textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of a cold front on Wednesday, and again on Thursday afternoon. A few strong to severe storms are possible, mainly across Northwest Ohio Wednesday afternoon and evening.

2) Temperatures will trend warmer by the end of the weekend into early next week with increasing shower and thunderstorm chances.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A mid-level shortwave (25-30 knots of WSW 700 mb flow) will traverse the base of an upper-level trough Wednesday into Thursday across the Great Lakes as a cold front sweeps east through the area on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front Wednesday afternoon and evening, primarily impacting portions of Northwest Ohio along the I-75 corridor, and again Thursday afternoon, generally east of the I-77 corridor. The greatest threat for organized thunderstorms on Wednesday will be west of the area across portions of north-central Indiana, though depending on the eastward extent of the instability gradient, a few of our counties along the I-75 corridor across Northwest Ohio could see some strong to severe storms as well, generally between 6 and 10 PM. Damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph appear to be the primary concern, though large hail up to 1 inch and a brief tornado also cannot be ruled out.

Showers and thunderstorms should largely diminish overnight as the shortwave swings east through the Ohio Valley, though redevelopment is possible again Thursday afternoon with the aid of diurnal heating, mainly east of the I-77 corridor. The latest guidance suggests a decreasing risk for strong to severe storms Thursday afternoon as the greatest coverage of storms continues to trend further east of the area into Pennsylvania and Southeast Ohio.

KEY MESSAGE 2.. After a brief stint of drier and seasonable weather, a large upper-level ridge will enter the region towards the end of the weekend into early next week with increasing temperatures and humidity. Highs will reach above average in the mid to upper 80s on Sunday, potentially touching 90 in some spots by Monday. In addition, we'll also have to continue to monitor the potential for showers and thunderstorms, especially Monday night through Tuesday as an upper-level trough swings east through the Upper Great Lakes.

AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

High pressure will be overhead tonight with clear skies and calm winds. Patchy BR with 4-5 SM visibility is briefly possible early Wednesday morning but probability was too low to add to the TAF at this time. Additional afternoon cumulus cloud are expected with southerly winds around 7-10 knots Wednesday.

Showers and thunderstorms approach from the west Wednesday afternoon, reaching KTOL as early as 22Z. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday.

MARINE

High pressure overhead will result in lake breezes on Lake Erie today, especially east of the Lake Erie Islands. Land breezes will return tonight with south to southwest winds on Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Winds increase to 10-20 knots ahead of the front on Wednesday night with waves of 2 to 4 feet in the open waters. Scattered thunderstorms may also accompany the front from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning and may result in erratic wind/wave conditions. Winds shift to the north behind the front on Thursday night at 10-15 knots but are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria as winds decrease quickly into Friday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.