textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections have been updated.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) The coastal flood risk will linger this week.

- 2) Warm and dry conditions will extend through most of the week.

- 3) Unsettled weather could return late week, and possibly persisting through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: The coastal flood risk will linger this week.

There is a continued risk for minor to near moderate coastal flooding through much of the week, mainly centered along the coastal portions of Charleston and Colleton Counties. Coastal flooding will be near moderate levels both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings with minor flooding Thursday and possibly Friday mornings. Much of the guidance supports minor flooding during this time, but tides have been consistently over performing, possibly due to some slightly slowing of the Gulf Stream offshore during the period of strong counter flow conditions experienced several days ago. So, the forecast for the next few mornings remain slightly above the P-ETSS 10% given recent trends. Right now, tides are expected to remain minor flood thresholds at Fort Pulaski. Fort Pulaski did reach minor flood levels with this morning's high tide (09/28), but a timely passing ship was likely what pushed the gage just past 9.5 ft MLLW.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Warm and dry conditions will extend through most of the week.

A departing trough will make way for an upper ridge axis shifting toward the Southeastern U.S. This will result in a relatively stable, rain-free pattern. High temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 80s daily, roughly 5 degrees above normal for late Sept/early Oct, with parts of Southeast Georgia reaching the lower 90s. Expect ideal radiational cooling tonight under clear skies and light winds, bringing lows down into the upper 50s inland and mid 60s closer to the coast. Lows will gradually warm each night after, hovering in the mid to upper 60s inland and low to mid 70s near the beaches.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Unsettled weather could return late week, and possibly persisting through the weekend.

The next decent chance of rain will be Friday as a cold front approaches. Rain chances will further increase this weekend as the front potentially stalls nearby and deep, tropical influenced moisture from the Gulf is ushered in. PWATs could jump to an impressive 2.25 inches (near daily record levels) or higher across the area. This event is still several days away so details are limited, but this could set the stage for heavy downpours and a heightened risk of flooding.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 18z Tuesday. Shallow ground fog is possible around sunrise Tuesday, but no significant visibility reductions are anticipated.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

MARINE

Through Saturday: Quiet marine conditions will prevail across the local waters through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Winds and seas will remain well below Small Craft Advisory thresholds across all marine zones. Winds will surge a bit each afternoon and evening, but speeds should mostly top out in the 10-15 knot range and will be strongest along the land/sea interface.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.