textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minimal changes were made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and somewhat mild weather is expected through midweek.

2) Cooler with unsettled weather returning late week. While snow may mix in at times starting Friday, impactful accumulations are rather unlikely.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Surface high pressure will continue to largely influence the forecast through the first half of this week. Low pressure tracking east across Ontario into Quebec will drag a cold front across the region on Tuesday. Not anticipating any rain chances with this cold front. Lows tonight will fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s for most, low to mid 30s for inland locations in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Mild tomorrow with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the region. Cooler again on Tuesday night with lows in the low to mid 30s, upper 30s closer to the lakeshore.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Dry and mild conditions will come to an end Wednesday into Thursday as a large upper trough and embedded shortwaves move into the eastern CONUS. Precipitation chances increase Wednesday afternoon onward as surface low pressure pushes eastward into the Lower Ohio Valley from the Central Plains. Precipitation type will initially begin as rain Wednesday night into Thursday. With the introduction of cooler air aloft (850mb temperatures dipping between -4 and -7C by Thursday night), there is the potential for some wet snow flakes to mix in with rain Thursday night into Friday.

The low will exit to the east and introduce steady northerly flow coupled with plenty of low level moisture and additional shortwaves aloft. This will bring a prolonged period of lake effect rain/snow showers downwind of the lakes Friday into the weekend. Overall, snow accumulations look minimal and confined to higher elevation locations across Northwest Pennsylvania. An area of high pressure will move overhead from the west, but lake effect showers will likely continue into early next week as low level moisture will be slow to decrease.

AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/

Lake effect clouds linger across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through this evening, with periodic MVFR ceilings possible at KERI over the next several hours. Once clouds dissipate, VFR conditions expected through the rest of the TAF period with occasional upper-level cirrus.

Northwest winds of 6-10 knots gradually dissipate to around 5 knots by late this evening. Winds quickly become southwest shortly after sunset following the passage of a warm front, gradually increasing to around 6-10 knots. A cold front swings through during the day Tuesday, with winds becoming westerly and then nearly northwest by Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR will be likely with low stratus ceilings and periods of rain showers Wednesday night through Saturday. Some wet snow showers may also be possible late week along with gusty winds up to 35 mph.

MARINE

Northwest winds will continue to diminish through this evening as high pressure builds overhead. Wave heights remain elevated offshore Erie County, PA so extended the Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM this evening. There will be a brief window this evening and overnight of sub-advisory winds and waves before southwesterly winds increase to 15-25 knots early Tuesday as a cold front moves east across the lake. Wave heights will build to 3-6 feet across the central and eastern basin nearshore zones by Tuesday morning. Another set of small craft advisories will be needed for Tuesday. Winds and waves will fall below small craft criteria by late Tuesday night with light and variable flow over the lake anticipated for Wednesday.

Next round of rough conditions on the lake will come Thursday and Friday as northeast winds increase to 20-30 knots as a strong low pressure system crosses south of Lake Erie across the Lower Ohio Valley. Additional marine headlines will be needed for this late week system with a non-zero chance of a brief period of gale force winds possible.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ149.