textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast remains on track.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and somewhat mild weather is expected through the day on Wednesday.

2) Cooler with unsettled weather returning late week. While snow may mix in at times starting early Friday, impactful accumulations remain rather unlikely.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Surface to mid level ridge will begin to break down on Wednesday before the arrival of the next system moving into the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. Ahead of this, anticipate for mild and dry conditions to persist tonight into much of the day Wednesday. Some rain showers may begin to arrive around sunset on Wednesday evening ahead of the next system. Lows tonight will settle in the mid 30s, low 30s across inland Northwest Pennsylvania. Highs tomorrow rise into the mid to upper 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Aforementioned surface low and deepening upper trough will push east into the region Wednesday evening. Rain showers will begin to spread west to east across the area around sunset Wednesday with coverage increasing Wednesday night into Thursday as better upper level support moves overhead. The surface low will exit to the east on Thursday with the upper level trough persisting across the Great Lakes region through the remainder of the week. By late Thursday night/early Friday morning cooler air aloft, around -5 to -7C, will move overhead and allow for precipitation to changeover to a rain/snow mix. Best potential for some wet snowflakes mixing in will remain across portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania early Friday morning and again Friday night into Saturday. Impactful accumulations remain unlikely given warmer ground temperatures with the best potential of measurable snow, albeit only a few tenths of an inch, across the higher terrain of Northwest Pennsylvania.

Additionally, northerly to northwesterly winds increase through the day on Thursday with wind gusts 25-30 MPH possible with localized gusts to 35 MPH closer to the lakeshore Thursday afternoon and evening. Northwesterly winds begin to decrease on Friday but it'll remain breezy with gusts to 20-25 MPH possible.

A large area of high pressure will begin to build east into the eastern CONUS late in the weekend and maintain control through early next week. The high will start to dry out mid-levels Saturday into Sunday, though light lake enhanced precipitation may continue into at least part of the weekend. High temperatures Thursday through the weekend will remain in the 40s with overnight lows falling to the mid 20s to low 30s.

AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/

VFR conditions with mostly clear skies are expected through tonight. Westerly winds of 7-12 knots expected through 23Z with some gusts to 25 knots at ERI. Winds will be light tonight trending southerly on Wednesday.

Outlook...Non-VFR will be likely with low ceilings and periods of rain showers Wednesday night through Friday, then lingering across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through the weekend. Some wet snow showers may also be possible at the end of the week and weekend along with gusty winds up to 35 mph.

MARINE

Westerly to northwesterly winds 15-25 knots this afternoon and wave heights 3-6 feet will gradually improve below small craft advisory criteria this afternoon and evening from west to east. Light and variable flow over the lake anticipated for Wednesday.

Next round of rough marine conditions will come Wednesday night through Friday as northeast winds increase to 20-30 knots as a strong low pressure system crosses south of Lake Erie across the Lower Ohio Valley. The period of strongest winds over the lake will occur Thursday afternoon and evening. Additional marine headlines will be needed for this late week system. The probabilities for gale force winds continue to decrease.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ145>147. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ148- 149.