textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No significant changes

KEY MESSAGES

1) Frost/Freeze early Sunday morning ends growing season for some areas

2) Extended stretch of dry and seasonable weather this week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Frost/Freeze early Sunday morning ends growing season for some areas

Keystone Mesonet obs at 3AM/7Z are generally below the freezing mark across the western and northern Alleghenies (along and NW of I99 and I80). With several more hours of ideal radiational cooling, expect min temps around daybreak to bottom in the 25-30F range. We expect the freeze to end the growing season for some areas. Additional frost/freeze headlines may be needed over the next few nights where the growing season stays active.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Extended stretch of dry and seasonable weather this week

Persistent high pressure over the Northeast U.S. will provide an extended stretch of dry and seasonably weather this week. Some model data suggests the protracted, consecutive day dry spell could last into the final week of October. This pattern will feature a string of seasonably warm afternoons with low humidity followed by chilly nights with areas of frost.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

The presence of high pressure leads to a virtually certain forecast with respect to VFR conditions across all of central Pennsylvania through 06Z Monday. Clear skies and wind generally under 5KT will be prevalent throughout the TAF period with very high (> 90%) confidence at this time. The only real aviation- related concerns will be the presence of widespread frost this morning across all of central Pennsylvania and the outside (< 20%) chance for VCFG at BFD given valley fog already showing up on Nighttime Microphysics as of 05Z. General thinking is that fog will make a close approach to BFD in the 09-11Z timeframe before rapidly mixing out in the 12-13Z timeframe with no restrictions at the airfield.

Mon-Thu...Patchy AM fog possible with AM frost likely; otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ004-006- 010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066.