textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 206 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

- Major to Extreme risk of heat-related impacts across a large portion of South Texas today, then lowering to a moderate to major risk the rest of the week.

- Increasing rain chances to a medium to high by Thursday.

- Elevated Fire Weather conditions expected today. A Fire Danger Statement remains in effect. Elevated Fire Weather conditions remain possible through Wednesday, mainly across the Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

With 1.54" PWATs observed from the KCRP 18Z sounding, there's not enough moisture for the seabreeze to do much of anything in terms of giving us an isolated storm... in fact, much of the Coastal Bend remained cloud-free through 2 PM. But fear not humidity lovers, you're in store for another muggy next few days. PWATs are forecast to increase to 2.0-2.25" through Thursday night. Combined with the seabreeze and upper-level disturbances riding the southern periphery of the summer-long high pressure system, we'll have better chances for rain chances.

While models have been consistent with the moisture advection, it is worth noting that there still is some disagreement with how widespread showers and thunderstorms will be, especially across the Victoria Crossroads. While the NBM's PoP near 80-90%, looking at multi-run changes at Victoria show that while the rain is consistently there (above 30% PoPs, global ensemble models are struggling at how high PoPs get). For this reason, I've limited Max PoP on Thursday to be similar to the previous' package strategy of limiting PoP to 65% along the coast and 55% further inland. As the 18Z CAM runs come in, this will help guide how much further PoP intervention will be needed on Thursday. Unfortunately, PoP becomes more so <35% closer to the Rio Grande. Rain chances begin to drop off Friday as the PWATs come back down and South Texas is back again at the mercy of isolated seabreeze convection.

Models show a long easterly fetch developing across the northern gulf waters this week which may help push water farther up the beaches. Will continue to monitor trends for slightly higher than normal tides and/or an increased rip current risk. At this time, minor coastal flooding is not anticipated but will continue to be monitored.

And of course it'll be hot for those locations that don't see any seabreeze storm Wednesday. We'll have to monitor heat index trends tonight to see if a Heat Advisory is needed Wednesday, but for now, we continue to messaging of hydrate, hydrate, hydrate!

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 206 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through 10Z. Then, chances for brief MVFR VIS in the coastal plains will be in place through 14Z. Rain chances then increase across the Victoria Crossroads and thus a PROB30 group was added to KVCT through 18Z.

MARINE

Issued at 206 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

A moderate to gentle southeast breeze persists tonight with 2-3 ft seas. Winds primarily will be easterly from Thursday across the western Gulf resulting in seas increasing to 3-5 ft and then reducing to 3-4 ft on Friday. Rain chances increase through Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Minimum relative humidity is expected to be around 20-30% this afternoon across the Brush Country. Thus, Elevated Fire Weather concerns are expected and a Fire Danger Statement has been issued for the Brush Country this afternoon. The ERC remains at the 75-90% percentile, and Elevated Fire Weather conditions will be possible at times through the period. The chance of wetting rains will be very low today, then increasing rain chances expected beginning Wednesday with the highest chance expected Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 79 96 79 94 / 0 20 40 50 Victoria 77 100 76 97 / 20 30 20 70 Laredo 77 103 77 99 / 0 20 0 20 Alice 75 100 76 98 / 0 20 20 50 Rockport 81 94 80 92 / 10 20 60 60 Cotulla 75 103 77 99 / 0 0 0 20 Kingsville 76 99 77 96 / 0 20 20 50 Navy Corpus 82 91 82 89 / 0 20 40 60

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.