textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- High Wind Warning remains in effect through Monday evening.

- The Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 5PM Monday, with very poor overnight humidity recovery expected overnight tonight into early Monday morning. Worst conditions expected Monday afternoon.

- Progressive pattern expected through the week with better chances of precipitation, but temperatures remaining above normal through the period.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 227 AM MST Mon Feb 9 2026

Mid-level water vapor shows the low near Tijuana still disconnected from the flow. This low is keeping the ridge over the West coast and Intermountain West alive and keeping us in a westerly flow. The upper level trough is attempting to cross the Rockies now over Idaho now. This trough is responsible for compressing our pressure gradient at the 700mb level leading to the high winds this morning and afternoon. THe 00z runs of the Euro and GFS still maintain the development of jet but have delayed the peak until around 18z instead of 12-15z like the previous runs. Also peak intensity has also dropped slightly to 60-65kts with almost every model except the GFS which maintains 65-70kts for peak intensity. However, the GFS usually does fairly well in high wind events for Southeast Wyoming and the Rocky Mountain area. But, it does raise some concern that this could be a marginal high wind event if the winds at 700mb only reach 60kts. The Craig to Casper height gradient looks to peak at 63 meters around 15z before dropping below 50 meters and sinking. Our in-house algorithm has also dropped certainty to about 40-60% which is down from 60-80% 24 hours before for our wind prone areas. A couple places have briefly hit the magical 58 mph along I-80 near Arlington but otherwise the wind gusts have been around 45-50 mph. While the Omega fields also show subsident flow, the strength of the downward motion isn't as strong as yesterday's 00z run. The foothills in between Cheyenne and Laramie are going to remain in a watch as the the 700mb doesn't have the pronounced as southerly jog but there is still moderate subsident flow over the region so it can't be ruled out that high winds won't hit either. Once the sun rises we should start seeing multiple areas hit high wind criteria as diurnal mixing takes over. Our prolonged westerly flow has led to terrible RH recovery overnight as sites reach between 15 to 19 percent at 2am. RH values may drop into the low teens or single digits once the high winds take over. Our saving grace is the strong moisture advection from the incoming trough that is suppose to arrive tonight(Monday Night). However, due to the arid conditions in the boundary layer, only added pops for the mountains. This trough will also bring some cooler air to reside over the Intermountain West. 700mb temperatures drop from about 7C to -7C Monday night into Tuesday morning. This drop in 700mb temperatures results in Tuesday's high to be in the 40's about a 15-20 degree drop from Monday's high.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 115 PM MST Sun Feb 8 2026

Models in better agreement since yesterday on the overall pattern as a progressive flow will promote better chances of precipitation across portions of the region, primarily the intermountain area of course, but without a strong cold air surge and dry surface conditions east of the Laramie range, winter-like weather will remain all but absent through next weekend. Tuesday starts in the wake of a quick moving shortwave that will lead to brief transient ridging into the middle of the week. The aforementioned shortwave alongside southwesterly flow should promote a small surge of moisture and increasing precipitation chances, primarily for our mountain zones. While surface moisture may at times wrap around into locations east of our mountainous areas, overall surface RH values are expected to remain on the low side, inhibiting better chances of precipitation despite some favorable moisture aloft. The good news for our mountains is that several inches of snow should occur during the mid-week timeframe, helping to alleviate some of the missing snowpack for the area. But with the incoming ridging and warmer southwesterly flow, expect more springlike temperatures to hit our area. Tuesday will be around or just above normal, but highs on Wednesday climb back into the upper 40's to upper 50's, possibly even eclipsing 60 degrees once again in a few locations. Also on Wednesday, in house guidance is hinting at another possibility of stronger winds, but currently keeps probabilities on the low side, with Arlington only peaking at around 30% at this time.

But as mentioned this ridge will be transient in nature, and by Thursday we'll see broad troughing overtake the area leading to temperatures relaxing by a few degrees, but still at least 4-8 degrees above normal. Without a stronger forcing mechanism, some scattered precipitation may be possible leading into the weekend, but activity will be light in nature and brief at best. Saturday sees another transient ridge moving into the region which may promote another round of stronger temperatures just beyond the long term, with a jet beginning to encroach as well and possibly our next shot at higher winds. While some areas should get some relief from our lack of moisture, overall unseasonable warmth remains the primary message as we continue with our lack of winter through next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 437 AM MST Mon Feb 9 2026

Wind is going to be the main concern today. Wind gusts are going to increase after 15z due to diurnal mixing. The Low level jet will be around 45-50kts and the terminals will see winds around 30 knots mix down by 18z. Winds look to die down around 06z when the jet dies off. Otherwise Mid-High based clouds will be sticking around until tomorrow morning at around 10-12,000ft. VFR conditions are expected to last through the TAF period.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ430>433. High Wind Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for WYZ101-106- 110. High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ116. High Wind Watch from 8 AM MST this morning through this afternoon for WYZ117. NE...Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NEZ434>437.