textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 4 AM Update: Small Craft Advisory was allowed to expire. Additional isolated to scattered showers added across the north through today based on current radar observations and trends.

- Increasing confidence in substantial wetting rain Downeast this weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Anomalously warm temperatures today could approach daily record highs.

2) Additional rainfall expected today into the weekend, though amounts are still uncertain. The rainfall could help provide some drought relief.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Anomalously warm temperatures today could approach daily record highs.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The forecast area will remain in the warm sector of the approaching low pressure system today, with a final day of warm air advection into the CWA. High temperatures today will lift to at least 10 degrees above average, however increasing cloud cover ahead of the approaching low pressure system and decreasing wind/advection strength may lead to temperatures not quite as warm as earlier in the week, limiting but not completely eliminating the chance for reaching daily record high temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Additional rainfall expected today into the weekend, though amounts are still uncertain. The rainfall could help provide some drought relief.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A low pressure system from the Great Lakes region tracks E today. This system helps develop a coastal low system, that will move NE along the New England coast. As of this update, models seem to agree that a slow frontal system will move along the region today. Then as the low merges and intensifies, rain amounts increase across the south.

By Saturday, the low moves NE, spreading rain across the region. Models continue to agree that the low pressure system will slide along the Downeast coast. How this low pressure interacts with the upper-low to the west, however, will determine how long showers will linger in the region Sunday into Monday. GFS is showing the low going through the Bay of Fundy, continuing into Price Edward Island. The ECMWF, however, shows the low go through the Bay of Fundy, and swing into New Brunswick. As of this update, following a track bringing the system along the coast, into Bay of Fundy and Canada, looking at a chance for 2.0-3.0 inches along the immediate coast, 1.0-2.0 inches in the interior Downeast, 0.5-1 inches in the Central Highlands and southern Aroostook, and 0.1-0.5 in northern Aroostook. Some breezy winds during the day with this system as well.

AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Early this morning...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR/VLIFR. Isolated to scattered rain showers. Patchy to areas of fog. SW winds around 5 kts.

Today...Across northern areas, MVFR/IFR occasional LIFR early then VFR. Across Downeast areas, IFR/LIFR occasional VLIFR early then MVFR/IFR. Rain moving in from the south. Winds becoming light and variable.

Tonight through Saturday...Decreasing to MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, due to rain, low ceilings, and chance for fog Downeast. Winds shifting to NE then increasing to 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 to 25 kts by Saturday afternoon.

Saturday night-Sunday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, due to rain. NW winds 5 to 10 knots, with gusts 15 to 20 knots possible during the afternoon.

Sunday night-Monday...VFR/MVFR, from a chance of rain showers in the north. Snow possible late Sunday night into Monday, but chance of snow reaching terminals is low at this time. W winds 5 to 10 knots, with gusts 20 to 25 knots possible.

Monday night-Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR in the north with rain showers during the afternoon. W winds, turning SW, at 5 to 10 kts.

MARINE

Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today through Saturday. Rain and patchy fog through Sunday, with a slight chance for a thunderstorm today.

Winds and seas approach SCA criteria Sunday into Monday night. Variable wind directions Saturday night, becoming W/NW on Sunday. Chance for some rain showers and patchy fog on Monday.

CLIMATE

A final day of warm air advection into the forecast area will lead to temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal, and temperatures could approach daily record highs.

Friday, November 6 CAR: Record 72 set in 2024... Forecast 64 HUL: Record 71 set in 2022... Forecast 66 MLT: Record 72 set in 2024... Forecast 65 BGR: Record 75 set in 2024... Forecast 68

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for ANZ050-051.