textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Freeze Watch continues for Friday night for Lancaster and Lebanon Counties. * Adjustments to near-term temperatures due to cloud cover across the northern tier.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry weather continues into the last week of October.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry weather continues into the last week of October.

A dry cold front will push south of the Mason-Dixon Line early today. In the wake of the cfront, a brief, several-hour uptick in north to northeasterly wind will occur across the Susq Valley and points east during the mid to late morning hours today.

PWAT values will once again decrease to 0.25 of an inch or less for the midday and afternoon hours today as sfc high pressure builds into the region with a pronounced upper level ridge developing over the eastern US. This will keep dry conditions around through at least the beginning of next week with seasonably warm days and chilly nights.

HREF probs of temperatures falling below freezing late tonight and early Sat are 50 percent or less for Lancaster and Lebanon Counties (the only zones where the growing season remains active).

NAM and GFS MOS guidance have shown a slight increase to 33-36F in both of those counties. This trend (albeit with still very favorable set up for efficient radiational cooling), has led us to hold onto (for another model cycle) the Freeze Watch for tonight/Saturday morning.

Widespread frost appears likely acrs much of these 2 counties (and elsewhere across the rest of the CWA), but there is still some question if we'll see many sub-freezing min temps in the current Watch area.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions due to high pressure and dry weather will continue into this weekend. Outside of patchy valley fog in the north and brief MVFR cigs possible early this morning (mainly BFD), there are very low probabilities of reductions to flight categories. Wind gusts of 15-20 kts will remain possible across the southeast today in N to NE flow, with lighter winds towards the northwest, closer to the center of the high.

Sat-Tue...VFR prevailing conditions.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for PAZ059-066.