textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 633 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

- Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms across all of South Texas and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of flash flooding across the Brush Country tonight

- Seasonal temperatures will drier conditions this week in the wake of the front

DISCUSSION

Issued at 203 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

As a cold front approaches the region tonight, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead and along the front. Due to a favorable environment for severe weather, if a storm is able to develop it will have a good chance of becoming severe. The main threats with any storm that becomes severe will be damaging winds and hail. Heavy rain will also be possible within the most mature thunderstorms or areas that experience training. As of this moment, the best chances for that will be across the Brush Country, with the possibility of seeing up to 2.5" of rain.

Monday and Tuesday will be relatively cool with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s with seasonal temperatures returning mid-week and hanging through the weekend. Rain chances will quickly taper off Monday with drier weather expected through this week with rain chances below 10%.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 633 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected to persist for the next few hours before MVFR CIGs begin to filter in for our easternmost terminals around 02-03Z or so. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms associated with a cold front is forecast to push from northwest to southeast across all terminals overnight, beginning as early as 03Z for our northernmost counties, before moving offshore a couple hours before sunrise. Most of the convective allowing models show the line of storms taking on a bowing structure, increasing confidence for the potential for strong wind gusts of 35 knots or greater. Lower confidence exists for any hail potential, but it cannot be entirely ruled out with stronger storms. Additionally, any storms and heavier rain showers through the overnight hours will be capable of briefly reducing VSBYs down to as low as IFR/LIFR levels. Low level wind shear could be possible across all sites with the frontal passage, but due to low confidence at this time did not include in the TAFs. Expect quick improvement following the frontal passage, with conditions lifting back to VFR and winds shifting the the north-northeast.

MARINE

Issued at 203 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

A gentle (BF 3) southeast wind will shift to the northeast Sunday night and strengthening to moderate levels (BF 4) in the wake of the front. Winds are expected to relax to a gentle breeze by Monday night and continue through mid-week. Showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight ahead and along the cold front with the possibility of severe thunderstorms with strong winds and hail as the primary threats. Drier conditions are expected Monday afternoon through mid- week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 74 86 71 85 / 50 10 0 0 Victoria 70 86 67 87 / 50 10 0 0 Laredo 73 87 71 89 / 80 20 0 0 Alice 73 87 69 88 / 50 10 0 0 Rockport 75 88 72 86 / 50 10 0 0 Cotulla 71 86 68 89 / 60 10 0 0 Kingsville 73 86 70 86 / 40 20 0 0 Navy Corpus 76 84 74 82 / 50 10 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.