textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Updated Aviation Section for 6z TAFs.

- Added a key message for the rough seas along the coast Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Wetting rain is expected areawide Tuesday night and Wednesday, with a chance of storms. Storms are not expected to be severe, and flooding rain is not anticipated.

2) Rough seas along the Downeast coast Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Wetting rain is expected areawide Tuesday night and Wednesday, with a chance of storms. Storms are not expected to be severe, and flooding rain is not anticipated.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... For the Tuesday night/Wednesday period, we are most likely looking at two primary rounds of activity. The first comes mainly later Tuesday night to mid-morning Wednesday as a warm front moves through from SW to NE. We are looking at rain everywhere, with perhaps a few embedded storms mainly over Downeast. These storms will not be surface-based and will not be strong or severe. We are looking at some pretty decent rain totals from this round of rain, roughly 0.5 to 1 inch, with some locally higher totals Downeast. Advection fog thanks to onshore flow could also be an issue Wednesday AM, especially near the coast but possibly inland too.

After the first round of rain later Tuesday night to mid- morning Wednesday, there could be a bit of a break from mid- morning to mid-afternoon. However, it's unlikely many places will see any sun, as the moist, muggy onshore flow persists and even though there won't be significant rain mid-morning to mid- afternoon Wednesday, there could still be intermittent light rain and drizzle.

Later Wednesday afternoon comes the second round of activity ahead of the approaching upper trough. This activity appears to be primarily in the north and more convective in nature, with showers and a few storms. Not a whole lot of surface-based instability to work with except perhaps over the western North Woods where there could be some breaks in the clouds. That said, atmosphere will be very moist and there will be some wind shear. If we do get more surface heating, it could be a different story, but for now think we will just get some showers and a few non-severe storms over the north late Wednesday afternoon. Another 0.25 to 0.5 of rain possible, mainly in the north. The rain tapers off Wednesday night, but some fog could linger. A much drier airmass moves in for Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Rough seas along the Downeast coast Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Unusually rough seas by late July standards are expected to peak on Wednesday. This is usually the quietest time of year on the waters, but seas in the neighborhood of 6-9 feet are expected up to the coastline, coming mainly as a longer 10 second period swell from the south. What this means is folks along the coast should exercise caution if recreating. Situations like this have resulted in people being swept into the ocean by larger waves crashing on the cliffs at Acadia.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

High confidence in VFR through the TAF period.

Winds become gusty out of the WNW at all terminals around 12-13Z 10-15G20-25KT. Wind gusts should abate late this afternoon/early this evening. Winds become light and variable throughout during the mid evening hours.

Late tonight-Tuesday: VFR. LLWS possible at southern terminals late tonight. W winds G15-20KT possible Tuesday.

Tuesday night - Wednesday...MVFR/IFR in rain and low clouds/fog. TS possible BGR/BHB Wed 6-12z, and HUL/PQI/CAR/FVE Wed 18z-Thu 0z. S/SE winds 8-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts.

Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR in low clouds and fog. SW wind 5-10 kts.

Thursday - Friday...Mainly VFR. W/SW wind 5-10 kts.

MARINE

The coastal waters should remain below SCA criteria through Tuesday, though there will be gusts to around 20 kt. The outer waters should see winds 25 kt or less and seas 4 ft or less through Tuesday.

South winds increase to 20-30 kts late Tuesday night into Wednesday. About a 30 percent chance of gales, mainly in the waters 25-60 NM. Seas build to 6-11 ft, highest in outer waters, for late Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Criteria along the coast has a chance at reaching high surf criteria Wednesday PM. Seas and winds ease Thursday into Friday. Some marine fog Tuesday night through Wednesday night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.