textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 126 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

- Moderate to occasionally Extreme risk of heat-related impacts through Friday with an increased Extreme risk across a large portion of South Texas this weekend.

- Low to medium rain chances through Friday, then low to very low chances by the weekend and into next week.

- Elevated Fire Weather conditions possible Friday-Monday across the Brush Country.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Wednesday turned out to be more active than anticipated, especially across the Rio Grande Plains. Similar conditions are in store for today with a mid level trough across S TX combined with deep moisture. Several models keep the highest probabilities across the Victoria Crossroads with very low chances across the Rio Grande Plains. This is due to the mid level trough shifting slightly northeastward with a strengthening mid/upper level northerly flow developing across the western areas and leading to a more subsident environment. That being said, the deep moisture and unstable environment may be enough to overcome the subsidence.

Rainfall totals through Friday are expected to be generally less than 0.25 inch, but with PWATs continuing to range from 2.0-2.3 inches, a few stronger storms may produce 1-2 inches. Rain chances are progged to decrease through Friday afternoon and into the weekend as mid level ridging builds back across S TX.

An Extreme risk of heat related impacts are forecast across most of S TX by the weekend. Although, heat indices up to 113 may occur this afternoon , it is expected to be isolated with a short duration, thus a Heat Advisory will not be issued at this time. However, by Friday and into the weekend the duration of heat indices of 110+ across a larger area may warrant daily Heat Advisories, possibly through early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 126 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

VFR conditions prevail across South Texas early this morning. There will be a low to medium chance for showers and storms over the Victoria Crossroads, carrying lower chances out west over the Brush Country. PROB30s and VCSH have been included for eastern three terminals (ALI/CRP/VCT) for showers and occasional storms later this morning through afternoon. Not high enough confidence to include a mention for LRD/COT but we'll have to keep a close eye on development after 00Z. Light southeasterly winds early this morning will strengthen this afternoon with sustained 10-15 knots and gusts 20-25 knots. Direct thunderstorm impacts can bring varying winds up to 30 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 126 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Light to gentle (BF 2-3) south to southeast flow expected through today, becoming gentle to moderate by Friday and continuing through the weekend. A fresh (BF 5) breeze south of Port Aransas is expected in the afternoons over the weekend and into next week. Seas 1-2 feet will increase to 2-4 feet this weekend. There is a medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms today, then rain chances decrease.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 126 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Above normal moisture will continue to negate fire weather concerns through today as minimum relative humidity stays above 30 percent along with light winds. Elevated Fire weather concerns increase across the Brush Country through the weekend with afternoon RH values of 25-30% and slightly stronger southeasterly winds with gusts around 25 mph. There is a low to medium chance of wetting rains today then chances decrease through the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 95 79 97 79 / 20 10 10 0 Victoria 96 75 98 77 / 50 10 30 0 Laredo 103 79 104 79 / 10 10 0 0 Alice 100 76 101 76 / 20 10 10 0 Rockport 92 81 93 82 / 40 10 10 0 Cotulla 102 77 103 78 / 10 0 0 0 Kingsville 98 77 99 78 / 20 0 10 0 Navy Corpus 91 82 91 83 / 20 10 10 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.