textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Seasonable with some showers through midweek followed by more unsettled and cooler conditions over the weekend

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonable with some showers through midweek followed by more unsettled and cooler conditions over the weekend

Crumbling cu into tonight setting up some valley fog formation into early Wednesday morning. Cold front crossing Lake Erie should be accompanied by rain showers into the northwest Alleghenies early Wednesday. The front may touch off some additional showers/isolated t-storm across the northwest 1/2 of the forecast area through Wednesday afternoon. Another period of rain should be focused across the southern portion of the CWA on Thursday with some locally heavy downpours possible (new D3 WPC ERO MRGL risk). The end of the week looks nice as high pressure migrates over the Keystone state.

An upper trough carving out over the Great Lakes will result in increasingly unsettled to potentially stormy wx conditions over the weekend. This system will also deliver some relatively cooler air both at the surface and aloft. This setup could prove favorable for clusters of gusty t-storms with small hail. The troughing pattern holds on into next week which favors temps near to slightly below the historical average for late August.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

A seasonably dry airmass (PWATs near 0.75-1") paired with dry daytime conditions today looks to mitigate fog development at our forecast terminals. Nevertheless, patchy valley fog is possible given mainly clear skies (VFR) and light/variable winds.

Cloud cover will increase from west to east on Wednesday as a shortwave trough moves across southern Canada, with a few showers possible as well (mainly north & west). During the morning and early afternoon, SCT-BKN cumulus near 2500-3500 ft at KBFD/KJST/KAOO may lead to brief MVFR ceilings as the boundary layer deepens, with VFR otherwise expected regionwide. Most shower activity associated with the shortwave will stay to the north toward Upstate NY; however, stray morning showers are possible around KBFD (<30% chance), with PROB30s for 6SM -SHRA included at KBFD/KJST during the afternoon. Afternoon showers also seem possible at KAOO/KUNV/KIPT, though are less likely at those sites (<30% chance). TSRA was not mentioned given low confidence in sufficient lift/instability for thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Thu...Periods of showers and perhaps some t-storms focused across the southern half of central PA.

Fri...AM fog, otherwise trending VFR.

Sat-Sun...Scattered to numerous showers/t-storms likely especially on Sunday.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.