textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 636 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

- Marginal risk of both severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall with storms Friday afternoon through Saturday morning

- Medium (30-55%) chances of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon through Saturday morning

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

A nearly stationary front over South Texas has kept us cloudy most of the day, however, sunshine has begun to creep through clouds as the front gradually moves northward. With the increased sunshine, most spot across South texas have warmed up into the mid 80s to lower 90s, promoting an unstable atmosphere with CAPE values up to 3035 J/Kg. Along with the high CAPE values, the cap has eroded which would help the development of showers and thunderstorms. While rain chances are on the lower to medium end with this forecast, heavy and severe thunderstorms will still be possible. CAPE values around 3000- 4000 J/kg, steep mid-level lapse rates between 7-8 degC/km, PWAT values around 2" and effective bulk shear of 58 kt will favor conditional potential for strong to severe storms. Large hail continues to be the primary hazard given the favorable thermodynamic profile, but there is also the potential for damaging wind gusts as well with this setup. The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight most of the CWA within a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) at this time. The Storm Prediction Center also has all of South Texas from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for any lingering storms past 12z tomorrow.

In addition to the severe weather threat, locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding will also be possible Friday night into Saturday morning as deep moisture returns northward along the aforementioned nearly stationary front. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall for the entirety of South Texas, with the potential for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms producing locally intense rainfall rates. While widespread flooding is not anticipated, localized totals of 1-2 inches may occur where storms repeatedly track over the same areas. However, most areas should receive anywhere between 0.5-1 inch.

Rain chances will quickly taper off Saturday night as we begin to dry out with seasonal temperatures throughout next week. Our next and only best chance for rain past Friday night will be Sunday night, with low chances across the eastern half of South Texas and medium chances across the western half as another weak cold front moves through the area.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

A mix of VFR/MVFR prevailing conditions is expected to persist throughout much of the TAF period with VFR conditions returning by around 15Z tomorrow morning. Have maintained PROB30s for IFR conditions related to showers and thunderstorms. There's a small chance for LIFR CIGs. Expecting best chance (~30%) for storms is between 06-12Z around LRD/COT with chances tapering off throughout the day.

MARINE

Issued at 241 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

A gentle southeasterly breeze (BF 3) will continue through Sunday before winds veer to the northeast Monday morning and increase to a moderate breeze (BF 4). However, those stronger winds will be short lived as a gentle breeze is expected to return by Monday night. Low chances (20-35%) for showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday night through Saturday morning and then again Sunday night. Other than that, dry conditions are expected across the Gulf waters.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 120 AM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Relative humidity values will generally remain at or above 35% through the period although min RHs could briefly drop below 35% over the Rio Grande Plains on Sunday. This, combined with sustained 20 foot winds less than 20 mph and Energy Release Components (ERCs) below the 40th percentile will preclude fire weather concerns. Wetting rain chances will peak Friday into Saturday particularly across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. and persist through Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 75 86 74 90 / 30 20 0 0 Victoria 71 86 70 89 / 30 50 10 0 Laredo 73 89 73 96 / 60 30 0 0 Alice 73 89 72 93 / 50 20 10 0 Rockport 76 87 76 88 / 20 20 10 0 Cotulla 71 88 70 95 / 50 20 0 0 Kingsville 74 87 73 91 / 40 20 0 0 Navy Corpus 77 84 77 86 / 20 10 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.