textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread soaking rain today. This will aid in mitigating ongoing drought conditions across portions of the region.

2) Showers likely with possible thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening over Northern Maine.

3) Cooler temperatures Wednesday through the weekend, with fairly unsettled weather likely continuing.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread soaking rain today. This will aid in mitigating ongoing drought conditions across portions of the region.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A cold front will cross the area during the day on today, bringing a wetting rain across the region. Total rainfall amounts will be highest along the coast as a coastal low develops along the surface trough. Overcast skies and increased moisture will limit evaporation and add to the surface moisture likely improving ongoing drought conditions. Rain will end W to E around sunset today. Given the rainfall and with diminishing winds, patchy valley fog is possible tonight mainly in valley locations.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers likely with possible thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday evening over Northern Maine.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Confidence continues to increase in a quick moving cold front moving across the region Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. High-res models show more agreement with the majority of shower sticking to the northern areas on the state. Upper air model soundings indicate instability with more bulk shear driven thunderstorm development. Weak CAPE and mid level lapse rates should dampen the development of severe thunderstorms. Thunderstorm potential will decrease towards sunset due the the lose of daytime heating.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Cooler temperatures Wednesday through the weekend, with fairly unsettled weather likely continuing.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... The pattern from Wednesday onward will feature cooler north to south upper level flow from Quebec south into the Northeast US, with a blocking pattern keeping the general pattern in place. Individual upper level low pressure systems will be rotating north to south through the region, bringing chances of showers, though these individual systems will be rather tough to time and track. In general, look for at least a chance of showers each day Wednesday through the weekend, with the better shower chances coming in the midday to afternoon hours. Friday/Saturday has the best chance to have more significant shower coverage, though uncertainty is high.

Temperatures will be cooler than average, and potentially much cooler than average, especially from Thursday to Sunday. The NBM 10th percentile of high temperatures each day is around 50 degrees, meaning if any one of these days ends up on the wetter side, this is what we could end up seeing for highs. A safer bet is generally high temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Nights could be cool enough for frost for any of the nights from Thursday night to Saturday night, though we will be battling fairly unsettled conditions and for frost to form we would need a night with some clearing skies. The chance for seeing patchy frost on at least one of the nights Thursday night to Saturday night is around 40 percent in the north and around 15 percent Downeast. We also can't rule out a little high elevation snow in this weather pattern.

AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Today...Any remaining places not already IFR will deteriorate to IFR by 15z. High confidence in IFR or low MVFR conditions through the day. LLWS for all terminals this morning and should decrease by this afternoon. SSE winds 5-10 kts.

Tonight...Rain will have exited by 0z, but there is low confidence on conditions tonight, mainly due to uncertainty in SCT vs BKN low clouds. Feel that low clouds will likely be lingering tonight, but uncertain of SCT vs BKN. In reality, many terminals could fluctuate between IFR and VFR. Light and variable winds.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with possible lowering conditions in rain showers and possible thunderstorms in northern terminals late afternoon. WSW winds 5-10 kts.

Tuesday Night...MVFR possible from HUL north in showers and possible storms mainly in the evening. Likely VFR BGR/BHB. SW wind 5 kts.

Wednesday to Friday...Mainly VFR BGR/BHB and MVFR or VFR HUL/PQI/CAR/FVE. Showers possible. NW wind 5-15 kts with higher gusts during the day.

MARINE

A Small Craft Advisory in effect for the Coastal Waters out 25nm from this morning till 8AM Tuesday. SE winds 10-20kt with gusts up to 30kt and seas building to 5-8ft. On the intra-coastal waters the Small Craft Advisory is in effect from late this morning till 2AM Tuesday. Southeast winds 10-20kt with gusts up to 25kt and seas 3-6ft.

Winds relax to generally less than 25kt across the waters Tuesday AM through late week. Seas subside towards 1-3ft by mid to late week.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ052.