textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

*No significant changes to the previous forecast

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mild week ahead as the calender flips to April with passing showers and periods of rain leading up to Easter Sunday

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Mild week ahead as the calender flips to April with passing showers and periods of rain leading up to Easter Sunday

Evolving WAA pattern favors a gradual uptick in the chance of rain early this week. HREF mean suggests some passing light rain showers could arrive as early as Monday morning in the western mtns, with a better rain/QPF signal emerging over the northern tier on Tuesday. Forcing appears rather nebulous for tomorrow aside from a couple of weak disturbances aloft. Cold front trailing quick moving sfc low tracking from WI to ME on Tuesday supports best odds for rain late Tuesday/Tuesday night over northern PA which is located on the southern edge of SPC D3 MRGL risk.

The aforementioned cold front becomes quasi-stationary and pivots over CPA on Wed as the pattern amplifies upstream across the western and central U.S. later this week. This sets up CAD signature for Thursday with sfc low tracking through the Lower Great Lakes. Trailing front tied to this low also wavers over PA late in the week and links up with a 3rd Upper Midwest sfc low to keep rain chances in the forecast for Easter weekend. Overall, the pattern to close out March and begin April 2026 looks be on the mild side of climo with periods of rain. Max rainfall/QPF footprint extends from the mid MS Valley through the eastern Great Lakes with northwest PA most likely to pick up >1" over the next 7 days.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions prevail until early Monday. A swrly lljet of 35-45KT will increase overnight. Not only will it create LLWS on Mon (mainly W), but it will bring in moisture for the lowest 6kft of the atmos. The moisture will pile up against the Laurels and Alleghenies (JST/BFD). IFR cigs are poss (40%) at BFD during the day on Monday, but it will take a while to dip that low, if they do. Other locations should (90%) stay well above IFR cigs, but MVFR cigs are possible (40-60 pct chc) at JST, AOO, and UNV. An isold patch or two of light rain is possible out of the thicker clouds in the W and perhaps at MDT/LNS, too, in the morning as a upper wave passes overhead.

Outlook...

Tue...Chance -SHRA, slight chc (20%) -TSRA, mainly west.

Wed...NMRS SHRA with TSRA poss (40%). CFROPA late day or early night.

Thu-Fri...Sct to numerous SHRA. MVFR likely (70%).

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.