textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of accumulating snow is expected Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning, with models beginning to come into agreement on snow potential for the CWA including locations east of the Laramie Range.

- The pattern will shift to mostly dry and above normal temperatures after Saturday and persist through the start of next week with high winds possible during this time as well.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 255 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

With the upper-level shortwave responsible for yesterday's precipitation moving out, shallow ridging will build over the CWA for mid-week. 700 mb temperatures under the ridge will warm to about 0C, leading to above average highs at the surface. Sunny skies will help temperatures east of the Laramie Range climb into the 50s and 60s, which is about 10 to 15 degrees above average for early March. Did bump high temperatures down west of the Laramie Range as snow cover will likely lead to cooler conditions than what most models are forecasting. Highs out west will most likely stay in the 40s during the day. Subsidence under the ridge will keep precipitation away. Expect calm and cool conditions Wednesday night.

Thursday will feature the last mild day of the week as warm air aloft stays in place ahead of the next storm system. High temperatures will roughly be the same as Wednesday, with highs in the 50s and 60s east of the Laramie Range and 40s to low 50s west of the range. Hi-Res guidance does show some showers developing during the afternoon hours as the next upper-level trough swings into Wyoming. Given then warmer temperatures in the afternoon, precipitation is expected to start as rain. As the trough progresses into the CWA overnight, precipitation will become more widespread and ultimately transition to snow as the cold front moves across the area.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 255 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

The main concern in the long term forecast will be an incoming winter system as well as a return to windier conditions behind said system. As mentioned previously, the trough and associated cold front will move into the CWA Thursday night. As a result, precipitation will become more widespread, with rain transitioning to snow behind the front. Models still show some discrepancies between each other, mainly with snowfall amounts. Positioning and track of the surface low show similarities between cluster analysis of the GFS and ECMWF ensembles. Based off current model data, most snow will fall and accumulate during the day Friday. Snowfall totals still need some ironing out, but it is likely that winter headlines will be needed at least across southeast Wyoming. Prolonged northerly flow will provide good upslope flow for places like Laramie, Cheyenne, Rawlins and the Arlington area. This could lead to higher snowfall totals in these areas. Accumulations are still likely in Nebraska, but totals will be less than in Wyoming. Snow will taper off Friday night.

Cooler temperatures are expected behind the system on Saturday. This will definitely be true depending on the amount of snow cover left behind. With the trough out of the area, drier conditions are expected through the weekend and into the beginning of next week. Warmer temperatures aloft will move in by Sunday, leading to the return of above average temperatures once again. The return of warmer temperatures will also see the return of windy conditions. As winds turn more westerly, high winds will become increasingly more likely for the wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming Sunday through Tuesday. A pattern change is possible towards the end of the long term which could lead to cooler temperatures and a chance for precipitation.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1020 AM MST Wed Mar 4 2026

No aviation weather concerns across all terminals as VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of this TAF period. Winds, other than KRWL, will remain generally less than 10 knots. Speaking of KRWL, they may see winds gusting up to 25 knots today and again tomorrow morning.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...None. NE...None.