textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast remains generally on track. Low temperatures have trended a little colder on Thursday night and Friday night with light to calm winds. Wind chills have therefore trended warmer. Temperatures have also trended slightly down over the weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Very cold weather continues through the weekend, including the potential for record low temperatures at some locations on Thursday night and Friday night. A threat of cold exposure and damage to infrastructure will continue.

2) Light snow is possible in the snowbelt region of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania overnight into Thursday morning and may result in minor travel impacts.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for portions of Northwest and North Central Ohio tonight with wind chill values as low as -16 overnight. The wind chill remains below zero at most locations this afternoon while high temperatures range from 8-14 degrees. Southwest winds are gusting as high as 20 mph this afternoon but will drop to 5 to 10 mph tonight. Some cloud and even chances of precipitation will tend to keep low temperatures tonight above freezing in the snowbelt region while lows in the Advisory area drop to between zero and 5 below.

Strong high pressure over the Upper Midwest will expand across the southern Great Lakes Region Thursday night through Friday night. While cloud cover remains somewhat in question, the potential exists for maximized radiational cooling where winds are nearly calm and a deep snowpack remains across the area. Temperatures continue to gradually trend downward in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania for Thursday night/Friday morning where confidence is higher in a good window of mostly clear skies. Record lows are in the forecast at several locations in the east. If we do experience ideal cooling conditions, actual lows could end up several degrees cooler in valley and interior locations than what is forecast but this will depend on the window of clearing. Scattered to broken mid level cloud may be a factor across Northwest Ohio and temperatures have trended slightly up in NW Ohio. Very cold conditions are expected again Friday night as a ridge remains oriented across the area at the surface. The actual temperature forecast remains dependent on the pressure gradient and degree of cloud cover. Low clouds are only expected to be scattered but could have some degree of high level cloud, depending on the evolution of the upper level trough digging south into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. The actual low temperatures will be more of a concern on Friday and Saturday night with lesser impacts from the wind/wind chill. Will continue to evaluate the temperature forecast over the coming days and additional Cold Weather Advisories may be needed. While temperatures have trended slightly down over the weekend, we do expect gradual improvement early next week. While temperatures remain below normal through the extended forecast, highs do approach 30 degrees by Wednesday.

Impacts from the cold continue to be a concern, both to persons spending time outdoors, and also to infrastructure with the prolonged stretch of cold conditions. The extended stretch of cold weather, with sub-zero values heading into the weekend, could result in increased infrastructure problems such as burst pipes and dead car batteries. People need to continue to limit time outdoors and wear protective clothing.

KEY MESSAGE 2... While the sun has been out across much of northern Ohio today, a light band of lake effect snow is focused over Lake Erie towards Lake Ontario. A trough, both at the surface and aloft will swing southeast across the eastern Great Lakes tonight. Flow will veer off Lake Erie this evening while moisture increases and expect to see lake enhanced snow showers push into the snowbelt. Light accumulations are possible of generally two inches or less through Thursday morning. Subsidence increases upstream rather quickly on Thursday and expect to see diminishing snow showers and even clouds. The exception would be if a band persists off Lake Huron into Pennsylvania but given the dry air this contribution looks limited.

AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/

Predominantly VFR conditions are being observed across the area this evening and expected to persist through this TAF period. The exception to this will be across portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania due to a trough axis pivoting over the area and lake effect snow showers possibly returning tonight. In these snow showers, periods of IFR visibilities are possible, especially at KERI. Across the remainder of the area, ceilings will generally linger between 3-5kft, although some brief period of ceilings less than 3kft are possible on Thursday.

Current southwest winds of 5-10 knots will gradually become northwesterly at 5-10 knots by Thursday afternoon. Near the end of this period, winds are expected to become light and variable.

Outlook...Mainly VFR expected through this weekend with the exception of diurnal low-end VFR or MVFR ceilings and transient light snow showers. A more widespread non-VFR threat may arrive on Monday in snow showers with a clipper.

MARINE

Quiet marine conditions are expected into early next week with winds less than 20 knots. Southwest flow this evening will shift back towards the west to northwest behind a cold front tonight. Winds will then diminish to 10 knots or less on Saturday as arctic high pressure builds in from the west. Winds will increase slightly into the 10 to 15 knot range by Sunday, before shifting back towards the southwest on Monday ahead of the next system, 10 to 15 knots.

The arctic airmass and relatively light wind field across the region will allow ice on Lake Erie to further expand and thicken through the weekend.

CLIMATE

Record low temperatures are possible on Friday and Saturday. Here are the daily record low minimum temperatures for January 30 and 31:

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 01-30 -10(2019) -10(2019) -4(1873) -6(1965) -8(1965) -4(2019) 01-31 -10(2019) -7(2019) -5(1971) -5(1948) -9(1948) -6(1899)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Thursday for OHZ006-008- 009-017>019-027>033-036>038-047. PA...None. MARINE...None.