textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 523 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

- Dry conditions expected through Friday following today's weak cold front.

- Another cold front is expected late Sunday into Monday, although timing remains uncertain.

- Showers and thunderstorms return this weekend, with locally heavy rainfall possible.

- Minor coastal flooding and increased rip current risk is possible late Saturday into Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1247 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

A weak cold front will move through South Texas this afternoon, ushering in a drier air mass and slightly cooler overnight temperatures. Mostly dry conditions will persist through Friday as surface high pressure briefly influences the region. Onshore flow returns Friday night as the high shifts east, allowing moisture to increase ahead of an approaching upper-level disturbance.

Rain chances increase over the weekend, with the greatest coverage expected Sunday afternoon into the evening. Precipitation chances peak near 85% across the Victoria Crossroads, where widespread showers and thunderstorms are anticipated. GEFS mean PWATs around 1.30-1.40 inches indicate sufficient moisture to support rainfall, although the potential for locally heavy rainfall will depend on available instability and the strength of the forcing.

Uncertainty remains regarding timing of the next cold front, with the Euro bringing the the boundary to the region around 00Z Monday while the GFS favors a later arrival around 12Z Monday. This timing difference could influence the duration and coverage of precipitation Sunday night into Monday. Drier conditions are expected following FROPA, with a gradual return of onshore flow possible by the middle of next week.

Increasing onshore flow, elevated wave heights, and longer-period swells of 8-9 seconds will contribute to increased coastal hazards late Saturday into Sunday. P-ETSS guidance indicates tidal levels reaching 1.9-2.2 feet MSL, suggesting the potential for minor coastal flooding along portions of the Middle Texas coast. An increased risk of rip currents is also expected during this period. Coastal conditions will continue to be monitored for possible advisory issuance.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 523 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

VFR conditions prevail across South Texas this evening as skies clear. Light variable winds overnight into Friday morning along with clear skies, will allow for efficient radiational cooling in favor for fog development. However, there is uncertainty on whether cooling will be enough to reach complete saturation and lead to fog. I do believe there is a fairly good chance over fog prone areas of VCT and ALI to see IFR/MVFR vsbys with occasional restrictions to LIFR between 09-13Z. Elsewhere, confidence is not as high and have TEMPOs for MVFR vsby. VFR conditions prevail by 15Z as any fog is lifted/evaporated. We'll see light east to southeasterly winds return Friday afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1247 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Gentle to moderate northeast winds behind today's cold front will gradually become easterly Friday before shifting southeast and strengthening over the weekend. Increasing moisture and an approaching upper-level disturbance will bring increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, particularly Sunday into Sunday night. Another cold front is expected late Sunday into Monday, although timing is uncertain. A northerly wind shift and potentially elevated winds and seas can be expected following frontal passage.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1247 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions are not anticipated through the forecast period. Drier air will briefly settle across South Texas behind today's cold front before increasing moisture and onshore flow return Friday night. Showers and thunderstorms this weekend should help maintain favorable fuel moisture conditions. Another cold front is expected late Sunday into Monday, bringing a wind shift and another period of drying starting Tuesday. However, recent rainfall and expected weekend precip should limit fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 55 76 61 75 / 0 0 10 30 Victoria 51 75 53 71 / 0 0 0 20 Laredo 56 77 62 75 / 0 0 20 40 Alice 52 76 55 75 / 0 0 20 40 Rockport 59 74 65 75 / 0 0 10 40 Cotulla 51 75 56 73 / 0 0 10 30 Kingsville 52 77 57 76 / 0 0 20 40 Navy Corpus 63 75 69 76 / 0 0 10 40

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.