textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Dense Fog Advisory (DFA) allowed to expire * Severe thunderstorm risk for Saturday

KEY MESSAGES

1) Locally dense fog/low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous early this morning

2) Periods of beneficial rainfall precede the first severe weather risk of 2026 into the first weekend of March

3) Warmest temperatures since late Fall 2025 poised to arrive Saturday and early next week prior to modest to seasonable cool down into mid-month

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Locally dense fog/low visibility could make driving conditions hazardous early this morning

Fog has become locally dense (not as widespread) thanks to initial batch of rainfall exiting the eastern zones. Next round of rain already into far southwest PA poised to spread eastward through today.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Periods of beneficial rainfall precede the first severe weather risk of 2026 into the first weekend of March

On the heels of one of the driest winters on record, periods of beneficial rain (primarily thought tonight, but also on Saturday) are expected to bring some relief/marginal improvement particularly to D1-D2 drought conditions in central and eastern PA. Forecast rainfall totals over the next 24hrs ending 7AM Friday will range between 0.75-1.50 inches.

The first marginal and slight risk convective outlooks of 2026 including a portion of CPA have been issued by SPC for Saturday March 7th. The greatest tstm wind-damage threat will likely be in the late afternoon in the warm sector across western PA as a low-level jet consolidates and strengthens across the upper Ohio Valley. Increasingly limited instability with eastern extent should reduce the threat into the eastern portion of the Commonwealth.

Frontal showers crossing CPA into Saturday night should exit the CWA by Sunday morning - followed by 2-day stretch of dry wx lasting at least through next Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Warmest temperatures since late Fall 2025 poised to arrive Saturday and early next week prior to modest to seasonable cool down into mid-month

The infamous, temp-busting cold air damming pattern (complete with plenty of low clouds and periods of rain/drizzle) Thu & Fri will delay the arrival of April to May-like temps until Saturday with a resurgence of mid Spring warmth projected to ramp up next Monday into Wednesday. Temps will take a modest dip on Sunday behind a cold front with a more pronounced/relative (reverting closer to climo) cool down forecast by the end of next week.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions continue this morning as an area of rain continues to push eastwards across Central PA. A relative minimum in the coverage of rain is expected later this morning, but IFR conditions should continue over most of the region. The exception may be at JST and AOO, where a lot of the guidance suggests a period of MVFR or VFR may occur. That being said, the LAMP continues to show persistent IFR at those two sites as well and the current forecast leans closer to that solution.

Additional rounds of steady rainfall will move through the area this afternoon and evening. Some thunder cannot be ruled out at JST and AOO as weak elevated instability develops, but confidence is not high enough to include it in the TAF yet. Expect another night of IFR conditions at all TAF sites.

Outlook...

Fri...Stationary front across the region. Restrictions possible, especially across central/eastern airfields.

Sat...Restrictions remain possible, especially in the north and east. VFR most likely from KJST south and west, where winds could get gusty in the warm sector. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms likely with cold FROPA.

Sun...Trending towards VFR.

Mon...Restrictions possible as low-level moisture increases.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.