textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1207 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

- Hazardous Marine conditions continue through Thursday afternoon

- A dry cold front late Friday/early Saturday, reinforcing cooler temperatures

- Low to moderate chance (35-65%) for freezing temperatures from La Salle to Victoria counties early Sunday morning

- Rain chances return early next week with increasing moisture and large-scale ascent

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1207 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

A meridional mid-level pattern remains in place, with a deep trough centered near the Great Lakes and high pressure over northern CA/NV. A mid-level low approaching the southern CA coast will allow deeper moisture to spread into our region early next week.

A cold front is expected to move through South Texas around 03-06Z Saturday, followed by somewhat breezy northeasterly winds and hazardous marine conditions. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely Saturday.

A brief cool-down will follow frontal passage, with highs Saturday in the low to mid 60s. Overnight lows Saturday night are forecast to drop into the low to mid 30s inland, the 40s across the Coastal Bend and around 50 degrees along the immediate coast. The NBM indicates a low to moderate chance (35-65%) of temperatures briefly dipping to freezing or lower across the northern tier of South Texas counties from northern Webb and La Salle to Victoria. Wind chills may fall to around 25 degrees in isolated northeastern locations and into the low to mid 30s elsewhere. Afternoon temperatures Sunday, will be very similar to Saturday, a bit warmer Monday (70s) and cooler again Tuesday (60-65) behind the next cold front.

Deterministic guidance brings the next cold front across the region late Monday into early Tuesday, though confidence in timing remains low. Chances of rain showers increase modestly with FROPA with a low to moderate (20-45%) chance across much of the CWA Tuesday through Wednesday.

Shower chances persist through mid-week as a coastal trough/surface low develops over the region and shifts eastward. PWAT's values per the GFS exceed the 99th percentile, while the GEFS ensemble mean above the 75th percentile. Current WPC guidance Day 1 through 7, supports QPF totals near 0.50" along coastal regions with isolated higher amounts possible. Of course, with differences between operational models and uncertainty, the QPF could change and will need to keep an eye on trends and adjust the forecast as necessary. High temperatures after Tuesday are expected to gradually warm back into the low to mid 70s by late week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the remainder of the period. Gusty winds will continue for Victoria for a few more hours before diminishing to below 12 knots by 09Z, then light and variable winds will prevail.

MARINE

Issued at 1207 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

A fresh to strong (BF 5-6) northeasterly breeze will decrease throughout the day today becoming light and variable by this evening. Tomorrow a moderate (BF 4) southerly breeze will usher in low-level moisture inland ahead of this weekend's cold front. Behind the front on Saturday, flow shifts northeast and becomes strong (BF6) with Small Craft Advisory conditions. Winds gradually decrease through Sunday with an onshore light to gentle (BF 2-3) breeze returning late Sunday. Winds gradually increase to moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) and become more easterly early Tuesday as a weaker cold front approaches and stalls over the waters. Low to moderate rain chances (30-45%) will return Saturday and again Tuesday into Wednesday as the aforementioned frontal boundaries interact with available moisture.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1211 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Another cold front is expected this weekend late Friday into early Saturday. Minimum RH values through Sunday are progged to remain less than 30% for the inland regions. Northeasterly winds behind the front will range between 10-15 mph with gusts to around 20 mph. ERC values around the 70th percentile will peak between the 75th-80th percentile Saturday and Sunday contributing to elevated Fire Weather concerns. Considering light winds today limiting the fire weather potential have opted to not issue a Fire Danger Statement. However by Saturday, more elevated winds and ERC values combined with dry fuels and a moderate fire danger, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible this weekend and an RFD/RFW may be needed.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 64 47 76 52 / 0 0 0 10 Victoria 64 42 76 45 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 69 46 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 67 41 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 64 52 73 52 / 0 0 0 10 Cotulla 68 42 77 44 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 66 43 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 62 54 72 56 / 0 0 0 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ231-232-236-237.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ250-255-270-275.