textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Extended rain chances across NE OH through tonight/very early Monday morning, but otherwise no major changes needed with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lake effect snow showers are expected to continue through today before tapering off tonight.

2) High pressure will build in for much of next week with drier, seasonable weather expected. Temperatures will likely rise above normal by late next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... An upper trough will linger over the eastern Great Lakes today before pushing east tonight into early Monday. This will result in continued lake effect showers in NE OH/NW PA with periods of wet snow mixing in with the rain early this morning. Surface temperatures will remain just above freezing so snow accumulations are not expected. Generally expect a downward trend in shower coverage as the trough shifts east during the today with only a slight chance (around 20%) of showers across portions of NE OH into tonight. Any lingering showers will taper off by early Monday morning as 850mb temperatures increase and moisture decreases.

KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will build east across the region Monday and maintain influence over the local area as it slowly shifts east throughout the workweek. This will result in dry weather through at least Friday. Temperatures will be just a couple of degrees below normal Monday with highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s expected, however temperatures will gradually improve throughout the week as warm air advection develops on the back side of the high. By Thursday and Friday, highs will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s, which is several degrees above normal for this time of year. Showers may return to the area as early as late Saturday as the next cold front approaches from the west.

AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/

Widespread non-VFR ceilings at 015-025 continue today through much of the TAF period. A lake effect band is currently situated across KCAK bringing ceilings and visibility down to IFR. This will begin to dissipate over the next few hours and conditions will improve to MVFR. IFR conditions are likely overnight at KYNG as the lake effect band moves back eastward. Ceilings will begin to improve slowly Monday morning from west to east throughout the day. Sites from KCLE eastward may not clear until late Monday evening. There is low to moderate confidence in ceilings improving when forecast as some guidance suggests that ceilings will persist longer.

Winds across the region at between 300-350 at 5-10 knots. Overnight, winds will become lighter at 5 knots or less out of the west- northwest before backing to more westerly to southwesterly by mid to late Monday morning.

Outlook...Non-VFR will linger across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through Monday in low ceilings.

MARINE

North/northwest winds around 20 knots will continue in the central basin of Lake Erie through early this morning before flow over the lake diminishes to roughly 10 to 15 knots after sunrise. Small Craft Advisories will remain for the nearshore waters of the central basin through late morning. From there, much calmer marine conditions are anticipated as high pressure builds over the lake. By Monday morning, northwest winds will be 10 knots or less with surface winds becoming more southwesterly by Monday evening. Winds in the open waters will likely increase to 10 to 15 knots for a period on Tuesday and Tuesday night. South/southwest winds will develop as the high drifts east on Thursday and the lake with deepening warm air advection causing winds to increase to 10 to 20 knots. The highest winds/waves will likely remain in the open waters during this time.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ145>148.