textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Cold temperatures are still anticipated through Sunday night, however the likelihood of the issuance of Cold Weather Advisories the next two nights remains low. Confidence in accumulating snow late next week continues to slowly increase, however overall confidence in accumulations and resulting impacts is still low.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... An Arctic air mass will remain in place over the area through the remainder of the weekend, resulting in continued frigid temperatures. Widespread cloud cover across the area has resulted in teens in the single digits and teens this afternoon and expect lows in the 0 to -5 degree range tonight. Winds will be a bit more elevated with northwest winds reaching 5 to 10 mph in several locations, resulting in minimum wind chills between -5 and -15 degrees tonight. The colder wind chills closer to -15 degrees (possibly a little bit colder in localized areas) will occur in typical cold spots, which is supported by 12Z HREF probabilities. Similar to last night, cloud cover may limit radiational cooling which could lead to warmer minimum temperatures and warmer wind chills. Will need to keep an eye on satellite and wind trends; a Cold Weather Advisory may need to be introduced for tonight if winds trend higher and/or clouds clear more than currently anticipated.

Temperatures will be slightly warmer (widespread mid to upper teens) during the day Sunday and Sunday night will feature one last night of near zero to subzero temperatures for at least a couple of days. Sunday night's wind chills will generally be in the -5 to -10 degree range, although once again the typical cold spots may be a few degrees cooler. Do not anticipate needing a Cold Weather Advisory at this point. Expect temperatures to "warm" into the 20s during the day Monday.

Despite the lack of cold weather headlines, the continued cold will continue to produce similar impacts on infrastructure, people, and animals through at least the end of the weekend. Some impacts may persist into the work week as temps stay below freezing.

KEY MESSAGE 2... An upper trough has pushed south across Lake Erie and residual moisture behind the feature will produce continued chances of light snow showers through this evening. Have certainly seen a downward trend in snowfall rates and dendrite size with the loss of the best forcing, so any additional accumulations should be minimal. However, given the sub-freezing pavement temperatures, any snowfall rates that are higher than flurries will likely produce at least a dusting on roadways which could result in additional slippery travel. More persistent snow may also produce brief reductions in visibility.

Snow showers will diminish by Sunday morning at the latest and the next disturbance will bring low-end chances of light snow showers to the entire area on Monday with some lake-enhanced snow showers (influenced by the open water on upstream Great Lakes) possible into early Tuesday. Accumulations should be light and any impacts would be similar to today.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Deterministic guidance continues to suggest the potential for widespread snowfall and the return of cold weather as low pressure pushes southeast from the Upper Great Lakes late in the week. However, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the evolution and track of the low and the resulting placement and timing of snow accumulations/impacts across the area. Any impacts would likely occur at some point between Thursday night and Friday evening. Stay tuned for updates!

AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/

MVFR ceilings will begin to break down after 16Z Sunday as the 925mb level begins to dry out. Light snow continues for the next few hours, off and on across portions of northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania. High pressure influences move in from the south for Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Northwest winds less than 12kts.

Outlook...Periodic non-VFR due to low clouds and/or snow expected through this Wednesday.

MARINE

In the dead of winter and surprisingly no flags are expected throughout this marine forecast package. Wind speeds are expected to remain between 5 to 15 knots. Northernly winds will slowly back to the west tonight through Monday as the high pressure moves east from the Mid Mississippi Valley across the Tennessee Valley. Winds will finally veer to the west Monday night through Tuesday as a very weak cold front tracks east across Lake Erie. Behind the front, west to northwest winds are expected through Wednesday as another ridge builds into the region. Persistent cold air in place and a relatively weak wind flow will allow extensive ice cover on Lake Erie to expand and thicken further through the middle of next week.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.