textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes from previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above average temperatures expected through Friday with seasonal temperatures this weekend into early next week.

2) Series of low pressure system will pass through the region through the weekend bringing rain showers on Wednesday and Thursday night, and possible snow showers this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Temperatures through Friday will remain above average due to upper level ridging over the eastern CONUS and persistent west to southwesterly flow over the region. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week with high probability of temperatures hitting the low to mid 60s during the day. This will be in part due to a warm front moving south to north across the area ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Temperatures will moderate slightly behind the low and rain showers on Wednesday, but highs will stay above average in the 50s. Another low pressure system will pass through the Great Lakes region on Friday sweeping a cold front that will drop temperatures to be more seasonal. Highs will be in the 40s on Saturday before dropping into the 30s for Sunday and for the start of next week.

Additional impacts include potential ice jams along rivers and streams throughout the region. Accompanied by the rain showers on Wednesday, there is a possibility of seeing a minor river response as frozen rivers begin to deteriorate and break apart. Will continue to monitor the rivers over the next few days for potential flooding concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Rain showers return to the region on Wednesday as a low pressure system enters into the western Great Lakes. A warm front will lift north through the region Wednesday morning followed by a weak cold front Wednesday afternoon into the evening. There is higher probability of rain showers along the warm front as it pushes into the northern portion of the CWA as that will be where the strongest frontogenesis will be. The cold front will enter from the west in the afternoon and bring more widespread potential for rainfall. Generally, QPF is around a 0.10" to 0.20" for the majority of the area. The highest amounts will be in northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania as they could see 0.30" to 0.40". There will be a minor amounts of CAPE (250-400 J/kg) with this system so can't rule out the possibility of a rumble of thunder or two during the afternoon. Winds will be gusty during the day supported by a 40-50 knot LLJ across the region. Gusts will be around 30 to 40mph with the strongest winds expected in western Ohio during the afternoon with frontal passage.

Another chance for precipitation will be Thursday evening into Friday as another low moves northeast from the mid-Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes. Rain showers will begin late Thursday evening as a warm front passes through and will be followed quickly by the cold front. Any precipitation should end by Friday afternoon/early evening. As colder air moves in behind the system, any lingering rain showers will change over to a rain snow mix, then over to snow completely later in the evening given that precipitation is still occurring. Snow chances will return again on Sunday as an upper level low moves through the Great Lakes region with possible lake enhanced snow showers behind the system to begin next week.

AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/

Fog across Central Ohio has expanded north into CAK this morning with LIFR ceilings also in place at YNG. Most other terminals are experiencing MVFR visibilities with a broken cloud deck at 10-15K feet. Expect visibilities and ceilings to gradually improve this morning, taking a little longer in the east. ERI is likely to maintain a stratus deck, initially MVFR but expected to fall to IFR/LIFR for a period of time this afternoon. A stationary front is expected to settle south across Lake Erie with low ceilings and possibly fog coming in off the lake to ERI. There is uncertainty in how low visibilities will be with this but can not rule out dense fog. Otherwise look for MVFR ceilings to fill in from west to east tonight as a warm front lifts north into the area. Looks like terminals in Ohio will lower to MVFR prior to 12z with rain expanding into TOL prior to 12Z and CLE after 12Z.

Winds will tend to be southerly today except shifting to east/northeast at ERI. Winds will increase into Wednesday morning.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible Wednesday and Thursday night into Friday in rain showers.

MARINE

Southwest winds on Lake Erie will shift out of the northeast this afternoon. Easterly winds increase to 10-20 knots tonight, then veer to southwesterly at 15-20 knots on Wednesday as a warm front lifts north across Lake Erie. Another enhanced window of winds is expected Thursday night into Friday as easterly winds of 15-20 knots become southwesterly at 20-25 knots with the passage of a cold front.

Multiple periods with elevated winds along with much above normal temperatures across the region this week will continue to rot the ice with ice floes expected. Shore ice may break off and any available shipping channels may be closed. It is important for people to stay off the ice this week or risk getting stranded. In addition, the warmer air overspreading the cold lake will result in areas of fog this afternoon and on Wednesday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.