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WHAT HAS CHANGED

5:08 PM EST Jan 27th, 2026: Increased POP's to 100% through about 8 PM this evening for locations roughly along and east of I-71 to account for the expected persistence and progression of the linear snow squall along the SE'ward-moving cold front. The front and snow squall were located along a roughly Mentor to Mount Gilead, OH line at 5:08 PM. The front and linear snow squall are expected to exit the rest of our CWA by 8 PM this evening. Low-level convergence/moist ascent along the front will continue to release potential instability in the lowest 1 km AGL. The forcing for ascent and release of instability will continue to result in strong, maximized ascent within a cloudy DGZ about 1 km deep and therefore heavy snow production. Thus, the linear snow squall is expected to produce up to about one inch of quick snow accumulation, be accompanied by near-zero visibility, and generate surface wind gusts up to 30 to 40 mph as the snow squall coincides with 0-1 km AGL mean wind speeds near 30 knots.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Light snow is expected areawide this afternoon and evening with some blowing snow favored west of I-71 and along the lakeshore. Additional light snow accumulations and blowing snow may result in travel impacts through tonight.

2) Extended cold weather, including the potential for record low temperatures, will continue through the weekend, allowing for elevated risks for cold exposure and damage to infrastructure.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front will move through the local area this afternoon and evening, supporting another round of areawide snow showers with some accumulations of a couple tenths to one inch of snow for most. There may be some brief periods of reduced visibility with some more organized snow showers with gusty winds entering with the front. However, suspect that visibility will be greater than one-quarter of a mile and this front will not produce an organized snow squall with immediate road impacts. There will be Special Weather Statements issued with this band of snow moving through the region.

Behind the front, there will be the opportunity for some lake enhanced snow showers to linger through the evening with -20 C 850 mb temperatures overhead. The usual locations in far NE OH and NW PA will see some residual snow with upstream connections to Lake Huron. However, there is a large gap in the ice on Lake Erie offshore of Erie and Lorain Counties and there could be some additional snow for areas west of Cleveland in North Central Ohio. Therefore, have these areas as a target for possibly 1-2" of snow through tonight.

After this system, the pattern will shift to a dry synoptic pattern with high pressure in place and additional snow chances through early next week will be limited. The colder spells mentioned below will increase Lake Erie ice coverage and should further limit any snow courtesy of lake effect.

KEY MESSAGE 2... With the reinforcing, Arctic cold front moving through this afternoon and evening, temperatures will remain frigid through the weekend. High temperatures through Sunday will stay below 20 degrees with single digit high temperatures likely on Friday and Saturday for many locations. Low temperatures will be especially cold with single digit to below zero temperatures through at least Monday night. Friday night into Saturday may be the coldest with many locations in the double digits below zero if winds can calm and clouds can stay out of the region with high pressure.

For tonight, the Cold Weather Advisory will continue as advertised through 11 AM on Wednesday with wind chill values in the -15 to -22F range. For Wednesday night and Thursday night, low temperatures will be colder and below zero for most folks. However, with high pressure building overhead, winds will diminish significantly and there may not be a true wind chill for many locations. However, any wind would introduce the need for more Cold Weather Advisories. As said before, Friday night into Saturday will be the coldest night and temperatures alone may merit the need for Cold Weather Advisories. However, if some wind can develop, there would be the need for at least advisories, if not some warnings in Northwest and North Central Ohio. There will be some level of moderation in temperature on Sunday and Monday nights and wind chills below zero are likely but probably stay above advisory-level.

This extended period of cold temperatures will bring increased risk of infrastructure impacts due to the cold, including burst pipes, water main breaks, and dead batteries. The prolonged nature of the cold will also pose a continued risk of exposure to more vulnerable populations. These impacts will continue through at least Monday.

AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

At the surface, a SE'ward-moving cold front was located along a roughly KERI to KYNG to KPHD line at 23:30Z/Tues. This front should exit the rest of our region by 01Z/Wed. Behind the front, a ridge builds from the northern and central Great Plains through 00Z/Thurs. The cold front passage will cause SW'erly winds around 10 to 15 knots, gusting up to about 20 to 25 knots, to veer to WNW'erly. Then, beginning around 04Z/Wed and continuing through the end of the TAF period, our regional surface winds will back to SW'erly and be around 5 to 15 knots in magnitude. Gusts will cease for a time. However, the SW'erly winds are expected to gust up to 20 knots or so Wed afternoon through 00Z/Thurs.

Scattered to widespread low-level clouds with bases primarily near 2kft to 3.5kft AGL are expected through the TAF period. The cold front passage in our region will be accompanied by a band of steady to heavy snow showers with brief IFR to LIFR and brief gusts up to 25 to 35 knots. Behind the front, scattered and periodic Lake Erie lake-effect snow (LES) showers are expected to impact NE OH and NW PA through 00Z/Thurs as mean low-level flow varies between NW'erly and SW'erly. Primarily MVFR are forecast with these LES showers, but brief IFR to LIFR are expected before 04Z/Wed and are possible after roughly 20Z/Wed.

Also behind the front, scattered/periodic Lake Michigan LES showers should impact KTOL/KFDY/KMFD until roughly 04Z/Wed. Brief MVFR are expected with these LES showers. Otherwise, dry weather and VFR visibility are expected behind the cold front.

Outlook...Additional periods of non-VFR with clouds and snow showers are expected through this weekend. Greatest chances exist in NE OH and NW PA, where periodic lake-effect snow downwind of mainly ice-covered Lake Erie should occur.

MARINE

Southwest winds to 30 knots on Lake Erie will veer to westerly behind a cold front through this evening and decrease overnight. Winds will tend to remain below 20 knots as they vary from southwesterly to northwesterly through Thursday. High pressure builds into the region to end the week with winds generally 15 knots or less through Sunday. Lake Erie is approximately 95% ice covered and continued ice growth is expected through the weekend with arctic air over the region. Some shifting of the ice is possible but will thicken as the cold air persists.

CLIMATE

Record low temperatures are possible later this week. Here are the daily record low minimum temperatures for January 29 through 31:

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 01-29 -9(1963) -14(1977) -17(1873) -13(1977) -12(1977) -10(1977) 01-30 -10(2019) -10(2019) -4(1873) -6(1965) -8(1965) -4(2019) 01-31 -10(2019) -7(2019) -5(1971) -5(1948) -9(1948) -6(1899)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Wednesday for OHZ003- 006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089. PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ001>003. MARINE...None.