textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The cold weather key message was removed. Aviation discussion was updated for the 12z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Rain chances will increase across drought stricken areas of the South Carolina Lowcountry and Southeast Georgia Wednesday and Wednesday night as a cold front moves through the area.

- 2) Dry conditions and near seasonal temperatures are expected across the South Carolina Lowcountry and Southeast Georgia Friday through early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain chances will increase across drought stricken areas of the South Carolina Lowcountry and Southeast Georgia Wednesday and Wednesday night as a cold front moves through the area.

A strong cold front will push across the Southeast U.S. Wednesday as broad upper trough digs across the central CONUS. As a potent shortwave rounds the base of the broad upper tough, a frontal wave will likely develop over northern South Carolina- southern North Carolina Wednesday afternoon. This low is forecast to shift offshore of Cape Hatteras Wednesday night as the front clears the Southeast U.S. coast. Modest moisture advection off the Gulf characterized by a tongue of PWATs in excess of 1" is forecast to propagate into Southeast Georgia and far southern South Carolina ahead of the front. Increasing deep-layered moisture coupled with modest forcing aloft should support a rather large band of light to moderate showers along/ahead of the approaching cold front. This activity is poised to reach inland areas after daybreak Wednesday, spread east across the entire area during the day, and clearing the coast Wednesday evening. Some light showers rotating in along the backside of the exiting surface low may linger across southern South Carolina into the early morning hours Thursday. Categorical pops of 80-100% were highlighted with a QPF of 0.25-0.50". This will bring some much needed rainfall to drought stricken areas, but amounts will not be enough to significantly impact the D1 (moderate) to D3 (severe) drought conditions that are in place.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Dry conditions and near seasonal temperatures are expected across the South Carolina Lowcountry and Southeast Georgia Friday through early next week.

Mid-level flow overhead will generally be from the northwest through Sunday, with the models starting to diverge on Monday. Models hint that there could be several weak fronts approaching and trying to move through our area Friday through early next week. However, we emphasize they're weak and no precipitation is in the forecast. Overall, High pressure nearby will bring our area dry conditions. High temperatures Friday will be a few degrees below normal, rising to near normal through the weekend and early next week. Low temperatures during this time period should remain a few degrees below normal. Afternoon RH values inland could be lower than forecasted. However, winds don't appear to be strong enough to generate any fire weather concerns at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

03/12z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 04/12z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: A cold front will bring flight restrictions Wednesday through Wednesday evening, mainly due to rain showers. VFR for Thursday on.

MARINE

Today through Wednesday Night: There no marine concerns today, but winds will increase Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Southwest winds could get close to Small Craft Advisory thresholds over the Georgia offshore waters Wednesday afternoon and especially Wednesday night with the onset of cold air advection with the passage of the cold front. Right now, its appears the nearshore legs and Charleston Harbor should remain below advisory thresholds.

Thursday through Saturday: Several weak fronts should approach and try to move through our coastal waters. But High pressure nearby will be the primary synoptic feature most of this time period. Winds and seas could be high enough to prompt Small Craft Advisories for portions of our waters Thursday and Thursday night. Following a brief lull, there could be another round of Small Craft Advisories later Friday into Friday night for most of our waters.

EQUIPMENT

The KCLX radar is operational, but could go down at any time. Additional repairs are needed.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.