textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Frost and Freeze headlines added for the cold overnight. Slightly stretched out the timing of the POPs ending in the next couple of hours.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Some improvements coming to the temperatures into Monday.

2) Strong frontal system midweek brings more rain to the area and temperatures back down into the 50s and likely not drying out until after Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Frost/Freeze expected tonight.

While the main upper trough bringing chilly and wet weather to the region the past couple of days exits, high pressure moving west to east south of the CWA will finally get east enough to bring a warm advective pattern. 850mb temperatures that have been below zero will creep above zero with low level warm air advection for Monday and Tuesday, and will see temperature improvements each day, accordingly. Some low end shower activity is possible Sunday night in some short lived isentropic lift mainly at 290K. An upper level wave brings shower/storm chances ahead of a strengthening frontal system late Monday into Tuesday. Could see temperatures in the 70s in places on Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Ahead of the cold front, showers and storms to become more numerous. As the front moves into the southern Great Lakes, forward progress of the system will likely be slowed as waves of surface low pressure develop along the front. This will serve to lengthen the amount of time that the rain chances settle over the CWA as those waves of low pressure keep the front from pushing eastward. High POPs will linger with the front through Wednesday before finally exiting, only to be followed by a trailing upper trough axis Thursday as broad low pressure aloft reclaims the Great Lakes. Temperatures back below normal and into the 50s for the end of the week before finally showing slow improvement again into the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/

Variable conditions across the area early this afternoon, with a trough axis pushing southeast across the area and continuing to bring MVFR ceilings and light showers (mainly rain) across portions of inland northern OH and inland northwestern PA, including to TAF sites such as MFD, CAK, and YNG. Drier air is filtering in behind this feature allowing a return to VFR, which should then continue through the remainder of the TAF period.

Mainly northerly winds at 5-10 knot this afternoon will shift southwest at <7 knots tonight, increasing to 10-15kt with gusts to 25kt late morning/early afternoon on Sunday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms late Monday through Wednesday as a cold front moves southeast across the area.

MARINE

Some lingering 2 footers out there early this afternoon after a push of 10-15kt northerly winds this morning, but those are decreasing with tranquil marine conditions taking over. West- southwest winds increase modestly to 10-15kt overnight tonight, trending a bit stronger (15-20kt) on Sunday. Winds may exceed 20kt at times Sunday and especially Sunday night, building 3-5 foot waves in the open waters. South-southwest winds briefly slacken to 10-15kt during the day Monday, increasing to 15-25kt again Monday night into Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds flip northerly behind the front late Tuesday into Tuesday night, diminishing into Wednesday. The impression is that Small Craft Advisories may be needed at times for stronger southwest winds late Sunday/Sunday night, and again Monday night and Tuesday through the frontal passage. Any advisories would be marginal and future shifts will evaluate the potential need.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Sunday for OHZ003-006>009-011-012-017-018-027-036-089. Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Sunday for OHZ010-013-014-019>023-028>033-037-038-047. PA...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ001. Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ002-003. MARINE...None.