textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 147 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- NHC continues to indicate a low chance (20%) of tropical development over the next 7 days for a broad area of low pressure just offshore of eastern Mexico.

- Rainy conditions will continue through at least the middle of next week as deep tropical moisture coincides with an approaching weak frontal boundary.

- WPC highlights a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall and flash flooding for Monday. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) is in place for Sunday and Tuesday.

- High Rip Current Risk and minor coastal flooding likely this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Deeper moisture has begun to spread across South Texas ahead of a broad area of low pressure just offshore of eastern Mexico. While NHC continues to indicate only a low chance (20%) for tropical development of this low through the next seven days, the plume of moisture will significantly increase rain chances across the region through the next several days. Mid-level ridging will remain in place through much of today, but PWATs are expected to climb into the 2.0-2.5 inch range (~2.25 inches already per today's 18Z CRP sounding), supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly across the eastern half of the CWA. Temperatures today will remain hot with highs generally in the 90s inland, and elevated humidity will support heat index values between 100-105 degrees.

Rain chances are expected to increase even further Sunday through Tuesday as that tropical moisture continues to deepen and a mid-to upper-level trough digging across the Plains pushes a weak frontal boundary south. The combination of the frontal boundary, abundant tropical moisture, and increasing large-scale ascent will support widespread showers and thunderstorms across much of the region. Forecast soundings indicate a highly efficient rainfall environment with saturated profiles, deep warm cloud layers, and long, skinny instability profiles.

Current guidance generally supports rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches across portions of South Texas through midweek, with locally higher totals up to 4-7 inches possible where repeated rounds of convection or training thunderstorms develop. Localized flash flooding will remain possible, especially in urban corridors, low-lying areas, and locations with poor drainage. WPC continues to highlight most of South Texas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall Sunday and Tuesday and has introduced a broad Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Monday.

By mid-to-late week, rainfall chances should gradually diminish as the deepest moisture and strongest forcing shift eastward and the mid-level ridge begins to rebuild. However, lingering moisture will support scattered diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening hours heading into next weekend. Temperatures may trend slightly cooler during the wetter portion of the forecast due to increased cloud cover and precipitation, but high temperatures will rebound into the 90s by Thursday, accompanied by increasing heat indices and a renewed moderate to major heat risk across portions of area as the ridge rebuilds.

As far as coastal hazards go, long-period swells around 7-8 seconds and seas of 5-7 feet combined with astronomically higher tides due to the new moon phase on Sunday will lead to hazardous marine and beach conditions. This includes a heightened risk for rip currents and minor coastal flooding concerns during times of high tide this weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A line of showers and storms will continue to move through South Texas over the next several hours, winding down around 00Z before another wave of precipitation arrives overnight tonight. PROB30 groups were utilized to denote this potential. Expect for mainly VFR conditions to prevail, but any heavier showers or storms will have the capabilities of briefly reducing CIGS and VSBYs to MVFR/IFR levels. East-southeasterly winds generally around 5-10 knots will continue this cycle with occasional gusts up to 20-25 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) onshore flow will persist through the period with seas of 5-7 feet in response to a long east-southeast fetch across the Gulf from a broad area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are currently in place, with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely developing over our far offshore waters later this evening. Therefore, an Advisory has been issued from 00-12Z Sunday. In addition to the adverse hazardous marine conditions, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected through midweek next week, with locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and brief gusty winds possible in and around any stronger storms. Small Craft should Exercise Caution conditions will continue early next week, with Small Craft Advisory conditions likely again during the second half of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 80 90 78 88 / 40 70 80 80 Victoria 78 90 77 88 / 20 70 80 80 Laredo 77 94 77 91 / 10 50 40 70 Alice 77 91 77 88 / 30 70 60 90 Rockport 82 90 82 90 / 40 70 80 80 Cotulla 77 93 76 90 / 10 40 50 80 Kingsville 78 90 77 87 / 40 60 60 90 Navy Corpus 82 89 82 88 / 50 70 80 80

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for TXZ345-442-443- 447.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ345- 442-443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ270-275.