textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Recharacterized POP qualifier from probabilistic to coverage wording this afternoon * Marginal severe t-storm risk (level 1/5) added to the far northwest and southeastern portions of CPA for Saturday PM

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periods of light rain/showers through Mother's Day weekend

2) Frost/freeze risk Monday night into Tuesday morning over the western and central Alleghenies

3) Cool/unsettled pattern through much of next week; sizable warmup on the horizon? into third week of May

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Periods of light rain/showers through Mother's Day weekend

Isolated to scattered rain showers will continue across the northern 2/3 of CPA (mainly north of US-22) into the evening. A zone of steadier light rain is fcst to pivot over the area later tonight into Saturday morning. The steadier light rain Saturday morning tapers back to a more showery/limited rain duration type pattern through the afternoon with an isolated strong t-storm possible in the NW and SE corners of the CWA (newly introduced MRGL risk SWO from SPC D2 1730Z update). A few showers linger into Sunday with primary rain signal targeting the southeast half of CPA late Sunday night through Monday morning. While there are plenty of rain "chances" through Mother's Day weekend, it won't be a total washout with total rainfall hard-pressed to exceed 0.50 inch over 2-3 day period. Rain ends/shifts to the east by Monday evening.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Frost/freeze risk Monday night into Tuesday morning over the western and central Alleghenies

Confidence is increasing for another frost/freeze situation Monday night into early Tuesday morning over the western and central Alleghenies (to the northwest of I-81). No precip expected during this time.

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KEY MESSAGE 3: Cool/unsettled pattern through much of next week; sizable warmup on the horizon? into the 3rd week of May

Mean troughing keeps cool/unsettled pattern in place through much of next week with below normal temperatures and several opportunities for rain next Wednesday-Friday.

There are signs of a pattern shift starting next weekend (~May 15-16) that returns more typical/warmer late Spring conditions to central PA heading into Memorial Day or the "unofficial" start of Summer.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions will continue through the rest of the afternoon and into the first part of the night. Widely scattered showers over northern and western PA are most likely to impact BFD, UNV, and IPT, though a few showers cannot be completely ruled out farther to the south as well. West-southwesterly wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots will continue into the evening before decreasing after sunset. A few gusts to 35 knots will be possible.

Rain becomes more widespread overnight and into tomorrow morning from northwest to southeast. Ceiling and visibility restrictions are likely to develop at all sites except MDT and LNS, with IFR most likely at BFD. The LAMP suggests IFR conditions will be more widespread than that, but HREF probabilities of IFR are very low farther to the south and east and model soundings show dry low levels preventing the ceilings from dropping below 1000 feet.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Saturday afternoon and evening across northwest PA ahead of a cold front. Confidence on the timing and placement of these storms is low.

Outlook...

Sun...VFR favored early, with restrictions becoming more likely in the afternoon as another cold front moves SE. SHRA with isolated TSRA possible as cold front passes through.

Mon-Tue...VFR conditions expected to prevail.

Wed...Restrictions possible with rain.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.