textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the prior forecast or messaging.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lingering showers diminish through this evening.

2) The forecast is dry for the remainder of the long term. The coolest overnight lows so far this season are expected Thursday and Friday nights.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A weak upper low continues spinning over the northern Ohio Valley this afternoon as an inverted surface trough gradually shifts west across northern Ohio. These features continue to produce scattered showers this afternoon, especially across North Central OH. The upper low will fill and shift to the southeast tonight into Thursday as easterly low-level flow advects in drier air. This will cause showers to continue gradually shifting west while diminishing and eventually ending through this evening. Skies are expected to gradually become more clear from east to west through the night, with fog not expected due to a bit of an easterly breeze. Lows tonight will range from the 40s across parts of interior Northeast OH/Northwest PA to the low to mid 50s across Northwest OH and near the Lake Erie shoreline.

KEY MESSAGE 2... High pressure will build into the Great Lakes Thursday and Friday, persisting into early next week bringing a prolonged period of tranquil/dry weather. The next chance for rain appears to be Wednesday of next week. Below normal temperatures through Monday will begin rebounding on Tuesday as we get into return flow behind the departing high. Locations away from Lake Erie will see several nights with lows likely dipping into the 40s through early next week. The coolest nights will be Thursday and Friday nights. It is possible that a few more sheltered valleys east of I-79 in Northwest PA dip into the upper 30s Thursday night, along with perhaps in some isolated spots across interior Northeast Ohio and around the Central Highlands. Dew points look a few degrees too warm to really be concerned about a widespread or impactful frost Thursday night/early Friday so do not have any included in the forecast at the moment.

AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/

Mainly VFR across the TAF sites this evening with VFR to persist through the TAF period. Lingering MVFR ceilings at FDY are expected to quickly improve to VFR over the next hour or two. Still tracking some showers near the I-71 corridor, though potential for direct TAF impacts remains low. Isolated thunder remains possible over the next hour or two as well, though low confidence in coverage precludes mention.

Winds remain of the east to northeast this evening, 7 to 11 knots. Winds will generally remain out of the east to northeast through the TAF period.

Outlook...Mainly VFR favored through Monday.

MARINE

Generally east-northeast flow will continue through the weekend. Flow has subsided slightly to 10-20kt for much of today, but may increase a few knots early this evening. Winds will generally then be in the 10-15kt range (enough to build 2-3 foot waves at times given the northeasterly fetch) through Saturday night, but may again briefly increase to 15-20kt Thursday afternoon and evening. Will give the end times of the current Small Craft/ Beach Hazard headlines before sending the full package, though in general the idea is conditions will fall below criteria this evening into tonight. Waves may briefly increase back towards headline criteria Thursday afternoon/evening between the Islands and Willowick. Beyond that headlines appear unlikely over the next several days, though as mentioned above waves will kick up to 2 to 3 feet at times through the weekend amid onshore flow.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 4 AM EDT Thursday for OHZ003-007- 009-010. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ142>145. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ146>148.