textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Dense fog advisory was extended southwards, now including northern Piscataquis, northern Penobscot, southern Aroostook, and northern Washington counties.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Anomalously warm temperatures today and Friday could approach daily record highs.

2) Additional rainfall expected Friday into the weekend, though amounts are still uncertain. The rainfall could help provide some drought relief.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Anomalously warm temperatures today and Friday could approach daily record highs.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A stationary front remains parked over northern Maine early this morning, and should slowly begin to lift northwards as a warm front through the mid morning hours today. With the parent surface low remaining over the Great Lakes at this time, this puts Maine well within the warm sector of the low, with steady southwest warm air advection maintaining above average temperatures through the day today, even as cloud cover may linger over the northern half of the state.

Elevated low level moisture persists behind the recent rainfall, leading to patchy to areas of dense fog early this morning. This fog could return tonight, especially in areas which hold onto high dewpoints into this evening. A brief period of light rain early this evening will sweep through the CWA, and areas which receive additional rainfall will be most susceptible to the return of dense fog overnight.

Friday will feature another round of anomalously warm temperatures at least 10 degrees above average, however increasing cloud cover ahead of the next low pressure system and decreased warm air advection may lead to temperatures not quite as warm as earlier in the week, limiting but not completely eliminating the chance for reaching daily record high temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Additional rainfall expected Friday into the weekend, though amounts are still uncertain. The rainfall could help provide some drought relief.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... An upper-level low pressure system from the Great Lakes region moves east on Friday. This system helps develop a coastal low that will move NE along the New England coast. Models continue to struggle with the exact location of the low track, which is going to impact how far north precipitation reaches. Generally, models are in agreement that the storm system with move along the Gulf of Maine. As a result, the Downeast region has the best chance for higher rain totals. After this, uncertainty then develops Saturday into Sunday regarding the track of the surface low. Global models are struggling with how the coastal low will interact with the upper-low. A track closer to the Downeast coast would bring better rain chances to the entire forecast area. A track across the Gulf of Maine to Nova Scotia would keep better rain chances across Downeast areas, with less rain totals northward across the remainder of the forecast area. Precipitation totals Friday through Sunday will be dependent on the eventual track of the low. As of this update, chance for 1-1.5 inches for Downeast coast, 0.5-1.0 inches for interior Downeast, 0.1-0.5 inches in the north, Friday through Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Early this morning...VFR Downeast. Mainly IFR/LIFR at northern terminals in low cigs, fog and light drizzle, particularly at terminals at higher elevations such as FVE and CAR. HUL could remain VFR through the morning, but moderate/high confidence IFR cigs will move in through the early morning. Light and variable winds.

Today...Gradual improvement to MVFR/VFR at northern terminals by mid-day, before decreasing to MVFR in the afternoon with light rain showers. Downeast terminals will remain VFR, dipping towards MVFR shortly before 00z. LLWS from the southwest at BHB after 20z. S winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts this afternoon. Strongest gusts will be at Downeast terminals.

Tonight...MVFR/IFR, in rain. SSW winds 5 to 10 kts. LLWS possible over Downeast terminals.

Friday...MVFR/IFR at Downeast terminals, due to rain and low ceilings. MVFR ceilings possible at northern terminals. S/SW winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming NW at northern terminals, and variable and southern terminals.

Friday night through Saturday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, due to rain, low ceilings, and chance for fog Downeast. N/NE winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, due to rain. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, with gusts 15 to 20 knots possible during the afternoon.

Sunday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, due to rain tapering to showers. NW winds 10 to 15 knots, with gusts to 20 knots possible.

Sunday night-Monday...VFR/MVFR, from a chance of rain showers in the north. W/NW winds 10 to 15 knots, with gusts 20 to 25 knots possible.

MARINE

Below small craft advisory criteria on all waters today. Near SCA winds and seas on the coastal waters this evening through tonight, with wind gusts 20 to 25 kts on the coastal waters and seas around 5 ft. These conditions will be dependent on where low pressure stalls, so confidence is low at this point (around 20 percent chance) for advisory conditions to be met.

Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Friday through Saturday. Rain and patchy fog Friday through Sunday. Winds and seas approach SCA criteria on Sunday into Monday. SW winds Friday, shifting to the N/NW by Sunday.

CLIMATE

Persistent warm air advection into the forecast area over the next two days will lead to temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal, and temperatures could approach daily record highs.

Thursday, November 5 CAR: Record 73 set in 2022... Forecast 64 HUL: Record 70 set in 2022... Forecast 66 MLT: Record 72 set in 2022... Forecast 65 BGR: Record 73 set in 2022... Forecast 68

Friday, November 6 CAR: Record 72 set in 2024... Forecast 61 HUL: Record 71 set in 2022... Forecast 62 MLT: Record 72 set in 2024... Forecast 62 BGR: Record 75 set in 2024... Forecast 65

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for MEZ001-002- 004>006-032. MARINE...None.