textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

There are no impactful changes to the ongoing forecast with this update. Another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Warmer and drier weather will return Memorial Day through the middle of this week.

KEY MESSAGES

1.) Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and evening.

3) Warmer and drier weather will return Memorial Day through the middle of this week with above normal temperatures in the lower to middle 80s.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Weather conditions are starting out mostly rain free with mostly cloudy skies. There are some patchy areas of fog across northwest Ohio this morning. A surface trough west of the area will move across later this afternoon and evening. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will move west to east across the area. Rainfall amounts will be light averaging around a quarter of an inch. High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 70s this afternoon. Rain chances will gradually end from west to west late this evening. Some patchy fog may be possible again late tonight through sunrise Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A change in the weather pattern will bring a return of warmer and drier conditions starting tomorrow on Memorial Day. A weak area of high pressure will build in across the eastern Great Lakes on Monday. Skies will start off mostly cloudy Monday morning with clearing skies by the afternoon. High temperatures for Memorial Day will climb into the middle 70s to near 80 degrees. An upper level ridge will develop over the north central U.S. and western Great Lakes region through the middle of this week. Overall the rain chances will be minimum through the middle of this week with chance POPs possible by Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will warm into the lower and middle 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. Drier weather is expected for the end of the week into the weekend as high pressure builds southward from Ontario and across the Great Lakes. Temperatures will be near seasonable average in the lower and middle 70s for the end of this week.

AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/

Fairly widespread MVFR ceilings are observed across the region with a few pockets of VFR for the southwestern terminals and IFR/LIFR to the east behind the departing rain showers. Ceilings are expected to become mainly IFR to the west and MVFR to the east over the next few hours behind the front. There are signals of lowered visibility across the western terminals west of I-77 this morning due to patchy fog with ceilings of less than 1kft. Conditions will improved slightly by 12-15Z this morning, but will still remain at least MVFR. Rain showers will move into the region this afternoon, though still anticipate MVFR ceilings with isolated reduced visibility.

Winds across the region are around 5 knots out of the south at most locations, with KERI seeing around 20 knots sustained with gusts up to 30 knots due to downsloping. Winds will shift around from the south to the southeast with the rain showers, then become westerly behind, still light at less than 10 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with lingering rain showers and lower ceilings Sunday night into Monday morning. Non-VFR possible with rain showers on Wednesday.

MARINE

Winds have subsided across the eastern basin of Lake Erie down to 5- 10 knots out of the south to southeast. Today, a cold front will pass across Lake Erie and winds will shift to be out of the north at 5-10 knots. Light winds, at less than 10 knots, with waves 1 foot or less are expected across the lake through Wednesday evening as high pressure builds into the region.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.