textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 156 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

- Potential for elevated fire weather conditions over the Brush Country and inland Coastal Plains daily through Monday

- Dry weather and warming trend continues into the middle of next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Minimal changes were required with today's forecast package with ridging remaining in control aloft through most of the period. This mid to upper level high pressure system will de-amplify early next week with an approaching low over the western Gulf, but another ridge will quickly build behind it. Generally rain-free and warm conditions can be expected across South Texas through the weekend into early next week, with low rain chances (<10%) over the marine zones Tuesday in response to the increased moisture with the approaching low.

In terms of hazards, Elevated fire weather concerns remain in the forecast daily due to the combination of critically dry fuels and minimum RH values below 30% inland during the afternoon hours. The caveat though, will be the winds, which are forecast to remain below criteria at least through the weekend. For more information please refer to the Fire Weather discussion below.

There is a low to medium chance of fog development (20-50%) tonight across portions of the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Plains. Winds will be light inland (<10 kts), with dew point depressions around 1-3 degrees F, and dry mid-levels. Having said that, based on modeled soundings, the saturated layer is very close to the surface limiting my confidence in development.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

VFR conditions will generally prevail through the cycle at area terminals, with the exception of a brief period of MVFR visibilities at ALI/VCT from 09-14Z Saturday due to fog formation. Winds will be gusting to around 15-20 knots out of the south to southeast this afternoon, before weakening overnight and becoming light by early Saturday.

MARINE

Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) south to southeasterly breeze will persist into the middle of next week. Winds will occasionally strengthen to a fresh breeze (BF 5) over the bays and nearshore waters south of Port Aransas this weekend. No rain chances are expected at this time with seas between 2-4 feet.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Although winds will remain generally below critical criteria, occasional wind gusts around 20 mph in combination with relative humidity of 15-30% and critically dry fuels over the Brush Country and inland Coastal Plains, will promote elevated fire weather concerns. Since wind gusts probabilities greater than 20 mph is less than 20%, I have held off on issuing any fire products but will need to be monitored. We can expect similar conditions daily into the middle of next week with hottest temperatures nearing 100 degrees occurring this weekend over the Brush Country.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 62 87 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 59 87 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 62 97 62 95 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 58 96 59 94 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 64 79 65 80 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 59 98 59 97 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 59 92 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 65 79 66 79 / 0 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.