textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 507 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

- Medium to high chance for showers/thunderstorms this weekend ahead of a cold front Monday morning.

- A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall and severe thunderstorms exists Sunday into early Monday.

- Minor coastal flooding and an increased risk of rip currents Sunday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Pleasant weather conditions will prevail across South Texas today, with mostly clear skies and light winds expected through much of the afternoon. Onshore flow will gradually return as winds shift toward the east, allowing temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 70s across the Coastal Bend and surrounding areas.

A mid-level low is expected to approach the region Saturday morning, bringing increased cloud cover and a low to moderate (20-40%) chance for isolated to scattered showers. Activity will generally progress from west to east, with localized higher precipitation expected across the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads as the disturbance moves eastward. Following the passage of this disturbance, an approaching upper-level trough will support the progression of a cold front toward South Texas.

Ahead of the front, a southeasterly to easterly flow will allow for additional moisture to progress into the region, supporting greater rain chances. GEFS guidance suggests PWAT values increasing to around 1.5-1.6", slightly above the 75th percentile. Rain chances are expected to increase compared to Saturday to around (50-90%), with scattered showers becoming more likely across the Coastal Plains, particularly the Victoria Crossroads.

Both WPC and SPC have placed portions of South Texas under a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall (Level 1 of 4) and severe thunderstorms (Level 1 of 5), respectively, for the period from 12Z Sunday through 12Z Monday. The WPC Marginal Risk includes eastern portions of the CWA, including the Victoria Crossroads, where locally heavy rainfall could lead to isolated instances of flash flooding. While widespread severe weather is not anticipated, a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday through Sunday night. Uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the front and evolution of a surface low, which will ultimately influence the location and magnitude of these threats.

There is a slight concern in the increase of minor coastal flooding with a southeasterly flow that returns Sunday ahead of the front as previously mentioned. Swell periods expected to increase to 7 to 8 seconds. Even though the winds will shift to be out of the northeast after the front moves through, the periods still remain around 7-8. Conclusively, the rip current risk will also increase, proceed with caution for poor swimming conditions.

At this time, guidance is hinting at another possible front to move through our area sometime later next week, but being so far out, confidence is very low at the moment. Will keep an eye on any updates with that as the models update later into early next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 507 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Generally VFR conditions prevail overnight, although there is a low-medium (20-30% chance) of visibility restrictions in fog/mist at KALI and KVCT early Saturday morning. VFR conditions generally prevail through the day on Saturday, but scattered showers and isolated thunder may impact the terminals during the day (roughly 30-40% change). Left Prob30s for now due to uncertainty. Winds will turn light and variable overnight, before becoming prevailing Southeasterly around 10-15kts during the day on Saturday.

MARINE

Issued at 200 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Light to gentle southeasterly winds persist through Friday into Saturday ahead of a disturbance moving into our region. Low rain chances begin Saturday, with winds increasing from gentle to moderate saturday morning, then moderate to fresh Saturday afternoon. Rain chances increase from medium to high Saturday evening through Sunday evening. Ahead of the cold front Sunday evening, winds will strengthen from fresh to strong. The cold front is expected to push across the waters by Monday morning, shifting winds to the north and northeast with strong winds and gusts approaching gale force through Monday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely, with gale conditions possible. Elevated seas and increasing swell periods will also contribute to hazardous marine conditions. By Tuesday, winds will gradually weaken to moderate to fresh.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 200 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

No elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated through the forecast period. Onshore flow returns this afternoon, increasing moisture across the region. Soils remain saturated and fire weather concerns will be limited by the showers and thunderstorms expected across the region this weekend. Even after a cold front moves through Monday, temperatures will be cooler and minimum relative humidity values are expected to remain well above 60% initially. Although northerly winds will increase behind the front, recent rainfall and elevated humidity should limit significant fire weather concerns. Drier conditions are expected through the middle of next week, but widespread elevated fire weather conditions are not anticipated at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 61 77 68 79 / 0 30 50 70 Victoria 54 74 62 73 / 0 20 60 90 Laredo 61 78 67 81 / 0 20 0 0 Alice 55 77 65 81 / 0 30 10 70 Rockport 66 76 68 76 / 0 40 70 70 Cotulla 56 75 64 77 / 0 20 20 30 Kingsville 58 77 66 81 / 0 20 10 70 Navy Corpus 69 77 71 78 / 0 20 50 70

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.