textproduct: Cleveland

SYNOPSIS

High pressure continues to build to the southeast through Tuesday night as a weak cold front will move across the region on Wednesday. On Thursday a stronger low pressure system will move to the northern Great Lakes bringing a warm front north across the region Wednesday night followed by a cold front on Thursday. High pressure will build in Friday into Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Have increased cloud cover for tonight to account for the current cloud deck that has developed over the region and should remain for most of the night.

Previous Discussion... High pressure continues to build off to the southeast of the Ohio Valley this afternoon into Wednesday morning. The supporting upper level ridge will move eastward out of the Great Plains and deamplify as it does. Quiet weather is expected through the majority of the time frame. Temperatures today will begin a warming trend through the end of the week with southerly flow and WAA by being dominate on the western side of the high pressure. High temperatures today will reach into the low to mid 30s with some areas in northwest Pennsylvania staying in the upper 20s. On Wednesday, a shortwave will be moving through the Great Lake region. There will be a vort max that will reach down south into Lake Erie, but the majority of the energy will stay to the north. There will be some low level moisture underneath a fairly dry mid level that will confined to northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania bringing the chance for some low chance precipitation in the early morning mainly before 12Z. There is a possibility within that area that the precipitation could fall as freezing drizzle or mixed precipitation. This is a fairly low probability of this occurring since only a couple of models, mainly the NAM which does tend to overforecast low-level moisture. But regardless, if there is any precipitation, roads and walkways could become slick if untreated with the ground temperatures still well below freezing due. This feature will move out quickly to the east by midday Wednesday with dry weather expected for the remainder of the period with a weak ridge and surface high pressure building in.

Temperatures will continue the warming trend on Wednesday with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s with overnight lows in the mid 20s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

On Thursday, a strong low pressure system will begin to take shape over the western Great Lakes that will bring impacts to the region through Friday evening. A warm front will move north across the area late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning increasing southerly flow and WAA and increasing surface level winds/gusts for the majority of the period. Models will depict low level flow at 925mb at 45-55 knots throughout the day on Thursday, though with it being WAA it will be more difficult to get all of those winds to translate down to the surface. Currently, gusts are forecast to be around 30-35 mph with lower probabilities for gusts exceeding 40 mph. For Wind Advisory criteria, the probabilities have been continuing to decrease over the past few forecast cycles, so at this time not expecting widespread advisory wind gusts though can't rule out a few isolated gusts over 40 mph. Winds will decrease quickly behind the cold front late Friday night.

Ahead of the cold front, there will be widespread precipitation across the region Thursday afternoon into early Friday. PoPs will begin increasing Thursday morning and peak during the afternoon/evening hours between 18Z Thursday through 06Z Friday. There will be strong moisture advection ahead of the cold front allowing for QPF totals to be around 0.50" with some localized areas seeing totals near an inch. Currently flooding is not a concern for this system given the lower QPF and that the region is still recovering for drought conditions from the past few months. Behind the cold front there will be strong CAA and any remaining precipitation will transition over to snow by late Thursday evening out west into early Friday morning to the east. With the strong CAA, 850mb temperatures will plummet from the 8C they were during the day on Thursday to around -12C by Friday which has trended warmer over the past couple of days. At any rate, there will be some lake effect snow showers across the primary snow belt behind the cold front with a northwesterly wind across Lake Erie. These showers will last into late Friday night and end once the incoming ridge builds into the region shifting the winds and limiting moisture.

Temperatures on Thursday will be the warmest they have been in a few weeks due to the strong WAA and southerly flow. Highs will reach into the upper 40s with some areas possible hitting the 50s. Though, by Thursday night, temperatures will drop quickly behind the cold front and be down into the low to mid 20s by Friday morning. Friday's temperatures won't recover much as we'll continue to be in the northwesterly flow and highs will only be in the high 20s to low 30s and overnight lows down in the low 20s with some locations in the teens.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

A ridge will briefly build into the region Saturday morning and move east throughout the day. Any lingering lake effect precipitation will end as flow shift to be more southwesterly across the region and moisture moves out to the east. Saturday is expected to be mainly dry for the majority of the region outside of the lingering lake effect showers and temperatures will recover with the southwesterly flow with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s. On Sunday, a trough will be moving north of the region with a surface low pressure system moving north of the Great Lakes dragging a cold front through the area. At this point, the system looks to be on the weaker side, though will still bring precipitation to northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania. Ridging will build in behind the low with surface high pressure building across the region and dry weather is expected. Temperatures in the long term will be just below average through the weekend into early next week with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s and overnight lows down in the mid 20s.

AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

A fairly expansive area of MVFR ceilings has developed over North Central and Northeast Ohio this evening with more low ceilings over the Ohio River Valley. These clouds will likely continue to stream into the region from the southwest overnight. Ceilings will teeter for most between 1500 and 2500 ft and will opt for more pessimistic ceilings within the MVFR category with 1700-2000 ft being the most common observation in the area. Northwest Ohio will start generally clear with just some passing high clouds. The next batch of MVFR will move in later tonight and will have MVFR return to KTOL and KFDY overnight. A 50 kt low level jet is moving through the region tonight and with the surface winds stabilizing, expecting LLWS conditions across the region overnight and have wind shear in all of the TAFs except for KERI, where some surface gusts with the downsloping wind direction could make LLWS less favorable. Will end the LLWS with increasing surface winds near daybreak on Wednesday. Another round of low ceilings will enter from the northwest on Wednesday and keep ceilings MVFR for the area. Ceilings will lift later in the day on Wednesday and have some terminals trending to VFR.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with rain and/or snow Thursday through Friday evening. South to southwest wind gusts up to 40 knots are possible Thursday into Friday.

MARINE

Southwest winds increase to 20 to 30 knots tonight ahead of low pressure moving into the Upper Great Lakes then veer to westerly on Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the nearshore waters west of Vermilion through noon and to the east through 7 PM. A ridge briefly builds overhead on Wednesday night then shifts east Thursday. A stronger low pressure system moves into the Upper Great Lakes on Thursday, lifting a warm front north across Lake Erie. Winds ramp up to 30 knots during the day again on Thursday, then potentially to 35 knot gales Thursday night into Friday as the system pulls a cold front east across Lake Erie. The window of strong southwesterly winds could result in low water conditions on the western basin of Lake Erie.

Winds decrease Friday night as a ridge builds east through the Ohio Valley but Small Craft Advisories will continue as the waves subside. Only a brief break in headlines is likely as winds back to southerly on Saturday and ramp up to 20-30 knots again as the next system moves into the Upper Midwest. Another weak cold front crosses the lake Saturday night into Sunday with winds veering to westerly and another round of Small Craft Advisories.

Substantial ice coverage has developed west of the Lake Erie Islands. Wave heights are for ice free areas. Multiple rounds of strong winds this week combined with warmer temperatures are likely to break up the ice on the western basin.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for LEZ142>144. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ145>149.