textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Increased cloud cover for the rest of today and tonight and expanded slight chance PoPs farther to the west for this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated to scattered diurnal showers are possible, mainly across the Northeastern 1/4 of the CWA today/tonight as a deepening surface/upper level low moves slowly over the Southern New England Coast. Otherwise, drying trend to wrap up the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Isolated to scattered diurnal showers are expected will occur across the Northeastern 1/4 of the CWA today/tonight as a deepening surface/upper level low moves slowly over the Southern New England Coast. Otherwise, drying trend to wrap up the week.

Northwest flow/wraparound moisture rotating around the western side of a deepening trough and slow moving sfc/upper low will continue to promote the development of stratocu across much of the region. A vort max pivoting through the western edge of the upper low will cross the region this afternoon and evening which should help to trigger a few showers over northeast PA. High temps today will vary from the upper 60s across the Northern Mtns to the low 80s in the Southeast.

The upper low begins to move off to the east tomorrow, though a few showers may linger through the first half of the day. Expect drier conditions for Friday and Saturday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Saturday night through Sunday ahead of an approaching shortwave, but there are still considerable differences regarding the timing of this feature.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

The cloud deck over the region continues to persist as the upper low moves over the Mid-Atlantic region into New England this evening. Some clearing of skies will be possible over the west, but be brief in nature. VFR is expected to prevail overnight for all terminals. Fog potential overall looks fairly minimal, with HREF 10th percentile members only outlining JST for low clouds/visibility overnight into Thursday morning. After 12Z Thursday, widespread VFR conditions are expected; however, HREF model guidance outlines an increasing 3000-5000ft AGL low- level cloud deck that will bring some lower end (< 30%) potential for MVFR ceilings towards the end of the 18Z TAF period.

Outlook...

Fri...Mainly VFR.

Sat...Mainly VFR early with increasing chances of SHRA/TSRA later in the evening hours. Restrictions possible.

Sun...More widespread SHRA with PM TSRA possible, increased chances of restrictions in heavier SHRA/TSRA.

Mon...AM SHRA with PM TSRA possible. Restrictions possible, especially SE where chances for SHRA/TSRA are higher.

CLIMATE

Daily maximum rainfall records were set at Johnstown and Bradford on Tuesday, Jul 28.

JST: 1.63 inches of rain broke the record of 1.41 inches set in 1923.

BFD: 3.89 inches of rain broke the record of 2.50 inches set in 1981.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.