textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- No major changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Generally dry weather today through late this week.

2) Nor'easter could potentially cause minor beach erosion to the coast from tonight into possibly Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Generally dry weather today through late this week.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... An extended period of dry weather is expected through the end of the week under extremely dry airmass. Noreaster spins off of the mid-Atlantic coast before exiting to the east Thu into Fri. Some discrepancies in model guidance are beginning to show with a few ensemble solutions closing off an upper low over the northeast by the end of the week which could bring some light rain/snow showers to the area Thursday night into Friday. Thus, confidence is lower in no precipitation expected through the end of the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Nor'easter could potentially cause minor beach erosion to the coast from tonight into possibly Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A cutoff low off the Mid Atlantic Coast lifts Wednesday morning northeast through Thursday morning, then either continues northeast into The Maritimes or heads eastward Friday.

Ensemble guidance generally keeps the storm well offshore but a few solutions bring it further north towards our area. If the stronger, more northern solutions for this Nor'easter are correct, then there could be some minor beach erosion along portions of the Downeast coast around the time of high tide tonight into at least Thursday. While predicted water levels will remain below coastal flood benchmarks, there could be sufficient wave setup/runup over multiple high tide cycles to cause some minor beach erosion at more vulnerable locations along the coasts of Hancock and Washington Counties. With the vast majority of solutions with the Nor'easter not favoring a stronger and more northward track at this time, the current chance for even minor beach erosion with this system is very low, at 10-20%.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

18z TAF UPDATE...

Rest of Today...VFR. NW winds 5-10kts gusting to 20kts at terminals.

Tonight...VFR. N winds 5-10kts. Cannot rule out BCFG at terms between 09-12z. but confidence is low.

Wednesday...VFR. Light winds becoming ESE Aroostook terminals and NE BGR and BHB.

Wednesday night: With the possible exception of a low chance of MVFR or lower in patchy fog late, it should be VFR. Light and variable winds overnight.

Thursday: High confidence in VFR at northern terminals and KBGR. Downeast terminals most likely will be VFR, however there is a very low chance of MVFR or lower conditions in rain, with the best chance near the immediate coast. N/NW winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts.

Thursday night-Friday: VFR, with a chance of MVFR in scattered snow/rain showers. N/NW winds 15 to 20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts.

Friday night-Saturday: VFR. WNW winds 5 to 10 kts.

Saturday night-Sunday: VFR. W winds around 5 kts Saturday night, becoming SW 5 to 10 kts Sunday.

MARINE

N winds gust to 25kts over the coastal waters late today and tonight. SCA is in effect today through tonight for winds gusting to 30kts with seas building to between 3-5 ft in serly swell.

Winds and seas decrease below SCA criteria Wednesday afternoon and remain below criteria through Thursday. SCA conditions on the coastal and intracoastal waters Thursday night into Friday with a 50% chance of gales on the outer waters. Seas peak at 4 to 6 ft on the coastal waters and 6 to 8 ft on the outer waters early Friday. Below SCA conditions on the coastal and intracoastal waters late Friday night into Sunday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051.