textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the previous forecast. A more prolonged period of above average temperatures will return this weekend and into next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Primarily light snow showers will persist across portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through this evening with minimal impacts expected.

2) A more prolonged period of above average temperatures will return this weekend and continue into next week

KEY MESSAGE 2

Above average temperatures are poised to return on Saturday as a large upper-level ridge begins to take shape across much of the Central and Eastern CONUS. The latest guidance suggests that this ridge should persist through mid-week while a more dominant trough gradually moves east across the Western CONUS. A brief period of widespread rain is likely on Wednesday associated with a lifting warm front, particularly across the far north and northeast portion of the area. At this point, total rainfall amounts appear on the lighter side, with only about a 20 to 40% chance of more than a quarter of an inch.

In terms of temperatures, highs in the low to mid-40s for the weekend will increase further into the upper 40s to lower 50s into mid-next week. Minimal or generally light precipitation is expected through Wednesday which does bode well for a gradual thawing of ice on area rivers and a melting snowpack.

AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/

MVFR to VFR ceilings are expected with this 18z TAF update. MVFR ceilings this afternoon will give way to VFR conditions this evening and overnight through Friday morning. ERI might be the one exception with holding on to MVFR ceilings into Friday morning. There will be some scattered light lake effect snow showers through mid afternoon for ERI with 5sm light snow at times. Otherwise, there are not other aviation impact concerns at this time time. Winds will start out from the northwest 5 to 12 knots becoming light and variable tonight. Winds will become southerly in nature by Friday morning around 5 to 7 knots.

Outlook...Mostly VFR is expected.

MARINE

Lake Erie remains mostly ice-covered at this time. Warm weather in the forecast will likely cause some slow deterioration of the ice later this weekend into next week. Winds will remain light 10 knots or less through Friday while gradually backing to a more southwesterly direction. Southwest winds will briefly increase to 10-20kt Friday night. Mainly light winds expected this weekend into early next week.

Some ice movement to the northeast is possible Friday night, though it is not as confident if the brief period of elevated southwest winds will be enough to push ice fastened to the shoreline out into the lake (i.e. ice floes). Still, something to keep in mind. Slow deterioration of the ice is likely Sunday into next next week due to a period of milder than average temperatures. Winds will be light and limited precipitation through at least Tuesday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.