textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

-Continued chance for rain and thunderstorms on Friday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain with isolated thunderstorms through tonight.

2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms late this week. Some severe storms are possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain with isolated thunderstorms through tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Rain showers will continue through this evening. With plenty of available moisture to work with, moderate rainfall is likely within the heavier showers. A cold front will push through later tonight, potentially bringing an extra gust of winds along with another chance for lightning along the front. Wind gusts tonight through the day tomorrow may peak around 25 to 30 mph. Continued winds will lessen any chance for fog development, though sheltered valleys could still see some fog early Tuesday and Wednesday mornings.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered showers and thunderstorms late this week. Some severe storms are possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure system approaches from the northwest, moving into New Brunswick. Associated cold front swings through on Friday, through Maine by Saturday morning. There is some instability ahead of the cold front. GFS is currently showing around 1,500 J/kg of CAPE, good low level lapse rates (6-7C/km in the north, and 8-9C/km Downeast), and plenty of precipitation. Soundings are moist, with classic long and skinny CAPE. PWAT values around 1.8 possible, which is around the 90th percentile for Caribou, approaching the 1.9 daytime maximum value. Continue to monitor for updates, as the regional and CAMs gradually begin to pick up on the system.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Tonight...IFR tonight, gradually improving towards VFR late. Rain tapering to showers. An isolated thunderstorm possible early. South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots, becoming southwest/west. Southwesterly low level wind shear early KHUL, KBGR and KBHB.

Tuesday - Tuesday night...VFR across terminals. A slight chance of morning showers at northern terminals. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots. Early westerly LLWS across all terminals north of the coast.

Wednesday...VFR. SW winds at 5 - 10 kts. Potential for wind gusts 15 - 20 kts in the afternoon.

Wednesday night - Thursday...VFR except for possible MVFR in rain showers at southern terminals early Wednesday night, and patchy fog later in the night. Light S/SW winds, around 5 - 10 kts during the day.

Thursday night - Friday night...VFR most of the night, becoming MVFR/IFR Friday morning in scattered rain showers and isolated T-storms. Light winds overnight, becoming W/SW winds 5 - 10 kts.

Saturday...Generally VFR. W winds at 5 - 10 kts.

MARINE

The Small Craft Advisory for the intra-coastal and coastal waters remains through 8 PM Tuesday. Rain through early tonight, then tapering to showers later tonight. Isolated thunderstorms also possible today through early tonight. Areas of fog today into tonight, then patchy fog early Tuesday.

Seas below SCA criteria Wednesday into the weekend, with 3-4ft seas on all waters through Friday. There is a potential for fog and some rain showers Wednesday night. Another chance for thunderstorms is possible Friday. S winds shifting SW Thursday and Friday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050>052.