textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Removed severe storm mention out of all but Piscataquis County. Also confined the chance for thunder to mostly western Piscataquis County and southern Penobscot County.

Added smoke to the forecast as wildfire smoke from Canada has moved into the area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Severe thunderstorms are looking less likely for our area tonight.

2) Cooler Wednesday through the weekend, with a chance for showers and storms mainly Wednesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Severe thunderstorms are looking less likely for our area tonight. Any severe storms this evening into tonight would be in western areas.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The cloud cover from the early morning MCS that dropped south out of Quebec and wildifre smoke from the Ontario province in Canada have resulted in less instability than initially expected over our area today. Thus, our severe risk for northern and central Maine has dropped considerably. Any severe storms will be mainly confined to western areas although cannot rule out a stronger storm clipping either western Piscataquis and Penobscot counties. Have removed all mention of severe storms out of the forecast but left in a chance for thunder over central Maine this evening into tonight. Also added a chance for thunder over the far north as the cold front moves in but still not expecting any severe with that.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler Wednesday through the weekend, with a chance for showers and storms mainly Wednesday and Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Cooler weather pattern setting up mid to late week, with a deep, cool upper level low pressure centered north of the area. We could see some primarily afternoon showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday, with the better chance being Thursday. However, we don't anticipate severe storms. Can't rule out some small hail Thursday though with the cold air aloft. More uncertainty from Friday onward, but tentatively looking fairly dry. High temperatures will be fairly close to average, with low temperatures a bit cooler than average. The coolest day will likely be Friday, when highs may struggle to reach 70 in the north. Some 40s at night in cooler northern valleys are likely from Friday night through Saturday night.

AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 00z tonight...VFR most areas though MVFR cigs possible at FVE over the next 2 hours before scattering out.

Tonight...VFR in light showers. Have included prob30 for -tsra at BHB between 00-04z. May see IFR vsbys at BHB between 06-11z this morning, otherwise VFR. SW winds 5-10kts.

Wednesday...VFR, though cannot rule out MVFR in an afternoon storm. W winds 5-15kts, gusting 20-25kts in the afternoon.

Wednesday night...VFR. W winds 5-10kts.

Thursday to Saturday: Mainly VFR with possible MVFR at times mainly in the north due to either cigs or afternoon showers/storms. Best chance for afternoon storms is Thursday. W winds 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts.

Sunday...MVFR/VFR in -shra/-tsra. Light and variable winds.

MARINE

Swell increases tonight with seas increasing above 5ft this evening through the overnight. SW wind gusts continue to be marginal out to 25NM and will diminish through most of the overnight. Seas will be marginal through Wed afternoon but have opted not to extend SCA beyond sunrise.

W winds generally 10-20 kts Thursday through Saturday with minimal fog threat. Seas 2-5 ft through Sat, generally on the lower side of the range toward Saturday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050>052.