textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Increased sky cover next 36 hrs

KEY MESSAGES

1) Nor'easter moves away today, leading to a warmer than normal but otherwise unremarkable stretch of weather through Thursday.

2) Cold front moves in late in the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Nor'easter moves away today, leading to a dry and warmer than normal stretch of weather through Thursday.

The low to our east is already filling nicely, leading to a big reduction in wind/gusts. Some places may go calm by morning but return to 5-10mph with no sig gusts in the fore-noon. Clouds will be tough to get rid of today and should only start to break slowly, with much of the CWA staying cloudy tonight and Tues AM. But, the subsidence under a big sfc high will help us improve on Tues. Temps will max out in the 60s today. With the clouds still hanging around for much of the area, temps won't fall more than 10-12F thru the night. We'll add 5-6F to the maxes for Tues and add a few degs more Wed and Thurs, too. The dewpoints do inch up each day, too, and will be 55-65F on Thurs as maxes get to 75-85F. Pretty summer-like. Probably not too much fog tonight/Tues AM, but the sky should be more- clear than cloudy Tues PM and Wed AM. That should allow for some river valley fog.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Cold front moves in late in the week.

A cold front will approach from the Upper Great Lakes, slowing a bit as it moves through the region. Moisture will be pretty limited as it moves through the CWA Thurs PM and Fri. NBM PoPs (60s NW, 30s SE) may actually be a little high. But, at this range, it's probably not worth trying to tweak them. It looks like the front will then get hung up and stretch west to east over VA. At that point, a surge of moisture associated with the remnants of Polo will move through the OH and TN Valleys. The moisture will overrun the old front and likely bring rain and cooler temps for the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

The progression of weather conditions through this TAF period will be best explained through the lens of wind direction. Overnight, northeast winds aloft rotating around the north side of a Nor'easter will continue to bring low clouds and some rain showers across the region. LIFR conditions have developed BFD and JST, while all other sites remain MVFR or VFR. MVFR is favored at these sites through the rest of the night, but a few drops to IFR cannot be ruled out.

A slackening pressure gradient will result in lighter winds into Monday as the Nor'easter lifts northeastward toward Cape Cod. This will cause winds to shift around to be out of the northwest for most of the day. As this happens, downslope winds east of the Allegheny Front will promote rising ceilings. While ceilings likely remain MVFR for much of central PA, we should see VFR return to MDT and LNS by late afternoon. Ceilings lower again after sunset and IFR will be possible everywhere except MDT and LNS in low clouds and fog.

Outlook...

Tue...Gradual improvement, MVFR lingers at higher elevations (BFD, JST) in a typical northwest flow pattern.

Wed...Sunshine returns, mostly VFR.

Thu...Chance of showers late PM, some restrictions possible.

Fri...Cold FROPA with showers along the front.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.