textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Leaned cloudier & cooler with more shower activity today * Lowered max temps Sunday-Wednesday

KEY MESSAGES

1) Significant summerlike temperature surge ramps through early next week; highest temperatures of the year so far

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Significant summerlike temperature surge ramps through early next week; highest temperatures of the year so far

Scattered to numerous rain showers expected today beneath the anomalously deep/cold upper level low. Coldest day of the week (maybe until the Fall?) with max temps in the 45-60F range or 10 to 25 degrees below the historical average for mid May. NW wind will pick up through the day with 20-30 mph gusts adding to the late Spring chill. As the upper low pulls away, expect weather conditions to improve/dry out on Friday with daytime highs rebounding +10-20 degrees vs. Thursday.

After a cool start to May, a significant summerlike warmup is on the horizon for this weekend through early next week. This large scale pattern shift should deliver a rather sudden warm surge with max temps projected to reach well into the 80s and even lower 90s. Daily record highs may be challenged based on the current fcst Monday and Tuesday. Max temps were adjusted lower by a few degrees due to a known systematic bias correction issue identified in the NBM during the shoulder seasons.

There may be some potential Heatrisk considerations looming for early next week. This stems not only with the forecast high temperatures and increased humidity, but also from an acclimation perspective.

AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Winds across the eastern part of central PA have picked up some amd shifted to the west. This has resulted in most of the real low CIGS and fog being gone. Widespread SC clouds, feel and look more like fall than spring as of 6 AM here.

More information below.

Not much on radar in our area as of Midnight, but strong cooling aloft will result in the upper level low cutting off over our area toward sunrise.

This will result in CU development with showers shortly after the sun is up, along with lower CIGS today. The wrap around moisture around the upper level low will likely linger into early Friday morning, perhaps later into the day on Friday.

Conditions will improve by Saturday, as the low moves away from the area and high pressure builds into the area.

Outlook...

Fri...VFR likely.

Sat-Mon...VFR is likely much of the time, although brief restrictions are possible with isolated afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.

CLIMATE

Daily record max temperature for May 18-19:

5/18 5/19 Harrisburg 94 in 1962 95 in 1962 Williamsport 95 in 1962 96 in 1996 Altoona 91 in 1962/1996/2017 92 in 1996 Bradford 85 in 1962 85 in 1962 State College 92 in 1962 92 in 1934/1996

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.