textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 611 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

- Minor coastal flooding and moderate to high risk of rip currents possible through the weekend.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase this weekend as a cold front moves into the region.

- Small Craft Advisory conditions possible Friday and then again Saturday night into Sunday behind a cold front. Gusts to near gale force possible early Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Models have been consistently showing above normal temperatures through Sat, cold front Sat evening, increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms associated with the cold front and continuing behind the cold front on Sunday along with noticeably cooler temperatures and breezy conditions. Therefore, confidence is moderate to high. There have been minor changes in timing, but generally Saturday evening/night. Also, minor changes in rainfall amounts. Mostly under an inch is expected Saturday night through Sunday night with the higher amounts across the southern and western CWA. However, the cold front lifts back to the north as a warm front/surface low bringing another round of rainfall with an additional 0.5 to 1.5 inches Monday through Tuesday. The higher amounts are forecast across the eastern CWA, but this is dependent on where the surface low tracks. If it tracks farther east, then the higher amounts will be over the gulf waters.

As for the probability of convection, on Saturday, chances increase to 20-30% with the higher chance generally across the northern portions of the Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads as the cold front moves toward the Cotulla to Victoria areas. Rain chances increase to 45-80% Saturday night into Sunday with the highest chance across the southern Rio Grande Plains. Am expecting the convection to become more stratiform behind the front on Sunday with isentropic lift/overrunning conditions set up. A few elevated storms will still be possible. The highest chance (up to 60%) is expected across the southern half of the CWA. A 40-60% chance of showers and thunderstorms expected Monday as the surface low lifts northward. Low to medium chances continue into Tuesday, then decreasing the middle of next week.

Forecasted temperatures behind the front on Sunday will be a few degrees below normal with highs in the 70s area-wide with similar highs Monday. Lows generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s are expected. Gradual warming trend next week.

Minor coastal flooding and moderate to high rip current risk will be possible daily during times of high tide through the weekend. The PETSS indicates increasing tide levels through the weekend with Bob Hall and Aransas Pass reaching 2ft MSL Sunday/Monday. A Coastal Flood Advisory may be needed. These conditions would be due to forecasted winds out of the northeast at 20-30 knots along with an increasing swell period up to 8 seconds and seas up to 10 feet. The swells may also lead to an increasing rip current risk but will be offset by the "along- shore" wind direction. These conditions are dependent on frontal passage timing and strength.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Another seasonal TAF forecast with overnight MVFR CIGS and breezy afternoon conditions. Mainly VFR conditions are in place as of issuance time, but expect MVFR CIGS to begin developing over the next few hours. Gusty winds will subside in the next few hours as well. Tomorrow wind gusts could be a bit stronger than what we have seen today, with gusts approaching from VCT to CRP.

MARINE

Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

A Moderate to Fresh (BF 4-5) onshore flow will persist through tonight. A fresh to strong (BF 5-6)onshore flow is expected to develop across bays and coastal waters on Friday with advisory conditions possible. Winds relax Saturday, then shift to the northeast and become strong (BF 6) with gusts to near gale late Saturday night into Sunday in the wake of a cold front. A Fresh onshore breeze returns by Monday and decreases through Tuesday. Low rain chances (<~15%) expected through Friday then increase to a medium to high (30-70%) this weekend, especially Saturday night into Sunday as the cold front moves across the region. Rain chances continue into early next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 149 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

The chance for wetting rains through Friday remains very low (<10%) along with continued above normal temperatures. Minimum RH values will remain generally above 30-40% through the period. South to southeast winds are expected to strengthen across South Texas Friday, but based on the forecasted above normal moisture and low ERC values, elevated fire weather is not expected at this time. The chance of thunderstorms with measurable rainfall increases over the weekend with the arrival of a cold front. The best chance of showers and thunderstorms is Saturday night into Sunday morning as the cold front moves through South Texas. Cooler behind the front, but still humid with rain chances continuing into early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 72 85 73 85 / 0 0 0 10 Victoria 69 86 70 86 / 0 0 0 30 Laredo 72 97 73 93 / 0 0 0 20 Alice 70 91 71 88 / 0 0 0 20 Rockport 73 84 73 84 / 0 0 0 20 Cotulla 70 96 70 86 / 0 0 0 20 Kingsville 71 88 72 87 / 0 0 0 10 Navy Corpus 74 81 75 81 / 0 0 0 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.