textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Increased wind gusts behind FROPA this afternoon especially across the Central Highlands and Moosehead Regions.

- Introduced isolated-scattered snow showers tonight over the North as cold air advection increases.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Generally dry weather through early next week. Drought conditions will worsen.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Generally dry weather through early next week. Drought conditions will worsen.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A cold front will cross the forecast area this morning, and will be mostly moisture starved but there is some light showers. A prefrontal trof is exiting the Downeast coast this morning with rain showers. Isolated to scattered rain showers along the cold front this morning, however, rainfall amounts are likely to remain below a tenth of an inch, with no improvement to drought conditions. A second round of showers will follow, mostly in the north this afternoon as a 500mb trof pivots through the state. Small but non-zero CAPE of up to 150J/kg along with NW flow 300 to 320 degrees could result in some convective showers behind the front through the afternoon and into Friday evening. Unfortunately, another moisture starved system, resulting in minimal precipitation. This evening cold air advection will rapidly increase and 540 thickness line plummets to the Downeast coast along with the 1340 line. Any rain showers leftover will likely switch to snow showers and cannot rule out a dusting on cold grass surfaces.

High pressure returns through the weekend, keeping the pattern dry. Models are slowing a low pressure system to our west, now projecting primary and secondary FROPA to cross our CWA sometime late week. PWATs are 0.50-1.25", along with relatively dry RHs at the surface the precipitation would need to overcome. Overall, again, no improvement to drought conditions are expected with these showers.

Otherwise, the dry conditons is bad news for the ongoing water resources drought impacting the state. Much of Northern Maine, Central Highlands and Eastern Downeast Maine are experiencing only 50-75% of normal precipitation over the last 30 days. While in the last 14 days areawide is less than 90% of normal. Overall, 30 day Standardized Precipitation Index blend has the Northern 2/3rd of the CWA in the Moderate to Severe Dryness category, with portions of the Upper St. John Basin now dipping into the Extreme Dryness category.

There is 38 USGS streamflow gages across the CWA which remain dismal, with 29 out of the 38 ranked Much Below Normal (<10th percentile). USGS Groundwater sites continue to show struggling groundwater conditions, Clayton Lake and Millinocket are at Record Low (deep) conditions on record (33-35 years POR). Kenduskeag, Hadley Lakes and Calais all reporting Below to Much Below Normal conditions. Fort Kent is very low end of Normal conditions approaching slipping down into Below Normal conditions. Therefore, the US Drought Monitor continues the entire CWA in at least Moderate Drought (D1) with now 64% of the CWA in Severe Drought (D2), this has the potential to worsen through the weekend with continued precipitation deficits.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Tonight...VFR/MVFR. Isolated/scattered rain showers. Across northern areas southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming west/northwest 5 to 10 knots. Across Downeast areas, south/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Southwesterly/westerly low level wind shear regionwide through early morning.

Friday...VFR/MVFR north with scattered to numerous rain showers. VFR Downeast with isolated/scattered rain showers. Across northern areas, northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Across Downeast areas, southwest/west winds around 10 knots, becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Friday night-Saturday...VFR. NW winds 5 to 15 kts.

Saturday night-Monday...VFR. Light W winds Saturday night, shifting W/SW at 5 to 15 kts, with gusts up to 20 kts, Sunday and Monday afternoons.

Monday night-Tuesday...VFR. Winds light and variable.

MARINE

Small Craft Advisory in effect through 9AM this morning for the Intra-Coastal and Coastal Waters. SW winds 10-20kt with gusts up to 30kt. Seas 3-7ft with highest seas over the 15-25nm waters. SW winds are gusting 30-33kt over the 25-60nm waters this morning with 6-7ft seas. Expecting conditions to weaken this morning into midday till the cold front passes the waters. Expecting a wind shift to the NW this afternoon and quickly winds will be gusting 25-30kt across all the waters from shore out 60nm. Seas subside this afternoon to 2-4ft but build back to 3-6ft tonight. Over the waters 25-60nm a few NW gusts tonight into Sat AM may approach 35kt but prolonged Gales are not expected at this time.

Saturday afternoon the winds/seas will fall below SCA conditions on all the waters. Light W to SW winds and seas below 3 ft expected for the rest of this weekend. Winds/seas are expected to be below SCA conditions through midweek. Sea surface water temperatures range from 50-54F from the Downeast Coast out 60nm and to the Hague Line including Penobscot & Passamaquoddy Bays.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for ANZ050>052.