textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 133 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

- Warming trend through the upcoming week.

- Elevated fire conditions possible across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains through the period.

- A low (10-20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 133 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

A deep southerly flow aloft will help usher deeper moisture into S TX, with PWATS increasing to around 1.5 inches through mid week. A cold front is forecast to move into Central TX, but models differ on how far south the boundary makes it before it washes out. The GFS seems to be the outlier with the front moving through S TX. If the boundary can make into S TX, it will provide lift and combine with the deeper moisture, an upper level short wave, and weak instability to produce showers and thunderstorms. Given the uncertainty with timing, amount of available moisture and location of the boundary, will keep rain chance low (15-20%) for Wednesday night into Thursday with adjustments likely over the next few days. Models show drier conditions by next weekend. Otherwise, above normal temperatures will continue through the period along with breezy onshore winds each afternoon.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 133 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Mostly clear currently across South Texas with MVFR ceilings creeping northward into Duval and Webb counties. LRD will likely experience MVFR ceilings first, before the deck spreads eastward and northward. Confidence is not as high east to CRP/VCT so TEMPOs are used between 10-15Z. Winds will remain light and variable early this morning. VFR conditions prevail by 17Z across all terminals with southeasterly winds strengthening to around 15 knots with gust 20-25 knots this afternoon, weakening in the evening.

MARINE

Issued at 133 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) southeasterly flow will continue through the week. Periods of a fresh (BF 5) breeze south of Port Aransas to Baffin Bay will be possible Wednesday night through the end of the work week. There is a low (10-20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms by the middle of the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 133 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Minimum relative humidity values are expected to drop below 30% each afternoon over the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country. This may lead to elevated to near critical fire weather conditions at times during the week when combined with breezy southeasterly flow, and dry fuels, mainly across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains. A low chance of showers and thunderstorms will return by the middle of the week, which could help to improve fire weather conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 82 66 83 68 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 82 62 85 64 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 89 67 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 87 63 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 80 68 81 70 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 89 64 92 65 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 84 64 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 77 69 79 70 / 0 0 10 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.