textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot and fairly muggy today and Friday. Not quite as hot over the weekend, but still very warm and muggy.

2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms late this week. Some strong storms are possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and fairly muggy today and Friday. Not quite as hot over the weekend, but still very warm and muggy.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Remaining hot today and Friday, with high temperatures near or just a hair warmer than what we had on Wednesday. Highs today and Friday will be around 90, with only a bit of relief along the immediate coast. Staying fairly warm at night too. Today will be fairly muggy still, but Friday we will see the humidity kick up a notch with dewpoints up around 70F. This will push heat indices to around heat advisory criteria of 95F or a bit hotter. Not ready to issue the advisory yet, but the next shift will need to consider, especially just inland from the immediate coast and north to Dover-Foxcroft and Lincoln. Light winds the next few days will make things feel worse.

Over the weekend, temperatures will be not quite as hot mainly due to increased clouds. That said, it will still easily be warmer than average, with nighttime temperatures staying especially mild. And it will still be muggy over the weekend. Some uncertainty in temperatures over the weekend as just how warm it gets will depend on the amount of clouds and showers/storms.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered showers and thunderstorms late this week. Some strong storms are possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure system approaches from the northwest, moving into New Brunswick. Associate front is continuing to trend slower, as it approaches Friday night, through Maine by Sunday. General trends is pointing towards the heavier rainfall falling on Saturday. There is a good amount of instability ahead of the cold front. NAM shows around 1,500 - 2,000 J/kg of CAPE, good low level lapse rates (roughly 8C/km), and plenty of precipitable water for Saturday afternoon into evening, though shear is low. Soundings are moist, with classic long and skinny CAPE throughout most of northern and eastern Maine. PWAT values around 1.8, with some models hinting at almost 2.0" on Saturday, which is around the 90th percentile, approaching the 1.9 daytime maximum value Friday evening, and the 1.7" record Saturday. Keeping the threat of thunder inland, as a seabreeze off of the cool Gulf of Maine waters should stabilize and keep daytime high temperatures on the lower side along Downeast Maine coastline on both days. Storm motions based on Corfidi vectors seems to be moving fast enough to keep flash flooding at bay, but will need to see how this evolves as the regional models and CAMs pick up on the system and preexisting environment. Bottom line up front: Saturday seems to be more favorable for heavier rainfall, and more expansive thunderstorms.

AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Today...VFR with SW winds less than 10 kts, except close to 10 kts in the afternoon at BHB.

Tonight...Mainly VFR, with about a 25 percent chance of fog after midnight, except a 50 percent chance at BHB. Light winds.

Friday...VFR with light winds. Small (20 percent) chance of an afternoon storm mainly at BGR.

Friday night-Saturday...MVFR/IFR in showers with possible thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. S winds 10-15KT possible Saturday afternoon.

Saturday night-Sunday...MVFR/IFR in showers early Saturday night and again Sunday afternoon. W winds 5-10KT.

Sunday night-Monday...VFR at night, and MVFR possible in showers Monday. W-NW winds G15-20KT possible Monday.

MARINE

Winds and seas below small craft levels for all waters through the weekend. Seas will generally range between 2 and 4ft throughout the period. Chance for rain and thunderstorms on Saturday. Intermittent fog Thursday night into the weekend.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.