textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 208 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

- Moderate to occasionally High risk of heat-related impacts through this weekend, heat indices 105-110

- Low chances (15-30%) for sea breeze showers and storms through Monday. Higher chances (30-50%) around the Victoria Crossroads this weekend.

- Low to medium chances (20-40%) for sea breeze showers/storms Tuesday through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 208 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

No significant changes from the previous forecast package. Mid-level remnants of what was once Edouard will shift southwestward over South Texas today and move into Mexico late tonight, ushering in moisture well above-normal (PWATs 2-2.25"). The Victoria Crossroads will be the most favorable area for convection in South Texas, with more moisture, instability, and where mid-level PVA maxima resides. Therefore a 20-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms remains in the forecast for the Victoria Crossroads today, with everywhere else west very low at a 10-20%. I wouldn't be surprised for a few showers and thunderstorms to develop off the seabreeze given the abundance of moisture and what occurred yesterday afternoon. Rain chances increase a tad this Labor Day Weekend to 30-50%, with lingering chances into early-mid next week as additional tropical waves continue to usher in moisture and feed seabreeze convection.

As mentioned previously, temperatures will be difficult and least confident over the Victoria Crossroads where greater rain and sky coverage may be in play. According to the latest HREF probabilities, max temperatures are now only about at a 20% chance to go below 95 degrees over Victoria. The additional sky cover and rain coverage should keep us just below Heat Advisory criteria through the weekend. However, the WBGT UIL risk will remain in the moderate risk level with heat indices 105-110 and corresponding air temperatures from the mid 90s along the coast to 100-105 over the Brush Country.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 208 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

VFR conditions mainly expected throughout the TAF period. There's a low chance for showers and thunderstorms near VCT tomorrow, some of which could produce heavy rainfall at times and reduced VSBYs. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with southeasterly winds gusting to around 25KT.

MARINE

Issued at 208 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Gentle to moderate south to southeast flow with 2-3 ft seas is expected through the period. Low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms later today will continue each day into the middle of next week. The best chances today and this weekend will be north and east of Port Aransas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 208 AM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Relative humidity may briefly drop below 30% this afternoon over the Brush Country, but longevity should be short with moisture increasing over South Texas from remnants of what was once Edouard. Moisture and sky cover will continue to increase through Labor Day Weekend, limiting the fire weather threat into the middle of next week as minimum relative humidity stays around 35 percent or greater.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 97 79 95 78 / 10 10 20 0 Victoria 96 76 96 75 / 40 20 50 20 Laredo 104 79 102 78 / 10 10 20 30 Alice 100 75 100 75 / 10 10 30 0 Rockport 92 81 92 79 / 20 20 30 10 Cotulla 102 77 101 77 / 10 10 20 10 Kingsville 98 77 98 77 / 10 10 20 0 Navy Corpus 91 82 91 81 / 10 20 20 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.