textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Confidence has decreased in regards to the potential for frost tonight across the area, resulting in no need for headlines at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cooler temperatures expected Thursday before returning to near normal by the end of the week. Chilly nights may result in patchy frost development.

2) Widespread showers return for the end of the week into the weekend before another below average temperature airmass returns next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A cooler airmass associated with below average temperatures has pushed into the area and is expected to persist through Thursday night. This high pressure system will be characterized by 850mb temperatures falling to 0 to -2C, although it is uncertain how much of this will translate to the surface. Overnight lows tonight and on Thursday night should remain in the upper 30s to low 40s with the warmest temperatures expected nearest the lakeshore. There is a bit of uncertainty however is the progression and timing of clouds overnight. In areas that see a period of clearing, enhanced radiational cooling has the potential to lower these temperatures a bit more, possibly resulting in patchy frost developing. The best chance of frost remains west of I-71 and across NWPA both tonight and Thursday night, but will have to continue to monitor conditions for the need of a headline. For the time being, a suggested proactive action is to cover or bring indoors vulnerable vegetation that has begun to bloom this spring.

KEY MESSAGE 2... As high pressure drifts east Thursday night, a mid-level shortwave trough will push east, providing some weak support for scattered light showers to develop. The bulk of precipitation associated with this end of week low pressure should occur on Friday and Friday night. Initially, shower development along a weak warm front will push north across the area Friday, followed by more widespread precipitation Friday night into early Saturday. Given the overall timing of the frontal passages, chances of thunder remain minimal and QPF totals should remain generally below 0.5" keeping any flooding concerns at bay. This cold front boundary should stall just east of the area, acting as a path for the next low pressure system moving northeast late Saturday.

This late Saturday into Monday system is expected to be a bit more robust as an upper level trough dig south across the Great Lakes region, providing good synoptic support for the surface low. In addition, ample moisture advection coupled with a LLJ and support from a strong jet aloft should result in widespread showers pushing west to east on Sunday into early Monday. Cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder on Sunday as timing looks to be more convectively favorable, but overall severe potential remains low at this point.

Behind this Sunday/Monday system, temperatures look to return to below average with highs once again in the 50s to low 60s through Tuesday and overnight lows dropping into the low 40s.

AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/

The main message for aviation weather will be VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. VFR ceilings are expected to continue through tomorrow with ceilings mainly above 5000 feet. West-northwest winds will average 5-11 knots this afternoon, backing to more westerly tonight into Thursday 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are expected Friday through Sunday.

MARINE

Overall mainly quiet weather conditions are expected on Lake Erie through this weekend. High pressure is building over the lake today and tonight. Northwest to west-northwest winds of 5 to 15 knots is expecting this afternoon and tonight. Winds will become more westerly 5 to 15 knots on Thursday. West to southwest winds 10 to 15 knots is expected Thursday night into Friday. Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots will continue on Saturday. By Sunday, a cold front will slide across the lake and winds will turn northerly 10 to 15 knots. No marine headlines are expected through this weekend at this time.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.