textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation discussion for 00z TAFS

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures are expected through this weekend with shower chances returning later Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures are expected through this weekend with shower chances returning later Wednesday afternoon into Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A broad upper level ridge is expected to remain in place across the Hudson Bay into eastern Canada and the northeast US this week, leading to persistent above normal temperatures with daytime highs generally in the upper 70s to 80s forecast through this weekend. Dew points will generally remain comfortable in the 50s, lessening heat related impacts. Heat risk is generally in the minor category, suggesting any heat related issues will be mostly confined to vulnerable populations. The warmest day closer to the Downeast coast will be Tuesday before winds become lighter and out of the south with the daily sea breeze.

A weak disturbance cutting underneath the ridge near the US- Canada border will provide moisture for cloud cover and showers late Wednesday into early Thursday. The greatest chances will be across western areas, where a rumble of thunder is possible. The combination of poor mid level lapse rates and minimal instability with MLCAPEs less than 500 j/kg will preclude much of a thunder risk farther east.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

High confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Light and variable winds tonight, become W-WNW at 6-10KT by mid Tuesday morning. Northern terminals should see W-WNW winds G15-20KT and KBHB a sea breeze starting around midday. There is a low chance that KBGR also sees a sea breeze Tuesday afternoon, but confidence in this occurring is not high enough to reflect in the TAFs.

Tuesday night-Wednesday: VFR. Sea breeze at southern terminals Wednesday afternoon.

Wednesday night: VFR at northern terminals, with MVFR or lower possible in showers, mainly at southern terminals.

Thursday-Thursday night: VFR, with MVFR or lower possible at southern terminals early.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with a slight chance of a shower.

Friday night-Saturday: MVFR or lower possible. S-SW winds G15-20KT possible.

MARINE

Winds and seas will remain below advisory criteria on the coastal ocean waters through Saturday. The outer waters should see winds of 20 kt or less and seas of 5 ft or less during this time frame.

Water temperatures have moderated slightly over the past couple weeks to between 46 and 50 degrees.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.