textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Dense fog has dissipated, but low clouds remain stubborn across parts of central PA.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Feeling more like early Spring than late Winter this week

2) Periods of rain Wednesday, Thursday night and Friday

3) Mixed/wintry precipitation potential for late week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Feeling more like early Spring than late Winter this week Following one of the coldest first 2 weeks of February on record, mild weather for this time of year will be in place this week with daily max/min temperature anomalies running 10-20 degrees above the historical average. Conditions will feel more like early Spring than late Winter. Depending on the time of arrival and coverage of precipitation later this week, daytime temps may not get as quite as warm as currently forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Periods of rain Wednesday, Thursday night and Friday

Following one of the driest first 2 weeks of February on record, much needed periods of rainfall are likely on Wednesday and again Thursday night into Friday. Total QPF during the mid to late week period ranges between 0.50 to 1.00 inches with the highest amounts shaded toward the NW portion of the fcst area. While we do not expect the rainfall to cause flooding, the warmer temperatures and increased flows on rivers and streams should increase the risk of ice jams at least on the margin.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Mixed/wintry precipitation potential for late week

An overrunning/cold air damming pattern setup may be in place for late in the week. This suggests an increased risk for mixed and wintry precipitation which is being signaled by the latest NBM. Details are not yet clear, but the Friday morning commute may be impacted.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Clouds have been very slow to break up this afternoon and MVFR or IFR ceilings are still being reported over most of the region as of 18Z. Slow improvement is expected through the rest of the afternoon, with cloud bases eventually rising to borderline MVFR/VFR for all TAF sites. These improved flight conditions will be brief as most guidance shows low clouds and fog redeveloping overnight. This should bring IFR or LIFR ceilings to most, if not all, of Central PA once again. The extent of visibility restrictions is highly uncertain, but BFD, JST, and LNS currently have the highest chance of seeing IFR visibility tonight. That being said, there is a 40-50 percent chance of all other TAF sites seeing visibility drop to IFR as well.

A low pressure system passing to our north tonight will bring a few rain showers to northern PA. While we expect most airfields to remain dry, there is around a 15 percent chance of a brief shower at BFD and IPT.

Outlook...

Wed...IFR -RA/cigs N, MVFR -RA/cigs elsewhere.

Thu...Dry early, then rain later in the day with restrictions possible.

Fri...Rain with restrictions likely. Some snow may mix in over northern PA.

Sat...Lingering rain and snow showers.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.