textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Slowed the rain exiting on Monday by increasing the rain chances throughout the south.

KEY MESSAGES

1) There is the potential for widespread rainfall from Sunday into Monday. It is not certain how much, if any, relief this could bring to the ongoing drought at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...There is the potential for widespread rainfall from Sunday into Monday. It is not certain how much, if any, relief this could bring to the ongoing drought at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A closed low pressure system developing over the Mid Atlantic coast will progress north on Saturday and move rain into the region Saturday night. The CAMs are starting to grab onto the storm giving a clearer picture of the rain timeline. Expect rain to begin along the coast Saturday evening and push NNE through Saturday night. The question for Saturday night will be how much rainfall will occur, especially for areas in the north. Unfortunately, the ensembles still disagree on amounts as of this update. After midnight, the center of the low will be over Downeast.

As this coastal low moves northward, a vertically stacked low pressure system centered over the Great Lakes will progress E over New England. This new low is expected to weaken the coastal low, which will increase the amount of moisture within the stronger low. By Sunday, expect widespread rainfall continuing throughout the day. Throughout Sunday night, the low becomes stationary over Quebec as it rotates the moisture through the state. By Monday, the low begins to gradually move north which will decrease rain chances throughout the day.

Since the rain amounts are unknown as of this update, it is unknown if this system will bring any relief to the ongoing drought.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 00z...VFR. Light NW winds.

Tonight...Mainly VFR. MVFR/IFR restrictions in patchy fog at HUL and PQI between 06-12z.

Saturday...VFR. MVFR late in the afternoon with low cigs and showers. ESE winds 5-15kts.

Saturday night...MVFR/IFR in rain showers. Cannot rule out a tstm for BGR/BHB. E winds 5-15 kts.

Sunday-Monday: MVFR/IFR in rain showers. Slight chance for thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday afternoon. Chance for fog at KBHB Sunday night into early Monday morning. S/SE winds at 5-10 kts Sunday night, becoming SW on Monday. Gusts 15-20 kts possible on Monday afternoon.

Monday night-Tuesday: MVFR at northern terminals in rain showers Monday night, and again Tuesday afternoon. VFR at KBGR/KBHB. SW winds at 5-10 kts.

Wednesday...VFR. W winds 5-10 kts.

MARINE

Winds generally below 20kts through Saturday night, though east winds approach 25kts over 25-60NM waters Saturday afternoon/evening. Seas build to 2-4 ft with highest seas over the waters from 25-60nm Saturday evening. Patchy fog and showers may reduce visibilities aob 5NM.

Slight chance of winds or seas reaching 25 kts/5 ft Monday- Tuesday. Fog likely the next few nights. Rain moves in Saturday, with a chance for thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. E winds Saturday night, becoming S on Sunday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029- 030. MARINE...None.