textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Frost is likely tonight. Warm temperatures and breezy winds Sunday before the next rain chances to start the work week.

2) An area of precipitation will move through Monday night into Tuesday and bring a chance for wintry precipitation to central and northern parts of the forecast area.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Strong high pressure will slide off the coast tonight, but still should keep things mostly clear and calm. The remnants of Hurricane Isaias lift into the OH Valley on Sunday with moisture funneling up into southern areas late Sunday night into Monday morning.

Strong radiational cooling is forecast tonight. The Downeast zones will see plenty of frost and the advisories look good with no changes anticipated.

Breezy southwest winds will allow some warmer air to funnel into the area Sunday into Monday. Highs will top out in the 60s both days, some 3-8 degrees above normal.

As the system moves off the southern New England coast, it could bring a chance of showers for the Downeast coast late Sunday night into Monday. However a new, strong high pressure will be building across Quebec and will try and suppress rain chances. At this time ensembles indicate a high PoP/low QPF threat for just the Downeast coastline and otherwise dry for the forecast area. Then as a frontal boundary sags into the area ahead of that high pressure showers may develop and provide a better chance at rain showers.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

A separate low pressure develops over the Great Lakes Monday night as a trough deepens behind the departing tropical remnants. This will bring a much better chance of rain early- mid next week. Confidence remains low, but various models have also some chilly 925 mb temps across the forecast area. This will be especially true as the bulk of the forcing pushes into the central highlands and North Woods. There could be enough cold air and latent cooling from melting to lead to light snow and some accumulations. Watch this space.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through tonight...VFR. West/northwest winds becoming light and variable.

Sunday and Sunday night...VFR. Winds from the south/southwest at 10-15 kts gusting up to 25 kts.

Monday and Monday night...VFR/MVFR for a chance of scattered showers throughout the day. Higher chances for rain for Downeast and northern terminals. WSW winds at 5-10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts. Winds shift to the north Monday afternoon, and east by Monday night.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR for scattered showers across the area. SE/S winds at 5-10 gusting up to 20 kts.

Wednesday...MVFR/VFR with possibly isolated to scattered showers. N winds 5-15kts.

MARINE

Wind and seas could reach marginal small craft advisory conditions Sunday afternoon through early Monday as winds turn southerly but should be brief and/or not widespread enough for headlines. Winds/seas will be below small craft levels Monday afternoon and night. Seas will reach small craft levels Tuesday through the middle of the week. Rain possible Monday and Tuesday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Sunday for MEZ016-017-029-030. MARINE...None.