textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered forecast lows for early this morning. Added a low chance of snow to the forecast for Northwest Pennsylvania tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A warming trend begins today with above normal temperatures forecast through next week, effectively melting the snowpack across the region.

2) Rain is likely on Wednesday with precipitation amounts of generally a third of an inch or less.

KEY MESSAGE 2

The primary opportunity for precipitation in the forecast is on Wednesday when rain is possible along a warm front. Shortwave energy on the nose of a 150 knot upper level jet will lift out of the Plains towards the Great Lakes Region on Tuesday night. Overrunning precipitation is likely to develop from west to east across the area from Tuesday night into Wednesday. Models focus more of the precipitation north of Lake Erie and there is still some potential that we do not see rain with this system, but probabilities for measurable rain are 60 percent or higher across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania on Wednesday. Precipitation amounts are forecast to be a third of an inch or less and fall as rain.

AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/

VFR conditions are seen across the region, with a few exceptions for non-VFR visibility. Those should improve to VFR within the next few hours and remain through the majority of the TAF period. Skies will be mostly clear throughout the day, with some lingering lake effect clouds across northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania. Higher clouds will move in across the region throughout the day before a low-VFR deck moves over the northeastern terminals impacting KERI and KYNG around 00Z this evening. Winds will be light through the TAF period, staying less than 10 knots out of the south to southwest. Outlook...Mostly VFR is expected through the weekend into early next week.

MARINE

Lake Erie remains mostly ice covered, though will begin to deteriorate in the coming days as temperatures begin to warm with a southwesterly wind. Winds are currently light across the lake, around 5 knots out of the west to southwest increasing to around 10 knots out of the southwest throughout the day today. There will be a brief peak in the winds, around 15-20 knots tonight into early Saturday before decreasing again Saturday. Light winds are expected with high pressure across the region through the weekend into early next week.

With the southwesterly winds and potential ice deterioration, ice movement is possible east of the islands along the southern shore of Lake Erie. Especially during the period of stronger winds tonight into Saturday morning, ice could break off the shore and move to the northeast. Warming temperatures will increase this possibility, though as mentioned above, winds will be light in the near future and precipitation potential is low, which could overall limit ice movement.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.