textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

There is increasing confidence in isolated strong to severe storms developing along and east of I77 this afternoon. Primary concern remains strong, gusty winds, although an embedded spin up tornado is possible.

KEY MESSAGES

1) SPC has issued a Day 1 Slight Risk for portions of the Mahoning Valley and a Marginal Risk as far west as the I77 corridor given the increasing potential for severe weather this afternoon. There remains some uncertainty regarding how showers this morning will impact future convection.

2) An active pattern will bring additional chances of precipitation this week with increasing confidence in a potent low impacting the area late Wednesday into Thursday. Some strong to severe storms are possible, especially Wednesday night into Thursday.

3) Cooler temperatures expected to persist this week into next week.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Cooler temperatures arrive today and are expected to stick around as a dominant ridging pattern develops over the western US. Highs today will only climb into the mid to upper 70s before overnight lows fall into the 50s for much of the area. In portions of NW PA, overnight lows may fall into the mid to upper 40s, which is well below average for this time of year. These unseasonably cool temperatures are expected to stick around with the CPC 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day Outlooks both suggesting below average temperatures into the end of June.

AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/

Widely scattered showers will lift northeast into the area this morning, but the best chance of precipitation will arrive with a cold front this afternoon into early this evening. Showers/thunderstorms (in addition to MVFR ceilings and possibly IFR or lower visibilites) will arrive at KTOL at around 17Z this afternoon before pushing southeast to KCAK/KYNG by 19-20Z. Storms will be relatively quick-hitting and should exit to the southeast by 22-23Z. Some lingering MVFR ceilings are possible behind the front across NE OH and NW PA through this evening, but ceilings will likely improve to VFR overnight.

Winds will shift to the northwest and increase to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 to 25 knots behind the cold front this afternoon into this evening. Afternoon/early evening storms could produce gusts to 30 to 40 knots with locally higher gusts possible in stronger storms. Winds will diminish a bit after 00Z Monday.

Outlook...Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are forecast Tuesday afternoon through Thursday.

MARINE

Southwest winds to 10 to 15 knots will continue through early this morning. A cold front will move east across the lake today and winds may very briefly increase to around 20 knots in the far western basin immediately behind the cold front this afternoon, although the strongest winds will likely occur in convection this afternoon. There will also be a very brief period of winds right around 20 knots near and east of the Islands later this evening. Small Craft Advisory-level winds may briefly occur during this time, but would like to see how wind observations and model guidance trend before issuing any headlines. If an advisory is issued, it'd be pretty short- fused.

Relatively light winds with periods of winds to 10 to 15 knots are expected through early week. Hazardous marine conditions are expected as a potent low pressure system moves east across the Great Lakes late Wednesday into Thursday. South/southwest winds will increase to 25 to 30 knots by early Thursday morning with locations in the open waters possibly approaching gale force at times through Thursday afternoon as winds become more westerly. Confidence in Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements is high, but may need to consider gale headlines and a Low Water Advisory as the event draws closer.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.