textproduct: Charleston

SYNOPSIS

A storm system will move through our region today, yielding widespread showers and some thunderstorms. High pressure and drier conditions return thereafter, with gradually warming temperatures.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Tonight: The low pressure system and associated cold front will be offshore by early evening, shifting further east and away from the coast overnight. Sfc winds will turn more northerly as the system departs the area and precip chances will come to an end this evening, while dry and colder air begins to usher into the area. However, low stratus should linger across most areas through the night. Low temps are forecast to dip into the upper 30s north/inland to low-mid 40s closer to the coast and across much of Southeast Georgia.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

The mid-levels will consist of northwest flow overhead on Sunday. It'll gradually transition to zonal flow by Tuesday. At the surface, High pressure will pass to our north on Sunday, then shift well offshore by Tuesday. The periphery of the High will bring our land areas dry conditions, with a mix of sun and clouds. High temperatures will be at or slightly below normal on Sunday due to northerly surface winds and cold air advection. However, high temperatures will quickly rebound to above normal Monday, rising even further on Wednesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

The periphery of surface High pressure will continue to bring our area dry conditions through the end of the week. The big story will continue to be the high temperatures well above normal each day, along with the mild overnight temperatures.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Prior to the 0Z TAFs, a wavy cold front has slipped south of the terminals. North of the front, winds have shifted from the NNE with IFR ceilings and rounds of drizzle. Forecast soundings and MOS indicates that IFR ceilings will remain through the rest of the night. Conditions should begin to improve during the mid to late morning. HREF indicates that dry air will push south across the terminals during the early afternoon, resulting in VFR conditions.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

MARINE

This Afternoon through Tonight: Southwest flow will prevail ahead of an approaching cold front and associated sfc low this afternoon into early evening. In general, wind gusts should top out near 15-20 kt, but could gust to around 25 kt across outer Georgia waters where low- lvl mixing is stronger. Seas should also build to 2-4 ft across nearshore waters and 4-6 ft across outer Georgia waters. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect across outer Georgia waters based on these current and/or expected conditions, and will likely persist into overnight hours as winds turn northwest, then more northerly behind the cold front and associated sfc low shifting further offshore. The pressure gradient should begin to gradually relax late night, allowing wind/sea conditions to drop below Small Craft Advisory levels across local waters.

Extended Marine: High pressure will pass to our north on Sunday, then shift offshore afterwards. This will lead to rather tranquil conditions for the coastal waters, with no Small Craft Advisories expected.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Winds shift to the north-northeast Sunday morning behind a departing low pressure system, leading to a favorable wind direction for greater tidal departures during the Sunday morning high tide cycle in the Charleston Harbor (at 829 AM). The forecast notes minor coastal flooding with a predicted water level of 7.1 ft MLLW as of now. Therefore, a Coastal Flood Advisory could be needed on Sunday morning.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Sunday for AMZ374.