textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Mountain snowfall will continue through Thursday morning with light snow spilling into the I-80 corridor between Cheyenne and Rawlins.

- While temperatures will remain above seasonal averages for much of the week ahead, there will be occasional chances for light precipitation.

- High winds are possible Tuesday in our wind prones across southeast Wyoming.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 234 AM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

Low-level water vapor shows the Low pressure system still spinning over California still at 2am. Pacific moisture is being funneled into the Intermountain West at the mid and lower levels of the atmosphere. NAEFS shows the 90-97th IVT percentile over the majority of the Nebraska Panhandle and portions of Laramie and Goshen county. Even though the IVT values dives south in Colorado and Kansas, there should still be sufficient moisture to utilize and squeeze out a few more inches of snow for the mountains and some light rain mainly along I-80 for the lower elevations with the help of some weak shortwaves. Some snotels have already verified our Winter storm warning with 13 inch accumulations but most have around 8-10 inches with 8 hours left. Radar shows 30dbz echoes over the mountains likely indicating snowfall has once again resumed. Low pops were extended to through the southern half of Platte, Goshen, and Scotts Bluff counties based off the average composite reflectivities of Hi- Res models. Following a couple vort-maxes and weak warm air advection aloft these showers should push eastward in the lower elevations by the late afternoon/evening time today. In the overnight hours there will be a lull in precipitation chances for the forecast area waiting for the next shortwave to move through the region. Around 12z Friday the wave should arrive to the Intermountain west to revive precipitation chances for Carbon County and the Mountainous regions of southern Albany county. Model soundings show a pretty stout dry layer in the boundary levels in the lower elevations east of I-25. However, collocated with the wave is a stream of vorticity that may provide enough synoptic forcing couple with a few plumes of moisture at the 700mb level that may squeeze out the last bit of moisture. But the added pops were kept low at 15 to 20 percent for Friday afternoon and evening.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 310 PM MST Wed Feb 11 2026

At the start of the long term period, a weak upper-level trough will slide across the CWA, keeping chances of precipitation in the forecast through Friday night. As we progress in the long term, this trough and associated precipitation will move out of the CWA by Saturday morning as ridging nudges back in, dominating weather conditions through Monday morning. Some changes are in store by Tuesday as troughing begins to push back into the CWA, increasing precipitation chances, mainly across our western forecast zones, and winds in our known wind prones in southeast Wyoming. In the meantime, the risk of high winds remains low Friday through Monday with meager mid-level support. The same can't be said for Tuesday as a stout 700mb jet, nearing 70 knots, sets up across the CWA along with negative Omega (GFS) that will mix these winds down to the surface. So, what does this mean with surface winds? Well, in-house guidance suggests a high wind event with widespread probs in the 40 to 60 percent range across our wind prones in southeast Wyoming with a few locations topping out near 80%. This is in agreement with ensemble guidance having a 70% chance of gusts greater than 50 mph with some members suggesting a 50% chance of gusts greater than 60 mph. With the current forecast, this is not reflected in it as it is based off of the lower end of guidance. This will be monitored and over the next few days will be adjusted to reflect the latest probabilistic guidance suggesting a high wind event on Tuesday. Then by Wednesday, at the tail end of the forecast period, you'll be thinking what winds as they will be a memory with the upper-level support pushing off to the east.

The other thing of concern in the extended, as we dry out over the weekend and the uptick in winds by early next week, is the increasing threat of fire weather conditions across portions of the CWA, especially from Cheyenne and points east. A limiting factor could be any precipitation that may have fallen the preceding days, but with min RH values forecast to drop below 20% along with dry fuels and gusty winds, fire weather concerns rapidly increase Sunday into Tuesday of next week. So, there may be the need for another long duration Red Flag Warning in this time frame, stay tuned to the forecast for future updates.

Lets shift our attention to temperatures in the extended and what we can expect. Aloft, we will see 700mb temps climbing to around -2 degrees C Friday/Saturday and a bit warmer Sunday/Monday, soaring to around +4 degrees C. So, closer to reality, surface highs Friday/Saturday will top out in the mid 40s west of I-25 and low to upper 50s east of the corridor. A tad warmer Sunday/Monday as highs top out near 50 degrees over the higher terrain west of I-25 and in the 60s elswhere. While lows dip into the 20s to near 30 through the long term period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 440 AM MST Thu Feb 12 2026

There are some radar returns heading their way East towards KLAR for some possible -RASN in the next hour. Otherwise after 20z -RASN is going to start affecting the Southeast Wyoming Terminals KRWL, KLAR, and KCYS. Multiple showers are suppose to move through from the southwest through the evening. There is low confidence these showers will make it into the Panhandle but by 01z they could move over KSNY if they last according to Hi-res models. Clouds are expected to stay VFR over the Panhandle but may be MVFR to low VFR in Southeast Wyoming. Winds are expected to be rather light expect when under a shower across the terminals.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Winter Storm Warning until 11 AM MST this morning for WYZ112- 114. NE...None.