textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1.) Period of dry weather continues for 2 more days through Friday.

2.) Rain chances return Friday night through late Saturday.

3.) Another stretch of dry weather expected into next week with temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90F possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Upper level ridge that has built over the deep south will finally begin to break down, but not after two more days of dry weather for the Great Lakes. In the meantime, the gradual warm up for the region will continue with widespread 80s as we finally get into return flow from high pressure shifting off to the southeast. This finally shuts off the northeast winds that plagues the area over the weekend and early this week, and the insolation over dry ground will continue contributing to rising temperatures as well. By Friday, mid to upper 80s will be prevalent for the CWA with upper level flow over the eastern CONUS finally becoming more progressive. KEY MESSAGE 2... Weak cyclonic flow aloft will finally make its way back to the area Friday night with surface low pressure and a cold front approaching from the west. The return flow will provide a significant boost to the dewpoints which will be in the low to mid 60s by Saturday. A prefrontal surface trough brings convection to the area Friday night, aided by PVA and the aforementioned cyclonic flow aloft, and then another wave of convection expected as the cold front moves into the region later Saturday into early Saturday night. Also will expect increases in the low level jet during this time frame beginning Friday night. PWATs will climb to 1.25-1.75 inches supporting heavy convective rain potential.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Upper level ridge builds back in over the Great Lakes beginning Sunday with two main points. The first is the trend back towards drier conditions through the midweek time frame, and the second will be heat building into the region as well where 850mb temperatures hit the upper teens Celsius. This will translate to upper 80s to near 90F in places early next week.

AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/

VFR and dry weather are expected through 18Z/Fri as a high pressure ridge at the surface and aloft continues to affect northern OH and NW PA. Our regional surface winds trend S'erly SW'erly around 5 to 15 knots through the TAF period. These winds should gust up to 20 knots or so at times between ~14Z and ~23Z on Friday. However, a lake breeze will impact locations within several miles of Lake Erie from metro Cleveland to NW PA, including KCLE and KERI, through this early evening. On Friday, a lake breeze is expected to redevelop by late morning and impact locations within several miles of Lake Erie from KBKL and vicinity to NW PA, including KERI, through 18Z/Fri.

Outlook...Periodic and scattered showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are likely Friday night through Saturday night. Otherwise, odds favor dry weather and VFR through this Monday.

MARINE

Mainly quiet marine conditions are expected through the weekend with no headlines anticipated. Flow will increase out of the southwest late Friday through Saturday, 10 to 15 knots, with periods of near 20 knots possible ahead of a low pressure system and cold front. Will need to monitor wind trends, though Small Craft potential remains low at this time. Winds will shift towards the northwest behind the front on Sunday, around 10 knots. Winds will then favor an east to northeast direction by Monday, 10 to 15 knots.

Some thunderstorms are possible with the cold front Saturday afternoon and evening which could pose a strong wind threat.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.