textproduct: State College
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* No significant changes
KEY MESSAGES
1) Frost/freeze conditions are probable Monday night and Tuesday night
2) Little to no rainfall forecast through October 9th
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Frost/freeze conditions are probable Monday night and Tuesday night
The coldest air of the early Autumn season is poised to arrive by early next week with frost/freeze conditions expected Monday night and Tuesday night over much of the forecast area. Locations to the northwest of I-81 have the highest odds for frost with min temps around the freezing mark in the northern tier.
------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Little to no rainfall forecast through Oct. 9th
Increasingly moist low level southeast flow will bring low clouds and some light rain to areas along and east of the Allegheny Front later tonight through Sunday. Total QPF is <0.10 inch. This is the only precip fcst for the next 7 days.
Secondary cold front followed by colder WNW flow could bring a couple of showers downwind of Lake Erie Sunday night into early Monday. Otherwise, we continue to have high confidence in a prolonged dry stretch through next week as a large area of Canadian high pressure dominates the pattern.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Return southeasterly flow the remainder of tonight into today will bring in low level southerly moisture capable of low ceilings todays with some sprinkles of rain too. This moisture advection has the potential for early morning 10Z-12Z MVFR ceiling drops at sites like AOO and JST, whereas most other sites see drops closer to the 12Z dawn timeframe.
Restrictions are likely to remain throughout Sunday with southern terminals most likely to see drizzly/misty conditions that may lower surface visibility. A weaker upper level forcing mechanism and unimpressive PWATs should preclude a heavier rain threat. Low clouds with widespread MVFR/IFR restrictions are likely until a cold front passes through late Sunday night/early Monday morning with drier air filtering behind it.
Outlook...
Mon-Thu. VFR prevailing. Brief restrictions possible in late night and early morning fog.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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