textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Aviation Section was updated to reflect the 12Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Dry conditions expected through the weekend and into early next week.

- 2) Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the South Carolina coast with evening high tides through Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry conditions expected through the weekend and into early next week.

High pressure will dominate over the forecast area today, yielding clear skies and high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Dew points today are forecast to drop into the 40s, resulting in RH values as low as 25% across far inland locations and closer to 35% along the coastal counties. Even though RH values will be at or close to critical values wind speeds are only forecast to top out around 10 mph. Therefore, no fire weather products will be issued at this time.

Quiet weather conditions will persist through the weekend and early next week as high pressure extends across the area. Temperatures will trend on the warmer side of normal, with highs averaging in the 85-90F range away from the beaches most days. Unfortunately, this pattern will result in no relief to the Extreme to Exceptional drought over southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia.

There will be a better chance for convection toward the middle and latter part of next week as models indicate the potential for deeper moisture and forcing with upper level shortwaves.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the South Carolina coast with evening high tides through Tuesday.

Astronomical tides will be rising due to the upcoming New Moon on Saturday, with the Charleston astronomical tide expected to peak just above 6.7 ft MLLW with the Saturday and Sunday evening high tides. Therefore, even small positive anomalies could lead to minor coastal flooding for Charleston and Coastal Colleton Counties both of those evenings. The high tide this evening is forecast to reach 7.1 ft MLLW and a Coastal Flood Advisory is likely for Charleston and Coastal Colleton Counties. Overall, each high tide through at least Tuesday will need to be monitored for potential flooding.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through the 12Z TAF period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

MARINE

A brief NE wind surge will occur this morning following a reinforcing dry cold front moving through from the north. Wind gusts this morning are showing 25 to 30 knots across the nearshore waters. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the nearshore waters, valid through 10 AM this morning. Thereafter winds are forecast to diminish into the afternoon.

Saturday through Wednesday: No marine concerns are expected. Winds will average 15 knots or less with seas 2-4 feet.

Rip Currents: Slightly increasing tidal ranges with the upcoming new moon plus modest onshore swell will result in Moderate Risk Friday for GA coast and Moderate Risk for all SC/GA beaches on Saturday.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ360- 362-364.