textproduct: Corpus Christi

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1151 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

- Overnight/early morning fog across the Coastal Plains early this week.

- Borderline Elevated Fire Weather conditions during this afternoon this week, mainly across the Brush Country.

- Low rain chances mid to late week, increases to medium chances (40-55%) next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1151 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

An upper-level ridge will move eastward from Mexico across South Texas into the Gulf through Tuesday, allowing for lighter winds at night and additional chances for fog, especially inland. Looking into midweek, a positively-tilted mid-level trough will progress across the Central Plains. An axis of positive vorticity advection (PVA) and greater than 75th percentile PWATs of 1.25-1.5" will allow for at least a low chance of showers over the Coastal Plains Wednesday.

Heading into next weekend, a much more amplified mid to upper level trough will dig deep into the SW CONUS, developing a cut-off low over Baja California and further enhancing moisture across South Texas. A cold front will also approach from the Hill Country Saturday or Saturday night, losing its progression strength but acting as a lifting mechanism for South Texas along with an inverted surface trough. These mechanisms in combination of near 99th percentile moisture (PWATs around 1.5"), warrant at least a medium (40-55%) chance for showers and thunderstorms with CAPE over 1500 J/kg this upcoming weekend.

Temperatures will remain above normal and consistent through Friday with highs from the low 80s east to low-mid 90s west, and lows in the mid to upper 60s. Temperatures drop a few degrees this upcoming weekend due to increased cloud coverage and rain chances. Borderline elevated fire weather conditions will exist most afternoons this work week over the Rio Grande Plains when RH briefly drops below or around 30 percent along with sustained winds of 15-20 mph and higher gusts.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Morning fog has lifted and CIGs have risen to VFR across South Texas. VFR conditions will continue through about 02Z this evening with southeasterly winds around 15 knots sustained, gusting to around 25 knots. Winds diminish later tonight and ceilings drop to MVFR by 06Z over the Coastal Plains, later overnight for COT and LRD. Conditions worsen from ALI to VCT with IFR/LIFR ceilings and vsby with fog developing again as the environment reflects very similarly to early this morning. VFR conditions return by the end of the forecast.

MARINE

Issued at 1151 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

A gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore breeze will continue through Monday night. Onshore winds are expected to increase to a moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) breeze by Tuesday and continue through the remainder of the week. There is a low 10-30% chance of showers Monday night through Friday, increasing to a medium chance next weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1151 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Onshore flow will maintain elevated humidity across South Texas. However, fuels remain cured, thus elevated fire weather conditions are possible, especially Monday and Tuesday, across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country, when minimum RH values will be in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Winds may strengthen to critical levels Tuesday. but this will also increase minimum relative humidity values through the remainder of the week. Low rain chances return mid to late work week, increasing to medium chances this upcoming weekend, limiting fire weather concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Corpus Christi 65 82 66 84 / 0 0 0 10 Victoria 59 82 62 84 / 0 0 0 10 Laredo 64 90 65 92 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 63 86 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 65 79 67 80 / 0 0 10 10 Cotulla 63 89 63 92 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 63 85 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 67 76 68 77 / 0 0 10 20

CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.