textproduct: Cleveland

SYNOPSIS

High pressure continues through early next week. Strong cold front late Wednesday night into Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Upper trough axis dropping in from the north this early morning will close off over the mid Atlantic this afternoon and tonight. The forecast remains dry for the region despite the proximity of the low pressure system to the east, and very little effects in terms of cloud cover are expected. Biggest influence will be the temperatures on the cooler side continue with slight airmass modification due to insolation. Low to mid 70s today, not as cool tonight but still in the upper 40s to lower 50s away from the immediate lakeshore, and mid to upper 70s Monday.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Upper level trough axis traverses the Mississippi Valley and heads into the Ohio Valley for Wednesday, ahead of a potent cold front cutting through the northern plains and in the Great Lakes. POPs return to the forecast in the short term after a hiatus for Wednesday with the upper trough axis. Low QPF on the front end of this activity while temperatures remain near to slightly below normal for both Tuesday and Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Very deep closed low aloft will drop quickly from the Canadian prairies in the northern Great Lakes bringing 500mb heights Wednesday night through Thursday night 3-4 standard deviations below normal just to the west of the CWA. An associated surface low pressure system will strengthen accordingly and send a cold front through the are late Wednesday night into Thursday. Expecting a line of anafrontal convection immediately following the Wednesday/Wednesday night precipitation chances from the aforementioned southern upper trough. 850mb temperatures will fall back into the single digits. As the system occludes over northern Ontario without any additional southern progression, the coolest air will remain well north of the CWA. Back into the 60s for Thursday and Friday as this preview of fall continues.

AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/

VFR conditions will continue throughout the TAF period at all terminals as high pressure builds across the region. Winds will continue to be light and variable and then turn predominantly out of the northeast throughout the day at 5-10 knots. KCLE and KERI and areas along the lake shore may see stronger winds, but still expect to be less than 15 knots.

Outlook...VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday. On Wednesday, isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are possible.

MARINE

Conditions over Lake Erie will remain quiet as high pressure continues through early next week. Winds will be out of the east to northeast at less than 10 knots with waves at 2 feet or less through Tuesday. By Wednesday, a cold front will be approaching from the west and winds will shift to be southerly and increase to 15-25 knots by Thursday morning. The front will pass during the day Thursday with winds and waves diminishing behind. Headlines on Lake Erie will likely be needed during this time period.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.