textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes as the forecast remains on track.

KEY MESSAGES

1)Above average temperatures return this week.

2) A dry week is expected through Thursday before chances of showers and storms returns on Friday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A dominant ridging pattern has developed across much of the contiguous US which will allow for above average temperatures to return this week. Highs today will climb into the low to mid 80s before gradually rising into the low to mid 90s by Wednesday. Through midweek, dew point temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s, resulting in heat index values gradually in the mid to upper 90s by Wednesday. These temperatures will result in moderate heat risk with some areas of high risk through Wednesday. Overnight lows through that period will also linger in the upper 60s to low 70s, minimizing the overnight relief.

On Thursday, a weak boundary is forecast to push south across the area and allow winds to gain a more northerly component. When this occurs, overall temperatures will begin to cool into the weekend with decreasing dewpoints due to overall flow. On Thursday, the heat risk returns to moderate before falling to minor for this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Showers and storms are looking to return by Friday into the weekend as the aforementioned ridge looks to retrograde a bit and allow for an upper level trough to push south across New England to the Mid- Atlantic and portions of the eastern Great Lakes regions. This positioning may allow for enough moisture flow into the area for some diurnally driven convection to occur on Friday with more widespread precipitation possible on Saturday. There is very little agreement amongst models regarding this pattern shift, but it is worth noting that SPC has issued a Day 6 15% that extends from the Washington DC area west to the CWA border. Will have to continue to monitor the forecast trend throughout the week to fully get an idea of what the trough may do.

AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/

VFR conditions are prevalent across the region as only high level clouds move through. Probability is low, but a few pop up showers are possible this afternoon at KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG. If over station, this could bring visibility down to IFR. Lower cloud deck down to 030-040 is likely as well in that area, though should stay scattered. Otherwise, expected VFR conditions throughout the TAF period.

Winds will be light and variable across much of the region to start the TAF period, then shift to be predominantly out of the north to northeast by mid-morning at 5-10 knots. After 00Z, winds will shift around to be out of the south and light at less than 5 knots.

Outlook...VFR favored through Thursday. Non-VFR chances increase starting late Friday with showers and thunderstorms possible.

MARINE

Quiet marine conditions are expected over the next several days as high pressure builds into the region. Winds will be light at around 5 knots out of the north this morning before shifting to south- southwest by at 5-10 knots this afternoon. Throughout the day Tuesday, winds will increase to around 10-15 knots out of the southwest and persist through Wednesday morning. Waves will build to 1-3 feet, primarily in the central and eastern open waters during that time. A cold front will sweep across the lake on Wednesday and winds will shift to be out of the north and though should remain less than 10 knots. With the northerly winds, waves could build to around 2 feet in the near shore zones behind the cold front to end the week.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.