textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 130 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

- Medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain continues tonight through Monday.

- Slight Risk [level 2 of 4]) of Excessive Rainfall through tonight with flash flooding possible. A Marginal Risk exists for Monday.

- Flood Watch is in effect through Monday morning.

- Minor coastal flooding expected through Monday night during times of high tide.

- High Rip Current Risk continues tonight and Monday.

- Small Craft Advisory conditions expected through 3 PM Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Latest radar indicated that the heavier rainfall is moving off the coast south of Port Aransas, while light rain continues across S TX this afternoon. Generally light rain is expected to continue through the early evening hours. Models are in good agreement with another round of heavy rainfall tonight into Monday morning. This is in response to another embedded short wave trough tracking northeast ahead of a cut off mid level low that is currently centered over W TX and northern Mexico. The low is providing large scale ascent across the region, while a surface trough that is meandering across S TX is providing low level moisture convergence. Combined with the deep moisture across the area, this setup is conducive for additional heavy rainfall. An additional 2-4 inches with isolated 5- 6 inches will be possible tonight through Monday, mainly across the southern Brush Country to southern Coastal Bend. This additional rain on top of saturated soil from the earlier rain, will increase the risk of flash flooding. Models indicate that the heavier rain/showers and thunderstorms will move across the Brush Country this evening and the remainder of S TX overnight through Monday morning. The Victoria Crossroads will also have additional rain tonight and Monday and are in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. Additional rainfall amounts across the Crossroads are expected to range from 0.5-1.5 inches. Can not rule out higher amounts around 2-3 inches.

Rain chances decrease to a medium chance Monday afternoon. Low to medium rain chances expected Tuesday and Wednesday. The potential for a cold front by Thursday could bring drier and cooler conditions to south TX the latter part of the week.

Another concern is high risk of rip currents and minor coastal flooding continuing on Monday. The chance of minor coastal flooding along gulf facing beaches will increase once again Monday during high tide. This is due to a strengthening east-northeast flow across the gulf waters tonight into Monday, which is conducive for pushing the water up to the dunes during high tide. In addition, normal tide levels will also be on the increase due to the new moon. Latest P- ETSS run indicated that tide levels may exceed the 2ft MSL threshold during high tide Monday afternoon with with up to 2.5 feet above MSL possible. The caveat is that models keep the long period swells at 7 seconds or less, but this may be under-estimated. Will continue to monitor trends for any changes to the tide levels and swells.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 130 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Light rain is expected through the remainder of the afternoon, then another round of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain tonight into Monday morning. This will lead to a mix of prevailing MVFR conditions and periods of IFR/LIFR through the TAF cycle. Strong gusty winds will also be possible in and around TSRAs.

MARINE

Issued at 130 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

East to northeast winds at 20-25 kts will continue tonight into Monday morning along with seas 6-8 ft, thus maintaining Small Craft Advisory conditions. Winds are expected to decrease to moderate (BF 4) levels by Monday night. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected tonight through at least Monday night. Low to medium rain chances expected Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a cold front.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 130 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Due to the high chance for widespread wetting rains this weekend and above 40% across South Texas through the upcoming week, the fire risk will remain low.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 66 74 63 74 / 80 80 30 40 Victoria 56 69 55 73 / 70 90 20 30 Laredo 62 69 62 71 / 100 90 70 30 Alice 60 71 58 71 / 90 90 60 40 Rockport 64 76 62 77 / 80 80 30 40 Cotulla 56 66 58 69 / 100 100 60 30 Kingsville 65 74 61 74 / 90 90 50 40 Navy Corpus 70 76 68 76 / 80 80 30 50

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Monday morning for TXZ229>233-239>246- 342>346-442-443.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM CST Tuesday for TXZ245-342>347- 442-443-447.

High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for TXZ345-442- 443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Monday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275.