textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- High Wind Warnings remain in effect for much of the CWA, but have been extended through, 11 AM Thursday, for the typical wind prone locations, as well as Central Laramie County.

- The Winter Weather Advisory for the mountains has been upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning through 5 PM this evening. 8 to 12 additional inches of snow is expected, with higher values possible in the peaks.

- Fire Weather Watches have been issued for much of the Nebraska Panhandle and far southeastern Wyoming from 11 AM Thursday through 5 PM Thursday.

- Critical Fire Weather conditions expected on Friday, with afternoon humidity values dropping into the 10-15% range with winds gusting upwards of 40 mph.

- Widespread precipitation chances return early next week, though daily probabilities remain only between about 30 and 50%.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 207 AM MST Wed Feb 25 2026

Active weather continued for the next few days with several rounds of high winds, mountain snowfall, and elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. Broad upper-level ridging is expected across the western CONUS through at least Friday evening. A very strong 250mb jet is associated with this ridge, with jet speeds up to about 150kts. Am upper-level trough across southeastern Canada and upper- level ridge over the southwestern CONUS are helping increase the jet strength by strengthening height gradients across the CWA. With generally northwest flow aloft with the broad ridge, multiple shortwave will be able to advect across the region, leading to the continued high wind chances across the region. Broad 500mb cyclonic vorticity advection will help amplify the ridge out west, while providing enough additional synoptic support for the snow expected across the Sierra Madres and Snowies today. This band of CVA pushes out of the region Thursday afternoon/evening, helping end snow chances across the mountains. Back to today, 700mb flow remains very elevated with a 700mb jet between 60 to 65 kts across the Laramie Range throughout the day today and into Thursday morning. A very strong 700mb low is moving west to east across southern and southeastern Canada with a 700mb ridge developing across the Desert Southwest. As a result, these 700mb winds will remain elevated through the end of the week. Winds have decreased overnight tonight during a lull with 700mb winds decreasing slightly, however, by 5 AM high winds are expected to come roaring back as the 700mb jet strengthens to 65 kts and subsidence along the Laramie Range starts to maximize once more. In addition to this, surface pressure gradients will start increasing once more, with a 3 to 4 mb gradient across the Laramie Range near Bordeaux and near the Arlington wind prone area. In-house random forest guidance remains at about an 80% chance for high winds at both Arlington and Bordeaux, with Cheyenne around 25-30% chance, which is quite good for Cheyenne given the lower number of training cases for this model. If that was not enough, Craig to Casper gradients remain very high between about 70 and 75m, further supporting continued high winds at Arlington. As a result, keep all High Wind Warnings in effect. A brief lull in winds is possible again this evening from about 5 PM through 11 PM, but then 700mb gradients increase once more along with subsidence and pressure gradients across the CWA. However, this lull is not expected to be long enough to warrant a new High Wind Warnings, so decided to extend Arlington, Bordeaux, the I-80 Summit, Foothills, and Central Laramie County to 11 AM Thursday morning and 8 AM Thursday morning for Central Laramie County. As a final note, with high winds comes warm temperatures. High temperatures today will be in the 50s to mid-60s east of the Laramie Range and 50s west of the Laramie Range, leading to yet another above average day today. Fire weather concerns are also expected through the end of the week, but will talk about that in a later paragraph...

As for the snow expected in the higher terrain today, southwesterly to westerly flow will continue throughout much of the day, leading to favorable upslope for the Sierra Madres and Snowies. Additionally, NAEFS Mean Integrated WV Transport maxes out across much of the region this afternoon and evening, leading to continued snowfall across the mountains. After decreasing QPF a touch, due to models running a bit hot, still got another 9 to 12 inches for the mountains throughout the advisory time. Estimated snowfall in the mountains was between about 6 and 9 inches as of midnight, with a couple higher elevation sites around 10 to 12 inches. With the additional snow expected today, Winter Storm Warning criteria looks likely over the next couple of hours. Additionally, with winds likely gusting upwards of 75mph this afternoon, blowing snow could lead to dangerous, whiteout conditions for hikers and snowmobilers in the mountains. Therefore, decided to upgrade the Winter Weather Advisory for a Winter Storm Warning. Snowfall starts to come to an end around 5 PM this evening, so no changes to the end time of the Winter Weather Advisory for the Winter Storm Warning.

