textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories issued for all of central PA from 11pm tonight through 9am Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread frost and freeze expected tonight.

2) Temperatures trend warmer for the beginning of next week ahead of a system that will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Widespread frost and freeze expected tonight.

Clearing skies and decreasing winds will allow for temperatures to fall into the 20s and 30s tonight, leading to widespread frost and freeze concerns. Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings have been issued for all of central Pennsylvania and are in effect from 11 pm tonight through 9 am Sunday. There was some question about whether or not winds would stay elevated enough over parts of southeast PA to preclude frost development, but it appears there will be enough potential for frost to include them in the advisory as well.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Temperatures trend warmer for the beginning of next week ahead of a system that will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday.

A warming trend begins tomorrow that continues through the middle of the week. Expect to see high temperatures in the 60s and 70s on Monday and Tuesday as southwesterly flow develops out ahead of the next frontal system that will move through the region. A few locations across south-central PA may even approach 80 degrees Tuesday afternoon. Scattered showers will be possible on Tuesday,especially across northwest PA, but the better chance for showers and thunderstorms looks to be on Wednesday and Thursday ahead of a slow moving cold front. Temperatures once again turn cooler behind this front, with potential frost/freeze concerns developing once again to end the week.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conds will persist across the region through the TAF period. There are some borderline MVFR cigs across the western highlands this afternoon, but these cigs are generally at or above 5kft east of the Allegheny Front. A W/NW breeze of 5-10 kts, and perhaps a gust to 15kts, will continue today as well.

Skies will clear this evening into the overnight period. Winds will generally go light and variable, although we may hold onto a 5-10 kt W/NW breeze across the Lower Susq Valley (MDT/LNS).

Sunday will feature continued VFR conds beneath partly sunny skies. The W/NW breeze will become a bit gustier, and could gust to around 20 kts by Sunday afternoon.

Outlook...

Sun night-Mon...Scattered -SHRA develop across wrn PA, and some thunder is possible by Monday PM.

Tue...SHRA/TSRA becomes more widespread from NW to SE; restrictions possible.

Wed...SHRA/TSRA continue; restrictions likely.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033-034-037-041-042-045-046. Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ035-036-049>053-056>059-063>066.