textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

There were no changes needed with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure will continue to influence the area into the start of next week allowing for quiet weather and gradually warming temperatures.

2) Periodic showers are possible early next week before becoming more widespread mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure has settled over the region and will continue to influence the are into early next week as it slowly drift east. Temperatures through the period will start in the low to mid 60s today before gradually climbing into the 70s by Tuesday. Overnight lows will follow a similar trend with lows tonight falling into the mid 40s to low 50s before becoming more mild by Tuesday night in the mid to upper 50s. As this high drifts east on Monday and winds become more southerly, the increase in WAA couples with additional moisture nudging north will present the potential for isolated, light showers Monday and Tuesday but not expecting anything widespread. As a result, the majority of the area will continue to remain dry through Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... The dominant ridge that has influenced the area for the past couple weeks will finally begin to breakdown as a deepening upper level trough pushes south across the central US. This trough will progress eastward, ultimately moving an associated low pressure system into the region on Wednesday and Thursday. This system will likely bring widespread precipitation and end the prolonged period of no rainfall throughout the month of October. There remains low confidence in the exact timing as it diverges amongst models and model runs, but given the agreed upon robustness of the system, confidence is increasing that much of the area will see rainfall midweek. Temperatures through the end of the week will remain above normal.

AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/

VFR ceilings will continue through the next 24 hours. Winds will be light from the southeast 5 to 10 knots through Sunday morning.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rain on Tuesday night into Wednesday.

MARINE

High pressure over the area will allow for calm marine conditions through Monday. East/southeast winds around 10 knots will allow for waves of 2 feet or less along the southern lakeshore through Monday. As the high pressure system shifts east towards the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Tuesday, winds will gain a more south-southwesterly flow and increase to 10-15 knots. By midweek, a robust low pressure system is expected to push into the area, ultimately bringing a cold front east across Lake Erie on Wednesday or Thursday. Confidence in timing remains low, but given the increased gradient across the area with its passage, winds will likely increase initially from the south to 15-25 knots before shifting to west-northwesterly behind the boundary. There may be a marine headline needed for this system, but given the lack of model consistency there is low confidence on when that would be needed.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.