textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Minor adjustments to forecast snow accumulation for tonight

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain and wet snow later today into tonight with limited minor accumulation most likely (C-1") over east-central PA

2) Mid-February thaw continues for most of this week with temperatures remaining above the historical average

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain and wet snow later today into tonight with limited minor accumulation most likely (C-1") over east-central PA

Latest guidance as well as trends in radar imagery and temp obs continue to point to mostly light rain as precip begins across south central PA this afternoon, with snow at higher elevations. As temps cool tonight, precip will likely become mostly snow where precip is still falling (Susq Valley and east) with a wet/slushy (low SLR) accumulation of between a coating and 1 inch in that area area. Highest chance (25 pct) for more than 1 inch of snow in central PA would be eastern Schuylkill Co. KEY MESSAGE 2: Mid-February thaw continues for most of this week with temperatures remaining above the historical average

Stretch of above average warmth for mid February continues through most of this week with highs in the 40s to lower 50s. A seasonable cool down is likely by next weekend.

After mainly dry start to the week, rounds of precip are likely Wednesday and again Friday into the weekend. Rain is the dominant ptype with some mixed precip potential primarily over the northern tier.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Rain continues to move over the eastern half of our airspace, bringing reductions in visibility and ceilings to MDT and LNS. Elsewhere is experiencing lowering ceilings and the beginnings of fog development where rain occurred earlier today. Temperatures across the southeast are still above freezing and a transition to snow looks less likely as we move through the early evenings, but the best possibility for snow remains at LNS. Confidence is high in IFR ceilings across the entire area tonight, with any site that saw rain today likely to develop fog as well as temperatures cool.

Any snow and rain will be out of the area by early Monday morning, but lower ceilings and visibilities will linger into Monday morning. In fact, IFR ceilings could linger at BFD/JST into Monday afternoon. Brightening skies will build in on Monday, with dry conditions prevailing. VFR will return to all sites east of JST/BFD by 18Z Monday.

Outlook...

Mon-Tue...Persistent low clouds/vis overnight, slow improvement each afternoon

Wed...IFR -RA/cigs N, MVFR -RA/cigs elsewhere.

Thu-Fri...Sct -RA, restrictions possible

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.