textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Lowered temperatures this aft. * Severe thunderstorm risk for Saturday

KEY MESSAGES

1) Extensive low clouds and fog and areas of showers keeping temperatures on the cool side this aft.

2) Periods of beneficial rainfall precede the first severe weather risk of 2026 into the first weekend of March.

3) Warmest temperatures since late Fall 2025 poised to arrive Saturday and early next week prior to modest to seasonable cool down into mid-month.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Extensive low clouds and fog and areas of showers keeping temperatures on the cool side this aft.

Fog not as dense as last evening, but low clouds, fog, and areas of of showers will hold down temperatures across the area this aft. Thus did lower high temperatures a few degrees. Warmest readings will be across the far west.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Periods of beneficial rainfall precede the first severe weather risk of 2026 into the first weekend of March

On the heels of one of the driest winters on record, periods of beneficial rain (primarily thought tonight, but also on Saturday) are expected to bring some relief/marginal improvement particularly to D1-D2 drought conditions in central and eastern PA. Forecast rainfall totals over the next 24hrs ending 7AM Friday will range between 0.75-1.50 inches.

The first marginal and slight risk convective outlooks of 2026 including a portion of CPA have been issued by SPC for Saturday March 7th. The greatest tstm wind-damage threat will likely be in the late afternoon in the warm sector across western PA as a low-level jet consolidates and strengthens across the upper Ohio Valley. Increasingly limited instability with eastern extent should reduce the threat into the eastern portion of the Commonwealth.

Frontal showers crossing CPA into Saturday night should exit the CWA by Sunday morning - followed by 2-day stretch of dry wx lasting at least through next Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Warmest temperatures since late Fall 2025 poised to arrive Saturday and early next week prior to modest to seasonable cool down into mid-month

The infamous, temp-busting cold air damming pattern (complete with plenty of low clouds and periods of rain/drizzle) Thu & Fri will delay the arrival of April to May-like temps until Saturday with a resurgence of mid Spring warmth projected to ramp up next Monday into Wednesday. Temps will take a modest dip on Sunday behind a cold front with a more pronounced/relative (reverting closer to climo) cool down forecast by the end of next week.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Rounds of light to moderate rain are moving across the area this evening, with some sporadic lightning occurring with these storms over southern/central Bedford County at 00z. The potential for isolated thunderstorms embedded within this rain will continue through 05z, particularly across KMDT and KLNS as the steadier rain moves through between 01z and 03z, though uncertainty in the likelihood of lightning based on decreasing instability values precludes the inclusion of prevailing TSRA.

Otherwise, expect another night of IFR conditions at all TAF sites as drizzle and fog return along with low ceilings. Visibility improvements are possible by the early afternoon on Friday, though latest LAMP and HRRR guidance suggests lower cloud ceilings and reduced visibilities may linger on the cool side of a backdoor cold front across portions of east/central Pennsylvania, with the LAMP keying in on KMDT and KLNS at this time.

Outlook...

Fri...Stationary front across the region. Restrictions possible, especially across central/eastern airfields.

Sat...Restrictions remain possible, especially in the north and east. VFR most likely from KJST south and west, where winds could get gusty in the warm sector. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms likely with cold FROPA.

Sun...Trending towards VFR.

Mon...Restrictions possible as low-level moisture increases.

Tue.. Restrictions possible in the morning due to low-level moisture.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for PAZ058.