textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Aviation Section was updated for the 12z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Temperatures are expected to rise over the next several days, likely approaching triple digits this weekend. Heat Advisories could be needed.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Temperatures are expected to rise over the next several days, likely approaching triple digits this weekend. Heat Advisories could be needed.

The primary weather concern through the weekend and into early next week will be a period of above normal temperatures. High temperatures in the lower 90s today will climb into the mid to upper 90s by Saturday, with the hottest conditions expected on Sunday when temperatures are forecast to approach 100 degrees. Some locations could challenge or even exceed daily record highs. Highs in the mid 90s are forecast to continue into at least early next week. Overnight conditions will also become increasingly warm, providing limited relief from the daytime heat. Low temperatures could approach daily record high minimum values at some locations. See the Climate section below for additional details.

In addition to the rising temperatures, increasing humidity will drive heat index values significantly higher. The probability of heat index values into the 105-110 degree range will rise notably for Saturday through Monday, especially along the coast where the highest dewpoints are anticipated. On Sunday, heat index values are forecast to exceed 102F across most locations, with values of 107- 112F possible in the coastal counties. Heat Advisories could eventually be needed for portions of the area where heat indices of 108F or greater are expected.

While confidence continues to increase in a period of significant heat, there is still some uncertainty regarding convective development and its potential impact on temperatures. Saturday looks largely dry with at most isolated showers/storms initiating along the sea breeze. However, a shortwave could dive into the region Sunday or Monday, potentially resulting in scattered showers/storms that could limit daytime heating and prevent some locations from reaching their peak temperatures.

AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

25/12z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 26/12z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: There are no high confidence concerns.

MARINE

Through Tonight: Quiet conditions will persist across the coastal waters through tonight. Modest sea breeze influences will occur along the land/sea interface and Charleston Harbor, typical for summer. Speeds will remain less than 15 kt through tonight although it will be gusty in the Charleston Harbor with the sea breeze. Seas will average 1-2 ft, possibly reaching as high as 3 ft at times over parts of the Edisto Beach-Altamaha Sound offshore legs late tonight.

Friday through Tuesday: A pretty typical pattern is expected through the period. Winds will generally be south to southwest, with some modest surging into the 15-20 knot range at times. Winds will increase along the land/sea interface each afternoon and evening with the development of the sea breeze. We could see a period of gusts up to around 25 knots Friday night through Saturday evening across the Charleston County waters. Similarly, another surge is possible Tuesday, and Small Craft Advisories could be needed.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

June 28: KCHS: 99/1998 KSAV: 100/1998

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 27: KCHS: 77/2015

June 28: KCHS: 78/2013 KCXM: 81/1998 KSAV: 80/1880

June 29: KCHS: 79/1977 KSAV: 80/1885

June 30: KSAV: 79/1880

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.