textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot, dry and breezy conditions expected through the end of the week.

- Monsoon flow in the long term intensifies, lowering our afternoon highs and increasing rain chances.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 207 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Benign weather is expected to continue for the next few days as the stagnant upper-level ridge over the center of the country remains in place. The ridge will gradually weaken in the coming days, leading to a *slight* reduction in temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday. Instead of widespread highs in the 90s and low 100s, some locations will see a return to the upper 80s. Regardless, high temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees above average for this time of year, with the Heat Advisory continuing through midnight Wednesday night. Mostly sunny skies are expected on Wednesday, with a slight breeze across the area that may give a light reprieve from the heat. Thursday, there will likely be a noticeable difference in clouds, especially west of the Laramie Range Thursday evening. There will be a push of monsoon moisture into western Colorado and western Wyoming on Thursday. A weak upper- level disturbance will trigger shower and storm development, however most, if not all storms, should remain west of the CWA. But, the extra moisture could cause a bit more cloud cover later in the day. Some models show an isolated shower developing in the Sierra Madre or Snowy Range, so cannot rule out a brief shower Thursday afternoon and evening in the high terrain.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Issued at 207 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

A mostly clear and temperate night is in store Thursday night. Lows in the mid 50s in the basins and mid 60s for the foothills and plains areas. The ridge is still dominating the weather at the start of the long term, though it appears that it will be weakening slightly compared to what it was this past weekend. A retrograding cut off low to our south will lower dam heights overhead and elongate the ridge axis. Monsoonal moisture streaming in on the western edge of the ridge will reach the area and may promote a few showers and storms, particularly for higher elevations near the Snowy and Sierra Madre Ranges and points west. The mean flow will cause storms to drift southwest. High temperatures in the 90s to low 100s and clear skies are most likely for the majority of us. Humidity values will be low for most of the area, but thankfully winds will not be very strong and values don't stay below 15 percent long enough to warrant a red flag warning at this time. However, conditions would suggest elevated fire concerns.

This type of pattern holds for the next few days. The ridge builds slightly as the upper level low slowly decays well to our south. Daily afternoon showers and storms in the mountains and western counties of our CWA are possible. Temperatures climb slightly each day with more places hitting the 100s east of I-25, with Saturday and Sunday appearing to be the hottest days. Elevated fire weather continues.

The monsoonal flow continues to be advected north from the Pacific Ocean during this time. Interestingly our weather could be influenced by tropical cyclone activity starting Monday. A disturbance is forming in the East Pacific which could mature and move northwest ahead of upper level troughing off the west coast. Moisture from this cyclone would then be channeled north in this troughing flow and add to the monsoon. This is dependent on the track of the future system and would only impact the available moisture content of the monsoon and jet positions for our area. The deterministic GFS is producing widespread PWATs of above 1 inch starting Monday. While an imperfect proxy to gauging the magnitude of this moisture, we turn to the Riverton PWAT climate for this period. The maximum measured PWAT for this time is between 1.10 and 1.20 inches. The GFS is giving PWATs of 1.10 inches for the Rawlins area. So in other words the atmosphere will be holding an anomalously high amount of moisture. Storms and showers chances naturally increase with all this ambient moisture. Some of these storms could produce heavy rains. The WPC has marginal excessive rainfall outlooks for areas west with the current monsoonal flow, so it would not be that far of a stretch that future outlooks cover our area as well for this period. With increasing moisture the extra cloud coverage will keep afternoon temperatures in check with hopefully most locations staying below 100. This moisture is expected to linger into Tuesday, so much the same weather can be expected then.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 945 PM MDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Upper level high will drift eastward over the next 24 hours allowing some moisture to move into the area on Wednesday and later in the week. Winds will remain out of the south to southeast over the next 24 hours.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions will continue over all terminals. Gusty south to southeast winds up to 30 knots, mainly between 17z and 02z. Winds will remain gusty at KCDR tonight and likely Wednesday night due to the low level jet.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT Wednesday for WYZ417>420-423- 427-430>433. Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Wednesday night for WYZ101- 102-107-108-118-119. NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT Wednesday for NEZ434>437. Heat Advisory until midnight MDT Wednesday night for NEZ002- 003-019>021-054-055-095-096.