textproduct: Charleston
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
The Aviation section has been updated to reflect the 06z TAFs.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) Rain chances return Wednesday and again late week into the weekend.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain chances return Wednesday and again late week into the weekend.
Broad mid level troughing will extend into the region Wednesday into Wednesday night, with shortwave energy expected to rotate along the base over the Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will move into the area bringing the potential for a few showers. Coverage and intensity continues to look fairly limited. Latest NBM probs for 24 hr rainfall amounts >0.10" ending 7 AM Thursday is roughly 30-50%, while probs for >0.25" is only 10-30%. Any precip should come to an end by Thursday morning.
A more impactful system is possible over the weekend. The general pattern would indicate a potent mid level wave passing across the southern U.S. with a surface low developing and tracking over/near the area, though there are still notable differences in ensemble solutions regarding the timing and strength of the wave. So while this set-up will favor elevated rain chances, forecast details on timing, amounts, and coverage are still uncertain.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 06z Tuesday.
Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR prevails.
MARINE
Through tonight: High pressure will shift offshore today allowing northeast flow in the morning to become more southeasterly through tonight. Winds will be strongest this morning, with speeds topping out in the 10-15 knot range. Overnight speeds will continue to come down, generally no more than 5-10 knots. Seas will be 2-4 ft this morning, then 2-3 ft overnight.
Tuesday through Friday: Flow across the local waters will become southwesterly Tuesday through Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. The gradient will tighten, supporting increasing winds. Speeds should increase into the 15-20 knot range, with low end potential for gusts into the 20-25 knot range. This time period from Tuesday night through Wednesday is main time period of concern for Small Craft Advisory potential through the week, mainly for the Charleston County waters and the outer GA waters.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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