textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Cold temperatures are still expected through this weekend, but the need for a Cold Weather Advisory for tonight into Sunday has diminished with slightly warmer temperatures and wind chills. The previously mentioned mid-week system moving through the Ohio Valley continues to trend south and local impacts are no longer anticipated. There is increasing confidence on cold and winter weather late next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cold weather will continue through Sunday night with temperatures below 20 degrees and overnight lows near to below zero. Wind chills of 10 degrees below zero or colder are expected this morning and tonight into Sunday morning and will allow for continued frostbite and exposure risks.

2) Light snow chances remain through tonight and again on Monday, which could prompt some marginal travel impacts.

3) There is increasing potential for active winter weather late next week. Accumulating snowfall and travel impacts are possible, but confidence remains low at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Arctic high pressure to the west and an upper trough moving through the Great Lakes region will continue to reinforce cold air over the area through Sunday. Low temperatures this morning will be near record values for several locations and current records for official climate locations are listed below. Winds remain light at 5 kts or less. With the cold temperatures, just a 4 to 5 kt wind is allowing for wind chills to verify the ongoing Cold Weather Advisory that is valid until 11 AM. High temperatures will remain 20 degrees or colder through Sunday night, making the 8th or 9th consecutive day below 20 degrees for many folks. This will only continue to amplify any infrastructure issues across the region with the sustained cold.

The main forecast consideration this morning is with temperatures and wind chills tonight into Sunday. With high pressure off more to the southwest and with the upper trough supporting some clouds and very light snow showers, lows may be a bit elevated compared to this morning in the 5 to -5F range. Winds will also be a bit more elevated in the 5 to 8 kt range across the area. This combination will allow for wind chills in the -5 to -13F range at this time and will forgo issuing another Cold Weather Advisory for tonight into Sunday morning. If clouds and snow do not materialize today, then this may need to be reconsidered with the next forecast package.

KEY MESSAGE 2... There continues to be a low end threat of light snow showers today with an upper trough moving through the region coincident with a small pocket of low level moisture. When combined with some small element of lake enhancement from a mostly frozen Lake Erie and some distant connection to Lake Huron, there are likely going to be some light snow showers and clouds present across the forecast area today. Overall, snow accumulations look very minor but the forecast has been edited to give everyone a minor 20-30% PoP and a trace to a few tenths of snow.

For Monday into Monday night, there will be a warm front that will move through the region on the northwest side of high pressure. This system will allow for another round of light snow showers for the entire forecast area. This front appears to move quickly through the area and may also have just some limited moisture. Therefore, have 20-30% PoPs and minor accumulations for now.

KEY MESSAGE 3... While mentioned in the past two forecast discussions, the potential mid-week system moving through the Ohio Valley has trended south. There are no longer any snow or winter weather impacts expected on Wednesday with a dry forecast in place.

However, the late week signals for another sustaining cold air mass and a potential system with widespread snowfall continue with another deep upper level trough setting up over the eastern CONUS. Any impacts would be Friday and beyond, but there are still many details to iron out, as this system is 6-7 days out. For now, the confidence in the magnitude of snow and cold are low but the potential exists for impacts. Moreover, this reinforcing cold air late in the week may allow for most of the area to remain below freezing for over two weeks, which hasn't happened since February 2021.

AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/

At the surface, a weak trough axis will drift S'ward across our region through about 17Z/Sat. Otherwise, a ridge builds from the north-central United States and vicinity through 12Z/Sun. Our regional surface wind speeds are expected to be around 5 to 10 knots through the TAF period. Wind direction is expected to trend variable ahead of the trough axis and NW'erly to N'erly behind the trough axis.

Widespread stratocumuli with bases near 2kft to 5kft AGL continue to overspread our region generally from north to south through midday. From midday through 12Z/Sun, widespread ceilings near 1.5kft to 3kft AGL are expected over northern OH and NW PA. These stratocumuli should produce periodic light snow, especially this morning through early evening, due to a combination of convergence/moist ascent along the surface trough axis, self-destructive sunshine, and the potential for limited lake-effect snow to stream generally S'ward over/downwind of mainly ice-covered Lake Erie. Primarily VFR visibility is expected with these light snow showers, but they may reduce visibility to MVFR on occasion.

Outlook...Periodic non-VFR due to low clouds and/or snow expected through this Wednesday.

MARINE

Wind speeds are expected to be around 5 to 15 knots through this Wednesday. Primarily N'erly to W'erly winds are forecast on Lake Erie through Sunday as a ridge builds from the north-central United States and vicinity. The ridge begins to exit E'ward Sunday night through Monday, which will cause W'erly winds to shift to SW'erly. SW'erly winds veer to W'erly Monday night through Tuesday as a very weak cold front drifts E'ward across Lake Erie. Behind the front, W'erly to N'erly winds are expected through Wednesday as another ridge builds from the north-central United States and vicinity. The continued presence of a cold air mass and the relatively-weak winds will allow extensive ice cover on Lake Erie to expand and thicken further through the middle of next week.

CLIMATE

Record cold low temperatures are possible this morning. Here are the current records for January 31st:

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 01-31 -10(2019) -7(2019) -5(1971) -5(1948) -9(1948) -6(1899)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for OHZ003- 006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089. PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for PAZ001>003. MARINE...None.