textproduct: Caribou

SYNOPSIS

A series of troughs cross the region today, as a strong low tracks through the Canadian Maritimes. Weak high pressure builds in tonight, then exits to the east on Saturday. Low pressure tracks east of Nova Scotia Sunday. High pressure builds across the region Monday into Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

6:00AM Update... Aviation section updated below.

Previous Discussion... Key Messages: *Hazardous morning/afternoon commute, due to blowing snow causing visibility reductions *Additional light snowfall in the north this morning

Low pressure system continues to depart to the northeast today, as weak shortwaves follows in the wake of the system, keeping light snow showers in the Crown of Maine. About an inch or two in additional snowfall accumulation is possible in the Crown of Maine. Daytime highs in the low-to-mid 20s. High pressure builds to the south of New England, maintaining a tight pressure gradient over the state. Highest gusts expected this afternoon, as upper- level low pressure continues to move northeast away from Maine, allowing for more ample mixing with winds aloft. Gusty westerly winds reach up to 30-35mph during the day. With high snowfall ratio snow falling on top of recently fallen snow, blowing snow is still the primary concern for the near term period. Continue to exercise caution if traveling on roads near open agricultural fields.

Tonight, winds gradually begin to relax as pressure gradient eases. Areas of blowing snow begin to dwindle down to patchy blowing snow. High pressure begins to build in from the west. Skies mostly to partially cloudy in the north, and clearing out Downeast. Dropped temperatures down a degree in areas of clearing. Overnight lows in the low-to-mid teens.

Saturday, weak ridging centers over the region, as a low over the Great Lakes begins to approach from the west. Skies partially cloudy, becoming overcast as approaching low begins to bring in more cloud cover. Daytime highs in the low-to-mid 20s, and low-30s along the coast. Occluding low pressure system brings a warm front into western portion of Maine by Saturday evening, along with some cold air advection ahead of the frontal system. Chance for some snow showers to reach into western regions, and for some snow showers to develop over the waters.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

High pressure exits across the Maritimes, while an upper level low approaches, Saturday night. Expect mostly cloudy skies across the region Saturday night with a slight chance/chance of light snow or snow showers. The upper low begins to cross the region Sunday, supporting a developing ocean low well south of the Gulf of Maine. Mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of snow showers will accompany the upper low. The upper level low crosses the region Sunday night. The surface low will intensify while tracking east of Nova Scotia, with high pressure ridged across the eastern Great Lakes. Will have a slight chance/chance of snow showers with the upper low Sunday night. Current indications are that the majority of the precipitation with the ocean low should miss the region. However, the northwest edge of the precipitation shield could possibly clip Downeast areas with a chance of light snow later Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure should build across the region Monday with partly sunny skies north, mostly/partly sunny Downeast. The pressure gradient between the intensifying Maritimes low and building high pressure should support gusty northwest/west winds Monday. Temperatures will be at below normal levels Sunday/Monday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

An upper level disturbance approaches Monday night. Expect partly/mostly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of snow showers across northern areas, with generally partly cloudy skies Downeast. The system should cross the region early Tuesday with a slight chance of early snow showers across northern areas. Otherwise, generally expect partly cloudy skies. A cold front could cross the region Wednesday, though timing differences still exist. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a slight chance/chance of snow showers Wednesday. High pressure will exit across the Maritimes Thursday, while low pressure approaches from the Great Lakes. Warmer air should be drawn north across the region in advance of this system, though the extent of warming is still uncertain. Precipitation types will be dependent on the northern extent of the warmer air. Preliminarily, expect a chance of snow or a snow/rain mix across northern and central areas Thursday with a chance of mostly rain Downeast. Expect below normal level temperatures Tuesday. Near normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures are expected Wednesday. Slightly above normal level temperatures are expected Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

NEAR TERM: KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: Some LLWS for the first few hours of 06Z TAF period, before winds aloft begin to mix down. Generally MVFR/IFR conditions at northern terminals, due to light snowfall and blowing/drifting snow around terminal spaces. Visibility briefly drops down to one mile, briefly lower, at times in blowing snow conditions. Low ceilings. Winds from the SW at 10-15 kts. Gusting currently to 25 kts, and expected to increase to around 35 kts this afternoon. Winds will relax later this evening. Potential for some LLWS late tonight. Ceilings also begin to rise later tonight. KBGR/KBHB: Some LLWS for the first few hours of 06Z TAF period, before winds aloft begin to mix down. VFR conditions at southern terminals. Winds from the SW around 10-15 kts, and gusts up to 25 kts, ramping up to around 35 kt this afternoon. Winds gradually relax later this evening. Potential for some LLWS tonight.

SHORT TERM:

Saturday night...VFR/MVFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR, with a chance of light snow or snow showers. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest/north.

Sunday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Monday...VFR. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots.

Monday night through Tuesday...VFR/MVFR north. A slight chance of snow showers north Monday night through early Tuesday. VFR Downeast. Northwest/west winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots Monday night. Southwest/west winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots Tuesday.

MARINE

NEAR TERM: Gale conditions expected this morning through tonight for the outer waters, and through this afternoon for the intra- coastals. Wave heights generally 8-11 ft over the outer waters, and generally 3-5 ft over the intra-coastals. Winds from the W this morning into tomorrow. Chance of light freezing spray early this morning into early afternoon. Potential for some light snow showers over the waters Saturday evening.

SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions expected Saturday night/Sunday. Gale conditions Sunday night into Monday. A chance of rain/snow Saturday night. Snow likely Sunday. A chance of snow showers Sunday night. Light freezing spray Sunday night into Monday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for ANZ050-051. Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ052.