textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Aviation Section has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance. The Marine Section has been updated for latest trends.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) There is a High Risk for rip currents along the Georgia beaches through Wednesday.

- 2) Not as hot through Thursday, followed by above normal temperatures Friday into the weekend. Increasing rain chances this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: There is a High Risk for rip currents along the Georgia beaches through Wednesday.

The combination of breezy northeasterly winds with elevated seas into mid-week will lead to an elevated risk for rip currents tonight through at least Wednesday. The location of the strongest winds and highest wave heights are expected along the Southeast Georgia coastline, thus we have a High Risk for rip currents along the Georgia beaches through Wednesday. A Moderate Risk for rip currents will remain in place along the South Carolina beaches during the same timeframe.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Not as hot through Thursday, followed by above normal temperatures Friday into the weekend. Increasing rain chances this weekend.

Wednesday and Thursday: Nearly a 600dm ridge will remain centered across the Southeast on Wednesday, before sliding off more to the west on Thursday. This maintain the late-summer CAD and yield drier air across the region with cooler low-lvl thicknesses. Expect afternoon dewpoints to dip into the low to mid 60s with low 70s along the coastline. Afternoon temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will also be slightly cooler than the previous couple days with highs only reaching into the mid to upper 80s with a couple pockets of low 90s across interior southeast Georgia. This will keep conditions stable enough to be rain-free through the end of the work week.

Friday through Sunday: As this aforementioned high starts to shift offshore, afternoon highs will trend upwards on Friday through the weekend. Some models have indicating that a closed H5 low will develop offshore of the Carolinas on Thursday night, and then track southwestward across Central Florida this weekend. This should advect rich moisture into the region and yield scattered to numerous thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday (esp. along the afternoon seabreeze).

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 00Z Thursday. However, gusty east-northeast winds up to 15-20 kt are possible at all terminals late Wednesday morning through much of the afternoon.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions with the chance of breezy northeasterly winds (gusts up to 20 kts possible) on Thursday afternoon. Rain chances increase again Friday through the weekend.

MARINE

Through Tonight: Gusty northeast winds across the Charleston Harbor should remain elevated with gusts around 20 kt at times near the harbor entrance overnight. Models are fairly aggressive in lowering northeast winds overnight, but as inland areas cool and winds back suspect the pressure gradient will remain somewhat pinched; likely higher than what is suggests. Opted for the higher side of the wind guidance given this setup across nearshore SC and offshore GA waters, which should keep east/northeast winds 20-25 kt in place through the night with seas 4-7 ft. Some areas could see wind gusts up to 30 kt across GA waters. A Small Craft Advisory remains in place for all nearshore waters and the Georgia offshore waters.

Wednesday through Saturday: While strong high pressure continues to wedge itself into the region, expect northeasterly winds to remain quite breezy with speeds ranging from 15-20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt across all the marine zones on Wednesday. This strong onshore flow will continue to drive seas to surge to 4-6 ft in the nearshore waters and 5-7 ft in the offshore waters, before decreasing to 3-5 ft Thursday morning. Thus, Small Craft Advisories will remain in effect through Thursday morning. However, expect winds to still maintain breeziness with speeds 10-15 kts with gusts up to 22 kts on Thursday. More favorable marine conditions are expected on Friday through the weekend as winds fall to around 5-10 kt and seas continue to lower. Mariners should continue to monitor the latest forecast before heading offshore this weekend as there is some uncertainty regarding how this closed H5 low develops offshore of the Carolinas on Thursday night.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Wednesday evening for GAZ217-219- 239-241. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ360-362- 364-384.