textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 548 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

- Strong Arctic cold front with the potential for a wintry mix of precipitation this weekend.

- Freezing temperatures expected along with wind chills in the low teens and 20s Saturday night through Monday.

- Main impacts expected are icy roads and hypothermia.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1247 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Conditions will be wetter and warmer through the work week ahead of a strong Arctic cold front expected to move through S TX on Saturday. Models are showing a high (70-80%)chance of freezing temperatures below 32 degrees across the Victoria Crossroads to 40-50% chance across the southern portions of S TX starting Saturday night and continuing each night through Monday night. With northerly winds ranging from 10-20 mph, wind chills could be as low as the teens at times, especially at night.

The Big Question is whether there will be wintry precipitation or not, and if so, how far south. There is a lot of uncertainty for days 5-7, but confidence should improve as we get closer to the event. For now, the Victoria Crossroads has the best chance of freezing rain late Saturday night into Sunday morning. That is, IF the rain has not move out of the area before the temperatures drop to freezing. Models differ on timing and placement of an upper low, which will determine precipitation chances. The upper low is progged to be anywhere from the Desert SW or farther south over Mexico as it moves eastward toward TX.

Based on model soundings, there could be a mix of sleet as well. Chances for snow are very low (<10%). The chance of freezing rain farther south and west drops due to slightly warmer temperatures coincident with when the rain occurs, but there is still a medium chance for the southern areas, as well. A reminder that freezing rain is a liquid as it falls then freezes on contact with surfaces that are below 32 degrees. This could lead to icy conditions with road hazards and hypothermia being the main concerns.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 548 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR conditions current prevail across South Texas with BKN-OVC deck at 6-8kft overhead. MVFR ceilings will likely develop later tonight into Wednesday morning across the region, with a low (20-40%) chance of showers during the day. Inland over COT/LRD/VCT there is a window of a moderate chance for IFR ceilings in the morning as noted by the TEMPOs. Winds will remain weak, shifting more south to southeasterly Wednesday.

MARINE

Issued at 1247 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore flow expected tonight, with a fresh breeze across the offshore waters. Winds diminish to a gentle (BF-3) breeze Wednesday. Onshore flow begins to increase Friday ahead of a strong Arctic cold front. Winds are expected to shift to a northerly direction and increase to a strong to near gale (BF 6-7) flow by Saturday behind the cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions expected through the weekend. Moderate to high (70-90%) rain chances over the waters by Wednesday. Rain chances diminish Thursday and Friday, then increase once again over the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1247 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Moisture will increase due to onshore flow and upper-level moisture advection. RH values through the remainder of the week are expected to range between 45 to 80% from the west to the coast, with light to moderate winds. ERC values will continue to improve, dropping from the 70th percentile to around the 30-40th percentile, resulting in low fire danger. The next front is expected this weekend, with passage likely Saturday morning. Elevated fire weather conditions are not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 59 73 60 77 / 30 40 10 0 Victoria 54 72 56 76 / 20 50 20 10 Laredo 56 73 52 79 / 20 10 0 0 Alice 56 74 57 79 / 20 20 10 0 Rockport 58 70 59 72 / 30 50 20 10 Cotulla 54 73 51 77 / 20 10 0 0 Kingsville 57 74 58 79 / 30 30 10 0 Navy Corpus 62 70 63 72 / 40 50 20 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.