textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Freeze Watch has been issued for most of the forecast area for late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain and gusty winds continue into Saturday in the wake of a cold front.

2) Dry conditions with colder air behind the front as high pressure builds into the region. A Freeze Watch has been issued Saturday night into Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Areawide rain showers and gusty winds 25-30 MPH continue through this afternoon and evening as a surface trough remains draped across the region. As the trough continues to sink south across Northern Ohio, rain showers will transition into lake effect rain downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Huron tonight into early Saturday morning. Given the Lake Huron connection, the primary area of lake effect rain showers will remain situated between the I-71 and I-77 corridors. Any remaining gusty winds will gradually diminish through the overnight hours as high pressure gradually builds into the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Aforementioned high pressure will build into the area from the west this weekend leading to a period of dry but cold conditions. Effective radiative cooling under the high on Saturday night will lead to widespread low temperatures in the low to mid 30s and possibly the upper 20s in some locations. A Freeze Watch has been issued for nearly all zones in the forecast area with the exception of Lake County and the lakeshore zones of Ashtabula and Erie County PA where lows may be a bit warmer given the proximity to the relatively warmer waters of Lake Erie. Temperatures will begin to moderate into early next week as high pressure builds to the east of the region.

AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/

The steadiest rain will slowly end from north to south over the next 3 hours as a sharp trough crosses the region. This will maintain mainly MVFR to low end VFR cigs and vis, with dips to IFR possible in the heaviest showers. Expect the bulk of the showers to be done by 03Z at KTOL, KFDY, and KMFD with cigs slowly improving to mainly VFR, but a transition to narrow bands of lake-effect showers will keep lower cigs and vis and rain at times around KCLE, KCAK, and KYNG well into the overnight. These lake effect showers should stay west of KERI, so kept coverage at VCSH there overnight. The highest confidence for lake effect showers is in north central and NE Ohio overnight, but timing the brief bursts of heavier rain is uncertain. Overall, KCLE, KCAK, and KYNG will fluctuate most of the night from VFR and dry conditions to MVFR in rain. All sites should be dry and VFR by 12Z as high pressure builds in.

Winds will sharply veer to N behind the trough this evening, with gusts up to 30 knots at times before N winds diminish to 5-10 knots by Saturday morning into the afternoon.

Outlook...Mainly VFR expected.

MARINE

Rough marine conditions continue under the surface trough as west to northwest winds remain between 25-30 knots and wave heights up to 6-9 feet. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect across the entire lake Saturday late morning and early afternoon. North winds will gradually diminish to 10-15 knots Saturday night into Sunday with wave heights subsiding to 3 feet or less under high pressure. Light winds of 10 knots or less are expected Sunday into the middle of next week as high pressure remains in control.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for OHZ003-006>011-013-014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047. PA...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for PAZ002-003. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142-143- 149. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ144>148.