textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1208 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

- Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories in Effect through Sunday morning for freezing rain potential. Greatest impacts likely from Live Oak to the Victoria Crossroads

- Be alert for black ice inland early Sunday morning from wet roads during the day today, bridges and overpasses especially!

- Extremely cold wind chills region-wide Monday morning, ranging as low as 5-15 degrees. Prepare to protect the 4 Ps: People, plants, pets, and pipes.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1208 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Well... it's here. While there is still time to do preparations, time is starting to run out to do so while you can still feel your fingers. A drastic change in temperatures (72F at 0640 AM down to 52F within 25 minutes) has settled in across South Texas. Since the frontal passage, most locations have seen steady temperatures in the upper 30s to 40s. Additionally, the rain/thunderstorms associated with the front brought many inland locations have brought wet surfaces throughout the area. At the same time, winds behind the front have been gusting 20-30 mph out of the north. This is helping dry up some of the surfaces already, which will be of great benefit this evening with a light freeze in store. Tonight, an additional bout of precipitation chances will bring the low-to-moderate chances of freezing rain for locations within the Winter Storm Warning (and more so north of Hwy 59); CAMs such as the latest runs of the HRRR continue to keep the bulk of the showers associated with freezing rain moving through Victoria after 10Z, but quickly wrapping up after 13Z, so the period of ice accumulation will be a short one. Storm total ice accumulations did not change much from the previous package and the Winter Storm Warning is still advertising up to a tenth of an inch of ice accumulation for Goliad/Victoria Counties. Then we are done with the the threat of ice falling from the sky and quickly shift focus to any freezing of wet surfaces, but Sunday morning duration of temperatures below 32F will be limited to under 2 hours south of the Corpus Christi area, with longer durations N of Hwy 77 (approaching 8-12hrs).

For this reason, no additional changes were made to the hazards that were issued with forecast package issued before this one (I have included the well-written discussion below for your quick reference). While no decision was made to any expansion of the Extreme Cold/Freeze warnings beyond Monday afternoon, it is expected that these will be considered/issued overnight (once the frozen precipitation threat falling from the sky moves away from South Texas).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1247 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

The strong arctic front has now plunged south of San Antonio and east of Eagle Pass on the swinging backside, trending faster than previous model runs. The front will likely reach our northern counties from La Salle to Victoria in just a couple hours, then continue to rush southward extending passed Baffin Bay by 9 AM this morning. We'll maintain a medium to high chance for showers and a lower chance for thunderstorms through this morning, before we get weaker coverage of overrunning showers in the afternoon. High temperatures today have dropped to account for the faster progression. Honestly, the highs in the climate for today are likely occurring right now.

Another wave of showers and a few thunderstorms will pass over tonight into Sunday morning as the mid-level trough drapes across Texas. During this time, PWATs will continue to run above-normal (75-90th percentile) at 1.25-1.5" while CAA cause temperatures to lower. While model guidance was in fairly good agreement with freezing temperatures and periods of freezing rain where the Winter Storm Warning is in effect, there was less agreement south. Primarily, models varied on how far south freezing temperatures extend but generally agreed with precipitation lingering through Sunday mid-morning.

Considering that temperatures are colder than recent runs looking upstream throughout the past several hours and FROPA keeps speeding up, I am more concerned we are underestimating just how far south freezing temperatures will make it. Therefore, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the rest of South Texas with the exception of the islands. It's definitely not out of the question for temperatures to reach freezing across the region, and if it does, roads will likely be wet from rain during the day. These wet roads can freeze, especially on bridges and overpasses, creating black ice and dangerous conditions. Black ice and the brief window of light freezing rain early Sunday morning warrants a Winter Weather Advisory mention.

Early morning lows Monday and Tuesday look to be extreme and likely record breaking, dropping into the teens inland and to the low-mid 20s along the coast and Rio Grande. An Extreme Cold Warning applies everywhere Monday morning with wind chills dropping in the single digits over the inland Victoria Crossroads and the low to mid teens elsewhere.

Temperatures warm back into the 50s and 60s mid-late next week but another cold front will likely swing across Wednesday to Thursday, bringing near freezing conditions again. However, moisture will struggle to return and therefore have no precipitation chances mentioned.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

The strong arctic front moved through the region, bringing with it widespread MVFR to IFR CIGs/VSBYs, periods of showers, and gusty, northerly winds. Winds will veer to the north- northeast at speeds of 10-15 knots with occasional gusts up to 25 knots. Low CIGs will continue and rain showers will linger through much of the period. By approximately 06Z Sunday, we'll be monitoring for the potential for freezing rain through roughly 12z. Confidence is moderate for the northern Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads, but low confidence exists for the southern areas due to timing of the arrival of the freezing temperatures compared to when the precipitation moves into and out of the area. Included mention of FZRA for COT/VCT, but depending on updated trends later this evening, may need to add additional sites (ALI/CRP) if confidence in southward extent increases.

MARINE

Issued at 1208 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

A strong to near Gale (BF 6-7) north wind has settled in behind a strong arctic front. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected through Monday. Gust to gale will be possible at times, especially Sunday night. Rain chances will increase to a moderate to high chance and continue through Sunday morning. Temperatures will be around freezing along the coast with wind chill values feeling well below freezing during late Saturday night through Monday morning. Gentle to moderate onshore flow briefly returns the middle of next week before another cold front threatens to push through.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1208 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Moisture levels across South Texas will continue to be elevated ahead of the greatly advertised arctic front. Minimum RH vales are expected to stay mostly above 30% through mid-week next week, with the exception of Monday and Tuesday when values may briefly dip to 25-30%. However, light winds should prevent any meaningful fire weather concerns. As for precipitation, chances remain medium to high through Sunday morning, with only an isolated thunderstorm potential tonight. Overall, no fire weather conditions are expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 33 46 22 42 / 80 10 0 0 Victoria 27 41 18 39 / 90 20 0 0 Laredo 36 51 26 47 / 50 0 0 0 Alice 33 49 22 45 / 80 0 0 0 Rockport 33 47 24 43 / 90 20 0 0 Cotulla 33 47 22 44 / 80 0 0 0 Kingsville 34 49 22 43 / 80 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 37 47 27 42 / 80 10 0 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Monday for TXZ229>234-245>247-345>347-447.

Freeze Watch from midnight CST tonight through Sunday evening for TXZ229-239>244-342>345-442-443-447.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for TXZ229-239>244-342>344.

Freeze Warning from 11 PM Sunday to noon CST Monday for TXZ229- 239>244-342>345-442-443-447.

Freeze Warning from 7 PM this evening to noon CST Monday for TXZ230>234-245>247-346-347.

Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for TXZ230>234-245>247-346-347.

Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM CST Monday for TXZ239>244-342>344-442-443.

Extreme Cold Warning from 3 AM to noon CST Monday for TXZ239>244- 342>344-442-443.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ231-232-236- 237.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ250-255-270- 275.