textproduct: Caribou
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- Increasing confidence in marine layer moving in tonight.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Dry weather with warmer than average temperatures through today.
2) Rain later Wednesday into Thursday night, steadiest Downeast.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather with warmer than average temperatures through today.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure will remain to the east of the region. Due to the center of the high far off to the east, strong enough subsidence will keep the region dry with the exception of a few showers and storms along the Quebec border this and tomorrow afternoon. In addition, winds will remain fairly weak. Temperatures will remain warmer than average with upper 70s to mid 80s today. Patchy fog especially near the coast tonight as southerly marine flow begins to increase ahead of the next system.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain later Wednesday into Thursday night, steadiest Downeast.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A slow moving vertically stacked low will cross New England Wednesday night, then cross the southern Gulf of Maine Thursday through Thursday night. Rain should begin to expand across the region later Wednesday into Wednesday night. The steadiest rains, and greater rain totals, Wednesday night through Thursday night will occur across Downeast areas with decreasing totals northward across the remainder of the forecast area. Could also have the slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm Thursday. Rain will then taper to showers Thursday night.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Today...VFR. SSE winds 5-10 kts
Tonight...Mainly VFR, then MVFR/IFR for all terminals with possible LIFR for south terminals in patchy fog. Light and variable winds.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR. SSE winds 5-10 kts.
Wednesday night...Across northern areas, VFR/MVFR early then lowering to IFR/LIFR. A chance of rain. Across Downeast areas, MVFR/IFR lowering to IFR/LIFR with rain and patchy fog. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.
Thursday...Across northern areas, MVFR/IFR then VFR/MVFR with rain likely. Across Downeast areas IFR/LIFR, then MVFR/IFR with rain. Patchy fog early. Slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm regionwide. East/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots.
Thursday night...VFR/MVFR early, then MVFR/IFR occasional LIFR. Rain tapering to showers, mostly Downeast. Patchy fog late regionwide. East/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north.
Friday...MVFR/IFR early, then VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers. Slight chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.
Friday night...Variable conditions with any patchy fog late. Otherwise, VFR. Variable winds around 5 knots. becoming southwest.
Saturday...Variable conditions with any patchy fog early. Otherwise VFR. Slight chance of an afternoon shower. Southwest/south winds 5 to 10 knots.
MARINE
Quiet winds and seas through Wednesday. Marine fog begins to increase this evening through tonight.
Small craft advisory conditions possible Wednesday night into Thursday. Rain Wednesday night into Thursday, then tapering to showers Thursday night. Patchy fog Wednesday night into Thursday night.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None. MARINE...None.
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