textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Upgraded the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning for the current active growing season counties. * Adjusted dewpoints and RH to reflect Fire Weather concerns tomorrow and Friday

KEY MESSAGES

1) Frost/freeze conditions and marginal uptick in wildfire spread risk into late week

2) Little to no precipitation forecast through the upcoming weekend with temperatures trending above the historical average into next week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Frost/freeze conditions and marginal uptick in wildfire spread risk into late week

Temperatures this afternoon will reach the low to mid 50s across our region with plenty of sunshine and clear skies allowing for moderating temperatures. These clear skies will also allow for efficient radiational cooling tonight, and one more night of freezing temperatures is expected. Lows Thursday morning could once again dip into the upper 20s across the Lower Susquehanna Valley, and low 30s are anticipated west of the central mountains.

The freeze watch for late tonight into early Thursday morning has been upgraded to a freeze warning. This warning will be in effect from midnight tonight until 9 AM Thursday morning.

A marginal uptick in wildfire spread risk is probable into late week as fuel moisture levels cure/drop closer to or below the key 10% threshold (per DCNR fire weather partner coordination). While minimum RH values will be largely below 30% for Thursday given high pressure and dry air in place overhead. Marginal wind gusts near 20mph will also bring some concern for wildfire spread. A special weather statement may be issued later to address these concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Little to no precipitation forecast through the upcoming weekend with temperatures trending above the historical average into next week

An increasingly milder south to southwest flow will transport warmer air back into CPA through the end of the week. Forecast max temps on Friday are +15-20 degrees higher than today (4/8). Following a minor (5-10F) setback on Saturday, another warm surge is projected into early next week.

A pair of weak cold fronts should bring some limited rainfall largely confined to the NW Alleghenies Thursday night through Friday night. Total QPF range is 0.10-0.50 inches. Little to no rainfall is expected across the southeastern half of CPA in the D0-D2 drought areas.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into the overnight hours and right into Thursday.

High pressure over the area will result in clear skies into Thursday, as temperatures moderate closer to normal levels on Thursday. The airmass over the area is abnormally cold and dry to start, so not expecting any fog tonight, even in spots like LNS and MDT. A nice break from the recent stormy and wet cycle. Dewpoints about as low as one has this time of year, and not seeing any signal for low level moisture off the big pond, so even LNS and MDT should not have fog tonight.

Outlook...

Wed-Thu...VFR.

Fri...Chance of -SHRA especially in the N/W.

Sat...Restrictions poss early, then trending VFR.

Sun...Mainly dry. Maybe a shower near the NY border.

Mon...Chance of showers, mainly north and west later in the day.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for PAZ026>028-035-036-049>052-056-057-059-063>066.