textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast. Precipitation chances for Thursday continue to trend later.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure will continue through Wednesday with dry, seasonable weather expected. Precipitation returns Thursday with low confidence in timing.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure will continue to build across the northern Great Lakes through Wednesday with pleasant, seasonable weather expected. Temperatures through then will be in the low to mid 70s with overnight lows down into the low to mid 50s. The low pressure off the east coast currently will start to drift westward this evening and there will be a low chance in precipitation across far NE OH and NW PA, but confidence is low since there will be plenty of dry air across the region to compete with. The next chance for precipitation will be with a low pressure system moving into the region from the west on Thursday. There's still low confidence on this system as model guidance has continued to vary with timing as it moves eastward.

AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/

VFR will persist through this evening before clouds move west over eastern terminals and patchy fog and areas of low stratus develop at inland terminals late tonight/early Monday morning. In locations that experience fog (best chance KMFD), IFR conditions are likely and LIFR conditions are possible. Eastern terminals will experience MVFR ceilings as clouds move in from the east, although there may be a brief period of IFR conditions at KYNG early Monday morning. Confidence in IFR conditions is highest at KERI. Some lower ceilings may attempt to move into the vicinity of KCAK early in Monday morning, but confidence in the westward extent of the cloud shield is too low at this point.

Winds will largely be out of the north at 10 knots or less through the TAF period, although KERI will likely experience a more northeasterly wind direction through Monday morning.

Outlook...Mainly VFR expected through Wednesday, though periods of early morning patchy fog and lower clouds are possible. Non- VFR possible in scattered showers on Thursday and Friday.

MARINE

There will be choppy conditions across Lake Erie beginning this evening with onshore winds increasing to 10-20 knots and waves building to 2-4 feet. This will continue through Monday afternoon when the winds and waves begin to subside to less than 10 knots and less than 2 feet across the lake. High pressure will build back overhead during the middle of the week and winds will then shift to be out of the south by Tuesday night at 5-10 knots. Low pressure begins to move into the region early Thursday and winds will increase out of the south-southwest to 10-15 knots through the late evening.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.