textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 8 PM Update to Aviation section with issuance of 00z TAFs. Capped wind gusts on intracoastals to below 35 kts through the storm with this update as well.

- Trended lower on rain and winds. For wind, delayed the start of the gale warning over the waters.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A Noreaster will impact at least Downeast Maine this weekend into Monday and possibly Tuesday, bringing gusty winds, high surf, and periods of rain.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A Noreaster will impact at least Downeast Maine this weekend into Monday and possibly Tuesday, bringing gusty winds, high surf, and periods of rain.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... We are still expecting a strong Noreaster to impact our area from through the weekend and into Monday. However, we will be on the far northern fringe of the Noreaster with the center staying south of Massachusetts through Sunday, and impacts in Northern regions through Sunday will be much less than areas further south. Here is what to expect for the various components of the storm:

Periods of Rain...Rain chances will be far greater Downeast than northern areas for the storm, with rain possibly developing late Saturday and Saturday night, and persisting off and on through Monday and possibly even Tuesday. Short range model guidance has adjusted the track of the system to remain much further south than previous thought. As a result, periods of rain should reach the Downeast coast by late Saturday afternoon, extending across Bangor and the interior Downeast by Saturday night. Rain fall totals have coalesced somewhat in with the updated track. Precipitation amounts between 0.25 inches and 1 inch are expected across the Bangor region with localized totals up to 1.5 inches along the coast. Much of this will wait until Sunday night and Monday to occur. Even with these totals, we would not expect flooding. Sunday night and Monday, a much weaker version of the Noreaster finally lifts north and tracks into the Gulf of Maine, at which point rain chances and totals finally increase over the whole area. Northern Maine could finally see some rain late Monday into Tuesday, but it looks like it will be fairly light with maybe around one quarter inch.

Gusty Winds...Winds from the northeast will increase Friday night into Saturday, before becoming gusty by Saturday and through Sunday, then decrease a bit into Monday. Winds will be stronger the further south you go but will top out around 25 mph across Bangor and the Downeast with the aforementioned southerly track of the system, with isolated higher amounts along the coast. We don't anticipate impacts from the wind other than maybe a very isolated outage Downeast.

High Surf...Seas near the shore will be fairly rough with 4-8 ft seas, much of it as a longer period south/southeast swell. We are not expecting impactful coastal flooding, though waves breaking on the rocks will be hazardous for any onlookers. Conditions should be a bit more hazardous for coastal Hancock than coastal Washington. Conditions slowly ease Sunday night into Monday.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

00z Update: Delayed timing of peak winds and lowered cigs, now most likely to occur beginning early Sunday morning.

Tonight...VFR at all terminals. Winds light and variable.

Saturday - Saturday night...VFR cross all terminals. Light winds increasing through the afternoon, becoming NE 10 to 15 kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts at Downeast terminals, and NE 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 15 kts at northern terminals. Rain moving in late to coastal terminals.

Sunday - Monday...VFR at Northern terminals, VFR/MVFR Downeast with rain likely at times. Across northern terminals, NE winds 5 to 10 kts. Across southern terminals, NE winds 10 to 15 kts, gusting 20 to 30 kts.

Monday Night and Tuesday...Generally MVFR with rain likely. NE wind 5-10 kts.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...Mainly VFR with light winds.

MARINE

Northeast winds slowly increase through Saturday night, peaking around 40kts in the outer waters and 35kts in the coastal waters by Saturday afternoon and persisting through Monday. A gale warning is now in effect in the outer waters, extending to the coastal waters by 8AM Saturday and persisting through 8PM Sunday. The updated storm track has lowered the risk of gales in the inter coastal waters, but a small craft advisory remains in effect. Wave heights have also diminished with outer waters around 8-13ft and 4-8ft in the coastal waters. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for coastal Hancock County where large waves could pose a rip current risk and impact people on rock outcrops. Winds/seas gradually decrease Sunday into Tuesday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for MEZ029. MARINE...Gale Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ050- 051. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ052. Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ080-081.