textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

-Updated aviation section to reflect 00Z TAFs

Previous - Warmer temperatures possible on Saturday in any clearing before the next rain system

- Decrease in precip chances in the north on Sunday with southern shift in low pressure track

KEY MESSAGES

1) Significant rainfall is possible tonight into Friday, which should be beneficial for the ongoing groundwater drought.

2) Unsettled weather continues through the weekend with several rounds of wetting rain.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Significant rainfall is possible tonight into Friday, which should be beneficial for the ongoing groundwater drought.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Sfc low located to the north of Montreal with front dropping south into western New England. SFc warm front has lifted thru the CWA with temps in the mid 50s over the northeast with some sun still peaking through and this area remaining free of rain thus far. Expect that to change over the next several hours as rain continues to lift north and east.

by 00z this evening, bulk of the rain will be falling to the north and east of the Bangor Region. Latest guidance, including hires, hinting at secondary low development along the Downeast coast around 00z tonight. Depending on where this develops, and right now it appears to be just west of MDI will determine where low level jet brings the potential for heaviest rainfall along with an isolated storm possible. At this time we are expecting an additional 0.75- 0.85 inches of rain over sern zones, with 0.50-0.75 inches elsewhere through tomorrow morning.

For Friday expect that wrap-around showers will be continue across the north with clearing skies moving into swrn zones by afternoon. This will allow temps to warm near normal in the south and below normal across the north. Skies will clear Friday night with temps dipping into the 20s in the North Woods with low around frzg remainder of the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather continues through the weekend with several rounds of wetting rain.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A persistent closed upper level low will continue to usher shortwaves through New England this weekend into early next week. The lingering instability will support continued rain shower chances. A brief dry period is likely on Saturday, though some diurnally driven convection in the afternoon could result in a few light rain showers late in the day. A larger closed low should move south of the Gulf of Maine on Sunday, but still bring rain across the south.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Tonight...MVFR/IFR in low ceilings, LIFR/VLIFR possible KBGR/KBHB. Light S to SE wind. LLWS possible through midnight at the Aroostook terminals.

Friday...MVFR or lower possible in the morning, especially north, improving to MVFR/VFR in the afternoon. W to NW wind 5 to 10 kt.

Friday night...Mainly VFR. WNW 5kts.

Saturday - Saturday night...VFR. Slight chance for rain showers Saturday afternoon. SW winds 5 to 10 kts becoming light and variable overnight.

Sunday - Sunday night...VFR/MVFR cigs with a chance for rain, particularly at BHB/BGR. NW winds 5 to 10 kts shifting W overnight.

Monday - Tuesday...VFR across all terminals, with cigs potentially decreasing to MVFR from west to east as rain showers enter the area. SW winds 5 to 10 kts. Gusts increasing to 25 to 30 kts by Tuesday afternoon.

MARINE

Small craft conditions expected intracoastal out to 25nm through this evening. Seas diminish over the intracoastal zone around midnight, before gradually diminishing for the ocean waters by Friday morning. ANZ051 may need to be extended into Friday afternoon as wave heights drop from east to west.

Conditions will remain below advisory levels through the weekend and into early next week with gusts below 25 kts and seas 2 to 4 ft. Conditions will begin to deteriorate once more into the day on Monday with seas approaching 4 to 6 ft and wind gusts approaching gales on the outer waters beyond 25 nm, and gusts over small craft advisory levels for the coastal waters.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ052.