textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 617 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

- Heat Advisory is in effect for the southern Coastal Bend this afternoon.

- Heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat is increasing for the end of the week. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for Thursday through Friday. There is a Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall for the western half of S TX and a Slight Risk for the eastern half on Thursday. There is a Slight Risk for the western areas on Friday.

- There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms on Thursday from the Coastal Plains to the Rio Grande Plains.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 111 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Today will continue to be hot, with heat index values nearing 113 over Jim Wells, Kleberg, Nueces, and San Patricio counties this afternoon. A Heat Advisory is in effect this afternoon.

Deep moisture will continue to stream into the area from multiple sources over the next few days. Increased low level flow will herald in Gulf moisture, while an upper level low will bring in deep moisture from the Pacific as well as the remnants of Hurricane Polo. PWATs will increase to nearly 2.5 inches today and Thursday, with some guidance hinting at PWATs nearing 2.7 inches (though this seems excessive). As shortwaves embedded in the trough move toward the area, a 20-35% of showers and thunderstorms will develop today. By Thursday, widespread convection is expected to develop across the area as a pre-frontal surface trough develops.

A cold front is then expected to move across the area Friday, continuing our heavy rain chances through the weekend. Guidance has come into a little better agreement, indicating the cold front stalling Friday night along the coast, then pushing off the coast Sunday. Confidence is still low to medium regarding the timing, strength, and if and where the cold front will stall. Regardless, medium rain chances will continue through the weekend as the upper low moves slowly east across Texas.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

As we get closer to the heavy rain event, TAFs will begin to get messier. Mostly VFR conditions are expected, but periods of MVFR will crash the party throughout the next 24 hours. Thunderstorms are currently approaching LRD and COT with more development expected across the eastern sites later today. Winds will remain gusty throughout the forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 111 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Fresh (BF 5) breezes over the waters has led to a Small Craft Advisory through early this morning. Winds will diminish back to a gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) southeasterly flow today before increasing to a fresh to occasionally strong (BF 5-6) breeze this evening. Another Small Craft Advisory is possible this evening. Winds will weaken Friday, then shift to the east/northeast Friday night and Saturday as a cold front moves across the waters. Low rain chances today will increase to a high chance tonight through the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 111 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

No significant fire weather concerns are anticipated through the period. Increasing moisture will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms starting today through the weekend. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible across all of South Texas, with widespread wetting rainfall expected to limit fire weather concerns through the latter half of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 94 81 94 78 / 20 20 70 70 Victoria 98 78 97 73 / 30 30 80 80 Laredo 103 80 97 74 / 10 40 80 100 Alice 99 79 98 74 / 10 10 80 80 Rockport 92 82 92 77 / 20 30 60 70 Cotulla 102 78 93 73 / 10 30 90 100 Kingsville 97 80 96 76 / 10 10 70 80 Navy Corpus 90 83 91 81 / 30 20 40 70

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Friday evening for TXZ229>232-239>244.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ241>244-342>344.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ231-232- 236-237-250-255-275.