textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Decreased dewpoints for Thursday with efficient mixing to around 850 mb.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm and dry weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday. The next chance of showers is Friday afternoon across the north and Saturday for the rest of the area as a cold front approaches.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm and dry weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday. The next chance of showers is Friday afternoon across the north and Saturday for the rest of the area as a cold front approaches.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... An upper level ridge continues to build across the New England region, bringing subsidence to the region and fair weather. As 500mb heights rise under this dominant synoptic pattern, temperatures will continue to rise, with lows tonight only falling into the lower 50s and high temperatures on Thursday lifting into the mid 80s over most of the forecast area. A prominant sea breeze is expected once more Thursday afternoon, however temperatures should still be able to approach 80, if not lift into the lower 80s, over all but the very immediate coast before the boundary begins to roll northward and decrease temperatures through the afternoon hours.

The next low pressure system will approach the area on Friday, bringing the next round of rain showers to northern Maine. Low to mid level dry air ahead of this front, established under the strong ridge of high pressure, will limit how quickly rain moves into the CWA, as well as the southern extent of rain by the end of the day on Friday. Rain will finally begin to push into the Bangor and Downeast regions during the day on Saturday as the profile saturates down through the surface. Overall, these showers will likely only bring a few tenths of an inch of rain due to their convective nature. With the instability brough about with the cold front, there could be a few thunderstorms that develop during peak diurnal heating on Saturday.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Tonight-Thursday...VFR. Light and variable winds today and tonight, then WSW winds 10 to 15 kts for Thursday with gusts to 20 kts possible. BGR/BHB and other coastal terminals will see a shift to S winds each afternoon with the sea breeze.

Thursday night...VFR. W winds around 5 kts becoming light and variable. LLWS may develop across northern terminals through the night as a cold front approaches from the north.

Friday...Mainly VFR, possible MVFR Aroostook terminals in showers late afternoon. Winds light and variable, becoming S at 5 to 10 kts at KBGR/KBHB and coastal terminals in the afternoon with the sea breeze.

Friday night-Saturday...Mainly VFR at Downeast terminals. MVFR/IFR conditions at Aroostook terminals in rain and isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Light ESE winds northern terminals becoming W 5- 10kts afternoon. Light S winds Downeast terminals becoming SW 5- 15kts afternoon.

Saturday night...MVFR/IFR in showers. N winds 5-10kts

Sunday...MVFR/IFR in showers Downeast terminals, improving to VFR late. NE winds 5-15kts.

MARINE

Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions through the weekend. A SW swell will develop Thursday, becoming a SE swell Friday into Saturday with a period of around 8 to 10 seconds. Sea surface temperatures remain in the mid 40s across most of the coastal waters.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.