textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes as the forecast remains on track.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Patchy fog possible for areas along and east of the I-71 corridor with low end chances for precipitation through Saturday evening.

2) High pressure builds into the region on Sunday with dry weather and above average temperatures likely through next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Showers and thunderstorms will continue to taper off across Western Ohio over the next few hours as the frontal boundary to drifts to the south. With plenty of low level moisture due to the precipitation today and calm winds overnight, there will be potential for patchy fog to develop across the region. Generally, areas along and to the east of the I-71 corridor could see fog this morning with increasing probability further east. Youngstown and sites just across the boarder into Pennsylvania are already seeing visibility drop down to less than half a mile. Will continue to monitor trends over the coming hours to see how widespread fog may develop. By mid morning, any fog should clear out and conditions will improve.

The frontal boundary across the Ohio Valley will have more upper level support this afternoon as a vort max moves west to east through the region. This will bring low end precipitation chances mainly to areas south of US Route 30. Isolated nuisance flooding is possible in some of the stronger storms due to the slow storm motion, but the better probability will be to the south. As the upper level support moves off to the east, precipitation chances will decrease into the evening to be dry by tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A strong upper level ridge will begin to build across Central CONUS on Sunday with surface high pressure building across the Great Lakes. Flow across the region will be fairly weak through Monday, but will shift to be out of the west by Tuesday and temperatures will increase to be above average for the middle of the week. Given the placement of the ridge, there won't be as much moisture being pulled up north, so dew points should stay lower compared to last week limiting elevated heat indices. Regardless, probabilistic heat risk increases into the major category for portion of the region starting Tuesday as heat indices will still climb into the mid 90s. Concurrently, a trough will develop across Eastern Canada and CONUS that will bring west-northwesterly flow across the Eastern Great Lakes. Unlikely to bring any precipitation to the region, it may assist in keeping temperatures down a few degrees across Eastern Ohio into Pennsylvania.

AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/

Areas of fog and IFR (or lower) ceilings are expected through the overnight hours through to about 1-2 hours after sunrise this morning. Visibilities as low as 1/4 SM and ceilings down to 200-300 ft will be possible. Duration and persistence of fog is expected to be greatest at and near KYNG.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon along and south of US-30. Added a tempo TSRA for KMFD and KCAK for this. Convection dissipated by 00Z, with quiet weather tonight. Patchy BR is possible at KYNG, KCAK, and KMFD.

Light and variable winds this morning will become 8-12 knots out of the northeast with sporadic gusts to 20 knots. Slightly stronger winds are expected near the Lake Erie shoreline. Winds gradually diminish to around 5 knots by tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR with patchy fog possible early Monday morning.

MARINE

Northeasterly winds expected today through Sunday. Conditions will be choppy but expected to be just below small craft advisory criteria with 2 to 4 foot waves. Northeast winds decrease tonight then increase again on Sunday afternoon with winds around 15 knots and waves around 2 to 4 feet again.

A moderate risk for rip currents is expected from The Islands eastward to Geneva-on-the Lake after 1 PM today and again Sunday. Swimming is discouraged for both of these periods.

Marine conditions improve Monday as high pressure builds overhead. Winds become southwest Tuesday as high pressure departs to the southeast. Waves generally expected to be less than 1 foot. By Wednesday, winds turn more westerly, with waves potentially increasing to 2-3 feet in the eastern basin.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.