textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 628 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

- Moderate to extreme risk of heat-related impacts this weekend into early next week, heat index 100-110

- Low to medium rain chances (20-40%) first half of next week, increases to medium to high chances (50-70%) latter half of the week

- Potential for minor coastal flooding increases this weekend into early next week

- Moderate risk of rip currents today through this weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

As the ridge continues to progress to the east through tomorrow, we will have strong return flow into the region. The pattern will begin to shift as we have a trough digging around the Four Corners region digging south and extending into West Texas/Northern Mexico. This will send a series of mid-level shortwave disturbances into our region. In addition to this, deep Pacific moisture will also be pumped into the region increasing PWATs to around 2.0", well above normal for this time of year climatologically speaking (99th percentile). Guidance is in pretty good agreement that the area will receive rain. How much each part of the area will get will be decided on how the shortwaves track through the region. As of now, the LREF is continuing to maintain high confidence that all of South Texas will receive 1" of rainfall (60-75%) through next Saturday. Will continue to monitor the trends in regards to this due it still being a few days out.

Heat stress conditions will be another byproduct of the influx of moisture in the region. The increased moisture will lead to very warm dew points and increased cloud cover. This will not allow for temperatures to recover effectively overnight leading to warm overnight lows and warmer highs during the day. Confidence is increasing for heat indices around 100-110 degrees from Saturday through mid-next week. We strongly encourage the practice of heat safety in these conditions. Take frequent breaks and remember to stay hydrated, check those backseats, and avoid long exposure in these temperatures. For more information be sure to check out weather.gov/heatsafety.

P-ETSS guidance is portraying tide levels potentially 2.0 ft MSL late this weekend. This would also coincide with the new moon beginning Saturday and likely increased winds with greater swells. This will lead to minor coastal flooding and increased risk of rip currents through early next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions currently prevail under cirrus clouds with breezy southeasterly winds sustained at 15-20 knots and gusts up to 30 knots over the Coastal Plains. Stronger LLJ tonight over the Brush Country will promote MVFR ceilings to develop, mainly between 09-15Z. Less confidence of MVFR ceilings elsewhere but included TEMPO groups for VCT/CRP/ALI. Winds will remain strong enough to negate fog development. Southeasterly winds restrengthen Saturday morning to 15-20 knots sustained and gusts 25-30 knots again.

MARINE

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Southeasterly moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) breeze today and persist into the middle of next week. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect this afternoon through early Saturday morning for the bays and nearshore waters south of Port Aransas. An extension or/and expansion of the advisory may be necessary as we progress through the weekend. There are low to medium rain chances beginning daily on Tuesday next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 74 88 79 89 / 0 0 10 0 Victoria 72 90 76 91 / 0 0 20 0 Laredo 72 98 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 71 92 77 93 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 77 88 79 89 / 0 10 10 0 Cotulla 71 97 76 99 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 73 90 77 90 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 77 85 79 86 / 0 0 10 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ231-232-250.