textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Changed all FFWs to FLWs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Flooding should be abating

2) Variable sky conditions for the lunar eclipse tonight

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Flooding should be abating

RAP and some other meso models do continue to generate some weak convection and bring it into the flood warning areas for the next 3 hrs. We anticipate dropping the flood watch on time since we anticipate no new areas to receive flooding.

Latest RFC forecasts do nudge LNSP1 over flood stage and get HARP1 into caution. Will give another hour or two to observe the trends.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Variable sky conditions for the lunar eclipse tonight.

Viewing conditions for the lunar eclipse range from fair to poor tonight across central PA. It is on-going now per the view through a few breaks in our local cloud cover. The eclipse is taking place during August's full moon, commonly referred to as the Sturgeon Moon. It will also be the last full moon of the summer with the next full moon set to rise a few nights after the autumnal (Fall) equinox on September 22nd.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Biggest challenge this morning is how much fog will form and when it will start. Lots of rain over the eastern 3 terminals and dewpoints expected to remain high there make them good candidates, but so do the partially clearing skies over the other terminals. The river valleys are already filling in where it has cleared. So, we have medium confidence in IFR fog for BFD and UNV. JST and AOO are a bit tougher to call. We will dip both of them into IFR - JST more so for the low stratus and AOO for fog IPT is an equally tough call. But, some clearing is expected after the current SHRA and clouds lift to the NE. That should be enough to allow them to get some fog. But, will play it more of the typical low/FL003 stratus that they tend to gravitate toward.

Expect conditions to improve to VFR during the morning, as weak high pressure builds into the area. While lots of stratocu is expected due to the wet ground and cooler temps aloft, it should be VFR (>FL030 bases). Fog may return Fri night in the northern valleys, primarily. But, could be elsewhere depending on how much drying occurs today.

Outlook...

Sat-Mon...Mainly VFR. AM fog/restrictions poss.

Tue...Chc afternoon SHRA/TSRA.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.