textproduct: Charleston

SYNOPSIS

Weak high pressure will extend across the area into early next week. A surface front may sag into the area during the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

The entire forecast area was worked over with thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. KCLX detected an area of stratiform rain with isolated thunderstorms across the CHS Tri-county late this evening. This activity should dissipate by midnight. Rain-cooled temperatures should remain steady in the low to mid 70s through the rest of the night.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

A weak upper-lvl ridge will slowly build across the Gulf Coast this weekend into early next week. Simultaneously, a broad ridge will remain off the East Coast as rich moisture continues to advect into the region with PWAT values ~2.0 inches through early next week. This will be more than enough moisture to spark up some showers and thunderstorms each afternoon as the sea breeze pushes inland. Expect temperatures to be in the low to mid 90s on Saturday, with mid to upper 90s on Sunday and Monday. Heat index values be in the 100 to the 106 degree range, specifically on Sunday and Monday. As of right now, these values remain under Heat Advisory Criteria (108F), however we will continue to be monitor these values over the next couple days. With these temperatures and dewpoints in the the low to mid 70s, moderate instability should develop and it's possible to see strong to severe thunderstorms each afternoon. Overnight lows will remain mild and only dip into the low to mid 70s (with warmer temperatures closer to the beaches).

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

This current pattern will be slow to change as this weak upper-lvl ridge eventually begins to break down in the middle part of next week. Recent guidance suggests a weak surface trough, or front, could settle across the region with storm activity gradually increasing by the end of the week. Temperatures will remain near normal for this time of the year.

AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

TAFs: Late this evening, stratiform rain will remain across KCHS and KJZI through most of the remainder of the evening. Once the rainfall dissipates, conditions are forecast to remain VFR through the rest of the night. Winds may remain light and variable during the rainfall this evening, then should favor a SW direction late tonight. High resolution guidance indicates that sea breeze thunderstorms are likely again Saturday afternoon. Each TAF will feature TEMPOs between 18-22Z for thunderstorms and gusty winds.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR will mainly prevail throughout the period, however brief flight restrictions are possible within showers and thunderstorms that develop in the afternoon and/or evening.

MARINE

Through Tonight: High pressure will dominate across the marine waters, yielding southerly winds generally 10 to 15 knots. Some gusts along the direct coastline could approach 20 knots this afternoon in association with the afternoon sea breeze. Overnight winds will remain elevated as high pressure builds into the region, with winds around 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Seas will average 2-4 ft through tonight.

Saturday through Tuesday: Expect generally south-southwesterly winds at 5 to 10 kt to prevail throughout the period. It could become a bit gusty each afternoon with gusts up to 15 to 20 kt as the seabreeze pushes inland (gusts strongest across the immediate coastline and the Charleston Harbor). Southeasterly swell will continue to mix into the local waters over the weekend. Seas will be 2 to 3 ft, then decrease to 1 to 2 ft on Monday. Otherwise, no marine concerns expected.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.