textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Significant rainfall is expected Thursday into Friday, which should be beneficial for the ongoing groundwater drought.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Significant rainfall is expected Thursday into Friday, which should be beneficial for the ongoing groundwater drought.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Today and Tonight: Although the more substantial rainfall arrives Thursday afternoon and evening, we are watching for some lighter rain starting today and continuing into tonight mainly in southern portions of the area. As of 2am Wednesday, light rain has moved into immediate coastal Washington County, and is moving northwest. This weak system will continue to move northwest through the morning, bringing some light rain primarily to areas along and south/east of I-95, where totals during the day today should generally be less than 0.25 inches where rain does occur. Rain chances today drop off once you get north of Houlton, though can't rule out some sprinkles midday/afternoon as far north as Caribou. The big change today is much more clouds than yesterday areawide, cooler temperatures, and higher relative humidities. Areas of light rain (generally less than 0.25 inches) persist tonight, mainly for southwest portions of the area from Bar Harbor to Bangor to Greenville. Some fog possible as well for these areas.

Thursday to Friday: Heavier rain moves in from the west Thursday afternoon. However, there is considerable uncertainty still in how far east the rain makes it by the end of the day Thursday. Some models bring rain east to the New Brunswick border by midday Thursday, while other models hold off the rain until Thursday evening along the New Brunswick border. There does seem to be a trend of slowing down the onset over far Eastern Maine, as the new 0z ECMWF and its ensembles which had been on the fast side have slowed down considerably. More confidence in the heavier rain picking up by day's end over western portions of the area from Bar Harbor to Bangor to Greenville. The rain will be heavy enough to cause significant ponding on roads for the afternoon commute on Thursday for western portions of the forecast area such as Bangor. Upper level low pressure will remain northeast of the Great Lakes Thursday night through Friday. The upper low will support a developing surface low across the Gulf of Maine Thursday night. The surface low should then lift north along the Maine/New Brunswick border later Thursday night through Friday. Expect rain across the entire forecast area Thursday night. The steadiest rains Friday will occur across eastern portions of the forecast area along the surface low track. The rain should then diminish Friday night with the surface low slowly exiting northeast across New Brunswick.

AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Rest of Tonight into Today...Worsening conditions from S to N. As of 6z, it's VFR areawide, but MVFR will move into the coast including BHB very soon, and BHB will go to IFR by 12z. The transition to MVFR and then IFR progresses inland later in the night and into the morning, eventually reaching FVE as an MVFR cig around 17z. There is about 3 hours of uncertainty in the TAF's onset time for MVFR and IFR cigs later tonight into today. Some -RA possible today especially BHB/BGR. S/SE winds around 10 kts today.

Tonight...IFR/LIFR areawide, mainly due to low cigs. SE wind 5-10 kts.

Thursday...IFR/LIFR through the day likely at BGR/BHB. Less confidence for northern TAFs from HUL N to FVE, where the day is likely to begin MVFR/IFR, but improvement to VFR is possible toward midday and into the afternoon. It's also possible these areas will remain MVFR. E/SE winds 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts.

Thursday night through Friday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Rain and patchy fog. Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming variable 5 to 10 knots Thursday night. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west/northwest Friday.

Friday night...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR. Rain tapering to showers. West winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday through Sunday...VFR/MVFR. A slight chance/chance of showers. West/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots Saturday. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots Saturday night. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west Sunday.

MARINE

E winds increase to small craft levels tonight and then to near gale levels Thursday. Maintained the gale watch for the waters from 25-60 NM, but lower confidence inside of 25 NM and kept just a small craft advisory there for now. Seas 3-7 ft today, building to 6-10 ft by late Thursday.

Small craft advisory conditions Thursday night into Friday. Conditions below small craft advisory levels Friday night into Saturday. Rain and patchy fog Thursday night into Friday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ052. Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for ANZ080-081.