textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* A dry afternoon for a change.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Today and Monday dry, but potential for storms with heavy rain and damaging winds on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Today and Monday dry, but potential for storms with heavy rian and damaging winds on Tuesday.

Still areas of low clouds and fog, along with some smoke still this morning, but at least should remain dry for a change today.

Tuesday looks similar to what we had yesterday (Saturday) with high PW values, and strong dynamics, as an abnormally deep low tracks just north of the Lower Great Lakes. Already had 2 such deep systems this summer, this would be the thired one. Main threat from this will likely be strong storms with the potential for damaging winds. Also heavy rain, but like Saturday, speed of storms would likely limit the risk of widespread hydro problems. Main concern with hydro is having the activity in the same locations as where the rain was on Saturday. Some areas yesterday had 1 to 2 plus inches of rain, while some spots across the north and south had next to nothing. Some areas too wet so far this July, while others are still too dry from the lack of rain in June.

After mid week, temperatures will trend near to a bit below normal, as we head into the end of July.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Areas of lower clouds and fog this morning, along with some smoke still.

Thus a mixed bag of restrictions remain across the region the next several hours, before things improve.

Dryer conditions will persist for the next two days behind the front, and all airfields are expected to be VFR by 16Z today.

Outlook...

Mon...Mainly VFR.

Tue-Wed...Restrictions possible in showers/t-storms with cold FROPA expected between Tuesday/Wednesday.

Thu...VFR Conditions.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.