textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Tweaks to near term temps/PoPs

KEY MESSAGES

1) Just a few showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected for tonight.

2) Drier, less humid weather returns to most of the area Saturday and lasts through Labor Day Weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Just a few showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected for tonight.

10 PM Update... Haven't changed much in the details. Not much to the cells that are out there right now. WPC has mentioned brief heavy rain and possibility of some repeat shots of rain in the rough axis where those cells are now (UNV to PHL). But, radar estimates are low. Cloud tops are not very cold, so they are short cells, but the warm clouds can be the ones that make heavy rain out of smaller droplets. So, we'll not discount the possibility that they could yet produce some heavy downpours. However, flooding does not appear to be likely at this point. Have nudged temps up a deg or two due to the decent amt of cloud cover out there.

Expectations are that some additional SHRA/TSRA will develop over OH as forcing comes down from lower MI. These will clip or get very close to the Laurels overnight. Again, some heavy downpours possible, but the threat is not high enough to warrant a watch at this point.

Previous... Large scale uplift is lacking - or even turned negative over the region late this aftn. There are some taller cu in two separate lines running NW-SE. We've left PoPs, but not more than 40s, in those areas through 05Z/midnight. But, confidence is low that much deep convection will develop. With the decided lack of rain on the regional radar mosaic and only small chances that any development will occur upstream of the flood watch area, we've dropped the flood watch.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Drier, less humid weather returns to most of the area Saturday and lasts through Labor Day Weekend.

A cold front draped across the PA/NY border will begin its southward surge tonight, helped by a deepening upper low over New England. This push of northeasterly winds at the surface will usher in cooler and much less humid air for Saturday and the remainder of Labor Day weekend. There could still be a few lingering showers in the southwest part of our area into Saturday morning, but coverage and intensity of storms will trend considerably lower. With cool temperatures aloft, we can't rule out the chance for an isolated shower or two on Saturday around the area along with widespread stratocumulus clouds. Saturday will still be a few degrees warmer than average for this time of year, but the real relief arrives by Saturday night. Dewpoints and low temperatures will fall into the upper 40s and 50s areawide by Sunday morning. Other than some morning valley fog, the weather will be really nice for the Sunday and Labor Day Monday. Highs mainly in the 70s and lows 45-55F both Sunday night and Monday night will be ideal for outdoor activities. Little if any rain is expected along with abundant sunshine. At this point, it looks like dry weather sticks around through at least midweek. After that, the ridge may build once again along with the associated chance for a return to the ring of fire.

AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

The main feature on radar at 01Z Saturday was a NW-SE oriented training band of rain showers stretching from 15 mi N of KFIG to KZER. No lightning yet but a few flashes can not be ruled out. There is about a 20 percent chance that these showers will impact MDT and LNS before 05Z. Breaks in the cloud cover and moist ground later tonight will bring lowering VSBYS/CIGS and areas of fog and low stratus. Any fog will quickly mix out within 90 minutes after sunrise Saturday with a light northerly breeze. There is still a 20-30% chc of SHRA/TSRA over JST and AOO on Sat. Cool air aloft and a pair of weak short wave troughs could be just enough to mar an otherwise excellent day for flying.

Outlook...

Sun-Tue...VFR favored; morning fog possible.

Wed...PM SHRA/TSRA possible in the northern tier.

EQUIPMENT

There is a phone line issue to the KJST ASOS platform. No obs going out long-line at this time. RTS unknown.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.