textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Lowered QPF this morning due to large dew point depressions across Northern Maine which is delaying precip onset timing.

- Added drizzle late this morning into the afternoon across the Bangor Region to Central Highlands in the upslope areas until the winds shift.

- Increased wind gusts and lowered dew points for Friday with a well mixed northwest flow.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Light Wintry mix north, rain south tapers to rain showers/drizzle areawide this afternoon. Another round of rain south this evening with refreeze likely areawide tonight.

2) Well below normal temperatures Saturday, followed by moderating temperatures Sunday, then a light wintry mix on Monday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Light Wintry mix north, rain south tapers to rain showers/drizzle areawide this afternoon. Another round of rain south this evening with refreeze likely areawide tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Challenging forecast this morning with large dew point depressions across Northern Maine delaying precipitation onset. Light snow is now falling at most locations except the St. John Valley but will be underway shortly. A warm front is lifting north across the Downeast at this hour. A weak surface low is tracking out of southern Quebec towards Maine within an open 500mb weak shortwave. The low will track across northern Maine today drawing warmer air northward across the forecast area with precipitation changing to rain areawide. Expecting 1-2 inches of snow from the Baxter Region northward with the highest totals in the St. John Valley, cannot rule out 2-3 inches. Hi-res modeled soundings suggest with the low tracking overhead the Central Highlands from Bangor region northward to southern Aroostook the possibility of some drizzle. The winds will be very light aloft above the surface in the lowest 2kft, saturated profiles and given this is a southerly upslope cannot rule out some patchy fog/drizzle.

The first low exits across the Maritimes this evening as a second low tracks into the Gulf of Maine from Southern New England. This will begin drawing a cold front south across the forecast area. Expecting another round of light rain to develop across the Central Highlands, Bangor Region and Downeast Maine with rain showers north of there transitioning back to snow showers. N-NW winds will begin increasing but there remains uncertainty how fast things dry tonight before refreeze takes place. Combination of snowmelt and rainfall could rapidly refreeze in Northern Maine making for slick travel on untreated surfaces. Across the areas seeing rainfall refreeze is a higher concern because rain will taper, cannot rule out brief snowflakes, then temperatures crash. Flash freeze is possible for untreated surfaces from the Central Highlands to Downeast coast including Bangor. Temperatures bottom out in the teens north with 20s south and cold breezy NW winds develop into Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Well below normal temperatures Saturday, followed by moderating temperatures Sunday, then a light wintry mix on Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... High temperatures Saturday will be a good 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year. Fortunately, winds are not expected to be all that strong, so wind chills are not expected to be too extreme during the day. Temperatures will moderate closer to normal levels by Sunday, but it will still be a few degrees below normal for this time of year. A fast moving weather system will approach the region Monday bringing a snow/rain mix to northern areas Monday and the chance of rain downeast. Temperatures are expected to rise to above normal levels Monday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Before 12z this morning...MVFR south, VFR north. Lowering to MVFR north and IFR south. -SN developing right now at northern terms with -RA/SN mixing at BGR changing to RA for BGR and BHB. By 12z expecting IFR/LIFR with -SN north and with -RA south. Light and variable winds becoming S 5-10kt. LLWS likely this morning all terms.

Today...IFR/LIFR improving to MVFR north and VFR Downeast late. Snow in the morning changes to rain and tapers off across the north. South/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots.

Thursday night...High uncertainty with the northern extent of low clouds and RA. MVFR likely, with IFR and steady RA most likely along the coast. Some improvement is possible late, mainly across the north, where VFR is possible late. NW winds 5 to 10 kts.

Friday...VFR. NW winds 10-15kt gusting 20-30kt.

Friday night thru Sunday...Mainly VFR. N to NW wind Friday night through Saturday. SW wind on Sunday.

Monday...MVFR possible in snow/rain.

MARINE

The Small Craft Advisory for the Intra-Coastal Waters has been extended to 8AM EDT Friday. Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 4 to 6 ft. Winds will shift N late tonight and fall below SCA criteria. Seas will remain at criteria into Friday AM. The Small Craft Advisory for the Coastal Waters out 25nm has been extended to 2PM EDT Friday. Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 6 to 9 ft. Winds will shift N late tonight and only a few gusts up to 25kt into Friday. Seas will remain above criteria into Friday PM.

Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible Friday night and again Sunday night and possible Gale Force conditions on Monday. Light freezing spray is possible Friday night and Saturday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ052.