textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 122 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Minor coastal flooding is expected through at least Monday night, and could continue through the middle of the week.

- Low chances of rain today; persists through the week

- A cold front will sweep through South Texas at the conclusion of the week bringing potential impacts

DISCUSSION

Issued at 122 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Some residual energy from Hurricane Simon over in the Pacific will look to ride around the periphery of the ridge today with South Texas on the right flank of the area of lower pressure. Thanks to onshore flow ahead of this we have already started to see deep moisture pooling into the area (PWATs 2.0"+ in the region. The presence of these to factors will likely lead to a low chance for unsettled weather in the region Monday. Forcing is relatively weak therefore would expect for the activity to be brief if it can get going. Coverage will likely not be widespread as guidance is portraying activity being confined to the northern Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. We have observed some showers in the Gulf waters in BROs CWA already tracking this way.

After today, we will back to expecting daily seabreeze convection paired with weak shortwaves passing through that will lead to low chances for activity through the week. Warm temperatures will remain in place until Thursday. Guidance (GFS,Canadian,ECMWF) has came into better agreement that a cold front is expected to swing through the region at the conclusion of the week. The timing will appears to be late Friday into early Saturday. The strength of the front still remains a bit in question. With the differences in the guidance remaining confidence unfortunately will remain low at this time, though we continue to monitoring the trends. Things will become more clear when we are in range of the higher resolution models.

Otherwise, today we likely still see continued minor coastal flooding in the region. Will have to continue to monitor this possibility over the next couple of days as we should begin a downtrend, though an extension will remain in play.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 122 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

As moisture increases, low level clouds also become more prominent. While we are still looking for primarily VFR CIGS tonight, periods of MVFR are possible, especially around sunrise. Breezy southeast winds are expected in the afternoon. A few showers are possible near CRP and VCT tomorrow, but chances are below about 20% so will not include in TAF at this time.

MARINE

Issued at 122 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Generally moderate to occasionally fresh (BF 4-5) onshore flow will persist through much of the week, with moderate rain chances continuing as moisture increases. A cold front is expected to move across the waters late Friday into Saturday, shifting winds to the northeast and increasing to fresh to strong levels, with brief near- gale conditions possible and Small Craft Advisory conditions expected. Elevated seas are also expected, while rain chances diminish if the wake of the front.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 122 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Elevated fire weather conditions will not be expected through the week. Above normal moisture in the region and relatively light winds will limit concerns. A cold front is expected to move through South Texas this weekend, bringing cooler temperatures and potentially stronger northerly winds. Despite the possibility of elevated winds behind the front, relatively high humidity, periodic rain chances, and low ERC percentiles should limit overall fire weather concerns. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 93 79 93 79 / 10 10 10 0 Victoria 95 76 96 76 / 40 10 20 10 Laredo 98 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 95 76 97 76 / 10 0 0 0 Rockport 91 80 91 80 / 30 10 10 0 Cotulla 98 77 100 77 / 10 10 0 0 Kingsville 93 77 94 77 / 10 10 10 0 Navy Corpus 89 82 89 82 / 20 10 10 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ245-342>347- 442-443-447.

GM...None.