textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 129 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

- Medium rain chances today, with higher rain chances becoming more focused over the Victoria Crossroads and northern Coastal Plains Monday and Tuesday.

- Max heat indices 104 to 109 degrees today and Monday with a moderate risk of heat-related impacts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

With the 500 hPa high pressure shifting from the central Rockies into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Monday, this will allow a shortwave disturbance at the base of troughing over the ECONUS to detach from the main flow and bring lobes of vort maxes through the Southern US and retrograding into Texas Tuesday through Thursday. Closer to the surface, we remain under onshore flow with PWATs generally hovering between 2.0-2.0" (close to 2 standard deviations above normal). These PWATs will continue to support efficient seabreeze convection that forms, though the greatest rainfall rates/amounts will be in the Victoria Crossroads and locations to the northeast.

By Tuesday a mid-level disturbance moves into southeast Texas and pivot to the west. There is still some uncertainty in how far south this disturbance moves through South Texas. Greatest chances for showers/thunderstorms will be closer to the I-10 corridor, but should the upcoming guidance shift southward, then these >50% PoPs could shift further to the south. Wednesday is looking like the greatest chance for meaningful rainfall across the northern Brush Country and toward the Rio Grande Plains. There is still some uncertainty as to how much rainfall will fall as the ECMWF ensemble keeps higher PWATs across southern and central Texas compared to the GFS ensemble. WPC has put portions of the Brush Country under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for flash flooding through Thursday (just the tip of northwestern Webb County has been placed under a Slight risk (level 2 of 4) given the proximity to greater upper- level dynamics support greater rainfall). Again, confidence is low for rainfall amounts at this time, but as CAMs start picking up on the period, we'll have a better idea of the extent of QPF.

Given this shift to more cloudy and higher rain chances, high temperatures will generally be near or slightly below normal Tuesday through Thursday. Leading up to Tuesday, heat indices (for locations that don't see storms roll through) are forecast to remain at 104- 109F (and thus a Moderate HeatRisk).

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Seabreeze storms will continue through the late afternoon hours leading to brief VIS reduction, but otherwise, mostly VFR conditions prevail through 10Z. After 10Z, TEMPO groups have been added for MVFR CIG/VIS, with VFR returning after 14Z. KVCT has the greatest chances for showers and thunderstorms from 12-18Z and as such, this terminal has a PROB30 group to account for this.

MARINE

Issued at 129 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Gentle to moderate onshore winds (BF 3-4) with 2-3 ft seas and daily chances for showers closer to the barrier islands and inland bays north of Port Aransas through mid-week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 79 91 79 91 / 10 20 0 10 Victoria 76 91 76 89 / 30 50 40 60 Laredo 78 98 78 97 / 20 10 10 0 Alice 76 94 76 93 / 0 20 0 0 Rockport 81 90 81 90 / 20 30 20 20 Cotulla 77 96 77 93 / 20 10 30 10 Kingsville 77 92 77 92 / 0 10 0 0 Navy Corpus 82 89 82 89 / 10 20 10 10

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.