textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 619 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

- Temperatures gradually warm to above normal by middle of the week.

- Low to very low rain chances Monday-Wednesday across S TX. Higher chances across the coastal waters south of Port Aransas.

- Minor coastal flooding will remain possible through the week.

- Moderate Rip Current Risk today through Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Temperatures are forecast to gradually warm with above normal temps by the middle of the week. This is due to a mid/upper level ridge of high pressure and a modifying airmass.

As for rain chances, deep mid and upper level moisture associated with an upper level short wave currently tracking east across S TX has brought light rain to a few locations may continue through today. In addition, low level moisture (PWATs 1.8 inches) moving toward the coastline from the gulf associated with a surface to mid level trough, will bring a low to very low chance of showers along the immediate coast. However, much of S TX will remain dry. Higher chances are expected across the coastal waters where deeper moisture will reside. Models show drier conditions (PWATs around 0.8in) moving into S TX Tuesday, further limiting any rain chances. Models then show PWATs of 1.8 inches moving back into S TX on Wednesday. The surface trough along the coast is progged to shift west Wednesday, thus the low chance of showers will also shift west. Rain chances are higher across Deep S TX. Rain chances decrease to very low or nil the latter part of the week as the mid/upper level high pressure becomes more dominant across the region. Latest model runs indicate the next chance for precipitation to occur is early next week with another surface to mid level trough moving west across the region.

Models indicate that a northeast to east wind will persist across the gulf waters through Thursday due to the series of surface to mid level troughs moving west across the region. Although the flow will generally be 5-15 knots, the persistent direction and swell periods around 8 seconds could lead to minor coastal flooding during times of high tide. P-ETSS indicates that tide levels will remain below the 2ft MSL threshold, thus confidence is low, but will continue to monitor trends.

Although the northeast flow tends to limit the rip current risk to a low risk, the 8 second period swells makes it hard to go with a low risk. Thus bumped it to moderate Today through Tuesday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 619 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF cycle with generally light and variable winds.

MARINE

Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

A moderate to occasionally fresh (BF 4-5) northeast to east breeze can be expected through the mid-week. Low to medium chance of showers Monday through Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 230 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Relative humidity values will slowly increase today through the rest of the week, limiting the fire weather risk. Winds are also expected to be light through the week. In addition, the ERC is forecast to remain below the 75th percentile and the fuel dryness levels are expected to be normal with spotty dry areas through Wednesday. Fire weather conditions are not expected at this time. The chance for wetting rains is low to very low across most of South Texas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 81 70 85 69 / 10 10 0 10 Victoria 83 60 87 62 / 10 0 0 0 Laredo 86 68 90 68 / 10 0 0 0 Alice 84 66 88 65 / 10 0 0 0 Rockport 82 71 84 71 / 10 10 0 10 Cotulla 84 64 89 64 / 10 0 0 0 Kingsville 83 68 86 67 / 10 10 0 0 Navy Corpus 80 76 82 75 / 20 10 0 20

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.