textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 643 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

- Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts through Wednesday, heat index 100-110

- Low rain chances (10-20%) early in the week, increases to medium to high chances (40-75%) Tuesday night through Friday

- Elevated risk of rip currents and potential minor coastal flooding through early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Little overall change in the synoptic pattern through the short term period. The mid-level ridge that has dominated the region will gradually flatten and shift eastward through the weekend as a broad western CONUS trough deepens into the Desert Southwest. This will allow deeper Gulf moisture to continue streaming inland across South Texas.

Surface dewpoints have already climbed into the 70s and are expected to remain elevated through midweek ahead of an approaching cold front. Combined with afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s, heat index values will routinely peak between 100-110 degrees. The highest apparent temperatures are expected across the Brush Country and inland Coastal Plains where reduction in cloud cover will allow for greater heating. This will result in a moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts across South Texas for the first half of the week. Overnight lows will remain quite warm as well, generally in the mid to upper 70s, flirting with record warm minimum temperatures across several sites.

Heavy rainfall will remain a possible concern for the second half of next week as forecast confidence is expected to increase for a widespread wetter pattern. Moisture continues to deepen through the period with PWAT values 1.90-2.00+ inches by early in the workweek, according to the GEFS mean and GFS. This is approaching the 99th percentile for this time of year and could help promote efficient rainfall rates with any upcoming disturbances, possibly leading to isolated flooding, especially in low-lying or urban areas where the risk of ponding is higher. Currently, for the period of Tuesday evening through Saturday of next week, rainfall totals approach 1-3 inches across the region with locally higher amounts possible where stronger storms train over the same locations. While widespread severe weather is not currently anticipated, this could change should sufficient instability be able to overcome the cap ahead of the approaching cold front. The frontal boundary is expected to stall north of the region with showers and storms ahead and along the front. In addition, several shortwaves and PVA are progged to move across the region throughout the week. Depending on timing and how everything lines up, these disturbances will help to initiate elevated convection and could overcome the cap. Current forecast soundings suggest modest mid-level lapse rates and generally weak deep-layer shear, which is the limiting factor for increased confidence for severe storms at this time.

Coastal impacts may increase through early next week as persistent moderate to strong onshore flow maintains elevated seas and a higher risk for rip currents along Gulf-facing beaches. P-ETSS guidance still indicates water levels approaching minor coastal flooding thresholds during periods of high tide over the next few days as elevated onshore flow and swell periods combine with lunar tide cycles as we start to move away from the new moon phase.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 643 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Generally, VFR conditions currently prevail across South Texas. However, we are starting to see MVFR ceilings develop along the coast, likely going to impact CRP within the next few hours. MVFR ceilings will spread westward through the nighttime into early morning hours, with a lesser chance for IFR ceilings between 09-13Z. Breezy southeasterly winds will remain elevated tonight, above 10 knots, prohibiting any fog development. VFR conditions are expected to prevail by 16Z tomorrow, with southeasterly winds strengthening to a sustained 20-25 knots and gusts 25-30 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow will persist through early next week followed by gentle to moderate flow (BF 3-4) the remainder of the week. Small Craft Advisory conditions may be possible at times through Tuesday. Otherwise, expect Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions to prevail. Showers and thunderstorms become increasingly likely beginning late Tuesday with peak chances (up to 50-65%) early Wednesday through Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 79 90 80 91 / 10 0 10 10 Victoria 76 90 78 91 / 10 10 20 10 Laredo 77 99 79 101 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 77 94 79 95 / 0 10 20 0 Rockport 79 89 80 90 / 20 0 10 10 Cotulla 76 98 79 99 / 0 10 10 0 Kingsville 78 91 80 92 / 0 10 10 10 Navy Corpus 80 86 80 87 / 10 0 10 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.