textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A line of convection continues to push east across the Mahoning valley this evening, remaining sub-severe with isolated wind gusts up to 20-25 knots possible and small hail. The severe threat across northern Ohio this evening has significantly decreased with SPC now highlighting the area in a Slight Risk. Additional storms are possible beginning around midnight tonight as the cold front pushes east. There is a small chance that some of those storms could be strong to severe with gusty winds the primary concern, but given the unfavorable timing confidence remains low on the intensity of that convection. Overall, the area should see a lull in any convection/precipitation over the next couple hours.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and thunderstorms will first move into the area between 5 and 8 PM. A few could be severe with damaging winds and heavy rain the main hazards, but the storms with the greatest severity and organization should stay west of the area.

2) Additional showers and thunderstorms with lower severe potential will accompany a cold front overnight.

3) A few lingering showers in NE Ohio and NW PA Tuesday and Wednesday, but otherwise drier, much cooler, and less humid through the end of the week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...The forecast continues to be very challenging and low confidence this evening and tonight in terms of how upstream convection will evolve and impact our region. Two complexes of thunderstorms are currently ongoing. The largest and most organized of the two complexes (MCS's) is currently propagating S to SE across eastern Wisconsin, Lake Michigan, western Lower Michigan, northern Illinois, and NW Indiana. This MCS has produced widespread significant wind damage and multiple tornadoes but will continue to make a hard right turn to the S as it follows the eastern periphery of the thermal ridge, where a very impressive theta e/instability gradient is draped from N to S along a quasi-stationary front. This will allow this MCS to largely miss our area to the west this evening, but the eastern edge of it may clip the I-75 corridor in the roughly 21-00Z (5 to 8 PM) timeframe with gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

The second and smaller of the two MCS's is located over southern Lake Huron and southern Ontario Province. This MCS is being more directly forced by the strong mid/upper shortwave trough that is seen on water vapor imagery digging into the northern Great Lakes this afternoon. As this shortwave dives through the central Great Lakes this evening, the left exit of a 115-120 knot H3 jet streak will generate strong synoptic forcing to sustain this MCS, as well as strengthen a surface low that will move SE into southern Ontario tonight. Despite lower instability across northern Ohio and NW PA (2000 MLCAPE) compared to the extreme instability feeding the larger Lake Michigan MCS, the combination of the jet support and surface low should maintain this Lake Huron convection into our area. Current trajectories time this MCS to reach NE Ohio and NW PA in the 22 to 23Z (6 to 7 PM) timeframe. The aforementioned sufficient MLCAPE combined with 40-50 knots of effective deep layer bulk shear oriented perpendicular to the convection will support at least scattered severe winds, especially as the boundary layer continues to warm late this afternoon, with DCAPE increasing to over 1000 J/Kg. Even in the absence of severe weather, most areas will see some rain and thunder with this activity. KEY MESSAGE 2... After a lull early tonight, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of the cold front as the mid/upper jet support moves overhead tied to the shortwave crossing the central Great Lakes. The convection this evening should overturn the atmosphere and effectively use much of the instability, but the aforementioned left exit region dynamics will encourage strong forcing ahead of the cold front to get the additional convection going overnight. This convection should generally not be severe given the lower instability, but gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Maintained high POPS overnight until the cold front clears the area.

KEY MESSAGE 3... The mid/upper shortwave will become vertically stacked with the surface low and close off over upstate New York by Tuesday evening. This along with the parent longwave mid/upper trough becoming negatively tilted across the eastern CONUS by Wednesday and Thursday will allow the system to evolve into a coastal low near Long Island. The result for northern Ohio and NW PA will be broad cyclonic flow and associated cold air advection Tuesday through Thursday. A secondary front or surface trough dropping through the region Tuesday afternoon combined with the deepening trough aloft will generate scattered showers, mainly in interior NE Ohio and NW PA, so increased POPS Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, wraparound moisture in the cyclonic flow combined with cold air advection across the warm lakes will lead to periodic lake enhanced showers over far NE Ohio and NW PA through Wednesday before Canadian high pressure finally builds into the central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley late Wednesday and persists through the end of the week, supporting pleasantly cool and dry conditions areawide. Low temperatures will drop into the 50s both Thursday and Friday mornings allowing the air conditioners to get a break before gradual warming over the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/

A narrow line of sub-severe convection is making its way east through the Mahoning Valley this evening, but should depart east of the area shortly after 00Z. Another round of convection is expected late this evening into the early overnight hours as a cold front moves across the area. This complex of convection can currently be observed in northern MI and will be the area to watch in the coming hours. With this line, expect diminished conditions as reduced visibilities and falling ceilings will quickly transition terminals from VFR to IFR. If the precipitation dissipates before reaching northern Ohio, still expect ceilings to be high end IFR (around 800-900 feet) to low end MVFR (1-2kft). Confidence is rather low in the timing given widespread amongst models, but expecting at least rain showers for much of the area. Conditions will remain diminished through late morning/early afternoon on Tuesday before lifting to VFR by the afternoon across the entire area.

Winds of 5-11 knots from the southwest will persist through tonight with isolated gusts up to 20 knots. In areas with convection, some gusts may be higher but that will depend on the intensity of convection. As the front moves east Tuesday morning, winds will shift to north-northwesterly and increase to 10-13 knots with widespread gusts of 20-25 knots possible through the end of this TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR may persist in lower ceilings and scattered showers through Wednesday, primarily across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania. Non-VFR possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.

MARINE

Scattered thunderstorms are likely this evening and tonight and winds/waves will likely be higher in any storms. Southwest winds will shift to the northwest and increase to 15 to 25 knots early Tuesday morning through much of Wednesday. The highest winds/waves will be in the nearshore and open waters of the central basin. Small Craft Advisories and Beach Hazards Statements have been issued from the Islands to Conneaut Tuesday morning through late Wednesday evening and from Conneaut to Ripley NY from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon. Small Craft conditions may briefly occur west of the Islands early Tuesday morning so will need to monitor that area for a brief expansion.

Northwest winds to 10 to 15 knots will continue through Thursday with more light and variable flow and daily lake breezes developing Friday into the weekend.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Beach Hazards Statement from Tuesday morning through late Wednesday night for OHZ009>012-089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ144>148. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 4 PM EDT Wednesday for LEZ149.