textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No significant changes

KEY MESSAGES

1) Extended stretch of dry and seasonable weather this week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Extended stretch of dry and seasonable weather this week

Persistent high pressure over the Northeast U.S. will provide an extended stretch of dry and seasonable weather this week. The latest model data shows the dry spell continuing into the final week of October. This rain-free pattern will feature a string of sunny and seasonably warm afternoons with low humidity followed by clear and chilly moonlit nights with areas of frost.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Valley fog has dropped IPT towards VLIFR/LIFR conditions this morning which are likely to continue with higher (~70-80%) confidence through 14Z when dissipation of fog begins to become more likely based on a combination of CONSShort/GLAMP/HREF model guidance. Otherwise, frost will be the main near-term concern with widespread temperatures in the upper 20s to the mid-30s at all airfields. Very high (~90-100%) confidence in VFR conditions across the board after 15Z Monday through at least 06Z Tuesday under the influence of high pressure and generally light winds. Some fog potential again Monday night into Tuesday with signals beginning to hone in on NW PA (BFD) in the 08-12Z Tuesday timeframe; however, confidence remains too low for outright inclusion in the 12Z TAF cycle as BFD can typically struggle to experience longer-duration IFR conditions in this set-up.

Tue...Restrictions are possible in the north and west in the AM due to fog and low stratus. Breezy with N to NE winds gusting to 20 kts.

Wed-Fri...Patchy AM fog and frost possible in the north and west; otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ059-066. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ065.