textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections have been updated for convective trends overnight and the 00Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Unsettled weather will continue into late week, with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Unsettled weather will continue into late week, with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms this weekend.

Tonight: Conditions should remain quiet for much of the area this evening and early overnight after a full day of convection working over the environment and a loss of diurnal heating. A bulk of the area is expected to remain dry through the night, although HIRES guidance suggests clusters of showers and thunderstorms returning across parts of the Southeast South Carolina late tonight, particularly across coastal areas in the Tri-County Area. Given PWATs around 2.0 inches, showers and thunderstorms that develop late night could become capable of producing brief heavy rainfall, and possibly resulting in minor flooding issues before daybreak.

Thursday through Sunday: As this upper-lvl trough deepens across the Ohio River Valley, a stationary front will remain parked nearby. A couple steps forward in time, this stationary front will become mobile and will start it's journey southeastward towards the region, before stalling out across our area this weekend. This set-up combined with PWATs near 2 inches will yield daily chances of showers and thunderstorms (esp. in the afternoon and evening hours). There is some uncertainty regarding the coverage of these showers and thunderstorms, however overall guidance indicates scattered to numerous coverage each afternoon/evening. The bottom line is that it will be a rather soggy weekend, thus the main hazard with be heavy rainfall as there is potential for training and/or back-building with these storms. It's important to note that there is increasing potential for localized flooding and/or flash flooding this weekend esp. over urban and low-lying areas. And again, the severe threat remains rather low with the potential for a couple severe thunderstorms within the stronger storms possible.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions are expected at CHS/JZI through about 08Z Thursday, before the risk for showers/thunderstorms increase across the local area prior to daybreak. TEMPO MVFR conditions between 08-11Z have been introduced at CHS/JZI to account for this activity. SAV is anticipated to remain VFR through the night, although some hints of patchy fog and reduced vsbys is possible approaching daybreak. Mid to late morning hours post sunrise should remain VFR at all terminals. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms return during the afternoon. PROB30 groups have been introduced between 17-22Z at JZI, 18-23Z at CHS, and 18-24Z at SAV for thunderstorms and associated MVFR conditions.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms will bring brief flight restrictions through the weekend, especially in the afternoons.

MARINE

Tonight through Sunday: A series of stationary fronts and surface troughs will be across the Southeast through Saturday, potentially followed by a cold front on Sunday. Despite this somewhat active synoptic pattern, no Small Craft Advisories are expected, with winds generally sustained at 15 kts or less. Seas will be in the 2-3 ft range. Additionally, thunderstorms could briefly bring higher winds.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.