textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 8:13PM UPDATE...Hi-res modeled soundings in solid agreement with slightly increased winds across the Moosehead Region and portions of N. Somerset county which is confirmed with 12z RAOB at CAR for a mixed boundary layer below the mid level inversion. Have adjusted temperatures to follow the trends with already below zero readings at Greenville (-3F). When you combined the increased winds and lower temperatures getting wind chills tonight down to around -25F and therefore issued a Cold Weather Advisory for Central Piscataquis and Northern Somerset counties till 7AM EST Saturday. No other changes at this time.

- Expanded PoPs throughout northern and eastern Maine to last through this evening.

- Decreased minimum temperatures tonight and Saturday night.

- Chances for snow have decreased Sunday night into Monday with large Atlantic storm tracking further out to sea.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Relatively cold and dry conditions tonight into Saturday.

2) A large storm passing well to our southeast will brush the Downeast region with some brisk winds Sunday into Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2

A large storm passing well to our southeast will brush the Downeast region with some brisk winds Sunday into Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A large area of low pressure developing over the Southeast on Saturday is expected to intensify and track northeast, passing well southeast of our area Sunday into Monday. Although the low center will pass around 300 miles southeast of our region, the size of the systems wind field means some brisk winds will impact our Downeast region with the strongest winds along the coast from late Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning. Blowing snow, especially where there are open areas to the north, and isolated power outages are possible. A bit of light snow may back into Southeastern Washington County Sunday night along the fringe of the storm but little accumulation is expected.

AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

This evening - Tonight...MVFR with periods of IFR conditions at northern terminals, as lingering snow showers move through this evening. Snow is expected to taper off this evening, with flight conditions improving to VFR by tonight. VFR at southern terminals, with potential periods of MVFR at KBGR, due to a stray snow shower. Ceilings begin to raise gradually during the overnight period. Gusty winds this evening around 20 - 25 kts, with a chance for KHUL to experience some LLWS tonight. Winds W/NW.

Saturday - Saturday Night...Generally VFR/MVFR at all terminals. Winds W/NW at 5-10 kts. Potential for some gusts up to 15kts in northern terminals Saturday morning.

Sunday...VFR. N wind around 10 kt over the north and 15 to 20 kt over the south.

Sunday night...VFR north. N wind around 10 kt north and 20 to 25 kt with higher gusts near the coast.

Monday...VFR except possibly MVFR near the coast early. N to NW wind 10 to 15 kt north and 20 kt with higher gusts along the coast early, diminishing in the afternoon.

Monday night...VFR. NW wind 5 to 10 kt

Tuesday...VFR. NW wind around 5 kt.

Tuesday night...VFR except possibly occasionally MVFR over the far north. NW wind 5 kt or less.

Wednesday...VFR except possibly occasionally MVFR over the far north. NW wind around 5 kt.

MARINE

Small Craft Advisory in effect through tonight for outer-waters. NW winds at 15-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts possible. Seas 3-4 ft. Freezing Spray advisory out for outer and intra- coastal waters until Saturday morning, with moderate freezing spray possible. Freezing Spray will become light during the day on Saturday. Winds from the NW tonight into Saturday. Winds shift W briefly Saturday afternoon, before becoming N/NE Saturday night.

A large and strong storm will be tracking around 300 NM SE of our coast Sunday into Monday. Although the storm will be tracking well offshore, it has a very large wind field which will impact the waters with a strong gale Sunday into early Monday. NNE wind gusts may approach storm force well offshore late Sunday through Sunday night. The strong winds and cold temperatures will produce some moderate freezing spray, especially closer to the coast where it will be coldest. Seas will build up to 8 ft Sunday then around 10 ft Sunday night into early Monday. Given the proximity of the storm and the NNE wind fetch, conditions will rapidly deteriorate the farther from the coast you venture.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for MEZ003-010. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ050-051. Freezing Spray Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for ANZ050>052. Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for ANZ050>052.