textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Thunderstorms still moving through the final 3 counties of the CWA.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Line of storms with cold front exiting the area. Unseasonably cool Thursday. Thunderstorms may contain gusty winds and small hail.

2) Significant summerlike warmup ramps into early next week with the highest temperatures of the year so far.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Line of storms with cold front exiting the area. Unseasonably cool Thursday. Thunderstorms may contain gusty winds and small hail.

Very scattered severe reports from this evening's storms. The last of the storms are exiting the area headed toward Philly. Most notable among the reports were a 44KT gust at MUI, a 46KT gust at CXY (sub-severe gusts), numerous trees down in/near Harrisburg, and a steeple off a church in New Bloomfield. See LSRs for some details. Despite the expectation of the CIN ruining the storm environment in the Lower Susq, the front gave enough lift to overcome that limitation. A couple of showers will linger over the far SE until midnight as we just got our last shower of the night here in Happy Valley.

The rest of the night will hold just isold --SHRA in the upslope areas of the western hills under the base of the upper trough. 8H temps dip just below 0C late in the morning, but air temps should remain in the m-u30s at their coldest. So, if there is a flake mixed in with the rain showers, it may not even make it to the ground.

Previous... Scattered showers linger into Thursday beneath the upper low. Thursday will be the coldest day of the week. Max temps will be unseasonably cool and quite chilly for mid May with highs in the 45-60F range or 10 to 20 degrees below the historical average (frequent 20-25 mph wind gusts will only add to the chill).

Conditions will dry out on Friday with daytime highs rebounding +10-20 degrees vs. Thursday.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Significant summerlike warmup ramps into early next week with the highest temperatures of the year so far.

After a cool start to May, guidance continues to signal a significant warmup on the horizon for this weekend into early next week. This large scale pattern shift should deliver a rather sudden warm surge with max temps projected to reach well into the 80s and even lower 90s. Daily record highs may be challenged based on the current fcst Monday and Tuesday.

There may be some potential Heatrisk considerations looming for early next week. This stems not only with the forecast high temperatures, but also from an acclimation perspective especially after a rather cool stretch of weather during the first half of May. Probabilistic Heatrisk shows >50% odds for moderate or higher levels across south central PA with fcst heat index values starting to exceed 95F Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Not much on radar in our area as of Midnight, but strong cooling aloft will result in the upper level low cutting off over our area toward sunrise.

This will result in CU development with showers shortly after the sun is up, along with lower CIGS today. The wrap around moisture around the upper level low will likely linger into early Friday morning, perhaps later into the day on Friday.

Conditions will improve by Saturday, as the low moves away from the area and high pressure builds into the area.

Outlook...

Fri...VFR likely.

Sat-Mon...VFR is likely much of the time, although brief restrictions are possible with isolated afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.

CLIMATE

Record low temperature of 25 degrees was tied (1963) at Bradford yesterday.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.