textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 549 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

- Minor coastal flooding will be possible through Wednesday during high tide cycles

- Low chances of rain persists through the week

- A cold front will sweep through South Texas at the conclusion of the week bringing potential impacts

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

South Texas will remain relatively dry through the week outside of daily seabreeze convection paired with weak shortwaves passing through that will lead to low chances for activity. Warm temperatures will remain in place until Thursday. Guidance (GFS,Canadian,ECMWF) has remained in agreement that a cold front is expected to swing through the region at the conclusion of the week. The timing will appears to be late Friday into early Saturday. One of the likely impacts that guidance still is hinting at is windy conditions especially over the waters. Small Craft Advisory conditions will likely be expected with the possibility for Gale conditions. The strength of the front still remains a bit in question. With the differences in the guidance remaining confidence unfortunately will remain low at this time, though we continue to monitoring the trends. Things will become more clear when we are in range of the higher resolution models. Although rain chances have decreased a bit from previous forecast, showers and thunderstorms will still be possible with the frontal passage.

Otherwise, today we likely still see continued minor coastal flooding in the region. Still expecting a continued downtrend, though noticed some spots where tides reached higher than normal. Decision was made to extend the Coastal Flood Advisory until early Wednesday morning. Another extension maybe possible as PE-TSS still maintains tides around 1.8 MSL. Will continue to monitor the webcams and guidance through the day today.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 549 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Generally VFR conditions are expected to prevail after some periods of MVFR ceilings across South Texas through late this morning. Gusty southeasterly winds are expected again this afternoon. An isolated shower is possible for our eastern sites, but low chances will keep this out of the TAFs.

MARINE

Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Moderate to occasionally fresh (BF 4-5) onshore flow will persist through much of the week with relatively low rain chances. A cold front is expected to move across the waters late Friday into Saturday, shifting winds to the northeast and increasing to fresh to strong levels, with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected and the possibility for gale conditions. Elevated seas are also expected, while rain chances diminish in the wake of the front.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1241 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Will not expect elevated fire weather conditions through the week. Above normal moisture in the region and relatively light winds will limit concerns. A cold front is expected to move through South Texas this weekend, bringing cooler temperatures and potentially stronger northerly winds. Despite the possibility of elevated winds behind the front, relatively high humidity, periodic rain chances, and low ERC percentiles should limit overall fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 93 79 91 75 / 0 0 10 0 Victoria 95 76 93 70 / 20 0 30 0 Laredo 99 77 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 96 76 94 73 / 10 0 20 0 Rockport 91 80 89 77 / 10 10 10 0 Cotulla 99 77 99 74 / 0 0 10 0 Kingsville 94 77 92 74 / 0 0 20 0 Navy Corpus 89 81 88 80 / 10 10 10 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Wednesday for TXZ245- 342>347-442-443-447.

GM...None.