textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 623 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

- Potential elevated fire weather conditions over the Brush Country and inland Coastal Plains daily through at least Friday

- Medium to high chance (50-80%) of fog over the Coastal Plains during the early morning hours of today, lower chances Wednesday

- Dry and abnormally warm weather continues through Friday, before a cold front nears South Texas heading into the weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

First off, there remains a medium to high chance for dense fog developing over the Coastal Plains early this morning. Surface high pressure centered over the northern Gulf, leading to weak southeasterly winds, in combination of a weak LLJ and mostly clear skies, sets favorable conditions for radiational cooling and fog or very low clouds. Fog will dissipate and clouds will rise/break apart by the mid-late morning hours. We'll have additional chances for fog early Wednesday morning, but winds will be just a tad stronger.

An amplified ridge will move over the southern CONUS mid-late this week and will remain the dominant weather controlling feature into early next week. Rain chances will remain negligible and max temperatures through Friday will range from around 80 along the coast to the low-mid 90s over the Brush Country.

Heading into the weekend, models are starting to converge on a similar situation with a cold front moving southward across Texas. The GFS has trended more towards the earlier ECMWF/CMC solutions, with a cold front pushing into South Texas Friday night into Saturday, before retreating northward quickly Saturday night into Sunday. Although a surface front could act as a lifting mechanism, moisture will struggle to build with PWAT values around normal (~1") and a stout cap will likely be in place, limiting any rain chances to less than 10%. The front meandering over the region will lead to increased cloud cover and occasional offshore winds to potentially limit max temperatures to the 80s. In fact, NBM has a 60-90% chance for max temperatures less than 90 over the Brush Country Saturday and Sunday. But these temps can vary easily whether the front holds off more to the north or has a stronger push southward, we are still 6 days out.

Lastly, elevated fire weather conditions will likely occur each afternoon and evening over the Brush Country through at least Friday when relative humidity drops below 30% in junction with winds or wind gusts around 20 mph or greater.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Currently have a mix of VFR/MVFR conditions out west to MVFR/LIFR eastern terminals. VSBYs have been bouncy overnight but could still have down to 1/4SM at times through the rest of the morning. Afterwich VFR conditions will return with southeast winds. Tonight another round of fog is likely but is not expected to be quite as dense.

MARINE

Issued at 231 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

A light to gentle southeasterly breeze (BF 2-3) continues through today. Winds increase to a gentle to moderate flow tonight into Wednesday, continuing through next weekend with an occasional fresh breeze for bays and nearshore waters south of Port Aransas. Rain chances are expected to remain negligible, only a 10% chance Saturday, with wave heights between 2-4 feet.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 231 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Persistent ridging will keep abnormally warm conditions across South Texas through at least Friday. Relative humidity will consistently drop to 20-30% over the westward Coastal Plains and Brush Country each afternoon, with energy release components (ERCs) in the 70-90th percentiles and dry to critically dry fuels. Frequent wind gusts over 20 mph behind the seabreeze while RH is below 30% warrants a mention of elevated fire weather conditions. However, today's winds will be weaker than yesterday and therefore have not issued any fire weather product at this time, this will need to be closely monitored. Similar conditions are expected through Friday with slightly stronger winds. Another cold front will approach South Texas this weekend, models are in closer agreement that the front will extend briefly into South Texas Friday night into Saturday before retreating northward by Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 84 66 84 66 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 85 63 85 62 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 93 66 95 66 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 90 63 91 64 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 80 67 81 67 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 92 64 94 65 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 88 64 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 78 69 78 68 / 0 0 0 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.