textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Confidence increasing in precipitation chances returning to the area as early as Sunday night with a less amplified upper ridge into the Great Lakes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure builds across the region this weekend with warming temperatures.

2) Unsettled weather pattern across the Great Lakes may bring periodic shower and thunderstorm chances to the local area next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Aside from an isolated lake enhanced shower or two early this morning, mainly dry conditions expected today through Sunday as high pressure builds across the region. Warming temperatures expected through the weekend although moisture return will be a bit delayed, with humidity ramping up by early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Models have trended towards a less amplified ridge across the Great Lakes Sunday night, with the potential for upstream convection/MCS activity through the Great Lakes impacting far northeast Ohio and northwest PA. The ridge may amplify a bit Monday into Tuesday over the area providing dry conditions, however an active zonal flow regime through the Great Lakes may end up shifting a bit further south impacting the local area. Higher confidence in shower/thunderstorm chances by mid to late week across the area as a cold front settles south into the area and the mid/upper flow becomes northwest.

AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/

There's some patchy fog and lower ceilings across the area this morning that is dropping conditions down to MVFR and to IFR at times. Expect any impacts to be in central Ohio and into Pennsylvania away from the lakeshore. Fog and ceilings should dissipate by mid morning and scattered clouds and VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the period.

Light winds are expected this morning at around 5 knots out of the north-northeast that will increase to 5-10 knots throughout the day. Winds will slowly veer to be out of the east then to the south by the end of the TAF period at around 5 knots.

Outlook...Mainly VFR, but with patchy non-VFR possible in fog/mist early in the mornings on Saturday and Sunday.

MARINE

Northeasterly winds at 5-15 knots will continue across Lake Erie through this evening as high pressure builds eastward across the region. There's a low chance of waterspouts this morning with chances decreasing mid morning. As the high moves off to the east, winds will shift to be out south at 5-10 knots by Saturday morning and persist through Sunday night. Southwesterly winds at 5-15 knots will take hold across the lake to start next week. Waves throughout the weekend into early next week should be on the low end at generally less than 2 feet.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.