textproduct: State College
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
No significant changes.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Seasonable with some showers through midweek followed by more unsettled and cooler conditions over the weekend
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonable with some showers through midweek followed by more unsettled and cooler conditions over the weekend
Crumbling cu into tonight setting up some valley fog formation into early Wednesday morning. Cold front crossing Lake Erie should be accompanied by rain showers into the northwest Alleghenies early Wednesday. The front may touch off some additional showers/isolated t-storm across the northwest 1/2 of the forecast area through Wednesday afternoon. Another period of rain should be focused across the southern portion of the CWA on Thursday with some locally heavy downpours possible (new D3 WPC ERO MRGL risk). The end of the week looks nice as high pressure migrates over the Keystone state.
An upper trough carving out over the Great Lakes will result in increasingly unsettled to potentially stormy wx conditions over the weekend. This system will also deliver some relatively cooler air both at the surface and aloft. This setup could prove favorable for clusters of gusty t-storms with small hail. The troughing pattern holds on into next week which favors temps near to slightly below the historical average for late August.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR prevailing through the 18/18Z TAF window. Some valley fog is possible overnight into early Wednesday morning, but drier air, less ground moisture, and bearish guidance kept mention out of this package. Can't rule out some MVFR showers reaching KBFD in the 12-18Z Wednesday period, but for now will stick with VFR.
Outlook...
Wed... VFR conditions with local restrictions possible in showers/isolated t-storm across the western half of the area.
Thu...Periods of showers focused across the southern half of central PA.
Fri...AM fog, otherwise trending VFR.
Sat-Sun...Scattered to numerous showers/t-storms likely especially on Sunday.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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