textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 517 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

- Low rain chance (20-40%) today will increase to medium to high (60-90%) Sunday as a cold front pushes through Sunday night into Monday

- Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms and excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4) on Sunday, most likely over Victoria Crossroads

- Minor coastal flooding and increased rip current risk early next week, causing dangerous swimming conditions

- Hazardous seas late this afternoon through Monday, Gale Watch in effect

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1216 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

A shortwave extending off the base of the main mid-level trough into South Texas today, will combine with increasing moisture to give a low (20-40%) chance of showers, moving west to east through the day. Mid-level lapse rates are weak at less than 6 C/km, although the trough will contain plenty of PVA, the parcel won't have much positive buoyancy to go off of, therefore limiting thunderstorm potential.

Saturday night through Sunday, surface troughing and moisture increases as a cold front approaches, leaving South Texas in the warm sector favorable for shower and thunderstorm development. Most favorable conditions continue to focus over the Victoria Crossroads into SE Texas, but there are some model discrepancies just how far south a cluster of strong storms will push through ahead of the front Sunday afternoon into evening. Given the above normal moisture, surface troughing, and FROPA, There is a medium to high (50-90%) chance of showers and thunderstorms for the aforementioned timeframe. The increase instability (1-2k CAPE) and sufficient effective shear greater than 40 knots, there is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for strong to severe storms over the Coastal Plains Sunday, with a potential mixed mode of discrete cells and clusters. Clusters appear more likely in my opinion with the west- southwesterly shear aligned closely parallel to the front.

The cold front will push through Sunday night into Monday morning, leading to rain-free but hazardous sea conditions heading into the middle of next week. Low (20-30%) rain chances return late next work week as onshore flow and coastal troughing occurs. Models are in good agreement with total rainfall generally less than 1.50", locally higher amounts up to 4.0" more likely seen over the Victoria Crossroads. The Victoria Crossroads is in a marginal risk of excessive rainfall (level 1 of 4). Mostly cloudy skies and strong northeasterly winds will bring max temperatures down to the low to mid 60s across South Texas. High temperatures in the 70s return the latter half of next week as onshore flow returns.

Minor coastal flooding is likely early next week as onshore flow strengthens, followed by strong northeasterly flow (Ekman transport) Sunday night. Swell periods also increase to 7-8 seconds but we are actively leaving the new moon phase. The rip current risk will also increase, causing more dangerous swimming conditions. In addition to beach conditions, hazardous seas are expected late this afternoon through Monday, with a Small Craft Advisory and Gale Watch (after front) in effect. Marine products will likely need to be extended.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 517 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

High based showers will lead to isolated rain chances for the Rio Grande Plains this morning and as such, KCOT was given PROB30 for light rain. After 18Z, scattered -SHRA/-TSRA increases from KALI to KVCT with KVCT seeing this probability for precipitation continue through 06Z. Winds will generally be out the SE around 15 kt gusting to 25 kt. Winds decrease to 5-10 kt overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 1216 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Moderate southeasterly flow today will strengthen to fresh to strong (BF 5-6) late this afternoon through Sunday in advance of an approaching cold front. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all waters with this timeframe. Low rain chances return today, increasing to high chances Sunday and Sunday night. A cold front will push through Sunday night, leading to strong to near Gale force northeasterly winds through Monday, a Gale Watch is in effect. At least Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue through Tuesday evening. Thereafter, winds shift out of the east to southeast at moderate to fresh strength. Low rain chances of 20 to 40 percent will persist through next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1216 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions are not anticipated through the forecast period. Low rain chances today will increase to medium to high chances (60-90%) for showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Sunday evening, keeping fuel moisture higher than normal. Another cold front will pass through Sunday night into early Monday morning, bringing a breezy northeasterly wind shift in the wake. However, temperatures will remain cooler than normal and lead to minimum relative humidity above 40 percent.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 78 68 80 56 / 30 30 70 50 Victoria 73 62 71 52 / 40 50 90 50 Laredo 78 67 81 58 / 20 0 0 0 Alice 78 65 81 54 / 30 20 60 40 Rockport 76 67 75 56 / 40 40 80 60 Cotulla 76 64 77 55 / 30 10 30 0 Kingsville 78 66 81 56 / 30 20 60 50 Navy Corpus 77 71 78 60 / 30 30 70 70

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.