textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast as it remains on track.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures continue through Sunday. Rain chances return Sunday into Monday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Mainly dry conditions are expected to continue through the remainder of the week and beginning of the weekend. High pressure over the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes will exit to the east as a cold front swings southeast across the region Wednesday evening. Most of the forecast area will remain dry with the frontal passage outside of low-end PoPs in lake enhanced rain showers across Northwest Pennsylvania Wednesday night.

Another area of high pressure builds overhead behind the cold front which will continue the prolonged dry conditions through early Sunday. By Sunday, a disturbance originating from the Gulf will move north towards the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys bringing increased tropical moisture to the region. If the forecasted track persists, widespread rainfall is expected Sunday into Monday. Will continue to monitor forecast trends with this disturbance in the coming days.

High temperature through the period will generally remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Slightly warmer highs possible Wednesday and Saturday in the mid 70s as a warm front will lift across the region both days.

AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/

VFR will prevail through the TAF cycle as high pressure drifts into the Mid Atlantic region. This will allow a warm front to lift across the area tonight followed by an approaching cold front by Wednesday afternoon, but only scattered high to mid- level clouds are expected with the cold front. The main impact will be increasing winds. Light S to SW winds areawide this afternoon will allow a lake breeze to impact KCLE and KERI at times before S to SW winds increase to 5-10 knots tonight and 10-15 knots by Wednesday morning while becoming SW. The SW winds will gust to 20-25 knots at times late Wednesday morning through the afternoon.

Outlook...Overall VFR conditions are expected most of this week.

MARINE

Quiet marine conditions under high pressure will come to an end tonight as southwesterly winds increase to 15-25 knots ahead of a cold front. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued from The Islands to Willowick through Wednesday afternoon and from Willowick to Ripley NY through Wednesday night. Elevated southwesterly winds persist through Wednesday evening before winds shift west-northwesterly and decrease to 10-15 knots by late Wednesday. Choppy conditions may continue into early Thursday morning across the central basin with wave heights of 2-4 feet possible before wave heights subside by Thursday afternoon. Onshore flow 10-15 knots continues through Friday afternoon before winds shift southerly and remain offshore at 10-15 knots through the weekend.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ144>146. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ147>149.