textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Accumulating snowfall in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania is likely late tonight into Tuesday morning, with a few inches possible across higher elevations of Erie County in Pennsylvania.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Below normal temperatures through Tuesday, with periodic precipitation chances today through Tuesday morning. Transition to snow expected tonight, with potential for accumulating snow in the higher elevations of the primary snow belt.

2) Dry conditions and warming temperatures midweek, with precipitation chances returning late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Main weather feature of concern early in the forecast period is embedded shortwaves/attendant surface low rotating east southeast through the Great Lakes in broad mid/upper troughing over the region. First shortwave will cross the lower Great Lakes this morning, ushering in shower activity from west to east across the area, as currently noted upstream on radar near southern Lake Michigan. These showers could contain some frozen hydrometeors (graupel, etc.) as freezing levels remain near 2.5kft.

A stronger wave and surface reflection will move southeast through the Great Lakes this afternoon and evening, which will shunt a majority of the shower activity and synoptic moisture off to the east this evening into tonight, as a cold front pushes south across the area. Thermal profiles will support a transition to snow this evening and tonight, with some lake enhancement/effect and upslope across the higher terrain of the snow belt possible, especially late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Most areas will see under an inch if any accumulation, but some of the higher terrain, especially in far eastern Erie County, could see a couple of inches of accumulation, mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces. Snow will quickly end Tuesday morning as ridging builds east across the lake.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A quieter pattern influenced by strong high pressure building across the region Tuesday night through Thursday will help usher in a quick moderation of temperatures back to above normal Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front will sink south towards the region late Thursday and Friday which brings our next chance for showers and some storms across the area.

AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/

Showers have been moving through early this morning bringing isolated MVFR, though the majority of terminals have been staying VFR. For KYNG and KERI, there will likely be a rain/snow mix with the showers this morning and could bring down ceilings/visibilities into MVFR. There will be a break in the precipitation for a few hours, but non-VFR ceilings are expected to continue across most of the eastern terminals. Precipitation will return for sites east of KTOL and KFDY between 15-18Z, though will be scattered. Opted to continue the VCSH wording for the remaining terminals. KERI will see more consistent snow showers this evening dropping down conditions to MVFR. Outside of KERI, VCSH should begin to taper off by 01-03Z and dry weather is expected through the end of the TAF period.

Winds across the region currently are out of the west to southwest around 5-10 knots. By mid day, winds will all be out of the west and increase to 10-15 knots with gusts around 20-25 knots. They will continue to stay elevated and shift out of the north-northwest after 04-06Z. Wind gusts will begin to subside near the end of the TAF period from west to east.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely Monday night into Tuesday morning in rain and/or snow showers, particularly across the snowbelt. Non-VFR may return in scattered rain showers Thursday night into Friday.

MARINE

There will be brief, quiet conditions across Lake Erie today with winds out of the west at 5-15 knots and waves less than 3 feet. Rough conditions return this evening as low pressure moves off to the east of the region and winds shift to be out of the north and increase to 15-25 knots. Waves will build as a response to 3-6 feet across the central and eastern basins. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued from 10PM tonight through 10AM Tuesday for those areas. Quieter conditions return on Tuesday afternoon with winds less than 10 knots out of the north then shifting to the southeast. By Thursday, winds will increase out of the south to 15-25 knots, though with the offshore flow, the open waters will see the roughest conditions and a Small Craft Advisory for the near shore remains a low probability.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ144>149.