textproduct: State College

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SYNOPSIS

An upper level ridge will build along the East Coast through Tuesday. A weak cold front will push through Pennsylvania Wednesday, then high pressure will likely settle south into the region late next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/

Ridging at the surface and aloft will ensure fair weather across Central PA overnight. Upstream satellite imagery supports mainly clear skies with nothing more than some thin cirrus. The weakest pressure gradient and lightest winds will be across the eastern half of the state, where conditions are favorable for radiational cooling and min temps a bit below NBM guidance. Expect readings at dawn to be mainly in the 30s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Upper ridging along the East Coast will result in fair and warm weather across Central PA Monday and Tuesday. A weak shortwave is progged to lift across the Eastern Grt Lks Monday, accompanied by some increase in mid and high level cloudiness. An isolated shower can't completely be ruled out over the NW Mtns Monday afternoon, but low levels look too dry to support POPs >15 pct at this point.

Surface high pressure positioned east of New England and the resulting southeast flow off of the Atlantic should keep temps in check Monday, despite rising heights aloft. GEFS 2m temp anomalies are several degrees above climo Monday, translating to highs in the mid 50s to low 60s.

A general decrease in cloudiness is expected behind the exiting shortwave Monday night and Tuesday. However, a moistening southerly flow, combined with orographic forcing, could result in patchy low clouds and perhaps even some ridgetop fog across the higher terrain of Eastern PA late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

The surface high is progged to shift southward down the East Coast by Tuesday, shifting the low level flow from southeast to south and cutting off the cooler maritime influence. Increasing low level moisture should result in scattered diurnal cumulus Tuesday and ensemble 2m temp anomalies surge to 10-20 degrees above climo, translating to highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

An approaching cold front is likely to spread showers into the northwest part of the forecast area late Tuesday night. An active southwest breeze ahead of the front should hold temps up Tuesday night, with lows only in the 50s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Low pressure from the Great Plains will track northeast into Quebec on Wed. A cold front will move southward across the Keystone state, bringing some showers to the region, before high pressure builds into the area for late week. The main chance for showers will be on Wed. The main change to the fcst package was to lower POPS some after Wednesday, in line with the newer guidance and other offices.

The airmass behind the cold front is not all that cold for early November. Overall the large scale pattern remains the same into at least next weekend. Will have to watch the tropics, but the upper level ridge off the southeast coast is so strong, that weather systems will trend to track well to the west of our area.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

High pressure settling offshore will lead to a good srly flow for the next few days. VFR is expected through at least Mon evening when some increase in moisture is progged to occur in the eastern and central terminals. At that point, MVFR cigs become possible. The southerly flow will bump dewpoints to 45-50F in the east (IPT, MDT, LNS) by the end of Mon night. AOO and UNV may also see MVFR clouds develop by Tues AM. But, it is the ern terminals that have the higher likelihood (70pct). No precip is expected thru Wed, though. Fog also should not occur at any of the terminals tonight with RH maxing out in the 70-75pct range. The wind does increase aloft and at the sfc over BFD and JST overnight tonight. Gusts may touch 20KT on Mon there. A general/widespread increase in wind speed/gusts is anticipated elsewhere on Tues. The MVFR cigs should improve to VFR, both lifting and scattering Tues aftn.

Outlook...

Tues PM...Wed...Restrictions possible with scattered -SHRA moving in from the NW. CFROPA Wed. Precip may not get SE of UNV-IPT.

Wed night-Thu...A few lingering -SHRA possible south.

Fri...Mainly VFR.

FIRE WEATHER

Srly flow on the backside of a departing high pressure area will result in rising dewpoints/RH starting Mon. The increase in moisture should keep Red Flag worries low for the work week despite slightly stronger, gustier wind developing. That said, the dry fuels and wind could meet two of the three red flag criteria.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.


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