textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry conditions and above average temperatures are expected to continue for much of the week ahead.

- The next chance for precipitation and temperatures closer to seasonal averages will be Friday into next weekend.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 205 AM MDT Sun Oct 18 2026

While last winter may have shown you to never really put away the shorts, today and tomorrow you might want to wear pants. 700mb temperatures are going to drop from around 12C to 6C today and Monday. A cold front is expected to drop by around the afternoon to bring a cool fall sensation over the region. Daily high temperatures are expected to be in the 60's with a couple locations in the Nebraska Panhandle to potentially hit 70. Winds are also expected to become breezy around 20 to 30 mph before dieing down in the evening. The overnight temperatures are expected to be in the 30's to maybe low 40's across the area. This cold front is expected to stall somewhere in Northern Colorado (let's say Ft. Collins or Loveland), this means we can expect the same cool temperatures as today to also occur on Monday. There are some high based clouds that will move in most likely dropping the temperatures a degree or two colder than currently forecasted for areas west of I-25. If this occurs and upsets you, then you can blame Utah for having a shortwave that gives them weather but sends excess clouds over to us. However, looking at the most recent sky fields in our models these clouds may be gone by Monday afternoon and then you will see the sun again. Monday night will be a tad warmer with overnight temperatures in the 40's with light winds.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Issued at 258 PM MDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Warm and dry weather is expected to continue through most of next week, though a transition to a more active pattern is possible by the end of the week into next weekend. The synoptic weather pattern for the weak ahead will features a broad ridge over the central US, with another slow moving closed low meandering into the western part of the country. Southwest flow aloft will prevail through most of the week. Temperatures will be well above seasonal averages with 700- mb temperatures around +5 to +8C for much of the week. Look for highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s across the area, which will be about 10-15F above normal. The flow direction will continue to improve mid to upper level moisture through the week. By Thursday afternoon, NAEFS mean precipitable water is actually quite close to climatological maximums. Despite the high moisture content, we don't have much lift to actually translate this into precipitation. Weak heating this late in the season will keep convective instability to a minimum, and synoptic forcing appears unimpressive at this time. Still, we may see some widely scattered high-based showers each afternoon and early evening through the week ahead. Forcing may be strong enough by Thursday to pick up coverage a little as the upper level low to our west inches closer. Fortunately, the moisture advection will mix into the boundary layer periodically, which should keep fire weather concerns down.

The upper level low will make its exit to the east sometime in the Friday through Sunday period. This will present the next chance for notable precipitation, while also dropping temperatures closer to seasonal normals. Most likely, Friday will be another warm day but with increasing chances for rainfall later in the day, with the cool- down waiting until Saturday. Since we are still 6 to 7 days out, precipitation is highly uncertain at this time. NBM PoPs are generally in the 30 to 50% range which seems appropriate at this lead time. While a sizable minority of ensemble members have healthy precipitation totals (0.5" or more), this system appears fairly disorganized so there is also a possibility (30% or so) that it delivers minimal rainfall to our area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 525 AM MDT Sun Oct 18 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. A cold front will be passing through and the winds will become gusty and colder behind it. Some high based clouds will be passing through tomorrow evening between 12,000ft and 20,000ft so no impacts to general aviation are expected. Around 00z winds will start to turn more eastward but winds will be about 10kts during that time.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...None. NE...None.