textproduct: Cleveland

SYNOPSIS

A surface trough will linger across the Great Lakes region today into Wednesday before an area of low pressure moves through the eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday. The low will drag a cold front southeast across the region Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure begins to build into the region on Friday and persist into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

TLDR: Biggest change to the forecast on this shift was to make some adjustments to the winter weather headlines, both in severity and in time. The Winter Weather Advisories for Summit, Portage, and Trumbull Counties remain unchanged and will expire at 1 PM today as lake effect showers ease. Elsewhere, expanded the Lake Effect Snow Warning to include Ashtabula, Lake, and Northern Erie (PA) Counties where confidence in warning amounts of snow are the highest. Maintained the Winter Weather Advisory for Cuyahoga County given lower confidence in 6+ inches of snowfall with the next round of lake effect snow. The Advisory for Cuyahoga County and the Lake Effect Snow Warning for the Ohio Counties (Geauga, Lake, Ashtabula) are now in effect through 7 AM Thursday. The Lake Effect Snow Warning for Northwest Pennsylvania is in effect through 7 PM Thursday.

Persistent areawide lake effect snow showers are expected to last through late this morning/early this afternoon before becoming focused over the primary Snowbelt as winds back westerly. Additional snowfall accumulations with the lingering lake effect snow through this afternoon will generally range between 1 and 3 inches across Northeast Ohio and 3 to 5 inches across Northwest Pennsylvania. Blowing and drifting snow will continue to be a concern through this afternoon as snow ratios remain in the 18:1 to 20:1 range and northwesterly winds continue to gust to 25-30 MPH. Anticipate for winds to ease through the day today as they turn westerly to southwesterly. There will be a very brief window this evening where the ongoing lake effect snow showers diminish ahead of another impactful period of lake effect snow sets up across the region tonight and lasts through Thursday. The initial redevelopment of lake effect snow will remain hugged against the Lake Erie lakeshore tonight under westerly mean layer flow. Simultaneously, a weak clipper system will push east across the region overnight tonight bringing 1-2" of snowfall across much of the region. However, higher snowfall amounts of 3-6" will be possible along the lakeshore where the initial lake effect band sets up.

Lake effect snowfall continues on Wednesday but will quickly ramp up in coverage and intensity Wednesday afternoon/evening as a strong upper trough and surface cold front push south across the local area. Expect widespread snowfall and continued lake effect snowfall to impact the region Wednesday evening. Increasing winds ahead of and with the crossing trough axis will increase the potential for snow squalls Wednesday evening, particularly across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. The timing is less than ideal given the holiday evening and hazardous travel conditions possible NYE night. Plan accordingly.

Highs in the mid 20s this afternoon will rise a few degrees to the upper 20s on Wednesday. Lows tonight fall into the upper teens with wind chills in the single digits.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Lake effect snowfall will continue overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning before gradually tapering off through the Thursday evening as low levels dry out. Another upper level shortwave may clip extreme northeast portions of the forecast area on Thursday night into Friday which may reinvigorate lake effect snow showers. However, there remains a bit of uncertainty given the approaching ridge of high pressure and dry air across the region.

Much cooler Wednesday night behind the crossing cold front with lows dropping into the single digits to low tens and wind chill values near zero Thursday morning. Highs on Thursday settle in the lower 20s with lows in the teens and single digit wind chills likely Thursday night. Slightly warmer by Friday with highs in the upper 20s though overnight lows in the teens are expected.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Quieter weather expected this weekend under high pressure. Models continue to hint at a weak low pressure system moving east across the Great Lakes region Sunday night into Monday. This low could lead to another window of lake effect snow across the Snowbelt to begin the first full week of 2026. Highs in the upper 20s to low 30s and overnight lows in the upper teens to lower 20s through the long term.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Lake effect snow continues across the typical snowbelt area west of I-77 in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through this evening. Ceilings of 1500-3500 ft are expected, with variable visibilities in the 2-5 SM range, though could be briefly as low as 1/2SM at times. West wind of 12-15 knots with gusts up to 20-30 knots this afternoon will subside to 10-12 knots with gusts up to 20 knots this evening.

A weak clipper system will bring a period of light snow focused on the western half of the forecast area (along and west of I-77) with visibilities in the 1-2SM range for about 3-6 hours late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, lake effect snow will redevelop and intensify along the lakeshore late tonight with westerly flow. Moderate to heavy snow is likely to impact KERI, with visibilities persistently at or below 1 SM, and down to 1/4SM at times. As flow becomes west- northwest, should see lake effect snow impacting the rest of the forecast area with periodic visibilities at or below 2 SM. Westerly winds will be on the rise Wednesday afternoon, with gusts in the 25-30 knot range.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions are expected across the region due to lake effect snow through Thursday night and then with low clouds Friday through Saturday.

MARINE

Gale Warnings continue across Lake Erie today, though conditions will be improving with winds and waves diminishing from west to east. The warnings will should be allow to expire in the open waters and downgraded in the nearshore at their respective times but can be adjusted as needed should conditions improve quick enough. That being said, after this evening winds will generally be out of the west to southwest at 15-25 knots through Friday. There will be points of elevated winds in the central and eastern basins as a cold front and trough traverse the lake Wednesday evening through Thursday morning though should stay below gales. Waves will stay elevated as well being between 8-15 feet in the central and eastern basins and 4-7 feet west of the islands through this evening. Waves won't begin to subside east of the islands until Friday evening when the winds begin to weaken across the lake. Quieter marine conditions are expected to start the weekend as high pressure builds into the region from the west.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for OHZ011. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Thursday for OHZ012>014-089. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for OHZ021>023. PA...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for PAZ001>003. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ142>144. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Thursday for LEZ145>147. Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ148-149-168- 169.