textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No significant changes

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unseasonably warm start to October precedes weekend cooldown and frost/freeze risk early next week

2) Not much rain expected for the first 10 days of October

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Unseasonably warm start to October precedes weekend cooldown and frost/freeze risk early next week

Late week warm spell fades into the first weekend of October. Max temps are projected to peak 10-15 degrees above the historical average today/tomorrow before trending seasonably cooler over the weekend into next week. The cooldown will be highlighted by frost potential across the western and central Alleghenies Monday and Tuesday night with min temps near the freezing mark across the northern tier.

------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Not much rain expected for the first 7-10 days of October

We see 2-3 limited opportunities for rain over the next 7+ days in CPA. The first is this morning over the northern tier where observed precip has been largely negligible to barely measurable. The second will occur on Friday as cold front slicing to the southeast from the eastern Great Lakes triggers more widespread light to moderate shower activity. The 3rd window for rain is on Sunday focused mainly over the southern and eastern portions of the CWA. High confidence in a dry stretch for much of next week as large area of Canadian high pressure dominates the pattern.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Cloud cover continues to increase tonight into Friday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Any rain associated with this front likely holds off until right around 12Z Friday before reaching BFD. LLWS will be a concern into Friday morning as a 40 to 60 knot southwesterly low-level jet moves in from the west ahead of the front. LLWS is most likely at BFD and JST overnight, though AOO, UNV, and IPT could may see LLWS develop after 06Z. Fog formation isn't expected to be robust enough at any eastern terminals due to lack of radiational cooling the rest of tonight ahead of the frontal passage, however some passing mist before dawn cannot be fully ruled out.

Regardless of fog formation, IFR or LIFR ceilings appear likely to develop at BFD in the 10-12Z timeframe as rain begins to move in. Showers with lowering ceilings will begin elsewhere throughout the afternoon reaching UNV and IPT around 18Z, and finally reaching the southeastern terminals afterwards. Localized heavier rain may be on tap with PWATs approaching 1.5 to 2 inches for LNS, JST, AOO, and MDT. Visibilities will primarily remain in MVFR during the showers, but periods of IFR are possible. No thunder mentions added because of weak CAPE primarily below freezing level.

Winds take on a northwesterly/northerly flow pattern behind the front. Drier air will filter in behind the front with improvements to flight restrictions from west to east primarily after 23Z Friday to 2Z Saturday. JST and AOO look the most likely candidates to hang onto MVFR conditions later into tomorrow night.

Outlook...

Sat...VFR favored behind the FROPA. AM fog possible.

Sun...Restrictions possible as a weak low pressure system develops along the residual frontal boundary over the Mid- Atlantic. -RA possible, more so across southern and eastern PA.

Mon...Dry conditions with VFR prevailing. AM fog possible.

Tue...Dry conditions with VFR prevailing. AM fog/frost possible, especially across the Allegheny Plateau and Laurels.

CLIMATE

September 2026 precipitation rankings

IPT: 11th wettest (6.84") MDT: 26th wettest (4.72") AOO: 9th wettest (5.58") BFD: 10th wettest (4.85") JST: 3rd wettest (7.31") *since 2000 STC: 6th wettest (7.90")

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.