textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for most of southeast Wyoming and the Nebraska panhandle today through this evening. Critical fire weather conditions expected.

- Record warmth will continue Saturday with all-time record high temperatures for the month of March likely.

- Cooler, though still above average, temperatures return Sunday behind a cold front. Isolated showers possible with this frontal passage Sunday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 235 AM MDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Not many changes to the forecast for this weekend, with record setting temperatures still on track for Saturday. Still expect a cool front to push south across the area late tonight. Although this front will bring cooler air for Sunday, still expect high temperatures Sunday afternoon to be 5 to 10 degrees above average for late March.

All models show the 593-595dm upper level high nearly stationary for much of the day today and finally drifting southeast into New Mexico. Flow aloft will become more zonal for the Front Range and increase through the day as the next "cool" front slides south across Montana and northern Wyoming. NAEFS continues to show 700mb and 500mb temperatures and geopotential height at all-time highs for this time of the year with very little change compared to 24 to 48 hours ago. Kept forecast temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s for southeast Wyoming, and in the low 90s for Torrington and all of western Nebraska. Decided to keep high temperatures a few degrees shy of the all- time record high temperatures for the month of April due to: (a) how unlikely this event typically is and (b) high clouds are expected to increase from northwest to southeast, which will likely result in slightly less warming mid to late afternoon. Either way, Most all-time record high temperatures for the month of March will be tied or broken. It's going to be on the hot side for locations east of the Interstate 25 corridor. Outside of fire weather concerns, minimal to no impacts expected.

For Saturday night and Sunday, models continue to show the next cold front moving southward across the high plains with 700mb temperatures lowering between 0c-5c behind the front. Afternoon temperatures will be 20 to 30 degrees cooler compared to Saturday, but this is still 5 to 10 degrees above average for this time of the year with afternoon temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s. Winds are expected to shift into the east along and east of the Laramie Range with increasing dewpoints and higher humidities, which should temporarily end our widespread fire weather concerns. As for precipitation, models have backed off on scattered shower activity across southeast Wyoming. With ample instability Sunday afternoon and evening, can't rule out some weak rain showers over the area, including the northern Nebraska panhandle late Sunday and Sunday night. It will be awfully dry above the surface, so most of the activity may just stay as virga with not much precip reaching the surface.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 313 PM MDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Sunday's reprieve from the warm pattern will be brief however, as the upper level ridge re-strengthens and its influence spreads back over our region beginning Monday. Dry air will start advecting east in from the Intermountain West and desert regions, along with substantial surface mixing during the day, will send relative humidity values back down into the teens. This is despite overcast conditions most of Monday and Tuesday. Overnight humidity recoveries are poor with how dry the surface has been, only reaching 40 to 50% values. Daily maximum temperature records are likely to break again on Wednesday as highs soar into the 80s and possibly 90s over the plains regions. Another concern is the arrival of stronger 700mb flow influenced by several embedded shortwaves that tighten the pressure gradients Tuesday and Wednesday. Internal machine learning guidance highlights elevated probabilities of 40 to 50% that our wind prones reach high wind criteria. These conditions do point towards elevated fire weather concerns, particularly Wednesday.

Overnight Wednesday a cold front passage is being advertised in the guidance. An upper level trough riding along the US/Canadian boarder will push the ridge back south and east out of our region temporarily. We may even see temperatures return to average. Unfortunately, this front is likely to be on the dry side with limited support from GEFS ensemble members of any measurable precipitation.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1140 AM MDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Breezy at terminals today. Wind gusts range from 35-40 knots at the Southeastern Wyoming terminals and 25-30 at the Nebraska terminals. Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions are expected through today. Overnight high cloudcover begins to build as an upper level system moves in. Winds lax a little and turn more northerly before the arrival of a coldfront. A sharp increase of winds to 30 to 40 knots from the north/northeast will be felt at the Nebraska Panhandle terminals between about 4 and 6z. Ceilings may lower to 2 thousand feet at Nebraska terminals as low level cloud coverage increases.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for WYZ417>423- 425-427>433. NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NEZ434>437.