textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Confidence in frost tonight over the Bangor Region and interior Downeast Maine has decreased.

Increased confidence in a soaking rain from Wednesday night into Friday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Potential for frost tonight and Tuesday night.

2) Another unsettled stretch with a soaking rainfall expected Wednesday night into Friday AM especially from the Central Highlands to Downeast coast to help continue improving drought conditions.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Potential for frost tonight and Tuesday night.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Sky conditions should clear out tonight with the loss of solar heating, and any wind gusts should abate. The question is how light will the winds get tonight. With winds forecast to get down to only around/just under 5kt, not sure if that will be sufficient to allow for frost formation outside of deeper valleys. Given this uncertainty, did not issue a frost advisory for zones 15-17 at this time. If it appears winds will fall off a bit more than currently expected, then a short fused frost advisory may need to be issued there.

For Tuesday night, with the surface high directly over the area, winds should become mainly calm to go along with clear sky conditions. This, coupled with clear sky conditions, should allow for frost formation down into the Bangor Region and interior Downeast Maine, with lows in this area in the mid 30s. Right now confidence is just below the required 80% threshold to issue a frost advisory for zones 15-17 at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another unsettled stretch with a soaking rainfall expected Wednesday night into Friday morning especially from the Central Highlands to Downeast coast to help continue improving drought conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure over the Great Lakes Wednesday will approach the area from the west. As it reaches coastal New England, a secondary low pressure system is expected to develop just offshore. Rain begins Wednesday evening with the majority of the heaviest precip expected between Wednesday night and Thursday night. The heavier rainfall should taper to widespread showers Friday as high pressure to the east forces the system to slow down in the Gulf of Maine. Unsettled weather may continue into early this weekend with persistent scattered showers. Some questions still remain as to how quickly the system exits the area which will determine how long showery, unsettled weather holds on. Ensemble models show a 50-70% chance of at least and inch of rainfall in the Downeast, Bangor, and Central Highlands regions with only a 25% chance over the North through Friday. This is consistent with thinking that the heaviest precip will be found in southern and central areas.

Moderate-High probabilities of 1 inch or greater rainfall is a great sign as green up is underway in these locations which naturally taxes the groundwater system. Additionally, no flooding is expected but the current normal to above normal streamflows will likely rise into much higher percentiles for this time of year. Those planning to head out for activities along area rivers and streams should expect much faster higher/faster flows.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

High confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Wind gusts should abate by late afternoon/early evening, followed by winds becoming light and variable throughout by mid evening. Winds increase out of the NW-NNW at 6-9KT by mid Tuesday morning, then should become gusty with gusts to around 15-20KT by late Tuesday morning.

Mid-Tuesday afternoon-Wednesday: VFR. NW winds G15-20KT possible Tuesday afternoon. S-SW winds G15-20KT possible Wednesday afternoon.

Wednesday night: MVFR overnight as -RA begin to move in, south to north. S/SE winds 5-15kt.

Thursday-Thursday night: MVFR/IFR likely with -RA. Greatest chance for IFR at southern terminals. S/SE winds 10 to 15 kts today becoming E/NE around 5-10 kts overnight

Friday-Friday night: MVFR/VFR with numerous rain showers, especially at southern terminals. E/NE wind 5 to 10 kts becoming N overnight.

Saturday: MVFR/VFR with scattered rain showers. W/NW wind 5 to 10 kts.

MARINE

Buoys still show some waves in the 5.5-6 ft range, so will continue the SCA on the coastal ocean waters through 6 PM. Otherwise, sub-SCA conditions area expected on all waters tonight-Tuesday night.

Below SCA conditions on all waters Wednesday. SCA winds and seas expected Wednesday night through Thursday night on the coastal waters and intracoastal waters. Seas remain above SCA criteria through Friday night on the intracoastal waters and Saturday on the coastal waters. SCA conditions will be more marginal on the intracoastal waters. Sub-gale conditions are expected on the outer waters Wednesday-Saturday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050- 051.