textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes were made to the forecast with this full update besides increasing winds and gusts for most of Friday through Friday night. This is when a deepening clipper-type low pressure system should impact our area. Confidence continues to increase that the clipper will generate widespread light to moderate accumulating snow in northern OH and NW PA this Thursday night through Friday.

KEY MESSAGES

1.) Light to moderate snow is expected to impact the region late Thursday night through Friday evening.

3.) Behind an Arctic front Friday, gusty northwesterly winds will bring dangerous wind chills Friday evening through Saturday night.

3.) Primarily below-normal temperatures are expected through Monday before temperatures rebound to near-average values by early to middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure is building into the Ohio Valley this afternoon and overnight. There are some lingering light lake effect flurries coming off Lake Erie this afternoon, but no accumulation or impacts are expected. The next impactful weather system will come on Friday with another clipper and Arctic cold front. Ahead of this clipper system will be a warm front lifting from southwest to northeast across the region Thursday night. A band of light snow is expected to develop along this warm front Thursday night into early Friday morning. Widespread light to moderately snow will develop along and ahead of the advancing Arctic front Friday morning through Friday evening.

Some of the Wed 12z hi-res forecast guidance indicates some potential for burst of heavier snow and snow squalls along the passage of the Arctic front Friday afternoon/evening. Behind the front, there will be a short time window Friday evening through Saturday morning of scattered lake effect snow showers and brief squalls for the snowbelt. All of northern Ohio may see a total 1 to 3 inches of snowfall between Thursday night through Friday evening. The snowbelt of northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania may see a total of 2 to 4 inches of snowfall, localized higher possible, between Thursday night and Saturday morning. Friday morning and evening commute may be impacted by snow and wintry travel conditions, especially later in the day.

KEY MESSAGE 2... After a brief warm-up in the temperatures Friday with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s, another push of Arctic cold and dangerous wind chills will arrive Friday night through the weekend. Actual air temperatures will drop between 5F and -5F Friday night into early Saturday morning. Gusty northwest winds 15 to 25 mph will cause wind chill values to drop -10F to -20F Friday night and Saturday. A cold weather advisory will likely be needed. High temperatures on Saturday will only reach 6F to 13F at most locations. Overnight low temperatures Saturday night into early Sunday morning will bottom out at 2F to -8F across the area with the wind chill between -5F and -15F. Temperatures will slowly recover into the upper teens and lower 20a on Sunday for afternoon high temps.

KEY MESSAGE 3... The Arctic cold this weekend will slowly moderate going into early next week. Overnight low temperatures Sunday night into Monday morning will be very cold in the single digits to lower teens. Wind chills early Monday morning will be near or slightly above zero. Monday's highs temperatures will rebound closer to the freezing mark, upper 20s to lower 30s. Overall the forecast trend Monday through middle of next week is for temperatures to be closer to seasonable average for early to mid February.

AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/

Most terminals will continue to experience MVFR ceilings through this afternoon before an area of clearing likely provides a period of VFR ceilings at most locations this evening into tonight. However, widespread stratus will cause ceilings to deteriorate to MVFR by early Thursday morning with patchy fog/mist likely at KTOL/KFDY/KMFD between roughly 06Z and 15Z Thursday. There is potential for a period of IFR conditions primarily in lower stratus at inland locations early Thursday morning. Ceilings will likely begin to improve to VFR from the west by early Thursday afternoon.

Light snow showers are possible areawide through the remainder of this afternoon, but do not expect any additional restrictions due to snow.

Winds will be out of the north at 10 knots or less this afternoon before becoming light and variable tonight. Winds will shift to the southwest but remain relatively light mid to late morning Thursday.

Outlook...Periods of non-VFR likely in low-level clouds and/or snow showers through Thursday. Non-VFR likely Thursday night into Friday evening as a clipper system brings snow to the area. Northwest wind gusts of 30-35 knots will be possible Friday evening.

MARINE

Lake Erie remains mostly ice covered and ice will continue to thicken and expand as temperatures remain below normal through the end of the week. Light northwest winds are expected through tonight before shifting to the southwest by Thursday afternoon. The southwest winds will increase to 10 to 20 knots as a warm front approaches Thursday night before winds shift to the northwest and increase to 20 to 30 knots behind a cold front Friday evening into Saturday morning. Northwest winds will diminish Saturday afternoon and expect offshore flow with sustained wind speeds under 10 knots anticipated Sunday through Monday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.