textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Freeze Warning in effect 1-9AM Sunday

KEY MESSAGES

1) Frost/Freeze late tonight into early Sunday morning

2) Extended stretch of dry weather next week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Frost/Freeze late tonight into early Sunday morning

A noticeably cooler northerly breeze, expansive cloud cover, and spotty light precip this morning eventually gives way to clearing skies and diminishing wind by tonight as high pressure slides eastward from the Ohio Valley. This sets up favorable conditions for a widespread frost/freeze overnight into early Sunday morning with the coldest min temps in the 25-30F range. The overnight frost/freeze risk will continue for portions of CPA into next week.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Extended stretch of dry weather next week

High pressure anchored on the northwest side of developing Nor'easter off the NC coast will provide another extended stretch of dry weather in CPA Sunday through next week. This pattern will feature seasonably warm days, chilly nights, and low humidity.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions outside of BFD where showers in the vicinity of the airfield have brought ceilings back towards MVFR thresholds as of 10Z. Showers at BFD appear to be the main concern in the near-term; however, showers appear to be mainly just west and east of the airfield based on recent radar trends so have just outlined a couple of hours of VCSH given low certainty on rainfall at the airfield. There will be some low-end chances for JST/AOO to briefly go towards MVFR thresholds given low-level moisture and cloud decks hovering around MVFR thresholds, but general thought is they will lift towards VFR after 12Z Saturday. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are virtually certain throughout the 12Z TAF period based on consensus of all model guidance. HREF does outline some potential for valley fog near BFD in the 09Z-12Z timeframe Sunday; however, given the dry air in place post-cold frontal passage, not entirely sold on fog reaching into the airfield at this time. That being said, have outlined VCFG for the fog potential in the valleys surrounding the airfield with lower confidence in visibility/ceiling restrictions at the airfield.

Outlook...

Sun-Wed...AM fog possible; otherwise, VFR conditions prevail.

CLIMATE

Daily record max temperature of 83 degrees set at Altoona yesterday 10/16. The previous record was 81 set in 1962.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ004-006- 010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066.