textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

- Rain chances today could limit heat-related impacts

- Medium to high rain chances remain in the forecast through early this evening

- Minor coastal flooding remains a concern

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Scattered showers and storms will continue this afternoon, mainly over the Coastal Plains. Surface obs and TPW satellite imagery show a healthy plume of moisture (PWAT around 2.1- 2.3 inches) over the coastal waters and counties. This is mainly driven by a weak surface trough/boundary pushing along the middle/upper TX coast this afternoon. The combination of this trough, daytime heating and seabreeze interaction will keep rain/storm chances going through early this evening, though some lingering showers may persist offshore as the weak trough moves over the region before weakening later tonight. Brief heavy downpours, frequent lightning and gusty winds are possible with any strong cells mainly this afternoon.

A drier pattern quickly returns to the region Friday into the weekend. A strong mid to upper level ridge centered over the southeastern CONUS will continue to move westward and expand over the region over the next couple of days. Onshore (easterly surface winds) will prevail at the surface, bringing a warm and more humid Gulf air mass into the region. Therefore, while subsidence aloft remains strong, we cannot rule out isolated convection, particularly in the afternoon with the combination of peak daytime heating and sea/baybreeze interaction. Overall, slight rain/storm chances remain in the forecast Friday through the weekend. Rain/storm chances will continue with a daily chance (15 to 20%) Monday through the remainder of the week.

Will continue to monitor beach conditions over the next few days. A long easterly fetch will develop across the northwestern Gulf over the next few days. This could result in possible coastal flooding, especially during times of high tides and an increased risk of rip currents.

JM

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue to move across most of the terminals this afternoon. Given low to moderate confidence in coverage and intensity, have only included PROB30 in the TAFs. The exception is for VCT terminal where higher precipitation chances are expected this afternoon. Erratic wind gusts and low visibility are expected with any strong storms through early this evening. Will continue to monitor a window for MVFR conditions across LRD and COT terminals late tonight into early Friday morning. Winds will become light and variable overnight, before transitioning to the ESE at around 7 to 12kts by late Friday morning. Outside of any storms and low ceilings (particularly for our western terminals), VFR conditions are expected through the period.

JM

MARINE

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move over the coastal waters this afternoon and evening in response to a passing weak surface trough. Elevated winds, building seas and frequent lightning are possible with near any strong storms. Activity should gradually diminish late this evening. Light to moderate onshore flow and seas around 3 to 5 ft will prevail through this weekend. Light onshore winds and seas around 2 to 3ft will prevail the upcoming week, along with daily slight chance of showers and storms.

JM

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

ERC values will remain in the 50-69th percentile for much of the region and remain at those levels through the end of the week. While ERC values will be decreasing, relative humidity values will be improving above 40% across all of South Texas Thursday into the weekend. Therefore, elevated fire weather conditions are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 79 94 77 95 / 40 30 10 10 Victoria 74 99 72 99 / 20 10 10 20 Laredo 77 99 75 100 / 20 20 0 0 Alice 76 98 73 98 / 30 30 0 10 Rockport 81 93 79 93 / 50 30 20 20 Cotulla 77 98 74 99 / 20 20 0 0 Kingsville 78 97 75 97 / 30 40 0 20 Navy Corpus 82 90 81 90 / 40 40 20 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.