textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Added fog especially to Downeast for Wednesday night and Thursday night.

-Confined thunder to the west on Friday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Very warm temperatures through Wednesday, with a slight cooling trend Thursday and Friday.

2) Shower chances return Wednesday evening and persist into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Very warm temperatures through Wednesday, with a slight cooling trend Thursday and Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Very warm temperatures are present over the afternoon today and again Wednesday. These readings are not quite at records, but still rather uncomfortable for most people, with generally mid to upper 80s. Dewpoints are still low enough today to where heat indices are not any warmer than the actual temperatures. Dewpoints creep up a bit on Wednesday, but are still not too bad. Heat impacts today and Wednesday will be mostly for the more vulnerable populations.

Heading into Thursday and Friday, temperatures decrease more Downeast than in the north. For the north, readings drop into the low to mid 80s for highs, while Downeast, they fall to the low 70s to low 80s, coolest near the coast thanks to a marine layer and slight onshore flow. That said, dewpoints will be creeping up to near 60 and the air will have a bit of a muggy feel.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Shower chances return Wednesday evening and persist into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... The dry period of weather should persist over Northeastern Maine likely until late Friday. However, shower chances return for southern portions of the area from the Central Highlands south to coastal Downeast Wednesday evening. We aren't expecting anything too significant, with just a chance of showers and possibly a thunderstorm.

With the airmass beginning to moisten with increasing onshore flow, we should see a marine layer with possible fog setting up starting Wednesday night for Downeast up to around Lincoln.

Shortwave moves over the region Thursday, bringing some moisture and instability into the region. Decent low-level lapse rates, but southeast flow provides a marine layer over eastern Maine, stabilizing the surface. There is some mid-level instability, but mid-level lapse rates are very poor. Without strong forcing, not expecting too much in terms of storm development. Could be a few thunderstorms in the west, such as northern Somerset and western Piscataquis, since the marine layer will be confined to the windward side of the mountains.

On Friday weak ridging as a low-pressure moves in from the west, with surface southeast flow, poor mid-level lapse rates, and some mid-level instability. Main difference is an approaching cold front from the west late evening into overnight. Kept any storm development confined to western Aroostook, northern Somerset and western Piscatquis.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Rest of this Afternoon...High confidence in VFR. Generally W wind around 10 kts with gusts 15-20 kts.

Tonight...VFR with light wind.

Wednesday...VFR with S wind increasing to 5-10 kts in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night...VFR north, but IFR cigs likely developing (75 percent chance) for BHB and BGR late in the night. Light S wind.

Thursday-Thursday Night...VFR, with MVFR or lower possible due to rain showers at KBGR early. Light S/SE winds, becoming variable overnight. Chance for overnight fog at KBGR and KBHB.

Friday...Mainly VFR, with a slight chance of a showers at KFVE/KCAR/KPQI. SE winds 5-10 kts.

Friday Night-Saturday...MVFR or lower possible. Slight chance for thunder in northern Maine Friday night into Saturday. S winds shifting SW during the day, with 15-20kt gusts possible.

Saturday Night-Sunday...VFR, becoming MVFR Sunday. SW winds becoming W winds by Sunday. 5-10 kts.

MARINE

Conditions below small craft levels, with fog possible starting later Wednesday night. Another round of fog possible Thursday night. Potential for some rain showers over the waters by Saturday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.