textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- High Wind Warnings remain in effect until 500 AM this morning.

- Cooler and near normal temperatures during the end of the week alongside some passing precipitation chances, with notable warmth by the weekend including temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal.

- Occasionally very windy conditions for the wind prone areas, especially tonight and early Wednesday morning.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 355 AM MST Tue Jan 27 2026

High Wind Warnings continue for most of the wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming early this morning. Allowed the High Wind Warning to expire on time for the Arlington/Elk Mountain area, even though gust are still around 55 to 57 MPH. Near-surface pressure gradients appear to be easing this morning, so will likely allow the rest of the Warned area to expire on time shortly. Otherwise, intervals of mid to high clouds will continue through the day today with clearing by late this afternoon. Brief warming trend continues today with highs generally in the mid 30s to mid 40s, warmest over the high plains. However, we will still be stuck in northwest flow aloft with some cloudiness, which may result in afternoon temperatures a few degrees below guidance. For highs, used a blend of CONMOS and NBM 50th percentile...which did pretty good with the warm bias on Monday.

Models show a continuation of northwest flow aloft for Wednesday and Thursday as a progressive Pacific disturbance impacts the region Wednesday and Wednesday night. Not expecting much precipitation out of this feature due to the fast motion and limited moisture...with PWATS hardly climbing at all late Wednesday (0.30 to 0.40 grand ensemble mean). Best chance for accumulating snowfall is in the mountains, which could see a surprise 6+ inches based on the trajectory of the upper level disturbance and some upslope flow ahead and behind the trough axis. Will continue to monitor models trends in the event any winter weather headlines are needed, but with the progressive nature of the trough, will hold off for now. Wednesday should be the warmest day of the week with highs in the 40s to around 50 for portions of the high plains, ahead of the Pacific front.

The only other minor concern over the next 24 hours is winds (shocking, right?) across the Arlington/Elk Mountain area. In- house wind guidance shows probabilities over 60 percent for a brief time late tonight for wind Gusts > 58 MPH...between midnight and 900 AM. The GFS and NAM low to midlevel pressure gradients are marginal as is the mean 700mb subsidence, which are a bit less than this morning. Contemplated issuing a High Wind Watch immediately after expiring the previous Warning, but decided to give this another model run to establish some trend. We did increase winds along the I-80 corridor with gusts around 55 MPH in the forecast.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 320 AM MST Tue Jan 27 2026

Made a few changes to the Long Term and LR discussion, mainly to move any mention of Wednesday and Thursday to the short term. Southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska will generally be stuck in progressive north to northwest flow as the leading edge of the next arctic cold front will make a close approach to the eastern high plains on Friday. Ensembles are in pretty good agreement with most members showing Dawes, Sioux, and Box Butte county in the arctic airmass Thursday night and Friday. Adjusted temperatures and used CONMOS and NBM 50th percentile blend for frontal position and timing. Bands of snow are possible along and behind the arctic front, but that depends on how far west this front pushes until it stalls. Kept higher POP well east of I-25 and closer to highway 71/US 385 corridor. This arctic intrusion will be short-lived with all models showing a shortwave ridge axis pushing southeast across the region for Saturday and a brief warming trend.

Previous Discussion... Issued at 134 PM MST Mon Jan 26 2026

With a lack of significant moisture and weak forcing, a few passing snow showers are possible with low accumulations, mostly relegated to the mountains and as well as one or two bands in the Nebraska Panhandle. Models are also unimpressed with our high wind chances, with in house guidance only promoting a 30-50% probability of high wind gusts for our wind prone locations. By the weekend however, the ridge will overspread the entirety of the Western US and cause our temperatures to notably increase, with widespread highs in the mid 40's to mid 50's and drying conditions. With the high increasing it's presence, it will be harder for any passing systems to graze us, also reducing our chances of high winds. If you've been looking for some favorable conditions for outdoor activities, this weekend might be your opportunity.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 525 AM MST Tue Jan 27 2026

A weak upper level disturbance will push southeast over the area this morning. Not much impactful weather expected with decreasing clouds likely late this afternoon and tonight behind the disturbance.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours with intervals of mid to high clouds generally above 10k feet AGL. Locally windy conditions expected at the southeast Wyoming terminals with occasional gusts between 25 to 35 knots between 18z and 00z this afternoon. Lighter winds expected for the Nebraska Panhandle terminals today.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST early this morning for WYZ106- 116-117. NE...None.