textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

- Dry and hot conditions through the weekend.

- Attention turns to an potential "cold" front towards the middle and latter half of next week, bringing slightly cooler temperatures and widespread rain chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

High pressure will remain in control through the weekend and into early next week, maintaining hot and mostly dry conditions across South Texas. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible each afternoon along the sea breeze, through measurable rainfall will remain limited for most locations.

Attention then turns to the middle and latter portions of next week as the upper-level pattern begins to change. A mid-level low is forecast to move across the Desert Southwest while remnants of an eastern Pacific tropical system advances across northern Mexico. Increasing moisture associated with these features should support an increase in rain and thunderstorm chances beginning around midweek. A cold front may also approach South Texas during this time, although considerable uncertainty remains regarding how far south the boundary will progress before potentially stalling north of the CWA. Given the uncertainty in the evolution and timing of these features, will continue to lean toward the NBM for now, with low to moderate rain chances beginning around midweek.

Above-normal temperatures will continue through early next week before trending slightly cooler during the latter half of the week as rain chances increase and the overall pattern changes. Afternoon heat index values will generally range between 100-105 degrees, with localized values approaching 110 at times. Overnight lows remain quite warm in the mid to upper 70's. Some relief from the heat may arrive during the latter half of next week, through the magnitude of any cooling will depend on the evolution of the approaching front and increasing rain chances.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF cycle. Patchy fog might develop at ALI and VCT between 10-14z, but probabilities were too low to include in the TAFs. Winds will be light overnight before increasing tomorrow afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Generally, a gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) east to southeasterly flow is expected to persist throughout the first half of next week, with seas between 2-4 feet. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible each day, with rain chances increasing by the middle of next week as deeper moisture moves into the region. Winds may become more onshore and seas could increase somewhat ahead of an approaching cold front, though uncertainty remains regarding the timing and southward progression of the boundary.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low through the period. Minimum RH values will generally remain above 30 % out west, while southeast winds of 10-5 mph are generally expected. ERC values remain near the 50th-65th percentile with normal fuel dryness across South Texas. RFTI values near zero further support minimal fire weather concerns. Increasing moisture and rain chances by the middle of next week should further limit fire weather potential.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 94 76 93 76 / 10 0 0 0 Victoria 100 71 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 99 75 100 76 / 10 0 0 0 Alice 97 73 97 73 / 10 0 10 0 Rockport 93 78 92 78 / 10 0 0 0 Cotulla 99 75 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 96 74 96 74 / 10 0 10 0 Navy Corpus 90 81 89 81 / 10 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.