textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rain chances have increased a bit for Saturday, but otherwise the forecast largely remains on track and no major changes were needed with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely on Saturday and possibly on Sunday. There is limited potential for severe weather each day.

2) Warm weather is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday with additional shower and storm chances possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A warm front will lift into the region on Saturday, allowing showers to spread east into the region throughout the day. There may be just enough destabilization for some embedded thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening, although widespread cloud cover and rain may prevent destabilization that would be sufficient for stronger storms. As of now, the best instability will be to the east and southeast of the area, although a few stronger storms can't be ruled out, especially if shower/cloud coverage ends up being lower than expected in eastern zones during peak diurnal instability Saturday afternoon. There will likely be a break in showers/storms Saturday night before scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms potentially develop as a cold front moves southeast across the area at some point on Sunday. There will definitely be better forcing/shear on Sunday afternoon which may support some organized showers/storms, although there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in cloud cover, moisture, instability, and the exact timing of the cold front. SPC has placed locations generally east of I-75 in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Dry weather will return to the region for Monday, however unsettled weather with periods of showers and storms will return to the region Tuesday night through late week as a series of disturbances move across the area. A warm and humid air mass with daytime temperatures in the 80s and dew points in the 60s and lower 70s will be in place over the region, which may allow for the potential for stronger storms and maybe heavy rainfall. That said, it's still a bit too far out to have high confidence in the timing/placement of storms and any associated hazards.

AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/

VFR will prevail the rest of today and through tonight as high pressure slowly drifts east of the region ahead of an approaching warm front. Clouds will gradually increase and lower tonight, with showers and MVFR eventually overspreading most terminals after sunrise Saturday from south to north. Most rain should stay south of KTOL, KFDY, and KERI, so limited those sites to VSCH, but it will be close. Gradual improvement is expected Saturday afternoon, but widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible after the TAF period in the afternoon.

Light NE winds this afternoon will turn SE tonight and eventually S to SW behind the warm front Saturday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers/storms Saturday afternoon and evening. Non-VFR possible again in scattered showers and storms on Tuesday.

MARINE

East winds 5 to 10 knots this afternoon and evening will shift to the southeast ahead of a warm front early Saturday morning. Flow will then become more southwesterly behind the warm front by Saturday afternoon with winds in the open waters potentially increasing to 10 to 15 knots late Saturday night. North/northwest winds will develop behind a cold front Sunday evening with winds likely increasing to 15 to 20 knots for a period late Sunday evening through early Monday. Based on current wind/wave forecast, Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements will likely be needed for portions of the lake during this time. Winds will diminish throughout the day Monday with southeast winds expected by Monday evening. Offshore flow is expected on Tuesday, though winds will likely remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Winds may become more variable by Wednesday, but they should remain relatively light.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.