textproduct: Corpus Christi
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 217 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024
Key Messages:
- Minor coastal flooding to continue through early this week.
- High Risk of rip currents in place through Monday night.
- Small Craft Advisory in effect through Tuesday morning.
Moderate to strong winds will continue tonight. While we have gusted to up to 42 mph, have elected to hold off on a Wind Advisory for today as any observations of 40 mph or greater have been isolated and have not been persistent. It looks like Monday may have some slightly stronger winds ahead of an approaching cold front, so we may need to consider a Wind Advisory for portions of the area for Monday afternoon.
Moisture will pool ahead of the cold front so expect a moderate to high (50-80%) chance of showers and thunderstorms as early as Monday night ahead of and along the front. The front should reach the coast by early Tuesday morning, shifting winds from strong southeast winds to weak to moderate northerly flow behind the front Monday night.
Temperatures will remain warm tonight and Monday, with lows in the mid 70s and highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s. As the front crosses the area Monday night, we will see slightly cooler low temperatures, dipping into the mid 60s to low 70s.
With the strong winds, long period swell, and high surf, expect minor coastal flooding to continue through. A Coastal Flood Advisory will remain in place for the Bays as well as the Gulf water. These same conditions will continue a High Risk of Rip Currents through Tuesday morning. Beachgoers are urged to use caution along our beaches.
LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 217 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024
Key Message:
- Strengthening winds and rising seas are expected to cause minor coastal flooding and an increased risk of rip currents early next week
The long term period starts out with a stout mid-level trough with an axis stretching over Minnesota down through the Southern Plains. A mid-level high just off the coast of the Carolinas and a developing low north of Montana. As the week progresses, the aforementioned trough lifts northeast as it becomes embedded in the overall flow while the other low drops southward over the Desert southwest before lifting northeast over the Rockies towards the end of the workweek. Both of these systems are expected to send a couple of cold fronts south towards the TX coast early in the workweek and again this weekend.
The first front will arrive at the end of the short term period reaching the coast by around 12-15Z Tuesday with gusty northerly winds behind it. Low to moderate (20-50%) rain chances with the better chances along the coast tapering off from west to east Tuesday evening. Low rain (<30%) chances return Thursday into the weekend as a couple of disturbances move across the region combined with PWAT's around 1.30-1.65". The second front is uncertain that it will move across South Texas as it approaches the region then retreats this weekend. This will depend on the strength and location of the associated trough from the west. How far south the trough goes will be dependent on the location and strength of a high pressure system to our south.
Temperatures drop briefly Tuesday and Tuesday night with highs in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees out west and lows in the mid 50s to near 70 degrees. Onshore flow quickly returns for the remainder of the week with warmer temperatures ranging in the 80s each afternoon and in the 60s to around 70 degrees during the overnight hours.
Northeasterly winds through Wednesday combined with 7-8 second period swells is likely to result in minor coastal flooding through the Middle of the week with tidal levels expected to reach around 2.0 ft MSL.
The National Hurricane is monitoring 2 areas of potential development across the Caribbean. The first system, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen in the western Caribbean, has a High 90 percent chance of formation in the next 48 hours as it moves generally northward toward Jamaica and Cuba. The second system moving westward toward the Bahamas and Cuba, has a low 20 percent chance of formation over the next seven days. We will continue to watch these 2 areas over the coming days but this is a good reminder that hurricane season runs through the end of the month.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) Issued at 540 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024
Strong south to southeast winds with gusts to around 25 knots are expected at all terminals tonight. MVFR ceilings will develop over the Coastal Plains stretching west to the Rio Grande beginning around 05Z. CRP may have a harder time getting to MVFR with the higher winds and mixing overnight. Otherwise, around 14z, will expect that the MVFR CIGs will lift again.
MARINE
Issued at 217 PM CST Sun Nov 3 2024
Strong to very strong flow will continue through Monday with gusts to near Gale Force. Winds will diminish to moderate to strong ahead of an approaching cold front Monday night into Tuesday morning. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Monday night. A low (15-25%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday will increase to a moderate to high (50-75%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Monday night. Moderate to strong southerly flow early Tuesday will decrease to weak to moderate as winds shift north to northeast as a front moves offshore Tuesday morning. Then winds shift back onshore Wednesday before becoming moderate Thursday with a more easterly direction. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to linger into Tuesday with Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions returning on Friday. Shower Chances Tuesday are high (70-85%) then drop to low to moderate (20- 40%) late Tuesday and then low (~20%) for the remainder of the week and the weekend.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Corpus Christi 76 88 69 78 / 10 10 70 40 Victoria 75 89 65 78 / 20 30 90 40 Laredo 74 95 67 81 / 0 0 50 0 Alice 75 93 68 78 / 10 10 80 30 Rockport 78 87 70 81 / 10 20 80 40 Cotulla 74 95 66 81 / 10 10 50 0 Kingsville 76 91 69 78 / 10 10 70 40 Navy Corpus 78 85 72 78 / 10 30 70 50
CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for TXZ245-342>347- 442-443-447.
High Rip Current Risk through late Monday night for TXZ345-442- 443-447.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275.
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