textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

550 am update... Arctic front has finally pushed offshore, thus have cancelled the Dense Fog Advisory for Downeast.

Updated Aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cold temperatures tonight will combine with northwesterly winds to produce apparent temperatures as low as 30 below zero over portions of the North Woods late tonight. Take extra precautions and bundle up late tonight and be sure to bring pets inside.

2) A small low tracking off the coast may bring a period of snow to Downeast Maine Tuesday night. This could impact the Wednesday morning commute with some snow covered and slippery roads.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold temperatures tonight will combine with northwesterly winds to produce apparent temperatures as low as 30 below zero over portions of the North Woods late tonight. Take extra precautions and bundle up late tonight and be sure to bring pets inside.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Arctic front is currently crossing Downeast and will be offshore by sunrise. Cold air will continue to funnel into the region today with temps over the far north rebounding to near 10 degrees late this morning before falling. Further south temps will top out in the mid-upr 20s. Variable clouds expected this afternoon with most areas becoming mostly sunny just before sunset. However, with nw winds gusting to between 20-25 mph this afternoon wind chill temperatures will remain below zero over the north.

As temps drop rapidly under clear skies tonight expect mins will drop to between minus 15 to minus 20 over the North Woods. This will lead to apparent temperatures below minus 25 from just after midnight through daybreak. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for nw Aroostook and nrn Somerset County late tonight into Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A small low tracking off the coast may bring a period of snow to Downeast Maine Tuesday night. This could impact the Wednesday morning commute with some snow covered and slippery roads.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A weak and shallow wave of low pressure is expected to track across Southern New England Tuesday evening and then continue along the Southern Gulf of Maine overnight Tuesday night. This has the potential to bring a couple inches of snow to Downeast Maine overnight. Forecast models are currently not in good agreement on the track of this low with the NAM taking the low further south and missing the coast entirely while the GFS and ECMWF brush the Downeast region with a period of light snow bringing a chance for a small accumulation. Temperatures look marginal along the immediate coast where some rain may mix in. Any snow could result in some slippery, slushy and snow covered roads early Wednesday morning impacting the morning commute. Roads will likely be just wet by late morning with temperatures rising above freezing.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Today...Mainly VFR today with light snow and unrestricted vsbys at Downeast terminals mid-morning into this afternoon. NW 5-15kts gusting to 20kts today.

Tonight...VFR. WNW 5-10kts.

Monday...VFR. W 5-10kts.

Monday night...VFR, possibly lowering to MVFR over the far north late. SW wind around 5 kt.

Tuesday...MVFR over the far north. VFR elsewhere. SW wind 10 to 15 kt.

Tuesday night...VFR, possibly lowering to MVFR and then IFR along the coast. Light and variable wind.

Wednesday...MVFR Downeast becoming VFR. VFR elsewhere. W wind around 5 kt.

Wednesday night...VFR lowering to IFR south and MVFR north. SW wind around 5 kt.

Thursday...VFR north. IFR becoming MVFR and possibly VFR south. N wind 5 to 10 kt.

MARINE

SCA in effect through tonight with winds NNW winds gusting to 25kts. Winds and seas will drop below small craft levels through Monday. Moderate freezing spray develops late this evening through Monday afternoon with a Freezing Spray Advisory in effect for all waters.

SW winds will increase to SCA Monday night then gale on Tuesday. Winds will drop back to SCA then below SCA Tuesday night. Another SCA may be needed Thursday night into Friday. Seas will be up to 8 ft Tuesday night subsiding to 4 to 5 ft Wednesday. Seas may build back up to 6 ft Thursday into Thursday night then drop back to 5 ft on Friday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 AM EST Monday for MEZ001- 003. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ050>052. Freezing Spray Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ050>052.