textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for portions of Northwest and North-Central Ohio until 8 PM, mainly for damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. A Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of North-Central and Northeast Ohio into Wednesday morning as torrential rainfall and isolated flash flooding also remain possible.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected through Thursday night. The greatest potential for strong to severe storms and isolated flooding will be this afternoon and evening across portions of Northwest and North-Central Ohio.

2) Unsettled weather will return Saturday night through Sunday as a low pressure systems brings another round of showers and storms to the area.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... The latest radar and satellite imagery reveal a loosely- organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms moving east into portions of Northwest and North-Central Ohio this afternoon. For the most part, peak wind gusts within this cluster are generally below 50 mph and non-severe, supported by weak MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg and gradually warming cloud tops, though isolated severe wind gusts of 55 to 60 mph will remain possible into this evening given the strong shear in place, especially across the Severe Thunderstorm Watch area which is in place until 8 PM. Otherwise, main concern will be the moderate to heavy rain associated with the stratiform convection approaching the area, with radar estimating rates in excess of 2 inches per hour which could result in minor/nuisance flooding given the already- saturated ground across much of the area. A Flood Watch remains in effect into Wednesday morning. Showers and storms should exit east of the area by around 10/11 PM, with some patches of fog possible overnight.

The next chance for showers and thunderstorms appears to be Wednesday night into Thursday as a weak trough slides south across the area. Not anticipating anything severe, though could see a few stronger storms with small hail or wind gusts approaching 50 mph, especially across Northeast Ohio. This trough is expected to stall near or just south of the US-30 corridor Thursday afternoon or evening. Another wave of low pressure will move east along this boundary Thursday night, with heavy rain being the primary concern. There remains some uncertainty with the boundary placement (could be further south) and therefore the flooding threat.

KEY MESSAGE 2... The next period for unsettled weather will be Saturday night into Sunday as a low pressure system moves east through the Great Lakes, extending a cold front across the area Sunday night. Will continue to monitor the threat for any stronger storms, especially Sunday afternoon with the latest guidance suggesting a potent 700 mb shortwave of 30 to 35 knots entering the area.

AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

The majority of the precipitation has exited to the east of the area. Showers may periodically clip portions of the area through Wednesday, although the vast majority of precip should stay to the south/southwest of the area through the TAF period. Will leave any precip mention out of the TAFs for the time being due to low confidence in placement/coverage. VFR conditions are expected through the rest of this evening before areas of fog and low stratus develop with light winds and residual low level moisture near 06Z tonight into Tuesday morning. Widespread MVFR is expected with areas of IFR and briefly LIFR conditions likely in spots. Conditions will improve after 12Z and generally expect VFR through the rest of the TAF period.

Winds will be light and variable overnight before becoming more westerly at 10 knots or less during the day Wednesday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Thursday night. Non- VFR possible again in showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into Sunday.

MARINE

Showers and thunderstorms are possible across Lake Erie this afternoon and evening as a feature moves south of the lake. Strong winds and frequent lightning is possible as this moves through. Conditions will improve late this evening and winds will be generally out of the southwest at 5-10 knots. By late Thursday night into Friday morning, winds will shift to be out of the north- northeast at around 10-15 knots. A warm front will lift north across the lake late Saturday evening and winds will shift to be out of the south-southeast at 10-15 knots. A cold front will follow Sunday night and winds will shift to be out of the northwest at 10-15 knots. Waves through the week will generally be less than 2 feet through Thursday evening, then building to around 1-3 feet through the weekend.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for OHZ003-006>011- 017>021-027>032-036>038-047. PA...None. MARINE...None.