textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 622 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

- A weak cold front will move through the area tonight into early Saturday morning bringing a chance of showers and a brief cool down to near normal temperatures for Saturday.

- Elevated fire conditions return to the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

A weak cold front, currently positioned over Central Texas, will shift south through the area tonight through early Saturday morning. To say this front is lacking upper-lvl support would be an understatement as a 587-588 H5 ridge will remain entrenched just upstream the area over the Texas Big Bend region. The close proximity of the ridge will keep any along-frontal moisture pooling quite shallow (generally confined to 850mb and below), and thus rain chances will be limited to the 15-30% range with forecast QPF of only a few hundredths. The 925mb boundary will linger near the area through most of the day on Saturday maintaining low cloud cover in place along with low-end (15-25%) shower chances. High temperatures will run in the low to mid 70s which are near to just below normal for late March.

Unfortunately the brief cool down will be short lived as the postfrontal high rapidly shifts east by Sunday, with warm southeasterly flow returning and then strengthening into the middle of next week as an area of low pressure develops over the Central US. Although the (seemingly eternal) SW US ridge will shift east of the area by next week, the synoptic pattern over the CONUS (particularly the northern stream) will not be very amplified, with a mid-week frontal system progged to stall north of the area. Therefore warm (5-10 degrees above normal), dry, and breezy conditions can be expected for the last days of March and the first days of April.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

VFR conditions expected to continue through the evening ahead of a cold front. Behind the cold front, CIGs are expected to lower to MVFR overnight into Saturday morning, then lift to VFR by late morning. CIGs are expected to continue through Saturday afternoon, but above 3500ft. Winds behind the front are expected to shift to the north with gusts up to 30 knots possible across COT and LRD. Winds are expected to be gusty across the eastern TAFs as well with gusts 20-25 knots. Winds continue to relax Saturday morning, then veer to the northeast and east through the day. There is a low (10-25%) of light showers across mainly the LRD area with less chance across the east, but not expecting aviation impacts from any isolated showers that develop.

MARINE

Issued at 129 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

A gentle to moderate south to southeast flow will continue this afternoon. A cold front will pass through the waters late tonight shifting winds to the northeast on Saturday with a period of fresh winds developing late Saturday morning through the afternoon. There is a medium chance (30-40%) chance of brief Small Craft Advisory conditions developing in this time frame. A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) east to southeast flow returns by Saturday night and continues into next week. There is a 20-40 percent chance of showers associated with the cold front over the coastal waters and extending to the open gulf waters late tonight into Saturday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 129 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

A weak cold front will pass through the area tonight into Saturday morning which will actually result in a brief increase in min RHs as winds shift northeasterly after the frontal passage. There is a low (15-30%) chance of wetting rains with the frontal passage through Saturday morning although chances of amounts above 0.05" are very low. Otherwise warm and dry conditions will return with MinRHs dropping below 30% by Sunday and persisting over the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country into early next week as breezy SErly flow develops. This combined with dry fuels will support enhanced fire weather conditions over the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains through much of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 62 74 63 82 / 20 10 0 10 Victoria 59 74 56 82 / 10 10 0 0 Laredo 62 73 63 89 / 30 10 10 0 Alice 60 75 59 85 / 20 10 0 10 Rockport 63 75 64 79 / 10 10 0 0 Cotulla 60 71 59 88 / 10 10 0 0 Kingsville 60 77 60 85 / 20 10 0 10 Navy Corpus 66 73 66 77 / 20 10 0 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.