textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections have been updated.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend, though no hazardous weather is anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend, though no hazardous weather is anticipated at this time.

Aloft, a trough centered off the Southeast Coast will gradually slip further away from the region across the Atlantic today, well in advance of h5 vort energy rippling across the Deep South and Southeast United States this weekend. At the sfc, a cold front positioned near the Tennessee River Valley today will slowly sag east-southeast to the Carolinas by Friday, likely stalling north of the local area before departing well to the north/northeast late weekend. Light onshore/southerly flow and ample sunshine south of this feature should provide moisture and heating necessary for summer-like convection across the Southeast, with fairly unorganized shower and thunderstorm activity locally given the lack of deep- layered shear. Instability should be sufficient for few to scattered showers/thunderstorms to develop each afternoon, perhaps initially along a sea breeze circulation, before becoming more numerous across inland areas as h5 vort energy ripples across the vicinity during peak diurnal heating hours. Severe weather chances should remain low through the weekend, although a few stronger thunderstorms with gusty winds can not be ruled out each afternoon/evening.

Rainfall amounts should remain on the lighter side with most activity this weekend, although some locations could see 0.5 to 1 inch total rainfall accumulation along/west of I-95. The risk for minor flooding is low with the anticipated setup. However, any rainfall experienced during the day combined with sfc dewpts in the upper 60s/lower 70s and light/calm winds at night could support patchy fog/shallow ground fog away from the coast each morning this weekend.

An unsettled pattern looks to continue next week, though confidence in location and rainfall amounts remains low given convection is diurnally driven in nature (summer-like). However, the bulk of precip activity tends to occur inland to a sea breeze shifting inland each day. Otherwise, look for afternoon highs in upper 80s to lower 90s, with mild overnight lows in the upper 60s to 70s.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions should prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 18Z Friday. South/southeast winds should gust up to 15-18 kt with a sea breeze this afternoon. Patchy fog is possible late tonight and/or just prior to daybreak Friday, but confidence is too low to include at the terminals for the latest TAF issuance. A few showers and/or isolated thunderstorm could impact the terminals with a sea breeze late morning/early afternoon Friday. However, confidence is too low to include in the latest TAF issuance.

Extended Aviation Outlook: TEMPO flight restrictions possible with showers and thunderstorms at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals each afternoon this weekend into early next week.

MARINE

This Afternoon and Tonight: A southerly flow regime remains in place with an upper trough drifting further offshore and weak sfc high pressure in place. Winds and seas will remain well below Small Craft Advisory levels, although some enhancement to wind speeds is expected along the land/sea interface where a sea breeze shifts inland. This includes the Charleston Harbor where winds top out near 15-20 kt this afternoon. Southerly winds around 10 kt or less are then anticipated overnight. Seas will generally average between 2-4 ft.

Friday through Monday: Conditions are forecast to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the weekend. High pressure to the east will drive onshore ESE flow each day, with wind speeds mostly topping out in the 10-15 knot range. Each afternoon and evening there could be some local enhancement along the land/sea interface with the diurnal sea breeze. Seas will average 2-4 feet through the period.

Rip Currents: A modest easterly swell around 3ft/9s and sea breeze influences each afternoon will keep the rip current risk in the moderate category this afternoon through Saturday.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.