textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Extended Small Craft Advisory through 7pm Saturday.

Update for 00z Aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A wintry mix is expected Saturday morning and could result in some travel difficulties on untreated surfaces.

2) Temperatures will remain at above normal levels early next week, which should lead to significant snow melt and rotting of river/lake ice.

3) Low pressure crossing the region Wednesday could bring snow, rain and a wintry mix to the forecast area.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A wintry mix is expected Saturday morning and could result in some travel difficulties on untreated surfaces.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A large low pressure system will cross the Great Lakes tonight and move towards the region Saturday. The warm front will be the first to enter the region, which will switch winds to an onshore flow. The warm air aloft will create a wintry mix for the majority of the region Saturday morning. This wintry mix will include freezing rain and sleet causing travel difficulties during the morning commute. As the S flow increases, warm air will surge into the region, changing all precip to rain. In addition, the temps in the 40s will melt the majority of the ice that fell in the morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures will remain at above normal levels early next week, which should lead to significant snow melt and rotting of river/lake ice.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Temperatures will remain at above normal levels early next week. Could still have a chance of rain showers Sunday, with dry conditions then expected Monday/Tuesday. High temperatures Sunday will range from the mid 40s north to around 50 to the lower 50s Downeast. High temperatures Monday will range from around 50 to the lower 50s north, to the mid to upper 50s interior Downeast. Sightly cooler upper 40s to lower 50s will occur along the Downeast coast with onshore winds from the colder waters of the Gulf of Maine. High temperatures Tuesday will range through the 40s north, to the lower to mid 50s Downeast. These temperatures could help to significantly erode the snow pack. Downeast areas could loose the entire remaining snow pack. Additionally, even northern portions of the region could see a significant reduction in the snow pack. These temperatures will also likely lead to the rot of river and lake ice.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Low pressure crossing the region Wednesday could bring snow, rain and a wintry mix to the forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... A cold front will begin cross the region Tuesday before stalling somewhere across the forecast area. Low pressure will begin to approach from the southwest along the front Tuesday night, with precipitation starting to expand across the region in advance of the low. The low will move along the front, crossing the region, Wednesday. Precipitation types and amounts with this system will be dependent on the eventual location of the front and track of the low. Snow, rain or a wintry mix are possible with this storm. However, due the uncertainty with the eventual frontal location and low track, for now the forecast remains a snow/rain mix.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Tonight/Saturday...MVFR early this evening, mainly at HUL and PQI before all terminals diminish to MVFR cigs by 02z. IFR restrictions after 10z in -FZRA at all terminals. May see LIFR fog at Downeast terminals early Saturday morning. FZRA changes to RA after 13z at BGR with LIFR remaining throughout the day at BHB. Aroostook terminals switch to rain between 15-17z Saturday. IFR/LIFR during the day at northern terminals.

S winds 5-10 kts. Saturday, S winds 10-15 kts with gusts up to 30 kts. Saturday night, SSW winds 5-10 kts. LLWS on Saturday at all terminals.

IFR/LIFR in rain and fog for Saturday night.

Sunday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, early. VFR/MVFR late. A chance of rain showers. Patchy fog early. South/southwest winds around 10 knots.

Sunday night...VFR/MVFR north. VFR Downeast. Southwest winds around 10 knots.

Monday through Tuesday...VFR. Southwest/south winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Monday. South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots, becoming west/southwest Monday night. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Tuesday.

Tuesday night...VFR early. MVFR/IFR late with a chance of a wintry mix. North/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots.

Wednesday...Rain, snow or a wintry mix dependent on the eventual track of low pressure. MVFR/IFR early, then IFR/LIFR. Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

MARINE

A Small Craft Advisory remains until this evening, then winds should calm tonight below SCA. Seas will be marginal. Winds and seas will increase to SCA levels Saturday morning, then increase to gale force by Saturday night. A Gale Watch has been issued for the outer waters.

A few wind gusts could approach gale levels early Sunday. Otherwise, small craft advisory conditions are expected Sunday. Conditions should be below small craft advisory levels Sunday night. Small craft advisory level conditions re-develop again Monday then persist into Monday night. A chance of rain showers and patchy fog Sunday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-031-032. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ050-051. Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for ANZ050-051.