textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

- Low to medium (20-40%) chance for showers and thunderstorms Monday, will increase to a medium to high (40-70%) chance midweek

- Increasing concern for minor coastal flooding during high tide and rip currents through midweek due to full moon and greater swells

- Rain chances linger into Halloween weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

A few showers will continue over the Brush Country this afternoon and early evening, before tapering off later tonight as PWATs decrease with drier air infiltrating between 850-700mb. However, moisture advection will increase Monday, bringing low to medium (20- 40%) rain chances along the Coastal Bend.

Moisture continues to surge Tuesday, bringing PWATs near 2.0", close to the 99th percentile for this time of the year. A mid-level shortwave developing over the Texas Panhandle will cause PVA to drape over South Texas through midweek. This mid-level lift support combined with above normal moisture will warrant medium to high rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by a shift to the west towards the Rio Grande Plains on Thursday in coordination with the moisture axis and strengthening SW upper-level jet. Instability seems to be pretty limited with SBCAPE generally less than 800 J/kg but cap will weaken during the day and allow for a few rumbles of thunder mixed in. Total rainfall estimates through Thursday look to be less than an inch, with locally higher up to 2", most likely along the Coastal Bend. Given rainfall expected earlier in the week, the inland Coastal Plains to Brush Country are now in a marginal risk of flash flooding Thursday, with a slight introduced over the northern Rio Grande Plains.

A series of additional shortwaves look to follow heading into the weekend, which extends our rain chances (at least low rain chances) heading into Halloween night. We'll need to keep a close eye on this as our safety risk increases with many enjoying the outdoors. High temperatures are to remain in the 80s with lows in the mid to upper 60s.

Lastly, there is increasing concern for minor coastal flooding and rip currents along area beaches due to the full moon occurring tonight followed by greater swells and persistent east to southeasterly flow. High tide will likely occur during the afternoon hours, with P-ETSS nearing 2.0 ft MSL at Aransas Pass, signaling potential minor coastal flooding across various areas of the Middle Texas Coast. We will near it this afternoon, wouldn't be surprised if an Advisory will be needed with short notice, but more likely starting tomorrow.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 626 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

A few showers may pop-up through this evening mainly across ALI and moving NW, but rain chances are low. Have included PROB30 for showers and MVFR conditions at CRP/ALI beginning tomorrow morning through the end of the TAF period. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail.

MARINE

Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) east to southeasterly flow will persist through this week, with seas generally between 3-5 feet. We could see slightly higher seas of 6-7 feet over the offshore waters Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Medium to high shower and thunderstorm chances start Monday and will continue through Wednesday, before decreasing to low chances Thursday into the upcoming weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions are not anticipated through the period. Minimum RH values above 30%, along with increasing moisture and rainfall chances early in the week, will limit fire weather concerns. Widespread wetting rainfall is possible Tuesday, particularly across the eastern portions of South Texas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 67 82 69 82 / 0 40 60 60 Victoria 61 84 65 82 / 0 0 30 50 Laredo 67 87 68 87 / 10 0 10 0 Alice 64 83 67 82 / 10 30 40 60 Rockport 69 82 71 82 / 10 40 60 60 Cotulla 64 85 66 84 / 10 0 10 30 Kingsville 64 83 67 82 / 10 30 40 70 Navy Corpus 72 81 73 81 / 10 50 60 70

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.