textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures and mainly dry weather continue through Saturday, outside of any isolated rain showers Thursday night. Rain chances return Sunday and into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

High pressure off the New England coast will allow for dry weather to continue today into much of the day on Thursday. Southerly return flow will allow for high temperatures to warm into the 70s, well above normal for late October. High temperatures may challenge record highs for Thursday, see climate section below for more information.

A cold front will enter the region from the northwest Thursday evening accompanied by weak forcing aloft. Latest hi-res guidance has increased precipitation chances across Northwest Ohio though the highest chances (40-60%) remain localized to Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania.

High pressure returns Friday into Saturday allowing for another window of dry weather. Temperatures will be slightly cooler, but remain above normal with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s and 50s.

The weather pattern takes a turn Sunday into next week with rain chances returning Sunday. Rain chances look to linger into next week.

AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

VFR conditions with mid-and-high level clouds will continue across the region this morning before clearing out by the afternoon. Winds will shift to a general south to southwest direction as high pressure moves off the East Coast. With highs expected in the 70s next to a 60 degree Lake Erie and a weak pressure gradient over the region, a modified lake breeze may develop for KERI and KCLE this afternoon. Winds will return to a southwest direction for Thursday and increase with the warm air advection.

Outlook...Non-VFR will be possible on Sunday with rain showers.

MARINE

Winds remain offshore 5-10 knots through tonight, becoming light and variable at times. Southerly to southwesterly winds will increase to 10-15 knots tonight into Thursday before shifting northwesterly to northerly behind a cold front Thursday evening. Choppy conditions with waves 2-4 feet in the central basin remain possible behind the frontal passage. High pressure returns Friday and Saturday allowing for northerly to northeasterly winds to remain 10 knots or less.

CLIMATE

We are forecast to be within a few degrees of record warmth on Thursday. Here are the record high temperatures for our six climate sites on October 29th:

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 10-29 79(2024) 79(1922) 78(2024) 77(1900) 77(2024) 77(2024)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.