textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

- Above normal temperatures continue through at least early next week.

- Attention turns to an potential "cold" front towards the middle and latter half of next week, bringing slightly cooler temperatures and increasing rain chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

The hot and dry weather continues through this weekend and into the first half of next week, but the overall conditions become a little more favorable Monday and Tuesday for streamer showers in the morning and scattered afternoon sea-breeze thunderstorms.

The big talking point for next week remains the potential arrival of a "cold" front late Wednesday into Thursday. However, there remains significant uncertainty regarding the southern extent of the front, the strength, and the timing.

Hurricane Polo continues to be a thorn in the side of the models when it comes to determining how it will interact with the parent trough as it moves across the Desert Southwest early next week. There has been a trend towards it having less of an impact on the depth of the trough compared to what some of the models were showing yesterday.

This means the trough would likely stay farther north, and thus a better chance of the front stalling over Hill Country and not making it into South Texas. But even if that is the case, a pattern change is coming and that will open the door to more westerly flow, increased moisture, and ultimately a better chance for precipitation and cooler temperatures from the middle of next week onward.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected during this TAF period. ALI may see some MVFR visibilities due to fog between 12 to 15Z Saturday morning, otherwise, expect some fair weather cumulus and generally light winds through Saturday afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 115 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) east to southeasterly flow is expected to persist through the the weekend with seas between 2-4 feet. A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) southeast flow picks up Tuesday into Tuesday night ahead of an approaching cold front with seas around 4 to 6 feet. A cold front looks like it will stall out north of the area towards the middle of next week, but regardless, we will see an increased chance of precipitation from Wednesday onward. Confidence remains low on any coverage/intensity of rain, so stay tuned for updates as we get closer.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Fire weather concerns will remain low through the period. Minimum RH values will generally remain above 30 % out west, while southeast winds of 10-15 mph are generally expected. ERC values remain near the 50th-65th percentile with normal fuel dryness across South Texas. RFTI values near zero further support minimal fire weather concerns. Increasing moisture and rain chances by the middle of next week should further limit fire weather potential.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 77 93 76 95 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 71 98 72 100 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 75 100 76 102 / 10 0 0 0 Alice 73 97 72 99 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 78 92 78 92 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 75 99 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 74 96 74 97 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 81 89 81 90 / 0 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.