textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

-Update for 12z aviation discussion.

-Patchy river valley fog over north this morning. Also added in patchy fog for tonight into early Tuesday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A chance of showers Downeast on Tuesday. Otherwise, dry today through Wednesday.

2) Increasing heat and humidity mid to late week ahead of a cold front bringing showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A chance of showers Downeast on Tuesday. Otherwise, dry today through Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure over the region today, resulting in clear skies and dry conditions. Highs around the upper-70s to low-80s.

Low pressure on Tuesday moves through southern New England. Models indicate that this system should stay to our south, with maybe some stray showers moving along the Downeast coastline. Showers would stay over the region from generally mid-morning Tuesday to late afternoon. If precipitation shield makes it that far north, could see maybe 0.1 inches of rain accumulation.

KEY MESSAGE 2....Increasing heat and humidity mid to late week ahead of a cold front bringing showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A pre-frontal trough will be approaching late Wednesday night with southerly flow bringing in increasing humidity as dwpts increase into the 60s Thursday morning. Temps will climb into the 80s over all locations with interior Downeast approaching 90 for highs. Showers and thunderstorms likely to develop across the north on Thursday afternoon as instability will be present, with CAPES on the order of 200-800 J/kg per latest operational and ensemble guidance.

PW values increase above 1.50 inches across the north but with cold front moving through Thursday night expect these values will be pushed closer to the coast for Friday. Cold front is forecast to move into central sxns by 12z Friday with the axis of showers and thunderstorms being confined more to the Central Highlands and east and south on Friday afternoon.

AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Today...VFR. Variable winds this morning. Winds in the north stay variable during the day, and become SSE 5-10kts at Downeast terminals this afternoon.

Tonight-Tuesday...VFR. Potential for some patchy fog overnight which would reduce visibility. On Tuesday, potential for KBHB to receive some light rain showers. Light and variable winds overnight, becoming S on Tuesday at 5 to 10 knots.

Tuesday night...Mainly VFR, though may see MVFR BHB and coastal Downeast terminals in -shra and patchy fog. Light ESE winds Downeast and light S winds remainder of terminals.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR. SW winds 5-10kts.

Wednesday night...Mainly VFR, though possibly MVFR northern Aroostook terminals late. SW winds 5-10kts.

Thursday...VFR. MVFR possible Aroostook terminals in showers and possible -tsra. SSW winds 5 kts becoming WSW 5-15kts.

Thursday night-Friday...VFR/MVFR in showers and tstms. W winds 5kts becoming NW 5-15kts Friday morning.

MARINE

Conditions below SCA criteria today into Tuesday. Seas generally around 2-3ft. Potential for some fog early this morning, and tonight into Tuesday morning. E winds this morning, shifting SE by this afternoon. Winds shift E on Tuesday. Chance for rain showers Tuesday. Water temperatures remain around 50.

Winds remain below 25kts through the end of the week. Seas increase above 5ft from 25-60NM Tuesday evening before diminishing Wednesday morning. Seas remain between 2-4 feet through Thursday before becoming elevated to SCA levels out to 25NM after midnight Thursday night into Friday morning. Waters from 25-60NM will range from 5-7 feet while intracoastal zone remains between 1-3 feet.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.