textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

- Moderate to high rain chances continue through Saturday with low to moderate on Sunday.

- Seasonal temperatures through Monday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

The mid-level disturbance that has been affecting us has mainly pushed off to the northwest, though some lingering energy remains along the Rio Grande, and could see a showers/storms continue there through tonight. Otherwise expect mainly quiet conditions overnight. At the surface, winds have shifted to the northeast, but the surface boundary remains well to the northwest. The boundary will sink into the area tonight, but modify substantially and we will likely not see anything noticeable with it's passage. The boundary is then expected to stall near the coast, but most likely just to the east of the coastline. This will keep unsettled weather in the area for the next several days. Deep east and southeast flow will continue to usher moisture into South Texas. Tomorrow will increase rain chances in the afternoon as a wave of moisture supported by mid- level low pressure over the southern Gulf pushes in. Medium to high rain chances continue on Sunday, especially in the afternoon. By Monday the mid-level ridging along with the boundary will begin drifting eastward in response to an approaching shortwave. This will keep rain chances mainly confined to the coast or offshore. Another boundary drops into the area mid-week with this shifting pattern and is currently expected to bring an end to the wet pattern. That said, there is considerable uncertainty in how the end of the week looks with some guidance suggesting coastal troughing and onshore flow returning to South Texas and increasing rain chances once again.

The above mentioned unsettled pattern will keep temperatures under control through the weekend and into the early part of next week with highs mainly in the 80s area wide. Unfortunately, with the elevated moisture, low temps will continue to be at summer-like levels in the mid 70s. As the column dries a bit the middle of next week low temps could cool a few degrees...but we'll also warm temps a few degrees...back to a bit above normal.

Due to the persistent northeasterly flow enhancing the Ekman transport mechanism and increasing 7-8 second swell periods, minor coastal flooding is worth monitoring this weekend, especially during high tide at night into the early morning hours.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

MVFR conditions at KLRD/KCOT will continue through the late morning, otherwise most sites will stay at VFR conditions. After 18Z, hi-res models are struggling on where the showers and thunderstorms will develop exactly along the coastal plains. As such, all terminals have PROB30 groups to account for the uncertainty. Where these showers/storms develop will guide future PROB30 groups in the upcoming TAF cycles. What is looking more certain is that winds will generally become more NNE'ly at 10-20 kts after 06Z and most sites dropping into MVFR CIGs. We will have to monitor the CIGs for IFR conditions.

MARINE

Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Gentle to moderate northeasterly flow Saturday will strengthen to fresh to strong Sunday to Tuesday morning, leading to occasional Small Craft Advisory conditions. Moderate to fresh northeasterly flow will return through the latter half of next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through Tuesday, then low rain chances latter half of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

No significant fire weather concerns are anticipated through next work week. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected through the weekend with lower chances mainly confined to the coast Monday then becoming rain-free starting Tuesday. RH values will remain elevated through mid-week, above 40% each day with highs struggling to reach the 90s. By the latter half of the week temps warm a bit and RH values start dropping into the 30s.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 88 73 84 73 / 70 70 50 40 Victoria 90 70 87 71 / 60 30 30 10 Laredo 86 71 85 72 / 60 50 50 20 Alice 88 71 84 71 / 70 60 40 20 Rockport 89 75 87 75 / 80 70 50 40 Cotulla 86 71 86 72 / 60 20 30 0 Kingsville 88 72 84 72 / 80 70 50 40 Navy Corpus 87 77 85 77 / 70 80 50 70

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.