textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1245 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

- Medium to high chance for freezing temperatures Saturday night to Sunday morning (40-80%) across portions of South Texas

- Wind chill values 25-30 degrees inland and 30-40 degrees along the coast Sunday morning

- Red Flag Warning in effect for Saturday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1245 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Southerly flow will continue today ahead of our next cold front tonight. The cold front is expected to swing through the region between 7-11 PM ushering in significantly colder air with high pressure moving into the region Saturday. With high pressure in place and light winds expected Saturday night, radiational cooling is expected to occur with lows dropping into the upper 20s to upper 30s across South Texas. There's a medium to high (40-80%) chance for temperatures to drop below freezing Saturday night across the northern Coastal Plains from La Salle through Live Oak and Bee and up to the Victoria. Elsewhere, chances for freezing temperatures will be low (10-20%). Regardless of whether temperatures drop below freezing or not, it's going to feel cold. Wind chill values late Saturday night into Sunday morning are expected to dip into the 25- 30 degree range inland and 30-40 degree range along the coast. While rain chances are not high (10-20% along the immediate coast) with the aforementioned cold front, higher rain chances are expected to return mid-week next week with the arrival of our second cold front. While uncertainty remains in the forecast beyond Monday, the current forecast calls for medium (30-60%) chances for rain Tuesday through Wednesday night with storm total accumulations up to 2".

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout this TAF cycle. Winds will shift to the northeast between 04-06z with strong winds up to 25-30 knots in its wake. While confidence is low, low level wind shear will be possible at COT from 05-07z.

MARINE

Issued at 1245 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

A southerly fresh breeze (BF 5) is expected today ahead of our next frontal passage tonight. Winds in the wake of the front will shift to the northeast around midnight tonight and strengthen to a strong breeze to near gale (BF 6-7) by tomorrow morning, with occasional gusts to Gale not out of the question. These stronger winds will hang around through Saturday night before winds weaken back to a moderate breeze Sunday with southerly winds returning Sunday night. Low to medium (30-60%) rain chances are expected Friday night through Saturday night across the Gulf waters.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1245 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all of South Texas Saturday as critical fire weather are expected in the wake of our next front. Relative humidity will dip to as low as 12-25% with winds gusting to 25 mph. Critically low relative humidity values will hang around Sunday, however, winds will be light enough to negate critical fire weather conditions. Energy Release Component (ERC) values in the 75- 85th percentile Saturday will increase to the 80-85th percentile Sunday across all of South Texas. Therefore, although winds will be light Sunday, elevated fire weather conditions will still be possible due to the very low relative humidity and moderate to high ERC values.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 52 61 37 62 / 10 10 0 0 Victoria 46 59 30 62 / 10 0 0 0 Laredo 46 63 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 48 62 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 51 62 40 60 / 20 0 0 0 Cotulla 41 62 28 62 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 51 61 35 63 / 0 10 0 0 Navy Corpus 55 61 45 59 / 20 10 10 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CST Saturday for TXZ229>234- 239>247-342>347-442-443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Sunday for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.