textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No changes

KEY MESSAGES

1) An extended stretch of dry and seasonable weather continues through the rest of this week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: An extended stretch of dry and seasonable weather continues through the rest of this week

330 AM Update... Surface Temp/Dewpoint spreads of a few to several degrees were helping to greatly minimize the development of valley fog so far early today.

Aside from an ill-defined, weak cold front moving SE from the Lower Glakes region with nothing more than some shallow sct-bkn strato cu (topped by some areas of thin cirrus) across the NW Mtns during the second half of this morning, skies will stay clear under persistent high pressure over the Northeast U.S.

This dominant weather feature will continue our stretch of dry weather with seasonable temperatures for the rest of this week.

Temperatures to start the day today will range from near 30 degrees throughout the perennial cold spots in Central and Northern PA to the mid 30s and lower 40s in the south.

Patchy frost will be possible in the coldest spots across the Lower Susquehanna Valley where Lancaster and Lebanon Counties are still hanging onto the growing season based on the absence of widespread sub-freezing temps so far.

High temperatures will peak today in most places with mid afternoon readings ranging from the low 60s across the highest terrain in Northern PA to near 70 degrees in some of the Southern Valleys

Latest medium range model guidance indicates that the dry spell will continue into the final week of October. This rain- free pattern will be highlighted by a string of sunny and seasonably warm afternoons with low humidity followed by clear and chilly moonlit nights with areas of frost.

Another dry cold front moving through Wed night/early Thursday will be followed by a moderately gusty northerly wind (in the 20s - mph) on Thursday.

AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

High pressure and very dry air are allowing for continued dry conditions and clear skies across the majority of the forecast area this evening. Some valley fog across northwestern Pennsylvania is starting to form based on ECONUS Nighttime Microphysics; however, fog continues to remain west of all central Pennsylvania airfields. Current thinking based on observations and model guidance is that fog may make a closer approach to BFD closer to sunrise but overall expecting VFR conditions to continue through the overnight period.

As a coastal storm crawls slowly north into early tomorrow, a tightening pressure gradient has resulted in increasing N to NE flow. This has set up a period of low-end low-level wind shear for the eastern airfields (IPT, LNS, MDT) into early Tuesday morning as winds at the surface remain light due to a stable nocturnal boundary layer. Slightly after sunrise, diurnal heating will allow the stable boundary layer to give way to deeper mixing resulting in wind gusts in the 15-20 kt range for the eastern airfields.

Wed-Sat...Patchy AM fog and frost possible in the north and west; otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.