textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Raised low temperatures for this morning by a few degrees. * Slight increase to PoPs for lake effect and upslope snow through early Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Elevation dependent wet snowfall in the Northern Tier and Endless Mountains continues into the morning.

2) Breezy and colder weekend with rain and snow showers downwind of Lake Erie.

3) Dry and seasonal pattern returns next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Elevation dependent wet snowfall in the Northern Tier and Endless Mountains continues into the morning.

Light precipitation on the western edge of low pressure moving off to our east has changed over to snow for the higher elevations of northeast PA. Road temperatures are largely expected to remain above freezing, so any accumulations should be limited to unpaved surfaces. The Winter Weather Advisory for Potter, Tioga, Northern Lycoming, and Sullivan Counties remains in effect through 1 PM today as some parts of those zones could see an additional 1 to 2 inches of snow before precipitation tapers off this afternoon. Areas farther to the south could see some snow mix in with rain this morning, but impacts will be minimal.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Breezy and colder weekend with rain and snow showers downwind of Lake Erie.

Winds initially out of the north-northeast become more north- northwesterly later today, helping to direct some moisture from the Great Lakes into northern and western PA. Though the fetch across Lake Erie will be relatively short, model RH profiles suggest that the moisture should be deep enough to support some lake effect rain and snow showers across the northwest mountains. The wind direction should also become more favorable for upslope rain and snow showers to develop over the Laurel Highlands by early Saturday morning. Snow accumulations will generally be less than an inch and limited to the higher terrain, though isolated amounts of up to 2 inches will be possible by Sunday morning in areas that see the most persistent snow bands.

Winds will be breezy through the weekend with gusts of 20 to 30 mph possible. The wind, combined with highs only in the 30s and 40s, will produce wind chill values in the 15 to 30 degree range at times.

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KEY MESSAGE 3: Dry and seasonal pattern returns next week.

Rain and snow showers come to an end by Monday morning as an upper level ridge builds into the region. High pressure at the surface and aloft will provide dry conditions with mainly clear skies for most of next week along with moderating temperatures. Highs should reach the 50s and 60s by Wednesday for all of Central PA.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Precipitation is currently light, but a band of heavier precipitation looks like it will set up across the northern tier of PA (mainly from IPT and north). The heaviest of the snow and lowest cigs/visbys will likely be east of BFD overnight and Fri as the offshore low deepens more and feeds precip into NE PA. On the good side: A several (6-12hr) break in precip is expected for the western half of the CWA until the flow can back to the NW even more late tonight and on Friday. Light precip (snow on higher elevations and rain low) will continue in the eastern half of CTP's airspace until at least 18-21Z.

Wind will pick up over the next 6 hrs out of the N/NW. Frequent gusts into the upper teens and 20s are expected.

Flying conditions will remain poor for a day or so Fri and Fri night with IFR at the higher-elevation terminals (BFD, JST) and MVFR in the S.

Outlook...

Fri Night...-SHSN and ocnl IFR NW. -SHRA and MVFR SE. Gusty NW wind.

Sat...Improving, but still gusty with MVFR clouds and isold -SHSN for BFD/JST. VFR elsewhere.

Sun...VFR, gusts NW 15-25KT.

Mon-Tue...VFR.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ006-037-041-042.