textproduct: Caribou

SYNOPSIS

Low pressure will remain over Labrador through Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure will be over the area Thursday. An occluded front will approach on Friday and continue to our east Friday night. High pressure will build to our southwest on Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

We will continue to be in the circulation of low pressure tracking from the Gulf of St. Lawrence north into Labrador tonight. A tight gradient south of this low will result in continued gusty westerly winds overnight. Some snow showers will be possible over the far north and west tonight. Otherwise, tonight will be mostly cloudy north to mostly clear Downeast.

Strong low pressure will remain stalled over Labrador on Tuesday as we remain in a tight gradient across our region. Moisture continuing to circulate over the area will bring a mostly cloudy sky north and a mostly sunny sky south. A few snow showers will still be possible over the far north early. The afternoon should be dry.

Low pressure will weaken well to our north Tuesday night allowing winds to gradually diminish. The north will remain partly to mostly cloudy in some lingering moisture while Downeast is mostly clear.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Key Messages: *High pressure Wednesday Night into Thursday *Below normal temperatures expected

Upper trof will pass thru the area on Wednesday bringing mocldy skies to the north. Cannot rule out an isolated snow shower over the area but dry airmass likely to preclude much in the way of precip. West winds may be gusty along the higher terrain.

Sfc high will begin to build in Wednesday night with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. With light winds and clearing skies temps should be able to drop into the upr teens over the north and into the lwr 20s Downeast.

High pressure builds offshore Thursday morning with return flow kicking in during the afternoon. Shortwave digging thru the mid- Atlantic will eject off of the Delmarva and move south of our waters Wednesday night.

High temps on Thursday will continue below normal with mid 30s acrs the north and around 40 south. Upper level trof will approach from the west and bring an increase in clouds in the afternoon but little in the way of precip.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Key Messages... *Weakening system brings rain/snow mix north Friday/Friday night *Gusty winds possible Saturday

H5 system will be moving thru nrn Ontario into nrn Quebec Friday into Friday night. Upr ridging will build briefly over the area Thursday night into Friday morning before flow begins to flatten. Precipitation will move in ahead of occluding system by afternoon.

Precipitation should be all rain for southern areas with snow and/or mix of rain and snow over the north Friday afternoon and Friday evening. System will be a fast-mover with precip exiting into NB Saturday morning.

Sfc high looks to be building in from the Great Lakes as ow is still deepening over the Canadian Maritimes, leading to gusty winds once again on Saturday afternoon.

Temperatures will moderate to near normal at the start of the period before dropping into the weekend in wake of departing low.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

NEAR TERM: MVFR conditions are expected across the north tonight, gradually improving to VFR but likely remaining MVFR over the far north. VFR conditions are expected over the south. Some westerly wind shear late tonight. W wind 10 to 15 kt gusting to 25 kt.

VFR conditions are expected Tuesday, possibly briefly lowering to MVFR at times over the far north. W wind 10 to 15 gusting to 25.

VFR conditions Tuesday night. Winds 5 to 10 gusting to 15, diminishing overnight.

SHORT TERM: Wednesday through Thursday night...VFR. W 5-10kts becoming S 5ks Thursday morning.

Friday through Friday night...VFR early, dropping to MVFR/IFR and occasional LIFR Friday. Rain/snow mix over Aroostook terminals with rain Downeast terminals. S 5-10kts, becoming W late.

Saturday...MVFR/IFR early, improving throughout the day. W 5-15kts with gusts 20-25kts in the afternoon.

MARINE

NEAR TERM: A gale warning for the offshore waters and SCA for the intracoastal waters will continue into Tuesday morning. Seas will average 6 to 8 ft overnight. Winds will diminish to SCA on Tuesday and drop below SCA Tuesday night. Seas subsiding to 4 to 6 ft late Tuesday then 3 to 4 ft Tuesday night.

SHORT TERM: Seas and winds will remain below small craft levels through Friday. Conditions increase aoa SCA Friday night, before diminishing very late on Saturday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for MEZ001>006-010. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ052.