textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 107 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

- Rain chances (20-40%) primarily north of Hwy 59, though lower confidence of night showers closer to the Coastal Bend

- Lower confidence in rainfall Friday west of Hwy 77, but seabreeze convection a bit more certain near the Victoria Crossroads.

- HeatRisk remains the dominant risk to South Texas

DISCUSSION

Issued at 107 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

As the southeastern periphery of the mid/upper-level high pressure starts filling in, this will allow upper-level disturbances to dive south across Texas this afternoon and evening. CAMs are in agreement that this elevated convection will start in south-central Texas and move south through the evening, approaching the Hwy 59 corridor. As this precipitation will be elevated in nature, virga and evaporative cooling will allow for some gusty and erratic outflows with the strongest storms, but this will be isolated. Where the CAMs do struggle is how far south any of these showers/storms make it toward the Middle Texas coast after 7 PM. For now, I have introduced some 15-25% PoPs south of Hwy 59 after sunset, but the general trend is for any shower activity to start becoming more isolated in nature and on a waning phase.

Additional shower activity will restart closer to the I-10 corridor on Friday afternoon/evening, but that is where CAMs come into a bit more of disagreement as to the initiation and coverage. There is greater confidence in shower activity in the Victoria Crossroads from any remnant boundary and seabreeze activity. Saturday is more seabreeze-rainfall dominant, but nothing to atypical from your popcorn storm coverage/rainfall.

In the absence of any rainfall (or even worse, with any short- duration/light accumulation followed by copious sunshine), the HeatRisk brought by increased moisture will reach major to extreme levels. Continue to practice heat safety and remember: hydrate, hydrate, hydrate!

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 107 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Generally, VFR conditions expected through the TAF cycle. Toward the end of the cycle (21Z-06Z) PROB30 groups have been added/continued for VCT, COT, and CRP for showers.

MARINE

Issued at 107 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Expect daily gentle to moderate southeasterly winds (BF 3-4) with 1- 2 ft seas through mid-week. Rain chances (20-40%) return on Friday and Saturday generally north of Port Aransas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 107 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Minimum relative humidity values will drop to as low as 20-25% this afternoon across the Brush Country. With the Energy Release Component forecast to hover in the 70th-89th percentile, the fire risk will remain elevated, but weak winds in the afternoons will limit the necessity for a fire headline. Additionally, afternoon and evening rainfall chances tonight will bring low-end chances for a wetting rain, though this will be isolated to the northern Brush Country. Similar conditions will continue through the weekend with seabreeze bringing isolated rain chances.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 98 79 96 78 / 0 10 10 10 Victoria 104 77 100 75 / 20 20 40 10 Laredo 106 80 104 79 / 0 10 10 10 Alice 103 76 101 75 / 0 0 10 0 Rockport 93 81 92 80 / 0 20 30 10 Cotulla 105 78 103 77 / 10 20 10 10 Kingsville 101 77 99 77 / 0 0 10 0 Navy Corpus 91 81 91 81 / 0 10 10 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.