textproduct: Cleveland

SYNOPSIS

A trough will persist across the lower Great Lakes today with a weak clipper system moving east across the region this afternoon into this evening and a trough lingering in its wake through Friday. High pressure will return for Saturday before another weak disturbance clips the area Sunday into Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

The Arctic front has largely cleared to the southeast of the local area. Have already seen a significant downward trend in lake effect snow showers across Ohio zones which will continue through this morning. With that being said, lingering troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will result in continued lake effect snow showers across NW PA throughout the day today. In general, snow accumulations across OH zones will be an inch or less through this morning, but have left headlines as is given the potential for continued hazardous holiday travel. The Ohio Lake Effect Snow Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories will likely expire on time at 7 AM EST (if not expired early as travel conditions improve). Across NW PA, additional snow accumulations through this morning will generally be 1 to 3 inches.

A clipper/shortwave will move across the region this afternoon into this evening and there will most likely be a swath of light snow across most of the region before precipitation once again transitions back to lake effect snow by tonight. Snow accumulations will be light with the clipper, although a few high res models are hinting at about an inch of snow accumulation outside of the snowbelt region. Travel may briefly become hazardous given chilly surface temperatures in the lower 20s this afternoon.

Lake effect snow will persist across the primary snowbelt region tonight through Friday. The best forcing and the best opportunity for moderate to periodically heavy snowfall rates will occur tonight into early Friday morning with rates diminishing as inversion heights decrease during the day Friday. Snow amounts will be highest across the higher terrain of inland Erie County PA where 4 to 6 inches of snow are likely between tonight and early Friday afternoon. The remainder of the primary snowbelt will likely see 2 to 4 inches with locally higher amounts of 4 or 5 inches possible across the higher elevations of Lake/Geauga/inland Ashtabula/northern Crawford counties. Additional Winter Weather Advisories may be needed especially for inland Erie County, PA, although a marginal Lake Effect Snow Warning (or an extension of the existing Lake Effect Snow Warning) may be needed for Erie County. Would like to see how lake effect snow behaves through the next several hours before hoisting any additional headlines for tonight/Friday, especially since there's still some uncertainty in where exactly the heavier bands of snow will set up.

Today's highs will be in the upper teens and lower 20s and tonight's lows are expected to fall into the low to mid teens with upper teens more likely close to Lake Erie. Single digit wind chills are anticipated today and tonight. Friday's highs will be in the 20s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Any lingering lake effect snow will diminish as high pressure builds into the region Friday night into Saturday. Dry weather is expected through the daytime hours Saturday before the next clipper delivers additional scattered lake-enhanced snow chances to the snowbelt region Saturday. At this point, it appears that snow accumulations will be relatively light with this system. Another lull is expected Sunday night, however snow chances will once again return as the next clipper skirts across the area starting late Sunday.

Highs will be in the mid to upper 20s this weekend with lows in the teens expected. Lows may be a bit warmer at around 20 degrees along the lakeshore Saturday and Sunday nights and the development of warm air advection will likely produce lows in the lower 20s across NW OH Sunday night.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Light snow showers are possible as the aforementioned weak clipper continues to cross the area into Monday, but otherwise expect a benign weather pattern and warming temperatures through Tuesday as a ridge builds into the region. Flow becomes a bit more zonal by midweek and a cold front may usher rain chances into the region towards the end of the long term period. High temperatures in the low to mid 30s Monday will give way to highs in the 40s Tuesday and Wednesday. A warming trend is likely with low temps as well; lows will be in the mid to upper 20s Monday night and the 30s Tuesday night.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Conditions have improved drastically from last night with the majority of airfields across the region being VFR this morning. There are a few locations sprinkled in throughout that are seeing MVFR conditions due to ceilings. Snow showers have waned as well with light returns on radar from KCLE eastward, though any snow showers have not been bringing visibilities down to non-VFR conditions. Another clipper system will move through the region this evening into the overnight that will bring another chance for widespread snow showers. For locations away from the snowbelt, impacts should be minimal dropping conditions down to MVFR and confined to a few hour period around 22-06Z tonight. For the snowbelt sites from KCLE up through KERI, IFR conditions are likely with the enhanced lake effect snow showers this evening, though KCLE should recover by 06Z tonight. KERI on the other hand, will see prolonged non-VFR conditions due to snow showers through the end of the TAF period.

Winds through the TAF period will generally be out of the west at 6-12 knots though will waver out of the southwest overnight tonight. Areas along the lake shore may gust upwards of 20-25 knots during that same time period.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions expected across NE OH and NW PA due to lake effect snow showers on Friday and Sunday. Possible periods of widespread non-VFR conditions Friday morning.

MARINE

The Small Craft Advisories from Reno Beach eastward through Ripley, NY remain in effect as winds and waves remain elevated. For areas along the nearshore from Avon Point westward, conditions have been quicker to improve and the advisory should be allowed to fall off at 7AM this morning. For the remainder of the nearshore to the east, conditions will generally stay elevated into small craft criteria through the end of the week. There will be a brief lull in the winds today decreasing to 15-20 knots out of the west before another shortwave moves north of the region this evening dragging a trough across Lake Erie and the winds will increase up to 25 knots as a result. Winds will continue to be out of the west and decrease to around 15-20 knots throughout the day on Friday before decreasing further to 5-15 knots and shifting to the northwest by Saturday. The waves will be the main driver in the reasoning for the small craft lasting through Friday night as they will be slow to diminish below 4 feet. For today through Friday, waves in the central and eastern basins will generally be 3-6 feet. This weekend, high pressure will begin to build across the region and conditions will be quiet across Lake Erie into early next week.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for OHZ010- 011-020>023-031>033. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for OHZ012>014-089. PA...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for PAZ001>003. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LEZ143>145. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LEZ146>149.