textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

There is increasing potential in patchy fog across eastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania for Wednesday morning. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Potential for patchy, dense fog tomorrow morning. Highest probability will be along and east of the I-71 corridor.

2) Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms likely throughout the week. Temperatures will continue to be above average with highs in the mid to upper 60s for the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A stationary front will be situated to the south of the region across the Ohio River Valley. Temperatures will stay cooler due to being on the north side of the boundary along with the light precipitation across the region and the ample cloud cover. With the precipitation from this morning and afternoon, the low levels will stay fairly saturated. An inversion will also be in place across the region and will allow for patchy fog to form, mainly across eastern Ohio into northwestern Pennsylvania. Fog may last through the mid morning until temperatures begin to rise and the low levels become less saturated.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Light precipitation will continue through this evening, primarily for areas along and south of US 30 due to the wavering stationary front. Most precipitation will end as the front drifts to the south overnight, though a few lingering showers will still be possible in the southern tier of counties. The front will then lift north across the region as a warm front late Wednesday night into early Thursday with widespread precipitation expected. Ahead of the cold front and low pressure system moving through early Friday morning, QPF totals will reach around 0.5-1.0" across much of the region with totals near 1.5" possible for the southern half of the CWA. PW values across the region are currently forecast to be around 1.00-1.20" which sit well above the 90th percentile for early March. Given the region has been well below average on precipitation for the past several months, flooding shouldn't be too much of a concern since the area should be able to handle that amount of precipitation. Though there may be a few brief river/stream responses, generally in the southern counties given the QPF for the area. A few thunderstorms are also possible on Thursday that could bring isolated heavier precipitation.

There will be a brief dry period for most of the day on Friday before another low pressure system enters the region late that evening. Not anticipating as much precipitation with this system as it will be fairly quick moving with the cold front out of the area by late Saturday night. Though, there will be a chance for strong to severe storms ahead of and with the cold front as temperatures will rise into the upper 60s to low 70s generating some instability across the region. Will be a time frame to monitor as the week progresses.

With the temperatures, an upper level ridge will continue to build across the eastern CONUS that will support rising temperatures throughout the week. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s, then jump into the mid 60s for the remainder of the week. The warmest day of the week is looking to be on Saturday with highs possibly reaching into the low 70s.

AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

With a stalled front across the area, low stratus has overtaken the airspace with ceilings below 1000 ft and in most cases, ceilings below 500 ft. Outside of a bit of light rain exiting east this evening that may allow for a quick bounce to IFR for some, there will be no reprieve of these low ceilings tonight and all terminals will be socked in with LIFR. There is increasing confidence in this stratus layer lowering into a bank of dense fog across the region and have most locations with 1/4SM overnight, achieving many airport minimums. Light easterly wind will pick up on the north side of the stalled front on Wednesday and the dense fog should lift and ceilings in the 500-1000 ft range should return by late Wednesday morning.

Outlook...Occasional periods of rain late Wednesday through Saturday will likely bring additional non-VFR conditions.

MARINE

East to northeast winds under 10 knots will continue over Lake Erie through Thursday morning. Winds will increase a bit as a warm front approaches from the south Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening with flow becoming south/southeast on Friday. Southwest winds will develop and increase to 15 to 25 knots Saturday before diminishing towards the end of the weekend. Lake Erie is still mostly ice covered, but above normal temperatures will allow ice coverage to decay over the next several days.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.