textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Aviation Section has been updated to reflect the 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) The coastal flood risk will linger into early next week.

- 2) Rising temperatures through Tuesday, remaining above normal next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: The coastal flood risk will linger into early next week.

As a nor'easter churns offshore of the Eastern Seaboard, steady west- northwesterly flow will continue across the Lowcountry and southeast Georgia. Even though this will create a less favorable environment for coastal flooding, the astro tide will still be elevated given the recent full moon. Thus, still expect to see minor (and possibly moderate) coastal flooding with each high tide cycle through early next week (esp. for the Charleston Harbor).

Charleston Harbor: With the ongoing environmental conditions, tidal levels could reach 7.5 ft MLLW in the Charleston Harbor during this morning's high tide (~ 9 AM). Thus, plan to issue a Coastal Flood Advisory with this forecast package, which will be in effect from 7 AM until 11 AM. Thereafter, it's likely to see minor coastal flooding continue through early next week for the Charleston Harbor.

Fort Pulaski: Total water forecasts indicate this morning's high tide could peak around 9.5 ft MLLW, which would yield minor coastal flooding impacts across lower South Carolina and southeast Georgia. Despite the borderline nature, have opted to also issue a Coastal Flood Advisory for this area, which will be in effect during the same time as listed above.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Rising temperatures through Tuesday, remaining above normal next week.

Today will feature weak high pressure over the region as the nor'easter continues to trek towards New England. Quiet weather is expected today, with clear skies and temperatures right around normal. Clear skies and calm winds tonight will set the stage again for radiational cooling, with lows forecast to drop into the low 50s inland with low to mid 60s along the coastline.

As the nor'easter continues to push further away from the region early this week, high pressure will build into the region. A warming trend is forecast as ridging aloft centered over the Deep South and Atlantic high pressure build into the region. By the end of the week temperatures will be back to above normal with highs in the mid to upper 80s and some 90s south of I-16 in Georgia. The forecast will remain rain free through most of the week. The next real shot at rainfall will be late this week into next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through the 12Z TAF period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

MARINE

Today through Thursday: Fairly tranquil marine conditions will be on tap through the period as high pressure becomes the dominant feature across the local waters. Northwesterly flow around 5 to 10 kt this morning will gradually turn more west to southwest this evening, with seas ranging from 2 to 3 ft in the nearshore waters and 3 to 4 ft in the offshore waters. As high pressure shifts eastward on Tuesday and Wednesday, a weak coastal sea breeze circulation becomes more established. Expect winds to become more south to southeast on Tuesday and Wednesday as well.

Rip Currents: A lingering 10-12s backswell directed towards the Georgia and Florida coasts will support a moderate rip current risk from Tybee Island south to Sapelo Island today. Otherwise, a low risk is anticipated for the lower South Carolina beaches.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for GAZ217- 219-239-241. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for SCZ148>151. MARINE...None.