textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 639 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

- Coastal flooding rip currents will be likely later this week into the weekend due to Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias

- Generally dry across South Texas through the week and into the weekend with a low chance of rain by early in the workweek and again later in the week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Weak midlevel ridging will be in place across South Texas through the weekend, maintaining generally warm and dry conditions with above-normal temperatures. Subsidence associated with the ridge should suppress most convective development today and tomorrow. However, increasing low-level moisture beginning Sunday may support a few showers to kick off the work week, primarily across the coastal waters and eastern portions of the CWA. Otherwise, temperatures will remain above normal with generally light to moderate onshore flow.

As a surge of deeper tropical moisture is expected to spread across South Texas early in the week, GEFS ensemble mean PWAT values are expected to increase to around 2.2-2.3 inches, approaching or exceeding 2 standard deviations above climatological norms. Despite the anomalously high moisture content, forcing for ascent appears rather limited as weak midlevel ridging persists across the region. Little appreciable midlevel PVA is indicated by the GFS, while surface convergence should remain largely confined to the sea breeze with a potential boundary just offshore. Nevertheless, the moisture- rich environment may be sufficient to support a low (20-35%) chance of isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms, particularly across the eastern half of the CWA and adjacent coastal waters. Although, coverage may be limited by the lack of stronger forcing.

Rain chances should diminish late Monday while temperatures remain elevated through much of the workweek. Forecast confidence decreases considerably the second half of the week as deterministic guidance diverges significantly regarding the evolution of a potentially strong cold front. The GFS depicts a substantial southward surge of colder air, bringing a frontal passage through South Texas next weekend, while the Euro keeps the boundary well north of the region. GEFS temperature anomalies lend some support to a cooler pattern developing across much of Texas, although considerable uncertainty remains regarding the progression of the front and how far south the colder air will penetrate. Given these differences, confidence remains low. For now, will maintain a more conservative temperature and precipitation forecast while monitoring subsequent model and ensemble trends for greater consistency.

Minor coastal flooding is expected to continue to be a threat at least for the next few days as tides remain elevated, but this should gradually diminish with the seas as P-ETSS guidance suggests water levels could remain at or near 2.0 feet MSL through Wednesday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 639 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR conditions can be expected to prevail through the period. There will be a low chance for MVFR cigs around the COT terminal, though with confidence remaining low, the decision was made to keep it out of the TAFs. Winds will go relatively light this evening before increasing around midmorning across all terminals. The winds will be out of the southeast around 15 sustained with gusts to 20-25 kts through the early evening hours.

MARINE

Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

An East-Northeasterly gentle to moderate breeze (BF 3-4) will veer back onshore through the day today and persist into the middle of next week becoming Fresh (BF-5) at times. After which, flow will steadily increase and back to the northeast as we head into next weekend in response to an approaching front. Confidence remains low in regards to the southward extent and timing of the front but generally expecting Small Craft Advisory conditions to develop across the waters next weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 147 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

In addition to the above average temperatures and generally rain- free conditions this weekend, minimum RH values around 30-40% will steadily increase over the next few days due to deeper tropical moisture moving into the region. Low rain chances may lead to some showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms early next week and again mid- to late in the week as a strong cold front potentially approaches the region. Onshore flow will generally remain light for much of the week and elevated fire weather conditions are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 75 90 77 92 / 0 0 10 20 Victoria 69 94 73 95 / 0 0 10 30 Laredo 74 95 76 98 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 70 92 73 95 / 0 10 10 20 Rockport 77 88 79 91 / 0 0 20 20 Cotulla 71 96 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 72 90 75 93 / 0 10 10 20 Navy Corpus 79 87 81 89 / 0 0 20 20

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Monday for TXZ245-342>347- 442-443-447.

High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ345-442-443- 447.

GM...None.