textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Overall, the forecast largely remains on track through this afternoon/evening. Heavy rainfall remains possible across the majority of the area into this evening with a low-end severe weather risk mainly along/east of I-71.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and scattered thunderstorms are still expected this afternoon into this evening. Heavy rainfall is likely and isolated strong to severe storms remain possible in the eastern half of the area.

2) After dry weather Monday and Tuesday, shower and storm chances will return for Wednesday through the end of the week. Temperatures will be near normal.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Low pressure will continue to slowly move east across the area through tonight. As of now, the most widespread showers with heavy rainfall rates are over Lake Erie, but showers and thunderstorms will most likely begin to fill in as the upper trough axis moves into a more unstable environment across the eastern half of the area this afternoon. Clearing has allowed MLCAPE values to increase to around 1000 J/kg across portions of NE OH/NW PA and at least 500 J/kg elsewhere along/east of I-71. This will be the area to watch for thunderstorm and heavy rain development this afternoon into this evening. PWAT values are currently around 1.5 to 1.75 inches and dew points are in the upper 70s and lower 70s, which supports potential for torrential rainfall rates. There is also potential for training in locations where mean steering flow is more southerly. The torrential rainfall rates in tandem with training could result in flash flooding. The best chance of heavy rainfall will be where showers are more convective and at this point that appears to be most favorable across portions of NE OH/NW PA. A Flood Watch remains in effect for most western zones until 5 PM and along/east of I-71 until midnight tonight. The heaviest rainfall has ended for Lucas/Wood/Hancock counties so have been able to cancel that portion of the watch.

Given the destabilization in the eastern half of the area and effective bulk shear values of around 35 knots, there is potential for damaging wind gusts in any robust thunderstorms that develop. There is also a low-end tornado risk given the wind field and low LCLs. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather across the eastern half of the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2... The low will exit to the east on Monday, allowing surface high pressure to expand across the area as an upper low settles to the south of the region through Tuesday. Dry weather is expected for the first two days of the week before the upper low lifts north in response to a trough moving east across the Upper Midwest. This will cause shower and thunderstorm chances to return to the area Wednesday into next weekend. Temperatures will generally be around normal next week with highs in the 80s each day and lows in the 60s most nights. Monday night will be the chilliest night of the week with widespread highs in the 50s expected.

AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/

Showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms are expanding east across the area. Heavy rainfall has largely exited the vicinity of KTOL/KFDY, but moderate to heavy rain is possible at all other TAF sites this afternoon into this evening. There's still uncertainty in coverage/placement of thunderstorms and the lowest visibilities so have maintained PROB30 groups for those conditions for the time being. Will likely need to make amendments throughout the afternoon/evening. Outside of showers/storms, non-VFR ceilings will likely spread across the area through this afternoon and evening and persist through the overnight hours. Conditions will most likely improve at western TAF sites this evening, but eastern sites will likely be socked in with clouds before skies begin to clear from the north/northwest Monday morning.

Winds will be variable at around 8 to 12 knots as low pressure moves east across the area this afternoon with northerly flow developing behind the low tonight. Wind speeds will remain around 10 knots through the remainder of the TAF period.

Outlook...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms with potential for non-VFR Wednesday through Friday, primarily during the afternoon hours.

MARINE

Onshore winds around 20 knots will continue in the western and central basins through most of tonight before diminishing below 15 knots during the day Monday. Beach Hazards Statements and Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the lake through late tonight (west of the Islands) and early Monday morning (the Islands to Conneaut OH). Variable winds 10 knots or less are expected Tuesday onwards.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for OHZ003-007. Flood Watch until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for OHZ007>009-018- 019-027-028. Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for OHZ009>012- 089. Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ010>014-020>023- 029>033-036>038-047-089. PA...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ001>003. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for LEZ142-143. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for LEZ144>148.