textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 621 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

- Fire Danger Statement in effect this afternoon for the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will be possible at times across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains through the period.

- Above normal temperatures continue through the work week.

- A low chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through Thursday and again this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 132 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Generally dry conditions, breezy afternoon winds and well above normal temperatures will continue today through mid week. Forecast gets a bit tricky by Wednesday as models remain inconsistent with respect to a weak cold front and rain chances for S TX. Latest GFS run is now slower with the cold front and keeps it north of the region. The better chance of showers and thunderstorms are also forecast to remain generally north of S TX, but could skirt the Victoria Crossroads. Deepening moisture, weak instability and an upper trough are still forecast to develop mid week. Thus, will keep the low chance (15-30%) of rain for Wednesday-Thursday with the Victoria Crossroads having the better chance at 30% on Thu. Regardless, most locations will likely remain dry and very warm temps will continue through the end of the work week.

The next chance for rain is this weekend. Models are in fair agreement with an upper system bringing a moderate cold front with a low to medium (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms across S TX through the weekend. There is the potential for below normal temperatures by Sunday. Given this is still 6-7 days out, adjustments are likely and will fine tune the forecast as the weekend approaches.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

BKN MVFR ceilings spread across South Texas, causing terminals to flip-flop between VFR to MVFR with slight vsby reductions over ALI/CRP. This will continue through 14-15Z before VFR conditions prevail through this afternoon and evening. Weak southeasterly winds this morning will strengthen to 15-20 knots with gusts 25-30 knots this afternoon, before weakening tonight. Another MVFR/IFR ceiling event is expected late tonight, slightly elevated winds may prohibit fog development.

MARINE

Issued at 132 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) southeasterly flow will continue through Wednesday. Periods of a fresh (BF 5) breeze south of Port Aransas to Baffin Bay will be possible each afternoon. A fresh to strong (BF 5-6) breeze is expected to develop Wednesday night into Thursday with advisory conditions possible. A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) breeze develops the remainder of the week. There is a low (10- 20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms by the middle of the week with chances increasing next weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 132 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

This afternoon the 20 foot winds are expected to strengthen to around 15-20 mph and the relative humidity is expected to drop to 25 to 30 percent across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country. This combination along with dry fuels will lead to elevated fire weather conditions across the west portions of South Texas. Minimum relative humidity values are expected to drop below 30% each afternoon over the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country leading to elevated to near critical fire weather conditions at times during the week when combined with breezy southeasterly flow, and dry fuels. A low chance of showers and thunderstorms will return by the middle of the week and again this weekend, which could help to improve fire weather conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 83 67 85 70 / 0 0 20 0 Victoria 84 64 85 67 / 0 0 20 0 Laredo 92 67 94 70 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 89 64 91 67 / 0 0 10 0 Rockport 81 70 82 71 / 0 0 20 0 Cotulla 92 65 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 87 66 88 68 / 0 0 20 0 Navy Corpus 78 70 79 72 / 0 0 30 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.