textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Models continue to indicate near surface smoke mixing down over the north this afternoon, with another surge on Friday. Confidence remains too low regarding visibility reductions so have opted not to include in forecast at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Wildfire smoke may be able to mix down to the surface over the north this afternoon through Friday.

2) Increasing heat and humidity with a chance of thunderstorms today and Friday.

3) Temperatures increase early next week before the next system approaches mid week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Wildfire smoke may be able to mix down to the surface over the north this afternoon through Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A pre-frontal trough currently along the St. Lawrence will move through the region today. As it pushes south thru the area expect that there should be enough mixing to allow smoke to mix down to the surface over nrn Aroostook this afternoon, gradually spreading further south during the overnight hours based on the latest HRRR, RRFS and Canadian. The main cold front will move through tonight, allowing more smoke to mix toward the surface on Friday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Increasing heat and humidity with a chance of thunderstorms today and Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Accompanying the pre-frontal trough will be heat and humidity with showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon. Light showers will be moving across the north early this morning and with pre- frontal trough likely to be near central areas this afternoon, instability will be present along and south of the boundary. At this time it appears the best chance for storms will exist from the Central Highlands over into the Upper Penobscot Valley this afternoon and evening.

This boundary will gradually wash out this evening with the main cold front dropping out of Canada tonight. Showers move over the area tonight ahead of the front with most of the thunder confined over Downeast early tonight with elevated instability present. Cannot rule out another opportunity for storms along the coast Friday afternoon but this will depend on timing of fropa.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures increase early next week before the next system approaches mid week.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... High pressure builds in behind the departing front this weekend, bringing seasonable temperatures and clear skies. A ridge begins to move into the area on Sunday, increasing temperatures for the first part of the week. Temperatures are expected to be about 5-10 degrees above average, though increased humidity is not expected. Another trough approaches mid week which could bring some precipitation starting in the north late Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 12z this morning...Mainly VFR. Outside chance of MVFR vsbys at BHB in patchy fog between 08 and 11z this morning. S winds 5kts.

Today...Mainly VFR. FVE may drop to MVFR cigs between 08-14z this morning before improving to VFR. Cannot rule out chance for -tsra at HUL and BGR and have included PROB30 from 19-01z this afternoon for potential. Thunder looks to be isolated at this time. SSW winds 5- 10kts, becoming WNW this afternoon.

Tonight...VFR/MVFR in rain showers with very isolated -tsra Downeast terminals this evening. Light and variable winds.

Friday...VFR/MVFR in showers and -tsra, especially BGR and BHB. NW winds 5-15kts.

Friday Night-Saturday...VFR. NW wind 5-10 kts, gusts to 20 kt. An afternoon sea breeze could produce S winds 5-10 kt at BHB.

Saturday Night-Sunday...VFR. N-NW winds around 5kt. An afternoon sea breeze could produce S winds 5-10 kt at BHB.

Sunday Night...VFR. Light and variable winds.

Monday...VFR except possible MVFR in any showers/tstms at northern terminals late Monday. SW winds 5 to 10 kts.

MARINE

Winds remain aob 25kts all waters through Friday. Seas remain below 5ft all waters before increasing to 5-6 feet from 25-60NM this evening through Friday morning. Seas then diminish to between 2-4 feet through Friday. Patchy fog may reduce visibility this morning and again late tonight.

Winds/seas below SCA conditions this weekend and Monday with just some passing clouds.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.