textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast remains on track.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lingering showers and gusty winds expected through tonight. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through 6 PM this evening.

2) Mainly dry with isolated showers possible on Friday. Widespread rain chances Sunday and Monday. Below average temperatures are expected to stick around.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Low pressure system will continue to exit to the northeast while the upper level trough glides east across the region this evening. Winds aloft remain between 35-45 knots this afternoon which will maintain breezy to gusty conditions, particularly along the Lake Erie lakeshore in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Area sustained winds remain generally westerly at 20-30 mph with occasional gusts of 35-40 mph. Have maintained the Wind Advisory for portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through 6 PM this evening. Winds will decrease through tonight as high pressure enters from the west.

Aside from the gusty conditions, a surface cold front will continue to exit to the east this afternoon. Some isolated showers will remain possible along and east of the I-71 corridor through this evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Any lingering showers will diminish later this evening as high pressure begins to build across the region from the west. Expect for Friday and Saturday to remain primarily dry. However, some isolated afternoon showers may develop across inland portions of the forecast area on Friday.

More widespread rain showers will come Sunday night into Monday as another low pressure system moves through the Upper Ohio Valley on Monday. Latest NBM probabilities for 1.50+ inches rainfall Sunday night into Monday generally range between 50-60% for the majority of the forecast area. With that, WPC has included the western two- thirds of our forecast area in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall during that timeframe.

Cooler conditions expected this weekend into early next week behind today's cold front. Highs will generally rise into the mid to upper 70s each afternoon with overnight lows in the low to mid 50s.

AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/

At the surface, a cold front appeared to extend SW'ward from north and west of KERI to east and south of KLNN to north and west of KMFD to east and south of KMNN. This front continues moving E'ward and should exit the rest of our region by ~20Z/Thurs. Behind the front, a ridge builds slowly from the northern and central Great Plains through 18Z/Fri. Ahead of the cold front, our regional surface winds trend SW'erly to W'erly, while W'erly to WNW'erly winds are expected behind the front. Surface winds around 15 to 20 knots, gusting up to 25 to 35 knots, are expected through 00Z/Fri. Thereafter, winds are expected to be around 5 to 10 knots through 18Z/Fri. Isolated wind gusts up to 20 knots are expected after 14Z/Fri.

Primarily VFR and dry weather are expected through 18Z/Fri. However, isolated rain showers with brief MVFR are possible along and ahead of the cold front, including at KCAK and KYNG, through this late afternoon. Note: scattered to broken diurnal cumuliform clouds with bases near 5kft AGL are expected through this early evening and again late Fri morning through 18Z/Fri.

Outlook...Isolated showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are possible Friday afternoon through early evening. Periodic thunderstorms and/or showers with non-VFR are also possible Saturday morning through Tuesday.

MARINE

The Low Water Advisory has been cancelled and the Gale Warning will be allowed to expire at 6 PM EDT this evening. Will continue to reevaluate the Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement already in effect based on trends in observations and our official forecast. A trough lingers over Lake Erie through Friday as its parent and potent low wobbles ENE'ward from southern QC to NB. WSW'erly to WNW'erly winds initially around 20 to 30 knots ease to around 10 to 15 knots by midnight tonight. Waves initially as large as 5 to 10 feet with occasional 12 footers should subside to 4 feet or less by midnight tonight and then to 3 feet or less by daybreak Friday. On Friday, WSW'erly to WNW'erly winds around 10 to 15 knots, flirting with 20 knots at times are expected. Waves of mainly 3 feet or less with occasional 4 footers are forecast.

During Friday night through Saturday night, a high pressure ridge overspreads Lake Erie slowly and from the west. This ridge should be accompanied by primarily W'erly to NW'erly winds around 10 to 15 knots. Waves of 3 feet or less are expected. On Sunday, the ridge will crest E'ward across Lake Erie and be accompanied by variable winds around 5 to 10 knots. These winds are expected to trend onshore during the late morning through early evening due to lake breeze development. Waves should be 2 feet or less.

During Sunday night through Monday, a trough should affect Lake Erie as a deepening low wobbles ENE'ward from the Mid MS Valley toward central NY. Winds should become SE'erly to E'erly and freshen to around 15 to 25 knots Sunday night before backing toward N'erly and easing slightly to around 10 to 20 knots on Monday. Waves as large as 3 to 5 feet are expected. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed. N'erly to W'erly winds around 5 to 15 knots should impact Lake Erie Monday night through Tuesday as a ridge builds from the north-central United States and vicinity. Waves of mainly 3 feet or less are forecast, but occasional 4 footers are expected Monday night.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ003- 007-009>012-089. Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for OHZ011>014-089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001. Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001-002. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>144. Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for LEZ145>149- 165>169.