textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and thunderstorms, some strong to severe, will continue to move east and exit the area by around 7 PM. Damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph are the greatest concern.

2) A stronger low pressure system will develop and move east through the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. Some stronger storms and gusty winds are possible.

3) A compact system will move east through the Central Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms into the area.

KEY MESSAGE 3

A compact shortwave will move east through the Central Great Lakes late Tuesday into Wednesday, resulting in showers and thunderstorms moving east into the area Tuesday evening and overnight. At this time, the greatest risk for any stronger storms appears to be just west of the I-75 corridor, with wind gusts being the primary concern, though will continue to monitor trends for any impacts to our area.

AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/

At the surface, a high pressure ridge builds from the northern Great Plains and vicinity through 00Z/Tues. NW'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots will back gradually toward SW'erly through the TAF period. At 23Z/Sun, widespread light to moderate rain, accompanied by primarily MVFR ceilings and VFR visibility and associated with the upper-reaches of a departing cold front, was impacting many locations east of roughly I-71. This widespread rain and associated mainly MVFR ceilings should exit the rest of our region generally from west to east by ~01Z/Mon.

Once the widespread rain exits our region, primarily dry weather and VFR are expected through 00Z/Tues. However, scattered to broken lake-effect stratocumuli with bases near 2.5kft to 4kft AGL are expected to stream generally SE'ward from Lake Erie this evening through about mid-morning on Mon. These stratocumuli should produce periodic and light to occasionally moderate rain showers this evening into Monday. The lake-effect showers should end generally from west to east between ~10Z and ~14Z/Mon due, in part to drier air that will eventually overspread our region from the northwest. These showers should be accompanied by VFR to MVFR visibility.

Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are forecast Tuesday afternoon through this Friday.

MARINE

A cold front continues to sweep SE'ward across Lake Erie through this late afternoon. Behind the front, another high pressure ridge builds from the northern Great Plains through Monday. Primarily SW'erly winds around 10 to 15 knots ahead of the cold front veer to NW'erly behind the front. These NW'erly winds may flirt with 20 knots at times through the first couple of predawn hours of Monday morning. The NW'erly winds then ease slightly to around 10 to 15 knots and back gradually to SW'erly later Monday morning through sunset Monday evening as the high pressure ridge axis moves E'ward across Lake Erie. Waves of mainly 3 feet or less are expected, but occasional 4 footers are possible behind the cold front through the first few predawn hours of Monday morning. Refrained from issuing a Small Craft Advisory since forecast conditions are marginal.

S'erly to SW'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots and waves of 3 feet or less are expected Monday night through Wednesday as the aforementioned ridge exits E'ward. However, these winds may flirt with 20 knots at times Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Thus, waves up to 4 to 5 feet are possible at times in open U.S. waters Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. During Wednesday night through Thursday, a potent low should wobble ENE'ward from the Upper MS Valley to southern QC. In response, a warm front should sweep NE'ward across Lake Erie Wednesday night and be accompanied by SSE'erly to SW'erly winds freshening to around 20 to 30 knots. These winds may flirt with 35 knots at times. Waves should build to as large as 5 to 10 feet with occasional 12 footers. The projected low track should allow a cold front to sweep E'ward across Lake Erie on Thursday. The cold front passage should cause winds around 20 to 30 knots, perhaps flirting with 35 knots at times, to veer to W'erly. Waves as large as 5 to 10 feet with occasional 12 footers are forecast. Based on latest official forecast trends, confidence remains high in the eventual need for a Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement. Will continue to monitor official forecast trends for a potential gale and the possible eventual need for a Low Water Advisory.

Behind the cold front, a high pressure ridge should build slowly from the north-central United States and vicinity through Friday. Accordingly, W'erly to NW'erly winds should ease gradually to around 10 to 15 knots and waves should subside to 3 feet or less by daybreak Friday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.