Upper-level ridging will start to amplify Thursday morning through the day, leading to northwesterly flow across the CWA with the ridge axis remaining just west of the CWA along the Rockies. Weak 500mb anticyclonic vorticity advection is expected throughout the day, so the upper-level ridge is not expected to propagate eastward much throughout the day. Therefore, northwesterly flow is expected to continue through Friday evening and likely into the weekend. 700mb flow will continue to be elevated Thursday as a 700mb Alberta Clipper dives southeasterly from Alberta, Canada, towards the Midwest. This low is progged to be quite strong, with the surface low also strengthening into Friday morning. As a result of the nearby low passage, 700mb height gradients remain strong with a 50 to 55 kt jet expected after a brief lull in the morning hours Thursday. Strong subsidence is expected once more along the Laramie Range and points east. Surface pressure gradients increase early Thursday morning back to around 3 to 4 mb across the Laramie Range. Combined with strong subsidence and a strong 700mb jet, along with Craig to Casper height gradients between 60 and 65 m, high winds are anticipated to continue throughout at least Thursday morning, with the possibility of extended into Friday as well. As mentioned earlier, High Wind Warnings for the typical wind prone area and Central Laramie County have been extended through Thursday morning. The brief lull overnight is not expected to be long enough to warrant two separate High Wind Warnings, and winds will still be quite elevated during the lull just not at High Wind Warning criteria. Once again, strong winds Thursday will lead to another above average day with high temperatures east of the Laramie Range in the mid-50s to low-60s, and mid-40s west of the Laramie Range. Dry conditions will continue with the strong downsloping winds, leading to increased fire weather concerns. More about this a little later...

High winds are expected to continue Friday morning into early Saturday morning as 700mb flow remains elevated and the Alberta Low continues its propagation. The 700mb jet will be around 60kts once again Friday morning with strong subsidence expected once more. Craig to Casper gradients will remain in the upper-50s to mid-60s, with in-house random forest guidance suggesting 60 to 70% chances for high winds at Arlington and Bordeaux. Therefore, high winds will not be leaving anytime soon. Did decide not to extend the High Wind Warning into Friday morning as another lull will be possible. Will let the day crew take another look at model guidance to determine if another extension is warranted or if a new High Wind Warning is needed. Warm and dry conditions continue Friday with downsloping winds dropping relative humidity and increasing temperatures into the mid-50s to mid-60s east of the Laramie Range. No precipitation is expected on Friday.

The final topic to discuss will be elevated to critical fire weather conditions over the next several days. Starting with Thursday, residual moisture across the region will help afternoon minimum relative humidity values remain above critical thresholds, likely in the 25 to 40% range this afternoon, despite winds gusting upwards of 60 mph. However, these winds will help continually dry out the surface, leading to drier conditions each day high winds persist. As a result, afternoon relative humidity values on Thursday are expected to drop into the 15 to 25% range east of the Laramie Range and especially along the I-80 corridor where downsloping winds are expected to persist. With winds looking to gust upwards of 40mph on Thursday and up to 60mph closer to the Laramie Range, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued from 11 AM Thursday through 5 PM Thursday. Overnight recoveries are expected to be in the 35-50% range, potentially lower is high winds persist into Thursday night across this region. Critical fire weather conditions are expected Friday after three straight days of strong, downsloping winds. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values will tank into the 10 to 15% range along and east of the Laramie Range, with the third push of stronger winds leading to gusts up to at least 40mph for these same areas. Have not issued Fire Weather Headlines at this time for Friday, but will let day crew take another look and potentially issue for Friday afternoon or extend the current Fire Weather Watch through Friday evening, especially if overnight recoveries Thursday into Friday decrease rather than improve from currently forecast values.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 207 AM MST Wed Feb 25 2026

Upper-level ridging is expected to continue through much of the weekend as more benign weather returns to the region. However, on Sunday, and upper-level trough starts to dip down into the West Coast, leading to the CWA downstream of the trough axis. This will support synoptic lift across the CWA Sunday afternoon. Multiple lobes of 500mb vorticity will eject out ahead of this trough, leading to multiple rounds of enhanced CVA across the CWA and subsequent synoptic lift. Therefore, widespread precipitation chances look to return late Saturday night into the early morning hours Sunday and continuing through at least Wednesday morning when the upper-level trough finally ejects out of the region. While most locations will see increasing precipitation chances, only about a 30 to 50% probability of precipitation is expected each day across much of the region. Thankfully, 700mb flow looks to decrease significantly under the ridge this weekend through next week, so winds are expected to be much lower late this weekend into early next week.

700mb temperatures will remain fairly steady throughout the weekend into early portions of next week ahead of the incoming trough. Therefore, above average temperatures are expected Saturday through much of the week. Daily high temperatures in the 50s and 60s are expected east of the Laramie Range, with 40s and 50s west. Monday looks to be the coolest day with temperatures in the upper-40s to mid-50s expected everywhere.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1040 AM MST Wed Feb 25 2026

Showers are just north of KCDR and may start raining within the next hour or so. Those showers are expected to drop south that will slowly weaken the further south it goes and the clouds are moving southeast. The Nebraska Panhandle is more likely to have the showers reach the terminals within the next 6 hours. There is a slight chance these showers could be develop a convective aspect and produce lightning this afternoon. The southern and western terminals of KCYS, KLAR, and KRWL aren't expected to have rain showers hit the terminals within the next 6hrs. Low level windshear is going to make an appearance overnight after 03z through 15z Thursday.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon for WYZ430>433. High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ108-119. High Wind Warning until 9 PM MST this evening for WYZ104-105- 107-109-115. High Wind Warning until 11 AM MST Thursday for WYZ106-110-116- 117. Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ112- 114. High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for WYZ113. High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST Thursday for WYZ118. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday afternoon for NEZ435>437. High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NEZ019-020- 054-055.