textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 527 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

- Low to medium rain chances into early next week, greater chances and focus over the Hill Country and North Texas.

- Warmer than normal temperatures continue.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 159 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

A slow moving Pacific front, currently over the Desert Southwest, is expected track eastward through West Texas and eventually stall just north of South Texas around Thursday night into Friday morning. Positive vorticity advection from the front will interact with PWAT values of 1.4-1.6" which will promote the development of showers, however, the limited instability and lift in the 700-850mb level will the limiting factor to heavy rainfall and beneficial rainfall. With the stalled front and deep moisture pooled over South Texas, rain chances will remain elevated (35-55%) through the weekend into early next week before rain chances tapering off Tuesday. Rainfall accumulations for the remainder of this week through the weekend are expected to remain between 0.25-1" across most of South Texas with the Victoria Crossroads region being the only area likely to see accumulation over 1" (1-2"). Our next chance to break this stretch of above normal temperatures will be mid to late next week with the arrival of our next cold front just in time for Thanksgiving.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 527 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions this evening will trend downward overnight as low-level moisture continues to deepen across the region. MVFR/IFR CIGs are expected to develop late tonight into early Thursday morning at several terminals. AT ALI and VCT, MVFR CIGs will lower to IFR/LIFR toward daybreak with brief periods of reduced VSBYs from fog. Improvement across the region is expected by late morning to early afternoon, as southeasterly winds strengthen with frequent gusts between 20-25 knots. A few showers and storms are progged to move into South Texas by early Thursday afternoon, but confidence on location and timing is still on the lower side at this time to be included in the TAFs. Although, precipitation will likely need to be introduced at 06Z issuance for our northern sites (COT and VCT).

MARINE

Issued at 159 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) southeasterly flow will persist through the end of the week, with seas holding near 3-5 feet. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through Thursday before increasing in coverage late Thursday into Friday and continuing through Saturday as a strong upper-level system approaches. By Friday and Saturday, wind direction may become more variable as a weak frontal boundary approaches the region, keeping daily chances for showers and thunderstorms in place through the weekend and early next week. By then, onshore flow will strengthen to fresh to strong (BF 5-6) ahead of the next passing frontal system.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 159 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Fire weather conditions are expected to remain minimal through early next week, as minimum relative humidity levels will be above 40% across the region. Winds are forecast to increase Wednesday in advance of an approaching frontal boundary, though the boundary itself is unlikely to make significant southward progress into South Texas. With abundant low-level moisture in place and the front lingering nearby, low to medium (30-50%) rain chances will continue through Saturday before easing slightly (20-40%)late this weekend and into early next week. Looking ahead into next week, another front is expected to sweep through.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 71 84 71 88 / 10 30 10 30 Victoria 66 84 67 86 / 10 40 30 70 Laredo 72 88 70 88 / 10 30 10 10 Alice 68 87 68 89 / 10 30 10 30 Rockport 72 83 73 84 / 10 30 10 40 Cotulla 70 86 67 85 / 20 50 40 20 Kingsville 69 86 69 89 / 10 30 10 20 Navy Corpus 74 81 74 83 / 10 30 10 40

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.