textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The high rip current risk Key Message was dropped. Key Message 1 as well as the Aviation and Marine sections were updated.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Seasonable temperatures with dry conditions through Friday. Rain chances will gradually increase across Southeast Georgia and the South Carolina Lowcountry this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonable temperatures with dry conditions through Friday. Rain chances will gradually increase across Southeast Georgia and the South Carolina Lowcountry this weekend.

Tonight through Friday: A nearly 600 dm ridge will maintain control of the forecast through tomorrow night, before sliding over to the ArkLaTex on Friday. For tonight, there will be a bit of a radiational component away from the coast with mainly clear skies and light winds expected. Lows will range from the lower- mid 60s inland to the mid 70s at the beaches. The span of consecutive days with lows above 70 ended at KCHS this morning (1st place with 82 days) and could end at KSAV tonight (currently 2nd place at 97 days). Temperatures begin to warm up, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. Some models have indicating that a closed H5 low will develop offshore of the Carolinas on Thursday night, and then track southwestward across Central Florida on Friday. However, with strong subsidence in place across the region, a rain-free forecast will be maintained through Friday.

Saturday and Sunday: As this H5 closed low meanders into the northern Gulf over the weekend, it will provide sufficient moisture back into the region. Expect PWATs to range from 1.75 to 2.0 inches across the region. This will allow for warm and humid conditions to return to the region and will yield isolated to scattered afternoon thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday as the sea breeze shifts inland.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

17/00z TAFs: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 18/00z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions with rain- free weather through Friday, rain chances increase this weekend.

MARINE

Through Tonight: Winds and seas will continue to diminish tonight. Winds/seas have dropped below Small Craft Advisory levels across the South Sante-Savannah nearshore legs and the advisory there will be allowed to expire. It continues through 2 AM for both Georgia marine legs.

Thursday through Sunday: While strong high pressure continues to be apparent over the region, expect winds to still maintain some breeziness with speeds 10-15 kts with gusts up to 18-20 kts on Thursday. More favorable marine conditions are expected on Friday through the weekend as winds fall to around 5-10 kt and seas continue to lower. Mariners should continue to monitor the latest forecast before heading offshore this weekend as there is some uncertainty regarding how this closed H5 low develops offshore of the Carolinas on Thursday night.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ364-384.