textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The forecast remains on track and no major changes were needed with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread rain and breezy winds are expected with a cold front this morning.

2) Dry weather returns this afternoon with unseasonably cool temperatures expected early next week. The first frost of the season is possible in a few spots Monday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A strong cold front will move across the area this morning, allowing widespread rain to spread southeast across the local area early this morning. Rain may be moderate at times and most locations will most likely receive a quarter to a half inch of rainfall by late morning. Flooding is not anticipated given the recent stretch of minimal rainfall. Thunder potential is low given the lack of instability, but the dynamic nature of the cold front poses a slight chances of a few rumbles of thunder across portions of NW OH Winds will be a bit gusty with the frontal passage this morning with periodic gusts to 30 to 35 mph likely along the immediate lakeshore early this morning. Gusts will be lower inland, although it will still be breezy. Rain will quickly exit the area by early to mid afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Canadian high pressure will quickly build southeast across the CWA behind the aforementioned cold front later today and gradually drift east across the region Saturday before exiting to the east by Sunday. A weak cold front will cross the area during the day Sunday, although guidance favors a dry frontal passage. Behind this front, a stronger Canadian high will build over the region, delivering a dry and chillier air mass to the area for the first half of next week. Temperatures will be in the mid-60s on Saturday, but warm air advection ahead of Sunday's cold front will allow late weekend highs to reach the upper 60s and lower 70s. From there, highs on Monday and Tuesday will only reach the low to mid 60s with many spots across interior NW PA possibly staying in the 50s all day. Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s to around 50 degrees each night, however efficient radiational cooling will result in widespread lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s (with locally warmer lows in the upper 40s along the lakeshore). Monday will most likely be the cooler night of two and patchy to areas of frost are possibly across interior locations and especially typical cold spots. Will need to continue to monitor the forecast and would not be surprised if Frost Advisories ended up being issued for Monday night. High temperatures will warm into the upper 60s and lower 70s Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/

The main impactful weather for aviation will be this morning with improving conditions from west to east during the midday and early afternoon. IFR ceilings are expected for several hours this morning with a cold front passing through and associated showers. With the steadier showers, visibility will be reduced between 2sm and 5sm. VFR conditions will return later this afternoon through tonight with fair weather skies and some high level cloudiness. Winds will shift around from the north 5 to 10 knots behind the cold front this morning and continue through tonight.

Outlook...Overall VFR conditions expected this weekend into early next week.

MARINE

A cold front will move southeast across Lake Erie this morning, resulting in a quick wind shift to the north/northwest. Winds from Maumee Bay to Conneaut will reach 20 to 25 knots with gusts as high as 30 knots, causing nearshore waves to build to 3 to 6 feet in nearshore zones. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for this morning. Winds will quickly diminish to 10 to 15 knots for a period this afternoon, but expect north winds to once again (albeit briefly) increase to 15 to 20 knots as Canadian high pressure builds over the region this evening. A second Small Craft Advisory or an extension of the current Small Craft Advisory can't be ruled out. By late tonight, winds will become northeast and diminish to 10 to 15 knots with similar flow continuing through Saturday. The approach of the next cold front will cause winds to shift to the southwest Sunday, although winds will be light. The next chance of marine headlines will be Sunday night as the arrival of yet another Canadian high makes northwest winds increase to 15 to 20 knots through Monday morning.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for LEZ142>148.