textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

*No significant changes to the previous forecast

KEY MESSAGES

1) Anomalously warm temperatures ahead for much of this week and as we head into April with passing showers and periods of rain leading up to Easter Sunday

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Anomalously warm temperatures ahead for much of this week and as we head into April with passing showers and periods of rain leading up to Easter Sunday

Evolving WAA pattern will bring much above normal temperatures along with a gradual uptick in the chance of rain early this week. Max/min departures will peak Tuesday/Tuesday night at around +20 deg F and +30 deg F respectively just ahead of a southward moving cold front.

A weak mid/upper level trough drifting east from the Ohio Valley will generate plenty of layered clouds and some passing light rain showers today. However, rainfall duration and amounts will be minimal with a few hundredths of an inch or less.

The better rain/QPF signal develops Tuesday/Tuesday night and will be focused over the northern tier on Tuesday, in closest proximity to a slowly southward drifting cold front.

This frontal boundary will likely support the greatest chc for rain this week, esp over northern PA Tuesday afternoon and evening, within the southern portion of SPC's D2 MRGL risk area.

The fairly zonal flow across the Northern Tier of the U.S., Glakes and Northern New England won't allow for much southward push of this airmass boundary and the cold front becomes quasi- stationary and pivots over CPA on Wed as the pattern aloft amplifies upstream.

This will lead to CAD signature for Thursday as a strong, 1040+ mb sfc high slides over SE Quebec/Maine.

Another sfc low tracking through the Lower Great Lakes will push its swd trailing cfront toward the Commonwealth late in the week. But this boundary will also waver over the region and link up with a 3rd Upper Midwest sfc low to maintain the chance for rain in the forecast for Easter weekend.

Overall, the pattern to close out March and begin April 2026 looks be well on the mild side of climo with periods of rain. Max rainfall/QPF footprint extends from the mid MS Valley through the eastern Great Lakes with northwest PA most likely to pick up >1" over the next 7 days.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions with varying amounts of layered mid and high cloud cover will continue across most or all of the Central PA airfields into early this afternoon.

The main impact to departure and FAP through 13-14Z today will be widespread LLWS with peak speeds within the layer from the WSW (~240 deg) at 30-40 kts.

This moderately strong low level jet will bring in moisture for the lowest 6kft of the atmos. The moisture will pile up against the Laurels and Alleghenies (JST/BFD). IFR cigs are poss (40%) at BFD during the late afternoon/night tonight.

Elsewhere to the SE of the Alleghenies (across the Central Ridge and Valley region and Susq Valley) conditions should only dip to low VFR or possibly into the upper end of MVFR.

A few isolated patches of light rain are possible out of the thicker clouds/lower bases today - mainly across the Western Mtns and perhaps at MDT/LNS, too.

LLWS returns this evening (and continues through the night at all airfields) after boundary layer vertical mixing subsides and another southwesterly LLJ moves in from the Ohio Valley.

Outlook...

Tue...Chance -SHRA, slight chc (20%) -TSRA, mainly west.

Wed...NMRS SHRA with TSRA poss (40%). CFROPA late day or early night.

Thu-Fri...Sct to numerous SHRA. MVFR likely (70%).

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.