textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1253 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

- Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms and marginal to slight excessive rainfall (level 1-2 of 4) today, most likely over Victoria Crossroads

- Minor coastal flooding increasingly likely along with a HIGH rip current risk tonight into Monday morning.

- Hazardous seas with Gale conditions following front overnight through Monday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1253 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Yesterday (Saturday), turned out to be much wetter than majority of the guidance indicated, with several pockets over 2.0" along the northern Coastal Bend and southern Victoria Crossroads. This same area will be most favorable for additional showers and storms through today, resulting in a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall. A 30-50% chance for showers and storms this morning over the Coastal Plains will increase to a 50-90% this afternoon as a cold front pushes through. FROPA is expected by this evening, latest CAM guidance trending faster, causing only lingering low rain chances to continue tonight. Majority of the mid-level lift support will remain to our northeast, limiting the southern extent of the severe threat. Instability will likely be limited with CAPE under 1500 J/kg, but with effective shear over 40 knots aligned parallel to the frontal boundary, a line of strong storms can't be ruled out ahead of and along the front as it pushes through. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary hazards.

The shallow cold air mass will allow for low overcast clouds to linger through Monday, likely cooler than what the NBM has currently with temperatures varying little night to day with the breezy offshore flow. Therefore, went with a blend of short-range consensus and the REFS to get max temperatures on Monday only in the mid to upper 50s areawide; still about 10 degrees warmer than the record low maxes but it'll feel nice! Rain-free conditions with partly to mostly cloudy skies will persist through the middle of the week before moisture advection returns, bringing low rain chances back in the latter half of the week. A shortwave next weekend will result in a slight increase in our rain chances.

Minor coastal flooding is becoming increasingly likely tonight into early Monday morning as strong northeasterly winds enhance the Ekman transport mechanism along with sufficient wave run-up from 8-9 second swell periods. There is a high risk of rip currents tonight through Monday, leading to especially dangerous swimming conditions. Minor coastal flooding may continue to be a concern into the middle of next week during high tide at night.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1253 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

An approaching cold front will lead to mostly MVFR conditions, especially after 12Z. Winds prior to the front will be southerly at 10-15 kts. Showers associated with the front will begin moving in as early at 17Z across the Victoria Crossroads and then moving south (closer to the coastline) through 00Z. Greatest risk with thunderstorms along this line will be gusty and erratic winds followed by a shift to N'ly wind at 10-20 kt with the higher sustained wind along the immediate coastline. Behind the front, IFR CIGs return with brief LIFR drop in CIGs after 00Z.

MARINE

Issued at 1253 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Fresh to strong southeasterly winds will persist through this morning, before weakening slightly ahead of our next cold front that will push through later this afternoon into the evening. There is a medium to high chances for showers and storms through tonight, with an increasing threat of waterspouts. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through midnight tonight over all waters, upgrading to a Gale Warning late tonight through Monday over the open waters as near Gale sustained winds and frequent Gale force winds follow in the wake of the cold front. Strong northeasterly winds will persist over the bays but may need to be include in the Gale Warning if winds trend stronger. At least Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue through Tuesday night before winds weaken to moderate to fresh out of the east to southeast mid to late this week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1253 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions are not anticipated through the forecast period. A cold front will pass through this afternoon to evening, leading to breezy northeasterly winds in its wake. However, temperatures will remain cooler than normal and keep minimum relative humidity above 40 percent. Fuel moisture remains above normal.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 78 55 58 53 / 70 50 10 0 Victoria 72 52 56 50 / 90 30 10 0 Laredo 81 56 61 55 / 0 10 10 10 Alice 77 54 57 52 / 60 40 10 0 Rockport 75 56 58 55 / 70 50 10 0 Cotulla 73 54 59 52 / 30 10 10 0 Kingsville 80 55 58 53 / 40 40 10 0 Navy Corpus 77 58 59 58 / 60 50 10 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Monday afternoon for TXZ345-442-443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ231-232-236- 237.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ250-255- 270-275.

Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ250- 255-270-275.