textproduct: Caribou

SYNOPSIS

An area of low pressure passes well to the north today, with a cold front moving through the area this evening. Weak high pressure then builds in through Thursday morning, then slides to the east Thursday night. Another low pressure system passes to our northwest Friday, followed by another cold front moving across the area Friday night. High pressure builds in Saturday with another area of low pressure passing north of the area on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Key Messages -Spotty freezing rain and/or sleet possible early-mid morning across the north -Warming temps on Thursday with low-level jet developing late

Upr-lvl disturbance rotating twd the srn tip of James Bay as of 06z with sfc low over west central Quebec. Cold front is easily identifiable from sfc obs as it extends to the southwest into eastern Lake Superior. Flow is out of the southwest over the CWA leading to increasing temps and dwpts. Mid-high clouds overspreading the region with lower clouds to the north producing light snow in warm advection.

Lift associated with waa and s/wv moving thru looks to bring snow to the north by mid-morning. Precip looks to make it as far south as a Houlton-Moosehead line in the afternoon and while CAMS are not showing widespread precip acrs the north until after about 15 or 16z, it appears that temps in the warm layer increase to just above 0C before precip really gets going. Thus have cut back on mention of much in the way of sleet and/or frzg rain but cannot completely rule it out. Most of the precip should fall in the form of snow especially during the afternoon as boundary layer cools. However, at onset of precip cannot rule out a wintry mix over the north. High temps should climb to just near freezing or slightly above acrs the north with Downeast in the upr 30s to lwr 40s.

Cold front will move thru the area tonight and offshore by 06z tonight. Skies will clear with winds remaining mixed with lows dropping toward the single digits over the north and upr teens to lwr 20s elsewhere.

High pressure crests over the area Thursday morning with srly winds drawing in warm and humid air ahead of next system due in by the end of the week. High temps wil climb into the middle 30s in the north and lower 40s along the coast. Low level jet will punch into the area at the tail end of the near term period.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Key Messages: 1) Strong winds are likely with damaging winds possible Friday, particularly along the coast where a High Wind Watch has been issued. 2) Rain is expected across the entire area Friday along with significant snowmelt. Any flooding issues are expected to be minor.

1) Upper level models show a deepening trof moving across New England with an intensifying surface low. This should push the LLJ into the waters beginning Thursday night and continuing through Friday. As the surface cold front moves closer to the region, the low continues to intensify, causing the pressure gradients to tighten and the LLJ to increase. This is expected to produce advisory level winds across Downeast. Elsewhere should see gusty winds.

2) Throughout Thursday night, a warm front will stretch to the north, bringing S winds and a warm tropical airmass. Expect anti-diurnal warming throughout the night with temps reaching the 40s by sunrise on Friday. For Friday, temps should continue to rise into the low 50s across the region. In addition, rain will move in ahead of the cold front, bringing up to 1 inch of rain. Significant snowpack loss is expected, especially for areas along and southeast of I-95 and US-1. The combination of existing snow absorbing rainfall and antecedent drought conditions will limit the flooding threat to poor drainage areas.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Key Messages: 1) Strong, gusty NW winds Friday night into Saturday morning may lead to isolated power outages.

2) Temperatures fall below freezing Friday night, refreezing any lingering standing water.

3) A light snow accumulation is likely Saturday night into Sunday morning for much of the area.

1) The exiting cold front and the approaching surface ridge should shift the LLJ more to the north on Friday night. Expected gusty winds throughout Friday night and into Saturday morning.

2) In addition to the gusty NW winds with the frontal passage, a cold airmass is expected to follow the front. The main concern will be a refreezing of any standing water left over from the rain. Though the winds should dry out much of the roadways, any remaining water should freeze. Extend models are starting to trend with a faster exit of the cold front, thus giving concern to a faster cooling for Friday night. Upcoming CAMs models should give a better idea.

3) The quick moving upper level trof should move the next low pressure system towards the region. Models are fairly inconsistent with the track and timing of the system, so stayed with the NBM.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

NEAR TERM: VFR for Downeast terminals, as well as HUL next 24 hours. Cannot rule out VCSH at HUL between 20-01z but terminal will be on far southern edge of precipitation. Winds increase from the southwest this morning before becoming westerly and gusty.

Northern terminals should see MVFR conditions develop by afternoon, with FVE possibly experiencing IFR restrictions late in the afternoon and evening.

Improvement to VFR expected Thursday morning, continuing through the day.

SHORT TERM: Thursday night-Friday...IFR in rain, possibly lower with areas of fog. LLWS late Thursday night and Friday. Winds S 10-20 kts with gusts to 30kts, increasing to 15-25 kts with gusts to 35 kts north and 20-30 kts with gusts to 45-50 kts for and BGR and coastal terminals.

Friday night to Saturday...MVFR north, VFR Downeast. Winds NW 15-25kts with gusts to 35-40kts, decreasing Saturday afternoon.

Saturday Night to Sunday: MVFR with a period of IFR possible in -SN. Winds S at 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts during the day Sunday.

MARINE

NEAR TERM: Gale force winds will continue over all waters today and this evening. Seas will climb to as high as 8 to 13 feet this afternoon before diminishing this evening. Conditions, both winds and waves, will drop below small craft levels on Thursday before ramping back up to SCA and eventually gales in the short term.

SHORT TERM: Gale force from the south Thursday evening. Winds then shift from the west late Friday afternoon, remaining at gale force through early Saturday morning before falling below SCA levels by Saturday night. Seas increase above 5ft late Tuesday night to as high as 12ft over the outer waters Wednesday afternoon. Seas diminish slightly before ramping up again toward 15ft Friday afternoon and remain elevated above 5ft through Saturday evening.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ050>052.