textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Next widespread high wind event expected to begin Tuesday and Wednesday, with periods of very windy conditions continuing through Friday. High Wind Watches are currently in place for the usual southeast Wyoming wind prones.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 154 PM MST Sun Feb 22 2026

This afternoon marks a pleasant end to the weekend with sunny skies and calm conditions. Temperatures remain a bit chilly today in areas with snow cover as highs struggle to climb into the 30s. Areas without snow pack are warmer than yesterday, with highs reaching the low 40s. Temperatures will drop once again overnight due to mostly clear skies and light winds. This could also cause some patchy fog in areas with snow cover.

Monday will likely mark the return of above average temperatures for much, if not all of the forecast area. With the upper-level ridge axis still in place over the Great Basin, 700 mb temperatures will rise above 0C, which is roughly the 90th percentile for NAEFS climatology. Highs across most of the area will climb into the 50s, with low 60s possible for lower elevation locations in the Nebraska panhandle. These warm temperatures will likely lead to a decent melt off of snow, however, once again, it is possible that snow covered areas will struggle to reach forecast highs. Mostly sunny skies are expected during the day due to subsidence under the ridge. However, heading into the evening hours, clouds will begin to increase as a weak upper-level disturbance moves overhead. This disturbance will also cause winds to increase in the usual southeast Wyoming wind prones, prompting the need for High Wind Watches as steepening gradients cause winds aloft to strengthen.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 154 PM MST Sun Feb 22 2026

Tuesday, a broad but slightly amplified ridge sets up over the Intermountain West. An upper level low is traversing eastward across the Canadian Providences compressing and somewhat shifting the axis eastward over the Rocky Mountains. The shift will put the 500mb jetstream right over the states of Montana and Wyoming placing us in westerly to Northwesterly flow for the upcoming workweek. Late Monday night into early Tuesday morning the first shortwave impacts the Intermountain West tightening the 700mb shortwave. This tightened gradient will begin our week of possible/ to probable high winds for our wind prones and areas adjacent to the wind prones. The new 12z runs of the Global models still has the 700mb jet peak at speeds of 65 to 75 knots intermittently through Wednesday evening. Then relaxes behind a cold front to 55-60 knots aloft Thursday morning through Friday morning. The jetstream looks to shift a little more northward as the peak speed continue to be around 55 knots come Friday afternoon before dropping below 50 knots by friday evening. Looking at the Global omega fields they indicate strong to very strong subsident flow Tuesday and Wednesday, then backing off to weak to semi-strong subsident flow Thursday and Friday. Mid-level lapse rates look to float between 7.5 to 8.5C/km to support some decent mixing and allowing for those faster winds to move to the surface. With these westerly to Northwesterly winds areas east of I-25 will experience warm/dry downsloping winds throughout the week. 700mb temperatures rise from -1C to about 4-5C for the first half of the work week. Surface temperature will rise to the 50-60's for our daily highs. Thursday morning the weak cold front looks to push through dragging a little bit of that colder air down with it but with those downsloping winds it wont have much effect on the temperatures during the day but could potentially drop overnight temperatures back into the mid to upper 20's for the region. As for the precipitation chances they look to mostly be contained to our Southern mountain peaks with that Tuesday/ Wednesday shortwave. There is a plume of moisture that sets up over the mountains at 700mb with that first shortwave. With the weak vorticity stream attached to the shortwave, the extra synoptic lift should be enough to give our southern mountains a few inches of snow on our mountain peaks. For the lower elevations, the dry layer created by the downsloping winds will likely prevent any precipitation from reaching the ground. Pops were lowered from NBM once again as model sounding still showed a pretty dry layer near the surface despite being saturated in the mid levels. Around nightfall would be the best chance for precipitation to hit the ground as RH recoveries look to be around 65 percent. With the second shortwave coming Thursday into Friday there is even less projected moisture than the first. The NBM pops were kept as they only pops that were in this time period was low pops for the Sierra Madres. Even with the decrease in the 700mb jet during this period. There is still a risk for near critical fire concerns with the gusty winds and Min RH values possibly dropping into the low teens.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1020 PM MST Sun Feb 22 2026

High pressure will continue to dominate weather conditions across the CWA, bringing VFR conditions to all terminals for the duration of this TAF period. Winds will remain primarily less than 10 knots through the night for all sites. By 18/19Z, winds ramp up with westerly gusts in the 20 to 30 knot range while KRWL and KLAR may see gusts up to 35 knots. At the tail end of this forecast, around 03Z Tuesday, LLWS may become a concern for KBFF, KCDR, and KAIA as Mountain Wave develops.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...High Wind Watch from Monday afternoon through Wednesday evening for WYZ106-110. High Wind Watch from Monday evening through Wednesday evening for WYZ116-117. NE...None.