textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warming trend Tuesday and Wednesday.

2) Showers expected ahead of and with a cold front Wednesday into Wednesday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Expansive high pressure will drift off the mid Atlantic coastal region providing the southern Great Lakes with deep southerly flow in the next couple of days. With 850mb temperatures climbing into the lower teens with warm air advection, expecting high temperatures 10-20 degrees above normal for Tuesday and Wednesday, possibly pushing record highs in places Tuesday. Wednesday should lag a bit with the potential introduction of showers into the region ahead of the cold front marching in from the west.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Deep upper low will push from the southern high plains towards the upper Mississippi Valley, driving a Pacific cold front west to east into the CWA. Line of showers moves into the western zones after 15Z Wednesday. Looking at the low level f-gen for this system, it appears the system may turn weakly frontolytic as it moves through the CWA Wednesday, with the line possibly becoming more scattered as it does so. This would correlate with the occluding nature of the surface and upper level low pressure systems, but still expect precipitation for all zones of the CWA and will need to watch for the development of surface waves along the cold front. Temperatures back down towards normal for the end of the week and into the weekend with continued upper level troughing over the CWA and off and on rain chances during this time as well.

AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/

Overall VFR to MVFR ceilings are expected for this TAF period. There is one exception at MFD this evening for IFR ceilings trough 03z before improving to MVFR overnight. Most of north central and northwest Ohio will have MVFR ceilings overnight improving to VFR ceilings by early Tuesday morning. TAF sites across NEOH and NWPA are seeing VFR ceilings. VFR ceilings are expected for all TAF sites midday Tuesday through the end of the time period. Winds will be southerly 5 to 10 knots overnight. Southerly winds will increase 10 to 14 knots on Tuesday with gusts up to 22 knots during the afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain Wednesday into Thursday.

MARINE

Offshore winds 10-20kts through early Wednesday ahead of a cold front will mean wave heights increase progressively away from shore. In general, 2ft or less for the nearshore zones, and 2-4ft in the open water zones should be expected during this time. A cold front late Wednesday/Wednesday night turns winds more southwesterly 10- 20kts through Thursday, with wave heights in the nearshore zones east of Cleveland now in the 1-3ft range while wave height forecast s for the other zones remains the same.

CLIMATE

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 11-03 77(1987) 76(2015) 79(1961) 80(1961) 80(1961) 80(1961) 11-04 80(2003) 77(2015) 79(2003) 76(2015) 77(2003) 78(2015)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.