textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation Discussion for 00z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The next round of rain showers is expected for the end of the week, though drought relief is unlikely.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...The next round of rain showers is expected for the end of the week, though drought relief is unlikely.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure over the mid-Atlantic region results in dry conditions until Friday. Low pressure to the northwest in Canada tracks eastward, bringing a relatively weak cold front over the state Friday into Saturday. Pressure gradient between the high pressure and the approaching low could help produce some breezy southwest winds Thursday afternoon.

Based on global models, PWATs are roughly 1.25-1.75 inches, with higher values concentrated around the central and Downeast regions. Models continue to hint at precipitation generally moving in early Friday from the northwest, and moving to the southeast by Friday night. There is still some model discrepancies in the end timing, however. Global ensembles generally keep precipitation totals between half an inch to an inch. Some members, though, do show a narrow band of enhanced precipitation, upwards of an inch, somewhere located around Central Highlands and Downeast region.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

High confidence in VFR through midnight at northern terminals. At northern terminals, there is increasing uncertainty as to if any fog develops overnight. For now increased visibilities KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL and raised ceilings to VFR. All northern terminals should become VFR by mid Thursday morning, assuming they ever ceased to be VFR overnight. For southern terminals, increasing confidence in IFR or lower conditions developing after midnight, with the best chance at KBHB. Conditions should improve to VFR at southern terminals by around midday on Thursday.

Light and variable winds through sunrise Thursday. Winds then become S-SSW at around/just under 10KT by mid-late morning. Northern terminals could see a few hours of gusts to around 15-20KT in the afternoon.

Thursday night-Friday night...MVFR or lower possible. LLWS possible Thursday night-Friday morning.

Friday night...MVFR or lower possible along/south a KHUL-KGNR line, VFR elsewhere.

Saturday-Sunday...VFR. NW winds G15KT possible Saturday. S winds G15KT possible Sunday.

Sunday night-Monday...MVFR or lower possible.

MARINE

Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight through Friday night for the coastal zones, the outer waters could see gusts to around 25 kt and seas to around 5 ft Thursday night and Friday. Chance for rain Friday into Friday night, which could limit visibility. Coastal-25nm, and 25nm-60nm zones could have seas approach 5 ft late Friday night, with SW winds.

From Saturday into Sunday, N/NW winds over the waters out to 60nm should be 20 kt or less and seas 4 ft or less. Sub-SCA conditions expected on the coastal waters Monday, with gusts to around 25 kt and seas around 5 ft possible on the waters from 25-60nm.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.