textproduct: Corpus Christi

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday night) Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Key Messages:

- Well-above temperatures Thursday afternoon, reaching into the 100s along the Rio Grande

- Breezy conditions along the coast, with gusts in the 30-40 mph range through Thursday night

With the 500 hPa trough over the Desert Southwest, this places much of Texas under southwest flow aloft, keeping our mid-to-upper levels dry. At the surface and 850 hPa, higher dewpoints continue to be advected into the Southern Plains. At 850 hPa, a low-level jet continues to enhance this moisture advection, as well as mixing down higher winds aloft. These are primarily mixing down east of a daily dry line that moves through the Brush Country, keeping temperatures toasty to the west of this dry line, and muggy and warm to the east. With the dry line only making it as far as the coastal zones, this will be the primary area of locally stronger winds Thursday and Friday morning. The LLJ tonight seems to shift the axis of 40 kt+ winds more towards SE Texas. The LLJ on Friday morning does seem to bring near 60kt winds aloft over South Texas. For this reason, the Small Craft Advisory will continue through at least early Friday morning, but will likely be extended into the weekend with the subsequent forecast package. Wind gusts observed across the coastal zones today have shown some sites reaching the 40 mph mark, but it has been too scattered to warrant a Wind Advisory. Forecast wind gusts, at this time, appear to be below criteria for any inland headlines, but will continue to monitor the CAMs tonight and discuss with the evening crew on whether one is warranted. Visibility-wise, the most likely locations for any drops below 6 miles will be in the coastal zones, but this will be short lived given the gustier winds Thursday morning.

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Key Messages:

- Well-above normal temperatures through Friday, with a cooldown to more seasonal temperatures through the weekend.

- Increased chances for accumulating rainfall along the immediate coast and marine zones this weekend.

Very minimal changes from the inherited Extended forecast package. Wet conditions return to the area by the end of the work week and early into the weekend as a mid to upper level low traverses from the Desert SW into the Southern Plains. Moisture will pool ahead of it with PWATs rising to around 1.6-1.7" Friday into Friday night. Rain and thunderstorm chances will start off at around 20-30% over NW portions of the CWA Friday night, before transition E during the day on Saturday as a cold front moves across. Highest rain/storm probabilities will shift into the marine zones by Saturday evening with up to a 60% chance, while remaining at less than a 20% along the immediate coast. The aforementioned front will lead to much drier conditions on its wake with minimum RH values falling into the teens over portions of the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains over the weekend into nearly next week. Rain chances will drop to near zero again late weekend as surface high pressure surges in. Winds will remain elevated and gusty at times which will increase our fire weather concerns as the ERC class also rises into the 50-70th percentile across portions of the area by the weekend. Very warm temperatures Friday with highs in the mid 80s to near triple digits will cool into the 60s and 70s Sunday into Monday. Overnight lows will bottom in the low 40s to low 50s Sunday and Monday nights.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Stratus has began spreading out from the eastern terminals this evening. This has led to MVFR ceilings along with some decreased visibilities. Elevated winds are expect to limit overall fog development though patchy fog will remain possible. Lower ceilings will likely reach COT and persist through daybreak along with the eastern terminals with periods of IFR possible. VFR conditions will return by midmorning and persist through the afternoon. Winds will remain elevated with gusts around 20-30 knots over the eastern portions of the region thanks to the 40+ knot LLJ overhead.

MARINE

Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

With a coastal trough remaining in the western Gulf and high pressure dominating the eastern Gulf, strong south-to-north pressure gradient can be expected. This translates to fresh to strong (BF 5/6) onshore flow through Saturday morning. Offshore waters can expect 9-11 ft waves, and 5-8 ft in the nearshore waters for the same time period. For this reason, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect through at least early Friday morning, but may be extended further into the weekend. Before a cold front moves through on Saturday, onshore flow weakens briefly to gentle (BF 4) winds, but as the winds switch to be more offshore by Saturday night, winds will increase to be fresh to strong once again. Rain chances will increase to around 30-60% Saturday night into Sunday, followed by dry conditions behind the front.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 231 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Dry line passages across the Brush Country will drop relative humidity values as low as 10-30% through Thursday. Weak 20-ft winds will keep the fire risk at bay. Rain chances will be low to medium (20-30%) Friday out west, before transitioning eastward on Saturday ahead of a cold front. This boundary will move across the area on Saturday with minimum RH values falling into the teens across portions of the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains through early next week. Winds will remain elevated due to a tight pressure gradient, and will become gusty at times. This, in combination with Energy Release Components (ERCs) in the 50th to 70th percentile class, could result in periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns mainly out west over the weekend into early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 95 73 93 73 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 87 72 89 73 / 0 0 0 10 Laredo 101 72 101 73 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 97 71 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 85 73 86 74 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 98 73 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 99 72 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 83 73 83 73 / 0 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275.