textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Our weather pattern will eventually become more unsettled with increasingly better chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms through the end of this week and into the weekend.

2) Temperatures will generally be near or just slightly above average through the weekend and into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... The high pressure system which brought nice, fair weather to the area over the past couple of days is slowly losing influence over us as it drift eastward today. A weak and broad low pressure system has moved up from the southeastern U.S. into the Mid- Appalachian and Mid-Atlantic region today. We are on the northwest fringes of this weather system. It has brought back some moisture into our atmosphere, especially over eastern Ohio and northwester Pennsylvania. We currently have scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over portions of east central and northeast Ohio as well as NWPA this afternoon, generally along and east of the I-77 corridor. The rest of the area will remain rainfree and partly cloudy for the remainder of this afternoon and evening. The scattered convection over NEOH and NWPA this afternoon will gradually decrease in coverage and move eastward out of the area this evening.

The next weather system to impact the area will be a weak and slow moving cold front that is currently located from the central Great Lakes region down into the Cornbelt Belt of Iowa. There will also be a change in our weather pattern with a broad upper level trough slowly shifting from the north central U.S eastward into the Great Lakes region later this week into the weekend. We will be near the base of this broad upper level trough for several days starting Thursday through the weekend. We will be watching for little mid-level disturbances or weak short-wave troughs to round the base of the broader upper level trough to bring us multiple rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. This weather pattern setup looks increasingly likely it will continue to be somewhat unsettled going into early next week as well.

The weak cold front will move closer to our area from the west tomorrow and eventually stall out over the area or just northwest of us. This frontal boundary will help in pooling of moisture along and ahead of it over the next several days with PWAT values up to 1.8 inch at times. We will have scattered POPs across much of the area Thursday, especially during the afternoon and evening. Most of the convection will be diurnally driven with the daytime heating. There will be a slightly better mid-level disturbance to interact with the frontal boundary on Friday which will bring higher rain chances. Some of that convection on Friday may linger into Friday night with likely POPs. Given the higher moisture content that is expected to be around, localized heavy rainfall may be possible with any slow moving and training of storms. We will keep the higher POPs in the forecast through the weekend. Saturday afternoon/evening and Sunday evening/overnight will be the two time frames that we will have the highest rain chances for showers and storms. It appears that the stalled frontal boundary will stick around and bring unsettled weather Monday and perhaps into Tuesday with higher POPs in the forecast. We may finally see a drier forecast return by the middle of next week as the front gets a push to move out of our area. It is very possible that we have several inches of rainfall across the area this weekend into early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Temperatures are expected to be near or at just slightly above average for early August standards through the weekend into early next week. High temperatures will generally be in the lower to middle 80s Thursday through Monday with overnight low temps in the 60s. We may see temperatures drop a few degrees by the middle of next week when a cold front pushes through the area.

AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/

Showers exiting the area and should be out of ERI/YNG shortly. VFR. Mid level clouds holding on overnight for the eastern terminals, then cumulus field FL050 again Thursday. SHRA/TSRA too low for mention Wednesday for this issuance, but isolated convection possible. Winds remain under 10kts.

Outlook...Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected through Monday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours for each day.

MARINE

Light winds expected to continue on Lake Erie with a light lake breeze Thursday afternoon. Southwest winds on Friday and increase to 10-15 knots Friday night ahead of a cold front. Occasional veering southwesterly to westerly is possible as the front lingers in the vicinity of the lake over the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will return to the region Thursday evening and continue into early next week, producing localized erratic wind and wave conditions.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.