textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

PoPs and QPF have trended further north for tonight, resulting in an increased risk of heavy rainfall in the southern half of the area. Shower/thunderstorm chances are also increasing for Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and thunderstorms will be possible through tonight, with the potetnial for heavy rainfall and localized flooding possible in the southern half of the area tonight.

2) An unsettled weather pattern returns this weekend with periods of showers and thunderstorms likely.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front will ever so slowly work south into the region, then slow its forward progression this afternoon. More widespread showers and storms are advertized to arrive tonight as deeper moisture moves into the area. 12Z CAMs have shift a bit further north with the greatest potential for showers and storms across the southern half but there still is some uncertainty. For now, will stick with previous thinking with the highest QPF axis and moderate to heavy rainfall generally south of US-30 this evening into early Thursday morning as PWATs increase to nearly 2 inches. The main concern overnight will be training of the showers/storms as they move west to east parallel to the frontal boundary. Soils are saturated in the southern part of the area after recent heavy rainfall so it won't take much to flood if heavy rainfall does materialize in the local area. WPC has placed our area in a Slight ERO (Level 2 of 4) to account for the northward shift in heavy rainfall potential.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Dry weather is expected as high pressure builds into the region Thursday night through Friday, but unsettled weather will return to the region over the weekend as a series of upper troughs push across the Great Lakes. The most widespread showers and thunderstorms will likely occur Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening as the first upper trough moves east across the area. The region will be in the warm sector so there will be plenty of moisture and likely sufficient instability to warrant at least an isolated severe weather threat, but confidence in the exact timing and placement of storms remains relatively low this far out. Will need to continue to monitor the severe weather potential in the coming days. Additional showers and storms are likely across NE OH and NW PA as the secondary trough pushes across the region Sunday, although it's likely that precip associated with this feature will be lake-enhanced.

AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

The southward pushing cold front will stall over the area, and additional showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening into tonight mainly along and south of US-30, though it's possible they could extend farther north (there's some uncertainty in this regard). For now, highest confidence is along our southern TAF sites (including KFDY, KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG). Thunderstorm potential is mainly before midnight. Non-VFR may occur with lower visibility in heavier showers/storms.

Outlook...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected areawide on Saturday, before becoming more focused along the lakeshore areas of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Saturday night. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible east of I-77 on Sunday.

MARINE

A cold front will ever so slowly push south through the lake today. Southwest winds around 15 to 20 knots are possible, especially in the central and eastern basin, producing waves in the 2 to 4 ft range. There is a moderate risk of rip currents.

High pressure builds in overhead by Thursday night before departing to the east Friday and Friday night.

Low pressure builds into the Great Lakes region on Saturday with showers and thunderstorms likely affecting Lake Erie, especially during the afternoon. Strong wind gusts may be possible. Southwest flow of around 10 to 15 knots is expected initially before the cold front crosses Saturday evening and northwest flow around 15 knots produces waves in the 2 to 4 ft range Saturday night into Sunday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.