textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Aviation Section has been updated for the 06Z TAF issuance. All Key Messages and sections have been updated.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Quiet weather and warming temperatures through Monday.

- 2) A strong backdoor cold front will yield breezy winds and cooler conditions mid-week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Quiet weather and warming temperatures through Monday.

Sfc high pressure continues to prevail overhead through Monday afternoon, keeping conditions quiet across our area. With the aid of mostly sunny skies and southwesterly flow, will also see afternoon highs remain roughly 10 degrees above normal. As a result, have temperatures forecast to warm into the mid to upper 80s, with perhaps a few locations across interior southeast Georgia taking a shot at 90 degrees Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A strong backdoor cold front will yield breezy winds and cooler conditions mid-week.

A strong backdoor cold front will push through the region Monday night/Tuesday morning, resulting in breezy winds and cooler temperatures in it's wake. While highs in the 60s to lower 70s Tuesday and Wednesday may feel quite notable compared to days past, these temperatures will actually push us closer to seasonal norms. Precipitation with the aforementioned front looks to remain fairly minimal, as PoPs remain capped near 30% Tuesday night and Wednesday. Outside of this, the main concern with FROPA will be breezy winds, with latest NBM probabilities of seeing gusts greater than 25 MPH near 60-65% across our coastal counties. Otherwise, look above normal temperatures to return by the end of the week as another high pressure system builds overhead.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions will remain at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 06Z Monday. As temperatures peak during the early to mid afternoon, mixing heights may increase to near 5 kft, yielding some gusts in the low 20 kts from the SW. A weak sea breeze may cross the terminals late this afternoon, with a slight wind shift from the south. Gusts should end around sunset.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR through Monday. A backdoor cold front will push through the terminals Monday evening into Tuesday morning bringing showers and thunderstorms. In the wake of the front on Tuesday, winds will shift to the NE and gust 20 to 25 knots.

MARINE

Today and Monday: High pressure should generally support southwest winds between 10 to 15 kts with gusts around 20 kts. Wave heights should range between 3-4 ft.

Guidance remain consistent with the overall timing and placement of a backdoor cold front push across the marine zones late Monday. In the wake the front, the pressure gradient is forecast to increase to 4-5 mbs Monday night into midday Tuesday. Winds across the Atlantic waters, outside the Charleston Harbor, are forecast to turn from the NE and strengthen to around gales during the pre-dawn hours Tuesday morning. Gale gusts are possible until around midday Tuesday. A Gale Watch could be needed for the SC and GA Atlantic waters. In addition, wave heights are forecast to peak on Tuesday, ranging from 6-9 ft within 20 NM and 9-11 ft beyond 20 NM. Small Craft Advisory conditions are forecast in the Charleston Harbor, with NE gusts of 25 knots.

On Wednesday, a ridge of high pressure should result in decreasing winds across the coastal waters. As a result, wave heights should gradually diminish, however, 6 ft seas may linger over the outer GA waters into Wednesday. Conditions should continue to improve into Thursday.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

March 22: KCHS: 88/2011

March 23: KCHS: 87/1995

March 27: KCHS: 87/2021 KCXM: 81/2021 KSAV: 89/2021

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.