textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Increased snow shower chances on Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Intermittent light rain showers, possibly mixed with snow, will impact areas north of Bangor through Wednesday.

2) Potential for coastal storm development later in the week. However, significant uncertainty still exists.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Intermittent light rain showers, possibly mixed with snow, will impact areas north of Bangor through Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A weak low pressure system over Quebec will track E towards the state today. Precip is expected to begin in the afternoon with mainly rain/snow mix in the north and rain in the south. Cannot rule out a light accumulation of snow in the North Woods. By tonight, chances of snow showers in the north increases, though accumulation will still be light. By Wednesday, remaining moisture, shortwave energy, CAPE values around 50 J/kg, and steep lapse rates will aid in the development of isolated showers throughout the day. High res models indicate that the snow showers should stay north of the Bangor Region and be a mix of rain showers and snow showers depending where and when the convective initiation is.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Potential for coastal storm development later in the week. However, significant uncertainty still exists.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure will develop along the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday. This initial low will then track northeast Thursday night into the weekend. A second low should then develop Friday and also track northeast into Saturday. However, significant uncertainty regarding the tracks of these lows still exists. Potential impacts from these lows, including precipitation types/amounts, Thursday night into the weekend will be dependent on the eventual tracks of these lows.

AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Today...VFR/MVFR cigs for the north terminals and VFR for south terminals. W winds 5-10 kts.

Tonight...MVFR/IFR with occasional LIFR in the north due to showers and low cigs. VFR for south terminals. Light and variable winds.

Wednesday...VFR south, VFR/MVFR north in isolated rain/snow showers. NW winds 5-10 kts.

Wednesday night through Thursday...VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday night...VFR north. VFR/MVFR Downeast with a slight chance of snow late. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north/northeast.

Friday through Saturday...Significant uncertainty with conditions dependent on the eventual tracks of two lows.

MARINE

Winds decrease to 10-15 kts during the day today. Tonight, W-SW winds are expected to increase across the coastal and outer waters reaching up to 30 kts. Winds should decrease again by Wednesday and remain below SCA levels.

Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Wednesday night/Thursday. Small craft advisory conditions then develop Thursday night. Conditions Friday into the weekend will then be dependent on the eventual strength/track of two lows for which significant uncertainty still exists.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.