textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

POPs linger a touch longer Saturday morning. A bit cooler Sunday in the far western zones with a NE wind off of chilly Lake Erie. Early next week cold frontal passage will be slowed down into the Tuesday time frame.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain exits with cooler weather and high pressure influences make the rest of the weekend dry.

2) A cold front moves through with the next chances for convection Monday night and Tuesday, followed by a cooler pattern through the end of the week with dominant upper level low pressure in place.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Upper trough/frontal system exits this morning followed by surface high pressure influences and mid/upper level ridging into Sunday. Drier weather, and for Sunday, the orientation of the surface ridging will create northeasterly winds off of Lake Erie, and ultimately a temperature profile of cooler conditions from western Cuyahoga to Toledo and a couple of counties inland for the western CWA. Column pretty dry through the weekend period upon frontal exit, and into Monday finally will get back into 850mb temperature increases ahead of the next frontal system. Should be in the 70s area wide Monday, or very close to it, perhaps coming a couple degrees short for some of the NW PA locations.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Low pressure system deepens over the central plains region tracking northeastward into the northern Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday, with the next cold front slated to move through the CWA. Severe threat could be ramped up a bit from the previous system moving through this morning with a much more pronounced low level jet and increasing 0-6km bulk shear values. Will need to better assess other parameters such as instability in coming forecast runs, but decent confidence as of right now in convective weather for late Monday night into Tuesday. Looking at the broader scale picture, after that cold front exits, another surface low brings precipitation chances from the southwest Tuesday night into Wednesday. In the meantime, upper level low pressure drops into the Great Lakes and could be at risk of cutting off, translating to a period of below normal temperatures for the region late in the week and heading into next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/

Low pressure and an associated cold front will move southeast across the area this morning. Rain is expected along the cold front, diminishing west to east by mid-day, with isolated showers possible. Ceilings will deteriorate behind the front, with areawide IFR and localized LIFR expected. Conditions improve to MVFR during the afternoon Saturday, with pockets of IFR persisting along and near the lakeshore. North to northwest winds 10-14 knots will persist during the day Saturday.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions persist overnight Saturday through Sunday morning, with VFR conditions expected Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Non-VFR conditions return with showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Wednesday morning.

MARINE

A cold front moving east overnight will shift winds north- northeast with speeds of 5-10 knots. Northerly winds will increase across the central and eastern basin Saturday and Saturday night, with winds between 10 to 15 knots and waves 2-4 feet. A strong low pressure system moves through the western Great Lakes region for the start of next week, and winds will increase to 15-20 knots for a period of time late Monday into Tuesday. A a Small Craft Advisory may be needed.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.