textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather pattern this week will result in multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms.

2) Cool temperatures today and tonight before above average temperatures return Sunday and persist through the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure and quiet weather conditions today will give way to an active week of weather as multiple low pressure systems are expected to traverse the Great Lakes region. Beginning on Sunday, a warm front will lift north, presenting a chance of showers to develop across the northern tier of counties, although the best support for showers should be north of the CWA. On Monday, the parent low centered over northern Quebec will move a cold front east, presenting the chance of thunderstorms by Monday afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes a bit more. This pattern is set to essentially repeat itself throughout the week, presenting the chance for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. There is a non- zero chance for some of the thunderstorms to be strong to severe, especially by midweek when there should be the strongest synoptic support and potential for afternoon destabilization. At this point, SPC does not have the area highlighted in any risk for this week, but will continue to monitor any updates to that in coming forecasts.

With thunderstorms this time of year comes the potential for heavy rainfall as well. Current models suggest PWAT values throughout this week lingering in the 1-1.5" range, but given the progressive nature of these systems, not expecting any flooding concerns at this point, even with the antecedent wet conditions from recent rainfall.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Temperatures today and tonight will continue to be influenced by the Canadian high pressure that has built over the area, keeping conditions cool. Lows tonight will once again drop into the mid 30s to low 40s, but this looks to be the last time it gets this cold in the near future. Late tomorrow into Monday, a warm front will lift north which will mark the transition to daily highs in the 70s all week with overnight lows in the upper 50s into the 60s. As reference, the average high for this time of year is in the upper 50s to low 60s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s.

AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail tonight through Sunday with fair weather skies. Scattered to broken ceilings mainly above 10K feet will increase during this TAF period. Winds will shift around as high pressure exits the region. Winds will start out from the East 5 to 10 knots tonight. Southerly winds will increase on Sunday 12 to 18 knots with gusts around 25 knots are expected by the afternoon.

Outlook...Occasional non-VFR conditions are expected in periodic showers and thunderstorms Monday through Thursday.

MARINE

High pressure over the region will shift east tonight allowing winds to develop out of the east/southeast tonight, then out of the south on Sunday. Winds increase to 15-25 knots Sunday night as a low level jet moves overhead and may be near Small Craft Advisory conditions at times into Monday. Winds tend to remain generally out of the southwest through mid-week at 10-20 knots but could be impacted by thunderstorms as a frontal boundary sets up just north of Lake Erie.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.