textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry and seasonable weather is expected through at least the beginning of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Quite a quiescent weather pattern remains in place for the foreseeable future. Through the work week the local area will be sandwiched between ridging aloft over the central U.S. and troughing over the Northeast. This will support general surface high pressure, dry weather and seasonable temperatures. Ridging aloft is expected to shift east this weekend, keeping us dry but likely allowing temperatures to trend a bit warmer. Splendid weather for outdoor fall activities is expected this weekend. Highs mainly in the 60s and lows in the 30s/40s will be the general theme, though we may see some lower 70s by Sunday. Inland locales will see additional opportunities for frost over the coming nights, especially farther east. For Tuesday night into Wednesday morning the greatest potential for frost looks to be across far Northeast OH and Northwest PA where the growing season has ended away from the lakeshore...though there will likely be some frost farther west towards interior North Central OH, and we may need an advisory for at least a handful of counties where the growing season has not been deemed "over". Will let the day shift take a better look at that potential.

AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/

VFR across the TAF sites this morning with mainly VFR to persist through the TAF period. Patchy fog is possible tonight into Wednesday morning and could impact TOL/FDY with non-VFR vsbys. Have introduced MVFR conditions in this update, thoughcan't rule out IFR conditions in future packages.

Winds are generally light and variable this morning, less than 5 knots. Winds will favor a northeast direction this afternoon, 5 to 8 knots before becoming light and variable again tonight.

Outlook...Outside of overnight patchy fog, mainly VFR is expected through Saturday.

MARINE

Winds will shift northeast over the lake today and increase to 10-15kt, with a brief period of 15-20kt winds east of the Islands this evening. Waves will increase to 1 to 3 feet this afternoon through tonight, with a brief period of 2 to 4 footers this evening east of the islands. Conditions will be near Small Craft Advisory criteria for a few hours - holding off on the headline early this morning, but will continue evaluating in case winds/waves trend slightly higher. Lighter and more variable winds with little wave activity for Wednesday and Wednesday night. North-northeast winds to around 10kt develop on Thursday and will build some chop, with winds expected to shift more northeast and increase to 15-20kt for a time Thursday night into Friday. 2-4 or 3-5 footers will likely build and a Small Craft Advisory may be needed, especially in the central basin.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.