textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Not much has changed. Main chances for rain over the next week are tonight, late Friday into early Saturday, and Monday into Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and perhaps some thunder are likely tonight, with a few afternoon showers/storms possible towards central Ohio on Wednesday. The concern for heavy rain and/or severe weather is very low.

2) The next round of rain is favored late Friday into Saturday, again with minimal concerns for severe weather and/or flooding.

3) Unsettled weather returns Monday and Tuesday of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

A low-amplitude shortwave will dive east-southeast across the region tonight, pulling a weak cold front across the local area Wednesday morning. The front will stall just south-southwest of our forecast area Wednesday afternoon as weak high pressure builds in locally.

Synoptic lift along and ahead of the shortwave and approaching front will interact with a modest pool of elevated instability (<500 J/KG of MUCAPE) to bring scattered to numerous showers to the area late this evening into the overnight tonight, quickly settling to the east-southeast by early Wednesday. There should be enough elevated instability for some rumbles of thunder tonight, but severe weather and/or flooding are not concerns. The front will stall very close to our southwestern counties Wednesday afternoon, and as instability builds isolated to scattered showers/thunder will likely re-develop along it. Most of our area will remain dry as light winds turn off of Lake Erie, leading to a cooler/more stable environment. However, a low shower/thunder chance is evident across our southwestern counties Wednesday afternoon. There is again a minimal to nil severe weather risk. Slow storm motion could allow a couple of spots to see an inch of rain in our far southwest late Wednesday, though this would be quite isolated and the risk for flooding is also minimal.

It will be much milder tonight, with lows mainly settling into the 50s. Highs on Wednesday will range from the 60s closer to the lake in Northeast OH and Northwest PA to the mid 70s along I-75 and across our southern counties towards central OH. Lows will range from the 40s east to the low-mid 50s in our southwest Wednesday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

An Omega Block type pattern will develop across much of central and eastern North America the second half of this week as closed lows aloft park over the northern Rockies and over the Canadian Maritimes, with ridging in between. A flat shortwave and associated weak surface low is expected to work east across the region late Friday into Saturday. This will slowly lift our stalled front back northeast late Thursday into early Friday as a warm front, followed by a cold front Friday night into Saturday. While a stray shower can't be ruled out with the lifting warm front Thursday afternoon through Friday morning, most of the area will remain rain-free until greater rain chances arrive from the west ahead of the approaching cold front later Friday and Friday night. Greatest rain chances are Friday night into early Saturday, diminishing from west to east through the day Saturday. Given the blocking pattern the system will be slow moving, and it is possible Saturday is a rather damp day across at least the eastern half or so of the area. There is not much concern for severe weather or flooding with this system, though with the slow-moving nature of the system and what will likely be at least some weak convective component to the rain it's possible portions of the area see locally over an inch of rain from late Friday into Saturday.

Aside from perhaps the eastern lakeshore, much of the area is expected to push well into the 70s for highs Thursday and Friday with seasonably mild overnight lows mainly in the 50s, with perhaps some 40s across our eastern counties. Saturday will be a cooler day with highs expected to range from the upper 50s to mid 60s (warmer west).

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A period of drier weather is likely Saturday night through Sunday night as high pressure briefly slides across the area. The blocking pattern breaks down early next week as a shortwave ejects into the central Plains on Monday and lifts east-northeast into the Great Lakes Tuesday. This will bring renewed chances for rain to the area. Heavy rain and/or severe weather potential are uncertain this far out, though the dynamics do appear at least somewhat supportive.

AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

A cold front continues to meander southeast into the area this evening, bringing with it an area of light rain showers. These showers will impact NW OH first before slowly spreading southeast through the area. There is a non-zero potential for thunder, so opted to handle the scattered convection with TEMPOs. By 08Z Wednesday, all showers should depart to the east, allowing for dry conditions to build in. Post-frontal low ceilings are possible with ceilings of 2-3kft developing for a period late tonight into Wednesday morning. As increasing mixing occurs on Wednesday, ceilings should once again lift and allow for VFR conditions to return.

Southwest winds this evening of 10-12 knots will continue to produce periodic wind gusts up to 20 knots into the early overnight hours. As the cold front moves southeast, winds will gradually back to northwesterly and begin to weaken, eventually becoming light and variable by the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and storms Friday and Saturday.

MARINE

Southerly elevated flow 12-18 knots this afternoon will gradually turn northwesterly through Wednesday morning as a cold front moves south across the lake. Onshore winds should remain light with wave heights remaining 2 feet or less. Light and variable flow is expected under high pressure Wednesday night into Thursday before the high exits to the east Thursday night. Low pressure approaches the region from the west Friday and Saturday allowing easterly to northeasterly flow to increase to 10-15 knots ahead of the system on Friday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.