textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 516 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026 - Elevated Fire Weather conditions today and Saturday. particularly over the Brush Country.

- Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions continue through at least the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1209 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

A hot (particularly for January) day is currently underway over South Texas with temperatures (at noon) already topping 80 everywhere apart from the immediate coast. This anomalous warmth is a result of both 850mb temperatures near the 95th percentile (~17C) and efficient mixing via warm W-SW flow. High temperatures will top out in the mid to upper 80s this afternoon which will threaten daily records in some locations. In fact temperatures are so warm we may even sea a rare January sea breeze push this afternoon, which will coincide with a dryline progressing from the opposite direction (west to east) resulting in a noticeable dewpoint/RH gradient near the coast. The eastward extent of the dry line push will impact whether we have any overland fog risk tonight into Saturday morning. A further east push would likely keep low-lvl moisture and thus the fog threat focused over the waters, while a weaker push would result in fog potential for primarily Kleberg/Nueces counties early Saturday morning.

A weak cold front will push through the area Saturday morning, although high temperatures will likely only be slightly cooler than today as the airmass behind the front is only 2-3C cooler than the prefrontal airmass and mixing should remain efficient under mostly sunny skies. The postfrontal high will gradually shift eastward Sunday through early next week resulting in easterly winds on Sunday shifting back to the south-southeast by Monday. This warm S-SErly flow will prevail through at least the middle of next week, with dry conditions also prevailing as mid-lvl ridging keeps the storm track displaced north of the area. High temperatures in the mid 70s on Monday will increase back to the low to mid 80s (roughly 15-20 degrees above normal) by mid-week with a similar warming trend expected for overnight lows.

Forecast uncertainty increases late next week as the western US troughing amplifies and shifts eastward. This could usher in a period of more active weather (at least in terms of frontal passages) weather late next week into next weekend but as usual at these time horizons confidence is low.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 516 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across S TX through the TAF period, except for a low chance of MVFR VSBYs for ALI and CRP Saturday morning. The sea breeze can be seen via radar, pushing inland which will increase the dewpoints for these two TAF sites. Thus, have included TEMPO for 4-5SM BR between 11-14Z. A cold front will push through S TX Saturday morning, reaching ALI and CRP around 14Z and will bring drier air into the area. Southwesterly winds will become more south behind the sea breeze this evening across the Coastal Bend. Light and variable winds are expected overnight ahead of the cold front, then shifting to the northwest, then north and increasing to 10-15 knots through Saturday afternoon, A few gusts to around 20 knots can be expected for ALI and CRP.

MARINE

Issued at 1209 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Moderate to fresh S-SWrly flow will prevail through Saturday morning ahead of a cold front. The strongest winds are expected over the offshore Gulf waters and a small craft advisory is in effect for that area tonight through early Saturday morning. Winds will then shift to northerly on Saturday behind the front, before veering more easterly on Sunday. A return to gentle to moderate S-SErly winds is then anticipated for early next week. There is a low to medium (30%) chance of sea fog development over the southern waters early Saturday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1209 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

A dry line followed by a cold front will drop RH values below 30% across inland portions of the Coastal Plains and Brush Country Friday and Saturday with MinRHs bottoming out around 20% Saturday afternoon over the Brush Country. Relatively light winds, and moderate ERCs (generally 50-75th percentile) we cap the Fire Weather conditions at Elevated. RHs will increase on Sunday and remain above 30% for the first half of the upcoming workweek.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 58 83 54 73 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 54 81 46 73 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 56 85 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 56 84 48 75 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 61 78 55 70 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 54 84 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 56 85 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 62 78 60 70 / 0 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Saturday for GMZ270-275.