textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 617 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- NHC continues to indicate a low chance (30%) of tropical development over the next 7 days for a trough of low pressure currently located over northeastern Mexico.

- Rainy conditions will continue through at least the middle of next week as deep tropical moisture coincides with an approaching weak frontal boundary.

- WPC highlights a Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) for excessive rainfall and flash flooding for Monday. A Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) is in place for the rest of today, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

- High Rip Current Risk and minor coastal flooding continue through at least tonight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 154 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Deep tropical moisture will remain in place across our area through the middle of the week, supporting quite a rainy pattern over the next several days. Our 18Z CRP sounding has already indicated PWATs of ~2.50 inches, and forecast guidance shows this moisture plume persisting through at least Wednesday, with PWATs generally ranging from 2.25-2.50 inches and locally approaching 2.60-2.75 inches. This very moist airmass, combined with weak steering flow and efficient warm-rain processes, will create a favorable environment for periods of heavy rainfall and localized flooding concerns.

Multiple forcing mechanisms are expected to interact over the region during this period. A weak frontal boundary sagging southward into Texas will approach and likely stall near portions of the Coastal Plains, while daily sea breeze circulations and a trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico will provide additional lift for widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop each day. The greatest rainfall potential is expected from Monday through Tuesday night. Current rainfall forecasts support widespread totals of 3-5 inches across the region, though isolated higher amounts up to 6-8 inches will likely occur where training convection develops. Based on the environment and HREF probabilities, rainfall rates exceeding 2 inches per hour will be possible within stronger cells, which could quickly overwhelm drainage systems and produce flash flooding, especially in urban, low-lying, and poor drainage areas. WPC continues to highlight much of our CWA within a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall/flash flooding for the rest of today through Wednesday. However, an upgrade to a Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) has become necessary, particularly for Monday, as confidence in heavier coverage has increased. All of this has prompted the issuance of a Flood Watch beginning tonight and continuing through Tuesday evening.

Temperatures will trend slightly cooler through midweek due to increased cloud cover and precipitation. However, any locations that receive limited rainfall could still experience periods of heat indices exceeding 103 to 107 degrees during the afternoon hours. By late week, rain chances are forecast to gradually decrease from west to east as deeper moisture shifts away from the region and weak ridging begins to rebuild. Stronger subsidence should allow temperatures and heat indices to trend upward again heading into next weekend, potentially resulting in elevated heat risk conditions.

As far as coastal hazards go, long-period swells around 6-8 seconds and seas of 4-5 feet combined with astronomically higher tides due to the new moon phase will lead to hazardous marine and beach conditions. This includes a heightened risk for rip currents and minor coastal flooding concerns during times of high tide through at least tonight/early tomorrow.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Expect prevailing MVFR conditions through much of this period. Have noted periods with the best opportunity for showers/storms, but a rogue storm can't be ruled out at any time through this period and beyond the end of the period. Winds remain mainly light except near thunderstorms.

MARINE

Issued at 154 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) onshore flow will persist through much of the period. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 4PM, when Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will take over and continue through early in the week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through midweek next week, with locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and brief gusty winds possible in and around any stronger storms. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely again during the second half of the week as winds are expected to reach fresh to strong (BF 5-6) levels and seas are forecast to increase up to 7-9 feet.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 79 88 77 84 / 60 80 90 90 Victoria 77 87 75 84 / 40 80 90 90 Laredo 77 91 75 86 / 40 70 70 70 Alice 77 88 75 83 / 40 70 90 90 Rockport 81 88 79 87 / 60 70 90 90 Cotulla 77 89 74 86 / 50 80 70 70 Kingsville 77 88 76 83 / 50 80 90 90 Navy Corpus 81 88 80 86 / 70 60 90 90

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for TXZ229>234-239>247- 342>347-442-443-447.

High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for TXZ345-442-443- 447.

GM...None.