textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 4pm Update: Added isolated showers to Aroostook for next couple hours based on observations. - Merged the two key messages into one.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm and dry from this weekend through Tuesday of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Warm and dry from this weekend through Tuesday of next week.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Northern stream shortwave ridging crosses the area Saturday, followed by west southwest flow aloft through Saturday evening. The result should be dry conditions across the region, with highs on Saturday around 10 degrees above normal. A northern stream shortwave crosses the area late Saturday night and Sunday morning, bringing a slight chance of showers across northern portions of Aroostook, Somerset, and Piscatiquis counties. Any rainfall should be light, with amounts less than a tenth of an inch expected. Sunday will not quite be as warm as Saturday with a passage of a surface cold front ahead of the northern stream shortwave. Highs on Sunday should be around 5-10 degrees above normal. Highs on Saturday and Sunday were calculated using a blend of ConsMOS, ConsRaw and NBM50. With dry air in the lower levels and mixing sufficient to tap that drier air anticipated, lowered the dewpoints Saturday and Sunday as well with a blend of mixing down the dewpoints from aloft and NBM10. Wind gusts on Sunday behind the cold front could get up to 25-30mph, with minimum relative humidities generally in the 30%s Sunday afternoon. Depending on fuel moistures there could be some fire weather concerns as a result.

Deep layered ridging builds in Sunday night through Tuesday. It should be dry at least through Monday evening. For late Monday night, where a surface to 850 mb warm front lifting through the region stalls out by Tuesday morning will determine if the Crown of Maine sees any showers late Monday night. Depending on how fast this front then turns around and pushes south as a cold front, along with how successful any shortwaves are in making it over the top of the ridge will determine if Tuesday stays dry or if there are rounds of showers across the region. Highs Monday and Tuesday were derived by lowering NBM temperatures a couple of degrees. Dewpoints were lowered on Monday as well. Even with afternoon relative humidities progged into the 20s on Monday, wind gusts should peak at 10-15 mph - with some areas having gusts stay under 10 mph, so any fire weather concerns would be less than on Sunday.

AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

This afternoon...All terminals will increase to VFR with breaks in the clouds. SSE winds around 5 kts.

Tonight...Mainly VFR for north terminals. MVFR/IFR for south terminals due to scattered rain showers. Patchy fog is possible. Light and variable winds

Friday... Mainly VFR for north terminals. MVFR/IFR for south terminals in the morning, then improving to VFR by the afternoon. NE winds 5-10 kts.

Friday night...VFR for all terminals. Light and variable winds.

Saturday-Saturday night...VFR, with the possible exception of a brief period of MVFR at far northern terminals with any showers late Saturday night. WSW winds G15KT possible Saturday afternoon.

Sunday-Monday...VFR, with the possible exception of a brief period of MVFR at northern terminals with any showers Sunday morning and early Sunday afternoon. NW winds G15-25KT possible Sunday afternoon.

Monday night: VFR with possible exception of a low chance of MVFR or lower late at far northern terminals.

Tuesday: MVFR or lower possible, with the best chance at northern terminals. LLWS possible at southern terminals.

MARINE

A Small Craft Advisory remains through Friday night. Tonight, winds are expected to reach 25 kts for the outer waters. In addition, seas will begin to increase. By Friday, seas will increase to 5-8 ft by early afternoon. Seas will decrease throughout Friday night, then reach below SCA criteria by Saturday morning.

Small craft conditions are possible on all coastal waters from Saturday afternoon through Sunday and possibly on the coastal ocean waters Sunday night. All coastal waters should then experience sub-SCA conditions Monday through Tuesday.

On the outer waters, gusts of 25-30 kt and seas up to 7 ft are likely Saturday through Sunday. Winds should then remain below 25 kt and seas at or below 5 ft from Sunday through Tuesday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ050-051.