textproduct: Cleveland

SYNOPSIS

High pressure extends from the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley. A trough will slide southeast across the Great Lakes Region tonight. High pressure overhead on Sunday will shift east allowing a warm front to lift north across the area on Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Flurries will taper off in the east while high level cloud overspreads the area from the west this morning. Shortwave energy will slide southeast through the Great Lakes Region today with moisture returning to the low levels by late in the day. Some snow is expected to return to the area tonight as weak low pressure slides from Lake Huron towards Lake Ontario. Scattered snow showers are possible across northern portions of the area but accumulations will be confined primarily to the snowbelt region of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. The window for snow with a deeper moisture profile is fairly brief, lasting only about 6 hours from 03Z-09Z. Southwesterly low level flow will initially support a band with moderate intensity to develop near or just north of the Lake Erie shoreline. This band will move onshore late this evening, then transition to lake enhanced snow showers with northwesterly flow overnight. Snow tonight will tend to range from 1-3 inches across Lake, northern Ashtabula and Geauga Counties with locally 2-4 inches in Erie County Pennsylvania. Additional accumulations will be light in Ohio on Sunday as moisture depth tends to fall below 850mb while lingering a little longer in NW Pennsylvania where an additional 1-2 inches of snow will be possible. Can not entirely rule out the need for an Advisory for Erie County Pennsylvania but seems just a little too marginal at this time. We could see some shallow low level convergence again ahead of the surface ridge building into Ohio and have raised pops to 60+ percent on Sunday in NW Pennsylvania. Subsidence will win out by Sunday evening with snow ending in NW Pennsylvania as flow backs to west southwest.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

High pressure will shift east of the region Sunday night into Monday with a warm front lifting north. While most of the precipitation associated with this front will be north of Lake Erie, a chance of snow is possible across mainly far Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Little to no accumulation is expected however given temperatures warming and snow ratios falling to 8 or lower. Highs on Monday will be 10 or so degrees warmer than Sunday and then continuing to climb into the 40s area wide on Tuesday. Upper level ridge axis is overhead on Monday with a shortwave moving through the flow aloft on Tuesday. Scattered rain showers will be possible with isentropic ascent as 850mb temperatures climb towards 4-6C.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

The long term forecast will be characterized by well above normal temperatures for early January as we soar into the 50s. This will melt the snowpack and bring a round of rain with good moisture transport ahead of a full latitude trough advancing from the Plains. Will need to monitor how much precipitation is expected Thursday night through Saturday with multiple rounds of rain possible. We will certainly expect to see rises on rivers in the snowbelt region for the end of the week and may need to monitor flooding potential at a few locations.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Periodic MVFR ceilings are expected at KERI and other primary snowbelt terminals for most of today, although there will probably be a period of VFR ceilings mid-morning into early this afternoon. A weak clipper will move across the area tonight, resulting in lower ceilings areawide and lake-enhanced snow showers across NE OH and NW PA. Ceilings should be low-end VFR at KTOL/KFDY with MVFR developing at other TAF sites late tonight. The best chance of snow showers will be at KCLE/KYNG/KERI near or shortly after 00Z tonight, but a few light snow showers could sneak as far southwest as KCAK between about 06Z and 09Z Sunday morning. Visibilities will most likely be MVFR, however periods of IFR visibilities are possible in more moderate snow at KERI.

Winds will be out of the west/southwest at 5 knots or less this morning with winds closer to Lake Erie increasing to 5 to 10 knots by late morning. Light and variable winds are more favored at inland terminals through the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR is expected across northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania with snow showers and low ceilings through Sunday morning and again Monday morning. Additional non-VFR possible in rain showers Tuesday and Tuesday night.

MARINE

The remaining Small Craft Advisories will expire at 09Z/4 AM and headlines are not anticipated for the next several days. Winds will be out of the west/northwest at around 8 to 14 knots through most of Sunday with winds becoming offshore Sunday night into Monday. Warm air advection will result in southwest winds between 6 and 12 knots Monday evening through the middle of the week. Small Craft Advisories may be needed Friday into the weekend as south/southwest flow deepens.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.