textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Reduced snowfall forecast early Sunday for the northern tier * Wintry mix focus shifting to Tuesday

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mild end to February/meteorological winter 2025-2026

2) Quick shot of light precip early Saturday and Sunday

3) Wintry mix likely Tuesday followed by periods of rain with temperatures trending above average for early March

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Mild end to February/meteorological winter 2025-2026

Mild afternoon in progress for late February. Expect an even warmer end to the month/meteorological winter on Saturday with some sites touching 60F east of the mtns along the MD line. Guidance may not be bullish enough on how warm it could get.

Clear skies early tonight could foster radiational fog/zf in the central and eastern valleys early Saturday morning. Persistence from last night and hires model signal would favor the LSV.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Quick shots of light precip early Saturday and Sunday morning

Moisture-starved cold front could bring a brief period of light rain to the NW mtns early Saturday morning. A second and more potent cold front/upper level shortwave will bring another shot of light snow/rain across the northern tier early Sunday morning. Snow amounts were cut in half in the latest cycle with max amounts around 1 inch or so near/along the US-6 corridor with a coating to <1" as far south as I-80.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Wintry mix likely Tuesday followed by periods of rain with temperatures trending above average for early March

March comes in more like a lion vs. lamb, but just a short wintry roar before springlike conditions take over.

Modified arctic high migrating southeast from the Great Lakes now provides a chilly an dry day on Monday. This setup favors CAD/overrunning wintry mix scenario for Tuesday as moisture spreads north/east into retreating cold sector. Despite its magnitude 1040mb, the high appears somewhat transient which suggests a progressive wintry mix to rain ptype transition from SW to NE by later Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Timing will likely shift around, but the main themes from next Wednesday through the first weekend of March will be increasingly mild with periods of rain. A sizable and springlike warming trend appears to have staying power based on the 6-10/8-14 day CPC temp outlooks.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR flying under mainly clear skies into tonight. A brief period of light rain and MVFR cigs could impact KBFD early Saturday morning as a sfc cold front tracks eastward from the Lower Great Lakes. We maintained the PROB30 for -RA KBFD and included period of MVFR cigs behind the front/wind shift from 200 to 300 degrees. We also kept LLWS at KBFD and KJST in response to LLJ. Farther to the south and east, patchy fog may develop with the best signal or odds for IFR conditions around KMDT and KLNS. Widespread VFR expected by 18Z Saturday.

Outlook...

Sun...Restrictions possible in rain/snow early.

Mon...VFR likely.

Tue...Restrictions likely in wintry mix changing to rain.

Wed...Restrictions possible in periods of rain.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.