textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes with this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure builds into the region today with quiet weather expected over the next couple of days.

2) Showers and thunderstorms expected Wednesday and Saturday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Low pressure that brought showers and thunderstorms exits into Northeastern Canada as the accompanying cold front drifts to the southeast of the region into the Mid-Atlantic. Zonal flow aloft will take hold across the region today as high pressure begins to builds into the Mid-Mississippi Valley at the surface. The high will drift to the east to be overhead, then exit to the east by Tuesday evening. There is potential for patchy fog for areas away from the lakeshore Tuesday morning due to the saturated low levels and ground from the previous days precipitation and a fairly stable atmosphere underneath the high. Humidity will decrease through the day Tuesday and dew points will be in the low 60s providing some relief to the "sticky" air we've had over the past several days. Temperatures will stay consistent in the upper 70s to low 80s across the region today and Tuesday with overnight lows a little cooler than they have been at upper 50s to low 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Upper level troughing will move into southern Hudson Bay late Tuesday evening as a surface low pressure system moves north of the Great Lakes. In general, this system is trending to be on the weaker side and given that it will move through the area early Wednesday morning through the midday, potential for severe weather remains on the low end. Instability will be low with the southern and eastern counties of the area being on the higher end of that. With that, currently only general thunderstorms are expected Wednesday midday through the early evening. Precipitation chances will decrease through the evening as the cold front moves northwest to southeast across the region. There may be some lingering showers across the Central Ohio as some upper level energy moves through the Ohio Valley.

There will be a brief break in precipitation Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds in. Low pressure will enter the Great Lakes region Saturday morning and bring a cold front through the area Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. Currently with that timing, there may be some severe weather potential Saturday afternoon and evening as instability will have the chance to increase with daytime heating. A few AI models are also picking up on the severe weather potential, highlighting the eastern two-thirds of the area. Given that this is several days away, there is a lot of uncertainty in timing and much of the details so a shift one way or the other could impact the severe potential. Will need to monitor over the coming days to see how the system progresses.

AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/

There remains some lingering mid level ceilings 1500-2500 ft across central and eastern terminals this afternoon. Conditions have improved to VFR behind an eastward tracking cold front. Expect for lingering MVFR ceilings to improve to VFR as the cold front exits to the east later this afternoon into early this evening. VFR ceilings will continue this evening through the remainder of the TAF period. Patchy mist/fog is expected to develop tonight into early Tuesday morning. Primarily MVFR ceilings are expected in any BR/FG with IFR possible at MFD. Northwest winds 5-10 knots this afternoon will become light and variable overnight before becoming westerly at 5-10 knots late in the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible on Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE

North winds 10-15 knots this evening will become light and variable overnight tonight as high pressure moves overhead. Southwest flow develops on Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the west. Southwest winds will increase to 15-20 knots with the passing cold front Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will lead to wave heights building to 2-3 feet in the central and eastern basins of the lake. Winds shift northerly behind the cold front Wednesday evening and northeasterly by Thursday as high pressure approaches from the northwest.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.