textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Increased wind gusts and POPs/QPF this weekend * Stratified wx to rain vs. rain showers * Lowered maxT Sunday

KEY MESSAGES

1) Nor'easter will bring gusty winds and periods of rain for the first weekend of Fall

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Nor'easter will bring gusty winds and periods of rain for the first weekend of Fall

Sensible weather conditions continue to trend incrementally bearish on the margin particularly later Saturday through Sunday as wind and rain impacts extend westward from powerful Nor'easter tracking toward the NJ/Long Island/southern New England coast. Latest model guidance favored a minor increase in wind gusts and westward expansion of higher POPs/QPF to the Allegheny Front. Locations throughout the Susquehanna Valley will see the most persistent rain and strongest wind gusts up to 40 mph. We lowered max temps a few degrees Sunday due to the combination of clouds, wind, and rain. We can't rule out some localized/minor impacts (sporadic power outages and tree damage) due to the wind gusts especially across the eastern portions of the CWA.

It's still hard to say how far west the precip will reach with the western Alleghenies most likely to continue an extended dry stretch through much of next week. As the nor'easter lifts to the northeast, conditions should steadily improve by the middle of next week with temperatures poised to rebound above the historical average for the end of September.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Prevailing VFR flight cats through the night with increasing high to mid level clouds from southeast to northwest. Localized vis restrictions may occur in valley fog later tonight, but the probability of prolonged restrictions at any TAF sites is too low to include in the forecast. LLWS is expected throughout the ZNY airspace tonight as a 45-60 knot low level jet moves into the area on the west-side of a powerful Nor'easter. Surface winds increase to 10-15 knots out of the northeast after sunrise and gusts of 25-30 knots are expected for much of the day. The highest gusts will occur at southeastern sites. Light rain will approach MDT and LNS during the afternoon, but the rest of the region should remain dry into the the first part of Saturday night.

A strong low-level jet will remain in place over much of Central PA through much of Saturday night, but the strongest winds may remain just above 2000 feet for most locations. Because of this, LLWS has been kept out of most of the TAFs. After a break in the rain during the evening, another round of steady rain moves in from the east as the surface low moves closer to the region. The biggest uncertainty in the forecast is just how far west this rain makes it during the day on Sunday. Ceilings should gradually drop to MVFR at MDT and LNS as the steadier rain moves in.

Outlook...

Mon-Wed...Improving conditions trending VFR by midweek.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.