textproduct: State College
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* Trimmed dewpoints this afternoon and again Sunday.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Dry and seasonably mild early Autumn weather continue through this weekend and into the last week of October.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry and seasonably mild early Autumn weather continue through this weekend and into the last week of October.
Persistent, incredibly low precipitable water values (under 0.4 of an inch) will continue to reside over all of Central PA today and tonight under a ridge of high pressure.
A band of slightly higher PWAT (0.5-0.7 of an inch) and some sct-bkn, shallow stratocu (mainly across the Northern Mtns) will advect south through the CWA in the wake of a weak/dry cold front later Thursday morning and Thu afternoon as some limited moisture is picked up off the Lower Glakes.
The stretch of sensational weather continues into the last week of October. This rain-free pattern (Zero POPs areawide through Monday) is highlighted by generally sunny and warm afternoons with low humidity followed by clear and chilly moonlit nights with areas of frost and river valley fog.
High temps will average anywhere from normal (Susq Valley and Southern PA Valleys to 7 or 8 deg F above normal (Central and NW Mtns) today and Thursday before taking a brief dip to near or slightly below normal in most places on friday. A gradual rebound in temps will occur for Sat through Monday, with Monday's maxes averaging 8-11 deg f above normal (which equates to low-mid 60s across the Northern and Western Mtns and near 70 in the Southern Valleys).
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions are virtually certain (> 90% probabilities) through 12Z Thursday under the influence of high pressure. Low pressure off the Atlantic will supply some high-level clouds mainly to MDT/LNS this afternoon and throughout the rest of the TAF package, but no large-scale aviation concerns at this time with respect to that. Valley fog will be possible across NW PA in the 06Z-12Z Thursday timeframe; however, based on the previous two nights, restrictions at BFD appear unlikely (less than 20% chance) so have left all mentions out of the 12Z TAFs.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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