textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No significant changes

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry forecast holds for the next 6-7 days

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry forecast holds for the next 6-7 days

We don't see any new evidence in our suite of model guidance to deviate away from our existing rain-free forecast.

A large high pressure system at the surface, along with a ridge axis aloft, will keep the Commonwealth rain-free through the early part of the upcoming work week. We do expect a cold front to drop southward across the region Monday night into early Tuesday, but with only shallow moisture levels to work with, just some patchy cloudiness and no rainfall are the expectations.

After a brief shot of seasonably cool air Tuesday into Wednesday, a warming trend is likely later in the week, along with continued rain-free conditions. At least southern portions of the Commonwealth should pop back into the 70s as we approach next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

High pressure over the area will result in clear skies and light winds tonight into Sunday and well into the upcoming week.

Under a strong inversion, there could be an isolated thin layer of haze and fog late at any location, as was the case just before sunrise at AOO this morning. For now, will leave fog out of the fcst for most of the TAF sites.

More info. below.

Will hold onto low clouds and fog at IPT, as this site has a higher chance for this type of condition (60 perent).

Some hints of return of Atlantic moisture around 9H into the southern tier tonight, and could make SCT- BKN clouds (MVFR/FL020-030) along and S of the MD border. But, the chcs are even lower that they (if they form) would impact any of our terminals. We did mention MVFR- level SCT clouds (not cigs) at JST and AOO.

Outlook...

Mon-Thu...VFR prevailing conditions.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.