textproduct: Caribou

SYNOPSIS

A warm front crosses early this evening, followed by a cold front late tonight. A secondary cold front crosses the area on Monday, followed by high pressure building in Monday night. A coastal low approaches from the southwest on Tuesday, passes offshore Tuesday night, then exits into the southern Canadian Maritimes on Wednesday. A cold front then moves in Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Update... Latest radar reflectivity data shows mainly light precipitation across much of the forecast area at this hour. To the north of a Greenville to Millinocket to Houlton line it was mainly in the form of snow, with rain to the south of there. Snowfall report as of this time indicate generally 1 to 2 inches of snow has fallen across northern areas. Could see up to an additional half to one inch before precipitation diminishes prior to midnight. The current forecast remains on track so no significant changes were made at this time.

See updated aviation discussion.

previous discussion Precipitation has started ahead of the warm front expected to cross the area later this evening. At the moment, mostly snow is falling across the region, with some sleet mixed in along the coast. There will be a rapid transition to snow/rain mix and then to all rain along the coast this afternoon, with a slightly slower transition to a mix northward through eastern Aroostook County. Overall accumulations will be greatest over the western mountains, but even there less than 4" of snowfall is expected. Eastward, 1 to 3" of snow is expected over the Rte 1/Rte 11 corridor. This will be lessened by the period of rainfall mixing in later tonight.

Precipitation will end around midnight for all areas, with a cold front expected to move through tomorrow morning. Some concerns were raised for the potential of snow squalls with this front, however the early morning timeframe is not conducive for peak convective activity and the lowering amounts of QPF expected with the front indicate that snow will be brief and not as heavy as expected. Would not rule out a squall or two but this should not be a widespread concern for tomorrow.

Colder air will follow behind the front and lows Monday night will reach the single digits across northern Maine for the first time this season.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Key messages -Noreaster may bring warning snowfall to interior Downeast and the coast -Cold temps Tuesday Night with wind chills near zero degrees

H5 trof will be moving east of the MS Vly Tuesday morning. Dry air with the sfc ridge axis will remain over the CWA into the morning hours. Upr system is currently crossing the intermountain west at this time with a nor'easter looming early in the week. Latest 12z guidance has shifted just slightly south with the developing noreaster on Tuesday night, with the center moving just south of Nova Scotia. Given this track, the best area for higher snow totals likely to be south of a Danforth to Dover-Foxcroft line Tuesday and Tuesday night. Cannot rule out some snow banding over interior Downeast as the low wraps up. However, 12z EC has continued to stick with the furthest south solution.

Snow exits the area Wednesday morning as low exits into the Maritimes. Gusty north winds on the backside of the system will funnel in cold air with temps dipping into the single digits acrs the northwest. Wind chills will approach zero degrees Wednesday morning. Ridge axis crests over the CWA on Wednesday with partly to mostly sunny skies expected. Highs will run around 10 degrees blo seasonal norms on Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Key messages -Snow squalls possible on Thursday -Very cold temps Thursday night with wind chills below -20F

Arctic cold front Wednesday evening will be draped from wrn Quebec thru the Great Lakes. Front moves thru Thursday afternoon with snow squalls possible, with steep low-level lapse rates and 25-30kt low level jet behind front. Low temps likely to be below zero across the north as H8 mb temps drop toward -25C. Winds remain well-mixed, resulting in wind chill temps down below -20F late Thursday night. Brief high pressure will build in Friday night with guidance diverging on track of next lopres.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

NEAR TERM: Low level wind shear is expected through 04z. Widespread MVFR/IFR expected at all the terminals through 06z then becoming mainly MVFR after that. Gusty S to SE wind 10 to 20 kt becoming SW after midnight.

Monday should be mostly VFR HUL, BGR, and BHB, but MVFR at times mainly in the morning for PQI, CAR, FVE. NW winds increasing to around 15 gusting 25 kts.

SHORT TERM: Tuesday-Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR in snow. S 5-10kts becoming NNE 5-15kts Tuesday evening, gusts to 20kts south.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...Mainly VFR. NNW 5-10kts becoming SSW 5-10kts Wednesday evening.

Thursday...MVFR/IFR tempo LIFR in snow showers. SSW 5-15kts, gusting to 20-25kts.

Thursday night-Friday...Mainly VFR, though MVFR possible north. W 5-15kts, gusts to 20kts.

MARINE

NEAR TERM: Very high confidence in southerly gales into this evening. Winds switch to westerly late tonight and remain W/NW into Monday. As the switch happens, winds ease a bit, and will be borderline gale/small craft. Seas build close to 11 ft late tonight then ease to around 6 ft later Monday.

SHORT TERM: Gales possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winds increase toward SCA levels Wednesday night with gales once again behind cold front on Thursday. Winds diminish late on Friday. Seas increase above 5ft Wednesday morning, remaining elevated through Friday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for MEZ011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...Gale Warning until 4 PM EST Monday for ANZ050>052.