textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Noticeably cooler start the last weekend of April with rain/drizzle today into tonight before ending early Sunday

2) More seasonable/cooler end to what has been one of the warmest April's to date; much below normal temperatures possible to start May along with renewed frost/freeze risk

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Noticeably cooler start the last weekend of April with periods of rain/drizzle into tonight before ending early Sunday

Cool and wet start to the last weekend of April as rain gradually expands from northwest to southeast across CPA through the evening. Forecast rainfall totals by Sunday morning remain in the 0.50-1.00" range which will be particularly beneficial for moderate to severe drought areas across far south central into southeastern PA.

Classic CAD pattern complete with moist easterly llvl flow will result in max temps 15 to 20 degrees lower vs. Friday. A rather dreary and chilly overnight period is expected with rain and drizzle ending from NW-SE by ~15Z Sunday.

Clear/calm conditions with very low pwats associated with high pressure migrating over the area may result in a frost risk across some parts of the area late Sunday night into early Monday morning.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: More seasonable/cooler end to what has been one of the warmest April's to date; much below normal temperatures possible to start May along with renewed frost/freeze risk

Most sites are tracking top 5-10 warmest April-to-date. The much above normal to near-record warmth over the past 3-4 weeks is expected to fizzle out through month-end with increasing confidence in below normal temperatures into early May. This late Spring setback will also feature a renewed frost/freeze risk for a growing season that started weeks in advance of the climatological/historical average.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

An area of showers and storms over northwestern Ohio will begin to encroach into our area as the low pressure center located over southern Michigan continues to advance eastward. VFR is expected to continue through the overnight ours into early Saturday morning, but rain could begin in KBFD as early as 07Z.

Expect conditions to deteriorate early Saturday morning, as colder air works into the area, along with more widespread rain along the progressing frontal boundaries. Rain will be mostly stratiform in nature and visibility reductions are expected for large portions of Saturday afternoon while rain is ongoing. Ceilings will also likely dip into or below IFR conditions Saturday afternoon.

Expect conditions to improve some on Sunday, as the rain tapers off, but MVFR will likely hang on through the end of the weekend. Best chance for dry conditions and better CIGS for flying will be on Monday into perhaps the first part of Tuesday. Wet conditions later Tuesday into much of the upcoming week.

Outlook...

Sun...Rain tapering from west to east, with some improvement in conditions.

Mon...VFR likely.

Tue...VFR early, with restrictions west to east as ceilings lower and showers move in.

Wed...A wet day with restrictions likely.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.