textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant chances were made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periods of unsettled weather with showers and thunderstorms possible tonight through Sunday and again late Tuesday into Wednesday.

2) Warmer weather expected Sunday into mid-week with near record highs possible early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... It will remain unsettled across the region tonight through Sunday as a series of shortwaves will move overhead. Ongoing showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to push east across the forecast are through this evening giving way to a brief period of dry weather tonight. Hi- res models are having a fairly difficult time with precipitation chances tomorrow as another shortwave moves overhead. For now, stuck with slight chance to chance PoPs in the forecast Sunday afternoon and early evening to account for any isolated showers/thunderstorms that may develop along a warm front.

Precipitation chances will return late Tuesday through Wednesday as a strong cold front swings east. Some prefrontal showers and storms will be possible during the day on Tuesday with more widespread precipitation chances along the cold front. Expect for temperatures behind the cold front on Wednesday and Thursday to fall roughly 10- 15 degrees.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Broad southwesterly to southerly flow will usher in much warmer conditions to end the weekend and begin early next week. Highs warm into the upper 80s areawide on Monday and mid 80s by Tuesday. Temperatures through the first half of May have been below average which will likely lead to this quick hit of heat to feel noticeably warm. Peak heat index values will range between the upper 80s to lower 90s. Take steps to reduce time in the sun during the warmest part of the day and remain hydrated.

AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/

Shower/storm activity has largely ended for the forecast period. MVFR ceilings expected to linger over at YNG and possibly at CAK. Otherwise, this will be mid/upper level clouds for the most part across the region along with southwesterly winds coming down below 12kts if they are not already there. A frontal boundary will drop down into the southern Great Lakes through the period, but should become stationary just north of Lake Erie into Sunday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in isolated showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening, though chances are lower. Non-VFR likely at times in showers/thunderstorms late Tuesday into Wednesday.

MARINE

Southwest winds to 15 to 20 knots are expected this afternoon with winds diminishing below 15 knots later this evening. Winds will be light and variable for a period during the day Sunday before flow shifts to the southwest on Monday. Periods of elevated winds to 15 to 20 knots are expected during the day Monday and Tuesday with the strongest winds likely in the western basin of the lake. Small Craft Advisories may be needed early in the week, especially if winds trend higher. Winds will shift to the northwest behind a cold front on Wednesday with flow becoming more north/northeast Wednesday night into Thursday. Winds/waves should remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria for most of this time, although there may be a brief period of Small Craft Advisory conditions as onshore winds increase in the western and central basins on Wednesday night.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.