textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Watching the radar returns disappear. Threat for any severe wx is over.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Storms have weakened almost completely. Expect the trend to continue before it totally dissipates shortly.

2) A taste of fall to start the workweek will be followed by increasing humidity and chances for rain for the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Storms have weakened almost completely. Expect the trend to continue before it totally dissipates shortly.

As expected, the line of storms (which were more tame than expected) has just about disappeared into the ether. Another gust to 25 is possible at JST in the next few minutes, but that will be it. No more instability to the SE of the line.

The cold front and much drier air are not quite into PA at 815 PM, but BUF and DKK (Dunkirk, NY) have dewpoints in the 50s, now. Expect that to continue sliding this way. By morning, the northern mtns may have dewpoints in the upper 40s, and even the far srn tier will have 55-60F Tds. Little fog is expected as the dry airmass moves in, but some of the northern valleys will probably have a little fog as the get colder than the river/creek water temps.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: A taste of fall to start the workweek will be followed by increasing humidity and chances for rain for the second half of the week.

Dewpoints will fall rapidly behind the cold front, from near 70 this afternoon to the 40s and 50s by early Monday. The northern tier will see some low stratus downwind of the Great Lakes on Monday in NW flow. Otherwise, expect clear skies and a pleasant September afternoon across much of central PA on Monday. With high pressure building overhead, radiational cooling will be effective Monday night bringing temperatures down into the 40s for much of central PA with patchy river valley fog possible. Valley fog will be possible again Tuesday night.

Return flow on the back side of the high pressure system moving offshore will bring increasing humidity for the middle and latter part of the week. A slight chance for precip returns to the forecast by mid week, with increasing chances for rain by early in the following week as the upper level pattern becomes more amplified.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Thunderstorms will continue to weaken as they move southeast, with only spotty light showers expected as the front passes over KMDT/KLNS overnight. Flow will shift from westerly to northwesterly behind the front, with post- frontal winds of around 5-10 kts helping to mitigate fog development, though stratocumulus may bring intermittent MVFR to perhaps IFR ceilings (primarily for upslope terminals, KBFD/KJST).

Outlook... Mon...Primarily VFR conditions, except for some cig restrictions in northern tier stratocu

Tue-Wed...AM fog possible, otherwise mainly VFR.

Thu-Fri...Increasing SHRA/TSRA chances, mainly NW.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.