textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No large changes from recent days. Still a marginal risk of strong to severe storms across the north and west today. Main change was the flash flood watch for the remaining far northwest counties has expired as of 4 am.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and storms tapering off this morning but more expected later this afternoon into this evening. Showers ending Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers and storms tapering off this morning but more expected later this afternoon into this evening. Showers ending Monday morning.

Heaviest rain since yesterday morning has been largely west of our area. The main issue earlier was Elk Co. Back edge of the heavier rain is pulling to the east, thus expect most of the activity to end from west to east by mid to late morning.

Clarion river running high but expected to remain below FS. Watching Beech Creek for a small band of moving across the office now. Another small cluster of heavier showers just brushing far southeast Lancaster Co.

Focus later will be the potential for more showers and storms with the cold front, mainly later this afternoon into this evening. Best dynamics look to be across the northwest.

Cooler and drier after early Monday.

AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

A corridor of locally heavy showers associated with a passing trough will gradually press eastward across central Pennsylvania overnight and into Sunday morning. Organized shower activity is expected to be east of our area by around 12Z, though spotty additional showers may be possible given abundant moisture in place (PWATs of around 1.5-2" around daybreak, particularly across the Susquehanna Valley). Moreover, periods of IFR to locally LIFR are likely areawide through Sunday morning given low-level moisture and light winds in place. Lightning cannot be ruled out in any stronger showers that develop overnight, with MUCAPE values of around 500-750 J/kg across central Pennsylvania, though deep warm cloud layer and tall/skinny CAPE profile will favor rainfall efficiency.

Slow improvements to flight conditions are expected through Sunday afternoon as low-level moisture lingers behind the main swath of shower activity. Cloud cover will gradually break up heading into the afternoon, with a period of clearing possible ahead of a cold front which will be approaching from the NW. This cold front may spark a line of late-afternoon showers with embedded thundershowers over NW PA (KBFD), with any thunderstorms trending towards showers as the front moves over KJST/KAOO/KUNV/KIPT in the evening, with only spotty light showers expected as the front passes over KMDT/KLNS overnight. Flow will shift from westerly to northwesterly behind the front, with post-frontal winds of around 5-10 kts helping to mitigate against fog development, though scattered stratocumulus may bring intermittent MVFR to perhaps IFR ceilings (primarily for upslope/intermountain terminals, KBFD/KJST/KUNV/KIPT).

Outlook...

Sun...Early MVFR/IFR and moderate rainshowers across the state. Additional SHRA/TSRA in the afternoon.

Mon...Primarily VFR conditions, with some potential for afternoon SHRA/TSRA.

Tue-Thur...Mainly VFR with a showers possible over NW PA.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.