textproduct: State College
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WHAT HAS CHANGED
Decreased chc for SHRA/TSRA late this evening.
KEY MESSAGES
1) More storms expected for central PA Sunday afternoon and evening.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: More storms expected for central PA Sunday afternoon and evening.
A complex forecast for Sunday, with a strong upper level jet moving across the area Sunday evening. Higher dewpoints are advected into the area. This would support strong storms. At the same time, the jet lags the cold front a bit, so this could limit storm formation. Models hint at the southeast part of the CWA might get the most QPF, an area that has been dry so far this year.
Arrival looks mid-late aftn NW with the storms crossing the CWA and exiting to the SE by 10-11PM. Some storms are possible out ahead of the front associated with the upper dynamics. The next visit from organized storms will likely not be until at least mid week (Thurs).
AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A west to northwest flow of drier air will keep dry weather and VFR conditions across the area today into Sunday morning.
Still some hints on radar at 11 PM of maybe a few lower clds and even a drop of rain across the southwest, which could work into JST over the next few hours. Otherwise today will feature VFR conditions.
A cold front dropping southeast late Sunday will bring the potential for strong storms to the area later Sunday.
With a large upper level low to the north next week, there will be a tedency for weak cold fronts and troughs to result in showers and storms at times. Timing will be tricky with this type of flow pattern.
Outlook...
Sunday...VFR favored early, with restrictions possible as FROPA brings chance of -SHRA/-TSRA later in the day.
Monday...Mostly VFR with isolated -SHRA possible.
Tuesday...Mostly VFR with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA possible.
Wednesday...-SHRA/-TSRA chances increase ahead of low pressure system.
CLIMATE
The high temperature on Friday at Harrisburg reached 94 degrees. This broke the old record of 92 degrees, last set in 2017.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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