textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Continue to nudge temps downward on Sat.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Noticeably cooler start the last weekend of April with periods of rain tapering off early Sunday

2) More seasonable end to what has been one of the warmest April's on record

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Noticeably cooler start the last weekend of April with periods of rain tapering off early Sunday

Have continued to nudge temps downward in the NE 2/3rds of the CWA for Sat. Rain, clouds, and CAD presenting llvl flow from the E then SE through the day seems like a recipe for a cool Spring day.

Previous... Weak area of low pressure slides east-southeastward from the thumb of lower MI to the southern Delmarva/VA Tidewater region Saturday. Passage of upper level trough and moist east/southeast llvl flow will help support periods of rain into Saturday night with total QPF amounts generally in the 0.25-0.75" range. CAD pattern will result in a 24hr maxT change on the order of 15 to 20 degrees to the downside vs. Friday. Rainfall will be of the beneficial variety particularly across the far south central and southeastern zones were moderate /D1/ to severe /D2/ drought conditions exist. Rain ends in time to salvage the second half of the last weekend of April 2026. High pressure building in Sunday night could introduce a frost risk in some parts of the area early Monday morning.

---------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: More seasonable end to what has been one of the warmest April's on record

Most sites are tracking top 5-10 warmest April-to-date through the 23rd. The much above normal warmth is expected to fizzle out through month-end as the pattern shifts cooler on the margin with more seasonable days and nights near or slightly a below the historical average heading into May.

AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Several frontal systems and outflow gust fronts across the area early this evening. Most of the scattered showers and isolated thundersorms are over with.

An area of showers and storms over northwestern Ohio northward into southern Ontario may edge into our area late tonight.

For the time being, looking at VFR conditions.

Expect conditions to lower late tonight and early Saturday morning, as colder air works into the area, along with more of a widespread rain pattern possible for Saturday.

Expect conditions to improve some on Sunday, as the rain tapers off. Best chance for dry conditions and better CIGS etc for flying will be on Monday into perhaps the first part of Tuesday. Wet conditions later Tuesday into much of the upcoming week.

Outlook...

Sun...Rain tapering from west to east, with some improvement in conditions.

Mon...VFR likely.

Tue...VFR early, with restrictions west to east as ceilings lower and showers move in.

Wed...A wet day with restrictions likely.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.