textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1.) Next chances for showers/storms come from an upper level trough centered around the Tuesday time frame.

2.) Heat will build through the week as another upper level ridge builds into the Great Lakes.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Cold front should be south of the CWA by mid morning today with high pressure building on for today through Monday as it moves from the northern Great Lakes towards Long Island. Slightly cooler today as a result. Tuesday will see a brief return to upper level troughing combined with a warm front that will move through the CWA. POPs on the increase as a result for showers and storms, but for now, the focus of this activity will be the potential for heavy rain. The convection itself should be scattered overall, but a subtle low level jet with a significant influx of low level moisture will appear, and PWAT values could climb above 2 inches. Dewpoints will climb above 70F and vertical profiles indicate that high precipitation efficiency is likely, so downpours could be an issue, especially in a convective training or backbuilding situation. Still have time for these details to continue to unfold.

KEY MESSAGE 2... For the rest of the week, another upper level ridge builds into the Great Lakes, and temperatures will remain on the higher side with dewpoints also elevated as well in the lower 70s. Will need to watch for apparent T values to eclipse the 100F mark with temperatures that could reach the lower 90s. Isolated to scattered convection can be expected during daytime heating hours for the end of thee week, and then more organized threats Friday ahead of the cold front.

AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/

Showers and storms have exited the region with clear skies and VFR conditions under high pressure behind the cold front. Patchy fog is expected to develop overnight tonight given yesterday's rainfall and calm winds. Have TEMPO groups in at all TAF sites except KTOL and KERI for MVFR/IFR visibilities from ~08Z/Sun through 12Z/Sun. Expect for any fog to dissipate this morning giving way to VFR conditions through the remainder of the TAF period.

Light and variable winds overnight tonight will become northerly to northeasterly at 5-10 knots this morning.

Outlook...Periods of non-VFR likely in occasional showers and thunderstorms early Tuesday through Thursday.

MARINE

High pressure will continue to build over the lake today giving way to light onshore flow. Winds turn easterly while increasing to 5-15 knots on Monday. A warm front approaches the lake on Tuesday allowing for winds to shift southerly while remaining between 10-15 knots. Southerly to southwesterly flow will continue through the remainder of the week. Not anticipating any marine headlines.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.