textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Increased winds, increased PoPs (NW only), and decreased dewpoints on Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Considerable cool down into the last weekend of March followed by resurgence of Spring warmth to kick off April

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Considerable cool down into the last weekend of March followed by resurgence of Spring warmth to kick off April

A raw northerly wind/low level CAA will direct noticeably cooler air into CPA today with daytime highs in the 35-55F range (north to south) or 25-35 degrees lower than Thursday. Precipitation is now largely south of the Mason-Dixon Line and clouds - though stubborn so far - should ever so slowly erode away as high pressure builds in later today and into Saturday.

A benign weather pattern is expected for much of the weekend thanks to seasonably strong sfc high pressure migrating eastward from the Midwest. The passage of an upper level trough late tonight into early Saturday could trigger some lake enhanced showers over the northern tier, but the sensible weather on the whole will be chilly and uneventful to start the last weekend of March.

Some uncertainty remains as far as how much cloud cover and how many snow showers will emerge on Saturday with a fairly chilly airmass overhead. Sufficient instability will provide enough lift for stratocumulus and scattered snow showers, especially across the northeast, but particularly dry air above the boundary layer could just as easily mix down and limit cloud cover/snow potential. More cloud cover would keep dewpoints up and limit any potential for fire weather concerns. On the other hand, more clearing would mean deeper mixing, gustier winds, lower dewpoints, and higher temperatures. The latter scenario could lead to an elevated risk of wildfire spread on Saturday with RH values dipping below 30 percent. The Bureau of Forestry indicates that fuels (leaves/grasses/etc.) are moist enough to prevent significant fire weather concerns, but please use caution if planning to burn any debris this weekend.

As we head into next week, all model signals point to a resurgence of Spring warmth to close out the month and kick off April. An anomalous ridge of high pressure will shift from the western US to the east coast and bring a prolonged stretch of southwesterly flow. This will support temperatures in the 60s and 70s for the middle of next week. As the western US ridge is replaced by a deep trough, severe weather chances will increase across the Plains. This will lead to a resurgence of moisture and a fairly active/rainy/stormy pattern in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic through Easter weekend. Warm & wet looks like the theme for Central PA for the first couple weeks of April. Spring growth should commence with haste over the next few weeks.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A deck of stratocu. will continue to scatter/lift across central Pennsylvania this evening as northerly flow draws in drier air from the north, with VFR expected across all sites later this evening. Winds will shift to be more northwesterly overnight due to a shortwave approaching from the west, with wind speeds increasing to 10-15 kts & gusts to 20-25 kts beginning tomorrow morning. Spotty flurries and snow showers are possible across the region from 03z onwards as this shortwave moves through, though confidence is still low (20%) in terms of coverage and timing. Brief restrictions to MVFR could be possible with these snow showers, primarily due to visibilities. Outlook...

Sun...VFR.

Mon...SCT -SHRA with restrictions poss, mainly W.

Tue...NMRS SHRA. TSRA poss W.

Wed...SCT -SHRA with restrictions poss.

CLIMATE

A daily record rainfall of 0.58 inches was set at Altoona yesterday. This broke the previous record of 0.57 inches set back in 1978.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.