textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 8 AM Update to the Aviation section with issuance of the 12z TAFs

- 9 AM Update: Dense Fog Advisory was allowed to expire as rain is moving in, helping erode the fog. Some patchy fog may linger along the coast through the rest of the morning

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain with isolated thunderstorms today. Dense fog possible Downeast this morning.

2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms late this week. Some may be severe.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain with isolated thunderstorms today. Dense fog possible Downeast this morning.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Intensifying low pressure moves northeast across Quebec Province, along a frontal boundary, today. A pre-frontal trof will cross the region later today through early tonight. The low then tracks north of Maine tonight drawing the cold front across the region overnight through early Tuesday. Rain will develop across the region today, then persist through early tonight. Although instability will be limited, could also have isolated thunderstorms today. The rain will taper to showers in the wake of the pre-frontal trof later tonight. Could still have a slight chance/chance of showers across mostly northern areas early Tuesday with the cold front and exiting upper low. Models generally agree that the greater rain totals with this event should occur along the track of the low across Quebec province. The greatest rain totals across the forecast area should occur across northwest areas, nearest to the low track, where around an inch or more of rain is possible. However, uncertainty still exists regarding rainfall totals across the remainder of the forecast area dependent on the location and persistence of where areas of heavier rain might develop. Areas of dense fog are also possible this morning with moisture moving inland from the Gulf of Maine. The best chance for dense fog will occur across Downeast areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered showers and thunderstorms late this week. Some may be severe.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... High pressure over the area mid week weakens Thursday as upper level shortwave energy approaches from the west. Models are currently showing the potential for weak low pressure development in the area which may kick off some showers and storms along and ahead of a cold front expected to move through the area sometime Friday. While relatively far out and despite differences in timing and intensity of the cold front and upper-level energy, long range model soundings show a favorable storm environment with very warm surface temperatures contributing to somewhere between 1000 and 1500 J/kg of instability with around 30 kts of effective bulk shear. This may pose a risk for some severe storms. Additionally, global ensembles are showing total atmospheric moisture in the 95th percentile which in combination with high freezing levels and tall, skinny instability profiles may favor some heavy rainfall.

AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Today...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Rain. Isolated thunderstorms possible. Areas of dense fog this morning Downeast. South/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots. Southwesterly low level wind shear this afternoon KHUL, KBGR and KBHB.

Tonight...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, early. VFR/MVFR late. Rain tapering to showers. An isolated thunderstorm possible early. Patchy fog. South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots, becoming southwest/west. Southwesterly low level wind shear early KHUL, KBGR and KBHB.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR early, then VFR. A slight chance/chance of morning showers, mostly across northern areas. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots.

Tuesday night - Wednesday...VFR. W winds 5 to 10 kts Tuesday night, shifting to SW Wednesday.

Wednesday night-Thursday night...VFR except for possible MVFR in rain showers at southern terminals Wednesday night. Light S/SW winds.

Friday...MVFR/IFR possible in scattered rain showers and isolated T-storms. W/SW winds 5-10 kts.

MARINE

The Small Craft Advisory for the intra-coastal and coastal waters has been extended through 8 PM Tuesday. Rain today through early tonight, then tapering to showers later tonight. Isolated thunderstorms also possible today through early tonight. Areas of fog today into tonight, then patchy fog early Tuesday.

Seas decrease below small craft advisory criteria Tuesday night with generally 3-4ft seas on all waters through Friday. Winds below SCA criteria Tuesday night through Friday with generally light SW flow.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ052.