textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* minor modification to afternoon high temps for Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cool and breezy (Windy Sat morning across the NE portion of the CWA with gusts of around 40 mph) into the last weekend of May

2) Pleasant, rain-free conditions to start June

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Cool and breezy (Windy Sat morning across the NE portion of the CWA with gusts of around 40 mph) into the last weekend of May

Several Deg C of warming from the west around the 850 mb level will help to minimize any flat cu development, in contrast to the several deg C of cooling at that same level and thick stratocu coverage we had during the morning and midday hours Thursday.

Today will be mostly sunny with low humidity and near-normal temperatures in the 70s. A westerly breeze will gust 20-30 mph at times during the afternoon.

A cold front drops southward from eastern Canada this evening and moves through the region tonight, delivering a shot of cooler air to start the last weekend of May.

Highs on Saturday will be -6 to -10F below climo in most places with highs in the 60s...to low 70s in some of the Scent Valleys. Wind gusts from the North-Northwest in the 30-40 mph range are fcst over the eastern portion of the area early Saturday in conjunction with deep sfc low along the New England coast.

Saturday night will feature decreasing clouds and wind which sets up a pretty chilly overnight period by end of May standards. We would not rule out some patchy frost in the northern tier with the usual cold spots likely printing lows in the upper 30s early Sunday morning.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Pleasant, rain-free conditions to start June

A steady dose of Canadian air intrusions will promote an extended stretch of rain-free (dry) weather over the next 7 days. WPC QPF is essentially 0.00" across all of CPA through 12Z Friday June 5th. The pleasant and refreshing weather next week is fcst to be replaced by warmer, more summerlike conditions by the first weekend of June.

AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR expected across all sites today. Skies generally SKC with isolated FEW or SCT high based cu/thin cirrus developing through this afternoon with winds averaging around 10-15kts, with gusts in the high teens/low twenties.

A secondary push of cooler air from the north approaches the region tonight. The frontal boundary associated with this cooler air has little to no meaningful moisture and no restriction to CIG or VSBY is expected. Overall, a nice stretch of good VFR conditions is expected through the weekend.

Winds will take on a more North to NNW component as the frontal boundary passes towards the end of the current TAF period with breezy conditions likely. Gustiest conditions will be present at the the eastern sites with gusts of >25kts possible. Signal is present for some LLWS in E PA after the cold frontal passage, but confidence isn't high enough in widespread development to mention it in this set of TAFs, will monitor for future TAF packages.

Outlook...

Sat-Mon...VFR with no significant weather expected.

Tue...Watching for isolated shower activity, restrictions possible

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.