textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No significant changes

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unseasonably warm start to October precedes weekend cooldown and frost/freeze risk early next week

2) Not much rain expected for the first 10 days of October

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Unseasonably warm start to October precedes weekend cooldown and frost/freeze risk early next week

Late week warm spell fades into the first weekend of October. Max temps are projected to peak 10-15 degrees above the historical average today/tomorrow before trending seasonably cooler over the weekend into next week. The cooldown will be highlighted by frost potential across the western and central Alleghenies Monday and Tuesday night with min temps near the freezing mark across the northern tier.

------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Not much rain expected for the first 7-10 days of October

We see 2-3 limited opportunities for rain over the next 7+ days in CPA. The first is this morning over the northern tier where observed precip has been largely negligible to barely measurable. The second will occur on Friday as cold front slicing to the southeast from the eastern Great Lakes triggers more widespread light to moderate shower activity. The 3rd window for rain is on Sunday focused mainly over the southern and eastern portions of the CWA. High confidence in a dry stretch for much of next week as large area of Canadian high pressure dominates the pattern.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Light rain will continue to move in from the west across the northern half of PA, likely bringing at least a few showers to BFD, UNV, and IPT. Ceilings and visibility are most likely to remain VFR as this rain moves in, but a brief drop to MVFR visibility is possible. All other TAF sites are expected to remain dry through the rest of the night. Some patchy fog may develop over the Lower Susquehanna Valley tonight, but confidence on any visibility restrictions is low. The 00Z HREF shows a 40 to 50 percent chance of seeing vsby drop below 6SM at MDT and LNS, but model soundings from the RAP and HRRR support VFR continuing through the night.

Mainly dry conditions are expected after 14Z under varying amounts of mid and high clouds, along with west-southwest winds at 5 to 10 knots. A few gusts to 20 knots may be possible at BFD and JST during the afternoon. Cloud cover increases once again into Friday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Any rain associated with this front likely holds off until after 12Z Friday. LLWS will be a concern into Friday morning as a 40 to 60 knot southwesterly low-level jet moves in from the west. Wind shear is most likely at BFD and JST, though AOO, UNV, and IPT could may see LLWS develop after 06Z.

Outlook...

Fri...Cold FROPA with showers along the front.

Sat...VFR favored behind the FROPA. AM fog possible.

Sun...Restrictions possible as a weak low pressure system develops along the residual frontal boundary over the Mid- Atlantic. -RA possible, more so across southern and eastern PA.

Mon...Dry conditions with VFR prevailing.

CLIMATE

September 2026 precipitation rankings

IPT: 11th wettest (6.84") MDT: 26th wettest (4.72") AOO: 9th wettest (5.58") BFD: 10th wettest (4.85") JST: 3rd wettest (7.31") *since 2000 STC: 6th wettest (7.90")

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.