textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Winds will increase tonight into Monday morning in the wind prone areas, with a few gusts to around 60 mph expected.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are expected on Monday over the High Plains.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 1238 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

February will continue to start off on a fairly quiet note as an upper-level ridge breaks down early this morning and a shortwave races across the region. This shortwave will bring a weak cold front north to south through the region late tonight into Tuesday morning, dropping temperatures back into the 40s after another day in the mid- 40s to mid-50s today. Looking closer at today, mainly this morning, 700mb height gradients are elevated across the CWA as we remain sandwiched between a 700mb high over California and a 700mb low moving into the Great Lakes region. As a result, an increased 700mb has developed, between about 45 to 50kts. This is a touch weaker than what was progged yesterday by models, therefore, the High Wind Warnings have yet to verify. However, a stronger push of subsidence is modeled by the GFS between about 09Z and 12Z, which looks to be the most likely time for the wind prones to see high winds this morning. Therefore, kept the High Wind Warning in effect through 8AM, as this is when the best 700mb jet and subsidence is expected to decrease back to less elevated criteria. With the subsidence along the Laramie Range tonight, temperatures have remains very mild tonight, especially along the I-25 corridor. Most locations are sitting in the mid-40s to mid-50s, compared to previous days' lows in the 20s and 30s. Weaker downslope will continue throughout the afternoon hours, leading to highs in the low- to mid-50s once again.

In addition to the gusty winds expected throughout the day today, thanks to downsloping flow, elevated fire weather conditions will develop this afternoon. Relative humidity values will drop into the 20 to 25% range for much of the area. With gusty winds accompanying these lower relative humidity values, fire spread becomes more likely, especially with the above average temperatures expected today. As of now, it does not look like Red Flag criteria will be met along and east of the Laramie Range, but elevated conditions look to be ongoing this afternoon. Conditions improve tonight as relative humidity values recover to above 50+% with recoveries as high as 80% possible across portions of the region.

Cloud cover will steadily increase overnight Monday into early Tuesday morning as the upper-level shortwave begins to push through the region, along with the weak cold front. Gusty surface winds look to continue behind the cold front throughout much of the day Tuesday into early Wednesday morning. A strong ridge is developing behind this shortwave across the western CONUS, but the nose of the upper- level trough will begin to push into the region Tuesday afternoon, leading to increased rising motion in the left exit region of the jet. This increased riding motion should enable a few isolated snow showers to develop, mainly across the Panhandle and the mountains of southeast Wyoming, due to broad upslope flow. These snow showers are not expected to produce much in the way of precipitation, but a light dusting cannot be completely ruled out, with maybe 1 to 3 inches in the mountains at the highest peaks. Precipitation comes to an end Wednesday morning as the upper-level ridge, and subsequent subsidence, move overhead, cutting off any significant lift across the region.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 1238 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

No major changes, see previous discussion below...

Long term remains quiet overall as high pressure brings above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions. Tuesday is the busiest day of the long term, with a shortwave and front bringing cooler conditions and a quick glancing shot of precipitation for the CWA. For temperatures - while cooler compared to the weekend, highs remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal both on Tuesday and into Wednesday, and will be in no way cold for this time of year. Meanwhile precipitation chances will be very limited as weak forcing alongside pitiful PWAT values will struggle to produce much more than a super quick and light hit of rain or snow across much of the central and eastern portions of the forecast area. Winds could also be breezy, but pressure gradients are meager and upper level winds paltry, with in house guidance producing a 25% probability for High Wind Warnings for Arlington at best. And then beyond Tuesday and Wednesday, the ridge over the Western US strengthens, bringing us back up to notably warmer than average temperatures. With such consistency and how models have struggled with warmer airmasses in the region, did a slight increase on highs for Thursday, with locations such as Cheyenne now knocking on the door for a daily record with temperatures in the low to mid 60's, putting us 20+ degrees above normal. After Thursday, the high elongates allowing us to "cool" down a few degrees, but we'll still remain 15 to 20 degrees above normal in the 50's to 60's with conditions remaining dry. Winter remains nowhere to be seen as our weather pattern feels more like spring than winter.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 403 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the 12Z TAF period. Gusty surface winds return to all terminals between 13 and 16Z, with gusts up to 30kts possible. Low-level wind shear may be present near KSNY until 15Z. After 15Z, gusty winds and clearing skies are expected at all terminals.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST this morning for WYZ106-116- 117. NE...None.