textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Raised winds for today and issued wind advisory for far Northern Maine. - Removed chance for showers along the coast Wednesday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Gusty winds from the west this morning into early afternoon could lead to isolated power outages mainly in far Northern Maine.

2) Heat and humidity builds through the end of the week, peaking Friday.

3) Scattered showers and thunderstorms late this week. Some severe storms are possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Gusty winds from the west this morning into early afternoon could lead to isolated power outages mainly in far Northern Maine.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Much drier air is quickly moving in, but with that is a strong pressure gradient. Winds aloft are presently increasing, and think that once the sun rises and the clouds clear out, we could see these strong winds just off the surface get down to the surface. Winds will be a fair amount stronger in the north than toward the coast, and have issued a wind advisory for areas from Mars Hill north. Gusts as high as about 45 mph could lead to some branches and perhaps a few trees being downed, which would lead to a few power outages. Winds of this magnitude tend to lead to impacts on trees when you have leaves on the trees and wet soils like we have right now. Winds will still be gusty Downeast (to about 30 mph), but not as bad as in the north. Winds will begin to decrease early this afternoon and will be quite a bit lighter toward sunset today.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Heat and humidity builds through the end of the week, peaking Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... After a mild day today, temperatures are expected to rise as high pressure moves over our area, driving a SW flow that should help warmer air move into the region. Temperatures are expected to be 5 to 10 degrees above normal and may approach 90 degrees which in combination with relatively high humidity should favor some heat risk concerns. The hottest day over the North should be Wednesday, with Thursday and Friday likely the hottest over the Bangor region and Downeast Maine. The coast is likely to benefit from cooler conditions as onshore flow should bring marine air inland.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Scattered showers and thunderstorms late this week. Some severe storms are possible.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... A cold front is expected to move through the area on Friday and move out Saturday morning as another wave of low pressure moves in from the west. This is likely to drive thunderstorm development Friday and Saturday. The greatest risk Friday is over the North and further south on Saturday. Current long range model guidance is showing the potential for up to 1500 J/kg of instability with 20 to 30 kts of deep layer shear which in combination with steep low-level lapse rates driven by warm surface temperatures could support storms capable of a few strong wind gusts Fri/Sat. Still some uncertainty in severe potential depending on frontal timing and given that AI guidance is not very bullish on severe potential. There is slightly greater confidence that any storms on Friday could produce heavy rainfall as atmospheric moisture is expected to be well above average for this time of year and the atmospheric thermodynamic profile appears favorable for efficient rainfall. Less confident on the flash flooding threat as sufficiently strong upper-level winds should keep storms from staying over the same area for too long. Less atmospheric moisture expected Saturday so the heavy rainfall threat is reduced.

AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Today...VFR. Winds quite gusty from the W, with gusts 25-35 kts at Aroostook terminals and 20-25 kts at BGR/BHB until about 20-22z.

Tonight...VFR with SW winds 5-10 kts becoming light. Some LLWS possible this evening mainly at Aroostook terminals.

Wednesday...VFR with SW wind 5-10 kts.

Wednesday night - Thursday...VFR except for possible MVFR in patchy fog later in the night. Light S/SW winds, around 5 - 10 kts during the day.

Thursday night - Friday night...VFR most of the night, becoming MVFR/IFR Friday in scattered rain showers and T-storms. Patchy fog possible Thursday night. Light winds overnight, becoming W/SW winds 5 - 10 kts.

Saturday...MVFR/IFR with showers and scattered thunderstorms. W winds at 5 - 10 kts.

MARINE

Winds 20-25 kts early today gradually decrease to less than 15 kts tonight. Seas 5-9 ft early today subside to around 3 ft by late tonight.

Seas below SCA criteria Wednesday into the weekend, with 2-4ft seas on all waters through Saturday. There is a potential for fog Wednesday night and Thursday night. Another chance for thunderstorms is possible Friday into Saturday. Generally SW winds through the period.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Wind Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for MEZ001-002. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ050>052.