textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1144 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

- Medium to High chances (50-80%) for showers with a few thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday in the Coastal Plains; 30-50% elsewhere.

- Warmer than normal temperatures much of the period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1144 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Moisture will continue to pump into the area today through Wednesday with PWAT values approaching max levels. Seasonal average is around 0.8" with Max around 1.8"; the forecast is for 1.5-1.8 tonight into Wednesday. Combine this with a coastal trough and an upper level disturbance, and rain chances are as high as 70-80% in the Coastal Plains. With such high moisture levels some areas could top an inch of rain over the next 36 hours. Rainfall rates as high as 2"/hour could lead to quick ponding on roads, mainly over urban areas, but flash flooding risk is limited. While mostly shower activity is expected. a few thunderstorms are possible in the Coastal Plains especially late morning and afternoon.

Showers and storms taper off by Thursday as the coastal trough moves away from the area and a cold front approaches. While there is still some uncertainty still exists on the frontal passage, several runs of forecast models have pushed it through the area, thus confidence is increasing. While the front will be dry, temperatures behind will drop back to near normal levels (after 80s on Thursday). The seasonal temperatures will not last long though as we'll warm back into the 80s by Saturday through early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Rain chances increase late tonight and through the day on Wednesday, primarily for VCT, CRP and ALI TAF sites. While most of the activity will be showers, a few thunderstorms are possible late morning and in the afternoon especially for VCT/CRP. Winds will remain generally light and at times variable. CIGS are expected to gradually fall this afternoon and remain low (MVFR to IFR) east through the period.

MARINE

Issued at 1144 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Gentle to moderate onshore (BF 3-4) winds are expected through Thursday. Rain chances return Tuesday night into Wednesday due to an inverted trough with medium to high chances (40-80%) for rain. A cold front is forecast to move through the area Thursday night into Friday morning with winds shifting north. Small craft advisories may be necessary as fresh to strong (BF 5-6) develop behind the front. Winds will weaken into the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1144 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Moisture is on the increase today and will continue through Wednesday with moderate to high rain chances in the Coastal Bend tonight and Wednesday. Drier air moves back into the region by Thursday followed by a cold front Thursday night. RH values west could fall below 30% Thursday and Friday, but winds will be generally weak. Elevated fire weather conditions are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 63 71 61 79 / 60 70 10 0 Victoria 58 72 59 79 / 50 70 10 0 Laredo 57 74 55 83 / 20 10 0 0 Alice 58 73 58 82 / 60 60 0 0 Rockport 61 70 61 75 / 60 80 10 0 Cotulla 55 73 53 83 / 40 10 0 0 Kingsville 61 73 60 81 / 60 70 0 0 Navy Corpus 65 70 64 74 / 60 80 10 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.