textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Increased % chance of precip and snow amounts in the Laurel Highlands through Sunday

KEY MESSAGES

1) Breezy and colder weekend with rain and snow showers downwind of Lake Erie

2) Another extended stretch of dry and seasonal weather next week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Breezy and colder weekend with rain and snow showers downwind of Lake Erie

Ongoing cold air advection (CAA) downwind of the Lower Great Lakes via W/NW low level wind trajectories will result in a continued expansion of lake effect and terrain enhanced rain/snow streamers through tonight. We increased % chance and duration of POPs and added to snow amounts along Laurel Mtn where favorable Huron connection could bring 2-3" to the summits and ski resorts by Sunday night. Snow accumulations elsewhere over the higher terrain of the NW Allegheny Plateau will generally be less than an inch. Brisk NW winds 20-30 mph through the weekend will add a winter-like chill factor with daytime temps feeling no better than 30-40 degrees.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Another extended stretch of dry and seasonal weather next week

Lake effect rain and snow showers come to an end by Monday morning as an upper level ridge builds into the region. High pressure at the surface and aloft will provide dry conditions with mainly clear skies for next week along with moderating temperatures. Highs should reach the 55-65F range by the second half of next week or +10-15 degrees above the historical average for mid November. Light winds, low humidity, and abundant sunshine will be ideal for any outdoor activities. Whether raking leaves, putting out holiday decorations, or enjoying time outside, it will be an ideal stretch of weather.

AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Expect an increase in lake effect snow showers over northern and western PA through the morning as low-level winds gradually become more northwesterly. BFD and JST have the best chance of seeing IFR restrictions in snow, but the timing of visibility drops will be tough to pin down. A few snow showers could make it to AOO, UNV, and IPT as well, particularly this morning, but the probs are much lower than they are at BFD and JST. Snow likely mixes with or changes over to rain this afternoon before changing back to mainly snow overnight.

MVFR ceilings at BFD and JST will persist through the TAF period with at least some chance of lowering further to IFR. REFS probs of this occurring are highest at JST (around 70 percent). MVFR ceilings at AOO and UNV this morning likely become VFR again during the afternoon, but they should lower back to MVFR after sunset. Winds will be out of the northwest through the TAF period at 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots possible.

Outlook...

Sun...Low ceilings early, rising to VFR by the afternoon. Rain and snow showers linger through the morning.

Mon-Wed...VFR.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.