textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

There are no changes to the ongoing Lake Effect Snow Warnings and Advisories at this time. Looking ahead for this weekend into next week, there are no significant changes with the overall forecast. We are expecting a cold weather outbreak to develop and linger over the Great Lakes this weekend through the middle of next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Heavy lake effect snow will continue today across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. The lake effect snow will impact travel and cause hazardous road conditions across much of the Snowbelt today into this evening.

3) The weather pattern this weekend into next week will bring a cold weather outbreak with an Arctic airmass moving over the Great Lakes region. There will be multiple nights with temperatures in the single digits to near Zero degrees. Wind chill values will be below Zero for several days.

2) The very cold weather pattern this weekend into next week will also bring several weather systems with chances for light snow and the potential for more accumulating lake effect snow in the Snowbelt.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... The main key message in the near term forecast is the ongoing heavy lake effect snow across both the primary and secondary Snowbelt region this morning. On the radar this morning, we are seeing several organized bands of heavy lake effect snow. There is a band of heavy lake effect snow and squalls nearly stationary coming from the Western basin of Lake Erie into the western and southern areas of the Cleveland metro. There is another distinct band of heavy lake effect snow with a Lake Huron connection coming into the area around Ashtabula and the far corner of NEOH and NWPA. We are also seeing on radar and observations an area of moderate to heavy lake enhanced snow from eastern Lorain County eastward across much of the Cleveland area into Geauga and Lake County this morning. This area of lake enhanced snow is likely from the deep, moist flow coming off the both Lake Huron and Lake Erie and being helped by the subtle elevation rise of the "heights" on the souther and eastern side of the CLE metro. With that said, travel will be impacted this morning with varying weather and road conditions across the Snowbelt.

A large and deep upper trough has developed over the eastern U.S. and the main center of this system is currently over northeast Ohio this morning. This rather strong and nearly vertically stacked low pressure system will slowly exit eastward today. We will dealing with the backside of this storm system for much of today with a deep northwesterly flow coming over Lake Huron and Lake Erie into our area.

The overall trend today will be heavy lake effect snow with additional accumulations likely. The heaviest snowfall and storm totals will be in the primary snowbelt, like the higher terrain around Geauga County and inland Crawford and Erie County PA. For the latest info additional snowfall for specific locations, please check the text product of the warnings or the weather story graphic on our webpage. The highest POPs and coverage of lake effect snow and greatest impacts will be this morning through midday. By this afternoon and especially this evening, there will be a gradual decrease in the lake effect and slowly ending from west to east across the Snowbelt of NEOH. The lake effect snow linger for NWPA into this evening before it shuts down and moves out of the local area. Some areas of far NEOH and more so into NWPA may again have travel impacts for the evening commute. We did not make any changes to the ongoing Lake Effect Snow Warning and Advisories. These weather impact alerts are expected drop off later today into this evening as the lake effect snow slowly ends from west to east.

Gusty northwest winds today will be 25 to 35 mph which will cause some localized blowing and drifting snow. Actual air temperatures will be in the upper teens and lower 20s for high temps today. Wind chill values this morning near zero and staying in the single digits later today. High pressure will build into the Ohio Valley tonight and shut off the lake effect snow machine. Overnight low temps will drop into the lower teens.

KEY MESSAGE 2... The next impactful weather concern we have in the forecast will arrive this weekend and continue into next week. A very cold weather pattern will develop and linger for multiple day. A large, deep layer upper level trough will setup and stay in place over the Great Lakes region and much of the eastern U.S. this weekend into next week. There will be several low pressure systems that will track down out of Canada into the Great Lakes region around backside and base of this upper level. Each of these low pressure systems will bring down an Arctic front to reinforce the very cold airmass moving over the Great Lakes region this weekend into next week. Before the coldest weather of this winter season arrives, there will be a brief moderation of temperatures Friday and Saturday with high temps in the 30s. The first Arctic front arrives late Saturday. The second Arctic reinforcing cold front will arrive Monday. And there maybe a 3rd cold front by the middle or end of next week. High temperatures will only be in the teens and 20s Sunday through the middle of next week. More importantly and impactful will be overnight low temperatures will be in the single digits to near Zero for multiple nights late this weekend through the middle of next week. The latest forecast model guidance has been trended colder with the potential for some subzero overnight low temps and high temps not getting out of the single digits early next week. Wind chill values will be approaching dangerous cold levels -10F to -20F potentially Monday into Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Along with the cold weather outbreak this weekend into next week will several chances for light snow associated with the low pressures systems and cold fronts that will move across the Great Lakes region. There will also be the potential for additional lake effect snow and accumulations in the Snowbelt region of NEOH and NWPA this weekend into next week. There is alot of uncertainty on if and how the next setup for lake effect snow will develop, but there is some indication there could be additional lake effect snow that develops and persist for multiple days into early next week. Stay tuned and weather aware!

AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/

Widespread snow showers continue to impact the area this morning, especially at terminals downwind of Lake Erie where heavy lake effect continues to fall. Conditions range from VFR in areas between snow showers to LIFR at terminals in the heaviest bands. Generally speaking, conditions should gradually improve from west to east today as the trough continues to move east of the area with non-VFR conditions persisting longest at KERI. By the end of the period, all visibilities will rebound to VFR distances but lingering ceilings between 2-3kft will maintain MVFR conditions across eastern terminals.

Winds today (through 00Z Friday) will remain out of the northwest at 10-15 knots, gusting up to 25 knots at times. Isolated stronger gusts up to 30 knots is possible along the immediate lakeshore, including at KERI. These gusty winds will likely result in blowing snow further acting to reduce visibilities. Tonight winds begin to veer and become southwesterly at 5-10 knots ahead of the next system. Some light snow showers may creep into the far western terminals at the tail end of the period, but confidence was too low to include in the TAF.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in snow showers on Friday and Saturday. Non-VFR may linger across NE OH and NW PA on Sunday.

MARINE

Multiple low pressure systems are expected to impact the region through next week, resulting in a prolonged period of hazardous marine conditions across Lake Erie. With this update, opted to extend the Small Craft Advisory for the Central and Eastern basins through Saturday as elevated winds of 20-25 knots will persist. Today, winds from the northwest will result in waves along the nearshore of 4 to 7 feet with locally higher waves possible. These winds will become southwesterly by Friday morning as high pressure builds in allowing waves along the nearshore to subside to 1 to 3 feet into Saturday.

In addition, the arrival of a much colder airmass has resulted in areas of freezing spray across the lake as strong winds, near freezing lake temperatures, and high wave heights. As a result, a Freezing Spray Warning remains in effect through 2PM this afternoon. As winds weaken and slightly warmer air moves over the lake on Friday into Saturday, the potential for freezing spray will diminish. By Sunday, the arrival of the coldest temperatures this year and additional gusty winds will likely once again result in heavy freezing spray and the potential for additional headlines.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ008-018-028>031. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for OHZ009-019. Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for OHZ010>014-020>022-089. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for OHZ023- 032-033. PA...Lake Effect Snow Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for PAZ001>003. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ142>144. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning until 2 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ144>148-164>168. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for LEZ145>149.