textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

- Major to Extreme risk of heat-related impacts across a large portion of South Texas Wednesday, then lowering to a moderate to high risk the rest of the week.

- Rain chances to a medium to high Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

As moisture continues to gradually advect into the region, heat index values will remain high Wednesday with a high to moderate risk of heat-related impacts. Some relief to the heat will come later this week as rain chances continue to look favorable, mainly for Wednesday night and Thursday. As mentioned in the previous discussion, capped the Max PoP from the NBM to be more in line with the previous forecast due to uncertainty. As models have been consistent with rain chances for Thursday, it's still a little cloudy for how widespread they will be as well as the potential intensities. While rain chances will be medium to high across the eastern half of South Texas Thursday, the chances for the western half will generally remain low with chances less than 40%.

Models show a long easterly fetch developing across the northern Gulf waters this week which may help push water farther up the beaches. Will continue to monitor trends for slightly higher than normal tides and/or an increased rip current risk. At this time, minor coastal flooding is not anticipated but will continue to be monitored.

More heat safety information can be found at weather.gov/heat

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Isolated to scattered showers have developed over the open waters and just east of Port Aransas early this morning. This activity is moving northwestward, decreasing in intensity as they move inland over the Victoria Crossroads. Occasional MVFR ceilings will linger over VCT/ALI for the next couple hours, with VFR prevailing elsewhere. Greater coverage is expected over VCT as expressed by VCSH and TEMPOs, lower chances westward where PROB30s have been included over ALI/LRD later this afternoon into evening along the seabreeze. Southeasterly winds increase by midday and continue through the afternoon, with sustained 10-15 knots and gusts around 20 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

A moderate to gentle southeast breeze persists tonight with 2-3 ft seas. Winds primarily will be easterly from Thursday across the western Gulf resulting in seas increasing to 3-5 ft and then reducing to 3-4 ft on Friday. Rain chances increase through Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

ERC values will improve to the 50-69th percentile for much of the region and remain at those levels through the end of the week. While ERC values will be decreasing, relative humidity values will be improving with 30-45% Wednesday and above 40% across all of South Texas Thursday into the weekend. Therefore, elevated fire weather conditions are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 95 79 94 79 / 10 20 50 40 Victoria 100 76 98 75 / 20 10 60 20 Laredo 103 77 100 77 / 0 0 20 10 Alice 100 76 97 76 / 10 10 40 30 Rockport 94 80 93 80 / 30 40 70 50 Cotulla 103 77 100 77 / 0 0 20 10 Kingsville 98 77 96 77 / 10 10 40 40 Navy Corpus 91 82 90 82 / 10 30 50 50

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.