textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased snow amounts slightly across the north through Sunday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A winter storm will affect the region later tonight through Sunday night. This will result in locally heavy snow across the north and snow and a wintry mix for downeast and the Bangor region. Hazardous travel is expected Sunday and Sunday night.

2) Gusty North to northeast winds will develop later Sunday night with patchy blowing snow expected across northern areas.

3) Gusty winds with patchy blowing snow across northern areas Monday.

4) Clipper system tracks northwest of the region Wednesday.

5) Strong cold front crosses the region Wednesday night into Thursday with uncertain timing.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A winter storm will affect the region later tonight through Sunday night. This will result in locally heavy snow across the north and snow and a wintry mix for downeast and the Bangor region. Hazardous travel is expected Sunday and Sunday night.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Two areas of low pressure will affect the region through Sunday. One will track east from the Great Lakes region and the other across the Gulf of Maine. Locally heavy snow is expected at times Sunday through Sunday night across the north. There will actually be two distinct bursts of snow. The first one will develop after after midnight tonight in response to the warm advection aloft/overunning pattern and this will continue through mid Sunday morning. Snow will be locally heavy at times during this period, especially from around 3 AM through 10 AM Sunday morning. The Great Lakes low will then tend to weaken as the coastal low tracks toward the Canadian Maritimes during Sunday afternoon, a lull in the snowfall is actually expected in the afternoon, with generally only light snowfall rates.

Snow intensity once again picks up during Sunday evening and into Sunday night, as the upper level low pressure tracks east across the area. The best time frame for locally heavy snowfall with this feature will be between 7 PM Sunday through about 1 AM Monday morning.

For the Bangor region and Downeast Maine, less in the way of snowfall is expected there. There may be a period of a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain, especially across coastal downeast areas late tonight into early morning Sunday. The forecast soundings actually show drier air working into the mid levels toward day break Sunday and this may result in some light freezing drizzle developing Sunday morning. This drier mid level air will keep snowfall amounts down in the Bangor region. The snow does once again pick up in intensity for a time early Sunday evening before tapering to scattered snow showers later Sunday evening. Only some light additional accumulations are expected then.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Gusty North to northeast winds will develop later Sunday night with patchy blowing snow expected across northern areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure intensifying across the Canadian Maritimes provinces during Sunday night will result in a gusty north to northwest wind developing after midnight Sunday, with gusts as high as 25 to 30 mph expected. This will result in patchy blowing snow later Sunday night, mainly across northern areas, especially in the usual open agricultural areas of Aroostook county. Reduced visibilities and locally hazardous travel can be expected as a result.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Gusty winds with patchy blowing snow across northern areas Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... A tight pressure gradient between intense low pressure exiting across the Gulf of Saint Lawrence and high pressure building from the west will support gusty northwest/west winds Monday. These winds will support patchy blowing snow across mostly the favored open agricultural areas across northern portions of the forecast area Monday. Wrap around snow showers from the exiting low could also contribute to the blowing snow early Monday in addition to already fallen snow.

KEY MESSAGE 4... Clipper system tracks northwest of the region Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION... A clipper system will track northwest of the region Wednesday. Warmer air will be drawn north across the forecast area in advance of the clipper system. An early rain/snow mix should transition to rain across Downeast areas Wednesday with minimal snow accumulations. Across northern areas, expect precipitation mostly in the form of light snow though the snow could possibly mix with rain during the afternoon. Current indications only support light snow accumulations across northern areas Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 5... Strong cold front crosses the region Wednesday night into Thursday with uncertain timing.

KEY MESSAGE 5 DESCRIPTION... The clipper system which tracks northwest of the region Wednesday will draw a strong cold front across the region Wednesday night into Thursday. However, the exact timing of this front remains uncertain dependent on the timing/location of low pressure developing in the Mid-Atlantic region Thursday. Temperatures will fall steadily in the wake of the cold front supporting the possibility of a flash freeze dependent on how rapidly temperatures fall Wednesday night into Thursday.

AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through about midnight, then conditions will deteriorate to IFR from south to north across the terminals 06z to 12z Sunday. Expect snow at the Aroostook terminals and a wintry mix for KBGR/KBHB. Widespread IFR conditions are expected to persist at the Aroostook County terminals through much of Sunday night in periods of snow. KBGR/KBHB are expected to remain IFR into Sunday evening in mainly occasional light snow through Sunday, although -FZDZ is expected at KBGR/KBHB from about 12Z Sunday into Sunday afternoon. Conditions here will then tend toward MVFR/VFR late Sunday night. Light wind expected early this evening, then N to NE wind around 5 to 10 kt through Sunday. Wind will become N to NW Sunday night, and become gusty at the Aroostook terminals.

Monday...Across northern areas, MVFR/IFR early with a chance of snow showers and blowing snow. VFR/MVFR during the afternoon. Across Downeast areas, VFR/MVFR early then VFR. Northwest/west winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts up to around 30 knots, becoming west/southwest 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Monday night through Tuesday...VFR/MVFR north. VFR Downeast. Southwest/south winds 5 to 10 knots Monday night. Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots Tuesday.

Tuesday night...Across northern areas, VFR/MVFR early then lowering to MVFR/IFR with developing light snow. Across Downeast areas, VFR early then VFR/MVFR with a chance of light snow/rain. South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Wednesday...Across northern areas, IFR/LIFR with light snow possibly mixed with rain during the afternoon. Across Downeast areas, IFR/LIFR a chance of light rain, possibly mixed with snow early. South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Wednesday night... Across northern areas, MVFR/IFR then VFR/MVFR. A chance of snow showers. VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers Downeast. Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming west/northwest.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers. Northwest/north winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots.

MARINE

Winds/seas will begin to increase to SCA levels tonight into Sunday, well ahead of the expected gale force winds later Sunday night. Thus, two separate headlines were issued with this package. The first for the SCA conditions that are expected to develop later tonight through Sunday, and then for the gale force winds expected to develop later Sunday night.

Gale conditions Monday. Small craft advisory conditions possible Monday night into Wednesday. A slight chance of snow showers early Monday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Monday for MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 PM EST Sunday for ANZ050>052. Gale Warning from 10 PM Sunday to 4 PM EST Monday for ANZ050>052.