textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread soaking rain expected Thursday. Some drought relief is possible, though flooding is not expected. Showery conditions continue into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread soaking rain expected Thursday. Some drought relief is possible, though flooding is not expected. Showery conditions continue into Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... An area of rain will begin to expand eastward across the forecast area tonight in advance of an occluded front. A disturbance moving around an upper low across Quebec province will help support a developing low along the front Thursday. Rain will occur regionwide Thursday, developing from west to east after midnight tonight and reaching the New Brunswick border around or shortly after dawn. It will be a steady light to possibly moderate rain much of the day Thursday, with only a few breaks in the rain here and there. The developing low pressure will move east along the Downeast coast Thursday evening. Rain chances will begin to diminish late Thursday afternoon in western portions of the area, and Thursday night further east toward the New Brunswick border. Fog is expected for some areas later tonight and again on Thursday night. With the rain during the day Thursday, hilltops will likely be socked in with fog as well. Not anticipating dense fog at this time, but will monitor.

The surface low exits across the Maritimes Friday, with a trof extending back across the forecast area, while the upper low begins to move south across the region. Showers will persist across the region Friday, with the better chances across northern areas. Could also have the slight chance of a thunderstorm Friday afternoon particularly in central and Northwest areas. The surface/upper lows vertically stack across the Maritimes Friday night into Saturday, slowing the movement of the system. A disturbance moving around the Maritimes system will rotate across the region Saturday. Shower chances will persist Friday night into Saturday. The system then exits Saturday night into Sunday. The entire forecast area should receive a soaking rain later Wednesday night into Thursday night. Generally expect rainfall totals of a half to three quarters of an inch across much of the forecast area Wednesday night into Saturday, with areas of up to around an inch.

AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Rest of Today...VFR for all terminals. SE winds 5-10 kts.

Tonight...VFR early, then becoming IFR/LIFR for south terminals and MVFR/IFR for north terminals late. Rain will move in from west to east late night. Patchy fog possible, mainly at southern terminals. SE winds 5-10 kts.

Thursday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Rain and patchy fog. Southeast winds around 10 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots. LLWS possible during the day with SE winds aloft. Didn't put in TAFs yet as looks borderline, but will need to evaluate.

Thursday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Rain tapering off. Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming variable.

Friday...MVFR/IFR in the morning, then becoming VFR/MVFR. Showers north, a chance of showers Downeast. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north/northeast.

Friday night through Saturday...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR, with a chance of showers. North/northeast winds 05 to 10 knots Friday night, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Saturday.

Saturday night through Sunday...VFR. North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Sunday Night through Monday...VFR. Light and variable winds.

MARINE

SE winds/seas have about a 40 percent chance of reaching 25 kts/5 ft during the day Thursday immediate ahead of a low pressure center tracking along the coast. Winds/seas then slacken late Thursday/Thursday night. Fog likely at times over the waters tonight to Thursday night, along with rain. Can't rule out an embedded thunderstorm during the day Thursday.

A slight chance/chance of showers Friday into Saturday. Friday through Monday seas will remain below SCA. Beginning Saturday, wind gusts will reach criteria and persist through Sunday morning in the intracoastal and coastal waters. On the outer waters, wind gusts will approach gale criteria.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.