textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Conditions remain dry across the area with no changes needed with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry conditions with a warming trend expected through the week.

2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure builds southeast across the Great Lakes region through Wednesday before departing to the southeast CONUS Thursday and Friday. Highs in the 70s warm to the 80s by Thursday and Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Warm, moist air will build over the weekend over the weekend on account of southwest flow behind the departing high pressure, resulting in a more humid airmass favorable for thunderstorms development. Showers and storms are most likely ahead of a southeastward moving upper-level trough and cold front pair on Saturday and Sunday, with isolated showers and storms possible lingering into Monday. Relatively weak flow aloft will keep the severe weather threat low (although there are a few outlier models that have better flow aloft, so perhaps still a bit of uncertainty in that regard). However, high humidity is forecast, with PWAT values likely to exceed 90th percentile, so heavy downpours are likely with developed convection. Weak flow parallel to the cold front could also slightly favor a low-end localized flooding risk.

AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/

VFR across the TAF sites this morning with VFR to persist through the TAF period. North to northeast winds will increase later this morning and afternoon, 10 to 15 knots, with periodic gusts of 20 to perhaps 25 knots possible, especially at CLE/FDY. Winds will diminish to less than 5 knots after sunset.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday.

MARINE

Mainly quiet marine conditions are expected through the week and into the weekend as high pressure persists across the region. Could see a brief period of 2 to 3-foot waves this morning and early afternoon with slightly higher northeast flow around 15 knots. Waves should gradually subside by mid to late afternoon as winds decrease to 10 knots or less. Otherwise, overall flow will generally remain light through much of the week, before shifting to the southwest late Friday through Saturday, 10 to 15 knots.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.