textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast. Warming trend to commence as expected this weekend into early next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warming trend with summer-like conditions early next week.

2) Slightly cooler mid week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Significant upper level pattern change with the exit of the upper level trough that cooled the region down today into the 50s and 60s once again, with 40s over NW PA. Temperatures rebound to near normal Friday in zonal flow aloft, which will become upper level ridging through the weekend into early next week. 850mb temperatures by Monday will have climbed into the upper teens, translating to near 90F in places for the warmest weather of the season so far. A stationary front will drape itself in the vicinity of the CWA Saturday through Sunday with a return for showers and storms, where a marginal threat for severe clips the far western zones for late Saturday. This stationary boundary becomes a warm front Sunday night, assisting in the warm up for early next week that will be characterized by well above normal temperatures. Dewpoints to climb to late spring/summer values in the 65-70F range as convective chances increase Tuesday with the approach of a cold front.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Another upper trough digs into the Great Lakes for the end of the week, dropping temperatures back to normal or slightly below normal for the area, but this will not be a return to the cooler type weather that has plagued the area for the first half of May. Rain chances will continue behind the cold front through Wednesday night before largely coming to an end Thursday and temperatures closer to the 70F mark for Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/

VFR across the TAF sites this evening with VFR to persist through the TAF period. Low-end VFR (4 to 5kft) across the eastern half of the area will gradually exit towards the east and dissipate to skc overnight into early Friday morning. High cirrus streaming in from the west late Friday morning will become thicker and lower to around 10kft, particularly west of I-71 by the afternoon.

Winds are generally out of the north to northwest this evening, 8 to 12 knots. Winds will become light and variable overnight before favoring a south to southwest direction late Friday morning and afternoon, 8 to 10 knots. The exception will be at ERI where a weak lake breeze may result in west to northwest winds of 8 to 10 knots by early Friday afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely in showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. Additional non- VFR possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening, though chances are lower. Non-VFR may return on Tuesday in showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE

Onshore flow 15-20 knots will continue through this evening allowing for wave heights of 3 to 5 feet to remain across the central basin. Have extended the Small Craft Advisory through 4 PM this afternoon. High pressure will build overhead allowing for improving marine conditions for Friday. Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots will return on Saturday and continue through the weekend. There remains the potential for showers and thunderstorms on the lake this weekend.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.