textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Humid with additional showers/thunderstorms possible late today through the first half of tonight along and ahead of a cold front moving south from New York state.

2) Seasonably cooler and less humid for later Thursday through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Humid with additional showers/thunderstorms possible late today through the first half of tonight along and ahead of a cold front moving south from New York state.

A weak ridge of high pressure over Central PA this morning will move east and off the New Jersey coast this afternoon allowing warm, humid air to push northeast across the state this afternoon and evening. Light wind and the clearing of mid and high clouds across the Northern Mtns early today will lead to areas of mainly light valley fog. Much of today will be partly to mostly sunny and dry, with a light NW breeze across the eastern half of the state, and a light southwesterly breeze over the west - freshening to around 10 kts this afternoon.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this evening until shortly after midnight, along and just ahead of a cold front that will be drifting south from New York State and a mid and upper level WNW jet max approaching from the Glakes region. HREF's MU CAPE rising to between 1000-1500 J/KG will create the opportunity for moderately strong updrafts and the potential for some isolated wind damage from peak gusts of 40-45 kts and small hail.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Seasonably cooler and less humid Friday and Saturday

Comfortably cooler and noticeably drier (less humid) air accompanies seasonably strong/Canadian high pressure building southeast from the Upper Midwest Friday night through Saturday.

Below normal pwats will facilitate pleasant days and crisp nights (40s and 50s most locations Friday night/AM Saturday).

AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Central PA TAF sites were reporting VFR as of 08Z, with the exceptions of KBFD and KJST respectively, where 1/2SM fog and low ceiling were occurring. Conditions will improve quickly after 13Z today with VFR dominating for the vast majority of the daylight hours today.

Scattered SHRA/TSRA will develop again shortly before dusk across Northern PA with storms moving East-Southeast and bringing brief IFR to MVFR conditions

Outlook...

Thu...Scattered showers/storms mainly across the southern Tier of PA. Restrictions possible.

Fri...Mainly VFR. A few showers or storms possible over southwestern PA.

Sat...Mainly VFR.

Sun...Restrictions poss in SHRA/TSRA.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.