textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Aviation section has been updated for the 00z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Rain chances will increase tomorrow through the weekend, though no significant impacts are expected at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain chances will increase tomorrow through the weekend, though no significant impacts are expected at this time.

A more unsettled pattern arrives tomorrow through the weekend, yielding some very beneficial rainfall to the forecast area. A surface low tracking across the Tennessee and Ohio River Valley could bring periods of isolated to scattered showers and/or thunderstorms tomorrow into Thursday. However, instability remains very limited, thus thunderstorms that develop will likely be weak and there is a low potential for significant impacts.

Another system could affect the region Friday into the weekend, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms. Similarly, the risk of hazardous weather remains low at this time.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

00Z TAFs: A round of decaying showers and thunderstorms could move in from the west and impact the TAF sites in the 10-15z timeframe on Wednesday. There is potential for flight restrictions, particularly in ceilings. Guidance indicates ceilings could drop to MVFR or even IFR levels. Opted to include no lower than MVFR at KCHS & KJZI for now. At KSAV, confidence was not high enough to include any prevailing restrictions at this time. Conditions are expected to return to VFR at all sites by midday. In addition, southwest winds could become gusty late morning into the afternoon.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions likely this upcoming weekend as another system approaches the region, yielding another round of showers and thunderstorms at all terminals.

MARINE

Through Tonight: High pressure will prevail over the marine waters through the remainder of the afternoon, yielding northeasterly flow. A weak boundary will push over the area late this afternoon and into this evening, shifting winds to the southeast. Conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria, however gusts could approach 20 knots at times this afternoon.

Extended Marine: A front will push through the region Wednesday afternoon, lingering in the vicinity of the marine waters into the end of the week. Conditions Wednesday afternoon could approach Small Craft Advisory criteria as southwesterly winds gust upwards of 25 knots. The current forecast keeps gusts just shy of advisory levels and therefore no headlines have been issued at this time. Conditions will remain well below SCA levels Thursday and Friday, deteriorating this weekend as a stronger system impacts the forecast area. Small Craft Advisories are likely this weekend across some of the marine zones as low pressure develops off the SE coastline.

Rip Currents: Higher-period swell and gusty S/SW winds will result in a moderate risk of rip currents for all southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia beaches tomorrow (Wednesday).

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.