textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast as it remains on track.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periods of showers and thunderstorms continue through today as a front wavers across the Ohio Valley.

2) Unsettled weather pattern continues into the weekend. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are possible Saturday into Sunday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Surface boundary remains draped across the Ohio Valley region today with periods of showers and storms continuing as numerous shortwaves aloft move overhead through this evening. Showers and storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall with localized flooding possible. Both REFS and HREF composite reflectivity ensemble paintballs indicate two primary windows where shower and storm coverage increase. The first window will be early this morning into daybreak as a wave aloft moves overhead. Area of coverage will include portions of Northwest and Central Ohio. Another wave enters the region late this morning/early afternoon where storms may dive southeast from Northern Indiana towards Central Ohio. Low confidence in any storm reaching severe limits today as best instability remains south and west of the forecast area.

By this evening, the front will exit to the south as Canadian high pressure enters from the north. There may be some lingering showers this evening before the high takes full control of the weather pattern by Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Dry conditions are expected through Friday evening before high pressure exits to the east Friday night into Saturday. Precipitation chances return from the northwest overnight Friday into Saturday as low pressure lifts a warm front across the local area. The low will then drag a cold front from northwest to southeast Saturday into Sunday. The primary concern with this system continues to be heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding. WPC has maintained a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) Excessive Rainfall Outlook for this timeframe across the western half of the forecast area. Highest axis of QPF remains north of the forecast area in a swath from Chicago/Milwaukee east towards Detroit.

AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/

Widespread MVFR and IFR are seen at most terminals across the region this afternoon and evening. Rains showers are moving across Western Ohio currently that will temporarily bring down visibility to around 2SM for KTOL and KFDY. KMFD will see impacts within the next few hours, though visibility shouldn't drop to IFR. MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to continue through the overnight as the lower levels will stay saturated longer than anticipated. Drier air will move in early tomorrow morning that will improve conditions across the region from north to south.

Winds will generally be on the light side through the TAF period around 5-10 knots out of the northwest then shifting to the north by tomorrow morning.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and thunderstorms Saturday through Sunday.

MARINE

North to northeast winds of 5-10 knots are expected on Lake Erie today, then increasing to 15-20 knots for a brief window late tonight into Friday morning. Waves will be choppy given the onshore flow and will increase to 2 to 5 feet on the central basin of Lake Erie on Friday morning. Winds will decrease by Friday afternoon but then veer to easterly at 10-15 knots Friday night through Saturday.

Low pressure will pass near or just south of Lake Erie on Saturday night. The track of the low will impact wind direction and wave heights as a brief window of southerly flow would yield better marine conditions than a more prolonged stretch of north to northeast winds. Once the northeasterly flow becomes established on the back side of the system, rough marine conditions can be expected on the central and western basin of Lake Erie from Sunday through Tuesday with the potential for winds to reach 30 knots at times. A prolonged Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed late this weekend through early next week.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.