textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

-Cancelled current small craft and issued a new one for later tonight through early Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Much below normal level temperatures Sunday and Monday. The coldest temperatures will occur Sunday night into Monday. Temperatures will recover Tuesday into Wednesday.

2) A light to possibly moderate snow accumulation is likely for Bangor and Downeast Maine Tuesday night, which could lead to travel impacts.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Much below normal level temperatures Sunday and Monday. The coldest temperatures will occur Sunday night into Monday. Temperatures will recover Tuesday into Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A strong cold front will cross the region early tonight. Very little precipitation with the front, with just an isolated rain/snow shower. Arctic air in the wake of the front will bring much below normal level temperatures to the region Sunday into Monday. High temperatures Sunday will range from around 10 to 15 north, to the mid to upper 20s Downeast. Isolated to scattered snow showers will also occur Sunday. Low temperatures Sunday night will range from around 10 to 15 below zero north, to around zero to 5 below Downeast. Apparent temperatures could reach Cold Weather Advisory levels across northern portions of the forecast area Sunday night. High temperatures Monday will range from around 10 to 15 north, to the upper teens to around 20 Downeast. Low temperatures Monday night will range from around zero to 5 below north, with single digits above zero Downeast. Temperatures will recover to near normal levels Tuesday, reaching slightly above normal levels Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A light to possibly moderate snow accumulation is likely for Bangor and Downeast Maine Tuesday night, which could lead to travel impacts.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A small northern stream shortwave trough will phase with the subtropical jet over the eastern Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon, with diffluence aloft favoring the development of a surface low pressure over the Gulf of Maine Tuesday evening. Model guidance varies with how quickly the low will develop and the associated precipitation field north of it. Deterministic, ensemble, and AI generally has about a quarter inch of QPF across Downeast, quickly tapering to a trace or less north of the Katahdin Region. Depending on the exact track and strength of the low rain could mix in on the immediate coast with heavier QPF reaching farther north, or a weaker solution such as the Canadian would keep all snow on the coast but less QPF, especially further inland. Probabilities of at least 4 inches of snow are generally 15 to 40 percent across interior Downeast into the Penobscot Valley, indicating potential for heavier snow scenarios if the surface low is stronger. Accumulations between 1 and 4 inches are most likely across Downeast and the Bangor area, mainly overnight Tuesday night for the tail end of the Tuesday evening commute and snow on roads possibly lingering for the Wednesday morning commute. Overall impacts are not expected to be significant, but snow covered roads could cause some travel difficulties, especially if some of the heavier QPF/snow scenarios occur.

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Cold front with an abrupt wind shift from S to NW is occurring this evening, around 1z at FVE first and eventually around 4/5z at BGR/BHB. LLWS will diminish as the front passes. Can't rule out brief MVFR with the front from PQI N, with perhaps an isolated shower, with otherwise, remaining VFR before and after the frontal passage. Winds will be NW around 10 kts behind the front with a few higher gusts.

For Sunday, mostly VFR, though can't rule out a few periods of MVFR ceilings at any site. That said, feel that VFR should be the most common condition, and went with this in the TAFs. NW winds 10-15 kts with gusts 15-25 kts.

Sunday night, VFR with NW winds 5-10 kts.

Monday/Monday Night: VFR. WNW winds around 10 kts gusting to 20kts, becoming light out of the SW overnight.

Tuesday: VFR. SW winds 10 to 15 kts gusting to 30 kts.

Tuesday Night: MVFR developing, with IFR or lower possible for BGR and Downeast airports in snow. SW winds 5 to 10 kts.

Wednesday/Wednesday Night: MVFR possible, mainly north, otherwise VFR. WNW winds 5 to 15 kts, shifting SW and decreasing slightly during the evening.

Thursday: VFR likely. N wind 5 to 15 kts.

MARINE

Small craft advisory conditions re-develop on all the waters late tonight then persist into Sunday night. Isolated/scattered snow showers Sunday. Light freezing spray early Sunday. Moderate freezing spray Sunday night into Monday.

Winds, seas, and freezing spray will decrease below advisory levels on Monday, remaining below criteria into Monday evening. Winds and seas increase again late Monday night, with winds likely reaching gale force by Tuesday (80 percent chance over the outer waters, 60 percent chance over the intracoastal waters). Seas during this period are expected to be 4 to 9 feet, with the highest seas farther offshore. Winds and seas decrease to advisory levels Tuesday night into early Wednesday, before falling below advisory levels later Wednesday. Beyond Wednesday uncertainty increases regarding the timing and strength of a push of south winds. Another period of gale or SCA conditions is possible late week.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ050>052.