textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning. A Frost Advisory has also been issued for lakeshore zones east of Cleveland.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lake effect rain showers will gradually diminish through this morning as high pressure builds across the region and persists through next week. Frost and Freeze conditions are expected tonight.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... The latest radar and satellite imagery reveal a north-south oriented band of lake effect rain showers between the I- 71 and I-77 corridors, aided by a Lake Huron moisture connection and surface convergence. This activity proceeds the arrival of a chilly air mass, characterized by 850 mb temperatures falling near -5 to -6 degrees C later this morning as high pressure builds east into the region. Lake effect rain showers should gradually diminish through this morning as more dry air and subsidence enter the area.

Have gone ahead and upgraded the Freeze Watch area to a Freeze Warning with clear skies and generally light winds expected overnight into Sunday morning. Additionally, have issued a Frost Advisory for Lake County and the Ashtabula and Erie, PA lakeshores. A bit of a tricky Frost/Freeze forecast, especially west of the I-71 corridor and along the northeast lakeshore as an increasing pressure gradient (925 mb winds approaching 10 to 15 knots) and developing land breeze could result in slightly higher surface winds and warmer temperatures. However, given forecast dew points in the upper 20s to lower 30 and a favorable environment for radiative cooling (at least initially), went on the more aggressive side for Frost/Freeze headlines.

Depending on which areas hit Freeze criteria tonight, there is the potential for another round of Frost Sunday night into Monday as the high pressure center slowly shifts east into southeast Ohio, resulting in low temperatures in the low to mid-30s. A gradual warming of temperatures (slightly above normal) and dry conditions are expected through next week as high pressure continues to influence the weather pattern.

AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/

High pressure will build across the area through this afternoon, leading to improving aviation weather. As we approach 12z drier air is gradually working in and most sites have returned to VFR, though some lake effect clouds and showers persist south of the lake. Showers are most prominent across parts of North Central OH, including near MFD, with just a few spotty sprinkles elsewhere. Clouds are in and out of all sites east of TOL/FDY, mainly VFR bases around 040 at this point, though with some pockets of MVFR across parts of North Central OH. Lake effect clouds and any showers are expected to dissipate through early this afternoon, leaving mainly clear and VFR conditions for the remainder of the TAFs. North winds 8-15kt (with a few gusts to 25kt still near Lake Erie, including at CLE and ERI) will diminish to under 7 knots this afternoon, then flip around to the south-southwest while remaining under 7 knots tonight.

Outlook...Mainly VFR expected.

MARINE

Rough marine conditions continue this morning with north winds of 20 to 30 knots and periodic Gale Force gusts. Winds will gradually diminish to less than 15 knots by this afternoon, shifting towards the south to southwest Saturday night into Monday as high pressure slides just south of Lake Erie, 10 to 15 knots. Generally light flow, favoring an east to northeast direction at times, is expected through much of the week as high pressure influences the weather pattern.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for OHZ003-006>011- 013-014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for OHZ012-089. PA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ002-003. Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LEZ142- 143-149. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ144>148.