textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

- Moderate to Extreme risk of heat-related impacts through next week, with peak heat indices 110 to 115.

- Borderline elevated fire weather conditions over the Rio Grande Plains daily.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Little overall change is expected through the forecast period as a mid-level ridge remains the dominant feature across South Texas. Hot and generally rain-free conditions will persist through the next week, with afternoon highs ranging from the 90s across the Coastal Bend to around 105 degrees over portions of the Rio Grande Plains. Heat indices will continue to peak around 110+ degrees at times, maintaining a moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts across much of the region.

By the latter half of the week, guidance continues to show a mid to upper-level trough progressing eastward across the Midwest and Great Lakes, with little direct influence expected across South Texas. However, some model guidance is beginning to indicate the development of a weak inverted trough across the western Gulf and Deep South Texas as we head into next weekend. Should this feature materialize, pockets of deeper moisture could spread over portions of the region and lead to increasing rain chances next weekend. Overall, ensemble guidance has below normal PWATs preceding this weak feature and confidence remains low so very low PoPs are warranted for now. Otherwise, above-normal temperatures and typical summertime southeasterly flow are expected to continue through the period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Expect mainly VFR conditions again through the forecast period, though brief MVFR CIGS will be possible for ALI and VCT. Gusty winds are expected to develop once again for Saturday afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

A gentle to moderate onshore flow can generally be expected through the forecast period, with occasional light flow at times. Winds shift to a more southerly direction around mid-week. Seas will generally range from 2-4 feet. Rain chances over the coastal waters remain very low, generally less than 10%, with isolated areas offshore up to around 20% on Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Gusty winds, hot temperatures, dry fuels, and low afternoon relative humidity values will continue to support elevated fire weather conditions across the Brush Country through the weekend. Sustained winds around 15 mph with afternoon and evening gusts of 20-30 mph will overlap minimum RH values near 25%. ERC values are approaching the 90th percentile, while RFTI values of 2-3 are forecast tomorrow, resulting in near critical conditions. A Fire Danger Statement will be issued for now, though conditions will continue to be monitored for the potential need for a Red Flag Warning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 97 78 97 78 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 98 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 104 77 103 77 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 99 75 99 74 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 92 81 92 81 / 0 0 10 0 Cotulla 104 75 104 75 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 98 76 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 91 82 91 81 / 10 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.