textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Added mention of fire weather concerns as a key message

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain-free and mild conditions will persist through the end of October

2) Fire weather concerns may start to increase later this week

3) Trending wetter to start November

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain-free and mild conditions will persist through the end of October

After a prolonged stretch of blue sky and sunshine, we'll see increasing clouds today as a moisture-deprived warm front lifts through the region. No rain is expected, but temperatures will be several degrees cooler this afternoon compared to Tuesday.

Temperatures will trend warmer on Thursday ahead of another cold front and then decrease a bit into the weekend. Saturday will be similar to Wednesday with increasing clouds but no rain. Daytime and overnight temperatures will be +5 to +15 degrees above average for this time of year through the weekend, providing great conditions for trick or treat. Whether neighborhoods are hosting beggars night on Halloween or moving it earlier, mild and dry conditions will prevail.

-------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Fire weather concerns may start to increase later this week.

It has been almost two weeks since we've received any measurable rainfall across Central PA. The combination of drying fuels, increasing leaf litter, and low humidity air could result in an elevated risk of wildfire spread Friday and Saturday. Friday could be a bit breezy in the wake of a cold front. We will continue to be in close communication with the PA Bureau of Forestry about potentially ramping up our wildfire safety messaging if conditions warrant.

-------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: Trending wetter to start November

After a rain-free second half of October, November will start off with a couple chances for rain. There remains some model uncertainty, but a trough should move through the central part of the United States early next week. This should deliver enough upper level support to generate some accumulating rainfall across the Commonwealth. Climate Prediction Center outlooks lean wetter than average for the first couple of weeks in November, though the signal is not super strong. Temperature trends favor above normal temperatures with much higher confidence. Notably, the monthly outlook for November begins to take on a classic El Nino pattern with above normal precipitation favored across the southeast US up through the I-95 corridor and below normal precipitation for the Great Lakes. This could set the stage for an active storm track bringing wet conditions to the Lower Susquehanna Valley while the northwest mountains continue their dry trend. Any locations that continue to be drier than average will need to be monitored for an elevated wildfire risk as we head deeper into fall.

AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

High clouds will overspread the region today with southwest flow aloft ahead of an approaching warm front. At the surface, southeasterly winds will pool moisture east of the Alleghenies and bring a risk for reduced ceilings/visibility in the south central mountains this morning. Reductions are likely at KAOO (high confidence in MVFR, IFR ceilings possible), but brief restrictions are also possible at LNS, MDT, and UNV this morning (generally 11Z-15Z).

Ceilings will lift and clouds will clear out later this afternoon as high pressure builds in once again. High confidence in VFR prevailing through 06Z. Thereafter, increasing moisture, clear skies, and light winds will support the potential for potentially dense valley fog tonight. Highest confidence in restrictions at KBFD, KMDT, and KLNS, but KIPT and KUNV may also experience reduced visibility/ceilings.

Outlook...

Thu...AM valley fog then VFR.

Fri...MVFR ceilings possible mainly in the north and west.

Sat...MVFR possible north, VFR elsewhere.

Sun...VFR continues, rain possible Sunday night.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.