textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Aviation section has been updated for the 12z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Rain chances will increase Wednesday through the weekend, though no significant impacts are expected at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain chances will increase Wednesday through the weekend, though no significant impacts are expected at this time.

The latter half of the week marks the onset of a gradual transition toward a more unsettled pattern, although coverage could remain limited. A surface low tracking across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys could bring periods of isolated to scattered showers and/or thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday. Instability looks meager, so any thunderstorms that develop are expected to be weak and non-severe, with low potential for significant impacts. A second system could affect the region Friday into the weekend, bringing another round of showers/thunderstorms. Similarly, the risk of hazardous weather remains low at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

The 12z TAF period begins with stubborn MVFR stratus and stratocumulus across the area. MVFR conditions are very close to the TAF sites and could move in periodically through mid morning. Attention then turns to a large area of showers and storms approaching from the northwest. This activity is definitely on a distinct weakening trend, but could still produce isolated to scattered showers near KCHS and KJZI by late morning or midday. No notable impacts expected, but worth noting and monitoring. Then very late in the TAF period, another area of decaying showers and thunderstorms could move in from the west and produce showers near the TAF sites in the last few hours of the 12z TAF period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Possible flight restrictions within isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms that could impact the terminals during the latter half of this week.

MARINE

Through tonight: Northeast flow will continue this morning before the gradient falls apart and results in very weak flow into the afternoon. The sea breeze will produce some modest onshore flow, but speeds should mostly top out around 10 knots (perhaps 10-15 right along the land/sea interface). Overnight, southerly flow will increase and could reach 10-15 knots by sunrise Wednesday. Seas will steadily diminish through the period, highest this morning with 2-4 ft on average and up to 5 ft in the outer waters, becoming 2-3 ft late tonight.

Conditions are expected to decline Wednesday as a cold front approaches, with winds and seas nearing Small Craft Advisory levels. Southeast winds will gust 20-25 knots, with seas building to 3-5 ft. The latest forecast remains below SCA criteria; therefore, no headlines are anticipated. A more robust system later this week or this weekend could bring another period of elevated winds and seas, potentially leading to Small Craft Advisory or low-end gale conditions.

Rip Currents: Higher-period swell and gusty S/SW winds will result in a moderate risk of rip currents for all southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia beaches Wednesday.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.