textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Lowered Max temps and raised Min temps this weekend * Increasing confidence in remarkably nice weather next week into the weekend before Thanksgiving

KEY MESSAGES

1) Breezy and colder weekend with rain and snow showers downwind of Lake Erie

2) Another extended stretch of dry and seasonal weather next week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Breezy and colder weekend with rain and snow showers downwind of Lake Erie

Another vorticity lobe currently over NW PA per satellite imagery will swing through the mean trough across CPA and drive a reinforcing shot of cold air advection (CAA) to the southeast or downwind of Lake Erie. The CAA along with a more favorable W/NW low level wind trajectory will promote lake effect precip this weekend across the Northwest Allegheny Plateau and Laurel Highlands. Snow accumulations will generally be less than an inch and limited to the higher terrain, though isolated amounts of up to 2 inches will be possible by Sunday morning in areas that see the most persistent snow bands (primarily in the Laurel Highlands). A favorable Huron connection could bring near- Advisory amounts to portions of Somerset County. Brisk winds also through the weekend will add a winter- like chill factor with max gusts in the 20-30 mph range in the Laurels. Wind chills may dip into the teens Saturday and Sunday morning there.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Another extended stretch of dry and seasonal weather next week

Lake effect rain and snow showers come to an end by Monday morning as an upper level ridge builds into the region. High pressure at the surface and aloft will provide dry conditions with mainly clear skies for next week along with moderating temperatures. Highs should reach the 55-65F range by the second half of next week or +10-15 degrees above the historical average for mid November. Light winds, low humidity, and abundant sunshine will be ideal for any outdoor activities. Whether raking leaves, putting out holiday decorations, or enjoying time outside, it will be an ideal stretch of weather.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Expect an increase in lake effect snow showers over northern and western PA through the morning as low-level winds gradually become more northwesterly. The best moisture, at least initially, appears to be directed at JST, so they will have the best chance of seeing restrictions in snow showers prior to 12Z. Snow showers will eventually develop at BFD as well, though they may hold off until around 15Z. Model RH profiles suggest that moisture will be shallow and any snow should be relatively light, but brief periods of IFR visibility will be possible at those two sites throughout the TAF period. Snow may mix with or change to rain during the afternoon, before changing back to all snow after sunset. A few showers could make it to AOO, UNV and IPT as well, but the chances are lower than at BFD and JST.

MVFR at ceilings at BFD and JST will persist through the TAF period with at least some chance of lowering further to IFR. REFS probs of this occurring are highest at JST, with this possibly occurring as early as 12-14Z. BFD likely won't see IFR ceilings until late afternoon/early evening. MVFR ceilings should expand to AOO, UNV, and possibly IPT through the rest of the night, though they likely become VFR again during the afternoon. Ceilings lower once again at those sites after sunset. Winds will be out of the northwest through the TAF period at 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots possible.

Outlook...

Sun...Low ceilings early, trending to VFR by the afternoon. Rain and snow showers linger through the morning.

Mon-Wed...VFR.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.