textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No significant changes

KEY MESSAGES

1) Extended stretch of dry and seasonable weather this week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Extended stretch of dry and seasonable weather this week

Persistent high pressure over the Northeast U.S. will provide an extended stretch of dry and seasonable weather this week. The latest model data shows the dry spell continuing into the final week of October. This rain-free pattern will feature a string of sunny and seasonably warm afternoons with low humidity followed by clear and chilly moonlit nights with areas of frost.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Surface high pressure will bring good VFR and light winds to the area for another forecast day. Overnight, favorable conditions for radiational cooling will again lead to widespread frost and patchy valley fog into Monday morning. Recent hi-res model guidance continues to paint the highest probabilities for lower visibilities along the Susquehanna River and points eastward with a secondary corridor across north-central Pennsylvania where fog formation is already underway this morning. Probability of IFR or lower restrictions at IPT between 10-13Z Monday stands at 30% with lower probabilities near MDT/LNS; thus, have left all mentions out at the juncture due to low confidence. By Monday afternoon, N to NE winds will increase to 5-10 kts in the Lower Susquehanna Valley in response to a coastal storm east of Cape Hatteras. The same storm system may also produce thin high clouds over eastern airfields later Monday; however, recent model guidance does outline clouds might stay just east of the region.

Tue...Restrictions are possible in the north and west in the AM due to fog and low stratus. Breezy with N to NE winds gusting to 20 kts.

Wed-Fri...Patchy AM fog and frost possible in the north and west; otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ059-066. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ065.