textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Freeze Warning issued for a portion of the NW Alleghenies

KEY MESSAGES

1) Frost/freeze conditions expected late tonight and early Tuesday morning over portions of the western and central Alleghenies

2) Extended stretch of dry and seasonal Fall weather this week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Frost/freeze conditions expected late tonight and early Tuesday morning over portions of the western and central Alleghenies

Upgraded freeze watch to warning for McKean, Potter, Elk, and Cameron counties.

Secondary cold front crossing the I-80 corridor at midday with line of stratocu on the leading edge/colder air aloft. Expect cu to gradually fade this evening into tonight with the loss of daytime heating. A gusty northwest wind 20-25kt aided by deeper BL mixing will also subside into tonight as high pressure slides southeastward from MI into western PA. Placement of sfc high becomes somewhat less favorable for frost/freeze Tuesday night as it migrates eastward to the Mid Atlantic coast by 12Z Wed.

------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Extended stretch of dry and seasonable Fall weather this week

High confidence in a prolonged stretch of dry and seasonable Fall wx this week with cool nights and refreshing afternoons with low humidity. The next chance of rain is on Sunday.

AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR prevails throughout the week with some local valley fog impacts possible late at night and early in the morning. A few periods of breezy conditions are expected with peak wind gusts during the afternoon 20-25kt.

Outlook...VFR.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ004-012- 017>019-024-033-037-041-042-045. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ005-006- 010-011.