textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Confidence continues to increase in wet and warm conditions Tuesday onward.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A brief period of freezing rain remains possible Tuesday morning, but potential impacts remain limited at this time.

2) Warmer conditions with multiple rounds of rain are expected Tuesday through next weekend, bringing the potential for nuisance flooding and rising water levels on area rivers and creeks.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure and dry weather exit the region tonight as a warm front lifts north across the Ohio Valley. The warm front will begin the first round of several upcoming rounds of precipitation. Precipitation will push north across the local area late Monday night into Tuesday morning. A brief window of freezing rain along the leading edge remains possible as a warm nose aloft is coupled with surface temperatures below freezing Tuesday morning. Overall impacts from freezing rain remain limited with this forecast package. Anticipate for any areas of freezing rain to changeover to rain with daybreak Tuesday. Highest HREF probabilities (35-45%) for accumulated freezing rain (>0.01) remain localized to extreme Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Probabilities decrease to 15-25% across Northwest Ohio. Have maintained an HWO mention with this package, though future shifts may evaluate other messaging strategies if confidence in accumulating freezing rain increases.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Warm, active, and unsettled weather expected through the weekend with several rounds of rain and a few thunderstorms impacting the region. Highs in the 50s Tuesday and Wednesday will surge into the 60s Thursday and Friday with a few spots potentially reaching the low 70s on Saturday. Latest 7-day WPC QPF totals generally show between 1.5 to 2.5 inches through Sunday evening across Northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Still not overly concerned with the flood threat as 2-2.5 inches of rain over a period of several days will likely be handled. This is particularly true across Northwest Ohio where prolonged severe to extreme drought persists and upcoming rain may allow for area rivers and creeks to be restored. Will continue to monitor the situation, but currently only expecting nuisance flooding impacts if anything.

AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/

VFR conditions will prevail for this TAF update. Scattered to broken high level cirrus will drift through the skies through Monday. Winds will be from the Northeast 5-10 knots becoming more easterly later in the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in periods of rain Tuesday through Friday.

MARINE

Quiet marine conditions are expected through the week other than wind shifts. High pressure over the southern Great Lakes region will drift east today with weak east-northeast flow persisting through Wednesday. A stationary front that hangs around south of the lake will finally lift north across the lake on Thursday with south winds on Thursday becoming southwest on Friday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.