textproduct: Corpus Christi

DISCUSSION

Issued at 619 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Not much has changed in this forecast than the morning package. We remain under onshore flow at the surface, which is not allowing the Brush Country to dip to far down in RH and thus keeping the fire risk elevated, but under critical conditions. Through Wednesday morning, it'll pretty much be a rinse and repeat forecast with upper 90 degree high temps returning Wednesday afternoon. A mid-level shortwave will then push through the Texas Panhandle, dropping a weak frontal boundary through central TX Wednesday night through Thursday. There is still low confidence as to how far south and showers and storms associated with this frontal system. The greatest chances for precipitation will remain in the northern Brush Country/Victoria Crossroads, but the latest NBM guidance might push a shower or two closer to the coastal zones during that time period (still amounting to under 0.5 inch accumulations for most locations).

This weekend's rain chances still look set to move into South Texas with a cold front. Rain chances will be greatest near the boundary, but as is with many frontal systems, will be were exactly the front will be on Saturday and if the front stalls as it approaches the coast. PWATs this weekend look to be around 1.75" at their highest before the front, which would place it above 3 standard deviations for climatological values for the first few days of April. To be determined and refined throughout the week will be the potential for severe weather with these storms (given that things start getting spicy in April in terms of finally be able to use the CAPE).

Lastly, the only other hazard at play will be minor coastal flooding. With the full moon occurring Wednesday and P-ETSS guidance at Aransas Pass showing water levels approaching the 1.5-2.0 ft above MSL. This in combination with increasing wave periods 6-8 ft this week will potentially lead to this hazard. The hard aspect of forecasting this will be that Port Aransas high tides Wed and Thu will occur overnight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 152 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Not much has changed in this forecast than the morning package. We remain under onshore flow at the surface, which is not allowing the Brush Country to dip to far down in RH and thus keeping the fire risk elevated, but under critical conditions. Through Wednesday morning, it'll pretty much be a rinse and repeat forecast with upper 90 degree high temps returning Wednesday afternoon. A mid-level shortwave will then push through the Texas Panhandle, dropping a weak frontal boundary through central TX Wednesday night through Thursday. There is still low confidence as to how far south and showers and storms associated with this frontal system. The greatest chances for precipitation will remain in the northern Brush Country/Victoria Crossroads, but the latest NBM guidance might push a shower or two closer to the coastal zones during that time period (still amounting to under 0.5 inch accumulations for most locations).

This weekend's rain chances still look set to move into South Texas with a cold front. Rain chances will be greatest near the boundary, but as is with many frontal systems, will be were exactly the front will be on Saturday and if the front stalls as it approaches the coast. PWATs this weekend look to be around 1.75" at their highest before the front, which would place it above 3 standard deviations for climatological values for the first few days of April. To be determined and refined throughout the week will be the potential for severe weather with these storms (given that things start getting spicy in April in terms of finally be able to use the CAPE).

Lastly, the only other hazard at play will be minor coastal flooding. With the full moon occurring Wednesday and P-ETSS guidance at Aransas Pass showing water levels approaching the 1.5-2.0 ft above MSL. This in combination with increasing wave periods 6-8 ft this week will potentially lead to this hazard. The hard aspect of forecasting this will be that Port Aransas high tides Wed and Thu will occur overnight.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

VFR conditions across S TX will become a mix of VFR/MVFR after 06Z tonight due to low stratus and light patchy fog. ALI and VCT have a low to medium (30-50%) chance of briefly dropping to IFR after 09Z. VFR conditions return by mid to late Tuesday morning. A 20-25 knot low level jet is expected to develop overnight which will keep surface winds elevated and visibilities at or above 4SM. The LLJ will mix to the surface mid morning Tuesday leading to another breezy to windy day with gusts 25 to 30 knots, especially closer to the coast.

MARINE

Issued at 152 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Expect a mostly moderate (BF 4) southeast wind through Wednesday morning with 3-4 ft seas. By Wednesday afternoon, onshore flow increases to moderate to fresh strength (BF 4-5) with seas increasing to 5-6 ft, likely leading to a Small Craft Advisory through Thursday night. Rain chances will remain on the low end (15- 25%) through midweek.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 152 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

The highest Energy Release Component(ERC)values remain across the Brush Country, remaining above the 70th percentile class. While RH values drop to 25% this afternoon, and 20 ft winds around 15 kts this afternoon, this will keep the fire risk elevated, but not quite a critical fire risk. Therefore the Fire Danger Statement for the Brush Country remains in effect. The fire risk remains elevated but afternoon RH values on Tuesday will drop to near 30% for most locations, supported by the continuous moisture inflow from the Gulf. Wednesday, min RH values drop again as low as 25% leading to the possibility of another Fire Danger Statement. Chances for rain return to the northern Brush Country (20-30% chances) with similar chances to receive a wetting rain.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 68 84 69 85 / 0 20 10 10 Victoria 63 85 67 86 / 0 20 0 10 Laredo 68 94 69 97 / 0 10 0 0 Alice 65 89 67 92 / 0 10 0 10 Rockport 70 81 71 81 / 0 20 10 20 Cotulla 65 93 67 96 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 65 88 68 89 / 0 20 0 10 Navy Corpus 71 79 71 79 / 0 20 10 20

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.