textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

There are no forecast changes with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lake effect rain/snow showers are expected to continue through Sunday.

2) High pressure will build in for much of next week with drier, seasonable weather expected. Temperatures may rise above normal by late next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... An upper level trough remains over the the northeast CONUS and eastern Great Lakes region this afternoon. A cold northerly will continue over the eastern Great Lakes today through early Sunday. Scattered lake effect rain showers, mixing with wet snow at times, will continue across the Snowbelt of northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania this afternoon through early Sunday. Little to no accumulation is expected with the wet snow. Drier air will start to move into the area later on Sunday which will shut off the lake effect precip. High temperatures today and Sunday will be in the 40s. Tonight's low temperatures will be in the lower to middle 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will build over the region early next week and linger through the end of the week. Mostly quiet and dry weather is in the forecast through much of the upcoming week. High temperatures will start out seasonable in the upper 40s to lower 50s. By the middle and end of the week, high temperatures will be above average in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/

Wide spread MVFR with pockets of IFR/LIFR expected through the TAF period as lake effect showers continue across NE OH and NW PA. Ceilings will generally be 015-025 with winds around 10 knots from 290-320 through the overnight hours. Showers are possible at KTOL, though probability is low given there will be some dry mid-level air beginning to mix in. Sites from KCLE eastward, will see off and on lake effect showers from this afternoon into tomorrow morning. KYNG could briefly drop down to LIFR this afternoon in the showers given the wind direction and upslope. Showers should begin to taper off around 15Z tomorrow morning but non-VFR ceilings will continue. Winds will shift to be 330-360 at 8-12 knots from 15Z onward as well.

Outlook...Non-VFR will linger across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania into Monday afternoon.

MARINE

Small Craft Advisories will remain in effect from the Islands east to Conneaut OH through late Sunday morning and from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY until early Sunday morning. Winds will be from the northwest 15 to 25 knots today into tonight. Northwest winds will relax 10 to 15 knots later on Sunday and continue into Sunday night. Winds will shift from the west 10 knots or less on Monday. By Tuesday, winds will become southwest and increase to 10 to 15 knots. Similar flow will persist through Wednesday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for LEZ144>148. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for LEZ149.