textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 522 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

- Medium to high rain chances (50-90%) this weekend. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall is in place for most of South Texas today.

- A Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather is in place for today over the northern to northeastern portions of the area, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 2) for the remainder of South Texas. The main hazards will be large hail to very large hail possible and damaging winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Per satellite imagery cloud appear to be breaking to allow for daytime heating ahead of the impending cold front. The 18Z sounding has about 2600 J/kg sbcape over the region with no CIN. Surface to equilibrium level bulk shear (71 knots), steep 700 to 500mb lapse rates (7.6 degrees C/KM), and moderate to high MUCAPE (2627 J/Kg) are all pointing to large to very large hail being a definite threat. The environment does also support a damaging wind threat with the potential for microbursts. The likely timing of storms entering the area will be around 4-6 PM. Showers and storms are expected to persist through the overnight period into tomorrow morning. Due to these factors SPC maintained our region northern to northwestern portions of the region in a Slight Risk (2 out of 5), with the remainder of South Texas in a Marginal Risk(1 out of 5).

Model guidance has trended back on rainfall total amounts tremendously. This time yesterday, models were forecasting amounts in the Brush Country mainly around 2-3 inches with locally higher amounts. This cycle we are now only expecting amounts up to an inch with locally higher amounts. This is due to model guidance favoring towards a faster solution for showers and storms to move through the region. This is likely due to forecasted stronger bulk shear values around 50-60 knots. Other factors such as DCP of 2 (derecho composite parameter), Effective bulk shear difference (28 knots), high MUCAPE (2627 J/Kg), and efficient 0-6km mean wind (19 knots) supports storms congealing into a line of convection with likely embedded supercells. This would limit the potential for flooding rain though it will remain possible. Due to this WPC has transitioned all of South Texas into a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for Excessive Rainfall. Activity should begin to wind down by Sunday morning, with rain chances waning throughout the remainder of the day for majority of the region. Low chances for rain will exist for the beginning of the week. By midweek we will see another disturbance swing through the region bringing our next best chance for rain.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 522 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have developed to the north of COT and VCT. Expect convection will start to develop over South Texas in the next hour or two and continue through the night. Some storms could be strong to severe, particularly over the Brush Country. Large hail, damaging winds, and high rainfall rates are possible. By late tonight/early Sunday morning, convection will likely have decreased, with some lingering showers expected into the afternoon. Low to medium rain chances will continue through Sunday area wide.

VFR visibility will linger with VFR ceilings becoming MVFR to IFR between 02Z and 06Z, with IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibility possible in and around any thunderstorms. Winds will shift from southeast to the north/northeast.

MARINE

Issued at 234 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Moderate (BF 4) southeasterly flow is expected today. Winds will diminish to a gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) tonight through Monday. Winds will increase once again to a moderate to fresh breeze (BF 4-5) Monday night ahead of another cold front. A medium to high (40-70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and tonight and continue through Sunday before decreasing to a low (<25%) chance Sunday night that will persist into early next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 234 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Rain chances will increase to medium to high (50-90%) today as a cold front moves into the area. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, especially over the Brush Country. With expected rainfall, increased moisture, and a decrease in the winds, elevated fire weather conditions are not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 66 79 69 84 / 60 60 20 20 Victoria 61 77 65 83 / 70 60 10 20 Laredo 64 75 65 88 / 80 70 70 10 Alice 64 79 67 88 / 80 70 30 20 Rockport 66 79 69 81 / 60 60 10 10 Cotulla 61 73 65 86 / 80 70 50 20 Kingsville 65 81 68 87 / 70 60 30 10 Navy Corpus 68 77 70 78 / 60 50 20 20

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.