textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 545 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

- Marine hazards diminishing tonight

- Low to moderate values (<30%) of rain chances Monday/Tuesday south of Port Aransas (along the coast)

- Temperatures climb back to normal and above-normal by the upcoming weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Autumn has finally arrived to South Texas. At the Corpus ASOS this morning, we hit 54F. While normal low temperatures don't drop to this value until late-November, the first occurrence of sub-55F low temperatures (according to the period of record) falls on October 19th, so we aren't too far off for our first cooldown. This drier and cooler airmass will stick around through tomorrow, where Sunday morning's low temperatures will fall to the upper 40s across the Brush Country and inland coastal plains, while along the coast, lows will generally drop to the 50s (low 60s on the barrier islands).

The front that moved through this weekend has stalled offshore. In the mid-levels a weak low on the tail of this front will slowly drift westward as the mid-level high pressure slides into the Southeastern US. This weak mid-level low will turn surface winds to be more easterly while also re-introducing 1.5-1.7" PWAT values towards coastal zones (per the GEFS). The combined mid- level energy and increasing PWATs will bring back showers across the western Gulf Monday, but how close this makes it to the Coastal Bend is low in confidence. For the same time frame, the ECMWF Ensemble has 1.3-1.6" PWATs meaning less opportunity for any offshore showers to push to far inland before evaporating out. As such, PoP values for Monday generally remain under 30% and are more concentrated for coastal zones south of Port Aransas.

Coastal rain chances continue Tuesday (again, low in confidence) as the mid-level feature hangs around the western Gulf waters, but all guidance shows this low filling in by Wednesday and mid-levels drying out starting mid-week.

Marine hazards will slowly diminish through the next 24 hr periods with bays recovering first this afternoon followed by the open waters overnight. Coastal flooding is low in confidence given the short duration for long-swell period to develop. The rip current risk drops to moderate starting tonight.

Temperatures will continue to climb back to normal and then above- normal values by the next weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 545 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF cycle. High clouds/cirrus are the only clouds expected. Winds gusting to around 20 knots this afternoon will continue to decrease through the evening hours, becoming light and variable tonight into Sunday morning. Wind direction is expected to become more easterly Sunday afternoon, but speeds will remain light.

MARINE

Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Northeast winds weaken through tonight with seas decreasing to 4-6 ft by Sunday morning. Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) northeast winds will persist through Monday, while winds gradually become more easterly. Low to moderate rain chances also return Monday across the western Gulf. By Monday night, 5-6 ft seas return to the open waters.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 112 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

While the latest ERC values from Texas A&M Forest Service forecast for today show Energy Release Component (ERC) values between the 50th and 70th percentile class after yesterday's cold front passage, RH values generally recovered to 60-70% last night, which was higher than forecast yesterday. This observed RH recovery gives lower confidence to ERC reaching above the 60th percentile. Wind gusts this afternoon will generally be 20-25 mph with RH values dropping to near 30%. While this elevates the fire risk, this should keep the fire risk limited. No fire headline is expected today. Sunday, weak NE winds will limit the fire risk while RH values drop to 25-30% in the afternoon. A return to more easterly winds for the upcoming work week will keep min RH values each afternoon generally above 30% through mid-week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 53 77 62 80 / 0 0 0 10 Victoria 49 77 55 82 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 50 76 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 50 77 58 82 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 59 77 65 82 / 0 0 0 10 Cotulla 49 75 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 49 77 60 81 / 0 0 0 10 Navy Corpus 62 76 68 80 / 0 0 10 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ345-442-443- 447.

High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ345-442- 443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ250-255-270- 275.