textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Leaned a bit cooler on Monday with widespread clouds/rain

KEY MESSAGES

1) Brief thundershowers possible this afternoon and evening

2) Widespread rain on Monday

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Brief thundershowers possible this afternoon and evening

Arrival of low amplitude mid/upper trough combined with weak diurnal buoyancy should allow isolated to scattered low-topped convection to develop this afternoon and evening. CAMS show thundershowers developing over the Allegheny Plateau tracking to the east southeast through the evening. Modestly enhanced west-northwest flow and steep low level lapse rates could support a localized strong wind gust, but the overall magnitude of the threat appears too limited for damaging wind probs/level 1 SPC categorical (marginal) risk at this time.

For the majority of CPA it will be a partly to mostly sunny and pleasant start to the weekend with max temps (generally below historical averages) in the upper 60s NW to around 80F in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Breezy at times also today with wind gusts 20-30 mph from the west/northwest.

Winds will diminish tonight with partial clearing and patchy fog into early Sunday morning. Weather conditions for Father's Day look fantastic with astronomical Summer officially starting at 4:24AM Sunday.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Widespread rain on Monday

A wet start to the work week with widespread rain expected on Monday. The heaviest rainfall is most likely between 2AM and 8PM with totals in the 0.75-1.50" range. Current probs off the latest ensembles and National Blend indicate 50-80% probs for >1" across most of CPA. Flooding risk is marginal to low with greatest risk likely confined to urban areas where locally heavy or repeat downpours could cause some isolated runoff issues. Rain tapers off/ends Monday night with dry weather returning on Tuesday.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR prevails across all Central PA and Susquehanna Valley Airfields today with SCT-BKN fair weather cumulus, in the 3.5-6kft range expected in terms of cloud cover. Flat ridging at the surface and aloft this morning will quickly transition to a subtle mid and upper-level short wave trough sliding across the Commonwealth this afternoon.

Near term High Res Model guidance continues to highlight a chance for mid to late afternoon sctd-numerous rain showers and even an isolated low-topped TSRA. These convective elements will be moving Southeastward at 35-40KTs, which will make any impacts very brief and possibly MVFR at worst in the CIG and VSBY departments. Went with the mention of PROB30 -SHRA in the general 18-23Z Sat window.

Outlook...

Sun...Showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon/evening across the far west, and around or shortly after Midnight over the Central and Eastern portions of the state.

Mon...Restrictions possible with a few periods of rain/or showers and thunderstorms.

Tue...Lower chances of showers, mainly VFR.

Wed...Mainly VFR, watching for precipitation chances though in the evening/overnight

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.