textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 1020 AM update: Adjusted precipitation chances for current trends

- Bumped up winds for today, and adding a key message for the potential of isolated power outages.

- Issued Small Craft Advisory over intra-coastals this afternoon.

- Increasing confidence in frontal timing late week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers this morning, along with gusty winds. Isolated power outages possible.

2) Patchy/areas of frost possible across northern areas tonight.

3) Chance for rain showers by late next week, though little to no drought improvement anticipated.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers this morning, along with gusty winds. Isolated power outages possible.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Cold front and an upper trough swings through the region early morning. Across northern portions of the forecast area, showers will accompany the cold front and upper level trough, gradually tapering out of the region by mid-morning. Rainfall with this system will have minimal impact on the drought.

A chance for winds gusts 25-35mph is possible today, as gusty winds could mix down to the surface. Winds increase this morning, and stay elevated into the late afternoon. Potential for isolated power outages with elevated gusts.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Patchy/areas of frost possible across northern areas tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... High pressure will build across the region tonight, bringing clear skies and light winds. This will result in favorable conditions for radiational cooling. Low temperatures will generally range from the mid to upper 30s across much of northern Maine. However, temperatures could locally drop to around freezing across northwest areas. Patchy/areas of frost are possible tonight across northern areas, particularly in the normally colder low lying locations. Patchy river valley fog is also possible later tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Chance for rain showers by late next week, though little to no drought improvement anticipated.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure system to the far north moves eastward, pushing a front through New England late next week. Models are coming into better agreement on the timing of the front, likely Thursday. Models indicate the front will likely be relatively weak, bringing only rain showers. Not anticipating enough rainfall to provide drought improvement at this time.

AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

This morning...VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR, late. Scattered showers at northern terminals. Chance for fog development at KHUL/KBGR/KBHB this morning. S winds around 10 kts, becoming SW/W.

Monday...Occasional MVFR possible early morning in the north, with isolated/scattered showers. Otherwise, VFR. NW winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25 to 30 kts.

Monday night...Generally VFR. Chance for valley fog overnight. NW winds 5 to 10 kts, becoming light and variable.

Tuesday to Wednesday Night..VFR. S winds Tuesday around 5 to 10 kts. Winds W/SW by late Wednesday Night.

Thursday to Thursday Night...Mainly VFR. Chance for MVFR in rain showers. Light and variable winds.

Friday...VFR. Light and variable winds early, then SW winds 5 to 10kts, gusting to 15kts.

MARINE

SCA level gusts possible over the intra-coastals this afternoon. Below SCA level gusts over outer waters. Seas 2-4ft. Patchy fog possible early this morning. West winds, shifting N tonight. Winds shift S/SW Tuesday.

All waters should experience sustained winds less than 15 kt, gusts less than 20 kt and seas 4 ft or less through Friday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ052.