textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes from the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread rain will arrive with a cold front Thursday night into Friday.

2) Cool and dry weather is expected behind the front this weekend into next week. Frost/Freeze headlines are possible, especially Monday and Tuesday nights.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... The latest satellite and radar imagery reveal an area of widespread cloud cover and rain slowly moving east through the Midwest and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon along an arcing baroclinic zone, well ahead of a stronger upper-level trough and surface cold front. Generally light rain is expected with this activity later this evening and overnight as it sags east, mainly along the lakeshore.

The more steady and widespread rain will arrive Thursday night into Friday as the surface cold front interacts with a potent mid-level shortwave. This will bring a narrow area of deep moisture profiles into the area, with PWATs reaching 1.8 to 2.0 inches at times. Given the recent dry pattern across the region (3-hr FFGs averaging 2 to 2.5 inches), not anticipating any significant water issues, though can't rule out some isolated nuisance flooding, especially along or west of the I-71 corridor where low probabilities exist (10 to 30%) for 6-hr rain amounts of 1 to 2 inches. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts should generally remain at or below 1 inch, but nonetheless, a good soaking rain.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Following a brief spell of high pressure behind the first cold front Friday into Saturday, another reinforcing cold front will move south through the area on Sunday as a stronger area of Canadian high pressure builds south across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Below average temperatures and dry weather is favored with this pattern with highs generally in the upper 50s to 60s and lows in the upper 30s to 40s. This pattern could bring our first widespread Frost/Freeze threat, especially Monday and Tuesday nights where light winds and clear skies will result in efficient radiative cooling.

AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/

VFR conditions will continue across terminals through the TAF period. Light rain showers will push east across northern terminals (KTOL/KCLE/KERI) this evening into tonight. Some mid- level ceilings of 6-9 kft are expected with rain showers.

Southerly to southwesterly winds 5-10 knots continue through Thursday morning. Southern sites (KFDY/KMFD/KCAK/KYNG) and KERI may see southwesterly winds gusts to 18-20 knots by Thursday afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with rain showers Thursday night through Friday afternoon.

MARINE

Generally quiet marine conditions are expected through Thursday as southwest winds of 10 to 15 knots are expected. Choppy conditions will return across Lake Erie behind a cold front Thursday night into Friday as winds shift towards the north to northwest, around 15 knots, though brief 20-knot winds immediately behind the front cannot be ruled out. A Small Craft Advisory is possible on Friday and Friday night, mainly across the Central Basin. The next period for rough marine conditions will arrive Sunday night into Monday as a reinforcing cold front moves south across the region, ushering in more widespread north to northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots. Small Craft Advisories are appearing more likely during this timeframe.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.