textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 524 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

- Cold front passage today will bring the potential for showers and storms, primarily for our northernmost counties.

- Storm Prediction Center has the northern Brush Country, northern Coastal Plains, and the Victoria Crossroads in a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk of severe thunderstorms today.

- Drier air post front coupled with breezy winds and dry fuels could lead to increased fire weather concerns this weekend and early next week.

- Front will provide little relief, with above average temperatures expected to continue into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1131 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Rain chances will gradually increase early this morning as a mid-to- upper-level ridges shifts easts of the area and a weak shortwave trough tracks across South Texas ahead of a larger longwave trough. A strengthening LLJ of 30-35 knots will transport moisture northward, supporting scattered light showers mainly across the Coastal Bend, Victoria Crossroads and the northern Brush Country. Rain coverage before sunrise is expected to remain limited, with probabilities between 10-20%.

By this afternoon, the previously mentioned longwave trough and strong LLJ propagate eastward, while a surface low and associated cold front drive southward into South Texas. PWATs will rise to range between 1.4-1.7 inches across the eastern half of the region, with forecast MLCAPE approaching around 1000 J/kg. Large- scale ascent will strengthen as upper-level divergence increases, and low-level moisture convergence will intensify along and ahead of the advancing boundary. These ingredients will favor the development of showers and thunderstorms from northwest to southeast through the afternoon and early evening. However, mid- level capping is expected to limit storm coverage, particularly farther south. The weakest capping is forecast across northern portions of the forecast area, particularly for the Victoria Crossroads, where storm coverage should be highest. As a result, a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms still exists from roughly Cotulla to Rockport and northward, with the greater concentration of stronger storms expected across areas north and east of our WFO. Storms are most likely to organize into a QLCS during the evening hours, with the better organized damaging wind potential still focused to our northeast across Southeast Texas. This would place us on the southwestern fringe of the more organized severe environment. However, if a few more intense storms manage to swipe into the northeastern portions of our CWA, the primary hazards would be isolated severe wind gusts and perhaps some small hail.

The boundary will move offshore by Saturday evening, but CAA behind the front will be weak. The more noticeable change will be the transition to a drier airmass and clearing skies overnight, which will allow low temperatures to fall into the 50s by early Sunday morning. Upper-level ridging will once again build across Texas early next week continuing our warm and dry trend. Highs will climb well above seasonal normals, with the warmest conditions expected across the Brush Country where highs are forecast to reach the lower 90s by Tuesday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 524 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Mainly MVFR conditions are expected today with periods of IFR/LIFR as rain chances increase ahead of the the cold front. Winds will remain gusty through this afternoon before decreasing in the wake of the front. Conditions will quickly improve to VFR after the frontal passage. Low level wind shear will be possible a couple sites late towards this TAF cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1131 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) breeze will persist through Sunday ahead of and behind our next cold front. Brief instances of gusts to strong (BF 6) levels can be expected Saturday afternoon and evening during the height of the frontal passage. The increase of wind coupled with wave heights between 5-7 feet have lead to the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory which is in effect from 15Z Saturday through 03Z Sunday. Precipitation is also anticipated with this front, with low to medium (30-60%) chances over area waters through the day Saturday. Winds will be more northerly post-front before returning to an onshore direction with gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) conditions by the start of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1131 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Minimum relative humidity values will remain above 30% through Saturday. Friday night and Saturday will bring our next chance for showers and thunderstorms across the eastern half of the area along and ahead of our next cold front. Behind this front, elevated to critical fire weather conditions could return, as relative humidity values are forecast to drop well below 30% mainly across the Brush Country and western Coastal Plains for several days. This combined with 20-foot winds of 10-20 mph, with occasional higher gusts, and Energy Release Component values in the 70th-89th percentile may prompt the issuance of a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) or a Red Flag Warning (RFW) Sunday through possibly Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 80 57 82 53 / 30 30 0 0 Victoria 77 54 78 47 / 70 40 0 0 Laredo 89 58 84 54 / 10 0 0 0 Alice 87 55 84 50 / 30 10 0 0 Rockport 77 59 79 56 / 50 40 0 0 Cotulla 84 55 83 50 / 30 0 0 0 Kingsville 87 55 83 51 / 20 10 0 0 Navy Corpus 75 61 78 59 / 40 30 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ231-232-236-237.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ250-255-270-275.