textproduct: Corpus Christi

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 113 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Key Messages:

- Slight Risk for Severe Storms in Victoria area this afternoon

- Above normal temperatures next few days

Surface warm front was located along the barrier islands and expected to lift northward across the forecast area this morning. This boundary is being drawn northward by a mid-level trough that is forecast to propagate across north Texas today. Expect low ceilings, patchy drizzle and fog until the boundary lifts north. Then there is a small window (18-20z) for convection across the Victoria area as the tail end of the trough swings through. The atmosphere is expected to destabilze in the Victoria area the with CAPES increasing to around 1800 j/kg, decreasing CAP with deep layer shear of 35-40kts. Thus a few storms could be strong or severe with the primary concern being large hail. SPC has highlighted the aformentioned area in a Slight Risk for today. That said, most of the CAMs guidance indicates convection should just miss Victoria to the east.

In the wake of the mid-level trough, expect clearing from west to east this afternoon allowing temps to heat up into the lower 80s. Conditions look foggy for tonight as boundary layer moisture remains but conditions dry out aloft. Will likely need a Dense Fog Advisory for much of the area. Friday looks warm again with max temps reaching the mid 80s which is about 10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 113 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Key Messages:

- Very warm with above normal temperatures continue this weekend into Monday.

- Next noticeable cold front early next week.

The 500 mb shortwave trough moves out of the Pac NW Friday evening and into SE Kansas by Saturday morning, which produces sfc cyclogenesis in the Panhandle. The resulting deepening produces a cold front in West Texas and a warm front in East Texas. A secondary shortwave dives into the base of the 500 mb low, across N Texas, pushing the sfc low east either into the Ozarks (GFS) or East Texas (ECMWF). Precipitation stays off shore as the 500 mb shortwave digs more to the east of the Victoria Crossroads and the cold front washes out with the cooler air staying north of the Hill Country. Temperatures drop a bit from the Mid 80s on Saturday to the upper 70s-lower 80s Sunday. However, with the the 500 mb and sfc high moving off to the east or northeast we get ridging and temperatures get much above normal with highs ranging lower 80s in the Victoria Crossroads to around 90s in the Rio Grande Plains Monday. Considering that the 75th percentile for the highs that day are running in the upper 80s to lower 90s, it won't be surprising if LRD would be over 90F. However, the very warm temperatures look to be short lived, as the next cold front moves into the region. The front looks strong from a temperature stand point, with expected highs of ranging through the 70s on Tuesday, However, with all of the dry air there isn't any rain expected, on the ECMWF. The GFS has very light precipitation. considering the thermal strength, the rain can't be discounted. The NBM is between 10% and 20% chance along the Coastal Bend. Will leave the NBM, and we'll see how the GFS does over the next few days.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 528 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Low ceilings will prevail across South Texas terminals this morning ahead of a surface warm front that is starting to move north through the area. Included tempo groups for LIFR conditions through 15z. Then ceilings should start to climb becoming VFR by midday for LRD-ALI-CRP as the warm front moves north. Included a chance for storms in VCT terminal as an upper disturbance moves through that area between 17-20z. Then improving conditions with clearing skies thereafter. Winds will gradually shift to the west then northwest by late in the day as a weak front stalls along the coast. Expecting a foggy night tonight as surface moisture remains while dry air moves in aloft. This will set the stage for radiation fog bringing a high chance for LIFR conditions due to dense fog after midnight for locations east of highway 281.

MARINE

Issued at 113 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

A weak to moderate onshore flow will develop today and persist through Saturday. The flow will become northerly Saturday night behind a weak cold front. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected today through Saturday ahead of the cold front. Winds will quickly shift back to the southeast by Sunday afternoon. A second stronger cold front is expected early next week, and weak to moderate north flow.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 81 56 81 62 / 20 0 0 0 Victoria 79 51 80 58 / 60 10 10 10 Laredo 81 51 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 82 51 83 59 / 10 0 0 0 Rockport 77 58 76 62 / 30 10 0 10 Cotulla 81 49 83 56 / 10 0 0 0 Kingsville 81 54 83 60 / 10 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 75 61 74 65 / 20 0 0 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ232>234- 246.

GM...None.