textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Update to aviation discussion

-Included more blowing snow into the forecast for tomorrow, based on increasing wind gusts and potential for some flurries overnight in the north.

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential for some blowing snow tonight and tomorrow.

- Light to possibly moderate snow likely Tuesday night to Wednesday morning, with the best chances Downeast. Snow could impact the Wednesday morning commute.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Potential for some blowing snow tonight and tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Upper-level trough moves through the region tonight, as high pressure builds in to the west, creating a pressure gradient over the northeast. Northwest flow and some low-level moisture result in some potential light flurries throughout the north tonight. Very little to no accumulations. High wind gusts around 25 to 30 mph, alongside fluffy light snowfall on top of existing snow pack, could result in some drifting/blowing snow on roads near open areas. Always exercise caution is traveling in blowing snow prone areas. Gusty winds bring chance for some sub-advisory level wind chills, tonight into early Monday morning. Around -22 in the west, -20 to -15 in the north and northeast, -15 to -10 in the Central Highlands and Bangor region, and around -10 in the Downeast region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Light to possibly moderate snow likely Tuesday night to Wednesday morning, with the best chances Downeast. Snow could impact the Wednesday morning commute.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Our next system of concern comes Tuesday night to Wednesday morning. However, unfortunately there is still a lot of uncertainty in the track of this system and thus snow totals. This system will be moving east-southeast through the region, with a closed upper level low and weak surface low/surface trough. Most of the snow will come along and just north of this surface low/trough, but models/ensembles still disagree on the north/south trajectory of this. Southern parts of our forecast area, including the Bangor region and Downeast, appear to have the best snow chances, and kept likely PoPs in this area. That said, a significant minority of solutions keep snow entirely south/west of our area all-together and remaining south/west of a Bangor/Bar Harbor line. Models are in decent agreement at least on precipitation amounts, though we don't know the axis this precipitation will fall on. The most likely scenario is one where Bangor and Downeast get 1-3 inches of snow and areas further north get up to an inch. The potential does exist for as much as 3-6 inches of snow Downeast and 1-3 inches in the north if the northern track sets up. If the southern track sets up, our area could miss out on snow entirely. One factor to consider in the latter phase of the storm during the day Wednesday is the potential for an inverted trough/Nor'lun setting up along the coast, and if this sets up along the Downeast coast, there's a small (less than 20 percent chance) of a few places along the coast exceeding 6 inches. Snow from the storm will be generally low-density/fluffy with temperatures generally in the upper teens to mid 20 while the snow is falling (if it falls). Winds will be fairly light and blowing snow is not a concern. Confidence is pretty high in an onset time around mid-late evening Tuesday night Downeast/Bangor if the snow does make it this far north. Ending time is a bit more uncertain as to whether it tapers off early Wednesday or lingers into early afternoon. This system doesn't have much cold air to work with, and don't expect much of a drop in temperatures or much wind behind the system late Wednesday into Thursday. Relatively quiet weather follows into the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Tonight-Monday: VFR at all terminals tonight, though cannot rule out a stray MVFR cig at northern Aroostook terminals this evening. Light flurries possible tonight at Aroostook terminals along with BLSN, though no restrictions are expected. LLWS at all terminals tonight into tomorrow morning, mainly speed sheer at the top of the inversion layer. NW 10-15 kts with gusts to 20-25kts on Monday.

Monday night: Potential for another round of LLWS Monday night. Winds NW at 5-10 kts, with gusts 15-20 kts possible.

Tuesday...VFR with light winds.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR early. Considerable uncertainty late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning due to uncertainty in a track of a system that could bring snow. MVFR is the most likely outcome for BGR/BHB with light snow, and MVFR or VFR could occur from HUL north. That said, anything from LIFR to VFR is possible, especially for BGR/BHB, depending on the track of the system. Variable wind 5 kts.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...Mainly VFR BGR/BHB, and MVFR/VFR HUL/PQI/CAR/FVE with possible snow showers. NW wind 5-10 kts.

Friday...Mainly VFR. NW wind 5-10 kts.

MARINE

Small Craft Advisory criteria winds and seas over the intra- coastals tonight into tomorrow, and Gale Warning winds over the outer waters until late tonight. Persistent Small Craft Advisory conditions over the outer-waters later tonight through Monday night. Freezing Spray Advisory out until Monday morning, and then anticipating light freezing spray Monday into Monday night. N/NW winds tonight through Monday night.

After Monday night, the next chance of small craft winds comes Wednesday night through Friday morning, when there's a 50 percent chance of northerly winds reaching small craft levels. Seas generally 4 ft or less.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 AM EST Monday for ANZ050-051. Freezing Spray Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ050>052. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Monday for ANZ052.