textproduct: State College

SYNOPSIS

* Mainly cloudy conditions into Thursday * Occasional rain Friday and Friday night precedes a dry and seasonably mild back half/end to the weekend * Mild weather continues early next week before a significant pattern shift toward colder conditions around Thanksgiving

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Final update of the evening is to post a dense fog advy. This situation is not like most of our dense fog situations. The temps (and some road temps) have chilled to or even below freezing. The ice sensor on KAOO and KJST have already registered some ice accretion. So, this fog and the moist ground from earlier today is likely causing some thin iciness on objects and perhaps even black ice. Have started conservatively in area coverage of the advy. Opting to go where it is most likely with this first volley. As more places (like State College and Huntingdon, and even places in the Susq valley) get foggier, the next shift may need to expand the advy.

Earlier disc...

Still expect some sun on Thursday, but days are short now. Given the clouds to start the day off, mid and high clouds will not be far off, so high temperatures will be similar to what we have today. Still a shade below normal. Some models have a bit of shower activity edging into the Laurel Highlands by early evening.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

As noted the last few days, the fast northern jet will push a cold front across the area rather quickly on Friday, with limited shower activity.

The southern stream looks like it will not phase with the northern branch, so the area of showers and rain should be moving out by sunrise on Saturday. Heaviest amounts could be across the far southeast, as a wave trys to form on the front. Temperatures across the northwest cool to around 32 by 12Z Saturday, but that depends on skies clearing at this point to allow for cooling to take place. -------------- Some new 12Z guidance (EC for example) hint that our area might get little if any rain on Friday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Trends for the weekend support a mainly dry period, with temperatures typical for mid to late November.

Another fast moving frontal system by Tuesday, before a a bit milder for a brief time, then a possible chill. A very active and fast flow pattern supports the colder air over the north central states edging eastward toward Thanksgiving. Also have to watch for any lows that form near the southeast coast. The main issue will be like on 11/10, where the cold air could make it to northern FL again. Lake effect for our area will depend on the directional shear. Too early to pinpoint that type of detail. The main issue will be another round of cold and windy conditions.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

High clouds will increase through the night, but there should be enough breaks to support fog formation across much of Central PA. JST and AOO are observing dense fog as of 04Z, but the extent to which other TAF sites will observe fog remains highly uncertain. Fog will slowly dissipate through 15Z.

Low stratus will gradually expand north and eastward during the day on Thursday, eventually reaching all TAF sites by the middle of the afternoon. This should bring MVFR restrictions to BFD, AOO, and UNV, while ceilings at IPT, MDT, and LNS should remain between 3000 and 4000 feet.

Outlook...

Fri-Sat...Rain with restrictions likely.

Sun-Mon...Mainly VFR.

CLIMATE

KAOO power outage being worked by power company. MinT and Precip values are fine as they both occurred before the outage started. Using nearest-neighbor analysis for MaxT (averaged 40F). Will leave max wind/gust as missing.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Thursday for PAZ010-011-017- 018-024-025-033.