textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

There are no significant or impactful forecast changes with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Turning seasonably cooler and breezy today through this weekend with lake effect cloudiness and scattered rain showers lingering through Saturday night.

2) Milder than average temperatures and fair weather conditions will return Sunday through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... The overall weather pattern today through the weekend will be driven by a sharp upper level trough digging across the Great Lakes region. The first of two cold fronts is currently moving through the area this morning with not much fanfare in our weather. There is a broken line of rain showers along this front that will continue to track eastward through sunrise this morning. Our recent very mild temperatures will be knocked down closer to average today into Friday. The second and stronger cold front will sweep southward across the region Friday, bringing a quick shot of colder weather for the weekend. With the colder air moving over the very mild Great Lakes will also bring lake effect cloudiness and scattered lake effect rain showers Friday through Saturday night. It will be a reality check from our recent stretch of very mild and quiet weather that we have enjoyed since early October.

We have likely already reached our max temperatures for this 24 hour day before this cold frontal passage. Temperatures will generally hold steady or a slow fall later today staying in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. Winds will remain breezy from the south to southwest today 10 to 20 mph. Cooler temperatures move back in overnight falling into the 40s with cloudy skies. Mainly dry weather for most of the overnight but POPs increase towards the predawn hours as the secondary and stronger cold front starts to move into the region. That cold front will sweep across the area quickly Friday morning followed by a colder shot of air Friday through this weekend. The sharp upper level trough will dig over the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday which will bring a more typical fall weather setup that we associate with lake effect clouds as well as scattered rain showers downwind of the lakes. One note worthy weather stat to mention is the current Lake Erie water temperature is in the low 60s. That current water temp is running about 8 to 10 degrees above normal for early November. High temps will generally be in the 50s Friday afternoon and this weekend. Some locations in the Snowbelt region may struggle to get out of the 40s on Saturday. It will also be blustery Friday through Saturday night which will also make it feel colder adding a bit of a wind chill factor. Overall, rainfall amounts from the cold front Friday and scattered lake effect rain showers through Saturday night will be on the light side, around a tenth to maybe a couple tenths in the Snowbelt of NEOH and NWPA.

KEY MESSAGE 2... There is some better weather retuning in the forecast Sunday through early or middle of next week. High pressure will build back across the Ohio Valley starting Sunday and continue to dominate our weather pattern through maybe Wednesday. More seasonable and fair weather conditions will return for our area to end the weekend and early next week. Temperatures will slowly climb back above average early next week, starting out with 50s for afternoon highs Sunday but 60s come back in the forecast by early next week. Some bigger weather changes may be on the far horizon or just beyond our 7 day forecast period. Model guidance is starting to indicate that stronger weather system may develop over the Great Lakes region by the end of next week with a bigger push of colder weather and lake effect precip. Stay tuned!

AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/

A swatch of primarily VFR conditions has pushed across the area this morning, although ceilings continue to linger in the 3-5 kft range. Any lingering MVFR conditions should improve to VFR by this afternoon and persist through the evening before the next frontal boundary approaches the area. With this boundary, ceilings will once again fall into MVFR heights beginning near 06Z for western terminals and spreading east throughout the morning. In addition, additional rain showers are possible near the end of this period which could result in patches of non-VFR visibilities Friday morning. Only terminals that confidence was high enough to add prevailing precipitation was KTOL and then opted to handle other terminals with VCSH.

Southwest winds will ramp up this morning into the early afternoon hours to be sustained at 10-14 knots with gusts of 20-25 knots possible at all terminals. Near sunset, gusts will weaken and winds will become 5-10 knots. As the aforementioned boundary begins to push east Friday morning, winds will gradually back to northwesterly at 5-10 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with a cold front followed by scattered lake effect clouds and rain showers Friday through Saturday night.

MARINE

Southwesterly flow over Lake Erie will increase later this morning through the early evening 15 to 25 knots and waves away from the immediate lakeshore 2 to 5 feet. Small Craft Advisories will go into effect later this morning through the early evening. Winds will decrease 10 to 15 knots from the west- southwest tonight. A stronger cold front will sweep across the lake Friday morning followed by northwest flow 20 to 25 knots and higher waves Friday through Saturday evening. Additional headlines will be needed for Friday through Saturday evening.

Winds will gradually decrease Saturday night and Sunday with high pressure building back into region. There may be a brief uptick in westerly winds Sunday night into Monday with a low pressure system passing by north of the Great Lakes. A more active and typical late fall weather pattern may develop later next week with rough conditions on the lake.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ142>145. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ146>149.