textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

With this update, added the potential for patchy dense fog tonight, especially across the south central portion of the area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry conditions with gradually increasing temperatures expected through Thursday.

2) Chance of rain returns late Thursday into Friday with the passage of a cold front.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure will continue to influence the weather across northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania through Thursday as a dominant ridge aloft takes a while to shift. Beginning Wednesday, this high will begin to slowly shift towards the Mid-Atlantic Coast, resulting in a southwest flow developing across the area. This will allow for increased moisture advection from the Gulf and warmer air pushing north. Highs to start this week will be in the upper 60s to low 70s but are expected to gradually increase through the week to be in the upper 70s to low 80s Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... As the aforementioned ridge begins to break down and push east midweek, an upper level trough associated with a surface low near the Four Corners region will begin to push east towards the area. The northern portion of this trough will move into the area late Thursday, ultimately allowing a cold front to sag south across the area into Friday. Ahead of this system, increased moisture from a persistent southwest flow will allow for the strong front to bring widespread rain to the area. Given the initial onset of showers overnight, not currently expecting any thunder. However, given a general slowing in the precipitation onset amongst models, if the main cold front pushes east on Friday versus Thursday night, the area could see some thunderstorms activity. This trough should push east late Friday, allow for a weak high to build across the area Saturday before another trough brings rain to the area Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/

Scattered to broken mid-level clouds will persist across portions of NE OH/NW PA through this evening. By late tonight/early Tuesday morning, fog and low stratus will develop across the area. Most terminals will experience a period of MVFR/IFR conditions, although areas of LIFR conditions are likely especially at inland terminals between roughly 09Z and 12Z Tuesday morning. Conditions will gradually improve Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon with VFR expected within a couple of hours of sunrise.

Expect light and variable winds during the TAF period.

Outlook...Mainly VFR expected through Wednesday, though periods of early morning patchy fog and lower clouds are possible. Non- VFR possible in scattered showers Thursday through Saturday.

MARINE

High pressure over the area will keep fairly calm marine conditions across Lake Erie through at least Wednesday. Initial winds for today and Tuesday will mainly be from the north at 5-10 knots allowing for waves along the southern lakeshore to be 2 feet or less. On Wednesday, the aforementioned high will begin to shift towards the Mid-Atlantic Coast, marking a notable shift to southwesterly winds with an increase to 10-15 knots on Wednesday and to 15-20 knots on Thursday. Given the offshore flow, waves along the southern shore should remain 2 feet or less. Given the stronger winds, a brief Small Craft Advisory may be needed on Thursday,

Late Thursday into Friday, a strong cold front is expected to sag southeast across Lake Erie shifting winds to be more northerly at 10-15 knots. As the low pushes east, a brief area of high pressure is expected to build in on Saturday, shifting winds to be from the northeast to 10-20 knots with waves building to 3 feet or less. Will have to monitor the trends in model guidance for any timing adjustments to the cold front.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.