textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lingered snow about an hour longer over coastal Washington County.

Updated Aviation Section of AFD.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High confidence in quiet weather with no significant impacts today through Monday.

2) Light snow is possible across the north Tuesday into Tuesday evening. This may result in some minor travel difficulties over the north.

3) There is a small chance for a bit of snow over southern areas late Wednesday night into Thursday. Any snow could cause minor travel problems.

4) A chance for some snow late Friday into Saturday. This may result in travel difficulties early next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... High confidence in quiet weather with no significant impacts today through Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The closed low which brought some light snow to the north and snow showers elsewhere last night, exits to the east this morning into Nova Scotia followed by northern stream shortwave ridging building in through tonight. Other than a few lingering snow showers very early this morning over Downeast Maine with the exiting closed low, it should be dry due to 1) subsidence under the northern stream ridging and 2) no shortwaves progged to be advected over the area in the flow aloft.

The ridging exits to the east on Monday as a northern stream shortwave trough passes. With the bulk of the energy associated with this system focused off the mid-Atlantic coast, there should not be sufficient forcing for any precipitation.

Highs today should be near normal, lows tonight from near normal to around 5 degrees below normal, with the largest departures over Downeast Maine and the Bangor Region. Highs on Monday should be a few degrees above normal.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Some light snow is possible across the north Tuesday into Tuesday evening. This may result in some minor travel difficulties over the north.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure tracking into southern Hudson Bay will pull a weak occluded front into our region Monday night. Moisture ahead of this front combined with some lift from frontal convergence and some divergence aloft may support a bit of light snow from the Highlands on north. Any snow amounts will likely be light with snow tapering off to snow showers Tuesday afternoon. Some minor travel difficulties are possible from this snow on Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 3... There is a small chance for a bit of snow over southern areas late Wednesday night into Thursday. Any snow could cause minor travel problems.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure will approach from the Great Lakes on Wednesday and slide south of the region Wednesday night. Most of the forecast guidance suggests blocking to the north will cause this low to weaken and slide to our south with little or no impact on our area. However, there is a small chance that some moisture from this low lifts in to our region Wednesday night bringing a low chance for snow over southern areas Wednesday night. Any snow could impact the morning commute on Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 4... A chance for some snow late Friday into Saturday. This may result in travel difficulties early next weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION... A new low approaching from the west late in the week may bring some snow Friday night into Saturday. There are some indications that blocking to the north will again suppress this low and its moisture to our south. However, latest model guidance indicates there is a slightly better chance of getting snow from this system than from the mid-week system. Any snow could impact travel Friday night into Saturday.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Becoming VFR throughout by mid morning as snow showers exit to the east. It should then remain VFR through the remainder of the TAF period, with one possible exception. There is a very low chance for MVFR ceilings to develop at northern terminals late tonight. At this time, the confidence in this occurring is too low to reflect in the TAFs. Winds become NW at around 10KT by mid morning. KHUL/KBHB could see some gusts to 15-20KT from late this morning through mid-late afternoon. Cannot rule out some gusts at other terminals, just confidence is not high enough to place in the TAFS at this time. Winds become light and variable throughout early this evening.

Monday: High confidence in VFR.

Monday night: VFR dropping to MVFR and possibly IFR in snow over the north. VFR dropping to MVFR across the south. SE wind around 5 kt.

Tuesday: IFR all sites, improving to MVFR north, and improving to MVFR then VFR across the south. S wind around 5 kt.

Tuesday night: MVFR to VFR north and VFR south. SW wind becoming W 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt over the north late.

Wednesday: VFR. NW wind 5 to 10 kt.

Wednesday night: VFR, with a slight chance of dropping to MVFR south. NW wind 5 to 10 kt.

Thursday: VFR. NW wind 5 to 10 kt.

MARINE

SCA conditions develop on all waters this morning. Wind gusts should first abate over the intra-coastal waters early this afternoon and over the coastal ocean waters late this afternoon. Sub-SCA conditons should then persist through Monday.

There also could be some light freezing spray this morning on all waters.

NE winds may reach SCA in gusts late Wednesday night into Thursday. NE winds may again reach SCA Friday night into Saturday with a strong SCA in north winds possible Saturday night. Seas should remain below 5 ft this week but may reach 5 ft over the offshore waters Saturday night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050- 051. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ052.