textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 600 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

- Monitoring Invest 97L approaching the TX/LA region

- Increased rain chances this weekend

- Heat Index values nearing 110F each afternoon

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

This afternoon, most of the active seabreeze activity will be across the Victoria Crossroads, but still generally on the low end of the PoP spectrum (15-20%) after 1 PM. While heat index values will generally flirt at the 110F mark on and off with the peak heat of the afternoon, I will hold off on issuing a Heat Advisory, but we still encourage South Texans to continue to practice heat safety and checking in on the vulnerable population. Hydrate, hydrate, hydrate!

All eyes across the western Gulf are on Invest 97L. As of this writing, the National Hurricane Center is giving the area of low pressure a high chance (>60%) chance of developing into at least a tropical depression before it moves onshore. Hurricane model guidance generally moves 97L toward the TX/LA border area with much of the shower/thunderstorm activity moving toward Southeast Texas. Of the global models, the Euro is the wetter solution advecting in PWATs in excess of 2.0" toward the Houston area, but locally, the edge of these higher PWATs generally will be along the upper Coastal Bend/Victoria Crossroads. That means whatever storms develop in these areas have the potential for heavier rainfall rates, especially if training occurs. For this reason, the WPC has placed these areas under a Marginal Risk for flooding (level 1 of 4) Tuesday.

Whatever comes of this system, it will move onshore and continue moving to the northwest into north-central Texas. Mid-level high pressure will continue to dominate the overall mid/upper-level flow, positioning South Texas in a broad easterly flow, allowing more tropical-like moisture and weak disturbances to move across the western Gulf and increasing rain chances/seabreeze activity to more moderate chances this weekend (20-40% chances). In between any rainfall activity, heat-related concerns persist.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Brief MVFR ceilings have been observed at VCT and ALI early this morning. Expect we could see this continue through around 14Z, when VFR conditions will prevail through the rest of the TAF cycle. South to southeasterly winds will continue today, with afternoon gusts to around 25 knots. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible this afternoon along the seabreeze. Have not included this mention in the TAF as confidence is very low.

MARINE

Issued at 130 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Light morning onshore breezes become more gentle to moderate each afternoon with 1-2 ft seas. There will be daily chances for showers in the open waters through the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 130 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Minimum relative humidity values will drop to 25-30% across the Brush Country through Friday. Afternoons winds will be weak, limited the overall fire risk to just elevated. Winds overnight will pick up to 15-20 mph, but this will be at the time RHs increase. Rain chances generally remain below 15% through the work week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 95 78 97 77 / 0 0 10 0 Victoria 99 75 99 76 / 20 0 20 10 Laredo 105 78 105 78 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 101 74 102 74 / 0 0 10 0 Rockport 93 80 93 80 / 0 0 20 0 Cotulla 103 76 104 77 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 99 76 100 76 / 0 0 10 0 Navy Corpus 91 81 91 81 / 0 0 10 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.