textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

- Rain chances Thursday could limit heat-related impacts

- Medium to high rain chances remain in the forecast for Thursday

- Minor coastal flooding remains a concern

DISCUSSION

Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

While the evening sounding only showed PWAT values of 1.72", satellite is showing PWAT values of 1.9-2.1" moving its way into South Texas. This along with an mid-level disturbance will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances will slowly increase tonight peaking tomorrow between 35-70% along the eastern half and 20-40% across the western half of South Texas. Rain chances will decrease this weekend to under 15% rebounding back to the 20-40% range early to mid next week each afternoon with the seabreeze. While warm temperatures will remain warm, heat index values are expected to drop with the increased cloud cover lowering out heat risk for the next few days. While there is still plenty of uncertainty, coastal flooding could still come into play as models continue to show a long easterly fetch developing across the northern gulf waters this week which may help push water farther up the beaches. Will continue to monitor trends for slightly higher than normal tides and/or an increased rip current risk. At this time, minor coastal flooding is not anticipated but will continue to be monitored.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Brief periods of MVFR conditions will exist through midmorning in the Brush Country before returning to widespread VFR. The eastern sites could see a thunderstorm or two before 18z. VFR conditions are expected to prevail though periods of potentially lower CIGs and VSBYs will be expected around showers and thunderstorms. MVFR conditions return once again tonight in the west.

MARINE

Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

A gentle to moderate (BF3-4) breeze is expected, with occasional periods of fresh (BF 5) breezes through early next week. Low to medium (20-45%) rain chances tonight will increase to a medium to high (30-70%) chance by Thursday, before decreasing to a low chance once again on Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 208 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

ERC values will remain in the 50-69th percentile for much of the region and remain at those levels through the end of the week. While ERC values will be decreasing, relative humidity values will be improving above 40% across all of South Texas Thursday into the weekend. Therefore, elevated fire weather conditions are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 94 80 94 77 / 40 30 30 10 Victoria 98 74 99 72 / 70 10 20 0 Laredo 100 77 99 74 / 10 20 40 10 Alice 98 76 98 73 / 40 30 40 0 Rockport 93 81 93 79 / 40 30 30 10 Cotulla 99 77 99 74 / 20 10 30 0 Kingsville 97 78 97 75 / 40 30 40 0 Navy Corpus 90 82 90 81 / 40 40 30 20

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.