textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 630 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

- Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of strong to severe storm tonight into Wednesday morning

- Medium to high shower and thunderstorm chances tonight through next Monday. Additional total rainfall between 3.0-5.0".

- Dangerous swimming conditions with a moderate to high risk of rip currents along the Middle Texas Coast through this week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

As of writing this, we're dealing with a cluster of strong storms in a bowing segment across the Brush Country into the Coastal Plains. Damaging winds is the primary threat, followed by small hail mixing in. This will likely reach the coast at about 09Z (4AM). We'll have to keep a close eye on the RIJ on velocity data. Nevertheless, this rain will prime the soils for additional heavy rain later this week and pose a higher threat for flash flooding but more efficient runoff.

A cold front will move into North Texas through the day today, likely developing a line of strong showers and thunderstorms along it that is forecast to propagate down into South Texas late tonight. This line will pose another marginal risk of severe storms, with damaging winds and large hail the primary threat.

Following tonight's storms, there will be a lull in rain activity into the day Wednesday but additional rounds of medium to high rain chances will continue through this upcoming weekend and even into early next week due to a series of mid-level disturbances interacting with near climatological max moisture. Not including this morning's rainfall, total rainfall tonight through next Monday, ranges from 3.00" along the coast to around 5.00" along our northern counties from La Salle to Victoria. High end (10%) rainfall totals range from 4.50-6.00". There will be a marginal to slight risk of flash flooding through much of the week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

The overnight system continues to move to the east this morning, leaving behind mostly clear skies for KCOT and clearing skies for KALI/KCRP. This will be short lived as SE'ly flow returns bringing back a VFR cloud deck. Tonight, the area see's another chance for a line of storms moving through from west to east from 06Z-12Z. Some terminals have PROB30/TEMPO groups to account for the degradation of flight categories and for gusty and erratic winds. Outside of precipitation, MVFR CIGs return.

MARINE

Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Strong thunderstorms with wind gusts over 35 knots will pass through the waters early this morning. A moderate to occasionally fresh breeze (BF 4-5) is expected to continue through this afternoon, allowing for an extension of the Small Craft Advisory. Winds will relax to a gentle to moderate breeze (BF 3-4) Wednesday and continue through the end of the work week. A line of showers and thunderstorms will pass through all the waters early this morning, then a lull in rain activity during the day. Medium chances (50-60%) for shower and thunderstorms are expected tonight through Friday night before increasing to higher chances (60- 80%) Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 91 79 90 77 / 30 50 30 20 Victoria 91 75 89 73 / 30 60 40 20 Laredo 100 77 95 73 / 10 50 50 80 Alice 95 77 92 74 / 20 60 40 30 Rockport 90 79 89 78 / 30 50 20 10 Cotulla 99 75 93 72 / 10 60 50 90 Kingsville 92 78 91 76 / 20 50 30 20 Navy Corpus 87 80 87 79 / 20 50 20 20

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ245- 343>347-442-443-447.

High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for TXZ345-442- 443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ231-232- 236-237-250-255-270-275.