textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Confidence in lake effect snow Tuesday night into Thursday is increasing, so have increased precipitation chances and QPF/snowfall amounts. There's also low-end potential of a brief period of mixed precipitation across NW PA late tonight into Tuesday morning, but any impacts should be marginal.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periods of lake effect snow showers likely across portions of the snowbelt region of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Tuesday night into Thursday.

2) Temperatures will trend warmer but remain close to normal for the majority of the forecast period.

KEY MESSAGE 2

While a few spots have touched freezing in the last week, most locations will see their first day with temperatures above freezing in quite some time on Tuesday as highs climb into the upper 30s and lower 40s. Cold air advection will cause temperatures to dip Wednesday and Thursday, although temperatures certainly won't be as bitterly cold as recent days. Temperatures will likely rise above freezing and stay above freezing by the weekend, but temps may vary depending on the exact track of a system that will lift along the East Coast and perhaps the local area sometime late this weekend. Precipitation is likely with this system, although precipitation type will depend on temperatures.

The gradually warming temperatures will result in a relatively gradual thaw/melt in snowpack and river ice. While minor ice jam issues cannot be completely ruled out over the weekend, the thaw should be gradual enough to preclude a significant ice jam flooding risk. At the very least, ice is not expected to grow on area rivers/streams/creeks.

AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/

VFR conditions will continue through the majority of the TAF period as high pressure builds off to the east ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Widespread ceilings of around 10kft are seen across the region and should continue through this morning. There's low potential for precipitation for KERI Tuesday morning, but latest trends keep it to the northeast with no impacts for the airfield. MVFR to IFR ceilings will move in from the west-southwest Tuesday afternoon as a cold front sweeps through the region. Ceilings will rise to MVFR at locations that dropped to IFR after 00Z Wednesday when the front has cleared the region.

Winds will be a concern throughout the TAF period as they will be shifting around the low with the passing warm and cold fronts. Kept the mention of LLWS for KTOL starting at 12Z as mixing won't occur until the mid morning. Other sites across the region will be mixing enough by the time the stronger low level winds move through to allow for gusts at the surface, so left out LLWS at those airfields. Throughout the day, winds will shift from out of the south to the west-northwest by the end of the TAF period with sustained with 10-15 knots and gusting 20-25 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in snow showers across NE OH and NW PA Tuesday evening through Wednesday night.

MARINE

Lake Erie remains nearly completely ice-covered with a notable crack observed on satellite extending from Cleveland to points northeast. Winds tonight will remain south-southeasterly at less than 10 knots. Winds will shift to become south-southwesterly on Tuesday and increase to 10-15 knots as a warm front lifts north. As an associated cold front sweeps east late Tuesday into Wednesday, winds will back to become west-northwesterly and increase 13-20 knots. Winds will gradually weaken to below 15 knots for Thursday into the start of the weekend. Ice will be prone to some movement east of the Lake Erie Islands this week.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.