textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast remains on track with no major changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Second round of rain showers with lake-enhancement this afternoon.

2) Lake effect rain and rain/snow mix expected early Friday morning through early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Surface low pressure begins to exit out to the east this afternoon, moving into the New England region. There will be cold air advecting in behind the low that will steadily keep temperatures down in the mid to upper 40s throughout the day. This will help with some lake enhanced rain showers that will mainly impact the western portion of the CWA this afternoon as winds will be out of north-northeast. Generally expecting around 0.20-0.40" of QPF for areas west of the I- 71 corridor with the highest amounts centered around Huron/Lorain/Medina/Richland/Ashland Counties. There will still be some residual precipitation across Northeastern Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania this afternoon into the evening, though overall accumulation should be lower than to the west. As temperatures begin to drop further after sunset, there could be some rain/snow mix across the higher elevations of Northwestern Pennsylvania. Not anticipating any accumulation during this time period as the ground temperatures will still be above freezing given the warm stretch we've had over the past few weeks. Winds will begin backing to be more out of the north by late tonight early Friday morning creating a lull in the precipitation during that time.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Late this evening into early Friday morning a shortwave will drop down through the Great Lakes rotating around the upper level low that will bring reinforcing cold air into the region. 850mb temperatures will drop down to around -6C and 500mb temperatures down to -25C to -30C by Friday morning. This, on top of the lake temperature being in the mid to upper 50s, will support the development of lake effect showers across much of the region. Flow will shift around to be predominantly out of the north throughout the day Friday behind the shortwave. Lingering precipitation will continue across Northwestern Pennsylvania Friday morning, and with flow at that point still east of north, there will be some connection from the northeast that will help fuel those showers. There will be some rain/snow mix in that area through the morning, especially in the higher elevations of Pennsylvania though most of it will be rain.

As the flow shifts to be out of the north Friday afternoon/evening, a lake effect band will begin to develop across the Highlands region of Northwestern Ohio. Flow will continue to shift to be more west of north by Friday night and the band will shift to cover more of North- central Ohio for the overnight period into Saturday. Temperatures will begin to drop as well with the cooler air moving in with lows down into the upper 20s to low 30s. Though, with the marine layer staying warmer due to the warm lake, areas near the lake shore should stay well above freezing through the period. With that, expecting that area to stay with rain with precipitation falls. The line from rain to a rain/snow mix will begin around the higher elevations of Northern Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania, in the typical snow belt regions. The axis will continue to shift to the east as flow shifts to be northwesterly into Saturday. QPF wise, from Friday evening onwards, expecting the highest levels to be across the snow belt areas, generally around 0.25-0.50" inches. This will be supported by a connection with Lake Huron at this point with the shift in the flow. Additionally, with temperatures lower Friday night into Saturday, this will transition parts of the region to more snow than rain fall. Though, with the warmer ground not expecting much accumulation, generally less than inch. A few places across Northwestern Pennsylvania could see a couple of inches. The majority of the area will see a fairly wet, sloppy snow during this event.

Lake effect showers will continue across Northeastern Ohio and Northwestern Pennsylvania Saturday into Sunday. An upper level ridge will begin to build into the region late Saturday that will shift the flow to be more northwesterly through Saturday night. This will create a multiple band set up for that region. Drier air will begin to move in as well with the ridge building in that will assist in limiting moisture and QPF overall across the area where precipitation is continuing. There maybe another burst of moisture Sunday during the day as another shortwave moves through the Western New York and Pennsylvania region that could bring a quick hit to the northeastern parts of the CWA. This will move out by Sunday afternoon and precipitation will begin to diminish. Some lingering precipitation is possible across Northwest Pennsylvania but little to no accumulation is expected.

Any precipitation is expected to end by early Monday morning as the ridge and surface high pressure builds over the region. Dry weather is expected afterwards with seasonable temperatures for the beginning of the week.

AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/

Rain showers continue primarily along and east of I-71 this afternoon. A mix of VFR to MVFR ceilings continue with the expectation of ceilings reducing to MVFR over the next few hours as rain showers spread westward as a trough moves south across the region. Behind the trough, showers will become more lake effect in nature with some wet snow possibly mixing in during the overnight timeframe.

Winds will generally vary between northwest to northeast through the TAF period. Sustained wind speeds of 10-15 knots will be common with periods of isolated gusts to 20-25 knots possible, primarily closer to Lake Erie.

Outlook...Non-VFR will linger across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through the weekend. Some wet snow showers may also be possible tonight through Saturday night.

MARINE

Elevated flow will be expected through at least Saturday with a low pressure system departing to the east and strong push of colder air into the region. Winds will start out of the northeast at 20 to 30 kts as a low pressure system slowly moves through the Mid-Atlantic states tonight. A cold front behind the system will swing across the lake and allow for winds to become more northerly late tonight into Friday with winds settling into the 15 to 20 kt range. A trough will remain over the lake through Saturday and allow for northwest flow in the 15 to 25 kt range. Resultant waves will build back over 4 ft and current Small Craft Advisories could be extended into the weekend. High pressure will enter Saturday night into Sunday and start to allow for winds to relax over the lake to below 15 kts, ending any headline need. This system will pass over the lake on Monday, allowing for westerly flow. Southerly flow will be favored on Tuesday, as the system departs to the east.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for LEZ142-143-148- 149. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for LEZ144>147.