textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No significant changes

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain-free conditions will persist through the end of October

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain-free conditions will persist through the end of October

A large area of high pressure will remain in place over the Northeast U.S. and Central Appalachians. Expect mainly clear skies and rain-free conditions right through the upcoming week.

Fog is a tough call for tonight. HREF and REFS probabilities are highest around LNS and over the NW mtns. However, clouds moving in from the NW could keep the NW from getting too foggy. The best bets are the same places as have been the last few nights (W Br Susq and Susq above Harrisburg, and Lake Raystown). Have mentioned patchy fog in many places due to the uncertainty, but kept dense fog mention to IPT/LNS.

Moderate variations will occur in daily and nocturnal temperatures as at least one weak, dry cold fronts move SE across the Commonwealth during the upcoming 5-6 days. Wind direction/speed and cloud cover will also show some minor day- day variations.

The first of the aforementioned dry cold fronts will slip SE across the CWA Monday night into early Tuesday, but with only limited moisture to work with, just some periods of BKN, shallow strato cu and cirrus will occur with no rainfall expected beyond a few sprinkles over the Northern Mtns Monday night. Have kept the PoPs below mentionable for now on Mon night. This front seems like it may slide in before it makes low clouds in the nrn tier.

After a brief shot of seasonably cool air Tuesday and Wed (directed mainly at the NE half of the state), a late week/Saturday rebound in temps (to well above normal values in the low-mid 60s across the Mtns and upper 60s to mid 70s in the Central and Southern Valleys) will follow. A second, weak frontal boundary could brush by across the Northern tier counties Friday afternoon and night. New Day8 is wet (40-60 PoPs) as the pattern shifts to a more-zonal flow for the east. GFS is still dry, though. Models/members are not in as good of agreement from then onward.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

High pressure over the area will result in clear skies and light winds today into Sunday and predominantly VFR conditions well into the upcoming week. Extent of fog formation Monday morning is still uncertain, but calm winds and plentiful radiational cooling should aid in patchy fog formation across PA. The greatest chances for this are at IPT, MDT, and LNS looking at 12Z model guidance. LNS was focused in on the strongest for IFR visibility by model guidance so trends will be watched. Winds will be out of the west-northwest tomorrow with VFR conditions prevailing.

Outlook...

Mon-Fri...VFR prevailing conditions.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.