textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Tweaked dewpoints and temps in the very near term to match trends.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Ongoing dry spell precedes surge of midsummer heat for the first weekend of June

2) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon and evening

3) Warmth surges again next week with a classic summerlike pattern expected - though uncertainty remains.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Ongoing dry spell precedes surge of midsummer heat for the first weekend of June

Very minor changes in this evening update. High clouds spilling over the ridge too fast to resolve with hourly sky cover grids. So a general 20-40 pct value is good for the overnight.

Previous... The 7-9 day stretch of dry weather continues through Friday. Rising temperatures along with a moderate uptick in dewpoints still on track to deliver a surge of midsummer heat for the first weekend of June. Max temps climb +5-10F above climo into the 75-85F range this afternoon followed by widespread 80-90F readings Friday and Saturday. Dewpoints will be in the 50s on Friday and 60s on Saturday, which will bring noticeable humidity back to the region.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon and evening

A cold front sliding southeastward from the Great Lakes will bring an increasing chance for showers/t-storms Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. SPC has introduced a level 2/5 severe t-storm risk focused over western PA where the most favorable overlap of stronger instability, vertical shear, and forcing for ascent are expected to materialize. Showers and a couple storms will weaken as they drift southeast Saturday night into early Sunday. Model data has reduced odds for rain on Sunday with the best chance/max POPs now focused over south central into southeast PA. Rainfall totals will be highest in the northwest, while parts of southeast PA may see little to no rain. This pattern does not bode well for ongoing drought conditions.

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KEY MESSAGE 3: Warmth surges again next week with a classic summerlike pattern expected - though uncertainty remains.

Following a modest cool down on Monday, emerging model data continues to signal dry precip pattern with above normal temperatures for the rest of next week. Even the cool down on Monday will see above normal high temperatures for most of the area. Temperatures will surge back into the 80s and 90s by the end of the week. Long range models diverge on potential solutions toward the end of next week. A prevailing ridge will be in place over the eastern US will ensure above normal temperatures, but an upper level closed low could develop. Such a solution would bring cool temperatures aloft steepening lapse rates and leading to daily afternoon pulse thunderstorms. If the upper level low does not form, very warm conditions would be a slam dunk. If it does form, afternoon heat could be broken by showers and storms for some. Regardless, it will be a hot end of the week with either hot and dry conditions or warm and stormy weather.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Influence of high pressure will lead to tranquil flying conditions across all of central Pennsylvania through 06Z Saturday with very high (> 90%) confidence. Recent NBM/HREF model guidance continues to indicate high-level clouds throughout much of overnight period; however, generally expect ceilings to remain above 25kft AGL with low-level dry air likely allowing for little fog development. Winds increase in the 15Z-23Z Friday timeframe, with maximum winds/gusts topping out at JST/BFD (likely just above 15 kts) before decreasing into the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Sat...VFR conds favored early, brief restrictions possible in late-day -SHRA/-TSRA.

Sun...Restrictions possible in more widespread SHRA/TSRA.

Mon-Tue...Prevailing VFR outside of isolated morning fog.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.