textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Refreshed discussion for this morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry through Monday with worsening drought conditions. Cool today but becoming warmer Monday.

2) Rain chances return Monday night and remain through the rest of the week, but very low confidence on whether or not there will be notable drought relief.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry through Monday with worsening drought conditions. Cool today but becoming warmer Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Some areas did see beneficial rain Friday into Friday night, with up to about a third of an inch from Clayton lake southeast to Sherman and Topsfield. Other areas generally got a tenth of an inch or less. Measurable rain has come to an end, and cooler/drier air has moved in.

Dry conditions a virtual certainty today, Sunday, and Monday. High pressure will be centered to our south, so it will remain a bit breezy mainly during the day each day. There will be a pronounced warming trend today through Monday. Highs today will range from around 40 in the far north to the upper 40s Downeast. However, Monday we will see temperatures soaring to around 60 in the north and 65 Downeast.

For those venturing outside this (Halloween) evening, there is high confidence in no precipitation, but it will be cool, with temperatures at sunset in the mid to upper 30s north, and low 40s Bangor/Downeast. By 9pm, it will fall to the low 30s north and mid to upper 30s Bangor/Downeast. Just a light breeze.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances return Monday night and remain through the rest of the week, but very low confidence on whether or not there will be notable drought relief.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Late Monday night into Tuesday, a 15-30 percent chance of precipitation returns, best shot in the northern areas. If this precipitation occurs Monday night/Tuesday, it would likely be a quarter inch or less. Will have to keep an eye on a potential backdoor cold front moving in from the northeast at the same time. Heading into Tuesday night, Wednesday, and beyond, forecast confidence drops precipitously. Above average temperatures are likely Wednesday/Thursday, but there is very low confidence in whether or not there will be any rain. Some ensembles/models have decent rain, while others have none. Heading toward Thursday night/Friday, there is a little better signal for a stronger low pressure or cold front and a decent rain event. That said, confidence is still very low, as while most models have measurable rain at some point late Thursday through Friday, there is large variation in how much.

AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Today: VFR with NW wind 10-15 kts. Intermittent MVFR cigs possible until 12z at CAR/FVE/GNR.

Saturday night-Monday: VFR conditions for all terminals. W wind 5-10 kts with gusts to 15 kts during the daytime. LLWS possible Sunday night.

Monday night-Tuesday: Chance of MVFR in any rain at northern terminals, otherwise VFR.

Tuesday night-Wednesday: VFR, with a chance of MVFR.

MARINE

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until mid afternoon. Winds for the intercoastal and coastal waters are expected to reach 25-30 kt through this period with seas 1-4 ft. Over the waters 25-60nm a few NW gusts into this morning may approach 35kt but prolonged Gales are not expected. Seas 4-6 ft.

For the coastal waters, other than possibly some gusts to around 25 kt on the coastal ocean waters Sunday night, sustained winds of 15 kt or less and seas of 4 ft or less are forecast Sunday- Wednesday. For the outer waters sustained winds of 20 kt or less and seas of 5 ft or less are forecast during the same time frame.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ050>052.