textproduct: Caribou

SYNOPSIS

High pressure crosses the region today. A warm front passes Saturday, followed by a cold front crossing the region Saturday night. High pressure then builds toward the region through Monday night and crosses the region Tuesday. Low pressure approaches on Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Main Point: * Cold lasts through tonight; more mild weather on Saturday

8:06AM Update...Cold Weather Advisory has been allowed to expire. Air temperatures slowly rising and winds are relaxing across the area. No other updates.

Discussion: High pressure will continue to build into the area through the day today. As the high pressure builds in, winds will continue to decrease, becoming light and variable by tonight. Cold temperatures will continue as continental polar airmass remains established over the forecast area, and highs may only lift into the low to mid teens through most of the CWA. Though winds will be decreasing, winds that remain through the day could keep wind chills in the single digits through the afternoon.

Lows tonight will fall to around zero across the north, and the single digits above zero Downeast as cold air remains in the area. More mild conditions will return to the forecast area on Saturday as return flow on the backside of the ridge of high pressure brings warmer air into the region. Highs on Saturday may lift into the 20s across the north and lower 30s Downeast. A weak shortwave may spin up over the Gulf of Maine late in the day on Saturday, and this could bring some showers along the Coastal Downeast region and then up through Washington County late.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Key Messages -Another blast of cold arctic air arrives Sunday behind a cold front -Weak coastal low may produce some light snow in southern areas Sunday night

On Saturday night, some rain showers along the immediate coast and snow showers over the interior Downeast will slowly move out of the area by morning. Meanwhile, an arctic cold front will approach NW Maine and pass through the state overnight through early Sunday morning. Not currently expecting much, if any, precipitation associated with the front as it will be weakening and have very little moisture associated with it. N/NW flow behind the front will bring in arctic air resulting in temperatures of 5 to 10 degrees below normal through Sunday night.

Also on Sunday night a shortwave trough approaching from the west should result in a weak low pressure system passing just to our south out over the waters. Ensemble solutions are expressing considerable uncertainty in terms of the strength and timing of the system. Some members show a moderate intensity coastal low while others show a very weak system or hardly anything at all. Where there is confidence at this time is in saying that this should be an all snow event and it will likely not be a highly impactful system. A few inches of snow in the Bangor and Downeast regions appear to be the most likely solution at this time.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Key Messages -Well below normal temperatures expected early next week with the coldest temperatures Monday/Monday night

On Monday, the weak coastal system clears out of the area with blustery NW flow developing in its wake that will bring in more arctic air. Temperatures will remain well below normal Monday and Monday night with guidance continuing to suggest near or subzero overnight lows. Temperatures remain below normal on Tuesday but begin a warming trend that will last through mid week.

High pressure builds in through Monday night and becomes centered over the area Tuesday morning. The next system is possible Wednesday night into Thursday but there is a lot of uncertainty regarding its strength, track, and intensity,

AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

NEAR TERM: VFR conditions continue across all terminals today through tonight and into the day on Saturday. Gusty W winds will continue to decrease through the day. Winds become light and variable overnight tonight, and S around 5 kts on Saturday.

SHORT TERM:

Saturday night...VFR/MVFR. Isolated/scattered snow showers, especially southern terminals. Light S/SW winds become W/NW late at 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday...VFR. NW winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday night...VFR/MVFR north, MVFR/IFR south. Light snow southern terminals with snow showers northern terminals. N winds around 5 knots.

Monday...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR early at southern terminals. A chance of snow early. N/NW winds 10 to 15 knots.

Monday night...VFR. West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Tuesday...VFR early, then VFR/MVFR. W/SW winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south.

Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers. S/SW winds around 5 knots.

MARINE

NEAR TERM: Wind gusts 25 to 30 kts continuing across the coastal waters through around 12z before diminishing below SCA levels through the rest of the day. Seas will also continue to decrease, falling below 5 ft shortly after winds decrease. Conditions will remain below small craft advisory criteria then through Saturday. Brief freezing spray possible early this morning but will quickly diminish as winds decrease.

SHORT TERM: Winds near SCA criteria on the outer waters Saturday night, decreasing below criteria Sunday morning. Winds increase to SCA criteria Sunday night and to possible gales Monday. Winds may subside to below SCA criteria briefly early Tuesday before winds/seas increase to above criteria again late Tuesday/Tuesday night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.