textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 131 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

- Daily chances of rain leading to a quick downpour with strongest storms bringing rainfall in excess of 2 inches

- Rip current risk increasing this weekend along with increased chances of minor coastal flooding Friday/Saturday at high tide

- More widespread Moderate HeatRisk (level 2 of 4) from Sunday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 131 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

An upper-level low detaches from the jet stream today and traverses the Baja Peninsula, allowing for a jet streak to develop and orient an eastern Pacific moisture-axis into the Big Bend and the Rio Grande Plains. This will keep upper-levels moistened while allowing disturbances to move from the southwest into Texas. At the surface, high pressure dominates across much of the eastern CONUS. This brings a persistent easterly flow across much of the northern Gulf. Additionally, an open wave/inverted trough will meander in the central Gulf, keeping the moisture flow into South Texas plentiful. Due to the lack of any additional surface boundaries, much of the daily rain chances will be in the form of your typical popcorn storms, though the spatial coverage and intensity will be aided by upper-level dynamics in addition to boundary interactions. For this reason, CAM guidance paints a consistent picture of popcorn convection, but lacks the skill to correctly give a time frame and location of individual cells. WPC has portions of South Texas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) Thursday and Friday for the weak steering environment.

With respect to today's precipitation, an overnight complex of storms from south-central and southeastern Texas have brought an outflow of weaker showers and thunderstorms across the Victoria Crossroads and northern Coastal Bend. These will continue to move southwest across the region and continue to weaken through sunrise. It is then daytime heating gets the atmosphere mixing with 2.00- 2.25" PWATs along the coastal counties and down to 1.75" in the Brush Country. This will allow for quick accumulations of 1-1.5 inches for locations that see storm activity but rainfall rates could surpass 2"/hr with isolated rainfall totals exceeding 2 inches in the strongest storms. This will need to be monitored for any advisories/warnings for flooding. Otherwise, most storms beyond 5 PM look to be on the weakening trend as daytime heating ceases. Worth monitoring will be the thunderstorm activity off the mountains of northern Mexico as these may bring increased rain chances for the Laredo area though confidence amongst CAMs for this mountain thunderstorm activity is low given the disagreement of any convective initiation.

The pressure gradient between the ECONUS high pressure and surface inverted trough across the Gulf will keep a persistent but strong easterly breeze across Gulf-facing beaches across the northern Gulf resulting in surface wind that will increase the rip current risk late Thursday and into the weekend. Additionally, latest tidal forecasts are calling for locations like Bob Hall Pier/Port Aransas to see water-levels possibly reach 1.5 ft above MSL at the high tide cycles Friday/Saturday. Swell period will increase to 7-9 seconds across the Middle Texas Coast by Friday/Saturday. This combined wave energy/tidal forecasts could lead minor coastal flooding this weekend, but with lack of buoy data, this will be hard to monitor with pure instruments.

These daily rain chances will keep high temperatures through the weekend. On Sunday, the cutoff low will fill as it gets replaced by a deeper trough off the US West Coast. This will dial down the subtropical jet and also dial back overall rain chances. As a result, the longterm forecast calls for the return of widespread 90s by the upcoming week and the return of more widespread Moderate Heat Risk (level 2 of 4). And we can't forget about daily threats of fog through the weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 131 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Showers and thunderstorms currently moving southwest across S TX are showing signs of weakening. The activity is expected to continue to diminish over the next 2-4 hours, but isolated -SHRAs will remain possible overnight, then increase in coverage once again Wednesday morning. The highest chance of showers and thunderstorms will be across the VCT, ALI and CRP TAF sites, and COT to a lesser extent, throughout the day Wednesday. Low rain chances exist across LRD, but too low to mention in the TAF at this time. Outside of the convection, MVFR conditions are expected overnight, becoming VFR Wednesday morning. However, due to the scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRAs, conditions can quickly deteriorate to MVFR/IFR. Winds will generally be light and variable, but stronger and gusty in and around storms.

MARINE

Issued at 131 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

An easterly gentle breeze this morning gives way to more moderate breezes this afternoon with 2-3 ft seas. Winds become more southeasterly by Friday with seas increasing to 3-5 ft. Expect daily rain chances closest to the barrier islands through the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 131 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

With the recent rains, the green-up, and minimum relative humidity values remaining above 45% through the next 7 days, the fire risk is low. Daily rain chances will continue to bring low-moderate chances (20-40%) for a wetting rain in the stronger storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 86 76 87 76 / 60 20 40 10 Victoria 87 71 86 72 / 70 30 60 10 Laredo 91 74 91 74 / 20 20 20 50 Alice 87 73 87 73 / 70 20 40 0 Rockport 89 78 89 79 / 50 30 30 10 Cotulla 90 73 90 74 / 30 20 20 40 Kingsville 86 74 86 74 / 70 20 30 0 Navy Corpus 86 79 86 79 / 50 20 30 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.