textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Confidence increasing in locally heavy snowfall rates over Downeast Wednesday afternoon and evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Minor coastal overwash possible at high tide this morning.

2) Winter storm possible over the weekend, with cold temperatures and gusty winds.

2) Locally heavy snowfall for Downeast on Wednesday afternoon/evening.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Minor coastal overwash possible at high tide this morning.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A strong low pressure system will exit to the northeast this morning after passing south of the Gulf of Maine and Nova Scotia overnight. Gusty winds over southern areas will be dying down throughout today as the pressure gradient relaxes and high pressure begins to build in from the west. The expansive wind field of the system has generated a large, long-period swell which will coincide with the highest tides of the month this morning. Waves up to 6 feet along the coast in combination with the high tide may result in some overwash at typically vulnerable areas along the coast such as Seawall road and Schoodic Point west. This is expected to pose a risk to pedestrians and motorists so exercise caution near the sea this morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Winter storm possible over the weekend, with cold temperatures and gusty winds.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Strong upper trof will be diving toward the northeast U.S. late in the week. At some point it will close off, though guidance disagrees on how fast and where this occurs. Too far east and the CWA misses out on significant snows while secondary cyclogenesis occurring in the Gulf of Maine could lead to significant accumulations of snow, along with very strong winds. Arctic air will follow behind the system as it heads east toward the Maritimes. Temps will drop to below normal leading to winds chills ranging from minus 15 to minus 30 Saturday night and Sunday night with wind chills below zero during the daytime hours.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Locally heavy snowfall for Downeast on Wednesday afternoon/evening.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Shortwave currently diving into nrn Ontario will drop twd the area through the middle of the week. As it does it looks to induce a weak sfc low along the coast Wednesday morning. Though this low will not have much moisture to work with as it drops into the area it should be able to tap into moisture from the Gulf of Maine. Guidance is indicating fairly steep low to mid-level lapse rates along with impressive amount of instability. In fact, the snow squall parameter is lighting up over Downeast Wednesday afternoon, leading me to believe that heavy snowfall may occur over this area. Strong omega in the dendrite layer also lends credence to locally heavy snowfall Wednesday afternoon, however this will depend on location of sfc low development.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Monday...VFR southern terminals. MVFR cigs expected at HUL this morning through early afternoon. 50% chance of MVFR cigs this morning at PQI and 30% chance at CAR. FVE is likely to stay VFR. N/NW winds 10 to 15 kts early, decreasing throughout the day. LLWS at BGR/BHB early.

Monday night...VFR but brief MVFR cigs possible at northern terminals. Winds becoming light and variable.

Tuesday...VFR. Winds light and variable.

Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR north with MVFR possible late at BHB due to light snow developing. Light winds, near calm.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...VFR/MVFR in light snow at terminals. Cannot rule out brief IFR vsbys in snow. NW 5-10 kts.

Thursday...VFR with MVFR possible northern terminals. NW 5-10 kts.

Thursday night-Friday...VFR/MVFR. WNW 5 kts becoming SSW 5-10 kts Friday morning.

MARINE

Winds decrease below gales early this morning on the coastal waters and below SCA conditions by tonight. Winds decrease below SCA conditions on the intra-coastal waters by mid-day today. A long period NE swell this morning, becoming S/SE this afternoon, with seas 6 to 9 ft today, then decreasing to below SCA conditions by Tuesday morning. Below SCA conditions on all waters Tuesday.

Winds and seas will remain below small craft levels through the day Wednesday. Winds increase to near 25kts Wednesday evening over the outer waters in cold advection, as low pressure moves east into the Bay of Fundy. Winds relax and remain below SCA levels beginning Thursday morning through the end of the week with seas remaining below 5 ft throughout the entire period.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ050-051. Freezing Spray Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ050>052. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ052.