textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 520 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

- Weak front moving through today resulting in clearing conditions today and tonight.

- Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook Saturday through Sunday.

- Minor coastal flooding and marine hazards possible through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1235 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

A surface cold front is forecast to move through South Texas today though this will simply be a slight wind shift and not so much a drop in temperatures. Ahead of this frontal passage, moisture convergence, combined with an upper-level disturbance moving across South Texas are leading to showers and storms as of this writing and continuing through sunrise. By this point, the wind shift associated with the front will start ushering in drier air with a thin line of weak showers possible along this wind shift. By in all, today is looking to be a seasonable day with mostly cloudy conditions in the morning and becoming more scattered/partly cloudy this afternoon and into tonight.

Meanwhile, a mid to upper-level low is digging into the northwestern Mexican states along with the subtropical jet streak positioning the right entrance region over much of South Texas Saturday afternoon and into Sunday. What is a tad bit different in this forecast compared to 24 hrs ago is that PWATs only rebound to 1.5-1.7" (according to the GEFS), and up to 1.9" per the ECMWF Ensemble. This, combined with differences in overall strength of the upper level low is leading to the spread in rainfall totals from Saturday through Monday, but the overall consensus is that 1-3 inches of rainfall amounts are forecast with the highest rainfall totals across the Brush Country and toward the Baffin Bay area. Locations east of the I-37 corridor will be on the lower end of the forecast rainfall amounts (as high as 1.5 inches, but generally under an inch for most locations). The general limiting factor for higher rainfall totals will be due to overall northeasterly flow (aiding in isentropic ascent, but more of a stabilizing force). With lower instability from this flow, the less likely that storms will be able to generate higher rainfall rates. Regardless, the WPC has placed all of South Texas under a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall (level 1 of 4). If there is an upside to this rainfall is that it will be spread out over roughly a 48 hr period, allowing our anomalously dry soils to soak in the rainfall. Chances for rain continue into Monday, but will be ending from west to east Monday night as the upper level low starts filling in and becomes more of a shortwave trough as it exits the Lone Star State, with a brief period of quieter skies, but the subtropical jet streak redevelops across the state from Wednesday, resulting in the return of 10-30% PoPs with a cold front once again forecast to move through on Thursday. While no significant drop in temperatures are in store, it will be enough to keep the dewpoint temperatures in the 50s and 60s.

Along the coastlines, confidence is growing in coastal flooding concerns during high tide cycles. Saturday's high tide cycles are forecasting water levels reaching near 2.0 ft above MSL , but Sunday and Monday's high tides are forecast to push closer to 2.5 ft above MSL thanks to the near-gale conditions pushing water toward the coastline and the arrival of the new moon phase, but forecast wave periods of 6-7 seconds will be the limiting factor to the runup on Gulf beaches. We're closely monitoring this risk along with the risk of near-gale conditions. We'll have the day shift look at this risk closer for any headline issuance.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 520 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

MVFR to VFR ceilings and visibility expected through the early morning hours, along with a few lingering showers (mainly ALI/CRP). Expect VFR conditions shortly by 14Z across South Texas as northerly winds bring drier air into the area.

MARINE

Issued at 1235 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Showers and thunderstorms from overnight continue to move offshore. By mid morning, winds become more northeasterly at a moderate strength (BF 4) and 2-3 ft seas. By Saturday afternoon, a secondary surge of stronger winds moves into the western Gulf with showers and storms coverage increasing. Near-gale conditions develop on Sunday with seas increasing to 7-10 ft with widespread showers continuing into Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1235 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

The fire risk will remain low through the forecast period due to minimum relative humidity values well above 30%. In addition, a medium to high chance for wetting rains can be expected across South Texas over the weekend and low chances for isolated showers on Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 81 65 80 66 / 20 0 10 30 Victoria 81 62 79 59 / 10 0 0 20 Laredo 80 65 76 64 / 20 10 40 90 Alice 80 63 79 63 / 20 0 20 40 Rockport 82 67 80 66 / 20 0 20 20 Cotulla 81 63 75 60 / 0 0 30 90 Kingsville 81 63 80 65 / 20 0 20 40 Navy Corpus 79 71 79 71 / 20 0 20 30

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.