textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No major changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Still a few showers/storms in the Laurels today, but dry and becoming less humid elsewhere.

2) A fall preview on Sunday & Labor Day precedes another brief uptick in heat and humidity next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Still a few showers/storms in the Laurels today, but dry and becoming less humid elsewhere.

A quasi-stationary front is draped across Central PA this morning, supporting a broken deck of stratocumulus clouds and a few isolated showers. This front will continue to sag southwest today thanks to a push of northeasterly winds at the surface. To the southwest of this boundary in the Laurel Highlands, there will still be a few rounds of showers and storms there today. A complex of thunderstorms is moving southeast through Central Ohio early this morning and is progged to bring showers/storms to southwest PA this morning into the early afternoon.

An upper low will gradually impinge on northeast PA today, and those relatively cooler temperatures aloft will support widespread stratocumulus clouds. Highs this afternoon will still be a few degrees warmer than average for this time of year, but dewpoints will decrease this afternoon and evening. Considerable relief arrives tonight as dewpoints and low temperatures drop into the 50s areawide (and touch the upper 40s in the northwest mountains). There could be some fog tonight as well, especially across the northeast part of the area.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: A fall preview on Sunday & Labor Day precedes another brief uptick in heat and humidity next week.

High pressure will build into the region tomorrow and Monday, ushering in much-needed relief from an incredibly active start to the month of September. Other than some morning valley fog, the weather will be really nice for the Sunday and Labor Day Monday. Highs mainly in the 70s and lows 45-55F both Sunday night and Monday night will be ideal for outdoor activities. Sunday could end up being mostly cloudy as the base of an upper low rotates through the region and a few isolated showers are possible. High pressure builds in on Monday, ensuring abundant sunshine for Labor Day. There is a strong signal for widespread valley fog on Monday morning with high pressure overhead providing ideal conditions for optimal radiational cooling.

Surface high pressure moves east of us by Tuesday, which means southwest winds will lead to an uptick in heat and humidity once again. Upper level ridging will nudge into the northeast by the middle of next week bringing continued dry weather. Heat index values back in the 80s to low 90s will peak on Wednesday. Fortunately, the "heat" looks short lived and we'll see temperatures cooling off again for the end of the week.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Restrictions are likely to continue into mid morning across the western airfields (BFD, JST, AOO, and UNV) thanks to a combination of low clouds and reduced visibility. MVFR ceilings will persist at AOO and UNV, while JST will likely bounce between IFR and MVFR through daybreak. At BFD, breaks in the cloud cover and moist ground will combine to produce some fog with reduced cigs and vis. Any fog will quickly mix out within 90 minutes after sunrise Saturday with a light northerly breeze.

Conditions will improve areawide this afternoon, with VFR expected to prevail everywhere eventually. JST will be the slowest to improve as it will still be within range of passing SHRA/TSRA into the afternoon. The probability of showers remains below 30%, but amendments may be needed as confidence increases in timing and impacts. With cool air aloft and a pair of weak short wave troughs, cloud cover could be fairly widespread today though ceilings should be primarily VFR.

Outlook...

Sun-Tue...VFR favored; morning fog possible.

Wed...PM SHRA/TSRA possible in the northern tier.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.