textproduct: Caribou

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will cross the region through early Friday. An occluded front will cross Friday night then exit across the Maritimes Saturday as low pressure tracks south of the region. High pressure crosses the area on Sunday. Weak low pressure will cross the region on Monday followed by high pressure building in for Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Key Messages *Cold tonight *Light snow showers over the north and isolated rain showers south Friday

High pressure currently centered over the area is expected to gradually slide east tonight while clouds ahead of an approaching occluded front move into the area. Below normal temperatures tonight in the low 20s.

Dry conditions start out on Friday before precipitation ahead of the occluded front begins to move into the area from the west after noon. Precipitation overspreads much of northern and central Maine by Friday evening. Expect mostly snow showers north of the Katahdin region, scattered rain and snow showers over the Central Highlands, and just a few isolated rain showers in the Bangor and Downeast areas. Where exactly the rain/snow line sets up will depend on how much warm air advection occurs in the southerly flow ahead of the front. Overall, due to the relatively marginal temperatures, SLRs are generally expected to be below 10 to 1 which will limit snow totals to a wet half inch or so at most with the highest totals farther north. Precipitation clears out by Saturday morning as drier air works its way in behind the front. Meanwhile, an offshore low will be moving south of the coast bringing a few light rain showers over the waters late Friday night.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

*Key Messages -Breezy NW winds Saturday

Precipitation clears out on Saturday with breezy winds expected as a pressure gradient develops in response to high pressure building in behind the departing low. NW winds 10-15mph with gusts 15-25mph at times. High temperatures top out in the low to mid 30s north with low 40s for Bangor region to Downeast coast. Expect some decoupling Sat night into Sunday AM to allow temperatures to fall back into the teens north to around 20F. Central Highlands to Downeast coast will fall back into the 20s. High pressure sticks around through Sunday with dry weather, mostly cloudy skies and near seasonable temperatures.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

*Key Messages -Thanksgiving Week Starts Mainly Dry & Seasonable, Good for Travel! -Pattern Turns Active Starting Midweek

Discussion... The 500mb pattern is progressive through Monday with shortwaves on Sunday night and Monday passing through the area. Sunday night expect low to mid 20s for most but upper 20s along the Downeast coast. Snow showers will develop overnight mainly across the north thanks to the shortwave. The shortwave on Monday will push east of the area and bring an end to precip across the north. The southern zones from Bangor region to the coast will likely remain completely dry Sun night into Monday given how weak this system is going to be. Highs on Monday in the mid to upper 30s north and low 40s Bangor region to the coast.

Much of Tuesday continues to look dry as a 1030mb surface high pressure builds over the area but the pattern is progressive and the next system is on its heels. Start the day in the 20s with afternoon highs in the 30s north and 40s south. In terms of Thanksgiving Week travel we are looking at good days on Monday and Tuesday

Looking ahead to mid-week, a new low lifting north from the Great Lakes will have an occlusion extending southeast to another low near Southern New England on Wednesday. This has the potential to bring an accumulating snow Tuesday night into Wednesday AM then changing to rain north. Then mainly rain for the Downeast and Bangor region into Wednesday. Currently models differ considerably on how cold this system will be and timing of precipitation. This could lead to precipitation extending into Thanksgiving Day but temperatures likely warm enough to be plain rain.

Beyond after Thanksgiving...increasingly stronger signals in the ensembles for below normal temperatures and increasingly active pattern.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

NEAR TERM:

FVE/CAR/PQI/HUL: VFR through early tonight then about a 30% chance of MVFR ceilings approximately 6z to 15z. Conditions deteriorate to MVFR/IFR with light rain/snow showers Friday afternoon and may improve to VFR/MVFR by Saturday morning. Winds light and variable through tonight becoming S 5 to 10 kts Friday and SW 5 to 10 kts Friday night.

BHB/BGR: VFR through Friday morning then MVFR and possibly briefly IFR Friday afternoon through evening with a slight chance of rain showers. Conditions improve to VFR late Friday night. Winds light and variable through tonight becoming S 5 to 10 kts Friday and SW 5 to 10 kts Friday night.

SHORT TERM: Sat...VFR south, MVFR cigs north. NW winds 5-15kt gusting 15-25kt.

Sun...VFR. W winds 5-15kt.

Mon...VFR. AM MVFR possible with -SHRA/-SHSN. W winds 5-10kt.

Tue...VFR becoming MVFR cigs late. -RA/SN develops late day. W winds 5-10kt shifting S-SW late day.

MARINE

NEAR TERM: Winds and seas below small craft advisory criteria through Friday afternoon. Winds increase to marginal SCA conditions by Friday evening. Winds decrease below SCA criteria late Friday night.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will be below SCA conditions Saturday but NW wind gusts late day into the overnight will approach 25-30kt on the coastal waters. We will need to watch how close a system is well south of the waters Monday on potential for wind gusts to SCA criteria. Otherwise expecting sub-SCA conditions through early next week.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.