textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A few storms are possible later this afternoon over the St John Valley and the North Woods.

2) Areas of fog tonight could impact travel.

3) There is the potential for widespread rainfall from Sunday into Monday. It is not certain how much, if any, relief this could bring to the developing drought at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A few storms are possible later this afternoon over the St John Valley and the North Woods.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A 500mb shortwave is approaching from the NW across Quebec today with a surface cold front ahead of it. As the cold front approaches Maine/Quebec border later this afternoon, it will begin to wash out across the region. This should provide some instability but given the late timing of the surface lift not expecting much of the shower activity to make it much more east than the St. John Valley and North Woods. Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm mainly confined to the North Woods north of Moosehead Region to the Allagash Wilderness Waterway and points west to Quebec border. Not expecting any significant help with the ongoing worsening D0-D1 drought conditions. The front will washout over the CWA tonight and likely be able to produce just a little lift for an isolated shower on Thursday mainly over the north when a weak vort max pivots over the area. Most locations over the next 48 hours remain dry.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Areas of fog tonight could impact travel.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Light winds and lingering low-level moisture should lead to areas of fog again tonight. In general, we don't think it will be quite as widespread or dense as last night, but still expect some fog, mainly in low-lying areas.

KEY MESSAGE 3...There is the potential for areawide rainfall from Sunday into Monday. It is not certain how much, if any, relief this could bring to the developing drought at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure system approaches from the Great Lakes on Sunday, moving into Quebec by Monday. Additionally, a surface low pressure system slides along the coast on Sunday, bringing some additional moisture along the coast. Global models are not hinting at much instability, with most atmospheric soundings just looking moist. Regardless, not anticipating relief from drought with these showers, as most model guidance is keeping precipitation totals modest. Convection along frontal boundary could result in some higher rain totals, but will need to monitor how regional models pick up on this system to see if environment will be favorable enough to support thunderstorms. As of now, confidence lies in rain falling, but confidence is lower in how much, and the potential for thunderstorms.

AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Rest of Today...VFR conditions expected. Light winds except S 10 kts BHB/BGR. Small chance of a shower at northern terminals and perhaps a thunderstorm at FVE, but confidence is low.

Tonight...VFR early. BR/FG will likely develop again with light and variable winds. Confidence is low on exact term impacts.

Thursday...VFR. Afternoon VCSH at the Aroostook terms. W winds 5-10kt.

Thursday night-Saturday: VFR. Chance for overnight valley fog Thursday and Friday nights. Winds less than 10 kts.

Saturday night-Sunday: MVFR/IFR in rain showers. Slight chance for thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. SE/E winds 5-10 kts.

MARINE

Winds/seas remaining less than 25 kts/5 ft through Saturday, then a chance (about 30 percent) of winds or seas reaching 25 kts/5 ft Sunday/Monday. Fog likely the next few nights, though the best shot is tonight.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.