textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 6 AM Update to Aviation section below with updates associated with the 12z TAFs

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry weather with gradually increasing temperatures through the end of the week under high pressure.

2) Potential for a system moving in early next week to bring another round of wetting rainfall.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather with gradually increasing temperatures through the end of the week under high pressure.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure continues to settle over the area through the late week, returning a subsidence pattern to the CWA which will help clear skies and lead to a drier weather pattern. As the center of the ridge axis slowly moves into the area, an increased pressure gradient aloft will allow for winds to be gusty through the day today. The ridge axis will settle over the state by tonight, and calmer winds are in store for the rest of the week.

Since the high pressure is not fully established over the entire forecast area this afternoon, there is a slight chance for some afternoon diurnally-driven showers across the St. John Valley. Any rainfall from these showers will be light as there will not be very much instability to support these showers, and PWATs will be rapidly dropping as the drier air mass moves into the area, limiting moisture availability.

Temperatures will gradually increase through the end of the week. Today will be the coolest day, with highs only in the low to mid 70s. By this weekend, daily high temperatures will lift just above average, reaching into the low to mid 80s. Overnight, clear skies and calm winds tonight will allow for effective radiational cooling, and lows could dip to around 50 Downeast, and into the upper 40s across the north.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Potential for a system moving in early next week to bring another round of wetting rainfall.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... On Monday next week, a shortwave trough approaches from the west, bringing the next round of moisture into the area that could bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms. A more organized system which could produce a wetting rainfall is possible Tuesday into Wednesday though details are still uncertain as to how much precipitation is expected.

AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Today...VFR conditions across all terminals. Windy, with SW to W winds increasing to 10 to 15 kts with gusts increasing to 20 to 30 kts in the afternoon. Winds become light and variable in the evening.

Thursday night through Monday...Variable conditions in any patchy late night fog. Otherwise, generally VFR. S/SW winds 5 to 10 kts Saturday through Monday, becoming light and variable each night.

MARINE

Seas remain elevated this morning at around 5 to 9 ft, along with a southerly swell with 9 to 10 second period that continues through the day today. Seas will begin to gradually decrease through this afternoon, falling to 3 to 5 ft by tonight. Winds and seas below SCA criteria Thursday night through Monday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050- 051. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ052.