textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The forecast largely remains on track and no significant changes were needed with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cool temperatures and dry weather expected tonight.

2) An unsettled and humid weather pattern returns Tuesday through late week. A few strong storms are possible in Northwest Ohio Tuesday night, although confidence is low.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure will remain in place over the region through tonight. Clear skies will allow for efficient radiational cooling and expect lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s. A few spots across interior NE PA may manage to drip into the low to mid 40s if cooling ends up being more efficient than currently anticipated. This will be the last chilly night of the workweek before temperatures warm up Tuesday onwards.

KEY MESSAGE 2... After a brief break in the unsettled weather pattern, multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will likely impact the area late Tuesday through at least Thursday. The first round of showers and thunderstorms will arrive behind a warm front and with a pre-frontal trough Tuesday evening. There is a small chance of a couple of stronger storms Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, although most CAMs suggest that the best instability will be to the west of the local area and storms will be coming in during a diurnally unfavorable time of day. The severe weather risk may be a little bit higher if storms end up moving in earlier than currently anticipated, but either way bulk shear values of around 30 knots supports an SPC Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe weather with damaging wind gusts being the main concern.

From there, a cold front will push southeast across at least a portion of the area before slowing and wavering over the region Wednesday through late Thursday. This will result in periodic showers and thunderstorms for the mid to late week timeframe. There may be opportunities for a few stronger storms given the proximity of the front, but there is still uncertainty in the exact placement of the boundary and the amount of instability in place each afternoon. Will need to keep an eye on the forecast and update as needed.

It will also be quite humid and warm across the area with highs in the 80s and dew points in the upper 60s and low to mid 70s Wednesday and Thursday. PWAT values will increase to 1.5 to at least 2 inches during this time and flow parallel to the boundary may result in potential in heavy rainfall rates and training showers/thunderstorms.

AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/

High pressure continues to provide for cooler, drier, and VFR conditions through the TAF period. FEW-SCT cumulus around 4000 feet across parts of NE OH/NW PA will continue to clear out through this evening. High clouds will filter through at times. Fog is generally not expected tonight due to a light breeze. Speaking of, north-northeast winds at under 10kt this afternoon will remain light while shifting south-southeast tonight. Winds increase to around 10kt out of the south-southwest on Tuesday.

Outlook...Non-VFR at times in scattered showers/storms Tuesday night through Thursday night.

MARINE

Light and variable winds will continue through early this evening before shifting to the southeast and increasing to 10 to 20 knots ahead of an approaching warm front tonight into Tuesday morning. There may a brief period where winds in the nearshore zones (especially in the western basin) touch 20 knots Tuesday morning, however confidence in winds of 20+ knots is highest in the open waters. Have opted against a Small Craft Advisory for the time being, but will need to keep an eye on wind speeds. The offshore winds will mitigate wave heights and keep the risk of rip currents relatively low. Offshore winds will diminish to roughly 10 to 15 knots Tuesday evening with flow becoming more southwesterly behind the warm front Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Northeast winds of 10 knots or less are expected on the lake as a frontal boundary wavers over the region Wednesday with flow becoming variable Thursday through the end of the week. Winds/waves should remain below Small Craft Advisory limits late this week.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.