textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

PoPs and QPF have trended further north for tonight, resulting in an increased risk of heavy rainfall in the southern half of the area. Shower/thunderstorm chances are also increasing for Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms likely today and tonight. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding possible in the southern half of the area tonight.

2) An unsettled weather pattern returns this weekend with periods of showers and thunderstorms likely.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front will meander south/southeast towards the area today, resulting in chances of scattered showers and storms across the area during the day today. At this point, instability will likely be too low for severe weather concerns. More widespread rain will arrive overnight the front pushes south and better moisture moves into the area, but there is still some uncertainty in how far north the showers will be and where the heaviest rain will occur. Recent CAMs have shifted significantly farther north with the highest QPF axis, and moderate to heavy rainfall is possible generally south of US-30 this evening into early Thursday morning as PWATs increase to nearly 2 inches. There are also concerns for training as showers/storms move west to east parallel to the frontal boundary. Soils are saturated in the southern part of the area after recent heavy rainfall so it won't take much to flood if heavy rainfall does materialize in the local area. Will need to keep an eye on guidance trends over the next forecast cycle. WPC has introduced a Slight ERO (Level 2 of 4) to the southern half of the area to account for the northward shift in heavy rainfall potential.

The pace of the front has slowed considerably and scattered showers remain possible in the southeastern half of the area through late Thursday morning and possibly as late as Thursday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Dry weather is expected as high pressure builds into the region Thursday night through Friday, but unsettled weather will return to the region over the weekend as a series of upper troughs push across the Great Lakes. The most widespread showers and thunderstorms will likely occur Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening as the first upper trough moves east across the area. The region will be in the warm sector so there will be plenty of moisture and likely sufficient instability to warrant at least an isolated severe weather threat, but confidence in the exact timing and placement of storms remains relatively low this far out. Will need to continue to monitor the severe weather potential in the coming days. Additional showers and storms are likely across NE OH and NW PA as the secondary trough pushes across the region Sunday, although it's likely that precip associated with this feature will be lake-enhanced.

AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

A cold front will bring light, scattered rain showers this morning, with largely VFR conditions expected. Brief periods of MVFR ceilings will be possible, with and for a couple hours behind the departing showers later this morning into the early afternoon.

The cold front stalls over the area, and additional showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening into tonight mainly along and south of US-30, though it's possible they could extend farther north (there's some uncertainty in this regard). For now, highest confidence is along our southern TAF sites (including KFDY, KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG). Non-VFR will mainly occur with lower visibility in heavier showers/storms.

Outlook...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected areawide on Saturday, before becoming more focused along the lakeshore areas of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Saturday night. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible east of I-77 on Sunday.

MARINE

Conditions across Lake Erie will remain fairly quiet as winds with be out of the west to northwest at 5 to 10 knots this evening, then increasing to 10 to 15 knots overnight into Wednesday morning. Waves will be choppy, though the highest waves 2 to 4 feet will stay in the open waters with the near shore seeing 2 feet or less. Winds will shift to be northerly behind a cold front on Wednesday and diminish to 5 to 10 knots and persist through Thursday night. Waves will be 1 to 3 feet and possibly around 4 feet in the near shore with the front and right after, then will diminish. Friday, winds will shift to be southerly at 5 to 10 knots, then shift to be northwesterly late Saturday night behind a cold front, increasing to 10 to 15 knots.

There will be potential for showers and thunderstorms across Lake Erie Wednesday and Saturday that could bring higher winds and waves within the storms. There is higher confidence in thunderstorms impacting the lake on Saturday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.