textproduct: State College

SYNOPSIS

* Dry and trending warmer with somewhat hazy conditions from Canadian wildfires smoke drifting southeast across the region. * A cloudy and much more humid period resumes for the late Friday through Sunday period with rounds of rain and thunderstorms likely.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

A weak surface ridge has moved over the CWA early today in the wake of a cold front that's pushing SE through the Greater Philly area.

Some patchy valley fog is likely across central and northern PA where air/water temp differences are the greatest.

Very little in the way of clouds will be found today, aside from some spotty shallow cu across mainly the higher terrain per the latest HREF cloud panels.

Integrated smoke and llvl smoke point toward some dimmed sunshine and slightly hazy conditions (Late morning through mid afternoon NW PA and mainly this afternoon and early evening across the Central region and Susq Valley.

Afternoon max temps today will range from the mid 70s across the highest terrain of the North and West to between 80 and 85 in the Central and Southern Valleys. These readings will be around 5F above normal in most locations.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/

High pressure ridge drifting off to the east tonight will create a return flow of slightly higher dewpoints and combine with the insulating effect of the aforementioned smoke and veil of high clouds spreading in from the west to bring a notably milder night with mins varying from the upper 50s (North and West high terrain) to the low and mid 60s in the Central and Southern Valleys.

After a mostly sunny and quite warm Thursday with temps peaking for the week in the upper 70s (Northern Mtns) to upper 80s in the Southern Valleys (which will be +5-10F above normal), a quasi stationary west to east frontal zone setting up near the PA/NY border will become a focus for episodic rain and thunderstorms Thursday night and Friday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

No sig changes with this long-term update. A very wet/high-PoP time period, for sure.

Prev... Later this week, model consensus points to an upper trough axis digging in along the west coast of North America, a broad and building upper ridge over the central CONUS, and a persistent trough axis from northeast Canada into the north Atlantic. This leaves PA within a quasi-zonal to northwest flow pattern aloft, with heights more elevated, at least compared to earlier in the week.

As for the daily sensible weather, a surface cold front should slow in its approach, as it essentially becomes parallel to the WNW flow pattern aloft. In all likelihood, this will translate to an increase in showers and thunderstorms, at least for the afternoon and evening hours on Friday through the weekend. Uncertainty increases later in the period as a trough lifts out of the Mississippi Valley and approaches from the southwest. There is disagreement in the guidance as to how this feature evolves, but it will likely lead to another period of showers and storms into the beginning of the week.

Temperatures will be within 10 degrees of seasonal normals for mid-June, with daily highs mostly in the 70s (northern mountains) to upper 70s-to-mid 80s (southern valleys) range.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

High confidence (> 90%) in VFR conditions prevailing through TOnight as the surface cold front pushes east of the region, with high pressure stationed over the Ohio Valley.

Smoke from the Canadian wildfires will filter into the region this morning with smoke aloft and recent HRRR guidance depicts an area of low-level smoke moving into Central PA later this afternoon. Do not expect sub-VFR visibility restrictions in haze, but reductions below 10SM are certainly a possibility. West-southwest winds could gust 15 to 25kts this afternoon (highest at BFD).

Overnight, a 30-40kt low level jet will move into north central PA and could bring some LLWS to BFD, IPT, and UNV. There is also a low chance (<30%) of a brief period of MVFR ceilings at BFD around daybreak on Thursday, but not enough confidence to prevail MVFR at this time.

Outlook...

Thu...Isolated PM showers/storms across northern PA.

Fri...Scattered showers & storms.

Sat-Sun...More numerous showers & storms.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.