textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Marine Section has been updated for ongoing trends.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Dry and breezy conditions will continue across the region through Thursday.

- 2) High risk of rip currents at all beaches through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry and breezy conditions will continue across the region through Thursday.

Heading into Thursday, overall conditions should be improved compared to conditions experienced Wednesday afternoon. Relative humidity values are expected to be ~15 percent higher, and winds won't be nearly as gusty. However, fuels remain extremely dry thanks to the prolonged severe to extreme drought in place. So, though we might not reach explicit Fire Danger Statement criteria, it is possible one could still be issued.

KEY MESSAGE 2: High risk of rip currents at all beaches through Thursday.

Strong northeast winds and elevated seas will continue to support a High Risk of rip currents at all beaches through Thursday. Looking ahead to Friday, winds and seas will remain elevated and another High Risk could be needed.

AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 00Z Friday. The exception could be a few hours of MVFR vsbys due to haze/smoke at CHS this evening, mainly until 03Z. Gusty winds in the 15-20 kt range are possible at times tonight, but could eventually remain around 10 kt between midnight and daybreak Thursday. Gusty northeasterly winds return at all terminals late morning and afternoon Thursday (around 20 kt), before gradually turning more east/east-northeast late in the TAF period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

MARINE

Through Thursday night: Strong high pressure will remain positioned to the northeast, extending down the Eastern Seaboard. This setup will continue to drive strong northeast flow across the local waters. Current buoy observations indicate that a gale event is ongoing outside the Charleston Harbor, with frequent gusts around 35 knots. This should continue through the evening, with gusts likely diminishing to less than 35 knots overnight and through Thursday. Gale Warnings will likely come to an end either late this evening or by the early morning hours on Thursday and will need to be replaced by Small Craft Advisories. The gradient will really start to relax Thursday night, resulting in diminishing winds though seas will remain elevated.

Friday through Monday: High pressure will become more directly centered across the area Friday into Saturday which will allow marine conditions to steadily improve. Small Craft Advisories could linger through Friday night but should come down everywhere Saturday. Winds should return to a more typical pattern for the late weekend and into early next week, with onshore flow topping out around 10-15 knots.

High Surf: Coastal web cams show a very disturbed surf zone, as would be expected with northeast winds gusting 25-35 mph and seas up to 10 feet at 41008 and up to 12 feet at 41004. Breaking wave heights of 5-6 feet will continue through the evening. Looking ahead to Thursday, conditions will likely become much more marginal. Winds along the coast won't be quite as strong and seas should come down as well. We will keep the High Surf Advisory through Thursday for now, but its possible it could be canceled early.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for GAZ117-119- 139-141. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ117-119-139- 141. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for SCZ048>051. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for SCZ048>051. MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ350-352-354-374.