textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Another cool and breezy day expected Sunday as daytime high temperatures only reach the 60s for most locations.

- A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for portions of southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska from noon to 9 PM on Monday.

- Fire weather concerns continue Tuesday through at least Friday, with dry, breezy conditions and very warm temperatures. Minimal precipitation expected during this time.

- High Wind event is looking increasingly likely for Tuesday into Wednesday for the wind prone regions of southeast Wyoming.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 208 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

A much cooler day is in store for southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska today, due to two separate cold front that moved across the region yesterday. Upper-level flow remains largely zonal as the base of the upper-level shortwave traverses northwest to southeast across the western Dakotas. This shortwave will funnel cooler, Canadian air into the CWA with 700mb temperatures in the -1 to 3C range throughout the day today. As a result, surface temperatures will be much cooler with highs only in the 60s across the entire region, with 50s in the higher elevations. With the cooler, more dense, air across the region a surface high pressure is progged to develop over northeastern portions of the CWA and advect southeasterly across the CWA. As a result, increasing surface pressure gradients are anticipated leading to breezy conditions west of the Laramie Range and along Interstate 80 this morning into the afternoon hours. An isolated shower cannot be completely ruled out this morning into the afternoon hours where easterly, moist, upslope flow in ongoing, but significant precipitation is not anticipated due to the drier low- levels. With the easterly and northerly winds anticipated throughout the day today, some smoke from the wild fire in northern Sioux County may lead to a smokey smell in the area, but significant visibility reductions from smoke are not expected.

Cooler weather comes to a quick end for Monday, as very dry afternoon humidity values and gusty winds return to the region. Northwesterly to northerly flow aloft develops for Monday leading to dry, continental air from Canada to continue to move into the Intermountain West as an upper-level ridge builds off the western coast of the CONUS. 700mb flow will remain largely northwesterly throughout the day Monday with temperatures warming to the 8 to 12C range across the region. Surface temperatures are expected to warm into the mid-70s to low-80s across the CWA. Breezy, northwesterly winds develop at the surface Monday afternoon as surface pressure gradients increase to a weak front pushing through the region. As a result, hot, dry, and windy conditions are expected Monday afternoon along and east of the Laramie Range. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued from noon Monday through 9 PM Monday evening for the western Nebraska Panhandle and portions of southeast Wyoming, mainly north of the Interstate-25 corridor. Humidity will be borderline critical for Laramie County, so did not include this region into the Fire Weather Watch. However, should forecast humidity values decrease with future model run, the Fire Weather Watch may need to be expanded to include central and eastern Laramie County. Overnight humidity recoveries Monday into Tuesday will be good, in the 50 to 60 percent range across fire-prone areas.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 208 AM MDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Tuesday onwards will be largely dominated by an upper-level ridge across the West Coast as it slowly meanders onshore by Wednesday morning. Largely northwesterly flow is anticipated across the CWA with more zonal flow potentially returning Friday into the weekend as long range models suggest an upper-level trough moving onshore into the Pacific Northwest late Friday into Saturday morning. This pattern shift will promote some isolated to scattered precipitation chances Friday into the weekend, but the exact location of these showers is uncertain as this time. Prior to the pattern shift Friday evening, warm and dry weather is anticipated Tuesday through Friday afternoon. Daily high temperatures will be in the 80s and 90s Tuesday through Friday, with a weak front moving through Thursday dropping high temperatures into the 70s and 80s. With synoptic-scale ridging in place for a majority of the week, very dry conditions are expected with little to no precipitation chances until Friday evening. Daily afternoon minimum humidity values will tank into the 10 to 15 percent range, leading to critical fire condition for much of the work week. Additionally, winds will be quite breezy most of the week, but especially Wednesday when a high wind event looks to be taking shape. As a result, critical fire conditions are expected for much of the week and extensions and expansion of fire weather headlines is likely.

Looking specifically at the high wind potential for Wednesday, 700mb flow remains largely northwesterly, but a shortwave is anticipated to move across eastern Montana and western North Dakota Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. This shortwave will increase height gradients across the CWA, with the 700mb jet increasing to 50 to 55 kts in response, with some models suggesting 60+ kts across the Interstate-80 Summit. GFS Omega fields suggest strong downward motion along and east of the Laramie Range during this time, favoring a potential high wind event Tuesday into Wednesday, especially in the typical wind prone regions of southeast Wyoming. In-house, random forest guidance suggests around a 60 percent probability of high winds at Arlington/Elk Mountain and near the Interstate-80 Summit. This setup will be monitored over the next several days to determine whether high wind headlines are needed. For now, danger fire conditions are anticipated Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1057 PM MDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Low clouds are pushing up against the higher terrain in northeast flow this evening. In Nebraska, CIGs should remain VFR but generally between 4k and 7k ft. LAR and CYS have the highest probabilities (80%) for MVFR conditions. A few light showers are anticipated, but VIS drops are not expected. Still, VCSH was maintained with this TAF issuance.

Overall winds will be light north to northeast winds with occasional gusts to around 20 knots possible at CYS and Nebraska terminals. Winds will be occasionally variable over the High Plains. Winds will continue to gust 20 to 30 knots at RWL and LAR, but should decrease mid morning. Expect a gradual decrease in cloud cover Sunday afternoon with mostly light winds.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for WYZ417-418-432-433. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for NEZ434>437.