textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

- High chance of tropical development in the Bay of Campeche this week with coastal flooding and rip currents the primary concern for South Texas.

- A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect until 7 PM this evening. Additional Coastal Flood Advisories may be needed, especially the latter part of the week depending on tropical development in the gulf.

- Generally dry across South Texas through the week and into the weekend with a low chance of rain along the coast at times. Higher chances over the gulf.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Weak mid level ridging and a slightly drier airmass across S TX will keep rain chances very low to nil through the week. However, a broad mid level trough draped across the gulf waters and a broad surface low across the Bay of Campeche will continue to bring a medium to high chance of showers and thunderstorms to the Middle Texas Coastal Waters through the end of the work week. But all of this is highly dependent on whether or not a tropical system develops across the Bay of Campeche. The National Hurricane Center now has a 90% chance of development. If it does develop, it is expected to move north or northeast, keeping the system far east of S TX. This typically results in drier conditions on the west side of the system. Can not rule out an isolated morning or sea breeze shower each day. The drier conditions may also lead to much warmer temperatures across S TX.

A mid/upper level cut off low is progged to track/develop across West TX which would provide upper support for convective development across Mexico on Thu/Fri. This convection has a low to very low chance of moving across the Rio Grande and into western Webb County.

The main concern if a tropical system develops over the gulf will be an increased risk of coastal flooding, moderate to high rip current risk and seas possibly building up to 9-10 feet. Currently a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through this evening due to a persistent northeast flow across the northwest gulf waters pushing water up to the dunes during times of high tide. Will not extend the advisory through tonight and not expecting coastal flooding on Wednesday as winds across the gulf waters will be lighter. The last high tide earlier today reached just shy of 2 feet MSL and is expected to reach around 1.4-1.7 feet MSL with the next high tide. Additional Coastal Flood Advisories may be needed the latter part of the week depending on tropical development in the gulf. Some models indicate swell periods may increase to 9-10 seconds by Friday along with seas building to 9-10 feet or higher due to a strengthening northeast flow over the gulf waters. This will provide sufficient energy to push the water up to the dunes. If the winds strengthen to 25-30 knots with seas building to around 12 feet, then tide levels at high tide could reach 3 feet MSL and a Coastal Flood Warning would be needed. However, chances are low that this will occur, but will continue to monitor trends and possible tropical development.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR conditions expected through the TAF cycle. Light north to northeast winds will become variable overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Northeasterly winds at moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) levels continue through Wednesday before increasing to fresh and strong levels Thursday, especially offshore. Winds later in the week are expected to subside a bit. Late week conditions may be influenced by potential tropical development. Keep up to date with the latest forecasts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

No significant fire weather concerns are anticipated through the work week with mainly moderate humidity levels and weak winds. Rain chances are low to very low, mainly along the Coastal Bend through the week and the upcoming weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 73 91 74 91 / 10 10 0 10 Victoria 70 95 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 71 93 71 93 / 0 0 0 10 Alice 70 92 70 93 / 10 0 10 10 Rockport 75 91 75 91 / 10 10 10 10 Cotulla 70 93 70 93 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 72 91 72 91 / 10 10 10 10 Navy Corpus 78 88 78 88 / 10 10 10 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ345- 442-443-447.

GM...None.