textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The high rip current risk Key Message was removed. The Aviation section was updated for the 13/00z TAFs. An equipment section was added to address KCLX maintenance.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) A weak cold front will push through the region on Thursday ushering dry conditions with temperatures near and/or above normal through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: A weak cold front will push through the region on Thursday ushering dry conditions with temperatures near and/or above normal through the weekend.

As a mid-lvl trough sweeps down from the Great Lakes towards the Mid- Atlantic on Wednesday evening into Thursday, an associated weak cold front will traverse across the region on Thursday morning. Lingering moisture (PWATs near 1.2 to 1.5 inches) combined with weak cyclonic flow aloft on the backside of the aforementioned mid-lvl trough passing overhead will likely yield isolated light showers on Wednesday across southeast Georgia. This weak cold front should be accompanied with very little rainfall (if any) and will push drier than normal weather conditions into the Southeast. Forecast notes RH values falling into critical values (25-30%) away from the coastline on Thursday through the weekend, however wind speeds will not be breezy enough to raise fire weather concerns. Temperatures will reach into the low to mid 80s on Thursday and Friday, followed by temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s on Saturday.

AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

13/00z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI: VFR through 14/00z. A brief period of cigs near MVFR levels could approach KJZI overnight, but data support keeping these south of the terminal.

KSAV: Light rains will linger along/south of I-16 through the night. Thankfully, no meaningful impacts are expected with drier air keeping likely keeping vsbys at the terminal VFR in the rain. There are mixed signals if cigs will build down to MVFR overnight. Observations to the south suggest cigs will likely approach, but not drop, into MVFR.

Extended Aviation Outlook: There is a risk of flight restrictions associated with the passage of cold front Wednesday into Thursday morning.

MARINE

Winds have dropped enough in the Charleston Harbor to allow the advisory to expire there at 6 PM.

Through Tonight: Small Craft Advisories as breezy east- northeasterly winds persist behind the cold front. East- southeasterly swell continues to build into the local waters through the rest of the evening with seas ranging from 5 to 7 ft across the nearshore waters (0-20 nm) and 6 to 8 ft across the outer Georgia waters (20-60 nm). Marine conditions will gradually improve late tonight as the high pressure shifts offshore. The SCA for the Charleston Harbor will end at 6PM, and then the nearshore waters late tonight.

Wednesday through Sunday: Expect a low pressure system to develop offshore on Wednesday, however very minimal marine impacts will occur from this. The remaining SCA across the outer Georgia waters will hold on until Wednesday early afternoon as some 6 footers linger. A weak cold front will sweep over the waters on Thursday morning, and then high pressure will prevail thereafter.

Rip Currents: There is a Moderate Risk of rip currents Wednesday at all beaches as the combination of strong to gusty northeasterly winds and elevated seas will yield an increased threat of rip currents. Comparing the parameters to a couple different models and taking into account the observations seen from today, the risk for the southeast South Carolina beaches was increased from a low to moderate Risk for tomorrow. The moderate risk for the Southeast Georgia beaches was maintained, however the RCMOS was suggesting some indication that there could be a need for a high Risk tomorrow. This will need to be re-evaluated overnight. There is a low risk of rip currents for Thursday.

EQUIPMENT

The KCLX radar remains offline for maintenance.

Users of KCLX radar data are urged to use adjacent WSR-88D sites which also cover much of Southeast South Carolina, Southeast Georgia and the adjacent coastal waters. These include:

KCAE - Columbia, SC KLTX - Wilmington, NC KJAX - Jacksonville, FL KVAX - Moody AFB, GA KJGX - Robbins AFB, GA

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ217- 219-239-241. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ360-362. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ364. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ384.