textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

-Added patchy fog to Washington County coast and nearby waters this evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Significant rain expected across the north this evening which may cause some ponding of low lying areas.

2) Above normal temperatures early to middle of next week, along with a few rounds of rainfall, will continue to result in ice break up on northern rivers.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Significant rain expected across the north this evening which may cause some ponding of low lying areas.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure tracking along a frontal boundary will bring rain across the region this evening with most of the rain over the north. The rainfall will be supported by dynamic lift ahead of an approaching trough and frontal convergence along the low. Around a half inch of rain is expected over parts of Northern Aroostook, Northern Somerset, and Northern Piscataquis Counties where there is still substantial snow and ice melt occurring. The combination of rainfall and melting snow/sleet may lead to some ponding in low lying areas of the north. However, significant flooding is not anticipated at this time. The rain should end across the north around midnight and taper off Downeast early Saturday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Above normal temperatures early to middle of next week, along with a few rounds of rainfall, will continue to result in ice break up on northern rivers.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Temperatures are expected to moderate during the course of next week. Temperatures on Sunday are expected to be a few degrees above the normal, then rise to 10 to 15 degrees above normal by the middle to later part of next week.

Along with the milder temperatures, there will be the potential for a few rounds of rainfall during the early to later portions of the week. The first chance of rain comes Sunday night into Monday associated with a warm frontal passage later Sunday night into early Monday, followed by an approaching cold front later Monday into Monday night.

After a mainly dry Tuesday, another chance rain is expected Tuesday night into early Wednesday. This will be followed by another round of rain Wednesday night into early Thursday.

Although none of the rainfall looks to be especially heavy at this point in time, the combination of the above normal temperatures and expected rainfall will lead to continued ice breakup of any remaining ice on the northern rivers.

AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Tonight...Conditions dropping to IFR this evening then improving to MVFR late tonight. Winds across the north light and variable becoming NW 5 to 10 kt late, and winds across the south S around 5 kt becoming NW around 5 kt late. SW LLWS around 40 kt at 2K ft during the evening.

Saturday...MVFR becoming VFR across the south by late morning and VFR across the north during the afternoon. Winds NW 10 to 15 kt and gusty.

Saturday night...VFR except possibly occasionally MVFR over the far north. Winds NW 5 to 10 kt.

Sunday...VFR. NW wind around 10 kt

Sunday night and Monday...MVFR or lower possible. S to SE wind developing.

Monday night...VFR. Light wind.

Tuesday...VFR, possible MVFR late in the day. S to SE wind.

MARINE

A SCA will be needed over the offshore waters tonight through Saturday for SW winds gusting up to 25 kt tonight and W winds gusting up to 25 kt on Saturday. Winds will gradually drop below SCA Saturday night. Seas building up to 5 to 6 ft tonight, dropping back to 4 ft Saturday and 3 ft Saturday night. Moist air moving over the colder waters may produce some patchy fog this evening, especially along the Washington County Coast. SCA conditions are possible Sunday night into Monday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ050-051.