textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The risk for severe weather has ended across the forecast area this evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Strong winds expected Friday with passing low pressure system.

2) Active pattern continues through middle of next week with a series of low pressure systems moving through the region.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE #1: A potent low pressure system will be moving into the Great Lakes region Thursday night into Friday morning. Winds in the low- levels will begin increasing to 50-60 knots at 925mb with warm air advection by Friday morning. Precipitation will be minimal for the most part though will help mix down the winds to the surface in the afternoon. Winds will be gusting up to 60 mph with the strongest of the gusts being west of the I-71 corridor. Additionally, winds will be gusting in NE OH and NW PA in the early afternoon along the ridge as winds will be out of the south to southwest and will be downsloping. A Wind Advisory will likely be needed for the areas west of I-71 and in NE OH and NW PA. Winds will begin to subside Friday evening as a cold front passes through and winds back to be out of the west to northwest.

KEY MESSAGE #2: An active pattern will continue through the middle of next week as an upper level trough sets up across eastern CONUS. A series of low pressure system will move through the Great Lakes beginning on Friday. For Friday, outside of the winds mentioned in the key message above, precipitation should be minimal though will begin as a rain/snow mix due to southerly flow and warm air advection. Temperatures will warm above freezing throughout the day and all precipitation will change over to rain and should exit the area by Friday evening. Another low pressure system will move into the region late Saturday night as a warm front lifts north. Precipitation will start off as snow, with some accumulation possible, then change over to rain as the warm front moves through. As the cold front moves into the region, rain will be the primary precipitation type then change over quickly behind the cold front with much colder air being ushered in. With this colder air, there is potential for some lingering lake effect snow showers across NE OH and NW PA Sunday night into Tuesday. Given the event is several days away, finer details of impacts and totals remain uncertain.

AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/

Showers are moving east across the area with a cold front, although most of the activity is now to the east of KTOL/KFDY. A few rumbles of thunder can't be ruled out in the vicinity of KCAK/KYNG in the first hour or two of the TAF period, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this point. Rain may very briefly mix with snow before precip ends later tonight. Otherwise, a mixed bag of MVFR/IFR is expected tonight before conditions improve from west to east as high pressure begins to build into the region early Thursday. VFR conditions will likely develop at far eastern terminals by 15Z or so.

Breezy northwest winds are expected behind the cold front with sustained winds to 15 to 20 knots and gusts to 25 to 30 knots anticipated through about 06Z. Winds will diminish a bit late tonight, although gusts to 15 to 25 knots are still likely through the majority of the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered rain/snow showers on Friday. Gusty west to southwest winds of at least 35 to 40 knots are expected on Friday. Non-VFR likely to return in rain/snow showers Saturday night into Sunday.

MARINE

A week of active marine weather is expected for Lake Erie. Low pressure with a cold front will move through the region tonight and allow for increasing northwest flow over the basin. A Small Craft Advisory remains for the nearshore waters of Lake Erie through Thursday for elevated winds and waves. Thursday will have a reprieve with high pressure entering with backing flow. Friday will be the most impactful day of the period with a strong low pressure system moving through the region and a stronger cold front crossing the lake. Southerly flow will quickly increase on Friday to 30 kts and gale force winds are possible with the cold frontal passage on Friday evening. Have gone ahead and issued the Gale Watch for the entire lake. High pressure will quickly enter for Saturday and winds will be quick to subside. Another strong low pressure system will target the region early next week and may have additional strong winds with elevated waves on the lake. More marine headlines may be needed.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ142>144. Gale Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for LEZ142>147-162>167. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for LEZ145>149. Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for LEZ148-149-168-169.