textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Any forecast changes were very small compared to previous updates, with confidence continuing to increase in a significant warmup next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Fire weather concerns will still be at play to start the weekend, although wind gust potential is expected to decrease with time on Saturday.

2) Much warmer temperatures are foreseen next week, with the highest chance for hit and miss showers and thunderstorms over northern and western sections of the Commonwealth.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Fire weather concerns will still be at play to start the weekend, although wind gust potential is expected to decrease with time on Saturday.

The afternoon featured gusty winds and low humidity levels, given the low dewpoints and warm temperatures.

As we head into this evening, a cold front will continue to move to the southeast, with a wind shift line ahead of the showers on the radar.

While light amounts of rainfall are expected, some wetting of the ground is expected, with lower temperatures and higher relative humidity levels as well.

For Saturday, looking at cooler temperatures and less wind overall.

Given low-level dry advection and still some isallobaric forcing early Saturday, we could briefly see near or sub-30% RH values during the midday hours, along with locally breezy conditions (gusts 15-20 mph). However, on Saturday afternoon, as the lower-level pressure gradient relaxes, winds should slacken with time.

On Sunday, isolated showers could impact the far northern tier, as some southwesterly moisture return develops in the emerging warm air advection pattern. Most areas, though, will see no rain drops at all.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Much warmer temperatures are foreseen next week, with the best chance for hit and miss showers and thunderstorms over northern and western sections of the Commonwealth.

On the large-scale, our ensemble prediction systems are in good agreement that a mean upper-level trough will set up shop across the western CONUS, with downstream upper ridging taking hold from the Gulf states up the eastern seaboard. This will likely set the stage for a notable warming trend, with daily highs ranging from the 70s-mid 80s across central PA from Tuesday onward.

Drought impacted sections of south- central and southeast PA are not likely to see much in the way of rainfall next week.

However, there is a lot of spread in model solutions as one gets further out in time, so more in the way of rainfall and a return to much colder weather could occur as one heads into late next weekend or early the week later. Also the early green up of fruit trees etc. if temperatures swing to far back the other way after a bit of summer heat, this could lead to damage. Been a Spring for frequent temperature swings.

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AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Any lingering showers will continue to decrease in coverage into the early morning hours. IFR/LIFR ceilings will persist at BFD and JST through the rest of the night, while MVFR ceilings will continue to impact AOO, UNV, and IPT. VFR conditions are expected elsewhere, though some guidance suggests a brief period of MVFR ceilings is possible at MDT and LNS prior to 09Z. Skies gradually clear out later this morning, giving way to VFR conditions under mainly clear skies for the rest of the TAF period. Northwest winds will be sustained around 10 knots with gusts of 15 to 20 knots possible during the afternoon. Winds will become lighter during the evening, decreasing to less than 5 knots after sunset.

Outlook...

Sun...VFR anticipated.

Mon-Wed...VFR most of the time, but brief restrictions possible in hit and miss showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the north and west.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.