textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 7 PM Update to the Aviation section with the issuance of the 00z TAFs. Raised evening temperatures due to current observations and trends. - Increased confidence in forecast winds. - Still low confidence in rain totals.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A Noreaster will impact at least Downeast Maine this weekend into Monday, bringing gusty winds, high surf, and periods of rain.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A Noreaster will impact at least Downeast Maine this weekend into Monday, bringing gusty winds, high surf, and periods of rain.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... We are still expecting a strong Noreaster impacting our area from Friday through the weekend and into Monday. However, we will be on the far northern fringe of the Noreaster with the center staying south of Massachusetts through Sunday, and impacts this far north through Sunday will be much less than areas further south. Here is what to expect for the various components of the storm:

Periods of Rain...Rain chances will be far greater Downeast than northern areas for the storm, with rain possibly developing late Friday night, but more likely on Saturday, and persisting off and on through Monday. There is still substantial uncertainty on the northern extent of the rain. Most likely Downeast up to Bangor will see periods of rain through the weekend, but totals could be anywhere from one quarter inch to two inches, as there is a ton of uncertainty. Even with the higher totals, we would not expect flooding. Sunday night and Monday, a much weaker version of the Noreaster finally lifts north and tracks into the Gulf of Maine, at which point rain chances finally increase over the whole area. That said, not expecting anything heavy.

Gusty Winds...Winds from the northeast will increase Friday night into Saturday, remain gusty through Sunday, then decrease a bit into Monday. Winds will be stronger the further south you go, with gusts topping out around only 20 mph in Northern Maine this weekend, but 25-35 mph Bangor and Downeast. We don't anticipate impacts from the wind other than maybe a very isolated outage Downeast.

High Surf...Seas near the shore will be fairly rough with 5-9 ft seas, much of it as a longer period south/southeast swell. We are not expecting impactful coastal flooding, though waves breaking on the rocks will be hazardous for any onlookers. Conditions should be a bit more hazardous for coastal Hancock than coastal Washington. Conditions slowly ease Sunday night into Monday.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Tonight-Friday night...VFR across all terminals. Brief MVFR/IFR possible late tonight in patchy fog valley fog, primarily at KHUL/KPQI though all terminals have a chance for brief vis decreases. Chance is too low for mention in 00z TAFs. Light and variable winds, then NE winds increase at Downeast terminals 5-15 kts on Friday.

Saturday - Monday...VFR north, except MVFR possible Monday. VFR/MVFR Downeast with rain likely at times. Across northern areas, N/NE winds 5 to 15 knots. Across Downeast areas, N/NE winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to around 20-30 knots Saturday/Sunday, with winds diminishing a bit Sunday night and Monday back to 10 to 15 knots.

MARINE

Northeast winds increase to Gales late tonight into Friday, winds peaking around 45 knots in the outer waters and around 40 knots in the coastal waters by Friday night. A Gale Warning is now in effect from 2AM on Friday in outer waters and from 11AM in coastal waters and will persist through at least 8PM Sunday night. Gales remain possible in the intracoastal waters, where a Small Craft Advisory is in effect. Peak wave heights in the outer waters will be around 11ft to 16ft, and around 7ft to 12ft in the coastal waters. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for coastal Hancock County where large waves could pose a rip current risk and impact people on rock outcrops.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...High Surf Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for MEZ029. MARINE...Gale Warning from 2 AM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ050- 051. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ052. Gale Warning from 11 AM Friday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ080- 081.