textproduct: State College

SYNOPSIS

* Chance of a bit of light snow at times today. * Pattern shift will bring an early January thaw to CPA with a substantial warming trend/above normal temperatures Tue-Sat * Best odds for rain are later Tuesday and again on Friday and Saturday * Colder weather by next Sunday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

Warm advection will bring some chance for a bit of light snow today, but the chance has been looking less likely than several days ago. While the highest pops will be across the northwest, I did adjust POPS up a little in the far southeast, to match up better. Sometimes pcpn jumps over much of central PA, then reforms a bit more over the far southeast, perhaps partly due to the Blue Mtn range. Also there isa better chance to pick up a bit of moisture from the big pond. Either way, not much accumulation expected. Also temperatures will warm to above freezing across most if not all the CWA, so the potential for impacts is low.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

While most of the moisture holds off to later in the day on Tuesday, there are still models that show some small areas of QPF toward the western edge of our CWA Tuesday morning. The chance of freezing rain a bit lower now at the onset, but still possible, given sfc temps early on. Bulk of the rain would be later in the day, tapering off after Midnight Tuesday. Much of central PA could warm into the 40s.

Temperatures fcst to be near freezing late Tuesday night, but most if not all the PCPN would be over with by then. Cold advection not real strong with this system across our area.

The low reforms off the New England coast, but pulls out rather fast, and cold advection limited for our area, so overall situation not bad for early January.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As noted above, cold advection early Wednesday not real strong for our area. Overall Wednesday into Thursday should be mainly dry, with a nice break from the recent cold.

Earlier information below.

Very minor changes with the late evening update.

Prev... Breezy start Wednesday; otherwise mild and drying out but staying mostly cloudy as low stratus/stratocu get trapped beneath the inversion associated with high pressure building over the area. Highs Wednesday are fcst to be 10-15F above the historical average in the 35-50F range (NW-SE).

Warming trend ramps up Thursday into the weekend. This will be the peak of the early January thaw. Max temps are projected to be 10-20 degrees above normal for early January in the 45-55F range. It will also be a fairly wet period from Thursday night into the weekend with broad SW flow aloft and hi pwats surging into the area in advance of an occluding low and slow moving cold front.

Bulk of the QPF is focused over NW PA; there is some concern that the rain combined with snowmelt/ice jams could result in some minor flooding. Risk is low, but something to be monitored in the coming days. Ice jam risk may be elevated elsewhere due to melting snowpack, increased streamflows and unseasonably mild stretch of warmth.

Beyond the long term period, the pattern looks to mean revert and cool down (behind the cold front) back to levels more typical of mid-January by early next week.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

An expansive stratus deck remains in place over Central PA this evening, resulting in IFR ceilings at BFD and JST, and MVFR ceilings at AOO and UNV. Areas farther to the east are VFR. The stratus will shrink through the night from southeast to northwest as high pressure builds in and all TAF sites will likely be VFR by 15Z.

A clipper system will bring light snow to the northern half of Pennsylvania late tonight and into the early morning, with BFD most likely to see visibility restrictions. There is a small chance (< 30 percent) of restrictions developing at IPT and UNV as well. Snow pushes off to the east by 15Z and dry weather is expected for the rest of the day with varying amounts of mid and high level clouds. Winds will be out of the south at 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...

Tue-Wed...Restrictions possible in the N/W, light rain possible

Thu...Mainly VFR.

Fri...Restrictions with a batch of steady rain.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.