textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Slight decrease in snow potential for northern areas due to a northerly trend in the track of the system Friday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A strong system Friday through Saturday is expected to bring widespread rain with some snow over the North Friday/Friday night and strong winds Friday night into Saturday.

2) Extended dry period from the weekend through at least late next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong system Friday through Saturday is expected to bring widespread rain with some snow over the North Friday/Friday night and strong winds Friday night into Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A strong low pressure system is expected to develop over the Great Lakes, then move east towards the state this weekend. This system is expected to bring widespread precip to the region Friday. As of this update, ensemble solutions are gradually converging on a track through the northern half of the state but there are still groupings of members wanting to take the track a bit south. The updated track of the system closer to the north will limit colder air making it further south, so snow chances have decreased. The track is still relatively favorable for some snowfall in northern areas as winds will have an easterly component, preventing substantial warm air from advecting into the area. Most areas that see snow will probably see less than an inch but a few areas near the Canadian border might reach an inch or possibly two. Snow amounts are likely to be terrain dependent with higher elevations receiving the greater amounts. Any areas that do see some snow will transition to rain in the afternoon as temperatures warm. Widespread rain amounts of a third of an inch of rain to half an inch of rain are expected for the forecast area. Some slick roads are possible Friday night as temperatures drop to around freezing. Snow showers in the north are likely to persist into Saturday with strong, gusty winds up to 40 mph. Along with temperatures in the 30s this is likely to result in wind chills dipping into the 20s. Isolated power outages are possible with the gusty winds.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Extended dry period from the weekend through at least late next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... As the system departs Saturday, high pressure will build in over the area. High pressure is expected to continue to dominate through next week as the jet stream generally stays to our north. High pressure will limit precipitation chances through next week and lead to seasonable temperatures with highs generally in the 50s and lows in the 30s.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Today...VFR. NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts 20 to 25 kt. 35-45 kt LLWS ends during the morning.

Tonight...VFR. WNW winds 5 kt becoming calm overnight.

Friday - Saturday...MVFR/IFR possible in rain, and possibly snow mixing in over the north. MVFR over the north Saturday with snow showers. SE winds 10 to 15 kt Friday, increasing to 15 to 20 kt out of the NW Saturday with gusts up to 35 kt.

Saturday night - Sunday...VFR. WNW winds 10 kt gusting to 20 kt.

Monday...VFR. S winds 5-10 kt.

MARINE

SCA continues through 14z Thursday for intracoastal and coastal ocean waters with nw winds gusting to 30kts and seas between 4-6 feet. Outer waters will see gale force winds through 14z Thu before diminishing. Conditions to drop below small craft through Thursday night.

Below SCA winds and seas Thursday night through Friday morning on the coastal and intracoastal waters, then winds and seas increase to SCA criteria on all waters Friday afternoon, becoming gales on all waters Friday night, persisting through Saturday. Winds decrease to SCA criteria Sunday. Seas peak at 11 to 13 ft on the outer waters and 6 to 9 ft on the coastal waters early Saturday. Winds and seas should be below SCA levels on Monday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ050- 051. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ052. Gale Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ080-081.