textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Scattered showers will be slower to diminish today, lingering into this afternoon for some areas. Increased northeast winds on Thursday, especially near the lakeshore and in northwest Ohio. Lowered high temperatures across the northeast on Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Below normal temperatures expected today and Thursday.

2) Widespread rain of 1-1.5 inches is expected late Friday into Saturday with additional chances of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. Area rivers will experience some rises and a couple may experience minor flooding.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... At 4 AM a cold front was located across Lake Erie into Northwest Ohio. This front will push south this morning ushering in a dramatically cooler airmass. High temperatures for the day are occurring early this morning with temperatures falling through midday. Temperatures at 850mb will fall by approximately 10C between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon with afternoon values in the upper 50s to low 60s with a cool north wind. For some areas this will be 25-30 degrees lower than yesterday.

In addition, skies will be mostly cloudy as moisture continues to stream northeast overhead. A tightly packed frontal boundary in the 925-850mb layer will trail the surface front into this afternoon, prolonging shower activity. Additional showers will generally be light although some elevated instability will remain into the morning and will maintain a slight chance of a thunderstorm across the south.

High pressure will strengthen over the Upper Great Lakes tonight into Thursday. Thursday will have a good deal of sun which will help temperatures recover into the 60s. Locations near Lake Erie will be influenced by a brisk northeast wind off the lake, limiting temperatures to the lower 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will build to New England on Friday as a shortwave trough lifts from the Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley. A good deal of moisture advection will spread north into the region as a surface trough moves north to the Ohio Valley by 00Z Sat. Overrunning will lead to a northward expansion of rain through the day on Friday, becoming widespread by evening. There is high confidence in rain on Friday night, becoming focused more across the east on Saturday as the trough continues north across Lake Erie. Rainfall from Friday and Saturday looks to be in the 1-1.5 inch range but adjustments are likely. This rain will lead to rises on rivers and perhaps a couple rivers experiencing minor flooding.

Temperatures on Friday are generally expected to be cool in the 60s, but will be impacted by the timing of rain. The above mentioned trough does lift a warm front north into the area on Saturday with southerly flow and decreasing showers later in the day bringing a return of warmer temperatures, mainly across the southern and western portion of the local area. Dryer air looks to move overhead Sunday morning before moisture and instability increase again during the afternoon. Temperatures continue to climb as the warm front lifts north. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

A cold front is near TOL as of 6z and will sweep southeast across all terminals through 11-12z. Ahead of the front mainly VFR prevails, though with a few showers towards central Ohio and some patchy lower ceilings across far eastern OH and northwestern PA. All will fall to low MVFR to IFR with the frontal passage...have IFR included at MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI, and can't rule out brief IFR at CLE. Showers will fill back in this morning, mainly south of TOL-CLE-ERI, before exiting to the south and southeast late this afternoon and evening. Some occasional visibility restrictions may accompany these showers, especially at MFD/CAK/YNG. Ceilings gradually climb through MVFR and back to VFR late this morning and afternoon from north to south as drier air gradually filters in. Winds will turn initially northwest and then quickly north-northeast at around 10kt behind the front this morning and persist at that general speed and direction into tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected at times in rain late Friday through Saturday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms with brief non-VFR again possible Sunday afternoon and evening.

MARINE

Winds are quickly turning north-northeast early this morning as a cold front crosses the lake. Winds will briefly increase to around 15kt across the western and central basins this morning, which will briefly build waves to 2-4 feet with those waves being driven towards the shore. Winds briefly lull this afternoon. A stronger pressure gradient is expected Thursday into Friday as high pressure slides north and northeast of Lake Erie. Winds will turn northeast tonight and increase to 15-20kt. Winds will remain northeast and increase further to 20-25kt at times Thursday and Thursday night. Winds gradually turn more easterly and then southeasterly Friday and Friday night, remaining elevated at 15-25kt until late Friday night or early Saturday. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements will be needed for most or all nearshore waters beginning overnight tonight or early Thursday. Will not hoist those with this package but they will be coming today at some point.

Looking ahead to the holiday weekend, generally southerly winds may be elevated enough to cause issues for smaller craft on Saturday. Winds will trend lighter for Sunday and Monday and eventually come around to the northwest. It will be unsettled with periods of rain and perhaps some thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday, with a drying trend likely by Monday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.