textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this update when compared to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1.) Above-normal temperatures are expected to persist through Friday, February 20th. The snowpack across the region will melt during this time period. Rises on area rivers may increase the potential for localized ice jams to develop.

2.) Periods of rain are expected, especially this Wednesday through Friday.

3.) Colder weather with rain mixing with or changing to wet snow expected this Friday night into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Aloft, primarily zonal (i.e. W'erly) flow should persist over the eastern two-thirds of the northern tier of the United States, including northern OH and NW PA, through Friday, February 20th. This should allow unusually-warm air temperatures to impact our region. At the surface, our region should primarily reside in the warm sector based on the latest projected mid-latitude cyclone track across the CONUS and vicinity. Afternoon highs should reach the 40's on Sunday, the lower 40's to lower 50's on Monday, mid 40's to mid 50's Tuesday, and mainly the lower 50's to lower 60's Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. On Friday, daytime highs should reach the lower 40's to lower 50's, before a cold front sweeps E'ward through our region. Overnight low temperatures should be about 10F to 15F cooler than daytime highs Sunday morning through Thursday morning.

Remaining snow cover across the region is expected to melt as temperatures soar to well above normal values. Dew points in the 30's this weekend should be followed by dew points reaching or surpassing 40F at times this Monday through Friday. The melting snow will contribute to some run-off and generally minor rises on area streams, creeks, and rivers. Ice jams may develop. We will continue to monitor this hydrological situation closely.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Primarily dry weather is expected through this Tuesday as high pressure ridging and associated stabilizing subsidence impact our region. However, after midnight tonight through about late afternoon on Sunday, periods of light rain, associated with moist isentropic ascent preceding a shortwave trough axis aloft, should move generally E'ward across our CWA. Greater potential for rain exists roughly along and especially south of U.S. Route 30. Additional periods of rain are forecast overnight Tuesday night through Friday due, in part to the following reasons: moist isentropic ascent preceding shortwave trough axes aloft; low-level convergence and moist ascent along the aforementioned cold front.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Cyclonic W'erly to NW'erly flow aloft should impact our region Friday night through Saturday as a longwave trough axis moves from near the western Great Lakes to near the Gulf of Maine. At the surface, associated troughing should linger over the eastern Great Lakes, Upper OH Valley, and vicinity, including our CWA. Moist isentropic ascent preceding shortwave trough axes embedded in the cyclonic flow aloft should allow periods of precip to impact our region. Rain should mix with or change to wet snow Friday night into Saturday via CAA at the surface and aloft, and the wet-bulb effect. Lows should be near 25F to 30F around daybreak Saturday and be followed by afternoon highs in the 30's.

AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/

VFR through most of tonight. Clouds overspread and lower from the south as a low pressure system moves across the southeastern US. Precipitation shield could get into the southern terminals, and will carry some restrictions from lowering ceilings and visibility issues in -RA and light winds. The most likely candidate for this is MFD. Other terminals FDY/CAK/YNG may lose these MVFR/IFR conditions if the precipitation shield forecast sinks a bit further south. Winds light and variable to southwesterly less than 10kts. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain Wednesday.

MARINE

Lake Erie remains mostly ice covered. Light and variable winds through Monday night as high pressure moves through the region. Southwesterly winds Tuesday morning 10-15kts become southeasterly Tuesday night 15-25kts, then back southwesterly 15-25kts Wednesday into Wednesday night with the passage of a frontal system. Mild pattern ahead will translate to some thawing of the ice covered lake this week.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.