textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Flood Watch has been canceled as the risk for flash flooding has ended for the area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected Tuesday afternoon.

2) The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Thursday into Friday as a cold front moves across the area. Heavy rain is possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Conditions are expected to slowly improve overnight into Tuesday as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes region. Still could see some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms near the OH/PA border Tuesday afternoon and evening, though the overall flooding threat should be lower.

KEY MESSAGE 2... After brief high pressure builds across the region late Tuesday into Wednesday, attention then turns towards the next low pressure system and cold front Thursday into Friday. Confidence continues to increase for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop Thursday night into Friday afternoon, though recent guidance has suggested a more delayed timing for the cold front which would also point to a lower risk of stronger storms. Depending on the progression of the cold front, could see additional showers and thunderstorms develop Friday afternoon and evening across the southern portion of our area. Will also need to monitor the heavy rain potential with this system as another favorable environment develops towards the end of the week, characterized by PWATs returning to near 1.80 inches.0

AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/

Precipitation has largely exited the area as of 00Z, leaving behind a variable cloud cover and ceiling conditions. Ceilings are mostly VFR with a few pockets of MVFR. Ceilings should tend to deteriorate tonight, especially across the middle portion of our forecast area, where an area of IFR/LIFR ceilings are expected to occur, along with some patchy fog or BR. Conditions will improve back to VFR by Tuesday afternoon.

Light and variable winds tonight become 5 to 9 knots out of the north tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR with occasional showers and thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon.

MARINE

A very slow moving meso-low currently centered over northern Ohio has maintained a northeasterly flow across Lake Erie this afternoon. Winds of 15-20 knots have resulted in waves of 1-4 feet across the western and central basins. Given this continued flow and increased risk of rip currents, a Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement remain in effect through 10 PM EDT.

As the center of this aforementioned low gradually moves east Tuesday, winds will gradually gain a more northerly component and be sustained at 5-10 knots. This will keep nearshore wave heights across the central basin 1-3 feet on Tuesday. Winds on Tuesday night will become light and variable as a high pressure system builds east and persists through Thursday night. On Friday, another cold front is expected to sag south across the lake, allowing for southwest winds to gradually become northwesterly Friday afternoon. This may allow waves to build to around 2 feet, but no marine headlines are anticipated at this time. High pressure returns this weekend.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003-007-009>011. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>146.