textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Thunderstorm threat for Tuesday has greatly decreased, though some pop up showers/storms are possible, mainly in the north.

- Temperatures have trended even a bit warmer for Wednesday night through Friday. Increased confidence in hazardous heat.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Very warm temperatures through Friday and increasingly muggy. Hazardous heat is likely Wednesday through Friday, with little reprieve each night.

2) A complex of storms may move through the area Wednesday afternoon.

3) Thunderstorms remain possible Thursday through Saturday. Storms could be on the stronger side.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Very warm temperatures through Friday and increasingly muggy. Hazardous heat is likely Wednesday through Friday, with little reprieve each night.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Hot temperatures are expected this week, with the highest temperatures landing Wednesday through Friday. This heat combined with the increase in humidity will likely result in hazardous heat beginning Wednesday, particularly for the Bangor area, Central Highlands around Dover-Foxcroft, and the Interior Downeast region.

In addition to the daytime heat, lows each night will only drop into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Combined with dewpoints of about the same, warm and humid nights are expected which will offer little reprieve after the daytime heat. This could increase the stress and hazardous effects this heat has.

For Wednesday, southwest winds will bring marine moisture up into the region, with dewpoints quickly lifting into the upper 60s to lower 70s. This will be the first oppressively muggy day by our standards. Meanwhile, temperatures will easily lift into the 80s throughout the forecast area, though some portions of the Bangor and Interior Downeast region could lift into the upper 80s and approach 90.

For Thursday, winds shift in direction to out of the west, reducing the marine influence on the area. This pattern shift will allow for dewpoints to level off around 70, however temperatures will continue to climb. Thursday will likely be the hottest day of the week for most spots, with the northern half of the forecast area reaching into the lower 90s and the Bangor and Interior Downeast regions potentially making a run for the mid to upper 90s. Any cooling influence from the Gulf of Maine will be limited to the very immediate coast, and you won't have to go inland but a few miles to get into the low or mid 90s. Of note, over the last 24-48 hours, models have been trending a bit warmer for Thursday but finally appear to be steadying.

For Friday, temperatures decrease about 5F but the north but are just about as hot for Downeast, especially the coast. Just a touch less muggy, but still quite muggy.

Temperatures and dewpoints continue to fall some into the weekend, but temperatures will remain warmer than average and still at least a bit muggy.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A complex of storms may move through the area Wednesday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A round of thunderstorms could ride the ridge that is to our southwest Wednesday afternoon. Ingredients seem to be more favorable than Tuesday, with nearly 2500 J/kg of CAPE in some areas and 30-40 kts of shear. If any storms develop, they could be strong. Looking at the instability parameters as the storms enter the area, expect that most will be elevated, except maybe closer to western zones with better surface-based instability. Western zones are currently in a marginal excessive rainfall outlook given PW values > 2.00 inches. There is the potential for localized flooding from some of the heavier showers/storms.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Thunderstorms remain possible Thursday through Saturday. Storms could be on the stronger side.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... The general weather pattern remains favorable for intermittent showers and thunderstorms Thursday to Saturday. However, timing these thunderstorm threats is difficult this far out. That said, when we do get storms, they could be strong or severe, with plenty of instability and moisture, and modest shear. Storms may not be limited to afternoon hours, as this is the type of pattern when storms can move through even in the pre- dawn hours. We may begin seeing diminished thunderstorm chances toward Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Today...VFR. Variable winds this morning becoming SSW 5kts this afternoon.

Tonight...Mainly VFR though may see low cigs move in late in the TAF period at FVE. Downeast terminals MVFR/IFR after 06z in showers and possible tstms. S winds 5kts.

Wednesday: VFR, except for a chance of MVFR or lower in any fog late at night/early in the morning and a brief chance for MVFR in any stronger convection in the afternoon/early evening. S/SW winds at 5-10 kt, gusts to 15 kt.

Wednesday Night-Saturday: Mainly VFR, except for a chance of MVFR or lower in any fog late at night/early in the morning and a brief chance for MVFR in any thunderstorms. W/SW winds at 5-15 kt, becoming NW Saturday.

MARINE

Wind and seas will remain below small craft levels through Tuesday. SW winds gusts to 25kts over waters 25-60NM after midnight with seas approaching 5ft out to 25NM and between 6-8 feet from 25 to 60NM. Visibilities reduced in fog over the waters Tuesday night.

Seas may increase Tuesday night into Wednesday, becoming 4 to 7 ft. Winds should remain below advisory level during this time though, with gusts 15 to 20 kts aside from the outer waters, which could see gusts to 25 kts. Seas decrease once more through the rest of the week. Chance for fog to reduce visibility through Friday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.