textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this update as tranquil weather continues through most of this upcoming week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry weather with pleasant temperatures much of the week. A gradual warming trend begins on Wednesday.

2) Potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms returns as early as late Friday and peaks over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure overhead today weakens slightly into Monday with re-enforcing high pressure building into the Great Lakes and Mid Atlantic Tuesday and Wednesday, before sliding southeast for Thursday and Friday. Dry/tranquil and pleasant weather continues through Thursday, with temperatures beginning a gradual warming trend Wednesday and Thursday as we get into light return flow on the backside of the surface high and as heights aloft begin to rise over the eastern US. The weak gradient will likely allow for lake breezes most afternoons over the next several days, keeping locations close to the lake a bit cooler.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Building warmth and increasing humidity, along with a frontal boundary sagging into the Great Lakes, will allow for some shower and thunderstorm potential to return as early as Friday and into the weekend. Friday should mainly be dry, though as a weak shortwave moves through the northern Great Lakes and provides some minimal forcing it's possible there's just enough moisture and instability for a few late day showers and storms. Heading into the weekend, the front is expected to be close by just to the north on Saturday but with rather minimal jet support, likely allowing for disorganized/scattered activity. While some model runs and ensembles build high pressure into the Northeast and push the front south for Sunday, others move the next shortwave in from the west quicker. That would keep the front farther north for the second half of the weekend... leading to increased uncertainty by Sunday. Temperatures will warm to above normal for Friday and Saturday as dew points also climb into the 60s. Sunday's forecast will depend on the front's placement, with a warm and humid airmass and shower/storm chances south of the front and milder, drier conditions north.

Overall, there are low rain chances on Friday but some limited activity can't be ruled out late in the day. Saturday is the highest confidence day for at least some scattered/disorganized shower and thunderstorm potential, with a 40-60% chance in the forecast across the area. Similar chances (40-60%) are currently in the forecast for Sunday, though do note the uncertainty regarding the placement of the front. The overall risk for severe weather and flooding next weekend appears low, given rather modest amounts of forcing and shear. It is worth noting that with precipitable water values climbing above average and a more humid airmass that at least some localized downpours and heavy rain may still become something to monitor.

AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/

Flying in and out of northern Ohio and NWPA will be ideal over the next 24 hours with VFR conditions expected to prevail. High pressure over the Great Lakes will continue to bring fair weather and clear skies through Monday evening. Winds will be light and variable 5 knots or less. A light northeasterly flow of 5 to 8 knots will arrive later tonight into Monday. There will be a light lake breeze this afternoon at CLE and ERI up to 8 knots before returning to variable later this evening.

Outlook...VFR expected through Thursday.

MARINE

High pressure will persist over the Great Lakes and keep quiet marine conditions around through at least Friday of this week. A northeasterly flow of 5 to 10 knots expected through tonight. The northeasterly flow will increase slightly to 10 to 15 knots during the day Monday and Tuesday, especially over the central and western basin of Lake Erie. With that uptick of NE winds, waves may briefly climb up to 2 to 3 feet with those daily afternoon lake breezes. A southerly or southwesterly wind around to 10 to 15 knots may return by the end of the week and weekend.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.