textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased the coverage of patchy drizzle and light showers for today. Raised chances of precipitation for Central and Northwest Ohio on Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Occasional showers will continue at times through Wednesday with below normal temperatures.

2) Dry conditions will return to end the week with cool overnight low temperatures in the 40s.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A surface analysis shows a broad area of high pressure north of the Great Lakes this morning while an inverted surface trough extends from the Ohio Valley to Northeast Ohio. Only a few light showers are coming off the western basin of Lake Erie in a region of favorable low level convergence that are shallow and mainly visible on the DTW terminal radar. Otherwise, there is a lack of deep moisture overhead this morning but veering flow in the moist low levels may support patchy drizzle, especially for areas from Akron to Youngstown. Later this afternoon the surface trough retrogrades westward and moisture increases at 700mb across NE Ohio. Several models suggest scattered light showers will return across Northeast Ohio where lift continues along the 850mb front. High temperatures will be similar to Monday in the low to mid 60s. In addition northeast winds will be breezy downwind of Lake Erie along the lakeshore and in Northwest Ohio with gusts to around 30 mph.

Tonight will start off relatively quiet before the upper level trough seen over Iowa this morning deepens across the Ohio Valley. Scattered showers will expand after midnight as the trough closes off across southern Indiana. Good coverage of showers are expected initially along the I-77 corridor then drifting westward through the day. There will also be a slight chance of thunderstorms with elevated instability as the cold pool aloft moves overhead. Showers are expected to diminish quickly through the evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure over Canada will expand south of the Great Lakes on Thursday as the upper level trough deepens along the East Coast. Clouds will scatter out Thursday with lots of sun over the weekend. The forecast is dry through next Monday with temperatures gradually warming back towards normal. Overnight lows will be cool, generally in the low to mid 40s on Thursday night and Friday night, then upper 40s(inland) to near 50(lakeshore) for the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/

Predominately non-VFR conditions are expected to persist for much of the area today as low ceilings mixed with rain showers result in diminished visibilities and cloud decks below 3kft. The exception to this could be the northern most terminals nearest the lake where some breaks in cloud coverage could result in periodic VFR conditions. Timing of precipitation remains difficult to pin point still given the stratiform and scattered nature of the precipitation so continue to handle most potential with TEMPO/PROB30.

Northeast winds of 10-15 knots this morning will become gusty in the 20-25 knot range by this afternoon. The strongest gusts will occur nearest the lakeshore and along the I75 corridor.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and occasional thunderstorms through Thursday.

MARINE

Northeast winds of 20-30 knots continue on Lake Erie today and Small Craft Advisories and a Beach Hazard Statement for a high swim risk remain in effect. Waves of 5 to 9 feet are forecast with peak waves across the central basin. Given the strong convergence over the western basin, there is also a low end threat of waterspouts. Winds become more easterly tonight and gradually start to decrease on the east end of the lake. The Small Craft Advisory will end for the Pennsylvania waters at 11 PM while remaining in effect through 10 PM Wednesday for the Ohio waters. We will need to monitor wave heights on Wednesday and may be able to cancel the Small Craft Advisory a little early for areas east of Cleveland.

Northeast winds of 10-20 knots expected on Thursday ahead of high pressure building south across the Great Lakes. Conditions will be choppy and may approach Small Craft and Beach Hazards criteria for a brief window on Thursday evening. The high will be more directly overhead as the weekend progresses with improving marine conditions.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for OHZ003- 007-009>012-089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ142>148. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ149.