textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 6 AM update to pull back PoPs out of the north through the morning based on current radar and surface observations, though rain is expected to return to the Crown of Maine this afternoon as the warm front lifts northwards.

- Confidence continues to increase for significant rainfall at some point from Thursday night into Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain continues through Wednesday morning. Some drought relief is possible across Northern Maine.

2) Potential for significant rain at some point from Thursday night into early next week, but confidence is still fairly low in timing and amounts. However, confidence is increasing in some drought relief during this time frame.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Rain continues through Wednesday morning. Some drought relief is possible across Northern Maine.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A backdoor cold front ahead of the approaching warm front will continue to bring initial rain through the early morning. NE flow will become more variable once the warm front moves in. Additional rain amounts range of around 0.75 inches in the St John Valley, around a half inch in Aroostook and North Woods, and less than a half inch through the Central Highlands. Further south can expect less amounts with more intermittent rain.

On Wednesday: A northern stream shortwave passes to the north over the top of deep layered ridging building over New England. At the surface and low levels, a warm front lifts northeast across Maine. This results in stratiform rain, mainly across the North for Wednesday morning, possibly lingering into the afternoon across far NE Aroostook County.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Potential for significant rain at some point from Thursday night into early next week, but confidence is still fairly low in timing and amounts. However, confidence is increasing in some drought relief during this time frame.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... An active pattern establishes itself at the end of the week with multiple areas of low pressure crossing the CWA. There is increasing confidence in a significant rainfall at some point from Thursday night into early next week.

A longwave trough pushes its way into the New England region Thursday into Friday, bringing the next chance of rain throughout the forecast area. This trough may be deep enough to bring tropical moisture into the region, supporting wetting rain. This rain may be especially substantial into the Downeast region Friday into Friday night, as there is increasing consistency across global models that a coastal low may develop at that time, enhancing rainfall throughout the Downeast area.

As the longwave trough begins to shift eastward this weekend, the center of the now occluded low may linger over the CWA or just to the north, persisting precipitation chances, especially across the northern half of the forecast area this time.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Today-tonight...MVFR or lower likely at all terminals today in low ceilings and rain, becoming mainly IFR tonight. May see a brief period of VFR cigs at KCAR and KPQI in the morning, as northeast winds allow low deck to scatter out. LLWS possible late tonight. Generally light winds, shift from WNW early morning, becoming SE 10 to 15 kts at northern terminals tonight, and around 5 kts at southern terminals tonight.

Wednesday...MVFR or lower likely at northern terminals. MVFR or lower, becoming VFR, at southern terminals. LLWS possible Wednesday morning and afternoon. W/SW winds at 5-10kts, gusting to 15-20kts, during Wednesday afternoon.

Wednesday night-Thursday...VFR, until MVFR conditions develop as rain showers move in by Thursday afternoon. Light and variable winds overnight, becoming S at 5-10kts, with gusts up to 15-20kts Thursday afternoon. LLWS winds possible Thursday.

Thursday night-Saturday...MVFR or lower possible in low ceilings and rain showers. Winds S/SW at 5-10 kts Friday, becoming NE Saturday morning.

MARINE

Winds become light and variable today. Expect SE winds 5-10 kts on all waters tonight, with seas at or below 3 ft. From Wednesday through Friday, sustained winds should be 15kt or less and seas 4 ft or less over all waters. SCA conditions are possible over the coastal waters Friday night and Saturday, with seas possibly building to 5 ft on the intra coastal waters, and 8 to 10 ft on the coastal and outer waters.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.