textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast remains on track currently. There is still uncertainty on the location of the showers and thunderstorms overnight tonight and tomorrow. Severe weather and heavy rain still remain a threat through tomorrow evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected through Wednesday night. There will potential for heavy rainfall with each round of precipitation which could lead to localized flash flooding. Severe weather is also possible with each round with the main threat being damaging winds.

2) Brief dry period on Thursday through early Saturday as high pressure builds into the region.

3)Unsettled weather returns late Saturday through the remainder of the weekend as low pressure moves through the Great Lakes region.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Over the next few days, a series of shortwaves are expected to move through the region bringing the chance for heavy rain and severe weather. The shortwave that brought the severe weather to Northern Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania has moved off to the east and there will be a brief period of dry weather until after midnight tonight. There is low probability of showers and thunderstorms developing across the southern tier of counties in the CWA, but confidence is low due to the thunderstorms this morning across Central Ohio working over the atmosphere. Another shortwave will enter the region late tonight and move through by tomorrow morning. Current expectation is that the showers and thunderstorms will be in the western and southern portion of the CWA. There will be potential for heavy rain to bring localized flash flooding to the areas that get precipitation, but the limiting factor is that that area has not received much precipitation over the past couple of days. Will need to monitor the development of the precipitation and adjust as needed. Additionally, there will be a threat of damaging winds with these storms as they moved through. Instability will be lacking given the storms will be moving through overnight, but there will be around 40 knots of bulk shear across the region that could support strong to severe winds. As the shortwave moves out of the area to the east, precipitation should end by mid morning and dry weather is expected through midday.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms are expected late tomorrow afternoon into the evening as another stronger shortwave moves into the region from the northwest. Current model guidance suggests an MCS will be moving through Northern Illinois through Indiana and into Central Ohio. There will be ample instability ahead of this feature along with decent lapse rates and bulk shear that suggests that it will continue into Ohio. The main question with this would be where it will set up and if it reaches further north than a line from Bowling Green down through Canton, OH. Regardless, strong to damaging wind gusts will be plausible along this feature from the afternoon into the early evening as it exits to the southeast. Heavy rain and flooding could be a threat as well given the previous days precipitation, though confidence is low in flooding occurring given the reasons stated for the previous night. Severe weather threat should end by late Tuesday evening and primarily dry weather is expected overnight.

Wednesday evening into the early overnight hours, another shortwave and surface low will move through the region with another round of showers and thunderstorms. There's still some uncertainty on how this system will play out, but with the current run of models, it does not appear to be as impactful as far as severe weather goes. Generally, instability will be lower across the region, but with decent shear could support some stronger wind gusts. Precipitation will end late Wednesday night as the surface low moves off to the southeast and high pressure builds in.

KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will begin to build into the region from the northwest Thursday afternoon. There is a low probability for showers across the southern portion of the CWA into Central Ohio on Thursday evening and how far north these get will be dependent on how far south the high has built in at that time. Generally, the majority of the area will be dry with everyone being dry through Saturday as the high builds overhead and moves eastward.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Unsettled weather returns to the region late Saturday evening through the remainder of the weekend. The upper level ridge will breakdown and northwesterly zonal flow is likely across the region and a few shortwaves are expected to move through the weekend. Given the event is several days away details are still uncertain on if there will be a severe or flooding threat.

AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/

In period of multiple convective complexes that will be coming through the southern Great Lakes over the next few days, and the main challenges coming from timing of these as they approach each terminal. Next one after the activity this morning should be after 02Z tonight, but still run into issues with evolution of the storms and how they will propagate across the region. For now, using 2-3hr TEMPO groups as once the storms onset, there may be more than one cell rolling through. Ceilings to low end MVFR/IFR towards morning, and restrictions in place through most of the second half of the TAF.

Outlook...Periods of non-VFR conditions are expected in multiple rounds of convective activity through Thursday. Low ceilings possible at times as well.

MARINE

West southwesterly winds 10kts will persist through midweek that will become variable as low pressure passes west to east across Lake Erie. Wave heights decrease tonight and should be 2ft or less through Wednesday night before winds become northwesterly for the end of the week in the wake of a cold front. Wave heights will then increase to 1-3ft during this time.

Expect the potential for periodic showers and storms, with breaks, through at least midweek.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ147>149.