textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 8:24AM UPDATE...Have cancelled the Gale Warning for the Waters 25-60nm offshore. Winds are gusting 25-30 kt but with a weaker low pressure tracking further out from the Gulf of Maine waters we no longer expect Gale Force wind gusts. A lot of Virga present on KCBW radar associated with the low and the 12z RAOB from CAR and GYX confirm the dry boundary layer leading to it. Overall very little if any precipitation has fallen. Additionally, lower stratus has developed off the Notre-Dame mountains of Quebec/New Brunswick and pushed south into northeast portions of The County. This is leading to overcast skies and with lower November sun angle it will be a challenge to mix these out today with light winds. Expecting prolonged cloudy skies across the CWA today. Overall, made some tweaks to the sky forecast today to account for these developing conditions.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Minimal impacts Downeast from the coastal storm today.

2) There is the potential for snow showers across the North Saturday through Sunday, with accumulation possible across higher elevations.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Minimal impacts Downeast from the coastal storm today.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Models are in general agreement that low pressure will track south of the Gulf of Maine to east of Nova Scotia today. The northern edge of the precipitation shield with the low will clip the Downeast region this morning with a chance of sow and rain. Little, or no, additional snow accumulation is expected. Any precipitation should end later this morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...There is the potential for snow showers across the North Saturday through Sunday, with accumulation possible across higher elevations.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... An upper low will move south toward the region tonight, then cross the forecast area Saturday. The low will bring isolated/scattered snow and rain showers to mostly northern/northwest portions of the forecast area along with the west-central highlands. The snow showers could possibly produce light accumulations, generally less than an inch, across mostly higher terrain areas.

The closed upper level low exits to the south Saturday night, followed by an upper level shortwave passing from south to north during the day on Sunday in its wake. These two systems could bring some isolated to scattered snow showers to mainly the North Saturday night and Sunday (with rain or snow showers Sunday afternoon across portions of Eastern Aroostook, and Northern Penobscot). While any accumulations should generally be at most a few tenths of an inch, any stronger snow showers on Sunday could produce a quick inch or two across elevations above 1000 ft. The best chance for this would be for areas along and west of Route 11 north of Ashland and across Central and Northern Piscataquis County.

AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Today...Across northern area, VFR/MVFR ceilings. Across Downeast areas, VFR/MVFR occasional IFR with a chance of snow and rain early. Otherwise, VFR. North/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Tonight...Across northern areas, variable conditions with any snow showers. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR ceilings. Across Downeast areas, generally VFR though MVFR ceilings are also possible late. North/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday...Variable conditions with any snow and rain showers across mostly northern/northwestern areas. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR. North/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots.

Saturday night-Sunday...MVFR possible at northern terminals in any snow showers, otherwise VFR. NW winds G15-25KT possible Sunday afternoon.

Sunday night-Tuesday: VFR. NW winds G15-20KT possible during the day Monday and W winds G15-20KT possible during the day Tuesday.

MARINE

A Gale Warning remains in effect through 1 PM today for the outermost waters. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the remainder of the waters through 10 PM tonight. Winds/seas then below small craft advisory levels overnight through Saturday. Rain this morning.

The coastal waters should see sub-SCA conditions Saturday night. SCA conditions are possible on the coastal ocean waters Sunday and Sunday night, with sub-SCA conditions likely on the intra- coastal waters. The coastal waters should see sustained winds of 15 kt or less and seas 4 ft or less Monday-Tuesday.

For the outer waters, sustained winds of 20 kt or less and seas of 5 ft or less are forecast Saturday night-Tuesday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ050>052.