textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Trimmed afternoon dewpoints/RH Tuesday-Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry spell through late week precedes return of summer warmth and increasing rain risk for the first weekend of June.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry spell through late week precedes return of summer warmth and increasing rain risk for the first weekend of June.

The recent stretch of dry weather continues through Friday. A very dry airmass in place this evening, with dewpoints mainly in the 30s to lower 40s. Unlike last night, VAD winds not from the east, no real breeze off the ocean or bay, and no inverted trough, thus less support for isolated showers this evening. So far I have not noted any showers on the radar as of mid evening.

Recent models runs have left Friday dry at this pt. This is in line with the fcst from the last few days.

Flow will remain from the north into Thursday. The warmer air will be advected from the northwest later in the week.

More information below.

A shift in the pattern will bring rising temperatures and humidity levels for late week with summer conditions returning into the first weekend of June. Max temps climb above early June climo into the 75-85F range on Thursday followed by widespread 80-90F readings fcst Friday and Saturday (most likely warmest days).

An approaching cold front from the Lower Great Lakes will bring an increasing chance for scattered showers/t-storms Saturday into Sunday (max POPs on Sunday). The front is fcst to become quasi stationary to the south of the MD line early next week.

The proximity of the front along with low level flow shifting to the east/southeast will likely result in unsettled conditions and lower temperatures (near to slightly below normal) into early next week.

The best chance to remain dry next week will be from Monday into next Friday.

AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

High pressure centered over the Great Lakes this evening will drift slowly southeastward and pass overhead on Wednesday, maintaining dry weather and VFR conditions across Central PA through the TAF period.

Lingering cumulus are dissipating quickly this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Some high cloudiness willl continue to pass overhead into the overnight hours.

High pressure will pass overhead on Wednesday, which will lead to generally cloud-free skies areawide.

Outlook...

Wed-Fri...VFR with no significant weather expected. Any nighttime fog will be limited. Winds will begin to take on a greater westerly component Thursday into Friday.

Sat...VFR conds favored, with brief restrictions possible in late-day -SHRA.

Sat night-Sun...Restrictions possible in more widespread SHRA/TSRA.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.