textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Increased confidence in wetting rain chances near the coast early next week

KEY MESSAGES

1) Fair weather this weekend will give way to more unsettled weather into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Fair weather this weekend will give way to more unsettled weather into early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure builds in through the weekend, with drier weather and cooler temperatures returning to the forecast area. High temperatures each day may only lift into the 70s, and skies could remain mostly sunny on Saturday. By Sunday, cloud cover may begin to increase once more ahead of the next approaching low pressure system, though there is the possibility this system could slow upon approach, delaying the onset of mostly cloudy skies to early next week.

The next low pressure system to cross the area early next week will be in the form of a cold front which brings another round of rain and chance for thunderstorms. Current trends suggest showers will remain scattered along the boundary as they move through as there will be a lack of deep moisture support, but if the trough deepens more and reaches further into the Gulf, there could be more numerous showers and storms due to the synoptic forcing of the cold front. The latest ECMWF and CMC guidance suggest the potential for a triple point low along the coast as this system enters our area, which could better enhance forcing along the coast and support higher rainfall totals through the Downeast region. Meanwhile, the GFS keeps the feature as an ordinary cold front pushing through the forecast area. The GFS-AI model does parallel the coastal low thinking, along with other AI guidance and the end of the RRFS run, so the potential exists for better wetting rains near the coast, much as the NBM has with at least a quarter of an inch of widespread rainfall Downeast.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Tonight-Saturday...VFR. IFR fog possible at terminals early morning, most likely PQI and HUL. NW winds 5 to 15 kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts will decrease overnight, becoming NW at 5 to 10 kts by Saturday.

Saturday night...VFR under SKC. Patchy fog possible, mainly in river valleys. NW winds 5 to 10 kts, becoming light and variable.

Sunday...VFR. SW winds 5 to 10 kts.

Sunday night-Monday night...MVFR/IFR due to showers and thunderstorms. S winds 5 to 10 kts, gusts to 20 kts.

Tuesday...VFR under SKC. NW winds around 5 kts.

Wednesday...VFR early, with increasing chance for MVFR/IFR from KHUL northwards into the afternoon as showers and thunderstorms move into the area. SW winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts.

MARINE

Winds and seas will remain below small craft advisory criteria through the weekend under high pressure. Winds increase to at or above 25 kts over the waters from 25-60 NM on Monday as rain moves across the waters with seas rising to around 5 ft, before diminishing Monday night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029- 030. MARINE...None.