textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 550AM Update: Cancelled the Gale Warning over the waters and issued a Small Craft Advisory for all waters until tonight

- Added flurries for tonight

KEY MESSAGES

1) Flurries in the north and cold temperatures tonight.

2) A chance of light snow or snow showers across mostly northern areas Thursday into Friday. Gradually moderating temperatures Thursday through Sunday.

3) A more significant system could impact the region Sunday into Monday dependent on the eventual track.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Flurries in the north and cold temperatures tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Remaining snow showers will gradually reduce throughout the day today. The upper level trof will continue to move through the area tonight as a surface ridge exits to the E. The 925mb model temps still show the arctic airmass over the region with temps as low as -18C. This will push temps into the single digits below zero for tonight. In addition, the mid level vort max will push moisture into the region, which will produce light snow in the north.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A chance of light snow or snow showers across mostly northern areas Thursday into Friday. Gradually moderating temperatures Thursday through Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Persistent low pressure in the vicinity of Labrador will begin to wrap modified maritime air back toward the forecast area from the northeast Thursday. Models indicate isentropic lift with warm advection and weak lift moving toward northern Maine from the Maritimes Thursday. The weak lift could support snow showers, or possibly even a steadier light snow, across mostly northern portions of the forecast area Thursday. Weak warm advection and lift could persist Thursday night into Friday, again impacting mostly northern areas. Current indications only support minor possible accumulations across northern areas Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will gradually moderate across the region Thursday into Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A more significant system could impact the region Sunday into Monday dependent on the eventual track.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Models indicate intensifying low pressure developing along the southeast coast and tracking toward the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday. Current indications then have the intensifying low tracking northeast toward Nova Scotia Sunday into Monday. However, uncertainty with the exact track still exists. The northern edge of the precipitation shield with this system could impact the region Sunday into Monday. Precipitation with this system should be in the form of snow. The northern extent of snow and potential snow totals with this system will be dependent on the eventual track of the low.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

MVFR cigs IFR vsby in snow for all terminals early this morning.

Today and tonight...VFR with brief MVFR cigs for all terminals. NW winds 5-10 kts today, then light and variable tonight.

Wednesday...VFR. NW winds 5-15 kts.

Wednesday night...VFR. West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday through Friday...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR/LIFR, north with a chance of snow showers or light snow. Generally VFR Downeast. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Thursday. West winds 5 to 10 knots Thursday night. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Friday.

Friday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers north. VFR Downeast. West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday...VFR. West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

MARINE

Winds taper off through the day today. Seas 6 to 10 ft. Moderate freezing spray threat returns overnight across all waters, tapering off to light freezing spray this afternoon. NW winds gusting 20 to 25 kts tonight, and possible moderate freezing spray returning late tonight. Small Craft Advisory conditions possible Wednesday

Small craft advisory conditions expected Wednesday night into Friday night. Light freezing spray Wednesday night into Thursday. Moderate freezing spray Thursday night into Friday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ050>052. Freezing Spray Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050>052.