textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Lowered forecast rainfall totals some across the Downeast region based on current observations and trends. Locally enhanced rain may still approach 3 inches storm total in some spots, but overall totals are more likely to peak around 2 inches across the Coastal Downeast region.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Continued rain through the weekend, with highest amounts Downeast. The rainfall may provide some drought relief.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Continued rain through the weekend, with highest amounts Downeast. The rainfall may provide some drought relief.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A stationary front remains along the Maine coast early this morning, with deep moisture advection moving northeast along the boundary and supporting ongoing rainfall throughout the Bangor and Downeast regions. A coastal low is projected to develop further south along this boundary, then move up along the New England coast through the day today, locally enhancing rainfall. Based on this synoptic and mesoscale pattern, enhanced rain amounts Downeast, particularly into the Washington County coast, could exceed 2 inches by the time the storm system finally exits to the east. Though this will by not means fix the ongoing drought, this rainfall over a period of around 48 hours could provide a little relief.

As the low pressure system collectively shifts eastward tonight into the day on Sunday, rain will become more showery and spread northwards, encompassing the entire forecast area. Light rain showers may last through Sunday morning before they themselves begin to shift eastward with the departing low pressure.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Early this morning...Across northern areas, VFR/MVFR continues to lower MVFR/IFR. Across Downeast areas, becoming IFR/LIFR. Rain. An isolated thunderstorm also possible Downeast through early morning. Variable winds around 5 kts, becoming NE 10 to 15 kts.

Today...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Rain. NE winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 to 25 kts by this afternoon.

Tonight-Sunday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, due to rain. Winds shifting NW at 5 to 10 kts, with gusts 15 to 20 kts possible during the afternoon.

Sunday night-Monday...VFR/MVFR, from a chance of rain showers in the north. Snow possible late Sunday night into Monday, but chance of snow reaching terminals remains low. W winds 5 to 10 kts, gusting to 20 kts.

Monday night-Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR in rain showers Monday afternoon into early evening. WSW winds 5-10 kts.

Tuesday night-Wednesday...Mainly VFR with showers, possible snow showers in the north. WNW winds 5-10 kts, gusting to 20kts on Wednesday.

MARINE

Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today. Rain and patchy/areas fog through Sunday. Winds and seas lift towards SCA criteria Sunday into Monday night with winds gusting 25 to 30 kts and seas 4 to 6 ft. Variable wind directions tonight, becoming NW on Sunday.

Seas diminish slightly through Monday, with rain showers through the day, but seas will remain near SCA criteria through Tuesday. Seas will again build between 4-6 ft on Wednesday. Winds will fluctuate between NW and SW Monday through Wednesday ahead of another chance for showers.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.