textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Issued Gale Warning for outer waters (ANZ050-051) for tonight.

- Confidence has increased in a more northerly shift to the storm on Friday and Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong system Friday through Saturday is expected to bring widespread rain with some snow over the North Friday/Friday night and strong winds Friday night into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong system Friday through Saturday is expected to bring widespread rain with some snow over the North Friday/Friday night and strong winds Friday night into Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A strong low pressure system is expected to develop over the Great Lakes, then move east towards the state this weekend. This system is expected to bring widespread precip to the region Friday. As of this update, ensemble solutions are gradually converging on a track through the center of the state but there are still groupings of members wanting to take the track north and south of the area. The track through the area is relatively favorable for some snowfall in northern areas as winds will have an easterly component, preventing substantial warm air from advecting into the area. Most areas that see snow will probably see less than an inch but a few areas near the canadian border might reach an inch or possibly two. Snow amounts are likely to be terrain dependent with higher elevations receiving the greater amounts. Some slick roads possible Friday night as temperatures drop to around freezing. Snow showers are likely to persist into Saturday with strong, gusty winds up to 40 mph. Along with temperatures in the 30s this is likely to result in wind chills dipping into the 20s. Isolated power outages are possible.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 00z...IFR for terminals, though SCT clouds will affect BHB by 18z. VRB winds at Aroostook terminals with NW 5-10kts BGR and BHB.

Tonight...MVFR north, VFR south. NW winds 5-15kts gusting 20-25kts after 06z.

Thursday...VFR. NW winds 10-15kts gusting 25-30kts.

Thursday night...VFR. WNW winds 5kts becoming calm overnight.

Friday - Saturday...MVFR/IFR possible in rain, and possibly snow mixing in over the north. MVFR over the north Saturday with snow showers. SE winds 10 to 15 kts Friday, increasing to 15 to 20 kts out of the NW Saturday with gusts up to 35 kts.

Saturday night - Sunday...VFR. WNW winds 10-20 kts.

Monday...VFR. S winds 5-10 kts.

MARINE

SCA continues through 14z Thursday for coastal ocean waters with nw winds gusting to 30kts and seas between 4-6 feet. Intracoastal likely to see small craft conditions between 07 and 14z Thursday. Outer waters will see gale force winds between 07-14z Thu before diminishing. Conditions to drop below small craft through Thursday night.

Below SCA winds and seas Thursday night through Friday morning on the coastal and intracoastal waters, then winds and seas increase to SCA criteria on all waters Friday afternoon, becoming gales on all waters Friday night, persisting through Saturday. Winds decrease to SCA criteria Sunday. Seas peak at 11 to 13 ft on the outer waters and 6 to 9 ft on the coastal waters early Saturday. Winds and seas should be below SCA levels on Monday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ052. Gale Warning from 3 AM to 10 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ080-081.