textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant forecast changes were made with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cooler with periods of lake effect rain showers today into tonight.

2) Turning milder into next week with unsettled weather returning late next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... An upper level trough is currently over the eastern Great Lakes this morning. Scattered lake effect rain showers will be around today into this evening, mainly impacting the Snowbelt region of northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. High temperatures will range from the upper 40s to lower 50s. Skies will start to clear from the west to east late tonight into early Sunday morning. Temperatures will drop tonight into the 30s away from the immediate lakeshore.

KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will start to build into the Ohio Valley Sunday and remain through mid week. Mainly dry and milder weather will be expected for the first half of next week. Another upper trough will dig south into the region later in the week. There is the potential for unsettled weather to return at some point later next week and colder weather.

AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/

Widespread MVFR ceilings are observed this morning. Lake enhanced rain showers continue to impact portions of Northeast OH and Northwest PA, particularly at ERI but with some impacts to YNG and CLE too. The rain showers are bringing non-VFR vis, mainly into the MVFR range but with some brief IFR with heavier showers. ERI will be in and out of showers through the first half of tonight, with an ongoing uptick in activity and another potential uptick later this afternoon/evening after a relative lull. For CLE, there may be one more uptick in showers capable of vis restrictions mid-late morning. YNG also stands to see potential for heavier showers with vis reductions later this morning into the early afternoon. A drying trend will gradually bring ceilings up through MVFR and to VFR from west to east this afternoon into tonight...a similar drying trend will also gradually cause the lake enhanced showers to shift east and diminish later today into tonight. Improvement will be slowest across Northeast OH/Northwest PA, with VFR not expected until late tonight or early Sunday at CAK/YNG/ERI.

Northwest winds generally in the 6-12kt range (with some 20-25kt gusts, especially at ERI) will shift southwest tonight while diminishing to under 10kt.

Outlook...Mainly VFR expected. Rain showers with potential for non-VFR are likely across far Northeast OH and Northwest PA Sunday night into Monday.

MARINE

Northwest winds remain elevated at 15-25 knots today. Winds will turn southwesterly 15-25 knots tonight into Sunday. Another cold front will move across the lake Sunday night with northwest winds at 20-25 knots. Wave heights through this weekend will largely range between 4-8 feet, primarily east of The Islands. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all nearshore zones through the weekend, except the western basin which expires at 10 AM Saturday morning. Surface high pressure builds overhead early next week which will allow for winds to decrease below small craft criteria.

There is also a risk of waterspouts today into this evening given the cold air aloft and potential for persistent lake effect showers.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LEZ142>144. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LEZ145>149.