textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Minor adjustments in the form of increased wind and gusts Sunday and slightly lower Min RHs today and Sunday. Confidence continuing to increase in a significant warmup next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Fire weather concerns will still be at play to start the weekend (mainly across the Lower Susq Valley and Scent PA where very little to no rain fell late Friday/overnight with the passage of a weak cold front). Wind gusts will be much lighter today and from the northwest, but will turn to the south and increase into the 20s (MPH) on Sunday.

2) Much warmer temperatures expected next week, with the highest chance for hit and miss showers and thunderstorms over northern and western sections of the Commonwealth.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Fire weather concerns will still be at play to start the weekend (mainly across the Lower Susq Valley and Scent PA where very little to no rain fell late Friday/overnight with the passage of a weak cold front). Wind gusts will be much lighter today and from the northwest, but will turn to the south and increase into the 20s (MPH) on Sunday.

Weak to somewhat moderate llvl pressure gradient, ahead of SFC high pressure over Lower Michigan, will bring notably lighter wind speeds than Friday (which saw 30s and 40s (MPH) gusts across the Laurel Highlands and NW Mtns. Gusts will climb into the low to mid 20s across the Susq Valley and points east today, but will top out in the mid to upper teens elsewhere. A gradual decrease in wind is expected for the mid to later afternoon.

Near or sub-30% RH values are possible across the Central and South-Central Mtns today thanks to downslope flow off the Alleghenies and a weakening/lowering subsidence inversion with very dry air aloft (capable of being tapped by any vertical mixing AOA 3 KFT AGL).

On Sunday, isolated showers could impact the far northern tier, as some south/southwesterly moisture return develops in the emerging warm air advection pattern. Most areas, though, will see no rain drops at all.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Much warmer temperatures are on tap for the upcoming workweek, with the best chance for hit and miss showers and thunderstorms Monday with a warm front and specifically over northern and western sections of the Commonwealth.

On the large-scale, our ensemble prediction systems are in good agreement that a mean upper-level trough will set up shop across the western CONUS, with downstream upper ridging taking hold from the Gulf states up the eastern seaboard. This will likely set the stage for a notable warming trend, with daily highs ranging from the 70s-mid 80s across central PA from Tuesday onward.

Drought impacted sections of south- central and southeast PA are not likely to see much in the way of rainfall next week.

However, there is a lot of spread in model solutions as one gets further out in time, so more in the way of rainfall and a return to much colder weather could occur as one heads into late next weekend or early the week later. Also the early green up of fruit trees etc. if temperatures swing to far back the other way after a bit of summer heat, this could lead to damage. Been a Spring for frequent temperature swings.

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AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

MVFR/low-end VFR ceilings will continue to improve to VFR as skies clear out through the morning, giving way to mainly clear skies for the rest of the TAF period. North-northwest winds will be sustained around 10 knots with gusts of 15 to 20 knots possible. Gusts may approach 25 knots at MDT and LNS. Winds will become lighter during the evening, decreasing to less than 5 knots after sunset.

Outlook...

Sun...VFR anticipated.

Mon-Wed...VFR most of the time, but brief restrictions possible in hit and miss showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the north and west.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.