textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periodic showers and thunderstorms likely through the end of the week with a chance for a few strong storms Thursday afternoon and evening.

2) Below normal temperatures through Wednesday, with a warming trend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... After a dry period today and Wednesday, a trough will dive south from Central Canada down into the Great Lakes region late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. At the surface, a low pressure will move west to east into the region lifting a warm front north across Ohio and Pennsylvania. Surface winds will shift to be out of the south behind the front increasing temperatures and dew points across the region. Additionally, there will be some isentropic lift with the front that will develop showers and possibly a few thunderstorms early Thursday morning into the mid day. This precipitation will linger throughout the day, though there may be a brief break in the afternoon ahead of the cold front. There will be decent jet support with the front with enough instability from the advecting warm, moist air mass from the south that would support a few strong to severe thunderstorms. The general area would be along and east of I- 71. Though, this will also be dependent on how the morning precipitation shapes up and if there will be enough recovery across the region to be able to support severe weather. The cold front should clear the region to the south and east late Thursday evening ending any severe weather potential.

The cold front will stale to the south across the Ohio River Valley on Friday and waver north to south through Saturday. This will provide periodic showers and a few thunderstorms across the region, mainly south of the US 30 corridor. A supporting shortwave will move through the Ohio River Valley on Friday that will push precipitation further north and bring more moisture into the region. This will be fighting drier air from high pressure situated across the Northern Great Lakes and will most likely limit the northward extent of the precipitation. Upper level ridging begins to build into Eastern CONUS on Saturday and will dry out the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Temperatures over the next couple of days will continue to be below average with the northerly flow across the region. Highs today will be in the 70s and approach the low 80s on Wednesday with overnight lows tonight in the mid to low 50s. Behind the warm front on temperatures will begin a warming trend, though will be slightly muted due to the rainfall and increased cloud cover. Highs will be in the 80s with dew points climbing up into the low to mid 60s with the southerly flow. By Sunday, as high pressure begins to build across the region, temperatures will increase further and continue into early next week. There's fairly good agreement that high temperatures by the start of next week will approach, if not exceed, 90 for much of the region outside of the area around the lakeshore. Additionally, this will bring a more humid air mass as well, and heat indices will be elevated as well.

AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/

VFR across the TAF sites this afternoon with mainly VFR to persist through the TAF period. There is some concern for IFR mist and/or patchy fog to develop at CAK/YNG late tonight into Wednesday morning. Will continue to monitor if vsbys trend any lower into LIFR territory.

Otherwise, winds are generally north to northwest this afternoon, 8 to 12 knots with isolated gusts up to 20 knots. Winds will become light and variable overnight, favoring a slight southerly direction by late Wednesday morning, around 5 knots. A lake breeze will develop at CLE/ERI late Wednesday morning/early afternoon, 6 to 8 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday, and again on Friday night into Saturday.

MARINE

North winds of 10-15 knots with waves of 1 to 3 feet on the central basin of Lake Erie this morning will decrease today as high pressure builds south into the region. Generally good marine conditions with winds of 15 knots or less will continue through Wednesday. Southwest winds increase to 10-20 knots on Thursday ahead of a cold front. Thunderstorms will be possible near or over Lake Erie on Thursday which may result in erratic wind and wave conditions. Onshore flow of 5-15 knots is likely heading into the weekend with high pressure to the north and the frontal boundary stalled somewhere over the Ohio Valley.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.