textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased the coverage but not the magnitude of POPs tonight slightly in the isentropic lift light rain.

KEY MESSAGES

1) After some isentropic lift rain/shower activity tonight and Monday night, a strong cold front comes through early Tuesday night.

2) Unsettled/wet conditions dominate the forecast after Wednesday as frontal boundaries and low pressure returns for the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A defined area of isentropic lift will move through the CWA tonight, continuing with the POPs from the previous forecast. Likely a brief break into the middle part of the day Tuesday, and then more isentropic lift becoming more defined heading into the evening hours. POPs on the increase as this forcing moves northeastward, putting the bulk of the activity mainly north of the CWA tonight with the exception of the northeastern CWA zones. With the Tuesday evening/Tuesday night cold front, likely to be another high shear environment for the convective potential with at least elevated CAPE in play. As mentioned yesterday, still have time for some of those more specific details and the severe potential, with only a Marginal Risk on day 3 for the northern portion of the CWA. Downpours working their way into the fold as well in high precipitation efficiency vertical profiles and PWAT values more mid to late Spring-like in the 1.25-1.50 inch range. Sharply cooler once again behind the cold front for Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Cold front will push down into the Ohio Valley Wednesday, but cyclogenesis to the southwest will bring it back north as a warm front Wednesday night and Thursday, then likely draped over the CWA as a stationary front through early Friday. The long and short of it is that an unsettled wet pattern will occupy much of the forecast beyond Wednesday with off and on rain through the period. With no vegetation out yet and in continued high PWAT setups, will need to watch the overall accumulation of rainfall through the period for high stream/creek/river levels and ponding of water, especially after the Tuesday night weather. Much of this will depend on the frequency of the rain, and also the duration of the breaks in between. Not expecting widespread issues at this moment in the forecast, however. Temperatures after Wednesday will trend above normal again into the next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/

Conditions are starting off VFR this evening with a broken mid level cloud deck and southwest winds of 5-10 knots tonight. Moisture increases with a low level jet overnight and there is potential for a few sprinkles or showers at MFD or CAK but chances are below 40 percent and expected to be light. We do have a window of low level wind sheer in the forecast with inversion heights around 1500 and winds increasing to 35-40 knots at that level between 07-14Z. Surface winds become breezy with gusts to 22 knots on Monday between 15-22Z. Ceilings will gradually lower through the day on Monday with MVFR developing during the afternoon to early evening. An expansion of showers is also expected Monday afternoon into the evening and have included light rain showers at MFD/CLE/CAK/YNG/ERI. A few moderate showers or a rumble of thunder is also possible but think better chances for thunderstorms will be beyond the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in showers or isolated thunderstorms late Monday through early Tuesday. Additional non-VFR likely in more widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday with periods of non-VFR conditions continuing in occasional showers through Friday.

MARINE

South to southwest winds 15 knots or less will continue through Monday and there may be a period where winds increase slightly late tonight into early Monday. Southwest winds will increase to around 15 to 20 knots Monday night through Tuesday night, although a few spots (highest confidence in the open waters of the lake) will likely reach 20 to 25 knots. Small Craft Advisories will most likely be needed for portions of the lake during this time and the hazardous conditions may continue as winds gradually diminish and become northwest behind a cold front late Tuesday into early Wednesday. A brief lull in headlines is likely midday Wednesday through Wednesday evening before winds once again increase Thursday through Friday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.