textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No significant changes

KEY MESSAGES

1) Potential for heavy rain and flooding Sunday-Tuesday 2) Outlook for first half of August is warm and wet

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Potential for heavy rain and flooding Sunday- Tuesday

Strengthening south-southwest flow in advance of a slow moving upper trough in the Ohio Valley will drive anomalous 1.5-2" PW into CPA along and ahead of an approaching cold front on Sunday. Strong warm advection and moisture transport/LLJ combined with favorable upper dynamics should support active/elevated convection reaching west-central PA as early as late Saturday night with max POPs centered on the 24hr Sunday window. Cloud cover and early day rain showers continue to cast a shadow on conditional severe wx potential through Sunday afternoon and evening; however stronger shear values amidst a relatively low CAPE environment is worth calling out particularly if there are breaks of sunshine.

It now appears there will be at least some potential for heavy rain/flooding through early next week as the upper trough closes off or trends slower to eject out of the Ohio Valley. While WPC trimmed the level 2/4 excessive rain outlook back a bit over NW PA for Sunday/D2, we will need to watch for sneaky +RA signal to shift over eastern portions of the CWA where the level 1 marginal risk will now extends all the way to the East Coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Outlook for first half of August is warm and wet

Medium and long range numerical weather prediction guidance signals a prolonged stretch of rainy and warm (but not hot) weather across Pennsylvania for the first two weeks of August. Ensemble accumulated rainfall plots show a steady increase in rainfall amounts and a notable absence of prolonged dry spells. This will be a significant difference from August of 2025, which saw hot and extremely dry conditions to start August. In fact, many locations saw zero rainfall in the first two weeks of August last year.

--------------------------------------------------------------- July = record-setting month in terms of convective warnings. WFO CTP issued 12 Tornado Warnings in July, which is the most since 1996 when we issued 25. 95 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings is the 3rd most in any July on record, behind 1996 (96) and 2021 (122). Year-to- date, 226 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings is the most on record, passing 2019 (221), and 24 Tornado Warnings is 4th most behind 1998 (55), 2011 (37), and 1996 (30). 250 total Severe Thunderstorm Warnings + Tornado Warnings is the most on record year-to-date, passing 2019 (241).

AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A nice moonrise here earlier, with just some high clouds over the area.

Expect this to be the case today with mainly high clouds, as a ridge of high pressure remains over the area.

Winds will pick up a bit later this morning and afternoon, but not real strong and will also weaken around or just after sunset.

Some lower clouds possible with VCSH across the far west around or just after 06Z Sun. Still expect VFR conditions across the west through 06Z Sun.

Overall looking at a much different weather pattern as we head into August. Some showers possible on Sunday, mainly across the west during the later part of the day. Much of the support for this weather system digs southwest into the TN vly. Thus risk of storms more limited than in past events and also showers could linger into mid week, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.

Outlook...

Sun...More widespread SHRA with PM TSRA possible. Restrictions likely for central and western airfields, especially in heavier SHRA/TSRA.

Mon...AM SHRA with PM TSRA possible. Restrictions possible, especially SE where chances for SHRA/TSRA are higher.

Tue...Upper-lvl low over the Ohio Valley may bring SHRA/TSRA with possible restrictions to the Commonwealth, though lower confidence in SHRA/TSRA compared to previous days.

Wed...Upper-lvl low moves out, but restrictions still possible in lingering SHRA/TSRA.

CLIMATE

Here are a few key climate callouts to wrap up July 2026:

2nd wettest at Bradford (7.78"/+3.62" above normal)

6th wettest at Altoona (6.18"/+2.70" above normal)

10th wettest at State College (6.09"/+2.30" above normal)

6th most # of days with maxT >=100F at Harrisburg (3) T3rd most # of days with maxT >=100F at Williamsport (2)

Looking ahead to August, the daylength decreases by 2-2.5 min/day with a total loss of daylight of ~ 70 minutes.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.