textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Snow has trended up a bit for Saturday night but still expecting generally an inch or less. The QPF/snow axis for Sunday night into Monday has shifted a bit farther south away from our forecast area, so the probability of impactful snow has decreased.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warmer temperatures are expected on Friday and Saturday.

2) A brief period of snow will bring an inch or less of accumulations to the area Saturday night.

3) Snow is possible Sunday night into Monday with a chance for minor impacts, especially towards central Ohio. Confidence in the placement of snow is very low at this point.

DISCUSSION

1) High pressure over the area on Thursday departs to the east coast by Friday and Saturday. As low pressure moves eastward north of the Great Lakes, broad southwest flow will lead to some pleasant weather to end the month, as we expect above normal temperatures and some sunshine both days.

2) An upper-level trough and a deepening/occluding surface low make their way north of the Great Lakes, bringing a trailing cold front southeast across the region on Saturday. A weak and subtle shortwave trough move through behind the cold front Saturday evening, producing weak isentropic lift for a short period Saturday evening/night, and with cold air advection in place behind the departing cold front, any precipitation that is produced should confidently fall as snow. It's a pretty weak system though, and overall only an inch or less of snow is expected.

3) A cold airmass will accompany an expansive high pressure as it builds into the northern portion of the country Sunday into early next week. Broad isentropic lift overtop a baroclinic zone is expected along the southern periphery of this high somewhere across the mid-Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday, which may result in an area of winter weather. Locally, it has been becoming less likely for an impactful system as the latest model guidance projects the aforementioned high pressure is more likely to push the QPF axis further south, with indications of a lower QPF overall compared to the previous models. While the probability of impactful winter weather is decreasing, there is still a chance Sunday night into Monday, especially towards the southern portion of the forecast area in central Ohio.

AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/

High pressure will continue to build over the region during the TAF period, although stubborn lake effect clouds will likely continue to produce MVFR ceilings across portions of NW PA and far northeastern Ohio for the first couple of hours of the TAF period. Otherwise, VFR is expected through 12Z Friday.

Winds will largely be light and variable or out of the west/northwest during the day today before becoming more south/southwest overnight. Wind speeds will likely increase to 5 to 10 knots at most terminals by 12Z Friday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible as snow moves southeast across the area Saturday night. Additional non-VFR possible as snow moves east across the area Sunday night into early Monday.

MARINE

Expect relatively calm marine conditions and light and variable winds as high pressure maintains influence over the area today. Winds will shift to the southwest and increase to 10 to 15 knots as the high drifts east on Friday with winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots as the cold front approaches and moves across the lake late Friday into Saturday. Winds will become more northwesterly and diminish to about 10 knots behind the front on Saturday before shifting to the north as high pressure builds into the area Saturday night through Sunday. East/northeast winds will develop and sustained winds may increase a bit as a weak low moves east across the Ohio Valley on Monday.

Variable winds will allow ice on the lake to shift around over the next several days. Ice decay is likely as temperatures rise well above freezing Friday and Saturday and again from Tuesday onwards.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.