textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Trimmed afternoon dewpoints/RH Wednesday & Thursday

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry spell through late week precedes brief return of midsummer warmth and increasing rain risk for the first weekend of June

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry spell through late week precedes brief return of midsummer warmth and increasing rain risk for the first weekend of June

The ongoing stretch of dry weather continues through Friday. Rising temperatures with moderate humidity levels remain on track for late week with midsummer warmth returning to CPA into the first weekend of June. Max temps climb +5-10F above climo into the 75-85F range on Thursday followed by widespread 80-90F readings Friday and Saturday.

A wavy and slow moving cold front sliding southeastward from the Great Lakes will bring an increasing chance for showers/t-storms with locally heavy downpours Saturday into Sunday (max POPs on Sunday). Most guidance has trended drier on the margin for early next week with elevated uncertainty in the precip pattern. Confidence is higher that temperatures cool off Sunday through Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

High pressure center passes close to Central PA today maintaining dry weather, winds mostly out of the north, and VFR conditions through the TAF period. Convective cu and wind gusts are not in the forecast given the dry air and suppression from the high pressure system so skies will be mostly clear Wednesday say for some passing cirrus.

Outlook...

Wed-Fri...VFR with no significant weather expected. Any nighttime fog will be limited. Winds will begin to take on a greater westerly component Thursday into Friday.

Sat...VFR conds favored, with brief restrictions possible in late-day -SHRA.

Sat night-Sun...Restrictions possible in more widespread SHRA/TSRA.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.