textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Lowered temperatures today by several degrees

- Increased risk of scattered thunderstorms mid to late week

KEY MESSAGES

1) Storms very early this morning will give way to widespread rain showers today ahead of cold front.

2) Above normal temperatures, at least 5 to 10 degrees above average, expected Tuesday through late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Storms very early this morning will give way to widespread rain showers today ahead of cold front.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A line of storms is moving northeast early this morning and will exit the state within the next few hours along a pre-frontal trough. Temps aloft have dropped enuf to warrant elevated instability moving over central and northern sections of the CWA, resulting in isolated storms in a broken line from the North Woods down through the Katahdin Region and into Washington County as of 06z. Expect this line to move into New Brunswick by 08z.

Low pressure is currently located between Montreal and Quebec City as of 06z with cold front approaching the international border. As low pressure moves into CWA early this morning, winds shift around from the north by 12z with sfc low located in the vicinity of the Bangor Region. Widespread showers will accompany the front and upper level trough through the area today. Given cloud cover and showery conditions, not expecting any instability to remain and will continue to mention just showers. These showers will exit the CWA this evening, leaving a dry and warm day on tap for Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Above normal temperatures, at least 5 to 10 degrees above average, expected Tuesday through late week.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... High pressure builds in behind the cold front exiting the area Sunday night which will lead to dry weather, mostly sunny skies, and warming temperatures through Tuesday. Temperatures will be around average on Monday before beginning to warm on Tuesday and remaining hot, likely in the 80s, through late week. Temperatures likely to be at least 5 to 10 degrees above normal with the highest temperatures currently expected towards the end of the week. The hot weather should also help to develop some isolated to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon beginning Wednesday and continuing through the end of the week.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Early this morning...IFR with potential -TSRA at BHB, HUL, PQI and CAR for the next 2 hours. ESE winds 5-10kts.

Today...IFR/LIFR for the first several hours in low cigs and light showers. Gradual improvement to MVFR this afternoon. Northern Aroostook terminals should improve to VFR mid-late afternoon. N winds 5-15kts gusting to 25kts northern terminals, with Downeast terminals becoming north this afternoon.

Tonight - Wednesday...VFR across all terminals. N/NW winds 5 to 10 kts, becoming light and variable each night.

Thursday...VFR at northern terminals, cigs trending towards MVFR/IFR from GNR/MLT south as rain showers, and possibly a thunderstorm, moves in. SSE winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts possible around KBGR.

MARINE

Generally below small craft advisory conditions on the coastal and intracoastal waters through Thursday. Brief gusts to 25 kts on the coastal waters possible tonight.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.