textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Lowered dew points 1-2 degrees this afternoon.

- Lowered temperatures 1-2 degrees in the North Woods tonight where decoupling leads to upper 30s and low 40s.

- Models continue to disagree on rain totals for Sunday - Monday system.

KEY MESSAGES

1) There is the potential for widespread rainfall from Sunday into Monday. It is not certain how much, if any, relief this could bring to the ongoing drought at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...There is the potential for widespread rainfall from Sunday into Monday. It is not certain how much, if any, relief this could bring to the ongoing drought at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure system approaches from the Great Lakes on Sunday, moving into Quebec by Monday. GFS and NAM models continue to develop a surface low pressure system that slides along the coast on Sunday, bringing some additional moisture Downeast. ECWMF does not develop this surface low, however, instead hinting at an inverted trough along the coast line. This discontinuity between models results in widely different precipitation totals, with the GFS/NAM showing higher rainfall totals, and the ECMWF showing more modest totals.

The models do agree on rain beginning late Saturday and continuing into Monday. Models continue to lack favorable instability for severe storms, with most atmospheric soundings just looking moist. PWATs roughly in the 1.75-2.00 inch range, which is above the 90th percentile for the daily high PWAT value around Caribou. Regardless, not anticipating relief from drought with these showers. Convection along frontal boundary on Monday could result in some higher rain totals, but will need to monitor how regional models pick up on this system to see if environment will be favorable enough to support thunderstorms. As of this update, convection is more favorable Monday.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 12z This Morning...VFR high cigs becoming FEW150 or SKC. Low confidence in BCFG/BR that may briefly reduce vsby between 09-11z. Light and variable winds.

Today...VFR. SKC/FEW150. N-NW winds 5kt or less. Late morning into the afternoon winds shift E-SE 5-10kt at BHB due to seabreeze.

Tonight...VFR. Light and variable winds.

Saturday...VFR. Becoming MVFR late day at BHB/BGR. VCSH/-SHRA develops from SW to NE. SE winds 5-15kt.

Saturday night-Sunday: MVFR/IFR in rain showers. Slight chance for thunderstorms Saturday night, and Sunday afternoon. E winds Saturday night at 5-10 kts, becoming E/SE on Sunday.

Sunday night-Monday: MVFR/IFR in rain showers. Slight chance for thunderstorms Sunday night and Monday afternoon. Chance for fog at KBHB Sunday night into early Monday morning. S/SE winds at 5-10 kts Sunday night, becoming SW on Monday. Gusts 15-20 kts possible on Monday afternoon.

Monday night-Tuesday: MVFR at northern terminals in rain showers Monday night, and again Tuesday afternoon. VFR at KBGR/KBHB. SW winds at 5-10 kts.

MARINE

Winds generally less than 15kt through tonight and seas 1-2ft into the overnight hours later tonight. E winds increase tomorrow with gusts 10-20kt across the waters and may approach 25kt at times over the waters 25-60nm. Seas will build to 2-3ft with the highest seas 25-60nm offshore. Rain showers develop in the afternoon and may reduce vsby to 5nm or less.

Slight chance of winds or seas reaching 25 kts/5 ft Monday- Tuesday. Fog likely the next few nights. Rain moves in Saturday, with a chance for thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. E winds Saturday night, becoming S on Sunday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...None.