textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

-Increased snow amounts slightly based on dynamic setup for the low pressure system Wednesday afternoon

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front will bring rain/snow mix and gusty winds to mainly northern areas Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. This may create some travels difficulties during the Saturday evening commute.

2) Arctic air arriving late in the weekend will result in frigid temperatures and bitter cold wind chills to begin the first week of March.

3) Accumulating snow Wednesday into Wednesday night may impact travel conditions for the evening commute.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front will bring rain/snow mix and gusty winds to mainly northern areas Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. This may create some travels difficulties during the Saturday evening commute.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A large low pressure system in northern Canada will track ENE on Saturday, pulling a cold front across the region. Well above normal temps ahead of the front and the arctic air behind the front will create a rain/snow mix for precip. The mid level trof should keep precip mainly to the north through the afternoon. This is expected to be a quick moving system, so precip should end after midnight Saturday night. The snow ratios should be low making for wet, heavy snow. Thus the breezy winds should not create blowing snow.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Arctic air arriving late in the weekend will result in frigid temperatures and bitter cold wind chills to begin the first week of March.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Once the cold front exits the region, very cold arctic air will move in. By Sunday night, temps should reach into the teens below zero in the north and single digits above zero in the south. Continued breezy winds from the exiting low should drop wind chills to dangerous levels. This cold airmass is expected to stick around through the beginning of the week.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Accumulating snow Wednesday into Wednesday night may impact travel conditions for the evening commute.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... A low pressure system will cross the region on Wednesday, bringing another round of light snow across the CWA. Modest mid level lapse rates of around 7 C/km combined with small amounts of CAPE aloft will support a convective nature to this snow, helping squeeze out a few inches of snow across the Downeast region, with lesser amounts to the north. This snow will mostly fall during the late afternoon and evening hours on Wednesday, and could reduce visibility during the evening commute. Additionally, based on the coastal track of this low pressure system, enough warm air may wrap around the low center to create a mix of snow and rain near the coast, as high temperatures surge above freezing along the Coastal Downeast region.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Tonight...VFR conditions continue across all terminals. Winds will quickly decrease overnight, becoming light and variable.

Wednesday...VFR conditions continue through the day, beginning to trend towards MVFR late at Downeast terminals. SE winds 5 to 10 kts with a few gusts to 20 kts possible.

Wednesday night...Cigs trending towards MVFR/IFR in snow. Winds shifting SE at around 5 kts.

Thursday...MVFR north except briefly IFR in any snow showers. VFR south. W wind around 10 kt with high gusts.

Thursday night...VFR. WNW winds around 5 kts.

Friday...Friday...VFR. W wind around 5 kt.

Friday night...VFR. S winds 5-10 kts

Saturday...VFR south, MVFR/IFR north in snow showers. VFR dropping to MVFR south. S wind 10 to 15 kt. LLWS.

Sunday...MVFR in light snow. WNW winds 5-10 kts.

MARINE

Elevated seas will continue through the afternoon across all marine zones, with the intracoastals decreasing by this evening while coastal marine zones maintain seas 4 to 6 ft through around midnight tonight. Light freezing spray is likely overnight tonight. Gusts increase once more during the day on Wednesday with a snow and rain storm crossing the waters.

A SCA may be needed Wednesday evening for wind gusts up to 25 kt. A SCA may be needed again Saturday into Saturday night for gusts up to 25 kt. A SCA may need to continue Sunday and Monday with an increased chance for freezing spray as Arctic air moves in.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ052.