textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Lowered dewpoints this afternoon across N/W PA.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Noticeable warmup on Thursday will precede rain and thunderstorms Thursday night, followed by a chilly cool down for the end of the week into the last weekend of March.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Noticeable warmup on Thursday will precede rain and thunderstorms Thursday night, followed by a chilly cool down for the end of the week into the last weekend of March.

Partly to mostly cloudy today/tonight into Thursday and rain- free most of the time, although the odds of a passing rain shower do marginally increase late tonight through Thursday afternoon.

Thursday looks to be the warmest day of the work week, with fcst max temps +10-20 degrees above the historical average. A bit more sunshine could push temps a few degrees higher than currently forecasted maxes. Daily record highs seem out of reach, but could get close at a few sites (see climate section).

The best signal for rain continues to be 00-12Z Friday, as a strong cold front moves southeastward across PA. Heavy rain and severe storm risks are primarily focused over the Ohio Valley into the Midwest. The D2 MRGL risk SWO and ERO does clip the western periphery of the forecast area as training showers and storms could extend downstream into western PA. However, odds are that increasing stability with eastern extent and fast storm motions should reduce the severe/flood risk to the east of the Alleghenies.

Behind the cold front, a gusty N/NW wind will help to deliver a 24hr maxT change of -15 to -30 degrees for Friday. The early Spring temperature roller coaster reaches a nadir Friday night with lows Saturday morning bottoming in the teens/20s. This will be followed by a rather chilly start the last weekend of March. The cool down will be brief, however, with moderating temps expected to start the month of April.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Widespread VFR conditions are prevailing over Pennsylvania this afternoon. Skies are partly sunny to mostly cloudy, but ceilings remain above 10 KFT AGL. Air across the northwest has been drier than expected, and any chances of possible rain showers this evening remain minimal (<20%). Winds have also begun to pick up over the area, but gusts should generally remain less than 20kts.

LLWS will impact all airfields beginning early this evening, around and after 00Z Thu. The LLWS should continue through about 12Z Thursday. A cold frontal system is expected to arrive Thursday afternoon and progress over the state throughout the evening. Rain chances will begin over the western terminals of BFD and JST around 18Z tomorrow, and rain will become more widespread by 00Z. Expect lowering ceilings and flight conditions as the rain moves over PA.

Outlook...

Thu-Friday...Showers becoming more widespread with perhaps a thunderstorm. Restrictions likely.

Fri PM...Breezy with light rain exiting the southern tier.

Sat-Sun...VFR.

Mon...SCT -SHRA with restrictions possible

CLIMATE

Record high temperatures for March 26th:

Harrisburg 80 in 1921 Williamsport 78 in 1939 Altoona 79 in 1998 Bradford 73 in 2007 State College 76 in 1949

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.