textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Increased rain chances for the rest of this afternoon in the north, and decreased Downeast. - Increased shower chances during the day Friday over Eastern Aroostook to 30 percent. - Increased fog Friday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Occasional rain mainly north of Bangor the rest of this afternoon, tapering off this evening.

2) Showers, and potentially a few thunderstorms, likely late this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Occasional rain mainly north of Bangor the rest of this afternoon, tapering off this evening.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Rain totals in general have been more than expected over north/northwest areas, and less Downeast. Totals are approaching an inch around Presque Isle, and it's still raining over most areas north of Bangor. Downeast totals have generally been from barely measurable to as much as two tenths of an inch. Generally, look for a decreasing trend in the rain later this afternoon, with mostly dry conditions tonight. Anticipate enough of a breeze from the northeast to keep fog minimal. A few showers are still possible mainly in Aroostook County during the day Friday, but nothing that significant.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Showers, and potentially a few thunderstorms, likely late this weekend into early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A cold front approaches our area Saturday night with an area of low pressure developing along it Sunday. The low should pass north of our area Sunday night into Monday. Showers and an isolated thunderstorm possible over the North Woods late Saturday as the cold front approaches with more showers and a greater chance for thunderstorms Sunday as low pressure passes to our north. The greatest chance for storms will be over northern and western Maine as southerly flow is likely to keep stable marine air over more southern and eastern areas. Models have started to signal at a delay in the cold front as well as weaker instability, which would help limit thunder development in these showers. Steadier rain from the front will overtake the area Sunday night into Monday, though totals should be less than half an inch, with some locally higher amounts in heavier showers.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Rest of Today...Widely variable conditions both spatially and temporally, but generally MVFR/IFR at northern TAF sites as of 18z with rain, and generally MVFR/VFR Downeast. Expect a bit of improvement through the afternoon as rain begins to taper off. NE wind 5-10 kts.

Tonight...Low confidence, but tentatively anticipating VFR conditions through about 8z with ceilings just above MVFR levels. Can't rule out intermittent MVFR/IFR though. MVFR cigs more likely at BHB. N wind 5 kts.

Friday...Generally MVFR at Aroostook County terminals due to ceilings, with this MVFR developing roughly 8-12z. Generally VFR at BGR/BHB. N wind 5-10 kts.

Friday Night...Mostly VFR early, but a decent chance of fog later on which could lead to IFR/LIFR. Light winds.

Saturday...MVFR/IFR in early morning fog. Otherwise, VFR. S/SW winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday night...MVFR/IFR with any patchy fog late. Otherwise, VFR. Light S winds overnight.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers, and slight chance of thunderstorms, especially at northern terminals. Patchy fog possible early at southern terminals. S winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Sunday night - Monday...MVFR with rain showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Light S winds Sunday night, becoming W/SW at 5-10 kts during the day Monday. Gusts to 20 kts possible.

Monday night - Tuesday...VFR. W winds 5-10 kts, with gusts to 20 kts.

MARINE

Seas 2-5 ft through Friday night, with N/NE winds 15 kts or less becoming light Friday night.

Seas 2-4 ft this weekend through Monday. SW winds Friday night through Saturday, shifting S by Sunday. Rain possible late Sunday into Monday. Patchy fog Friday night and Saturday night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.