textproduct: State College

WHAT HAS CHANGED

* Added mention of --SN to tonight over the far western zones * Max temps were bumped up 3-5F Fri & Sat

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures start a steady climb today with a couple chances for light precipitation through Friday.

2) Cold frontal passage Sunday should make widespread rain showers perhaps ending as a brief period of snow across the north.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Temperatures start a steady climb today with a couple chances for light precipitation through Friday.

High pressure will reside overhead today and start to slide to the east tonight. A warm front is expected to generate meager lift, but the western mountains and that lift may squeeze out a little light snow there tonight. Most everyone else should just be cloudy. Any accumulations will be less than an inch, and that would be most possible (40%) over Warren/McKean/Elk counties. The 8H temps rise about 6C through the day, and help us get about 8F warmer than Tuesday.

A compact Clipper will drop down from WI/MI, and generate a meager attempt at generating precip Thursday aftn and evening. Most models have temps warm enough at that time to keep it rain, but the NE may have a mix/elevation snow. Still, the QPF is <0.10, so any eventual accums on the grassy areas will be <1". The PoPs will be highest (30s) in the N and SW. We may want to eventually bump these PoPs up, but model consensus in precip occurrence is low at this time. Add 8-10F onto maxes from Wed.

The atmosphere tries one more time to make light precip before the start of the day Saturday (starting late Fri). This one looks like the best chance (60-70 PoPs) of these three attempts at precip. Despite dropping down from farther north than the previous attempt, the sfc low deepens more, and the tap of moisture from the S will be better, too. Generally <0.25" QPF is seen as it crosses PA late Friday and Friday night. Again, temps will be plenty warm enough for all rain. Since it will be more energetic than Thursday's shot, there will be a slight/chc for TS across the SW. But, no worries for severe at this time. Maxes should be another 6-10F warmer than the day before.

---------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Cold frontal passage Sunday should make widespread rain showers perhaps ending as a brief period of snow across the north.

Most of Sat will be dry outside of a lingering morning SHRA in the east. Temps warm a little more with 50-55F numbers across the northern tier and 55-65F elsewhere. A couple of places in the southern tier could take a run at 70F on Sunday before a cold front brings clouds and numerous SHRA. Timing and orientation of the front is a little unclear at this time, but most models agree on the cold air getting into PA before the end of the night/Monday morning. Mon morning temps should be in the 20s N. That drastic change will take place while precip may be falling Sunday night. So, there should be some mix/snow at the end of the precip. It should be generally minor, with probs of 3"+ of snow 20pct in the far N and nil elsewhere.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Largely unrestricted/VFR conditions are anticipated through Wednesday. Tonight will see mostly clear skies across all of the central Pennsylvania outside of the far northwest where lake effect winds keep clouds overhead at BFD. These ceilings could be MVFR to IFR at times, but largely expect VFR to prevail. Gusty surface winds out of the W-NW into early evening, will diminish tonight, then be fairly light on Wednesday (5 kt or less).

Clear skies expected for most of today with high pressure taking control of the Mid-Atlantic region. The next chance for restrictions and precipitation will come on Thursday as a surface trough drifts across the region bringing light rain and a few snow showers to PA.

Outlook...

Thu-Sun...VFR to MVFR with ocnl light rain or snow.

CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.