textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A dry end to the last big weekend of the summer season.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: A dry end to the last big weekend of the summer season.

After a summer of stormy conditions, especially on the weekend, this Sunday will feature lots of sun and dry weather for the holiday weekend, as high pressure slowly builds into the area. Low chance of a shower across areas to our east and north on Sunday. Went with a dry fcst for our area. Enjoy your holiday weekend.

There could be some river valley, patchy fog Monday and even Tuesday morning, given light winds, clear skies, and recent wet conditions.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Patchy fog is developing in many of the river valleys of central Pennsylvania and will likely continue to expand over the next few hours with clear skies and light winds in place. Some guidance indicates the potential for low stratus to develop over northern PA between 08Z and 12Z, but confidence is low on the overall extent of these clouds. IFR restrictions from fog and/or stratus is most likely at BFD and IPT, though AOO and UNV could see some lower visibility develop as well.

VFR conditions return to all TAF sites by 14Z and will continue through the rest of the day with scattered to broken clouds between 3000 and 5000 feet and light winds out of the north- northeast. An isolated shower cannot be ruled out during the afternoon, though most locations will remain dry. Skies clear out again Sunday night and there is a strong signal in much of the guidance for fog development. Confidence on impacts at TAF sites is low as there is still some lingering uncertainty as to how much the dry airmass in place over the region will limit the extent of the fog.

Outlook...

Mon-Tue...AM fog possible; otherwise predominantly VFR.

Wed...Primarily VFR, although late-day SHRA/TSRA possible across the northern tier.

Thu...Cold FROPA could bring scattered SHRA/TSRA areawide.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.