textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures and dry weather, aside from isolated rain showers Thursday night, will continue through Saturday.

2) Rain chances return Sunday and into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure displaced just to our north will gradually drift eastward toward the east coast on Wednesday and Thursday. Southerly flow on the backside of the departing high will bring well above normal temperatures (highs in the 70s, lows in 40s/50s), potentially challenging record high temperatures on Thursday (see climate section below).

A low pressure system located well to the north near the Georgian Bay will bring a cold front across the area Thursday night. Moisture will be severely lacking and weak forcing will limit rain potential, with only isolated rain showers expected Thursday night. Rain chances are bit higher (40-50%) in Erie, PA where Lake Erie may provide a bit more low-level moisture/convergence.

High pressure builds back in Friday and Saturday, and ushering "cooler" but still above normal temperatures with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s/50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... As high pressure departs to the east, broad isentropic lift brings rain chances back Sunday and into early next week. Ensemble QPF mean calls for around 0.25" with very low probabilities of an isolated 1", which means this rain won't be very impactful. However, long-range ensemble guidance is hinting at a potential pattern shift with rain chances continuing next week.

AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

High pressure to the northeast will allow for VFR conditions to continue. Some high clouds will continue through the region this morning but will quickly fade today. East flow will be favored overnight given the high pressure position. Winds will shift to the south and southwest later today with the system moving southeast through New England. With highs expected in the 70s next to a 60 degree Lake Erie and a weak pressure gradient over the region, a modified lake breeze may develop for KERI and KCLE this afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR will be possible on Sunday with rain showers.

MARINE

Northeast to east winds 10-15 knots will continue today with wave heights 1-3 ft decreasing to 1 ft by tonight. High pressure returns Wednesday as winds become light and variable. Southerly to southwesterly winds increase to 10-15 knots Wednesday night into Thursday before become northwest and northerly Thursday night following a cold frontal passage. There may be a brief period of 2-4 waves Thursday morning, especially in the central basin. Otherwise, high pressure brings light and variable winds on Friday, becoming easterly by Saturday.

CLIMATE

We are forecast to be within a few degrees of record warmth on Thursday. Here are the record high temperatures for our six climate sites on October 29th:

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 10-29 79(2024) 79(1922) 78(2024) 77(1900) 77(2024) 77(2024)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.