textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast. Most of the attention is on the forthcoming building heat.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Heat building and dewpoints rising this week.

2) Strong upper ridge will break down towards the end of the week with chances for showers and storms returning Friday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A warm front will track through the region late Monday, but the main feature of note for this heat wave will be the building upper level ridge over the Ohio Valley. Topping out around 597dkm, it will slowly drift towards the mid Atlantic by the end of the week. Midweek temperatures likely to be the hottest during this period, and expect 850mb temperatures to reach the 22-24C range. At the surface, this will translate to mid to upper 90s for the bulk of the CWA for Tuesday through Thursday, and ever so slightly cooler Friday into Saturday. The other component of this forecast to watch will be the dewpoints, which will oscillate in the upper 60s to lowers 70s range. Together, this translates to heat index values in the 100s. Could get a little wind, however, and 8-12kts of southwesterly winds this week could provide slight relief at times. Overnight lows in the 70s will not allow for much recovery, and this could easily turn into a cumulative issue in terms of overall heat for the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Expecting the strong upper level ridge to break down over the weekend, putting the area back into the fringe of the synoptic scale flow aloft. This could allow upper level disturbances back into the region, and potentially the returning chances for convection. Will need to watch how details unfold, and if there can be anything organized that can come through the region, along with any severe potential. Temperatures at least back towards the lower 90s for this period, but still on the hot and humid side.

AVIATION /06Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/

There is a divide with VFR to the north and non-VFR to the south across the airspace early this morning. With moisture trapped close to the surface and some of the mid-level clouds eroding, expecting a mix of fog/mist and low stratus to start developing across portions central Ohio and expand northward through the night. Currently, some MVFR ceilings are present at KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG, but suspect that visibility will start to fall over the next several hours and the low stratus will low to IFR and perhaps LIFR levels. For KTOL, KCLE, and KERI, suspect that the dry northeast flow will prevent some of these lower ceilings and visibility to reach these terminals. High pressure will continue to build into the region and low visibility and ceilings will mix out through the day. All terminals will improve to VFR with light northeast flow. Some pop up showers are possible around KCAK and KYNG this afternoon but confidence is too low to include in a TAF.

Outlook...VFR.

MARINE

High pressure will continue to build south across the eastern Great Lakes today and support light northeast flow over Lake Erie. This surface high will move east for Monday and allow a warm front to enter the region, which will shift flow to the southeast. For Tuesday through Thursday, the lake will be in the warm sector behind the front with high pressure extending over the lake from the south. Winds will be southwest for the middle of the week averaging 10 kts. No marine headlines are expected at this time.

CLIMATE

Hotter and more humid weather is expected this Monday through Friday. Record warm high temperatures may be challenged. Here are those records for each of our climate stations:

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 06-29 100(1952) 96(1934) 94(2012) 98(1952) 99(1933) 90(2021) 06-30 97(1953) 94(1970) 95(1941) 96(1913) 94(1942) 92(1930) 07-01 98(1931) 98(1931) 95(2002) 97(1931) 96(1931) 94(2018) 07-02 98(2011) 97(1931) 97(1954) 98(1931) 98(1931) 94(1963) 07-03 100(1911) 93(2020) 98(1949) 97(1911) 98(1898) 93(1934)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.