textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Increased rain/snow shower coverage through this early evening to adjust for KCBW and KGYX radar echos.

- Raised temperatures slightly tonight in eastern areas and lowered temperatures a couple degrees in the Moosehead Region to North Woods.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warmer, seasonable temperatures this weekend through early next week with no significant systems expected. The next chance for precipitation is around the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warmer, seasonable temperatures this weekend through early next week with no significant systems expected. The next chance for precipitation is around the middle of next week.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... We continue to be under the influence of a large upper level low over the Canadian Maritimes inside this large scale Omega Block over the CONUS. At 500mb on Saturday we can expect the ridge to breakdown to our west as the upper level low slides a little further east over the North Atlantic. This will allow surface high pressure to build down from Quebec. The airmass is gradually warming tomorrow but much of the guidance continues to keep the low close enough to allow for some cloud cover. A weak shortwave pivots around the low and will make for clouds to bubble up with cold air aloft. Surface high temperatures top out in the upper 40s to low 50s across the north, low to mid 50s from the Central Highlands to Downeast coast including the Greater Bangor Region. Expecting N winds 5-10mph occasionally gusting 15-20mph especially across the north.

High pressure overhead on Sunday will gradually exit to the east Monday night through Wednesday. As a result, dry conditions are expected along with a mix of sun and clouds. Temperatures are expected to be warmer, generally reaching the upper 50s and low 60s, which is just above normal for this time of year. As high pressure exits to the east mid-week, there is potential for a system approaching from the west to bring some rain to the area around the Wednesday night into Thursday time frame. Still some uncertainty in system evolution but most guidance is showing some potential for a low impact rain event.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Rest of this Afternoon...SCT MVFR cigs with mainly VFR conditions at northern terms. VFR at southern terms. VCSH thanks to -SHRASN widely scattered across the area. N winds 5-15kt gusting up to 25kt.

Tonight...VFR except turning MVFR cigs at northern terms between 08-10z tomorrow AM. N winds 5-10kt.

Saturday...MVFR cigs north becoming VFR late morning. VFR south. N winds 5-15kt with gusts up to 20kt.

Saturday night...Mainly VFR, MVFR cigs possible at southern terms late night. N winds less than 5kt.

Sunday through Monday Night...Mainly VFR, with a chance of MVFR ceilings Sunday, mainly in the AM hours. Generally light and variable winds.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Mainly VFR. S/SE wind 5-10 kts.

MARINE

North winds today into Saturday morning are generally gusting less than 20kt with the strongest gusts 35-60nm offshore. Winds will shift W during the day Saturday. Seas through tomorrow night generally 1-3ft. Winds and seas below SCA criteria Sunday through Tuesday night. Seas may reach low end SCA criteria on the Coastal Waters late Wednesday. Sea surface water temperatures range from 38-42F from the Downeast coast out 60NM and east to the Hague Line including Penobscot and Passamaquoddy Bays.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.