textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections have been updated.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail through Friday.

- 2) Expect gusty winds and temperatures well below normal this weekend behind a strong cold front.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail through Friday.

Ridging aloft will gradually work to the east across the region today through Thursday. The ridge will then get pushed offshore on Friday ahead of a sharpening trough moving across the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes region. At the surface, dry high pressure will prevail through Thursday before moving out over the Atlantic Friday as a strong cold front approaches from the northwest. Warm and dry is a great way to summarize the forecast through Friday, with daily highs rising into the mid to upper 80s each day. We could approach daily records at times, especially today and Thursday. See Climate section below for details. Also of note, there will be the potential for at least patchy fog each morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Expect gusty winds and temperatures well below normal this weekend behind a strong cold front.

A strong cold will pass through the region late Friday night into Saturday morning, yielding afternoon temperatures into the upper 60s and low 70s through the upcoming weekend. Model guidance continues to indicate that it should be a dry cold front with only sprinkles across portions of the Charleston Tri- County late Friday night into early Saturday morning. This combined with dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s will lead to fairly nice fall-like weekend. Also, inland surface ridging will yield breezy north-northeasterly flow at 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25-30 mph on Saturday and Sunday. This surface ridge will slide offshore of the New England coastline on Monday, resulting in the breezy winds to slowly subside and shift more easterly. Temperatures on Monday will warm back up into the mid to upper 70s.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

At sunrise, there is some patchy fog around, though most of it is shallow. We could see some flight restrictions for the first hour or so of the TAF period at all 3 sites, but then conditions will transition back to VFR quickly and remain that way through the rest of the period. There could again be some patchy fog around Thursday morning. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

MARINE

Today through Friday: High pressure will prevail across the local waters through the week and yield quiet conditions. Winds are expected to remain 10 knots or less through Thursday night. We should start to see increasing southwesterly flow Friday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Seas should average around 2 feet through the week.

Friday through Monday: As a strong cold front passes across the local waters late Friday night into Saturday morning, this will yield to a sharp wind shift and deteriorating marine conditions. Strong northerly flow behind the front will allow seas to build, with the roughest conditions expected over the open coastal waters and offshore legs. Expect northerly winds to increase early Saturday morning with wind speeds ranging from 25 to 30 kts with gusts up to 35-40 kts possible through Sunday night. This will likely warrant Gale Warnings for all of the local waters + a Small Craft Advisory for the Charleston Harbor on Friday night through early Monday morning. Seas will build to 6 to 10 ft, with 8 to 12 ft possible farther offshore. Thereafter, the post-frontal airmass will continue to modify with winds gradually easing backwards and turning more easterly on Monday. However, a longer-period swell may persist after the local winds diminish with elevated seas forecast to last into the mid-week. Mariners should continue monitor the forecast for this weekend before heading offshore.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

October 14: KCHS: 88/2024 KCXM: 86/2024 KSAV: 88/2024

October 15: KCHS: 87/2021 KSAV: 90/1925

October 16: KCXM: 88/2018

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.