textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast for this issuance. Keeping up with some higher confidence and higher snow amounts in NW PA/NE OH. Quiet into the end of the week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periods of lake effect snow showers likely across portions of the snowbelt region of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania Tuesday night in through early Thursday.

2) High pressure moves in for the end of the week and the beginning of the weekend as temperatures trend towards normal.

KEY MESSAGE 2

High pressure moves back into the region for the end of the week and the first part of the weekend with temperatures that will be trending back towards more normal values for mid February, and this means daytime highs above freezing heading into the weekend. Largely quiet and dry otherwise. Will be watching a southern stream low pressure system passing to the south of the area.

AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/

VFR across the TAF sites early this afternoon with widespread deterioration to MVFR ceilings late this evening and overnight as a cold front moves southeast through the area. Some lake enhanced snow showers may accompany the front, though confidence in placement remains low. Although MVFR vsbys appear more likely, can't rule out brief IFR vsby drops within any heavier snow showers, especially at CLE/CAK/YNG/ERI early Wednesday morning.

Winds are generally out of the south to southwest early this afternoon, 10 to 15 knots with periodic gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Winds will shift towards the west behind a cold front late this evening and overnight and diminish to 10 to 12 knots. West wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots may return late Wednesday morning and afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in low ceilings Wednesday night through Thursday. Non-VFR may return in scattered rain and/or snow showers on Sunday.

MARINE

Lake Erie remains nearly completely ice-covered. Satellite and analysis depict an area of thinner ice extending from east of the Lake Erie Islands to along the northern shoreline. There are also multiple large cracks in the ice across the central basin. South winds increase to 10-15kt this morning ahead of a cold front, shifting west-northwest at 15-20kt this evening and tonight behind the front. West-northwest winds persist at 15-20kt through Wednesday, before gradually weakening Wednesday night and Thursday.

The milder temperatures and offshore flow today increases the risk of ice floes breaking away from the southern shoreline of Lake Erie, noting that satellite imagery has shown some movement and new cracks in the ice over the last couple days over the central basin.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.