textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Potential for heavy rain and flooding Sunday-Tuesday. 2) Outlook for first half of August is warm and wet.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Potential for heavy rain and flooding Sunday- Tuesday.

Strengthening south-southwest flow in advance of a slow moving upper trough in the Ohio Valley will drive anomalous 1.5-2" PW into CPA along and ahead of an approaching cold front on Sunday. Strong warm advection and moisture transport/LLJ combined with favorable upper dynamics should support active/elevated convection reaching west-central PA as early as late Saturday night with max POPs centered on the 24hr Sunday window. Cloud cover and early day rain showers continue to cast a shadow on conditional severe wx potential through Sunday afternoon and evening; however stronger shear values amidst a relatively low CAPE environment is worth calling out particularly if there are breaks of sunshine.

It now appears there will be at least some potential for heavy rain/flooding through early next week as the upper trough closes off or trends slower to eject out of the Ohio Valley. While WPC trimmed the level 2/4 excessive rain outlook back a bit over NW PA for Sunday/D2, we will need to watch for sneaky +RA signal to shift over eastern portions of the CWA where the level 1 marginal risk will now extends all the way to the East Coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Outlook for first half of August is warm and wet

Medium and long range numerical weather prediction guidance signals a prolonged stretch of rainy and warm (but not hot) weather across Pennsylvania for the first two weeks of August. Ensemble accumulated rainfall plots show a steady increase in rainfall amounts and a notable absence of prolonged dry spells. This will be a significant difference from August of 2025, which saw hot and extremely dry conditions to start August. In fact, many locations saw zero rainfall in the first two weeks of August last year.

--------------------------------------------------------------- July = record-setting month in terms of convective warnings. WFO CTP issued 12 Tornado Warnings in July, which is the most since 1996 when we issued 25. 95 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings is the 3rd most in any July on record, behind 1996 (96) and 2021 (122). Year-to- date, 226 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings is the most on record, passing 2019 (221), and 24 Tornado Warnings is 4th most behind 1998 (55), 2011 (37), and 1996 (30). 250 total Severe Thunderstorm Warnings + Tornado Warnings is the most on record year-to-date, passing 2019 (241).

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR flying continues into tonight with lowering ceilings expected after 06Z from west to east through Sunday morning. Added LLWS at KJST early Sunday morning to account for increasing LLJ from ~180 degrees. High confidence in widespread MVFR by Sunday afternoon with increasing convective rain shower and isold t-storm coverage expanding from west to east. Did not go as bearish as model guidance for now which favored IFR cigs across the western half of the airspace (KUNV west throughout ZOB CWSU sector). Locally heavy downpours are likely Sunday afternoon through Sunday night shifting from northwest PA through central PA into the southeast PA airspace by early Monday.

Outlook...

Mon-Thu...Unsettled through midweek with daily chances for showers and isolated t-storms. Low VFR to MVFR conditions prevailing most of the time.

CLIMATE

Here are a few key climate callouts to wrap up July 2026:

2nd wettest at Bradford (7.78"/+3.62" above normal)

6th wettest at Altoona (6.18"/+2.70" above normal)

10th wettest at State College (6.09"/+2.30" above normal)

6th most # of days with maxT >=100F at Harrisburg (3) T3rd most # of days with maxT >=100F at Williamsport (2)

In August, the daylength decreases by 2-2.5 min/day with a total loss of ~ 70 minutes by the end of the month.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.