textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 6 AM Update: Adjustments to the Aviation section below with the 12z TAFs.

- Increased confidence in chance for gusty winds 25 to 30 mph this afternoon throughout the forecast area alongside continued rain showers.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers today into the weekend along with a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms.

2) A low pressure system passes through the region Monday night into Tuesday, though track and timing are uncertain.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers today into the weekend along with a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A broad upper level trough continues to sit over the state today into this weekend, persisting an unsettled pattern with scattered rain showers every day. The greatest chance for rain showers will be across the north, closer to the center of the source of broad instability, though showers down through Bangor and the Interior Downeast region are possible as well. Weak CAPE with the instability from this synoptic pattern could support isolated afternoon thunderstorms each day through this weekend.

Temperatures will be cool, especially across the north where persistent cloud cover will limit surface heating, and temperatures are expected to remain below average through the weekend. For Bangor and the Downeast region, increased breaks in the cloud cover will allow temperatures to lift into the mid 70s today, but high temperatures will return to below average through the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A low pressure system passes through the region Monday night into Tuesday, though track and timing are uncertain.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... An upper level low moves into the region from the Great Lakes Monday evening. Models differ on the track of the low. The Euro has the track off the coast with the majority of the precip over the Gulf of Maine. The GFS and Canadian have the low just on shore, bringing the heaviest of the precip to southern parts of the area. The model trends have been uncertain, with differing trends in strength, timing, and track. This system will need to continue to be monitored.

AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Today...IFR/LIFR conditions continue through the morning hours, prior to skies scattering out from south to north into the afternoon hours. Lingering -SHRA continues, particularly north of KBGR. Gusty, with WSW winds 10 to 15 kts gusting 20 to 30 kts.

Tonight...BKN-OVC IFR/LIFR conditions return over northern terminals, while KBGR/KBHB and Downeast terminals remain VFR overnight. W winds 5 to 10 kts.

Saturday...Improvement back to VFR across all terminals. -SHRA remains possible at all terminals, though most likely north of KBGR. NW winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts.

Saturday night...VFR. A slight chance of showers, mostly north, which could result in some MVFR conditions. Some patchy fog is possible. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming north/northwest 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with showers. Chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming variable.

Sunday night...VFR. Patchy fog possible. Winds light and variable.

Monday - Monday night...MVFR/IFR in heavier showers, with a chance of thunderstorms. South winds 5-10 knots, becoming northeast 5-10 knots. Uncertainty in track of low pressure system, which could shift precip more offshore and shift forecasted wind direction.

Tuesday... MVFR/IFR in heavier showers, with a chance of thunderstorms. Improving to VFR late afternoon. NE winds 5-10 knots gusts to 20 knots, shifting to NW 5-10 knots.

MARINE

Seas 4 to 7 ft through the day today have lead to the extension of the Small Craft Advisory through this afternoon for intracoastal and coastal waters, and seas above 5 ft will likely continue into the night tonight for the coastal and outer waters out to 60 NM. Gusts may briefly reach 25 kts early today across all waters before diminishing tonight and into the day on Saturday. Seas will gradually diminish tonight through Saturday as well.

Winds and seas below SCA criteria Saturday night into Sunday. Seas and winds increase to SCA criteria Monday night into Tuesday, with waves 5-8 ft and gusts to 30 kt with onshore flow and heavy showers and possible thunderstorms over the waters.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ052.