textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Storm Prediction Center has added a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for the potential of a few strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening across northwest Ohio into central Ohio. The rest of the forecast through the weekend into early next week will continue with warmer than average temperatures and several chances for showers and thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGES

1) There is the potential for a couple strong to severe storms later this afternoon into the evening for NWOH into central Ohio. SPC has added a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather later today.

2) Warmer temperatures will continue through the end of the week. The next chance for widespread rainfall will arrive late Friday through early Saturday with a cold front tracking across the region.

3) More unsettled weather is in the forecast early next week with another weather system which will bring showers and thunderstorms with widespread rainfall across the area.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A weak front has drifted southward into the lower Great Lakes and is in the process of stalling out today. This weak front is rather ill-defined but is located from west to east across the local area. There are some scattered showers and isolated thunder this morning across parts of NEOH and NWPA which is associated with this boundary. Most of these scattered showers will slowly drift out of the area and fade away later this morning. Skies will be variable sun and clouds at times but overall it will be a decent day for most of the area. Temperatures will climb in the 70s for much of northern Ohio into NWPA. The immediate lakeshore may stay in the 60s due to a light onshore flow and weak lake breeze later today.

The latest high-res near term model guidance has indicated the potential for some scattered convection to redevelop near the front later this afternoon into the evening. This potential is mainly for northwest Ohio into central Ohio where this boundary will stall out later today. This potential for a few stronger to isolated severe convection to develop today is why SPC has NWOH and NCOH highlighted in a marginal risk for severe storms (level 1 of 5) with the main threat being large hail up to the size of quarters and isolated damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph. Forecast model guidance indicates around 2000 Jules of MLCAPE will develop during the afternoon. Bulk shear values are marginal around 30 knots later today. There is also a weak mid level disturbance in the 500 mb flow near Chicago this morning that will move eastward across the area and help in the development of scattered afternoon convection along the weak front. The storm mode expected will be clusters of storms and should decrease in coverage by late evening around or after sunset.

KEY MESSAGE 2... The stalled front will lift northeastward late Thursday as a warm front. It may try again to spark off a couple isolated showers or storms Thursday afternoon over north central and northeast Ohio. But the coverage should be limited and unorganized convection with POPs around 20 percent on Thursday. Temperatures will climb in the middle to upper 70s with some locations reach 80 degrees possibly Thursday. A southerly flow will become more established and start to increase by Friday ahead of an approaching cold front tracking eastward across the Midwest into the Great Lakes region. Most of the day Friday looks dry but rain chances will start to creep back into the forecast Friday afternoon and especially towards the evening/overnight. High temperatures will be back in the middle 70s to near 80 areawide before the rain chances move in late in the day. The cold front will track across Friday night with widespread showers and isolated thunder. It will bring widespread light to moderate rainfall for the entire area with average amounts up to half an inch possible. High pressure and slightly cooler temperatures will return this weekend but continue to remain seasonable mild in the middle to upper 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 3... The next weather system to impact the region with unsettled, wet conditions will move in next Monday through Tuesday. The medium range model guidance is a little uncertain on the timing and overall evolution of how to handle that possible low pressure system. But the general expectations will be a well developed surface low pressure system that develops over the Midwest and tracks through the Upper Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes late Monday into early Tuesday. More April showers will be around early next week and maybe some breezy conditions as well. Temperatures will still continue to be seasonable mild to warm and above average for late April standards going into early next week.

AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

A weak cold front will sag south this morning and allow for low VFR clouds to exit stage right. This afternoon will feature light westerly winds with generally clear skies. Some convection should develop over northern Indiana this afternoon and spread southeast over Northwest Ohio. The highest confidence in TS at a location is just KFDY and have maintained a PROB30. Any rain is conditional at KTOL and KMFD and will continue to omit from the TAFs. High pressure will build in tonight and allow for clearing conditions with light easterly winds. Some fog will be possible in Northwest and North Central Ohio, mainly where any rain tracks this afternoon and evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and storms Friday and Saturday.

MARINE

Benign weather and generally light winds remain expected on Lake Erie through the forecast period. Conditions are starting off quiet with light southwesterly flow ahead of a front. This front should eventually allow for winds to become onshore today. High pressure building from the north tonight will shift winds to the east/northeast through Thursday. This surface high will shift east on Thursday night and allow for light southerly flow to be favored near the shoreline. A low pressure system will target the region for Friday and Saturday. Southeast to east flow will increase ahead of this system on Friday. The low will then move southeast across the lake on Saturday and winds will shift around to the north, where they should remain for the weekend, as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. No marine weather headlines are expected at this time.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.