textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Extended stretch of dry weather with minor wind impacts from the strong coastal low this weekend

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Extended stretch of dry weather with minor wind impacts from the strong coastal low this weekend

A much needed break from the rain (following one of the wettest mid to late summer patterns on record) is expected over the next 7 days across the majority of central PA.

A strong coastal low developing offshore NJ/Long Island/southern New England could bring some light rain to the eastern third of the CWA (mainly east of US-15) later this weekend, but the main sensible weather impact from this system will be from the wind. Breezy conditions are expected Saturday and Sunday with max gusts 30-35 mph range over the higher terrain in the northeast portion of the forecast area.

As the stacked coastal low moves toward the Canadian Maritimes, temperatures are projected to rebound and climb several degrees above the historical average heading into the end of the month.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR will prevail across much of central Pennsylvania tonight through tomorrow given the drier air in place. Ceiling restrictions will be unlikely through the TAF period, with fog development also being unlikely for tonight due to E/NE flow ranging between 5-10 kts. Winds may diminish enough across NW PA Thursday night to produce valley fog, potentially bringing restrictions to KBFD, though VFR remains favored at this time. Thursday daytime winds will increase to between 7-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts, especially in the Lower Susq Valley. Marginal LLWS could be possible for KLNS and KMDT tonight.

Outlook...

Thu-Mon...VFR favored as a developing coastal low looks to bring subsidence overhead, though -RA and lower cloud ceilings associated with this system may reach our eastern terminals this weekend (20 pct chc).

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.