textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Confidence remains the same on snow totals and wind chill values for the period.

-A winter weather advisory has been issued for Northern Piscataquis and Northeastern Aroostook Counties.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A frigid air mass will remain in place today with bitter cold wind chills.

2) A significant winter storm will impact the region from tonight through Monday night.

3) Colder than average temperatures continue this week

KEY MESSAGE 2

A significant winter storm will impact the region from tonight through Monday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure associated with the big winter storm impacting the country will spread snow into the southern part of our region early this evening, progressing north and reaching northern areas around midnight tonight. Low pressure will track south of the Gulf of Maine tonight through Monday bringing the heaviest snow to the southern part of our region with moderate snow over the north. Snow Monday morning will significantly impact the morning commute producing poor visibility and making roads snow covered and slippery. Snow will continue through the day on Monday with the heaviest snow Downeast and moderate snow north. This will be a cold, dry powdery snow throughout the area including along the coast.

By Monday night, models are staring to pick up on a secondary trof developing off the surface low. This indicates a possible increase in QPF before midnight, however, confidence is low due to some inconsistencies. Nevertheless, as the system exits to the E, moisture behind the system will create light snow showers late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Colder than average temperatures continue this week

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... The upper level closed low is expected to remain fairly stationary over the Hudson Bay through the rest of the week. The 850-925mb model temps show a very large area of the cold airmass remain across a large area of the CONUS. This should keep high temps in the teens above zero and low temps in the teens to single digits below zero. Breezy winds could cause wind chills to reach advisory levels by mid week. Temps should warm into the 20s by the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Today...VFR all sites. W wind around 5 kt.

Tonight...MVFR dropping to IFR and possibly LIFR across the south tonight as snow spreads in. VFR over the north this evening dropping to MVFR around midnight then IFR late tonight. Winds NE around 10 kt over the south and 5 kt over the north.

Monday...IFR to LIFR south and IFR north. NE winds 5 to 10 kt north and 10 to 15 kt south.

Monday Night...Conditions improve back towards MVFR. Winds NW 5 to 15 kts. Gusts 20 to 25 kts.

Tue-Thur...Generally VFR. WNW wind 5-10 kts.

MARINE

Winds will drop below SCA early this morning with a freezing spray advisory continuing through mid morning. Northeast winds will then increase to SCA this evening and gale late tonight, continuing into Monday. Moderate freezing spray this morning then light freezing spray this afternoon through Monday. Seas around 2 ft today, building to 8 ft tonight and 12 ft on Monday.

Gale conditions will likely continue through Tuesday morning before finally tapering below 35 kts on the coastal waters. Intracoastals will have gusts 25 to 35 kts through this time. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Gusts 25 to 30 kts likely to continue through the middle of the week on the coastal waters. Moderate freezing spray Monday night through Tuesday night. Freezing spray remains possible through the middle of the week.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-031-032. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM EST Tuesday for MEZ001>004. Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM EST Tuesday for MEZ005-006-010-011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ050>052. Gale Warning from 1 AM Monday to 9 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050- 051. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 9 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ052.