textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No sig changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lingering showers across the southern tier gradually taper off tonight into tomorrow, giving way to dry weather to end the week. Coastal storm effects still look like they will stay mainly east of PA.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Lingering showers across the southern tier gradually taper off tonight into tomorrow, giving way to dry weather to end the week. Coastal storm effects still look like they will stay mainly east of PA.

High pressure and drier air moving down from the north will start to dominate the forecast for the next 7 days. Lingering SHRA over the southern tier tonight will pose no heavy rain threat. Any -RA left over in the morning could be entirely south of the CWA. We'll start to see high clouds from the coastal low on Friday or even before then. We are leaving in the NBM 20 PoPs for the east for the weekend for places E of the Susq R without any confidence to totally drop mentions of it.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Isolated -SHRA will continue across the southern tier tonight into early Wednesday morning. The LAMP does have a few to several hours of MVFR cigs/vsby at JST/AOO/UNV later tonight into the predawn hours Wed, but obs seem to be trending in a drier direction, so probability for MVFR conds is only in the 30-50 pct range.

Otherwise, VFR will prevail across much of central Pennsylvania through Wednesday night given the drier air in place (ceiling restrictions unlikely) + E/NE flow remaining at 5-10 kts overnight (fog unlikely). Daytime winds will be from the E to NE with gusts up to 25 kts, especially in the Lower Susq Valley.

One exception to VFR conditions during the current TAF period may be intermittent MVFR ceilings (10-20% chance) across the Laurels (KJST/KAOO) later in the day, mainly between 18-24Z, due to terrain-induced cumulus/stratocumulus within easterly flow. As the boundary layer decouples during the evening, these clouds will decrease in coverage, allowing for a return to VFR.

The other exception looks to be across the Lower Susquehanna Valley (KMDT/KLNS) after roughly 06Z Thursday, where NE flow may bring in a shallow moisture layer at around 925 mb and result in MVFR ceilings. Nevertheless, VFR is still favored through the night across those sites, with likelihood of MVFR being around 10%.

Outlook...

Thu-Sun...VFR favored as a developing coastal low looks to bring subsidence overhead, though -RA and lower cloud ceilings associated with this system may reach our eastern terminals this weekend (20 pct chc).

CLIMATE

Astronomical fall began today, September 22, 2026, at 8:04PM EDT. This marks the time of the autumnal equinox when the sun is directly above Earth's equator.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.