textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Minor adjustments to POPs/thunder this afternoon to follow radar and hi-res CAMs trends.

- Lowered temperatures in the North Woods tonight to mid to upper 30s in the colder valleys where decoupling is expected. Possible patchy frost near Estcourt Station only.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A front will drop through the forecast area this afternoon, bringing rain showers and isolated thunderstorms to the region.

2) System brings round of rain showers mid-to-late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A front will drop through the forecast area this afternoon, bringing rain showers and isolated thunderstorms to the region.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A cold front will cross the forecast area late this afternoon. Showers are developing across the CWA in a few different areas but have not gotten tall enough to produce lightning. A few areas of thunderstorms are in Quebec and will pivot SE into Maine over the next 1-2hrs. Though 0-6 km shear is quite high, approaching 40-50 kt, CAPE is on the lower end, around 300 J/kg from the 18z CAR Upper Air Sounding. RAP modeling suggesting up to 500 J/kg ahead of the cold front. There will not be any deep layer of moisture to work with. 18z sounding from CAR shows a very dry and warmer mid level layer that is limiting storms from developing tall enough. However, expecting storms to get tall enough to produce lightning. 18z CAR upper air does show a well mixed boundary layer (inverted V signature) up to 780mb. Lines of training storms could develop along the front and prefrontal boundaries themselves as they cross the area, and this would be the best chance at any stronger organization for enhanced threats, but even then, at most it appears maybe some gusty winds with these storms based on the lack of extensive severe parameters being met at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 2...System brings round of rain showers mid-to-late week.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... High pressure over northern New England early week, as a low pressure moves eastward through Canada. Chance for some stray showers moving into the Central Highlands and Bangor regions on Tuesday, as some models hint at a disturbance developing off of the aforementioned parent low in Canada.

For rain mid-to-late week, global models are trending towards the low pressure system moving through Maine Wednesday night into Thursday. The disagreement between models is currently in a surface low that develops off of the parent low in Canada. The GFS has a surface low develop on Thursday, and staying out in the Atlantic. The 00-06z ECMWF, however, has a surface low develop much earlier on Tuesday, over the Gulf of Maine, and slowly move out to sea through the week. With either solution, anticipating highest rain totals along the Downeast region. Confidence in timing, severe potential, and rain amounts, will begin to improve once models get a better handle on the environment for next week.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Rest of Today...VFR, occasional IFR, into early evening with showers and thunderstorms. W to WSW winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts, shifting NW behind a cold front late.

Tonight...VFR with a chance of rain showers. VFR turning SKC late. NW winds 5 to 10 kts.

Monday...VFR. NW winds at 5 to 10 knots.

Monday night...VFR. Chance for some valley fog. Light and variable winds.

Tuesday...VFR. Light and variable winds.

Tuesday night...VFR at northern terminals, and slight chance for MVFR at KBGR/KBHB in rain showers. Light and variable winds overnight.

Wednesday - Friday...MVFR/IFR in potential rain showers. SE winds Wednesday - Thursday at 5-10 kts shifts N on Friday.

MARINE

Winds/seas below SCA levels tonight through early next week. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Slight chance for rain showers Tuesday, and chance of rain Wednesday night into Thursday. Winds W/SW Monday night, becoming SE Tuesday, and E/NE Wednesday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029- 030. MARINE...None.