textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Have expired the Small Craft Advisory on the Coastal Waters. Winds have fallen below SCA criteria. No other changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Light snow is possible across the north Monday night into Tuesday night. This may result in some minor travel difficulties over the north.

2) May see snow toward the middle of the week, mainly over Downeast and the Bangor Region but impacts, if any, remain uncertain.

3) Active pattern through the end of the week bringing unsettled weather to the region toward the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Light snow is possible across the north Monday night into Tuesday night. This may result in some minor travel difficulties over the north.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A weak low pressure system is expected to pass to our north Tuesday through Tuesday night, eventually exiting out over the maritimes Wednesday. As the low approaches, southerly flow will result in warm air advection over the area beginning Monday afternoon which will contribute to more mild temperatures, possibly exceeding freezing in most areas Tuesday. The warm air advection will also foster the development of snow showers beginning over the north Monday night. While the NBM does not show much precip potential, this regime can be quite favorable for snow showers this time of year. Snow showers should continue into Tuesday as the warm air advection persists before eventually clearing out Tuesday night with the passage of the cold front. Not much accumulation is expected but a quick inch or two is possible which may make for slippery roads.

KEY MESSAGE 2...May see snow toward the middle of the week, mainly over Downeast and the Bangor Region but impacts, if any, remain uncertain.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Sfc low will develop over the northern Plains early in the week with boundary stretched toward the mid-Atlantic on Wednesday. This system looks to develop in response to system currently over the eastern Pacific and not currently in the upper air network. Deterministic models are hinting at weak surface low developing off of the coast Wednesday evening but remain unclear on where development will occur. This will ultimately be determined by the strength of the high pressure bleeding into the northeast out of northern Canada.

A weaker high will allow surface low to develop further north near the Gulf of Maine, while a stronger high will push development south leaving snow to the south of the waters. Gut feeling is that redevelopment will occur well to our south as it appears to get the squeeze play from lingering sfc low over the Maritimes with system ending up as a fish storm for our CWA but will be able to refine details as the parent system moves into the UA network. Most of the ensemble members keep system to our south and out of the CWA but a few have impacts to Downeast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Active pattern through the end of the week bringing unsettled weather to the region toward the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Pattern becomes more active late in the week with subtropical jet lifting north as several waves move near/south of the region. Depending on how these waves interact with extent of cold air in place, and how close they approach from the west will determine the potential for snow vs mixed precipitation. Ensemble members are pretty much all over the board with potential for impacts from this system for the weekend.

AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Today...VFR southern terminals. MVFR northern terminals, improving to VFR early this evening. NW winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts early, decreasing throughout the afternoon.

Tonight...VFR southern terminals. VFR early northern terminals with a 60% chance of MVFR developing after midnight. Greatest chance is at PQI and CAR. Winds light and variable.

Monday...VFR southern terminals. Northern terminals likely to see a mix of MVFR and VFR with the greatest chance for MVFR at PQI/CAR/FVE. Winds light and variable early, then becoming SE around 5 kts.

Monday night...MVFR southern terminals. MVFR/IFR northern terminals with the best chance for IFR at PQI/CAR/FVE in light snow showers. S winds around 5 kts.

Tuesday...MVFR/IFR north in snow showers. VFR, temp MVFR, Downeast terminals. S 5-10kts.

Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR north in snow showers and low cigs, improving to VFR late. MVFR Downeast improving to VFR late evening. S 5-10kts becoming W late.

Wednesday...VFR. NW 5-10kts.

Wednesday night...VFR north with low potential for MVFR Downeast terminals in light snow late. NNW 5-10kts.

Thursday...VFR. NW 5-10kts.

MARINE

Winds decrease below small craft advisory criteria on the outer waters this afternoon. Winds and seas remain below criteria on all waters tonight through Monday night.

Conditions look to remain below small craft levels through Tuesday, with seas becoming marginal over the outer waters in southeasterly swell Tuesday evening. North winds Wednesday night might approach marginal small craft conditions on the outer waters.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.