textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No more wind advisory threat. * Bumped PoPs up over the western half of the CWA today. * Lowered dewpoints (again) today.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Nor'easter filling as it sits along the NJ coast.

2) Tranquil conditions expected for the first half of next week with a slight warming trend emerging across the region.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Nor'easter filling as it sits along the NJ coast.

The nor-easter center is just off NJ and will circulate back to the shoreline before sliding to the east and north later tonight and Monday. It is already starting to fill and will do so very slowly today and as it moves away. The wind and gusts will start to decrease a bit through the daylight hours, and will do so even more tonight. The loosening pressure gradient will mean that the threat for nearing wind advisory criteria over any of our counties is all but over. We did knock a couple degs off the dewpoints for today as the NBM has been consistently too high over the past 2-3 days. Despite this, the bands of rain should go farther to the west than Sat - so we bumped the PoPs to categorical for most of the CWA east of route 219. The rain may not quite reach the ground in the western layer of zones, but some hit the ground locally despite the lower-than-forecast dewpoints on Sat. Cool air is locked in, and maxes will be only 55-65F - coolest NE.

QPF is looking heaviest just about where it was on Saturday - the Lower Susq. Someone might pick up another inch, but most likely not. Even so, the FFG is high enough to not have flooding even be a thought.

Conditions will improve tonight and Monday morning. By noon Monday, there should only be isolated --SHRA over the NE and the wind will not be notable. Temps rise slightly from Sun, but will still be cooler than normal.

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KEY MESSAGE 2: Tranquil conditions expected for the first half of next week with a slight warming trend emerging across the region.

Dry conditions will continue into Thursday as the front anticipated to be arriving late Wed/night will be delayed for a day or so. It will pick up some moisture from the remnants of Polo. But, that precip probably stays to our W until Thursday. All model guidance trends towards a warming trend in this timeframe, with above-average temperatures prevailing area wide for the balance of the week. Someone may hit 80F before Friday. Details on timing and intensity of rainfall are not easy to pin down at this range and with the upcoming pattern. So, we'll just make a gradual increase in PoPs Fri-Sat-Sun.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Rainfall will gradually expand from east to west through the morning, bringing a higher potential for lower ceilings and visibility across much of the region. Expect ceilings to fall to MVFR not long after rain begins to fall. Any showers will be quite efficient and therefore could result in visibilities dropping below 3 statute miles (categorical IFR). The location of the Nor'easter will also lead to wind gusts exceeding 20-25kts across all of central Pennsylvania on Sunday; slightly stronger gusts are likely at KMDT and KLNS (up to 30kts possible).

There remains some uncertainty with just how low ceilings get during the day today, but the combination of reduced visibility when showers are most numerous and lowering ceilings after showers weaken/dissipate give confidence in a lengthy period of restrictions Sunday afternoon through the overnight hours. Ceilings continue to lower to IFR/LIFR across much of the region this evening and will remain there into Monday morning. Outlook...

Mon...MVFR restrictions persist in with lingering scattered showers.

Tue...Gradual improvement, MVFR lingers at higher elevations (BFD, JST) in a typical northwest flow pattern.

Wed...Sunshine returns, mostly VFR.

Thu...Chance of showers late PM, some restrictions possible.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.