textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No major changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain and snow showers downwind of Lake Erie gradually taper off today and tonight.

2) Another extended stretch of dry and seasonal weather next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain and snow showers downwind of Lake Erie gradually taper off today and tonight.

Ongoing cold air advection (CAA) downwind of the Lower Great Lakes via W/NW low level wind trajectories will result in scattered lake effect and terrain enhanced rain/snow streamers today. Vertical profiles indicate rather shallow moisture, which should lead to rather brief and weak flurries/drizzle today. High resolution guidance indicates that precipitation should taper off later today and tonight.

It will be another chilly day with widespread cloud cover. Brisk NW winds 15-25 mph will add a winter- like chill factor with daytime temps feeling no better than 30-45 degrees.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Another extended stretch of dry and seasonal weather next week.

Lake effect rain and snow showers come to an end by Monday morning as an upper level ridge builds into the region. Clouds will linger on Monday, but clear out by Tuesday as high pressure at the surface and aloft will provide dry conditions with mainly clear skies and moderating temperatures. Highs should reach the 55-65F range by the second half of next week or +10-15 degrees above the historical average for mid November. Light winds, low humidity, and abundant sunshine will be ideal for any outdoor activities. Whether raking leaves, putting out holiday decorations, or enjoying time outside, it will be an ideal stretch of weather.

With the resumption of a very dry stretch, fire weather concerns could increase as we get later into November and December. Any particularly windy patterns with minimal precipitation could lead to an elevated risk of rapid wildfire spread. The next chance for precipitation looks like it could be the end of next weekend (Sunday) at this point.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Scattered rain and snow showers are most likely to impact BFD and JST this morning, though a few showers could impact UNV as well. Ceilings return to VFR across much of the area by late morning, but BFD and JST likely only improve to MVFR. Showers taper off through the day and should come to an end by late afternoon. MVFR ceilings stick around across the western TAF sites into Monday morning and may expand to AOO, UNV, and possibly IPT once again overnight. West-northwest winds will be sustained at 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots possible.

Outlook...

Mon-Thu...VFR conditions to prevail.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.