textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Made a few adjustments to pops for today to keep the potential for light showers across the area, especially across the southwest counties, but no other changes were needed and the remainder of the forecast is on track.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure will continue to drift east off the Mid-Atlantic Coast through tomorrow with gradually warming temperatures expected. Light, scattered rain shower are possible throughout today.

2) Widespread showers arrive on Wednesday as a low pressure system moves into the region. Lingering showers are expected into Thursday, especially across northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure that is slowly drifting east and off the Mid-Atlantic Coast will continue to influence the area through Tuesday. A dominant southerly flow has developed across the area as a result of the positioning of the high, which has allowed for an increase in both moisture and warm air advection into the area. Temperatures across the area this morning remain mild with most locations in the mid to upper 50s with dewpoints in the 40s. These mild temperatures will translate to highs today climbing into the mid to upper 60s. With increasing moisture in the entire column, a push of mid-level energy across the area today may be enough for light rain showers to develop and to reach the surface instead of evaporating. Overall coverage will remain scattered with the highest confidence across western counties. By tonight, the mid-level energy will shift east and allow for widespread dry conditions to arrive for Tuesday. Tuesday will see temperatures well above normal as a warm front lifts north across the area and temperatures surge into the 70s. Some areas will flirt with record setting warmth on Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A notable shift in the weather pattern will occur on Wednesday as a deepening trough over the central US moves a surface low into the region. This system will move a preliminary cold front east across the area on Wednesday, providing a focal point for widespread showers to develop. Given the persistent moisture advection into the area, rainfall amounts are expected to range from 0.25-0.5 inches of precipitation. Given the prolonged dry period leading into this system, basins should be able to handle this amount of precipitation without problem, however in areas that see heavy rainfall there may be locally increased runoff. In addition, given a strong LLJ of 40- 50 knots pushing into the area and decent upper level support from the vort max and jet, there is a non-zero chance for thunder Wednesday afternoon but no severe weather is expected.

On Thursday, showers will gradually taper from west to east before a lake effect processes take over and keep shower chances across portions of the snowbelt into Friday. Additional shower activity is possible into the weekend as a series of upper level troughs pushes east through the region. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through the middle of the week before dipping closer to normal by Friday into the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Friday/

VFR to MVFR ceilings are expected for this TAF period. TAF sites across NEOH and NWPA are seeing VFR ceilings. TAF sites across NWOH are seeing MVFR ceilings. The MVFR ceilings for NWOH will continue through the evening hours. Some MVFR ceilings may try to move into CLE and CAK during the evening hours. All sites will return to VFR ceilings for Tuesday morning. Winds will be southerly 5 to 12 knots with occasional gusts up to 20 knots this afternoon and again midday on Tuesday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain Wednesday into Thursday.

MARINE

High pressure will continue to drift east off the Mid-Atlantic Coast through Tuesday, allowing for a persistent south-southwesterly flow through that time. Winds today will be 5-12 knots before increasing to 10-15 knots on Tuesday. Given the offshore flow, waves along the southern lakeshore will remain 2 feet or less. On Wednesday, a low pressure system will move into the region, pushing a cold front east late Wednesday into Thursday. Winds on Wednesday will be south- southeasterly at 15-20 knots before shifting to southwesterly Wednesday night and weakening to 10-15 knots behind the front. A brief Small Craft Advisory may be needed Wednesday given the stronger winds, however given the marginal forecast at this point, confidence in needing a headline is low. The southwest winds will persist through Thursday before a surface trough lingers on Friday and winds become northwesterly at 10-15 knots. This late week period may need an additional Small Craft Advisory if wind speeds trend closer to 20 knots in future updates.

CLIMATE

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 11-03 77(1987) 76(2015) 79(1961) 80(1961) 80(1961) 80(1961) 11-04 80(2003) 77(2015) 79(2003) 76(2015) 77(2003) 78(2015)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.