textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes made to the previous forecast. The weather pattern continues to look more active with multiple opportunities for light rain from Wednesday through Friday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures are expected across the local area today and will persist through the week. The snowpack across the region will melt during this time.

2) The weather pattern becomes more active during the second half of the week with multiple rounds of light rain possible between Wednesday and Friday. Rises on area rivers could increase the potential for localized ice jams to develop.

KEY MESSAGE 2

An upper level trough lifts out of the Plains from Tuesday into Wednesday as a 150 knot upper level jet approaches from the Four Corners Region. Surface low pressure fills while lifting out of the Plains towards the Upper Midwest. Showers associated with overrunning along a warm front will extend east from the low towards northern Ohio, lifting northeast through the day. A gradient is expected in the coverage of precipitation across the area with better coverage near Lake Erie and even more so across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Precipitation totals are generally forecast to be a third of an inch or less with locally up to a half inch possible in Pennsylvania.

Another system looks to follow on the heels of this one, with low pressure tracking out of the Plains towards the Central Great Lakes Thursday night and Friday. The exact track of the system will influence the amount of precipitation to expect and this will be something to watch for the end of the week. The combination of thermal break up from the warm conditions and run-off from snowmelt and rain could combine to break up ice on area rivers. This could result in the development of localized ice jams and conditions will be monitored closely this week.

AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/

Mid-level clouds continue across the region with a weak surface trough moving east. These clouds will give way to clear conditions by daybreak for much of the area. The exception still seems to be KERI where some MVFR clouds will persist off Lake Erie. A low pressure system will enter tonight into Sunday and bring mid-level clouds into the region late in the TAF period. Winds through the period will be light, starting southwest before shifting more southerly. Outlook...Non-VFR possible with rain on Wednesday.

MARINE

Lake Erie is still mostly ice covered. There's a break in the ice just east of the Islands to about Vermilion, OH that extends north through the open water zones. More degradation in the ice coverage is expected over the next several days with a light southwesterly wind and temperatures staying near and above freezing. Currently the winds are sitting around 10 to 15 knots across the lake and will diminish into the early morning hours becoming less than 5 knots and variable through Monday morning. Stronger winds of around 15 to 25 knots are possible Wednesday into Thursday next week with a passing low pressure system.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.