textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 108 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

- Moderate to Major risk of heat-related impacts each afternoon with increased Extreme risk this weekend

- Low chances (10-20%) through the weekend. Greater chances (20-45%) Wednesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 108 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Like a broken record player... the tune of hot and low chances of showers continue through the forecast period. Wednesday and Thursday still like the days with the greatest chances for showers and thunderstorms along the coastal plains thanks to an inverted mid- level trough moving through and with tropical-moisture advecting westward across the Gulf of Mexico. With PWATs in the coastal plains forecast to increase to 2.00-2.25" (near the 90th percentile) and the added ascent from the mid-level trough, any shower that develops can quickly drop 0.5 inch. In the strongest storm, isolated 1-2 inch accumulations can't be ruled out, but these higher amounts will likely fall around the Matagorda Bay area. Further inland and into the Brush Country, rain chances will still primarily be seabreeze driven combined with any outflow interactions from storms along the coastal plains, and thus more likely Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

While the daily chances for showers has been so desperately needed to slow down the spread of drought, unfortunately it comes at the expense of daily hot temperatures, still ranging 5-10F above normal values for afternoon highs. We'll keep the Moderate to Major HeatRisk through Friday, with Extreme risk out in the Brush Country. But come this weekend, we are forecast to see a bigger expansion of this Extreme risk across South Texas. While the increased rain chances Wednesday and Thursday may keep the Heat Advisory issuance at bay for now, a drier trend may prompt the need for heat headlines in the latter-half of the week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 108 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Seabreeze showers this afternoon have been isolated to scattered enough to just keep KVCT under VCSH through 21Z. Some this morning's hi-res models have wanted to throw some late-afternoon seabreeze storms near KCOT, but confidence in that is low, so keeping mention of that out of the TAF for now. From 08Z, added in VCSH for KVCT as storms start moving in from the Gulf and then having a prevailing rainfall from 12Z with PROB30 through 18Z for light TSRA, bringing down to MVFR conditions. At KCRP, VCSH were added in from 12Z, but have lower confidence in how widespread showers/storms will be to include a prevailing precip line. So opted for a PROB30 group through 18Z. Beyond the TAF cycle, we'll have to consider PROB30/prevailing groups for showers/storms in the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 108 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Light south to southeast flow during the morning hours, will increase to gentle to moderate flow in the afternoon and evening hours through Thursday. Flow increases to a gentle to moderate with occasionally fresh this upcoming weekend. Seas will continue to generally range from 2-3 feet, increasing a foot this weekend. There will be low to medium rain chances daily.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 207 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Above normal moisture will continue to negate fire weather concerns through much of this work week as minimum relative humidity stays above 30 percent. Daily low rain chances along the seabreeze with southeasterly winds generally sustained between 5-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Rain chances increase over the Coastal Plains Wednesday and Thursday. Elevated fire weather conditions creep back this upcoming weekend with relative humidity dropping briefly to 25- 30 percent over the Brush Country and winds increasing.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 79 95 78 96 / 10 30 10 20 Victoria 77 100 76 99 / 20 60 20 40 Laredo 79 103 78 103 / 0 10 10 10 Alice 76 100 75 101 / 10 20 10 20 Rockport 81 93 80 93 / 30 50 20 30 Cotulla 77 102 77 101 / 0 10 0 10 Kingsville 77 98 76 99 / 10 30 10 20 Navy Corpus 82 91 81 91 / 20 30 10 20

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.