textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Prime stretch of Fall weather is in the late innings with rain and breezy conditions forecast Sunday from Isaias

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Prime stretch of Fall weather is in the late innings with rain and breezy conditions forecast Sunday from Isaias

The ongoing string of dry and comfortable Fall days and crisp, cool Autumn nights will come to an end on Sunday as rain and breezy conditions arrive from Isaias.

We can't rule out some patchy frost across the usually colder valley spots in the NW Alleghenies and Laurel Highlands tonight.

Rainfall timing continues to focus during the day on Sunday before tapering off Sunday night into early Monday/Columbus Day. Total rainfall amounts are generally forecast in the 0.50-1.50 inch range over a 24-36hr duration with a low risk of potential flooding impacts. Wind gusts 35-40 mph are possible over the ridgetops in the Laurel Highlands on Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR prevails across central Pennsylvania this afternoon as drier air (surface dew points in the 30s) filters in behind a dry frontal passage. W-NW winds will continue to gust around 20-25 kts areawide until the boundary layer decouples near sunset, with diurnal cumulus tapering off at that time as well.

Patchy valley fog may develop later tonight, though even the lowest visibilities from the 12Z HREF members show very little fog overnight. While patchy fog appears to be favored across northern Pennsylvania (KBFD/KIPT), no mentions of fog were added into the TAF due to lower coverage expected.

VFR conditions will continue on Friday as a high pressure builds in across the region, with a lighter W-NW breeze of around 10 kts expected.

Outlook...

Sat...VFR conditions expected.

Sun-Mon...Restrictions likely in lower ceilings and rain.

Tue...VFR favored, though a FROPA may bring restrictions in -SHRA. AM fog possible.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.