textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes from previous forecast cycle.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warming temperatures this weekend into next week could bring heat indices greater than 95F to portions of the area, with heat headlines possible.

2) Active weather pattern focused along the periphery of the upper ridge could bring some strong storms and heavy rainfall to the region next week, although confidence remains low on specific impacts to the local area.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Models continue to show mid/upper level ridging building into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by early next week. High temperatures reaching the upper 80s to low 90s is possible Monday through Wednesday, with heat indices in the mid 90s possible. NBM probabilities for heat indices greater than 95F peak on Wednesday, with elevated probs Tuesday and Thursday as well. Heat headlines are not out of the question at this point, especially in the western/southwestern portions of the area, but probs of heat indices greater than 100F remain low at this time. Heat impacts could be elevated with even 95F heat indices given the time of year. Realizing these temperatures will be contingent on shower/thunderstorm activity and resultant cloud cover, however at this time convection is expected to be primarily focused north of the area Tuesday and Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Despite model solution convergence on building ridge into the Great Lakes region next week, confidence remains low on potential for organized convection that could periodically impact the area. A warm front will lift north into the area Sunday, with organized convection possible upstream across the central Great Lakes sliding southeast along this front. Models are a bit further north with this activity than 24 hours ago, which would keep most of this activity north of the forecast area. The overall pattern looks to become more northwest flow through midweek vs. the more zonal mid/upper level pattern reflected by last night's model runs. Despite this, the best mid/upper flow should remain north of the area during this time, although organized convective complexes may favor a track towards the area if sufficient destabilization manifests. The best precip chances will be Thursday as a cold front pushes south into the area as a potent mid/upper trough/low digs southeast towards the lower Great Lakes/New England.

AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/

VFR expected through the TAF period. There's low confidence in patchy fog across eastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania tonight that may drop visibility briefly but no impacts expected at terminals. Scattered to broken high clouds are expected with some diurnal scattered clouds around 5kft possible tomorrow afternoon. Winds will be light around 5 knots out of the south with a brief lake breeze possible at KCLE and KERI. Outlook...Non-VFR possible Sunday night into Monday with showers and thunderstorms and again on Wednesday.

MARINE

Quiet marine conditions are expected through the weekend with high pressure building overhead and drifting eastward through Sunday evening. A warm front will move north across Lake Erie on Monday that will bring potential for showers and thunderstorms. Through Wednesday night, winds will be out of the south to southwest generally between 5-15 knots with waves 2 feet or less. Low pressure will enter the region on Wednesday with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across the lake.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.