textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Leaned lower for max/min temps today and tonight * Leaned lower for dewpoints during the afternoon Sat & Sun * Added patchy fog/frost to the northern tier of CPA tonight

KEY MESSAGES

1) Refreshingly cool and breezy start to the last weekend of May

2) Pleasant, rain-free dry spell with low humidity to end May and start June

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Refreshingly cool and breezy start to the last weekend of May

0500 UTC sfc obs show a mainly dry cold front/wind shift near the I-80 corridor with pressure-rise induced wind gusts from the north maximized at 25-35 mph range over the Endless Mtns and Poconos. The front will south of the MD line by daybreak with refreshingly cool/dry Canadian air pouring into CPA to start the last weekend of May.

Highs in the upper 50s to near 70F this afternoon will be 5 to 15 degrees below climo. Max wind gusts are fcst in the 30-40 mph range the over the eastern portion of the area early today in conjunction with pressure rises to the west of deep sfc low exiting the New England coast/Cape Cod.

A relatively chilly overnight period by the end of May climo standards with patchy fog/frost added to parts of the northern tier. Confidence has increased in lower min temps vs. NBM given favorable low pwat/dewpoint radiational cooling setup; expect the usual cold spots to print lows in the mid-upper 30s early Sunday morning.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Pleasant, rain-free dry spell with low humidity to end May and start June

Persistent, high-amplitude omega blocking pattern over the northern CONUS will bring an extended stretch of rain-free (dry) weather to close out May and start off June.

The pleasant and refreshing conditions (with near to slightly cooler than average temperatures) are fcst trend warmer by late next week with more summerlike conditions projected by the first weekend of June.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Mostly VFR again today as we settle into a postfrontal environment. Mixing and deepening of the boundary layer should scatter out the cloud deck moving in from the north in the next few hours and raise cloud bases. Some MVFR can't be ruled out though (12Z-15Z) at BFD and IPT while the cloud deck is still somewhat intact.

Winds will be gusty and out of the north at the surface this morning. Gustiest conditions will be present at the eastern TAF sites Sat morning with some gusts of 30-35kts possible. The breeziness looks to taper off during the afternoon, shutting off Sat night. Winds will be light and variable Sat night.

Outlook...

Sat-Mon...VFR with no significant weather expected.

Tue...Watching for isolated shower activity, restrictions possible

Wed...Mostly VFR with high pressure building in

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.