textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Temperatures continue to drop, as high level clouds begin to creep in from the west. Adjusted temperatures down to follow observations. Little bit of fog development in the north.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Soaking rain is expected areawide Wednesday night.

2) Strong gusty winds expected with the rain Wednesday night and again during the day Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Soaking rain is expected areawide Wednesday night.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A broad low pressure system in northern Canada will bring a strong warm front through Maine Wednesday night, with the associated cold front quickly exiting the region late Wednesday night. Anticipating rainfall to move in from the west Wednesday night, becoming area wide and moderate after midnight. Cannot fully rule out am embedded thunderstorm, but not anticipating severe weather given very marginal instability.

As of this update, rainfall totals should reach between 0.5 to 0.75 inches throughout the region, with the Downeast region getting the most rain. Localized higher totals are possible with heavier convection that develops overnight. Flooding is not a concern with this system, but rain amounts should give some relief to the drought. As the system exits on Thursday, some wrap around moisture from the system could bring some isolated showers through the north.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Strong gusty winds expected with the rain Wednesday night and again during the day Thursday and Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... As mentioned above, strong low pressure system passes to the north of the forecast area, with strong winds aloft. This will bring strong gusts late Wednesday night in the Downeast region, and again during the day Thursday from the west, and again from the west during the day Friday. The winds aloft will be the strongest Wednesday night, with up to about 55-60 kt at 850mb, but there will be lower surface gusts due to stable surface layer. More realistically, we are looking at gusts as high as about 30 mph from the south Wednesday night, with gusts potentially up to 35 mph. Low level jet develops Wednesday night, bringing strong gusts over the waters. Gusts around 35 mph from the west appear likely Thursday, and with wet soils after Wednesday night's rain, plus leaves on the trees, there could be very isolated tree damage/power outages. Wind gusts gradually relax Thursday evening, but pick back up on Friday with gusts up to 35 mph again possible, mainly over the north.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Today...VFR. Winds light and variable this morning, becoming S 5 to 10 kts today, with gusts up to 20 possible.

Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR, with localized LIFR, in rain. S/SW winds 10-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. LLWS expected at all terminals.

Thursday...Mainly VFR, with a chance of MVFR north in rain showers. Windy with W winds 15-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts.

Thursday Night and Friday...VFR with W winds 10-20 kts, gusting 25-30 kts during the day Friday. Can't rule out intermittent MVFR from HUL north, but VFR is the most likely conditions.

Friday Night and Saturday...VFR with light winds.

Saturday Night and Sunday...VFR with S winds 5-15 kts during the day Sunday. Possible MVFR late Sunday.

MARINE

Winds increase Wednesday night, reaching SCA gusts for intercoastal and coastal waters. Gale Watch in effect for outer waters, as winds increase to Gale force after midnight. Seas peak in the range of 5-9 ft late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, and then gradually subside. Winds SE today, becoming SW Thursday. Rain and chance for thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday. Winds gradually shift to the NW for Friday and become variable and light Saturday. Winds become S on Sunday and could increase to around 20 kts.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MEZ001-002-004. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ050>052. Gale Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for ANZ080-081.