textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1129 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

- Fog potential increases Thursday night and Friday night.

- Cold front Saturday will bring temperatures back near normal Sunday into early next week.

- Fire weather concerns Sunday with very low RH and gusty winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1129 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Interesting fog forecast for tonight. Low level moisture has increased substantially along the coast which has led to a very heavy haze with VIS generally 3-5 miles. Surface winds along the immediate coast have remained elevated and should mostly remain up through the night. Another important factor is winds at 925mb where after midnight they are forecast to increase to levels that should limit real fog, especially over the eastern half of the forecast area. Throw in there the marine fog situation - VIS down around 1-2 miles so far...but surface winds are expected to shift more southerly and the aforementioned 925 winds should also impact the vis over the water, so would not be at all surprised to see VIS over the water and immediate coast to improve after midnight. Farther west, over the Brush country where winds are less would have a better chance, but moisture not as high there and expect it to be mainly patchy fog. All that said...confidence isn't great in the fog situation, but leaning toward a relatively low impact tonight. Thursday night and Friday night likely a different story with less wind above the surface to limit the lower VIS.

As for the rest of the forecast, things remain pretty well on track. Cold front still expected Saturday, and think ahead of the front we will see isolated streamer type showers off the water, mainly in the morning hours with a shallow layer of moisture (below 850mb) and moisture flux convergence between 20 and 50 (g/kg/12hr) which is a sweet spot for streamer development along with a bit of instability. Certainly not expecting any substantial rains...a couple hundredths of an inch (if anything) is probably about all we will see.

After well above normal temperatures Thursday through Saturday, the cold front will bring us back to near normal values Sunday into early next week with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s. Low chance Victoria Crossroads may drop into the upper 30s. It'll come as little surprise that this cool down will not last long, and high temps return to the 80s by Wednesday as high pressure builds over the region.

One other item of note will be winds on Sunday behind the front. Expect a pretty gusty day, especially in the Coastal Plains. With RH values lowering, will have to watch for elevated fire concerns and a red flag warning may become necessary.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

MVFR conditions brought by reduced CIGs and VIS continue to spread throughout the area. 925 hPa winds continues to bring in plenty of moisture into the region leading to hazy conditions along the coastal plains and Victoria Crossroads. Closer to the coast, the winds will continue above 10kt and thus reducing the risk of even lower VIS, while further inland, the weakening of the winds will result in more opportunity for denser fog and flight conditions worsening to IFR/LIFR. Locations in the western Brush Country will only see a brief period of MVFR conditions closer to 12Z. Winds will be more E'ly beyond 18Z with a return of fog/haze towards the end of the TAF cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1129 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Southerly winds increase tonight to fresh to occasionally strong as a low-level jet strengthens over the waters. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect through early Thursday morning for the open waters. Winds diminish through the day Thursday, leading to gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore flow through the remainder of the week, with occasionally fresh (BF 5) breezes. Dry conditions will continue until this weekend when low chances (15-20%) for showers return over area waters ahead of our next front. This frontal passage will also shift winds to the north-northeast with fresh to strong (BF 5-6) conditions and seas at 6-10 feet. This could lead to the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory closer to time, while near Gale force gusts could become possible offshore.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1129 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Min RH values in the Brush Country could drop to low levels on Thursday with ERCs out west remaining slightly elevated (50th-69th percentile). Though with light winds persisting in the area fire concerns will be limited. RH values rebound Friday, but then fall to low levels over much of the area Saturday into early next week as a cold front moves through the area. While winds dont increase until late in the day Saturday and should have limited overlap with low RH. Sunday, however winds will be gusty and RH values drop to 10- 25% over a majority of the area. The potential for elevated or even critical fire conditions is increasing for Sunday and a red flag warning may become necessary. RH values remain low Monday, but wind will also be weaker. Gradually increasing RH is then expected through the middle of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 85 66 84 64 / 0 0 10 0 Victoria 83 62 83 62 / 0 0 10 0 Laredo 92 65 93 64 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 89 63 90 62 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 80 66 80 66 / 0 0 20 0 Cotulla 89 63 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 89 64 89 62 / 0 0 10 0 Navy Corpus 78 67 78 66 / 0 0 10 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ250-255-270- 275.