textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Confidence is increasing for another round of severe storms to move west to east through the area late this morning and afternoon. Damaging wind gusts are the primary concern.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Another round of strong to severe storms is possible late this morning into the afternoon. The potential will be displaced slightly further southwest compared to Thursday, largely excluding far NE OH and NW PA.

2) Seasonable and dry weather is expected for much of the holiday weekend. Unsettled weather may return by mid-next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... The latest satellite imagery reveals a potent shortwave moving east through the Upper Midwest, resulting in a robust area of mainly elevated convection just west of Lake Michigan early this morning. Surface observations and the SPC mesoanalysis depict a tight moisture gradient extending roughly NW to SE along the southern flank of this convection from just north of Milwaukee southeastwards towards the Mid-Atlantic Coast. The latest radar imagery and trends suggest that this area of convection may persist and become surface-based as it enters the Lower Great Lakes region and Upper Ohio Valley later this morning and early afternoon.

Damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary concern with this feature, given a strong DCAPE gradient in place across the region and anticipated line storm mode, though some instances of large hail also cannot be ruled out, especially out ahead of the complex. Given this, looking like an earlier time window for the severe weather potential today, roughly between 10 AM and 3 PM as storms generally move east to southeast, with the area of concern encompassing more of Northwest and North-Central Ohio rather than far Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania.

Attention then turns towards later this evening and overnight as another round of nocturnal convection may develop across Michigan and move east to southeast into the area, though quite a bit of uncertainty remains regarding this potential. The latest guidance does suggest that most of this activity would remain elevated, though isolated large hail, gusty winds, and heavy rain cannot be ruled out. The frontal boundary will finally be pushed south through the area on Saturday with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, mainly along and south of US-30. Severe weather is not expected at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will begin to build south across the Great Lakes late Saturday and persist into early next week. The latest trends favor seasonable and mainly dry weather during this timeframe with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and less humidity.

Will then begin watching the next system by mid-next week as another upper-level ridge builds east across the Central and Eastern CONUS, followed by the passage of a strong upper-level trough moving east through the Upper Great Lakes. Shower and thunderstorms chances will increase beginning Wednesday afternoon and evening, with the potential continuing into Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/

Ongoing convection northwest of here in Wisconsin and Michigan moving southeastward has pushed into northern Ohio this morning, and this activity should continue for a few hours with more action upstream. Expect AMDs over the next few hours, but have covered the convection with TEMPOs, and the atmosphere will likely be very different in the wake of storms as we head into the afternoon and evening hours. Another round of showers/storms possible after 00Z Saturday, but the confidence in this right now is on the lower side for the aforementioned reasons. Outside of precipitation and storms, VFR and winds less than 12kts until tonight when low stratus MVFR/IFR sets in.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in rounds of showers/storms through early Saturday.

MARINE

Waves around a foot or less through today, followed by a cold front coming through tonight/early Saturday. Winds then come around to the northeast 10-20kts and wave heights increasing to 2-3ft Saturday through Sunday night in the wake of this cold front. Winds become offshore/southeasterly late Monday through Tuesday night with wave heights subsiding to a foot or less once again.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.