textproduct: Caribou
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- More uncertainty in the timing of the cold front this weekend. - Slight increase in high temperatures today and Thursday.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Hot and fairly muggy through the weekend.
2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms late this week. Some severe storms are possible.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and fairly muggy through the weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Hotter today with highs around 90 for most areas. Similar temperatures for Thursday, then slightly less hot Friday through Sunday in the north, but just about as hot for the Bangor region and Downeast. Today and Thursday will be somewhat muggy but not too bad. However, quite a bit muggier Friday into the weekend with dewpoints nearing 70. So although it may be a touch less hot Friday to Sunday, it will feel just as hot due to higher dewpoints. At some point, we could approach heat advisory criteria of heat indices of 95, most likely on Friday and in the Bangor region. As mugginess increases, nighttime lows are quite mild from Thursday night into the weekend. There will be a bit of relief from the heat near the coast mainly as afternoon sea breezes, though any of the days could get quite hot before the sea breeze kicks in.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered showers and thunderstorms late this week. Some severe storms are possible.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure system approaches from the northwest, moving into New Brunswick. The timing of the cold front is still uncertain, but for this update, the front should enter the region Friday night and move through on Saturday. Both Friday and Saturday have ample instability with CAPE values above 1000 J/kg, steepening lapse rates, and plenty of upper level divergence. However, models are trending to a less active day on Friday with more pulse isolated storms due to the timing of the front. By Saturday, the low intensifies with more moisture moving into the area. Upper air model soundings still show long skinny CAPE on both Friday and Saturday, but now Saturday has a much more moist column compared to Friday. In addition, higher PWAT values favor Saturday for more rainfall. Nevertheless, the weekend looks to be active and more model updates are needed to pin down the timing of the front.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Today...High confidence in VFR. Winds generally less than 10 kts from the W/SW, except up to around S/SW 10 kts at BGR/BHB in the afternoon as a sea breeze.
Tonight...Mainly VFR with light winds. Low chance (less than 30 percent) of late night fog at any TAF site.
Thursday...VFR with SW winds less than 10 kts.
Thu night...Mainly VFR with possible MVFR/IFR for lower lying terminals in patchy fog. Light and variable winds.
Friday...Mainly VFR with possible MVFR/IFR for north terminals in isolated showers and thunderstorms. Light W winds
Fri night-Saturday...MVFR/IFR in showers with possible thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Light and variable winds.
Sat night-Sunday...MVFR in showers. W winds 5-10 kts.
MARINE
Winds S/SW 15 kts or less today into the weekend, with 2-4ft seas over all waters. Chance for some thunderstorms Friday through the weekend.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None. MARINE...None.
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