textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

QPF for tonight into Monday has trended a bit lower with this update, but otherwise the forecast is on track and no significant changes were needed.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread rain is expected and thunderstorms are possible tonight into Monday. Rain be moderate at times.

2) Dry weather with below normal temperatures are expected through early to mid week with temperatures warming and rain chances returning late week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Low pressure will move east across the Ohio Valley and far southern reaches of the forecast area late tonight into Monday. Showers will attempt to overspread the region late this afternoon into this evening, although it will likely remain virga for several hours due to dry lower levels. Precipitation will likely become a bit more scattered with periodic dry periods near or shortly after 12Z/8 AM Monday morning, although some CAMs (including the 12Z HRRR) have dry air working into the region earlier than that. Rain could be moderate at times, however QPF has trended down further. Around an inch of rain is possible across portions of northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania with locally higher amounts possible, although locations south of U.S. Route 30 may only see up to 0.75 inches of rain at most. Some nuisance ponding cannot be ruled out in low-lying and poor drainage areas that get over an inch of rain, but the flooding risk is relatively low at this point.

Elevated thunderstorms remain possible tonight into early Monday, although severe weather is not anticipated. Showers and isolated thunderstorms may perk up a bit during peak diurnal heating east of I-71, although instability will likely largely be to the southeast of the local area.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Below normal temperatures are expected Monday and in more zonal flow Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s Monday before rising into the mid to upper 70s by Wednesday. Temps moderate late week into the weekend with highs likely returning to the mid 80s in many spots by Sunday. Dry weather will return to the region Monday night through Wednesday with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances returning as a series of disturbances move across the region Wednesday night through the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/

Low pressure will track through the upper Ohio Valley on Monday. It will remain VFR the rest of this afternoon ahead of a batch of rain that will accompany this low pressure. Initial light rain showers begin spreading in from the west late this evening, with the steadiest and heaviest rain likely late tonight into early Monday. Rain will trend more intermittent and showery during the day Monday, though a band of more organized and moderate showers may develop across Northwest Ohio Monday morning and pivot east-southeast across the area through the afternoon, bringing another period of more notable rain. Ceilings will not fall much until rain starts, then will gradually fall to a mix of IFR and low MVFR by early Monday. Ceilings will largely fall to MVFR during steadier or more intense rain, though downpours with a period of IFR visibility are possible early Monday morning, especially at TOL and CLE.

Winds are light this afternoon, ranging from northwesterly across Northeast OH/Northwest PA and more southwesterly towards Northwest OH. Winds shift east-northeast across the board and increase to 6-12kt tonight. Winds will remain northeast on Monday across Northwest OH and closer to Lake Erie farther east, but will briefly shift southwesterly from MFD-CAK-YNG points south on the south side of the low track. Northeast winds will increase to 8-15kt (with a few gusts to 25kt near Lake Erie) on Monday, with the southwest winds a bit lighter at 5-10kt.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely lingers Monday afternoon and evening in showers and lower ceilings. Non-VFR possible again in rain showers Wednesday night through Thursday night.

MARINE

Light N to NW winds are expected early this morning increasing to 5-10 knots this afternoon as high pressure gradually slides into the eastern Great Lakes to allow low pressure to approach from the Mid Mississippi Valley tonight. Winds will turn E this evening ahead of the warm front extending east from this low, and the E winds are expected to become quite strong in the 15-25 knots range late tonight and early Monday, especially in the western and central basins. This will build wave heights to 3-5 feet. As the low passes across northern Ohio Monday, winds will quickly turn NE behind the trailing cold front, staying in the 15-20 knot range. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements will be needed late tonight and Monday for at least the western and central basins for winds, waves, and rip currents. Light winds are expected Tuesday through Wednesday as high pressure builds down across the Great Lakes before turning S to SW ahead of the next low and associated cold front Thursday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through Monday afternoon for OHZ003-007-009. Beach Hazards Statement from Monday morning through Monday afternoon for OHZ010>012. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 5 PM EDT Monday for LEZ142>144. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 5 PM EDT Monday for LEZ145>147.