textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Aviation Section has been updated for the 14/12z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Dry weather and above-normal temperatures expected to continue through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry weather and above-normal temperatures expected to continue through the weekend.

No significant changes to the forecast with prominent ridging aloft and subtropical high pressure at the surface. This setup will yield a rain-free forecast with well-above average temperatures across the region for the next 7 days. Temperatures will range into the mid 80s to low 90s today through the weekend. These values would be on the order of 10 degrees (or more) above normal. High temperatures could approach the daily records this afternoon, with the best chances of reaching records late this week and into the weekend (see Climate section below). The beaches will feel considerably cooler (possibly 10 to 15 degrees cooler) with onshore flow and water temperatures remaining in the mid-60s. The combination of well above normal temperatures and no rainfall will only serve to further worsen ongoing Extreme (D3) drought conditions highlighted by the U.S. Drought Monitor.

AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

14/12z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Shallow ground fog at the terminals will quickly mix out after daybreak. VFR will prevail for much of the 14/12z TAF period. Another round of shallow ground fog could occur at the terminals during the early morning hours Wednesday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: There are no concerns.

MARINE

The forecast philosophy remains the same with no major concerns through Saturday. Bermuda high pressure centered well offshore will maintain its influence through the week with a broad southerly flow regime prevailing. This pattern favors sea breeze surges this afternoon, mainly along the land/sea interface and Charleston Harbor.

Rip Currents: Today: A low risk for rip currents was maintained for all beaches for today given slightly lower swell heights are anticipated. With sea breeze enhanced winds likely at the beaches with ongoing 10 second periods, the situation is very close to tipping into the moderate risk range. The situation will be monitored throughout the day and an upgrade to a moderate risk may eventually be needed.

Wednesday: Slightly higher swell heights are poised to arrive Wednesday with ongoing periods of around 10 seconds, particularly along the Georgia and far southern South Carolina beaches. A moderate risk for rip currents was highlighted for all beaches even though local rip current scores are running right around the low/moderate risk threshold.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

April 14: KSAV: 90/1922

April 16: KSAV: 92/1967

April 17: KCHS: 91/1967 KCXM: 86/2006 KSAV: 95/1967

April 18: KCHS: 92/1967 KSAV: 93/1967

April 19: KCHS: 91/1995 KCXM: 90/1917 KSAV: 92/1968

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

April 19: KCHS: 66/1975 KCXM: 70/2002 KSAV: 69/1880

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.