textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation section has been updated to reflect the 00z aviation forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Scattered to numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are expected ahead of a cold front through the early evening.

- 2) Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures expected this weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered to numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are expected ahead of a cold front through the early evening.

Current surface analysis (06/18z) suggests that the cold front is entering the interior of the forecast area. The front is expected to steadily move through the forecast area this afternoon and offshore this evening. There is good model agreement that the scattered to possibly numerous showers and even a few thunderstorms will accompany the front, and current radar already depicts some isolated to scattered ongoing activity. The most coverage is expected further north and will primarily impact southeast SC and more specifically Colleton County and the Charleston Tri- County region. Regarding thunderstorm potential, temperatures warming into the low 80s coincident with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s will be sufficient to yield MLCAPE values into the 1,000-1,500 J/kg range. So, we will likely see a few thunderstorms with the best chances in the area of greatest coverage previously mentioned. Wind fields are not particularly impressive and the best forcing and severe environment is expected to remain off to the north across the Pee Dee, Grand Strand, and eastern NC. Rainfall potential remains limited, with moderate potential for amounts into the 0.25-0.50" range with the best coverage and presence of thunderstorms. Elsewhere, localized amounts of 0.10-0.25" will be more likely. Any remaining showers and thunderstorms will shift offshore by the mid evening hours and the rest of the overnight will be dry.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures expected this weekend and into next week.

Behind the departing cold front, expansive high pressure is expected to build in across the forecast area for the weekend and continue into next week. The forecast is dry and no rainfall is expected through the middle of the week. Saturday will bring cooler temperatures, though highs should still get to around climo normals for early November. Sunday could actually be slightly below normal with a much cooler start than we have seen recently. Sunday morning lows are forecast to be in the low to mid 40s away from the coast, which should continue again Monday and Tuesday mornings. Afternoon highs will rebound nicely each day with widespread mid to upper 70s expected Monday through Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A cold front has pushed offshore this evening with light rain showers exiting the area. VFR conditions should return to all aviation sites over the next hour as winds turn northerly overnight. There is some potential that around daybreak some MVFR to IFR ceilings and possibly a few instances of reduced visibilities could spread along an north of I-26 including KCHS and KJZI around daybreak. As a result, we have introduced lowered ceilings to the TAF for a couple of hours from around 09Z to 12Z before returning back to VFR for the remainder of the forecast.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

MARINE

Through tonight: A cold front will shift into the local waters this afternoon and evening, moving off to the east through the overnight. Ahead of the front, southwest winds should top out in the 10-15 knot range. Behind the front, winds will turn more northerly and could get as high as 15-20 knots. Seas are expected to remain 2-4 feet through the evening before increasing up to around 5 feet in the outer GA waters by sunrise Saturday.

Saturday through Wednesday: Northeast winds could be as high as high as 15-20 knots at times through Sunday morning. Thereafter, winds and seas should gradually diminish into early next week with generally quiet conditions and no marine hazards expected.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

November 6: KCXM: 81/2003 KSAV: 86/2018

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.