textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Freeze Watch has been issued for most of the forecast area for late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain and gusty winds continue into Saturday in the wake of a cold front.

2) Dry conditions with colder air behind the front as high pressure builds into the region. A Freeze Watch has been issued Saturday night into Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Areawide rain showers and gusty winds 25-30 MPH continue through this afternoon and evening as a surface trough remains draped across the region. As the trough continues to sink south across Northern Ohio, rain showers will transition into lake effect rain downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Huron tonight into early Saturday morning. Given the Lake Huron connection, the primary area of lake effect rain showers will remain situated between the I-71 and I-77 corridors. Any remaining gusty winds will gradually diminish through the overnight hours as high pressure gradually builds into the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Aforementioned high pressure will build into the area from the west this weekend leading to a period of dry but cold conditions. Effective radiative cooling under the high on Saturday night will lead to widespread low temperatures in the low to mid 30s and possibly the upper 20s in some locations. A Freeze Watch has been issued for nearly all zones in the forecast area with the exception of Lake County and the lakeshore zones of Ashtabula and Erie County PA where lows may be a bit warmer given the proximity to the relatively warmer waters of Lake Erie. Temperatures will begin to moderate into early next week as high pressure builds to the east of the region.

AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/

Areawide rain showers is expected to continue through the rest of the day today, before the broader rain shield exits to the east by this evening. Rain will mainly consist of 4-6+ SM but some heavier showers could briefly produce visibility down to 1-2SM at times. Mainly MVFR ceilings are expected, though patchy IFR ceilings are possible.

By late this evening into early tonight, lake effect rain showers are expected across portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. There will be one or two primary bands near KCLE/KMFD and then into Northwest Pennsylvania.

High pressure builds in late tonight into Saturday, with skies becoming mostly sunny through the day.

Northwest winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots become north this evening, and then gradually diminish through the day Saturday.

Outlook...Mainly VFR expected.

MARINE

Rough marine conditions continue under the surface trough as west to northwest winds remain between 25-30 knots and wave heights up to 6-9 feet. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect across the entire lake Saturday late morning and early afternoon. North winds will gradually diminish to 10-15 knots Saturday night into Sunday with wave heights subsiding to 3 feet or less under high pressure. Light winds of 10 knots or less are expected Sunday into the middle of next week as high pressure remains in control.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for OHZ003-006>011-013-014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047. PA...Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for PAZ002-003. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142-143- 149. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Saturday for LEZ144>148.