textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 519 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

- Strong Arctic blast trending earlier with passage late Friday night into Saturday morning

- Low chance for a rain/freezing rain/drizzle mix Saturday night into Sunday morning, best chances inland over the Victoria Crossroads

- Extremely cold wind chills as low as 5-15 degrees early Sunday morning and Monday morning

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1209 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

A weak coastal surface trough ahead of a stalled frontal boundary to our north and a mid-level shortwave over the waters will contribute low to medium (20-50%) chances of showers over the Coastal Plains today, with much of the activity focus over the waters. Above normal temperatures will continue through Friday, a lull in rain chances Thursday will raise back to 20-40% Friday afternoon as the arctic front approaches.

The strong Arctic front has trended earlier with the exception of the 0Z ECMWF run, bringing the surge through South Texas late Friday night into Saturday morning. Temperatures will continue to cool through the day Saturday following the passage, bringing freezing temperatures into the northern counties as early as before midnight. Pacific moisture from the deep mid-level trough will usher in above-normal moisture for the time of the year and produce a medium to high (40-80%) chance for showers during the day Saturday.

Medium rain chances will continue into Saturday night, tapering off Sunday morning as the trough shifts eastward over the Central CONUS. This time window is the most impactful time to focus on! Currently, moisture seems to hang on long enough to coincide for temperatures to drop below freezing and create at least a low chance for a freezing rain/drizzle mix over majority of South Texas. Models continue to trend colder (with the exception of the 0Z ECMWF run). Extremely cold wind chill values also are expected, dropping into the single digits over the Victoria area and into the teens elsewhere, likely needing an Extreme Cold Watch/Warning. A reminder that any ice accumulation is our Winter Storm Watch/Warning criteria here in South Texas. Multiple freezing nights are expected stretching from Saturday night through Monday night, with northern locations extending down into the upper teens for their lows.

While the forecast can and will change, all are urged to stay informed on the latest weather information from trusted sources and start preparing now to keep your place warm and have all your essentials in case of any power outages.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 519 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

VFR conditions have unexpectedly continued this morning, except for LRD where ceilings are MVFR. Still expect MVFR ceilings will develop this morning, with periods of of IFR ceilings possible during the morning as noted by TEMPOs. A low (20-40%) chance of showers are expected through today. MVFR/IFR to periods LIFR conditions are expected to develop early Thursday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 1209 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore flow the rest of tonight, with a fresh breeze across the offshore waters. Winds diminish to a light to gentle (BF 2-3) breeze this afternoon. Onshore flow begins to increase Friday ahead of a strong Arctic cold front. Winds are expected to shift to a northerly direction and increase to a strong to near gale (BF 6-7) flow by Saturday morning behind the cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions expected through the weekend into early next week. A Gale Watch may be necessary. Moderate to high (70-90%) rain chances over the waters today thanks due surface trough and mid-level disturbance. Rain chances diminish Thursday and Friday, then increase to a moderate to high once again over the weekend as the arctic front pushes through. Temperatures will be around freezing along the coast with wind chill values feeling well below freezing during late night into early morning hours Saturday night through Monday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1209 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Minimum relative humidity will remain above 30% through the forecast with light winds shifting northerly and becoming strong in wake of an arctic blast Saturday morning. The extreme drop in temperatures and above-normal moisture will limit the fire weather threat. Elevated fire weather conditions are not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 72 60 76 62 / 30 10 10 0 Victoria 72 55 76 57 / 40 10 10 0 Laredo 72 51 77 60 / 10 0 0 0 Alice 73 57 79 60 / 30 10 10 0 Rockport 69 58 71 61 / 40 20 10 0 Cotulla 72 51 76 57 / 10 0 0 0 Kingsville 72 58 78 60 / 40 10 10 0 Navy Corpus 70 62 71 65 / 50 20 10 0

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.