textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Near record warmth expected for portions of Northwest Ohio today.

2) Rain will spread west to east across the area Wednesday into Wednesday night bringing a quarter to a half inch of precipitation.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Southerly flow will continue across the region today as we remain between high pressure off the Mid-Atlantic Coast and elongated low pressure extending from the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains. Warm advection will be ongoing with 925mb temperatures peaking approximately 5C warmer than yesterday and breezy south winds gusting to 20-25 mph in North Central and Northwest Ohio. Aloft, 500mb heights of 582dm are above 90th percentiles values based on ILN sounding climatology for November 3rd. The anomalously warm airmass for early November combined with clearing skies will result in high temperatures in the low to mid 70s. Toledo has the best chance of tying or breaking a record which is 77 degrees from 1987. Records for other northern Ohio sites can be found in the Climate portion of the AFD below. Following the warm day, lows tonight will be mild ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A deep upper level trough extending to the southern Plains will pivot northeast towards the Great Lakes Region on Wednesday. Favorable moisture transport will be focused towards Ohio and forcing will be provided by upper level jet dynamics as the trough becomes negatively tilted aloft. Showers are expected to move into Northwest Ohio Wednesday morning then expand eastward through Wednesday night. Potential for thunderstorms is low but not zero. Did not include in the forecast with this cycle but can not rule out an isolated thunderstorm or two on Wednesday. South to southeast winds will be elevated on Wednesday but the boundary layer is expected to be stable enough to not bring down the stronger winds noted with a 40-50 knot low level jet overhead in showers. In general, most of the area is forecast to receive between a quarter and a half inch of rain. We will need to monitor convection across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys where moisture transport northward could be disrupted by thunderstorm activity but overall feel the high pops are justified ahead of the occluded front.

Temperatures will still be warm on Wednesday ahead of the front. Thursday is forecast to generally be dry as this trough lifts north across Michigan and phases with another trough dropping south out of Canada. A well pronounced dry-slot aloft will result in dry conditions and clearing skies. Yet another trough is expected to move out of the Four Corners Region into the Ohio Valley where it will merge with the original trough. While model spread increases heading into the weekend, models generally support a cold front moving south Friday bringing a chance of showers, especially downwind of Lake Erie. Temperatures over the weekend will be near normal values in the mid 50s but will feel cool compared to the warm pattern we have been in.

AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/

A few lingering MVFR ceilings are being observed near the lakeshore of NWPA but should continue to lift to VFR over the next hour. After that, widespread VFR conditions are expected through this period. Breezy south-southwest winds of 5-12 knots will occasionally gust up to 20-25 knots especially for terminals along and west of I-71. Near the end of this period, a cold front will approach the western terminals, possibly resulting in showers early Wednesday morning. Given a bit of timing uncertainty, opted to handle any shower potential with VCSH.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain Wednesday into Thursday.

MARINE

Southerly winds will continue on Lake Erie through Wednesday, becoming more southwesterly on Thursday. Winds may reach or exceed 20 knots on Wednesday as a low level jet moves overhead and will consider if a Small Craft Advisory is needed. Otherwise winds eventually shift to northwest behind a cold front on Friday, then increase to 10-20 knots Friday night through Saturday. Right now conditions over the weekend look to be choppy but just below Small Craft criteria. This will be something to monitor over the coming days.

CLIMATE

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 11-03 77(1987) 76(2015) 79(1961) 80(1961) 80(1961) 80(1961) 11-04 80(2003) 77(2015) 79(2003) 76(2015) 77(2003) 78(2015)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.