textproduct: Cleveland

SYNOPSIS

Cold and windy conditions continue this afternoon and evening, with a brief warmup Saturday. A pair of weak cold fronts move through Saturday night into Sunday morning, with chillier conditions again Sunday. Milder temperatures are expected through next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

A surface/850 mb trough will pass through the southern Great Lakes this afternoon and evening, with associated bands of moderate snow pushing east across the forecast area. A robust lake effect band along the northeast OH/northwest PA lakeshore will intensify and move inland in the wake of this trough, bringing three to five inches of snow to higher elevations of Erie County in PA. Locally higher amounts up to six or seven inches are possible in inland Erie Co. Elsewhere across the snowbelt, a general 1 to 3 inches of snow is possible. Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible along the lakeshore through this evening, which will result in areas of blowing snow in the lake effect band. Winds will gust to 30 mph elsewhere across the remainder of the forecast area, but will diminish this evening with near shore winds subsiding overnight. Wind chills today will remain in the single digits. Low level warm air advection moves in after 03Z Saturday, ending the lake effect event around 06Z, and pushing temperatures back above freezing for the day on Saturday. Dry and breezy conditions area expected through the day Saturday as well, with no advisories expected at this time.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

A couplet of weak/dry cold fronts will move through the region on Sunday with no significant weather expected. The first passes through prior to sunrise, and the second by late morning, which will result in a steady drop in temperatures through the morning. Temperatures eventually level out in the mid to upper 20s area-wide, but will rebound back above freezing again on Monday as high pressure moves eastward across the southern Great Lakes and into the Mid Atlantic. There is potential for overrunning rain overnight Monday as a surface trough/warm front begins to lift north out of the Tennessee Valley into the Ohio Valley. Eastern counties may see a brief period of snow overnight Monday before changing entirely to rain by Tuesday morning.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

High pressure will remain in place across the eastern seaboard on Tuesday, with warm southerly flow bringing mild conditions to the region. This ridge will break down a bit on Wednesday as this system exits the New England coast, allowing for a period of overrunning precipitation associated with a warm front lifting across the area. Periods of rain are possible through Friday, though precipitation amounts will be fairly minor as these systems remain transitory. Expectations of a White Christmas are sure to be dashed, as unseasonably warm temperatures in the mid to upper 50s are possible with the warm front lifting north across the Great Lakes. Temperatures the remainder of the week will stabilize back to the mid-upper 40s.

AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/

A band of moderate to heavy snow showers will continue to reduce visibilities along the lakeshore between Cleveland and Erie over the next few hours. KERI will see the greatest impacts with this band where visibilites may occasionally fall to LIFR through 02Z/Sat. Drier air and a ridge of high pressure will build across terminals from the southwest overnight tonight allowing for MVFR ceilings to lift to VFR around 08Z/Sat. Anticipate for widespread VFR conditions across all terminals Saturday morning through the end of the TAF window.

Strong westerly winds and gusts 25-30 knots will diminish after 02Z/Sat with winds turning southerly tonight. Locally higher gusts 35-40 knots will remain possible at KERI through ~04Z/Sat. Southerly winds 8-12 knots overnight will increase to 10-15 knots sustained with gusts 20-28 knots around 15Z/Sat and remain elevated through Saturday afternoon. Winds will gradually turn southwesterly after 20Z/Sat but remain elevated through the TAF window.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in low ceilings behind a cold front on Sunday. Non-VFR possible in rain and/or snow showers on Tuesday.

MARINE

Gale Warnings remain in effect through this evening before winds start to decrease as high pressure expands north across Ohio. Small Craft Advisories will be needed east of Cleveland once the Gale Warning expires through the remainder of the night. Low water conditions continue on the western basin and the Low Water Advisory has been extended until 10 PM. The lowest water level has likely been achieved and expect water levels to rise above the critical mark through the evening.

A very brief break in windy conditions can be expected late tonight into Saturday morning as southerly winds increase to 20-30 knots by Saturday afternoon. Small Craft Advisories will be needed again as southwesterly winds veer to westerly Saturday night and northwesterly on Sunday. Conditions will be close to Gale Force and a Gale Watch has been issued towards New York from 4 PM Saturday to 10 AM Sunday.

Conditions improve Monday with brisk winds Monday night into Tuesday. Conditions become more stable on the lake Wednesday and Thursday as temperatures trend above normal. Disruption to the ice on the western basin of Lake Erie is likely.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for OHZ011-012-089. PA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for PAZ001. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for PAZ001-002. MARINE...Low Water Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ142>144- 162>164. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ142- 143. Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ144>147- 164>167. Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for LEZ148-149-168-169.