textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No significant changes

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unseasonably mild through Friday with 2-week dry spell coming to an end

2) Trending cooler this weekend with showers downwind of Lake Erie

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Unseasonably mild through Friday with 2-week dry spell coming to an end

Anomalous upper level ridging and south-southwest flow aloft will maintain unseasonably warm temperatures through late week. Max/Min temps will be 10 to 20 degrees above the historical average for the first week of November, but should fall short of daily records.

Leading sfc front is expected to be accompanied by a band of rain moving west to east Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A trailing shortwave trough dropping through the Great Lakes may induce a wave of low pressure along the boundary as it slows its eastward progression toward the coast, potentially resulting in another slug of rain over the southeastern part of the forecast area Thursday night into Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Trending cooler this weekend with some showers downwind of Lake Erie

Cooler cyclonic WNW flow pattern follows in the wake of the departing shortwave trough by the weekend. Latest model data favors shower activity downwind of Lake Erie. NBM may not be bearish (cold) enough for daytime highs Sat-Sun especially over the western high terrain.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR will continue at all Central PA and Susq Valley airfields through the rest of the overnight hours and Tuesday with variable amounts of the mid-level altocumulus clouds based between 8000 and 11000FT AGL.

The lone exception will be INVOF of KBFD where the nose of a low level moist axis was aimed right at the NW Mtns of PA and Erie Lakeshore with MVFR CIGS there. Cigs will gradually rise into low end VFR at KBFD by 15Z today with VFR continuing elsewhere.

The next chance for impactful precipitation will arrive Wednesday evening (NW) and overnight into Thursday across the Central and Eastern part of the CWA.

Low pressure will track NE from the Central Plains and reach the Upper Great Lakes Wednesday evening. Strengthening southerly flow ahead of the low's southward trailing cold front will create a moderately gusty southerly flow over the western half of PA Wednesday and Wed night with a 12-15 hour period of LLWS later Wednesday into the mid morning hours Tuesday.

Outlook...

Wed-Thu...Rain showers, especially in the PM hours on Wednesday and continuing into Thursday. Sub-VFR conditions become more likely in showers.

Fri-Sat...Scattered to isolated rain, cloudy conditions and sub VFR ceilings possible.

CLIMATE

Current Consecutive Days streak without measurable rain:

10/17 through 11/2 (17 days) Harrisburg, Williamsport, Altoona, State College

10/18 through 11/2 (16 days) Bradford, Johnstown

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.