textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Anomalously warm temperatures Thursday and Friday could approach daily record highs.

2) Additional rainfall expected Friday into the weekend, though amounts are still uncertain. The rainfall could help provide some drought relief.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Anomalously warm temperatures Thursday and Friday could approach daily record highs.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... As a warm front lifts off to the north, the entire region has become positioned within the warm sector of an approaching low pressure system. Despite mostly cloudy skies, strong S/SW flow should advect anomalously warm temperatures into the area. Temperatures are expected to reach the 60s over most, if not all, of the area with the Bangor region likely to approach 70. For reference, this is about 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Some uncertainty remains as to exactly how high temperatures will get as a result of persistent cloud cover but any areas that stay more clear will be even warmer, possibly reaching 70.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Additional rainfall expected Friday into the weekend, though amounts are still uncertain. The rainfall could help provide some drought relief.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... An upper low approaching from the Great Lakes Friday will help support a developing coastal low, though the exact locations of the developing low is still uncertain. The better chances of rain later Friday will occur across Downeast area. The upper low moves to the eastern Great Lakes Friday night while the surface low lifts toward the Gulf of Maine. Steadier rain should begin to expand northward across the region Friday night. Uncertainty then develops Saturday into Sunday regarding the track of the surface low. A track closer to the Downeast coast would bring better rain chances to the entire forecast area. A track across the Gulf of Maine to Nova Scotia would keep the better rain chances across Downeast areas, with lesser rain totals northward across the remainder of the forecast area. Precipitation totals Friday through Sunday will be dependent on the eventual track of the low. A chance of rain showers could persist into Monday with an upper level disturbance crossing the region.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through Tonight...VFR southern terminals. IFR/LIFR northern terminals with light rain early and a 20% chance of fog lingering through the night. A brief period of LLWS at PQI/CAR/FVE before 0z this evening, then light and variable winds overnight.

Thursday...Gradual improvement to MVFR/VFR around mid-day, before decreasing to MVFR in the afternoon with light rain showers. S winds 5 to 10 kts.

Thursday Night...MVFR/IFR, in rain. S/SW winds 5-10 kts. LLWS possible.

Friday...MVFR/IFR. A chance of rain, particularly Downeast. South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming variable.

Friday night through Saturday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Rain. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Rain. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Rain tapering to showers. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots.

Sunday night...VFR/MVFR. A chance of rain showers, mostly early. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming west.

Monday... VFR/MVFR. A chance of rain showers. Northwest/west winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

MARINE

Below small craft advisory criteria on all waters through Thursday. Near SCA winds and seas on the coastal waters Thursday evening through early Friday with a 20% chance of reaching criteria.

Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Friday through Saturday. Rain and patchy fog Friday through Saturday.

CLIMATE

Persistent warm air advection into the forecast area over the next two days will lead to temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal, and temperatures could approach daily record highs.

Thursday, November 5 CAR: Record 73 set in 2022... Forecast 63 HUL: Record 70 set in 2022... Forecast 64 MLT: Record 72 set in 2022... Forecast 64 BGR: Record 73 set in 2022... Forecast 67

Friday, November 6 CAR: Record 72 set in 2024... Forecast 64 HUL: Record 71 set in 2022... Forecast 66 MLT: Record 72 set in 2024... Forecast 66 BGR: Record 75 set in 2024... Forecast 67

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.