textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 636 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

- Widespread rainfall this weekend associated with a cold front

- Stronger and slower storms capable of 2-3 inch rainfall amounts

- Below-normal temps through mid-week

- Monitoring minor coastal flooding Saturday morning

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

The long-anticipated cold front is finally is within reach. Latest forecast calls for the timing to generally occur Saturday night. Before the front arrives, light scattered showers will develop in the warm sector. As the cold front approaches, so does the overall widespread coverage of more moderate rainfall and stronger showers and thunderstorms. While some CAMs are showing some beefier composite reflectivity's as the cold front approaches, this will be very dependent on the breaks of the cloud deck to increase CAPE values. Inhibiting severe hazards will also be the lack of deep shear in the pre-frontal environment and along the front. While this means that SPC has removed the marginal risk for Saturday night, an isolated stronger storm is not out of the realm of possibilities. This will be closely monitored based on the overnight CAM runs.

The return of rainfall paints a broad area of 1 inch forecast rainfall amounts throughout South Texas, though areas along the Rio Grande will have the greatest chances for 2-3 inches of rainfall given the more convective nature of storms and due to slow-moving storms. Any rainfall in our region would be a welcome site given the on-going long-term drought and while this event is not one that will see major improvement, what it will provide is a quenching of soil moisture. We will have to monitor the Laredo urban area as a 2-3 inch rainfall dump would result in urban flooding concerns, so be aware if traveling through this region. Rain chances will start diminishing from north to south Monday morning and pushing into Deep South Texas Monday night.

Temperature-wise, the cold front and rain chances will keep the area below-normal for temps this Easter weekend (10-20 degrees below normal for early April high temps). Temperatures increase to near- normal values by mid-week with the return of onshore flow.

One last thing worth mentioning is that with the recent full moon phase and wave periods hovering between 7-8 seconds, the chance for minor coastal flooding will be greatest near high tide Saturday morning (high tide will occur around 7am off the Port Aransas jetties). With increased beach traffic expected this holiday weekend, please be mindful of the water being near the dunes. Will discuss with the evening crew to see if a coastal flood advisory may be needed.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

MVFR ceilings are expected to redevelop over the next few hours with a chance for brief periods of IFR conditions. Due to uncertainty on when exactly the showers and/or thunderstorms will begin impacting sites, continued to use PROB30's and will amend as needed. Highest confidence for more persistent showers will be around 15-18z tomorrow. VFR conditions could return tomorrow around 18z but also wouldn't be surprised if we remain MVFR throughout this TAF cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Fresh to strong (BF 5-6) southeasterly winds will wane after midnight and remain at a gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) breeze prior to the cold front Saturday night. By Sunday morning, 20-25 kt northeasterly winds will increase seas to 4-6 ft Monday morning and then to 6-7 ft by Monday afternoon. With the cold front, rain chances will increase Saturday night (70-90% chance) through Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 215 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

From this weekend, rain chances across much of South Texas, keeping the fire risk low. Chances for a wetting rain rain remain high across much of the region. Min RH's will remain above 40% through mid week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 71 85 62 70 / 20 30 80 70 Victoria 69 85 57 70 / 20 60 60 40 Laredo 74 90 59 64 / 30 70 90 80 Alice 71 89 60 70 / 20 50 80 70 Rockport 72 82 62 75 / 10 30 80 60 Cotulla 71 85 57 65 / 50 70 70 60 Kingsville 71 88 61 70 / 20 30 90 70 Navy Corpus 73 80 65 71 / 20 20 90 70

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275.