textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minor adjustments to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) After predominantly dry weather for today and the weekend, periods of rain and a chance of a thunderstorms returns to the forecast for Sunday night and Monday.

DISCUSSION

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Key Message 1: After predominantly dry weather for today and the weekend, periods of rain and a chance of a thunderstorms returns to the forecast for Sunday night and Monday.

Thick, layered, mainly mid and high clouds associated with moisture from the remnants of TC Arthur will meet up with a slow-moving cold front just to the south of PA through this morning and bring the chance of a bit of light rain with up to a few hundredths of an inch of rain possible in our far SE CWA - near and to the South of KLNS.

Today and Sat will feature a moderately tight llvl pressure gradient breezy conditions with frequent NW wind gusts in the 20-30 mph range.

With several weak troughs aloft moving southeast in the deep NW flow, expect the possibility of a few brief showers, mainly across the Northern Mtns. Temps today and Saturday will to be just a few degrees below normal with plenty of diurnal cumulus, but dry low levels should prevent anything more than a stray sprinkle from making it to the ground across the Central Ridge and Valley Region of the state.

After a slightly warmer day with lighter wind and a fair amount of sunshine, more widespread rainfall is probably Sunday night and Monday as a wave of low pressure lifts NE from the Lower Ohio River Valley.

Latest model consensus is for between 0.75 and 1.50" of rain with this system However, given the relatively small size of this disturbance, we'll have to keep a close eye on bust potential if the track changes and brings the heaviest rain elsewhere.

It will become drier for Tuesday and Wed.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

NW winds and breezy conditions will yield VFR conditions for most or all of the upcoming, long Holiday weekend.

The NW winds will increase both Friday and Saturday (after 12Z) with day time heating and deep vertical mixing to between 6000-9000 ft above ground, which will aid the enhancement of low level winds. Wind won't be as strong as it was on Thursday, but still anticipate gusts of 25-30kts this afternoon.

Outside of the winds, conditions will be mainly dry with high confidence (~95%). An isolated rain shower is possible near MDT and LNS until around 14Z today.

Probabilities remain less than 20% for any precipitation to occur. BFD could see a brief period of MVFR ceilings through the mid morning hours today; however, everywhere else should remain VFR through the 06Z TAF period.

Outlook...

Sat...VFR with a moderately gusty NW breeze and no significant weather/precip.

Sun...Showers and thunderstorms developing in the afternoon/evening across the far west, and around or shortly after Midnight over the Central and Eastern portions of the state.

Mon...Restrictions possible with a few periods of rain/or showers and thunderstorms.

Tue...Lower chances of showers, mainly VFR.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.