textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Increased winds for Thursday due to the LLJ

KEY MESSAGES

1) Localized flooding is possible Thursday through Thursday night.

2) Showery Friday into the weekend along with a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Localized flooding is possible Thursday through Thursday night.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The next low pressure system will move into the area from the southwest on Thursday, with rainfall moving into the Central Highlands and Bangor region through mid Thursday morning, then spreading across the rest of the forecast area through Thursday afternoon. Widespread wetting rain will continue into Thursday night, with at least an inch of rain expected for most of the forecast area. PWATs in excess of 1.2 inches combined with a marginal warm cloud layer of just under 10 kft could support efficient rainfall rates, especially with training heavier showers. Localized flooding is most likely in any areas where heavier rain showers train within the developing LLJ Thursday afternoon and evening.

The developing LLJ around 925 mb will approach 35 to 45 kts. These winds may get mixed down with the rain, resulting in gusts 30 to 35 mph possible.

Widespread rain showers will end over most of the area late Thursday night as a cold front crosses the CWA. Closer to the center of the occluding low pressure, the northern half of the forecast area could see continued rain showers through the day on Friday as well.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showery Friday into the weekend along with a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... An upper level low will cross the region Friday into the weekend while a series of disturbances move around the low. Cold air aloft will help increase diurnal instability. Unsettled conditions with a chance of showers will occur Friday into the weekend. A slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms will also exist. The better shower/thunderstorm chances should occur across northern areas. Temperatures will be at near normal, to slightly below normal, levels.

AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Rest of this afternoon...Variable conditions with any showers/thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR. South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots with gusts up to around 15 knots.

Tonight...Across northern areas, VFR. Across Downeast areas, VFR early. MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR late with patchy fog. South/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday...Across northern areas, VFR/MVFR early then lowering to IFR/LIFR with rain developing. Across Downeast areas, MVFR/IFR early then lowering to IFR/LIFR with rain developing. South/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Southerly low level wind shear during the afternoon.

Thursday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, with rain. South/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots, becoming southwest. Southerly low level wind shear early.

Friday...Across northern areas, MVFR/IFR with showers. Slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. VFR/MVFR Downeast. Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Friday night...VFR/MVFR. Showers likely north. Southwest/west winds 10 to 15 knots.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers. Slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm north. West/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots, becoming west/northwest.

Saturday night...VFR/MVFR. A slight chance/chance of showers mostly north. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming north/northwest 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers. Slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. North/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming variable.

MARINE

Wind gusts should be 20 kts or less and seas 4 ft or less on all waters out to 60 NM through tonight. Winds and seas will increase Thursday through Thursday night. Gusts could approach 35 kts Thursday afternoon on the outer waters out to 60 NM, and a gale watch is in place for these zones. Elsewhere, gusts could reach 25 to 30 kts Thursday.

Seas peak at 6 to 9 ft Thursday night with max wind gusts 25-30 kts on the coastal and intracoastal waters and 30-35 kts on the outer waters.

Small craft advisory conditions possible on the intra-coastal and coastal water Friday into Saturday. Conditions below small craft advisory levels Saturday night into Sunday. A chance of showers Saturday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MEZ015>017. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ050>052. Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for ANZ080-081.