textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Minor adjustments to temps tonight and dewpoints midweek * Minor adjustments to POPs based on latest CAMs

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warmer and more humid conditions return into midweek with highest odds for rain Thursday

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Warmer and more humid conditions return into midweek with highest odds for rain Thursday

Latest CAMs support a modest increase in POPs across the northern tier of CPA late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Temps, dewpoints, and precip probs trend higher on Wednesday and peak on Thursday. A weak frontal boundary sinking southeast from the Lower Great Lakes will interact with the warmer/higher dewpoint air and trigger scattered showers and a few t-storms through midweek. At this time, severe storms are not expected with only a limited/marginal risk of locally heavy rainfall across the western Alleghenies.

Confidence in a dry end to the week has increased as slightly cooler and drier/lower pwat air arrives from the north behind the aforementioned front. Precip trends from later in the weekend into early next week are wetter on the margin for this cycle and will need to monitor for potential +RA signal.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Generally clear skies continue this evening with light winds. Do not expect much in the way of reduced visibilites early Wednesday morning as temperature / dewpoint spread will be much larger than this morning on the heels of warm advection.

This warm advection (higher dewpoints) may touch off -SHRA later tonight near the NY border. Hig resolution models waffle a bit on this outcome so only mentioned a short period at KBFD later.

With the increase in humidity on Wednesday afternoon, and surface temperatures making their way into the low to mid 80s, can not rule out a later day -SHRA or -TSRA - especially north. Confidence to place any ceiling or visibility restriction in at the far end of the forecast package is minimal (<15%) at this time, but I do expect precip to be included in the next forecast package.

Outlook...

Thu-Sun...Increasing SHRA/TSRA chances, mainly on Thu, restrictions possible.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.