textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

-Slight increases in forecast high temperatures Wednesday and Thursday compared to the previous forecast -Decreased dew points on Thursday afternoon with minimum relative humidity now expected to fall to around 20 percent in some spots.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm and dry weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday. The next chance of showers is Friday afternoon across the north and Saturday for the rest of the area as a cold front approaches.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm and dry weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday. The next chance of showers is Friday afternoon across the north and Saturday for the rest of the area as a cold front approaches.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Upper level ridging over Ontario into the Great Lakes today will pivot southeast over the next couple days, leading to rising 500mb heights and temperatures aloft across the area. Plenty of sunshine is expected both Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures rising into the upper 70s to low 80s on Wednesday, then 80s for nearly all locations away from the immediate coast on Thursday. The air mass will be relatively dry, so heat indices will remain below actual temperatures in most cases. By Friday a cold front will approach the area with increasing moisture and PWATs as an upper level trough over the Northern Plains directs Gulf moisture over the top of the Mid-Atlantic ridge and towards northern Maine. This will lead to cloudier skies, cooler temperatures, and a chance of showers across the north, while southern areas remain drier and warmer into Friday. There are timing differences among the models on the frontal passage as high pressure building to the north of the area forces a cooler, drier air mass into the area. The current consensus is for the front to be through most areas by 0z Sunday, with the possible exception of coastal and marine zones. Isolated thunderstorms are possible with the front on Saturday, but poor mid level lapse rates around 4.5-6 deg C/km and MLCAPE well below 1000 j/kg could preclude more widespread storms and limit the severe weather threat.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

This Afternoon to Wednesday night...VFR. NW winds around 10 kts with gusts to 20kts this afternoon, becoming light and variable tonight, then W around 5-10 kts Wednesday.

Thursday to Thursday night...VFR. WSW winds around 10 kts with gusts 15-20 kts Thursday late morning to evening.

Friday...Mainly VFR. Slight chance (20 percent) of MVFR ceilings at northern terminals with showers late Friday afternoon into Friday evening. NW winds 5-10kts.

Friday night to Saturday...VFR favored at southern terminals, with a period of MVFR/IFR likely at northern and central terminals with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Light NE winds at northern terminals. W winds around 10 kts with gusts 15-20 kts at southern terminals.

Saturday night...MVFR/IFR with showers. Light NE winds.

Sunday...MVFR/IFR possible at southern terminals, especially early, otherwise VFR. ENE winds 10-15 kts.

MARINE

Winds and seas below advisory criteria are expected through at least this weekend. A SSE swell will develop Thursday through Saturday with a period around 7 to 10 seconds. Sea surface temperatures remain in the mid 40s across most of the coastal waters.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.