textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 231 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

- Marginal to Slight Risk of Severe Weather today through tonight accompanied by moderate rainfall chances

- Large hail and damaging winds remain the primary hazards

- Minor coastal flooding and High risk of rip currents along the Gulf-facing beaches through this evening

- Forecast confidence is lower than average regarding timing and severity of convection Sunday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

A moderately amplified mid-level pattern will evolve across the southern CONUS, characterized by a broad trough translating east across the Desert Southwest into Texas. An embedded shortwave will eject across South Texas Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, coinciding with increasing large-scale ascent. At the surface, low pressure developing over West Texas will induce a strengthening southerly flow across South Texas, promoting higher PWATs (~1.75- 1.90") which is above +2 standard deviations due as moisture advects into the region. The thermodynamic environment will become moderate to strongly unstable, with MLCAPE up to around 2000-2500 J/Kg, particularly west of Hwy 281. Effective Bulk shear around 30-40 knots will support organized convection.

SPC has included most of the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains under a Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather on Sunday with rest of the CWA under a Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5). Primary hazards include large hail and damaging winds. Despite the supportive environment considerable uncertainty exists with regard to timing, exact evolution and severity of storms. Regardless, widespread moderate chances exist for showers and thunderstorms. Please take proper precautions to be prepared including having multiple ways to receive warnings.

By Monday, subsidence behind this system should settle in for the remainder of the week promoting drier and quieter weather. While persistent low-level moisture lingers with PWATs likely remaining slightly above normal the lack of forcing is expected to keep chances of precipitation very low through the end of the week. After which, some models indicate another system could increase rain chances once again but discrepancy is high so more on this later, as we need to make it through this event first.

90s return to the forecast early in the work week followed by mid- 90s around midweek across the western half of the region with low to mid 80s elsewhere.

An increased rip current risk and minor coastal flooding to potentially continue to be an issue this upcoming week with a moderate to fresh onshore flow, swell periods around 7-8 seconds, 4- 6 foot wave heights and astronomical tides being a contributing factor as we approach a new moon on April 17th. Water yesterday has reached the dunes at some beaches mainly near Port Aransas but with lower swell heights and periods will hold of on issuing a Coastal Flood Advisory but will let the day shift monitor conditions and issue if necessary. Will keep the high rip current risk in the Rip Current Statement through this evening, after which a moderate risk is expected for tomorrow.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 231 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

MVFR conditions are expected to dominate this TAF cycle with ceilings mostly around 2k feet. There may be brief periods where some sites could see VFR while other dip as low as IFR. Rain chances increase tomorrow afternoon and continue the evening hours. Confidence is low as far as when the storms will develop, but any storm that does develop will have the potential to become strong to severe promoting hail and wind gusts to 60 mph.

MARINE

Issued at 231 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

A Moderate to Fresh (BF 4-5) onshore flow will persist through the period. Low to moderate Shower/thunderstorm chances increase today through tonight with the best chances near the coast followed by dry conditions the remainder of the week. Strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible with damaging winds and higher seas in and around storms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 231 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Low to moderate rain/thunderstorm chances across the region continue through Monday morning. The Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains are under a Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather today and this evening with rest of South Texas under a Marginal risk (level 1 out of 5). Strong winds and large hail will be the primary threats through this evening. Despite brief periods of 20 ft winds approaching 20 mph along the Coastal Bend each day, elevated minimum RH values around 40-60% inland and ERC values around the 20-25th percentile throughout much of the week will limit fire weather potential. Later in the week, RH values out west may drop to around 30% so will have to keep an eye on things. Currently, elevated fire weather conditions are generally not expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 81 72 83 72 / 40 30 10 0 Victoria 81 69 84 69 / 70 40 20 0 Laredo 88 72 91 72 / 30 30 10 10 Alice 84 70 87 70 / 50 40 10 0 Rockport 81 72 82 72 / 40 40 10 0 Cotulla 84 70 90 71 / 60 40 10 10 Kingsville 82 71 85 71 / 50 30 10 0 Navy Corpus 79 73 79 73 / 40 30 10 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ345-442-443- 447.

GM...None.