textproduct: State College
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* Trending drier into next week
KEY MESSAGES
1) Dry spell through late week precedes brief return of midsummer warmth and increasing rain risk for the first weekend of June 2) Still some uncertainty early next week, but trending drier
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry spell through late week precedes brief return of midsummer warmth and increasing rain risk for the first weekend of June
The ongoing stretch of dry weather continues through Friday. Rising temperatures with moderate humidity levels remain on track for late week with midsummer warmth returning to CPA into the first weekend of June. Max temps climb +5-10F above climo into the 75-85F range on Thursday followed by widespread 80-90F readings Friday and Saturday.
A slow moving cold front sliding southeastward from the Great Lakes will bring an increasing chance for showers/t-storms with locally heavy downpours Saturday into Sunday (max POPs on Sunday).
KEY MESSAGE 2: Still some uncertainty early next week, but still trending drier
Most guidance has trended drier on the margin for early next week with elevated uncertainty in the precip pattern. If the dry trend continues, it would be driven by high pressure nudging south from Canada behind a cold front. Whether it is rainy or dry, confidence is high that temperatures cool off Sunday through Tuesday (either from clouds/rain or a post-cold frontal airmass).
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Ridge of surface high pressure moving across Western PA and WVA early today will maintain control of our weather through the end of the TAF period with VFR conditions and no significant weather expected.
Mainly clear skies (SKC-FEW 250) early this morning will be followed by abundant sunshine mixed with/filtered by just a few flat/pancake cu and some thin high clouds (SCT- BKN250) by midday today.
Winds will be 5-8 KT from west to northwest today as the center of the aforementioned sfc high slides south of Pennsylvania.
Outlook...
Thu night-Fri...VFR with no significant weather expected. Any nighttime fog will be limited.
Sat...VFR conds favored, with brief restrictions possible in late-day -SHRA.
Sat night-Sun...Restrictions possible in more widespread SHRA/TSRA.
Mon...VFR favored with restrictions possible from post-frontal stratocu or lingering -SHRA.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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