textproduct: Caribou

SYNOPSIS

A weak trof will cross the area tonight. High pressure will build in on Monday and move south of the region Tuesday. A warm front will approach Tuesday night and stall early Wednesday. A cold front will approach Wednesday night and cross the area Thursday. High pressure begins to push into the area on Friday

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Key Messages -Low pressure over the water will bring light snow to Downeast coast tonight.

A weakening surface trof will move across the Great Lakes this evening and dig into New England tonight. High res models indicate the trof becoming a weak closed low over the Gulf of Maine. This will bring some light snow across coastal Downeast. As the low shifts to a NE track, more snow will fall across coastal Washington. By Monday morning, the system will exit over the seas and a surface ridge will move into the region. Cloudy skies and near normal temps for Monday and Monday night.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Main point:

* Storm on Wednesday to bring widespread rain, with light snowfall in the north early. Brief wintry mix possible before transition to all rain.

Discussion: The ridge of high pressure will continue to slide eastwards on Tuesday, with return flow into the forecast area that will lead to temperatures lifting into the 40s across the forecast area. Cloud cover will be increasing into Tuesday night ahead of the next system approaching the area.

A triple point low will move through the forecast area on Wednesday, bringing the next round of precipitation to the area. Most precip will fall in the form of rain, especially across the Downeast region. The northern edge of precipitation, which will fall somewhere across the north, may fall as snow early Wednesday morning. There could be some brief freezing rain or sleet along the transition zone between snow and rain, however locations and timing of this feature remain fairly uncertain, and any occurrence of a wintry mix will be fairly short lived. High temperatures on Wednesday may once again lift into the 40s Downeast, and upper 30s in the north, leading to a switch to all rain through the day on Wednesday and limiting the threat for any accumulating wintry precip.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Main points:

* Rain showers return on Thursday throughout the forecast area. * Gusty winds and convective snow showers possible Friday through Saturday.

Discussion: The occluded front will be next to cross the area, after a brief dry slot Wednesday night. This feature will be much quicker moving, and rain showers will quickly lift through the area. That said, mostly cloudy skies and scattered rain showers with some gusty winds to around 20 mph will accompany highs around 40 in the north and in the mid 40s Downeast for Thanksgiving day.

Behind the occluded low on Friday, west to northwest gusty winds will aid in supporting some convective snow showers, particularly across the north where moisture is advected in off the St. Lawrence River. Moderate low level lapse rates around 7 C/km and non-zero CAPE as seen on forecast GFS sounding profiles suggest that there could be some stronger snow showers which contain gustier winds and brief moderate to heavy snowfall. These conditions may reduce visibility and impact travel on Friday into Friday night. However, there remains uncertainty at this point in resolving this mesoscale feature.

High pressure will build back into the area for the weekend, with decreasing winds and a drier pattern later Saturday into Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

NEAR TERM: VFR conditions for all terminals tonight, Monday, and Monday night. Light and variable winds tonight. Monday NW winds 5-10 kts. Monday night, light WSW winds.

SHORT TERM: Tuesday...VFR. Winds SW 5 to 10kts.

Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR south with rain approaching late. Lowering to MVFR/IFR north late as snow approaches. Winds S around 5 kts becoming E 5 kts late.

Wednesday - Wednesday night...IFR/LIFR across all terminals in rain. Winds light and variable becoming S 5 to 10 kts overnight.

Thursday...MVFR improving to VFR from south to north in the afternoon. Winds SW at 10 to 15 kts gusting 20 to 25 kts.

Thursday night - Friday...Mostly VFR across all terminals, though brief MVFR/IFR possible in scattered snow showers, particularly across northern terminals. Winds SW 5 to 10 kts gusting to 20 kts overnight, increasing to 10 to 15 kts with gusts 20 to 30 kts on Friday.

MARINE

NEAR TERM: Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions tonight, Monday, Monday night.

SHORT TERM: Wind gusts will remain below small craft advisory criteria Wednesday into Wednesday night, but begin to increase to 25 to 30 kts across all waters on Thursday with a rain storm moving through the area. Behind the low on Thursday, W to SW winds may increase further to full gales lasting through the end of the week. Seas 4 to 5 ft Wednesday will begin to increase on Thursday, approaching 6 to 9 ft with the gales late in the week.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.