textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Precipitation forecast is trending drier Sunday into Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures and dry weather, aside from scattered rain showers tonight, will continue into Sunday.

2) Better chance for rainfall will come early to mid-week next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Surface ridge of high pressure extending from the New England coast will exit the region today as a cold front approaches from the Upper Great Lakes region. Ahead of the cold front, southerly flow will warm high temperatures into the mid to upper 70s, roughly 10-15 degrees above normal for late October. A few sites have the potential to approach or reach record warm high temperatures for today. The cold front will arrive in Northwest Ohio this afternoon and gradually slide southeast across the forecast area through late tonight. Scattered showers will be possible along the front with precipitation chances remaining between 40-50% with locally higher chances (50-70%) across portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania where better upper level support is present. Cannot rule out a rumble of thunder across Northwest Ohio late afternoon/early evening as MLCAPE values of 200-400 J/kg are forecast.

Dry weather returns Friday and Saturday as another area of high pressure builds across the region. Slightly cooler, albeit still above normal, with highs in the 60s Friday and Saturday behind the cold front. Chilly overnight lows Friday night in the 40s for most and the low to mid 30s in the higher terrain of Northwest Pennsylvania.

KEY MESSAGE 2... There remains some discrepancy between medium/long range models regarding rain chances Sunday night into Monday. Overall, the forecast is trending drier for that time frame as the aforementioned surface high centered over the region may inhibit rainfall. The high pushes to the east early next week as a broad upper trough digs into the central and eastern CONUS. Models seem to be in a bit better agreement with this system bringing appreciable rainfall to the region sometime middle of next week.

AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/

VFR across the TAF sites this afternoon with isolated non-VFR conditions possible along and behind a cold front tonight into Friday morning, mainly at CLE/YNG/ERI with rain showers/low ceilings. Some isolated thunder is possible this evening along the front, particularly at TOL/CLE/ERI, though low confidence in coverage precludes mention.

Winds are gusty out of the southwest this afternoon, 10 to 12 knots with periodic gusts of 20 to 22 knots. Winds will shift towards the west and northwest, then north behind the cold front late tonight into Friday, 7 to 9 knots.

Outlook...Apart from low rain chances Monday into Tuesday, mainly VFR expected through Tuesday.

MARINE

Southerly to southwesterly winds increase to 10-20 knots this morning ahead of a cold front before shifting northwesterly 10-15 knots behind the front. Choppy conditions with waves 2-4 feet in the central basin remain possible behind the frontal passage through early Friday morning. Northerly winds diminish to 10-15 knots as high pressure returns on Friday before the high exits to the east on Saturday and winds 10 knots or less shift easterly. Offshore flow 10 knots or less will continue into the early part of next week.

CLIMATE

We are forecast to be within a few degrees of record warmth today. Here are the record high temperatures for our six climate sites on October 29th:

Date Toledo Mansfield Cleveland Akron Youngstown Erie 10-29 79(2024) 79(1922) 78(2024) 77(1900) 77(2024) 77(2024)

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.