textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 127 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

- Dry conditions expected through at least midweek.

- Seasonably hot weather continues through the week with a moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts. Peak heat indices will likely range between 105-110 degF.

- Tropical Storm Bertha is forecast to move generally westward across the northern Gulf through late week with limited direct impacts currently expected for South Texas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Little overall change to the forecast. Mid-level ridging will remain the dominant feature across South Texas through much of the week, supporting a continuation of hot temperatures and generally rain- free conditions through Wednesday. Afternoon highs will range mid 90s to around 105 degrees across portions of the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. Despite some afternoon mixing, heat indices are still expected to peak between 105-110 degrees each day, resulting in a continued moderate to locally major Heat Risk. Heat Advisories may be needed this week if forecast trends continue.

Forecast confidence decreases late in the week as Tropical Storm Bertha moves westward across the northern Gulf. Although the latest forecast keeps the center near the northern Gulf Coast with gradual weakening expected as it approaches the LA/TX border, uncertainty remains regarding both the exact track and the westward extent of tropical moisture. At this time, the greatest impacts are expected to remain east of South Texas, but low rain chances have been maintained from the coast inland across the Coastal Plains late this week into the weekend to account for the possibility of outer rain bands or deeper tropical moisture extending farther west than indicated by the current forecast.

Regardless of the cyclone's exact track, increasing easterly swell will likely reach the Middle Texas Coast beginning late this week, resulting in a possible increase of marine hazards and a heightened risk of dangerous rip currents. Interests along the Texas Coast should continue monitoring the latest forecast as confidence in the system's evolution is expected to improve over the coming days.

Air temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal normals through early next week, with hot afternoons in the mid 90s to around 105, warm overnight lows in the mid 70s to lower 80s, and only isolated to scattered showers possible if tropical moisture reaches the region.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 127 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Mostly clear skies and light winds early this morning will promote low ceilings and fog to develop over the inland Coastal Plains, mainly from ALI to VCT, but stretching into CRP. I wouldn't be surprised if dense fog was to form less than 1/4 mile between 09-14Z. VFR conditions prevail by 15Z across all terminals and southeasterly winds will remain light at a sustained 5- 10 knots with gusts nearing 20 knots in the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 127 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) southerly flow will persist through the week, with seas building to around 3-5 feet by midweek. Will continue monitoring Tropical Storm Bertha over the northeastern Gulf. Although uncertainty remains regarding the eventual track and intensity of the system, expecting limited direct impacts to the Middle Texas Coast. Mariners should expect building easterly swell, increasing seas, and low to moderate shower and thunderstorm chances around midweek. Forecast details will continue to be refined as additional observational data becomes available.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 127 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Probabilities for rain are minimal through the period with only a low (15% or less) chance Thursday in response to approaching Tropical Storm Bertha. Although direct impacts are not currently expected from this storm, will have to monitor the evolution of this system regarding rain chances and deeper tropical moisture late in the week. Regardless, winds are forecast to be light with low ERC percentiles as the limiting factors. Min RH values out west do drop to around 20-30% but considering the limiting factors combined with a normal fuel dryness factor, not expecting elevated fire weather conditions at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 99 74 100 78 / 0 0 0 10 Victoria 101 74 103 78 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 107 78 107 81 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 103 73 104 77 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 92 79 94 81 / 0 0 0 10 Cotulla 105 77 106 81 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 100 72 102 76 / 0 0 0 10 Navy Corpus 91 79 92 81 / 0 0 0 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.