textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 7:29PM UPDATE for the 00z TAFs. See the aviation section below...

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cool temperatures will continue through the weekend, with areas of frost developing over much of the area Saturday night.

2) Thunderstorms possible over west/central Maine Sunday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cool temperatures will continue through the weekend, with areas of frost developing over much of the area Saturday night.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... An upper level trough remains over the area heading into this weekend, keeping a cool air mass over the forecast area. Tonight, generally overcast skies and cool, with lows in the mid to upper 30s throughout the forecast area. A low pressure system passing west of the CWA will contain wind and rain, but only skirt our CWA border. Greenville down through Bangor may see some light rain showers on the outskirts of this low, and winds will become breezy into the day on Saturday, but most of the impacts will remain outside our area. Some areas of frost may develop tonight in the North Woods.

Gusty winds will continue through the day on Saturday with gusts to around 25 mph in the Downeast region. Under mostly cloudy to overcast skies and alongside these gusty winds, high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s could feel chilly. By Saturday night, winds will decrease, and skies could begin to clear out, developing an efficient radiational cooling environment and allowing for temperatures to fall into the mid 30s across the north and upper 30s Downeast. This could lead to areas, maybe even widespread frost across the north. Plan to protect any sensitive vegetation under these conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Thunderstorms possible over west/central Maine Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Persistent upper level low pressure remains across the area Sunday with a wave of low pressure expected to pass through the western part of our area which should provide some lift favorable for storm development in the afternoon. Instability is not impressive with only a few hundred J/kg of CAPE present but relatively cold air aloft should favor steep mid-level lapse rates which could support a few thunderstorms. Not currently expecting any severe thunderstorms due to the modest instability and wind shear. The greatest chance for storms is over the North Woods and Piscataquis County.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

00z TAF UPDATE... Tonight...VFR at FVE, CAR. VFR lowering to MVFR late at PQI and HUL. BGR, BHB VFR lowering to MVFR after 06Z, with light rain possible early at BGR. Winds light and variable around 5 kt, becoming NE 5 to 10 kt, and NE 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt Downeast late.

Saturday...MVFR improving to VFR in the afternoon at HUL, BGR, and BHB. VFR at FVE, CAR, except for MVFR early at PQI. NE winds around 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts north. NE winds 15 kts with gusts 25 to 30 kts Downeast, slowly diminishing late in the afternoon.

Previous Discussion... Saturday night...VFR conditions return across all terminals, with winds decreasing, becoming light and variable overnight.

Sunday...VFR with brief MVFR also possible in isolated rain showers. Light and variable winds around 5 kts.

Sunday night...MVFR with a slight chance of IFR at southern terminals in rain showers. Light and variable winds.

Monday...VFR/MVFR in scattered rain showers with the best chance for MVFR at southern terminals. S/SE winds 5 to 10 kts southern terminals, light and variable northern terminals.

Monday night...VFR/MVFR in isolated rain showers, especially at northern terminals. Light SW winds.

Tuesday...MVFR/IFR in possible rain showers. NE winds 5-10 kts.

Tuesday night...Mainly VFR. N/NE winds around 5 kts.

Wednesday...VFR northern terminals, MVFR southern terminals with scattered rain showers. NE winds 5 to 10 kts.

MARINE

Winds quickly increase overnight tonight as a low pressure system approaches from the NW and crosses the waters tonight through the day on Saturday. Gusts will approach 30 to 40 kts, and a gale warning remains in place for all but the intracoastal waters. Seas will increase to around 4 to 8 ft around this system. Conditions will improve late Saturday into Saturday night, with all waters falling below small craft advisory criteria.

Winds and seas below small craft advisory criteria through Tuesday night. Seas increase above small craft criteria on the coastal waters early Wednesday morning.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 5 AM to 11 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 11 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ052. Gale Warning from 3 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ080-081.