textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 114 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

- Shower/Storm chances through Saturday leading to quick, heavy downpours

- Temperatures trend warmer and Moderate HeatRisk becomes more widespread through the upcoming week

- High Rip Current Risk Saturday/monitoring Coastal Flooding potential

DISCUSSION

Issued at 114 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

The cutoff low that has moved near the Big Bend region is continuing to fill as transitions more into a shortwave trough as it moves into the Great Plains. This is leading to a streak of vorticity wrapping into the mid-level low from the western Gulf and into north-central Texas. Additionally, a 300 hPa jet-streak is aiding in the upper- level dynamics to keeping a moist-profile across most of Texas (as seen from the tropical-like 00Z June 6th sounding from KCRP). CAMs have picked on this focused area of surface convergence by keeping showers and thunderstorms forming off the Gulf waters and moving north into the Matagorda Bay area (and even greater chances of storms between Victoria/Houston metro. General timeframe for these storms will be between 3AM-noon today. Across the remainder of South Texas, rain chances diminish greatly and is looking to remain partly cloudy. WPC's risk of flash flooding is greatest closer to the shortwave axis/near the Red River Valley with and area of marginal risk (level 1 of 4) across eastern Texas.

High pressure then settles into the region, dramatically reducing chances for precipitation, but they remain non-zero. An isolated shower/thunderstorm from the daily breeze cannot be ruled out, though it won't be quite the gullywasher as in previous weeks. That said, what will be of greater concern in this drier week ahead will be the HeatRisk. With 105-110F heat indices becoming more widespread in the upcoming week so will the Moderate HeatRisk (level 2 of 4) with splotches of Major HeatRisk (level 3 of 4) in the latter-half of the week.

With respect to the beach hazards, we will continue to see a high rip current risk through at least Sunday night as the persistent southeasterly wind and increased long period swell increase today. There is still low-confidence on minor coastal flooding today with the high tide cycle. If the water level reach the vicinity of the dunes, it will likely be short in duration. This will continue to be monitored for any advisory issuances.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 114 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

VFR to MVFR CIGs can be expected through the night generally due to isolated showers and thunderstorms moving through the region from the south. CIGs will improve during the morning returning to predominately VFR. VCT will have the best chances for showers and thunderstorms through the day Saturday. To account for this PROB30s were maintained this cycle though conditions should clear out by the afternoon hours.

MARINE

Issued at 114 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A gentle southeasterly breeze today will increase to more moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) starting tonight. Seas near 3 ft today will increase to 4-5 ft tonight and persist into Monday night. Rain chances (20-40% chance) will be greatest north of Corpus Christi Bay and along the nearshore waters today and then across the Coastal Bend Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 114 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Thanks to the rainfalls in May, the green-up continues across South Texas. This and in combination with minimum relative humidity values remaining above 40% will keep the fire risk low. Rain chances today will be greatest across the Victoria Crossroads (30-50% chance). High pressure then settles in limiting the rain chances for the upcoming week, with just short-lived, isolated showers in the afternoons associated with the sea breeze.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 88 79 88 79 / 20 10 20 10 Victoria 86 75 88 76 / 50 20 30 10 Laredo 94 77 95 77 / 0 10 0 0 Alice 89 76 90 77 / 20 0 10 10 Rockport 89 81 90 81 / 30 20 20 20 Cotulla 93 76 94 76 / 0 10 0 0 Kingsville 88 77 88 78 / 20 10 10 10 Navy Corpus 87 81 88 82 / 20 20 20 20

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ345-442-443- 447.

GM...None.