textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 536 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- Medium rain chances today into Saturday, with isolated pockets of heavy rainfall and high rainfall accumulations.

- Moderate risk of heat-related impacts Saturday into early next week, with peak heat indices 104-109 degrees over the Coastal Plains.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 106 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

A low amplitude mid-lvl easterly disturbance will move over South Texas today and this will be accompanied by a fairly impressive surge of tropical moisture with PWATs increasing into the 2.1 to 2.3 inch range (near the 90-95th percentiles for mid July). Although isolated-scattered showers and storms may impact the Gulf waters and immediate coast through the morning, more widespread activity inland will likely not initiate until the early afternoon period. Given long thin CAPE profiles heavily influenced by the tropical moisture surge the main concern with storms will be locally heavy rainfall. Swaths of 1-2 inch totals are likely within appreciable chances of 2- 3 localized 2-3 inch totals. These higher totals will be more rate- driven than duration driven as the mean S-SE steering flow is not particularly weak (for July standards) and so storms should progress steadily N-NWrd. As mentioned in previous discussions the lack of widespread rainfall over the last few weeks should allow area soils to largely support these rain rates without significant hydro concerns. As always in these types of summer-environments gusty (but sub-severe) wet microbursts will be a secondary concern.

The tropical moisture will linger over the area Saturday with another round of scattered diurnal storms expected (with the continued threat of locally heavy rainfall). By Sunday the mid-lvl disturbance will have weakened and ridging will temporarily build back in from the east. While this should lower storm chances relative to Friday/Saturday, PWATs will still be around 2 inches so isolated to scattered (generally 20-30 PoPs) activity is expected to develop along the sea breeze in the afternoon. Heading into next workweek the forecast trends more complex as a robust mid-lvl ridge builds in over the northern Plains and various convectively-enhanced disturbances pivot westward along its southern flank, with their track largely tied to the positioning of a W-E oriented 700mb convergence zone. To further complicate the picture, drier air (likely enhanced by a SAL plume) will filter into the area Monday into Tuesday which may limit precipitation chances. Given that the 700mb boundary, and thus the primary storm-initiation zone looks to set up just north of the area will maintain the highest PoPs for the moment over the Victoria Crossroads and northern Brush country for the Mon-Wed period. However, confidence is not currently high regarding the exact southern extent of the higher rain chances.

Temperatures may cool a couple degrees relative to the last few days today into Saturday due to increase cloud cover and rain coverage. However, a warm up to near normal conditions looks likely Sunday into early next week, with heat indices potentially flirting with advisory criteria at times over the Coastal Plains.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 536 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

No significant changes for this TAF cycle. VFR conditions will prevail, though have continued TEMPO groups for MVFR ceilings at LRD and ALI early this morning. Showers and thunderstorm chances will develop today across the Coastal Plains so have included PROB30 groups for ALI, VCT, and CRP.

MARINE

Issued at 106 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) southeasterly-southerly winds will persist through the weekend with seas running 2 to 4 ft. There will be a medium (40-50 percent) chance of thunderstorms this morning through Saturday with periods of erratic winds and elevated seas likely in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Rain chances decrease into the 20-40 percent range Sunday into Monday with highest chances over our northern waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 90 78 92 79 / 40 20 30 10 Victoria 91 76 92 77 / 40 10 40 10 Laredo 94 77 94 77 / 30 20 40 30 Alice 90 76 91 76 / 60 20 40 10 Rockport 89 81 90 82 / 40 30 30 10 Cotulla 94 76 94 76 / 40 20 40 20 Kingsville 91 77 91 77 / 60 10 40 0 Navy Corpus 88 81 90 83 / 40 20 30 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.