snowfall is possible over the Plains Wednesday into Thursday, followed by temperatures falling below seasonal averages for the end of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 135 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

Current IR Satellite loop and surface observations show high clouds rapidly moving east across Wyoming at this hour with temperature readings generally in the 20s to low 30s. Some of the more sheltered areas are reporting temps in the teens, but peak cooling should end shortly as the high clouds move into western Nebraska over the next few hours. Overall, tranquil weather expected outside of fire weather concerns. Models continue to show the upper level ridge axis moving over the Front Range today, and then exiting to the east by late tonight and Monday as it flattens out. Dry weather will continue with POP near zero both today and Monday. 700mb temperatures will continue to increase today with models showing temps between 0c to 3c in the afternoon. Record high temperatures are still expected across southeast Wyoming and portions of western Nebraska Sunday afternoon with some areas close to 70 degrees, mainly for locations below 4500 feet. Expect several of these records to be broken. There is still some concern of forecast high cloud cover this afternoon, which may result in mostly cloudy conditions and slightly cooler temperatures. Either way, it should be pleasant with locally windy conditions this afternoon along and west of Interstate 25...but somewhat lower winds east of I-25. Similar temperatures are expected on Monday, but record highs for that date are warmer compared to Sunday (low 70s for most NE panhandle sites). In addition, expect a south wind to develop on Monday due to a developing surface low across northern Wyoming/southern Montana. High temperatures may end up being a few degrees cooler become of this, especially along the Laramie Range, Pine Ridge, and Cheyenne Ridge. Will also hold off on any fire weather headlines for Monday for this same reason in addition to lower wind speeds.

As for winds, the main event will likely be Tuesday (see Long Term). However, models continue to show a clear mountain wave signature Sunday afternoon through late Sunday evening with pretty strong downward Omega on the lee-side of the Sierra Madre, Snowy, and even the Laramie Range. In-house wind guidance has not increased probabilities, nor wind speeds, in these areas, so kept winds as is for now. In fact, winds have eased somewhat aloft, so kept gusts between 35 to 45 MPH at this time. Surface winds and winds aloft will ease a bit on Monday before Tuesday's event.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 1252 AM MST Sun Feb 15 2026

Update...Previous forecast discussion for Tuesday and Wednesday is on track with a few additions. A HIGH WIND WATCH has been issued for most of south central Wyoming and east central Wyoming for early Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening with gusts of 70 MPH possible.

Models and ensembles continue to advertise the High Wind threat on Tuesday for central Wyoming. Therefore, issued a High Wind Watch to include most of the lower elevations of Carbon and Albany counties. Added Converse and Platte counties, which may have the best chance of seeing wind gust over 70 MPH due to mountain wave activity. In-house wind guidance shows probabilities getting close to 80 to 90 percent for Bordeaux and east Platte County. Not as confident further south and east (east of the Interstate 25 corridor) since models and in-house wind guidance has backed off on forecast wind speeds and delayed some of the timing until much later in the day. Lower confidence for most of western Nebraska for late Tuesday afternoon and evening as the core of the highest winds may lift north of this region, with a secondary core expected later Tuesday night out of the northwest. Model Omega from the GFS, NAM, and ECMWF isn't all that impressive for the Nebraska panhandle, so will keep winds near criteria for now.

Previous discussion...Issued at 330 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

A parade of storm systems will continue through much of the week ahead, keeping fairly active weather in the picture for our area. The primary hazards will be fire weather and strong winds on Tuesday into Wednesday, and then possibly another system with more moisture available Wednesday into Thursday.

A powerful upper level trough will push inland from the Pacific heading into Tuesday. A moisture laden jet stream will push up against our mountains, likely leading to a period of moderate to heavy orographic snowfall in the Sierra Madre and Snowy Ranges. Southwest flow aloft will support strong lee cyclogenesis over northeast Wyoming. Upwards of 90% of ensemble members have the surface low to our north, giving fairly high confidence in westerly downslope flow for the entirety of the High Plains on Tuesday. Winds may start off southwest to south Tuesday morning, but the lee cyclone to our north will begin to push eastward around midday, dragging the surface trough to the east as well. As this occurs, expect strong winds to overspread nearly the entire area Tuesday afternoon. Spread still exists between the ECMWF ensemble system and the GEFS, with the GEFS mean 700-mb wind over KCYS Tuesday afternoon around 55 knots and the ECMWF ensemble mean around 45 knots. The primary discrepancy appears to be the southern extent of the strong winds aloft, as both systems are in good agreement showing 700-mb winds exceeding 50 knots over Converse and Niobrara counties.

As of now, confidence is high in high winds for the wind prone areas and adjacent zones in Carbon, Albany, Converse, and Platte counties. This is near certainty already for the wind prone areas, and the main question is just how strong can the winds get. The most likely scenario at this time is a middle-tier high wind event for these areas with gusts of mainly 65 to 75 mph as high wind parameters are not quite off the charts yet, and there is not a consistent signal for a mountain top inversion supporting significant wave breaking. Confidence is medium for Laramie, Goshen, and Niobrara counties, where the flow aloft is not as consistent amongst ensembles, but most models show fairly strong subsidence. The lowest confidence is in the Nebraska panhandle, where both the availability of subsidence and the flow aloft are more in question. However, the probability for high winds has still increased from prior forecasts, hovering around 50-60% for the northern panhandle, and 20-30% for the southern panhandle. While temperatures will not be as warm as Sunday and Monday, Tuesday will still bring near critical fire danger with dewpoints mainly in the teens or even single digits. As fuels remain critically dry grass fires will have the potential to spread very rapidly in the presence of these strong winds. Due to the downslope flow, precipitation will likely remain very limited along and east of the I-25 corridor. PoPs were decreased from the NBM to remove the mention of rain and snow from the forecast. Our far northern zones north of roughly Douglas to Chadron can still get precipitation in northwest flow, so retained a chance for rain/snow there.

The first upper level low will push to our east Tuesday night, while a strong pressure gradient remains in place over the plains, keeping winds elevated. The second upper level low will be right on the heels of the first, pushing into the area during the day on Wednesday. The mountains may not even get much of a break in snowfall before the next surge in orographic moisture moves in. This trough will have a more zonally oriented jet streak aloft than the first, which, when combined with a surface high sliding down from the north on the backside of the first trough, will likely support lee cyclogenesis further south. In fact, a narrow majority of ensemble members show the surface cyclone developing over northeast Colorado, which is favorable positioning for High Plains precipitation. The caveat is that many show a secondary surface low over central Wyoming (perhaps in the Wind River valley), which could keep westerly to southwesterly surface winds in place over Carbon, Albany, and Laramie counties and thus suppress precipitation. As of now, confidence is highest in seeing measurable snowfall in the mountains, and for areas of the Plains north of the North Platte River valley. Colder air will work in behind the second system, pushing temperatures actually below seasonal averages which is quite rare this season. Extreme cold is not expected, but highs in the 20s and 30s look like a good bet for Thursday through Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1002 PM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

VFR conditions expected through the entire 06Z TAF period with only a few high-level clouds expected overnight into the day tomorrow. Mostly light winds overnight before the Wyoming terminals start to increase with gusts between 25 and 35 kts possible. Winds begin to decrease after sunset.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ417-418-428>433. High Wind Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon for WYZ101-106-107-115. High Wind Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday evening for WYZ104-105-109>111-113.

NE...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this afternoon for NEZ434>437.