textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 745 PM Update with the issuance of the 00z TAFs

- Increasing confidence in rain and gusty winds Wednesday night and Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain chances remain limited through midweek, accompanied by near to below normal temperatures. The next best chance for precipitation arrives Wednesday night into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain chances remain limited through midweek, accompanied by near to below normal temperatures. The next best chance for precipitation arrives Wednesday night into Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Shortwave energy should cross the region on Tuesday bringing cloud cover, and a slight chance of isolated showers, that will reduce high temps and increase low temps. Dry conditions with below normal low temps will continue into Wednesday night.

Global models are continuing to come into better agreement about a low pressure system passing to the north of Maine Wednesday night into Thursday, though there is still some uncertainty in the strength of the low. Global ensembles show precipitation moving in from the west Wednesday night and exiting by late Thursday night. These ensembles show a widespread rainfall of about 0.5 inches with some pockets of higher totals, though these rainfall estimates could change as we get closer to the event. Ensemble models also show increasing consistency in gusty southerly winds from the LLJ Wednesday night. This system will continue to be monitored for changes.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

This evening...VFR. NW winds 5 to 10 kts, with a few gusts to 20 kts possible.

Tonight...VFR. Patchy fog possible but chance is too low to include in any TAFs. NW winds 5 to 10 kts.

Monday...VFR under SKC. NW winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts.

Monday night-Tuesday...VFR with possible MVFR cigs at northern terminals late Monday night, becoming VFR Tuesday. WNW winds 5-10 kts with gusts to around 20 kts.

Wednesday...VFR in the morning, MVFR/IFR in the afternoon as rain moves in. S winds 5-15 kts.

Wed night-Thursday...MVFR/IFR for cigs/vsby due to rain. S winds 10-15 kts Wed night, then shifting to W winds 10-15 kts, with gusts up to 30 kts.

MARINE

Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels this afternoon through Wednesday. Winds are expected to be breezy from WNW for this period. Seas should remain 1-3 ft for all waters. By Wed night, winds should increase to SCA levels in the coastal, and possibly intercoastal, waters with possible gales in the outer waters. Seas expected to reach 6-10 ft in the coastal waters and 9-11 ft in the outer waters. By Thursday, winds and seas should decrease in the afternoon below SCA.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.