textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 7:38PM UPDATE...00z TAF Update. See aviation section below.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Significant precipitation persisting tonight, with light wintry precipitation remaining possible over Moosehead and North Woods areas tonight. The wintry precipitation is not expected to impact travel, and flooding is not expected.

2) Widespread rain is likely again Friday/Friday night. Chance of accumulating wintry precipitation for northern areas and strong winds Friday night into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Significant precipitation persisting tonight, with light wintry precipitation remaining possible over Moosehead and North Woods areas tonight. The wintry precipitation is not expected to impact travel, and flooding is not expected.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... 1022 sfc high sitting over ern New Brunswick with ridge axis extending along the Downeast coast. Low pressure located over the Great Lakes with warm front nosing into nrn New England has resulted in chilly air remaining locked in over CWA. 18z raob from KCAR has lowest 5kft still dry with bulk of the rainfall over southern areas. Snow is falling in the Millinocket area and up into the North Woods as of 17z. Expect that airmass will saturate down over the next 1-2 hours with a cold rain likely for most of the area. The exception to this continues to be the North Woods and St. John Valley where light snow or a rain/snow mix expected to continue late this afternoon through the evening with around an inch over the highest elevations but little or no accumulation elsewhere.

Overall QPF amounts will average around 0.70-0.80 inches over the far north and around 1 inch over central areas. The Downeast coast forecast to see between 1.25-1.50 inches as triple point develops late tonight and moves along the Downeast coast. Cannot rule out nuisance and small ponding of water on area roadways with drains being clogged with leaves.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread rain is likely again Friday/Friday night. Chance of accumulating wintry precipitation for northern areas and strong winds Friday night into Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A strong low pressure system is expected to develop over the Great Lakes, then move west towards the state this weekend. This system is expected to bring widespread precip to the region Friday. As of this update, the ensemble models continue to show a split between a northern and southern track. Specifically, the GEFS seems to be the outlier with the northern track. If the southern track across the Downeast coast and Gulf of Maine happens, then we can expect a more easterly wind will limit the amount of warm air transport, allowing for more cold air advection and snow development. Nevertheless, once the system exits on Saturday, the approaching high pressure will tighten pressure gradients causing NW winds to increase. Expect gusty winds possibly up to 35 mph.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

00z TAF UPDATE... Northern terms (KFVE, KCAR, KPQI, KHUL): Tonight: MVFR to IFR conditions will prevail. Vsbys will drop to 2 to 5SM in -RA and BR, with -SN also occurring at KFVE. Cigs will lower overnight to OVC005 to OVC008. Winds will be out of the E/SE at 5 to 10 kt, with gusts up to 15 to 20 kt developing. LLWS will impact all northern terms overnight through the early morning, generally around WS020/13040KT to 14045KT.

Tomorrow: Vsbys will improve to VFR (P6SM) after 15Z as precipitation tapers to VCSH. However, cigs will largely remain in the IFR to MVFR categories, ranging from OVC005 to BKN010 throughout the day. Winds will shift to the W/NW at 5 to 10 kt, with gusts approaching 20 kt at KFVE late in the period.

Southern terms (KBGR, KBHB): Tonight: IFR to LIFR conditions are expected. The period begins with -RA, BR, and cigs ranging from BKN007 to OVC012, along with LLWS of WS020/13040KT. Conditions will crash to LIFR between 08Z and 13Z as vsbys drop to 1SM down to 1/4SM in FG, and cigs lower to OVC003 and VV002. Surface winds will generally be E/SE at 5 to 10 kt.

Tomorrow: Rapid improvement is expected after 15Z as winds shift to the W and NW at 5 to 10 kt, eventually increasing to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt by the afternoon. Vsbys will clear to VFR (P6SM). Cigs will lift to MVFR (BKN012) by 18Z, scattering out to VFR (SCT025) around 23Z.

Beyond... Wednesday night...VFR. NW winds 5-15kts, gusting 25-30kts.

Thursday...VFR. NW winds 10-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts. LLWS possible.

Thursday night...VFR. Light and variable winds.

Friday - Saturday...MVFR/IFR possible in rain, and possibly snow mixing in over the north. SE winds 5 to 15 kts Friday, increasing to 15 to 20 kts out of the NW Saturday with gusts up to 35 kts.

Sunday...VFR. WNW winds 10-20 kts.

MARINE

Small craft conditions this evening with seas ranging from 4-6 feet and winds gusting to 25-30kts. Eastern waters, specifically zones 50 and 80 will gust above 34kts, thus have upgraded to a gale warning between 00-08z. Winds diminish after 12z but seas remain elevated through the day on Wednesday. NW winds increase above SCA levels Wednesday night and gales over the outer waters late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

SCA winds and seas Wednesday night through mid-day Thursday on the coastal waters. Gales possible early Thursday on the outer waters. Below SCA conditions on all waters Thursday night. Winds and seas increase Friday, likely reaching gale criteria on all waters Friday night through Saturday. Seas reach up to 13 ft on the outer waters and 10 ft on the coastal waters Saturday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-080. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ051. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ052.