textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes in the overall thoughts for the weather pattern through the first part of the weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled southwesterly flow aloft with an oscillating frontal boundary south and north of the CWA through the first part of the weekend.

2) Strong Saturday night cold front changes the airmass and conditions across the region for a chillier end of the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE #1: The cold front dropping southward through the area this morning will settle briefly just north of the Ohio River valley by late Wednesday before lifting back north through the CWA as a warm front Thursday. This is going to represent yet another dramatic swing in the temperatures for the region, which will take much of the CWA back to the 40s today (except for the far southern zones), and then as the warm front passes Thursday, back to the 70s once again. Will continue to have to deal with isentropic lift Wednesday north of the boundary, and bands of low/mid level f-gen setting up as well, which will keep the rain off and on through Wednesday, and less coverage/frequency Wednesday night. Once the warm front passes through on Thursday, a brief drier period is expected in the warm sector with largely only isolated showers in overall drier flow. A series of surface troughs and weak areas of upper level PVA keep the shower/storm potential going through through Friday night. Perhaps some strong to severe storms again late Thursday/Thursday night for the western zones. QPF amounts should be overall on the lighter side for any given wave of showers or storms rolling through, which is critical in order to let the watersheds catch up after very active convective activity that occurred Tuesday evening with high rainfall amounts.

KEY MESSAGE #2: Outside of today, after another period of well above average temperatures, a strong cold front moves through Saturday night, likely accompanied by a line of showers and storms as 70s turn into mid 40s to mid 50s for the latter portion of the forecast taking us to early next week. Likely to be drier under high pressure once the front moves through Sunday through Monday. A reinforcement to the upper level trough comes through for Tuesday with chilly rain showers, perhaps mixed in with wet flakes Tuesday morning.

AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

The stronger convection has wound down, but will get continued off and on rain through much of the TAF for all terminals. Expect fluctuations in the observations in and out of rain where Ifr will be expected as well at times, but MVFR and brief VFR cannot be ruled out. A cold front comes through over the first few hours, and will see ceilings drop to IFR by 12Z today, and once those low ceilings settle in, they are not going to lift any time soon. Some AMDs will be needed as POP forecasts change through the overnight period. Winds turn northerly, generally less than 12kts behind the cold front.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in showers and low ceilings Wednesday night. Additional periods of non-VFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms late Thursday into Thursday night

MARINE

With a cold front crossing the lake this morning, winds are shifting to the north and eventually northeast. The front will lift back north tonight into Thursday, as a warm front. Stronger easterly winds of 15 to 20 kts will be present on the lake on Thursday morning and then shift to the south with the warm frontal passage. Low pressure will pass the lake to the northwest on Friday. The increased pressure gradient across the region should allow for some enhanced southwest flow of 15 to 20 kts over the lake and anything slightly stronger could necessitate a Small Craft Advisory need. A weak cold front will pass through the lake Friday evening, ending the stronger winds. This front will return as a warm front early Saturday and elevated southwest flow will return to the basin. A stronger cold front will move through the region on Saturday night and elevated west winds will be favored into Sunday. There will be potential for a Small Craft Advisory for this weekend.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.