textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- A Beach Hazards Statement was issued for Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lower temperatures and less humidity Saturday.

2) Isolated thunderstorms remain possible this evening through Saturday. A conditional threat for severe storms exists.

3) A Beach Hazards Statement was issued for Saturday for cold coastal water temperatures.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Lower temperatures and less humidity Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A cold front will cross the region Saturday with lower temperatures and less humidity in the wake of the front. High temperatures Saturday are expected to range from the upper 70s to lower 80s north. Temperatures Downeast will be dependent on the timing of the front. Temperatures from the upper 80s to around 90 are still possible in advance of the front. Apparent temperatures should remain just below heat advisory levels.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Isolated thunderstorms early tonight and again Saturday. A conditional threat for severe storms exists.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Showers and thunderstorms have worked across much of Aroostook County this evening with quick dumping storms. Radar estimates show up to 1.5 inches of rain based on legacy and Dual-Pol estimates in far northern Aroostook County. Activity should continue to wind down as we move through this evening. Outflow boundaries kicked off by convection in far northeast Aroostook County managed to work their way well south pushing through the Houlton area with winds shifting to the north at 20-25 mph with this feature. This boundary has made it considerably far to the south and thus some areas may see a short-lived spike in wind this evening with little to no shower activity. Additional activity was moving west to east across Northern Maine behind this boundary, though with the loss of heating the stringer activity seems to be winding down.

A cold front crossing the region, along with an upper level disturbance, will support another chance of isolated/scattered afternoon thunderstorms Saturday. Models really pool the highest PWATs along the coast and tank values across the north by the later in the afternoon and also bring in more stability to northern areas by the afternoon so the risk for showers and thunderstorms may end earlier the further north one goes. Coastal/far southern areas show more in the way of CAPE values and negative LIs into the afternoon, so the prospects for thunderstorms may be a little better there. The risk of severe thunderstorms is low.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A Beach Hazards Statement was issued for Saturday for cold coastal water temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... With the July 4th Holiday and crowds heading towards the coast and water and above normal temps continuing, the cold Gulf of Maine/Atlantic Ocean water temps will create a high risk for hypothermia. Use caution if on the water and use a life jacket on any watercraft.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Tonight: SHRA and TSRA around early tonight mainly north of a line from K40B to KHUL with activity winding down between 02z and 04z overall. Gusty and erratic winds possible in and near activity. VSBY and CIGS may lower to MVFR or lower in any heavier SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise, VFR with west winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday: Variable conditions with any afternoon thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots.

Saturday night: VFR. North/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday to Sunday night: VFR. NW winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 15-20 kts Sunday afternoon, otherwise winds will be light.

Monday: VFR. Light winds with a southerly sea breeze developing at coastal terminals in the afternoon.

Monday night to Tuesday: Increasing chance of MVFR or lower conditions in -RA/-SHRA, mainly for KBGR and coastal/Downeast airports. VFR elsewhere. Light and variable winds, becoming south at 5-15 kts Tuesday.

Wednesday: MVFR conditions possible in some scattered showers, otherwise VFR. SW winds at 5-10 kt, gusting to 15 kt.

MARINE

Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight through Saturday night. Patchy fog later tonight into Saturday morning.

Winds and seas below Small Craft Advisory criteria continue Sunday into next week for all waters out to 60NM from the coast. Seas 2 feet or less are expected this weekend into early next week for waters inside 25NM from the coast. Wind gusts will generally be between 5 and 15 kts. Water temperatures remain around 50.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Sunday night for MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032. Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...None.