textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

There are no changes in the forecast through the end of the week. There is increasing forecast confidence that the remnant tropical system impacting the northern Gulf Coast region late this week will move through the Ohio Valley this weekend into early next week with widespread rainfall possible.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry conditions with seasonable to above average temperatures expected to continue through Saturday.

2) The forecast is now increasingly looking wetter over the weekend with the remnants of a tropical system from the Gulf Region moving through the Ohio Valley.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... We have fair weather with mostly clear skies this morning thanks to high pressure still incontrol nearby. The high pressure system will slowly move eastwards today and a cold front will approach the area from the northwest this evening. Ahead of the cold front, southwesterly flow will increase today 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph during the midday and afternoon hours. Blue skies and lots of sunshine today will favor warmer high temps this afternoon, climbing into the lower 70s for NWPA and NEOH. Mid to upper 70s are expected this afternoon across north central and Northwest Ohio. A mainly dry cold front will move through later this evening. There could be a couple spotty rain showers along the frontal passage over far NEOH and NWPA this evening, but most areas will not see any rainfall. A slightly cooler and breezy northwest flow will follow behind the front late tonight and Thursday. Another high pressure system will build in over the Ohio Valley for Thursday and Friday with high temps closer to seasonable averages for early October, middle 60s to a few low 70s. Relatively quiet and dry weather will continue through most of Saturday before some changes arrive later in the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2... The tropical system that is currently developing in the Gulf of America and will impact the northern Gulf Coast region later this week may track across the Ohio Valley later this weekend, bringing the potential for widespread rainfall. Forecast guidance and confidence is now increasing for the remnant low pressure system will track across the Ohio Valley Saturday night through Monday with widespread showers and isolated thunder. Ahead of the system on Saturday, high temperatures may climb back upwards in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees thanks to some subsidence around the approaching remnant tropical system. It will continue to stay warm and somewhat humid Sunday and Monday with the influx of tropical moisture over the region. Despite rain chances likely Sunday and Monday, high temps will still reach the upper 60s to low 70s. It appears that a cold front will arrive and move through late Monday with additional rain chances and cooler weather by next Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

VFR is expected through the TAF period with some high clouds accompanying a weak cold front this afternoon. Winds will be out of the south at around 10 knots for the first few hours of the TAF period before shifting to the southwest and increasing to 8 to 14 knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots after daybreak and through this afternoon. Winds will diminish to around 10 knots this evening with flow becoming more westerly towards the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR is possible with rain showers on Sunday.

MARINE

The winds have already started to increase from the south and southwest over Lake Erie this morning. Bouys are showing winds already 15 to 20 knots with the offshore flow as of 3 am. The Small Craft Advisory will go into effect shortly and continues through late afternoon for the central nearshore and late evening for the eastern nearshore zones. That end times for the SCA may need some adjustments or extensions if the elevated winds linger longer than anticipated. A cold front will move across the lake this evening with winds shifting from the northwest overnight around 15 knots and waves 2 to 4 feet. Marginal SCA conditions may continue late tonight into Thursday with the northwest flow and waves up to 4 feet possible. That will be something for us to monitored with futures marine forecast updates. High pressure will build back over Lake Erie Thursday through Friday night. A onshore flow of 8 to 15 knots will linger through Friday afternoon with a gradually shift from the south by Friday night. The offshore southerly flow 10 to 15 knots is expected on Saturday. There is some forecast uncertainty on the wind flow and direction Saturday night through Sunday because of the potential for a remnant tropical low that will track across Ohio Valley late this weekend. Winds may be shifting around depending of that low track.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ144>146. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ147>149.