textproduct: Charleston

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Key Message #2

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Mostly dry conditions expected into early next week with above normal temperatures.

- 2) Minor coastal flooding expected along portions of the southeast South Carolina coast with the evening high tide cycles into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Mostly dry conditions expected into early next week with above normal temperatures.

Overall, a summer-like pattern will prevail into early next week with ridging aloft and subtropical high pressure to the east at the surface.

Into early next week, the pattern will generally favor dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Highs today are expected to peak in the low 80s, increasing into the upper 80s by Sunday. Upper 80s will remain common through early to middle next week as well. Model guidance suggests there could be some diurnal convection Sunday afternoon and evening, though most of the coverage will remain west of the forecast area across southern and central GA.

As we progress into the middle and latter part of next week, guidance suggests the potential for diurnal convection will increase. A front will begin to approach from the west and northwest late in the period, which should help to increase moisture and instability across the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Minor coastal flooding expected along portions of the southeast South Carolina coast with the evening high tide cycles into early next week.

Astronomical influences including the new moon (5/16) and the perigee (5/17) will drive elevated tide levels through the weekend. The pattern will mostly favor onshore southeasterly flow which is modestly supportive of higher tide levels as well. The best chance for minor coastal flooding will come at the Charleston Harbor tide gage, with much lower potential at Fort Pulaski. The forecast advertises peak evening high tides around 7.2-7.3 ft MLLW for Saturday and Sunday evenings. Additional Coastal Flood Advisories will likely be needed through the weekend. Astronomical tide levels then begin to fall early next week and the potential for minor coastal flooding will diminish.

AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 0Z Sun.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

MARINE

Overall, quiet marine conditions will prevail across the local waters through the middle of next week. Subtropical high pressure to the east will drive onshore southeasterly flow each day, with wind speeds mostly topping out in the 10-15 knot range. Each afternoon and evening there could be some local enhancement along the land/sea interface with the diurnal sea breeze. Seas should average 2-3 feet through the period.

Rip Currents: The combination of influences from the upcoming new moon cycle and persistent onshore flow will produce an elevated risk of rip currents through the weekend. A Moderate Risk of rip currents is in effect at all beaches Saturday and Sunday.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.