textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Blowing snow threat has ended as wind gusts fall into the 15-35 mph range tonight. For Sunday night, diminishing winds and clear skies with high pressure building in will likely allow temps to fall well below zero in spots.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Blustery and frigid with dangerous wind chills through Sunday morning; although wind diminishes Sunday night, a cold weather advisory may be needed through Monday morning as cold air lingers.

2) Moderating temperatures and uncertain precipitation pattern for the second week of February

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Blustery and frigid with dangerous wind chills through Sunday morning; although wind diminishes Sunday night, a Cold Weather Advisory may be needed through Monday morning as cold air lingers.

Min wind chills 10 to 25 below zero will continue to grip CPA through early Sunday morning. Extreme cold warnings remain in effect until midday Sunday. NW winds will continue to gust 15 to 35 mph through Sunday afternoon.

A cold weather advisory may be needed through Monday AM. High pressure will build overhead Sunday night, resulting in diminishing winds and mostly clear skies. Given those conditions as well as snow on the ground, radiational cooling will likely result in temps falling well below zero in spots.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Moderating temperatures and uncertain precipitation pattern for the second week of February

Temps remain on track to bounce back to near/slightly above normal for the second week of February. Of course, this is all relative coming out of a prolonged and brutally cold period over the past 2 weeks. The longer range outlooks lean "not as cold" into the third week of February as well, so maybe the peak of the winter cold is behind us in the rear-view mirror?:)

Models continue to struggle with the precip pattern in a split flow regime. 07/00Z model runs and the latest NBM and AI suites would favor a mainly dry consensus for next week.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Cold northwest flow will continue to bring low end VFR to MVFR ceilings to northern and western TAF sites through the night. BFD and JST will see the most persistent MVFR ceilings, while AOO and UNV likely see more VFR than MVFR. Scattered snow showers across northern and western PA will taper off into the early morning, but a brief drop in vsby is possible at BFD and JST through 09Z if any snow showers move directly over the airfield. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 knots continue through the night.

MVFR ceilings stick around at BFD and JST into the afternoon while the rest of the area will be VFR. High pressure building into Central PA from the west will allow for skies to clear out and winds to decrease to 5 to 10 knots during the evening. While VFR conditions are favored at all TAF sites for Sunday night, some guidance does show low-level moisture becoming trapped beneath a subsidence inversion. If this were to occur, low ceilings or even some fog could develop at BFD.

Outlook...

Mon-Tue...No sig wx.

Wed-Thu...Mixed precipitation possible.

CLIMATE

After several winters, have had our share of cold days this season, often on weekends. Similar to winters 92-93, 93-94, 95-96, and December 2022, where we had some really cold days and significant stormy conditions.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046- 049>053-056>059-063>066.