textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Wind Advisory across the western counties has been allowed to expire this morning as wind gusts have diminished in intensity.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Decaying convection will continue to spread east, resulting in widespread showers and the potential for gusty winds. Another round of showers is possible Wednesday.

2) Much cooler temperatures arrive midweek and persist through the weekend. The potential for frost/freeze returns Thursday through Saturday nights.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Tonight, a potent low pressure system continue to move northeast through the Midwest. This low pressure system will move a cold front east across the area today providing additional support for showers across the entire CWA. Current upstream convection continues to decay as it pushes east into an area with limited instability and a capped layer. This should limit the severe potential across the area, with eastern counties likely not even hearing thunder by the time showers arrive early this morning. Although the severe potential is limited, these ongoing showers and isolated storms are remaining developed enough to tap into a strong LLJ of 50-60 knots that has pushed northeast over the area tonight ahead of the boundary. This has resulted in periodic wind gusts of 40-50 mph reaching the surface. Given the limited influence from convection itself, opted to handle the wind potential with a short fused Wind Advisory across western counties until 3AM. Isolated gusts after 3AM remain possible, but should be less frequent in nature and thus the advisory will be allowed to expire. Elsewhere across the area, a Wind Advisory will remain in effect until 11AM this morning for Erie County, PA as strong southeast winds will become enhanced due to downsloping and result in wind gusts up to 55 mph possible. Periods of heavy rainfall are possible with this area of showers, especially in the most well developed cells. Given the progressive nature of the system, not expecting any flooding concerns, although localized heavy rainfall may result in ponding on roadways and reductions in visibilities.

Winds should die down through this morning as showers begin to end west to east as the cold front departs. This boundary looks to stall somewhere east of the area which will become the path that another low pressure system will move northeast across the Ohio River Valley. The CWA will remain on the northern side of this low pressure system, allowing for the potential for thunder to remain very low given the much cooler airmass present. Heavy rain is possible as PWATs greater than 1" and a very deep moisture layer will allow for efficient rainfall. There remains limited concern about the potential for flooding on Wednesday as well given the progressive nature of the low, but rainfall totals between the 2- days could exceed 1", especially along and south of US30.

KEY MESSAGE 2... After the departure of the two aforementioned low pressure systems, a Canadian high pressure system will become established, allowing for period of below average temperatures to pursue through the weekend. High temperatures beginning Wednesday will climb into the 50s with overnight lows Thursday night through Saturday night falling into the 30s. Will have to monitor overall trends in temperatures as these overnight periods may require a Frost headline as much of the vegetation has already begun to grow across the area. As always, there are various factors that could contribute to the potential for frost, including the strength of winds and the impact of clearing skies allowing the surface to further cool. Will continue to monitor all of these aspects in coming days. In addition, the CPC has the entire area in an area of below average temperatures into the first week of May in the 6-10 day outlook.

AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/

Conditions across the region vary between MVFR and low-end VFR as the cold front works its way across eastern Ohio. There may be some breaks in the clouds that will create VFR ceilings this afternoon, though most sites won't stay VFR until later this evening around 00Z. A low pressure system will enter the region from the southwest tomorrow morning that will bring widespread showers/thunderstorms to dropping conditions to non-VFR. Sites out west to include KTOL, KMFD, and KFDY will only see showers for a few hours, though ceilings should stay non-VFR through the end of the TAF period. All other sites will see showers through 18Z tomorrow. KCLE will have showers clear out by around 19Z and conditions should improve to VFR.

Winds currently are gusting up to 25-30 knots out of the west- southwest behind the cold front. Into the evening, winds will begin to subside to around 10 knots and veer to be out of the northwest. Some locations in eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania, could drop lower and variable winds are possible. Winds will increase to around 10 knots out of the north tomorrow morning with the approaching low.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday and possible on Thursday night/Friday morning.

MARINE

In the wake of a cold front that will track west to east across Lake Erie beginning early today, offshore winds 20-30kts will become westerly later today 10-15kts and wave heights decreasing to 1-3ft in the nearshore and open water zones. Another area of low pressure that will move southwest to northeast just south of the lake will bring winds onshore Wednesday and Wednesday night 10-20 kts with wave heights 2-4ft, then easing to 10-15kts Thursday and wave heights 1-3ft. These conditions will persist through Friday, and then winds become westerly 10-15kts for the weekend, but wave height results are nearly the same in the 1-3ft range.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ142>149.