textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Trimmed afternoon dewpoints/RH Tuesday-Thursday

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry spell through late week precedes return of summer warmth and increasing rain risk for the first weekend of June

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry spell through late week precedes return of summer warmth and increasing rain risk for the first weekend of June

The recent stretch of dry weather continues through late week as Canadian high pressure migrates southeastward from the Upper Great Lakes off the Carolina coast by the weekend. Model data continues to hint at a stray sprinkle or perhaps brief rain shower across the southern half of CPA through the afternoon, but odds for measurable rainfall are generally less than 10%.

A shift in the pattern will bring rising temperatures and humidity levels for late week with summer conditions returning into the first weekend of June. Max temps climb above early June climo into the 75-85F range on Thursday followed by widespread 80-90F readings fcst Friday and Saturday (most likely warmest days).

An approaching cold front from the Lower Great Lakes will bring an increasing chance for scattered showers/t-storms Saturday into Sunday (max POPs on Sunday). The front is fcst to become quasi stationary to the south of the MD line early next week. The proximity of the front along with low level flow shifting to the east/southeast will likely result in unsettled conditions and lower temperatures (near to slightly below normal) into early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

High pressure centered over the Great Lakes Region will keep PA in a regime of northerly flow of dry air for at least the next 36 hours. The dry air will keep any convectively induced clouds that form during today within VFR criteria with bases mostly in the 5kft-8kft range. A high cirrus deck (~25kft) will traverse the region this afternoon into the night as well.

The drier airmass coupled with daytime diurnal heating will allow for steep low level lapse rates to develop, highest in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. This will lead to wind gusts peaking mostly in the 15kt-20kt range from late morning into the evening Tuesday.

Outlook...

Wed-Fri...VFR with no significant weather. Any showers that develop Tue or Wed will be light and spotty. Any fog very limited. Winds begin to take on a greater westerly component Thursday into Friday.

Sat...VFR favored with restrictions possible in -SHRA, mainly late.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.