textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections have been updated.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Temperatures build to near-record warmth on Friday.

- 2) A dry cold front brings cooler temperatures this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Temperatures build to near-record warmth on Friday.

As a broad ridge axis builds/expands across Texas, the region falls under the eastern periphery of the upper level feature with geopotential heights remaining fairly steady. At the surface, a high pressure will be in the western Atlantic, with temperatures expected to rise each day as warm 850mb temperatures overspread the region. Afternoon highs in the lower to mid 70s are expected for Wednesday, upper 70s to mid 80s on Thursday, and near-record upper 80s to lower 90s on Friday, 5-10 degrees cooler along the coast. Precipitation chances look to remain slim given the synoptic scale descent aloft.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A dry cold front brings cooler temperatures this weekend

A dry cold front is expected to move through late Friday night into Saturday, ushering in significantly cooler temperatures. Afternoon highs behind the front on Saturday look to remain in the mid 60s across southeast South Carolina, rising to the mid 70s across portions of southeast Georgia. Latest round of models have probabilities for lows in the upper 30s for the northern interior counties remains below 40%, including Berkeley, Dorchester, and Colleton. High temperatures remain a few degrees below normal on Sunday in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with the thermostat set to rise again into the beginning of next week.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

The 00z TAF period begins with mostly VFR ceilings around the area. These VFR ceilings should stick around through the night and much of Wednesday morning before scattering and lifting Wednesday afternoon. A few periods of MVFR ceilings remains possible through the early morning hours, but mostly VFR is expected.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR. Expect gusty winds behind a dry cold front on Saturday.

MARINE

Tonight: Recent buoy observations indicate that winds are slowly starting to come down from the peak with gusts mostly topping out around 30 knots. Therefore the Gale Warnings have been canceled and replaced with Small Craft Advisories. Also, the Small Craft Advisory for Charleston Harbor has been canceled since gusts are now mostly around 20 knots. Conditions will gradually improve through the overnight, but remain solidly in the Small Craft Advisory range.

High pressure building into the region will cause winds and waves to trend lower tomorrow, though, elevated waves will persist over the GA waters beyond 20 nm into Wednesday night. A dry cold front is expected to move through Friday night into Saturday, bringing near gale to possibly gale conditions to all of our coastal waters early Saturday morning into Sunday. Waves along the coast may peak in the 5-6 foot range, rising into the 8-10 foot range near the 20NM mark, with waters near the 60 NM marker near 12 feet.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

March 27: KCHS: 87/2021 KCXM: 81/2021 KSAV: 89/2021

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ352. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ354. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Wednesday night for AMZ374.