textproduct: State College

SYNOPSIS

* Fair and tranquil tonight-Monday * Trending milder with periods of rain Tuesday and Wednesday * Windy and much colder with lake effect snow Thanksgiving Day through Black Friday

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/

Northern tier showers earlier this evening have since dissipated. Winds at the sfc continue to relax into tonight. Skies are clear across much of the area, but stratocu should persist across the northeast zones on the backside of departing upper trough under 850mb cold pool. There is some potential for late night radiational fog along the western Alleghenies beneath 1025mb high pressure center reaching southwest PA by 12Z Monday.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Good travel conditions are expected to start Thanksgiving week with fair and tranquil weather on Monday. High and mid level clouds will increase through Monday night as a milder warm advection pattern quickly shifts downstream from Ohio Valley. Light mixed precip could reach the southwest mtns as early as 12Z Tuesday, although the probability is low at this time.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Mild trend continues through midweek with max temps peaking on Wednesday in the 50-60F range or +10-15 degrees above the historical average for late November. Periods of rain are expected to move over the area Tuesday and Wednesday which could slow holiday travel. Overall NBM has 0.25-0.50 inch of rain in the Tue-Wed period, but it is worth noting that the NBM 75th pctl has as much as 0.50 inch of rain falling in just a 6 hour period from 1-7 PM Tuesday across potions of south central PA. Rain on Wednesday will likely be less widespread and more confined to the cold FROPA.

Conditions turn breezy by Wednesday afternoon ahead of a well- defined cold front poised to plow through PA Wednesday night. Blustery post-frontal flow with gusts 30-40 mph Thursday and Friday is expected to deliver much colder temperatures for Thanksgiving Day. This pattern shift to cold/blustery WSW to WNW flow will trigger lake effect snow - initially targeting the LE shoreline into SW NY early Thursday before before pivoting into the NW PA snowbelts Thursday night into Friday. Several inches of snow accumulation and significant travel disruptions are possible Thu-Sat across the NW mtns. We added the potential wind and lake effect snow hazards to the HWO which will likely become key messages heading into peak Thanksgiving holiday travel and Black Friday. Some heavier snow showers are possible all the way down to Interstate 80 on Friday.

Models diverge over the weekend but general idea is a break in the lake effect snow Saturday, followed by warm advection into Sunday/Monday with potential for a deep, slow moving storm system.

AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Mainly clear skies are present across all of central Pennsylvania this evening. Winds have begun to tapper off at the surface, however some winds aloft remain gusty and will be cause for some LLWS concerns for the overnight period. After 06Z winds should calm and any LLWS concerns will diminish.

VFR conditions will prevail areawide through the TAF period as high pressure builds in. There could be some fog in northwest PA overnight, perhaps forming close to KBFD, but restrictions appear unlikely at this time.

Outlook...

Mon...VFR.

Tue...Breezy with periods of rain.

Wed...Breezy with rain showers, mixing with and changing to snow after sunset.

Thu-Fri...Breezy with SHSN for northwest PA.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.