textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Adjusted sky cover this morning based on visible satellite trends over NJ into southeast PA

KEY MESSAGES

1) Increasing heat risk through late week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Increasing heat risk through late week

Seasonably warm and dry conditions today will be replaced by building heat and humidity through late week along with an increasing threat for localized heavy downpours/thunderstorms.

Thursday is projected to be the hottest day of the week with fcst max heat index values most likely reaching advisory criteria thresholds east of the Allegheny Mtns. Max temps are fcst to approach daily records in a few locations Thu/Fri. The early season/mid-June sweltering heat should slowly ease by early next week.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Two areas of lower ceilings associated with a backdoor cold front are likely to bring low-end VFR ceilings to BFD/MDT/LNS through ~14Z Monday, with very high (> 90%) confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through 12Z Tuesday. Recent HREF guidance does indicate a slow progression of a high-level cloud deck after ~06Z Tuesday and have timed out these mentions in the most recent TAFs with no restrictions and this deck will likely aid in preventing fog development Monday night into Tuesday. Light winds are forecast throughout the entire TAF package with high (~80-90%) confidence under the influence of high pressure at the surface.

Outlook...

Tue...VFR favored outside of isolated morning fog. Restrictions possible in -SHRA/-TSRA late.

Wed-Fri...Restrictions possible in -SHRA/-TSRA.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.