textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- No major changes to the forecast for this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures through the end of the week combined with some rainfall will result in river ice continuing to break up, melt, and clear out on the northern rives.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures through the end of the week combined with some rainfall will result in river ice continuing to break up, melt, and clear out on the northern rives.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High temperatures across the north are expected to be in the low 50s through mid-week and in the upper 50s to near 60 late this week. This will result in river ice across the north continuing to melt and break up. So far there has been no ice jam flooding reported and the ice-out has been gentle. However, some of the river gauges across the north including Dickey and Fort Kent on the St. John River have shown some spikes and fluctuations in river level as the ice begins to move.

Additional rainfall across the north of around a half inch today and a quarter inch Tuesday night will add to the snow and ice melt contributing to additional rises on the rivers. Significant flooding is currently not anticipated at this time. However, given that the ice is still moving and breaking up, we will have to continue to monitor the potential for some ice jams and continued fluctuation of river levels over the north.

AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR will quickly diminish between 08-10z to MVFR as cigs and rain move into terminals from south to north. IFR cigs/vsbys expected at Downeast terminals before 12z and after 12z for Aroostook terminals. IFR/LIFR expected through most of the day at sites under low cigs and fog. S 10-15kts gusting to 20-25kts in the afternoon. LLWS at FL020 from the SSW 40-45kts today.

Tonight...IFR/MVFR with rain coming to an end in the evening. NW 5- 15kts.

Tuesday...MVFR early north then improving to VFR by afternoon, VFR southern terminals. Northern terminals then drop to MVFR late. NW 5- 10kts early, becoming ESE late.

Tuesday night...IFR, improving to MVFR then VFR late. SE to E wind around 5 kt.

Wednesday...MVFR dropping to IFR south. IFR north, improving to MVFR late. SE to E wind around 5 kt.

Wednesday night...MVFR to VFR north. IFR TO MVFR south. N wind around 5 kt.

Thursday...MVFR becoming IFR south. VFR becoming MVFR then IFR north. SE wind 5 to 10 kt.

Thursday night...IFR, becoming MVFR late. Light and variable wind.

Friday...VFR. NW wind around 5 kt.

MARINE

Southerly winds gusting aoa small craft levels over all waters. Winds may gust to marginal gales briefly but stable layer moving over the waters will keep gusts between 30-33kts this morning. Winds drop below SCA levels after midnight but seas remain above 5ft into Tuesday morning. Cannot rule out needing to extend Small Craft Advisory over the ocean waters into Tuesday afternoon.

Wind and seas will remain below SCA from mid week this week through the coming weekend. Moist air over the colder waters may result in some fog and mist over the waters and along the coast at times, especially Wednesday and again on Friday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ052.