textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periods of rain and breezy conditions from Isaias arrive Saturday night and continue through Sunday

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Periods of rain and breezy conditions from Isaias arrive Saturday night and continue through Sunday

Departing high pressure will maintain dry weather tonight and Saturday with increasing mid and high clouds. While clouds could modulate min temps to some extent, expect another chilly night across the northern tier with patchy frost possible.

Rain associated with Isaias is projected to reach the Laurel Highlands after midnight early Sunday morning and gradually expand throughout central PA Sunday morning. Periods of rain continue Sunday afternoon into Sunday night before tapering off by early Monday. Total rainfall amounts are still forecast between 0.50 and 1.50 inches over a 24-36hr duration with a low risk of potential flooding impacts. As post-tropical/TD Isaias tracks from the TN Valley into WV, it's wind field will bring breezy conditions with max wind gusts 35-40 mph fcst over the ridgetops in the Laurel Highlands on Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Prevailing VFR remains likely through Saturday as a broad high pressure moves across the Northeastern US. Similar to last night, we may see some patchy valley fog form, but the very dry air mass and increasing cloud cover should limit the overall extent. HREF and REFS probabilities of visibility less than 6SM is less than 10 percent at all TAF sites. Mid and high clouds increase through the day on today ahead of what is currently Hurricane Isaias. Winds will be out of the southeast at 5 to 10 knots, though a few gusts to 20 knots will be possible at KJST during the afternoon. There is some guidance to suggest gust of 35+ knots could occur at KJST after 04Z on Sunday, but confidence is low those winds mixing down to the surface. Any rainfall associated with the remnants of Isaias will hold off until late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. The initial thought on timing would be after 02Z Sunday is when precipitation would begin over the southwest.

Outlook...

Sun-Mon...Restrictions likely in lower ceilings and rain.

Tue...VFR favored, though a FROPA may bring restrictions in -SHRA. AM fog possible.

Wed...AM ceiling restrictions possible from post-frontal stratocu, with VFR otherwise favored. Slight chance of -SHRA due to lingering moisture behind front.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.