textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Two main systems for this forecast, and the timing and elements of each frontal system remain on track.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Expecting another surge of warmer weather today and Friday ahead of the next low pressure system which will bring the next round of showers/storms to the region.

2) Modest cool down this week in the wake of the first low pressure system, and a second low pressure system expected late Monday through Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Mid and upper level ridge builds into the southern Great Lakes, continuing with an temperature increases for today and Friday. A warm front will be slow to lift northeastward through the CWA today, and have a short period of slight chance POPs accordingly. Weakening low level jet and modest instability will hamper the thunderstorm potential to a point as dewpoints linger in the low to mid 50s. Steep low level lapse rates will assist with upward motion coupled with forcing from the low level frontogenesis. Could get some wind out of the showers and storms with and inverted V signature in the boundary layer. Should be enough overall to warrant the Marginal Risk on Day 2 from SPC. Temperatures will drop 10 to 15 degrees in the wake of the cold front with area wide 60s for the Saturday max temperatures. Should overall be less than an inch of rain with this system, provided there are not any examples of training convection occurring.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Gradual warm up, then another low pressure system moves in from the west for the beginning of next week. 60s Sunday become 70s again Monday. Southern plains region low pressure will move northeastward into the the northern GReat Lakes. Low pressure will strengthen along its track that will take the surface low west of the CWA. Showers and storms develop late Monday and will continue through Tuesday. Will have plenty of time to diagnose any severe weather threat as the forecast time gets closer, but for now, this looks like it will be a more organized system than the one expected the end of this week. Temperatures fall off again by 10-15 degrees for the middle of next week in the wake of the cold front.

AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/

Conditions are starting at VFR early this morning with just some 3500 to 6000 ft clouds across the region. There is some growth in the cloud field in Northwest Ohio and am concerned that this will limit the fog and low stratus potential in this region after the showers and storms on Wednesday evening. Therefore, have backed off a bit on IFR chances overnight and have just some short windows at KFDY and KMFD and have narrowed the MVFR windows elsewhere. Conditions should be VFR for Thursday with light southerly flow across the region. A lake breeze should develop and impact KERI and KCLE. There are hints of isolated showers and maybe a storm in Central Ohio and this could get into KMFD and/or KCAK. The development of this convection is very conditional and is too low confidence at this time to include in a TAF.

Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR possible Friday afternoon through Saturday morning and on Monday.

MARINE

An uneventful marine forecast continues into the weekend and into early next week with no marine headlines expected at this time. For today, a warm front will enter the region and will enter over the lake tonight. The front will struggle to advance north and will likely not fully cross the lake. Therefore, will have winds of light, mostly east to northeast flow through Friday. A low pressure system will move southeast through the Great Lakes region on Friday and cross the lake on Friday night. Winds will shift to the west and northwest with 10-15 kts of onshore flow. Behind this system, northerly flow will persist into Saturday and Sunday with high pressure building from the northwest. A large low pressure system will develop over the central portion of the country. This system will lift a warm front into the area on Monday, allowing for increasing easterly flow on the lake.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.