textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1247 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

- Winter Storm Warnings and Advisories in Effect through Sunday morning for freezing rain potential. Greatest impacts likely from Live Oak to the Victoria Crossroads

- Be alert for black ice inland early Sunday morning from wet roads during the day today, bridges and overpasses especially!

- Extremely cold wind chills region-wide Monday morning, ranging as low as 5-15 degrees. Prepare to protect the 4 Ps: People, plants, pets, and pipes.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1247 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

The strong arctic front has now plunged south of San Antonio and east of Eagle Pass on the swinging backside, trending faster than previous model runs. The front will likely reach our northern counties from La Salle to Victoria in just a couple hours, then continue to rush southward extending passed Baffin Bay by 9 AM this morning. We'll maintain a medium to high chance for showers and a lower chance for thunderstorms through this morning, before we get weaker coverage of overrunning showers in the afternoon. High temperatures today have dropped to account for the faster progression. Honestly, the highs in the climate for today are likely occurring right now.

Another wave of showers and a few thunderstorms will pass over tonight into Sunday morning as the mid-level trough drapes across Texas. During this time, PWATs will continue to run above-normal (75-90th percentile) at 1.25-1.5" while CAA cause temperatures to lower. While model guidance was in fairly good agreement with freezing temperatures and periods of freezing rain where the Winter Storm Warning is in effect, there was less agreement south. Primarily, models varied on how far south freezing temperatures extend but generally agreed with precipitation lingering through Sunday mid-morning.

Considering that temperatures are colder than recent runs looking upstream throughout the past several hours and FROPA keeps speeding up, I am more concerned we are underestimating just how far south freezing temperatures will make it. Therefore, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the rest of South Texas with the exception of the islands. It's definitely not out of the question for temperatures to reach freezing across the region, and if it does, roads will likely be wet from rain during the day. These wet roads can freeze, especially on bridges and overpasses, creating black ice and dangerous conditions. Black ice and the brief window of light freezing rain early Sunday morning warrants a Winter Weather Advisory mention.

Early morning lows Monday and Tuesday look to be extreme and likely record breaking, dropping into the teens inland and to the low-mid 20s along the coast and Rio Grande. An Extreme Cold Warning applies everywhere Monday morning with wind chills dropping in the single digits over the inland Victoria Crossroads and the low to mid teens elsewhere.

Temperatures warm back into the 50s and 60s mid-late next week but another cold front will likely swing across Wednesday to Thursday, bringing near freezing conditions again. However, moisture will struggle to return and therefore have no precipitation chances mentioned.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Conditions will continue to be unsettled through much of the period as a strong arctic front moves across the region, bringing with it widespread MVFR to IFR CIGs, periods of showers and thunderstorms, and gusty, shifting winds. Ahead of the front, we are already seeing low CIGs, scattered showers, and some reduced VSBYs. Increasing coverage of thunderstorms can be expected late tonight into Saturday morning. Some of those storms will be on the stronger side, producing brief IFR/LIFR conditions, heavy rainfall, and gusty outflow winds, particularly for COT/VCT which could see gusts upwards of 30 knots. As the front pushes its way southward Saturday morning, winds will veer to the north-northeast at speeds of 10-15 knots with occasional gusts up to 25 knots. Low CIGs will continue and rain showers will linger through the afternoon. By the end of this TAF period, we'll be monitoring for the the potential for freezing rain late Saturday night through Sunday morning. Confidence is moderate for the northern Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads, but low confidence for the southern areas due to timing of the arrival of the freezing temps compared to when the precipitation moves into and out of the area. Overall confidence increases past 06Z Sunday, so will need to include mention of FZRA in the next TAF cycle for COT/VCT at a minimum.

MARINE

Issued at 1247 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) onshore breeze early this morning will shift to a northerly direction and increase to strong to near Gale (BF 6-7) behind a strong arctic front later this morning. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected through Monday. Gust to gale will be possible at times, especially Sunday night. Rain chances will increase to a moderate to high chance and continue through Sunday morning. Temperatures will be around freezing along the coast with wind chill values feeling well below freezing during late Saturday night through Monday morning. Gentle to moderate onshore flow briefly returns the middle of next week before another cold front threatens to push through.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1247 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Moisture levels across South Texas will continue to be elevated ahead of the greatly advertised arctic front. Minimum RH vales are expected to stay mostly above 30% through mid-week next week, with the exception of Monday and Tuesday when values may briefly dip to 25-30%. However, light winds should prevent any meaningful fire weather concerns. As for precipitation, chances remain medium to high through Sunday morning, with only an isolated thunderstorm potential tonight. The aforementioned front moving through today will bring a rapid drop in temperatures. There is a small potential for freezing rain/drizzle early Sunday morning across the Victoria Crossroads and inland Coastal Plains. Subfreezing temperatures are expected each night from Saturday night through Monday night, with wind chills falling into the single digits by Monday morning. Overall, no fire weather conditions are expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 64 32 45 23 / 80 80 20 0 Victoria 52 26 37 18 / 100 90 30 0 Laredo 55 37 50 26 / 50 40 10 0 Alice 55 32 47 23 / 70 80 10 0 Rockport 61 29 43 24 / 90 80 20 0 Cotulla 47 32 45 23 / 80 80 10 0 Kingsville 66 32 47 23 / 70 80 10 0 Navy Corpus 67 35 45 27 / 80 80 20 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Monday for TXZ229>234-245>247-345>347-447.

Freeze Watch from late tonight through Sunday evening for TXZ229- 239>244-342>345-442-443-447.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for TXZ229-239>244-342>344.

Freeze Warning from 11 PM Sunday to noon CST Monday for TXZ229- 239>244-342>345-442-443-447.

Freeze Warning from 7 PM this evening to noon CST Monday for TXZ230>234-245>247-346-347.

Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Sunday for TXZ230>234-245>247-346-347.

Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 AM CST Monday for TXZ239>244-342>344-442-443.

Extreme Cold Warning from 3 AM to noon CST Monday for TXZ239>244- 342>344-442-443.

Extreme Cold Watch from this evening through Monday morning for TXZ443.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to noon CST Monday for GMZ231-232-236-237.

Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ250-255-270-275.