textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Decreased the QPF for Saturday nigh due to uncertainty in the southern low track.

KEY MESSAGES

1) There is the potential for widespread rainfall from Sunday into Monday. It is not certain how much, if any, relief this could bring to the developing drought at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...There is the potential for widespread rainfall from Sunday into Monday. It is not certain how much, if any, relief this could bring to the developing drought at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure system approaches from the Great Lakes on Sunday, moving into Quebec by Monday. Additionally, a surface low pressure system slides along the coast on Sunday, bringing some additional moisture along the coast. Ensembles are still unsure on the track of the northern and southern low pressure systems. However, the models do agree on rain beginning late Saturday and continuing into Monday. Models continue to lack favorable instabilty for severe storms, with most atmospheric soundings just looking moist. PWATs roughly in the 1.75 range, which is above the 90th percentile for the daily high PWAT value around Caribou. Regardless, not anticipating relief from drought with these showers, as most model guidance is keeping precipitation totals modest. Convection along frontal boundary could result in some higher rain totals, but will need to monitor how regional models pick up on this system to see if environment will be favorable enough to support thunderstorms.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 00Z...VFR. WNW 5kts.

Tonight...VFR. Low confidence in BCFG/BR reducing vsby. Light and variable winds.

Friday...VFR. Light N-NW winds less than 5kt.

Friday night...VFR. Light NE winds.

Saturday: VFR. Rain begins to move into KBHB and KBGR Saturday afternoon. ESE winds 5-10 kts.

Saturday night-Sunday: MVFR/IFR in rain showers. Slight chance for thunderstorms Saturday night, and Sunday afternoon. E winds Saturday night at 5-10 kts, becoming SE on Sunday.

Sunday night-Monday: MVFR/IFR in rain showers. Slight chance for thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday afternoon. SE winds at 5-10 kts Sunday night, becoming SW on Monday.

MARINE

Winds below 15kts and seas below 3ft through Friday night. Visibilities may be reduced in fog each night.

Winds/seas remaining less than 25 kts/5 ft through Saturday, then a chance (about 20 percent) of winds or seas reaching 25 kts/5 ft Sunday/Monday. Fog likely the next few nights. Rain moves in Saturday, with a chance for thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.