textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Prime stretch of Fall weather is in the late innings with rain and breezy conditions forecast Sunday from Isaias

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Prime stretch of Fall weather is in the late innings with rain and breezy conditions forecast Sunday from Isaias

The ongoing string of dry and comfortable Fall days and crisp, cool Autumn nights will come to an end on Sunday as rain and breezy conditions arrive from Isaias.

We can't rule out some patchy frost across the usually colder valley spots in the NW Alleghenies and Laurel Highlands tonight.

Rainfall timing continues to focus during the day on Sunday before tapering off Sunday night into early Monday/Columbus Day. Total rainfall amounts are generally forecast in the 0.50-1.50 inch range over a 24-36hr duration with a low risk of potential flooding impacts. Wind gusts 35-40 mph are possible over the ridgetops in the Laurel Highlands on Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions are expected overnight under mainly clear skies with light winds. Patchy valley fog may form, but the very dry air mass should limit the overall extent of fog. Impacts at TAF sites appear very unlikely, with the HREF showing a less than 10 percent chance of visibility dropping below 6SM across all of Central PA. VFR conditions continue through the day on Friday as high pressure remains in control. Winds will be out of the west-northwest at 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...

Sat...VFR conditions expected.

Sun-Mon...Restrictions likely in lower ceilings and rain.

Tue...VFR favored, though a FROPA may bring restrictions in -SHRA. AM fog possible.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.