textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 131 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

- Moderate-major risk of heat-related impacts through the week, with peak heat indices 106 to 112, and high to extreme WBGT values.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms today, with any storm having the potential to produce strong winds.

- Elevated fire weather conditions over the western Brush Country through at least mid-week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 131 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

A decaying boundary is currently positioned over northern portions of the area with southerly flow observed over the Coastal Plains and light northerly or light and variable winds over northern areas. Moisture-pooling along this boundary is also noted in satellite PWAT estimates which peak in the 2.2 inch range near the Victoria Crossroads. This boundary will remain over the today while a weakening mid-lvl vort max will shift southward into the area this morning. There will be about a 20-25 percent chances of showers and storms with this initial AM impulse (focused over the northern third of the area), with a secondary round (roughly 25-30% chance) of storms may develop further south later this afternoon as the sea breeze interacts with the aforementioned boundary. Although I don't expect storm coverage to be more than scattered, inverted V profiles with DCAPE values over 1200 J/kg will support some stronger downbursts, and wouldn't even totally rule out a rogue severe gust. The boundary will wash out by Monday, with PWATs dropping to below climo for the remainder of the week as more consistent southeasterly low-lvl flow returns. Given the influence of the H5 ridge to our west and the lack of any appreciable mid-lvl disturbances, rain chances will be below 15% through the workweek, although there will be low chances of sea breeze activity returning in the latter half of the week.

Although increased cloud cover today will likely result in slightly cooler conditions than Saturday's scorcher we will remain seasonably warm through the forecast period with high temperatures largely in the triple digits west of I-77, and 90s elsewhere. These temperatures combined with lows barely clearing 80 degrees will maintain a moderate to major heat risk each day. Max heat indices will also flirt with heat advisory criteria each day Monday through Thursday and short-fused advisories will need to be considered. Finally, for anyone doing strenuous activities in direct sunlight, WBGT values will peak in the high to extreme range, occasionally even exceeding 90 degrees. To sum it all up, make sure to stay hydrated, take frequent cooling breaks, and seek shade when possible as the dog days of summer are upon us in South Texas.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 131 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions expected after 09Z initially due to light patchy fog and low clouds, then rain chances increase to 15- 30% across the northern Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads toward sunrise in response to a meandering boundary. Rain chances spread south later in the day Sunday for LRD, ALI and CRP. Thus, could continue to see MVFR conditions in and around showers and thunderstorms through Sunday afternoon. Rain chances are expected to diminish by Sunday afternoon across COT and VCT and in the early evening for LRD, ALI and CRP. VFR conditions are expected Sunday evening through 06Z, but brief MVFR conditions are possible once again overnight Sunday into Monday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 131 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

A gentle to moderate onshore (largely S-SE) flow can be expected through the forecast period, with occasional fresh winds during the overnight and morning hours. Seas will generally range from 2-3 feet through the early part of the week. The only appreciable rain chances in the period will be today and even then chances will only be around 20%.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 131 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Min RHs will generally drop into the 20-30% range each afternoon through at least the mid-week period over the western Brush country and Rio Grande Plains. These low RHs combined with ERCs in the 60- 75th percentile range will support elevated fire weather conditions over this region each day. Winds will generally remain light today into Monday before increasing into the 10-15kt range out of the SE on Tuesday. There will be a 20-30% chance of rain today with rain chances dipping below 10% for the remainder of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 95 78 96 79 / 20 0 0 0 Victoria 99 75 99 76 / 20 0 0 0 Laredo 101 79 104 79 / 30 20 0 0 Alice 99 76 101 76 / 20 10 0 0 Rockport 93 81 92 81 / 20 0 0 0 Cotulla 103 78 104 78 / 20 0 0 0 Kingsville 98 77 99 77 / 30 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 91 81 90 81 / 10 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ242-342.

GM...None.