textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1156 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

- Fire Danger Statement for the southern Coastal Bend today

- Temperatures climb through the weekend before another seasonally- strong cold front moves through late Sunday night.

- Below-normal low temperatures in store tonight and Monday night

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Main story will be the breezy winds this morning. A Wind Advisory will remain in effect through 7 AM, with winds gradually decreasing through the day. While most loose items should already be secured, your neighbors might appreciate the items that have already escaped your properties as a result of this morning's winds. With a dry air mass settling into the region, the combination of these breezy winds and low RH's has also prompted a Fire Danger Statement for this afternoon (from noon through 7 PM tonight) for the southern coastal bend. RH values will be high enough on the barrier islands to keep them out of the Fire Danger Statement, but given the increase in Spring Breakers, it's always a good reminder to remember that burn bans remain in effect for those areas. Tonight, lows are looking to drop into the low 40s across inland locations and into the 50s along the coast. With a clear night in store and weak winds, we'll have a good set up for optimal radiational cooling (we'll see if we are able to see any upper 30s for lows Friday morning in our typical cold drainage spots). Sunday is still looking to remain the hottest of the forecast with high temps approaching 100F across the Rio Grande Plains.

A cold front is still progged to move into the region late Sunday night/early Sunday morning. NBM has trended cooler with Tuesday morning's low temps, showing the northern portions of the Victoria Crossroads/Brush Country dipping into the low 40s. There's still quite a bit of spread for how low temperatures will actually get, with the NBM 25th percentile showing locations in aforementioned regions dipping into the upper 30s. Something we'll keep watching to see how models resolve this.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1156 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Breezy northerly winds will diminish as we head through the afternoon, becoming light (5-10 knots) out of the north-northeast. Winds decrease to light and variable overnight before shifting to south- southeast by Friday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 147 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Gale conditions behind the front will primarily be a concern in the morning with 8-11 ft seas (up to 13 ft beyond 20 nm offshore). By tonight, winds drop below 15 kts and seas dropping to 2-4 ft. A light to gentle (BF 2-3) onshore flow returns Friday morning with 2- 3 ft seas through Saturday morning. Looking ahead to the next cold front passage Monday morning will see a return of near-gale conditions through Monday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 147 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Strong northerly winds will be greatest during the morning hours today. Beyond 7 AM winds will be trending down, going from 15-20 mph to 5-10 mph by sunset. RH will drop to as low as 15-20% for the Brush Country with 20-30% along the coast. With winds remaining stronger along the coast later in the afternoon, the fire risk will remain elevated, therefore prompting a Fire Danger Statement from noon to 7 PM tonight. Temperatures trend upward through the weekend. Relative humidity values will generally remain under 30% for inland locations through the weekend, keeping the fire risk elevated but under critical conditions. Looking ahead to the next cold front has has RH values dropping to 10-15% Monday afternoon, likely pushing the fire risk to near-critical conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 46 78 58 81 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 42 77 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 46 85 56 93 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 43 83 53 88 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 55 74 62 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 43 84 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 43 82 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 55 72 64 76 / 0 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ231- 232-236-237-250-255-270-275.