textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The tornado watch has been canceled and severe thunderstorms are no longer expected for the rest of the day.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The next period of unsettled weather is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday, bringing periods of moderate to heavy rain and perhaps a few stronger thunderstorms. Light snow is also possible with this system Wednesday night.

2) A clipper system will move east through the Upper Great Lakes on Friday which could bring a rain/snow mix to the local area.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A digging upper-level trough and intensifying jet streak are expected on Wednesday, favoring a deepening low pressure as it tracks from the mid-Mississippi Valley towards southern Ontario. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected with the warm front initially as it lifts northward across the area Tuesday night. There could be a few stronger storms with the warm front depending on the timing (afternoon/evening = better shot at strong storms....if it's late at night, strong storms unlikely).

Most model guidance have our entire forecast area well within the warm sector on Wednesday, with breezy southwest flow (50-60% chance of gusts > 30 kts) and very warm conditions (highs in the low 70s; could be close to record highs). Strong forcing will lead to the development of showers and thunderstorms, with a very favorable wind field for organized, severe convection. Severe thunderstorms are tough to forecast, so while synoptic conditions are favorable with the current suite of model guidance, it will likely come to smaller-scale details, which will be ironed out as we get closer.

A very strong cold front will swing through sometime Wednesday evening, with an impressive temperature drop forecast as highs in the low 70s Wednesday afternoon drop to lows around 30 Wednesday night. Some residual moisture will allow for some snow showers Wednesday night with light snow accumulations not out of the question. The latest NBM has a 30-50% chance of >1" of snow in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania (15-30% chance elsewhere).

KEY MESSAGE 2... Low pressure is expected to swing through the northern Great Lakes Friday into Saturday. Some light rain (maybe some snow early) is possible with a warm front on Friday. Breezy conditions (40-70% chance > 30 kts, highest in Northwest Ohio) and above normal temperatures (mid 50s Friday afternoon) are expected behind the warm front on Friday, before a rain to snow transition of precipitation is expected with a cold front on Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/

At 00Z a cold front extends from near Detroit to Fort Wayne Indiana and is moving southeast. The remnants of the afternoon rain are just about to exit the eastern portions of the forecast area while light rain showers along the cold front are expected to move west to east across the area between 00-07Z. Conditions are VFR ahead of the front but will lower to MVFR as the front arrives. Most of the rain showers will tend to be light but visibilities may occasionally drop to MVFR. A few locations may see brief IFR conditions but only included a Tempo where it is most likely at MFD. Winds are expected to gust to 20-25 knots along and behind the front with a wind shift from southwest to westerly.

On Sunday morning, a surface ridge will build in from the southwest and subsidence along with considerable drying should allow for clouds to scatter out from west to east between 14-17Z. Southwest winds will be breezy again on Sunday with gusts to 20-25 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR is likely with showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday followed by a rain/snow mix Wednesday night into Thursday.

MARINE

Southwest winds around 20 knots or so continue through this evening before a cold front swings and winds weaken to around 10 knots tonight as high pressure briefly builds in. High pressure moves off to the east, with southwest flow around 10-15 knots continuing through Tuesday. A deepening low pressure system is expected to move just north of the lake on Wednesday, with south to southwest flow increasing to around 20 to 25 knots on the lake. Warm and breezy conditions through this period is likely to accelerate ice decay. A strong cold front will follow with northwest winds of 20-30 knots likely Wednesday night into Thursday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.