textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No impactful changes were made with this morning's forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Nicer and drier weather will arrive today for most of the area. Scattered lake effect rain showers will continue to impact far NEOH and NWPA today through early Tuesday.

2) A weak cold front will move across the Great Lakes region late Wednesday night into Thursday with the next chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered lake effect rain showers and isolated thunder will continue to impact the "Snowbelt" area of far Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania today through tonight. A deep upper level trough has developed over the eastern half of the Great Lakes this morning and will slowly move eastward by tomorrow. The backside of this trough will continue to bring a cooler northerly flow over the eastern Great Lakes today and tonight before it finally pulls away Tuesday. Therefore, scattered lake effect rain showers will continue over NEOH and NWPA through early Tuesday morning. Rain chances or POPS will be likely today and gradually decrease overnight into early Tuesday morning.

For the rest of northern and central Ohio, nicer weather will return today with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and drier weather. High pressure will build across the Ohio Valley today and continue to bring very nice weather through Wednesday. High temperatures will be cooler today with upper 60s in far NEOH and NWPA where there will be more clouds and showers from lake effect. North central and Northwest Ohio will have more sunshine with passing scattered clouds and high temps in the lower to middle 70s. It will also feel less humid with the drier airmass moving. High temps will slowly climb over the next few days reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday areawide. Overnight low temps will be in the 50s away from the immediate lakeshore.

KEY MESSAGE 2.. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Wednesday night through Thursday evening with a weak, slow moving cold front across the Great Lakes region. The latest model guidance has trended slightly downward on POPs and QPF. At this time, it appears there will be scattered showers and some thunder possible with the greater POPs around 40 to 50 percent during day Thursday. Severe weather is not expected at this as the thermodynamics looks fairly weak. High pressure will build back into the region on Friday with warm and nice day. High temperatures will climb through next weekend with lower to middle 80s across the area.

AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/

Main potential impacts this TAF period are lake effect clouds and rain showers across parts of Northeast OH and Northwest PA, and slightly elevated west-northwest winds increasing to 10-15kt with some 20-25kt gusts late this morning into this afternoon. Main impacts from the lake effect will be at ERI, where occasional and mainly short-lived vsby restrictions are possible with any showers that impact the field. There is an uptick in activity occurring now, with another uptick likely mid to late afternoon...have TEMPOs for both windows. A shower may try developing near CLE before 14z, though thus far that has not taken shape that far west so confidence is too low for any inclusion in the TAF. Cumulus around 040-050 will become SCT- BKN across Northeast OH and Northwest PA this afternoon, with VFR conditions and only FEW-SCT cumulus farther west. Some patchy fog/mist is likely early Tuesday morning near the end of the TAF period, and began a light mention at the prone sites.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible at times in lake effect rain and/or low ceilings in NW PA into Tuesday. Non-VFR may return in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday.

MARINE

Brisk west-northwest winds in the 15-25 knot range will continue through this afternoon, before subsiding to 10-15 knots tonight as high pressure builds out of the Ohio Valley. Winds will diminish to 10 knots or less and become more variable on Tuesday as high pressure moves overhead, before shifting south at near 10 knots Tuesday night and Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. This weak cold front crosses the lake Wednesday night into Thursday, increasing winds slightly to 10-15 knots and veering them to a more southwesterly direction. Waves of 3 to 7 feet will continue across the central and eastern basin through this afternoon before gradually subsiding from west to east late today through Tuesday. All ongoing headlines remain as posted east of the Islands before expiring from west to east late this afternoon or evening. Waterspouts remain possible on Lake Erie with any shower activity through Tuesday morning, especially across the eastern basin.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for OHZ009-010. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for OHZ011-012- 089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ144- 145. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LEZ146>149.