textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Winter Weather Advisory expired at 1PM * Lowered Max temps and raised Min temps this weekend

KEY MESSAGES

1) Breezy and colder weekend with rain and snow showers downwind of Lake Erie

2) Another extended stretch of dry and seasonal weather next week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Breezy and colder weekend with rain and snow showers downwind of Lake Erie

Another vorticity lobe currently over NW PA per satellite imagery will swing through the mean trough across CPA and drive a reinforcing shot of cold air advection (CAA) to the southeast or downwind of Lake Erie. The CAA along with a more favorable W/NW low level wind trajectory will promote lake effect precip this weekend across the Northwest Allegheny Plateau and Laurel Highlands. Snow accumulations will generally be less than an inch and limited to the higher terrain, though isolated amounts of up to 2 inches will be possible by Sunday morning in areas that see the most persistent snow bands. Brisk winds also through the weekend will add a winter-like chill factor with max gusts in the 20-30 mph range.

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KEY MESSAGE 3: Another extended stretch of dry and seasonal weather next week

Lake effect rain and snow showers come to an end by Monday morning as an upper level ridge builds into the region. High pressure at the surface and aloft will provide dry conditions with mainly clear skies for next week along with moderating temperatures. Highs should reach the 55-65F range by the second half of next week or +10-15 degrees above the historical average for mid November.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Gusty NNW winds will begin to die down for the night within the next hour or two. But, as the flow in the 2-10kft layer backs a bit more behind the upper low, moving to the east, lake effect precip should begin to get into BFD. But, the fetch is still not all that favorable. BFD could see a gradual lowering of the cig to IFR overnight as snow becomes ocnl, but otherwise will remain in MVFR. This IFR drop would occur around sunrise and is currently hinted at in the TAF. The cross-lake flow becomes very favorable on Sat (and for the next 24 hrs) for a long band or two to drop off LH and across LE and slide right up into Somerset and Cambria counties. Thus, JST will be at risk for much more IFR/LIFR vs even BFD Sat into Sun mid-day. Just how bad the visby and cigs get there will be dependent on the exact position of that band (or bands) with the Huron connection. At this point, we'll put in mentions of IFR.

Elsewhere, it should stay MVFR or better at AOO, UNV and IPT with only a flake or two of snow this weekend. MDT and LNS look more likely VFR. The clouds could lower to MVFR at some point Sat in those SE terminals.

Later Sunday, the lake moisture goes away while the inversion lowers, too. VFR follows.

Outlook...

Sun...VFR, gusts NW 15-25KT.

Mon-Wed...VFR.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.