textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated the forecast to bring showers in across the south faster this morning. Moisture advection is focused across the east today and raised pops and qpf in this area. Also lowered temperatures along the northeast lakeshore as the flow shifts off the lake this afternoon and in the east where coverage of showers and clouds will be higher. Locally heavy rain is possible this afternoon with deep moisture through the column.

KEY MESSAGES

1.) Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rain is possible.

2) Warmer and drier weather will return Memorial Day through the middle of this week with above normal temperatures in the lower to middle 80s.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Weather conditions are starting out mostly rain free with mostly cloudy skies. There are some patchy areas of fog across northwest Ohio this morning. A surface trough west of the area will move across later this afternoon and evening. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will move west to east across the area. Rainfall amounts will be light averaging around a quarter of an inch. High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 70s this afternoon. Rain chances will gradually end from west to west late this evening. Some patchy fog may be possible again late tonight through sunrise Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A change in the weather pattern will bring a return of warmer and drier conditions starting tomorrow on Memorial Day. A weak area of high pressure will build in across the eastern Great Lakes on Monday. Skies will start off mostly cloudy Monday morning with clearing skies by the afternoon. High temperatures for Memorial Day will climb into the middle 70s to near 80 degrees. An upper level ridge will develop over the north central U.S. and western Great Lakes region through the middle of this week. Overall the rain chances will be minimum through the middle of this week with chance POPs possible by Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will warm into the lower and middle 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. Drier weather is expected for the end of the week into the weekend as high pressure builds southward from Ontario and across the Great Lakes. Temperatures will be near seasonable average in the lower and middle 70s for the end of this week.

AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/

Fairly widespread MVFR ceilings are observed across the region with pockets of IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibility across the region. The patchy fog that impacted terminals to the west has begun to dissipate and visibility has increased to at least IFR and will continue to improve to MVFR over the next couple of hours. Rain showers will move into the region this afternoon, though still anticipate MVFR ceilings with isolated reduced visibilities. Behind the cold front tomorrow morning, there is potential for lowered visibility and ceilings within fog as high pressure builds in.

Winds across the region are generally light and variable with any sustained winds coming out of the south-southeast. Gusts at KERI will continue to dissipate through the morning. Winds will shift around from the south to the southeast with the rain showers, then become westerly behind, still light at less than 10 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with lingering rain showers and lower ceilings Sunday night into Monday morning. Non-VFR possible with rain showers on Wednesday.

MARINE

Winds have subsided across the eastern basin of Lake Erie down to 5- 10 knots out of the south to southeast. Today, a cold front will pass across Lake Erie and winds will shift to be out of the north at 5-10 knots. Light winds, at less than 10 knots, with waves 1 foot or less are expected across the lake through Wednesday evening as high pressure builds into the region.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.