textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 636 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

- Dangerous swimming conditions with a high risk of rip currents along the Middle Texas Coast through this week

- Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of strong to severe storms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning

- Marginal Risk of (level 1 of 4) Flash Flooding due excessive rainfall from Tuesday night through Saturday morning with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) Thursday for the northern Coastal Plains.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

After several dry days since our last rain event, a wetter pattern will begin tomorrow night and continue through the end of the week. A series of repeating mid-level shortwaves will pass over South Texas through this week as a more potent trough or cutoff mid-level low develops over northern Mexico and moves eastward into Texas. Near climatological max moisture in combination of these disturbances, will promote showers and thunderstorms daily with the potential for heavy rainfall. While things could still change, the most likely scenario will be for 2-3" across the Brush Country and northern Coastal Plains and 1-2" across the the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. High end rainfall totals (10% chance of reaching these values) will be 4-5" across the Brush Country and northern Coastal Plains and 3-4" across the the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. Therefore, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted all of South Texas for a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of Flash Flooding from Tuesday night through Saturday morning with a Slight Risk (level 2 or 4) for the Coastal Plains Thursday. Apart from that, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted all of South Texas under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms Tuesday night with the primary hazards being strong winds and secondary hazard of large hail.

Persistent strong onshore flow with swell periods of 7-8 seconds warrants a high risk of rip currents, causing dangerous swimming conditions. These conditions will also lead to another threat for minor coastal flooding early tomorrow morning during high tide. We'll need to keep a close eye on webcams with how much wave runup we get, but confidence is low with the lack of buoy observations.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

MVFR ceilings have pushed there way into the Coastal Plains this evening, already impacting CRP/ALI/VCT. These ceilings will continue to spread westward through the overnight into morning hours. There is a low to medium chance for occasional IFR ceilings. Light showers lingering from storms originating in Mexico are dissipating as they make it into the Brush Country, enough to mention VCSH and TEMPO over LRD. I've added PROB30s for CRP/ALI/VCT for when these spotty showers could extend and make it later tonight. Southeasterly winds will be sustained 10-15 knots tonight, increasing through the day tomorrow at a sustained 14-20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 336 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

A fresh breeze (BF 5) is expected to continue through Tuesday morning which will cause a continuation of our current Small Craft Advisory. Winds will relax to a moderate breeze (BF 4) Tuesday morning and continue through the end of the work week. Medium chances (50-60%) for shower and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night through Friday night before increasing to higher chances (60- 80%) Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 80 90 79 89 / 20 10 60 30 Victoria 77 91 75 88 / 10 10 60 50 Laredo 79 99 76 94 / 20 10 60 40 Alice 79 94 77 91 / 20 10 60 30 Rockport 80 90 79 89 / 20 0 60 30 Cotulla 78 97 74 91 / 20 0 60 50 Kingsville 80 92 78 90 / 20 10 60 30 Navy Corpus 81 87 80 87 / 10 10 60 20

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday evening for TXZ345-442-443- 447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275.