textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Increase POPs into the likely category through the Mid Morning across Sullivan County PA.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A few bands of mainly light rain showers will occur across the North-central Mountains, Middle Susq Valley and Western Poconos today as low pressure moves slowly along the southern New England coast. Otherwise, expect a drying trend to wrap up the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: A few bands of mainly light rain showers will occur across the North-central Mountains, Middle Susq Valley and Western Poconos today as low pressure moves slowly along the southern New England coast. Otherwise, expect a drying trend to wrap up the week.

Another, relatively weak and compact. mid-upr level vort max (or two) will be moving south across the eastern part of the CWA today - on the back side of a slowly departing mid/upper level low. These features will bring a few relatively narrow bands of light to briefly mdt rain showers (and perhaps a low-topped tsra this afternoon) to our far eastern CWA - East of a KIPT to KMUI line.

Across the remainder of Central PA and the Western Alleghenies, a northerly 850 mb flow (~25 kft) with temps averaging around +13C will be slightly under the threshold for Lake Effect clouds/showers, considering Lake Ontario and Lake Erie temps in the low to mid 70s. So, cloud cover in this part of the state should be flat and scattered. Expect dry conditions for Friday and Saturday with sfc dewpoints sliding by a few deg F. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Saturday night into Sunday ahead of an approaching shortwave, but there are still timing differences regarding this feature.

AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

The cloud deck over the region continues to persist as the upper low moves over southern New England. VFR is expected to prevail through daybreak for all terminals. Fog potential overall looks fairly minimal. After 12Z Thursday, HREF model guidance outlines an increasing 3000-5000ft AGL cloud deck that will bring some lower end (< 30%) potential for MVFR ceilings primarily across eastern airfields (IPT, MDT, LNS), but predominantly VFR conds is the more likely outcome. Low clouds will begin to dissipate tonight as drier air moves in and the upper low moves to the east.

Outlook...

Fri...Patchy AM fog possible, otherwise mainly VFR.

Sat...Mainly VFR early with increasing chances of SHRA/TSRA later in the evening hours. Restrictions possible.

Sun...More widespread SHRA with PM TSRA possible, increased chances of restrictions in heavier SHRA/TSRA.

Mon...AM SHRA with PM TSRA possible. Restrictions possible, especially SE where chances for SHRA/TSRA are higher.

CLIMATE

Daily maximum rainfall records were set at Johnstown and Bradford on Tuesday, Jul 28.

JST: 1.63 inches of rain broke the record of 1.41 inches set in 1923.

BFD: 3.89 inches of rain broke the record of 2.50 inches set in 1981.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.