textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast

KEY MESSAGES

1) The threat for localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding continues this afternoon and evening, mainly over western areas.

2) Cold front approaches Saturday night and passes through Sunday into Monday, bringing widespread rain and thunderstorm chances.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...The threat for localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding continues this afternoon and evening, mainly over western areas.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Backdoor cold front is now in eastern Aroostook as seen on visible satellite imagery. Storms developed in between the backdoor cold front and the eastward moving cold front coming in fm Quebec. Southerly flow over central and wrn portions of the area has continued to funnel anomalous moisture into the Central Highlands and the North Woods. In fact 12z GYX sounding set a record with a PW value of 1.91 inches.

Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for wrn zones through 07z tonight due to high PW values, small Corfidi Vectors and efficient warm rain processes. The threat for flash flooding, with rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour, continues through the time of fropa which looks to occur over part of CWA by 07z.

KEY MESSAGE 2..Cold front approaches Saturday night and passes through Sunday into Monday, bringing widespread rain and thunderstorm chances.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Shortwave over the Great Lakes region moves towards Maine and enters New England by Sunday. Rain moves in from west to east, lasting Sunday into late Monday. Instability on Sunday ranges from between 500-800 J/kg with steep low-level lapse rates, however mid-level lapse rates are meager. Instability may be limited by capping inversion in the afternoon but cannot rule out isolated thunderstorm development, mainly over the north and west. Prolonged southerly flow off the Gulf of Maine is anticipated to keep the Downeast region stable. Roughly anticipating about one half to three quarters of an inch of rain with these showers. Could be some locally higher spots of higher rain totals in regions favoring thunderstorm development.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

This afternoon...VFR/MVFR at BGR. BHB likely to see VFR before plummeting to IFR after 21z as marine layer moves back north. Aroostook terminals to see IFR continues remainder of the afternoon and overnight. SSE winds 5-10kts.

Saturday...IFR/LIFR with FG/BR in the AM becoming VFR/MVFR late morning. VFR by afternoon. SE winds shifting WNW 5-15kt.

Saturday Night...VFR at KHUL/KBGR/KBHB. Chance for MVFR and isolated VCTS at KFVE/KCAR/KPQI. Winds light and variable.

Sunday-Sunday Night...MVFR/IFR north due to rain showers and potential thunderstorms in the morning and day. VFR/MVFR Downeast terminals. S winds with gusts 15-25KT possible Sunday. LLWS possible Sunday night. Monday...MVFR in rain showers in the morning. Potential for isolated thunder Downeast terminals in the morning. Potential for isolated thunder at KFVE and KCAR Monday evening. S winds, shifting WSW by afternoon, with gusts 15-20KT possible.

Monday night-Wednesday...VFR. W winds, 5-10KT, gusts to 20kts Tuesday afternoon. Winds becoming SW Tuesday night increasing to 5-10kts Wednesday.

MARINE

Winds and seas will be below small craft levels all waters through the weekend. Winds and seas approach small craft levels over the waters out to 25NM Sunday night. Conditions drop below small craft levels on Monday afternoon and remain that way into the middle of next week. Fog will reduce visibilities over the waters tonight.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Flood Watch through late tonight for MEZ001-003-004-010-031. MARINE...None.