textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 6 AM Update to Aviation section with issuance of the 12z TAFs

- 4 AM Update: Small craft advisory has been allowed to expire.

- Confidence is still low in the track of the coastal system this weekend. But confidence increased in the low development.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered rain showers continue across Northern Maine today, with a few snow showers possible early this morning and late this evening, and another chance for snow showers in the north Tuesday night.

2) Potential for coastal storm development in the later part of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered rain showers continue across Northern Maine today, with a few snow showers possible early this morning and late this evening, and another chance for snow showers in the north Tuesday night

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... For this morning, a weak surface trough remains across southern Maine through the Coastal Downeast region which could support some light rain showers this morning, prior to further dissipating and drier conditions returning for Downeast through the rest of the day today. In the north, a 700 mb vort max over the St John Valley will provide enough lift that, combined with elevated moisture levels, will support continued rain showers through the day today. Early this morning, min temperatures around freezing could allow for a few of these showers to contain snowflakes, but marginal enough that no measurable snow accumulation is expected. Temperatures lift into the 40s through the day keeping precipitation rain. This evening, as temperatures begin to drop to around freezing once more, any lingering showers could once again see some snowflakes mixing in, with no accumulation expected.

A narrow ridge of high pressure allows for a brief pause in showers for the CWA during the day on Tuesday, before the next shortwave late Tuesday will bring more showers into the area, particularly across the north into Tuesday night. With temperatures below freezing once more, some light snowfall is possible Tuesday night across the northern half of the forecast area. That said, there still remains some uncertainty with this system, depending on how quickly temperatures drop and how quickly this next low pressure system moves into the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Potential for coastal storm development in the later part of next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Large amounts of uncertainty remain with the low pressure system developing in the Mid-Atlantic and moving up the coast this weekend. Confidence has increased in a low pressure system developing over the Ohio Valley, then intensifying as it moves E towards the Mid-Atlantic. Confidence has also increased in cooler temperatures with the system from Friday throughout the weekend. Highest uncertainty remains in the track of the low and the impacts that go with it. Any small variation in the track could greatly change the impacts of the system.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Today: - At KBGR and Downeast terminals...Generally VFR through the day, though brief MVFR cigs possible late this morning into early this afternoon. SW winds around 5 kts this morning shift NW 10 to 15 this afternoon.

- At Northern terminals...MVFR/VFR early, becoming MVFR through the day with briefly lower vis possible in any rain showers. W winds 5 to 10 kts increasing to 10 to 15 kts this afternoon.

Tonight-Tuesday: - At KBGR and Downeast terminals...VFR, decreasing towards MVFR later Tuesday with showers moving in from the W. NW winds 5 to 10 kts.

- At Northern terminals...MVFR cigs continue. NW winds 5 to 10 kts.

Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR in any lingering snow showers in the north and rain showers in the south. Light and variable winds.

Wednesday...VFR. WNW winds 5-10 kts.

Wednesday night-Thursday...VFR. Light and variable winds.

Thursday night...VFR north, MVFR south in rain/snow. Uncertainty is high in the timing of the precip. Light and variable winds.

Friday...MVFR/IFR in rain for the south and snow for the north. Uncertainty is high on the precip timing. N winds 5-10 kts.

MARINE

Winds and seas continue to decrease this morning, with winds falling below 20 kts and seas down to 2 to 4 ft through the day today. Marginal small craft advisory conditions return tonight on the Coastal waters out to 25 NM with wind gusts approaching 25 kts and seas 3 to 5 ft, but conditions quickly improve into Tuesday morning.

W-SW winds are expected to increase across the coastal and outer waters reaching up to 30 kts Tuesday night. Winds should decrease again by Wednesday and remain below SCA levels. By Friday morning, both winds and seas will increase with the approaching coastal system.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.