textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Frost/Freeze late tonight into early Sunday morning

2) Extended stretch of dry weather next week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Frost/Freeze late tonight into early Sunday morning

Bands of north-south oriented clouds off of the Great Lakes continue to decrease in coverage this afternoon as high pressure builds into the region from the west. This high will set up favorable conditions for a widespread frost/freeze tonight into early Sunday morning. Low temperatures will be in the 25-30 degree range for much of the region tonight and a Freeze Warning remains in effect for all zones except for McKean County where the growing season has already ended. The overnight frost/freeze risk will continue for portions of CPA into next week, but additional headline issuances will depend on where the growing season remains active after tonight's freeze.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Extended stretch of dry weather next week

High pressure anchored on the northwest side of a Nor'easter developing along a stalled front off of the NC coast will provide another extended stretch of dry weather in CPA Sunday through next week. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding how close the Nor'easter tracks to the coast, but the vast majority of model solutions keep and precip associated with the storm off to our east. This pattern will feature seasonably warm days, chilly nights, and low humidity.

AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions outside of BFD where showers in the vicinity of the airfield have brought ceilings back towards MVFR thresholds as of 10Z. Showers at BFD appear to be the main concern in the near-term; however, showers appear to be mainly just west and east of the airfield based on recent radar trends so have just outlined a couple of hours of VCSH given low certainty on rainfall at the airfield. There will be some low-end chances for JST/AOO to briefly go towards MVFR thresholds given low-level moisture and cloud decks hovering around MVFR thresholds, but general thought is they will lift towards VFR after 12Z Saturday. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are virtually certain throughout the 12Z TAF period based on consensus of all model guidance. HREF does outline some potential for valley fog near BFD in the 09Z-12Z timeframe Sunday; however, given the dry air in place post-cold frontal passage, not entirely sold on fog reaching into the airfield at this time. That being said, have outlined VCFG for the fog potential in the valleys surrounding the airfield with lower confidence in visibility/ceiling restrictions at the airfield.

Outlook...

Sun-Wed...AM fog possible; otherwise, VFR conditions prevail.

CLIMATE

Daily record max temperature of 83 degrees set at Altoona yesterday 10/16. The previous record was 81 set in 1962.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ004-006- 010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066.