textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Increased uncertainty in timing of system Sunday into Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers, and potentially a few thunderstorms, likely late this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers, and potentially a few thunderstorms, likely late this weekend into early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A cold front approaches our area Saturday night with an area of low pressure developing along it Sunday. The low should pass north of our area Sunday night into Monday. There is considerable uncertainty with the timing and strength of this approaching system. Guidance from the Euro has a stronger system approaching later Monday, while the GFS and Canadian have a weaker system earlier Monday. Showers and an isolated thunderstorm possible, mainly over northern and western Maine, Sunday afternoon as the cold front approaches. The majority of the rain is expected Monday as the low passes to our north with the highest totals in north and west areas, with about a 50-60% chance of greater than 0.5 inches. Other areas could see up to 0.25 inches. Uncertainty remains in the timing of the system so rain totals could shift or be higher in some heavier bands. Rain tapers off over night Monday into Tuesday. The greatest chance for thunderstorms is also Monday but it is unclear how widespread they will be and how far south they will extend which is also complicated by the timing of the system. Models are currently showing limited instability and more southerly flow along the coast could bring a marine layer inland which would generally stunt convection. Fog likely each night through Sunday night and may persist into the morning.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Rest of Today...Mainly VFR with brief MVFR in low cigs. N winds 5-10 kts.

Tonight...VFR early, then lowering vsby/cig to MVFR/IFR in stratus and/or patchy to areas of fog. Light and variable winds.

Saturday...VFR once the fog burns off. Light and variable winds.

Saturday night...VFR early, then returning marine layer will drop terminals to IFR/LIFR later in the night. Light S winds.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers, and slight chance of thunderstorms, especially at northern terminals. Patchy fog possible early at southern terminals. S winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Sunday night - Monday...MVFR, possibly IFR, with rain showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Patchy fog Sunday night which may persist into Monday morning. S winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts.

Monday night - Tuesday...Becoming VFR Monday night. W winds 5-10 kts, increasing to 10 to 15 kts during the day with gusts to 20 kts.

Tuesday night - Wednesday...VFR, with some isolated showers possible. W winds 5-10 kts, shifting to S winds 5-10 kts Wednesday.

MARINE

Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions tonight, Saturday, and Saturday night. In general, light and variable winds tonight and Saturday becoming S Saturday night. Seas 3-4 ft through Tuesday, increasing to 5 ft on the outer waters Monday night. Winds become southerly by Saturday afternoon, then southwesterly Monday night. Rain possible late Sunday into Monday night. Fog likely tonight, Saturday night, and Sunday night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029- 030. MARINE...None.