textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* WPC MRGL excessive rainfall risk level 1 added for Wed (9/2).

KEY MESSAGES

1) Late summer heat+humidity to close August and open September 2) Bouts of heavy rain & severe storms possible Monday-Wednesday

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Late summer heat+humidity to close August and open September

The latest available model guidance has a fairly good handle on the overall large scale pattern through the middle of next week. The dominant synoptic feature will be a sprawling 500mb anticyclone gradually expanding to the east northeast from the central/southern Plains to the southern Mid Atlantic and Southeast. This will deliver a stretch of very warm and humid conditions with temperatures rising several degrees above the historical average from Sunday (last day of August) through Wednesday (first few days of September).

The heat will peak Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures ranging from the mid 80s to mid 90s. Heat index values could approach the century mark across the south central mountains each afternoon as well. Overnight lows in the 60s and 70s will provide little relief from daytime heat. This warm/humid air will also provide ample fuel for thunderstorms as the week wears on.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Bouts of heavy rain & severe storms possible Monday-Wednesday

A series of dynamic shortwaves and frontal systems tracking eastward along the northern periphery of the elongated upper ridge will interact with high humidity/very high PWs, strong mid level flow/favorable jet streaks, and instability to produce a few episodes of heavy rainfall and possible severe weather during the middle part of next week. There are typical timing and amplitude differences of the smaller scale disturbances that will need to be resolved, but the convective signal is supportively bullish for a couple rounds of strong to severe storms and at least localized areas of potentially excessive rainfall. WPC has continued to highlight portions of north central PA with a marginal risk for Monday & Tuesday followed by a new, broader coverage for Wed/D5. SPC has maintained the 15% or level 2/5 equivalent severe probs on Wednesday while acknowledging additional probs will likely be needed on either side of Day 5 based on medium range ML and AI generated guidance.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Widespread VFR conds were observed this evening, with some high cloudiness beginning to drift in from the northwest. Expect VFR conds to continue into the overnight hours, with winds diminishing.

Towards daybreak, low level southeasterly flow may lead to the development/NWD advection of a stratocu deck over the Lower Susq Valley, with cigs of 2500-4000 ft AGL. This could lead to a few hours of MVFR restrictions at LNS and MDT toward daybreak Sunday.

Sunday will see a light sfc W/SW wind of 5-10 kts develop across Central PA. Any MVFR cigs over the Lower Susq Valley should lift by midday. A few SHRA or TSRA could develop later in the day, esp across northern PA, but most of the day should be dry.

Outlook...

Mon-Thu...Scattered SHRA/TSRA with brief restrictions possible; morning fog possible.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.