textproduct: Charleston
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
All sections.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) Rain chances will increase later this week.
- 2) Afternoon heat index values could climb into the 105 to 110 degree range across the I-95 corridor Friday and Saturday.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain chances will increase later this week.
Fairly strong mid to upper level ridging will continue into Wednesday, with the resulting subsidence maintaining mostly rain-free conditions. The surface high to our north will gradually shift east into the western Atlantic, with a warm and moist southerly flow developing. This will bring a more typical summertime pattern to the area Thursday into the weekend. A weak cold front is forecast to approach the area Friday, then stall over the area this weekend. This will bring an increase in mainly diurnal convection, though with a nearby boundary, convection could continue through the overnight hours as well. There could be enough instability to support a few strong/severe thunderstorms during each afternoon, primarily Friday through Sunday.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Afternoon heat index values could climb into the 105 to 110 degree range across the I-95 corridor Friday and Saturday.
An increasingly moist airmass will advect into the area Friday and Saturday as southerly flow develops. Dewpoints will surge into the mid 70s across coastal counties each afternoon, particularly after the sea breeze develops. Pre-frontal compression ahead of the cold front will likely push temps well into the 90s both days, though Saturday looks the hottest. We could see a couple hours of 105-110 degree heat indices Friday and Saturday afternoons, mainly along the I-95 corridor. Heat Advisories are possible.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through the 18Z TAF period.
Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals. However, brief flight restrictions are possible with afternoon showers and/or thunderstorms Thursday through Sunday.
MARINE
A very typical summertime pattern is anticipated Wednesday through early next week. Prevailing southerly winds will be enhanced a bit each afternoon near the coast as a sea breeze develops.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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