textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Continued uncertainty in exact precipitation types Friday night into Saturday, but total liquid accumulations should be light.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Light snow likely across far northern Maine tonight followed by sharply colder temperatures Thursday.

2) Light mixed precipitation Friday night into Saturday, potentially creating slick travel conditions.

3) Above normal temperatures dominate through next week, and could lead to snow melt and river/lake ice rot.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Light snow likely across far northern Maine tonight followed by sharply colder temperatures Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A cold front boundary will sink south across the region tonight and into Thursday morning. For tonight, as the sharp temp boundary moves south, the surface temps in the north will drop drastically, reaching below freezing after sunset. In addition, high res QPF models show an area of snow showers moving across the north with the frontal boundary. The question will be if these snow showers will be able to overcome the dry boundary layer tonight. Upper air model soundings show a very moist column above the boundary layer, however, with dew points dropping below zero, there is a chance that snow will not reach the ground.

By Thursday, the front will sink towards the waters and snow showers will end before sunrise. The 925mb model temps show a slightly warmer layer hanging around the south, which will keep temps in the 20s for the day. However, the north will only make it into the teens for the day.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Light mixed precipitation Friday night into Saturday, potentially creating slick travel conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Flow turns southerly Friday afternoon as a low passes well to the south, bringing warmer air into the area. This starts to erode cooler air in place, as a warm front brings increased moisture out well ahead of an approaching cold front. Precipitation moves into the area Friday night, mainly in the north. There is still uncertainty in the forecast as far as precip type and if there is enough moisture aloft to support precip. Precip would be limited to the northern part of the forecast area. Precip could start as light snow and transition to a wintry mix and eventually to rain as temperatures rise as a result of the southerly flow throughout the morning. There is a chance for freezing rain and/or sleet, but any wintry or frozen precip that does fall should melt quickly throughout the day on Saturday as temperatures rise into the mid to upper 40s. Precipitation will be generally light, with total liquid accumulations of around 0.05 inches through Southern Aroostook and the Central Highlands and up to about 0.15 inches northward.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Above normal temperatures dominate through next week, and could lead to snow melt and river/lake ice rot.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... After a surge of warm air starting Saturday, a weak cold front passes the area Sunday morning bringing rain and chances of snow mixing in in the north. Temps rebound throughout the day on Sunday getting up to low 40s north and upper 40s to the south as a ridge pushes into the area. Southerly flow continues Monday and Tuesday keeping the warming trend going, getting into the mid to upper 50s. Nightly temperatures will generally only get down to near freezing from Saturday night through at least Wednesday, though some areas in the north could see upper 20s over this period. Warm daytime temperatures could lead to snow melt and ice rot with only near freezing lows limiting refreezing.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

FVE/CAR/PQI...VFR this afternoon, then MVFR/VFR cigs this evening and tonight in snow showers. Conditions will improve to VFR early Thursday morning and remain VFR for the rest of the day into Thursday night.

HUL/BGR/BHB...VFR conditions for tonight, Thursday, and Thursday night.

Light and variable winds tonight. NNE winds 5-10 kts Thursday. Light and variable winds Thursday night.

Fri...VFR/MVFR. Light E winds become SE at 5 to 10 kts.

Fri night - Sat...MVFR/IFR. Wintry mix possible overnight through early Saturday morning, becoming rain through the day on Saturday. SSE winds 5 to 10 kts overnight becoming S at 10 to 15 kts gusting to 25 kts on Saturday.

Sat night - Sun...VFR across all terminals. Winds shift W winds 5 to 10 kts.

Mon...VFR across all terminals. SW winds 10 to 15 kts.

MARINE

A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for Thursday through Thursday night for gusty winds and seas 4-6 ft.

Small craft advisory criteria will likely be met Thursday night through the day on Friday with WNW winds gusting 25 to 30 kts, especially over the coastal waters. Warming temperatures through this time will limit the threat for freezing spray. Snow could move in over the waters on Friday, likely switching to rain Friday night into Saturday and potentially limiting visibility over this time. Gale conditions are possible late Saturday into Saturday night behind a cold front. Temperatures will remain mild enough through the weekend for no freezing spray threat at that time.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ050-051.