textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 540 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

- Warm day in store today with slightly elevated fire conditions

- Cold front late Sunday will bring critical fire conditions Monday and gale conditions across marine sites

- Below-normal temps Monday/Tuesday followed by a warming trend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

South Texas will remain under onshore flow through this weekend allowing our high temperatures to be well above-normal (10-15F above normal for locations like Laredo). Water temperatures will allow coastal zones to have highs in the upper 70s/low 80s with breezy winds 15-20 mph sustained. We remain in this warm sector of the develop low that'll move through the Central Plains with a cold front expected to move through late Sunday.

Before the cold front moves through, winds will shift to be west/southwesterly associated with a dry-line/pre-frontal boundary Sunday afternoon. This will drop min RH values in the 10-15% range but winds should be relatively weaker to the strong surge of the actual cold front late Sunday night. Normally, relative humidity values increase throughout the night leading to the day's relative humidity maxing out in the day. With this cold front, hourly relative humidity values struggle to increase above 30% across inland locations. This may be one of those situations were the Fire Weather Watch/Red Flag Warning start time may need to be considered to start at night time. We'll continue to discuss with the day shift and likely start issuing headlines as soon as this afternoon, especially since min RH values Monday afternoon will drop to 5-10%. Winds over land will likely warrant a Wind Advisory for most areas Monday morning at the same time, though wind will be decreasing throughout the afternoon. And this is just the fire weather concerns. Any Spring Breakers enjoying our local beaches and out across the Middle Texas Coast waters will need to be aware of the gale conditions in store in the wake of the cold front passage.

Onshore flow returns Tuesday allowing temperatures climb to above- normal values by the latter half of the upcoming week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 540 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Brief periods of patchy fog will be possible across the Coastal Plains through 14Z, leading to the potential for MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through today. Winds will increase late this morning, scouring out any fog. Low ceilings may begin to develop over the eastern sites by late in the TAF period, so have included MVFR ceilings beginning around 06Z.

MARINE

Issued at 156 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

A persistent moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) southeasterly wind will allow 3 ft seas today increase to 5-6 ft by Sunday afternoon. A strong cold front will push through late Sunday night/early Monday morning producing gale northerlies. Seas will increase to xx to xx ft. Conditions decrease to below strong (BF 6) with onshore winds returning Tuesday. A line of showers and thunderstorms associated with the cold front passage will be limited to the front leading with moderate chances (30-50%).

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 156 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

With Energy Release Component Values among the 70th-89th percentile spreading across the region this weekend and temperatures climbing through Saturday, our fire risk will remain slightly elevated. While synoptic winds will remain relatively weak, this will keep the fire risk for climbing further. However, a cold front on Sunday night will bring gusty winds in its wake Monday morning. RH values late Sunday night/early Monday morning will struggle to climb above 30% as a powerful surge of dry air moves into South Texas. Winds during this time will be at their strongest (gusting as high as 45 mph). Winds Monday afternoon will gradually decrease with RH values dropping to as low as 5-10%. As such, a Red Flag Warning will likely be needed Monday, but it may start as early as the overnight hours given the lack of the recovery of RH values. Onshore flow will allow Min RH's Tuesday afternoon to drop to 15-20% thus keeping the fire risk elevated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 82 67 93 47 / 0 0 0 10 Victoria 82 64 88 42 / 0 0 0 10 Laredo 95 66 98 50 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 90 64 97 45 / 0 0 0 10 Rockport 80 68 84 47 / 0 0 0 10 Cotulla 92 64 96 45 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 87 65 97 47 / 0 0 0 10 Navy Corpus 77 69 82 50 / 0 0 0 20

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.