textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 627 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- Widespread moderate to heavy rain through today, especially along the coast. Moderate risk of flash flooding.

- NHC indicating a medium chance (60%) of tropical development along the Texas coast with a disturbance moving off the Texas coast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 204 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

This forecast isn't getting any easier. Convection will increase through the overnight hours as a mid-level low and associated surface feature move east or northeast from northern Mexico into the Valley and South Texas. Area wide rainfall totals of around 1-2 inches occurred today with some locations seeing higher totals including over Nueces and San Patricio counties where estimates of 3-5 inches are noted. The daytime rain has primed a lot of the area for flooding with the additional convection expected overnight. With the low situated near Nuevo Laredo currently, the evolution tonight seems most likely to be a band of convection moving south to north through the Coastal Plains, with scattered shower/storms west of there. With sky high PWAT values (2.66 on evening sounding) very efficient rainfall processes will be in play and rainfall rates of 2- 4"/hour are still expected.

Beyond the overnight period, we have to figure out what this low is going to do as it starts moving eastward. Guidance is generally in agreement bringing it to around the coast and then northward, the question is, how close to the coast or will it move just out over the Gulf. This is critically important for a number of reasons. 1) East of the low center will stay in a very wet pattern, while the west side of the low center will dry out quickly as the low develops and is able to pull drier air down from the north. This could be the difference between half an inch of rain and 3 inches of rain, and right now it looks to set up right along the coast through Tuesday and into Wednesday. Current QPF expectations based on the current track would be for mainly less than an additional inch of rain for the Coastal Plans after Tuesday morning, and little if any additional convection west. Now for the other concern... 2) If the low moves off the coast, it could quickly develop tropical characteristics. The NHC may begin issues advisories as early as Tuesday if confidence is there that it would emerge into the Gulf. If that does develop, we could get some gusty winds along the coast for later Tuesday and Wednesday. Impacts would be short lived along our coast as the low moves north or northeastward into mid-week.

Once the mid-level low pulls off to the northeast, substantially drier deep layer air moves in and allows temperatures to warm to above normal levels on Thursday. Later in the week temperatures will drop back a few degrees and we can get some isolated convection back into the region.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Not much change to the forecast. Activity expected to eventually wind down toward the end of the TAF period. However, heavy rainfall remains in the cards today with mainly MVFR/VFR conditions. Lower confidence with IFR/LIFR conditions but is possible.

MARINE

Issued at 204 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) onshore flow will persist through the next couple of days before increasing to fresh and possibly strong (BF 5-6) by midweek. There is a medium chance (60%) for tropical development as a disturbance currently over northeastern Mexico moves out over the western Gulf sometime during the next 48 hours. This could produce stronger winds than currently forecast if it develops. Additionally, current seas of 3-4 feet will increase to 5- 9 feet in response to this possible tropical development. Expect widespread showers and storms through at least midweek.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 204 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low through the period due to increasing moisture, elevated relative humidity values, and increasing rain chances (moderate to high). Wet fuels and widespread cloud cover leading to cooler temps early next week should further limit fire weather potential.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 81 75 90 79 / 100 40 20 0 Victoria 82 73 89 77 / 90 40 30 10 Laredo 86 73 95 79 / 70 0 0 0 Alice 81 73 90 77 / 90 40 10 0 Rockport 86 78 92 83 / 100 60 30 10 Cotulla 86 73 94 78 / 70 0 0 0 Kingsville 80 73 90 78 / 90 40 10 0 Navy Corpus 84 79 90 83 / 100 50 20 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ229>234-239>247- 342>347-442-443-447.

GM...None.