textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Another cold morning in store for central PA. Frost Advisory in place for some of our Eastern counties.

2) Extended stretch of dry and seasonal Fall weather this week, followed by a chance of rain on Sunday into Monday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Another cold morning in store for central PA. Frost Advisory in place for some of our Eastern counties.

High pressure will continue to slide east today, with winds shifting around to the SW. A frost advisory is in place for the portions of Eastern PA in the Middle Susquehanna Valley where conditions are expected to line up the best for frost.

------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Extended stretch of dry and seasonal Fall weather this week, followed by a chance of rain on Sunday into Monday.

High confidence in a prolonged stretch of dry and seasonable Fall weather this week. Expect cool nights and refreshing afternoons with low humidity through Saturday. Wednesday cannot rule out an isolated shower or two, especially in northwestern PA as a cold front moves into the area, but rainfall totals will be insignificant. A tropical system in the gulf will move up north towards the Ohio River Valley this weekend bringing tropical moisture and rain potential Sunday afternoon into Monday. This system looks fairly progressive. However, robust forcing and PWATs in the 1.5-1.75" range, particularly in the southern tier of the state, may yield some periods of heavy rain. Uncertainty remains regarding how this system plays out.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Mostly clear skies, light winds, and cool conditions will kick off the day as a ridge of high pressure overhead drifts east.

Patchy/light valley fog and low cigs will impact the KIPT area until 13Z while the rest of the Central PA and Lower Susq Valley airfields will stay VFR.

The sharp rise in the depth of vertical mixing between 14-16Z today will bring a south/southwest wind of 8-12 kt with gusts into the mid-upper teens.

A few high clouds could slide into the area this afternoon from the northwest, but no restrictions or impacts are anticipated.

Mentioned VCSH with high-end MVFR CIGS at KBFD after 00Z Thu as a several hour period of enhanced deep layer west/southwesterly flow and upward motion from warm advection develops (ahead of a weak cold front). LLWS was included at Central and Western PA TAF sites between 00-06Z Thu.

Outlook...

Thu-Sun. VFR conditions expected.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ049>053-058.