textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle. Critical fire weather conditions expected.

- Record warmth will continue this afternoon through Saturday.

- Cooler, though still above average, temperatures return Sunday behind a cold front. Isolated to widely scattered precipitation chances expected with this frontal passage.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 230 AM MDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Another pretty mild night/early morning for most areas with current temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s for southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska. The more sheltered valleys are the coolest, with 2:00 AM readings in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees for Alliance and Chadron. This will set the stage for a very warm first day of Spring across the region. Models continue to show the strong 595dm upper level high drifting a bit further east today with 700mb temperatures above 10c for most of the eastern plains. Expect another round of record high temperatures this afternoon with highs ranging from the mid 70s (west of I-25) to mid 80s (east). Most locations should see daily record highs again this afternoon.

As we head into the weekend, all models continue to be consistent and show the strong upper level high remaining near the four corners region through Saturday with a slight drift southward as Pacific upper level energy begins to push east across the Pacific northwest and across the far northern states. Still looks like Saturday will be the warmest (hottest?) day as the upper level flow becomes more zonal with dry/warm downslope westerly winds increasing through the day. NAEFS continues to place southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska in the all-time high area for 700mb and 500mb temperatures and geopotential height. Adjust temperatures on Saturday to reflect current trends and model biases over the last few days. Current forecast suggest not only all-time record highs for the month of March, but a few locations may also tie or be slightly warmer than the all-time highs for April! Current forecast shows 93 for Chadron and Alliance, 92 for Sidney, 94 for Scottsbluff, and 84 for Cheyenne. Can't really consider Rawlins and Laramie on the cooler side, with forecast highs of 77 and 79 respectively Saturday afternoon. There is still a low to moderate chance some mid to high cloud cover may interfere with these temperatures, but expect these clouds to increase mid to late afternoon instead of earlier in the day. Outside of fire weather concerns, minimal to no impacts expected with pleasant weather.

For Saturday night, all models show the next cold front moving southward across the high plains with 700mb temperatures lowering between 0c-5c behind the front. Increased POP north of I-80, but didn't add any mention of precip until Sunday afternoon.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 245 PM MDT Thu Mar 19 2026

A shortwave trough passing north of our area will help to flatten the ridge this weekend. A cold front associated with this passage will make its way south into our area overnight Saturday. Temperatures are expected to drop 20 to 30 degrees from Saturday's high temperatures, yet staying slightly above average for most of the area. Precipitation chances are unfortunately not impressive with the arrival of this system. GEFS ensemble is showing only about a 10-15% chance of measurable precipitation Sunday. However, given a shallow saturated layer, we cannot rule out periods of drizzle throughout the day over I-25 and points east and flurries at higher elevations.

After our frontal passage, the ridge begins to settle back in across the western CONUS early next week. Expect another round of warmth well above average for the area this time of year, peaking Wednesday. Records again may be broken with ensemble means reaching 80F. Tuesday, a 700mb shortwave may pass through the area increasing strong wind potentials. Internal guidance has about 50% probabilities of high winds. We should not let our guard down concerning fire weather with these conditions. Thursday may present another change to the ridging pattern with an upper-level system passage. Model guidance is naturally diverging at this range, but there is a signal for a cold front passage. Both numerical GEFS and AI ensemble members depict a drop in temperatures. It is too far out to hone in on precip. chances at this time, however given the recent pattern and likely lack of moisture sources in guidance, the odds are not great.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 545 AM MDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Strong upper level high pressure will remain south of the region today, resulting in record high temperatures and mostly sunny skies.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period with occasional SCT high level cloudiness. Winds will become breezy out of the southwest between 16z and 23z, mainly for the southeast Wyoming terminals with gusts up to 30 knots.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT Saturday for WYZ417>423-425- 427>433. NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT Saturday for NEZ434>437.