textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No significant changes

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain-free conditions will persist through the end of October and possibly the first day of November

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain-free conditions will persist through the end of October and possibly the first day of November

An area of high pressure will settle south across the Carolinas and southern Appalachians today, allowing a weak/dry cold front to drift southeast across the District this afternoon and evening. Outside of a few sprinkles across the Northern Mountains later today or early tonight, no measurable rainfall is expected this entire week.

In the wake of the frontal passage, another, larger area of high pressure will build Southeast across the Upper Great Lakes and extend our lengthy string of rainfree conditions through part or all of this upcoming weekend.

Locally dense large stream/river valley fog will occur across central PA and the Susq valley early today, while light wind and/or some mid and high clouds has limited much in the way of fog development (so far) across the Northern Mtns and Laurel Highlands where temp/dewpt spreads are between 1-6 deg F. Will keep the mention of patchy fog for areas outside of the Susq Mainstem and its West Branch Valley. Moderate variations will occur in daily and nocturnal temperatures as at least one weak, dry cold fronts moves SE across the Commonwealth during the upcoming 5-6 days. Wind direction/speed and cloud cover will also show some minor day- day variations.

The first of the aforementioned dry cold fronts will slip SE across the CWA late today/early tonight, but with only limited moisture to work with, just some periods of BKN, shallow strato cu and cirrus will occur with no rainfall expected beyond a few sprinkles over the Northern Mtns tonight.

Have kept the PoPs below 5% for Mon night and that's probably stretching it on the safe side.

After a brief shot of seasonably cool air Tuesday and Wed (directed mainly at the NE half of the state), a late week/Saturday rebound in temps (to well above normal values in the low-mid 60s across the Mtns and upper 60s to mid 70s in the Central and Southern Valleys) will follow. A second, weak and essentially dry frontal boundary could brush by across the Northern tier counties Friday afternoon and night.

The next chance for any measurable rain is Sunday afternoon/evening.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

A very strong inversion will result in fog and lower clouds in some of the valleys across east-central PA this morning, with vsby restrictions possible at any of the airfields, but highest chances at IPT, MDT, and LNS. Otherwise, the only clouds expected today are mid-high clouds from a weak trough aloft. Winds will mostly be from the west today at 5-10 kts, and shift more towards the north tonight as a dry cold front moves in. IFR or MVFR cigs are possible across the northern tier and Laurels (30-40 pct chc at BFD and JST) between 00z and 12z Tue. Outlook...

Tue...MVFR cigs possible in the north and west early, trending VFR.

Wed-Thu...VFR likely.

Fri...MVFR cigs possible mainly in the north and west due to a cold front.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.