textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 607 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

- Moderate to Major Heat Risk for South Texas today and Wednesday

- Low Rain/thunderstorm chances Mid-week and Moderate chances in the latter half of the week with the next front

- Marginal threat (1 out of 5) for severe storms on Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A mid-level high centered south of Texas over central Mexico will continue to promote generally quiet weather conditions across South Texas through mid-week. This pattern will support mainly partly cloudy skies and above normal temperatures through the middle of the week. Meanwhile, several disturbances embedded within the mid-level flow across the western CONUS will gradually erode the ridge during the latter half of the week, allowing for a few shortwaves to result in PVA across the region. Combined with abundant moisture, have increased rain/storm chances for Wednesday to a low 20% chance. Most models have a front coming through on Friday with a moderate 50-75% chance of showers and thunderstorms, except for the NAM, which is sticking to it's guns, for a Wednesday FROPA across South Texas before stalling across the middle of our CWA.

Confidence in the evolution of these features remains somewhat low due to continued model discrepancies. However, if current trends hold, there should be sufficient lift and instability for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop across portions of South Texas by late Thursday into Friday. Otherwise, timing of storms could change, so please pay attention to the next few forecast cycles and be prepared for the possibility of severe weather as some of these storms could become strong to severe.

The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight much of South Texas in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening, as storms could move into the region with southern portions of the Coastal Bend excluded. The primary hazards would by damaging wind and large hail. In addition, there remains a low but non-zero chance for localized heavy rainfall, mainly across extreme northwestern La Salle county.

Temperatures through the first half of this week will remain well above normal, with highs generally in the mid 80s along the coast to around 100 degrees across the Brush Country. Heat index values will generally range from 105-110 with heat indices around 100 or less closer to the coast. A moderate to major heat risk will persist through Wednesday. Residents are strongly encouraged to practice heat safety, including staying hydrated. taking frequent breaks, and limiting outdoor exposure. Remember to check those backseats! For more information be sure to check out weather.gov/heatsafety.

Looking ahead toward the end of the week, after the cold front moves through South Texas, expect a shift to cooler and drier conditions, with highs dropping by Saturday to the 70s and overnight lows this weekend dipping back into the 50s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 607 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Hazy conditions will persist overnight and into the morning hours Wednesday, though visibility will generally remain at 6SM or greater. Expect cloud cover to continue to be MVFR, with periods of VFR early this evening. By late night and into the early morning hours, ceilings could briefly drop to IFR/LIFR for CRP and VCT.

MARINE

Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

A gentle to moderate onshore flow (BF 3-4) is expected through much of the work week but may become fresh (BF 5) at times. Winds will increase slightly ahead of an approaching cold front during the latter half of the week. Following frontal passage possibly on Friday, winds will shift northeast and increase to strong to near Gale (BF 6-7). Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to develop with gusts to near Gale accompanied by low to moderate rain and thunderstorm chances.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 130 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Generally fire weather concerns are not expected despite the hot temperatures during the first part of this week. A cold front towards the end of the week will result in windy conditions shifting out of the northeast but temperatures should cool down enough to mitigate elevated fire weather. Will keep an eye on trends and update as necessary if anything changes.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 75 89 73 86 / 0 10 10 10 Victoria 74 92 68 88 / 0 20 20 10 Laredo 77 100 73 94 / 0 20 20 0 Alice 74 95 72 91 / 0 20 20 10 Rockport 76 85 73 85 / 0 10 10 10 Cotulla 76 98 72 91 / 0 20 20 10 Kingsville 74 93 73 89 / 0 10 10 0 Navy Corpus 76 84 75 83 / 0 10 10 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.