textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Increased confidence in a warming trend through the end of the week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A chance of showers Downeast on Tuesday. Otherwise, dry through Wednesday.

2) Increasing heat and humidity mid to late week, with a chance of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A chance of showers Downeast on Tuesday. Otherwise, dry through Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure on Tuesday moves through southern New England. Models indicate that this system should stay to our south, with maybe some stray showers moving along the Downeast coastline. Showers would stay over the region from Tuesday afternoon through just after midnight Tuesday night. While models are quite divided on whether or not precipitation reaches us the greatest chance for precipitation would be areas just along the coast and some of the outer islands. If precipitation makes it that far north, would see less than 0.1 inches of rain accumulation.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Increasing heat and humidity mid to late week, with a chance of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Wednesday to Friday will be the warmest days this week. We are not looking at heat to the levels we saw a few days ago, as heat indices are expected to peak roughly 10F below what we saw. Still, these temperatures will be well above normal and uncomfortable for most people. Wednesday will features highs generally in the low to mid 80s, with perhaps a few upper 80s in the north. The air will be relatively dry with dewpoints in the 50s, so heat indices Wednesday won't be any higher than the temperatures. Heading into Thursday, temperatures look about the same or a touch cooler than Wednesday over the north, but a bit warmer than Wednesday Downeast. Highs over interior Downeast and into the Bangor region should be around 90 Thursday. Dewpoints will also be creeping up the low 60s, which is a bit muggy but too bad. Heat indices Thursday won't be much different than the temperatures. Then on Friday, cooler, drier air works into the north behind a cold front, while Downeast may be just a touch less hot, but there is some uncertainty based on how quickly the cold front can move through.

Wednesday looks dry, but the possibility of storms exists Thursday and Friday. Tentatively, it looks like the greater threat of storms on Thursday is north of Bangor, while on Friday, the threat shifts more toward areas from Bangor to the coast. It's possible the front will move through fast enough to where any storms are south of the area Friday. For Thursday and/or Friday, this doesn't look like a particularly potent setup for severe thunderstorms, but we can't rule out an isolated strong/severe storm, especially if the forcing can align with daytime heating either Thursday or Friday.

The weekend looks dry with seasonable temperatures.

AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Tonight...VFR northern terminals except for possible patchy fog. Likely IFR or lower at BHB in fog and low clouds. 20 percent chance of IFR conditions reaching BGR. Light and variable winds.

Tuesday...VFR all terminals except 50 percent chance of MVFR or lower cigs at BHB with light rain showers. S winds around 5 kts.

Tuesday night...VFR northern terminals except for some patchy fog. Possible rain showers and MVFR cigs at BHB with a low chance of MVFR cigs at BGR. Light and variable winds.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR. SW winds 5-10kts.

Wednesday Night...Mainly VFR, though patchy valley fog is possible. SW winds 5 kts or less.

Thursday...VFR. MVFR possible Aroostook terminals in showers and possible -tsra. SW winds around 10 kts.

Thursday Night-Friday...VFR/MVFR in showers and tstms. W winds 5kts becoming NW 5-15kts Friday morning.

Friday Night and Saturday...VFR. NW wind 5-10 kts.

MARINE

Winds and seas below SCA criteria through Tuesday night. Seas could reach 5 ft (about a 50 percent chance) during the day Wednesday mainly from 25-60 NM. Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, there is about a 50 percent chances of SW winds reaching 25 kts or seas reaching 5 ft ahead of a cold front.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.