textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Chance for snow Bangor and Downeast trending less for Friday night, with most likely snow staying south/west of Bangor and Bar Harbor.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Potential for light snow Bangor region and Downeast Friday night. If snow occurs, travel could be difficult Friday night/early Saturday.

2) Small potential for a Nor'easter Sunday night/Monday. If Nor'easter tracks close enough (not likely), snow and wind would occur.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Potential for light snow Bangor region and Downeast Friday night. If snow occurs, travel could be difficult Friday night/early Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A system passing just south of our area could graze our area with some light snow Friday night. However, models are trending a bit further south and now most solutions keep snow just south/west of a Bangor/Bar Harbor line. If snow gets into our area, worst case appears to be 2-4 inches mainly Bangor/Bar Harbor area, but based on model trends, trending QPF/PoP lighter and we are going for just a 40 percent chance of snow Bangor/Bar Harbor. Northern Maine should remain dry regardless.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Small potential for a Nor'easter Sunday night/Monday. If Nor'easter tracks close enough (not likely), snow and wind would occur.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... While the vast majority of models keep our land area cool and dry Sunday night/Monday, a few bring a potentially strong low pressure system close enough to give us impacts in terms of snow and wind. It still looks like places from Cape Cod south toward coastal Virginia have a better chance than our area at receiving wind/snow from this storm than us, but this is still plenty far out that models could still shift north and bring bigger impacts to us. But right now, only roughly 10-20 percent of solutions bring impactful wind/snow to Eastern/Northern Maine. That said, most models do have at least a fairly strong low pressure system tracking offshore, so even if the system doesn't bring snow to land, there could be an uptick in north/northeast wind especially over the waters and closer to the coast.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

This evening - Tonight...VFR/MVFR conditions tonight into tomorrow at northern terminals, and VFR at southern terminals. NW winds at 5-10 kts, with gusts 20-25 kts possible. Winds begin to relax overnight.

Thursday Thursday night...VFR. NW wind, becoming NE on Friday, at 5-10 kts. Gusts to 15 kts possible. Friday...Mainly VFR with N wind around 5 kts.

Friday night...VFR north, with about a 40 percent chance of MVFR south including BGR/BHB. Low confidence in the forecast and whether light snow can make it as far north as BGR/BHB with a storm passing to our south. N wind 5-10 kts.

Saturday through Sunday...Mainly VFR. N wind 5-15 kts.

Sunday night and Monday...Low confidence. Small potential (25 percent or less) of MVFR/IFR if a Nor'easter tracks closer, but most likely (75 percent chance) VFR will prevail. N wind around 10 kts, but low confidence and higher winds are possible if the Nor'easter tracks closer.

MARINE

Small Craft Advisory out for the outer waters this evening into tonight. Seas and winds go below Small Craft criteria Thursday evening. Light freezing spray possible early Thursday. Winds from the NW this evening into Thursday, shifting to the E Thursday evening.

Small craft NE winds expected Friday night/Saturday morning, with a 30 percent chance of gales. Light freezing spray also. Low confidence late Sunday into Monday, but there is about a 40 percent chance of NE winds then. Seas generally less than 5 ft until around Monday, when seas over 7 feet are likely.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ050-051.