textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections have been updated.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) A multi-day coastal flooding event will slowly diminish through the remainder of this week. - 2) Sustained northeast winds will lead to a High Risk for rip currents along our South Carolina and Georgia beaches through Thursday. - 3) Dry and warming conditions will continue through the week before rain chances increase late weekend.

DISCUSSION

.KEY MESSAGE 1: A multi-day coastal flooding event will slowly diminish through the remainder of this week.

The full moon was on 10/26, while the lunar perigee will be on 10/28. For this reason, the astronomical tides will be trending lower the rest of this week, with the morning/early afternoon high tide being the higher of the two tide cycles. Additionally, northeasterly winds are expected to gradually ease, especially towards the end of this week. This will also cause tidal departures to lower.

Charleston Tide Gauge: Moderate coastal flooding is forecasted with the Wednesday and Thursday morning high tide cycles, followed by minor coastal flooding Friday, and maybe even Saturday. Coastal Flood Advisories will be needed.

Fort Pulaski Tide Gauge: Minor coastal flooding is forecasted with the Wednesday morning high tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory will be needed.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Sustained northeast winds will lead to a High Risk for rip currents along our South Carolina and Georgia beaches through Thursday.

The combination of sustained, gusty northeast winds, persistent long-period swell, and continuous wave action will support dangerous rip currents along our beaches. A High Risk for rip currents is in place through Thursday. This enhanced risk could continue through Saturday, October 31, which marks the end of the 2026 surf season and the final routine issuance of the Surf Zone Forecast.

.KEY MESSAGE 3: Dry and warming conditions will continue through the week before rain chances increase late weekend.

High pressure will dominate at the surface through the end of the week while upper-level ridging prevails over the Deep South. The high pressure at the surface and the upper-level ridging will yield a dry forecast through the remainder of the week. Temperatures will steadily warm into the weekend, with highs pushing 80 away from the coastline by Friday. Overnight lows initially in the 50s will warm into the 60s.

A shift in the synoptic pattern is expected this weekend as the high pressure breaks down and a shortwave trough aloft ripples across the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic states this weekend. Rain/thunderstorm chances will increase this weekend and into early next week associated with this upper level feature.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

18Z TAFs: VFR. Winds will ease somewhat late this afternoon, then increase and become gusty late Wednesday morning.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Breezy north-northeast winds are expected at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV each afternoon this week.

MARINE

Rest of Today and Tonight: A tight pressure gradient persists between high pressure wedged inland to the north and weak low pressure near the Bahamas. Elevated winds and seas will continue through tonight, maintaining Small Craft Advisories across all nearshore waters out 20 nm (outside the Charleston Harbor) and offshore GA waters out 60 nm. Expect north-northeast wind gusts of 25 to 30 kt, nearshore seas of 4 to 7 ft, and offshore seas of 7 to 10 ft (highest across Georgia waters).

Extended Marine: The persistent wedge of High pressure inland will maintain elevated NE winds and seas with little improvement through Thursday night. As the gradient eases on Friday, both winds and seas will start to trend lower. The long-duration Small Craft Advisories should start to expire on Friday and Saturday, first for the waters within 20 nm and then the GA waters for 20-60 nm.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Wednesday evening for GAZ217-219- 239-241. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through Wednesday evening for SCZ148>151. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ360. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ362-364. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ384.