textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1252 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

- Dense Fog Advisory over the Coastal Plains this morning

- Extreme Cold Watch Saturday Evening through Monday morning

- Strong Arctic cold front with the potential for freezing rain, especially Saturday night through Sunday morning

- Freezing temperatures expected along with wind chills in the single digits to the 20s Sunday morning and again Monday morning

- Small Craft Advisory conditions Saturday through Monday. Near gale conditions possible late Saturday night into Sunday morning

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1252 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

A weak north-south oriented front early this morning bisects South Texas, with dewpoints in the 40s over the western Brush Country and in the low 60s over the Coastal Bend. This boundary is allowing for moisture to pool, low levels to saturate, favoring very low clouds and fog to develop over the Coastal Plains. We're already seeing pockets of dense fog over the Coastal Plains. We'll likely continue to see more dense fog through the early morning hours so a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued.

The stalled boundary will retreat northward today, onshore flow returns, warming temperatures into the 70s for this afternoon's highs and into the lower 80s Friday. No rain chances through tonight but another medium chance for fog to develop inland. PWATs climb to above normal values (>75th percentile) Friday, allowing for a low (20-40%) chance of showers over the Coastal Plains.

Main story:

Latest model guidance has trended towards a slower progression with the arctic front, much slower in comparison to 24 hours ago forecast. Temperatures will be able to warm steadily into midday Saturday with a medium to high chance for showers before the frontal passage moves through later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. This shortens the time for CAA to influence the region and bring temperatures to freezing while coinciding with moisture (precipitation chance). Therefore, freezing rain/drizzle chances are even lower this forecast (5-15%) and limited to a shorter time window Sunday morning. The later arrival of the front may prohibit much of the southern CWA (Nueces to Webb south) to reach freezing early Sunday morning, there is a medium (50%) chance for temperatures to remain above freezing. We also have to be mindful that there has to be a buffer for surface temperatures to reach freezing when air temperatures reach freezing, it won't be immediate. All in all to say, the front has trended later, frozen precip chances has lowered, but we're still over 3 days out and without short-term guidance to aid in confidence, the forecast will continue to change. For what it's worth, the HRRR has the front even further north over the Texas Panhandle than the NAM at 0Z Saturday.

Although there is a 12 degree spread between the 25-75th percentile for Sunday morning lows, models are in good agreement with freezing conditions early Monday morning and Tuesday morning with a spread of about 7 degrees at or below freezing. Wind chill values will be extremely cold, ranging between 7-20 degrees, hence the Extreme Cold Watch that will need to be upgraded into either a Warning or Cold Weather Advisory as we get closer. Near normal temperatures return the middle of next week with quasi-zonal flow aloft, minimal rain chances, highs climbing back into the 60s and lows generally in the 40s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1252 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Increasing low-level moisture and light winds will promote the development of low CIGs and areas of reduced VSBY, particularly across the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. MVFR conditions are expected to become more widespread across our eastern sites with periods of IFR and localized LIFR possible due to low CIGs and patchy fog. The greatest restriction risk continues to be roughly from 08-12Z. Conditons should gradually improve after mid-morning as boundary-layer mixing increases, with CIGs lifting and VSBYs returning to VFR by late morning/early afternoon. Winds will remain light overall, transitioning to an east-southeasterly component by afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1252 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Light variable winds this morning may allow for patchy to areas of fog inland to overrun into the bays. Light to gentle onshore flow tonight will increase Friday ahead of a strong Arctic cold front. Winds are expected to shift to a northerly direction and increase to a strong to near gale (BF 6-7) flow Saturday afternoon into evening behind the cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected through the weekend into early next week. A Gale Watch may be necessary. Low rain chances linger today, lull tonight, then increase to a moderate to high chance over the weekend as the arctic front pushes through the region. Temperatures will be around freezing along the coast with wind chill values feeling well below freezing during late Saturday night through Monday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1252 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Moisture will continue to increase across South Texas. Afternoon RH values through the remainder of the week are expected to range between 45 to 80% from the west to the coast, with light to moderate winds. ERC values around the 25-50th percentile, resulting in low fire danger. A strong arctic cold front is expected this weekend, with passage likely Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. RH values may dip below 30% Monday afternoon but winds remain below criteria. Elevated fire weather conditions are not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 76 63 77 59 / 0 0 20 60 Victoria 77 58 75 52 / 0 0 40 80 Laredo 77 60 81 59 / 0 0 10 30 Alice 79 60 80 59 / 0 0 20 50 Rockport 72 60 74 57 / 0 0 30 60 Cotulla 77 58 77 54 / 0 0 10 60 Kingsville 78 60 79 61 / 0 0 10 40 Navy Corpus 72 64 73 62 / 0 0 20 60

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning for TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447.

Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ231>234- 241>247-342>344-346-347.

GM...None.