textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1137 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

- Medium to high rain chances (50-90%) this weekend. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall is in place for most of South Texas today, with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for the northern Brush Country into the Victoria Crossroads.

- A Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather is in place for Saturday over the northern portion of the area, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 2) for the remainder of South Texas. The main hazards will be large hail to very large hail possible and damaging winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1137 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

A few showers will develop this morning with deep moisture in place. A cold front will continue to move toward South Texas today, pushing under the warm, unstable, moist airmass today. This will lead to convection this afternoon and tonight. Very steep lapse rates will lead to the potential for large to very large hail over the Brush Country. Currently, the Storm Prediction Center has the majority of South Texas in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather and has indicated a 10% or greater probability of two inch or larger diameter hail. We urge all residents and visitors to the area to monitor their weather. Please ensure you have multiple ways to receive warnings as storms today could be dangerous.

On top of severe weather, we are under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall today and Sunday, with the northern Brush Country under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4). We will be monitoring these storms for high rainfall rates which could lead to flash flooding, especially if it falls over compacted soils or in urban areas today and tonight. The rain chances will persist through Saturday night and into Sunday as the cold front stalls across South Texas, leading to more beneficial rain. Low rain chances will continue through early next week, increasing again by the middle of the week as another cold front moves across the area.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Gusty southeast winds continue, but should decrease slightly through 07-09Z. Winds will not be as strong Saturday as a cold front approaches the region, allowing the pressure gradient to relax. The main concern will be the potential for severe storms with heavy rainfall by the afternoon into Sunday morning. Have gone with prevailing -shra for COT and LRD beginning in the early afternoon. The front and associated storms are expected to shift east and reach the eastern TAF sites by mid to late afternoon. High rain chances continue through Sunday morning. For now, there is no severe elements in the TAFs, but may need to add them with later updates. Otherwise, A mix of MVFR/IFR CIGs can be expected through Sunday morning. A mix of IFR and VFR conditions expected as the convection moves across S TX.

MARINE

Issued at 1137 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Moderate (BF 4) southeasterly flow is expected today. Winds will diminish to a gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) Sunday night through early next week. Winds will increase once again to a moderate to fresh breeze (BF 4-5) Tuesday ahead of another cold front. A medium to high (40-70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and tonight and continue through Sunday before decreasing to a low (<25%) chance Sunday night and persisting through early next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1137 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Rain chances will increase to medium to high (50-90%) today as a cold front moves into the area. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, especially over the Brush Country. With expected rainfall, increased moisture, and a decrease in the winds, elevated fire weather conditions are not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 71 84 66 79 / 10 20 70 70 Victoria 69 84 61 78 / 10 40 90 70 Laredo 72 94 64 74 / 10 20 90 90 Alice 69 89 65 81 / 10 20 80 80 Rockport 70 81 66 79 / 10 20 70 70 Cotulla 71 89 62 74 / 10 60 90 80 Kingsville 70 89 66 81 / 10 20 70 80 Navy Corpus 71 78 68 76 / 10 20 70 80

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.