textproduct: Caribou

SYNOPSIS

An occluded front crosses the region early tonight, with a cold front then crossing. High pressure will cross the region later Saturday. A warm front crosses the region Saturday night through early Sunday, with a cold front then crossing late. High pressure crosses the region Monday. Low pressure crosses the region Tuesday then intensifies while exiting across the Maritimes Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

* Key Messages: 1) Strong to possibly damaging southerly winds expected for coastal and interior Downeast as well as the Bangor region this afternoon and evening. Scattered power outages are expected. Northern areas will see strong southerly winds this afternoon and evening, becoming westerly tonight. Isolated power outages in the north.

2) Rain up to 1" through this evening in combination with significant snowmelt may result in some localized water ponding in poorly drained areas.

3) A low chance of a flash freeze on roadways tonight as temperatures fall below freezing, mostly in the north.

What Has Changed: * 9 PM Update: Storm Warning on the waters has been dropped to a Gale warning * 8 PM Update: Washington county hazards have been allowed to expire as the front is exiting eastward into New Brunswick at this time. Caution is still advised if traveling as downed trees and powerlines may remain. * 7 PM Update: Advisory allowed to expire in Upper Penobscot Valley, and High Wind Warnings in Bangor region down through coastal Hancock county have been allowed to expire. The hazards further east remain for another hour as the front continues to push eastward. Advisories across the north remain behind the FROPA for gusty W winds behind the departing low through tonight. * Upgraded central Washington county to a High Wind Warning

Key Message 1... Current observations show a powerful low-level jet just overhead with wind speeds of over 90 kts moving through our our area. Winds mixing down from this jet are driving the strong gusts this afternoon and evening. The core of the jet will pass through the Downeast region between 3 and 6 PM resulting in the strongest gusts over the area during this time. Winds will be less farther north this afternoon and evening as the jet will be weaker over this region. The strongest winds are likely to be with frontal passage where vertical mixing will be enhanced. Currently watching a low potential for a weak squall line to pass through the north which could further increase the wind gust threat. A brief lull in the winds possible early tonight after frontal passage before westerly winds pick up, gusting to 40 kts, especially in the north. Further isolated power outages are possible. Winds gradually decrease during the day on Saturday.

Key Message 2... Rainfall up to 1 inch is still expected across the region. The highest totals are likely to be found in the Central Highlands. Significant snowpack loss has already been observed and may contribute to some localized ponding in vulnerable areas but widespread flooding is not expected.

Key Message 3... Behind the cold front, temperatures rapidly drop early tonight but don't reach freezing until just after midnight. Model soundings show some moderately drier air working in to the area behind the front which, in combination with gusty winds, may dry out the roadways before significant icing can occur. There is high confidence in temperatures dipping below freezing tonight so if roads are still wet they will become icy.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

A clipper system will cross northern Maine Sunday drawing a warm front across the region early, with a cold front following late. Light snow is likely across northern Maine Sunday with light accumulations possible, with a chance of light snow or rain Downeast. The surface system exits across the Maritimes Sunday night, with high pressure building toward the region late. Aloft, an upper trof crosses the region. Across northern areas, expect mostly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of snow showers early then partly cloudy. Expect partly cloudy skies Downeast. High pressure crosses the region Monday then begins to exit across the Maritimes Monday night. Expect partly sunny skies north, mostly sunny Downeast, Monday. Expect mostly clear/partly cloudy skies early Monday night with clouds then increasing. Slightly above normal level temperatures are expected Sunday, with slightly below normal level temperatures Monday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Low pressure tracking across Quebec province will draw a warm front across the region early Tuesday. Secondary low pressure then begins to develop across Downeast areas later Tuesday, which intensifies while exiting across the Maritimes Tuesday night. Precipitation, in the form of snow, will develop across the region Tuesday then persist into Tuesday night before tapering to snow showers late. Snow accumulations with this system are still uncertain, dependent on how rapidly the secondary low develops. The intensifying low exits east of Nova Scotia Wednesday, with high pressure building toward the region late. Could still have a slight chance of snow showers early Wednesday, mostly across the north and mountains. Otherwise, expect generally partly cloudy skies. High pressure should cross the region Thursday, then begin to exit across the Maritimes Thursday night while low pressure approaches from the west drawing a warm front toward the region. Expect partly cloudy skies early Thursday, with clouds then increasing. Light snow should begin to expand across the region Thursday night, possibly transitioning to a wintry mix late across Downeast areas. The low should then cross the region Friday, though specific details are still uncertain. Precipitation chance/types/amounts will be dependent on how this system eventually develops. Slightly below normal level temperatures are expected Tuesday through Thursday, with near normal level temperatures Friday.

AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

NEAR TERM: IFR at southern terminals through this evening and LIFR/IFR for northern terminals with rain. Conditions improve early tonight to MVFR and then VFR by midnight. A chance MVFR could hang on at northern terminals through early Saturday. VFR Saturday, then deteriorating to MVFR Saturday night. Strong south winds at 20 to 30 kts with gusts up to around 50 kts in the south and 40 kts in the north continue to rapidly shift W behind the frontal passage. Winds decrease overnight but remain gusty up to 40 kts. Winds decrease Saturday morning becoming S 5 to 10 kts Saturday night.

SHORT TERM:

Sunday...Across northern areas, MVFR/IFR occasional LIFR early with light snow then VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers. Across Downeast areas, VFR/MVFR. A chance of snow/rain early. Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots, becoming west.

Sunday night...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of snow showers north. VFR Downeast. West winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots, becoming northwest.

Monday through Monday night...VFR. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots Monday. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming variable 5 to 10 knots Monday night.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR early, then lowering to IFR/LIFR with snow. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east/southeast 10 to 15 knots.

Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, with snow. East/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming north/northwest.

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. A slight chance of snow showers early. North/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots.

MARINE

NEAR TERM: Storm conditions on the waters are expected to continue through early tonight before decreasing to gales with winds shifting to westerly. Winds decrease to small craft criteria early Saturday and finally decrease below all criteria Saturday afternoon. Winds increase to gales Saturday night. Seas peak at around 20ft on the outer waters early tonight before gradually subsiding to just above small craft advisory criteria Saturday evening. Seas increase again up to 10 ft Saturday night.

SHORT TERM: Gale force wind gusts possible Sunday into early Monday. Small craft advisory conditions later Monday into Monday night. A slight chance of rain Sunday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EST Saturday for MEZ001>006-010-031. MARINE...Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Saturday for ANZ050-051. Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Saturday for ANZ052.