textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

6 am update...Update for 12z aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Another rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected today, with an isolated strong storm possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Another rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected today, with an isolated strong storm possible.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Cluster of storms over nrn New England ahead of s/wv will likely continue moving south and east overnight and remain just outside of the CWA thru daybreak. Latest HRRR has the best handle on current location and shows complex dropping into srn NH with a possible shower just brushing Bangor and the MDI area after 12z.

After initial wave this morning bringing showers to southern areas several waves will be dropping thru the CWA this afternoon. Parameters for severe storms are lacking with CAPES ranging from 500-800 J/kg and marginal lapse rates. 0-6km shear values range from 15kts over the north to 30kts Downeast. PW values only increase to about 1.25 inches. May see a few gusty storms to develop throughout the afternoon but overall not a widespread wetting rain expected.

High pressure builds in for the weekend and will continue to worsen the ongoing dry/drought conditions. D0-D1 conditions are present in southern and eastern areas of the CWA. Much of the streamflows across the CWA are Below to Much Below Normal for this time of year along with Groundwater wells rapidly falling to below normal to low end normal conditions. Lack of significant widespread rainfall will result in worsening conditions in terms of the drought.

AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Today...Mainly VFR. Showers move into terminals late morning and early afternoon with potential for MVFR storms in the afternoon. Confidence remains low and have continued PROB30 groups for all terminals between 18z-23z. SW winds 5-10kts.

Tonight...Mainly VFR. Cannot rule out patchy MVFR/IFR fog in areas that received rain. WNW 5-10kts.

Friday...VFR. NW 5-15kts with gusts 20-25kts in the afternoon.

Friday night-Saturday...VFR. NW winds 10-20kts.

Saturday night-Sunday...VFR, possible MVFR in showers late Sunday. Light winds become SSW 5kts Sunday afternoon.

Sunday night-Monday...MVFR/IFR in showers, and potentially isolated afternoon thunderstorms at northern terminals. S winds 5-10 kts becoming W 5-10 kts during the day Monday.

MARINE

Winds and seas below small craft advisory criteria through the weekend on all waters. Seas around 2-3 ft with wind gusts 15 kts or less. South wind gusts increase to near 25kts over waters from 25-60NM Sunday night into Monday with seas increasing to around 4ft.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.