textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

SCA cancelled

Updated SCA section for 00Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Heat and humidity builds through the end of the week.

2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms late this week. Some severe storms are possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat and humidity builds through the end of the week.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Southwest winds bring the heat to the region starting Wednesday with the warmest day over the north being tomorrow. Temps will climb to around 90 over inland locations with locations along the coast near 80. Dewpoints will climb into the 60s though may be able to mix out into the 50s during the afternoon. This should help keep apparent temps near air temperatures tomorrow. Temperatures stay elevated through Saturday. Seabreeze develops Wednesday evening, to help reduce temperatures along the Downeast coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered showers and thunderstorms late this week. Some severe storms are possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure system approaches from the northwest, moving into New Brunswick. Associated cold front is trending slower, as it swings through on Friday evening, through Maine by Saturday. Another low pressure system to the southwest comes in as well, providing another round of rain this weekend. There is some instability ahead of the cold front. NAM has begun to pick up on the system, with it currently showing around 1,500 2,000 J/kg of CAPE, good low level lapse rates (roughly 8C/km), and plenty of precipitation. Soundings are moist, with classic long and skinny CAPE throughout most of northern and eastern Maine. PWAT values around 1.8 possible, which is around the 90th percentile, approaching the 1.9 daytime maximum value on Friday, and 1.7" record on Saturday. Keeping the threat of thunder inland, as a seabreeze off of the stable Gulf of Maine waters should stabilize the coast and keep daytime high temperatures cooler than inland areas. Storm motions, based on Corfidi vectors, seems to be moving fast enough to keep flash flood threat at bay, but will need to see how this evolves as the regional models and CAMs pick up on the system and preexisting environment.

Global models are keep rainfall through the state and continue to bring instability in along the Central Highlands and Downeast region on Saturday. North has less instability. Chance for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon as front makes its way through. Convective showers could bring periods of heavier rainfall.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

High confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Winds become light and variable tonight at all except KFVE where they should be out of the W-WSW at less than 10 kt. Winds at northern terminals become W-WSW at 6-9 kt by mid-late Wednesday morning, then become light and variable again at all but KFVE towards the end of the TAF period. At southern terminals a sea breeze develops around midday Wednesday.

LLWS tonight at northern terminals.

Wednesday night-Thursday night...VFR, with a low end chance for MVFR/IFR river valley fog overnight.

Friday-Saturday...MVFR/IFR possible in scattered rain showers and thunderstorms, otherwise VFR. Periods of heavier rain with thunderstorms is possible.

Saturday night-Sunday...MVFR/IFR with showers overnight, and scattered thunderstorms during the day.

MARINE

Seas have fallen below 5.0 ft and wind gusts to below 25 kt on the coastal ocean waters, therefore the SCA there has been cancelled. Seas drop below 4ft and winds down to below 20 kt this evening over all waters, and remain so through Wednesday night.

Below SCA conditions Thursday into the weekend, with 2-4ft seas over all waters. Potential for some overnight fog Thursday night. Chance for some thunderstorms Friday through the weekend. Winds from the S/SW on Thursday into the weekend.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.