textproduct: Cleveland
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
No significant changes from the previous forecast.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Mainly seasonable and dry weather is expected through next week. Frost headlines are possible Monday night.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... The latest radar and satellite imagery reveal a surface cold front that has exited south of the area this afternoon, with residual cloud cover lingering across the region. Cloud cover is expected to quickly erode by this evening as an area of high pressure briefly builds south into the Great Lakes.
Another cold front will move east through the area on Sunday, though precipitation chances should be limited or negligible with a large area of mid-level dry air in place. Behind this front, a stronger area of Canadian high pressure will build south into the region, ushering in cooler and drier air. The highest confidence for the most widespread frost threat appears to be Monday night into Tuesday morning when the high is directly overhead, resulting in efficient radiative cooling. The frost potential will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, though the area may become more limited and confined to sheltered areas/inland Northwest Pennsylvania as warm air advection gradually increases from the west.
Another weak cold front may cross the area by the end of the week, though the latest guidance suggests this may be another mainly dry frontal passage with ample mid-level dry air in place.
AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/
VFR through the period. Cirrus the main player, but no ceilings into Saturday. Winds northerly 5-10kts become northeasterly 10kts Saturday.
Outlook...Overall VFR conditions expected this weekend into early next week.
MARINE
Choppy to rough marine conditions will return across the Central and Eastern basin of Lake Erie this evening and overnight as north winds increase to near 20 knots. Conditions will gradually improve on Saturday into Sunday, though remain choppy with north to northeast winds of 10 to 15 knots. Another cold front will cross the lake Sunday night into Monday, ushering in north to northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots, and another round of Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed. Winds will become light and variable on Tuesday with high pressure overhead.
CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ146>148.
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