textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Made minor tweaks to temps/dewpoints in the next two days.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain-free and mild conditions will persist through the end of October

2) Trending wetter to start November

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain-free and mild conditions will persist through the end of October

In the wake of a moisture-deprived cold front last night, we'll see another dry day across the Commonwealth with very low dewpoints in northeast PA. Temperatures will be cooler than Monday, but still several degrees above normal for this time of year. The cold front will lift north again as a warm front on Wednesday, bringing increasing clouds but no rain chances.

Temperatures will trend warmer through Friday ahead of another cold front and then decrease a bit into the weekend. Saturday will be similar to Wednesday with increasing clouds but no rain. Daytime and overnight temperatures will be +5 to +15 degrees above average for this time of year through the weekend, providing great conditions for trick or treat. Whether neighborhoods are hosting beggars night on Halloween or moving it earlier, mild and dry conditions will prevail.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Trending wetter to start November

After not seeing a drop of rain in nearly 2 weeks, November will start off with a couple chances for rain. There remains some model uncertainty, but a trough should move through the central part of the United States early next week. This should deliver enough upper level support to generate some accumulating rainfall across the Commonwealth. Climate Prediction Center outlooks lean wetter than average for the first couple of weeks in November, though the signal is not super strong. Temperature trends favor above normal temperatures with much higher confidence. Notably, the monthly outlook for November begins to take on a classic El Nino pattern with above normal precipitation favored across the southeast US up through the I-95 corridor and below normal precipitation for the Great Lakes. This could set the stage for an active storm track bringing wet conditions to the Lower Susquehanna Valley while the northwest mountains continue their dry trend.

AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

A weak cold front over northern PA early this morning will continue to push southward and weaken today.

Overall looking at another fine fall day with just some clouds and temperatures close to what we normally have this time of year. No real strong winds either today.

For tonight, some clouds work in from the west late, but expect conditions to remain VFR.

No real change in conditions before later next Sunday.

Outlook...

Wed-Thu...VFR likely.

Fri...MVFR cigs possible mainly in the north and west due to a cold front.

Sat...Mainly VFR conditions.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.