textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 116 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

- Temperatures will remain above normal today and Wednesday. A Heat Advisory may be needed Wednesday.

- Heavy rainfall and the threat for flash flooding is increasing for the latter part of this week. A Flash Flood Watch may be needed for Thursday and/or Friday.

- Minor coastal flooding possible starting by mid-week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 116 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Seabreeze convection is possible today due to an increase in moisture and a weakness in the seemingly ever-present ridge.

Above normal temperatures will continue through Wednesday under high pressure. Heat index values could reach 110 for a few hours across the Coastal Plains and along the coast Wednesday, which could lead to a Heat Advisory.

Things are going to really change later this week as a mid to upper level trough/low moves over Texas, increasing moisture across South Texas. An associated cold front will move into North Texas Wednesday, while a pre-frontal trough develops across South Texas leading to showers and thunderstorms beginning Thursday. This moisture will interact with the pre-frontal surface trough, leading to showers and thunderstorms beginning Thursday. The main cold front is forecast to move into South Texas Friday or Saturday, continuing rain chances as the attendant low slowly tracks across Texas. With PWATs nearing 2.5 inches, heavy rainfall is expected, with flash flooding possible. WPC has included most of South Texas in a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall Thursday and Friday. A Flash Flood Watch may become necessary, but while confidence is high in the abundant moisture, differences in model solutions keep confidence in the cold front low so will continue to hold off on issuing this for now.

Minor coastal flooding will be possible starting Tuesday as winds strengthen across the gulf waters. The P-ETSS indicates tide levels up to 1.8 feet above MSL for Tuesday-Thursday, increasing to nearly 2 feet by Friday during times of high tide. However, confidence is low that water will reach the dunes due to swell periods of 7 seconds or less. In addition, the wind direction will play a role in how high tides get. If they are more southerly, then higher tides are less likely, but east to southeast winds would be more conducive. Will continue to monitor trends for any changes.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 116 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the majority of the TAF cycle. MVFR visibilities at ALI and ceilings at COT and LRD will be possible this morning from 10-14z. Rain chances pick up at a couple sites after 10z. Gusty winds also return tomorrow with every site seeing a portion of this TAF cycle with gusts over 20 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 116 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) east to southeasterly flow is expected to persist, along with seas between 2-3 feet, this afternoon. Winds will increase to fresh to strong (BF 5-6) by tonight. Small Craft Advisories may be needed by Tuesday night through Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected Tuesday, then increasing to scattered to numerous by Thursday and Friday. Rain chances continue through the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 116 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

No significant fire weather concerns are anticipated through the period. Increasing moisture will bring moderate rain chances today for eastern portions of South Texas, followed by widespread showers and thunderstorms starting around mid-week through the weekend. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible across all of South Texas, with widespread wetting rainfall expected to limit fire weather concerns through the latter half of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 93 79 94 80 / 30 20 20 20 Victoria 97 76 97 77 / 50 30 30 30 Laredo 101 79 103 79 / 0 0 0 30 Alice 97 77 99 77 / 20 20 10 10 Rockport 91 80 92 81 / 50 20 20 30 Cotulla 100 78 102 77 / 0 0 0 30 Kingsville 95 78 97 79 / 20 20 10 10 Navy Corpus 90 82 90 83 / 30 30 20 30

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.