textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Extended chance to slight chance PoPs through this morning to account for lingering lake-enhanced precipitation potential. Confidence in stronger southerly winds late Thursday into Friday is increasing so increased wind gusts across the area, especially in NW PA where winds will be enhanced due to downsloping off of higher terrain.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lake-enhanced rain/snow showers and fog/mist/drizzle across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania this morning will give way to a period of dry weather through much of Thursday.

2) First low pressure system will bring rain, gusty winds, and unseasonably warm temperatures to the area Thursday into Friday.

3) Second low pressure system will deliver additional rain and breezy winds to the region over the weekend with colder temperatures and lake effect snow showers likely in its wake on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...

Persistent upper troughing will produce additional light lake- enhanced precipitation across far NE OH and NW PA through early this morning with precipitation dwindling this morning as a ridge takes control. Temps have cooled enough across portions of NE OH/NW PA for some wet snow and a rain/snow mix, but any snow accumulations should generally be around an inch or less and be confined to the higher terrain of Erie County, PA. Elsewhere, saturated air under a low level inversion will result in patchy to areas of fog/mist/drizzle through this morning. Conditions should start to improve this afternoon, although clouds may struggle to clear until better ridging builds in this evening. Once lake-enhanced showers/drizzle end, dry weather is anticipated through Thursday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Low pressure will lift northeast out of the central Plains and into the Upper Midwest Thursday into Friday, lifting a warm front across the local area Thursday night into early Friday. Isentropic ascent ahead of the warm front will usher increasing rain chances into the local area starting as early as late Thursday afternoon, although most locations will probably remain dry until later Thursday evening. The low's associated cold front will move into the area at some point Friday afternoon/evening which should allow PoPs to briefly decrease Friday evening, although the air mass won't change much since the next system will follow closely behind.

Gusty southerly winds are likely ahead of and just behind the warm front with widespread gusts to 30 to 40 mph anticipated overnight Thursday and early Friday morning. Locations that typically experience downsloping during southerly winds (primarily the lakeshore of NE OH/NW PA and especially northern Erie County, PA) may experience a brief period of advisory-level gusts between about Midnight and 9 AM Friday morning. Wind Advisories may be needed, but there's still uncertainty in how efficiently gusts mix to the surface in the widespread rain showers.

Deep warm air advection will produce temperatures that are well above normal for this time of year with highs in the 50s expected across most of northern Ohio Thursday and widespread 50s and lower 60s anticipated on Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The next surface low will lift northeast from the Tennessee Valley or Mid-Mississippi Valley early Saturday before crossing or scraping the CWA Saturday afternoon and deepening to the northeast of Lake Erie Saturday night. While there's still some uncertainty in the evolution and track of the low and the resulting precip chances/winds over the local area, most of the area will see a period of rain during the day Saturday into Saturday night. The best upper level forcing and trough axis won't cross the area until Sunday, so above normal temperatures will persist through Saturday before stronger cold air advection returns by the end of the weekend. Highs in the lower 30s are expected Sunday and it will be quite breezy with gusts to 30 to 35 mph (possibly higher) likely during the day. Accumulating lake-enhanced snow showers are likely with and behind the trough axis Sunday, although wintry precip will likely be short-lived as a ridge builds east across the region on Monday.

AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/

A cold front will exit terminals to the east over the next 1-2 hours leaving IFR to LIFR conditions in its wake. Additionally, some lingering lake effect rain/snow showers are expected at KERI behind the cold front through this afternoon. Anticipate non-VFR cigs/vis to persist at terminals through the majority of the TAF period. Visibilities will return to VFR late this morning with ceilings gradually improving from IFR/LIFR to MVFR and eventually VFR through this afternoon and evening as a ridge of high pressure builds overhead from the south.

Elevated westerly surface winds 10-15 knots with gusts 20-25 knots will decrease over the next few hours behind the passing cold front. Expect for westerly to northwesterly surface winds of 5-10 knots through the remainder of the TAF window.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected in periods of rain and/or snow Thursday through Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Friday.

MARINE

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 8 AM for the nearshore waters from Geneva-on-the-Lake to Ripley New York. Winds and waves will decrease quickly today as a ridge builds east across the Ohio Valley. Low pressure tracks northeast across Lake Michigan on Thursday night with southerly winds increasing to 15 to 25 knots. A strong low level jet will overspread Lake Erie but very warm temperatures over the cool lake waters will prevent the stronger winds aloft from mixing down.

Another low pressure system will deepen as it tracks north across Lake Erie on Saturday, with a lingering trough pulling a strong cold front east across Lake Erie Saturday night into Sunday. Southwesterly winds ramp up to 30 knots as the cold front wraps in from the west Saturday night. A secondary cold front will pivot east across Lake Erie Sunday evening. Some differences in storm track and strength remain and could result in a window of gale force winds if the stronger solutions verify. Low water conditions will also be possible on the western basin of Lake Erie over the weekend. The combination of the warm temperatures late this week and strong southwesterly winds over the weekend could lead to disruption or movement of the ice field on the western basin of Lake Erie.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for LEZ148- 149.