textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Forecast overwhelmingly consistent.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Trending warmer through the week with a few chances for precipitation.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Trending warmer through the week with a few chances for precipitation.

Surface high pressure is continuing to slip SE. A weak low attached to a weak front will approach from the northwest this afternoon and evening, causing the pressure gradient to tighten. The resulting SSWrly wind will bring in slightly milder air. The dewpoint will try to increase very slightly today, battling the dry air in place. Some lift will push the meager moisture up over the dry/cooler air in place/overhead. An isolated SHRA may show up on radar late this aftn in the N, but it won't be heavy enough to make anything wet. The low will make a bee line for BFD overnight, and should provide enough lift to kick off more showers and many of those will make things wet. The SHRA will work from N to S, but will, sadly for the drought-stricken southern tier, be dissipating as they near the Mason-Dixon Line. QPF is only one to two tenths at most. Many places will get less than a tenth. The low will pass overhead on Wed, but much of the moisture will be displaced to the east at that point. Therefore, the PoPs are relatively low for Wed considering a front will be moving through during the daytime. The PoPs will be be highest in the SW where enough instability could be present to make a rumble of thunder. We did consider dropping the PoPs even more than the small decrease the new guidance gave us. Drought does beget drought. Will hold close to guidance for the time being.

Thursday looks rain-free as high pressure noses down from Canada. The next system splits away from a very mature cyclone over the upper plains to bring us a generous slug of moisture and a couple bouts of showers starting Friday and lasting much of Sat. It will be more humid and create much more rain than Wednesday, perhaps much of it from an MCS dropping down from the Upper Great Lakes. PoPs from NBM guidance do linger quite late into Sunday vs GFS and EC, which are much more similar with the system in their respective 00Z deterministic packages. Most places get into the 70s Thurs and Fri, but drop back near normals (maxes in the 60s) for the weekend.

The big upper low circulating over ND & srn Canada will finally slide eastward a bit as we start the new week. That will help drive moisture and either a N-S front or a more developed low through in the first part of the new week. Worth higher PoPs for Tues either way.

AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Widespread VFR flying continues through the afternoon as high pressure migrates eastward off the Mid Atlantic coast. Low level wind flow from 170-220 degrees will increase with gusts up to 20kt across the western terminals KBFD/KJST. LLWS is possible late tonight into early Wednesday morning.

Scattered rain showers/isolated t-storm will spread from northwest to southeast along a frontal boundary tonight into early Wednesday morning. Sub-VFR cigs are likely near and particularly behind the front with >70% odds for MVFR restrictions across the most of airspace between 06Z-18Z Wed.

Outlook...

Thu...VFR. Partly cloudy and rainfree.

Fri...Light rain possible. VFR to MVFR.

Sat..Periods of rain with MVFR to IFR conditions.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for PAZ004-005- 010>012-017-018. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ019-024>028- 033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.