textproduct: State College
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WHAT HAS CHANGED
* No significant changes
KEY MESSAGES
1) Extended stretch of dry and seasonable weather this week
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Extended stretch of dry and seasonable weather this week
Persistent high pressure over the Northeast U.S. will provide an extended stretch of dry and seasonable weather this week. Tonight won't be as cold as the past few nights have been, but we should still see temperatures drop into the upper 30s and low 40s. Patchy frost will be possible in the coldest spots, but not in the areas where the growing season is still active. The latest model data shows the dry spell continuing into the final week of October. This rain-free pattern will feature a string of sunny and seasonably warm afternoons with low humidity followed by clear and chilly moonlit nights with areas of frost.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure continues to dominate with sunny skies this afternoon and VFR expected to continue for all TAF sites through at least 06Z Tuesday. There is some fog potential again tonight into early Tuesday. A handful of models show northerly flow carrying higher dewpoint air downstream of the Great Lakes, with potential for some fog or low stratus at BFD in the 08-13Z Tuesday timeframe; however, confidence remains too low for outright inclusion of IFR conditions in the 18Z TAF cycle. The main question is how far inland from the Great Lakes will the low level moisture reach.
As a coastal storm crawls slowly north tonight into early tomorrow, the pressure gradient between the storm and a reinforcing shot of high pressure will result in increasing N to NE flow. This will likely first set up a period of low level wind shear for the eastern airfields (IPT, LNS, MDT) late tonight into early Tuesday morning as winds at the sfc will remain light due to a stable nocturnal boundary layer, and winds at 2000 ft increase into the 30-35 kt range. After a couple hours of diurnal heating on Tuesday, the stable boundary layer will give way to deeper mixing resulting in wind gusts in the 15-20 kt range for the eastern airfields.
Wed-Sat...Patchy AM fog and frost possible in the north and west; otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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