textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Severe weather ongoing. Enhanced SVR risk isssued.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Severe weather is and will imapcting all of central PA

2) Warmth surges again next week with a classic summerlike pattern expected - though uncertainty remains.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe weather is and will imapcting all of central PA

Not time to write. Lots of damage occurring across the southern section of the CWA at this time with sporadic/disorganized severe storms elsewhere. Due to the liklihood of widespread wind damage, the SPC has increased our risk to Enhanced for the next 4 hrs. Watch 278 runs through 8 PM and timing there is great. May be able to clear off some of the north from the watch soon, but still a small threat of additional storms there as front moves through.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Warmth surges again next week with a classic summerlike pattern expected - though uncertainty remains.

Following a modest cool down on Monday, emerging model data continues to signal above normal temperatures for the rest of next week. Even the cool down on Monday will see above normal high temperatures for most of the area. Long range models diverge on potential solutions toward the end of next week. A prevailing ridge in place over the eastern US will ensure above normal temperatures (80s and 90s), but models diverge in how they handle an upper closed low moving out of the South Central US up towards the Great Lakes. Latest NBM has 20-40 pct PoPs covering at least a portion of central PA each day Tuesday through the end of the coming week, but realistically much of that time period may end up dry if the unsettled weather with the aforementioned upper disturbance passes to our west.

AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Confidence has increased regarding the potential for thunderstorms across the southern terminals (KJST/KAOO/KMDT/KLNS) as an MCS tracks eastward from the Ohio Valley. MCS maintenance is supported by adequate MLCAPE (around 1000 J/kg) / line-normal bulk shear (20-30 kts). Although the extent of strong wind gusts remains uncertain, conditions are supportive of severe-level wind gusts (50+ kts) embedded within this line.

A cold front dropping across the region through this evening will bring additional showers/storms, with convection related to this front primarily handled by PROB30s for the 18Z TAF issuance due to uncertainties regarding timing/impacts. Nevertheless, gusty winds may occur with these storms as well, including locally severe-level wind gusts.

In the wake of these storms, clearing skies and lighter winds may support mist/fog development overnight, especially across areas where rain had fallen. Flight restrictions are most likely across KBFD/KJST due to the combination of upslope flow & low-level moisture. Fog/stratus will dissipate after 12-15Z Sunday as the boundary layer mixes out, followed by a SCT VFR cumulus deck + post-frontal northwesterly winds at 10-15 kts gusting to around 20-25 kts during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Sun-Tue...VFR favored outside of isolated morning fog. Restrictions possible in -SHRA/-TSRA early Sun & again late Tue.

Wed-Thu...Restrictions possible in -SHRA/-TSRA.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.