textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A few isolated light showers may continue over far NE OH and NW PA tonight, but the heavy rain and severe potential has ended.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry conditions are expected today and Tuesday before the chance of showers and thunderstorms returns Wednesday afternoon through Friday. Near normal temperatures expected.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... As a low pressure system continues to drift toward the Northeast US today, high pressure is expected to build southeast across the area and allow for dry and pleasant conditions today and tomorrow with highs climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s and sunny skies. This high pressure will drift off the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Wednesday as a weak low pressure and mid-level shortwave push northeast along the Appalachian Mountains. This disturbance will allow for the return of showers and possible thunderstorms along and east of I-71. Given the positioning of the low, much of the area may remain dry until a broad upper level trough begins to impact the region on Thursday.

On Thursday, the aforementioned trough will begin to advect mid- level energy into the region as it moves a surface cold front east. Models suggest this cold front stalling somewhere near the central Great Lakes region and acting as a path for an additional surface low to move from the Plains into the region. Additionally, increase moisture and WAA should assist with destabilization across the area on Thursday presenting the potential for thunderstorms during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. Another round of convection is possible again on Friday as the aforementioned boundary slowly meanders east. Will have to keep an eye on this boundary as current models suggest that the positioning of the mean flow could result in the training of some storms. In addition, given the spread amongst models, there is low confidence in the severe potential, but will need to keep an eye on it given the favorable synoptic setup. Temperatures throughout the week are expected to remain near normal with highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the 60s.

AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/

VFR, no ceilings. Winds now 10kts or less out of the north at the surface, and will near calm overnight. Might have brief BR at TOL 10-12Z Tuesday. FEW-SCT cumulus possible Tuesday afternoon FL035.

Outlook...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with potential for non-VFR are possible on Wednesday through Friday, primarily during the afternoon hours.

MARINE

Elevated northerly flow continues for the central basin of Lake Erie. Waves of 2 to 5 ft will continue through the late morning hours with this flow and the Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements will remain until 11 AM. High pressure building into the region will allow for winds on the lake to diminish through the day. Winds will become light and variable tonight into Tuesday with the high over the region. High pressure will shift east for Tuesday night into Wednesday and some southerly winds will return to the lake before a lake breeze kicks in on Wednesday afternoon. Several weak systems passing to the northwest will allow for southwest flow to be favored over the lake on Thursday and continuing through the end of the week. Once marine headlines end later today, there are not future marine headlines anticipated at this time.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.