textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 607 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

- Moderate to Major risk of heat-related impacts each afternoon with increased Extreme risk this weekend

- Low chances (10-20%) through the weekend. Greater chances (20-45%) Wednesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 108 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Like a broken record player... the tune of hot and low chances of showers continue through the forecast period. Wednesday and Thursday still like the days with the greatest chances for showers and thunderstorms along the coastal plains thanks to an inverted mid- level trough moving through and with tropical-moisture advecting westward across the Gulf of Mexico. With PWATs in the coastal plains forecast to increase to 2.00-2.25" (near the 90th percentile) and the added ascent from the mid-level trough, any shower that develops can quickly drop 0.5 inch. In the strongest storm, isolated 1-2 inch accumulations can't be ruled out, but these higher amounts will likely fall around the Matagorda Bay area. Further inland and into the Brush Country, rain chances will still primarily be seabreeze driven combined with any outflow interactions from storms along the coastal plains, and thus more likely Wednesday and Thursday afternoons.

While the daily chances for showers has been so desperately needed to slow down the spread of drought, unfortunately it comes at the expense of daily hot temperatures, still ranging 5-10F above normal values for afternoon highs. We'll keep the Moderate to Major HeatRisk through Friday, with Extreme risk out in the Brush Country. But come this weekend, we are forecast to see a bigger expansion of this Extreme risk across South Texas. While the increased rain chances Wednesday and Thursday may keep the Heat Advisory issuance at bay for now, a drier trend may prompt the need for heat headlines in the latter-half of the week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

A few showers and thunderstorms continue along the sea breeze as it moves west into the Rio Grande Plains. Have included a PROB30 group to address the potential that this convection could reach LRD and COT before 02Z. Another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop early Wednesday morning along the coast and move inland through the day. Have included PROB30 groups to address the convection with timing based on expected location of the sea breeze through Wednesday afternoon. Outside of the convection, generally VFR conditions can be expected with brief MVFR conditions Wednesday morning from ALI to VCT due to patchy fog and/or low CIGs.

MARINE

Issued at 108 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Light south to southeast flow during the morning hours, will increase to gentle to moderate flow in the afternoon and evening hours through Thursday. Flow increases to a gentle to moderate with occasionally fresh this upcoming weekend. Seas will continue to generally range from 2-3 feet, increasing a foot this weekend. There will be low to medium rain chances daily.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 79 95 78 96 / 10 30 10 20 Victoria 77 100 76 99 / 20 60 20 40 Laredo 79 103 78 103 / 0 10 10 10 Alice 76 100 75 101 / 10 20 10 20 Rockport 81 93 80 93 / 30 50 20 30 Cotulla 77 102 77 101 / 0 10 0 10 Kingsville 77 98 76 99 / 10 30 10 20 Navy Corpus 82 91 81 91 / 20 30 10 20

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.