textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Kept nudging the temps down Sat and up a little Sat night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unseasonably mild through Friday with 2.5 weeks-long dry spell now over.

2) Trending cooler this weekend with lake enhanced rain showers beneath upper level low.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Unseasonably mild through Friday with 2.5 weeks- long dry spell now over.

Anomalous upper level ridging and south-southwest flow aloft will maintain unseasonably warm temperatures through late week. High temps this afternoon will make it into the mid 70s across much of central PA, still 15 to 20 degrees above average. Highs will be about 5 to 10 degrees cooler on Friday.

The cold front responsible for the rain this morning will slow down or stall near the I95 corridor tonight. A dry slot will keep most locations dry this afternoon into Friday, but a weak wave along the front may trigger another round of showers this evening in the Lower Susq Valley later this afternoon into the evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Trending cooler this weekend with lake enhanced rain showers beneath upper level low

Update... Newest guidance continues to show a cool and blustery day on Sat. We have been constantly been pulling NBM (mean) temp guidance down closer to MOS blend for Sat, and we've now done it more so with continued support from many sources. We have also pulled temps up a few degs for Sat night due to the same clouds and also wind which should keep us more-mixed.

Previous... Seasonably cooler/breezy pattern to start the first full weekend of November. The passage of closed H5 low followed by mean cyclonic flow favors persistent clouds and periods of lake enhanced rain over the western and central Alleghenies on Saturday. We were keen to manually adjust max temps a few degrees lower on 11/7 to account for the cooler pattern shift which looks to continue into early next week. If the current forecast holds, it will be the first below average daytime high in three weeks!

AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Not a lot of change. Mainly added fog at MDT and LNS.

Eastern PA still has a lot of clouds, but clearing skies and a moist airmass with light winds and long nights will aid in fog formation.

Central PA will have mainly clear skies but lower dewpoints.

Some SC will edge into western areas like BFD and JST later tonight, but should remain VFR until late Friday afternoon, when winds shift more to the west-northwest. Used VCSH for these sites as well.

More information below with earlier discussion.

Clouds will gradually build back in overnight, with a some signal for MVFR ceilings again over the western Allegheny sites. Additionally some low clouds could re- develop overnight across MDT and LNS for a few hours. A secondary front is expected to pass over the region overnight, but confidence in coverage and intensity of precipitation is low. While rain showers are possible on Friday, the highest confidence in precip will be for after the 00Z Saturday time frame.

Outlook...

Sat-Mon...Breezy with showers and sub-VFR ceilings possible over the NW 1/2 of the airspace. Max gusts 20-25kt.

Tue...Mainly VFR, clear skies, and gusty winds between 20-25kts.

CLIMATE

1. Today marked the end of the following Consecutive Days streaks without measurable rain:

10/17 through 11/4 (19 days): Harrisburg, Williamsport, Altoona, State College

10/18 through 11/4 (18 days): Johnstown

2. Daily record highs for 11/4 and 11/5:

Harrisburg 78/1994 | 79/1975 Williamsport 75/2003 | 77/1994 Altoona 77/2003 | 77/2015 Bradford *TIED = 74/2015 | 76/2024 State College 78/2003 | 75/2015

3. The sun will set at 5PM on Saturday 11/7 in State College. This will mark the beginning of a 2 month period during which sunsets will occur before 5PM surrounding the Winter Solstice.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.