textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Have expanded the Small Craft Advisory to include the intra- coastal waters through 4 PM this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers likely today. Isolated thunderstorms also possible across mostly northern areas this afternoon. Little drought relief expected.

2) Warm temperatures and gusty winds this weekend before the next rain chances early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers likely today. Isolated thunderstorms also possible across mostly northern areas this afternoon. Little drought relief expected.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... At the surface, a cold front will cross the region today. Aloft, a disturbance will cross the region today in advance of an approaching trof. Showers will occur across the region today with these features. Lapse rates steepen with the upper level disturbance this afternoon, with CAPE values of 300 to 500 J/kg possible. Enough instability should exist this afternoon to also support the possibility of isolated thunderstorms across mostly northern areas. Cold air aloft could also possibly support small hail with any thunderstorms. Additional rain totals today will generally be less than a quarter inch, providing little drought relief. Showers end this evening. The upper trof crosses the region Friday while a disturbance moves through the trof supporting another chance of showers.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Warm temperatures and gusty winds this weekend before the next rain chances early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... High pressure builds over the region Saturday and moves off the coast to our south Sunday. Gusty winds out of the southwest will develop between the high and the weakened remnants of Isaias as it moves into the Ohio valley Saturday into Sunday. These winds will help to funnel warmer temperatures (upper 60s to low 70s) into the area for Sunday and Monday, potentially 10-15 degrees above average for this time of year. As the system moves off the southern New England coast, it could bring a chance of showers for the Downeast coast Sunday night into Monday. Rain chances could decrease if the system stays further south. A separate low pressure develops over the Great Lakes Monday night as a trough deepens behind the departing tropical remnants. This will bring a chance of rain for the beginning of next week.

AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Today...Occasional IFR/LIFR early. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR. Scattered/numerous showers. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms also possible, mostly north. South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Tonight...VFR. Isolated/scattered showers possible early. Southwest/west winds 5 to 10 knots.

Friday...VFR/MVFR north. VFR Downeast. A slight chance/chance of showers. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Friday night...VFR/MVFR north improving to VFR. VFR Downeast. West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Saturday and Saturday night...VFR. West/northwest winds at 10-15 knots gusting up to 25 knots. Light winds Saturday night.

Sunday and Sunday night...VFR. Winds from the south/southwest at 10-15 knots gusting up to 25 knots.

Monday...VFR/MVFR for a chance of scattered showers throughout the day. WSW winds at 5-10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

MARINE

Have expanded the Small Craft Advisory to include the intra- coastal waters through 4 PM this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM this evening for the coastal waters. A few wind gusts could approach small craft advisory levels Friday. Scattered showers today, with isolated showers possible Friday.

Small craft advisory wind conditions possible Friday night into early Saturday. Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Saturday afternoon. Wind and seas could reach small craft advisory conditions again Sunday through early Monday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050- 051. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ052.