textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry, but cooler today.

2) Above normal temperatures Sunday through late next week. Unsettled with daily shower and thunderstorm chances Monday onward.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Canadian high pressure builds across the Lower Great Lakes today ushering in dry but cooler weather. Northerly flow across the lake will allow for some lake effect cloud cover this morning before it clears out this afternoon. High temperatures along the lakeshore will struggle to reach 50 degrees with highs south of the lake in the mid to upper 50s. Chilly again tonight with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Slightly cooler across Northwest Pennsylvania with lows in the low to mid 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Surface high will exit to the east Saturday night into Sunday allowing for warm and moist air to advect into the region. This will begin a period of warm but unsettled weather with nearly daily chances for showers and thunderstorms as a series of shortwaves move overhead.

Sunday should largely remain dry, but some light rain showers may clip lakeshore zones as a shortwave moves northeast across the Lower Great Lakes. Another shortwave will move east across the region on Monday bringing increased coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Additional shortwaves will keep at least slight chance to chance PoPs in the forecast through the end of the week. The one timeframe to keep an eye on will be Tuesday night into Wednesday where more organized convection may develop. SPC has clipped Northwest Ohio in their Severe Weather Outlook during this timeframe.

In terms of temperatures, daily afternoon highs will range between the mid 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows in the 60s each night which may near or break record warm overnight low temperatures for a few observation sites in the region, particularly Monday night through Wednesday night.

AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/

Some areas of mixed MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions in lingering low stratus and patchy mist/fog is likely during the first couple of hours of the TAF period, but expect conditions to improve by mid-morning. From there, widespread VFR is expected through 12Z Sunday. Winds will be out of the north/northeast at 10 knots or less through the daytime hours today, although easterly winds are more likely at KTOL/KFDY. Winds will become light and variable at eastern terminals by 00Z tonight and expect a wind shift to the southeast early Sunday morning.

Outlook...Occasional non-VFR conditions are expected in periodic showers and thunderstorms Sunday night through Tuesday.

MARINE

North/northeast winds 10 knots or less are expected on Lake Erie today with light and variable flow developing this evening. Winds become southeasterly at 5 to 10 knots by Sunday morning before shifting to the southwest and increasing to 10 to 20 knots Sunday night into Monday. Winds in the open waters may approach 25 knots Sunday night. Periods of elevated southwest winds to 20 knots are likely through mid-week and Small Craft Advisories may need to be considered if winds/waves trend higher, especially late Sunday into Monday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.