textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 8:15PM UPDATE...Have extended the Small Craft Advisory for the Coastal Waters out to 25nm for wind gusts to 30kt and seas up to 6ft till 2AM tonight. Have allowed the Intra-Coastal Waters SCA expire at 8PM. 00z TAF UPDATE...see below for more details.

- 5:12PM UPDATE...Have allowed the Wind Advisory to expire as the W-NW winds are gradually relaxing below criteria. It will remain breezy till just after midnight when winds go light and variable. Have allowed the Gale Warning to expire for the Waters 25-60nm offshore. SCA conditions continue on all the waters. No other changes...

KEY MESSAGES

1) The strong westerly winds will ease late this afternoon into the evening.

2) Frost expected Downeast tonight with low temperatures approaching freezing.

3) Light rain is likely late Wednesday into Thursday. Little to no drought relief expected.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...The strong westerly winds will ease late this afternoon into the evening.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... So far as of early Monday afternoon, the highest winds have been in Northern Maine, with 35 to 50 mph gusts and isolated power outages, with not quite as much wind Bangor/Downeast with gusts topping out 25 to 35 mph. The highest gusts have occurred for most areas by early this afternoon, and winds will steadily decrease through the rest of the afternoon and drop pretty fast around sunset. Any additional damage should be before 5pm. Wind chills atop Katahdin will remain in the teens through the evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Frost expected Downeast tonight with low temperatures approaching freezing.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... High pressure building in behind the departing low pressure system should lead to clearing skies this evening, which in combination with decreasing winds should allow for strong overnight cooling. Temperatures are expected to dip into the low to mid 30s tonight over Downeast where the growing season is still active. Areas to widespread frost are likely and thus a Frost Advisory is in effect. Opted to expand the frost advisory south to the coast. While do not think the very immediate coast will get frost, feel that you will only have to go inland a mile or two to see some frost, so expanded the advisory to the coastal zones. Some high clouds will be moving in very late in the night, but do not think they will be fast enough to limit cooling especially in the area under the frost advisory.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Light rain is likely late Wednesday into Thursday. Little to no drought relief expected.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Thickening clouds through the day Wednesday with perhaps some sprinkles mainly over the north by midday. Rain chances gradually increase late Wednesday and into Wednesday night, and persist into Thursday. This is associated with an approaching cold front that will move through during the day Thursday. All together, rainfall from this system looks pretty light late Wednesday into Thursday, with totals generally one tenth to one third inch in the north and zero to one tenth of an inch Downeast.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

00z TAF UPDATE...

Tonight...Mainly VFR. BKN030-040 at far northern terms till 6z. West/northwest winds 10-15 kts becoming light and variable by 6z. LLWS early evening.

Wednesday...VFR. Southwest/south winds increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots. Chance of rain in the afternoon, mainly northern terminals.

Wednesday night...VFR early. VFR/MVFR late, with possible IFR BGR/BHB late. Light rain possible, mainly northern terminals. South winds 5 to 10 knots. Thursday...MVFR/IFR in showers. SSW winds 5-10 kts.

Thursday night...VFR. A slight chance of showers in the north. WSW winds 5-10 kts.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of showers north. VFR Downeast. W winds 10-15 kts.

Friday night through Saturday...VFR. W winds 5-10 kts.

Sunday...VFR. SW winds 5-15 kts.

MARINE

Gales until 5 PM EDT for the outer waters. Small craft conditions on the intracoastal waters persist through 8 PM EDT tonight and through about midnight tonight for the coastal waters. Seas 3 to 7 ft decrease tonight. Quiet winds/seas Wednesday.

Small craft advisory conditions possible Wednesday night into Thursday. Winds should increase through Friday night with SCA possible on Saturday. Decreasing winds Sunday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for MEZ016-017- 029-030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051.