textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

- Marginal risk of flash flooding continues through this weekend, slight on Saturday over the southern Coastal Bend

- Weak cold front pushes through late tonight into Saturday morning

- Medium to high rain chances this weekend, lower Monday, becoming rain-free Tuesday

- Monitoring minor coastal flooding through this weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 150 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

A positive vorticity axis earlier over the Coastal Plains will move inland into the Hill Country through this afternoon and tonight; focusing convection / rain chances north of our CWA, leading to a lull in our rain chances. The weak cold front will finally push through late tonight into Saturday morning.

A surface low will likely develop south over the western Gulf, but how far south will greatly determine our rain chances through the weekend, lowering my confidence on the future rain coverage. Recent guidance has trended to a farther southward progression of the surface low, decreasing rain chances. Nonetheless, overrunning of showers and thunderstorms along with low-level moisture convergence, will lead to a medium to high chance of showers over South Texas. Greatest chances and coverage is expected over the Coastal Bend through Sunday, due to greater convergence and proximity to the low.

The low washes out as we get a second push of northerly winds Monday, lowering PWATs and rain chances. Moisture falls well below normal (PWATs around 1.5") Tuesday through Thursday due to offshore mid-level flow, leading to rain-free conditions.

Lastly, due to the persistent northeasterly flow enhancing the Ekman transport mechanism and increasing 7-8 second swell periods, minor coastal flooding is worth monitoring this weekend, especially during high tide at night into the early morning hours.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Another round of showers and storms working inland this afternoon, this time associated with the sea breeze. This convection will be near ALI for the next couple hours and could still impact LRD/COT later tonight. Tomorrow morning looks mainly dry across the area with additional convection moving into the eastern sites in the afternoon. MVFR CIGS will be common through tomorrow morning, with continued broken cloud levels in the afternoon, but expected to increase above 3k.

MARINE

Issued at 150 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Gentle to moderate northeasterly flow will strengthen to fresh to strong Sunday to Tuesday morning, leading to occasional Small Craft Advisory conditions. Moderate to fresh northeasterly flow will return through the latter half of next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through Tuesday, then low rain chances latter half of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 150 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

No significant fire weather concerns are anticipated through next work week. Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected through the weekend with lower chances continuing into Monday then becoming rain-free starting Tuesday. RH values will remain elevated above 30% each day with highs struggling to reach the 90s.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 74 89 74 85 / 40 70 60 80 Victoria 71 90 71 86 / 30 50 50 60 Laredo 72 87 71 85 / 80 50 60 40 Alice 71 88 71 85 / 60 60 60 70 Rockport 75 90 74 87 / 30 60 60 80 Cotulla 71 86 72 86 / 80 40 30 30 Kingsville 73 89 72 85 / 50 70 70 80 Navy Corpus 79 88 77 85 / 50 70 80 80

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>234-239>244.

GM...None.