textproduct: State College

SYNOPSIS

* Lake effect snow will persist through Friday evening for the northwestern mountains, mainly close to the NY border. * A couple quick-hitting systems will bring light snow on Saturday night and Monday, mainly across northern PA. * Temperatures will trend warmer next week along with a few chances for rain.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Another chilly start to the day with temperatures in the single digits up north and low 20s close to the Mason-Dixon Line. Overcast skies helped keep temperatures from dropping any further overnight and also generated garden variety snow showers/flurries for many locations along, north, and west of the I-99/I-80 corridor.

During the day today, lake effect snow showers will persist in northwest PA. An additional 1 to 3 inches is possible in extreme northwest Warren County where a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 4PM/21Z. Farther southeast, a coating of snow is possible approximately as far southeast as I-80 and I-99. It will be breezy once again today, though less so than the past few. West winds 10 to 15 mph will be accompanied by gusts of 15 to 25 mph. Temperatures will be on the rise as well compared to yesterday, with highs ranging from near 20 to the middle 30s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

On a large scale, upper level troughing will gradually give way to increasing heights and ridging this weekend. In the midst of this general trend, a shortwave will move through Saturday night into Sunday and bring a patch of light snow to northern PA. A surface low coming up through the southeast US this weekend would need to trend significantly farther north than currently expected to create more significant snowfall. At this time, the northern mountains will pick up <2" at most, which is not enough to warrant any extra attention/WWAs. Additional phasing/a more northward track of the low could bring some snow to southeast PA, but a dry solution is favored there at this point.

From a temperature standpoint, the weekend will see ever so slightly increasing temperatures day over day. Saturday sees highs similar to Friday, in the low 20s to mid 30s, with Sunday getting back to near average for this time of year in the mid 20s to upper 30s. Cloud skies will prevail for most of the weekend, though a downsloping northwest wind on Sunday could yield sunshine southeast of I-81.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

A wavy upper level pattern will bring another weather system Monday into Tuesday and this one looks like it will have a bit more moisture with it. Similar to the Saturday PM - Sunday system, the highest amounts will be in NY and hardly any accums are expected S of I-80.

In the wake of the aforementioned system, upper ridging really begins to build and surface winds will come out of the south through midweek. Maxes for the rest of the week will run mostly in the 40s. Some lucky towns along and S of the Turnpike will breach 50F on Wednesday and perhaps Thursday. A series of weak waves will move across the region next week, with rain as the favored precipitation type. No significant weather systems are anticipated at this time.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

West to northwest flow will continue across central PA trough Saturday, with MVFR or lower cigs persisting at BFD and JST through the TAF period, and several hours of MVFR cigs possible at AOO and UNV Friday night. Snow showers may bring the vsby down to IFR this afternoon at BFD, but the visibility sensor at the airfield is inop with parts on order, estimated to be repaired early next week. Farther south and east, scattered flurries are expected for the remainder of this afternoon without significant drops in vsby. Meanwhile across the southern tier, downslope flow is helping the skies become clear.

A weak clipper system passing by to the north will result in lower cigs and reduced vsby in light snow Saturday night, mainly across the northern tier.

Outlook...

Sun..Lingering snow showers in the N/W bring reductions at BFD and JST, with predominantly VFR conds elsewhere.

Mon...Light snow possible in the north early, otherwise mainly VFR.

Tue-Wed...Restrictions possible in the N/W, light rain possible

CLIMATE

2025 closed out with many small snowfalls across Central PA, but it was a mainly drier than normal Dec.

The yearly summaries show that temperatures were very much near normal when spread out throughout the whole year. Jan was colder than normal, then we swung to warmer than normal for March. After a brief cold shot in early April, we rebounded above normal again for the rest of the month. May and June were generally near normal, but some record and near-record highs showed up in late June. July and much of August were near normal, but temps dipped slightly for the end of Aug and first part of Sept. The latter half of Sept was very mild with a few days near records. Oct and Nov were pretty close to normals, but Dec was cold. except for one big spike to near record warmth on the 19th.

We did have a very dry start to the year (and low snowfall totals) in much of PA. The early deficits led to drought conditions later in the year, despite a fairly close-to-normal amount of rainfall in the late spring and early summer. Drought conditions (especially in the southeast (Lower Susquehanna and Delaware Valleys)) early in the year were largely erased, but then returned/shifted to the northern half of the state and southwestern counties late in the summer and spread slowly to cover much of the state late in the year. Starting in early Dec, much of Central PA has been under into a Drought Watch.

See the annual climate summaries (CLA) for some detailed info for each of our five long-term climate reporting stations. CLAMDT, CLAIPT, CLAAOO, CLABFD and CLAJST.

Much more info including data plot and graphs can be made on the fly by going to: "weather.gov/statecollege" and clicking on the "Climate and Past Weather" tab just above the front-page map. That will take you to the "NOWData" tab. Select options there to see a myriad of info on past weather and how it relates to long-term normals. The current period of normals is the 30 years from 1990-2020. We have a few sites that have data back more than 120 years (Williamsport, Harrisburg, and State College). Some detailed historical snowfall info, including past seasonal snow total maps, is also available by going to "weather.gov/statecollege/moreWater" and clicking on the "Snowfall Info" tab.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ004.