textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- A short fused High Wind Warning has been issued from 2AM to 11AM this morning for the Arlington/Elk Mountain wind prone zone.

- Quiet weather expected for the weekend as an upper-level ridge moves overhead and clearing skies return.

- Mostly quiet weather expected next week, with a cold front pushing through Tuesday and dropping temperatures back into the 40s and 50s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 130 AM MST Sat Jan 31 2026

Mostly quiet weather expected for this weekend, with only isolated snow showers possible early this morning into the late morning hours. Upper-level ridging is progged to move back into the region today, leading to drying conditions and clearing skies. Mostly benign 500mb flow expected below the upper-level ridge, favoring quiet weather for the next few days. A more active 700mb pattern for today, with a 700mb low moving southeast from southern Canada towards the Midwest. A strong 700mb jet will accompany this low, with increasing height gradients this morning and elevated height gradients continuing throughout the day. The strongest 700mb height gradients are expected this morning, starting around 09Z and continuing through 18Z. Craig to Casper height gradients range between 65 and 70m through 15Z, with omega data suggesting a 50-55kt 700mb during the peak strength of the height gradients. At the surface, surface pressure gradients increase this morning, with a 3 to 4mb gradient oriented southwest to northeast across the Arlington wind prone area. Taking a look over the the GFS Omega Field, strong downward Omega values are expected to develop this morning into the afternoon, favoring some of these stronger 700mb winds mixing down to the surface. Modest low-level lapse rates are suggested by RAP model soundings, increasing the concerns for strong winds in the Arlington/Elk Mountain wind prone. With in-house guidance suggesting about a 50-60% chance for high winds at Arlington this morning, decided to issue a short High Wind Warning from 2AM through 11AM this morning for the Arlington wind prone zone. Confidence is somewhat low on Arlington actually reaching criteria, due to weaker lapse rates and a slower erosion of the inversion this morning, but enough variables pointed towards high winds to lead to a High Wind Warning being issued. Gusts up to 60mph will be possible. Winds start to calm down this afternoon, with most locations gusting between 25 and 35 mph. Temperatures will be warm, in the mid-40s to mid-50s everywhere. Isolated snow chances come to an end around 18Z this morning.

Quiet weather will continue into Sunday as the upper-level ridge axis moves across the Intermountain West. The ridge looks to weaken slightly later in the evening, but mostly quiet conditions will persist. By 12Z Monday morning, the next upper-level shortwave will be pushing into Montana from southern Canada. This will bring the cold front expected Tuesday morning. However, for Sunday, 700mb flow will continue to be elevated, due to the CWA being stuck between the ridge across the Intermountain West and a strong low over southern Canada. The increased height gradients will lead to a 700mb jet between 50 o 55kt once again, but looks to remain well to the east across the Great Plains and into western portions of the Midwest. However, with this system so close to the region, slightly elevated height gradients are expected across the CWA, but the jet looks to stay between 35 and 40kts at its peak strength. Modest GFS downward omega values will be present Sunday, allowing some of the 700mb jet winds to mix down to the surface, accelerating as they do. As a result, some gusts between 40 and 50 mph cannot be completely ruled out, but high winds do not look likely at this time. Temperatures will remain warm, in the upper-40s to upper-50s across the CWA. Clear skies will turn partly to mostly cloudy throughout the day as the upper-level shortwave starts to approach the region, with mostly cloudy skies expected by early Monday morning. No precipitation is expected for Sunday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 130 AM MST Sat Jan 31 2026

No major changes, see previous discussion below...

Not many value added changes will be forthcoming this afternoon as the long term period appears to be generally quiet. The period does begin with a highly amplified upper pattern in place characterized by stout upper ridging over the the western CONUS and subsequent downstream troughing over the east. Guidance continues to show high temperatures both Sunday and Monday 10 degrees or more above the climatological average.

The ridge will be knocked down for a few days(Tuesday and Wednesday) behind a cold front forecast to move through early Tuesday. The cold front itself is rather non descript and with little moisture to work with, will likely only produce a little light snow in the higher terrain areas. High temperatures across the forecast area on Tuesday and Wednesday will still make it into the 40s to lower 50s in the lower elevations with 20s and 30s in the high country.

The upper ridge rebuilds quickly over the four corners behind this front. Heights on Thursday support high temperatures in the 50s and possibly lower 60s the lower elevation areas on Thursday with only slightly cooler readings on Friday as a cold front approaches.

While the period does appear to be quiet, the one exception may be Friday with some of the longer range guidance suggesting some strong winds associated with the aforementioned cold front. Impressive H7 jet associated with an upper low diving into the Great Lakes could help generate gusty winds but as we are taking a week out, a wait and see approach will be taken.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 408 AM MST Sat Jan 31 2026

Near-IFR conditions are currently ongoing at KAIA and KSNY this morning with SCT008 cloud decks, occasionally increasing to BKN008. Ceilings will improve for the rest of the day starting around 17Z this morning. Gusty conditions ongoing at most terminals this morning and will continue through most of the day. Skies clear this afternoon and evening.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...High Wind Warning until 11 AM MST this morning for WYZ110. NE...None.