textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Occasional rain today and tonight, with the greater totals Downeast.

2) Showers and thunderstorms likely this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Occasional rain today and tonight, with the greater totals Downeast.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Surface low pressure slowly tracks across the southern Gulf of Maine today through tonight, while the supporting upper low crosses the region. Occasional rain will occur across the region today through early tonight, then diminish overnight. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible, mostly Downeast. The greater rainfall totals today through tonight will generally occur across Downeast areas, with lesser totals northward across the remainder of the forecast area. Rainfall totals are generally expected to range from a tenth to quarter inch north, with around quarter to third of an inch across central areas with around a third to a half inch Downeast. However, local variations in these totals will occur.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers and thunderstorms likely this weekend into early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A cold front approaches our area Saturday with an area of low pressure developing along it Saturday night. The low should pass north of our area Sunday into Monday. Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms possible over the North Woods Saturday as the cold front approaches with more showers and a greater likelihood for thunderstorms Sunday as low pressure passes to our north. The greatest chance for storms will be over northern and western Maine as southerly flow is likely to keep stable marine air over more southern and eastern areas. Models generally show several hundred J/kg of instability but are still uncertain on exact amounts. Thus, limited confidence in storm severity at this time.

AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Today...Across northern areas, VFR/MVFR occasional IFR with occasional rain. Patchy morning fog. Across Downeast areas, MVFR/IFR occasional LIFR with occasional rain. Isolated thunderstorms also possible. Areas of morning fog. Northeast/north winds 5 to 10 knots with gusts up to around 15 knots.

Tonight...Across northern areas, VFR/MVFR with rain tapering to showers. Across Downeast areas, MVFR/IFR occasional LIFR with rain tapering to showers. Variable conditions with patchy fog regionwide. North/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots.

Friday...Variable conditions with any patchy fog early. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR. Isolated showers possible. North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming variable.

Friday night...MVFR/IFR with any patchy fog late. Otherwise, VFR. Light and variable winds.

Saturday...MVFR/IFR in early morning fog. Otherwise, VFR. S/SW winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday night...MVFR/IFR with any patchy fog late. Otherwise, VFR. Light S winds overnight.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially at southern terminals. Patchy fog possible early at southern terminals. S winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Sunday night - Monday...MVFR with rain showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Light S winds Sunday night, becoming W/SW at 5-10 kts during the day Monday. Gusts to 20 kts possible.

MARINE

Seas could approach small craft advisory levels on the coastal waters today into tonight though not enough confidence to issue a small craft advisory at this time. Rain today, with isolated thunderstorms also possible. A chance of rain tonight. Patchy/areas of fog today. Patchy fog tonight into Friday morning.

Seas 2-4 ft this weekend through Monday. SW winds Friday night through Saturday, shifting S by Sunday. Rain possible late Sunday into Monday. Patchy fog Friday night and Saturday night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.