textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes as the forecast remains on track.

KEY MESSAGES

1)Above average temperatures return this week.

2) A dry week is expected through Thursday before chances of showers and storms returns on Friday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A dominant ridging pattern has developed across much of the contiguous US which will allow for above average temperatures to return this week. Highs today will climb into the low to mid 80s before gradually rising into the low to mid 90s by Wednesday. Through midweek, dew point temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s, resulting in heat index values gradually in the mid to upper 90s by Wednesday. These temperatures will result in moderate heat risk with some areas of high risk through Wednesday. Overnight lows through that period will also linger in the upper 60s to low 70s, minimizing the overnight relief.

On Thursday, a weak boundary is forecast to push south across the area and allow winds to gain a more northerly component. When this occurs, overall temperatures will begin to cool into the weekend with decreasing dewpoints due to overall flow. On Thursday, the heat risk returns to moderate before falling to minor for this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Showers and storms are looking to return by Friday into the weekend as the aforementioned ridge looks to retrograde a bit and allow for an upper level trough to push south across New England to the Mid- Atlantic and portions of the eastern Great Lakes regions. This positioning may allow for enough moisture flow into the area for some diurnally driven convection to occur on Friday with more widespread precipitation possible on Saturday. There is very little agreement amongst models regarding this pattern shift, but it is worth noting that SPC has issued a Day 6 15% that extends from the Washington DC area west to the CWA border. Will have to continue to monitor the forecast trend throughout the week to fully get an idea of what the trough may do.

AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/

VFR conditions under high pressure will persist through the TAF period. Afternoon SCT fair weather cumulus across southeastern sites will diminish tonight. Northeast winds 8-12 knots with occasional gusts 18-20 knots will become light and variable tonight.

Outlook...VFR expected.

MARINE

Onshore flow 15-20 knots will build wave heights to 3 to 5 feet across the central basin this afternoon and evening. A Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement remain in effect from 2 PM to 9 PM tonight. There is a High Risk of rip currents and swimmers should remain out of the water.

High pressure drifts south across the region on Monday giving way to light offshore winds. As the high moves into the Ohio Valley winds turn southwesterly and increase to 10-15 knots by Tuesday. A cold front will sweep south across Lake Erie on Wednesday night turning winds northerly. Quiet marine conditions are expected during the first half of the week but wave heights may begin to build behind the cold front given onshore flow.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM EDT this evening for OHZ009>011. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for LEZ144>146.