textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 504 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

- Cold front shower activity (30-40% chance) will graze the Victoria Crossroads tonight.

- Patchy fog develops across the Coastal Plains early Tuesday morning.

- A stronger cold front should push through by midweek, bringing noticeably cooler and drier conditions just in time for Thanksgiving.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1139 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

The approaching cold front is moving towards the Coastal Bend as we speak. Along this, CAMs are showing a line of thunderstorms developing alongside it with the tail end of activity near the Victoria Crossroads as it moves through that area tonight. CAMs have been consistent with keeping most activity outside of the CWA, only bringing weaker thunderstorms into Victoria County before clearing the area around early Tuesday morning. As this front approaches the coast, it will stall out. With this and weak winds at the surface, there is moderate chance of patchy fog developing throughout the Coastal Plains (30-50%). Confidence is not high for any dense fog products, but it'll be worth monitoring this afternoon and evening's model guidance for visibilities lower than a 1/2 mile.

A secondary cold front with more momentum than the initial front will allow the drier, cooler air to move through the CWA. It will be worth monitoring where the front stalls and the timing of the secondary front passage as this could have implications for Tuesday night's rain chances. South of the stalled front, a juicy boundary layer and warm temps will provide the instability for thunderstorm activity. The 12Z HRRR has this instability gradient setting up south of Falfurrias, while the 06Z RRFS has the stalled front further north into Kleberg County. Storms will have 40-60kt shear to work with, so don't quite discount tomorrow's threat, especially if the front stalls out further north. At most, these forecast storms have the potential for a quick downpour and gusty winds (generally under severe thresholds).

Once that secondary front moves through and ushers in drier air, we'll finally have the much awaited cool down with highs on Wednesday and Thanksgiving in the 70s across South Texas and morning lows on Thanksgiving morning in the upper 40s/low 50s. This is definitely a good time to take advantage of the cooler temps and open up the window to cool down the kitchen!

Next best chance for rainfall comes this weekend as a shortwave moves across the Great Plains on Saturday, but with the greatest chances for rainfall (<0.25" for a 24hr period) from the Victoria Crossroads and into southeast Texas (20-30% chance). Confidence right now for this system in terms of overall rainfall remains low. As more model guidance comes through, we'll have a better idea of how this next rain opportunity plays out.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 504 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

VFR conditions prevail across the region this evening with gusty southerly winds at our easternmost sites winding down over the next hour or so in the wake of a passing frontal boundary. Winds will gradually become generally light and variable overnight with a northerly component behind the front. Areas of BR/FG are expected to develop toward daybreak, mainly at ALI, CRP, and VCT, with lower probabilities for LRD. This will lead to periodic MVFR to localized IFR/LIFR CIGs and VSBYs in the 10-14Z window. Conditions will improve steadily through mid-morning Tuesday as drier air filters in, allowing CIGs to lift and VSBYs to return to VFR. Winds will remain light and northerly through the remainder of the period.

MARINE

Issued at 1139 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Low to medium (20-50%) rain chances return tonight through Wednesday. Moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) east- southeasterly winds, with occasional strong (BF 6) gusts will continue through this afternoon, resulting in Small Craft Advisories through 3 PM North of Port Aransas and through midnight S of Port Aransas. Winds will ease on Tuesday, becoming light to gentle (BF 2-3), before a stronger reinforcing front moves offshore midweek. Behind the front, winds will shift to the north- northeast and strengthen back to moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) with intermittent strong (BF 6) gusts. This pattern is expected to hold through Friday, after which onshore flow returns. Confidence decreases heading into next weekend, but increasing moisture associated with the renewed onshore flow and an approaching upper- level disturbance may bring the next chance for rain along with fresh to strong (BF 5-6) southeasterly winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1139 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

While minimum relative humidity values do briefly drop to the 25-35% range across the Brush Country Tuesday afternoon after a cold front passage, this will be short lived and the region overall remains above 30-40% min RH through the forecast period. While Tuesday afternoon will see drier air, Energy Release Components remain low (below the 35th percentile) through the upcoming week keeping the fire risk low.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 67 85 60 71 / 10 10 30 10 Victoria 62 85 52 72 / 40 0 10 0 Laredo 62 87 62 73 / 0 10 30 20 Alice 63 88 57 73 / 10 10 30 10 Rockport 70 84 60 73 / 20 10 20 10 Cotulla 56 86 56 73 / 0 0 10 0 Kingsville 65 87 60 71 / 10 10 30 10 Navy Corpus 72 82 64 71 / 10 10 30 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ231-232- 250-270.