textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1241 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

- Low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms return mid week.

- Cold front expected Thursday.

- Minor coastal flooding and moderate to high risk of rip currents possible Thursday-Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Mostly clear skies and light winds expected tonight will allow for radiational cooling, thus another night of cool temperatures. A warming trend and increasing clouds begins Monday with a moderate risk of heat related impacts by Tuesday and Wednesday. The moderate heat risk will generally be across most of S TX, except the Victoria Crossroads.

Rain chances return to the Victoria Crossroads by mid week then spread across S TX the remainder of the work week and into next weekend. Generally the chance for showers and thunderstorms are low to medium (20%-40%). This is in response to the mid level high pressure system (currently centered southwest of BRO over Mexico) shifting east and a southwest flow aloft with embedded short waves developing and tracking across the region. A deepening mid/upper low pressure system is forecast to move toward Mexico mid week. The GFS shows this system becoming a cut-off low centered over western Mexico by Thursday.

At the surface, a dryline/surface low is progged to develop across S TX Wednesday and will combine with an embedded short wave and deepening moisture to produce isolated to scattered storms across the Victoria Crossroads. Farther south and west, the capping inversion will likely keep convection from developing. By Thursday, models indicate a cold front moving through S TX with scattered storms developing ahead and along the cold front. Behind the cold front, elevated scattered convection is expected. Surface winds go from northeast to southeast Friday as a warm front lifts north. In addition, the main upper low tracks toward S TX, bringing additional showers and thunderstorms Friday through the weekend.

Models have been consistently indicating a cold front Thursday, thus confidence is improving, but there remains some uncertainty given the time of year.

If the cold front makes it through S TX, cooler temperatures can be expected the latter half of the work week, then warming through the weekend.

Minor coastal flooding and moderate to high rip current risk is possible Thursday and Friday due to a moderate northeast flow developing across the western gulf behind the cold front along with increasing seas and swells.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions expected across S TX through the TAF cycle. A few mid and upper level clouds can be expected today with a few lower clouds overnight. Light and variable winds will increase through the afternoon to around 10 knots from the southeast. South to southeast wind 10-15 knots is expected by mid morning Monday and 15-20 knots by afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) east to southeast breeze expected tonight. A fresh (BF 5) onshore flow is expected to develop by Monday afternoon and continue through Tuesday. Winds may briefly reach advisory levels Tuesday afternoon for the bays and nearshore waters south of Port Aransas. The chance for showers and thunderstorms returns the latter part of the week in response to an approaching cold front. A fresh (BF 5) northeast flow is expected to develop behind the cold front Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Relative humidity values will generally remain at or above 35% through the forecast period. This, combined with winds less than 20 mph and ERC in the 0-40 percentile will prevent fire weather concerns. Wetting rains expected to return the latter half of the week in response to an approaching cold front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 64 84 73 88 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 59 84 69 87 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 65 89 72 98 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 61 89 70 95 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 70 83 75 86 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 63 90 70 97 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 63 86 71 93 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 71 81 76 84 / 0 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ345- 442-443-447.

GM...None.