textproduct: State College
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WHAT HAS CHANGED
* No changes
KEY MESSAGES
1) Extended stretch of dry and seasonable weather this week
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Extended stretch of dry and seasonable weather this week
10 PM Update... Dewpoints are recovering over the NW from mid-afternoon depths. Some fog is possible tonight in the valleys, but the dryness of the airmass does argue against it. Without real support to remove the small mention of patchy fog in the grids, we'll just keep it in there.
Previous discussion... Persistent high pressure over the Northeast U.S. will provide an extended stretch of dry and seasonable weather this week. Tonight won't be as cold as the past few nights have been, but we should still see temperatures drop into the upper 30s and low 40s. Patchy frost will be possible in the coldest spots, but not in the areas where the growing season is still active. The latest model data shows the dry spell continuing into the final week of October. This rain- free pattern will feature a string of sunny and seasonably warm afternoons with low humidity followed by clear and chilly moonlit nights with areas of frost.
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
High pressure and very dry air in place will make for clear skies tonight into Tuesday.
There could be some VCFG and sct lower clouds at BFD, but even there most if not all the time tonight will be clear, given how low the dewpoints are late this aft.
As a coastal storm crawls slowly north tonight into early tomorrow, the pressure gradient between the storm and a reinforcing shot of high pressure will result in increasing N to NE flow. This will likely first set up a period of low level wind shear for the eastern airfields (IPT, LNS, MDT) late tonight into early Tuesday morning as winds at the sfc will remain light due to a stable nocturnal boundary layer, and winds at 2000 ft increase into the 30-35 kt range. After a couple hours of diurnal heating on Tuesday, the stable boundary layer will give way to deeper mixing resulting in wind gusts in the 15-20 kt range for the eastern airfields.
Wed-Sat...Patchy AM fog and frost possible in the north and west; otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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