textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Precipitation chances have increased to around 30-60% for much of the area for a brief period of rain showers Thursday evening into Thursday night. Precipitation chances on Sunday have trended more towards Sunday night. The forecast for Monday has trended drier.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures and dry weather, aside from isolated rain showers Thursday night, will continue through Sunday.

2) Rain chances return Sunday night through midweek.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure remains over the east coast through Thursday. Southerly flow on the backside of the departing high will bring well above normal temperatures (highs in the 70s, lows in 40s/50s), potentially challenging record high temperatures on Thursday (see climate section below).

A low pressure system located well to the north near the Georgian Bay will bring a cold front across the area Thursday night. While moisture and lift is still lacking overall, precipitation have increased to around 30-60%. Some hi-res model guidance indicate a decent chance at a brief, moderate rainfall with some of the heavier rain showers, mainly near Lake Erie where there could be slightly high low-lelel moisture/convergence.

High pressure builds back in Friday through Sunday, ushering "cooler" but still above normal temperatures with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s/50s. Some of the typically cooler spots of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania could get down into the mid 30s Friday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2... As high pressure departs to the east, broad isentropic lift brings rain chances back Sunday night into early Monday. Latest model guidance has trended toward lower PoPs and a drier day Monday and even into Monday night as precip is mainly tied to a warm front that lifts northeastward across the area Sunday night. Any rain that does occur will be light and likely less than 0.1".

A low pressure system and upper-level low approach the area from the west, with rain chances on the rise midweek. This system has a better chance to bring appreciable rainfall.

Temperatures will likely remain above normal into next week with highs in the upper 60s and lows in the 40s/50s.

AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/

VFR across the TAF sites this afternoon with VFR to persist through the TAF period. Only minor tweak in this update was to include vcsh at CLE towards the end of the TAF period as rain chances increase ahead of a cold front.

Outside of a weak lake breeze impacting ERI/CLE this afternoon, winds will generally favor a west to southwest direction, around 5 knots. Winds will then increase out of the south to southwest Thursday morning and afternoon, 10 to 12 knots with periodic gusts up to 20 knots possible.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with rain showers along a cold front Thursday evening and overnight.

MARINE

Light and variable winds become 10 to 15 knots out of the southwest 10-15 knots tonight into Thursday before shifting northwesterly to northerly behind a cold front Thursday evening. Choppy conditions with waves 2-4 feet in the central basin remain possible behind the frontal passage. High pressure returns Friday and Saturday allowing for northerly to northeasterly winds to remain 10 knots or less. South winds less than 10 knots develop Sunday into Monday.

CLIMATE

We are forecast to be within a few degrees of record warmth on Thursday. Here are the record high temperatures for our six climate sites on October 29th:

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 10-29 79(2024) 79(1922) 78(2024) 77(1900) 77(2024) 77(2024)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.