textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Keeping an eye on rain amounts/intensity in the SW.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Numerous showers ahead of a cold front will die off as we lose the heating of the sun.

2) An unsettled but not particularly wet period is expected mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Numerous showers ahead of a cold front will die off as we lose the heating of the sun.

The cold front is advancing through northern PA showing up as thin line of shallow convectionm at 3 PM. The air behind the front is not all that dry, but enough of a change should take place that those in nrn PA should notice tonight and Tuesday. The immediate showers and a couple of thunderstorms out ahead of the front in the 68-71F dewpoint airmass seem to be moving along consistently/quickly. But, some training is starting to occur. We'll have to keep an eye on the radar and radar/gauge estimates to exceed FFG. But, thus far, the heaviest rates do not get to that level of worry. Not thinking of a flood watch at this point with the threat sub-concerning. The stronger forcing will linger over the NE counties early this evening, but most of this convection will die off around sunset.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: An unsettled but not particularly wet period is expected mid to late week.

After a dry 36 hrs tonight thru Wed AM, a short wave trough rotating around the base of the deep upper low over Hudson & James Bays. It will be the next help to lift and destabilize the air over PA. Expect some showers to impinge upon Warren Co in the aftn on Wed and spread along the NY border. Some of them could advance another county to the south before daylight wanes and they die off. Precip chcs Wed night and Thurs AM now look a little lower than previous forecasts. But, isolated showers are still possible then. Heights do dip for real on Thursday/night and will probably develop a weak low pressure system to our south. That low will push east to the sea Friday. Some light to moderate rain should overrun the boundary to our south and make the southern half of the CWA wet - but not too wet - on Thurs night and early Friday. Model agreement lowers for the weekend, clouding the crystal ball. PoPs end up at 40-50% Sat and Sun without confidence in the forecast being either wet or dry.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

After a few strong storms across the middle and lower Susquehanna Valley late this afternoon, only a few showers left from northeastern PA to southwestern PA. Expect this activity to slowly weaken. Dewpoints still very high to the east and south, was a hot and humid afternoon down that way, thus expect that area to be the last to see the activity taper off.

Once skies clear out more and winds weaken, expect fog overnight, as fcst temperatures drop toward the fcst dewpoints. Spots like UNV that got a heavier shower this afternoon will be the more likely spots to get dense fog.

Expect conditions to improve Tuesday morning, once the sun is up. Still warm on Tuesday, but with some breeze and lower dewpoints, expect conditions to be VFR all areas by mid morning.

Warm advection on Wednesday will bring a chance of showers and storms to the area later in the afternoon and overnight.

Outlook...

Wed... VFR conditions with restrictions from afternoon SHRA/TSRA possible in the northwest early.

Thu... Afternoon SHRA/TSRA with brief restrictions possible. Otherwise, VFR conditions.

Fri...Chance of SHRA across the south, restrictions possible, otherwise dry.

Sat...Chance of SHRA statewide, restrictions possible.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.