textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation section has been updated for the 00z Aviation forecast

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Unseasonably warm temperatures expected through the late week, with scattered showers and a thunderstorm, or two possible on Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Unseasonably warm temperatures expected through the late week, with scattered showers and a thunderstorm, or two possible on Friday.

As a weak cold front continues to track towards the southeastern CONUS, mid-level heights will continue to fall as the front approaches. This front will eventually push offshore on late Friday night. The chances for rain continue to look rather unimpressive as the best forcing remains to the north of the region. There's a chance for the interior counties to witness some isolated showers later this evening and again on Thursday, but most of the region will remain dry. The best chance for some rainfall will be on Friday as the models hint at a weakening band of precipitation moving through the region as the cold front tracks towards the coastline. It's possible to see a couple of isolated thunderstorms as this passes through, however severe weather does not seem to be in the cards on Friday as instability remains rather weak. Following the passage of the cold front, drier air will return into the region with a rain-free forecast in place through early next week.

On another note, temperatures will continue to be unseasonably warm tomorrow and Friday before the cold front passes through the region. Similar to today, afternoon temperatures will reach into the low to mid 80s over the next couple days. These values are around 10 degrees above early November normals and are within a few degrees of records (see climate section below).

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

05/00Z TAFs: Expect VFR conditions to continue through the overnight with light southeasterly winds. Another round of fog and/or low ceilings will likely develop across the terminals ~10/12z with the best chance around JZI and CHS. Localized IFR vsbys/ceilings will be possible right around 11/12Z and some LIFR vsbys/ceilings cannot be ruled out. Have added a TEMPO group at KJZI and KCHS to account for this potential. Once the fog and low ceilings diminish VFR coniditons should return tomorrow with isolated to scattered showers occurring across interior portions of the area.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers, and possibly a couple isolated thunderstorms, could impact the area tomorrow evening and again on Friday. Any flight restrictions should be brief.

MARINE

Through Tonight: Southeasterly flow should generally remain between 10 to 15 kts across the waters through the overnight. Seas will range from 3 to 5 ft, before decreasing to 3 to 4 ft tonight. Therefore, conditions will remain quite tranquil for mariners through the forecast period.

Thursday through Monday: As a weak cold front approaches the waters, conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory conditions through the period. The front will eventually pass offshore on Friday night and no significant wind surge is expected behind it. Expect wind speeds to generally top out ~15 kts with seas peaking 3 to 5 ft.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

November 4: KSAV: 85/2012

November 5: KCXM: 81/1992 KSAV: 85/2003

November 6: KCXM: 81/2003

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

November 4: KCHS: 67/2015 KCXM: 69/1992 KSAV: 71/2003

November 5: KCHS: 69/2003 KCXM: 71/2024 KSAV: 70/2003

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.