textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 631 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

- Slightly cooler today behind a weak cold front.

- Elevated fire conditions return to the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains early next week.

- A low (10-20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Isolated showers can be expected along and behind a cold front through the morning hours with rainfall amounts generally less than 0.05". The dome of high pressure aloft is expected to finally shift east today. In it's place, an inverted trough will track northwest around the southwestern periphery of the high. This will result in a deep southerly flow across S TX which will gradually usher slightly deeper moisture into the area through the middle of next week. Models forecast PWATs to increase to around 1.5 inches. This deeper moisture combined with embedded short waves in a quasi-zonal flow aloft, and weak instability by Wednesday will be conducive for isolated convective development. Latest model runs indicate a low (10-20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms next Wed-Thu with rainfall totals of 0.01-0.20" possible. Unfortunately not enough to end the S TX drought.

Seasonal temperatures expected today in the wake of the cold front. However, this will be brief as temperatures quickly warm back up by Sunday. Above normal temperatures will persist through the upcoming week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

MVFR ceilings drape across South Texas and the Hill Country early this morning behind the cold front with occasional breaks to VFR. We'll see VFR conditions prevail over the Coastal Plains first by 18Z with MVFR ceilings lingering over the Brush Country (LRD/COT) until the mid-afternoon. North to northeasterly winds of 10-15 knots will weaken later today then shift back southeasterly tonight at about 5 knots. Expecting more MVFR ceilings to develop after 06Z, however latest guidance shows a low to medium (20-50%) chance for IFR ceilings as well.

MARINE

Issued at 126 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

A fresh (BF 5) northeasterly breeze will develop today in the wake of this morning's cold front. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 7 AM to 3 PM. A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) east to southeast flow returns tonight and continues into next week. There is a 20-40 percent chance of showers associated with the cold front over the coastal waters and extending to the open gulf waters this morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 126 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

This afternoons RH values will be higher than the past several days due to cooler temperatures. North to northeast winds behind this morning's cold front will be gusty through the morning hours, but will relax through the afternoon and veer to the east by this evening. Isolated showers will be possible this morning with rainfall amounts generally less than 0.05". Otherwise warm and dry conditions will return with MinRHs dropping below 30% by Sunday and persisting over the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country into early next week as breezy Southeasterly flow develops. This combined with dry fuels will support enhanced fire weather conditions over the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains through much of next week. A low chance of wetting rains returns by mid week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 77 64 82 66 / 20 0 10 0 Victoria 78 56 82 62 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 75 63 89 66 / 20 0 0 0 Alice 80 60 87 63 / 20 0 10 0 Rockport 76 65 80 68 / 10 0 0 0 Cotulla 74 60 88 65 / 20 0 0 0 Kingsville 80 61 85 64 / 30 0 10 0 Navy Corpus 74 67 77 69 / 30 0 10 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ250- 255-270-275.