textproduct: Cheyenne

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds will continue in the wind prone areas across southeast Wyoming this afternoon with a few gusts to around 60 mph expected.

- A weak cold front will pass through this evening, bringing scattered rain and snow showers into early Wednesday morning.

- Elevated fire weather concerns are possible several days this week, including the weekend, due to windy conditions, mild temperatures, and low humidity.

- Widespread strong winds are possible across the region Thursday through Saturday, with the best chance on Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Issued at 123 PM MST Tue Jan 13 2026

Some of the things we are monitoring for the remainder of today, elevated fire weather concerns across far southeastern Wyoming and southern portions of the Nebraska Panhandle along with increasing precipitation chances. A stout upper level trough will dive south out of Canada into the the Great Lakes region while a potent shortwave rides along the western flank south into the High Plains. To the west, ridging holds firm across the West Coast and our CWA is sandwiched between the two aforementioned features. As a result, dry north-northwesterly flow aloft will filter into the region. This flow coupled with a surface cold front will promote breezy conditions, generally northwest winds 15-35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph, locally higher. These winds along with min RH values dropping to near 20%, fuels across the region are abnormally dry and abundant, are the the perfect ingredients for elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon. You may be wondering where is the greatest threat, well, an area confined by our CWA from Cheyenne east and Scottsbluff south. The window of opportunity is closing fast though, so expect fire weather conditions over the next few hours before enough moisture filters in and RH values bump up to above 40%.

Lets shift our focus to this afternoon/evening, with the aforementioned shortwave being the upper level support and a cold front at the surface, precipitation chances will increase through the afternoon hours. Spreading across the CWA from the northeast to the southwest. Expect snow at higher elevations across the Laramie and Snowy Ranges, around 5/6K feet and above, with very modest amounts in the 1 to 2 inch range. Elsewhere, primarily rain and possibly mixing with snow as we head into the nighttime hours, little to no accumulations expected. This is all quick hitting, because by Wednesday, dryer air returns.

After the gusty winds that have been plaguing are wind prones since the morning hours end this evening, minimal chances for additional strong winds on Wednesday. This is due to weak forcing aloft and at the surface that will not support another strong or high wind event. Now lets take a look at temperatures, with 700mb temperatures near +2C, surface temperatures will soar above average as highs today top out in the 40s west of I-25 and mid 50s to low 60s east of the corridor, warmest across the Nebraska Panhandle. More of the same for highs on Wednesday, albeit slightly cooler. Lows, not all that low or cold for this time of year, will dip into the 20s to low 30s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Issued at 123 PM MST Tue Jan 13 2026

Over the long term forecast the ridge axis wobbles further west as a upper level low drops into the eastern Northern Plains/ Western Great lakes area. THis will send a trough to pass through Nebraska tightening our pressure gradient Thursday into Friday. The 500mb jetstream is expected to drop further south with this trough to give us upper level support for enhanced surface winds. The surface winds are expected to be rather gusty as the 700mb jets ramps up between 70 to 80kts Thursday night into Friday morning. The LREF paints a swath of 30 to 40 percent probability to exceed 75kts at the 700mb level across the Panhandle. When computing the probs for exceeding 80kts that swath drops down to 10 to 20 percent. Looking at the global models omega fields, there is some moderate to strong subsidence covering the majority of the area east of I-25 in Southeast Wyoming into the Nebraska Panhandle. Given the level of certainty in high winds. The winds were increased with a blend of NBM90 and GFS20. This should more accurate capture the areas of potential high wind. Friday morning looks to be the timing of the strongest winds with gusts reaching up to 65 to 75 mph in the Panhandle depending on the where the 80kt jetstreak sets up. NAEFS also continues to show PWAT values in the 10th Climatological percentile across the far eastern edge of Southeast Wyoming and most of the Nebraska Panhandle indicating a very dry airmass. RH values look to drop into the teens by Friday afternoon with dewpoints in the negatives. Given the low RH and the potential for borderline Hurricane force winds, elevated fire weather to red flag conditions may be present Friday afternoon. However, behind the faster winds lies an arctic airmass that drops 700mb temperatures from 4C to -4C Thursday night into Friday. This drop in 700mb temperatures will be responsible for dropping the high temperatures into the 30's on Friday. 700mb temperatures do gradually warm back up into the 3 to 4C range Sunday into Monday as the ridge axis wobbles back eastward. However, the region will be lacking any significant moisture through the long term. Long range ensembles show dry conditions lasting potentially until the 21st of January.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 455 PM MST Tue Jan 13 2026

Shallow surface cold front is forecast to move south and west into Colorado and central Wyoming by late this evening. Some bands of rain and snow will impact mainly the southeast Wyoming terminals, with light sprinkles or light rain for the western Nebraska terminals. Conditions will improve after 12z early Wednesday.

HAZARDS/WEATHER TRENDS: Tricky Aviation forecast due to low confidence but potentially impactful weather, mainly for KLAR and KCYS. Band of light rain currently moving through KBFF and KAIA at this time with high end MVFR CIGS and/or VIS expected through 03z. These conditions are also possible over KSNY and KCDR, but just not as confident. Further west, will need to keep an eye on KLAR and KCYS as the front is expected to stall near this generally area. A more prolonged low-end MVFR or IFR event is possible between 06z to 14z Wednesday due to snow or snow/rain mix. Did not go quite this aggressive in the 00z TAFs, but started adding IFR conditions to each terminals.

CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

WY...None. NE...None.