textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lake enhanced snow continues across Northwest PA with a Lake Huron connection and have raised the forecast through 7 AM to 1 to 2 inches. Have issued a new Winter Weather Advisory for southern Erie and Crawford Counties in PA from 7 PM tonight to 1 PM Wednesday for 2 to 5 inches of new snow tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lake enhanced snow will taper off early this morning. After a brief break through this afternoon, a clipper system will enter the region and bring additional light snow areawide with several inches of new accumulation expected NW PA.

2) A system will move through the Ohio Valley on Thursday and may bring additional snow to the region. Trends with this system remain south and the heaviest snow may miss the local area.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Light lake enhanced snow continues across the region this morning. With the persistent Lake Huron connection into the region, expect another inch or two of snow to fall through 7 AM, mainly in the hills of NW PA. Trends should be down after daybreak, as clouds are falling apart over Lake Erie and mean low level flow should begin backing across the region.

There will be a brief break in the snow later this morning into the afternoon before a clipper system moves through the Great Lakes region. Snow will begin after dark and bring light accumulations to the entire forecast area. In far NE OH and NW PA, snow will be quick to ramp up tonight with a quick 2-4+" of snow in a brief 4 to 6 hour window. Have gone ahead an issued the new Winter Weather Advisory for southern Erie and Crawford Counties in PA from 7 PM tonight to 1 PM Wednesday. Some lake enhanced snow will linger into Wednesday in PA for some additional light accumulations.

KEY MESSAGE 2... The next system in the sequence is a low pressure system moving through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys on Thursday. This system has continued to trend south, meaning that the precipitation shield on the north side of the system is also trending south. As of this morning, the forecast will have the main snow axis of a couple inches of snow shifting south, mainly along and south of US 30, but several 00z guidance members are suggesting that this axis may go even further south and most of the area may actually miss having any snow with this system.

AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/

Remaining light lake-enhanced snow showers will diminish early in the TAF period with lingering MVFR ceilings likely improving to VFR by early afternoon. A period of VFR conditions is expected this afternoon and early this evening before snow arrives from the northwest after 00Z tonight. Non-VFR conditions are likely in snow and lower clouds with the lowest visibilities anticipated in heavier snowfall rates across NE OH/NW PA. Snow will be relatively short-lived with the majority of precip exiting to the southeast of the local area by 09Z or 10Z Wednesday morning, but expect MVFR ceilings to persist after snow ends.

Winds will be out of the west/southwest at 6 to 12 knots this morning before southwest winds deepen in response to the approaching system this afternoon through tonight. Peak winds of 12 to 18 knots with gusts to 20 to 30 knots are likely late afternoon through 06Z Wednesday with winds slowly diminishing after 06Z. The strongest winds are anticipated from roughly KCLE to KCAK west. There may be a very brief period of LLWS tonight, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this point.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in lingering light snow showers across Northwest Pennsylvania during the day Wednesday. Additional non-VFR possible in light snow as another disturbance crosses the area Thursday.

MARINE

Southwest flow will develop this morning into this afternoon and winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots as a cold front approaches from the west this evening. Winds become a bit more westerly behind the front on Wednesday, but expect wind speeds to remain elevated through Wednesday afternoon. West/northwest winds will relax Wednesday night before becoming more variable as low pressure passes to the south of Lake Erie Thursday into Friday morning. Offshore winds will develop and increase to 15 to 25 knots ahead of a cold front Friday night into early Saturday.

While Small Craft Advisories remain suspended due to extensive ice coverage across the majority of the lake, waves in ice free areas may build to 3 to 6 feet during periods of stronger winds. Any wind shifts and elevated winds will result in movement of lake ice, which could impact shipping lanes.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Wednesday for PAZ002-003. MARINE...None.