textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes since last forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Occasional snow across northern areas through this evening will continue to impact travel.

2) Areas of blowing snow late tonight and Monday will result in locally reduced visibilities particularly in the open agricultural areas of Aroostook county.

3) Clipper system tracks northwest of the region Wednesday.

4) Strong cold front crosses the region Wednesday night into Thursday with uncertain timing.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Occasional snow across northern areas through this evening will continue to impact travel.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure will intensify across the Canadian Maritimes provinces tonight while an upper level low crosses the region.

After a brief break in the steadier snow this afternoon, another round of snow is expected to develop late this afternoon into this evening. This will primarily impact areas to the north of the Katahdin region. The most likely time for any heavier snowfall rates and travel impacts will be between 5 pm and 10 pm this evening. The snow will gradually wind down after midnight with little additional snow accumulation expected thereafter.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Areas of blowing snow late tonight and Monday will result in locally reduced visibilities particularly in the open agricultural areas of Aroostook county.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Tightening surface pressure gradient in the wake of intensifying low pressure across the Canadian Maritimes will result in gusty northwest winds developing late tonight into Monday afternoon. This will result in areas of blowing snow developing in time for the Monday morning commute, especially across the open agricultural areas of Aroostook county. This will result in the potential for some locally reduced visibilities at times, especially through Monday morning. Winds will gradually decrease by afternoon with the threat of any blowing snow impacts becoming less.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Clipper system tracks northwest of the region Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... A clipper system will track northwest of the region Wednesday. Warmer air will be drawn north across the forecast area in advance of the clipper system. An early rain/snow mix should transition to rain across Downeast areas Wednesday with minimal snow accumulations. Across northern areas, expect precipitation mostly in the form of light snow though the snow could possibly mix with rain during the afternoon. Current indications only support light snow accumulations across northern areas Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 4... Strong cold front crosses the region Wednesday night into Thursday with uncertain timing.

KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION... The clipper system which tracks northwest of the region Wednesday will draw a strong cold front across the region Wednesday night into Thursday. However, the exact timing of this front remains uncertain dependent on the timing/location of low pressure developing in the Mid-Atlantic region Thursday. Temperatures will fall steadily in the wake of the cold front supporting the possibility of a flash freeze dependent on how rapidly temperatures fall Wednesday night into Thursday.

AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Widespread IFR/MVFR conditions are expected at the Aroostook county terminals tonight. Conditions will improve to MVFR Monday morning before improving to VFR in the afternoon, with VFR expected Monday night.

IFR/LIFR ceilings are expected at KBGR/KBHB through early this evening, conditions are then expected to improve VFR tonight and continue through Monday night.

N wind 10 to 15 kt tonight, then increasing to 15 to 25 kt with G35kt, primarily at the Aroostook county airports. W wind 5 to 10 kt Monday night.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR north. VFR Downeast. Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Tuesday night...Across northern areas, VFR/MVFR early then lowering to MVFR/IFR with developing light snow. Across Downeast areas, VFR early then VFR/MVFR with a chance of light snow/rain. South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Wednesday...Across northern areas, IFR/LIFR with light snow possibly mixed with rain during the afternoon. Across Downeast areas, IFR/LIFR a chance of light rain possibly mixed with snow early. South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Wednesday night... Across northern areas, MVFR/IFR then VFR/MVFR. A chance of snow showers. VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers Downeast. Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest/north.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow north. MVFR/IFR with a chance of snow Downeast. Northwest/north winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots.

Thursday night through Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers. North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

MARINE

A gale warning is in effect for the coastal waters tonight through Monday afternoon with gusts up to 45 kt expected at times. Winds/seas will subside to SCA levels by later Monday night.

Small craft advisory conditions possible early Tuesday, then again Tuesday night into Wednesday night. A chance of rain Wednesday, then a chance of rain/snow showers Wednesday night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST Monday for MEZ001>004. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for MEZ005- 006-010-011-031-032. MARINE...Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Monday for ANZ050>052.