textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased forecast high temperatures for this late afternoon and decreased surface dew points through this early evening based on latest trends in observations and model guidance. Expect abundant sunshine, relatively-deep diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer amidst late afternoon 850 mb temperatures near 8C to 11C, low-level WAA, and a fairly tight SE'erly MSLP gradient on the synoptic-scale to allow late afternoon highs to reach the mid 60's to lower 70's in most of our CWA. Near-record warm highs are now forecast in parts of our CWA today, especially roughly along and west of I-71. The deeper diurnal convective mixing of the boundary layer will tap into drier air just aloft through this late afternoon, which will result in somewhat lower surface dew points and RH values than forecast previously.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm, breezy conditions, and periods of moderate to heavy rainfall as well as a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. Rain may briefly transition over to snow Wednesday night into Thursday.

2) A clipper system will track east across the Great Lakes on Friday which may bring a chance for rain and snow to the local area.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... An upper level trough will track from the Central Plains into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region midweek. A warm front will lift across the area on Tuesday. A surface developing low pressure system will track from the Midwest and across the southern Great Lakes region.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with with mid- level frontogenesis will be the first round convection to impact the region Tuesday evening into overnight. Instability will be moderately unstable with deep layer shear to support some hail potential, perhaps some damaging wind gusts as well. Our area will be in the warm sector on Wednesday. Pre-frontal thunderstorms are expected during the day Wednesday. The wind field will be very strong to support organized severe convection. The question that remains is how much instablilty will be available to materialize due to morning showers and considerable cloud cover. Confidence in thunderstorms and subsequent severe weather is more likely the farther south and east you go within our forecast area.

Heavy rainfall is likely during the midweek time frame. The average QPF will be around 1.25-1.5" Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. High-end localized amounts up to 2" could be possible. Localized nuisance flooding is possible. The cold front will move through early Wednesday evening. The rain showers mad end with some wet snowflakes Wednesday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A rather strong clipper system will track quickly eastward through the Upper Great Lakes on Friday. This end of the week system may bring a round of light rain and snow to the local area with strong gusty winds. Although some uncertainty exists in the strength of the system, confidence is increasing for potential wind gusts to reach at least 40 mph or higher.

AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/

VFR across the TAF sites this morning with deterioration to MVFR ceilings towards the end of the TAF period, associated with low ceilings. Some drizzle and/or light rain shower activity may accompany the lower ceilings. Potential also exists for lower ceilings (IFR), particularly along and west of the I-71 corridor, and may need to be included in future TAF packages.

Winds are generally out of the south to southwest early this morning, 10 to 12 knots. Winds will increase to 15 to 18 knots later this morning and afternoon with periodic gusts of 25 to 28 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday followed by rain briefly transitioning to snow Wednesday night into Thursday. Non-VFR may return in scattered rain/snow showers on Friday combined with gusty southwest winds.

MARINE

Mainly quiet marine conditions will persist through Tuesday with generally offshore flow around 10 to 15 knots. Will continue to monitor the potential for some organized thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday for strong wind and hail potential, particularly across the western basin of Lake Erie. Otherwise, southwest winds will increase to around 20 knots Wednesday afternoon, shifting towards the northwest and briefly increasing to 20 to 25 knots Wednesday night behind a cold front. The next period of concern across the region will be on Friday as a strong clipper system moves east through the Great Lakes, ushering in south to southwest winds of 25 to 30 knots across Lake Erie. Winds may briefly touch Gale at times Friday morning and afternoon and will continue to be monitored.

Above average temperatures and elevated winds will result in continued shifting and decay of ice across Lake Erie through mid- week.

CLIMATE

High temperatures are forecast to approach records today and Tuesday, March 10th. Here are the record warm high temperatures at area climate sites for March 9th and 10th.

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 03-09 68(2021) 71(2016) 73(1878) 73(2016) 73(2016) 74(2000) 03-10 72(2021) 72(1973) 72(1973) 73(1973) 69(2021) 72(2021)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.