textproduct: State College
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* Flood Watch issued for the southern Alleghenies & Laurel Highlands until 12AM Wednesday
KEY MESSAGES
1) Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding possible in south central PA this afternoon into tonight
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding possible in south central PA this afternoon into tonight
Considerable breaks in the clouds has allowed for convective development over southwest PA late this morning into the early afternoon. High moisture content environment remains in place with slow moving showers/storms capable of producing intense rain rates. Cumulative rainfall over the past few days has lead to increased soil sensitivity and significantly reduced FFG. Hires ensemble guidance (HREF/REFS) shows the southern Alleghenies and Laurels Highlands with the highest odds for localized 2-3" rainfall amounts. WPC has maintained a level 2/4 excessive rain risk for this area and we issued a flood watch until 12AM Wed to highlight the short-term flooding threat.
Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through the end of the week, especially Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will be seasonable with highs generally in the low to mid 80s.
AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Plenty of low level moisture still in place across the region. Areas east of a KBFD-KDUJ-KAOO line will keep the MVFR ceilings through the first half of the night. Brought these locations down to IFR or LIFR in BR/FG. Confidence is high (>70%) for LIFR in FG at KUNV as it has for the past several mornings.
The remainder of sites will hold at VFR throuigh most of the night with an occasional dip to MVFR. Winds will remain less than 5 kts overnight.
Model guidance does indicate a slow improvement trend after 12Z Wednesday, thus have continued the trend of increasing visibilities and ceilings during the mid and late day. Winds will shift to a general southerly direction but will remain less than 8kts.
Outlook...
Thu-Fri...Mainly dry early. Numerous to many SHRA/TSRA during the afternoon. Intermittent impacts likely.
Sat-Sun...Chance of showers and a few storms.
CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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