textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

550 am update... Gale Warning has been dropped to a Small Craft Advisory on the intracoastal zone.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Accumulating snow for Downeast on Wednesday may impact travel for the evening commute.

2) Snow showers possible across the north on Thursday may briefly coat roads and result in reduced visibility at times.

3) A weak occluded front crossing the north may bring some light snow to mainly northern areas Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. This may create some travels difficulties during the Saturday evening commute.

4) Arctic air arriving late in the weekend will result in frigid temperatures and bitter cold wind chills to begin the first week of March.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Accumulating snow for Downeast on Wednesday may impact travel for the evening commute.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure system approaching from the northwest will likely result in weak triple point developing along the coast on Wednesday afternoon. Low will result in enhanced convergence over Downeast with snowfall accumulations anywhere from 1-3 inches over coastal and interior Downeast. Rain may mix with snow along the coast and outer islands with warm advection just ahead of the weak surface low moving in late in the afternoon. Accumulating snow will come to an end late Wednesday evening as system moves into NB.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Snow showers possible across the north on Thursday may briefly coat roads and result in reduced visibility at times.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure will be lifting out to the northeast on Thursday as strong cold advection follows with gusty westerly winds. The cold air may surge into the mid levels a bit quicker than it does in the low levels resulting in some steep lapse rates up to 6K ft and some minor instability. This could result in a few snow showers, especially from the Northern Highlands east across east central areas. Any snow showers could briefly cover the roads and cause reduced visibility. Falling temperatures late in the day may result in some icy patches as wet surfaces freeze.

KEY MESSAGE 3... A weak occluded front crossing the north may bring some light snow to mainly northern areas Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. This may create some travels difficulties during the Saturday evening commute.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure tracking from the James Bay region of Canada into central Quebec on Saturday will pull an occluded front toward our region Saturday afternoon. A tight gradient between the approaching front and high pressure moving off to the southeast will bring strong gusty southerly winds ahead of the front. This will advect warmer air up from the south with high temperatures across most of the area making a run for 40. As light precipitation begins Saturday afternoon, a bit of rain may mix in with some snow. Boundary layer temperatures should then become cold enough for mainly snow, at least over the north and the highlands, late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Currently, it looks like only a light accumulation of snow is likely. The slushy wet snow may result in some slippery roads over northern and western areas.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Arctic air arriving late in the weekend will result in frigid temperatures and bitter cold wind chills to begin the first week in March.

KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION... An Arctic front is expected to cross the area on Sunday followed by a fresh surge of Arctic air. Highs Sunday from near 20 north to the low to mid 30s Downeast on Sunday will be followed by falling temperatures Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Lows Sunday night will drop to around 10 below north and around zero Downeast with wind chills in the 20s below and teens below early Monday morning. Highs Monday from the low teens north to the low 20s Downeast will be around 15 degrees below normal for the beginning of March. Gusty winds will continue to combine with the frigid temperatures to result in bitter cold wind chills and the risk of frostbite on exposed skin.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions for all terminals with tempo MVFR for the next several hours at FVE. Main impact will be DRSN over the runways this morning before nw winds diminish enough by afternoon.

NW winds gust at all terminals between 20-30kts today before relaxing after 22z this afternoon.

Conditions diminish to MVFR/IFR Wednesday morning with snow moving in from the west. May see BHB mix with rain late in the day Wednesday. Southerly winds increase to between 5-10kts on Wednesday.

Wednesday night...IFR north and MVFR south. SW wind around 5 kt.

Thursday...MVFR north except briefly IFR in any snow showers. VFR south. W wind around 10 kt with high gusts.

Thursday night...VFR. W winds around 5 kt north and NW winds around 5 kt across the south.

Friday...Friday...VFR. W wind around 5 kt.

Friday night...VFR possibly dropping to MVFR at times north and VFR south. N wind around 5 kt.

Saturday...VFR dropping to MVFR then IFR north. VFR dropping to MVFR south. S wind 10 to 15 kt. SW wind shear likely at 2K ft.

MARINE

Gale warnings in effect this morning for all waters will diminish to small craft conditions by mid-morning. Winds should rapidly drop below 25kts this afternoon but seas will remain elevated above 5ft through late evening. A brief break in SCA condition Wednesday morning before increasing Wednesday afternoon.

A SCA may be needed Wednesday evening for wind gusts up to 25 kt. A SCA may be needed again Saturday into Saturday night for gusts up to 25 kt. A SCA may need to continue Sunday and Monday with an increased chance for freezing spray as Arctic air moves in.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ052.