textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Increased confidence in rain through the end of the week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Another round of fog tonight ahead of the system moving along the coast bringing moderate to heavy rainfall Downeast.

2) Continued unsettled Wednesday and Thursday, with the next system approaching Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Another round of fog tonight ahead of the system moving along the coast bringing moderate to heavy rainfall Downeast.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Continued warm and humid over the area tonight. This will bring another round of fog to the region, some of it may be locally dense at times. Showers and isolated storms have developed this afternoon across nwrn zones. Expect these to continue thru sunset. As of 17z low pressure was located over southern Ohio and heading northeast. Recent guidance has settle on low track just off of the Downeast coast Tuesday morning. This brings highest rainfall amounts confined to around the center of this low with 1-1.5 inches from the coast up through interior Downeast. 0.50 inches as far north as the I95 corridor with lesser amounts further to the north. Any wobbles offshore of the low may result in these amounts being significantly less.

At this time there does not appear to be a significant flash flood threat with FFG in this region being over 2 inches in one hour, however there remains the risk across Downeast Maine and the Bangor Region for the minor flooding of known poor drainage areas and other flood prone locations with the heaviest rainfall from late tonight into early Tuesday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued unsettled Wednesday and Thursday, with the next system approaching Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... As an upper level low near the Great Lakes Wednesday makes its way into the region by Friday, there will be showers, and the possibility of thunderstorms, Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. Shortwave energy ahead of the low will create the unsettled weather for midweek. Modest CAPE and mid level lapse rates could support some pop-up thunderstorms, mainly in the north, though a lack of shear should limit thunderstorm strength. The upper level low enters the region Friday morning bringing more widespread rain showers, though track and timing are uncertain. Extended models are in better agreement with the track of the low, however the intensity is still uncertain. Current precip estimates are around 0.5 inches, with up to 1 in in some places in heavier showers.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

This afternoon through this evening...VFR with low chance for -tsra at FVE, CAR and PQI. S winds 5-10kts.

Tonight...Conditions deteriorate to MVFR by midnight before rapidly falling to IFR. At BHB conditions likely to be IFR after 00z and drop further to LIFR after 02z. Steady rain moves into BHB and BGR after 04z. Aroostook terminals should not see -shra until 12z Tuesday. SE winds 5-10kts.

Tuesday...IFR improving to MVFR late. SE winds 5-10kts becoming N 5kts late.

Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR in fog at all terminals. Light NW winds.

Wednesday-Wednesday night: VFR south, MVFR/IFR north in rain showers and possible TS. NW winds 5-10 kt. Becoming light and variable overnight.

Thursday: VFR south, MVFR/IFR north in rain showers and possible TS. S/SE winds 5-10 kt, becoming light overnight.

Friday-Saturday: MVFR/IFR in showers and possible TS. S winds 5-10 kts. Then NW on Saturday.

MARINE

Winds remain aob 25kts through late tonight, then increase from the south through Tuesday afternoon. May see marginal SCA for waters out to 25NM Tuesday morning. Winds remain below small craft levels all waters through Tuesday night. Seas climb above 5ft out through 60NM Tuesday morning before dropping Tuesday evening. Fog will reduce visibilities over the waters tonight and again Tuesday night.

Marginal SCA winds and seas on the coastal waters early Tuesday, then below SCA criteria on all waters through Friday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.