textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Increased chances of showers mainly in the north for today and tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Intermittent light rain mixed with snow, mainly north of Bangor, through today. Snow accumulations will be extremely minor, if any at all.

2) Potential for coastal storm development later in the week. However, uncertainty still exists.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Intermittent light rain mixed with snow, mainly north of Bangor, through today. Snow accumulations will be extremely minor, if any at all.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... As the weak low pressure system exits to the E, remaining shortwave energy will help produce precip showers today. In addition, instability values will begin to increase this morning and continue through the afternoon with about 50 J/kg for CAPE and steepening lapse rates. Thus the showers will be convective. The precip type will depend on temps in the north. Snow accumulation will be light, if any due to the warm surface temps.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Potential for coastal storm development later in the week. However, uncertainty still exists.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure will track from the Mid-Atlantic coast toward southern New England Thursday night. Current indications are that this low then tracks east/northeast, to the south of the Gulf of Maine, Friday while a secondary low develops in the wake of the initial low. Models have generally trended southward with this system. However, uncertainty still exists regarding the tracks of both the initial and secondary lows. The trend southward has, for now, decreased the potential impacts of this system across the forecast area. Potential impacts from this system, including precipitation types/amounts and possible snow accumulations, from Thursday night into Saturday will be dependent on the eventual tracks of these lows.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Today...VFR south, VFR/MVFR north due to isolated to scattered rain/snow showers. NW winds 10-15 kts.

Tonight through Thursday...VFR. Light and variable winds.

Thursday night...VFR north. Across Downeast areas, VFR early then lowering to MVFR/IFR with a chance of snow and rain. North/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots.

Friday...Across northern areas, VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of snow or rain late. Across Downeast areas, MVFR/IFR occasional LIFR with snow and rain. North/northeast winds 10 to 15 knots.

Friday night...Across northern areas, VFR/MVFR occasional IFR with a chance of snow. Across Downeast areas, MVFR/IFR occasional LIFR with rain and snow early, changing to snow overnight. North/northeast winds 10 to 15 knots.

Saturday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. A chance of snow and rain. North/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots.

Saturday night...VFR/MVFR. A slight chance/chance of snow and rain showers. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of snow and rain showers. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots.

MARINE

Small craft advisory continues through this morning for NW winds. Winds diminishing this afternoon/evening. Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight/Thursday.

Small craft advisory conditions develop Thursday night. Gale force wind gusts are possible Friday into Friday night. Small craft advisory conditions expected Saturday into Saturday night. Rain Thursday night into Saturday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ050-051.