textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain showers and widespread clouds will gradually exit the area into this evening.

2) Mainly quiet, dry, and seasonable weather is expected into mid-next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... The latest surface observations depict a surface warm front located just south of the US-30 corridor as a cold front moves south across southern Ontario this afternoon. Residual showers and widespread cloudiness resulting from weak isentropic ascent north of the warm front will gradually dissipate and exit the area into this evening as the cold front moves south through the region overnight. Slightly cooler temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s are expected behind the front on Thursday with a modest north breeze of 10 to 15 mph.

KEY MESSAGE 2... The overall pattern favors a relatively quiet and dry period of weather into mid-next week as an Omega block develops across the CONUS. For the most part, our area will generally be located on the western periphery of the upper-level trough. High temperatures will range between 70 and 80, with slightly cooler overnight temperatures in the 40s possible Saturday night into Sunday morning as a cold front moves south across the area. Can't rule out some isolated rain showers beginning early next week, though confidence in coverage is low.

AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/

VFR is expected at all terminals through Thursday afternoon as a cold front drops across the region this afternoon and evening and strong high pressure builds across the Great Lakes in its wake. A few lingering showers could impact KMFD through 20Z this afternoon, but expect slowly improving conditions at KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG through this evening when the current BKN to OVC ceilings of 4 to 6 thousand feet will scatter out.

Light and variable winds this afternoon will become N to NE at about 3 to 5 knots tonight, increasing to 10-15 knots Thursday with some gusts to 20 knots by afternoon.

Outlook...VFR is largely favored from Thursday through Monday.

MARINE

Generally quiet marine conditions are expected through early next week on Lake Erie as strong Canadian high pressure builds across the Great Lakes tonight and Thursday and largely remains in place. Winds will become light NE tonight and increase to 10-20 knots Thursday before turning SW at 5-15 knots Friday. We will need to monitor the Friday night and Saturday period when another push of N to NE winds could approach 15-25 knots. This is the only period over the next 5 days when Small Craft headlines may be needed. Even without headlines, waves will reach 3 feet leading to choppy conditions for Saturday. Winds will turn light Sunday through Monday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.