textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes since last forecast.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Areas of blowing snow downwind of open and agricultural areas today will lead to extremely hazardous travel with blowing and drifting snow around the time of the morning commute.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure deepening over the Gulf of St. Lawrence is allowing pressure gradient to tighten and H9 winds to strengthen. Should see wind start to pick up here in another few hours with peak gusts either side of 12z. Expect NW winds gusting between 30-35 mph over higher terrain and in open areas. This will result in blowing and drifting snow on east-west roads. Travelers should exercise extreme caution as visibilities may be reduced suddenly in open areas and snowdrifts on roads can pull your vehicle to the side. Winds begin to lighten in the early afternoon though will still remain gusty before diminishing this evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Low pressure tracking north of the area Wednesday will bring rain south and snow mixing with or changing to rain north.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure lifting north along an approaching frontal boundary on Wednesday will track across Quebec pulling warmer and moist air north. This will bring some light rain over southern areas and intermittent light snow snow mixing with or changing to rain across the north. Precipitation will be mainly a function of convergence ahead of an approaching cold front. Precipitation will be light, generally amounting to a tenth of an inch or less liquid equivalent.

KEY MESSAGE 3... A cold front crossing the area Thursday morning will bring falling temperatures possibly making wet roads icy. Some snow is likely as a low tracks northeast along the front.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... A cold front along the leading edge of Arctic air will press across the area early Thursday morning bringing falling temperatures. The temperatures across the north may drop as much as 7 degrees in an hour as the leading edge of cold air presses into the region. Precipitation in the form of wet snow or rain north and rain south will change to all snow. The continuation of precipitation as the cold front presses in will likely keep the roads wet as the temperatures abruptly fall bringing a risk of icy surfaces. In addition, a secondary area of low pressure forming just south of the front offshore may slow the front as it nears southern areas and possibly prolong snowfall across the area Thursday. Additional snowfall will be produced by frontal convergence, cold air undercutting the warmer air aloft, and upper air lift out ahead of a deep upper trough of low pressure approaching the Mid-Atlantic region.

KEY MESSAGE 4... A new area of low pressure developing offshore on Friday may bring snow to parts of the area with the best chance for snow across the south.

KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION... A vigorous upper trough digging across the Carolinas Thursday night will develop a new area of low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast. This low has the potential to bring snow to parts of the area, especially across the south, on Friday. Low pressure will quickly lift northeast to a position off Nova Scotia by late Friday. There remains uncertainties in the track. A path further offshore would bring little or no snow or limit snow to the Downeast region while a track closer in to the coast, or a larger more expansive storm, could spread snow well inland. This looks like whatever the track, it should be a cold system with all snow across the area. Any snow should taper off Friday night as the low quickly moves away.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

IFR at FVE in snow thru 09z this morning with MVFR conditions at CAR and PQI in low cigs early. VFR at HUL and Downeast terminals next 24 hours with unrestricted vsbys at HUL in BLSN between 10z and 18z today. Northern Aroostook terminals will see BLSN and uncertain how this will play into vsbys at airports but for now have gone with 6SM.

NW winds 10-20kts with gusts to 30kts either side of 12z this morning. Winds diminish by evening. LLWS at BGR and BHB from 08z-13z this morning at FL020 from 29040kt.

Tuesday...expect VFR over Downeast terminals with potential MVFR cigs north during the day. Winds will be from the southwest 5-15kts on Tuesday

Tuesday night...MVFR dropping to IFR, and possibly LIFR late. S wind.

Wednesday...IFR to LIFR. S wind.

Wednesday night...IFR. Light and variable wind becoming N.

Thursday...IFR south. IFR improving to MVFR and possibly VFR north. N wind.

Thursday night...VFR north. IFR improving to MVFR and possibly dropping back to IFR south. NE wind.

Friday...IFR south. MVFR north. N wind becoming NW.

MARINE

West winds will increase to gale force early this morning and remain into the mid-morning hours over the intracoastal and early afternoon over the outer waters. Gale warning will need to be converted to SCA through tonight for both winds and seas. Headlines not expected on Tuesday.

A gale may be needed late Tuesday night into Wednesday for SW winds gusting up to 35 kt. Winds should drop to SCA Wednesday and below SCA Wednesday night. Winds may increase to SCA Thursday then likely a gale Thursday night into Friday for N winds gusting up to 40 kt.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM EST early this morning for MEZ001>004. MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050>052.