textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No significant changes

KEY MESSAGES

1) Frost/freeze conditions are probable Monday night and Tuesday night

2) Little to no rainfall forecast through October 9th

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Frost/freeze conditions are probable Monday night and Tuesday night

The coldest air of the early Autumn season is poised to arrive by early next week with frost/freeze conditions expected Monday night and Tuesday night over much of the forecast area. Locations to the northwest of I-81 have the highest odds for frost with min temps around the freezing mark in the northern tier.

------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Little to no rainfall forecast through Oct. 9th

Increasingly moist low level southeast flow will bring low clouds and some light rain to areas along and east of the Allegheny Front later tonight through Sunday. Total QPF is <0.10 inch. This is the only precip fcst for the next 7 days.

Secondary cold front followed by colder WNW flow could bring a couple of showers downwind of Lake Erie Sunday night into early Monday. Otherwise, we continue to have high confidence in a prolonged dry stretch through next week as a large area of Canadian high pressure dominates the pattern.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR prevails into tonight. Low level flow from 090-160 degrees brings MVFR ceilings into the airspace later tonight into Sunday. Some periods of light rain are also possible especially around KMDT and KLNS. A secondary cold frontal passage followed by westerly upslope flow could bring another period of low ceilings to the western airfields along with a couple of rain showers downwind of Lake Erie Sunday night into early Monday.

Outlook...

Mon-Thu. VFR prevailing. Brief restrictions possible in late night and early morning fog.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.