textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 456 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

- Transition to Warmer, Wetter Pattern Midweek - Strong Cold Front This Weekend Brings Return to Freezing Temperatures - Low-Confidence Potential for Wintry Precipitation

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1146 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

This forecast period begins with a transition toward warmer weather and a more active pattern through the workweek, before a significant Arctic airmass arrives this weekend.

Today through Thursday:

Winds shift out of the east today while deeper moisture advects into the region. This will result in mostly cloudy skies and isolated to scattered rainfall with a low to moderate (30-40%) chance area wide by Tuesday evening. High temperatures this afternoon will hover in the mid to upper 60s. Precipitation chances peak on Wednesday as a weak disturbance moves through the region, with the highest chance of rain 40-70% concentrated over the eastern Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. While precip is likely, rainfall totals are progged to remain between 0.05"-0.25". Moisture quickly tapers off Wednesday night, leading to a steady warming trend. Highs will climb into the low to upper 70s on Thursday, eventually reaching the mid 70s to mid 80s by Friday. Next we'll look ahead to our next strong front and return of freezing temperatures.

Friday Night through next Monday:

The main weather story is a strong cold front slated for this weekend. Confidence remains high that a powerful cold front will surge through South Texas, bringing a return of freezing temperatures. Lows in the 20s to low 30s appear likely by early next week (Sunday and Monday mornings) across the region.

As noted in the previous AFD, the primary forecast challenge continues to be the potential for wintry precipitation. A disturbance over the easter PAC/Baja Peninsula is expected to advect deep Pacific moisture into the region ahead of the front. The critical question remains whether this moisture will linger around long enough to overlap with the arrival of sub-freezing air. While some model solutions hint at winter weather impacts, confidence remains low given we are still about a week out. Forecaster confidence should increase as future model runs give us more resolution and as more guidance begins to capture the event. Residents should prepare for a sharp return to winter conditions and for possible frozen precip this upcoming weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 456 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR conditions will deteriorate between 18Z and 21Z as low clouds build across the area. There is a low chance (20-30%) of showers today. Conditions could drop to IFR in and around any shower activity.

MARINE

Issued at 1146 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) easterly flow today will veer onshore tonight before diminishing to a gentle (BF-3) breeze Wednesday. Flow begins to increase Thursday night becoming a northerly strong to near gale (BF 6-7) by Saturday, gradually diminishing over the weekend with Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. Moderate rain chances over the waters Tuesday peak to a high (80-90%) chance by Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1146 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Minimum relative humidity values today will be be much higher than yesterday as deep moisture increases over the region from the return of onshore flow and upper level moisture. RH values over the remainder of the week expected to range between 45 up to 80% from the west to the coast respectively, accompanied by light to moderate winds. ERC values in the 70th percentile will continue to improve to around the 30-40th percentile, while the forecasted fire danger is low. Our next front is this weekend and frontal passage is likely to be on Saturday. At this time, elevated fire weather conditions are not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 68 60 73 59 / 30 30 50 10 Victoria 64 55 73 56 / 10 20 60 20 Laredo 65 57 74 53 / 20 30 20 0 Alice 68 56 75 55 / 10 20 40 10 Rockport 67 59 70 58 / 30 30 60 20 Cotulla 63 54 72 53 / 10 20 10 0 Kingsville 68 58 74 56 / 20 30 40 10 Navy Corpus 68 63 70 62 / 30 30 60 20

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.