textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Snowfall amounts continue to trend downward for Saturday night into Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mild end to February/meteorological winter 2025-2026.

2) Light rain and snow Saturday night/Sunday morning.

3) Wintry mix likely Tuesday followed by periods of rain with temperatures trending above average for early March.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Mild end to February/meteorological winter 2025-2026

Another mild day is in store to close out the month, with high temperatures this afternoon expected to range from the mid 40s across the northern tier to around 60 along the Maryland border. A few rain showers are possible this morning across northern PA ahead of a moisture-starved cold front, though the bulk of the precipitation should remain to our north. Otherwise, expect a mainly dry day.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Light rain and snow Saturday night/Sunday morning.

A wave of low pressure is expected to develop tonight along a stalled frontal boundary to our south and will bring light precipitation to Central PA into Sunday morning. Accumulating snow will largely be confined to areas north of I-80, though snowfall amounts continue to trend downward (generally a coating to 2 inches). Model soundings suggest that areas farther to the south may struggle to see saturation reach into the dendritic growth zone, potentially leading to light rain or freezing drizzle being the predominant weather types. A light glaze of ice appears possible for areas south of I-80 and north of the turnpike.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Wintry mix likely Tuesday followed by periods of rain with temperatures trending above average for early March

March comes in more like a lion vs. lamb, but just a short wintry roar before springlike conditions take over.

Modified arctic high migrating southeast from the Great Lakes now provides a chilly and dry day on Monday. This setup favors CAD/overrunning wintry mix scenario for Tuesday as moisture spreads north/east into retreating cold sector. Despite its magnitude 1040mb, the high appears somewhat transient which suggests a progressive wintry mix to rain ptype transition from SW to NE by later Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Timing will likely shift around, but the main themes from next Wednesday through the first weekend of March will be increasingly mild with periods of rain. A sizable and springlike warming trend appears to have staying power based on the 6-10/8-14 day CPC temp outlooks.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Will mention LLWS at BFD and JST for the next hour or two until the wind shift/cold front moves thru there. The patch of mid clouds going thru right now is making very light rain, but it barely reached the ground at BFD. No need to mention precip or visby reductions anywhere. The rest of the day will be a great day to fly with high skies and wind veering to the west. BFD could (30%) have an MVFR cig this AM, but no IFR cigs in store.

The next surge of moisture arrives in the second half of tonight as a low pressure area forms just to our south, moving eastward. A light northerly wind flow and initially clear/PC skies will allow temps to get into the 20s N or I-80, and perhaps as low as the upper teens at BFD. The increasing moisture could produce IFR cig/visby later Sat night, mainly at JST and BFD (50%) with lesser chances (30-40%) for IFR at MDT/LNS and even lower (20-30%) for UNV/AOO/IPT. LIFR is possible (30%) at BFD when snowing. Light snow accums are expected N of I-80, and the chilly low stratus deck elsewhere may also lead to some de-icing being necessary.

Precip slides east and tapers off thru the morning on Sun. By 18Z, only flurries (NW third) or drizzle (MDT/LNS) will be left, and it will continue to dry out on freshening NW wind.

Outlook...

Mon...VFR likely.

Tue...Restrictions likely in wintry mix changing to rain.

Wed...Restrictions possible in periods of rain.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.