textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Raised precipitation chances Monday morning

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers taper off early this evening Downeast, but persist into Monday over Northern Maine. No flooding expected.

2) Potential for coastal storm development in the later part of next week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers taper off early this evening Downeast, but persist into Monday over Northern Maine. No flooding expected.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... As of early afternoon Sunday, the center of the low pressure is over far SW New Brunswick, with intermittent light to occasionally moderate rain showers across the area on the west side of the low. Rain totals from this prolonged storm have been generous, with 0.75 to 1.5 inches in the north, and 1.25 to 2.5 inches Bangor and Downeast, with even some localized spots over coastal Hancock around 3 inches.

As the low pressure continues to push off to our east/northeast, the trend this evening is for rain showers ending Downeast and Bangor, but with scattered to numerous light showers persisting over Northern Maine. These showers will likely even continue through the day Monday over Northern Maine (mainly north of Houlton) until the center of the departing system gets far enough away for drying Monday night. Additional precipitation should be less than 0.25 inches for most areas, though some places in the north could approach another 0.25 inches through late Monday. Though surface temperatures have been lingering in the upper 30s to low 40s, it has been all rain thanks to temperatures aloft not being any cooler than at the surface. However, some cooler air aloft finally moves in late this afternoon and early this evening, and any time from this evening to mid-morning Monday, areas mainly to the north of Caribou, in the North Woods, and around Greenville could see a few snowflakes mixing in from time to time. However, think that surface temperatures will be staying a hair above freezing tonight and any minor snow accumulations will be limited to higher elevations above where most people live, and road conditions should not be impacted.

Key Message 2... Potential for coastal storm development in the later part of next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Increasing confidence in a coastal low developing towards the end of next week with still a lot of uncertainty regarding this system. There is a large uncertainty with the models showing a northern or southerly extent for the track of the system. There is potential for snow but high uncertainty on location and amounts. Potential for gusty winds near the coast depending on the track of the system. Continue to monitor for updates regarding this system.

AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Rest of Today (Sunday)...Low MVFR or IFR areawide with low clouds and rain showers. Not much change through the rest of the afternoon. NW winds 10-15 kts.

Tonight...Improvement for BHB/BGR to VFR around 0z plus or minor two hours is likely, with BHB/BGR likely to stay VFR through the night. However, Aroostook terminals (FVE/CAR/PQI/HUL) should be either IFR or low MVFR, with the highest likelihood of IFR being at FVE and the other sites probably favoring low MVFR. Intermittent light rain showers, though showers could mix with snow at FVE and CAR, with no accumulation expected. W wind 5-10 kts.

Monday...Mainly MVFR north, and VFR or high MVFR south (BGR/BHB). W wind 5-10 kts.

Monday night-Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR over nrn terminals Monday evening and Tuesday afternoon in showers. WSW winds 5-10 kts, gusts up to 20 kts.

Tuesday night-Wednesday...Mainly VFR with showers, northern terminals. Light W winds becoming WNW 5-15 kts.

Wednesday night-Thursday...VFR. WNW winds 5-10 kts, gusting up to 20 kts.

Thursday night-Friday...VFR. Changing over to MVFR from south to north Friday with showers. NNE winds 5-15 kts. Gusts up to 25 kts at southern terminals.

MARINE

Brief period of gales possible over outer waters this afternoon, but not enough confidence for a gale warning. Otherwise, winds and seas decrease tonight into Monday. However, Monday night NW winds should increase back to 20-25 kts.

Seas diminish Tuesday through Thursday. NW winds diminish Tuesday/Tuesday night before approaching 25kts outer waters Wednesday morning with marginal conditions once again over the coastal waters. Potential for increased wave heights and wind gusts on Friday due to the potential of a coastal storm developing later next week.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for ANZ050- 051. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ052.