textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Seasonable and mainly dry weather will continue into Tuesday.

2) A brief period of above average temperatures will arrive on Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure will persist across the Great Lakes region through Labor Day Weekend, ushering in seasonable and less humid weather. Highs will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s with lows generally in the 50s, though some isolated 40s are possible, especially across the interior areas Sunday night into Monday morning. A few lake-enhanced showers are possible later this morning and afternoon, though coverage remains uncertain given the latest satellite imagery revealing large pockets of dry air across the region associated with the high pressure subsidence.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A strong upper-level trough will move east through the Upper Great Lakes on Wednesday, ushering in strong warm air advection across the Lower Great Lakes and Midwest. A brief period of heat and humidity will return across the region as heat indices reach the low to mid-90s in some spots Wednesday afternoon. The latest guidance indicates a narrow region of instability developing across the area in the midst of seasonably-strong mid and upper-level flow which could be favorable for some stronger storms in the afternoon and evening, though there remains uncertainty on coverage. Cooler and less humid weather will return across the region Thursday into Friday as a cold front moves east through the area and high pressure returns.

AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/

VFR. SCT-BKN cumulus field around FL045 during daytime heating today. Winds northeast 10kts, but could gust 15-20kts at CLE. No ceilings and no visibility restrictions overnight.

Outlook...Non- VFR possible with isolated showers/thunderstorms on Wednesday.

MARINE

Choppy marine conditions (waves 2 to 3 feet at times) will continue in the afternoon and evening hours over the next couple of days as onshore flow becomes diurnally enhanced, resulting in northeast flow up to 15 knots in some instances. Flow will shift towards the southwest ahead of the next system on Wednesday, with winds increasing into the 15 to 25 knot range. Small Craft Advisories may be needed during this timeframe. Winds will then shift towards the west to northwest behind a cold front on Thursday, 10 to 15 knots.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.