textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

-Increased winds on Sunday, given indicated pressure gradient over the state.

-Decreased snow amounts, and increased sleet/freezing rain amounts for Sunday system, based on sounding profiles.

-Issued Gale Warning for outer-waters late tonight through Sunday evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Slick roads this morning as temperatures fall below freezing.

2) Another low pressure system moves through region tonight into Sunday, bringing potential for another round of mixed precipitation, that could impact Easter travel.

3) Light snow possible Downeast Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Slick roads this morning as temperatures fall below freezing.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Slick roads are expected this morning as temperatures fell below freezing after frontal passage. General area of concern is generally areas in Aroostook, northern Somerset, northern Piscataquis, and northern Penobscot counties. Any rain that fell last night on untreated surfaces could freeze up, resulting in black ice and slick spots for morning commute. Exercise caution.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another low pressure system moves through region tonight into Sunday, bringing potential for another round of mixed precipitation, that could impact Easter travel.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Yet another Great Lakes low pressure system moves to the northwest tonight through Sunday. Precipitation begins to move in late tonight, moving from west to east. Similar to this last storm, surface temperatures stay below, or right around, freezing during the night. Mid-level warm air advection provides a relatively deep warm nose in atmospheric soundings. Confined snow to the north based on these profiles, with snow eroding out of the forecast region by daybreak. Sleet follows snow, starting in a corridor from northern Somerset down to Washington county early Sunday, slowly expanding northeast as warm air aloft expands. Behind the sleet is a period of freezing rain, as temperatures continue to rise. Then plain rain behind freezing rain. This transition to plain rain occurs Sunday morning for interior Downeast and Bangor region, mid-morning for the Central Highlands and Upper Penobscot Valley, and early afternoon for the far north.

Event wide, snowfall around 1-3 inches in northern Maine. There is a chance for up to 1 inch of sleet in northern Aroostook. Around 0.1 to 0.5 inch of sleet in the Central Highlands, Upper Penobscot Valley, and southern Aroostook regions. Around 0.05 inches of ice possible in northern Maine. 0.1 to 0.2 inch of ice possible in the Central Highlands, Upper Penobscot Valley, and southern Aroostook regions. T 0.05 inch of ice possible as far down as the Downeast coast.

Greatest uncertainty currently is in precip type amounts. Soundings with a good warm nose are consistent across the board. Continued confidence in snow being less prevalent in this storm, compared to previous storm. Sleet and freezing rain are expected, but will heavily depend on low-level temperatures and speed of the front. Went with less snow, and more sleet/freezing rain with this package. Bumped up winds as well, with gusty conditions expected throughout the day on Sunday.

Roads are expected to be slick for the Easter morning drive on Sunday. Please exercise caution and plan accordingly around the weather.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Light snow possible Downeast Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... A weak system moving east through the Northeast could graze southern portions of our area with light precipitation on Tuesday. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty. The majority of solutions favor the precipitation staying to our south or being too light to amount to anything, but a significant minority (about 40 percent of solutions) bring measurable precipitation to primarily Downeast. If this happens, it most likely would fall as snow or a rain/snow mix. Can't rule out 1-3 inches of snow Downeast with this storm on the high end, though odds at this point favor little or no snow.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Today...VFR. MVFR ceilings possible at northern terminals during the morning. N winds 5-10kt shifting E in the early evening. Gusts to 25 kt possible at southern terminals.

Tonight...IFR/LIFR for SN/PL/FZRA at northern terminals, and RA at southern terminals. SE winds 5-15kt. Gusts to 30 kt possible. LLWS at all terminals early Sunday.

Sunday...IFR/LIFR in the morning for SN/PL/FZRA at northern terminals, and RA at southern terminals. Becoming MVFR/IFR with RA at all terminals by afternoon. S-SE winds 5-15kt. Winds shift to the SW by evening. LLWS at all terminals possible.

Sunday night: MVFR and snow showers possible at northern terminals, otherwise VFR. W winds 5 to 10 kts gusting to 20 kts.

Monday: Low VFR ceilings, with a chance of MVFR at northern terminals. WNW winds around 15 kts with gusts to 25 to 30 kts.

Monday night: VFR, with a chance of MVFR at northern terminals in the evening. NW winds 5 to 15 kts.

Tuesday: Periods of MVFR or IFR possible Downeast terminals with possible -SN, but low confidence. NW winds around 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts.

Wednesday: VFR strongly favored with a slight chance of MVFR at northern terminals. W winds around 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts.

MARINE

Small Craft criteria over the outer waters through this afternoon, and for the intra-coatals through this morning. Gale Warning in effect for outer waters starting late tonight, going through Sunday evening. Rain starts tonight and goes through the day Sunday. W winds, shifting to the N/NE by this morning. Winds shift tot the E by tonight, and shift S/SW by Sunday.

Advisory level winds and seas will continue into Monday evening, before conditions improve to sub advisory levels later Monday night through Tuesday. Winds increase again Tuesday night with a frontal passage. At least advisory level winds are likely, with gales also possible (25 percent chance). Next shot at gales is Thursday, with about a 60 percent chance of southerly gales.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EDT Sunday for MEZ001-002. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Sunday for MEZ003>006-010-011-031-032. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ050- 051. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ052.