textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The forecast largely remains on track and no major changes were needed with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lake effect rain/snow showers are expected this morning before transitioning to rain through Sunday.

2) High pressure builds in early next week with drier, seasonable weather expected through the majority of the week. Temperatures may rise above normal by late next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Lake effect showers will continue through much of the weekend thanks to persistent upper level troughing. Precip type will start off as a cold rain or a rain/snow/graupel mix early this morning, but extensive cloud cover and air coming off of relatively warm Lake Erie will result in marginal temperatures between roughly 33 and 37 degrees at inland locations downwind from Lake Erie (and even warmer temperatures along the lakeshore). Showers will also be rather cellular in nature so do not anticipate any appreciable snow accumulation outside of some slush on grassy surfaces. Any snow will transition to rain as temperatures warm after sunrise today, but graupel can't be ruled out in any heavier showers that develop later today.

Showers may pick up in intensity as flow becomes a bit more westerly and a better moisture connection to Lake Huron is established By this point, there will likely be a primary band of rain across far NE OH and possibly into NW PA with scattered lake effect showers to the east and west. In general, rain amounts will remain below half an inch, but locally higher amounts are possible where the Lake Huron band persists. Temperatures will likely remain above freezing in most locations tonight so expecting a wet rain, but can't rule out a few snowflakes mixing with rain across typical cold spots in interior NW PA overnight.

The upper trough will take some time to push east on Sunday so showers will likely linger across the snowbelt region, but anticipate a downward trend in coverage and intensity throughout the day Sunday as drier air filters in from the west. Any lingering showers should diminish as high pressure takes control late Sunday night or early Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will build east over the area early next week and persist for several days, resulting in dry weather Monday through at least Friday. Temperatures will gradually increase with slightly below normal highs in the upper 40s to around 50 degrees giving way to above normal highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s by Friday as the high shifts east.

AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/

VFR ceilings present at terminals tonight will return to MVFR early this morning across much of Northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Lake effect precipitation is expected to continue downwind of Lake Erie through the TAF period with precipitation likely at CLE/CAK/YNG. Precipitation type may briefly change over to a rain/snow mix during the overnight hours before returning to mainly rain during the daytime. Northwesterly winds 8-12 knots continue with gusts to 20 knots likely in the afternoon.

Outlook...Non-VFR will linger across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through the weekend.

MARINE

Unsettled conditions are expected on Lake Erie through much of this weekend. Winds east of the Islands will be out of the northwest at 15 to 25 knots through tonight with winds gradually diminishing Sunday morning. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect from the Islands east to Conneaut OH through late Sunday morning and from Conneaut OH to Ripley NY from 10 AM this morning until early Sunday morning. There is also potential for waterspouts in lake effect showers through early this afternoon.

Northwest winds will be between 10 and 15 knots Sunday and Sunday night with flow diminishing slowing shifting to the west and diminishing to 10 knots or less Monday. By Tuesday morning, winds will become southwest and increase to 10 to 15 knots. Similar flow will persist through Wednesday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for LEZ144>148. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EST Sunday for LEZ149.