textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

-Thunderstorm chances today primarily in the north.

-Smoke moves through from the northwest, to the southeast, this morning into the afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lower temperatures and less humidity today.

2) Isolated thunderstorms in the north today. A conditional threat for severe storms exists.

3) A Beach Hazards Statement was issued for Saturday for cold coastal water temperatures.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Lower temperatures and less humidity today.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Shortwave and cold front move through the region today. Northwesterly winds keep effects of any seabreeze to a minimum along the coast. Temperatures in the mid-70s in the north, mid-80s in central Maine, and upper-80s and low-90s along the coast. Relative humidities generally in the 40s.

Smoke from Canadian wildfires makes its way down into Maine as well, which could act as cloud cover to keep temperatures cool in the north. Smoke generally moves along the cold front, from northwest to southeast this morning into afternoon. Air quality Alerts in effect through Sunday for reduced visibility and degraded air quality.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Isolated thunderstorms in the north today. A conditional threat for severe storms exists.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Cold front moves through the region today which could provide some lift for isolated thunderstorms. Kept thunderstorm potential at slight chance, and predominantly to the north, as mid-level lapse rates and shear are mediocre. Low level lapse rates, CAPE, and DCAPE continue to look favorable, but convection is really going to depend on forcing. If smoke lingers around in the north and prevents any diurnal heating, this could work against any convection. Storms seem to have the best chance to produce lightning and some gusty winds.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A Beach Hazards Statement was issued for Saturday for cold coastal water temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... With the July 4th Holiday and crowds heading towards the coast and water and above normal temps continuing, the cold Gulf of Maine/Atlantic Ocean water temps will create a high risk for hypothermia. Use caution if on the water and use a life jacket on any watercraft.

AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Saturday...Mainly VFR though tempo IFR at PQI in patchy fog for the first hour this morning. Chance for some wildfire smoke to move through terminals, from northwestern Maine in the morning, to Downeast Maine by afternoon, which could briefly reduce visibility. Outside chance of MVFR in light rain showers in northern Aroostook terminals, with a potential for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon but confidence too low and coverage too isolated to include in terminal forecasts. NW winds gusting 15-20 kts this afternoon.

Tonight-Sunday...VFR with light NW winds around 5kts, becoming N on Sunday.

Sunday night-Monday night...VFR. May see patchy fog at PQI, HUL terminals late Sunday night. Light and variable or near calm winds, with sea breeze developing southern terminal Monday afternoon.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR, though may se MVFR BHB and coastal Downeast terminals in -shra. S winds 5-15kts in the afternoon.

Tuesday night-Wednesday...Mainly VFR, though may see MVFR/IFR Downeast terminals in for late Tue/early Wed. S winds 5-10kts.

MARINE

Conditions below SCA criteria today into Sunday. Seas generally around 2-3ft. Potential for some fog early this morning, and tonight into Sunday morning. NW winds today, shifting N tonight, and SW by Sunday. Water temperatures remain around 50.

Seas and winds will remain below small craft levels through the middle of next week. Seas will begin to climb toward 5ft 25-60NM Tuesday evening with wind gusts between 5-15kts. Patchy fog will reduce visibilities over the waters at night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Sunday night for MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...None.