textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections have been updated.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Unsettled weather returns tonight and lingers through early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Unsettled weather returns tonight and lingers through early next week.

Dry high pressure will build across the area in wake of a stalling front offshore and to the south today, setting up dry/cooler conditions within a light north/northeast wind through late afternoon. The front will then lift back north tonight, possibly stalling over or near the area through Saturday morning, allowing for deep moisture return (PWATs 1.5 to 1.75 inches) across Southeast Georgia and into southern Southeast South Carolina during the weekend and into early next week prior to a cold front arriving late Monday. The combination of moisture return, isentropic lift and a series of h5 shortwaves rippling across a nearly stationary front will promote scattered to numerous showers late tonight through Monday with pockets of instability also supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorms primarily during daylight hours. Widespread clouds and ongoing showers should limit overall severe weather potential, but a stronger thunderstorm can not be ruled out each afternoon. Greatest precip coverage is anticipated Sunday and Monday, when widespread precip activity is possible as more notable h5 shortwave energy arrives late weekend along with increased forcing associated with the passing cold front on Monday.

Total precipitation Friday night through Monday is expected to range from 0.75 to 1.5 inches, though a few locations could exceed these amounts should showers and/or thunderstorms become focused near the boundary/nearly stationary front for longer durations late weekend. However, given the prolonged event to reach these rainfall totals, precip rates are not currently expected to result in a significant flooding threat.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 06Z Saturday. However, there could be a brief window of TEMPO MVFR cigs associated with a backdoor front arriving at CHS/JZI terminals between 06-08Z early this morning. Based on latest obs, cigs remain just above flight restrictions so have maintained VFR.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Occasional flight restrictions Saturday through Monday as a stalled front brings showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE

High pressure will quickly pass to our north today and tonight, causing winds to veer and ease, while seas subside. A front is forecasted to lift north this weekend, generally bringing a light to moderate breeze. A cold front will sweep through early next week, bringing a surge of winds and elevated seas, mainly Monday night into Tuesday. Small Craft Advisories will be needed for portions of our waters during this time period. Conditions improve by the middle of next week.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.