textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the intra-coastal and coastal waters from this evening into Wednesday.

- Have issued a Gale Watch for the outermost waters tonight.

- Increasing chance of wintry precipitation Friday/Friday night, especially for northern areas.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Significant precipitation is expected Tuesday and Tuesday night, with light wintry precipitation possible over north/northwest areas early Tuesday. The wintry precipitation is not expected to impact travel, and flooding is not expected.

2) Light rain possible Downeast early today. Showers will then accompany a cold front crossing the region today.

3) Widespread rain is likely again Friday/Friday night. Chance of accumulating wintry precipitation for northern areas.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Significant precipitation is expected Tuesday and Tuesday night, with light wintry precipitation possible over north/northwest areas early Tuesday. The wintry precipitation is not expected to impact travel, and flooding is not expected.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure across the Great Lakes will draw a warm front toward the region tonight through early Tuesday. Overrunning precipitation in advance of the warm front will begin to develop across the region later tonight then expand across the region Tuesday. Precipitation will generally be in the form of rain. However, dependent on the onset time, just enough cold air could exist across northern areas and the west-central highlands to also support an interval of light snow or sleet later Monday night into Tuesday morning. Little, or no, snow or sleet accumulation is expected except possibly across higher elevation areas. The low approaches Tuesday, then crosses the region Tuesday night with rain which could persist into early Wednesday. Rain totals Tuesday into Wednesday will generally range from around three quarters of an inch to one and a quarter inches.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Light rain possible Downeast early today. Showers will then accompany a cold front crossing the region today.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Light rain is possible Downeast this morning. Showers will then accompany a cold front crossing the region today.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread rain is likely again Friday/Friday night. Chance of accumulating wintry precipitation for northern areas.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... An active weather pattern will remain, with another low pressure system passing through the area from west to east around Friday/Friday night. This is still a lot of uncertainty, but it does appear very likely most places will get at least 0.25 inches of precipitation, with some places exceeding 0.50 inches. Gusty winds and wintry precipitation are both possibilities depending on the track of the system, with chances of both increasing this forecast cycle. Wind gusts of at least 30 mph are possible. Accumulating snowfall chances are increasing, especially for the North Woods area. Ensembles and deterministic guidance has started picking up on the chances of wintry precipitation in the area.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Today...Across northern areas, VFR/MVFR occasional IFR with showers. Across Downeast areas, MVFR/IFR occasional LIFR this morning with light rain. VFR/MVFR this afternoon with scattered showers. Southwest/west winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northwest/north 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots. Westerly low level wind shear across northern areas early.

Tonight...VFR early. VFR/MVFR late with a chance of light rain. Rain possibly mixed with light snow or sleet north late. North/northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming east/northeast 5 to 10 knots.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR early, lowering to MVFR/IFR occasional LIFR. Rain developing. Rain possibly mixed with light snow and sleet across northern ares during the morning. East/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east/southeast.

Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Rain. Rain possibly mixed snow across northern areas. East winds 5-10 knots for northern terminals with gusts to 20 knots. For KBHB and KBGR, winds 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots will start east, turning counterclockwise to be northwest.

Wednesday...MVFR/VFR with isolated to scattered showers mainly northern terminals. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Wednesday night through Thursday...VFR. Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 to 30 knots.

Thursday night...VFR. Light and variable winds.

Friday...MVFR/IFR possible in rain, and possibly wintry precipitation in the north. Windy conditions possible, but high uncertainty in speed/direction.

MARINE

Have issued a Small Craft Advisory for the intra-coastal and coastal waters from this evening into Wednesday. Have also issued a Gale Watch for the outermost waters tonight. A chance of rain this morning. Rain Tuesday into Wednesday.

Small craft advisory conditions then expected Monday night into Wednesday night. Gale force wind gusts possible on the outermost waters Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Rain tonight into Monday, then again Tuesday into Wednesday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ052. Gale Watch from this evening through late tonight for ANZ080- 081.