textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Severe weather concerns are increasing, especially for this evening through Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1.) Active weather returns this evening through Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms are possible.

2.) Primarily colder temperatures and additional periods of unsettled weather are expected later this week through early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... There is stalled frontal boundary located from west to east across the southern Great Lakes region this morning. In the mid and upper levels, there is a west-southwest flow aloft. Warm, moist air advection is pooling south of this frontal boundary setting up the stage for a battleground with storms.

As for today, some scattered showers and thunderstorms may try to develop closer to the stalled frontal boundary across the southern Great Lakes. Locally, this scattered convection would be closer to the lakeshore or over Lake Erie. This convection is not the main show. An upper level trough will move from the Central Plains eastward into the Midwest and Great Lakes tonight into Wednesday. Scattered strong to severe convection is expected to develop west of our area this afternoon and early evening. These showers and storms will move into northwest Ohio and western Lake Erie later this evening and overnight. All modes of severe weather is possible with Damaging winds as the main threat. The secondary threat will be isolated tornadoes as the area is highlighted by SPC as a low 2 to 5 percent probability. Some small to large hail could be possible. Most of northern Ohio and northwest Pennyslvania is in the marginal risk, northwest Ohio is under a slight risk for severe storms tonight. See the latest Day 1 outlook from SPC for the latest severe weather potential.

A surface low will track northeastward from southeast Michigan through southern Ontario on Wednesday with a trailing cold front. This cold front will move from west to east during the midday and afternoon on Wednesday. SPC has most of northern Ohio and northwest Pennyslvania in a slight risk for severe weather. Northwest Ohio is under a marginal risk level. The main severe weather hazard on Wednesday will be damaging wind gusts followed by an isolated tornado threat. SPC again has the area highlighted in a low 2 to 5 percent probability for a low end tornado threat. Some small hail could also be possible. A broken line of strong to severe convection is expected to develop along that cold front pushing through the area Wednesday afternoon. Any kinks or surges in the line of storms will be the favored area for damaging wind gusts and possible QLCS tornadoes. Behind the cold front Wednesday evening, temperatures will drop and rain will end from west to east.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A somewhat unsettled and colder weather pattern is expected later this week through early next week. A fast moving clipper system will track through the Great Lakes region on Friday. This system will bring a round of rain showers and windy weather. With this onset of the rain showers moving in Friday morning, there could be some west snow mixed before temperature warm up. It will become windy on Friday with southwest to westerly winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts easily over 40 mph. We will have to watch trends for a possible wind advisory.

The next weather system to watch and potentially more impactful will be Sunday through Monday. A deep upper level trough will develop over the central U.S. and into the Great Lakes region Sunday into Monday. A stronger low pressure system will track through the southern Great Lakes Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. A strong cold front will move through Sunday night. Ahead of that cold front, temperatures will be mild on Sunday in the 60s. Behind the cold front Sunday night, temperatures will crash into the 20s. Rain will change over to snow as the colder air moves in and light snow will continue into Monday. The widespread light snow will transition to lake effect snow as much colder air aloft wakes or the lake effect Monday into Tuesday. Several inches of snowfall may be possible early next week. Stay tuned!

AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/

Mixed-bag of low-end VFR and MVFR ceilings across the TAF sites this morning. A mix of low-end VFR and MVFR ceilings will persist through this morning, before lifting to VFR or even scattering out by this afternoon. Attention then turns to later tonight as a line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to move east into the area. Te highest confidence for direct impacts will be along the lakeshore near the warm front (TOL/CLE/ERI) where tempo groups have been introduced. Have also introduced vcts elsewhere as nocturnal convection is anticipated to increase in coverage areawide, though confidence in placement is low.

Winds are generally out of the south to southwest this morning 8 to 12 knots. Winds will mainly remain out of the south to southwest through the TAF period, 8 to 12 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday followed by rain briefly transitioning to snow Wednesday night into Thursday. Non-VFR may return in scattered rain/snow showers on Friday. Confidence is increasing for widespread strong west to southwest winds on Friday.

MARINE

Will continue to monitor the potential for organized, strong thunderstorms tonight into Wednesday, particularly across the west and central basins of Lake Erie. Otherwise, a cold front will briefly usher in west to northwest flow of 20 to 25 knots Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The next period of concern will be on Friday as a strong low pressure system moves east through the Great Lakes. West to southwest winds continue to trend stronger, with 25 to 35 knots becoming more likely, especially Friday afternoon. A Gale Watch may be needed in the next couple of days. Will also continue to monitor another system on Sunday which could first usher in south to southwest flow of 25 to 30 knots, shifting towards the west Sunday night into Monday behind a cold front.

Above average temperatures into Wednesday and elevated winds will result in continued shifting and decay of ice across Lake Erie.

CLIMATE

Daily high temperatures are forecast to approach records through March 11th. Here are the record warm high temperatures at area climate sites for March 10th and 11th.

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 03-10 72(2021) 72(1973) 72(1973) 73(1973) 69(2021) 72(2021) 03-11 76(1990) 72(1990) 73(1977) 72(1977) 70(1977) 72(2021)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.