textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aside from a few sprinkles, precipitation has ended for the evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Canadian high pressure brings an early-fall like airmass briefly, but shifts east quickly with a return to the warm sector midweek.

2) Oscillating stationary front Tuesday night through Thursday brings a return of POPs to the area.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure will build in behind the cold front this evening and tonight with strong pressure rises and northerly winds gusting 15- 25mph. Canadian airmass settles in for Monday with dewpoints down into the lower 50s and daytime high temperatures that will struggle to reach 70F. Monday night lows could drop into the upper 40s form the higher elevations in the south-central portion of the CWA northeastward into northwest PA. This cool spell for the southern Great Lakes will be brief, however, as the high pressure system will be transient and will shift eastward fairly quickly with return flow coming into play Tuesday. Dewpoints and temperatures again on the increase and could see highs 10-15 degrees warmer than Monday. Meanwhile, a warm front will be stretching eastward into the vicinity of the lengthwise fetch of Lake Erie, introducing POPs into our zones for Tuesday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2... The warm front will become quasi-stationary over the CWA from Tuesday night through Thursday night with dewpoints back in the upper 60s to lower 70s and air temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Will need to examine some of the convective indices as we get closer to mid week for thunderstorm and any possible severe potential, but expecting an extended period of on/off convection in more summer- like weather as we approach the solstice. Frontal system should clear the area after Thursday as a cold front with modest temperatures falls for Friday.

AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/

Precipitation has ended aside from a few sprinkles in the vicinity of TOL or CLE through 04Z. A cold front is pushing south of the evening with northwest winds shifting to north and becoming gusty near the lakeshore at CLE/ERI through 09Z. Broken high cloud cross the area area with scattered clouds near 3K feet late tonight through midday on Monday. Winds will tend to be 10 knots or less out of the north/northeast on Monday before going variable towards evening as surface high pressure shifts to the eastern Great Lakes.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers/storms Tuesday through Thursday.

MARINE

Lake Erie conditions to deteriorate with a cold frontal passage expected and winds picking up behind the front out of the north around 20-25kts this evening and early tonight. Wave heights build to 3-6ft as a result, but winds will begin easing by morning back to 10-20kts with a gradual decrease in wave heights through the day Monday. By Monday evening, winds light and variable before becoming offshore Tuesday 10-20kts. Wave heights nearshore less than 2ft Tuesday, but 2-3ft in the open waters. Will mention waterspout potential Monday morning here.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM EDT Monday for OHZ003-007. Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for OHZ009>012- 089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for LEZ142-143. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for LEZ144>149.