textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Freeze Warnings have been issued for the far eastern counties in Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania and a Frost Advisory has been issued remaining counties in Ohio for Tuesday morning. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Frost and Freeze headlines have been issued for northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania for tonight into Tuesday morning as temperatures drop down into the mid to low 30s.

2) Moderate rain is expected late Tuesday night into Wednesday as low pressure moves through the Great Lakes region. Lingering showers possible across northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania into Thursday.

3) Warming trend across the region starting on Friday into next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Temperatures will continue to be below average through overnight tonight as cold high pressure builds in across the region. 850mb temperatures have trended warmer over the past few model runs ranging between -2C to the northeast to 2C to the southwest of the area. This has lowered confidence in a wider spread freeze potential outside of the far eastern tier of Ohio counties and in Pennsylvania. Additionally, winds across western Ohio will be out of the northeast as the high moves to the east creating on shore flow that will keep temperatures in northwestern Ohio a couple degrees warmer. The further west and south in the CWA, the harder it will be to have widespread frost due to the winds being slightly stronger and being on the warm side of the 850 temperatures. Frost formation in low lying and sheltered areas are still likely given the setup. With that being said, a Freeze Warning has been issued for the eastern tier of Ohio counties along with the two Pennsylvania counties. The remaining Ohio counties, to include the lakeshore zones of Ashtabula, OH and Erie, PA, have been placed in a frost advisory. Both of these headlines are valid from midnight tonight through 8AM Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Low pressure will enter the Great Lakes region late Tuesday night bringing widespread rain showers and a few thunderstorms to the area through early Thursday. Precipitation will enter from the west late Tuesday ahead of a cold front and exit to the east midday Wednesday. Current forecast has around 0.50" for QPF across the area, with some locally higher amounts possible if there are heavier showers associated with convection. As the cold front exits to the east, there will be northwesterly flow across the region and Lake Erie that will help generate some lake enhanced showers across northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania. Generally, these showers are expected to be light with no major accumulation. These showers will linger in the region through Thursday until high pressure and ridging builds in from the west and winds shift Thursday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Starting Saturday, upper level ridging will begin to build into the eastern half of CONUS and temperatures will warm across the area as a result. The highs this weekend will reach into the upper 70s to low 80s across the region. By early next week, temperatures will climb further into the mid to upper 80s. Additionally, dew points will climb as well with the influx of moisture due west to southwesterly flow across the region.

AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/

VFR across the TAF sites this afternoon with VFR to persist through the TAF period. A sct to bkn deck around 8kft will gradually become few to skc late this evening and overnight. North to northwest winds this afternoon of 8 to 12 knots will become light and favor a north to northeast direction overnight, less than 5 knots. Winds will shift towards the south and increase to 8 to 10 knots Tuesday afternoon. A weak lake breeze will impact ERI and potentially reach CLE by early afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected in showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday through Wednesday with lingering rain and low ceilings through Thursday. Non-VFR may return in scattered rain showers and thunderstorms late Friday into Saturday.

MARINE

Generally quiet marine conditions will continue through Tuesday as high pressure gradually exits east of the area. South to southwest winds will increase ahead of a low pressure system Tuesday night into Wednesday, 15 to 25 knots, though winds will likely be closer to 15 to 20 knots in the nearshore. Small Craft chances will increase later Wednesday into Thursday as flow shifts towards the west, then northwest behind a cold front, 15 to 20 knots, with 4-footers appearing more likely. Winds will weaken to less than 15 knots Thursday night through Friday as high pressure builds across the region.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for OHZ003-006>013-017>022-027>032-036>038-047-089. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for OHZ014-023-033. PA...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ001. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ002-003. MARINE...None.