textproduct: Caribou

SYNOPSIS

Low pressure moves to east central Quebec by Friday morning, then into the northern Canadian Maritimes Friday and Friday night. High pressure builds in Saturday and Saturday night, then exits to the east on Sunday,as low pressure approaches from the west. A warm front, then a cold front crosses the area Sunday night. High pressure moves in from the west on Monday. Low pressure moves in Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Key Messages -Scattered to isolated snow showers on Friday could produce a quick inch of snow and low visibilities -Breezy Friday night could bring some cold wind chills

The frontal boundary continues to exit to the NE while the wrap around moisture from the occlusion moves into the region. For tonight, skies will be generally cloudy some some clearing through the night. Light onshore winds will keep temps in the 20s. For Friday, winds become more SW and breezy as the pressure gradients tighten around the low. Upper air model soundings indicate a period in the afternoon where instability values will increase. The concern will be the potential for isolated to scattered snow showers that could produce localized amounts up to 1 inch in a short time. This will also reduce visibilities, making for dangerous conditions for travelers. For Friday night, some isolated showers could last into the early night. Since winds will continue to be breezy and temps will decrease into the low 20s, cold wind chill temps into the teens are possible.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Key Messages

-Light snow event possible Sunday mainly northern areas

A mainly dry west to northwest flow is expected Saturday as low pressure near Labrador continues to slowly exit and high pressure to out southwest builds east. Afternoon high temperatures will range from the lower 30s north and mid to upper for th Bangor region and Downeast, which is just a bit below normal for this time of year.

Saturday evening begins mainly clear followed by increasing mid and high level clouds later Saturday night. Lows will range from the lower teens north to around 20 for the Bangor region.

Low pressure will track from the Great Lakes region early Sunday and then quickly into Quebec province Sunday night. Warm advection aloft results in precipitation developing from west to east early Sunday. Along the coast expect precipitation to begin as mainly rain but snow elsewhere. Precipitation then changes rather quickly to all rain by later Sunday afternoon south of a Dover Foxcroft to Houlton line. The precipitation across eastern Aroostook could end as a rain snow mix before ending later Sunday night.

A low level jet will also bring the potential for some stronger winds to the Downeast coast later Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, possibly nearing advisory conditions.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Key Messages

-Snow possible Tuesday and Tuesday night -Below normal temperatures

Low pressure intensifies as it tracks through Labrador during Monday. A few snow showers not totally out of the question across the north on Monday but will keep it mainly dry at this point and time. A tightening pressure gradient around the low to our northeast and potential for a deepening mixed layer could result in a rather gusty wind during Monday.

Monday night will be mainly clear and dry resulting in radiational cooling. Lows across northern areas may bottom out near the zero degree mark.

The attention on Tuesday will turn to low pressure tracking northeast from the mid atlantic region. This system has the potential to bring accumulating snow to the region Tuesday and Tues day night. This will ultimately depend on how far north the lows tracks which is still uncertain this far out in time.

The aforementioned low tracks northeast away from the region on Wednesday. Another frontal system may approaches by Thursday.

Afternoon highs on Monday will be near normal and then below normal through the middle of next week.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

NEAR TERM: VFR conditions for all terminals tonight, Friday, and Friday night. Isolated to scattered snow showers are possible on Friday, mainly for north terminals. Any snow showers could briefly reduce vsby to IFR/LIFR. Tonight, SSW winds around 5 kts. Friday, WSW winds 10-15 kts. Friday night, W winds 5-15 kts.

SHORT TERM: Sat and Sat night VFR. NW wind becoming light S Sat night.

Sun and Sun night...MVFR or lower. Snow and rain.

Mon...VFR, except possible MVFR north. Gusty NW wind.

Tue...MVFR or lower possible in snow, especially south.

MARINE

NEAR TERM: Winds and waves will be at SCA conditions tonight through Friday afternoon. By Friday afternoon, winds will increase to gale force. A Gale Warning has been issued for Friday afternoon through Friday night.

SHORT TERM: Strong SCA conditions expected Saturday through Sunday night, perhaps even low end gales.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ050- 051. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ052.