textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Slightly lower rainfall amounts but still expecting up to localized 2 inches over the Central Highlands.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Significant rainfall is possible tomorrow into Friday, which should be beneficial for the ongoing groundwater drought.

2) Unsettled weather continues through the weekend with several rounds of wetting rain.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Significant rainfall is possible tomorrow into Friday, which should be beneficial for the ongoing groundwater drought.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Initial s/wv that brought rain to far sern zones this morning has shifted east into NB with an inverted trof lingering just offshore. This will likely lead to showers and drizzle increasing in coverage over Downeast this afternoon and evening. Throughout the evening hours this area will shift back to the west before merging with moisture bringing drawn up ahead of approaching front.

More substantial rain is expected on Thursday over the western 2/3rds of the region. Still some uncertainty as to how far east the rain progresses into the early afternoon hours and have dropped pops closer to slgt chc thru 18z. Entire CWA will be seeing rain Thursday evening, some of it heavy at times along with a chc for thunder along the coast. All told rain amounts have dropped slightly for tonight thru Thursday night with rainfall totals between 1/2-3/4 of an inch across the northeast and 1-1/5 inches over Downeast. Highest amounts look to be over the higher terrain of the Central Highlands, with isolated amounts of around 2 inches in a 36-hr period. River will likely rise but river ensembles still look to remain well below action stage.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather continues through the weekend with several rounds of wetting rain.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... With an upper level trough remaining overhead of the area, lingering instability will support continued rain shower chances through the weekend. A brief dry period is likely on Saturday, though some diurnally driven convection in the afternoon could result in a few light rain showers late in the day. More substantial rain is in store for Sunday, particularly across the Downeast region with a low pressure system passing south of the Gulf of Maine. Scattered rain showers may continue across the north during this time. Another break is possible on Monday ahead of the next low pressure system.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Tonight...FVE diminishes to MVFR this evening and IFR cigs after 05z. Remainder of Aroostook terminals currently MVFR with low clouds very slowly pushing northwest.

Thursday...IFR/LIFR through the day likely at BGR/BHB. Less confidence for northern TAFs from HUL N to FVE, where the day is likely to begin MVFR/IFR, but improvement to VFR is possible toward midday and into the afternoon. It is also possible these areas will remain MVFR. E/SE winds 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts.

Thursday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Rain and patchy fog. Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming variable 5 to 10 knots Thursday night.

Friday...MVFR/IFR in rain. W winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts.

Friday night...VFR/MVFR with occasional IFR in lingering rain. W winds around 5 kts.

Saturday - Saturday night...VFR. Slight chance for rain showers Saturday afternoon with MVFR cigs possible in any showers. SW winds 5 to 10 kts becoming light and variable.

Sunday - Sunday night...VFR/MVFR cigs with a chance for rain, particularly at BHB/BGR. NW winds 5 to 10 kts.

Monday...VFR across all terminals. SW winds 5 to 10 kts.

MARINE

Small Craft conditions over the waters tonight with gales over the waters out to 60nm. Gales will end Thursday evening with seas still above 8ft. SCA levels continue over the waters through Thursday night. Patchy fog likely to restrict visibilities over the waters tonight through Thursday night.

Gusts should remain below small craft advisory levels Friday through the weekend, while seas 4 to 6 ft gradually diminish to around 2 to 3 feet. Rain likely Saturday night into Sunday, which may limit visibilities.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Thursday to midnight EDT Thursday night for ANZ052. Gale Warning from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ080-081.