textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 7:27PM UPDATE...Update for 00z TAFs see below. Minor tweaks to the ongoing precipitation across the CWA. Mainly now just shower activity with more widespread rain moving into New Brunswick. Watching an area of clearing in Northern New Hampshire and Southern Quebec that might reach portions of the Moosehead Region and North Woods in the next 2-3hrs. Otherwise mainly mostly cloudy skies and expect another increase in shower activity tonight. NBM Thunder probabilities continue to suggest some thunderstorms but with no instability have continued to keep that out of the forecast despite the activity back in Vermont nearing the Connecticut River Valley.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread rain showers continue tonight through Sunday.

2) Well above normal temperatures, as high as 10 to 15 degrees above average, expected Tuesday through late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread rain showers continue tonight through Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The open wave surface low is currently positioned in southern Ontario and continues to move eastward toward our CWA this evening. A warm front will lift northwards through the region this evening, bringing numerous to widespread showers throughout the forecast area. A brief pause is in store after around midnight tonight as the warm sector crosses the region, though rain showers may continue across the north, contributing to higher rainfall totals throughout Aroostook county with storm total QPF of at least half an inch.

The cold front associated with this low pressure will then follow into the day on Sunday, bringing another round of widespread showers through the forecast area from west to east. Precip will quickly end behind this boundary, with rain ending Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening.

With increasing low level inversion strength and decreasing trends in CAPE for northern and eastern Maine, have limited thunder threat through this afternoon and evening, and have removed thunder chances for Sunday, as this lack of instability will not be able to support any convective development.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Well above normal temperatures, as high as 10 to 15 degrees above average, expected Tuesday through late week.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... High pressure builds in behind the cold front exiting the area Sunday night which will lead to dry weather, mostly sunny skies, and warming temperatures throughout much of the the week. Temperatures will be around average on Monday before beginning to warm on Tuesday and remaining hot through late week. Temperatures likely to peak at around 10 to 15 degrees above normal with the highest temperatures currently expected towards the end of the week.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

00z TAF UPDATE... Tonight: Conditions will steadily deteriorate across all terms this eve and overnight. Initial VFR/MVFR cigs will lower to widespread IFR, eventually becoming LIFR (300-600 ft) late tonight as -SHRA spread across the region, reducing vsby to 3-5SM. Surface winds will generally be out of the S-SE at 5 to 10 kts, though early eve gusts up to 20 kts are expected at northern terms (KFVE, KCAR, KPQI). LLWS likely at all terminals this eve.

Tomorrow: Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions will persist through the morning hours before gradual improvement begins behind a southward-moving front. A wind shift to the N-NW will occur throughout the day, increasing to 10 to 15 kts with afternoon gusts ranging from 20 to 30 kts. Northern terminals (KFVE, KCAR, KPQI, KHUL) will see cigs lift to MVFR in the afternoon, ultimately returning to VFR between 19Z and 23Z. KBGR and KBHB will be slower to improve, remaining in IFR through the early afternoon before lifting to MVFR with lingering -SHRA and BR through the end of the TAF period.

Previous Discussion... Sunday night - Wednesday...VFR across all terminals. N/NW winds 5 to 10 kts, becoming light and variable each night.

Thursday...VFR at northern terminals, cigs trending towards MVFR/IFR from GNR/MLT south as rain moves in. SSE winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts possible around KBGR.

MARINE

Generally below small craft advisory conditions on the coastal and intracoastal waters through Thursday. Brief gusts to 25 kts on the coastal waters possible Sunday night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.