textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Frost/Freeze late tonight into early Sunday morning

2) Extended stretch of dry weather next week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Frost/Freeze late tonight into early Sunday morning

Bands of north-south oriented clouds off of the Great Lakes continue to decrease in coverage this afternoon as high pressure builds into the region from the west. This high will set up favorable conditions for a widespread frost/freeze tonight into early Sunday morning. Low temperatures will be in the 25-30 degree range for much of the region tonight and a Freeze Warning remains in effect for all zones except for McKean County where the growing season has already ended. The overnight frost/freeze risk will continue for portions of CPA into next week, but additional headline issuances will depend on where the growing season remains active after tonight's freeze.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Extended stretch of dry weather next week

High pressure anchored on the northwest side of a Nor'easter developing along a stalled front off of the NC coast will provide another extended stretch of dry weather in CPA Sunday through next week. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding how close the Nor'easter tracks to the coast, but the vast majority of model solutions keep and precip associated with the storm off to our east. This pattern will feature seasonably warm days, chilly nights, and low humidity.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

High pressure settling in over the region and will stay locked in place for the remainder of the upcoming week. This will result in good VFR in generally SKC and winds less than 10KTS.

There is a low chance (<20%) of patchy BR or VCFG overnight but with dry air moving in, left any mention out of the forecast except for KBFD around sunrise.

Expect dry conditions and good VFR into next weekend. High pressure will remain parked over the Great Lakes with a stalled upper low pressure over the southeast states.

For sunrise departures, expect frost to form on aircraft surfaces on outdoor parked remain overnight aircraft through at least midweek.

Mon-Thu...Patchy AM fog possible with AM frost likely; otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

CLIMATE

Daily record max temperature of 83 degrees set at Altoona yesterday 10/16. The previous record was 81 set in 1962.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ004-006- 010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066.