textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast with quiet weather in the first few days.

KEY MESSAGES

1.) Cold today with isolated non-accumulating snow showers with high pressure moving in, then gradually warming.

2.) The next strong cold front comes through late Thursday night as temperatures fall off again in this highly variable pattern.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... An inversion around 800mb and around 100mb of saturation beneath it will allow for isolated to scattered snow showers today with an assist from a mid level 700mb trough tracking through and while modest daytime heating takes advantage of limited instability. Will have to fight through some near surface dry air, and ultimately do not think any accumulations are warranted with this, especially with temperatures lingering above freezing. High pressure spills into the southern Great Lakes with this colder Canadian airmass, and after today, will be on the track to temperature recovery through airmass modification and the surface high shifting east of the region Tuesday night. 30s today modify to 40s Tuesday, and then southerly flow takes hold with warm air advection returning to the fold for Wednesday and THursday where high temperatures get back into the 50s/60s Wednesday and 60s/70s Thursday. Forecast is mainly dry after the snow showers today with only isolated shower chances in the warm air advection Wednesday night and early Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... In a similar trend as seen the past couple of weeks, will be paying for these warmer temperatures once again with another strong cold front that looks to move through the CWA late Thursday into early Thursday night. Likely to be seeing thunderstorms and then plummeting temperatures heading into Friday with more isolated to scattered rain/snow showers into Friday morning. Likely not getting out of the mid 30s to low 40s. Will be at the mercy of the high pressure system and the length of time it takes to get east of the CWA for warm air advection again. Until then, slow airmass modification brings 40s Saturday and 50s Sunday, and again, dry under the control of the surface high.

AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/

W'erly to NW'erly flow aloft is expected through 12Z/Tues as a high pressure ridge at the surface and aloft builds from the north-central United States and vicinity. Our regional surface winds trend NW'erly to N'erly around 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to about 20 knots at times through ~23Z/Mon. Thereafter, winds are expected to trend light and variable through 12Z/Tues.

Widespread low clouds are expected through ~23Z/Mon. Resulting ceilings will be in mainly the MVFR to IFR range before 15Z/Mon and mainly in the VFR to MVFR range thereafter as abundant stratocumuli evolve into numerous cumuli as the boundary layer destabilizes via diurnal warming. The cumuli are expected to dissipate between 21Z and 23Z/Mon as the boundary layer begins to stabilize via nocturnal cooling. However, from 21Z/Mon through 12Z/Tues, scattered to broken lake-effect stratocumuli with bases near 2kft to 4kft AGL are expected to stream generally SE'ward or S'ward from Lake Erie and impact locations roughly along and east of the longitude of KCLE.

Areas of lingering mist and associated MVFR visibility are expected to dissipate by ~15Z/Mon. Periods of light lake-effect rain and/or snow with mainly VFR to MVFR visibility are expected over and generally south or southeast of Lake Erie through this early evening amidst a marginally-cold/moist low-level air mass and large-scale ascent ahead of subtle disturbances embedded in the flow aloft. Otherwise dry weather and VFR are expected through 12Z/Tues.

Outlook...Non-VFR are possible with periodic rain and/or snow this Wednesday night through Friday. Thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon through evening.

MARINE

Small Craft Advisory for nearshore U.S. waters in effect: - Until 5 PM EDT today for The Islands to Willowick - From 6 AM to 10 PM today for Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake - From 2 PM to 10 PM today for Geneva-on-the-Lake to Ripley

A trough exits slowly E'ward as a high pressure ridge builds from the north-central United States and vicinity today. In response, NE'erly to NW'erly winds around 10 to 20 knots are expected through sunset this evening. Waves as large as 3 to 5 feet are expected in the central basin and waves of 3 feet or less are forecast elsewhere. The ridge axis moves E'ward across Lake Erie tonight, which will cause NW'erly to N'erly winds to veer to S'erly to SW'erly as wind speeds ease to around 5 to 10 knots. Waves subside to 2 feet or less basin-wide. Primarily S'erly to SW'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots are expected Tuesday through Thursday afternoon as the ridge exits slowly E'ward. On the backside of the ridge, a warm front should sweep generally N'ward across Lake Erie Tuesday through Tuesday night. Waves of 3 feet or less are expected.

A strong cold front should sweep SE'ward across Lake Erie Thursday evening and cause SW'erly winds around 10 to 20 knots to veer to NW'erly to N'erly and freshen to around 15 to 25 knots. Waves should build to as large as 3 to 5 feet. Behind the front, a strong high pressure ridge should build from the northern Great Plains and vicinity through Friday. Winds should be primarily NW'erly to N'erly and ease gradually to around 5 to 15 knots by Friday evening. Waves initially as large as 3 to 6 feet should subside to 3 feet or less by sunset Friday evening. We will continue to monitor the need for another Small Craft Advisory.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ144>146. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ147. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ148-149.