textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections have been updated

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) A multi-day coastal flooding event will slowly diminish through the remainder of this week. - 2) Sustained northeast winds will maintain a High Risk of rip currents along our South Carolina and Georgia beaches today. - 3) Dry and warming conditions will continue through the week before rain chances increase late weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: A multi-day coastal flooding event will slowly diminish through the remainder of this week.

Astronomical tides have begun to trend lower and will continue to slowly decrease into the weekend. Minor to moderate coastal flooding will likely continue through the weekend at Charleston for the morning/early afternoon high tides. Minor flooding will likely occur at Fort Pulaski this morning and tomorrow morning before diminishing for the weekend. Additional coastal flood advisories will be needed for Charleston and Colleton counties likely through Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Sustained northeast winds will maintain a High Risk of rip currents along our South Carolina and Georgia beaches today.

The combination of elevated northeast winds and tides, and persistent long-period swell will support dangerous rip currents along our beaches. A High Risk of rip currents is in place for all area beaches today, driven by 5+ ft swells every 9 seconds. As winds and tidal influences back off Friday, the rip current risk for the South Carolina beaches will shift to moderate, while a high risk remains for the Georgia beaches. An enhanced risk will likely continue through Saturday (Oct 31), which marks the end of the 2026 surf season and the final routine issuance of the Surf Zone Forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Dry and warming conditions will continue through the week before rain chances increase late weekend.

High pressure will begin to slowly breakdown by Friday as upper ridging aloft deamplifies. Conditions should remain dry through Friday night, although a few marine-based showers could impact the Georgia and far southern South Carolina coast Saturday as a weak coastal trough forms just offshore. Temperatures will steadily warm into the weekend, with highs pushing 80 away from the coastline by Friday. Overnight lows initially in the 50s will warm into the 60s.

A rather drastic shift in the pattern is expected this Sunday and Monday as a southern stream shortwave pivots across the Deep South and Southeast States. There remains uncertainty on how strong this trough and any corresponding surface reflection will be and as a result the overall amounts of rainfall and timing is less than certain for being a few days out. This uncertainty is best reflected in the LREF QPF fields which show large 6-hour interquartile ranges during this time. While the specifics are yet to be determined (degree of forcing aloft, amount available instability, etc), it does appear conditions will become increasingly unsettled this weekend into early next week with higher rain chances. A brief break in the action likely comes Tuesday and Wednesday with shortwave ridging building over the deep south ahead of our next system. By Thursday, a rather deep upper trough is expected to push across the central US and into the east. While this trough is rather far out, it certainly is one to keep an eye on as it brings a cold front from the west.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

IFR ceilings have developed across most of the area this morning but clearing has been noted across Charleston County using satellite and visual observations. JZI and CHS should quickly clear to VFR over the next hour. IFR conditions should prevail across coastal GA and far southeastern SC through mid- morning with rapid clearing to VFR from north to south this morning with SAV lasting the longest at IFR. VFR conditions should prevail this afternoon and into the overnight. Otherwise, northeast winds will remain elevated and could produce some gusts into the 15-20 knot range relaxing overnight.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Gusty northeast winds are possible at the terminals this weekend into early next week, primarily during the afternoon hours.

MARINE

Today and Tonight: A persistent inland wedge of high pressure will maintain elevated northeast winds and seas through tonight. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all nearshore waters out 20 nm (excluding the Charleston Harbor) and the offshore GA waters out 60 nm. For today, expect northeast wind gusts of 25 to 30 kt, nearshore seas of 4 to 7 ft, and offshore seas of 7 to 9 ft. After midnight, conditions will gradually improve with some Small Craft Advisories beginning to drop Friday morning.

Friday through Tuesday: Conditions will improve markedly on Friday as the pressure gradient relaxes, bringing an end to the prolonged Small Craft Advisories for the nearshore waters (out 20 nm). However, improvement will be short-lived. Restrengthening of the inland wedge to the north this weekend and then the development of a weak coastal trough afterwards will drive northeast gusts back up to 25-30 kt and building seas above 6 ft. Another round of Small Craft Advisories for the nearshore waters could be needed Saturday afternoon potentially into Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory for the outer Georgia waters (from 20-60 nm) will likely continue through the entire period as 6 ft seas or greater will remain.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ217-219-239- 241. Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for GAZ217-219-239- 241. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ148>151. Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for SCZ148>151. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ360-362. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ364. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ384.