textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections have been updated.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) A multi-day coastal flooding event will slowly diminish through the remainder of the week. - 2) Enhanced northeast flow will lead to a high risk for rip currents into mid-week along South Carolina and Georgia beaches. - 3) Dry and warming conditions will continue through the week before rain chances increase late weekend.

DISCUSSION

.KEY MESSAGE 1: A multi-day coastal flooding event will continue this week.

Astronomical tides will continue to rise into early this week due to today's full moon (10/26) and the lunar perigee (10/28). However, northeasterly winds have begun to relax leading to weaker tidal departures. While the aforementioned full moon and lunar perigee will keep tides running higher than normal, tidal flooding should slowly decrease with each tidal cycle as we move further away from the full moon.

Rest of This Week: Coastal flooding is forecast to occur with the Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday morning high tide cycles, with minor flooding possible through the end of the week. During these cycles, it is possible that the Charleston Harbor could exceed moderate flood stage. Coastal Flood Advisories will likely be needed through Thursday for the morning tidal cycles across Charleston and Colleton counties.

KEY MESSAGE 2:Enhanced northeast flow will lead to a high risk for rip currents along the South Carolina and Georgia beaches.

Gusty northeast winds, persistent long-period swell, and continuous wave action will support dangerous rip currents along all southeast SC/GA beaches. A High Risk for rip currents is in place for all area beaches through Wednesday, driven by 5+ ft swells every 9-10 seconds. This enhanced risk could continue through Saturday, October 31, which marks the end of the 2026 surf season and the final routine issuance of the Surf Zone Forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Dry and warming conditions will continue through the week before rain chances increase late weekend.

Rinse and repeat through most of the week as high pressure remains in full control of the forecast. With upper ridging in place across the deep south, dry cognitions should prevail through Friday The ridge is expected to slowly break down and drift east with time over the Carolinas and Georgia by Wednesday or Thursday. This will allow temps to warm a few degrees above normal during the week with afternoon highs in the mid 70s near the coast and upper 70s/around 80 inland. Strong radiational cooling nights under high pressure should allow temps to dip into the low/mid 40s inland to mid- upper 50s near the coast for the next couple nights, but will also trend warmer through the week.

The extended period of drier weather looks to come to an end late weekend as the pattern looks a little more active late weekend into early next week. High pressure should begin to break down this weekend as the first of a couple upper level lows pass across the Deep South and into the Mid-Atlantic. This should bring chances of showers and/or perhaps a few thunderstorms across South Carolina and Georgia heading into early next week and beyond.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR Conditions are expected to continue throughout the forecast with northeasterly winds relaxing to around 10 knots gusting to 15 knots.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Breezy north-northeast winds are expected at KCHS/KJZI/KSAV daily through the week. There are no other high confidence concerns.

MARINE

Today and Tonight: A tight pressure gradient persists between high pressure wedged inland to the north and weak low pressure near the Bahamas. Elevated winds and seas will continue through today and tonight, maintaining Small Craft Advisories across all nearshore waters (outside the Charleston Harbor) and offshore GA waters. Expect north-northeast wind gusts of 25 to 30 kt, nearshore seas of 4 to 8 ft, and offshore seas of 7 to 10 ft (highest across Georgia waters).

Wednesday through Sunday: The persistent inland high pressure wedge will maintain elevated winds and seas with little improvement through Thursday night. Conditions will improve drastically Friday into Saturday as the pressure gradient over the waters relaxes, bringing an end to the prolonged stretch of hazardous conditions and long-duration Small Craft Advisories.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ217-219-239- 241. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM this morning to noon EDT today for GAZ217-219-239-241. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ148>151. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM this morning to noon EDT today for SCZ148>151. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ360. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ362-364. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ384.