textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 128 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

- Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts through Wednesday, heat index 100-110

- Wet pattern this week with medium to high chances (40-75%) Tuesday night into the upcoming weekend

- Dangerous swimming conditions with a moderate to high risk of rip currents along the Middle Texas Coast through this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Moisture is on the rise (but so is the apparent temperature the next few days)! Today will mark the start of a long stretch of at least mentionable rain chances for South Texas. Satellite depicts a few spots along the Middle Texas Coast with PWATs already 1.75-1.90" (>75th percentile). Our first of many mid-level shortwaves will swing northeastward across the region today, bringing low 10-15% shower and thunderstorm chances. PWATs continue to climb to around 2.0" (99th percentile) Monday and likely persist through much of this week as the sub-tropical jet ushers in Pacific moisture on top of near climatological max 925 specific humidity. Rain chances increase to medium to high (40-75%) Tuesday night through Saturday as more potent mid-level shortwaves pass over the area in combination of an inverted surface coastal trough.

Rainfall totals Tuesday night through Saturday are projected to range from 1.50-3.00" across South Texas, with higher amounts north. Rainfall is compromised of various ensemble guidance; the ECENS ranges from 1.75-4.00", GEFS ranges from 1.00-2.00", while the GEM ranges from 2.00-2.50". Individual models have been rather persistent with their rainfall location, the ECMWF results in a wetter solution with greater rainfall closer to the coast, whereas the GFS keeps the greatest rainfall north of South Texas. The WPC does have parts if not all of South Texas in a marginal risk for flash flooding Tuesday night through Thursday night. I wouldn't be surprised if additional days will need a mention and/or increased risk later this week.

Strong thunderstorms in the afternoon will be a concern mid-late this week as MUCAPE climbs above 2500 J/kg with DCAPE near 1000 J/kg. The two limiting factors are the 900-800mb cap and weak effective shear less than 40 knots. Given the disturbances and PVA associated with them, there will be periods that elevated lift will allow for storms to occasionally break through the cap and tap into the strong instability.

Persist strong onshore flow along the Middle Texas Coast along with swell periods increasing to 7-8 seconds will increase the risk of rip currents. A moderate risk of rip currents remains in effect through tonight, then upgrades to a HIGH risk Monday. According to the P-ETSS, tide levels will struggle to reach minor coastal flooding but will have to closely monitor this morning and Monday morning. Afterwards, the astronomical tide will be on a decline.

Heat indices of 100-110 today through Tuesday, along with extremely warm dewpoints forcing near record warm minimum temperatures, leads to a moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts! Please stay hydrated and look before you lock: weather.gov/heat

A look beyond the current forecast period: model guidance is in good agreement with a wet pattern continuing into next week as a closed mid-level low develops over West Texas, putting South Texas in a favorable environment downstream of the trough.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

An overcast low-cloud deck has brought CIGs down to 1-1.5k ft to most terminals (KLRD will be on the perimeter of the cloud deck). These MVFR conditions will continue through 14Z, with brief periods of IFR conditions brought by CIGs dropping below 1k ft. By 15Z, the cloud decks starts lifting and becoming scattered, leaving SE'ly winds back near 20 kts with gusts as high as 35 kts. By 00Z, MVFR conditions return with low-clouds off the Gulf and spreading inland through 06Z.

MARINE

Issued at 128 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) southeasterly breeze will persist through Tuesday night. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Monday morning for all waters due to sustained winds around 20 knots and frequent gusts to around 25 knots. An extension of the advisory may be necessary later this week. Southeasterly flow weakens to gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) Wednesday into next weekend. Low to medium rain chances begin Tuesday night through Wednesday night, then increase to a steady medium chance, 50-60%, Thursday into next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 89 80 91 80 / 20 20 10 10 Victoria 90 78 91 77 / 20 20 20 10 Laredo 99 79 100 78 / 10 10 10 10 Alice 94 79 95 79 / 20 10 10 10 Rockport 89 80 90 80 / 20 20 10 10 Cotulla 98 79 100 79 / 20 10 10 20 Kingsville 91 79 93 80 / 20 10 10 10 Navy Corpus 86 80 87 80 / 20 10 10 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for TXZ345-442-443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Monday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275.