textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes made with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry conditions continue today before a series of disturbances marks the return of showers and thunderstorms chances Wednesday afternoon through at the early part of the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry weather will continue through Wednesday morning as high pressure maintains influence over the region. The high will drift east on Wednesday, resulting in the return of chances of scattered diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms, primarily east of I-71. On Thursday, an upper trough and slow-moving frontal boundary will move east towards the area. While there's potential that most of the area could be between more widespread shower/thunderstorms to the east and west, scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible across the entire area with the highest PoPs across NW OH and the far eastern fringe of the local area. Locally heavy rainfall will be the main concern with thunderstorms Thursday given dew points well into the 60s and PWAT values of 1.5 to possibly even 2 inches. The severe weather risk is low given the lack of forcing/shear.

Confidence in widespread showers/storms is highest on Friday as the frontal boundary moves east into the area with scattered showers and storms possible into the weekend as the front slowly moves east across the region. Organized thunderstorms (some possibly strong) can't be ruled out since shear will be higher, but will need to see how much we destabilize before peak diurnal instability. It's possible that early day showers and storms limit the severe weather threat. Will need to monitor Friday for heavy rainfall due to mean flow parallel to the frontal boundary and continued moisture across the region.

A break in showers/storms is possible at some point over the weekend, but it looks like the unsettled weather pattern will continue late weekend into early next week as zonal flow develops over the region and disturbances ride east across the area.

AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/

VFR conditions will continue for this TAF update through Wednesday morning. Skies will be mostly clear. Winds will be light and variable 5 knots or less. There will be a light lake breeze at CLE and ERI this afternoon. Winds will gradually become southeasterly by Wednesday morning around 5 knots.

Outlook...Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms with non- VFR conditions possible across northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania Wednesday afternoon and evening. Showers, and occasional storms, will become more widespread across the region Thursday, and continue into the weekend.

MARINE

Overall winds on Lake Erie will be light with speeds 12 knots or less through the rest of this week. Waves will be generally 1 to 2 feet for the rest of the week. Daily afternoon lake breezes can be expected through the end of the week. Scattered thunderstorm chances will return Thursday into the weekend and could result in localized erratic winds and wave conditions. No headlines are expected for Lake Erie through the end of the week.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.