textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections have been updated.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) There is a High Risk of rip currents for the Georgia beaches through this evening.

- 2) Seasonable temperatures with dry conditions through Friday. Rain chances will gradually increase across southeast Georgia and the South Carolina Lowcountry this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: There is a High Risk of rip currents for the Georgia beaches through this evening.

The combination of breezy northeasterly winds and an elevated east northeast swell has increased the risk for rip currents. The strongest winds and highest seas are along our GA coast. This is where there is a High risk of rip currents through this evening. Along our SC coast, there is a Moderate risk of rip currents through this evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Seasonable temperatures with dry conditions through Friday. Rain chances will gradually increase across southeast Georgia and the South Carolina Lowcountry this weekend.

Near term guidance indicates that the center of a large 600 dm ridge will remain over the Deep South through Thursday, drifting over the ArkLaTex by Friday. Forecast soundings show an strong subsidence inversion across the forecast area today, centered at H75. The inversion is forecast to remain on Thursday and Friday, but will slowly weaken. Given the capping inversion and steady ENE sfc winds, the forecast will feature dry conditions through Friday. Cooler llvl thicknesses within the wedged sfc high should limit high temperatures to the upper 80s to around 90 today and tomorrow. On Friday, temperatures may warm a degree or two, with most of the forecast area forecast to see low 90s.

The GFS and ECMWF along with their AI counterparts indicates that a closed mid-level low will develop over the western Atlantic on Thursday, tracking SW over FL by Friday. This weekend, guidance indicates that the closed low will remain over the northern Gulf between the Mississippi Delta and FL. A plume of moisture is forecast to lift north across the Southeast U.S. this weekend. Warm and humid conditions should support increasing convection activity this weekend, focused along sea breeze each afternoon.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

12Z TAFs: VFR. A sfc ridge high pressure will remain across the terminal through the TAF period. Winds are forecast to remain from the east-northeast, speeds around 5 kts during the night, strengthening to 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts after 14Z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions with the chance of breezy northeasterly winds (gusts up to 20 kts possible) Thursday afternoon. Otherwise, it will be fairly dry through Friday, rain chances increase this weekend.

MARINE

Today and Tonight: An area of strong High pressure is located to our north. An elevated surface pressure gradient across our waters is bringing a strong northeast breeze and elevated wind-driven seas. These conditions should persist through the day, with the strongest winds along our GA coast. The gradient lowers this evening and overnight, causing winds and seas to trend lower. As a result, the Small Craft Advisories should expire for our SC waters this evening, then our GA waters overnight.

Thursday into the Weekend: High pressure should persist to our north through Thursday, then gradually weaken Friday and Saturday as weak Low pressure approaches from the Atlantic. Winds and seas will stay well below Small Craft criteria during this time frame.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for GAZ217-219-239- 241. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ360- 362. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ364-384.