textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Slightly decreased storm total rainfall amounts across portions of central Ohio.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lingering scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening.

2) Widespread rainfall expected Sunday night through Monday which may result in rises on area rivers.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Scattered showers with a few isolated thunderstorms are developing and will remain possible through the remainder of this afternoon and early evening as a shortwave aloft pushes through the region. Highest coverage for showers and storms will occur along and east of the I-71 corridor where the best instability, albeit fairly weak at 400-700 J/kg, exists. Locally stronger but sub- severe thunderstorms may be capable of producing isolated wind gusts of 30-40 mph and small hail.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Widespread rainfall will overspread the Ohio Valley Sunday night through Monday as a shortwave aloft moves across the region. At the surface, the center of the low pressure is expected to track due east across northern Ohio on Monday. This system will be moisture rich as PWAT values will range between 1.25-1.75 inches, which are above the 90th percentile for mid/late June. Overall QPF amounts continue to decrease slightly with current storm total rainfall amounts ranging between 0.75-1.25 inches. Slightly higher amounts of 1.25-1.50 inches are possible near the I-75 corridor and along the lakeshore. Some embedded thunderstorms will be possible Monday morning, though the best instability remains south of the forecast area. Localized flooding may be possible in any convection and/or showers/storms that train over the same area. The majority of the forecast area remains in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall with a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) for the western third of the forecast area.

AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/

A shortwave aloft and surface cold front will move across the area through early this evening. This will shift southwest winds more westerly, and focus scattered showers and a few storms across southeastern portions of the area, possibly affecting YNG and CAK. Storms can produce brief IFR or lower vsby and isolated gusty winds (up to 40kt) and small hail. This activity will sweep off to the east this evening, leaving dry and VFR conditions from the remainder of the TAFs. Southwest to west winds this afternoon of 10-15kt with gusts up to 25kt are ongoing, becoming light (<7kt) tonight into Sunday.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely Sunday night into Monday with rain.

MARINE

A cold front is sweeping across the lake through this evening, shifting winds to a west-northwest direction...generally 10-15kt in the Ohio waters and 10kt or less to the east. These winds may briefly perk up to 15 to nearly 20kt late this afternoon into this evening in parts of the western and central basin before shifting more northwesterly and gradually diminishing overnight tonight into early Sunday. Waves of 1 to 3 feet will generally handle things through tonight, with the greatest chance for some 3 footers in the central basin this evening. Winds gradually flip around to the south on Sunday, to the east-northeast Sunday night, and more northeast to north on Sunday as weak low pressure tracks through the northern Ohio Valley. Winds will become elevated 15-25kt Sunday night into Monday, and with the E to N direction we'll likely need Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements for a number of our nearshore/coastal zones. Calmer conditions return by Tuesday behind this system.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.