textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections have been updated.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Dry and cool conditions early this week. Temperatures gradually warm to seasonable values by Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry and cool conditions early this week. Temperatures gradually warm to seasonable values by Wednesday.

A widespread freeze occurred across Southeast South Carolina and Southeast Georgia this morning. The National Weather Service in Charleston has discontinued Frost Advisories and Freeze Watches/Warnings until March 1st of next year.

Temperatures across SE GA/SC are on pace to peak in the upper 50s to around 60 this afternoon. Dewpoints this afternoon are forecast to mix down into the upper 20s to around 30 degrees, RH values should range around 30 percent this afternoon.

High pressure will provide dry conditions with a weak pressure gradient this evening into tonight. Another night of light to calm winds with mostly clear sky conditions, providing hours of nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the low to mid 30s inland to the 40s along the coast.

Large sfc high pressure is forecast to remain across the region through most of this week. Temperatures should gradually modify each day, warming to near normals, around 70 degrees, by Wednesday.

The forecast will feature no mentionable PoPs over land this week.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

18Z TAFs: VFR. The TAF period will generally feature light north winds with FEW to SCT cirrus-level clouds.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

MARINE

Tonight: The pressure pattern should support northeast winds around 15 kts across the Atlantic waters. Seas are forecast to gradually build to 2 to 4 ft overnight.

Monday through Thursday: The sfc pattern will feature an inverted coastal trough as large high pressure remains generally centered over the Mid-Atlantic States. The pressure gradient will likely become pinched, resulting in gusty northeast winds. A Small Craft Advisory has been posted for the outer GA waters, beginning Monday afternoon. Gusty northeast winds may remain through much of this week, resulting in seas to gradually increase. Six foot seas may spread into the nearshore GA waters on Tuesday and SC nearshore waters on Wednesday, likely leading to an expansion of Small Craft Advisories.

Late this week, medium-range guidance indicates an extratropical low developing off the Atlantic coast of FL, tracking north while intensifying. Spread of the traditional physic-based guidance remains quite wide with the placement, intensity, and timing of the low. However, SI-based guidance generally agrees with the low tracking over the Gulf Stream or west along the coast. Given the spread in guidance, I sided with the lower wave height guidance, favoring the NBM, during the late week period.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 7 AM EST Friday for AMZ384.