textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Lowered dewpoints and raised wind gusts slightly for the rest of the afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures trend warmer today through the first few days of the upcoming week, ahead of a system that will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Temperatures start to trend warmer today through the first few days of the upcoming week, ahead of a system that will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday.

After the nip in the air today with highs still 5-10 deg F below normal, expect to see high temperatures jump into the 60s and 70s on Monday and Tuesday as a moderately gusty southwesterly flow develops out ahead of the next, slow-moving cold front.

A few locations across south-central PA may even push the 80 degree mark Tuesday afternoon. Scattered-numerous showers will impact the region (mainly the NW 1/2 of PA) on Tuesday, especially across northwest PA. The higher chance for showers and thunderstorms looks to be on Wednesday and Thursday ahead of a slow-moving cold front.

Temperatures once again turn cooler behind this front for late in the upcoming week, with potential frost/freeze concerns developing.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

00z update... Confidence remains quite high (90+%) in VFR/unrestricted conditions through 00z Tuesday.

As a surface ridge shifts off the east coast later tonight and Monday, low-level winds will switch into the S and SW and become gusty (up to 20-25 kt) by midday Monday.

Outlook...

Tue...SHRA/TSRA becomes more widespread from NW to SE; restrictions possible.

Wed-Thu...SHRA/TSRA continue; restrictions likely.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.