textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 740am: Added patchy smoke to the forecast for today due to smoke that has entered the area from the Northwest Territories of Canada. Smoke is not too bad at the surface, but is limiting visibility a bit. - Slight northward trend in higher rainfall totals late tonight into Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain moves in late tonight from west to east. Locally heavy rainfall may occur over the Central Highlands after midnight.

2) Another round of rain Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as a cold front crosses the area.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain moves in late tonight from west to east. Locally heavy rainfall may occur over the Central Highlands after midnight.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure remains over the area today before building south and east this afternoon, allowing return flow to move into the area. PW values increase above 1.50 inches over srn and ern areas late tonight. These values are well above the 90th percentile for this time of year. At the same time LLJ of 35-40kts increases between 09-15z from the Central Highlands north and east into ern Aroostook County. This will likely result in locally heavy rainfall with very efficient warm rain processes. Cannot rule out ponding of water on roadways with hydroplaning and nuisance flooding expected.

Expect that storms will be few and far between but any that can develop will likely produce torrential downpours. Overall widespread rainfall amounts look to range from 0.50-0.75 inches with most of it falling late Sunday night in the pre-dawn areas to a few hours after sunrise. Cannot rule out localized higher amounts.

Regarding coastal low development deterministic guidance, including ensemble members, are fairly persistent that a low will develop. However, it continues to slow down the development near the waters with most likely timeframe expected to be after 00z Tuesday. While this may cause enhanced rainfall to be delayed over Downeast it is also shifting lopres further to the south with heaviest rain possibly falling over the waters. Confidence is decreasing with heaviest rainfall over Downeast at this time with higher amounts from the Central Highlands and back to the northwest.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another round of rain Wednesday afternoon into Thursday as a cold front crosses the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A shortwave approaches from the west Wednesday behind the departing low pressure, bringing a cold front through the area. The cold front will push a round of showers through the area overnight into Thursday. Rainfall totals will likely be less than 0.5 inches, with less for the Downeast. There could be some rumbles of thunder in the north, but no severe storms are expected.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Today-Tonight...VFR through this evening. MVFR/IFR moving in from the west after 06z, with locally heavy rainfall possible at all terminals by the end of the period. S 5-10kts, gusting to 15-20kts late tonight. LLWS possible late tonight.

Monday...MVFR/IFR in showers/tstms with locally heavy rainfall possible. S 5-15kts, gusting to 20kts. LLWS possible into early afternoon.

Monday night: MVFR/IFR possible in stronger showers and/or thunderstorms with fog possible overnight. S winds G15-20KT possible.

Tuesday: VFR, with MVFR possible in some showers north of KBGR. NNE winds 5-10KT with G15-20KT possible at KBHB, shifting to S winds throughout the day.

Tuesday night: VFR. Light and variable winds.

Wednesday-Wednesday night: VFR early, with increasing chance for MVFR/IFR from KHUL northwards into the afternoon as showers and thunderstorms move into the area. SW winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts.

Thursday: Improving towards VFR. Winds W to NW at 5 to 10 kts.

MARINE

Winds below 20 kts and seas below 5 ft across all waters through Monday morning. Wind gusts may approach 25 kts on the outer waters Monday evening, while seas lift towards 3 to 6 ft Monday afternoon and evening. Coastal waters could see marginal small craft advisory criteria Tuesday before winds and seas diminish once more Tuesday night. Rain late Sunday night into Monday could limit visibility at times.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...None.