textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast as it remains on track.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry conditions with seasonable to above average temperatures expected to continue through Saturday.

2) Unsettled weather returns late this weekend and continues into next week with widespread rainfall expected on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Mainly dry conditions are expected to continue through the remainder of the week and beginning of the weekend. A cold front will glide east across the forecast area overnight tonight. Most of the forecast area will remain dry with the frontal passage outside of low-end PoPs in lake enhanced rain showers across Northwest Pennsylvania tonight. Another area of high pressure builds overhead behind the cold front leading to prolonged dry conditions through late Saturday. High temperatures Thursday and Friday will be cooler in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A warm front will lift across the Upper Ohio Valley on Saturday leading to high temperatures in mid 70s to low 80s. Lows will generally fall into the low 50s tonight and Saturday night. Chillier on Friday night with lows in the mid 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Unsettled weather returns Sunday and continues into the middle of next week. Tropical Storm Isaias currently located in the southwestern Gulf is expected to make landfall as a hurricane later this week along the northern Gulf coast. The remmants of Isaias will move northward into the Tennessee and Ohio Valley and bring widespread rainfall to the region on Sunday. Current forecast is dry for Monday before an upper trough digs eastward across the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday bringing renewed rain chances.

AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/

Widespread VFR conditions are expected to persist through this TAF period as a weak cold front moves east tonight. No precipitation is anticipated from this front but winds will be gusty from the southwest ahead of it with gusts at all terminals of 20-25 knots expected through at least 00Z. Overnight winds will slowly back to become west-northwesterly around 10 knots which will persist through the end of the period. Some gusts up to 20 knots are possible Thursday afternoon, but will likely occur after this period.

Outlook...Non-VFR is possible with rain showers on Sunday.

MARINE

Opted to extend the timing of the Small Craft Advisory as northwesterly winds and waves will remain elevated behind the passage of a cold front this evening. Wave heights are expected to build to 3-6 feet at times in the far central and eastern basins as northwest winds briefly increase to 15-20 knots. Winds remain onshore at 10-15 knots through Friday afternoon before turning offshore Friday night and diminishing to 8-12 knots. Winds turn westerly to southwesterly Monday into mid- week with the next best chance for marine headlines Monday night into Tuesday as a low pressure system tracks across the Great Lakes region.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ144- 145. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for LEZ146>149.