textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

-730 PM Update with the issuance of the 00z TAFs. Increased speed of numerous to widespread showers through Hancock and Washington counties based on current radar and satellite trends, and adjusted QPF slightly accordingly.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread rain tonight into Monday will help ease ongoing drought conditions in some areas. Rain may be heavy at times tonight into Sunday, especially across Downeast Maine.

2) Upper level low pressure keeps the chance of showers going into midweek, especially across Northern Maine.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread rain tonight into Monday will help ease ongoing drought conditions in some areas. Rain may be heavy at times tonight into Sunday, especially across Downeast Maine.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Lopres off of Cape Cod will move northeast tonight, passing just south of the Gulf of Maine. Latest CAMS and some global models suggesting that rain will slow down and shouldn't push onto the coast until closer to 21z this afternoon. Given the track of the low think the best chance for pops will be north and east of the low center overnight with the bulk of the rain occurring to the east of MDI tonight. PW values in far sern area rising to close to 99th percentile with amounts between 1.50-2.00 inches. Any rainfall will be helpful to ongoing drought conditions given that we will be in a cloudy cool pattern for the next couple days. This will allow for rainfall to get into the soils, unlikely to help streamflows which are significantly below normal.

Weak lopres will still be back over the western Gulf of Maine and becoming absorbed by the occlusion around 12z. Although pwats remain high over srn and ern half of the area have reduced pops slightly in the afternoon with parts of the area lacking forcing. Given the 160- 180% of normal PWATs (95-99th percentile) showers may produce heavy rainfall at times. Showers will be more convective during the day so uncertain where the beneficial rainfall will occur. Then throughout Sunday night, the low becomes stationary over Quebec as it rotates the moisture through the state. By Monday, the low begins to gradually move north which will decrease rain chances throughout the day. However, best chance of showers and thunderstorms will be in the northern 1/2 of the CWA closer to the vertically stacked low in Quebec.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Upper level low pressure keeps the chance of showers going into midweek, especially across Northern Maine.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure stalls over Canada, slowly meandering to the east next week. Looking at chances of rain showers in the north, on Tuesday and Wednesday. There is some instability during the afternoons, with some models hinting at 500-1,000 J/kg of CAPE, 7C/km low level lapse rates, and 30-40 kts of effective shear. PWAT values roughly 1.00-1.25", so rain showers expected to be mostly light, with higher totals possible in any convection. That being said, not anticipating severe weather. Temperatures drop Tuesday into the upper-60s to low-70s, and raise back to the 70s on Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Tonight...MVFR/IFR late at northern Aroostook terminals as rain moves in from the south. LIFR at HUL, BGR and BHB by around midnight EDT in rain and fog. ENE winds 5kts.

Sunday...IFR/LIFR at all terminals in low cigs and showers throughout the day. E to SE winds 5-10kts.

Sunday night...IFR in showers and fog. ESE winds 5kts.

Monday-Wednesday: MVFR or lower likely at northern terminals. MVFR possible at KBGR, with VFR likely at KBHB. S winds Monday, becoming SW Tuesday. LLWS possible Monday night. W-NW winds G15-20KT possible Wednesday.

Wednesday night-Thursday: VFR. Light winds overnight, becoming S/SW at 5-10 kts.

MARINE

Winds below 10kts through Sunday night with seas between 2-4 feet through the period. Rain and patchy fog reduce visibilities at times.

Slight chance of winds or seas reaching 25 kts/5 ft Monday- Tuesday. A chance for thunderstorms on Monday. Chance for fog late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Winds from the S on Monday, becoming SW on Tuesday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.