textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

-Added key message for potential or minor beach erosion from Nor'easter.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Generally dry weather today through late this week.

2) Nor'easter could potentially cause minor beach erosion to the coast from Tuesday night into possibly Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Generally dry weather today through late this week.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...A strong surface high pressure settles across the northeast, keeping conditions dry. A strong low-pressure system in the central Atlantic stays well to our southeast Monday night through Thursday as a result.

Breezy conditions today in the north, with some wind gusts up to 25mph possible. A weak cold front will move through tonight into Tuesday. However, with very limited low-level moisture, not anticipating any rainfall along the frontal boundary. High temperatures are expected to be generally in the 50s mid-week, cooling towards the 40s through the end of the week. Overnight lows drop into the 20s and low 30s mid week.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Nor'easter could bring beach erosion to the coast late this week.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A cutoff low off the Mid Atlantic Coast Wednesday morning, lifts northeast through Thursday morning, then either continues northeast into The Maritimes or heads eastward Friday.

There is still quite a bit of uncertainty on the exact track, strength and nature of this storm. If the stronger more northern solutions for this Nor'easter are correct, then there could be some minor beach erosion along portions of the Downeast coast around the time of high tide from Tuesday night into at least Thursday. While predicted water levels will remain below coastal flood benchmarks, there could be sufficient wave setup/runup over multiple high tide cycles to cause some minor beach erosion at more vulnerable locations along the coasts of Hancock and Washington County. With the vast majority of solutions with the Nor'easter not favoring a stronger and more northward track at this time, the current chance for even minor beach erosion with this system is very low, at 10-20%.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Today...VFR. LLWS at northern terminals early morning, that relaxes by mid-morning. S/SW winds at 10-15KT with gusts up to around 20KT possible.

Tonight...VFR. Chance for some patchy river valley fog overnight. S/SW winds at 5-10KT, becoming light and variable.

Tuesday...VFR. N/NW winds at 0-15 kts with gusts up to around 20 kts.

Tuesday night-Wednesday night: With the possible exception of a low chance of MVFR or lower in patchy fog late at night, it should be VFR. NE-ENE winds G15-25KT possible at all terminals Tuesday night and at coastal terminals Wednesday.

Thursday: High confidence in VFR at northern terminals and KBGR. Downeast terminals most likely will be VFR, however there is a very low chance of MVFR or lower conditions, with the best chance near the immediate coast. N-NE winds G15-20KT possible Thursday afternoon.

Thursday night-Friday: VFR. N-NE winds G15-25KT possible Friday.

MARINE

Winds/seas below SCA criteria today into tonight. However, seas will begin to build late tonight along with increasing winds. SCA wind gusts over over waters begin Tuesday morning, as seas rise to 4-6 ft over coastal waters. Outer waters will see seas 6-8ft on Tuesday.

SCA conditions expected to continue Tuesday night for the coastal ocean waters, so have issued an SCA for there through 10Z Wednesday. There is also a low chance for gusts to gale force on the outer waters and a low chance for SCA conditions on the intra-coastal waters Tuesday night.

Small craft advisory conditions could continue into Wednesday on the coastal ocean waters, but confidence in this is too low to extend the SCA into this time frame at this time. Otherwise all coastal waters should see sub-SCA conditions Wednesday- Thursday. Small Craft conditions are possible again on the coastal ocean waters Thursday night. The outer waters should see gusts 25-30kt and seas 5-8 ft Wednesday-Thursday night.

Gales are possible on the coastal ocean and outer waters Friday, with SCA conditions likely on the intra-coastal waters.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051.