textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 457 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect today 9 AM TO 8 PM for all of South Texas

- A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from Midnight early Saturday morning to 7 AM Sunday across all the waters

- A Freeze Watch has been issued for late Saturday/Sunday morning across inland locations and coastal Refugio

- Wind chill values 25-30 degrees inland and 30-40 degrees along the coast Sunday morning

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1215 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Not much change to the synoptic pattern with a mid-level low diving southeastward across the Midwest and an elongated high over CA. Confidence in the forecast wanes for the second half of next week as significant discrepancy between operational models continues.

The cold front is currently moving southward over the waters with gusty northerly winds up to 30-35 mph and are expected to slowly diminish throughout the day today. With dewpoint temperatures dropping to the 10-15F degree range there will be critical fire weather conditions across all of South Texas and hazardous marine conditions across all waters for elevated winds and seas. Looking ahead to next week, our next front looks to stall near or north of our CWA Tuesday with low rain chances (20-35%) returning to the forecast Tuesday night then increasing to a moderate (50-60%) chance (east) as another front approaches our CWA midweek and moves across the region and offshore sometime Thursday.

Hazards:

Due to the aforementioned conditions, a Red Flag Warning is in effect today 9 AM TO 8 PM for all of South Texas; and a Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect through 7 AM Sunday across all waters. A Freeze Watch has been issued for late Saturday/Sunday morning across inland locations and coastal Refugio.

Temperatures:

Highs today will top out around the low to mid 60s. Tonight, clear skies, generally light winds, and strong radiational cooling, will promote freezing temperatures from the upper 20s (north) to mid 30s elsewhere except for low to mid 40s along the coast. The northern most counties are most likely to see the coldest temperatures with a moderate to high (50-85%) chance of lows falling below 32 degrees for several hours. Elsewhere, freezing probabilities remain low to moderate (30-50%).

Regardless, sub-freezing wind chills across the region have a moderate (40-70%) chance to dip below 30 degrees for an hour or two early Sunday morning.

Afternoon temperatures Sunday (low to mid 60s), will be similar to Saturday's high temperatures. Sunday night lows will hover just above freezing across northern counties with mid 30s to around 50 degrees elsewhere. A bit warmer Monday, with afternoon temperatures in the ~low 70s, slightly cooler Tuesday but temperatures come with less confidence due to uncertainty with the next front. From Wednesday through the end of the week temperatures hover in the low 70s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 457 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Breezy northeast winds will continue beyond 00Z for all terminals across the east, while LRD and COT will generally stay below 12 knots. VFR conditions will persist through the TAF cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1215 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Sunday morning as strong to near gale force (BF 6-7) northeasterly winds this morning are likely to persist today and slowly diminish overnight tonight. Flow continues to diminish Sunday becoming light to gentle (BF 2-3) and variable by Sunday evening. By Monday through the end of next week generally expecting moderate to fresh (4-5) onshore flow becoming variable at times in response to a couple of cold fronts Tuesday and again later in the work week. There's low to medium (30-60%) rain chances through Saturday night across the Gulf waters. Followed by moderate to high rain chances around mid-week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1215 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

A cold front has moved across the region and is now offshore. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all of South Texas Saturday as critical fire weather conditions are expected today in the wake of the front. Relative humidity will dip to as low as 12-25% with winds gusting to 25 mph with Energy Release Component (ERC) values in the 75-90th percentile today across all of South Texas. Critically low relative humidity values persist through Sunday, however, winds will be light enough to negate critical fire weather conditions but ERC values remain elevated. Therefore, although winds will be light Sunday, elevated fire weather conditions will still be possible due to the very low relative humidity and high ERC values.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 62 36 61 41 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 61 29 61 35 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 64 33 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 64 32 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 63 39 60 47 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 62 28 62 34 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 63 34 62 38 / 10 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 61 44 59 51 / 10 10 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this evening for TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447.

Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday morning for TXZ229>234-239>244-246-247-346.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CST Sunday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275.