textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

745 pm update...Update for 00z aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Some could be severe on Sunday. Stronger showers and storms may produce locally heavy rainfall, with the potential for localized flooding.

2) Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Some could be severe on Sunday. Stronger showers and storms may produce locally heavy rainfall, with the potential for localized flooding.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Shortwaves will continue to cross the area, bringing scattered showers this evening throughout the forecast area. Showers may be slow moving with little to no steering flow, and as PWATs sit around 1.5 to 2.0 inches, heavy rain and localized flooding is possible.

Patchy fog could develop tonight, particularly in any areas which receive rain this evening to saturate the lowest levels.

A cold front will cross the area late on Sunday, and could bring synoptic level forcing that kicks off some stronger thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center does have a marginal outlook for severe storms along our eastern border, as 30 kts of shear could help sustain thunderstorms that develop. The greatest threat out of these storms will be that of continued heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Rounds of shortwaves move through the north next week, bringing a chance for rain showers and some thunderstorms. Thunder possible in the north on Monday, area wide Monday night, and in the north on Tuesday. More showers are possible late week. Looking at potential for 500-1,000J/kg of surface CAPE, some shear maybe 30-40kts, but mid-level lapse rates are weak. Cold front associated with a shortwave moving through on Tuesday seems to be weak as well. PWATs generally in the 1.25-1.5 range. Overall, environment does not look too impressive for strong thunderstorms, so could just be some brief isolated storms below severe criteria.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Tonight...Trending towards MVFR/IFR overnight in low cigs inland and possible fog at KBHB/KBGR and coastal terminals. Cannot rule out brief showers at terminals this evening. Winds light and variable.

Sunday...Return to VFR during the day, aside from dips to MVFR/IFR cigs in showers and scattered thunderstorms. SW winds 5 to 10 kts.

Sunday night...VFR. Winds light and variable.

Monday: MVFR possible in any afternoon storms, otherwise VFR. W/SW winds, gusting to 15-20 kt possible.

Monday night-Tuesday: MVFR/IFR in showers late Monday night and Tuesday afternoon. Light winds overnight, becoming W 5-10 kt Tuesday afternoon.

Tuesday night-Wednesday: VFR overnight. MVFR possible in any showers Wednesday afternoon. Winds W at 5-10 kt.

Wednesday night-Thursday: VFR overnight. MVFR possible in any showers Thursday afternoon. Winds W/SW at 5-10kts.

MARINE

Winds on the waters out to 60 nm should be 15 kt or less and seas 3 ft or less through Wednesday.

Patchy fog reducing visibility to 1nm or less is possible through this morning.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening. There is also the potential for some showers on Monday into Tuesday. Another chance for storms on Thursday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.