textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lingering lake effect rain showers and clouds will continue across the snowbelt into Tuesday.

2) Showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead of a cold front Wednesday night through Thursday. There is a low risk for strong to severe storms at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... The latest satellite imagery reveals a large upper-level low slowly rotating east across Quebec this afternoon, with lingering weak surface troughing found over the Eastern Great Lakes. Radar imagery reveals mainly isolated to scattered light lake effect rain showers across portions of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania this afternoon. Coverage is expected to remain mainly isolated to scattered as low-level moisture remains limited. Conditions will gradually improve throughout the day Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the west, resulting in a wide array of temperatures ranging from the low 80s across Northwest Ohio, to the upper 60s or low 70s across Northwest Pennsylvania.

KEY MESSAGE 2.. The next system will cross the area Wednesday night into Thursday, extending a cold front across the region Thursday night. Rain chances will first increase Wednesday night along and west of the I-75 corridor as decaying showers and thunderstorms begin to move east into the area, associated with a pre-frontal shortwave. Still some uncertainty on the timing of this feature, though the latest guidance favors redevelopment of this activity Thursday afternoon, generally east of the I-71 corridor. There is some support for some stronger storms to develop ahead of the front Thursday afternoon and evening in this area, aided by a 25 to 30-knot SW 700 mb jet, though the overall threat for a more organized severe weather threat remains lows at this time.

AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/

A broken band of lake-effect showers continues to be in the vicinity of KERI. This band will continue to bring occasional light rain to the terminal, and a brief period of heavier rain and cigs/vsby restrictions to MVFR is possible through late afternoon, so maintained a TEMPO group. Otherwise, VFR is expected through the TAF period as high pressure and associated drier air slowly build in, so expect cigs to continue to scatter out. There could be some MVFR mist in NW and north central Ohio late tonight where skies are faster to clear, so continued that mention at KTOL, KFDY, and KMFD, but confidence is lower on if actual fog will develop. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday.

MARINE

The lake will gradually calm this evening and tonight as high pressure builds into the Lower Great Lakes. Expect WNW winds of 15-25 knots late this afternoon to decrease to 5-10 knots tonight while becoming NW. This will allow the current 2 to 5 foot waves to subside to generally 1 foot or less by Tuesday morning, but some 1 to 2 footers could hold on in the far eastern basin through midday Tuesday. The Small Craft headlines remain on track to expire from west to east this evening, starting with the Islands to Avon Point at 21Z then Avon Point to Ripley at 04Z. Winds and waves will continue to be monitored for the possibility of expiring these earlier.

Light and variable winds Tuesday will turn S to SW at 5-10 knots Tuesday night and Wednesday, increasing to 15-20 knots ahead of a cold front Wednesday night. Winds will then turn WSW and gradually decrease behind the front Thursday, becoming N at 5-10 knots by Thursday night through Saturday as another area of high pressure builds down across the Great Lakes.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for OHZ009-010. Beach Hazards Statement until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ011- 012-089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement until midnight EDT tonight for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ144- 145. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LEZ146>149.