textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 539 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

- Mainly dry through Tuesday. Rain chances return mid to late week.

- Gradually warming temperatures each day, with above normal temperatures for the latter half of the week.

- Medium chance of tropical development in the Bay of Campeche this week, coastal flooding and rip currents the primary concern for South Texas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Convection is waning tonight over the Middle Texas waters, but expect additional development over the next couple of days in that area as deep moisture sits over the western Gulf. Any rain chance for South Texas itself are minimal and mainly confined to the immediate coast.

As we head toward the middle of the week things get a bit complicated again in terms of rain chances. Current trends suggest moisture pushes back inland by Wednesday into Thursday and would give us at least some morning streamer activity along the coast and a return of sea breeze convection. However, will have to watch the mid-level disturbance in the Bay of Campeche as a surface low could develop on that as conditions improve mid to late week. If this does develop, it would rob a lot of the moisture from our area, so timing is going to be key to see if we get convection in here Wednesday before any development occurs. While there is plenty of discrepancy in guidance as to what would happen with a system, the general consensus is for a northerly track, staying east of the Texas coast. This would also wrap drier air around into the western Gulf, thus decreasing rain chances as previously mentioned. If no development occurs though, would expect higher rain chances late in the week.

Decreasing deep moisture and increasing mid-level temperatures will lead to a gradual increase in temperatures through the first part of the work week. We start out today with highs mainly in the 80s, and expect highs in the lower to mid 90s for most of the area by the middle and latter part of the week. Low temperatures will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

Northeast flow led to very high tide levels along the coast today with water reaching the dunes at many spots along the coast. With that flow persisting through the middle of the week, and being in a seasonal high tide time, coastal flooding will continue to be a concern on Gulf facing beaches daily.

Should a tropical system develop, we could see increasing long period swells push into the coast to further increase tide levels, and bring an increased risk of rip currents.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 539 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

A MVFR/IFR cloud deck lingers across South Texas this morning, but returning to VFR this afternoon as drier air aloft starts filtering in. As such, sky coverage is also forecast to decrease, especially after 00Z across the northern terminals. Winds will be N/NE'ly at 10-15 kts today gusting as high as 25 kts, but weakening after 00Z.

MARINE

Issued at 129 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Fresh to strong (BF 5-6) northeasterly flow is expected to continue through today. A small craft advisory is in effect through this evening. Northeasterly flow will subside a bit by Tuesday and should be mainly moderate to fresh through late week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue daily with a mid-level disturbance in the Bay of Campeche. There is a medium chance for tropical development by later in the week, which would lead to increasing swells into the area.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 129 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

No significant fire weather concerns are anticipated through the work week with mainly moderate humidity levels and weak winds. Rain chances are low through the middle of the week but could increase by the latter half.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 86 72 89 72 / 10 10 10 0 Victoria 88 69 91 68 / 10 0 0 0 Laredo 87 69 89 69 / 20 10 0 0 Alice 86 69 89 69 / 10 10 0 0 Rockport 85 74 90 74 / 10 10 10 0 Cotulla 90 69 91 68 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 85 70 88 70 / 20 10 10 0 Navy Corpus 85 76 87 77 / 20 20 20 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ345-442-443- 447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ250-255- 270-275.