textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

- There is a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall on Monday across the southern Coastal Bend, mainly right along the coast south of Port Aransas.

- Rain chances diminish across South Texas through Monday, then return Thursday. A medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms will remain across the Middle Texas Coastal Waters through much of the period.

- A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect until 7 PM Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

A broad mid level trough across the western gulf combined with a stalled frontal boundary along the TX coast will continue to bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to the Middle Texas Coastal Waters through mid week. However, rain chances will diminish across S TX tonight through Monday as the stalled front drifts farther out into the gulf and a mid level ridge nudges across S TX. Quiet weather is in store for Monday through Wednesday, then Rain chances return later in the week as a mid level low approaches S TX and pushes the ridge southward.

Minor coastal flooding is expected during times of high tide through Tuesday, possibly into Wednesday. This is due to a moderate to strong northeast flow across the northwest gulf waters. High tides will vary from overnight into morning at Baffin Bay and in the morning to afternoon at Port Oconnor, thus tidal overflow may be somewhat continuous over the next couple of days.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through the afternoon with the highest chance along the coastline, then along the Rio Grande by late afternoon into early evening. PROB30 groups have been included in the TAFs to address the potential for storms and MVFR/IFR conditions. Rain chances are expected to decrease tonight through Monday across S TX, but remain across the Coastal Waters. Outside of the convection, conditions are expected to be mostly MVFR CIGs. Winds will generally be north to northeast at 5-15 knots with occasional gusts up to 25 knots are possible. However, stronger gusts maybe associated with the convection.

MARINE

Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Fresh to strong (BF 5-6) northeasterly flow is expected through the next couple of days. A small craft advisory is in effect through mid- day Monday at this time, and may need to be extended a bit longer. By mid week, flow subsides and should be mainly moderate to fresh. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

No significant fire weather concerns are anticipated through the work week. Scattered showers and storms continue today, with lower chances mainly confined to the coast Monday. RH values will remain elevated through the week, above 40% each day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 72 86 72 89 / 40 20 10 10 Victoria 69 88 68 91 / 20 10 0 0 Laredo 71 86 69 90 / 30 10 10 0 Alice 70 86 68 89 / 30 10 10 0 Rockport 74 88 73 90 / 40 20 10 10 Cotulla 73 89 69 91 / 10 10 0 0 Kingsville 71 85 70 89 / 50 20 20 10 Navy Corpus 76 86 76 87 / 70 30 30 20

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ345-442-443- 447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ250-255-270- 275.