textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* A Heat Advisory has been issued for the SE half of the CWA for Wed.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Heat Advisories are in effect for portions of the CWA Tues and Wed. Upgrade to Warnings possible on WED for the Lower Susq.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Heat Advisories are in effect for portions of the CWA Tues and Wed. Upgrade to Warnings possible on WED for the Lower Susq.

The only message today is the expansion and addition to the heat advisories for Tues and Wed. The area covered by Tues's advy increased by one county (Huntingdon). After collaboration with our neighboring offices, we decided to issue an advisory for the SE half of the area for Wed. So, some of the area active on Tues now doesn't get out of the advy until Wed evening. But, the heat index values do go down in the north on Wed, but up a little in the south. This was rather expected, but the confidence was not high enough until now to make that call. There is still a chance (I'd give it a 40% chc) that we may end up upgrading a small portion of the Wed advy to a warning (Lanc/Leb/York/Dauph are most-possible).

The arrival of slightly drier and cooler air and increased clouds on Wed and further advancement to the S on Thurs should help keep the heat index values down in the sub-advy range.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

For the 18Z TAF package, went with VFR conditions.

The airmass has had more time to dry out today, so fairly low chance of fog and low clouds late tonight.

Expect dry conditions on Tuesday as the new NAM model now dry for late Wed.

Outlook...

Wed-Thu...Mainly VFR, with areas of late night/AM fog.

Fri-Sun...Chance of showers and t-storms.

CLIMATE

Daily record high max temperatures July 14-16 _____________________________________________ SITE|7/14|7/15|7/16| --------------------------------------------- MDT | 101/1954| 99/2024 | 104/1988 | --------------------------------------------- IPT| 102/1936| 103/1995| 103/1988| --------------------------------------------- AOO| 95/1954| 98/1995| 100/1988| --------------------------------------------- BFD| 89/1979| 88/2013| 97/1988| --------------------------------------------- STCP1| 93/1988| 97/1887| 102/1988| ---------------------------------------------

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for PAZ004>006- 010>012-018-037-041-042. Heat Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ019-026>028-045-046-049>053-056>059. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ035-036- 063>066.