textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Severe weather has ended, but a few strong and training storms will continue to impact the SW zones of our CWA (mainly Somerset and Bedford Counties) through 07Z.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A few lingering storms will train across the Laurel Highlands through early tonight.

2) Warmth surges again next week with a classic summerlike pattern expected - though uncertainty remains.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: A few lingering storms will train across the Laurel Highlands through early tonight.

Deep layer subsidence behind the earlier area of strong to severe TSRA and the exit of the best upper level diffluence to the east will allow nothing more than a few showers across portions of the Central Mtns and Susq Valley overnight. The exception will be for the next 3-4 hours across the Laurel Highlands where slight backing of the mean 925-850 mb flow and a WNW-ESE theat-E ridge will support some training showers and Sub-severe TSRA.

This theta-e ridge and larger scale forcing associated with the right entrance region of an upper level jetlet, will sink south and east of the region within a few hours after midnight.

look for variable amounts of clouds and still a light west to southwest breeze overnight that will lead to rather mild temps in the 60s across much of Central and Southern PA. Late night timing of a cfropa through Northern PA will result in mid temps in the upper 50s there.

moist ground and the light wind will create areas of 1/2Sm fog late tonight into early Sunday.

--------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Warmth surges again next week with a classic summerlike pattern expected - though uncertainty remains.

Following a modest cool down on Monday, emerging model data continues to signal above normal temperatures for the rest of next week. Even the cool down on Monday will see above normal high temperatures for most of the area. Long range models diverge on potential solutions toward the end of next week. A prevailing ridge in place over the eastern US will ensure above normal temperatures (80s and 90s), but models diverge in how they handle an upper closed low moving out of the South Central US up towards the Great Lakes. Latest NBM has 20-40 pct PoPs covering at least a portion of central PA each day Tuesday through the end of the coming week, but realistically much of that time period may end up dry if the unsettled weather with the aforementioned upper disturbance passes to our west.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Skies have mostly cleared out across central Pennsylvania this evening, with cloud cover mainly confined to where SHRA/TSRA is present. In the near-term, will have to monitor SHRA as it tracks closer to UNV; however, not expecting any widespread restrictions due to precipitation overnight. Restrictions will be possible with fog formation, mainly across northern and western Pennsylvania. Current conditions at JST/IPT outline lower ceilings that are likely to continue throughout the overnight period, with current ECONUS Nighttime Microphysics outlining dendritic valley fog closer to BFD. General trends continue to highlight ~08-09Z Sunday for onset of restrictions at BFD so have continued to highlight this potential in the 06Z TAFs with moderate-to-high (~70-80%) confidence. Elsewhere, fog formation looks less likely with the presence of a light breeze throughout much of the overnight period; however, cannot rule out brief restrictions at UNV closer to daybreak with winds trending towards calm in the 08-12Z Sunday timeframe. Fog begins to mix out after sunrise quickly with higher sun angle/warming temperatures, with widespread VFR conditions continuing through 06Z Monday.

Outlook...

Mon-Tue...VFR favored outside of isolated morning fog. Restrictions possible in -SHRA/-TSRA early Sun & again late Tue.

Wed-Thu...Restrictions possible in -SHRA/-TSRA.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.