textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Minor adjustments to hourly temperatures today into tonight

KEY MESSAGES

1) Light wintry mix with minor ice accumulation brings slippery road conditions and travel/school delays early today

2) Periods of much-needed rain expected from Wednesday through the first weekend of March; wet pattern favored into next week with above-normal rainfall likely

3) Significant springtime warming pattern ramps up from late week into the second week of March

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Light wintry mix with minor ice accumulation brings slippery road conditions and travel/school delays early today

A low-level warm advection regime will sustain light wintry precip as it continues to spread from southwest to northeast across CPA this morning. Some sleet and/or light snow may fall at the onset or on the front-end of precipitation as -2 to -6C max wet bulb temps retreat to the northeast. Light/minor ice accumulation from freezing rain of generally 0.10 of an inch or less is likely across the bulk of Central PA with slightly higher amounts possible - particularly on the southwest Allegheny ridges. Temperatures warm above the freezing mark from southwest to northeast through the afternoon into tonight effectively transitioning ptypes to plain rain. Fog and low stratus may be expansive overnight with lingering areas of light rain and pockets of drizzle.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Periods of much-needed rain expected from Wednesday through the first weekend of March; wet pattern favored into next week with above-normal rainfall likely

On the heels of one of the driest winter seasons on record (see climate section), periods of much needed rainfall are expected from Wednesday through the first weekend of March. The wet pattern is favored to last into the second week of March based on the latest CPC 6-10/8-14 day precip outlooks. Surges of Pacific and Gulf moisture interacting with wavy or slow moving frontal zones is projected to deliver total rainfall amounts between 1 and 3 inches across CPA through next Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Significant springtime warming pattern ramps up from late week into the second week of March

Persistent and amplified Southeast U.S./Atlantic centered upper ridging will promote a significant springtime warming trend from late week into the second week of March. Fcst max and min temperatures will be 15-30 degrees above the historical average Fri-Tue and may challenge daily records.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Low clouds continue to expand northward and will thicken through the night and into the morning, with all TAF sites likely seeing IFR ceilings by 15Z. Steady precipitation will enter from the southwest and will expand to the north and east through the early morning hours. Most of this will fall as freezing rain, though some snow or sleet may initially mix in, mainly to the east of UNV.

High confidence in a prolonged period of IFR or lower conditions for all Central PA TAF sites through Wednesday morning, though JST could see a few hours where ceilings briefly rise to MVFR during the early afternoon.

A 40 to 45 knot southwesterly low-level jet moves into the region this morning and remains overhead into tonight. While the strongest winds are expected to remain above 2000 feet for much of the day, LLWS concerns will develop at at JST, AOO, and UNV for the afternoon and evening.

Outlook...

Wed-Sat...Restrictions at times in periods of rain.

CLIMATE

It was a very dry meteorological winter (Dec-Jan-Feb). Some of our long-term climate stations cracked the top-ten of their driest winter seasons (Dec 1st-Feb 28/29th).

Station Total Precip Rank Period of (inches) (Driest) Record (since) ------------ ------------ -------- -------------- Altoona 4.15 5th 1948 Bradford 4.25 2nd 1957 Harrisburg 6.05 17th 1888 Johnstown 4.93 3rd 1892 Williamsport 5.24 15th 1895 State College 4.52 8th 1893

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ004-005-010>012-045-046-049>053-058. Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ006-037-041-042. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ017>019-025>028-056-057-059-063-065-066. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ024-033>036-064.