textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Some lingering convection is ongoing across northeast Ohio as a cold front begins to push across the area this morning. The convection has significantly weakened and the environment has become less conducive to severe weather, allowing for the Severe Thunderstorm Watch to be canceled this morning. A few strong storms with gusty winds remain possible, but should remain isolated.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cooler and drier weather will move in today as the cold front departs east. Pleasant temperatures will persist into next week.

2) The next chance of widespread showers will be Sunday as a cold front pushes east, but an active weather pattern will result in additional precipitation and storm chances into next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... As a robust cold front pushes east across the area tonight, a cooler and drier airmass will begin to spread across the area allowing for Friday highs to be in the upper 70s to low 80s with dewpoints in the 50s to low 60s. In addition to cooler daytime highs, overnight lows will follow a similar trend with Friday night temperatures dropping into the upper 50s to low 60s. This will be a nice reprieve from the unseasonably hot temperatures over the last few days and are expected to persist into next week as a broad troughing pattern lingers over the Great Lakes region. Additional cooling will occur towards the end of the weekend into next week as another cold front pushes east on Sunday and highs drop into the 70s by Monday with overnight lows falling into the 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... On Friday, a surface ridge will nudge northeast into the area, allowing for showers and lingering storms to end from west to east into the afternoon. By Saturday, a very broad upper level trough will become established across the region with models suggesting it lingering into next week. Along this broad trough, multiple shortwaves are expected to move along the axis, providing periods of upper level support for showers and convection across northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. The first of these disturbance will push east on Sunday, moving an associated cold front east. Models diverge a bit on the exact timing of the frontal passage on Sunday which will likely be a determining factor in strength of any storms that do develop. Cannot rule out a few strong to severe storms, especially if they occur in the afternoon hours during more diurnally favorable timing. After Sunday, additional shortwaves may bring showers and storms to the area on Tuesday and again on Thursday. At this point, not expecting any widespread severe convection or flooding concerns.

AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/

A weakening line of thunderstorms is moving east across NW OH. Have already seen a weakening trend in thunderstorm activity and expect this trend to continue as storms encounter more stable air to the east of KTOL/KFDY. However, most terminals will likely see at least a brief period of showers (with a low-end thunder chance) early this morning with MVFR possible in reduced visibilities in light to moderate rainfall. Can't rule out some stronger wind gusts to around 30 knots in showers and lingering thunderstorms early in the TAF period. Behind the showers, there will be a swath of MVFR ceilings with a cold front for a few hours early Friday morning. Ceilings will rise to VFR by late morning and from there VFR will persist through the end of the TAF period.

Winds will be out of the south/southwest at 8 to 14 knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots through about 12Z this morning before becoming more westerly behind the cold front mid to late morning. Light and variable winds will develop after 00Z Saturday.

Outlook...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are possible Sunday and Tuesday.

MARINE

West winds to 15 to 25 knots are expected this morning and Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements remain in effect early this morning through this afternoon. West/southwest winds will diminish below 15 knots by this evening. Similar flow will continue through Saturday with west/southwest winds increasing to 15 to 20 knots ahead of the next cold front Sunday morning and shifting to the northwest behind the front Sunday afternoon. Additional Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements will likely be needed during this time. West/southwest winds to 10 to 15 knots are expected Monday and Tuesday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 AM EDT this morning for OHZ007-009. Beach Hazards Statement until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for OHZ010-011. Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for OHZ012-089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for LEZ142>144. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ145- 146. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ147>149.