textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The forecast continues to trend warmer for this Friday, when above-normal highs are expected region-wide. No other changes to note.

KEY MESSAGES

1.) Mainly dry weather and an overall moderation in air temperatures are expected through this Saturday.

2.) Inclement weather should return this Saturday night through Wednesday. Precipitation types and/or amounts remain uncertain, especially Sunday night through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

1.) A high pressure ridge at the surface and aloft continues to build from the Upper Midwest and vicinity through tonight, crests E'ward across our region on Thursday, and begins to exit E'ward on Friday. Primarily dry weather is expected as stabilizing subsidence accompanies the ridge. Net low-level CAA ahead of the surface ridge axis, a brief uptick in low-level moisture, albeit limited, and a W'erly mean low-level flow should allow periodic and light lake-effect snow (LES) showers to develop over Lake Erie and impact the primary snowbelt of NE OH and NW PA this evening through the first couple hours of Thursday morning. This light LES is expected to produce fresh snow accumulations of less than 1". Low temperatures should reach mainly the mid teens to lower 20's around daybreak Thursday.

Net low-level WAA develops across our CWA on Thursday and then persists through Friday as our region becomes located along the western side of the ridge axis at the surface and aloft. Late afternoon highs should reach the mid 30's to lower 40's roughly along and west of I-77, where low-level WAA is expected to develop sooner. Farther east, highs should reach the upper 20's to mid 30's. After lows in the upper teens to upper 20's around daybreak Friday, late afternoon highs should reach the upper 40's to mid 50's as abundant sunshine is complemented by somewhat breezy S'erly to SW'erly surface winds associated with the aforementioned WAA. For context, normal highs are near 40F and normal lows are near 25F this time of year in our CWA.

During Friday night through Saturday, the ridge continues to exit E'ward as cyclonic W'erly flow aloft becomes established over our region. In addition, a weak/moisture-starved cold front should sweep E'ward through our region Saturday morning through early afternoon. Behind the front, a weak surface ridge should nose into our region from the Upper Midwest and vicinity. Thus, dry weather should persist. Overnight lows should reach the 30's Friday night. Saturday's late afternoon highs should reach the 40's to lower 50's amidst peeks of sunshine and very weak low-level CAA behind the front.

2.) At this point, it appears cyclonic W'erly flow aloft should persist over our region this Saturday night through next week Tuesday. At the surface and aloft, the polar front should waver in/near the Great Lakes region and Upper OH Valley as multiple mid-latitude cyclones develop/evolve along the front. Periods of precip are expected along the front and ahead of shortwave trough axes embedded in the flow aloft. Mainly colder-than- normal temperatures should impact our region Saturday night through Monday night. Snow should be the predominant precip type during that time period. On Tuesday, a warm front may sweep generally N'ward through our region and allow for near-normal high and low temperatures on that day through Wednesday. Thus, primarily rain and/or snow should occur during that time frame. Stay tuned for forecast updates, including refinements to forecast precip types and amounts.

AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/

VFR is expected through the TAF cycle as high pressure builds across the region. Lingering MVFR in far eastern Ohio and western PA will diminish over the next hour. W winds of 10-20 knots this afternoon will gust to 20-30 knots at times while gradually turning NW behind a cold front. NW winds will diminish this evening and become light and variable overnight before increasing to 5-10 knots by late Thursday morning.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible as snow moves southeast across the area Saturday night.

MARINE

Quiet marine conditions are expected through Thursday night as high pressure builds over the southern Great Lakes region. SW winds will increase to 10-15 knots Friday and 15-25 knots Friday night ahead of a cold front. Winds will turn NW and decrease to 5-10 knots behind the front Saturday before turning N at 10-15 knots Saturday night and Sunday then NE at 10-15 knots by Monday.

The variable wind speeds and directions will continue to shift around the ice fields through early next week, and mild temperatures this weekend will lead to further decay of the ice.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.