textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

There were no changes needed with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure will allow for quiet and near-normal temperatures into this weekend.

2) Scattered periods of showers are expected next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A departing cold front early this morning will allow for high pressure to build southeast across the area today. A few light showers are possible across far northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania early this morning before dry conditions and near- normal temperatures return today. Highs today will be a bit cooler than recent days with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s with mostly sunny skies. On Saturday, highs will be in the low 60s with increasing cloud cover expected. Overnight lows tonight will be the coldest in northwest Pennsylvania with temperatures falling into the low to mid 30s, but elsewhere will remain in the 40s. Lows on Saturday night will be milder, falling into the mid to upper 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... As the aforementioned high pressure drifts towards the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Sunday, a weak warm front will lift north across the area bringing the potential for isolated, light rain showers. The associated low pressure and upper level trough are expected to slowly build east into the region through midweek next week, increasing the potential for showers mid to late week. Overall confidence in the best timing for showers is low given model divergence in the progression of the system as the dominant ridging pattern recently observed slowly becomes progressive. Temperatures through the period will continue to remain above normal with high peaking on Tuesday and Wednesday when temperatures climb into the low to mid 70s.

AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/

At 06Z a cold front extended from ERI to MFD and is moving southeast. Winds ahead of the front are southwesterly but will shift to northwesterly behind the front through 07Z. Rain showers associated with the front have ended but some pockets of MVFR cloud are possible, mainly at ERI but may also briefly impact YNG through 10Z. A longer period of MVFR may linger at ERI with some lake enhanced cloud continuing through Friday morning. Otherwise, most other terminals will trend towards clearing low clouds and mostly sunny skies for today. While a few wind gusts to 20 knots remain possible through about 08Z near Lake Erie, winds will tend to settle into the 5-10 knot range through this afternoon then become light easterly tonight.

Outlook...Apart from low rain chances Monday into Tuesday, mainly VFR expected through Tuesday.

MARINE

This morning, a weak cold front will continue to depart to the east, leaving elevated northwest winds behind the boundary across the central basin of Lake Erie. Onshore winds of 15-20 knots are forecast allowing waves to build to 3-5 feet from Vermilion to Conneaut OH. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for these nearshore waters through 10Z this morning.

Behind this departing boundary, high pressure will begin to build southeast across Lake Erie which will allow winds to weaken to 5-10 knots and slowly a more easterly component into Saturday. On Sunday, a weak warm front will lift north allowing for winds to become south- southwesterly at 5-10 knots which are expected to persist through Monday. As the parent low pressure slowly drifts towards the region, increased gradient on Tuesday will allow for the southerly winds to increase to 10-15 knots before strengthening a bit more on Tuesday night. These elevated winds will likely occur off and on throughout the week as the pattern becomes more progressive. At this point any potential for marine headlines remains low given the marginal conditions expected, but will need to continue to monitor the trend in winds over the coming days.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT early this morning for LEZ145>148.