textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers continue to exit through this evening, leaving a period of dry and pleasant weather through Wednesday.

2) Potential for showers and thunderstorms returns Wednesday night into Thursday ahead of a cold front.

3) Intermittent potential for rain this weekend into early next week, with a gradual warming trend beginning on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Weak low pressure over the Upper Ohio Valley this afternoon will transfer to off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight into Tuesday, with high pressure building into the Great Lakes for Tuesday and Wednesday. We will continue to gradually dry out through this evening, though may not see significant clearing until later tonight into early Tuesday from west to east. Tuesday and Wednesday will be dry and pleasant, though with potential for some radiation fog Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A low amplitude shortwave trough and associated weak low pressure will track through the Great Lakes Wednesday night and Thursday. This will lift a warm front across the local area late Wednesday night/early Thursday, followed quickly by a cold front Thursday afternoon and evening.

Potential for showers and perhaps a bit of thunder spread in from the west Wednesday night ahead of the approaching warm front. There will be some support in the form of the exit region of an incoming jet streak and modest low to mid-level warm air advection ahead of the approaching shortwave trough, with a bit of elevated instability trying to advect in from the west. So, not expecting a particularly widespread or heavy rain Wednesday night or early Thursday but there's enough to have a chance mentioned. The cold front is favored to cross Thursday afternoon or early evening. Models exhibit some disagreement regarding the exact timing of the frontal passage and amount of forcing for ascent with the shortwave passing just to our north on Thursday and exiting to the east later in the day. However, the frontal timing during peak heating hours supports another round of at least scattered showers and storms from roughly Sandusky to Marion points east Thursday afternoon and early evening. Mid-level lapse rates will likely be modest, though sufficient heating could allow moderate instability to develop with moderate deep-layer shear. Overall, we are eying Thursday afternoon and evening for another round of at least scattered convection across parts of our area. Some potential for severe weather may pan out, especially if the front is slow enough to allow for convection to develop and begin maturing across central and eastern portions of our area.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Thursday's front will likely settle into the Ohio Valley by Friday morning, and will waiver just to our south through the weekend and early next week. While high pressure over the Northeast will try to keep us rain-free, waves tracking along the front may lift it back far enough north at times to bring rain potential, especially farther south across our area. Ridging aloft gradually starts building from the central and into the eastern U.S. by early next week, signaling what should be a gradual but more prolonged warming trend.

AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/

Mixed-bag of MVFR and IFR across the TAF sites this afternoon, mainly associated with low ceilings, though some lower vsbys will remain possible in rain showers over the next couple of hours, primarily east of the I-71 corridor. Can't rule out a few rumbles of thunder, but the overall chances are low. Otherwise, ceilings will gradually lift to VFR through this evening from west to east. Attention then turns towards tonight into Tuesday morning, particularly along and east of the I-77 corridor where an area of IFR ceilings and mist/fog will develop. A few pockets of LIFR ceilings cannot be ruled out, especially at CAK/YNG/ERI and may be added in future TAF updates. Conditions will gradually improve to VFR through Tuesday morning.

Winds are generally out of the north to northeast this afternoon, 8 to 12 knots. Winds will remain out of the north to northeast through the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday, and again on Friday night into Saturday.

MARINE

Rough marine conditions continue across the central and eastern basin of Lake Erie into this evening, with waves remaining in the 3 to 4-foot range and thus will keep the current headlines in place. Marine conditions will gradually improve through this evening as north to northeast winds subside to around 10 knots overnight. For the week ahead, generally quiet marine conditions are expected with periods of light, onshore flow of 10 knots or less expected through Wednesday. Winds will briefly become south to southwest on Thursday, 10 to 15 knots, before shifting back to the northwest behind a cold front on Friday, around 10 knots.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for OHZ010>012-089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ145>149.