textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast remains on track with thunderstorms, some possibly severe, late Thursday into Thursday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Active weather returns on Thursday as a cold front approaches the region. Thunderstorms, some expected to reach severe limits, will move south across the forecast area late Thursday into Thursday night. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible.

2) High pressure behind the cold front will usher in dry, but cold, conditions on Friday. Temperatures moderate through the weekend. Precipitation chances return early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry weather comes to an end on Thursday. Some isolated to scattered showers, maybe some weak embedded thunderstorms, push northeast across the local area Thursday morning. However, most of the area should remain dry through the first half of Thursday with high temperatures rising into the mid 60s to low 70s. The main show comes late Thursday into Thursday night as a strong cold front pushes south across the Lower Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley region. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of the cold front Thursday evening. Timing remains variable across hi-res guidance with the 12Z/Wed forecast cycle trending a few hours later. but anticipate convection to roughly occur from 6 PM through 2 am. midnight.

The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather further east towards the OH/PA border. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) remains across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. All hazards will be possible in any severe thunderstorm that develops given sufficient deep layer shear, roughly 50-60 knots, and moderate surface-based instability of ~750-1000 J/kg.

In addition to severe weather, heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out. The entire forecast area has been highlighted as a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) in the Weather Prediction Center's Day 2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Thursday. PWAT values will reach or exceed 1.25" which is well above the 90th percentile for late March. Current QPF amounts Thursday afternoon into the overnight hours range between 1.25-1.50 inches, with locally higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGE 2... The cold front will exit to the south on Friday with reinforcing high pressure building across the region behind it. Much cooler behind the front with highs on Friday in the low 40s. Anticipate for dry weather through the weekend under high pressure with temperatures moderating into the mid 50s by Sunday as the high begins to exit to the east. Unsettled weather returns early next week as a series of upper level shortwaves move overhead. Highs in the mid 60s to upper 70s as we enter April.

AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/

VFR across the TAF sites this evening with primarily VFR to persist through much of the TAF period. A warm front will lift northeast through the area Thursday morning with scattered showers possible at CAK/YNG. Some thunder is possible at ERI given the early afternoon arrival of the front.

Otherwise, attention will turn towards the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop along a cold front late Thursday afternoon and evening. Do think coverage will be fairly widespread along the front as it moves south across the TAF sites generally around or after 0Z, so have included prob30s at CLE/ERI at this time. Confidence remains low on if storms may fire ahead of the front Thursday afternoon and the forecast will continue to evolve as new data becomes available. In terms of impacts, large hail appears the most concerning at this time with a more conditional threat for strong winds and/or tornadoes.

Winds are generally out of the south to southwest this evening, around 10 knots. Winds at 2kft will increase out of the west to southwest overnight, around 40 knots, introducing a brief window for LLWS into Thursday morning. Winds will increase out of the south to southwest Thursday afternoon, 12 to 18 knots with periodic gusts of 22 to 25 knots. Abrupt wind shifts towards the north are expected behind the cold front Thursday evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR ceilings may linger into Friday afternoon. Non-VFR possible in scattered rain and/or isolated thunderstorms late Monday.

MARINE

Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots are expected tonight into Thursday afternoon with winds shifting to the north/northwest and increasing to 10 to 20 knots behind a cold front Thursday evening through Friday morning. The strongest winds and highest waves will likely occur in the nearshore zones of the central basin, where a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed. North/northwest winds will diminish to 10 to 15 knots Friday afternoon through Friday night with winds diminishing below 10 knots by early Saturday morning. Winds will generally be west/southwest at 10 to 15 knots over the weekend, although increasing offshore flow may necessitate Small Craft Advisories Sunday night into Monday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.