textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 722 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Minor coastal flooding is expected through at least tonight, and could linger through the middle of the week

- Low chances of rain persists through the week

- A cold front will sweep through South Texas at the conclusion of the week bringing potential impacts

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Low chances for rain will continue through mid-week each afternoon due to seabreeze interactions. We are pleasantly expecting our first arctic cold front late this week. NBM currently has highs in the 80s this weekend with lows in the 50s and 60s, however, some models are showing cooler temperatures for this weekend. This will be something that we will need to fine tune as the event gets closer. Another aspect of the forecast that will need to be fine tuned is the wind potential. As of this moment, strong winds are expected that will lead to Small Craft Advisory conditions but remaining below Gale. Some probabilistic models though are showing a low chance for Gale force winds in the wake of the front. Although rain chances have decreased a bit from previous forecast, showers and thunderstorms will still be possible with the frontal passage.

Warm temperatures will continue with highs in the 90s through mid- week before the cold front. Heat index values for the next couple of days will range from 106-111 degrees along with a moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts. Please remember to continue to practice heat safety: take breaks when outside, drink plenty of water, and look before you lock.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 722 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the entirety of the TAF cycle. We will see some MVFR CIGs building around ALI,COT,LRD from 08Z-16Z, though conditions will improve there after returning to VFR. Expect winds to be light tonight and increase again around midmorning around 15-20 knots sustained with gusts up to 20-30 knots out of the southeast.

MARINE

Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Generally moderate to occasionally fresh (BF 4-5) onshore flow will persist through much of the week, with moderate rain chances continuing as moisture increases. A cold front is expected to move across the waters late Friday into Saturday, shifting winds to the northeast and increasing to fresh to strong levels, with brief near- gale conditions possible and Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. Elevated seas are also expected, while rain chances diminish if the wake of the front.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 122 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions will not be expected through the week. Above normal moisture in the region and relatively light winds will limit concerns. A cold front is expected to move through South Texas this weekend, bringing cooler temperatures and potentially stronger northerly winds. Despite the possibility of elevated winds behind the front, relatively high humidity, periodic rain chances, and low ERC percentiles should limit overall fire weather concerns. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 122 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions will not be expected through the week. Above normal moisture in the region and relatively light winds will limit concerns. A cold front is expected to move through South Texas this weekend, bringing cooler temperatures and potentially stronger northerly winds. Despite the possibility of elevated winds behind the front, relatively high humidity, periodic rain chances, and low ERC percentiles should limit overall fire weather concerns. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 79 93 79 91 / 0 10 0 10 Victoria 76 95 77 94 / 10 20 10 20 Laredo 77 100 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 76 96 77 95 / 0 0 0 10 Rockport 81 91 81 90 / 10 10 10 10 Cotulla 77 100 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 77 94 77 92 / 0 10 0 10 Navy Corpus 82 90 82 88 / 0 10 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ245-342>347- 442-443-447.

GM...None.