textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the previous forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry with gradual warming through Wednesday.

2) Cold front brings showers/storms late Wednesday into Wednesday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Upper level ridging over the plains region that has been persistent over the past several days will work its way eastward into the Great Lakes heading towards midweek. High pressure that had been building into the southern Great Lakes from the north will finally trudge eastward after keeping the region in northeasterly flow this weekend. This will allow flow to finally turn southeasterly by Tuesday, and then as the cold front approaches from the west, southwesterly with surface dewpoint advection, all while 500mb heights increase. Though the weather will be dry prior to Wednesday, expect a brief period of very warm/humid air in the region late Tuesday into Wednesday prior to the arrival of convection/the cold front as temperatures and dewpoints climb.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Will see low level jet, shear, and MLCAPE values increasing ahead of the cold front for Wednesday into Wednesday night leading to higher confidence of thunderstorms for the midweek period. One thing to watch will be the track of the main surface low for this system as it currently looks to push through northern Ontario/James Bay/northern Quebec with the upper level trough as well. With the main energy that far north, will need to watch how the models handle the placement of the aforementioned low level jet. As it stands, the stronger winds should be further to the northeast towards upstate New York/New England. So at this point, still have many of the finer details to sort out for this system, but for now, it looks like lines of storms ahead of the cold front should be expected with at least a potential for severe weather for now.

AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/

VFR across the TAF sites early this morning with VFR to persist through the TAF period. A sct deck around 3.5kft may develop this afternoon across the interior with brief pockets of bkn possible. Otherwise, winds will favor an east to northeast direction through the TAF period, generally 7 to 10 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.

MARINE

One last day of persistent northeast winds 10-20kts that will bring wave heights 2-3ft over the central and western basins of Lake Erie, peaking in the late afternoon hours today. Surface winds finally turn offshore/southeasterly tonight 5-10kts into Tuesday with wave heights in the nearshore a foot or less. Winds turn west southwesterly 15-25kts heading into Wednesday ahead of a cold front. This will translate to immediate nearshore zones Cleveland and west at 1-3ft waves, increasing rapidly away from shore. Cleveland east towards New York expect wave heights 3-5ft with the winds now parallel to the shoreline. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed Wednesday into Wednesday night.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.