textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Confidence increasing in potential for winter storm bringing measurable snowfall over the weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A strong storm passing well to the southeast will bring gusty winds to the Downeast region with patchy blowing and drifting snow along the immediate coast today through Monday

2) Widespread accumulating snow possible over the weekend with gusty winds leading to blowing and drifting snow. This may impact weekend travel.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong storm passing well to the southeast will bring gusty winds to the Downeast region with patchy blowing and drifting snow along the immediate coast today through Monday

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A strong low pressure system passes well to our southeast tonight with an expansive wind field that will reach into much of the area, especially Downeast Maine. Expect the strongest gusts of up to 35 to 40 mph right along the coast with wind gusts 25 to 30 mph over the interior Downeast area and progressively lighter winds further north. Little, if any, snowfall is expected from this storm but if any does fall it will likely be in far southeastern Washington county and won't amount to anything more than a dusting. Some patchy blowing and drifting snow is possible but without any new falling snow impacts are likely to be limited. The greatest chance for blowing snow is along the coast where wind gusts will be the greatest.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Widespread accumulating snow possible over the weekend with gusty winds leading to blowing and drifting snow. This may impact weekend travel.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Upper trof dropping south into New England late Friday night looks to eventually close off at some point over the weekend. A Rex Block developing over the North Atlantic will essentially put a stop to it/s forward progress and may result in sfc low developing and deepening over the waters. With enough cold air in place this system has the potential to remain all snow over the entire area and as it strengthens over the weekend, the chances for measurable snow continues to increase.

Where the sfc low moves late in the weekend remains in question but with deepening system over ern Canada strong and gusty northwest winds looking more and more likely. This should bring blowing and drifting snow to most of the region, leading to impacts to weekend travel.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Today...Mainly VFR. MVFR for HUL and possibly PQI and CAR in the afternoon and evening. Some patchy BLSN possible at BGR/BHB in the afternoon but too low confidence to include in TAF. N wind increasing to 10 to 20 kt on Sunday with gusts as high as 30 to 35 kt, mainly KBGR/KBHB.

Tonight...Mainly VFR. 30% chance of MVFR at KBGR and KBHB early. Some patchy BLSN possible at KBGR/KBHB but too low confidence to include in TAF. N winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt at KBGR/KBHB, decreasing slightly overnight. LLWS at KBGR/KBHB/KHUL.

Monday...VFR. N/NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt early, decreasing throughout the day.

Monday night-Tuesday night...VFR. NW 5 kts.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...VFR/MVFR in light snow at terminals. Cannot rule out brief IFR vsbys in snow. NW 5kts.

Thursday...VFR with MVFR possible northern terminals. WNW 5-10kts.

MARINE

Winds increase to gales on the coastal waters early this morning and on the intra-coastal waters by around mid-day today. Winds decrease below gales on the intra-coastal waters early Monday morning and on the coastal waters by mid-day. Winds may decrease below SCA conditions on the intra-coastal waters Monday afternoon but seas will remain above criteria. Seas peak at 8 to 10 ft on the coastal waters and 4 to 7 ft on the intra-coastal waters tonight through Monday. Light/moderate freezing spray through Monday morning.

SCA conditions over the intracoastal zone Monday night with seas remaining above 5ft over the outer waters into Tuesday morning. No headlines expected through Thursday as winds and seas remain below small craft levels.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050>052. Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ050-051. Gale Warning from noon today to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ052.