textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Increased confidence in snow location and amounts for tonight for southern portions of the area. - Increased confidence in light snow moving into Northern Maine Wednesday night. Increased PoPs and QPF late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A few inches of wet snowfall tonight from about 8pm to 4am, heaviest for the Bangor region and Downeast.

2) Warming trend and above normal temperatures for the weekend along with the potential for a wintry mix changing to rain.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A few inches of wet snowfall tonight from about 8pm to 4am, heaviest for the Bangor region and Downeast.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A minor snow event is in store tonight. This will come from a low amplitude upper level shortwave in fast westerly flow, with a weak surface low pressure moving east through the north/central Gulf of Maine. This will be a fast-moving storm, starting around mid-evening and ending in the pre-dawn hours. Models are in pretty good agreement on most aspects of the storm. We can't rule out a few spots reaching 4 inches, but in general most places from the coast north to a Dover- Foxcroft/Lincoln/Topsfield line will top out around 2 to 3.5 inches, not quite enough for an advisory. Models are in good agreement on precipitation totals. There is a bit of uncertainty with snow ratios. Went a bit higher than NBM and closer to the Utah machine learning snow ratios for Downeast. Snow is looking to be on the wetter side. Can't rule out immediate coast mixing with rain especially at the tail end in the pre-dawn hours, but for the most part it'll be snow. A bit of uncertainty in how far north the north edge gets, but in general it looks like areas as far north as Houlton and Greenville should get a light coating around an inch, but probably not Caribou/Presque Isle. Although we have a decent south breeze this afternoon, the wind will be subsiding significantly this evening and wind will not be an issue with this event. Looking mild during the day Wednesday, with low to mid 40s for the areas that got the snow, so expect most if not all the new snow to melt by the end of the day. Roads could still be slushy or snow-covered for the morning commute Wednesday though, as snow will have ended by then but temperatures around dawn will still be just below freezing.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Warming trend and above normal temperatures for the weekend along with the potential for a wintry mix changing to rain.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A negatively tilted trof is expected to cross the region this weekend. The deterministic models are in disagreement with the timing and track of the surface low. In addition, the ensemble models are unsure of where the system will end up. As of this update, the ensembles show a cold front moving across the region late Saturday. Ahead of the front will be a mixed precip event. Light snow is expected with a change over to rain by Saturday afternoon as S flow increases. The NBM is still unsure about the amount of freezing rain and/or sleet, so decided to leave out of the forecast for now. Once the precip switches to all rain, it will remain as rain to Sunday morning. The cold airmass behind the front is very weak, thus not expected to drop temps into the beginning of next week.

Large amounts of snow melt is expected with this system with Downeast losing most of their snowpack. As of this update, the rain totals do not seem to be a threat to flooding. Though there might be some ice rot on ponds and rivers, we do not expect river ice to flush out.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Add discussion here.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Rest of the afternoon...VFR. S-SW winds 10-15kt gusting up to 25kt...diminishing as we approach 0z.

Tonight...IFR/LIFR southern terminals (BHB/BGR) with -SN developing by 3z. Brief RASN mix at BHB possible but mainly -SN. S winds around 5-10kt. VFR/MVFR northern terms. Best chance of MVFR at HUL with -SN. S winds around 5-10kt.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR, but can't rule out periodic MVFR cigs in the north for PQI/CAR/FVE. W wind increasing to 10-15kt with gusts up to 20kt.

Wednesday Night...Generally MVFR north, and VFR south (BGR/BHB). -SN developing in the north. W/NW/N wind around 5 kts.

Thursday...MVFR or lower at the Aroostook terminals in -SN, VFR elsewhere. Light NE winds.

Thursday night and Friday...VFR north, but low chance of MVFR or lower in -SN at KBGR/KBHB. ESE winds 5-10 kts.

Saturday...MVFR or lower possible. Wintry mix to rain. S winds 5-15 kts

Sunday...VFR. W winds 5-10 kts.

MARINE

Small craft SW winds through this evening, then weakening. Seas also at or just above 5 ft through the evening, then dropping a bit late tonight into Wednesday morning. However, seas look to build back up to 5-6 ft Wednesday evening even though winds should stay below small craft levels.

Winds and seas are expected to reach SCA levels Thursday night through Sunday with very brief breaks Friday night and Sunday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ050>052.