textproduct: Caribou

SYNOPSIS

An area of low pressure tracks from northeastern New York Sunday evening to near southeastern Nova Scotia early Monday morning. High pressure builds in behind this system through Monday night, then slides offshore on Tuesday. Another weak low tracks across the Gulf of Maine Tuesday night. A stronger low pressure system tracks from the Great Lakes Wednesday morning to the southern Canadian Maritimes by Thursday morning, followed by a cold front crossing the area on Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Snow will spread across the southern tier of the forecast area late tonight and continue over night as a weak low pressure system passes just offshore. The low will strengthen slightly as it moves into southern Canada, enhancing QPF over the southeastern corner of the state. Although snowfall will be fairly minimal for the rest of the area, including Bangor, 3 to 5 inches is expected over southern Washington County. A winter weather advisory has been issues for this area. Behind the low, winds will increase with high pressure building in, mainly offshore with the northern flow. See more detail in the marine section. As for the land, the high building in will also bring another round of very cold air, so temperatures Monday and Monday night will be well below normal, and below 0F in many locations.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Key Messages -Light snow accumulation Tuesday night -Larger system approaches Wednesday with snow and rain

The high pressure system exits over the waters on Tuesday, making for clear skies in the morning. Clouds start to move in in the afternoon as the next low approaches. A warm frontal boundary should stretch well to the north, switching winds to onshore flow. For Tuesday night, with weak low pressure system should move into the region. The onshore flow should keep temps above zero, though in the single digits or teens across the area. The weak low pressure system should bring some light snow across the area with higher amounts round 2 inches in Downeast.

For Wednesday, a larger low pressure system moves in later in the day. Warmer S flow should push temps into the 20s in the north and upper 30s in the south. Snow is expected to be light in the afternoon with higher amounts in the Central Highlands. Areas south of the Central Highlands should see a mix of rain/snow or rain.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Key Messages -Active period with cold single digit nighttime temperatures

The low pressure system should exit the area by Thursday, making for warmer temps, breezy winds, and cloudy skies. Upper level models show a fairly active extended period as the upper level trof swings through one shortwave after another. The further south jet stream puts the area in the left exit region, thus a more active area. The models lose consistency towards the end of the week due to uncertainty of the trof pattern.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

NEAR TERM: VFR today. Conditions deteriorate to MVFR tonight after 0z for southern terminals with light snow and after 3z for northern terminals with snow showers. Snow may reduce visibility to IFR for brief periods, mainly at southern terminals. Conditions improve to VFR Monday morning. Light and variable winds becoming northerly 10 to 15 kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts Monday.

SHORT TERM: Tuesday...VFR. W winds becoming S 5-10 kts.

Tue night...MVFR/IFR in snow. Light S winds.

Wed...MVFR/IFR in snow north and rain south. SSE winds 5-10 kts.

Wed night...MVFR in exiting snow. Variable winds around 5 kts.

Thu...MVFR early, then VFR. W winds 5-10 kts.

Fri...VFR. W winds 5-10 kts.

MARINE

NEAR TERM: Winds are currently below SCA criteria but are expected to increase above 25kts late tonight, then build to a short period of gales over the outer waters tomorrow morning. Winds will decrease below 35 kts by afternoon, but continue to gust to around 25 kts through tomorrow evening. Seas will build to 4 to 5 feet tonight through late tomorrow.

SHORT TERM: SCA conditions expected Tuesday. Could see a return to gale force conditions Tuesday night, otherwise SCA conditions are likley mid to late week.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Monday for MEZ017-030. MARINE...Gale Warning from 7 AM to 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 11 PM EST Monday for ANZ052.