textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 528 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

- Red Flag Warning in effect today due to Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions. These conditions are likely to continue throughout much of this week

- Unseasonably warm mid-week

- Late-week cold front

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1219 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

A strong mid-level trough and associated mid-low will continue moving across the eastern CONUS today before shifting offshore of the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, ridging will persist across the Rocky Mountain West with high pressure anchored over the eastern Pacific just off the Mexican coast. Flow aloft across South Texas will remain unchanged relatively unchanged through much of the period. By mid-week, however, a disturbance emerging from the Pacific Northwest will drive another cold front southward. Guidance has started to converge on a late Thursday/early Friday frontal passage (FROPA), though timing adjustments remain possible.

The combination of surface high pressure, warm air advection (WAA), and very dry conditions aloft will support mostly clear skies and efficient radiational heating. Not surprisingly, a warming trend will dominate through mid-week, with temperatures climbing well above normal. 850 mb Ts peak around mid-week near +2 SD above normal, translating to widespread highs in the 90s Wednesday through this upcoming weekend with the exception of Friday. Temperatures Thursday bears watching, as the record high at CRP could be challenged. Another couple of cold overnight lows in the 40s (30s north) tonight and tomorrow night are expected before moderating into the mid 50s to 60s.

During the last half of the forecast from Wednesday to the weekend, increasing pressure gradients and a strengthening ~35-40 KT LLJ will support: elevated fire weather and hazardous marine conditons.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 528 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Quiet aviation conditions through this period! Winds will subside over the next hour or so and remain generally light through the period. Expect VFR conditions with just a few high clouds.

MARINE

Issued at 1219 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Winds remain elevated early this afternoon behind yesterdays cold front, with strong to near Gale flow (BF 6-7) gradually diminishing this afternoon. A moderate to fresh breeze (BF 4-5) is expected by tonight through the first half of the week. By Wednesday, strong to near Gale (BF 6-7) conditions redevelop in response to a tightening gradient over the coastal waters. The Gale Warning was allowed to expire at noon and has been replaced with a Small Craft Advisory. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely again Wednesday into Thursday, with gusts to near Gale force.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1219 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Northeast winds remain elevated early this afternoon but should decrease throughout the day. Energy release component (ERC) also remains elevated in the 75-85th percentile, and RFTI values of 3-4. Combined with minimum RH values as low as 14%, leading to elevated to critical fire weather conditions across South Texas. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect across much of the region and a Fire Danger Statement is in effect for Webb and La Salle counties until 6 pm this evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 44 66 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 35 66 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 43 71 48 79 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 38 69 44 79 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 47 66 53 73 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 39 70 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 40 68 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 52 63 56 71 / 0 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ230>234- 240>247-342>344-346-347.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ231-232- 236-237-250-255-270-275.