textproduct: Caribou

SYNOPSIS

Weak high pressure builds south of the area today. An area of low pressure passes to the north Wednesday, with a cold front moving through the area Wednesday evening. Another low pressure passes to our north Friday, with another cold front moving through our area. High pressure builds in Saturday with another low pressure system passing north of the area on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

620 am update... Quick update to add more cloud cover in the Central Highlands early. These clouds are producing snow flurries and added mention into the fcst as well. No other chgs needed with this update.

Prev discussion blo... Key Messages -Spotty freezing rain possible on Wednesday across the north

Sfc high centered along the Carolina coast with northern extent of ridge axis influencing the region/s wx this morning. Mostly clear skies over the area with temps under clear skies dipping into the single digits and down toward 0F. Weak wave bringing snow showers to sern Quebec this morning but expect this will erode as it heads twd CWA this morning. Skies will remain mostly sunny today over most of the area this morning before clouding up acrs the west in the afternoon with warm front approaching. Afternoon maxes remain below normal with highs in the lwr 20s acrs the north and upr 20s Downeast with mid 30s along the coast.

Partly to mostly cloudy skies expected this evening with upr level disturbance having the potential to bring light snow to the north early Wednesday morning. Warm front may draw H8 temps above freezing during the day on Wednesday, leading to perhaps some spotty -fzra acrs the north. Any freezing rain will lead to just a glaze of ice with very little impact. Surface temps look to rise to near freezing acrs the north early in the afternoon to prevent any real chance for accretion.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Key Messages -Well above normal temperatures Thursday and Thursday night with continuous warming throughout the night

The frontal boundary should exit Wednesday night, bringing a surface ridge into the region. Light winds and decreasing clouds should decrease temps into the teens. By Thursday afternoon, the warm front from the approaching low should stretch to the north, shifting winds from the S. This shift should boost afternoon and evening temps above freezing. By Thursday night, S winds should increase throughout the night. Models indicate the CAD setting up at the beginning of the night before the winds become gusty. As the LLJ moves in, the warm airmass should follow, allowing for antidiurnal temp increase into the 40s by sunrise. This warming throughout the night should produce areas of fog across the region, mainly where the snowpack exists.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Key Messages -Strong winds are likely with damaging winds possible Friday, particularly along the coast. Additional strong wind gusts are likely Friday night into Saturday morning. -Rain is expected across the entire area Friday followed by temperatures falling below freezing Friday night.

The main concerns for the long term are the possible damaging winds and rain/snowmelt causing flooding concerns. Rainfall amounts of one half to one inch are most likely, with a small chance of local amounts to around 1.5 inches. Significant snowpack loss is expected Downeast, with less snowpack loss and more compaction for central and northern areas. The snowpack should absorb most of the rainfall, however, with above freezing temps for more than 24 hours and up to 1 inch of rain possible, urban and small stream flooding is expected. The low level jet will also produce strong to possibly damaging winds, especially along the coast. Further inland, cold snowpack should act to strengthen the surface inversion and limit mixing towards the surface.

Both the GFS and Euro have sped up the timing of the cold front, with the boundary exiting Friday evening. This earlier exit should begin to drop temps earlier, switching any remaining rain to snow before midnight. In addition, the early cooling increases the concerns of a flash freeze, especially if surfaces do not get enough time to dry before the temps drop. The confidence is low seeing as the Canadian has a slower exit of the front.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours. Winds from the southwest today before turning more southerly this evening. LLWS at all terminals late tonight thru 12z Wednesday. Cigs lower to MVFR mid-morning Wednesday over northern terminals with possible IFR in light snow during the afternoon. Winds SSW 5-15kts with gusts to 20kts.

SHORT TERM: Wednesday night...Improving to VFR north. Remaining VFR elsewhere. Winds WSW 5-15kts.

Thursday...VFR. Winds S 10 gusting to 20 kts.

Thursday night-Friday...IFR in rain, possibly lower with areas of fog. LLWS Thursday night and Friday morning. Winds S 10-25 kts with gusts to 30kts north and 40kts for BGR and coastal terminals.

Friday night to Saturday...MVFR north, VFR Downeast. Winds NW 15-25kts with gusts to 35kts, decreasing Saturday afternoon.

MARINE

NEAR TERM: SCA conditions diminish early this morning with seas dropping below 5ft over the outer waters and winds dropping just before sunrise. Southwest winds will remain below small craft levels during the day today before ramping up late tonight. Gale force winds expected after 06z tonight over the outer waters and increasing over the intracoastal several hours later. Seas become elevated after midnight and increase to 8 to 13 feet Wednesday afternoon. South- southwesterly gale force winds expected throughout the day on Wednesday, though inner waters may drop off in the afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Winds diminish below gales Wednesday night then below SCA levels Thursday morning before increasing back to gale force from the south Thursday evening. Winds then shift from the west late Friday afternoon, remaining at gale force through early Saturday morning before falling below SCA levels by Saturday night. Seas increase above 5ft late Tuesday night to as high as 12ft over the outer waters Wednesday afternoon. Seas diminish slightly before ramping up again toward 15ft Friday afternoon and remain elevated above 5ft through Saturday evening.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from late tonight through Wednesday evening for ANZ050>052.