textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 140 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

- Low to moderate rain chances today will increase to medium to high (60-95%) Sunday ahead of a cold front expected Sunday afternoon

- Heavy rainfall possible through Sunday, particularly across the Victoria Crossroads where isolated flooding could occur. A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall and severe thunderstorms remains in effect.

-Strong northeasterly winds and hazardous marine conditions expected behind the cold front Sunday evening into Monday. A Gale Watch is in effect.

- Minor coastal flooding remains possible tonight and an increased rip current risk will lead to dangerous conditions at the beach.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

A shortwave extending from the base of the main mid-level trough will continue to move across South Texas today, interacting with increasing moisture to support isolated to scattered showers. Rain chances have been increased slightly this afternoon to account for ongoing activity and the potential for additional development as the disturbance progresses eastward. Despite sufficient positive vorticity advection, weak mid-level lapse rates have so far become marginally conducive for thunderstorm activity and have had few lightning strikes on radar early this afternoon. The major concern lies with the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

Attention then turns to Sunday as a cold front approaches South Texas from the north and east, with the latest guidance suggesting a frontal passage Sunday afternoon into evening. Increasing southeasterly flow ahead of the boundary will transport deeper Gulf moisture into the region, with PWAT values forecast to peak around 1.50-1.75 inches Sunday afternoon, according to the GFS, approximately 2 std deviations above normal. Combined with increasing instability, surface convergence, and large-scale ascent associated with the approaching trough, conditions will become increasingly favorable for widespread showers and thunderstorms, particularly across the eastern Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads.

Of particular concern is the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding through Sunday evening. Recent HRRR and RRFS guidance continues to favor the development of heavier convective cells across the Victoria Crossroads and generally east of Corpus Christi Bay. Rainfall totals of 2-4 inches are forecast across the Victoria Crossroads region, with localized amounts reaching 5+ inches where repeated rounds of convection or training thunderstorms occur. Elsewhere across South Texas, rainfall amounts generally range from 1-2 inches or less, tapering off towards the west.

In addition to heavy rainfall, a few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Sunday, particularly across the Victoria Crossroads. Increasing instability and effective shear exceeding 40 knots could support organized clusters or marginal supercellular structures capable of damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a brief tornado. SPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms, although uncertainty remains regarding storm evolution and exact timing. The cold front will push through by late Sunday, followed by strong northeasterly winds and cooler temperatures. Rain chances diminish by late Sunday/early Monday morning, with breezy conditions and highs mainly in the 60s for Monday. Dry weather continues through midweek before onshore flow returns, bringing warmer temperatures and low rain chances (20-30%) late in the week.

Minor coastal flooding remains possible tonight, although confidence has decreased, with water levels forecast to reach 1.8-2.0 feet MSL. Increasing swell periods and strengthening winds ahead of and behind the cold front will also contribute to an increased rip current risk and dangerous swimming and beach conditions along the Gulf waters.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 140 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

A few showers/thunder have been observed this morning near COT. Generally expecting this activity to stay along the northern fringes of South Texas while moving eastward. Additional activity is expected beginning around 18Z mainly affecting CRP/VCT but confidence is low, so will maintain PROB30 through 00Z. After which, chances near VCT increase through the end of the TAF period peaking to a high 85% chance near VCT around 18Z tomorrow. Less confident for activity west of the Victoria Crossroads region, so will probably maintain PROB30s for CRP/ALI/COT.

MARINE

Issued at 140 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Moderate to strong southeasterly flow will continue through tonight ahead of an approaching cold front, with a Small Craft Advisory in effect through 00Z Sunday. Rain chances will increase Sunday, with numerous showers and thunderstorms possible, some producing locally strong wind gusts and reduced visibility. The cold front is expected to move through the coastal waters Sunday afternoon into evening, resulting in a rapid shift to strong northeasterly winds and building seas. Gale force winds will be possible behind the front, with a Gale Watch in effect through 00Z Tuesday. At least Small Craft Advisory conditions may persist into Tuesday as winds and seas gradually subside. Moderate east to southeasterly flow is expected to return during the latter half of the week, with low rain chances.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 140 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions are not anticipated through the forecast period. Low rain chances today will increase to medium to high chances (60-90%) for showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday evening, keeping fuel moisture higher than normal. Another cold front will pass through Sunday night into early Monday morning, bringing a breezy northeasterly wind shift in the wake. However, temperatures will remain cooler than normal and lead to minimum relative humidity above 40 percent.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 68 80 56 64 / 20 60 70 10 Victoria 63 72 52 59 / 60 100 40 10 Laredo 67 81 57 64 / 0 10 10 0 Alice 65 81 55 62 / 10 40 40 0 Rockport 68 75 57 65 / 60 70 60 10 Cotulla 64 78 54 62 / 20 30 10 0 Kingsville 67 82 56 64 / 10 40 80 0 Navy Corpus 72 77 61 66 / 30 60 80 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275.

Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.