textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 10:15PM UPDATE...adjusted temperatures lower in many northern zones due to calm winds and clear skies. Made adjustments to the start times of the Marine Headlines due to hi-res model guidance changes this evening which are discussed below. Aviation updates were made due to SKC conditions. No other major changes.

- Confidence has increased slightly in occasional light snow from Wednesday into Thursday night and that a winter storm could bring accumulating snow from late Friday through Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A strong storm passing well to our southeast will bring gusty winds and patchy blowing and drifting snow to the Downeast region Sunday into Monday.

2) Occasional light snow is possible from Wednesday into Thursday night. This could impact travel, especially across the North.

3) There is potential for a winter storm to bring widespread accumulating snow from late Friday through Saturday. This could impact weekend travel plans.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A strong storm passing well to our southeast will bring gusty winds and patchy blowing and drifting snow to the Downeast region Sunday into Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Gusty northeast winds Sunday and Sunday night, especially across Down east areas, where gusts up to 40 mph will be possible.

Intensifying low pressure will track northeast tonight and Sunday, then to the south of Nova Scotia Sunday night. The storm is expected to pass far enough to the east that we are not expecting any measurable snow with this system. The main impacts will be the increasingly gusty northeast winds Sunday and Sunday night, especially across Down east areas, where winds could gust as high as 40 mph at times. There could be some patches of blowing snow, but with no newly fallen snow expected, this is not expected to have any significant impacts.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Occasional light snow is possible from Wednesday into Thursday night. This could impact travel, especially across the North.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A couple of fast moving northern stream shortwave troughs rotating around the base of a cutoff low centered over Hudson Bay, similar to a clipper system, could bring periods of on and off light snow from Wednesday into Thursday night. One of the challenges with this time frame is that no one model seems to have a decent handle on these shortwave troughs. So far this winter, snowfall has generally exceeded model projections with similar type systems, so have bumped up pops a bit above the NBM to reflect this. For now it appears the best chance on average for anything beyond light snow fall is across the North during this time frame, but with uncertainty as to the exact track and strength of these systems, its too early to specify amounts and what/if any impacts may be had at this time.

Highs Wednesday and lows Wednesday night should be with in a few degrees of either side of normal. Highs Thursday and lows Thursday night should be a few degrees below normal.

KEY MESSAGE 3... There is potential for a winter storm to bring widespread accumulating snow from late Friday through Saturday. This could impact weekend travel plans.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Models agree that shortwave ridging early Friday should give way to an approaching shortwave Friday afternoon. This should be followed by the main axis of the cutoff low over Hudson Bay approach Friday night, then begin to push into Maine Saturday. At the surface this should result in a coastal low developing off the mid-Atlantic/New England Coast on Saturday.

The result could be wide spread snowfall across all of Northern and Eastern Maine from late Friday through Saturday. While, there still quite a bit of spread of models on the exact timing, strength and orientation of this system, it does appear the likelihood of measurable snowfall, and to a lesser extent plowable snow, is increasing with this system. Highs should be below normal and lows above normal with this system.

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Tonight and Sunday...VFR with SKC conditions and FEW-SCT MVFR cigs possible at northern terms overnight. Light and variable winds tonight. NE wind increasing to 10 to 20 kt on Sunday with gusts as high as 30 to 35 kt, mainly KBGR/KBHB.

Sunday night...VFR. N to NE wind gusts 35 kt possible, mainly KBHB.

Monday-Tuesday night...VFR, except for MVFR or lower possible Monday at southern terminals with BLSN. NW winds G15-25KT probable Monday diminishing to 10KT or less by Tuesday morning.

Wednesday-Thursday...Conditions possibly varying between VFR and MVFR or lower with any light snow, with the best chance at northern terminals. LLWS possible late Wednesday/Wednesday night. WNW-NW winds G15-20KT possible Thursday.

MARINE

UPDATE...Freezing Spray Advisory is now in effect from 4AM to 1PM EST Sunday for all the waters. The Gale Warning is now in effect from 9AM Sunday to 10AM Monday for The Coastal Waters and Noon Sunday to 10AM Monday for the Intra-Coastal Waters. For the Freezing Spray Advisory, moderate accumulation of freezing spray expected. For the Gale Warning, north winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt and seas 6 to 9 ft expected.

The gale warning may need to be extended through the day on Monday on the coastal ocean waters with future issuances. Conditions should improve to SCA level on the intra-coastal waters. SCA conditions probable through Monday night on the coastal ocean waters, with conditions improving to sub-SCA levels on the intra-coastal waters. All waters should see sub- SCA conditions Tuesday-Wednesday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ050>052. Gale Warning from 9 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ050- 051. Gale Warning from noon Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ052.