textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Updated aviation discussion for the 06z TAFs.

- Confidence increasing in dry conditions Monday-Thursday next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated to scattered snow/rain showers will occur through the weekend. The better chances for showers will occur across northern and northwestern areas along with the west-central highlands.

2) Persistent dry conditions next week will lead to a worsening of the ongoing water resource drought impacting Eastern and Northern Maine.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Isolated to scattered snow/rain showers will occur through the weekend. The better chances for showers will occur across northern and northwestern areas along with the west-central highlands.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A closed upper low will move south across the region today, exiting tonight. An upper level disturbance then moves south across the region Sunday. Both the closed low and upper disturbance will support isolated to scattered snow/rain showers today and Sunday. The showers will generally be most numerous across northern and northwestern areas, along with the west-central highlands. Any snow accumulations today through Sunday will be minimal, generally only a few tenths of an inch. However, local accumulations up to around an inch could occur across mostly higher terrain areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Persistent dry conditions next week will lead to a worsening of the ongoing water resource drought impacting Eastern and Northern Maine.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Northern stream ridging builds in Monday, then exits Monday night, with associated subsidence keeping things dry. A northern stream shortwave crosses the area Tuesday, but with dry low levels, it should go by precipitation free. Deep layered ridging then builds in Tuesday night-Thursday, with associated subsidence keeping things dry. The models then differ on how quickly the ridge axis exits to the east, allowing for a northern stream shortwave to cross the region in its wake. This results in the timing of light precipitation across the North ranging from Thursday night to next weekend. Regardless, the amount of precipitation expected from the passing shortwave should have no impact on existing drought conditions.

This continued dry weather will allow for soil moistures to dry/remain at much below normal levels next week.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Today...Across northern areas, variable conditions with any snow/rain showers. Otherwise, MVFR/IFR this morning then MVFR this afternoon. Across Downeast areas, occasional MVFR ceilings possible this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR. North/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots.

Tonight...Across northern areas, variable conditions with any snow showers. Otherwise, MVFR/IFR. Across Downeast areas, VFR/MVFR. Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday...Across northern areas, variable conditions with any snow/rain showers. Otherwise, MVFR. Across Downeast areas, VFR/MVFR. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 to 25 knots.

Sunday night-Wednesday: VFR, except for a very low chance of MVFR at northern terminals on Wednesday. N-NW winds G15-20KT possible Sunday evening. W-WSW winds G15-20KT possible Tuesday.

MARINE

Winds/seas generally below small craft advisory levels today through Sunday. However, a few wind gusts could approach small craft advisory levels Sunday.

Small Craft Conditions are likely on the coastal ocean waters Sunday night, however confidence is not quite high enough to issue an SCA at this time. Sub-SCA conditions are likely on the intra-coastal waters then as well. From Monday-Wednesday, the coastal waters should see sustained winds of 15 kt or less and seas 3 ft or less.

For the outer waters from Sunday night-Wednesday, sustained winds should be 20 kt or less and seas 5 ft or less.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.