textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A line of broken showers has developed across the eastern portion of the area. This convection should remain sub-severe into the evening before departing east.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front will keep scattered showers across the eastern part of the area through this evening.

2) Above average temperatures return next week with highs once again expected to climb into the upper 80s to low 90s.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front extending roughly from Erie, PA southwest to Marion, OH has become the focus for light rain showers developing this afternoon. A few rumbles of thunder may develop this afternoon as additional daytime heating increases instability, however given the overall weak environment across the area, not expecting any of these to turn severe. Behind the aforementioned boundary, an expansive diurnal cu field has developed, but given limited moisture not expecting any showers. Conditions should dry out by tonight with the exception for portions of the snowbelt that may get isolated lake enhanced showers into Friday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure is expected to begin to build east into the area on Friday, becoming the dominant weather pattern by Saturday. This high will persist into early next week and should allow for a prolonged period of dry conditions across northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. In addition, this high will be responsible for temperatures once again climbing to above average by late this weekend into early next week. Highs are expected to once again climb into the upper 80s to low 90s with max heat indices in the mid 90s. Overnight lows will remain warm with temperatures only dropping into the upper 60s to low 70s. A mid week system may impact the area, ultimately allowing for temperatures to return to near normal by mid to late week, but given model variations the confidence in the timing of this is fairly low.

AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/

At 18Z a very narrow band of showers extended from near MNN to just north of CAK to near YNG and continued into Northwest Pennsylvania. A brief shower is possible at CAK or YNG, mainly through 20Z before pushing south. Can not rule out an isolated thunderstorm but probabilities of occurrence are too low to include at any terminal. Main concern is a brief drop to MVFR visibilities in heavier showers. Otherwise, ceilings will be primarily VFR this afternoon. Skies will clear out tonight and can not rule out a window of MVFR visibilities in patchy ground fog at inland terminals. Locations closer to Lake Erie can expect sct-bkn MVFR clouds to move in off Lake Erie after 06Z. This will provide the moisture for scattered cumulus clouds to return on Friday. Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 knots or less, becoming northeasterly overnight. Outlook...Mainly VFR, but with patchy non-VFR possible in fog/mist early in the mornings on Saturday and Sunday.

MARINE

West northwest flow of 5-15 knots on Lake Erie will decrease this evening then veer to northeasterly overnight at 5-15 knots. Conditions will be somewhat choppy Friday morning with waves of 1 to 3 feet and onshore flow. Winds drop off quickly though as high pressure builds overhead and no advisories are expected. There will be a low end threat of waterspouts overnight as this trough crosses Lake Erie.

Good marine conditions are forecast for this weekend with winds of generally 10 knots or less. A warm front lifts north on Sunday night and southwesterly winds increase into the 5-15 knots at times for Monday and Tuesday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.