textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 537 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

- Low rain chances Friday, increasing to medium to high rain chances (50-90%) this weekend. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall is in place for most of South Texas Saturday, with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for the northern Brush Country.

- A Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather is in place for Saturday over the northern portion of the area, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 2) for the remainder of South Texas. The main hazard will be damaging winds with some isolated large hail possible.

- Elevated fire weather conditions expected across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains this afternoon. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect from noon to 6 pm.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1106 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Low (10-25%) chances of rain will develop this afternoon as a mid- to upper-level trough moves into the Southern Plains. A 30-40 knot LLJ will continue to transport deep moisture into South Texas which, when combined with a series of shortwave disturbances and favorable upper-level jet dynamics will support convective development.

An associated cold front will move southeast into Texas on Saturday. Steep mid-level lapse rates in the warm sector ahead of the front and a favorable deep-layer wind profile could lead to the development of large hail. A Slight Risk of severe weather is in place for the northern portions of South Texas with a Marginal Risk over the remainder of the region. Large hail and strong winds will be the primary risks with these storms.

Heavy rainfall will also be a concern with deep moisture interacting with the stalled cold front. While we can certainly use the rain, we will need to monitor for flash flooding as heavy rain falls over dry and compacted soils.

Rain chances will continue through the weekend as a cutoff low is expected to move east across Texas which will send additional shortwaves across the area. This will lead to slightly cooler temperatures, though we will remain above normal until the middle of the week when another cold front is expected.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 537 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

MVFR CIGs this morning will give way to VFR between 14-18Z. MVFR conditions are expected once again tonight. Strong gusty S-SE winds will continue through the TAF cycle. Gusts 28-33 knots can be expected this afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1106 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect through this afternoon across the southern bays and nearshore waters with a moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) southeasterly breeze today. Winds will diminish back to moderate (BF 4) late this weekend before becoming gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) by early next week. There is a low (<20%) chance of showers across the waters through Friday, increasing to a medium (30-60%) chance over the weekend in response to a passing mid- to upper-level disturbance. Rain and storm chances (20-40%) will continue through the middle of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1106 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible again this afternoon over the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect from noon to 6 PM today. Chances for precipitation will generally remain low (approximately 20-25%) through Friday, but will increase to a medium to high (50-90%) chance over the weekend with a passing mid- to upper-level disturbance.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 84 70 82 68 / 10 10 20 60 Victoria 83 70 84 63 / 10 10 40 70 Laredo 95 71 94 65 / 10 10 30 80 Alice 90 70 89 66 / 20 10 20 70 Rockport 79 70 79 68 / 10 10 20 60 Cotulla 92 71 90 63 / 20 10 60 90 Kingsville 88 71 88 68 / 20 10 20 60 Navy Corpus 78 70 77 70 / 10 10 20 60

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ231- 232-250.