textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 6 AM Update with the 12z TAFs

KEY MESSAGES

1) A front will drop through the forecast area today, bringing rain showers and isolated thunderstorms to the region this afternoon.

2) System brings round of rain showers mid-to-late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A front will drop through the forecast area today, bringing rain showers and isolated thunderstorms to the region this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A cold front will the forecast area this afternoon, bringing another round of showers and storms across the entire area. CAMs forecast reflectivity suggest that there could be a prefrontal trough ahead of the main front, such that showers and storms develop across the Crown of Maine along with the Interior Downeast region at the same time early this afternoon before the front proceeds southwards through the CWA. Though forecast 0-6 km shear is quite high, approaching 50 kts from the NAMNEST, forecast CAPE is on the lower end, around 500 J/kg from the NAMNEST, and there will not be any deep layer of moisture to work with. That said, thunderstorms are possible but will likely be ordinary in structure. Lines of training storms could develop along the front and prefrontal boundaries themselves as they cross the area, and this would be the best chance at any stronger organization for enhanced threats, but even then, at most it appears maybe some gusty winds with these storms based on the lack of extensive severe parameters being met at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 2...System brings round of rain showers mid-to-late week.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... High pressure over northern New England early week, as a low pressure moves eastward through Canada. Chance for some stray showers moving into the Central Highlands and Bangor regions on Tuesday, as some models hint at a disturbance developing off of the aforementioned parent low in Canada.

For rain mid-to-late week, global models are trending towards the low pressure system moving through Maine Wednesday night into Thursday. The disagreement between models is currently in a surface low that develops off of the parent low in Canada. The GFS has a surface low develop on Thursday, and staying out in the Atlantic. The ECMWF, however, has a surface low develop much earlier on Tuesday, over the Gulf of Maine, and slowly move out to sea through the week. With either solution, anticipating highest rain totals along the Downeast region. Confidence in timing, severe potential, and rain amounts, will begin to improve once models get a better handle on the environment for next week.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Today...VFR early. VFR/MVFR, occasional IFR, during the afternoon with showers and thunderstorms. W to WSW winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts, shifting NW behind a cold front late.

Tonight...MVFR with a chance of rain showers. VFR late. NW winds 5 to 10 kts.

Monday...VFR. NW winds at 5 to 10 knots.

Monday night...VFR. Chance for some valley fog. Light and variable winds.

Tuesday...VFR. Light and variable winds.

Tuesday night...VFR at northern terminals, and slight chance for MVFR at KBGR/KBHB in rain showers. Light and variable winds overnight.

Wednesday - Thursday...MVFR/IFR in potential rain showers. SE winds at 5-10 kts.

MARINE

Winds/seas below SCA levels tonight through early next week. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Slight chance for rain showers Tuesday, and chance of rain Wednesday night into Thursday. Winds W/SW Monday night, becoming SE Tuesday, and E/NE Wednesday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...None.