textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Minor timing modifications to the periods of rain today that will be moving Westward across the Susquehanna Valley and Central Mountains of PA.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Nor'easter filling as its center pushes inland meanders across Southern New Jersey late today and tonight.

2) Tranquil conditions expected for the first half of next week with a slight warming trend emerging across the region.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Nor'easter filling as its center pushes inland meanders across Southern New Jersey late today and tonight.

The center of the nor-easter is located between KACY and KMIV this afternoon and the low is expected to push just a bot more to the southwest early tonight before becoming nearly stationary over Southern NJ or Delaware Bay later tonight. The center of the low will drift slowly offshore again Monday and track south of and parallel with the southern shore of Long Island.

One distinct vort lobe will bring several hours more of mainly light rain across the region to the west of a KHGR to KIPT and KELM line late this afternoon through early tonight.

A second area of rain associated with mid level FGEN forcing just NW of the low center will move back into the Western Poconos and Susq Valley this evening and fall off and on as light rain or drizzle overnight with another 0.10 to 0.25 of an inch expected.

Northerly wind gusts in the mid to upper 20 kt range will persist across the Susq Valley into the early evening hours before slipping back into the teens.

Conditions will improve (with respect to less rain) tonight and Monday morning. By noon Monday, there should only be isolated --SHRA over the NE and the wind will not be notable. Temps rise slightly from Sun, but will still be cooler than normal.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Tranquil conditions expected for the first half of next week with a slight warming trend emerging across the region.

Dry conditions will continue into Thursday as the front anticipated to be arriving late Wed/night will be delayed for a day or so. It will pick up some moisture from the remnants of Polo. But, that precip probably stays to our W until Thursday. All model guidance trends towards a warming trend in this timeframe, with above-average temperatures prevailing area wide for the balance of the week. Someone may hit 80F before Friday. Details on timing and intensity of rainfall are not easy to pin down at this range and with the upcoming pattern. So, we'll just make a gradual increase in PoPs Fri-Sat-Sun.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

The progression of weather conditions through this TAF period will be best explained through the lens of wind direction. Overnight, northeast winds aloft rotating around the north side of a Nor'easter will continue to bring low clouds and some rain showers across the region. MVFR ceilings should deteriorate to IFR across nearly all airfields overnight. Meanwhile, surface winds are out of the northwest at KMDT and KLNS, which will support persistent MVFR and should keep ceilings above IFR through the TAF period.

A slackening pressure gradient will result in lighter winds overnight and into Monday. The Nor'easter will lift northeastward toward Cape Cod on Monday. This will cause winds to shift around to come out of the northwest on Monday. As this happens, downslope winds east of the Allegheny Front will promote rising ceilings for KAOO, KIPT, and KUNV to MVFR, while KBFD and KJST will keep IFR ceilings well into the afternoon (and perhaps into Tuesday morning). Outlook...

Mon...MVFR restrictions persist in with lingering isolated showers.

Tue...Gradual improvement, MVFR lingers at higher elevations (BFD, JST) in a typical northwest flow pattern.

Wed...Sunshine returns, mostly VFR.

Thu...Chance of showers late PM, some restrictions possible.

Fri...Cold FROPA with showers along the front.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.