textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Winter Storm Warning now in effect for the Sierra-Madre and Snowy Ranges beginning early Wednesday morning and continuing through Thursday morning.

- Progressive pattern expected through the week with better chances of precipitation, but temperatures remaining above normal through the period.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING/

Issued at 255 PM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

We've seen a few flakes of snow here at the office this afternoon, alongside echoes spreading as far east as the southern Nebraska Panhandle. Guidance has also become more aggressive on overall precipitation, with probabilities on the rise for heavy snowfall during the mid-week timeframe. While forcing will be mostly weak behind this first system and with the second shortwave rounding the ridge Wednesday into Thursday, upslope flow should assist in promoting moderate to heavy accumulations into the mountains, alongside seasonably moist PWAT values. Probabilities of 12+ inches over 48 hours in the NBM have increased to over 70%, particularly for the Sierra- Madre range, with similar increases in high resolution guidance as well. With latest QPF guidance combined with these probabilities showing upwards of 12-16 inches for both ranges and the peaks exceeding 20 inches, the Winter Weather Advisory was upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning, now valid beginning 12Z tomorrow and continuing through 18Z on Thursday. In the meantime, intermittent light to moderate snow will be possible, but tomorrow morning is when heaviest accumulations are expected to begin.

An increase in winds with this quick passing system tomorrow could also bring some breeziness on Wednesday into Thursday, but models are not favoring high winds at this time. In house guidance only hits a maximum probability at Arlington of around 20%, with even lower chances elsewhere. While some gap flow may briefly agitate conditions enough to promote a rogue wind gust in excess of 50+ mph at Arlington, at this time high wind highlights are not needed. Otherwise the overall pattern will be dominated by a transient longwave ridge that will hold through Thursday, with broad and weak troughing then overtaking into Friday morning with flow becoming disrupted and weak for the day. While precipitation chances will persist through overnight into Friday, they should weaken and begin to taper off by Thursday evening, hence the Winter Storm Warning expiring on Thursday morning. Finally temperatures will remain elevated thanks to the ridging and southwesterly flow through Thursday, with highs the next two days 10-15 degrees above normal in the 50's to near 60 east of I-25, and widespread 40's for our western zones, while overnight lows will dip around or just under freezing each night.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1005 AM MST Tue Feb 10 2026

VFR conditions expected for the majority of the 18Z TAF period. Isolated to scattered snow showers are expected to move across the Wyoming terminals this afternoon and evening. Conditions may deteriorate to MVFR conditions with the heaviest showers resulting in near-IFR conditions. Conditions will continue to improve after snow showers move out of the area, with light winds and cloudy skies expected overnight.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Wednesday to 11 AM MST Thursday for WYZ112-114. NE...None.