textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* A dry afternoon for a change.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Today and Monday dry, but potential for storms with heavy rain and damaging winds on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Today and Monday dry, but potential for storms with heavy rain and damaging winds on Tuesday.

Not a bad afternoon outside, some areas of smoke, but not like back on Thursday. There is a bit of a breeze and lower dewpoints. Temperatures running about 8 degrees cooler than normal for what is normally the hottest week of the summer.

No real change to the day 3 outlook for Tuesday for storms. Made a storm total grid for rainfall for Tuesday, heaviest amts on average across the east, where dewpoints fcst to come up quickly into the 70s on Tuesday.

More information below.

Tuesday looks similar to what we had yesterday (Saturday) with high PW values, and strong dynamics, as an abnormally deep low tracks just north of the Lower Great Lakes. Already had 2 such deep systems this summer, this would be the third one. Main threat from this will likely be strong storms with the potential for damaging winds. Also heavy rain, but like Saturday, speed of storms would likely limit the risk of widespread hydro problems. Main concern with hydro is having the activity in the same locations as where the rain was on Saturday. Some areas yesterday had 1 to 2 plus inches of rain, while some spots across the north and south had next to nothing. Some areas too wet so far this July, while others are still too dry from the lack of rain in June.

After mid week, temperatures will trend near to a bit below normal, as we head into the end of July.

AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Prevailing VFR is expected through the 18Z TAF period as high pressure slides across the Commonwealth and keeps the weather rain- free.

Patchy radiation fog may develop tonight (mainly clear skies and calm winds), with 6SM BR included for KBFD/KIPT given relatively higher probabilities (10%) of lower visibilities on the 12Z HREF.

Skies will remain hazy due to a light amount of smoke that was brought southward behind yesterday's cold front, primarily above the surface. Based on output from the HRRR/RRFS models (which have the ability to model smoke), this smoke will linger through at least tomorrow while still being too light to bring visibility restrictions.

Outlook...

Tue-Wed...Restrictions possible in showers/t-storms with cold FROPA expected between Tuesday/Wednesday. T-storms more likely on Tuesday, with lingering showers possible Wednesday.

Thu-Fri...VFR Conditions.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Monday night for PAZ024- 033.