textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Increased smoke coverage for the rest of the day and into early evening.

- Decreased QPF potential for Wednesday to Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Smoky skies the rest of the day Sunday will slightly reduce visibility and degrade air quality.

2) Rain moves in late tonight from west to east. Locally heavy rainfall may occur late tonight and Monday morning, but flooding is not expected.

3) Another round of rain Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as a cold front crosses the area.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Smoky skies the rest of the day Sunday will slightly reduce visibility and degrade air quality. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...Smoke over the area at present is coming mostly from wildfires way northwest of us in the Northwest Territories of Canada. Many models are not initializing the smoke at all, most likely because of its trajectory coming from extremely far north in northern Canada, which is beyond the domain for many models. An exception is the ECMWF, which is handling the smoke very well. The ECMWF has the smoke mostly exiting to the east by midnight tonight.

For the rest of the afternoon and evening, look for hazy skies and a slight smell of smoke, with air quality at moderate levels. The thickest smoke is above the ground, but a bit of smoke is making it to the ground. Don't expect the full extent of the smoke to mix to the ground though, as the afternoon mixing from aloft today is fairly limited.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain moves in late tonight from west to east. Locally heavy rainfall may occur late tonight and Monday morning, but flooding is not expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A soaking rainfall is in store for many areas. Though there could be a few light showers or sprinkles late this afternoon and early this evening, the soaking rain kicks in around dawn Monday. The rain could be fairly heavy at times especially from about 5am to noon. The rain becomes a bit more off and on and showery in nature later in the day and into Monday evening. There could be an embedded rumble of thunder Monday, but most of the instability is aloft and don't expect anything remotely strong. For rainfall totals from early Monday through Monday evening, feel pretty confident in at least one quarter inch for most areas. However, pinpointing the heavier axis of rain where up to around an inch could fall is a bit tougher, as models are still in poor agreement. In general, look for one quarter to three quarters of an inch of rain around the area with local amounts around an inch. This won't be enough to cause flooding. Rain begins tapering off for good late Monday night, though we could have some fog developing.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Another round of rain Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as a cold front crosses the area.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... As the low pressure system exits over the Maritimes, the next low pressure system centered over the Hudson Bay begins to track E. The associated cold front is expected to move into the region Wednesday evening and exit Thursday afternoon. Ensemble models have been trending towards a drier solution with isolated showers. Little QPF is expected with these showers. There is a possibility for a few rumbles of thunder but nothing severe.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Today-Tonight...VFR through this evening, with a small chance (25 percent) of MVFR visibilities down to 5SM at times due to wildfire smoke. MVFR/IFR moving in from the west after 06z, with locally heavy rainfall possible at all terminals by 12z. S 5-10kts, gusting to 15 kts late tonight. LLWS possible late tonight.

Monday...MVFR/IFR in rain with locally heavy rainfall possible. S 5-15kts, gusting to 20kts. LLWS possible into early afternoon. An embedded thunderstorm is possible too, but not enough confidence to include in any TAFs.

Monday night: Mainly IFR or lower with fog developing. S wind 10 kts becoming light.

Tuesday: VFR, with MVFR possible in some showers north of KBGR. NNE winds 5-10KT, shifting to S winds throughout the day.

Tuesday night: VFR. Light and variable winds.

Wednesday-Wednesday night: VFR early, with increasing chance for MVFR/IFR for north terminals into the afternoon as isolated showers and thunderstorms move into the area. SW winds 5 to 10 kts.

Thursday: VFR. Winds W to NW at 5 to 10 kts.

Friday: VFR. W winds 5-10 kts.

MARINE

S wind increasing to 15-20 kts late tonight and Monday, with seas building to around 4 ft. Winds/seas decrease Monday night, but fog becomes likely.

Coastal waters could see marginal small craft advisory criteria Tuesday before winds and seas diminish once more Tuesday night. Rain late Sunday night into Monday could limit visibility at times.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029- 030. MARINE...None.