textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Updated aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Low relative humidity expected today and Thursday which could lead to increased fire weather concerns in areas with no snow pack.

2) Chance for low relative humidity and gusty winds Sunday afternoon. This could lead to increased fire weather concerns in areas with no snow pack.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Low relative humidity expected today and Thursday which may lead to increased fire weather concerns in areas with no snow pack.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure ridged south of Maine will bring dry conditions and low relative humidity to the region today and Thursday. Relative humidity values this afternoon will fall below 30 percent across southern and central portions of the region, with 30 to 35 percent values across northern areas. Wind gusts today could be up to around 15 mph across southern areas and up to around 20 mph across northern areas. Afternoon relative humidity values Thursday will generally range from 30 to 35 percent across the region inland from the Downeast coast. Higher humidity values will occur along the Downeast coast with onshore winds. Southerly wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph are expected Thursday with the strongest winds during the afternoon. Fire weather concerns are possible both today and Thursday in areas with no snow cover.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Chance for low relative humidity and gusty winds Sunday afternoon. This could lead to increased fire weather concerns in areas with no snow pack.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... NW flow aloft, with the region on the east (front) side of a deep layered ridge, should allow for continued drying of the low levels. As a result, have a 30-50% chance for relative humidity levels less than 30% Sunday afternoon. In addition, a tightening surface pressure gradient, and increasing winds in the low levels results in a 30-50% chance of wind gusts greater than 20 mph Sunday afternoon. The combination of these two factors, could result in increased fire weather concerns Sunday afternoon, especially in areas with no snow pack. This should mainly be from the Central Highlands and Southern Aroostook on south.

AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Today...VFR. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming west/southwest 5 to 10 knots.

Tonight through Thursday...VFR. South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots tonight. South winds around 10 knots increasing to 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to around 25 knots Thursday.

Thursday night: Chance of MVFR or lower. LLWS possible.

Friday-Friday night: IFR or lower possible. MW winds G15-20KT possible Friday night

Saturday: Becoming VFR throughout from NW to SE. NW winds G15-25KT possible.

Saturday night-Sunday: VFR. NW winds G15-20KT possible on Sunday.

MARINE

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the waters through 9 AM. Thereafter, conditions are expected to be below small craft advisory levels through Thursday.

SCA conditions are possible Thursday night and should be just be below SCA levels on Friday on all waters. Conditions should be just below SCA levels Friday night on the coastal ocean waters east of Schoodic Point, and solidly below SCA levels elsewhere. All waters should remain below SCA levels through Sunday. There then is a chance of SCA conditions developing on all waters Sunday night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for ANZ050>052.