textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

There are no impactful changes with this morning's forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The nice fall weather pattern will continue through this week with warmer and above average temperatures expected later this week and weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... The current weather pattern over the Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes region is a general west-northwest flow aloft. This pattern will continue to favor a mostly dry forecast with occasional wind shifts or weak cold fronts passing through which will seesaw our temperatures at times later this week. High pressure over the region is bringing fair skies this morning and some cool temperatures, especially away from the lake. Today will be sunny with high temperatures very close to our early October seasonal averages ranging from the lower 60s for NWPA, middle 60s for NEOH, and upper 60s for NWOH. It will not be as cool tonight with areas inland in the mid to upper 40s. High pressure will exit eastward tomorrow and southwest winds will increase 10 to 15 mph with gusts 20 to 25 mph during the afternoon. High temps on Wednesday will get an added boost and reach the lower to upper 70s across the area.

A weak and dry cold front will move across late Wednesday night into Thursday morning which will knock our temps back down slightly. Another area of high pressure and quiet weather will move down across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley for the end of the week. High temperatures Thursday and Friday will range from the mid 60s to low 70s. There will be a shift in our weather pattern with slight upper level ridging developing over the region by the weekend. Temperatures will warm back up Saturday and Sunday into the 70s areawide. There may be a couple locations that try to reach the 80 degree over NWOH this weekend. The next chance of rain may arrive late Sunday into Monday with a remnant tropical system or low pressure system coming from the Gulf Coast region. It may brush by with some rainfall for our area. There is alot of uncertainty at this time with the forecast that far out. In the meantime, enjoy the great weather this week.

AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with some scattered mid-level cumulus likely across NE OH and NW PA through this afternoon. Generally expect light and variable or southerly winds this morning before winds become a bit more southwest and increase by a few knots this afternoon. Winds will most likely be out of the west at KERI during this time. Southerly winds will increase across most of the area overnight with winds of 5 to 10 knots and occasional/scattered gusts to 15 to 20 knots expected.

Outlook...Overall VFR conditions are expected most of this week.

MARINE

Marine weather and conditions will be relatively quiet for today as high pressure tracks across Lake Erie this morning. There is a notable land breeze that has develop overnight and is located mainly over the open waters this early morning. The land breeze may persist through sunrise before it fades away. Winds will become southerly to southwesterly today 5 to 10 knots and waves around a foot. Southwest winds will increase 15 to 25 knots tonight into Wednesday ahead of the next cold front tracking through the Great Lakes. There will likely be the need for an additional Small Craft Advisory tonight into at least early afternoon Wednesday. Winds will shift from the northwest 10 to 15 knots behind the cold front Wednesday night and continue through Thursday evening. Waves will be 1 to 3 feet behind the front. High pressure will build over Lake Erie for the end of the week and into the weekend with westerly to southerly winds 5 to 12 knots Friday and Saturday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.