textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 543 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

- Patchy to areas of fog possible each morning.

- Weak cold front this morning and stronger cold front Saturday.

- Low chance of showers today across the Victoria Crossroads, then a medium to high chance Friday night into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1136 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

A weakening shortwave disturbance lifting east-northeast across northern Mexico and into South Texas tonight into Wednesday will be sufficient enough to produce isolated light showers, primarily north- northeast of our WFO. The greatest chance for measurable rain will be across the Victoria Crossroads and the immediate coast, where modest mid-level forcing and shallow moisture support low end (20- 30%) rain chances, while chances remain a bit more limited for locations farther west. Low stratus and patchy fog are likely late tonight through the morning as boundary-layer winds weaken and dewpoint depressions lessen, with fog potential continuing through the remainder of the work week. Sea fog development should remain limited due to weak flow and gradually warming nearshore waters.

Any lingering precipitation should exit the region by Wednesday afternoon. By this time and continuing into Friday, ridging will strengthen across the region, resulting in a warmer and more stable pattern. Persistent south-southeasterly low-level flow will allow a gradual increase in low-level moisture and humidity, in turn keeping daytime highs elevated. Highs will mainly be in the low to mid-80s inland and in the upper 70s near the coast. This would place many locations 10-15 degrees above average and approaching (but not exceeding) record values by late week.

By the weekend, our attention turns to a mid-to-upper-level trough advancing in from the western CONUS into the Southern Plains. This feature will allow for a surface low and associated cold front to progress eastward through Texas on Saturday. The front is expected to move through the Brush Country around midday Saturday and continue southeastward through the Coastal Bend during the afternoon into early evening. This boundary will primarily bring a transition to a much drier airmass rather than cooling temperatures. Highs are expected to remain in the 70s and 80s through the weekend. Beyond tonight/tomorrow, this boundary will bring our next chance for rain. However, the best potential for precipitation will again remain focused over north-northeastern portions of the WFO, particularly the Victoria Crossroads and northern Coastal Plains where medium to high (40-80%) chances are expected on Saturday. Lower probabilities are expected farther south and west.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Complicated aviation forecast this morning with an advancing frontal boundary influencing ceilings and fog formation across the region. A mixture of MVFR to IFR conditions is ongoing across area terminals, with LIFR levels likely developing at VCT around daybreak. A return to VFR is forecast to occur around mid morning across the eastern sites, and closer to noon out west. A few showers will continue to affect the VCT terminal this morning, before dry conditions return in the afternoon. Winds will generally remain light and variable through the cycle. Patchy to areas of fog are forecast again tonight.

MARINE

Issued at 1136 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

A south-southeasterly light to moderate breeze (BF 2-4) can be expected through Friday before increasing to fresh to strong (BF 5- 6) levels Friday night into Saturday ahead of and behind a cold front. The issuance of a Small Craft Advisory may be needed closer to time. A return to gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) conditions will occur by the start of next week. Patchy sea fog will be possible at times the remainder of this week, mainly north of Port Aransas. As far as precipitation goes, there is a low (20-30%) chance of showers tonight through Wednesday followed by a medium to high (40-80%) chance of showers Friday night and Saturday ahead of the aforementioned cold front.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1136 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

A weakening disturbance and a surface front bring chances of rain today and late Friday through Saturday, respectively. This is particularly true for portions of the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Plains. Minimum relative humidity values will remain above 30% through the rest of the work week. As we head into the weekend, elevated to critical fire weather conditions could return behind our next cold front, as relative humidity values are forecast to drop well below 30% mainly across the Brush Country and western Coastal Plains. This combined with 20-foot winds of 10-20 mph, with frequent gusts to 25 mph, and Energy Release Component values in the 70-89th percentile may prompt the issuance of a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) or a Red Flag Warning (RFW) Saturday through Monday. However, with this cold frontal passage still a few days away, much can change between now and then.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 79 60 79 62 / 20 0 0 0 Victoria 77 55 80 58 / 30 0 0 0 Laredo 82 63 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 81 59 83 59 / 20 0 0 0 Rockport 76 60 75 62 / 20 0 0 0 Cotulla 80 58 84 59 / 10 0 0 0 Kingsville 81 60 82 61 / 20 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 74 63 73 64 / 20 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.