textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Little in the way of notable changes to the previous forecast for this weekend as a large area of high pressure drifts over the Commonwealth tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Much below normal high temperatures today followed by a gradual warmup beginning Sunday and peaking on Tuesday.

2) Plenty of clouds with periods of showers Monday through Tuesday night

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Considerable cool down into the last weekend of March followed by resurgence of Spring warmth to kick off April

A sprawling area of surface high pressure (1040 MB) over the midwestern states early today will drift east and reach the Eastern Seaboard by daybreak Sunday.

Northwest flow at the surface and aloft will combine with a subtle mid-upper level trough to bring some areas of bkn strato cu through early this afternoon, especially across the northern and western mtns where a few flurries are possible as the shallow clouds will be nestled within the favorable thermal ribbon for dendritic growth.

A benign weather pattern is expected for much of the weekend thanks to seasonably strong sfc high pressure migrating eastward from the Midwest. The passage of an upper level trough late tonight into early Saturday could trigger some lake enhanced showers over the northern tier, but the sensible weather on the whole will be chilly and uneventful to start the last weekend of March.

Moderately gusty northwest wind (low to mid 20s KTS) will occur through today as the well mixed layer grows to around 6 kft agl and taps some relatively stronger wind within the upper half of this layer.

Based on the recent widespread rainfall and discussion with the PA BOF personnel, fire weather concerns are quite limited.

That being said, low RH values below 30 percent this afternoon and the gusty NW wind could support a few wildfires, especially across our eastern zones, as finer fuel moisture will be the lowest where the least amount of rain (AOB 0.50 inch) occurred Thursday/Thursday night.

The Bureau of Forestry indicates that fuels (leaves/grasses/etc.) are moist enough to prevent significant fire weather concerns, but please use caution if planning to burn any debris this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Plenty of clouds with periods of showers Monday through Tuesday night

As we head into the upcoming week, all model signals point to a resurgence of Spring warmth to close out the month and kick off April. An anomalous ridge of high pressure will shift from the western US to the east coast and bring a prolonged stretch of southwesterly flow. This will support temperatures in the 60s and 70s for the middle of next week. As the western US ridge is replaced by a deep trough, a resurgence of deep layer moisture from the Gulf region will bring a fairly active/rainy/stormy pattern in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic through Easter weekend. Warm & wet looks like the theme for Central PA for the first couple weeks of April. Spring growth should commence with haste over the next few weeks.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A weak trough of low pressure at the surface and aloft will drift SE across the region this morning. This weather feature will accompanied and followed by variable amounts of strato cu clouds (possibly dipping into upper end MVFR range at KBFD and KJST with a few flurries).

Elsewhere, widespread VFR conditions will prevail through this current 12Z TAF period.

Northwesterly winds in the wake of the aforementioned trough will increase to 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts. Breezy conditions will last much of today.

Skies trend toward SKC by 21z Sat with wind decreasing tonight as the center of high pressure drifts over the state. Outlook...

Sun...VFR. Winds shift to S-SW as an area of high pressure moves east and off the Mid Atlantic Coast.

Mon...SCT -SHRA with restrictions poss, mainly W.

Tue...Chance -SHRA, slight chc TSRA west.

Wed...NMRS SHRA with TSRA poss. Cold fropa.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.