textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 216 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

- Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of strong to severe storms tonight in the Brush Country.

-Flood Watch in effect area-wide through Monday as multiple rounds of storms bring a marginal to slight risk of flash flooding each day.

-Increasing risk of river flooding by this weekend due to continued rounds of heavy rainfall.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Widespread heavy rain across the Coastal Plains this morning have further increased chances for flash flooding especially on Saturday.

In the short term, it does look like a break from repeated overnight MCS party we've been having. That's not to say there wont be any convection tonight, but the chances are lower. Expect convection to develop once again over Mexico, but the question is will it hold together and push across the area tonight. This convection is notoriously difficult to figure out, and often not depicted well on models. Right now the most probable solution looks to be a decaying MCS moving down from the northwest toward out area. Sticking with only low PoPs tonight as confidence is pretty low. Instability will also be lower tonight with lower daytime temperatures. Friday also looks to be a fairly quiet day with mainly low PoPs for some scattered showers or storms as weak shortwaves continue to push across the region but temporarily lower moisture air moves in.

By Saturday we are looking a little more robust in terms of convection potential with a stronger shortwave pushing across along with a favorable upper level jet position. This pattern will also feature a mid-level low cutting off and meandering around North Texas for the latter part of the weekend. PWAT values above 2" move in Saturday as deep moisture streams out of the Pacific and across Mexico. These values are near seasonal max values (95-99%) and will make for efficient rain production and rainfall rates between 2 and 3 inches per hour seem likely. Considering most of the Coastal Bend has seen 3-6" of rain over the past 3 days, we will definitely be looking for potential flash flooding. We remain in a slight (1 of 4) risk in the excessive rainfall outlook, but would not be surprised to see an increase to moderate as we get closer to Saturday. In addition to the flash flood concern, river flooding concerns will increase on Saturday. Overall rainfall totals through Saturday look to be in the 2-4" range for most of the area, but as we've seen the past couple of nights, locally higher rainfall amounts will be possible.

We'll see a decrease in rain chances heading into early next week, but we'll have to keep an eye on the next disturbance Tuesday night into Wednesday for another elevated chance of convection.

Temperatures will remain in check through the end of the period with highs slightly below normal - mainly in the 80s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the rest of today The chances for thunderstorms overnight tonight is lower than the past few nights and have just Prob30 in for most sites. Could see periods of MVFR CIGS in the overnight period, especially in and around thunderstorms. Winds remain generally weak, except for in and around storms.

MARINE

Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Generally gentle to moderate E-SE winds will prevail through the weekend over the waters. The main exception to this will be brief periods of gusty and erratic winds (and elevated seas) in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Low chances for Thunderstorms are in place through Fri Thunderstorm chances remain high (60-80%) day before increasing chances Saturday and Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 72 87 75 84 / 40 30 30 80 Victoria 69 85 71 83 / 30 40 20 90 Laredo 70 91 73 87 / 30 10 30 70 Alice 70 88 73 84 / 30 30 20 80 Rockport 76 86 78 82 / 40 30 30 80 Cotulla 68 89 71 84 / 40 20 40 80 Kingsville 71 87 73 84 / 40 30 30 80 Navy Corpus 76 86 78 85 / 40 30 30 70

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Monday evening for TXZ229>234-239>247- 342>347-442-443-447.

GM...None.