textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Key messages have been updated for ongoing trends this evening.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) High temperatures will be slightly above normal on Tuesday, then gradually rising through the holiday weekend. Heat Advisories could be needed during the holiday weekend across portions of our area.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: High temperatures will be slightly above normal on Tuesday, then gradually rising through the holiday weekend. Heat Advisories could be needed during the holiday weekend across portions of our area.

Ridging aloft will remain the dominant synoptic feature this week, initially centered over the TN Valley on Tuesday. It will then shift eastward towards the East Coast by the end of the week and remain in place through the holiday weekend. The main forecast highlight will continue to be the temperatures. Wednesday will feature highs slightly above normal, with temperatures warming to above normal into the holiday weekend. High temperatures could again reach into the mid to upper 90s late week and into the holiday weekend, which combined with dewpoint values in the 70s will likely yield heat index values in the 100-110 range. Heat Advisories could be required for portions of the forecast area at the end of the week and into the holiday weekend. Generally a dry forecast has been maintained, with PoPs trending upwards towards a more typical summertime pattern in the later half of the holiday weekend.

AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 00Z Wednesday. Winds will become light from the northeast overnight, then become more directly east Tuesday morning and afternoon, possibly gusting upwards to 15-20 kt during peak heating hours. A few showers and/or thunderstorms could impact the SAV during the afternoon, but confidence remains too low to mention in the latest TAF issuance.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are anticipated at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through late week.

MARINE

This Evening and Overnight: East/southeast winds around 10 kt or less this evening will shift to northeast and slightly surge to 10-15 kt overnight well behind a boundary/weak front departing south of local waters. Seas will generally range between 2-3 ft, possibly building a foot approaching daybreak Tuesday (largest beyond 20 nm from the coast).

Extended Marine: The synoptic pattern will generally support winds from the NE or E through Thursday. Then, they will clock around to the SW by Friday morning. Friday into the holiday weekend, winds will have a typical summertime pattern. This will consist of some backing during the day, with the highest winds along the land/sea interface with the formation of the sea breeze. Gusts could approach 20 kt, especially in Charleston Harbor as the sea breeze moves through. At night, expect winds to veer and possibly ease a few kt. Seas should stay 5 ft or less. No Small Craft Advisories are expected.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

July 4: KCHS: 98/2023 KSAV: 99/1997

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 3: KCHS: 78/2016

July 4: KCHS: 79/2016 KSAV: 79/1931

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.