textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Updated aviation discussion.

- Increased confidence in temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal through mid next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A significant warm up is expected through mid next week with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal

2) Increased potential for ice breakup on northern rivers next week due to well above normal temperatures

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A significant warm up is expected through mid next week with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Warm, moist southerly flow behind a warm front passing through the area will result in temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal through the middle of next week. Highs are expected to reach into the 50s across the north and 60s further south and are likely not to drop below freezing area wide throughout much of the week. The warmest day is expected on Tuesday. The ample warmth is likely to considerably deteriorate the remaining snowpack over the north.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Increased potential for ice breakup on northern rivers next week due to well above normal temperatures

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A prolonged period of above freezing temperatures is anticipated through the middle of the week, with above freezing temperatures Monday morning through at least the middle of the week. While rainfall amounts Sunday night into Monday alone are unlikely to initiate river ice breakup, the prolonged above freezing temperatures, even at night, combined with daytime highs in the 50s will be enough for increasing breakup potential over rivers such as the Allagash, Aroostook, and Saint John where ice remains. Fortunately ice on these rivers has rotted in place from the sides, top, and bottom over the last couple weeks, which combined with low river levels should mitigate potential impacts from ice jams. Nonetheless, those with interests along the Allagash, Saint John, and Aroostook Rivers should closely monitor potential for ice jams next week, particularly any spots that are most vulnerable each spring.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Today...Across northern areas, VFR this morning. VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR, this afternoon with rain developing. South/southwest winds around 10 knots, becoming northwest. Across Downeast areas, IFR/LIFR along along the coast this morning. Otherwise, VFR today. South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Tonight...Across northern areas, IFR/LIFR through early morning then MVFR/IFR. Rain mixing with snow then tapering to snow/rain showers. North/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots. Across Downeast areas, VFR/MVFR occasional IFR early, then MVFR/IFR. Rain tapering to showers. South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots. Southwesterly low level wind shear this evening into early Saturday morning.

Saturday...Across northern areas, MVFR/IFR early then VFR/MVFR. A slight chance of rain/snow showers. Across Downeast areas, occasional MVFR/IFR possible early with a slight chance of rain showers. Otherwise, VFR. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots regionwide.

Saturday night to Sunday: VFR. NW winds 5 to 10 kts becoming W/SW late Sunday.

Sunday night to Monday: VFR early, becoming MVFR/IFR with RA, possibly starting as a brief period of SN at northern terminals. S winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 15 kts.

Monday night: MVFR early, possibly improving to VFR first at southern terminals with -SHRA. W/NW winds 5 to 10 kts.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR but could decrease to MVFR late. N/NW winds 5 to 10 kts.

MARINE

Have issued a Small Craft Advisory for much of the waters, with the exception of the intra-coastal waters, from this evening into Saturday evening. A few wind gusts could approach small craft advisory levels on the intra-coastal waters. Rain likely tonight, with a chance of showers Saturday morning.

A few gusts towards Small Craft Advisory thresholds are possible for the coastal waters Saturday evening. Winds and seas below advisory thresholds are expected later Saturday night through Sunday. Gale force winds are likely Sunday night into Monday for all waters, along with low visibility in rain and seas up to 10 ft. Winds decrease below SCA criteria Monday night and seas decrease below SCA criteria by Tuesday afternoon.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ050-051.