textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 451 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

- Slight Risk for Flash Flooding (level 2 of 4) for southern portions of the Coastal Bend; Flood Watch in effect through noon

- 20-40% chances of rain through Wednesday before cold front passage on Thursday

- Small Craft Advisory/High Rip Current Risk through this evening with a Coastal Flood Advisory through early Tuesday morning

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1225 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

The 500 hPa closed low will continue to fill in as it slowly gets absorbed back into the main storm track through the first half of the work week. CAM guidance (and more specifically the HRRR runs since this afternoon) continue to show the next wave of showers/thunderstorms forming off the surface trough analyzed across along the Rio Grande. The HRRR continues to show 1-3 inches generally from Duval County toward an area between Corpus Christi and Baffin Bay. Forecast rainfall totals greater than 4 inches through Monday afternoon generally will stay closest to the immediate coastline, though any training storm, or stronger convective storm, has the ability to produce these amounts. Rainfall over the last 24 hrs across the aforementioned area ranged from 5 to near 10 inches of rain. Needless to say, soils are saturated. With 2- 4 inch rainfall rates still in the forecast, it will not take long to get quick responses from small creeks and streams in the area. The latest 12 hr Rapid Onset Flooding hot spots highlight this area analyzed by the NWC (see Area Hydrologic Discussion #26), so things are primed for yet another messy morning commute. Many of the local school districts and local governments offices have already delayed openings given the higher risk for flash flooding, so delaying your commute, if able, is highly encouraged. For this reason, the WPC is continuing to place portions of this region under a Slight Risk for Flash Flooding (level 2 of 4).

At the upper levels, a subtropical jet streak redevelops downstream of the next trough moving into the WCONUS today. These jet dynamics will continue to bring enhanced vertical motion across South Texas while a surface boundary near the I-10 corridor remains draped across the area, resulting in continuing rain chances (20-40%) through mid-week.

By Wednesday night, the next cold front will move through, with the initial wind shift early Thursday morning and the reinforcing high pressure building in later Thursday morning. This will usher in lower dewpoints (low to mid-60s on Wednesday down to upper 40s/50s by Thursday night). While daytime temperatures will generally continue climb to the low to mid 70s, morning low temperatures Friday and Saturday morning will drop into the upper 40s in the Victoria Crossroads and across the northern Brush Country. By the end of the weekend, onshore flow returns, bringing back Gulf moisture and regulating temperatures to near-normal values by the upcoming week. While confidence in rain prospects for the end of the forecast is low, a similar upper-level pattern of a low closing off from the storm track over northwestern Mexico will place Texas back into a diffluent pattern resulting in increased rain chances for the upcoming weekend, but we'll see how deep this trough digs into that region before placing increased confidence on rainfall amounts.

Across our Gulf-facing beaches, the high rip current risk continues through this evening before becoming more of a moderate risk tonight and a low risk by Tuesday. Minor coastal flooding associated water levels approaching the 2.0 ft above MSL mark will continue through today's high tide cycle, with the overall coastal flooding risk decreasing through the latter half of the week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 451 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue across South Texas today. There could be periods of MVFR and even VFR conditions but generally expect IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibility to prevail through most of the day.

MARINE

Issued at 1225 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Fresh to strong (BF 5-6) easterly winds will trend lighter by Tuesday morning with seas decreasing from 5-6 ft to near 2 ft. Winds become variable on Wednesday ahead of the next cold front that will move through on Thursday. Behind the frontal passage, a fresh to strong northerly breeze develops that wanes by Thursday night. Low to medium rain chances expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1225 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Due to ongoing rain chances through Wednesday and relative humidity values above 40% across South Texas through the upcoming week, the fire risk will remain low.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 73 62 74 64 / 100 40 50 30 Victoria 67 56 73 60 / 90 40 30 30 Laredo 68 62 70 63 / 90 70 40 10 Alice 70 58 71 61 / 90 40 40 30 Rockport 75 63 77 65 / 100 30 30 40 Cotulla 65 58 69 59 / 90 70 40 30 Kingsville 73 60 74 62 / 100 40 50 30 Navy Corpus 75 69 76 69 / 100 40 50 40

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch until noon CST today for TXZ229>233-239>246-342>346- 442-443.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM CST Tuesday for TXZ245-342>347- 442-443-447.

High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ345-442-443- 447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ231- 232-236-237-250-255-270-275.