textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No significant changes

KEY MESSAGES

1) Frost/freeze conditions probable Monday & Tuesday night

2) Not much rain expected for the first 10 days of October

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Frost/freeze conditions probable Monday and Tuesday night

Decreasing clouds overnight as skies clear from NW to SE. Noticeably cooler/drier air already filtering into CPA with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s. This will set up a refreshingly crisp start to the 1st weekend of October with abundant sunshine and low humidity.

The coldest air of the early Autumn season is poised to arrive by early next week with frost/freeze conditions expected Monday night and Tuesday night over much of the forecast area. Locations to the northwest of I-81 have the highest odds for frost with min temps around the freezing mark in the northern tier. ------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Not much rain expected for the first 10 days of October

Clouds return on Sunday with some light rain most likely to reach locations along and particularly southeast of the I-81 corridor. Outside of this narrow window for light precip, expect a prolonged dry stretch to last through next week as a large area of Canadian high pressure dominates the pattern.

AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Winds take on a northwesterly/northerly flow pattern behind the front as drier air filters in. The current period of showers and restrictions should only last a few more hours and fairly quick improvements from west to east are expected primarily after 23Z Friday to 2Z Saturday.

Patchy fog is possible at KBFD and KIPT by daybreak on Saturday, but there is not enough confidence to prevail any restrictions there. Fog may be more likely at KBFD as clouds clear out quicker than at KIPT. An otherwise pleasant day is expected on Saturday with high clouds moving to the south of the area and mainly sunny skies across PA.

Outlook...

Sun...Restrictions possible as a weak low pressure system develops along the residual frontal boundary over the Mid- Atlantic. -RA possible, more so across southern and eastern PA.

Mon...Dry conditions with VFR prevailing. AM fog possible.

Tue-Wed...Dry conditions with VFR prevailing. AM fog/frost possible, especially across the Allegheny Plateau and Laurels.

CLIMATE

September 2026 precipitation rankings

IPT: 11th wettest (6.84") MDT: 26th wettest (4.72") AOO: 9th wettest (5.58") BFD: 10th wettest (4.85") JST: 3rd wettest (7.31") *since 2000 STC: 6th wettest (7.90")

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.