textproduct: State College
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
No significant changes.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Prime stretch of Fall weather continues today and Saturday.
2) Rain and breezy conditions from Isaias arrive Saturday night and continue on Sunday.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Prime stretch of Fall weather continues today and Saturday.
High pressure remains in control of our weather and will continue to deliver dry conditions for Friday and Saturday. After some patchy valley fog this morning, mostly sunny skies will slowly give way to increasing clouds later this evening. There could be quite a picturesque sunset tonight. Saturday will be similar temperatures to today (mid 60s to low 70s) but much more cloudy. High clouds streaming in ahead of Isaias will filter the sunshine and be accompanied by gradually lowering cloud bases Saturday afternoon and evening.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain and breezy conditions from Isaias arrive Saturday night and continue on Sunday.
The northeast edge of Isaias' rain shield will arrive in southwest PA Saturday evening and lift northeast through Sunday morning. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur early Sunday morning and then give way to scattered rain showers through the rest of the day and overnight .Total rainfall amounts are generally forecast in the 0.50-1.50 inch range over a 24-36hr duration with a low risk of potential flooding impacts. A tight pressure gradient around Isaias's weakening remnants will deliver wind gusts 35-40 mph over the ridgetops in the Laurel Highlands on Sunday.
AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions are expected overnight under mainly clear skies with light winds. Patchy valley fog may form, but the very dry air mass should limit the overall extent of fog. Impacts at TAF sites appear very unlikely, with the HREF showing a less than 10 percent chance of visibility dropping below 6SM across all of Central PA. VFR conditions continue through the day on Friday as high pressure remains in control. Winds will be out of the west-northwest at 5 to 10 knots. The next chance for restrictions will likely not be until Sunday when the remnants of Hurricane Isaias bring moisture and rain over the region.
Outlook...
Sat...VFR conditions expected.
Sun-Mon...Restrictions likely in lower ceilings and rain.
Tue...VFR favored, though a FROPA may bring restrictions in -SHRA. AM fog possible.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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