textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures with dry and breezy conditions will lead to fire weather concerns on Friday.

- A pattern change will lead to more seasonable temperatures and increase precipitation chances next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 307 AM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

A few more days of mild temperatures are expected in the short term before a pattern change leads to cooler and wetter conditions. Weak upper-level ridging continues today, with 700 mb temperatures maxing out around +13C. NAEFS has these temperatures around the 97.5th percentile. The anomalously warm temperatures will lead to highs in the 70s to low 90s with the potential for a few locations to break and/or come within a few degrees of record highs. The warm temperatures will contribute to widespread dryness across the area this afternoon. A weak disturbance moving aloft will lead to breezy conditions throughout the day. The combination of warm, dry and breezy conditions will lead to fire weather concerns across portions of southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska. As a result, Red Flag Warnings are in place for the afternoon. Despite it being dry, cannot rule out isolated gusty showers as the disturbance moves through. Hi-Res guidance does show the potential for a few showers, however, given the very dry low and mid-level, little to no precipitation is actually expected to reach the ground if showers do develop. Model soundings show strong inverted-V profiles, so cannot rule out strong wind gusts in and around these showers. Showers will dissipate later in the evening.

Similar conditions are expected for Saturday. Mild, above average temperatures will continue across the area, with highs only a few degrees cooler compared to Friday. Precipitation chances during the day will be relatively low, but will increase later in the evening as a trough over the west coast pushes vort maxes into the forecast area. Any showers or storms that develop during the day will likely have precipitation that makes it to the ground. Soundings still show a dry environment so gusty winds will be a concern in and around storms. Later in the evening, precipitation will become more widespread and more stratiform, mainly along and west of the Laramie Range. Soundings later in the evening show pretty good saturation for Rawlins and Laramie, so these areas could see decent rainfall overnight.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

In the long term we're finally going to see active weather as troughing begins to take over the western US with an uptick in moisture and instability fueled by the remnants of two tropical systems lifting up from the Pacific. Over the weekend we'll see ridging breaking down and moving off to the east as two lows overtake the West Coast, one from the north and one from the south. These two systems will continue to merge bringing a large and deep cutoff upper level low that will control the Western US into the start of the work week. As flow turns more southwesterly during the weekend, we'll see a notable influx of moisture overspread the region. This should begin to fuel shower chances that will just barely move into the CWA on Saturday ahead of a cold front which will slowly drop down across the region through Sunday. Current forecast calls for precipitation to struggle to move further than the high terrain through Sunday as the bulk of the moisture remains confined further west, bringing stronger impacts across western and northern Wyoming. Also of note, this initial push of colder air won't be nearly enough to completely shut down our October masquerading as summer, with highs on Saturday still 12-18 degrees above normal as 700mb temperatures still remain around 10-12C on Saturday, and then slightly cooling on Sunday with highs still 8-12 degrees above normal in the 60's to 70's.

Monday into the middle of the week the closed upper level low off of California will begin to weaken by Tuesday and then eject across the Rockies Tuesday into Wednesday, becoming absorbed by upper level flow as another trough begins to then develop to bring further impacts just beyond the long term. While ridging will be able to amplify to our east across the Mississippi River Valley, we'll remain in a split flow between this and the troughing to our west. The NBM brings at least a low-end chance of some precipitation on Monday and Tuesday as moisture remains with PWAT values slightly above normal, but this also means our temperatures should hover where they stood on Sunday in the 60's to 70's. Wednesday is when we should finally see cooler conditions and a bit more widespread precipitation occur as the aforementioned West Coast low ejects across the Rockies and just south of our region. While highs will be a few degrees cooler and near normal to the west of the I-25 corridor, temperatures further east should still remain a few degrees above normal in front of the cold front. But the long term doesn't end without a shot of colder air, as the overnight lows moving into Thursday morning should drop into the 30's to 40's, with some locations getting their first freeze of the season potentially. And with air this cool, the mountains should finally dip low enough that snow will begin returning to the higher terrain of the region. This could even spread down into the adjacent valleys and lower terrain, but don't expect our first significant snow storm just yet as this will likely be mixed with rain and brief for the most part. But snowy peaks may finally be on tap as we beginning moving into the second half of the month, and relief from our warm and dry conditions is expected.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1140 AM MDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds are going to remain rather light with gusts up to 20-25kts(WY) possible this afternoon. Some high based clouds will be pushing through our area this afternoon and clearing out by morning. There could be some wind shear associated as these clouds pass over as some microbursts are expected. Wind gusts will ramp up tomorrow morning as the pressure gradient is expected to tighten over Southeast Wyoming with max wind gusts expected to be around 30-35kts early afternoon.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for WYZ417>422- 425-427-432. NE...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NEZ434.