textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Overall forecast expectations are unchanged for this issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Another cold front will move through this morning with scattered rain showers today through Saturday night, and turning much cooler this weekend.

2) Milder and nice weather will return early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... The main weather message today into this weekend will be much cooler temperatures with scattered lake effect rain showers through Saturday night. A stronger cold front will sweep across the area this morning. Winds will become blustery from the northwest today through Saturday night. Lake effect cloudiness and lake effect rain showers will be likely downwind of the Great Lake today into Saturday. High temperatures today and this weekend will be in the 40s and 50s. Overnight lows will be in the 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Nicer weather and a return of milder temperatures will start Sunday into early next week with high pressure building in across the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes region. High temperatures will climb from the 50s into the 60s early and middle of next week. Mainly fair weather conditions are expected for the first half next week. An unsettled and colder weather pattern may develop over the Great Lakes region by late next week.

AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/

Showers and associated MVFR are beginning to spread into NW Ohio affecting KTOL, and these showers and lower cigs will slowly advance eastward through the rest of the terminals through 12Z this morning. Brief drops to IFR remain possible after the onset of the showers, but MVFR will be most prevalent. There will be a lull in the showers from west to east behind the front later this morning with cigs improving to VFR by late morning into the afternoon, especially in NW and north central Ohio, but wraparound moisture and another trough crossing Lake Erie will bring showers back into the snowbelt of NE Ohio and NW PA by late afternoon through tonight, so have additional showers impacting KCLE, KCAK, KYNG, and KERI late this afternoon through the end of the TAF cycle. Decided to keep showers prevailing all day today at KERI. There will likely be a break there too in the early afternoon, but it will be much shorter.

W to SW winds of 5-10 knots early this morning will turn NW after sunrise. NW winds will increase to 5-15 knots in the afternoon, with some gusts to 20 knots at times before diminishing tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected in lake effect rain showers and low ceilings Friday night through Saturday.

MARINE

Turbulent forecast for Lake Erie today into this weekend. Winds will become northwesterly today 15-25kts behind a cold front. Wave heights increase once again 3-5ft late today through Saturday. Winds return to southwesterly 15-25kts for Saturday night and Sunday with wave heights remaining 3-5ft east of Cleveland. Another cold front Sunday night brings northwest winds back at 10-20kts and waves back to 3-5ft. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed late today into this weekend. Will let the daytime marine forecaster later this morning take another look at the timing for any headlines decisions.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.