textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No significant changes

KEY MESSAGES

1) Seasonably cooler this weekend into next week with bulk of precipitation confined near and southeast of Lake Erie

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonably cooler this weekend into next week with bulk of precipitation confined near and southeast of Lake Erie

Following one of the warmest starts to November on record in central PA, (see climate section) we'll make a trip on the weather coaster back to seasonably cooler temps this weekend through the upcoming work week (though a slight rebound in temps will occur Sunday through Tuesday).

A compact and seasonably strong closed upper low near Buffalo, NY this afternoon will move across southern New York and lift northeast away from the area by Sunday morning. This feature accompanied by cool air aloft and mean west to NW flow will bring scattered to numerous showers to start the first full weekend of November.

The rest of today into early next week will be noticeably cooler and feel rather chilly given how warm it has been during the day over the past week or so. Breezy conditions will help to bring the chill factor. Max Wind gusts will top out in the mid 25-35mph range and could peak around 40 mph on Monday.

There is a growing model signal for a more substantial long wave trough to carve out over the eastern U.S. by the end of the week. While still very preliminary given the extended forecast length and associated uncertainly/low confidence, it appears the coldest air of the Fall season will attempt to expand southward late next week with the upper trough and could be a factor with a potential coastal storm supplying a swath of precipitation including accumulating snow particularly in the higher elevations.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Typical westerly postfrontal upslope flow pattern stays locked in through Sunday morning with IFR to LIFR conds at KBFD/KJST and MVFR conds at KUNV/KAOO/KIPT. Periods of drizzle are likely in the central and western mountains through daybreak. Frequent wind gusts 20-25kt from 260-300 degrees are expected through Sunday. Improvements to VFR are expected by late Sunday morning as low-level moisture clears out, giving way to sunshine with some high clouds for the afternoon.

Another upper-level low will swing across the Northeastern US Sunday night through Monday and bring a return of lower clouds and -SHRA across our area. Flight restrictions will be most likely at KBFD (MVFR to IFR) and KJST (mainly MVFR), with intermittent MVFR possible across the Ridge and Valley region (KAOO/KUNV/KIPT) and VFR favored across the Lower Susquehanna Valley (KMDT/KLNS). Over NW PA (KBFD), cold air aloft may even support graupel in a few showers during this timeframe. Additionally, wind shear may approach LLWS thresholds across south-central PA (primarily KJST/KAOO/KUNV) Sunday night as westerly winds in the lowest 1000-1500 ft approach 35-40 kts.

Outlook...

Tue-Wed...Mainly VFR with SW to W winds gusting up to around 15-25 kts during the daytime.

Thu...Leaning sub-VFR with rain and snow possible into late next week.

CLIMATE

The sun set at 5PM today 11/7 in State College. This marks the beginning of a 2 month stretch during which sunsets will occur before 5PM.

It has been one of the warmest starts to November on record in central PA. Here are the average temperature rankings from Nov. 1-5th:

SITE AVG Temp Rank Harrisburg 57.9F #13th warmest Williamsport 55.8F #7th warmest Altoona 57.9F #6th warmest Bradford 54.6F #5th warmest State College 57.1F #4th warmest Johnstown 59.1F #2nd warmest *since 2000

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.