textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

- Medium to high (40-70%) rain chances early Tuesday morning through Wednesday over the Coastal Plains, shifting westward into the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains Thursday and Friday

- Minor coastal flooding likely during high tide and increased rip currents through this week

- Moderate risk of rip currents through at least Tuesday

- Low rain chances linger into Halloween weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

A few showers will push into the Coastal Bend this afternoon, before dissipating inland. Moisture will increase tonight in combination of a mid-level shortwave, causing PWAT values to near 2.0" (99th percentile) and bringing scattered to numerous showers over the Coastal Bend early Tuesday morning. Coverage will shift inland along the seabreeze in the afternoon, followed by a lull in activity Tuesday night. We won't have as good of mid-level support for convection on Wednesday, but there remains a weak inverted surface trough to aid in convergence along with the seabreeze and enhanced moisture to allow for a medium chance of showers and low chance for thunderstorms over the Coastal Plains.

Remnants of what is currently Tropical Storm Vance over the east Pacific will move into Mexico and advect even more moisture over South Texas Thursday, more focused along the Rio Grande. Therefore, medium to high rain chances (40-70%) will shift over the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains on Thursday, with lower chances eastward. Rain chances lower to 20-45% Friday as the remnants move northeastward across the state. Total rainfall through Friday remains around an inch or less areawide, with locally higher amounts up to around 2".

Heading into Halloween weekend, we'll maintain low rain chances due to abundant moisture and diurnal processes. The mid-level flow becomes more zonal with a subtle shortwave remaining off to our north, not aiding in lift. There are signs of our next cold front pushing through early next week Monday night into Tuesday. We'll need to keep a close eye on this progression.

Lastly, minor coastal flooding will likely develop during high tide each afternoon into evening for the Middle Texas Coast through the work week, as swell periods remain high along with a persistent easterly flow and astronomical high tide. In addition, these conditions will increase the risk of rip currents, creating more dangerous swimming conditions.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

VFR conditions currently prevail across all terminals of South Texas. A few very light showers are making it over the islands early this afternoon, before dissipating inland. Increased moisture late tonight through Tuesday morning will increase our MVFR low ceiling and SHRA threat. Expect greatest shower impacts over CRP and VCT starting 03-06Z continuing through the morning hours, with lower chances out west over ALI/COT/LRD. I have kept TSRA potential over CRP between 10-16Z due to instability rising (according to the NAM) but do believe showers will be the dominate weather type. Going beyond the forecast into Tuesday afternoon, shower and thunderstorm activity look to focus more over the Victoria Crossroads and Brush Country.

MARINE

Issued at 113 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) east to southeasterly flow will persist through this week, with seas generally between 3-5 feet. We could see slightly higher seas of 6-7 feet over the offshore waters tonight into early Tuesday morning. Medium to high shower and thunderstorm chances start this evening and will continue through Wednesday, before decreasing to low chances Thursday and Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 69 82 69 84 / 60 60 10 30 Victoria 64 81 64 84 / 20 40 30 50 Laredo 69 87 69 89 / 10 20 10 0 Alice 66 82 66 85 / 40 60 10 20 Rockport 69 82 70 83 / 60 50 30 50 Cotulla 66 84 66 86 / 10 40 10 0 Kingsville 67 82 67 85 / 50 60 10 20 Navy Corpus 72 81 74 81 / 70 60 30 30

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for TXZ345-442- 443-447.

GM...None.