textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes. Added patchy fog to the forecast for parts of the area Thursday night into early Friday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Tranquil and pleasant conditions through the end of the week.

2) Chances for showers and thunderstorms return this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure slides across the Ohio Valley through Friday as upper troughing gradually departs to the Northeast. Dry and slightly cooler than average conditions will continue through the end of the week. Patchy fog is possible in typical locations Thursday night into early Friday with radiational cooling.

KEY MESSAGE 2... An upper level trough and associated weak surface low will dive through the western Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley this weekend, bringing a return to increased humidity and unsettled weather to the region. Potential for showers and thunder ramps up slowly from west to east Friday night and Saturday, with dry east winds fighting the potential for rain from eastern OH into PA through a good portion of Saturday. There is disagreement among the models and ensemble members regarding the finer details that will determine the eventual timing, coverage, and amount of rain across the area, though the general consensus is that rain chances will maximize late Saturday into early Sunday. A gradual drying trend is then favored from northwest to southeast Sunday into Sunday night. We are not looking at a multi-day washout this weekend, more like a 1-2 day period with occasional shower and storm chances but also intermittent drier periods. Precipitable water values climb to 1.75-2.00" late Saturday into Sunday, so efficient rain-rates and locally heavy rainfall may become concerns. However, the general setup appears unfavorable for severe thunderstorms with only modest amounts of instability and wind shear expected.

High pressure pressing in from the north should lead to a general drying trend for Monday and Tuesday. There is some disagreement regarding if enough warmth/humidity will persist for lower chances of pop-up showers/storms Monday or Tuesday afternoon...mainly farther south across the area. A somewhat more active pattern may return for the second half of next week. Temperatures will generally be near to a bit warmer than normal this weekend into early next week.

AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

Widespread VFR conditions are expected to continue for this TAF Update. Scattered to broken ceilings around 3500 to 5000 feet will be around this afternoon giving way to mostly clear skies tonight into Thursday morning. Winds will be gusty from the north this afternoon 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots. Winds will relax this evening and overnight from the north around 5 to 7 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions in scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

MARINE

Winds will remain elevated from the north 15-20 knots through tonight. Wave heights in the central and eastern basins of 4-7 feet will continue into this evening. Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazard Statement remain in effect through late tonight. Conditions will be hazardous for small craft in addition to the high risk of rip currents. Swimming is discouraged! High pressure will build in Thursday and Friday. On Thursday, winds will be from the northwest 5 to 15 knots on Thursday and waves 1 to 3 feet. By Friday, winds will be from the southwest 5 to 10 knots and waves 1 to 2 feet. Winds turn easterly by Saturday and Sunday as low pressure passes south of Lake Erie.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for OHZ009>012- 089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ144>148. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ149.