textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Lowered high temperatures for today by 1 to 2 degrees. * Increased rainfall amounts for tonight over the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Chilly Memorial Day weekend with record challenging cold max temperatures on Saturday.

2) Widespread soaking rain puts a damper on outdoor plans and activities to start the weekend.

3) Temperatures trend warmer into the middle of the week, but scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Chilly Memorial Day weekend with record challenging cold max temperatures on Saturday.

Anomalous east-southeasterly flow has resulted in an expansive low-level CAD regime over the region. The moderately gusty east/southeast wind will make it feel downright dreary/raw, unseasonably chilly and pretty miserable for this time of year - especially for outdoor activities through Sunday morning. High temperatures today will range from the mid 40s to the low 50s with winds gusting between 20 and 35 mph at times.

The 2-3 day cool stretch will certainly be noticeable following an early taste of summer, but it won't have staying power with temperatures forecast to moderate and trend above normal into the middle of next week.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Widespread soaking rain puts a damper on outdoor plans and activities to start the weekend.

Widespread rain has overspread all of Central PA this morning as an area of low pressure to our west slowly tracks to the north. This rain will continue through much of the day today, though the heaviest rain is expected to fall this morning and into the early afternoon. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are likely across most of the forecast area.

Rain begins to taper off over west-central PA later this afternoon, but another push of moderate rainfall likely moves into the east at the same time. This could bring up to an inch of additional rainfall to the Lower Susquehanna Valley into tomorrow morning. All of this rain is expected to largely be beneficial, particularly for locations that are experiencing D1/D2 drought.

Scattered showers will be possible through the day on Sunday, but rain is not expected to be nearly as widespread as it is today. Another disturbance will track through the region late Sunday into Monday, potentially bringing another round of steady rainfall along with it.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Temperatures trend warmer into the middle of the week, but scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible.

Temperatures become much warmer for Monday with highs expected to be in the mid to upper 70s as the CAD wedge begins to move out of the area. The warming trend continues into the middle of the week, with highs expected to be in the upper 70s and low 80s by Wednesday. While widespread rainfall does not appear likely, a few showers or possibly a thunderstorm will be possible each day. There is some signal for temperatures to drop back into the 60s and low 70s by the end of the week as high pressure begins to build in from the north.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Rain continues to overspread the region from southwest to the northeast early this morning restrictions have been persistent at JST and AOO thus far. Conditions will gradually deteriorate at all airfields throughout the day on Saturday, with IFR conditions beginning at BFD, KUNV, and IPT within a few hours of daybreak. MDT and LNS will see MVFR through the morning and a later onset of IFR (perhaps as late as 20Z).

The heaviest rain will occur between 10Z and 18Z as a NW to SE oriented band moves across the region. This batch of rain could drop visibilities to IFR or LIFR at times. Rain should taper off after 18Z with lingering low ceilings/drizzle through the evening. By 06Z, all airfields will almost certainly experience IFR conditions with the highest likelihood of LIFR at JST, AOO, UNV, and MDT.

In terms of winds, breezy winds are expected to pick up at all airfields tonight. Highest gusts (20-30 kts) are expected in the Laurel Highlands and NW mountains, with a secondary max near the Susq Valley. Despite gusty surface winds, a very strong low level jet aloft will lead to LLWS concerns at BFD through a majority of the TAF package.

Outlook...

Sun...Minor improvement to MVFR/IFR restrictions as rain tapers off

Mon...IFR/MVFR early, then MVFR in light rain showers

Tue...Possible morning fog/low visibility, then VFR.

Wed...Mainly VFR, some scattered SHRA could bring restrictions.

CLIMATE

Daily Record Low Maximum & Forecast Temperatures for May 23:

LOCATION RECORD (YEAR) FORECAST HIGH Harrisburg 54 (1982) 52 Williamsport 57 (1982) 50 Altoona 52 (2005) 49 Bradford 45 (1963) 46 State College 53 (1968) 49

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.