textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Tweaked near term grids, but no major changes. * Considering dropping FFA for the northern couple counties.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Numerous showers with some embedded thunder are moving thru the area and may bring locally over 2 inches of rain and some areas of flash flooding into early Sunday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Numerous showers and some embedded thunder are moving thru the area and may bring locally over 2 inches of rain and some areas of flash flooding into early Sunday.

Radar playing out the forecast very nicely. Much of the heavy rain has confined itself to PBZ's area, as expected. Have not seen any 1"+ amounts on any buckets across our CWA, and FFG is higher than that. It is good that we have the flood watch out, but we may be able to start trimming it off as this push of rain goes past. HRRR and RAP had been different on the timing of rain exit from the watch area, but are now both languishing rain over the CWA much of the night - just light rain, though. Thus far, we have had no hydro issues, and the threat seems to be coming to a close. But some training of 0.5-0.75" rainfall is seen over the NW at this time. That will add onto the 0.25-0.5" we had at first late this aftn. But, it still looks fairly tame or even of no consequence. Will allow the watch to continue as is for the time being. But, we may be able to drop it earlier than 08Z (curr exp time).

AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Peak instability (late this afternoon) with MU CAPE values between 1000-1500 J/KG just to the West of KJST and KDUJ terminals help to fire off numerous discrete/low-topped TSRA and small line segments that trained northeast and expanded into the current large area of light to moderate rain with embedded TSRA and areas of heavy rain.

The western airfields will have IFR to low-end MVFR and slowly deteriorating conditions overnight to min values between 07Z-11Z Sunday. LIFR to IFR conditions are expected at most, if not all, airfields in the 04Z-11Z Sunday period, followed by a bump up to MVFR (or MVFR/VFR - at the Central and Eastern PA TAF locations).

The best overlap of instability and high PWATs for the overnight hours will be at JST and AOO. This is where the strongest storms with the heaviest rainfall, gusty winds, and visibility impacts are most likely.

Given the cloudier conditions that occurred further east during the daylight hours this Saturday (limiting instability growth), showers and thunderstorms are expected to be weaker. Some heavy downpours remain possible for the first half of tonight though given the high PWATs, so included visibility restrictions in Tempo or PROB30 groups elsewhere too.

Some clearing around sunrise at BFD, JST, and AOO may lead to some fog development early tomorrow morning.

Outlook...

Sun...Early MVFR/IFR and moderate rainshowers across the state. Additional SHRA/TSRA in the afternoon.

Mon...Primarily VFR conditions, with some potential for afternoon SHRA/TSRA.

Tue-Thur...Mainly VFR with a showers possible over NW PA.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ004-005-010-011-017- 024-033.