textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Slight risk severe weather outlook area shifted a bit eastward to US-219 corridor for Saturday afternoon/evening

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cloudy, soggy, and foggy conditions precede the first severe thunderstorm risk of 2026 on Saturday afternoon/evening

2) Significant Springtime warming Saturday through Wednesday followed by seasonal moderation/cool down into mid-March

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Cloudy, soggy, and foggy conditions precede the first severe T-storm risk of 2026 on Saturday afternoon/evening

Another day of low clouds, fog and spotty light rain in the cool wedge pattern - the sluggish transition toward a much warmer Springtime pattern drags on. Fog is dense in a few locations, but not as widespread as the last couple of overnight to early morning periods. Motorists should use caution and be prepared for changing visibility. The best model QPF signal for light rain is likely over the south central Alleghenies this afternoon.

The cool wedge influence continues into Saturday with ~25 degree temp gradient from southwest to northeast PA. The 24-hr max temp for Saturday will likely be reached shortly before 12AM Sunday in the eastern zones.

The first severe T-storm risk for CPA in 2026 still on track for Saturday afternoon and evening. The primary threat area and greatest risk (level 2 out of 5) will be focused from the Upper Ohio Valley into western PA with the eastern extent along the Allegheny Front. The likelihood of increasing stability to the east of the mtns will greatly reduce the severe storm risk across the central and especially eastern portions of the fcst area. A linear convective mode is favored with a potential line of strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds tracking eastward from Ohio into western PA late in the afternoon or evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Significant Springtime warming Saturday through Wednesday followed by seasonal moderation/cool down into mid- March

Cool wedge pattern finally breaks down and allows for a significant springtime warming from Saturday into the middle of next week. Frontal showers exit the area Sunday morning with rain-free conditions likely holding into Tuesday. April to May- like max/min temps fcst +20-30 degrees above the historical average will challenge daily records in some areas Tue/Wed. Cold frontal passage Wed/Thu will bring some rain followed by a seasonable cool down for late in the week into mid-March.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

A meandering frontal boundary and cold air damming in the ridge and valleys of central PA will keep IFR conditions across the area through this forecast period.

Plenty of low level moisture will result in IFR ceilings and patchy LIFR FG through the morning hours. Ceilings will remain near minimums across the area with only isolated areas above 700-900ft. As the sun sets this evening, expect a drop back to solid IFR and LIFR for the overnight hours with some patchy 1/4SM to 1/2SM in FG. Ridgetops will be obscured in the overcast through the period. Winds will remain generally light.

Outlook...

Sat...Restrictions remain possible, especially in the north and east. VFR most likely from KJST south and west, where winds could get gusty in the warm sector. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms likely with cold FROPA.

Sun...Trending towards VFR.

Mon...Restrictions possible as low-level moisture increases.

Tue.. Restrictions possible in the morning due to low-level moisture.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ058.