textproduct: State College
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* Flood Watch issued for Somerset County
KEY MESSAGES
1) Flooding possible across southwest Pennsylvania late tonight into Wednesday
2) Seasonably cooler and tranquil/pleasant weather conditions forecast Thursday through the last weekend of May
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Flooding possible across southwest Pennsylvania late tonight into Wednesday
Issued Flood Watch for Somerset County from late tonight into Wednesday due to the combination of one or more rounds of locally heavy rainfall over complex terrain, nearly saturated soils from recent soaking rain, and much above normal streamflows. Hires model/ensemble data show the best +RA signal over the Upper OH Valley into extreme southwest PA; however given some uncertainty in max QPF placement and coordination with LWX/PBZ opted for watch issuance. Confidence is on the lower-end with recent southward trend in the 12Z guidance. Outside of the rain in the southern tier, elsewhere expect partly to mostly cloudy skies and milder overnight low temps in the upper 50s to low 60s or ~10 degrees above late May climo.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: Seasonably cooler and tranquil/pleasant weather conditions forecast Thursday through the last weekend of May
A mainly-dry cold front delivers cooler and drier/less humid air for Thursday followed by high pressure through late week. Reinforcing troughing over the Northeast should result in near to below normal temperatures (seasonably cool) and low precipitation chances for the last weekend of May.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Southerly flow/increasing low-level moisture into tonight will likely drop cigs into MVFR/IFR across the southern airfield with lower VFR farther north from KUNV to KIPT. The northward extent of the low cloud restrictions remains somewhat uncertain. If only sct mid-high clouds reside over the northern tier, fog formation is possible once again at KIPT and maybe KBFD. Confidence in fog/visibility restrictions is less than 30%. Periods of showers will be most likely across the southern tier airspace and may be locally heavy over parts of southwest PA. Expect cigs to trend MVFR and VFR in most places by Wednesday evening.
Outlook...
Thu-Sun...VFR with no significant weather expected.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch from late tonight through Wednesday evening for PAZ033.
IMPORTANT This is an independent project and has no affiliation with the National Weather Service or any other agency. Do not rely on this website for emergency or critical information: please visit weather.gov for the most accurate and up-to-date information available.
textproduct.us is built and maintained by Joshua Thayer.