textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Increased chance for isolated rain showers Sunday afternoon

KEY MESSAGES

1) A warming trend is in store this weekend into early next week.

2) A drier pattern this weekend into early next week, including gusty winds Sunday into Monday that will further dry out the region.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A warming trend is in store this weekend into early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The upper level trough will finally, gradually exit to the east heading into this weekend. A broad ridge of high pressure will settle in its place. This will lead to a southwest dominant flow across our forecast area, advecting warm air into the region. The particular air mass that is entering the region will contain abnormally warm temperatures across the eastern half of the CONUS. For our area, at the northern end of the ridge, temperatures will rise above average by around 5 degrees or so. This may lead to temperatures into the low 70s across the region. If the departing upper level trough takes longer to shift east or the center of the incoming high pressure sets up further south, these temperatures may not warm as much. If the ridge that develops is stronger than currently projected, it may have a more dominant influence over our forecast area and temperatures could trend warmer than currently projected.

With the ridge remaining overhead into early next week, temperatures may remain in the 70s, particularly across Bangor and the Interior Downeast region. Daily cloud cover and precip chances will have a large influence on daily high temperatures as well. For Monday into Tuesday, the positioning of a warm front north of the CWA will determine how warm the northern half of the forecast area gets Monday and Tuesday. If the warm front stalls across Aroostook County, rain showers and cloudy skies could keep temperatures dampened, though temperatures may still lift into the upper 60s and remain above average. Without this cloud cover and rain, say the warm front stays well north of the CWA, the environment in the north will more closely match Downeast Maine.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A drier pattern this weekend into early next week, including gusty winds Sunday into Monday that will further dry out the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Skies will be mostly clear during the subsidence pattern into this weekend, with limited available atmospheric moisture as PWATs are forecast to be less than 1 inch, falling to less than a half inch by Sunday afternoon. Some fair weather cumulus may develop during Saturday afternoon, with a slight chance for some light rain showers in the north Saturday night. For Sunday into Monday, there exists the potential for rapidly dropping dewpoints resulting in relative humidity that could plummet below 30 percent, as forecast soundings show steep lapse rates and a deep pocket of dry air in the mid levels. This pattern could result in a few diurnally driven rain showers Sunday afternoon which would limit drying efforts, but by Monday the present air mass continues to dry out and the risk of showers continues to decrease.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Today...IFR north this morning, with mainly VFR for BGR/BHB, then all terminals improve to VFR by afternoon. Low Level Wind Shear early. S wind 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt.

Tonight...Generally VFR but MVFR is possible at times BGR/BHB. E to NE wind 5 to 10 kt.

Friday...Generally VFR. E to NR wind 5 to 10 kt.

Friday night...Generally VFR at all terminals, though some lingering MVFR possible at KBGR/KBHB behind recent rain. Winds light and variable.

Saturday...VFR across all terminals. SW winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts.

Sunday...Generally VFR across all terminals. Isolated -SHRA possible in the afternoon. W to NW winds 10 to 15 kts gusting 20 to 25 kts.

Sunday night - Monday...VFR. NW winds 5 to 10 kts.

MARINE

Winds/seas will increase to SCA levels later this afternoon through Friday.

Seas will begin to subside Friday night, though may remain above 5 ft outside of the intracoastals through this time. Winds increase once more this weekend, with gusts 25 to 30 kts by Saturday night and seas increasing to 5 to 7 ft, then winds and seas will decrease Sunday night into Monday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ050-051.