textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections have been updated.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Dry conditions will persist today, followed by increasing rain chances early week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry conditions will persist today, followed by increasing rain chances early week.

Aloft, mid-upper lvl ridging centered across the Southeast United States today will show signs of weakening with the approach of a trough across the Central United States and Deep South early week. At the sfc, high pressure extending across the western Atlantic should hold across the local area for the remainder of the weekend, but then begin to retreat further offshore with the approach of a weak cold front from the north Tuesday. Ample subsidence and a downslope wind component will favor dry and slightly warmer conditions today, with afternoon highs in the lower 90s for most areas away from the coast. A few spots could touch the mid 90s along the I-95 corridor. Overnight lows should also remain more mild under high clouds, only dipping into the upper 60s/lower 70s inland to mid 70s near the coast into early week.

Rain chances begin to increase Monday with troughing approaching from the west and deepening moisture associated with a southerly flow across the Southeast. Greatest chances of precip should occur on Tuesday ahead of and/or to the south of a weak cold front attempting to reach the area. However, guidance still suggests the front dissipates prior to reaching the South Santee River. Few to scattered showers along with isolated thunderstorms should be diurnally driven, possibly along a sea breeze each afternoon Tuesday through late week.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 06Z Monday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals. However, brief flight restrictions are possible with afternoon showers and/or thunderstorms Tuesday.

MARINE

Today and Tonight: Southerly winds will prevail along the western periphery of an Atlantic high, generally ranging between 10-15 kt. However southeasterly winds could gust upwards to 15-20 kt along the land/sea interface during afternoon hours, where a sea breeze develops, then shifts inland. Seas will generally range between 2-3 ft.

Monday through Thursday: Conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through the period. High pressure will dominate over the marine waters Monday, with a weak cold front possibly approaching on Tuesday. High pressure will return through the remainder of the period. Winds will generally be out of the S, with a typical summertime pattern of a surge in gusts along the coast with the afternoon sea breeze.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.