textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast. Most of the attention is on the forthcoming building heat.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Heat building and dewpoints rising this week.

2) Strong upper ridge will break down towards the end of the week with chances for showers and storms returning Friday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A warm front will track through the region late Monday, but the main feature of note for this heat wave will be the building upper level ridge over the Ohio Valley. Topping out around 597dkm, it will slowly drift towards the mid Atlantic by the end of the week. Midweek temperatures likely to be the hottest during this period, and expect 850mb temperatures to reach the 22-24C range. At the surface, this will translate to mid to upper 90s for the bulk of the CWA for Tuesday through Thursday, and ever so slightly cooler Friday into Saturday. The other component of this forecast to watch will be the dewpoints, which will oscillate in the upper 60s to lowers 70s range. Together, this translates to heat index values in the 100s. Could get a little wind, however, and 8-12kts of southwesterly winds this week could provide slight relief at times. Overnight lows in the 70s will not allow for much recovery, and this could easily turn into a cumulative issue in terms of overall heat for the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Expecting the strong upper level ridge to break down over the weekend, putting the area back into the fringe of the synoptic scale flow aloft. This could allow upper level disturbances back into the region, and potentially the returning chances for convection. Will need to watch how details unfold, and if there can be anything organized that can come through the region, along with any severe potential. Temperatures at least back towards the lower 90s for this period, but still on the hot and humid side.

AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/

Aviation conditions across the region are a mixed bag with VFR to the north and LIFR to the south. The non-VFR conditions over the southern half of the airspace will improve over the next several hours with daytime heating and mixing. Some spotty showers and perhaps a storm could develop this afternoon near KCAK and KYNG. Overall, the confidence in a shower or storm hitting either terminal is very low and have continued to omit from the TAF. Ceilings across the region will lift to VFR by afternoon before scattering out as high pressure builds south into the airspace. Winds will continue to be east to northeast and light at 10 kts or less.

Outlook...VFR.

MARINE

High pressure will continue to build south across the eastern Great Lakes today and support light northeast flow over Lake Erie. This surface high will move east for Monday and allow a warm front to enter the region, which will shift flow to the southeast. For Tuesday through Thursday, the lake will be in the warm sector behind the front with high pressure extending over the lake from the south. Winds will be southwest for the middle of the week averaging 10 kts. No marine headlines are expected at this time.

CLIMATE

Hotter and more humid weather is expected this Monday through Friday. Record warm high temperatures may be challenged. Here are those records for each of our climate stations:

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 06-29 100(1952) 96(1934) 94(2012) 98(1952) 99(1933) 90(2021) 06-30 97(1953) 94(1970) 95(1941) 96(1913) 94(1942) 92(1930) 07-01 98(1931) 98(1931) 95(2002) 97(1931) 96(1931) 94(2018) 07-02 98(2011) 97(1931) 97(1954) 98(1931) 98(1931) 94(1963) 07-03 100(1911) 93(2020) 98(1949) 97(1911) 98(1898) 93(1934)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.