textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

UPDATE 905AM: Radar scans show heavier snow bands moving through the south earlier than previously forecast. Adjusted the weather forecast to show this. Otherwise, the rest of the forecast looks good.

*Updated aviation section below.

* Increasing confidence in a slight north shift of low track Sunday night, leading to higher confidence in accumulating snowfall across Downeast into Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Snow today into early this evening will impact travel, especially from Houlton south.

2) Glancing blow from storm Sunday night could bring accumulating snow Downeast and potentially hazardous travel for the Monday morning commute.

3) Very cold wind chills through the middle of the week may pose a risk for frostbite and hypothermia.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Snow today into early this evening will impact travel, especially from Houlton south.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A weak area of low pressure will track along the Downeast coast today and then quickly into New Brunswick province tonight. This system will bring a period of snow to the region today. The greatest impacts with this system will generally be from the Houlton region south through Bangor. It continues to appear that a band of heavier snow will develop from around the Houlton region, through portions of central Penobscot and northern Washington counties. This will likley impact travel along the I-95 corridor this afternoon, especially from Houlton, to Medway, and down through Lincoln region. A winter weather advisory remains in effect for this region into this evening. The snow should taper off early this evening as the low tracks quickly into New Brunswick province.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Glancing blow from low pressure Sunday night could bring accumulating snow Downeast and potentially hazardous travel for the Monday morning commute.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A low pressure system will pass south of Nova Scotia Sunday night, but the exact track of this low will play a role in how much precipitation occurs in our forecast area. Recent runs of deterministic models, such as the GFS, confined the precip shield such that little to no precip was forecast to fall within our CWA. Meanwhile, ensemble models and particularly the AI GFS have been suggesting a track that hugs closer to the southern Nova Scotia border. Just this subtle change in storm track could bring precip up into southern Aroostook. Of note, the 00z deterministic GFS has begun to shift slightly northwards, jumping on this trend for more QPF in our CWA.

The most likely area to receive snowfall will be coastal Washington county, but confidence is increasing that more of the Interior Downeast region could see measurable snowfall by early Monday morning, with at least a couple inches of total snowfall. Precip will begin to taper off through Monday morning, but the timing of this system could result in sloppy conditions for the Monday morning commute.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Very cold wind chills through the middle of the week may pose a risk for frostbite and hypothermia.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... An arctic airmass will follow the recent trough to dig through the area, with cold temperatures below average settling over the forecast area. As winds pick up on Tuesday ahead of the next approaching low pressure, wind chills will begin to be driven colder, and overnight Tuesday night wind chills may approach at least 20 below across the north, and approach 10 below Downeast. A warm front could lift through the area on Wednesday, bringing a slight reprieve to these very cold temperatures briefly through the middle of the week.

AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR expected through 14z, then conditions will deteriorate to IFR from south to north in snow at all the terminals, except a rain/snow mix at KBHB. Highest confidence in IFR conditions will be at KHUL/KBGR/KBHB. IFR conditions continue through early this evening, then improve to MVFR/VFR aft 06Z Sunday. S wind less than 10 kt today, then variable less than 10 kt tonight.

Outlook for Sunday...VFR/MVFR. Chance -SN. SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Sunday night: VFR with slight chance MVFR in north, MVFR Downeast terminals with chance IFR/LIFR in snow. Winds light and variable.

Monday - Monday night: Improving to VFR/MVFR across all terminals. SW winds 5 to 10 kts. Gusts to 20 kts late.

Tuesday: VFR Downeast, chance MVFR cigs at northern terminals. W winds 10 to 15 kts gusting 20 to 25 kts.

Tuesday night: VFR Downeast, chance MVFR/IFR at northern terminals with possible BR. SW winds 5 to 10 kts.

Wednesday: VFR Downeast, chance MVFR at northern terminals with approaching snow. S winds 5 to 10 kts.

Wednesday night: VFR with possible MVFR in approaching snow Downeast, northern terminals MVFR/IFR. S winds 5 to 10 kts.

MARINE

Have extended the small craft advisory for the outer waters through 5 am Sunday morning, as seas are expected to remain elevated at 5 to 7 ft through much of tonight. Winds/seas are expected to remain below small craft levels through most of the day.

Gusts will approach gale force Monday through Monday night as a low pressure system passes south of the Gulf of Maine. Meanwhile, seas will approach 6 to 12 feet across the waters. Gale conditions could last into the middle of the week before gradually tapering into the day on Wednesday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for MEZ006-011-032. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Sunday for ANZ050-051.