textproduct: Caribou

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will build south of the area today. A cold front will approach on Sunday...stall over the area Monday...then move south on Tuesday. A weak upper trough will move over the region Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Update... Only change was to add patchy fog to northern and eastern areas.

See updated aviation section.

previous discussion High pressure will continue to drift east to the south of Nova Scotia, and out into the open waters of the western Atlantic through tonight. The return flow around the departing high will transport warmer air into the region today. This will allow afternoon high temperatures to climb to around the 80 degree mark across the north, and the low to mid 80 for the Bangor region and interior Downeast. It wont feel too uncomfortable as dew points are expected to generally remain in the low to mid 50s this afternoon. Expect plenty of sunshine to start the day, followed by increasing late afternoon high clouds. A Beach Hazard Statement has been issued once again today for the Downeast coast.

A warm front will approach the region this evening and lift to the northeast late tonight. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight. Scatterd showers are possible, mainly across northern and central areas. There is some elevated instabilty, thus an isolated thunderstorm is not totally out of the question. Lows tonight will generally be in the lower 60s across the region.

A more uncomfortable day is on tap for the last day of the Independence Day weekend on Sunday. Dew points are expected to climb into the mid to upper 60s across much of the region. Afternoon highs on Sunday are expected to range from the low to mid 80s across northern areas and the mid to upper 80s for the Bangor region, and interior Downeast. Heat indices are expected to climb into the lower 90s across the central Maine Highlands, the upper Penobscot Valley, interior Downeast, and the Bangor region. However, it appears as if they will just stay below advisory criteria (95F). But it will still be an uncomfortably warm and humid day nevertheless. Another concern on Sunday will be the potential for convection as a cold front begins to cross the region from NW to SE. There still are timing differences with how quickly the front moves into the area, but it will serve as the impetus for showers and thunderstorms as it begins to cross the region. It appears as if the best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be across northern and central areas on Sunday. Looks as if the main threat with any storms that do develop during Sunday will be strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall, with precipitable water values expected to approach 2-inches. It was noted that the Storm Prediction Center has outlooked the region in Marginal for Sunday on their day two convective outlook.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

High pressure sliding from Ontario into Quebec will slowly push a cold front south across the area Sunday night. The front will be pushing into some deeply saturated air with precipitable water over 2" across much of the area. Showers and some embedded thunderstorms along the front may produce a few heavy downpours. CAPE is weak, but frontal surface convergence should support some weak but very moist convection along the front.

The front will continue slowly pushing south on Monday reaching the Downeast region by the end of the day. Showers and some embedded thunderstorms will continue along the front on Monday and then gradually push offshore Monday night. A few heavy downpours will still be possible as the front continues to push into Saturated air. The very humid air over the coastal waters will likely cause fog and mist to persist along the coast through Monday night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Weak high pressure building over the north will bring partial clearing to northern areas on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the very slow moving front will be near, or just offshore on Tuesday. A shallow longwave trough will remain over the east extending from the Great Lakes region across New England early next week. The main forecast challenge will be in identifying and timing subtle shortwave ripples tracking through this trough. Long range models are showing a very weak shortwave low sliding off the Mid-Atlantic coast on Tuesday. This ripple may hold up the front just a bit keeping it nearby off the coast and bringing a continued chance of showers over southern areas. Once this shortwave slides east, the front will be able to continue south bringing decreasing chances for showers Tuesday night followed by a partly sunny day on Wednesday. Some of the models are showing another weak ripple of energy in the northern branch of the jet stream Wednesday which, if it materializes, could bring spotty showers on Wednesday. The late week period looks a bit unsettled as the weak upper trough remains over the northeast bringing continued chances for spotty showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

NEAR TERM:

KFVE...VFR today, except LIFR/VLIFR at times in FG through 12z. W to NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Tonight...VFR with scattered showers after midnight, S to SW wind 5 to 10 kt. LLWS. Sunday...VFR, with possible MVFR or lower in the afternoon in showers/tstms. W to SW wind 10 t0 15 kt.

KCAR...VFR today with W to NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Tonight...VFR with scattered showers after midnight, S to SW wind 5 to 10 kt. LLWS. Sunday...VFR, with possible MVFR or lower in the afternoon in showers/tstms. W to SW wind 10 to 15 kt.

KPQI...VFR today, except brief MVFR or lower in patchy BR through 12Z. W to NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Tonight...VFR with scattered showers after midnight, S to SW wind 5 to 10 kt. LLWS. Sunday...VFR, with possible MVFR or lower in the afternoon in showers/tstms. W to SW wind 10 t0 15 kt.

KHUL...VFR today, except brief MVFR or lower in patchy BR through 12z. W to NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Tonight...VFR with scattered showers after midnight, S to SW wind 5 to 10 kt. Sunday...VFR, with possible MVFR or lower in the afternoon in showers/tstms. W to SW wind 10 t0 15 kt.

KBGR...VFR through Sun. W wind 10 to 15 kt, then S 10 kt tonight through Sun.

KBHB...VFR through Sun. W wind 10 to 15 kt, then S 10 kt tonight through Sun.

SHORT TERM: Sunday night...MVFR to IFR north and VFR to MVFR south. Light NW wind over the north and light SW wind over the south.

Monday...MVFR, to occasionally IFR in showers across the area. Light N wind north and light and variable wind south.

Monday night...MVFR to VFR north. MVFR south, possibly dropping to IFR at times. Light N wind north and Light and variable wind south.

Tuesday...VFR north and MVFR south. Light and variable wind.

Tuesday night...VFR, except occasionally MVFR south. Light N wind.

Wednesday...VFR. Light N wind.

MARINE

NEAR TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below SCA levels through Sunday.

SHORT TERM: A few wind gusts may reach 25 kt over the offshore waters Sunday night and seas may reach 5 to 6 ft Sunday night. Wind and seas should then be below SCA Monday into early next week. Humid air over the colder waters will result in dense fog at times across the waters Sunday into early next week.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...None.