textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast remains on track.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated showers this afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon. Widespread rainfall expected Sunday night through Monday which may result in rises on area rivers.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Lingering upper level troughing will continue to influence the region despite surface high pressure slowly building overhead from the west. Some isolated showers this afternoon across portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania will diminish later this evening. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the day on Saturday as a shortwave aloft moves overhead. Coverage will remain scattered with the highest PoPs confined to southeastern zones.

The majority of Saturday night into the daytime hours on Sunday will be dry as the shortwave exits the region. By Sunday night surface low pressure is forecast to approach from the west before tracking across the Ohio Valley during the day on Monday. Area PWATs averaging ~1.75 inches are forecast which is well above the 90th percentile for mid/late June. Current rainfall amounts Sunday night through Monday range between 1-1.5 inches with slightly higher amounts of 1.5-1.75 inches across the western third of the forecast area. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible in any strong thunderstorm and/or storms that train over the same area. Rises on area rivers are expected with the possibility of a few rivers rising into minor flood stage. Will continue to monitor the track of the surface low and rainfall amounts as we near closer to Monday. WPC expanded the Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall to include the majority of the forecast area during this timeframe.

AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Diurnal cumulus is waning this evening and west to northwest winds are starting to diminish with the stabilizing nighttime atmosphere. Some mid-level clouds over and west of Lake Michigan will push east tonight and spread across the terminals overnight into Saturday. For Saturday, ceilings across the area will lower to between 4 and 8 kft during the morning and early afternoon hours with a shortwave moving through the region. Some iso/sct showers and some very iso TS may develop on Saturday early afternoon with the best chances at KCAK and KYNG - have just PROB30 for rain right now for a brief window. A surface trough will move through the area, pushing rain east and trends will be for scattering cloud decks wind west winds with gusts to 20-25 kts on Saturday afternoon and early evening.

Outlook...Showers and storms are possible Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning with the potential for non-VFR coverage.

MARINE

High pressure south of Lake Erie will keep the weather fairly quiet for the next couple of days. Westerly winds of 10 to 18 knots and waves of 2 to 3 feet are expected today through Saturday. Winds will start out variable on Sunday but a low pressure system will track eastward into the Upper Ohio Valley late Sunday. East to northeasterly wind 15 to 25 knots will develop Sunday afternoon through Monday and waves of 3 to 6 feet. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed late Sunday through Monday for higher winds and waves. High pressure builds back in over the lake by Tuesday with a light northerly wind around 10 knots.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.