textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- No significant changes since the previous forecast

KEY MESSAGES

1) Generally dry weather today through late this week.

2) Nor'easter could potentially cause minor beach erosion to the coast from Tuesday night into possibly Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Generally dry weather today through late this week.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Clear skies persist into the overnight hours tonight, followed by a weak cold front crossing the forecast area late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Though some clouds may be associated with the front, the region is expected to remain dry with this feature, with the most notable change being a northerly shift in wind direction by daybreak. Some patchy fog is possible, but should any develop, it will most likely do so in more sheltered river valleys where winds remain calm through the early morning hours.

Mixing heights may increase to around 900 mb by Tuesday afternoon, allowing for the boundary layer to dry out and relative humidity to drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s. For Tuesday night, a return of fog could be in the cards, but current NAM forecast profiles suggest that if anything it will be more of a low stratus deck, most likely obscuring skies in the North Woods but potentially throughout the Crown of Maine into early Wednesday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Nor'easter could potentially cause minor beach erosion to the coast from Tuesday night into possibly Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A cutoff low off the Mid Atlantic Coast Wednesday morning lifts northeast through Thursday morning, then either continues northeast into The Maritimes or heads eastward Friday.

Ensemble guidance generally keeps the storm well offshore but a few solutions bring it further north towards our area. If the stronger more northern solutions for this Nor'easter are correct, then there could be some minor beach erosion along portions of the Downeast coast around the time of high tide from Tuesday night into at least Thursday. While predicted water levels will remain below coastal flood benchmarks, there could be sufficient wave setup/runup over multiple high tide cycles to cause some minor beach erosion at more vulnerable locations along the coasts of Hancock and Washington County. With the vast majority of solutions with the Nor'easter not favoring a stronger and more northward track at this time, the current chance for even minor beach erosion with this system is very low, at 10-20%.

AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

This evening - Tonight...VFR. Patchy river valley fog possible late tonight. S to SW winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts will decrease overnight, becoming light and variable. LLWS possible around BGR/BHB with front passage shortly before 12z.

Tuesday...VFR. N to NW winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 20 kts.

Tuesday night...Decreasing cigs towards MVFR/IFR possible from KPQI northwards overnight. Otherwise, VFR. N winds becoming light and variable from KMLT/KHUL north, NE winds decreasing to around 5 kts for KBGR through coastal terminals.

Wednesday-Wednesday night: With the possible exception of a low chance of MVFR or lower in patchy fog late Wednesday night, it should be VFR. NE winds 5 to 10 kts Wednesday, becoming light and variable overnight.

Thursday: High confidence in VFR at northern terminals and KBGR. Downeast terminals most likely will be VFR, however there is a very low chance of MVFR or lower conditions, with the best chance near the immediate coast. N/NW winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts.

Thursday night-Friday: VFR. N/NW winds 15 to 20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts.

Friday night-Saturday: VFR. W winds 5 to 10 kts.

MARINE

Winds/seas below SCA criteria through tonight. Seas will begin to build early Tuesday morning along with increasing winds. SCA wind gusts over over waters begin Tuesday morning, as seas rise to 4 to 6 ft over coastal waters. Outer waters will see seas 6 to 8 ft on Tuesday.

SCA conditions expected to continue Tuesday night for the coastal ocean waters, and an SCA remains in effect for this area through 10Z Wednesday. There is also a very low chance for gusts to gale force on the outer waters and a very low chance for SCA conditions on the intra-coastal waters Tuesday night.

Winds and seas decrease below SCA criteria late Wednesday and remain below criteria through Thursday. SCA conditions on the coastal and intracoastal waters Thursday night into Friday with a 50% chance of gales on the outer waters. Seas peak at 4 to 6 ft on the coastal waters and 6 to 8 ft on the outer waters early Friday. Below SCA conditions on the coastal and intracoastal waters Friday night into Saturday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051.