textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Winds will increase tonight into Monday morning in the wind prone areas, with a few gusts to around 60 mph expected.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are expected on Monday over the High Plains.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 315 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026

February has started off with a beautiful day across the area. Temperatures are well into the 50s for most of the area, even around Laramie and Rawlins, with mostly sunny skies prevailing. A few high clouds are drifting in over the area this afternoon, mainly towards our northern zones. Winds are even fairly modest today outside of some gusts to 40 to 55 mph in the wind prone areas. A weak shortwave trough is traversing over the top of the very stubborn western CONUS ridge today, which is helping to produce the increasing cloud cover this afternoon and evening. Overnight, lee troughing ahead of the approaching shortwave will help boost the cross-barrier MSLP gradient, thus nudging winds up again for our typical wind prone areas. 700-mb winds and height gradients will also come up a bit as the shortwave compresses the ridge somewhat. Overall, this remains a fairly marginal, low confidence wind event for the wind prone areas, which several parameters very close to typical thresholds needed to produce high winds. 700-mb winds are around 45 to 50 knots, with MSLP gradients across the Laramie range around 3-5mb. 700-mb height gradients from Craig to Casper are only around 40 to 45m, which is quite a bit lower than ideal for a wind event. In-house guidance is mixed, with probabilities around 50% for the central/southern Laramie range, but only around 20% for the Arlington/Elk Mountain area. Therefore, decided to upgrade the existing watches to warnings, but noting that this event will be marginal, and may only be a few gusts up to around 60 mph or so Monday morning. Wind gusts around 40 to 50 mph will be much more consistent through this period. Winds should remain confined to the wind prone areas, with most models showing ascending motion over most of the High Plains.

The shortwave aloft will break over the top of the ridge Monday morning, pulling a surface cold front through the area around daybreak. Gusty winds will spread over much of the High Plains behind the front, but this will mostly be 30 to 40 mph with high winds not expected. Temperatures will be about 5-10F cooler than today behind the front, but still quite a bit above average for this time of year. Morning cloud cover will gradually clear out as the day progresses. Clouds will begin to increase again late Monday night ahead of the next shortwave trough diving down from the north. This one may increase winds again, but the best subsidence looks confined to our south. High wind probabilities Tuesday morning are only around 10% or less.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 315 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026

Long term remains quiet overall as high pressure brings above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions. Tuesday is the busiest day of the long term, with a shortwave and front bringing cooler conditions and a quick glancing shot of precipitation for the CWA. For temperatures - while cooler compared to the weekend, highs remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal both on Tuesday and into Wednesday, and will be in no way cold for this time of year. Meanwhile precipitation chances will be very limited as weak forcing alongside pitiful PWAT values will struggle to produce much more than a super quick and light hit of rain or snow across much of the central and eastern portions of the forecast area. Winds could also be breezy, but pressure gradients are meager and upper level winds paltry, with in house guidance producing a 25% probability for High Wind Warnings for Arlington at best. And then beyond Tuesday and Wednesday, the ridge over the Western US strengthens, bringing us back up to notably warmer than average temperatures. With such consistency and how models have struggled with warmer airmasses in the region, did a slight increase on highs for Thursday, with locations such as Cheyenne now knocking on the door for a daily record with temperatures in the low to mid 60's, putting us 20+ degrees above normal. After Thursday, the high elongates allowing us to "cool" down a few degrees, but we'll still remain 15 to 20 degrees above normal in the 50's to 60's with conditions remaining dry. Winter remains nowhere to be seen as our weather pattern feels more like spring than winter.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1028 PM MST Sun Feb 1 2026

Widespread VFR conditions are expected through the period as upper level high pressure builds over the area. Winds will generally weak overnight before increasing once again Monday afternoon for all terminals, though the higher winds will be mainly over SE WY. Only high level moisture is expected.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...High Wind Warning until 8 AM MST Monday for WYZ106-116-117. NE...None.