textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The forecast remains on track with consistent cold temperatures and low-end snow chances continuing into the the weekend. Confidence in a temperature pattern shift next week continues to increase, although temperatures will remain below normal.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Very cold weather will persist through Sunday night with nightly air temperatures below zero and wind chills of 10 degrees below zero or colder expected. The air temperatures may approach record low values on Friday and Saturday mornings. The cold weather will continue to pose a significant risk of exposure to people and animals in addition to damage to infrastructure.

2) There are intermittent snow chances through Saturday night, primarily today and Friday night into Saturday. There may be some marginal travel impacts with any repetitive shower activity.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Arctic high pressure will influence the region through the weekend, allowing frigid temperatures to continue across the local area. High temperatures will be in the teens through Sunday with temperatures near/below zero anticipated each night. The coldest minimum temperatures which may approach low temperature records are anticipated tonight and Friday night (see Climate section at the bottom of this forecast discussion for record low temperatures for each climate site).

Subzero wind chills are still anticipated during the overnight/early morning hours through Sunday morning. Clouds may to struggle to clear out of the region tonight and winds will become light, which would prevent temperatures and apparent temperatures from reaching Cold Weather Advisory criteria (15 degrees below zero). However, there may be some pockets of efficient clearing late tonight which could allow temperatures to be colder than anticipated. If that happens, air temperatures may be several degrees colder than currently forecast. Confidence in the placement of any clearing is too low to warrant the issuance of a Cold Weather Advisory tonight at this point, but will continue to monitor satellite trends.

Confidence in cold weather headlines is higher for Friday night into Saturday morning and a Cold Weather Advisory will likely be needed for most of the area as temperatures fall into the -10 to -15 range and wind chills dip between -15 to -20 degrees. Wind chills may be only -5 to -10 degrees where cloud cover is higher across NE OH/NW PA so confidence in a Cold Weather Advisory is lower for that area. Wind chills in typical cold spots in southern zones may very briefly touch -25 degrees as winds increase a bit shortly before sunrise, although coverage appears to be somewhat isolated. With that being said, the current temperature/wind chill forecast assumes that there will be high clouds across the area, especially in NE OH/NW PA. If skies clear more than anticipated, temperatures may be several degrees colder which would increase the chance of needing Extreme Cold Warnings.

The prolonged period of temperatures of 20 degrees or colder will continue to produce possible impacts on infrastructure including frozen and burst pipes and dead car batteries. There will also be impacts on people and animals that do not take necessary cold weather precautions. Limit time outdoors, wear protective clothing to prevent frostbite and hypothermia, and be sure that animals spend limited time outdoors.

A (relatively) warmer pattern is anticipated early next week, although temperatures will remain below normal and well below freezing with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens likely.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Although Lake Erie is mostly ice covered, the cold air and moisture over the region will continue to take advantage of any open areas produced by cracks in the ice. Light lake effect snow showers will continue but wane through early this evening as the high builds into the region. A few CAMs are hinting at the potential for some light snow showers across NW OH tonight into early Friday, but opted for a dry forecast at the moment since the best moisture/lift appears to be to the northwest of the local area. Will continue to monitor high res guidance and radar trends through this evening and introduce PoPs if needed. Additional snow showers are possible in NE OH/NW PA with northerly flow Friday night into Saturday.

Although snow showers will generally produce light accumulations, any snow that is heavier than flurries will likely accumulate on roadways due to the prolonged period of cold weather and possibly reduce visibilities. This could result in minor travel impacts, including slippery travel.

AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/

A generally quiet weather pattern persists through the TAF period, with stratus in the high MVFR to low VFR range and perhaps a few light snow showers with brief MVFR vsby floating around. The snow is largely focused east-southeast of some cracks in the ice over central Lake Erie, affecting CLE and YNG. This lake effect snow is expected to diminish by this evening. Otherwise, a few flurries may affect Northwest OH tonight. Some guidance suggests that if we see clearing tonight that some fog with LIFR vsby may develop...confidence would be highest towards Northwest and Central OH (such as at TOL, FDY, MFD and CAK), but is still <30% across the board so was not included in the TAFs. Winds are WNW at 5-10kt this afternoon, will go more light and variable tonight, before shifting north at 3-7kt tomorrow.

Outlook...Mainly VFR expected through this weekend with the exception of diurnal low-end VFR or MVFR ceilings and transient light snow showers. A more widespread non-VFR threat may arrive on Monday in snow showers with a clipper.

MARINE

Generally quiet conditions will continue on Lake Erie through early next week as a strong arctic high builds overhead. Winds should remain below 20kt through the weekend. The arctic airmass and relatively light wind field across the region will allow ice on Lake Erie to further expand and thicken through the weekend.

CLIMATE

Record low temperatures are possible on Friday and Saturday. Here are the daily record low minimum temperatures for January 30 and 31:

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 01-30 -10(2019) -10(2019) -4(1873) -6(1965) -8(1965) -4(2019) 01-31 -10(2019) -7(2019) -5(1971) -5(1948) -9(1948) -6(1899)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.