textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Near term severe threat has significantly diminished due to convection over the area this morning and early afternoon. Best window for impactful convection over the area is later this evening if the atmosphere destabilizes upstream.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Severe and heavy rainfall threat has continued to shift south and west of the area this afternoon, with a more uncertain severe weather threat later this evening.

2) Aside from some possible showers and storms Saturday, dry conditions will persist through early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... The severe weather threat this afternoon has quickly diminished across most of the forecast area, as convective overturning has stabilized the airmass over northern Ohio. Instability gradient has shifted south of the forecast area this afternoon, and weakening convection across northeast Indiana into northwest Ohio may further reinforce the outflow boundary southward.

CAMs have struggled to assimilate ongoing convection/precip over the past 12 hours, but the focus for potential severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall is with any development upstream/over the area in the 00Z-03Z time frame. However, confidence is decreasing on the magnitude of severe weather with instability shunted south and west of the area and limited time for recovery/advection into the local area. Storms will be mostly elevated during this timeframe, with some hail and heavy rainfall possible. If storms develop rooted in the boundary layer, there could be a damaging wind risk and a brief window for a tornado, although confidence is low and decreasing at the moment. Heavy rainfall would also be a threat with additional development, with isolated flash flooding possible in areas with training storms and/or areas with saturated soils due to recent heavy rainfall.

KEY MESSAGE 2... The pesky frontal boundary that has been focused over the area most of this week will finally push south of the area late Saturday as high pressure builds into the region from the north behind a southeast moving shortwave from the lower Great Lakes to the mid Atlantic. As the front departs, a few isolated/scattered showers and storms may impact the area through midday Saturday before dry conditions persist under the high through at least Tuesday. Seasonable temperatures expected through Monday before a brief warmup into midweek. A weak cold front should move southeast through the area sometime mid to late week before additional high pressure returns to the area by the end of the week.

AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/

Showers may move southeast across the western half of the area later tonight with the highest confidence at KFDY and areas to the southwest. Confidence in the probability of showers is much lower to the northeast so amendments may be needed if guidance/radar trends more east/northeast over the next several hours. Otherwise, most TAF sites will experience VFR conditions through this evening with ceilings lowering and areas of fog developing late tonight and especially early Saturday morning. IFR conditions in lower ceilings and fog are expected at most terminals with LIFR conditions possible across interior NE OH/NW PA. KERI will likely experience slightly better conditions (but still MVFR). Fog will lift by mid-morning Saturday with stratus clearing and VFR conditions developing during the afternoon.

Winds will be light and variable tonight before becoming north/northeast and increasing to 6 to 12 knots Saturday afternoon.

Outlook...Non- VFR possible with isolated showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday.

MARINE

Waves around a foot or less through today, followed by a cold front coming through tonight. Winds then come around to the northeast 10-15 knots and wave heights increasing to 2-3 ft Saturday afternoon through Sunday night. There is a chance for locally stronger winds in the central basin Sunday afternoon, especially east of the Islands towards the vicinity of Cleveland. Northeast winds continue into Monday before gradually veering to south and southwest Tuesday into Tuesday night. Southwest winds may strengthen to around 20 knots, becoming west and northwest as a cold front crosses the lake on Thursday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.