textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation section updated.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) A cold front should bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region Thursday into early Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front should bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region Thursday into early Friday.

As high pressure continues to build into the region behind the front, drier air combined with clear skies will persist through the early week. High temperatures will remain in the low to mid 70s today, and then warm back up to above normal temperatures through Wednesday. High temperatures could approach the mid to upper 80s inland and close to 90 degrees across portions of southeast Georgia by Wednesday. Aloft, the zonal pattern will transition as a mid-lvl trough swoops down from central Canada to the lower Mississippi River Valley. This aforementioned trough will be accompanied by an associated sfc cold front and the front is projected to pass through the region on Thursday afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, some of the recent model guidance has been suggesting modest instability combined with a decent amount of shear could be in-place. This set- up will likely yield scattered showers and thunderstorms through Thursday late morning through the evening. Some of the thunderstorms could become quite strong esp. if peak instability coincides with the timing of FROPA. The exact timing of the front remains to be the main point of uncertainty. Some of the timing differences amongst the model guidance is largely due to the phasing of the mid-lvl trough. However, the front seems to be progressive side, indicating that the risk of showers and thunderstorms training over a certain area will be rather low. The front should push offshore by Thursday night as drier, more stable air filters in behind it.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

00Z TAFs: VFR.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions expected through Wednesday. Flight restrictions are possible at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals with scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with a passing cold front Thursday.

MARINE

Through tonight: As surface high pressure builds across the local waters, marine conditions should remain on the tranquil side. Expect light north-northeasterly winds to switch out of the east- southeasterly this evening. Seas will range from 2 to 3 ft as northeasterly swell tapers back overnight.

Monday through Friday: As the surface high slides off into the Atlantic in the early this week, expect winds to gradually veer more to the south-southeasterly. Ahead of the approaching cold front, the pressure gradient will become pinched on Tuesday night into Wednesday, leading to marginally breezy south-southeasterly winds. Heading into Thursday (as the front inches closer), winds will become breezier with models supporting gusts up to 25-30 kts through Thursday evening across the most of the local waters. Simultaneously, seas should gradually build to 4-6 ft across the South Carolina waters and 3-4 ft across the Georgia waters. Therefore, Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed on Wednesday night into Thursday. After the front pushes offshore, marine conditions should stabilize overnight on Thursday into Friday.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.