textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Increased rain chances across the north for tonight through Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Anomalously warm temperatures tonight and Friday could approach daily record highs.

2) Additional rainfall expected Friday into the weekend, though amounts are still uncertain. The rainfall could help provide some drought relief.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Anomalously warm temperatures tonight and Friday could approach daily record highs.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A warm front associated with the northern low pressure system will stretch across NB through tonight and Friday. The warm, moist airmass will continue to move into the region with the SSW flow. For tonight, low temps are expected to linger in the 50s across the region. Friday will feature another round of anomalously warm temperatures at least 10 degrees above average, however increasing cloud cover ahead of the next low pressure system and decreased warm air advection may lead to temperatures not quite as warm as earlier in the week, limiting but not completely eliminating the chance for reaching daily record high temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Additional rainfall expected Friday into the weekend, though amounts are still uncertain. The rainfall could help provide some drought relief.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A low pressure system from the Great Lakes region moves east on Friday. This system helps develop a coastal low that will move NE along the New England coast. As of this update, the ensembles seem to agree with the frontal boundary across Downeast on Friday. Then as the low merges and intensifies, rain amounts increase across the south. By Saturday, the low moves NE, spreading rain across the region. The models are in better agreement with the center of the low tracking along the Gulf of Maine and into the Bay of Fundy through the weekend. This will bring continued rain throughout the area. Total rain amounts are still uncertain, but starting to look like 1 to 2 inches for the south and 0.25 to 0.75 inches for the north.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Tonight...MVFR/IFR, in rain. SSW winds 5 to 10 kts. LLWS possible over Downeast terminals.

Friday...MVFR/IFR at Downeast terminals, due to rain and low ceilings. Mainly VFR at northern terminals. S/SW winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming NW at northern terminals, and variable and southern terminals.

Friday night through Saturday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, due to rain, low ceilings, and chance for fog Downeast. N/NE winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, due to rain. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, with gusts 15 to 20 knots possible during the afternoon.

Sunday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, due to rain tapering to showers. NW winds 10 to 15 knots, with gusts to 20 knots possible.

Sunday night-Monday...VFR/MVFR, from a chance of rain showers in the north. W/NW winds 10 to 15 knots, with gusts 20 to 25 knots possible.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR in the north. W winds 5-10 kts.

MARINE

A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for tonight with wind gusts 20 to 25 kts on the coastal waters and seas around 5 ft. Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Friday through Saturday. Rain and patchy fog Friday through Sunday. Winds and seas approach SCA criteria on Sunday into Monday. SW winds Friday, shifting to the N/NW by Sunday.

CLIMATE

Persistent warm air advection into the forecast area over the next two days will lead to temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal, and temperatures could approach daily record highs.

Thursday, November 5 CAR: Record 73 set in 2022... Forecast 64 HUL: Record 70 set in 2022... Forecast 66 MLT: Record 72 set in 2022... Forecast 65 BGR: Record 73 set in 2022... Forecast 68

Friday, November 6 CAR: Record 72 set in 2024... Forecast 61 HUL: Record 71 set in 2022... Forecast 62 MLT: Record 72 set in 2024... Forecast 62 BGR: Record 75 set in 2024... Forecast 65

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EST Friday for ANZ050-051.