textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No changes as today marks the beginning of the heat building into our CWA.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot and humid this week under a strong upper level ridge.

2) Chances for showers and storms return Friday through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... There are no large scale changes to the forecast for this week and the impending heat wave that will begin building into the western zones today. Upper level ridging builds into the Ohio Valley for the middle of the week as has been a consistent feature in the forecast models for several days now. NAM is now giving 850mb temperatures in the 25-26C range for Wednesday which reaffirms the upper 90s in the forecast for Wednesday into Thursday while dewpoints this week will be anywhere from the mid 60s to lower 70s. From a milestone standpoint, a big question will be if any of the official climate sites will hit the 100F mark at any point this week, again, with the best chances being Wednesday and Thursday. See the climate section below for record high temperatures for these climate sites as we go into this heat wave. Heat Advisory in place for much of the CWA. Temperatures look to retreat slightly Friday, and then further into the weekend, although still above normal through next Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Upper ridge breaks down Friday with the flow aloft turning either more zonal or slight southwesterly. This will allow a return of upper level waves into the region, and chances for convection will be on the rise. As mentioned during the forecast process last night, will need to see how details unfold with this pattern as to whether or not any organized systems encounter the CWA. But during peak daytime heating hours for Friday into the weekend, POPs in the 40 percent range will not be unreasonable going forward.

AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/

For the eastern portion of the airspace, some sunrise fog/mist has developed but has largely missed the terminals. These conditions should mix out over the next hour or two. To the west, some rain and mid-level clouds has entered the region ahead of a warm front. An increase in moisture in this region has allow for some MVFR to develop, which should also quickly mix out this morning. Overall, the theme for today is VFR with a mix of mid- and high-level clouds with intermittent ceilings. For KCLE and KERI, there will be a lake breeze that will reach the terminals this afternoon, shifting flow to the northeast. Otherwise, all terminals will have generally light southerly flow.

Outlook...VFR.

MARINE

High pressure east of the lake will allow for light southeast flow today. A warm front will cross the lake tonight and shift winds to the south then southwest. Southwest flow averaging 10 kts will then remain over the lake through Friday. No marine headlines are expected at this time.

CLIMATE

Hotter and more humid weather is expected this Monday through Friday. Record warm high temperatures may be challenged. Here are those records for each of our climate stations:

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 06-29 100(1952) 96(1934) 94(2012) 98(1952) 99(1933) 90(2021) 06-30 97(1953) 94(1970) 95(1941) 96(1913) 94(1942) 92(1930) 07-01 98(1931) 98(1931) 95(2002) 97(1931) 96(1931) 94(2018) 07-02 98(2011) 97(1931) 97(1954) 98(1931) 98(1931) 94(1963) 07-03 100(1911) 93(2020) 98(1949) 97(1911) 98(1898) 93(1934)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Thursday for OHZ003- 006-017. Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for OHZ007>014-018>023-027>033-036>038-047. PA...None. MARINE...None.