textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the previous forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night with a marginal risk for severe weather.

2) High pressure will return for the end of the week and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure that is over the region today will push eastward tonight. An upper level trough will move into the Upper Great Lakes region on Wednesday. A cold front will push through the Great Lakes and into the Upper Ohio Valley late Wednesday. Surface dewpoints will climb into the lower 70s by Wednesday afternoon. High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 80s on Wednesday. 0-6km shear will increase to 40 to 45 knots and modest instability will develop of 1000-2000 J/kg ahead of the cold front late Wednesday. There is a marginal risk for severe storms ahead of the cold front with the main threat being isolated damaging wind gusts. PW values will increase to around 2 inches which will support heavy downpours and localized heavy rainfall possible. The time window for possible severe weather will be between 4 pm and 10 pm. The cold front will slow down as it moves into central Ohio Wednesday night. Another weak area of low pressure will ride along the frontal boundary late Wednesday night into Thursday with another round of rain likely, especially for areas south of Highway 30. The front and rain chances will finally clear out of the area by Thursday evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will build in over the Great Lakes and the Upper Ohio Valley Friday and Saturday. High temperatures will be in the middle to upper 70s on Friday and lower to middle 80s by Saturday. A weak cold front will try to move through the Great Lakes region late Sunday but stall out just north of our area. Warm and humid weather will continue into early next week.

AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/

The main message for aviation weather will be VFR conditions for this TAF update. Scattered to broken high level clouds will be in our skies with no impact to aviation. There will be a light lake breeze at ERI and CLE this afternoon. Otherwise, winds will be from the south to southwest 5 to 10 knots through the period. Southwest winds will increase slightly for MFD, CLE, CAK, and ERI late Wednesday morning and midday between 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots possible.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Some storms could contain gusty winds Wednesday afternoon and evening.

MARINE

There will be a brief window for a lake breeze this afternoon with a east-northeast wind 5 to 10 knots and a light chop of waves around a foot. Southerly winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots tonight, becoming west-southwesterly ahead of a cold front on Wednesday 15 to 20 kts. Marine zones offshore of Cleveland and eastward will see wave of 3 to 4 feet. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed for Wednesday. A broken line of storms are expected ahead of the cold front late Wednesday. Winds northwesterly 10 to 15 knots are expected in the wake of the cold front Wednesday night through Thursday night with wave heights 1 to 3 feet. High pressure will build over the lake on Friday with light northeast winds 5 to 10 knots and waves of 1 to 2 feet.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.