textproduct: Cleveland

SYNOPSIS

A cold front will move east across the area this afternoon. High pressure will build into the region tonight and Wednesday behind the cold front. Another cold front will move southeast across the area on Thursday. High pressure will return for Friday and then depart to the east coast on Saturday and Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

As of 18Z, the cold front is located from near Findlay to near Sandusky. As the cold front progresses eastward across the area, should see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms develop along this front, with conditions improving immediately behind it. Severe weather is unlikely, though brief, heavy rain may be possible with a very low chance for some gusty winds to 30-40 mph and small hail. There is decent amount of MUCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range, though shear is poor and hodograph profiles actually has negative SRH (not good for severe storms). A waterspout was reported in the Sandusky Bay, likely due to the developing storm interacting with the lake/land interface. A Special Marine Warning was issued, as well as a special weather statement for the possibility for landspout-type funnels to occur along the cold front.

Once the cold front is through, it should be relatively quiet weather through the rest of the near term forecast as high pressure builds in, with mostly sunny/clear skies, highs in the 80s, lows in the 60s, and lower humidity.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

A weak, cold front moves southeast across the region on Thursday, with diurnally-driven isolated showers and thunderstorms expected mainly during the afternoon/evening, mainly before sunset (so unlikely to spoil any firework shows). Thursday could be a sneaky, low-end severe weather threat, as a decent overlap of modest instability and marginally supportive deep-layer shear is present. Machine-learning guidance from ENS/GEFS both marginally support a low-end severe weather as well. High pressure continues to become further entrenched to the region through the short term period, with continued nice summer weather. A few diurnally-driven isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday/Friday afternoon.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

High pressure drifts to the east coast on Saturday, with temperatures warming into the low 90s on Saturday and Sunday. Humidity will be on the rise, but heat indices are likely to remain under 100. Unless there are big changes to the forecast, it's unlikely we'll need a Heat Advisory. Precipitation chances rise to the 30-50% range Sunday afternoon through Tuesday within the warm air advection regime.

AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

Lingering showers and thunderstorms near KCAK will depart over the next hour as the cold front pushes out of the region. That will allow drier air and VFR conditions to spread southward through the entire region as high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley and southern Great Lakes regions. This high will remain in control tonight and Wednesday, so mostly clear skies and VFR will prevail, with just FEW to SCT afternoon cumulus. The exception is patchy fog potential around KCAK and KYNG tonight. Confidence is low, so kept visibilities MVFR in the 07-12Z timeframe, but periods of lower visibilities are possible.

W to NW winds of 5-10 knots are expected tonight through Wednesday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in isolated showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, mainly VFR expected through Saturday. Non-VFR may return in scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday, particularly across the western half of the area.

MARINE

Generally quiet marine conditions are expected across Lake Erie this week and into the weekend with the overall flow remaining relatively light and less than 15 knots. A weak cold front will weak cold front will drop south across the Lake on Thursday, with northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots possible which could usher in waves of 2 feet and possibly isolated pockets up to 3 feet.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.