textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 5:51AM UPDATE...Made adjustments to POPs and TStorm coverage in Northern Maine this afternoon. Additionally, Dense Fog Advisory was expired in Hancock County but extended until 7AM for Coastal Washington County. Fog will begin to lift and mix out over the next 1-2hrs as the sun angle increases.

- Increased thunderstorm potential across NE Aroostook County this afternoon.

- Decreased temperatures Sunday into Tuesday due to clouds and precip.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Drier day today with warmer temperatures returning, scattered thunderstorms possible in northeastern Aroostook County.

2) Cold front passes Sunday into Monday, bringing widespread rain and thunderstorm chances.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Drier day today with warmer temperatures returning, scattered thunderstorms possible in northeastern Aroostook County.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The backdoor cold front of Friday drifts back northeastward to the Maine/New Brunswick border becoming Quasi-Stationary. Clouds mix out and lift this morning with fog mixing out. Skies turning mostly sunny today across the region with NW winds 5-15mph developing across the area. Less muggy today with highs topping out in the upper 70s to near 80F in Northern Maine, low to mid 80s for the Central Highlands to Downeast Coast except 60s-70s at the shoreline. The Quasi-Stationary boundary will be the focus as a 500mb shortwave approaches from Quebec tonight and swings across Northern Maine. HRRR, RRFS, NAM3km, HRDPS all product 1000-1500j/kg of SBCAPE in Northeastern Aroostook while the GFS/ECMWF produce 750-1000j/kg of CAPE. LL lapse rates 8-9C/km with 6.5C/km ML lapse rates and deep layer shear increases with the 500mb shortwave. Modeled soundings indicate thunderstorms seem probable across NE Aroostook County.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cold front passes Sunday into Monday, bringing widespread rain and thunderstorm chances.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Shortwave over the Great Lakes region moves towards Maine and enters New England by Sunday. Rain moves in from west to east, lasting Sunday into late Monday. Instability on Sunday ranges from between 500-800 J/kg with steep low-level lapse rates, however mid-level lapse rates are meager. Instability may be limited by capping inversion in the afternoon but cannot rule out isolated thunderstorm development, mainly over the north and west. Prolonged southerly flow off the Gulf of Maine is anticipated to keep the Downeast region stable. Roughly anticipating about one half to three quarters of an inch of rain with these showers in northern and western areas. Could be some locally higher spots of higher rain totals in regions favoring thunderstorm development. WPC has added a marginal risk of excessive rainfall across Northern Maine thanks to 3hr flash flood guidance much lower in the areas that have seen recent heavy rainfall. Low end, non-zero probability of isolated flash flooding in any heavier convection that develops.

AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 12z... IFR/LIFR thanks to -SHRA then BR/FG. Light and variable winds.

Today...IFR/LIFR becoming MVFR/VFR then VFR mid morning. NW winds 5-15kt. PROB30 for CAR and FVE this afternoon for thunderstorms.

Tonight...VFR. MVFR/IFR possible north with low cigs/vsby due to BR. Light and variable winds.

Sunday-Sunday Night: MVFR or lower possible at northern terminals as rain moves in from the west, with a low chance of MVFR at southern terminals. Thunderstorms possible at Aroostook terminals throughout the day, with slight potential of thunderstorms at southern terminals late afternoon. SW winds G15-20KT possible Sunday, shifting to S over night. LLWS possible Sunday night. Fog possible area wide over night. Monday: MVFR or lower possible Monday morning, with some morning fog. Also isolated thunderstorms possible at Downeast terminals Monday morning. Potential for isolated thunder at KFVE and KCAR Monday evening. S winds 5-10KT shifting to W winds, with gusts 15-20KT.

Monday night-Wednesday...VFR. WSW G15-20KT possible Tuesday afternoon.

MARINE

Winds and seas will be below small craft levels all waters through the weekend. Winds and seas approach small craft levels over the waters out to 25NM Sunday night. Conditions drop below small craft levels on Monday afternoon and remain that way into the middle of next week. Showers and thunderstorms will pass through the waters Sunday night into Monday. Fog will reduce visibilities over the waters tonight and tomorrow night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MEZ029-030. Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for MEZ030. MARINE...None.