textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections have been updated.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms possible Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms possible Thursday and Friday.

A mid level trough and associated cold front will approach the region late week. The best forcing will pass to the north, but deeper moisture will spread into the area, noted by PWats climbing to over 1.5". Rain chances will increase as a result with scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms possible Thursday and especially Friday. Highest coverage is expected over inland areas. Rainfall amounts look rather unimpressive, with NBM indicating only a 10-25% chance for precip greater than 0.25" in a 24 hour period. Drier air moves back in following fropa later Friday with a dry forecast for the weekend.

Otherwise, temperatures will be on the warmer side of normal this week. Highs are forecast to peak in the low to mid 80s most days.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

6Z TAFs: VFR. A sfc ridge will continue across the region through the TAF period. As temperatures warm into the low 80s today, a weak sea breeze should develop and advance inland. By 15z, the TAFs will feature a east-northeast wind at KJZI with gusts around 20 kts with an east wind at KCHS and KSAV. Wind gusts should end by 22Z, with speeds around 10 kts remaining through the rest of the TAF period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Isolated to scattered shower coverage is expected on Thursday and Friday. Any flight restrictions with the showers will be brief.

MARINE

Tonight: The surface pattern should generally support NE winds between 15 to 20 kts and gusts around 25 kts through the near term. As a result, wave heights should remain between 5 to 7 ft. Small Craft Advisories will remain in effect for all nearshore waters out 20 nm and the 20 to 60 nm offshore GA waters. However, winds continue a weaker trend across the Charleston Harbor post sunset, and therefore support ending a Small Craft Advisory across the harbor for the night.

Tuesday through Saturday: High pressure situated to the north will drift further over the north Atlantic on Tuesday. This will keep the tight pressure gradient and enhanced northeast flow across the local waters going with speeds mostly in the 15-20 knot range. By Wednesday, the gradient will relax and winds will turn more easterly with speeds no more than 10-15 knots. Then for Thursday, a front will approach from the west and winds will turn more southerly and light (5-10 knots). The front is expected to pass through Friday and Friday night with no significant surge behind it. Ongoing Small Craft Advisories will come to an end across the nearshore waters on Tuesday with decreasing winds and seas. The advisory for the outer GA waters will extend into Wednesday to account for lingering 6 ft seas.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ360- 362. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ364. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ384.