textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Extended rain chances across NE OH through tonight/very early Monday morning, but otherwise no major changes needed with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lake effect snow showers are expected to continue through today before tapering off tonight.

2) High pressure will build in for much of next week with drier, seasonable weather expected. Temperatures will likely rise above normal by late next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... An upper trough will linger over the eastern Great Lakes today before pushing east tonight into early Monday. This will result in continued lake effect showers in NE OH/NW PA with periods of wet snow mixing in with the rain early this morning. Surface temperatures will remain just above freezing so snow accumulations are not expected. Generally expect a downward trend in shower coverage as the trough shifts east during the today with only a slight chance (around 20%) of showers across portions of NE OH into tonight. Any lingering showers will taper off by early Monday morning as 850mb temperatures increase and moisture decreases.

KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will build east across the region Monday and maintain influence over the local area as it slowly shifts east throughout the workweek. This will result in dry weather through at least Friday. Temperatures will be just a couple of degrees below normal Monday with highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s expected, however temperatures will gradually improve throughout the week as warm air advection develops on the back side of the high. By Thursday and Friday, highs will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s, which is several degrees above normal for this time of year. Showers may return to the area as early as late Saturday as the next cold front approaches from the west.

AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/

MVFR conditions across the TAF sites this evening with mainly MVFR to persist through the TAF period, associated with low ceilings. Radar reveals some light returns across the snowbelt this evening associated with mainly rain, though some snow is mixing in at times. This activity should not result in any non- VFR vsbys. Conditions may gradually improve to low- end VFR towards the end of the TAF period from west to east.

Winds are generally out of the west to northwest this evening, 7 to 12 knots. Winds will remain out of the west to northwest through the TAF period, 7 to 10 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR will linger across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through Monday in low ceilings.

MARINE

North/northwest winds around 20 knots will continue in the central basin of Lake Erie through early this morning before flow over the lake diminishes to roughly 10 to 15 knots after sunrise. Small Craft Advisories will remain for the nearshore waters of the central basin through late morning. From there, much calmer marine conditions are anticipated as high pressure builds over the lake. By Monday morning, northwest winds will be 10 knots or less with surface winds becoming more southwesterly by Monday evening. Winds in the open waters will likely increase to 10 to 15 knots for a period on Tuesday and Tuesday night. South/southwest winds will develop as the high drifts east on Thursday and the lake with deepening warm air advection causing winds to increase to 10 to 20 knots. The highest winds/waves will likely remain in the open waters during this time.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ144>148. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for LEZ149.