textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes. Still looking at a good 0.75-1.30" of rain across central and eastern portions of our area through early Wednesday with low-end flooding potential.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread rain is expected through early Wednesday, with a few isolated thunderstorms also possible through this evening. Some minor/nuisance flooding is possible in prone locations.

2) Quieter and cooler weather with limited frost potential returns for the second half of the week.

3) A more unsettled pattern with occasional rain chances returns late Friday through the beginning of next week, but with generally low potential for any hazardous weather.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE #1:

A cold front is progressing southeast across the area this afternoon. Can not rule out some weak convection firing along the cold front from the Youngstown area into inland Northwest PA late this afternoon, though otherwise the bulk of the rain is post-frontal and beginning to spread in from the west as of this writing. This cold front is initially shallow and sloped, so even though the surface front will clear our area to the southeast this evening it will take until early Wednesday morning for the mid-level front to clear the area. The combination of the upper-reaches of the front and a couple of shortwaves moving east-northeast across the region will lead to continued lift and a fairly widespread/persistent rain tonight, with rain exiting to the east very late tonight into Wednesday morning. By later this evening any elevated instability should be used up, so most of the rain will be more stratiform in nature outside of limited convection potential over the next several hours, which is confined our south and southeast.

Rainfall amounts of 0.75-1.30" remain in the forecast across central and eastern portions of our area through early Wednesday, with more along the lines of 0.30-0.75" across the Toledo area. Locally higher rainfall amounts may still play out if a corridor of organized convection can evolve late this afternoon or evening, though that overall concern has decreased a bit. Overall, the idea of some nuisance water issues with perhaps some minor river flooding at a prone location (such as Killbuck or Phalanx Station) should handle it given the marginal/spread out duration of the rain.

Lows will drop well into the 40s tonight as cooler weather returns, with highs on Wednesday in the mid to upper 50s. Wednesday will not feature much sun but will generally be once rain exits early. A few sprinkles/showers may linger through midday across parts of Northeast OH and Northwest PA...and a shortwave may bring a few sprinkles or light showers from southwest to northeast across the area during the afternoon and early evening, though weak lift and a drying column decrease confidence in measurable rain occurring with this feature.

KEY MESSAGE #2:

Mainly quiet and cool weather is expected through the end of the week. Beneath cold air aloft, a shortwave and subtle surface trough may be enough to spark a few showers across Northeast OH or Northwest PA Thursday afternoon, though much of the area should stay dry. A few showers are possible on Friday as a warm front lifts across the area, though overall coverage looks low with any rain amounts light.

Highs will remain in the 50s for Thursday before recovering into the 60s (outside of the higher terrain of Northwest PA) for Friday. The cooler airmass does bring some frost potential Wednesday and Thursday nights, though neither is an ideal setup for it. A weak lingering pressure gradient is expected Wednesday night with some lingering clouds possible across Northeast OH/Northwest PA, with increasing clouds and a tightening pressure gradient expected for Thursday night as high pressure departs to the southeast and a warm front approaches. Still, some patchier frost may occur either or both nights in typically colder inland locales.

KEY MESSAGE #3:

A more active pattern is expected to return Friday night through early next week, on the southwestern periphery of deeper troughing over southeast Canada. Systems are expected to move through Friday night and again Sunday into Monday, each bringing a window of elevated rainfall chances. Despite the unsettled pattern, neither system currently appears to bring a notable severe weather or heavy rain concern. Temperatures will generally be near normal this weekend, trending a bit cooler early next week.

AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/

Showers have started moving into the area with a cold front and expect rain to fill in over the next several hours and continue through early Wednesday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the leading edge of precipitation at eastern terminals late this afternoon into early this evening. Confidence in the placement/overall likelihood of storms is low so have PROB30 groups for thunder for the time being. Most locations will experience a prolonged period of MVFR/IFR conditions in lower ceilings and low visibility in rain, although KTOL may be spared from longer duration sub-VFR conditions. Confidence in IFR and periods of LIFR conditions is highest at KCLE/KMFD/KCAK/KYNG/KERI. Rain will gradually end from west to east starting early Wednesday morning with precipitation ending at KYNG and KERI by no later than around 15Z Wednesday morning. Lower ceilings will likely persist for a few hours after rain ends.

Winds will be breezy at 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots ahead of the cold front with wind direction quickly shifting to the north/northwest behind the front by this evening. Winds will diminish to 10 knots or less behind the front with similar flow continuing through 18Z Wednesday.

Outlook...Periods of non-VFR possible in periodic showers Friday through the weekend. Thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening.

MARINE

A cold front will move southeast of the lake this evening and expect winds to shift to the north/northwest and diminish to 10 knots or less tonight through Wednesday. From there, winds will generally be out of the west/northwest at 10 knots or less with periods of winds to 15 knots possible late Wednesday night and Thursday night. Southwest winds will develop late week and into the weekend with winds and waves likely remaining below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.