textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Leaned lower for max/min temps today and tonight * Leaned lower for dewpoints during the afternoon Sat & Sun * Added patchy fog/frost to the northern tier of CPA tonight

KEY MESSAGES

1) Refreshingly cool and breezy start to the last weekend of May

2) Pleasant, rain-free dry spell with low humidity to end May and start June

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Refreshingly cool and breezy start to the last weekend of May

0500 UTC sfc obs show a mainly dry cold front/wind shift near the I-80 corridor with pressure-rise induced wind gusts from the north maximized at 25-35 mph range over the Endless Mtns and Poconos. The front will south of the MD line by daybreak with refreshingly cool/dry Canadian air pouring into CPA to start the last weekend of May.

Highs in the upper 50s to near 70F this afternoon will be 5 to 15 degrees below climo. Max wind gusts are fcst in the 30-40 mph range the over the eastern portion of the area early today in conjunction with pressure rises to the west of deep sfc low exiting the New England coast/Cape Cod.

A relatively chilly overnight period by the end of May climo standards with patchy fog/frost added to parts of the northern tier. Confidence has increased in lower min temps vs. NBM given favorable low pwat/dewpoint radiational cooling setup; expect the usual cold spots to print lows in the mid-upper 30s early Sunday morning.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Pleasant, rain-free dry spell with low humidity to end May and start June

Persistent, high-amplitude omega blocking pattern over the northern CONUS will bring an extended stretch of rain-free (dry) weather to close out May and start off June.

The pleasant and refreshing conditions (with near to slightly cooler than average temperatures) are fcst trend warmer by late next week with more summerlike conditions projected by the first weekend of June.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR expected across all sites for the rest of tonight. Sky conditions will be generally SKC the rest of the night as the mid-level cloud deck pivots off to the south. The secondary push of cold air won't have much moisture associated with it, so restrictions via cloud cover are unlikely. Overall, a nice stretch of good VFR conditions is expected through the weekend.

The leading edge of the secondary push of cooler air from the north is currently moving southward from northern PA. 35-40kt NW low level flow aloft will accompany it, leading to instances of LLWS possible over the new few hours (06Z-12Z). This is most likely over the eastern TAF sites IPT, MDT, and LNS.

Winds will become gusty and out of the north at the surface following the passage of the cold front. Gustiest conditions will be present at the eastern TAF sites Sat morning with gusts of 30-35kts possible. Gusty conditions look to taper off during the afternoon, shutting off Sat night.

Outlook...

Sat-Mon...VFR with no significant weather expected.

Tue...Watching for isolated shower activity, restrictions possible

Wed...Mostly VFR with high pressure building in

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.