textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

What Changed with the 520pm Update: -Raised winds/gusts significantly later tonight into early Saturday, and issued a wind advisory for roughly the northern half of the area.

What Changed Earlier this Afternoon: -Removed mention of freezing rain this evening across the north.

-Increasing confidence that abruptly falling temperatures behind a strong cold front early Thursday morning will result in the risk of slippery conditions Thursday morning, especially over the north.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A period of rain this evening, although a brief wintry mix of snow and sleet is possible across far northern areas.

2) Gusty winds expected tonight into Saturday morning. A few power outages possible mainly in the north later tonight.

3) Significant snow moving in early Sunday morning and continuing into Sunday night with over half a foot possible across the north.

4) A strong cold front with rain and snow showers followed by falling temperatures may create slippery conditions Wednesday night.

5) Arctic air returning late in the week with subzero lows likely across the north Thursday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A period of rain this evening, although a brief wintry mix of snow and sleet is possible across far northern areas.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure tracks to the north of the region tonight. This will result in a period of mainly light rain, with a brief wintry mix possible across far northern areas through early this evening. Precipitation amounts (liquid equivalent) through tonight generally expected to range from one tenth to about one- quarter of an inch. Any snow and sleet across the far north early this evening is expected to be less than an inch.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Gusty winds expected tonight into Saturday morning. A few power outages possible mainly in the north late tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Southerly wind gusts 25 to 30 mph this evening in advance of an approaching cold front. The cold front crosses the region after midnight. Winds will shift into the west behind the front. The tightening pressure gradient will result in winds gusting as high as 40 to 50 mph at times through Saturday morning, with winds gradually diminishing by afternoon. With the 520pm update, increased the winds later tonight and early Saturday and issued a wind advisory for much of the north for the strong westerly post-frontal winds. Winds ease significantly by midday Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Significant snow moving in early Sunday morning and continuing into Sunday night with over half a foot possible across the north.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... A trough of low pressure tracking into the Great lakes Saturday night will support one area of low pressure over the Eastern Great Lakes with secondary low pressure forming near Southern New England. High pressure to the northeast will hold cold air in place as overunning ahead of this system spreads snow across the area Saturday night. The snow may mix with some rain along the coast. Snow will continue through the day on Sunday with a mix Downeast. The only limiting factor on snow amounts may be a dry intrusion surging into the area Sunday. The secondary low off the coast, forming on a triple point, looks like it wants to adhere closely to a jet max running from off the Mid Atlantic coast northeast off Nova Scotia. A dry intrusion between the primary Lakes low and the new low offshore may lift into the area during the day Sunday limiting snow intensity. Nevertheless, enough overrunning and QPF should at least bring advisory criteria snow across the northern half of our area. Occasional lighter snow will likely continue through the night Sunday night as the low consolidates over the Maritimes and the upper trough moves over the area.

KEY MESSAGE 4... A strong cold front with rain and snow showers followed by falling temperatures may create slippery conditions Wednesday night.

KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure tracking through Quebec will pull a strong cold front into the area Wednesday night. Some rain and snow showers along this front followed by a turn to snow showers and abruptly falling temperatures may result in icy and slippery conditions in time for the Thursday morning commute.

KEY MESSAGE 5... Arctic air returning late in the week with subzero lows likely across the north Thursday night.

KEY MESSAGE 5 DESCRIPTION... Cold high pressure building in from the west on Thursday will push Arctic air south into the area on brisk north winds following the cold front. Wind chills on Thursday will range from the single digits north to around 20 Downeast. Lows Thursday night will range from just below zero over the north to the mid teens near the coast.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Widespread MVFR/IFR conditions are expected tonight. Conditions rapidly improve to VFR after 12Z Sat. VFR through Sat evening, then conditions lowering to MVFR or less aft 06z Sunday in developing snow.

Low level wind shear will impact all the terminals tonight into Saturday morning. S wind gusts as high as 30 kt this evening. Wind becoming W after midnight behind the cold front with gusts up to 35 kt expected into Saturday morning.

Sunday...IFR. Light E wind.

Sunday night...IFR north. IFR improving to MVFR south. NW wind increasing and becoming gusty late.

Monday...MVFR improving to VFR north. VFR south. Gusty W wind.

Monday night...VFR dropping to MVFR north early and MVFR south late. Light SW wind.

Tuesday...MVFR becoming VFR. SW wind becoming S.

Tuesday night...VFR dropping to MVFR Then IFR. Gusty S wind.

Wednesday...IFR. Moderate S wind.

MARINE

Gale force wind gusts are expected tonight through Saturday morning. Winds/seas diminish to SCA levels Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.

East winds will be SCA Sunday morning, diminishing in the afternoon. West winds will increase to SCA then gale Sunday night and drop back to SCA on Monday. SW winds will remain at SCA levels over the offshore waters through Wed. Seas building up to 5 ft on Sunday then 9 ft Sunday night into early Monday. Seas dropping back to 5 ft Monday night and remaining near 5 ft through Wednesday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for MEZ001>006- 010-031. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ050>052.