textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 536 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

- Extreme Cold Watch Saturday Evening through Monday morning.

- Strong Arctic cold front with the potential for freezing rain, especially Saturday night through Sunday morning.

- Freezing temperatures expected along with wind chills in the single digits to the 20s Sunday morning and again Monday morning.

- Small Craft Advisory conditions Saturday through Monday. Near gale conditions possible late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Warmer through the remainder of the work week along with increasing chance of showers Friday through Saturday. A strong Arctic cold front is expected to move through S TX on Saturday bringing freezing temperatures and freezing rain late Saturday night into Sunday morning. There remains some uncertainty as to how far south the freezing rain and temps go, as well as, just how low temps drop. Latest model runs are 2-5 degrees colder than yesterday's runs. The models have been trending down over the past few days. Regardless, confidence is high that most of S TX will drop below 32 degrees by early Sunday morning with 20s from northern Brush Country to the Victoria Crossroads. The islands should remain above freezing.

Wind chills are a big concern due to potential for hypothermia for people and pets exposed to the cold. The wind chills will feel much colder than actual temps, with single digits possible across the Victoria Crossroads to the teens and 20s across the remainder of S TX, including the islands, by Sunday morning, then again Monday morning. During the day Sunday, wind chills will be generally in the 30s. Given the higher confidence of these wind chill values occurring, an Extreme Cold Watch has been issued for all of S TX beginning Saturday evening through Monday morning. Wind chills will be higher during the day Sunday, but still in the 20-30s.

The hazard that is also very concerning is the potential for freezing rain SAturday night through Sunday morning, which could lead to icy road hazards. The Victoria Crossroads has higher chances of getting ice accumulations up to 0.10 of an inch. The remainder of S TX has a lower chance of accumulating ice of 0.01-0.03in. This amount could still pose a hazard with freezing rain on bridges and overpasses.

Based on a couple of model soundings, there could be a mix of sleet as well. Chances for snow or sleet are very low (<10%).

The GFS did show light snow across the Cotulla area late Sunday morning as the main trough axis moves across the region, but it's an outlier. There will likely not be enough moisture in place.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 536 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Current VFR conditions will deteriorate to LIFR/IFR over the Coastal Plains overnight. A weak surface boundary will bisect South Texas, favoring moisture to pool, creating low ceilings and fog, with a moderate to high chance (50-80%) of impacting ALI/CRP/VCT with IFR/LIFR ceilings and vsby. Winds will remain light and variable with no notable rain chances. VFR conditions are expected to return by Thursday afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 227 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Winds diminish to a light to gentle (BF 2-3) breeze with a variable wind direction tonight. Onshore flow begins to increase Friday ahead of a strong Arctic cold front. Winds are expected to shift to a northerly direction and increase to a strong to near gale (BF 6-7) flow on Saturday behind the cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected through the weekend into early next week. A Gale Watch may be necessary. Rain chances diminish from west to east tonight through Thursday, then increase to a moderate to high chance over the weekend as the arctic front pushes through the region. Temperatures will be around freezing along the coast with wind chill values feeling well below freezing during late Saturday night through Monday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 227 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Moisture will continue to increase across South Texas. Afternoon RH values through the remainder of the week are expected to range between 45 to 80% from the west to the coast, with light to moderate winds. ERC values around the 30-40th percentile, resulting in low fire danger. A strong arctic cold front is expected this weekend, with passage likely Saturday morning. RH values expected to remain above 35-50% behind the cold front through the weekend. Elevated fire weather conditions are not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 60 77 63 77 / 10 0 0 10 Victoria 56 76 59 76 / 10 0 0 30 Laredo 50 79 62 81 / 0 0 0 10 Alice 57 79 60 81 / 0 0 0 10 Rockport 58 71 62 74 / 10 0 0 20 Cotulla 49 77 59 76 / 0 0 0 20 Kingsville 58 79 62 80 / 10 0 0 10 Navy Corpus 63 72 65 73 / 10 0 0 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning for TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447.

GM...None.