textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Minor tweaks to Sky/PoPs/Wx for the overnight hours.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Just a few showers left along the line. Some patchy fog is possible overnight.

2) A taste of fall to start the workweek will be followed by increasing humidity and chances for rain for the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Just a few showers left along the line. Some patchy fog is possible overnight.

The few showers left out there continue to dissipate.

The cold front and much drier air are starting to get into PA, now. Expect that drier air to continue sliding across PA overnight. By morning, the northern mtns may have dewpoints in the upper 40s, and even the far srn tier will have 55-60F Tds. Little fog is expected as the dry airmass moves in - and some clouds, too, just behind the front. But, some of the northern valleys will probably have a little fog as they temps there should become colder than the river/creek water temps.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: A taste of fall to start the workweek will be followed by increasing humidity and chances for rain for the second half of the week.

Dewpoints will fall rapidly behind the cold front, from near 70 this afternoon to the 40s and 50s by early Monday. The northern tier will see some low stratus downwind of the Great Lakes on Monday in NW flow. Otherwise, expect clear skies and a pleasant September afternoon across much of central PA on Monday. With high pressure building overhead, radiational cooling will be effective Monday night bringing temperatures down into the 40s for much of central PA with patchy river valley fog possible. Valley fog will be possible again Tuesday night.

Return flow on the back side of the high pressure system moving offshore will bring increasing humidity for the middle and latter part of the week. A slight chance for precip returns to the forecast by mid week, with increasing chances for rain by early in the following week as the upper level pattern becomes more amplified.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Some lower clouds and isolated pockets of fog will be over the higher elevations sites like JST and perhaps BFD early this morning.

Lower conditions will give way to VFR conditions by late morning, as a strong cold front moves south and east of the area. Winds will pick up and become gusty about 14Z.

By around 23Z early this evening, winds will drop off with clear skies overnight. Dewpoints fcst to drop into the 40s across much of the area, so fog will be limited.

A dry day expected on Tuesday, as high pressure builds into the area.

Outlook...

Tue-Wed...AM fog possible, otherwise mainly VFR.

Thu-Fri...Increasing SHRA/TSRA chances, mainly on Thu.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.