textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 119 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- Isolated seabreeze showers/storms each afternoon through the end of the week, then increasing Saturday through early next week.

- Moderate heat risk daily through the weekend.

- Moderate to High Rip Current Risk and minor coastal flooding possible this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 119 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Mid-level ridging will maintain warm conditions and generally limit widespread convective development across South Texas over the next couple of days, as recent guidance is trending towards a slightly later weakening of the ridge. As a result, rain chances are expected to remain relatively low today and during most of Saturday morning, with only isolated streamer showers and seabreeze-driven convection expected. Temperatures will continue to climb into the 90s inland with heat indices ranging from 100-110 degrees due to persistent Gulf moisture/elevated dewpoints.

By Saturday, deeper tropical moisture associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the far southern Bay of Campeche will begin spreading into the region. While unlikely at this time, NHC has designated a low (20%) chance of development with this tropical wave over the next 7 days. This will continue to be monitored over the next several days, especially as it may re- emerge over the northwestern Gulf on Tuesday/Wednesday while interacting with a frontal boundary (more on this below!). PWATs are forecast to increase to around 2.0-2.6 inches, supporting a gradual uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity. While the stronger ridge aloft may inhibit more widespread coverage initially, scattered showers and thunderstorms are still expected to develop by late Saturday morning, especially near the coast and across the southern and eastern portions of the CWA. Any storms that form will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall given the highly moist environment and efficient warm rain processes. Rainfall amounts through Sunday evening generally appear on the manageable side, although isolated totals of 1 to 2 inches could occur beneath the stronger cells.

Widespread rain chances become greater by late Sunday into early next week as a mid-to upper-level trough digs southward across the Plains. This trough will gradually weaken the aforementioned ridge while also driving a weak boundary southward toward the region. The combination of anomalously high moisture, increasing lift, and the potential frontal interaction with the tropical wave will support expanding coverage of showers and thunderstorms Sunday night through midweek next week, along with an increasing concern for localized flooding should heavier rainfall bands develop.

The question remains as to where the frontal boundary will eventually stall, as this will become the focus for convection and repeated rounds of heavy rainfall. Current rainfall projections for Sunday through midweek generally range from 1-3 inches, though locally higher amounts in excess of 4-5 inches will be possible where storms repeatedly train over the same locations. WPC continues to highlight portions of the area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall Sunday through Tuesday, and additional outlook expansions may be necessary if confidence in heavier rainfall placement increases. Temperatures may trend slightly cooler early next week as cloud cover and precipitation become more widespread.

As far as coastal hazards go, increasing long-period swells to around 7-8 seconds and seas to 5-7 feet combined with astronomically higher tides near the new moon phase on Sunday will lead to hazardous marine and beach conditions. This includes a heightened risk for rip currents and minor coastal flooding concerns this weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 119 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Spotty showers continue across inland terminals. This will continue through roughly 22Z. Overnight, MVFR CIGs return across inland locations. Shower/thunderstorm activity returns beyond 14Z with reductions back into MVFR territory through the end of the TAF cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 119 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) onshore flow will persist through the period. Seas of 3-4 feet are expected through tonight before increasing to 5-7 feet over the weekend in response to a long east-southeast fetch across the Gulf from a broad area of low pressure located over the Bay of Campeche. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed by Saturday night, particularly over the far offshore waters. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this weekend becoming scattered to numerous early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 79 89 80 90 / 30 30 40 50 Victoria 76 92 77 91 / 20 30 30 60 Laredo 76 94 76 94 / 10 20 10 40 Alice 76 90 77 91 / 20 50 30 60 Rockport 82 91 82 91 / 20 20 40 40 Cotulla 75 94 76 94 / 10 20 10 30 Kingsville 77 89 78 90 / 30 40 30 60 Navy Corpus 82 88 82 89 / 30 30 40 40

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.