textproduct: Corpus Christi

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

South Texas will be in between a mid-level low over the SW Gulf and a building ridge over the SW CONUS. Moisture will gradually climb into normal PWAT values Tuesday, but unfortunately not enough forcing will be present to warrant any mentionable rain chances. A cold front will reach the Edwards Plateau today before retreating northward tonight. The increase in moisture, mostly clear skies, and calmer winds at night will increase fog chances over the inland Coastal Plains during the early morning hours today and Tuesday.

The amplifying ridge moves into and over the southern CONUS midweek and persists through the weekend. Meanwhile, a large trough over the Great Lakes region tries to push a surface cold front through Texas late in the week. The GFS has the front push through South Texas Friday night into Saturday morning, whereas the ECMWF and CMC has the front come to a stop over the Hill Country before retreating northward as a warm front, similar solution to what we'll experience today. Due to the model discrepancies, temperatures are slightly lowered and widespread this weekend. Otherwise, spread and model guidance is tight through Friday night. Highs generally from around 80 along the coast to the low-mid 90s over the Brush Country. Lows will likely continue to range from the low to mid 60s. Elevated fire weather conditions will likely continue each afternoon and evening over the Brush Country and inland Coastal Plains.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

There's a moderate chance (45%) for VSBYs to drop to less than 1/2SM across VCT/ALI and a low (30%) chance for less than 1/2SM at CRP overnight tonight/early Monday morning. VFR conditions should return around 14Z accompanied by light southeasterly winds this afternoon with gusts up to around 15-20KT. Followed by another round of overnight fog.

MARINE

Issued at 224 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) south-southeasterly breeze will weaken to a light to gentle flow (BF 2-3) later this morning and continue through Tuesday. Conditions rebound to a gentle to moderate flow Tuesday night into Wednesday, continuing through this weekend with an occasional fresh breeze for bays and nearshore waters south of Port Aransas. Rain chances are expected to remain negligible with wave heights between 2-4 feet.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 224 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Persistent ridging will keep abnormally warm conditions across South Texas. A weak cold front will push south into the Edwards Plateau today, but fail to reach South Texas as it retreats northward tonight. Relative humidity will consistently drop to 20-30% over the inland Coastal Plains and Brush Country each afternoon through at least Friday, with energy release components (ERCs) in the 70-90th percentiles and dry to critically dry fuels. Frequent wind gusts over 20 mph behind the seabreeze while RH is below 30% warrants a mention of elevated fire weather conditions. Therefore, a Fire Danger Statement has been issued for Jim Wells to Live Oak westward this afternoon and evening. Similar conditions are expected through Friday. Another cold front will approach South Texas this weekend, but confidence is low in the southward progression at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 84 64 85 66 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 86 61 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 91 64 93 65 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 90 61 90 64 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 81 66 81 68 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 90 62 92 63 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 87 62 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 78 67 78 68 / 0 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.