textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 118 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

- Fire Weather Watch, Gale Watch and Wind Advisory have been issued

- Cold front late Sunday will bring critical fire conditions Monday and gale conditions across marine sites

- Below-normal temps Monday/Tuesday followed by a warming trend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 118 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

We're in for a dramatic next 24 hours. Today is looking to be the warmest day this week. This is thanks due to the compressional heating brought ahead of tonight's cold front. Additionally, the dryline moving through this morning this afternoon will only allow for greater heating this afternoon. Laredo is looking to hit the century mark and possible record-breaking heat for Victoria and Corpus Christi this afternoon. Needless to say, any body spending times outdoors should practice heat safety and take plenty of shade/water breaks. Southerly onshore flow will make for hazardous conditions for small craft through tonight before conditions deteriorate behind the front.

This cold front passage has been more progressive since yesterday's forecast; now expecting the wind shift and the rapid increase of wind speed and gusts to occur between 8 PM Sunday- midnight Monday. By that time, any loosed item that remains unsecured will likely be tossed around. Given that we're under 24 hrs until the wind shift, we went ahead and upgraded the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning, and for marine concerns, the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning. Wind gusts of 45-50 mph after the cold front passage. Isolated locations south of Hwy 59 will have a low chance (10-30%) of seeing gusts in excess of 55 mph, but measurement sites directly next to our local bays/waters cannot rule out a 60 mph gust. We remain with gusty northerly winds through Monday morning after a dramatically lower morning temperatures in the upper 40s/low 50s, with a downward trend in wind speeds through the remainder of the day. Monday night will see a dramatically calmer night with winds generally remaining under 10 mph. This with clear skies, low dewpoint temperatures, we'll see a cold night in store with lows Tuesday morning in the upper 30s/40s.

Through the remainder of the week, onshore flow will slowly allow Gulf moisture to return into South Texas through the upcoming week. Temperatures will also climb back into the upper 90s for inland locations next weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 118 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

South to southeasterly winds tonight between 10-15 knots will limit opportunities for fog tonight even with moisture in place. However, we can still expect MVFR/IFR ceilings between 10-14Z. Winds will shift to the west this afternoon, then increase with gusts around 25 knots expected. A cold front will approach late in the TAF period, diminishing winds briefly. During this time LLWS could become a concern, but have low confidence in this so have not put this into the TAF just yet. Behind the front, winds will turn to the north and increase further, with gusts as high as 40 knots possible late in the TAF cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 118 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A Small Craft Advisory has been issued through tonight with a Gale Warning from tonight through Monday morning. You can expect for another Small Craft Advisory to be issued Monday afternoon once winds decrease below gale speeds. Except for a low to medium chance (20-55%) for showers across the Gulf Waters with the frontal passage, rain is not expected next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 118 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

With Energy Release Component Values among the 70th-89th percentile spreading across the region today and temperatures climbing upper 90s with RH values dropping into the 10-15% range, our fire risk will remain slightly elevated, with weaker surface winds limiting a higher fire risk. However, a cold front passage tonight will bring gusty winds in its wake through Monday morning. RH values late tonight/early Monday morning will struggle to climb above 30% as a powerful surge of dry air moves into South Texas. Winds during this time will be at their strongest (gusting as high as 45 mph). Winds Monday afternoon will gradually decrease with RH values dropping to as low as 10%. As such, the Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning from tonight through Monday night, but it may start as early as the overnight hours given the lack of the recovery of RH values. Onshore flow will allow Min RH's Tuesday afternoon to drop to 15-20% thus keeping the fire risk elevated Tuesday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 95 49 65 45 / 0 10 0 0 Victoria 90 42 60 35 / 0 10 0 0 Laredo 100 51 67 44 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 99 46 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 84 48 64 46 / 0 10 0 0 Cotulla 98 46 65 39 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 98 49 65 42 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 82 52 63 52 / 0 10 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Monday for TXZ229>234-239>247-342>344-346-347.

Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM CDT Monday for TXZ229>233-240-241.

Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Monday for TXZ234-242>247-342>347-442-443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.