textproduct: Cleveland

SYNOPSIS

Strong low pressure lifts north through the Great Lakes this morning while dragging a cold front across the area. A trough sets up over the Great Lakes behind the front this afternoon and will persist through the middle of the week. Another low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes Wednesday and will move a cold front across the local area. High pressure builds overhead Friday and lasts into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Active near term in store behind a strong low pressure system and strong cold front. Multiple hazards including plummeting temperatures, strong winds and gusts, the potential for snow squalls, and accumulating lake enhanced snow are possible through the near term.

Cold front will continue tracking east across the local area through daybreak this morning. Scattered rain showers ahead of the front will exit to the east over the next few hours. Behind the cold front, strong cold air advection will bring much cooler air to the region. Regional temperatures recorded in the 50s to 60s around midnight will continue to plummet into the 20s near daybreak today. Remaining chilly on Tuesday with highs in the 20s. There will likely be a brief lull in precipitation behind the passing cold front early this morning and before the strong surface trough moves into the Great Lakes.

Surface westerly winds and wind gusts will continue to quickly ramp up through the early morning hours today behind the cold front. Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings remain in effect across the entire forecast area through tonight as wind gusts reach between 50 and 60 MPH. Winds will decrease tonight but breezy conditions and northwesterly wind gusts 25-35 MPH are expected to linger through Tuesday.

The aforementioned surface trough will introduce a window of lake enhanced snow showers coming off both Lake Michigan and Lake Erie impacting the region into tonight. Strong winds will lead to blowing snow and the potential for snow squalls to develop. Latest HREF guidance hints at a window late this afternoon/early evening in the Snowbelt where snowfall rates may reach or exceed 1"/hour. Whiteout conditions and difficult travel are possible across the warning area, especially Monday evening when winds will still be gusting between 45 and 50 mph. There remains the potential for inland portions of Geauga/Ashtabula County to reach or exceed 6" of snow, though opted to maintain the Winter Weather Advisory as there is a high likelihood that total snow accumulations may be negatively impacted by strong winds and blowing snow.

Lake enhanced snow will transition to pure lake effect snow late tonight and persist through Tuesday. Current suite of Lake Effect Snow/Winter Weather Advisory headlines remain in effect through Tuesday afternoon. Flow backs southwesterly late Tuesday pushing lake effect into western NY allowing for a brief reprieve ahead of the next system.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

A clipper will move into the Great Lakes on Tuesday night into Wednesday while dragging a cold front across the local area. Accumulating lake effect snow returns with the cold front where portions of Northwest Pennsylvania could receive another 8-10 inches of snow through Thursday morning. Elsewhere, expect at least 0.5" to 1 inch of snowfall with the clipper. Highs in the upper 20s Wednesday fall to the upper teens to lower 20s by Thursday. Overnight lows in the tens Wednesday with wind chill values in the single digits Thursday morning. Coldest temperatures will be late Thursday night into Friday morning with the potential for wind chills in the low single digits to near zero.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Quieter through the long term period as areas of high pressure build into the region Friday through the weekend. Temperatures will gradually warm through the long term with highs in the mid 20s Friday increasing to near freezing by Monday.

AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/

Widespread MVFR conditions are seen across the region behind the cold front that is departing out to the east. A trough will be sweeping through the region today as the strong low pressure system to the north moves to the northeast. This will bring strong winds with snow across the area for the majority of the TAF period causing IFR conditions. Snow can be seen entering western Ohio this morning with generally IFR visibilities, though there are some pockets of heavier snowfall bringing visibility down to LIFR. This will continue across northern Ohio into Pennsylvania impacting all TAF sites. Currently only have a TEMPO group at KERI for LIFR visibilities, but it will be possible across the region in the heavier pockets of snow and snow squalls if they develop.

Snowfall should start to taper off for much of the region by this evening and conditions will start to improve to MVFR. Some locations in northwestern Ohio could even see VFR conditions by the the end of the period. Prolonged snowfall will be possible across the eastern half of TAF sites due to being down wind of the lake enhanced snow, but conditions should still improve slightly. KERI will see continued snowfall and IFR conditions through the TAF period.

Winds during the majority of the period will be out of the west and gusting up to 50 knots for sites along the lake shore and up to 45 knots elsewhere. By around 00Z, winds will begin to subside, though it will be a slow progression and should expect winds gusts of 30 knots and above through the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR ceilings and visibilities will continue into Monday night and Tuesday. Non-VFR conditions across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania in lake effect snow showers through at least Thursday.

MARINE

A strong cold front continues to quickly move eastward across the region this morning and should clear Lake Erie by daybreak. The accompanying low pressure system will move across the Great Lakes today and push off to the northeast into eastern Canada by this evening. Behind the front, winds have begun to increase out of the west with sustained winds 25-30 knots gusting upwards of 35 knots. Winds will continue to increase throughout the day peaking around midday at around 50 knots. The Gale Warning is in effect for the entirety of the lake through 8 AM this morning when the Storm Warning goes into effect for the central basin and 10 AM for the eastern basin. The western basin will continue to be under a Gale Warning as winds are not expected to reach storm criteria. Waves today will also build to 8 to 12 feet with occasional waves around 15 feet for the western basin and 15 to 20 feet with waves occasionally around 26 feet for the central and eastern basins. As a result of the strong, sustained westerly winds, water levels in the western basin will fall well below the critical mark for safe navigation today. Currently, the water levels are 1.5 inches above low water datum and are forecast to fall to around 4 feet below low water datum. Winds will continue to stay elevated through Tuesday and will need to additional marine headlines once the threshold for the Storm Warning is no longer met after this evening. Additionally, with the strong influx of cold air and elevated winds, freezing spray will be a concern across the central and eastern basins through Wednesday morning.

Gales will begin to subside from west to east during the day Tuesday as the low pressure system continues to depart northeastward. Elevated winds of at least 20 to 30 knots are expected to continue through Wednesday night across much of the central and eastern basins. Waves will begin to slowly subside as well through the week but will generally be 5 to 9 feet through Wednesday night. Afterwards, quieter marine conditions are expected with high pressure building into the region.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...High Wind Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for OHZ003- 006>009-017>019. High Wind Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for OHZ010>014-089. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EST Tuesday for OHZ011>014-021>023-089. Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for OHZ020>023-030>033- 038. Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for OHZ027>029-036- 037-047. PA...High Wind Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ001-002. Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ003. Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST Tuesday for PAZ001. Lake Effect Snow Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST Tuesday for PAZ002-003. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ142>144-162>164. Low Water Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ142>144- 162>164. Gale Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for LEZ145>147- 165>167. Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ145>147- 165>167. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ148-149-168- 169. Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM EST this evening for LEZ148-149-168-169.