textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Decreased thunder chances for today.

- Increasing chances for apparent temperatures near heat advisory levels Tuesday and Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Wildfire smoke might be able to mix down to the surface over the north today.

2) Rain across the area this morning, with some thunder chances Downeast, moving out in the afternoon.

3) Very warm to hot high temperatures possible Monday- Wednesday. Highest apparent temperatures Tuesday for all but Downeast. Downeast, especially coastal areas should see the highest apparent temperatures Wednesday.

4) There is a chance for strong thunderstorms area wide on Tuesday, and mainly across coastal Downeast Maine on Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Wildfire smoke might be able to mix down to the surface over the north today.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A cold front will cross the region Friday morning. Mixing in the wake of the cold front could allow smoke to reach the surface across northern areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain across the area this morning, with some thunder chances Downeast, moving out in the afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A stalled boundary exists across the area this morning, bringing rain and showers. An isolated rumble of thunder is possible in Downeast areas early this morning. Rain should clear the area this afternoon as the upper level trough to the north moves east. With and behind the showers, some fog is possible. Rainfall totals should be light, less than 0.5 except for some isolated higher values in stronger showers.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Very warm to hot high temperatures possible Monday- Wednesday. Highest apparent temperatures Tuesday for all but coastal Downeast. Coastal Downeast should see the highest apparent temperatures Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... A northern stream trough passes Monday, allowing for northern stream ridging to cross the area Monday night. This should be followed by a closed low tracking slowly east from Central Quebec Tuesday to Newfoundland and Labrador by late Wednesday. At the surface, a warm front approaches on Monday, then crosses the area Monday night, followed by another warm front approaching on Tuesday then crossing the area Tuesday night. A cold front then crosses the area on Wednesday.

The result should be highs mainly in the 80s on Monday, cooler near the immediate coast, highs from the mid 80 to lower 90s on Tuesday, once again cooler near the coast, then from the upper 70s across far NW areas Wednesday to around 90 across most of Downeast Maine (once again cooler near the immediate coast). During this same time frame dewpoints increase from the mid 50s to around 60 on Monday, to the lower to mid 60s on Tuesday, then should range from the mid 50s to mid 60s on Wednesday, with lower values behind the cold front. This should result in apparent temperatures from the upper 70s to mid 80s Monday, from the upper 80s to mid 90s on Tuesday, and from the upper 70s to mid 90s on Wednesday, with the highest values across coastal Downeast.

If the forecast holds, this could have the Bangor/Penobscot Region and most of Downeast Maine near the heat advisory levels (Heat Index 95-99 for at least 2 hours or 100-104 for any duration - in this case the former criteria applies) on Tuesday, with coastal Downeast possibly seeing a second day of apparent temperatures around 95 Wednesday.

In addition there is also the risk for isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly across the North on Monday and Monday evening, scattered thunderstorms across the North Tuesday, then scattered to likely showers, with possibly a rumble of thunder CWA wide Tuesday evening. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are also possible on Wednesday. For now it appears that the highest values of CAPE and shear should be on Tuesday, but the best upper jet dynamics are on Wednesday over coastal Downeast. So overall the best chance for any stronger thunderstorms should be on Tuesday, with a non-zero risk for stronger storms over mainly coastal Downeast Maine Wednesday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 4... There is a chance for strong thunderstorms area wide on Tuesday, and mainly across coastal Downeast Maine on Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION... With the region solidly in the warm sector on Tuesday and with Downeast Maine possibly in the warm sector Wednesday afternoon, there is also a risk for scattered thunderstorms across the North Tuesday, then scattered to likely showers, with possibly a rumble of thunder CWA wide Tuesday evening. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are also possible on Wednesday. For now it appears that the highest values of CAPE (1000-2000 J/kg) and shear (60-70 KT) should be on Tuesday, but the best upper jet dynamics are on Wednesday over Downeast Maine. So overall the best chance for any stronger thunderstorms should be on Tuesday, with a non- zero risk for stronger storms over mainly Downeast Maine Wednesday afternoon.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 18z today: MVFR in showers. NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Fog possible at BHB early.

Friday afternoon: VFR. Northwest/north winds 5 to 10 knots.

Friday night: Variable conditions with any patchy fog late. Otherwise, VFR. Northwest/north winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday-Sunday night: VFR. NW winds G15KT possible Saturday afternoon.

Monday-Monday Night: VFR, except for a brief period of MVFR possible in any showers/thunderstorms at northern terminals Monday afternoon/evening. SW winds G15-20KT possible Monday afternoon. LLWS possible Monday night.

Tuesday: VFR, except for a period of MVFR or lower is possible in any stronger convection. The best chance for a strong thunderstorm is at northern terminals. SW winds G15-20KT possible Tuesday afternoon.

MARINE

Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels through Friday night. Isolated/scattered showers through early morning. Patchy fog.

A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters should see winds out to 60NM of 15 kt or less and seas of 3 ft or less Saturday- Monday. The intra-coastal waters should see sub-SCA conditions Monday night and Tuesday. Gust to 25-30 kt are possible over the coastal ocean and outer waters Monday night, bring seas to around 5 ft over the coastal ocean waters and to 6-7 ft over the outer waters.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.