textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 143 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

- Strong cold front moves through Saturday with sharply cooler temperatures behind it.

- Showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through Tuesday

- Minor Coastal Flooding possible into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 143 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

This afternoon's forecast package looks mostly unchanged from this morning. With respect to rain chances as the front approaches, the latest guidance has most of the showers and thunderstorms popping up along the cold front itself Saturday afternoon evening, followed by the more stratiform rain thereafter (though as mentioned, elevated instability could cause showers to have higher reflectivity and higher rainfall rates). Most of this rain will be spread out across several days, so unless storms train across the same area, most of what falls will go towards increasing the soil moisture across the area. As such, WPC has kept our Excessive Rainfall Outlook Marginal (Level 1 of 4) on Monday/Tuesday.

With respect to coastal flooding, tides are running 0.5-1 ft above predictions with water levels approaching 1.5 ft above MSL. Given the increased outdoor activities on our beaches this weekend, those heading out should be aware that 7-8 second wave periods would be enough energy to have minor coastal flooding issues near high tide. We will keep monitoring and consider issuing an advisory as needed.

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The interesting part of the forecast begins Saturday with a relatively strong frontal boundary for this time of year, enhanced by a deep mid-level trough in the middle of the country. Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are expected to accompany the front, but with meager cape and only marginal shear, strong storms don't look especially likely. Most of the convection will likely be elevated behind the front. Expect breezy conditions behind the font with very wind conditions along the coast and into the open waters. Temperatures Sunday and Monday with be mainly in the 70s, and some locations may not even make 70.

The Sunday through Tuesday period could be a bit interesting with a few ingredients suggesting our rain chances remain elevated through this period. First of all, a fairly good isentropic lift pattern sets up while surface winds remain northeast to east and winds above the surface shift back around to the southeast. A weak coastal trough developing will also help to keep moisture pushing into the region. Additionally, in the mid-levels we'll a couple of shortwaves cloud enough to impact the area. Will this bring a lot of rain? Not as much as we need, but an area wide average over half an inch is definitely in the cards with localized totals more an an inch. Looking at the high end of things (10% probability of exceedance), we could see some spots of 2 inches or more. Considering this is over a 3 day period, flash flooding concerns are unlikely at this time.

Gradually warming conditions are expected as we head through next week with dry conditions after Tuesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 143 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

VFR conditions this afternoon will continue through tonight with CIGs decreasing overnight leading to MVFR conditions. TEMPO groups have been added for low chances of VIS reductions in the case that winds subside enough to allow shallow fog to form.

MARINE

Issued at 143 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

A small craft advisory remains in effect through early Saturday morning. Winds subside a bit Saturday before very strong northeasterly flow develops behind a cold front Saturday night into Sunday. Showers and a few thunderstorms will be expected Saturday night into early next week. Winds will subside early next week shifting from east to southeast.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 143 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Rain chances return this weekend with the passage of a cold front Saturday afternoon. Wetting rains are possible with an area wide average of 0.5 to an inch of rain currently expected this weekend through the first half of the upcoming week. Expect windy conditions behind the front, and this will persist through Sunday along the immediate coast. Winds behind the front will be mainly northeast, with no real offshore flow anticipated. Conditions become drier and warmer by mid-week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 73 84 61 71 / 0 10 60 30 Victoria 69 85 56 72 / 0 40 70 10 Laredo 73 90 58 65 / 0 30 90 60 Alice 71 87 59 72 / 0 20 70 40 Rockport 74 84 62 75 / 0 20 60 30 Cotulla 69 85 56 70 / 0 30 70 30 Kingsville 71 87 60 71 / 0 10 60 40 Navy Corpus 74 81 64 73 / 0 10 70 40

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ231-232-250.