textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Minor adjustments to temps, sky cover and pops per latest CAM guidance

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warmer and more humid conditions push into the region today with the highest odds for rain Thursday

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Warmer and more humid conditions push into the region today with the highest odds for rain Thursday

Fair, dry weather will continue through this Wednesday morning across much of Central and Southern PA, while mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers and thunderstorms will be found across the Northwest Mountains and Erie Lakeshore Region.

A plume of anomalously high moisture will stream into the state from the west today. A large jump in Precipitable Water (from around 1 inch this morning to 2 inches this afternoon - right into Thursday night) will precede and accompany a cold front that was located over Southern Lake Huron and Southern Michigan this morning.

The cfront will interact with the warmer/much higher dewpoint air (in the 60s to low 70s) and trigger scattered showers and a few t-storms today (mainly across northern PA). At this time, severe storms are not expected with only a limited/marginal risk of locally heavy rainfall across the western Alleghenies.

HREF 6-hour QPF Prob-Matched Mean values are generally between about 0.10-0.20 of an inch this afternoon, and limited to mainly the Western Half of PA. Highly localized 0.30-0.50 inch amounts are possible by dusk this evening. More widespread showers and isolated, embedded TSRA will follow for tonight and Thursday. 24 hour QPF ENS Localized (110 km) PMM values average between 0.2-0.5 of an inch with some highly localized 1-1.5 inch values (well below the FFG threshold for any flooding concerns ATTM.

The cold front will clear the Southern PA border Thursday night.

Much cooler air with low dewpoints will follow for Friday and Saturday. Thickening cloud cover will bring the next chance for rain later Saturday night into Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

A nice morning for most of the area. The main issue the next few hours will be showers and storms moving across the BFD area.

More information below.

Thus most of today will be VFR conditions with a few showers late this evening and overnight into early Thursday at other sites. Far southeast sites like MDT and LNS not likely to see any showers until later Thursday, as the cold front slowly works to the south and east.

Outlook...

Thu-Sun...Increasing SHRA/TSRA chances, mainly on Thu, restrictions possible.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.