textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Have added some fog to the forecast for late tonight and early Tuesday morning, but otherwise the forecast remains on track and no impactful changes were needed.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry weather expected through Tuesday before shower and thunderstorm chances return Wednesday through late week. Near normal temperatures expected.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure will maintain influence over the region through Tuesday, resulting in widespread dry weather over the next couple of days. Patchy to areas of radiation fog are possible at inland locations primarily across NE OH/NW PA due to clear skies and light winds, but as of now the likelihood of significant impacts to visibilities is low.

Rain chances will increase as a shortwave/weakening upper low lifts north/northeast from the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible primarily in the southeastern part of the area Wednesday afternoon/evening, but it's still possible that most locations remain dry until an upper trough and frontal boundary approach from the west Thursday and move across the area on Friday. Will need to keep an eye on the potential for heavy rainfall late in the week given mean flow parallel to the frontal boundary and forecast dew points in the upper 60s and possibly lower 70s. There's also some potential for organized and perhaps strong thunderstorms at some point late in the week, but confidence in the timing and placement of synoptic features and the resulting thunderstorm chances is still low at this point in the forecast cycle. Rain chances continue through the upcoming weekend as a series of disturbances potentially cross the area.

Temperatures will be near normal for the next several days with temps possibly increasing to slightly above normal values over the weekend. Highs will be in the 80s each day with overnight lows in the 60s, although tonight will be an exception with lows in the 50s.

AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/

High pressure will remain in place through Tuesday, with widespread VFR conditions and light/variable winds across the region tonight. There is a moderate risk for patchy MVFR/IFR fog development overnight, however, any fog that does develop will be short-lived and will dissipate quickly after sunrise. FEW-SCT cumulus with bases 030-050 are possible Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook...Periods of showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR conditions will develop across northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania Wednesday afternoon and evening. Showers, and occasional storms, will become more widespread across the region Thursday, and continue through the weekend.

MARINE

Winds become variable under 10kts tonight through Wednesday as high pressure drifts further away from the southern Great Lakes. Wave heights less than a foot mornings and evenings, but could be around a foot or so during the afternoon hours through Wednesday. Southwest winds 10kts expected Thursday and Friday with wave heights around a foot for the central and eastern basin, and less than a foot in the western basin.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.