textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Cold Weather Advisory issued 7PM this evening to 10AM Saturday

KEY MESSAGES

1) Prolonged hazardous cold threat continues into the weekend 2) Windy start to February 3) Accumulating snow possible Wednesday 2/4

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Prolonged hazardous cold threat continues into the weekend

The peak of the cold is approaching with record challenging minimum temperatures this morning and tonight/AM Saturday. We would not be surprised to see a few local observations (overnight minimum temperatures or wind chills) getting close to extreme cold criteria. Additional Cold Weather Advisories are probable for Saturday night. We are into the late innings of the prolonged hazardous cold event which will come to an end by Groundhog Day. Temperatures are forecast moderate a bit next week, but it will still be cold for this time of year with highs remaining below the freezing mark in most of CPA.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Windy start to February

As the storm pulls away from the coast on Sunday, the tightening pressure gradient will result in wind gusts of 25-35 mph across the area. A brisk and cold start to February.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Accumulating snow possible Wednesday 2/4

NBM/NBMv5 are signaling a broad area of light snow accumulation (1-3") on Wednesday Feb. 4th. GEFS/EPS and their respective AI ensembles show slight differences with the north/south QPF placement and timing/speed that can be expected with a developing low pressure system at this range. We will continue to track this system, but wanted to highlight the potential for minor winter weather/travel impacts around the middle of next week.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Similar to the previous 2 few mornings, a northwest flow carrying thin, cold stratocu clouds from limited moisture being picked up from the partially ice-covered Great Lakes.

Much of this cloud layer resides within the favorable thermal zones for dendritic snow growth, so flurries will occur at times.

The most likely locations for this and ocnl mvfr cigs and vsbys will be BFD and JST (where the base of the subsidence inversion climbs to between 6-7 kft agl tonight), but also possible at UNV and AOO. Further east, higher cloud bases will occur with less of a chance for this activity.

Otherwise, look for VFR conditions today through tonight.

Another chance of more thin clouds with flurries again tonight.

The upcoming weekend continues to look mainly dry, but expect winds to pick up on Sunday, as an intense coastal low deepens to the east of the Delmarva and Carolina Coast.

Like several Monday's so far this season, warm advection may result in some light snow later Monday into early Tue.

Outlook...

Sat...Periods of generally light lake effect and upslope snow showers remain possible across N/W PA, with restrictions possible; otherwise, chilly and breezy areawide.

Sun...Around a 10 to 20 percent chance of light snow at LNS early, otherwise dry. Becoming windy, esp. at MDT and LNS.

Mon...Increasing clouds, with a slight chance of light snow late across the north and west.

Tue...Perhaps some patchy light snow early at BFD and JST, but mainly dry.

CLIMATE

Daily record-challenging temperatures possible to close out January:

01/30 Daily Record Minimum Max temps MDT: 13 in 1934 IPT: 12 in 1934 AOO: 11 in 1966 BFD: -1 in 1977 STC: 12 in 1977

01/30 Daily Record Minimum temps MDT: 2 in 1934 IPT: -6 in 1948 AOO: -3 in 2019 BFD: -14 in 1965 STC: -10 in 1977

01/31 Daily Record Minimum temps MDT: 2 in 1948 IPT: -14 in 1948 AOO: -4 in 2019 BFD: -13 in 2019 STC: -9 in 1948

State College has a very good shot of tying the second longest run (7) of consecutive days with max temp <= 20F (1/25-1/31). The last time this occurred was post-Christmas 2017 (12-28-2017 to 01-03-2018). The longest run of 10 days occurred in January 1893 from the 11th-20th.

Top 3 coldest last week/7 days of January (mean temp 1/24-1/31) for State College

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046- 049>053-056>059-063>066. Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday for PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041- 042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.