textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Dry and seasonable weather conditions continue through Friday and no major changes to the forecast are needed at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry conditions continue with temperatures gradually warming through Friday.

2) The weather pattern will change for the weekend, allowing for showers and storm chances for Friday night through Sunday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure over the Great Lakes region will allow for continued dry and seasonable weather. Temperatures will be in the 70s through Wednesday and increasing into the 80s for Thursday and Friday, as high pressure shifts east. With the weekend system starting to enter the region on Friday, clouds will start to spread across the area, which allows for lower confidence in the temperature forecast and will maintain temperatures and heat index values less than 90 degrees.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A pattern change is expected for the weekend with an upper trough entering from the northwest, breaking up the blocking ridge and supporting a low pressure system and cold front through the Great Lakes region. Overall, the theme remains the same with this system allowing for scattered shower and thunderstorm chances through the weekend. Given the timing of the low pressure system and energy of the upper trough axis, there may be better coverage on Saturday afternoon and evening. Severe potential continues to be low, but conditional, as convection would be over the area during peak heating as the best forcing moves through the region. Will need to see how much moisture and jet support can get into the area to support any organized severe weather threat.

AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period during the next 24 hours. High pressure will remain over the Great Lakes for a couple more days and bring light winds, variable at times or from the north to northeast 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday night through Sunday.

MARINE

High pressure north of Lake Erie will continue to allow for northeast flow and some choppy 2 to 3 ft waves through this evening, especially over the central basin between the Lake Erie Islands and Fairport Harbor. High pressure will sag south for Wednesday, allowing for light and variable flow on the lake and pleasant marine conditions. High pressure moves east for Thursday and Friday, opening up the lake to southwest, offshore flow with 10 to 15 kts during the afternoon hours. Low pressure system and cold front arrives for the weekend with shower and storm chances for the lake. Southwest flow will continue on Saturday but shift to generally weak northwest flow for Sunday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.