textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold temperatures Saturday and Sunday morning alongside breezy winds, but insulating cloud cover may once again prevent cold weather highlights despite breezy conditions.

- Next widespread high wind event expected on Tuesday, with periods of very windy conditions continuing through Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 130 AM MST Sat Feb 21 2026

Current observations and IR Satellite 10.3-3.9 um fog products shows mostly clear conditions north of I-80 with some low cloudiness lingering along and south of the I-80 corridor from Carbon county to the southern NE panhandle early this morning. Some fog has been reported at a few locations, mainly across the far southern Nebraska Panhandle. Otherwise, just low ceilings have been observed. Any remnant light snow has diminished outside of the mountains, so kept additional accumulations near zero through sunrise. Clouds and any fog should lift around sunrise with temperatures on Saturday not as cold as the past few days...with high temperatures climbing slowly into the 30s or around 30 in the colder valleys with a current snow pack. Models show a weak disturbance digging south around the backside of the upper level trough that pushed south of the region today. This feature may result in winds increasing over some of the wind prone areas, but not expecting gusts over 50 MPH at this time. Other than that, some cloud cover and brief flurries are possible with this weak disturbance well north of I-80.

For Sunday and Monday, all models show another ridge of high pressure aloft drifting into the region. This will result in warmer temperatures and likely a melting snowpack across the region. On Sunday, 700mb temperatures are forecast to climb above -5c with highs at the surface slowly warming into the upper 30s to mid 40s. Another cold morning Sunday morning with lows in the single digits for most areas, but not as cold Monday morning with increasing winds across southeast Wyoming. With increasing melting of snow pack, and high pressure aloft moving over the area, there is some concern of fog. SREF VIS < 3 miles probabilities are highest (~30% to 40%) over east central Wyoming and most of the valleys of western Nebraska. Therefore, added patchy fog to the forecast late Sunday night. Otherwise, 700mb temperatures will climb above 0c on Monday with highs returning to the 40s and 50s. Did not go quite as high as guidance suggests due to lingering snowpack, so kept highs around the 25th to 50th percentile for now.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued 140 AM MST Sat Feb 21 2026

Previous forecast and discussion look on track with a windy week looking likely. The strongest winds should be over the wind prone areas with all in-house wind guidance showing high probabilities from early Tuesday morning through the end of the week. A little more unclear for the sub-wind prone areas and the high plains with brief/limited low level subsidence. Late Tuesday and Wednesday look like the best chance for strong winds across the sub-wind prone areas and the eastern Wyoming high plains with models indicating some mountain wave activity associated with the next Pacific upper level trough and associated cold front.

Previous LONG TERM forecast discussion... Issued at 220 PM MST Fri Feb 20 2026

Sticking to the theme of this winter season, the long term period will start out with anomalously warm temperatures, especially in locations east of the Laramie Range with maximum temperatures approaching 60 degrees. In fact, ensemble guidance has our Nebraska counties with high temperatures in the mid-60s. This is all thanks to a longwave ridge over the Mountain West, which will begin to dampen, placing the CWA in a northwesterly flow regime.

The main story into the middle of next week will be the wind. In- house random forest guidance has been consistent with this event, with greater than 60% likelihood of seeing gusts exceeding 60 mph in the high wind hot spots such as Arlington in the vicinity of the Snowy Range. Even Cheyenne and other locations along the I-25 corridor are showing an increasing likelihood of an impactful wind event. This will be dependent on the location of where the mountain wave breaks in the lee of the Laramie Range, and is also seen on the omega fields which are indicating strong subsidence. Wednesday will feature cooler maximum temperatures (though still 5-10 degrees above average), and yet another day of gusty winds. Winds seem to relax slightly on Thursday before ramping back up again on Friday as we remain in a WNW flow regime aligned with a 65-70 knot 700 mb jet. Above-average temperatures will continue into the end of the work week.

As for precipitation, ensemble guidance has backed off on QPF for the the Thursday-Friday period, with the any moisture likely being confined to the mountains. With the latest Drought Monitor classifying much of our CWA as being in either severe or extreme drought, the prospect of meaningful precipitation is minimal throughout the forecast period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 445 AM MST Sat Feb 21 2026

A weak disturbance aloft will move across the Great Plains today. Other than some breezy to locally windy conditions late this morning and this afternoon, partly cloudy skies are expected with relatively quiet weather.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will prevail for most terminals. Primary concern early this morning is lingering low CIGS and fog for KAIA and KSNY. KSNY wind direction has recently shifted into the west, so do not expect any more MVFR conditions this morning. Added VCFG and a low SCT deck for KAIA over the next few hours with an area of low clouds moving through the area until 14z. Breezy conditions expected at most terminals with west to northwest winds gusting up to 25 knots. KLAR and KRWL will see occasional gusts around 30 knots this afternoon from the southwest.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...None. NE...None.