textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 540 AM Update to the aviation section with the 12z TAFS

- Issued SCA for coastal and intracoastals and Gale Watch on outer waters for Monday night into Tuesday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Strong westerly winds on Tuesday could lead to some isolated power outages.

2) Another round of rain showers throughout the forecast area on Monday, with light rainfall totals and little improvement to ongoing drought conditions.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong westerly winds on Tuesday could lead to some isolated power outages.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Increasing confidence on Tuesday that, as the low pressure system deepens in the Northern Maritimes, we can expect strong surface high pressure to dive over the eastern Great Lakes. This will lead to a strong pressure gradient between the low and high, resulting in gusty west winds developing during the afternoon and evening hours on Monday. Tuesday probabilities for 35+ mph wind gusts have stayed consistent to 70-90%, with 40+ mph probabilities still 40-70% for Millinocket and areas north. For the Bangor region and interior Downeast, 35+ mph wind gusts probabilities are 20-40%. 40+ mph probabilities have decreased to less than 10%. As of this update ensemble guidance indicates in decreasing trend in wind gusts, due to this trend confidence is low in wind advisories. Uncertainty remains in wind speeds due to cloud cover throughout the day on Tuesday. However, it is likely that significant leaf loss may be possible in areas of Northern Maine where peak foliage has been reached. Additional leaf loss is possible in the Central Highlands to Downeast Maine where the foliage is moderate to high. Gusty winds could also lead to some isolated power outages. Continue to monitor the forecast for updates, as models get a better handle on the atmospheric set up.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another round of rain showers throughout the forecast area on Monday, with light rainfall totals and little improvement to ongoing drought conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... An occluding low pressure system will track across northern Quebec Monday through Tuesday. At the same time, a coastal low will track up the Atlantic coast before tracking up the eastern coast of Nova Scotia. There is increasing confidence that the timing between these two systems will align such that they interact with each other over our forecast area on Monday. The coastal low will be the system that provides the moisture for rainfall, with PWATs 1.0-1.2 inches. Meanwhile, the northern low will be comparatively dry with PWATs closer to 0.6-0.8 inches, yet the northern low will provide the most dynamic support. Overall, due to the lack of moisture support by the northern system, total rainfall amounts will be relatively light, with around a tenth to a quarter of an inch of total rainfall, and having little benefit to the ongoing drought in the area.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Today...VFR across all terminals. SE winds 5 to 10 kts with a few gusts to 15 kts.

Tonight...Cigs deteriorating towards IFR at all terminals as rain moves into the area. Winds light and variable at KBGR and Downeast terminals, SE 5 to 10 kts at northern terminals from KGNR/KMLT/KHUL north. LLWS possible early at northern terminals.

Monday...MVFR/IFR early, improving to VFR behind a frontal passage, though lingering MVFR possible for Aroostook terminals through the afternoon. SW winds 5 to 10 kts shifting W during the afternoon behind the frontal passage at 10 to 15 kts with gusts 20 to 30 kts.

Monday night-Tuesday...VFR/MVFR north in any lingering low clouds. VFR Downeast. Westerly winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to around 30 knots Monday night. Tuesday, west winds 20 to 30 knots at northern terminals with gusts up to 35-40 knots. West winds 15 to 20 knots at southern terminals with gusts 20-30 knots.

Tuesday night-Wednesday...VFR conditions. W/NW winds 10-15 knots, gusting to 20-25 knots at all terminals. Winds relax to 5-10 knots out of the south area wide for Wednesday and gusts at 15-20 knots.

Wednesday night-Thursday...VFR conditions. S winds 5-10 knots, gusting 15-20 knots at all terminals. Thursday winds WSW at 5-10 knots with gusts 15-20 knots.

Thursday night-Friday...MVFR north/VFR south. SW winds 5-10 knots. Gusts 10-15 knots for all terminals. Friday 5-10 knot winds with gusts up to 10-15 knot gusts.

T

MARINE

Winds light and variable and seas 2 to 3 ft today. Seas increasing to 3 to 5 ft overnight tonight into Monday on the coastal and outer waters with a SE swell.

Wind gusts increase above 25kts over the outer waters Monday afternoon and reach gale force in the evening remaining around these levels through Tuesday, with a Gale Watch in effect Monday night into Tuesday afternoon. Waves build to 5-8ft Monday evening on outer waters. Waves 3 to 6 feet over remaining waters through Tuesday with W winds 15-25 knots for coastal and intracoastal waters with gusts 25-30 knots. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for coastal and intracoastal waters Monday afternoon through Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday W-SW winds 5-15 knots, gusts 15-20 knots on coastal waters, outer waters winds at 10-15 knots, gusts 20-25 knots. Wave heights Wednesday 2-4 coastal, outer-waters 3-5 ft then going to 1-3 ft during the evening both waters.

Wednesday night-Thursday S/SW 10-15 knots inner coastal, 15-20 knots coastal and outer waters with gusts 15-20 inner and coastal waters, 20-25 outer waters. Thursday winds 10-15 knots inner coastal with coastal and outer 15-20 knot winds. Thursday wave heights 2-4 ft inner coastal, with 5-7 ft waves coastal and outer waters.

Thursday night-Friday W 5-10 knots inner coastal, 10-15 coastal and outer waters. With gusts 5-10 knots and 15-20 knots coastal and outer waters. 1-3 ft waves and 5-7 ft waves coastal and outer waters. On Friday 5-10 knots inner coastal and 10-15 knots for coastal and outer waters. With gusts rising up to 15-20 knots through all the waters. With 1-3 ft wave heights for all waters.

Winds and waves remain below SCA criteria through the rest of the week.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050>052. Gale Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon for ANZ080-081.