textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast remains on track.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated showers this afternoon with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon. Widespread rainfall expected Sunday night through Monday which may result in rises on area rivers.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Lingering upper level troughing will continue to influence the region despite surface high pressure slowly building overhead from the west. Some isolated showers this afternoon across portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania will diminish later this evening. Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the day on Saturday as a shortwave aloft moves overhead. Coverage will remain scattered with the highest PoPs confined to southeastern zones.

The majority of Saturday night into the daytime hours on Sunday will be dry as the shortwave exits the region. By Sunday night surface low pressure is forecast to approach from the west before tracking across the Ohio Valley during the day on Monday. Area PWATs averaging ~1.75 inches are forecast which is well above the 90th percentile for mid/late June. Current rainfall amounts Sunday night through Monday range between 1-1.5 inches with slightly higher amounts of 1.5-1.75 inches across the western third of the forecast area. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible in any strong thunderstorm and/or storms that train over the same area. Rises on area rivers are expected with the possibility of a few rivers rising into minor flood stage. Will continue to monitor the track of the surface low and rainfall amounts as we near closer to Monday. WPC expanded the Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall to include the majority of the forecast area during this timeframe.

AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/

VFR will prevail through the TAF cycle, but expect widely scattered diurnally driven showers to develop beneath the cold air aloft again this afternoon aided by a weak shortwave dropping through the broad cyclonic flow. Coverage should be slightly higher than yesterday, but confidence is still low on anything impacting a terminal. The greatest potential is at KMFD, KCAK, and KYNG, so used VCSH there. Otherwise, just a mid- level cloud deck is expected today before scattering out tonight.

Light W winds early this morning will increase to 10-15 knots this afternoon, gusting up to 25 knots at times. W winds will decrease again tonight.

Outlook...Showers and storms are possible Sunday afternoon through Tuesday morning with the potential for non-VFR coverage.

MARINE

Quiet conditions are expected on Lake Erie today and most of Sunday, with W winds of 5-10 knots this morning increasing to 10-15 knots this afternoon before turning light and variable tonight into Sunday afternoon. Conditions will start to change Sunday evening as low pressure moving out of the Mississippi Valley lifts a warm front to just south of the lakeshore Sunday night. This will support E winds increasing to 15-25 knots Sunday night, turning NE at 15-25 knots Monday behind the trailing cold front as the low progresses toward the Mid Atlantic. NNE winds will then gradually decrease Monday night, turning NNW at 5-10 knots Tuesday through Wednesday as high pressure builds down across the Great Lakes. Small Craft Advisories are likely Sunday night and Monday, with the highest winds and waves expected in the western and central basins.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.