textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

-Continued uncertainty in Sunday - Monday system. Some models indicate a northern and strengthening trend.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Chance for patchy freezing drizzle this evening over Downeast into the Central Highlands with minor icing on elevated roadways.

2) Snow showers possible Friday night through Saturday night, which could potentially impact travel.

3) Potential for snow Sunday into Monday, which could cause hazardous travel conditions.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Chance for patchy freezing drizzle this evening over Downeast into the Central Highlands with minor icing on elevated roadways.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Weak occlusion will bring light snow showers to the north this evening. Low level moisture remains over the Bangor Region and Downeast into central areas while moisture dries out aloft leaving potential for freezing drizzle and/or snizzle in these areas. Most likely timeframe for this will be between 02-06z this evening before moisture evacuates the entire column. This may create icy roads and walking surfaces tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Snow showers possible Friday night through Saturday night, which could potentially impact travel.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Occluding low pressure system approaches from the west Friday night, bringing periods of snow showers into the region. Models are struggling with the exact location of the triple point low set up. The GFS continues to predict a faster and stronger low system. The general trend for precipitation is that it moves in from the SW Friday night, and gradually moves eastward. The QPF values are relatively low with this system, so generally only anticipating a few inches of snowfall. There is favorable vorticity and omega values, with the highest moisture content along Downeast region. Some travel disruptions possible, but with current trends, not anticipating significant implications.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Potential for snow Sunday into Monday, which could cause hazardous travel conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... This upcoming weekend, low pressure system approaches from the southwest, and potentially tracks along the Gulf of Maine. Still plenty of model uncertainty however, which is important because the track of these coastal low systems heavily influences snow totals throughout the region. GFS is currently showing a very strong low pressure system tracking north and moving through the waters just east of Nova Scotia, with a very tight pressure gradient. The ECMWF, however, has a much further south in the Atlantic track, which is ultimately much weaker, and has much less snowfall entering the region. Overall, GFS and Canadian models seem to be trending north and stronger. If this trend continues, there could could be decent travel disruptions, predominantly Downeast. Continue to monitor the forecast for updates.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR cigs initially will drop to MVFR later this afternoon at Aroostook terminals. FVE, CAR and PQI may experience IFR snow showers between 23z-07z tonight before improvement to MVFR/VFR by morning.

Downeast terminals have the possibility of experience MVFR conditions in -fzdz between 02 and 08z tonight though this is a low probability and have only included potential as a PROB30. Rapid improvement to VFR after 03z this morning.

VFR conditions expected through Wednesday night all terminals.

NW winds expected Wednesday afternoon with potential for gusts between 15-20kts. NW winds will become light Wednesday evening.

Thursday - Friday...Mainly VFR. NW wind, becoming NE on Friday, at 5-15 kts.

Friday night - Saturday night...Low confidence. Most likely VFR/MVFR in the north. Downeast could be IFR in snow if the system tracks north, or could be MVFR if the system misses to the south. N/NE winds at 5-10 kts.

Sunday...Generally VFR, as snow begins to move in from the S. N/NE winds at 5-10 kts.

MARINE

Seas will approach 5ft over the outer reaches of the outers waters late this evening into Wednesday morning. Winds will approach 20kts from the NW Wednesday morning into the afternoon hours. Winds will once again approach SCA levels Thursday morning over the outer waters but the near term portion should remain headline-free.

Potential for low-end Small Craft conditions over all waters early Thursday. Seas and winds go below Small Craft criteria Thursday evening, until Friday night, when Small Craft conditions are expected again. There is a chance for Gales Sunday into Monday. Light freezing spray possible early Thursday, and Saturday. Chance for snow on Friday night to Saturday, and Sunday into Monday. Winds from the NW Thursday, shifting to the NE by Friday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.