textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation section updated for the 0Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Unsettled weather returns Friday night and lingers through early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Unsettled weather returns Friday night and lingers through early next week.

Dry high pressure will briefly rebuild on Friday, then the front will lift back north and stall south of the area Friday night into Saturday morning. In addition, a series of upper level shortwaves will ripple through the Southeast during this period and continue into Sunday. PWATs approaching 1.75-2.0" are expected to advect into the area Saturday through Sunday, providing ample moisture for shower development. Pockets of surface-based instability will support isolated thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon hours across coastal Southeast GA. Total precipitation Friday night through Sunday expected to range from 0.75"-1.5", though a few locations could see amounts in excess of 1.5" if a strong shower or thunderstorms rolls through. Given the prolonged event to reach those rainfall totals, rainfall rates are not currently expected to result in a significant flooding threat.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

0Z TAFs: MVFR ceilings are possible, primarily over KCHS, this evening ahead of a backdoor cold front. A band of showers ahead of the cold front should dissipate as the front dives southward tonight. The TAFs will feature veering winds through the period, generally becoming northeast after FROPA during the pre-dawn hours. Winds will turn from the southeast after a sea breeze Friday afternoon.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Occasional flight restrictions Saturday through Monday as a stalled front brings showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE

Rest of Today and Tonight: A cold front will push through the region this evening, with winds this afternoon out of the southwest shifting to the northeast by daybreak. Gusts this afternoon within the Charleston Harbor will be up to 25 knots and a short duration Small Craft Advisory is in effect through 6 PM. Elsewhere, gusts will likely top out around 20 knots. Conditions will improve through the overnight period as high pressure builds into the region behind the departing cold front.

Friday - Monday: Surface high pressure builds across the southeast region bringing a round of breezy northeasterly winds, though they are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. Winds will decrease in the afternoon bringing the brief return of weaker winds and calm seas through the weekend. As the surface high slides off into the Atlantic Monday into Tuesday, expect winds to swing around to become out of the south-southeast. Ahead of an approaching cold front, the pressure gradient along the coast does get pinched a bit on Monday and Tuesday, leading to some marginally breezy south- southeasterly winds. As the cold front continues to approach, Small Craft Advisories may be needed as wind speeds increase. NBM currently has 50-70% chances for reaching 25 knot gusts across the coastal and offshore South Carolina waters and offshore Georgia waters, dropping to below 40% across coastal Georgia waters.

Rip Currents: Enhanced winds along the lower South Carolina coast coupled with building 2-4 ft swell supports a Moderate Risk for rip currents along the Charleston County beaches for today.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.