textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

8:35AM UPDATE...Have increased POPs across much of the CWA with rotating rain and snow showers associated with the upper level low to our east in the Maritimes. As the sun angle increasing during the day expecting the warming and cold pool aloft to lead to more showers.

Previous -Increased probability of precipitation today. -Updated aviation section based on upcoming 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Below normal temperatures today with scattered snow and rain showers, then dry Saturday with temperatures warming to near normal levels.

2) Temperatures returning to near or slightly warmer than average Sunday through Tuesday, and generally dry. Slightly cooler and more unsettled weather possible Wednesday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Below normal temperatures today with scattered snow and rain showers, then dry Saturday with temperatures warming to near normal levels.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Cool northerly flow will persist again today with continued unseasonably cool temperatures.

Upper level low will continue across the Canadian Maritimes today as energy rotates around this feature this afternoon. This will result in isolated snow showers across northern areas this morning. Diurnal instability will result in increasing chances for scattered snow or rain showers across the north this afternoon, with isolated to scatterd rain showers for the Bangor region and Downeast areas. Only light precipitation amounts are expected.

The upper low will move slowly east of the Canadian Maritimes tonight through Saturday. Partly to mostly cloudy skies can be expected tonight, with mainly sunny skies expected on Saturday. The air mass will modify by Saturday afternoon with high temperatures finally moderating to seasonable levels for this this of year.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures returning to near or slightly warmer than average Sunday through Tuesday, and generally dry. Slightly cooler and more unsettled weather possible Wednesday through Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Strong high pressure builds over the region for Sunday through Monday, then starts to move to the east Tuesday. Warmer temperatures are in store with readings near or a bit warmer than normal. A few solutions, mainly some Canadian ensemble members, bring a surface low pressure far enough north late Monday to bring some decent rain mainly to Downeast. The vast majority of solutions (at least 80 percent) keep the low pressure south and keep our area dry. Another thing to watch for is stubborn cloud cover. Models tend to underdo cloud cover in situations like this with strong high pressure and subsidence, as a thin layer low to mid level moisture can tend to get locked in. Right now the forecast is for generally partly to mostly cloudy skies, but wouldn't be surprised if it ends up more on the mostly cloudy end of things. This could keep daytime highs on the cooler side of what is forecast, and nighttime low on the warmer side of what is forecast. Didn't have enough confidence to hedge things at this time though. All of these things are pretty low impact.

Heading toward Wednesday and beyond, the pattern appears to change with cyclonic flow aloft setting up a bit to our west, putting us in a favorable position for precipitation. Models, however, disagree wildly on how much rain and the timing of any individual systems in this pattern. Overall, the better chance of rain seems to be over western portions of the state Wednesday to Friday.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Today...Predominantly VFR at all the terminals today. Although brief periods of MVFR are possible at times in scattered snow and rain showers, mainly at the Aroostook terminals. N wind around 10 kt.

Tonight...VFR for KBGR/KBHB with VFR/MVFR ceilings possible at the Aroostook terminals. N wind 5 to 10 kt.

Saturday...VFR. N wind 10 to 15 kt.

Saturday Night through Monday Night...Mainly VFR, with a chance of MVFR ceilings mainly in the AM hours. Variable wind less than 10 kts.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Low confidence. Mainly VFR, with a chance of MVFR. SE wind 5-15 kts.

MARINE

Winds/seas will remain below SCA levels through Saturday.

High confidence (greater than 90 percent chance) in below small craft winds/seas Saturday night through Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday, chances of small craft winds increase, with about a 75 percent chance of small craft winds and/or seas by late Wednesday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.