textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- A special weather statement has been issued for cold inland water temperatures

- A beach hazards statement has been issued for cold ocean temperatures combined with seas around 5 ft.

- Added in frost to north/northwest portions of the area Sunday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm air temperatures this weekend in the upper 60s to mid 70s may cause people to underestimate the dangers of the cold water temperatures.

2) Dry and breezy conditions this weekend may lead to some fire weather concerns.

3) Thunderstorms and very warm temperatures possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

4) Potential for frost Thursday night and Friday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm air temperatures this weekend in the upper 60s to mid 70s may cause people to underestimate the dangers of the cold water temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A warm weekend is in store for the area with temperatures reaching the low to mid 70s across much of the area and upper 60s along the coast. Combined with mostly sunny skies, this may cause people out recreating to underestimate the dangers of cold water as inland lake and river temperatures will be in the mid 40s while the ocean will be in the low 40s. The cold water temperatures can quickly cause hypothermia to anyone immersed in the water. Anyone on small boats, canoes or kayaks should plan accordingly if recreating this weekend and use extreme caution to avoid this threat. Paddle smart from the start and always wear your life jacket!

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry and breezy conditions this weekend may lead to some fire weather concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... On Saturday, RHs approach 30% over much of northern and central Maine with wind gusts of 20-25 mph which may lead to increased fire activity. The greatest risk is expected over eastern Aroostook where W/SW winds will contribute to a drying, downslope flow off the higher terrain to the west. There is less of a risk in the Bangor and Downeast region as winds become more southwesterly throughout the day, bringing moisture onshore to these areas.

Early Sunday, a cold front moves through with very little precipitation, gusty NW winds with gusts up to around 30 mph, coupled with RHs down to around 30% over the whole area will lead to increased fire risk again.

A third day in a row of dry conditions is expected Monday, with RHs to around 30, but winds will be fairly light, unlike Saturday/Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Thunderstorms and very warm temperatures possible Tuesday and Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... A lot of uncertainty for Tuesday and Wednesday. At upper levels, there will likely be ridging over the area. However, there is very likely to be a strong temperature gradient over the area. Most models have Northern and Eastern Maine near or just barely on the warm side of the front most of the time, but a significant minority of models bring the front south as a backdoor cold front, with significantly cooler temperatures. The position of this front will determine if and where there are thunderstorms. A frontal position on the north edge of the envelope, such as around the St John Valley, would mean temperatures soar into the 80s areawide with a strong/severe thunderstorm risk over the north. A frontal position on the south edge of the envelope, over central or SW Maine, could mean cool stable air and little if any thunderstorm threat. A general consensus solution is for the front being over the far north Tuesday with a storm threat over the north Tuesday, with the front shifting south some on Wednesday with a storm threat more over Downeast, and cooler temperatures in the north. But it's important to emphasize there is a ton of uncertainty. This is a situation to watch closely because if the thunderstorm threat transpires, storms could be strong or severe.

KEY MESSAGE 4... Potential for frost Sunday night, and again Thursday night and Friday night.

KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...

With the high pressure building in for Sunday night, there is a risk of patchy frost, mainly in north/northwest portions of the area where winds appear the lightest with the best decoupling.

Later in the week, fairly high confidence in much cooler, drier air moving in. This could lead to a frost threat both Thursday night and Friday night, depending on when and if the center of the surface high pressure moves over the area. The highest chance of frost (about 40 percent) will be over northern and northwest portions of the area, but we can't rule out the potential for frost further south toward the coast as well.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through Saturday...VFR. Isolated showers, mainly at southern terminals, through early tonight. Winds become light and variable tonight, increasing to 10 to 15 kts out of the W/SW by Saturday afternoon.

Saturday night...VFR with a 20% chance of MVFR at northern terminals in light showers. VCSH southern terminals. SW winds 5 to 10 kts.

Sunday...Mainly VFR, though could be MVFR at northern terminals (20% chance) before 15z. NW wind around 15 kts with gusts 25 kts.

Sunday Night to Monday Night...VFR. NW wind around 5 kts, shifting to the S.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Low confidence. Potential exists for thunderstorms either day. Highly uncertain on whether it will be VFR, MVFR, or IFR, but the greater probability of lower conditions is at northern terminals. W winds 5-15 kts eventually shifting to the N as early as Tuesday or as late as Wednesday night.

MARINE

Seas remain above SCA conditions through early Saturday morning on the intracoastal waters and through Sunday morning on the coastal waters. Winds below SCA criteria on all waters until Saturday afternoon, then SCA winds persist through Sunday morning.

On Sunday, winds/seas will be near or just below small craft levels. Then improving conditions Sunday night and Monday with conditions well below small craft on Monday. Tuesday/Wednesday, small craft SW winds appear likely, along with seas building to around 5 ft.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for MEZ029-030.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ052.