textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 517 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

- High chance of tropical development in the Bay of Campeche this week with coastal flooding and rip currents the primary concern for South Texas.

- A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect until 7 PM tonight and may need to be extended through the week.

- Generally dry across South Texas much of the week. A low chance could develop late in the week, but depends on tropical development.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 123 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

The boundary that pushed through our area this weekend is stalled offshore and will help to keep the focus of convection into our offshore waters over the next couple of days. We could get an isolated shower into the coastal bend as we saw yesterday afternoon, but this will remain very limited. Ultimated, this boundary will also help to steer any potential tropical system away from the Texas coast late this week and into the weekend. There is currently an 80% of development by late this week, with guidance now in general agreement of an east and then northern track toward the northern Gulf Coast. The main potential impact to our area would be increased swells that could result in higher tide levels (coastal flooding) and an increased potential for rip currents. We'll have to wait and see how things play out, but this system could also bring an increase in temperatures to our area by late in the week as drier air wraps around from the north. Until then, high temperatures will generally be in the upper 80s and lower 90s

We're still monitoring coastal flooding early this week, and it has been a challenge. Despite tide levels reaching 2ft above MSL along the coast, water did not push far up the beaches yesterday. Suspect this is at least in part due to short (5-7 second) swell periods. Longer periods have more energy and are able to push up the beach farther. Wave periods are expected to continue to be low, so its possible coastal flooding will be minimal, but the tide heights, approaching new moon and a seasonal high time warrant precautions.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 517 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF cycle with only isolated showers along the barrier islands this afternoon. Some stray showers may pop up near KALI after 20Z, but chances for this are too low to mention in the TAF.

MARINE

Issued at 123 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Northeasterly winds at moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) levels continue through Wednesday before increasing to fresh and strong levels Thursday, especially offshore. Winds later in the week are expected to subside a bit. Late week conditions may be influenced by potential tropical development. Keep up with the latest forecasts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 123 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

No significant fire weather concerns are anticipated through the work week with mainly moderate humidity levels and weak winds. Rain chances are mainly minimal through the week and the upcoming weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 89 73 90 73 / 10 10 20 10 Victoria 92 69 94 70 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 91 70 91 70 / 0 0 0 10 Alice 90 70 91 70 / 10 10 10 0 Rockport 90 74 91 75 / 10 10 20 0 Cotulla 90 69 91 71 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 90 71 91 72 / 10 10 20 10 Navy Corpus 87 77 88 78 / 20 20 20 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ345- 442-443-447.

GM...None.