textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

There is increasing confidence for accumulating snowfall in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania on Monday night with increasing potential for a couple inches of snow in the higher elevations of Erie County, PA.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold pattern will continue across the region through Tuesday with scattered precipitation chances and below normal temperatures. Some snow is possible tonight, but a more clear transition to snow is expected on Monday evening with light snowfall accumulation expected in NE OH and NW PA.

2) The pattern will shift in the middle of the week with temperatures returning to normal. Dry weather is expected on Wednesday and most of Thursday. Rain chances may return late in the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Overall, conditions will be overcast and cool through this evening with a couple isolated showers that may ripple through with a surface trough near the area. High pressure will build from the southwest tonight and allow for a window of dry weather. Temperatures will fall into the 30s with some cold air advection on the northeast side of the surface high and elevated winds will have wind chills in the 20s. For Monday, an upper trough will move through the region with a weak surface low and cold front moving southeast through the forecast area. Some rain showers will be possible, especially in the eastern half of the forecast area. With broader lift aloft, cold advection over a warming Lake Erie, and upslope components in the hills of NE OH and PA, expecting rain to persist, eventually transitioning to snow in this region. Have continued to maintain PoPs higher than the NBM with a broad area of 50%+. Not unreasonable to see a couple tenths of QPF in this region and having accumulating snowfall. Continuing a general theme of 1-3" but some locations in Erie County, PA may try to overachieve if snow showers can persist. Given recent warmth and decreasing nighttime hours, surface/pavement temperatures will need to fall before accumulations start becoming impactful and the first half inch to inch of snow may melt off. Lows on Monday night will be in the 20s with wind chills in the teens.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A cold high pressure system enters on Tuesday, drying out the region. This system will shift east for Wednesday, keeping dry conditions in place but allowing temperatures to recover into the 50s. The next system continues a slowing trend and Thursday is starting to look like a dry day with temperatures above normal in the mid-to-upper 60s. The next system will enter for Friday and Saturday, bringing the next areawide chance of rain. There could be some potential for storms at the end of the week, but there is still time to sort out some of those details.

AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/

Generally expect broken ceilings between 3500 and 5000 ft AGL for the first couple of hours of the TAF period, but a period of clearing is likely later this evening into the overnight hours. An area of showers will move east/southeast into the western part of the local area at about 08Z Monday before reaching eastern terminals by 12-13Z. Largely expect rain at most terminals, but a rain/snow mix is more likely at KERI/KTOL. Expect ceilings to drop to MVFR with periods of non-VFR visibilities in precipitation, especially in locations that receive a rain/snow mix. There will probably be a lull in precip for a couple of hours before scattered diurnal showers develop Monday afternoon into Monday evening. Opted for VCSH at all terminals east of KTOL/KFDY since confidence in any showers moving directly over terminals is too low to put in prevailing/TEMPO groups for precipitation. Ceilings may recover to VFR outside of NE OH/NW PA on Monday afternoon.

Winds will be out of the west/northwest at around 10 knots for the first couple of hours of the TAF period before diminishing below 10 knots and becoming more southwesterly overnight. Winds will once again shift to the west/northwest and increase to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots on Monday afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely Monday night into Tuesday morning in rain and/or snow showers, particularly across the snowbelt. Non-VFR may return in scattered rain showers Thursday night into Friday.

MARINE

Rough marine conditions will persist across Lake Erie into this evening with west winds of 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 6 feet. Conditions will briefly improve tonight into Monday as winds diminish, though rough conditions may return again Monday night into Tuesday as northwest flow of 20 knots arrives across the lake. Another Small Craft Advisory will be needed during this timeframe. A longer stretch of quieter marine conditions will arrive on Wednesday as high pressure builds across the region. Offshore flow will return across Lake Erie on Thursday into Friday, 15 to 25 knots, though odds of a Small Craft Advisory are low at this time with the highest winds located in the open waters.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>149.