textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 121 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

- Medium rain chances today areawide, with pockets of heavy rainfall and high rainfall accumulations.

- Heavy rain chances become more focused over the Victoria Crossroads early next week.

- Moderate risk of heat-related impacts through early next week, with peak heat indices generally 104-109 degrees.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Today will feature a fairly similar pattern to yesterday with a low amplitude mid-lvl easterly disturbance near the area, and abundant tropical moisture characterized by 95th percentile (2.2-2.3 inch) PWATs. Consequently expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to impact the area, likely starting this morning over the waters and Coastal Plains and gradually progressing inland through the afternoon. CAM PMMs show a general signal for swaths of 1-2 inch totals with a few localized bulls-eyes of 2-3 inches focused over the northern Coastal Plains. Once again, our soils should be able to handle these amounts, so any flooding concerns would be limited to localized poor drainage locations. Although some sub-severe water-loaded downbursts may occur, given the skinny CAPE profiles, and weak flow aloft, severe weather is not expected. One forecast wrinkle worth mentioning is a signal for some early evening convective development near the Rio Grande Plains in association with a convectively-enhanced disturbance progressing northward along the inverted trough axis to our west. Slightly drier low-lvl profiles may be a little more conducive to downbursts with this activity were it to develop. Given this potential, added Chc (generally 25-40%) PoPs for Webb county after 00Z.

Although we will see some modest drying on Sunday as the mid-lvl ridge over the Gulf temporarily kicks the inverted trough feature further west, PWATs will remain around 2 inches. Consequently expect isolated-scattered activity focused along the sea-breeze in the afternoon with the synoptic flow direction favoring the Victoria Crossroads. Drier air associated with a SAL plume will filter into the area from the southwest on Monday, resulting in a notable N-S gradient in both moisture and precip chances, which will range from only 10-20% over the southern Coastal Plains to 40-50% in the Victoria Crossroads. Tuesday into the mid-week period the focus shifts to where a broad mid-lvl weakness and its embedded low amplitude easterly disturbances set up. As mentioned in previous discussions this will closely track a 700mb boundary, and be the focus for repeated rounds of storms. The ensemble consensus would place the primary storm track just north of the area, with our rain chances limited to isolated sea breeze activity. However, given the complexities involved (i.e. convectively enhanced features), along with the potential for training storms and heavy rainfall will still need to monitor it for a couple more cycles.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Similar conditions to last night are expected again tonight, with VFR conditions prevailing. MVFR ceilings for LRD, COT, and maybe VCT will be possible early Saturday morning, so have included this mention in TEMPO groups. Showers and thunderstorms are again possible for Saturday, beginning in the morning for VCT then spreading to the west over the Coastal Plains through the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) southeasterly-southerly winds look to persist through early next week, with seas running 2 to 4 ft. There will be a medium (35-50 percent) chance of thunderstorms this morning through Sunday with periods of erratic winds and elevated seas likely in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Rain chances decrease into the 15-30 percent range Monday into Tuesday with highest chances over the northern waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 90 79 91 79 / 40 10 20 0 Victoria 92 77 94 77 / 60 10 50 10 Laredo 97 77 98 77 / 40 30 20 10 Alice 92 76 94 76 / 50 10 20 0 Rockport 91 82 91 82 / 50 20 40 10 Cotulla 94 76 96 76 / 50 20 20 10 Kingsville 91 77 92 77 / 40 10 20 0 Navy Corpus 89 82 89 82 / 30 10 20 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.