textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 518 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

- Low chance (20-40%) of patchy fog across the Coastal Bend through Wednesday morning.

- Above normal temperatures will continue through this week.

- Low rain chances tomorrow into tomorrow night, increasing to medium rain chances (40-60%) this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1124 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

There is not much change to the previous forecast which is actually a great thing for us--it means we are still expecting low rain chances over portions of the area today and medium rain chances over most of the area this weekend. Let's talk about the rain this weekend.

An approaching low along with several shortwaves will move across the region. An associated surface trough and an unstable airmass will provide support for convective development. Meanwhile, a 30-40 knot LLJ will advect moisture inland. The previous forecast indicated PWATs of 1.5-1.7 inches but guidance has increased just slightly with PWATs of 1.5-1.8 inches possible. As mentioned before, there is still some uncertainty in the timing and strength of the shortwaves coinciding with the best moisture and stability.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 518 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Mainly MVFR conditions at this time, but may still see brief periods of IFR conditions east around sunrise. CIGS improve by late in the morning as winds pick up. Strong southeasterly winds are expected this afternoon. Winds above the surface remain elevated tonight and expect another night of mainly MVFR CIGS area wide.

MARINE

Issued at 1124 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

A generally moderate (BF 4) southeasterly breeze will persist through Thursday, before increasing to moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) by Thursday night. There is a low (<20%) chance of showers across the waters Friday, increasing to a medium (30-50%) chance over the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1124 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Southeasterly flow will maintain elevated relative humidity (RH) across South Texas for the next today. However, fuels remain cured, with Energy Release Components (ERCs) in the 50th-69th percentile. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, mainly Thursday and Friday across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country as expected minimum RH values dropping to range between 25-30% and southeast winds gusting to 25 mph in response to a dry line to the west. Chances for precipitation will generally remain low (<20%) through Friday, but will increase to a medium (40- 60%) chance over the weekend with a passing mid- to upper-level disturbance.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 83 70 82 70 / 10 10 0 10 Victoria 83 67 83 68 / 20 10 10 10 Laredo 93 70 92 70 / 10 10 10 10 Alice 88 69 88 68 / 10 10 0 10 Rockport 80 69 80 70 / 20 10 0 10 Cotulla 91 70 92 70 / 20 20 10 10 Kingsville 86 69 87 69 / 10 10 0 10 Navy Corpus 77 70 77 70 / 20 10 0 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.