textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of Northeast Ohio into this evening, though additional rainfall amounts in the Watch area will be limited.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periodic showers and thunderstorms will continue through Monday night, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Heavy rain and isolated flash flooding is possible.

2) The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be towards the end of the week as a cold front enters the region.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Periodic showers and thunderstorms will continue across the region through Monday night, particularly in the afternoon and evening, as weak low pressure slowly drifts east across the Ohio Valley.

For the rest of today, the storm complex that impacted much of Northeast Ohio earlier today has exited southeast of the area. In terms of the Flood Watch, not expecting much additional rainfall into this evening, though will keep it in effect for now given continued impacts, particularly in the Trumbull/Mahoning areas. Anticipate we will be able to cancel the Flood Watch a little earlier than the current 10 PM expiration time. Otherwise, will need to monitor potential development of isolated to scattered showers and storms along a weak boundary, roughly draped NW to SE from Toledo to Canton. Not anticipating showers and storms to be as organized as the cluster that impacted Northeast Ohio earlier today, but heavy rain is possible regardless.

Attention then turns towards Monday as another round of showers and storms are expected to develop in the afternoon and evening hours, potentially impacting a similar area as today. Once again, heavy rain will be the main threat with these showers and storms given anomalously-high PWATs, weak flow, and skinny CAPE profiles.

KEY MESSAGE 2... After brief high pressure builds across the region on Wednesday, attention then turns towards the next low pressure system and cold front Thursday into Friday. Confidence continues to increase for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop Thursday afternoon into Friday. Can't rule out some stronger storms, supported by modest westerly flow aloft of around 25 knots and will continue to monitor the threat. Depending on the southern progression of the cold front, could see additional showers and thunderstorms develop Friday afternoon and evening across the southern portion of our area.

AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/

Showers and storms continue across NE OH and NW PA this afternoon and will continue east into PA over the next few hours. Conditions with any storms will be IFR, mainly around KCAK and KYNG. There is low confidence in the forecast for this evening as there will be a recovery period behind this initial line of convection but models suggest that new iso/sct convection will develop again with less coverage than earlier today. A boundary will continue to exist near Lake Erie with a shortwave trough aloft that will allow for new rain to develop overnight into Monday. This boundary will sag south across the area and bring another round of rain to all of the terminals. Conditions overnight will remain saturated and low ceilings and fog will develop with or without rain. Low ceilings will then persist with the boundary sagging south on Monday. Winds will be east to northeast for most of the area through the period. With new development in storms this afternoon and evening in NW Ohio, winds may actually be westerly for a time before coming around to the north/northeast.

Outlook...Non-VFR with occasional showers and thunderstorms possible through Tuesday afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are also possible Thursday afternoon.

MARINE

Northeast flow will persist on the lake tonight into Monday with a low pressure system moving south of the lake. Northeast flow will increase to around 15-20 kts on Monday afternoon and may allow for some brief 4 ft waves for the central basin, which would prompt a Small Craft Advisory. A residual trough will remain over the Ohio Valley on Tuesday into Wednesday and allow for lighter northeast flow on the lake. Weak high pressure will build into the area for Thursday and flip flow to the southwest. A cold front will move through the region on Friday and shift winds back to the northwest for Friday. Outside of Monday afternoon and evening, marine headlines are not expected.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for OHZ010>013- 020>023-031>033. PA...None. MARINE...None.