textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Increasing confidence in rain and gusty winds Wednesday night and Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain chances remain limited through midweek, accompanied by near to below normal temperatures. The next best chance for precipitation arrives Wednesday night into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain chances remain limited through midweek, accompanied by near to below normal temperatures. The next best chance for precipitation arrives Wednesday night into Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Shortwave energy should cross the region on Tuesday bringing cloud cover, and a slight chance of isolated showers, that will reduce high temps and increase low temps. Dry conditions with below normal low temps will continue into Wednesday night.

Global models are continuing to come into better agreement about a low pressure system passing to the north of Maine Wednesday night into Thursday, though there is still some uncertainty in the strength of the low. Global ensembles show precipitation moving in from the west Wednesday night and exiting by late Thursday night. These ensembles show a widespread rainfall of about 0.5 inches with some pockets of higher totals, though these rainfall estimates could change as we get closer to the event. Ensemble models also show increasing consistency in gusty southerly winds from the LLJ Wednesday night. This system will continue to be monitored for changes.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Rest of Today...VFR. Isolated/scattered showers possible at southern terminals. North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots.

Tonight...Variable conditions with any localized fog late. Otherwise, VFR. North/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Monday...VFR. North/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Monday night-Tuesday...VFR with possible MVFR cigs at northern terminals late Monday night, becoming VFR Tuesday. WNW winds 5-10 kts with gusts to around 20 kts.

Wednesday...VFR in the morning, MVFR/IFR in the afternoon as rain moves in. S winds 5-15 kts.

Wed night-Thursday...MVFR/IFR for cigs/vsby due to rain. S winds 10-15 kts Wed night, then shifting to W winds 10-15 kts, with gusts up to 30 kts.

MARINE

Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels this afternoon through Wednesday. Winds are expected to be breezy from WNW for this period. Seas should remain 1-3 ft for all waters. By Wed night, winds should increase to SCA levels in the coastal, and possibly intercoastal, waters with possible gales in the outer waters. Seas expected to reach 6-10 ft in the coastal waters and 9-11 ft in the outer waters. By Thursday, winds and seas should decrease in the afternoon below SCA.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.