textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 10 PM Update: Minor updates made to wind forecast based on current observations and trends.

- Updated Aviation section with the issuance of the 00z TAFs. Also made mention of lighter winds off-shore than previously forecast, though a few gusts to 25 kts remain possible through Sunday morning.

- Increasing confidence on a low pressure system bringing rain Wednesday night and Thursday along with some gusty winds.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showery and breezy today.

2) Rain chances remain limited through midweek, accompanied by near to below normal temperatures. The next best chance for precipitation arrives Wednesday night into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showery and breezy today.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Surface/upper lows vertically stack across the Maritimes today slowing the movement of the system. A disturbance moving around the Maritimes system will rotate across the region today. Isolated/scattered showers will persist across the region today, then diminish tonight. The Maritimes system slowly moves east Sunday. Dependent on how rapidly the Maritimes system moves, isolated/scattered showers wrapping around the system could persist across eastern portions of the forecast area early Sunday. The better chances would occur along the Maine/New Brunswick border. The pressure gradient between the Maritimes low and high pressure to the west will help support breezy conditions today and Sunday. North/northeast winds will gust up to 20 to 25 mph today and Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances remain limited through midweek, accompanied by near to below normal temperatures. The next best chance for precipitation arrives Wednesday night into Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... The low pressure system shifts to the NE and exits over the Maritimes by Monday. A large upper level ridge will progress across the region. Surface high pressure should keep clouds away Sunday night and Monday. This should result in temps in the low 40s Sunday night and upper 70s on Monday. Shortwave energy should cross the region on Tuesday bringing cloud cover, and a slight chance of isolated showers, that will reduce high temps and increase low temps. Dry conditions with below normal low temps will continue to Wednesday night. Ensembles show increasing confidence in a large closed low pressure system moving across Canada that could bring some soaking rain and gusty winds. However, significant uncertainty on the track and timing of the low exists across all deterministic models.

AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

This evening...Mostly VFR with isolated to scattered showers, where cigs could briefly drop to MVFR. NNE winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 kts early.

Tonight...VFR across all terminals. NNE winds 10 to 15 kts, becoming NNW 5 to 10 kts.

Sunday...VFR. Isolated showers possible early across eastern areas. N winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to around 20 kts, becoming NW 5 to 10 kts.

Sunday night-Monday...VFR. NNW winds 5-10 kts.

Monday night-Tuesday...VFR with possible MVFR cigs at northern terminals late Monday night, becoming VFR Tuesday. WNW winds 5-10 kts.

Wednesday...VFR in the morning, MVFR/IFR in the afternoon due to rain. S winds 5-15 kts.

MARINE

Small Craft Advisory in effect until 10 AM EDT for the coastal waters with N wind gusts to 25 kts. Wind gusts may subside through this evening before increasing once more through the night. Wind gusts on the intra- coastal waters could approach small craft advisory levels. Winds and seas should remain below SCA levels Sunday night through Wednesday. Winds are expected to be breezy from WNW for this period. Seas should remain 1-3 ft for all waters.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ050-051.