textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Increased % chance of precip and snow amounts in the Laurel Highlands through Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Breezy and colder weekend with rain and snow showers downwind of Lake Erie.

2) Another extended stretch of dry and seasonal weather next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Breezy and colder weekend with rain and snow showers downwind of Lake Erie.

Ongoing cold air advection (CAA) downwind of the Lower Great Lakes via W/NW low level wind trajectories will result in a continued expansion of lake effect and terrain enhanced rain/snow streamers through tonight. We increased % chance and duration of POPs and added to snow amounts along Laurel Mtn where favorable Huron connection could bring 2-3" to the summits and ski resorts by Sunday night. Snow accumulations elsewhere over the higher terrain of the NW Allegheny Plateau will generally be less than an inch. Brisk NW winds 20-30 mph through the weekend will add a winter-like chill factor with daytime temps feeling no better than 30-40 degrees.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Another extended stretch of dry and seasonal weather next week.

Lake effect rain and snow showers come to an end by Monday morning as an upper level ridge builds into the region. High pressure at the surface and aloft will provide dry conditions with mainly clear skies for next week along with moderating temperatures. Highs should reach the 55-65F range by the second half of next week or +10-15 degrees above the historical average for mid November. Light winds, low humidity, and abundant sunshine will be ideal for any outdoor activities. Whether raking leaves, putting out holiday decorations, or enjoying time outside, it will be an ideal stretch of weather.

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Northwest flow is bringing cold air across the Great Lakes and keeping extensive cloud cover over the area into Sunday, along with narrow bands of rain and snow showers. JST and BFD will see the lowest conditions into Sunday morning with JST expected to see a period of LIFR conditions (exact timing for that period is lower in confidence). AOO and UNV have a smaller chance of rain and snow showers, but a few are still expected, therefore VCSH is mentioned in the TAFs.

A period of rain showers that will bring UNV down to MVFR is possible tonight, but confidence is also low on exact timing. In the east, MDT, IPT, and LNS will remain VFR.

Gusty winds will continue into Sunday with gusts commonly expected in the 20-25 mph range. Conditions will slowly improve late Sunday into Monday morning, as the upper level trough axis moves across the area to the southeast. Monday morning and onwards high pressure will keep clear skies over central PA with VFR conditions prevailing for the rest of next week.

Outlook...

Mon-Thu...VFR conditions to prevail.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.