textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Overall, the forecast remains on track and significant changes were needed with this update. There is still potential for a brief period of freezing rain across NW PA and possibly NE OH early Tuesday morning, but confidence remains low.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A brief period of freezing rain is possible across the northeastern part of the area early Tuesday morning, however confidence and impacts remain low at this point.

2) A warmer and wet weather pattern is expected Tuesday through the weekend. Nuisance flooding is possible in typical problem spots.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A warm front will begin to lift north from the Ohio Valley tonight into Tuesday and a shortwave will eject into the area early Tuesday morning. This will likely result in scattered light precipitation lifting northeast towards the area late tonight into early Tuesday. A brief period of mixed precipitation or freezing rain remains possible at the onset, although confidence in overall precipitation chances and the resulting impacts remains low. The precipitation will likely combat lingering low-level dry air as it moves into the area, which could result in drier weather, virga, and/or very light precipitation with more widespread precipitation beginning after temperatures warm above freezing after sunrise. The freezing rain potential will be higher if precip starts earlier than currently forecast. Surface temperatures will also be quite marginal and will dictate precipitation type; colder temperatures will result in a higher likelihood of freezing rain. Either way, the greatest likelihood of freezing rain is across portions of interior NW PA (primarily Crawford County) and possibly portions of far northeastern Ohio. Ice accumulations should be light (a trace to maybe a few hundredths of an inch) and any resulting impacts should improve as temperatures warm above freezing during the day Thursday. Will need to keep an eye CAMs and forecast/observed soundings; an SPS or even a short-fused Winter Weather Advisory may be needed if the forecast trends more pessimistic.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A warmer and wet weather pattern is expected Tuesday through the end of the week as a frontal boundary wavers across the region and a series of disturbances track along the front. PoPs are highest between Tuesday and Thursday with a period of lower PoPs on Friday before a cold front moves across the region at some point during the weekend. The highest rain amounts will likely occur across the southern portion of the area (generally south of U.S. Route 30) where total rainfall between Tuesday and Thursday night could add up to 1.5 to locally 2+ inches. Elsewhere, most locations should receive up to 1 to 1.5 inches of rain in the span of three days. In general, the flooding risk remains relatively low, but can't rule out minor flooding on the more responsive creeks and streams primarily in the southern part of the CWA and in poor drainage/urban areas. There may be sufficient instability for thunderstorms later Wednesday into Thursday and with the cold front over the weekend.

Temperatures will trend warmer throughout the week. Highs in the 40s and lower 50s Tuesday will give way to highs in the 60s and possibly 70s Friday into Saturday. After tonight, low temperatures will likely remain above freezing for several days.

AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/

The main aviation weather concern with this 00z TAF update will be conditions going from VFR to IFR tonight into Tuesday as well as the potential for a few hours of light freezing rain. The overall trend will be ceilings lowering from VFR to IFR later this evening and overnight. Widespread IFR to some pockets of LIFR ceilings will be around for much of Tuesday and through the end of this TAF period. There will also be widespread areas of light fog/mist/drizzle causing visibility reduction of 2sm to 5sm late tonight and Tuesday. Scattered light rain showers will move in late tonight through Tuesday. With the onset of the light rain showers could be some freezing rain before temperatures warm up above freezing. We have this potential mentioned in PROB30 groups for most of the TAFs late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Winds will start out easterly 5 to 10 knots this evening. The winds will become southeasterly to southerly by Tuesday morning 5 to 10 knots then shift more southwesterly by the end for the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely continues into Tuesday night with rain. Occasional periods of rain late Wednesday through Saturday will likely bring additional non-VFR conditions.

MARINE

Primarily light (15kt or less) east to northeast winds are expected through Wednesday evening across the lake. Ice will continue to want to drift west through Wednesday evening. Winds gradually shift more east and then south Wednesday night and Thursday as a warm front lifts towards and across Lake Erie. Winds then shift more south-southwest Friday into the weekend. A period of stronger southwesterly winds (to 20kt or so) is possible Friday or Saturday. The wind shift will cause ice to drift more north-northeasterly late week through the weekend.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.