textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rainfall amounts have increased slightly for tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain will spread west to east across the area tomorrow bringing a half to three-quarters of an inch of precipitation.

2) An upper trough over the region will lead to an unsettled pattern continuing into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry weather today will come to an end early tomorrow morning as a broad upper level trough and accompanying surface low pressure track east into the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region. Moisture transport from the Gulf will increase area PWATs on Wednesday to around 1.50" which is above the 90th percentile for early November at regional sites. Widespread showers are expected to enter from the west Wednesday morning and push eastward through the day before tapering off from west to east in the evening. Can't rule out a few isolated embedded thunderstorms tomorrow as SBCAPE values may briefly increase to a few hundred J/kg in the morning and early afternoon. Severe threat remains limited given the lower forecasted instability amount. Overall rainfall amounts will range between 0.25-0.50 inches for much of the forecast area with locally higher amounts of 0.50-0.75 inches most likely along and south of US-30. Additionally, a 40-50 LLJ will move overhead tomorrow and allow for southerly wind gusts to increase to 25-30 MPH.

KEY MESSAGE 2... There will likely be a window of dry weather on Thursday as the trough lifts north before another trough sinks south Thursday night into Friday. This secondary trough will lead to occasional chances for showers downwind of Lake Erie through the weekend and into early next week. Cooler temperatures expected this weekend with highs in the 50s and overnight lows in the 30s.

AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

VFR conditions are expected early this morning ahead of a cold front and rain entering the region from the west. A low level jet will enter the region ahead of the front and present a LLWS threat, mainly to the western TAF sites. As rain enters the region during the late morning hours, ceilings will fall to lower VFR and eventually to MVFR with persistent rain showers. Winds will remain out of the south with gusts of 20 to 30 kts with the rain today. Some IFR could develop, especially in typical spots like KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG. The cold front will move through the airspace late in the TAF period, ending the rain and shifting winds to the southwest.

Outlook...Low pressure and a cold front crossing through the region Friday into Saturday bring the next potential round of non-VFR in rain showers/low ceilings.

MARINE

Southerly winds 12-18 knots will continue across Lake Erie today into tomorrow morning. A 40-50 knot low level jet will move overhead the Lower Great Lakes during the day tomorrow which may increase southerly winds to 15-20 knots Wednesday afternoon and evening. Given the southerly component, the highest wave heights of 3-5 feet will remain across the open waters despite the higher wind speeds. Winds shift southwesterly behind a cold front Wednesday night into Thursday before diminishing to 10-15 knots by Thursday evening. Winds turn northwesterly in the wake of a trough Friday into the weekend with wind speeds generally between 10 and 20 knots. Conditions, particularly in the central basin, will be choppy with wave heights 2-4 feet expected.

CLIMATE

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 11-03 77(1987) 76(2015) 79(1961) 80(1961) 80(1961) 80(1961) 11-04 80(2003) 77(2015) 79(2003) 76(2015) 77(2003) 78(2015)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.