textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather pattern this week will result in multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms.

2) Above average temperatures return today and persist through the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Surface low pressure pushing across the Upper Midwest today will lift a warm front northeast through the local forecast area today. Simultaneously, a shortwave aloft will glide east across Lower Michigan and the Lower Great Lakes region. The majority of the forecast area should remain dry today, but can't rule out a stray shower clipping lakeshore zones given the location of the support aloft. Any QPF from the showers will be minimal.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase by Monday as the aforementioned low drags a cold front east across the region. Ahead of the cold front, the region will solidly be in the warm sector which will yield MUCAPE values of 400-700 J/kg. Can't rule out the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop, though SPC continues to highlight our forecast area in a General Thunder (i.e. no severe threat) for Monday. Will continue to monitor any future updates or adjustments to the SWODY for that timeframe. In addition to shower/thunderstorm chances, it will be breezy today and Monday. Southerly to southwesterly surface winds of 15-20 mph are forecast to gust to 30-35 mph each afternoon.

A series of low pressure systems and surface boundaries will linger across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions through the rest of this week. This will keep chance PoPs in the forecast for the foreseeable future. Heavy rainfall and the potential for strong to severe storms both remain possible with this forecast update. The timeframe of note will be midweek where the best synoptic support and afternoon destabilization exist. WPC has highlighted portions of Northwest Ohio in their Days 4 and 5 Excessive Rainfall outlook. Given the progressive nature of these systems, not expecting any major flooding concerns at this point, even with the antecedent wet conditions from recent rainfall.

KEY MESSAGE 2... As the warm front lifts northeast, high temperatures this afternoon will rise into the 70s areawide. High temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s will continue through this week. Overnight lows will also remain warm in the upper 50s to lower 60s each night.

AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/

VFR conditions in scattered to high clouds are expected through the TAF period. There's a low-end chance of a stray shower at KERI late this morning or this afternoon, but there will probably be too much dry air at the surface for appreciable rainfall and impacts to flight conditions. Mid-level (but still VFR) clouds will begin to move in from the west in the last hour or two of the TAF period. Winds will be out of the southeast at 10 knots or less through the overnight hours before becoming south/southwest and increasing to 10 to 20 knots near or shortly after 15Z. Gusts to 20 to 30 knots are likely with the highest gusts closer to 30 knots expected at KTOL/KFDY. A low level jet will move over the region after 00Z tonight and expect a period of LLWS and likely a period of lower surface gusts at all terminals through early Monday morning.

Outlook...Occasional non-VFR conditions are expected in periodic showers and thunderstorms Monday morning through Thursday.

MARINE

High pressure over the region will shift east tonight allowing winds to develop out of the east/southeast tonight, then out of the south on Sunday. Winds increase to 15-25 knots Sunday night as a low level jet moves overhead and may be near Small Craft Advisory conditions at times into Monday. Winds tend to remain generally out of the southwest through mid-week at 10-20 knots but could be impacted by thunderstorms as a frontal boundary sets up just north of Lake Erie.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.