textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Thunderstorms ongoing in the North Woods region will diminish over the next couple of hours.

- Reduced thunderstorm coverage across northern Maine on Friday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled conditions into Friday with chances of rain and few storms.

2) Unsettled weather and a gradual warming trend from Friday into the middle of next week, with chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms nearly every day.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled conditions into Friday with chances of rain and few storms.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... At the surface, troffing will persist across the region into tonight. Aloft, a disturbance in advance of low pressure across the Great Lakes will cross the region rest of today. With support from the surface trof, upper level disturbance and diurnal heating scattered showers along with isolated/scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop across the Central Highlands and Bangor Region this afternoon. Not expecting any significant concerns but brief heavy rain, pea size hail and some cloud to ground lightning is the main concerns. Latest radar image as of 2PM shows the storms developing over the western Maine mountains. Expecting isolated to scattered coverage over the next 1-3hrs. The Great Lakes system will approach tonight keeping a chance of showers across the forecast area. The surface/upper system then begins to cross the region Friday with steady rain mainly impacting the northern 1/2 of the CWA with 0.25-0.5 inch of rain. Could also have the slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. Hi-Res cams continue to show some instability behind the rain working into the Bangor Region but confidence is low on how quick the atmosphere can recover and destabilize again.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather and a gradual warming trend from Friday into the middle of next week, with chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms nearly every day.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A fairly wet weather pattern persists from Saturday into the middle of next week. While we probably won't see any well defined weather systems, persistent NW flow aloft around the east side of an upper level ridge, coupled with a fairly moist airmass, will allow for a chance of afternoon showers and storms pretty much every day Saturday to Wednesday. This will be the type of situation where we are unlikely to get any all-day rains, but there's a decent chance of a brief interruption in outdoor activities any day in the afternoon hours. While we can't rule out a few severe storms, most of the storms in this sort of pattern will be more run-of-the-mill. If any day were to see a break in the afternoon showers/storms, it would be Monday, but most other days, the chance looks to be 30-60 percent that any spot would see measurable rain at some point during the day any day.

Temperatures this weekend will be close to average with highs in the 70s, and potentially some low 80s Downeast Sunday, but then we warm a bit from Monday to Wednesday. There is some uncertainty just how warm we get, but at least low to mid 80s seems like a fairly safe bet, with nighttime lows becoming mild with upper 50s to mid 60s. It will be a bit muggy too, making it feel rather uncomfortable.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Tonight...VFR becoming MVFR, with possible IFR at northern terminals at daybreak. -SHRA/RA developing late tonight with BR. S-SE winds 5kt.

Friday...IFR due to -RA becoming VCSH/-SHRA, with pockets of MVFR. MVFR cigs may linger at BGR and BHB for most of the day. S-SE winds 5-10kt.

Friday Night...VFR/MVFR. IFR/LIFR vsby possible due to BR/FG. Light and variable winds.

Saturday-Tuesday: Areas of MVFR/IFR in the overnight and early morning hours, and generally VFR midday to evening hours. Best chance of overnight and early morning MVFR/IFR is closer to the coast, but the possibility will exist anywhere. Winds will be less than 10 kts. There will be a chance of afternoon showers and storms every day.

MARINE

Winds/seas below SCA across the Intra-Coastal and Coastal Waters through Friday night. On the waters 25-60nm winds less than 15kt and seas less than 4ft. Fog across all the waters may reduce vsby especially at night and rain showers at times. Conditions should easily stay below 25 kts/5 ft Saturday through Tuesday. Marine fog will likely be an issue, especially in the overnight and early morning hours.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.