textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 459 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

- Patchy to areas of fog early this morning over the inland Coastal Plains and Brush Country

- Medium to high rain chances this weekend ahead of our next cold front Sunday night into Monday

- Minor coastal flooding and increased risk of rip currents Sunday into early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1231 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

This morning we'll be keeping a close eye on just how efficient radiational cooling will be under clear skies, light to calm winds, and dewpoints in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Right now, Alice is already at a 0-3 dewpoint depression, highly indicative of fog development given the several hours of additional radiational cooling left. Patchy to areas of fog is expected over the inland Coastal Plains to Brush Country, but just how dense is uncertain. Any fog will be lifted by mid-morning with sunny skies and temperatures reaching the mid to upper 70s as onshore flow gradually returns.

A cutoff mid-level low currently off the west coast will shift eastward and get ingested into the base of the main trough this weekend, positioning itself directly over South Texas Saturday. This will allow for low to medium rain chances, with coverage shifting west to east through the day in coordination with the PVA associated with the trough as it moves eastward. Following the trough, surface troughing will amplify over South Texas in advance of an approaching cold front Sunday night into Monday, putting us in the favorable warm sector with above-normal moisture Saturday night through Sunday (PWATs 75th percentile or greater). Rain chances increase to a medium to high (40-90%) Sunday ahead of the front pushing through, then lower Sunday night into Monday morning behind it.

Rainfall through the weekend looks to remain under 1.50" for most of South Texas, ensembles are in good agreement with higher amounts in the 90th percentile around 4.0" over the Victoria Crossroads. Sunday in particular has an extreme forecast index of 0.7 over the Victoria Crossroads, signifying an unusual event in terms of rainfall amounts. Therefore, there is a marginal risk of flash flooding in effect. Given the recent rainfall, soils are more saturated than normal and can lead to more efficient runoff and ponding.

Lastly, there is increasing concern for minor coastal flooding Sunday into early next week as swell periods increase. Southeasterly winds strengthen Sunday ahead of the front, before shifting out of the northeast in the wake, resulting in the Ekman transport mechanism aiding in wave runup. Consequently, the rip current risk will also increase, causing more dangerous swimming conditions.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 459 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Mostly VFR conditions prevail today except for the brief MVFR CIGs brought on by patchy fog. Fog chances lift by 15Z. Focus then shifts to the upcoming TAF cycle where rain chances will be introduced from west to east.

MARINE

Issued at 1231 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Light to gentle southeasterly winds will persist through tonight, then strengthen to moderate to fresh Saturday, reaching fresh to strong Saturday night into Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Low rain chances return Saturday, increase to medium to high Saturday night through Sunday night. A cold front pushes through by Monday morning, leading to strong to near Gale force northeasterly winds through the day Monday. Northeasterly winds weaken to moderate to fresh by Tuesday and continue into the middle of next week along with low rain chances.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1231 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions are not anticipated through the forecast period. Light onshore flow will return later this afternoon. Medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend will keep fuel moisture higher than normal. Another cold front is expected by Monday morning, bringing a breezy northeasterly wind shift. However, temperatures will remain cooler than normal and lead to minimum relative humidity above 40 percent.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 76 61 76 67 / 0 0 30 40 Victoria 76 53 72 61 / 0 0 30 50 Laredo 78 61 77 66 / 0 0 50 0 Alice 77 55 76 64 / 0 0 40 30 Rockport 75 65 75 67 / 0 0 30 70 Cotulla 76 56 74 63 / 0 0 30 30 Kingsville 77 58 77 66 / 0 0 40 30 Navy Corpus 75 69 76 70 / 0 0 30 60

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.