textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

-Increased confidence in cold wind chills and gusty conditions this weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Arctic front brings bitter wind chills this weekend.

2) Potential of a storm system for late in the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Arctic front brings bitter wind chills this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Arctic front approaches the region Saturday, bringing frigid cold air into northern and eastern Maine. Precipitation stays well to our west and south, as associated low pressure system is absorbed by a stronger low in the mid-Atlantic. Temperatures crash Saturday night, bringing cold wind chills -25 to -20 in the western North Woods, and -20 to -15 in northern Aroostook. Wind chills around -15 to -10 in Central Highlands to Bangor region, and -10 to -5 in the interior Downeast region. Similar wind chills Sunday night, with wind chills -25 to -20 in the western North Woods, and -20 to -15 in northern Aroostook. Wind chills around -15 to -10 in Central Highlands to Bangor region, and around -10 in the interior Downeast region. There is a good pressure gradient right behind this front, bringing some gusty winds over the forecast area Saturday night through Sunday. Gusts 25 to 30 mph, with a potential to for blowing snow throughout roads near open fields, reducing visibility.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Potential of a storm system for late in the week

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... With the system fcst to affect the northeast at the end of next week still being over the North Pacific, solutions will likely change this weekend. That being said, some 12z guidance showing potential for system Wednesday night and Thursday, while other guidance does not. Ensemble guidance is an even mix of storm vs no storm and will continue with chc pops Wednesday evening thru Friday morning. Will continue to monitor the trends.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

This afternoon - Tonight: VFR tonight at all terminals. Light winds from the N. Winds become light and variable tonight. Ceilings begin to fall down to low end VFR/MVFR ceilings at northern terminals late tonight.

Saturday - Saturday night: Low end VFR/MVFR at northern terminals early in the morning, before ceilings rise to VFR during the day. Potential for blowing snow to impact terminals Saturday night, as winds begin to pick up. N winds on Saturday around 5-10 kts, becoming NW winds by Saturday night. Gusts 15-20 kts possible overnight at all terminals.

Sunday-Sunday night...VFR, tempo MVFR over nrn Aroostook terminals. NW 10-20kts gusting to 25kts. DRSN/BLSN possible at sites. LLWS possible.

Monday-Tuesday...VFR. NW 10-20kts.

MARINE

Winds and seas stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria through Saturday night. Winds and seas start to approach Gales Saturday evening into night. Seas generally 4-7 ft over the outer waters Saturday night. Light freezing spray over the waters tonight, relaxing and becoming light to moderate Saturday night. Some snow showers possible Saturday over outer-waters. Winds from N/NE tonight through Saturday night.

Gale force winds over the outer waters into Sunday morning before diminishing to SCA levels. Seas look to remain above 5ft over the outer waters through Monday morning with winds at marginal gale conditions through Monday morning. Winds vary between small craft and marginal gale conditions into Tuesday morning. Moderate freezing spray expected into Monday afternoon, with light freezing spray expected into Tuesday morning.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday for MEZ003-004-010. MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM Saturday to 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ050>052. Freezing Spray Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ050>052.