textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 527 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

- Cold front passage Saturday will bring the potential for showers and storms, primarily for areas generally north and east of Interstate 37.

- Storms Prediction Center has the northern Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads in a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk of severe thunderstorms for Saturday.

- Drier air post front coupled with breezy winds and dry fuels could lead to increased fire weather concerns this weekend and early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

A few sprinkles have occurred across eastern portions of S TX this afternoon. Rain chances are expected to increase overnight as the mid/upper level ridge shifts east of the area and a weak embedded short wave tracks across S TX ahead of a long wave trough. Chances are low (10-20%) overnight across the Coastal Bend, Victoria Crossroads and northern Brush Country, with mainly light showers traveling north within a southerly 30-35 knot Low Level Jet. Moisture is forecast to increase Saturday with PWATs up to 1.3-1.5 inches across the eastern half of the area. The main long wave trough and associated cold front are progged to move east- southeast across TX. The surface boundary is expected to move into S TX Saturday afternoon and be south and east of the area by Saturday evening. Ahead and along the cold front, the airmass is forecast to destabilize with CAPE values increasing to around 1000J/kg. Models indicate that diffluence increases aloft as a 100kt upper jet slides across the region. Low level moisture convergence is also progged to strengthen ahead of the front. The combination of these features will be conducive for convection to develop. The limiting factor will be a cap around 750mb. The cap is weakest across the northern areas which will allow for more widespread convection, especially across the Victoria Crossroads. There is a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk of severe thunderstorms from Cotulla to Rockport northward. The highest chance will be north of our area, generally across Southeast and East TX.

Saturday will be warm and more humid. The cold front will bring little Cold Air Advection to S TX, but will be drier. Clearing skies and a dry airmass will allow temperatures to drop into the 50s Saturday night. A northwest flow on Sunday will keep max temps above normal. A warming trend is expected next week with highs reaching the low 90s across the Rio Grande Plains on Tuesday.

As for any fog tonight and Saturday morning, conditions will be limited due to the 30KT LLJ and increasing clouds. Sea fog may be possible due to an increase in dewpoints, but also has limiting factors. A few models show fog late Saturday night due to clearing skies and weakening surface winds, however the temp-dewpoint spread will likely be too big.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 527 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the next few hours before a mix of MVFR and IFR CIGs sets in between 02-04Z tonight, lasting through much of this cycle. Shortly before sunrise Saturday morning, a steady uptick in shower coverage ahead of the frontal passage will begin from west to east. Have continued the inclusion of PROB30 groups starting around 09-10Z Saturday for -SHRA. The best chance of convection will be across VCT towards the end of this TAF period, so included mention of -TSRA beginning at 22Z. VFR conditions should return by Saturday afternoon as the front begins to propagate across South Texas. Winds will be steady out of the south-southeast with winds generally between 15-20 knots and gusts between 25-30 knots at times. Winds will shift to the west then northwest behind the front Saturday evening.

MARINE

Issued at 128 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Winds will increase to moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) levels by this evening. A fresh to strong (BF 5-6) onshore wind can be expected Saturday afternoon and night ahead of a cold front. The increase of wind coupled with wave heights between 4-7 feet will likely lead to the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory. Behind the front, winds will shift to the northwest early Sunday and decrease to a moderate breeze (BF 4). Precipitation is also anticipated with this front, with medium to high (40-60%) chances over area waters through the day Saturday. Winds will return to an onshore direction with gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) conditions by the start of next week. Patchy to areas of fog can be expected through Saturday morning but will be more limited due to the increasing rain chances.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 128 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Minimum relative humidity values will remain above 30% through Saturday. Friday night and Saturday will bring our next chance for showers and thunderstorms across the eastern half of the area along and ahead of our next cold front. Behind this front, elevated to critical fire weather conditions could develop, as relative humidity values are forecast to drop well below 30% mainly across the Brush Country and western Coastal Plains for several days. These conditions combined with 20-foot winds of 10-20 mph, occasional higher gusts, and Energy Release Component values in the 70th-80th percentile may prompt the issuance of a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) or a Red Flag Warning (RFW) Sunday through possibly Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 65 80 57 82 / 20 30 20 0 Victoria 63 77 55 80 / 20 80 50 0 Laredo 68 88 59 85 / 10 10 0 0 Alice 64 86 56 84 / 20 30 20 0 Rockport 65 77 60 80 / 20 50 40 0 Cotulla 65 85 55 84 / 10 50 0 0 Kingsville 64 87 57 84 / 20 20 20 0 Navy Corpus 66 75 61 77 / 20 40 30 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.