textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1219 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

- Cold front expected early Friday with re-enforcing surge of high pressure Saturday night.

- Medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms across southern Coastal Plains Thursday night, then again over the weekend across South Texas.

- Minor coastal flooding possible through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1219 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

The cold front that moved through South Texas Tuesday will return as a warm front Thursday, bringing a low chance of showers Thursday afternoon to the southern Coastal Bend. The chance of showers and thunderstorms increases to a medium to high chance Thursday night into Friday morning as another cold front moves through S TX. Rain chances are forecast to decrease as the cold front moves south of the area. Models indicate a second surge of high pressure that will reinforce the cooler temperatures late Saturday into Sunday, and bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to S TX. However, models have been flip flopping with rain chances for the weekend, thus, confidence is low for this scenario to pan out. Models show rain chances decreasing Sunday night as drier air advects across the region.

As for the temperatures, highs will be warmer with lower to mid 80s on Thursday due to the warm front, but the next cold front on Friday will bring max temperatures down to the 70s Friday and Saturday. The reinforcing surge late Saturday will bring highs in the 60s to around 70 for Sunday and Monday. Lows in the 50s to around 60 can be expected by Saturday night with the second reinforcing surge of high pressure.

The chance of minor coastal flooding along gulf facing beaches will increase through Friday and especially by the weekend. This is due to a strengthening northeast flow by Saturday which is conducive for eckman forcing to push the water up to the dunes during high tide. In addition, normal tide levels will also be on the increase as we head toward a new moon. Latest P-ETSS run indicated that tide levels may exceed the 2ft MSL threshold during times of high tide by Friday and into the weekend. The one thing missing will be long period swells. Swell periods are only expected to get up to 7 seconds. Will monitor trends for any changes to the tide levels and swells.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF cycle. Clouds are expected to increase overnight, but are forecast to remain at or above 3,500ft. Brief MVFR VSBYs are possible for VCT early Thursday morning. Winds will remain light and variable through tonight, becoming more east to southeast on Thursday.

MARINE

Issued at 1219 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

A gentle (BF 3) onshore breeze returns tonight and continues through Thursday. Another cold front is expected to move through the region early Friday bringing a fresh (BF 5) northerly wind Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. The flow becomes strong (BF 6) out of the northeast late Saturday and continues through Sunday with occasional gusts to gale force possible. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed this weekend. Winds relax to a moderate (BF 4) level by Monday, but will remain northeast. A medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms expected Thursday night and Friday, then return late Saturday into Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1219 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

The fire risk will be low through the forecast period due to minimum relative humidity values above 30%. In addition, a medium to high chance for wetting rains can be expected along the southern coastal plains Thursday night, and then again across South Texas over the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 63 82 66 79 / 0 10 70 10 Victoria 54 81 61 77 / 0 10 20 0 Laredo 64 83 66 78 / 0 10 20 10 Alice 59 84 65 78 / 0 20 60 10 Rockport 66 82 65 79 / 0 10 50 10 Cotulla 60 82 61 79 / 0 0 10 0 Kingsville 61 84 66 79 / 0 20 80 20 Navy Corpus 70 81 69 77 / 0 10 80 30

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.