textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Tranquil and pleasant conditions through the end of the week.

2) Chances for showers and thunderstorms return this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure builds east across the Ohio Valley through Friday. Dry conditions are expected to continue through the end of the week with cooler than average conditions under broad northerly flow. Patchy fog remains possible across inland locations along and east of I-71.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Unsettled weather returns this weekend as an upper level trough and associated surface low push into the Great Lakes region. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase from west to east overnight Friday into Saturday. There remains some disagreement across models on the placement and trajectory of the weak surface low and closed mid-level low which will ultimately determine coverage and timing of showers and storms, particularly on Saturday. By Sunday, the upper trough glides east across the local area allowing for rain chances to gradually diminish from west to east through Sunday evening. Generally anticipate coverage to remain isolated to scattered during periods of showers and thunderstorms this weekend. Any showers and storms that occur will be capable of producing heavy rain as PWAT values rise to 1.75-2.00 inches Saturday into Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/

VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period with high pressure across the region. Winds will continue to favor a general northerly direction through this evening. Sky conditions should be generally clear but some afternoon cumulus may develop in NW Ohio. As high pressure moves east, winds will back to the southwest for Friday morning. Some MVFR visibility may be possible at KCAK and KYNG on Friday morning.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with patchy fog in Eastern Ohio and Western Pennsylvania tonight into Friday morning. Non-VFR conditions in scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

MARINE

Winds over Lake Erie are diminishing this morning with 10 to 15 kts in the central basin and waves falling under 3 ft. Therefore, all marine headlines have been allowed to expire. High pressure will build in today and linger through Friday. Light northwest flow will remain over the lake today and will shift to the south on Friday with high pressure moving east. For the weekend, a low pressure system will approach from the west and slowly move south of the lake on Sunday. This system will bring the chance of showers and storms to the region. East to northeast flow will be favored on Saturday and waves 1 to 2 ft will be possible around the Lake Erie Islands region. Winds will increase a bit for Sunday and become more northerly and waves 1 to 3 ft will be possible, especially for the western and central basins. High pressure will build from the northwest for early next week and northeast flow will return to the basin and allow for waves 1 to 3 ft to remain possible. No marine headlines are expected at this time, but some moderate swimming risk days are possible this weekend into early next week.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.