textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased chance for isolated showers and thundershowers this afternoon and Sat afternoon, especially across the north.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated afternoon showers and a couple thundershowers Fri and Sat, otherwise breezy but pleasant with highs just a few degrees below normal.

2) After a dry Sunday, more widespread rain and a chance of a thunderstorms return to the forecast for Sunday night and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Isolated afternoon showers and a couple thundershowers Fri and Sat, otherwise breezy but pleasant with highs just a few degrees below normal.

Today and Sat will feature a moderately tight llvl pressure gradient resulting in breezy conditions with frequent NW wind gusts in the 20-30 mph range.

With several weak troughs aloft moving southeast in the deep NW flow, expect the possibility of a few brief showers, mainly across the Northern Mtns today and with a bit more southeastward extend on Saturday. Midlevel lapse rates are steep enough for a few rumbles of thunder in the tallest showers (higher risk as you go north). Temps today and Saturday will to be just a few degrees below normal with plenty of diurnal cumulus.

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Key Message 2: After a dry Sunday, more widespread rain and a chance of a thunderstorms return to the forecast for Sunday night and Monday.

Winds will diminish Saturday night and skies will range from mostly clear to partly cloudy. If skies are clear enough, there could be some patchy fog by Sunday morning. After a slightly warmer day on Sunday with lighter wind and a fair amount of sunshine, more widespread rainfall is likely Sunday night and Monday as a wave of low pressure lifts NE from the Lower Ohio River Valley.

Latest model consensus is for between 0.75 and 1.50" of rain with this system. However, given the relatively small size of this disturbance, we'll have to keep a close eye on bust potential if the track changes and brings the heaviest rain elsewhere.

With high pressure building in behind the departing low, Tue and Wed are likely to be on the dry side. Longer range guidance points towards a potentially active end to the week as multiple disturbances ride along a baroclinic zone bisecting the Mid Atlantic.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Scattered to broken clouds remain over most of the area for the beginning of this evening, and winds remain elevated with gusts up to 25kts being observed at most TAF sites. VFR should be the dominating flight conditions with very little in the way of low level moisture to support low ceilings or fog. Calmer winds will set in overnight with mostly clear conditions anticipated under higher pressure.

VFR prevails tomorrow as well with scattered fair weather cumulus, in the 3-6kft, range expected in terms of cloud cover. Model guidance is hinting at some shower possibilities for some of the western TAF sites with probabilities around or below 30%. Like anything today, these aren't anticipated to bring with them any prevailing restrictions given their sporadic nature. A PROB30 group has been introduced at KBFD, but probabilities elsewhere remain less than 20% for any precipitation to occur.

Outlook...

Sun...Showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon/evening across the far west, and around or shortly after Midnight over the Central and Eastern portions of the state.

Mon...Restrictions possible with a few periods of rain/or showers and thunderstorms.

Tue...Lower chances of showers, mainly VFR.

Wed...Mainly VFR, watching for precipitation chances though in the evening/overnight

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.