textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No significant changes

KEY MESSAGES

1) Nor'easter moves away this afternoon, south of and parallel to the Southern New England Coast, leading to a dry and warmer than normal stretch of weather through Thursday.

2) Cold front moves in late in the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Nor'easter moves away this afternoon, south of and parallel to the Southern New England Coast, leading to a dry and warmer than normal stretch of weather through Thursday.

The center of the Nor'easter was located about 100 NM S of the eastern tip of Long Island (KMTP) moving gradually ENE.

The low is also slowly filling, leading to much lighter northwesterly breeze across Central PA and the Susq Valley with some minor gusts into the low- mid teens.

Widespread, thick stratocu will continue to blanket the CWA today with some late afternoon breaks possible in downslope areas across the Lower Susq and adjacent SE PA. Near 100 pct sky cover will persist through at least early tonight across much of the remainder of the forecast area.

The cloud cover will break slowly overnight, but more so on Tuesday as a large sfc high builds NE from the Lower Ohio Valley.

Temps will max out in the 60s throughout the valleys today, though the Laurel Highlands and highest terrain across northern PA will struggle to reach the upper 50s.

Clouds hanging around for much of the area tonight won't allow temps to fall by more than 10-12F thru the night.

Tuesday's maxes will be 5-6F warmer than today and readings for Wed and Thursday will be another few deg F higher. Surface dewpoints inch up each day, too, and will be 55-65F on Thurs as maxes get to 75-85F. Pretty summer-like.

Valley fog will form late tonight/early Tuesday AM, but should be limited to patchy/areas throughout the valleys of Central and Northern PA. Similar to slightly greater areal coverage of Valley Fog is expected late Tuesday night/early Wednesday as sky cover improves to 50-60 percent.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Cold front moves in late in the week.

A cold front will approach from the Upper Great Lakes, slowing a bit as it moves through the region. Moisture will be pretty limited as it moves through the CWA Thurs PM and Fri. NBM PoPs (60s NW, 30s SE) may actually be a little high. But, at this range, it's probably not worth trying to tweak them. It looks like the front will then get hung up and stretch west to east over VA. At that point, a surge of moisture associated with the remnants of Polo will move through the OH and TN Valleys. The moisture will overrun the old front and likely bring rain and cooler temps for the weekend.

AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Still feeling the effects of the retreating Nor'easter with light northwest winds and a sprawling cloud deck across the region. Low clouds and fog will be common tonight everywhere except KMDT and KLNS as inversion heights drop and scattered breaks in the clouds lead to some patchy fog formation.

Expect a 1 category drop across the board tonight with IFR at BFD and JST dropping to LIFR, AOO, UNV, and IPT dropping from MVFR to IFR, and LNS and MDT dropping from VFR to MVFR. The lowest ceilings/visibility will generally be between 06 and 13Z with improvement areawide thereafter. VFR should prevail most places by mid afternoon, but MVFR may linger at BFD and JST.

Outlook...

Wed...Morning fog; then sunshine returns with mostly VFR conditions.

Thu...Chance of showers late PM, some restrictions possible.

Fri...Cold FROPA with showers along the front.

Sat...Uncertainty abounds, rain/lower cigs possible south, brighter/less restrictions north.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.