textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 548 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

- Moderate to Extreme risk of heat-related impacts across a large portion of South Texas today through early next week.

- Heat Advisory in effect from Noon to 6 PM today.

- Low to very low rain chances today through early next week, then increasing a medium chance across the Victoria Crossroads by mid week.

- Elevated Fire Weather conditions today and remains possible through Monday, mainly across the inland Coastal Plains, Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Main concern through the weekend continues to be the heat. Heat indices up to 114 are forecast across many locations this afternoon. Thus, a Heat Advisory has been issued from Noon to 6 pm for most of S TX. A few places may briefly exceed 115, but most places will remain below 115. Major to extreme risk of heat related impacts will continue into early next week and Heat Advisories may be needed at times.

Less moisture and mid level ridging across northeastern Mexico and west TX will lead to very low rain chances today. Rain chances increase slightly Sunday in response to the ridge being nudged northward as an inverted trough shifts west across S TX. This will allow for a slightly more active sea breeze. Isolated sea breeze convection is expected early next week with the potential for increased activity by mid to late week. Models have been varying on which day has the best chance of rain, but it does look like sometime between Wednesday and Friday may see medium to high rain chances in response to a surge of deep moisture from the gulf waters combined with a mid level short wave.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 548 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Early morning MVFR ceilings have developed over the inland Coastal Plains, mainly impacting ALI. We'll see these ceilings continue over the next couple of hours before lifting. VFR conditions prevail elsewhere. Southeasterly winds will increase later this morning through afternoon, sustained 15-20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots, strongest at CRP. Winds decrease to around 10 knots overnight. Given the similar conditions tomorrow morning, also put TEMPOs for MVFR ceilings at ALI at the end of the forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

A fresh (BF 5) breeze is expected south of Port Aransas across Corpus Christi and Baffin Bays and out to 20 nautical miles this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the bays and nearshore waters south of Port Aransas through this evening. Otherwise, a moderate (BF 4) onshore flow is expected Sunday through the middle of next week. Low rain chances can be expected this weekend into early next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Minimum relative humidity is expected to drop to around 25% across the inland Coastal Plains, Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains this afternoon. Wind speeds do not increase until this evening across these areas at the same time RH values increase. However, due to the dryness and the ERC at 75-90% percentile, a Fire Danger Statement has been issued for this afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible at times through the period. The chance of wetting rains returns Monday, with up to a 40% chance across the Victoria Crossroads. Otherwise, rain chances will be low through early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 97 80 96 80 / 10 0 10 0 Victoria 100 77 99 77 / 10 10 10 0 Laredo 106 79 104 78 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 103 77 101 76 / 10 0 10 0 Rockport 94 82 94 82 / 10 0 20 0 Cotulla 105 78 103 77 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 101 78 99 77 / 0 0 10 0 Navy Corpus 92 83 91 83 / 0 0 20 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ230>234-240>247-342>344-346.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for GMZ231-232-250.