textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Leaned lower for max/min temps today and tonight. * Leaned lower for dewpoints during the afternoon Sat & Sun. * Added patchy fog/frost to the northern tier of CPA tonight. * Small chance of showers eastern areas mid week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Refreshingly cool and breezy start to the last weekend of May.

2) Pleasant, rain-free dry spell with low humidity to end May and start June.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Refreshingly cool and breezy start to the last weekend of May.

Low pressure off the New England Coast and high pressure central Ontario, will keep a northeast flow of abnormally cold air across the region into early week, as a deep upper level low slowly works eastward from the coast.

However another upper level low will drop southwared across the northeast states by Monday. Like Friday, this system could result in a few showers between Monday and Wednesday, esp. across the eastern and southern portions of the Keystone state.

Held off on any frost headlines across the NW, as winds may not die off for very long, and dewpoints not real high for frost. If winds were calm most of the night, then isolated pockets of freezing temperatures could occur near the plant level (right on the ground), given this dry airmass.

More information on this below.

A relatively chilly overnight period by the end of May climo standards with patchy fog/frost added to parts of the northern tier. Confidence has increased in lower min temps vs. NBM given favorable low pwat/dewpoint radiational cooling setup; expect the usual cold spots to print lows in the mid-upper 30s early Sunday morning.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Pleasant, rain-free dry spell with low humidity to end May and start June.

Persistent, high-amplitude omega blocking pattern over the northern CONUS will bring an extended stretch of rain-free (dry) weather to close out May and start off June.

As noted above, a small chance of a shower, but overall any QPF amounts would be minor, given how dry this airmass is.

The pleasant and refreshing conditions (with near to slightly cooler than average temperatures) are fcst trend warmer by late next week with more summerlike conditions projected by the first weekend of June.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Other than some fair weather CU this afternoon, not much going on.

Given the low dewpoints, not looking at much fog potential overnight. Small chance that BFD could get some for a very brief time just before sunrise, but left out of the BFD TAF for now, as the airmass is very dry for this time of year.

Winds will die around sunset.

Overall good weather for aviation for at least into the first part of next week.

Outlook...

Mon-Thu...VFR with no significant weather expected. Any showers would be very light. Any fog very limited.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.