textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes from the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Below average temperatures and periodic rain showers will continue through Wednesday.

2) Dry and more seasonable weather will return by the end of the week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... The latest radar and satellite imagery reveal a large area of cloud cover and occasional light rain showers and/or drizzle extending from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic Coast, associated with an elongated surface trough to the north of a stationary front. Initially, periodic light rain and/or drizzle is expected today, generally east of the I-71 corridor further away from the better forcing. However, this surface trough will gradually move west across the Ohio Valley into Wednesday as high pressure begins building south across the Eastern Great Lakes, resulting in more widespread showers overnight into Wednesday afternoon. Confidence is increasing for a few thunderstorms to accompany this activity, especially near the I-71 corridor as the latest guidance indicates a narrow swath of elevated instability > 500 J/kg. The weak forcing in place should limit rainfall amounts to less than an inch, though localized higher amounts, especially in thunderstorms, remain possible. Rain chances will quickly diminish Wednesday evening and overnight as high pressure continues to build south into the area.

Periodic rain showers and cloud cover will contribute to below average daytime temperatures in the 60s or perhaps even upper 50s at times and lows in the 50s or upper 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will build south across the Great Lakes by the end of the week and persist through the weekend. Initially, high pressure and the departing chilly air mass could result in a favorable scenario for some lows in the upper 30s to develop, particularly across inland Northwest Pennsylvania, though 40s should be more common elsewhere. The air mass will gradually moderate through the weekend with high pressure in place. Temperatures will return to the upper 60s to low 70s by Sunday and perhaps even higher into the mid to upper 70s by early next week.

AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/

Low ceilings continue to be the main TAF challenge through Wednesday morning as a surface trough hangs back over the area. Most sites are solidly MVFR early this afternoon, and expect more widespread periods of IFR to develop this afternoon and evening as the next round of light rain and drizzle slowly spreads NW across the region. The bulk of this precip and IFR will be over southern areas (KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG), but IFR could briefly impact other sites too, just too low of a probability to put in those TAFS. A mix of MVFR/IFR cigs and pockets of mist is then expected tonight, with the greatest potential to see reduced vis in mist at KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG. This will eventually be overtaken by yet another wave of showers that will gradually spread north Wednesday morning, and this will cause MVFR/IFR to linger into Wednesday afternoon.

NE winds will continue to average 10-15 knots through Wednesday, with occasional gusts of 20-25 knots.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and occasional thunderstorms through Thursday.

MARINE

Rough marine conditions will continue across Lake Erie through Wednesday with persistent east to northeast winds of 15 to 25 knots and gusts up to 30 knots, resulting in wave heights of 4 to 7 feet. Conditions will remain choppy on Thursday, perhaps even briefly reaching Small Craft criteria, as northeast flow only gradually improves to 15 to 20 knots. Winds will continue to gradually weaken on Friday through the weekend, though will remain out of the north to northeast with the building high pressure to the north, 10 to 15 knots.

Given the lingering surface trough draped across Lake Erie, can't rule out a low chance of waterspouts with any showers that develop into this evening, particularly across the central and western basins of the lake.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for OHZ003- 007-009>012-089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 11 PM EDT this evening for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ142>148. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ149.