textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 549 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

- Medium to high (40-75%) rain chances early Tuesday morning through Wednesday over the Coastal Plains, shifting westward into the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains Thursday and early Friday

- Minor coastal flooding likely during high tide and increased rip currents through this week. Moderate risk of rip currents through at least Tuesday

- Low rain chances linger into Halloween weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Moisture levels and rain chances will increase Tuesday morning with the approach of a mid-level shortwave trough. Current PWAT values are in the 1.3-1.6 inch range as of Monday night but will increase to around 1.70 to approaching 2.0 inches by 12Z Tuesday morning. Increasing low-level moisture combined with the approaching shortwave trough will enhance convergence and lift, supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region (20-40% across western counties), with higher chances (40-75%) along eastern counties. Moderate to high will move further inland throughout Tuesday with convergence associated with an inverted trough and abundant moisture. However, rain chances will gradually taper off late Tuesday afternoon and evening as the main forcing shifts inland and weakens.

Rain chances will continue Wednesday as deep moisture remains in place and additional disturbances move across the region within southwesterly flow aloft. Attention then turns to Thursday as another shortwave and increasing moisture support a renewed round of showers and thunderstorms, with the greatest coverage expected across western portions of South Texas. WPC has placed the Brush Country under a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4) of excessive rainfall Thursday, with a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 4) extending into northwestern portions of the region. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding will be possible, especially where storms become persistent or training develops. Isolated flooding and ponding will be possible in low lying poor drainage areas. However, uncertainty remains regarding the location and magnitude of the heaviest rainfall.

Rain chances gradually decrease Friday as the deeper moisture and upper-level forcing shift northeastward. Low rain chances may linger into Halloween weekend, with another potential cold front approaching early next week. Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal through much of the period.

Minor coastal flooding remains a concern through much of the week as persistent onshore flow, elevated swell periods, and astronomical tides contribute to higher water levels during high tide. An increased risk of rip currents will also persist.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 601 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Weak showers have moved into the Coastal areas and the Victoria Crossroads this morning. This will lead to periods of MVFR, possibly brief IFR, conditions in and around the showers. A few thunderstorms will also be possible later this morning into early afternoon as the activity spreads west to ALI, then COT and LRD by afternoon. Outside of the convection, conditions are expected to be VFR. Rain chances are forecast to taper off this evening, with a slight chance remaining along the coast through early Wednesday morning. Brief MVFR conditions due to patchy fog is expected for ALI and VCT overnight after 08Z. Winds will generally be east at 10-15 mph, but could see strong gusty winds in and around the convection.

MARINE

Issued at 136 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) southeasterly flow will persist through much of the week, with seas generally 3 to 5 feet, occasionally reaching 6-7 feet offshore early Tuesday. Medium to high rain chances are expected through Wednesday, with lower chances Thursday and Friday. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible near thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 136 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions are not anticipated through the period. Abundant low-level moisture will maintain relatively high minimum relative humidity values, while winds generally remain below critical thresholds. Periodic showers and thunderstorms through the work week will further limit fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 82 69 84 70 / 70 20 40 10 Victoria 81 63 84 64 / 50 10 50 0 Laredo 86 69 89 71 / 20 10 0 10 Alice 82 66 85 68 / 70 10 30 10 Rockport 82 70 83 72 / 60 20 50 10 Cotulla 83 66 87 68 / 40 10 0 10 Kingsville 82 66 85 68 / 60 10 30 0 Navy Corpus 81 74 81 74 / 70 30 40 20

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for TXZ345-442- 443-447.

GM...None.