textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 114 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

- A cold frontal passage this morning will bring low to medium rain chances (20-40%).

- Medium to high chance (50-70%) of showers and storms Friday into Saturday. Some of these storms could bring locally heavy rainfall.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 114 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

A cold front will continue pushing south through the region early this morning, with the northeasterly wind shift already present at most of our zones at the time of writing, minus southeast portions of the Coastal Bend. The boundary is expected to clear the remainder of the CWA by sunrise. Most locations are expected to remain largely dry with the frontal passage, as stable post-frontal conditions and persistent capping should limit storm development despite abundant low-level moisture. One exception may occur across the Rio Grande Plains early this morning, where CAM guidance continues to suggest isolated thunderstorms developing after about 06Z. A conditional risk for a few strong to severe storms will exist should convection be able to overcome persistent capping. Moderate instability and decently strong shear would favor storms capable of producing large hail and locally damaging wind gusts.

Expect cooler and cloudier conditions today behind the front. Northeasterly flow and cloud cover should keep temperatures below normal for this time of year, reaching only the upper 70s to low 80s. Although the aforementioned boundary is forecast to remain stalled to our south, weak mid-level disturbances may interact will very high moisture for this time of year (PWATs just shy of 2.00") to generate isolated to scattered precipitation through the day today.

Attention the turns to Friday and Saturday as the boundary begins lifting northward as a warm front while a Baja upper low and associated mid-level shortwaves gradually shifts east. Confidence continues to increase that this time period will feature the greatest potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Moisture pooling ahead and north of the returning front, combined with strengthening large scale ascent and increasing mid-level flow will create a favorable environment for multiple rounds of precipitation. Rainfall processes appear highly sufficient, and WPC has highlighted our entire area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall on Friday due to the increasing threat for flash flooding, especially in areas that experience repeated rounds of storms.

The upper disturbance is expected to exit the region by Sunday, wt a more seasonable and drier pattern settling in for early next week. However, a weak secondary front may move through late Sunday into Monday, with low chances (~20%) for isolated precipitation remaining possible. Temperatures through the extended period will remain near seasonal normals, with highs ranging from the mid-80s to low 90s and lows mainly in the upper 60s to low 70s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 114 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions are currently prevailing this evening due to a mixture of lowered CIGs and haze from the smoke of agricultural burns down in Mexico. A return to primary MVFR and even brief IFR CIGs is then likely tonight through most of the day on Thursday as a cold front moves through the area. As the front pushes through, winds will transition from east-southeasterly to northeasterly, generally around 8-12 knots. Any precipitation in the TAF period will likely be limited and light. Overall precipitation potential remains low at this time, but have introduced -SHRA for LRD with only VCSH mentions elsewhere.

MARINE

Issued at 114 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) southeasterly breeze shifts to the northeast becoming moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) behind a cold front into this morning. Northeasterly flow shifts back east- southeasterly and weakens this weekend to become light to gentle (BF 2-3). Low to medium (20-50%) shower and thunderstorm chances will persist today through at least Saturday, with highest chances late Friday into Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 114 AM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Relative humidity values will generally remain at or above 35% through the forecast period. This, combined with sustained 20 foot winds less than 20 mph and Energy Release Components (ERCs) below the 40th percentile will preclude fire weather concerns. Rain chances are expected to return today and persist through Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 76 74 84 75 / 30 40 60 50 Victoria 77 68 81 70 / 20 30 70 60 Laredo 82 71 88 72 / 20 30 20 70 Alice 79 72 87 73 / 30 30 60 60 Rockport 77 74 85 76 / 30 40 60 50 Cotulla 78 68 84 70 / 20 30 30 60 Kingsville 77 73 86 74 / 30 40 60 50 Navy Corpus 76 76 83 77 / 30 40 50 40

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.