textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 605 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Minor coastal flooding along with the risk for rip currents will continue in combination with high tide throughout the week and going into the weekend.

- Low rain chances will continue into this evening and overnight across our coastal areas with increasing chances across our far western counties going into Thursday.

- We eventually dry out going into Friday with warm and humid conditions expected for Halloween weekend.

- Our next cold front is expected sometime around Tuesday of next week along with chances for rain and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 119 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Shower activity will continue to diminish this evening with the loss of daytime heating across our coastal waters, but can't rule out a small chance (10-20 percent) of a few sprinkles along our immediate coast. Higher rain chances can be expected as we go into Thursday across our inland counties from the Brush Country extending down to the Rio Grande Plains as a result of the remnants of what is currently Tropical Depression Vance in the Eastern Pacific. The Weather Prediction Center(WPC) currently has our far northwestern CWA in a Marginal or level 1 out of 4 risk for excessive rainfall for Thursday in response to a combination of enhanced lift and vorticity along with increasing moisture levels that is associated with the remnants of Vance. The most recent ensemble model guidance runs and soundings shows a rather saturated profile from near the surface and up through the boundary layer with PWAT values approaching 2.0 inches across the Brush Country, which would favor locally heavy rainfall with any of the storms and localized flash flooding or ponding on low lying areas/roads where any training sets up. The rain will begin to taper off as we go into Thursday evening with everyone drying out as we go into all of Friday and will continue through Halloween weekend. Our next cold front is forecast to arrive sometime on Tuesday of next week bring with it chances for showers and thunderstorms. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms looks to be more towards the north and northeast closer to the trough where the best upper-level dynamics will be. Given the ample instability year-round across our area and the enhanced low to mid-level vorticity and lift with the approaching cold front, we cannot rule out the possibility of some strong to severe thunderstorms. Trends will continue to be monitored as we get closer to the event.

Model Guidance does continue to show the potential for minor coastal flooding along the gulf facing beaches going into the weekend due to persistent onshore flow and elevated swells periods. There is also an increased risk of rip currents that will continue throughout the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Rain with a few embedded storms are expected through much of today and tonight across the COT and LRD areas, leading to a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions. At times, IFR conditions will be possible for COT and LRD with the heavier rainfall. Isolated showers are expected mainly this morning across CRP and VCT, then late morning/early afternoon for ALI. Outside of the convection, CIGs will be at VFR levels across the eastern TAF sites. A low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms will remain possible Friday.

MARINE

Issued at 119 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Light to moderate (BF 2-4) southeasterly flow will persist through much of the week, with seas generally 3 to 5 feet. Low to medium (15- 40%) chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue through Saturday. Locally higher winds and seas will be possible near thunderstorms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 119 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Abundant low-level moisture and winds generally below 20 knots will limit fire weather concerns through the forecast period. Showers and thunderstorms through the work week will also work to limit fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 83 71 84 71 / 10 20 30 10 Victoria 83 64 81 67 / 10 10 30 10 Laredo 83 70 85 70 / 50 30 20 10 Alice 83 68 84 68 / 20 20 30 10 Rockport 82 72 82 72 / 10 20 30 30 Cotulla 80 67 82 68 / 60 40 40 10 Kingsville 84 69 86 69 / 10 20 20 10 Navy Corpus 81 74 82 74 / 10 20 30 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM CDT Friday for TXZ345-442-443- 447.

GM...None.