textproduct: Caribou

SYNOPSIS

Low pressure will approach today, cross the area tonight, and then continue into Eastern Canada on Thursday. High pressure builds across the region Friday into Saturday. Low pressure approaches Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

10:20AM UPDATE...Have hoisted a Winter Weather Advisory for Central and Southern Penobscot counties due to the concerns of a burst of accumulating snow and then brief freezing rain on top. Hi-res CAMs coming into better agreement on increased QPF, improved SLRs and a brief mix on top of a thump of snow this afternoon. Now boundary layer temperatures will increase to the point to turn the Bangor Region to Houlton/Danforth area to rain by this evening south to the coast. Given the increased totals have made adjustments to the hazards. Minor tweaks to POPs, Ptypes and intensities.

Previous Discussion...

Key Messages: *Accumulating snowfall in the north this evening *Slippery evening commute *Gusty winds Thursday, with additional snow showers across Maine

A weak upper-level shortwave crosses the area, bringing snow showers across the Downeast region this morning. Slight chance for some rain/snow mix along the immediate coast. Immediately following this shortwave, a stacked low pressure system moves in from the Great Lakes, bringing a good moisture source into Maine, alongside some warm air advection ahead of the associated warm front. Temperatures on Wednesday raise in the mid-to-upper 20s in the north, low-to-mid 30s in the interior Downeast, and low-40s along the immediate coast. Because of these warming temperatures, expecting rain during the day along the Downeast coast. Interior Downeast has precipitation beginning as snow in the morning, and then transitioning over to rain during the day. Generally, precipitation stays as snow in region north of Houlton and Greenville. There is a chance for a narrow corridor of freezing rain in the Central Highlands to Houlton region during the evening time tomorrow, but would mainly fall in areas that already had some snowfall. If freezing rain does fall, would only be about a trace to a 0.01 inch.

For snow totals with this system, they are going to heavily depend on the track of the low pressure system, which is still relatively uncertain at this time. Most models have the low tracking over New York Wednesday, but then whether the low stays north of the state, or crosses the state Wednesday night into Thursday, is the current uncertainty. What there is confidence in, however, is that there will be accumulating snowfall in the north, with heavier totals most likely in Aroostook county. Central and eastern Aroostook could see 5-8 inches of snowfall. Central Maine expecting around 3-5 inches. Overnight lows Wednesday night in the 20s in the north, and low 30s Downeast.

Thursday, low pressure system moves northeast away from the region. Could be some light snow showers in the north on the backside of the departing low, with a deformation zone setting up. High pressure to the south helps to form a tightening pressure gradient between the two pressure systems, causing some gusty winds Thursday into Friday. Maximum temperatures on Thursday in the upper 20s in the north and mid-to-upper 30s Downeast. Gusty winds persist into to the evening. Freshly fallen snow could drift or blow around during the afternoon into evening.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Intensifying low pressure lifts across the Gulf of Saint Lawrence Thursday night, with a trof extending back across northern Maine. Aloft, the supporting upper low also crosses the region. Snow showers are likely across northern areas Thursday night. Across Downeast areas, expect mostly cloudy skies along with a chance of snow showers early then partly cloudy. Winds will also begin to increase Thursday night. The system will lift toward Labrador Friday. A final disturbance rotating around the upper low will also cross the region Friday. Expect mostly cloudy skies along with a slight chance/chance of snow showers across the north and mountains Friday, with generally partly sunny skies Downeast. The tight pressure gradient between the Labrador low and high pressure across the eastern Great Lakes will support gusty west winds Friday. Winds gusts of 30 to 40 mph are expected, with locally higher gusts possible. High pressure will build toward the region Friday night with generally partly cloudy skies north, mostly clear Downeast. High pressure should then cross the region Saturday with partly sunny skies. Temperatures will be at below normal levels Friday/Saturday.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

An upper low should approach Saturday night with partly/mostly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of snow showers. The upper low should cross the region Sunday helping support a developing ocean low east of the Maritimes. Will have a chance of snow showers across the region with the upper low Sunday. Current indications are that the majority of the precipitation with the ocean low should miss the region. However, the northwest edge of the precipitation shield could clip Downeast areas with a chance of snow or snow showers. The intensifying low will exit across the Maritimes Monday with high pressure building toward the region late. Generally expect partly cloudy skies Monday, along with gusty northwest winds. An upper level disturbance could cross the region Tuesday with partly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of snow showers. Temperatures will remain at below normal levels Sunday through Tuesday.

AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

NEAR TERM: KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: VFR/MVFR conditions at northern terminals. Conditions deteriorate to MVFR/IFR as snow begins to move into the region. Periods of heavy snowfall during the afternoon into evening, where visibility could drop below a mile. Winds from the SE around 5-10 kts, shifting to the E, and to the NE. LLWS this evening into tonight. Slight chance for a brief period of FZRA at KHUL late this evening. KBGR/KBHB: MVFR/IFR conditions at southern terminals. Period of heavier snow moving through southern regions early this morning. Conditions improve to VFR/MVFR this afternoon, before dropping back to MVFR/IFR this evening in snow and rain showers. Winds from the S around 5-10 kts, shifting to the S/SW. Chance for gusts up to 25kts at KBHB this evening. Chance for LLWS this evening into tonight.

SHORT TERM:

Thursday night...MVFR/IFR north with snow showers likely. VFR/MVFR Downeast. A chance of snow showers early. West/southwest winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with a slight chance/chance of snow showers north. VFR Downeast. West winds 15 to 25 knots with gusts 30 to 35 knots.

Friday night...VFR/MVFR north. VFR Downeast. West winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots.

Saturday through Saturday night...VFR. West winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots Saturday. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots Saturday night.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest/north.

MARINE

NEAR TERM: Small Craft Advisory conditions expected today over all of the waters, and Gale conditions expected this afternoon through Thursday. Wave heights get as high at 10 ft tonight. Waves stay elevated, around 7-8 ft through Thursday. Winds from the SW today, shifting S this evening, and turning SW again early Thursday. Rain expected Wednesday into Thursday.

SHORT TERM: A Gale Warning is in effect for much of the waters, with the exception of the intra-coastal waters, Thursday night into Friday afternoon which might eventually need extending into Friday night. On the intra-coastal waters, a Gale Watch is in effect for Thursday evening into Friday afternoon with gale conditions possibly persisting into Friday night. Conditions are expected to be below small craft advisory levels on all the waters Saturday. A chance of snow showers Thursday night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM EST Thursday for MEZ001>004. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for MEZ005-006- 010-011-015-031. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050- 051. Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for ANZ052. Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for ANZ052.