textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation section for 12Z TAFS.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered afternoon showers and isolated storms today and Tuesday. The activity today will be over Northern Maine, and Tuesday will be Downeast.

2) Much warmer Wednesday through Friday, with two dry days in a row area wide Wednesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered afternoon showers and isolated storms today and Tuesday. The activity today will be over Northern Maine, and Tuesday will be Downeast.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Frosty start to the day today in some areas, but this should be the last frosty morning. The main thing to watch today and Tuesday is the potential for afternoon showers/storms. Neither day is looking that impressive, but there should be just enough instability for scattered showers and perhaps an isolated storm both days. Today's threat is over Northern Maine north of Millinocket, while for Tuesday some drier air moves into the north and focus shifts to near the Downeast coast. No strong/severe storms are expected either day, and it's possible the showers may not even grow to storms either day. Coverage will be scattered in nature in the north today and near the coast tomorrow, with more areas staying dry than getting wet. Still, if you do have afternoon plans, it's a good idea to keep an eye and ear to the sky, especially if you happen to get near any of the isolated storms in which case it's a good idea to take shelter. Temperatures today and Tuesday will be a bit warmer, with mid/upper 60s today and upper 60s to low 70s tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Much warmer Wednesday through Friday, with two dry days in a row area wide Wednesday and Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A large surface high pressure system centered over the Great Lakes will gradually move southeast from Wednesday through Friday. As the system progresses, WSW flow will bring a very warm and dry airmass from the Southwestern US into the region. This will create clear skies and above normal temps. Wednesday should see mid 70s across the region. Thursday is expected to be the warmest day of the week with temps in the mid 80s. By Friday, the cold front should move through the north. This should bring temps into the mid to upper 70s in the north, but another day in the 80s for the south.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Other than a very low chance for a brief period of MVFR in any showers this afternoon at northern terminals, it will be VFR through the TAF period.

Winds start light and variable, then become N-NE at 6-10KT by mid morning. A sea breeze develops at southern terminals by mid-late afternoon. The timing on the sea breeze is of medium confidence and could be off +/- 2-3 hours depending on how well low level northerly flow can hold off the sea breeze. Winds become light and variable through out this evening.

Tuesday: VFR, with a chance of a brief period of MVFR in any afternoon showers/thunderstorms, with the best chance of this at BHB. NW winds G15-20KT possible.

Tuesday night-Thursday night: VFR.

Friday: VFR, with a brief period of MVFR possible KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL in afternoon showers.

MARINE

Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria through Friday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.