textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

730PM update...Update for 00z aviation discussion

Issued Coastal Flood Statement for the high tide tonight for Coastal Washington County.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Coastal Flooding of the most vulnerable locations along Passamaquoddy Bay is possible around the time of high tide tonight.

2) Localized flooding is possible Thursday through Thursday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Coastal Flooding of the most vulnerable locations along Passamaquoddy Bay is possible around the time of high tide tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Persistent SE flow has built tidal departures to around 0.5 above normal. This will be sufficient to bring the total water level around Eastport to between 22 and 22.5 ft, which could cause the flooding of the most vulnerable locations along Passamaquoddy Bay, that are susceptible to flooding with a southeast flow. The time of high tide at Eastport is 1148pm. A coastal flood statement has been issued from 10pm to 1am tonight for Coastal Washington County to highlight this threat.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Localized flooding is possible Thursday through Thursday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A large and seasonably strong low pressure system is expected to progress NE across the Great lakes and into Canada on Thursday. Rain is generally expected to begin by mid-day Thursday but some uncertainty still exists in the global models. Guidance is showing a strong low-level jet developing Thursday evening which will bring ample low-level moisture into the area and could contribute to some decent rainfall amounts. Ensembles are currently suggesting PWAT values approaching the 90th percentile. As a result, some localized flooding, especially where any thunderstorms may develop, is possible. It is too early to be more definitive on how great the risk is. The questions will be how much moisture can advect into the area ahead of the system. Also, if the low retrogrades at all, then the rain bands will slow down, allowing them to stick around localized areas, which could increase the flooding risk.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Tonight...No clear indication with regard to MVFR cigs or even low vsbys developing at terminals tonight. Have TEMPOd in MVFR cigs at CAR, PQI and HUL but confidence is very low in predominant MVFR cigs. FVE should experience BKN025 through 05z before rising to 030 and then becoming VFR after 11z.

Downeast terminals should remain VFR overnight, though BHB may experience MVFR/IFR restrictions at some points overnight however confidence is too low to include in terminal forecast.

Winds light and variable at terminals this evening or light from the north. NW flow around 10kts develops at all terminals after sunrise, with gusts of 15-20kts developing Tuesday morning.

Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday night: VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts with gusts 15-20kts possible Tuesday afternoon.

Thursday-Thursday night: IFR/LIFR in locally heavy rain. S-SE winds 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts possible. LLWS possible at southern terminals.

Friday: Improvement to MVFR at southern terminals early Friday morning, then gradual improvement throughout the day. Locally heavy rainfall possible early. WSW winds 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts.

Saturday: MVFR/IFR in rain showers. W winds 5-10 kts.

MARINE

Winds, including gusts, should be 20 kt or less and seas 4 ft or less on all waters out to 60NM through Tuesday night.

Winds and seas will increase Thursday through Thursday night. Winds for intercoastal and coastal waters could reach gusts up to 30 kts. Gusts up to 35 kts in the waters out to 60nm. Seas Thursday night should increase to 5-8 ft, then gradually decrease on Friday to 4-6 ft Friday afternoon. Expected a period of 7-8 sec for Thursday night-Friday with a S fetch.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.