textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 512 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

- Patchy to areas of fog possible through tomorrow morning.

- Cold front passage Saturday will bring the potential for showers and storms, primarily for our northernmost counties.

- Storm Prediction Center has the northern Brush Country, northern Coastal Plains, and the Victoria Crossroads in a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk of severe thunderstorms on Saturday.

- Drier air post front coupled with breezy winds and dry fuels could lead to increased fire weather concerns this weekend and early next week.

- Front will provide little relief, with above average temperatures expected to continue into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1152 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Our primary short-term concern continues to be the potential for fog each morning through Saturday, with the greatest risk for dense fog occurring early this morning across the Coastal Plains and the Victoria Crossroads. Fog coverage should become more limited late tonight into Saturday as cloud cover and precipitation increase ahead of our well-advertised approaching cold front. Sea fog development remains marginal, as sea surface temperatures are in the low to mid-60s and surface dewpoints are generally in the mid-60s. Any increase in dewpoints into the upper 60s would improve the potential for patchy sea fog, but confidence remains limited.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will begin to increase across the region tonight as an upper level trough moves eastward from the western CONUS and allows for an associated surface low and cold front to progress eastward as well. Thunderstorms are expected to remain along and ahead of the advancing front and may organize into a broken linear convective line as the boundary moves east. The highest rain and storm coverage is expected from the northern Brush Country through the Victoria Crossroads and into the northern Coastal Plains. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms remains in place for those northern portions of the WFO. Although moderate low-level shear will be present, modest destabilization associated with limited surface heating and weak lapse rates should reduce updraft strength and overall severe potential. If any storms briefly intensify, the primary hazard would be isolated strong to damaging wind gusts. Locally heavy rainfall and brief ponding on the roadways cannot be ruled out, but widespread flooding is not anticipated given fast storm motion and dry antecedent soil conditions.

The cold front will move offshore by Saturday night, bringing a transition to a much drier airmass. Despite the frontal passage, afternoon temperatures will not cool much at all due to west- northwesterly low-level flow/downslope warming east of the higher terrain in northern Mexico and limited CAA. Overnight temperatures will feel noticeably cooler though, falling into the 50s, primarily as a result of lower humidity and clearing skies. Upper-level ridging is forecast to reestablish itself early in the week, allowing dry weather and above-normal temperatures to dominate.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 512 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

A mix of MVFR/LFR/IFR will continue this morning with conditions improving to VFR by mid to late morning. Winds this afternoon are expected to be gusty with gusts up to 28 knots. Winds will decrease a bit around 06z tonight but will remain elevated around 13-15 knots. MVFR ceilings are expected to return once again tonight.

MARINE

Issued at 1152 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Winds will increase to moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) levels tonight and persist through Sunday ahead of and behind our next cold front. Brief instances of gusts to strong (BF 6) levels can be expected Saturday afternoon and evening during the height of the frontal passage. The increase of wind coupled with wave heights between 4-7 feet will likely lead to the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory closer to time. Precipitation is also anticipated with this front, with medium to high (50-70%) chances over area waters through the day Saturday. Winds will be more northerly post-front before returning to an onshore direction with gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) conditions by the start of next week. Patchy to areas of fog can be expected through Friday morning with more limited chances late tonight into Saturday as cloud cover and precipitation increase ahead of the front.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1152 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Minimum relative humidity values will remain above 30% through Saturday. Friday night and Saturday will bring our next chance for showers and thunderstorms across the eastern half of the area along and ahead of our next cold front. Behind this front, elevated to critical fire weather conditions could return, as relative humidity values are forecast to drop well below 30% mainly across the Brush Country and western Coastal Plains for several days. This combined with 20-foot winds of 10-20 mph, with occasional higher gusts, and Energy Release Component values in the 70th-89th percentile may prompt the issuance of a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) or a Red Flag Warning (RFW) Sunday through at least Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 80 65 80 58 / 0 20 40 30 Victoria 80 62 77 55 / 0 30 80 50 Laredo 87 67 88 60 / 0 10 10 10 Alice 84 63 86 56 / 0 20 40 20 Rockport 77 65 77 60 / 0 20 60 40 Cotulla 85 64 83 55 / 0 20 40 10 Kingsville 82 64 86 57 / 0 10 30 20 Navy Corpus 75 66 75 60 / 0 20 50 40

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ230>234- 240>247-342>344-346-347.

GM...None.