textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes from the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Below average temperatures and periodic rain showers will continue through Wednesday.

2) Dry and more seasonable weather will return by the end of the week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... The latest radar and satellite imagery reveal a large area of cloud cover and occasional light rain showers and/or drizzle extending from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic Coast, associated with an elongated surface trough to the north of a stationary front. Initially, periodic light rain and/or drizzle is expected today, generally east of the I-71 corridor further away from the better forcing. However, this surface trough will gradually move west across the Ohio Valley into Wednesday as high pressure begins building south across the Eastern Great Lakes, resulting in more widespread showers overnight into Wednesday afternoon. Confidence is increasing for a few thunderstorms to accompany this activity, especially near the I-71 corridor as the latest guidance indicates a narrow swath of elevated instability > 500 J/kg. The weak forcing in place should limit rainfall amounts to less than an inch, though localized higher amounts, especially in thunderstorms, remain possible. Rain chances will quickly diminish Wednesday evening and overnight as high pressure continues to build south into the area.

Periodic rain showers and cloud cover will contribute to below average daytime temperatures in the 60s or perhaps even upper 50s at times and lows in the 50s or upper 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will build south across the Great Lakes by the end of the week and persist through the weekend. Initially, high pressure and the departing chilly air mass could result in a favorable scenario for some lows in the upper 30s to develop, particularly across inland Northwest Pennsylvania, though 40s should be more common elsewhere. The air mass will gradually moderate through the weekend with high pressure in place. Temperatures will return to the upper 60s to low 70s by Sunday and perhaps even higher into the mid to upper 70s by early next week.

AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

Light rain and drizzle/mist is slowly pivoting north and west across the region as the surface trough drifts a little farther NW. This will continue through 04-06Z bringing IFR cigs and vis. KTOL, KFDY, and KERI will miss the worst of it, with KERI missing it entirely. Behind this round of rain, MVFR to IFR cigs and pockets of low vis in mist will persist overnight. The lowest cigs and vis will occur around KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG, while KERI should stay entirely VFR. Moving into Wednesday, another round of showers will start to spread across the area in the morning, and this could include some scattered convection with heavier downpours in the afternoon. Have showers increasing from south to north during the day Wednesday, with PROB30 groups for lower cigs and vis in the afternoon where heavier downpours occur. In general, cigs will remain MVFR to IFR Wednesday, with slightly better conditions at KFDY and KTOL and completely dry and VFR at KERI.

NE winds will continue to average 10-15 knots through Wednesday, with occasional gusts of 20-25 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and occasional thunderstorms through Thursday.

MARINE

Rough marine conditions will continue across Lake Erie through Wednesday with persistent east to northeast winds of 15 to 25 knots and gusts up to 30 knots, resulting in wave heights of 4 to 7 feet. Conditions will remain choppy on Thursday, perhaps even briefly reaching Small Craft criteria, as northeast flow only gradually improves to 15 to 20 knots. Winds will continue to gradually weaken on Friday through the weekend, though will remain out of the north to northeast with the building high pressure to the north, 10 to 15 knots.

Given the lingering surface trough draped across Lake Erie, can't rule out a low chance of waterspouts with any showers that develop into this evening, particularly across the central and western basins of the lake.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for OHZ003- 007-009>012-089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ142>148. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ149.