textproduct: Corpus Christi

UPDATE

Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Guidance is in good agreement this morning that a cluster of showers and thunderstorms over Mexico, currently seen on radar and satellite, will move eastward across South Texas this morning and afternoon. There remains a marginal risk of severe storms, primarily for damaging winds and large hail, as well as a slight (level 2 of 4) risk of flash flooding. A large swath of the Coastal Bend will see convection around noon with most of the rainfall clearing by 6 PM this evening.

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 637 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

- Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of strong to severe storms Saturday

-Flood Watch in effect area-wide through Monday as multiple rounds of storms bring a marginal to slight risk of flash flooding each day.

-Risk of river flooding this weekend with more rounds of storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 120 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

As of 11:20 PM, we are monitoring a couple at areas with storms. There is a line of storms that continues tracking southwards towards our CWA. Concurrently, we also have a couple of storms to the south in tracking north and west of our area in Mexico tracking southeast. If the the storms combine and grow upscale we could be dealing a unfavorable scenario. Will continue to monitor this overnight. The likely timeframe for convection to begin will be around 12-13Z beginning out west and tracking east. Guidance has a cluster of storms congealing into a line of storms and progressing to east through the day. Some clustering of storms around the line will still be likely leading to widespread heavy rainfall across the area. With the above normal moisture present, very efficient rainfall rates will be expected. This will allow for a continued threat for flash flooding given anteceding conditions of already saturated soils. While there is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms today, as previously mentioned given the abundance of cloud cover it will be a little more difficult for storms to become strong to severe. It won't be out of the question however, will monitor this threat through the day. Majority of the region remains in slight risk for excessive rainfall. The expected totals with storms today will likely be in the neighborhood of 2-3 inches, though locally higher amounts will be possible. Activity will linger through Sunday afternoon as a disturbance/potential surface low will gradually progress to the east. We will continue to monitor our next chance of rain, which will likely be around the middle of next week. This could lead to another round of heavy rain producing showers and storms further increasing potential flooding concerns given already saturated soils. As of this cycle, WPC has outlooked all of South Texas in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Be sure to check back for future updates as this is still days out. Temperatures will be in the 80s through the end of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 637 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

The lack of convection during the early morning hours allowed for low ceilings to develop over the inland Coastal Plains, impacting ALI with IFR/LIFR ceilings and VCT with MVFR ceilings, as well as COT. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms on the Mexico side of the Rio Grande is slowly moving eastward and will continue through South Texas through this morning and afternoon. TEMPOs have been updated to reflect greatest timeframe for direct terminal impacts. There is a marginal risk of severe storms, posing a threat for damaging winds and large hail. Outside of gusty downpours, winds should be generally light out of the east to southeast around 10 knots or less. Rain chances decreases this evening and not confident enough to include in the forecast at this time as much will be dependent on the progression of storms through the day.

MARINE

Issued at 120 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Gentle to moderate E-SE winds will prevail today through the weekend over the waters. Brief periods of gusty and erratic winds (and elevated seas) will be possible in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Thunderstorm chances will be high (60-80%) Saturday and Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 85 72 84 72 / 80 70 50 20 Victoria 85 68 83 68 / 70 60 50 30 Laredo 86 70 89 71 / 70 20 10 30 Alice 85 70 85 69 / 80 60 40 10 Rockport 88 74 87 74 / 70 70 60 30 Cotulla 86 68 88 70 / 70 40 10 10 Kingsville 84 71 85 70 / 80 60 40 10 Navy Corpus 86 75 85 76 / 70 60 50 20

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Monday evening for TXZ229>234-239>247- 342>347-442-443-447.

GM...None.