textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Increased sky cover through the rest of today and at least the first half of tonight. Greatest nudge up by 20+ percent will be across the Northern and Western Mtns early tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Nor'easter moves away south of and parallel with the Southern New England Coast, leading to a dry and warmer than normal stretch of weather through Thursday.

2) Cold front moves in late in the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Nor'easter moves away south of and parallel with the Southern New England Coast, leading to a dry and warmer than normal stretch of weather through Thursday.

The center of the Nor'easter was located about 100 NM SE of KNYC this midday hour and moving gradually ENE.

The low is also slowly filling, leading to much lighter northwesterly breeze with some minor gusts into the low-mid teens.

Widespread, thick stratocu will cover the CWA today with some mid-lat afternoon breaks possible in downslope areas across the Lower Susq and adjacent SE PA. Near 100 pct sky cover will persist through at least early tonight across the Laurel Highlands and NW Mtns of PA, while

The cloud cover will break slowly overnight, but more so on Tuesday as a large sfc high builds NE from the Lower Ohio Valley.

Temps will max out in the 60s today. With the clouds still hanging around for much of the area, temps won't fall more than 10-12F thru the night. We'll add 5-6F to the maxes for Tues and add a few degs more Wed and Thurs, too. The dewpoints do inch up each day, too, and will be 55-65F on Thurs as maxes get to 75-85F. Pretty summer- like. Probably not too much fog tonight/Tues AM, but the sky should be more- clear than cloudy Tues PM and Wed AM. That should allow for some river valley fog.

-----------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Cold front moves in late in the week.

A cold front will approach from the Upper Great Lakes, slowing a bit as it moves through the region. Moisture will be pretty limited as it moves through the CWA Thurs PM and Fri. NBM PoPs (60s NW, 30s SE) may actually be a little high. But, at this range, it's probably not worth trying to tweak them. It looks like the front will then get hung up and stretch west to east over VA. At that point, a surge of moisture associated with the remnants of Polo will move through the OH and TN Valleys. The moisture will overrun the old front and likely bring rain and cooler temps for the weekend.

AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

LIFR ceilings at JST will persist into the mid afternoon hours with all other TAF sites remaining MVFR through this afternoon.

A slackening pressure gradient will result in lighter winds today (compared to Sunday) as the Nor'easter lifts northeastward toward Cape Cod.

This will cause winds from the northwest for the rest of today and early tonight, before going nearly calm late.

As this happens, downslope winds east of the Allegheny Front will promote rising ceilings. While ceilings likely stay MVFR for much of central PA, we should see VFR...bkn-ovc cigs return to MDT and LNS by late afternoon. Ceilings lower again after sunset and IFR will be possible everywhere except MDT and LNS in low clouds and fog.

Outlook...

Tue...Gradual improvement, MVFR lingers at higher elevations (BFD, JST) in a typical northwest flow pattern.

Wed...Sunshine returns, mostly VFR.

Thu...Chance of showers late PM, some restrictions possible.

Fri...Cold FROPA with showers along the front.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.