textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Aviation section was updated for the 12z TAF cycle.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Mostly dry conditions expected into early next week with above normal temperatures.

- 2) Minor coastal flooding expected along portions of the southeast South Carolina coast with the evening high tide cycles into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Mostly dry conditions expected into early next week with above normal temperatures.

Surface high pressure will extend across the Southeast through the middle of next week, with ridging building aloft. There could be some diurnal convection, mainly Sunday and Wednesday, but coverage looks pretty limited and most locations will stay dry. Temperatures will be warmer than normal. Highs will average in the 85-90F range away from the immediate coast, with mild overnight lows.

There will be better chances for showers and thunderstorms during the latter half of next week. While there is still spread between models, consensus indicates shortwave energy crossing the region with a surface cold front approaching and possibly stalling nearby.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Minor coastal flooding expected along portions of the southeast South Carolina coast with the evening high tide cycles into early next week.

Astronomical influences including the new moon (5/16) and the perigee (5/17) will drive elevated tide levels through the weekend. The pattern will mostly favor onshore southeasterly flow which is modestly supportive of higher tide levels as well. The best chance for minor coastal flooding will be at the Charleston Harbor tide gage, with much lower potential at Fort Pulaski. The forecast advertises peak evening high tides around 7.2-7.3 ft MLLW for Saturday and Sunday evenings. Additional Coastal Flood Advisories will likely be needed through the weekend, and possibly into Monday. Astronomical tide levels then begin to fall early next week and the potential for minor coastal flooding will diminish.

AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

16/12z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR. Gusty winds will accompany the sea breeze this afternoon.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

MARINE

Through Tonight: No concerns. A weak/subtle coastal trough could back winds more easterly through daybreak; otherwise, a southerly wind regime will persist through tonight. Sea breeze enhancements are likely along the land/sea interface and Charleston Harbor this afternoon. Winds will largely remain less than 10 kt (except 10-15 kt in the Charleston Harbor this afternoon) with seas 1-3 ft.

Sunday through Thursday: No marine concerns are expected. High pressure to the east will drive onshore southeasterly flow each day, with wind speeds mostly topping out in the 10-15 knot range. Each afternoon and evening there could be some local enhancement along the land/sea interface with the diurnal sea breeze. Seas should average 2-3 feet through the period.

Rip Currents: The combination of influences from the upcoming new moon cycle and persistent onshore flow will produce an elevated risk of rip currents through the weekend. A Moderate Risk of rip currents is in effect at all beaches today and Sunday.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.