textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

-No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Fog likely the next two nights, especially Downeast. Fog could be dense enough to impact travel especially near the coast.

2) Rain late Wednesday into Thursday night, with higher totals Downeast.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Fog likely the next two nights, especially Downeast. Fog could be dense enough to impact travel especially near the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Skies this (Tuesday) afternoon remain mostly clear, with warm temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s. However, a southerly breeze is beginning to bring increased low level moisture. This low level moisture off the Gulf of Maine will increase in earnest tonight as the threat of fog develops. Low clouds and fog move to the Downeast coast late this afternoon/early this evening, with the low clouds gradually progressing north/inland through the night. Think that for inland areas, it will mostly be low clouds and not as much visibility-reducing fog. However, for areas near the coast, the chance of impactful fog with lower visibilities is higher.

During the day Wednesday, some fog could persist right along the coast, but everywhere else should see lifting clouds. However, the threat of fog returns again Wednesday evening, with again the greater threat being near the coast, though fog is possible anywhere. Other than patchy light drizzle, rain Downeast from an approaching system from the south appears to hold off until very late Wednesday night or Thursday morning. See more in key message 2 below.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain late Wednesday into Thursday night, with higher totals Downeast.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...Low pressure system slows over the Northeast, eventually moving east late week. It tracks through the northeast, before going into the Gulf of Maine Thursday night into Friday. Wetting rainfall expected, with higher totals along Downeast, as early as Wednesday night or Thursday. Rainfall for Downeast seems to be trending down, so around 1/2 an inch of accumulation is likely. There is some potential for a thunderstorm Thursday afternoon, but not anticipating severe conditions. Rainfall moves out by Friday morning.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Rest of Today...VFR with S winds around 10 kts.

Tonight...IFR developing from S to N, with LIFR possible at BHB/BGR. There is some uncertainty on just how low conditions get, along with the onset time of the lower conditions. TAF has low clouds moving into BHB at 23z, but there is about 2 hours of uncertainty either side of 23z. BGR should go down a few hours later. Think that IFR will briefly make it as far north as FVE, but not totally sold on that. S winds around 5 kts.

Wednesday...Starting out IFR/LIFR, but generally improving to VFR N of BGR, though it should stay MVFR for BGR or even could stay IFR at BHB. SE wind 5-10 kts.

Wednesday Night...Becoming IFR BGR/BHB, and likely becoming MVFR northern terminals. Light winds.

Thursday...Across northern areas, MVFR/IFR then VFR/MVFR with rain likely. Across Downeast areas IFR/LIFR, then MVFR/IFR with rain. Patchy fog early. Slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm regionwide. E/NE winds 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday night...VFR/MVFR early, then MVFR/IFR occasional LIFR. Rain tapering to showers, mostly Downeast. E/NE winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming light and N.

Friday...MVFR/IFR early, then VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers. Slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. Light and variable winds.

Friday night...Variable conditions with any patchy fog late. Otherwise, VFR. Variable winds around 5 knots, becoming SW.

Saturday-Saturday night...VFR. S winds 5 to 10 knots. Light and variable winds overnight.

Sunday...MVFR, with a slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. S winds at 5 to 10 kts.

MARINE

Through Wednesday night, areas of fog on the waters with seas less than 5 ft and winds 15 kts or less.

Marginal SCA conditions possible Thursday into Thursday night, with 5 ft seas over outer waters. Rain Wednesday night into Friday. Chance for some thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Fog possible Wednesday night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.