textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Flood Warning issued for the Conestoga River at Lancaster

KEY MESSAGES

1) Late summer warmth to end August and start September with potential severe weather and heavy rain threats early next week

DISCUSSION

IR satellite trends show fog coverage expanding in the western and central valleys where skies have cleared for the most part. Can't rule out a stray shower/t-storm southeast of I-81 today, but overall conditions will be trending drier/less humid through Saturday. Noticeable cooler tonight with more locally dense valley fog into early Saturday morning.

--------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 1: Late summer warmth to end August and start September with potential bouts of severe weather and heavy rain early next week

Large scale pattern to close out August and kickoff September will feature an expansive sprawling upper ridge centered from the southern Plains into the Southeast U.S. Residing on the northeastern periphery of the upper high in CPA will open the door for returning late summer heat/humidity along with the potential for episodic bouts of severe weather/heavy rain in a ring of fire type pattern. WPC has introduced a marginal risk of excessive rain Monday 8/31 and Tuesday 9/1 across northern PA. This limited predictability flow regime offers reduced confidence in the precip department, but does send a strong warm signal for temperatures trending above the historical average as the 9th month of 2026 gets underway.

AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Fog spreading through all the valleys and some IFR CIGs in BFD and UNV. However, only AOO is also in the dumps with 1SM BR. IPT getting close with 1300ft CIG. There won't be much wind for a couple of hours, so the improvements might not happen quickly. We are leaning heavily on climo for the fog/stratus to burn off (generally 13-14Z). Expect conditions to improve to VFR during the morning, as weak high pressure builds into the area. While lots of stratocu is expected due to the wet ground and cooler temps aloft, it should be VFR (>FL030 bases) in the late morning and aftn. Fog will probably return to the northern valleys tonight. But, it could come back elsewhere depending on how much drying occurs today.

Outlook...

Sat...AM valley fog/restrictions poss then VFR.

Sun...Mainly VFR. Isold SHRA SE.

Mon...SCT SHRA N, VFR elsewhere.

Tue...SCT PM SHRA/TSRA, mainly N/E.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.