textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections have been updated.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend, though no hazardous weather is anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend, though no hazardous weather is anticipated at this time.

Aloft, a ridge will remain centered across the Atlantic, placing the local area along its western periphery, while a series of h5 vort energy ripples across the Deep South and Southeast through the weekend. At the sfc, a weak stationary front remains draped across the Carolinas this afternoon, remaining just north and inland to the local area through the day prior to departing to the north/northeast Saturday and Sunday. Southerly onshore flow and abundant sunshine south of this feature likely results in deep moisture advecting across the local area with PWATs averaging between 1.5-2.0 inches while sfc temps peak in the upper 80s/lower 90s each afternoon. Instability appears sufficient for few to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity to develop along a daily sea breeze circulation, becoming more numerous in coverage across inland areas (west of I-95) during peak afternoon heating into early evening hours. Deep-layered shear remains modest, suggesting unorganized shower/thunderstorm activity, but a few stronger thunderstorms can not be ruled out across the far interior, perhaps with h5 vort energy and an inland progressing sea breeze promoting some enhancement to convection within an environment displaying approximately 20-25 kt of 0-6 km Bulk Shear. Some hires guidance suggests a cluster and/or unorganized line of convection attempting to reach the far interior this evening, but likely trending in an eroding/weaker state as instability wanes with the loss of daytime heating. Regardless, gusty winds and lightning remain the primary concern with thunderstorms through the weekend, although there is some indication of locally heavy downpours with activity away from the coast Saturday and Sunday afternoon/evenings as well. Some locations west of I-95 could see rainfall amounts exceeding 1 inch by the end of the weekend.

Next week, warm and moist conditions persist as the upper ridge retrogrades back to the west toward the Southeast United States. This should bring a more summer-like pattern locally with diurnally driven convection each day, starting along sea breeze circulations, the spreading across inland areas during afternoon into early evening hours.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions should prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 18Z Saturday. However, south/southeast winds gusting up to 15-20 kt will be common at all terminals this afternoon with a sea breeze setup in place. Shallow ground fog remains a possibility approaching daybreak Saturday, but confidence is too low to include in the latest TAF issuance. A few showers and/or isolated thunderstorm could impact the terminals with a sea breeze late morning/early afternoon Saturday, potentially resulting in PROB30 or TEMPO groups for later TAF issuances.

Extended Aviation Outlook: TEMPO flight restrictions possible with showers and thunderstorms at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals each afternoon this weekend and early next week.

MARINE

This Afternoon and Tonight: Sfc high pressure will remain the dominant weather feature across the western Atlantic while a stalled front is positioned north and inland of local waters. The setup will favor conditions that remain well below Small Craft Advisory levels. Southeasterly winds will remain somewhat breezy (~15 kt) along the land/sea interface, including in the Charleston Harbor, as a sea breeze continues to make progress inland. Southerly winds around 10- 15 kt are then anticipated during the night, although a few gusts up to 20 kt are possible across offshore Georgia waters. Seas will generally average between 3-4 ft, although could build to 5 ft beyond 30 nm from the coast tonight.

Saturday through Tuesday: Conditions are forecast to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria through early next week. High pressure to the east will drive onshore ESE flow each day, with wind speeds mostly topping out in the 10-15 knot range. Each afternoon and evening there could be some local enhancement along the land/sea interface with the diurnal sea breeze. Seas will average 2-4 feet through the period.

Rip Currents: A modest easterly swell around 3ft/9s and sea breeze influences each afternoon will keep the rip current risk in the moderate category through at least Sunday.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.