textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

-Adjusted winds down slightly for today

-Update for 12z aviation discussion

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cool temperatures will continue through the weekend, with areas of frost developing over much of the area Saturday night. Precautions should be taken to protect sensitive vegetation.

2) Afternoon thunderstorms possible each day Sunday through Tuesday.

3) Much warmer Wednesday through Friday, with finally two dry days in a row Wednesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool temperatures will continue through the weekend, with areas of frost developing over much of the area Saturday night. Precautions should be taken to protect sensitive vegetation.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Cloudy skies and an upper level trof remaining over the area tda will lead to below normal temperatures. Temps will remain in the 50s over most locations, with highs running above 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year.

Skies will clear this evening as a brief upper ridge leads to subsidence over western and central portions of the area. This will allow for radn't cooling conditions as winds become light and variable with decoupling looking likely overnight. Have continued trend of mins below guidance with temps dropping into the middle 30s north of Downeast and into the lower 30s across the north and west. This will lead to areas of frost with a Frost Advisory likely needed tonight where the growing season is active, all but the North Woods which does not become active until Monday.

Temperatures begin to moderate on Sunday with most areas topping out in the lower 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Afternoon thunderstorms possible each day Sunday through Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Sunday: Another wave drops down on Sunday afternoon with the core of the cold pool aloft moving over western areas. This may lead to isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon with steepening lapse rates. Instability is meager with only a few hundred Joules of CAPE present but cannot rule out an isolated storm.

Monday: Thunderstorms will be possible again Monday afternoon. The main threat Monday is over Northern Maine (mainly north of Millinocket) where there is a 30-40 percent chance of showers and 20 percent chance of thunderstorms. Strong/severe storms are not expected.

Tuesday: For the third straight afternoon, there could be some thunderstorms. For Tuesday, it's too early to pinpoint the greatest threat area, as a lot depends on the track and amplitude of an upper level trough approaching from the north. Right now, going for about a 40 percent chance of showers and 20 percent chance of thunderstorms for the majority of the area. Again, not expecting anything strong/severe, or anything terribly widespread any of the days Sunday to Tuesday, but anyone with outdoor plans should be alert for the chance of storms.

Temperatures Sunday through Tuesday will still be a bit cooler than average.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Much warmer Wednesday through Friday, with finally two dry days in a row Wednesday and Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...High pressure builds in Wednesday and Thursday, with means finally some dry days for the vast majority of the area. Temperatures also rebound to around 70 on Wednesday and then potentially around 80 Thursday/Friday. We are fairly confident in above average temperatures Thursday/Friday, but just how much above average is the question. Highs of 75-85 seem like a reasonable expectation. Shower/storm chances could begin to return Friday, though plenty of uncertainty that far out.

AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Today...KFVE likely to see VFR today, while remaining Aroostook terminals will improve to VFR by 14z this morning. KBGR and KBHB improving after 18z this afternoon. NE winds 5-15kts with gusts to 20kts, affecting Downeast terminals.

Tonight...VFR. Winds becoming near calm overnight.

Sunday...VFR with possible MVFR in showers. ENE winds 5-10kts.

Sunday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR, with MVFR possible at times. Afternoon showers and storms possible Monday/Tuesday. Light winds.

Wednesday...VFR with light winds.

MARINE

SCA level winds present over the intracoastal zone through 15z this morning. Winds increase to gales out to 25NM within the next 3 hours before diminishing after 15z this morning. Gales transition over to small craft conditions through 00z, with combination of winds and seas. Gale force winds move into 25-60NM offshore zones within the next hour and remain through 00z this evening.

Quiet conditions on the waters Sunday through Wednesday with seas generally 3 ft or less and winds below small craft criteria. There is a 40 percent chance of winds reaching small craft criteria (25 kts) on Wednesday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ052. Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ080-081.