textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the interior and coastal Downeast region, including the Bangor area, through 9 AM.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms across mostly northern and central areas today. Rain, with a slight chance of thunderstorms, across the entire region Monday.

2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms late this week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered showers and thunderstorms across mostly northern and central areas today. Rain, with a slight chance of thunderstorms, across the entire region Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A cold front will slowly move east across Quebec province today while low pressure forms along the front. Although the amount of instability is uncertain, expect isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across northern and central areas this afternoon then persist into the evening in advance of the approaching cold front. The cold front will approach the Saint Lawrence River Valley later tonight. Showers will occur across the forecast area overnight. The intensifying low will track northwest, then north, of Maine Monday drawing the cold front across the forecast area. Rain will occur across the entire forecast area Monday with the cold front. Although instability will be limited, could also have the slight chance of a thunderstorm. Rain then tapers to showers Monday night in the wake of the cold front. Models agree that the greater rain totals with this event should occur along the track of the low across Quebec province. However, uncertainty still exists regarding rainfall totals across the forecast area dependent on the location and persistence of where areas of heavier rain might develop. Areas of dense fog are also possible this morning and again tonight with moisture moving inland from the Gulf of Maine. The best chance for dense fog will occur across Downeast areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered showers and thunderstorms late this week.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... High pressure over the area mid week weakens Thursday as upper level shortwave energy moves in from the west. Models are currently showing the potential for some weak low pressure development in the area which may kick off some showers and storms. Long range ensemble guidance shows the potential for at least a few hundred J/kg of instability but is relatively uncertain in when/where the best forcing for ascent will be so will need to wait to get better clarity on storm location, strength, and coverage.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Today...Across northern areas VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR/LIFR, this morning with fog. Generally VFR this afternoon, though variable conditions could occur with any showers/thunderstorms. Across Downeast areas MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR/VLIFR, this morning with fog. Generally VFR this afternoon, though low clouds and fog could linger along the Downeast coast. South/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Tonight...Across northern areas VFR/MVFR early, then lowering to IFR/LIFR. Showers. An isolated thunderstorm also possible during the evening. Across Downeast areas MVFR/IFR early lowering to IFR/LIFR occasional VLIFR. Showers developing. Areas of fog region wide. South/southeast winds around 10 knots.

Monday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Rain. Slight chance of a thunderstorm. Areas of fog. South/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots.

Monday night - Tuesday...Becoming VFR by Tuesday morning. Patchy overnight fog may result in IFR/LIFR conditions. W winds 5-10 kts, increasing to 10 to 15 kts during the day with gusts to 20 kts.

Tuesday night - Wednesday...VFR, except for MVFR or lower possible in patchy overnight fog. Light W winds Tuesday night, shifting to SW 5-10 kts Wednesday.

Wednesday night...VFR. Light S winds.

Thursday...MVFR/IFR possible in scattered rain showers and isolated T-storms. SSW winds 5-10 kts.

MARINE

Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today through tonight. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed Monday. Showers developing tonight. Rain with a slight chance of thunderstorms Monday. Areas of fog today through Monday.

Wind gusts peak around 25 to 30 kts out of the SW with seas 6 to 7 ft early Monday night. Winds decrease below SCA criteria Monday night but seas remain elevated through Tuesday. Below SCA conditions Tuesday night through Thursday with light SW winds.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MEZ015>017- 029-030. MARINE...None.