textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Saturday. However, all day rainfalls are not expected.

2) Very warm temperatures today through Friday and increasingly muggy. Hazardous heat is possible Wednesday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through Saturday. However, all day rainfalls are not expected.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... With warming temperatures and increasing humidity levels, afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances will increase with diurnal heating Tuesday through Saturday. Also, the upper level ridge axis will remain west of the region keeping the forecast area in a northwest flow aloft. This pattern favors thunderstorm complexes moving over the top of the ridge then tracking across the forecast area during the overnight hours. This pattern also supports the possibility of severe thunderstorms at times Tuesday into Saturday. However, the timing of any severe threat is still uncertain. Those with outdoor plans Tuesday through Saturday should be alert for the risk of thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Very warm temperatures today through Friday and increasingly muggy. Hazardous heat is possible Wednesday through Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... In addition to the afternoon showers and storms, the heat is another thing to watch out for. There is still some uncertainty just how warm it will get, but at the least we will be looking at is low to mid 80s for highs and upper 50s to mid 60s for lows. The greatest risk for the warmest temperatures is Wednesday through Friday, as on today and Tuesday the heat will still be building. Some locations will be getting up to around 90 degrees Wednesday to Friday. In addition, it will be quite muggy and if we get air temperatures up close to 90, heat indices will likely begin to reach heat advisory criteria which is 95. Right now, for each day Wednesday through Friday, the chance of reaching heat advisory criteria (95 heat index) is 25-50 percent, highest in the area from Penobscot Bay Region to Bangor to Dover-Foxcroft, at some point between Wednesday and Friday. As of now, Thursday seems to have the highest heat index of the three days. In addition, nighttime low temperatures will be quite mild and those without air conditioning will really start feeling the effects later in the week.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Today: Variable conditions with any morning fog. Otherwise, VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Tonight: Variable conditions with any overnight fog. Otherwise, VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Tuesday: Variable conditions with any morning fog. Variable conditions with any afternoon thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Tuesday night-Wednesday night: VFR, except for a chance of MVFR or lower in any fog late at night/early in the morning and a brief chance for MVFR in any stronger convection in the afternoon/early evening. S winds at 5-10 kt, gusts to 15 kt.

Thursday-Friday: VFR, except for a chance of MVFR or lower in any fog late at night/early in the morning and a brief chance for MVFR in any stronger convection in the afternoon/early evening. E winds at 5-10 kt, gusts to 15 kt.

MARINE

Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today through Tuesday. Areas of fog today into Tuesday.

Expecting winds less than 15 kt and seas 3 ft or less over all waters through Friday. Fog will reduce visibility less than 1nm at times through midweek on all the waters. Showers and thunderstorms are possible over the waters nearly every afternoon Wednesday through Friday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.