textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Monitoring the potential for strong to severe storms with heavy rainfall late Thursday into Thursday evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Light lake enhanced snow showers will gradually diminish tonight as high pressure builds east. Dry and mild conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

2) Active weather returns on Thursday as a strong cold front pushes through the Great Lakes region. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are both possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... An upper level shortwave will exit to the east tonight as a ridge of high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes. Lingering lake enhanced rain/snow showers will diminish through this evening.

Dry and mild conditions develop under the building ridge of high pressure Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will warm through mid- week under southerly return flow. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s on Tuesday will warm into the mid 50s to low 60s by Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A strong cold front will push south across the region late Thursday into Thursday night. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be possible with the frontal passage. Ahead of the front 500+ J/kg of SBCAPE will develop in addition to strong deep-layer shear 50-60 knots. This will likely support strong to severe thunderstorms across a portion of the forecast area. In addition to convective potential, any storms that develop will be capable of producing heavy rainfall as PWAT values rise to 1.00-1.25 inches on Thursday, well above the 90th percentile for late March when compared to soundings from DTX, ILN, and PIT. Will continue to monitor this timeframe for both severe and flooding concerns as the week progresses.

Highs ahead of the cold front on Thursday will warm into the upper 60s to mid 70s. Temperatures plummet behind the cold front with lows Thursday night near freezing. High pressure returns Friday into the weekend where highs Friday in the 40s will warm into the upper 50s/lower 60s by Monday.

AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/

At 18Z, ceilings range from MVFR in NE Ohio and NW Pennsylvania to VFR with bkn-ovc stratocumulus clouds in NW Ohio. Light snow showers have been ongoing at times at eastern terminals. Snow has been a little more steady at ERI but expect to see an uptick in snow showers across Northeast Ohio between 20-23Z as snow showers seen upstream in Michigan cross Lake Erie and reach the local area. Visibilities in snow showers could drop as low as 1 mile at times at CLE/ERI/YNG but are generally not expected to last more than 30 min-1 hour at any terminal. Skies are expected to attempt to scatter out behind this burst in the 02-03Z time frame. ERI will be more on the fringe of the low clouds and could see ceilings hold on a little longer. Otherwise, northwest winds will gust to 22 knots at times this afternoon before transitioning to light and variable overnight. Winds will return out of the southwest on Tuesday with increasing mid and high cloud.

Outlook...Non-VFR are possible with periodic rain and/or snow this Wednesday night through Friday. Thunderstorms are possible Thursday afternoon through evening.

MARINE

North winds to 10 to 20 knots will persist on Lake Erie through this evening before quickly diminishing and becoming northeasterly later tonight. A marginal Small Craft Advisory remains in place from Willowick, OH to Ripley, NY until 10 PM this evening. The highest waves up to 5 feet are expected west of Erie, PA. Winds will be relatively light and variable Tuesday with flow becoming offshore at 10 knots or less late Tuesday through Wednesday. Winds may increase by several knots Wednesday evening through Thursday, although additional Small Craft Advisories are not expected until winds shift to the north and increase to 15 to 25 knots behind a strong cold front late Thursday into Friday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ144>146. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ147>149.