textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 546 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

- Medium to high (40-70%) chances of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.

- Marginal risk of both severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall with storms Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 120 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Isolated precipitation is moving across portions of the CWA early this morning. This will continue through the remainder of the overnight hours, but the more stable post-frontal environment should limit overall activity for the time being.

By Friday afternoon, the stalled boundary to our south is expected to lift north as a warm front, allowing deep moisture and warm temperatures to return across the region. Highs will rebound into the 80s as southerly flow strengthens ahead of an approaching upper- level Baja low moving across northern Mexico and western Texas. Although modest mid-level capping may initially suppress development during the day, increasing ascent associated with the approaching disturbance should support storm initiation along the Sierra Madres by late afternoon and evening. Storms are then expected to move eastward through the area Friday night.

Confidence in the exact convective evolution remains on the lower side given that the CAM solutions still vary. However, the overall environment appears supportive of organized thunderstorms. Moderate to strong instability (SBCAPE and MUCAPE between 2000-3500 J/kg), steep mid-level lapse rates (7-8 degC/km), PWATs approaching 1.7-2.0 inches, and 40-60 knots of effective bulk shear will favor conditional potential for strong to severe storms. Large hail appears to be the primary hazard given the favorable thermodynamic profile, but there is also the potential for damaging wind gusts as well with this setup. SPC continues to highlight most of the CWA within a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) at this time.

In addition to the severe weather threat, locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding will also be possible Friday night into early Saturday as deep moisture returns northward along the aforementioned warm front. WPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall for the entirety of South Texas, with the potential for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms producing locally intense rainfall rates. While widespread flooding is not anticipated, localized totals of 1.5-3.5 inches may occur where storms repeatedly track over the same areas. However, most areas should receive anywhere between 0.5-1.5 inches.

Precipitation will gradually diminish Saturday evening as the upper- level disturbance progresses east and subsidence increases in its wake. Drier and warmer conditions are then expected Sunday, although another weak cold front may approach the area late Sunday night into Monday. Current guidance suggests this boundary will be primarily dry, but we have included mention of some low-end PoPs in the event the front is able to interact with any remaining moisture. The rest of the work week will feature mid-level ridging building across the Southern Plains, leading to a dry conditions and a gradual warming trend as southeasterly flow redevelops.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 546 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

MVFR conditions prevail this morning with periods of IFR ceilings across the Coastal Plains. Showers continue to drift across South Texas, with an area of thunderstorms to the south over the Rio Grande Valley. Expect precipitation to continue to move east- northeast and spread in coverage this afternoon and into tonight, with a potential for strong to severe thunderstorms.

MARINE

Issued at 120 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

An east-southeasterly light to gentle (BF 2-3) breeze will prevail through the weekend, with occasional moderate (BF 4) gusts. Low to medium (30-50%) chances of showers and thunderstorms will persist through Saturday with the highest chances Friday night into Saturday morning. Winds will swing back to the northeast on Monday following a weak frontal passage, briefly increasing in strength to become moderate to fresh (BF 4-5). Onshore winds will then return by midweek.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 120 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Relative humidity values will generally remain at or above 35% through the period although min RHs could briefly drop below 35% over the Rio Grande Plains on Sunday. This, combined with sustained 20 foot winds less than 20 mph and Energy Release Components (ERCs) below the 40th percentile will preclude fire weather concerns. Wetting rain chances will peak Friday into Saturday particularly across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. and persist through Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 85 75 86 74 / 30 30 30 0 Victoria 82 70 85 69 / 30 60 40 10 Laredo 88 72 89 72 / 10 60 30 0 Alice 87 73 88 72 / 20 40 30 0 Rockport 85 76 87 76 / 40 40 30 10 Cotulla 84 71 88 70 / 10 60 50 0 Kingsville 86 74 87 73 / 30 30 30 0 Navy Corpus 83 77 84 77 / 40 20 30 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.