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SYNOPSIS

* Mostly cloudy skies remain in place through Saturday morning with a period of light rain tonight * A weak shortwave trough passing by to our north on Sunday will bring gusty winds and the potential for light rain or snow showers across the northern tier Sunday afternoon with flurries lingering Sunday evening * Mild pattern with rain prior to Thanksgiving turns decidedly colder with wind and lake effect snow possible on Thanksgiving and continuing into Friday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Two fairly weak upper-level short wave troughs in the Northern and Southern streams will move across the NE US and Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians tonight. The southern stream wave will have the greatest impact on our CWA precip-wise with a period of weak to moderate uvvel linked to the left exit region of an upper level jet. Rainfall amounts will range from up to 0.10 inch in the northern tier to 0.25 to locally 0.50 inch from I-80 southward.

Later tonight, cooler and drier air will begin to pour into northern PA in the wake of a cold front. Some pockets of mixed precip may be possible on the northern edge of the precip by early Saturday morning north of US-6, but no winter weather impacts are expected. Lows Saturday morning will be near freezing in northwest PA while clouds/rain keep temperatures in the mid 40s along and south of I-76.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

A somewhat zonal pattern will settle in for the weekend with the southern branch of the jet stream extending from northern Mexico ENE across the Gulf Coast States as a slow moving Upper Low drifts across northern Baja California. Several pieces of energy diving SE from NW Canada, combined with a potent upper level trough crashing into the Wash/Oregon Coast, will amplify the flow across N American and the mean trough over the NE U.S. Saturday night into early next week.

In our neck of the woods, surface ridging will support a drying trend later in the day Saturday with breaks of sunshine developing. The clearing will support lows in the 20s by Sunday morning. An upper level trough pivoting through the Great Lakes may deliver some rain/snow showers to the northern tier on Sunday. We'll also see westerly winds gust 25-35 mph late Sunday as winds at the top of a well mixed BL increase to near 45 mph.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Much more sunshine is expected Monday as sprawling high pressure moves overhead. A period of rain appears likely Tuesday and Wednesday in a warm advection regime ahead of a deepening low moving up towards the Great Lakes. Temps will peak in the 50s on Wednesday. Colder air wrapping around the system could produce some lake effect snow in the northwest mountains starting on Thanksgiving day, with some potential for more widespread snow showers making their way down to Interstate 80 on Friday. Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph are possible both Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

MVFR to IFR conditions expected to prevail through current TAF period. Rain spreads across the southern 3/4 of the airspace between 02-05Z; KBFD is likely just a bit far north to get wet. However a prob30 has been added due to current radar trends. Rain ends from NW to SE between 10-15Z with a drier flow from 300-330 degrees signaling a return to MVFR and VFR conditions by Saturday afternoon as clouds lift and scatter out.

Outlook...

Sat...Improvement to VFR at most terminals. Fog may return Saturday night.

Sun...Breezy with rain/snow showers possible northern tier.

Mon...VFR.

Tue...Breezy with periods of rain.

Wed...Breezy with rain showers, possibly turning to snow showers in the NW after dark.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.