textproduct: Cleveland

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will maintain influence over the region through Monday morning before a warm front lifts across the area Monday night into early Tuesday. A cold front will track east across the region during the day Tuesday, followed by high pressure that will maintain influence through Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Some residual upper-level troughing and marginal low-level moisture over the eastern Great Lakes may produce some isolated and light snow showers across NW PA through this evening, but otherwise expect dry weather across most of the area through mid-morning Monday as a ridge continues to build over the region. Efficient radiational cooling will occur as a result of clear skies and light winds tonight and expect widespread widespread lows in the teens and lower 20s with single digits possible across typical cold spots in interior NE OH and NW PA.

A shortwave will cross the region Monday afternoon and evening as a warm front lifts northeast across the Ohio Valley. An initial round of light snow showers is possible with the shortwave Monday afternoon into the evening with more widespread precipitation moving into the local area as the warm front lifts into the region Monday night. Ptype on the leading edge of the warm frontal precipitation will likely be snow, however there may be a somewhat narrow swath of a wintry mix of rain/snow/freezing rain/sleet across interior NE OH and especially the higher terrain of interior NW PA late Monday night before precip quickly transitions to rain. Any ice accretion should be a light glaze and expect ice to melt as temperatures quickly rise above freezing by daybreak Tuesday morning so impacts should be marginal.

Monday's highs will be in the 30s across most of the area, however lower 40s are likely in southwestern zones. Anticipate overnight lows in the upper 20s and low to mid 30s Monday night with temperatures following a non-diurnal trend as the warm front lifts over the CWA.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

A cold front will move across the region Tuesday, but largely expect a dry frontal passage with PoPs quickly tapering off as a ridge and surface high build in behind the front. The ridge will also prevent a significant air mass change and warming temperatures are anticipated through Christmas Eve. A shortwave will likely crest the ridge on Wednesday night which will deliver high (albeit light) rain chances to the area towards the end of the short term period. High temperatures will generally be in the 40s Tuesday and Wednesday with lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s Tuesday night giving way to lows in the 30s and lower 40s Wednesday night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

The weather pattern becomes a bit more unsettled Christmas Day through the weekend as a series of disturbances cross the region, but impactful weather is not anticipated. The highest PoPs will be across NE OH/NW PA due to possible lake enhancement, however PoPs will likely be refined as confidence in the timing and placement of upper-level features increases. Guidance favors well above normal temperature Christmas Day and Friday with temps possibly moderating closer to normal by the end of the weekend. Highs may touch 60 degrees southeast of a line from roughly Findlay to Mount Vernon Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/

Lake effect clouds with ceilings around 2500 ft continue downwind of Lake Erie in far Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Northwest winds are around 8-12 knots this afternoon with gusts around 15-20 knots. High pressure builds in from the west, becoming centered over the region by tonight. As it builds in, should see skies become clear (which we're already seeing west of I-77), and winds become light and variable overnight.

High pressure departs to the east, with a warm front approaching from the southwest tomorrow afternoon. Mid-levle clouds build in from the west after daybreak with southerly winds developing and increasing to around 5-9 knots by the afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR will be possible with a mix of rain/snow Monday night, transitioning to mostly rain late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Non-VFR will be possible with periods of rain Wednesday night into Thursday.

MARINE

Northwest flow subsided to 10 knots or less this evening as high pressure builds in from the west. Southwest flow develops behind the departing high, possibly exceeding 20 knots at times on Tuesday. Winds become northwest and then weaken as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes region on Wednesday. Winds remain under 20 knots through the rest of the week as a weak low may move across Lake Erie on Friday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ146>149.