textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 526 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

- Coastal flooding rip currents will be likely later this week into the weekend due to Hurricane Isaias

- Generally dry across South Texas through the week and into the weekend with a low chance of rain by early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 138 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Not much change from the previous forecast. Expect drier conditions to continue through the week outside of isolated seabreeze showers and thunderstorms. That is due to weak mid level ridging and a slightly drier airmass across S TX. We will likely still see some activity over the Texas waters due to now Hurricane Isaias as it moves north-northeast away from us. We will see drier condition across the region leading to much warmer temperatures across S TX. A mid/upper level cut off low is progged to track/develop across West TX which would provide upper support for convective development across Mexico on Thu/Fri. Though with the lack of moisture in the Rio Grande Plains chances will remain very low at this time for convection. Another disturbance looks to creep into the region early next week. This disturbance may have a little more moisture to work with and will bring a low chance of showers and storms to the region during the day.

The main concern Hurricane Isaias will bring to South Texas will be an increased risk of coastal flooding, high rip current risk and seas building up to 9-10 feet. Coastal Flood Advisories will likely be needed the Friday/Saturday as Isaias progress its way through the gulf. Models have came into agreement that swell periods will increase to 9-10 seconds by Friday afternoon/evening along with seas building to 9-10 feet or higher due to a strengthening northeast flow over the gulf waters. This will provide sufficient energy to push the water up to the dunes. If the winds strengthen to 25-30 knots with seas building to around 12 feet, then tide levels at high tide could reach 3 feet MSL and a Coastal Flood Warning would be needed. However, chances remain low that this will occur, but will continue to monitor trends.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 526 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Winds at the beginning of the TAF cycle will be light and increasing to 10-15 kt after 18Z, then becoming more E'ly as winds weaken overnight. Low end 10-15% chance for seabreeze storms, but too low of a chance to include as TEMPO/PROB30.

MARINE

Issued at 138 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Northeasterly winds around moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) levels continue through tonight before increasing to fresh and strong levels today, especially offshore. Periods are expected to build around 9-10 seconds with seas around 9-10 ft by Friday evening/early Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory will go into effect this morning lasting through Friday though a potential extension is likely. Winds will subside by early this weekend. Keep up to date with the latest forecasts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 138 AM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Still not anticipating any significant fire weather concerns through the next week with mainly moderate humidity levels and weak winds. Rain chances are low to very low, mainly along the Coastal Bend through the week and the upcoming weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 90 72 90 71 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 96 68 95 68 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 92 73 93 70 / 10 10 0 0 Alice 92 69 92 68 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 90 73 90 73 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 94 72 94 69 / 0 10 0 0 Kingsville 90 70 90 69 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 87 76 87 75 / 10 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for TXZ345-442-443- 447.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for GMZ270-275.