textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 611 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

- Daily chances of rain leading to a quick downpour with strongest storms bringing rainfall in excess of 2-3 inches

- Rip current risk increasing this weekend along with increased chances of minor coastal flooding Friday/Saturday at high tide

- More widespread Moderate HeatRisk (level 2 of 4) from Sunday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 108 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

A cutoff low moves over the Baja Peninsula today aiming the sub- tropical jet stream right towards northern Mexico and the along the Rio Grande. While the greatest jet-dynamics will be positioned closer to the Big Bend region, much of Texas will see increased rain chances through the weekend as a result. At the surface, E/SE'ly flow will continue to feed Gulf moisture into South Texas with values in excess of 2 inches from Friday afternoon through Sunday. Most of the shower/storm initiation will be sea-breeze driven initially, once storms have formed, storm motions will be boundary- driven, whether its with the seabreeze or with colliding outflow boundaries. In the vicinity of the strongest storms or areas with slow-moving storms, 1-2 inch accumulations will be common with isolated amounts approaching 3 inches. Soils remain saturated and if daily chances for similar rainfall amounts hold true, then more efficient runoff processes will lead to flashier responses from local streams and creeks. For this reason, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk for flash flooding (level 1 of 4) generally across the southern half of Texas. These rain chances will continue through Saturday, but drop in coverage by Sunday.

The cutoff low fills in from Monday allowing a ridge of high pressure in the Gulf to extend a ridge axis into the the upper Mississippi River valley. This limits the upper-level Pacific moisture influx and leads to low end chances for isolated seabreeze storms. It allows temperatures to climb back into more widespread 90s, and consequently, more widespread Moderate HeatRisk (level 2 of 4) as heat indices max out in the 105-110F range by mid-week.

With respect to the rip current risk, a persistent easterly wind is increasing the swell period from now through the weekend with an increase to a Moderate rip current risk tonight with consideration of high rip current risk by Friday, but this will be looked into for the next forecast package. With respect to coastal flooding, P-ETSS guidance for Aransas Pass shows water levels approaching 1.5 ft above MSL right at the time that 8-9 second periods move toward the Middle Texas Coast. This long-swell energy combined with the high tide cycle will increased the chances for minor coastal flooding. High tides will fall during the mid-late morning this weekend allowing for optimal time to monitor beach cams prior to considering the issuance of a Coastal Flood Advisory.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

LIFR conditions have developed at a few terminals (ALI and COT). This is expected to last for another couple of hours before returning to VFR conditions. Periods of MVFR conditions will be expected with the potential for lower CIGs and VSBYs due to showers and thunderstorms in the region today. This is expected to persist through the afternoon and taper off at most sites this evening. Some lingering showers and thunderstorms will persist around the LRD terminal. Tonight lower CIGs and VSBYs will return once again ranging from VFR to LIFR conditions.

MARINE

Issued at 108 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Expect a gentle to moderate easterly breeze today with 2-3 ft seas. Winds become more southeasterly by Friday with seas increasing to 3- 5 ft through Monday. Daily chances for showers closer to the coastline (20-40%) will lead to enhanced sea conditions in the strongest storms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 108 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

With the recent rains, the green-up, and minimum relative humidity values remaining above 45% through the next 7 days, the fire risk is low. Daily rain chances will continue to bring low-moderate chances (20-40%) for a wetting rain in the stronger storms through at least early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 86 76 87 76 / 40 10 30 20 Victoria 85 72 88 73 / 70 20 30 20 Laredo 91 74 87 73 / 20 40 50 30 Alice 87 73 87 74 / 40 10 40 30 Rockport 89 79 89 79 / 40 10 10 20 Cotulla 90 74 87 73 / 10 30 50 60 Kingsville 86 75 86 75 / 40 10 40 20 Navy Corpus 86 79 87 79 / 30 10 20 20

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.