textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections have been updated.

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front should bring showers and thunderstorms to the region Thursday into Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front should bring showers and thunderstorms to the region Thursday into Friday.

High pressure will prevail across the Southeast United States, favoring dry conditions and a warming trend prior to the arrival of a cold front Thursday. As the center of the sfc high becomes positioned off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, a southerly flow will help advect warmer temps across the local area, supporting afternoon highs in the mid-upper 80s inland to lower 90s across Southeast Georgia by Wednesday. A return of deeper moisture also occurs with southerly flow persisting into the second half of the week ahead of the approaching cold front, with latest guidance supporting PWATs ~2.0 inches prior to cold fropa. The combination of heat/moisture along with an uptick in wind fields, including the presence of h5 vort energy and a favorable quadrant of a h25 jet passing inland, supports modest instability and shear locally as a mid-upper trough advances across Great Lakes/Ohio River Valley region and forces the sfc front across the Southeast United States. Timing of the front will be key in the overall intensity of convection developing prior to and during fropa locally, but the environment could support a few stronger thunderstorms should the front arrive prior to Thursday evening.

Regardless of stronger thunderstorm potential, scattered showers and thunderstorms are looking more likely with the bulk of guidance indicating precip activity Thursday into early Friday. The speed of the system/front appears to be on the slightly more progressive side, which should limit rainfall amounts to under an inch and minimize the risk for flooding locally, especially outside thunderstorm activity. The bulk of precip activity should push offshore Thursday night as high pressure returns behind the front. However, there is some spread in the guidance in regards to the timing of frontal passage Thursday night into early Friday, which could result in greater precip activity than expected on Friday if the front is delayed.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 06Z Tuesday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions expected through Wednesday. Flight restrictions are possible at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals with scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with a passing cold front Thursday into Friday.

MARINE

Southerly flow will strengthen ahead of an approaching cold front Thursday. We could see a brief period of 25 kt wind gusts and 6 ft seas over portions of the Charleston nearshore and GA offshore waters Thursday afternoon/evening. We may eventually need Small Craft Advisories.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.