textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Aviation Section has been updated for the 00z TAFs. Key Message 1 was adjusted.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) A cold front will advance through the region this afternoon bringing numerous showers and thunderstorms.

- 2) Cooler temperatures expected for the work week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front will advance through the region tonight.

The risk for deep convection is waning as a cold front approaches from the northwest. A few rumbles of thunder could still occur over the next few hours, but the risk for concentrated areas of tstms is diminishing. The cold front is timed to reach areas adjacent to the CSRA and Southern Midlands just after midnight, south coastal South Carolina into the I-16 corridor just before 3 AM Monday and clear McIntosh County, GA, by 6 AM Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Cooler temperatures expected for the work week.

Notably cooler temperatures are expected behind the cold front, as a wedge of high pressure sets up off the northeast coast into Wednesday. Mostly dry conditions are expected Monday through Wednesday, though a few showers along the lower GA coast aren't out of the question. An elevated fire risk is expected across inland areas Tuesday and Wednesday as dewpoints mix out during the afternoon and breezy NE winds occur.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

06/00z TAF Discussion: KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: The risk for tstms impacts at all terminals is ending. A few showers could linger near the terminals over the next few hours, but major impacts are unlikely. VFR cigs will generally prevail. An approaching cold front should reach all terminals in the 06-07z timeframe. Gusty north winds will develop just before daybreak and linger for much of the day Monday. Gusts in excess of 20 kt are likely.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Breezy NE winds Wednesday and Thursday.

MARINE

Tonight: The cold front is timed to push offshore late tonight, followed by a surge of gusty northeast winds. Small Craft Advisories outside the Charleston Harbor will be in effect by daybreak Monday.

Monday through Friday: A persistent northeast gradient will occur Monday into Saturday as high pressure builds to the northwest. The strongest winds are expected Tuesday into Wednesday when we could see Gale force winds over most of the marine area. Seas will steadily build through mid week, with some swells reaching 15-16 ft beyond 40 nm from shore late Wed. For now we have Small Craft Advisories for all waters except Charleston Harbor running through Saturday, though we'll likely need to replace these with Gales at some point as we get closer to the Tue/Wed time frame.

Rip Currents: Increase NE winds and building swells will result in an elevated rip current risk much of the upcoming week.

High Surf: High surf and beach erosion could impact the beaches Wednesday through Friday as seas build 8+ feet over the coastal waters. High Surf Advisories could be needed.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ350-352. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ354-374.