textproduct: Caribou

SYNOPSIS

Low pressure crosses the area tonight through Monday, then moves north of the region Tuesday. Upper level disturbances will cross the region Wednesday into Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

740 am update... Low pressure currently located over northern New Jersey with inverted trof extending up into northern New England. Overrunning pcpn has made it into nrn Maine as of 00z and continues to move into nrn Aroostook. Expect snow should begin over the St. John Valley within the next 1-2 hours. Light snow amounting to a dusting occurred in the Central Highlands from latest webcams. Further east, very little fell with the Bangor Region having reported just rain mixed with some sleet and briefly with snow this afternoon. Cold air damming can be seen in the typical places with BGR at 37 degrees and Greenville stuck around 30 degrees.

00z raob out of KCAR shows the warm nose around 800mb up near negative 1C and with winds around this level out of the southwest and not expected to back from the south for another few hours, expect that snow should continue over nrn areas thru midnight. Pcpn should then lighten around midnight before LLJ and next wave moves in from the south, giving added lift to pcpn. This likely to keep pcpn falling as snow over nrn Aroostook before weakening around daybreak, mixing with rain around 4am. Warm nose likely to remain below 0C over the North Woods until closer to sunrise, holding onto a snow/fzra mix before falling as all rain after daybreak.

Total snowfall amounts still expected to be around 0.5-1 inch over nrn Aroostook with a dusting expected to the south. Still expecting slick conditions over the north by morning with ice accums ranging from a glaze to 0.10 inches.

Prev discussion blo... Ridging moves east of the region today, as a deepening low pressure system to the southwest moves into New England this evening. Associated warm front brings some warm air advection in from the south to the north by daybreak. Wind speeds begin to pick up this evening, with some gusts up to 20 mph possible overnight into tomorrow. Moisture advects in, with rain and snow showers beginning Downeast this evening, gradually moving north through the night. Relatively tight rain/snow line going through central Maine. Northwards of I-95 will see snow, rain and snow mix in the Bangor/Upper Penobscot Valley, and rain along the coast. Current afternoon temperatures are teetering in the mid-30s, so mixed precipitation has been reported so far in the Bangor region.

Tonight, warm air advects into Downeast Maine, raising temperatures into the low-40s, keeping precipitation as rain. Rain/snow line rises up to the Central Highlands into portions of southern Aroostook. North Woods and Central Aroostook forecast to get snowfall. Snow total accumulations around an inch or two in the North Woods, and potentially arnd half an inch in eastern Aroostook. Based on soundings, there is a periods after midnight, where freezing rain in Aroostook county and the North Woods is expected. Ice accumulations expected to be less than a tenth of an inch, with the heaviest accumulations in the North Woods. Winter Weather Advisory in effect later tonight, so prepare for poor driving conditions during this period, especially for late night / early morning commuters. Exercise caution when driving in freezing rain, especially on bridges and overpasses. Freezing rain will quickly transition over to rain by daybreak, with snow and ice accumulations expected to melt off as temperatures rise. Overnight lows in the upper-20s in the north, low-30s in the Central Highlands region, and upper-30s to low-40s Downeast. There is a surface trough to set up in central Maine, which could result in some cold air damming in the Central Highlands overnight into tomorrow. With southerly flow along the coastline, there is a potential for some low-stratus and/or fog along the coast tonight, which would reduce visibility.

Tomorrow, low pressure approaches Maine from the southwest, and rain showers persist throughout the day. As cold front approaches, there is minimal elevated instability that could lead to a rumble of thunder Downeast or over the waters, but very marginal. That being said, MUCAPE around 200-400 J/kg, and there is decent low-level shear and helicity, so will not rule it out. Daytime highs in the low-40s in the north, low-50s in eastern and central Maine, and upper-50s Downeast.

