textproduct: Corpus Christi

UPDATE

Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

The main focus for the short-term period is the developing MCS in Central Texas which is progged to propagate south-southeastward down the instability axis late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Despite the nocturnal timing, warm southerly flow should maintain 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the convective line with DCAPE in the 1000-1500 J/kg range supporting a damaging wind threat, particularly given the strong system cold pool likely to develop. Additionally there are hints among the CAMs of a wake low develop behind the system, so that will be something to watch for Wednesday morning.

With the afternoon update, refined PoP timing as the convection looks to begin its southward push a little later which would favor the best timing window for storms from 1AM-7AM (progressing from NW to SE). Although rainfall totals of 1-2 inches can be expected with the passage of the system (even locally 2-3 inches), the progressive nature of the MCS will hopefully limit widespread hydro concerns.

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 717 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

- Slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Primary threat will be damaging winds.

- Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) to Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of Flash Flooding due to excessive rainfall tonight through Wednesday morning. Continued risk of heavy rainfall and flash and river flooding each day through at least Saturday

- Dangerous swimming conditions with a high risk of rip currents along the Middle Texas Coast through this week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Another shortwave will move into the region from Mexico tonight around midnight. This feature will interact with a cold front moving into the area that has been primed with moisture, thanks to a strong low level jet. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible tonight along with the potential for heavy rain. It should enter the Brush Country around midnight and move into the Coastal Plains to Coastal Bend around 03-06 AM tomorrow morning. Therefore, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted all of South Texas under a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms with damaging winds as the primary threat followed by hail. Likewise, with the soils primed from last nights MCS, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted the southern half of the CWA under Marginal Risk of Flash Flooding with a Slight Risk for the northern counties.

As we move further into the week, a series of shortwaves are expected to continue moving into the region producing periods of moderate to heavy through Sunday night. With that being said, the Weather Prediction Center has highlighted all of South Texas under a Marginal to Slight Risk of Flash Flooding Wednesday and Thursday and a Marginal Risk for all of South Texas Thursday and Friday. Current rainfall accumulations expected from tonight through Sunday night are 3.5-5" across the western half and 3.5-6" across the eastern half, with the highest total expected across the Victoria Crossroads. Some areas could see isolated higher amounts. Please continue to check the forecast for updated as the next few days evolve.

Persistent strong onshore flow with swell periods of 7-8 seconds warrants a high risk of rip currents, causing dangerous swimming conditions. These conditions will also lead to another threat for minor coastal flooding early tomorrow morning during high tide. We'll need to keep a close eye on webcams with how much wave runup we get, but confidence is low with the lack of buoy observations.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 606 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

MVFR stratus will begin to fill in over the coastal plains terminals in the 01 to 03Z timeframe. The main concern for the remainder of the TAF period will be a line of storms progged to move into the area from the north late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Currently 07 to 12Z looks to be the most probable time frame for direct terminal impacts, with strong winds (gusts in excess of 35 kts) and temporary visibility reductions the primary concerns. Winds will generally be out of the SE outside of gusty and erratic thunderstorm outflows.

MARINE

Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

A fresh breeze (BF 5) is expected to continue through this afternoon and into the early evening hours. Winds will relax to a moderate breeze (BF 4) Tuesday night and continue through the end of the work week. Medium chances (50-65%) for shower and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night through Friday night before increasing to higher chances (60-80%) Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 77 89 77 87 / 60 50 20 80 Victoria 73 87 73 84 / 70 50 20 90 Laredo 74 92 72 89 / 60 20 60 50 Alice 75 90 74 88 / 60 50 30 70 Rockport 78 89 78 88 / 70 50 20 80 Cotulla 72 89 72 87 / 60 40 70 70 Kingsville 77 89 76 87 / 50 30 30 70 Navy Corpus 79 86 78 86 / 50 40 20 80

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday afternoon for TXZ345-442- 443-447.

GM...None.