textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Expanded mention of fog to much of the area overnight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry for today, though daily chances for showers and thunderstorms return on Monday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Mainly dry for today, though daily chances for showers and thunderstorms return on Monday.

One area of strong storms just southwest of Somerset Co. These should pass to the south of our area, but cold front well to the northwest still. Models bring in lower dewpt air into central PA later today, so will go with the dry model solution for now, but would not be surprise something pops up today.

As the airmass dries out a bit this afternoon, temperatures will likely be warmer than in past days.

Warm and more humid airmass works back into the area on Monday, given rise to more showers and storms.

At this point, looks like the main chance for strong storms and heavy rain would be mainly to the southwest, more like Ohio into WV. NAM lowers dewpoints again on Tuesday, supporting more in the way of dry weather after early Tue.

Cooler for late week, but with weak systems moving southeast in a northwest flow pattern, could still be wet at times.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Few changes were made from the 06Z TAF / previous discussion. PROB30s for -SHRA between around 09Z-12Z Monday were introduced for KBFD/KIPT/KUNV, where scattered shower activity may be more likely closer to the surface low, with possible 5SM mentioned for KBFD and 6SM for KIPT/KUNV.

Previous discussion: Overnight, scattered showers/thundershowers will continue along a SW-NE axis of enhanced moisture (around 1.5" PWATs) as a weak cold front moves across the Northeastern US, with convective activity downtrending as we head into the diurnal minimum & upper-level support in left exit of weakening jet streak at 250 mb. Ample moisture (surface Td around 70F regionwide) may result in low stratus (mainly MVFR-IFR) across the higher elevations at KBFD/KJST (08Z-14Z Sunday). As diurnally driven cumulus field develops in the morning, MVFR ceilings are possible (primarily Northern Tier and Central Mountains, KBFD/KJST/KAOO/KUNV/KIPT) given low-level moisture in place, with regionwide VFR & westerly winds of 5-10 kts expected during the afternoon/evening.

VFR conditions remain favored for much of Sunday night, with mainly clear skies giving way to increasing clouds overnight ahead of a disturbance over the Great Lakes region. SHRA/TSRA activity may develop towards daybreak Monday, primarily across our northern terminals (KBFD/KIPT) closer to the surface low, with potential for temporary restrictions and briefly gusty winds (heavier showers may transport 30 kt winds down from LLJ at 925 mb).

Outlook...

Mon-Thu...Scattered showers/storms. Restrictions possible.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.