textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 215 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

- Shower/Storm chances through Saturday leading to quick, heavy downpours

- Temperatures trend warmer and Moderate HeatRisk becomes more widespread through the upcoming week

- High Rip Current Risk Saturday/Monitoring Coastal Flooding Potential

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Latest mid-level water vapor imagery shows a cutoff low moving into the northwestern states of Mexico, bringing a diffluent pattern from the lee of the Sierra Madre Oriental ranges and out onto the plains of South Texas. This has allowed quite the cluster of storms on the Mexican side of the Rio Grande. Where storms have formed, are where they have remained as their isn't much in terms of a steering influence. Portions of the Rio Grande Plain have received some precipitation overnight, though this region has been on the periphery of the stratiform rain. CAMS generally have the cluster of storms slowly moving toward the northwest and more so into the Hill Country by sunrise.

Need not worry if you miss out on this rain as isolated to scattered showers will increase along the coastal plains after 0400 AM and continue moving inland through the mid-morning. With 2.00-2.30" PWATs feeding in from the Bay of Campeche, any stronger storm that develops will be capable of rainfall rates that can quickly lead to runoff moving rapidly into local streams/creeks, and even quicker stream responses if a storm parks itself over an area too long. For this reason, WPC has kept portions of South Texas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for flash flooding through tonight.

By Saturday, the aforementioned cutoff low will start filling in and moving toward the Texas Panhandle, along with the greatest synoptic- ascent motion. Consequently, rain chances for Saturday itself is lower than in previous forecasts (20-30% chances along the coastal plains). The Victoria Crossroads will have the greatest chances for shower/storm activity (30-50% chance). High pressure influence then settles in across the region through the upcoming week. While high pressure is in place, we'll see temperatures trend back up into 90s with a Moderate HeatRisk becoming more widespread. All that said, an isolated seabreeze shower can't be ruled out, but it won't wash out any outdoor plans beyond an hour. Remember to keep practicing heat safety when outdoors, hydrate, and take frequent breaks.

With respect to beach hazards, the persistent southeast wind and an increase in swell period over the next few days. Today there will be a Moderate rip current risk, with Saturday seeing an increase to a high rip current risk. Additionally, we will continue to monitor local beach cams for how high tide rolls the next two days. P-ETSS guidance continue to show the high-end of the probabilistic guidance above 1.5 ft above MSL for the Bob Hall Pier/Aransas Pass tide sensors concurrent with the increase in wave energy.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Under the vicinity of a storm reductions to MVFR can be expected. A mixed bag of VFR to MVFR CIGs will be expected through the period. Expect coastal isolated showers through the night into the morning hours. This was accounted for with PROB30 groups. Hi-res models continue to hint at the merging of storms W of KLRD and moving eastward into the Brush Country between 08-14Z. Will continue to monitor this as latest radar imagery supports this solution. SE winds pick up to 10-15 kt by Friday afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Expect gentle to moderate southeasterly winds with 3-4 ft seas. These increase to moderate to fresh southeast winds and 4-5 ft on Sunday. Expect low-end (20-40% chance) daily showers/thunderstorms through the weekend with lower chances for the upcoming week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 215 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

With rain chances through Saturday night, and recent rainfall over the last few weeks, the green-up continues. Combined with minimum relative humidity values remaining above 45%, the fire risk will remain low through the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 87 77 88 78 / 40 30 20 10 Victoria 86 73 86 75 / 50 30 50 10 Laredo 88 74 93 76 / 50 30 0 0 Alice 87 74 88 75 / 50 40 10 10 Rockport 89 79 89 81 / 20 30 30 20 Cotulla 87 73 91 76 / 60 40 10 10 Kingsville 87 75 88 77 / 40 30 20 10 Navy Corpus 87 79 88 81 / 40 30 20 20

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for TXZ345-442-443-447.

GM...None.