textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Pleasant, rain-free dry spell to start June. 2) Summer conditions return later in the week into the first weekend of June.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Pleasant, rain-free dry spell to start June.

A deep upper level low over eastern Canada will rotate more energy aloft across the region tonight into Monday. The coldest air around will be advected well south into the southeast states. For central PA, mainly looking at dry conditions through mid week. Dry air is advected southward across PA, as high pressure builds southward from central Ontario. A good setup for dry conditions.

Last night was a cold night across the region, see the PNS sent. While it is much warmer now than yesterday, still looking at low dewpoints. With less wind than last night, looking at the potential for isolated cold pockets, with some frost in these spots over the next 2 nights.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Summer conditions return later in the week into the first weekend of June.

The combination of a large high pressure ridge to our west, and a low just off the NC coast will keep mainly dry weather across central PA into Friday.

More information below.

Early week East Coast upper trough/closed low near the OBX shifts eastward and allows upper ridge axis to translate downstream from the Upper Midwest through the Great Lakes. This pattern transition will deliver a noticeable warming trend for late week with summer conditions returning into the first weekend of June. Max temps climb above early June climo into the 75-85F range on Thursday followed by widespread 80-90F readings fcst Friday-Sunday. An approaching cold front impinging on a very warm and increasingly more humid airmass will favor an increasing chance for scattered showers/t-storms by Saturday.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

The VFR regime continues with clear skies expected through tonight and into tomorrow. A few clouds (lass than Sat) will pop up over eastern PA and move north to south through the afternoon as another upper level wave passes through. Any cloud bases are expected to remain above VFR criteria.

Sun is expected to see less gustiness than Sat with winds only peaking in the single digits Sun afternoon, likely strongest in the northeast. Wind direction will generally stay between westerly and northerly. Overall good weather for aviation for at least into the first part of next week.

Outlook...

Mon-Fri...VFR with no significant weather expected. Any showers Tue would be light. Any fog very limited.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.