textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased lake effect PoPs downwind of Lake Erie this weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cooler with periods of lake effect showers through the weekend.

2) Turning milder next week with unsettled weather returning late next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Upper level low pressure will dive southeast across the Lower Great Lakes region tonight through Saturday. At the surface, a cold front has swept east across the local forecast area this morning leaving gusty northwest flow in its wake. Anticipate for a period of scattered lake effect rain showers to continue across the traditional snowbelt through Saturday night. Lake effect showers will briefly exit Saturday night into Sunday morning as a ridge of high pressure builds overhead from the southwest. Another upper level shortwave will dive southeast across the eastern Great Lakes Sunday into Monday with lake effect showers downwind of Lake Erie in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Additionally, it will remain gusty through the weekend with northwesterly winds gusting to 25-30 MPH on Saturday and southwesterly to westerly winds gusting up to 35 MPH on Sunday.

Remaining cooler this weekend with low temperatures tonight through Sunday falling into the low to mid 30s. High temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s on Saturday will warm into the mid to upper 50s by Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... The first half of next week looks mainly dry and mild as surface high pressure remains across the Ohio Valley. Another upper trough will dig south into the region later in the week. However, current medium range models have some differences in exact timing. For now, expect for unsettled weather to return at some point later next week.

AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/

A cold front continues to work its way eastward across the area this afternoon, with light showers and MVFR ceilings east of I-77 right now. A brief period of mostly VFR is expected as the cold front sweeps through (we're already seeing this approximately west of I-77) though widespread MVFR ceilings will fill back in, along with rain showers in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania tonight. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible at times 09-18Z Saturday, mainly at and near KYNG and KERI, which could could bring IFR conditions at times with visibility and ceilings.

West-northwest winds around 10-12 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots during this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon, subsiding to around 6-10 knots overnight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with rain showers in far Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Otherwise, mostly VFR conditions are expected.

MARINE

Northwest winds remain elevated at 15-20 knots this afternoon and will increase to 20-25 knots tonight. Northwest winds 15-25 knots on Saturday will turn southwesterly Saturday night into Sunday. Winds may briefly touch 25-30 knots Another cold front will swing across the lake Sunday night which will allow for winds to return northwesterly at 20-25 knots. Wave heights through this weekend will largely range between 4-8 feet, primarily east of The Islands. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all nearshore zones through the weekend, except the western basin which expires at 10 AM Saturday morning. Surface high pressure builds overhead early next week which will allow for winds to decrease below small craft criteria.

There is also a risk of waterspouts through the weekend given the cold air aloft and potential for persistent lake effect showers.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for LEZ142>144. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LEZ145>148. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LEZ149.