textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 125 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- Medium rain chances over the northern Victoria Crossroads today, with medium rain chances persisting through Wednesday over the northern half of the area.

- Slight Risk of flash flooding (level 2 of 4) through tonight and again on Wednesday.

- Max heat indices 104 to 108 degrees this afternoon with a moderate risk of heat-related impacts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

The main changes from WPC's side is that they have upgraded to a Moderate Risk along the Rio Grande Plains north of Webb County, placing portions of the northern Brush Country/Coastal Plains and into the Victoria Crossroads under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for flash flooding through tonight. While most of the shower activity will remain north of this area through Wednesday night, PWATs in excess of 2.1" will support a moderate to heavy rainfall rates for any slow- moving/training storm(s). The greatest threat for the northern Brush Country comes on Wednesday, and such, the WPC will expand the Slight Risk for flash flooding for most of South Texas, though confidence in the overall spatial extent of these moderate rainfalls will be dependent on how the storms Tuesday night develop in the Hill Country.

For this reason, heavy rain mentions have been added to the Zone Forecast Product (ZFP) to highlight this added threat, though the greatest confidence in the highest totals will generally be closer to Hill Country and the Rio Grande Plains near Del Rio.

Previous Discussion...

Slightly drier air, as noted by satellite PWAT estimates of around 1.9 inches has filtered into the area on the leading edge of a SAL plume, although this plume is not as significant in terms of dust concentrations than the plume which impacted the area a couple weeks ago. At mid-lvls, weak ridging will briefly build in today, before mid-lvl heights fall Tuesday into the mid-week period as an easterly disturbance pivots southwestward into the area. AM streamer showers and PM sea breeze storms should mostly focus over the Victoria Crossroads and northern third of the area today where better moisture will be present (and is favored by the 1000-700mb flow direction), but can't rule out an isolated sea-breeze driven storm further south this afternoon. Late tonight into Tuesday morning there a decaying MCS may approach the area from the north but confidence is not high in this activity actually making it to our area with much intensity.

Tuesday into Wednesday, can expect quite a bit of convection over Central Texas as the aforementioned mid-lvl disturbance slides southwestward along a quasi-stationary 850-700mb boundary. With moisture pooling north of the area along this boundary, the southern 2/3rds of the area should remain largely dry, with rain chances a bit higher over northern portions of the area, closer to the boundary (and various southward-progressing MCSs). As mentioned in previous discussions heavy rainfall would be the main threat, but the greatest threat looks to stay mostly to our north. The disturbance will shift west of the area Thursday into Friday as ridging rebuilds westward over the area with largely dry conditions prevailing Friday into the weekend (outside of isolated sea-breeze driven activity).

Today will be another hot and muggy day before we see some limited cooling Tuesday into Wednesday as cloud cover increases and rain chances remain elevated over northern portions of the area. We will then see a warm up to near and then potentially slightly above seasonal normals late this week. A moderate (level 2 of 4) heat risk will be present most days, largely driven by warm overnight lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will primarily be confined to the Victoria Crossroads through this evening with a lull in precipitation through at least 08Z. Confidence is low for rainfall activity for KVCT overnight, but high enough to add in PROB30 mentions for SHRA starting around 12Z, but generally MVFR for VIS/CIG from 08Z-12Z. All other terminals have low enough confidence to exclude additional PROB30 precipitation lines, but will be worth monitoring based on the evening CAMs and radar trends.

MARINE

Issued at 125 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Generally gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) southeasterly-southerly winds with seas running 2 to 3 ft should persist through mid-week. Generally low to medium (25 to 40 percent) rain chances are expected today with any appreciable rain chances through Tuesday being largely confined to the northern waters. Winds then become more moderate to fresh in the beyond Wednesday with seas increasing to 4- 5 ft.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 79 91 80 89 / 10 0 20 30 Victoria 77 90 76 88 / 40 40 40 60 Laredo 78 99 78 95 / 10 10 20 30 Alice 76 94 77 91 / 10 0 20 20 Rockport 82 90 81 90 / 10 10 30 40 Cotulla 77 94 76 89 / 20 20 60 60 Kingsville 77 92 78 90 / 10 0 10 10 Navy Corpus 82 89 82 88 / 0 10 20 30

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.