textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for portions of Northeast Ohio through 8 PM.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and storms will continue through the area through this evening. The main threats will be damaging wind gusts and heavy rain that could produce localized flooding. A severe thunderstorm watch is out for portions of Northeast Ohio until 8 PM.

2) Showers and storms will return on Wednesday with a strong cold front.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A line of thunderstorms is along the Interstate 77 corridor in Northeast Ohio and will continue east over the next couple of hours. These storms are being generated thanks to an MCV moving over Lake Erie and taking advantage of an air mass with some decent instability with 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and some modest shear with 20-30 kts of 0-3km shear. Several counties of interior Northeast Ohio are in a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 8 PM with this line moving through and warnings will be issued as needed. The other threat with this line will be heavy rainfall. Areas along US 30 are receiving 1 to 1.5 inches of rain in just 30-45 minutes, which may cause some localized flooding issues. Luckily, the line of showers and storms are progressive enough to limit the overall threat of flash flooding.

For tonight, some residual showers are possible here and there as the backside of the MCV exits the region, there is some slight recovery after these afternoon storms, the cold front crosses the forecast area, and the mid-level shortwave moves through the region. Any additional thunderstorm development is low and would remain sub- severe. The front will slow over the southern portion of the area tonight into Monday and some isolated to scattered activity will be possible in the south before fully exiting the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold front is expected to move through the forecast area on Wednesday, bringing showers and storms to the area. There will be less moisture and instability across the region compared to recent days and largely expect activity to remain generic and sub-severe. Behind the cold front, there will be a firm pattern change to more of a late summer/early fall air mass with high temperatures in the 70s, lows in the 50s, and low humidity.

AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/

A line of showers and storms are moving through the eastern portion of the airspace this afternoon. Impacts will be mainly to KCAK and KYNG with wind gusts to 40kts and heavy rain dropping visibility into the IFR/LIFR range. Elsewhere, rain will impact KCLE and KERI with some non-VFR impacts over the next couple of hours. Otherwise, the main trend will be ceilings down into MVFR and possibly IFR overnight. Some iso/sct showers and storms are possible with the cold front moving through the region this evening but coverage is too low to include in a TAF. The front will slow over the southern portion of the area tonight and may allow for MVFR/IFR ceilings to remain through the morning hours for much of the area. Winds will start south to southwest and shift to the west behind the line of storms and then northwest behind the cold front.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible on Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE

Winds ahead of a cold front are starting southwest to west around 10 knots. Winds will shift to the northwest behind a cold front overnight with 10 to 15 kts of onshore flow expected. Waves may bump up a bit, but incoming high pressure will quickly taper off the northwest flow to 10 kts or less on Monday and allow for any waves to diminish. High pressure will move south of the lake for Tuesday and light southerly flow will return to the lake. A cold front will approach and cross the lake for Wednesday, bringing a chance for showers and storms and winds shifting from southerly to northwesterly. Cool high pressure will be in place for Thursday and Friday and maintain light north to northeast flow across the basin through the end of the week.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.