textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Confidence in accumulating lake-enhanced snowfall late this weekend through Monday is increasing. Have increase QPF and resulting snowfall totals. The highest snowfall totals are likely across the snowbelt regions of NE OH and NW PA, although there remains uncertainty in the exact placement of the highest snowfall totals and resulting impacts.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Near to below normal temperatures and accumulating snow return this weekend into early next week.

2) Warmer temperatures likely arrive for mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Light lake-enhanced snow showers may continue across NW PA through early morning, but largely anticipate a downward trend in precipitation over the next several hours.

Snow chances increase overnight tonight as an upper low moves east into the local area. Snow should be relatively scattered through early Sunday morning with higher snow chances arriving with the upper trough axis starting at about 12Z Sunday morning. Widespread snow is likely across the entire area Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon with snowfall totals of 1 to 2 inches likely. Persistent upper troughing and northwest flow will result in continued lake-enhanced snow showers across the area through at least Monday afternoon, including locations across north-central Ohio downwind from upstream Great Lakes and the typical snowbelt areas of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Sunday evening. High temperatures will be near normal on Sunday with below normal temperatures likely for Monday and Tuesday.

There's still quite a bit of uncertainty in the placement of snow bands and resulting snow accumulations, but as of now it appears that the highest snow accumulations of up to 5 to 7 inches between Sunday morning and Monday night will occur in the higher terrain of the primary snowbelt region of NE OH/NW PA. Winter Weather Advisories may be needed for late Sunday into Monday, but there is some potential for isolated warning amounts in areas where bands of heavier snow persist. Possible impacts include slick travel and reduced visibility in periods of moderate snowfall. Impacts should be mitigated by the prolonged nature of lake effect snow, which will occur over a 24 to 30 hour period. Snow showers are expected to dwindle on Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... While there's still uncertainty in the upper level pattern for mid to late week, temperatures will likely trend closer to normal starting Wednesday with above normal temps possible by next weekend. Showers may move across the CWA Wednesday and Thursday, however there's still too much uncertainty in the placement of any synoptic features to determine any potential impacts. Guidance generally favors dry weather for Friday.

AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/

MVFR ceilings exist across the TAF sites this afternoon. A combination of MVFR and IFR vsbys will begin late tonight into Sunday morning as an area of light snow develops and moves west to east across the area. IFR vsbys will most likely be found along and west of the I-77 corridor, with scattered snow showers favored elsewhere.

Winds are generally favoring a west direction this afternoon, 7 to 10 knots. Winds will primarily retain a west to west- northwest direction through the TAF period, increasing closer to 10 to 12 knots by early Sunday afternoon.

Outlook...Periodic snow with non-VFR expected Sunday evening through Tuesday night. Non-VFR likely on Wednesday in snow changing to rain/snow with a clipper system. Non-VFR may return again on Thursday with another system.

MARINE

Weakening low pressure over Lake Huron will devolve into a trough today. Southwest winds with this feature will diminish during the day from 15 to 20 kts of flow to 10 kts. The trough will remain over the area on Sunday and Monday. Meanwhile, a strong low pressure system will move up the East Coast. This stronger system will enhance the pressure gradient across the region, while shifting winds to the northwest. Winds will ramp up with the strengthening gradient to 15 to 20 kts on Sunday and 20 to 25 kts on Monday. This stronger northwest flow will compress ice along the Lake Erie Shoreline early next week.

A ridge of high pressure will build into the region on Tuesday and winds will back to the southwest and weaken to 10 kts. A low pressure system will target the Great Lakes region on Wednesday into Thursday and southwest winds will increase over the lake.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.