textproduct: Caribou

SYNOPSIS

Weak high pressure over the region today, that then exits to the east this evening. Low pressure approaches from west tonight. Low pressure tracks east of Nova Scotia Sunday. High pressure builds across the region Monday into Tuesday. Low pressure will track north of the region Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

6:00AM Update... Updated Aviation and Marine section below.

Previous Discussion...

Key Messages: * Light snowfall tonight into tomorrow over Downeast and far north

Today, weak ridging centers over the region, as a low over the Great Lakes approaches from the west. Skies partially cloudy in the north, and clear Downeast. Daytime highs in the low-to-mid 20s, and low-30s along the coast. Occluding low pressure system brings a warm front into western portion of Maine by this evening, while a coastal low begins to trek north towards Maine. Chance for some snow showers to reach into western regions, and for some snow showers to develop over the waters. Overnight lows in the single digits in the north, mid-teens in central Maine, and low-20s Downeast. Little-to-no snowfall accumulation expected in the north with these light snow showers. Potential for quarter of an inch of snowfall along the coastline.

Sunday, occluding low continues to pass over the state, while strengthening coastal low tracks north, closer to the Gulf of Maine. Majority of the snowfall with this system will fall over the waters, but there could be some light accumulating snow along the Downeast coast, with totals being less than an inch. Mostly cloudy, with daytime highs in the low-20s in the north and upper-20s Downeast.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Surface low pressure intensifies while tracking east of Nova Scotia while the supporting upper low begins to cross the forecast area Sunday night. High pressure will remain ridged west of the region Sunday night. Will have a slight chance/chance of snow showers with the upper low Sunday night. Current indications are that the majority of the precipitation with the ocean low should miss the region. However, the northwest edge of the precipitation shield could possibly clip Downeast areas with a chance of light snow Sunday night. The upper low exits early Monday, with surface high pressure then building toward the region. Expect partly sunny skies Monday. An upper level disturbance will cross the region Monday night with partly/mostly cloudy skies. Could also have a slight chance of snow showers across mostly northwest portions of the forecast area. The upper disturbance will exit early Tuesday, leaving high pressure across the region. Expect partly sunny skies north, partly/mostly sunny Downeast, Tuesday. Temperatures will be at below normal levels Monday/Tuesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

High pressure will exit across the Maritimes Tuesday night, with a warm front approaching late. Clouds will increase Tuesday night, with also a slight chance/chance of snow showers late across northern areas. The warm front should cross the region early Wednesday with mostly cloudy skies. Will also have a chance of snow showers north, with a slight chance of snow/rain showers Downeast. A cold front should then cross Wednesday night with partly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of snow showers north, partly cloudy Downeast. High pressure will cross the region then begin to exit across the Maritimes Thursday, while a warm front lifts across the forecast area. Clouds will increase Thursday. Could also have a slight chance of snow showers across mostly northern areas late. An occluded front should cross the region Thursday night into Friday, though timing differences still exist. Warmer air will be drawn north in advance of the occlusion. Across Downeast areas, a snow/rain mix early Thursday night should transition to rain. Across northern areas, precipitation should start in the form of snow then transition to a snow/rain mix. The occluded front should cross the region early Friday, with a cold front then following. Expect rain or a rain/snow mix north early Friday, with rain Downeast. Precipitation should then transition to snow or snow showers in the wake of the cold front. Near normal, to slightly above normal, level temperatures are expected Wednesday. Slightly above normal level temperatures are expected Thursday/Friday. Temperatures could then begin to fall later Friday dependent on the eventual timing of the cold front.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

NEAR TERM: KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: Generally VFR at northern terminals, with W winds at 5-10 kts, shifting to the SE this afternoon, light and variable tonight. A few MVFR ceilings with very light flurries could move through early this morning, predominantly at KFVE/KPQI/KCAR. A few light vicinity showers possible in the evening at KFVE/KCAR/KPQI. Ceilings begin to drop later tonight to MVFR/IFR levels.

KBGR/KBHB: VFR at southern terminals, with W/SW winds at 5-10 kts, shifting to the S this afternoon at KBGR. A few light vicinity showers possible in the evening at KBGR, and light snow showers at KBHB. Ceilings begin to drop later tonight to MVFR levels.

SHORT TERM:

Sunday night...VFR/MVFR. A slight chance of snow showers north, with a slight chance of snow Downeast. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Monday...Occasional MVFR possible early north. Otherwise, VFR. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots.

Monday night through Tuesday...VFR/MVFR north. A slight chance of snow showers north Monday night through early Tuesday. VFR Downeast. Northwest/west winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots Monday night. Southwest/west winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots Tuesday.

Tuesday night...Across northern areas, VFR early then VFR/MVFR with a slight chance of snow showers. VFR Downeast. Southwest/south winds 5 to 10 knots.

Wednesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of snow showers north. A slight chance of snow/rain showers Downeast. South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots.

MARINE

NEAR TERM: Small Craft Advisory for the outer-waters extended to 10AM this morning, with elevated seas still being reported. Lull in conditions this afternoon, as winds fall below criteria, before ramping back up to Small Craft conditions over the outer waters later this evening into tonight. Wave heights will gradually relax back to 5 ft or below by this afternoon. Winds from the W this morning, shifting to the SW by this afternoon, and to the N by tomorrow. Potential for some light rain/snow mix showers this evening, and then snow showers tomorrow.

SHORT TERM: Gale conditions expected Sunday night into Monday. Small craft advisory conditions Monday night. Conditions then below small craft advisory levels Tuesday. Gale conditions then possible later Tuesday night into Wednesday. A chance of snow Sunday night. Light freezing spray Sunday night into early Monday, then again Monday night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ050- 051.