textproduct: State College
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WHAT HAS CHANGED
* Tornado Watch #336 and Severe Thunderstorm Watch #337 have been cancelled; severe weather threat has ended for CPA
KEY MESSAGES
1) Seasonably pleasant start to the week with low humidity and no rainfall
2) Severe thunderstorm risk for Thursday 6/18
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonably pleasant start to the week with low humidity and no rainfall
With the severe weather threat ended, monitoring hydro situ just to the southeast of the CWA through midnight. Radar trends indicate greatest potential closer to I95 corridor.
Influx of drier/lower pwat air filtering into western PA a sign of things to come to begin the third week of June. Expect mostly sunny and comfortable outdoor conditions Monday and Tuesday with max temps below the historical average.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: Severe thunderstorm risk for Thursday 6/18
The nose of a very strong, 40+ KT swrly 850 mb jet 50+ KT at 700 mb (both being 3+ sigma on the standardized anomaly scale), the the right entrance region of a 100 KT 250 mb jet and PWATS around 1.5 inches (with the potential of a EML surging in from the west ahead of a strong sfc cold front) will bring the ideal synoptic setup for a severe weather outbreak here in the CWA. As always, even with the moisture, instability and shear present, such strong forcing could produces plenty of clouds and early day convection to stabilize the atmos and decrease the potential for significant afternoon severe weather. We'll be monitoring this potential closely as we head into the new week.
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A cluster of storms near the MDT area and a line to the west will be the main concern the next few hours.
Expect lower CIGS overnight, before high pressure builds into the area on Monday. Winds will weaken once storms move out of the area but pick back up on Monday.
Outlook...
Tue...Mostly VFR with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA possible.
Wed...Higher chances for -SHRA/-TSRA, restrictions more likely.
Thu...Restrictions possible in -SHRA/-TSRA.
Fri...Showers ending.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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