textproduct: Cleveland

SYNOPSIS

High pressure builds off the east coast through Monday morning. A low pressure system will track to the north late Monday dragging a weak cold front through the region early on Tuesday. High pressure will build in on Tuesday with a weak low pressure system moving through on Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Quiet weather will continue through the near term as surface high pressure builds eastward off the east coast. A weak, upper level trough will push southward from the Ohio Valley this evening into early Monday. Only impacts with this feature will be some mid to upper level cloud cover over most of the region through this evening. An additionally upper level trough will be moving north of the region early Monday and will bring a fairly weak cold front through. There will be limited precipitation with this system as it traverses through as there will be weak moisture advection prior to its arrival. Currently, only PoPs in the forecast are for far northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania. As the system moves through, winds will increase as well across the region. Winds will begin to shift to be more westerly throughout the day Monday and increase to 15-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph. The strongest winds will be during midday into the evening on Monday and will begin to subside behind the cold front and as the low pressure system moves off to the northeast. Surface high pressure will build in south of the region late Monday into the overnight hours and dry weather will be expected through the remainder of the period.

Temperatures overnight tonight will be in the mid to upper 30s for most and in the low 40s for those near the lakeshore. For Monday, highs will be in the 50s with overnight lows dropping down into the mid to low 30s away from the lakeshore due to high pressure building in and clear skies.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

The short term will start off fairly quiet as surface high pressure continues to build off to the southeast of the area. There will be plenty of dry air across the region as well, so dry weather is expected through Wednesday afternoon. At 300mb, there will be a strong jet moving west to east across the upper great lakes, though will be mostly zonal through midday Wednesday. An upper level trough will start to develop northwest of the region and move into eastern Canada by Wednesday night. At the surface, a low pressure system will develop in the western Great Lakes and move eastward Wednesday evening. A weak surface cold front will likely move through the region during that timeframe with increased PoPs starting midday Wednesday and mainly across eastern portion of the area. Surface high pressure will build in behind late Wednesday night and the rain chances will decrease from west to east.

Temperatures on Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 50s with overnight lows down into the upper 30s and low 40s. On Wednesday ahead of the front, temperatures in the western counties will climb into the upper 50s and low 60s and further east will be in the upper 50s. Overnight lows on Wednesday will be down in the mid to upper 30s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Upper level ridging will move into the region on Thursday with surface high pressure building in. The surface high will build eastward quickly and be off the east coast by early Friday. There's some agreement in the upper level features by the end of the week as an upper level trough starts to develop over the northern plains. By the end of the weekend a strong upper level trough should develop across the region with a cold front, or series of cold fronts, expected to move through the region from Friday onward. At this time, widespread rain chances are likely Friday into Saturday. Model guidance at the end of the week becomes more uncertain regarding the timing and the strength of the upper level features as it moves through the region. Temperatures in the long term are dependent on how theses systems develop, though Friday is trending towards being slightly above average with the weekend cooler and below average behind the surface low.

AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/

VFR will prevail through the TAF cycle, but a strong low pressure system passing north of the Great Lakes Monday will drag a cold front eastward through the region Monday afternoon. The southern Great Lakes region will be on the tail end of this front, so the bulk of the rain showers will be north of the area, but expect showers to affect KERI from midday through mid afternoon. The rest of the terminals should stay dry, with the main impact being a BKN to OVC cloud deck at 5000 to 6000 feet at KCLE and KERI and mostly 10000 to 15000 feet at the rest of the terminals.

WSW winds will become very gusty ahead of the cold front by late Monday morning through the afternoon, when WSW winds of 10-20 knots will gust to 20-30 knots. The strongest winds will be in NW Ohio and near the lakeshore. Winds will turn W to WNW Monday evening and gradually decrease.

Outlook...Non-VFR and gusty winds are possible Wednesday or Wednesday night and again on Friday.

MARINE

Unsettled marine conditions are expected over the next several days as several systems cross the local area.

West/southwest winds will increase ahead of a cold front overnight tonight into Monday morning with sustained winds to 20 to 30 knots expected across the entire lake. The strongest winds closer to 30 knots will be in the open waters east of the Islands late Monday morning into the afternoon before stronger winds develop closer to the lakeshore as northwest winds develop behind the front Monday evening. There may be a brief period Monday afternoon into Monday evening where winds in the eastern basin reach gale force so have issued a Gale Watch for far eastern open waters. Otherwise, Small Craft Advisories begin at 08Z/3 AM Monday morning and continue through Monday night with advisories gradually ending from west to east Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening as winds gradually diminish and waves slowly subside.

The strong offshore winds in the western basin will likely cause water levels to decrease Monday and guidance suggests that water levels at Toledo will drop below the critical mark for safe navigation, which is currently 2 inches below low water datum. A Low Water Advisory has been issued for the western basin from 12Z/7 AM Monday to 03Z/10 PM Monday night.

There may be a brief lull in headlines before southwest winds once again increase ahead of an approaching system Wednesday and shift to the northwest behind a cold front Wednesday evening. Winds become light and variable as high pressure builds over the region Thursday, but headlines will likely be needed as yet another system approaches the region late week into the weekend.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Monday to 3 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ142>144. Low Water Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Monday for LEZ142>144-162>164. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ145-146. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday for LEZ147>149. Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for LEZ169.