textproduct: State College
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WHAT HAS CHANGED
* No significant changes
KEY MESSAGES
1) Dry forecast holds for the next 6-7 days
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry forecast holds for the next 6-7 days
We don't see any new evidence in our suite of model guidance to deviate away from our existing rain-free forecast.
A large high pressure system at the surface, along with a ridge axis aloft, will keep the Commonwealth rain-free through the early part of the upcoming work week. We do expect a cold front to drop southward across the region Monday night into early Tuesday, but with only shallow moisture levels to work with, just some patchy cloudiness and no rainfall are the expectations.
After a brief shot of seasonably cool air Tuesday into Wednesday, a warming trend is likely later in the week, along with continued rain-free conditions. At least southern portions of the Commonwealth should pop back into the 70s as we approach next weekend.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Few changes at all to the going package. We did note some return of Atlantic moisture around 9H into the southern tier tonight, and could make SCT-BKN clouds (MVFR/FL020-030) along and S of the MD border. But, the chcs are even lower that they (if they form) would impact any of our terminals. We did mention MVFR- level SCT clouds (not cigs) at JST and AOO.
The only risks for IFR would be fog/low clouds in the usual places (IPT and BFD) overnight/early morning due to radiational/river valley fog. IPT is more likely than BFD to have IFR clouds/fog (60% chc for a few hours late tonight), but IFR cannot be totally ruled out at BFD (30% chc for a brief period).
High pressure will keep things stable until Monday. That is when a cold front drops in from the NW and ushers in a new, just as dry, airmass. Little fanfare (no precip, low clouds, wind, nor visby issues) is expected as it moves across the CWA. Many times, dry fronts are windy fronts. But, it doesn't look to be the case this time. We go right back to nice flying conditions for several more days after the front.
Mon-Thu...VFR prevailing conditions.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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