textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Not much has changed with this forecast update. We are still expecting an unsettled and stormy Memorial Day Weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Below average temperatures will linger through today and tonight.

2) Multiple rounds of widespread showers and thunderstorms will impact the holiday weekend. Heavy rainfall with totals of 1-1.5 inches may result in localized flooding.

3) Summer-like temperatures will return by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A cool Canadian high pressure system will build down across the Great Lakes today into tonight from southern Ontario. Sky conditions will remain mostly cloudy to partly cloudy due to high and mid level clouds streaming in from the Lower Ohio Valley. A cool and brisk northeast flow today will keep high temperatures in the lower to middle 60s for most of the area. Overnight low temperatures tonight will drop back down into the middle to upper 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... The beginning of a wet and unsettled weather pattern will start to impact the region later on Friday. A stalled frontal boundary located near the Lower Ohio Valley will start to lift northward as a warm front on Friday. Rain chances in the form of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will increase from south to north Friday afternoon and evening. Likely to definite POPs will overspread the area Friday night. Isolated thunder will be possible but no organized severe convection is expected at this time. High POPs between 80 and 100 percent is expected to continue into Saturday across the area. High POPs will lingering into Saturday evening with a gradual tapering off of rain chances from west to east during the overnight. A surface trough will linger over the region Sunday and Monday with scattered to likely POPs Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. Overall rainfall totals Friday through Monday will average between 1 and 1.5 inches with isolated amounts up to 2 inches possible. This period of heavy rainfall may lead to some isolated localized flooding or elevated water rises on area streams and rivers. Temperatures this weekend into Memorial Day will eventually climb into the 70s to near 80 degrees.

KEY MESSAGE 3... By middle of next week, an upper level ridge will develop over the eastern Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday. High moisture content will linger underneath the ridge with temperatures warming into the lower to middle 80s areawide. Isolated to widely scattered diurnal convection will be possible through the middle of next week given the tropical like airmass.

AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/

A few lingering showers and ceilings in the 3-5k foot range continue towards central OH, mainly south of MFD, early this morning. This lingering activity will continue to gradually exit to the south-southeast early this morning, with VFR conditions and just some mid to high-level clouds then persisting through the TAFs. Winds will remain northeast through the TAF period... light winds early this morning will increase to 10-15kt by this afternoon, with some gusts to 25kt near and southwest of Lake Erie, including at TOL, FDY, CLE and ERI. Winds will slacken this evening, especially away from the lakeshore.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected at times in rain late Friday through Saturday night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms with non- VFR conditions possible again on Sunday and Monday.

MARINE

Rough marine conditions are expected through Saturday, as a tight pressure gradient develops between high pressure sliding to the north and northeast of Lake Erie and low pressure approaching from the west-southwest. The weak low pressure is expected to track over or near the lake Saturday into Saturday night, with a weak cold front crossing the lake Sunday night.

North-northeast winds 15-20kt with waves mainly 2-4 feet this morning will shift out of a more true northeast direction and increase a bit further to 20-25kt this afternoon and evening. Waves will increase to 4-7 feet, especially in the central basin. Winds remain elevated between 15-25kt while gradually veering more east-northeast on Friday, east Friday night, and then more offshore out of the south into Saturday. The largest waves will gradually become focused farther west and offshore later Friday into Saturday. Winds will gradually diminish from west to east Saturday and Saturday night as low pressure moves through with waves gradually subsiding as well. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements are in effect for all of our nearshore waters and adjacent counties beginning 12z/8am this morning, and have been extended in time and expire from east to west Friday evening through Saturday morning as winds shift offshore and diminish. We will need to watch the south- southeast winds for localized enhancement and perhaps a renewed Small Craft Advisory east of Cleveland on Saturday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through Saturday morning for OHZ003-007-009-010. Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through Friday evening for OHZ011-012-089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through Friday evening for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 10 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142>145. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT Friday for LEZ146>149.