textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* A short break on Sunday from the recent stormy weather.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. Still a chance for gusty winds and heavy downpours with localized flash flooding possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. Still a chance for gusty winds and heavy downpours with localized flash flooding possible.

Timing of showers and storms over Ohio will be such that much of central PA will not a lot of time to heat up today. ALso the airmass over much of the area has been worked over the last few days, and lower dewpoints are in place. Thus expect less coverage than on Friday. The one area that still has the higher dewpoints is across the southeast. This area will have the better chance to heat up today as well. Not a lot of shear, but CAPE is still up there.

Sunday looks like a break from the showers and storms, but with the advection of more humid and hot air again from the western states, and weak shortwaves moving along in a fairly fast west to east jet stream, showers and storms will be back in the area after Sunday again. The current pattern likely to hold for much of next week, before a cool down late week.

AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Some fog around the area as we head into sunrise here now, but more in the way of low CIGS in some spots like IPT, UNV, BFD, and LNS. Other sites still clear.

Main issue the next few hours will be area of showers and storms moving east around 30 mph from the western part of the state.

Also added in some more detail early Sunday morning for the upcoming 12Z TAF package.

More information below.

Storms have mostly cleared out of PA tonight without any more impacts expected at the terminals from them. Lingering low level moisture and radiational cooling have allowed for BFD and LNS to drop to IFR/LIFR conditions where it is expected they will remain for the rest of the night and into the early morning. Although LNS may lift in and out in the coming hours with some high clouds still traversing the area. With recent rainfall in the area and satellite showing fog development in Lycoming county, IPT is another terminal to watch for IFR restrictions tonight. Development in these restrictions less certain/may only be around sunrise at UNV and AOO.

Some high-res models have signal for a round of early convection in the early-to-mid morning moving through the northwest. This may affect BFD. During the afternoon, some gusts to 20kts are possible, most likely at BFD, JST, AOO, and UNV. Once again, scattered storms are possible in the afternoon with mentions as PROB30s. High PWATs and heavy downpours means that any of the storms may be capable of brief IFR visibility restrictions should they cross paths with a terminal.

Outlook...

Sat...Pockets of fog in the morning. Scattered showers/isolated t-storms with heavy downpours and localized restrictions.

Sun...Mostly dry, some potential for isolated showers across far W PA. Restrictions possible.

Mon-Wed...Scattered showers/storms. Restrictions possible.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.