textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

-Update 800PM: Model updates show more convection possible Friday afternoon, so updated the forecast.

-Increasing confidence in warm temperatures tomorrow ahead of approaching cold front.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm and dry weather is expected today, and returns next week. The next chance for showers is Friday afternoon across the north and Saturday for the rest of the area as a cold front approaches.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm and dry weather is expected today, and returns next week. The next chance for showers is Friday afternoon across the north and Saturday for the rest of the area as a cold front approaches.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A cold front will be approaching from the north today but a wave develops along it and hangs it up just to our north. Most of the clouds and associated precip appears to be anafrontal with max heating occurring before clouds move in. This may bring the warmest temps of the year in some locations, with other locations rivaling temps from May 20th of this year in the middle to upper 80s.

Dry weather expected into Friday afternoon as subsidence with ridge is the dominant feature. Weak low pressure moves in Friday afternoon and with instability present along with fairly steep low-level lapse rates cannot rule out isolated thunder, mainly towards the Central Highlands. Potential for organized storms looks slim to none and will be more of the pulse variety.

As the cold front continues to push south, showers will spread across the entire forecast area Saturday night into Sunday. With some instability in place, as some CAMs suggest at least 500 J/kg CAPE available with some limited CIN late in the day, there could be some isolated thunderstorms which develop Saturday afternoon and evening, mostly across the North Woods and down into the Central Highlands.

Warmth returns next week, with temperatures lifting at least 5 to 10 degrees above average throughout the CWA once more Tuesday into Wednesday, while the weather dries out once more.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Today-Thursday night...VFR all terminals next 24 hours. WSW 10-15kts with gust to 20kts. BHB and BGR likely to see shift to the south in the afternoon from the sea breeze. Winds diminish with sunset but maintain around 5kts from the W. LLWS possible briefly this evening at Aroostook terminals.

Friday...VFR at all terminals, with potential for a thunderstorm at west and central terminals late afternoon/early evening. Light and variable winds becoming S 5-10kt. Downeast terminals with sea breeze in the afternoon.

Friday night-Saturday...Mainly VFR at Downeast terminals except for a slight chance of showers/thunder late Saturday. MVFR/IFR conditions at Aroostook terminals in rain showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Light SE winds overnight increasing to 5 to 10 kts during the day.

Saturday...Rain showers from KGNR/KMLT/KHUL and northwards, with cigs falling to MVFR/IFR. VFR at KBGR/KBHB/coastal terminals, decreasing late. S to SE winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts.

Saturday night...MVFR/IFR with rain showers across all terminals. Winds light and variable.

Sunday...Conditions improving to VFR through the day. N winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts.

Sunday night - Tuesday...VFR across all terminals. N winds 5 to 10 kts, becoming light and variable each night.

MARINE

No headlines anticipated through Friday as winds and seas remain below small craft levels. Generally below small craft advisory conditions Friday night through Monday.

CLIMATE

Temps this afternoon look to approach record highs at two climate sites:

Site Forecast Record Caribou 8888 (1967) Houlton 8990 (1967) Bangor 8892 (1930) Millinocket 91 94 (1919)

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Beach Hazards Statement from Friday morning through Friday evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...None.