textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Blended NBM with Hi-Res models for POPs Tonight into Sunday to account for hi-res models showing the snow shower chances under the upper level energy.

- Increased sky coverage for the weekend to account for upper level energy aloft which typically leads to a lot of stratocu.

- Cancelled the Small Craft Advisory on the Intra-Coastal and Coastal Waters as winds continue to relax.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Couple rounds of isolated to scattered rain/snow showers across the north this weekend, with accumulation possible across higher elevations.

2) Persistent dry conditions next week will lead to potential worsening of the ongoing water resources drought impacting Eastern and Northern Maine.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Couple rounds of isolated to scattered rain/snow showers across the north this weekend, with accumulation possible across higher elevations.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... An upper low will move south toward the region tonight, then cross the forecast area Saturday. The low will bring isolated to scattered snow and rain showers to mostly northern and northwest portions of the forecast area along and northwest of the Longfellow Mtns. The snow showers could possibly produce light accumulations, generally less than an inch, across mostly higher terrain areas.

The closed upper level low exits to the south Saturday night, followed by an upper level shortwave passing from south to north during the day on Sunday in its wake. These two systems could bring some isolated to scattered snow showers to mainly the north Saturday night and Sunday (with rain or snow showers Sunday afternoon across portions of Eastern Aroostook, and Northern Penobscot). While any accumulations should generally be at most a few tenths of an inch, any stronger snow showers on Sunday could produce a quick inch or two across elevations above 1000 ft especially along . The best chance for this would be for areas along and west of Route 11 north of Ashland and across Central and Northern Piscataquis County.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Persistent dry conditions next week will lead to potential worsening of the ongoing water resources drought impacting Eastern and Northern Maine.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Monday a departing trof will pivot out over the North Atlantic and a large 582dam 500mb high pressure dome begins to shift east over the Ohio River Valley. This large scale ridging will control our weather for all of next week. The northern stream jet will be pushed north into Central Quebec which will prevent any true weather systems to impact the area. This 500mb ridge will feature highly anomalous heights generally 1.5-2.5SD over the Great Lakes but will slowly begin to breakdown as it shifts over our area. This will lead to 40s-50s for highs and upper 20s to 30s for lows with dry conditions. A few members of the ECMWF/GFS/Canadian ensembles suggest a possible weak front on Wed-Thu timeframe but very little reflection for precip. Although it will be dry there is no significant indication of fire weather concerns but given the dry dead vegetation will need to keep an eye on conditions.

Overall these dry conditions will likely lead to some worsening of the ongoing water resources drought impacting the CWA. Latest US Drought Monitor has D2-D3 (Severe-Extreme) conditions across the Central Highlands, Northern Maine with the worst areas in the Quebec/Maine borderlands. D1 (Moderate) drought in Coastal Hancock to Bangor to Lincoln and east to the St. Croix River. D0 (Abnormally Dry) for Coastal Washington and interior Hancock counties. Surface to 6 feet soil moisture remains heavily impacted from the 2025-2026 drought with soil moisture in the 2-10th percentile range (Much Below Normal). Surface to 4 inches is already once again drying back out and dropping back into the 5-10th percentile (Much Below Normal). Verifying this with USGS Groundwater gages at Clayton Lake and Millinocket sitting at Record Low conditions (33-34 years POR). Calais and Kenduskeag sitting at much below normal and Fort Kent/Hadley Lakes sitting at below normal conditions. Streamflows that recovered some during the recent rainfall are trending back downward. Of the 38 monitored USGS stream gages in the CWA 22 of these gages are at Below to Much Below Normal.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Rest of Today...MVFR cigs across FVE, CAR and PQI. VFR becoming MVFR at HUL by sunset. N-NNW winds 5-10kt with a few gusts up to 15kt.

Tonight...Expecting variable MVFR/IFR cigs across FVE/CAR/PQI with VCSH (snow showers). Low confidence in vsby reductions from snow showers but cannot rule out brief drops 3-5nm. MVFR cigs at HUL and VFR at BGR/BHB. Winds light and variable tonight.

Saturday...Variable conditions with any snow and rain showers across mostly northern/northwestern areas. Otherwise, MVFR north and VFR south. BGR likely to drop to BKN030-035 tomorrow but VFR at BHB. North/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots.

Saturday night-Sunday...MVFR possible at northern terminals in any snow showers, otherwise VFR. NW winds G15-25KT possible Sunday afternoon.

Sunday night-Tuesday night...VFR. NW winds G15-20KT possible during the day Monday and W winds G15-20KT possible during the day Tuesday.

Wednesday...VFR, possible MVFR at northern terms. W winds 10-15kt with a few gusts possible to 20kt.

MARINE

Winds and seas have fallen below Small Craft Advisory so the SCA over the Intra-Coastal and Coastal Waters has been allowed to expire. Rest of today generally N-NW winds 10-15kt with gusts up to 20kt and seas 2-4 feet except gusts up to 30kt over the 25-60nm Waters and seas up to 6ft. Tonight, winds generally relax to less than 15kt on all the waters and seas subside to 2-4ft through Sat night. Sunday expected seas 1-3ft and NW winds will increase with gusts up to 20kt on the Intra-Coastal to Coastal Waters and up to 25kt on the Waters 25-60nm. Winds will relax on Monday with seas generally 1-2ft. High pressure Monday through late week will lead to conditions well below SCA criteria.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.