textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this update. The next system to affect the area will be a cold front late this week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated to scattered showers and storms expected across southern and eastern portions of the area this afternoon.

2) The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Thursday into Friday as a cold front moves across the area. Heavy rain is possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... The broad/weak low that has brought active weather to the area since Sunday will continue to gradually exit to the east- southeast today, allowing for a much drier and somewhat sunnier forecast. Some patchy fog early this morning should quickly lift after sunrise. Otherwise, a few sprinkles or minor showers may impact portions of northern Ohio (mainly in the hills south of Lake Erie) this morning, with isolated to widely scattered showers and storms favored to develop this afternoon across interior eastern Ohio and into interior western Pennsylvania. Coverage will be much lower than recent days, and the atmosphere isn't quite as supportive of torrential rainfall. Storm motions will be slow so can't rule out some localized minor flooding if we do see a few storms develop, but overall the concern is much lower in both extent and magnitude than recent days.

Any shower/thunder activity should quickly exit to the southeast and/or dissipate with sunset this evening. There appears to be greater potential for radiational cooling and a humid airmass to team up to allow for some fog to develop tonight into early Wednesday morning. Wednesday should be a tranquil/dry day as a shortwave ridge axis slides across the region. Just a small chance for a very isolated afternoon shower across interior Northwest PA. Tranquil conditions continue Wednesday night, with perhaps a bit of fog again though likely more localized if any.

Highs today will generally reach the low to mid 80s, perhaps slightly warmer in Toledo. Highs will tick up a couple degrees or so for Wednesday, well into the 80s across the area. Overnight lows mainly in the 60s the next couple of nights, though locations along the lake (especially Cleveland) may struggle to dip below 70. While dew points won't be quite as tropical as the last number of days, it'll still be on the humid side with values generally in the mid-upper 60s today/Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A modest trough will dig into the Northeast to end the week, pushing a cold front across the local area on Friday. As the prior discussion mentioned, there has been a noticeable trend to slow down the front's passage a bit over the last few model cycles. Initial shower and storm chances return to the forecast Thursday afternoon as a warm, humid, and modestly unstable airmass returns to the region ahead of the approaching front. Large scale forcing on Thursday will be modest, though there are hints of a weak shortwave or vort max moving through the Upper Ohio Valley. Overall, confidence in some precip across the area Thursday afternoon is medium-high, though coverage may end up remaining on the isolated to scattered side given the lack of forcing. Greater potential is evident Thursday night as convection that develops closer to the approaching front spreads east-southeast into the area. With the humid airmass in place and warm lake, there is potential for convection to maintain itself overnight. With the front likely not crossing the area until Friday and not completely exiting to our south until Friday evening, expect at least some re-development of showers and storms on Friday. Coverage of activity on Friday has potential to be decent if the front continues to slow, especially across southern portions of the area.

Any severe weather threat Thursday into Friday appears fairly marginal, given warm mid-levels leading to marginal and skinny instability profiles. Flow aloft will be weak on Thursday, providing for very limited amounts of shear. Flow aloft does increase a bit on Friday, perhaps offering marginally more shear for a non-zero (but likely still lower-end) severe threat. The environment does become conducive to torrential rain rates within convection Thursday night into Friday, as precipitable water values climb to around 1.80" amid a warm atmosphere, with modest and generally westerly flow aloft supporting slower storm motions and perhaps a bit of training along/ahead of the sagging front. Will watch for at least localized potential for heavy rain and flash flooding yet again if we're able to see organized convection Thursday night or Friday.

AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/

The main message for aviation weather with this TAF update will be variable flight category conditions across the area through sunrise. Mainly VFR conditions are expected to continue this morning through the end of the TAF period at FDY and TOL. At CLE, MFD, CAK, YNG, and ERI, conditions will become lower end MVFR to IFR flight category through sunrise this morning. Conditions will improve after sunrise later this morning back to VFR ceilings by midday and continue through the rest of the TAF period. Winds will be light from the north or northeast 4 to 9 knots during this TAF time window.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with scattered thunderstorms Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon.

MARINE

A weak area of high pressure will build over Lake Erie today through Wednesday. The flow will be from the north to northeast today and tonight 5 to 15 knots with waves of 1 to 3 feet. The flow becomes a little weaker and variable by Wednesday less than 10 knots and waves less than 2 feet. Southwesterly flow 8 to 12 knots will return Thursday ahead of a cold front with waves 1 to 2 feet in the nearshore water. A push of northwesterly winds around 10 knots and waves up to 2 feet will follow the passage of the cold front on Friday. No marine headlines are anticipated through the end of this week.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.