textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

-Increased chance for thunder Tuesday over northern Maine ahead of a cold front

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers today. Rain tonight through Sunday mostly across Downeast and eastern portions of the region.

2) Potential for another soaking rain event mid to late next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers today. Rain tonight through Sunday mostly across Downeast and eastern portions of the region.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... An upper level low will remain across Quebec province today. A disturbance rotating around the low will bring scattered to numerous showers to the region today mostly from late morning through the afternoon. An intensifying ocean low will track south of the Gulf of Maine and east of Nova Scotia tonight through Sunday. A Norlun style trof will extend northward from the low across Downeast and eastern portions of the forecast area supporting an area of rain. Rain will expand northward tonight then persist Sunday across mostly Downeast and eastern portions of the forecast area. Rain totals with this system are still uncertain. However, indications are that the greater rain totals should occur along the Downeast coast and into Washington county where amounts up to around an inch are possible. Rain totals will diminish northward across the remainder of the eastern portion of the forecast area. The least rain with this event is expected across northwest portions of the forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Potential for another soaking rain event mid to late next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A cold front approaches the area late Tuesday with some showers initially developing over northern Maine. Some thunder is also possible too, but models do not show much instability so thinking there may only be a rumble of thunder or two. Any convection though could produce some locally heavier rainfall. The front will be slow to cross the area Tuesday night into Thursday which will help boost rainfall totals. A number of ensemble members are also showing the possibility of another low pressure system developing along boundary and passing in close proximity to the region. If this is indeed the case, additional persistent, soaking rainfall is possible which could make a dent in the drought for the area. Currently, the NBM shows a 40-60% chance of at least 1 in of rainfall Wednesday through Friday.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Today...Variable conditions in any patchy fog early this morning. Otherwise, VFR this morning. VFR/MVFR this afternoon with scattered to numerous showers. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Tonight...VFR/MVFR early. MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, late with rain developing. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, with rain. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north/northwest 10 to 15 knots.

Sunday night...MVFR cigs northern terminals with a chance for rain early. Mainly VFR southern terminals. NW winds 5 to 10 kts gusting to 15 kts, shifting W overnight.

Monday - Tuesday...VFR across all terminals, with cigs potentially decreasing to MVFR from west to east as rain showers enter the area each day. Greatest chance for MVFR at northern terminals. S/SW winds 10 to 20 kts. Gusts increasing to 25 to 30 kts by Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday...Decreasing conditions to IFR/LIFR in steady rain across all terminals. S winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts.

MARINE

Winds/seas generally below small craft advisory levels today through Sunday. However, a few wind gusts could approach small craft advisory levels Sunday. Isolated showers today. Rain tonight through Sunday.

Above SCA winds and seas on the coastal and intracoastal waters Sunday night through Wednesday. Winds approach gale criteria on the outer waters late Monday into Monday night with a greater, approximately 50%, chance for gales on the coastal and outer waters beginning late Tuesday and continuing through Wednesday. Seas peak at 10 to 12 ft on the coastal and outer waters Tuesday night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.