textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Adjusted overnight shower/thunderstorm chances.

- Updated aviation discussion.

- Included patchy fog on all the waters overnight into Tuesday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms tonight through Tuesday, with some locally heavy rainfall possible. Surface smoke possible tonight.

2) A round of widespread showers and thunderstorms expected Thursday throughout much of the day. A strong storm or two is possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms tonight through Tuesday, with some locally heavy rainfall possible. Surface smoke possible tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Scattered showers will continue to build through the early evening hours, mainly across the north. A front will cross the area late tonight, bringing scattered rain showers and the possibility for a few thunderstorms. Any stronger showers and storms could lead to locally heavier rainfall.

The progressive synoptic pattern has the potential to usher in wildfire smoke aloft, with brief ridges providing enough subsidence that this smoke could push towards the surface, particularly this evening prior to the next front which could clear the area out once more.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A round of widespread showers and thunderstorms expected Thursday throughout much of the day. A strong storm or two is possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A wave of upper level energy is expected to approach our area from the west Wednesday night and develop low pressure at the surface which will move into our area Thursday bringing a round of widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some areas could see a soaking rain based on where the strongest storms set up. Still uncertain right now as guidance is expressing some uncertainty in the position of the low pressure system but the North has the greatest chance with the likelihood of at least 0.5" of rain around 30%. Around 30-35 kts of deep-layer wind shear is expected with at least several hundred J/kg of instability, although some models show 1000-1500 J/kg. Certainly something to watch for rainfall potential and storm threat.

AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Overnight: VFR/MVFR late this evening, then VFR/MVFR occasional LIFR. Isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms late this evening, then scattered/numerous showers and thunderstorms. Light and variable winds.

Tuesday: VFR/MVFR early, then generally VFR. Isolated/scattered showers early. Scattered/numerous showers and thunderstorms north, isolated/scattered Downeast, during the afternoon. Variable conditions with any showers/thunderstorms. West/northwest winds around 10 knots, becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots.

Tuesday night-Wednesday: VFR. Winds W at 5-10 kt.

Wednesday night-Thursday: MVFR/IFR in showers and T-storms. Winds W/SW at 5-10 kt.

Thursday night-Friday: Lingering MVFR, especially at northern terminals in showers or isolated T-storms. NW winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts.

Saturday: VFR. NW winds 5-15 kts.

MARINE

The waters out to 60nm should see sustained winds of 15 kt or less and seas of 3 ft or less through Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms could impact the waters tonight. Patchy fog overnight into Tuesday morning.

Winds and seas below small craft advisory criteria on the coastal and intracoastal waters Tuesday night-Friday. Seas peak at 5 to 6 ft on the outer waters Friday. A chance of showers and thunderstorms over the waters Thursday into Thursday night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.