textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 6AM: The Winter Weather Advisory is now expired. Light snow showers are still expected this afternoon across the area.

- Increased confidence in extremely cold weather this coming weekend

- Increased confidence in light snow showers across the forecast area this afternoon and evening

KEY MESSAGES

1) Snow Downeast this morning could lead to slick conditions for the morning commute, followed by another round of light snow across the forecast area into this evening.

2) Very cold wind chills Tuesday into Tuesday night, and then even colder wind chills this weekend, likely to levels seen only once every few years.

3) Light snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Snow Downeast this morning could lead to slick conditions for the morning commute, followed by another round of light snow across the forecast area into this evening.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Snow continues across Washington and Hancock counties this morning, with another 2 to 3 inches of snowfall possible before the low pressure exits further east and snow ends for the area. With this early morning snowfall, conditions could be slick for the morning commute.

There is increased confidence in the development of a weak coastal low this afternoon, and this shortwave will track from the Gulf of Maine up into New Brunswick through this evening. This disturbance will support the development of snow showers throughout our forecast area, though snowfall will likely be light with up to an inch of additional snow expected at most.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Very cold wind chills Tuesday into Tuesday night, and then even colder wind chills this weekend, likely to levels seen only once every few years.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Colder air moves in from the west Tuesday and Tuesday night. West winds gusting to 30 mph during the day Tuesday combined with near steady temperatures 10-15 in the north and around 20 Downeast will lead to wind chills zero to 10 below in the north and 0 to 10 above Downeast. Winds ease some Tuesday night, but temperatures continue to drop, with temperatures bottoming out zero to 10 below in the north and zero to 10 above Downeast. With the winds easing later Tuesday night, odds favor wind chills not quite getting to cold advisory criteria, but it will be close, and regardless it will feel quite cold, with wind chills bottoming out around 20 below in the north and 0 to 10 below Downeast. Expecting just isolated snow shower activity at best with the colder airmass moving in Tuesday and Tuesday night.

While the airmass will be cold Tuesday/Tuesday night, the airmass looks even colder this weekend. Friday night through Sunday night looks like coldest time period. There is high confidence in the very cold airmass, as model agreement is pretty good. We will also be in a setup where there will likely be a decent west/northwest breeze during this time, meaning wind chills will be absolutely brutal and likely to the coldest levels we have seen since early February 2023. These will likely be wind chills we typically see only once every few years. It does not look quite as brutal as early February 2023 though, unless things change. Friday night through Sunday night looks about equally cold, so this will be a somewhat long-lived brutal cold stretch. Wind chills will likely bottom out below 30 below in the north, while closer to the coast we should bottom out colder than 20 below. Wind chills will be flirting with extreme cold warning criteria.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Light snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... A weak system in west/southwest flow will bring a quick shot of light snow Wednesday night/Thursday morning. This will be a fairly minor event with just some hazardous travel conditions, with most likely snow totals being around 1-3 inches. The higher totals probably will be over Downeast. Some milder air moves in, and Downeast, especially along the coast, could mix with or change to rain Thursday morning at the tail end of the event. High temperatures Thursday will reach the mid to upper 20s north and mid to upper 30s south. This will easily be the warmest day of the next week, as temperatures plummet after Thursday (see key message 2).

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Today - Tonight... Northern terminals: Mainly VFR conditions will continue through today before gradually decreasing towards MVFR this evening with light snow showers. Winds light and variable becoming SW 5 to 10 kts tonight. 40 kt LLWS possible late tonight.

Downeast/BGR terminals: VFR briefly this morning before cigs decrease and become MVFR once more this afternoon. Potential for vis to drop to MVFR/IFR this afternoon in snow showers, but confidence in low vis in SHSN was too low to include in the TAF at this time. Winds light and variable becoming SW 5 to 10 kts tonight. 40 kt LLWS possible late tonight.

Tuesday: VFR Downeast, chance MVFR cigs at northern terminals. W winds 10 to 15 kts gusting 20 to 30 kts.

Tuesday night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Southwest/west winds 5-10 kts.

Wednesday night and Thursday...VFR early Wednesday night. MVFR/IFR late Wednesday night into Thursday morning with possible snow. South winds 5-10 kts.

Thursday night and Friday...Mainly VFR south and MVFR/VFR north. West winds 5-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts Friday.

MARINE

A brief lull in conditions expected today, though snow showers this afternoon could reduce visibility. Temperatures will drop while winds increase again to gale force tonight, which will lead to light freezing spray through the day on Tuesday. Gales likely to continue through the day on Tuesday while seas increase to 6 to 11 ft. The intracoastal waters may see gusts approach gale force and could briefly reach 35 kts, but otherwise conditions are likely to be strong SCA level Tuesday.

Gale force westerly winds are likely to continue into Tuesday evening, then ease late. The next likely gales come as a west/southwest wind Wednesday night and Thursday, and could even persist all the way through Friday. Light to possibly moderate freezing spray Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, then another round of light to moderate freezing spray Friday, probably even becoming moderate to heavy Friday night into the weekend. Seas up to around 7 feet Tuesday evening, then easing, then building to 5 to 8 feet Thursday into Friday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ052.