textproduct: Charleston

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will extend across the region for much of the week. A cold front will push offshore Thursday morning with another cold front possibly moving through late in the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Today: Aloft, the pattern will be broadly cyclonic as low amplitude troughing covers the southeast and south-central CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will start the day stretching from New England, across the Southeast, and into the lower MS Valley. This high pressure will then persist across the Southeast and settle nearly right on top of the forecast area by the end of the day. With plentiful dry air (precipitable water values ~0.25") and no forcing, the forecast is dry. The main change today will be the long awaited scattering any lingering low stratus this morning followed by full sun in the afternoon. While the return of the sun will certainly be welcomed, it does not mean it will be a warm day. Instead low- level thickness values support another very chilly day. Forecast highs are for upper 40s across southeast SC and upper 40s and low 50s for southeast GA. Such values would be on the order of 15 degrees below normal.

Tonight: With high pressure on top of the forecast area and clear skies, we should see good radiational cooling conditions tonight. This will yield lows solidly in the upper 20s inland, with a transition zone from low to mid to upper 30s as you get closer to the immediate coastline.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Dry high pressure will prevail through the period.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Guidance has continued to delay the passage of the strong cold front, now showing it moving through late Sunday and maintaining relatively warm temps over the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

The 06z TAF period begins with MVFR conditions at KCHS and KJZI while KSAV sits in an open area with VFR conditions. Northerly flow will help to push a large area of mostly MVFR stratus into the area over the next few hours which should then persist through sunrise. Model guidance suggests that ceilings could lower into the IFR range for a few hours generally between 12-15z, mostly at KCHS and KJZI. We should finally see the stratus scatter out and conditions return to VFR first at KSAV in the mid to late morning hours, then at KCHS and KJZI by midday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

MARINE

Today through tonight: The day will start with north-northeast winds solidly in the 15-20 knot range, with gusts into the low 20 knot range. Wind speeds will then steadily diminish through the day, becoming 5-10 knots by sunset for much of the local waters. Overnight, winds will be around 5 knots out of the northwest and becoming more westerly with time. Seas will start off the morning in the 3-5 knot range, with a diminishing area of up to 6 ft in the Charleston County waters and the outer GA waters. Seas will then gradually decline through the overnight, becoming mostly 3-4 ft by sunrise Wednesday. Lingering Small Craft Advisory conditions for the Charleston County waters and outer GA waters will come to an end by mid morning.

Brief Small Craft Advisory conditions expected for most waters late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ350- 374.