Tomorrow night, low pressure finally swings through Maine from southwest. Increased cloud cover, and rain transitions over to snow ion the North Woods, as temperatures drop. Overnight lows in the upper-20s and low-30s in the North Woods, mid-30s in Eastern Maine, and low-40s Downeast.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Low pressure centered north of Maine will lift toward western Labrador Tuesday, while an upper trof crosses the forecast area. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of rain/snow showers across northern areas Tuesday, with partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of rain showers Downeast. The upper trof exits across the Maritimes Tuesday night, with high pressure building toward the region late. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of rain/snow showers across northern areas early Tuesday night, with partly/mostly cloudy skies late. Across Downeast areas, could have a slight chance of rain/snow showers early with otherwise partly cloudy skies. High pressure briefly crosses the region early Wednesday. Another upper level disturbance and occluded front then approach later Wednesday. Clouds increase Wednesday. Will also have a chance of afternoon rain/snow showers north, with a chance of afternoon rain showers Downeast. Upper level troffing will develop Wednesday night, while the initial upper disturbance exits. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of snow showers across northern areas Wednesday night. A slight chance of snow showers are possible across Downeast areas early Wednesday night, with otherwise partly/mostly cloudy skies. Expect near normal, to slightly below normal, level temperatures Tuesday. Slightly below normal level temperatures are expected Wednesday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Upper level troffing will remain across the region Thursday/Friday while a series of difficult to time disturbances move through the trof. Will have a chance of rain/snow showers across northern areas Thursday, with a chance of snow showers Thursday night. Across Downeast areas, expect a chance of rain showers Thursday with a slight chance of rain/snow showers early Thursday night. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of rain/snow showers across northern areas Friday, with generally partly cloudy skies Downeast. The upper trof should begin to exit across the Maritimes Saturday, though how rapidly this occurs is still uncertain. High pressure should then begin to build toward the region late. Generally expect partly/mostly cloudy skies north, partly cloudy Downeast, Saturday. However, if the upper trof is slower to exit could also still have a slight chance of rain/snow showers across the north and mountains. High pressure should cross the region Sunday, with a warm front possibly starting to approach late. Generally expect partly/mostly cloudy skies Sunday. Dependent on the timing of the warm front, could also have a slight chance of afternoon rain/snow showers north, slight chance of afternoon rain showers Downeast. Expect slightly below normal level temperatures Thursday through Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

NEAR TERM: KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: VFR will diminish to MVFR over the next hour or two as light snow moves in. HUL likely to see pcpn transition to rain by 04z with nrn sites transitioning between 07-09z. FVE looks to be fully into rain by 12z. IFR vsbys expected in snow overnight with cigs diminishing to LIFR in the afternoon

KBGR/KBHB: MVFR will diminish further to IFR cigs by 06z. Terminals will see rain next 24 hours, varying in intensity. LIFR cigs move in after 13z Monday.

All terminals will see LLWS out of the southeast between 35-45 kts overnight with Aroostook terminals keeping LLWS into the afternoon.

SHORT TERM:

Tuesday...Occasional IFR possible early. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR. A chance of rain/snow showers north, with a chance of rain showers Downeast. West/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Tuesday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers north. VFR Downeast with a slight chance of rain/snow showers early. West winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of rain/snow showers north. A chance of rain showers Downeast. South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots.

Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR with a chance of snow showers north. VFR/MVFR Downeast with a slight chance of early rain/snow showers. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of rain/snow showers north. A slight chance of rain showers Downeast. West/northwest winds around 10 knots.

Thursday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers north. VFR Downeast with a slight chance of rain/snow showers early. North/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of snow/rain showers north. VFR Downeast. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

MARINE

NEAR TERM: Waters are below Small Craft Conditions this evening, before wind gusts begin to ramp up late tonight into high-end Small Craft Advisory conditions. Winds from the E, shifting to the SE, with a few Gale level gusts up to 35 kts possible tonight. Seas 6-8 ft possible over all waters. Rain late tonight through tomorrow. Potential for some fog over the waters early tomorrow morning. Potential for some isolated rumbles of thunder over the waters tomorrow afternoon.

SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory conditions early Tuesday. A Gale Watch has been issued for Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday. Small craft advisory conditions later Wednesday into Wednesday night. A chance of rain showers Tuesday into Wednesday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for MEZ001>006- 010. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ050>052. Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning for ANZ050>052.