textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 634 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- Isolated seabreeze showers/storms each afternoon through the end of the week, then increasing Saturday through early next week.

- Moderate heat risk daily through the weekend.

- Moderate to High Rip Current Risk and minor coastal flooding possible late in the week and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Mid-level ridging continues to be what we're keeping our eyes on for the forecast for the next several days. Latest guidance looks to be trending toward a stronger ridge through the weekend which would shunt some of the approaching tropical moisture farther south of our area and limit rain chances at least through Saturday. The ridge does gradually weaken into early next week and we still expect increasing rain chances, especially with a boundary expected to stall in the area.

What this looks like in terms of rain chances is a continued low chance for Friday followed by a low to moderate chance (20-30%) on Saturday. PWATS should be above 2" by Saturday, but not as high as previously expected. The moisture increase looks better Sunday into early next week, so will maintain high PoPs, but changes in the ridge strength could ultimately have an impact on this as well. The digging trough moving into the area should help lower the uncertainty though for Monday/Tuesday period. At that time PWAT values still are in the vicinity of 2.5" and would lead to heavy downpours. Wherever the front does stall, it will act as a focus for convection and a multi-day total through mid-week of 1-3 inches is potentially on the conservative side. Not everyone would see this much, so we'll have to keep an eye on where the boundary stalls. We are under a marginal to slight ERO for Monday and Monday night, and this will likely be extended into Tuesday.

While the mid-level ridge could limit rain chances for at least Saturday, it will not have an impact on coastal water concerns including minor coastal flooding and an increase in rip currents. Have added a high risk of rip currents for Saturday and this will likely be extended through Sunday as long period swells move into the area.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A mix of MVFR/VFR conditions currently across South Texas with VFR returning by late morning and continuing late tonight. Overnight CIGs are expected to be VFR/MVFR once again. Winds this afternoon will gust to around 20-25KT out of the southeast.

MARINE

Issued at 145 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) onshore flow will persist through the period. Seas 3-4 feet expected through Thursday, then increasing to 6-8 feet over the weekend in response to a long east-southeast fetch across the gulf. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this weekend become scattered to numerous early next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 145 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Rain chances through the week will be on the low end (10-15%) through the end of the week, but increase to moderate to even high chances over the weekend and especially into early next week. Wetting rains are looking more likely. RH values will remain elevated and no elevated fire concerns are anticipated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 91 79 90 80 / 10 10 30 10 Victoria 93 76 93 77 / 10 0 30 0 Laredo 96 76 95 76 / 10 0 20 0 Alice 92 76 91 77 / 10 10 20 0 Rockport 91 82 91 82 / 10 10 30 20 Cotulla 95 76 95 77 / 20 0 10 0 Kingsville 91 77 90 78 / 10 10 20 10 Navy Corpus 89 82 88 82 / 10 10 30 20

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.