textproduct: State College

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Little in the way of notable changes to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temps rebound nicely Sun while dewpoints barely keep up. Temps continue to rise, with a big jump for Tue.

2) A cold front moves through later in the week, stalls over VA/NC. High PoPs for days 4-7.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Temps rebound nicely Sun while dewpoints barely keep up. Temps continue to rise, with a big jump for Tue.

High pressure moves off to the southeast tonight. Wind dies down tonight, and turns southerly for Sunday, helping push max temps up significantly (12-20F biggest gains in the NW) vs Sat. The drying wind and already-low dewpoints will nudge us to consider fire weather products. However, fine fuels are still not favorable enough to warrant an SPS and certainly not a RFW at this time. If the fuel moistures do drop a bit more, we may want to issue an SPS to highlight those concerns for Sunday.

Rain/showers are possible over the nrn half of the state on late Monday and Monday night as a warm front pushes through. Temps will jump significantly again on Tues (10-15F over Mon) with a sustained SWrly wind brining in the heat. Maxes could near 80F in the S and 70F in the nrn mtns. -------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front moves through later in the week, stalls over VA/NC. High PoPs for days 4-7.

Sfc low forms in the midwest and passes to our N Tues night, dragging a cold front down from the NW into PA on Wed. The front then stalls over VA/NC and turns back around as a warm front. The ensuing pattern of a deep flow of Gulf moisture will keep PoPs high into next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions prevail through the entirety of the TAF period with high pressure in control. A deck of mid and high level clouds will overspread the region tonight and remain overhead through Sunday. Winds shift around to southerly late tonight into Sunday with gusts perhaps 15-20kts during the afternoon. Outlook...

Mon...SCT -SHRA with restrictions poss, mainly W.

Tue...Chance -SHRA, slight chc TSRA west.

Wed...NMRS SHRA with TSRA poss. Cold fropa.

Thu...Sct to numerous SHRA, wintry mix possible north.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

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