textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Have extended the Small Craft Advisory for the intra-coastal waters through 8 PM.

- Increased confidence in rain showers moving in late week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The remnants of the noreaster will impact the region tonight into Tuesday with occasional rain.

2) Next round of rain showers expected for the end of next week. Drought relief unlikely.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...The remnants of the noreaster will impact the region tonight into Tuesday with occasional rain.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The vertically stacked noreaster will move to the Gulf of Maine tonight while the surface low slowly fills. A weakening band of rain to the north of the system is currently lifting across northern Maine. Another area of rain will expand across the region tonight with the approaching vertically stacked system. This system will cross the Gulf of Maine Tuesday. This will keep occasional rain or showers across the region through Tuesday. The system then begins to exit across the Maritimes Tuesday night, with surface/upper level ridging then starting to build across the region late. Any lingering showers should end Tuesday evening, leaving partly/mostly cloudy skies overnight. Additional rainfall tonight through Tuesday evening should generally range from around a quarter to half inch, with locally higher totals possible. We do not expect any flooding concerns anywhere given the D1-D3 drought conditions. In fact nearly all of the rainfall will likely be absorbed into the near surface ground and very unlikely any water gets into the rivers and streams. Rivers and streams are currently in the 1-15th percentile range with many approaching top 5 lowest flows on record.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Next round of rain showers expected for the end of next week. Drought relief unlikely.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... High pressure will build across the region behind current Noreaster, bringing dry conditions until late week. Low pressure to the northwest in Canada tracks eastward, bringing a relatively weak cold front through the state Thursday night into Friday. Not anticipating heavy rain or high rain totals at this time. Based on global models, PWATs seem to range from normal, to slight above normal. Rain approaches from the NW, and exits in the SE. High pressure builds in behind this frontal system over the weekend.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Rest of today...Across Aroostook county terminals, generally VFR through early afternoon. VFR/MVFR later this afternoon with occasional rain or showers. Across Downeast areas, IFR/LIFR with occasional rain or showers. Across northern areas, northeast/east winds 5 to 10 knots. Across Downeast areas, northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Tonight...Across northern areas, MVFR/IFR early then IFR/LIFR. Across Downeast areas, IFR/LIFR. Occasional rain or showers regionwide. Northeast/north winds 5 to 10 knots with gusts up to around 15 knots.

Tuesday...IFR/LIFR early, then becoming VFR/MVFR in the afternoon. Occasional rain or showers. North/northeast winds 5 to 10 knots with gusts up to around 15 knots.

Tuesday night...VFR. N winds 5 to 10 kts.

Tuesday night - Thursday...VFR. Light and variable winds turning SW at around 10kts by Thursday, gusting to 20 kts.

Thursday night - Friday...MVFR overnight in the north with rain showers, becoming MVFR area wide Friday. S winds Thursday night become W on Friday, with gusts 15 to 20 kts possible.

Friday night - Saturday...MVFR Friday night at Downeast terminals, as rain moves out of the region. VFR Saturday. NW winds around 5kts overnight, and 5 to 10 kts during the day.

MARINE

Have extended the Small Craft Advisory on the intra-coastal waters through 8 PM. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 2 AM for the coastal waters. Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels on all the waters Tuesday. Occasional rain/showers and patchy fog tonight into Tuesday.

Conditions below SCA criteria Wednesday into Friday. Seas generally 3-4 ft. Chance for coastal - 25nm waters to see a few 5ft seas on Friday. Chance for rain Friday into Friday night. N/NW winds shifting SW Wednesday night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ052.