textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 609 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

- Moderate Heat Risk for South Texas today

- Low to medium rain/thunderstorm chances late in the week with the next front

- Marginal threat (1 out of 5) for severe storms today.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 143 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

cold front will continue to move slowly to the south across Texas today. While previous guidance hinted that this could reach into South Texas, HiRes and global models are now all stalling this to the north, which will limit the rainfall chances. At this point, most of the convection looks like it could be across our western areas this evening as storms move into the area from Mexico. With abundant moisture and sufficient instability, we could still see some strong to severe thunderstorms over the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country. SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk of Severe Weather across much of South Texas.

The cold front will finally begin a push across South Texas Friday, bringing us a medium to high (40-75%) chance of showers and thunderstorms across the northern Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. WPC has us in a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for Friday, so we'll need to monitor for some localized flash flooding. While it is technically north of our forecast area, it is nice to note that there is a medium (45-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms over the northern portions of our watershed. We'll keep our fingers crossed that some of this will actually have a chance to impact the lake levels.

Temperatures over the last few days have not reached as high as guidance has indicated, particularly across the Brush Country, so have dropped today's forecast highs a few degrees. As we move further into the week, cloud cover is expected to increase ahead of the cold front resulting in high temperatures in the 80s to mid-90s Thursday. Temperatures will be much cooler this weekend behind the front, with highs in the 70s possible across most of South Texas.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 609 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

MVFR conditions currently will improve to VFR over the next few hours and persist through the afternoon. There is a low chance for isolated showers and storms near COT, but confidence is low, thinking convection will mainly stay north, so will not include in TAF. MVFR CIGS return tonight.

MARINE

Issued at 143 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A gentle to moderate onshore flow (BF 3-4) through the end of the week may become fresh (BF 5) at times. A cold front will move across the waters Friday, with winds shifting to the northeast and increasing to strong to near Gale (BF 6-7). A low to medium (30- 60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms will develop Friday and continue into the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 143 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Despite warm temperatures and breezy conditions, fire weather concerns are not expected today. Low to medium rain chances through the end of the week will further inhibit fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 89 74 86 74 / 0 0 0 10 Victoria 91 69 88 70 / 10 10 10 30 Laredo 97 75 93 74 / 10 10 0 20 Alice 95 72 90 73 / 10 0 0 10 Rockport 86 75 85 75 / 0 0 0 10 Cotulla 97 72 89 71 / 20 20 0 40 Kingsville 92 73 89 73 / 0 0 0 10 Navy Corpus 84 76 83 75 / 0 0 0 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.