textproduct: State College
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* Freeze Warning issued for Lancaster and Lebanon Counties. * Downward adjustments to dewpoints next three days.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Dry forecast holds for the next 5-6 days
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry forecast holds for next 5-6 days
Freeze seems likely enough to post yet another freeze warning for the two counties not yet out of the growing season. While the urban places may stay above freezing, the light wind and few clouds will help the rural areas to get down to 32F. Guidance does keep the values up more 32-34F for most places, but the wind should be gone, and they just need an hour to drop enough to warrant the freeze warning for >50% of each county.
The high pressure making the light/nil wind and mainly clear sky possible will silently hold onto the region for many more days. A front, starved of moisture, will approach from the Upper Great Lakes Mon night-Tues, but PoPs are hardly worth having as PWATs stay very low before the arrival of the baroclinic zone. A new airmass, just as dry as this one then moves in from the NW and continues the dry forecast. Per almost every model/member/wooly worm I could find, the next chance for rain comes on/near Halloween.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions prevail across much of central Pennsylvania this afternoon as a high pressure settles over the Northeastern US. Lingering SCT-BKN stratocumulus over the Laurels will continue to lift and clear out through this afternoon, with VFR high clouds streaming overhead later this afternoon and through the overnight hours. Wind gusts of 15-20 kts will remain possible across the southeast today in N to NE flow, with lighter winds towards the northwest, closer to the center of the high.
Outside of patchy overnight valley fog in the north (KBFD), there are very low probabilities of reductions to flight categories through the remainder of the current TAF period.
Sun-Wed...VFR prevailing conditions.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ059-066.
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