textproduct: Caribou

SYNOPSIS

A warm front approaches An occluded front will approach on Wednesday and lift north of the area Wednesday night. Low pressure will track across southern Quebec Thursday and Thursday night, then into the northeastern Canadian Maritimes on Friday. High pressure builds in from the west Friday night and Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Update... Satellite shows cloudy skies across the forecast area at this hour. Precipitation will expand north later tonight, mainly in the form of rain across the Bangor region and Downeast Maine. Can't totally rule out a bit of light freezing rain across the far north toward Wednesday morning. But it would be short lived before it changes quickly to rain. No changes to current forecast at this hour.

See updated aviation section.

previous discussion

Key Messages -Rain moves in late tonight -May see very brief freezing rain late tonight over central areas with minimal impacts

The triple point of the occlusion will start to move into the region tonight. The question remains the same, how far north will the precip be able to progress with the dry mid/low levels. The models remain the same with keeping all precip out of the north of the night. Rain will move into the south after midnight with snow and mixed freezing rain in the higher terrain. The freezing rain is expected to be short lived as the warm temps surge north through the night. For this update, the CAD will have cooler temps as well as the north, but the precip type is expected to stay mainly liquid with some snow working into the cooler areas. Upper air model sounding indicate the column moistening in the lower levels by the time the warmer air moves in. By Wednesday, the entire region will see rain with the north seeing rain in the late morning to early afternoon. By Wednesday night, the rain will gradually move off to the north. The cold airmass behind the system will move into the North Woods bring temps to just below freezing, thus some snow is possible in this area.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Thursday... The precipitation exits Maine off to the northeast by mid-morning Thursday. Looks like it will end as a cold rain for most places, except from around Moosehead Lake north into the North Woods, where a quick changeover to snow is possible. Even if this does occur, thinking snow accumulation will be around an inch tops. Otherwise, breezy from the west and partly/mostly cloudy Thursday, with highs around 40 north and the mid 40s to low 50s Downeast.

Thursday Night and Friday... A large cutoff vertically stacked cutoff low pressure approaches from the west Thursday night and passes just north of us during the day Friday. This puts us in a favorable setup for snow showers and possibly snow squalls during the day Friday with an unstable airmass, steep low-level lapse rates, and breezy conditions. Think that the best shot at squalls will be in NE portions of the area from about Millinocket NE. One slightly limiting factor is that there isn't a well-defined Arctic front, so expect more of open cellular convection. Also, temperatures outside of showers will be in the mid 30s, so it'll be a touch mild, though any showers should bring temps down to near or just below freezing at least temporarily. Additionally, winds look a bit marginal with most gusts around 20-25 mph, so will need some heavier showers to help generate any gusts around 30 mph (squall criteria).

Models are in good agreement through Friday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

High pressure builds in toward Saturday night. Saturday night could be quite cold if the timing of the high pressure works out right. We are going for teens to low 20s, but could foresee some places getting to the single digits.

Next concern is a likely system for late Sunday and Sunday night. Most models have this coming from a surface low passing to the north of the area, meaning we will be susceptible to warm advection and snow changing to rain. Still lots of uncertainty on precipitation amounts and how much of the area gets rain vs snow, but chances favor mostly rain for about the southern half of the area, with a change from snow to rain possible in the north too. Did go a bit warmer than NBM for the late Sunday to early Monday period, and brought rain/snow mix north to Van Buren after the start as snow. Potential is there for a general 1-3 inch snow in the north, perhaps a bit more in the far north, but again, still a lot of uncertainty.

Heading into early/mid-week, the weather pattern remains active with likely more weather systems to keep an eye on under strong upper level W/SW flow, but confidence on any particular system is not there.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

NEAR TERM: VFR all terminals this evening with ceilings decreasing to MVFR then IFR for KBGR/KBHB aft 06z, then 10z to 12z for the Aroostook terminals. Widespread IFR/LIFR all terminals on Wednesday. Light and variable wind tonight, then NE 5 to 10 kt on Wednesday.

Outlook for Wednesday night...IFR. E wind 5 to 10 kt.

SHORT TERM: Thursday: Becoming VFR by 14z except for possibly at KFVE where MVFR conditions could linger through the day. W/SW winds around 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts.

Thursday night-Friday night: VFR, except for MVFR or lower possible in any snow showers at northern terminals, with the best chance for any restrictions during the day on Friday. W/SW winds gusting to 25 kts Friday.

Saturday: VFR. W winds gusting 20-25 kts.

Saturday Night: VFR. Winds becoming variable 5 kts or less.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, except MVFR possible late with rain or snow possible. S wind 10 kts.

MARINE

NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory continues through tonight and into Wednesday night. Winds will decrease by Wednesday afternoon below SCA levels and remain to Wednesday night.

SHORT TERM: Have issued a gale watch for all but the intracoastal waters for midday Thursday through Friday night, as we are looking at a prolonged period of strong W winds. Unstable airmass and steeper lapse rates should allow these winds to mix down to the surface. Seas will be 6-9 ft. The winds ease late Saturday into Saturday night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ050-051. Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning for ANZ050-051.