textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, will continue to move east and exit the area by around 7 PM. Damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph are the greatest concern.

2) A stronger low pressure system will develop and move east through the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. Some stronger storms and gusty winds are possible.

3) A compact system will move east through the Central Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms into the area.

KEY MESSAGE 3

A compact shortwave will move east through the Central Great Lakes late Tuesday into Wednesday, resulting in showers and thunderstorms moving east into the area Tuesday evening and overnight. At this time, the greatest risk for any stronger storms appears to be just west of the I-75 corridor, with wind gusts being the primary concern, though will continue to monitor trends for any impacts to our area.

AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/

At 17:20Z/Sun, a surface cold front had just swept SE'ward across KTOL. This front will continue moving SE'ward and should exit the rest of our region by 22Z/Sun. Behind the front, a surface high pressure ridge builds from the northern Great Plains and vicinity through 18Z/Mon. Ahead of the front, our regional surface winds trend SW'erly around 10 to 15 knots and will gust up to 20 to 25 knots at times. Behind the front, winds veer to W'erly to NW'erly around 10 to 15 knots and will gust up to 20 knots at times, especially prior to 00Z/Mon.

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the surface front, while a line of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the surface cold front. Brief MVFR to LIFR and torrential rainfall will accompany these showers and storms. These showers and especially storms will likely produce brief/erratic surface wind gusts up to 30 to 55 knots. Some of these storms may produce hail up to half dollar-size. Behind the surface cold front, widespread MVFR to perhaps IFR ceilings and periods of steady to heavy rain with VFR to MVFR visibility, associated with the upper-reaches of the cold front, are expected to persist for several hours before exiting generally E'ward. Isolated thunderstorms may be embedded in this widespread rain.

Once the widespread rain exits our region, primarily dry weather and VFR are expected through 18Z/Mon. However, scattered to broken lake-effect stratocumuli with bases near 2.5kft to 4kft AGL are expected to stream generally SE'ward from Lake Erie through about mid-morning on Mon. These stratocumuli should produce light to occasionally moderate rain showers through ~13Z/Mon and cause visibility to vary between VFR and MVFR.

Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are forecast Tuesday afternoon through this Friday.

MARINE

Southwest winds to 10 to 15 knots will continue through early this morning. A cold front will move east across the lake today and winds may very briefly increase to around 20 knots in the far western basin immediately behind the cold front this afternoon, although the strongest winds will likely occur in convection this afternoon. There will also be a very brief period of winds right around 20 knots near and east of the Islands later this evening. Small Craft Advisory-level winds may briefly occur during this time, but would like to see how wind observations and model guidance trend before issuing any headlines. If an advisory is issued, it'd be pretty short- fused.

Relatively light winds with periods of winds to 10 to 15 knots are expected through early week. Hazardous marine conditions are expected as a potent low pressure system moves east across the Great Lakes late Wednesday into Thursday. South/southwest winds will increase to 25 to 30 knots by early Thursday morning with locations in the open waters possibly approaching gale force at times through Thursday afternoon as winds become more westerly. Confidence in Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements is high, but may need to consider gale headlines and a Low Water Advisory as the event draws closer.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.