textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Pleasant, uneventful early Fall weather to persist into the first part of the weekend.

2) Rain chances increase Sunday into Monday, as the remnants of Isaias quickly move through the Commonwealth.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Pleasant, uneventful early Fall weather to persist into the first part of the weekend.

Today should be breezy and seasonably cool behind the cold front that moved through overnight. Wind gusts will reach in the 20 to 30 mph range, with the stronger gusts in the higher terrain. Highs should range from the lower-to-mid 60s in the higher terrain, to the low 70s elsewhere.

Friday and Saturday should remain dry, as a narrow ridge of surface high pressure translates across the Commonwealth. By Saturday, temperatures should begin to rebound, as low-level warm advection ensues. Highs Saturday afternoon should range from the upper 60s over the higher terrain, to the mid-upper 70s in the Susquehanna Valley.

------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain chances increase Sunday into Monday, as the remnants of Isaias quickly move through the Commonwealth.

Our ensemble prediction systems remain fairly consistent in showing a quick eastward movement of Isaias' remnants and associated moisture from the OH Valley across the Mid-Atlantic from later this weekend into early Monday. From this early vantage point, it looks like the most persistent/concentrated rainfall across Central PA will be centered on the Sunday afternoon to Sunday night period. Initial indications are that a combination of a short time window for heavier rainfall (most likely 12-18 hours, perhaps even less), plus a welcome recent stretch of drier conditions, should significantly mitigate the potential for sustained heavy rainfall/flooding. That being said, we'll continue to watch the progress of this system closely over the coming days.

Tuesday morning into Tuesday night, models show a stronger cold front moving across the state, bringing more widespread rain chances. Gusty winds and cooler temperatures will follow on Wednesday.

AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

06Z update... VFR/unrestricted conditions should persist through the next 3 days. Borderline, but low end VFR will occur at KBFD and KJST early today as a sfc cold front pushes ESE across the state and upslope-generated stratus/stratocu develops.

For later this morning and this afternoon, strong dry advection in the wake of the aforementioned cold front should lead to VFR conditions area-wide.

Todays main sensible weather impact will come in the form of gusty W-NW winds (generally gusts of 20-25 kt area-wide, with occasional gusts around 30 kt in the 16-22Z period).

Outlook...

Fri-Sat... VFR conditions expected.

Sun-Mon... Restrictions likely in lower ceilings and rain.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.