textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Expanded the Dense Fog Advisory into Southern, Central Penobscot County, All of Hancock County and into Coastal Washington County till 7AM EDT.

- Little more rain forecast with Sunday - Monday system

KEY MESSAGES

1) Areas of dense fog this morning Downeast, Bangor Region and into Southern Aroostook may impact travel with low visibilities.

2) There is the potential for widespread rainfall from Sunday into Monday. It is not certain how much, if any, relief this could bring to the developing drought at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Areas of dense fog this morning Downeast, Bangor Region and into Southern Aroostook may impact travel with low visibilities.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... ASOS, FAA Webcams and GOES-E Nighttime Microphysics Scheme satellite data shows an area of dense fog along The Airline (Route 9) to the Downeast shore. Additionally, dense fog extends up the Penobscot River into Bangor and northward to Lincoln, Springfield, Danforth and to Hodgdon area. Mainly impacting areas along I-95 and south/eastward. Fog is expanding into Central Washington County but has not become widespread yet. Dense Fog Advisory currently in effect for the Bangor Region, Central Penobscot County, All of Hancock County and Coastal Washington County till 7AM EDT. Given the significant cloud debris to the north expecting dense fog to remain along and southeast of I-95 through daybreak till diurnal heating helps mix/lift the fog out. Dense fog will make for potentially dangerous travel conditions this morning with rapidly changing visibilities.

KEY MESSAGE 2...There is the potential for areawide rainfall from Sunday into Monday. It is not certain how much, if any, relief this could bring to the developing drought at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure system approaches from the Great Lakes on Sunday, moving into Quebec by Monday. Additionally, a surface low pressure system slides along the coast on Sunday, bringing some additional moisture along the coast. Global models continue to lack favorable instabilty for severe storms, with most atmospheric soundings just looking moist. PWATs roughly in the 1.75 range, which is above the 90th percentile for the daily high PWAT value around Caribou. Regardless, not anticipating relief from drought with these showers, as most model guidance is keeping precipitation totals modest. Highest rain totals anticipated along the Downeast coast, with potential to receive 1/2 to 1 inch of rain. Convection along frontal boundary could result in some higher rain totals, but will need to monitor how regional models pick up on this system to see if environment will be favorable enough to support thunderstorms. Best chance for thunderstorm development is Sunday afternoon. As of now, high confidence in rain falling, but lower confidence in how much, and the potential for thunderstorms.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

This Morning till 12z...LIFR at BGR/BHB due to FG. 1/4mi vsby and VV002 both terms. Vsby/cigs may fluctuate through 10z before slowly mixing/lifting out of these terms. Elsewhere mainly VFR but SCT-BKN IFR possible at FVE due to BR/FG developing. Confidence in FG/BR at northern terms is low due to ongoing higher VFR cigs. Winds light and variable less than 5kt at all terms.

Today...VFR. Light W winds 5-10kt becoming SW late morning at BHB with the seabreeze. VCSH for FVE, CAR and PQI in the afternoon but confidence in low.

Tonight...VFR. Low confidence in BCFG/BR reducing vsby. Light and variable winds.

Friday...VFR. Light N-NW winds less than 5kt.

Friday night-Saturday: VFR. Rain begins to move into KBHB and KBGR Saturday afternoon. Chance for overnight valley fog Friday night. E/SE winds at 5-10 kts.

Saturday night-Sunday: MVFR/IFR in rain showers. Slight chance for thunderstorms Saturday night, and Sunday afternoon. E winds Saturday night at 5-10 kts, becoming SE on Sunday.

Sunday night-Monday: MVFR/IFR in rain showers. Slight chance for thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday afternoon. SE winds at 5-10 kts Sunday night, becoming SW on Monday.

MARINE

Winds/seas remaining less than 25 kts/5 ft through Saturday, then a chance (about 20 percent) of winds or seas reaching 25 kts/5 ft Sunday/Monday. Fog likely the next few nights. Rain moves in Saturday, with a chance for thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for MEZ011-015- 016-029-030. MARINE...None.