textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes made to the forecast at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Low rain chances remain for eastern areas tonight before more widespread rain enters for Wednesday.

2) A cool weather pattern will take hold for the end of the week into the weekend with low confidence and low coverage rain chances and the potential for frost/freeze.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front continues crossing the forecast area this afternoon and will exit this evening. Along and ahead of the front, there is a more robust, diurnally-driven cumulus field that has occasionally overachieved into spotty showers. With some areas of NE OH and NW PA reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s, there could be some scattered rain development until the front passes and will keep a 20-40% PoP over the next couple of hours. For tonight into Wednesday, a low pressure system will develop over the southern US and move northeast along the cold front and into the region. Widespread showers are expected with this system and have maintained categorical PoPs for much of the area. Rain should generally be one inch or less and does not pose a significant flooding threat at this time. The forecast area will be on the cold side of the low and cold front and thunderstorm chances are low and are favored to the east.

KEY MESSAGE 2... The pattern for Thursday and beyond will be a cool, Spring pattern with a closed upper low over the Great Lakes region and eastern Canada through the weekend. This system will allow for temperatures to remain below normal. Some waves of energy with this low will move through the region and could spark some isolated rain chances but there is low confidence in potential and coverage at this time. The cooler temperatures across the region with the upper low will allow for lows in the 30s and this could allow for some frost/freeze chances nightly. True frost chances could be limited with clouds across the region but temperatures dipping into the lower 30s would present the freeze opportunity for some folks.

AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

VFR conditions are expected this evening but MVFR ceilings will move in by Wednesday morning. Lower end MVFR to IFR ceilings and conditions are expected later Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. Widespread rain showers are expected to move in Wednesday morning through the afternoon with 2sm to 5sm visibilities. Winds will start out northwesterly 5 to 10 knots this evening. Winds will shift around to the north and northeast on Wednesday 5 to 12 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in showers possible on Thursday night/Friday morning.

MARINE

Winds and waves across Lake Erie have continued to subside this afternoon into the evening and drop below Small Craft criteria. Overnight, winds will become light at less than 10 knots across the lake and veer to be out of the north. By tomorrow evening, winds will increase slightly to 10-15 knots out of the north-northwest. Waves will build as a response to around 3 feet in the near shore with the on shore winds. Through the end of the week, quiet marine conditions are expected with winds varying between north to northwest at 5-10 knots and waves being less than 3 feet. Over the weekend, winds should back to be out of the west at 10-20 knots as high pressure moves to the south of the region.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.