textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Not much has changed from previous forecast. Cool weather this weekend followed by a brief warm up early next week. A cooler weather pattern will return for the end of next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure and cool weather expected for the rest of this weekend.

2) There will be a brief warm up ahead of a cold front Monday into Tuesday. An upper level trough will develop over the Great Lakes region and bring below average temperatures for the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Weak high pressure is building down from Ontario Canada this weekend. Skies will stay pretty much overcast today through early Sunday with gradual clearing by Sunday afternoon. There will be a northeast to easterly flow today through Sunday that will keep temperatures on the cooler side. Temperatures will range from the middle 50s near the lakeshore to the middle 60s closer to central Ohio today. High temperatures on Sunday will range from the upper 50s near the lakeshore to middle to upper 60s closer to central Ohio.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A low pressure system will track northeastward through the Midwest into western Great Lakes on Monday with a trailing cold front. Southerly winds will return on Monday and warmer temperatures with high temperatures in the lower to upper 70s. Most of Monday will be dry with partly cloudy skies. Later Monday night, scattered showers and isolated thunder will move in from west to east ahead of the approaching cold front. The actual cold front will move across the area by Tuesday afternoon. Additional scattered showers and isolated thunder will be likely on Tuesday. Temperatures will still be warm on Tuesday in the lower to middle 70s. An upper level trough begins to take shape over the Great Lakes region for the middle and end of next week with a cooler weather pattern. A wave of low pressure will track across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday with additional chances for scattered showers over the area. Much cooler temperatures will arrive later next week with highs in the 50s and overnight lows in the 30s and 40s. We will have to keep an eye on a couple nights late next week for the possibility of frost and or freezing temperatures in regards to the growing season.

AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/

Mostly IFR/LIFR conditions with both ceilings and visibility (from BR/DZ) are observed across the area, with more MVFR across Northwest Ohio. These conditions should generally continue through tonight with LIFR becoming a bit more common, especially closer to Lake Erie in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. A few models are showing fog developing late tonight in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. This will mainly impact KERI but could briefly impact KYNG and KCLE at times. Conditions will quickly improve to MVFR late Sunday morning and the VFR with mostly sunny skies by Sunday afternoon.

Outlook...Periodic rain showers with non-VFR are expected Monday night through Thursday. Occasional thunderstorms are expected Monday night through Wednesday.

MARINE

A high pressure ridge builds slowly from the James Bay area through tonight and then exits slowly E'ward on Sunday through Monday. Waves of 3 feet or less are expected as winds around 5 to 15 knots veer gradually from N'erly to E'erly to SE'erly. Note: patchy fog is expected over Lake Erie the rest of today through late Sunday morning as colder and fairly moist air crosses the ~49F lake.

During Monday night through Wednesday morning, a low should deepen and wobble NNE'ward from the Upper MS Valley to Hudson Bay. The accompanying warm front should sweep NE'ward across Lake Erie Monday night through early Tuesday afternoon and be followed by the E'ward passage of a cold front Tuesday evening through Tuesday night. By daybreak Wednesday, the cold front should be located over far-eastern Lake Erie and may stall for a time before exiting the rest of the lake to the east by midday as a secondary low potentially moves NNE'ward along the front. The warm front passage will cause E'erly to SE'erly winds around 15 to 25 knots to veer to S'erly to SW'erly. The cold front passage will cause S'erly to SW'erly winds around 10 to 20 knots to veer to NW'erly. Waves as large as 3 to 6 feet are expected Monday night into Tuesday morning. Waves should then subside gradually to 3 feet or less the rest of Tuesday through Wednesday morning. Forecast trends may prompt a Small Craft Advisory.

During Wednesday afternoon, a trough should linger over Lake Erie before a high pressure ridge builds from the north-central United States Wednesday night through Thursday. W'erly to NW'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots and waves of 3 feet or less are expected.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.