textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

QPF for tonight into Monday has trended a bit lower with this update, but otherwise the forecast is on track and no significant changes were needed.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread rain is expected and thunderstorms are possible tonight into Monday. Rain may be moderate at times.

2) Dry weather with below normal temperatures are expected through early to mid week with temperatures warming and rain chances returning late week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Low pressure will move east across the Ohio Valley and far southern reaches of the forecast area late tonight into Monday. Showers will attempt to overspread the region late this afternoon into this evening, although it will likely remain virga for several hours due to dry lower levels. Precipitation will likely become a bit more scattered with periodic dry periods near or shortly after 12Z/8 AM Monday morning, although some CAMs (including the 12Z HRRR) have dry air working into the region earlier than that. Rain could be moderate at times, however QPF has trended down further. Around an inch of rain is possible across portions of northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania with locally higher amounts possible, although locations south of U.S. Route 30 may only see up to 0.75 inches of rain at most. Some nuisance ponding cannot be ruled out in low-lying and poor drainage areas that get over an inch of rain, but the flooding risk is relatively low at this point.

Elevated thunderstorms remain possible tonight into early Monday, although severe weather is not anticipated. Showers and isolated thunderstorms may perk up a bit during peak diurnal heating east of I-71, although instability will likely largely be to the southeast of the local area.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Below normal temperatures are expected Monday and in more zonal flow Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s Monday before rising into the mid to upper 70s by Wednesday. Temps moderate late week into the weekend with highs likely returning to the mid 80s in many spots by Sunday. Dry weather will return to the region Monday night through Wednesday with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances returning as a series of disturbances move across the region Wednesday night through the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/

Rain over Indiana and Illinois will continue to spread east tonight with a low pressure system moving through the Ohio Valley. The active portion of the system with thunderstorms and heavy rainfall will remain south of the terminals tonight. However, an area of stratiform rain has developed north of the low and continues to expand in a deformation zone in northern Illinois and Indiana. This rain will spread into the airspace tonight, bringing MVFR and eventually IFR conditions to the terminals. With the low pressure system, a dry slot is developing and will encroach into the airspace late tonight into Monday and may allow for a reprieve of the most pessimistic conditions, especially for KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG. Rain will exit by the end of the TAF period for most with ceilings improving to MVFR. Winds through the period will start generally easterly and shift around to the north with the low pressure system passage.

Outlook...Non-VFR continues into Monday night with low ceilings. Non-VFR possible again in rain showers Wednesday night through Thursday night.

MARINE

Low pressure will track out of the Mississippi Valley tonight and across northern Ohio on Monday, departing to the east Monday evening and night. This low pressure is not extremely strong, but the track will be favorable for elevated east to north winds across Lake Erie. Winds will quickly shift east this evening and increase to 15-25kt across the western and central basins overnight tonight, peak at 20-25kt across much of the lake Monday morning and afternoon while gradually shifting more northeast, then decrease from west to east late Monday into Monday night while shifting northerly. Waves will peak at 4 to 7 feet across the central basin on Monday. Have made some minor adjustments to the timing of the Small Craft Advisory and Beach Hazards Statement, and expanded the headlines to include Ashtabula County and Erie County PA. Generally tranquil marine conditions are on tap Tuesday and Wednesday with high pressure.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Beach Hazards Statement from 4 AM EDT Monday through Monday afternoon for OHZ003-007. Beach Hazards Statement from 4 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening for OHZ009>011. Beach Hazards Statement from Monday morning through Monday evening for OHZ012-089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement from Monday morning through Monday evening for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Monday for LEZ142- 143. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EDT Monday for LEZ144>146. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 10 PM EDT Monday for LEZ147>149.