textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The axis of heaviest rainfall through tonight has shifted slightly southeast and confidence is increasing for some nuisance and/or minor river flooding.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will arrive across the region today and tonight. Confidence is increasing for some nuisance and/or minor river flooding.

2) A chilly air mass will return across the region mid to late week with another round of Frost conditions possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

An area of weak low pressure will develop along a slow- moving cold front which is currently located in the vicinity of southern Lake Michigan early this morning. Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front this afternoon into tonight. Thunderstorm chances and the heavy rain threat will be highest ahead of the front, generally east of the I-71 corridor. The latest guidance indicates this area could receive up to 1.5 inches of rain into early Wednesday morning, with some isolated amounts up to 2 inches possible. Area soundings support a modest heavy rain potential with saturated and skinny-CAPE profiles, in addition to southwest cloud layer flow paralleling the front. Given the already saturated ground, characterized by 3-hour FFGs just under 2 inches across much of the area, confidence is increasing for at least some instances of nuisance flooding and/or minor river rises. More significant water issues cannot be ruled out if rainfall totals trend any higher and will be something to monitor.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Behind the cold front on Wednesday, temperatures will mainly trend below normal through the end of the week and into the weekend with 850 mb temperatures falling between 0 and -2C Wednesday into Friday morning. This will bring some Frost potential across the region both Wednesday and Thursday nights as low temperatures drop into the 30s. Rain chances will return Friday night into Saturday, and again on Sunday as a pair of low pressure systems move through the region. Another round of chilly temperatures appear likely by early next week behind these systems.

AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/

Widespread rain is still on track to develop late this morning through this afternoon from west to east, with a few thunderstorms possible on the front edge at north central and NE terminals. The timing of the steadiest rain has trended a couple of hours slower, so pushed back the prevailing rain showers and TEMPO groups for thunder. This is especially the case at KCAK, KYNG, and KERI where it probably will not rain much until this afternoon. Once rain arrives, a slow drop in cigs and vis to MVFR and eventually IFR will occur. Slow improvement is expected from west to east tonight, but rain and IFR is likely to hang on in north central and NE Ohio through NW PA until the end of the TAF period.

S to SW winds will gust to 20-25 knots at times this morning before gradually turning NW late this morning through the afternoon as a cold front moves through the region. Wind speeds will decrease through the afternoon, becoming NE around 3 to 5 knots by early tonight then back to N to NW late tonight.

Outlook...Periodic rain showers with non-VFR are expected through Saturday. Occasional thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening.

MARINE

Relatively quiet conditions are expected on Lake Erie the rest of the week, with no marine headlines expected. SW winds of 10-15 knots this morning will veer to NW behind a cold front this afternoon and decrease to 5-10 knots. NE winds of 5-10 knots are then expected tonight, becoming light and variable Wednesday and Wednesday night. W winds will increase to 10-15 knots by late Thursday before turning SW at 10-15 knots by Friday. The strongest winds of the entire period will likely occur Friday night into Saturday, when SW winds of 15-20 knots are expected.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.