textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1128 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

- Overnight/early morning fog at times through next week.

- Elevated Fire Weather conditions possible at times into next week, mainly across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country.

- Increasing rain chances mid week and next weekend?

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1128 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Light patchy morning fog will give way to partly cloudy skies by early afternoon. Late night and early morning fog will be possible at times through the period. However, winds will be elevated keeping the airmass mixed, thus patchy fog and visibilities generally above 4SM. Otherwise, unseasonably warm conditions will continue into next week with temperatures remaining around 10-15 degrees above normal.

Rain chances will remain very low through Tuesday due to a mid to upper level high pressure system over Mexico. Models have been consistent with the high pressure shifting east Monday through Tuesday as a deepening upper low moves southeastward from the Pacific NW. This will result in a southwest flow aloft with embedded short waves tracking across the region. A moderate to strong low level jet will usher deeper moisture into S TX with PWATs increasing to 1.2-1.5 inches by mid week. The deeper moisture, moderate instability, and a mid level short wave will be conducive for convective development, leading to a low to medium (20-30%) chance of rain by the middle of next week. Rain fall amounts are expected to less than 0.10 of an inch across the northern portions of S TX. Models are showing another potential for rain next weekend. The question is, will the cap be too strong for any rain?

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

MVFR to IFR CIGS noted at ALI and VCT currently, but satellite depiction indicates the band of lowest stratus is about to move past ALI and could see an improvement there for a few hours before MVFR CIGS likely develop once again. Think VIS reductions are largely not going to be an issue tonight with more wind just above the surface...and in some locations mixing down to the surface. Expect winds to remain a bit elevated - toward 10kt - through the night for all sites. VFR conditions return for the daytime Sunday before CIGS will begin to redevelop overnight. Winds again look like they will remain up a bit Sunday night to limit fog.

MARINE

Issued at 1128 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

A moderate (BF 4) breeze will continue into early next week. Onshore winds are expected to increase to a moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) breeze by Tuesday and continues through the remainder of the week. There is a 10-20% chance of showers Monday through Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1128 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Onshore flow will maintain elevated humidity across South Texas. However, fuels remain cured, thus elevated fire weather conditions are possible, especially Monday and Tuesday, across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country, when minimum RH values will be in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Winds are expected to remain below thresholds through Monday. However, winds may strengthen to critical levels by next Tuesday, but this will also increase minimum relative humidity values through the remainder of the week. Chances for rain will be low through next Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 80 65 82 66 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 81 60 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 90 64 92 65 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 86 62 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 78 65 79 67 / 0 0 0 10 Cotulla 89 63 90 63 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 84 63 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 75 66 76 68 / 0 0 10 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.