textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated discussion for the 00z TAF and the fog discussion for tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Another round of fog tonight ahead of the system moving along the coast bringing moderate to heavy rainfall Downeast into Tuesday afternoon.

2) Continued unsettled Wednesday and Thursday, with the next system approaching Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Another round of fog tonight ahead of the system moving along the coast bringing moderate to heavy rainfall Downeast into Tuesday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A closed upper low tracks from near the Ontario-Quebec border this evening, to north of the Saint Lawrence River in SW Quebec by Tuesday evening. At the surface, this will cause a broad low to develop from the Mid Atlantic Coast to the SW Gulf of Maine by Tuesday morning. The northern portion of this low then tracks east-northeast into Downeast Maine Tuesday afternoon and into southern New Brunswick by Tuesday evening. This brings highest rainfall amounts confined to around the center of this low with 1-1.5 inches from the coast up through interior Downeast. 0.50 inches as far north as the I95 corridor with lesser amounts further to the north. Any wobbles offshore of the low may result in these amounts being significantly less.

At this time there does not appear to be a significant flash flood threat with FFG in this region being over 2 inches in one hour, however there remains the risk across Downeast Maine and the Bangor Region for the minor flooding of known poor drainage areas and other flood prone locations with the heaviest rainfall from late tonight into early Tuesday afternoon.

In addition, light southerly flow ahead of the system will keep lows and dew points above normal. This should allow for another round of fog tonight, at least until the rain arrives, and helps to mix out the low levels. At this point in time, don't have the confidence to predict more than locally dense fog, and don't have sufficient confidence in timing or location to issue a special weather statement at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Continued unsettled Wednesday and Thursday, with the next system approaching Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... As an upper level low near the Great Lakes Wednesday makes its way into the region by Friday, there will be showers, and the possibility of thunderstorms, Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Shortwave energy ahead of the low will create the unsettled weather for midweek. Modest CAPE and mid level lapse rates could support some pop-up thunderstorms, mainly in the north, though a lack of shear should limit thunderstorm strength. The upper level low enters the region Friday morning bringing more widespread rain showers, though track and timing are uncertain. Extended models are in better agreement with the track of the low, however the intensity is still uncertain. Current precip estimates are around 0.5 inches, with up to 1 in in some places in heavier showers.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Conditions become IFR or lower from S to N tonight, starting at coastal terminals by late this evening, then at central terminals around midnight, then at northern terminals late tonight/early Tuesday morning. Conditions should then remain IFR or lower well into Tuesday afternoon. Conditions should likely improve to MVFR as the rain tapers off late in the TAF period.

Winds becoming light and variable throughout this evening and should remain so through the TAF period except for possibly at KFVE and KBHB where a period of SE-ESE winds of 6-10kt are possible from Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. LLWS is likely at KBHB from early Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon.

Tuesday night...MVFR or lower likely.

Wednesday-Thursday: VFR, except for MVFR or lower possible in any showers and possible thunderstorms, mainly at northern terminals. NW winds G15-20KT possible Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Thursday night-Saturday: MVFR or lower possible.

MARINE

Winds remain below 25kt through late tonight, and below SCA levels on the coastal ocean waters, then increase from the south through Tuesday afternoon. May see marginal SCA for waters out to 25NM Tuesday morning. Winds remain below small craft levels all waters through Tuesday night. Seas climb above 5ft out through 60NM Tuesday morning before dropping Tuesday evening. Fog will reduce visibilities over the waters tonight and again Tuesday night.

Marginal SCA winds and seas on the coastal waters early Tuesday, then below SCA criteria on all waters through Friday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.