textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Added in fog for Monday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated heavy downpours still possible across the southeast counties this morning.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Isolated heavy downpours still possible across the southwest counties this morning.

The flood watch for the northern and western areas of the CWA has expired as of of 2 AM.

Very heavy rain fell near the IPT area on Sunday, 5.28 inches at the airport there.

While the heaviest bands of showers and storms have weakened and moved out of the area, very high dewpoints remain across the far southeast still. Thus potential for isolated heavypours remain in the southeast. This area had very little rainfall on Sunday, so no watch at this point, but will keep an eye on it, as the terrain can be a large factor with weak flow and low top warm cores.

Models taper off the potential for rain later today into mid week, but given the large scale pattern, moisture will not be far off and could get back in here rather quickly. Some showers and storms expected again later in the week.

Some potential for localized heavy rain and marginal flooding risk later in the week, see latest ERO products.

Some potential for low clouds and fog late today into early Tuesday morning, as fcst temperatures drop below fcst dewpoints, given clearing skies, light winds, and wet ground.

AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Just a few showers left on radar this morning right along the approaching cold front. Winds are calm or southerly ahead of the front and will quickly turn to northwesterly behind it this morning into early afternoon. Conditions will gradually improve today with MVFR conditions by mid morning and VFR by early afternoon. Clouds should lift and scatter out thanks to high pressure building in behind the cold front. Northwest winds could occasionally gust to 20kts this afternoon as well, especially across the northern tier.

With plenty of recent moisture and clearing skies, valley fog is likely later tonight into Tuesday morning. Restrictions are most likely at KBFD, KIPT, and KUNV.

Outlook... Tue...AM valley fog possible, otherwise mainly VFR Wed- Fri...Daily chances for showers and isolated t-storms. Low VFR to MVFR conditions prevailing most of the time.

CLIMATE

With 5.28 inches of rain on Sunday August 2nd, Williamsport not only set the record daily rainfall for August, but now ranks 5th all time since records began in 1985. What's especially remarkable is that yesterday's rain had no influence from a tropical system. Here are the top 8 daily rainfall amounts at Williamsport along with their associated tropical storms:

AMOUNT DATE TROPICAL SYSTEM 1 8.66" June 22, 1972 Agnes 2 6.76" Sept 7, 2011 Lee 3 6.29" Sept 7, 1999 Dennis 4 5.58" Sept 17, 2004 Ivan --> 5 5.28" Aug 2, 2026 N/A <--------- 6 5.22" Aug 24, 1933 Chesapeake - Potomac 7 4.38" Oct 14, 1955 Connie 8 4.32" Aug 29, 1988 Tropical Depression

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.