textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Raised low temperatures for this morning by a few degrees. * Slight increase to PoPs for lake effect and upslope snow through early Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Elevation dependent wet snowfall in the Northern Tier and Endless Mountains continues into the morning.

2) Breezy and colder weekend with rain and snow showers downwind of Lake Erie.

3) Dry and seasonal pattern returns next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Elevation dependent wet snowfall in the Northern Tier and Endless Mountains continues into the morning.

Light precipitation on the western edge of low pressure moving off to our east has changed over to snow for the higher elevations of northeast PA. Road temperatures are largely expected to remain above freezing, so any accumulations should be limited to unpaved surfaces. The Winter Weather Advisory for Potter, Tioga, Northern Lycoming, and Sullivan Counties remains in effect through 1 PM today as some parts of those zones could see an additional 1 to 2 inches of snow before precipitation tapers off this afternoon. Areas farther to the south could see some snow mix in with rain this morning, but impacts will be minimal.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Breezy and colder weekend with rain and snow showers downwind of Lake Erie.

Winds initially out of the north-northeast become more north- northwesterly later today, helping to direct some moisture from the Great Lakes into northern and western PA. Though the fetch across Lake Erie will be relatively short, model RH profiles suggest that the moisture should be deep enough to support some lake effect rain and snow showers across the northwest mountains. The wind direction should also become more favorable for upslope rain and snow showers to develop over the Laurel Highlands by early Saturday morning. Snow accumulations will generally be less than an inch and limited to the higher terrain, though isolated amounts of up to 2 inches will be possible by Sunday morning in areas that see the most persistent snow bands.

Winds will be breezy through the weekend with gusts of 20 to 30 mph possible. The wind, combined with highs only in the 30s and 40s, will produce wind chill values in the 15 to 30 degree range at times.

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KEY MESSAGE 3: Dry and seasonal pattern returns next week.

Rain and snow showers come to an end by Monday morning as an upper level ridge builds into the region. High pressure at the surface and aloft will provide dry conditions with mainly clear skies for most of next week along with moderating temperatures. Highs should reach the 50s and 60s by Wednesday for all of Central PA.

AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Precipitation continues to swirl across northeast PA this morning and a band of rain/snow is drifting toward UNV and IPT. Northwest winds will continue to gust this morning as MVFR ceilings persist. IFR restrictions are possible in any snow showers that occur, which are most likely at IPT and UNV through midday. There is some signal for reduced ceilings at KLNS around daybreak, but improvement will occur later today. VFR ceilings gradually develop across most of the area late this afternoon and evening, first at KAOO with downslope winds, and then areas farther east. Conditions will deteriorate again later tonight with low MVFR at KBFD and KJST and high-end MVFR or VFR elsewhere. Occasional scattered snow showers may bring reduced visibility to KBFD.

Outlook...

Fri Night...-SHSN and ocnl IFR NW. -SHRA and MVFR SE. Gusty NW wind.

Sat...Improving, but still gusty with MVFR clouds and isold -SHSN for BFD/JST. VFR elsewhere.

Sun...VFR, gusts NW 15-25KT.

Mon-Tue...VFR.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ006-037-041-042.