textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

PoPs and QPF have trended further north for tonight, resulting in an increased risk of heavy rainfall in the southern half of the area. Shower/thunderstorm chances are also increasing for Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through tonight, with the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding possible in the southern half of the area tonight.

2) An unsettled weather pattern returns this weekend with periods of showers and thunderstorms likely.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front will ever so slowly work south into the region, then slow its forward progression this afternoon. More widespread showers and storms are advertised to arrive tonight as deeper moisture moves into the area. 12Z CAMs have shift a bit further north with the greatest potential for showers and storms across the southern half but there still is some uncertainty. For now, will stick with previous thinking with the highest QPF axis and moderate to heavy rainfall generally south of US-30 this evening into early Thursday morning as PWATs increase to nearly 2 inches. The main concern overnight will be training of the showers/storms as they move west to east parallel to the frontal boundary. Soils are saturated in the southern part of the area after recent heavy rainfall so it won't take much to flood if heavy rainfall does materialize in the local area. WPC has placed our area in a Slight ERO (Level 2 of 4) to account for the northward shift in heavy rainfall potential.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Dry weather is expected as high pressure builds into the region Thursday night through Friday, but unsettled weather will return to the region over the weekend as a series of upper troughs push across the Great Lakes. The most widespread showers and thunderstorms will likely occur Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening as the first upper trough moves east across the area. The region will be in the warm sector so there will be plenty of moisture and likely sufficient instability to warrant at least an isolated severe weather threat, but confidence in the exact timing and placement of storms remains relatively low this far out. Will need to continue to monitor the severe weather potential in the coming days. Additional showers and storms are likely across NE OH and NW PA as the secondary trough pushes across the region Sunday, although it's likely that precip associated with this feature will be lake-enhanced.

AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/

A cold front will stall in the vicinity of US-30 overnight tonight into Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible during this timeframe, mainly across the southern half of terminals. Have TEMPOs for -SHRA/-TSRA impacts and PROB30 for northern TAF sites where confidence in non-VFR impacts from SHRA is lower. Some isolated BR may develop in the wake of the stalled front leading to IFR/MVFR conditions across southern terminals through daybreak. VFR will return late Thursday morning through the TAF period.

Northwest to west winds turn light and variable overnight tonight. Winds shift northerly by Thursday morning.

Outlook...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on Saturday. Showers and storms will become focused along the lakeshore areas of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Saturday night. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible east of I-77 on Sunday.

MARINE

North winds 5-10 knots will become light and variable overnight tonight. Winds turn northeasterly at 5-15 knots early Thursday morning before decreasing and turning offshore as high pressure builds overhead Thursday evening. Low pressure moves into the Great Lakes region on Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will be likely during the afternoon and evening. Southwest winds 10-15 knots on Saturday will shift northwest by Sunday behind a passing cold front. Wave heights may build to 2-4 feet Saturday night into Sunday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.