textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 122 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

- Marginal to Slight risk of flash flooding through tonight

- Moderate risk of heat-related impacts through next week, heat indices 100-110

DISCUSSION

Issued at 122 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

A near stationary mid-level low over the northern Brush Country today, ushering in PWATs over 2.25", has set up the stage for showers and thunderstorms across the Coastal Plains. Therefore, the flash flooding risk has increased to a slight (level 2 of 4) over much of the Coastal Plains through tonight, with additional rounds of heavy rain expected and rainfall rates up to 3"/hr. The already saturated soils from recent rainfall will lead to greater runoff and quick urban and small stream flooding. The area of north-central San Patricio County around Sinton has up to 5" radar estimated rainfall from this morning. Increased cloud cover and rain chances have led to lower temperatures, bringing a slight relief to the intense afternoon heat. Although there may be a lull in heavy rain, breaks in clouds this afternoon can revive convection and advect from the south. Rain chances will linger but decrease tonight into Sunday as the mid-level low gets pinched southward and a mid-level ridge builds over far West Texas into Mexico.

Moisture will start to decrease Sunday as the aforementioned low shifts southward, but the lingering PVA axis along with the seabreeze still warrants a low to medium chance (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms over the Coastal Plains. The ridge will then dominate and be the driver in our weather through the rest of next week, leading to warm and rain-free conditions with max afternoon heat indices ranging from 100-110 degrees. I can't rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm along the seabreeze with PWAT values hovering around or just below normal. Temperatures look to be steady with highs in the 90s and lows in the mid to upper 70s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 122 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

A mix of flight rule conditions spread across South Texas early this afternoon. A mid-level low swirling over the northern Brush Country has brought in scattered showers and storms over the Coastal Plains, with light showers wrapping around behind it. IFR ceilings have been observed over the Rio Grande, impacting LRD. Whereas sites east have been bouncing between MVFR/VFR ceilings depending on direct terminal impacts from storms or not. Additional convection is advecting northward from Deep South Texas and will likely influence conditions this afternoon into evening. Winds have occasionally gusted from 25-35 knots with the strongest storms. MVFR ceilings will prevail overnight across much of South Texas, and PROB30s have been included for the low to medium chance of showers lingering late tonight into Sunday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 122 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

A gentle to moderate southeasterly breeze (BF 3-4) will continue through this afternoon and evening, before strengthening to moderate late tonight. A moderate to fresh south to southeasterly breeze (BF 4-5) will dominate through next week, with a period of advisory conditions possible Sunday through Monday as sustained winds of 20 knots or greater are more likely. Low to medium rain chances continue through Sunday, then rain-free conditions for the remainder of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 80 90 81 92 / 40 20 0 0 Victoria 77 91 79 92 / 40 30 0 0 Laredo 77 95 78 98 / 40 10 0 0 Alice 77 92 77 95 / 40 10 0 0 Rockport 82 91 83 92 / 50 30 0 0 Cotulla 76 94 78 97 / 40 10 0 0 Kingsville 78 91 79 94 / 40 10 0 0 Navy Corpus 83 90 84 90 / 40 20 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.