textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 150 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

- Medium rain chances today, with higher rain chances becoming more focused over the Victoria Crossroads and northern Coastal Plains Monday and Tuesday.

- Max heat indices 104 to 108 degrees today and Monday with a moderate risk of heat-related impacts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

The mid-lvl easterly disturbance which has hung around in the vicinity of the area the last couple days will be shunted further west into NE Mexico today as ridging over the Gulf briefly builds westward. While this will likely result in some reduction of rain chances, PWATs remain in the 2.1 and 2.2 inch range (just above the 90th percentile) and thus expect scattered sea-breeze storms to develop. Given that the mean 1000-700mb flow direction will be S- SErly this would favor the highest rain chances over the northern Coastal Plains. Drier air, associated with a SAL plume, will filter into the area from S-N on Monday, and this should help further focus the highest rain chances over the Victoria Crossroads. As can be expected given the high PWAT values and time of year any storms will have the potential to produce locally heavy rainfall.

By Tuesday, our attention begins to turn to a convectively-enhanced easterly mid-lvl disturbance which will pivot southwestwards towards the area along the southern periphery of a strong (almost 600 dam) ridge over the Northern Plains. While rain chances associated with this disturbance should mostly focus over the Victoria Crossroads and points north on Tuesday, this broad disturbance will track further southwestward Wednesday which will result in at least medium- range chances returning area-wide. This disturbance, and in particular the southern extent of higher rain chances and amounts, has not been handled well by guidance in the extended period, so don't necessarily have particularly high confidence in the setup. However, I will highlight the potential for heavy rainfall given the potential for moisture pooling and convective training along a 700mb boundary. The mid-lvl disturbance will eventually be displaced westward by late next week which should result in lower rain chances for the end of the period.

Near normal temperatures should prevail for the first portion of the period, before perhaps briefly dropping a few degrees mid-week as the aforementioned disturbance progresses towards the area. While peak heat indices remain in the 104 to 108 degrees today into Monday, we will actually see a few less oppressive days Tuesday into Thursday due to a combination of drier air (Tuesday) and slightly cooler temperatures (Wednesday Thursday) which may drop peak heat indices to "only" around 100 degrees.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 150 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

A few showers and thunderstorms still remain along the Rio Grande, leading to MVFR ceilings for LRD. These will continue to drift away, allowing LRD to return to VFR by 08Z. Isolated showers could continue through the overnight, but will not mention this in the TAF as location and timing remain nebulous. Periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility are expected across South Texas in the morning hours (10Z- 15Z) so have included TEMPO groups for this. By late morning, southeast winds will increase and widespread VFR conditions will return.

MARINE

Issued at 150 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Generally gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) southeasterly-southerly winds with seas running 2 to 3 ft should persist through mid-week. Generally low to medium (25 to 40 percent) rain chances are expected today with any appreciable rain chances on Monday and Tuesday being largely confined to the northern waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 92 79 92 79 / 30 10 10 0 Victoria 93 76 92 76 / 50 20 50 40 Laredo 98 78 99 78 / 20 10 10 10 Alice 93 76 94 76 / 30 10 20 0 Rockport 91 82 91 82 / 30 20 20 10 Cotulla 97 77 97 77 / 20 10 20 20 Kingsville 92 77 93 77 / 30 10 10 0 Navy Corpus 90 82 89 82 / 30 10 20 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.