textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A period of freezing drizzle is possible across portions of NW PA and possibly NE OH tonight so have adjusted the forecast to introduce freezing drizzle potential. Generally expect minimal to minor impacts.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A brief period of freezing drizzle is possible tonight before lake effect snow showers develop across portions of the snowbelt region of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania late tonight through early Thursday.

2) Temperatures will trend towards and possibly slight above normal values late week through the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2

High pressure will return to the area by the end of the week and guidance is trending drier for the weekend (although there's still at least a small chance of scattered rain/snow showers on Sunday). Despite the change in the rainfall forecast, a warming trend is expected Friday through early next week with near normal temperatures anticipated Friday and above normal high temperatures expected over the weekend and into early next week.

The gradually warming temperatures will result in a relatively gradual thaw/melt in snowpack and river ice. While minor ice jam issues cannot be ruled out over the weekend and especially next week, the thaw should be gradual enough to preclude a significant ice jam flooding risk. Heavy rainfall is not expected through early next week so the relatively dry weather will help mitigate hydro issues.

AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

MVFR ceilings have started to spread over over the region late this evening with heights around 2 to 3kft and will persist through the TAF period. As the front passes, some lake enhanced snow showers are possible early Wednesday morning across NE OH and NW PA that could drop visibility down to MVFR.

Winds will be out of the west to northwest through the TAF period with periods of gusts during the day Wednesday. Through the morning hours, winds will be around 10 knots then start gusting around 15Z up to 20-25 knots. Gusts will continue through much of the day before subsiding late in the evening near the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in low ceilings Wednesday night through Thursday. Non-VFR may return in scattered rain and/or snow showers on Sunday.

MARINE

Lake Erie remains mostly ice-covered, though recent satellite imagery depicts several large cracks beginning to develop across the central basin. Winds will shift towards the west to northwest behind a cold front tonight, 18 to 22 knots, which could contribute to additional shifting of ice across Lake Erie. Quieter marine conditions are expected beginning Thursday and should persist through the weekend with offshore winds of generally 10 to 15 knots.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.