textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Started rain earlier on Monday. - Increased rain chances across the North Tuesday night and Wednesday. - Increased QPF across the north Tuesday-Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain chances return Monday and remain into early next week, but very low confidence on whether or not there will be notable drought relief.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Rain chances return Monday and remain into early next week, but very low confidence on whether or not there will be notable drought relief.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure over the Great Lakes moves east, bringing a frontal system that stalls over the northeast Monday into Monday night. Small shortwave on Monday results a chance for light showers in the north beginning Monday evening, continuing into Tuesday. The question will be how far south the warm front will push the rain showers to. As of this update, ensembles keep the majority of the rain north of the Bangor Region. Very minimal accumulation with these showers.

Tuesday-Wednesday a cutoff low slowly exits northeast into the Maritimes allowing for deep layered ridging to build into the region. At the surface, a back door cold front sinks southwest into southwestern Maine Tuesday and Tuesday night before lifting back northeast as a warm front Wednesday. Low level frontogenetic forcing to the north/east of this boundary will allow for a widespread stratiform rain mainly north of a Bangor- Machias line, with moderate rainfall possible for areas mainly along and north of a Greenville-Millinocket-Danforth line. From MOnday-Wednesday a quarter to a half of an inch of rain is possible along and north of a Mount Katahdin to Amity line, with lessor amounts further south, ranging down to at most a few hundreths of an inch across Mount Desert Island.

The region should see a lull in precipitation Wednesday night and Thursday morning with the region under the axis of the aforementioned deep layered ridge, before there is another chance of rainfall Thursday afternoon, depending on the timing of a slow moving system for late this week/early next week.

The models remain in disagreement on the timing and track of a cutoff low that tracks from the Great Lakes some time Wednesday-Thursday as it slowly lifts northeast, with another closed low developing to the west Friday/Friday night then lifting into the Maritimes in the Sunday-Monday timeframe. This second closed low could also potentially interact with another closed low off the southeastern then mid-Atlantic seaboard adding even more moisture and energy to the system.

There is the potential that this storm system could bring a prolonged period of moderate to heavy rainfall to the region from late this week into early next week. There is also the potential for at least coastal areas to see strong gusty winds with this system as well, with some signs that this could evolve into a southeaster at some point. However, the certainty in this happening is relatively low at this time - as one of the things models do the least well is handle the evolution of closed lows - and the forecast from late Thursday-Sunday is dependent on 2 to 3 of these features.

Given this uncertainty, it is to soon to specify what if any impacts could occur from these multiple closed lows late this week and early next week.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Tonight-Monday...Mainly VFR for all terminals with possible MVFR Monday afternoon. LLWS for all terminals except BHB tonight. WSW winds 5-10 kts.

Monday night...MVFR in rain showers mainly in the north. VFR elsewhere. Light and variable winds.

Tuesday-Wednesday: MVFR or lower likely at northern terminals and possible at southern terminals. LLWS possible Tuesday night. NW winds G15-20KT possible Wednesday.

Wednesday night-Thursday morning: VFR.

Thursday afternoon-Friday: MVFR or lower possible. S winds G15-20KT possible Thursday afternoon. LLWS possible Thursday night.

MARINE

A Small Craft Advisory remains for this afternoon into early this evening. Winds will gradually decrease throughout the rest of tonight and into Monday night.

From Tuesday-Friday winds sustained winds should be 15 kt or less and seas 4 ft or less over all waters.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ050- 051.