textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 101 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

- The chance for heavy rain continues through tonight mainly across the southern Coastal Bend. Light to moderate rain across the remainder of S TX.

- Slight Risk [level 2 of 4]) of Excessive Rainfall across the southern Coastal Bend with flash flooding possible.

- Minor coastal flooding expected through late tonight during times of high tide.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk tonight.

- Small Craft Advisory conditions expected through 3 PM Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 101 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Latest radar indicated light to moderate rain across most of S TX with a few heavier pockets across the Coastal Bend this afternoon. For tonight, lower rainfall amounts/weak showers are forecast across most of S TX with higher amounts mostly confined across the southern Coastal Bend close to the coast. Due to the more isolated nature of heavy rainfall expected, the Flash Flood Watch was allowed to expire. The Weather Prediction Center has a slight risk of excessive rainfall along the southern Coastal Bend through tonight. Models differ on rain chances for tonight through Tuesday with the latest CAM models indicating isolated light showers and low precip amounts across all of S TX, while the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian all show more scattered and heavier rainfall across the southern Coastal Bend. Given the mid level low is forecast to shift northeast overnight, but still provide diffluence aloft, the surface trough will continue to provide low level convergence along the coast and PWATs 1.7-2.0 inches forecast to remain across the southern Coastal Bend, confidence is moderate to high that pockets of higher rainfall amounts of 0.25-0.75" will remain possible tonight generally closer to the coast from Corpus Christi to Kingsville to Baffin Bay and eastward. The heaviest rainfall will likely be south of the CWA and over the coastal waters where there is better instability.

So, overall will keep the medium to high rain chances across S TX with mainly light showers and low qpf, except slightly higher near the coast of the southern Coastal Bend. This activity is expected to continue through Tuesday morning, then decreasing to a low chance most areas by Tuesday afternoon. Low to medium rain chances continue into Wednesday, becoming low to very low chance the latter part of the week.

Max Highs will remain below normal through Tuesday with warming to near normal values by mid week. Lows are expected to generally be at or above normal through Wednesday. Models are indicating a cold front Thursday or Friday bringing mainly drier conditions to S TX. Highs will continue at normal levels while the min temperatures drop into the 50s for Thursday night and Friday night.

Another concern continues to be minor coastal flooding along gulf facing beaches during high tide this afternoon into tonight. Latest P-ETSS run indicated that tide levels may exceed the 2ft MSL threshold during high tide tonight with with up to 2.2 feet above MSL possible. Tide levels are expected to be lower through the remainder of the week due to lower wind speeds across the gulf waters. A moderate rip current risk expected tonight, becoming low Tuesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 101 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Light to moderate rain will continue through this afternoon through Tuesday morning. Slightly heavier rainfall is expected along the coast near the CRP terminal. This afternoon, CIGS are at VFR levels across ALI, CRP and VCT, while much lower CIGs and VSBYs are ongoing across LRD and COT. However, prevailing MVFR conditions and periods of IFR/LIFR are expected tonight through Tuesday morning. Strong gusty winds will also be possible in and around SHRAs, but generally light from the northeast and east tonight through Tuesday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 101 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

The fresh northeast winds this afternoon will continue to decrease to a moderate breeze tonight and Tuesday. A gentle breeze is expected to develop by Tuesday night and Wednesday ahead of the next cold front. The cold front is forecast to move through the area Thursday or Friday bringing a fresh to strong northerly breeze to the Middle Texas Coastal Waters. Low to medium rain chances expected through mid week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 101 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Due to the chance for widespread wetting rains this week and above 40% across South Texas through the upcoming week, the fire risk will remain low.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 61 74 64 78 / 50 60 30 30 Victoria 55 72 60 76 / 40 30 30 20 Laredo 61 71 63 77 / 70 50 30 0 Alice 57 70 61 75 / 70 60 40 20 Rockport 62 76 65 77 / 50 50 40 30 Cotulla 57 69 59 75 / 70 30 20 0 Kingsville 59 73 62 78 / 60 60 30 30 Navy Corpus 68 75 69 77 / 40 60 50 40

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM CST Tuesday for TXZ245-342>347- 442-443-447.

High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ345-442- 443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ231- 232-236-237-250-255-270-275.