textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 200 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

- Medium to high chance for freezing temperatures Saturday night to Sunday morning (40-70%) across portions of South Texas

- Wind chill values 25-30 degrees inland and 30-35 degrees along the coast Sunday morning

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected this weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

As southerly flow returns tomorrow ahead of our next cold front Friday night, above normal temperatures will return for one day. The cold front is expected to swing through the region Friday night ushering in significantly colder air with high pressure moving into the region Saturday. With high pressure in place and light winds expected Saturday night, radiational cooling is expected to occur with lows dropping into the low to upper 30s across South Texas. There's a medium to high (40-70%) chance for temperatures to drop below freezing Saturday night across the northern Coastal Plains from La Salle through Live Oak and Bee and up to the Victoria. Elsewhere, chances for freezing temperatures will be low (10-20%). Regardless of whether temperatures drop below freezing or not, it's going to feel cold! Wind chill values late Saturday night into Sunday morning are expected to dip into the 25-30 degree range inland and 30-35 degree range along the coast. While rain chances are not high (10-20% along the immediate coast) with the aforementioned cold front, higher rain chances are expected to return mid-week next week with the arrival of our second cold front. While uncertainty remains in the forecast beyond Monday, the current forecast calls for medium (30-50%) chances for rain Tuesday through Wednesday with storm total accumulations up to 2".

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF cycle with light winds. Winds will be variable to start the forecast period as winds slowly shift from the northeast to south. After 04-06z tonight, winds should complete the shift and be predominately from the south.

MARINE

Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Winds will quickly weaken this afternoon and become light and variable tonight before shifting to the south tonight and increasing to moderate to fresh levels (BF 4-5). However, this will be short lived as our next cold front is expected Friday night shifting the winds back to the northeast and increasing to strong breeze (BF 6) Friday night through Saturday night. Winds will weaken back to moderate to fresh levels on Sunday. Mostly dry conditions are expected except for Friday night through Saturday, where low to medium (25-45%) chances for rain will linger over the Gulf waters.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Critically low relative humidity values will hang around through the weekend with the most significant days being Saturday (20-30% inland) and Sunday (15-30% areawide). Although Saturday will be the windiest day of the two with gusts to 15-20 mph, the Energy Release Component (ERC) values for both days are expected to be in the 70- 80th percentile for all of South Texas except for the Victoria Crossroads and northern Coastal Bend, where ERC values will be in the 60-65th percentiles. Although the winds won't be as strong, the moderate to high ERC values with relative humidity values in the bottom 25th percentile of climatological normals will likely lead to elevated fire weather concerns, possibly creeping to critical levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 47 77 53 62 / 0 0 10 10 Victoria 42 76 45 58 / 0 0 10 0 Laredo 47 77 49 63 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 42 79 49 62 / 0 0 0 10 Rockport 53 72 52 62 / 0 0 10 10 Cotulla 42 77 45 59 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 44 79 52 63 / 0 0 0 10 Navy Corpus 55 72 56 62 / 0 0 20 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.