textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were needed with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A roller coaster of temperatures is expected throughout the next week as an active pattern persists.

2) A robust system is expected to impact the area mid-week, bringing widespread showers and the potential for thunderstorms across the area.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Well below average temperatures will stick around through tonight as high pressure builds over the area. Highs today are expected to only climb into the upper 40s to low 50s before temperatures fall into the upper 20s to low 30s tonight. This will be the coldest night in a while and will pose significant risk to vulnerable vegetation. Will continue to monitor the trend in cloud coverage, but general thinking at this point is that the entire area will need either a frost or freeze headline.

On Sunday, a brief reprieve from the cold will commence as a weak warm front lifts north late, allowing for a WAA to become established and temperatures climbing into the upper 50s to low 60s. The warmest day will be on Monday as temperatures climb into the 70s for much of the area, but as a strong cold front pushes east late Monday/early Tuesday, cooler temperatures will begin to return with highs only in the 60s on Tuesday. Overnight lows will remain fairly mild as temperatures only drop into the upper 40s to 50s.

Unfortunately, by Wednesday below average temperatures return with highs in the mid 50s and overnight lows once again falling into the 30s. Confidence on the exact temperatures this far out is low, but depending on cloud coverage, there is a potential that some areas once again see a frost potential Thursday night. By next weekend, some models are hinting at a return to near normal temperatures, so will have to keep an eye on that potential.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

As high pressure slowly departs to the east towards the beginning of next week, a robust upper level trough will begin to dig south across the Western U.S. On the leading edge of this trough, multiple shortwave are expected to move along it providing support for surface boundaries. The initial push of precipitation is expected to begin Monday night as moist airmass advects northeast across the area. Given the overall timing, not expecting any severe weather, but cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder and localized heavy rainfall. On Tuesday, an associated cold front is expected to push east in conjunction with a LLJ of 30-40 knots nudging northeast. Overall instability looks to remain fairly minimal given early morning convection, but given overall synoptic and mesoscale support, expect some rumbles of thunder throughout Tuesday afternoon. Could see some isolated gusty winds based on the current forecast, but will keep an eye on things as they evolve in the coming days.

The aforementioned deepening trough will continue to impact the area throughout the week as multiple surface boundaries and shortwave troughs provide support for additional showers and thunderstorms. Exact timing of the actual trough axis pushing east remains uncertain given the timing spread amongst models, but expect the strongest cold front to be associated with that trough axis sometime between Thursday and Friday. This push east will also mark the start of the next period of below normal temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/

Mixed-bag of VFR and MVFR across the TAF sites early this morning, mainly associated with lower ceilings. The highest confidence for non-VFR conditions will be at MFD/CLE/CAK/YNG where an area of showers and low ceilings will gradually pivot south through the morning. Some snow may mix in with the rain at times early this morning which could result in MVFR vsbys at times in addition to IFR ceilings. Ceilings are expected to scatter to VFR by the afternoon areawide.

Winds are light and variable early this morning, less than 5 knots. Winds will gradually favor a north to northwest direction later this morning and afternoon, 8 to 10 knots. Winds will become light and variable again later this evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms late Monday through Wednesday as a cold front moves southeast across the area.

MARINE

Generally quiet marine conditions are expected for the first half of the weekend with winds less than 10 knots. Southwest winds will increase in the 15 to 20 knot range ahead of a cold front late Sunday through Monday. A Small Craft Advisory could be needed if winds trend stronger. Otherwise, winds will shift towards the north behind a cold front late Tuesday into Wednesday, 10 to 15 knots. A brief Small Craft Advisory may be needed across the central basin of Lake Erie with the onshore flow resulting in waves near 4 feet.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ003-006>008- 012>014-017>019-022-023-027>033-036>038-047-089. PA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ001. Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ002-003. MARINE...None.