textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Nudged dewpoints down slightly today and Sat. * Next rain may not be for another day past previous expectations.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Fire weather concerns today

2) Dry and mild conditions to start November

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Fire weather concerns today

It has been almost two weeks since measurable rainfall has been observed across Central PA. A cold front has already passed through about a third of the state, and will finished sweeping through the rest of the state this morning. The few light rain showers should dry up shortly, probably before sunrise. It will turn breezy in the wake of the cold front with low afternoon RH values (M30s - M40s %) and max gusts forecast in the 20-30 mph range. These conditions will likely result in an elevated risk of wildfire spread with PA Bureau of Forestry partners indicating fuels are sufficiently dry/cured. Although relative humidity values will remain low (probably lowest on Saturday) through the weekend, the wind will be much lighter. Even still, individuals should limit activities that could start a fire. 99% of wildfires in Pennsylvania are caused by humans!

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Dry and mild conditions to start November

High pressure will control the weather The latest model guidance indicates the dry weather will last for longer than previous cycles did. While PoPs rise into the chance range (30-50%) for Wed, they do reach 60% on Thursday.

AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR continues across much of Central and NW PA with varying amount of stratocu and altocu clouds streaming east in a weak low-mid level warm advection pattern ahead of a weak cold front. Periods of MVFR cigs will occur at KBFD into early this afternoon as llvl moisture off Lake Erie is lifted over the higher terrain. Locally dense fog will occur through the rest of the overnight across portions of the Lower Susq Valley where skies will stay mostly clear with near calm wind.

LLWS will be present until around sunrise today at all airfields with generally light to near calm sfc wind. As vertical mixing increases in the wake of the aforementioned cold front during the late morning through the afternoon hours, NW wind gusts in the upper teens to low 20s (KTS) will be mixed down to the sfc.

VFR will follow in all areas during the afternoon and Friday night, though a return back to high end MVFR is expected at KBFD after 23Z Friday.

Outlook...

Sat-Tue...A.M. valley fog; otherwise VFR.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.