textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Precipitation totals have decreased.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread soaking rain expected Thursday. Some drought relief is possible, though flooding is not expected.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread soaking rain expected Thursday. Some drought relief is possible, though flooding is not expected.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure exits across the Maritimes Wednesday night while an occluded front approaches from the west. An area of rain will begin to expand eastward across the forecast area Wednesday night in advance of the front. A disturbance moving around an upper low across Quebec province will help support a developing low along the front Thursday. Rain will occur regionwide Thursday. The developing low will begin to cross the Gulf of Maine Thursday night, though the exact track is still uncertain. Rain chances will begin to diminish later Thursday night. The surface low exits across the Maritimes Friday, while the upper low crosses the region. Showers will persist across the region Friday, with the better chances across northern areas. The surface/upper lows vertically stack across the Maritimes Friday night into Saturday, slowing the movement of the system. Shower chances will persist Friday night into Saturday. The system then exits Saturday night into Sunday. The entire forecast area should receive a soaking rain Later Wednesday night into Thursday night. Rainfall totals exceeding 1 inch are between 30% and 50%, although those chances have diminished slightly. Generally higher totals are expected in the South, but will depend on where the low sets up in the Gulf of Maine.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Rest of Today...VFR for all terminals. Light and variable winds. BHB will see a light sea breeze from the SE around 5 kts.

Tonight...Mainly VFR for all terminals. Possible patchy fog after midnight and into the early morning for PQI and HUL. Light and variable winds.

Wednesday...VFR for all terminals. SE winds 5-10 kts.

Wed night...VFR early, then becoming IFR/LIFR for south terminals and MVFR/IFR for north terminals. Rain will move in from west to east throughout the night. SE winds 5-10 kts.

Thursday through Thursday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Rain and patchy fog. Southeast winds around 10 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Thursday. Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming variable Thursday night.

Friday...MVFR, occasional IFR. A chance of showers. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north/northeast.

Friday night through Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers. North/northeast winds around 10 knots Friday night, then 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Saturday.

Saturday night through Sunday...VFR. North winds around 10 knots, gusting to around 20 knots.

MARINE

Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels tonight to Wed night. For tonight, light winds will increase to around 10 kts from the E. The E winds will remain through Wednesday, then shift SE Wed night. Seas will increase to 2-3 ft Wed night. Winds will be near SCA and seas will be at SCA criteria in the coastal waters Thursday. Seas will peak around 4-6 feet. Winds and seas decrease below SCA criteria Thursday night and remain below criteria through Sunday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.