textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 645 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

- Flood Watch in effect from midnight tonight through Monday evening.

- Multiple rounds of storms are expected through the upcoming weekend. At least a marginal to slight risk of flash flooding each day, with a potentially increasing risk of river flooding later in the period as rainfall totals add up.

- Hazardous beach conditions persist for one more day, with a moderate risk of rip currents expected along the Middle Texas Coast and a chance for minor coastal flooding with today's high tide cycle.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

If you can believe it or not, another shortwave will traverse across the area bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms. Unlike the past couple nights, confidence on locations affected tonight is a little lower, especially for the eastern half. Most models show an area of convection moving through the Brush Country tonight while the FV3 and HRRR show convection out west and a line of scattered thunderstorms moving across the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. Therefore, went with a blend of models for tonight's forecast with higher pops across the Rio Grande. Due to recent rainfall, the 3 hour flash flood guidance has fallen below 2.5" for much of the eastern half of with some spots below 0.50". Locations out west are sitting at 2.5-3" in the 3 hour flash flood guidance. With the expectation of more rain this week and into the weekend, flooding will be possible, especially within the strongest thunderstorms. Therefore, a Flood Watch was issued for tonight and through the weekend. While the potential for flooding is trying to steal the show, severe weather will try to get some of the spot light. SPC has highlighted the Brush Country and Rio Grande under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms for tonight with damaging winds and large hail as the primary hazards.

As we move further into the week and into the weekend, a series of shortwaves are expected to continue moving into the region producing periods of moderate to heavy rain through Monday. With that being said, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted all of South Texas under a Marginal to Slight Risk of Flash Flooding Wednesday, Thursday and Saturday and a Marginal Risk for all of South Texas Friday. Current rainfall accumulations expected from tonight through Monday are 2.5-3.5" across the western half and 3.5-5" across the eastern half, with the highest total expected across the Victoria Crossroads. Isolated higher amounts are possible and if referencing the LREF 90th percentile those values could reach 6-8" in a few locations. Please continue to check the forecast for updated as the next few days evolve.

Persistent moderate to high swell periods will continue promoting dangerous swimming conditions due to a moderate risk of rip currents. These conditions may also lead to another threat for minor coastal flooding early tomorrow morning during high tide. We'll need to keep a close eye on webcams with how much wave runup we get, but confidence is low with the lack of buoy observations.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Another nocturnal cluster of thunderstorms looks likely to progress portions of the area during the first half of the TAF period. Right now highest probabilities (70-80% chance) of direct impacts are at KLRD/KCOT but there are medium chances of direct impacts to the coastal terminals late tonight into early Thursday morning. Prime time window for storms looks to be roughly 05 to 12Z with the earlier timing at the western terminals. Outside of thunderstorms expect periods of MVFR stratus to develop overnight and clear out by Thursday afternoon. Winds will trend light and variable this evening, outside of temporary periods of gustiness in thunderstorm outflows.

MARINE

Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Winds will remain elevated through roughly 3 pm this afternoon with gusts to 30 knots after this morning's convection. A fresh breeze (BF 5) is expected redevelop tonight and continue through the weekend. Medium to high chances (50-70%) for showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday night through Friday night before increasing to higher chances (70-85%) Saturday through Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 75 84 74 89 / 50 80 40 50 Victoria 72 82 71 86 / 30 80 40 60 Laredo 71 87 71 92 / 70 60 40 10 Alice 73 85 72 90 / 50 70 40 40 Rockport 76 86 77 89 / 40 90 40 50 Cotulla 70 85 70 90 / 80 50 50 20 Kingsville 74 85 72 89 / 50 70 40 50 Navy Corpus 76 84 77 87 / 40 80 40 40

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Thursday through Monday evening for TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447.

GM...None.