textproduct: Cleveland

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periods of showers and thunderstorms continue through Thursday as a front wavers across the Ohio Valley.

2) Unsettled weather pattern continues into the weekend. Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are possible on Saturday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front will continue to sweep southeast across the region today. Showers and thunderstorms over Lake Erie will eventually move onshore early this morning and sink south across Northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through this morning. The front will stall south of the forecast area this evening with additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms continuing as shortwaves aloft move over the region. There remains some potential for an isolated strong to severe storm along and south of US-30 this afternoon and evening. SPC has placed that portion of the forecast area in the SWODY1 Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for the threat of damaging wind gusts. Hard to flush out specifics regarding timing and placement of additional rounds beyond this evening given discrepancies within the various 00Z CAMs. Maintained at least a chance PoP in the forecast with this update.

Additionally, heavy rainfall remains a threat as showers and storms train over the same locations and with area PWATs rising into the 2.0-2.25 inch range. WPC has included the southern half of the forecast area in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall today. Both the HREF and REFS LPMM/PMM highlight the potential for a locally higher swath of heavy rainfall along the US 30 corridor.

The front will sag south during the day Thursday as Canadian high pressure builds overhead from the north. The forecast is continuing to trend drier Thursday night through Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure exits to the east Saturday as a low moves east across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. The low will lift a warm front northeast across the region Saturday before another cold front sinks southeast Saturday night into Sunday. Main concern for this timeframe will be the heavy rainfall threat. Area PWATs remain high with the potential for 1-3 inches of rainfall across Lower Michigan into Northern Ohio. WPC has maintained a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) across the western half of the forecast area for Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

Some scattered showers with some isolated thunderstorms have entered the airspace early this morning. The bulk of the activity this morning will be a batch of stratiform rain that will move through the terminals. The lone exception will be KERI where some thunderstorms with non-VFR conditions are over Lake Erie and will move into the terminal early this morning. The weakening front will slowly push south across the airspace today. Waves of energy aloft will allow for additional rounds of showers and perhaps some storms today and tonight and have some windows of higher confidence of rain mentioned in the TAFs. The more widespread impact will be MVFR and potentially IFR ceilings filling into the region behind the front tonight. Winds will start southerly across the area with a shift to the north/northwest behind the front as it slowly crosses the area.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible at times in scattered showers/storms through Thursday night. Non-VFR possible with showers and thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday.

MARINE

Flow will oscillate between northerly to northeasterly while remaining between 10-15 knots today through Thursday. Northerly onshore flow increases to 12-18 knots Thursday night into Friday which may briefly lead to choppy conditions across nearshore zones in the central basin. Friday evening into Sunday winds will waver between easterly to northeasterly at 12-18 knots. Wave heights may build to 2-4 feet across the nearshore zones in the eastern basin on Sunday under northwest flow 15-20 knots. Numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the lake now through Thursday and again Saturday into Sunday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.