textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Aviation section was updated for the 00z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) A weak cold front will push through the region on Thursday ushering dry conditions with temperatures near or above normal through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: A weak cold front will push through the region on Thursday ushering dry conditions with temperatures near or above normal through the weekend.

Near term guidance indicates that a dry cold front will briskly sweep across the region around dawn Thursday morning. Given sunny conditions and downslope flow should result in warmer temperatures on Thursday compared to today. Using a blend of MOS, high temperatures are forecast to range from the mid 80s along the coast to around 80 inland. Forecast soundings indicate that mixing heights will peak between 6-7 kft. The deep mixing should result in dewpoints to 40s inland to the low 50s along the coast. After RH values may fall into the 20s inland to the low to mid 30s along the coast. Fortunately, northwest winds should generally range around 10 mph, with occasionally gusts into the teens.

Friday, temperature and humidity conditions will remain nearly identical to Thursday. As high pressure builds over the region, winds will become light, generally around 5 mph. The weekend into the first part of next week should remain dry. with high temperatures above normal.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

The 00z TAF period begins with VFR conditions at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV. Afternoon shower activity has dissipated and cloud cover is expected to steadily diminish through the late evening. There are some hints in model guidance that a small area of stratus could develop along the GA coast late tonight, but current thinking is that any potential for stratus (if it develops) to reach KSAV is very low. A front will shift through around sunrise Thursday, allowing winds to turn northwesterly for much of the day.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

MARINE

A dry cold front is timed to push across the nearshore waters Thursday morning. High pressure will build over the region on Thursday, with the high center arriving over the waters on Friday. High pressure will remain over the western Atlantic. Conditions should feature winds below Small Craft Advisory levels with wave heights between 2 to 4 ft.

Rip Currents: Thursday: There will remain a 2-3 ft swell at 7 to 8 seconds periods at our beaches. Internal calculations point to a Low Risk at all of our beaches. However, RCMOS points to a borderline Low/Moderate Risk along our SC beaches and a Moderate Risk along our GA beaches during the daylight hours. Since Tybee, GA is prone to rip currents, we upped the risk to Moderate for our GA beaches, but left the risk Low for our SC beaches. On Friday, breaker heights may decrease by a foot, but tidal ranges will begin to increase. Rip risk will continue to feature a low risk for SC beaches and a moderate risk for the GA beaches.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.