textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

- Isolated showers this afternoon across the Brush Country and again near Baffin Bay Sunday morning.

- Moderate rain chances (40-60%) Monday night through Tuesday; higher rainfall amounts along the coastline.

- Coastal flooding likelihood increasing during high tide cycles from Monday through at least mid-week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Upper-level high pressure will continue to slowly slide toward the ECONUS through mid-week. This places much of Texas under a SW'ly flow aloft. Meanwhile, an upper-level low across the Desert Southwest will slowly lift to the NE, with its forward momentum slowed down by its interaction with a secondary trough across the Pacific Northwest. Having this slowdown will allow shortwave disturbances to pivot around the aforementioned low as it enters the Great Basin, and southwesterly flow will allow upper-level energy and Pacific moisture from Hurricane Vance (eastern Pacific basin) to advect into the region at the same time. All that to say, rain chances return to South Texas!

Sunday night, PWATs will briefly bottom out to 1.0-1.2" but Monday afternoon is when the PWAT values start climbing back up. Global ensembles are maxing out values Tuesday at 1.7-1.9", but it's not out of the realm of possibility to see even higher PWAT values given the influence from Vance. All this to say, starting Monday night, we're in for a wetter period. Should the trend of PWATs trend wetter, it is possible we see accumulations reach 1-2 inches in the strongest showers/storms, but the general consensus will be near half-inch amounts. Anyone outdoors on Tuesday may need to reconsider events or move activities indoors.

This will also keep temperatures cooler than what NBM guidance is suggesting (ended up knocking the temperatures down given the rain/widespread cloud cover Tuesday). We remain in the 80s for highs throughout the forecast period.

If that wasn't enough, we're closely monitoring the guidance for coastal flooding concerns. With the proximity of the full moon and an increase in wave periods, water levels are forecast to approach 1.7 to 2.0 ft above MSL for the high tide cycles from Monday through at least mid-week. With high tide in that period occurring daylight/evening, an advisory will likely be needed.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Isolated showers continue to move through the Brush Country through this evening. A brief drop to MVFR can be expected underneath a shower, otherwise, expect mostly VFR conditions. ESE'ly winds at 15-20 kts gusting to 25 kts will decrease after 02Z and increasing back to 10-15 kt from the SE after 12Z.

MARINE

Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Expect mostly moderate E/SE winds (BF 4), increasing to fresh breezes in the afternoons. Seas will be 3-4 ft through Monday afternoon, before increasing to 5-6 ft Monday night and decreasing back to near 4 ft by Tuesday night. Rain chances will increase to 40-60% Monday and Tuesday across the Gulf waters.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

With forecast minimum relative humidity values remaining above 30% and weak winds will limit the overall fire risk. Additionally, rain chances increase to 30 to 60 percent across the Brush Country on Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 71 83 67 81 / 10 10 10 30 Victoria 63 83 61 82 / 0 0 0 20 Laredo 71 86 68 87 / 10 10 0 0 Alice 67 83 64 84 / 10 10 10 20 Rockport 72 82 69 82 / 0 10 10 30 Cotulla 68 84 64 85 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 69 83 65 84 / 10 20 10 20 Navy Corpus 75 81 73 80 / 10 10 20 40

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.