textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- A storm system is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday which is likely to bring a wetting rain to the area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and storms will return late Saturday afternoon/evening into Sunday, with locally heavy rain possible Saturday night.

2) Wildfire smoke plume to our south will lift back north into Maine Saturday into Saturday evening potentially resulting in lower visibility.

3) A wetting rain likely Tuesday night through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and storms will return late Saturday afternoon/evening into Sunday, with locally heavy rain possible Saturday night.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A strengthening low pressure system over the Great Lakes will spread showers into the area Saturday afternoon in warm advection. As the surface low approaches northern Maine expect rain to get heavier as a surge of moisture moves north. PW values will approach or exceed the 90th percentile with southern areas seeing 1.50+ inches. Elevated instability may bring isolated thunder to portions of the area and this could produce locally heavy rainfall. Good call to remove the area from the marginal risk for excessive rainfall as rainfall amounts have decreased over the past few model runs. It appears that lift associated with the low pressure across the north may be robbed of moisture with rain further to the south which will be associated with the RFQ of the upr level jet.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Wildfire smoke plume to our south will lift back north into Maine Saturday into Saturday evening potentially resulting in lower visibility.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Large wildfires continue to burn in Ontario near the Great Lakes and additional fires in Manitoba are adding to the smoke plume. This significant plume of wildfire smoke at the near surface levels continues to be south of New England today. However, with the approaching storm system Saturday it will feature a warm front lifting north. As the warm front lifts north expect the smoke plume to lift north as well. Latest HRRR, RAP and RRFS smoke models shows patchy smoke reaching the Downeast coast around noon Saturday then towards evening expecting patchy smoke across the north. Shower activity should help to dissipate the smoke before it becomes too thick. The latest Air Quality Forecast from the Maine Department of Environmental Protection shows Moderate particle pollution is expected areawide on Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A wetting rain likely Tuesday night through Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... A seasonably strong low pressure system approaches late Tuesday from the west and passes to our north with a cold front crossing the area sometime Wednesday. A steady, wetting rain is likely with the system. Current ensemble guidance shows a 70-80% chance of at least 0.5 inches of rainfall with the storm which should help provide relief for some of recent dry conditions.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 00z tonight...VFR. NW winds 5-15 kts gusting to 20-25kts.

Tonight...VFR. WSW winds 5 5-10kts.

Saturday...Mainly VFR in the morning. Patchy smoke could reduce visibilities in the afternoon, potentially to MVFR conditions at times, especially at southern terminals. MVFR at Aroostook terminals in showers and possible storms late in the day. S winds 5-15kts, gusting to 25kts Downeast late.

Saturday night...MVFR/IFR in locally heavy rainfall and storms. S winds 10-20kts. LLWS possible.

Sunday-Sunday night...VFR, MVFR north in afternoon showers/storms. NW winds 10-20kts gusting to 30kts, then becoming W 5-10kts overnight.

Monday-Tuesday...Mainly VFR. W winds 5-10kts, becoming S Tuesday morning 5-15ts gusting to 25kts.

Tuesday night-Wednesday...Decreasing to MVFR early Tuesday night and possibly reaching IFR Wednesday in rain. S/SE winds 10 to 15 kts.

MARINE

Winds remain below SCA criteria with seas around 2-4 feet through Saturday afternoon. Winds pick up out of the south Saturday evening and seas rise to 5-8 feet by early Sunday morning. Have issued a Small Craft Advisory from 19z Sat-18z Sun for winds and seas. Intracoastal zone may be able to be dropped Sunday morning. Gale force winds likely over the waters from 25-60NM Saturday afternoon/evening and have issued a Gale Warning for this time.

Seas remain elevated Sunday above small craft criteria, then winds and seas below SCA criteria Sunday night through Tuesday. Winds and seas above SCA criteria Tuesday night through Wednesday with gales possible on the outer waters.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029- 030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 2 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ050>052. Gale Warning from 4 PM Saturday to 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ080- 081.