textproduct: State College

SYNOPSIS

* Blustery and very cold conditions on Monday will be followed by a warming trend Tuesday into Thursday. * Winds will pick up by midweek with gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible on Wednesday. * Widespread rainfall is expected late Thursday/Thursday night, tapering off as snow showers Friday with the next shot of cold air and wind with gusts over 40 mph possible Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Lake effect snow warnings, winter weather advisories, and cold weather advisories will expire as scheduled this morning. Periods of light snow continue early this morning across the Laurels and the NW Mountains. As the day progresses, the upslope snow in the Laurels will dissipate and the primary forcing for snow in the northern tier will be a fast moving clipper system moving across NY State. With limited moisture and modest forcing, new snow amounts are expected to remain less than 1 inch. High temps will be just a few degrees warmer than they were on Sunday, but winds will be weaker, taking the edge off the biting cold.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

A large scale pattern shift will support a west to southwest flow of milder air into the area by Tuesday. No precip is expected Tuesday, but skies will transition from mostly clear in the morning to mostly cloudy in the afternoon as a warm front passes through the area. We'll be in the warm sector much of the day Wed with highs breaking above freezing for all but the northern tier. A quick moving, moisture starved cold front will clip the northern half of PA later on Wed with only a few stray rain or snow showers possible across the north and west. Winds may gust above 30 mph during Wed afternoon.

The upper jet pattern becomes more amplified on Thursday with a digging trough moving from the Pac NW into the Midwest and a ridge building over the eastern US. This will result in strong warm advection across the area on Thursday with all of central PA expected to warm above freezing (most spots in the 40s). A period of rain, potentially heavy at times, is likely late Thu/Thu night with the passage of the next cold front. Rain will likely taper to snow showers in the north and west.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

The cold front will knock temps back into the 20s and 30s for highs Friday, as wind gusts of up to 40 mph advect in colder air. Lake effect/upslope snow showers will remain possible in the N/W Fri. As high pressure moves over the area Fri night, snow showers will taper off and winds will diminish. Some light precip is possible later Sat into Sun as the next round of warm air advection precedes a clipper system moving across the Great Lakes.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Light snow showers continuing from KBFD to KJST resulting in sub-VFR visibilities. Expecting mainly MVFR ceilings across the Alleghenies through much of today with VFR conditions returning farther south and east. Wind gusts of 15-20 knots will remain for many locales through this morning, with these dwindling this afternoon. A quick moving clipper system will move across the north-central PA airspace this afternoon as high pressure nudges into south-central PA. This will bring a chance of light snow showers to mainly KBFD, but KIPT/KUNV could see a snow shower approach the terminal as well.

A weakening pressure gradient will help winds diminish tonight into Tuesday with MVFR ceilings still a possibility at KBFD and across the northern tier of PA farther away from the surface ridge. Will have to monitor the potential for LLWS as surface winds diminish this evening/tonight. The best chances for this look to be at KJST and points south across the Laurel Highlands where winds increase more toward FL020.

Outlook...

Tue-Wed...No sig wx.

Thu...Widespread SHRA occasionally reducing conditions to IFR. May end as a brief period of snow in the west.

Fri...Gusty W wind. MVFR w/SCT SHSN NW. Mainly VFR elsewhere.

CLIMATE

Astronomical winter (solstice) begins at 10:03 a.m. on Sunday, December 21st.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for PAZ004-005. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for PAZ010- 017-024-033. Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for PAZ024- 033.