textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The forecast largely remains on track and no significant changes were needed with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Shower and thunderstorm chances return tonight through late this week. A few strong storms are possible in Northwest Ohio tonight.

2) Unsettled weather pattern continues into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... The majority of the forecast area should remain dry through this evening ahead of a period of unsettled weather. Low pressure pushing east across Ontario into Quebec will lift a warm front across the forecast area today. After a brief window of cooler conditions, highs will rise into the low/mid 80s for most and the upper 70s for eastern zones. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will approach the region from the west as the low drags a cold front into the eastern Great Lakes tonight. There remains some potential for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm in Northwest Ohio where the SWODY1 Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) remains.Primary hazard will be damaging wind gusts. However, confidence remains fairly low given the disjointed timing of best instability and the arrival of the cold front. In addition to an isolated strong storm, there remains the potential for locally heavy rainfall within these storms across Northwest Ohio. The WPC maintains their Day 1 Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall across Northwest Ohio tonight. Will continue to monitor the locally heavy rainfall potential as recent runs of the HREF and REFS highlight stripe of 6-hour rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 inches in their localized probability-matched mean products.

The cold front will waver across the Ohio Valley Wednesday into Thursday. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be likely through late week. There remains uncertainty on if any storms will reach strong to severe limits mid to late week given the placement of the surface boundary. Despite this, a very warm and moist airmass will be in place with PWATs in the 1.5-2.0 inch range. Any storm will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, particulary in training showers and thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure and dry conditions briefly return Friday into early Saturday before unsettled weather returns. A series of shortwaves aloft will move overhead Saturday into early next week. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue Saturday afternoon into Monday, though forecast confidence decreases Monday onward.

AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/

VFR conditions will continue across the airspace through at least the evening hours. A mix of mid- and high-level clouds will continue across the region in the warm sector today and some diurnal cumulus may also be possible during the afternoon hours. A weakening cold front will approach the area from the northwest this evening into tonight. Some showers and storms will be present ahead of this front. The best chances for TS will be in Northwest Ohio but with the late timing and slowing front, TS is low confidence/PROB30 at best and have maintained some mention at KTOL and KFDY. Elsewhere, scattered showers and some isolated storms will be possible ahead of the cold front and slowly sag southeast across the area but may not reach as far south as KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG, as the front loses its southward momentum. Behind the front, MVFR ceilings will fill in across the area from north to south and continuing into Wednesday. Winds will be generally southerly today with some afternoon wind gusts of 20 to 25 kts. With the frontal passage, winds will shift to the west then north.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible at times in scattered showers/storms Wednesday through Thursday night.

MARINE

Offshore flow between 15-20 knots continue today before turning southwesterly ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds shift northerly and decrease to 10-15 knots behind the cold front by Wednesday morning. Northerly to northeasterly winds will continue though late week as the cold front wavers across the Ohio Valley region Wednesday into Thursday. No marine headlines are expected through the end of the week.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.