textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

655 pm update... Update to aviation discussion

-Added blowing snow to this afternoon and evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Artic air late week through the weekend into early next week brings the coldest air of the season along with extremely dangerous wind chills.

2) Light snow Wednesday night, mainly Downeast.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Artic air late week through the weekend into early next week brings the coldest air of the season along with extremely dangerous wind chills.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... An Arctic cold front will cross the region Friday. Arctic air will spill across the region in the wake of the front then persist through the weekend into early next week. Much below normal level temperatures are expected Friday through Monday. High temperatures Friday will range from around 10 to around 15 north, to the lower to mid 20s Downeast. Low temperatures Friday night will range from around 10 below to 20 below zero north, to around zero to around 5 below Downeast. High temperatures Saturday will range from around zero to 5 below north, to 5 to 10 Downeast. Low temperatures Saturday night will generally range from 15 to 20 below zero north, to 5 to 10 below zero Downeast. High temperatures Sunday will range from around zero north, to 5 to 10 Downeast. Low temperatures Sunday night will range from 10 to 15 below zero north, to around zero to 5 below Downeast. High temperatures Monday will range from around 5 above north, to 10 to 15 Downeast. However, wind chill values will be much lower. The pressure gradient between intensifying low pressure moving from the Gulf of Saint Lawrence to Labrador and strong Arctic high pressure to the west will support gusty winds Friday into Sunday. These winds, together with the very cold temperatures, will produce dangerous wind chills Friday into Sunday. Wind chill temperatures later Friday into Sunday will generally range from around 25 below to 40 below zero across northern areas, with around 10 below to around 25 below zero Downeast. Snow showers, along with possible snow squalls, will accompany the Arctic front Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Light snow Wednesday night, mainly Downeast

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... The surface ridge will continue to move to the east as a low pressure system over the Great Lakes moves towards the area. By Wednesday night the low will occlude and develop a weak triple point across the coast. High res models have been more consistent with the intensification of the triple point to a closed low after midnight on Wednesday night. This intensification will increase QPF amounts on the back end, which will increase snow amounts mainly in Washington county. The cold arctic air that will be in place during the night will keep snow ratios high, so snow totals are expected to be 2-4 inches in the south and around an inch in the north.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR tonight and Wednesday expected. IFR/LIFR moving in Wednesday evening Downeast terminals in snow, then moving to northern terminals late Wednesday night with IFR snow expected. WSW winds tonight, SW winds gusting 15-20kts Wednesday afternoon, then S 5-10kts Wednesday night.

Thursday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, early. VFR/MVFR late. Snow tapering to snow showers. South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots.

Thursday night...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of snow showers north. VFR Downeast. Southwest/west winds 10 to 15 knots.

Friday...Variable conditions with any snow showers. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR. Southwest/west winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots.

Friday night through Saturday...VFR/MVFR north. VFR Downeast. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 to 30 knots.

Saturday night through Sunday...VFR. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Saturday night. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots Sunday.

MARINE

A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all waters this evening through Wednesday night with a few gust up to 35 and seas 3-9 ft.

Gale conditions expected Thursday into Saturday night. Small craft advisory conditions Sunday into Sunday night. Light freezing spray Friday. Moderate to heavy freezing spray Friday night into Sunday. A slight chance of snow showers Friday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ050>052.