textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Marginal severe t-storm risk (level 1/5) added to the far northwest and southeastern portions of CPA for Saturday PM

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periods of light rain/showers through Mother's Day weekend

2) Frost/freeze risk Monday night into Tuesday morning over the western and central Alleghenies

3) Cool/unsettled pattern through much of next week; sizable warmup on the horizon? into third week of May

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Periods of light rain/showers through Mother's Day weekend

Isolated to scattered rain showers will continue across the northern 2/3 of CPA (mainly north of US-22) into the evening.

A zone of steadier light rain is fcst to pivot over the area later tonight into Saturday morning. The steadier light rain Saturday morning tapers back to a more showery/limited rain duration type pattern through the afternoon with an isolated strong t-storm possible in the NW and SE corners of the CWA (newly introduced MRGL risk SWO from SPC D2 1730Z update). A few showers linger into Sunday with primary rain signal targeting the southeast half of CPA late Sunday night through Monday morning. While there are plenty of rain "chances" through Mother's Day weekend, it won't be a total washout with total rainfall hard-pressed to exceed 0.50 inch over 2-3 day period. Rain ends/shifts to the east by Monday evening.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Frost/freeze risk Monday night into Tuesday morning over the western and central Alleghenies

Confidence is increasing for another frost/freeze situation Monday night into early Tuesday morning over the western and central Alleghenies (to the northwest of I-81). No precip expected during this time.

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KEY MESSAGE 3: Cool/unsettled pattern through much of next week; sizable warmup on the horizon? into the 3rd week of May

Mean troughing keeps cool/unsettled pattern in place through much of next week with below normal temperatures and several opportunities for rain next Wednesday-Friday.

There are signs of a pattern shift starting next weekend (~May 15-16) that returns more typical/warmer late Spring conditions to central PA heading into Memorial Day or the "unofficial" start of Summer.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As been the case this Spring, showers will track across the northern tier of PA today, tapering off from west to east later this aft. Still expect some showers over the southeast areas, but lighter amts. Main sites to have MVFR and IFR conditions will be mainly at BFD, and at times JST and IPT.

A break expected between systems later this afternoon, before the next shortwave moves into the northwest early this evening. With very cold air aloft, there could be a gusty shower or even a thunderstorm after sunset, mainly at BFD.

Another shortwave will bring another chance for showers and lower conditions again later on Sunday.

Outlook...

Sun...VFR favored early, with restrictions becoming more likely in the afternoon as another cold front moves SE. SHRA with isolated TSRA possible as cold front passes through.

Mon-Tue...VFR conditions expected to prevail.

Wed...Restrictions possible with rain.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.