textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections have been updated.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Rain chances likely to increase late in the week, though no hazardous weather is anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain chances likely to increase late in the week, though no hazardous weather is anticipated at this time.

Aloft, strong ridging will remain in place across the western Atlantic and the Southeast U.S. At the surface, a cold front will push toward the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday before stalling Thursday, then gradually sagging south into the Carolinas Friday as a wedge pattern develops. The front is then expected to lift north as a warm front this weekend.

As this front approaches and lingers, moisture will gradually rise along with increasing rain chances beginning Thursday and continuing into the weekend. However, the exact position of the front and how far south it progresses will be the key factor in determining rainfall coverage and amounts across the area. Current trends continue to favor a strong Atlantic ridge, which should keep the front displaced to the west and north of the forecast area. As a result, a drier solution is becoming more likely. Ensemble guidance now indicates probabilities for rainfall amounts exceeding one inch through Saturday have decreased to below 25%, with the highest chances generally confined to areas farther inland near the stalled boundary. While confidence is increasing in a lower-impact rainfall scenario, some uncertainty still exists given potential shifts in the front over the coming days. Regarding severe weather, the better moisture and instability are expected to remain to the north and west. Combined with weak large-scale forcing and shear, the severe weather threat remains low through the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

19/18z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR for the period. Gusty winds will occur with the passage of the sea breeze this afternoon. Shallow ground fog will be possible again at all terminals early Wednesday morning.

Extended Aviation Outlook: There are no high confidence concerns.

MARINE

Through Tonight: Quiet conditions will persist with the region positioned along the western flanks of Atlantic high pressure centered well offshore. East/southeast winds will prevail with speeds less than 15 kt, although some local enhancement along the land/sea interface and Charleston Harbor will likely occur with the sea breeze. Seas will average 2-4 ft.

Wednesday through Sunday: No marine concerns are expected. High pressure to the east will drive onshore east-southeasterly flow each day, with wind speeds mostly topping out in the 10-15 knot range. Each afternoon and evening there could be some local enhancement along the land/sea interface with the diurnal sea breeze. Seas will average 2-4 feet through the period.

Rip Currents: Influences from the new moon cycle combined with persistent onshore flow will produce an elevated risk of rip currents. A moderate risk for rip currents is in place for all beaches today.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.