textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No significant changes

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold frontal passage today will bring a few to several hour period of isolated showers, followed by a weekend cooldown and a frost/freeze risk early next week

2) Not much rain expected for the first 10 days of October

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold frontal passage today will bring a few to several hour period of isolated showers, followed by a weekend cooldown and a frost/freeze risk early next week

Our recent warm spell (with daytime high temps some 8 to 12 deg F above normal and nighttime low temperature departures even greater) will exit to the east as clouds and the chance for showers increase today with the arrival of a cold front. Ahead of the approaching cold front, temperatures are well above normal (+10-15 deg F) over the SE half of the state, while highs topped out near normal across the Northwest where clouds and rain tempered afternoon warmth.

Temperatures will become seasonably cooler this weekend behind the cold front. Saturday will be dry and pleasant with seasonable temperatures. Another wave of moisture will bring light rain to southeast PA on Sunday afternoon with light rain accumulation.

Another stronger cold front will push through Sunday night and early Monday. The second surge of the cooldown will be highlighted by frost potential across the western and central Alleghenies Monday and Tuesday night with min temps near the freezing mark across the northern tier.

------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Not much rain expected for the first 7-10 days of October

We'll have a few, generally limited opportunities for rain over the next 7+ days in CPA. The first will come this morning over the Northwest Mtns as cold front over the Lower Great Lakes drifts gradually southeast.

02/00Z High Res model members and the HREF are a little more robust with rainfall amounts across the CWA today (compared to the 12Z Thu run) and even ramp up the intensity of the showers across the SE third of the state with a potential for TSRA in the 20+ percent range given some small areas of MU CAPE values of up to 750 J/KG during the mid to late afternoon with temps in the L80s and sfc Tds in the mid 60s.

The second opportunity for rain is on Sunday focused mainly over the southern and eastern portions of the CWA. High confidence in a dry stretch for much of next week as large area of Canadian high pressure dominates the pattern.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As expected, rain along a cold front has dwindled considerably today and only isolated showers are being observed early this afternoon. Isolated showers with lowering MVFR ceilings are along JST to UNV to IPT as of 18Z and will continue southeastward this evening. A few stronger showers are possible in southeast PA (MDT and LNS), but the more likely scenario is only light rain with little to no restrictions at those airfields.

Winds take on a northwesterly/northerly flow pattern behind the front as drier air filters in. The period of restrictions should only last a few hours will fairly quick improvement from west to east primarily after 23Z Friday to 2Z Saturday.

Patchy fog is possible at KBFD by daybreak on Saturday, but there is not enough confidence to prevail any restrictions there. An otherwise pleasant day is expected on Saturday with high clouds moving to the south of the area and mainly sunny skies across PA.

Outlook...

Sat...VFR favored behind the FROPA. AM fog possible.

Sun...Restrictions possible as a weak low pressure system develops along the residual frontal boundary over the Mid- Atlantic. -RA possible, more so across southern and eastern PA.

Mon...Dry conditions with VFR prevailing. AM fog possible.

Tue...Dry conditions with VFR prevailing. AM fog/frost possible, especially across the Allegheny Plateau and Laurels.

Wed...Dry with VFR conditions.

CLIMATE

September 2026 precipitation rankings

IPT: 11th wettest (6.84") MDT: 26th wettest (4.72") AOO: 9th wettest (5.58") BFD: 10th wettest (4.85") JST: 3rd wettest (7.31") *since 2000 STC: 6th wettest (7.90")

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.