textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1214 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

- Extreme Cold Watch remains in effect Saturday night through Monday morning, wind chills 5-20 degrees, freezes through Tuesday morning

- Strong Arctic front sped up slightly

- Low chance for a freezing rain/drizzle mix early Sunday morning, best chances inland over the Victoria Crossroads

- Be alert for black ice inland early Sunday morning from leftover wet roads during the day Saturday!

- Small Craft Advisory conditions Saturday afternoon through Monday. Near gale conditions possible late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1214 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Latest guidance, most notably by the HRRR, has flipped to speeding the Arctic front up a tad and bringing colder temperatures earlier than last forecast. Even looking well upstream in hourly runs, it's trending faster. Now that we are beginning to get CAM solutions, I'm putting more weight towards their solutions and the fact that cold air tends to be underestimated in recent cold fronts here in South Texas. Therefore, temperatures were cooled down a tad with a slight uptick in freezing rain chances and coverage early Sunday morning, including areas as far west into McMullen and south into San Patricio counties. Winter storm products may be needed as early as today for portions of South Texas, as well as an upgrade to our current Extreme Cold Watch. We will have a solid idea and increased confidence later today as all model guidance will be available and at our disposal!

Medium to high rain chances with lower thunderstorm chances Friday night through Saturday, as we'll be located downstream of the mid-level trough responsible for bringing above-normal Pacific moisture. According to the NAM/GFS, the trough/vorticity axis has slowed to continue over South Texas into Sunday morning, allowing for precipitation chances to hang on that may coincide with freezing temperatures. Ice accumulation may now exceed 0.10" in the Goliad to Victoria area, but still many factors to consider. It'll be important to focus on three things: FROPA, moisture, and mid- level PVA. We also need to be mindful that the high chance of showers on Saturday will create wet road conditions, if roads remain wet during the overnight period into early Sunday morning, black ice may form! Especially on bridges and overpasses.

Following Sunday morning, conditions will remain very cold with multiple freezing nights Sunday night and Monday night. Early Monday morning lows may drop into the mid-teens over inland Victoria Crossroads and low-mid 20s elsewhere. The extremely cold wind chills will also accompany at this time, dropping as low as 3 above zero over the Victoria area, and the teens along the coast and western Brush Country.

High temperatures are expected to extend back into the 50s-60s the middle of next week but a mid-level shortwave may shoot another cold front across South Texas, leading to another potential freeze night Wednesday night. Moisture struggles to recover during this time so no precipitation chances are expected at this time.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Widespread low CIGs and reduced VSBYs are expected across South Texas through the early morning hours as elevated low-level moisture remains in place. IFR to LIFR conditions will be likely, with areas of dense fog and low stratus. CIGs improve to IFR/MVFR through the morning Friday, stay at MVFR through the afternoon over the Coastal Plains, but improve to VFR out west. East-southeasterly winds strengthen midday tomorrow, becoming sustained 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots. There is a low chance for showers over the northernmost sites (COT/VCT) overnight Friday/early morning Saturday, but probabilities remain on the lower side towards the end of this TAF period. Confidence increases past 06Z Saturday for all sites, so will need to include mention of precipitation in the next TAF cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1214 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Patchy to areas of fog can be expected early this morning, mainly across the bays and intracoastal waters. Gentle to moderate onshore flow today will strengthen to moderate persistent levels tonight through Saturday morning ahead of a strong Arctic cold front. Winds are expected to shift to a northerly direction and increase to a strong to near Gale (BF 6-7) flow Saturday evening behind the cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected through the weekend into early next week. Gust to gale will be possible at times. Low rain chances linger today, then increase to a moderate to high chance over the weekend as the arctic front pushes through the region. Temperatures will be around freezing along the coast with wind chill values feeling well below freezing during late Saturday night through Monday morning. Gentle to moderate onshore flow returns the middle of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1214 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Moisture will continue to increase across South Texas heading into Saturday ahead of an arctic front. Afternoon RH values through the middle of next week will likely remain greater than 30%, with the exception on Monday falling to 25% but winds light during the day to limit any fire danger. There's a medium to high chance for showers and low chance for thunderstorms Friday night through Saturday. A strong arctic cold front is expected to pass through during the day Saturday, dropping temperatures quickly. There is a low chance for freezing rain/drizzle early Sunday morning over the Victoria Crossroads and inland Coastal Plains. Freezing conditions are expected nightly Saturday night through Monday night, with wind chill values dropping into the single digits Monday morning. Elevated fire weather conditions are not anticipated.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 77 60 71 32 / 10 50 60 80 Victoria 76 51 59 25 / 30 80 90 90 Laredo 81 58 68 35 / 10 30 40 50 Alice 80 59 69 32 / 10 40 60 70 Rockport 74 58 67 30 / 20 70 70 90 Cotulla 77 53 56 31 / 20 60 70 70 Kingsville 79 60 72 32 / 10 30 50 70 Navy Corpus 73 62 70 34 / 10 50 70 90

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning for TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447.

GM...None.