textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Added gusty winds to showers/storms for Thursday - Added patchy smoke to the forecast during the day Thursday

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cooler through the weekend, with a chance for showers and storms Thursday and again this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler through the weekend, with a chance for showers and storms Thursday and again this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Thursday: Fairly active weather day for Thursday. We have a fairly potent shortwave trough moving through. With it will be a quick shot of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm moving through the area from NW to SE. Timing puts this around Moosehead Lake and the North Woods around late morning or midday, then to I-95 and Downeast midday to early afternoon. Thinking most of the rain will be quick and mainly south of Houlton, with much less chance of rain in the far north. Not a lot of rain expected (generally one tenth to one half inch), but it could be moderate to heavy while it occurs over a 1-2 hour period at any one spot. The showers may even develop into a little line of thunderstorms, and if this happens, there is some concern of a brief shot of 40-50 mph wind gusts. If this occurs, the best shot is over southern portions of the area from Millinocket and Greenville south. Did add gusty winds to the forecast tomorrow with any of the convection.

Smoke is another concern for Thursday. The wind trajectory is favorable for a plume of smoke to move into mainly Northern Maine around dawn tomorrow. This would be coming from fires just east of James Bay, which is different than the source of yesterday's smoke which was from just north of Lake Superior. By the way, the smoke yesterday brought Presque Isle its worst air quality in recent years. Don't think tomorrow will be as bad, and there's a chance the smoke plume could not happen if wind direction isn't perfect and if fire behavior today is quiet from the fires near James Bay. But definitely something to watch, and have added patchy smoke to the forecast.

Friday Onward: Temperatures remain on the cooler side, staying in the 70s through the weekend with nighttime lows in the 50s. The next chance for showers and storms is this weekend as low pressure moves in from over the Great Lakes. Thinking that since the greatest forcing will arrive overnight, thunderstorms are generally less likely although can't rule out some thunder with elevated instability Saturday night.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Rest of Today...VFR. Can't totally an isolated storm the rest of today, but the chance is 10 percent or less at any spot, and left out of TAFs. W/NW wind this afternoon gusting to around 25 kts.

Tonight...VFR. W wind 5-10 kts.

Thursday...VFR with a chance of an hour or two of MVFR cigs from showers and possible storms mainly BGR/GNR/BHB. If this occurs, it would last only 1-3 hours and be roughly around 16-19z. W winds 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts, becoming NW in the afternoon. There is concern of a brief period of gusts to around 35 kts around 18z at BGR/BHB with showers and possible storms, but confidence is low. One wildcard for Thursday is smoke. There is about a 30 percent chance of smoke mainly N of BGR being thick enough to reduce visibility to MVFR levels during the day.

Thursday Night...VFR. W/NW wind 5-10 kts.

Thursday to Saturday: Mainly VFR with possible MVFR at times mainly in the north due to either cigs or afternoon showers/storms. Best chance for afternoon storms is Thursday. W winds 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts.

Friday to Friday night...VFR. W winds 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts, becoming light overnight.

Saturday...VFR early then becoming MVFR in rain showers at southern terminals. SW winds 5 to 10 kts.

Saturday night to Sunday...MVFR/VFR in -shra/-tsra. Light and variable winds.

Sunday night to Monday...Becoming VFR early Sunday night. W winds 5 to 10 kts, becoming SW Monday.

MARINE

Below SCA criteria on the coastal waters Friday through Saturday. Marginal SCA winds Saturday night through Sunday, then below criteria through Monday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.