textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 130 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

- Moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts this weekend into early next week, heat index 100-110

- Low to medium rain chances (20-40%) first half of next week, increases to medium to high chances (50-70%) latter half of the week

- Potential for minor coastal flooding increases this weekend into early next week

- Moderate risk of rip currents today through this weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

A weakening mid-level ridge today and tomorrow will suppress precipitation chances, causing temperatures to climb into the upper 90s over the Brush Country this weekend. A developing surface low over the central Great Plains will tighten the surface pressure gradient and cause breezy conditions today into next week. Southeasterly winds will likely be sustained at 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph this afternoon and evening.

Moisture increases significantly early next week as Pacific moisture ushering in from a deep trough sagging into Baja California combines with efficient moisture advection at 925mb carrying a strong 30-40 knots low-level jet (LLJ) along with near climatological max specific humidity. Near max moisture will combine with a series of mid-level shortwaves progressing downstream of the trough from Mexico into South Texas, to create daily low to medium rain chances Monday through Wednesday. Later in the week, either a cut-off low or a more potent shortwave appears to develop over Baja California and shifts eastward towards Texas, increasing rain chances further. The ECMWF is definitely the wettest solution over South Texas, whereas the GFS keeps greatest accumulations northward. Rainfall locations will be highly dependent on the positioning of the mid-level disturbances. The LREF maintains a 50-70% chance of at least 1" rainfall across much of South Texas through Friday of next week.

The increase in dewpoints will push heat indices to 100-110 across South Texas Sunday through Tuesday, causing a moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts. Breaks in clouds over the Brush Country will allow for more efficient surface heating and therefore poses the greatest threat to heat risk. Once again, extremely high dewpoints will reflect in near record high minimum temperatures Sunday morning through Wednesday morning.

Minor coastal flooding and an increased risk of rip currents will be one of our primary concerns this weekend into early next week. Astronomical high tide will occur with the new moon, along with strong persistent south to southeasterly winds and increasing swells. I do want to note that the lack of buoy data makes it hard to truly get a grasp on the swell heights and periods, a major component to wave runup on the beaches. We'll need to keep a close eye on beach conditions. In addition to minor coastal flooding, there is a moderate risk of rip currents.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 130 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Still looking at a primarily low CIG threat rather than a low VIS threat through 15Z. Elevated winds overnight will minimize the fog threat. VFR conditions will prevail through the day with a SE'ly nearing 20 kt sustained gusting to 30-35 kt along the immediate coastline with slightly lower (but breezy) SE'ly winds inland.

MARINE

Issued at 130 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Southeasterly flow will strengthen to a moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) breeze today and persist into the middle of next week. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect this afternoon through late tonight for the bays and nearshore waters south of Port Aransas. An extension or/and expansion of the advisory may be necessary heading into the weekend. There are low to medium rain chances beginning daily on Tuesday next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 130 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Borderline elevated fire weather conditions over the Rio Grande Plains this afternoon. Although minimum relative humidity may drop to 25-30% this afternoon along with breezy southeasterly winds, energy release components are below the 25th percentile and fuel moisture is mainly normal to dry. Following today, no elevated fire weather conditions are expected into the middle of next week. Moisture increases significantly later this weekend and continues through next week, bringing minimum relative humidity to only 45-60% over the Brush Country, along with daily low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances beginning Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 88 75 88 79 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 89 72 89 76 / 0 0 0 10 Laredo 99 72 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 94 71 93 77 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 86 77 87 79 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 99 72 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 91 73 90 78 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 84 77 85 79 / 0 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ231-232-250.