textproduct: Caribou
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- Confidence has now decreased in the potential for a widespread soaking rainfall Wednesday night through Friday.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Frost early this morning mainly in the north, and more widespread tonight.
2) Unsettled weather pattern Wednesday night through Friday but rainfall amounts will generally be on the lighter side.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Frost early this morning mainly in the north, and more widespread tonight.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure is building in from the west early this morning. Winds are lighter over western/northern portions of the area versus areas further south/east such as Downeast, and these lighter winds have allowed northern/western portions of the area especially to cool down. Low temperatures dropped below freezing for most places roughly along and north/west of a Danforth/Millinocket/Dover-Foxcroft line. Temperatures along the coast are a bit warmer around 40.
Quiet weather today with cool temperatures. Expect mostly cloudy skies with a stratocumulus deck developing late morning. Can't rule out an isolated shower, but generally dry.
Next threat of frost is tonight, and with high pressure moving overhead and skies becoming almost totally clear, it looks like a good situation for temperatures bottoming out. Went cooler than most guidance for low temperatures. The frost program/growing season is active from Bangor south/east and may need frost headlines with mid 30s in the forecast. Will let day shift further evaluate. Temperatures over Northern Maine should be in the mid 20s to low 30s. People anywhere in the forecast area with tender plants outside would be wise to protect them tonight.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather pattern Wednesday night through Friday but rainfall amounts will generally be on the lighter side.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Upper level low pressure will slide east from the Great Lakes region Wednesday night and then east of the New England coast on Friday. Rain will develop later Wednesday and Wednesday night as the upper low and associated surface low tracks east. Upper level ridging will be in place across the region, so rainfall amounts are expected to be on the lighter side Wednesday night, generally only around a tenth of an inch or less.
The upper level/surface lows continue to track east during Thursday. Again, upper ridging extending westward from the Canadian Maritimes will suppress the steadier rainfall to our south and west. Rainfall amounts on Thursday are expected to once again generally be on the light side a tenth of an inch or less.
Thursday night and Friday, weak secondary low pressure develops east of southern New England and then tracks east out into the open waters of the western atlantic. The heaviest rainfall is likely to stay south of the forecast area through Friday.
With the heaviest rainfall expected to stay south of the area through mid to late week, the threat of a widespread soaking rainfall has now decreased.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Today... High confidence in VFR today. SCT-BKN deck around 5K AGL develops around 14z, and then dissipates closer to 0z this evening. NW wind around 10 kts with gusts 15-20 kts.
Tonight... VFR areawide with high confidence. Light winds.
Wednesday... VFR with a small possibility (less than 30 percent) of MVFR developing by 0z Thursday for GNR/BGR/BHB as clouds increase from the west and rain begins to develop from west to east. S wind increasing to 5-10 kts with gusts to 20 kts late.
Wednesday night: MVFR as -RA begin to move in, south to north. S TO SE winds 5 to 15 kt.
Thursday and Thursday night: MVFR/IFR likely with -RA. Greatest chance for IFR at southern terminals. S to SE winds 10 to 15 kt becoming E to NE 5 to 10 kts overnight.
Friday and Friday night: MVFR/VFR with numerous rain showers, especially at southern terminals. E to NE wind 5 to 10 kts becoming N overnight.
Saturday: MVFR/VFR with scattered rain showers. W to NW wind 5 to 10 kts.
MARINE
Conditions below small craft today through the day Wednesday, with no fog on the waters.
SCA conditions are possible Wednesday night through Thursday night.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None. MARINE...None.
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