textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and high elevation snow showers continue through Tuesday morning.

- Snow levels will drop to around 6500 to 7000 ft during the day Monday, then quickly to between 4500 to 6000 ft Monday evening.

- Winter Weather Advisories remain in place for the mountains and higher elevations of the I-80 corridor, with wet accumulating snow expected.

- Snow accumulation is possible along the Pine Ridge and the north side of the Cheyenne Ridge, but confidence is lower there.

- Widespread northwest winds gusting 45 to 55 mph are expected along and east of the Laramie Range Monday and Monday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 340 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

TODAY: A dynamic day is expected across the area today as a sprawling, messy storm system moves through. We are transitioning to the wrap-around phase of this event this morning. GOES water vapor channel satellite imagery shows the deepest moisture now pushing largely to our northeast, with a dry slot pushing in from the south over the High Plains. Radar shows scattered shower activity ongoing, which is expected to continue for the next several hours. The dry slot is creeping into the I-80 corridor, but should struggle to get much further north. Meanwhile, the next round of showers is taking shape across central Wyoming this morning, and this is expected to fill in to the south and east over the course of the morning as the surface cold front pushes in. This boundary has likely already pushed through Casper, and should be through Douglas shortly. Further south and east, expect winds to turn westerly and then rapidly strengthen. Most of the High Plains should be solidly within the gusty northwest winds by 7AM or so. The temperature drop is not particularly pronounced, but slow cold air advection behind the front is still expected, which will push snow levels downward. Along and west of the Laramie range, we should see snow mixing in with the rain showers during the morning hours, but temperatures in the mid to upper 30s in the valleys and the timing during the day will make accumulation difficult below about 7500 ft in elevation. Overall, we are still on track for 6+ inches above 9000 ft or so, and a few inches along the higher elevations of I-80 (Arlington/Elk Mountain and the summit east of Laramie). Areas around Rawlins, Saratoga, and Laramie could see an inch or so this morning if a heavier band develops, mainly on grassy/elevated surfaces. East of the Laramie range, expect on and off shower activity along the US-20 corridor from Douglas to Chadron for much of the day, but more limited scattered showers further south. With winds aloft now expected to remain a tad west of north for much of the daytime hours, shower coverage looks to end up a little lower compared to prior forecasts.

The main weather impact over the High Plains today will be the strong, gusty northwest winds. We are still on track for widespread gusts of 45 to 55 mph along and east of the Laramie Range. Winds are expected to peak this afternoon and evening. The possibility for a few 60+ mph remains today, but most areas still have a high wind probability of about 30%, too low for any wind headlines. If we see these gusts, the most likely areas (closer to 40-50%) are along I-25 between Wheatland and Glendo, the Pine Ridge around Harrison and south of Chadron, and areas right along the CO border in Laramie, Kimball, or Cheyenne counties.

TONIGHT: Heading into the evening, the secondary upper level low currently located near the Four Corners will start to have a more significant influence. This should elongate the moisture band as the primary low continues off to the northeast. Most models still show the winds in the 700 to 500-mb layer becoming more due north if not every so slightly northeast after about 5PM this evening, which will actually be a slightly more favorable forcing for ascent. Thus, expect shower activity to keep going over the High Plains even as the primary system moves further away. With strong north-northwest winds continuing, the smaller terrain features of the High Plains will make themselves known during this period. The Pine Ridge and the north side of the Cheyenne ridge should appear prominently in radar imagery this evening, while areas south of the ridge crests will be drier. Snow levels will also continue to drop this evening, aided by the loss of daytime heating. These should be as low as 4500 to 5000 ft where precipitation rates are heavier, and around 6000 ft where rates are lighter. One area of particular concern is southern Niobrara county around Lusk. The most likely scenario at this time is around 1" of snow this evening and overnight, but there is a pretty high ceiling on the potential here. Probabilities for 3" or more around 40% in Lusk/Manville, and around 20% for 6" or more. We will wait for the next round of high-resolution model guidance, but winter weather headlines may be needed if trends hold.

The other area for light snow accumulation tonight will be the north side of the Cheyenne ridge, including northern Laramie County into Banner county (and the edges of adjacent counties). The most likely scenario is around a dusting to an inch or two here. Rates should be lighter on this ridge due to slightly weaker forcing. There is some uncertainty in the western extend of the overnight precipitation potential, and we could see a second round as far west as Laramie.

TUESDAY: Expect rain and snow showers along the east-west oriented ridges to decrease in coverage Tuesday morning before coming to an end by midday. Look for decreasing cloud cover and continued gusty northwest winds for much of the day, but Tuesday's winds look more like mostly between 35 and 45 mph. Highs should be slightly below seasonal averages.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 340 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

The rest of the week looks mostly uneventful after we finally say farewell to this system by Wednesday. Ridging will try to build back into the area, but the warming potential will be hampered by a few moisture-starved closed lows moving across the western CONUS. As a result, look for highs to remain generally close to seasonal averages from midweek through the weekend. The first closed low around Wednesday will bring a chance for a few rain / high elevation snow showers, but most ensemble members send the tiny, compact system and the narrow band of precipitation potential to our south. The next system looks to pass to our north over the weekend. The chance for precipitation is low with this one, but it may bring a surge in gusty winds across the area Saturday and Sunday. Behind this system, we should see cleaner ridging take over across the western CONUS. After a slightly cooler day Saturday, look for temperatures to trend above seasonal averages Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 436 AM MST Mon Nov 2 2026

Complicated and low confidence aviation forecast for the current TAF period with multiple hazards. A strong low pressure system is developing just east of our this morning as a cold front sweeps through. Scattered shower activity is moving through at the same time. Leftover low CIGs and patchy fog are partially breaking up with the frontal passage. All terminals will likely fluctuate flight category this morning. MVFR to IFR should be most common, but brief periods of LIFR and VFR are also expected. In addition, northwest winds will increase rapidly over the next few hours. Daytime winds will gust 35 to 45 knots at most terminals, with some brief gusts approaching 50 knots possible, especially this afternoon and evening.

Concerning shower activity, we will see the next round increase around RWL, LAR and CDR this morning, with more intermittent precipitation at CYS, BFF, AIA, and SNY. RWL and LAR may mix with or changeover to snow this morning, producing periods of IFR VIS. TAFs attempt to estimate the timing, but it should be noted that confidence is low for the entire TAF period concerning the timing of VIS/CIG drops. AMDs are probable.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for WYZ103. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ110. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for WYZ112-114. Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM MST this evening for WYZ116. NE...None.