textproduct: Charleston
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
All sections updated.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) Locally heavy rainfall is possible today with showers and storms.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Locally heavy rainfall is possible today with showers and storms.
A large mid level trough, centered over the Great Lakes, will dominate over the eastern CONUS today.. WPC surface analysis from 15Z shows a weak front draped across the SC Midlands. This front will be the main forcing behind showers and storms this afternoon as it slowly moves towards the SC Lowcountry and SE Georgia. While a strong storm cannot be ruled out, the main hazard this afternoon will be heavy rainfall as PWATs are analyzed around 1.9 to 2.0". The 12Z guidance depicts the bulk of the precipitation developing around 22/23Z this evening, generally along and east of I-95. The 12Z HREF shows probabilities of 1 inch or greater east of I-95 around 50-70%. Shower and storm activity is forecast to wind down by 9 PM.
Sunday Onward: The aforementioned upper trough will finally move far enough east to usher in some drier air into the area by Sunday into Monday. With drier air in place and the surface boundary pushed offshore, rain chances should remain low through Monday. However, moisture should begin to recover starting Tuesday and into the middle of the week with a return to more typical summertime pattern setting up.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A TEMPO group has been introduced at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV to reflect the threat for TSRA this afternoon. Thereafter, prevailing VFR through the remainder of the 18Z TAFs.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR.
MARINE
Today through Thursday: Marine conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period. A fairly typical summertime pattern on tap. Generally expect south to southwest winds averaging in the 10-15 knot range with gusts to 20 kt at times and seas 2 to 3 feet. Any showers or thunderstorms that move over the waters have the potential to bring higher wind gusts and frequent lightning.
CLIMATE
Record High Minimum Temperatures:
August 24: KCHS: 76/2010 KCXM: 80/1975
August 25: KCHS: 77/1982
August 27: KCHS: 78/2011
August 28: KCHS: 77/2020
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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