textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Increased confidence in rainfall totals.

720pm update...Update for 00z aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A Noreaster will impact at least Downeast Maine this weekend into Monday and possibly Tuesday, bringing gusty winds, high surf, and periods of rain.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A Noreaster will impact at least Downeast Maine this weekend into Monday and possibly Tuesday, bringing gusty winds, high surf, and periods of rain.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... We are still expecting a strong Noreaster to impact our area from through the weekend and into Monday. However, we will be on the far northern fringe of the Noreaster with the center staying south of Massachusetts through Sunday, and impacts in Northern regions through Sunday will be much less than areas further south. Here is what to expect for the various components of the storm:

Periods of Rain...Rain chances will be far greater Downeast than northern areas for the storm, with rain persisting off and on into Tuesday. Short range model guidance remains resolute in the more southerly track from yesterday. As a result, periods of rain should reach the Downeast coast by late this afternoon extending across Bangor and the interior Downeast through tonight. Rainfall totals have now begun to paint a much clearer picture as the event approaches. Precipitation amounts between 0.75 inches and 1.25 inch are expected across the Bangor region and Downeast with localized totals up to 1.5 inches along the coast. Much of this will wait until Sunday night and Monday to occur, but even with these totals, we would not expect flooding. Sunday night and Monday, a much weaker version of the Noreaster finally lifts north and tracks into the Gulf of Maine, at which point rain chances and totals finally increase over the whole area. Northern Maine could finally see some rain late Monday into Tuesday, but it looks like it will be fairly light with maybe around one quarter inch.

Gusty Winds...Winds from the northeast will increase throughout tonight, before becoming gusty overnight and through Sunday, then diminishing through Monday. Winds will be stronger the further south you go but will top out around 25 mph across Bangor and the Downeast with the aforementioned southerly track of the system. Isolated higher amounts along the coast cannot be ruled out. We don't anticipate impacts from the wind other than maybe a very isolated outage Downeast.

High Surf...Seas near the shore will be fairly rough with 4-8 ft seas, much of it as a longer period south/southeast swell. We are not expecting impactful coastal flooding, though waves breaking on the rocks will be hazardous for any onlookers. Conditions should be a bit more hazardous for coastal Hancock than coastal Washington. Conditions slowly ease Sunday night into Monday.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Tonight...VFR over Aroostook terminals. BGR/BHB dropping to MVFR this evening in showers and low cigs. NE winds 10-15 gusting to 25kts through daybreak Downeast terminals with Aroostook terminals seeing NE winds 3-8kts overnight.

Sunday - Monday Morning...VFR at Northern terminals, VFR/MVFR Downeast with rain likely at times. Across northern terminals, NE winds 5 to 10 kts. Across southern terminals, NE winds 10 to 15 kts, gusting to 25kts.

Monday Afternoon and Monday Night...Generally MVFR areawide with rain likely. Possible IFR. NE wind 5-10 kts.

Tuesday night to Thursday...Mainly VFR with light winds.

MARINE

Northeast winds slowly increase through tonight, peaking around 40kts in the outer waters and 35kts in the coastal waters by this afternoon and persisting through Sunday night. A gale warning is now in effect for both the coastal and outer waters and persisting through 8PM Sunday. The updated storm track has lowered the risk of gales in the inter coastal waters, but a small craft advisory remains in effect. Wave heights have also diminished with outer waters around 8-13ft and 4-8ft in the coastal waters. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for coastal Hancock County where large waves could pose a rip current risk and impact people on rock outcrops. Winds/seas gradually decrease beginning Sunday night and into Tuesday, and quiet conditions should remain through Thursday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for MEZ029. MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ050-051-080-081. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ052.