textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Lowered dewpoints and increased wind gusts Tuesday afternoon * Added frost for Thursday night

KEY MESSAGES

1) Fickle first full week of May with early warm surge followed by rain and then return of chilly/cooler weather

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Fickle first full week of May with early warm surge followed by rain and then return of chilly/cooler weather

Mild afternoon in progress with gusty wind from the southwest helping to boost temps into the 65-75F range.

Hires model data still brings showers/elevated thunder into the area later this evening from west to east which may continue overnight. Best precip signal is over the western Alleghenies.

Tuesday will be the warmest day of the week with highs likely reaching the lower 80s across the southeast portion of the CWA. Some fire weather concern given breezy conditions with low RH, but latest coordination with DCNR partners indicates Spring fire season is largely ended for areas to the south of I80 due to very warm April accelerating greenup.

Best odds for widespread rain are with a cold front progressing south and east Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Total rainfall by 8AM Thursday ranges from 0.25-0.50" across the drought-stricken southeast to 1-1.5" across the NW mtns where the largest precip surplus exists.

Temperatures once again turn cooler behind the front with showery conditions for later in the week. There will also be a renewed potential for frost/freeze conditions.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions will continue through the rest of the day with scattered clouds between 5000 and 7000 feet. Southwesterly wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots will continue into the early evening, before tapering off after sunset.

A 40 to 50 knot low-level jet moving in tonight will bring LLWS concerns to much of Central PA. For now, we have kept wind shear out of the TAFs at IPT, MDT, and LNS, with the strongest part of the jet expected to remain west of those sites. The LLJ will also provide enough lift for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop over western PA after 00Z. All airfields except MDT and LNS have at least a 30 percent chance of seeing rain from these showers and storms tonight. Widespread restrictions appear unlikely, though brief visibility drops will be possible in any thunderstorms.

Showers decrease in coverage after sunrise on Tuesday, giving way to mainly dry conditions for the rest of the morning. MVFR ceilings may develop at BFD, though the rest of Central PA should remain VFR. Expect southwesterly wind gusts increase to 20 to 25 knots by 15Z.

Outlook...

Tue PM...SHRA/TSRA becomes more widespread from NW to SE; restrictions possible.

Wed-Thu...SHRA/TSRA continue; restrictions likely.

Fri-Sat...Scattered SHRA remains possible, restrictions possible.

CLIMATE

Multiple low temperature records were set or tied across central Pennsylvania for May 3rd:

Altoona observed a low temperature of 31 degrees, breaking the previous record of 32 degrees set in 1957.

Johnstown observed a low temperature of 29 degrees, which ties the previous record of 29 degrees set in 1941.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.