textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The only notable change with this forecast update is that thunder has been removed from the forecast this afternoon as the area remains stable.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Below average temperature will linger through Thursday and as cold front departs south.

2) Multiple rounds of widespread showers and thunderstorms will impact the holiday weekend. Heavy rain with totals of 1-1.5 inches may result in localized flooding.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A much colder Canadian high pressure has begun to push south across the area behind a departing cold front. 850mb temperatures around 6- 7C will settle across the area and persist through Thursday, keeping temperatures below average. Highs today and Thursday will only climb into the upper 50s to low 60s before cooling off overnight into the mid 40s. Given the expected widespread cloud coverage, not expecting radiational cooling to further lower these temperatures at all, precluded any potential for frost developing.

In addition, lingering light showers may persist into this evening across the southeastern tier of counties (closest to the departing boundary) possibly keeping temperatures cooler in the low 50s. Opted to remove the chance of thunder with this update as overall instability, both at the surface and elevated, remain very minimal. Overall rainfall totals for the remainder of today should remain less than 0.2 of an inch.

KEY MESSAGE 2... On Friday, the aforementioned high pressure will begin to drift east as a low pressure system begins to push north from the Gulf Coast region. As this system approaches the area on Friday, the chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms will return through much of the holiday weekend. Initially on Friday, overrunning of the warm, moist airmass couple with support from an upper level shortwave trough will allow for rain showers to expand northward. There remains high confidence in widespread showers with possible thunder late Friday into early Saturday as the very moist airmass continue to drift north. Looking at current forecast conditions, showers and storms should remain progressive with limited potential for training which will play into our favor given the increasing PWAT values throughout Friday night. By late Friday night/early Saturday morning, warm cloud layers will deepen to over 10kft with a strong LLJ nudging into the area. This will result in periods of very efficient, heavy rainfall late Friday through the day on Saturday as a warm front lifts north. As a result, current QPF totals for this time period are generally 1-1.5 inches. This amount of rainfall in a 24-hour time span has the potential to raise local river levels and result in nearby flooding concerns. In addition, localized ponding and flooding in typical spots is likely. To highlight the heavy rainfall for Friday into Saturday, WPC has put the Ohio portion of the area in a Day 3 Marginal (level 1 of 5) ERO. Saturday will warm throughout the day with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

As the warm front lifts north late Saturday, there should be a notable break in precipitation before widespread showers return on Sunday. The heaviest of these showers should be focused along and east of I71 where diurnal instability could result in scattered thunderstorms. In addition, mid and upper level support from a shortwave trough and upper level jet will further enhance support for widespread precipitation. The airmass will remain very moist and allow for an additional 0.25-0.5 inches of rain to fall, primarily over far NEOH and NWPA. This additional rainfall could further enhance ongoing flooding and result in additional flooding concerns. To highlight this, WPC has put the aforementioned area in a Day 4 Marginal (level 1 of 5) ERO. Highs on Sunday will climb into the mid to upper 70s.

Ultimately will have to monitor the flooding potential throughout the weekend as multiple periods of heavy rainfall is expected. On Memorial Day, showers should gradually diminish with temperatures lingering in the low to mid 70s.

AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/

The trend through the TAF period will be improving conditions as MVFR, and some patchy IFR, ceilings become VFR. Scattered showers continue across terminals though not anticipating any embedded thunderstorms across Northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania terminals. Showers will exit to the southeast tonight allowing for MVFR ceilings to lift to VFR, but remain under 5000 ft. High pressure will build over the region tonight into Thursday allowing for ceilings greater than 5000 ft by Thursday morning.

Northerly to northeasterly winds 8-12 knots this afternoon will decrease to 5-10 knots tonight. Expect for northeasterly winds to increase late Thursday morning to 10-15 knots with occasional gusts to 20-25 knots during peak heating.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected at times in rain late Friday through Saturday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms with non- VFR conditions possible again on Sunday and Monday.

MARINE

The first Beach Hazards Statement of 2026 has been issued given unsettled marine conditions expected to begin Thursday. Northeast winds tonight will increase to 15-20 knots with onshore flow allowing for wave heights to build to 3-5 feet by Thursday morning. Winds shift easterly Thursday night into Friday then southeasterly Friday and Friday night. Have issued Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements for the entirety of nearshore zones and their accompanying lakeshore counties. More information on timing for each hazard can be found below. Winds will favor an offshore component Saturday into the long weekend while diminishing to 10-15 knots Sunday and Monday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday morning through Friday evening for OHZ003-007-009-010. Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for OHZ011-012-089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 10 PM EDT Friday for LEZ142>145. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Thursday to 4 AM EDT Friday for LEZ146>149.