textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry conditions will continue through Saturday.

2) Shower and thunderstorm chances return Sunday through Tuesday. Strong to severe storms are possible, mainly on Monday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure continues to influence the region through Saturday with seasonable temperatures expected. A shortwave aloft will swing east across the Upper Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening hours today. The majority of the area should remain dry but have introduced low-end rain chances along and south of US-30 later today for any isolated showers that may develop. Isolated showers and storms are expected along and east of I-77 Saturday morning and afternoon as mid-level moisture increases.

High temperatures will rise into the low 80s today and Saturday. Overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s tonight with warmer lows in the mid 60s Saturday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Active weather is expected to return early next week as a ridge over the western United States builds and allows for a trough to dig south across the the Great Lakes region. Surface low pressure will usher in a strong LLJ over a moist airmass with dew points in the upper 60s. This will increase the potential for clusters of thunderstorms. Strong to severe storms remain possible, particularly on Monday, as highlighted by the SPC Severe Risk area. Shower and thunderstorm chances linger into mid-week as the aforementioned low pushes east across the Lower Great Lakes. A fair amount of uncertainty remains in timing, coverage, and intensity of storms given the conditional nature of this setup.

AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/

VFR continues today. SCT-BKN cumulus field FL045 with heating again today, dissipating with evening/sunset time. ENE winds less than 10kts at the surface near the lakeshore, SE winds for CAK/YNG today also less than 10kts.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with periodic showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday.

MARINE

Northeasterly wind speed increases expected again in the central basin of Lake Erie today, kicking up wave heights to 1-2ft in this area, and around a foot for the rest of the lake. Calmer conditions expected Saturday with a weaker pressure gradient, and although slightly offshore fetch is expected, winds will be less than 10kts and waves around a foot are expected again. Southwesterlies kick in Sunday through Monday around 10kts, increasing to 15-20kts ahead of a cold front Tuesday morning when onshore northwesterly winds are expected through Tuesday 10-20kts.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.