textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Overall forecast expectations are unchanged for this issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Another cold front, showers, and turning cooler through the early part of the weekend.

2) Turning milder once again into next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Pattern turns busier in the wake of the second cold front coming through tonight, and a closed upper low dropping into the southern Great Lakes. Line of showers with the front tonight, then a transition to cold air advection showers with low level flows off of Lake Erie Friday through Saturday night. Showers in the wake of the front will primarily involve the lake effect areas with near surface f-gen occurring downstream of non-zero values of 0-2km CAPE over Lake Erie. Moderate rain showers for short periods of time will not be out of the question as a result. 850mb temperatures below zero will translate to upper 40s away from the lakeshore Saturday and lower 50s along the lakeshore, but still far too warm for any frozen precipitation in the forecast. Upper low and favorable low level flows off the lake will exit Sunday as high pressure builds over the Tennessee Valley.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Upper pattern more zonal through early next week, so this will keep the warming trend on the gradual side without any significant meridional swings to the upper level pattern. Dry weather returns to the fold with 60s back in the forecast for Monday and Tuesday. Looking at another brief and modest cool down into the end of next week.

AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/

VFR across the TAF sites this afternoon with deterioration to MVFR from west to east across the area along and behind a cold front late tonight into Friday morning. Brief, isolated pockets of IFR are expected in low ceilings and rain showers along the front and have this reflected in tempo groups. MVFR ceilings will likely linger across the area into Friday afternoon behind the front.

Winds are generally out of the southwest this afternoon, 10 to 15 knots with periodic gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Winds will shift towards the west to northwest behind a cold front late tonight into Friday morning, 10 to 12 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in lake effect rain showers and low ceilings Friday night through Saturday.

MARINE

Turbulent forecast for Lake Erie. Southwest wind 15-25kts turns northwesterly Friday 15-25kts behind a cold front tonight. Wave heights increase once again 3-6ft Friday through Saturday. Winds return to southwesterly 15-25kts for Saturday night and Sunday with wave heights remaining 3-5ft east of Cleveland. Another cold front Sunday night brings northwest winds back at 10-20kts and waves back to 3-5ft.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ142>145. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ146>149.