textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the previous forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Pleasant conditions stick around through Tuesday.

2) Chance of showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday afternoon through the evening. Scattered strong to severe storms are possible with strong winds and heavy rainfall the primary hazards.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A dominant upper level ridge will remain over the region through Tuesday allowing for dry and pleasant conditions to continue. Sunny skies today will give way to some high clouds building across the area tomorrow. High temperatures today will climb into the mid to upper 70s before warming a bit on Tuesday with increased WAA into the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows tonight will drop into the mid to upper 50s before remaining more mild in the upper 60s to low 70s Tuesday night. In addition to increased WAA over the area, a shift to southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front will increase dewpoints on Tuesday, resulting in more humid conditions returning to the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Unsettled weather returns to the area on Wednesday as a cold front associated with a low over Canada is expected to push east across the area. An strengthening LLJ coupled with favorable diurnal timing of showers should aid in shower and storm development across the area Wednesday afternoon through the evening hours. Increasing PWAT values coupled with a deep warm layer will also present the potential for locally heavy rainfall and subsequent isolated flooding concerns. Models are still diverging on the exact timing which would play into the severe potential, but at this point both SPC and WPC maintain a Marginal Risk (1 of 5) across much of the area.

Aside from the severe potential, winds are expected to be gusty on Wednesday from the southwest with sustained winds of 10-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph possible. Areas east of I71 are most likely to receive these gusty winds. High temperatures for the week will peak on Wednesday as they climb into the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows will linger in the mid to upper 60s.

AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes region. Some high cirrus will be filtering in and out of the airspace through the forecast period and there could be a brief ceiling on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Winds through the period will start easterly and shift to the south/southeast for Tuesday. The southeast shift will be sooner for KERI and KCLE with a land breeze developing. A modified lake breeze will develop on Tuesday and allow for northeast winds to return to KERI late Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday. Some storms could contain gusty winds Wednesday afternoon and evening.

MARINE

Calm marine conditions will persist for the remainder of the holiday and into Tuesday with northeast flow of 10-15 knots expected. These winds may result in isolated waves of 1-3 feet, however not expecting those conditions to be widespread or persistent. Tuesday night winds will shift to southwesterly ahead of an approaching cold front and increase to 15-20 knots. These stronger winds will persist through Wednesday before weakening and becoming northwesterly at 5-10 knots by Thursday morning. Given offshore flow, much of the lakeshore should see 1-3 foot waves, however as winds slowly begin to gain a more northerly component, a few isolated waves of 3-5 feet may occur across the eastern basin on Wednesday. As a result, Wednesday may need a Small Craft Advisory. On Thursday, high pressure returns along with pleasant marine conditions which should persist through the weekend.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.