textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were needed with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The cold has arrived and will stick around through Saturday night. Multiple periods of frost/freeze are likely.

2) Light showers will push east across the area today, bringing another day of dreary conditions. A few wet flakes are possible, but not expected to stick.

3) Near normal temperatures return next week with an active pattern bringing the chance of multiple rounds of showers and storms to the area.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Temperatures this morning have dropping into the mid to upper 30s across far NEOH and NWPA with low to mid 40s being observed elsewhere. Unfortunately, overnight lows tonight and Saturday night are expected to be even colder with lows dropping into the low to mid 30s areawide. Some areas, especially in valleys, may even fall into the upper 20s. These temperatures will likely pose a risk of frost/freeze areawide both nights. There is a bit of uncertainty is how cold temperatures get given the expected cloud cover and possible impacts to radiational cooling, especially tonight. Expected temperatures to be the coldest in areas where there are observed breaks in the clouds. Saturday night is forecast to be less cloudy as high pressure become dominant across the area, so expect the coldest temperatures that night. Additional frost/freeze headlines will be issued in the coming shifts given the fact that there is currently a Frost Advisory for NWPA this morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A very weak low pressure system has begun to traverse the area this morning, allowing for light rain showers to begin across far NWOH. These showers are expected to continue to push east through the afternoon, resulting in another dreary day. Overall rainfall totals should remain less than 0.25" keeping any impacts to a minimum. Given the well below normal temperatures this morning, would not be shocked to see a few wet flakes mix in with the rain showers, but these are not expected to be widespread or accumulate at all. Given the weak support and little to no instability today, have opted to remove the mention of thunder from the forecast. As the low departs east this evening, showers should taper west to east.

KEY MESSAGE 3... On Sunday, temperatures will slowly begin to rebound with highs climbing into the upper 50s to low 60s. Late Sunday, a warm front is expected to push north across the area as a surface low deepens over southern Ontario. Behind this boundary, a transition back towards spring-like weather will occur with mild overnight temperatures Sunday night and near normal highs expected Monday through midweek. Late Monday into Tuesday, an amplified ridge to the south will merge with a trough to the north, amplifying synoptic features including a vort max and upper level jet across the Ohio River Valley. This robust system will aid in supporting multiple rounds of showers and storms through mid-week. The initial round expected will be Monday into Tuesday as a cold front pushes east in conjunction with a shortwave. Another shortwave traverses the area late Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing another cold front east. Both rounds of weather have the potential to have thunder associated with them, however will have to keep an eye on any severe potential as the current timing seems to occur during a diurnally unfavorable time. The aforementioned upper level trough may have additional embedded shortwaves move along it and impact the area later in the week, however divergence in timing and location amongst models this far out leaves little to no confidence in those additional chances.

AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/

Mixed-bag of VFR, MVFR, and pockets of IFR across the TAF sites this morning, associated with approaching rain and lower ceilings. Further deterioration to widespread MVFR and IFR conditions is expected through this morning and into the afternoon from west to east across the area. Brief LIFR conditions cannot be ruled out at MFD/CLE/ERI following the rain this afternoon with pockets of mist/fog possible. Conditions should improve to low- end VFR by late afternoon and evening. Another area of low ceilings and vsbys with rain showers is possible overnight, mainly impacting CLE/MFD/CAK.

Winds are generally light with varying directions this morning, 5 knots or less. Winds will gradually favor a north to northwest direction by late morning and afternoon, increasing to 8 to 10 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms late Monday through Tuesday.

MARINE

Generally quiet marine conditions are favored through the weekend with no headlines expected. Slightly stronger offshore, southwest flow of 15 to 20 knots will arrive on Monday into Tuesday ahead of a cold front. A Small Craft Advisory could be possible if winds trend stronger. Otherwise, generally light onshore flow of 10 knots or less is favored through Saturday, increasing slightly in the 10 to 15 knot range and becoming southwest by late Sunday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ002-003. MARINE...None.