textproduct: Caribou

SYNOPSIS

Low pressure will track north of the area today and into the Northern Maritimes tonight. High pressure will build south of the area Monday, then rebuild across the north on Tuesday as low pressure tracks to the south. High pressure will cross the area Wednesday into Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

915am Update...Added snow showers to the forecast for northern and central Maine through early afternoon as snow showers and squalls over the Quebec province remain numerous and intense. Still expecting the potential for snow squalls which could result in reduced visibility and icy roads.

Previous Discussion... The weak occlusion that brought some light snow over the north will continue east into the Maritimes today as low pressure tracks north of the region. This will bring a breezy and mild morning with highs from the low to mid 30s north to the low 40s south. A cold front will cross the area around midday ushering in colder air and shifting the wind from southwesterly to westerly. Some snow showers and possibly an isolated snow squall will accompany the cold front around midday across central and northern areas. Forecast model soundings are showing some steep lapse rates with a bit of thin CAPE midday from around 3K ft up to 10K ft over the north. Convergence along the front may work with the steep laps rates to produce a band of convective snow along the front. Temperatures dropping after the front will bring a risk of wet roads becoming icy and slippery this afternoon.

Tonight and Monday will be partly cloudy, breezy and cold with a northwesterly wind. Wind chills will be near zero through the day on Monday as the gradient between high pressure to our southwest and low pressure to our northeast maintains a gusty northwesterly wind.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Key Messages 1) Below normal temps for Tuesday 2) Light snow Downeast Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night, impacting holiday travel

Key Message 1... High pressure will be cresting over the region Monday night with overnight lows dropping below zero acrs the north and into the single digits elsewhere. Cannot rule out cold temps in the deeper valleys acrs the north, if skies can clear overnight. The 50th percentile of the NBM for min temps Tuesday is about 3-5 degrees colder than current forecast over northwest zones.

Sfc high will build east into New Brunswick on Tuesday afternoon with with clouds increasing during the day. Warm advection doesn/t kick in until Tuesday night with highs running between 5-10 degrees blo normal.

Key Message 2... Northwest flow aloft will bring a s/wv into the northeast U.S. Tuesday evening. This wave will result in sfc low deepening in the vicinity of the northeast, possibly bringing light snow into Downeast as early as late Tuesday afternoon though uncertainty continues for the end of the period. At this time it appears that sfc low will work south of the Gulf of Maine Wednesday morning with hints of a Norlun Trough developing, bringing an inverted trough to the coast and into the Bangor Region. Cannot rule out a 1-3 inches of snow Tuesday night up into interior Downeast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Key Messages 1) Christmas Day looks quiet and cold 2) Possible storm late in the week or over the weekend

Key Message 1... High pressure both at sfc and aloft will keep upper level disturbances from impacting the area on Christmas Day. However, cannot rule out an isolated snow shower over the north during the afternoon but that will be the exception as opposed to the rule. High temperatures will run close to 5 degrees below normal on Christmas Day.

Key Message 2... Digging upr level trof will be working into eastern Canada late in the long term. Operational 00z GFS indicates elongated sfc low along the Maine coast Friday afternoon while GFS ensemble members are pretty much all over the place, as are the Canadian ensemble members along with 18z Euro members. Will continue with NBM trend of chance for light snow on Friday all areas with upr trof approaching CWA from the west however confidence remains low for impactful system thru the end of the period.

AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

NEAR TERM: VFR to occasionally MVFR conditions north are expected today with the risk that a snow squall briefly lowers conditions to IFR over the north around midday. VFR conditions south. Gusty SW winds and wind shear around 2K ft. VFR tonight and Monday. Gusty W to NW winds.

SHORT TERM: Monday night...VFR. WNW 5kts.

Tuesday...VFR early, then MVFR in light snow late afternoon. Light winds.

Tuesday night...MVFR north and IFR/LIFR in snow at Downeast terminals. NNE 5kts.

Wednesday...MVFR north, IFR south in snow early. Improving to VFR in the afternoon. NNW 5kts.

Wednesday night-Thursday...Mainly VFR, though may see MVFR north in snow showers. Light W becoming 5-10kts in the afternoon.

MARINE

NEAR TERM: A gale warning will continue today and tonight for gusty SW Winds today and W winds tonight, dropping to a SCA on Monday. Seas up to 11 ft today, dropping to 7 ft tonight and 5 ft on Monday.

SHORT TERM: Winds drop below small craft levels Monday night with no headlines expected through the day on Tuesday. Cannot rule out gale force winds late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Seas increase to aoa 5ft during the same period in southeasterly swell. Conditions fall back below small craft levels on Wednesday evening and through the day on Thursday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ050>052.