textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periods of unsettled weather with showers and thunderstorms possible tonight through Sunday and again late Tuesday into Wednesday.

2) Warmer weather expected Sunday into mid-week with near record highs possible early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... It will remain unsettled across the region tonight through Sunday as a series of shortwaves will move overhead. Ongoing showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to push east across the forecast are through this evening giving way to a brief period of dry weather tonight. Hi- res models are having a fairly difficult time with precipitation chances tomorrow as another shortwave moves overhead. For now, stuck with slight chance to chance PoPs in the forecast Sunday afternoon and early evening to account for any isolated showers/thunderstorms that may develop along a warm front.

Precipitation chances will return late Tuesday through Wednesday as a strong cold front swings east. Some prefrontal showers and storms will be possible during the day on Tuesday with more widespread precipitation chances along the cold front. Expect for temperatures behind the cold front on Wednesday and Thursday to fall roughly 10- 15 degrees.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Broad southwesterly to southerly flow will usher in much warmer conditions to end the weekend and begin early next week. Highs warm into the upper 80s areawide on Monday and mid 80s by Tuesday. Temperatures through the first half of May have been below average which will likely lead to this quick hit of heat to feel noticeably warm. Peak heat index values will range between the upper 80s to lower 90s. Take steps to reduce time in the sun during the warmest part of the day and remain hydrated.

AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/

A little patchy fog with MVFR visibilities is possible at MFD/CAK/YNG early in the period before cirrus thickens overnight so expecting the fog to be brief. After that expecting primarily VFR conditions through the period with the exception being if a shower or thunderstorm impacts an airport. Coverage of any precipitation is expected to be low today and did not include in any of the tafs. If probabilities of precipitation increase may need to add to a terminal for an hour or two this afternoon. Otherwise, most sites will have a VFR sct-bkn cloud deck of 3500-5000 feet between 17-21Z. A warm front lifts north tonight with clearing skies.

Winds will be southwesterly at 5-10 knots overnight with western terminals more likely to see some gusts of 18-20 knots between 17-21Z. ERI also seems likely to see a wind shift off the lake at 280-290 degrees for the afternoon and include this lake breeze. Winds will drop below 10 knots again tonight and back to southerly.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in isolated showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening, though chances are lower. Non-VFR likely at times in showers/thunderstorms late Tuesday into Wednesday.

MARINE

Light southwest winds today will back to southeasterly at 10-15 knots tonight. Southwesterly winds on Monday increase to 10-20 knots on the western half of the lake. Winds may ramp up just a little more on Tuesday ahead of a cold front and will need to monitor the need for a Small Craft Advisory. The offshore flow will keep the higher waves over the open waters on Tuesday with winds decreasing as the flow shifts to northwesterly behind the front on Wednesday. Conditions will be somewhat choppy with 2-4 foot waves Wednesday night into Thursday with northeasterly flow ahead of high pressure building to the north.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.