textproduct: State College

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Lowered maxT on Saturday 11/7

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unseasonably mild through Friday with 2.5 weeks-long dry spell coming to an end overnight into Thursday

2) Trending cooler this weekend with light rain downwind of Lake Erie

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Unseasonably mild through Friday with 2.5 weeks- long dry spell coming to an end late tonight into Thursday

Anomalous upper level ridging and south-southwest flow aloft will maintain unseasonably warm temperatures through late week. Max/Min temps will be 10 to 20 degrees above the historical average for the first week of November, but should fall short of daily record highs (see climate section).

A leading frontal band of light rain should reach the western Alleghenies around or shortly after midnight and continue spreading eastward across central PA through Thursday morning. Fcst rainfall amounts are 0.25" inch or less through 00Z Fri in most areas and will end the 2.5 weeks-long dry spell.

The front slows/stalls near the I95 corridor Thursday night. A shortwave trough/closed H5 low dropping southeast from the Great Lakes is expected to reinvigorate precipitation along the nearly stationary frontal zone on Friday which could clip the far southeast zones/Lower Susquehanna Valley. Model trends have been shifting this rain farther to the east/closer to the coast over the past few cycles. A dry slot may keep most locations dry Thursday afternoon into Friday following the initial period of rain late tonight through Thursday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Trending cooler this weekend with light rain downwind of Lake Erie

Seasonably cooler/breezy pattern to start the first full weekend of November. The passage of closed H5 low followed by mean cyclonic flow favors persistent clouds and periods of lake enhanced rain over the western and central Alleghenies on Saturday. We were keen to manually adjust max temps a few degrees lower on 11/7 to account for the cooler pattern shift which looks to continue into early next week.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Patchy fog is in the vicinity of the southeast airfields (KMDT and KLNS) this morning and could expand northwest to KIPT and KUNV before the fog mixes out. Otherwise, high clouds are beginning to stream in from the west. Fog likely mixes out between ~14-16Z, with VFR conditions likely to continue through 00Z Thursday with very high (~80-90%) confidence. After 00Z Thursday, widespread restrictions are expected to build from west to east with rain showers and lowering ceilings at all of central Pennsylvania's airfields. IFR or LIFR ceilings are likely areawide along with LLWS given the presence of a 40-50kt 850mb LLJ.

Outlook...

Thu...Rain showers. Sub-VFR conditions become more likely in showers.

Fri-Sat...Scattered to isolated rain, cloudy conditions and sub VFR ceilings possible.

Sun...Mainly VFR, isolated rain in NW PA.

CLIMATE

Current Consecutive Days streak without measurable rain:

10/17 through 11/3 (18 days): Harrisburg, Williamsport, Altoona, State College

10/18 through 11/2 (17 days): Johnstown

Daily record highs for 11/4 and 11/5:

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

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