textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Slight increase in wind gusts for today; otherwise minimal changes from previous forecast cycle.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A couple of strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of southwest Pennsylvania mainly late this afternoon into the evening

2) First weekend of Spring warmup precedes rain later on Sunday into Sunday night followed by breezy and much cooler conditions for Monday

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: A couple of strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of southwest Pennsylvania mainly late this afternoon into the evening

No change to the SPC outlook for Day 1 which still shows a level 1 out of 5 (marginal) severe t-storm risk across the Upper Ohio Valley into southwest PA. Hires models depict rain expanding from NW to SE this afternoon and evening along/ahead of a cold front. Instability (MUCAPE <500 J/kg) will be limited and confined mainly to locations near and south of I-80. However, strong deep layer shear profiles and steep low level lapse rates will pose an isolated risk of locally strong/severe wind gusts. Rain should exit most of CPA by 06Z with conditions drying out to start the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2: First weekend of Spring warmup precedes rain later on Sunday into Sunday night followed by breezy and much cooler conditions for Monday

Max temps fcst to rise +10-20 degrees day/day to kickoff the first official weekend of Spring. Highs on Sunday should reach the upper 50s to lower 70s before a period of rain arrives late in the day and lasts through Sunday night. A few t-storms will be possible, with the primary severe risk located in the Ohio Valley. Colder temps bleeding southward behind a cold front could mix/turn rain to snow across the northern tier late Sunday night into early Monday morning. High temps on Monday are projected to be 15 to 25 degrees colder than Sunday and punctuated by a chilly and brisk/gusty NW wind.

The rest of next week should feature more temperature swings up and down with occasional light precip.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Some lingering clouds early this morning on most recent ECONUS Nighttime Microphysics imagery across portions of central Pennsylvania. These are expected to diminish on the whole for much of the area, allowing for mostly clear skies for the first half of the overnight period. Increasing mid-to-high level clouds are progged by most recent HREF model guidance; however, a slightly slower trend on clouds getting into the region has brought timing on clouds across the region as a whole. Overall, expect minimal sub-VFR conditions, with the only potential really looking to be at BFD over the next couple of hours with some localized visibility restrictions towards MVFR.

After sunrise, mid-to-high level clouds become more expansive across much of the region through 18Z Friday with increasing chances of rain showers NW to SE. At this time, best chances for restrictions remain at BFD/JST with higher confidence on lower ceilings within rain showers. Chances for reaching IFR thresholds have had a slight uptick compared to previous model guidance, so have leaned towards into solution with NBM/GLAMP model guidance also liking this trend. A broken line of TSRA will be possible at JST/AOO in the 22Z Fri to 03Z Sat timeframe with chances looking less likely further north/east. Given this potential, have introduced PROB30s (which matches current forecast and most recent HREF lightning guidance) for this potential. A brief period of LLWS is also possible (30-50%) chance across western terminals just ahead of this potential, thus have penciled in some LLWS mentions; however, this is an aspect that is the most uncertain in the 06Z TAF package and will need to be hammered down in future cycles.

Outlook...

Sat...Trending drier, mainly VFR expected.

Sun...Rain overspreads north to south, restrictions possible.

Mon...Rain gradually tapers off north to south, transition to snow possible mainly north of I-80 (BFD/IPT). Restrictions possible within rain/snow showers.

Tue...Mainly dry with VFR conditions. Slight chance of snow shower across N PA late which could bring some restrictions.

CLIMATE

Astronomical Spring (Vernal Equinox) officially begins today March 20th at 10:46 a.m.

EQUIPMENT

KCCX radar is offline until further notice as of 1:30am EDT on 03/20/2026. Technicians will need to visit the radar site later this morning to diagnose the problem and repair/restore service.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.