textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

650am update...Update for 12z aviation discussion

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly over the North.

2) Another round of showers and thunderstorms toward the end of the week. A strong storm or two is possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly over the North.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Lift from upper level shortwave energy should help to drive afternoon shower and thunderstorm development over the North today. Thinking that most convection will be showers as models are showing poor mid-level lapse rates as a result of a mid- level inversion that may stunt convective growth. The bigger question is how far south storms will reach which will depend on the location of forcing.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another round of showers and thunderstorms toward the end of the week. A strong storm or two is possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... An upper level trough digs into ern Canada on Thursday with a surface warm lifting thru the CWA. Showers move in from the west in the afternoon with thunderstorms possible during the afternoon with CAPES between 500-1000 J/kg and 0-6km shear > 30kts. This may bring strong storms to the area.

Weak low pressure moves thru the area at some point, like Thursday night keeping showers in the area. Upper level trough then progged to move thru during the day on Friday, along with the cold pool with another round of storms.

Pwats are pretty meager, ranging from 1-1.50 inches, highest over Downeast so not seeing the potential for heavy rain at this point.

The highest tides of the month will be at week/s end but not expecting anything impactful at this point.

AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Tuesday: Northern Aroostook terminals likely to see VFR/MVFR in showers this morning. Coastal terminals VFR, though may see a brief period of IFR for the next hour or two this morning. Brief MVFR possible in the afternoon at northern terminals due to scattered showers. NW winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts.

Tonight-Wednesday: VFR. Winds W at 5-10 kt.

Wednesday night...Mainly VFR. Light W winds.

Thursday-Friday---MVFR/IFR in showers and storms. SW winds 5-15kts, becoming NW 5-15kts on Friday with gusts 20-25kts in the afternoon.

Friday night-Saturday...VFR. NW winds 10-20kts.

MARINE

Winds and seas below small craft advisory criteria through Wednesday on all waters. Seas 3 ft or less with wind gusts 15 kts or less.

Winds remain aob 25kts Wednesday night through Friday before increasing in CAA Friday night. Waters from 25-60NM will see gusts over 25kts on Friday night before diminishing as high pressure builds in. Seas remain between 1-3 feet into Thursday night before building toward 5ft Friday night over waters from 25-60NM.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.