textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 501 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

- Low chance (20-40%) of patchy fog across the Coastal Bend through Wednesday morning.

- Above normal temperatures will continue through this week.

- Low rain chances tomorrow into tomorrow night, increasing to medium rain chances (40-60%) this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1239 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

We have a couple items to cover before we get into the meat of this forecast. As was seen this morning along the Coastal Bend, light patchy fog will be possible late tonight and early tomorrow morning. Unseasonably warm and humid conditions will also persist through at least Friday as persistent onshore flow continues to transport Gulf moisture inland, resulting in above-normal highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.

Now, we'll get into what everyone is wondering about -- rain! Tomorrow into tomorrow night, a mid- to upper-level low over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to shift southeastward, and weak embedded shortwave disturbances associated with the propagation of that low will interact will a modest moisture profile. This will introduce a low (<20%) chance for isolated showers across South Texas. However, the best potential will remain to the north of the region.

The main precipitation opportunity is expected this weekend as that approaching low and several shortwave impulses track across the region. A strengthening LLJ of 30-40 knots will advect deeper moisture inland, with PWATs rising to approximately 1.5-1.7 inches, near the 99th to max climatological percentiles for this time of year. Increasing low-level convergence along an associated surface trough, upper-level diffluence, and a gradually unstable airmass will promote the development of showers and thunderstorms. However, some uncertainties remain, specifically in the timing and strength of the shortwave disturbances coinciding with the best moisture and instability, as well as the influence of any atmospheric capping.

While a cold front is expected to advance into Central Texas by Sunday, it is unlikely that will fully push through to provide much in the way of post-frontal cooling. Temperatures may trend ever so slightly lower over the weekend due to increased cloud cover and rainfall, but we will still remain above seasonal normals. Rain chances may linger across the area early next week as the upper low is slow to depart the region.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 501 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

No significant changes to the TAF forecast. VFR conditions will deteriorate overnight once again to MVFR across much of South Texas, with IFR CIGs expected to impact ALI/CRP/VCT. MVFR CIGs will linger through the morning, diminishing by early afternoon tomorrow.

Breezy south-southeasterly winds around 15-20 knots with gusts 20-30 knots this afternoon will be elevated overnight generally between 10-15 knots. These winds will be strong enough to keep dense fog from developing over our far inland sites. However, guidance is still hinting at brief drops in VSBY shortly after sunrise tomorrow morning for CRP/VCT. At this time, not anticipating VSBYs lower than 4-5 SM.

MARINE

Issued at 1239 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

A generally moderate (BF 4) southeasterly breeze is expected to persist through Thursday, becoming moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) by Thursday night. Isolated showers will be possible (<20% chance) Friday across area waters. However, precipitation chances increase over the weekend to a medium chance (30-50%).

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1239 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Southeasterly flow will maintain elevated relative humidity (RH) across South Texas for the next several days. However, fuels remain cured, with Energy Release Components (ERCs) in the 50th-69th percentile. Thus, elevated fire weather conditions are possible, mainly Thursday and Friday across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country. This is due to expected minimum RH values dropping to range between 25-30% and southeast winds gusting to 25 mph in response to a dry line to the west. Chances for precipitation will generally remain low (<20%) through Friday, but will increase to a medium (40- 60%) chance over the weekend with a passing mid- to upper-level disturbance.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 70 82 69 82 / 10 10 10 0 Victoria 66 83 66 83 / 0 10 10 0 Laredo 70 92 71 92 / 0 10 10 0 Alice 68 87 68 88 / 10 10 10 0 Rockport 69 80 69 80 / 10 10 10 0 Cotulla 69 91 69 92 / 0 20 20 10 Kingsville 68 87 68 87 / 10 10 10 0 Navy Corpus 70 77 70 77 / 10 10 10 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.