textproduct: Cleveland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast remains on track with no major changes made.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure builds into the region and dry weather and warming temperatures are expected through the majority of the week with a low chance of showers on Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure will persist across the Great Lakes region through Tuesday night. Can't rule out some additional patchy fog developing along the Lake Erie lakeshore overnight tonight, though not expecting the fog to be as dense or widespread as it was earlier this morning.

As we remain in the control of the high, expect for temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s for highs each afternoon with overnight lows settling in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Dry weather is expected tonight through Tuesday evening before an upper trough lifts across the Ohio Valley. Expect for shower and thunderstorm chances to increase overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. The bulk of the precipitation chances will remain across the southern half of the forecast area, mainly along and south of US-30.

A surface cold front will push south across the forecast area Wednesday night into Thursday with high pressure returning on Thursday. Slightly cooler, but remaining dry, behind the cold front with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s Thursday into the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/

Very stubborn fog is finally burning off, and this will continue through mid afternoon allowing for mostly sunny and VFR conditions. The fog will likely hold on the longest at KERI. VFR is then expected through early tonight, but confidence is increasing that all terminals will once again experience dense fog late tonight into Tuesday morning. Timing of the most impactful fog could shift forward or backward an hour or two, but generally expect the worst conditions in the 08-12Z timeframe when IFR and LIFR will dominate before gradually improving through the morning.

NE winds of 5-10 knots this afternoon will become light and variable late this evening through tonight before turning generally E to NE again Tuesday.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible with rain showers in central Ohio on Wednesday.

MARINE

Quiet conditions are expected on Lake Erie through the start of the weekend as pressure gradients remain weak and a large dome of high pressure overall controls the Great Lakes. Light and variable winds are expected at night, turning generally N to NE at 5-10 knots during the days Tuesday and Wednesday. Stronger N to NE winds of 5-15 knots are then expected Wednesday night and Thursday before turning light and variable Friday then back to N to NE Saturday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None.