textproduct: Caribou

SYNOPSIS

High pressure builds in from the west tonight and crests south of the region on Saturday. Another cold front will approach from the northwest on Sunday and cross the area Sunday afternoon. High pressure will build in from the west on Monday and crest over the area Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Cold front has moved well offshore with drier and much cooler air filtering down from Canada. NW winds continue to gust to 20-30 mph this afternoon and expect this to slowly diminish this evening as pressure gradient relaxes. Skies have essentially cleared over most of the area with only a few cumulus remaining as some mid-level moisture remains. Expect that with loss of daytime heating clouds will dissipate this evening.

Mins expected to drop into the lower 50s over the North Woods and upper 50s over Downeast. Winds will likely decouple across most of the area tonight. Surface high will build offshore late tonight allowing winds to back toward the southwest on Saturday. Highs during the day will climb back toward normal values. Diurnal cu is expected in the afternoon with mid-high clouds increasing during the evening hours as next surface front approaches from the north.

Upper lvl trough will drop into eastern Canada Saturday night with subtle s/wvs bringing chance for showers across the far north late in the evening before pressing southward.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Sunday: The upper level trof shifts across the midwest into New England. Models are in better agreement with the cold front timing. However, the timing and amount of QPF is still different across the extended models. Vorticity shows a vort max moving across the south, so sided with the NBM rain fall amounts being higher in the south for Sunday.

Sunday night: The low pressure system will intensify and pick up speed. This will push the rest of the rain out of the region after midnight. The cold air behind the front is expected to be much more substantial with 925mb model temps around 6C. In addition, with clearing later in the night, temps could drop into the upper 40s in the north and low to mid 50s in the south.

Monday: High pressure settles back into the region. Expect partly sunny skies with breezy NW winds. Temps should each into the mid 60s in the north and low 70s in the south.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

High pressure is expected to dominated the region through the rest of the week. Temps should warm back towards the upper 70 to low 80 by the end of week. The next round of rain shower may reach the area this weekend, but extend models are very inconsistent with the times and track. Decided to go with slight chance with the NBM.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

NEAR TERM: VFR at all terminals next 24 hours with SKC expected through Saturday morning. Cannot rule out SCT VFR developing late morning and early afternoon. Clouds gradually lower Saturday night from north to south but remain VFR. Exception will be Downeast terminals late with potential for MVFR/IFR cigs to move in toward Sunday morning.

SHORT TERM: Sunday...MVFR north. VFR south. Light SW wind.

Sunday night...VFR, briefly dropping to MVFR at times in showers over the north. VFR south. NW wind becoming gusty.

Monday...VFR. gusty NW wind.

Monday night...VFR. Light NW wind.

Tuesday...VFR. Light NW wind.

Wed...VFR. SW winds.

MARINE

NEAR TERM: Winds and seas below small craft advisory conditions tonight through Saturday night. Seas may approach 4ft over the outer waters late Saturday night.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions through this time period.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029- 030. MARINE...None.