textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periodic showers and thunderstorms likely through the end of the week with a chance for a few strong storms Thursday afternoon and evening.

2) Below normal temperatures through Wednesday, with a warming trend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... After a dry period today and Wednesday, a trough will dive south from Central Canada down into the Great Lakes region late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. At the surface, a low pressure will move west to east into the region lifting a warm front north across Ohio and Pennsylvania. Surface winds will shift to be out of the south behind the front increasing temperatures and dew points across the region. Additionally, there will be some isentropic lift with the front that will develop showers and possibly a few thunderstorms early Thursday morning into the mid day. This precipitation will linger throughout the day, though there may be a brief break in the afternoon ahead of the cold front. There will be decent jet support with the front with enough instability from the advecting warm, moist air mass from the south that would support a few strong to severe thunderstorms. The general area would be along and east of I- 71. Though, this will also be dependent on how the morning precipitation shapes up and if there will be enough recovery across the region to be able to support severe weather. The cold front should clear the region to the south and east late Thursday evening ending any severe weather potential.

The cold front will stall to the south across the Ohio River Valley on Friday and waver north to south through Saturday. This will provide periodic showers and a few thunderstorms across the region, mainly south of the US 30 corridor. A supporting shortwave will move through the Ohio River Valley on Friday that will push precipitation further north and bring more moisture into the region. This will be fighting drier air from high pressure situated across the Northern Great Lakes and will most likely limit the northward extent of the precipitation. Upper level ridging begins to build into Eastern CONUS on Saturday and will dry out the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Temperatures over the next couple of days will continue to be below average with the northerly flow across the region. Highs today will be in the 70s and approach the low 80s on Wednesday with overnight lows tonight in the mid to low 50s. Behind the warm front on temperatures will begin a warming trend, though will be slightly muted due to the rainfall and increased cloud cover. Highs will be in the 80s with dew points climbing up into the low to mid 60s with the southerly flow. By Sunday, as high pressure begins to build across the region, temperatures will increase further and continue into early next week. There's fairly good agreement that high temperatures by the start of next week will approach, if not exceed, 90 for much of the region outside of the area around the lakeshore. Additionally, this will bring a more humid air mass as well, and heat indices will be elevated as well.

AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

Expect VFR for the majority of the TAF period, although there will likely be a period of patchy fog at KCAK/KYNG/KFDY and possibly KMFD early Wednesday morning. Guidance isn't very aggressive with reduced visibilities, but forecast soundings suggest that there will be sufficient radiational cooling and low level moisture to support MVFR/IFR visibilities for at least a brief period before diurnal mixing develops after sunrise.

Winds will become light and variable tonight before becoming more southwesterly at around 5 knots at western terminals Wednesday afternoon. A lake breeze will likely produce north winds at KCLE/KERI during the afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday and again on Friday night into Saturday.

MARINE

With the exception of some stronger wind gusts associated with thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening, generally quiet marine conditions are expected into the weekend. Periods of light, onshore flow of around 10 knots will continue through Wednesday night, before briefly becoming south to southwest on Thursday, 10 to 15 knots. Winds will shift back to the north, then northeast behind a cold front on Friday into Saturday, 10 knots or less.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.