textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 7:38AM Update...Update for the 12z TAFs. See the aviation section below.

- Included the western coastal waters in the Small Craft Advisory and moved the start time forward to 3 PM this afternoon. - Increasing confidence on a low pressure system bringing rain Wednesday night and Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showery and breezy today.

2) Rain chances remain limited through midweek, accompanied by near to below normal temperatures. The next best chance for precipitation arrives Wednesday night into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showery and breezy today.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Surface/upper lows vertically stack across the Maritimes today slowing the movement of the system. A disturbance moving around the Maritimes system will rotate across the region today. Isolated/scattered showers will persist across the region today, then diminish tonight. The Maritimes system slowly moves east Sunday. Dependent on how rapidly the Maritimes system moves, isolated/scattered showers wrapping around the system could persist across eastern portions of the forecast area early Sunday. The better chances would occur along the Maine/New Brunswick border. The pressure gradient between the Maritimes low and high pressure to the west will help support breezy conditions today. North/northeast winds will gust up to 20 to 25 mph today.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances remain limited through midweek, accompanied by near to below normal temperatures. The next best chance for precipitation arrives Wednesday night into Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... The low pressure system shift to the NE and exits over the Maritimes. A large upper level ridge will progress across the region. Surface high pressure should keep clouds away Sunday night and Monday. This should result in temps in the low 40s Sunday night and upper 70s on Monday. Shortwave energy should cross the region on Tuesday bringing cloud cover that will reduce high temps and increase low temps. Dry conditions with below normal low temps will continue to Wednesday night. Ensembles show increasing confidence in a large closed low pressure system moving across Canada. However, significant uncertain on the track and timing of the low exists across all deterministic models.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

12z TAF UPDATE...A deck of SCT-BKN MVFR cigs are working into the Aroostook Terms from the east. Expecting a couple hours of potential MVFR cigs then slowly becoming VFR 030-040 cigs. MVFR cigs at BGR and SCT MVFR at BHB. Expecting MVFR to slowly trend VFR this morning. Overall the forecast remains on track of VFR/MVFR at times. Gusty winds are developing right now.

Today...VFR/MVFR with isolated to scattered showers. North/northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots.

Tonight...VFR/MVFR north. VFR Downeast. Isolated showers, mostly early. North/northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming north/northwest 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday...VFR. Isolated showers possible early across eastern areas. North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots, becoming north/northwest 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday night-Monday...VFR. NNW winds 5-10 kts.

Monday night-Tuesday...VFR with possible MVFR cigs at northern terminals late Monday night, becoming VFR Tuesday. WNW winds 5-10 kts.

Wednesday...VFR in the morning, MVFR/IFR in the afternoon due to rain. S winds 5-15 kts.

MARINE

Have expanded the Small Craft Advisory to also include the western coastal waters and moved the start time forward to 3 PM this afternoon. The end time remains 10 AM Sunday. Wind gusts on the intra-coastal waters could approach small craft advisory levels. Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels Sunday night through Wednesday. Winds are expected to be breezy from WNW for this period. Seas should remain 1-3 ft for all waters. Isolated showers today.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ050-051.