textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

-Reduced chance for thunder Saturday afternoon, particularly over Northern Maine

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm and dry weather is expected today. The next chance for showers is Friday afternoon across the north and Saturday for the rest of the area as a cold front approaches.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm and dry weather is expected today. The next chance for showers is Friday afternoon across the north and Saturday for the rest of the area as a cold front approaches.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A cold front will be approaching from the north today but a wave develops along it and hangs it up just to our north. Most of the clouds and associated precip appears to be anafrontal with max heating occurring before clouds move in. This may bring the warmest temps of the year in some locations, with other locations rivaling temps from May 20th of this year in the middle to upper 80s.

Dry weather expected into Friday afternoon as subsidence with ridge is the dominant feature. Weak low pressure moves in Friday afternoon and with instability present along with fairly steep low-level lapse rates cannot rule out isolated thunder, mainly twd the Central Highlands. Potential for organized storms looks slim to none and will be more of the pulse variety.

The next low pressure system approaches late Friday which may lead to a few showers and thunderstorm but overall coverage and intensity will be limited by dry air associated with high pressure just to the east. The most significant chance for showers and thunderstorms is Saturday and Saturday night as the cold front of the low approaches from the west. The showery nature of the system will mean precipitation will be more hit or miss, but relatively high atmospheric moisture content for this time of year, near the 95th percentile, means some showers and thunderstorms may produce some brief heavy rain. Limited chance for storms overall but greatest chance is over central and western areas during the day on Saturday and Downeast Saturday night. Severe storms are not expected as limited instability means any storms will likely be relatively weak.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Today-Thursday night...VFR all terminals. SSW winds 5-10kts early this morning, increasing to 10-15kts with ocnl gust to 20kts. BHB and BGR likely to see shift to the south in the afternoon from the sea breeze. Winds diminish with sunset but maintain around 5kts from the SW. LLWS possible Thursday evening at Aroostook terminals.

Friday...VFR early with MVFR possible at northern terminals in showers, and possibly a thunderstorms. Light and variable winds becoming S 5-10kts Downeast terminals with sea breeze in the afternoon.

Friday night-Saturday...Mainly VFR at Downeast terminals except for a slight chance of showers/thunder late Saturday. MVFR/IFR conditions at Aroostook terminals in rain showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Light SE winds overnight increasing to 5 to 10 kts during the day.

Saturday night...MVFR/IFR in showers. N/NE winds 5-10kts

Sunday...MVFR/IFR in showers Downeast terminals, improving to VFR late. N/NE winds 5-15kts.

Sunday night-Monday...VFR with N/NE winds 5-10kts.

MARINE

No headlines anticipated through Friday as winds and seas remain below small craft levels. Generally below small craft advisory conditions Friday night through Monday aside from a 50% chance of marginal SCA conditions on the coastal waters Sunday afternoon through Sunday night.

CLIMATE

Temps this afternoon look to approach record highs at two climate sites:

Site Forecast Record Caribou 8788 (1967) Houlton 8990 (1967) Bangor 8892 (1930) Millinocket 8994 (1919)

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.