textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes from the previous package. Winds will quickly diminish through this evening and overnight. Snow totals have been increased slightly (2 to 4 inches) across the snowbelt late Sunday afternoon and evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Gusty winds will quickly diminish this evening.

2) Widespread rain returns Saturday, followed by colder temperatures and snow showers on Sunday.

3) Additional rain and/or snow showers are expected Tuesday night into Wednesday, with precipitation transitioning to all snow by Wednesday night into Thursday. Some lake effect snow may follow on Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure will quickly build from the west this evening and overnight as low pressure exits northeast into Quebec. Wind gusts remain elevated this afternoon, with recent observations ranging anywhere from 45 to 55 mph, the highest of which are located closer to the lakeshore. Winds will quickly diminish from west to east through this evening, becoming light and variable overnight. Lows will remain relatively mild for this time of the year with temperatures in the 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Low pressure will move northeast into the Great Lakes region on Saturday and modestly deepen as flow becomes briefly cut-off in the upper-levels. A mix of light and steady rain is expected Saturday afternoon and evening, with the highest totals around a quarter of an inch located generally along and east of the I-71 corridor.

As the low exits northeast into Quebec on Sunday, a trough will swing south across the region, ushering in a colder air mass and a brief burst of snow, particularly across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania where some lake enhancement is possible in the afternoon and evening. Snow totals will generally range in the 2 to 4 inch range across the snowbelt. Areas outside of the snowbelt may receive anywhere from a dusting up to a quick inch. Snow is not expected to fully transition over to lake effect as flow quickly shifts to the southwest late Sunday night into Monday as a clipper slides just to the north of the area.

Gusty winds are expected on Sunday with the trough passage with gusts in the 35 to 40 mph range in the late morning and afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A large upper-level troughing regime appears favored to develop across the Eastern CONUS on Wednesday, ushering in a return to below average temperatures on Thursday and beyond. Initially, a clipper system will bring rain mixed with snow across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. This system will extend a cold front south through the region on Wednesday, with rain quickly transitioning to snow behind the front. Although some lake effect is possible behind the front on Thursday, the intensity remains uncertain given shallow moisture above 850 mb.

Below average temperatures are anticipated on Thursday and Friday with highs in the 20s and wind chills in the low teens to single digits.

AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/

Winds and gusts are quickly subsiding this evening as low pressure rapidly exits to the northeast and a ridge of high pressure quickly slides across the area. MVFR ceilings will persist area-wide overnight. Some guidance continues to suggest a brief period of IFR ceilings at sites such as MFD and CAK early Saturday morning, but am sticking with MVFR in the TAFs for now given an inconsistent signal and lack of IFR upstream. Winds will generally shift from northwest this evening to southeast overnight at <7 knots.

After a brief period where the MVFR ceilings may try scattering out Saturday morning, widespread rain and lower ceilings quickly spread northeast between 17-20z. Most sites will likely experience a period of IFR ceilings and/or visibility during the steadiest rain, with improvement towards and after 0z from west to east. Winds will be south-southeast at 5-10kt through most of Saturday afternoon, shifting more southwest late Saturday with gusts increasing Saturday night.

Outlook...Non-VFR continues at times Saturday evening in lingering rain showers and low ceilings. Non-VFR possible at times area-wide in snow showers late Saturday night and Sunday, persisting Sunday night across far NE OH and NW PA.

MARINE

Strong westerly winds are expected across Lake Erie through this evening before sharply decreasing to less than 10 knots after sunset. Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings remain in effect for this.

Quiet weather ensues on Saturday followed by another batch of strong westerly winds on Sunday. Small Craft Advisories are nearly a guarantee at this point, though a short Gale Warning may be possible in the eastern basin where winds may approach 35 knots at times late Saturday night into Sunday. Northwest winds on Sunday gradually dissipate to around 20 knots Sunday night, before becoming southwest and remaining 15 to 25 knots through at least Wednesday morning.

CLIMATE

Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected today with record high temperatures possible. Here are the record high temperatures for area climate sites for January 9:

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 01-09 59(1880) 61(1946) 66(1937) 63(1946) 66(1937) 64(1937)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for OHZ010>014-020- 089. PA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for PAZ001-002. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ145- 146. Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ147>149- 167>169.