textproduct: Caribou

KEY MESSAGES

1) A significant winter storm Monday into Monday night with heavy snow and blowing snow. Blizzard conditions likely along the coast Monday afternoon into early evening.

2) Clipper system Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday will bring snow to the region, with possible travel impacts expected for the Thursday morning commute.

3) Potential for periods of heavy snow showers in the north Thursday afternoon, reducing visibility.

4) A chance for a winter storm Friday, with both rain and accumulating snowfall possible, potentially impacting travel.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A significant winter storm Monday into Monday night with heavy snow and blowing snow. Blizzard conditions likely along the coast Monday afternoon into early evening.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure rapidly intensifies tonight as it moves northeast off the southern New England coast, then maintains its strength as a strong low pressure system as it tracks northeast through the southern Gulf of Maine during the day Monday. This looks like a classic higher-end Nor'easter, with strong northeast winds and the threat of blizzard conditions mainly along the coast. Snow starts roughly mid-morning Monday along the coast and over Downeast, then slowly spreads north through the day, not reaching Northern/Central Aroostook until late afternoon or early evening. Snowfall rates will reach around 0.75 to 1 inch per hour Downeast in the afternoon to early evening, and coupled with sustained winds 25-35 mph and gusts 40-50 mph, blizzard conditions are possible. Feel the greatest threat is for the immediate coast, and have issued blizzard warning for these areas due to the highest confidence there. The winds will be strong enough for blizzard in the Bangor region, but just not convinced the snow will be falling hard enough to lead to a true blizzard this far north/northwest, so have just a winter storm warning for these areas a bit further inland from Bangor northeast to Northern Washington County. There will be a northwest edge to the heaviest 8-12 inch snow area, and there is still some uncertainty where this sets up. Feel confident in the 8-12 inch totals for Central/Southern Washington County, but somewhere west of that amounts could drop off pretty rapidly. Some of the latest guidance is trending a bit further south/east with the heavier snow cutoff line, and trended forecast slightly in this less snowy direction. Totals will drop pretty rapidly from 8-12 inches Downeast to nearly nothing in the western North Woods. Winds will be present through the area though, with gusts 30-40 mph in the north and 40-50 mph Downeast. Blowing snow can be expected throughout, but it should be worse the further southeast you go. Falling snow will taper off from west to east Monday night. Still some blowing snow persisting though into the day Tuesday, but not as bad as Monday afternoon/evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Clipper system Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday will bring snow to the region, with possible travel impacts expected for the Thursday morning commute.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Clipper system originating in Saskatchewan moves into the region Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Low intensifies over the Great Lakes region Wednesday morning, and then occludes over the region during the afternoon. Decent pressure gradient associated with this system that could result in some gusty winds along the coast. Predominantly snow expected to fall, with a potential for some rain/snow mix to occur along thew immediate Downeast coast. Guidance has a few inches of snowfall accumulating Downeast and the coast. Seems like models have been bringing this system a little closer to the coast, thus increasing accumulation totals a bit. Precipitation expected to move out by Thursday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Potential for periods of heavy snow showers in the north Thursday afternoon, reducing visibility.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Once clipper system moves out of the region by Thursday morning, little shortwave disturbances linger in the far northern region of Maine. There is decent low level lapse rates, lift, and some snow squall parameters. This being said, plenty of dry air aloft, and only looking at moisture in the lower 850mb or so. Not very confident in squall criteria being met, but could see a quick burst of snowfall during the afternoon. Not anticipating much in terms of accumulations. Could see a quick burst of half an inch to an inch. Reduced visibility while showers move through.

KEY MESSAGE 4...A chance for a winter storm Friday, with both rain and accumulating snowfall possible, potentially impacting travel.

Models are in agreement that another winter storm system could move into the area on Friday. Models are disagreeing with the exact track of the storm, with the GFS trending the storm a bit more north, while the ECWMF keeps the system along the coast. These separate tracks could result in vastly different solutions, as the GFS has a potential for significant snowfall accumulations throughout the region, and the ECWMF just have a few inches Downeast. There does seem to be agreement for the region to be under the left exit region of a 250mb jet on Friday, which would support further snowfall. Overall, continue to monitor the forecasts for updates to this system. At the very least, anticipating some travel impacts to occur early Friday into Saturday.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Tonight...VFR with light N winds early, increasing to about 10 kts closer to 12z Downeast at BGR/BHB.

Monday and Monday Night...Deteriorating conditions from south to north. Snow begins at BGR/BHB roughly 15z, slowly spreading north and reaching PQI/CAR around 22z. Snow continues into Monday evening, tapering off from west to east overnight. Expect IFR or lower BGR/BHB especially due to visibility which will be restricted in heavy/blowing snow. MVFR/IFR for northern TAF sites Monday night. Winds from the northeast 15-25 kts with gusts around 35 kts for BGR/BHB, and about 10-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts for northern TAF sites from HUL north. Possible LLWS Monday, but surface winds will also be strong so decided not to put LLWS in TAFs.

Tuesday...Possible MVFR north, VFR south. NW wind 10-15 kts with gusts 25 kts. Some lingering blowing snow possible.

Tuesday Night...Generally VFR. W wind around 5-10 kts.

Wednesday...MVFR/IFR possible by the afternoon due to snow. Rain/snow possible along the immediate coast. SW wind becoming SE around 5 to 10 kt. Gusts to 15 kts.

Wednesday Night...Continued MVFR/IFR conditions, as snow moves eastwards. Light and variable winds.

Thursday...MVFR early, possibly becoming VFR. Chance for periods of heavier snow showers to develop at northern terminals during the afternoon. W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts to 15 kts.

Thursday Night - Friday Potential for a winter storm to move into the region. MVFR/IFR possible. Currently thinking snow in the north, and potential for mixed precip types southeast. W winds overnight, shifting E by daybreak at, and shifting back to W by evening. Gusts up to 20 kts possible.

MARINE

High confidence in storm force NE winds Monday/Monday evening. Seas build to around 15 ft. Conditions gradually improve during the day Tuesday with NW winds down to small craft levels in the afternoon.

Small Craft conditions expected over the outer waters Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Small Craft conditions expected again Wednesday into Thursday, Friday into Friday night, and Saturday night into Sunday. Light freezing spay Tuesday night. Chance for rain/snow Wednesday, and again Thursday night through Friday. Winds from the NW Tuesday night, shifting S by Wednesday night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for MEZ005-006-011-031. Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for MEZ015>017-032. Blizzard Warning from 7 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Storm Warning from 6 AM Monday to 4 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050- 051. Storm Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM EST Monday for ANZ052.