textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Multiple reports received that ice has cleared on the Aroostook River. There is a minor jam in place on the Allagash River by the bridge with substantial sheet ice remaining upstream. That is now the only known river ice remaining at this time on northern Maine rivers. Updated the key message 1 discussion to reflect the latest information on river ice. - Update to lower forecast temperatures late this afternoon and evening. The morning run of the NBM is 5 to 15 degrees too warm compared to current observations. - (730 PM Update) Cancelled Small Craft Advisory over the intracoastal waters. Updated marine discussion. Minor update to aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures through the end of the week combined with some rainfall will result in river ice continuing to break up, melt, and clear out on the northern rivers.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures through the end of the week combined with some rainfall will result in river ice continuing to break up, melt, and clear out on the northern rivers.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Per the previous discussion: High temperatures across the north are expected to be in the low 50s through mid-week and in the upper 50s to near 60 late this week. This will result in river ice across the north continuing to melt and break up. So far there has been no ice jam flooding reported and the ice-out has been gentle. However, some minor ice jamming is reported on the Allagash River.

Additional rainfall across the north of around a quarter inch Tuesday night will add to the snow and ice melt, contributing to additional rises on the rivers. Significant flooding is currently not anticipated at this time. However, given that the ice is still moving and breaking up on the Allagash River, we will have to continue to monitor the potential for some ice jams and continued fluctuation of water levels over the Saint John basin.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Tonight...MVFR/IFR with -RA, improving to VFR at BGR and BHB and MVFR at northern terminals. -RA and LLWS ends from NW to SE by 6z. S winds 5 to 10 kt this evening, shifting NW.

Tuesday...MVFR at northern terminals through mid day, otherwise VFR. NW wind 5 to 10 kt in the morning, becoming light and variable.

Tuesday night...IFR or lower with -RA. Light and variable winds.

Wednesday...MVFR dropping to IFR south. IFR north, improving to MVFR late. SE to E wind around 5 kt.

Wednesday night...MVFR to VFR north. IFR TO MVFR south. N wind around 5 kt.

Thursday...MVFR becoming IFR south. VFR becoming MVFR then IFR north. SE wind 5 to 10 kt.

Thursday night...IFR, becoming MVFR late. Light and variable wind.

Friday-Saturday...VFR. NW wind around 5 kt.

MARINE

Winds and seas below advisory criteria continue across the intracoastal waters. A Small Craft Advisory continues for the outer waters with gusts to 25 kt tapering off shortly, but seas remaining above 5 ft through early Tuesday morning. Winds/seas are expected to remain below SCA levels Tuesday night.

Wind and seas will remain below SCA from mid week this week through the coming weekend. Moist air over the colder waters may result in some fog and mist over the waters and along the coast at times, especially Wednesday and again on Friday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050-051.