textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

There is higher confidence in a light coating of snow in NE OH and NW PA tonight. Otherwise, there are no major changes in the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Light snow is expected tonight with very limited impacts.

2) Warmer conditions with multiple periods of rain are expected Tuesday through next weekend. There could be increasing potential for nuisance flooding and increasing flow in area rivers and creeks.

DISCUSSION

1) A cold front is making its way through the forecast area this afternoon and temperatures will flat-line with peak heating this afternoon but should drop off significantly tonight. Meanwhile, there is some upper level support for some snow with snow reaching the ground in Wisconsin/Illinois and moving over Lake Michigan. This will spread east tonight and likely across much of the area. Most folks should at least see some flakes tonight. However, any meaningful coating would probably be in NE OH and NW PA with generally an inch or less. There shouldn't be too much impact with the snow given the timing and the warmer antecedent ground conditions from sunshine today and recent temperatures in the 40s and 50s.

2) Starting on Tuesday, a warm front will enter the region and bring a notable pattern change to the region. For starters, this front will allow for temperatures to surge back into the 50s on Tuesday with temperatures gradually warming into the 60s and even 70s by the end of the week, as strong warm sector builds over the region. More importantly though, this front will begin a wet pattern for the forecast area with multiple round of rain expected through the end of the week. All in all, the forecast area is looking at about 1 to 2 inches of rain through the week with periodic rain expected. Therefore, the flood risk is not very high at this point as there will be breaks that will allow for water to drain. In addition, some of the forecast area remains in a drought (particularly in NW OH) and could use some water to help restore soil moisture and low water levels on the rivers. Will need to monitor to see if there is a period that could overperform and allow for some nuisance flooding issues, especially in the urban areas or where soil moisture is higher with the recent melted snowpack. There could be some thunder chances on Wednesday with a more potent shortwave moving through the region, but the thermodynamics appear poor for anything more than thunder right now as this system will move through the area late on Wednesday.

AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/

VFR will prevail this afternoon and evening, but a weak clipper is still on track to bring light snow tonight leading to MVFR conditions, with some periods of IFR in briefly heavier snow too. This system has trended a little faster, so shifted the start times of snow in the TAFs up by an hour or two. The snow will progress across the region fairly rapidly from west to east tonight. Confidence is highest in MVFR impacts, with the IFR being lower confidence hence the continued PROB30 groups. The best potential for periods of IFR is at KCLE, KMFD, KCAK, KYNG, and KERI. The snow will taper off early Sunday morning, with conditions gradually improving to VFR by late morning or early afternoon as high pressure builds in.

NNW winds of 10-20 knots this afternoon will gradually become NE and decrease to 5-15 knots this evening through tonight. NE winds will average 10-20 knots Sunday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in snow again Sunday night into Monday, mainly along and south of US-30. Periods of non- VFR conditions are possible throughout next week as an active pattern becomes established.

MARINE

Stronger N flow developing behind a cold front the rest of the afternoon will turn NE at 10-20 knots tonight, diminishing to 5-10 knots by late Sunday. Winds then turn E at 5-10 knots Sunday night and Monday as high pressure strengthens over the Lower Great Lakes before becoming SW and increasing to 10-15 knots Tuesday as a warm front lifts to near Lake Erie. Winds will then fluctuate between N and S through Thursday as the front wavers over the southern Great Lakes in response to a series of low pressure systems tracking along it.

The frequent wind shifts through next week and return to mild temperatures after the Sunday and Monday cold will continue to cause the remaining ice to shift around and decay. This could pose some hazards to shipping lanes.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.