textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 140 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

- Medium (30-50%) chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight into early morning hours Wednesday

- Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms over western Brush Country tonight

- Elevated fire weather conditions over Brush Country through this weekend

- Confidence increasing in an abnormally strong cold front early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A dryline currently stretching across Northwest to West Texas will continue to slowly move eastward through tonight, bringing along a slight to enhanced severe threat for much of Central Texas. Although more favorable conditions will remain north of our area, there remains a marginal severe risk (level 1 of 5) over the western Brush Country for convection that fires up ahead of the dryline over Mexico then moving over into Webb and La Salle counties. Confidence is low but best timing looks to be between 7pm and midnight. Medium shower and thunderstorms chances (30-50%) will continue through the mid-morning hours on Wednesday over the Coastal Plains before the dryline moves east of the area late Wednesday afternoon, followed by the actual cold front bringing in stronger northerly winds in the wake Wednesday night. In fact, low temperatures are forecast to drop into the 40s inland early Friday morning.

Stronger winds and drier air causing relative humidity to dip below 30% in the afternoons over the Brush Country, will pose an elevated fire weather risk into early next week. After Wednesday, no rain chances are in the forecast into early next week. Although onshore flow returns and a strong warming trend will dominate Friday through Sunday, models are in fairly good agreement with a strong cold front pushing through South Texas Sunday night into Monday. Moisture will struggle to return to normal before the front next week, therefore do not contain mentionable rain chances.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Outside of VCT under MVFR CIGs, VFR conditions prevail across South Texas early this afternoon. Southeasterly winds will remain strong this afternoon, sustained around 25 knots gusting to around 35 knots over the Coastal Plains. Winds will remain elevated at 15-20 knots overnight with rain chances increasing as convection develops ahead of a dryline before a strong cold front pushes southward Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Rain chances will be best over the northern area and periods of LLWS over the Brush Country. Ceilings will likely drop to MVFR/IFR across the Coastal Plains after 02Z and persist through mid- morning Wednesday.

MARINE

Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Fresh to strong breeze (BF 5-6) will continue through early Wednesday morning. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through 1 AM for all waters and through 7 AM Wednesday for the offshore waters. There is a low (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday as a prefrontal boundary or dryline pushes eastward. A cold front will surge southward Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing in strong northerly winds in the wake through Thursday morning, dropping to moderate to fresh Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. Additional Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 140 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A dryline will slowly push eastward tonight through Wednesday afternoon, before a strong northerly push of colder air surges through Wednesday night into Thursday morning. These offshore winds will bring in drier air, reducing relative humidity to less than 30% over the Brush Country, posing an elevated fire weather risk most afternoons through next Monday. But the recent rainfall over the Brush Country may help negate the severity of the fire weather threat. Onshore flow returns Friday before another abnormally strong cold front looks to pass through early next week Sunday night into Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 70 89 56 73 / 10 20 0 0 Victoria 68 83 50 71 / 20 40 10 0 Laredo 67 91 59 77 / 30 0 0 0 Alice 69 92 55 75 / 20 20 0 0 Rockport 70 86 56 74 / 10 30 0 0 Cotulla 65 89 54 75 / 60 10 0 0 Kingsville 69 90 56 74 / 10 10 0 0 Navy Corpus 70 84 58 70 / 10 20 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ270-275.