textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 621 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

- Medium to high (50-70%) chances of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.

- Marginal risk of both severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall with storms Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

A cool but very shallow postfrontal airmass remains in place over South Texas today, with temperatures largely in the low to mid 70s early this afternoon, with any 80+ degree readings confined to the Rio Grande Plains. Generally low-medium (20-40%) rain chances will prevail through Friday morning as forcing for ascent remains limited to very low amplitude mid-lvl disturbances riding the frontal zone. Elevated convection progressing towards the area from the higher terrain of northeastern Mexico remains a peripheral threat, but right now the consensus is that this activity should weaken as it moves eastward into the more stable Rio Grande Plains.

The cool temperatures will be short-lived as the front lifts north through the area as a warm front tomorrow afternoon and highs will climb back into the 80s. Although some mid-lvl capping will likely limit convective potential during much of the day, an approaching shortwave will enable scattered storms developing along the higher terrain of the Sierra Madre Oriental and dryline to progress into portions of Texas late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. CAMs, per usual at these time horizons, depict a wide range of scenarios but the potential for initial discrete supercells and eventual upscale growth into an MCS Friday night will need to be monitored. Given steep mid-lvl lapse rates above the capping inversion and 50-60kts of bulk shear, large hail would likely be the primary convective threat. However, if the low-lvls can warm enough during the day Friday and the activity is able to congeal damaging winds would also be a threat. Precipitation amounts will be highly spatially variable based upon exact storm tracks but latest CAM ensemble PMMs would highlight the threat for 1.5 to 3 inch local bullseyes. The trajectory of the mid-lvl wave would focus the highest chances for these higher amounts over the northern half of the area.

Rain chances and cloud cover will wane Saturday afternoon in the wake of the mid-lvl wave, with dry and warm conditions expected on Sunday. A weak and mostly dry cold front will pass through the area on Monday dropping temperatures a few degrees back towards climo. Mid-lvl ridging then builds in for the mid-week period fostering generally dry conditions, with a slow warming trend expected as southerly flow returns Tuesday/Wednesday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions are draped across the region this evening. Overnight tonight and into Friday morning, expect CIGs to once again drop to low-end MVFR with intermittent periods of IFR and patchy fog. Isolated showers are already popping up across South Texas. Have kept mentions of precipitation at VCSH for the next several hours given the low coverage. However, more scattered activity is expected to begin later tonight and continue through the day tomorrow. Chances remain low (20-30%) of showers impacting the terminals, and the overall thunder risk remains low. Because of this, only mentions of VCSH and -SHRA are included at this time. Northeasterly winds this evening will trend light and variable overnight into Friday morning before turning more east- southeasterly by late Friday afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) northeasterly wind today will veer east-southeast and decrease into the gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) range on Friday. Light to gentle (BF 2-3) east-southeasterly winds will prevail through the weekend. Medium (30-50%) chances of showers and thunderstorms will persist through Saturday with the highest chances Friday night into Saturday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Relative humidity values will generally remain at or above 35% through the period although min RHs could briefly drop below 35% over the Rio Grande Plains on Sunday. This, combined with sustained 20 foot winds less than 20 mph and Energy Release Components (ERCs) below the 40th percentile will preclude fire weather concerns. Wetting rain chances will peak Friday into Saturday particularly across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. and persist through Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 71 83 74 86 / 40 50 50 40 Victoria 68 80 69 85 / 10 50 50 40 Laredo 71 86 72 89 / 20 20 70 30 Alice 70 85 72 88 / 20 30 50 30 Rockport 72 84 75 87 / 30 50 50 40 Cotulla 68 83 69 87 / 10 20 70 30 Kingsville 71 85 73 87 / 40 40 50 40 Navy Corpus 73 82 76 84 / 40 50 50 40

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.