textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 127 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

-Line of storms will move through the area early this morning bringing heavy rainfall and strong winds.

- Multiple rounds of storms are expected through the upcoming weekend. At least a marginal to slight risk of flash flooding each day, with a potentially increasing risk of river flooding later in the period as rainfall totals add up.

- Hazardous beach conditions persist for one more day, with a high risk of rip currents expected along the Middle Texas Coast and a chance for minor coastal flooding with today's high tide cycle.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Synoptic Overview: A very active and wet spring pattern will prevail for at least the next 7 days as the subtropical jet is positioned over South Texas, directing a procession of low to medium amplitude mid-lvl disturbances over the area. At the surface, a nearly stationary cold front is analyzed over Central Texas early this morning. This boundary should remain north of our area, and then eventually lift back northward Thursday into Friday. The overall low-lvl synoptic pattern will be characterized by warm and moist S-SE flow through Saturday, although the presence of outflow boundaries/cold pools and associated mesoscale gradients will likely complicate the surface picture at times.

Forecast Details: The aforementioned pattern will be characterized by elevated rain chances (generally 50 to 80%) more or less every day through early next week. Despite lower than normal predictability due to the progressive/low-amplitude nature of the mid-lvl disturbances, at this point there are a few potentially more impactful periods to highlight within the broader active period.

1.) Early this morning: A progressive MCS (which originally initiated near the stationary front well to our north) is moving through the area early this morning, bringing locally heavy rainfall (1-3 inch totals) and strong to even damaging winds (although current radar trends are not overly impressive). This feature should clear the area around or just after daybreak.

2.) Tonight into Thursday: Convection will likely develop over the higher terrain of NE Mexico this afternoon, and then aided by lift from a low amplitude shortwave will likely progress eastward into the Rio Grande Plains this evening/tonight and then towards the Coastal Plains Thursday morning. While overall this system looks smaller-scale and likely weaker (due to less instability) than this morning's disturbance there is an outside chance at an isolated severe gust and potential hydro concerns (dependent upon this morning's rainfall totals). Guidance loosely favors the southern half our area to experience the highest totals, but given the less organized nature of this disturbance not particularly confident in placement.

3.) Late Friday night into Saturday: The highest amplitude mid-lvl disturbance of the period moves into the area late Friday night into Saturday. Although we are just outside of the CAM range, another MCS with heavy rainfall seems probable to accompany this system. Assuming we will be "primed" due to antecedent rainfall earlier in the period, hydro concerns may become amplified with this period.

The aforementioned mid-lvl disturbance looks to cut-off near or just north of our area Sunday into early next week. If this low can progress far enough north/east we would have at least a brief period of somewhat drier conditions as drier filters into the area on its western flank. Conversely, if it stalls more or less overhead we will likely see continued wet conditions into Memorial Day/Tuesday. Temperatures through the entire period will be highly dependent upon convective timing, although assuming the overnight period remains most active, highs should largely run near to just below normal.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 127 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

The main concern for the first half of the TAF period will be a line of storms progged to move through early this morning. Currently 06 to 12Z looks to be the most probable time frame for direct terminal impacts, with strong winds (gusts in excess of 35 kts) and temporary visibility reductions the primary concerns. Winds will generally be out of the SE outside of gusty and erratic thunderstorm outflows. Most shower/thunderstorm activity moves offshore leading to VFR conditions through the afternoon. From 00Z, thunderstorm activity off the mountains of Mexico will move eastward, though timing on this will depend on exact timing/location of storm development, so I have added PROB30s from 00Z-06Z for KCOT/KLRD/ALI for thunderstorm/shower activity.

MARINE

Issued at 127 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) easterly-southeasterly winds are expected to prevail through the work week with seas decreasing to 3 to 4 ft by late this afternoon. Several rounds of thunderstorms can be expected through the weekend with the first round expected early to mid morning today. Brief periods of strong winds (greater than 34 kts), elevated seas, and reduced visibility can be expected in storms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 127 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

No fire weather concerns through the week as moisture increases and minimum RHs remain over 50% area-wide. Medium to high rain chances (50-80%) are expected each day through Saturday. These should be solid wetting rains with aerial averaged totals largely in the 2 to 4 inch range through Saturday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 89 76 86 75 / 50 40 70 40 Victoria 88 73 84 71 / 50 50 90 60 Laredo 93 72 88 72 / 30 70 80 50 Alice 90 74 87 72 / 50 40 80 50 Rockport 89 78 87 77 / 50 40 70 50 Cotulla 89 71 86 70 / 40 80 70 40 Kingsville 89 75 87 73 / 40 40 80 40 Navy Corpus 86 78 85 78 / 40 40 60 40

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ245-343>347-442-443-447.

High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ345-442-443- 447.

GM...None.