textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 605 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

- Fire Danger Statement for the southern Coastal Bend through 7 PM this evening.

- Temperatures climb through the weekend before another strong cold front moves through late Sunday night.

- Below-normal low temperatures in store tonight and Monday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Dry conditions have settled across South Texas behind yesterday's frontal passage, bringing breezy northerly winds, lower humidity, and elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon across the southern Coastal Bend. By tonight, winds will decrease and skies will remain clear, creating favorable conditions for efficient radiational cooling. Overnight lows will fall into the lower 40s across inland areas and in the 50s along the immediate coast. These cool conditions will be brief, as surface high pressure shifts east on Friday and winds turn to the southeast, initiating a warming trend and gradually increasing moisture through the weekend.

Temperatures will continue to climb through the weeekend as that southeasterly flow strengthens and WAA intensifies through across the region. By Sunday, unseasonably warm conditions are expected across much of South Texas, with widespread highs in the 90s and temperatures approaching the triple digits across the Rio Grande Plains. A strengthening pressure gradient ahead of the next cold front will also lead to breezy conditions on Sunday.

The aforementioned cold front will move through the region late Sunday night, bringing another shift to northerly winds and ushering in cooler and drier conditions early next week. While some limited moisture may be present ahead of the boundary, rain chances currently appear very low (10-15%) and any precipitation should remain isolated. Behind the front, temperatures will fall back below seasonal normals, with Tuesday morning lows ranging from the 40s across much of South Texas to potentially dipping into the upper 30s across the Victoria Crossroads, depending on how efficiently the cooler air settles into the region. Breezy post-frotnal winds and dry air could once again lead to elevated fire weather concerns early in the week. Temperatures will begin to moderate by Tuesday afternoon as southeasterly flow returns, leading to a gradual warming trend through midweek.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 605 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF cycle with clear skies. Prevailing groups in the TAFs account for the increase in S'ly winds Friday morning, and to account for the sea-breeze wind shift and increase to near 15 kt sustained SE winds for KCRP after 19Z.

MARINE

Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Lingering elevated marine conditions will continue for the next few hours with a moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) north-northeasterly breeze and 6-8 foot seas. By tonight, winds drop to light to gentle (BF 2- 3) levels and seas to 2-4 feet, continuing through Saturday morning. Ahead of our next cold front passage, winds increase once again to become moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) through late Sunday into early Monday morning. Behind the front, we will see a return of near-gale to gale force (BF 7-8) conditions through much of the day on Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 222 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

North-northeasterly will continue their downward trend this afternoon, going from 15-20 mph to 5-10 mph by sunset. Minimum RH values have dropped as low as 15-20% for the Brush Country and western Coastal Plains and as low as 20-30% along the coast. While winds are gradually decreasing, occasional higher gusts combined with the low humidity and Energy Release Components (ERCs) in the 70th-89th percentile, a Fire Danger Statement remains in effect until 7 PM tonight. Minimum RH values will generally remain under 30% for inland locations through the weekend, keeping the fire risk elevated but under critical conditions. Our next cold front is forecast to push through late Sunday night. Behind this front, minimum RH values are expected to drop to 10-20% by Monday afternoon, likely leading to near-critical fire weather conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 48 78 58 82 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 43 78 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 46 85 57 94 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 44 84 54 89 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 56 74 62 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 46 84 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 45 82 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 57 72 64 77 / 0 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.