textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 620 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

- Moderate Rip Current Risk today through Wednesday.

- Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible at times across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains today and Wednesday.

- Low rain chances expected at times through the remainder of the work week, increasing to a medium chance of showers and thunderstorms this weekend as a cold front moves through South Texas.

- Locally heavy rainfall, small hail, gusty winds possible with the rain event this weekend.

- Above normal temperatures continue through the work week, possibly below normal this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Expect a repeat of yesterday's weather for today, but the overall weather pattern will be shifting, leading to the potential for rain this week, with the best chance this weekend.

An upper level short wave situated across the northwest gulf and is forecast to track north to northeast today, ushering in slightly deeper moisture. This will bring a low (10-20%) chance of "streamer" showers to the Coastal Bend and nearshore waters today. Low rain chances continue Wednesday across the Coastal Bend and Coastal Waters. Most locations will remain dry with little to no rain accumulations through Wed.

Models continue to show an upper level long wave trough bring a weak cold front into Central TX Wednesday night/Thursday, but washes out before making it to S TX. This still brings a 15%-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms across the southwest CWA to 30-35% chance across the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Bend for Thursday. The better upper dynamics and higher rain chances remain north of S TX, but could see the tail end of a line of convection skirt across the Victoria Crossroads. Rainfall amounts will generally be 0.10" or less across most of S TX, but could see up to around 0.25" across the Victoria Crossroads.

Confidence is growing with respect to a heavier rainfall event across S TX this weekend. Models continue to be in fair agreement with an upper trough bringing a moderate to strong cold front through S TX sometime between Saturday and Sunday. Models are showing PWATs increasing to between 1.5-1.9 inches on Saturday ahead of the cold front. The airmass if progged to be moderately unstable Saturday. An 80KT upper jet is forecast to nose into the region with increasing diffluence aloft, while the frontal boundary provides strong low level convergence. The combination of these features if they develop as the models indicate, could lead to some storms becoming strong with small hail and winds up to 40-50 knots. The low level shear/helicity is also progged to increase, thus can not rule out a tornado. Currently the thinking is that this system will begin affecting S TX Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. Behind the front, models indicate forecast soundings conducive for heavy rain, with a saturated profile and "skinny" CAPE. Current forecast for rainfall totals this weekend range from 0.50-1.2 inches.

The weekend is still a ways off and things can change, so keep up to date with the latest information.

There is a Moderate Rip Current Risk today through Wednesday due to swell periods 6-8 seconds, southeast winds 10-15 knots and an almost full moon.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

MVFR ceilings spread across South Texas this morning and will continue through 14-15Z. Dense fog is being observed at VCT but nowhere else so expect it to be very local. VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals by 15-16Z, when southeasterly winds strengthen. Sustained SE winds around 20 knots with gusts to 30 knots will develop late this morning through the afternoon, before diminishing to around 10 knots or less tonight. Slightly lower CIGs are to develop overnight, bringing MVFR/IFR ceilings across the Coastal Plains that'll spread inland to LRD/COT near the end of the forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 135 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) southeasterly flow will continue through Wednesday. Periods of a fresh (BF 5) breeze south of Port Aransas to Baffin Bay will be possible each afternoon. A fresh to strong (BF 5-6) breeze is expected to develop Wednesday night into Thursday with advisory conditions possible. A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) breeze develops the remainder of the week. There is a low (10- 30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms today through the week with chances increasing this weekend as a cold front moves through the region.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 135 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Minimum relative humidity values are expected to drop slightly below 30% this afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon over the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country. This may lead to brief elevated fire weather conditions when combined with breezy southeasterly flow, and dry fuels. Min RH values are forecast to be higher the latter part of the week. A low chance of showers will return today across the Coastal Bend. A 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms can be expected at times through the work week, then increasing chances this weekend, which could help to improve fire weather conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 84 70 85 71 / 20 10 20 10 Victoria 85 67 86 68 / 20 0 20 10 Laredo 95 70 97 71 / 0 0 0 10 Alice 90 68 92 69 / 20 10 10 10 Rockport 81 70 81 72 / 20 10 20 10 Cotulla 93 68 97 70 / 0 0 0 10 Kingsville 87 68 89 70 / 20 10 10 10 Navy Corpus 79 71 79 72 / 30 10 30 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.