textproduct: State College

SYNOPSIS

* Another brisk December morning will give way to a warming trend today through Thursday. * Winds will pick up by midweek with gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible at times from Wednesday into Friday with fast moving frontal systems. * Rain showers Thursday/Thursday night, perhaps tapering off as some snow early Friday, followed by colder weather for the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

Another brisk start to the day with temperatures in the single digits and low teens across all of Pennsylvania under mostly clear skies.

After a prolonged stretch of below average temperatures (nearly 3 weeks to be exact), upper level troughing will finally give way to a prevailing ridge across the eastern US through the end of the week. As a result, a west to southwest flow of milder air will moving into the area later today. The airmass is quite dry, so no precipitation is expected. Temperatures will "soar" into the mid 30s across southwest PA this afternoon. With only some thin high clouds, filtered sunshine will feel great in combination with the warmer temperatures.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

A weak northern stream shortwave will bring increasing clouds tonight, especially across the north and west. Wednesday will be milder and mainly dry. A cold front may clip the far north, but guidance is largely dry. Winds may gust above 30 mph during the afternoon in the north and west thanks to a tightening surface pressure gradient.

Winds shift back to the southwest on Thursday and become gusty at times. Some showers later in the day, but snowpack is not real dense, and it has been dry too, so not seeing any issues with the amounts of rain. Peak temps of this warming trend - in the 40s to low 50s with departures averaging 8-12 deg F above normal, will occur on Thursday.

The rain could end late as some snow across the west and north. See long term section below.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As noted above, the showers could mix with or change to some snow, before tapering off during the morning. A few flurries or snow showers could linger across the far west and northwest, but most areas should clear out by mid to late morning on Friday. Highs Friday will be back into the 30s with some lower to mid 40s southeast.

The biggest story on Friday will be the potential for strong to damaging wind gusts. Building high pressure in the southeast US will interact with the potent and deepening cyclone crossing the Great Lakes to produce wind gusts exceeding 40mph Friday afternoon in the wake of the cold front. Anomalously strong wind fields could result in fairly widespread gusts of 40-50mph across the northeast US Friday afternoon. Wind Advisories may be needed for at least a portion of the area.

A series of warm fronts move back to the northeast for the weekend, so some chance of some precipitation. Some mixed precipitation could occur, mainly across the north. Amounts expected to be on the light side, with some spots perhaps not getting anything.

Some variation between the GFS and EC but both have 500 mb heights well above normal across the southern Great Plains into the gulf area. For the northeast states, this may taper the cycle of abnormally cold some. Harder call on the location of precipitation as one heads out in time.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

A stubborn deck of MVFR stratus clouds over KBFD will gradually lift north this morning, giving way to VFR conditions for the rest of the day. Elsewhere, VFR conditions prevail with a light to moderate south-southwest wind as high pressure builds in.

A fast-moving and weak system will clip the northern tier of PA Tuesday night into Wednesday. MVFR ceilings are likely at KBFD and possible at UNV, JST, and AOO. A few rain showers could affect KBFD as well. As strong winds move overhead and winds stay relatively light at the surface, LLWS may be a concern later tonight into Wednesday morning at KBFD, KJST, KAOO, and KUNV.

Outlook...

Wed...MVFR cigs NW half. -SHSN VC BFD. VFR elsewhere.

Thu...Widespread SHRA occasionally reducing conditions to IFR. May end as a brief period of snow in the west. CFROPA Thurs night.

Fri...Gusty W wind (40+ kts possible). MVFR w/SCT SHSN NW. Mainly VFR elsewhere.

Sat...MVFR-IFR BFD in SCT -SHSN. MVFR cigs.

CLIMATE

Astronomical winter (solstice) begins at 10:03 a.m. on Sunday, December 21st.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.