textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No impactful changes were made with this morning's forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Nicer and drier weather will arrive today for most of the area. Scattered lake effect rain showers with isolated thunder possible will continue to impact far NEOH and NWPA today through tonight.

3) A weak cold front will move across the Great Lakes region late Wednesday night into Thursday with the next chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Scattered lake effect rain showers and isolated thunder will continue to impact the "Snowbelt" area of far Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania today through tonight. A deep upper level trough has developed over the eastern half of the Great Lakes this morning and will slowly move eastward by tomorrow. The backside of this trough will continue to bring a cooler northerly flow over the eastern Great Lakes today and tonight before it finally pulls away Tuesday. Therefore, scattered lake effect rain showers will continue over NEOH and NWPA through early Tuesday morning. Rain chances or POPS will be likely today and gradually decrease overnight into early Tuesday morning.

For the rest of northern and central Ohio, nicer weather will return today with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and drier weather. High pressure will build across the Ohio Valley today and continue to bring very nice weather through Wednesday. High temperatures will be cooler today with upper 60s in far NEOH and NWPA where there will be more clouds and showers from lake effect. North central and Northwest Ohio will have more sunshine with passing scattered clouds and high temps in the lower to middle 70s. It will also feel less humid with the drier airmass moving. High temps will slowly climb over the next few days reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday areawide. Overnight low temps will be in the 50s away from the immediate lakeshore.

KEY MESSAGE 2.. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Wednesday night through Thursday evening with a weak, slow moving cold front across the Great Lakes region. The latest model guidance has trended slightly downward on POPs and QPF. At this time, it appears there will be scattered showers and some thunder possible with the greater POPs around 40 to 50 percent during day Thursday. Severe weather is not expected at this as the thermodynamics looks fairly weak. High pressure will build back into the region on Friday with warm and nice day. High temperatures will climb through next weekend with lower to middle 80s across the area.

AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/

Main potential impacts this TAF period are lake effect clouds and rain showers across parts of Northeast OH and Northwest PA, and slightly elevated west-northwest winds increasing to 10-15kt with some 20-25kt gusts late this morning and this afternoon. Main impacts from the lake effect will be at ERI, where occasional and mainly short-lived vsby restrictions are possible with any showers that impact the field. Shower activity may focus a bit south and east for the most part. Some showers may impact CLE, primarily early this morning, though for the most part CLE will be dry. A broken cloud deck below 5000 feet will likely develop across Northeast OH and Northwest PA for several hours this afternoon before scattering out or lifting this evening. Western terminals should remain VFR throughout.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible at times in lake effect rain and/or low ceilings in far NE OH and NW PA into Tuesday. Non-VFR may return in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday.

MARINE

Rough marine conditions will continue across much of Lake Erie through Monday with elevated west to northwest winds of 15 to 25 knots resulting in waves of 3 to 6 feet. Marine conditions will gradually improve Monday night into Tuesday as winds subside to 10 knots or less. Winds will shift towards the south to southwest on Wednesday, increasing into the 10 to 15 knot range by Thursday.

A few stronger wind gusts in excess of 34 knots are likely across the central and eastern basin of Lake Erie through this evening, associated with showers and thunderstorms. There is also a risk for waterspouts into Tuesday morning.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for OHZ009-010. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for OHZ011-012- 089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ144- 145. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LEZ146>149.