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WHAT HAS CHANGED
* Severe threat has ended.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Blustery and much turning much colder tonight and Saturday
2) Frost and freeze conditions Saturday night into early Sunday
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Blustery and much turning much colder tonight and Saturday
The post-frontal winds gusting 25-35 mph direct much colder air into CPA through tonight into Saturday. Clouds and winds have resulted in slightly warmer overnight low temps so advective freeze is probably off the table for the NW mtns. Low level flow turns more northerly overnight which should limit lake effect response, although a few rain/snow showers remain possible over the higher terrain. Min wind chills by Saturday morning will be in the 25-35F range across the western and central Alleghenies. Highs on Saturday will be 20 to 30 degrees colder vs. Friday.
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KEY MESSAGE 2: Frost and freeze conditions Saturday night into early Sunday
Frost/freeze still looks good for Saturday night into early Sunday morning as clouds fade and winds subside. Issued Freeze watch for active zones in the late innings of the growing season.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Widespread MVFR cigs and rain showers have developed along and west of the Alleghenies this evening. Medium confidence (60 pct) in MVFR cigs spreading east into UNV by 03z. Lower chance (<40 pct) at IPT and <20 pct chance for MDT and LNS. Periods of IFR conds are possible at JST (60 pct chance) and BFD (<40 pct chance). Showers over the west will gradually taper off by 12z Sat, and VFR conds become likely at all TAF sites by 16z Sat as much drier air erodes the clouds. NW winds will gust 20-30 kts into the day Saturday. There may be periods tonight when the sfc wind is light enough for LLWS to be present, especially at IPT. Winds will become light areawide Saturday night, combining with the cold air to result in widespread frost and freeze conditions.
Outlook...
Sun-Tue...AM fog possible; otherwise, VFR conditions prevail.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for PAZ004-006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046- 049>053-056>059-063>066.
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