textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No sig changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Today will be the coolest day this week, with patchy frost possible again tonight.

2) Extended stretch of dry and seasonal Fall weather this week, followed by a chance of rain on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Tuesday will be the coolest day this week, with patchy frost possible again Tuesday night.

Light winds, clear skies, and low dewpoints have resulted in effective radiational cooling over west central PA, with temps as low as the upper 20s and low 30s this morning. Temperatures will moderate during the day under abundant sunshine. Undercut the NBM for dewpoints this afternoon given the dry airmass and effective mixing.

High pressure will slide east through the day into tonight, with winds shifting around to the SW across west central PA. This should make frost less likely tonight in the places that were coldest this morning. However, frost will be possible to the east where winds will be calm, closer to the center of the high.

------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Extended stretch of dry and seasonal Fall weather this week, followed by a chance of rain on Sunday.

High confidence in a prolonged stretch of dry and seasonable Fall wx this week with cool nights and refreshing afternoons with low humidity. This will give the area a much needed chance to dry out from the wet summer and early fall so far.

The next chance of rain is on Sunday, as moisture moves up from the Gulf Coast states. However, there is still ample uncertainty regarding how much of that moisture makes it into our region.

AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions will be the largely predominant flight category right through Saturday.

That being said, potential restrictions for a 2-3 hour period (09-12Z) due to patchy valley fog will occur at KBFD, KUNV and KIPT mainly Friday and Saturday morning as high pressure at the sfc and aloft becomes located over PA.

It won't be as breezy today with NW winds of 5-10 kts during the daylight hours and a light and variable breeze early today and again early Wed morning.

Diurnal VFR cumulus/stratocumulus will likely develop on today, primarily near Lake Erie (SCT040 at KBFD), with fewer clouds south and east.

Outlook...

Wed-Sat. VFR conditions expected.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ004-012- 017>019-024-033-037-041-042-045. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ005-006-010- 011.