textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Confidence in accumulating freezing rain across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania this morning has increased. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through 10 AM this morning. Additionally, the flooding risk has decreased as the axis of highest QPF has shifted south of the forecast area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Accumulating freezing rain will briefly impact Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania this morning before transitioning to all rain later this morning.

2) Trending warmer with multiple rounds of rain expected today through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A warm front will continue to lift north across the Ohio Valley with primarily light rain showers moving through the local area this morning. Along the leading edge of precipitation, some light freezing rain/drizzle will be possible across portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Overall accumulations will generally range between a light glaze to a few hundredths of an inch. Have issued a Winter Weather Advisory across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania where highest accumulations will likely occur. Anticipate for any freezing rain to transition to all rain between 8 and 10 AM this morning. Periods of rain showers will move across the region through tonight as the warm front becomes stationary across the local area this afternoon and evening. Rain should gradually diminish later tonight as the front sinks south of the forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 2... The aforementioned warm front will waver across the region through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Multiple disturbances will track through the area along the front bringing periods of rain showers to the region. The southward shift of the stalled front has largely shifted the axis of higher QPF amounts south of the local area. The latest forecast now has generally 0.25 to 1 inch of rainfall across the region with locally higher amounts 1 to 1.5 inches along and south of US 30. With the southern shift of the stalled boundary the flooding risk has decreased, but will likely see some rises to area rivers and creeks. Latest NASA SPoRT guidance keeps nearly all local creeks and streams below action stage. There may be enough instability Wednesday into Thursday for some thunderstorms to develop. The better potential for strong to severe storms will be over the weekend ahead of a cold front.

Temperatures will warm throughout the week with highs in the 40s today warming into the 60s Thursday and Friday. Highs in the 60s expected again on Saturday with some southeastern zones making a run at low 70s.

AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/

Light freezing rain may continue across parts of far Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through about 14 or 15Z. Temperatures will continue to warm this morning with freezing rain transitioning to rain later this morning.

Widespread low ceilings, light showers, and drizzle are expected through today and tonight. There may be a brief improvement from the south at our southern TAF sites (KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG) for a short period this afternoon, otherwise expecting IFR or lower conditions with ceilings in the 300-800 ft range and visibilities as low as 1-2 SM. Patchy fog could be possible across central Ohio early this morning and across parts of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania tonight into Wednesday morning.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely continues into Tuesday night with rain showers or drizzle. Occasional periods of rain late Wednesday through Saturday will likely bring additional non-VFR conditions.

MARINE

Light east to northeast winds are expected through Thursday evening across the lake. A warm front will lift northward across the lake on Friday, with winds become southerly. Winds strengthen to around 15 to 25 knots as they become southwesterly over the weekend. The lake is still mostly ice covered, but warm temperatures should cause a broader decrease in ice coverage through at least early next week.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ012>014-022-023. PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ002-003. MARINE...None.