textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Minor timing modifications to the periods of rain today that will be moving Westward across the Susquehanna Valley and Central Mountains of PA.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Nor'easter filling as its center pushes inland meanders across Southern New Jersey late today and tonight.

2) Tranquil conditions expected for the first half of next week with a slight warming trend emerging across the region.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Nor'easter filling as its center pushes inland meanders across Southern New Jersey late today and tonight.

The center of the nor-easter is located between KACY and KMIV this afternoon and the low is expected to push just a bot more to the southwest early tonight before becoming nearly stationary over Southern NJ or Delaware Bay later tonight. The center of the low will drift slowly offshore again Monday and track south of and parallel with the southern shore of Long Island.

One distinct vort lobe will bring several hours more of mainly light rain across the region to the west of a KHGR to KIPT and KELM line late this afternoon through early tonight.

A second area of rain associated with mid level FGEN forcing just NW of the low center will move back into the Western Poconos and Susq Valley this evening and fall off and on as light rain or drizzle overnight with another 0.10 to 0.25 of an inch expected.

Northerly wind gusts in the mid to upper 20 kt range will persist across the Susq Valley into the early evening hours before slipping back into the teens.

Conditions will improve (with respect to less rain) tonight and Monday morning. By noon Monday, there should only be isolated --SHRA over the NE and the wind will not be notable. Temps rise slightly from Sun, but will still be cooler than normal.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Tranquil conditions expected for the first half of next week with a slight warming trend emerging across the region.

Dry conditions will continue into Thursday as the front anticipated to be arriving late Wed/night will be delayed for a day or so. It will pick up some moisture from the remnants of Polo. But, that precip probably stays to our W until Thursday. All model guidance trends towards a warming trend in this timeframe, with above-average temperatures prevailing area wide for the balance of the week. Someone may hit 80F before Friday. Details on timing and intensity of rainfall are not easy to pin down at this range and with the upcoming pattern. So, we'll just make a gradual increase in PoPs Fri-Sat-Sun.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

A few nearly north/south bands of light to briefly moderate rain will continue to push wwd across the Central and Western Mtns of PA late today and tonight with another area of rain drifting into the Western Poconos and Lower/Mid Susq Valley for late today and tonight. Deteriorating conditions will occur with MVFR transitioning into IFR after duof The wind and gusts will start to decrease a bit through the daylight hours, and will do so even more tonight. The loosening pressure gradient will mean that the threat for nearing wind advisory criteria over any of our counties is all but over. We did knock a couple degs off the dewpoints for today as the NBM has been consistently too high over the past 2-3 days. Despite this, the bands of rain should go farther to the west than Sat - so we bumped the PoPs to categorical for most of the CWA east of route 219. The rain may not quite reach the ground in the western layer of zones, but some hit the ground locally despite the lower-than-forecast dewpoints on Sat. Cool air is locked in, and maxes will be only 55-65F - coolest NE.

QPF is looking heaviest just about where it was on Saturday - the Lower Susq. Someone might pick up another inch, but most likely not. Even so, the FFG is high enough to not have flooding even be a thought. sk tonight and even some periods of LIFR late tonight into the mid morning hours Monday.

Some improvement will occur later Monday morning/afternoon, but conditions will still stay in the MVFR to ocnl IFR range.

Additionally, the periods of rain will be quite efficient and could lead to VSBYS dropping below 3 statute miles (categorical IFR).

The location of the Nor'easter will also lead to wind gusts exceeding 20-25kts across mainly the Susq Valley and points east.

Outlook...

Mon...MVFR restrictions persist in with lingering scattered showers.

Tue...Gradual improvement, MVFR lingers at higher elevations (BFD, JST) in a typical northwest flow pattern.

Wed...Sunshine returns, mostly VFR.

Thu...Chance of showers late PM, some restrictions possible.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.