textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant forecast changes were made with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cooler with periods of lake effect showers through the weekend.

2) Turning milder early this week with unsettled weather returning mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Upper level low will continue to push east of the forecast area as a surface ridge builds overhead from the west tonight. Currently, lake effect rain showers persist across portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Anticipate for shower coverage to diminish from west to east with the arrival of the surface ridge tonight. There will be a window of dry weather and clearing with the surface ridge before another upper level trough clips the northeastern portions of the forecast area on Sunday night. Lake effect rain showers will redevelop across the traditional Snowbelt region Sunday night into Monday before diminishing through the day on Monday.

Northwest winds this afternoon and evening will continue to occasionally gust to 20-25 MPH before the ridge enters from the west. The pressure gradient tightens as the trough approaches the region which will lead to westerly wind gusts increasing to 25-30 MPH by Sunday.

Remaining cooler this weekend with low temperatures tonight falling to the upper 20s to lower 30s under a mainly clear sky. High temperatures on Sunday warm into the mid to upper 50s before lows Sunday night dip into the mid to upper 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... The first half of the week looks mainly dry and mild as surface high pressure remains across the Ohio Valley. Another upper trough will dig south into the region later in the week. However, current medium range models have some differences in exact timing. For now, expect for unsettled weather to return at some point later in the week with precipitation chances increasing Thursday onward. The upper trough will also introduce a cold airmass with 850mb temperatures of -5 to -10C, depending on what model you look at, which may usher in our first snow or rain/snow mix of the season.

AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/

Any lingering MVFR ceilings in lake effect stratus will gradually clear out overnight. From there, VFR is expected through Sunday before ceilings lower across portions of NE OH/NW PA after 00Z Monday. A few showers are possible at KERI after 00Z Monday, although the better chance of showers will likely hold off until after the TAF period. Conditions may very briefly drop to MVFR in showers and lower ceilings at KERI towards 06Z, but confidence is too low to include non-VFR conditions in the TAF at this point.

Winds will be out of the west/southwest at 5 to 10 knots overnight. By late Sunday morning, southwest winds will increase to 10 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 to 30 knots with similar flow continuing through early evening. By 00Z Monday, winds will be more westerly with sustained winds between 10 and 15 knots and gusts to 20 to 25 knots. Winds may remain elevated along the immediate shore of Lake Erie through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...Rain showers with potential for non-VFR are likely across far Northeast OH and Northwest PA late Sunday night into Monday. Non-VFR is possible areawide Wednesday night through Thursday with rain showers.

MARINE

Elevated northwest winds 15-25 knots with wave heights 3 to 6 feet continue across the central and eastern basins through this evening. As a surface ridge builds over the lake from the west winds turn westerly to southwesterly while remaining elevated 15-20 knots which will keep wave heights 3-5 feet. Surface pressure gradient increases on Sunday leading to southwesterly winds increasing to 20-30 knots by Sunday afternoon. Wave heights will subsequently build to 5-8 feet across the nearshore waters and 8-10 feet in the open waters of the central and eastern basins. A cold front swings south across the lake Sunday night into Monday leading to winds returning northwesterly at 20-25 knots. High pressure regains control Monday with wind speeds decreasing to 10-20 knots and wave heights subsiding to 2 feet or less by Monday night. Small Craft Advisories have been extended in Monday east of the Islands.

There will likely be a brief window Monday night into Tuesday with southwesterly winds 10-15 knots before winds increase to 20-25 knots and waves build to 3-6 feet. Another set of Small Craft Advisories may be needed for the central and eastern basins.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Sunday for LEZ142- 143. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for LEZ144-145. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Monday for LEZ146>149.