textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- A widespread strong to locally damaging wind event remains on track for much of the area, with the strongest winds Thursday night through Friday afternoon.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected daily from Thursday onward due to gusty winds, low humidity, and dry fuels.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 222 PM MST Wed Jan 14 2026

Before we talk about the main weather story that will start in the short term and continue into the extended, lets first take a look at precipitation chances and temperatures. Initially, the upper level pattern will be dominated by ridging that pushes into the region, keeping precipitation chances at a minimum under a dry air mass. Switching to temperatures, with 700mb temperatures in the 0 to +2C range, highs today are expected to top out in the 40s west of I-25 and the low to mid 50s east of the corridor, warmest across the Nebraska Panhandle. Highs slightly cooler Thursday with cooler 700mb temps pushing in. Lows tonight will dip down into the upper 20s to low 30s for many locations across the CWA and colder Thursday night with lows tanking into the mid teens and low 20s.

Now for the main event, winds, yup, you read that right. Expect winds to really intensify Thursday evening for many locations in the CWA east of I-25 as a deep trough dives south out of Canada. This will interact with a dominate ridge across the West Coast, keeping strong northerly flow into our region at all levels (250mb to 700mb). This will guide a series, two, of shortwaves that will dive south into our CWA, with the first one tonight. This will be the weaker of the two and ahead of the main trough. The surface gradient will tighten tonight across the Laramie Range and surface wind speeds increase, especially for Bordeaux along I-25. With the lack of support aloft with this first shortwave, topography and gradient will cause the winds to strengthen as in-house guidance suggests probabilities of high winds near 40%. So, westerly gusts up to 55 mph are possible in this area through Thursday morning. Our CWA will become sandwiched between the ridge across the West Coast and the deep trough, as mentioned earlier, diving south out of Canada. As such, the flow aloft will be aligned north/south and will guide a more potent shortwave that pushes south along the western flank of the deep trough to our east right into our region. So, with all the ingredients coming together for this event Thursday night, expect the winds to really ramp up and become widespread, even across the Nebraska Panhandle, with west-northwest gusts to 70 mph and we are continuing to message this with a slue of High Wind Watches. Precipitation chances, the lesser story, will remain meager as these shortwaves slide through due to limited moisture. Even with this said, some of the newer guidance are increasing chances of precipitation across the higher terrain, and as such POPs have been increased with this forecast package for the Laramie and Snowy Ranges Thursday evening. Dont expect a whole lot of accumulations, generally a trace or less.

Another threat that bears watching for Thursday afternoon and hasn't been discussed yet, what are the fire weather concern? With ample dry conditions, minimum RH values dipping to near 20% and abundant dry fuels, the threat is there and is something that will be closely monitored. Stay tuned...

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 222 PM MST Wed Jan 14 2026

Over the long term forecast the ridge axis wobbles further west as a upper level low drops into the eastern Northern Plains/ Western Great lakes area. This will send a trough to pass through Nebraska tightening our pressure gradient Thursday into Friday. The 500mb jetstream is expected to drop further south with this trough to give us upper level support for enhanced surface winds. The surface winds are expected to be rather gusty as the 700mb jets ramps up between 70 to 80kts early Friday morning. The LREF paints a swath of 30 to 40 percent probability to exceed 75kts at the 700mb level across the Panhandle. When computing the probs for exceeding 80kts that swath drops down to 10 to 20 percent. Looking at the global models omega fields, there is some moderate to strong subsidence covering the majority of the area east of I-25 in Southeast Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle. Given the level of certainty in high winds. The winds were increased with a blend of NBM90 and GFS20. This should more accurate capture the areas of potential high wind. Friday morning looks to be the timing of the strongest winds with gusts reaching up to 65 to 75 mph in the Panhandle depending on the where the 80kt jetstreak sets up. NAEFS also continues to show PWAT values in the 10th Climatological percentile across the far eastern edge of Southeast Wyoming and most of the Nebraska Panhandle indicating a very dry airmass. RH values look to drop into the teens by Friday afternoon with dewpoints in the negatives. Given the low RH and the potential for borderline Hurricane force winds, elevated fire weather to red flag conditions may be present Friday afternoon. However, behind the faster winds lies an arctic airmass that drops 700mb temperatures from 4C to -4C Friday. This drop in 700mb temperatures will be responsible for dropping the high temperatures into the 30's on Friday. 700mb temperatures do gradually warm back up into the 3 to 4C range Sunday into Monday as the ridge axis wobbles back eastward. However, the region will be lacking any significant moisture through the long term. Long range ensembles show dry conditions lasting potentially until the 21st of January.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1000 PM MST Wed Jan 14 2026

VFR conditions continue through much of the TAF period, with lower ceilings moving into the region very late in the period, after about 21 to 00Z. Gusty winds return for the afternoon and evening, with gusts between 30 and 40kts likely. Winds are expected to increase further after about 06Z Friday.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for WYZ101-102. High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for WYZ107-108-118-119. High Wind Watch from late Thursday night through Friday afternoon for WYZ110. High Wind Watch from late Thursday night through Friday evening for WYZ116-117. NE...High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for NEZ002-095. High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for NEZ003-019>021-054-055-096.