textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rain no longer expected on Thursday, with PoPs trending higher late Thursday night into Friday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry weather continues with temperatures rising to to upper 70s and low 80s Wednesday and Thursday.

2) Rain showers return Thursday night into Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure will continue to build into the area, becoming centered over the lower Great Lakes region on Tuesday. Dry and seasonable weather is expected to continue.

Southwest flow develops on the backside of the departing high on Wednesday, with above normal temperatures expected on Wednesday and Thursday as highs rise to the upper 70s Wednesday afternoon and around 80 Thursday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A weakening southern-stream disturbance over the Southwest will become increasingly sheared through midweek, with associated moisture spreading northeastward within strengthening southwesterly flow. A northern-stream trough crossing Ontario Thursday into Friday will drive a cold front across the region. The combination of increasing moisture and frontal forcing should result in increasing shower changes Thursday night into Friday.

Model guidance continues to trend towards a slower system with a lower QPF solution. Thursday is now expected to be dry with rain showers with most of the mainstream global NWP starting to bring rain showers into the northern and western parts of the forecast area Thursday night. The AI models, including the ECWMF AIFS and AIGFS have slower solutions and have tended to outperform their physically derived counterparts (GFS/ECMWF), so would expect the forecast to continue trending drier Thursday night with a better chance of rain showers on Friday instead. Overall QPF is likely to be light (most model guidance at or less than 0.5" QPF) and thunderstorms are very unlikely due to the lack of instability expected.

AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/

Fog has again developed near and around the US 30 corridor this morning impacting KMFD and KCAK. KYNG will likely at least see some brief MVFR to IFR vis, but confidence was too low for the TAF. Visibilities will rapidly improve over the next hour or two, but mid-level clouds streaming in from the east from the East Coast storm will lower KERI, KCAK, and KYNG to MVFR cigs later this morning through the afternoon. This has already begun at KERI, and expect it to spread a little farther west. The rest of the terminals will remain VFR through this afternoon, with just scattered to broken clouds of 5,000 to 20,000 feet. All terminals will see improving cigs this evening and tonight as the clouds exit, and confidence is increasing that fog and mist will again impact KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG late tonight. Went IFR at these sites for now, but LIFR fog is certainly possible.

N winds will average 5-10 knots today and tonight.

Outlook...Mainly VFR expected through Wednesday, though periods of early morning patchy fog and lower clouds are possible. Non- VFR possible in scattered showers on Thursday and Friday.

MARINE

As north winds diminish, 2-3 ft waves this morning will improve to nearly calm conditions by late this afternoon. These conditions will continue through at least Tuesday evening as high pressure remains overhead.

Southerly flow around 10 to 15 knots develops Tuesday night as high pressure departs to the east, continuing through Wednesday night. Flow strengthens to 15 to to 20 knots and becomes southwesterly on Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.