textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast remains on track with widespread precipitation tonight and scattered showers through Thursday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather expected starting tonight through Thursday afternoon with periodic showers and thunderstorms.

2) Temperatures begin warming Friday into early next week with above average temperatures likely.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Low pressure enters the Great Lakes region this evening with the associated warm front moving north through area tonight. Precipitation will begin out west before midnight and progressing eastward throughout the night ahead of the cold front. The cold front will move through the region early Wednesday morning and exit by the afternoon. There may be some thunderstorms initially when the showers begin out west, though most of the instability will be minimal overnight so expecting little thunder if any over night. Generally expecting a quarter inch of QPF overnight with the rain showers. Behind the cold front, precipitation across the western portion of the CWA will end and there will be a short lull in precipitation out east. Additionally moisture will return to the region late Wednesday evening as flow shift to be more north- northwesterly across the region. This will help support the development of periodic lake enhanced showers across eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania through Thursday afternoon. Though, given the lake is still on the cooler side compared to the air temperature, there will be minimal lake induced instability impacting the overall extent of the lake enhanced showers. Warmer upper air temperatures begin to move into the region Thursday and showers should begin to end by the evening timeframe. Overall, an additional tenth or two of precipitation is possible across the primary and secondary snowbelts through Thursday evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Behind the exiting trough, upper level ridging will begin to build into the region early Friday and the area will see a warming trend in the temperatures through early next week. The region will be in a west to southwesterly flow starting Friday afternoon and temperatures will gradually increase each day through Monday. Highs on Friday will be 10-15 degrees warmer than on Thursday into the upper 60s to low 70s. Through the weekend, highs will climb into the upper 70s to low 80s with the warmest day being Monday as highs will be in the mid 80s. Overnight lows will be slightly above average as well, dropping down into the mid 50s through the weekend. Given it's almost a week out, there are some disagreements in some models as to how warm Sunday and Monday will get, so some adjustments in the temperatures may be needed as we get closer.

AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

The steadiest rain is trending a little faster early this morning, with the bulk expected to end from west to east by 12Z. Since most of the rain is light, expect VFR cigs and vis to prevail, but continued the use of TEMPO groups for brief periods of MVFR. A lull is expected much of the day with mostly VFR before a secondary trough rotating across Lake Erie this evening brings lake enhanced rain showers. This will mainly affect KCLE, KMFD, KCAK, KYNG, and KERI after 22Z, and longer periods of MVFR and occasional IFR is expected with this activity.

S to SW winds of 10-15 knots will occasionally gust to 20-25 knots this morning before turning WNW at 15-25 knots by late morning through the afternoon behind a cold front.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with lingering rain and low ceilings Wednesday night through Thursday. Non-VFR may return in isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.

MARINE

Hazardous conditions will be found across Lake Erie through Thursday as an unseasonably deep mid/upper trough swings across the Great Lakes region. SW winds of 15-25 knots this morning will turn WNW at 15-25 knots this afternoon. After a lull tonight with NW winds dropping to 10-15 knots, NW winds will increase to 15-25 knots again Thursday morning before decreasing in the afternoon. This will support 3 to 5 foot waves today and again early Thursday, with the highest waves in the central and eastern basins.

Quieter conditions are then expected Thursday night through the weekend, with light and variable winds Thursday night becoming S at 5-15 knots Friday and SW at 10-15 knots by Saturday. Winds will then turn E to SE and decrease to 5-10 knots Saturday night and Sunday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for LEZ142>145. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to noon EDT Thursday for LEZ146>149.