textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rain chances this evening into tonight have increased a bit as a shortwave moves across the area. Have also introduced patchy to areas of fog to the forecast for tonight into early Friday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers with some isolated storms are possible this afternoon and evening, mainly along and south of US 30 in Ohio.

2) Humid conditions with shower and storm chances will return on Saturday with periodic showers and thunderstorms possible next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front will slowly push south across the area this afternoon into this evening. Scattered showers and stray thunderstorms remain possible across the southern part of the area, mainly along/south of US-30 in Ohio. Instability is meager and suppressed to the south of the area so severe weather is not anticipated in any thunderstorms through this evening. Have increased PoPs to slight chance/chance (20-40 percent) through tonight in the southern part of the area since a shortwave trough may allow for some additional rain development. Dry conditions will develop by early Friday morning as high pressure builds into the area. Patchy to areas of fog (locally dense in spots) will develop across the area late tonight into early Friday morning given persistent low level moisture and light winds

KEY MESSAGE 2... After a brief break from both humidity and rain chances on Friday, shower and thunderstorm chances will return to the area Saturday as a warm front lifts through the region. The greatest probability of showers and thunderstorms will be across southern and eastern areas during the day. The potential for gusty winds in thunderstorms is still there, but confidence is low due to likelihood of daytime cloud cover and uncertainty with the placement/timing of the best instability and forcing. Dew points will once again reach the upper 60s and lower 70s on Saturday so it will be quite humid. Isolated showers can't be ruled out as a cold front attempts to cross the region on Sunday with dry weather favored on Monday as high pressure briefly builds in from the west. Another period of unsettled weather is likely as a series of disturbances ripple across the region Tuesday through at least Wednesday, though there is still low confidence in the exact timing/placement of showers and thunderstorms and any resulting impacts/hazards.

AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/

Well developed CU field and eroding low clouds from this morning has yielded MVFR ceilings at KCLE, KYNG, and KERI. The other TAF sites will remain with VFR conditions through 03z Friday. Surface dewpoints remain in the upper 60s. Ceilings will erode at most TAF sites overnight. Near calm winds and cooling will allow radiational fog to develop at sites. Will insert a tempo group with MVFR to IFR condition from 08z to 12z due to mist/fog.

Winds will remain out of the west to southwest this afternoon, 4 to 7 knots and become light and variable or favoring a weak northwest direction overnight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in low ceilings and/or patchy fog Friday morning. Non-VFR possible again on Saturday in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE

Northwest winds between 5 and 10 knots this evening will shift to the northeast as high pressure builds over Lake Erie tonight into Friday morning. Winds may increase by a few knots as they shift to the southeast in response to an approaching warm front late Friday into early Saturday before becoming south/southwest during the day Saturday. Northwest winds are expected as a cold front moves over the lake at some point Sunday. Winds will remain well below Small Craft Advisory limits through the weekend, although headlines may be needed in the western/central basins as northeast winds increase to 15 to 20 knots early Monday morning. At the very least, there will probably be moderate swim risks. Winds may remain elevated as southerly flow deepens Monday night into Tuesday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.