textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Issued Small Craft Advisory for the intracoastal and coastal marine zones beginning Monday afternoon for increased winds and seas

- Increasing confidence in areas of dense fog Downeast tonight

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dense fog tonight Downeast, followed by widespread rain showers and chance for thunderstorms throughout the forecast area on Monday.

2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms late this week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dense fog tonight Downeast, followed by widespread rain showers and chance for thunderstorms throughout the forecast area on Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Fog: Elevated low level moisture continues to linger throughout the forecast area this evening, particularly throughout the Downeast region. Patchy fog that currently remains just off- shore late this afternoon may return northwards this evening with the sea breeze and increasing southerly flow, pushing inland and leading to areas of dense fog through the night Downeast tonight. Another Dense Fog Advisory is possible, though the areal extent remains uncertain enough at this time that confidence is too low to issue an advisory at this moment. It is unlikely the areas of dense fog will push all the way north through the state, but trends will be closely monitored as humidity levels increase.

Rain and storms: A cold front will cross the area Monday, increasing the pressure gradient and leading to gusty winds and moderate rainfall. Total rainfall amounts could exceed an inch in areas where moderate rain continues to train over the same area through Monday afternoon. Instability will be limited and forecast profiles indicate CAPE will be mostly elevated, but the chance for thunderstorms remains due to the dynamic forcing derived from the synoptic cold front. Rain should move out of the area through Monday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered showers and thunderstorms late this week.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... High pressure over the area mid week weakens Thursday as upper level shortwave energy moves in from the west. Models are currently showing the potential for some weak low pressure development in the area which may kick off some showers and storms. Long range ensemble guidance shows the potential for at least a few hundred J/kg of instability but is relatively uncertain in when/where the best forcing for ascent will be so will need to wait to get better clarity on storm location, strength, and coverage.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Tonight - Monday night...VFR conditions this evening will decrease to IFR/LIFR across all terminals. Low chance for lightning early this evening around KFVE and KCAR. In the north, cigs will be the primary low category, while Downeast terminals are likely to see fog that will limit vis. Conditions will be slow to improve if any improvement occurs at all through the day on Monday as rain moves into the area and keeps cigs low, though could clear out fog. Winds will increase around these showers, with S to SE winds 5 to 10 kts from tonight increasing to 10 to 15 kts by Monday afternoon with gusts 20 to 25 kts. Conditions may gradually begin to improve through Monday night as cigs lift. Winds will shift W Monday night but will likely remain around 10 to 15 kts with continued gusts to around 20 kts. LLWS may begin at KBHB and coastal terminals overnight Monday night.

Tuesday...VFR. Patchy fog may last into early morning and could result in IFR/LIFR conditions. W winds 10-15 kts, with gusts to 25 kts. Winds decrease throughout the day.

Tuesday night - Wednesday...VFR, except for MVFR or lower possible in patchy overnight fog. Light W winds Tuesday night, shifting to SW 5-10 kts Wednesday.

Wednesday night...VFR. Light S-SW winds.

Thursday - Friday...MVFR/IFR possible in scattered rain showers and isolated T-storms. SSW winds 5-10 kts.

MARINE

Winds will increase with the approach of a cold front tonight into Monday, with gusts over the outer waters reaching around 30 kts, and the coastal and intracoastal waters seeing gusts lifting to around 25 to 30 kts by Monday afternoon. Seas will respond by lifting to around 5 to 8 ft Monday evening into early Tuesday morning. A small craft advisory is in place for these conditions.

Below SCA conditions Tuesday night through Thursday with light SW winds.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ052.