textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 605 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- A cold front by the end of the work week will bring cooler and drier conditions to South Texas this weekend.

- Generally dry across South Texas through Thursday with a slight increase Friday associated with the cold front.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk today and tonight.

- Minor coastal flooding will be possible once again this weekend.

- Gale conditions possible Friday night into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

The combination of a weak mid level short wave and deep moisture (PWATs 2.0-2.2 inches) will result in a more active sea breeze today. The best chance (30-40%) will be along the coastline up to the Victoria Crossroads. Low to very low rain chances are expected for Thursday as the high pressure aloft regains it's hold over S TX and maintains the well above normal temperatures.

A cold front Friday will bring some relief from the heat with highs this weekend around 5-10 degrees cooler and lows around 10-15 degrees cooler. The temperatures begin to warm back up early next week.

Ahead of the cold front on Friday, rain chances increase to a 20-30% with up to 40% along the coastline. The highest chance up to 80% will be over the gulf waters where the deepest moisture will reside. At this time, it looks like mainly showers with a few thunderstorms remaining sub-severe.

Winds are progged to shift to the northeast Friday morning ahead of the main cold front, then strengthen throughout the day as high pressure builds across the region leading to a breezy to windy day. The cooler and drier airmass is forecast to arrive later in the day on Friday and into the overnight hours. This weekend looks to be pleasant with winds relaxing along with a cooler and drier airmass.

As for minor coastal flooding, will let the Coastal Flood Advisory expire at 1 AM based on lower observed tide levels and cameras along the islands showing that the water is not quite up to the dunes. Strong northeast winds across the gulf waters in the wake of the cold front Friday through Saturday will likely lead to minor coastal flooding once again. Seas are forecast to build to 10-12 feet and swell periods increase to 8-9 seconds. All of which are conducive for pushing water up to the dunes during times of high tide. If the winds and seas are slightly higher than expected, a Coastal Flood Warning may be warranted with water up to 3 feet above MSL during high tide. However, confidence is very low that we will see tides that high. Will continue to monitor trends as we go through the week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

MVFR CIGS are very patchy across the area this morning, currently not affecting any TAF sites, but very close to ALI. Still could see expansion of these clouds toward western sites over the next few hours. VFR conditions are then expected through the afternoon with a similar pattern tonight of scattered to possibly broken low clouds late in the night. Strong southeasterly winds are expected this afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) southeast flow will persist through Thursday along with relatively low rain chances. A cold front is expected to move across the waters Friday, shifting winds to the northeast and increasing to fresh to strong (BF 5-6) by Friday night, with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. Periods of near gale to gale (BF 7-8) conditions are possible Friday evening into Saturday morning along with increasing seas. Rain chances increase ahead of the cold front then diminish in the wake of the front.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

No significant fire weather concerns are anticipated through the work week with elevated humidity in place across the area. A strong cold front Friday will increase rain chances and bring a strong north to northeast wind in it's wake. Drier and cooler conditions are expected this weekend. Although minimum RH values may drop below 30% across the Brush Country this weekend, winds are expected to relax, becoming light. Therefore, elevated fire weather concerns are not expected this weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 91 75 90 72 / 10 10 10 10 Victoria 93 70 92 68 / 30 10 0 10 Laredo 99 75 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 94 72 92 70 / 10 10 0 10 Rockport 90 77 89 73 / 20 0 10 20 Cotulla 99 72 95 71 / 0 10 0 0 Kingsville 92 72 90 70 / 10 10 10 10 Navy Corpus 88 79 87 77 / 10 0 10 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.