textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 157 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- Widespread moderate to heavy rain expected through mid-week.

- NHC continues to indicate a low chance (20%) of tropical development over the next 7 days for a broad area of low pressure just offshore of eastern Mexico.

- High rip current risk and minor coastal flooding expected Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Not a whole lot of change going forward in the forecast. The one thing to note is an increase in potential rainfall amounts. We're already seeing a noted influx in moisture with a PWAT on the evening sounding of 2.21", this is just shy of the daily max value of 2.25". We're not going to see that drop off much if any over the next couple of days as deep moisture continues to stream in. PWAT values between now and Tuesday night are forecast between 2.25 and 2.5" with some mind boggling higher values around 2.75". In addition to the abundant moisture, we'll have a surface front sagging into the area, this may or may not make it into the forecast area - recent runs have back off a bit, we'll also have daily sea breeze boundaries, and possibly the most notable, a weak low pressure in the lower and mid-levels. Current forecast has widespread 3-5 inches through the Coastal Plains from early Monday through Wednesday night. With the rainfall rates we will expect to see, there will almost certainly be localized higher totals. While flash flood guidance is fairly high 2-3" in 1-3 hours, rainfall rates likely exceeding 2" will cause problems, especially in more urban areas. We are currently blanketed with a slight ERO, but there is some potential to see that upgraded in the coming days, with the most concerning time being Monday and Tuesday (east).

Now that we've talked about the main story, the rest of the forecast will feature another round of scattered convection today. With light winds and the very high moisture, think tropical funnels could once again show up around the area, mainly in the morning hours before winds increase a bit in the afternoon.

In terms of temperatures, will be capped mainly below normal values thanks to the moisture levels and convection. By Thursday when the rain ends, do note a increase in 850 mb temps, and a warmer day then before dropping back a bit again for the weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 102 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Tonight expecting MVFR/VFR conditions to prevail with a few isolated showers. Tomorrow morning rain and thunderstorm chances increase to around 45% out west and 65-75% across eastern terminals through the afternoon and tapering off by evening. Low rain chances around 25-35% during the overnight hours. Accompanied by MVFR conditions. Looking ahead Sunday through Tuesday, there's a Slight risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding across most of South Texas terminals, this includes a 15% chance for excessive rainfall Sunday, increasing to around a 25% chance Monday and Tuesday.

MARINE

Issued at 157 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

A fresh onshore wind will continue especially south of Port Aransas tonight through Sunday morning before weakening back to a more moderate breeze Sunday afternoon through Monday. Winds will increase once again to fresh levels Tuesday into Wednesday. Seas will gradually subside from current levels through the day on Sunday. A small craft advisory is in effect through Sunday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms become likely through the early part of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 157 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low through the period due to increasing moisture, elevated relative humidity values, and increasing rain chances (moderate to high). Wet fuels and widespread cloud cover leading to cooler temps early next week should further limit fire weather potential.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 91 79 88 78 / 60 50 60 90 Victoria 91 77 88 75 / 60 50 70 80 Laredo 94 77 91 75 / 50 50 70 90 Alice 91 77 88 75 / 70 40 70 90 Rockport 92 81 90 80 / 70 60 60 90 Cotulla 94 77 90 74 / 40 40 80 80 Kingsville 90 78 87 76 / 60 50 70 90 Navy Corpus 89 81 88 80 / 60 60 70 90

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for TXZ345-442-443- 447.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ345- 442-443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ270- 275.