textproduct: Caribou

SYNOPSIS

A small area of low pressure will cross the region this morning. High pressure will approach from the northwest tonight into Friday and remain to our north over the weekend. Low pressure will approach on Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

A small area of low pressure supported by a shortwave diving down from the northwest will cross the area from northwest to southeast this morning. Snow ahead of this low will continue across mainly over eastern areas into mid morning then taper off around midday as the low exits to the east.

The gradient will quickly tighten behind this low as high pressure begins to push in from the northwest. This will bring increasing gusty northwesterly winds late today into tonight. The winds upon fresh cold dry powdery snow will result in significant blowing snow, especially across open areas from late today through tonight. Some patchy blowing snow will continue into Friday morning as the strong gusty cold winds continue. The gusty winds combined with temperatures dropping into the low single digits will result in frigid wind chills tonight into Friday morning down to the teens below across most of the area Friday morning. Otherwise, tonight will bring partial clearing followed by sunshine on Friday. Winds will begin to diminish a bit late Friday as high pressure builds to our north.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Key Message... 1) Anomalously cold temps through the period

Key Message 1... High pressure will build into the area from the west Friday evening with mostly clr skies areawide. Some questions still remain regarding high cirrus from system moving off of the mid-Atlantic coast and how much impact this may have on temps over wrn portions of the region. Given positron of sfc high winds look to decouple over the North Woods and have lowered mins accordingly for Friday night with temps approaching negative 10 by Saturday morning. Where winds remain mixed over the northeast temps will dip to the negative single digits, with single digits for Downeast and the coast.

Saturday max temps will be some 15 degree seasonal norms. Though it will likely be sunny it will end up being a pretty raw day. Clear skies Saturday night should bring temps down once again into the single digits over all but the North Woods, where they will drop below zero.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Key Messages... 1) Potential significant winter storm early next week

Key Message 1... Guidance continues to indicate the potential for a significant winter storm moving into the area early Monday. Upper level energy appears to have just gotten into the upper air network in Alaska and will hopefully paint a clearer picture within the next 1-2 days. The latest med range guidance continues to showing ridge cresting over the CWA late Sunday night with sfc low over the Great Lakes.

Whether secondary cyclogenesis can occur early enough to keep most of the area as all snow remains very unclear at this time. If secondary development occurs south and early most of the area may see moderate amount of snow on Monday. If it develops later and further north, a mixed bag of precip is expected north of Bangor and a possible cold rain along the coast. Most of the 00z GFS ensemble members move precip into the area between 06-12z Monday as do the CMC and the EC AI ensemble members. Latest NBM has picked up on this trend of slow pops down by delaying likely pops over the southwest until 12z Monday. Either way, post holiday travel will be impacted for the entire area.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

NEAR TERM: North...MVFR to IFR conditions early this morning will improve to MVFR late today then VFR tonight except locally MVFR in blowing snow from late today into early Friday morning. VFR Friday. Winds light SW early this morning then strong gusty NW late today into Friday morning, diminishing Friday afternoon.

South...MVFR conditions will improve to VFR this afternoon and remain VFR tonight into Friday. Winds light SW early this morning then strong gusty NW late today into Friday morning, diminishing Friday afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Friday night-Sunday...VFR. NNW 5kts.

Sunday night...Diminishing to MVFR late. Light WNW becoming light S late.

Monday...IFR/LIFR in light snow north and mixed precip south. SSE 5- 10kts.

MARINE

NEAR TERM: A gale warning will be up from late today through Friday morning as well as a freezing spray advisory from late this evening into Friday morning for impacts of strong cold NW winds. Seas building up to 6 ft today then 8 ft tonight, subsiding to 4 ft on Friday.

SHORT TERM: Small craft level winds over the outer waters diminish Friday evening with marginal winds thru Sunday morning. Headlines not anticipated Sunday and Sunday night with winds increasing to aoa 25kts Monday afternoon and seas becoming elevated in southerly swell. Gales will be possible Monday night but will depend on surface low development over the Gulf of Maine.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ050>052. Freezing Spray Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Friday for ANZ050>052.