textproduct: Caribou

SYNOPSIS

High pressure builds in tonight and then moves east Sunday. A weak area of low pressure crosses the region Sunday night and moves east Monday. High pressure builds in Monday night through Tuesday. Low pressure crosses the region Wed and Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Key Messages

-Brief period of light snow possible along the Downeast Coast Sunday night

An upper level trough will cross the region through early this evening. A stray flurry not totally out of the question through late this afternoon. Otherwise, high pressure builds across the region tonight and then moves east on Sunday. Expect mainly clear to partly cloudy skies tonight and a mostly sunny day Sunday. Lows tonight will range from near 20 across the north and the lower to mid 20s for the Bangor region and Downeast. Afternoon highs on Sunday will range from the lower 30s north and the mid to upper 30s for the Bangor region and Downeast coast. A weak short wave and low pressure will approach later Sunday afternoon and cross the region Sunday night. There is little moisture with this system and most of the area will see nothing more than scattered snow showers. There are some higher res guidance solutions that show the potential for a period steadier light snow along the Downeast coast, as the low exits the through the Gulf of Maine, and a trough extends northwest through the Downeast coast. Raised precipitation chances and snow accumulations along the Downeast coast for Sunday night just slightly. Wouldn't be surprised to see a quick inch or two of snow toward Eastport, otherwise not much in the way of accumulation is expected.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Key Messages -No impactful storms this period with near normal temperatures.

A surface ridge should move into the region on Monday and remain through Tuesday. For Monday, any remaining precip will exit the area, while clouds stick around. The south should see clearing in the afternoon, but the north should remain cloudy. This should keep temps in the low 30s in the north and upper 30s in the south. Cannot rule out a possible flurry in the north. For Monday night, clouds are expected to build back into the south and continue in the north. Temps should decrease into the 20s. For Tuesday, the next low pressure system should start to approach the region. The switch to onshore flow is expected to increase temps into the upper 30s to low 40s across the region, even though it will be a cloudy day.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Key Messages -Rain/snow mix Tuesday Night -Rain all Wednesday -Uncertainty on precip types and speed of the low pressure system for Thursday

The approaching low pressure system moves into the area Tuesday night as an occlusion with the triple point moving over the waters. By Wednesday, the triple point should intensify becoming a closed low pressure system. This is expected to be the main system bringing the precip to the region. Tuesday night should bring snow to the north and rain to the south. Precip should become all rain by Wednesday morning. The occlusion begins to develop another triple point and intensify as it moves towards the state. For Wednesday night, temps should remain warm enough to keep rain in the region. By Thanksgiving, the question will be if the dry air in the mid levels will work down to the surface, causing precip to end, or will moisture remain and the cold air behind the frontal boundary changes the precip to snow. The ensembles seem to favor a drier, warmer Thanksgiving, but more certainty will be needed to make that decision.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

NEAR TERM: VFR tonight through Sunday. Light NW wind tonight, becoming SW Sunday.

Outlook for Sunday night...VFR/MVFR, except IFR possible KBHB vicinity in -SN. Light variable wind.

SHORT TERM: Monday...MVFR, becoming VFR over the south. NW wind 5-10 kts.

Monday night...VFR. W wind around 5 kt.

Tuesday...VFR, possibly lowering to MVFR late across the south. SW wind around 5 kt.

Tuesday night...IFR south. MVFR lowering to IFR north. Light S winds.

Wednesday...IFR/LIFR. ESE winds 5-10 kts.

Wed night...MVFR/IFR. Variable winds 5-10 kts.

Thu...VFR/MVFR. W winds 5-10 kts.

MARINE

NEAR TERM: Winds/seas generally below SCA levels through Sun night.

SHORT TERM: A SCA may be needed late Monday into Monday evening for NW winds gusting up to 25 kt. A SCA may be needed again late Wednesday into Thursday for W winds gusting up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft through Tuesday night building to 3 to 4 ft Wednesday into Wednesday night then up to 5 to 6 ft Thanksgiving Day Thursday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.