textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Wind Advisory is now in effect for Somerset and Cambria counties from 8pm tonight through 2pm Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periods of rain and breezy conditions from Isaias arrive tonight and continue through Sunday

2) Trending warmer to start an unsettled week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Periods of rain and breezy conditions from Isaias arrive tonight and continue through Sunday

Fair weather will be in play today with dry conditions and increasing mid and high level clouds.Rain associated with Isaias is projected to reach the Laurel Highlands before midnight tonight and gradually expand throughout central PA into Sunday morning. Periods of rain continue Sunday afternoon into Sunday night before tapering off by early Monday. Total rainfall amounts are still forecasted between 0.75 and 1.50 inches over a 24-36hr duration with a low risk of potential flooding impacts.

As post-tropical/TD Isaias tracks from the TN Valley into WV, gusty winds will overspread the Laurel Highlands with maximum wind gusts of 35-45 mph west of the tallest ridges. Elsewhere, gusts of 20 to 30 mph will be possible. Winds will increase this evening, reaching gusts of up to 45 mph, before tapering off after 2 pm Sunday. A Wind Advisory has been issued for Cambria and Somerset counties.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Trending warmer to start an unsettled week

After the rain tracks off to the east, temperatures will begin to rise Monday. Clouds will begin to decrease later in the afternoon as air starts to trend drier. Tuesday a cold front will drop south through the Commonwealth bringing a chance for showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two. Wednesday will provide brief reprieve before the next system moves over the state Thursday as rainy weather settles in through the weekend.

AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Prevailing VFR remains likely through Today as a broad high pressure moves across the Northeastern US. Mid and high clouds increase through the day on today ahead of what is currently Hurricane Isaias. Winds will be out of the southeast at 5 to 10 knots, though a few gusts to 20 knots will be possible at KJST during the afternoon. There is some guidance to suggest gust of 35+ knots could occur at KJST after 04Z on Sunday, but confidence is low those winds mixing down to the surface. Any rainfall associated with the remnants of Isaias will hold off until late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. The initial thought on timing would be after 06Z Sunday is when precipitation would begin over the southwest. Rain and lowering ceilings will then overspread across the region, with IFR conditions likely for most TAF sites Sunday morning.

Outlook...

Sun-Mon...Restrictions likely in lower ceilings and rain.

Tue...VFR favored, though a FROPA may bring restrictions in -SHRA. AM fog possible.

Wed...AM ceiling restrictions possible from post-frontal stratocu, with VFR otherwise favored. Slight chance of -SHRA due to lingering moisture behind front.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Sunday for PAZ024-033.