textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes from the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly seasonable and dry weather is expected through this week. Patchy frost is possible Monday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front will move east through the area later today which may bring a brief window for rain chances this evening and overnight, mainly across far Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Total rainfall amounts are expected to be light with only up to a few hundredths possible. Behind this front, an area of high pressure will build south into the region, ushering in cooler and drier air. Will continue to monitor temperature trends for frost potential Monday night into Tuesday with high pressure directly overhead. However, guidance has remained fairly consistent with low temperature magnitude (upper 30s) which, in conjunction with scattered cloud cover, could limit the overall frost threat. Meanwhile, the frost potential continues to decrease for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as guidance is favoring a faster onset of warm air advection from the west.

Another weak cold front may cross the area by the end of the week, though the latest guidance suggests a mainly dry frontal passage with ample mid-level dry air in place. Gusty southwest winds of 20 to 25 mph are possible ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon.

AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/

VFR. A dry cold front will move through after 21Z west to east. This will primarily impact the winds which will become northwesterly around 10kts. Only ceilings expected are at ERI tonight in BKN060 into Monday.

Outlook...Overall VFR conditions expected into early this week.

MARINE

Rough marine conditions will return across the Central and Eastern basins of Lake Erie tonight into Monday as a cold front ushers in north to northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots. Marine conditions will improve on Tuesday as winds become light and variable with high pressure overhead. A period of stronger offshore south to southwest flow will develop ahead of another cold front on Wednesday, 15 to 25 knots. A Small Craft Advisory is possible, though the higher winds and waves are favored in the open waters. Winds will shift to the west behind the front on Thursday, 10 to 15 knots.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Monday for LEZ144-145. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 PM EDT Monday for LEZ146>149.