textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

-Added isolated thunder to this afternoon over the northwest.

-Added isolated thunder over the coast and waters late tonight along warm front.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Winter storm bringing heavy mixed precipitation to northern Maine tonight. The commute tomorrow morning commute will be extremely hazardous.

2) A fast moving low will bring some snow Friday night into Saturday with the potential for a few inches, especially over central and northern areas. This could cause messy and slippery conditions for Saturday morning travel.

3) Snow will overspread the area Sunday evening, changing to rain from south to north across the region overnight Sunday night. Strong south winds are possible with the system on Monday. This could result in messy travel, mainly north, Monday morning, and some isolated power outages on Monday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Winter storm bringing heavy mixed precipitation to northern Maine tonight. The commute tomorrow morning commute will be extremely hazardous.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Wintry precip continues over central and northern areas tonight. Lightning strikes have been noted over portions of the north in elevated instability along inverted trough and have added isolated thunder into the North Woods thru 21z this afternoon.

Sfc temps remain blo freezing north of Bangor, with 20s over the far north and right around the freezing mark in cold air damming areas with all rain in the Bangor Region and throughout interior Downeast.

Snow is still falling in the St. John Valley with points further south switching over to sleet as of 18z. Warm nose continues to lift thru the region this evening and will eventually switch all areas over to sleet by 00z.

As the warm layer accelerates north, sleet will transition over to freezing rain after midnight tonight. Still expecting between 1-2 inches of sleet acrs nrn Aroostook with around 1 inch further to the south, ice accums look to range from two to three tenths of an inch tonight. Have not extended the northern Winter Storm at this point, although quite a bit of the latest guidance suggests that freezing rain continues until closer to 15z Thursday. This will be something for later shifts to consider if trends continue.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A fast moving low will bring some snow Friday night into Saturday with the potential for a few inches, especially over central and northern areas. This could cause messy and slippery conditions for Saturday morning travel.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A clipper type system approaches from the west Friday and will cross the region Friday night before moving east into New Brunswick province on Saturday. Still some uncertainty regarding the exact track of the low, but it appears as if it should be cold enough for mainly all snow to the north of the Bangor region. Not out of the question we could see advisory level snowfall across northeast portions of the forecast area by Saturday morning. Travel could be impacted late Friday night into Saturday morning. Across the Bangor region and Downeast areas, precipitation is expected to start as snow, and then mix with, or change to rain later Friday night, before ending Saturday morning. As mentioned above, there still is some uncertainty regarding the low track, which could ultimately have an impact on precipitation types. But at this time, the most significant impacts with regard to snowfall appear to be north of the Bangor region. The snow should taper to scattered snow showers later Saturday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Snow will overspread the area Sunday evening, changing to rain from south to north across the region overnight Sunday night. Strong south winds are possible with the system on Monday. This could result in messy travel, mainly north, Monday morning, and some isolated power outages on Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure will track northeast through the Great Lakes region Sunday night and intensify as it tracks into Quebec province during Monday. Precipitation associated with this system will develop across the region in the form of snow Sunday night. However, a strong low level jet will transport warm and moist air northward across the region with precipitation changing to all rain across the entire region during Monday. Although this system is still several days away, it has the potential to bring locally heavy rain to the region during Monday. In addition, gusty south winds could potentially result in isolated power outages across Downeast areas.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Tonight...IFR/LIFR continues tonight in mixed precipitation for Aroostook terminals. Downeast terminals will see rain and fog impacting vsbys. LLWS between 03-15z at FL020 from the southwest at 35-40kts.

Thursday...IFR/LIFR early before improving to VFR by afternoon. S 5-15kts becoming W 10-15kts gusting to 25kts in the afternoon.

Thursday night...VFR. W 5-15kts gusts to 20kts.

Friday...VFR.

Friday night...MVFR or lower in snow north and snow/rain south.

Saturday...MVFR or lower early, then becoming VFR.

Saturday night and Sunday...VFR.

Sunday night and Monday...MVFR or lower in snow changing to rain. Gusty S to SE wind.

MARINE

Small craft conditions tonight will increase to gales on the outer waters late and continue into the morning hours. Seas increase to between 5-10 feet by Thursday morning before dropping but remaining above SCA levels through Thursday night.

SCA conditions are expected Friday, with gale force conditions possible Friday night through Saturday evening. Gale Force conditions are then possible Sunday night and Monday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Winter Storm Warning until 8 AM EDT Thursday for MEZ001-002. Winter Storm Warning until 2 AM EDT Thursday for MEZ003>006. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for MEZ010-011-031-032. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ050-051. Gale Warning from 1 AM to noon EDT Thursday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for ANZ052.