textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread strong to locally damaging winds will continue through the day today.

- High winds may continue through Sunday in the wind prone areas.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected Friday and Saturday due to gusty winds, low humidity, and dry fuels.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 345 AM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

GOES water vapor imagery shows a narrow stream of upper level moisture over the area getting slowly pushed southward as arctic air moves down from the north. We have been in a lull of the strong winds for the last several hours, likely due to some modest ascending motion moving through the area behind the initial frontal passage. Radar continues to show snow showers moving across portions of southeast Wyoming, but coverage is beginning to decrease as forcing for ascent weakens. Descent should take over shortly, which will end both the snow shower potential and the lull in the strong winds. Northeast Wyoming and western South Dakota have been seeing consistent 60+ mph gusts over the last few hours, and this should expand into our area as descending motion works its way southward. The strongest winds will be over the area generally between about 7AM and 3PM. Expect widespread gusts of 60 to 75 mph, with a few isolated higher gusts possible. The most likely areas for these stronger gusts remain the wind prone areas along I-80 (Laramie to Elk Mountain and Cheyenne to Vedauwoo), and the US-20 corridor. Temperatures will be quite cold today, in the 20s to low 30s for most. Morning wind chills will be around 0F, and will only recover to the lower teens at best during the afternoon. Despite the cold temperatures, a very dry airmass moving in overhead will put fairly low RH in place today. Grassland fire danger will be elevated once again. However, RH should remain above thresholds for a Red Flag Warning, but due to the extreme wind speeds, there could still be control issues for new grassland wildfires today in areas that did not receive enough snow to cover the grass last evening. It is difficult to assess where snow was able to reach the ground via webcams, but will re-evaluate once reports start coming in later this morning.

After sunset today, expect strong winds to decouple from the surface, but the flow aloft will remain strong all through the night. Still, we should see gusts come down to a more reasonable 40 to 55 mph. Most high wind warnings expire at 5PM, but the I-80 wind prone areas will continue into Saturday morning when the 700-mb flow finally comes down. We may need to watch for a few isolated gusts to 60 mph overnight, but this will be much more limited than during the day on Friday. Recent model guidance has begun to pick up on a narrow filament of increased moisture moving into the area this evening, but are rather inconsistent on the placement of this feature and the amount it may increase dewpoints. Still, following this trend, hi-res models have begun to show some light snow developing this evening, mainly in the higher terrain where orographic lift will be enough to extract a few snowflakes. We could see another dusting to an inch or so in the higher terrain, with perhaps 1-3" above 10 kft.

Saturday will be another dry and windy day across the area, but wind speeds will be lower than Friday. Look for gusts of 40 to 55 mph in the morning, gradually decreasing through the afternoon. Temperatures will still be cold, but a remarkably dry airmass will move in overhead. Precipitable water values over the Nebraska panhandle on Saturday will be less than 0.10, and possibly as low as 0.05. These are largely below the lowest percentile of climatology. Surface dewpoints could be as low as -10 to -20F which will push RH near or below 15%. Fire weather headlines will likely be needed, but decided to wait for the next shift to get a better idea of where snow fell last night. By Saturday evening, the ridge aloft will begin to push westward, helping to spread improved moisture eastward with the miler air. This brief amplification of the ridge will occur ahead of another shortwave diving down from the north. A surface low will accompany this feature, and expect to see surface pressure falling over the High Plains Saturday evening. The cross-barrier pressure gradient will begin to climb as a result, possibly bringing another window for High Winds Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. However, this will be a more traditional event, likely confined to the typical wind prone areas. Current probabilities are around 50% for the wind prone areas.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 345 AM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

Model guidance continues to trend faster with Sunday's cold frontal passage. Now, it looks more like a morning cold front, which will likely prevent Sunday's highs from warming much above seasonal averages. In addition to the cold front, this feature will be trailed by another potent 700-mb jet similar to today's event, but placed a bit further north and east. LREF mean 700-mb winds during the day on Sunday are above 50 knots northeast of a roughly Lusk to Sidney line. While most of the area will see gusty northwest winds once again, we may need to watch for another round of 60+ mph gusts in the northern Nebraska panhandle and Niobrara county. Breezy conditions may last into Monday with temperatures remaining near or slightly below average for this time of year. Warm air advection should boost temperatures back above seasonal averages on Tuesday, but of course, this will come with another chance for strong winds in the wind prone areas of southeast Wyoming.

The latter half of next week is a bit more interesting, with ensembles diverging wildly. Most members agree that the extremely persistent ridge over the western CONUS will at least begin to weaken. However, there is disagreement on whether it will breakdown fully and transition to a more zonal flow pattern over the CONUS, or just weaken slightly. Regardless, an arctic surface high pressure appears likely to be positioned over the Canadian Prairie by midweek. The main questions for our area are then 1) if this arctic high will push south into our area and then 2) if so, when will that occur. Currently, about 20% of ensemble members bring this front south on Wednesday into Thursday, giving a shot for light snow and colder temperatures. Most other members still bring a cool down, but hold it off until the weekend. Amongst those, there is discrepancy regarding how far south the cold air will push. Some bring this well to the south, opening the door to Pacific moisture and widespread snowfall, while other stall the cold front on our doorstep, likely giving us cold air but not much snow. The main takeaway is that the forecast for the latter part of next week still has quite a bit of uncertainty, but there is a chance for something other than wind (although of course, that will be there too) to sneak into our area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1050 AM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

Mostly VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. The exceptions will include KLAR, where some overnight show showers could impact the site and bring lowered VIS/CIG, alongside portions of the panhandle where blowing dust is impacting the area, primarily KBFF. Otherwise looking at winds the primary hazard, with gusts upwards of 50-60 knots through this evening, with speeds lessening into the evening and overnight but widespread gusts of 40 knots still possible.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ101-102- 106>108-118-119. High Wind Warning until noon MST Saturday for WYZ110-116-117. High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Saturday for WYZ115. NE...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NEZ002-003- 019>021-054-055-095-096.