textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 125 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

- Isolated/scattered morning showers ahead of dry-line today

- Cold front overnight bringing in drier/cooler Thursday

- Hot weekend before another seasonally strong cold front late Sunday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Isolated showers are forming ahead of the dry-line pushing through Hill Country. While the spatial coverage of these showers/thunderstorms are set to increase as they push east through South Texas (according to most CAMs), it'll primarily be the northern Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads that will see accumulations (though only a few hundredths are expected in isolated spots). That said, soundings show that whatever shower that moves through (convective in nature or not) has the the capability of mixing down areas of 40-50 mph gusts. This threat diminishes before most of everyone's morning commute. Then a dryline/pre-frontal boundary will push through the region, turning our winds to be more westerly at 10-15 mph. RH values briefly drop to 15-20% this afternoon, but the greatest threat for elevated fire conditions will remain across far South Texas. Winds will pick up overnight behind the cold front out of the north, but the airmass initially behind the front will see relatively higher dewpoint values before a drier surge of air ushers in after midnight. Rain chances along the cold front passage will be low (<15%).

Onshore winds return Friday, with a meager moisture return. This will allow temperatures to climb quickly to above normal values through Sunday with Sunday widespread upper 90s for highs on Sunday (it may actually justify Spring Break-ing on the beach, just remember your sunscreen!). That is before another seasonally-strong cold front moves through late Sunday. Temperatures behind the front will drop to below-normal values to start off the upcoming work week with possible return of 40 degree lows across northern zones and into the low 50s elsewhere Tuesday morning. There is still quite a bit of spread in low temperatures Tuesday morning (some upper 30s in the NBM 25th percentile for Victoria). This will continue to be refined with subsequent forecast runs.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 125 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

As a dryline boundary with showers and thunderstorms moves east, the stronger storms are forecast to remain generally from COT to VCT and northward with isolated storms across the remainder of S TX. Elevated scattered showers with an occasional lightning strike are already developing across the southern Brush Country and Coastal Bend and moving northward ahead of the dryline. S winds above the surface are around 50 knots creating low level wind shear. These showers may bring this stronger wind down to the surface at times through 09-11Z. As the front moves across the area, winds will relax both at the surface and aloft. Surface winds are forecast to shift to the west behind the bdry with gusts 20-25 knots. The cold front with another push of high pressure is expected by late afternoon/early evening and will shift winds north and strengthen further with gusts 30-35 knots. LLWS is expected this evening across LRD and COT, where surface winds are expected to decouple and decrease. Outside of showers and storms, MVFR conditions are expected, then becoming VFR behind the dryline.

MARINE

Issued at 125 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Winds calm below Small Craft Advisory criteria today, but with winds persisting from the south with 4-5 ft seas. Overnight, a cold front moves across the Middle Texas Coast and western Gulf with strong to near-gale (BF 6-7) northerly winds 7-10 ft seas by Thursday morning and rough bays. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be issued later today. By Thursday night, winds will be more northeasterly with winds reducing to light/gentle (BF 2-3) by Friday morning with 2-3 ft seas. Best chance for showers and thunderstorms will be today (30- 50% chance) though any shower or thunderstorm will be isolated to scattered in spatial coverage.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 125 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

This morning, remnants of overnight convection will weaken as they move east, bringing the best chances for a few hundredths of an inch of accumulation to the northern Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads, though accumulations will be isolated and sparse. Beyond this, a pre-frontal boundary will move through allowing winds to shift more W/NNW'ly, dropping RH values to as low as 15-20%. This evening, the actual cold front will start pushing through South Texas. While this normally would increase the fire risk, relatively higher dewpoint values will initially push through the area from central Texas along with a reduced fire risk for any areas that receive rainfall. Dewpoint values below 40 degrees won't filter in until after midnight. With RH's dropping to as low as 15-20% Thursday afternoon and possible gusty winds, Thursday may be the higher risk of the next two days, but still under critical fire conditions. Friday will see min RH values drop to as low as 20%, winds will be significantly calmer.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 89 54 72 49 / 30 0 0 0 Victoria 85 48 70 43 / 60 10 0 0 Laredo 92 58 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 91 53 74 46 / 20 0 0 0 Rockport 87 54 72 55 / 40 0 0 0 Cotulla 89 52 73 46 / 10 0 0 0 Kingsville 90 54 73 46 / 20 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 85 57 69 58 / 30 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ270-275.