textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Intermittent light rain mixed with snow, mainly north of Bangor, through Wednesday. Snow accumulations will be extremely minor, if any at all.

2) Potential for coastal storm development later in the week. However, significant uncertainty still exists.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Intermittent light rain mixed with snow, mainly north of Bangor, through Wednesday. Snow accumulations will be extremely minor, if any at all.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... As of 1pm, a band of light precipitation is moving east through the North Woods with light rain/snow mixed. This band of precipitation will continue to move east through Northern Maine this afternoon, with about two hours of light precipitation at any one spot. Total precipitation will be just a few hundredths of an inch with this, any snow accumulation is not expected as temperatures are just a bit too warm.

Another round of precipitation is expected this evening, primarily from roughly Greenville east to Millinocket and east to around Houlton. Total liquid equivalent precipitation from this should be 0.10 to 0.20 inches. Temperatures will be borderline for rain vs snow, and it is a tough call on precipitation type. That said, think that even if snow does fall, any accumulations will be extremely light (less than 0.5 inch snow). The exception is higher terrain, where an inch or two of snow accumulation is likely. Road travel impacts are not expected.

Probably a lull in precipitation later tonight, but during the day Wednesday there should be isolated to scattered shower activity from daytime instability in NW flow aloft. Again, generally think temperatures will be just a bit too warm for any snow accumulation. Liquid equivalent totals during the day Wednesday should be less than 0.10 inch except in the few heaviest showers. Shower are possible pretty much anywhere, but will be a bit more favored over the North Woods and southeast to the general Millinocket/Sherman/Houlton region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Potential for coastal storm development later in the week. However, significant uncertainty still exists.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure will develop along the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday. This initial low will then track northeast Thursday night into the weekend. A second low should then develop Friday and also track northeast into Saturday. However, significant uncertainty regarding the tracks of these lows still exists. Potential impacts from these lows, including precipitation types/amounts, Thursday night into the weekend will be dependent on the eventual tracks of these lows. Current (13z 11/10/26) NBM snow probabilities limit snowfall totals to Piscataquis County and just north west of Bangor, with 60-80% chance of at least 1 inch of snow Friday into Saturday. Probability of 0.5 inch expands in area north, east, and south with the same probabilities for the same time period as above. Mean ensemble guidance indicates similar probabilities for these areas. Individual ensemble members and deterministic guidance, however, still shows wide variation with the track of the low off the coast. Some members have the center of the low closer to the coast, bringing more significant snowfall to parts of the area. Another cluster of members have the low well offshore, limiting any precipitation for the area. The exact track of the system will determine how much, if any, cold air moves further south to keep precipitation as snow. Current precipitation totals are around 0.5 inches of liquid for the coast, with the exact track determining exact totals.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Rest of Today...Aroostook terminals going down from VFR to MVFR in light rain and snow by 20-21z. Expect about two hours of light precipitation, but MVFR cigs should persist afterwards. BGR/BHB should remain VFR this afternoon. W winds 10 kts.

Tonight...MVFR at Aroostook terminals with a chance of IFR, mainly FVE. VFR BGR/BHB with a chance of MVFR. Light and variable winds.

Wednesday...VFR south, VFR/MVFR north. Isolated to scattered rain/snow showers, mainly Aroostook terminals. NW winds 10-15 kts.

Wednesday night through Thursday...VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday...VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday through Thursday night...VFR north. VFR/MVFR Downeast with a slight chance of snow late. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north/northeast.

Friday through Sunday...Significant uncertainty with conditions dependent on the eventual tracks of two lows off the coast.

MARINE

Small craft advisory tonight into Wednesday morning for NW winds. Winds diminishing Wednesday afternoon/evening.

Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Wednesday night/Thursday. Small craft advisory conditions then develop Thursday night. Conditions Friday into the weekend will then be dependent on the eventual strength/track of two lows for which significant uncertainty still exists.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ050-051.