textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 131 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

- Medium rain chances Friday into the weekend, with isolated pockets of heavy rainfall and high rainfall accumulations

- Moderate risk of heat-related impacts continue, with peak heat indices between 103-108 degrees.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 131 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

A plume of moisture is moving into the area this afternoon. PWAT values are climbing toward 2 inches along the Middle Texas Coast and will continue to rise into Friday and Saturday. Most convection today has been confined to marine areas and think sea breeze will be relatively quiet today, though an isolated shower or storm can't be ruled out. Late tonight and through Friday morning is when we'll notice the increase in rain chances especially for the Coastal Plains, with sea breeze aided convection farther west in the afternoon. With a mid-level disturbance in the area should be able to realize a 50-60 PoP for the daytime Friday for most of the area. While area average rainfall will likely be under an inch, the high level of deep moisture would support isolated higher amounts, possibly in the area of 2-3 inches. We have dried out pretty well from the rains last month, so flooding concerns are minimal. Rain chances continue into Saturday, but with loss of mid-level support and a building ridge, coverage is expected to be lower.

By Sunday into early next week a very anomalous ridge (nearly 600 dam!) will set up over the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest with a number of easterly convectively-enhanced disturbances pivoting westward towards Texas along its southern periphery. These disturbances will likely track along an 850-700mb boundary/convergence zone, creating a zone of active weather Monday through the middle of next week somewhere along the western Gulf. Guidance is not in good agreement on whether this boundary sets up north of the area or over portions of the area so will leave scattered PoPs for now, but it is something to watch as somewhere in the TX/Western LA range will likely see heavy rainfall and training of storms.

Temperatures will remain near normal through the period, with some increase in heat indices heading into the weekend as dewpoints creep up with the moisture surge.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 131 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Minimal convection expected during the day with the sea breeze today, so have not mentioned in any TAF site at this time. VCT terminal though will have a low chance. Moisture increases into the area tonight and rain chances increase for the daytime tomorrow. Have mentioned VCSH for now for eastern sites, but will likely add TS mention in with later TAF packages when timing becomes more clear. Weak to moderate southeasterly wind and mainly VFR conditions are expected outside of showers/storms.

MARINE

Issued at 131 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Mainly moderate south-southeasterly winds (BF 3-4) will persist through much of the period with somewhat lighter winds in the mornings next week. Some isolated storms can be expected today with scattered storms expected tonight through Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 78 90 80 91 / 20 50 20 30 Victoria 77 93 78 94 / 10 50 20 40 Laredo 77 96 78 98 / 10 20 10 30 Alice 75 92 77 93 / 10 60 20 40 Rockport 81 91 83 91 / 40 70 30 40 Cotulla 76 94 77 96 / 10 30 20 40 Kingsville 76 90 78 91 / 20 60 20 30 Navy Corpus 81 89 83 90 / 30 60 30 30

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.