textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No significant changes

KEY MESSAGES

1) Potential for heavy rain and flooding Sunday-Tuesday

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Potential for heavy rain and flooding Sunday- Tuesday

Strengthening south-southwest flow in advance of a slow moving upper trough in the Ohio Valley will drive anomalous 1.5-2" PW into CPA along and ahead of an approaching cold front on Sunday. Strong warm advection and moisture transport/LLJ combined with favorable upper dynamics should support active/elevated convection reaching west-central PA as early as late Saturday night with max POPs centered on the 24hr Sunday window. Cloud cover and early day rain showers continue to cast a shadow on conditional severe wx potential through Sunday afternoon and evening; however stronger shear values amidst a relatively low CAPE environment is worth calling out particularly if there are breaks of sunshine.

It now appears there will be at least some potential for heavy rain/flooding through early next week as the upper trough closes off or trends slower to eject out of the Ohio Valley. While WPC trimmed the level 2/4 excessive rain outlook back a bit over NW PA for Sunday/D3, we will need to watch for sneaky +RA signal to shift over eastern portions of the CWA where the level 1 marginal risk will be expanded with the next ERO issuance later this afternoon.

--------------------------------------------------------------- July = record-setting month in terms of convective warnings. WFO CTP issued 12 Tornado Warnings in July, which is the most since 1996 when we issued 25. 95 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings is the 3rd most in any July on record, behind 1996 (96) and 2021 (122). Year-to- date, 226 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings is the most on record, passing 2019 (221), and 24 Tornado Warnings is 4th most behind 1998 (55), 2011 (37), and 1996 (30). 250 total Severe Thunderstorm Warnings + Tornado Warnings is the most on record year-to-date, passing 2019 (241).

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Early evening convectively driven cumulus have dissipated, giving way to mostly clear skies and nearly calm winds with just some upper level cirrus (~20-25 kft). Clouds will tend to thicken and lower slightly through the TAF period (through 00z Sun) but generally remain in the mid and upper level. Scattered cu are possible esp in the eastern airfields Sat afternoon, but remaining VFR.

Visibility restrictions look unlikely for tonight/early Sat morning. HREF chances for <5mi visibility are under 20% at this time across much of the state, but some signal is present for fog nearby BFD & IPT sites. VCFG was included in their TAF sites to account for this.

Winds will be out of the south on Saturday with occasional gusts 15-20 kts. Rain will move into the area from west to east after 00z Sun.

Outlook... Sun...More widespread SHRA with PM TSRA possible. Restrictions likely for central and western airfields, especially in heavier SHRA/TSRA.

Mon...AM SHRA with PM TSRA possible. Restrictions possible, especially SE where chances for SHRA/TSRA are higher.

Tue...Upper-lvl low over the Ohio Valley may bring SHRA/TSRA with possible restrictions to the Commonwealth, though lower confidence in SHRA/TSRA compared to previous days.

Wed...Upper-lvl low moves out, but restrictions still possible in lingering SHRA/TSRA.

CLIMATE

Here are a few key climate callouts to wrap up July 2026:

2nd wettest at Bradford (7.78"/+3.62" above normal)

6th wettest at Altoona (6.18"/+2.70" above normal)

10th wettest at State College (6.09"/+2.30" above normal)

6th most # of days with maxT >=100F at Harrisburg (3) T3rd most # of days with maxT >=100F at Williamsport (2)

Looking ahead to August, the daylength decreases by 2-2.5 min/day with a total loss of daylight of ~ 70 minutes.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.