textproduct: State College

SYNOPSIS

*Mainly cloudy conditions into Thursday *Occasional rain Friday and Friday night precedes a dry and seasonably mild back half/end to the weekend *Mild weather continues early next week before a significant pattern shift toward colder conditions around Thanksgiving

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Mid afternoon update.

Lots of sun along the NY border at the current time, but low clouds and a hazy fog across much of the rest of the area. No good way to move it out very fast. Forecast low temperatures tonight based on having some clouds around the area. Still some snow on top of the local mountains nearby, but most of the area is back to green grass, and with the drier air to the north, the snow will not really add to the chill tonight.

Still expect some sun on Thurday, but days are short now. Given the clouds to start the day off, mid and high clouds will not be far off, so high temperatures will be similar to what we have today. Still a shade below normal. Some models have a bit of shower activity edging into the Laurel Highlands by early evening.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

As noted the last few days, the fast northern jet will push a cold front across the area rather quickly on Friday, with limited shower activity.

The southern stream looks like it will not phase with the northern branch, so the area of showers and rain should be moving out by sunrise on Saturday. Heaviet amounts could be across the far southeast, as a wave trys to form on the front. Temperatures across the northwest cool to around 32 by 12Z Saturday, but that depends on skies clearing at this point to allow for cooling to take place.

Some new 12Z guidance (EC for example) hint that our area might get little if any rain on Friday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Trends for the weekend support a mainly dry period, with temperatures typical for mid to late November.

Another fast moving frontal system by Tuesday, before a a bit milder for a brief time, then a possible chill. A very active and fast flow pattern supports the colder air over the north central states edging eastward toward Thanksgiving. Also have to watch for any lows that form near the southeast coast. The main issue will be like on 11/10, where the cold air could make it to nortern FL again. Lake effect for our area will depend on the directional shear. Too early to pinpoint that type of detail. The main issue will be another round of cold and windy conditions.

AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Weak sfc ridging and light winds in the lowest several KFT AGL will allow low clouds (IFR to LIFR) and IFR-MVFR vsbys to linger across the southern half of the airspace this afternoon while a sharp change to mainly VFR occurs across the northern mtns/BFD.

Some gradual improvement in flying conditions will develop farther south of Interstate 80 this afternoon.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR across the northern half of PA, but some lingering restrictions likely across the southern PA airfields (KJST/KAOO/KMDT and KLNS) due to lower clouds as temps cool off this evening.

Friday through early Saturday...Rain and associated restrictions likely.

Sunday and Monday...Mainly VFR.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.