textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Confidence increasing in significant precipitation Tuesday and Tuesday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Significant precipitation is expected Tuesday and Tuesday night, with light wintry precipitation possible over north/northwest areas. The wintry precipitation is not expected to impact travel, and flooding is not expected.

2) Light rain possible Downeast tonight and light rain likely in the north Monday.

3) Widespread rain is likely again Friday/Friday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Significant precipitation is expected Tuesday and Tuesday night, with light wintry precipitation possible over north/northwest areas. The wintry precipitation is not expected to impact travel, and flooding is not expected.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure across the Great Lakes will draw a warm front toward the region Monday night through early Tuesday. Overrunning precipitation in advance of the warm front will develop across the region during the day Tuesday. Precipitation should generally be in the form of rain. However, dependent on the onset time, just enough cold air could across northern areas and the Central Highlands should support an interval of snow or a rain/snow mix during the day Tuesday. This will mainly be from Presque Isle and Greenville north. Accumulations will be minimal for most places if there is any at all and travel impacts are not anticipated. There could be up to 3 inches mainly at higher elevations of the North Woods. Temperatures slowly warm into Tuesday night and we anticipate all areas changing to rain.

Fairly significant precipitation is expected areawide, with generally 0.5 to 1.25 inches of total precipitation. Flooding is not expected, but this will help with drought conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Light rain possible Downeast tonight and light rain likely in the north Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... The remnants of Isaias track south of the Gulf of Maine tonight. The northern edge of the precipitation shield should clip Downeast areas tonight, but totals look quite light with one tenth of an inch or less, and mainly south of Bangor. Then during the day Monday, a cold front will then cross the area from north to south with light rain likely mainly north of Bangor for a few hours as the front moves through. Totals will be around a tenth of an inch. Temperatures will fall behind the cold front, with readings falling into the 40s in the north in the afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread rain is likely again Friday/Friday night.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... An active weather pattern will remain, with another low pressure system passing through the area from west to east around Friday/Friday night. This is still a lot of uncertainty, but it does appear very likely most places will get at least 0.25 inches of precipitation, with some places exceeding 0.50 inches. Winds and wintry precipitation are both possibilities depending on the track of the system, but are not likelihoods at this point...just something to keep an eye on.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Rest of Today...VFR. South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Tonight...MVFR with a chance of rain possible late Downeast. Otherwise, VFR. Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Westerly/southwesterly low level wind shear possible.

Monday...MVFR/VFR cigs, with a few hours of light rain likely at Aroostook terminals. Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest/north.

Monday night...Mostly VFR. Northeast/east winds 5 to 10 knots.

Tuesday through Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Rain. Rain possibly mixed snow Tuesday across northern areas. East/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Tuesday. Southeast/south winds 10 to 15 knots Tuesday night.

Wednesday...MVFR/VFR with isolated to scattered showers. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Wednesday night through Thursday...VFR/MVFR. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots.

Friday...MVFR/IFR possible in rain, and possibly wintry precipitation in the north. Windy conditions possible, but high uncertainty in speed/direction.

MARINE

Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today into Monday. Small craft advisory conditions then expected Monday night into Thursday. Gale force wind gusts possible on the outermost waters Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Rain tonight into Monday, then again Tuesday into Wednesday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.