textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minor changes made to discussion for Key Message 1. The aviation section has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance. Minor changes made to the discussion in the marine section.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Rain chances return Wednesday and again late week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain chances return Wednesday and again late week into the weekend.

Aloft, h5 shortwave energy associated with a broad mid-lvl trough will traverse the region Wednesday, helping a sfc cold front advance across the local with few to scattered showers (40-50%) late morning into early evening. Precip intensity remains fairly limited with the front, with latest NBM probs for 24-hr rainfall amounts ending 7 AM Thursday being 20-40% for amounts >0.10" and only 10-15% for amounts >0.25". Any precip should end by midnight Thursday.

Models continue to support a more impactful system across the Southeast this weekend with a potent mid-lvl low passing across the local area late weekend while the local area becomes warm-sectored in advance of sfc low pressure and/or a cold front tracking over or near the area Saturday into Sunday. There is still quit a bit of uncertainty in regards to overall strength and timing of the system, but precip coverage appears higher (60-80%) with the potential for QPF amounts around an inch for much of the area Saturday through Sunday, especially if thunderstorms are introduced into the forecast once warm-sectoring trends become more clear. Forecast details, timing and qpf amounts will likely require adjustments for late week.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions are expected at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 18Z Tuesday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR prevails through early Friday. Flight restrictions are possible at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals with a passing low pressure system this weekend.

MARINE

High pressure will prevail across the local waters through Tuesday. A cold front will approach from the north Tuesday night, causing winds and seas to increase. It'll be borderline Small Craft criteria for the Charleston waters and the GA waters beyond 20 nm Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon. The front will pass from north to south through our area later Wednesday. Conditions improve on Thursday, as High pressure builds back into our region, then prevails for the second half of this week.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.