textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Updated aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Areas of fog again tonight and Wednesday night. Fog could be locally dense at times and impact travel. Dense fog is most likely in low-lying areas.

2) Chance of showers and storms on Wednesday. Showers and storms will be isolated to scattered in nature, with the better chance over North/Northwest Maine.

3) There is the potential for widespread rainfall from Sunday into Monday. It is not certain how much, if any, relief this could bring to the developing drought at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Areas of fog again tonight and Wednesday night. Fog could be locally dense at times and impact travel. Dense fog is most likely in low-lying areas.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... With very light winds and a moist airmass at low levels persisting, fog is likely again tonight and tomorrow night. While fog this morning tended to cling to the hilltops for inland areas, think that tonight's fog and lower visibilities will tend to be in lower-lying valleys as the fog will be more of a classic radiation fog. Similar situation in store for Wednesday night. Nighttime dense fog always adds challenges to driving conditions with significant wildlife activity at night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Chance of showers and storms on Wednesday. Showers and storms will be isolated to scattered in nature, with the better chance over North/Northwest Maine.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Today's convection has been a dud so far, so lowered shower chances and eliminated thunder chances for the rest of this afternoon. For Wednesday, there should be just enough instability and lift ahead of a weak approaching cold front that there could be some afternoon showers/storms. Chances however are generally 30 percent or less, with the better storm chances over North/Northwest Maine. We don't expect any of the storms to be on the stronger side.

KEY MESSAGE 3...There is the potential for widespread rainfall from Sunday into Monday. It is not certain how much, if any, relief this could bring to the developing drought at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... A closed low tracks from near the Great Lakes on Sunday to southwestern Quebec/Northern New England by Monday evening. Based on the ensemble consensus would expect warm advection rain, with embedded convection from Sunday through Monday. The latter is most likely in the afternoon/early evening. At this point in time, given the inherent uncertainty in days 6 and 7 in the forecast, plus the added uncertainty given the storm type (even if somewhat mitigated by a degree of consensus in the ensembles), it is to early to state what, if any, impacts this system may have on the region.

AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Overnight...Variable conditions with areas of fog. Otherwise, VFR. Light and variable winds.

Wednesday...Variable conditions with any fog early. Otherwise, generally VFR. Isolated afternoon showers/thunderstorms possible. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south/southwest.

Wednesday night: MVFR or lower possible in patchy fog or any convection ahead of the cold front, then becoming VFR overnight.

Thursday-Saturday: VFR.

Sunday: MVFR/IFR in rain showers. E winds 5-10 kts.

MARINE

Intermittent fog over the waters through Wednesday night, more prevalent during nighttime hours. Fairly light winds through Wednesday night. Seas to increase to about 4 ft tonight as a S swell. Cannot rule out seas to 5 ft, but not enough confidence to issue any small craft advisory.

A relaxed pressure gradient over the waters from Thursday through Saturday should allow for winds of 10kt or less and seas of 4 ft or less across the waters out to 60nm. Sunday could see an increase in winds up to 15 kts with 2-4 ft seas. Rain showers with possible afternoon thunderstorms expected.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.