textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 519 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

- Medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain tonight through Monday.

- Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall on Sunday with flash flooding possible. Flood Watch is in effect through Monday morning.

- Minor coastal flooding expected Sunday and Monday during times of high tide.

- High Rip Current Risk on Sunday.

- Small Craft Advisory conditions with occasional gusts to near gale force expected Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

A few light showers are developing across the Brush Country this afternoon. This activity is expected to increase in areal coverage this evening with widespread showers and thunderstorms developing overnight. Abundant moisture combined with an embedded short wave out ahead of an approaching long wave trough, and strengthening low level moisture convergence overnight, will be conducive for heavy rainfall. The low level convergence/surface low axis, is expected to be located initially across the Brush country overnight with the axis shifting east through Sunday morning. There is concern that the surface low will move slowly allowing for training over some areas resulting in flooding and flash flooding. Confidence is high for widespread convection, but there remains some uncertainty with timing and location of the surface low, which makes it tricky to know just where the highest bullseye of rainfall may occur. Models are indicating another round of showers and storms Sunday night into Monday across S TX. Overall, rainfall totals for this event are expected to be 1-3 inches across the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Bend, up to 2-4 inches across the Brush Country. Isolated 7-9 inches is possible. Most of S TX is in a Flood Watch through Monday morning. Currently the Victoria Crossroads is not included in the watch, but may be included with later updates depending on where the heaviest rainfall sets up.

Another concern is high risk of rip currents and minor coastal flooding Sunday. The chance of minor coastal flooding along gulf facing beaches will increase on Sunday during high tide. This is due to a strengthening east-northeast flow across the gulf waters tonight into Sunday, which is conducive for pushing the water up to the dunes during high tide. In addition, normal tide levels will also be on the increase as we head toward a new moon. Latest P-ETSS run indicated that tide levels may exceed the 2ft MSL threshold during high tide Sunday and Monday with with up to 2.5 feet above MSL possible. The caveat is that models keep the long period swells at 7 seconds or less, but this may be under-estimated. Will continue to monitor trends for any changes to the tide levels and swells.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 519 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Our rain event is starting to ramp up across the Brush Country/Rio Grande Plains. On and off showers will continue through the night, with KLRD/KCOT seeing stronger showers/elevated storms resulting in mostly MVFR conditions by 10Z. This area of showers and thunderstorms will be capable of dropping CIGs/VIS down to IFR territory. By 12Z, a IFR/LIFR cloud deck builds across the Brush Country pushing as far east as KALI/KCRP. While a brief lull in intense rain comes after 18Z, the start of the next TAF cycle will continue to result in IFR/LIFR territory brought again for stronger showers/storms.

MARINE

Issued at 136 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Moderate easterly winds (BF 4) this afternoon will increase to fresh to strong northeast flow (BF 5-6) overnight through Sunday along with seas increasing to 5-7 ft. Medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms can be expected by early Sunday and continues into early next week. By Monday night, winds decrease to more gentle to moderate breezes with seas decreasing to 3-4 ft, and then near 2 ft by mid- week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 136 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

The fire risk will remain low through the forecast period due to minimum relative humidity values well above 30%. In addition, a medium to high chance for wetting rains can be expected across South Texas tonight through early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 70 77 64 73 / 30 70 70 70 Victoria 61 71 56 68 / 10 50 70 80 Laredo 66 74 62 69 / 100 100 100 90 Alice 66 74 60 70 / 60 90 90 80 Rockport 70 78 63 75 / 10 60 70 70 Cotulla 61 68 57 66 / 100 100 100 90 Kingsville 68 77 63 73 / 50 80 80 80 Navy Corpus 74 78 70 74 / 20 60 70 70

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Monday morning for TXZ229>233-239>246- 342>346-442-443.

High Rip Current Risk from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for TXZ345-442-443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to midnight CST Sunday night for GMZ231-232-236-237.

Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight CST Sunday night for GMZ250-255-270-275.