textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warming trend Tuesday and Wednesday.

2) Showers expected ahead of and with a cold front Wednesday into Wednesday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Expansive high pressure will drift off the mid Atlantic coastal region providing the southern Great Lakes with deep southerly flow in the next couple of days. With 850mb temperatures climbing into the lower teens with warm air advection, expecting high temperatures 10-20 degrees above normal for Tuesday and Wednesday, possibly pushing record highs in places Tuesday. Wednesday should lag a bit with the potential introduction of showers into the region ahead of the cold front marching in from the west.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Deep upper low will push from the southern high plains towards the upper Mississippi Valley, driving a Pacific cold front west to east into the CWA. Line of showers moves into the western zones after 15Z Wednesday. Looking at the low level f-gen for this system, it appears the system may turn weakly frontolytic as it moves through the CWA Wednesday, with the line possibly becoming more scattered as it does so. This would correlate with the occluding nature of the surface and upper level low pressure systems, but still expect precipitation for all zones of the CWA and will need to watch for the development of surface waves along the cold front. Temperatures back down towards normal for the end of the week and into the weekend with continued upper level troughing over the CWA and off and on rain chances during this time as well.

AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/

A band of lower clouds and some light showers is lifting northeast across the area right now, bringing a period of MVFR ceilings with some occasional IFR also observed. Drier air and higher ceilings will lift in from the south-southwest this morning, allowing conditions to return to VFR. VFR is then expected to persist through the remainder of the TAFs. The main challenge with this set of TAFs was timing the improvement to VFR, and some AMDs may be needed early this morning. South- southeast winds in the 5-10kt range will shift south-southwest and increase slightly to 8-14kt with some 20-25kt gusts Tuesday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain Wednesday into Thursday.

MARINE

Offshore winds 10-20kts through early Wednesday ahead of a cold front will mean wave heights increase progressively away from shore. In general, 2ft or less for the nearshore zones, and 2-4ft in the open water zones should be expected during this time. A cold front late Wednesday/Wednesday night turns winds more southwesterly 10- 20kts through Thursday, with wave heights in the nearshore zones east of Cleveland now in the 1-3ft range while wave height forecast s for the other zones remains the same.

CLIMATE

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 11-03 77(1987) 76(2015) 79(1961) 80(1961) 80(1961) 80(1961) 11-04 80(2003) 77(2015) 79(2003) 76(2015) 77(2003) 78(2015)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.