textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 604 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

- Drier conditions through midweek.

- Seasonably hot conditions with a moderate to major risk of heat- related impacts through the week. Peak heat indices will range between 100-110 degF.

- Tropical Depression Two formed Sunday morning in the northeastern Gulf. Monitoring for impacts along the Middle Texas Coast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Upper-level ridging will remain the dominant weather feature through the middle of the week, supporting another stretch of hot and mainly dry weather across South Texas. High temperatures will trend upward each day, reaching the middle and upper 90s across the Coastal Bend and Coastal Plains, while much of the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains climbs into the triple digits. Afternoon boundary layer mixing should mix out some of the higher dewpoints, keeping peak heat index values generally between 100 and 110 degrees F. Although heat advisory criteria are generally not expected to be met, a moderate HeatRisk will continue for much of the area with localized areas of major HeatRisk during the hottest part of the afternoon.

Forecast attention shifts to Tropical Depression Two over the northeastern Gulf during the latter half of the week. The latest NHC forecast remains largely unchanged, with the system expected to mover generally west-northwest across the northern Gulf while forecast confidence in its eventual track and intensity remains lower than average. Even though much of the available guidance keeps the more significant impacts east of the Coastal Bend, uncertainty remains high enough to maintain low-end rain chances across the region late this week. This accounts for the possibility that outer rain bands or deeper tropical moisture could spread farther west than currently indicated.

Regardless of the eventual track, increasing easterly swell is expected to reach the Texas coast late this week. This will likely result in rougher surf, an increased risk of rip currents, and increased risk for coastal flooding. While the probability of tropical-storm-force winds along the Middle Texas Coast remains low, residents and mariners should continue to monitor future forecasts as the system evolves.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

There's a narrow stretch of IFR/MVFR ceilings from Duval to Live Oak Counties but VFR conditions prevail elsewhere. These ceilings can still drift over ALI/CRP/VCT over the next few hours before lifting to VFR by 15Z. Southeasterly winds increase to 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots this afternoon and evening, before decreasing again later tonight. Another night of MVFR ceiling potential over the Coastal Plains near the end of the forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 136 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

A moderate (BF-4) onshore flow will persist through the next several days, with a fresh breeze (BF-5) developing each afternoon along the coast south of Port Aransas. Seas will remain moderate through midweek.

Forecast confidence decreases late Wednesday through Friday as attention turns to Tropical Depression Two over the northeastern Gulf. Although significant uncertainty remains regarding the eventual track and intensity of the system, mariners should expect building easterly swell, increasing seas, strengthening onshore winds, and increasing shower and thunderstorm chances late in the week. Forecast details will continue to be refined as additional observational data becomes available.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 97 74 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 98 72 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 106 76 106 77 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 102 72 102 72 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 91 79 91 78 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 104 74 104 75 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 99 73 99 72 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 90 79 90 78 / 0 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.