textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes from the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry weather is favored across the area through much of next week. Temperatures will be slightly below normal Monday and Tuesday and patchy frost is possible Monday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure will be over the area today with most sunny skies and dry weather expected. The high will drift northeast tonight, allowing a cold front to move east across the area on Sunday. Guidance generally favors a dry frontal passage given insufficient mid-level moisture, although isolated showers can't be completely ruled out across portions of NW PA immediately along the cold front Sunday evening.

From there, Canadian high pressure will build over the region and maintain influence as it drifts east across the northeastern CONUS through at least the middle of next week. This will foster dry weather and cooler temperatures Monday and Tuesday. High temps will be in the low to mid 60s Monday and Tuesday, although temperatures will begin to recover on Wednesday as warm air advection develops on the back side of the high. Overnight lows will be in the 40s across most of the area starting tonight with the coolest temperatures expected with the most efficient radiational cooling Monday and Tuesday nights. Temps will be especially chilly Monday night, when widespread lower 40s and upper 30s are expected. This will introduce potential for patchy to areas of frost development late Monday into early Tuesday, best chance across typical cold spots in interior NE OH and NW PA. Isolated instances of frost are possible Tuesday night, although temperatures will be slightly warmer so any frost would be limited to sheltered areas in valleys.

Isolated rain chances may return late next week as the next cold front moves across the area, but dry weather is likely due to ample low to mid-level dry air.

AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/

VFR through the period. Winds northeasterly 5 to 10 knots through Saturday evening.

Outlook...Overall VFR conditions expected this weekend into early next week.

MARINE

Winds have diminished below 20 knots and waves have subsided below 4 feet so will let the Small Craft Advisory expire at 4 AM. Winds will be out of the northeast at 10 to 15 knots today, which could produce marginally choppy conditions in the nearshore zones of the central basin. Winds will shift to the southeast and diminish below 10 knots tonight before becoming more westerly Sunday. The next chance of Small Craft Advisory conditions will arrive as northwest winds increase behind a cold front Sunday night into Monday. Expect winds to diminish Monday night with light and variable flow anticipated over Lake Erie on Tuesday. By Wednesday morning, winds should become offshore and increase.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for LEZ146>148.