textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Winds have trended up along the lakeshore areas of Erie County Pennsylvania tonight into Sunday. Wind gusts up to 40 mph are possible.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periods of moderate to heavy rain and breezy conditions are expected tonight through Sunday associated with the remnants of Isaias. Winds will be highest along the Erie lakeshore where gusts of 35-40 mph are possible.

2) A cold front will move south across the area Tuesday afternoon bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Skies will be mostly cloudy today with a mix of mid and high level clouds. Isaias made landfall last evening as a Hurricane along the Florida Coast near Destin and has since continued to track north while transitioning to a Post-Tropical Cyclone. Rain associated with Isaias will spread north across the local area between 11 PM and 4 AM and will be moderate to heavy at times through Sunday afternoon. Rainfall amounts are still forecast to range from a half inch to an inch and a half although some locally higher amounts of 2 inches or more are possible, mainly across Northeast Ohio. Streamflow values are currently low and we expect to be able to handle most of the rain without many flooding concerns. People should clear drains of leaves and debris to reduce flooding potential. The nearly vertically stacked system will move from Central Tennessee around 06Z tonight to West Virginia by 18Z Sunday. Mid level dry air does wrap north of the low during the late morning and early afternoon giving way to some breaks in precipitation. Depending on the exact track of the system, showers are likely to fill back in, especially across eastern portions of the area with a few thunderstorms possible. Will need to monitor for possible higher rain rates with thunderstorms that could cause localized flooding problems. The bulk of the rain will exit the area to the east by 8 PM Sunday.

In addition to the rain, southeast winds will become breezy Saturday evening as the surface pressure gradient tightens. Strong high pressure will be over New England and the remnants of Isaias will be approaching from the Tennessee Valley. A low level jet of 35-45 knots will move north tonight and could result in stronger wind gusts along the Erie PA shoreline. Winds will be southeasterly which is favorable for enhanced downsloping and gusts of 30-40 mph are possible, mainly before the steady rain begins. Have increased winds in the forecast for late tonight early Sunday morning but are forecast to remain below Advisory criteria. Elsewhere wind gusts should tend to peak around 30 mph.

KEY MESSAGE 2... The remnants of Isaias will be off the New England Coast by Monday morning. Ridging builds overhead, both at the surface and aloft, and breezy southwesterly winds will return on Monday afternoon. Monday will be another dry and warm day with highs in the 70-80 degree range. Low pressure slides east into the Great Lakes Region on Tuesday ahead of a trough that starts to break down the upper ridge. Dewpoints near 60 degrees will allow for some instability to develop ahead of the front with potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms as a cold front pushes south Tuesday afternoon and evening. Highest potential for showers and thunderstorms will be focused generally east of I-71. High temperatures on Wednesday will be nearly 10 degrees cooler than Tuesday. A stronger cold front is expected on Friday, ushering in the coolest air of the season to start next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/

VFR conditions will continue through the majority of the TAF period. Rain showers will begin to move south to north across the region after 05Z tonight. Ceilings should remain VFR until early Sunday morning when heavier rain showers move in. Lower confidence in KTOL and KFDY seeing non-VFR ceilings with rain showers. Winds across the region will continue to be out of the southeast at 120-140 between 5-10 knots. There will be an increase in the winds after 05Z tonight at around 8-12 knots, gusting above 20 knots, continuing through the period.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions in moderate to heavy rain showers expected early Sunday lingering into the evening. Non-VFR possible again on Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE

Southeast winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 knots tonight ahead of the remnants of Isaias. Conditions will be just below Small Craft Advisory and will monitor for possible strengthening. Winds are forecast to decrease as they back to northeast and eventually north behind the departing system.

We have two more windows of enhanced winds this week. The next will be on Tuesday afternoon and night behind a cold front. North winds of 15-20 knots behind the cold front will result in waves of 3 to 5 feet in the nearshore waters on the Central and Eastern basin. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed. Another stronger window of winds occurs behind a cold front Friday night into Saturday. Winds could reach 30 knots and another round of Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed again.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.