textproduct: Caribou

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will build south of the area today into Tuesday. An occluded front will approach on Wednesday and lift north of the area Wednesday night. Low pressure will track into Quebec on Thursday and continue to our north on Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

The weak disturbance that moved over the area last night will slide off to the east today as high pressure builds to our south. This will bring clearing over southern areas and partial clearing across the north.

A weak occlusion sliding across the north tonight will bring increasing clouds. Downeast will remain partly cloudy. The gradient north of high pressure to our south will keep a very light southwesterly breeze overnight.

A new occluded front extending well east from Low pressure lifting into the Plains will begin to approach on Tuesday. This will bring increasing clouds. Otherwise, Tuesday will be a little milder in the return southwesterly flow from high pressure well south of the area. Highs will reach the low to mid 40s across the region.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Key Messages -Rain Wednesday morning with slight chance for freezing rain during transition from snow to rain, mainly in central areas.

Upr low will be digging into the upr Midwest Tuesday evening. Precip shield will begin entering into the CWA after midnight Tuesday night as moisture streams north on southerly flow. Parent sfc low back over Lk Superior with triple point developing along the Maine coast Wednesday morning as H3 jet rounds base of the trough. Temps along the coast and up into interior Downeast, including the Bangor Region, will remain above freezing Tuesday night with rain expected after midnight.

Depending on how quickly airmass can saturate will determine ptype Wednesday morning. Warm air aloft surges in quickly, changing what begins as snow quickly over to rain. Still some question as to how surface temperatures increase above freezing to prevent much in the way of freezing rain early. For the time being have added in slight chance of freezing rain across the north, but this will likely just be a quick transition between snow and rain with no ice accretion expected at this point.

Triple moves east into NB overnight. At the same time upper low moves into Quebec with possible dry slot shutting off rain over southern areas by midnight, and progressing north thru the nighttime hours.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Key Messages -Gusty convective snow showers expected Friday, leading to hazardous Thanksgiving travel. -Wind chills dropping toward zero Friday night.

Chance to slight chance showers expected on Thursday with rain in the morning, slowly transitioning to snow showers throughout the day as caa works in from Canada.

Upper low crosses into eastern Quebec and toward the Maritimes on Friday. This keeps snow showers over the region, mainly over the north. As sfc low deepens over the Maritimes and sfc high builds into the OH Valley, pressure gradient tightens Friday and Saturday. At this time all signs are pointing to gusty convective snow showers with fairly steep lapse rates. Will eventually have to address in the HWO due to Thanksgiving travel on Friday.

Low temperatures on Friday night will drop into the mid-upper teens over the north and with winds remaining high cannot rule out wind chill temps dropping to near 0F by morning. Highs on Saturday will remain in the 20s over the north, leading to a brisk and cold day.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions are likely over the far north early this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected across the area today and tonight except for the far north where conditions may drop to MVFR again for a while late tonight. Winds northwest 5 to 10 kt today then SW around 3 kt tonight. VFR conditions should prevail on Tuesday. Winds SW 5 to 10 kt.

SHORT TERM:

Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR south with rain after midnight. Northern terminals drop to MVFR/IFR late. Light S, becoming E late.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...IFR/LIFR all terminals in rain. E 5kts becoming SSW 5-10kts late Wednesday night.

Thursday...Improving to VFR south in the morning, and north in the afternoon. SSW 5-15kts gusting to 20-25kts.

Thursday night-Friday...Mainly VFR, though MVFR/IFR at northern terminals in -shsn. SW 5-15kts gusting 20-30kts Friday afternoon.

MARINE

NEAR TERM: A few southwesterly wind gusts may reach 25 kt across the offshore waters on Tuesday. Otherwise, wind and seas should remain below SCA today through Tuesday. Seas up to 3 ft today and 4 ft Tuesday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas below small craft levels through Wednesday. Conditions increase above SCA late Wednesday night with gusts aoa 25kts and seas above 5 feet. Winds approach gale force Thursday night and remain elevated above 34kts through Friday. Meanwhile seas increase above 10 feet for the outer waters on Friday with intracoastal ranging from 4 to 6 feet.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.