textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Patchy fog possible across Western Ohio this morning as clouds clear out. Probability of record high temperatures continues to increase for Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather expected Tuesday through the middle of the week with record high temperatures possible on Tuesday.

2) Brief dry period expected Thursday before a strong low pressure system moves through the region with rain, strong winds, and the coldest air of the season Friday through Sunday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... The low pressure system that brought showers the previous days will continue to exit off the east coast this morning and the low level clouds behind will begin to dissipate from west to east. The drier air in Eastern Indiana as been slow to move into the western counties of the CWA this morning. As it does clear out, there will be potential for patchy fog across Western Ohio this morning. Though how far east it reaches is uncertain given the slow clearing and will assess the need for an SPS over the next few hours. Afterwards, high pressure will nose in from the south and dry weather is expected today.

An unsettled pattern begins late tonight into early Tuesday as a weak shortwave moves through the upper Great Lakes. Rain chances are low currently and confined to Northern Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania since there will be a decent amount of dry air to fight with to the south. There will be warm air advecting into the region as flow shifts to be out of the west leading to some instability developing across the region so thunderstorms will be possible if precipitation does develop. Additionally, with the warm air advection, temperatures will climb into the low to mid 80s across the region Tuesday afternoon and will rival record high temperatures for the day. The best areas to see records broken will be at most Ohio climate sites with Youngstown staying a few degrees under and Erie staying in the upper 70s. Record highs for the day can be found below in the climate section.

The better chance for widespread rain and thunderstorms will be late Tuesday night into Wednesday as a cold front sweeps north to south across the region. Given the timing of the front, instability will be minimal so not anticipating much more than general thunderstorms at this point. This front will settle to the south across the Ohio Valley during the day Wednesday. Rain chances will be lower during the day, but will increase further south into Central Ohio. With expected rain showers, temperatures on Wednesday will be cooler in the low to upper 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Canadian high pressure briefly builds in from the north late Wednesday into Thursday. A strong upper level trough begins to develop across the Canadian Prairies that will phase with a cut off low located across the Southwestern CONUS. This trough will rapidly deepen as it progresses eastward into the Great Lakes region late Thursday. The associated surface low will have a similar strengthening across the Great Lakes and a strong cold front will move through on Friday. There's still quite a bit of model discrepancies with this system and how it phases with the cut off low across the southwest. This leads to varying timing and strength of the upper level trough when it moves through the region. The GFS has trended slower than both the Euro and Canadian models and has been slightly deeper with colder air advecting in behind.

Regardless, this set up with bring in strong winds beginning Friday morning into Saturday with rain showers expected during that time frame as well. Additionally, this will usher in the coldest temperatures of the season so far for Saturday and Sunday mornings with chilly wind chills as well due to the gusty winds. How cold it will get is uncertain due to the reasoning mentioned above with model guidance. Lingering lake effect showers are likely across Northeastern Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania Saturday into early Sunday. Will definitely be a system to watch how it develops as the need for wind headlines will be possible. High pressure builds into the region Sunday with dry weather expected and temperatures beginning to moderate.

AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/

Overcast skies with MVFR to LIFR ceilings and patchy drizzle/fog will continue for a couple more hours this morning. Cloud cover will gradually dissipate through the morning hours and possibly into the early afternoon, giving way to VFR conditions in high-level cirrus. Light, isolated showers are possible at KCLE, KERI, and KYNG late tonight into early Tuesday morning.

Light winds this morning become south to southwesterly 6-10 knots later today through tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR is possible with periodic rain showers late tonight through Friday.

MARINE

Winds across Lake Eries this morning will continue to be out of the southwest, though will increase throughout the day to 10-15 knots by the evening. By Tuesday morning, winds will increase to 10-20 knots due to a low pressure system moving north of the lake. Waves as a result will build to 3-5 feet across the open waters of the central and eastern basins. The waves in the near shore zones should remain lower due to the off shore flow from the southwest. Winds and waves will begin to subside late Tuesday into Wednesday behind a cold front passing north to south over the lake. By Wednesday morning winds will be less than 10 knots out of the north with waves 2 feet or less. Thursday morning, high pressure briefly builds north of the lake and the winds shift to be out of the northeast at 10-15 knots and persist through the day.

By Friday, a strong low pressure system will pass through the region and winds will increase behind the cold front to near gales Friday evening into Saturday. There's still plenty of uncertainty regarding this system and will need to be monitored over the next few days.

CLIMATE

Temperatures are forecast to be near record high values across Northwest and North Central Ohio on Tuesday. Records for October 13 are listed below for the official climate locations.

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie

10-13 83(1975) 84(1969) 82(1969) 82(1969) 83(1969) 83(1983)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.