textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 7:31PM UPDATE...Aviation update see the aviation section below.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread rain showers this weekend with possible thunderstorms each afternoon.

2) Strong upper level ridging moves in Monday and lasts at least into the end of next week, bringing hot temperatures of 10-15 degrees above average.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread rain showers this weekend with possible thunderstorms each afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Any showers and storms that develop early this evening will taper off overnight tonight. Another round of showers and storms will develop late Saturday morning within the warm sector of an approaching open wave low pressure. Instability will exist, though be on the lower end with only around 100 J/kg CAPE at best and strong capping inversion within the marine layer. That said, some elevated convection remains possible and isolated thunderstorms are most likely through the mid to late afternoon on Saturday across the Central Highlands down through the Interior Downeast region.

A cold front will then cross the region Saturday night into Sunday, bringing additional moisture to the area and more widespread wetting rain showers. Temperatures will be much cooler by the day on Sunday with highs only lifting into the mid 60s to lower 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Strong upper level ridging moves in Monday and lasts at least into the end of next week, bringing hot temperatures of 10-15 degrees above average.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... As the cold front moves out of the area Sunday night into Monday, a ridge in the jet stream moves in behind it. This ridge will move in and park over the Quebec region of Canada through at least the end of next week. Strong high pressure from the ridge will limit precipitation and bring hot temperatures for an extended period of time. Temperatures will be 10-15 degrees above average through at least next Friday, reaching the upper 80s and potentially the low 90s. Models are in good agreement about the high pressure, but exact position and strength are a little more uncertain which would affect how hot temperatures get.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

UPDATE for 00z TAFs...

KFVE, KCAR, KPQI, KHUL...Tonight, VFR conditions will generally prevail initially across the northern sites, though KFVE will see briefly lowered VFR cigs (BKN040) after 05Z but MVFR (BKN020) at FVE. Showers will begin developing in the vicinity of KFVE, KPQI, and KHUL late tonight for a few hours. Winds will remain light and variable to light S-SE at around 5 kts.

Tomorrow: Conditions deteriorate from VFR down to MVFR by 18Z as -SHRA move into the area, further dropping to IFR towards 22Z23Z with persistent -RA and low cigs (BKN008-BKN015) and reduced vsby (3-5 SM). Winds will steadily increase out of the S-SE at 10-15 kts, with gusts picking up to 20 to 25 kts by the afternoon.

KBGR...Tonight, mainly VFR conditions expected through the overnight hours. VCSH this evening for a few hours. Winds will remain light, starting from the S at around 10 kts before becoming variable at 5 kts. Tomorrow, VFR cigs will hold through the morning before lowering to MVFR by 21Z as steady showers approach the area. Winds will increase out of the S-SE to 10 kts, with gusts reaching up to 20 kts by the late afternoon. LLWS becomes a hazard after 23Z 190 degrees at 45 kts.

KBHB tonight VFR conditions will persist overnight with a light and variable wind around 5 kts. Tomorrow, VFR cigs will hold until 21Z, at which point cigs lower to MVFR. Winds will increase out of the E-SE to 10 kts, with daytime gusts reaching 15 kts, before shifting SE at 10 kts. As cigs lower further into the eve, LLWS will develop by 23Z 190 degrees at 45 kts.

Previous Discussion... Saturday night...MVFR/IFR with rain showers across all terminals. Winds light and variable.

Sunday...Conditions improving to VFR through the day, first at northern terminals. N winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts.

Sunday night - Wednesday...VFR across all terminals. N/NW winds 5 to 10 kts, becoming light and variable each night.

MARINE

Generally below small craft advisory conditions on the coastal and intracoastal waters through Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms possible late Saturday afternoon.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029- 030. MARINE...None.