textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No significant changes

KEY MESSAGES

1) Seasonable Warmup through Veterans Day

2) Late week rain and potential high elevation snow accumulation

3) Windy and colder Friday through the weekend

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonable Warmup through Veterans Day

Mostly sunny, breezy and warmer today with max temps in the mid 50s to upper 60s or +8-15 degrees higher than Monday. Max wind gusts 20-30 mph from the west. Low humidity and breezy conditions could result in an elevated risk of wildfire spread across south central PA this afternoon (Lower Ridge/Valley and Southeast districts). Pleasant and seasonably warm conditions continue for Veterans Day with highs +5-10 degrees above the historical average and more clouds than sun.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Late week rain and potential high elevation snow accumulation

Low pressure tracking through the Ohio Valley will bring periods of rain to CPA late Wednesday night into Thursday. Rainfall amounts are in the 0.10-0.50" range ending 00Z Friday. Fcst highs Thursday in the mid 40s/50s are 10 degrees lower than Wednesday.

A cold air injection associated with an intensifying upper trough over the Eastern U.S. should allow for rain and higher elevation snow Thursday night into Friday. Areas most likely to see the first snow accumulation of the season are in the Endless Mtns/Poconos, Northern Tier, NW Alleghenies, and Laurel Highlands (generally north & west of I-99/I-80). The pattern eventually transitions to a lake effect/upslope precip event over the weekend with additional snow accumulation possible.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Windy and colder Friday through the weekend

Gusty winds and below average temperatures will make for a rather chilly stretch from Friday through the weekend. Highs in the 35-50F range with a wind chill factor. For context, its been about 200 days since it was this cold during the day.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

A warm front pushing east overnight will lead to the retreat of the stratocu into New York State through 09z. Gradient slackens and sfc wind backs overnight. Eastern sites go light. Low level jet may be just strong enough as the warm front moves across the area to make LLWS for 3-6 hrs at the 4 western terminals.

A quick-moving shortwave trough zips by Tuesday, picking up the wind again, but they should not be quite as gusty as today/Monday. Very similar conditions with variable clouds - mainly VFR - are expected Tues & Wed, although there could be some fog and low stratus Wed AM as a stationary front meanders across the northern tier.

Outlook...

Wed PM-Thu...Conditions deteriorating to IFR and spotty LIFR clouds, -RA, FG.

Fri...IFR clouds. -SHRA turning to -SHSNRA. LIFR, mainly N & W. Gusty NW flow.

Fri PM...-SHSN, occnl IFR NW. -SHRA, MVFR SE. Gusty NW wind.

Sat...Improving, but still gusty with MVFR clouds BFD/JST. VFR elsewhere.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.