textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 636 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

- Moderate to Extreme risk of heat-related impacts across a large portion of South Texas today through the weekend.

- Heat Advisory in effect from Noon to 7 PM today.

- Low rain chances today and Saturday, then increasing Sunday to a medium chance across the Victoria Crossroads.

- Elevated Fire Weather conditions today and remains possible through Monday, mainly across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 132 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

A low (15-20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms are expected today, mainly the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. Less moisture and mid level ridging across the Mexico and along the Rio Grande will limit convection today. The ridge is progged to shift farther east Saturday leading to very low rain chances. Rain chances increase Sunday in response to the ridge being nudged northward as an inverted trough shifts west across S TX. This will allow for deeper moisture to interact with the sea breeze. The best chance will be across the Victoria Crossroads where deeper moisture will reside. Isolated sea breeze convection is expected early next week with the potential for increased activity by mid week.

An Extreme risk of heat related impacts are forecast across most of S TX today through the weekend. Heat indices up to 110-114 are expected across a majority of S TX this afternoon lasting 4-6 hours. Therefore, a Heat Advisory has been issued for S TX from Noon to 7 PM. Heat Advisory conditions are expected again Saturday and possibly Sunday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail across South Texas as convection this morning remains well off east of Matagorda Bay. Therefore, have removed PROB30 mentions at VCT, but will need to continue to monitor for any seabreeze activity this afternoon. Southeasterly winds will be stronger today, becoming sustained 15-20 knots with gusts around 25 knots at CRP/ALI. Winds weaken overnight but will remain around 10 knots, reducing any fog development.

MARINE

Issued at 132 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

A moderate (BF 4) onshore flow is expected today across most of the Middle Texas Coastal waters, while a fresh (BF 5) breeze is expected south of Port Aransas across Corpus Christi and Baffin Bays and out to 20 nautical miles this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the bays and nearshore waters south of Port Aransas through this evening. This trend is expected to continue through the weekend into early next week. Seas will increase to 2-4 feet this weekend. There is a 15-35% chance of showers and thunderstorms today and again Sunday. Otherwise, low rain chances can be expected most days.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 132 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Slightly lower minimum relative humidity values are expected across the Brush Country this afternoon. However, wind speeds do not increase until this evening when RH values increase. However, due to the dryness and the ERC at 75-90% percentile, a Fire Danger Statement has been issued for this afternoon. Similar conditions are expected Saturday. Slightly higher min RH values will return by Sunday. The chance of wetting rains increases on Sunday, with up to a 50% chance across the Victoria Crossroads. Otherwise, rain chances will be low most days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 98 79 97 79 / 10 0 0 0 Victoria 98 77 99 76 / 20 10 0 0 Laredo 105 79 105 77 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 103 76 102 75 / 10 0 0 0 Rockport 93 81 94 82 / 10 10 0 0 Cotulla 104 78 104 77 / 0 10 0 0 Kingsville 101 77 100 77 / 10 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 91 83 92 82 / 10 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ230>234-240>244-246-247-342>344.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ231-232-250.