textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

There are no significant changes to the forecast and general messaging on expectations through this weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A warm front has lifted across the area today with temperatures climbing back into the 60s and 70s. The next round of showers and thunder potential will move in from the west this evening and overnight, with a minimal severe weather risk for NWOH.

2) A frontal boundary will stall out Friday and lift back northward as a warm front late Friday night or early Saturday morning. Additional scattered showers and possible thunder will be around Friday and Friday night, with a minimal severe weather risk for areas south of the Ohio Turnpike.

3) A strong cold front will move across the region Saturday evening. Widespread showers and possible thunder will accompany the cold front late Saturday into overnight with a minimal severe weather risk for most of northern Ohio and NWPA.

4) The weather pattern will shift towards colder temperatures and below average Sunday through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE #1:

A warm front has lifted northward early today and temperatures have climbed into the 60s and 70s this afternoon. As of early afternoon, the warm front was located right along the immediate lakeshore. There is a little delay with the warmer temperatures along the immediate lakeshore due to influence of the cold marine layer. But eventually the push of warm air advection will win the battle for the lakeshore and temperatures will climb later this afternoon. The next storm system to impact the Great Lakes region is tracking through the Cornbelt of the Midwest this afternoon. A surface low will track through the central Great Lakes tonight and drag a trailing cold front into our area late tonight and Friday morning. Scattered showers and possible thunder will move in from west to east during the late evening and overnight hours. The better severe weather setup and thermodynamics for organized convection will remain west of our local area. There is a marginal risk for a couple strong to severe thunderstorms to try to make it into NWOH later this evening, with an isolated damaging wind threat. But overall, we are expecting a weakening line of showers and general thunderstorms to move in from west to east across the area later this evening and overnight.

KEY MESSAGE #2:

The cold front will run out of upper level support to fully move through our area Friday morning. It will eventually stall out across northern or central Ohio on Friday before it lifts back northward as a warm front late Friday night. This boundary will be the focus for additional scattered showers and possible thunder Friday and Friday night. It doesn't appear to be a washout for Friday into the evening but POPs will be between 40 and 60 percent with the higher probabilities along and south of the Highway 30 corridor. There will be a marginal risk for a couple strong to severe storms to develop Friday into Friday night with damaging wind gusts and large hail as the main threat. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible with any training of storms over the same area. Temperatures will be back into the 70s on Friday.

KEY MESSAGE #3:

A stronger upper level trough will move from the central Plains into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Saturday through Sunday. A low pressure system will track across the Great Lakes Saturday and Saturday night with a strong cold front. We may have some lingering scattered showers and isolated thunder with a warm front lifting northward early Saturday morning. There will be a lull in POPs and rain chances during the midday and early afternoon on Saturday. It will be warm and breezy Saturday with high temps topping out in the middle 70s to around 80 degrees. The strong cold front will start to push into NWOH by early evening with band of showers and embedded thunder along and ahead of the boundary. There is a marginal risk for strong to severe storms with the cold front Saturday evening with the main threat being damaging winds and large hail. An isolated tornado threat can't be ruled out as well. The general timing of storm with the cold front will be between 5 pm and 12 am from west to east Saturday evening. Once again, locally heavy rainfall could be possible and a minor flood threat.

KEY MESSAGE #4:

A big shift in the weather pattern will occur this weekend as an upper level trough will develop over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Sunday through the middle of next week. The first cold front will move through Saturday night with the initial drop in temperatures for Sunday. High temps will only be in the 40s Sunday and Monday. Another secondary cold front will sweep across the Great Lakes Monday evening with a reinforcing shot of colder weather. There will be a couple chances for scattered, light lake effect rain and or snow showers Sunday night through Tuesday which will mainly impact the Snowbelt region of NEOH/NWPA. Below average temps are expected through Tuesday night before temperatures moderate by mid-week.

AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/

Terminals that lose gusts tonight will be subject to LLWS in the warm air advection, but this will not occur at every location. In northwest OH, lingering convection possible in -SHRA and VCTS/CB. Also have -SHRA chances late tonight, and then developing again Friday with the approach of the weak frontal boundary that keeps lurking in the region, but expect a cumulus field for much of the forecast period in this warm sector scenario. Winds southerly will turn southwesterly and gust 20-30kts Friday. Brief restrictions should be expected in -SHRA/-TSRA.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday night. Non-VFR more likely on Saturday in showers and thunderstorms along a cold front. Low ceilings may linger through Sunday. Non- VFR may return on Monday in rain and/or snow showers.

MARINE

Elevated south to southwest winds of near 20 knots will return across the lake tonight, though given the overnight timing and the brief period of the stronger winds, opted against a Small Craft Advisory at this time. Winds will briefly shift towards the west on Friday, 10 to 15 knots, as a warm front settles just south of the lake. The next concern for hazardous marine conditions will be on Sunday as a cold front ushers in west winds of 20 knots across Lake Erie. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed. West winds will persist across Lake Erie on Monday, though diminishing slightly into the 10 to 15 knots range. Stronger west to northwest winds of around 20 knots may arrive Monday night into Tuesday.

Showers and thunderstorms are also likely Saturday afternoon and evening across Lake Erie ahead of a cold front which could pose a strong wind threat.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.