textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The forecast largely remains on track and no major changes were needed with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lake effect showers are expected through the weekend. A rain/snow mix is likely tonight with light snow accumulations possible in spots.

2) Dry weather will return early next week with temperatures rising above normal.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... The gloomy weather pattern will continue as cyclonic flow aloft persists over the northeastern CONUS through much of the weekend. The current round of lake effect rain showers will largely taper off through early this morning before shower coverage increases as the next piece of energy pivots across the region later this morning into this afternoon. By Friday night, steering flow will shift to the northwest and focus the precipitation into Northeast Ohio. There will be plenty of lake-induced instability with lake temperatures right around 13C and 850mb temps likely falling to around -6C tonight, so precip rates may be efficient at times. Expect rain as the primary ptype through early this evening before mixing with and possibly even transitioning to snow after 7 PM/00Z tonight. The main challenge with the forecast is how cold temperatures get overnight tonight; northwest flow off of the (relatively) warm lake will most likely keep temperatures just above freezing. With that in mind, snow will likely struggle to accumulate. The current forecast has a trace to roughly half an inch across the Central Highlands and into the secondary snowbelt areas of interior NE OH/NW PA with locally higher amounts of around an inch possible. A few high res models suggest that higher amounts of at least a couple inches are possible where bands of snow persist, especially in the event of a Lake Huron moisture connection, but there is a great deal of uncertainty in where exactly that could occur since it will probably be very isolated. Will need to keep an eye on guidance trends, especially forecast overnight temperatures trend even a couple of degrees cooler. Either way, impacts to travel aren't expected at this point since wet snow accumulations will largely be confined to grassy and elevated surfaces.

Precip will transition back to rain during the day Saturday as temperatures warm into the upper 30s and lower 40s and rain chances will likely increase across NW PA during this time. A few wet snowflakes may mix with rain in NW PA late Saturday night, but a cold rain is generally favored as the upper trough slowly starts to push east of the area and 850mb temps increase. Expect precipitation to gradually dwindle throughout the day Thursday as 850mb moisture decreases and a ridge starts building in from the west.

KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will build into the region by early next week with dry weather expected Monday onwards. Temperatures will slowly increase throughout the week as the high gradually shifts east with highs in the mid to upper 40s on Monday giving way to above normal mid to upper 50s by Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/

Ceilings have been improving to VFR at most terminals as the more widespread rain departs to the south. MVFR has settled back into ERI and will spread south out of Michigan across Northwest Ohio overnight and northern Ohio terminals on Friday morning. Lake effect rain showers will return with flow downwind of Lake Huron focused across northwest/north central Ohio Friday morning and shift east through the day. Precipitation type is expected to be rain during the day but will transition to a rains snow mix at inland terminals like MFD/CAK towards 01Z. Some restricted visibilities are possible in the mixed precipitation.

Winds will remain elevated at ERI overnight with gusts to 25 knots. Otherwise northerly winds of 10 knots or less will back to northwesterly through the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR will linger across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through the weekend. Some wet snow showers may also be possible Friday night through Saturday night.

MARINE

North to northeast winds around 20 knots are expected this morning before becoming more north/northwest and briefly diminishing to 10 to 15 knots for a period this afternoon. However, winds are expected to increase to 20 to 25 knots in the western and central basins tonight through most of the weekend. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through this afternoon, but additional headlines (or extensions of existing headlines) will likely be needed in a future update. The lake-induced instability will result in a chance of waterspouts wherever showers occur through Saturday morning. By then, winds will likely be too high for waterspout development. Northwest winds will likely diminish to 10 to 15 knots during the day Sunday and 10 knots or less by Monday. Wind direction will shift to the west/southwest Monday through at least the middle of next week.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ144>147. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ148- 149.