textproduct: Cleveland

SYNOPSIS

High pressure builds east tonight as a weak low moves across the eastern Great Lakes and lifts a warm front across the local area. Another low will move northeast across the Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday followed by brief high pressure on Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Upper level ridge and surface high pressure will glide to the east tonight as a weak surface low and associated upper shortwave move across the eastern Great Lakes. The low will also lift a warm front east across the region overnight tonight. Given the track of the low expect for most of the forecast area to remain dry through the near term. Some scattered snow showers will be possible for those along the lakeshore late tonight into Monday morning. Another upper level ridge axis will push into the region Monday afternoon and evening providing a period of dry weather through Monday night.

Lows tonight will range between the teens in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania to the lower 20s across Central and Northwest Ohio. Warmer on Monday behind the warm front with highs rising into the upper 30s to lower 40s areawide. Lows Monday night settle in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Another area of low pressure will lift northeast from the Central Plains into the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. Temperatures warm into the mid 40s on Tuesday allowing for precipitation Tuesday afternoon and evening to remain as plain rain. Rain showers will exit the region Wednesday morning as the upper trough skirts to the east. Expect for a dry window Wednesday afternoon and evening as another low/mid level ridge axis moves overhead. Lows Tuesday night will generally settle in the mid 30s. Highs remain in the 40s on Wednesday with overnight lows Wednesday night in the low 30s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Continued warmth and precipitation chances expected through the long term. Aforementioned ridge will gradually move eastward as low pressure approaches the region. Outside of the GFS, most medium/long range models show the surface low reaching the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region Thursday evening and pushing northeast Thursday night into Friday. The upper trough axis is expected to sweep through the region Saturday into Sunday. Will continue to monitor trends with each forecast cycle to adjust timing of PoPs through the end the week as needed. Regardless of exact timing, a prolonged window of temperatures above freezing and numerous chances for rain to end the week will likely lead to a fully melted snowpack and rises on area rivers across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania.

Above average Thursday and Friday with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Slightly cooler on Saturday with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s before high temperatures return to near normal values in the mid 30s by Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

MVFR ceilings have become limited to just NW PA early this morning with high pressure moving east and a low pressure system passing to the north. This system to the north will allow for some mid-level clouds to spread across the northern half of the area over the next few hours and through the overnight. These clouds will move over Lake Erie and may provide the catalyst for some snow showers to develop and push near KERI. Still low confidence in much happening other than a couple flakes and a slightly longer period of MVFR to the terminals. Mid-level clouds and any remaining MVFR should move out by daybreak, allowing for VFR conditions with southwest winds. A weak cold front will move through NW PA this afternoon and may bring some more MVFR ceilings into KERI for late in the TAF period. These MVFR ceilings may expand southwest, but it appears unclear if these will reach KYNG or KCLE.

Outlook...Non-VFR ceilings will continue into Monday night. Non- VFR likely on Tuesday in rain showers and low ceilings with low ceilings lingering through Wednesday. Non- VFR possible in widespread rain showers late Thursday through Friday.

MARINE

Generally quiet marine conditions are expected through Tuesday with offshore flow of 15 knots or less. Winds may increase into the 15 to 20 knot range and briefly shift towards the west behind a cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday and will need to monitor trends in future updates for potential headlines. Otherwise, offshore flow will return on Thursday and persist into Friday, 10 to 15 knots.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.