textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Updated aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The next round of rain showers is expected for the end of next week, though drought relief is unlikely.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...The next round of rain showers is expected for the end of next week, though drought relief is unlikely.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure will build south of the area through the middle of the week prior to the next low pressure system approaching from the west late this week. With the low centered south of the area, the pressure gradient may struggle to relax over the CWA, particularly across the north, and winds could remain breezy through the middle of the week with increasing winds by Thursday afternoon as the pressure gradient increases due to the approaching trough of low pressure.

The timing of the cold front through the end of the week remains uncertain, and with the timing uncertainty is also strength uncertainty. Generally speaking, the FROPA is expected to cross the area sometime on Friday, though whether that is early Friday morning or late Friday night is still up in the air. The GFS and UKMET have the slowest solution at this time, holding the front west of the area until beyond sunset, while the CMC and ICON models bring the front through around sunrise on Friday. Due to this timing uncertainty, this forecast reflects a blend via the NBM, with increasing precip chances through the daylight hours on Friday. Moistures support with this feature will likely be lacking, keeping rainfall showery and limiting rain totals throughout the forecast area, limiting any drought relief potential.

AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Today...Occasional LIFR this morning. Otherwise, MVFR/IFR. Occasional rain or showers. Patchy fog. North/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots with gusts up to around 15 knots.

Tonight...MVFR/IFR early, then VFR/MVFR late. Showers ending during the evening. North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming variable.

Wednesday...MVFR in the early morning, then VFR for the rest of the day. Light and variable winds.

Wednesday night - Thursday...VFR across all terminals. Winds light and variable overnight, increasing out of the SW to 10 to 15 kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts Thursday afternoon.

Thursday night - Friday...VFR/MVFR in rain showers. W winds 5 to 10 kts shifting NW behind a cold front.

Friday night - Saturday...VFR across all terminals. NW winds 5 to 10 kts.

MARINE

Winds and seas below SCA levels today through Wednesday. Seas generally 3-4 ft. Chance for coastal-25nm waters to see a few 5ft seas Thursday night into early Friday. Chance for rain Friday into Friday night which could limit visibility. N/NW winds shifting SW Wednesday night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.