textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The forecast remains on track and no major changes were needed with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The next chance of widespread showers and storms will be with a cold front on Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A cold front will move east across the area this morning. Scattered showers are possible this morning with a few thunderstorms possible near the front in southern zones during peak diurnal heating this afternoon. The best instability will be to the south of the CWA so severe weather is not expected.

From there, dry weather is expected tonight through much of Tuesday night. By early Wednesday morning, rain chances will increase ahead of a southeastward-advancing cold front. Showers will progress southeastward across the area Wednesday morning into the afternoon and there may be some convection inland from Lake Erie during the afternoon. Overall, instability seems meager in comparison to recent days and guidance suggests that QPF will be relatively light so the chance of severe weather and heavy rainfall are low at this point. A dry and cooler air mass will arrive behind the front Thursday and Friday with below normal highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s expected.

AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/

Overcast conditions linger through the overnight period with widely variable ceilings ranging from VFR 5,000 ft ceilings to LIFR ceilings as low as 200 ft. Patchy BR/FG is also expected. LIFR is most likely where greatest rain occured yesterday afternoon, including near KYNG and KCAK.

Conditions will gradually improve after sunrise through the rest of the morning hours, giving way to SCT/BKN clouds in the 3,000-5,000 ft range. Clouds will continue to scatter out through the rest of the afternoon/evening with VFR conditions expected.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible on Wednesday with showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE

Winds ahead of a cold front are starting southwest to west around 10 knots. Winds will shift to the northwest behind a cold front overnight with 10 to 15 kts of onshore flow expected. Waves may bump up a bit, but incoming high pressure will quickly taper off the northwest flow to 10 kts or less on Monday and allow for any waves to diminish. High pressure will move south of the lake for Tuesday and light southerly flow will return to the lake. A cold front will approach and cross the lake for Wednesday, bringing a chance for showers and storms and winds shifting from southerly to northwesterly. Cool high pressure will be in place for Thursday and Friday and maintain light north to northeast flow across the basin through the end of the week.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.