textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Removed the rest of thunder mentions over the waters - Reduced QPF over the next 6 hours. Lack of convection has significantly reduced observed precipitation so far and CAMs have been overdone. The back edge of steady precipitation is now working into the area. - Updated key message 1 description to reflect changes above

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain is expected this evening. This combined with above normal temperatures through Wednesday will continue to erode any remaining ice on northern rivers.

2) Warming temperatures through the end of the week, along with rainfall, will continue melting the remaining snow and ice in norther Maine.

3) Slight chance for some thunderstorms Downeast Thursday evening into Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain is expected this evening. This combined with above normal temperatures through Wednesday will continue to erode any remaining ice on northern rivers.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...Rain will taper to showers before ending later tonight. Rainfall through tonight is expected to be around a quarter inch, with slightly higher amounts possible over the Central Highlands. Continued unseasonably warm temperatures combined with any rainfall will continue to erode any remaining ice in the St John river basin in far northern Maine.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Warming temperatures through the end of the week, along with rainfall, will continue melting the remaining snow and ice in norther Maine.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...Temperatures above normal are expected throughout the rest of the week with daytime highs in the 50s throughout northern and eastern Maine. Overnight lows will be generally in the 40s, and creep back into the mid-to- upper 30s by the end of the week. This extended period of warming temperatures, along with some potential rain Thursday night, will continue eroding snow/ice, and northern Maine river ice.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Very slight chance for some thunderstorms Downeast Thursday evening into Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Shortwave and low pressure system moves through late Thursday into Friday morning. Moisture advection, alongside weak frontal passage, with decent lapse rates and shear, work in favor of some minor thunderstorms developing. That being said, there is a deep inversion a few hundred feet above the surface, that would cap any storm development in the region. Decided to keep a slight chance for storms in the forecast, but temperatures would need to warm up for chance of a rumble of thunder. The chance of thunder is under 15 percent.

AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Tonight...MVFR/IFR, rain this evening. Patchy fog later tonight, most likely at southern airports. Light E to SE wind.

Wednesday...MVFR, Scattered showers. E to SE wind 5 to 10 kt.

Wednesday Night...IFR with showers and patchy fog. Light SE wind.

Thursday...MVFR/IFR with rain showers. Winds from the SE around 5 kt.

Thursday night...MVFR/IFR, with rain and with a chance of patchy fog. SE wind around 5 kt shifting to the NE by daybreak.

Friday...MVFR/IFR in rain showers. NW/N winds around 5kts.

Friday night...MVFR as rain showers start to weaken. Winds from the N, shifting to the NE, at 5kts.

Saturday...Generally VFR. E, shifting to SE, winds at 5 - 10 kts.

MARINE

Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels through Wednesday night.

Conditions below Small Craft criteria through the end of the week. Rain showers Thursday into Friday. Patchy fog Thursday night. Seas generally 3ft and below Thursday into Friday. Winds from the E on Thursday, shifting to the SE Thursday evening, then shifting NE by Friday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.