textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes made with this forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered showers across the eastern part of the area will become more widespread Thursday into the weekend as a slow moving system pushes east into the early part of the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... As high pressure drifts off the East Coast today, a weak disturbance is expected to move north into the Ohio Valley, bringing the potential for showers across the far eastern CWA. These showers should remain isolated to scattered given the overall weak forcing with the best timing being this afternoon into the evening hours. At the same time, a cold front will very slowly be approaching the area from the west. This cold front, associated with a broad upper level trough and surface low over northern Canada, is expected to become nearly stationary just west of the CWA which will keep the entire area within the warm sector of the low for Thursday and much of Friday. This will allow for a consistent southwest flow and increased moisture advection into the Ohio Valley which will allow for dew point temperatures to increase into the upper 60s to low 70s. Initially on Thursday, the area may be split between widespread showers and thunderstorms going on to the east and to the west of the CWA with the greatest chance of showers across the far western and eastern fringes of the CWA. In any areas that receive showers, heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be possible given the PWAT values over 1.5 inches. In addition, the severe weather potential looks to be minimal on Thursday given the weak environment.

The aforementioned cold front will begin to move across the area on Friday, increasing the likelihood for widespread showers and thunderstorms across the area. With dewpoints still lingering in the upper 60s to low 70s and high PWAT values, heavy rainfall will be the primary concern. In addition, very slow storm motion and general flow parallel to the boundary may result in training showers and increased flooding concerns in any areas impacted. Overall organized convection seems unlikely given the overall weak mesoscale environment, but cannot rule out a few more developed storms given a bit more shear present. WPC has highlighted the area in an ERO due to the heavy rain potential on Friday.

This cold front will gradually shift east of the area Saturday which should allow for a break in precipitation at some point this weekend. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty about when that break will occur, but with this update the best chance is early Sunday before another system impacts the area late Sunday. This active pattern is expected to continue into next week. Temperatures throughout the entire period will be near average with highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s.

AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/

Scattered thunderstorms will develop near CAK, YNG, and ERI this afternoon. A few storms may produce IFR visibility and gusty winds. Confidence is high in thunderstorms producing at least scattered gusts to 25 knots but can't rule out a stronger storm or two producing gusts exceeding 40 knots. Most storms are likely to dissipate by 00Z but a few showers and storms could potentially linger through at late as 03Z.

VFR conditions will return areawide tonight, and continue through at least Thursday morning. Some patchy fog or low ceilings is possible wherever rain is most persistent this evening (so most likely at CAK and YNG) but confidence was too low to add to TAFs at this time. Scattered showers with an isolated embedded thunderstorms is possible Thursday afternoon, and is mostly likely in Northwest Ohio after 18Z.

Outlook...Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected through Monday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours for each day.

MARINE

Light winds expected to continue on Lake Erie with a light lake breeze Thursday afternoon. Southwest winds on Friday and increase to 10-15 knots Friday night ahead of a cold front. Occasional veering southwesterly to westerly is possible as the front lingers in the vicinity of the lake over the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will return to the region Thursday evening and continue into early next week, producing localized erratic wind and wave conditions.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.