textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Canceled the Dense Fog Advisory for Central Penobscot, Southern Aroostook and Northern Washington counties and extended it until 8am for interior Downeast.

- Updated for 12z aviation discussion

- Little more rain forecast with Sunday - Monday system

KEY MESSAGES

1) Areas of dense fog this morning Downeast, Bangor Region and into Southern Aroostook may impact travel with low visibilities.

2) There is the potential for widespread rainfall from Sunday into Monday. It is not certain how much, if any, relief this could bring to the developing drought at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Areas of dense fog this morning Downeast and into the Bangor Region may impact travel with low visibilities.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Dense fog has dissipated in the Upper Penobscot Valley as well as southern Aroostook but continues to linger over the Bangor Region and into portions of interior Downeast along with coastal Downeast. Have extended Dense Fog Advisory through 8am for these areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...There is the potential for areawide rainfall from Sunday into Monday. It is not certain how much, if any, relief this could bring to the developing drought at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure system approaches from the Great Lakes on Sunday, moving into Quebec by Monday. Additionally, a surface low pressure system slides along the coast on Sunday, bringing some additional moisture along the coast. Global models continue to lack favorable instabilty for severe storms, with most atmospheric soundings just looking moist. PWATs roughly in the 1.75 range, which is above the 90th percentile for the daily high PWAT value around Caribou. Regardless, not anticipating relief from drought with these showers, as most model guidance is keeping precipitation totals modest. Highest rain totals anticipated along the Downeast coast, with potential to receive 1/2 to 1 inch of rain. Convection along frontal boundary could result in some higher rain totals, but will need to monitor how regional models pick up on this system to see if environment will be favorable enough to support thunderstorms. Best chance for thunderstorm development is Sunday afternoon. As of now, high confidence in rain falling, but lower confidence in how much, and the potential for thunderstorms.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Today...After early IFR/LIFR in fog at BGR and BHB mainly VFR conditions expected today. Light W winds 5-10kt becoming SW late morning at BHB with the seabreeze. VCSH for FVE, CAR and PQI in the afternoon but confidence in low.

Tonight...VFR. Low confidence in BCFG/BR reducing vsby. Light and variable winds.

Friday...VFR. Light N-NW winds less than 5kt.

Friday night-Saturday: VFR. Rain begins to move into KBHB and KBGR Saturday afternoon. Chance for overnight valley fog Friday night. E/SE winds at 5-10 kts.

Saturday night-Sunday: MVFR/IFR in rain showers. Slight chance for thunderstorms Saturday night, and Sunday afternoon. E winds Saturday night at 5-10 kts, becoming SE on Sunday.

Sunday night-Monday: MVFR/IFR in rain showers. Slight chance for thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday afternoon. SE winds at 5-10 kts Sunday night, becoming SW on Monday.

MARINE

Winds/seas remaining less than 25 kts/5 ft through Saturday, then a chance (about 20 percent) of winds or seas reaching 25 kts/5 ft Sunday/Monday. Fog likely the next few nights. Rain moves in Saturday, with a chance for thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MEZ015>017- 029-030. MARINE...None.