textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 6 AM Update: Added patchy river valley fog in for a few hours this morning based on current surface and satellite observations...fog should quickly dissipate by around 9 AM. Updates to aviation section below with the 12z TAFs.

- Rain showers possible across northern Aroostook county tonight

KEY MESSAGES

1) System bringing rain showers and chance for thunder moves in Sunday afternoon.

2) System brings round of rain showers mid-to-late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...System bringing rain showers and chance for thunder moves in Sunday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A couple rounds of 700 mb vort maxes will impact the forecast area beginning late tonight. First, a weak 700 mb vort max will dip over the St. John Valley overnight tonight. This may bring scattered rain showers into northern Aroostook county through the night as some higher PWATs accompany the feature (lifting to 0.8 to 0.9 inches), but the vorticity will weaken and exit the area early Sunday morning. Additionally, dry air will return as well Sunday morning, with PWATs dipping back below 0.8 inches.

A cold front will later cross the forecast area Sunday afternoon, bringing another round of showers and storms across the entire area. Though forecast 0-6 km shear is quite high, approaching 60 kts from the NAMNEST, forecast CAPE is on the lower end, and there will not be any deep layer of moisture to work with. That said, thunderstorms are possible but will likely be ordinary in structure. Lines of training storms could develop along the boundary itself as it crosses the area, and this would be the best chance at any stronger organization for enhanced threats, but even then, at most it appears maybe some gusty winds with these storms based on the lack of extensive severe parameters being met at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 2...System brings round of rain showers mid-to-late week.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... High pressure over northern New England early week, as a low pressure moves east ward through Canada. Global models are disagreeing on the timing of the system and its associated front, with the GFS showing rain on Thursday and the ECMWF showing rain Wednesday afternoon. GLobal models have been trending this system slower in the last few model runs, so anticipating rainfall late week. Expecting the highest rain totals to be in the Downeast region. Confidence will begin to improve once models get a better handle on the environment for next week.

AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Today...VFR conditions across all terminals with mostly SKC. W winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts 15 to 20 kts.

Tonight...VFR conditions continue, with a slight chance (less than 10 percent) of reduced vis due to fog development late. Winds shift SW around 5 kts, becoming light and variable overnight. Brief LLWS possible early, between around 00z and 06z, at northern terminals.

Sunday...VFR early, with MVFR/IFR potentially developing in the afternoon with showers and thunderstorms from KBGR northwards. W to SW winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts.

Sunday night...MVFR with a chance of rain showers. VFR late. W/NW winds at 5 to 10 knots.

Monday...VFR. NW winds at 5 to 10 knots.

Monday night...VFR. Chance for some valley fog. Light and variable winds.

Tuesday...VFR. Winds Variable winds.

Tuesday night...VFR at northern terminals, and MVFR at KBGR/KBHB in rain showers. Light and variable winds overnight.

Wednesday...MVFR/IFR in potential rain showers. SE winds at 5-10 kts.

MARINE

Winds/seas below SCA levels this weekend into early next week. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Slight chance for rain showers Sunday night. Winds NW Sunday night into Monday, shifting clockwise Tuesday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...None.