textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect cooler temperatures Friday with south to southeast winds developing. These winds may be strong at times tonight over the High Plains.

- Another round of near record warmth and critical fire weather conditions is expected Saturday through Monday. A few high- based virga showers will be possible each evening.

- Improved chances for precipitation return to start April in the middle part to latter part of next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

A cooler airmass is in place across the area this morning, providing a break from the persistent record breaking warm temperatures. Moisture is present below about 700-mb, but the airmass between 300 and 700-mb is extremely dry, which is limiting rain and snow shower activity. Still, we have some low clouds present, which may lower and produce patchy fog across portions of the area, mainly along the Pine Ridge and southern Laramie Range. The probability of any decent rainfall is quite minimal today, but we may see some light sprinkles out of this morning's low clouds and weak, shallow upslope flow. Skies will remain mostly cloudy for much of the area today. Even as low cloud cover gradually decreases through the day, high cloud cover will increase, limiting sunshine. As a result, temperatures were nudged down towards the NBM 25th percentile this afternoon. The surface ridge axis will move through the area around sunrise, after which time the very strong surface high pressure system will begin to pull off to the east. As pressure falls from west to east, southerly winds will be on the increase. The Laramie area will be the first to see southeast winds get gusty this morning, as is typical when a surface high parks up against the Laramie Range. Southerly winds will increase through the day over the rest of southeast Wyoming, and spread into western Nebraska this afternoon and evening. A very strong reverse-pressure gradient will setup across the High Plains this evening, setting up an impressive nocturnal low-level jet. Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph will develop first around Laramie and the I-80 summit late this afternoon, and then spread into the elevated terrain of the High Plains this evening. The best chance for a few gusts exceeding 50 mph will be along the north side of the Cheyenne ridge (northern Laramie, southern Platte, southern Goshen, Banner counties), and along the Pine Ridge from Douglas to Chadron. There is about a 30% chance for a few gusts over 60 mph in this area, but this probability is too low to add a High Wind headline.

The usual programming of this season will resume Saturday as the powerful ridge over the southern Rockies rebounds. Rapid warm air advection will push 700-mb temperatures back to the climatological 99th percentile by Saturday afternoon, and remain in this ballpark through Monday. Expect widespread highs in the 70s to low 80s once again. This round of warmth won't be a slam dunk record at every single long term climate site like the last two rounds, but expect a few daily records to be broken each day. New monthly records set recently should remain safe.

The main concern with the return of the warmth will be the return of fire weather concerns once again. On Saturday, gusty southerly winds will be on the decrease over the High Plains, but the surface trough will spread eastward and increase westerly winds over southeast Wyoming. Widespread gusts of 30 to 45 mph are expected to lead to critical fire weather conditions once again. For western Nebraska, the southerly winds will be going too early, while the RH is still high, and then the westerlies may not quite reach the area in time. However, models show the surface trough pulling east of our coverage area on Sunday, allowing westerly winds to spread across the entire area for Sunday and Monday. As a result, a Fire Weather Watch was issued for southeast Wyoming beginning Saturday and continuing through Monday evening, while western Nebraska joins Sunday morning through Monday evening. RH recoveries will be fairly poor overnight, generally between 35 and 50%, so the product will run all the way through the night. In addition to the typical gusty winds and low humidity threat, we will unfortunately have potential for high-based virga showers each day during the late afternoon and evening hours. Despite the boundary layer remaining extremely dry, models are in fairly good agreement showing much better moisture in the 300 to 700- mb layer. We also may be looking at a vort-max passing through the area well timed to just follow peak heating each day. Instability looks limited, but non-zero, so there will be potential (10% at this time) for some isolated dry lightning along with gusty and erratic winds in the vicinity of this activity. With strong background flow already producing synoptic winds around 30 to 45 mph, it may not take too much to get a few gusts of 60 mph or greater, especially around the wind prone areas.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Confidence is increasing in a large-scale pattern change finally breaking the persistent record breaking warmth over the western CONUS as we reach the last day of March and into the first few days of April. The powerful upper level ridge will shift east into the southeast part of the country, which will allow for a series of Pacific troughs with access to moisture to move inland. Confidence is high in a sustained cool down (though there may still be periods of unusual warmth between systems), but low in the details. Ensembles are still evenly fairly split between two potential storm tracks. The first, which is represented by the latest deterministic GFS and favored by more of the GEFS members, takes most of the Pacific troughs just north of the area. In this scenario, the mountains would still see decent chances for accumulating snowfall, but downslope flow over the rest of the area would limited precipitation potential. This scenario would also be considerably windier. The second scenario is favored by a majority of ECMWF ensemble members and could allow for one or two Pacific troughs to track south of the area. The resulting upslope flow would bring improved chances for appreciable (and much needed) precipitation for the High Plains. This will continue to be monitored over the next several days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1139 AM MDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Low ceilings are still being observed over most Southeastern Wyoming and the Panhandle Nebraska terminals, except KLAR and KRWL which have cleared up. All terminals are expected to remain at VFR criteria today. Winds generally out of the south to southeast at 10 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots for most terminals. Higher gusts to 40 knots at the KCYS and KLAR terminals this evening. Overnight winds ramp up at the Nebraska terminals as a low level jet develops. Locally stronger winds at KCDR are possible with a 50 percent chance of 50 knot gusts. At KAIA and KSNY wind gusts are expected to max out around 40 knots. LLWS is also a concern at KCYS, KSNY, KAIA, and KCDR during the overnight into the early morning hours. Expect breezy conditions to continue going into tomorrow morning.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Monday evening for WYZ417>423-425-427>433. NE...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening for NEZ434>437.