textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected on Sunday as a cold front pushes east across the area. Some storms may be severe along and east of I71.

2) A cool down is on the horizon with near normal temperatures returning Sunday and persisting into next week.

3) An active weather pattern sticks around through next week, resulting in the potential for multiple rounds of rain and storms.

KEY MESSAGE 3

An active pattern is expected to continue through much of next week as a broad upper level trough with multiple embedded shortwaves slowly meanders east. This set up will present multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms throughout the week, supported by mid- level energy and increased moisture due to persistent southwest flow east of the trough axis. The first shortwave will push across the area on Tuesday, resulting in showers. On Thursday, a more robust surface low pressure support by a shortwave looks to move into the area, pushing a strong cold front east. On both days there is the potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms and will have to keep an eye on them in future model runs to discern any severe potential associated with them.

AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/

W'erly flow aloft and embedded/subtle disturbances affect our region through 18Z/Sun. At the surface, a high pressure ridge continues to exit E'ward before a cold front begins to sweep SE'ward through our region after ~14Z/Sun and nears a KERI to KCAK to KCMH line by 18Z/Sun. Behind the front, another ridge builds from the northern Great Plains. Ahead of the cold front, our regional surface winds trend SW'erly to WSW'erly, while W'erly to NW'erly winds are expected behind the front. Surface wind speeds are expected to be around 10 to 15 knots through the TAF period. Wind gusts up to 20 to 25 knots are expected at times, especially through ~23Z/Sat and behind the cold front.

Dry weather and VFR are expected for the time being. As the cold front approaches from the northwest, scattered rain showers are expected to overspread northern OH and NW PA generally from the west between ~06Z/Sun and ~13Z/Sun. Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and just ahead of the cold front after ~10Z/Sun. Brief MVFR to IFR are expected with these showers and especially storms. The storms may produce brief/erratic surface wind gusts up to 30 to 50 knots. Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings and scattered rain showers are expected to accompany the upper-reaches of the front for several hours following the surface cold front passage.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with thunderstorms and/or rain showers Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Periodic showers and thunderstorms with non-VFR are forecast this Tuesday afternoon through Thursday.

MARINE

Southwest winds 6 to 12 knots are expected through today with winds increasing by a few knots overnight into early Sunday. A cold front will cross the lake on Sunday, allowing winds to shift to the northwest. A period of winds to 15 to 20 knots is likely in the western basin of Lake Erie Sunday afternoon/evening, but confidence in Small Craft Advisory conditions occurring is low at this point. Headlines may be needed if winds trend a bit higher.

From there, Small Craft Advisories/Beach Hazards Statements may be needed as southwest flow deepens ahead of an approaching strong cold front Wednesday. NBM guidance suggests that winds could reach or exceed 30 knots on Thursday so will need to continue to monitor forecast trends in the upcoming days.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.