textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 119 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

- Moderate risk of heat-related impacts through next week, afternoon heat indices of 100-108

- Very low rain chances return latter half of the week, mainly along seabreeze over the inland Coastal Plains

- Saharan dust may cause hazy conditions at times into early Tuesday morning

DISCUSSION

Issued at 119 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

No significant changes from the previous forecast. Our weather will remain controlled under the southwestern edge of a mid-level ridge centered over the east-central CONUS through this work week. Mostly rain-free conditions with max temperatures in the 90s along with heat indices of 100-108 are expected through this weekend. The ridge begins to break apart and weaken latter half of the week, allowing for shortwaves to ride the southern edge and increase moisture across the area to above normal with PWATs between 1.75-2.00". This increase in moisture and lesser subsidence will allow for very low shower and thunderstorm chances (5-15%) to return along the seabreeze over the Coastal Plains the latter half of the week.

Model discrepancies of the synoptic flow and rain chances become more apparent early next week Sunday into Monday. Various solutions are shown in relation to the progression of the main mid to upper level trough stretching from Central Plains into the Great Lakes. The GFS wants to develop a cut-off low over Mexico, the ECMWF keeps the main trough intact with a shortwave over the ARKLATEX region, and the CMC brings the trough all the way down to the Texas Coast. All in all to say that there is little confidence on the setup early next week, keeping rain chances below 15%.

Dust aerosol optical thickness forecast from NASA/GMAO shows notable dust concentration moving over South Texas this afternoon into early Tuesday morning. Haze has been thick enough to lead to occasional reductions in visibility at a few sites along the coast. The increase in dust can heighten allergies and respiratory issues.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 119 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Breezy south to southeasterly winds with of 15-20 with gusts up to 30 knots continues through this afternoon, strongest over LRD and CRP. The LLJ will be more confined to the Brush Country, leading to prevailing MVFR ceilings over LRD/COT overnight, and TEMPOs elsewhere. Included MVFR vsby over ALI/VCT mainly due to persistence and similar wind conditions early tomorrow morning. Winds decrease to around 10 knots tonight but are expected to ramp back up to 10-15 knots with gusts around 20 knots near the end of the forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 119 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect over the bays and nearshore waters through this evening for winds around 20 knots. Afterwards, a moderate to fresh breeze (BF 4-5) tonight will weaken to a gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) Tuesday through this upcoming weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 78 91 78 91 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 76 93 76 94 / 0 0 10 10 Laredo 77 99 76 99 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 75 93 75 94 / 0 0 0 10 Rockport 81 91 81 91 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 75 97 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 76 91 76 91 / 0 0 0 10 Navy Corpus 81 89 81 89 / 0 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ231-232- 250.