textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 510 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

- Patchy fog development possible across the Coastal Bend this morning.

- Above average temperatures to continue this week before our next cold front this weekend brings some possible relief.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1138 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Quiet, warm, and dry conditions will persist through much of the week as a mid-level ridge remains in control over South Texas. With low- level flow veering back to the southeast on Monday, this allowed for shallow moisture to return. With light winds and mostly clear skies, patchy fog overnight into the early morning cannot be ruled out across eastern portions of the region on Tuesday. Any fog that does develop will dissipate by mid-morning. Increasing southerly flow will support a steady warming trend, with afternoon temperatures climbing from the upper 70s and lower 80s Tuesday to the upper 80s and low 90s by Wednesday/Thursday. Overnight lows will also trend upwards, settling into the 60s.

By midweek, the ridge weakens and transitions toward a more zonal flow, reinforcing the warm and dry conditions across the region. Looking toward the end of the week and into the weekend, troughing over the central CONUS may allow for a frontal boundary to move through South Texas, through current guidance suggests limited moisture and forcing. As a result, confidence remains higher in a modest cool down rather than in any rainfall potential.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 510 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions will continue this morning due to periods of lower ceilings. VFR conditions will prevail this morning and afternoon with gusty winds up to 30 knots. Winds will begin to decrease after 01-02z. Chances for fog will come back to the aviation forecast towards the tail end of this TAF cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1138 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Onshore gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) flow will persist through the remainder of the week, with occasionally fresh (BF 5) breezes. Dry conditions will continue until this weekend when low chances (15- 20%) for precipitation return over area waters with our next front. This frontal passage will also shift winds to the north-northeast with fresh to strong (BF 5-6) conditions and seas of 5-7 feet. This could lead to the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory closer to time. However, with this cold frontal passage still several days away, much can change between now and then.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1138 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Minimum relative humidity values will stay at or just above 30% across the Brush Country and western Coastal Plains through the rest of the week. 20-foot winds will generally remain below 10 mph however, dry air and Energy Release Component values in the 50th- 69th percentile could lead to isolated fire weather concerns through the end of the week. As we head into the weekend, elevated to critical fire weather conditions could return behind our next cold front, as relative humidity values are forecast to drop well below 30% across much of South Texas. This combined with 20-foot winds of 10-20 mph, with occasional higher gusts, and Energy Release Component values in the 70-89th percentile may prompt the issuance of a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) or a Red Flag Warning (RFW) Saturday through Monday. However, with this cold frontal passage still several days away, much can change between now and then.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 80 62 82 64 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 80 60 81 63 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 90 62 89 63 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 87 60 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 78 64 79 66 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 89 59 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 85 61 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 75 65 76 66 / 0 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.