textproduct: Charleston

SYNOPSIS

High pressure builds across the area through Tuesday, followed by a cold front Wednesday night. High pressure then returns heading into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/

Tonight: High pressure will continue to build into the region this evening and overnight. Wind gusts will wane early evening, but strong cold air advection through the night will support northwest winds in the 10-15 mph range this evening, then around 10 mph from the north during the second half of the night. Conditions will remain dry and high clouds will begin to clear from west to east, setting up a much colder night. Low temperatures are expected to be in the upper 20s well inland to low/mid 30s along the coastline. These temperatures combined with a steady wind will likely yield wind chill values in the mid-upper 20s after midnight. While not cold enough for a Cold Weather Advisory, these temperatures are significantly colder than observed the last several days.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Dry and seasonally cool temperatures prevail heading into the new week as sfc high pressure builds overhead. With the aid of northerly winds and CAA, only have highs rising into the lower 50s across the area. Overnight lows will also feel quite chilly, as temperatures range from the upper 20s inland to mid 30s along the coast. Winds shift to the southwest by Wednesday, allowing temperatures to moderate back into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Upper level ridging digs across the Ohio River Valley Wednesday, with an attendant sfc cold front also pushing eastward during this time. As noted in the previous discussion, this boundary is progged to impact the area Wednesday. While rain chances could begin as early as Wednesday morning, expect the better probabilities (20-30%) to occur during the afternoon/evening. Nonetheless, given the lack of upper level moisture, not expecting to see much in the way of meaningful rainfall. Rather, the more notable impacts look to occur Thursday - more on this in the section below.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Will see a resurgence of CAA Thursday in the wake of FROPA, limiting highs into the upper 40s to lower 50s, which is certainly well below seasonal norms. In addition to this, expect west-northwesterly winds to become fairly breezy. Currently have gusts between 25 to 30 MPH possible for much of the area Thursday afternoon.

Breezy conditions then subside by Friday as sfc high pressure builds across the southeast. Otherwise, look for dry conditions to prevail into Saturday, with temperatures slowly moderating back into the 50s.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 00Z Tuesday. Northwest winds gusting up to 10-15 kt will weaken during the next couple hours, then remain below 10 kt under few high clouds during the second half of the night. Winds then turn northeast and remain in the 5-10 kt range late morning into early afternoon Monday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

MARINE

Tonight: High pressure will continue to build across the region in wake of a cold front departing well to the east. The pressure gradient will remain tight along the Southeast Coast this evening with cold air advection persisting across local waters for much of the night. Northwest winds gusting upwards to 25-30 kt will remain common across nearshore SC/GA waters and outer GA waters during the first half of the night. Winds will eventually turn more north and start to decrease later tonight as high pressure becomes closer centered to the region and results in a weaker pressure gradient across local waters. Seas will be slower to respond, but should generally range between 2-4 ft across most nearshore waters and 4-6 ft across the outer fringes of AMZ350 and outer Georgia waters prior to subsiding late night/around daybreak Monday. Small Craft Advisories will remain in effect for nearshore and outer Georgia waters through the night (outside the Charleston Harbor).

Monday Onward: Winds continue to weaken Monday as sfc high pressure builds overhead, allowing tranquil marine conditions to prevail through mid-week. The next chance for Small Craft Advisories will be Thursday and Thursday night as winds increase behind another cold front.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ350-352-354- 374.