textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes from previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above average temperatures expected through Friday resulting in melting the remaining snow pack and potential localized ice jams on area rivers.

2) Periodic precipitation expected this week, with the greatest chance on Wednesday and possible rain/snow mix to snow towards the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Behind a departing surface low pressure system, high pressure and upper level ridging will build into the eastern CONUS through early next week. This will allow for persistent westerly to southwesterly flow across the region and surface temperatures will gradually increase to be above average through that time frame. Highs today will reach into the low to mid 40s, with Monday and Tuesday seeing highs in the mid to upper 40s and the central Ohio counties seeing the mid 50s. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week as a warm front will lift south to north across the region early in the day and increase southwesterly flow. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 50s, with the western portion of the CWA up into the low 60s. Overnight lows will follow a similar trend, generally staying in the upper 30s to low 40s most nights.

The increasing temperatures do bring some potential impacts to the region in the form of snow melt and ice jams. The remaining snow pack will melt with temperatures finally above freezing, and will create minor run-off into local streams and rivers. This could potential cause rivers to rise and with the ice deteriorating and breaking apart, could lead to localized ice jams. Will need to monitor this for the next several days.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Periodic showers are expected starting today through the forecast period. Low pressure will be moving to the south of the region today that will bring a low chance for precipitation across the southern tier of counties in the CWA. Any precipitation should end by the afternoon and move off to the east. Rain chances will return in far northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania Monday night into Tuesday morning as a shortwave system and surface troughing move across eastern Lake Erie. Currently, rain chances are fairly low during this time frame.

Another round of rain showers are expected on Wednesday with a more potent system moving through the Great Lakes region. With temperatures warming due to the warm front moving through early that morning, all of the precipitation will fall as rain. There is some instability with this system, so a rumble of thunder or two is possible during the day. Thursday is expected to be dry for the most part, with some lingering showers possible in the morning. Friday picks right back up with precipitation as a low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes. Precipitation will start off as rain and transition over to a mix then a wet snow by Friday night/Saturday morning with CAA behind the departing cold front.

AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/

A cirrus deck has overtaken the area ahead of a low pressure system and rain shield moving over the Ohio Valley. Some MVFR visibility continues to plague KERI despite the cloud cover over the region. The main batch of rain will struggle to advance north tonight into Sunday and suspect only KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG have a real shot at seeing any precipitation. Despite no precipitation, low ceilings will enter on Sunday with trends to MVFR expected for most with IFR closer to where the rain will enter in the southern terminals. Conditions will largely remain non-VFR into Sunday night. Winds will be light and southerly tonight, shifting to the southwest during the day on Sunday. Outlook...Non-VFR continuing through Monday morning. Non-VFR possible in rain Wednesday.

MARINE

Winds on Lake Erie are expected to be 15 knots or less through Monday night. Winds develop out of the southeast Tuesday night ahead of the next system and veer to south/southwest on Wednesday at 15 to 25 knots. Lake Erie remains mostly ice covered with a large crack located east of Kelly's Island. Above normal temperatures are expected for the first half of the week, peaking in the upper 50s on Wednesday. This will start to rot the ice and could see more movement of the ice with the stronger winds on Wednesday. Persons should stay off Lake Erie ice given the forecast for above normal temperatures and increasing winds this week.

Another system moves into the Central Great Lakes Thursday night through Friday night with a prolonged period of winds of 20-30 knots.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.