textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 532 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

- Patchy to areas of fog possible each morning.

- Cold front passage Saturday will bring the potential for showers and storms, primarily for the Crossroads and northern Coastal Plains.

- Drier air post front coupled with breezy winds and dry fuels could lead to increased fire weather concerns this weekend and early next week.

- Front will provide little relief, with above average temperatures expected to continue into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1157 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Unseasonably warm and humid conditions will persist through the end of the work week as an upper-level ridge remains centered over South Texas. At the surface, light winds and a moist boundary layer will continue to favor fog development across the Coastal Plains and inland portions of the Coastal Bend during the overnight and early morning hours, with a few locally denser pockets possible through Saturday morning.

By Friday night into Saturday, we will have our eyes on a mid-to- upper-level trough advancing from the western CONUS into the Southern Plains. This feature will allow for an associated surface low and cold front to progress eastward through Texas on Saturday, moving offshore by early Sunday morning. Moisture will increase ahead of the boundary, with PWATs ranging between 1.3 and 1.5 inches. The deepest moisture and strongest large-scale ascent are expected to remain focused to our north and east, but scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop ahead of and along the front as it propagates across our WFO. The highest chances will remain confined to the Victoria Crossroads and northern Coastal Plains where medium to high chances (40-80%) are expected on Saturday. Lower probabilities are expected across the southern Coastal Plains and northern Brush Country (20-30%) as well as the Rio Grande Plains (<10%).

Behind the front, low-level flow will shift to the west-northwest, promoting downslope warming east of the higher terrain in northern Mexico. As a result, afternoon temperatures will not cool much at all post-front, despite the transition to a much drier airmass. More noticeable cooling is expected during the overnight and early morning hours beginning Saturday night and continuing through Tuesday morning, with lows dropping back into the 50s. Upper-level ridging is forecast to reestablish itself by midweek, allowing dry weather and above-normal temperatures to dominate.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 532 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

A mix of MVFR/IFR/LIFR will continue this morning with conditions improving around 15z. Another round of fog is likely again tomorrow, especially at ALI and VCT. Winds will be light throughout this TAF cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1157 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

A generally onshore light to gentle breeze (BF 2-3) can be expected through Thursday before increasing to moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) levels Thursday night through Sunday ahead of and behind our next cold front. The increase of wind coupled with wave heights between 4- 6 feet could lead to the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory closer to time. Precipitation is also expected with this frontal passage, with medium to high (40-80%) chances over area waters through the day Saturday. Winds will be more northerly post-front before returning to an onshore direction with gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) conditions by the start of next week. Patchy to areas of fog cannot be ruled out tonight, but slightly more favorable Thursday night and Friday morning with lighter east and southeast winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1157 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Minimum relative humidity values will remain above 30% through the rest of the work week. Friday night and Saturday will bring our next chance for showers and thunderstorms across the eastern half of the area along and ahead of our next cold front. Behind this front, elevated to critical fire weather conditions could return, as relative humidity values are forecast to drop well below 30% mainly across the Brush Country and western Coastal Plains. This combined with 20-foot winds of 10-20 mph, with frequent gusts to 25 mph, and Energy Release Component values in the 70-89th percentile may prompt the issuance of a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) or a Red Flag Warning (RFW) Saturday through Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 80 62 80 66 / 0 0 0 20 Victoria 81 59 80 62 / 0 0 0 30 Laredo 85 63 87 66 / 0 0 0 10 Alice 83 59 84 63 / 0 0 0 10 Rockport 76 63 77 65 / 0 0 0 20 Cotulla 83 60 86 63 / 0 0 0 10 Kingsville 82 60 83 64 / 0 0 0 10 Navy Corpus 74 65 74 66 / 0 0 10 30

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.