textproduct: Cleveland

SYNOPSIS

Low pressure moves across the eastern Great Lakes today and will drag a cold front across the local area this evening into Thursday. Weak ridge of high pressure will build into the region from the west on Thursday and persist through the weekend. A weak low will track across the eastern Great Lakes early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

700AM Update... Updated the forecast to include a brief period of FZDZ this morning. Locations in western and central Ohio have reported periods of freezing drizzle and, though isolated in northern Ohio, will continue to be possible through mid-morning.

Previous Discussion... Active winter weather continues through the duration of the near term with winter weather headlines in effect across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through Thursday and Thursday evening. Headlines remain unchanged with this forecast update.

Two initial areas of snowfall to focus on in the immediate term the first being a weak clipper system tracking across the region. Areawide light snowfall between 1 and 2 inches is expected through this morning with this system. The weak clipper will allow for lingering lake effect snow showers to focus in on the lakeshore from Lake County OH east into northern Erie County PA early this morning and continue through much of the day today. Snowfall amounts along the lake shore through this afternoon range between 5 and 8 inches. Periods of moderate to heavy snow will be possible this afternoon across northern Erie County PA where HREF guidance hints at snowfall rates of 1"/hr. Given the long- fetch single band along the lakeshore under westerly flow, there will be a sharp snow gradient with locations south of the main band receiving a significantly lower amount of snowfall.

A stronger clipper and cold front will sink south across the region late this afternoon/early evening. Another glancing blow of 1 to 3 inches of snowfall is expected outside of the Snowbelt with this system this afternoon and evening. An additional 5 to 10 inches of snow is expected in the snowbelt. Highest amounts likely across the higher terrain of Northwest Pennsylvania where a Lake Huron connection is expected to develop. Additionally, there continues to be a concern for snow squalls this afternoon and evening. The threat for squalls exists across the entire region though the highest chance will be across portions of Northern Ohio, Northeast Ohio, and Northwest Pennsylvania. Snow squalls can result in brief whiteouts and rapidly deteriorating road conditions. Snowfall rates may reach 1-2 inches/hr at times this evening. Lake effect will gradually diminish across much of the Snowbelt through the day on Thursday as a narrow ridge of high pressure dries out low levels.

Highs in the upper 20s today ahead of the cold front. Much cooler tonight behind the cold front with lows in the single digits to low 10s. Sub-zero wind chills will be likely across much of the region Thursday morning. Highs on Thursday will remain cool in the upper teens to lower 20s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Some lingering lake effect snowfall may continue across Northwest Pennsylvania through Friday as an upper trough digs across western NY. However, expect greatest snowfall accumulations to occur closer to the trough axis across western NY. Dry weather is expected outside of any lingering lake effect snow showers as high pressure remains overhead. Remaining chilly with lows each night in the teens and wind chills in the single digits. High temperatures on Friday and Saturday remain in the mid 20s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Slight chance to chance PoPs return Sunday night through Tuesday downwind of Lake Erie as a weak area of low pressure moves through the Great Lakes region. Highs in the upper 20s on Sunday will warm into the mid 30s by Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Across the region ceilings are primarily MVFR with some sites in western Ohio dropping down to IFR. Snow showers can still be see across the majority of sites though have largely slowed and impacts are not as great. Outside of KERI and possibly KCLE, sites should see a lull in the snow showers during the day today before picking up again this afternoon as a cold front moves across the region. With this cold front conditions will drop down to IFR as it moves through. There is potential for sites, mainly in eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania that could drop down to LIFR visibilities in possible snow squalls. Behind the cold front, conditions should begin to improve. Only KERI will continue to see snow through the TAF period, elsewhere, visibilities will improve around 07-09Z. Winds currently are out of the west between 6-12 knots across the region but will increase ahead of the front and for a period afterwards. During this time, winds will shift to be briefly out of the northwest at 15-20 knots and gusting around 25 knots. They will back to being more westerly and weaken to around 10-15 knots towards the end of the TAF period. KERI will still see elevated winds through the TAF period and see winds gusting around 30 knots this afternoon with the front.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions expected across the region today through Thursday evening. Prolonged non-VFR conditions likely across the snow belt due to lake effect snow into Saturday.

MARINE

Conditions will continue to improve across Lake Erie through this afternoon. In the western basin, the Small Craft Advisory will be allowed to expire at 4AM with winds decreasing to 10 to 15 knots and waves diminishing to around 2 feet. For the rest of the lake, the Small Craft Advisory remains valid and will be extended through 09Z Saturday morning when winds and waves will begin to diminish below criteria. Until then, winds will generally be out of the west and stay at 15 to 25 knots. There's a short time period starting this evening through midnight tonight where winds will increase to 20 to 25 knots across the central and western basin. As a result, waves will build back up around 7 to 9 feet before beginning to diminish Thursday morning. There is about a period tonight where in the western basin winds could reach Small Craft criteria, though confidence is low in that time period being long enough to warrant an issuance of an advisory.

Afterwards, winds will begin to weaken through the remainder of the weak and waves will diminish as well across Lake Erie. High pressure will build into the region to start this weekend and quiet conditions are expected.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Thursday for OHZ010-020>023-031>033. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for OHZ011. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST Thursday for OHZ012>014-089. PA...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for PAZ001>003. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LEZ145>149.