textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 513 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

- Hazardous marine conditions expected this morning through early Thursday over the Gulf waters behind a cold front.

- Elevated fire conditions expected over inland portions of the area today.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1136 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

As of midnight the surface cold front has just pushed into northern portions of the area, and will have cleared the entire area by daybreak. Based on current radar trends it should be a largely dry frontal passage with our only appreciable rain chances (outside of sprinkles) confined to Victoria/Calhoun counties and the Gulf waters (and even then coverage looks isolated). Behind the front, breezy northerly winds will advect cooler and drier air into the area with highs topping out in the upper 60s this afternoon. Fortunately unlike with some of our recent shallow arctic fronts, in this case the 925-850mb fronts will follow the surface front in quick succession which will result in AM stratus thinning out by late morning/early afternoon.

The postfrontal high will shift southeastward towards the area tonight into Thursday causing winds to relax. This setup will first support a chilly morning on Thursday with lows ranging from the mid 30s to lower 40s. It will then lead to, at least in this forecaster's personal opinion, a nearly perfect weather day on Thursday characterized by highs in the upper 60s, mostly sunny skies, low humidity, and light winds. The surface high will shift further east on Friday and warm southerly flow will then strengthen along its western periphery by this weekend. This configuration will result in high temperatures warming back into the upper 70s to lower 80s by Sat/Sunday with overnight lows increasing back into the 50s by Sunday/Monday AM. Unfortunately rain chances look slim to none through the period with mid-lvl ridging positioned near or just upstream of the area. A southern stream mid-lvl disturbance is progged to move into the state late in the period but at this point its trajectory does not look overly promising for significant rain chances over our area.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 513 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

A cold front is currently pushing through the middle of South Texas, bringing brief MVFR ceilings before VFR conditions quickly prevail behind the frontal passage. North to northeasterly winds of 15-20 knots gusting to around 25 knots will persist through much of this afternoon behind the front, before weakening to below 10 knots tonight. Skies will clear through the day with no rain chances.

MARINE

Issued at 1136 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Fresh to strong north-northeasterly winds will prevail this morning through Thursday morning behind a cold front, with seas also increasing to 5 to 7 ft over the Gulf waters. Consequently a Small Craft Advisory has been issued through early Thursday morning. Winds will then decrease into the light to gentle range Thursday night into Friday morning before increasing out of the southwest during the day on Friday. Isolated showers and storms can be expected this morning along the cold front.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1136 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

A weak cold front will pass through the area this morning, with min relative humidity values today generally decreasing into the 20-30% range this afternoon behind the front. These RH values combined with moderate NNE winds and ERC values in the 60-70th percentile will result in Elevated fire conditions over inland portions of the area this afternoon. Although winds will relax Thursday into Friday Elevated fire weather conditions will persist due to the low RHs and increasing ERCs, with Fire Danger statements potentially needed each day through Saturday particularly for the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 70 42 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 68 37 67 40 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 72 42 70 42 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 71 39 70 40 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 67 43 64 46 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 71 38 70 39 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 71 41 69 39 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 66 48 62 47 / 10 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ231- 232-236-237.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ250-255-270- 275.