textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Decreased high temperatures on Wednesday due to increased cloud cover. - Increased rainfall chances slightly on Friday morning in northern Maine due to a trough passing the region. - Decreased rainfall chances overall on Saturday-Saturday night due to lack of agreement in ensemble models and latest deterministic model runs coming in drier.

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance for rain showers by later this week, though little to no drought improvement anticipated.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Chance for rain showers by later this week, though little to no drought improvement anticipated.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A low pressure system centered over Hudson Bay will move eastward across Quebec on Thursday, dragging a cold front through New England into the evening and overnight hours. Some deterministic models indicate a weak low pressure develops along this front in coastal Maine, though models diverge on the exact speed and strength of this feature. Highest chance of precipitation will be along the coast Thursday evening and night where most moisture will be located, up to 45-75% chance, while dry air and lack of strong forcing should win out in northern Maine with only 5-30% chance. Any showers will be light, with only a trace to 0.15 inches anticipated, though drizzle and mist are also possible as a marine layer sets up along the coast. The area remains under D0-D2 (abnormally dry to severe drought) conditions, and the light rain showers or drizzle later this week are not expected to improve this. However, the cold front should result in cold air advection on Friday to usher in a period of cooler temperatures into the weekend as the low pressure heads into the Canadian maritimes. Friday could also be breezy across the forecast area with gusts 25-35 mph possible, and a few light showers are possible (10-35% chance) on Friday morning across northern Maine as a trough moves through.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Rest of Today...VFR. Light and variable winds.

Tonight...Mainly VFR for all terminals. Then MVFR/IFR in patchy fog for HUL/BGR/BHB after midnight. Light and variable winds.

Wednesday...VFR. SSW winds 5-15 kts, becoming W winds in the afternoon.

Wed night...Mainly VFR, then lowering to MVFR/IFR in patchy fog late. Light and variable winds.

Thursday-Thu night...MVFR/IFR in rain showers, especially for southern terminals. Light and variable winds.

Friday-Saturday...VFR. NW winds 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. Decreasing Fri night to 5-10 kts through Saturday.

Sunday...Uncertainty in the track and timing of possible rain event (20% confidence).

MARINE

Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Sunday, though winds are expected to be breezy Friday night with gusts up to 20 kts. Seas 1-2 ft for intercoastal and coastal waters, 3-4 ft for outer waters.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.