textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

-Precipitation totals have decreased across southern and central areas through Friday

-Decreased temperatures slightly for Thursday and Saturday

KEY MESSAGES

1) Light rain showers expected this evening through Friday, especially for southern and central areas. A soaking rain is not expected as model guidance has suggested lower totals.

2) A warming trend accompanies dry weather this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Light rain showers expected this evening through Friday, especially for southern and central areas. A soaking rain is not expected as model guidance has suggested lower totals.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...Low pressure approaching our area from the Great Lakes region will bring some light rain this evening and overnight as a warm front passes through the area. Rainfall is expected to be mostly over central and northern regions where around 0.1 inches overall is expected through Thursday morning. Some patchy fog is also possible tonight as southerly flow brings ample moisture in from the Gulf of Maine. A break in the rain is expected Thursday morning before additional rainfall arrives Thursday afternoon and overnight associated with a secondary low developing along the southern New England coast. Models have continued to trend further south with this low resulting in progressively lower rainfall totals. Generally thinking overall rainfall will be no more than about 0.25" with the highest totals towards Dover- Foxcroft and Bar Harbor. Showery conditions may persist through Friday, especially closer to the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A warming trend accompanies dry weather this weekend into early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A large vertically stacked ridge will move into the region on Saturday and remain until Sunday. The surface ridge will put the region in a SW flow. Since the ridge reaches all the way down into Texas, the warm airmass in the southern US will be piped into the region. Upper air model soundings show the mixing layer reach to just above 950mb. This should bring breezy winds and possibly some cooler temps reaching the surface. Decided to lower temps slightly below guidance.

A shortwave is expected to move through the region on Sunday, though confidence in low in the system producing any rain that reaches the ground. Upper air model soundings indicate very dry air aloft, warm surface temps, steep lapse rates, and low PWATS. Decided to keep precip chances at slight chance. In addition to the lack of rain, gusty winds and low dewpoints could bring RH values between 30-40%.

Should the ridge remain overhead into early next week as currently projected, temperatures may continue to climb through the first half of next week, with Bangor and the Interior Downeast region potentially seeing temperatures make a run towards 80 by Tuesday. Daily cloud cover and precip chances will have a large influence on daily high temperatures as well. For Monday into Tuesday, the positioning of a warm front north of the CWA will determine how warm the northern half of the forecast area gets Monday and Tuesday. If the warm front stalls across Aroostook County, rain showers and cloudy skies could keep temperatures dampened, though temperatures may still lift into the upper 60s and remain above average. Without this cloud cover and rain, say the warm front stays well north of the CWA, the environment in the north will more closely match Downeast Maine and daily high temperatures could make a run for the upper 70s through Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through Tonight...Conditions deteriorate to MVFR at southern terminals and IFR at northern terminals in -RA. S winds 5 to 10 kts.

Thursday...Conditions improve to MVFR/VFR in the morning then may deteriorate to IFR at southern terminals in -RA. Generally a mix of MVFR and VFR throughout the day at northern terminals. S/SE winds 10 to 15 kts.

Thursday night...Generally VFR at northern terminals with MVFR at southern terminals in -RA. E wind around 5 kts.

Friday-Friday night...VFR at northern terminals, MVFR/IFR at KBGR/KBHB in rain. NE winds 5 to 10 kts becoming light and variable Friday night.

Saturday...Generally VFR across all terminals. SW winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts.

Sunday...VFR across all terminals. W to NW winds 10 to 15 kts gusting 20 to 25 kts.

Monday...VFR. Light and variable winds.

MARINE

Generally below SCA conditions on all waters through Thursday night but seas and winds get close to criteria on the coastal waters early tonight and again Thursday afternoon. Below gale conditions on the outer waters.

Seas increase into the day on Friday as a low pressure system crosses the waters, with seas lifting to 5 to 9 ft with a SE long period swell before subsiding Friday night. Gusts may briefly touch 25 kts on the coastal and outer waters early on Friday. Winds increase once more this weekend, with gusts 25 to 30 kts by Saturday night and seas increasing to 5 to 7 ft, then will decrease Sunday night into Monday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.