textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 631 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

- Medium rain chances today areawide, with pockets of heavy rainfall and high rainfall accumulations.

- Heavy rain chances become more focused over the Victoria Crossroads early next week.

- Moderate risk of heat-related impacts through early next week, with peak heat indices generally 104-109 degrees.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Storms will continue to move inland this evening. Some storms have the chance to become strong with model guidance supporting potential for a strong downpour or two (40-60% PoPs out towards La Salle and Webb counties until 00z). PWATs according to the latest GFS run approach 2.2 inches (near 2 standard deviations above average), supporting rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour with isolated strong storms capable of 2-3 inches per hour. There is also some vorticity in the lower-mid levels (700mb) of the atmosphere, this will act as a lifting mechanism to keep these storms going. Although there is enough CAPE to help these storms produce a moderate to heavy downpour, the CAPE is skinny. In addition, the lack of wind shear could hinder intensity of these storms. Due to the lacking factors, severe weather is not expected.

The 500 hPa dome of high pressure will remain over the Great Plains through mid-week, allowing a shortwave disturbance that detaches from the jet stream to retrograde into Southern Plains. For this reason, chances for precipitation will increase across Texas, but generally be greatest for those along and north of the I-10 corridor. That said, we continue with PWAT generally between 1.8-2.0 inches through Tuesday, allowing for more efficient precipitation. Even so, our soils have dried enough to absorb what falls each afternoon, though in the presence of training storms will be the greatest threat for isolated flooding. By the latter- half of the week, our PWATs decline to 1.4-1.6 inches as mid and surface level moisture advects out of the area. Given this, rain chances decrease as we the upcoming weekend.

High temperatures this week will generally remain close to average with the heat risk maxing out in the Moderate (level 2 of 4) category. Remember to practice heat safety and remain hydrated.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

The thunderstorm threat this evening should generally be confined to the vicinity of KLRD. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail outside of periodic MVFR ceilings Sunday morning. The thunderstorm threat will be reduced Sunday relative today with the highest chances (around 40%) at KVCT with roughly a 20% chance at the remainder of the terminals. A similar diurnal wind pattern to previous days will prevail with SE winds relaxing overnight and then increasing again to 10 to 15kts by mid-late morning Sunday.

MARINE

Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Onshore winds at a gentle to moderate strength (BF 3-4) with 2-3 ft seas can be expected through mid-week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances decrease after Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 79 91 78 91 / 10 20 20 30 Victoria 77 91 76 91 / 20 50 40 70 Laredo 77 97 77 97 / 50 10 20 20 Alice 76 93 76 93 / 0 20 10 30 Rockport 81 91 81 90 / 20 30 30 40 Cotulla 76 95 76 95 / 40 10 20 20 Kingsville 77 91 77 91 / 0 20 10 30 Navy Corpus 82 89 82 89 / 10 20 20 40

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.