textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Updated aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Significant rainfall is expected today into Friday, which will be beneficial for the ongoing groundwater drought.

2) Unsettled weather continues through the weekend with several rounds of wetting rain.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Significant rainfall is expected today into Friday, which will be beneficial for the ongoing groundwater drought.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure will remain centered near NewFoundland today, while ridging back toward Maine. An upper level low crossing the northern Great Lakes will support a surface low lifting north across Quebec province today. A slow moving occluded front will extend south across New England from the Quebec low with an area of rain along the front. The NewFoundland high will slow the eastward advance of the front today. The steady rains with the frontal rain band will slowly advance eastward across the forecast area. Lighter rain, drizzle and patchy fog are possible this morning in advance of the frontal rain band. The occluded front will begin to cross the region tonight. A secondary low is expected to develop in the Gulf of Maine tonight which will then lift north across the Maine/New Brunswick border, along the front, overnight. Rain, possibly moderate to heavy at times, will occur across the entire forecast area early tonight. The focus of steadier rain will then move across eastern portions of the forecast area later tonight while decreasing across western areas. The steadiest rains Friday will occur across eastern and northern portions of the forecast area with the low exiting northeast across New Brunswick drawing the cold front east of the forecast area. The rain should diminish across eastern and northern portions of the forecast area Friday afternoon. Rainfall totals today through Friday are generally expected to range from around 1.00 to 1.50 inches across much of the forecast area. However, locally greater totals are possible, particularly across the favored upslope areas of the west-central highlands. Rivers and streams will rise, though current indications are that flooding is not expected to be a concern. Moderate to heavy rain this evening could lead to ponding concerns on area roads.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather continues through the weekend with several rounds of wetting rain.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A persistent closed upper level low will keep the surface level trof around through the weekend. The lingering instability will support continued rain shower chances. A brief dry period is likely on Saturday, though some diurnally driven convection in the afternoon could result in a few light rain showers late in the day. A larger closed low should move south of the Gulf of Maine on Sunday, but still bring rain across the south.

AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Today...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Rain developing, from west to east. Southeast/east winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots. Southeasterly low level wind shear Downeast into this afternoon.

Tonight...IFR/LIFR. Rain. Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming variable 5 to 10 knots. Southeasterly low level wind shear KVFE, KCAR, KPQI and KHUL through early morning.

Friday...IFR/LIFR early. VFR/MVFR late. Rain early, tapering to showers. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming west/northwest around 10 knots.

Friday night...VFR/MVFR with occasional IFR in lingering rain. W winds around 5 kts.

Saturday - Saturday night...VFR. Slight chance for rain showers Saturday afternoon with MVFR cigs possible in any showers. SW winds 5 to 10 kts becoming light and variable.

Sunday - Sunday night...VFR/MVFR cigs with a chance for rain, particularly at BHB/BGR. NW winds 5 to 10 kts.

Monday...VFR across all terminals. SW winds 5 to 10 kts.

MARINE

No change to any marine headlines with Small Craft Advisories for much of the waters and Gale Warnings for the outermost waters to 60 NM. Rain and patchy fog today and tonight. A slight chance of rain and patchy fog early Friday.

Gusts should remain below small craft advisory levels Friday through the weekend, while seas 4 to 6 ft gradually diminish to around 2 to 3 feet. Rain likely Saturday night into Sunday, which may limit visibilities.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ052. Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ080-081.