textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast remains on track with widespread precipitation tonight and scattered showers through Thursday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather expected starting tonight through Thursday afternoon with periodic showers and thunderstorms.

2) Temperatures begin warming Friday into early next week with above average temperatures likely.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Low pressure enters the Great Lakes region this evening with the associated warm front moving north through area tonight. Precipitation will begin out west before midnight and progressing eastward throughout the night ahead of the cold front. The cold front will move through the region early Wednesday morning and exit by the afternoon. There may be some thunderstorms initially when the showers begin out west, though most of the instability will be minimal overnight so expecting little thunder if any over night. Generally expecting a quarter inch of QPF overnight with the rain showers. Behind the cold front, precipitation across the western portion of the CWA will end and there will be a short lull in precipitation out east. Additionally moisture will return to the region late Wednesday evening as flow shift to be more north- northwesterly across the region. This will help support the development of periodic lake enhanced showers across eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania through Thursday afternoon. Though, given the lake is still on the cooler side compared to the air temperature, there will be minimal lake induced instability impacting the overall extent of the lake enhanced showers. Warmer upper air temperatures begin to move into the region Thursday and showers should begin to end by the evening timeframe. Overall, an additional tenth or two of precipitation is possible across the primary and secondary snowbelts through Thursday evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Behind the exiting trough, upper level ridging will begin to build into the region early Friday and the area will see a warming trend in the temperatures through early next week. The region will be in a west to southwesterly flow starting Friday afternoon and temperatures will gradually increase each day through Monday. Highs on Friday will be 10-15 degrees warmer than on Thursday into the upper 60s to low 70s. Through the weekend, highs will climb into the upper 70s to low 80s with the warmest day being Monday as highs will be in the mid 80s. Overnight lows will be slightly above average as well, dropping down into the mid 50s through the weekend. Given it's almost a week out, there are some disagreements in some models as to how warm Sunday and Monday will get, so some adjustments in the temperatures may be needed as we get closer.

AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

VFR across the TAF sites this evening with deterioration to MVFR and pockets of IFR conditions overnight as a line of rain showers moves east through the area. The highest confidence for IFR vsbys in heavier rain is generally along and west of the I-71 corridor. Intensity of the rain showers should decrease further east, though still anticipating a brief period of MVFR vsbys. Otherwise, a brief period of MVFR ceilings may arrive behind the initial surge of rain early Wednesday morning, before lifting to low-end VFR, around 3.5kft. Lower ceilings in the MVFR range will arrive towards the end of the TAF period as lake- enhanced clouds and rain showers become more likely across the eastern half of the area.

Winds are generally out of the south this evening, 5 to 10 knots. Winds will increase out of the south to southwest through this evening and overnight, 10 to 15 knots with periodic gusts of 20 to 25 knots, especially west of the I-71 corridor. Winds will abruptly shift towards the west and northwest behind a cold front late Wednesday morning and afternoon, 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with lingering rain and low ceilings Wednesday night through Thursday. Non-VFR may return in isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.

MARINE

Calm marine conditions will persist through this afternoon before a warm front lifts north across Lake Erie, marking a transition to south-southwesterly winds and an increase to 20-25 knots across the western and central basins. As a cold front pushes east tonight, winds will gradually shift to become west-northwesterly, remaining elevated in the 15-25 knots range. The shift to onshore flow will result in waves building to 4-6 feet across the central and eastern basin lakeshores. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the southern shore of Lake Erie.

On Thursday into Friday, conditions will gradually improve as high pressure nudges east over the region. This will result in variable winds of 5-10 knots with waves under 2 feet. Late Sunday, another warm front will lift north of the area, allowing winds to once again become southerly and increase to 10-15 knots into the start of next week. Given offshore flow, no additional marine headlines are anticipated at this time.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ142-143. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for LEZ144-145. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ146>149.