textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 230 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

- Potential for elevated fire weather conditions over the Brush Country and inland Coastal Plains daily through next Thursday

- Low chance of fog over the Coastal Plains during the early morning hours

- Dry and abnormally warm weather continues through next work week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Ridging will remain the controlling and dominant factor to our weather next week. Atmospheric moisture will remain near or below moisture with only a weak mid-level low over the SW Gulf intruding into the ridge early to mid next week. Model consensus is strong and tightly packed for temperatures through next Friday, with highs from around 80 along the coast to the mid and upper 90s out west. Lows will remain in the low to mid 60s.

Other than a low (20-40%) chance of fog during the early morning hours over the inland Coastal Plains, elevated fire weather conditions will be our main concern. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect this afternoon and evening for Jim Wells to Live Oak counties westward. For more on fire weather, see the discussion below.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected overnight with some patchy shallow fog possible across the Coastal Plains to Victoria Crossroads where MVFR VSBYs have been included in TAFs for VCT/ALI developing between 10-14Z, but is generally not expected to last that entire period. Tomorrow afternoon, gusty southeasterly winds up to around 25-30 knots can be expected with elevated sustained winds extending into the overnight hours for tomorrow night.

MARINE

Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

A moderate (BF 4) south to southeasterly breeze will occasionally strengthen to a fresh breeze (BF 5) over the bays and nearshore waters south of Port Aransas this weekend. A gentle to moderate flow (BF 3-4) will then return Monday and continue through next week, occasionally strengthening to fresh in the afternoon and evening hours south of Port Aransas. No rain chances are expected at this time with seas between 2-4 feet.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Persistent ridging will keep abnormally warm conditions across South Texas through next week. Relative humidity will consistently drop to 20-30% over the Brush Country each afternoon, with energy release components in the 70-90th percentiles and dry to critically dry fuels. The winds will be the most determining factor to fire conditions. Winds overall have been underestimated lately, with the seabreeze eventually making it out over the Brush Country late in the afternoon into evening hours providing a large enough time window where elevated fire conditions likely exists along stronger wind gusts. Therefore, a Fire Danger Statement has been issued for Jim Wells to Live Oak westward this afternoon and evening. Specifically today and Sunday, relative humidity may drop into the teens to further support a need for a mention. Similar conditions are expected through next week with min relative humidity just a touch higher.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 86 63 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 86 60 86 59 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 97 62 96 63 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 96 60 95 60 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 80 65 80 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 99 59 98 59 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 92 60 91 61 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 78 66 79 66 / 0 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.