textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* A few to several KT increase in surface winds/gusts for this afternoon and again on Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread frost and freeze early today.

2) Temperatures trend warmer today through the first few days of the upcoming week, ahead of a system that will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1:

Widespread frost and freeze early today.

Several areas of thick stratocu/low end altocu clouds earlier in the overnight slowed the radiational cooling, but a clearing trend is accelerating during the predawn hours and temps are dipping by about 2 deg F/hour shortly after the onset of the clearing.

The clearing and decreasing NW breeze will allow for temperatures to fall into the 20s and 30s, leading to widespread frost and freeze concerns.

Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings are in effect for all of Central Pennsylvania through 9 am Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2:

Temperatures start to trend warmer today through the first few days of the upcoming week, ahead of a system that will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday.

After the nip in the air today with highs still 5-10 deg F below normal, expect to see high temperatures jump into the 60s and 70s on Monday and Tuesday as a moderately gusty southwesterly flow develops out ahead of the next, slow-moving cold front.

A few locations across south-central PA may even push the 80 degree mark Tuesday afternoon. Scattered-numerous showers will impact the region (mainly the NW 1/2 of PA) on Tuesday, especially across northwest PA.

The higher chance for showers and thunderstorms looks to be on Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the aforementioned cold front.

Temperatures once again turn cooler behind this front for late in the upcoming week, with potential frost/freeze concerns developing.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Very high (> 90%) confidence in widespread VFR conditions continuing through 06Z Monday. Low-level cloud deck in the 6000-8000 ft AGL range will likely continue slowly drifting southeastward in the near-term but no extensive lowering of the deck is expected with light winds overnight. Low-level clouds show some potential for a return throughout the day tomorrow with increasing gusts between 15 to 20 kts area wide with higher elevation terminals (BFD/JST) possibly pushing upwards of 25 kts during the afternoon hours. Similar pattern tomorrow with skies slowly clearing out and a decrease in winds; however, decrease in winds are expected based on all model guidance to not be as drastic as tonight.

Outlook...

Mon...Scattered -SHRA develop across wrn PA, and some thunder is possible by Monday PM.

Tue...SHRA/TSRA becomes more widespread from NW to SE; restrictions possible.

Wed-Thu...SHRA/TSRA continue; restrictions likely.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ004>006- 010>012-017>019-024>028-033-034-037-041-042-045-046. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ035-036- 049>053-056>059-063>066.