textproduct: Cleveland

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will persist through Friday. A low pressure system will move northeast into the Upper Midwest on Saturday, lifting a warm front north across the region. This low will then extend a cold front east through the area on Sunday. Another low pressure system and cold front will approach the region by Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

A generally quiet and mild near term period is in store as an upper-level ridge builds across the region today into Friday. Another low pressure system will begin to impact the area with scattered to widespread rain showers towards the end of the near term period Friday afternoon and evening.

For today, water vapor imagery reveals a weakening upper-level feature moving east into the Ohio Valley this morning. Radar returns are appearing ahead of this feature across portions of central and northern Ohio. Much of the rain continues to be light and non-measurable with the exception of a more established band entering central Ohio which is resulting in light rainfall totals of generally a tenth of an inch or less. Low-level dry air in place across northern Ohio in addition to a building upper-level ridge should preclude any heavier rain from entering the area today.

A stronger upper-level feature will develop across the central and southern Plains on Friday. A leading shortwave trough will move northeast into the Ohio Valley by Friday, resulting in a more steady and widespread rain arriving from the southwest by the afternoon.

Above-average temperatures are expected for the near term period with highs in the mid to upper 40s to perhaps lower 50s by Friday.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Upper-level trough lifts out of the Great Plains Friday night into Saturday and then another trough Sunday into Sunday night out of the Tennessee Valley and spreading to the northeast. This will result in generally a warm and wet pattern through the entire short term period. Rain is a little more light and scattered Friday night into Saturday, becoming more widespread and continuous Sunday into Sunday night. Temperatures will be at their warmest on Saturday when highs are expected to be in the mid to upper 50s, perhaps even touching 60.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

High pressure builds in on Monday with temperatures cooling down on Monday and Tuesday, though still remain above normal. Low pressure system moves across the Ohio Valley bringing precipitation chances Tuesday and Tuesday night with temperatures dropping down to near normal by Wednesday (with some snow chances).

AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/

Mixed-bag of MVFR and VFR, and IFR across the TAF sites this morning, associated with both lower ceilings and vsbys from mist/patchy fog. MVFR/IFR conditions will gradually lift to VFR from south to north through this morning and afternoon. Not anticipating any additional non-VFR conditions from approaching light rain across central Ohio.

Winds are generally favoring a light east to southeast wind this morning, around 5 knots. Winds will continue to be light and favor an east to southeast direction through the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in rain and/or lower ceilings Friday night through Sunday.

MARINE

High pressure remains over the eastern Great Lakes with light easterly flow continuing through Friday. A warm front lifts north across Lake Erie Friday night with southerly flow around 10 to 15 knots expected Friday night through Saturday night. A cold front crosses the lake Sunday into Sunday night with west to northwest flow developing thereafter. There's a low chance for small craft advisory conditions during this time frame, especially east of the islands.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.