textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No significant changes

KEY MESSAGES

1) Improving conditions today with noticeable warmup to end September and start October

2) Cooling trend this weekend into early next week with an increasing chance of rain Saturday and Sunday

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Improving conditions today with noticeable warmup to end September and start October

Dreary start today with widespread low clouds and patchy fog/drizzle. Expect gradual improvement today with more clouds than sun and max temps +5-10 degrees warmer vs. Monday in the 65-75F range.

More breaks in the clouds overnight will favor locally dense valley fog formation with very low visibility restrictions into early Wednesday morning.

Sizable warmup expected from mid to late week with fcst max temps in the 75-85F range or +10-15 degrees above the historical average for the end of September/beginning of October. For context, the average last date of max temp >=80F is 9/27 at State College, 9/29 at Altoona, 10/2 at Williamsport and 10/5 at Harrisburg.

No rainfall is forecast through Thursday with some showers possible on Friday-Friday night associated with cold front sinking southeastward from the eastern Great Lakes. --------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Cooling trend this weekend into early next week with an increasing chance of rain Saturday and Sunday

24hr maxT change on Saturday behind the cold front is fcst to be 10-15 degrees lower vs. Friday with highs in the low 60s/70s. Trailing frontal wave could bring more widespread soaking rain on Sunday based on WPC/NBM QPF - although EC/CMC and (to lesser extent) lean farther to the south/east with the frontal precip. Confidence is higher that temps continue to cool off and drop near or below the historical average into early next week. Frost potential is on the table for next Monday and Tuesday night.

AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

MVFR ceilings are being observed across most of Central PA this morning with the exception of JST, where they are still LIFR in fog. Ceilings will slowly rise through they day and VFR is expected to prevail most places by late afternoon. BFD and JST will likely be last to see VFR conditions develop. Breaks in the clouds should promote fog formation tonight and some guidance is beginning to show the potential for fairly widespread visibility restrictions into Wednesday morning.

Outlook...

Wed...Morning fog; then sunshine returns with mostly VFR conditions.

Thu...Chance of showers late PM, some restrictions possible.

Fri...Cold FROPA with showers along the front.

Sat...Uncertainty abounds, rain/lower cigs possible south, brighter/less restrictions north.

CLIMATE

Soggy September Soaker... September 2026 (MTD) precipitation rankings IPT: 11th wettest (6.84") MDT: 26th wettest (4.72") AOO: 9th wettest (5.58") BFD: 10th wettest (4.85") JST: 3rd wettest (7.31") *since 2000 STC: 6th wettest (7.90")

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.