textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 120 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

- Medium to high chance of tropical development in the Bay of Campeche this week with coastal flooding and rip currents the primary concern for South Texas.

- A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect until 7 PM Tuesday and may need to be extended through the week.

- Generally dry across South Texas through Wednesday, then low rain chances return Thursday. A medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms will remain across the Middle Texas Coastal Waters through much of the period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 120 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Mid level ridging along with a slightly drier airmass across S TX will keep rain chances very low through mid week. However, a broad mid level trough draped north to south across the western gulf and a broad surface low across the Bay of Campeche will continue to bring a medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms to the Middle Texas Coastal Waters through mid week.

The forecast becomes more tricky by mid to late in the week due to the uncertainty with the possible development of a tropical system in the Bay of Campeche. There is now a 80% chance of tropical development over the next 7 days. If it does not develop, then S TX will likely have deeper moisture advection resulting in a more active daily sea breeze through next weekend, with a low to medium chance of convection and near to slightly above normal temperatures the latter half of the week.

However, if a tropical system does develop, it will likely stay east of S TX, keeping S TX on the drier side. This is due a mid level west to northwest flow ushering drier air across the region resulting in a low to very low chance of rain along, as well as higher max temps. For now, will maintain the medium to high PoPs across the coastal waters and low (10-20%) across the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads the latter part of the week and into the weekend.

The main concern if a tropical system developing over the gulf will be indirect impacts from an increased risk of coastal flooding, moderate to high rip current risk and seas possibly building up to 9 feet offshore. Currently a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through Tuesday evening due to a persistent northeast flow across the northwest gulf waters pushing water up to the dunes during times of high tide. The Coastal Flood Advisory may need to be extended if a tropical system does develop.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 120 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Low to very low rain chances expected across S TX through the TAF cycle, but remain medium to high across the Coastal Waters. Brief MVFR CIGs across ALI and CRP early this afternoon will become predominantly VFR over the next 2-3 hours. VFR conditions are expected the rest of the TAF period either due to scattered clouds or broken clouds well above 3kft. A few gusts around 20-25 knots can be expected through this afternoon. Winds will generally be north to northeast at 5-10 knots tonight through Tuesday.

MARINE

Issued at 120 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

A small craft advisory remains in effect through 7 PM this evening for the Middle Texas Coastal Waters. Northeasterly winds will decrease slightly to a moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) northeasterly breeze tonight across the coastal waters and a gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) breeze across the bays. Winds are expected to restrengthen to a fresh to strong breeze by Thursday, mainly across the offshore waters. A medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 120 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

No significant fire weather concerns are anticipated through the work week with mainly moderate humidity levels and weak winds. Rain chances are low through the middle of the week but could increase by the latter half.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 72 89 73 90 / 0 10 0 10 Victoria 69 92 69 93 / 0 0 0 10 Laredo 69 90 70 91 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 70 89 70 91 / 0 0 0 10 Rockport 74 90 75 90 / 10 10 10 20 Cotulla 69 90 69 90 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 71 89 72 90 / 10 0 0 10 Navy Corpus 76 87 77 87 / 20 10 20 30

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ345-442-443- 447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ250-255- 270-275.