textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Moved up the start time of the Small Craft Advisory to 2 PM.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Several rounds of rain this week expected to lead to improved drought conditions.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Several rounds of rain this week expected to lead to improved drought conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... An intensifying ocean low will track south of the Gulf of Maine and east of Nova Scotia today with a trof extending back across eastern portions of the forecast area supporting an area of rain. Rain will occur today across mostly Downeast and eastern portions of the forecast area. The greater rain totals should occur along the Downeast coast and into Washington county where amounts up to around an inch are possible. Rain totals will diminish northward across the remainder of the eastern portion of the forecast area. The least rain with this event is expected across northwest portions of the forecast area. Rain will taper to showers before ending tonight. A weak disturbance could bring a slight chance/chance of showers Monday.

The next round of rain arrives late Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the west. Some weak convection early on during the day could boost rainfall totals locally. The cold front passes through the region on Wednesday which should produce widespread soaking rainfall. Ensemble solutions show low pressure developing along the front Wednesday night which will likely boost precipitation totals higher but uncertainty still remains as to how strong this low impulse will be. Overall, chance for at least an inch of rainfall Tuesday through Thursday is about 50% areawide. Long range guidance also suggests an additional low pressure system late week but too early to be definitive on amounts or impacts.

The cumulative effect of the precipitation through the end of this week should be continued improvement of drought conditions across the state, particularly aiding the groundwater deficit. Groundwater has generally improved with the recent rains, but several stations are still well below average. Soil moisture has also generally improved and should continue to do so given the rainfall and minimal evaporation.

AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Today...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, with rain. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north/northwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Tonight...VFR/MVFR early with rain tapering to showers. VFR late. Northwest/west winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Monday...Local MVFR with any showers. Otherwise, VFR. West/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Monday Night: VFR. S winds 5 to 10 kts. West/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Tuesday-Thursday...VFR across all terminals on Tuesday morning, turning to MVFR from west to east as rain showers enter the area during the afternoon. IFR/LIFR Wednesday with rain for all terminals. Improvement to MVFR by Thursday possible. Winds S Tuesday, gusting to 25 to 30 kts by Tuesday afternoon. Gusts relax to around 20 kts by Wednesday. Winds shift clockwise Wednesday night into Thursday becoming W and eventually N, gusting to around 10-15 kts.

MARINE

Moved up the start time of the Small Craft Advisory for the coastal waters to 2 PM. A Small Craft Advisory could be needed for the intra-coastal waters tonight into Monday. A few wind gusts could reach gale levels on the outermost waters, out to 60 NM, tonight. Rain and patchy fog today through early tonight.

Winds and seas above SCA criteria Monday night through Wednesday night. 50% chance of gales on the outer waters Tuesday and Wednesday with a 20% chance of isolated gale conditions on the coastal waters. Winds decrease below SCA criteria Thursday but seas may remain elevated. Seas peak at 9 to 13 ft on the coastal and outer waters Tuesday night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050-051.