textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Aviation section was updated for the 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Mild temperatures expected through midweek, then a cold front should bring at least scattered showers on Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Mild temperatures expected through midweek, then a cold front should bring at least scattered showers on Thursday.

Satellite water vapor showed a wide band of dry air extending from the central Gulf north across AL. As a H5 trough ripples over the Southeast U.S. today, dry air will gradually increase from the west. Before the dry air arrives this afternoon, isolated showers may drift over the coastal counties this morning, resulting in very little rainfall. Increasing isolation this afternoon should allow high temperatures to range in the upper 70s across the SC Lowcountry, with highs around 80 possible across portions of SE GA. A ridge of sfc high pressure will remain across the region tonight, keeping ENE winds between 5 to 10 mph overnight. Low temperatures are forecast to range from 55 to 60 inland to the low 60s along the coast.

Extended: High pressure lingers into Tuesday before drifting offshore by Wednesday. Will then see an upper level trough and its attendant sfc cold front dig across the central CONUS as it slides northeastward. This may result in renewed chances for isolated to scattered showers during the latter half of the week - though model guidance still varies on how the upper level pattern will evolve. As such, the exact track and placement of the moisture axis could still shift in the coming days, making it difficult to put too much confidence behind one solution just yet. So, will continue to carry NBM blend of 20-30% PoPs Thursday and Friday.

Outside of this, should see quiet conditions largely prevail, with temperatures generally in the upper 70s to low 80s. A pinched gradient will also remain in place through Wednesday, resulting in gusts between 20 to 25 mph during the afternoon and evenings. Otherwise, expect lows to remain mild, as temperatures only fall into the 60s.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

12Z TAFs: The passage of a H5 trough will provide rounds of mid and high cloud cover across the terminals this morning, decreasing this afternoon and tonight. A sprinkle to light shower is possible at KSAV after sunrise this morning, but no restrictions are expected. TAFs will feature northeast to east- northeast winds through the period. Gusts near 20 kts are possible after mid-morning at KCHS and KSAV. KJZI should maintain occasional wind gusts early this morning, with frequent gusts between 20-23 kts today.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Breezy NE wind gusts around 20 to 25 mph will continue through Tuesday. Rain chances increase late in the week.

MARINE

Today through Tonight: The sfc pattern should generally support northeast winds between 15 to 20 kts and gusts around 25 kts through the near term. As a result, wave heights should remain between 5 to 7 ft. Small Craft Advisories will remain in effect outside the Charleston Harbor. Conditions could approach Small Craft wind conditions in the Harbor this afternoon, but is forecast to remain just below criteria.

Tuesday Onward: Winds should gradually diminish Tuesday into Wednesday as the gradient relaxes. However, seas will remain elevated enough to keep the advisories going through Tuesday night. By Wednesday night and Thursday, winds will diminish even more as a cold front approaches from the west.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ360-362-364. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ384.