textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Rainfall totals have trended downward but confidence still low.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A Noreaster will impact at least Downeast Maine this weekend into Monday, bringing gusty winds, high surf, and periods of rain.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A Noreaster will impact at least Downeast Maine this weekend into Monday, bringing gusty winds, high surf, and periods of rain.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... We are still expecting a strong Noreaster impacting our area from today through the weekend and into Monday. However, we will be on the far northern fringe of the Noreaster with the center staying south of Massachusetts through Sunday, and impacts this far north through Sunday will be much less than areas further south. Here is what to expect for the various components of the storm:

Periods of Rain...Rain chances will be far greater Downeast than northern areas for the storm, with rain developing on Saturday, and persisting off and on through Monday. There is still substantial uncertainty on the northern extent of the rain. Most likely Downeast up to Bangor will see periods of rain through the weekend, but totals could be anywhere from one quarter inch to one and a half inches, due to the uncertainty of how far north the rain will extent, as there is still a lot of uncertainty. Even with the higher totals, we would not expect flooding. Sunday night and Monday, a much weaker version of the Noreaster finally lifts north and tracks into the Gulf of Maine, at which point rain chances finally increase over the whole area. That said, not expecting anything heavy.

Gusty Winds...Winds from the northeast will increase Friday night into Saturday, remain gusty through Sunday, then decrease a bit into Monday. Winds will be stronger the further south you go, with gusts topping out around only 20 mph in Northern Maine this weekend, but 25-35 mph Bangor and Downeast. We don't anticipate impacts from the wind other than maybe a very isolated outage Downeast.

High Surf...Seas near the shore will be fairly rough with 5-9 ft seas, much of it as a longer period south/southeast swell. We are not expecting impactful coastal flooding, though waves breaking on the rocks will be hazardous for any onlookers. Conditions should be a bit more hazardous for coastal Hancock than coastal Washington. Conditions slowly ease Sunday night into Monday.

AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

This Morning Before 12z...SKC/FEW-SCT250 cigs. Light and variable winds.

Today...VFR with FEW-SCT250 cigs. N-NE winds 5-10kt north and NE 5-15kt southern terms.

Tonight...VFR. High cigs. N-NNE 5kt at northern terms. For BHB/BGR expecting NE-ENE winds 5-10kt with gusts up to 20kt.

Saturday - Monday...VFR north, except MVFR possible Monday. VFR/MVFR Downeast with rain likely at times. Across northern areas, N/NE winds 5 to 15 knots. Across Downeast areas, N/NE winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to around 20-35 knots Saturday/Sunday, with winds diminishing a bit Sunday night and Monday back to 10 to 15 knots.

MARINE

Northeast winds increase to Gales tonight, with winds peaking around 45 knots in the outer waters and around 40 knots in the coastal waters by Saturday morning. A Gale Warning is now in effect from 2AM on Friday in outer waters and from 11AM in coastal waters and will persist through at least 8PM Sunday night. Gales remain possible in the intracoastal waters, where a Small Craft Advisory is in effect. Peak wave heights in the outer waters will be around 11ft to 16ft, and around 7ft to 12ft in the coastal waters. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for coastal Hancock County where large waves could pose a rip current risk and impact people on rock outcrops.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...High Surf Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Sunday for MEZ029. MARINE...Gale Warning from 2 AM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ050- 051. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ052. Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ080-081.