textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Have raised snow amounts in southeastern Cuyahoga and northern Geauga Counties to have isolated 6-7" totals for the ongoing lake enhanced snow event. There is increasing potential for additional winter weather headlines for Tuesday night into Wednesday for NW PA with a clipper system.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lake enhanced snow will continue through tonight across the region. The greatest snow amounts and potential travel impacts will be from North Central Ohio to Northwest PA, mainly in the higher elevations south and east of Cleveland and southeast of Erie.

2) A clipper system will bring another round of snow to the area on Tuesday night into Wednesday. The highest snow amounts and possible travel impacts will be in Northwest PA. Another round of Winter Weather Advisories may be needed.

3) The local area will be on the cold side of a strong low pressure system moving through the Ohio Valley on Thursday. This system will bring widespread accumulating snowfall that could have more travel impacts. While there is increasing confidence in snow as the precipitation type, the low track remains in question, which will have implications on how much snow will be expected.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... An upper trough over the eastern United States is supporting a large low pressure system and blizzard up the East Coast. Locally, this system is more tame allowing for persistent snow showers across the region that has so far produced 1 to 3 inches of snow over the last 24 hours. Some upslope and lake enhancement will accelerate this morning and allow for an additional 2 to 5 inches of snow with higher in NW PA. Some of the 36-to-48 hour snow totals will start to become problematic in the range of 3 to 6 inches in Winter Weather Advisory areas and over 6 inches in the higher hills of Erie County, PA. There was some brief consideration for an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning for Cuyahoga and Geauga Counties, as some isolated totals in the hills of northern Geauga and eastern and southern Cuyahoga could creep over the 6 inch mark. However, the advisory messaging of a potentially messy morning commute today has been out there and the impacts of this longer duration event may not limp higher into the warning category, so have opted to stay put with the current suite of winter headlines for the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A clipper system will dive southeast across the Great Lakes on Tuesday night into Wednesday. This system will bring additional snow to the forecast area with the highest snow expected out east in NW PA. Current forecast totals for PA will be in the range of 2 to 4 inches and there is potential for another set of Winter Weather Advisories to be issued. The one caveat for this system will be the amount of warm air advecting into the region. Overall, the warm nose of temperatures above freezing aloft will likely fall just short of the local forecast area, allowing for only snow. However, these warmer temperatures will cut snow ratios considerably and allow for less efficient snowfall. If these warmer temperatures trend further north, then advisories may be off the table for NW PA.

KEY MESSAGE 3... There has been a persistent signal for a low pressure system to move through the Ohio Valley on Thursday with a broader upper trough moving through the central and eastern United States. The trends over the last couple of model cycles have been that the local area will be on the colder side of this system and any precipitation is favoring snow at this time. While p-type consensus is building, there are still issues with the eventual track of the surface low with overall trends keeping this system fairly far south - to the point where the forecast area could end up staying dry with precipitation staying south, closer to the low path. This system will need to be monitored over the next couple of days, as there is potential for widespread accumulating snowfall and a non-zero chance for impacts and winter headlines.

AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/

MVFR/IFR conditions are expected in lake-enhanced snow and clouds through the majority of the TAF period. Periodic LIFR conditions are possible in pockets of moderate snow this morning, best chance at KCLE/KERI. Snowfall rates should gradually diminish this afternoon into this evening, allowing conditions to improve to at least MVFR. VFR conditions will likely develop at KTOL/KFDY by late afternoon or early evening with VFR spreading to KMFD tonight.

Northwest winds to 12 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 to periodically 30 knots are expected during the day today. Winds will diminish to 8 to 14 knots this evening before diminishing to 10 knots or less at around 06Z Tuesday.

Outlook...Non-VFR in snow and low clouds expected Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Non-VFR may return again on Thursday as another system moves through the region.

MARINE

Breezy northwest winds in response to deep low pressure off the New England coast are expected today. The strongest winds of 20 to 25 and possibly as high as 30 knots are expected from roughly east of the Islands to Conneaut with slightly lighter winds to 15 to 25 knots expected west and east. While Small Craft Advisories remain suspended due to ice on Lake Erie, waves in ice free areas in the central basin may build as high as 3 to 6 feet this afternoon into early this evening. The northwest winds will likely cause ice in the open waters to shift towards the lakeshore. Northwest winds will diminish this evening with sustained winds to about 10 to 15 knots expected by late tonight. Offshore flow will develop and deepen on Tuesday with west/southwest winds to 20 to 25 knots expected Tuesday night through Wednesday. West winds will once again diminish to 10 to 15 knots Wednesday night before becoming variable by late week.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for OHZ009- 019. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for OHZ010>014- 020-021-089. PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ001-003. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ002. MARINE...None.