textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Increased winds, increased PoPs (NW only), and decreased dewpoints on Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Considerable cool down into the last weekend of March followed by resurgence of Spring warmth to kick off April

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Considerable cool down into the last weekend of March followed by resurgence of Spring warmth to kick off April

A raw northerly wind/low level CAA will direct noticeably cooler air into CPA today with daytime highs in the 35-55F range (north to south) or 25-35 degrees lower than Thursday. Precipitation is now largely south of the Mason-Dixon Line and clouds - though stubborn so far - should ever so slowly erode away as high pressure builds in later today and into Saturday.

A benign weather pattern is expected for much of the weekend thanks to seasonably strong sfc high pressure migrating eastward from the Midwest. The passage of an upper level trough late tonight into early Saturday could trigger some lake enhanced showers over the northern tier, but the sensible weather on the whole will be chilly and uneventful to start the last weekend of March.

Some uncertainty remains as far as how much cloud cover and how many snow showers will emerge on Saturday with a fairly chilly airmass overhead. Sufficient instability will provide enough lift for stratocumulus and scattered snow showers, especially across the northeast, but particularly dry air above the boundary layer could just as easily mix down and limit cloud cover/snow potential. More cloud cover would keep dewpoints up and limit any potential for fire weather concerns. On the other hand, more clearing would mean deeper mixing, gustier winds, lower dewpoints, and higher temperatures. The latter scenario could lead to an elevated risk of wildfire spread on Saturday with RH values dipping below 30 percent. The Bureau of Forestry indicates that fuels (leaves/grasses/etc.) are moist enough to prevent significant fire weather concerns, but please use caution if planning to burn any debris this weekend.

As we head into next week, all model signals point to a resurgence of Spring warmth to close out the month and kick off April. An anomalous ridge of high pressure will shift from the western US to the east coast and bring a prolonged stretch of southwesterly flow. This will support temperatures in the 60s and 70s for the middle of next week. As the western US ridge is replaced by a deep trough, severe weather chances will increase across the Plains. This will lead to a resurgence of moisture and a fairly active/rainy/stormy pattern in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic through Easter weekend. Warm & wet looks like the theme for Central PA for the first couple weeks of April. Spring growth should commence with haste over the next few weeks.

AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As an upper shortwave trough and associated sfc pressure trough approach tonight, winds will shift to be more northwesterly with wind speeds increasing to 10-15 kts gusting 20-25 kts. Breezy conditions will last much of Saturday. Conditions will generally remain VFR through the TAF period, but a couple brief periods of MVFR cigs can not be ruled out at JST and AOO (less than 20 pct chance) as areas of stratocu form and then dissipate across the Laurels overnight. Another batch of more widespread clouds will come down from the NW into BFD by 12-15z, during which time there is a 40 pct chance of MVFR cigs at BFD. Otherwise this batch of clouds is expected to remain above MVFR levels and break up as it moves to the south and east. Skies trend toward SKC by 21z Sat. Outlook...

Sun...VFR. Winds shift to S-SW.

Mon...SCT -SHRA with restrictions poss, mainly W.

Tue...Chance -SHRA, slight chc TSRA west.

Wed...NMRS SHRA with TSRA poss. Cold fropa.

CLIMATE

A daily record rainfall of 0.58 inches was set at Altoona yesterday. This broke the previous record of 0.57 inches set back in 1978.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.