textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Have upgraded the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning, for the Waters from Eastport ME to Schoodic Point ME from 25 to 60 NM or the Hague Line, 8PM this evening till 5AM Tuesday.

- Increased the amount of potential snow mixing in across the North Woods and Moosehead Region tomorrow morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Significant precipitation is expected Tuesday and Tuesday night, with light wintry precipitation possible over Moosehead and North Woods areas early Tuesday. The wintry precipitation is not expected to impact travel, and flooding is not expected.

2) Widespread rain is likely again Friday/Friday night. Chance of accumulating wintry precipitation for northern areas.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Significant precipitation is expected Tuesday and Tuesday night, with light wintry precipitation possible over Moosehead and North Woods areas early Tuesday. The wintry precipitation is not expected to impact travel, and flooding is not expected.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure across the Great Lakes will draw a warm front toward the region tonight through early tomorrow. Overrunning precipitation in advance of the warm front will begin to develop across the region later tonight then expand across the region Tuesday. Precipitation will generally be in the form of rain. However, dependent on the onset time, just enough cold air could exist across northern areas and the west-central highlands to also support an interval of light snow or sleet early Tuesday morning. Little, or no, snow or sleet accumulation is expected except possibly across higher elevation areas of Moosehead and North Woods. To the east dry air in the boundary layer is going to slow the onset of precipitation with a ton of Virga occurring. The low approaches Tuesday, then crosses the region Tuesday night with rain which could persist into early Wednesday. Rain totals Tuesday into Wednesday will max out generally 0.75-1.25 inches for much of the CWA with only 0.4-0.6 inch across the St. John Valley.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread rain is likely again Friday/Friday night. Chance of accumulating wintry precipitation for northern areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... An active weather pattern will remain, with another low pressure system passing through the area from west to east around Friday afternoon into Saturday. This is still a lot of uncertainty, but it does appear very likely most places will get at least 0.5 inch of precipitation, with some places exceeding 0.5 inch. Gusty winds and wintry precipitation are both possibilities depending on the track of the system, with chances of both increasing this forecast cycle. Wind gusts of at least 30 mph are possible with increasing possibility of higher gusts. Accumulating snowfall chances are increasing, especially for the North Woods, Moosehead and Western St. John Valley areas along with the higher terrain of Route 11. Ensembles and deterministic guidance are strongly signaling the chances of wintry precipitation in the area but timing is all over the place. Timing will be important as nighttime has the highest potential of wintry precip.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Rest of Today...Mainly MVFR in rain. N winds 5-15 kts.

Tonight...MVFR cigs/vsby improving to VFR before midnight as the rain exits the region. Light NE winds.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR early, lowering to MVFR/IFR occasional LIFR. Rain developing. Rain possibly mixed with light snow and sleet across northern ares during the morning. East/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming east/southeast.

Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Rain. Rain possibly mixed snow across northern areas. East winds 5-10 knots for northern terminals with gusts to 20 knots. For KBHB and KBGR, winds 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots will start east, turning counterclockwise to be northwest.

Wednesday...MVFR/VFR with isolated to scattered showers mainly northern terminals. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Wednesday night through Thursday...VFR. Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 to 30 knots.

Thursday night...VFR. Light and variable winds.

Friday - Saturday...MVFR/IFR possible in rain, and possibly wintry precipitation in the north. Strong gusty winds possible, but high uncertainty in speed/direction.

MARINE

Low pressure will deepen south of the waters tonight as a front crosses. Expect winds/seas to rapidly increase this evening. Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 6PM this evening till 8PM Wednesday for the Coastal Waters out 25nm. E winds 15-25kt with gusts up to 30kt and seas 6-9ft. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 8PM this evening till 2PM Wednesday for the Intra- Coastal Waters. E winds 10-20kt with gusts up to 30kt and seas 3-6ft expected. New with this update a Gale Warning is in effect from 8PM this evening till 5AM Tuesday for the Waters from Eastport to Schoodic Point from 25 to 60 NM or the Hague Line. NE winds 15-25kt with gusts up to 35kt and seas 6-8ft expected. Winds will fall below Gales in the AM Tuesday but a brief period of gusts to 35kt returns Tue eve especially in the waters closer to the Hague Line.

Wed night the winds and seas fall below SCA criteria (<25kt or 5ft) for much of the waters. However, after midnight expecting winds to rapidly increase back to SCA levels for Thurs into early Thurs eve. Thurs night into Friday AM expecting below SCA conditions again then rapidly back to SCA and possible Gale conditions Fri night into Sat. Low possibility of Storm conditions on the 25-60nm waters on Sat.

In terms of weather/vsby expecting rain and fog to lower vsby Tue into Wed then again Fri into the weekend.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ052. Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ080-081.