textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1247 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

- Cold front expected early Friday with re-enforcing surge of high pressure Saturday night.

- Medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms across southern Coastal Plains tonight, then again over the weekend across all of South Texas.

- Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook Saturday through Sunday.

- Minor coastal flooding and marine hazards possible through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1247 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Isolated weak showers are currently moving northward across the southern portions of the Coastal Plains and Brush Country this afternoon. Models indicate an increase in rain chances tonight initially due to a stalled boundary, then a cold front overnight into Friday morning. The highest chances will be across the southern portions of S TX with a 40% probability from Corpus Christi to Encinal and up to a 70% probability from Kingsville to south of Laredo. This activity will be mostly showers with a few thunderstorms. Higher chances with heavier rainfall exists across Deep S TX. Rain chances drop off from north to south Friday morning as drier and cooler air moves into S TX.

A deepening mid/upper level long wave trough is progged to move toward the Desert SW and W TX this weekend. This will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to S TX as embedded short waves track northeast out ahead of the main trough. The combination of the short waves with a 90KT upper jet, deep moisture (PWATs up to 1.9 inches) and low level moisture convergence due to a secondary surge of surface high pressure, will result in a high chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday. The surge of high pressure will usher in a strong, but shallow cold airmass into S TX Saturday night, with isentropic upglide developing overhead and maintaining the high chance of rain with embedded thunderstorms through Sunday. Rain chances slowly decrease from west to east Sunday night through Monday as the mid level trough begins to move northeast of the area. Confidence in this scenario coming to fruition remains low to moderate due to variations between the model outputs. Timing and strength of this system may change as we draw closer to the weekend, depending on how far south the mid level trough digs west of S TX and how fast or slow the trough lifts northeast out of the area.

The uncertainty with this forecast also makes forecasting rainfall totals tricky, but for now S TX is expected to receive 1-2.5 inches from Saturday through Monday morning. Isolated higher amounts up to 3-4 inches are possible. These amounts may lead to flooding, especially low lying areas, streams, creeks, and urban areas.

As for the temperatures, the cold front moving through the area overnight will lead to max temperatures in the 70s to around 80 on Friday. Highs in the 70s on Saturday will more likely be due to cloud cover and rain. The reinforcing surge late Saturday will bring highs in the 60s to around 70 for Sunday and Monday. Lows in the mid 50s to around 60 along the coastline can be expected by Saturday night with the second reinforcing surge of high pressure. Cooler temps with low to mid 50s (around 60 across the islands) are expected Sunday night

The chance of minor coastal flooding along gulf facing beaches will increase through Friday and especially by the weekend. This is due to a strengthening northeast flow across the gulf waters by Saturday which is conducive for ekman forcing to push the water up to the dunes during high tide. In addition, normal tide levels will also be on the increase as we head toward a new moon. Latest P-ETSS run indicated that tide levels may exceed the 2ft MSL threshold during times of high tide by Friday with 2.0-2.5 feet MSL over the weekend. The P-ETSS is now showing tide levels approaching 3 feet MSL by Monday during high tide, but confidence is low at this time. The one thing missing will be long period swells. Swell periods are only expected to get up to 7 seconds. Will monitor trends for any changes to the tide levels and swells.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions can be expected through the afternoon, becoming prevailing MVFR by late afternoon and overnight. Conditions improve to VFR levels late Friday morning. Can not rule out IFR conditions tonight in and around scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with a cold front, mainly affecting LRD, ALI and CRP TAF sites. Winds will remain light and variable through tonight, becoming more northerly 10-15 knots by mid to late Friday morning in the wake of the cold front.

MARINE

Issued at 1247 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

A cold front is expected to move through the region late tonight into early Friday bringing a moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) northerly wind Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. The flow becomes strong (BF 6) out of the northeast late Saturday and continues through Sunday with occasional gusts to gale force possible. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed this weekend. Winds relax to a moderate (BF 4) level by Monday, but will remain northeast. A medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms expected tonight through Friday morning then drying out by Friday afternoon. Medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms returns Saturday afternoon through Sunday night.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1247 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

The fire risk will remain low through the forecast period due to minimum relative humidity values well above 30%. In addition, a medium to high chance for wetting rains can be expected along the southern coastal plains tonight, and then again across South Texas over the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 68 81 64 77 / 40 20 10 40 Victoria 63 79 59 76 / 10 10 0 20 Laredo 68 79 64 74 / 60 50 20 60 Alice 66 80 62 76 / 50 20 10 40 Rockport 68 81 65 79 / 20 10 10 20 Cotulla 65 81 62 73 / 30 10 10 60 Kingsville 67 81 63 77 / 60 20 10 40 Navy Corpus 71 79 69 77 / 50 20 10 30

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.