textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast for this issuance. Keeping up with some higher confidence and higher snow amounts in NW PA/NE OH. Quiet into the end of the week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periods of lake effect snow showers likely across portions of the snowbelt region of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Tuesday night in through early Thursday.

2) High pressure moves in for the end of the week and the beginning of the weekend as temperatures trend towards normal.

KEY MESSAGE 2

High pressure moves back into the region for the end of the week and the first part of the weekend with temperatures that will be trending back towards more normal values for mid February, and this means daytime highs above freezing heading into the weekend. Largely quiet and dry otherwise. Will be watching a southern stream low pressure system passing to the south of the area.

AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/

VFR out of the gate this morning. A cold front will cross from west to east late morning through the afternoon. There is some potential for isolated rain showers to develop along the front before it exits to the east...have a PROB30 included at ERI, and it can't be ruled out at CAK or YNG either though with <30% confidence at the latter two. Otherwise, all should remain VFR ahead of the front. A brief period of MVFR ceilings will likely affect some sites just behind the front. More widespread MVFR stratus arrives later this evening and persists overnight at most or all sites. Some minor lake effect snow showers will be possible starting after 6z, with some transient vsby restrictions also possible at CLE, ERI, and YNG.

South-southwest winds will increase to 8-15kt (with a few stronger gusts at ERI) ahead of the front this morning and early afternoon, shifting more west-northwest late this afternoon and evening behind the front. A few 20-25kt wind gusts could occur at most sites along and just behind the front. Also have a window of LLWS at most sites ahead of the front, as a 40-45kt southwesterly low-level jet overspreads the area this morning and early afternoon. Prolonged the mention of it compared to the previous forecast, as forecast soundings do not suggest good mixing until near or even just after the frontal passage.

Outlook...Non-VFR may linger at times in minor lake effect snow showers Wednesday and Wednesday night across parts of Northeast OH and Northwest PA.

MARINE

Lake Erie remains nearly completely ice-covered. Satellite and analysis depict an area of thinner ice extending from east of the Lake Erie Islands to along the northern shoreline. There are also multiple large cracks in the ice across the central basin. South winds increase to 10-15kt this morning ahead of a cold front, shifting west-northwest at 15-20kt this evening and tonight behind the front. West-northwest winds persist at 15-20kt through Wednesday, before gradually weakening Wednesday night and Thursday.

The milder temperatures and offshore flow today increases the risk of ice floes breaking away from the southern shoreline of Lake Erie, noting that satellite imagery has shown some movement and new cracks in the ice over the last couple days over the central basin.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.