textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Aviation section was updated for the 12z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) A high risk of rip currents is expected along the southeast Georgia coast today, with a moderate risk for the southeast South Carolina beaches.

- 2) Isolated to scattered showers mainly south of I-16 through Wednesday. Dry conditions with temperatures at or above normal Thursday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: A high risk of rip currents is expected along the southeast Georgia coast today, with a moderate risk for the southeast South Carolina beaches.

Gusty northeast winds, a strong longshore current, and building surf with breaker heights reaching 3-4 ft will support dangerous rip current conditions at the Georgia beaches today. The South Carolina coast maintains a moderate risk of rip currents.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Isolated to scattered showers mainly south of I-16 through Wednesday. Dry conditions with temperatures at or above normal Thursday into the weekend.

Mid-level troughing will generally prevail over the East Coast mid to late week. There could be isolated light showers mainly south of I-16 through Wednesday afternoon, while areas north of that should be rain-free. A cold front will move through Thursday morning. But minimal, if any rainfall is expected with it. Though, it should bring critical RH values Thursday afternoon. However, winds won't be strong Thursday afternoon, limiting fire weather concerns. Otherwise, expect dry conditions Thursday through the weekend. Temperatures initially near normal will trend to above normal.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

12/12z TAF Discussion: KJZI/KCHS: A VFR level stratus deck will prevail through the day with 5 kft+ cigs. Model soundings do show a lowering stratus deck to near MVFR levels after 06z Wednesday, but confidence was too low to include prevailing flight restrictions at this time. Gusty northeast winds will prevail in the wake of a cold front, with gusts around 20 kt common through this afternoon before diminishing around sunset this evening.

KSAV: A low stratus deck with MVFR ceilings between 2000-3000 ft will persist through much of the day. Meanwhile, numerous showers will spread into southeast Georgia this morning and continue into the evening. The bulk of the activity is expected to remain just south of the terminal; therefore, VCSH should be sufficient most of the day. However, a period of -SHRA was introduced for a couple of hours this morning. During this time, mixing should clear ceilings temporarily with little vsby restrictions. There could be times when additional periods of light rain may reach the airfield, but its brief nature will make timing hard to pin down and regardless impacts will be minimal. Gusty northeast winds behind the cold front will continue through the day, with gusts around 20 kt before easing around sunset.

Extended Aviation Outlook: There are low probabilities of flight restrictions associated with a cold front Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

MARINE

Today and tonight: Small Craft Advisories remain in effect into tonight for gusty northeast winds behind a cold front. Seas will rapidly build this morning, peaking this evening between 4-7 ft across the nearshore waters (0-20 nm) and 7-8 across the outer waters (20-60 nm). Marine conditions will gradually improve late tonight as high pressure builds southward. SCAs will end first for the nearshore waters late tonight, and then the outer Georgia waters Wednesday morning.

Extended Marine: Low pressure will pass offshore on Wednesday, bringing minimal additional impacts to our waters. A cold front should quickly move through the waters Thursday morning. Though, winds and seas shouldn't be high enough to prompt Small Craft Advisories. High pressure should prevail thereafter.

Rip Currents: See Key Message #1 addressing today.

Wednesday: The combination of strong and gusty northeasterly winds and elevated seas will yield an increased threat of rip currents. Our internal calculator points towards a Low to Moderate Risk of rip currents at our beaches. However, experimental RCMOS points to a borderline High/Moderate Risk at all of our beaches during the afternoon. Given the variation, we upped the risk to Moderate for our GA beaches, and left the risk Low for our SC beaches. But this will need to be reevaluated.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ217-219-239- 241. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ360-362- 364. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ384.