textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Added slight chance of a thunderstorm Wednesday PM * Added smoke Wednesday

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot temperatures and high humidity will increase the risk of heat impacts through midweek

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Hot temperatures and high humidity will increase the risk of heat impacts through midweek

No change to heat headlines for today and Wednesday. Max heat indices peak 100-105 range Wednesday afternoon. BL mixing and noticeable WNW breeze favored lowering dewpoints during the afternoons Tue-Thu. Some daily record high max temps may be challenged Tue-Wed. This hot spell will be shorter and less intense than earlier this month.

Hires model and ensemble guidance supports addition of smoke from upstream wildfires to the fcst with marginal visibility restrictions possible mainly along and to the north of I-80 Wednesday. These data also support a 15-20% chance of a stray thunderstorm Wednesday afternoon/evening.

As the short duration heat pattern breaks down, rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely to impact CPA this weekend. Temperatures will return to historical averages for mid to late July into next week.

AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Prevailing VFR with little to no cloud cover & rain-free conditions are expected through much of the upcoming week as high pressure stretches across the Mid-Atlantic. Each night we can expect fog formation in the deepest valleys across northwest PA, but impacts at BFD are not anticipated. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail.

Southerly winds of around 10 kts will ramp up this afternoon across the region as some high clouds move overhead. A 35 to 40kt low-level wind max will move across northeast PA late tonight, but sufficient surface winds should preclude any wind shear concerns at this time.

Outlook...

Wed-Thu...Mainly VFR, with areas of late night/AM fog. Some reduced visibility possible from smoke.

Fri-Sun...Chance of showers and t-storms.

CLIMATE

Daily record high max temperatures July 14-16 _____________________________________________ SITE | 7/14 | 7/15 | 7/16 | --------------------------------------------- MDT | 101/1954 | 99/2024 | 104/1988 | --------------------------------------------- IPT | 102/1936| 103/1995| 103/1988 | --------------------------------------------- AOO | 95/1954 | 98/1995 | 100/1988 | --------------------------------------------- BFD | 89/1979 | 88/2013 | 97/1988 | --------------------------------------------- STCP1 | 93/1988 | 97/1887 | 102/1988 | ---------------------------------------------

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ004>006-010>012-018-037-041-042. Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ019-026>028-045-046-049>053-056>059. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for PAZ035-036- 063>066.