textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Minor adjustments to temps tonight and dewpoints midweek * Minor adjustments to POPs based on latest CAMs

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warmer and more humid conditions return into midweek with highest odds for rain Thursday

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Warmer and more humid conditions return into midweek with highest odds for rain Thursday

Latest CAMs support a modest increase in POPs across the northern tier of CPA late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Temps, dewpoints, and precip probs trend higher on Wednesday and peak on Thursday. A weak frontal boundary sinking southeast from the Lower Great Lakes will interact with the warmer/higher dewpoint air and trigger scattered showers and a few t-storms through midweek. At this time, severe storms are not expected with only a limited/marginal risk of locally heavy rainfall across the western Alleghenies.

Confidence in a dry end to the week has increased as slightly cooler and drier/lower pwat air arrives from the north behind the aforementioned front. Precip trends from later in the weekend into early next week are wetter on the margin for this cycle and will need to monitor for potential +RA signal.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Looking at mainly clear skies and VFR conditions overnight. A shower or storm will be near the NY, PA border later on again, but mainly at BFD later today.

Thus most of today will be VFR conditions with a few showers late this evening and overnight into early Thursday at other sites. Far southeast sites like MDT and LNS not likely to see any showers until later Thursday, as the cold front slowly works to the south and east.

Outlook...

Thu-Sun...Increasing SHRA/TSRA chances, mainly on Thu, restrictions possible.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.