textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No significant changes

KEY MESSAGES

1) Short break in the muggy precip pattern today.

2) Warmer/more humid with heavy downpours Wed-Sat.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Short break in the muggy precip pattern today.

Sat RGB composite shows the expected fog in the valleys. This should dissipate by 8 or 9 AM in most places but could take until 10 AM in the deeper places. After that, only some higher clouds moving north out of the SE and isold cu, mainly over the NW. Temps not too different from Mon, just a shade warmer in the Allegheny Plateau and Laurel Highlands. RH dips into the 40s and lower 50s for everyone this aftn.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Warmer/more humid with heavy downpours Wed-Sat.

Upper low over GA will open up and get absorbed by the longer- wave trough moving across the nrn Plains and upper Great Lakes. The resulting SSE flow of high PWAT air and lack of well-defined fronts and will put us back into a muggy and unsettled pattern. The lack of organization will mean more pulse/airmass type thunderstorms. The high moisture content will make heavy downpours likely. But, targeting where they will be on any specific day is going to be too difficult at this range. River gauges already show a return to base flows in most places that received the very heavy rainfall and flooding the other day. Thankfully, the coverage shouldn't be too dense Wed and Thurs. The expected isolated/sct coverage should give the ground a little more time to dry out. But, with each day, the coverage should become more complete. Each successive day should also yield a slightly higher worry for flooding. At this point, the WPC outlooks remain in the next-to-lowest (marginal) category, just above no worries, for W,R,F & Sat which is almost certainly a nod to the scattered nature of the expected airmass/pulse storms.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Some fog at times the last few hours, but with the sun up now, expect the fog to be gone soon.

Expect winds today to be not real strong.

Very dry air aloft at sunset Monday evening, will result in mainly dry conditions today and at least the first part of Wed. Higher dewpoint air likely to push into the southern part of PA after 06Z Wed, so added more detail in the 12Z TAF package.

Outlook...

Wed...Restrictions possible with SHRA/TSRA, especially in the south. Thu...AM fog possible. Afternoon SHRA/TSRA. Fri-Sat... Daily chances for showers and isolated t-storms. Low VFR to MVFR conditions prevailing most of the time.

CLIMATE

With 5.28 inches of rain on Sunday August 2nd, Williamsport not only set the record daily rainfall for August, but also the 5th all time daily rainfall record since records began in 1895. What's especially remarkable is that rain had no influence from a tropical system.

Here are the top 8 daily rainfall amounts at Williamsport along with their associated tropical systems:

AMOUNT DATE TROPICAL SYSTEM 1 8.66" June 22, 1972 Agnes 2 6.76" Sept 7, 2011 Lee 3 6.29" Sept 7, 1999 Dennis 4 5.58" Sept 17, 2004 Ivan --> 5 5.28" Aug 2, 2026 N/A <--------- 6 5.22" Aug 24, 1933 Chesapeake - Potomac 7 4.38" Oct 14, 1955 Connie 8 4.32" Aug 29, 1988 Tropical Depression

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.