textproduct: Charleston

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will extend across the region for much of the week. A cold front will push offshore Thursday morning with another cold front possibly moving through late in the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Today: Aloft, the pattern will be broadly cyclonic as low amplitude troughing covers the southeast and south-central CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will start the day stretching from New England, across the Southeast, and into the lower MS Valley. This high pressure will then persist across the Southeast and settle nearly right on top of the forecast area by the end of the day. With plentiful dry air (precipitable water values ~0.25") and no forcing, the forecast is dry. The main change today will be the long awaited scattering any lingering low stratus this morning followed by full sun in the afternoon. While the return of the sun will certainly be welcomed, it does not mean it will be a warm day. Instead low- level thickness values support another very chilly day. Forecast highs are for upper 40s across southeast SC and upper 40s and low 50s for southeast GA. Such values would be on the order of 15 degrees below normal.

Tonight: With high pressure on top of the forecast area and clear skies, we should see good radiational cooling conditions tonight. This will yield lows solidly in the upper 20s inland, with a transition zone from low to mid to upper 30s as you get closer to the immediate coastline.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Dry high pressure will prevail through the period.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Guidance has continued to delay the passage of the strong cold front, now showing it moving through late Sunday and maintaining relatively warm temps over the weekend.

AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

The 12z TAF period begins with widespread MVFR stratus across the forecast area including KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV. The main forecast challenge will be timing when the stratus will finally scatter out and conditions return to VFR. Based on the solid appearance of the stratus on satellite imagery it will likely take some time. Current thinking is it will first occur at KSAV by the late morning, followed by KCHS and KJZI in the early afternoon.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

MARINE

Winds and seas have subsided enough to cancel the Small Craft Advisory for the South Santee-Edisto Beach nearshore and Georgia offshore legs.

Through Tonight: Winds will steadily diminish through the day, becoming 5-10 knots by sunset for much of the local waters. Overnight, winds will be around 5 knots out of the northwest and becoming more westerly with time. Seas will start off the morning in the 3-5 ft range and lower slowly through tonight.

Wednesday through Saturday: Brief Small Craft Advisory conditions expected for most waters late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.