textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes as the forecast remains on track.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A stationary boundary lingering across central Ohio will continue to be the focus of scattered thunderstorms today. Heavy rain with these storms will remain the primary concern.

2) High pressure returns tonight, bringing dry weather and above average temperatures to the area through at least midweek.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A stationary boundary extending west-east across central Ohio continues to be the focus for additional convection this afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough pushes southeast towards KY/TN. As diurnal heating continues to increase this afternoon, expected an increase in storm coverage due to an increase in instability. The primary concern with all of these storms is the threat of heavy rain and subsequent flooding concerns. PWAT values of 1.5 to 2 inches across the area couple with deepening warm cloud layers and a flow parallel to the boundary may result in local flash flooding concerns, especially in areas where storms begin to train or in areas impacted multiple times. These storms are also moving rather slow which will prolong the duration of rainfall with rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches possible. Will continue to monitor the convection this afternoon and the potential for flooding. The Weather Prediction Center has issued multiple Mesoscale Precipitation Discussions today highlighting this concern.

This evening, the boundary should become more progressive as it pushes south, allowing for the chances of showers and storms to diminish across northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. Behind the departing front high pressure will build south and mark the end of precipitation chances for a bit.

KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will become establishes over the area late tonight into Sunday, marking the start of a period of dry conditions through at least midweek before a more active pattern returns late this week into the weekend. With this dominant high and associated ridge, temperatures will climb into the 90s by Wednesday with heat indices approaching 100 degrees(F) across western counties. Given multiple days of hot conditions with overnight lows only falling into the upper 60s to low 70s, by Tuesday and Wednesday there is moderate to high heat risk across the area. Elevated heat risks are possible into Thursday although confidence is lower as synoptic flow gains a more northerly component. By Friday, conditions begin to cool a bit and the heat risk diminishes to minor. Will continue to monitor the forecast and trends in moisture in the coming days to determine extent of impact expected with this mid-July push of heat.

AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/

Scattered showers, mainly along and south of US-30, are expected to develop and push south across southern terminals (KFDY/KMFD/KCAK) between 18Z/Sat and 22Z/Sat. Maintained TSRA TEMPOs for those terminals this afternoon and evening. Still can't rule out patchy fog developing overnight tonight at sites where rainfall occurs, but not enough confidence to put in the TAF at this time.

Northeast winds 8-12 knots this afternoon and evening will diminish to 5 knots or less tonight. Northeast winds will again increase to 8-12 knots late Sunday morning.

Outlook...Non-VFR in patchy fog possible early Monday morning. Non-VFR possible on Thursday in showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE

Choppy conditions expected for the remainder of today through Sunday as northeast winds around 15 knots will allow for wave heights to build to 2-4 feet in the central basin. A moderate risk of rip currents remains across the central basin through Sunday evening. Swimming is discouraged.

High pressure builds over the Great Lakes region for next week leading to improving marine conditions. Light and variable winds on Monday become southwest by Tuesday as high pressure exits to the east. Southwest winds 10-15 knots turn west on Wednesday with wave heights building to 2-3 feet in the eastern basin.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.