textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast with the thunderstorm threat late Thursday into Thursday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure settles into the region, then shifts east ward mid week in dry weather through early Thursday.

2) The next round of showers and storms will be associated with a cold front that will track through late Thursday/Thursday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry weather is the main theme today through early Thursday as high pressure dominates the region. Clouds on the increase later today and tonight with an upper level jet entrance region and 500mb PVA, but nothing more than mid/high level clouds expected out of this. Will get into the beginnings of slow airmass modification as the airmass continues a southeastward push, and should see some improvement in the temperatures for today compared to yesterday. Still likely to be a bit below normal however in mid to upper 40s. As the high shifts eastward for Wednesday, flow turns southerly and see significant recovery to the 850mb temperatures. Will need to watch weak 500mb PVA again early Thursday, but for now, keeping the bulk of any shower activity with that feature mainly south of the CWA. By Wednesday, temperatures will be back into the mid 50s to lower 60s, and near 70F for many areas Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Lower level winds on the increase ahead of the late Thursday/Thursday night cold front, and expecting lines of showers and storms to develop in the next round of convective elements to watch for our area. Going to be a high shear environment with modest CAPE over the western half of the CWA while dewpoints rise into the 50s. Outlooked for a Day 3 Slight Risk from SPC at this time for the western half of the CWA. Then the second half of the forecast period turns into a similar situation with chilly weather for Friday and Saturday, warming Sunday through Tuesday as high pressure moves eastward and southerly flow returns.

AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/

A high pressure ridge continues to impact northern OH and NW PA through 06Z/Wed as the ridge at the surface and aloft exits slowly E'ward. Our regional surface winds trend light and variable through the TAF period. However, a W'erly to NW'erly Lake Erie lake breeze around 5 to 10 knots should occur this afternoon through early evening and penetrate up to several miles inland in north-central OH to NW PA. This lake breeze is expected to impact KCLE and KERI. Dry weather and primarily VFR are expected. However, lake-effect stratocumuli should linger over and generally south of eastern Lake Erie through ~13Z/Tues. These clouds should yield periodic MVFR ceilings over NW PA, including KERI.

Outlook...Non-VFR are possible with periodic rain and/or snow this Thursday through early Friday afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon through evening.

MARINE

Winds trend light and variable as a high pressure ridge axis moves E'ward across Lake Erie early this morning. Winds then become S'erly to SW'erly around 5 to 10 knots late this morning through midday as a warm front sweeps N'ward across the lake. Primarily S'erly to SW'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots are expected this afternoon through Thursday afternoon as the aforementioned ridge exits slowly E'ward. Waves remain 3 feet or less.

A strong cold front should sweep SE'ward across Lake Erie Thursday evening and cause SW'erly winds around 10 to 20 knots to veer to NW'erly to N'erly and freshen to around 15 to 25 knots. Waves should build to as large as 3 to 5 feet and a Small Craft Advisory should be needed. Behind the front, a strong high pressure ridge should build from the northern Great Plains and vicinity through Friday. Winds should be primarily NW'erly to N'erly and ease gradually to around 5 to 15 knots by Friday evening. Waves initially as large as 3 to 6 feet should subside to 3 feet or less by sunset Friday evening.

On Saturday, the ridge should exit SE'ward from Lake Erie and allow another warm front to sweep generally N'ward across the lake. Then, a subtle trough should move generally E'ward across Lake Erie. This weather pattern evolution should allow winds around 5 to 15 knots to back from N'erly to SW'erly and then veer to W'erly. Waves should remain 3 feet or less.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.