textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1230 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

- Showers and storms developing ahead of next cold front this afternoon through Friday morning.

- A soggy weekend is in store with 1-3 inch rainfall amounts through Monday, though confidence is lower on higher-end amounts.

- Monitoring coastal/marine hazards this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

After yesterday's cold front passage, it wound up being a beautiful, fall day across South Texas, however, change is in the air. In the mid-/upper-levels, the subtropical jet is settling into place along the US/Mexico border and extending into the Southeast. At the surface, the cold front that moved through yesterday has now started lifting back north as a warm front, resulting in a weak, southeasterly flow allowing Gulf moisture/higher dewpoints to settle back into South Texas. This afternoon, this surface moisture advection, coupled with eastern Pacific moisture advecting in aloft, will increase PWATs to 1.6-1.9" values across South Texas and all preceding the next frontal passage overnight into Friday morning. While this will not bring a cooldown, what this will do is increase the moisture/surface convergence across the Coastal Bend. What will be the tricky part of the forecast tonight/Friday morning will be how far north the warm front lifts to as the further north it moves, the greater chance for instability to develop (CAPE increasing to 500-1000 J/kg) and how strong will the bulk shear will be over South Texas. Latest hi-res guidance indicates that storm strength will be greatest as any storm that moves into the western Gulf waters, but any shower/storm that moves our communities has the potential to drop a quick 1-2 inches in rainfall. Most of this shower activity pushes south into Deep South Texas by the time the Friday morning commute gets underway. Friday is looking on the drier side with dewpoints in the 50s and 60s. Quite nice if you ask me.

While a nice Friday is in store, a positively-tilted trough will deepen as it moves through the Desert Southwest. Vorticity lobes will continue to pivot around this trough and into Texas, combined with the persistent subtropical jet streak across much of the state. All this to say, Saturday is looking to be on the soggy, initially across the Rio Grande Plains, and then spreading eastward through the rest of South Texas by Saturday night. These widespread rain chances (60-80% PoPs) will carry on into Sunday. As of this writing, NBM mean shows 48hr accumulations (ending Monday morning) shows a widespread 1-3 in rainfall amounts, with NBM90 coming in closer to 4- 6 inches. Note that the NBM gives the area between Corpus Christi Bay and Baffin Bay a 20% chance of exceeding 4 inches rainfall amounts Saturday/Sunday. For this reason, WPC has placed the region under a Marginal Risk for the Excessive Rainfall Outlook on Saturday and Sunday. While confidence is low for these higher-end amounts, we can't entirely discount them given the setup. As the upper-level trough approaches South Texas, a secondary surge of high pressure will increase northeast winds across the western Gulf waters to at times, near-gale conditions. We'll keep monitoring the latest forecast trends for wind magnitude to help decide which marine headline will be needed.

If all that wasn't enough and were hoping to go to the beach this weekend, it's not looking like it'll be a pleasurable experience. With the new moon approaching this weekend, combined with the northeast flow across our marine zones, will allow water levels to approach 2 ft above MSL as soon has the high tide cycle and continuing through the weekend. Latest P-ETSS guidance is showing that the water levels have the possibility of reaching 2.0-2.5 ft. Unfortunately, high tide cycles this weekend will occur in the afternoons/evenings, when people would be most prevalent on the beach. Please continue to check back and keep an eye out on local beach cams for the latest water level conditions.

After all that talk about precipitation associated with the cold frontal passages and the marine/coastal hazards, it's finally time to talk about the temperatures! Today's frontal passage will keep highs in the 70s/80s for Friday, but the big cool down will come Saturday and Sunday (though the front itself isn't the main reason while we'll remain in the 60s/70s this weekend (thank you rain). Rain chances decrease Monday into Tuesday as the trough moves into the ECONUS, allowing slight ridging influence to build across Texas, gradually warming temperatures back to near-normal values.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected again through the overnight hours. VFR to MVFR conditions tomorrow as rain chances slightly increase. Have included MVFR to IFR conditions in a PROB30 for CRP/ALI associated with showers/thunderstorms across southern half of the region. Otherwise expecting dry conditions with light and variable winds.

MARINE

Issued at 1230 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Expect light to gentle onshore breezes (BF 2-3) through early Friday night and near 2 ft seas, with worsening conditions in the vicinity of a thunderstorm late Friday night and into Friday morning. By mid Friday morning, winds become more northeasterly at a moderate strength (BF 4) and 2-3 ft seas. By Saturday afternoon, a secondary surge of stronger winds moves into the western Gulf with showers and storms coverage increasing. Near-gale conditions develop on Sunday with seas increasing to 7-10 ft with widespread showers continuing.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1230 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

The fire risk will remain low as minimum relative humidity values are forecast to remain above 30% and rain chances Thursday night, and again this weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 82 67 80 64 / 20 50 20 0 Victoria 82 63 79 59 / 0 10 0 0 Laredo 83 67 78 63 / 10 40 20 10 Alice 84 66 79 61 / 10 40 10 0 Rockport 82 67 81 64 / 20 30 10 10 Cotulla 85 63 80 61 / 0 10 0 0 Kingsville 84 66 80 62 / 20 60 20 0 Navy Corpus 81 70 79 68 / 20 60 20 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.