textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warnings continue for the Nebraska panhandle through Friday evening.

- Next chance for precipitation returns during the weekend alongside cooler conditions. Severe weather will be possible both Saturday and Sunday.

- A potential late season snowfall event is taking shape to start the work week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 254 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

Poor overnight humidity recoveries across much of the CWA has led to a rapid decline in relative humidity this afternoon. Current observations show widespread critical relative humidity values, with much of the area showing single digit relative humidity. A trough passing north of the CWA has also created windy conditions across both southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska. Wind gusts in excess of 40 MPH have also been observed in much of the forecast area. This combination has caused critical/increased fire danger for the area. A Red Flag Warning remains in place through Friday evening for the Nebraska panhandle for the fire danger, as well as a Special Weather Statement for southeast Wyoming. Luckily, winds will weaken overnight as the trough moves on to the east. Despite the lighter winds, overnight humidity recoveries are still expected to be poor with the very dry airmass still in place.

Unfortunately, similar conditions are once again forecast for Friday. Temperatures will be virtually the same as Thursday, with highs in the 70s and 80s. This is about 10 to 15 degrees above average for mid-May. A zonal flow pattern will persist leading to yet another breezy day. Fortunately, winds will be weaker than Thursday, with gusts of about 30 MPH. Conditions will be just as dry with another widespread day of relative humidity in the single digits. Fire weather will once again be the main concern through the day with mostly sunny skies. Winds will once again ease overnight, but humidity recoveries remain on the poorer side.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 254 PM MDT Thu May 14 2026

Saturday afternoon there looks to be some potential for severe weather ahead of the trough. Lapse rates look to bounce between 8.6 to 9.4 promoting the idea of the severe storm potential. However, depending on how fast the trough gets here will determine how fast the winds shift from Southwest flow to a flat zonal flow. This will effectively cutoff the moisture advection into the region and downslope flow may dry out and prevention any lifting of surface moisture. Saturday into Sunday, an upper level trough will push its way into the Pacific Northwest and send a front through the Intermountain West. Some lobes of vorticity looks to accompany this front to aide in the synoptic lift to help produce some weak showers in the late afternoon to evening time period. By Sunday afternoon, the trough becomes more positively tilted pushing some strong warm air advection and vorticity lobes to give us some possibly strong rain showers through Sunday evening. As this upper level trough pushes through the Intermountain West Sunday night into Monday, the 700mb temperature gradient goes from a warm 8 to 10C and drops down to about -6/-5C giving us a decent chance for a rain/snow mix to possibly snow showers in the higher elevations above 7,000ft early Monday morning and Monday night. During the day the summer sun is likely to keep all the precipitation as rain outside the mountain peaks for Southeast Wyoming. This trough is the start of an active weather pattern for the work week as we look to get the chance for precipitation almost every other day.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1133 AM MDT Thu May 14 2026

A dry airmass will be moving into the region to keep the terminals dry for the next 36 hours at least despite the trough moving in. Winds will be switching to Westerly flow this afternoon and possible light and variable overnight. Around 14z the wind gusts should return.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for WYZ106-110- 116. NE...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT Friday for NEZ434>437.