textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Overall, the key messages remain unchanged. There's still potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms on Sunday, however confidence in the timing and location of convective initiation is still low.

KEY MESSAGES

1.) Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected through Sunday. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday, especially along and south of U.S. Route 30.

2.) Variable temperatures expected next week with rain chances increasing by late Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Warm air advection will result in increasing temperatures across the area through Sunday. Expect low temperatures in the 40s and 50s tonight with highs reaching the mid 60s and lower 70s Sunday afternoon. Depending on cloud cover and any showers during the day Sunday, a few spots in southern zones may climb into the mid to upper 70s.

There's still potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms along or behind a cold front on Sunday, although confidence in the placement and timing of convective initiation remains low at this time. There will certainly be sufficient shear/MUCAPE/lapse rates to allow for the development of stronger storms, however several forecast soundings from CAMs place a capping inversion across the majority of the area, which would significantly limit the severe weather potential. There's also the possibility of some showers and perhaps thunderstorms associated with the passage of the cold front earlier in the day Sunday, which could stabilize the atmosphere over the local area and further limit the severe weather threat.

If the cap manages to break, sufficient destabilization occurs, and/or convection develops earlier than anticipated, all severe weather hazards will be on the table, although damaging wind gusts and large hail will be the primary concerns. Based on the current forecast mesoscale environment, the best instability and potential for severe weather will likely be south of the U.S. Route 30 corridor, although isolated strong storms can't be ruled out to the north. It's possible that storms develop close to the southeastern CWA border and intensify as they move south/southeast later in the day Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Light cold air advection showers (possibly a mix of rain/snow) can't be ruled out across NW PA late Sunday into Monday. Otherwise, dry weather is expected through the middle of the week before precipitation chances increase as a system crosses the area late Wednesday through Thursday. Generally expect rain with this system, although a rain/snow mix can't be ruled out in cold air advection on Friday.

Temperatures will fluctuate quite a bit during the week. Monday and Friday will be the coldest days of the week with highs in the 40s expected and Thursday's current forecast highs are in the upper 50s and low to mid 60s. Temperatures will likely be below freezing Sunday night and Monday night with widespread 20s likely Monday night.

AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/

A mixed bag of conditions ranging from VFR to LIFR are currently impacting the area this afternoon. As high pressure continues to nudge over the area, conditions should steadily increase to VFR for all terminals by 00Z tonight. These conditions should persist for much of the period until a cold front approaches from the west Sunday morning. Highest confidence in diminished conditions are behind this cold front, however scattered prefrontal showers have the potential to lower conditions to MVFR. Given lower confidence in timing of PoPs, opted to handle the end of the TAF period with VCSH for western terminals and PROB30 for eastern.

Light and variable winds will persist into this evening before a warm front lifts north and winds become prevailing from the south-southwest at 5-12 knots. Isolated gusts up to 20 knots are possible tonight, but the bigger wind concern will be associated with the strong LLJ that pushes across the area. This will bring a period of LLWS from 03-12Z of 45 to 50 knots. The LLWS will diminish come Sunday morning.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain showers/thunderstorms and low ceilings on Sunday with another cold front.

MARINE

Calm marine conditions are expected to persist through late this afternoon as winds linger from the east at less than 10 knots. Tonight, a warm front will lift north across Lake Erie, shifting winds to become southerly and increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Late Sunday morning, an associated cold front will push east, allowing for another shift in winds as they become north- northwesterly at 15 to 20 knots into Monday morning. This enhanced onshore flow may allow for waves to build to 3 to 5 feet across the central basin. Will have to continue to monitor this period for the potential need for a Small Craft Advisory.

Winds will gradually weaken to 5 to 10 knots from the northwest as the low shifts east off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. These light winds will persist through Tuesday as high pressure builds into the region. Another mid- to late-week system will likely increase winds once again.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.