textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Windy start to the week with light rain in the northern tier 2) First accumulating snow of the season possible for late week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Windy start to the week with light rain in the northern tier

Another upper level trough and weak sfc cold front will bring light rain mainly to the northern tier of CPA later tonight through Monday morning. A steady breeze from the west/southwest will shift to the NW and ramp higher into Monday afternoon with peaks gusts up to 40 mph. Breezy conditions will continue through the first part of the week with temperatures rebounding modestly higher by Tuesday. No additional precip is forecast through midweek.

KEY MESSAGE 2: First accumulating snow of the season possible for late week

There is a growing model signal for a substantial long wave trough to carve out over the eastern U.S. by the end of the week. An amplifying shortwave embedded within the deep upper trough trough should drive a sfc low across the region Thursday and could develop into a potential nor'easter as it tracks offshore. While the the low track and expected impacts are still not clear, precip prospects continue to increase for late in the week. The most likely scenario at this point would lean toward a widespread area of rain Thursday mixing/changing to snow across the higher elevations Thursday night into Friday. Cold air expanding southward behind an increasing NW wind could drive lake effect and upslope precip Friday night into the weekend. Friday and Saturday are fcst to be the coldest days with temperatures 5-10 degrees below normal.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR flying through 09/0000UTC. Expect lowering ceilings tonight with sub-VFR restrictions most likely at KBFD and KJST. KBFD will also encounter periods of light rain overnight through Monday morning. Added LLWS at KJST/KAOO/KUNV later this evening based on sounding profiles and model output. Wind gusts from 280 to 310 degrees ramp higher by Monday afternoon in the 25-30kt range.

Outlook...

Tue-Wed...Mainly VFR with wind from 240-270 deg gusting around 15-25 kts during the daytime.

Thu-Fri...Leaning sub-VFR with rain, snow, and windy conditions possible.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.