textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Fire weather concerns Friday

2) Dry and mild conditions to start November

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Fire weather concerns Friday

It has been almost two weeks since measurable rainfall has been observed across Central PA. A cold front will sweep through the area from northwest to southeast overnight into Friday morning. There will be a few light rain showers downwind of Lake Erie in the northwest Alleghenies, but dry conditions are expected to continue for most of the forecast area. Friday will be breezy in the wake of the cold front with marginally low afternoon RH values and max gusts forecast in the 20-30 mph range. These conditions will likely result in an elevated risk of wildfire spread Friday afternoon with PA Bureau of Forestry partners indicating fuels are sufficiently dry/cured. Although relative humidity values will remain low through the weekend, lighter winds should limit the risk of rapid wildfire spread. Even still, individuals should limit activities that could start a fire. 99% of wildfires in Pennsylvania are caused by humans!

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Dry and mild conditions to start November

The latest model guidance indicates the lengthy dry and mild spell will last through Halloween and into the first few days of November. There continues to be a building signal toward an appreciable rain and possible wind event during the second half of next week.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR continues into tonight. A cold front will sweep southeast across the airspace late tonight and early Friday morning. The front will likely trigger a few rain showers downwind of Lake Erie reaching KBFD. Sub-VFR ceilings are most likely in the favored upslope terrain impacting KBFD and KJST as sfc winds shift from 230-260 to 280-310 degrees behind the front. A period of LLWS is also possible ahead of the cold front. Wind gusts 20-25kts are forecast by Friday afternoon from 290-320 degrees with MVFR/IFR cigs over the higher terrain improving to VFR.

Outlook...

Sat-Tue...A.M. valley fog; otherwise VFR.

CLIMATE

NOTE: October 29th is the anniversary of two historic weather events to impact central Pennsylvania in the past 15 years: Sandy in 2012 and the heavy/wet early season Snowstorm in 2011.

Daily record highs for 10/29:

MDT 79/1946 Harrisburg ASOS IPT 77/1945 Williamsport ASOS AOO 77/1971 Altoona ASOS BFD 72/1999 Bradford ASOS STC 74/1950 State College COOP (7AM-7AM)

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.