textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 630 PM Update to aviation section below with issuance of the 00z TAFs

- Upgraded the Gale Watch to a Small Craft Advisory for the Coastal Waters from the Downeast coast out 25nm. Upgraded the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning for the Waters 25-60nm offshore. Additionally issued a Small Craft Advisory for the Intra- Coastal Waters.

- Lowered POPs significantly for Friday as confidence increases the low will pass further offshore of the Downeast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Confidence for impacts from the coastal storm tonight into Friday has significantly decreased. However, uncertainty still exists.

2) There is the potential for snow showers across the North on Saturday, with accumulation possible across higher elevations.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Confidence for impacts from the coastal storm tonight into Friday has significantly decreased. However, uncertainty still exists.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Models are in better agreement regarding a more southerly track for the coastal low, which will diminish potential impacts across the forecast area. Low pressure will move from the Mid-Atlantic region toward southern New England this evening. The low will track south of the Gulf of Maine tonight, with high pressure centered northwest of Maine. The northern edge of the precipitation shield will reach Downeast areas tonight, though amounts are still uncertain. Precipitation should start in the form of a rain/snow mix, then generally transition to mostly light snow overnight. However, a rain/snow mix could persist along the immediate Downeast coast. Snow accumulations across Downeast areas are generally expected to be around a half inch or less overnight into the AM. Not expecting much impacts as road surface temperatures are warm so any accumulations will be on grassy colder surfaces. The system exits southeast of Nova Scotia Friday, though how rapidly precipitation diminishes is uncertain. Additional minor snow accumulations are possible early Friday before precipitation diminishes and transitions back to rain. Additional uncertainty exists with very dry boundary layer which means precipitation tonight may take awhile to reach the ground with hours of Virga likely.

KEY MESSAGE 2...There is the potential for snow showers across the North Saturday, with accumulation possible across higher elevations.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A closed upper level low sinks south into Northern Maine on Saturday. This will bring isolated to scattered snow showers across the North. There is a chance for accumulating snow across the higher elevations, most likely only a few tenths of an inch, however a few stronger snow showers producing a quick inch or two of snow at elevations above 1000 ft cannot be completely ruled out. If this occurs, travel could be locally hazardous there especially in locations like Route 11 north of Ashland.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

00z Update: Improved BHB TAF to low end VFR overnight with dry air holding in place. Slight chance remains for MVFR as showers move through the area, but most likely category change would be in ceilings, not vis, and only brief as precipitation brushes the area, lacking the moisture support to bring showers all the way to the surface.

Tonight...Across northern areas, VFR. Lowering cigs at BGR tonight but likely to remain VFR. BHB is VFR early then lowering towards MVFR with a chance of snow and rain. North/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots.

Friday...Across northern areas, VFR. Across Downeast areas, MVFR/IFR occasional LIFR with snow and rain early. VFR/MVFR late. North/northeast winds 10 to 20 knots.

Friday night-Saturday...MVFR or lower possible at Northern Terminals in any snow showers (rain/snow showers Saturday afternoon). Highly likely VFR at southern terminals with a very low chance of MVFR or lower. NE winds G15-20KT possible at southern terminals Friday night.

Saturday night...MVFR possible in any snow showers.

Sunday-Monday...VFR, with possible exception of a period of MVFR possible in any lingering snow showers on Sunday at northern terminals. NW winds G15-20KT possible Monday.

Tuesday...VFR. W winds 5-15KT.

MARINE

Winds/seas below SCA through this evening. Winds rapidly increase this evening as low pressure tracks south of the waters. Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 1AM-10PM Friday for NE winds 10-20kt with gusts up to 30kt. Seas 3-6ft mainly on the Coastal Waters and 2-4ft on Intra-Coastal Waters. On the Waters 25-60nm a Gale Warning goes in effect from 4AM-1PM Friday. NE winds 20-25kt with gusts up to 35kt and seas 5-8ft. Rain may reduce vsby at times tonight into Friday PM. Winds fall below SCA conditions Friday night then seas below SCA by Saturday PM. Isolated to scattered rain showers remain possible this weekend especially over the 25-60nm Waters. Next chance of SCA conditions Sun PM into Mon AM.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM EST Friday for ANZ050>052. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ080-081.