textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Drizzle, low clouds and fog on the ridges to slowly give way to clearing later today.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Clearing later today.

2) A colder end to what has been one of the warmest April's to date; much below normal temperatures possible to start May along with renewed frost/freeze risk.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Clearing later today.

Extensive low clouds over the area early this morning will take a while to burn off. Drier air expected to work into the region today will aid in clearing later this afternoon. Temperatures will run below normal, before being closer to normal on Monday. Monday likely to be the warmest day of the week.

Monday will also feature a good deal of sunshine. As noted below, April will end on a cool note. Also this week will feature several chances to be on the wet side.

May has a track record the last several years to feature some rather cold conditions.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: A colder end to what has been one of the warmest April's to date; much below normal temperatures to start May along with renewed frost/freeze risk.

Most sites are tracking top 5-10 warmest April-to-date. The much above normal to near-record warmth over the past 3-4 weeks is expected to fizzle out through month-end with increasing confidence in below normal temperatures into early May. This late Spring setback will also feature a renewed frost/freeze risk for a growing season that started weeks in advance of the climatological/historical average.

As noted above, Monday will feature the best day to dry out for outside work, and temperatures near normal.

More wet conditions for later Tuesday into Wednesday, as the next frontal system moves in. Things dry out for later in the week, but temperatures will be well below normal. Frost and even freeze potential for the north if not central zones.

Models show signal well out into longer time frames to cutoff an upper level low over or nearby the lower Great Lakes area, keeping the colder than normal temperatures over the area.

This would also support frequent chances for rain, especially across the east and south now.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

A low pressure system moving across the Mid-Atlantic will maintain IFR ceilings/visibilities across the region through 12Z Sunday, with only drizzle remaining for the rest of this evening. Pockets of LIFR driven by low clouds are expected to stick around the Northern Tier (KBFD) and along the Allegheny Mountains (KJST/KAOO/KUNV) through the early morning.

After 12Z Sunday, as the low pressure moves farther offshore, high pressure over Southern Canada will nose into the region and shift winds to be more northwesterly, ultimately bringing in drier continental air from the northwest. Regionwide improvements to MVFR are expected between 15Z-17Z Sunday, with improvements to VFR being likely (80% chance) after 18Z-19Z Sunday.

Outlook...

Mon...VFR likely.

Tue...VFR early, with restrictions west to east as ceilings lower and showers move in.

Wed...Restrictions likely with rain expected regionwide.

Thu...VFR/MVFR favored as rain ends west to east.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.