textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Key Message #1

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Minor coastal flooding expected along portions of the southeast South Carolina coast with the evening high tide cycles into early next week.

- 2) Mostly dry conditions expected into early next week with above normal temperatures. Increasing rain chances to occur late next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Minor coastal flooding expected along portions of the southeast South Carolina coast with the evening high tide cycles into early next week.

Astronomical influences associated with the new moon (5/16) and lunar perigee (5/17) along with a modest southeasterly onshore flow will help drive elevated tide levels through the weekend, leading to minor coastal flooding along the southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia coast. We hit 7.36 ft MLLW this evening at Charleston. We have a good chance of reaching minor flood again Sunday evening, and a bit more marginal for Monday evening, after which the issues should be over for awhile.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Mostly dry conditions expected into early next week with above normal temperatures. Increasing rain chances to occur late next week.

Surface high pressure will extend across the Southeast through the middle of next week, with ridging building aloft. There could be isolated diurnal convection Sunday, but most locations will likely stay dry due to limited coverage. Temperatures will be warmer than normal. Highs will average in the 85-90F range away from the immediate coast, with mild overnight lows.

There will be better chances for showers and thunderstorms during the latter half of next week. While there is still spread between models, consensus indicates shortwave energy crossing the region with a surface cold front approaching and possibly stalling nearby.

AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV through 0Z Monday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

MARINE

Today and Tonight: A weak/subtle coastal trough along the western periphery of high pressure centered across the Atlantic will result in a southerly wind regime across local waters for the remainder of the day and through the night, with with speeds generally less than 10-15 kt (except in the Charleston Harbor this afternoon). Seas will range between 1-3 ft.

Sunday through Thursday: No marine concerns are expected. High pressure to the east will drive onshore southeasterly flow each day, with wind speeds mostly topping out in the 10-15 knot range. Each afternoon and evening there could be some local enhancement along the land/sea interface with the diurnal sea breeze. Seas should average 2-3 feet through the period.

Rip Currents: The combination of influences from the upcoming new moon cycle and persistent onshore flow will produce an elevated risk of rip currents into early next week. A Moderate Risk of rip currents is in effect at all southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia beaches Sunday and Monday.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.