textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 511 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

- Areas of fog and sea fog, possibly locally dense with visibilities less than 1/2 of a mile.

- Low chance of showers Tuesday night into Wednesday across the Victoria Crossroads, then a low to medium chance Friday night and Saturday.

- Weak cold front Wednesday morning and again Saturday?

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1148 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

This work week forecast looks to remain warm with temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal through this weekend. As for rain chances and frontal boundaries, models are in better agreement with an upper level short wave tracking across TX Tuesday through Wednesday. The short wave is progged to weaken and become flatter as it tracks eastward. This causes a weak cold front associated with the upper feature, to stall, but the models differ on where it stalls. It may stall across the north and northwest CWA which will provide low moisture convergence. Moisture will be in place with PWATs 1.3-1.4 which approaches 2 Standard Deviations above normal for this time of year. However, not much in the way of low level forcing. The better lifting dynamics will be in the mid/upper levels with the Left Front Quadrant of the upper level jet, diffluence aloft, and Positive Vorticity Advection. But it's drier aloft. All of this to say there is a low (10-20%) chance of showers from Cotulla to Victoria Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Higher rain chances will remain north of the area.

Models indicate another cold front moving all the way through S TX Saturday or Saturday night, but not much Cold Air Advection with highs only 3-5 degrees cooler. Saturday night will be cooler in the 50s, but this is due to a drier airmass and clear skies. Rain chances look better ahead of this front. There is a low to medium (20-45%) chance Friday night into Saturday, mainly across the northern Brush Country (~20%) to the Victoria Crossroads (45%). There remains some uncertainty with the first front and a lot of uncertainty with the weekend front given that it's still 6 days out.

The probability for fog with visibilities <1SM is 50% from Alice to 65% around Victoria Tuesday morning with lower chances farther west and east. Whether it drops to <1/2SM is less certain, but still possible for portions of the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. Increasing cloud cover will be the limiting factor for radiational cooling and am expecting the fog to be generally patchy. The potential for fog and dense fog will continue each night and morning through the week.

As for sea fog, the sea surface temperatures for the bays and nearshore waters have increased a couple of degrees and are now in the low 60s. Dewpoints are generally 60-65, thus not as conducive for advection/sea fog to develop tonight/Tuesday morning. The chance of sea fog increases Wednesday through Saturday as dewpoints increase to mid to upper 60s. Drier conditions are expected behind a cold front Saturday into Saturday night. Will continue to monitor trends for any updates.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 511 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Tonight expecting similar conditions to last night. LIFR VSBYs for ALI/VCT and MVFR CIGs at ALI and LIFR CIGs at VCT around 10-14Z. MVFR CIGs at COT (12-16Z). VFR conditions expected to return by late morning. Winds tomorrow afternoon out of the south/southeast gusting up to around 30 KT across eastern terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 1148 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

A south to southeast gentle to moderate breeze (BF 3-4) can be expected through Friday with a brief period of Fresh (BF 5) winds across the offshore waters tonight through Tuesday morning. Advisory conditions are possible Friday night ahead of a cold front. Patchy light sea fog will be possible tonight through Tuesday morning. The threat for dense marine sea fog will increase late Tuesday night and will continue through the overnight and morning hours through Saturday morning. This is mainly for the bays and nearshore waters from Port Aransas northward. There is a low (15-20%) chance of showers Tuesday through Wednesday. A low to medium chance of showers can be expected Friday night and Saturday ahead of our next cold front.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1148 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Minimum relative humidity values (RH) will remain elevated with 30% or higher across the west to 45% and higher across the east through the week. As we head into next weekend, elevated fire weather could return as RH values are forecast to drop below 30% with moderate to strong winds and moderate to high Energy Release Component values. However, with this cold front still being 6 days out, much can change from now to then. Until then, elevated fire weather conditions are not expected.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 60 78 61 79 / 0 0 10 10 Victoria 58 78 58 80 / 0 0 20 20 Laredo 60 82 61 84 / 0 0 10 0 Alice 57 81 59 82 / 0 0 10 10 Rockport 60 74 61 75 / 0 0 10 10 Cotulla 57 80 58 81 / 0 10 20 10 Kingsville 57 81 60 82 / 0 0 0 10 Navy Corpus 63 73 63 74 / 0 0 10 20

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.