textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Probability of record breaking high temperatures today continues to increase.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather is expected begin this morning through Wednesday evening with record breaking high temperatures likely today.

2) Strong low pressure system is expected to move through the region on Friday with rain, strong winds, and the coldest air of the season so far. Temperatures will likely drop to at or below freezing for Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A low pressure system will begin to track through the Upper Great Lakes today after a warm front lifted north yesterday. This will have some weak shortwave energy to the south of the low center that will traverse across Lake Erie. This will reach down across Northeastern Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania early this morning with isolated rain showers and possible rumble of thunder or two. This energy will exit to the east quickly and high pressure will nose in from the south this afternoon. The surface high will be situated to the south-southeast allowing from sufficient WAA to occur across the region in the form of westerly low level winds. Temperatures as a result will rise into the upper 70s to mid 80s with the warmest temperatures across Western Ohio, west of I-71. Out of the climate sites, all but Youngstown and Erie, PA are forecast to either tie or break the record highs for today. Details on each sites record high temperatures can be found in the climate section below.

Late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, a secondary cold front associated with the low to the north will sweep north to south across the region. Rain showers and possible thunderstorms are expected to begin in Western Ohio after midnight and increase in coverage into the morning hours tomorrow. The best chance for thunderstorms will be across Central Ohio during the afternoon on Wednesday as the front will be making its way through. Given the timeframe of frontal passage, there will be limited instability so thunderstorm chances across Northern Ohio will be lower. Additionally, not expecting more than general thunderstorms at this time, though moderate to heavy rain showers will be possible. The cold front should settle across the Ohio Valley Wednesday evening and rain/thunderstorm chances will decrease into Thursday as high pressure builds in briefly to the north. Temperatures will also be muted with the rainfall and highs will reach into the upper 60s to low 70s across Northern Ohio and increasing to the upper 70s further south.

KEY MESSAGE 2... After the brief break in rain, a strong low pressure system is expected to move through the Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday. An upper level trough will begin to deepen across the Eastern Canadian Prairies Thursday morning and strengthen as it move eastward. Models have come into better agreement on the timing of the trough and how it interacts with the cut off low across the Southwestern CONUS. The trough axis should reach the Great Lakes by Friday evening and the associated surface low will begin deepening rapidly. In addition to the widespread rain showers that began Thursday evening, as the low deepens and the cold front passes through, winds will begin increasing out of the northwest with gusts up to 40 MPH likely throughout the day on Friday. Behind frontal passage, there will be a sharp temperature gradient dropping temperatures down to the coldest of the season so far. Temperatures by Saturday morning will be down into the 30s with some areas in Northwestern Pennsylvania dropping below freezing. Sunday morning will expected more widespread temperatures at or below freezing. Frost/Freeze headlines are likely for both days.

Model trends have high pressure building into the region quicker late Saturday night with any lingering precipitation clearing out earlier in the day. Depending on how quickly the high does build in, some showers across Northwestern Pennsylvania may have a few snowflakes mixed in. With the high building in, skies should clear out rather quickly since there will be ample dry air moving in. Temperatures will begin to regulate as well being near seasonal for Sunday and the start of next week.

AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/

A few light rain showers are possible just after 12Z near KERI or KYNG but otherwise, mostly sunny skies are expected today with breezy southwest winds with gusts to 25 knots this afternoon.

A cold front approaches from the north tonight, with showers likely early Wednesday morning. Timing and coverage is a bit uncertain at this point, though non-VFR will be possible with heavier showers. Isolated thunderstorms are also but confidence was too low to add to TAFs at this time. At the same time, MVFR ceilings to the east expand westward into Northwest Pennsylvania, including KERI.

Outlook...Intermittent non-VFR is likely Wednesday with widespread showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Additional non-VFR in rain is likely Thursday afternoon through Friday night with wind gusts exceeding 30 knots on Friday.

MARINE

Winds across Lake Erie this morning will increase to 10-20 knots out of the southwest with low pressure moving to the north and high pressure to the south of the region. The strongest winds are expected to be out in the open waters of the central and eastern basins. Areas along the near shore, mainly from Cleveland points east, could see winds approach 20 knots if the flow shifts more westerly. With the current forecast, not expecting sustained winds to do so but will need to monitor if there will be a need for a Small Craft Advisory. With the increased winds, waves will build to be 3-5 feet in the open waters and 2 feet or less in the near shore zones. High pressure builds in briefly late tonight and winds will shift to be northwesterly and weaken to less than 10 knots. By Thursday morning, winds will shift to be out of the northeast, increasing to 10-15 knots.

A strong low pressure system will approach the region early Friday and winds will shift to be out of the south briefly then out of the northwest behind the cold front Friday morning. The low will deepen rapidly as it moves through and winds will increase to near gales, if not over gales for the central basin, Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Gale Warnings are likely during that timeframe with Small Craft Advisory needed into early Sunday morning. Winds will be diminishing at that time to 10- 15 knots as high pressure builds into the region.

CLIMATE

Temperatures are forecast to be near record high values across Northwest and North Central Ohio on Tuesday. Records for October 13 are listed below for the official climate locations.

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie

10-13 83(1975) 84(1969) 82(1969) 82(1969) 83(1969) 83(1983)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LEZ147>149.