textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections have been updated.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Dry and breezy conditions will continue across the region through Thursday.

- 2) High risk of rip currents at all beaches through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry and breezy conditions will continue across the region through Thursday.

This afternoon: Observation sites across the area show that northeast winds are quite breezy, with many locations along the coast measuring frequent gusts into the 25-30 mph range. Relative humidity values are dropping as we enter peak heating and peak mixing, and areas away from the coast look to be on track for relative humidity values falling into the 20-30 percent range. Our inland-most counties still have some potential of reaching Red Flag Warning criteria this afternoon, which is relative humidity of 25 percent or less and sustained winds of 20 mph or greater or wind gust of 30 mph or greater. This area aligns well with SPC's Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook area where Critical conditions are highlighted across Jenkins, Screven, Candler, Evans, Bulloch, Tattnall, Allendale, and Hampton counties. A Fire Danger Statement remains in effect through 7 pm this evening.

Looking ahead to Thursday, overall conditions should be improved. Relative humidity values are expected to be ~15 percent higher, and winds won't be nearly as gusty. However, fuels remain extremely dry thanks to the prolonged severe to extreme drought in place. So, though we might not reach explicit Fire Danger Statement criteria, it is possible one could still be issued.

KEY MESSAGE 2: High risk of rip currents at all beaches through Thursday.

Strong northeast winds and elevated seas will continue to support a High Risk of rip currents at all beaches through Thursday. Looking ahead to Friday, winds and seas will remain elevated and another High Risk could be needed.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 18z Thursday. Gusty northeast winds will continue this afternoon with frequent gusts up to around 30 knots at all 3 sites. Gusts should diminish after sunset, but still up to around 20 knots through the evening and even the overnight. Gusts will pick back up into the 20-25 knot range around 13-14z on Thursday and continue through the end of the TAF period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

MARINE

Through Thursday night: Strong high pressure will remain positioned to the northeast, extending down the Eastern Seaboard. This setup will continue to drive strong northeast flow across the local waters. Current buoy observations indicate that a solid gale event is ongoing, with frequent gusts into the 35-38 knot range. This should continue through the evening, with gusts likely diminishing to less than 35 knots overnight and through Thursday. Gale Warnings will likely come to an end either late this evening or by the early morning hours on Thursday and will need to be replaced by Small Craft Advisories. The gradient will really start to relax Thursday night, resulting in diminishing winds though seas will remain elevated.

Friday through Monday: High pressure will become more directly centered across the area Friday into Saturday which will allow marine conditions to steadily improve. Small Craft Advisories could linger through Friday night but should come down everywhere Saturday. Winds should return to a more typical pattern for the late weekend and into early next week, with onshore flow topping out around 10-15 knots.

High Surf: Coastal web cams show a very disturbed surf zone this afternoon, as would be expected with northeast winds gusting 35-40 mph and seas up to 9 feet at 41008 and up to 13 feet at 41004. Breaking wave heights of 5-6 feet will continue through the day and the High Surf Advisory remains in effect. Looking ahead to Thursday, conditions will likely become more much marginal. Winds along the coast won't be quite as strong and seas should come down as well. We will keep the High Surf Advisory through Thursday for now, but its possible (likely?) it could be canceled early.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for GAZ117-119- 139-141. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for GAZ117-119-139- 141. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through Thursday evening for SCZ048>051. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for SCZ048>051. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ330. Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ350-352-354-374.