textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Aviation Section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance. Rainfall event is coming to a close with just a few light showers persisting, so Key Messages were adjusted accordingly.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Minor coastal flooding likely with high tide this evening along the South Carolina coastline.

- 2) Dry weather returns Sunday into the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Minor coastal flooding likely with high tide this evening along the South Carolina coastline.

Tidal departures have started to decrease slightly this afternoon (near 1.1 feet as of 18Z), but with northerly winds and the observed rainfall today will likely maintain a considerable positive tidal anomaly through this evening. Wind directions may become slightly less favorable by the 9:30 pm high tide in Charleston Harbor, but it still seems as though a +1.1-1.3 feet anomaly is possible. This would bring us right to or above minor flood stage of 7.0 feet MLLW, leading to minor coastal flooding likely along Charleston and coastal Colleton counties given the uncertainties listed above. At Fort Pulaski, we are expecting a crest right below action stage of 9.2 feet MLLW.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Dry weather returns Sunday into the middle of next week.

Surface high pressure builds across the southeast region on Sunday, bringing the return of sunshine and dry weather to the region. As the surface high slides off into the Atlantic Monday into Tuesday, expect temperatures to be rising each day, with highs on Sunday in the lower to mid 70s and by Wednesday highs are looking to be lower 80s to lower 90s. Out ahead of an approaching cold front that looks to move through later during the day, Thursday could be another warm day in the 80s and lower 90s, though timing of the trough which influences the cold front remains disputed amongst the models. The front will also bring our next chances for rain Thursday into Friday.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

00Z TAFs: MVFR ceilings will linger initially, before lifting and eventually scattering out by around 03z. There is some indication that shallow ground fog could develop around sunrise. Highest probability for restrictions look to be at KSAV where MVFR vsbys were included. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

Extended Aviation Outlook: No concerns through Wednesday.

MARINE

Through tonight: An area of low pressure will continue to strengthen along the stalled front situated offshore and move northeastward across the local waters overnight. Expect northeasterly winds to range from 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 22-23 kt possible overnight as the low races further away from the coastline. Seas will range from 2 to 3 ft in the nearshore waters and 3 to 5 ft in the offshore waters as northeasterly swells surges into the waters overnight.

Sunday through Thursday: Surface high pressure builds across the southeast region on Sunday, bringing the return of weaker winds and calm seas. As the surface high slides off into the Atlantic Monday into Tuesday, expect winds to swing around to become out of the south-southeast. Ahead of an approaching cold front, the pressure gradient along the coast does get pinched a bit on Tuesday and Wednesday, leading to some marginally breezy south-southeasterly winds. As the cold front continues to approach, Small Craft Advisories may be needed as wind speeds increase. NBM currently has 40-70% chances for reaching 25 knot gusts across the coastal South Carolina waters, dropping to below 40% across coastal Georgia waters.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for SCZ149- 150. MARINE...None.