textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Isolated showers continue to move east across the area this morning, but the severe threat has ended. Gusty winds will continue to ramp up this morning and persist for much of today.

KEY MESSAGES

1) West-southwesterly winds will remain gusty through into this evening with gusts as high as 40 mph. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the eastern lakeshore counties where wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

2) Periodic showers are possible through the weekend with this greatest chance Sunday into early next week. Below average temperatures are expected to stick around.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... As a strong low pressure system drifts towards New England and the associated upper level trough axis pushes east of the area, a surface trough is expected to persist over the area today. The resultant increased gradient over the area coupled with a strong LLJ of 40-50 knots will result in widespread breezy conditions today. Currently forecast is sustained winds through today of 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. The exception is across the eastern Lake Erie lakeshore counties where localized gusts up to 50 mph are possible given further enhancement from downsloping. Initial winds this morning will be from the southwest before backing this afternoon to be more west-northwesterly. There is a bit of uncertainty with how much the daytime heating will enhance mixing which may ultimately result in an over-performing wind event across the area. Will continue to monitor trends through this afternoon in the wind field for any additional headlines needed. Given the time of year and leafed out trees, these widespread gusty winds do have the potential to topple trees and result in power outages. The good news is this event will be fairly short as winds quickly diminish near sunset tonight to become 5-10 mph.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Behind the departing cold front this morning, a CAA regime will develop and persist into next week. This will result in widespread below average temperatures as highs primarily linger in the 70s with overnight lows cooling into the 50s. This colder air will also bring the potential for light lake enhanced showers to impact areas downstream of Lake Erie late today into the overnight hours. Primarily dry weather is expected for Friday and Saturday before another round of synoptically driven precipitation arrives late Sunday into Monday.

AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/

Scattered convection continues to push east across the area, primarily impacting the far eastern terminals at this point. There is a potential for additional showers and thunderstorms to develop across the remainder of the area over the next few hours, but overall extent and impact is expected to remain limited. Behind these departing showers and cold front, a period of lower MVFR ceilings will move across terminals. These ceilings should begin to lift early this morning, becoming widespread VFR by mid to late morning.

The primary aviation concern for this TAF period is the strong forecast winds expected at all terminals as a strong LLJ move over the area. Southwest winds of 15-20 knots will gradually back to west-northwesterly this afternoon. Through 00Z Friday, all terminals will experience wind gusts of 25-35 knots. Conditions will gradually improve this evening, eventually becoming west-southwest winds of 5-10 knots after 00Z.

Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR will continue through Friday.

MARINE

Hazardous marine conditions are expected today as a strong low pressure system gradually pushes east towards New England. The increased gradient over the area will result in strong southwest winds 20-25 knots early this morning, increasing to 30-35 knots west-southwest gales by late morning as the cold front pushes east. These strong winds will result in waves along the lakeshore building to 6-8 feet across the central and eastern basins, where slightly weaker winds in the western basin will keep waves to 4-6 feet. Either way, these high winds and building waves will result in the development of strong rip currents and will also be hazardous to small ships. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the western basin with a Gale Warning elsewhere and the entire lakeshore has a Beach Hazards Statement given the high risk of rip currents. All hazards will expire this evening. In addition, the strong southwest flow will result in water levels falling in the western basin. These levels are expected to fall below the critical mark for safe navigation which is currently 13 inches. A Low Water Advisory has been issued for the western basin as well.

By tonight, marine conditions should gradually begin to improve with northwest winds weakening to 10-15 knots and waves falling to 3 feet or less. These winds will veer a bit on Friday, becoming more westerly and increasing to 15-20 knots during the afternoon hours. This may build waves across the central and eastern basins to near 4 feet and require a short fused Small Craft Advisory before calm conditions return Friday night.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for OHZ003-007- 009>012-089. Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for OHZ011>014-089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for PAZ001. Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001-002. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>144. Low Water Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ142>144-162>164. Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for LEZ145>149- 165>169.