textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 123 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

- A cold frontal passage this afternoon into Thursday will bring low to medium rain chances (20- 40%).

- Medium to high chance (50-70%) of showers and storms Friday into Saturday. Some of these storms could be strong to severe and bring locally heavy rainfall.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 123 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

A cold front will continue to progress into our area this afternoon, with the wind shift already making it into northern counties as of 2 PM. Expect the wind shift to have cleared the area by sunset, with weak postfrontal cold advection peaking tonight into Thursday morning. Given that the boundary is well displaced from its upper-lvl support and the wind shift is outrunning cold advection do not expect much if any precipitation with the frontal passage for the majority of the area. There are signals in the latest CAM guidance that elevated thunderstorms capable of large hail could fire up near/in Webb county and the Rio Grande Plains late tonight into Thursday morning, but this threat should be confined to western areas.

Thursday will be a dreary day (by May standards) as a low- lvl inversion supports thick and persistent stratus. Highs should top out in the 70s although there remains a fairly large spread in guidance with the NAM depicting us struggling to reach 70 while the warmest guidance forecasts highs in the low to mid 80s. These inverted northeasterly flow regimes tend to favor cooler solutions so leaned in that direction with the forecast (although it could be even cooler than currently forecast). Although the surface front should remain south of the area, ejecting shortwave energy riding along the 850-925 front will support isolated to scattered showers through the day.

The most interesting period of the forecast period looks to be Friday into Saturday as the cold front lifts back north as a warm front and a fairly potent shortwave shifts toward the area. The low-lvl thermodynamic environment (namely the presence of capping) is the main source of uncertainty, but with robust moisture pooling (PWATS ~ 2 inches), and increasing dynamics and mid-lvl flow will need to closely monitor this period for severe potential and even hydro concerns, particularly if we can get multiple rounds of convection.

Once the shortwave moves through Saturday, the second half of the forecast period looks drier, although some precipitation can't be ruled out with a weak cold frontal passage late Sunday into Monday. Temperatures will generally run near seasonal normals with highs ranging from the mid 80s to the low 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 123 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

There is a medium-high chance (60-70%) we will see improvement to VFR conditions at all terminals apart from KVCT mid-late afternoon. A return to MVFR and even briefly IFR ceilings is then likely tonight into Thursday morning as a cold front moves through the area. Any precipitation in the TAF period will likely be limited to drizzle or sprinkles apart from KLRD where there is a 30% chance of thunderstorms early Thursday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 123 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Gentle southeasterly winds this afternoon and evening, will shift northeasterly and becoming moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) behind a cold front late tonight into Thursday morning. Northeasterly flow shifts back east-easterly Friday to Saturday with speeds generally in the gentle to moderate range. Low to medium (20-50%) shower and thunderstorm chances will persist Thursday through Saturday with highest chances late Friday into Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 123 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Relative humidity values will generally remain well above critical thresholds through at least Saturday. This high RHs combined with sustained 20 foot winds less than 20 mph and Energy Release Components (ERCs) below the 25th percentile will preclude any fire weather concerns. There will be multiple rounds of rain possible Thursday through Saturday so at least some wetting rain looks likely through the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 73 76 74 84 / 10 30 40 60 Victoria 68 77 68 81 / 10 20 30 70 Laredo 73 82 71 88 / 10 20 30 20 Alice 72 79 72 87 / 10 30 30 60 Rockport 73 77 74 85 / 10 30 40 60 Cotulla 69 78 68 84 / 10 20 30 30 Kingsville 73 77 73 86 / 10 30 40 60 Navy Corpus 75 76 76 83 / 10 30 40 50

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.