textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 121 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

- Moderate risk of heat-related impacts through this week, afternoon heat indices of 100-108

- Low rain chances return Thursday, mainly along seabreeze over the Coastal Plains

- Saharan dust may cause hazy conditions at times today and Monday

- Hazardous marine conditions through Monday afternoon, with winds at least gusting frequently to 20 knots or greater

DISCUSSION

Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

South Texas' weather will remain controlled under the southwestern edge of a mid-level ridge centered over the east-central CONUS through the work week. Rain-free conditions with max temperatures in the 90s along with heat indices of 100-108 are expected through Wednesday. Breezy conditions will also be in place this afternoon and Monday especially, with south to southeasterly winds sustained 20-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph. The ridge begins to break apart and weaken latter half of the week, allowing for shortwaves to ride the southern edge and increase moisture across the area to above normal with PWATs between 1.75-2.00". This increase in moisture and lesser subsidence will allow for low shower and thunderstorm chances (10- 20%) to return along the seabreeze over the Coastal Plains Thursday and Friday.

Model guidance is in good agreement Saturday with a mid to upper level trough digging from Canada into the Central Plains. But afterwards into early next week, there are discrepancies with the progression of the synoptic flow east and south. The deterministic run of ECMWF shows cut-off mid-level lows developing and leading to increased rain chances, whereas the GFS keeps the main trough intact and lower rain chances. However, looking at cluster analysis, cluster 1 and 2 which contains majority of the GEFS (80%) and ENS (56%) guidance favors more of a ridge over the northern Central Plains to Midwest, whereas the more troughing solutions mainly resides with the GEPS. Right now, it's not looking promising we'll get favorable wet conditions but it's still a week or longer out.

Dust aerosol optical thickness forecast from NASA/GMAO shows noticeably higher dust concentration moving over South Texas today through Monday. This may cause hazy conditions occasionally, reduce air quality, and heighten allergies and respiratory issues.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Breezy south to southeasterly winds this afternoon, strengthening to a sustained 15-20 knots and gusts up around 30 knots. VFR conditions prevail otherwise across South Texas with ceilings lifting just above 3000 feet, with exceptions hugging the coast and impacting CRP. Winds will remain elevated, at least 10 knots or greater through the overnight hours, greatly reducing any fog potential. The low-level jet (LLJ) strengthens to 35-45 knots tonight, greatest over the Brush Country. These strong winds aloft will produce enough lift to contribute MVFR ceilings for parts of the area, especially between 09-13Z. VFR conditions prevail by 15-16Z with winds ramping back up.

MARINE

Issued at 121 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Currently, a strong (BF 6) south to southeasterly breeze over the bays and nearshore waters south of Port Aransas, coexists with a fresh (BF 5) breeze over the rest of the waters. Therefore a Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Monday morning for the bays and nearshore, with the offshore waters joining in starting this evening as winds ramp up slightly stronger. Waters and bays south of Port Aransas will likely experience Advisory level winds through Monday afternoon. A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) southeasterly breeze will then persist Tuesday into the upcoming weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 80 91 78 91 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 79 94 76 93 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 78 101 76 99 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 77 96 75 93 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 82 91 81 91 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 77 99 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 78 94 76 91 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 82 89 81 89 / 0 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ231-232-250.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ236-237-255.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ270-275.