textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

535 am update...Update for 12z aviation discussion

KEY MESSAGES

1) Generally dry weather today through late this week.

2) Nor'easter could potentially cause minor beach erosion to the coast from tonight into possibly Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Generally dry weather today through late this week.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A weak cold front will move through the area early this morning. Winds veer around to the north as it moves through with very little cloud cover expected with fropa. Moisture pools ahead of the front with possible fog developing over Downeast this morning. Nighttime microphysics imagery and area webcams show patchy fog beginning to develop as of 04z.

Max temps will be some 10 degrees below yda/s values over the north with similar temps over southern areas. Highs will range from around 50 over the north to around 60 south. Clear skies and calms winds for most of the area tonight with mins dropping blo frzg everywhere. Cannot rule out a low stratus deck moving into the North Woods after midnight tonight and thru daybreak on Wednesday morning.

An extended period of dry weather is expected through the end of the week under extremely dry airmass. Noreaster continues to spin off of the mid-Atlantic coast before exiting to the east Thu into Fri. Some discrepancies in model guidance is beginning to show with EC closing off upr low over the northeast by the end of the week and bringing pcpn into the area Thursday night and has been hinting at this soln for the past 2 days. 12z Canadian is also beginning to pick up on this soln as is the ICON and JMA for what that/s worth. All this to say that confidence is lower in no precipitation expected through the end of the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Nor'easter could potentially cause minor beach erosion to the coast from tonight into possibly Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A cutoff low off the Mid Atlantic Coast lifts Wednesday morning northeast through Thursday morning, then either continues northeast into The Maritimes or heads eastward Friday.

Ensemble guidance generally keeps the storm well offshore but a few solutions bring it further north towards our area. If the stronger more northern solutions for this Nor'easter are correct, then there could be some minor beach erosion along portions of the Downeast coast around the time of high tide from tonight into at least Thursday. While predicted water levels will remain below coastal flood benchmarks, there could be sufficient wave setup/runup over multiple high tide cycles to cause some minor beach erosion at more vulnerable locations along the coasts of Hancock and Washington Counties. With the vast majority of solutions with the Nor'easter not favoring a stronger and more northward track at this time, the current chance for even minor beach erosion with this system is very low, at 10-20%.

AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Today...VFR. Cannot rule out an early IFR vsby in patchy fog at BGR and BHB this morning. NW winds 5-10kts gusting to 20kts at terminals.

Tonight...VFR. N winds 5-10kts.

Wednesday...VFR. Light winds becoming ESE Aroostook terminals and NE BGR and BHB.

Wednesday night: With the possible exception of a low chance of MVFR or lower in patchy fog late, it should be VFR. Light and variable winds overnight.

Thursday: High confidence in VFR at northern terminals and KBGR. Downeast terminals most likely will be VFR, however there is a very low chance of MVFR or lower conditions in rain, with the best chance near the immediate coast. N/NW winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts.

Thursday night-Friday: VFR, with a chance of MVFR in scattered snow/rain showers. N/NW winds 15 to 20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts.

Friday night-Saturday: VFR. WNW winds 5 to 10 kts.

MARINE

N winds gust to 25kts over the coastal waters today and tonight. SCA is in effect today through tonight for winds gusting to 30kts with seas building to between 4-6 ft in serly swell.

Winds and seas decrease below SCA criteria late Wednesday and remain below criteria through Thursday. SCA conditions on the coastal and intracoastal waters Thursday night into Friday with a 50% chance of gales on the outer waters. Seas peak at 4 to 6 ft on the coastal waters and 6 to 8 ft on the outer waters early Friday. Below SCA conditions on the coastal and intracoastal waters Friday night into Saturday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051.