textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Kept max temperatures on Friday a bit cooler than model guidance, especially across eastern zones, due to the expected presence of a backdoor cold front.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periods of beneficial rainfall expected into this weekend.

2) Warmest temperatures since late last Fall poised to arrive areawide by Saturday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Periods of beneficial rainfall expected into this weekend.

On the heels of one of the driest winters on record, periods of beneficial rain are expected into this weekend. Patchy light rain will linger across southern PA today, before a more robust moisture surge spreads widespread steadier rain into central PA overnight through Thursday. Rainfall of 0.75-1.25" is expected through Thursday evening.

PoPs and QPF for Friday look comparatively low. The next good chance for widespread rainfall will arrive Saturday into Saturday night, ahead of and accompanying a cold frontal passage.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Warmest temperatures since late last Fall poised to arrive areawide by Saturday.

Cold air damming will delay the arrival of the warm air for much of central PA until Saturday. However, the persistent and amplified upper level ridging over the Southeast U.S./Western Atlantic will (eventually) provide a significant springtime warming trend by Saturday. Fcst max and min temperatures will be 15-30 degrees above average on Saturday.

Even with a cold frontal passage Sat night, it should remain unseasonably mild into early next week.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Clearing has broken out across for northwestern PA as BFD is experiencing a brief period of VFR with clear skies. Likely an intrusion of dry air from the north has allowed for low clouds to scatter out temporarily. Elsewhere fog and low stratus continue to hang on, and most sites will likely not see much more in the way of improving conditions even as we get into the peak daytime hours. However, there is still a low chance (~30%) that IPT and UNV could come up to MVFR by late this afternoon. Scattered rain and drizzle will keep airfields in the southern half of PA IFR through the remainder of today.

Any improvements will be short-lived, with IFR conditions expected to return area-wide tonight as low clouds and fog expand once again ahead of an approaching short wave. Widespread rain will arrive by 12Z Thursday and remain present over the entire region through the day and into the beginning of Friday. Restrictions will remain in place and airfields will likely stay near flight minimums. Most guidance has no signal for improvementabove IFR for Thursday.

Outlook...

Thu...Restrictions likely with widespread rain associated with a warm front.

Fri...Stationary front across the region. Restrictions possible, especially across central/eastern airfields.

Sat...Restrictions remain possible, especially in the north and east. VFR most likely from KJST south and west, where winds could get gusty in the warm sector. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms likely with cold FROPA.

Sun...Trending towards VFR.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.