textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Conditions remain dry across the area with no changes needed with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry conditions will persist through Friday will gradually warming throughout the week.

2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A broad upper level omega block will allow for high pressure to continue to influence the area through at least Friday, keeping conditions dry. As the center of the high slowly drifts east across the area, a return to south-southwesterly flow will allow for a gradual increase in temperatures through Friday. Highs today through Wednesday will generally be in the mid to upper 70s before slowly nudging into the 80s closer to the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Models continue to suggest the aforementioned omega blocking pattern beginning to break down this weekend, although it seems like every model runs slows it down more and more. In the latest run, an upper level shortwave trough is expected to push east on Saturday, bringing the potential support needed for showers and thunderstorms to develop across the area. Overall confidence remains fairly low so opted to keep the PoP range in the 30-50% range at this point. Given the weak setup, not expecting anything severe at this point, but cannot rule out a few heavy showers.

AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period under high pressure. Mainly clear skies though some SCT high clouds will continue to move overhead tonight. Northerly to northeasterly winds 8-12 knots this evening will decrease to 8 knots or less overnight tonight. Anticipate another period of afternoon wind gusts, primarily KCLE-KMFD and points west, on Tuesday afternoon. Peak wind gusts will generally remain in the 20-25 knot range.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday.

MARINE

Pleasant marine conditions are expected to persist through at least Friday as a high pressure system lingers. Waves should remain around 1 foot or less for much of that time, although a few waves of 2-3 feet are possible across the western and central basin on Tuesday as winds increase a bit from the northeast. Aside from that, winds will gradually transition from a northeast flow of 8-12 knots to light and variable into Friday. As the high drifts east, winds will increase once again from the southwest at 10-15 knots on Friday and Saturday

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.