textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) has been expanded east into Northwest Ohio for late Monday afternoon/evening. The Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for Tuesday has also been expanded further east into Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures will be well above seasonal averages through early this week. The warmest days will be Monday and Tuesday when highs may approach daily records at a few sites. Cooler temperatures behind a cold front mid to late week.

2) Localized strong to severe storms possible across Northwest Ohio tomorrow. Widespread showers and storms Tuesday into early Wednesday, with severe storms possible Tuesday afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Broad southwesterly to southerly flow will usher in much warmer and more humid conditions for Monday and Tuesday. Highs warm into the upper 80s areawide on Monday and mid 80s by Tuesday. Area dewpoints will peak in the mid-60s each afternoon. We will remain warm overnight in the upper 60s to lower 70s, providing little overnight relief. Temperatures through the first half of May have been below average which will likely lead to this quick hit of heat to feel noticeably warm. Take steps to reduce time in the sun during the warmest part of the day and remain hydrated.

A cold front will swing east across the region Tuesday into Wednesday allowing for a reprieve from above normal temperatures. Cooler Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the 60s before highs reach the 70s Friday into next weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

We'll begin the week mainly dry with some potential for showers and thunderstorms across the west in the afternoon and evening as an upper shortwave moves overhead. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded a small portion of Northwest Ohio to a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms with a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) extending along a line from Marblehead to Carey and points west. This severe threat is driven by the potential for damaging winds and isolated large hail and supported by a narrow corridor of moderate instability (1000-1500 J/kg) given the warm and moist advection. Expect for any convection that moves into the region to decrease in intensity as it pushes east into a less favorable environment Monday night.

More widespread showers and thunderstorms, some severe, will be likely on tuesday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The entire forecast area is either under a Slight or Marginal Risk for severe weather with the delineation occurring along a line from Corry PA to Mount Gilead. Areas west of this line are under a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) and areas east and south of this line under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5). The primary hazards will again be damaging winds and large hail given the instability and stronger low/mid level flow.

AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/

Mainly VFR expected for the TAF period, but with some convective potential. Convection will likely develop to the west this afternoon and spread towards TOL and FDY early this evening before weakening. Have a window of VCTS with a TEMPO for more significant restrictions at TOL and FDY early this evening. Some hints of isolated convection firing near YNG early this evening as well, though with lower confidence, so handled with VCSH. Outside of convective potential, afternoon cumulus will likely produce a SCT sky around 040-050 at times today.

Winds are generally 5-10kt out of the south early this morning. Maintain some low-level wind shear at TOL and FDY with a roughly 40kt low-level jet overhead and a near-surface inversion early this morning. Winds will shift south-southwest and increase to 12-18kt with gusts to around 25kt late this morning into this afternoon. Thunderstorms may produce higher gusts at TOL/FDY.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms at western terminals Monday night. Non-VFR likely at times in showers/thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday. Non-VFR possible in showers on Friday.

MARINE

South winds are slightly elevated at 10-15kt early this morning and will continue today. Gusts up to 25kt are possible in the nearshore waters west of Cleveland this afternoon. Thunderstorms may reach western Lake Erie this evening, and could pack brief wind gusts over 35kt before dissipating while tracking east. Otherwise, southerly winds will remain slightly elevated at 10-15kt tonight into Tuesday. Winds increase a bit further to 15-20kt Tuesday afternoon, with gusts potentially up to 30kt in the nearshore waters west of Cleveland. Small craft headlines remain possible for Tuesday. There is additional thunderstorm potential spreading from west to east Tuesday afternoon and evening along and ahead of a cold front, again with potential for storms over the lake to pack strong wind gusts over 35kt.

Winds whip around to the north late Tuesday night into Wednesday behind the cold front, and gradually shift more northeasterly Wednesday into Thursday and more easterly for Friday. These winds are currently forecast to be around 15kt which would bring choppiness, but there is a chance winds trend up closer to 20kt Thursday into Friday, which could warrant some small craft/beach hazards headlines.

CLIMATE

High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will approach record values. The following are the records for May 18 and 19 at local climate sites.

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 05-18 95(1962) 92(1962) 91(1962) 92(1962) 92(1962) 89(1889) 05-19 92(1996) 88(1964) 88(1998) 91(1911) 89(1934) 90(1996)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.