textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A cold weather advisory has been issued for the entire forecast area from 7 PM tonight to 11 AM Saturday for wind chill values in the -15 to -24F range. There is a hint of an active winter weather pattern developing for the middle-to-end of next week that could bring widespread additional snow and travel impacts.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Very cold weather will persist through Sunday night with nightly air temperatures near or below zero and wind chills of 10 degrees below zero or colder expected. Air temperatures may approach record low values on this morning and Saturday morning. The cold weather will continue to pose a significant risk of exposure to people and animals in addition to damage to infrastructure.

2) There are intermittent light snow chances through Saturday night. There may be some marginal travel impacts with any repetitive shower activity.

3) There are hints at an active winter weather pattern returning for the middle and end of next week with systems that could bring additional accumulating snowfall and associated travel impacts. Confidence in snow amounts and impacts remain low at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Arctic high pressure will continue building south across the central US today into Saturday and allow for cold air to be reinforced across the region. However, some element of a surface trough will remain through the eastern Great Lakes and may allow for some intermittent clouds and snow showers that will keep temperatures slightly elevated compared clearing areas. Tonight will be the coldest night of this stretch of cold weather with low temperatures in clear locations falling below zero to as low as -12F. This would be record breaking cold for January 30 and 31 and the current records are noted in the climate section below. There will be very limited wind tonight with the surface high to the west, but any bit of wind over 4 kts will allow for wind chills in the -15 to -20F range. Therefore, have gone ahead and issued a Cold Weather Advisory for the entire forecast area. Will fully admit that there will be some forecast zones that will be impacted by clouds or not have enough of a wind to force colder wind chill values. However, a large portion of the area will have wind chills at or below -15F at some point tonight and opted for the simpler message.

Temperatures will remain under 20 degrees through Sunday night with lows on Saturday night once again below zero and lows on Sunday night ranging from 5F to -5F across the area. There will be slightly more elevated wind on Saturday night with high pressure to the southwest and a potent system moving up the East Coast and there could be the need for additional Cold Weather Advisories.

With 3 additional days of temperatures of 20 degrees or colder expected, the strain from the cold will continue to increase daily. This prolonged stretch of cold conditions will result in increased infrastructure problems, including burst pipes and dead car batteries. There will be additional stress on people and animals, as well. Folks should continue to limit time outdoors and wear protective clothing to prevent frostbite and other impacts from cold exposure, including hypothermia. Pets and other animals should have limited time outdoors.

The weather pattern will start to "moderate" on Monday with high pressure shifting east and temperatures returning to the 20s and less frigid nightly lows in the teens. While any chances for Cold Weather Advisories with wind chills or below zero temperatures will disappear with the change in the weather pattern, there could still be some residual stress on infrastructure as temperatures will remain below freezing through the foreseeable future.

KEY MESSAGE 2... As evidenced by intermittent snow showers on Thursday, there still is a trough over the Great Lakes region along with some upstream lake effect snow that will allow for some light and intermittent snow showers to continue through Saturday night. A little bit of dry air will push through this morning with high pressure building from the northwest and allow for a brief period of no snow and less clouds. Tonight, the upper trough will slide south through the region and should allow for snow to flare up again for tonight through Saturday night. Still believe that new snow amounts will be low and under one inch but have some low PoPs and clouds to characterize that we could continue to see some additional accumulations and some marginal travel impacts as snow will be quick to stick to the frozen roadways across the region.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Over the last three runs of the deterministic GFS, there have been hints of a low pressure system moving through the Ohio Valley. This would put the local area on the cold side of the system and allow for widespread accumulating snowfall. Other global models do not yet have this system or signal, and the origin of the upper level support of this system in the GFS is still over the Northwest Pacific Ocean. Therefore, there is very low confidence on this system at this time and potential impacts in the region.

For late next week into the weekend, there are signals in all of the global models in another intrusion of colder air into the region, including another cold low pressure system that would bring snow to the Great Lakes region and another surge of frigid temperatures well below normal. While this cold signal has remained persistent, there are still many details to iron out and confidence in the snow and cold are low right now. However, it reaffirms that this prolonged cold spell will not be breaking anytime soon.

AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/

At the surface, a high pressure ridge continues to build from the north-central United States and vicinity through 12Z/Sat. Our regional surface winds trend variable in direction and around 5 to 10 knots in magnitude. Isolated to broken low-level clouds with bases mainly near 3.5kft to 5kft AGL are expected through the TAF period. Greatest low-level cloud coverage expected this afternoon and early evening due to diurnal cumulus cloud development.

Mainly dry weather and VFR visibility are forecast through the TAF period. However, there are two exceptions:

- Areas of mist with MVFR to IFR visibility are expected until ~15Z/Fri in NE OH and NW PA, including at/near KERI, KYNG, and KCAK.

- Light lake-effect snow with mainly MVFR ceilings/visibility is possible over and generally south of mainly ice-covered Lake Erie after ~08Z/Sat amidst a NW'erly to N'erly mean low-level flow of cold air and an uptick in low-level moisture.

Outlook...Periodic non-VFR due to low clouds and/or snow expected through this Tuesday.

MARINE

Wind speeds are expected to be around 5 to 15 knots through this Tuesday. Primarily N'erly to W'erly winds are forecast on Lake Erie through Sunday as a ridge builds from the north-central United States and vicinity. The ridge begins to exit E'ward Sunday night through Monday, which will cause W'erly winds to shift to SW'erly. SW'erly winds veer to W'erly Monday night with the E'ward passage of a very weak cold front. Winds should become variable in direction on Tuesday as another ridge builds from the Upper Midwest and vicinity. The continued presence of a cold air mass and the relatively-weak winds will allow extensive ice cover on Lake Erie to expand and thicken further through early next week.

CLIMATE

Record cold low temperatures are possible on Friday and Saturday. Here are the daily record cold low temperatures for January 30th and 31st:

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 01-30 -10(2019) -10(2019) -4(1873) -6(1965) -8(1965) -4(2019) 01-31 -10(2019) -7(2019) -5(1971) -5(1948) -9(1948) -6(1899)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Saturday for OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047- 089. PA...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Saturday for PAZ001>003. MARINE...None.