textproduct: State College
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WHAT HAS CHANGED
* Slight increase in cloud cover across the east through the early overnight.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Scattered mainly light rain showers remain possible across the east overnight, as low pressure moves slowly along the southern New England coast. Otherwise, expect a drying trend to wrap up the week.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered mainly light rain showers remain possible across the east overnight, as low pressure moves slowly along the southern New England coast.
A few rain showers remain possible across eastern Pennsylvania overnight, with clearing skies farther to the west. Expect more of the same for Thursday, with considerable cloudiness and scattered rain showers across eastern Pennsylvania and partly sunny skies across the west. Temperatures will be seasonable overnight into Thursday. Expect drier conditions for Friday and Saturday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Saturday night into Sunday ahead of an approaching shortwave, but there are still timing differences regarding this feature.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
The cloud deck over the region continues to persist as the upper low moves over southern New England. VFR is expected to prevail through daybreak for all terminals. Fog potential overall looks fairly minimal. After 12Z Thursday, HREF model guidance outlines an increasing 3000-5000ft AGL cloud deck that will bring some lower end (< 30%) potential for MVFR ceilings primarily across eastern airfields (IPT, MDT, LNS), but predominantly VFR conds is the more likely outcome. Low clouds will begin to dissipate tonight as drier air moves in and the upper low moves to the east.
Outlook...
Fri...Patchy AM fog possible, otherwise mainly VFR.
Sat...Mainly VFR early with increasing chances of SHRA/TSRA later in the evening hours. Restrictions possible.
Sun...More widespread SHRA with PM TSRA possible, increased chances of restrictions in heavier SHRA/TSRA.
Mon...AM SHRA with PM TSRA possible. Restrictions possible, especially SE where chances for SHRA/TSRA are higher.
CLIMATE
Daily maximum rainfall records were set at Johnstown and Bradford on Tuesday, Jul 28.
JST: 1.63 inches of rain broke the record of 1.41 inches set in 1923.
BFD: 3.89 inches of rain broke the record of 2.50 inches set in 1981.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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