textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Coastal Flooding Key Message was dropped. Other Key Messages and sections were updated.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) There is a high risk of rip currents for the Georgia beaches through Wednesday.

- 2) Not as hot through Thursday, followed by above normal temperatures Friday into the weekend. Increasing rain chances this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: There is a high risk of rip currents for the Georgia beaches through Wednesday.

This Afternoon: The Tybee Lifeguard Group has reported numerous rip currents today. Conditions will remain favorable for numerous strong rip currents through the rest of the afternoon. The rip current risk remains in the high category for the Georgia beaches with a moderate risk for the South Carolina beaches.

Wednesday/Thursday: The combination of breezy northeasterly winds with elevated seas into mid-week will lead to an elevated risk of rip currents through Wednesday. The location of the strongest winds and highest wave heights are along the southeast Georgia coastline, thus we have a High Risk of rip currents for the Georgia beaches through Wednesday. There is a Moderate Risk of rip currents along the South Carolina beaches for the same timeframe. Beachgoers should swim near a lifeguard and heed local beach patrol guidance.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Not as hot through Thursday, followed by above normal temperatures Friday into the weekend. Increasing rain chances this weekend.

Wednesday and Thursday: Nearly a 600dm ridge will remain centered across the Southeast on Wednesday, before sliding off more to the west on Thursday. This maintain the late-summer CAD and yield drier air across the region with cooler low-lvl thicknesses. Expect afternoon dewpoints to dip into the low to mid 60s with low 70s along the coastline. Afternoon temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will also be slightly cooler than the previous couple days with highs only reaching into the mid to upper 80s with a couple pockets of low 90s across interior southeast Georgia. This will keep conditions stable enough to be rain-free through the end of the work week.

Friday through Sunday: As this aforementioned high starts to shift offshore, afternoon highs will trend upwards on Friday through the weekend. Some models have indicating that a closed H5 low will develop offshore of the Carolinas on Thursday night, and then track southwestward across Central Florida this weekend. This should advect rich moisture into the region and yield scattered to numerous thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday (esp. along the afternoon seabreeze).

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

15/18z TAFs: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: Gusty winds will linger at all three terminals through late afternoon/early evening with gusts in excess of 20 kt. A risk for isolated showers will linger around KSAV through about 21z or so. VCSH 18-21z was maintained. No concerns for showers at KCHS or KJZI. Pesky BKN deck 2500-3000 ft at KSAV and KJZI will finally scour out prior to issuance time. VFR will then prevail at all sites through 16/18z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions with the chance of breezy northeasterly winds (gusts up to 20 kts possible) on Thursday afternoon. Rain chances increase again Friday through the weekend.

MARINE

Tonight: Northeast winds have steadily increased across the waters and Charleston Harbor today and will remain elevated through the night. Models are fairly aggressive in lowering wind speeds overnight, but as inland areas cool and winds back suspect the pressure gradient will remain somewhat pinched; likely higher than what is suggests. Opted for the higher side of the wind guidance given this. This will keep east to northeast winds 20-25 kt in place through the night with seas 4-7 ft. A Small Craft Advisory remains in place for all nearshore waters and the Georgia offshore waters (advisories are still not being issued for the two South Carolina offshore zones per policy constraints). In the Charleston Harbor, winds should drop below Small Craft Advisory thresholds by early evening, although they could remain near 20 kt closer to the Harbor entrance through the night. Waves around 2 ft can be expected.

Wednesday through Saturday: While strong high pressure continues to wedge itself into the region, expect northeasterly winds to remain quite breezy with speeds ranging from 15-20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt across all the marine zones on Wednesday. This strong onshore flow will continue to drive seas to surge to 4-6 ft in the nearshore waters and 5-7 ft in the offshore waters, before decreasing to 3-5 ft Thursday morning. Thus, Small Craft Advisories will remain in effect through Thursday morning. However, expect winds to still maintain breeziness with speeds 10-15 kts with gusts up to 22 kts on Thursday. More favorable marine conditions are expected on Friday through the weekend as winds fall to around 5-10 kt and seas continue to lower. Mariners should continue to monitor the latest forecast before heading offshore this weekend as there is some uncertainty regarding how this closed H5 low develops offshore of the Carolinas on Thursday night.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Wednesday evening for GAZ217-219- 239-241. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ340. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ360-362- 364-384.