textproduct: State College

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Increased wind gusts and POPs/QPF this weekend * Stratified wx to rain vs. rain showers * Lowered maxT Sunday

KEY MESSAGES

1) Nor'easter will bring gusty winds and periods of rain for the first weekend of Fall

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Nor'easter will bring gusty winds and periods of rain for the first weekend of Fall

Sensible weather conditions continue to trend incrementally bearish on the margin particularly later Saturday through Sunday as wind and rain impacts extend westward from powerful Nor'easter tracking toward the NJ/Long Island/southern New England coast. Latest model guidance favored a minor increase in wind gusts and westward expansion of higher POPs/QPF to the Allegheny Front. Locations throughout the Susquehanna Valley will see the most persistent rain and strongest wind gusts up to 40 mph. We lowered max temps a few degrees Sunday due to the combination of clouds, wind, and rain. We can't rule out some localized/minor impacts (sporadic power outages and tree damage) due to the wind gusts especially across the eastern portions of the CWA.

It's still hard to say how far west the precip will reach with the western Alleghenies most likely to continue an extended dry stretch through much of next week. As the nor'easter lifts to the northeast, conditions should steadily improve by the middle of next week with temperatures poised to rebound above the historical average for the end of September.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Prevailing VFR flight cats through tonight with increasing high to mid level clouds from southeast to northwest. Localized vis restrictions may occur in valley fog tonight and have kept mention of VCFG at western and central airfields. LLWS forecast throughout ZNY sector tonight as a 45-60 knot low level jet moves into the area on the west-side of powerful Nor'easter. Rain could reach KMDT/KLNS by Saturday afternoon/evening. Highest confidence in sub-VFR will be over the eastern half of the airspace through Sunday. Winds/gusts from 330-030 degrees will increase Saturday into Sunday maxing out around 30kts.

Outlook...

Mon-Wed...Improving conditions trending VFR by midweek.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

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