textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Kept thunder at slight chance on Tuesday into Wednesday.

-Continued confidence in wetting rain on Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A wetting rain likely Tuesday night through Wednesday, to help with the recent dry conditions.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A wetting rain likely Tuesday night through Wednesday, to help with the recent dry conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure system approaches from the west Tuesday into Wednesday. Frontal passage is anticipated between Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing ample moisture along frontal boundary. Fronts pass along southern Maine, and as a result, Downeast Maine is more likely to see higher rainfall totals, with QPF outputs generally 0.75 to 1.25 inches. Northern Aroostook could see around 0.5 to 0.75 inches. There is a chance for some thunderstorms to move through Downeast Tuesday night into Wednesday along warm front boundary, and potentially in Central Highlands and Aroostook county Wednesday afternoon as trough axis pushes through. Grounds are relatively dry and rainfall will be steady, so not anticipating flooding concerns at this time.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 00z...VFR with VCSH at Aroostook terminals. Skies will be clearing for Downeast terminals. NW winds 10-15kts gusting 20-30kts.

Tonight...VFR. NW winds 10kts with gusts to 20-25kts at FVE. LLWS at FL020 out of the NW 35kts FVE, CAR and PQI.

Monday...VFR. W winds 5-15kts gusting to 20kts.

Monday night...VFR. S winds 5-10kts.

Tuesday night - Wednesday...MVFR/IFR in rain showers. TS possible Tues night into Wed afternoon. Fog at southern terminals possible early Wednesday morning. SSE winds 5-10 kts. Winds gusting 20 to 25 kts possible.

Wednesday night - Thursday...MVFR in rain showers. Residual TS possible late Wednesday night. Improving to VFR Thursday. WSW winds 5-10 kts. Winds gusting 15 to 20 kts possible.

Thursday night - Friday...VFR. WSW winds 5 - 10 kts.

MARINE

Small Craft Advisory expires by 18z this afternoon though seas around 5ft will linger for an hour or two. After seas drop, winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Monday night.

Conditions ramp above SCA criteria Tuesday night. Gales possible on Wednesday over the outer waters. Winds stay elevated until Wednesday night, and waves stay elevated until Thursday night. Waves peak to about 9-11 feet Wednesday evening. Chance for some thunderstorms Tuesday night, into Wednesday. Also a chance for fog early Wednesday morning. S/SE winds on Tuesday, shifting S/SW Wednesday evening.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029- 030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ050- 051.