textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 146 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

- Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of strong to severe storms Saturday

-Flood Watch in effect area-wide through Monday as multiple rounds of storms bring a marginal to slight risk of flash flooding each day.

-Risk of river flooding this weekend with more rounds of storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 146 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Lots to unpack in this discussion with the forecast primarily for the weekend. There are a lot of variables in play. The first being convection today and tonight. Some suggestions we could get a few sea breeze showers/storms this afternoon. 18Z sounding coming in shows plenty of energy to work with thanks to some good heating today. Temps are up into the mid 80s. This should be pretty pulsey in nature and not last too long, also don't expect it to have much impact on the story for tomorrow. The thing that could complicate the forecast more is an MCS forecast by some models to come out of Mexico late this evening into tonight. Given usual complexities of Mexican convection, confidence is not high, but there is a decent pooling of cape along the Rio Grande that supports the possibility. If it did happen it looks to be earlier in the night than recent events, pushing through by around midnight to 2am. Confidence is low to moderate in this actually occurring.

If the aforementioned convection does move through, will it take away energy needed to get the expected convection tomorrow, or will it throw out boundaries to enhance convection tomorrow? Given the uncertainty of occurrence, will not try to directly account for this in the forecast at this time, but realize that this scenario is there and could completely change the story. In that case, expect convection to move from east to west across the area tomorrow beginning by mid to late morning and continuing through the afternoon. With PWAT values north of 2 inches, as mentioned previously, rainfall rates will play a big role in the flash flood potential, along with the antecedent rainfall from the past couple of days. 2-3" per hour rates could quickly lead to ponding on roads given the 3-5" we've seen mainly across the Coastal Plains. We do have a marginal risk of severe during the day tomorrow, but suspect this would be limited unless we can get some breaks in the clouds to warm the surface layer a bit. Primary thinking on rainfall totals remains around 2-3 inches areawide with localized totals as high as 6". That said, if a surface boundary were to set up and storms trained along it, totals could be higher on average.

Will see main mid-level shortwave push westward by Monday (though GFS is notably slower) and should decrease rain chances for Monday and Tuesday. Then we have to watch for another negatively tilted shortwave rotating across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. While not quite as high, PWAT values forecast for that period would again support the potential for some heavy rain. We'll keep an eye on this one, but get through the weekend system before nailing down details on that.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 146 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

VFR conditions persist this afternoon. There is a low chance for a few sea breeze showers/storms this afternoon, but too low to include in TAFs. Turning to this evening, It's possible an MCS moves again out of Mexico crossing South Texas. Have Prob30 in the TAFs for this, but confidence isn't high. Have noted MVFR CIGS at times overnight. Saturday forecast is complicated with convection potential. Have noted this mainly in eastern TAFS, as there's potential it doesn't really start to develop until it's past LRD/COT, but may need to consider adding it later if things become more clear.

MARINE

Issued at 146 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Gentle to moderate E-SE winds will prevail today through the weekend over the waters. Brief periods of gusty and erratic winds (and elevated seas) will be possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Thunderstorm chances will be high (60-80%) Saturday and Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 76 84 73 85 / 20 80 60 60 Victoria 72 83 69 83 / 20 90 60 70 Laredo 73 86 71 88 / 20 60 30 20 Alice 73 84 70 85 / 20 80 60 40 Rockport 78 83 75 84 / 20 80 70 70 Cotulla 71 85 69 87 / 20 60 40 20 Kingsville 74 84 71 85 / 20 80 50 50 Navy Corpus 78 85 76 85 / 20 80 70 60

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Monday evening for TXZ229>234-239>247- 342>347-442-443-447.

GM...None.