textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 512 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

- Cold front today will bring temperatures back near normal Sunday into early next week.

- Red Flag Warning issued today due to Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions. Also possible for Sunday.

- Very warm temperatures return by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Expect continued foggy conditions through the early morning hours as winds subside across the area. Patchy dense fog is possible in the Coastal Plains, but will hold off on advisory as most sites have been slow to come down.

The initial push of a cold front has been stalled just outside of our area since Friday afternoon with a dewpoint of 47 in Pleasanton and 70 in Live Oak county. This boundary will drift southward this morning, but not have much impact on conditions. The stronger push comes through by mid-day (faster than earlier models have been showing). A few showers will be possible along this boundary as it taps into some weak instability and abundant moisture in the Coastal Plains. Once this moves through we'll clear out the lingering fog and haze as much drier air filters in. Temperatures expected to still make it into the 80s, though did cut back just a touch from NBM with earlier arrival of the drier air. Gusty winds will develop in the afternoon, and this combined with dry air will lead to a critical fire concern for inland areas.

Seasonal conditions are expected Sunday and Monday with highs in the 60s and 70s. This will be accompanied with mainly clear skies. Sunday will again see gusty winds and low RH, and a red flag warning may be necessary again. Low temperatures Sunday and Monday mornings will fall into the 40s.

Temperatures rebound heading toward the middle of next week as winds shift back to the southeast and ridging shifts east. Above the surface by Wednesday/Thursday, we'll tapping into very warm air in and around the 850mb level with southwest to westerly winds. This will equate to very warm temperatures with highs in the 90s for much of the area. Records will be tough, but not unbreakable. Something to keep an eye on.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 512 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

CIGs are at minimum reducing flight categories down to MVFR, but IFR/LIFR conditions have been observed along the coast and across the Victoria Crossroads. With the wind shift occurring after 12Z and wind speeds increasing after 14Z, we've only got a few hours left with these reduced flight conditions. The cloud deck quickly breaks up as drier air filters in. Most locations climb into VFR conditions by 18-20Z. NE winds tonight continue to range around 20 kts sustained gusting to 30 kts. There is low confidence in LLWS, but a hint that KCOT/KVCT would be the most likely affected sites between 06Z-12Z. Due to the low confidence, I left out these lines from this TAF cycle, but we'll keep monitoring trends in subsequent model runs.

MARINE

Issued at 1200 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

A strong cold front will move through the area today with very strong to gale force northerly winds developing behind it. Rough seas will also develop. While winds will begin to subside doing the day Sunday, strong winds will persist into the evening, especially in deep waters. Gentle to moderate winds return for Monday and Tuesday, shifting back around to the southeaster. Another period of strong winds - this time out of the south - is likely mid to late week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1200 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

The arrival of a cold front today will lead to very low fuels, high energy release component (50th-89th percentile), and strong gusty winds (N around 15 to 20 MPH with gusts to 30 MPH). Due to this a Red Flag Warning is in effect for the Brush Country and western Coastal Plains. Expect another day of elevated to critical fire conditions on Sunday, extending farther into the Coastal Plains. Will have to monitor conditions as we progress through the week as RH values are forecasted to remain on the lower end through the majority of the next week, but winds will not be as strong. As RH values remain low through the week and temperatures soar Wednesday and Thursday will have to keep an eye on potentially more elevated to critical fire conditions with southerly winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 82 47 68 44 / 20 0 0 0 Victoria 80 42 67 39 / 10 0 0 0 Laredo 81 47 70 42 / 20 0 0 0 Alice 85 45 69 39 / 10 0 0 0 Rockport 82 49 69 47 / 20 0 0 0 Cotulla 79 42 69 38 / 10 0 0 0 Kingsville 84 47 69 41 / 10 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 77 51 66 52 / 20 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CST this evening for TXZ229>233-239>241.

Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ233-234- 245>247-345>347-447.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ231-232-236-237- 250-255.

Gale Watch from this evening through Sunday morning for GMZ231- 232-236-237-250-255-270-275.