textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Increasing confidence in rain development close to the coast with Monday system, increasing rain totals.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers, and potentially a few thunderstorms, likely late this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers, and potentially a few thunderstorms, likely late this weekend into early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A cold front approaches our area tonight as an area of low pressure moves north along it Sunday night. The low should pass north of our area Sunday night into Monday while strengthening. Models have come into better agreement on timing, with Monday looking like the period for the heaviest rainfall but there are still some differences in the guidance that prevent higher confidence in this event. Ensembles show about a 60-80% chance of at least 0.5 inches of rainfall for most areas, with about a 30-50% chance of at least 0.5 inches in the Central Highlands and Southern and Central Aroostook. Models and ensembles still differ on where stronger rain bands set up, either over the North Woods and/or Downeast, with a few showing them set up over central areas, which could shift totals. An uncertainty with the models is if low pressure can develop over the Gulf of Maine. Models have been increasingly showing development of this low with offshore rain bands, increasing totals for the Downeast. Some thunderstorms remain possible Sunday over the North with the advancing cold front and during the day on Monday areawide. Currently thinking the greatest chance for storms will be Sunday, especially if clouds are not too widespread. Monday will likely feature isolated elevated convection, mostly away from the coast. Another key factor to watch with this event is fog. Areas of fog, possibly dense, expected tonight and Sunday night as light southerly winds bring a moist, stable marine layer inland. Expect the densest fog south of the Katahdin region. Patchy fog may persist into each morning. Another round of fog is possible with the rain moving out Monday night.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Tonight...Mainly VFR cigs for northern terms tonight, though KFVE/Saint John Valley terminals could see lowering to MVFR should stratus deck stick around. Low stratus cigs and fog could roll into Downeast terminals, with KBGR most likely MVFR/IFR low cigs and KBHB likely IFR/LIFR vis and cigs. Winds light and variable.

Sunday...Improvement to VFR early over all terminals, followed by a gradual decrease towards MVFR/IFR as rain moves in from the west. S winds 10 to 15 kts, with stronger winds closer to the coast.

Sunday night...MVFR/IFR in rain showers and fog. Winds S to SE at 5 to 10 kts.

Monday...MVFR/IFR in rain showers and isolated T-storms. S winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts.

Monday night - Tuesday...Becoming VFR Monday night. W winds 5-10 kts, increasing to 10 to 15 kts during the day with gusts to 20 kts.

Tuesday night - Wednesday...VFR except for brief MVFR in some isolated showers possible. Light W winds, shifting to S winds 5-10 kts Wednesday.

Wednesday night...VFR. Light S winds.

Thursday...MVFR/IFR in rain showers and isolated T-storms. SSW winds 5-10 kts.

MARINE

Winds below 25 kts and seas below 5 ft tonight through Sunday night. Fog could limit visibility at times tonight through Sunday night.

Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions through Monday. Becoming S winds today through Monday, then W/SW through Wednesday. Seas 3-4 ft through Tuesday, increasing to 5 ft on the coastal and intracoastal waters Monday night. Seas below SCA criteria by Wednesday. Rain possible late Sunday into Monday night. Fog likely tonight, Sunday night, and Monday night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029- 030. MARINE...None.