textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes from previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above average temperatures expected through Friday with seasonal temperatures this weekend into early next week.

2) Series of low pressure system will pass through the region through the weekend bringing rain showers on Wednesday and Thursday night, and possible snow showers this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Temperatures through Friday will remain above average due to upper level ridging over the eastern CONUS and persistent west to southwesterly flow over the region. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week with high probability of temperatures hitting the low to mid 60s during the day. This will be in part due to a warm front moving south to north across the area ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Temperatures will moderate slightly behind the low and rain showers on Wednesday, but highs will stay above average in the 50s. Another low pressure system will pass through the Great Lakes region on Friday sweeping a cold front that will drop temperatures to be more seasonal. Highs will be in the 40s on Saturday before dropping into the 30s for Sunday and for the start of next week.

Additional impacts include potential ice jams along rivers and streams throughout the region. Accompanied by the rain showers on Wednesday, there is a possibility of seeing a minor river response as frozen rivers begin to deteriorate and break apart. Will continue to monitor the rivers over the next few days for potential flooding concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Rain showers return to the region on Wednesday as a low pressure system enters into the western Great Lakes. A warm front will lift north through the region Wednesday morning followed by a weak cold front Wednesday afternoon into the evening. There is higher probability of rain showers along the warm front as it pushes into the northern portion of the CWA as that will be where the strongest frontogenesis will be. The cold front will enter from the west in the afternoon and bring more widespread potential for rainfall. Generally, QPF is around a 0.10" to 0.20" for the majority of the area. The highest amounts will be in northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania as they could see 0.30" to 0.40". There will be a minor amounts of CAPE (250-400 J/kg) with this system so can't rule out the possibility of a rumble of thunder or two during the afternoon. Winds will be gusty during the day supported by a 40-50 knot LLJ across the region. Gusts will be around 30 to 40mph with the strongest winds expected in western Ohio during the afternoon with frontal passage.

Another chance for precipitation will be Thursday evening into Friday as another low moves northeast from the mid-Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes. Rain showers will begin late Thursday evening as a warm front passes through and will be followed quickly by the cold front. Any precipitation should end by Friday afternoon/early evening. As colder air moves in behind the system, any lingering rain showers will change over to a rain snow mix, then over to snow completely later in the evening given that precipitation is still occurring. Snow chances will return again on Sunday as an upper level low moves through the Great Lakes region with possible lake enhanced snow showers behind the system to begin next week.

AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/

The morning fog and low stratus has lifted for most of northern Ohio. There are still some lingering MVFR ceilings and light fog around ERI at of midday. Going forward for this afternoon, mainly VFR conditions are expected. A warm front will lift across the area later tonight. Low stratus and some light fog will redevelop after 06z through Wednesday morning. Ceilings will drop back to lower end MVFR to IFR by early Wednesday morning. Light fog and some drizzle will cause visibility to lower to 2sm to 5sm. Areas of light rain and drizzle will impact TAF sites late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Winds will generally start out from the south 5 to 10 knots this afternoon into tonight. By late Wednesday morning or midday, winds will become southwesterly 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions possible Wednesday and Thursday night into Friday in rain showers.

MARINE

The main concerns for marine weather will be ice on the lake breaking up and shifting around due to stronger winds over the several days. Lake Erie remains ice covered. Winds will become northeasterly this afternoon 5 to 10 knots. Easterly winds increase to 10-20 knots tonight, then veer to southwesterly at 15-25 knots on Wednesday as a warm front lifts north across Lake Erie. There will be another time period of elevated winds expected Thursday night into Friday as easterly winds of 15-20 knots become southwesterly at 20-25 knots with the passage of a surface front.

Multiple periods with elevated winds along with much above normal temperatures across the region this week will continue to rot the lake ice with ice floes are expected. Shore ice may break off and any available shipping channels may be closed. It is important for people to stay off the ice this week or risk getting stranded. In addition, the warmer air overspreading the cold lake will result in areas of fog this afternoon and on Wednesday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.