textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Made minor tweaks to temps/dewpoints in the next two days.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain-free conditions will persist through the end of October and possibly the first day of November

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain-free conditions will persist through the end of October and possibly the first day of November

Cold front entering wrn NY and headed our way. It should pass through during the evening and early part of the night. Expect no precip from the clouds it generates, as there is only limited moisture with it. The high pressure behind it is slightly milder than the current airmass. Thus, temps and dewpoints should not be as low for the next couple of days as the front stalls off to our south. It should return northward as a warm front Wed, but should again only make clouds for Central PA. The next airmass does slide eastward instead of stalling overhead, and will help to set up a return, moist-er flow from the SW. But, it will take a day or two to bring up enough moisture to build up enough to make rain. It looks like Saturday night or Sunday would be the next chc for precip.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Not much change from when I did the 00Z TAF package.

Lower CIGS now into far northern PA, as I expected earlier.

Minor adjustments made for the 06Z TAF set.

Earlier discussion below.

A weak cold front over NY state will slowly drop southward overnight. Not expecting any showers with the front this far south.

A rather dry airmass, so low CIGS will be limited. Went with the fcst the 18Z TAF package had for the most part. The main chance of lower CIGS is BFD, and even there I slowed down the lower CIGS by a few hours. With the front moving across the area, cooling and fog formation less likely than a few nights ago. Another good night for a bright moon as well.

More information below.

Again, a cold front will pass through PA tonight where winds will take on a more northerly tilt behind it into tomorrow. Some lower clouds trail behind this front, however with the lack of moisture to work with, widespread restrictions don't look likely. The main areas to watch for MVFR restrictions at this time are the western terminals BFD, JST, and AOO where some of the guidance has the highest probabilities for sub 2kft ceilings.

Outlook...

Wed-Thu...VFR likely.

Fri...MVFR cigs possible mainly in the north and west due to a cold front.

Sat...Mainly VFR conditions.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.