textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* A Freeze Warning has been issued for York County and a Frost Advisory has been issued for Lancaster and Lebanon Counties for tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Frost/freeze tonight for areas where the growing season remains active.

2) Extended stretch of dry and seasonable weather this week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Frost/freeze tonight for areas where the growing season remains active.

Widespread temperatures below freezing this morning have resulted in the growing season coming to an end for most of Central PA with the exception of York, Lancaster, and Lebanon Counties. Another night of efficient radiational cooling is expected as high pressure will be directly overhead, providing clear skies with light winds. Low temperatures will range from the upper 20s to mid 30s, with some of the normal cold spots likely seeing temperatures drop to around 25. Out of the zones where the growing season remains active, York County will have the best chance of seeing a widespread freeze so we have issued a Freeze Warning for them. A Frost Advisory has been issued for Lancaster and Lebanon Counties as well. While those counties may have some locations that see temps fall below freezing, lows in the 33-35 degree range appear more likely.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Extended stretch of dry and seasonable weather this week.

Persistent high pressure over the Northeast U.S. will provide an extended stretch of dry and seasonable weather this week. Some model data suggests the dry spell could last into the final week of October. This pattern will feature a string of seasonably warm afternoons with highs in the 60s along with low humidity followed by chilly nights with areas of frost.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon with abundant sunshine. Winds will be light and variable as surface high pressure tracks across the region. Favorable conditions for radiational cooling tonight will again lead to widespread frost and patchy valley fog into Monday morning. The fog is expected to be more limited in area compared to Saturday night due to slightly drier low levels. Prob of IFR or lower restrictions at IPT between 10-13Z Monday stands at 30%. By Monday afternoon, N to NE winds will increase to 5-10 kts in the Lower Susq Valley in response to a coastal storm east of Cape Hatteras. The same storm system may also produce thin high clouds over eastern airfields later Monday.

Tue...Restrictions possible in the north and west in the AM due to fog and low stratus. Breezy with N to NE winds gusting to 20 kts.

Wed-Fri...Patchy AM fog and frost possible in the north and west; otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for PAZ059-066. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for PAZ065.