textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Humid with additional showers/thunderstorms possible late today through the first half of tonight along and ahead of a cold front moving south from New York state.

2) Seasonably cooler and less humid for later Thursday through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Humid with additional showers/thunderstorms possible late today through the first half of tonight along and ahead of a cold front moving south from New York state.

A weak ridge of high pressure over Central PA this morning will move east and off the New Jersey coast this afternoon allowing warm, humid air to push northeast across the state this afternoon and evening. Much of today will be partly to mostly sunny (SE half of the CWA) and mostly cloudy (NW) but generally dry, with a light NW breeze across the eastern half of the state, and a light southwesterly breeze over the west - freshening to around 10 kts this afternoon.

This warmer and more moist air streaming NE above the shallow and slightly cooler airmass over the Northern half of the state will lead to variable amounts stratus and stratocu this morning, but vertical mixing will lift cloud bases by 14-17Z KUNV, KAOO and KJST.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this evening until shortly after midnight, along and just ahead of a cold front that will be drifting south from New York State and a mid and upper level WNW jet max approaching from the Glakes region. HREF's MU CAPE rising to between 1000-1500 J/KG will create the opportunity for moderately strong updrafts and the potential for some isolated wind damage from peak gusts of 40-45 kts and small hail.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Seasonably cooler and less humid Friday and Saturday

Comfortably cooler and noticeably drier (less humid) air accompanies seasonably strong/Canadian high pressure building southeast from the Upper Midwest Friday night through Saturday.

Below normal pwats will facilitate pleasant days and crisp nights (40s and 50s most locations Friday night/AM Saturday).

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Much of today will be partly to mostly sunny (SE half of the CWA) and mostly cloudy (NW) but generally dry, with a light NW breeze across the eastern half of the state, and a light southwesterly breeze over the west - freshening to around 10 kts this afternoon.

This warmer and more moist air streaming NE above the shallow and slightly cooler airmass over the Northern half of the state will lead to variable amounts of IFR to MVFR stratus and stratocu this morning, but vertical mixing will lift cloud bases to MVFR or even low end VFR by 14-17Z KUNV, KAOO and KJST. KMDT and KLNS will likely stay MVFR for most or all of the daylight hours, while KBFD could hold onto MVFR CIGS through the late morning and much or all of the afternoon.

Scattered SHRA/TSRA will develop again shortly before dusk across Northern PA with storms moving East-Southeast and bringing brief IFR to MVFR conditions

Outlook...

Thu...Scattered showers/storms mainly across the southern Tier of PA. Restrictions possible.

Fri...Mainly VFR. A few showers or storms possible over southwestern PA.

Sat...Mainly VFR.

Sun...Restrictions poss in SHRA/TSRA.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.