textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 649 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

- Moderate to Major heat risk today through next Thursday

- Low confidence marginal risk of severe storms this evening over the western Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains

- Monitoring potential coastal flooding with water nearing the beach roads due to persistent onshore flow and swell periods 7-8 seconds

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

A cloudy and hazy morning earlier today, will be followed by breaks in sunshine and warmer conditions this afternoon. Heating will be largely dependent on how long these clouds linger but current temperatures remain on track with the forecast. A moderate to major heat risk will spread out across the region through next Thursday, with greatest impacts over the Brush Country, as 90-99th percentile 850mb temperatures help aid in above normal temperatures at the surface. Heat indices will peak between 105-110 degrees Sunday through Tuesday out west, and up to 100-105 elsewhere today and Wednesday. All are urged to practice heat safety: limit outdoor exposure, drink plenty of water, and look before you lock!

Although confidence is low, there is a marginal risk over the western Brush Country and Rio Grande Plains between 5-11 PM tonight. There is a low chance for showers and storms to generate over Mexico along the dryline in place, and for a mid-level shortwave to stretch southward and contribute PVA. Looking at HREF and CAM guidance, there is good agreement and significant surface inhibition with a stout cap 900-800mb. If storms were to impact over South Texas tonight, they will need to be initiated westward and remain elevated as they approach the Rio Grande. If storms are able to remain elevated above the cap, the environment can be conducive with MUCAPE around 2500 J/kg, effective shear over 50 knots, and DCAPE over 1000 J/kg, posing a conditional threat to large hail and damaging winds. Lately, solutions that reflect cells surviving into South Texas have not performed well. But we'll continue to keep a close eye.

A moderate to major heat risk will spread out across the region through next Thursday, with greatest impacts over the Brush Country, as 90-99th percentile 850mb temperatures help aid in above normal temperatures at the surface. Heat indices will peak between 105-110 degrees Sunday through Tuesday out west, and up to 100-105 elsewhere today and Wednesday. All are urged to practice heat safety: limit outdoor exposure, drink plenty of water, and look before you lock! Cloud cover increases the latter half of next week thanks to an approaching cold front. The cold front will linger across Texas before passing through South Texas next weekend, decreasing temperatures and bringing our next low rain chances (20-30%) Friday through Saturday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 649 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

MVFR ceilings are expected to creep in to the east over the next few hours. This will also spread to the west there after before further deteriorating to IFR to LIFR conditions mainly at the eastern terminals (ALI,VCT,CRP). Some of these conditions will likely spread to COT and potentially LRD though confidence in reaching LRD at this time is low. This will be for ceilings and some patchy to dense fog. Conditions improve during the mid to late morning hours back to MVFR. VFR conditions will move in across the area by the early afternoon hours.

MARINE

Issued at 142 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

A gentle to moderate onshore breeze will persist through Wednesday with seas generally between 2 to 5 feet. Our next cold front looks to come through next weekend, returning low rain chances of 20-30%.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 142 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

No elevated fire weather conditions are expected through next week. Minimum relative humidity will drop as low as 25-35 percent over the Brush Country each afternoon, but winds will likely remain below elevated criteria. Temperatures will heat up next week with highs in the triple digits over the Brush Country through Wednesday before a cold front approaches South Texas late in the week. The cold front will then push through next weekend, leading to low rain chances, increased cloud cover, and a decrease in temperatures.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 74 88 74 89 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 72 90 72 91 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 74 101 74 101 / 20 0 0 0 Alice 72 94 72 96 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 74 85 75 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 72 100 74 101 / 20 0 0 0 Kingsville 73 92 72 94 / 10 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 75 83 75 84 / 0 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.