textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer and drier weather will continue through Sunday, leading to elevated fire weather conditions.

- Cool and unsettled weather will prevail for Monday through Tuesday, with drier and warmer weather for Wednesday through Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 120 PM MDT Fri May 1 2026

Short term forecast remains largely benign as ridging over the region holds control of our forecast area through the majority of the weekend, with Sunday becoming slightly more active. For the rest of today and Saturday - expect mostly clear skies with some scattered high level clouds but otherwise seasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions, with highs on Saturday around 10 degrees above normal. Morning lows still be quite cool thanks to the clear skies, with minimums around or just above freezing, so don't start planting quite yet! The dry conditions will continue to fuel elevated fire weather concerns on Saturday as well, but latest high resolution model guidance isn't encouraging enough to warrant upgrading to critical conditions. While winds today have been breezy and supportive, RH values are mostly in the 20's to upper teens, just outside of critical for Red Flag Warnings. And on Saturday, while we will be the driest day of the period with RH values into the low teens and near single digits, guidance isn't supporting stronger winds with weak pressure gradients across the area for the day, supported by ensembles and high resolution models. If a shortwave is able to track just a bit more southwestward we could see those winds increase enough, so it's still something to keep an eye on.

Sunday is at least slightly more active as the ridge starts to flatten as it becomes sandwiched between a West Coast low and multiple stronger shortwaves descending from the north. While moisture will begin to return and should start to stave off stronger to near critical fire weather conditions (elevated once again along the Colorado border), the most notable increase in moisture will be aloft, promoting an increase in clouds and our specialty - virga and gusty outflow winds. Otherwise temperatures should largely mirror those on Saturday, with another warm day in store for the area.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Issued at 120 PM MDT Fri May 1 2026

Monday...Another shortwave trough aloft moves nearby, and with adequate low and mid level moisture, we anticipate scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms mainly south of a Douglas to Alliance line. Temperatures slightly cooler with more cloud cover and precipitation coverage.

Tuesday...Moist northwest flow aloft will help produce another round of scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. With 700 mb temperatures only near -6 Celsius, maximum temperatures will rise only into the 40s to lower 50s.

Wednesday...Although the flow aloft remains north northwest, 500 mb heights rise from 5580 meters to 5620 meters as the ridge over the Pacific Northwest begins to bulge across the northern Rockies. This will effectively decrease the areal coverage of late day showers and thunderstorms to a more isolated to widely scattered variety east of a Rawlins to Lusk line.

Thursday...Brisk northwest flow aloft and decent low and mid level gradients will help produce breezy to windy conditions. With limited low and mid level moisture, limited lifting mechanisms and downslope flow, drier conditions on tap. Will see a decent warming trend as 700 mb temperatures rise to near 6 Celsius.

Friday...The warming and drying trend continues as the flow aloft backs to west northwest and the atmospheric moisture decreases. 700 mb temperatures near 9 Celsius will yield maximum temperatures in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1123 AM MDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period at all terminals. Currently winds are gusting to 20-25 knots, sustained around 15 from the NW. An area of cumulus clouds are developing around 7.5 kft that are expected to become more numerous across the Nebraska Panhandle terminals through the afternoon and dissipate with the lost of daytime heating. Winds become variable and light overnight at all terminals with clear skies. Very low chances of radiation fog tomorrow morning given the expected lower humidity values compared to this morning, however, patchy fog may try to develop around daybreak in the valley areas of the Nebraska Panhandle. Probs are too low to introduce in the 18Z TAFS.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...None. NE...None.