textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Updated aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs.

- Added key message on snow shower potential across the north Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Confidence for impacts from the coastal storm tonight into Friday are still decreasing. However, uncertainty still exists.

2) There is the potential for snow showers across the North on Saturday, with accumulation possible across higher elevations.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Confidence for impacts from the coastal storm tonight into Friday are still decreasing. However, uncertainty still exists.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Models are in better agreement regarding a more southerly track for the coastal low, which will diminish potential impacts across the forecast area. Low pressure will move from the Mid-Atlantic region toward southern New England today. The low will track south of the Gulf of Maine tonight, with high pressure centered northwest of Maine. The northern edge of the precipitation shield will reach Downeast areas tonight, though amounts are still uncertain. Precipitation should start in the form of a rain/snow mix, then generally transition to mostly light snow overnight. However, a rain/snow mix could persist along the immediate Downeast coast. Snow accumulations across Downeast areas are generally expected to be around a half inch or less overnight. The system exits southeast of Nova Scotia Friday, though how rapidly precipitation diminishes is uncertain. Additional minor snow accumulations are possible early Friday before precipitation diminishes and transitions back to rain.

KEY MESSAGE 2...There is the potential for snow showers across the North Friday night and Saturday, with accumulation possible across higher elevations.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A closed upper level low sinks south into Northern Maine Friday night and Saturday. This will bring isolated to scattered snow showers (rain and snow showers NE Aroostook/N Penobscot Saturday afternoon) across the North. There is a chance for accumulating snow across the higher elevations, most likely only a few tenths of an inch, however a few stronger snow showers producing a quick inch or two of snow at elevations above 1000 ft cannot be completely ruled out (20% or less chance). If this occurs, travel could be locally hazardous there.

AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Today...VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Tonight...Across northern areas, VFR. Across Downeast areas, VFR early then lowering to MVFR/IFR with a chance of snow and rain. North/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots.

Friday...Across northern areas, VFR. Across Downeast areas, MVFR/IFR occasional LIFR with snow and rain early. VFR/MVFR late. North/northeast winds 10 to 15 knots.

Friday night-Saturday...MVFR or lower possible at Northern Terminals in any snow showers (rain/snow showers Saturday afternoon). Highly likely VFR at southern terminals with a very low chance of MVFR or lower. NE winds G15-20KT possible at southern terminals Friday night.

Saturday night...MVFR possible in any snow showers.

Sunday-Monday...VFR, with possible exception of a period of MVFR possible in any lingering snow showers on Sunday at northern terminals. NW winds G15-20KT possible Monday.

MARINE

A Gale Watch remains in effect from late tonight through Friday evening for much of the waters, with the exception of the intra-coastal waters. Small craft advisory conditions are expected on the intra-coastal waters later tonight through Friday. Rain tonight into Friday night.

Gales are possible on the outer waters Friday night. SCA conditions are likely on the coastal waters Friday night and on the coastal ocean waters Saturday. Winds of 15 kt or less and seas of 4 ft or less are forecast for the coastal waters Saturday night-Monday. For the outer waters: sustained winds of 15 kt or less Saturday-Monday and seas of 5-7 ft Saturday decreasing to 2-3ft by Monday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from late tonight through Friday evening for ANZ050- 051-080-081.