textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 7:49AM UPDATE...The Dense Fog Advisory will expire across the Bangor Region, Interior Downeast and Upper Penobscot Valley at 8AM EDT. Have extended the Dense Fog Advisory for the Downeast Coast until 9AM EDT. The fog will continue to slowly lift as the sun angle increases. No other major changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A chance of mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms today and Sunday. Areas of dense fog this morning.

2) A chance of showers and storms nearly every afternoon from Monday through Friday. However, all-day rainfalls are not expected.

3) Very warm temperatures Monday through Friday and increasingly muggy. Hazardous heat is possible Wednesday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A chance of mostly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms today and Sunday. Areas of dense fog this morning.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Upper level troffing will persist across the region today into Sunday, with a series of disturbances moving through the trof. The disturbances, along with diurnal heating, will support the development of mostly afternoon showers and thunderstorms which will persist into the evening. The showers and thunderstorms will then dissipate tonight. Also, areas of fog will persist into this morning. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect through 8 AM for central and Downeast portions of the forecast area. Areas of fog will develop again tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A chance of showers and storms nearly every afternoon from Monday through Friday. However, all-day rainfalls are not expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Monday looks quieter for convection, with probably just an isolated shower Downeast. However, as the airmass moistens from Tuesday on, the chance of afternoon showers/storms increases. Also, the center of the upper level ridge axis will remain to our west and we will be under fairly unstable NW flow aloft, and with very warm temperatures and a muggy airmass, this is a very good pattern for severe weather at some point Tuesday to Friday. Hard to tell which day will have the best chance for severe storms, but this is definitely a pattern to watch for.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Very warm temperatures Monday through Friday and increasingly muggy. Hazardous heat is possible Wednesday through Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... In addition to the afternoon showers and storms, the heat is another thing to watch out for. There is still some uncertainty just how warm it will get, but at the least we will be looking at is low to mid 80s for highs and upper 50s to mid 60s for lows. The greatest risk for the warmest temperatures is Wednesday through Friday, as on Monday and Tuesday the heat will still be building. Can't rule out some places getting up to around 90 degrees Wednesday to Friday. In addition, it will be quite muggy and if we get air temperatures up close to 90, heat indices will likely begin to reach heat advisory criteria which is 95. Right now, for each day Wednesday through Friday, the chance of reaching heat advisory criteria (95 heat index) is 10-20 percent, highest in the area from Bangor to Dover-Foxcroft. The chance of reaching heat advisory at some point between Wednesday and Friday is 25-50 percent. In addition, nighttime low temperatures will be quite mild and those without air conditioning will really start feeling the effects later in the week.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Today: Variable conditions with fog early this morning. VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Tonight: VFR/MVFR early with any showers/thunderstorms ending during the evening. Variable conditions overnight with fog again developing. Light and variable winds.

Sunday: Variable conditions with any morning fog. VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday night-Wednesday: Areas of MVFR/IFR in the overnight and early morning hours from fog. Best chance of overnight and early morning MVFR/IFR is closer to the coast, but the possibility will exist anywhere. Generally VFR midday to evening hours except for in heavy showers, with the potential for thunderstorms. There will be a chance of afternoon showers and storms every day except Monday. Winds will be less than 10 kts.

MARINE

Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today through Sunday. A slight chance of showers this afternoon. A slight chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms Sunday. Areas of fog today through Sunday.

Through midweek, expecting winds less than 15kt over the waters 25-60nm and seas 2-3ft. Winds/seas below SCA conditions on the Intra-Coastal and Coastal Waters. Fog will reduce vsby less than 1nm at times through midweek on all the waters.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MEZ029-030. MARINE...None.