textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Added mention of fire weather concerns as a key message

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain-free and mild conditions will persist through the end of October

2) Trending wetter to start November

3) Fire weather concerns may start to increase later this week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain-free and mild conditions will persist through the end of October

Noon Update... Forecast on track. No tweaks worth noting to the next 24 hrs.

Previous discussion... In the wake of a moisture-deprived cold front last night, we'll see another dry day across the Commonwealth with very low dewpoints in northeast PA. Temperatures will be cooler than Monday, but still several degrees above normal for this time of year. The cold front will lift north again as a warm front on Wednesday, bringing increasing clouds but no rain chances.

Temperatures will trend warmer through Friday ahead of another cold front and then decrease a bit into the weekend. Saturday will be similar to Wednesday with increasing clouds but no rain. Daytime and overnight temperatures will be +5 to +15 degrees above average for this time of year through the weekend, providing great conditions for trick or treat. Whether neighborhoods are hosting beggars night on Halloween or moving it earlier, mild and dry conditions will prevail.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Trending wetter to start November

After not seeing a drop of rain in nearly 2 weeks, November will start off with a couple chances for rain. There remains some model uncertainty, but a trough should move through the central part of the United States early next week. This should deliver enough upper level support to generate some accumulating rainfall across the Commonwealth. Climate Prediction Center outlooks lean wetter than average for the first couple of weeks in November, though the signal is not super strong. Temperature trends favor above normal temperatures with much higher confidence. Notably, the monthly outlook for November begins to take on a classic El Nino pattern with above normal precipitation favored across the southeast US up through the I-95 corridor and below normal precipitation for the Great Lakes. This could set the stage for an active storm track bringing wet conditions to the Lower Susquehanna Valley while the northwest mountains continue their dry trend.

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KEY MESSAGE 3: Fire weather concerns may start to increase later this week.

Min RH values will be lowest this afternoon (mid 30s N to m50s S) and rise for Wed-Thur as dew points increase thanks to return flow as the high pressure overhead moves to the east. The winds will pick up a bit for the same time frame and for Friday, too. The RHs will likely drop some Friday and even further on Sat after a cold front moves through on Friday. This reduction in RH and increase in wind speeds could increase the risk of rapid wildfire spread, especially when combined with any reduction in fuel moisture. Collaboration on Fire Weather issues may be necessary, at the least worthwhile, toward week's end.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Skies look mostly clear with a high cirrus deck moving in from the west. This is in relation to a weak warm front that will pass through tomorrow morning switching surface flow from a northerly/easterly one to a southerly one tomorrow. Winds look to remain calm over the next 24 hours. VFR is expected with this time period as well.

HREF guidance showed some signal (<30%) of MVFR visibility restrictions creeping into JST and AOO between 10Z-13Z. That said, winds aren't anticipated to be calm enough tonight to introduce these restrictions as prevailing. AOO is anticipated to be closer to calm winds though so they could be a site to watch tonight for possible visibility restrictions in future TAF packages.

Outlook...

Wed-Thu...VFR likely.

Fri...MVFR cigs possible mainly in the north and west due to a cold front.

Sat...Mainly VFR conditions.

Sun...Light rain may lead to restrictions, VFR otherwise

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.