textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Amounts and probabilities of snow along coastal Downeast Maine have decreased again with a more out to sea track

- Some snow showers possible, mainly over the north, Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday

KEY MESSAGES

- Very cold wind chills as low as 25 below this morning and 20 below tonight can quickly lead to hypothermia or frostbite if proper precautions are not taken.

- A strong storm passing well to our southeast will bring gusty winds and patchy blowing and drifting snow to the Downeast region Sunday into Monday

- There is potential for a winter storm next weekend to bring accumulating snow.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Very cold wind chills as low as 25 below this morning and 20 below tonight can quickly lead to hypothermia or frostbite if proper precautions are not taken.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Below average temperatures will continue through tonight, with a modest northwest wind as the area remains between a ridge of high pressure to the west and two areas of low pressure, one just south of Greenland, and another developing off the Mid- Atlantic coast. Wind chills as low as 25 below remain possible early this morning across higher terrain areas of northern Somerset and central Piscataquis County. Elsewhere, wind chills will generally be between 5 and 20 below this morning.

High temperatures today are expected to reach into the teens for most areas, with wind chills moderating to between 5 below and 10 above. Tonight, mostly clear skies are expected with temperatures dropping into the -10s across the North Woods, as well as low lying areas, while other areas see lows between 10 below and zero. Wind chills and/or temperatures around 20 below are possible tonight, and the need for another cold weather advisory cannot be ruled out. Regardless, the impacts are nearly the same and basic precautions must be taken to avoid frostbite and hypothermia if outside for longer than a few minutes.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong storm passing well to our southeast will bring gusty winds and patchy blowing and drifting snow to the Downeast region Sunday into Monday

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A large, intense low pressure system is expected to pass well offshore to our southeast Sunday through Monday. Ensemble and deterministic solutions continue to trend slightly southeast, lessening impacts from winds and the chance of any snow. However, due to the size of the storm, the wind field is expected to extend into Downeast Maine, resulting in gusty winds up to around 30 mph with the greatest winds to around 35 mph expected along the coast. There is potential for blowing and drifting snow given there is no crust on the current snowpack and its light, dry nature, which should make it easily blowable especially where there are high snowbanks along roadways bordering open fields. Current thinking is that blowing snow will be patchy in nature with a few isolated whiteouts but not expecting major impacts. Little snowfall is expected with this storm and some ensemble members show no snow at all. Far eastern Washington county has the best chance of seeing snow with any accumulations well under an inch.

KEY MESSAGE 3...There is potential for a winter storm next weekend to bring accumulating snow.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... The next chance for accumulating snow is this weekend as ensemble solutions are showing the potential for a modest low pressure system to approach our area from the ESE over the Great Lakes region and then possibly redevelop in the Gulf of Maine. Ensemble solutions are still pretty split on the evolution of this system with some keeping it more to our south and others showing it crossing through the area. Far too early to suggest possible amounts but most guidance shows the storm only reaching a modest intensity indicating the potential for mainly light snow accumulations.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Today and Tonight: An MVFR cloud deck is likely to persist across far northern Maine north of HUL, including PQI/CAR/FVE through much of the day and into tonight. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are expected with clear skies. NW winds 5 to 10 kts.

Sunday: VFR. N winds around 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts across the north, with stronger winds around 15 to 20 kts gusting to 30 kts for Downeast and coastal airports.

Sunday night...VFR north. 10 percent chance of MVFR at BHB in light snow. Patchy BLSN possible. N wind becoming NW late with winds 10 to 15 kts and gusts 20 to 25 kt at southern terminals.

Monday...VFR. Patchy BLSN possible. NW wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts 20 to 25 kt at southern terminals early, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon.

Monday night...VFR. NW wind around 5 kt.

Tuesday...VFR. NW wind around 5 kt.

Tuesday night...VFR except possibly occasional MVFR for northern terminals. NW wind 5 kt or less.

Wednesday...VFR except possibly occasional MVFR for northern terminals with -SHSN. NW wind around 5 kt.

MARINE

Winds and seas will continue to decrease today, along with freezing spray. Winds, seas, and freezing spray increase again late tonight into Sunday. A very large storm will be tracking well offshore Sunday into Monday but an expansive wind field will bring high end gale conditions to the outer waters Sunday into Monday morning with more modest gale conditions over the inner waters Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning. The Gale Watch has been upgrade to a Gale Warning for all of the coastal waters Sunday and Sunday night. The strongest winds will be over the outermost waters at 40NM offshore. Seas are forecast to increase to around 10 to 11 feet over the outer edge of the marine zones 40NM offshore, tapering closer to the coast.

Winds and seas decrease below SCA conditions by early Tuesday morning and remain below criteria through Wednesday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for MEZ003- 010. MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ050>052. Gale Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for ANZ050>052.