textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 154 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

- A Flood Watch is in effect through Thursday morning.

- Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) of excessive rainfall/flash flooding through Wednesday morning, mainly near the coast. Rainfall rates of 2-4"/hour are possible, with rainfall totals forecast to average 4-8 inches across much of the Coastal Plains. - Trough of low pressure could meander into the northwest Gulf late Tuesday, where environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical storm. NHC highlights a 40% chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours. In response, moderate to strong winds could develop over the coastal waters, with gusts possibly to Gale.

- Moderate to high risk of rip currents each day. Elevated tides may lead to coastal flooding, especially on Wednesday/Thursday.

- A Moderate to Major (levels 2-3 of 4) Heat Risk is forecast Thursday and Friday. Heat Advisories may be needed.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 154 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

We have now made it into the prolonged and potentially significant heavy rainfall event we've been messaging, as a deep tropical airmass blankets the region. A slow-moving frontal boundary settling southward, combined with an upper-level disturbance lifting out of northern Mexico and the remnants of former eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Cristina, will support repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms capable of producing excessive rainfall and dangerous flash flooding. Atmospheric moisture content will reach anomalously high levels for mid-June, with PWATs climbing into the 2.30-2.75 inch range, approaching or exceeding daily climatological records. Our special 12Z sounding this morning indicated ~2.50 inches which is roughly 3 standard deviations above normal for this time of year, with our 18Z sounding values coming in at ~2.40 inches. This deeply saturated tropical profile will allow for an extremely efficient rainfall-producing environment, where storms will be capable of rainfall rates between 2-4 inches per hour, with isolated rates approaching 5 inches per hour at times. Weak steering flow and persistent low- level convergence along the aforementioned boundary will favor slow-moving and training convection, particularly across the northern Coastal Plains, Victoria Crossroads, and near the coast.

As the upper-level disturbance gradually lifts northeastward through Tuesday and Wednesday, models continue to indicate the development of a weak surface low near the Texas coast that may eventually move northward through the western Gulf. The eventual track and intensity of this low will play a major role in determining the duration and placement of the heaviest rainfall. Current guidance favors a track close enough to the coast to prolong periods of heavy rain, especially across the Coastal Plains and Coastal Bend, where repeated bands of convection will likely persist through midweek. NHC has indicated a medium formation chance over the next 48 hours (40%) and over the next 7 days (50%).

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, rainfall totals through Wednesday are forecast to average 4-8 inches across much of the Coastal Plains and areas along and south of Laredo-to-Victoria line, with widespread amounts of 2-4 inches farther inland and northwest. Localized totals approaching or exceeding 10 inches remain possible where persistent training bands develop. WPC continues to highlight much of the CWA in a Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) for excessive rainfall and flash flooding through at least early Wednesday morning, emphasizing the increasing potential for significant and potentially life-threatening flash flooding. This will particularly be the case in urban areas, low-lying locations, and places experiencing repeated rounds of heavy rainfall as rainfall intensities of this magnitude will quickly overwhelm drainage systems and flash flood guidance thresholds. Small creeks and streams may rise rapidly, and localized river flooding is increasingly likely as runoff accumulates through the week.

Aside from the flooding threat, periods of gusty southeasterly winds are possible near the coast, particularly Tuesday night through Thursday night as the aforementioned coastal low evolves over the western Gulf. The exact magnitude of the wind threat remains dependent on the eventual organization and track of the low, though locally hazardous marine conditions, such as elevated tides, coastal flooding, and a moderate to high risk of rip currents, are expected along area beaches. Beachgoers are encouraged to exercise caution and avoid jetties and piers where rip currents are often strongest.

Temperatures through midweek will generally remain near to slightly below seasonal normals due to extensive cloud cover and widespread rainfall. However, conditions will remain very humid, and any breaks in rainfall later this week could allow heat indices to quickly rebound across inland areas. The greatest risk appears to be Thursday, as widespread heat indices of 110-115 degrees are forecast, with portions of the Coastal Bend potentially reaching 115- 120 degrees. Lingering moisture and additional disturbances aloft may continue to support isolated to scattered showers into the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 154 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage through the TAF cycle. Heavy rainfall will contribute to IFR/LIFR visibility and ceilings. Otherwise, VFR to MVFR conditions are expected through 21Z, when MVFR ceilings and visibility will prevail. Conditions will further deteriorate late tonight into the early morning hours, with IFR/LIFR conditions expected.

MARINE

Issued at 154 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) onshore flow will persist through the next couple of days before increasing to fresh and possibly strong (BF 5-6) by midweek. There is a medium chance (40%) for tropical development as a disturbance currently over northeastern Mexico moves out over the western Gulf sometime during the next 48 hours. This could produce stronger winds than currently forecast if it develops. Additionally, current seas of 3-4 feet will increase to 5- 9 feet in response to this possible tropical development. Expect widespread showers and storms through at least midweek. However, lingering moisture and additional disturbances aloft may continue to support isolated to scattered showers into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 77 82 75 90 / 90 90 70 40 Victoria 74 82 74 88 / 90 90 70 50 Laredo 74 85 73 94 / 90 80 20 0 Alice 74 81 73 90 / 90 90 50 30 Rockport 79 85 78 90 / 90 90 80 40 Cotulla 73 85 73 93 / 80 70 10 0 Kingsville 75 80 73 89 / 100 90 60 30 Navy Corpus 79 85 78 90 / 90 90 80 40

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ229>234-239>247- 342>347-442-443-447.

GM...None.