textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather pattern this week will result in multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms.

2) Above average temperatures return today and persist through the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Surface low pressure pushing across the Upper Midwest today will lift a warm front northeast through the local forecast area today. Simultaneously, a shortwave aloft will glide east across Lower Michigan and the Lower Great Lakes region. The majority of the forecast area should remain dry today, but can't rule out a stray shower clipping lakeshore zones given the location of the support aloft. Any QPF from the showers will be minimal.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase by Monday as the aforementioned low drags a cold front east across the region. Ahead of the cold front, the region will solidly be in the warm sector which will yield MUCAPE values of 400-700 J/kg. Can't rule out the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop, though SPC continues to highlight our forecast area in a General Thunder (i.e. no severe threat) for Monday. Will continue to monitor any future updates or adjustments to the SWODY for that timeframe. In addition to shower/thunderstorm chances, it will be breezy today and Monday. Southerly to southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph are forecast to gust to 30-35 mph each afternoon.

A series of low pressure systems and surface boundaries will linger across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions through the rest of this week. This will keep chance PoPs in the forecast for the foreseeable future. Heavy rainfall and the potential for strong to severe storms both remain possible with this forecast update. The timeframe of note will be midweek where the best synoptic support and afternoon destabilization exist. WPC has highlighted portions of Northwest Ohio in their Days 4 and 5 Excessive Rainfall outlook. Given the progressive nature of these systems, not expecting any major flooding concerns at this point, even with the antecedent wet conditions from recent rainfall.

KEY MESSAGE 2... As the warm front lifts northeast, high temperatures this afternoon will rise into the 70s areawide. High temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s will continue through this week. Overnight lows will also remain warm in the upper 50s to lower 60s each night.

AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/

VFR conditions in scattered to broken high clouds are expected through about 06Z Monday before showers begin to move east into NW OH. The showers will overspread most of the area through 12Z Monday. Non-VFR conditions are likely in lower visibilities/ceilings in more persistent rain, although confidence in the placement and timing of any IFR conditions remains low at this point. Winds will be out of the southeast at 10 knots or less for the first couple of hours of the forecast period before becoming south/southwest and increasing to 10 to 20 knots near or shortly after 15Z. Gusts to 20 to 30 knots are likely with the highest gusts closer to 30 knots expected at KTOL/KFDY. A strong low level jet will move over the region after 00Z tonight and expect a period of LLWS and perhaps a period of lower surface gusts through early Monday morning.

Outlook...Occasional non-VFR conditions are expected in periodic showers and thunderstorms Monday through Thursday.

MARINE

Southeast winds at around 10 knots are expected this morning before shifting to the southwest behind a warm front this afternoon and increasing to 15 to 20 knots this evening through Monday. There may be periods where winds very briefly exceed 20 knots through Monday afternoon, although offshore flow will focus the higher waves into the open waters of the lake. With that being said, winds may be just westerly enough to produce waves just over 4 feet in the nearshore waters of the eastern basin Monday morning into Monday afternoon and a brief Small Craft Advisory may be needed during that timeframe. Winds will diminish to about 10 knots Monday night, however periods of elevated winds will likely persist through Thursday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.