textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections have been updated.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) A weak cold front will push through the region on Thursday ushering dry conditions with temperatures near and/or above normal through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: A weak cold front will push through the region on Thursday ushering dry conditions with temperatures near and/or above normal through the weekend.

Satellite water vapor indicated a thin vort max sliding east of the Fall Line, over the Coastal Plain of GA/SC. This feature was aiding in maintaining isolated to scattered showers across the forecast area. In addition, a sea breeze pushing inland was triggering isolated to scattered showers. This feature should push over Atlantic this evening, ending the shower activity across the CWA.

Near term guidance indicates that a dry cold front will briskly sweep across the region around dawn Thursday morning. Given sunny conditions and downslope flow should result in warmer temperatures on Thursday compared to today. Using a blend of MOS, high temperatures are forecast to range from the mid 80s along the coast to around 80 inland. Forecast soundings indicate that mixing heights will peak between 6-7 kft. The deep mixing should result in dewpoints to 40s inland to the low 50s along the coast. After RH values may fall into the 20s inland to the low to mid 30s along the coast. Fortunately, northwest winds should generally range around 10 mph, with occasionally gusts into the teens.

Friday, temperature and humidity conditions will remain nearly identical to Thursday. As high pressure builds over the region, winds will become light, generally around 5 mph. The weekend into the first part of next week should remain dry. with high temperatures above normal.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Prior to the 18Z TAFs, KCLX detected a slow moving sea breeze between KJZI and KCHS, drifting inland. Along the sea breeze, scattered to isolated showers should continue through this afternoon. In addition, patches of MVFR ceilings may remain near the sea breeze through mid afternoon, highlighted in the KJZI TAF. Winds should become light this evening along with clearing sky. A dry cold front will result in a wind shift from the northwest during the early daylight hours Thursday morning. Northwest winds with sunny conditions should remain through the rest of the TAF period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

MARINE

A dry cold front is timed to push across the nearshore waters Thursday morning. High pressure will build over the region on Thursday, with the high center arriving over the waters on Friday. High pressure will remain over the western Atlantic. Conditions should feature winds below Small Craft Advisory levels with wave heights between 2 to 4 ft.

Rip Currents: Thursday: There will remain a 2-3 ft swell at 7 to 8 seconds periods at our beaches. Internal calculations point to a Low Risk at all of our beaches. However, RCMOS points to a borderline Low/Moderate Risk along our SC beaches and a Moderate Risk along our GA beaches during the daylight hours. Since Tybee, GA is prone to rip currents, we upped the risk to Moderate for our GA beaches, but left the risk Low for our SC beaches. On Friday, breaker heights may decrease by a foot, but tidal ranges will begin to increase. Rip risk will continue to feature a low risk for SC beaches and a moderate risk for the GA beaches.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.