textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* No significant changes

KEY MESSAGES

1) Our lengthy run of dry and mild weather continues until the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Our lengthy run of dry and mild weather continues until the second half of the week.

Mid and high clouds already cover most of PA, but there are some thinner patches. Clouds aren't any lower than 9kft. This should remain the case for today with almost no low clouds/cu. However, more moisture is brought into the area from the southwest on Monday. A sprinkle isn't out of the question over the N Monday night - much like the very small and brief shower they had two nights ago. We'll keep the forecast at 0 PoP since there is no risk of 0.01" accumulating. That isn't great news for northern PA where BFD only accumulated 0.85" through all of Oct, and is currently on a run of 14 straight days without measurable (0.01") rain.

Upper level ridging builds back into the region for the first half of the week, helping to prolong our dry stretch and keeping high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal for much of week. Highs in the lower 70s are in store for all but the higher elevations on Wed.

Chances for widespread rainfall return for the second half of the week. Wed night is the earliest anyone will see precip as a complex system develops over the middle of the country. There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the evolution of the upper air pattern and phasing of energy aloft that will decide the development and progression of this system. The more weighted/favored (per WPC) ECMWF solution yields only a brief 12-18hr window of precip as the cold front moves through (longer in the eastern half of the CWA than over the west) Wed night and Thurs. Cold air under a sharp trough could make the first part of the weekend a little chilly and damp with instability showers.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions are virtually certain through 00Z Monday with just a BKN-OVC cirrus layer between FL150-FL250 through the forecast timeframe. No areas of fog were observed early this morning with only a drop to MVFR along the Susquehanna river airfields. Expect the same scenario overnight so left out any mention of lower cig- vis. Winds will remain less than 8kts through the period.

Outlook...

Mon-Tue...patchy AM valley fog; otherwise, VFR prevails.

Wed-Thu...Rain showers, especially in the PM hours on Wednesday and continuing into Thursday. Sub-VFR conditions become more likely in showers.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.