textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections have been updated.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Above normal temperatures will continue to impact the area throughout the next 7 days. Humidity levels will increase this weekend and into next week, resulting in increasing heat indices across the region. Heat Advisories could be needed this weekend and into next week, especially from Sunday onward.

- 2) Typical summertime convection returns on Sunday, with chances increasing further into next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Above normal temperatures will continue to impact the area throughout the next 7 days. Humidity levels will increase this weekend and into next week, resulting in increasing heat indices across the region. Heat Advisories could be needed this weekend and into next week, especially from Sunday onward.

Strong ridging will persist across the region this weekend and throughout much of next week, resulting in above normal temperatures. Dewpoints will again be relatively low today and Saturday, with values dipping into the mid 60s across inland areas. Heat index values for today will generally top out around 100 degrees in most areas. However, we will see heat indices steadily rise each day through the weekend and into next week as subtropical high pressure starts to drive higher humidity. Saturday heat indices will rise more into the 100-105 degree range, with a few pockets of slightly higher values possible. Sunday looks like the first day where a larger area of heat indices upwards of 108-110 degrees will be possible. This will continue through much of next week as well, and Heat Advisories could be needed. Also, daily record high temperatures and record high minimums could be challenged at times through the period. See the Climate Section below for details.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Typical summertime convection returns on Sunday, with chances increasing further into next week.

A strong ridge centered over the region will keep convection to a minimum late week, including Independence Day, with a dry forecast in place. The ridge will shift offshore during the latter half of the weekend and early next week, allowing for a more typical summertime convective pattern to develop. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day, especially in the afternoon when instability is at its peak. The threat for organized severe weather is low, but can't rule out a stronger storm or two each day.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 06z Saturday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible in afternoon showers/thunderstorms late this weekend into early next week.

MARINE

Today through tonight: Light northeast flow this morning will gradually turn southeasterly this evening and eventually southwesterly overnight. Wind speeds will be highest this afternoon and evening, mainly along the land/sea interface with the sea breeze circulation. Wind speeds of 10-15 knots and gusts potentially as high as 20 knots can be expected during this time along the coast. Seas should average 2-3 feet.

Saturday through Wednesday: A typical summertime pattern is expected across the coastal waters over the weekend into next week, with winds generally out of the southwest in the early mornings, then switching from the south-southeast for the afternoons. Speeds are forecast to stay below small craft advisory criteria, however some gusts in the low 20 kt range are possible, especially as we move into next week and the pressure gradient tightens. Seas will average 2-4 feet.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

July 3: KCHS: 98/2019

July 4: KCHS: 98/2023 KCXM: 98/1902 KSAV: 99/1997

July 5: KCHS: 100/1993 KSAV: 100/1902

July 7: KCHS: 99/1954

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 5: KCHS: 78/2017 KCXM: 82/2016 KSAV: 78/2016

July 6: KCHS: 79/1990 KCXM: 82/2024 KSAV: 78/2024

July 7: KCHS: 80/2017 KCXM: 82/2022 KSAV: 80/1883

July 8: KCXM: 83/2016 KSAV: 80/1990

July 9: KCHS: 80/1998 KSAV: 80/1883

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.