textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections have been updated.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Unsettled weather will continue into the weekend, with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Unsettled weather will continue into the weekend, with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms.

This Afternoon: Broad upper-lvl troughing continues to extend down towards the Ohio River Valley, while a subtle shortwave lifts across the Deep South. We've seen quite an early start to showers and thunderstorms across the Charleston Tri-County this morning. With PWATs between 2.0 and 2.2 inches, rainfall rates have been impressive with 2-3" per hour within in the stronger thunderstorms. Thankfully convection has tapered off across the Charleston Tri-County over the last hour, however the next area of interest will be the southeast Georgia (esp. near the coastline) as convection has already begun to initiate. Again, with these PWAT values, rather heavy rainfall rates will be prevalent with these showers and thunderstorms and there could be minor flooding over poor drainage areas. The environment conditions continue to not be favorable for a severe risk, however a strong thunderstorm is a possible across southeast Georgia with SBCAPE values ranging from 2500-3000 J/kg near the coastline. This convection should wane in the evening as we head towards sunset.

Thursday through Sunday: As this upper-lvl trough deepens across the Ohio River Valley, a stationary front will remain parked nearby. A couple steps forward in time, this stationary front will become mobile and will start it's journey southeastward towards the region, before stalling out across our area this weekend. This set-up combined with PWATs near 2 inches will yield daily chances of showers and thunderstorms (esp. in the afternoon and evening hours). There is some uncertainty regarding the coverage of these showers and thunderstorms, however overall guidance indicates scattered to numerous coverage each afternoon/evening. The bottom line is that it will be a rather soggy weekend, thus the main hazard with be heavy rainfall as there is potential for training and/or back-building with these storms. It's important to note that there is increasing potential for localized flooding and/or flash flooding this weekend esp. over urban and low-lying areas. And again, the severe threat remains rather low with the potential for a couple severe thunderstorms within the stronger storms possible.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

26/18Z TAFs: Rather early start this morning with showers and thunderstorms developing near KCHS/KJZI through the early afternoon. However, convection has slowly tapered off across the Charleston Tri- County. There is some potential for some convection to re-develop this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across southeast Georgia and are slowly moving northeastward, thus TEMPO was mentioned between 18-22Z for -TSRA. Otherwise, TAF sites should remain in VFR conditions.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms will bring brief flight restrictions through the weekend, especially in the afternoons.

MARINE

This Afternoon through Sunday: A series of stationary fronts and surface troughs will be across the Southeast through Saturday, potentially followed by a cold front on Sunday. Despite this somewhat active synoptic pattern, no Small Craft Advisories are expected, with winds generally sustained at 15 kts or less. Seas will be in the 2-3 ft range. Additionally, thunderstorms could briefly bring higher winds.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.