textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Following a round of morning rainfall, a fairly typical summertime pattern is expected for the weekend into next week with daily shower and thunderstorm chances. Hot and humid conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Following a round of morning rainfall, a fairly typical summertime pattern is expected for the weekend into next week with daily shower and thunderstorm chances. Hot and humid conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday.

The primary upper vort max associated with the remnants of TS Arthur are now moving into our western zones, accompanied by widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms. Fortunately it's moving into a worked-over airmass so the severe wx potential is very low. We should see beneficial rainfall for several hours early this morning as the activity steadily pushes east. The main area of precipitation should be moving offshore by daybreak.

Morning cloud cover may limit boundary layer destabilization, but there could be enough pockets of SBCAPE and convergence associated with a lingering surface trough to spur scattered diurnal convection today.

A front in the vicinity on Saturday will eventually wash out, with the region to become positioned between high pressure offshore and an approaching cold front Monday into Tuesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be in the forecast each day, with coverage peaking in the afternoon and evenings when instability is maximized. Organized severe weather potential is low, but cannot rule out a couple strong to severe storms each day during this time of year.

Also of note, hot and humid conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Heat indices could reach the 105-110F range, particularly along the coastal counties. We will need to watch the potential for Heat Advisories.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

An area of widespread light to moderate rain will move through this morning, then off the coast by late morning. Occasional MVFR ceilings/vsbys this morning, then improving conditions by early afternoon. Gusty SW winds expected at all terminals today. We can't rule out additional shower and tstm development this afternoon but coverage should be limited.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief periods of flight restrictions possible with any showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE

Surface low pressure associated with the remnants of TS Arthur will move through central SC this morning. This will interact with offshore high pressure to temporarily enhance a southwesterly gradient over the waters. Gale Warnings continue for the SC waters from 6am to 4pm due to expected wind gusts of 35-40 kt. Elsewhere, Small Craft Advisories are in effect. Some of the high-res guidance indicates the period of strongest winds may only last 2-4 hours this morning, so the Gales may be able to be canceled early based on future trends.

Saturday through Wednesday: Marine conditions will improve Saturday with no additional concerns through the weekend. A cold front could approach the area Monday into Tuesday, leading to increasing winds and seas. Gusts could approach 25 knots especially Monday and Tuesday afternoons, but looks fairly marginal for Small Craft Advisories at this time.

Rip Currents: Increasing swells and gusty winds will lead to a Moderate risk for rip currents at South Carolina beaches Friday.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ340. Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ360-362-380- 382. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ364. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ384.