textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A broken line of showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of a cold front this evening and redevelop again Thursday afternoon. A few strong to severe storms may be possible across Northwest Ohio this evening.

2) A much warmer weather pattern will develop this weekend into early next week with temperatures rising into the 80s to around 90 degrees.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure centered near the Mid-Atlantic region this morning is still in control our our weather. Today will be a rather decent day for most of the area. Skies will start out mostly sunny to partly cloudy but clouds will increase late in the day ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s this afternoon.

A weak cold front approaching from the west will move into Northwest Ohio this evening. A broken line of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along that cold front with a few strong to severe storms possible, mainly for NWOH between 6 pm and 11 pm. For the thermodynamics ahead the front, effective shear values will between 30-40 knots, MLCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg, and downdraft CAPE up to 1000 J/kg. The latest high-res model guidance in good agreement with the potential of a few strong to severe storms with damaging winds up to 60 mph as the main threat followed a less threat of large hail up to the size of Quarters. The latest SPC severe weather outlook today has Lucas, Wood, Ottawa, and Hancock Counties in a slight risk (level 2 of 5). There is a marginal severe storm risk (level 1 of 5) from Wyandot County Ohio northeast to the Lake Erie Islands this evening. As the convection tracks eastward late this evening, it will move into a stable atmosphere and quickly dissipate before it reaches the I-71 corridor.

This slow moving front will be over NEOH and NWPA Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop east of I-71 midday through the early afternoon before it moves out of the area. Severe weather is not expected with any of the storms on Thursday. A surface trough will southward across Lake Erie Thursday evening through early Friday morning with a few rain showers possible near the lakeshore.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A stretch of much warmer and nice weather will start Friday as High pressure will builds southeastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The overall weather pattern will transition from an upper level to upper level ridging this weekend. Eventually an upper level ridge of high pressure will develop and stay over the Ohio Valley this weekend into early next week. This weather pattern will favor above average temperature in the 80s to around 90 degrees. Overnight low temps will be in the 60s to around 70 degrees. By the next Monday night and Tuesday, a weak frontal boundary will try to drift southward into our area and a return of chance POPs.

AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

Any patchy fog/mist will quickly mix out this morning. Otherwise, VFR (just FEW-SCT afternoon cumulus around 050) until storms move in from the west this evening, reaching TOL as early as 22z. Confidence in TS impacts is fairly high at both TOL/FDY, where prevailing VCTS with TEMPOs are in the TAFs. Some storms in Northwest OH may be strong to severe with wind gusts of 40-50kt. Activity should weaken quickly as it spreads east and impacts quickly become more uncertain. Have a window of VCSH with PROB30 for TSRA at CLE and MFD. Have just a VCSH mention later tonight at CAK/YNG/ERI, as it's possible a few showers maintain through the night though confidence in any thunder lingering is quite low. Winds shift south-southwest and increase to 7-12kt with a few gusts up to 20kt into this afternoon. Winds remain south-southwest tonight. Outlook...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible across Northeast OH/Northwest PA Thursday afternoon. Non-VFR possible in low ceilings and a few showers moving off of Lake Erie Thursday night into early Friday.

MARINE

South-southwest winds will persist over the lake ahead of a cold front that will cross on Thursday, shifting winds more westerly. Winds will generally be 10-15kt through much of Thursday, perhaps briefly stronger late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the cold front crosses. These winds will build 1 to 3 foot waves (largest in the open waters), perhaps briefly closer to 4 feet in the open waters of the central and eastern basin early Thursday. 1 to 3 foot waves will be pushed towards the shoreline northeast of Cleveland on Thursday as winds turn more westerly, though winds will quickly subside Thursday afternoon which should keep waves below small craft criteria. A period of slightly elevated winds in the 10-15kt range out of the north- northeast is expected Thursday night into early Friday, which will likely create another period of choppy conditions with 1 to 3 footers in the nearshore waters. Favorable marine conditions are expected Friday afternoon into the weekend with high pressure sliding through the region.

Thunderstorms will likely move over at least western Lake Erie this evening before weakening, with lower confidence in thunderstorms across the eastern half of the lake tonight. Thunderstorms may re-develop along the cold front over eastern Lake Erie late Thursday morning or early afternoon before pushing inland. Any storms can lead to briefly higher/erratic winds and waves. A few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm may occur Thursday night into early Friday morning as a trough crosses the lake, with a low risk for waterspouts.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.