textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The severe weather risk has diminished across the area and generally expect widespread rain early this morning. Winds along the lakeshore of NE OH and NW PA have trended a bit higher for this morning and afternoon so have expanded the Wind Advisory through northern Erie County, PA.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Gusty winds are expected behind a cold front today.

2) More seasonable temperatures and potential for accumulating snow return to the area this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Widespread morning rain will lift northeast out of the area early this morning as a cold front begins to move east into the local area. The tightened pressure gradient and southerly flow in the warm sector will result in potentially gusty winds due to downsloping along the lakeshore of NW PA and there could be periodic gusts to 35 to 45 mph early this morning. Winds will increase behind the front and expect peak southwest wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph along/west of I-71 and along the lakeshore as the best forcing moves across the area this afternoon into early this evening. A Wind Advisory remains in place for this area of concern from 7 AM to 7 PM today and have expanded the advisory east along the remainder of the lakeshore to include northern Ashtabula and Erie counties. Opted to start the advisory at 09Z/4 AM in northern Erie County PA to account for the potential for stronger winds due to downsloping ahead of the cold front. Confidence in the early morning wind gusts for NW PA is a little bit lower than this afternoon, but probabilistic HREF data and several high res models support the expansion in the Wind Advisory. The main limiting factor could be stratiform rainfall preventing mixing, although relatively dry lower levels due to downsloping could allow mixing to be a bit more efficient. Winds may remain elevated in the 30 to 40 mph range primarily along the lakeshore of NE OH/NW PA through Midnight, but largely expect winds to diminish tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Temperatures will follow a non-diurnal trend today with temps decreasing behind the cold front during the day today. Light lake effect rain showers are likely across NW PA and possibly NE OH late this afternoon before transitioning to light snow showers through much of Saturday as temperatures decrease this evening and upper troughing lingers over the lower Great Lakes. There may be a very brief period of light freezing rain across the higher terrain of NW PA, but impacts are not anticipated.

The better shot of cold air will arrive as a developing low pressure system moves east across the Great Lakes on Sunday. Temperatures are expected to return to near normal values with widespread snow likely across the majority of the area Sunday. Snow accumulations will vary across the area with the highest totals anticipated across the eastern half of the area. There's still some uncertainty in the QPF and resulting snowfall totals due to relatively low confidence in the placement of a developing coastal low, but there could be impacts due to slippery roadways and reduced visibilities. Strong cold air advection/northwest flow behind this system will likely result in lake effect snow showers through at least Monday. The highest probability of more impactful accumulations will be across the typical snowbelt areas of NE OH and NW PA, but will need to keep an eye on the entire CWA since most deterministic guidance suggests lake effect snow from the upstream Great Lakes occurring across most of the area.

AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/

A strong occluded front is making its way across the area this afternoon, bringing with it strong winds. Ahead of the boundary there are primarily VFR ceilings are being observed, but along and behind the front there are widespread MVFR ceilings. These ceilings will push east, keeping all terminals in MVFR conditions for the bulk of this TAF period. This front will also bring the potential for some light rain/snow showers, especially across the eastern terminals. Opted to include a chance of rain/snow in TEMPOs for KYNG and KERI near 00z then persist at KERI through 08Z Saturday.

As previously mentioned, strong winds are expected with this cold front across the area. Winds sustained from the southwest at 20-30 knots will periodically gust up to 40 knots this afternoon. After 00Z these winds will gain a more westerly component and very slowly begin to weaken in strength with 30 knot gusts possible through 06Z and 20 knots possible through 12Z Saturday. After that, area winds will become sustained at 10-12 knots through the end of the period.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions continue into the weekend with low ceilings on Saturday and snow returning Sunday and Monday.

MARINE

A low pressure system will continue to slowly drift east today into tonight, keeping elevated winds possible across Lake Erie. Observations this afternoon are generally from the southwest sustained at 20-25 knots, gusting up to 35-40 knots at times. These strong winds are expected to persist through the evening, keeping the risk of ice floes across Lake Erie elevated. Any ice that breaks/shifts has the potential to strand people who are on the ice or close shipping lanes. It is still strongly encouraged to stay off the ice today.

As this low shifts east, a lingering surface trough will result in winds shifting to become northwesterly by Sunday at 10-15 knots. This surface trough will merge with a strong low pressure system that is expected to move up the East Coast Sunday into Monday, gradually increasing the gradient across Lake Erie. Winds from the north-northwest will increase late Sunday into Monday to be sustained at 20-25 knots. These winds will weaken on Tuesday as a surface ridge nudges north to be sustained at 10-15 knots. Another low pressure system is expected to impact the region midweek.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for OHZ003-006>014- 017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089. PA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for PAZ001>003. MARINE...None.