textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 621 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

- Drier conditions through midweek.

- Seasonably hot conditions with a moderate to major risk of heat- related impacts through the week. Peak heat indices will range between 100-110 degF.

- Monitoring for impacts along the Middle Texas Coast from Tropical Depression Two.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Ridging will continue across South TExas through the middle of the week, promoting a persistent pattern of hot, mainly dry weather. Temperatures will gradually climb each day, with highs reaching the mid- to upper 90s across the Coastal Bend and Coastal Plains, while the Brush Country and Rio GRande Plains climb into the triple digits. Afternoon mixing should lower dewpoints enough to keep peak heat index values generally between 100-110 degF. We are also looking at a moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk will persist across much of the region today and tomorrow with more pockets of major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk during the afternoons Wednesday/Thursday. With this in mind, conversations regarding the issuance of Heat Advisory products for Wednesday/Thursday may become necessary with later forecast packages. Rain chances will remain very low through midweek due to the subsident nature of the ridge.

Forecast confidence decreases late in the week because of current Tropical Depression Two. The system remains poorly organized due to mid-level dry air limiting deep convection, though gradual strengthening into what may become Tropical Storm Bertha remains possible later today or tonight while wind shear remains relatively weak. However, increasing northeasterly shear and eventually interaction with the northern Gulf Coast should limit additional strengthening and may lead to gradual weakening. The depression is expected to drift northwest before eventually turning west as strengthening mid-level ridging over the Southern Plains becomes the primary steering mechanism. While the latest forecast track has shifted slightly north and keeps the center near or along the northern Gulf Coast, forecast confidence in both track and intensity remains low.

For us here in South Texas, the majority of deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to favor the more significant impacts remaining north and east of the region. However, given the aforementioned uncertainty surrounding the system's evolution, low- end rain chances remain in the forecast late this week to account for the possibility of that deeper tropical moisture or outer rain bands spread farther westward. Additionally, regardless of the cyclone's exact track, increasing easterly swell is expected to arrive along the Middle Texas Coast late this week, leading to deteriorating marine conditions with rougher surf, a heightened risk of rip currents, and an increasing potential for minor coastal flooding.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Tonight through tomorrow morning have LIFR conditions for ALI, IFR for VCT, MVFR at CRP and VFR at COT/LRD. Tomorrow late morning VFR conditions accompanied by afternoon southwesterly winds for VCT to south to southeasterly winds across all other terminals. Generally expecting lighter winds but may have occasional gusts to around 15-20KT.

MARINE

Issued at 317 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

A moderate (BF 4) onshore flow is forecast for the next several days, and rain chances through midweek will be very low (<10%). By Wednesday night into Thursday, confidence in the forecast decreases slightly as we will be monitoring for impacts associated with current Tropical Depression Two. Regardless of the eventual track and strength of this system, we are expecting increasing wave heights, winds, and rain chances. However, details will continue to be refined with subsequent forecasts as we receive increased observational data.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 74 99 73 101 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 72 100 74 102 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 77 107 77 106 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 73 103 72 104 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 79 92 79 94 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 75 105 77 106 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 73 100 72 102 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 79 91 79 92 / 0 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.