textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

- Minor coastal flooding will be possible through Wednesday during high tide cycles

- Generally dry across South Texas today with a low chance of rain returning to the region by Monday

- A cold front may sweep through South Texas at the conclusion of the week bringing cooler and windier conditions with precipitation potential

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Minor coastal flooding will remain a concern along the Middle Texas Coast through at least the middle of the week. P-ETSS guidance continues to indicate elevated water levels coinciding with higher astronomical tides, potentially resulting in minor inundation of beaches and beach roads, particularly around times of high tide.

Above normal temperatures will persist across South Texas through much of the upcoming work week as midlevel ridging remains in place ahead of a cold front and cooler temperatures by next weekend. Meanwhile, a substantial increase in atmospheric moisture and passing low-level disturbances will support periodic rain chances.

PWATs this morning around 1.25" at CRP are expected to increase rapidly over the next 24 hours, peaking around 2.3 - 2.4". Despite the anomalously high moisture content, limited large-scale forcing should keep rainfall coverage relatively low. However, weak low- level disturbances and mesoscale boundaries may provide sufficient lift for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through much of the week. The greatest rain chances are expected Monday, particularly across the northern Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads, where moderate probabilities are forecast. Otherwise, generally low rain chances will persist through the remainder of the week.

Attention then turns to a cold front expected to approach South Texas late in the week. Operational guidance has trended toward better agreement regarding the front reaching the forecast area, although notable differences remain in its timing and strength. The GFS favors a Friday FROPA, while the Euro delays the boundary until Saturday. These differences introduce uncertainty regarding the onset and magnitude of post-frontal cooling, along with the strength of the associated northerly winds. Higher-resolution guidance, including the NAM, should help refine these details as the event draws closer. Given the remaining uncertainty, there is little reason to deviate from the NBM at this time.

High temperatures will generally range from the lower 90s to around 100 degrees through much of the week before falling into the lower to middle 80s behind the front. Overnight lows could fall into the upper 50s to mid 60s across inland areas, with milder conditions along the immediate coast. These temperatures remain subject to adjustment as confidence increases in the timing and strength of the front.

In addition to cooler temperatures, the frontal passage could produce a period of strong northerly winds, potentially approaching Wind Advisory criteria. Confidence in the occurrence and magnitude of these winds remains limited, but the potential will need to be monitored in subsequent forecasts.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

This afternoon VFR conditions will be accompanied by southeasterly winds gusting to around 20KT. Increasing moisture today will increase likelihood of MVFR CIGs overnight mainly west. Also included MFVR VSBYs for ALI. Tomorrow morning VFR conditions return with increasing precipitation chances towards the afternoon mainly along the coast and near VCT. Otherwise, similar conditions can be expected.

MARINE

Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Moderate to occasionally fresh (BF 4-5) onshore flow will persist through much of the week, with moderate rain chances continuing as moisture increases. A cold front is expected to move across the waters Friday or Saturday, shifting winds to the northeast and increasing to fresh to strong levels, with brief near-gale conditions possible and Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. Elevated seas are also expected, while rain chances diminish if the wake of the front.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Above normal temperatures will continue across South Texas through much of the week, with highs generally ranging from the 90s to around 100 degrees. However, increasing atmospheric moisture will maintain minimum RH values above critical thresholds across most locations. Winds will generally remain below 15 mph, although somewhat stronger winds are forecast for Wednesday afternoon.

A cold front is expected to move through South Texas next weekend, bringing cooler temperatures and potentially stronger northerly winds. Despite the possibility of elevated winds behind the front, relatively high humidity, periodic rain chances, and low ERC percentiles should limit overall fire weather concerns. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 77 92 79 93 / 30 20 10 10 Victoria 73 94 76 96 / 0 40 10 20 Laredo 76 98 78 100 / 10 0 0 0 Alice 74 95 76 96 / 20 10 0 10 Rockport 79 91 81 91 / 20 40 10 10 Cotulla 75 98 77 100 / 10 10 10 0 Kingsville 75 93 77 94 / 20 10 0 10 Navy Corpus 81 89 82 89 / 30 30 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ245-342>347- 442-443-447.

GM...None.