textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

There is increasing confidence in a window of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with a cold front.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Light snow will move across the area early this morning with no impacts expected. Temperatures will remain below normal through tonight.

2) An unsettled weather pattern is expected next week with above normal temperatures and periodic rain and storm chances. The best window for storms appears to be on Tuesday night. There is also a higher confidence window for rain on Thursday into Thursday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A shortwave is moving through the Great Lakes region early this morning and some snow is featured over Michigan with this feature. Snow will slide southeast with the upper level wave, but the snow is entering a drier atmosphere and only some minor snow showers may make it to the American side of Lake Erie during the pre-dawn hours. Have maintained a slight chance PoP for snow. Behind the shortwave, dry weather is expected with high pressure across the region. Temperatures will remain cool with highs in the 30s and 40s today and 20s and 30s tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Temperatures will ramp up on Sunday and Monday with a pair of warm fronts moving through the region, allowing for 50s on Sunday and 60s/70s on Monday and Tuesday. There is lowering confidence on rain chances on Monday and the first half of Tuesday in the warm sector. Some isentropic lift with the warmer, moist air could pop some showers and storms, especially if the warm front doesn't clear Lake Erie. However, any precipitation would be lower in coverage.

For Tuesday night into Wednesday, a cold front will cross the region and should allow for more widespread shower and thunderstorm development. Therefore, will have a refined window of higher PoPs and thunder chances in the forecast. While early for specifics, there could be some excitement with convection on Tuesday night, if a 50 kt low level jet can be realized into the area ahead of the cold front. Something to stay tuned for...

There should be a reprieve in rain chances on Wednesday behind the cold front with temperatures returning toward normal in the 50s. A low pressure system will move through the Ohio Valley on Thursday and allow for warmer temperatures and another window for widespread rain. There are still some timing differences among model guidance and it is possible that this system slows into Thursday night or even Friday with the rain.

AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/

A trough crossing the region through this morning will bring occasional broken VFR ceilings along with a few flurries or snow showers. Some snow showers may bring brief visibility or ceiling restrictions to MVFR, with VFR generally prevailing otherwise. This trough exits later this morning with high pressure building in this afternoon, allowing for the flurry/snow shower potential to end and clearing out the skies. Generally northwest winds at 5-10kt through this morning shift southwest this afternoon, shifting closer to south tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible starting on Monday with rain showers/thunderstorms.

MARINE

A re-enforcing trough is crossing the lake early this morning, with a brief push of around 15kt winds expected behind it. After a brief lull, winds shift southwest this afternoon and evening and again increase to 10-15kt, perhaps a bit stronger across the eastern basin for a few hours early this evening. Waves will be slightly elevated in the 1 to 3 foot range today. Winds remain south-southwest at 15kt or less through Monday, leading to relatively good marine conditions on the lake. A strong cold front approaches Monday night and Tuesday from the northwest, crossing the lake Tuesday night. South-southwest winds will increase to 15-25kt ahead of the front, flipping northwesterly behind it. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed ahead of and with that cold front. Unsettled marine conditions may quickly return midweek and beyond in an active pattern.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.