textproduct: Cleveland

SYNOPSIS

A cold front will move east through the area today and linger across the Ohio Valley as high pressure builds from the north on Friday. This front will gradually lift back north on Saturday, followed by a cold front on Sunday. High pressure will build back into the area on Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

A broad upper level trough is over the Upper Great Lakes region this morning. An area of low pressure is over Lower Michigan and tracking east this morning. A weak surface trough is pushing eastward across the central basin of Lake Erie with a few scattered showers and thunderstorm. A cold front is currently located across southwestern Lower Michigan into northern Indiana. This cold front will push through later today. We will continue to have a chance for a few scattered showers and thunderstorm ahead of the cold front today. High temperatures will climb into the lower and middle 80s this afternoon.

The cold front will settle down towards the Ohio River tonight and stall out. A weak area of high pressure will build over the Great Lakes this evening through Friday with dry weather and comfortable temperatures. Highs on Friday will be in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

The upper level flow will remain psuedo zonal or a slight west- northwest flow this weekend. The stalled out frontal boundary across the Ohio River will lift northward as a warm front late Friday night into early Saturday. This frontal boundary will stall out once again over our area Saturday into Sunday. Scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast Saturday through Sunday. A weak mid level disturbance in the 500 mb flow will track across the Lower Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley region Saturday evening. This disturbance will interact with the stalled surface front and bring a higher chance for POPs Saturday evening. The stalled front may waffle back southward into central Ohio later on Sunday with lower rain chances over northern Ohio and chance POPs across central Ohio. High temperatures this weekend will be in the lower to middle 80s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A weak area of high pressure over southern Quebec and Ontario will build in from the north and northeast on Monday. The weak frontal boundary will be pushed into southern Ohio by Monday. The weather pattern will shift to a hotter forecast by Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. An upper level ridge of high pressure will build across the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valley towards the middle of next week. Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s by the middle of next week. We will keep some slight chance to widely scattered POPs in the forecast early to middle of next week as well.

AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/

VFR conditions will continue for the next few hours for most of the TAF sites. KCAK and KYNG are already seeing IFR ceilings due to plenty of low level moisture from today's precipitation. Those should continue through the early morning hours before lifting to MVFR. All other sites should see MVFR ceilings starting around 09-10Z and lasting through mid morning, around 15Z. There may be some lingering non-VFR ceilings come this morning, so will need to monitor. Outside of ceilings, the TAF period looks to be fairly dry outside of a few possible showers at KCLE come early Friday morning. As the cold front moves through on Thursday, there could be a chance for a few showers, though confidence is low given the dry air moving in the mid levels.

Winds will be south-southwesterly from 5-15 knots through the early morning Thursday. Winds will begin to increase by Thursday morning behind the cold front and veer to be more westerly. Expecting winds to increase to 10-15 knots sustained with gusts above 20 knots. KERI could see higher winds during the day as they veer around due to downsloping. As the cold front departs to the east late Thursday, winds will begin to subside to around 10 knots.

Outlook...VFR expected Friday before Non-VFR chances return Saturday and Sunday in scattered showers and thunderstorms. VFR expected Monday with more scattered showers and thunderstorms and non-VFR conditions starting on Tuesday.

MARINE

Small Craft Advisory is still in effect for Thursday through Thursday night due to increased winds and waves across the lake with a passing cold front. Winds will increase to 20-25 knots sustained with waves building to 5-9 feet across the central and eastern basins of the open waters. For the near shore zones, winds will be around 15-25 knots with waves building to 5-8 feet before subsiding to 3-6 feet. After the low pressure system and cold front move eastward, winds and waves will start to subside across the lake into early Friday. Starting Friday, winds will veer to be out of the north to northeast at 5-10 knots. Expect winds to be fairly light across the lake thereafter through early Sunday. A low pressure system will move through the region on Sunday and winds will increase to 10-15 knots out of the north before shifting to be out of the east on Monday at around 10 knots.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for OHZ010>012-089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ142>144. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ145>149.