textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered to numerous showers and storms this afternoon and early this evening in Northern Maine.

2) Areas of dense fog possible again tonight (Monday night). Any fog would impact travel conditions.

3) Chance of showers and thunderstorms from Bangor north Tuesday.

4) Thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening, some of which may be strong with gusty winds and small hail.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered to numerous showers and storms this afternoon and early this evening in Northern Maine.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Some showers and storms (40-60 percent chance of showers, 15-30 percent chance of storms) the rest of this afternoon into early evening over Northern Maine. Anticipate areas from Bangor south/east remaining dry due to too much of a marine influence. Best shot at a couple stronger storms is over the North Woods, where a couple storms could bring some gusty winds and small hail. So far activity has been quite unimpressive, but the dynamics improve some in the mid to late afternoon as an upper level shortwave approaches from the southwest. Activity will quickly dissipate after dark.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Areas of dense fog possible again tonight (Monday night). Any fog would impact travel conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Areas of fog appear likely again tonight thanks to light winds and a decent amount of low-level moisture. There may be a slightly later onset to the fog in the evening this evening compared to last night as we have a bit of breeze this afternoon that still needs to come down, but still think the fog could be locally dense by later tonight. The best chance of dense fog is near the Downeast coast, though dense fog is possible anywhere.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Chance of showers and thunderstorms from Bangor north Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... More showers and storms could occur Tuesday afternoon for everywhere except right near the coast, with a 30-50 percent chance. With colder air aloft and an upper trough moving through, some of the storms could have some small hail. Not expecting anything severe though.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening, some of which may be strong with gusty winds and small hail.

KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION... A cold front crosses the area Friday afternoon and evening on the leading edge of a full latitude trough pushing into the region, with the added support of a northern stream shortwave pushing through the trough around that time. With the potential for 500-1500 J/kg of instability and 25-35KT of bulk shear, there is a risk of some locally strong thunderstorms ahead of the front, with the main threat expected to be strong gusty winds. The greatest chance for storms is likely to be concentrated over northern and central areas while more southern areas are likely to remain too stable due to southerly flow.

AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Today...Mainly VFR this afternoon. VCSH/-SHRA at northern terms. PROB30 for northern terms (FVE,CAR,PQI) for -TSRA this afternoon. S winds 5-10kt with gusts up to 15kt.

Tonight...VFR becoming MVFR/IFR cigs with BR/FG developing and possible LIFR/VLIFR vsby. Not quite as high of confidence of the low cigs/vsby as last night, but still confident enough to bring all TAF sites down to some degree. Highest confidence in low cigs/vsby is at BHB. Winds light and variable.

Tuesday...Chance of IFR/LIFR early Tuesday AM at all terms in low cigs and/or FG. VFR mid morning into the afternoon. MVFR or lower possible in any stronger convection north of KBGR in the afternoon. SW winds 5-10kt, gusty winds in any storms possible.

Tuesday night...VFR early, possibly becoming IFR/LIFR in fog and low clouds, but confidence is low. Light and variable winds.

Wednesday...VFR. Possible MVFR vsby due to -SHRA in the afternoon at KFVE/KCAR/KPQI. W winds around 5kt.

Wednesday night...VFR. Light and variable winds.

Thursday...VFR. S winds 5-15kt with gusts up to 25kt. LLWS possible late afternoon.

Thursday Night...VFR, becoming MVFR/IFR with -SHRA developing. S winds 5-10kt. LLWS possible.

Friday: MVFR/IFR in showers and thunderstorms. S winds 5-10kt with gusts up to 20kt possible.

MARINE

Winds and seas below SCA criteria through Friday. Seas 2 to 4 ft with S/SW winds. Fog likely through Tuesday night. Thunderstorms possible Friday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.