textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Confidence has slightly increased in the weekend systems.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Chance for patchy freezing drizzle from northern Downeast up across east central areas this evening which may result in some isolated icy road surfaces.

2) Chance of snow Late Friday/Early Saturday, mainly Downeast. Hazardous travel possible if snow occurs.

3) Chance of snow Sunday into Monday, making for hazardous travel if the system occurs.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Chance for patchy freezing drizzle from northern Downeast up across east central areas this evening which may result in some icy road surfaces.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A stagnant airmass and low level inversion have allowed moisture to accumulate in the low levels. This has resulted in moist soundings, especially in the low levels. A very weak occlusion will cross the area late today into this evening possibly producing some light snow across the north. Once any light snow tapers off, residual low level moisture and saturated soundings below 10K ft may support some isolated supercooled drizzle across the area, mainly from Downeast up across east central areas. This could result in patchy light accumulations of ice and some icy road surfaces. An increasing northwesterly gradient late tonight should begin to mix out the low level moisture allowing any freezing drizzle to taper off and the air to gradually dry.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Chance of snow Late Friday/Early Saturday, mainly Downeast. Hazardous travel possible if snow occurs.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A vertically stacked occluding low pressure system will move across New England Friday night. The models disagree with the timing of the snow moving into the region. GFS shows a much quicker progression than the Euro and CmC. Models indicate that the triple point will intensify by Saturday morning and move south of the Gulf of Maine. The weakening occlusion will bring light snow into the area. The question will be how long the snow will last. As of this update, the NBM has the snow ending Saturday night.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Chance of snow Sunday into Monday, making for hazardous travel if the system occurs.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Per the previous discussion: The next potential system after late Friday/early Saturday comes Sunday into Monday. There is a lot of forecast uncertainty this far out on whether there will even be a system in the region, but a minority of models/ensembles (about 30 percent) do have a rather strong Nor'easter impacting the state.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Today...VFR early this morning with patchy MVFR Downeast and LIFR over some northern sites. All sites dropping to MVFR/IFR around mid morning then IFR late morning into this afternoon. Winds S around 5 kt.

Tonight...IFR to LIFR. Chance for spotty light freezing drizzle central and north. SW wind around 5 kt.

Wednesday...MVFR improving to VFR. NW wind around 10 kt gusting to 15 kt.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR, with possible AM MVFR in the north. NW wind 5-10 kts.

Wednesday Night through Thursday Night...Mainly VFR. NW wind 5-15 kts.

Friday through Saturday...Low confidence. Most likely VFR in the north. Downeast, including BHB/BGR, could be IFR in snow if the system tracks north (about a 30 percent chance of IFR or lower), or could be VFR if the system misses to the south (about 50 percent chance of staying VFR). N wind 5-10 kts.

MARINE

Conditions are expected to remain below SCA today, tonight and Wednesday. NW winds will gust up to 20 kt late tonight into Wednesday morning with seas up to 4 ft.

Small craft northerly winds Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Small craft northeast winds then likely Friday night and Saturday. Seas 2-5 ft. Light freezing spray possible from time to time.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.