textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 9:26PM UPDATE...Made some minor tweaks to the POPs coverage across the area. KCBW Dual Pol showing lowered CC values tonight aloft greater than 3.5kft indicating bright banding in some of the base reflectivity. This shows some snowflakes are mixing in aloft which makes sense based on the 00z RAOB from CAR showing 10-12 degree dew point depressions aloft indicating wet bulb process underway aloft leading to the snowflakes mixed in. This will all remain aloft but do expect some moderate to heavy bursts of rain at the surface thanks to large rain drops, which is occurring right now here at the office. No other changes...

- 7:27PM UPDATE...00z TAF UPDATE. See the aviation section below for more details. Otherwise minor adjustments in the POPs over the next several hours. CBW & GYX radar echos over the interior Downeast and Bangor Region appear to be mostly virga since the dew point depressions are around 10-12 degrees. Across the north we are seeing increasing echos and more showery in nature so opted to change precip to showers instead of stratiform for the night. Additional echos moving into the Maine/Quebec borderlands with moderate showers expected. Continuing to watch the trend of thunderstorms NW of the St. Lawrence River that are pushing SE towards eastern Quebec. These are expected to weaken over the next 1-3hrs but will need to watch.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Light to occasionally moderate rain is likely tonight into Thursday with scattered thunderstorms possible in Northern Maine Thursday afternoon. Little to no drought relief expected.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Light to occasionally moderate rain is likely tonight into Thursday with scattered thunderstorms possible in Northern Maine Thursday afternoon. Little to no drought relief expected.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Intermittent light rain overspreads much of the north tonight, with a band of rain also developing further south toward Bangor/Downeast Thursday morning. As the cold front moves through from west to east Thursday afternoon, there is the potential for some convection just ahead of the front, mainly over the north. Model soundings show some weak instability up to 500 J/kg which could produce some thunder. Low freezing levels around 7500 ft may favor some small hail with any storms. Overall, not expecting any severe storms. The potential for drought relief is relatively low as total precipitation is expected to be generally below 0.50 inches, with the highest amounts over the north. That said, rain totals are trending a bit higher, and one tenth to one quarter inch is now possible Downeast as well. Rain ends Thursday night.

AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Tonight...Aroostook Terms (KFVE, KCAR, KPQI, KHUL): VFR conditions will prevail at the start of the period with cigs ranging from OVC050 to OVC090. Conditions will deteriorate to MVFR between 02Z and 07Z as -SHRA and BR develop, dropping cigs to OVC020-OVC035 and vsby to 46 SM. By late tonight/early tomorrow AM (08Z-11Z), cigs will fall further into the IFR category (OVC006 to OVC009) with vsby holding at MVFR levels (45 SM) in -SHRA and BR. Winds will generally be out of the S to SE at 5 to 10 KT, with gusts in the range of 15 to 20 KT developing at KHUL and KPQI.

BGR and BHB: VFR conditions are expected for the majority of the night with mid-level cigs (SCT050 to BKN150) and VCSH. By 10Z at KBGR and 12Z at KBHB, cigs will begin to lower toward MVFR levels (BKN025 to BKN035) as -SHRA and BR move in. Winds will be out of the S to SW at 10 to 15 KT, with gusts in the range of 15 to 20 KT at KBGR and 15 to 25 KT at KBHB.

Tomorrow...Aroostook Terms (KFVE, KCAR, KPQI, KHUL): IFR conditions will persist through the morning hours with cigs between OVC006 and OVC009 and vsby around 46 SM in -SHRA and BR. Conditions will lift to MVFR by 16Z, with cigs rising to BKN015-BKN020. Rapid improvement to VFR is expected by 18Z with cigs climbing to BKN035-BKN040 and vsby returning to P6SM. A PROB30 group is included for all Aroostook terms from 18Z to 21Z for -TSRA, which may bring localized MVFR conditions with BKN025CB cigs and 5 SM vsby. Winds will shift to the S and SW at 5 to 10 KT, with afternoon gusts in the range of 15 to 20 KT at KHUL.

BGR and BHB: Morning conditions will hover between VFR and MVFR, with KBGR seeing MVFR cigs bottom out at OVC028 and vsby dropping to 5 SM in -SHRA and BR by 14Z. KBHB will see MVFR cigs at BKN025 with 6 SM vsby starting at 12Z. By 18Z, conditions will improve to VFR across both terms, with cigs lifting to BKN050 at KBGR and BKN070 at KBHB, vsby at P6SM, and lingering VCSH. Winds will turn SW to W at 5 to 15 KT, with early gusts at KBHB in the 20 to 25 KT range, eventually easing to a 15 to 20 KT range in the afternoon.

Thursday night...VFR. A slight chance of showers early. Southwest/west winds 5 to 10 knots.

Friday...VFR/MVFR north. VFR Downeast. A slight chance to chance of showers mostly north. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Friday night...VFR/MVFR north. VFR Downeast. West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Saturday and Saturday night...VFR. West/northwest winds at 10-15 knots gusting up to 25 knots. Saturday winds calm to below 5 knots from the west/southwest. Gusts will be below 10 knots

Sunday and Sunday night...VFR. Winds from the south/southwest at 10-15 knots gusting up to 25 knots.

Monday...VFR/MVFR for a chance of scattered showers throughout the day. Winds will start out from the southwest and shift to the northwest throughout the afternoon. Winds at 5-10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

MARINE

Small craft conditions of wind gusts around 25 kt and seas up to 5 ft returning tonight on the coastal waters. Wind gusts should subside below criteria early Thursday morning on the coastal waters but seas may stay elevated around 5 ft throughout the day, then subside Thursday night.

Small craft advisory wind conditions possible Friday night. Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Saturday and Sunday. Wind and seas could reach small craft advisory conditions again Sunday night through early Monday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ050-051.