textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Trimmed afternoon dewpoints/RH Wednesday & Thursday * Trending drier into next week

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry spell through late week precedes brief return of midsummer warmth and increasing rain risk for the first weekend of June 2) Still some uncertainty early next week, but trending drier

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry spell through late week precedes brief return of midsummer warmth and increasing rain risk for the first weekend of June

The ongoing stretch of dry weather continues through Friday. Rising temperatures with moderate humidity levels remain on track for late week with midsummer warmth returning to CPA into the first weekend of June. Max temps climb +5-10F above climo into the 75-85F range on Thursday followed by widespread 80-90F readings Friday and Saturday.

A wavy and slow moving cold front sliding southeastward from the Great Lakes will bring an increasing chance for showers/t-storms with locally heavy downpours Saturday into Sunday (max POPs on Sunday).

KEY MESSAGE 2: Still some uncertainty early next week, but trending drier

Most guidance has trended drier on the margin for early next week with elevated uncertainty in the precip pattern. If the dry trend continues, it would be driven by high pressure nudging south from Canada behind a cold front. Whether it is rainy or dry, confidence is high that temperatures cool off Sunday through Tuesday (either from clouds/rain or a post-cold frontal airmass).

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Broad high pressure moving across the Ohio Valley & Mid- Atlantic through the end of the TAF period will maintain VFR conditions with no significant weather expected.

Mainly clear skies (SKC-FEW250) tonight will give way to abundant sunshine filtered by high clouds (SCT-BKN250) by midday Thursday. Winds will sustain at 5-10 kts and trend westerly as the high pressure center slides south of Pennsylvania. A few diurnal fair-weather cumulus cannot be ruled out, though dry low-level air (afternoon RH values around 20-30% in the afternoon) will keep low clouds sparse & relatively high-based (SBLCLs up to 10 kft).

Outlook...

Thu-Fri...VFR with no significant weather expected. Any nighttime fog will be limited. Winds will begin to take on a greater westerly component later Thursday into Friday.

Sat...VFR conds favored, with brief restrictions possible in late-day -SHRA.

Sat night-Sun...Restrictions possible in more widespread SHRA/TSRA.

Mon...VFR favored with restrictions possible from post-frontal stratocu or lingering -SHRA.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.