textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Update for 12z aviation discussion.

- Increasing confidence in development of a coastal low pressure system Monday though exact track, and therefore rain totals, still uncertain.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Fair weather this weekend will give way to more unsettled weather into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Fair weather this weekend will give way to more unsettled weather into early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure builds in through the weekend, with drier weather and more seasonable temperatures returning to the forecast area. Mostly sunny skies are expected today with temperatures 1-2 degrees warmer than yesterday over most of the area. By Sunday, cloud cover will slowly increase once more ahead of the next approaching low pressure system in return flow with hipres building to our south and east. Have cooled temps over Downeast with seabreeze developing in the afternoon.

The next low pressure system to cross the area Sunday night through Monday night will be in the form of a cold front which brings another round of rain and chance for thunderstorms. Latest guidance shows a triple point low pressure developing well off the coast near Cape Cod that moves NNE into the Gulf of Maine. Models differ, however, on the strength and track of this developing low, either closer to or farther from the coast. Current thinking is that the front moves through the north bringing more showers, while Downeast and coastal areas could see more steady rain from the developing system. Current rainfall totals range from 0.25-0.5 inches areawide with some locations seeing up to 0.75 inches in heavier showers or in rain bands, depending on the track of the low. This system will need to be monitored as models come in to better agreement on the track, which could shift rainfall totals.

Another chance for rain returns Wednesday night.

AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Today...VFR. NNW winds 5-10kts.

Tonight...VFR, with possible IFR fog again at PQI and HUL late. Light and variable winds.

Sunday...VFR. SSW winds 5-10kts.

Sunday night-Monday night: VFR, except MVFR/IFR possible in stronger showers and/or thunderstorms with fog possible in the overnights. S winds G15-20KT possible. LLWS possible.

Tuesday-Tuesday night: VFR. N wind 5-10 KT becoming variable overnight.

Wednesday: VFR early, with increasing chance for MVFR/IFR from KHUL northwards into the afternoon as showers and thunderstorms move into the area. SW winds G15-20KT possible.

MARINE

Winds aob 15kts with seas 3 ft or less on all waters through Sunday. Gusts of 25-30kt are possible over the coastal ocean and outer waters Sunday night and Monday, and possibly into Monday night on the outer waters, with sub-SCA conditions on the intra- coastal waters during this time frame. Winds should be 15 kt or less and seas 4 ft or less (5 ft or less from 25-60 nm) over the waters from Tuesday through Wednesday night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...None.