textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 525 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

- Dangerous swimming conditions, HIGH risk of rip currents through this afternoon.

- Marginal risk for severe storms and flash flooding tonight ahead of a cold front early Sunday morning, mainly over the Victoria Crossroads.

- Medium to high chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into early Sunday morning, then again Sunday night through Monday.

- Near freezing wind chills over our northern counties early Monday morning and Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1144 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

A strong cold front remains on track to sweep through South Texas late tonight into early Sunday morning between roughly midnight and 7AM. Increasing lift along and ahead of the boundary, supported by a strengthening LLJ and mid-level shortwave activity, will promote the development of showers and thunderstorms overnight. The greatest potential for strong to severe convection continues to focus over the Victoria Crossroads and northern Coastal Bend, where a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) persists.

The 18Z CRP sounding shows MUCAPE of ~1500 J/kg, effective bulk shear of ~45 knots, and mid-level lapse rates of ~7 degC/km, all supportive of updraft organization. With filtered daytime heating due to mostly cloudy to cloudy skies over a majority of the region, further destabilization will remain minimal. Hail and damaging winds remain the primary hazards with any stronger cores that can develop. However, the cold front will likely undercut convection pretty quickly. There also appears to be a low chance for isolated storms out ahead of the front. The large scale forcing will remain on the weaker side. However, if able to tap into the modest instability and sufficient shear, the threat for a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out (albeit the overall threat is very low). In addition, elevated rainfall rates along training convective segments may lead to localized flooding concerns, also mainly in the Crossroads region where a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for excessive rainfall remains in effect.

Behind the front, a surface low is expected to form over the Gulf and stall the boundary close to the coast. Persistent isentropic ascent north of this feature combined with mid-level PVA will maintain medium to high (50-75%) chance for showers and thunderstorms late Sunday night through the day on Monday. By Monday night into early Tuesday, high pressure surges in bringing with it drier air and reduced rain chances through midweek before our next frontal system arrives sometime Thursday. With models persistently indicating coastal troughing and increasing moisture (PWATs between 1.5-2.0 inches) ahead of this boundary, another round of precipitation appears in the cards late in the week.

As for temperatures this period, expect highs and lows to fall below average in the wake of Sunday's front. Highs on Monday will fall to the 50s with lows dipping into the upper 30s to mid-40s. Gradual warming is anticipated by midweek as onshore flow returns, allowing daytime highs to climb into the 60s to low 70s and lows into the upper 40s to low 60s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 525 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Not much change since the previous TAF forecast package as we are still anticipating the approach and ultimate passage of a strong cold front. Ahead of the front this evening, VFR conditions will dominate with earlier gusty winds gradually diminishing. Around the 08-10Z timeframe, conditions begin to deteriorate from north to south as the front propagates in. Winds quickly shift to become north-northeasterly and strengthen to sustained speeds of 15-20 knots with higher gusts building in through mid-morning. At the same time, periods of rain will become increasingly likely, with our eastern terminals (ALI/CRP/VCT) showing a window for embedded thunderstorms producing brief VSBY restrictions and lower CIGs. Periods of MVFR and localized IFR are possible, especially during the 08-14Z timeframe when the probabilities for storms is greatest. By late morning to early afternoon Sunday, low CIGs will linger behind the front. Most sites should return to mostly prevailing MVFR with improving VSBYs. Strong northerly winds will persist through the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1144 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Fresh to strong (BF 5-6) south-southeasterly winds continue this afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching frontal boundary before turning to the north-northeast in the wake of the front on Sunday. Small Craft Advisory conditions continue through the day Sunday. Winds fall to moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) early next week with onshore flow returning Wednesday. Rain chance increase to a medium to high (50-75%) chance tonight through Monday night. By Monday night into early Tuesday, high pressure surges in bringing with it drier air and reduced rain chances through midweek. Medium to high chances of showers and thunderstorms return mid-to-late next week in association with our next frontal system.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1144 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Minimum relative humidity will remain above 40% through this next week along with below average temperatures Sunday through Tuesday following a strong cold front early Sunday morning. Medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast tonight through Monday in association with the frontal passage as well as the formation and subsequent stalling of a surface low of the coast. Additionally, north-northeasterly winds will increase to 15-25 mph behind the front. A brief lull in rain chances is expected after a reinforcing surge of high pressure pushes through late Monday night into Tuesday, but low to medium rain chances return Wednesday through Friday as additional disturbances arrive. There are no elevated fire weather concerns at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 53 62 45 56 / 50 30 60 60 Victoria 46 54 42 53 / 80 30 50 80 Laredo 54 62 46 60 / 10 20 50 20 Alice 51 60 41 55 / 50 30 60 50 Rockport 54 63 46 59 / 60 40 60 70 Cotulla 51 56 42 54 / 20 10 40 20 Kingsville 53 63 43 56 / 50 30 60 40 Navy Corpus 58 67 50 60 / 60 40 70 60

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ345-442- 443-447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ231-232-236- 237-250-255-270-275.