textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant forecast changes were made with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cooler with periods of lake effect rain showers today into tonight.

2) Turning milder into next week with unsettled weather returning late next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... An upper level trough is currently over the eastern Great Lakes this morning. Scattered lake effect rain showers will be around today into this evening, mainly impacting the Snowbelt region of northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. High temperatures will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s. Skies will start to clear from the west to east late tonight into early Sunday morning. Temperatures will drop tonight into the 30s away from the immediate lakeshore.

KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will start to build into the Ohio Valley Sunday and remain through mid week. Mainly dry and milder weather will be expected for the first half of next week. Another upper trough will dig south into the region later in the week. There is the potential for unsettled weather to return at some point later next week and colder weather.

AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/

Mainly VFR across the TAF sites this evening with deterioration to MVFR and isolated pockets of IFR possible in low ceilings and lake effect rain showers late tonight through Saturday. Highest confidence for IFR conditions will be across the eastern TAF sites through Saturday morning, mainly impacting CAK/YNG/ERI. Conditions will gradually improve to low-end VFR from west to east by late Saturday afternoon.

Winds are generally out of the west this evening, 5 to 10 knots. Winds will shift and increase out of the west to northwest behind a trough late tonight into Saturday, 10 to 12 knots with periodic gusts of 20 to 22 knots possible.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain showers and low ceilings Sunday into Monday. Otherwise, mostly VFR conditions are expected.

MARINE

Northwest winds remain elevated at 15-25 knots today. Winds will turn southwesterly 15-25 knots tonight into Sunday. Another cold front will move across the lake Sunday night with northwest winds at 20-25 knots. Wave heights through this weekend will largely range between 4-8 feet, primarily east of The Islands. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all nearshore zones through the weekend, except the western basin which expires at 10 AM Saturday morning. Surface high pressure builds overhead early next week which will allow for winds to decrease below small craft criteria.

There is also a risk of waterspouts today into this evening given the cold air aloft and potential for persistent lake effect showers.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ142>144. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LEZ145>149.