textproduct: State College
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WHAT HAS CHANGED
No significant changes.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Trending seasonably cooler this weekend into early next week with showery periods Saturday and Sunday
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Trending seasonably cooler this weekend into early next week with showery periods Saturday and Sunday
Large scale trough amplification expected over the Great Lakes region this weekend into early next week will spell a modest to seasonable cooling trend with showery periods Saturday and Sunday. The cyclonic flow may keep showers downwind of Lake Erie into Monday. Daytime highs will be near to slightly below the historical average for late August, making it feel more like mid September especially Sunday into Monday. SPC trimmed the MRGL back a bit to the west on Saturday, which should feature early day clouds and a few showers spreading from SE to NW during the day. Drier/less humid conditions are likely to prevail during the first half of next week.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As mentioned in the previous update, drier air and slightly more persistent winds will preclude a more widespread fog risk tonight. BR development at some sites though cannot be ruled out though. Confidence in MVFR ceilings developing this morning is highest at LNS and to a lesser extent MDT given greater moisture return in the southeast.
While VFR in a SCT/BKN low level cloud deck will be the prevailing conditions tomorrow, some isolated showers are possible in the afternoon. Chances for this are highest at MDT and LNS with spotty morning activity possible as well. This activity may lead to bounces between VFR and MVFR throughout the day tomorrow in the southeast, with greater restrictions more likely at LNS.
This showery activity will be ahead of a cluster of storms moving through in the evening/early night. Have updated PROB30s for -TSRA to reflect most confident timing at the current moment. HREF ensemble and NBM trending later in storm timing in their most recent runs. Should a strong core cross paths with an airfield, brief IFR restrictions are possible.
Outlook...
Sun...Restrictions possible, mainly NW in SHRA. Improvement elsewhere.
Mon-Wed...Patchy morning fog, otherwise mainly VFR conditions return early next week.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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