textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front will bring rain and gusty winds across the area today into Saturday.

2) Colder air will arrive behind the front tonight through Saturday. Frost/Freeze headlines are likely Saturday night into Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... The latest radar imagery and surface observations reveal pre- frontal activity exiting east of the area early this morning, while more widespread rain approaches from the west associated with a cold front. Given the unfavorable timing of the front this morning, the threat for any stronger showers or storms across our area appears low. A reinforcing cold front/secondary trough will arrive from the northwest later this afternoon and evening, bringing another round of rain and colder air across the region, characterized by 850 mb temperatures falling as low as -6 to -7 degrees C by Saturday morning. A period of lake effect rain is likely to develop downwind of Lakes Huron and Erie, especially later tonight into Saturday morning between the I-71/I-77 corridors.

Winds will remain elevated for much of the day in the 25 to 30 mph range, though will be most gusty (up to 40 mph) with the frontal passage this morning, and with the secondary trough later this afternoon and evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will gradually build from the west on Saturday, setting the stage for a prolonged period of generally quiet weather through the upcoming week. The cold air mass in place with the building high should result in efficient radiative cooling, especially Saturday night into Sunday morning where temperatures are expected to fall into the low 30s or even upper 20s in some spots. At the minimum, a widespread frost is expected across much of the area and headlines will be needed. Frost conditions may return again Sunday night into Monday as high pressure continues to influence the weather, though lows may be slightly more moderated in the mid to upper 30s with increasing warm air advection.

AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/

It will be an unsettled TAF period with showers and low ceilings at times. A cold front will cross from west to east between 10-13z this morning. Ahead of the front there are some widely scattered, mainly light showers, with ceilings ranging widely from mostly MVFR/VFR to some IFR/LIFR at eastern locations such as CAK/YNG. A broken line of gusty showers may develop along the front itself, especially in the CLE/ERI/CAK/YNG vicinity. Behind the front ceilings should all settle into an MVFR range (perhaps brief IFR right behind the front at some sites), with a more widespread batch of light rain showers expected to fill in 13-17z and continue through the afternoon. A secondary front is expected to drop south-southeast across the area between 20-0z this evening. Some more moderate showers can accompany this secondary front, followed by a brief lull in rain at most sites as MVFR ceilings persist into tonight. North-northwest winds aligning over Lake Erie will allow light to moderate lake effect rain showers to develop later this evening and continue into the overnight, especially in the vicinity of CLE.

Winds are initially south-southwest at 7-15kt with some gusts to around 25kt. Have low-level wind shear included at all sites initially with a 40-50kt low-level jet overhead and marginal to no mixing. Winds shift west at 10-15kt with 25-30kt gusts with the first front, then more northerly this evening and tonight behind the secondary front. Winds will remain 10-15kt tonight, but will be stronger (15-20kt with 30kt gusts) closer to Lake Erie, especially impacting CLE and ERI.

Outlook...Occasional non-VFR expected to continue in periods of rain showers and lower ceilings through Friday night. Winds may gust over 30kt at times through early Saturday.

MARINE

Rough marine conditions will arrive across Lake Erie this morning as a cold front ushers in west to northwest winds of 25 to 30 knots with periodic Gale Force gusts likely behind a secondary trough later this afternoon and evening. Conditions will improve through Saturday morning as north winds gradually subside to 15 to 25 knots becoming west to southwest, 10 to 15 knots, by Saturday night into Sunday. Generally light winds 10 knots or less are expected Sunday through mid-next week as high pressure influences much of the weather pattern.

Water levels may briefly near the critical mark of 5 inches above low water datum across the western basin early this morning, though levels are expected to quickly rise later this morning as winds shift more to the west to northwest behind the cold front.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142-143- 149. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ144>148.