textproduct: Caribou

SYNOPSIS

An area of low pressure exits east over Nova Scotia early this morning. High pressure builds in behind this system through tonight, then slides offshore on Tuesday. Another weak low tracks across the Gulf of Maine Tuesday night. A stronger low pressure system tracks from the Great Lakes Wednesday morning to the southern Canadian Maritimes by Thursday morning, followed by a cold front crossing the area on Thursday. A weak area of high pressure builds in Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Key Messages -Light snow tapers off early this morning -Some patchy blowing snow possible today over the Bangor/Downeast region -Cold temperatures persist through Tuesday

600 AM Update...Clouds are clearing out of the area a bit quicker than expected and temperatures stayed slightly warmer than predicted last night likely to to the winds picking up, promoting mixing. Adjusted forecast to observations.

245 AM Update...Current mesoscale analysis shows a band of 850mb frontogenesis over the Upper Penobscot Valley and northern Washington county which is contributing to a band of moderate snowfall moving south. Increased snowfall in the areas impacted by the band.

Previous Discussion...

Low pressure has exited the coast and is moving east through the Gulf of Maine. The low is expected to strengthen this morning as it crosses into Nova Scotia. Mainly light snow is ongoing from the coast all the way north to Frenchville. The highest totals are expected to be Downeast, especially in eastern Washington county. 3 to 5" are possible here as the low will be intensifying as it passes just to the south. Current radar shows a band of moderate snow just south of Millinocket which may result in another localized area of higher totals over the Upper Penobscot Valley.

A few lingering snow showers are possible early this morning as the system exits but the majority should clear to the east by 7AM. As high pressure begins to build in from the west, a tight pressure gradient will set up leading to some gusty winds. This will not only result in very cold wind chills around 0 degrees in the south and negative teens farther north but could contribute to some blowing snow. Not expecting the blowing snow to cause major impacts but it could temporarily reduce visibility on roadways, especially in the Bangor/Downeast region.

High pressure sticks around through Tuesday along with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below average. The coldest day is expected to be Monday but the coldest wind chills will be Monday night as a result of subzero temperatures and a light westerly breeze.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Key Messages

*Light snow mainly for Downeast areas Tuesday night *Another round of snow north, with snow/rain for the Bangor region Wednesday night.

Weak warm advection and an approaching short wave will bring another round of light snow to the region Tuesday night. The best probability of measurable snow will be across Downeast portions of the forecast area. This will be a quick moving system with limited moisture. At present, it appears snow accumulations will range from 1 to 2 inches with this system, and mainly across Downeast areas. There could even be enough low level warming for a snow/rain mix along the immediate coast. Across the north, little if any accumulation is expected.

This system exits quickly by Wednesday morning, with any lingering light snow ending by or shortly after sunrise. The reprieve will be short lived, as a clipper type system quickly approaches from the west during Wednesday. There are still some uncertainty regarding the track of the low, but the overall model consensus indicates a track across the central portions of the forecast area, and then into New Brunswick province later Wednesday night.

Precipitation with this system will develop from west to east during Wednesday afternoon. The precipitation will be mainly in the form of snow to the north of the Bangor region. Expect precipitation to begin as snow in the Bangor region, then mix with and change to rain during the afternoon. Along the coast, precipitation should begin as mainly rain.

As far as snow accumulations with Wednesday nights system, it appears that northern areas may see a general 2 to 4 inch snowfall Wednesday night, and it is not totally out of the question that we may need an advisory for this area. Across the Bangor region and Downeast, little if any snow accumulations are expected.

Afternoon high temperatures on Wednesday will be near, or just below normal for this time of year.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Key Messages

*Continued below normal temperatures for this time of year.

National blended model approach was followed as the basis for the forecast during this period.

Surface low exits to our northeast Thursday through Thursday night with westerly flow and continued cold advection. Upper level low pressure will cross the region through Thursday night. Some uncertainty as to whether it crosses the state or passes to our north. Expect mainly cloudy skies across the north on Thursday with partly cloudy skies for the Bangor region and Downeast. Scattered flurries or isolated snow showers not totally out of the question.

West to northwest flow is expected late week into next weekend. At present, it looks mainly dry. Afternoon high temperatures will generally continue below normal for this time of year.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

NEAR TERM: Some lingering snow showers early this morning could lead to a brief drop to MVFR for CAR/PQI/FVE. Otherwise, VFR for all terminals through Tuesday. LLWS expected at northern terminals tonight. NW winds increase to 10 to 15 kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts this morning, then subside to around 5 kts out of the W by tonight. S/SW winds 5 to 10 kts Tuesday.

SHORT TERM:

Tue night...MVFR or lower -SN, especially KBGR/KBHB.

Wed...VFR early, then MVFR or lower developing in the afternoon in -SN north and -SN/-RA south.

Wed night...MVFR or lower. -SN north and -RA south.

Thu through Fri...VFR/MVFR. Isold -shsn. Gusty NW wind.

MARINE

NEAR TERM: A small craft advisory is in effect from 4 AM this morning to 11 PM tonight for the intercoastal waters. A gale warning is in effect until 11 AM this morning for the outer waters. Winds increase to above gale criteria for the outer waters and above small craft criteria over the inner waters early this morning. A few wind gusts could approach gale criteria over the inner waters. The strongest winds should be around daybreak today and will be accompanied by seas 3 to 6 ft on the outer waters. Winds remain above small craft criteria until just before midnight tonight for the inner waters and a few hours after midnight for the outer waters. Winds and seas below small craft criteria Tuesday.

SHORT TERM: Potential for gale force wind gusts Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Small craft conditions are then expected Thursday into Friday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for ANZ052.