textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Updated aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers today into Monday morning. Rainfall will have minimal impact on the drought.

2) Patchy/areas of frost possible across northern areas Monday night.

3) Chance for rain showers by late next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers today into Monday morning. Rainfall will have minimal impact on the drought.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure begins to develop in the Mid-Atlantic region and a cold front crosses Quebec Province today. Clouds will increase early this morning, with showers then approaching from the west. The low will reach the Gulf of Maine later today, while the cold front approaches the Saint Lawrence Valley. Models have been trending offshore with the better upper level support and better precipitable water values. Current indications are that the heavier rains should remain across the waters of the Gulf of Maine, possibly clipping Downeast areas. Other showers are possible across northern areas in advance of the approaching cold front. Although instability is limited, could also have isolated/scattered thunderstorms across northern areas this afternoon/evening. The low exits across the Maritimes tonight, while the cold front crosses the region and an upper trof approaches from the west. Shower chances will persist across the region tonight. The upper trof then crosses the region Monday keeping a chance of mostly early showers. Rainfall with this system will have minimal impact on the drought, with only around a third of an inch expect for Downeast and less to the north.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Patchy/areas of frost possible across northern areas Monday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... High pressure will build across the region behind the cold front Monday, bringing clear skies and light winds. This will result in favorable conditions for radiational cooling. Low temperatures will range from the mid to upper 30s across much of northern Maine, with some locations in the North Woods cooling down into the low 30s. Patchy/areas of frost are possible Monday night across the northern areas, particularly in colder valleys.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Chance for rain showers by late next week.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure system to the far north moves eastward, pushing a front through New England late next week. Models disagree on the timing of the pressure system, with the ECMWF generally moving the system through the region by the end of the week, and the GFS moves the system through later into the weekend. Not anticipating enough rainfall to provide drought improvement at this time.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Today...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR, early. MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, during the afternoon. Scattered/numerous showers. Isolated/scattered thunderstorms possible this afternoon. South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Tonight...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, early. VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR, late. Numerous/scattered showers north. Isolated/scattered showers Downeast. An evening thunderstorm also possible. South winds around 10 knots, becoming southwest/west.

Monday...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR, early with a chance of showers. VFR during the afternoon. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots.

Monday night-Wednesday night...VFR. Chance for valley fog early Tuesday morning. Light NW winds Monday night become S Tuesday, and shift W/SW by Wednesday. Light and variable winds Wednesday night.

Thursday...Mainly VFR. Chance for MVFR in rain showers. Light and variable winds.

MARINE

Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels through tonight. Showers and patchy fog today into Monday, with S winds today and NW winds Monday.

All waters should experience sustained winds less than 15 kt, gusts less than 20 kt and seas 4 ft or less through Thursday. N winds Monday night, becoming S/SW Tuesday evening into Wednesday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.