textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Lowered dewpoints and raised wind gusts slightly for the rest of the afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures trend warmer today through the first few days of the upcoming week, ahead of a system that will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Temperatures start to trend warmer today through the first few days of the upcoming week, ahead of a system that will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday.

After the nip in the air today with highs still 5-10 deg F below normal, expect to see high temperatures jump into the 60s and 70s on Monday and Tuesday as a moderately gusty southwesterly flow develops out ahead of the next, slow-moving cold front.

A few locations across south-central PA may even push the 80 degree mark Tuesday afternoon. Scattered-numerous showers will impact the region (mainly the NW 1/2 of PA) on Tuesday, especially across northwest PA. The higher chance for showers and thunderstorms looks to be on Wednesday and Thursday ahead of a slow-moving cold front.

Temperatures once again turn cooler behind this front for late in the upcoming week, with potential frost/freeze concerns developing.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Very high (> 90%) confidence in widespread VFR conditions continuing through 12Z Monday. Low-level cloud deck continues to gradually shift east of the region with the back edge clearing IPT, some potential for 6000-8000ft AGL ceilings at MDT/LNS through 14Z Sunday; however, the bulk of model guidance outlines clearing closer to the 12Z-13Z timeframe which is jiving well with recent satellite observations. HREF model guidance outlines another day where a scattered-to-broken low- level cloud deck across much of the region; however, expect this to be less expansive based on recent NBM/RAP model guidance so have trended the 12Z TAF set in this direction. Winds will be the main aviation concern today with maximum wind gusts generally between 20-25 knots this afternoon before trending down late this evening (after 20Z Sunday) and throughout the rest of the TAF package. In terms of precipitation mentions towards the end of the 12Z TAF package, model guidance outlines a fair amount of uncertainty between 06-12Z Monday, thus have no mentions in the 12Z TAF cycle; however, increasing chances come after 12Z, which could bring restrictions to central Pennsylvania's terminals.

Outlook...

Mon...Scattered -SHRA develop across wrn PA, and some thunder is possible by Monday PM.

Tue...SHRA/TSRA becomes more widespread from NW to SE; restrictions possible.

Wed-Thu...SHRA/TSRA continue; restrictions likely.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.