textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes made to the forecast with this morning update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dreary Wednesday in store for the area as widespread rain showers move northeast across the area. No thunder expected, but localized heavy rainfall across southeastern counties possible.

2) Below average temperatures arrive today and stick around through the weekend. Low confidence lake enhanced rain showers possible and the potential for frost/freeze returns.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Tonight, a cold front has pushed east of the area, stalling just west of the Appalachians. This boundary is providing a path for a low developing over the Tennessee Valley which is expected to track northeast towards New England today. Given the placement of this low, the entire CWA is expected to remain on the cold side of the low, ultimately limiting any instability potential today for thunderstorms to occur. Cannot rule out a few rumbles across the southeastern tier of counties, but confidence is too low to include in the forecast at this point. However, a potent shortwave pushing east will enhance synoptic support for widespread rain showers to occur across the CWA beginning this morning and lingering for much of today. The axis of highest rainfall totals will be across the southeastern tier of counties where up to 1" of rainfall is possible. Not expecting any flooding concerns at this point, but will monitor conditions as the day progresses. These showers should taper from west to east this evening into the early overnight hours as the aforementioned low and upper level support drift east.

KEY MESSAGE 2... On Thursday and Friday, a surface trough will linger over the area, allowing for a much cooler Canadian airmass to begin to usher in across the area. This will ultimately lead to much cooler, below average temperatures through Friday with highs in the low to mid 50s and overnight lows dropping into the 30s. As this colder airmass pushes south over warming lakes, there is a potential for enough lake induced instability to develop to result in isolated light rain showers across the area. Confidence remains low at this point, especially in the location of any of these showers. Unfortunately, with this set-up, much of Thursday and Friday will be at least partly cloudy, lending to some cold and dreary days. On Saturday, a high pressure system will begin to build southeast across the area allowing for any shower potential to diminish and some clearing in sky coverage. Temperatures however will remain below normal on Saturday, slightly warming on Sunday into the upper 50s to low 60s. Sunday will mark the transition towards gradual warming once again towards normal. With the overnight lows expected to dip into the low to mid 30s, will have to continue to monitor for the potential of frost/freeze, especially on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday nights.

AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

Ceilings lowering as rain overspreads the region from the southwest. Expect conditions to continue to deteriorate in rain through the afternoon hours with IFR eventually expected in low ceilings, and to a lesser extent, visibilities in rain. IFR to linger or return to the terminals as another trough axis moves into the southern Great Lakes tonight. Western terminals could recover to VFR briefly this evening before going back to to MVFR/IFR ceilings tonight, while terminals further east likely to not get out of the IFR ceilings that materialize from the showers/rain moving in. Winds northeasterly 10-15kts becoming northwesterly 10kts tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and low ceilings Friday morning.

MARINE

Will be in a continued/prolonged offshore flow regime for Lake Erie through the weekend. Northwesterly winds today 10- 20kts bring wave heights 2-4ft today and tonight, easing to 10-15kts Thursday through early Saturday and wave heights 1-3ft. Saturday, winds become westerly 10-15kts and wave heights 1-2ft in the western and central basins and 1-3ft in the eastern basin.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.