textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- A multi-day Red Flag Warning has been issued for the western Nebraska Panhandle and portions of southeast Wyoming through 5PM Monday. Very dry conditions and gusty winds will combine to produce critical fire weather conditions in these areas, with relatively poor overnight humidity recoveries.

- High winds return to region tonight into Monday morning with wind gusts up to 80 mph possible.

- Progressive pattern expected through the week, with model uncertainty rising late in the period.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 449 AM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

Mid-level water vapor shows a mostly occluded low moving southeast into Northeast Wyoming and into South Dakota to slightly compress our pressure gradient to give us breezy conditions through this afternoon. Model soundings remain dry in the lower levels with more moisture advecting in the mid to upper levels. No precipitation is expected to develop from the system passing right past our forecast area. Late tonight an upper level trough pushes across the Canadian/US Border. This pushes a shortwave through the Intermountain west tightening the 700mb pressure gradient even more. The most severe winds look to be early in the morning as the 700mb jet intensifies to 75 knots between 12 and 15z over the Northern Laramie Range. Subsident flow also increases during this time to mix down these faster winds to the surface. The 00z run for our in house algorithm paints a 40 to 60 percent probability for Converse county near Douglas and the Bordeaux wind prone area. It also paints a 60 to 80 percent probability of High winds for the Arlington and Shirley Basin/ Muddy Gap area. To further the confidence of a high wind event the Craig to Casper Height gradient also increases to above 50 meters at 03z with peak height gradients near 70 meters at 06z. Later in the morning the 700mb jet looks to shift south slightly placing weaker 50-60 knot winds over the Southern Laramie Summit and Foothills area. With the GFS omega fields showing sufficient subsident flow, its possible those winds could mix down and develop high winds for the Summit and Foothill areas in addition to the wind prone areas. The 700mb jet looks to shift back north around 18z before decreasing in strength through the afternoon and evening. Another reinforcing trough will push through the Intermountain West. There looks to be a little moisture accompanying this reinforcing trough to develop some precipitation chances early Monday evening and into the overnight period.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 449 AM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

Long term is a messy forecast period that starts with good model agreement, but by the end of the period falls apart under a progressive pattern that should see at least a few chances at precipitation, albeit more rain or a mix into snow as temperatures remain above normal. Monday begins as a the jet sets in over the region for the day alongside a passing shortwave. For winds, pressure gradients have continued to rise across the region, while 700mb forecast winds are promoting a 70+ knot jet with a favorable and impressive downward forcing component. In house guidance also favors high winds for our wind prone locations, with probabilities up to 60-70%, leading to highlights becoming likely for at least our usual locations. Moisture begins to increase as this system moves across, and while forcing won't be the best and downsloping does produce a drier near surface layer moving further east of the mountains, guidance is beginning to favor at least some scattered precipitation extending into Tuesday with highest probabilities for the mountains and intermountain region. Finally Monday should be our last day of significantly warmer than average highs, with 50's to upper 60's still possible for the day.

While temperatures will then drop moving into the middle and end of the work week, without a strong cold airmass in the region, we'll only see conditions drop back to several degrees above normal, with another chance at 40's to 50's on Wednesday in between passing systems. Analysis of models and their ensembles show some agreement remaining through Wednesday and Thursday as the transient ridge passes across with a Pacific trough moving into the southwestern US, but by Friday guidance falls off the rails again and ensembles are unsure on how to resolve the multiple features we'll see influencing the forecast area. For now, expectation is that we'll have our quick cool down with a brief rise again on Wednesday, but moving into the end of the week it becomes a bit more uncertain on how much of a second cool down we'll see as the NBM shows anywhere from near normal to 10 degrees above for the region, and how these systems evolve also affects our precipitation chances. Nonetheless, it appears that the strong ridging that we've been seeing for the past several weeks may finally be on the decline, hopefully allowing us to catch up on precipitation and, for those who enjoy it, more winter-like conditions.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 445 AM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

VFR Conditions will prevail through TAF period. Winds will remain gusty through the day with winds dropping off around 00z for our Nebraska Terminals. Low level windshear will develop around 06z through the morning as a 700mb jet develops from a passing shortwave. Winds will slowly increase through the morning and the windshear will increase as well as the jet strengthens. Shear between 40 to 60 knots will be possible after 06z for almost all the terminals.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST Monday for WYZ430>433. High Wind Watch from this evening through Monday evening for WYZ101-106-110. High Wind Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for WYZ116-117. NE...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST Monday for NEZ434>437.