textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Showers almost over in the S.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Today & Monday quiet but Tues looks active again with severe and flood risks returning.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Today & Monday quiet but Tues looks active again with severe and flood risks returning.

Just a few SHRA remaining in the Laurels as the cold front drags a little there. Otherwise, clearing is ensuing and some fog may develop by morning. Low clouds will linger most of the night in the N & W. These should dissipate quickly in the morning to result in a mostly sunny and drying day. Dewpoints mid-aftn s/b in the 50F N to u50s S. Low level smoke concentrations will increase overnight from N-S per latest HRRR model smoke forecast. But, the concentrations over the CWA will not be as noticeable as Thursday and Friday. The numbers will be highest over wrn PA, with hardly any smoke for ern PA.

Prev... Additional bouts of rain/t-storms are possible into the workweek. The first of which will be around Tuesday (Day4) as a well-developed synoptic storm moves through the Great Lakes and NE CONUS. SPC has been highlighting a 15% prob (equivalent to SLGT risk, level 2/5) for Central PA. Forcing/support for this medium range severe outlook appears fairly robust and would take stock in this risk manifesting at shorter ranges. WPC is also highlighting Tuesday for heavy rainfall and possible flooding with the synoptic system generating multiple chances for rain with high atmos moisture in place.

Temperatures will trend near to slightly below historical averages through late week into month-end with some noticeably cooler nights possible.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Convection has left the central Pennsylvania airspace, and satellite imagery shows high clouds moving out and clearing. With smoke and storms being ushered out along the cold front, a mixed bag of restrictions remain across the region. Most sites across the eastern half of our area remain VFR with smoke from the wildfires finally exiting the region and only mid to high level clouds remaining. Elsewhere, MVFR to IFR is present as low ceilings persist across the Allegheny front and central PA. Fog has also begun to develop anywhere clouds have cleared, with many places being very moist near the surface due to recent rain. The highest confidence for IFR fog will be at KJST and KBFD.

These restrictions are expected to remain for the rest of the early morning hours and just past daybreak on Sunday. Dryer conditions will persist for the next two days behind the front, and all airfields are expected to be VFR by 16Z today.

Outlook...

Mon...Mainly VFR.

Tue-Wed...Restrictions possible in showers/t-storms with cold FROPA expected between Tuesday/Wednesday.

Thu...VFR Conditions.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.