textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 730 PM update to the aviation section below with the issuance of the 00z TAFs. Increased cloud cover across the northern half of the forecast area through the night based on current satellite observations and trends.

- The small craft advisory was allowed to expire, and the marine section below has been updated.

- Increase uncertainty in late week rain. Reduced precip chances for the late week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry through Monday with worsening drought conditions.

2) Rain chances return Monday night and remain through the rest of the week, but very low confidence on whether or not there will be notable drought relief.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry through Monday with worsening drought conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Dry conditions a virtual certainty today, Sunday, and Monday. High pressure will be centered to our south, bringing breezy daytime winds across the region. The high pressure will continue to pipe warm air into the region from the desert SW. Thus a warming trend will persist throughout the rest of the week with temps reaching into the 60s for the south and upper 50s for the north.

For those venturing outside this (Halloween) evening, there is high confidence in no precipitation, but it will be cool, with temperatures at sunset in the mid to upper 30s north, and low 40s Bangor/Downeast. By 9pm, it will fall to the low 30s north and mid to upper 30s Bangor/Downeast. Winds are expected to calm.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances return Monday night and remain through the rest of the week, but very low confidence on whether or not there will be notable drought relief.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... By Monday night into Tuesday, an occluded low pressure system north of the Great Lakes is expected to stretch a warm front into the north. Ensemble model trends are still uncertain with the track and timing, which push rain chances into the 15 to 30 percent chance for the north. If this precipitation occurs Monday night/Tuesday, it would likely be a quarter inch or less.

Heading into Tuesday night, Wednesday, and beyond, forecast confidence drops greatly. There is very low confidence in whether or not there will be any rain. Some ensembles/models have decent rain, while others have none. Heading toward Thursday night/Friday, there is a little better signal for a stronger low pressure or cold front and a decent rain event. That said, confidence is still very low.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Tonight...VFR. Light W winds.

Sunday-Monday...VFR. W winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts. LLWS likely across the area Sunday night.

Monday night-Tuesday: Chance of MVFR in any rain at northern terminals, otherwise VFR.

Tuesday night-Wednesday: VFR, with a chance of MVFR. SSE winds 5-10 kts.

Thursday...High uncertainty MVFR and VFR conditions. SW winds 5-10 kts.

MARINE

Over the intracoastal waters, decreasing winds below 20 kts and seas around 2 ft or less. For the coastal waters, other than possibly some gusts to around 25 kt on the coastal ocean waters Sunday night, sustained winds of 15 kt or less and seas of 4 ft or less are forecast Sunday- Wednesday. For the outer waters sustained winds of 20 kt or less and seas of 5 ft or less are forecast during the same time frame.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.