textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections have been updated.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Dry conditions and below normal temperatures will continue into early next week.

- 2) Strong northeast flow this weekend and into early next week will result in several coastal hazards including tidal flooding, rip currents, high surf, and beach erosion.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry conditions and below normal temperatures will continue into early next week.

High pressure will continue to be the primary weather feature in control across the Southeast through this weekend and into early next week. The high gets reinforced Friday through Saturday as a 1035+ mb high settles in across the New England and provides a fresh shot of cooler than normal air. The warmest days will come today and Thursday with widespread mid to upper 70s, only 2-3 degrees below normal. Then for Friday, low 70s will be more common followed by upper 60s to low 70s for Saturday. By Sunday we should start to see temperatures moderate more into the low to mid 70s, continuing into early next week. It should be noted that persistent and gusty northeast winds will make it feel even a bit cooler over the weekend.

Regarding low temperatures, Thursday morning will likely be the coolest thanks to good radiational cooling conditions anticipated tonight. We should see widespread low to mid 40s tomorrow morning, with the potential for an isolated location to reach 39 briefly. Through the weekend, morning low will still be below normal but persistent northeast flow will certainly prevent ideal radiational cooling and keep things a bit mixed, especially along the coast. The result should yield more of a inland/coast gradient with the coastal corridor remaining several degrees higher than inland locations. Overall, widespread upper 40s to low 50s is expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Strong northeast flow this weekend and into early next week will result in several coastal hazards including tidal flooding, rip currents, high surf, and beach erosion.

High pressure will settle in across New England Friday into Saturday, driving an enhanced pressure gradient along the Southeast coast this weekend and into early next week. This setup will yield strong northeast flow across the area, with the potential for coastal hazards to extend into at least early next week.

Coastal Flooding: Astronomical tides will continue to rise the rest of this week, this weekend, and into next week as we approach the upcoming lunar perigee (10/28) and the next full moon (10/26). In fact, the highest astronomical tides for all of 2026 will come next Tuesday (10/27) and Wednesday (10/28) when Charleston peaks at ~6.9 ft MLLW and Fort Pulaski peaks at 8.9 ft MLLW. We are already seeing the effect of a prolonged period of elevated northeast flow along the coast as current tidal departures are running in the 1.5-2.0 ft range. With another period of strong northeast flow on the way this weekend, these large tidal departures will persist and start to overlap with increasing astronomical tides, providing increased probabilities of seeing a multi-day coastal flooding event for the entire coast. Minor coastal flooding could begin as early as the upcoming late afternoon high tide cycle, and this minor flooding potential will continue through the rest of the week. Over the weekend and into next week, the potential for moderate to even major coastal flooding will increase at Charleston. At Fort Pulaski, minor to moderate coastal flooding will be possible during this time period. Of note, the morning high tide cycle will be the dominant high tide of the day.

Other coastal hazards: Strong northeast flow and increased wave action will support an elevated rip current risk over the weekend and into early next week. Also, high surf with breaking wave heights of 5 ft or higher will be possible and High Surf Advisories could be needed. The combination of elevated tides, increased wave action, and persistent gusty northeast winds will almost certainly produce at least minor beach erosion.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 18z Thursday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will continue. Gusty northeast winds are expected this weekend.

MARINE

Through tonight: Northerly winds will be strongest through the afternoon with speeds in the 15-20 knot range and a few gusts to 25 knots possible in the outer waters. Overnight, speeds are expected to come down more into the 10-15 knot range. Seas will remain elevated with 3-5 ft out to 20 nm and 5-6 ft beyond 20 nm. The Small Craft Advisory for the outer GA waters remains in effect.

The main event for the local waters will come this weekend and into early next week. As high pressure strengthens to the northeast, the pressure gradient will tighten across the local waters and yield an extended period of strong northeast flow. The potential for gales will increase notably beginning Friday night and will continue through Sunday night. Strong gale conditions, with gusts of 40-45 knots, will be possible as well especially across the outer waters beyond 20 nm. Gale Watches and Warnings will very likely be needed for all waters outside of Charleston Harbor.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ384.