textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 622 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

- Major to Extreme risk of heat-related impacts across a large portion of South Texas today through the middle of week, then lowering to a moderate to major risk the latter half of the week.

- Heat Advisory in effect from Noon to 7 PM today.

- Low rain chances today through early next week, then increasing to a medium to high chance the latter half of the week.

- Elevated Fire Weather conditions remain possible through mid week, mainly across the inland Coastal Plains, Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1201 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Another Heat Advisory in effect for today. Heat indices up to 114 are forecast across many locations this afternoon. Thus, a Heat Advisory has been issued from Noon to 7 pm for most of S TX. Major to extreme risk of heat related impacts will continue through the middle of the week and Heat Advisories may be needed at times. By the latter half of the week, models show slightly cooler max temps due to increased rain chances, but still running above normal.

Slightly drier conditions in the mid levels and PWATs generally less than 2 inches today will keep rain chances low to very low across most of S TX, except for the Victoria Crossroads and northern Coastal Waters where slightly deeper moisture will bring a 20-50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Can not rule out a rogue shower or thunderstorm or two along the afternoon sea breeze across the Brush Country as this has been occurring almost daily. Models indicate that PWATs are even lower on Tuesday across all of S TX which will result in virtually little to no rain chances. Models have been consistent with a surge of deeper moisture advecting back across S TX Wednesday with increasing rain chances through Thursday. PWATs are progged to increase to as much as 2.4 inches, which will be conducive for locally heavy rain creating localized flooding problems, especially if the storms are slow moving. Highest rain chances Thursday are expected across the eastern half of S TX with PoPs from 35-60% and <35% closer to the Rio Grande.

Rain chances for Friday and into the weekend are still not clear cut due to differences in the model outputs. The GFS continues to indicate drier air moving into S TX as the center of the high moves directly over S TX, while the Canadian and ECMWF show the center of the high shifting farther west, which will allow for deeper moisture to remain over S TX. For now, the low to medium chance across all of S TX on Friday looks reasonable. Low rain chances continue across the Coastal Plains through the weekend into early next week.

One other concern to be monitored later in the week will be slightly higher than normal tides and/or an increased rip current risk. Models show a long easterly fetch developing across the northern gulf waters by mid week which may help push water farther up the beaches. At this time, minor coastal flooding is not anticipated but will continue to be monitored.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Patches of MVFR ceilings continue early this morning over the Brush Country, primarily west of ALI. I'll keep occasional MVFR ceilings at all terminals over the next couple of hours before VFR conditions prevail by 15Z. Southeasterly winds increase this afternoon to a sustained 15-20 knots with gusts around 25 knots or higher, especially over CRP. Winds decrease to 5-10 knots after 06Z.

MARINE

Issued at 1201 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

A fresh (BF 5) breeze is expected south of Port Aransas across Corpus Christi and Baffin Bays and out to 20 nautical miles once again this afternoon. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution in the bays and nearshore waters south of Port Aransas through this evening. Otherwise, a gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore flow is expected through the upcoming week. Low to medium rain chances can be expected today generally north of Rockport and out 60 nautical miles. Rain chances increase to medium to high Wednesday through Friday across the Middle Texas Coastal Waters. Low to medium rain chances expected next weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1201 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Minimum relative humidity is expected to be around 30% this afternoon across the Brush Country. Winds are expected to increase this evening as RH values rise. Thus, Fire weather concerns are not anticipated today. Lower RH values Tuesday will lead to higher elevated fire weather concerns for the Brush Country. The ERC is at the 75-90% percentile, and Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible at times through the period. The chance of wetting rains will be low to very low today and Tuesday, then increasing rain chances expected beginning Wednesday with the highest chance expected Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 96 79 97 79 / 10 0 0 10 Victoria 99 77 101 76 / 40 10 0 0 Laredo 104 78 105 77 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 101 76 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 93 82 94 81 / 20 0 0 10 Cotulla 103 77 104 75 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 99 77 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 91 83 91 82 / 10 0 0 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ230>234-240>247-342>344-346-347.

GM...None.