textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Key Message 1 was updated to expire the Red Flag Warning and to issue a Fire Danger Statement for Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Elevated risk for wildfires continues into Sunday.

- 2) Mostly dry conditions through mid-week with above normal temperatures.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Elevated risk for wildfires continues into Sunday.

Conditions could again become critical Sunday as gusts could peak around 20-25 mph in the afternoon. However, minimum RH values will likely remain above 40% which is above the "critical" criteria. Regardless, a Fire Danger Statement has been issued given the ongoing dire fuel situation and earlier reported fire behavior with RH below 60%.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Mostly dry conditions through mid-week with above normal temperatures.

Zonal flow aloft will dominate across the southeastern states next week, yielding a generally quiet weather pattern. Surface high pressure will hold strong over the region, favoring a warming temperature trend, with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s by mid-week. There is some ensemble support for some weak showers/tstorms to develop in the afternoon each day, however the probabilities of >0.5" are zero according to the ECMWF ENS and the GEFS. The forecast currently features POPs each afternoon through mid-week in the slight chance to chance range, however these are likely overdone with the chances of measurable precipitation rather low.

A cold front will approach the region late in the week, bringing the region its first real chance at measurable rainfall.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

29/00z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 30/00z.

Extended Aviation: Prevailing VFR into next week. Brief restrictions are possible at all terminals each afternoon next week with weak showers/tstorms.

MARINE

Tonight: Winds will slowly diminish through tonight. Gale Warnings were downgraded to Small Craft Advisories for the nearshore waters but were maintained until 2 AM over the Georgia offshore waters were the risk for gales continues.

Sunday through Wednesday: Prevailing surface high pressure will yield sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions across all marine waters through mid- week.

High Surf: The latest NWPS wave guidance shows 5-6 ft breakers developing along the Georgia beaches this evening and expanding north along the lower South Carolina coast overnight. The High Surf Advisory has been expanded north to include the lower South Carolina beaches through 11 AM Sunday. Model data suggest these breakers may linger into Sunday afternoon, so the advisory may need to be extended in time pending further model trends.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...High Surf Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ117-119-139- 141. SC...High Surf Advisory until 11 AM EDT Sunday for SCZ048>051. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ330. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Monday for AMZ350-352. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Monday for AMZ354. Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ374.