textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- A gorgeous weekend is in store as temperatures rebound into the upper 50s and 60s with clearing skies and minimal precipitation chances.

- Warmer, drier weather returns for the early part of the week ahead, with fire concerns increasing after Monday.

- More unsettled weather pattern may return as early as Wednesday and continue into next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Quiet weather expected over the next 48 hours with minimal chances for precipitation and relatively light winds heading into the early part of the work-week. Current IR Satellite loop shows clear skies over southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska early this morning with surface observations showing temperatures in the 20s to low 30s. Expect low temperatures to bottom-out close to average or slightly below average for this time of the year. Otherwise, Sunday will be similar to Saturday with little to no chance of precipitation and mostly sunny skies. It will be warmer today with highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s, warmest over the eastern high plains. Overall, a pleasant Easter Sunday is expected.

Models show the upper level ridge axis across the western US drifting eastward into the Intermountain West for early next week. This ridge axis is expected to weaken as it nears the Front Range, mainly due to the strength of the long wave upper level trough anchored over the eastern United States. This long wave trough is expected to be close enough to sent a shallow back door cold front southward across the high plains later on Monday. Expect high temperatures on Monday to be a few degrees cooler than Sunday along and east of the Interstate 25 corridor, but remain above average for Saratoga, Laramie, and Rawlins since the cooler air will be shallow enough not to make it past the Laramie Range. All models indicate a relatively strong polar surface high pressure centered over the dakotas and moving southeast through Monday evening. This will result in surface winds shifting into the east and southeast Monday and Monday night. An area of surface convergence is expected to develop along or near the Laramie Range with a continuation of west to southwest winds over Albany and Carbon counties. Can't rule out some afternoon convection trying to form off the mountains, including the Snowy Range, Monday afternoon. However, boundary layer moisture appears limited with minimal CAPE below 200 j/kg. In addition, any vertical development will be limited to below 18000 feet due to warmer air aloft based on area soundings. Kept POP below 15 percent for now with limited confidence, and even if convection initiation begins...light shower activity looks like the most likely outcome at best.

For Monday night and Tuesday, models show a weak upper level trough diving through the area. This looks like the best chance for precipitation in the short term but ensembles are showing minimal coverage and QPF with this feature, so kept POP below 25 percent across western Nebraska for now. This trough will also shift winds into the west with windy conditions returning to southeast Wyoming. Temperatures should rebound due to downslope westerly flow...with highs in the 60s to low 70s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 118 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

The long term period will begin under zonal flow aloft as a vigorous shortwave trough located over Montana passes by well to our north. Wednesday will be the windiest day of the week, ahead of a cold front that will slide through Southern Wyoming and Western Nebraska. With 35-40 knot cross-barrier 700 mb flow and an omega field reflective of a mountain wave pattern, both NBM and LREF ensemble guidance are suggesting wind gusts of 30-35 mph across Southern Wyoming, with slightly calmer conditions over our Nebraska counties. For the usual high wind hot spots, in-house random forest guidance has 40% probabilities of exceeding high wind criteria at Arlington, with probabilities being around 20% for Bordeaux. The locally higher gusts in both of these locations are also being picked up on ensemble guidance with a distinct maximum in 90th percentile wind gusts exceeding 60 mph west of Laramie along the Snowy Range. These windy conditions will also be accompanied by high temperatures 5-10 degrees above climatology in the ahead of the front, however the timing of the FROPA will ultimately determine how warm we get on Wednesday.

Heading into Thursday, Southern Wyoming and Western Nebraska will be situated in the right-entrance region of a 70-80 knot 250 mb jet, providing a source for large-scale forcing for ascent. Model soundings and cross-sections show steep, nearly dry adiabatic 700- 500 mb lapse rates, combined with weak instability (<100 J/kg SBCAPE). As PWAT is progged to increase to 80-90th percentile values relative to climatology on Thursday, we should see an increase in coverage of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening given the combination of moisture, lift, and instability.

Moving into Friday and the weekend, we will remain downstream of a rather amplified shortwave trough located over the Central California coast, placing us in a southwesterly flow regime resulting in a broad fetch of moisture and PWAT > 90th percentile across our area. With numerous subtle disturbances embedded in the southwesterly flow combined with anomalous moisture, we can expect daily chances for showers and thunderstorms into the weekend and high temperatures near climatology.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 531 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for all of our Wyoming and Nebraska terminals throughout the forecast period under mostly clear skies and light winds below 10 knots. KCDR may see occasional gusts of 15- 20 knots after 18Z. Overall, light westerly winds at the beginning of the period will gradually shift to ENE by the end of the TAF period with the exception of KRWL which may see SW winds prevail until 00Z.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...None. NE...None.