textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Small decrease in forecast snow totals north of Houlton

- Changed to snow showers for today and tonight

KEY MESSAGES

1) A significant winter storm will continue to impact the region through today and tonight with the highest snow totals over Downeast Maine.

2) Several weak systems along with gradually moderating temperatures Tuesday through the remainder of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A significant winter storm will continue to impact the region through today and tonight with the highest snow totals over Downeast Maine.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The low pressure system will continue to track south of Nova Scotia today. High res model reflectivity shows an area of dry air moving into the surface causing QPF amounts to decrease. A couple of parameters are at play to cause this. First, the exiting low pressure system typically has less moisture on the backside of the system, thus snow showers are expected throughout today. Second, a mid level trof has developed to the west of the state. This has created a secondary vort max behind the exiting low, which has produce a surface trof. As the mid level low becomes closed off and intensifies, the moisture behind the system becomes trapped over the area. Decided to keep the majority of the precip as snow shower, with possible heavier bands as the trof moves through. By tonight, snow showers will taper off.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Several weak systems along with gradually moderating temperatures Tuesday through the remainder of the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Several weak disturbances and fronts will impact the region Tuesday into next weekend. The disturbances and fronts will bring occasional snow shower chances with only minor accumulations expected. A more significant system could begin to impact the region late next weekend though significant uncertainty still exists regarding this system. Temperatures will remain at below normal levels through the week, with a gradual moderation back toward near normal levels next weekend.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Today and Tonight...MVFR/IFR with LIFR vsby in snow and snow showers. NE wind 5-10 kts today, then N wind 5-15 kts tonight.

Tuesday...VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of snow showers. West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots Tuesday night, then 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots Wednesday. West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots Wednesday night.

Thursday through Friday...VFR/MVFR. A slight chance/chance of snow showers, mostly north. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Thursday. West/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots Thursday night, then 10 to 15 knots Friday.

MARINE

Gale conditions continue through at least this afternoon. Then marginal gales through tonight. On the intracoastal waters, SCA conditions through tonight with a low chance of gales. Seas peak at 8 to 12 ft this afternoon. Light freezing spray everywhere today and moderate freezing spray tonight. Offshore winds will be decreasing through the day on Tuesday, falling below 25 kts by the afternoon. Seas will hang on for longer, with seas 5 to 10 ft through Tuesday morning

Small craft advisory conditions are possible Tuesday night into Friday. Light to moderate freezing spray Tuesday night into Thursday. Moderate freezing spray Thursday night into Friday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM EST Tuesday for MEZ001>004. Winter Storm Warning until 3 AM EST Tuesday for MEZ005-006-010- 011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...Gale Warning until 9 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ050-051. Freezing Spray Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for ANZ052. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ052.