textproduct: Caribou
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.
- Lowered dew points today with a well mixed boundary layer to 800mb.
- Made adjustments lowering high temperatures Downeast on Wednesday with a stronger southerly seabreeze developing.
- Confidence has increased in the above normal temperatures this week.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Above normal temperatures are expected through this weekend with shower chances returning later Wednesday into Thursday.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures are expected through this weekend with shower chances returning later Wednesday into Thursday.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A broad upper level ridge is expected to remain in place across the Hudson Bay into eastern Canada and the northeast US this week, leading to persistent above normal temperatures with daytime highs generally in the upper 70s to well into the 80s through this weekend. Dew points will generally remain comfortable in the 50s, lessening heat related impacts. Heat risk is generally in the minor category, suggesting any heat related issues will be mostly confined to vulnerable populations. The warmest day closer to the Downeast coast will be today before winds become lighter and out of the south with the daily sea breeze on Wednesday and beyond.
A weak disturbance cutting underneath the ridge near the US- Canada border will provide moisture for cloud cover and showers late Wednesday into early Thursday. The greatest chances will be across western areas, where a rumble of thunder is possible but confidence is low. The combination of poor mid level lapse rates and minimal instability with MLCAPEs less than 500 j/kg will preclude much of a thunder risk in the CWA. A few more chances of thunderstorms late week into next weekend.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Today...High confidence in VFR with some clouds around 12K and above. W wind increasing to around 10 kts with gusts 15-20 kts around 14z. Winds becoming SW around 18z at BHB.
Tuesday night...VFR. Winds light and variable.
Wednesday...VFR. Light and variable winds becoming S 5-10kt in the late morning to afternoon.
Thursday-Thursday night: VFR, with MVFR or lower possible due to rain showers at southern terminals early. Light S winds.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with a slight chance of a shower. SE winds 5-10 kts.
Friday night-Saturday: MVFR or lower possible. S-SW winds G15-20KT possible.
MARINE
Winds and seas will remain below advisory criteria on the coastal ocean waters through Saturday. The waters will see winds of 20 kt or less and seas of 5 ft or less during this time frame. Wind may briefly gust up to 25kt on the waters 35-60nm offshore Wednesday evening.
Water temperatures have moderated slightly over the past couple weeks to between 46 and 50 degrees.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None. MARINE...None.
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