textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 516 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

- Overnight/early morning fog at times through next week.

- Elevated Fire Weather conditions possible at times into next week, mainly across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country.

- Increasing rain chances mid week and next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1121 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

The upcoming forecast has not changed too much. Light patchy morning fog will be possible at times. Unseasonably warm conditions will continue through Friday with temperatures remaining around 10 degrees above normal. Models indicate cooler temperatures by the weekend due to increasing clouds and rain.

Rain chances will remain very low through Tuesday due to a mid to upper level high pressure system over Mexico. Although models are now showing a 20-40% chance of showers over the gulf waters by Tuesday. Models have been consistently showing the high pressure shift east through Tuesday as a deepening upper low moves southeastward from the Pacific NW bringing embedded short waves across TX. Latest model runs are indicating slightly less moisture by Wed than previous runs, but still sufficient for low to medium (10-30%) chance of showers. A strengthening southerly low level jet around 35-40knots will continue to usher deeper moisture into S TX with PWATs increasing from around 1.2 inches on Wed up to 1.6 inches by the weekend. The deeper moisture, moderate instability, and a mid level short wave will be conducive for convective development by the weekend. Latest guidance shows a medium to high (30-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Rain fall totals for the weekend may be as high as 1.5 inches across the northern CWA to 0.5-1.0 inches across the southern areas.

There remains uncertainty for the weekend rain event as this is still 6-8 days out and models will likely adjust timing and intensity as the weekend approaches. The main caveat is the strength of the cap.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 516 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Mainly MVFR CIGS this morning, but could briefly see a drop to IFR or some VIS reductions as the sun comes up this morning. Will see gusty southeast winds today, but VFR conditions. Expect a similar story tonight to what have seen this morning with MVFR conditions developing for most sites.

MARINE

Issued at 1121 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

A generally moderate (BF 4) onshore breeze will continue into early Tuesday. Onshore winds are expected to increase to a moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) breeze by Tuesday afternoon and continues through the remainder of the week. Winds across the bays and nearshore waters south of Port Aransas may become strong (BF 6) at times the latter half of the week. There is a 5-15% chance of showers Monday increasing to a 20-30% Tuesday through Wednesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase over the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1121 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Onshore flow will maintain elevated humidity across South Texas. However, fuels remain cured, thus elevated fire weather conditions are possible, especially Monday and Tuesday, across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country, when minimum RH values will be in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Winds are expected to remain below thresholds through Monday. However, winds may strengthen to critical levels by Tuesday, but this will also increase minimum relative humidity values through the remainder of the week. The chance for wetting rain will be low through next Friday, but increasing over the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 82 66 84 68 / 0 0 10 10 Victoria 83 63 84 65 / 0 0 10 10 Laredo 91 64 92 69 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 88 63 90 67 / 0 0 0 10 Rockport 80 67 81 68 / 0 10 10 10 Cotulla 89 63 92 68 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 85 64 88 68 / 0 0 0 10 Navy Corpus 76 68 78 69 / 10 0 20 20

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.