textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Confidence is slowly increasing for patchy to areas of Frost west of the I-71 corridor tonight. Otherwise, no significant changes to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread rain will exit east of the area this morning. Chilly nights are expected tonight and Thursday night with some Frost possible.

2) Rain chances will return towards the end of the week and into the weekend followed by another chilly airmass early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Post-frontal widespread rain will gradually exit east of the area later this morning, with an additional 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain expected, mainly east of the I-71 corridor. Starting to see some minor river rises, but nothing too significant thus far. A cooler air mass will arrive into the region later today, characterized by 850 mb temperatures falling between 0 to -2C, which will drop overnight lows into the mid to upper 30s. At this time, the highest confidence for Frost to develop tonight will generally be west of the I-71 corridor where cloud cover should diminish more quickly vs further east. Another chance for Frost conditions is possible Thursday night, though a weak low pressure system moving through the area could introduce cloud and/or rain chances and limit the overall potential.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

More widespread rain chances will return Friday night into Saturday as a low pressure system moves east through the Lower great Lakes region. There exists some uncertainty on the axis of heavier rainfall and the overall evolution of the system, though the areas where rain occurs can generally expect total amounts between 0.25 and 0.50 inches. A stronger low pressure system and associated cold front will move east through the region on Sunday, bringing widespread rain and perhaps some embedded thunderstorms across the area. Total rainfall amounts with this system, have the potential to be slightly higher than the Friday system given the more convective elements involved.

Another cool air mass will arrive behind the cold front early next week, with low temperatures falling into the 40s or upper 30s, especially Monday night into early Tuesday morning. The active pattern is favored to continue towards mid-week as a third low pressure system appears to impact the Lower Great Lakes region on Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

The main message for aviation weather will be VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours. VFR ceilings are expected to continue through tomorrow with ceilings mainly above 5000 feet. West-northwest winds will average 5-11 knots this afternoon, backing to more westerly tonight into Thursday 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are expected Friday through Sunday.

MARINE

Overall mainly quiet weather conditions are expected on Lake Erie through this weekend. High pressure is building over the lake today and tonight. Northwest to west-northwest winds of 5 to 15 knots is expecting this afternoon and tonight. Winds will become more westerly 5 to 15 knots on Thursday. West to southwest winds 10 to 15 knots is expected Thursday night into Friday. Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots will continue on Saturday. By Sunday, a cold front will slide across the lake and winds will turn northerly 10 to 15 knots. No marine headlines are expected through this weekend at this time.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.