textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 513 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

- Coastal flooding and rip currents will be possible later this week due to the tropical system currently in the Bay of Campeche

- Generally dry across South Texas through the week and into the weekend with a low chance of rain along the coast at times. Higher chances over the gulf.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Not much change from the previous forecast. Expect drier conditions to continue through the week outside of isolated seabreeze showers and thunderstorms. That is due to weak mid level ridging and a slightly drier airmass across S TX. However, a broad mid level trough draped across the gulf waters and a broad surface low across the Bay of Campeche will continue to bring a medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms along the Middle Texas Coast and Coastal Waters through the end of the work week. The National Hurricane Center expects a tropical storm to develop overnight and eventually becoming a hurricane as we progress through the week. The storm is thankfully expected to move north-northeast, keeping the system far east of S TX. This will result in drier conditions on the west side of the system. Though again we cannot rule out an isolated morning or sea breeze shower each day. The drier conditions may also unfortunately lead to much warmer temperatures across S TX. A mid/upper level cut off low is progged to track/develop across West TX which would provide upper support for convective development across Mexico on Thu/Fri. Though with the lack of moisture in the Rio Grande Plains chances will remain very low at this time for convection.

The main concern if a tropical system develops over the gulf will be an increased risk of coastal flooding, moderate to high rip current risk and seas possibly building up to 9-10 feet. Will not extend the advisory through tonight and not expecting coastal flooding on during today either as winds in the gulf waters will be lighter. Additional Coastal Flood Advisories may be needed the latter part of the week depending on tropical development in the gulf. Some models indicate swell periods may increase to 9-10 seconds by Friday along with seas building to 9-10 feet or higher due to a strengthening northeast flow over the gulf waters. This will provide sufficient energy to push the water up to the dunes. If the winds strengthen to 25-30 knots with seas building to around 12 feet, then tide levels at high tide could reach 3 feet MSL and a Coastal Flood Warning would be needed. However, chances are low that this will occur, but will continue to monitor trends and possible tropical development.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 513 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF cycle, with the exception of low-end seabreeze showers developing, though confidence in placement of anything that may develop is too low to include in the TAF for KALI/KVCT.

MARINE

Issued at 127 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Northeasterly winds around moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) levels continue through tonight before increasing to fresh and strong levels Thursday, especially offshore. Winds will subside by early this weekend. Late week conditions may be influenced by potential tropical development. Keep up to date with the latest forecasts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 127 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Not anticipating any significant fire weather concerns the work week with mainly moderate humidity levels and weak winds. Rain chances are low to very low, mainly along the Coastal Bend through the week and the upcoming weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 91 73 91 73 / 0 0 10 0 Victoria 96 70 96 69 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 93 72 93 71 / 0 0 10 0 Alice 93 71 93 70 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 91 75 91 74 / 0 10 0 0 Cotulla 94 70 94 70 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 91 72 92 71 / 10 0 10 0 Navy Corpus 88 78 88 77 / 10 0 10 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM CDT Friday for GMZ270-275.