textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Tide levels fell short of minor coastal flood criteria, so the Coastal Flood Advisory was cancelled. Key Messages were updated accordingly.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Dry weather returns Sunday into the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry weather returns Sunday into the middle of next week.

Surface high pressure builds across the southeast region on Sunday, bringing the return of sunshine and dry weather to the region. As the surface high slides off into the Atlantic Monday into Tuesday, expect temperatures to be rising each day, with highs on Sunday in the lower to mid 70s and by Wednesday highs are looking to be lower 80s to lower 90s. Out ahead of an approaching cold front that looks to move through later during the day, Thursday could be another warm day in the 80s and lower 90s, though timing of the trough which influences the cold front remains disputed amongst the models. The front will also bring our next chances for rain Thursday into Friday.

AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

00Z TAFs: MVFR ceilings will linger initially, before lifting and eventually scattering out by around 03z. There is some indication that shallow ground fog could develop around sunrise. Highest probability for restrictions look to be at KSAV where MVFR vsbys were included. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

Extended Aviation Outlook: No concerns through Wednesday.

MARINE

Through tonight: An area of low pressure will continue to strengthen along the stalled front situated offshore and move northeastward across the local waters overnight. Expect northeasterly winds to range from 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 22-23 kt possible overnight as the low races further away from the coastline. Seas will range from 2 to 3 ft in the nearshore waters and 3 to 5 ft in the offshore waters as northeasterly swells surges into the waters overnight.

Sunday through Thursday: Surface high pressure builds across the southeast region on Sunday, bringing the return of weaker winds and calm seas. As the surface high slides off into the Atlantic Monday into Tuesday, expect winds to swing around to become out of the south-southeast. Ahead of an approaching cold front, the pressure gradient along the coast does get pinched a bit on Tuesday and Wednesday, leading to some marginally breezy south-southeasterly winds. As the cold front continues to approach, Small Craft Advisories may be needed as wind speeds increase. NBM currently has 40-70% chances for reaching 25 knot gusts across the coastal South Carolina waters, dropping to below 40% across coastal Georgia waters.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.