textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Weakening showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will exit the area to the east this morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and embedded thunderstorms will exit the area this morning, with isolated showers

2) Above average temperatures return next week with highs once again expected to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Shower activity, mainly across far northeast Ohio and northwest PA early this morning, with embedded thunderstorms will move east of the area during the early morning hours, with primarily dry conditions expected across the forecast area through the remainder of the morning. Additional showers and a few storms may develop ahead of a slow moving cold front this afternoon, primarily across the far southern and eastern portions of the forecast area, but this activity would be fairly isolated if it manifests. Severe risk is low given lack of deep layer flow, but sufficient destabilization may result in a non-zero chance of stronger brief updrafts that could result in a few strong wind gusts.

KEY MESSAGE 2... As ridging builds across the region this weekend into next week, temperatures will be on the rise with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s by Monday and Tuesday. Heat indices in the mid 90s will be possible during this time before the ridge flattens a bit over the Great Lakes by mid/late week.

AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/

A cold front will move across the area from northwest to southeast through this afternoon, shifting winds to a more west-northwest direction at 5-10kt. Out of the gate, there is some patchy fog/mist across Northwest OH that will mix out by 14z. A few clouds between 1500-2500 feet are evident farther east, though outside of ERI are unlikely to become a ceiling. SCT-BKN cumulus around 4000-5000 feet is expected to develop from near CLE-MFD points east-southeast this afternoon, with a low risk for a few showers or storms to develop across southeastern portions of our area as the cold front moves through this afternoon. Maintained a PROB30 group for YNG for this potential, with lower confidence precluding a TAF mention elsewhere. Winds will be light tonight, but will shift to a more east-northeast direction overnight at CLE, ERI, and possibly TOL as a trough axis moves south off of Lake Erie. This trough may bring a few sprinkles/showers and MVFR ceilings as it pushes off the lake, and do bring an MVFR ceiling into ERI/CLE early Friday morning. Otherwise, some fog may try developing late tonight/early Friday farther inland. Confidence in that is overall low, though do have a period of MVFR BR at YNG. Outlook...Mainly VFR, but with patchy non-VFR possible in fog/mist early in the mornings on Saturday and Sunday.

MARINE

A cold front is crossing the lake this morning, shifting winds to a more northwest direction. Winds of 10-15kt, briefly a bit higher, will continue through early this afternoon before briefly subsiding late this afternoon. Waves of 1 to 3 feet in the open waters in southwest wind will be pushed towards the lakeshore from Cleveland points northeast as winds shift with the front. Winds shift more north-northeast at 10-15kt tonight as a surface trough crosses the lake, building more 1 to 3 foot waves, especially over the western and central basins. Winds and waves are expected to remain a bit shy of advisory criteria, but will be large enough to make conditions unpleasant for small craft and to perhaps bring a moderate risk of rip currents to the shoreline from Cleveland points west. Northeast winds will remain brisk through a good portion of Friday before generally favorable marine conditions arrive for the weekend.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.