textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No changes ere needed with this update as the forecast remains on track for the cold front moving through the area tonight into Friday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A strong cold front will sink southeast across the area tonight into Friday bringing the chance for widespread showers.

2) Fall returns late Friday and persists into next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A warm front has lifted north of the area today, allowing for temperatures to climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s with dewpoints increasing into the 60s. These conditions will prime the area for widespread shower development ahead and along a cold front that is expected to sag southeast across the area tonight into Friday. This robust surface front will be enhanced with strong mid- and upper-level energy as a trough extends across much of the contiguous US. A strong upper level jet pushing over the region coupled with mid-level vort max will be the primary synoptic forcing with strong low-level frontogenetic forcing. The showers should develop into a line and push east overnight resulting in a widespread 0.5 to 1 inch of precipitation. Given the dry conditions recently, no flooding is expected. In addition, the thunderstorm potential remains low given the unfavorable timing, but cannot be ruled out given the strong synoptic forcing. Finally, gusty southwest winds ahead of the front will back to northwesterly behind the front. This strong boundary will result in highs only climbing into the low to mid 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Behind the departing cold front on Friday, a Canadian high pressure will push east over the Great Lakes region and bring with it much cooler temperatures and dry conditions. There is expected to be a weak cold front pushing east on Sunday, however limited forcing and moisture should keep conditions dry across the area. On Monday, a dominant high returns and will persist into at least the middle of the week. This pattern will allow for dry conditions beginning Friday night to persist into the middle of next week. High temperatures will climb into the 60s before some highs in the 50s creep into NWPA early next week. Overnight lows will be in the upper 30s to low 40s. May need to monitor for the potential of frost next week.

AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/

VFR conditions will deteriorate to IFR as steady rain showers push eastward across terminals tonight into Friday morning. Latest HREF and GLAMP guidance continues to show high confidence in IFR ceilings with the frontal passage. Visibilites will also fall to MVFR in rain showers. Southerly to southwesterly winds 8-12 knots this afternoon and evening will shift northwesterly behind the cold front remaining between 8-12 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with rain showers and lower ceilings behind a cold front late tonight through late Friday morning.

MARINE

Southwest winds of 10-15 knots this afternoon will quickly shift to north-northwesterly behind a cold front that will sag south across the lake tonight. With this frontal passage, winds are expected to increase to 15-20 knots and persist into Friday night. Given onshore flow, waves across the central basin are expected to climb to 3-5 feet. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for tonight into early Friday morning. Behind this cold front, high pressure will briefly build over the region allowing for a calm period of conditions before a weak cold front moves east on Sunday. With this second cold front, winds will once again increase from the north- northwest at 15-20 knots and will likely build waves in excess of 4 feet across the southern lakeshore beginning Sunday night into Monday. An additional short-fused Small Craft Advisory may be needed during this period as well. By Monday night into Tuesday, high pressure will become well established across the area and should allow for calmer marine conditions to return.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Friday for LEZ144>148.