textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 130 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

- Slight Risk (2 out of 5) of isolated to scattered severe storms across the northwestern portions of Webb and LaSalle Counties and a Marginal Risk (1 of 5) across the remainder of S TX Today- Wednesday.

- Flooding potential tonight through Wednesday. Slight Risk (2 out of 4) for flash flooding for most of S TX.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Shower and thunderstorm chances increase today with mainly isolated showers or thunderstorms this afternoon, although a couple of models indicate it could be more scattered. The overall consensus is that the main event will be tonight. A series of mid/upper level short wave troughs are progged to track around the southeast periphery of a deep cut off low that is currently centered over the southwest U.S. The embedded short waves will vary in location and strength, thus affecting rain chances, rain amounts and timing across S TX.

Moisture is forecast to deepen today and Wednesday with PWATs increasing to 2.0-2.2 inches. The environment is progged to be unstable, along with strong low level moisture convergence and increasing upper diffluence. Combined with the short waves aloft, these features will be conducive for thunderstorm development. Chances will increase to medium to high (50-80%) tonight through Wednesday with the potential for some storms to become strong to severe. Damaging winds will be the primary threat with hail the secondary threat. An isolated tornado or two will also be possible.

Along with the severe threat, there is a risk of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding, especially low lying areas, urban areas, creeks and streams. Total rainfall amounts for this event is expected to range between 1-2 inches with higher amounts possible.

Rain chances taper off from west to east through late Wednesday afternoon and evening. A low to medium (20-50) chance of rain will continue Thursday across the Victoria Crossroads and along the Coastal Bend in response to another mid level short wave. Rain chances will be low to very low Friday and Saturday as ridging aloft takes hold. Additional shower and thunderstorm chances expected early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 130 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

VFR conditions prevail across South Texas early this morning. We'll start to see patches of fog develop over the inland Coastal Plains and impact ALI/VCT over the next several hours. MVFR ceilings will also develop tonight, included TEMPOs for most likely timeframe. Light southeasterly winds will strengthen to around 12 knots with gusts to 20 knots this afternoon and early evening. Winds decrease tonight ahead of shower and thunderstorm chances increase near the end of the forecast. PROB30s have been adjusted to match the slightly later arrival of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE

Issued at 130 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) southeast winds will prevail today increasing to a moderate to occasionally fresh breeze by tonight. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected tonight through Thursday. Dangerous lightning, strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall can be expected. Isolated water spouts are also possible. A gentle to moderate onshore flow will return by late Wednesday and continues through the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 86 75 85 75 / 20 60 80 30 Victoria 87 72 83 71 / 10 80 80 20 Laredo 88 72 90 73 / 30 50 30 10 Alice 86 73 86 72 / 30 60 60 20 Rockport 88 76 87 77 / 10 70 90 40 Cotulla 87 71 88 72 / 20 70 40 10 Kingsville 86 74 85 73 / 30 60 60 20 Navy Corpus 86 77 85 78 / 10 60 80 30

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.