textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Issued wind advisory for Northern Maine during the day Tuesday. Increased confidence in gusty winds that could lead to isolated power outages. - Raised rain totals today a bit in Northern Maine.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Strong westerly winds on Tuesday could lead to some isolated power outages. Also, the strong wind coupled with the colder temperatures will lead to dangerous wind chills in the mountains Tuesday.

2) A period of rain is expected today (Monday), mainly in Northern Maine. Totals of one tenth to one half inch are expected in the north, with a tenth of an inch or less Downeast. Little or no drought relief is expected.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong westerly winds on Tuesday could lead to some isolated power outages. Also, the strong wind coupled with the colder temperatures will lead to dangerous wind chills in the mountains Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Confidence has increased for strong wind gusts Tuesday morning and afternoon as an area of low pressure deepens in the Northern Maritimes. Winds will begin to pick up Monday night and peak Tuesday mid-morning through early afternoon. Winds will gradually weaken Tuesday evening into the overnight. Probabilities for 40+ mph wind gusts on Tuesday have increased to 70-90% for northern areas. As a result of the increased confidence, a wind advisory has been issued on Tuesday for Millinocket, Greenville, and areas north. For the Bangor region and interior Downeast, 35+ mph wind gusts probabilities have increased to 50-70%. It is likely that significant leaf loss will occur in areas of Northern Maine where peak foliage has been reached. Additional leaf loss is possible in the Central Highlands to Downeast Maine where the foliage is moderate to high. Gusty winds could also lead to some isolated power outages.

With the colder airmass moving, the strong wind will lead to wind chills dangerously cold in the mountains Monday night through Tuesday night. Katahdin will have wind chills in the teens even in the middle of the day Tuesday. Hikers should be prepared for winter conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A period of rain is expected today (Monday), mainly in Northern Maine. Totals of one tenth to one half inch are expected in the north, with a tenth of an inch or less Downeast. Little or no drought relief is expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Rain today is looking a bit more impressive than before for the north. That said, we still are only expecting from one tenth to one half inch, not exactly much for drought relief. Areas Downeast will be lucky to get one tenth of an inch. The main period of rain in the north is from about 8am to 2pm. With the cold front moving through early afternoon, a thunderstorm or two are possible over the north. Drying is expected for mid to late afternoon behind the cold front, though an isolated shower still cannot be ruled out.

AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Today...As of 930z, conditions are either IFR or low MVFR. Not much change through 14z, then then a bit of improvement 14-17z, then dramatic improvement to VFR after 17z. Rain develops at Aroostook terminals 11-15z and ends 16-19z, and a thunderstorm cannot totally be ruled out just before the rain ends. Rain is less likely at BGR/BHB. S winds will generally be 10-15 kts and then switch to W 10-15 kts.

Monday night-Tuesday...VFR/MVFR north in any lingering low clouds. VFR Downeast. Westerly winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to around 30 knots Monday night. Tuesday, west winds 20 to 30 knots at northern terminals with gusts up to 35-40 knots. West winds 15 to 20 knots at southern terminals with gusts 25-35 knots.

Tuesday night-Wednesday...VFR conditions. W/NW winds 10-15 knots, gusting to 20-25 knots at all terminals. Winds relax to 5-10 knots out of the south area wide for Wednesday and gusts at 15-20 knots.

Wednesday night-Thursday...MVFR north with rain showers/VFR south. S winds 5-10 knots, gusting 15-20 knots at all terminals. Thursday winds WSW at 5-10 knots with gusts 15-20 knots.

Thursday night-Friday...MVFR north/VFR south. SW winds 5-10 knots. Gusts 10-15 knots for all terminals. Friday 5-10 knot winds with gusts up to 10-15 knot gusts.

MARINE

Winds gusts reach gale criteria tonight into Tuesday over the outer waters, with a gale warning in effect. Gales cannot be ruled out within 25 NM, but not enough confidence for gale warning there. Waves peak at 6-7 feet in the outer waters and 4-6 feet in the intracoastal waters. Winds decrease below gale criteria late Tuesday afternoon and evening, and winds and seas decrease below small craft criteria overnight Tuesday. Generally below small craft criteria in the intracoastal waters Wednesday and Thursday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for MEZ001>006-010. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050>052. Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ080-081.