textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 10:35PM UPDATE...Increasing probability of high end Gale Force Wind Gusts for the Sunday to Monday timeframe. Have opted to hoist a Gale Watch on all the Coastal Waters from 7AM Sunday to 7AM Monday. There still remains the possibility of Storm Force Wind Gusts on the Coastal Waters but Gales are nearly a slam dunk forecast.

- 8:00PM UPDATE...Marine headline changes at this update. Have extended the Intra-Coastal Small Craft Advisory till 1PM EST Friday. On the Coastal Waters the Small Craft Advisory has been extended till 1AM EST Saturday AM. Additionally, have extended the Freezing Spray Advisory for all of the waters through to 10AM EST Saturday. Have bumped up winds and wind gusts across the Moosehead Region tonight based on the latest 00z CAR RAOB. Latest sounding shows a mid level backdoor Maritime warm front working into the area with deep inversion between 820mb and 700mb. Winds in the mixed layer below the mid level inversion were up to 30kt and expect this to mix down over the higher terrain of the Moosehead Region which matches latest hi-res CAMs soundings. No other changes...

- Continued confidence in snowfall in the north tonight.

- Increased snow ratios a bit for snow tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) 1 to 3 inches of snow over northern Maine later today through tonight.

2) Dangerous wind chill temperatures possible tonight into Friday morning in western zones.

3) A large and strong storm well offshore has the potential to brush the Downeast coast with strong winds and possibly some snow Sunday into Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 3

A Large and strong storm well offshore has the potential to brush the Downeast coast with strong winds and possibly some snow Sunday into Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... A very large and powerful storm will take shape off the Southeast coast on Saturday. From there it will track northeast to a position southeast of Cape Cod on Sunday. The storm is expected to pass well southeast of our area late Sunday into Monday. However, given the size of its wind field, it is likely that strong northeast to north winds will impact the coast from Sunday into Monday with the highest winds from late Sunday through Sunday night. There is less confidence on whether or not the storm will be near enough to bring snow to the Downeast region with some forecast models expanding the snow field into the Downeast region and others keeping precipitation offshore. The best chance for any snow would be from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening. Precipitation would remain all snow and blowing snow could be an issue given the wind. Swell reaching the coast from the storm may reach 3 to 5 ft late Sunday, 5 to 7 ft Sunday night and 7 to 9 ft on Monday. Rocks may become icy and slippery from spash-over due to the cold conditions. Observers of the surf are advised to keep their distance.

AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

This afternoon - Tonight:

00z UPDATE...Have TEMPO/PROB30 groups for tonight at the northern terms due to the potential for reduce vsby from -SN to bring vsby to IFR. Confidence is low-mdt overnight hence the PROB30 group. Winds generally 280-310 5-10kt. Tomorrow expecting MVFR conditions to return to BKN VFR with increasing W-NW winds of 10-15kt with gusts up to 25kt possible. For Southern Terms tonight expecting VFR conditons 270-300 winds 5-10kt. For tomorrow expect BKN VFR conditions and W-NW winds 10-15kt with gusts up to 25kt.

Previous Discussion... MVFR/IFR at northern terminals as snow showers move in tonight. Gusty W/NW winds, with gusts around 25-30kts possible this evening. Cloud ceilings drop quickly tonight as clouds move in from the snow. Snow showers and any fluffy snow blowing around can reduce visibility. Southern terminals generally VFR, with some gusty W/NW winds, gusting around 20kts this evening, Cloud ceilings do trend downwards overnight, but generally stay just above VFR conditions.

Friday Friday night: MVFR at northern terminals Friday morning as snow showers move out. Otherwise, generally VFR. Winds W/NW around 5-10 kts, with gusts up to 20 kts possible.

Saturday...VFR. W wind 5 to 10 kt.

Saturday night...VFR. NW wind around 5 kt.

Sunday...VFR. N wind around 10 kt over the north and 20 to 25 kt over the south.

Sunday night...VFR north. VFR or MVFR south. N wind around 10 kt north and 25 kt with higher gusts near the coast.

Monday...VFR except possibly MVFR near the coast early. N to NW wind 10 to 15 kt north and 20 to 25 kt with higher gusts along the coast early, diminishing in the afternoon.

Monday night...VFR. NW wind 5 to 10 kt.

Tuesday...VFR. NW wind around 5 kt.

MARINE

Small Craft advisory conditions expected for the outer waters into Friday night. Small Craft conditions over the intra- coastals late this evening. Light freezing spray this evening, becoming moderate freezing spray tonight into tomorrow afternoon. Seas around 3-5 ft over outer waters expected. Winds from the W/NW.

A large and powerful storm off the coast will likely impact the waters late this weekend. Winds will increase to gale and then possibly storm on Sunday. Gale or Storm force winds will continue Sunday night and gradually diminish on Monday. Seas will build up to 10 ft Sunday, 12 ft Sunday night, then subside to 10 ft by late Monday. Conditions late this weekend will dramatically deteriorate and become increasingly dangerous the further off the coast you are.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for MEZ003-004- 010. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for ANZ050-051. Freezing Spray Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for ANZ050>052. Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for ANZ050>052. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ052.