textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 601 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

- Moderate to major heat risk Wednesday. Practice heat safety, for more information: weather.gov/heat

- Cold front Thursday will bring low to medium rain chances (20- 50%) heading into the weekend.

- Unsettled weather pattern to continue into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

A mid-level ridge centered over the Bay of Campeche will maintain hot and dry conditions through Wednesday night. Temperatures today are expected to climb into the upper 80s to mid-90s east to near 100 degrees across the Rio Grande Plains, with widespread heat index values between 100-110 degrees.

By Thursday morning, an approaching upper-level system will push a cold front southward into South Texas. This boundary, combined with increasing large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper- level trough and elevated PWATs, will provide favorable conditions for shower and thunderstorm development. Rain chances will increase from north to south beginning on Thursday, with the greatest coverage expected Thursday afternoon into Friday. In the wake of the frontal passage, temperatures will trend slightly cooler, with highs generally ranging from the mid-70s to mid-80s on Thursday and Friday and lows settling into the mid-60s to mid-70s.

Heading into the weekend, while confidence has increased in regards to the evolution of our upper-level pattern, there is still some split in model solutions. Right now, there is more weight being placed in a slower progression of an upper-level trough which would allow lingering showers and thunderstorms to persist into Saturday versus a faster solution which would shift precipitation chances eastward more quickly. Because there is currently more agreement with the slower solution, rain chances have increased through Saturday, currently sitting at a low to medium (20-50%) chance across much of the region. Ensemble guidance suggests rainfall totals will generally range from around 0.50" to locally over 1.00".

Looking into early next week, another, weaker, cold front may move into South Texas as a broader trough develops over the central CONUS. This boundary could introduce additional low-end rain chances, but details will become better resolved as we get closer to time.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 601 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

MVFR ceilings prevail this morning and will continue through midday when most terminals will improve to MVFR. CRP and VCT are likely to hold onto the MVFR ceilings through today. Ceilings will drop back to MVFR, with periods of IFR for ALI, CRP, and VCT tonight. There is the chance of some -DZ this morning over the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. Some guidance is hinting at a slightly earlier arrival time for some showers and thunderstorms early Thursday morning, but this seems early so will stick with the same timing as in the forecast (late afternoon evening Thursday).

MARINE

Issued at 145 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) southeasterly breeze will dominate Wednesday and Wednesday night, before shifting northeasterly becoming moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) behind a cold front Thursday. Northeasterly flow shifts back east-southeasterly and weakens this weekend to become light to gentle (BF 2-3). Low to medium (20-40%) shower and thunderstorm chances will persist Thursday through at least Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 145 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Relative humidity values will generally remain at or above 35% through the forecast period. This, combined with sustained 20 foot winds less than 20 mph and Energy Release Components (ERCs) below the 25th percentile will prevent fire weather concerns. Rain chances are expected to return Thursday in response to an approaching cold front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 91 77 84 74 / 0 0 40 50 Victoria 88 72 78 67 / 10 0 30 40 Laredo 99 77 87 70 / 0 10 40 50 Alice 96 76 84 71 / 0 0 40 50 Rockport 88 77 84 73 / 10 0 40 40 Cotulla 94 74 80 66 / 0 0 30 30 Kingsville 93 77 84 73 / 0 0 40 50 Navy Corpus 86 78 83 76 / 10 0 40 50

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.