textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1251 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

- Low chance (20-40%) of patchy fog across the Coastal Bend through Thursday morning.

- Above normal temperatures will continue through this week.

- Low rain chances to, increasing to medium to high rain chances (40-80%) this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1251 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

A low chance for some light, patchy fog will once again be possible late tonight into early Thursday morning, mainly near the coast, as continued onshore flow maintains a shallow, humid marine layer. Winds should remain elevated overnight to prevent much in the way of any dense fog. Outside of the brief fog potential, unseasonably warm and humid conditions will persist for the foreseeable future due to that southeasterly flow transporting Gulf moisture inland. This will keep highs generally in the 80s to low 90s and overnight lows in the 60s to low 70s.

A passing mid-level disturbance across the Central Plains will spin off a few weak embedded shortwaves today, which may interact with sufficient moisture (PWATS just shy of 1.3 inches per the 18Z CRP sounding) to generate isolated showers across the region. As of writing, a few showers have propagated across portions of the Crossroads. However, the better coverage will remain to our north.

The more meaningful rain potential arrives Friday into the weekend as a broader mid- to upper-level trough propagates southeast from the Pacific Northwest and several shortwave impulses progress across Texas. Prior to the system's arrival, a 30-40 knot LLJ will continue to funnel in deeper moisture and raise PWATs to around 1.5-1.8 inches. That would put us near the upper end of climatology for this time of year. This moisture pooling in addition to the series of shortwaves and favorable upper jet dynamics will allow for prime conditions for shower and thunderstorm development this weekend.

The associated cold front with this system is expected to dig southeastward into the region but will likely weaken and stall, limiting any meaningful relief for us from above average temperatures. Temperatures may ease ever so slightly this weekend as cloud cover and precipitation increase, but we will still remain above seasonal normals. The cutoff low from this system will track across the region from the Baja Peninsula early next week, allowing for rain chances to persist as additional mid-level impulses rotate across.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1117 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Mainly VFR conditions at this time, with MVFR CIGs lingering across COT/VCT for the next hour or so. Breezy southeasterly winds are expected through the afternoon. Sustained winds will be around 20 knots with frequent gusts reaching 25-30 knots. Winds will relax slightly but remain elevated tonight with another round of MVFR/IFR CIGs through the mid-to-late morning hours on Thursday.

MARINE

Issued at 1251 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

A generally moderate (BF 4) southeasterly breeze will persist through Thursday, before increasing to moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) by Thursday night. Higher gusts across the bays and waterways between Port Aransas and Baffin Bay today have lead to the continuation of a Small Craft Advisory through 6 PM this evening. There is a low (<20%) chance of showers across the waters through Friday, increasing to a medium (30-50%) chance over the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1251 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Southeasterly flow will maintain elevated relative humidity (RH) across South Texas for the next several days. However, fuels remain cured, with Energy Release Components (ERCs) in the 50th-69th percentile. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, mainly Thursday and Friday across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country as minimum RH values drop to range between 25-30% and southeast winds gust to 25 mph in response to a dry line to the west. Chances for precipitation will generally remain low (approximately 20%) through Friday, but will increase to a medium to high (40-80%) chance over the weekend with a passing mid- to upper-level disturbance.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 70 82 70 83 / 10 0 10 20 Victoria 66 83 67 83 / 0 0 10 20 Laredo 71 92 70 94 / 10 10 10 10 Alice 68 87 68 90 / 10 10 10 20 Rockport 69 81 70 81 / 10 0 10 20 Cotulla 69 91 69 91 / 10 10 20 30 Kingsville 68 86 68 88 / 10 0 10 20 Navy Corpus 69 77 70 78 / 10 0 10 20

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ231-232- 250.