textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 126 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

- Moderate risk of heat-related impacts this weekend into the middle of next week

- Daily low to medium rain chances (20-40%) next work week

- Potential for minor coastal flooding increases this weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Another medium chance (50%) of fog developing this morning across the Coastal Plains due to weak southerly winds along with clear skies. Given persistence and increased chances, confidence is greatest over the Victoria Crossroads.

Mid-level ridging will keep warm and rain-free conditions intact through Saturday, before a series of embedded mid-level shortwaves developing downstream of a deep trough progresses over South Texas repeatedly next week. In addition to these shortwaves, increased Pacific moisture pushing PWATs to around 2.0" (99th percentile) and 925mb mean specific humidity climatological max will lead to daily low to medium rain chances and extremely warm minimum temperatures. High dewpoints in the upper 70s to around 80 will reflect the near record high minimums from Sunday morning through Wednesday morning. Highs from the mid 80s to mid 90s in combination of these extremely warm dewpoints, will likely result in max heat indices of 100-110 Sunday through Tuesday. These hot feels-like temperatures in combination of low overnight recovery from heat, will promote a moderate risk of heat-related impacts.

In terms of rainfall, the long-range ensemble forecast (LREF) that incorporates GEFS, GEPS, and ENS consisted of 100 members shows a 30- 50% chance of greater than 1" rainfall through Wednesday, with greater amounts north. Lastly, there remains the potential for minor coastal flooding later this weekend into next week as well. A new moon occurs Saturday and persistent breezy southeasterly winds will likely result in greater swell periods of 6-8 seconds and wave run- up to push water near the dunes.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 126 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Hi-res guidance continues to show the greatest (near 50% chance) for IFR/LIFR conditions brought on by dense fog/VIS reduction for the inland coastal plains (with TEMPO groups reflecting this degradation in flight category for KVCT/KALI). While not as dense as further inland, KCRP also has a brief opportunity for MVFR conditions should patchy fog move through. Otherwise, terminals improve to VFR by 15Z with winds turning to a SE'ly flow through the afternoon at 10-15 kts sustained.

MARINE

Issued at 126 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

A light to gentle (BF 2-3) south to southeasterly flow will continue through today. Southeasterly flow strengthens to moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) tonight and will continue into the middle of next week. Low to medium (20-40%) rain chances return next work week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 126 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

No elevated fire weather conditions are expected into the middle of next week. Although minimum relative humidity may drop to 25-30% this afternoon, winds will likely remain below elevated criteria. Moisture increases significantly later this weekend into next week, bringing minimum relative humidity to only 45-50% over the Brush Country, along with daily low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 89 72 88 74 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 91 68 89 71 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 96 71 97 72 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 93 68 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 87 76 87 77 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 96 69 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 90 70 90 73 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 84 76 84 78 / 0 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.