textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

-Lowered temperatures during the day today based on frontal passage timing and latest CAM guidance. Temperatures are below or at freezing for a little longer in the north as a result, which could potentially cause a little longer of a period of mixed precipitation.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread wintry precipitation today, which will impact morning commute.

2) Another period of significant sleet is expected across Northern Maine, with some freezing rain and snow also possible Saturday night into Easter Sunday morning. Difficult travel is expected across northern areas Easter Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread wintry precipitation today, which will impact morning commute.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Great Lakes low pressure system approaches from the southwest. High pressure system to the north helped set up a cold air damming scenario over the state Thursday, leading to cold temperatures around freezing through most of the state. Low pressure system brings precipitation in the forecast region from west to east, starting as snow in most locations, and rain in areas above freezing. Associated mid-level warm front with aforementioned low pressure system lifts over the region through the day today, bringing some warmer mid-layer temperatures, transitioning snow over to sleet, sleet to freezing rain, and freezing rain to rain gradually throughout the day. Currently, sleet in the Central Highlands to northwest Aroostook county before sunrise. Sleet makes its way up to northern Aroostook around daybreak. Freezing rain moves from Bangor region and interior Downeast overnight, up to Central Highlands and southern Aroostook by daybreak, and up to northern Aroostook by afternoon. Everywhere transitions over to rain by later in the afternoon.

Snow that falls will be wet, and with sleet falling on top shortly after, resulting in a rough clean up process for northern regions. Snow and sleet mostly in the north for the morning commute, and a snow/sleet/freezing rain combination in the Central Highlands/Upper Penobscot Valley. Most of the sleet and/or freezing rain by Bangor and Bar Harbor should transition over to rain during commute, BUT anticipating slick travel until temperatures warm or rain erodes ice.

Event wide, snowfall around 3-5 inches in northern Maine. There is a chance for around 0.5 inches of sleet in the Aroostook and the Central Highlands region. 0.1 to 0.25 inches of ice possible in Central Highlands/Upper Penobscot Valley regions. Around 0.05 inches of ice possible in northern Maine. T 0.05 inches of ice possible as far down as the Downeast coast.

Temperatures slowly rise during the day as the warm front moves over the state. The coast and Bangor region reaches above freezing by the morning, transitioning fully over to rain. Temperatures should raise above freezing in the Central Highlands region by early afternoon, and above freezing in Aroostook county by early evening. Models have been trending towards a slower warm front, which could result in some longer period of mixed precipitation, predominantly in the north. Regardless, precipitation intensity starts to diminish overnight tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another period of significant sleet is expected across Northern Maine, with some freezing rain and snow also possible Saturday night into Easter Sunday morning. Difficult travel is expected across northern areas Easter Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... The setup for the next storm Saturday night/Sunday morning is very similar to today's storm, with a warm front lifting through the area and a surface low pressure tracking from west to east, passing to our north. The low pressure track is a bit further north than the present system, which will lead to slightly warmer temperatures than the present event, with a bit less snow at the onset in the north. The further north track should keep away wintry precipitation impacts away from the Bangor region and Downeast. The amount of precipitation, like the present system, will be heaviest in the north, which again is where most impacts are expected. Look for a little snow at the onset in the far north around midnight Saturday night, but with a quick changeover to sleet and then to freezing rain, and finally to plain rain as temperatures rise above freezing everywhere by early afternoon. Some uncertainty on sleet versus freezing rain, and tended to favor sleet over freezing rain for much of the time. Also some uncertainty on precipitation totals. But overall, higher confidence than usual for a system like this at this time range. Only 1-3 inches of snow/sleet in the north mainly from Mars Hill north, but a decent chunk of that could come as sleet, which could approach 1 inch in some areas which is quite impactful to travel. Freezing rain totals up to about a quarter inch are possible, which wouldn't be enough for power outages but would make for slick travel. Much better travel conditions develop from south to north as temperatures rise above freezing during the day Sunday. Cooler air starts moving back in Sunday night, but not anticipating roads refreezing on the back side of the system.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Today...IFR/LIFR conditions early today, with mixed precip changing to RA from south to north through the day. Becoming MVFR/IFR in the evening as ceilings begin to raise. S to SE winds 5-15kt.

Tonight...IFR conditions north becoming MVFR, with MVFR becoming VFR at southern terminals. VCSH/-SHSN possible at northern terminals. Wind shift expected between 05-08Z. Winds SW 5-15kt gusting up to 20kt, shifting to the N-NNW 10-15kt.

Saturday...Mostly VFR. MVFR ceilings possible at northern terminals. N winds 5-10kt shifting E in the early evening.

Saturday night to Sunday: VFR early, becoming IFR/LIFR with +PL at northern terminals, mixing with SN at the onset and FZRA Sunday AM before changing to -RA. -PL at central and southern terminals changes to -RA late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. All -RA is expected at coastal terminals such as BHB. SE winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 30-35 kts possible. LLWS possible.

Sunday night: MVFR possible at northern terminals, otherwise VFR. WSW winds around 10 kts gusting to 20 to 25 kts.

Monday: Low VFR ceilings, with a chance of MVFR at northern terminals. WNW winds around 15 kts with gusts to 25 to 30 kts.

Monday night to Tuesday: VFR. NW winds 5 to 15 kts.

MARINE

Small Craft criteria over the outer waters through the weekend, and for the intra-coatals through Saturday morning. Rain and patchy fog over waters this morning. Rain continues until the evening. SE winds, shifting S/SW by Friday evening. Shift to the NW late Friday night, and to the E by Saturday evening.

Small Craft Advisory winds and seas are expected Saturday night through Monday evening. Gale force winds are also possible (75 percent chance over outer waters, 50 percent over the intracoastal waters) later Saturday night into Sunday morning. Winds and seas generally below advisory levels Tuesday into mid- week.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for MEZ001- 002. Winter Weather Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for MEZ003>006-010-011-031-032. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for MEZ015>017-029-030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ052.