textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased rate at which rain overspreads into eastern zones tonight.

Lowered highs Sunday due to rainfall.

KEY MESSAGES

Wetting rainfall from tonight into Sunday reduces immediate fire weather concerns.

2) Potential for a soaking rain event mid-week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Wetting rainfall from tonight into Sunday reduces immediate fire weather concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The axis of a full latitude trough approaches tonight, then a northern stream trough/developing closed low moves ahead of the mean trough and crosses the area Sunday, exiting into the Maritimes Sunday night. At the surface a broad area of low pressure approaches from the west tonight as a coastal low develops along it off the mid-Atlantic coast. This low then tracks northeast on Sunday into eastern Nova Scotia by Sunday evening. It then continues on into the Maritimes Sunday night.

The result will be mainly isolated to scattered showers, with a pocket of numerous showers across central and east central Maine, this afternoon giving way to rain developing from SW to NE tonight. This rain continues into Sunday morning, then tapers off from W to E from Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. There is still some uncertainty on the western/northwestern extent of the rainfall with this system. However confidence has increased in the idea of a wetting rainfall, especially across Downeast Maine and eastern Aroostook and northern Penobscot Counties. Rainfall amounts from this afternoon into Sunday evening should range from 1 to 1.25" across Downeast Maine, 0.5 to up to 1" across northern Penobscot and eastern Aroostook counties, and less than 0.5 inch elsewhere. Northern Somerset and far western portions of Aroostook county could receive less than 0.1" of rainfall. This rainfall coupled with a soaking rain a few days ago should help keep immediate fire weather concerns at a minimum.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Potential for a soaking rain event mid-week.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure system to the northwest moves closer to New England by mid-week next week, bringing some rain showers into the region Tuesday. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms on Tuesday in the northwest, based on marginal instability parameters. There is decent low and mid level lapse rates, along with a few joules of CAPE. Looking at partially cloud skies on Tuesday. Warming temperatures, with highs in the upper 60s in northern and eastern Maine. In the 50s along the Downeast coast. Breezy day anticipated, with gusts up to 35 mph possible in northern and eastern Maine. With increasing moisture and winds relaxing overnight on Tuesday, slight chance for foggy conditions along Downeast coast.

Cold front slowly moves through Tuesday into Thursday, as a new low pressure system along a passing shortwave develops, bringing another round of precipitation Wednesday and Thursday. Downeast region has the best chance of receiving an inch or more of precipitation. Northern and Central Highlands region could see up to an inch.

Highs tomorrow will be a bit chilly for this time of year, mainly in the 40s, which is around 10-15 degrees below normal.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

High confidence in VFR at all terminals to start. Conditions lower to MVFR from S to N this afternoon and tonight. IFR conditions are then possible at all terminals from late tonight into Sunday. KBGR and possibly KBHB could see conditions improve to MVFR late Sunday morning, but only confident enough to reflect this in the KBGR TAF at this time.

Winds becoming light and variable throughout this afternoon/early this evening and then should remain so into Sunday morning. There is a chance the flow could increase to 6-9 kt out of the N-NE by mid-late Sunday morning. So far only confident enough to reflect this in the TAFs at KFVE and KBGR.

LLWS possible at southern terminals late this afternoon and tonight, however confidence in this is not high enough to reflect in the TAFs at this time.

Late Sunday afternoon/night: IFR at eastern terminals/MVFR at western terminals, gradually improving to VFR from W to E.

Monday-Monday Night: VFR in the morning, becoming MVFR at northern terminals due to scattered rain showers. VFR Monday night. Winds W/SW Monday, gusting to 25kts. Becoming S Monday night.

Tuesday-Thursday...VFR across all terminals on Tuesday morning, turning to MVFR from west to east as rain showers enter the area during the afternoon. Winds S Tuesday, gusting to 25 to 30 kts by Tuesday afternoon. Gusts relax to 20 kts by Wednesday. Winds shift clockwise Wednesday night into Thursday, gusting to around 15-20 kts.

MARINE

Wind gusts should stay just under SCA levels tonight on the intra-coastal and coastal waters, with gusts to around 20 kt. Should see some gusts to around 25 kt on the open ocean waters out to 60 nm. Sub-SCA conditions should continue on the intra- coastal and coastal ocean waters Sunday, with gusts to around 25 kt again possible on the open ocean waters out to 60 nm. There is a chance for SCA conditions on the coastal ocean waters Sunday night, but confidence is not high enough to issue any headlines at this time. For now it appears the intra-coastal waters should stay below SCA levels Sunday night, with SCA conditions possible on the coastal ocean waters. It appears the open ocean waters out to 60 nm could see gusts to 30 kt Sunday night.

Small Craft conditions over intra-coastal and outer waters begin on Monday, and persist into Tuesday. Chance for winds to ramp up to Gale Force conditions over all waters on Wednesday. Seas up to 6 ft for intra-coastal waters, and 8 ft over outer-waters Monday night. Seas up to 10 ft for intra-coastal waters, and 12 ft over outer-waters Tuesday night. Rain expected Tuesday into Thursday. Winds from the SW Monday, shifting S on Tuesday into Wednesday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.