textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A front will bring occasional showers and thunderstorms to the region this afternoon. More widespread showers expected Friday as the front sweeps through the region.

2) Above normal temperatures Sunday through midweek with continued shower and thunderstorm chances.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front will approach the region today as low pressure tracks northeast across Quebec. Some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon ahead of the cold front, mainly north of US-30. Some thunderstorms may be capable of producing gusty winds as MUCAPE values are forecast to reach 500-750 J/kg coupled with 25-30 knots of bulk shear. However, not anticipating thunderstorms to reach severe limits. SPC has maintained general thunder across the forecast area for today.

The front and its accompanying showers and thunderstorms will briefly lift north and stall over Lake Erie tonight. Another shortwave aloft will enter the region for Friday which will push the stalled front south through the day Friday. Expect coverage of showers and thunderstorms to increase on Friday. Not anticipating any strong to severe thunderstorms to develop as instability will be minimal. Overall QPF for Friday will be less than 0.50 inches which will curb any threat of flooding.

KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure builds overhead on Saturday behind the frontal passage discussed above. Slightly cooler on Saturday behind the front before a warming trend begins Sunday through midweek. Afternoon highs will rise into the 70s Sunday through Wednesday. In addition to the above average temperatures, this pattern change will usher in numerous chances for showers and thunderstorms and multiple shortwaves aloft eject out of the Plains into the Ohio Valley.

AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/

VFR is anticipated through at least mid to late afternoon Thursday. By that point, a cold front will bring scattered showers and perhaps some embedded thunderstorms into northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania, which will be capable of producing non-VFR conditions. The forecast is trending more optimistic for KFDY/KMFD/KCAK and have opted for a PROB30 or dry forecast for these terminals since latest guidance favors the vast majority of precipitation remaining to the north of these terminals. Can't rule out some gusty winds to 30+ knots in any stronger storms that develop. Showers will likely lift north towards the end of the TAF period. VFR is expected outside of precipitation.

Winds will be out of the south/southwest at 10 to 15 knots with locally higher winds likely at KFDY/KCLE/KERI. Most terminals will not experience gusts tonight, although downsloping at KERI will likely allow gusts to 25 to 35 knots to mix to the surface through tonight. The lack of mixing will result in LLWS as a 40 to 50 knot LLJ expands over the area tonight into Thursday morning. The LLWS will diminish as diurnal mixing allows gusts to 20 to 30 knots to mix to the surface by mid-morning. Winds will diminish to 10 knots or less by no later than 00Z Friday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with periodic rain showers and thunderstorms late Thursday night through Friday evening and again Sunday night through Monday.

MARINE

Offshore winds to 15 to 20 knots are expected this morning with the highest winds expected in the open waters and eastern basin. There may be a brief period this morning where winds in the nearshore zone from Conneaut, OH to Ripley, NY approach or marginally exceed 20 knots, however at this point the duration of Small Craft Advisory conditions is too low to warrant a headline at this point. Will continue to monitor wind speeds/waves and may need to consider issuing a brief advisory for this morning if winds trend higher than currently anticipated. Winds will diminish to 12 knots or less and become west/southwest by early this evening with wind direction becoming more variable as a frontal boundary wavers over or in the vicinity of the lake late tonight through Friday morning. Winds will become northwesterly but remain below 15 knots as the cold front finally moves southeast away from Lake Erie Friday afternoon. Winds will be relatively light and variable over the weekend, although marginal Small Craft Advisories may be needed late Sunday into Monday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.