textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1201 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

- Daily patchy fog chances through Saturday morning

- Cold front Saturday drops dewpoint temps with little relief from afternoon high temps, but a cooler Monday morning.

- Best rain chances ahead of and along the cold front Saturday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

South Texas remains under upper-level ridge influence through Friday. Meanwhile, a cutoff low off the Baja Peninsula will move east as another digging trough takes its place over the eastern Pacific. Before this cutoff low brings a surface cold front into the region, warm and muggy temps will stick around the region. With weak winds overnight, this will continue the risk of patchy fog across the coastal and inland plains with denser patches mixed in through Saturday morning.

The cold front is expected to start pushing through the area Saturday afternoon before reaching the Gulf waters early Sunday morning. PWATS increase ahead of the front to 1.25-1.5 inches (closer to the 80th percentile), but the max values will remain over southeast Texas. Showers and thunderstorms will form ahead of and along the frontal boundary. Latest probabilities for 24 hr rainfall (ending at Sunday morning) for values of at least 0.25 inches will remain low to moderate (30-50% chances) across the Victoria Crossroads and dropping to near 10% across the Coastal Bend.

After the cold front moves through, winds will be out of the southwest/west, resulting in compressional heating out of the northern Mexico mountain ranges, providing little relief to afternoon temperatures and more noticeable temperature drops for Monday/Tuesday morning. As the cutoff low pushes further to the east, the region goes back into upper ridge influence through midweek.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through tonight. VIS and CIGs will reduce the flight categories to IFR/LIFR as winds weaken and fog forms. This will persist through mid-morning before clearing back out at the end of the TAF cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

A light and gentle onshore flow and near 2 ft seas tonight will continue through Thursday afternoon. This onshore flow increases to a moderate to fresh breeze through Friday night. A cold front passage on Saturday night will increase southerly flow out ahead of the front resulting in near Small Craft Advisory conditions with 4-6 ft seas. By Sunday morning, winds will be more northwesterly with similar sea heights. Showers and thunderstorms chances will be greatest across the open waters with the cold front passage (40-60%) on Saturday and quickly diminishing on Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1136 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Minimum relative humidity values will remain above 30% through the rest of the work week. As we head into the weekend, elevated to critical fire weather conditions could return behind our next cold front, as relative humidity values are forecast to drop well below 30% mainly across the Brush Country and western Coastal Plains. This combined with 20-foot winds of 10-20 mph, with frequent gusts to 25 mph, and Energy Release Component values in the 70-89th percentile may prompt the issuance of a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) or a Red Flag Warning (RFW) Saturday through Monday. However, with this cold frontal passage still a few days away, much can change between now and then.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 60 79 62 80 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 53 80 58 79 / 0 0 0 10 Laredo 62 84 63 88 / 10 0 0 0 Alice 58 82 59 83 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 60 75 63 76 / 0 0 0 10 Cotulla 58 81 60 86 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 59 81 61 83 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 62 74 64 75 / 0 0 0 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.