textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 700 PM Update to the Aviation section below with the issuance of the 00z TAFs. Light snow showers continue tonight.

- Confidence increasing in dry conditions Monday-Thursday next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated to scattered snow/rain showers will occur throughout the weekend.

2) Persistent dry conditions next week will lead to a worsening of the ongoing water resource drought impacting Eastern and Northern Maine.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Isolated to scattered snow/rain showers will occur throughout the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A closed upper low will move south across the region today, exiting tonight. An upper level disturbance then moves south across the region Sunday. Both the closed low and upper disturbance will support isolated to scattered snow/rain showers today and Sunday. Any snow accumulations today through Sunday will be minimal, generally only a few tenths of an inch. However, local accumulations up to around an inch could occur across higher terrain areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Persistent dry conditions next week will lead to a worsening of the ongoing water resource drought impacting Eastern and Northern Maine.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A large high pressure system centered over the Mid-Atlantic coast will remain fairly stationary throughout next week. Upper air models indicate a very slow moving ridge that keeps high pressure in place. Warm, dry air from the desert SW is expected to be piped into the region, which should bring temps into the low 50s Wednesday through Friday. Possible breezy conditions during the day will further lead to dry conditions. This continued dry weather will allow for soil moisture to dry/remain at much below normal levels next week.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Tonight...A deck of low MVFR clouds with -SHSN currently sits over FVE and NW Maine, but just far enough W of US-1 for CAR/PQI/HUL to remain VFR at this time. With prevailing N to VRB winds this evening, these conditions should continue for the next several hours. However, a slight shift in winds to the NW around 5 kts at around 10z will bring these lower cigs eastward enough for CAR/PQI, and a couple hours later to HUL. BGR and Downeast terminals should remain low-end VFR through the night, with occasional -SHRA.

Sunday...Across northern terminals, generally MVFR, though brief IFR possible in any -SHSN, and SCT MVFR possible surrounding these showers. Across Downeast areas, VFR. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Sunday Night...MVFR becoming VFR overnight across all terminals. Winds 5-10 knots from the northwest.

Monday-Thursday: VFR, except for a very low chance of MVFR at northern terminals on Wednesday. WNW winds 5-10 kts, W winds 5-10 kts Tuesday through Thursday.

MARINE

Winds/seas generally below small craft advisory levels tonight through Sunday. However, a few wind gusts could approach small craft advisory levels Sunday.

Small Craft Conditions are possible on the coastal ocean waters Sunday evening, however confidence is not quite high enough to issue an SCA at this time. From Monday-Thursday, the coastal waters should see sustained winds of 15 kt or less and seas 3 ft or less.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.