textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- High Wind Warning for southeast Wyoming and all of western Nebraska today for gusts up to 70 MPH. - Critical to Extreme fire danger expected starting Tuesday morning and continuing through Tuesday evening. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for areas east of the Laramie Range.

- Moderate to heavy mountain snowfall expected from Tuesday through Thursday this week, mainly above 8500 feet. A Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory are in effect.

- Snow squalls possible west of the Laramie Range Tuesday with the passage of a cold front. Snow squalls will again be possible for the same location Wednesday.

- Snowfall is possible over the Plains Wednesday night into Thursday, followed by temperatures falling below seasonal averages for the end of the week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 225 AM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

Active short term forecast is currently on track with only a few changes made through Wednesday night/early Thursday. Currently, low to midlevel cloudiness beginning to push into southern Wyoming ahead of the well-advertized Pacific storm system and associated cold front...set to arrive in the Rawlins and Laramie area over the next 4 to 6 hours. Winds have already gusted between 58 to 63 MPH over central Carbon County, western Albany county, and the Arlington/Elk Mountain wind prone zone along Interstate 80. Timing of this event, so far, looks good with no major changes expected. Main forecast concern over the next 4 to 6 hours will be the potential of snow squalls across Carbon and Albany county. High res model guidance (NAMNest and HRRR) continue to show bands of snow squalls moving into the counties between 400 AM and 700 AM local time, with the potential for a secondary band early in the afternoon. Model reflectively and QPF not quite as impressive as it was yesterday, but still shows several bands impacting the I-80 corridor. Could see a quick inch of snow and wind gusts up to 70 MPH as this activity rapidly moves east. Once the bands of snow/squalls reach the I-25 corridor and the Laramie Range, they will likely dissipate fast due to strong downslope flow off the Laramie Range. However, not totally convinced that the secondary band of snow squall activity this afternoon will miss the I-25 corridor with recent model trends a little more aggressive. This potential has also showed up in some of the short term ensemble data, likely relating to terrain-related convergence and low level instability.

HIGH WIND AND CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER concerns look on track for the rest of the day today. The last part of the High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a Warning for the western Nebraska Panhandle through this afternoon. Models have been very consistent and continue to show strong low level pressure gradients, significant low level subsidence, and 700mb winds between 65 to 70 knots through the day. Highest confidence is south central Wyoming, where conditions have already been met, and east central Wyoming including Douglas to Chugwater. Slightly lower confidence for the I-80 corridor east of Rawlins...but pretty confident with periodic gusts over 60 MPH. Moderate confidence for areas east of the I-25 corridor due to peak low to midlevel subsidence occurring at night instead of during the daytime. However, good boundary layer mixing up to 600 mb may make up for this. Red Flag Warning remains in effect for all of the high plains of southeast Wyoming (up to the Laramie Range foothills) and all of western Nebraska. Still expect very low humidities for this time of the year and gusts between 60 to 70 MPH. Poor humidity recoveries so far this morning haven't been terribly widespread and have mostly been confined to Platte and Converse County. Again, if there any ignitions today, the fire may spread very rapidly due to the considerably strong winds.

For the rest of the day and into Wednesday, mountain Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisories look on track to begin early this morning and continue through Wednesday night. The mountains should remain in light to moderate snowfall tonight and into Wednesday, even in-between storm systems, with decent upslope flow and some remaining instability. The lower elevations may see some flurries or light snow showers from time to time, but additional accumulations will be very light across southeast Wyoming...with no precip expected for western Nebraska until late Wednesday night. Could still see a few thunder showers this afternoon and possibly Wednesday afternoon across south central Wyoming, likely related to the second band of snow squalls. Kept a slight chance mention for thunder in these areas.

For Wednesday and Wednesday night, models continue to show the next negatively tilted trough ejecting northeast across Wyoming and the eastern high plains. This trough will have a decent amount of cold air with it as 700mb temperatures drop to -15c to -20c...so plenty cold enough for snow. Decided focus on one system at a time so our current messaging isn't lost. However, there is potential for a more widespread snowfall with this system Wednesday night and Thursday. Current snow accumulations are getting close to Winter Weather Advisory amounts with winds increasing out of the north and northwest. The 00z ECMWF has backed off on the evolution of a closed low forming to our southeast and shows a more progressive negatively tilted trough axis. Kept snow accumulations between 1 to 4 inches outside the mountains through late Wednesday night with POP between 50 to 80 percent.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 445 PM MST Mon Feb 16 2026

The active pattern continues into the long term, including more chances of precipitation followed by a slight warming trend and quick dryout over the weekend. Thursday night through Saturday morning, a passing Pacific Trough continues our chances of precipitation, including another shot at widespread light snow beyond the high terrain for our eastern zones Friday afternoon. That being said, accumulations are unsurprisingly coming in on the low side, with probabilities for greater than a a half an inch 20% or less outside of the high terrain of our western zones. But this system is bringing colder temperatures, and will actually drop us to highs that are below average for a change, with temperatures in the 30's to 40's on Friday and Saturday before returning to near normal on Sunday in the widespread 40's. Saturday and Sunday will see most of the region clear under ridging that will be taking back over, but look for some upslope flow to continue to promote isolated and light snow showers for the mountains during this timeframe. Finally our usual windiness can be expected as these systems pass across the region, but guidance isn't quite as excited for high winds as compared to the short term forecast period, with in house guidance only maxing at around 30% probability for high winds at Arlington Friday night into Saturday morning, with minimal probabilities elsewhere. Overall expect at least another shot at wintry precipitation for our area, but lessening impacts outside of cooler temperatures before warming returns as we move into next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 440 AM MST Tue Feb 17 2026

Active weather expected for Aviation across southeast Wyoming and western Nebraska. Strong winds, mountain snowfall, snow squalls, and some blowing dust expected as a strong Pacific system moves across the area today. A secondary disturbance will move over the area later Wednesday and Thursday, bringing snow and more wind to the region.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: VFR conditions expected for all western Nebraska terminals over the next 24 hours with primarily a wind forecast and some LLWS in between the strongest periods of wind. Gusts of 45 to 55 knots out of the west can be expected, but timing the stronger gusts will be tricky.

TAFs a bit more tricky for the southeast Wyoming terminals due to snow squall activity, and the potential for lingering heavy snow showers/snow squalls and even a few rumbles of thunder possible this afternoon. KRWL and KLAR have the best chance at seeing an hour or two of LIFR VIS conditions in snow squalls with wind gusts over 50 knots between 12z and 15z and again between 19z and 23z with VIS briefly between 1/4 mile to 1 mile. Can't completely rule out these conditions at KCYS, but confidence is much more limited due to strong downslope winds and considerable drying. Kept TEMPO groups for KLAR and KRWL for sudden reductions in VIS, but back to VFR once the squall(s) move through.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...Red Flag Warning from 5 AM early this morning to 6 PM MST this evening for WYZ417-418-430>433. High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening for WYZ102-108-119. High Wind Warning from 5 AM early this morning to 11 PM MST this evening for WYZ101-106-107-115>118. High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for WYZ104-109- 110. High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for WYZ105-111- 113. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for WYZ110. Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM early this morning to 5 AM MST Thursday for WYZ112. Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 5 AM MST Thursday for WYZ114.

NE...Red Flag Warning from 5 AM early this morning to 6 PM MST this evening for NEZ434>437. High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening for NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096.