textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories issued for all of central PA from 11pm tonight through 9am Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread frost and freeze expected tonight.

2) Temperatures trend warmer for the beginning of next week ahead of a system that will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Widespread frost and freeze expected tonight.

Clearing skies and decreasing winds will allow for temperatures to fall into the 20s and 30s tonight, leading to widespread frost and freeze concerns. Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings have been issued for all of central Pennsylvania and are in effect from 11 pm tonight through 9 am Sunday. There was some question about whether or not winds would stay elevated enough over parts of southeast PA to preclude frost development, but it appears there will be enough potential for frost to include them in the advisory as well.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Temperatures trend warmer for the beginning of next week ahead of a system that will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday.

A warming trend begins tomorrow that continues through the middle of the week. Expect to see high temperatures in the 60s and 70s on Monday and Tuesday as southwesterly flow develops out ahead of the next frontal system that will move through the region. A few locations across south-central PA may even approach 80 degrees Tuesday afternoon. Scattered showers will be possible on Tuesday,especially across northwest PA, but the better chance for showers and thunderstorms looks to be on Wednesday and Thursday ahead of a slow moving cold front. Temperatures once again turn cooler behind this front, with potential frost/freeze concerns developing once again to end the week.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

00z update... VFR/unrestricted conditions are primarily expected through the day on Sunday, as the air mass trends drier over time across PA. The only potential exception is across the Allegheny mountains this evening, with patchy lower clouds and spotty light showers still in place. These lower conditions would mainly impact KJST, and only through 02-03z.

Surface winds become light (3-5 kt or less) overnight and early Sunday, then pick up and become gusty Sunday afternoon out of the W-NW (gusting around 20 kt at times).

Outlook...

Mon...Scattered -SHRA develop across wrn PA, and some thunder is possible by Monday PM.

Tue...SHRA/TSRA becomes more widespread from NW to SE; restrictions possible.

Wed...SHRA/TSRA continue; restrictions likely.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033-034-037-041-042-045-046. Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ035-036-049>053-056>059-063>066.