textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Freeze Warning issued for a portion of the NW Alleghenies

KEY MESSAGES

1) Frost/freeze conditions expected late tonight and early Tuesday morning over portions of the western and central Alleghenies

2) Extended stretch of dry and seasonal Fall weather this week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Frost/freeze conditions expected late tonight and early Tuesday morning over portions of the western and central Alleghenies

Upgraded freeze watch to warning for McKean, Potter, Elk, and Cameron counties earlier this aft.

Light winds, clear skies, and low PW values and low dewpoints will result in a chilly night, with the potential for frost and even a freeze in a few spots across the northwestern mountains.

Temperatures should moderate during the day, as the area of high pressure shifts to the east.

More information below.

Placement of sfc high becomes somewhat less favorable for frost/freeze Tuesday night as it migrates eastward to the Mid Atlantic coast by 12Z Wed.

------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Extended stretch of dry and seasonable Fall weather this week

High confidence in a prolonged stretch of dry and seasonable Fall wx this week with cool nights and refreshing afternoons with low humidity. The next chance of rain is on Sunday.

This will give the area a much needed chance to dry out from the wet summer and early fall so far.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR prevails throughout the week with some local valley fog impacts possible late at night and early in the morning.

Winds will diminish this evening, particularly across west- central PA (KBFD/KJST) closer to the center of high pressure moving across the Commonwealth. Patchy valley fog seems most likely at KBFD/KJST, primarily between 10-13Z Tuesday, though confidence in impacts remains too low for TAF inclusion at this time.

Not as breezy on Tuesday with NW winds of 5-10 kts during the daytime. Diurnal VFR cumulus/stratocumulus will likely develop on Tuesday, primarily near Lake Erie (SCT040 at KBFD), with fewer clouds south and east.

Outlook...

Wed-Sat. VFR conditions expected.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ004-012- 017>019-024-033-037-041-042-045. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ005-006- 010-011.