textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Severe thunderstorms remain a concern for today with damaging winds as the main threat. Our wind gust forecast continues to trend upward for Friday's strong clipper-type low pressure system.

KEY MESSAGES

1.) Severe thunderstorms are possible today including the threat for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding possible.

2.) Big temperature swings and periods of unsettled weather expected late week through early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE #1: The severe weather potential for later today is somewhat uncertain and depends on what happens with this morning's convection that is moving into northwest Ohio. Almost the entire area remains in a slight risk for severe storms for today. There is a weakening MCS moving into NWOH and the Toledo area this early morning. There is a frontal boundary that has barely slipped southward into NWOH as well. South of this front, temperatures are in the 60s and north of this front temps in the 40s.

Over the next few hours and through sunrise, the potential for an isolated strong to severe storm will be mainly confined to NWOH. The forecast is a little more murky on how the convection will evolve later in the day. We kinda like the solution from the latest 3km NAM. Scattered showers and storms will develop later this morning across much of northern Ohio and track eastward into NWPA by midday. A broken line of convection will develop by midday or early afternoon over NWOH with the actual cold front pushing through. This line of convection will continuing to track eastward across the area during the afternoon. The best potential for severe weather looks to be east of I-75 and south of the Ohio Turnpike later today. Damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph will be the main threat followed by an isolated tornado or two threat. Some large hail may be possible. Any kinks or surges in the line of convection will favor a damaging wind threat and a QLCS tornado threat as well. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding may be possible. The front will clear through the area by early evening with rain tapering off from west to east.

KEY MESSAGE #2: It will turn colder on Thursday. The next system will be a strong clipper-type low pressure that will track through the Great Lakes on Friday. Some brief light rain showers may be possible with the system on Friday. Temperatures will be milder in the 50s. The bigger weather impact from the system on Friday will be with the wind. Southwest to westerly winds will increase 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph very possible. The wind gusts have trends upward for Friday and will be monitoring for a potential wind advisory needed for most of the area.

The weather will be quiet on Saturday before a bigger weather system impacts the region Sunday through Monday. A deep upper level trough will develop over the region Sunday into Monday. A strong low pressure system will track from the Midwest into the southern/eastern Great Lakes late Sunday into Sunday night. A trailing strong cold front will move through the area Sunday evening. Temperatures will warm up into the 60s Sunday afternoon ahead of this strong storm system. Rain showers will be likely with the frontal passage late Sunday. Temperatures will crash behind the front into the mid 20s to around 30 Sunday night. Rain will change over to snow Sunday night from west to east. The system light snow will transition to lake effect snow showers favoring both the primary and secondary Snowbelt Monday through early Tuesday. Some accumulations are possible. It will be much colder early next week.

AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

Mixed-bag of MVFR and IFR across the TAF sites this morning, associated with both low ceilings and vsbys from showers and thunderstorms. Main concern over the next several hours will be monitoring a cluster of intensifying thunderstorms across southern Indiana which could impact all TAF sites except TOL. Currently have brief tsra tempo groups with gusts up to 35 knots, though if trends continue, peak gusts could be higher in the 40 to 45-knot range in some spots. Otherwise, confidence is increasing that afternoon thunderstorm redevelopment should be south and southeast of the area, so have removed any additional tsra mention. However, could still see low-end MVFR or pockets of IFR vsbys in moderate to heavier bursts of rain along or ahead of the cold front later this afternoon and evening.

Winds are generally out of the south to southwest this morning, 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Winds will increase through this morning and afternoon, 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Winds will abruptly shift towards the west to northwest behind the cold front this evening, 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered rain/snow showers on Friday. Gusty west to southwest winds of at least 35 to 40 knots are expected on Friday. Non-VFR likely to return in rain/snow showers Saturday night into Sunday.

MARINE

Small Craft Advisories have been issued across Lake Erie as south to southwest winds increase ahead of a cold front to 20 to 25 knots this afternoon, then shift towards the west to northwest behind the front later this evening and overnight, 20 to 25 knots. Winds will gradually diminish to 15 knots or less by Thursday afternoon. The next period of concern is on Friday as a potent low pressure system moves east through the Great Lakes. Confidence is increasing for Gale conditions across Lake Erie and a Watch may be needed in the next couple of forecast cycles. If Gale conditions do develop, the west to southwest flow would likely necessitate the need for Low Water Advisories across the western basin of the lake.

The final period of concern is towards the end of the weekend late Sunday into Monday as another low pressure system tracks east through the Great Lakes, extending a strong cold front through the area. West winds continue to trend stronger with this system, with high confidence for at least Small Craft conditions to develop across Lake Erie.

CLIMATE

Daily high temperatures are forecast to approach records March 11th. Here are the record warm high temperatures at area climate sites for March 11th.

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 03-11 76(1990) 72(1990) 73(1977) 72(1977) 70(1977) 72(2021)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ142>144. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EDT Thursday for LEZ145>149.