textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Severe weather across the area has winded down and moved off to the east. Strong winds will continue across the region ahead of the cold front passing through this evening. Showers and thunderstorms are likely across the southeastern counties this evening though are not expected to be severe.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Thunderstorms possible through the evening, primarily for the eastern Ohio. Heavy rain in thunderstorms and training storms possible.

2) Strong winds expected Friday with passing low pressure system.

3) Active pattern continues through middle of next week with a series of low pressure systems moving through the region.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE #1: The majority of the severe weather for the area has trended down for over the past few hours with storms exiting off to the east. For the remainder of the day, the best instability will be off to the southeast by late this afternoon and evening timeframe. CAPE will still be around 100-300 J/kg from areas east of I-71, low and mid- level lapse rates will be on the lower side at 5-6 C/km. Winds will be fairly uniform in direction up through the column, though there is still decent shear as the winds do vary in speed from the surface to low levels. The main threats for this afternoon/evening will still be strong winds supported by the previous mentioned strong low- level flow. Given the thunderstorms moving through midday today, there is uncertainty in the later in the day storms to be able to produce severe weather as the atmosphere will be fairly worked over at that point. So anticipate that any severe storms should stay south and east of the area. Regardless, with the cold front moving in, strong winds will still occur as most locations are currently gusting over 45 mph across the region.

As far as the heavy rain threat goes, it will be similar to the severe threat and the heaviest rain will stay to the southeast of the area. That being said, around 0.50" of QPF is expected in the southeast counties of the CWA through this evening with the showers and thunderstorms that will move through. Generally, the higher amounts will be within the thunderstorms and if there is training across areas as well could cause some nuisance flooding. Lower amounts are expected to the north and west. Showers and thunderstorms should be clear of the area to the east by midnight tonight with the cold front moving through.

KEY MESSAGE #2: A potent low pressure system will be moving into the Great Lakes region Thursday night into Friday morning. Winds in the low- levels will begin increasing to 50-60 knots at 925mb with warm air advection by Friday morning. Precipitation will be minimal for the most part though will help mix down the winds to the surface in the afternoon. Winds will be gusting up to 60 mph with the strongest of the gusts being west of the I-71 corridor. Additionally, winds will be gusting in NE OH and NW PA in the early afternoon along the ridge as winds will be out of the south to southwest and will be downsloping. A Wind Advisory will likely be needed for the areas west of I-71 and in NE OH and NW PA. Winds will begin to subside Friday evening as a cold front passes through and winds back to be out of the west to northwest.

KEY MESSAGE #3: An active pattern will continue through the middle of next week as an upper level trough sets up across eastern CONUS. A series of low pressure system will move through the Great Lakes beginning on Friday. For Friday, outside of the winds mentioned in the key message above, precipitation should be minimal though will begin as a rain/snow mix due to southerly flow and warm air advection. Temperatures will warm above freezing throughout the day and all precipitation will change over to rain and should exit the area by Friday evening. Another low pressure system will move into the region late Saturday night as a warm front lifts north. Precipitation will start off as snow, with some accumulation possible, then change over to rain as the warm front moves through. As the cold front moves into the region, rain will be the primary precipitation type then change over quickly behind the cold front with much colder air being ushered in. With this colder air, there is potential for some lingering lake effect snow showers across NE OH and NW PA Sunday night into Tuesday. Given the event is several days away, finer details of impacts and totals remain uncertain.

AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/

The main show of showers and storms has exited to the southeast early this afternoon with a mix of mostly VFR to higher MVFR ceilings in their wake. The area remains in the warm sector and southerly wind gusts to 35 kts are possible. A pre-frontal trough will push through the airspace this afternoon and evening allowing for some iso/sct rain chances and a slight wind shift to the west. The main cold front will sweep through this evening into tonight, allowing for northwest winds. Wind gusts with the boundaries could get to 30 kts. A mix of MVFR and IFR ceilings will take over behind the cold front tonight into Thursday. High pressure building into the region on Thursday will allow for ceilings to lift and exit through the late morning and early afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered rain/snow showers on Friday. Gusty west to southwest winds of at least 35 to 40 knots are expected on Friday. Non-VFR likely to return in rain/snow showers Saturday night into Sunday.

MARINE

A week of active marine weather is expected for Lake Erie. Low pressure with a cold front will move through the region tonight and allow for increasing northwest flow over the basin. A Small Craft Advisory remains for the nearshore waters of Lake Erie through Thursday for elevated winds and waves. Thursday will have a reprieve with high pressure entering with backing flow. Friday will be the most impactful day of the period with a strong low pressure system moving through the region and a stronger cold front crossing the lake. Southerly flow will quickly increase on Friday to 30 kts and gale force winds are possible with the cold frontal passage on Friday evening. Have gone ahead and issued the Gale Watch for the entire lake. High pressure will quickly enter for Saturday and winds will be quick to subside. Another strong low pressure system will target the region early next week and may have additional strong winds with elevated waves on the lake. More marine headlines may be needed.

CLIMATE

Daily high temperatures are forecast to approach records March 11th. Here are the record warm high temperatures at area climate sites for March 11th.

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 03-11 76(1990) 72(1990) 73(1977) 72(1977) 70(1977) 72(2021)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ142>144. Gale Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for LEZ142>147-162>167. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Thursday for LEZ145>149. Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for LEZ148-149-168-169.