textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections have been updated.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Above seasonal temperatures and rain-free conditions will prevail throughout the week.

- 2) Breezy with temperatures well-below normal this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Above seasonal temperatures and rain-free conditions will prevail throughout the week.

High pressure has begun to build over the central US today with deep dry northwesterly flow building over the Carolinas. This upper high will slowly expand and drift eastward into the Mid- Atlantic through the end of the week. Dry conditions will prevail with subsidence over the area through at least Friday. Temperatures will be on the warmer side with the strong upper ridge overhead. High temperatures will run well above normal in the upper 80s and possibly a few spots hitting 90. We could easily flirt with daily record highs by the middle part of the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Breezy with temperatures well-below normal this weekend.

A strong cold front will push across southeast Georgia and the SC Lowcountry late Friday night into Saturday morning. Medium range guidance generally agrees that it should be a dry cold front, only sprinkles across portions of the forecast area late Friday night into early Saturday morning. GFS H85 temperatures over Lake Moultrie cool from 17C at 0Z Sat to 8C by 0Z Sun. As a result, temperature will fall well below normal on Sat, with highs ranging around 70 degrees. In addition, north-northeast winds across the region will be breezy, with gusts between 25-30 mph.

Saturday night into Sunday, the center of a 1037 mb high will settle over VA by daybreak Sunday. The sfc high will ridge SW across the Carolinas and Georgia on Sunday. North winds will continue Saturday night into Sunday morning, generally between 10-15 mph with gusts around 20 mph. The north winds will maintain cool llvl thickness across the forecast area. Using a blend of guidance, low temperatures on Sunday are forecast to range from the upper 40s inland to the mid to upper 50s along the coast. Some areas are expected see their coolest temperatures since early May.

As inland sfc ridging continues, gusty northeast winds should remain across the region on Sunday. Lingering cool llvl thicknesses along with some cloud cover across the region should limit heating on Sunday. High temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 60s across the Lowcountry to the low 70s across SE GA. The center of sfc high pressure should shift over off the New England coast on Monday, resulting in winds to weaken and shift from the east. Temperatures across the CWA should warm around 5 degrees over Sunday's readings.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

13/00z TAFs: VFR through 14/00z. Extended Aviation Outlook: There are no concerns.

MARINE

Tuesday through Friday: Overall, fair conditions expected across the coastal waters this week. Generally, winds will remain 10 kts or less with seas around 2 ft.

Friday Night and Saturday: A strong cold front will sweep across the region late Friday night into Saturday morning. Elevated winds, gales possible, and building seas expected through the weekend

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

October 12: KCXM: 86/2014

October 14: KCHS: 88/2024 KCXM: 86/2024 KSAV: 88/2024

October 15: KCHS: 87/2021

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.