textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the previous forecast, with generally an additional 1 to 4 inches of snow expected through tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lake enhanced snow will continue through tonight across the snowbelt, with the greatest travel impacts expected generally south of the I-90 corridor. Single digit wind chills will briefly return tonight into Tuesday morning.

2) A clipper system will bring another round of snow across the region Tuesday night into Wednesday, with the highest amounts found across Northwest Pennsylvania.

3) Another low pressure system will move east through the Ohio Valley on Thursday which could bring another round of snow across the area, though confidence in the track remains uncertain.

4) A brief warm-up is expected by Friday and Saturday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Lake enhanced snow, moderate to heavy at times, continues across the snowbelt this afternoon, aided by mid-level synoptic moisture stemming from the Nor'Easter off of New England. The latest ALPW imagery suggests the low and mid-level moisture support will gradually weaken through this evening as an upper- level ridge begins to build east into the Great Lakes. The most persistent lake enhanced snow continues to be found generally south of the I-90 corridor, in the favored inland upslope areas aided by north to northwest boundary layer flow. Travel impacts remain fairly isolated this afternoon given the high late February sun angle, though conditions may briefly deteriorate later this evening after sunset, particularly across far Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Additional snowfall amounts through tonight will range between 1 and 4 inches.

Mainly single digit wind chills will return across the area tonight into Tuesday morning, with perhaps some isolated sub- zero values found across Northwest Pennsylvania.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A clipper system will sweep southeast through the Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing a brief period of snow across the area. The highest snow totals are expected across Northwest Pennsylvania, most likely ranging between 2 to 4 inches. Elsewhere, marginal surface temperatures and lower confidence in precipitation coverage will likely result in an inch or less of snow. By Wednesday afternoon, temperatures will climb into the upper 30s to perhaps lower 40s near the US-30 corridor as the clipper system briefly lifts a warm front north through the area. However, temperatures will quickly fall back into the 20s or perhaps upper teens Wednesday night as a cold front moves east through the area.

KEY MESSAGE 3... A low pressure system will move east through the Ohio Valley on Thursday, with medium to high confidence on the dominant precipitation type being snow. However, there remains uncertainty on the track and northern extent of precipitation coverage, evident by low probabilities (10 to 30%) for the area to receive at least 2 inches of snow. This system will continue to be monitored over the next couple of days, though the overall trend appears to be a southward shift in the low track.

KEY MESSAGE 4... A split flow upper-level regime will persist across the Central and Eastern CONUS towards the end of the week into the weekend. Surface high pressure in place across the Ohio Valley will lead to mostly sunny skies with slightly above average temperatures in the 40s on Friday to the upper 40s and lower 50s by Saturday. Temperatures will drop back below average into the 30s behind a cold front on Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/

Predominately MVFR conditions are being observed across the area as a surface trough lingers over the region this afternoon. Ceilings generally between 1500-2500ft will persist through tonight with VFR vsbys at terminals not receiving snow. There is a chance of some brief MVFR visibilities with BLSN, however the bulk of diminished visibilities should be isolated to NEOH and NWPA where continued lake effect snow will impact terminals through tonight. In the heaviest band, IFR/LIFR conditions are possible with 3-4SM expected in the lighter bands. Further vsby reduction will also be associated with BLSN at these terminals until the winds weaken later tonight. Tonight, lake effect will gradually end from west to east with all snow showers ending by Tuesday morning. Most terminals should rebound to VFR ceilings by the end of the period with the exception of KERI.

Northwest winds of 12 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 to 30 knots are expected through at least 00Z Tuesday. After 00Z, winds from the northwest will weaken to 8-12 knots with any gusts isolated to the immediate lakeshore area. By mid to late Tuesday morning, winds will have shifted to become southwesterly at 10-12 knots with some gusts up to 20 knots possible across western terminals. These gusts will become more widespread after this period.

Outlook...Non-VFR in snow and low clouds expected Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Non-VFR may return again on Thursday as another system moves through the region.

MARINE

Windy northwest flow as a result of a lingering surface trough will continue to break up the fast ice that had developed, leaving some open water areas across Lake Erie. These northwest winds of 20-25 knots today will gradually weaken to 10-15 knots tonight before a ridge builds over the area and winds shift to southwesterly on Tuesday. Winds will once again strengthen across the lake to 20-25 knots, Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning before a cold front pushes east Wednesday morning, shifting these gusty winds to more westerly. Calmer marine conditions will arrive Wednesday night with west winds of 10-15 knots expected which will persist into Friday.

While much of the lake does remain ice covered and Small Craft Advisories remain suspended, waves in ice free areas may build to 3-6 feet during the strongest periods of wind. In addition, with every wind shift will come additional movement of ice which may close current shipping lanes or result in ice breaking off of the shoreline.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for OHZ009- 019. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for OHZ010>014- 020-021-089. PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ001-003. Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ002. MARINE...None.