textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 526 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

- 20-40% chance of showers/storms this afternoon/evening

- Daily low-end seabreeze showers through the upcoming week

- Heat-related illness still the main concern in the absence of rain

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

The upper-level high pressure over the Southwest US continues to allow allow disturbances to move over the eastern periphery which will allow for another chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. The Victoria Crossroads will see the seabreeze and afternoon convection starting around noon with the overall progression of the intense storms propagating to the southwest as generally hinted by the 00Z HRRR run. The greatest threat again will be gusty winds and small hail. After sunset, the threat of showers/thunderstorms moves into the Brush Country. PWATs will generally range from 1.9-2.1" Friday allowing for any thunderstorm to produce a quick 0.5-1 inch rainfall amount with up to 2 inch in the strongest storms. Confidence is moderate with tomorrow's rain chances and even less so for the where the highest rainfalls will be, so it won't be a complete washout, but a nice quick relief of summer-like temperatures.

While the upper-level high will slide to the southeastern US (more so as the western periphery of the Bermuda High, an inverted trough will generally stretch from the western Gulf toward the upper Texas Coast/Louisiana area. This will generally shift the focus of more scattered seabreeze activity in those areas, but the seabreeze storms along the Middle Texas Coast will be more apparent, especially closer the Matagorda Bay area and locations to the north.

What won't change will be the HeatRisk, reaching as high as major/extreme risks (level 3 and 4 out of 4). In the absence of rainfall, this will be the more "apparent" risk to South Texans.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 526 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

A few isolated showers still linger across South Texas this morning, but these are not expected to continue for much longer. Another round of showers/storms will be possible this afternoon for VCT or COT, so have included PROB30 groups. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected, with the potential for some MVFR ceilings and/or visibility in and around any showers or thunderstorms.

MARINE

Issued at 206 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Light to gentle onshore breezes through the week will continue with afternoons reaching more moderate strength for inland bays and waterways. Seas will generally be 1-2 ft through Monday. 20-40% rain chances today will become less than 20% daily chances through the upcoming week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 206 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Minimum relative humidity values will drop to 25-30% each afternoon west of Hwy 281 each afternoon. Due to the hot and dry conditions over the last month, fuels have rapidly cured with Energy Release Component values in the 70th-89th percentile. Winds will limit the overall fire risk, but it will generally remain elevated each afternoon. Chances for showers/thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will bring a low-end chance for a wetting rain. Seabreeze activity will confine rain chances to the coastal plains through the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 96 78 95 77 / 10 10 0 0 Victoria 100 74 99 74 / 40 20 10 0 Laredo 104 78 103 77 / 10 40 0 10 Alice 102 74 100 74 / 20 10 0 0 Rockport 93 80 93 81 / 20 10 10 0 Cotulla 102 77 102 76 / 40 30 0 0 Kingsville 99 76 98 75 / 10 10 0 0 Navy Corpus 90 81 90 81 / 10 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.