textproduct: Caribou

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Increasing confidence in rain amounts for the weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Additional rainfall expected today into the weekend, though amounts are still uncertain. The rainfall could help provide some drought relief.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Additional rainfall expected today into the weekend, though amounts are still uncertain. The rainfall could help provide some drought relief.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A low pressure system from the Great Lakes region tracks E this evening and tonight. This system helps develop a coastal low system, that will move NE along the New England coast. As of this update, models agree that a slow frontal system will move along the Gulf of Maine and into Downeast region this evening and tonight. Then as the low merges and intensifies, rain amounts increase across the south.

By Saturday, the low will track into the Gulf of Maine and progress NE into the Bay of Fundy. Ensemble and deterministic models show a better agreement with the track and timing, thus more confidence in rain amounts. Amounts are looking at a chance for 2.0-3.0 inches along the immediate coast, 1.0-2.0 inches in the interior Downeast, 0.5-1 inches in the Central Highlands and southern Aroostook, and 0.1-0.5 in northern Aroostook.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Tonight through Saturday...Decreasing to MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, due to rain, low ceilings, and chance for fog Downeast. Winds shifting to NE then increasing to 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 to 25 kts by Saturday afternoon.

Saturday night-Sunday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, due to rain. NW winds 5 to 10 knots, with gusts 15 to 20 knots possible during the afternoon.

Sunday night-Monday...VFR/MVFR, from a chance of rain showers in the north. Snow possible late Sunday night into Monday, but chance of snow reaching terminals is low at this time. W winds 5 to 10 knots, with gusts 20 to 25 knots possible.

Monday night-Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR in the north with rain showers during the afternoon. W winds, turning SW, at 5 to 10 kts.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR with possible isolated showers. WNW winds 5-10 kts.

MARINE

Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight through Saturday. Rain and patchy fog through Sunday. Winds and seas approach SCA criteria Sunday into Monday night. Seas 4-6 ft. Variable wind directions Saturday night, becoming W/NW on Sunday. Chance for some rain showers and patchy fog on Monday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.


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