textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Freeze Warning issued for Lancaster and Lebanon Counties. * Downward adjustments to dewpoints next three days.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry forecast holds for the next 5-6 days

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry forecast holds for next 5-6 days

Freeze seems likely enough to post yet another freeze warning for the two counties not yet out of the growing season. While the urban places may stay above freezing, the light wind and few clouds will help the rural areas to get down to 32F. Guidance does keep the values up more 32-34F for most places, but the wind should be gone, and they just need an hour to drop enough to warrant the freeze warning for >50% of each county.

The high pressure making the light/nil wind and mainly clear sky possible will silently hold onto the region for many more days. A front, starved of moisture, will approach from the Upper Great Lakes Mon night-Tues, but PoPs are hardly worth having as PWATs stay very low before the arrival of the baroclinic zone. A new airmass, just as dry as this one then moves in from the NW and continues the dry forecast. Per almost every model/member/wooly worm I could find, the next chance for rain comes on/near Halloween.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Looking at VFR conditions to prevail overnight and into the weekend, as high pressure remains over the region.

The airmass is very dry, thus less chance of low clouds and fog than last night.

Winds will be on the light side as well.

This weather pattern likely to last at least into mid week.

Sun-Wed...VFR prevailing conditions.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ059-066.