textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Some fog will be expected across the area this morning as clouds clear out of the region. There is a bit more confidence in rain chances on Sunday with a cold front entering the region.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A pair of fronts moving through the region on Saturday and Sunday will bring scattered showers and storms. There is some limited potential for a stronger storm on Saturday afternoon and evening.

2) Warm weather is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday with additional shower and storm chances possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A warm front will lift north across the area tonight and allow for warm and humid conditions to return for the weekend. For Saturday, a mid-level shortwave will move through the Ohio Valley and allow for shower and thunderstorm development. With a conditionally unstable air mass, it is possible for a storm to become stronger with gusty winds, hail, and heavy rain during the peak heating hours on Saturday afternoon and evening. For Sunday, there is growing consensus on a cold front approaching and slowly moving south across the forecast area. This front should provide lift to generate at least some convective activity on Sunday. However, the air mass should be less suitable after Saturday's activity and shower/storm coverage should be lower.

KEY MESSAGE 2... The forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday is trending more unsettled as the forecast area will be in the middle ground of a ridge to the south and a trough moving through Canada. The ridge should help keep the area dry on Monday with high pressure moving through the region. However, the ridge will back off a bit for Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing for some of the energy of the upper trough to enter the Great Lakes, coincident with a cold front moving through the region. The air mass ahead of this system will be warm and humid and again conditionally unstable to allow for scattered shower and storm activity next week. Will need to watch this portion of the forecast for trends as it approaches closer.

AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/

Patchy fog across southeastern terminals is expected to dissipate over the next few hours with widespread VFR anticipated. Have put lines in for mid-level BKN/OVC across terminals as cloud cover increases from the southwest. Light and variable winds tonight will shift east- northeast during the daytime today before turning southeast this evening. Winds will remain 10 knots or less through TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers/storms on Saturday, especially during the afternoon and early evening. Non-VFR possible again in scattered showers and storms on Tuesday.

MARINE

High pressure over the Great Lakes region will support north to northeast flow over the lake today. As the system moves east, winds over the lake will shift to the east then southeast tonight as a warm front crosses the lake. Offshore flow will continue through Saturday with the lake in the warm sector of a low pressure system. A cold front will approach and cross the lake on Saturday night into Sunday, allowing for onshore flow to return to the basin. Winds could be briefly strong enough to merit some elevated waves and moderate swimming risk. The front will settle south of the lake on Sunday and elevated northerly flow will persist across the basin through Sunday night keeping waves in the 2 to 4 ft range. The front will lift back north across the lake on Monday and offshore flow will return to the basin on Monday night. This flow could be stronger on Tuesday depending on the track of a low pressure system and cold front through the region. At a minimum, there appears to be some brief windows for moderate swimming risks on the lake through the forecast period. Depending on the strength and timing of the cold front on Sunday and the system on Tuesday, there could be windows for a Small Craft Advisory.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.