textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections have been updated.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail through Friday.

- 2) A strong cold front will yield breezy and well-below normal temperatures this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will prevail through Friday.

Aloft, prominent ridging will build in from along the Gulf Coast and settle directly across the forecast area by Thursday. The ridge will then break down into Friday as a sharp trough moves into the Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes region. At the surface, dry high pressure will sit across the Southeast region through Thursday before retreating offshore Friday as a fast moving cold front approaches from the northwest. The theme for the week will be rain- free conditions and well above normal temperatures. The setup will support widespread mid to upper 80s each day, which would be on the order of 7-9 degrees above normal for mid October. In fact, a few isolated locations reaching 90 is in play almost each day and we could be near daily records at times (see Climate section below).

KEY MESSAGE 2: A strong cold front will yield breezy and well- below normal temperatures this weekend.

A strong cold front will pass through the region late Friday night into Saturday morning, yielding afternoon temperatures into the upper 60s and low 70s on Saturday and Sunday. This combined with dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s will lead to fairly nice fall- like weekend. Also, inland surface ridging will yield breezy north- northeasterly flow at 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25-30 mph on Saturday and Sunday. This surface ridge will slide offshore of the New England coastline on Monday, resulting in the breezy winds to slowly subside and shift more easterly. Temperatures on Monday will warm back up into the mid to upper 70s.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 06z Wednesday. Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

MARINE

Today through Friday: High pressure will prevail across the local waters through the week and yield quiet conditions. Winds are expected to remain 10 knots or less through Thursday night. We should start to see increasing southwesterly flow Friday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Seas should average around 2 feet through the week.

Friday through Monday: As a strong cold front passes across the local waters late Friday night into Saturday morning, this will yield to a sharp wind shift and deteriorating marine conditions. Fresh northerly flow behind the front will allow seas to build, with the roughest conditions expected over the open coastal waters and offshore legs. Expect northerly winds to increase early Saturday morning with wind speeds ranging from 25 to 30 kts with gusts up to 35-40 kts possible through Sunday night. This will likely warrant Gale Warnings for all of the local waters + a Small Craft Advisory for the Charleston Harbor on Friday night through early Monday morning. Seas will build to 5 to 9 ft, with 10 to 12 ft possible farther offshore. The Charleston Harbor and nearshore waters will be somewhat sheltered, but expect a stiff breeze and choppy conditions near inlets and against the outgoing tides throughout the weekend. Thereafter, the post-frontal airmass will continue to modify with winds gradually easing backwards and turning more easterly on Monday. However, a longer-period swell may persist after the local winds diminish with elevated seas forecast to last into the mid-week. Mariners should continue monitor the forecast for this weekend before heading offshore.

CLIMATE

Record High Temperatures:

October 14: KCHS: 88/2024 KCXM: 86/2024 KSAV: 88/2024

October 15: KCHS: 87/2021

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.