textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast low temperatures for Sunday night/early Monday have been trended slightly colder in Northeast OH and Northwest PA, and one last round of Cold Weather Advisories may need to be considered. No other substantial changes to the overall forecast or message for what looks like a quiet upcoming work-week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Remaining frigid with sub-zero wind chills expected both this morning and again tonight into early Monday. This cold poses a continued risk of cold exposure for those outside without proper protection, along with a risk of infrastructure issues. A warming trend begins on Monday.

2) Limited precipitation chances in the forecast for the next several days, with some potential late week into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Lake effect clouds may produce a few flurries early this morning across Northwest PA, with no accumulations expected. A narrow band of snow with a clipper is largely expected to miss our area to the southwest this morning, though light snow may get close to clipping Hancock/Wyandot/Marion Counties around sunrise. If any snow clips our area, it will be very brief and light.

Otherwise, there is high confidence in dry weather lingering through Tuesday morning. A weak cold front crosses late Tuesday or Tuesday night...the forecast currently does not have mentionable POPs, though low-mid level moisture will try returning just ahead of the front. If the front trends slower or moisture return trends more aggressive, a chance for very light rain may be needed with the front late Tuesday.

Guidance is in better agreement that ridging will press in enough from the north to keep us dry Wednesday and Thursday. With 850mb temperatures of -12C to -15C Wednesday into Thursday and broad northwest flow, some very limited lake effect snow may occur in Northeast OH and Northwest PA.

A shortwave and potential developing surface low is expected to track well to our south on Friday. Operational models and ensembles are in better agreement early this morning that precip with this feature should remain to our south, with high pressure in control locally. All models and ensembles have another shortwave ejecting out of the southwest and across the central or southern U.S. next weekend, though disagree quite a bit on the exact timing/organization of this system. The forecast has a chance for rain/snow next weekend in response to the signal for a system, but with very low confidence in any details.

AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/

VFR conditions across much of the region and will continue through the TAF period. There are a band of VFR ceilings across NE OH and NW PA that will continue through this morning before scattering out. There will be ceilings moving across the western terminals and far east as KMFD today, though should all stay VFR then scatter out late in the TAF period.

Winds are light and variable currently and will continue through much of the morning as high pressure moves overhead. Winds will then progressively shift to be out of the north to northeast at around 5 knots by midday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain/snow showers Tuesday night into Wednesday.

MARINE

Lake Erie remains mostly ice-covered. Winds light and variable through tonight under high pressure become southerly around 10kts Monday and Monday night, and then southwesterly 10-20kts Tuesday. A cold front then passes through Tuesday night with winds 10-20kts out of the northwest through Thursday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ012>014-022-023-032-033-089. PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ001>003. MARINE...None.