textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

- Rain chances Thursday could limit heat-related impacts

- Low (15-30%) rain chances this afternoon, then increasing to a medium to high (30-65%) chance tonight and Thursday.

- Minor coastal flooding remains a concern

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Fortunately for us, heat advisories look like they may be on a hiatus for the next few days. While moisture increases for Thursday, cloud cover and the potential for rain should limit temperatures and, thus, heat-related impacts.

PWAT values will increase to near 2.2" for Thursday, which could lead to some areas of heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding, particularly if the storms are slow-movers. Increased moisture and a low potential for rain will continue through Friday afternoon. Rain chances will drop to 5-20% by this weekend and into early next, with rain chances mainly along the seabreeze.

Models show a long easterly fetch developing across the northern gulf waters this week which may help push water farther up the beaches. Will continue to monitor trends for slightly higher than normal tides and/or an increased rip current risk. At this time, minor coastal flooding is not anticipated but will continue to be monitored.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Breezy conditions will develop again this afternoon, with gusts to around 25 knots expected at most terminals. Rain chances will develop along the seabreeze this afternoon with higher rain chances developing through Thursday afternoon, so have included a PROB30 for all but VCT. Generally, expect VFR conditions with periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility, mainly in and around thunderstorms.

MARINE

Issued at 153 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

A gentle to moderate (BF3-4) breeze is expected, with occasional periods of fresh (BF 5) breezes through early next week. Low to medium (20-45%) rain chances today and tonight with increase to a medium to high (30-70%) chance by Thursday, before decreasing to a low chance once again on Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

ERC values will improve to the 50-69th percentile for much of the region and remain at those levels through the end of the week. While ERC values will be decreasing, relative humidity values will be improving with 30-45% Wednesday and above 40% across all of South Texas Thursday into the weekend. Therefore, elevated fire weather conditions are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 80 95 79 94 / 30 40 40 30 Victoria 77 99 74 99 / 10 60 40 10 Laredo 77 101 77 99 / 0 20 20 30 Alice 77 98 76 98 / 10 30 30 30 Rockport 81 93 80 93 / 50 50 40 20 Cotulla 77 99 77 98 / 0 20 20 30 Kingsville 78 97 77 96 / 20 40 30 30 Navy Corpus 82 90 82 90 / 40 40 50 30

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.