textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 6:50PM UPDATE...Have cancelled the Small Craft Advisory on the coastal waters and adjusted waves with latest observational trends. Minor tweaks to the POPs over the next several hours for isolated to scattered snow showers expected. No major changes.

- Increased precipitation chances tonight with shortwave moving across the north, slight increase to QPF during this time as well with light snow accumulation

- Increased precipitation chances and snow amounts for late Thursday to Friday likely light snow event for Northern Maine.

- Increased confidence in a Noreaster Sunday/Monday getting close enough to at least bring decent northeast winds to our area. However, still a tough call as to whether the snow reaches onshore or stays out to sea.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Light snow showers possible tonight with less than an inch of additional accumulation.

2) Potential for 1-3 inches of snow over Northern Maine late Thursday into Friday.

3) Potential Noreaster Sunday/Monday, but considerable uncertainty.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Light snow showers possible tonight with less than an inch of additional accumulation.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... With lingering northwest flow and a weak shortwave crossing the area tonight, isolated to scattered light snow showers may develop this evening into the overnight hours. The most likely area for these showers will be across the north, but isolated showers could make it as far south as the Interior Downeast region. Dry air will be building in the mid to upper levels through this time, so with lack of moisture support, showers will have very little to support much in the way of snowfall. Little additional accumulation, with less than an inch of snowfall expected. Cold temperatures will accompany this shortwave, with lows falling into the single digits below zero across the forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Potential for 1-3 inches of snow over Northern Maine late Thursday into Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A somewhat milder and moister environment works in from the northeast starting late Thursday, as air rotates around an upper level low pressure located around the Prince Edward Island to Newfoundland region. This brings the potential for a couple inches of snow to Northern Maine, mainly north of Houlton. NBM was far too low for PoPs and QPF and raised them some in the north, as models often underdo precipitation in a warm advection from the NE regime. Good atmospheric profiles exist for high snow ratios and good dendritic growth. That said, this storm late Thursday to Friday has a pretty low ceiling, and think that at very best a few places mainly in Northern/Central Aroostook could top out at 3 inches, and more likely Northern Maine totals will be an inch to possibly 2. Think that Downeast should stay dry. The warmer air coming in from the Canadian Maritimes isnt that much warmer and the warming will be limited to NE Maine, with temperatures still well below freezing but not bitterly cold.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Potential Nor'easter Sunday/Monday, but considerable uncertainty.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Late in the weekend, a Noreaster riding up the Eastern seaboard has the potential to greatly impact us. Roughly an equal number of models/ensembles have the precipitation from the Noreaster staying offshore over the Gulf of Maine, while the other half have potentially heavy snow reaching Maine. If the storm tracks close enough to the coast, wind could be a significant factor as well. Downeast would stand the best shot at getting significant snow/wind, but it is also possible it tracks further north to bring snow to Northern Maine. Bottom line is it is way too early to tell, but the storm bears close watching. There has been a bit of a northward/snowier trend in the models.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Tonight...MVFR cigs across the north with VFR conditions Downeast. MVFR cigs may briefly lift and scatter out this evening, before a round of light snow showers moves through northern terminals overnight, leading to another round of MVFR cigs and potential for MVFR or even briefly IFR vis. Conditions will improve back to MVFR by around 10z Wednesday morning. Winds become light and variable.

Wednesday - Wednesday night...VFR conditions across all terminals with NW winds at 5 to 10 kts.

Thursday...Mainly VFR. W wind 5-10 kts.

Thursday Night and Friday...Mainly MVFR north with light snow, and VFR south (BHB/BGR). W/NW wind 5-10 kts with gusts as high as 20 kts.

Friday night through Saturday Night...Mainly VFR. W wind 10 kts or less.

Sunday...Considerable uncertainty depending on track of Noreaster. IFR or worse if Noreaster tracks closer to the coast, or VFR if it tracks further out to sea. Potential for strong NE winds if Nor'easter tracks closer to coast.

MARINE

Tonight through Wednesday night... 6:50PM UPDATE...Seas have fallen below 5ft criteria for the SCA and therefore the Small Craft Advisory was cancelled.

Previous Discussion... Small craft advisory conditions continue this evening with seas 4 to 6 ft. With winds diminishing, seas will slowly respond, and the waters will likely fall below SCA criteria overnight tonight. Winds may begin to increase with gusts approaching 25 kts once more Wednesday morning on the coastal waters. At this time, low temperatures in the teens combined with breezy winds could lead to light to moderate freezing spray, though confidence in the chance for moderate freezing spray is too low at this point to issue an advisory. Conditions then improve into Wednesday night with seas 1 to 3 ft and offshore winds becoming light.

Thursday to Sunday... Small possibility (25 percent chance) of NW gales Thursday evening. Of more concern is the likelihood of gales and potential for even stronger winds around Sunday/Monday from a Noreaster. Still considerable uncertainty, but bears close watching. Seas 4 feet or less through Saturday night, then potential for seas around 10 feet toward Sunday depending on the track of the Noreaster. Moderate freezing spray is likely late Thursday night into Friday morning, with otherwise light freezing spray through most of the forecast period.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.