textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections have been updated.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Hot and humid conditions are expected to persist along portions of the coast today. Heat index values will be most elevated along the southeast Georgia coast and a Heat Advisory is in effect for McIntosh County.

- 2) Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the southeast Georgia coast this afternoon. A couple of strong to severe storms will be possible into the evening hours, especially further south near the Altamaha River.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Hot and humid conditions are expected to persist along portions of the coast today. Heat index values will be most elevated along the southeast Georgia coast and a Heat Advisory is in effect for McIntosh County.

A noticeable airmass change will take place today for much of southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina. In fact, precipitable water values are progged to drop to near one inch across far inland areas including Allendale, inland Colleton, inland Dorchester, and northern Berkeley counties. However, further south along the southeast Georgia coast dewpoints will remain elevated in the mid to upper 70s. The portion of the coast from Beaufort County south will see persistent heat index values around 105, with up to 110 down near the Altamaha. Therefore, a Heat Advisory is in effect for McIntosh County.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the southeast Georgia coast this afternoon. A couple of strong to severe storms will be possible into the evening hours, especially further south near the Altamaha River.

A boundary, primarily of the moisture variety, will continue to sit across the forecast area today. The boundary will generally run along and south of I-16 through the Savannah River entrance. North of the boundary, dewpoints will fall into the low to mid 60s while south of the boundary there should be enough moisture pooling along the Georgia coast to support isolated to scattered convective development. The near storm environment will be similar to Wednesday with plenty of DCAPE (>1,000 J/kg) and 25-30 knots of mid-level flow. This should be sufficient to create a low end risk of a strong to severe storm along the Georgia coast, with the main threat being damaging wind gusts. A small portion of the southeast Georgia coast remains in the Marginal Risk area of SPC's Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook. Storm activity shouldn't linger too long into the evening, and storm motion should push storms out into the coastal waters where a few strong gusts will be possible.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

The 12z TAF period begins with VFR conditions at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV. VFR conditions will then generally prevail through the entire TAF period. The only real forecast issue will once again be the potential for thunderstorms near KSAV this afternoon. Current thinking is that most of the thunderstorm activity will be to the east along the coast or to the south near the Altamaha. Therefore, we will not mention any thunder in the TAF for now.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Primarily VFR. Less thunderstorm coverage is expected through Friday before coverage increases this over the weekend.

MARINE

Today and Tonight: A weak stationary front will linger in the vicinity of the marine waters today. Variable winds are expected this morning, generally around 10 knots. Winds will shift to the SW late this afternoon into tonight. Seas will average 2 to 3 ft.

Friday through Tuesday: The aforementioned stationary front will linger into the start of weekend before a stronger front moves through late this weekend. Wind gusts could approach 25 knots across the waters on Sunday, associated with the front. Small Craft Advisories could be required late Sunday into Monday.

CLIMATE

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

August 1: KCHS: 81/1999 KCXM: 86/1999 KSAV: 79/2020

August 2: KCHS: 79/2022 KCXM: 84/1999 KSAV: 80/1886

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ240-241. SC...None. MARINE...None.