textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Forecast is high-confidence in near term

KEY MESSAGES

1) Clear skies and light wind with Freeze headlines tonight and again for Wednesday night

2) Warming trend ramps up into late week with low humidity and little to no precipitation forecast through the upcoming weekend

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Clear skies and light wind with Freeze headlines tonight and again for Wednesday night

The sky is entirely clear over the CWA at 10 PM EDT. All is going as planned. Only a few high clouds will try to move in from the west overnight.

Prev... With high pressure moving overhead, winds will quickly subside and veer to the north tonight. Favorable radiational cooling under the strong anticyclone with PWATS less than 0.4 of an inch across the entire CWA will help foster one of/if not the coldest nights until Fall with min temps ranging from the mid teens to mid 20s.

Freeze warnings are in effect for late tonight through the mid morning hours Wed for the recently activated/early onset growing season counties based on a very warm March-early April period and Growing Degree Days (GDD) tracking indices.

A Freeze Watch remains in effect for Wednesday night with fcst min temps closer to/but still below the freezing mark.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Warming trend ramps up into late week with low humidity and little to no precipitation forecast through the upcoming weekend

An increasingly milder southwest flow will transport warmer air back into CPA by the second half of the week through the upcoming weekend.

A pair of weak cold fronts brings minimal rain chances across the bulk of the CWA, except for the NW Mtns late Thursday through late Friday, where its close proximity to the anticipated slow-moving boundary will bring locally over 0.25 of an inch of QPF from several rounds of showers. Mainly dry conditions expected most of the time elsewhere.

The overall lack of rain won't help improve drought conditions across the southeast part of the forecast area and may also bring an uptick in wildfire risk.

AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Skies have cleared across all of central PA prior to 00z Wed. Winds are generally light from the NW with a few gusty spots like IPT and ZER. Gusts are expected to subside by 01-03z with winds going calm in most locations as high pressure moves overhead. After 06Z, the LAMP indicates a low chance (20%) of visibility restrictions at KBFD, with clear skies and diminishing winds hinting at favorable conditions for radiational fog. At this time, vsbys were kept at P6SM during this timeframe given the low probabilities and large T/Td spreads, but this possibility will continue to be monitored. Some vicinity valley fog is a more likely outcome with any vsby restrictions at BFD being brief.

By 15z Wed, the axis of high pressure will move to our east, resulting in winds veering around to the N and then E/SE. Winds will remain on the light side in the east, but some gusts to 20 kts will be possible in the afternoon across the Laurel Highlands and NW mountains. Skies are expected to remain clear.

Outlook...

Wed-Thu...VFR.

Fri...Chance of -SHRA especially in the N/W.

Sat...Restrictions poss early, then trending VFR.

Sun...Chance of afternoon -SHRA in the NW.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Wednesday for PAZ026>028-035-036- 049>052-056-057-059-063>066. Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for PAZ026>028-035-036-049>052-056-057-059-063>066.