textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes from the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Below average temperatures and periodic rain showers will continue through Wednesday.

2) Dry and more seasonable weather will return by the end of the week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... The latest radar and satellite imagery reveal a large area of clouds and generally light rain showers across the Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes this afternoon, associated with a surface trough ahead of a broad upper-level feature to the west across the Upper Midwest. Surface observations also depict a stationary front located further south near the Lower Ohio Valley, thus thunder chances for our area through Wednesday will remain limited. Occasional rain showers, particularly across portions of North-Central and Northeast Ohio, will continue into this evening, before largely dissipating overnight. Can't rule out rain persisting across a small portion of Northwest Ohio overnight into Tuesday along the surface trough, though coverage should be more isolated and light elsewhere. The next chance for widespread and perhaps a more steady rain may return late Tuesday night into Wednesday as the upper-level feature approaches the area, with an increasing arc of 850 mb E to SE winds transporting more favorable moisture into the area.

Periodic rain showers and cloud cover will contribute to below average daytime temperatures in the 60s or perhaps even upper 50s at times and lows in the 50s or upper 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will build south across the Great Lakes by the end of the week and likely persist through the weekend. Initially, high pressure and the departing chilly air mass could result in a favorable scenario for some lows in the upper 30s to develop, particularly across inland Northwest Pennsylvania, though 40s should be more common elsewhere. The air mass will gradually moderate through the weekend with high pressure in place as temperatures return to the upper 60s to low 70s by Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/

A similar pattern as observed on Monday is expected to persist into Tuesday as scattered light rain showers remain possible for much of the day. In addition, many terminals are already non-VFR this morning with low ceilings being the primary driver of these conditions. There is isolated areas of 4SM or less with mist being reported, but given the breezy conditions not expected much in terms of fog. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty in the aviation forecast given the expected scattered nature of showers and uncertainty with how far north low ceilings will push. Have opted to handle much of the precipitation chances with TEMPO/PROB30. Overall, aviation conditions across the area today will likely bounce around flight categories. The only exception is KERI which should remain VFR.

Northeast winds of 10-15 knots this morning will become gusty in the 20-25 knot range by this afternoon. The strongest gusts will occur nearest the lakeshore and along the I75 corridor.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with showers and occasional thunderstorms through Thursday.

MARINE

Rough marine conditions will continue across Lake Erie through Wednesday with persistent east to northeast winds of 20 to 30 knots resulting in wave heights of 4 to 7 feet. Conditions will remain choppy on Thursday as northeast flow only gradually improves to 15 to 20 knots. Winds will continue to gradually weaken on Friday into Saturday, though will remain out of the north to northeast with the building high pressure to the north, 10 to 15 knots.

Given the lingering surface trough draped across Lake Erie, can't rule out a small chance of waterspouts with any showers that develop tonight through Tuesday, particularly across the central and western basin of the lake.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday evening for OHZ003- 007-009>012-089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ142>148. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LEZ149.