textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 122 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

- Minor coastal flooding will be possible through Wednesday during high tide cycles

- Generally dry across South Texas today with a low chance of rain returning to the region by Monday.

- Potential cold front may sweep through South Texas at the conclusion of the week bringing potential impacts

DISCUSSION

Issued at 122 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Continued drier conditions will last through the remainder of the weekend and through most of next week in South Texas outside of isolated seabreeze showers and thunderstorms. Some residual energy from Hurricane Simon over in the Pacific will look to ride around the periphery of the ridge Monday with South Texas on the right flank of the area of low pressure. Thanks to onshore flow ahead of this will return to the region allowing for deep moisture pooling (PWATs 2.0"+ in the region. The presence of these to factors will likely lead to a low chance for unsettled weather in the region Monday. Coverage will likely not be widespread as guidance is portraying activity being confined to the eastern Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads.

After Monday, we will back to expecting daily seabreeze convection with isolated coverage. Warm temperatures will remain in place until Thursday. This is where the forecast is remaining tricky, some guidance brings a strong cold front down into the region (Canadian and the GFS). Whereas the ECMWF, portrays a slightly weaker solution into South Texas where the front washes out and the brunt of the front is located to the east towards HGX's CWA. GEFS temperature anomalies maintains the colder solution in South Texas with the latest run. With the differences in the guidance remaining confidence unfortunately will remain low at this time, though we continue to monitoring the trends over the next couple days.

Otherwise, today we likely still see continued minor coastal flooding in the region through potentially Wednesday. P-ETTS maintains water levels around 2.0 ft MSL through Wednesday and potentially lingering further into the latter portions of the week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 122 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through this period. Brief MVFR conditions possible at LRD toward morning handled in a tempo group. Breezy afternoon winds expected. Will see an increase in overall cloud cover, mainly in mid-levels.

MARINE

Issued at 122 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Onshore gentle to moderate breeze (BF 3-4) levels continue through the middle of next week becoming Fresh at times (BF 5). Periods are expected continue subsiding below 9-10 second and should be well below by 12Z Sunday morning. Later in the week, flow is expected to become northeasterly once again and strengthen with the arrival of a potential front. Small Craft Advisory to Gale conditions will be possible though currently timing and southern extent of the front remain in question. Will need to continue monitor the trends over the next few forecast. Be sure to check back for future updates.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 122 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

In South Texas, above average temperatures and generally rain-free conditions can be expected to close out this weekend. Minimum RH values around 30-40% will steadily increase over the next few days due to deeper tropical moisture moving into the region. Low rain chances may lead to some showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms early next week and again mid- to late in the week as a strong cold front potentially approaches the region. Onshore flow will generally remain light for much of the week and elevated fire weather conditions are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 90 77 92 78 / 0 20 30 0 Victoria 93 73 95 75 / 0 10 50 0 Laredo 95 75 98 77 / 0 10 0 0 Alice 92 74 95 76 / 0 10 20 0 Rockport 88 79 90 80 / 0 30 40 0 Cotulla 96 74 97 77 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 90 75 93 77 / 0 10 20 0 Navy Corpus 87 80 89 82 / 0 30 30 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ245-342>347- 442-443-447.

High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ345-442- 443-447.

GM...None.