textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation Section for 00z TAFs

KEY MESSAGES

1) Very warm and increasingly humid conditions through Thursday, with the highest temperatures focused inland.

2) Shower chances return this evening and persist into the weekend. Fog is likely near the coast tonight and Thursday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Very warm and increasingly humid conditions through Thursday, with the highest temperatures focused inland.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A very warm airmass persists over the area today, with temperatures this afternoon topping out in the 80s. Not much change tomorrow (Thursday) over the north with mid to upper 80s persisting, but 5-10F cooler over southern portions of the area thanks to more clouds and flow off the cool waters. Dewpoints are steadily increasing and it is starting to feel a touch muggy today with dewpoints in the 50s, and tomorrow and Friday will be a bit muggier still with dewpoints 60-65F. Heat risk is generally in the moderate category today, then falls to minor tomorrow Downeast but remains moderate in the north. For moderate heat risk, it affects those who are sensitive to heat, especially those without cooling/hydration. The fairly warm nights the next few nights will make it harder to cool homes for those without and sort of air conditioning. Friday, with more clouds and moisture, temperatures trend downward a bit areawide though it will stay fairly muggy.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Shower chances return this evening and persist into the weekend. Fog is likely near the coast tonight and Thursday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION.. Moisture gradually returns to the area, with a chance of showers tonight mainly south/west of Millinocket. Nothing too significant. From Thursday into Thursday night, the main chance of showers will be north of Bangor, with a chance of a few non- severe storms over the North Woods. The air from Thursday into Thursday night will generally be too stable for convective showers toward the coast.

Toward the coast, fog becomes likely later tonight and again Thursday night. We can't rule out some denser fog, but confidence is low.

Weak ridging takes over on Friday with some increasing instability in the afternoon. Expect some afternoon showers with possible thunderstorms in mainly western areas. By Friday night, the cold front boundary will move from W to E. There is low confidence in thunderstorm development during the night due to frontal lifting, some elevated CAPE, and steep low level lapse rate. The loss of diurnal heating might decrease the chances of thunderstorms, but cannot rule it out. Saturday could see a higher possibility for afternoon thunderstorms, mainly in northern areas. Another cold front approaches on Sunday, with a better chance of thunderstorms for the area.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

High confidence in VFR through the TAF period at northern terminals. Southern terminals start VFR, with MVFR conditions developing at KBHB around midnight and at KBGR late tonight/early Thursday morning. IFR or lower is then likely to develop at KBHB late tonight/early Thursday morning as well. Conditions should improve to VFR at KBGR at around midday and at KBHB early Thursday afternoon.

Winds should be light and variable through the TAF period at all but KBHB, where SSE winds at less than 10KT are possible by Thursday afternoon.

Thursday Night: Becoming IFR or lower KBGR/KBHB, with MVFR or lower likely late for FVE/CAR/PQI/HUL.

Friday: VFR, except for a brief period of MVFR is possible with any showers at FVE/CAR/PQI. SE winds G15KT possible.

Friday Night-Saturday: MVFR or lower likely. Slight chance for thunder at northern terminals. SE winds G15KT possible Friday evening.

Saturday Night: VFR. S winds G15KT possible.

Sunday-Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR likely. Slight chance for thunder at all terminals. S winds G15-20KT possible Sunday. LLWS possible Sunday night. Monday: Becoming VFR.

MARINE

Fog likely on the waters starting tonight and continuing into the morning on Thursday. Winds generally 10 kts or less with seas 4 ft less through Thursday night.

Another round of fog possible Thursday night/early Friday morning, and again Friday night. There is the potential for some showers over the waters tonight into Thursday then another round Friday night into Saturday night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.