textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Updated aviation section to reflect 00Z TAFs

Previous - Slower exit of clouds late this afternoon and early evening in Northern Maine - Added patchy valley fog to the forecast for tonight - Trending wetter for Saturday night and Sunday

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain Saturday afternoon into Sunday, heaviest in far Eastern Maine late Saturday night into Sunday.

2) Potential for another soaking rain event through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain Saturday afternoon into Sunday, heaviest in far Eastern Maine late Saturday night into Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure over the area gives us a brief dry period tonight through midday Saturday. However, then rain chances increase. Shower chances increase Saturday afternoon from southwest to northeast as a result of a weak upper level shortwave trough rotating around a broader upper level low pressure well to our northwest. This shower activity Saturday afternoon into early evening does not look too significant, with totals mainly less than one quarter inch.

Later Saturday night into Sunday, a strong and rapidly strengthening low pressure system moves northeast, skirting the southern edge of the Gulf of Maine and heading toward Halifax. Models have trended significantly northwest with the track of this system, and we have adjusted the forecast accordingly. It is looking rainy roughly east of a Clayton Lake to Greenville line from late Saturday night into all day Sunday. Rain totals are still somewhat uncertain, but indications are for amounts approaching an inch in eastern Washington County, with totals lessening as you head north/west to very little along the Quebec border of the North Woods. This will be a cold rain with temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s where rain is occurring, making for a very raw late Saturday night/Sunday but providing additional drought relief. Highest elevations such as Mount Katahdin could see some light snow accumulations with this precipitation as well.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Potential for another soaking rain event through the middle of next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A brief pause in precipitation is expected Monday into Tuesday, while temperatures rebound some and potentially warm into the mid to upper 60s across the forecast area. By late Tuesday into Tuesday night, a boundary will be approaching from the west that will be slow to cross the area Tuesday night through Thursday, and the low pressure influence could linger even longer should another low pressure center approach the area along this stalled boundary. Supplied by moisture out of the Gulf, this boundary could result in substantial, persistent, stratiform soaking rain over the area that could make a dent in the drought for the area.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Tonight...Improvement to VFR everywhere by about 4z tonight. Cannot rule out localized valley fog late tonight, but not enough confidence to put into TAFs. Light wind.

Saturday...Remaining VFR through about 15z Saturday, then potential MVFR cigs BHB/BGR from 15z onward, and potential MVFR cigs at northern terminals after 18z, with scattered rain showers as well. S wind 5-10 kts.

Saturday Night...MVFR/IFR with rain likely especially after 6z. Light wind.

Sunday - Sunday night...VFR/MVFR cigs with a chance for rain, particularly at BHB/BGR. NW winds 5 to 10 kts gusting to 20 kts, shifting W overnight.

Monday - Tuesday...VFR across all terminals, with cigs potentially decreasing to MVFR from west to east as rain showers enter the area. SW winds 5 to 10 kts. Gusts increasing to 25 to 30 kts by Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday...Decreasing conditions to IFR/LIFR in steady rain across all terminals. S winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts.

MARINE

Conditions below small craft through Saturday night with seas less than 5 ft.

Conditions will remain below advisory levels into early next week with gusts below 25 kts and seas 2 to 4 ft. Gusts could approach gales briefly on the outer waters Sunday with the passing of a low pressure system before decreasing once more Sunday night. Conditions will begin to deteriorate once more into the day on Monday with seas approaching 4 to 6 ft and wind gusts approaching gales on the outer waters beyond 25 nm, and gusts over small craft advisory levels for the coastal waters.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.