textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast with this update. Hot and humid conditions will continue through tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered chances for showers and thunderstorms continue ahead of a cold front that will push across the region Friday.

2) Hot and humid conditions ahead of the cold front with little overnight relief anticipated. Cooler weather behind a cold front Friday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... An upper level trough is currently over the North Central U.S. and the western Great Lakes region. There is a small upper level ridge over the Ohio Valley today. Our area is ahead of a cold front that is located over the Upper Midwest and across the Cornbelt region. Looking ahead for the rest of the afternoon and evening, mostly dry weather conditions are expected. There could be a few widely scattered pop-up showers or thunderstorms through the evening hours. Our attention will be looking westward later this evening and overnight for a decaying MCS that may potentially move into our area. High-res forecast guidance is somewhat uncertain on timing and coverage of this possible complex of convection. SPC does have the entire area in a marginal risk for severe storms and far NWOH in a slight risk. The main severe weather hazard would be damaging wind gusts. Again forecast confidence on timing and scope of possible convection is somewhat uncertain.

The weather pattern for tomorrow will be similar as today. The area will be will be on the warm side of an advancing cold front through the Great Lakes and Midwest. Some widely scattered convection may be possible during the daytime heating. POPs and rain chances look higher for Thursday night into early Friday morning as convection from the west moves across the area with the associated cold front. Again, SPC has the area in a marginal risk for severe storms with the main threat being damaging wind gusts.

High pressure will build into the area later Friday and Saturday with drier weather. Another cold front will move across the area early Sunday with a chance for showers. An upper level trough will develop over the Great Lakes region by next week with scattered chances for showers.

KEY MESSAGE 2... The heat and humidity will stick around through Thursday evening. The current heat advisory for north central and northwest Ohio will remain in effect through this evening. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s this afternoon. The heat index will be up to 100 degrees, especially in the heat advisory area. Overnight low temperatures tonight will not bring much relief in the lower to middle 70s. Tomorrow's high temperatures will climb back into the upper 80s and lower 90s with the heat index approaching 100 degrees again. Additional heat advisories may be needed for north central and northwest Ohio again Thursday. A cold front will knock the temperatures down a little for Friday into the weekend. An upper level trough will develop over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by early next week with cooler temperatures in the 70s for highs.

AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/

Mainly VFR across the TAF sites this afternoon, though some residual pockets of lower MVFR ceilings remain out east. Anticipate ceilings to improve to at least low-end VFR at all sites over the next couple of hours.

Attention then turns towards later this afternoon and evening for shower and thunderstorm development, mainly along and east of the I-71 corridor. The highest confidence in direct TAF impacts resides at CLE/YNG/ERI and has been reflected in tempo groups with brief and abrupt wind shifts and IFR vsbys. Lesser confidence at CAK/MFD, so went with a brief window of vcts. Another area of concern will be overnight along the I-75 corridor, potentially impacting TOL/FDY as a line of showers and thunderstorms moves east into Ohio. Lesser confidence for impacts downstream of the I-75 corridor into Thursday morning, but will continue to monitor trends.

Winds are generally out of the southwest this afternoon, 8 to 12 knots. Winds will begin to favor a more westerly direction late Thursday morning and afternoon, 8 to 12 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening and overnight. Non-VFR possible in a line of showers and thunderstorms Thursday night, particularly west of the I-71 corridor. Non- VFR may return in scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, particularly along and east of the I-71 corridor.

MARINE

The next marine concern will be late Thursday night into Friday as a cold front briefly ushers in west winds of around 20 knots. At the minimum, a moderate rip risk is likely early Friday, especially across the central and eastern basin with waves of 2 to 4 feet. A lower potential for rough marine conditions is also possible late Saturday night into Sunday as another cold front ushers in west to northwest winds of around 15 knots.

There will also be a few chances for strong thunderstorms impacting the lake with gusty winds over the next several days. The first chance for strong storms will be late this evening and overnight, with a higher likelihood Thursday night into Friday morning as a line of showers and storms moves east into the area.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003-006>011- 017>020-027>030-036-037-047. PA...None. MARINE...None.