textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes as the forecast remains on track.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Extended period of dry weather and above average temperatures expected through Thursday.

2) Precipitation chances increase Friday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... The stationary boundary over the Ohio Valley will slowly exit to the east throughout the day on Sunday as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes region. There may be an isolated shower or two, primarily across Eastern Ohio as a surface trough lingers across the region, but the majority of the area will remain dry. A strong upper level ridge will build across the Central Plains that will support the aforementioned high pressure. This high will settle across the western portion of the Great Lakes early in the week and slowly build east throughout the week. Temperatures will increase as a result, with highs reaching into the low to mid 90s by the middle of the week. Though, given the west to northwesterly flow over the region, temperatures may stay a few degrees cooler with greater confidence in this across the eastern portion of the CWA. Dew points will be in the mid to upper 60s with heat indices rising into the mid to upper 90s with some elevated heat risk across the region from Tuesday through Thursday. Friday has lower confidence in heat risk as the upper level trough across Eastern Canada pushes further south into Eastern CONUS. Will continue to monitor trends and impacts to any heat related risks.

KEY MESSAGE 2... An upper level trough across Eastern Canada will begin to move south into Eastern CONUS on Friday bringing possible unsettled weather back to the region. There's still quite a bit of spread on the global models with timing and amplitude of this trough, so confidence is fairly low in any details currently. Though, the overall pattern suggests precipitation chances increasing into the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Afternoon cumulus clouds are expected today with isolated rain showers 18-23Z near KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG.

Winds around 5 knots early this morning increase to 8 to 12 knots this afternoon with a few gusts to 20 knots. Light and variable winds expected tonight.

Outlook...VFR expected.

MARINE

A Beach Hazard Statement has been issued for the Erie, Lorain, and Cuyahoga counties from 2 PM to 9 PM today. A Small Craft Advisory has also been issued for the associated Lake Erie Waters. Northeast winds around 15 to 20 knots will produce waves of 3 to 5 ft, producing hazardous conditions for small craft, and dangerous conditions for swimmers. Swimmers should remain out of the water.

High pressure over the Great Lakes region today will gradually drift southward to the Ohio Valley by Tuesday, where it will remain as it slowly dissipates through Wednesday. Quiet weather conditions are expected on Lake Erie as southwest winds persist through at least Tuesday before turning westerly Tuesday night into Wednesday. Waves will be 1 foot or less, with 2 ft waves possible Tuesday night into Wednesday when winds turn westerly.

A cold front crosses the Lake Wednesday evening, followed by northerly flow developing behind the front Wednesday night. Right now, waves are forecast to be less than 2 ft, but this period is worth monitoring due to the onshore flow.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Beach Hazards Statement from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening for OHZ009>011. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT this evening for LEZ144>146.