textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 640 AM Update: Cancelled all winter weather advisories outside of southern Aroostook and northern Washington counties as precip has moved out of the area. Update to Aviation section below with 12z TAFs

- Extended small craft advisory over the coastal waters into the day on Thursday and added an SCA on the intracoastal waters today into tonight

- Increased sleet area through early this morning

KEY MESSAGES

1) Wintry mix continues through early this morning, and slick surfaces may linger through the morning commute.

2) Widespread wintry precipitation late Thursday through Friday evening, which could greatly impact Thursday evening, Friday morning, and Friday evening commutes.

3) Another low pressure system moves through region this weekend, bringing a potential for another round of snow/rain/freezing rain, that could impact travel.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Wintry mix continues through early this morning, and slick surfaces may linger through the morning commute.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A wintry mix continues across the North Woods through the Upper Penobscot Valley this morning, with sleet and freezing rain that may continue to create slick surfaces over the next few hours. Rain will continue across the Bangor and Downeast regions as well through the early morning hours. All precipitation will quickly clear out of the forecast area this morning with a cold front, which can already be identified on radar and satellite imagery as having entered the North Woods at this time. Behind the cold front, drier air will rush in and calmer weather will be in store through the rest of the day.

Northerly winds will begin to advect colder air into the region, and temperatures will drop below freezing later this afternoon into this evening, then will quickly fall into the teens to lower 20s through the CWA overnight. Any surfaces which remain wet this evening will freeze, creating a glaze of ice on elevated and untreated surfaces into the overnight period.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread wintry precipitation late Thursday through Friday evening, which could greatly impact Thursday evening, Friday morning, and Friday evening commutes.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Surface high pressure system lingers to the north of the state, as another low pressure system approaches from the southwest. Associated mid-level warm front with this low pressure system lifts over the region Thursday night into Friday, bringing some warmer temperatures into the region. With this system, precipitation begins to fill in from southwest to northeast. Colder air ahead of the warm front allows for mostly snow showers early Thursday night, before warm mid-layer air moves in, transitioning snow over to freezing rain late Thursday night. Confidence in freezing rain increases as models continue to show significant warm nose in sounding analysis. Majority of this ice is expected to fall Thursday night into Friday morning, causing a potential for significant travel impacts for Friday morning commute. Snowfall around 1-3 inches in northern Maine, and 2-4 inches in the St. John Valley. There is a chance for 0.1 0.5 inches of sleet in Aroostook and Central Highlands region. 0.1 to 0.25 inches of ice possible in northern Maine and Central Highlands region. T 0.05 inch of ice possible in the Upper Penobscot Valley.

Precipitation types are going to heavily depend on the track of this low pressure system. Northerly track will bring periods of freezing rain more north in the state, while a southerly track would bring more snow to the north. Decent moisture column and PWATS around 0.75 to 1 inches moving in associated with this system. As temperatures rise above freezing on Friday, all precipitation should transition over to rain during the day. Precipitation intensity starts to diminish overnight on Friday, but rain/snow showers persist through the upcoming weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Another low pressure system moves through region this weekend, bringing potential for another round of snow/rain/freezing rain, that could impact travel.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...

Yet another low pressure system moves through the area Saturday night through Sunday. Precipitation starts as snow in the north, and rain in the Central Highlands, southwards. As warm air aloft advects in, chance for some freezing rain/sleet, mainly in the Central Highlands, northwards. As sun rises and temperatures increase, all precipitation transitions over to rain. ECMWF and GFS are consistent in both anticipating a round of precipitation to occur in the north Saturday night into Sunday, and another round of precipitation throughout the state Sunday into Sunday night ahead of moving in cold front. Continue to monitor the forecast for updates, as precipitation types could heavily depend on pressure system tracks.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Today...IFR/LIFR to start this morning at southern terminals, while northern terminals remain MVFR. All terminals will gradually improve to VFR behind the cold front. Winds shift N 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts. Winds shift N behind the cold front at 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts.

Tonight - Thursday...VFR across all terminals, falling towards MVFR/IFR late on Thursday. Winds light and variable.

Thursday night...IFR/LIFR for SN/PL/FZRA. Precip transitions to RA at BHB and BGR by 12z Fri AM. SE winds 5-10kt. LLWS possible.

Friday - Friday night...IFR/LIFR early with mixed precip changing to RA from S to N through the day. Becoming MVFR/IFR in the afternoon. S to SE winds 5-15kt. Winds shift to the N late Friday night. LLWS possible.

Saturday...VFR. MVFR cigs possible north. -SN/RA mix possible north in the evening. N winds 5-10kt shifting E-NE late day.

Saturday night...IFR/LIFR for SN/PL/FZRA north, RA south. SE winds 5-15kt. Gusts to 25s kt, and LLWS, possible.

Sunday...IFR/LIFR with mix precip north, RA south. Becoming MVFR/IFR with RA areawide. S-SE winds 5-15kt.

MARINE

Small craft advisory conditions continue this morning with seas 3 to 8 ft across all waters this morning. Intracoastal waters will see waves fall back below 5 ft tonight, though seas will remain around 5 to 7 ft on the coastal waters into the day on Thursday. Winds may briefly gust around 25 kts tonight on the coastal waters.

Winds and seas approach SCA criteria by Friday and linger through the weekend. Chance of rain Friday through Sunday. E winds Thursday night, becoming SE by Friday. Winds shift clockwise Friday night into Saturday, becoming easterly by Saturday evening.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for MEZ006-032. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ052.