textproduct: Caribou

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will build south of the area today. Low pressure will approach tonight, track north of the area Sunday, and continue into the Northern Canadian Maritimes Sunday night. High pressure will rebuild south of the region Monday into Monday night. Low pressure will cross the area Tuesday followed by high pressure returning on Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

* Key Messages: 1) Remaining windy this morning, windiest in the north. Still windy Downeast, but the strongest winds Downeast are over.

2) Patchy icy spots on roads this morning, mainly in the north and in more protected areas.

3) Light snow for all but Downeast Saturday night.

What Has Changed: * 1030am Update: Winds have been decreasing and thus have cancelled the wind advisory for all areas. * 730am Update: Increased PoPs over eastern Maine next couple hours due to persisting snow showers gradually moving off to the east. * 3am Update: Increased PoPs next couple hours in the north due to observed snow shower activity. Also, blended in some HRRR into hourly temperatures as it is better handling the fairly steady temps ahead of the secondary cold front and the faster drop behind the secondary cold front which is presently moving from west to east through the area. Also, raised wind gusts a touch in the north presently and next two hours based on some observed gusts to around 50 mph at Caribou and Frenchville. * Little change in thinking for the winds today, flash freeze potential early today, and for the light snow Saturday night.

Key Message 1... Winds are picking back up now in the pre-dawn hours after a brief lull behind the initial cold front which moved through around 6-8pm. Wind direction is now out of the west (as opposed to the south winds earlier), and these winds are coupled with strong cold advection and a secondary drop in temperatures after temperatures being nearly steady for a few hours. Gusts here at the office in Caribou have picked back up to as high as 45 mph. Expect generally gusts 35-45 mph over Northern Maine through this morning before easing significantly this afternoon. Downeast, winds won't be quite as bad this morning, with generally 25-35 mph gusts. That said, any wind is not good as the many are still without power from yesterday's windstorm, and lighter winds will help recovery. The good news is that winds Downeast also ease significantly this afternoon. There are a few flurries/light snow showers early this morning in the north, but nothing of consequence.

Key Message 2... Think that Downeast is having a long enough delay between the end of the rain and sub-freezing temperatures that a flash freeze of roads won't happen in all but the most isolated spots. Northern Maine is a tougher call. Temperatures as of 1am are just a hair above freezing, but dewpoints have fallen below freezing, so expect any wet surfaces to start freezing any time now. Temperatures will continue to fall easily below freezing this morning. However, it is quite windy in the north and this will help roads continue to dry out. Bottom line, expect patchy ice this morning especially in areas more protected from the wind, but expect roads to gradually dry out as well as the winds persist. Issued an SPS for areas north of Bangor to cover this threat.

Key Message 3... High pressure late today is very short-lived, as the next system (a weak occluded front) moves in tonight. Look for temperatures to warm through the night, with snow developing mid to late evening, mainly in the north, and tapering off by dawn Sunday. This quick hitting weak system should bring an inch or two of snow in the north, less than inch over central portions of the area from Greenville to Millinocket to Topsfield, and little if any on the coast as it looks warm enough for just some light rain. Most of the precipitation moves east during the day Sunday, but the north could see some snow showers (40 percent chance) as more unstable and slightly cooler air moves in from the west, with steeper low-level lapse rates.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

High pressure to our southwest contrasting with low pressure over the Northern Maritimes will sustain a strong pressure gradient across the area Sunday night resulting in gusty northwesterly winds. Some moisture backing into the area will bring a mostly cloudy sky north with downsloping allowing for a mostly clear sky Downeast. This will continue through Monday with northwesterly winds. A thin ridge of high pressure will build in Monday night bringing diminishing winds and a mostly clear and very cold night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Our focus on Tuesday turns to a weak and fast moving shortwave approaching from the Great Lakes region. This shortwave will develop low pressure over the area which will cross the region late Tuesday into Tuesday night bringing a good chance for some light snow. Models are disagreeing on the track of the low with the GFS carrying the low to our south and the ECMWF taking the low to our north. However, given that the system is very fast moving and cold air will already be in place, even a north tracking system will not have time to draw much warm air north so any precipitation we get should be all snow except perhaps right along the coast where some rain may mix in.

The low will move away Wednesday into Wednesday night as high pressure builds to our south. This will bring a return of dry weather with a partly cloudy sky Wednesday followed by a mostly cloudy sky Wednesday night with another shortwave moving in. This next shorwave will be another fast moving system which could bring a bit of light snow or snow showers late Thursday into Thursday night.

AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

NEAR TERM: Today...Main hazard early this morning is the wind, which is quite gusty especially in the north, and from the W. Mainly VFR today, with possible localized MVFR cigs until 14z today in the north. Winds remain gusty through late morning, but then decrease substantially midday into the afternoon.

Tonight...LLWS from SW winds developing all sites. Thickening clouds with MVFR likely developing north of BGR from cigs and light snow. MVFR possible BHB/BGR, but VFR more likely. Surface winds increasing to S/SW 10 kts.

Sunday...Intermittent MVFR/VFR from HUL north, and VFR south including BHB/BGR. W/SW wind 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts.

SHORT TERM: Sunday night...VFR. Gusty NW winds.

Monday...VFR...Gusty NW winds gradually diminishing.

Monday night...VFR. Light W to SW winds.

Tuesday...VFR, dropping to MVFR, and possibly IFR over the south. Light NE winds.

Tuesday night...IFR becoming MVFR south. MVFR north. Light N winds.

Wednesday...MVFR becoming VFR. Light N to NW winds.

MARINE

NEAR TERM: Gale force winds W winds this morning ease significantly late this afternoon to below small craft. The reprieve is short- lived, as gales are likely to develop again around midnight tonight and persist into Sunday morning. Issued a gale watch for this period.

SHORT TERM: A gale will likely be needed Sunday night through Monday morning for NW winds gusting over 35 kt across the offshore waters. Winds will drop to SCA Monday afternoon then below SCA Monday night returning to SCA late Tuesday then gale Tuesday night. Winds may drop back to SCA on Wednesday. Seas up to 7 ft Sunday night dropping to 5 ft Monday, 2 ft Tuesday and back up to 6 ft Tuesday night into Wednesday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050-051. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ052.