textproduct: State College

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Targeting areas of likely POPS for showers/isolated TSRA tonight associated with a few compact mid-level shortwaves and their mesoscale uvvel, moving NE along the southern edge of a 60-70kt upper level jet stretched from Lake Erie to the St. Lawrence Valley.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periods of showers/scattered thunderstorms tonight and again Saturday afternoon/evening (mainly over the SE half of PA) will bring localized threat for gusty wind, and rain heavy enough to increase the chcs for localized flash flooding.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

For the 00Z TAF package, the main changes were to include some Prob30s for early nighttime convection tonight, then mid afternoon to early evening convection on Saturday. This rainfall will occur as a result of the favorable area (Right entrance region of an upper level jet max) for broad mesoscale lift and convection slides ESE across PA overnight/Saturday.

Also tweaked the timing and duration of lower cigs/vsbys in convection (and fog) later tonight/early Saturday.

High PWATs and heavy downpours means that any of the storms may be capable of brief IFR visibility restrictions should they cross paths with a terminal.

Outlook...

Sat...Pockets of fog in the morning. Scattered showers/isolated t-storms with heavy downpours and localized restrictions.

Sun...Mostly dry, some potential for isolated showers across far W PA. Restrictions possible.

Mon-Tue...Scattered showers/storms. Restrictions possible.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

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