textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections have been updated.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Warming temperatures with dry conditions through Friday. Rain chances will gradually increase Saturday through early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Warming temperatures with dry conditions through Friday. Rain chances will gradually increase Saturday through early next week.

Satellite water vapor currently shows a well-defined closed low north of the Bahamas along with a large ridge from the Southern Plains to the Southeast U.S. Forecast soundings indicate a strong subsidence inversion centered at H8 across the forecast area today. Today's forecast will feature dry weather with highs around 90 degrees.

On Friday, the forecast area will remain between a closed low over central FL and a H5 ridge axis running west to east across NC. Forecast soundings indicate a dry BL with around a 15 degree dewpoint depression at the sfc. In addition, forecast soundings show shallow lapse rates between 800-500 mb. The forecast will remain dry. However, some convection sourced from the Midlands may drift southeast during the evening hours, but should dissipate before reaching the forecast area. High temperatures should generally range in the low to mid 90s.

Saturday through early next week: The mid-levels will consist of a closed Low over FL Saturday morning. It'll shift into the Gulf Saturday afternoon and remain there on Sunday. It's expected to gradually weaken Sunday night into Monday, and maybe dissipate on Tuesday. Broad surface troughing should spread across the Southeast U.S. during this time period. The flow will usher plenty of moisture into the region, with PWATs rising to ~2". Additionally, temperatures will be a few degrees above normal. This will cause rain and thunderstorm chances to gradually increase each day. POPs should generally be in the chance category Saturday through Monday, then rising to the likely category on Tuesday. The potential for widespread flooding or severe weather is low.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

6Z TAFs: VFR. Light northeast winds will remain across the terminals this morning. Winds should turn from the east-southeast around 19z following the passage of a sea breeze.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Increasing rain chances could bring occasional flight restrictions Saturday into next week.

MARINE

Today and tonight: Ridging high pressure will gradually weaken across the marine zones, reducing the pressure gradient. Winds and seas should gradually diminish through the period. Northeast winds are forecast to range between 10 to 15 kts today, decreasing to 10 kts or less tonight. Seas may begin the day between 3 to 5 ft, decreasing to 2 to 3 ft by Friday morning.

Saturday through Monday: Expect tranquil winds and seas. Sustained winds will generally be 10 kt or less while seas are in the 2-3 ft range. Though, showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase during this time period.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.