textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Sped up the departure of rain Monday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread soaking rain from Sunday night into Memorial Day. This could aid in mitigating ongoing drought conditions across portions of the region.

2) Continued unsettled weather through the week with multiple systems coming into the area.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread soaking rain from Sunday night into Memorial Day. This could aid in mitigating ongoing drought conditions across portions of the region.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Ridge axis and dry air will be exiting to the east on Sunday. As the airmass moistens expect that rain will begin wrn sxns of the area late in the afternoon and evening. Cold air damming overnight will essentially split the rain between south and north early in the overnight hours before moisture conglomerates over the CWA.

A cold front will cross the area during the day on Monday, bringing a wetting rain across the region. Total rainfall amounts will be highest along the coast as a coastal low develops along the surface trough, enhancing forcing along the coast. Even still, total rainfall will likely remain below an inch through the area, though overcast skies and increased moisture will limit evaporation and add to the surface moisture.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued unsettled weather through the week with multiple systems coming into the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Per previous discussion: A strong upper level ridge over the center of the country will throw multiple shortwaves into our area over the next week. The ridge will reach all the way into northern Canada, while our area will be on the trough side of this pattern. This will bring multiple rounds of rain through the week. Models differ on the exact timing of each of these rounds, which will depend on the strength and position of this pattern.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Tonight...VFR. Light and variable winds overnight.

Sunday...VFR, diminishing to MVFR BGR/BHB late afternoon. S winds 5-15kts.

Sunday night...MVFR/IFR in rain and fog. S winds 5-15kts.

Monday...MVFR/IFR due to rain. Winds SE at 5-10 kt becoming light and variable in the afternoon.

Monday night-Tuesday...VFR, except for a brief period of MVFR possible Tuesday afternoon in any stronger showers at northern terminals . W winds 5-10 kts.

Tuesday night-Wednesday...Trending to MVFR as rain moves through the area. Light S winds Tue night, then NW winds 5-10 kts Wed.

Thursday...Conditions improving to VFR, though lingering MVFR possible in any remaining showers. N winds 5 to 10 kts.

MARINE

Winds and seas will remain below small craft levels through Sunday evening. Winds will approach marginal gusts late Sunday night over the coastal waters with seas increasing above 5ft around daybreak Monday morning.

Small craft advisory conditions on Monday with wind gusts around 25 kts and seas 6 to 8 ft. Rain showers may limit visibility, with a slight chance for a thunderstorm Monday night. Conditions will then improve into the day on Tuesday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029- 030. MARINE...None.