textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 648 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

- Moderate Rip Current Risk through Wednesday.

- Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible at times across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains on Wednesday.

- Low rain chances expected at times through the remainder of the work week, increasing to a medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms this weekend as a cold front moves through South Texas.

- Locally heavy rainfall, small hail, gusty winds possible with the rain event this weekend.

- Above normal temperatures continue through the work week, becoming below normal by Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 146 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

With some deeper moisture in place, a low (10-20%) chance of "streamer" showers will be possible across the Coastal Bend and nearshore waters today and again tomorrow. Most locations will remain dry with little to no rain accumulations through Wednesday.

An upper level long wave trough will bring a weak cold front into Central TX Wednesday night/Thursday, but washes out before making it to South Texas. This still brings a 15%-25% chance of showers and thunderstorms across the Brush Country and the Victoria Crossroads and Coastal Plains for Thursday. Some "streamer" showers will continue to be possible across the Coastal Bend Thursday.

Confidence continues to grow with respect to a heavier rainfall event across South Texas this weekend. Models continue to be in fair agreement with an upper trough bringing a moderate to strong cold front through the region sometime between Saturday and Sunday. Precipitable water values will increase to between 1.5-1.9 inches on Saturday ahead of the cold front. There will be some degree of instability ahead of the front with the right entrance region of a 100+ knot upper jet forecast to be over the region. This allows for ample upper-level divergence with the frontal boundary providing strong low level convergence. Forecast soundings indicate long, skinny CAPE profiles, which suggests thunderstorms producing heavy rain are certainly possible. We can't rule out a stronger thunderstorm as well. The Weather Prediction Center has included all of South Texas in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Saturday. Rain looks to continue into Sunday as well with an area wide average of 1 to 1.5 inches of rain possible. Some locations could see higher totals, but there remains significant uncertainty in where the heaviest rain may set up.

The weekend is still a ways off and things can change, so keep up to date with the latest information.

There is a Moderate Rip Current Risk today through Wednesday due to swell periods 6-8 seconds, southeast winds 10-15 knots and an almost full moon.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 648 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

VFR conditions with gusty winds are expected to continue for the next few hours before MVFR ceilings develop around 05/06z when the winds weaken. A few sites will have the potential to drop to IFR for a few hours from 07-12z. VFR conditions will return tomorrow as winds increase once again with sites gusting up to 34-35 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 146 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) southeasterly flow will continue through Wednesday. Periods of a fresh (BF 5) breeze south of Port Aransas to Baffin Bay will be possible each afternoon. A fresh to strong (BF 5-6) breeze is expected to develop Wednesday night into Thursday with advisory conditions possible. A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) breeze develops the remainder of the week. There is a low (10- 30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms through the week with chances increasing this weekend as a cold front moves through the region.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 146 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Minimum relative humidity values are expected to drop slightly below 30% this afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon over the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country. This may lead to brief elevated fire weather conditions when combined with breezy southeasterly flow, and dry fuels. Min RH values are forecast to be higher the latter part of the week. A low chance of showers will return today across the Coastal Bend. A 20-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms can be expected at times through the work week, then increasing chances this weekend, which could help to improve fire weather conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 69 85 71 84 / 0 10 10 10 Victoria 67 85 68 83 / 0 20 10 30 Laredo 70 97 72 95 / 0 0 0 10 Alice 67 91 69 89 / 0 10 0 10 Rockport 71 82 72 81 / 10 20 10 20 Cotulla 67 96 70 91 / 0 0 10 20 Kingsville 68 89 70 88 / 0 10 0 10 Navy Corpus 72 80 72 79 / 10 20 10 20

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.