textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Anomalously-cool air mass arrives today with lake- effect showers possible.

3) Temperatures return near or slightly above normal by the end of the week and weekend. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase by early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Much cooler weather will arrive behind the cold front today as 850 mb temperatures fall to around 6C. Starting to see some lake effect clouds develop downwind of Lake Erie early this morning, with a few lake effect rain showers possible across the snowbelt later this morning and afternoon. Even with the lake- induced CAPE resulting from the near ~21C 850 mb/water temperature difference, coverage should remain relatively limited with a 700 mb inversion and dry air aloft in place. Slightly higher moisture arriving off of Lake Huron may result in better coverage of rain showers across portions of Northwest Pennsylvania today. Given the chilly air mass in place and cloud cover, highs today may struggle to reach the 70 mark in some spots.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A large upper-level ridge across the Western and Central CONUS will gradually expand further east into the Great Lakes by Friday into the weekend, resulting in temperatures to return near or slightly above normal in the mid to upper 80s. However, a series of upper-level troughs across Hudson Bay appear poised to block the eastward progression of the ridge. This pattern would favor increasing rain chances across the area by early next week (late Sunday through Tuesday), with the potential for some organized stronger thunderstorms given the supportive mid and upper-level environment. Will continue to monitor trends over the next several days.

AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

A few lake effect rain showers are likely at KYNG early this morning. Otherwise, dry weather is expected at most terminals with MVFR ceilings likely in lake effect clouds at NE OH/NW PA terminals through late this morning. Ceilings will likely improve to VFR this afternoon. Winds will be out of the northwest at 8 to 12 knots with periodic gusts to 20 to 25 knots early this morning with winds diminishing to 10 knots or less at most terminals by afternoon. Light and variable winds are expected after 00Z Thursday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms on Sunday.

MARINE

Northwest winds to 15 to 20 knots are expected through much of this morning before gradually diminishing late this morning into the afternoon. Small Craft Advisories remain in place from the Islands east to Ripley NY through this evening, although latest guidance suggests that these headlines may end as early as this afternoon as waves quickly subside with the diminishing onshore flow. From there, variable and relatively light winds (around 10 knots or less) are expected through at least Saturday. Southwest winds may increase by a few knots late Saturday into Sunday.

An unseasonably cool air mass will be in place over Lake Erie today into Thursday. There is a slight chance of waterspouts in lake effect showers today and a slight chance in any land breeze showers early Thursday morning. Conditions will be marginal so confidence is somewhat low at this point, but will keep an eye on waterspout potential during future updates.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for OHZ010>012- 089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ144>149.