textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Lowered the relative humidity forecast more this afternoon, with some areas now forecast to fall below 20 percent. - Aviation section updated for the 12z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm and very dry conditions are expected today. This, combined with a modest breeze, will lead to elevated fire weather conditions.

2) Significant rainfall is possible Thursday into Friday, which should be beneficial for the ongoing groundwater drought.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm and very dry conditions are expected today. This, combined with a modest breeze, will lead to elevated fire weather conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure over the area today will lead to clear skies and subsidence. Temperatures aloft are generally warmer to the NW, with 850mb temperatures around 3C for most of the area, except 4-5C across the far NW. This should yield high temperatures once again well into the 60s away from the coast. With the distribution of temperatures aloft, the best chance of getting into the 70s will be across the North Woods. The NBM continues to have a cool bias of several degrees as it has had over the last few days, so adjustments were necessary. Very dry air aloft will also lead to a band of very low dew points and relative humidity values, first developing Downeast, then moving northward through the day and reaching far northern areas this evening. Adjustments to the NBM were also necessary to lower dew points over much of the forecast area. Relative humidity values below 20 percent are forecast for portions of the area. This, combined with a light to modest southeast wind with gusts to 15 to 20 mph and recent dry weather will lead to elevated fire weather conditions today into this evening. Cloud cover increases tonight with much cooler temperatures expected on Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Significant rainfall is possible Thursday into Friday, which should be beneficial for the ongoing groundwater drought.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... H5 trof will be dropping down into the Great Lakes and likely closing off on Thursday. Southerly flow will be bringing moisture in ahead of lopres system. This will result in low stratus and possibly fog Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Rain looks to move from south to north Wednesday night as LLJ kicks in. By Thursday afternoon it appears that all areas will see rain with the exception of ern zones along the NB border. There looks as though there will be a tight gradient in rainfall Thu afternoon in all guidance, DESI and ensembles with the exception of 00z GFS. Overall it appears that rainfall amounts from Wednesday night-Friday morning in excess of an inch appear to be likely south and west of a North Woods to Washington County line.

Rain does not appear to be enough for anything other than very minor nuisance flooding, and if any of this occurs, it would most likely be over southern portions of the area. There will be a decent breeze from the east/southeast as the low pressure approaches, peaking late Thursday into Friday. Gusts 20-30 mph over land are possible, with gusts 30-40 mph over water. This likely won't be enough for any impacts to trees. Temperatures during the rain will be seasonably cool and generally in the 40s to low 50s.

Another low pressure system looks to pass just south of the waters on Sunday. This may bring additional rain amounts to Downeast and into eastern areas but confidence continues to be low.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR today into this evening with daytime SE winds increasing to around 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt. MVFR develops late tonight along the coast and spreads northward Wednesday morning. Slight chance of IFR at BHB late. Sided with a slower onset of low CIGs and -SHRA given substantial dry air in place, but it could arrive earlier than the 12z TAFs indicate (25 percent chance). LLWS is possible at BHB, but is not expected to be very strong.

Wednesday: MVFR/IFR with -SHRA and -DZ possible. SE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt.

Wed night...IFR south with MVFR/IFR north. Rain and fog possible. SSE 5-15kts, gusts to 20kts.

Thursday...IFR south, MVFR/IFR north. ESE 10-15kts, gusts to 25kts. LLWS possible.

Thursday night...IFR in rain. E 10-15kts. LLWS possible.

Friday...IFR in rain south, becoming MVFR late. IFR north. E 5-10kts Downeast becoming WNW 5-15kts in the afternoon. E 5-15kts north.

Friday night-Saturday...MVFR/IFR, slowly improving to MVFR but very low confidence. W 5-10kts Downeast becoming SW late. WNW 5-10kts north, becoming W late.

MARINE

Seas increase to advisory/SCA levels over the outer waters to 25nm early Wednesday morning, with wind gusts to around 25 kt developing shortly after. Wind gusts to 30 kt and seas 5 to 8 feet will develop over the next tier of offshore zones from 25 to 60nm on Wednesday. Seas will be on a primary wave group with a southeast swell and period of 8 to 10 seconds. SCA seas Wednesday night through Friday evening. Winds increase toward gale force on the ocean waters out to 60nm toward the Hague Line. Gale conditions diminish late Thursday night. Visibilities likely to be reduced in marine fog Wednesday night into Friday morning.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ050-051.