textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

There is now a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday across Northwest Ohio.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and cooler today as Canadian high pressure quickly moves east across the Great Lakes region.

2) Chances for showers and return Tuesday and continue through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A taste of fall expected today as Canadian high pressure quickly pushes eastward across the region. Dry conditions persist through the day today. High temperatures will struggle to reach 70 degrees across much of the forecast area with low 70s most likely across the I-75 corridor. Chilly low temperatures tonight in the upper 40s to lower 50s. As the high exits to the east, southerly return flow will put the region back into the warm sector by Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Low pressure moving east across Ontario will lift a warm front across the forecast area on Tuesday. The bulk of the area should remain dry during the day on Tuesday with the exception of zones in Northwest Ohio. Scattered strong to severe storms will approach from the west Tuesday afternoon and evening bringing a localized risk of damaging wind gusts. Counties along the I-75 corridor are in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms on Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across Northwest Ohio given PWATs increasing to 1.75-2.00 inches Tuesday evening.

The system will then drag a cold front east across the region Tuesday night before the front stalls across the region Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected both days as the stationary front remains draped across the Northern Ohio Valley. Showers and storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall across the region as areawide PWATs range between 1.75-2.25 inches through mid/late week. The WPC has our entire forecast area under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall Wednesday and Thursday. The stationary front will dive south Thursday night into Friday allowing for any remaining precipitation chances to decrease by the end of the week.

Highs temperatures through this week will rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s with warm overnight lows in the mid 60s.

AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/

Cool high pressure entering the region will allow for dry conditions today with generally northerly winds. Some low VFR/MVFR level clouds will develop with the cold advective flow over the lake but any ceilings will be few and intermittent at best. High pressure will move over and then east of the area by tonight and low clouds will largely clear out and winds will shift to the south/southeast. High level clouds will enter from the west behind high pressure on Tuesday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers/storms Tuesday through Thursday.

MARINE

Conditions along and west of The Islands have improved as high pressure begins to take hold. Have expired the Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement for the western basin with the 4 AM forecast package. The SCY and BHS remains in effect for the central and eastern basins, and neighboring lakeshore zones, through 10 AM this morning as buoys continue to report winds 15-20 knots and waves 3-6 feet.

There remains the potential for waterspouts to develop across the central and eastern basins of Lake Erie early this morning into the late morning hours.

Conditions will improve through this morning as high pressure builds across the region leading to light and variable winds by this evening. Winds turn offshore at 10-18 knots Tuesday with wave heights in nearshore zones 2 feet or less. Winds turn northerly but decrease to 10-15 knots Tuesday night into Wednesday as a cold front moves across Lake Erie. No additional marine headlines are expected through the end of the week.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ010>012-089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 AM EDT this morning for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LEZ145>149.