textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Overall, very little has changed with the forecast. There's still relatively high confidence in accumulating snowfall towards the end of the week, but confidence in snow accumulations and the resulting impacts is still low.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cold temperatures are expected tonight with minimum temperatures near or below zero degrees and wind chills to 10 degrees below zero or colder expected.

2) Light snow chances return on Monday, which could produce marginal travel impacts.

3) There is increasing potential widespread accumulating snowfall late in the week. Travel impacts are possible, but confidence in snow accumulations and the resulting impacts remains low at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Tonight will be the last night of frigid temperatures (for a few days, at least) as Arctic high pressure slowly drifts away from the region. Temperatures will generally be coldest at typical cold/rural spots in eastern and southern portions of the CWA; lows will likely dip several degrees below zero and will chills will likely be as cold as 10 to 15 degrees below zero, especially if skies end up being completely clear. Elsewhere, lows will be in the single digits to near zero degrees with subzero wind chills. Opted against a Cold Weather Advisory given the potential for lingering cloud cover and an upper ridge axis building into the region, but it may get close in a few spots. Will keep an eye on satellite/sky cover trends through tonight. Either way, the continued cold will likely produce impacts on infrastructure (i.e., frozen pipes) and pose a risk for frostbite and hypothermia if necessary precautions are not taken.

Temperatures will finally "warm" (speaking very relatively here) on Monday as warm air advection develops behind the ridge axis. Highs will be in the 20s for at least the first half of the week with overnight lows in the teens expected Tuesday. Single digit lows will likely return for the middle of the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Chances of light snow showers will return to the region as a shortwave and weak warm front move east across the local area Monday. Have widespread slight chance to low end chance (20 to about 30 percent) PoPs across the entire local area, although coverage may be quite scattered. Any snow accumulations will be minor (below an inch), but similar to recent light snow scenarios, snow will likely accumulate on sub-freezing paved surfaces. The snow could produce minor travel impacts including slippery travel and pockets of reduced visibility.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Confidence continues to increase for widespread snowfall as low pressure moves southeast from the Great Lakes Friday, although there's still uncertainty in the timing/placement of the surface low's associated upper trough which has an impact on QPF and the resulting snow accumulations/impacts. At this point, it appears that the highest snow accumulations could occur across the snowbelt region of NE OH and NW PA thanks to the added moisture from the upstream Great Lakes. Longer range ensemble probabilities suggest that there is potential for at least 4 inches of snowfall between the low on Friday and possible lake effect snow as colder air (once again) moves over the region into the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/

From the previous TAFs, have removed the fog/low stratus development for YNG and CAK as this looks to stay east of the region in Pennsylvania according to current satellite imagery, with an eastward drift as well, but it will still have to be watched overnight. Ceilings lower with an upper level trough/weak warm front moving through and light snow potential on Monday, but playing the visibility changes conservatively and only going to MVFR at times in -SN. Northwest winds less than 12kts.

Outlook...Periodic non-VFR due to low clouds and/or snow expected through this Thursday. Non-VFR likely Thursday night into Friday with a cold front moving through the region.

MARINE

Lake Erie remains completely ice covered and will continue to be through the near term as temperatures will stay below freezing. Winds across the lake are light, generally less than 10 knots out of the west and will shift to be out of the southwest tonight as a surface high pressure moves off to the east. Winds will continue to shift to be out of the south at 5 to 15 knots throughout the day Monday then shift to be westerly to northwesterly behind a weak cold front moving through on Tuesday. Another ridge builds across the region late Tuesday and persists through late Thursday and winds will stay around 10 knots or less out of the northwest.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.