textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Continued to refine PoPs and ptype for Sunday * PoPs have risen for the latter half of next week

KEY MESSAGES

1) Sunday precipitation looks like mostly rain, but some of the higher elevations could get a very thin, slushy accum.

2) Thaw next week comes with a high chance for precip, mainly rain.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Sunday precipitation looks like mostly rain, but some of the higher elevations could get a very thin, slushy accum.

Small shortwave trough pushing across the upper Great Lakes will help to draw precip just a little farther north than prev fcst had going for Sun-night.

Models now in high agreement that up to 0.15" of liquid should fall along the MD border Sunday aftn/evening. The measurable precip is also progged to get up to at least Route 22. Temps in mid-day will initially be mild enough for rain, but dynamic cooling/wet-bulbing could lower the freezing level to allow some snow to reach the hill tops, esp in Schuylkill Co and perhaps even Blue Mtn and South Mtn. So, they could see the rain turn to snow, but the QPF is low. So, no problems are expected with just a thin, slushy accum over just the hill tops.

---------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Thaw next week comes with a high chance for precip, mainly rain.

After a couple of days of warm-up, a baroclinic zone looks like it will sink south into PA. It will then waggle back and forth, never straying too far. The temps during that period may dip into the 30s across the N/NE at times, so there is some mention of RA/SN mix for days 6-8, but most of the area is expected to have temps warm enough to keep it rain.

Maxes should get into the 50s in the S for Tues-Thurs, and at least 40F in the cold hollows of the N. At least one of those nights should stay above 32F for (almost) everyone, too.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Weak frontal system has pushed snow showers into northern PA as of late evening. BFD came down below 2 miles, but now up a bit. Models not quite as far south and east with this as obs and radar show at the current time.

Anyway, looking at mainly VFR conditions today, away from BFD.

Issue early on will be LLWS across the west.

Skies clear out later today, especially in areas that are east of the mtns.

Lower clouds could linger in BFD into tonight.

Winds will weaken by sunset, as a weak high pressure builds into the area.

Outlook...

Sun...Low clouds with scattered rain/snow mix over the area.

Mon...Low clouds linger much of the day. IFR expected NW.

Tue...Mainly VFR.

Wed...IFR -RA/cigs N, MVFR -RA/cigs elsewhere.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.