textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Flood Watch previously in effect until 20Z has been cancelled

KEY MESSAGES

1) Seasonably cooler and tranquil/pleasant weather conditions forecast to move into the region tonight and last right through the last weekend of May

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonably cooler and tranquil/pleasant weather conditions forecast to move into the region tonight and last right through the last weekend of May

A sharp, deep-layer, North/South Theta-E gradient over that part of our CWA (noted via the latest RAP run) along with WoFS data indicates that at best, another 0.25-0.50" of rain will occur over the next 2-3 hours across far Southern Somerset County.

This amount of additional rain will not pose a flooding threat, especially considering the several hour break in the rainfall across that area late this morning and early this afternoon.

The rest of the forecast is pretty much on track with predominantly dry conditions across Central and Northern PA and afternoon high temps ranging from a few deg below normal (low 70s) over the Laurel Highlands, to as much as 8-10 deg F above normal (upper 70s-low 80s) over the NE (where the most sun will occur "ahead" of a cold front).

Isolated showers are possible near and just in advance of the frontal boundary across Central and Northern PA late today/ this evening, but any rainfall will likely be very brief and amount to just a few hundredths of an inch.

A light west, then northwest breeze and neg llvl theta-E advection overnight should help to keep the T/Td spread at least a few to several deg F wide in most places, but some patchy fog is expected across Southern PA where rain fell today and the wind could go calm at times.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Seasonably cooler and tranquil/pleasant weather conditions forecast Thursday through the last weekend of May

The mainly-dry cold frontal passage later tonight/early Thursday will be followed by cooler and drier/less humid air for Thursday followed by high pressure building SE into the COmmonwealth through the late week period.

Reinforcing troughing over the Northeast should result in near to below normal temperatures (seasonably cool) and low to nil precipitation chances for the last weekend of May.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Conditions will be generally VFR across all of Central PA TAF for the rest of this afternoon, through tonight and Thursday. Any brief MVFR CIGS and VSBYS in Showers will be south of KJST late today, generally south of the PA/MD border.

A cold front will cross the region late today and tonight, possibly preceded/accompanied by a brief shower.

West-Northwest across the region will become northwest behind the front and a much drier airmass will move into Pennsylvania.

Outlook...

Thu-Sun...VFR with no significant weather expected.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.