textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 529 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

- A strong cold front will arrive late tonight and will bring significantly colder temperatures, strong winds, and a moderate chance of rain to much of the region.

- A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf Waters while a Wind Advisory remains in effect for land beginning early Monday morning and lasting until early Monday evening.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather concerns across all of South Texas on Monday due to the combination of low humidity, breezy winds, and dry fuels. - Widespread low temperatures in the 30s Tuesday night with the possibility for some locations to drop below freezing.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1149 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

The well-advertised cold front is expected to move through South Texas late tonight into the early morning hours on Monday. As the boundary approaches and passes, winds will increase and shift sharply to the north-northeast, ushering in much colder and drier air. Scattered showers are expected along the front, with moderate rain chances (50-70%) overall. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, however, limited upper-level support should keep chances for convection low and rainfall amounts generally light (<0.25").

Behind the front, north-northeasterly winds of 20-30 mph with gusts frequently reaching 40-45 mph are expected across the region. These conditions allow for the continuance of an areawide Wind Advisory, as well as a Gale Warning over the coastal waters. Seas will build rapidly, with wave heights increasing to 8-13 feet and swell periods of 6-9 seconds. While winds and waves will largely be longshore, elevated offshore wave heights and persistent north-northeasterly flow may still result in minor coastal flooding, particularly around times of high tide. The combination of breezy winds and drier air and fuels will also result in elevated to near-critical fire weather concerns on Monday. More on this in the Fire Weather Discussion below.

Temperatures will fall sharply in the wake of the front, with little recovery during the day Monday as CAA offsets any daytime heating. Highs will struggle to rise beyond the 50s. Cloud cover will linger on Monday night, limiting radiational cooling and keeping lows in the 40s. Although, a few northern locations may briefly dip into the upper 30s. The coldest period of the week is still expected Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as surface high pressure settles over the region, allowing for clearer skies, lower winds, and more efficient radiational cooling. Widespread lows in the 30s are anticipated, with a medium to high (50-75%) chance of freezing temperatures inland. Coastal locations are expected to remain slightly warmer with lows closer to the low 40s.

The cooler conditions will persist through midweek before a gradual warming trend begins once again. Onshore flow is expected to return as surface high pressure behind the front shifts east, allowing for temperatures to slowly increase towards seasonal to above normal under generally dry conditions. High temperatures will rise to the 60s and 70s by Wednesday and Thursday, with highs returning to the upper 70s to low 80s by next weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 529 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through the next few hours. A strong cold front will move into the region tonight beginning around 06Z-12Z. Scattered showers will be expected along the front therefore VCSH was kept in the TAF for all sites. MVFR ceilings will develop as the front approaches. Some areas will see a drop in visibilities in addition to drop in ceilings with heavier showers. Conditions will improve gradually as the front clears the coast through the morning. Winds will increase around 20-30 knots with gusts up 40-45 knots possible beginning tonight through tomorrow afternoon/early evening.

MARINE

Issued at 1149 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Expect a gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore flow ahead of our next cold front late Sunday night/early Monday morning. This front will result a 60-75% chance of precipitation and in winds shifting to the north-northeast. Winds will increase to a strong to gale strength (BF 6-8) through Monday night/Tuesday morning. In addition to winds, seas are expected to build up to 8-13 feet, occasionally up to 15 feet, offshore. A Gale Warning remains in effect from 3 AM to 6 PM Monday. Winds will gradually lessen Tuesday, returning to gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore flow by midweek.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1149 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Southeasterly winds of 10-15 mph, minimum RH values above 40%, and Energy Release Components (ERCs) in the 25th-49th percentile will negate fire weather concerns through the remainder of today. A strong cold front will move through late tonight into Monday morning, resulting in medium chances (50-60%) for precipitation along the front. In the wake of the front, minimum RH values will drop below 30% (into the teens across portions of the Brush Country) Monday through Wednesday. Breezy conditions combined with the very low RH and ERCs in the 25th-69th percentile will allow for elevated to near critical fire weather concerns across much of South Texas Monday. Winds and minimum RH may reach Red Flag thresholds and we will need to monitor if a Red Flag Warning is warranted. However, for now, we have issued a Fire Danger Statement to cover the threat. Northerly winds lessen after Monday, but low minimum RH values continue into Wednesday, supporting lingering elevated fire weather concerns through midweek.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 51 53 43 57 / 70 10 0 0 Victoria 48 51 40 57 / 50 10 0 0 Laredo 52 54 45 60 / 60 30 0 0 Alice 51 54 45 58 / 70 20 0 0 Rockport 51 55 45 59 / 60 10 0 0 Cotulla 50 52 45 59 / 40 10 0 0 Kingsville 51 54 44 58 / 60 20 0 0 Navy Corpus 55 56 47 57 / 60 10 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Monday for TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447.

GM...Gale Warning from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ231-232-236-237- 250-255-270-275.