textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 7:27PM UPDATE...Update for 00z TAF see the aviation discussion below...Additionally changes were made to the POPs for the night to account for trends in Hi-Res guidance along with trends in Canadian Radar / KCBW echos. Canadian radars to our north showing an area of showers pivoting south over the St. Lawrence seaway. This is associated with a 500mb shortwave pivoting around the cutoff low to our northeast. This will keep isolated to scattered rain showers possible tonight across mainly the Moosehead Region to St. John Valley.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cool temperatures are expected Thursday and will continue into the weekend, with the possibility for a moderate to heavy rain event mainly south/west of Millinocket late Friday into Saturday. Flooding is not anticipated. Mountain snow is possible and would impact people hiking in the mountains.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Cool temperatures are expected Thursday and will continue into the weekend, with the possibility for a moderate to heavy rain event mainly south/west of Millinocket late Friday into Saturday. Flooding is not anticipated. Mountain snow is possible and would impact people hiking in the mountains.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Upper level low pressure will slide across Northern Maine and New Brunswick through Thursday night. Unseasonably cool air is expected across the region on Thursday with persistent cloud cover and northerly flow expected. Afternoon high temperatures on Thursday are expected to be about 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year, especially across the north. Thursday night low temperatures are expected to fall into the mid to upper 30s in a few of the normally colder spots of the far north. There is a low probability of some patchy frost in those areas, but with cloud cover expected and a bit of a northerly breeze the overall threat of frost is low.

Late Friday into Saturday, another anomalously cold and strong upper level low pressure system will dive south out of Quebec. This could bring some moderate to heavy rain to western portions of the area (mainly south/west of Millinocket). However, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty on the track of this system. Most solutions have the heaviest precipitation over western Maine, but with some notable rain getting east into western portions of our forecast area. While the heavier rain could stay west of Greenville/Bangor/Bar Harbor, there are increasing chances that the rain will make it as far east as Greenville/Bangor/Bar Harbor. Going with 60-80 percent rain chances late Friday into Saturday. The most likely amount of rain south/west of Millinocket is a half inch to one inch of rain, though there is a 10-20 percent chance of exceeding 2 inches of rain. There is also a very small chance of getting less than a tenth of an inch if the system tracks further west than expected. Odds favor far NE Maine staying dry with the storm. This system will be anomalously cold for this time of year, and areas that get the heavier precipitation will have snow levels dropping down to 2000-4000 ft above sea level. This means that mountain peaks from Katahdin southwest could see measurable snow Friday night and Saturday morning. The better chance of more significant mountain snow is over the western Maine mountains as compared to the Baxter State Park region, though this will need to be monitored in case the system shifts a bit further east.

Sunday into early next week, we should be looking at a bit of a warming trend, though there is significant uncertainty as to whether we dry out or continue to see intermittent wet weather.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

00z TAF UPDATE... Tonight...KFVE, KCAR, KPQI, KHUL: Conditions will start MVFR with cigs between 1000 and 3000 ft early this eve, along VCSH. Cigs are expected to lower to IFR (BKN007-009) overnight, generally between 01Z-04Z. Vsby will mostly remain VFR. Winds will generally be from the N-NE around 5 to 10 kts.

KBGR, KBHB: VFR cigs. MVFR cigs (BKN020-030) will develop overnight between 06Z and 08Z. N winds initially gusting to 20 kts at KBGR will quickly diminish to around 5 to 10 kts. Winds at KBHB will become light and variable.

Thursday...KFVE, KCAR, KPQI, KHUL: IFR cigs will slowly lift back to MVFR (BKN010-015) between 10Z and 15Z. Vsby will be VFR. N-NE winds will increase by mid-morning to around 10 kts, with gusts picking up to 15 to 20 kts.

For southern terminals: MVFR cigs will linger through the morning hours. KBGR will lift back to VFR (BKN035) by 16Z, while KBHB will scatter out to VFR by 12Z. N winds will increase to 10 to 15 kts, with frequent gusts up to 20 to 25 kts through the afternoon.

Previous Discussion... Thursday night...MVFR/VFR Aroostook terminals, VFR KBGR/KBHB. N wind 5 to 10 kt.

Friday...Mainly VFR Downeast terminals with VFR/MVFR Aroostook terminals with showers possible. NNE winds 5-10kts.

Friday night-Saturday...MVFR, possible IFR, Downeast terminals in rain. MVFR or VFR for Aroostook terminals. NE winds increasing to 10-15 kts gusts to 25 kts Saturday.

Saturday night-Sunday...VFR/MVFR with showers possible. N winds 5-10kts.

MARINE

Winds/seas are expected to to remain below SCA levels through Thursday night.

Northeasterly gales are likely late Friday night into Saturday morning for the western portions of the waters (south of Mt Desert Island), with about a 75 percent chance of gales. Further northeast toward the waters south of Eastport, the chance of gales drops to 25 percent. Seas are likely to build to 4-7 ft during the Friday night/Saturday period. Conditions gradually improve Saturday night and Sunday, with conditions back below small craft levels for winds and seas by late Sunday. Fairly quiet conditions into Monday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.