textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Aviation Section has been updated for the 04/00z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Warm temperatures will continue, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through Saturday.

- 2) A cold front will bring increased rain chances Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, followed by cooler temperatures.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Warm temperatures will continue, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through Saturday.

Saturday is expected to bring another warm day with highs rising into the low to mid 80s away from the immediate coast. Without the benefit of the subtle coastal trough moving onshore like today, Saturday is expected to bring far less coverage of showers and storms. Instead, the bulk of the activity is expected to be much further inland. The best chance for isolated to scattered diurnal convection will be across the interior counties including Tattnall, Candler, Evans, Bulloch, Jenkins, Screven, and Allendale. Much like today, no severe threat is expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front will bring increased rain chances Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, followed by cooler temperatures.

The mid-levels will consist of a broad trough over the eastern half of the U.S. Sunday and Monday. At the surface, a cold front will be approaching our region from the west and northwest on Sunday. The front will usher a plume of deep moisture from the Gulf into our region. PWATs should peak ~1.7" which is above the 90% mark for CHS sounding climatology, per SPC. The combination of lift and moisture should generate some rain across our area from Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. While there remain some differences in QPF amounts between the models, the general consensus is storm total below 0.3". So this won't be enough rain to put much of a dent in the drought or cause flooding issues. Otherwise, POPs generally peak in the chance to likely category. As far as the thunderstorms potential, there is minimal instability in place ahead of the front. So there could be a few rumbles of thunder ahead of and with the front, but the severe risk is very low. The front will move through Sunday night, followed by drier conditions by later Monday. As for high temperatures, ahead of the front they'll remain well above normal, generally in the 80s, except cooler at/near the beaches. Behind the front, temperatures drop to near seasonal levels on Monday, then generally continuing through the middle of next week. Temperatures rise towards the end of next week.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

04/00z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 05/00z. Some shallow ground could develop near KSAV just before daybreak and possibly allow for a brief period of MVFR vsbys, but no significant impacts are expected. The main focus for isolated/scattered showers/tstms should remain west of the terminals for Saturday afternoon.

Extended Aviation Outlook: A cold front will bring higher probabilities for flight restrictions Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, followed by gusty northerly winds on Monday.

MARINE

Through Saturday Night: Overall, conditions should remain pretty quiet and below Small Craft Advisory thresholds. Winds will continue to be primarily onshore with speeds mostly topping out in the 10-15 knot range. Seas are expected to be 2-4 feet across the nearshore waters and 3-5 feet across the outer waters.

Sunday through Wednesday: A cold front will then approach from the west and northwest on Sunday, moving through the waters Sunday night. Expect a surge in winds and seas behind the front. Small Craft Advisories should be needed across most of our coastal waters Monday, and could persist across portions of our waters into the middle of next week.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.