textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 541 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

- Warm August temperatures continue through the first week of September

- Low-end rain chances (10-30%) from mid-week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 143 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

A weak wave of low pressure is slowly sliding westward along the north-central Gulf coastline around the periphery of mid-level high pressure that is sliding more so into the Southeast US. For the short term, our PWATs generally range from 1.5-1.8", which falls below 2 standard deviations from our climatological normal. This just means that whatever seabreeze shower/storm that does develop will be isolated in nature and short-lived. In fact, most of the global models want to keep the majority of the 2.0-2.3" PWATs offshore and approaching the Southeast Texas/Louisiana border area by Tuesday (the ECMWF ensemble is more moist in PWATs moving onshore). That is when the Victoria Crossroads and locations north of Matagorda Bay will see 20-40% chances of rain. The real question is how far west this area of higher PWATs move into South Texas. If we see closer to 2.0" PWATs, the more efficient will our seabreeze activity be.

By mid-week, whatever comes from the wave moves onshore, but the mid- level flow around the now elongated high pressure system will keep this higher PWAT advection into the western Gulf. This will keep the shower activity offshore a possibility through the upcoming weekend, but less so confidence as to how much this shower activity can make it onshore. For now 10-30% rain chances for the end of the forecast period will primarily be for the coastal zones and less so for the Brush Country.

What will be ever present regardless of shower activity occurs will be the HeatRisk, which is forecast to top at major/extreme (level 3 and 4 of 4) for inland locations. While us South Texans are aware how hot it can still be in September, let's not be complacent in keeping ourselves hydrated and recognizing the signs of heat-related illness.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 541 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF cycle. No mention of showers or thunderstorms in the TAFs, but will need to keep an eye out in the case of seabreeze convection this afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 143 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Light morning onshore breezes become more gentle to moderate each afternoon with 1-2 ft seas. There will be daily chances for streamer showers in the open waters through the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 143 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Minimum relative humidity values will generally drop to 30% most afternoons with Energy Release Component values hovering in the 70th- 89th percentile. This will keep the fire risk elevated but limited by weak afternoon winds (which pick up to 10-15 mph in the overnight hours across the Brush Country). Gulf moisture increases by mid- week, increasing daily seabreeze shower chances through the latter half of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 95 79 95 78 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 97 75 98 76 / 10 0 10 0 Laredo 103 79 104 78 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 100 75 100 74 / 10 0 0 0 Rockport 92 81 93 81 / 10 0 10 0 Cotulla 102 77 103 76 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 98 76 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 90 82 91 81 / 0 0 10 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.