textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Increased cloud cover across northern areas this morning.

- Updated aviation discussion.

- A significant warmup with well above normal temperatures expected early next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Low relative humidities combining with gusty winds today and Sunday afternoons may lead to increased fire weather concerns from Southern Aroostook County southward where there is no snowpack.

2) Significant warmup likely early next week with temperatures potentially reaching into the 60s.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Low relative humidities combining with gusty winds today and Sunday afternoons may lead to increased fire weather concerns from Southern Aroostook County southward where there is no snowpack.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Afternoon relative humidity values today will generally range from 30 to 35 percent across the region inland from the Downeast coast. Higher humidity values will occur along the Downeast coast with onshore winds. Southerly wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph are expected today with the strongest winds during the afternoon.

High pressure will build in from the west over the weekend bringing another surge of dry air across the region. The high is expected to pass to our south on Sunday as the airmass warms a bit. Temperatures should climb into the upper 40s over the north and lower 50s Downeast. How low dewpoints reach Sunday is still uncertain at this time depending on how quickly high pressure moves in. A slower low is likely to result in more northwest flow that can more easily bring in dry air from over Canada while a faster high will result in more W/SW flow which, especially Downeast, will not be as dry due to it coming from over the ocean. Currently expecting RH values to be in the low to mid 30s across the north, in the upper 20s to low 30s across the Bangor region and upper Penobscot Valley, and in the 40s and 50s over coastal Downeast. Winds, however, will be relatively weak Sunday with gusts likely not exceeding 15 to 20 mph.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Significant warmup likely early next week with temperatures potentially reaching into the 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A warm front is expected to pass through the area early Monday potentially bringing a brief period of mixed precipitation to the north before turning to all rain across the region as southerly flow brings warm, moist air northward. Temperatures Monday are expected to reach the 50s areawide with near 60 possible in the Bangor region which is 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Temperatures will be the warmest Tuesday and are expected to be 15 to 20 degrees above normal, possibly getting close to 70 in the Bangor region.

AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Today...VFR. South winds around 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots.

Tonight...Generally VFR. However, local MVFR/IFR possible late Downeast. South winds 10 to 15 knots. Southwesterly low level wind shear.

Friday...Across northern areas, VFR early. MVFR/IFR during the afternoon with a chance of rain. South/southwest winds around 10 knots, becoming northwest. Across Downeast areas, local MVFR/IFR possible early. Otherwise, generally VFR with a slight chance of rain late. South winds 10 to 15 knots.

Friday night...IFR over the north becoming MVFR late. MVFR dropping to IFR across the south. Rain/snow north and rain south. NW wind around 5 kt over the north and S around 5 kt becoming NW across the south.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR over the north with rain/snow showers, becoming VFR late. VFR across the south. NW wind around 10 to 15 kt.

Saturday night...VFR. NW wind around 5 kt.

Sunday...VFR. W wind 5 to 10 kt becoming SW late at southern terminals.

Sunday night...VFR dropping to MVFR then IFR in rain/snow north and rain south. S wind 5 to 10 kt.

Monday...IFR becoming MVFR over the south late in rain. S wind 10 to 15 kt.

MARINE

A few wind gusts could approach small craft advisory levels tonight. Otherwise, winds/seas generally expected to remain below small craft advisory levels today through Friday.

Low end SCA conditions over the coastal waters Friday night and early Saturday night. Gales likely on all waters Monday with seas up to 10 ft on the coastal waters.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.