textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Trended the snow forecast down slightly for today as high pressure continues to build into Ohio. Flurries remain likely but coverage of accumulating snow is lower. Temperatures have continued to trend a little cooler tonight where skies clear out with high pressure.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A mix of light snow and flurries will persist across far Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania today with minimal impacts.

2) Most of the area will experience above normal temperatures beginning this weekend and continuing through the middle of next week, melting the snowpack across the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Following a brief cool down today, the upper level trough axis shifts off the East Coast of the United States on Friday. Ridging aloft expands east through the Ohio Valley with 500mb heights of 555 dm on Saturday. While an upper level trough closes off over the lower Ohio Valley Saturday into Sunday, this system quickly moves off to the east with ridging aloft returning Monday through Wednesday. Normal high temperatures are in the mid to upper 30s for mid February and we should surpass that across most of the area on Saturday. Look for temperatures through Monday to favor the 40s before surpassing 50 degrees for Tuesday and Wednesday. The snowpack should melt rapidly during this stretch as dewpoints climb well above freezing from Tuesday and beyond. Drains should be cleared of snow and debris to allow water to drain through early next week. Most of the snowpack has an inch or less of liquid to release with a few pockets close to two inches. Runoff is likely to lead to some gradual increase in rivers which have thick ice coverage. The concern remains for ice jams but the warm temperatures of the next week may help to gradually melt some of the river ice. Prefer the ice to start melting but some jams could develop due to thermal break up. We are fortunate that precipitation is limited over the next 7 days. There is a chance of light rain on Sunday as an upper level low closes off over the Lower Mississippi Valley and directs moisture northward. The next chance of rain is next Wednesday with overrunning along a warm front.

AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/

Some very minor lake-enhanced snow will continue across parts of Northeast OH and Northwest PA into today, with limited and transient vsby restrictions. Activity will generally decrease through the day, though a few flurries may linger around ERI and YNG through this evening. Otherwise, ceilings will bounce between MVFR and VFR across the area through the day, with more VFR pushing in from the west-southwest through the day and into tonight as high pressure and drier air build in. Clouds/ceilings will likely be somewhat in and out at TOL, FDY, and perhaps MFD today before clearing more definitively by this evening. It is more uncertain how quickly CLE, CAK, YNG and ERI will clear tonight, as flow will persist off the lake longer there. Ultimately, have CLE and CAK going SCT this evening with YNG and ERI hanging on to an MVFR ceiling through the TAF period, though some refinement is likely in future forecasts.

Northwest winds in the 5-12kt range today become light and variable tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR is possible with rain on Sunday.

MARINE

Lake Erie remains mostly ice-covered. West-northwest winds persist at 10-20 knots through this afternoon, subsiding to under 10 knots this evening. Winds then remain light through most of Friday while gradually backing to a more southwesterly direction. Southwest winds increase to 10-20kt (perhaps briefly 20-25kt in the open waters of the central and eastern basins) Friday night before decreasing into Saturday. Mainly light winds are expected Sunday into early next week. Any mobile ice will be pushed towards the east-southeast through this evening. Some ice movement to the northeast is possible Friday night, though it is not as confident if the brief period of elevated southwest winds will be enough to push ice fastened to the shoreline out into the lake (i.e. ice floes). Still, something to keep in mind. Some slow deterioration of the ice is likely Sunday through at least the first half of next week due to a period of milder temperatures, though with generally light winds and limited precipitation through at least Tuesday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.