textproduct: State College

SYNOPSIS

* Blustery conditions areawide and snow flurries in the northern tier this evening will give way to tranquil conditions later tonight * Light rain/snow possible Tuesday into Tuesday night followed by a slightly milder trend through late week

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/

Isolated snow flurries will continue to taper off this evening, as the inversion height lowers. With high pressure building in, winds will continue to decrease, becoming less than 5 kts on average by daybreak. Upper level cirrus will begin to increase prior to sunrise ahead of the next weather system moving across the Midwest.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/

A fast moving mid and upper level trough will move from the Midwest through the Mid Atlantic Tuesday into early Wednesday. The surface low will be weakening quite a bit as the system moves east. Nonetheless, some light precip is expected in a warm advection regime ahead of the surface low. Most of the guidance show the heaviest QPF mainly south of the PA border. Timing is such that most of the precipitation should be in the form of rain. When the surface is cold enough for freezing rain, the lower portion of the atmosphere looks too dry for much precip, and then when the low levels do moisten up the ground will have warmed. Any freezing rain early Tue would be confined to the coldest spots in the Laurels, but chances are too low to warrant an advisory. Rainfall amounts are progged to range from 0.25-0.50 inch across the southern tier, to just a few hundredths of an inch of rain north of Interstate 80.

High pressure becomes the dominant feature again for Wed. Most if not all of Wed and Thu look dry at this point.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

An active northern stream jet stream will push the next frontal system toward the area on Friday. Friday should be on the mild side, with highs in the 50s to near 60. Rain is likely with the passage of a cold front later Friday or early Saturday. While the front could clear things out for the later part of the weekend, there is a risk of the front slowing down and stalling. If enough cold air was to get advected southward at low levels, then one could see mixed precip late Sat/Sun, but for now keeping PoPs less than 40 pct. PoPs remain on the low side on Monday as high pressure dominates.

AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Winds are still a bit gusty tonight with occasional gusts to 20kts, but lighter winds will prevail overnight as high pressure briefly builds in. VFR ceilings will persist overnight at all airfields and the overcast deck of clouds across the northeast half of PA will gradually fade overnight.

A quick-moving system will bring a mix of precipitation to southern airfields Tuesday afternoon and evening. Ceilings will gradually lower from west to east after 18Z tomorrow with IFR or LIFR the eventual destination everywhere. JST and AOO will be the first to experience precipitation, which could start as snow and then transition to plain rain. Current guidance indicates that other airfields may not experience any precipitation prior to 00z.

Rain will overspread the region (mainly south of KBFD) overnight and change over to or mix with snow at KUNV and KIPT.

Outlook...

Wed...AM showers southeast, restrictions likely from southeast flow/low clouds.

Thu...Dry, restrictions likely in low clouds.

Fri-Sat...Widespread rain expected.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.