textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 350 AM Update: Dense Fog Advisory now in place for most of the northern half of the forecast area through the early morning hours with many observations of visibility of a quarter mile or less, especially within river valleys

- Added areas of fog this morning and patchy fog tonight with favorable radiational fog conditions

KEY MESSAGES

1) The next round of rain showers is expected for the end of the week, though drought relief is unlikely.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...The next round of rain showers is expected for the end of the week, though drought relief is unlikely.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure to the south will build through mid-week, bringing dry conditions until late week. Low pressure to the northwest in Canada tracks eastward, bringing a relatively weak cold front over the state on Friday. Pressure gradient between the high pressure and the approaching low could help produce some breezy southwest winds Thursday afternoon into Friday.

Based on global models, PWATs are roughly 1.25-1.75 inches, with higher values concentrated around the central and Downeast regions. Models currently hint at precipitation generally moving in late Thursday night from the northwest, and moving to the southeast by Friday mid-morning to afternoon. There is still some model discrepancies in the exact timing, however. Global ensembles generally keep precipitation totals low (under a third of an inch). Some members, though, do show a narrow band of enhanced precipitation, near an inch, across the state, though location is highly uncertain. Continue to monitor the forecast for updates, as models begin to get a better handle on the atmospheric set up.

AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Early this morning...MVFR/VFR for Downeast terminals as low cigs gradually exit south and east, while IFR/LIFR at northern terminals in fog. Winds light and variable.

Today - Tonight...Conditions improving to VFR across all terminals, with light and variable winds. Conditions may dip back to MVFR/IFR in patchy fog overnight tonight.

Thursday...VFR across all terminals. Light winds shift SW and increase to 5 to 10 kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts by the afternoon.

Thursday night-Friday night...MVFR or lower possible in rain showers. Light and variable winds. LLWS possible Friday afternoon/evening.

Saturday-Sunday...VFR. NW winds G15-20KT possible Saturday.

MARINE

Winds light and variable, becoming WSW tonight and remaining under 20 kt through Friday night. Chance for rain Friday into Friday night, which could limit visibility. Coastal-25nm, and 25nm-60nm zones could have seas approach 5 ft late Friday night.

From Saturday-Sunday, NNW winds over the waters out to 60nm should be 15 kt or less and seas 4 ft or less.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MEZ001-002- 004>006. MARINE...None.