textproduct: Cleveland

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will persist across the region into Thursday. A cold front will move south through the area by late Thursday into Friday. This front will stall just south of Lake Erie on Friday and linger into Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Mainly quiet weather is expected for the near term period as high pressure across the Lower Ohio Valley influences our weather pattern into Thursday. Otherwise, a weak cold front will sag south across the Great lakes on Thursday which could result in a few isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

For today, upper-atmosphere haze should gradually improve as the main plume shifts further east, following the direction of the upper- level jet stream. A tight pressure gradient between a surface low to the north and high pressure to the south will result in periodic gusty southwest winds of 20 to 25 mph this afternoon. Above- average temperatures will be the norm over the next couple of days with highs generally in the mid-80s under mostly sunny skies. By Thursday, a weak cold front will sag south across the Great Lakes, with onshore winds augmented by a lake breeze in the afternoon. A weak convergent boundary along this front could result in a few isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms, though there remains some uncertainty on the amount of low-level moisture present.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

The cold front will have already moved south of Lake Erie and into the forecast area by Thursday night. Despite the presence of the front, it will be dry Thursday night as any lingering instability wanes. An upper-level trough approaches from the west and will begin to impact the region on Friday, with increasing deep-layer moisture and broad-scale ascent. This will lead to gradually increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and Friday night.

Rain and thunderstorm coverage is expected to be greatest on Saturday as the upper trough moves across the region. PoPs have increased to the 70-90% range on Saturday with PWATs around 1.7 inches which is nearing the max for climatological values (max is 1.81" from ILN sounding climatology), and around the 90th percentile from the ENS/NAEFS. There is a broad marginal risk WPC ERO for Saturday to highlight the low end risk of localized flooding, primarily due to the above normal moisture content but also because there is some potential for storm development and training of storms along the stationary front that linger over our area. We'll get a better picture of the precipitation and flooding potential once we get into range of regional models and CAMs.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Model guidance continue to differ slightly on the placement of the front Sunday and into early next week. Most ensemble solutions suggest the front will gradually sag south in the wake of the departing upper-level trough, though there are enough models that have that front nearby with showers and storms remaining possible, especially in the southern portion of our forecast area. For now, broad PoPs in the 20-50% range remain in the forecast.

AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

VFR across the TAF sites this morning with VFR to persist through the TAF period. Upper-air wildfire smoke will be replaced with arriving high cirrus through this afternoon and evening. Winds this morning are currently favoring a slight southwest direction, around 5 knots. Winds will become predominately out of the southwest by later this morning and afternoon, 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 22 knots.

Outlook...Mainly VFR expected through Thursday. Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms on Friday, becoming more likely on Saturday in widespread showers and thunderstorms. Non-VFR may linger into Sunday in scattered showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE

Southwest winds of around 10-15 knots are expected today and tonight before a cold front moves south across Lake Erie Thursday morning, allowing for winds to rapidly shift to out of the northeast. Winds generally waver between east and northeast through the remainder of the forecast with speeds generally around 10-15 knots. A fewer high resolution models, such as the HRRR, and hinting at possible local enhancements to the wind speed in the western basin at times to near 20 knots, which may things a bit choppy at times. We'll have to watch for the need for short-duration small craft advisories, though it's unclear right now when the best chance for that is.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.