textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm and dry conditions midweek onward with occasional shower and thunderstorm chances returning Friday and continuing through early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Quiet, dry, and warmer today as high pressure begins to push eastward and usher in southerly return flow. Highs today will be roughly 15-20 degrees warmer compared to Tuesday as they top out in the mid to upper 50s. As the high exits to the east, surface low pressure and accompanying shortwave aloft will glide east across the Northern Great Lakes tonight. The low will introduce a cold front to the region by Thursday before the front stalls in the vicinity of Lake Erie. Showers with afternoon thunderstorms will be possible Thursday and Thursday night ahead of the cold front. Another shortwave aloft will move overhead on Friday which will allow for the cold front to glide southeast across the forecast area. Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms remain in place on Friday with the frontal passage. QPF amounts with the frontal passage remain generally under 0.50 inches across the entire forecast area.

High pressure returns for the weekend behind the cold front with highs in the upper 50s Saturday warming into the mid 70s by Sunday. Warm but unsettled weather is expected early next week as multiple shortwaves aloft move through the region with afternoon highs remaining in the 70s through Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

VFR conditions are expected for this TAF update. Isolated to scattered mid level clouds FL080-120 this afternoon with a dry warm front lifting northeastward through the southern Great Lakes. Winds generally less than 12kts, but the isolated gust to 15-17kts not completely out of the question for the western terminals this afternoon during peak heating. Low level jet moves in tonight, and with the decoupling from a surface inversion, will add LLWS to the forecast until heating mixes the boundary layer tomorrow and it becomes gusts at the surface, which could be in the range of 20-30kts towards the end of the forecast period.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain showers Thursday night through Friday evening.

MARINE

Marine conditions are expected to become breezy with offshore winds increasing tonight into Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. Southeasterly winds this afternoon and evening will be 10 to 15 knots. Overnight southerly winds will increase 15 to 20 knots by early Thursday morning and remain breezy into Thursday. We will watch the trends for a possible SCA but it may be a marginal situation. The frontal boundary will sag towards Lake Erie by Thursday evening but slow down as a wave of low pressure tracks along the front Thursday night into Friday morning. The cold front will eventually push across the lake later on Friday. Winds will continue southwesterly Friday 10 to 20 knots followed by a wind shift from the north 5 to 12 knots Friday night. High pressure will be near the lake this weekend with a light northeasterly to easterly flow expected on Saturday. A return flow of southerly winds will be back by Sunday morning, increasing during the day 10 to 20 knots.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.