textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Aviation section has been updated for the 00z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Cold temperatures with very low wind chills across the SC Lowcountry and southeast Georgia tonight into Monday morning.

- 2) A cold front will bring rain showers to the South Carolina Lowcountry and southeast Georgia late Tuesday night into Wednesday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Cold temperatures with very low wind chills across the SC Lowcountry and southeast Georgia tonight into Monday morning.

Visible satellite this afternoon indicates that the majority of the snowfall from last night has melted. There appears snow on the ground along a line from Millhaven, GA southeast across Furman, SC to Ricetown, SC. Some snow also appears on satellite across portions of northern Dorchester and Berkeley Counties. The remaining snowpack should provide little impact on overnight temperatures. Using a blend of temperatures, lows are generally expected to range in the teens to low 20s. The cold temperatures combined with northwest winds around 5 mph is expected to result in wind chill values in the teens. A Cold Weather Advisory will remain in effect from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM Monday. Given the ongoing melting and forecast cold temperatures tonight, the risk of black ice from Screven to Allendale counties south to Beaufort county has been highlighted in a Special Weather Statement.

Monday night, cloud cover should gradually increase from the west with light to calm winds. Temperatures are forecast to cool into the mid 20s. Given light winds, wind chill values should remain above 20 degrees.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front will bring rain showers to the South Carolina Lowcountry and southeast Georgia late Tuesday night into Wednesday night.

A positively tilted long-wave trough will approach the forecast area Tuesday night, passing to the east by Wednesday morning. At the sfc, low pressure is forecast to develop along a cold front, tracking across the Southeast U.S. during the mid-week. This system should tap into deep moisture sourced over the Gulf, supporting a thick band of rain showers. Numerous to widespread showers should develop along and ahead of the cold front on Wednesday, departing by sunrise Thursday. Temperature during the passage of the cold front are forecast to support only plain rain. Storm total QPF should be in the 0.1-0.25" range.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 00z Tuesday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: A cold front may bring flight restrictions Wednesday, mainly due to rain showers.

MARINE

Tonight into Monday, marine zones will remain between a departing Nor'Easter and high pressure tonight, with high pressure arriving on Monday. Small Craft Advisories across the CHS and nearshore waters will end by late tonight as winds and seas subside. The outer GA waters will continue to experience seas as high as 6 ft through the daylight hours on Monday.

Monday Night through Thursday: Surface High pressure will be over FL on Tuesday, shifting offshore Tuesday night into Wednesday. A cold front will approach from the west on Wednesday, quickly moving through and then offshore Wednesday night. High pressure builds in from the distant west on Thursday. Small Craft Advisories will be needed for portions of our waters Wednesday night into Thursday.

CLIMATE

Record Low Temperatures:

February 1: (New record low set all stations Sunday morning.) KCHS: 21/1977 KCXM: 23/1900 KSAV: 23/1977

February 2: KCHS: 19/1980 KCXM: 17/1917 KSAV: 18/1917

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

February 1: KCHS: 38/1980 KCXM: 36/1900 KSAV: 38/1900

Record Snowfall:

January 31: KCHS: 0.6/1977 (Broken, 0.7 observed yesterday)

February 1: KCHS: none established (Broken, 0.4 observed today)

EQUIPMENT

The KCLX radar is operational, but could go down at any time. Additional repairs are needed.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for GAZ087-088- 099>101-114>119-137>141. SC...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Monday for SCZ040-042>045- 047>052. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Monday for AMZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ374.