textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Areas of frost this morning, and possibly again Sunday night. Precautions should be taken to protect sensitive vegetation.

2) Afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible today for western portions of the area such as the Moosehead Lake area.

3) Much warmer Wednesday through Friday, with two dry days in a row areawide Wednesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Areas of frost this morning, and possibly again Sunday night. Precautions should be taken to protect sensitive vegetation.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Temperatures are starting out quite chilly with frost in quite a few areas. Frost is possible again Sunday night, but it'll be a bit tougher because of there being more clouds in general than Saturday night. Models in general have a NW/SE oriented area of mostly clear skies that pivots SW slowly through the night as low pressure moves offshore, but there is some uncertainty on where this clearer corridor sets up. The main frost risk is in this mostly clear corridor, and went a bit cooler than NBM in this region which has the best shot at setting up from roughly Clayton Lake SE to Danforth. However, due to lower confidence and due to existing frost/freeze headlines, held off on issuing anything for Sunday night for now. Expect even the coolest areas tonight to be a degree or two warmer than Saturday night, so doubt any freeze warnings will be needed, but we may need some frost advisories. After Sunday night, don't anticipate any more frost except for perhaps a few of the very coolest spots.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible today for western portions of the area such as the Moosehead Lake area.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Another upper level low pressure system dives south out of Quebec today. This system is not as potent or as cold as the one that brought significant rain and mountain snow to far Western Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont. However, it's taking a track a bit more east that will allow at least far western portions of our area to experience some showers. Can't rule out a few storms as well, and some could have small hail due to cold air aloft. That said, don't see any way any of the storms could reach severe levels. The risk is really only over far western portions of our forecast area, from the western North Woods to Moosehead Lake region to far S/SW Penobscot County perhaps as far east as Bangor. Areas further east will have much less instability and should be dry, with high confidence in no shower activity for places like Caribou, Houlton, Danforth, and Eastport. The showers over western portions of the area will be slow-moving and could drop some locally fairly heavy rain totals, perhaps up to around an inch. In general, though, totals should average around one quarter inch.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Much warmer Wednesday through Friday, with two dry days in a row areawide Wednesday and Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Wednesday will be the first day with really noticeably warmer temperatures, as highs should be in the mid 70s. Then Thursday and Friday look warmer still. Models have overall been trending a bit warmer for Thursday/Friday, with highs likely 75-85. Not expecting it to feel muggy though. A cold front could move into Northern Maine on Friday which may begin a cooldown and increase shower/storm chances in the north, but confidence is low on the timing of the cold front. High confidence in dry conditions areawide Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

This Morning...VFR. A 10 percent chance of brief shallow ground fog mainly at BGR or PQI before 12z.

This Afternoon...VFR. SHRA likely with VCTS possible at KGNR. VCSH likely at KBGR with a small (15 percent) chance of VCTS, mainly W/NW of the terminal. ESE winds around 5-10 kts at northern terminals. SSW winds around 10 kts developing at coastal terminals and KBGR with a sea breeze.

Sunday night...Mainly VFR, though a 30 percent chance of MVFR cigs at BGR and GNR. Light winds.

Monday-Tuesday...Mainly VFR, with very brief MVFR possible due to any isolated afternoon showers. Light and variable winds, then NW wind 5-10 kts on Tue.

Wednesday-Thursday...Mainly VFR. Light and variable winds, then WSW winds 5-10 kts Thu.

MARINE

Below small craft conditions through Wednesday with little if any marine fog. Thursday/Friday, a 30-40 percent chance of small craft SW winds.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Freeze Warning until 7 AM EDT this morning for MEZ002. Frost Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for MEZ005-006-010- 011-031. MARINE...None.