textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rain no longer expected on Thursday, with PoPs trending higher late Thursday night into Friday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry weather continues with temperatures rising to to upper 70s and low 80s Wednesday and Thursday.

2) Rain showers return Thursday night into Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure will continue to build into the area, becoming centered over the lower Great Lakes region on Tuesday. Dry and seasonable weather is expected to continue.

Southwest flow develops on the backside of the departing high on Wednesday, with above normal temperatures expected on Wednesday and Thursday as highs rise to the upper 70s Wednesday afternoon and around 80 Thursday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A weakening southern-stream disturbance over the Southwest will become increasingly sheared through midweek, with associated moisture spreading northeastward within strengthening southwesterly flow. A northern-stream trough crossing Ontario Thursday into Friday will drive a cold front across the region. The combination of increasing moisture and frontal forcing should result in increasing shower changes Thursday night into Friday.

Model guidance continues to trend towards a slower system with a lower QPF solution. Thursday is now expected to be dry with rain showers with most of the mainstream global NWP starting to bring rain showers into the northern and western parts of the forecast area Thursday night. The AI models, including the ECWMF AIFS and AIGFS have slower solutions and have tended to outperform their physically derived counterparts (GFS/ECMWF), so would expect the forecast to continue trending drier Thursday night with a better chance of rain showers on Friday instead. Overall QPF is likely to be light (most model guidance at or less than 0.5" QPF) and thunderstorms are very unlikely due to the lack of instability expected.

AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/

VFR will continue across most of the region today and tonight as high pressure remains anchored across the Great Lakes. However, a mid-level cloud deck will move in from the east and lower across far eastern Ohio and western PA this morning into the afternoon. This will bring MVFR to KCAK, KYNG, and KERI. There are some hints at some IFR cigs, especially at KERI later this morning, but confidence is not high enough to put in the TAF, so kept things MVFR at this time. This cloud deck should exit this evening, with all sites returning to VFR.

Otherwise, brief periods of fog and mist could bring IFR to LIFR conditions to KMFD and KYNG early this morning, but it should not be as widespread as yesterday morning given the increasing clouds. N winds will average 5-10 knots today and tonight.

Outlook...Mainly VFR expected through Wednesday, though periods of early morning patchy fog and lower clouds are possible. Non- VFR possible in scattered showers on Thursday and Friday.

MARINE

As north winds diminish, 2-3 ft waves this morning will improve to nearly calm conditions by late this afternoon. These conditions will continue through at least Tuesday evening as high pressure remains overhead.

Southerly flow around 10 to 15 knots develops Tuesday night as high pressure departs to the east, continuing through Wednesday night. Flow strengthens to 15 to to 20 knots and becomes southwesterly on Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.