textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Still tracking the evolution of the convection across the CWA this early pre-dawn morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Post MCS environment with cold front coming through today and lake enhanced showers tonight.

2) High pressure for the end of the week, but becoming unsettled again over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Will be focusing this part of the forecast in the wake of the ongoing convective activity in the Great Lakes. Low pressure to shift to the east of the CWA today with a cold front coming through across Lake Erie by 18Z today. Expect some additional convective activity along the cold front but the possibility for severe at this point should be greatly diminished. Storms that form will be fighting dry air aloft and limited instability, but thunder should still be expected in a scattered nature as the cold front tracks through. From there, the whole stacked low pressure system to the east will strengthen, and create a brief period where weak trough axes rotating through in the cyclonic flow and cool air over the warm lake will produce lake enhanced showers late this evening into tonight. Expecting a small amount of near surface based CAPE capped at around 800mb with an inversion at that level. High pressure building from the west will shut this potential for showers down fairly quickly. KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure and dry weather with a cooler airmass settles into place for the end of the week. Conditions will begin to become unsettled over the weekend with a 500mb trough moving into the Great Lakes via the upper Mississippi Valley accompanied with an inverted surface trough from surface low pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley. Will expect convective chances to increase with gradually rising dewpoints once again and temperatures back into the low to mid 80s.

AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/

An area of strong to severe convection is currently pushing southeast across Lower Michigan into Northern Indiana and Northwest Ohio. Expect reduced ceilings and visibilities as this area of convection moves over terminals over the next few hours. Have timed out TEMPO groups at all terminals in the timeframe where there remains highest confidence in TSRA impacts to TAF sites (roughly between ~06Z/Tue and ~10Z/Tue). Behind this area of convection expect widespread ceiling reductions to low-end MVFR with periods of IFR through late morning. Conditions will gradually improve this afternoon with western terminals improving to VFR by 18z/Tue. Expect lingering MVFR ceilings across Northeast Ohio and Northwest PA terminals as a trough lingers across Lake Erie and will give way to lake-induced cloud cover/rain showers.

Southwest winds 5-10 knots continue overnight tonight. Behind the convection and a surface cold front winds will turn northwesterly and increase to 10-13 knots with widespread gusts 20-25 knots through this evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR ceilings and scattered showers through Wednesday across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.

MARINE

Scattered thunderstorms will push southeast across Lake Erie through early this morning with locally higher winds and waves possible. Otherwise, elevated southwesterly to westerly winds 15-20 knots will become northerly at 15-25 knots by daybreak as a cold front sinks south across the lake. Onshore flow will allow for wave heights in the central and eastern basins to build to 4-7 feet. Highest winds and waves will be in the central basin. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements remain in effect to highlight the timeframe of highest risk to small craft and beach goers through Wednesday evening.

Northwest winds decrease to 10-15 knots Thursday as high pressure approaches from the west. Light and variable flow returns Friday with largely offshore light winds anticipated into the weekend.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through late Wednesday night for OHZ009>012-089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Wednesday afternoon for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ144>148. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ149.