textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

We are still expecting temperatures to warm up and feel more like Spring on Monday ahead of a cold front. The next round of soaking rainfall for the area will arrive Monday night with showers and isolated thunder. Forecast confidence is increasing for a much cooler weather pattern to develop over the Great Lakes region for the end of this week through next weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A nice warm up in temperatures will arrive on Monday before a cold front moves in Monday night into early Tuesday with widespread showers and isolated thunder possible.

2) A much cooler weather pattern will likely develop over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region towards the end of this weekend and continue through next weekend. There may be the potential for frost and temperatures dropping down to freezing for a few nights late this week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... The low stratus cloud deck is starting to slowly erode away this mid-afternoon. A northeast flow off of Lake Erie today has been helping with prolonging the low clouds over much of northern Ohio. Skies have cleared out on the edges of our CWA in NWPA and far NWOH. The expectation for the rest of the afternoon is for the clouds to continue to scattered out with most areas seeing some sunshine by early evening before sunset. A surface high pressure over central Quebec Canada is building down into our area this afternoon and tonight. Skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy tonight with overnight low temps in the 40s areawide.

Southerly flow will increase tomorrow in response to the high pressure system exiting the region and a low pressure system that will track through the Upper Midwest into the western Great Lakes. Skies will be mostly sunny Monday but high level clouds will increase by Monday evening from the west. High temperatures will warm up nicely in the middle to upper 70s Monday afternoon. A cold front will approach from the west Monday night with showers likely and isolated thunder possible. At this time, we are expecting the severe weather threat to stay west of our area Monday night. The thermodynamics looks weak over out area as the cold front moves in late Monday night. We will likely see numerous showers and some general thunder possible overnight Monday into early Tuesday. The actual cold front slows down somewhat and will move through the area during the late morning or midday on Tuesday. We will keep in chance POPs on Tuesday for scattered showers. We will squeeze out one more warm day with high temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s for Tuesday. Another low pressure system will track across the Upper Ohio Valley on Wednesday with more rain showers. Over the 2 day period from Monday night through Wednesday evening, we are expecting total rainfall amounts to average around 1 inch for much of the area with some locations possibly receiving a little over an inch.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A big shift in the weather pattern will take shape for later this week and bring much cooler weather through next weekend. A large upper level trough will develop over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley starting Wednesday and linger through next weekend. The overall forecast will have high temperatures in the 50s Wednesday through the weekend with skies being cloudy than clear due to the upper level trough overhead. Low temperatures will start off the 40s by midweek and towards the end of the week dropping down into the 30s areawide for several nights. We may have a few nights with the potential of frost and some freezing temperatures possible too. Due to the start of the growing season, we may be looking at the need for frost and freeze headlines later this week. There may be some rain showers on Friday with another reinforcing cold front moving through the Great Lakes region.

AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/

VFR across the TAF sites this evening with mainly VFR to persist through the TAF period. Only period of concern for non-VFR conditions is towards the end of the TAF period across the I-75 corridor (TOL/FDY) with approaching rain showers, though confidence is low on direct impacts. Additional rain/t-storms may need to be included along the I-75 corridor in the next TAF package after 0Z Tuesday.

Winds will gradually shift from the east to northeast this evening, 5 to 7 knots, to the southeast by mid-Monday morning, increasing to 10 to 12 knots with periodic gusts of 20 to 22 knots. Will need to monitor wind trends towards the end of the TAF period, and especially after 0Z Tuesday in the following TAF package as some guidance is hinting at some stronger south to southeast winds with the decaying convection.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday. Non-VFR likely again in showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday.

MARINE

A high pressure ridge exits slowly E'ward from the Lake Erie region through Monday. Waves of 3 feet or less are expected as winds around 5 to 15 knots veer gradually from NE'erly to SE'erly. Note: patchy fog over the western and central basins is expected to dissipate by early evening as drier air overspreads the lake generally from the northeast.

During Monday night through Tuesday night, a low should wobble NNE'ward from the Upper Mississippi Valley to Hudson Bay and deepen. A warm front should sweep NE'ward across Lake Erie Monday night through Tuesday morning and cause winds as strong as about 15 to 25 knots to veer from SE'erly to S'erly to SW'erly. Waves should build to as large as 4 to 8 feet and will trend largest in open U.S. waters and ON waters based on forecast fetch. A Small Craft Advisory, primarily for wind, will likely be needed. The low's trailing cold front should sweep E'ward across Lake Erie late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night and cause S'erly to SW'erly winds around 10 to 20 knots to veer to N'erly to NE'erly and ease steadily to around 5 to 15 knots by daybreak Wednesday morning. Accordingly, waves are expected to subside steadily to 3 feet or less by daybreak.

Behind the cold front, a trough should linger over Lake Erie on Wednesday as a secondary low along the front tracks NE'ward, south through east of the lake, and deepens somewhat. NE'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots should back toward NW'erly and may flirt with 20 knots at times, especially during the PM hours. Waves should remain mainly 3 feet or less, but occasional 4 footers are possible. During Wednesday night through Friday, a ridge should build from the north-central United States and vicinity. Winds should vary between W'erly and N'erly and mainly be in the 5 to 15 knot range. However, winds may flirt with 20 knots at times Wednesday night. Waves of mainly 3 feet or less are expected, but occasional 4 footers are possible Wednesday night.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.