textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 520 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

- Low chance (20-40%) of patchy fog inland tonight into Tuesday morning

- Elevated Fire Weather conditions possible Tuesday afternoon across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains

- Low rain chances midweek, increasing to medium rain chances (30-60%) this weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1159 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

No significant forecast changes. Above normal temperatures through Friday with mainly rain-free conditions with the exception of Wednesday when a shortwave interacts with near normal moisture over South Texas.

A deep trough over the western CONUS will develop a cut-off low over Baja California this weekend and slowly move eastward into northern Mexico early next week, ushering in moisture across the region. This will bring 99th percentile moisture over the area ahead of a decaying cold front in combination of mid-level PVA and an inverted surface trough. All these factors continue to lead to a medium (30-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms across South Texas this weekend, with lower chances lingering into early next week.

For rainfall estimates Saturday through Monday, we're generally looking between 0.50-2.00" across the Nueces Basin. The ECENS is more bullish with amounts whereas the GEFS and GEPS is lower. The ECENS EFI (Extreme Forecast Index) for the 24-hr rainfall from Saturday night through Sunday, does range in the unusual event range of 0.6-0.8. In support, the shift-of-tails (SOT) is up to 2 over the northern Nueces Basin, indicating an extreme event potential in relation to the ECMWF model climate. The climatology for this time of the year is not significant, just 1-3" for the month of March in the upper Nueces River Basin, but we'll take a statistically significant event for beneficial rain!

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 520 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

VFR conditions will lower to periods of MVFR VSBYs and a mix of MVFR and LIFR CIGs overnight into early Tuesday morning. VFR conditions resume by mid to late morning. Gusty winds this afternoon will relax through 02-03Z, then strengthen again Tuesday with gusts generally around 25 knots. Could see gusts up to 30 knots for CRP TAF site.

MARINE

Issued at 1159 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

A generally moderate (BF 4) onshore breeze will continue into early Tuesday. Onshore winds are expected to increase to a moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) breeze by Tuesday afternoon and continue through the remainder of the week. Winds across the bays and nearshore waters south of Port Aransas may become strong (BF 6) at times the latter half of the week. Winds relax a bit to gentle to moderate early next week. There is a low 5-15% chance of showers Tuesday through Wednesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase to a low to medium, 20-40%, this weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1159 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Onshore flow will maintain elevated humidity across South Texas. However, fuels remain cured, thus elevated fire weather conditions are possible Tuesday afternoon across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country, when minimum RH values will be in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Winds will increase to 15-25 mph and higher gusts each afternoon Tuesday through Friday, but this will also increase minimum relative humidity values through the remainder of the week. Low rain chances Wednesday, increase to a medium (30-60%) chance through this upcoming weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 66 84 69 83 / 0 0 10 10 Victoria 63 83 66 83 / 0 0 10 20 Laredo 65 93 69 93 / 0 0 0 10 Alice 63 89 68 88 / 0 0 10 20 Rockport 67 80 68 80 / 0 0 10 10 Cotulla 63 91 68 91 / 0 0 0 20 Kingsville 65 88 68 86 / 0 0 10 10 Navy Corpus 68 78 69 77 / 0 0 10 20

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.