textproduct: Caribou

SYNOPSIS

Weak high pressure exits to the east this evening. Low pressure tracks east of Nova Scotia Sunday. High pressure builds across the region Monday into Tuesday. Low pressure will track north of the region Wednesday. High pressure builds in on Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Main Points: * Light snowfall tonight through Sunday Downeast and into the North Woods * Cold wind chills Sunday night could dip below zero

Discussion: The weak ridge of high pressure will continue to exit to the east tonight, allowing for increasing cloud cover. A low pressure system will move into the CWA during the day on Sunday, bringing scattered snow showers to the region. The most likely area for any accumulation from these snow showers will be on the upslope side of higher terrain in the Central Highlands due to the parent low approaching from the west, and along the coast due to a developing coastal low. Total snowfall will be light, with highest amounts being up to around an inch near the coast.

Cold temperatures will follow this low pressure system Sunday night, with temperatures falling into the single digits to lower teens across the forecast area. As winds begin to pick up under the tightening pressure gradient aloft, wind chills late Sunday night may dip below zero.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

A northwest flow at both the surface and aloft will prevail on Monday in the wake of low pressure exiting through the Canadian Maritimes. It should be dry with partly sunny to mostly cloudy conditions across the north and mainly sunny for the Bangor region and Downeast. Afternoon high temperatures on Monday will continue below normal with a gusty northwest wind. Short wave crosses the region Monday evening but it will remain dry. High pressure builds back in for Tuesday with more dry northwest flow expected. Afternoon highs Tuesday will be continued below normal.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Clouds increase Tuesday evening in advance of the next approaching short wave and cold front from Quebec. It should be mainly dry Tuesday night, although a few flurries not totally out of question north. Expect mainly cloudy skies on Wednesday with the chance for afternoon snow showers across northern areas as the cold front nears. The cold front sweeps through Wednesday night with a continued chance for snow showers north. High pressure builds back in both surface and aloft for Thursday with dry weather and seasonably cold conditions expected. Clouds once again will be on the increase Thursday night as low pressure tracks well to our northwest Thursday night. This will allow for a southerly flow of milder air to surge northward out in advance of an approaching cold front. Thus, expect precipitation Thursday night to be in the form of rain for the Bangor region and Downeast. Across northern areas, expect precipitation to begin as snow and then transition to rain later at night as temperatures continue to rise. Steadier precipitation will end early Friday as the front sweeps to the east. High pressure build back in for Friday night and Saturday. Afternoon highs on Friday will be above normal and then back to below normal levels by Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

NEAR TERM: Tonight... Conditions as of 0z are generally VFR, with localized MVFR mainly toward BHB in isolated snow showers. Through the night, look for a general lowering trend in ceilings, with a mix of MVFR/low VFR ceilings as the night goes on. Not high confidence, but think that FVE/CAR/PQI/HUL have the best shot at MVFR cigs later tonight (FVE with the best shot of these four sites), and put in predominant MVFR cigs in the TAFs for later in the night. Other sites (BHB/BGR) could get MVFR later tonight, but less than 50 percent confidence and kept out of TAFs through 12z. Light winds tonight.

Sunday... MVFR cigs most places in the AM hours, and generally VFR in the afternoon. Light winds becoming NW up to 10 kts.

Sunday Night...Mainly MVFR cigs from HUL north, and mainly VFR BGR/BHB. NW wind around 10 kts.

SHORT TERM:

Mon through Tue night...Mainly VFR. Gusty NW wind on Mon.

Wed and Wed night...MVFR possible north in scattered snow showers, otherwise VFR.

Thu...VFR.

MARINE

NEAR TERM: Wind gusts over the coastal waters will briefly reach 25 to 30 kts this afternoon into this evening before tapering off once again after midnight tonight while seas return to 3 to 5 ft. The intracoastal waters will also see an increase in winds, but gusts will max out at around 20 kts tonight. A slight improvement will allow for conditions across the waters to fall below small craft advisory criteria into the day on Sunday, before conditions will ramp back up to strong SCA conditions across the waters Sunday night. There is a chance the coastal waters could see gusts up to gales by late Sunday night. Cold temperatures will couple with these winds Sunday night for the development of light freezing spray.

SHORT TERM: Gale force wind gusts are possible Monday into Monday evening. SCA conditions are possible from Tuesday night through late next week. Light freezing spray expected on Monday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Sunday for ANZ050-051.