textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Very windy this morning for the wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming, elevated to high winds possible.

- Scattered showers and widely scattered thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening will have the potential to produce small hail and gusty and erratic winds. Another chance of thunderstorms possible Saturday.

- Much warmer and drier early next week as a strong ridge aloft drifts east over the Front Range.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 245 AM MDT Thu May 7 2026

Current IR Satellite loop shows mostly clear skies across most of the region with increasing high clouds moving southward ahead of the next upper level vort max/disturbance moving southeast out of western Canada. This feature will be our next forecast concern today. For this morning, surface observations show windy to very windy conditions for mainly our wind prone areas as the low level pressure gradient increases ahead of the disturbance moving south out of Canada. So far, winds have been gusting below 55 MPH with most gusts between 45 to 50 MPH. May need to issue another Special Weather Statement shortly, but going to hold off on any late minute High Wind Warnings since winds have been very briefly gusting around 55 MPH at times. Breezy west to northwest winds are expected elsewhere, especially late this morning and this afternoon, with gusts up to 40 MPH possible (possibly higher near thunderstorms). This wind will actually result in warmer temperatures than one would expect with a partial surface snowpack due to warming downslope winds.

For today, all models agree on the upper level disturbance digging south into eastern Wyoming and ejecting eastward across western Nebraska this afternoon. Most ensemble guidance and sounding data show CAPE values between 200 to 600 j/kg over a bulk of southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska with decent mid to upper level lift forcing associated with the vort max and 250mb jet. Activity may get going as early as noon today, and could linger well into tonight. Kept POP between 30 to 50 percent across much of the area for scattered rain showers and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Small hail and brief heavy rainfall/gusty winds possible with these thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening. Cloudy skies will likely linger through tonight with little chance for fog, even in areas which get 0.15 to 0.25 inches of rainfall.

Northwest flow aloft will continue on Friday behind the upper level disturbance as it digs southeast into the central plains. A few models show some rain shower activity developing along the Laramie Range and pushing southeast across the high plains during the afternoon. Most model guidance keeps things dry with model soundings showing an elevated temperature inversion/CAP around 600mb with a pretty dry boundary layer. Kept POP at or below 10 percent for now with the HRRR showing dry conditions and no precipitation. Near seasonable temperatures are forecast for Friday with highs in the 60s to low 70s, which is within 5 degrees of the average high for the day during this time of the year.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 315 PM MDT Wed May 6 2026

Warm days are ahead as high pressure ridging looks to take over for the majority of the long term forecast period, though we do start unsettled and near average before the heat takes hold. Friday evening should be mostly uneventful under a transient ridge with near seasonable low temperatures. Moving into Saturday however, a quick moving shortwave should bring a shot at showers and thunderstorms alongside gusty winds thanks to the enhanced pressure gradient. While the best precipitation chances will be for our northern zones, many of these locations didn't receive our recent snowfall and therefore the precipitation will be beneficial for them. In house guidance is highlighting the potential for wind highlights as probabilities are nearing 40% for the Arlington area, and 700mb winds around 50 knots are present. If nothing else, we should see a few storms and some locally gusty winds, but no strong agreement that more significant conditions are expected.

Thereafter, the main story will be strong ridging that will overtake the majority of the Western US. We'll see mostly dry conditions and a steady warming trend, with temperatures around 15 to 20 degrees above normal by early next week and continuing into the middle of the week, with parts of the NE Panhandle even flirting with 90 degrees. While ensembles do show this feature beginning to flatten out moving into the middle of next week, the strongest winds and pressure gradients would still lie to our north and east, keeping us under warm westerly flow with only weak upslope flow possibly promoting any new precipitation, but even this would be unlikely with how dry the lower levels will be. Most likely outcome currently would be isolated virga which could bring locally breezy winds, but otherwise if you didn't enjoy our brief return to winter this week, warm and dry weather are incoming by next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1125 AM MDT Thu May 7 2026

Northwest flow aloft will continue today and tonight as an upper level disturbance moves southeast across the terminals today and tonight. Breezy conditions are expected, especially across southeast Wyoming, with a good chance for showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon through late this evening. Some of this activity by linger past midnight tonight.

Wyoming TAFS...VFR prevails with ceilings 5000 to 10000 feet, along with high confidence in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from late afternoon through early evening, with storms producing gusty winds to 35 knots and visibility restrictions to 5 miles. Clearing skies late tonight with clear VFR conditions continuing through Friday morning.

Nebraska TAFS...Prevailing VFR with ceilings from 8000 to 15000 feet along with moderate confidence in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon and early this evening for Alliance, Scottsbluff and Sidney, producing gusty winds to 35 knots and ceilings near 5000 feet. Skies will become clear by Friday morning.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...None. NE...None.