textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1205 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

- A dry cold front late tonight/early Saturday, reinforcing cooler and drier conditions

- Moderate to high chance (40-70%) for freezing temperatures from Webb to Victoria counties early Sunday morning

- Wind chill values 25-30 degrees inland and 30-35 degrees along the coast Sunday morning

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected this weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1205 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Southerly flow ahead of our next cold front tonight will allow above- normal temperatures today in the mid to upper 70s. FROPA is expected 03-06Z Saturday, ushering in significantly colder air and strong high pressure.

A brief cool-down will follow frontal passage, with highs Saturday in the low to mid 60s. With clear skies, light winds, and strong radiational cooling Saturday night, lows will fall into the low to upper 30s, with medium to high confidence. There's a (40-70%) for sub-freezing temperatures across the northern tier counties of South Texas. Elsewhere, freezing probabilities remain low (<20%). Regardless, wind chills late Saturday night into Sunday morning are expected to dip into the 25-30 degree range across isolated northern locations and into the low to mid 30s elsewhere. Afternoon temperatures Sunday (low to mid 60s), will be a few degrees warmer than Saturday, and a bit warmer Monday (~low 70s).

Rain chances with this front remain low (10-20% along the immediate coast), with better rain chances returning mid-week as a second cold front approaches.

Beyond Monday forecast confidence decreases. A stalled front over the region mid-week, combined with increasing Pacific moisture and PWAT's likely to exceed the 99th percentile, supports shower chances mid-week. Current guidance supports a medium (30-50%) rain chances Tuesday through early Thursday, with storm-total rainfall up to 2-3" possible. Temperatures will be slightly cooler Tuesday (65-70), then warmer each day of the second half of next week with low 80s returning to the forecast by next Friday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

VFR conditions will continue through the end of the TAF period. Have maintained the mention of LLWS for COT from 09Z-15Z based on the Aviation Weather Center AIRMET close to the area. While this may not materialize for COT, felt it prudent to continue this as there is a small possibility. Southerly winds will turn to the north around 00Z Saturday as a cold front approaches South Texas.

MARINE

Issued at 1205 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) southwesterly breeze today will back northeasterly and strengthen to strong to near gale force (BF 6-7) overnight tonight as a cold front moves offshore. Small Craft Advisory conditions with occasional gusts to near Gale force, are expected early Saturday through Sunday afternoon. Winds will gradually diminish Saturday, becoming gentle (BF 3) and shifting southerly by late Sunday. Another cold front approaching Tuesday morning will induce a fresh easterly breeze (BF 5), though this front is expected to stall inland. Mostly dry conditions are anticipated, except tonight through Saturday, when low to medium (25- 50%) rain chances will persist over the Gulf waters.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

A cold front is expected to move across South Texas tonight, reinforcing a drier air mass. Minimum RH values today will range from 20-30% inland and 40-70% near the coast. Despite elevated ERC values near the 70th percentile and Max RFTI values around 2 across our four western counties, light 20-ft winds near or below 10 mph will limit fire weather concerns this afternoon. As a result, have opted not to issue a Fire Danger Statement at this time. Conditions will continue to be monitored, and an RFD may be issued at a later time if needed.

Looking ahead to Saturday, lower RH values (15-30% inland) combined with 20-ft winds of 10-15 mph with higher gusts and increasing ERC/RFTI values may support elevated to critical fire weather conditions, potentially necessitating an RFD or a Red Flag Warning for Saturday afternoon/evening. This will be reassessed with subsequent forecast packages.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 77 52 61 38 / 0 10 10 20 Victoria 76 46 59 30 / 0 0 10 10 Laredo 78 47 62 35 / 0 0 0 10 Alice 79 49 62 33 / 0 0 10 20 Rockport 73 50 62 41 / 0 10 10 20 Cotulla 76 43 61 30 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 79 51 62 35 / 0 0 10 20 Navy Corpus 73 55 61 46 / 0 20 20 20

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.