textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 141 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

- Slight risk for excessive rainfall (2 out of 5) for Saturday

- Flood Watch in effect area-wide through Monday as multiple rounds of storms bring a marginal to slight risk of flash flooding each day.

- Increasing risk of river flooding by this weekend due to continued rounds of heavy rainfall.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 141 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Looks like we will have an break tonight in terms of MCS party! Convection is tapering off to the north of the region as of midnight, though some showers will likely clip the Victoria Crossroads region. Friday's rain chances will be relatively low across the region as shortwaves continue to track through the area (>40%).

Saturday, a more potent disturbance will move through the region and combine with above normal PWATs (2.0+ inches). This will lead to another round of widespread heavy rainfall. Efficient rainfall rates due to the environment over already saturated soils will likely lead to flooding. As previously mentioned, we have seen about 3-6 inches of rain over the past few days and Saturday we can expect around 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts. The area will remain in a Flood Watch until Monday. Will continue to monitor the trends but as it sits the area remains in a slight risk for excessive rainfall Saturday. There is still a possibility we could see an upgrade in the next few cycles therefore check back for future updates. The message will remain the same however, the area will be more susceptible to flooding and river flooding. It is encouraged to take the necessary precautions and to also not drive through flood waters.

Otherwise, our next chance of rain will likely be around the middle of next week. Will monitor this closely as it could cause further flooding concerns given already saturated soils. Temperatures will be in the 80s through the end of next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 141 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

VFR conditions will likely prevail across South Texas through this morning, with only occasional MVFR ceilings between 09-13Z and MVFR vsby for ALI/VCT. Winds will be light early this morning and shift more southeasterly by midday at around 10 knots. So far, convection seems to have remained to our north and greater low-level stability has fought off any initiation. We'll continue to keep a close eye, especially for storms developing over Mexico. There is a low (20- 30%) chance for showers and thunderstorms through the forecast but confidence is too low to include a mention at specific time window.

MARINE

Issued at 141 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Gentle to moderate E-SE winds will prevail today through the weekend over the waters. Brief periods of gusty and erratic winds (and elevated seas) will be possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Thunderstorm chances will be high (60-80%) Saturday and Sunday, with Friday having the lowest rain chances of the period (20-40%).

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 141 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

No fire weather concerns through the next week as moisture increases and minimum RHs remain over 50% area-wide. Low rain chances will be expected today with medium to high rain chances (50-80%) expected Saturday through Sunday. These should be solid wetting rains with generally aerial totals in the 2 to 4 inch range through the weekend with locally higher amounts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 88 76 85 73 / 40 20 70 70 Victoria 87 72 84 69 / 40 20 70 80 Laredo 91 73 88 71 / 10 20 60 40 Alice 89 73 85 70 / 30 30 80 70 Rockport 89 78 87 75 / 40 20 70 80 Cotulla 90 72 86 69 / 0 30 80 50 Kingsville 88 74 85 72 / 40 20 80 70 Navy Corpus 87 78 86 76 / 30 30 70 70

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Monday evening for TXZ229>234-239>247- 342>347-442-443-447.

GM...None.