textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread strong to locally damaging winds will continue through early Friday evening.

- Wind chills below zero expected Friday night into Saturday morning. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for the Northern Nebraska panhandle for wind chills as cold as -30F.

- Near critical fire weather conditions are expected Saturday due to gusty winds, low humidity, and dry fuels. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the Nebraska panhandle.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Issued at 330 PM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

So far the widespread high wind event remains on track with all zones in High Wind Warnings verifying. Impressive wind gusts have been seen throughout the day, with frequent 80+ MPH gusts in the South Laramie Range and foothills and 70+ MPH gusts virtually everywhere else east of the Laramie Range. Numerous reports of tree and structural damage from the strong winds have also been reported. Widespread observations of strong wind gusts continue this afternoon, with a gradual easing of wind gusts expected this evening. High Wind Warnings east of the Laramie Range will expire at 5 PM, however, a brief extension may be needed if strong winds decouple from the surface later than expected. Strong winds will continue aloft overnight, so blustery conditions are still expected tonight. Occasional wind gusts to 60 MPH in these locations will likely be inevitable overnight as decent subsidence will still exist, however 45 to 55 MPH will generally be the norm. With the arctic airmass still in place overnight, low temperatures will drop into the single digits and teens. A few more rural locations could fall below zero. Given the continued strong winds, wind chills overnight will be sub-zero. Besides wind and cold, a little nose of energy will stick off the main trough over the Great Lakes. This vorticity max will provide a bit of lift needed to produce a few light snow showers overnight. Areas with the best chance of seeing snow showers will be the northern Nebraska panhandle, the Laramie Valley and the Snowy Range. Moisture with an airmass this cold will be minimal, so little to no accumulation is expected.

Wind chills Saturday morning, especially in the northern Nebraska panhandle, will be quite cold. The cold temperatures combined with strong winds will lead to wind chills below -25F in these areas. As a result, went ahead and issued a Cold Weather Advisory through 10 AM Saturday. Strong winds will continue through much of the day Saturday as MSLP gradients remain fairly steep and the 250 mb jet traverses the CWA. High Wind Warnings for the wind prone areas of Arlington and the South Laramie Range and foothills continue through noon Saturday as strong subsidence helps bring the winds aloft down to the surface. Areas outside of the wind prones can still expect a windy day with frequent gusts over 45+ MPH. The strongest winds will be in the morning, with winds gradually weakening through the afternoon. The strong winds will also lead to fire weather concerns, specifically in the Nebraska panhandle. An anomalously dry airmass will swing into the panhandle on Saturday as the upper-level trough moves eastward. Relative humidity will fall below 15 percent for much of the panhandle leading to critical fire weather concern when coupled with the winds. Despite fire weather concerns, temperatures across the forecast area will remain below average with 700 mb temperatures in the 10th percentile according to NAEFS climatology. High temperatures across the area will be in the 20s and 30s.

Heading into Sunday, high temperatures will return to near-average for most of the CWA. As the arctic trough pushes further east, seasonal air aloft will move in. Expect continued windy conditions on Sunday as the 250 mb jet sits over the eastern half of the CWA. Wind gusts over 45 MPH are likely in the aforementioned areas. Minimal precipitation chances are expected with partly to mostly sunny skies.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Issued at 422 PM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

In the long term, the region will see a quick moving shot of cold air to start the period before we then mostly sit between major features with the primary influence coming from ridging re-establishing itself across the western US, but by the end of the forecast period a breakdown of this pattern will leave ensembles in disagreement on how to handle the forecast. Sunday into Monday a low pressure system moving across the Great Lakes will drop a cold front across the region, bringing a surge of cooler air alongside a shot of light precipitation. Most likely time for precipitation will be on Sunday, but only a quick chance of some localized snow near the high terrain is expected before then departing with accumulations minimal at this time. Meanwhile this cold air should cause our temperatures to drop from near normal to just a few degrees below normal on Monday. This cold air will be short lived though, and by Tuesday warm air advection will bring us back to around 10-15 degrees above normal. Meanwhile, a quick jet over the region on Tuesday should produce another round of strong winds, albeit it mostly relegated to the wind prone locations, with in house guidance promoting a 60-70% probability of high winds for Arlington and Bordeaux. Moving into Wednesday & Thursday, the ridge should start breaking down, but ensembles begin to diverge on how much this high will erode, with around 60% of members expecting this high to weaken but still be able to lightly hold the region, while the remaining 40% expect this feature to fall apart thanks to low pressure to deep low pressure to the north and a weak low offshore from California. Either way, this should help to tune down temperatures and bring us back to closer to near normal. This could also allow for some weak embedded systems to skim across the CWA and bring another chance of precipitation or gusty winds, but as of this writing no features are noted that look potent enough to cause anything more than a quick glancing pass at the CWA.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 434 PM MST Fri Jan 16 2026

The biggest threat to aviation operations in this TAF period will be the continuation of powerful winds, expect gusts upwards of 45-60 knots over the next several hours, diminishing after 03Z. The reprieve from winds, unfortunately, will not occur until the tail end of the TAF period when winds decrease to less than 20 knots across all terminals. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of this TAF period, except for KLAR, KBFF, and KAIA. Where snow showers may impact KLAR and BLDU at KAIA and KBFF, reducing CIGs and VIS.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for WYZ101-102- 106>108-118-119. High Wind Warning until noon MST Saturday for WYZ110-116-117. High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Saturday for WYZ115. NE...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NEZ002-003- 019>021-054-055-095-096. Cold Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM MST Saturday for NEZ002-003-095-096. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 5 PM MST Saturday for NEZ434>437.