textproduct: State College

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WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Added locally +RA in WPC Marginal EROs Wednesday-Friday

KEY MESSAGES

1) Trending humid with heavy downpours and localized flash flooding possible Wednesday into the weekend

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Trending humid with heavy downpours and localized flash flooding possible Wednesday into the weekend

After a very nice/refreshing start to the week, deep moisture surge of high pwats within a return SW flow will spell an increased risk of heavy drenching downpours and localized flash flooding Wednesday into the upcoming weekend. WPC continues to show broad marginal risks of excessive rain (ERO) given the uncertainty in the location of heavy rainfall. Conditions will be warm and quite sticky/humid with dewpoints in the 65-75F range; muggy nights 5-10+ degrees above the historical average.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Surge of low level moisture from south to north will likely bring MVFR ceilings into parts of the southern PA airspace this morning. Cigs most likely trend back to VFR for the afternoon. Best odds for a brief heavy downpour and localized MVFR/IFR visibility appears to be in the KMDT/KLNS vicinity this afternoon. Confidence is generally low regarding precip trends. Humid and stagnant airmass tonight suggests favors lowering flight cats toward MVFR into early Thursday morning.

Outlook...

Thu-Sun...Pockets of fog in the morning. Scattered showers/isolated t-storms with heavy downpours and localized restrictions.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

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