textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased confidence in a soaking rain on Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread soaking rain expected Thursday. Some drought relief is possible, but flooding is not expected.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread soaking rain expected Thursday. Some drought relief is possible, but flooding is not expected.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Confidence is increasing in a widespread soaking rain for Thursday. The setup involves an upper level trough approaching from the northwest and amplifying over the region, with surface low pressure likely developing just offshore Thursday. There is some uncertainty in the onset time of the rain, with rain moving in from west to east sometime Wednesday afternoon to late Wednesday night. Thursday looks quite rainy areawide, likely persisting into Thursday night. This is looking more like a steady widespread rain with cooler temperatures, and less like showers/storms. By late Thursday night, storm total rain has a 90 percent chance of topping 0.10 inch, a 75 percent chance of topping 0.50 inch, and a 50 percent chance of topping 1 inch. There is even about a 15 percent chance of 2 inches. Hard to pinpoint whether Downeast or the north will get the higher totals, as right now probabilities are about the same north vs south.

Whether the rain persists into Friday and Saturday is a bit of a wild card. Most models kick the low pressure off to the east and dry us out by Friday night at least. However, a notable minority of models have rain sticking around into Friday night and even Saturday with a slower exit to the surface low pressure, with the possibility of it even stalling along with the upper level cutoff low pressure.

Although it could be breezy with this upcoming weather system, we do not expect winds being strong enough to cause any tree damage.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Monday...VFR. Chance for some fog at KBGR/KBHB, and chance for BCFG at KHUL, early Monday morning. NW winds at 5 to 10 knots.

Monday night...VFR. Chance for some valley fog. Light and variable winds.

Tuesday...VFR. Light and variable winds at northern terminals, and a S/SE breeze at KBGR/KBHB.

Tuesday night...VFR.

Wednesday...VFR, possibly becoming MVFR late. SE wind increasing to 10 kts.

Wednesday Night through Friday...Mostly MVFR/IFR with rain and low clouds. The best chance of IFR or lower comes late Wednesday night into Thursday. Winds SE around 10 kts, becoming NE Thursday night and Friday. Some winds toward 15-20 kts are possible at times, especially BGR/BHB.

MARINE

Winds/seas below SCA levels tonight through early next week. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of rain Wednesday night into Thursday. NW winds today, becoming SW tonight. E winds Tuesday.

Somewhat elevated winds/seas are expected Wednesday night to Friday with low pressure passing through the area. There is around a 50 percent chance of 25 kt winds at some point in this time range, and a 20 percent chance of gales. Seas look to peak somewhere 4-6 ft. Also, can't rule out a few storms over the waters Thursday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.