textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 132 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

- Moderate Rip Current Risk through Thursday

- Locally heavy rainfall, small hail, gusty winds possible along and behind a cold frontal passage Saturday into Sunday

- Above normal temperatures continue through the work week, transitioning to below normal Sunday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

The late-week pattern will be fairly rinse and repeat with breezy low-lvl southeasterly flow prevailing, supporting continued warm conditions. High temperatures on Thursday and Friday will range from near 80 over the immediate coast to the mid to upper 90s over the Rio Grande Plains. Overnight lows will be quite muggy likely remaining in the 70s over the most of the area. Overnight and morning stratus (gradually scattering out in the afternoon) along with low chances (~10-20%) resulting from streamer showers can be expected each day through the period.

The forecast will trend more interesting this weekend into early next week as a cold front moves through the area late Saturday into Sunday. The surface frontal passage should occur late Saturday into early Sunday morning which will bring a chance of thunderstorms to the area. Given the displacement of the upper- lvl wave and stronger wind fields to our north the severe threat doesn't seem particularly elevated, but given we are still 4 days out we will need to monitor as we head into the window where higher-resolution guidance becomes available.

Beyond the initial sfc. frontal passage, rain chances will linger into Sunday, particularly if the 925-850mb boundary hangs up near the area during the day on Sunday in response to a frontal wave attempting to develop just south of the area. This solution would support continued moderate-heavy stratiform rain along the mid-lvl boundary and is championed by the GFS and UKMET while the ICON/CMC are more progressive with the boundary aloft (the EC is more of an intermediate solution). The storm total QPF is 1-2 inches (between Saturday PM and Monday AM) area-wide and is in line with the global ensemble means. Uncertainty in the precipitation forecast is relatively high as totals will depend upon both the more convective precipitation along the surface frontal passage along with the additional rainfall behind the surface front on Sunday.

High temperatures will decrease noticeably behind the front on Sunday with highs struggling to reach 70 both Sunday and Monday. Although temperatures will warm heading into the middle of next week this warm-up should be fairly slow as low-lvl winds remain out of the east/north-east.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon. A return of MVFR stratus is likely this evening into the overnight period over the Coastal Plains terminals with MVFR conditions spreading into KCOT and KLRD Thursday morning. There is a medium (30%) chance of IFR ceilings developing early Thursday morning. Breezy southeasterly winds gusting 25 to 30 kts will persist through the afternoon, with elevated (15-20 kt) winds persisting through the evening.

MARINE

Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Moderate to fresh southeasterly winds will generally persist through the upcoming weekend. A period of fresh to strong winds is expected tonight into early Thursday morning and a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for that period. Seas will generally run 4-6 ft through early Saturday morning. Isolated showers can be expected through the end of the week with higher rain chances expected over the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Minimum relative humidity values are expected to increase to just above 30% over the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains through the remainder of the week as breezy southeasterly flow prevails. Rain chances will be in the 10-20% range through the end of the week, with high chances (80%) of > 0.1 inch rainfall with a cold front and associated storm system this weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 72 84 71 84 / 10 10 10 10 Victoria 70 84 69 85 / 10 20 0 10 Laredo 72 97 73 97 / 0 10 20 0 Alice 70 91 70 90 / 0 0 10 0 Rockport 72 82 73 82 / 20 10 10 10 Cotulla 70 93 72 93 / 0 20 20 10 Kingsville 71 89 70 88 / 0 0 10 0 Navy Corpus 72 79 73 80 / 10 10 10 20

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ231- 232-236-237-250-255-270-275.