textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Lowered dew points a few degrees on Sunday resulting in slightly lower relative humidities.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warmer, seasonable temperatures the rest of this weekend through early next week with no precipitation. The next chance for precipitation is towards the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warmer, seasonable temperatures the rest of this weekend through early next week with no precipitation. The next chance for precipitation is towards the end of next week.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

The overall 500mb Omega Block over the eastern CONUS is starting to fall apart heading into Sunday. Upper level low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes continues to push east slowly and a 500mb shortwave dives south along the Eastern Seaboard. This will begin to cutoff and stall off the Mid Atlantic coast as surface high pressure in Quebec builds south. Partly to mostly sunny on Sunday and a few degrees warmer. Highs top out in the upper 50s to low 60s with light and variable winds. Have lowered RHs for tomorrow into the 35-45 percent range for most locations given the modeled soundings consistent with a dry adiabatic boundary layer up to 900mb.

Seasonable temperatures and no precipitation through early next week as upper-level ridging and the surface high pressure builds into the area. Did increase cloud cover from the NBM Monday due to a closed low passing south of the coast which is likely to bring some moisture into the area beneath a subsidence inversion.

The next chance for precipitation is mid to late week as an upper-level trough develops over the upper midwest. Because of the differences in handling of the deep layered ridge, the models differ on the timing of rainfall, and the corresponding build in of a trough of low pressure aloft. Still, most models agree on a system bringing rainfall to the area in the Thursday to Friday timeframe. Unclear yet if precipitation reaches us Wednesday. There is also uncertainty regarding how much precipitation is possible but current ensemble guidance is hinting at a heavy rain event with numerous members showing 1-3".

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Rest of Today...SCT-BKN VFR. N winds 5-15kt gusting up to 20kt.

Tonight...SCT-BKN VFR. Light and variable winds.

Sunday...SCT-BKN VFR. Light and variable winds.

Monday: Low chance of MVFR with best chance at northern terminals. Light and variable winds north, E/SE winds around 5 kts south.

Monday night: MVFR possible, especially at northern terminals. Light E/SE winds.

Tuesday: VFR with a slight chance of MVFR at BHB. E/SE winds south and S/SE winds north 5 to 10 kts.

Tuesday night: VFR, possibly becoming MVFR late south. Light E/SE winds south, S/SE winds 5 to 10 kts north.

Wednesday: Likely MVFR at southern terminals and VFR/MVFR northern terminals. Slight chance rain late south. E/SE winds 5 to 10 kts.

Wednesday night: MVFR, possibly IFR late at southern terminals with chance rain. E/SE winds 5 to 10 kts.

Thursday: IFR in rain. E/SE winds 5 to 10 kts.

MARINE

Winds less than 20kt on the waters into tonight with seas 1-3ft. On Sunday generally less than 10kt winds and seas 1-2ft or less. Below SCA winds and seas Monday through Tuesday on the coastal and intracoastal waters. Seas increase to 6 to 8 ft on the coastal waters and 8 to 11 ft on the outer waters by Thursday. Winds increase to SCA criteria on the coastal waters late Wednesday and approach gales Thursday on the outer waters.

Sea surface water temperatures range from 38-42F from the Downeast coast out 60NM and east to the Hague Line including Penobscot and Passamaquoddy Bays.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.