textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 120 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- NHC has highlighted the area of disturbed weather over South Texas as Potential Tropical Cyclone One.

- Widespread moderate to heavy rain continues, especially along the coast. Moderate risk of flash flooding will diminish to a Marginal Risk by Wednesday.

- Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect Wednesday evening

- Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Wednesday evening

DISCUSSION

Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

The low pressure that has gifted us all of the rain will move offshore tonight and push northeast, generally along the Texas coast. This system has now been designated Potential Tropical Cyclone One by the NHC. We are not expected to see Tropical Storm conditions along the Middle Texas Coast, but there will still be some hazardous conditions.

Gusty winds will be possible along the immediate coast, particularly in Aransas and Calhoun counties. There could be a few wind gusts that reach tropical storm force, but conditions are not expected to be widespread or long-lasting.

The good news is that, while periods of heavy rain are still possible, much of the convection has diminished over the area. Another 1-3 inches of rain is still possible this afternoon and tonight along the coast, but we expect rain chances to diminish from west to east tonight as the low moves offshore. Hopefully, this will give us time to dry out a little before low to medium (20-50%) rain chances return Friday night through Saturday night. Fortunately, much lower rainfall totals and rain rates are expected in this drier regime.

Once the low moves off to the northeast, dry air will move in and temperatures will warm to above normal on Thursday. Heat index values could reach near 120 across the area, with the highest values along the inland Coastal Bend. Drier air will take hold allowing heat indices to be slightly lower on Friday, maxing out near 115, then generally from 102-109 through early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Heavy rainfall continue across portions of South Texas today and tonight as Potential Tropical Cyclone One moves across the area. Visibility and ceilings will vary between VFR and MVFR through 00Z, before becoming mainly VFR across the Brush Country and prevailing MVFR with periods of IFR across the Coastal Plains. Rain chances will finally diminish later tonight, with low to moderate chances remaining along the coast tonight through the end of the TAF period.

MARINE

Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Moderate to occasionally near gale (BF 4-7) winds are expected tonight through Wednesday as Potential Tropical Cyclone One enters the Middle Texas Coastal Waters. Gusts to or near tropical storm force (BF 7-8) are expected, with seas 5-7 feet. Heavy rain will continue over the waters through Wednesday night. Conditions could be squally at times. Behind this system, winds will remain moderate to fresh (BF 4-6), however, wave heights will remain elevated through Friday, leading to continuing Small Craft Advisory conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 75 92 80 95 / 30 30 10 0 Victoria 73 90 78 93 / 30 20 0 0 Laredo 73 95 79 102 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 73 91 78 97 / 20 0 0 0 Rockport 78 93 84 93 / 50 30 0 0 Cotulla 73 94 78 102 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 74 91 79 96 / 30 30 0 0 Navy Corpus 79 91 84 92 / 40 50 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ229>234-239>247- 342>347-442-443-447.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ345-442- 443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275.