textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

-Reduced thunder to slight chance on Sunday.

-Dropped weekend daytime highs down a few degrees.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled conditions today into Friday.

2) Unsettled weather and a gradual warming trend is expected into early next week, with frequent chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled conditions today into Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... At the surface, troffing will persist across the region today into tonight. Aloft, a disturbance in advance of low pressure across the Great Lakes will cross the region today. With support from the surface trof, upper level disturbance and diurnal heating scattered showers along with isolated/scattered thunderstorms will develop again today from late morning into the afternoon. Patchy fog is also possible this morning. The Great Lakes system will approach tonight keeping a chance of showers across the forecast area. The surface/upper system then begins to cross the region Friday with rain. Could also have the slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather and a gradual warming trend is expected into early next week, with frequent chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Positive PNA teleconnection pattern keeps ridging over the west, and slowly funnels low pressure systems into the northeast, resulting in the persistent rain showers. This weekend, low pressure system departs to the northeast, and surface high pressure system continues to reside west. Shortwaves swing into Maine Saturday and Sunday, supporting the potential for some rain showers and a few thunderstorms. Kept thunder at slight chance this weekend, as not anticipating much in terms of clearing until early next week. There is some CAPE and moisture, but lapse rates are modest and there is not much forcing. With gradually warming trend this week, temperatures begin to raise into the low-to-mid 80s, and diurnal heating could provide lift for convection to kick off. There is a chance for some isolated severe storms, but primary threats seem to be sub-severe thunderstorms with gusty winds, small hail, some bursts of rain, and lightning.

AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Today: Variable conditions with any low clouds and patchy fog this morning. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR. Scattered showers along with isolated/scattered thunderstorms later this morning into the afternoon. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Tonight: VFR/MVFR early, lowering to MVFR/IFR occasional LIFR with showers and patchy fog. Southeast/east winds 5 to 10 knots.

Friday: MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Rain and patchy fog. Slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. Southeast/east winds around 10 knots, becoming variable 5 to 10 knots.

Friday night: MVFR/IFR with numerous SHRA/-RA. -SHRA tapers off overnight, but MVFR/IFR persists. Patchy fog possible at KBHB. Light winds, that begin SW, and shift NW overnight.

Saturday - Sunday: MVFR early Saturday, otherwise VFR during the day, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Patchy fog and low clouds overnight may lower flight categories Saturday night at KBHB. NNW winds 5 to 10 kts, except with the sea breeze along the coast. Light and variable winds overnight.

Sunday night - Monday: Lower flight categories are possible in late night and morning fog/low clouds. Otherwise VFR during the day. Slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms. N/NW winds 5-10 kts during the day, and become light and variable overnight.

MARINE

Winds/seas below small craft advisory level today through Friday. Patchy fog this morning. Isolated/scattered showers along with patchy fog tonight. A chance of rain and patchy fog Friday.

Conditions below SCA criteria this weekend, with seas 2-3 ft. S winds Friday night, shifting N overnight, and then back to S/SW Sunday. Potential for some overnight fog Friday night and Saturday night over waters, reducing visibility. Rain showers possible Saturday and Sunday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.