textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 535 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

- Dangerous swimming conditions ahead of front, HIGH risk of rip currents tonight through Saturday

- Cold front early Sunday morning with reinforcing surge of high pressure Monday night into Tuesday morning

- Low (20-40%) chance of showers through tonight, increasing to moderate (40-60%) Saturday through Monday, greatest chances over Victoria Crossroads

- Near to below freezing wind chills early morning Monday through Wednesday from Victoria to La Salle counties

DISCUSSION

Issued at 105 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Showers will remain possible through the remainder of the day in association with the aforementioned mid-level shortwave. Anteceding the cold front, with a very moist atmosphere present, MLCAPE forecasted to be around 1000 J/kg, and sufficient shear aloft a marginal severe has been maintained including portions of South Texas. The primary area will be the Victoria Crossroads and portions of the Coastal Bend. The expected impacts will be "marginal hail" and damaging winds (per SPC). The expected timing for these storms will be Saturday evening through Sunday morning. Showers and thunderstorm chances look to linger in part due to a surface low and residual vorticity remaining in the region at least through Monday.

Now to the flip side of this cold front, lower temperatures are obviously going to be expected with this front. With the presence of strong cold air advection, widespread cloudy skies, and rainy conditions highs will only reach the 50s and 60s to begin the work week. Lows are expected to be in the 30s and 40s across the region beginning Monday night lasting through Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Though some of our drainage areas can potentially see temperatures approaching freezing, widespread freezing temperature chances remain low at this time. Feels like temperature values (Apparent Temperatures) will likely be around freezing in some spots however with values in the upper 20s to lower 30s, coolest values look to be Monday night into Tuesday morning. The areas most likely to experience this will be the northern portions of the region (La Salle extending to Victoria).

With the presence of strong onshore flow today through likely the early part of next week, a high risk of rip currents will likely persist along the Middle Texas Coast.

By Wednesday, onshore flow should return to the region resulting in a gradual warming trend across the area ahead of, you guessed it, another cold front! Rain chances will accompany this front as well as well as persisting cooler temperatures. Highs will top in 70s with lows predominately in the 50s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 535 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

A few light patchy showers are moving eastward across the Brush Country and inland Coastal Plains early this evening, accompanied by a blanket of BKN-OVC VFR CIGs between 3-6kft. We'll see periods of these CIGs dropping to MVFR through the morning hours, greater chances the closer you get to the Rio Grande. Rain chances will focus more over the Victoria Crossroads tomorrow, as noted by the VCSH and PROB30 at VCT. Southeasterly winds will decrease slightly tonight before restrengthening through the day tomorrow over the Coastal Plains, with sustained 15-20 knots and gusts 25-30 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 105 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Fresh to strong breeze will persist through Saturday night. A Small Craft Advisory will remains in effect through Saturday. There is high confidence a strong cold front will pass through early Sunday morning, leading to strong to near Gale (BF 6-7) north to northeasterly winds in the wake, diminishing to fresh to strong (BF 5-6) Sunday night into Tuesday. Low rain chances today will increase to a medium to high chance of 50-90% Saturday through Monday, then decrease to a low chance Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 105 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Minimum relative humidity will remain above 30% into early next week. A low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms will exist Friday through Monday, with greatest chances over the Victoria Crossroads. Although a cold front will pass through early Sunday morning with a reinforcing surge of high pressure on Tuesday, elevated fire weather conditions are not expected. Below normal temperatures dominate into the middle of next week following the cold front Sunday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 68 80 51 57 / 20 20 70 40 Victoria 61 79 45 54 / 30 50 80 20 Laredo 67 81 54 57 / 10 10 10 20 Alice 64 82 48 55 / 10 20 50 30 Rockport 68 80 51 59 / 30 40 80 40 Cotulla 64 80 50 56 / 20 10 20 10 Kingsville 66 83 50 58 / 10 10 50 40 Navy Corpus 70 78 55 62 / 30 30 70 50

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for TXZ345-442- 443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275.