textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 120 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

- Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of strong to severe storms Saturday

-Flood Watch in effect area-wide through Monday as multiple rounds of storms bring a marginal to slight risk of flash flooding each day.

-Risk of river flooding this weekend with more rounds of storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 120 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

As of 11:20 PM, we are monitoring a couple at areas with storms. THere is a line of storms that continues tracking southwards towards our CWA. Concurrently, we also have a couple of storms to the south in tracking north and west of our area in Mexico tracking southeast. If the the storms combine and grow upscale we could be dealing a unfavorable scenario. Will continue to monitor this overnight. The likely timeframe for convection to begin will be around 12-13Z beginning out west and tracking east. Guidance has a cluster of storms congealing into a line of storms and progressing to east through the day. Some clustering of storms around the line will still be likely leading to widespread heavy rainfall across the area. With the above normal moisture present, very efficient rainfall rates will be expected. This will allow for a continued threat for flash flooding given anteceding conditions of already saturated soils. While there is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms today, as previously mentioned given the abundance of cloud cover it will be a little more difficult for storms to become strong to severe. It won't be out of the question however, will monitor this threat through the day. Majority of the region remains in slight risk for excessive rainfall. The expected totals with storms today will likely be in the neighborhood of 2-3 inches, though locally higher amounts will be possible. Activity will linger through Sunday afternoon as a disturbance/potential surface low will gradually progress to the east. We will continue to monitor our next chance of rain, which will likely be around the middle of next week. This could lead to another round of heavy rain producing showers and storms further increasing potential flooding concerns given already saturated soils. As of this cycle, WPC has outlooked all of South Texas in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Be sure to check back for future updates as this is still days out. Temperatures will be in the 80s through the end of next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 120 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

MVFR ceilings are developing along the coast as well as just north of COT spreading southward. Convection hugs the Rio Grande well south of LRD at this time, as well as a broken line just east of San Antonio on track eastward to impact VCT in a few hours. There will remain a mix between MVFR/VFR ceilings through the morning hours, with direct thunderstorm impact likely resulting in MVFR/IFR vsby reductions. Confidence is low in timing of convection across South Texas, but greater model guidance hits at a more widespread cluster of showers and storms during the morning to mid-afternoon hours, ending west to east. Winds will remain generally light out of the east to southeast around 10 knots or less, with the exception from outflows of storms bringing gusts to around 35 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 120 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Gentle to moderate E-SE winds will prevail today through the weekend over the waters. Brief periods of gusty and erratic winds (and elevated seas) will be possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Thunderstorm chances will be high (60-80%) Saturday and Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 120 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

No fire weather concerns through the next week as moisture increases and minimum RHs remain over 50% area-wide. Medium to high rain chances (50-80%) expected today through Sunday. These should be solid wetting rains with generally aerial totals in the 2 to 4 inch range through the weekend with locally higher amounts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 85 72 84 72 / 80 70 50 20 Victoria 85 68 83 68 / 70 60 50 30 Laredo 86 70 89 71 / 70 20 10 30 Alice 85 70 85 69 / 80 60 40 10 Rockport 88 74 87 74 / 70 70 60 30 Cotulla 86 68 88 70 / 70 40 10 10 Kingsville 84 71 85 70 / 80 60 40 10 Navy Corpus 86 75 85 76 / 70 60 50 20

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Monday evening for TXZ229>234-239>247- 342>347-442-443-447.

GM...None.