textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Increasing confidence in lower QPF amounts Wednesday-Thursday

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain moving in from the west with locally heavy rainfall possible over central and northern portions of the area early this morning. Flooding is not expected.

2) Chance for showers Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as a cold front crosses the area.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain moving in from the west with locally heavy rainfall possible over central and northern portions of the area early this morning. Flooding is not expected.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Occluded front sitting just to the east of James Bay and the Ontario/Quebec border as of 05z. Most of the heavy rain is just now entering into nw portions of the CWA. This looks to be the co-located with the low-level jet and gradient of higher pwats per latest TPW satellite imagery. Guidance is now indicating this will shift east thru 12z this morning. At the same time surface boundary enhancing lift in srn Quebec, just to the north of New England and expect this to track into the Central Highlands within the next 2-3 hours. As it heads into the western Maine mountains orographic may help enhance heavy rainfall early this morning thus have kept heaviest totals thru 12z over the Central Highlands.

LLJ pushes east into NB by 15z this morning with steady rain coming to an end. However with front still lingering back to the west there will be plenty of forcing to keep showers going over most of the area this afternoon and evening.

Have continued with trend of prior shift with slgt chc to lochc pops this afternoon and evening before increasing to likely tonight as coastal low rides to the south of the waters overnight. Patchy fog expected over most of the area tonight as occluded front pretty much dies in place. Downeast likely to see areas of fog late tonight with humid airmass remaining in place.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Chance for showers Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as a cold front crosses the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... As the low pressure system exits over the Maritimes, the next low pressure system centered over the Hudson Bay begins to track E. The associated cold front is expected to move into the region Wednesday evening and exit Thursday afternoon. Ensemble models have been trending towards a drier solution with isolated showers. Little QPF is expected with these showers. There is a possibility for a few rumbles of thunder but nothing severe.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 12z...VFR, lowering to MVFR/IFR toward 12z in low cigs and rain.

Today...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Rain may be heavy at times early in the morning. Isolated tstm may be possible in the afternoon but confidence remains too low to include. S winds 10-20kts. LLWS at FL020 from 200 at 30-35kts at Aroostook terminals.

Tonight...IFR or lower with fog developing all terminals. S winds 5kts become near calm late.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with MVFR in showers and an isolated tstm in the afternoon. ENE winds 5-10kts.

Tuesday night: VFR. Light and variable winds.

Wednesday-Wednesday night: VFR early, with increasing chance for MVFR/IFR for north terminals into the afternoon as isolated showers and thunderstorms move into the area. SW winds 5 to 10 kts.

Thursday-Thursday night: VFR. Winds W to NW at 5 to 10 kts, light and variable overnight.

Friday: VFR. W winds 5-10 kts.

MARINE

Winds remain aob 20kts over all waters thru Tuesday. Seas increase to near 4ft this afternoon before diminishing this evening. Seas remain between 1-3 feet into Tuesday afternoon before increasing above 5ft over waters from 25-60NM.

Winds and seas below SCA criteria mid to late week. Generally SW winds, gusts to 15 kt, over the waters.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.