textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Multiday stretch of dry and tranquil weather this week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Multiday stretch of dry and tranquil weather this week

Lake effect rain and snow showers come to an end by Monday morning with stratocu clouds gradually decreasing into Monday night. Following a little taste of winter, a really nice stretch of late Autumn weather awaits.

A string of sunny and increasingly warmer days followed by mainly clear and chilly nights is ahead for the remainder of the week into the weekend. Fcst Max temps peak 10-20 degrees above the historical average Fri-Sun while nights will run closer to climo resulting in large diurnal ranges indicative of a prolonged late Autumn dry spell. Expect ideal conditions for outdoor pre-winter activities: raking leaves, set up holiday decorations, or enjoying time outside, it will be an very pleasant stretch of weather for mid-November.

With the resumption of another prolonged dry stretch, fire weather concerns could increase as we get later into November and December. Any particularly windy patterns with minimal precipitation could lead to an elevated risk of rapid wildfire spread.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Narrow bands of lake effect snow and rain showers will slowly taper off later today and overnight, as the low pressure system moves further east. Low CIGS and JST and BFD should come up some by 18Z Monday, but will be after 18Z at these sites to be VFR. Other locations will not be as low and will be VFR throughout the time period. The two sites that could be MVFR with CIGS overnight would be AOO and UNV.

Skies will continue to clear out after 18Z Monday, as high pressure from the Great Plains moves eastward. This high will provide the area with dry and sunny conditions the rest of the week after Monday.

Outlook...

Tue-Fri...VFR conditions to prevail.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.