textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- PoPs extended a few more hours through the early morning as trough stalls across Washington county, while the approaching cold front to the north begins frontolysis and patchy fog may return across the north

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry weather persists through the middle of the week. Thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening, some of which may be strong with gusty winds and small hail.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather persists through the middle of the week. Thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon and evening, some of which may be strong with gusty winds and small hail.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure persists through the middle of the week with mostly dry weather and seasonable temperatures. Fog is possible each morning with any lingering low level moisture but will be patchy in nature and quickly dissipate around daybreak.

A cold front crosses the area Friday on the leading edge of a full latitude trough pushing into the region, with the added support of a northern stream shortwave pushing through the trough around that time. With the potential for 500-1500 J/kg of instability, 25-35KT of bulk shear and elongated, straight hodographs, there is a risk of some locally strong thunderstorms ahead of the front Friday afternoon, with the main threat expected to be strong gusty winds. The greatest chance for storms is likely to be concentrated over northern and central areas while more southern areas are likely to remain too stable due to southerly flow bringing in marine air. The inland extent of the marine layer will be key to watch for determining how far south the severe threat extends.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Today...Brief IFR possible at terminals which begin the day with fog, but will quickly improve to VFR by 13z. Light NW winds around 5 kts.

Tonight...Mostly VFR across all terminals with light and variable winds. A return of vis degradation due to fog is possible, but confidence in any one terminal seeing BR/FG is low as the area dries out. Greatest chance for FG is probably at Washington County terminals.

Thursday...VFR across all terminals. S winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts.

Thursday night...VFR, becoming MVFR/IFR with -SHRA and fog developing. Greatest chance for fog at southern terminals. S winds 5-10kt. LLWS possible.

Friday...MVFR/IFR in showers and thunderstorms. S winds 5-10kt with gusts up to 20kt possible.

Friday night...Improving to VFR. Light and variable winds.

Saturday...VFR. W/NW winds 5-10kt.

Saturday night...VFR. Light and variable winds.

Sunday...VFR. SW winds 5 to 10 kts.

MARINE

Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today through Sunday. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy/areas of fog this morning through Thursday night. Thunderstorms possible Friday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for MEZ030. MARINE...None.