textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes at the moment. The potential for snow accumulations across parts of the area during the second half of the weekend into Monday will be monitored in the coming days.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Remaining warmer than average with periodic chances for rain through Friday. Rivers will continue to be monitored for ice jam potential, though the overall risk for flooding is fairly low.

2) Temperatures trend colder this weekend into early next week, with some combination of synoptic and lake effect snow possible the second half of the weekend into the start of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A warm front will lift east-northeast across the local area Wednesday morning/early afternoon, as occluded/filling low pressure moves across the Upper Midwest and towards Lake Superior. The combination of low-mid level isentropic lift along and ahead of the front, mid-level height falls/positive vorticity advection associated with a shortwave that will pass just to our north, and the left-exit region of an upper jet streak will support a round of showers...especially from west to east Wednesday morning/early afternoon. There may be some lighter rain tonight ahead of the approaching warm front, though weaker lift and dry low-levels may allow portions of the area to remain rain-free until morning. A rumble of thunder can't be ruled out with activity Wednesday morning/early afternoon given some modest elevated instability advecting in. Mainly dry weather is expected Wednesday afternoon and night behind the warm front, though will need to watch Northeast OH/Northwest PA for a few showers/perhaps a storm Wednesday evening as a cold front begins sinking back in from the northeast. Overall rainfall amounts with this system will generally be in the 0.10-0.25" range, a bit less south, and perhaps locally up to 0.50" if slightly more "robust" convection can play out farther north with the warm front Wednesday morning.

After a brief dry break, low pressure deepens and lifts into the Great Lakes Thursday into Friday. A warm front ahead of that low is expected to lift into the area Thursday night, quickly followed by an occluding cold front Friday morning. Rain potential peaks Thursday night into Friday morning overall, with a large dry slot expected to punch in behind the front later in the day Friday. There may again be a bit of thunder Thursday night or early Friday with sufficient elevated instability for it. Once again, outside of any locally more robust convection the QPF/rain amounts are generally expected to remain under 0.50" from late Thursday through Friday.

Outside of rain timing/amounts, there will be a couple pushes of gustier winds over the next few days. Southwest wind gusts into the 30-35 MPH range are likely midday-afternoon on Wednesday behind the warm front. Another window for potentially stronger winds is behind the occluding cold front on Friday, when 30-40 MPH type gusts appear reasonably possible. The occluding/ weakening nature of the system should limit the potential for much more wind than that, though it'll be gusty.

The warmest day overall will be Wednesday, when the western half or so of the area should get well into the 60s behind the warm front and morning rain...a bit cooler into far Northeast OH and Northwest PA. We'll still be well into the 50s on Thursday, with potential for some spots to over-perform and hit 60 if there's a bit more sun. Friday's highs will again be in the 50s (perhaps pushing 60 in our southeast depending on the timing of the front), though with a non-dirunal curve with falling temperatures expected behind the cold front.

Run-off from ongoing/recent snow melt and our relatively minor rain events will continue through the end of the week, with some rivers remaining ice-covered. The generally gradual nature of the run-off should keep rises on the slower side, with reports indicating that some (but not all) local rivers have already cleared out most of their ice. Given that some rivers still remain ice-covered with thick ice, with additional melting and modest rises continuing, potential for ice jams and isolated flooding in prone locations can't be ruled out...though the gradual nature of the thaw/snow melt and generally light rain events are helping to avoid more significant concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A dry start to the weekend is expected as temperatures return to more typical levels for mid February. The forecast for the second half of the weekend and start of next week takes on a more wintry flavor. Ridging will briefly amplify over the Rockies as a decaying west-based -NAO block persists near Hudson Bay, which will allow a trough to quickly carve out over the eastern U.S. as multiple shortwaves interact. This is a favorable pattern for a deepening low/potential winter storm along the East Coast, with potential for fringe impacts locally.

The main window for snow potential appears to be late Saturday night through early Monday locally. There will be potential for the northwestern fringe of the precip shield with the developing East Coast low to graze us with wet synoptic snow Saturday night or Sunday, Then, there's another window for potential synoptic and lake-enhanced snow on the backside of the system as troughing surface and aloft lingers Sunday night into Monday and temperatures aloft become marginally cold enough for lake enhancement. How well the various shortwaves phase, which will significantly impact how quickly the East Coast low develops and how expansive its precip shield becomes, is the main source of uncertainty on current guidance. Overall, most scenarios paint what would be a lighter overall snow event across the area, though more robust solutions (better phasing and a stronger low) could prove more impactful...especially across the snowbelt. Ridging should build in Monday night into Tuesday, bringing an end to any lingering lake effect or cold advection type snow showers across the area.

Saturday will still be somewhat "mild" with highs expected to range from the upper 30s to lower 40s, with colder values returning Sunday into early next week. The coldest overall day looks to be Monday, with highs below freezing and overnight lows in the 10s.

AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

A stationary front will linger over northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania into Wednesday with rain chances on the increase over the next few hours. Rain will be off and on through around 18-20Z depending on the terminal location, and ceilings will go to IFR for a few hours during the precipitation. Expect visibilities to fluctuate in and out of rain. With low pressure approaching from the west, the pressure gradient will be on the increase, and winds will increase accordingly with gusts out of the southwest to 30kts before tapering off after 03Z Thursday.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible late Thursday into Friday in rain showers.

MARINE

The main concerns for marine weather will be ice on the lake breaking up and shifting around due to stronger winds over the several days. Lake Erie remains ice covered. Winds will become northeasterly this afternoon 5 to 10 knots. Easterly winds increase to 10-20 knots tonight, then veer to southwesterly at 15-25 knots on Wednesday as a warm front lifts north across Lake Erie. There will be another time period of elevated winds expected Thursday night into Friday as easterly winds of 15-20 knots become southwesterly at 20-25 knots with the passage of a surface front.

Multiple periods with elevated winds along with much above normal temperatures across the region this week will continue to rot the lake ice with ice floes are expected. Shore ice may break off and any available shipping channels may be closed. It is important for people to stay off the ice this week or risk getting stranded. In addition, the warmer air overspreading the cold lake will result in areas of fog this afternoon and on Wednesday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.