textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

There is an elevated fire danger today and a Fire Danger Statement has been issued for all areas away from the coastal counties. The Aviation Section was updated for the 06z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) There is an elevated fire danger across areas away from the immediate coastline this afternoon through mid-week as dry and breezy conditions develop each afternoon.

- 2) There is a High Risk of rip currents at all area beaches today and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: There is an elevated fire danger across areas away from the immediate coastline this afternoon through mid- week as dry and breezy conditions develop each afternoon.

As high pressure builds into the region, northeast winds this afternoon will gust around 20 to 25 mph, while RH values dip to as low as 25%. These factors combined with extremely dry fuels will result in an elevated risk for wildfires. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for all areas away from the coastal zones through this evening.

Gusty NE winds and critical RH values are expected again Wednesday afternoon and another Fire Danger Statement may be required. A Fire Weather Watch/Red Flag Warning cannot be ruled out, however conditions are currently just shy of reaching criteria. In addition to fire danger, the gusty NE winds may reach Lake Wind Advisory criteria across Lake Moultrie late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Strong high pressure will continue to build from the northwest through the week with mainly dry conditions. The exception will be coastal showers possible Wed-Fri along the SC/GA coast as a weak coastal trough develops.

KEY MESSAGE 2: There is a High Risk of rip currents at all area beaches today and Wednesday.

Increasing NE winds and building swells will result in a High Risk for rip currents at all area beaches today and Wednesday. High Risk for rip currents will likely continue into Thursday at all area beaches.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Prevailing VFR through the 06Z TAF period. Gusty NE winds around 20 to 25 knots will develop shortly after sunrise at all terminals, persisting into the afternoon hours. Gusts will wane with nightfall, however elevated winds around 10 knots are expected tonight.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR, with breezy NE winds Wednesday and Thursday.

MARINE

Persistent moderate NE winds will continue through the week, with seas steadily building. Winds further increase on Tuesday with solid Gales beginning during the afternoon or evening and continue into early Thursday morning during the period of tightest gradient, with the previously issued headlines remaining unchanged. For the Charleston Harbor, currently have strong Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds for Wednesday, though can't rule out a brief period of Gales Wednesday morning with probabilities for reaching 35 knot gusts at 40%. Winds weaken from Gale strength to SCA on Thursday, further weakening below SCA levels throughout the day on Friday. However, seas will take some time to settle below 6 feet into Saturday afternoon along the coast, further into Sunday for the offshore Georgia zone. Models are indicating a second high pressure wedge may form Saturday into Sunday off the northeast coast, though winds do not appear to be as strong as the current system.

Beach erosion and high surf: Beach erosion could impact the beaches Wednesday through Friday as seas build 8-10 feet along the coast. High Surf Advisories have been issued for all beaches from 8 AM Wednesday to 8 AM Thursday, with 5 to 7 foot breaker waves expected.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for GAZ117-119-139-141. High Surf Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Thursday for GAZ117-119-139-141. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ048>051. High Surf Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 8 AM EDT Thursday for SCZ048>051. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ330. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ350-352- 354. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ350-352-354. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ374. Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ374.