textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across the eastern half of the area into this evening. No significant impacts are expected.

2) The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be late Thursday into Friday as a cold front moves across the region. Heavy rain is possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... The latest satellite and surface observations reveal a weak surface trough lingering across the eastern half of the area this afternoon. Although some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible into this evening, especially near the OH/PA border, the overall intensity and coverage of the precipitation will be limited compared to the previous couple of days, given a lack of forcing and increased mid-level dry air. Thus, not anticipating any significant impacts with the rain, other than a few brief heavy downpours. The weak surface trough appears to linger into Wednesday, albeit a bit further east, limiting rain chances to mainly NW PA or along the OH/PA border in the afternoon.

As was the case over the past several nights, weak flow and a moist ground will result in patchy to areas of fog tonight into Wednesday morning, particularly inland across North-Central and Northeast Ohio.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Attention then turns towards the next low pressure system and cold front Thursday into Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will be approaching from the north along and ahead of the cold front Thursday night, but also from the west Friday morning as a shortwave tracks east along the front into the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley region. Will continue to monitor timing and location trends for this shortwave. Though we can't rule out a stronger storm or two with this system, heavy rain and isolated flooding still appears to be the primary concern with PWATs approaching or exceeding 1.80 inches.

AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

VFR will prevail through the first half of the night as surface high pressure builds down from the north, but lingering low- level moisture and an inversion combined with small temp/dew point spreads will cause widespread mist and fog to develop late tonight. Trended visibilities lower in this set of TAFs compared to the 18Z set since confidence is increasing for widespread fog and mist in the 08-13Z timeframe. Rapid improvement is expected through mid morning Wednesday, with VFR through the day.

Winds will turn light and variable tonight before becoming W to NW Wednesday morning and increasing to 5-10 knots through the day.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with scattered thunderstorms Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon.

MARINE

Generally good marine conditions expected through the week with winds of 15 knots or less. High pressure over the Central Great Lakes will result in a land/lake breeze tonight/Wednesday. Southwesterly winds expected Thursday ahead of a front approaching from the north. The front will be slow to pass with winds eventually shifting out of the north/northeast by Friday night. Next potential for showers and thunderstorms that could impact marine conditions is during the Thursday - Friday time frame.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.