textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle. Critical fire weather conditions expected.

- Record warmth will continue this afternoon through Saturday.

- Cooler, though still above average, temperatures return Sunday behind a cold front pushing through. Isolated to scattered precipitation chances expected with this frontal passage.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

A blustery afternoon continues, especially across southeast Wyoming where sporadic gusts of 40 to 50 MPH are being observed. Critical fire weather conditions are also being observed, particularly out west where downsloping winds are causing very dry conditions. As a result of the dryness and windy conditions expected through Saturday evening , decided to add the remaining fire weather zones out west to the current Red Flag Warning. Given the unprecedented heat expected through Saturday, critically dry conditions are forecast which could lead to extreme fire behavior for any fires that do start.

The bubble of high pressure remains in place over the Four Corners region through Saturday. Over the next few days, temperatures each day will gradually warm a few degrees as the ridge axis slowly meanders eastward. 700 mb temperatures will reach a roasty +12C by Saturday. Temperatures this warm are extremely rare and as previously mentioned, unprecedented, putting them in NAEFS climatological max. High temperatures will be more than 30 degrees above average, with a few Nebraska sites reaching high temperatures more than 40 degrees above average! High temperatures on Friday will be in the 70s and 80s, with 80 degrees temperatures expected for most areas east of the Laramie Range. Most locations are likely to set record highs by Friday, with all locations setting records on Saturday. The heat wave will peak on Saturday, with some locations hitting the low 90s! On Saturday, it is likely that all climate locations will break daytime record highs, as well as monthly record highs! Due to the strength of the ridge, precipitation is not expected as mostly sunny skies will dominate. The lack of precipitation ans dry air under the ridge will lead to critical fire weather conditions through Saturday. The CWA will be within the vicinity of an upper-level jet which will lead to breezy conditions with gusts of 30 to 40 MPH for the duration of the heat wave. Red Flag Warnings remain in effect through Saturday evening due to the extreme dryness and breezy conditions.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

A shortwave trough passing north of our area will help to flatten the ridge this weekend. A cold front associated with this passage will make its way south into our area overnight Saturday. Temperatures are expected to drop 20 to 30 degrees from Saturday's high temperatures, yet staying slightly above average for most of the area. Precipitation chances are unfortunately not impressive with the arrival of this system. GEFS ensemble is showing only about a 10-15% chance of measurable precipitation Sunday. However, given a shallow saturated layer, we cannot rule out periods of drizzle throughout the day over I-25 and points east and flurries at higher elevations.

After our frontal passage, the ridge begins to settle back in across the western CONUS early next week. Expect another round of warmth well above average for the area this time of year, peaking Wednesday. Records again may be broken with ensemble means reaching 80F. Tuesday, a 700mb shortwave may pass through the area increasing strong wind potentials. Internal guidance has about 50% probabilities of high winds. We should not let our guard down concerning fire weather with these conditions. Thursday may present another change to the ridging pattern with an upper-level system passage. Model guidance is naturally diverging at this range, but there is a signal for a cold front passage. Both numerical GEFS and AI ensemble members depict a drop in temperatures. It is too far out to hone in on precip. chances at this time, however given the recent pattern and likely lack of moisture sources in guidance, the odds are not great.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1059 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR conditions expected for the forecast period. West to northwest wind gusts will return mid morning in Wyoming and early afternoon in Nebraska. Expect gusts to around 25 to 35 knots in Wyoming and 15 to 25 knots in Nebraska. Winds will ease after sunset once again, and may be briefly variable Friday evening.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT Saturday for WYZ417>423-425- 427>433. NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT Saturday for NEZ434>437.