textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 145 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

- Moderate to major risk of heat related impacts Tuesday.

- Low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms return mid week.

- Cold front expected Thursday.

- Minor coastal flooding and moderate to high risk of rip currents possible Thursday-Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Mostly cloudy skies and slightly warmer temperatures tonight. A moderate risk (a few locations at a major risk) of heat related impacts Tuesday. The heat risk will generally be across most of S TX, except the Victoria Crossroads.

Rain chances return to the Victoria Crossroads by Wednesday when a surface trough/dryline develops across S TX and combines with an embedded mid level short wave. A capping inversion will inhibit convective develop farther south and west. A cold front is expected to move through S TX Thursday morning, bringing a 30-40% chance of showers and thunderstorms across all of S TX. The capping inversion is progged to decrease and the front looks to coincide with another embedded short wave aloft. Rain chances continue behind the cold front through Friday due to the tail end of the mid/upper level trough cuts off over Mexico. The GFS is more aggressive with this feature which would keep low to medium rain chances through Saturday. For now, the other models forecast a weakening upper trough tracking north of S TX with low rain chances for S TX.

Behind the cold front, cooler temperatures will filter into the area Thursday and continue through Friday. Northeasterly winds shift to the east and southeast Friday and usher warmer temperatures back across S TX.

Minor coastal flooding and moderate to high rip current risk is possible Thursday and Friday due to a moderate northeast flow developing across the western gulf behind the cold front along with increasing seas and swells.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR CIGs expected the rest of this afternoon and evening. MVFR CIGs are expected to develop between 05-08Z tonight and is forecast to prevail across S TX through the overnight hours. CIGs are expected to lift to VFR levels by mid morning Tuesday. SSE winds gusting to 20-25 knots will continue this afternoon, then gusts 22-27 knots expected Tuesday.

MARINE

Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) southeast breeze expected tonight. A fresh (BF 5) onshore flow is expected to develop through this evening and continue through Tuesday. Winds may briefly reach advisory levels Tuesday afternoon for the bays and nearshore waters south of Port Aransas. The chance for showers and thunderstorms returns the latter part of the week in response to an approaching cold front. A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) northeast flow is expected to develop behind the cold front Thursday. Winds decrease and shift to the east-southeast Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Relative humidity values will generally remain at or above 35% through the forecast period. This, combined with sustained 20 foot winds less than 20 mph and ERC in the 0-40 percentile will prevent fire weather concerns. Wetting rains expected to return the latter half of the week in response to an approaching cold front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 73 89 76 90 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 69 88 73 89 / 0 0 0 20 Laredo 72 99 76 99 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 70 96 75 96 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 74 85 76 86 / 0 0 0 10 Cotulla 71 98 75 94 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 72 94 76 94 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 75 84 77 85 / 0 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.