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WHAT HAS CHANGED

Overall, the forecast and key messages remain on track. Cold temperatures are still expected through this weekend and an active weather pattern is possible during mid to late week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Very cold weather persists through Sunday night with subzero minimum temperatures and wind chills of 10 degrees below zero or colder expected. Temperatures may approach record low values on Saturday morning. The cold weather will continue to pose a significant risk of exposure to people and animals in addition to damage to infrastructure.

2) There are intermittent light snow chances through Saturday night and Monday/Monday night. There may be some marginal travel impacts with any repetitive snow shower activity.

3) There's potential for an unsettled weather pattern mid to late week next week. Accumulating snowfall and travel impacts are possible, although confidence remains low at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... An Arctic high will remain in place over the region over the next couple of days, resulting in continued hazardously cold temperatures especially overnight. Tonight's lows are expected to fall well below zero with the coldest temperatures of 10 to 15 degrees below zero expected in the southern half of the local area. Climate sites have another shot at meeting or exceeding record low temperatures early Saturday morning (see Climate section below). Winds will be relatively light (generally 6 mph or less), although the light winds will still manage to produce widespread wind chills in the -10 to -20 degree range. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM Saturday morning. Some cirrus will likely be across portions of the area overnight into early Saturday morning which could allow for some insulation, but locations that see prolonged clearing and typical cold spots may experience low temperatures and wind chills that are several degrees colder than currently forecast. With that being said, any locations that meet Extreme Cold Warning criteria should be relatively localized and confidence in those exact locations is too low to warrant the issuance of an Extreme Cold Warning.

During the day Saturday, wind chills will remain near or a few degrees below zero and highs will be in the teens. Another Cold Weather Advisory may be needed Saturday night into Sunday morning; temperatures will "only" be a few degrees below zero, but elevated winds could produce wind chills as low as -15 degrees.

The persisting frigid temperatures will continue to produce possible impacts on infrastructure including frozen and burst pipes and dead car batteries. There will also be impacts on people and animals that do not take necessary cold weather precautions. Limit time outdoors, wear protective clothing to prevent frostbite and hypothermia, and be sure that animals limit time outdoors.

Temperatures will begin to trend warmer (and by warmer we mean a bit less bitterly cold) next week with highs in the 20s anticipated for the majority of the week. However, as mentioned in the previous discussion, the continued subfreezing temperatures may continue to produce impacts on infrastructure through next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2... After a brief break in persistent snow today, light snow chances will return to the local area tonight into Saturday as a trough pushes south across Lake Erie. Precipitation will largely be lake-enhanced, although the minimal open spots/cracks in ice on Lake Erie will keep snowfall rates light. Similar to previous days, any snow that occurs could produce slippery travel due to sub-freezing pavement temperatures. Widespread light snow showers may move east across the area Monday and Monday night as a shortwave pushes east across the region with similar minor impacts possible.

KEY MESSAGE 3... By the middle of next week, low pressure will move east across the southeastern CONUS and possibly as far north as the Ohio Valley. The deterministic ECMWF places the northern fringe precipitation shield across the southern reaches of area during the middle of the week, but the 12Z deterministic GFS has shifted the low farther south. Overall, confidence in this system remains low given model fluctuations and spread in the track of the low. Will need to monitor this system since a northward shift in the low could result in accumulating snowfall and potential impacts, especially in southern portions of the CWA.

Guidance favors a more robust system dropping southeast out of the Great Lakes Friday with troughing persisting over the region into the weekend. While it's still 7+ days away and a lot will likely change with synoptic pattern, it's possible that this system produces accumulating snowfall across the local area late this week and potentially into the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/

VFR conditions are in place this afternoon although can not rule out MVFR ceilings at ERI for an hour or two. Ceilings of 3500-5000 feet also continue at TOL/FDY while skies have scattered cumulus at most other sites. Conditions will be dry at all terminals through about midnight. Later tonight a trough will push south across Lake Erie with a wind shift to the north and flurries or light snow showers are possible after 10Z at CLE/ERI/YNG and after 14Z at CAK. Visibilities may drop to MVFR in light snow for a window of time. Confidence is low in occurrence but the flow aligns downwind of Lake Huron through much of the day on Saturday at CLE and may have light snow/flurries at times through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...Periodic non-VFR due to low clouds and/or snow expected through Saturday night. Non-VFR possible again after Monday.

MARINE

While Lake Erie is mostly ice covered, generally good marine conditions are expected into next week. Winds will be below 15 knots over the weekend then increase to 10 to 20 knots on Monday ahead of a knots about clipper system crossing the Upper Great Lakes. Winds will veer to northwest behind the associated weak cold front Monday night into Tuesday. A system will track through the Ohio Valley during the middle of next week which could result in a period of enhanced NE winds.

Ice will continue to thicken on Lake Erie over the weekend as an arctic airmass remains over the region.

CLIMATE

Record cold low temperatures are possible on Saturday morning. Here are the daily record cold low temperatures for January 31st:

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 01-31 -10(2019) -7(2019) -5(1971) -5(1948) -9(1948) -6(1899)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Saturday for OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047- 089. PA...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Saturday for PAZ001>003. MARINE...None.