textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the previous forecast. Still anticipating a prolonged period of heat and humidity next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periodic rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through Saturday. No significant impacts are expected.

2) There is high confidence for a prolonged period of heat and humidity to arrive across the region beginning on Monday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Starting to see some radar returns arrive northeast into the area this afternoon, though upstream observations reveal much of this activity remains light and generally a few hundredths or less. Mainly light and periodic rain showers and isolated thunder will continue through Saturday as waves of weak isentropic ascent overrun the stationary front just south of the area. There is a low chance for some heavier rain later this evening and overnight near the US-30 corridor as the low- level jet increases to around 20 to 25 knots, though not anticipating any significant impacts.

KEY MESSAGE 2... There continues to be high confidence in a prolonged period of heat and humidity arriving into the area beginning on Monday as a large upper-level ridge develops across the eastern CONUS. Currently, we are anticipating daily highs Monday through Friday in the 90s and can't rule out a few spots briefly hitting 100 across Northwest Ohio at times. Humidity will also be on the rise, with heat indices generally ranging between 100 to 105. Given the prolonged nature of the heat and humidity and minimal nighttime relief with lows in the 70s, heat headlines will be needed across most, if not all areas beginning Monday.

Given the location of the ridge axis and associated subsidence, rain chances through much of the week will remain low. At this time, rain and thunderstorm chances appear more favorable towards the end of the week as some guidance begins to break down the ridge, though confidence remains low.

AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/

Expecting low level clouds to fill in across the south, building northward, through the remainder of the daytime hours today. Ceilings then fall into MVFR with showers also building in from the south after 03Z tonight. Expect low end MVFR ceilings or terminals like MFD, FDY, and YNG to reach IFR ceilings tonight, and possibly MVFR during shower activity at all terminals except TOL/ERI where rain chances are not quite high enough. Slow improvement of ceiling expected after 12Z Saturday. Surface winds less than 12kts.

Outlook...Non-VFR continuing with scattered rain showers on Saturday. Non-VFR possible in fog/mist Sunday morning.

MARINE

Northeast winds 10kts this evening will increase to 10-20kts Saturday and corresponding wave heights to 2-3ft for the western and central basins of Lake Erie, and 1-2ft further east. Winds then ease back to 10kts Sunday and wave heights around 1ft. Winds more light and variable Monday, but could set up for a lake breeze and afternoon chop 1-2ft in the nearshore zones would become possible. Offshore winds Tuesday 10-15kts, mainly southwesterly, and wave heights 2ft or less in the nearshore zones.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.