textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 552 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

- Moderate Heat Risk for South Texas today

- Low to medium rain/thunderstorm chances late in the week with the next front

- Marginal threat (1 out of 5) for severe storms today.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 143 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

cold front will continue to move slowly to the south across Texas today. While previous guidance hinted that this could reach into South Texas, HiRes and global models are now all stalling this to the north, which will limit the rainfall chances. At this point, most of the convection looks like it could be across our western areas this evening as storms move into the area from Mexico. With abundant moisture and sufficient instability, we could still see some strong to severe thunderstorms over the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country. SPC has maintained a Marginal Risk of Severe Weather across much of South Texas.

The cold front will finally begin a push across South Texas Friday, bringing us a medium to high (40-75%) chance of showers and thunderstorms across the northern Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. WPC has us in a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for Friday, so we'll need to monitor for some localized flash flooding. While it is technically north of our forecast area, it is nice to note that there is a medium (45-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms over the northern portions of our watershed. We'll keep our fingers crossed that some of this will actually have a chance to impact the lake levels.

Temperatures over the last few days have not reached as high as guidance has indicated, particularly across the Brush Country, so have dropped today's forecast highs a few degrees. As we move further into the week, cloud cover is expected to increase ahead of the cold front resulting in high temperatures in the 80s to mid-90s Thursday. Temperatures will be much cooler this weekend behind the front, with highs in the 70s possible across most of South Texas.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 552 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

VFR conditions will diminish to MVFR over South Texas tonight, as early as 02Z for the eastern sites and by 09Z for the western terminals. There is a possibility for some strong to severe thunderstorms, particularly over the Brush Country, this evening but with low confidence, have not included a mention of TSRA in our TAFs. Will keep monitoring and update if needed. VFR conditions will return Thursday midday across the area.

MARINE

Issued at 143 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A gentle to moderate onshore flow (BF 3-4) through the end of the week may become fresh (BF 5) at times. A cold front will move across the waters Friday, with winds shifting to the northeast and increasing to strong to near Gale (BF 6-7). A low to medium (30- 60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms will develop Friday and continue into the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 143 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Despite warm temperatures and breezy conditions, fire weather concerns are not expected today. Low to medium rain chances through the end of the week will further inhibit fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 74 86 74 86 / 10 10 20 60 Victoria 69 88 67 78 / 10 20 50 90 Laredo 75 90 72 87 / 10 0 30 40 Alice 73 90 72 87 / 10 10 20 60 Rockport 74 85 74 83 / 10 10 20 70 Cotulla 72 89 68 79 / 20 10 60 70 Kingsville 74 88 73 89 / 0 10 10 50 Navy Corpus 76 83 75 83 / 10 10 20 60

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.