textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast remains vastly unchanged with cold temperatures anticipated through tonight. The confidence in accumulating snow late this week continues to increase. Overall confidence in accumulations and impacts still remain low.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cold weather will continue through tonight with air temperatures below 20 degrees and overnight lows near to below zero. Wind chills of 10 degrees below zero or colder are expected into this morning and will allow for continued frostbite and exposure risks.

2) Light snow chances remain possible on Monday, which could produce some marginal travel impacts.

3) There is increasing potential for active winter weather late next week. Accumulating snowfall and travel impacts are possible, but confidence remains low at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... An arctic air mass remains in place across the region characterized by 850mb temperatures in the -10C to -20C range. Ongoing cloud cover will continue to limit radiational cooling and allow for slightly warmer minimum wind chill values -8 to -12 F early this morning. Afternoon high temperatures expected in the teens today. This will mark the ninth consecutive day where high temperatures at KCLE, and other observing sites, have remained below 20F.

Lows tonight will once again fall into the single digits to below zero range with minimum wind chills of -5 to -10F. Expect for a reprieve from the prolonged cold with highs "warming" into the low to mid 20s on Monday!

Despite the lack of cold weather headlines, the persistent cold will continue to produce similar impacts on infrastructure, people, and animals through today at the very least. Some impacts may persist into the work week as temps stay below freezing.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Light snow showers will gradually diminish through daybreak today as saturated low levels (925-850mb) gradually dry through this afternoon as high pressure builds overhead.

The next low pressure system will glide east through the Great Lakes region Monday through Tuesday. This system is expected to bring light snow showers to the local area on Monday. Some lingering lake enhanced snow showers will remain possible early Tuesday behind a surface cold front. Accumulations should remain fairly light but may produce a light dusting a roadways given sub-freezing pavement temperatures. More persistent snow may also produce brief reductions in visibility.

KEY MESSAGE 3... An area of low pressure is progged to push southeast from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region near the end of this week. Guidance continues to suggest widespread snowfall and a return of cold weather with current NBM probabilities of 4 or more inches of snowfall across eastern forecast zones gradually increasing from run-to-run. Some uncertainty remains in the exact track and evolution of the system therefore impacting overall snowfall amounts and timing of greatest impacts.

AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/

At the surface, a ridge continues to affect our region as the ridge axis moves from near western Lower MI and the IL/IN border to western NY and the Upper OH Valley by 12Z/Mon. Accordingly, our regional surface winds will back gradually from NW'erly to SW'erly while remaining around 5 to 10 knots. Mainly dry weather and VFR visibility are expected through the TAF period. Isolated to widespread lake-effect stratocumuli with bases near 1.5kft to 3kft AGL are expected to impact NE OH and NW PA through 12Z/Mon as mean low-level flow backs gradually from N'erly toward W'erly. These stratocumuli may produce periodic light snow with MVFR visibility in NW PA and vicinity through ~16Z/Sun. Based on expected evolution of low-level moisture quantity and depth, these low-level clouds should be most-widespread before ~15Z/Sun and after ~21Z/Sun.

Outlook...Periodic non-VFR due to low clouds and/or snow expected through this Thursday.

MARINE

Wind speeds are expected to be around 5 to 15 knots through this Thursday. Primarily N'erly to W'erly winds are forecast on Lake Erie today as a ridge builds from the western Great Lakes. The ridge begins to exit E'ward tonight through Monday, which will cause W'erly winds to shift to SW'erly. The SW'erly winds veer to W'erly to NW'erly Monday night through Tuesday as a weak cold front drifts E'ward across Lake Erie. Behind the front, mainly W'erly to NW'erly winds are expected through Wednesday night as another ridge builds from the north-central United States and vicinity. On Thursday, W'erly winds should back to SW'erly as the ridge begins to exit toward the northeast United States. The continued presence of a cold air mass and the relatively-weak winds will allow extensive ice cover on Lake Erie to expand and thicken further through Thursday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.