textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Lowered dewpoints by a few Deg F below NBM with deep vertical mixing up to around 7 kft AGL and significant drying aloft this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures trend much warmer today and Tuesday, ahead of a system that will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Temperatures trend much warmer today and Tuesday, ahead of a system that will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday.

Sfc high pressure has drifted east of the Carolina Coast and the moderately tight pressure gradient across the Mid Atlantic Region and Lower Great Lakes will support a gusty southwesterly breeze. Even with the advection of slightly higher dewpoints into the Commonwealth the significant rise in temps will equate to similar or just slightly higher min RHs today relative to Sunday.

High temperatures jump into the 60s and 70s this afternoon with the crest of this current warmup occurring Tuesday as a moderately gusty southwesterly flow is sustained out ahead of the next, slow- moving cold front, and temps start out the day Tuesday some 10-15 deg F higher than this morning.

A few locations across south-central PA may even push the 80 degree mark Tuesday afternoon. Scattered-numerous showers will impact the region (mainly the NW 1/2 of PA) on Tuesday, especially across northwest PA. The higher chance for showers and thunderstorms looks to be on Wednesday and Thursday ahead of a slow-moving cold front.

Temperatures once again turn cooler behind this front for late in the upcoming week, with potential frost/freeze concerns developing. Medium range guidance indicates showers mixing with or falling as wet snow across the Northern Mountains and Laurel Highlands late Wed night through Friday.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

06z update... Confidence remains quite high (90+%) in VFR/unrestricted conditions through 00z Tuesday.

Transient low level wind shear possible in northern TAF sites as lower-level jet builds in. BFD may see brief intervals of 35kts LLWS in the 09Z-11Z timeframe, UNV and IPT may see 30kts. Confidence is not high enough to include in TAFs as magnitude is not expected to cross 35kts for significant periods of time.

Low-level winds emanate from the S and SW and become gusty (up to 20-25 kt) by midday Monday as high pressure moves offshore and convective mixing brings down stronger winds.

Outlook...

Tue...SHRA/TSRA becomes more widespread from NW to SE; restrictions possible.

Wed-Thu...SHRA/TSRA continue; restrictions likely.

Fri...Scattered SHRA remains possible, restrictions possible

CLIMATE

Multiple low temperature records were set or tied across central Pennsylvania for May 3rd:

Altoona observed a low temperature of 31 degrees, breaking the previous record of 32 degrees set in 1957.

Johnstown observed a low temperature of 29 degrees, which ties the previous record of 29 degrees set in 1941.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.