textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 141 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

- Moderate HeatRisk across South Texas through the week and into the weekend.

- Daily low rain chances continue through the weekend, then increase to a medium chance early next week with heavy rainfall possible.

- Moderate to High Rip Current Risk and minor coastal flooding possible late in the week and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 141 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Mid level ridging will keep convection isolated through Friday. An inverted mid level trough is forecast to slowly move west across the region Friday and Saturday combined with slightly deeper low level moisture coming in from the gulf (moisture from T.S. Christina in the Pacific moving into Central America) will lead to a slightly more active sea breeze over the weekend with chances ranging from 10- 35%. Best chance for rain is expected early next week. A long wave trough moving east across the Plains and Texas will bring a weak cold front toward S TX. The front is progged to stall across S TX, which will provide moderate low level moisture convergence. PWATs of 2.1-2.3 inches will still be in place across S TX. The deep moisture combined with an unstable airmass south of the frontal boundary and increasing upper level support as the upper trough approaches the area, will be conducive for convective development with heavy rainfall. The stalled front will be the primary focus for the heaviest rainfall, which could lead to flash flooding. Confidence in this scenario coming to fruition is currently low to medium. If the front stalls north of the area, best rain chances will also be north of the area with much less rainfall across S TX. Continue to monitor for updates to the upcoming week's rainfall potential.

There is a moderate risk of heat related impacts through the week and weekend due to temperatures in the 90s combining with high humidity, leading to heat indices ranging 100-110 degrees.

The rip current risk is expected to become moderate to high beginning Friday and continuing Saturday. Swell periods are forecast to increase to 8-9 seconds, which also coincides with astronomically higher tides and nearing a new moon. This may result in a high rip current risk as well as minor coastal flooding by Friday into the weekend. This is due to a broad low forecasted to develop across the southern gulf, which will lead to a long fetch of east to southeast flow across the gulf toward the TX coast.

As for any tropical weather, the National Hurricane Center has a 10% chance of development of a broad low across the Bay of Campeche. However, conditions are not expected to be favorable for significant development.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 141 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

A few weak showers moving across inland locations this afternoon will diminish by late afternoon/early evening. An isolated shower could briefly move across a TAF site, but will have little to no aviation impacts. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon and evening. MVFR CIGs are expected to develop once again overnight into early Thursday morning. VSBYs may also drop briefly to MVFR levels due to patchy fog across the ALI area early Thursday morning. Conditions will improve to VFR by mid morning Thursday.

MARINE

Issued at 141 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) onshore flow will persist through the period. Seas 3-4 feet expected through Thursday, then increasing to 5-7 feet over the weekend in response to a long east-southeast fetch across the gulf. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this weekend becoming scattered to numerous early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 80 91 79 90 / 10 20 10 10 Victoria 77 92 77 93 / 0 10 10 20 Laredo 77 97 77 95 / 0 0 0 20 Alice 77 92 77 92 / 0 10 10 20 Rockport 82 91 82 91 / 10 10 0 0 Cotulla 77 96 77 95 / 0 0 0 20 Kingsville 78 91 78 90 / 0 10 10 10 Navy Corpus 82 90 82 89 / 0 10 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.