textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 120 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

- Scattered showers and storms continue today, especially east and south, then confined to the southern Coastal Plains Monday.

- Rain chances return late in the week.

- Near Seasonal temperatures through the next seven days, except a bit above normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 120 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

We're monitoring convection mainly in the southern Coastal Bend early this morning spinning around a broad mid-level disturbance in the Bay of Campeche. A subtle convergence boundary will help to focus most of the overnight convection to the immediate coast south of Port Aransas. With deep moisture still very high (2.46" pwat at 00Z), rainfall rates will continue to be very high within the stronger convective elements. With the boundary continuing to push eastward, the most organized convection should also push offshore by morning. Will still expect scattered showers and storms over South Texas during the morning and early afternoon tomorrow though, mainly south and east. The boundary will continue to hug the coast over the next few days and as a result, low rain chances will continue along the immediate coast and especially offshore through at least Monday.

By Tuesday and Wednesday we're watching some drier mid-level air approach, but there's some question whether it makes it this far south or not. For now will remain on the side of it making it until and if there's more consistency in guidance saying otherwise. This will bring a break from convection even to the coastal waters for a couple of days before moisture comes back later in the week as another mid-level low approaches Texas and gulf moisture pushes back in. Currently low to medium rain chances Thursday and Friday, possibly into Saturday.

High temps remain in the 80s today and Monday, but the 90s start creeping back in by Tuesday and through the middle of the week. Late week should see at least a slight decrease in temps as the moisture increases.

The steady northeasterly flow we will see through the first half of the week will warrant keeping an eye on tide levels along the coast. This is a flow that can often lead to wave run-up with Ekman transport. Water levels on Saturday did not appear to make it far up the beaches despite tidal values being fairly high, but suspect this will change as this northeast flow becomes more persistent. Coastal flood advisories could be needed by early in the work week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 120 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

There is mix of VFR/MVFR across all terminals this evening with terminals experiencing rain dropping down to MVFR/IFR due to VIS/CIGs. Most of the overnight rain chances will stay close to the coastal areas. KALI/KCRP will continue the PROB30 for additional - SHRA chances through 00Z. Otherwise, all terminals will see IFR CIGs dominate a good portion of the TAF cycle (12Z-00Z), though KCOT will be on the edge of these CIGs below 1K ft. N/NNE'ly winds will generally be at 10-15 kts through the TAF cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 120 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Fresh to strong (BF 5-6) northeasterly flow is expected through the next couple of days at least. A small craft advisory is in effect through mid-day Monday at this time, and may need to be extended a bit longer. By mid week, flow subsides a bit and should be mainly moderate to fresh. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through Tuesday, then low rain chances continue.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 120 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

No significant fire weather concerns are anticipated through the work week. Scattered showers and storms continue today, with lower chances mainly confined to the coast Monday. RH values will remain elevated through the week, above 40% each day.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 83 73 86 72 / 70 30 30 10 Victoria 85 70 89 68 / 40 10 0 0 Laredo 83 71 86 69 / 60 30 20 0 Alice 83 70 86 69 / 60 20 10 10 Rockport 86 74 88 74 / 60 40 20 20 Cotulla 85 72 88 69 / 40 10 0 0 Kingsville 82 71 86 70 / 60 40 30 10 Navy Corpus 84 76 86 76 / 80 60 50 30

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ250-255-270- 275.