textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Lowered QPF slightly across the board. * Delayed onset of the light precip Tues night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Turning warmer for Tuesday and Wednesday.

2) Low pressure tracking just to the north and west of the area should bring some light snow to much of the area late Wednesday into early Thursday. Cold temps Thursday likely keep the light precip all snow.

3) Lull and quiet wx for Fri will be followed by a complex series of waves for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Warm advection with a minor wave aloft Tuesday night should keep temps mild (over freezing everywhere but BFD). Without much moisture to work with and low PoPs, we'll not have much worry for p-type on Tuesday night. Maxes will be in the upper 40s over all of the S on Tues and SE on Wed.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Cold front moving through Wed captures a little moisture. But, the available moisture seems to have trended lower over the past 2 cycles. The forcing isn't focused until mid-day Wed, first over the west. A band of lift may (also) develop over the eastern third of the CWA in response to the favorable position of two jet maxes, but mainly the right entrance quad of a 130KT jet moving poleward. Temps should stay plenty mild for the SErn half of the area to be all rain on Wed/Wed evening. Temps over the NW will be warm at first, but dynamic cooling and loss of solar help will turn it to snow by the end of the day. As temps get colder Wed evening/night, the lingering precip in the east should turn to snow as it ends. Major models all have precip ending (well) before sunrise Thurs in the central and eastern zones. The post-frontal flow gets gusty and cold really comes on strong. SHSN are expected and will add another inch or so to what's on the ground at midnight Wed night there.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Moderate uncertainty exists in the pattern for Sat-Sun, mainly in the timing of a series of waves from the west. Long wave trough moving across the nrn plains and Great Lakes will drive the bus. But, the details are tough to pinpoint at this range. A final burst of arctic air is possible and best timing on that right now would be Sat night or Sun. SNSQs possible as that would move through with a sharp/quick/deep drop in temps. Wind chills could also near advy criteria

AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

High confidence in widespread VFR flying today through tonight. LLWS expected at all terminals during the 13/06Z TAF period, starting in the north around 18Z Tue and closer to 00Z Wed in the southeast part of the airspace.

Expect lowering/deteriorating conditions Wednesday as light rain mixes with and changes to snow Wednesday night. A blustery west wind will deliver much colder air by Thursday morning.

Outlook...

Wed...MVFR/IFR in rain/snow. Wind shift from 240-270 to 270-300 degrees Wednesday night with gusts increasing to 20-30kt.

Thu...MVFR/IFR snow showers persisting across the western and northern airspace; windy with sfc gusts 25-35kt from 280-310. Winds decrease Thursday night.

Fri...Snow and IFR most likely over the NW airspace. Breezy with gusts from 180 degrees 15-25kt.

Sat...Light snow/IFR possible.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.