textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 519 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

- Marginal risk of strong to severe storms and flash flooding early this morning for the Victoria Crossroads and northern Coastal Bend

- Medium to high chance for showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of front early this morning, additional chances late tonight through Monday

- Near freezing wind chills early Tuesday morning from Live Oak to Victoria counties

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1208 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

The cold front is currently moving southward stretched W to ENE across the Hill Country south of San Antonio into Southeast Texas. Latest CAM guidance shows a slightly later progression through South Texas, mainly between 2-8 AM early this morning. Ahead of and along the front, there is a medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms, with an environment marginally conducive for strong to severe storms mainly focused over the Victoria Crossroads. It's been a slow and dry start of the overnight hours, but do expect convection to increase over the next couple of hours. There is a marginal risk of severe storms, capable of producing large hail and damaging winds, as well as flash flooding with high rain rate slow moving cells. Farther westward, the environment is more capped and will struggle to tap into any instability capable of producing strong to severe storms.

A lull in rain chances is expected in the wake of the cold front Sunday afternoon, before medium to high rain chances return late tonight through Monday as a surface low develops over the northwest Gulf. The proximity of the boundary and low inducing moist isentropic lift, in combination of a more amplified mid-level shortwave, warrants medium to high rain chances. Rain chances diminish once again Monday night as a reinforcing surge of high pressure pushes through. Surface high pressure shifts eastward thereafter, returning onshore flow Wednesday along with a coastal trough. The coastal trough will remain intact ahead of our next cold front passage late in the work week Thursday - Friday, allowing for medium (40-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms to persist until the passage. This late week front isn't in as good of model agreement, nor look as strong as this morning's, and therefore kept low chances of showers and thunderstorms to close out the week.

Below normal temperatures are expected Sunday through Tuesday, with highs mainly in the 50s to the lower 60s and lows in the 40s, with the exception of early Tuesday morning in the upper 30s over northern counties. More seasonal-like temperatures are expected mid to late in the work week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 519 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

The cold front will continue moving south through the region this morning. Ahead of the front winds will be out of the S at 5-10 kts but behind the front winds will rapidly switch to be more out of the N at 15-20 kts gusting as high 30 kts. Rain will be scattered in coverage with the cold front passage, but remain dry throughout most of the day. After 06Z, rain returns to most terminals, dropping MVFR CIGs down to IFR by the end of the TAF cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1208 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

A fresh (BF-5) south to southeasterly breeze will quickly change north to northeasterly and strengthen to 20-30 knots in the wake of a cold front later this morning, mainly between 4-7 AM. There is a marginal risk for strong to severe storms ahead of the front, capable of large hail and damaging winds, mainly north of Port Aransas. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Sunday night, before a moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) northerly breeze takes over. Rain chance increase to a medium to high (50-75%) chance tonight through Monday night. By Monday night, high pressure surges in bringing with it drier air and reduced rain chances through midweek. The surge of high pressure will also return a strong northerly breeze through Tuesday morning. Onshore flow returns briefly midweek. Medium to high chances of showers and thunderstorms return mid-to-late in the week in association with our next frontal system.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1208 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Minimum relative humidity will remain above 40% through this next week along with below normal temperatures Sunday through Tuesday following a strong cold front early this morning. Medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast through Monday in association with the frontal passage as well as the formation and subsequent stalling of a surface low off the coast. Additionally, north-northeasterly winds will increase to 15-25 mph behind the front. A brief lull in rain chances is expected after a reinforcing surge of high pressure pushes through late Monday night into Tuesday, but low to medium rain chances return Wednesday through Friday as additional disturbances arrive. There are no elevated fire weather concerns at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 61 45 53 45 / 40 50 70 20 Victoria 54 43 51 39 / 30 40 80 10 Laredo 61 46 58 49 / 10 40 20 10 Alice 60 44 53 44 / 20 60 60 10 Rockport 62 48 56 47 / 40 50 80 20 Cotulla 56 45 55 44 / 10 30 30 10 Kingsville 62 45 54 45 / 30 50 60 10 Navy Corpus 64 51 57 50 / 50 60 70 30

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ231-232- 236-237.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ250-255-270- 275.