textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

- Temperatures gradually warm to above normal by middle of the week.

- Low rain chances Monday-Wednesday across S TX. Higher chances across the coastal waters.

- Minor coastal flooding will remain possible through next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Coolest temperatures this season are expected later this morning with lows in the upper 40s to 50s across interior portions of S TX and around 60 to mid 60s across the barrier islands. Cool temperatures, light winds and increasing clouds are forecast through the afternoon, then a gradual warming trend is expected through the upcoming week. Temperatures are forecast to be above normal by the middle of the week as a mid/upper level ridge begins to build across S TX.

As for rain chances, moisture is forecast to increase across the area as winds become more onshore. PWATs are progged to increase to 1.5-1.9 inches through Monday. This moisture combined with a mid level short wave tracking northeast across S TX will bring a low chance of showers to the coastline south of Port Aransas by Monday, with higher chances over the coastal waters. However, most areas across S TX will remain dry. Low chances continue Tuesday along the coast then spread west across the southern Coastal Bend to the southern Brush Country on Wednesday. Models indicate mid level ridging becomes dominate and PWATs decrease to less than 1 inch the latter part of the work week and into next weekend. Thus, little to no significant rain is expected Thursday and beyond.

Models indicate that a northeast to east wind will persist across the gulf waters through Thursday. Although the flow will generally be 5-15 knots, the persistent direction and swell periods around 8 seconds could lead to minor coastal flooding during times of high tide. P-ETSS indicates that tide levels will remain below the 2ft MSL threshold, thus confidence is low, but will continue to monitor trends.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with light and variable winds.

MARINE

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

A moderate to occasionally fresh (BF 4-5) northeast to east breeze can be expected through the middle of the week. Low to medium chance of showers Monday through Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Oct 18 2026

Dry and cool conditions will continue today with a gradual warming trend through the week. RH values will range from 25-35% across South Texas this afternoon. However, winds will be light limiting the threat for fire weather conditions. The ERC is forecast to remain below the 75th percentile and the fuel dryness levels are expected to be normal with spotty dry areas through Tuesday. As winds become more easterly, minimum RH values will increase through the work week further limiting the threat for fire weather conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 77 63 80 67 / 0 0 10 0 Victoria 78 55 82 59 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 76 60 84 66 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 77 59 81 64 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 79 66 82 69 / 0 0 10 0 Cotulla 76 58 81 63 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 77 61 81 66 / 0 0 10 0 Navy Corpus 76 69 80 73 / 0 0 20 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ345- 442-443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT early this morning for GMZ250-255-270-275.