textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Severe thunderstorms remain a concern for today with damaging winds as the main threat. Our wind gust forecast continues to trend upward for Friday's strong clipper-type low pressure system.

KEY MESSAGES

1.) Severe thunderstorms are possible today including the threat for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding possible.

2.) Big temperature swings and periods of unsettled weather expected late week through early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE #1: The severe weather potential for later today is somewhat uncertain and depends on what happens with this morning's convection that is moving into northwest Ohio. Almost the entire area remains in a slight risk for severe storms for today. There is a weakening MCS moving into NWOH and the Toledo area this early morning. There is a frontal boundary that has barely slipped southward into NWOH as well. South of this front, temperatures are in the 60s and north of this front temps in the 40s.

Over the next few hours and through sunrise, the potential for an isolated strong to severe storm will be mainly confined to NWOH. The forecast is a little more murky on how the convection will evolve later in the day. We kinda like the solution from the latest 3km NAM. Scattered showers and storms will develop later this morning across much of northern Ohio and track eastward into NWPA by midday. A broken line of convection will develop by midday or early afternoon over NWOH with the actual cold front pushing through. This line of convection will continuing to track eastward across the area during the afternoon. The best potential for severe weather looks to be east of I-75 and south of the Ohio Turnpike later today. Damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph will be the main threat followed by an isolated tornado or two threat. Some large hail may be possible. Any kinks or surges in the line of convection will favor a damaging wind threat and a QLCS tornado threat as well. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding may be possible. The front will clear through the area by early evening with rain tapering off from west to east.

KEY MESSAGE #2: It will turn colder on Thursday. The next system will be a strong clipper-type low pressure that will track through the Great Lakes on Friday. Some brief light rain showers may be possible with the system on Friday. Temperatures will be milder in the 50s. The bigger weather impact from the system on Friday will be with the wind. Southwest to westerly winds will increase 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph very possible. The wind gusts have trends upward for Friday and will be monitoring for a potential wind advisory needed for most of the area.

The weather will be quiet on Saturday before a bigger weather system impacts the region Sunday through Monday. A deep upper level trough will develop over the region Sunday into Monday. A strong low pressure system will track from the Midwest into the southern/eastern Great Lakes late Sunday into Sunday night. A trailing strong cold front will move through the area Sunday evening. Temperatures will warm up into the 60s Sunday afternoon ahead of this strong storm system. Rain showers will be likely with the frontal passage late Sunday. Temperatures will crash behind the front into the mid 20s to around 30 Sunday night. Rain will change over to snow Sunday night from west to east. The system light snow will transition to lake effect snow showers favoring both the primary and secondary Snowbelt Monday through early Tuesday. Some accumulations are possible. It will be much colder early next week.

AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

Mainly VFR across the TAF sites early this morning, though a cluster of thunderstorms currently located across portions of Michigan and Indiana will move east into the area, ushering in brief IFR vsbys and peak wind gusts between 30 and 35 knots, primarily impacting TOL. A second area of thunderstorms currently located across central Indiana may move into the area later this morning which could have more broad impacts to the TAF sites, including brief IFR vsby drops and peak wind gusts of 30 to 35 knots. Finally, will be monitoring the redevelopment of thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening, mainly along and south of the US-30 corridor and primarily impacting MFD/CAK/YNG with brief IFR vsbys and peak winds up to 40 knots. Confidence is lower on thunderstorm redevelopment in the afternoon, thus went with prob30 at this time.

Winds are generally out of the south early this morning, 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Winds will gradually shift towards the southwest later this morning and afternoon, increasing to 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Winds will abruptly shift towards the west to northwest behind the cold front this evening, 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered rain/snow showers on Friday. Gusty west to southwest winds of at least 35 to 40 knots are expected on Friday. Non-VFR likely to return in rain/snow showers Saturday night into Sunday.

MARINE

Small Craft Advisories have been issued across Lake Erie as south to southwest winds increase ahead of a cold front to 20 to 25 knots this afternoon, then shift towards the west to northwest behind the front later this evening and overnight, 20 to 25 knots. Winds will gradually diminish to 15 knots or less by Thursday afternoon. The next period of concern is on Friday as a potent low pressure system moves east through the Great Lakes. Confidence is increasing for Gale conditions across Lake Erie and a Watch may be needed in the next couple of forecast cycles. If Gale conditions do develop, the west to southwest flow would likely neccesitate the need for Low Water Advisories across the western basin of the lake.

The final period of concern is towards the end of the weekend late Sunday into Monday as another low pressure system tracks east through the Great Lakes, extending a strong cold front through the area. West winds continue to trend stronger with this system, with high confidence for at least Small Craft conditions to develop across Lake Erie.

CLIMATE

Daily high temperatures are forecast to approach records March 11th. Here are the record warm high temperatures at area climate sites for March 11th.

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 03-11 76(1990) 72(1990) 73(1977) 72(1977) 70(1977) 72(2021)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ142>144. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EDT Thursday for LEZ145>149.