textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread rain with breezy conditions today.

2) Slightly cooler Saturday with above normal temperatures Sunday through next week. Unsettled weather returns early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Rain showers will re-enter the forecast area this morning as a cold front moves southeast across the Ohio Valley today. Ahead of the frontal passage, southwesterly winds may occasionally gust to 25-30 mph late this morning through early this afternoon. The band of showers with some isolated embedded thunderstorms will exit the forecast area by 9 PM this evening. Overall, rainfall amounts will be around 0.25 inches with locally higher amounts up to 0.50 are possible across Northwest Pennsylvania.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Briefly cooler behind the aforementioned cold front tonight through Saturday night as high pressure builds overhead from the north. Low temperatures tonight and Saturday night settle in the mid 30s to low 40s. Highs on Saturday will rise into the low 50s along the lakeshore and mid to upper 50s south of the lake.

The high will push to the east on Sunday allowing for broad southwesterly flow to advect warm and moist air into the region. This will usher in daily afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s Sunday through late next week.

The pattern shift will also allow for a series of shortwaves to push across the Ohio Valley region bringing periods of showers and thunderstorms through next week. Will need to keep an eye on Tuesday night into Wednesday where organized convection may develop. SPC has clipped Northwest Ohio in their Severe Weather Outlook during that timeframe.

AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/

VFR is expected through early this morning before showers and non-VFR conditions arrive as a cold front moves southeast across the local area after about 14Z this morning. Guidance favors MVFR conditions in showers and lower clouds across the majority of the area later this morning into this evening, however visibilities and especially ceilings may fall to IFR at times during the day today, best chance at KERI and KYNG. Rain will exit to the southeast of the local area shortly after 00Z Saturday with ceilings slowly beginning to recover from the northwest tonight.

South/southwest winds will increase to 10 to 16 knots with gusts to 20 to 30 knots after daybreak this morning before winds shift to the northwest and diminish to about 10 knots behind the cold front this evening. Winds are expected to become more northerly and become light towards the end of the TAF period. A period of LLWS is likely as a LLJ to 40 to 50 knots moves over the area early this morning, but any LLWS potential will diminish as gusts begin to mix to the surface after sunrise.

Outlook...Occasional non-VFR conditions are likely in periodic showers and thunderstorms Sunday night through Tuesday.

MARINE

Southwest winds to 10 to 15 knots are expected this morning into early this afternoon before becoming onshore and diminishing to 10 knots or less behind a cold front this evening. Light and variable winds are anticipated Saturday with southeast winds increasing slightly during the day Sunday. By Sunday night, winds will become southwest and increase to 15 to 20 knots with similar flow continuing through Monday. Small Craft Advisories may be needed during this time, but conditions are marginal at this point. Periods of elevated southwest winds are likely through Tuesday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.