textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry, but cooler today.

2) Above normal temperatures Sunday through late next week. Unsettled with daily shower and thunderstorm chances Monday onward.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Canadian high pressure builds across the Lower Great Lakes today ushering in dry but cooler weather. Northerly flow across the lake will allow for some lake effect cloud cover this morning before it clears out this afternoon. High temperatures along the lakeshore will struggle to reach 50 degrees with highs south of the lake in the mid to upper 50s. Chilly again tonight with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Slightly cooler across Northwest Pennsylvania with lows in the low to mid 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Surface high will exit to the east Saturday night into Sunday allowing for warm and moist air to advect into the region. This will begin a period of warm but unsettled weather with nearly daily chances for showers and thunderstorms as a series of shortwaves move overhead.

Sunday should largely remain dry, but some light rain showers may clip lakeshore zones as a shortwave moves northeast across the Lower Great Lakes. Another shortwave will move east across the region on Monday bringing increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Additional shortwaves will keep at least slight chance to chance PoPs in the forecast through the end of the week. The one timeframe to keep an eye on will be Tuesday night into Wednesday where more organized convection may develop. SPC has clipped Northwest Ohio in their Severe Weather Outlook during this timeframe.

In terms of temperatures, daily afternoon highs will range between the mid 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows in the 60s each night which may near or break record warm overnight low temperatures for a few observation sites in the region, particularly Monday night through Wednesday night.

AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/

High pressure is located over the Central Great Lakes this afternoon which has aided in morning clouds scattering out for the afternoon. MFD or FDY could see brief bkn clouds near 3K feet through 19Z, otherwise expecting VFR conditions for the remainder of the TAF period. Winds are 10 knots or less out of the north or northeast but will veer south or southwest through Sunday morning. Western terminals will start to see winds gusting to 20-25 knots after 16Z Sun. Some increase in mid level moisture in the 6-10K feet range is forecast to accompany a warm front lifting northeast between 11-20Z. While a few light showers can not be ruled out across the north, the chance of a shower impacting a terminals remains low and therefore did not include in any terminals at this time.

Outlook...Occasional non-VFR conditions are expected in periodic showers and thunderstorms Monday through Thursday.

MARINE

High pressure over the region will shift east tonight allowing winds to develop out of the east/southeast tonight, then out of the south on Sunday. Winds increase to 15-25 knots Sunday night as a low level jet moves overhead and may be near Small Craft Advisory conditions at times into Monday. Winds tend to remain generally out of the southwest through mid-week at 10-20 knots but could be impacted by thunderstorms as a frontal boundary sets up just north of Lake Erie.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.