textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 559 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

- A cold front Friday will bring cooler and drier conditions to South Texas this weekend.

- Gale Watch is in effect Friday Afternoon through Saturday Afternoon.

- A Wind Advisory will likely be needed for the coastal areas, possibly farther inland, for Friday-Saturday.

- Very low rain chances across South Texas today with a slight increase Friday associated with the cold front.

- Moderate to High Rip Current Risk possible Friday through the weekend.

- Minor coastal flooding is expected Friday night into Saturday during time of high tide. Coastal flooding could continue into Sunday.

- Elevated to critical fire weather concerns possible briefly behind the cold front Friday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 101 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Another unseasonably hot day today with most locations remaining rain free due to ridging aloft. Although, a rogue shower or two can't be ruled out.

The main weather event will be a strong cold front moving through S TX on Friday, finally bringing some relief from the heat. The cooler and drier conditions will be more noticeable Friday night. A pleasant weekend is in store for S TX with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s to low 60s. Temperatures begin to warm back up early next week.

Timing of the cold front is still somewhat uncertain. Models indicate a wind shift late Thursday night with the main blast pushing through the area Friday morning. Friday's max temperature may occur Friday morning. Most of S TX will have a 10-25% chance of showers, but there is a higher chance up to 50% along the Rio Grande. The highest chance will be over the gulf waters where the deepest moisture will reside. At this time, it looks like mainly showers with a few thunderstorms possible.

Friday is expected to be windy as high pressure builds across S TX behind the cold front. A Wind Advisory may be needed, at least closer to the coast. The strongest winds will be across the bays and coastal waters with gale conditions expected Friday afternoon through early Saturday afternoon. Winds begin to relax Saturday afternoon and evening.

Another concern will be coastal flooding. The strong north to northeast winds across the gulf waters in the wake of the cold front will likely lead to minor coastal flooding. Seas are forecast to build to 8-13 feet, possibly up to 14 feet. Swell periods are forecast to increase to 8-9 seconds. The combination will be conducive for pushing water up to the dunes during times of high tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory will likely be needed by Friday night through Saturday, and maybe into Sunday. However, if the winds and seas are slightly higher than expected, a Coastal Flood Warning may be warranted with water up to 3 feet above MSL during high tide. At this time confidence is very low that we will see tides that high.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 559 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

MVFR CIGS remain in place west, with more scattered conditions east. ALI still has potential for MVFR for the next couple of hours. VFR conditions are then expected through the remainder of the period with moderate winds. Late in the period winds will weaken and become variable ahead of an approaching front. The front may reach COT before the end of this period, but the strongest winds come after the end of the period.

MARINE

Issued at 101 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

A moderate (BF 4) southeast flow is expected today along with relatively low rain chances. A cold front is forecast to move across the coastal waters Friday, shifting winds to the north-northeast and increasing to near gale (BF 7) with frequent gusts to gale (BF 8) by late Friday afternoon and continuing through early Saturday afternoon. A Gale Watch is in effect Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. Winds will relax from nearshore to offshore through Saturday afternoon, becoming a moderate northeast breeze by Sunday. Rain chances increase 30-70% ahead of the cold front then diminish in the wake of the front.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 101 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

No significant fire weather concerns are anticipated today. However, a strong cold front Friday morning will bring a strong north to northeast wind and drier conditions to South Texas through Friday afternoon. There may be a brief window Friday afternoon when RH values drop to critical levels while winds are still strong, leading to elevated or critical fire weather conditions, which may warrant a Fire Danger Statement or Red Flag Warning, but confidence is low that this will occur. RH values begin to increase early Friday evening decreasing the threat. Drier and cooler conditions are expected this weekend along with winds becoming light. Therefore, elevated fire weather concerns are not anticipated this weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 90 72 82 58 / 10 10 20 0 Victoria 92 68 80 54 / 10 10 20 0 Laredo 95 71 82 58 / 0 0 40 0 Alice 92 70 82 56 / 0 10 20 0 Rockport 89 73 84 59 / 20 10 10 0 Cotulla 95 69 79 55 / 0 30 20 0 Kingsville 90 70 83 57 / 10 10 20 0 Navy Corpus 87 76 82 61 / 10 10 20 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.