textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast. Trailing showers/stratiform rain may inhibit further storm development further west, but there is time for the atmosphere to recover slightly prior to this evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cold front late Sunday into early Sunday night brings the next round of convection.

2) Warm sector returns Tuesday through Thursday after a cool Monday bringing unsettled conditions back into the fold.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A warm front pushing through the area has brought mainly showers but also a few embedded thunderstorm this morning. Trailing showers, stratiform rain driven by PVA aloft continue this afternoon and early evening when activity should overall be on the wane across the CWA. Potential fog into the overnight hours developing late where it rained today but could be inhibited by lingering clouds in the eastern CWA, so this could end up being more of western CWA issue. Brief warm sector residence time into Sunday when a cold front enters from the northwest. Low/mid level frontogenesis should be on the increase as the front is tracking through, and see these increases in the southeastern zones of the CWA. That is when a line of convection with the front is expected to form, likely just south and east of the lakeshore areas east of Cleveland associated with a small pocket of a low level jet maximum and increasing instability from dewpoints near 70F at the surface and a 3-5C surge at 850mb coinciding with the aforementioned low level jet. Sufficient 0-6km shear should organize storms into a line ahead of the cold front. There is a potential for severe as a result, but ultimately, these should exit the CWA fairly quickly with forward motion to the southeast.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Very cool day Monday in a much cooler airmass behind the late Sunday cold front, with 70F tough to come by for the eastern half of the CWA. This will be short-lived, however, with Canadian high pressure that was over the area Monday shifting quickly eastward and back into return flow and quickly warming temperatures again through midweek. Warm front likely to set up along the fetch of Lake Erie or near it into the same time frame, bringing unsettled weather back with dewpoints up from the lower 50s to possibly the lower 70s and air temperatures into the mid 80s. Expecting unsettled weather as a result with off and on convection from Tuesday night through at least Thursday for the area.

AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/

As showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to move northeast this afternoon, a widespread mix of conditions are being observed across the area. This will likely remain the case through the evening hours with the greatest chance of non-VFR conditions along and east of I71. Although the thunder potential is minimal given the fairly stable atmosphere, there remains a slight chance that KCAK and KYNG will hear a few fumbles so opted to maintain VCTS for those sites. Around 00Z Sunday, showers will gradually depart to the east, but conditions will once again deteriorate as fog impacts the entire area tonight. Highest confidence for IFR conditions are for those terminals that are not adjacent to Lake Erie where visibilities may drop to 2SM or less at times. Near the lakeshore confidence is lower, however some models do suggest that high end IFR ceilings may creep across those terminals as well. Foggy conditions will begin to lift mid to late morning on Sunday before another round of convection is possible Sunday afternoon.

Winds 10 knots or less will persist through the TAF period, beginning this afternoon from the southwest before becoming west-northwest near the end of this period.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers/storms Sunday afternoon and evening. Non-VFR again possible in scattered showers/storms Tuesday into Wednesday.

MARINE

Offshore winds tonight become west southwesterly 10kts Sunday ahead of a late Sunday cold frontal passage. High pressure behind the cold front turns winds northerly 15-25kts and wave heights quickly building to 3-6ft Sunday night through Monday where a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed. With high pressure quickly moving eastwards, winds return to offshore flow 15-20kts into midweek and wave heights nearshore less than 2ft.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.