textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* A dry afternoon for a change.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry for tonight and Monday, but the potential for T-storms with heavy rain and damaging winds returns on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry for tonight and Monday, but the potential for T-storms with heavy rain and damaging winds returns on Tuesday.

SFC high pressure over Eastern Lower Michigan this evening will drift SE over PA tonight and Monday bringing generally clear skies, light wind, and comfortable temps and dewpoints.

Stratus/stratocu deck (and perhaps some showers) advects north across the eastern part of the CWA tomorrow night into Tuesday, while some increase in mid and high clouds occurs over the Western half of PA.

No real change to the day 3 outlook for Tuesday for storms. Made a storm total grid for rainfall for Tuesday, heaviest amts on average across the east, where dewpoints fcst to come up quickly into the 70s on Tuesday.

More information below.

Tuesday looks somewhat similar to what we had yesterday (Saturday) with high PW values, and strong dynamics, as an abnormally deep, sub-100mb low tracks just north of the Lower Great Lakes with a deepening upper level trough and left exit region/strong upper level diffluent flow moving over the CWA at peak heating into Tuesday evening.

We've already had 2 similarly deep systems this summer and this would be the third one. Main threat from this will likely be strong storms with the potential for damaging winds. Also heavy rain, but like Saturday, speed of storms would likely limit the risk of widespread hydro problems.

Main concern with hydro is having the activity in the same locations as where the rain was on Saturday. Some areas yesterday had 1 to 2 plus inches of rain, while some spots across the north and south had next to nothing. Some areas too wet so far this July, while others are still too dry from the lack of rain in June.

After mid week, temperatures will trend near to a bit below normal, as we head into the end of July.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Mostly clear skies and dry conditions means VFR is expected to prevail for the next 24 hours. Winds will remain light, and patchy fog development is possible over the region. Confidence is overall low on any impactful fog reaching the airfields outside of KBFD. The probability of visibility restrictions elsewhere remain less than 30%.

Smoke will once again flow into central PA from the north today and be present through this afternoon. Density of this smoke is expected to be much lighter based on output from the HRRR/RRFS models (which have the ability to model smoke), this smoke will linger through at least tomorrow while still being too light to bring visibility restrictions.

Outlook...

Tue-Wed...Brief restrictions possible in showers/t-storms with cold FROPA expected between Tuesday/Wednesday. T-storms more likely on Tuesday, with lingering showers possible Wednesday.

Thu-Fri...VFR Conditions.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ024-033.