textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered Showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of a cold front Wednesday night through Thursday.

2) Warm and mostly quite weather expected for the end of the week and weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure is over the Ohio Valley this morning and will continue to build into our area today through early Wednesday. There are still some lake effect clouds and a couple isolated lake effect showers this morning lingering over far northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. The flow aloft will shift from northerly to more westerly today and a weak upper level ridge will move over the region today into tonight. The lake effect clouds will eventually clear out later today. The rest of the area will see a very nice, sunny day with high temperatures in the middle 70s to around 80 degrees. Quiet and fair weather is expected tonight into most of Wednesday with high temperatures a couple degrees warmer. A weak cold front will approach the area Wednesday night with scattered showers and storms moving into NWOH by late evening. There is a severe weather risk west of our local area but that threat quickly diminishes Wednesday night as those storms will weaken by the time they move into NWOH. The cold front will slowly move across the area on Thursday. There will be a redevelopment of showers and storms along and ahead of the front. The severe weather threat will very low due weak thermodynamics Thursday. Drier weather will move in behind the Thursday evening, but there could be a few isolated lake enhanced showers near the lakeshore Thursday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2.. Warmer temperatures and more nice weather will return Friday through the weekend. High pressure will build back into the region Friday and weekend. High temperatures on Friday will range from the middle 70s to lower 80s. Mostly sunny and late Summer very weather will be around this weekend with temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s. That very weather may continue into early next week. The next chance for showers and possible storms will be early next week with another cold front dropping through the Great Lakes region.

AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/

Still some clouds and a few showers coming off the lake into the ERI vicinity, though this should finally end for good through the rest of the morning. Some MVFR cigs and perhaps vsby are possible within any showers across Northwest PA. There is a bit of patchy fog early this morning, though it's not impacting any TAF sites and should quickly improve by 13-14z. Otherwise, VFR is ongoing and will continue, with a scattered cumulus deck around 4000-5000 feet likely filling back in for a few hours this afternoon across Northeast OH and Northwest PA. Light and variable winds early this morning will shift north-northwest and increase to 4-8kt this afternoon, then light out of a more southerly direction at <7kt tonight. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday.

MARINE

Winds and waves are on the decrease early this morning across the lake. Northwest winds are in the 8 to 15kt range early this morning, and will continue to gradually come down from west to east through the morning hours. Waves of 1 to 3 feet early will continue to subside to under 2 feet by midday. Winds shift southerly tonight through Wednesday night ahead of an approaching cold front, increasing to 10-15 knots at times. Winds shift more west-southwest at 10-15 knots on Thursday as the front passes. Winds will subside behind the front Thursday afternoon. Waves will build to 1 to 3 feet at times late tonight through Thursday afternoon, though winds and waves are currently favored to remain below small craft advisory criteria. Confidence in thunderstorms with the frontal passage is low to medium, with any thunderstorms capable of producing briefly higher winds/waves. Winds shift more north-northeast Thursday night into the start of the weekend as high pressure tracks across the central Great Lakes. Speeds should remain under 20 knots but may increase to 10-15 knots at times, enough to perhaps build 1 to 3 foot waves towards the southern shore.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.