textproduct: State College
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* Lowered dewpoints/RHs today and Monday.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Lengthy run of dry and mild weather continues into early November before coming to an end by late next week
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Lengthy run of dry and mild weather continues into early November before coming to an end by late next week
Another very pleasant and comfortable weekend to close out October (Halloween) and start November (ending daylight saving time).
Major message is that the high pressure overhead will not yield to anything for several more days. It deflects one system to our north early in the week before somethings stronger can gather in the MS Valley and slide slowly this way.
Minor messages include:
Morning fog and lower clouds should burn away after a couple of hours today with high clouds for the rest of the day. The temps will be down significantly (down 10-12F) from Fri in the SE, but the NW will benefit from warm advection and add 3-7F.
Dewpoints should get into the upper 20s to lower 30s today and drop RH into the 30s almost everywhere. There is a small concern for a dewpoint bomb occurring today with very dry air lurking just 2-4kft up. Drastically lower dewpoints would be more- likely over the central mountains and Allegheny Plateau than elsewhere today. However, thankfully, the wind speed is nowhere near a level where we would need to consider a Red Flag Warning for fire weather concerns. The wind yesterday caused more of a concern. With many days of dry weather (lack of moisture and no precip) in store, the fire weather threat will continue to be at the top of the list of weather concerns to evaluate.
Temps will be several degrees above normal during the daytimes with maxes 10-15F above normal for days 3-7 or longer. Morning lows will rise more-gradually, but still reach 15-20F above normal for Thurs-Fri. We could set a record maxi-min or two.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MVFR cigs in lingering stratocu near the NY border and valley fog formation could result in brief sub-VFR restrictions early this morning; otherwise VFR should prevail for the rest of today and through the balance of the weekend.
Outlook...
Sat-Tue...A.M. valley fog; otherwise VFR.
Wed-Fri...Periods of rain and sub-VFR becoming more likely.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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