textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of inland Maine in a 15% risk for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Very warm to hot high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s possible Monday-Wednesday. Highest apparent temperatures Tuesday for all but Downeast. Downeast, especially coastal areas should see the highest apparent temperatures Wednesday.

2) There is a chance for strong thunderstorms area wide on Tuesday, and mainly across coastal Downeast Maine on Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Very warm to hot high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s possible Monday-Wednesday. Highest apparent temperatures Tuesday for all but Downeast. Downeast, especially coastal areas should see the highest apparent temperatures Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Current guidance is showing high confidence in a warming trend beginning on Monday and continuing through the middle of next week. Temperatures are currently expected to peak Tuesday across all inland areas and Wednesday for coastal Downeast. Highs should reach the upper 80s over the North and the low 90s further south. Moderate humidity with dew points in the 60s are expected which should push the apparent temperature higher. A cooldown is likely through the end of the week as cooler air moves in behind a cold front expected to exit off the coast on Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...There is a chance for strong thunderstorms area wide on Tuesday, and mainly across coastal Downeast Maine on Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... The Storm Prediction Center has placed all but coastal Maine in a 15% risk for severe thunderstorms on Tuesday. Current ensemble guidance is expressing good agreement on a strong upper-level disturbance approaching our area on Tuesday and passing through the area Tuesday night with a cold front at the surface. High surface temperatures and ample moisture should fuel considerable instability as ensembles are showing around 1000 to 1500 J/kg. A jet of strong upper-level winds is expected to contribute to deep-layer shear of around 50 kts which is quite high for this time of year. Both daytime and nocturnal strong thunderstorms are currently possible with the setup. While the initial threat is for northern and central areas Tuesday, a secondary risk may be possible Wednesday Downeast if the cold front doesn't clear out of the area by then. This is far out so there still exists some uncertainty, especially as to the timing of the cold frontal passage which will determine when and where storms might occur and how severe storms can become. However, it is certainly worth keeping a close eye on given the agreement in the guidance.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Rest of this afternoon: Localized brief MVFR with any isolated/scattered showers. Otherwise, VFR. Northwest/north winds around 10 knots with gusts up to 15 to 20 knots.

Tonight: Variable conditions with any patchy fog late. Otherwise, VFR. Northwest/north winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday: Variable conditions with any patchy fog early. Otherwise, VFR. Northwest/north winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Saturday night: Variable conditions with any patchy fog late. Otherwise, VFR. Northwest/north winds around 5 knots.

Sunday-Sunday night: VFR. NW winds around 5 kts, becoming SW overnight.

Monday-Monday Night: VFR, except for MVFR in any showers/thunderstorms at northern terminals Monday afternoon/evening. SW winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts possible Monday afternoon. LLWS possible Monday night.

Tuesday-Tuesday night: VFR, except for a period of MVFR or lower possible in any stronger convection. The best chance for a strong thunderstorm is at northern terminals and the threat could continue into the overnight hours. W/SW winds around 10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts possible Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday: VFR, except possible MVFR in any isolated showers/thunderstorms, especially at northern terminals. W/NW winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts.

MARINE

Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight through Saturday night. Patchy fog through early tonight.

Below SCA conditions Sunday through Monday. Marginal SCA winds and seas on the coastal and intracoastal waters Monday night through early Wednesday, then decreasing below criteria.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.