textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Lowered dewpoints/RH each afternoon through Thursday

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry spell continues in advance of returning summer warmth

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry spell continues in advance of returning summer warmth

The recent stretch of dry weather continues this week as Canadian high pressure migrates southeast from Hudson Bay off the Carolina coast by the weekend. Only exception may be a stray sprinkle on Tue afternoon/evening as a weak upper wave rounds the west side of the trough to our east. Enjoy the comfortable to seasonally pleasant conditions with no rain forecast for another 5-6 days.

A shift in the pattern will bring rising temperatures and humidity levels for late week with summer conditions returning into the first weekend of June. Max temps climb above early June climo into the 75-85F range on Thursday followed by widespread 80-90F readings fcst Friday through Sunday.

An approaching cold front will bring an increasing chance for scattered showers/t-storms Saturday into Sunday (max POPs on Sunday), with rain chances continuing into next week.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Northerly winds of up to around 10 kts are expected this afternoon, with spotty gusts to 15-20 kts possible. Diurnal heating (0-3 km lapse rates to 8-9 C/km) and cool air aloft (700 mb temperatures around -5 C) will support an afternoon cumulus field (SCT/BKN at 5000-8000 ft) + a few isolated light showers. With that said, the lack of organized lifting mechanisms in place & prohibitively dry air aloft (RH <5% above 700 mb) limits shower coverage/certainty below 30%.

High pressure building in from the north will bring a backdoor cold front down the Northeastern Seaboard later this evening, reaching the Lower Susquehanna Valley (KMDT/KLNS) by 23Z Monday - 03Z Tuesday & continuing across the Central Mountains (KIPT/KUNV/KAOO/KJST) later in the night (03Z-08Z Tuesday). Easterly winds and VFR ceilings will accompany this front, with brief 15-20 kt gusts possible at KLNS/KMDT. Easterly winds will lighten in the wake of this frontal passage, bringing sufficient conditions for patchy valley fog before daybreak (primarily 07Z-12Z Tuesday). Lingering clouds & dry surface conditions (Td around 5 C) may limit fog coverage, with no visibility restrictions included in the TAF at this time.

Otherwise, daytime conditions on Tuesday will mirror Monday's, with high pressure bringing a gentle northerly breeze + a VFR cumulus field bringing isolated light showers with minimal flight impacts expected.

Outlook...

Mon-Fri...VFR with no significant weather. Any showers that develop Mon/Tue will be light and spotty. Any fog very limited.

Sat...VFR favored with restrictions possible in -SHRA

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.