textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 512 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

- Dangerous swimming conditions ahead of front, HIGH risk of rip currents tonight through Saturday

- Cold front Sunday morning with reinforcing surge of high pressure Monday night into Tuesday morning

- Low (20-40%) chance of showers Friday through Friday night, increases to moderate (40-60%) Saturday through Monday, greatest chances over Victoria Crossroads

- Low chance of freezing temperatures early morning Monday through Wednesday from Victoria to La Salle counties

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1231 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Surface high pressure moving eastward into the SE CONUS returning moist onshore flow in combination of a passing mid-level shortwave, will allow for a low chance (20-40%) of showers today, mainly over the Brush Country. There is little instability, therefore I left thunderstorms out until we get more CAPE Saturday when moisture builds over the 75th percentile and rain chances (30-60%) focus over the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Bend. Southeast Texas brushing into the Victoria Crossroads does have a marginal risk for strong to severe storms ahead of the front. Strong onshore flow will create dangerous swimming conditions along the Middle Texas Coast tonight and Saturday, warranting a HIGH risk of rip currents.

Our next cold front is well on track to surge through South Texas early Sunday morning, with the latest NAM showing faster progression than global models. Ahead of the front Saturday night is when we'll experience our greatest and most widespread shower and thunderstorm chances, 40-85% chance, west to east respectively. Once the front passes, much drier and colder air will filter in, resulting in below normal temperatures heading into the work week. Mid-level disturbances along with isentropic lift promoted from a surface low developing over the northwest Gulf, will keep cloudy skies intact and medium shower and thunderstorm chances through Monday.

Cold air advection, cloudy skies, and rain chances will limit high temperatures considerably early in the work week. Highs on Monday will likely only extend into the 50s, and 55-65 degrees on Tuesday as we get breaks in cloud coverage. Early morning low temperatures Monday through Wednesday will likely reach the mid to upper 30s over our northern counties from La Salle to Victoria, whereas the coast will experience low to mid 40s. It is worth noting that the 01Z NBM run shows a low to medium (30-50%) chance of freezing temperatures being met from Victoria to McMullen each morning. This is a notable jump compared to earlier runs 24 hours ago. But I have VERY LOW confidence in this freezing potential, I'm doing my best to find where NBM is grabbing these chances and I don't see any ensemble probabilities of the GFS or ECMWF that show any chances of freezing temperatures, the only ensemble solution that shows anything is the CMC and that is only a 20-30%. The NBM mean is even warmer than the NBM 75th percentile, so there are more solutions of cooler temperatures but still very warm solutions that skews the mean. The 90% confidence interval contains a 10-15 degree spread for minimum temperatures, but as long as we stay cloudy, I struggle to see any efficient cooling and below freezing dewpoints to cause freezing conditions.

A reinforcing surge of high pressure will push through late Monday night into Tuesday morning, diminishing rain chances temporarily. Surface high pressure will extend east of Texas heading into the middle of next week, returning onshore flow and a gradual warming trend. High temperatures creep back into the 70s by next Wednesday- Thursday, with lows Wednesday night from the mid 50s to low 60s. Rain chances also return mid to late next week due to an approaching cold front.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 512 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Overnight's cloud deck will persist through the TAF period. While CIGs remain in VFR territory across the Victoria Crossroads through the end of the TAF cycle, locations to the west will see MVFR CIGs by the afternoon. KALI/KCOT/KLRD have lower probabilities of hit or miss showers so PROB30s have been included for that. Winds will be out of the southeast at 15-20 kt gusting near 25 kts. Winds diminish to near 10 kts by the end of the TAF cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1231 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) easterly flow early this morning will strengthen out of the southeast later this morning, causing a fresh to strong breeze to persist through Saturday night. A Small Craft Advisory will remains in effect Friday through Saturday. There is high confidence a strong cold front will pass through early Sunday morning, leading to strong to near Gale (BF 6-7) north to northeasterly winds in the wake, diminishing to fresh to strong (BF 5-6) Sunday night into Tuesday. Low rain chances today will increase to a medium to high chance of 50-90% Saturday through Monday, then decrease to a low chance Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1231 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Minimum relative humidity will remain above 30% into the middle of next week. A low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms Friday through Monday, with greatest chances Saturday night ahead of a cold front, especially over the Victoria Crossroads. A strong cold front will pass through early Sunday morning with a reinforcing surge of high pressure on Tuesday. Below normal temperatures dominate into the middle of next week following the cold front Sunday morning with onshore flow returning by Tuesday shortly before another cold front pushes through mid to late next week. Elevated fire weather conditions are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 75 67 81 51 / 10 30 30 70 Victoria 73 62 79 46 / 10 40 60 80 Laredo 74 67 81 54 / 40 10 0 10 Alice 75 64 83 50 / 20 30 20 50 Rockport 75 68 80 51 / 10 40 50 80 Cotulla 70 64 80 51 / 40 30 0 20 Kingsville 75 65 83 51 / 20 30 20 50 Navy Corpus 75 70 79 56 / 20 40 40 80

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Saturday afternoon for TXZ345-442-443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CST Saturday for GMZ231-232-236-237.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Saturday for GMZ250-255-270- 275.