textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Precipitation forecast is trending drier Sunday into Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures and dry weather, aside from scattered rain showers tonight, will continue into Sunday.

2) Better chance for rainfall will come early to mid-week next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Surface ridge of high pressure extending from the New England coast will exit the region today as a cold front approaches from the Upper Great Lakes region. Ahead of the cold front, southerly flow will warm high temperatures into the mid to upper 70s, roughly 10-15 degrees above normal for late October. A few sites have the potential to approach or reach record warm high temperatures for today. The cold front will arrive in Northwest Ohio this afternoon and gradually slide southeast across the forecast area through late tonight. Scattered showers will be possible along the front with precipitation chances remaining between 40-50% with locally higher chances (50-70%) across portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania where better upper level support is present. Cannot rule out a rumble of thunder across Northwest Ohio late afternoon/early evening as MLCAPE values of 200-400 J/kg are forecast.

Dry weather returns Friday and Saturday as another area of high pressure builds across the region. Slightly cooler, albeit still above normal, with highs in the 60s Friday and Saturday behind the cold front. Chilly overnight lows Friday night in the 40s for most and the low to mid 30s in the higher terrain of Northwest Pennsylvania.

KEY MESSAGE 2... There remains some discrepancy between medium/long range models regarding rain chances Sunday night into Monday. Overall, the forecast is trending drier for that time frame as the aforementioned surface high centered over the region may inhibit rainfall. The high pushes to the east early next week as a broad upper trough digs into the central and eastern CONUS. Models seem to be in a bit better agreement with this system bringing appreciable rainfall to the region sometime middle of next week.

AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/

VFR conditions are expected to continue at local terminals through mid afternoon. A weak cold front will approach from the northwest after 20Z and will be accompanied by scattered showers with a very low potential for a thunderstorm. Included a tempo for showers at TOL 21-23Z, CLE 23-01Z, and ERI 23-03Z. Showers will likely reach FDY as well but expect to see a general decreasing trend as the front pushes south through the evening so only included showers in the vicinity at MFD/CAK/YNG. Brief MVFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible with showers. Otherwise several terminals will experience breezy southwest winds gusting to around 20 knots ahead of the front, shifting to the west/northwest behind the frontal passage between 00-06Z. A few higher wind gusts to 30 knots are possible with showers.

Outlook...Mainly VFR. Low confidence in non-VFR with rain Sunday night or Monday.

MARINE

Southerly to southwesterly winds increase to 10-20 knots this morning ahead of a cold front before shifting northwesterly 10-15 knots behind the front. Choppy conditions with waves 2-4 feet in the central basin remain possible behind the frontal passage through early Friday morning. Northerly winds diminish to 10-15 knots as high pressure returns on Friday before the high exits to the east on Saturday and winds 10 knots or less shift easterly. Offshore flow 10 knots or less will continue into the early part of next week.

CLIMATE

We are forecast to be within a few degrees of record warmth today. Here are the record high temperatures for our six climate sites on October 29th:

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 10-29 79(2024) 79(1922) 78(2024) 77(1900) 77(2024) 77(2024)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.