textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lower chance of strong storms overnight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Risk of isolated strong storms on the decrease overnight.

2) Brief break from the episodic precip pattern and high humidity into the weekend before thunderstorm chances return Sunday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Risk of isolated strong storms on the decrease overnight.

Late evening update. Updated the HWO, chance of any strong storms about over with.

More information below.

Mid evening update.

SPC did cut back on the oulk. As was the case around 5 PM yesterday and today, strong to severe storms formed just to our north and east, near the front.

Still a few strong storms just to our north, but expect this activity to remain mainly outside our area. Temperatures across the north not all that warm now.

Further to the southeast, just to the northeast of MDT, a few cells formed in the warmer and more humid airmass, but the highest dewpoints mainly near the river, and given trends and time of day, hard to see much going on with these cells.

Activity to the northwest has been weakening.

Temperatures on track for the overnight period.

More information below.

Meso models continue to display a fairly wide spread on the convective evolution through tonight. In general, we're favoring in increase in precip potential from NNW to SSE (downstream of Lake Erie and ongoing tstm activity in southern Ontario/western NY) from later this afternoon into the early overnight hours.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Brief break from the episodic precip pattern and high humidity into the weekend before thunderstorm chances return Sunday.

Looks like the more active day may be Sunday vs. Monday, but could see the activity linger into Monday. Like recent events, warm advection and directional shear support storm formation, as the warm air moves back into the area on Sunday.

More information below.

Latest trends suggest the front will have a harder time pushing south of the MD line into the weekend. We still expect a brief break in the episodic tstm precip pattern and very muggy conditions Friday night into Saturday, but the chance of rain will linger over portions of the southern tier of CPA. Ensemble data shows a ramp in precip odds for Sunday into Sunday night in advance of a frontal system pushing eastward from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

SCT-BKN high MVFR to low VFR clouds/ceilings will prevail into tonight. Low confidence with precip timing and coverage as model data generally indicate an increase from around Lake Erie and western NY southeastward through central PA airspace into the overnight hours. We continued to account for potential restrictions via MVFR PROB30s, however a locally heavy tstm downpour could drop visibility to IFR. Highest confidence in IFR is from late tonight through early Thursday morning over the western TAF sites where residual low level moisture and weak upslope favors IFR/LIFR cloud cigs at KBFD/KJST after 06Z. Flight cats will improve from MVFR to VFR through late morning with widespread VFR probable by 18Z Thu.

Outlook...

Thu...Scattered showers/storms mainly across the southern Tier of PA through Thursday night.

Fri...Mainly VFR. A few showers or storms possible over southwestern PA.

Sat...AM fog possible, then mainly VFR.

Sun-Mon...Restrictions possible in showers/thunderstorms.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.