textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 143 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

- Moderate heat risk Wednesday. Practice heat safety, for more information: weather.gov/heat

- Cold front Thursday will bring low to medium rain chances (20-40%) heading into the weekend

- Unsettled weather pattern continues into early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 143 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

The rest of today through Wednesday will be controlled by a mid- level ridge centered over the Bay of Campeche. High temperatures approaching 100 degrees over the Rio Grande Plains as clouds clear through the day, causing heat indices of 100-110, especially over the southern Coastal Plains.

Our next cold front remains on track to pass through Thursday (NAM fastest), leading to low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances through at least Friday. Although the NAM comes in much colder for Thursday, we'll be going with the majority of the consensus for temperatures Thursday and Friday with highs from the mid 70s to mid 80s, along with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Latest guidance shows additional opportunities for potential rain chances this weekend with a rather deep mid-level trough over West Texas moving eastward across south-central Texas Saturday. I wouldn't be surprised if additional rain chances are needed for this weekend in the near future. Looking at rainfall totals through Sunday: ECMWF ensemble mean is between 0.50-1.50", GFS ensemble is between 0.50-0.75", and CMC ensemble mean is between 0.50-1.25". So there is a good chance of at least 0.50" but how beneficial that'll make to our watershed is more uncertain.

A deep trough over the Midwest looks to push another cold front into South Texas early next week, returning low rain chances and additional cloud cover and cooler temperatures. So far, this front does not appear to be as strong as the one expected later this week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 143 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Majority of South Texas currently prevails under VFR conditions while portions of the Victoria Crossroads lingers under MVFR ceilings. Ceilings will drop to MVFR widespread tonight through the early morning hours, occasionally dropping to IFR over the Coastal Plains as the LLJ strengthens to around 30 knots. Very low- level saturation could lead to drizzle and mist during the morning hours over VCT/ALI.

MARINE

Issued at 143 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) southeast breeze will continue tonight. A gentle to moderate southeasterly breeze will then dominate Wednesday through Wednesday night, before shifting northeasterly becoming moderate behind a cold front Thursday. Northeasterly flow shifts back southeasterly and weakens this weekend. Low to medium (20-45%) shower and thunderstorm chances will persist Thursday through at least Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 76 89 74 81 / 0 0 0 30 Victoria 73 88 68 77 / 0 20 10 40 Laredo 77 99 76 85 / 0 0 10 30 Alice 75 95 72 82 / 0 0 0 40 Rockport 76 86 72 81 / 0 0 0 30 Cotulla 76 94 70 79 / 0 0 20 30 Kingsville 76 94 74 83 / 0 0 0 30 Navy Corpus 77 85 75 81 / 0 0 0 30

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ231-232-250.