textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

-Added in some higher PoPs for today based on light snow showers along the coast and eastern Maine.

-Dropped temperatures down Thursday night to account for clear skies and potential for radiational cooling.

-Based on the most recent guidance the risk of significant snow this weekend has has significantly diminished.

KEY MESSAGES

- Arctic cold front crosses the region Saturday with dangerous wind chills Saturday night into Sunday. Below normal level temperatures persist into Monday.

- Chance for some light snow showers throughout the area Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Arctic cold front crosses the region Saturday with dangerous wind chills Saturday night into Sunday. Below normal level temperatures persist into Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... An Arctic cold front will cross the region Saturday with falling temperatures in the wake of the front. At the same time, an ocean low will intensify well south of the Gulf of Maine. The pressure gradient between Arctic high pressure crossing the Great Lakes and the intensifying ocean low will support gusty winds across the region Saturday night into Sunday. The combination of gusty winds and Arctic air will produce dangerous wind chills Saturday night into Sunday. The gusty winds could also support patchy blowing snow across the favored open agricultural areas of northern Maine Saturday night through Sunday. Snow showers, along with possible isolated snow squalls, could accompany the Arctic front Saturday. The most recent guidance indicates that the threat of significant snow this weekend has significantly diminished. Below normal level temperatures will persist Monday, then return to near normal levels Tuesday into Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Chance for some light snow showers throughout the area Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...Shortwave moves through Thursday, bringing instability and lift through northern and eastern Maine. There is a potential for some light snow showers, mainly across the north, Thursday morning into the afternoon. Light accumulations expected, generally around a quarter of an inch. Northwesterly winds on Thursday could bring some additional moisture from the St. Lawrence, resulting in some additional showers to the Crown of Maine. There is also a potential for some radiational cooling Thursday night as skies clear out, due to ridging building in behind shortwave trough. Overnight lows drop into the -15 to -10 range in the north, -5 to 0 range in the Central Highlands and Downeast regions, and single digits along the coast.

AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

This evening - Tonight...Generally VFR at all terminals. Light winds from the NW, becoming variable overnight. Slight chance for some brief light snow showers at terminals, through this evening. Cloud ceilings drop to low VFR/MVFR by Thursday morning.

Thursday - Thursday night... Generally MVFR in the north, with potential for snow showers in the north. Generally VFR at southern terminals. NW winds at 5-10 kts, with gusts to 15kts possible.

Friday...VFR. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Friday night...VFR early. VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of snow showers late. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday...Variable conditions with any snow showers or isolated snow squalls. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR. North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north/northwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots.

Saturday night...VFR/MVFR. A slight chance of snow showers. North/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR north. VFR Downeast. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots.

Sunday night through Monday...VFR. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots Sunday night. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Monday.

MARINE

Small Craft Advisory conditions over the outer waters this evening into tonight. Seas around 3-4 ft. Snow showers possible this evening. Light freezing spray tonight, and again on Thursday night. NW winds tonight into Thursday, shifting to the N by Thursday night.

Small craft advisory conditions develop Saturday. Gale conditions are then expected Saturday night into Sunday night. Light freezing spray early Friday. Moderate/heavy freezing spray Saturday night into Sunday. Moderate freezing spray Sunday night into Monday. A chance of snow showers Saturday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ050- 051.