textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Confidence in accumulating freezing rain across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania this morning has increased. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through 10 AM this morning. Additionally, the flooding risk has decreased as the axis of highest QPF has shifted south of the forecast area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Accumulating freezing rain will briefly impact Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania this morning before transitioning to all rain later this morning.

2) Trending warmer with multiple rounds of rain expected today through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A warm front will continue to lift north across the Ohio Valley with primarily light rain showers moving through the local area this morning. Along the leading edge of precipitation, some light freezing rain/drizzle will be possible across portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Overall accumulations will generally range between a light glaze to a few hundredths of an inch. Have issued a Winter Weather Advisory across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania where highest accumulations will likely occur. Anticipate for any freezing rain to transition to all rain between 8 and 10 AM this morning. Periods of rain showers will move across the region through tonight as the warm front becomes stationary across the local area this afternoon and evening. Rain should gradually diminish later tonight as the front sinks south of the forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 2... The aforementioned warm front will waver across the region through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Multiple disturbances will track through the area along the front bringing periods of rain showers to the region. The southward shift of the stalled front has largely shifted the axis of higher QPF amounts south of the local area. The latest forecast now has generally 0.25 to 1 inch of rainfall across the region with locally higher amounts 1 to 1.5 inches along and south of US 30. With the southern shift of the stalled boundary the flooding risk has decreased, but will likely see some rises to area rivers and creeks. Latest NASA SPoRT guidance keeps nearly all local creeks and streams below action stage. There may be enough instability Wednesday into Thursday for some thunderstorms to develop. The better potential for strong to severe storms will be over the weekend ahead of a cold front.

Temperatures will warm throughout the week with highs in the 40s today warming into the 60s Thursday and Friday. Highs in the 60s expected again on Saturday with some southeastern zones making a run at low 70s.

AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/

The main aviation weather concern with this 06z TAF update will be conditions deteriorating down to IFR and the potential for a few hours of light freezing rain through early Tuesday morning. The overall trend will be ceilings lowering IFR later through the early morning hours of Tuesday. Widespread IFR to some possible LIFR ceilings will be around for Tuesday and through the end of this TAF period. There will also be widespread areas of light fog/mist/drizzle causing visibility reduction of 2sm to 5sm early Tuesday morning through the late evening. Scattered light rain showers will move in late tonight through Tuesday. With the onset of the light rain showers could be some light freezing rain before temperatures warm up above the freezing mark. We have this potential mentioned in PROB30 groups for most of the TAFs into early Tuesday morning. Winds will start out easterly 5 to 10 knots before winds becoming southeasterly to southerly Tuesday morning. Wind will shift more westerly to northwesterly by the end for the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely continues into Tuesday night with rain showers or drizzle. Occasional periods of rain late Wednesday through Saturday will likely bring additional non-VFR conditions.

MARINE

Primarily light (15kt or less) east to northeast winds are expected through Wednesday evening across the lake. Ice will continue to want to drift west through Wednesday evening. Winds gradually shift more east and then south Wednesday night and Thursday as a warm front lifts towards and across Lake Erie. Winds then shift more south-southwest Friday into the weekend. A period of stronger southwesterly winds (to 20kt or so) is possible Friday or Saturday. The wind shift will cause ice to drift more north-northeasterly late week through the weekend.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ012>014-022-023. PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ002-003. MARINE...None.