textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 620 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

- Shower/thunderstorm chances today will trend drier through Saturday

- Moderate to Major HeatRisk across South Texas this week

- High rip current risk today dropping to a moderate risk Tuesday

- Low confidence in increased seabreeze showers/thunderstorms by the upcoming weekend with an increase in surf conditions

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

The last bits of diminishing sub-tropical jet streak combined with a surge of tropical moisture from the Bay of Campeche will bring one last bout of 30-50% chances of showers/thunderstorms for South Texas. For the morning commute, showers/thunderstorms develop along the coastal plains, but by this afternoon, any outflow boundaries and seabreeze will push these rain chances inland into the Brush Country. With PWATs already back to ~2.30 inches from the 00Z 8 June KCRP sounding, the atmosphere is primed to drop a quick 1-3 inches of rainfall in the strongest storms. It'll be worth monitoring for any slow-moving/training storms over saturated soils, allowing for quick ponding/localized flooding, though this will remain isolated in nature.

Moving forward through the rest of the week, high pressure dominates really diminishing our rain chances (though remaining non-zero and primarily driven by the seabreeze, meaning short-lived, weaker showers/storms). The main hazard then shifts to the HeatRisk which will be a Moderate Risk (level 2 of 4) across South Texas. Heat indices will range from 100-110F this week. Those on the higher end of that range will see scattered areas of a Major HeatRisk (level 3 of 4). By this weekend, a plume of tropical-moisture moves around the periphery of the mid-level high pressure allowing for 10-30% chances of showers, allowing the seabreeze to have more scattered seabreeze convection and extra moisture to wring out. Confidence this far out is low for any amounts, but for those heading out to the beach, always have a plan to quickly go into your vehicle/indoors to wait out the shower/storm. Speaking of beach...

While the southeast breeze will persist through the forecast period, we see a brief reprieve of fresh breezes finally lowering the rip current risk to a moderate risk by Tuesday morning. The greatest risk for minor coastal flooding has past for the full moon influence. That said, the new moon arrives next Sunday, and with the latest models and wave height/period for that time period, messaging may increase again for rip current/minor coastal flooding monitoring in the latter-half of the week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

A few showers have been observed overnight mostly over eastern portions of South Texas, but chances continue through the morning hours and taper off during the afternoon. VFR conditions are generally expected except for in and around storms. Winds this afternoon out of the southeast will gust to around 20-25 kt. Expecting another round of MVFR to possibly IFR CIGs overnight tonight, followed by dry conditions and clearer skies.

MARINE

Issued at 140 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Rain chances increase across the Middle Texas coast this morning and then spreading inland in the afternoon. Winds may be gusty and erratic under a strong thunderstorm, otherwise frequent lightning would be the greatest threat. We then trend drier through the upcoming weekend. Southeast winds will persist at moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) strength through the weekend with 3-5 ft seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 140 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Today, morning showers and thunderstorms along the coast move inland into the Brush Country by this afternoon resulting in wetting rain directly under storms. Rain chances then become low-end chances (less than 15%) through Saturday. Due to the recent-green up combined with minimum relative humidity values greater than 40%, the fire risk remains low.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 88 79 89 79 / 50 10 10 0 Victoria 88 75 91 75 / 30 0 0 10 Laredo 94 77 96 76 / 30 0 0 0 Alice 89 77 91 75 / 40 10 0 0 Rockport 89 81 90 81 / 30 0 10 10 Cotulla 94 77 95 75 / 40 10 0 0 Kingsville 88 78 89 77 / 40 10 0 0 Navy Corpus 88 82 88 82 / 30 0 10 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for TXZ345-442-443- 447.

GM...None.