textproduct: Caribou

SYNOPSIS

High pressure slides offshore on today. A weak area of low pressure crosses the Gulf of Maine tonight, followed by a stronger low tracking from the Great Lakes Wednesday morning, to across Maine Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This low then slowly lifts northeast through the maritimes into Friday night. Another storm system approaches from the Great Lakes on Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Update... Temperatures early this morning have plummeted well below zero in areas where the wind has become calm. Bangor has set a new record low for this date. They were down to -11F at last check. This broke the previous record low of -10F set back in 1970.

Just minor adjustments to hourly temperatures otherwise no other changes.

previous discussion

Key Message

*Light snow Downeast areas tonight

High pressure centered to our south will drift east today and out into the atlantic waters to the south of Nova Scotia. Expect a mainly sunny start to the day followed increasing mid and high level cloudiness. The return flow around the high will bring slightly milder afternoon high temperatures today, although it will still be several degrees below normal for the this date.

A fast moving short wave will approach from the west this evening and cross the region overnight. This feature will primarily impact Downeast areas tonight with a quick inch or two of snow by sunrise Wednesday. A weak surface low will develop across the Gulf of Maine overnight, possibly enhancing snowfall a bit across coastal Washington county. Lows tonight will occur early in the evening and then gradually rise overnight.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Key Messages: *Potential for advisory level snowfall in the north Wednesday into Wednesday night *Gusty winds Thursday into the weekend

Discussion... Shortwave proceeds to move northeast of Maine, as snow showers dwindle Downeast. Chance for some rain/snow mix along the immediate coast. Immediately following this shortwave, a stacked low pressure system moves in from the Great Lakes, bringing good moisture source into Maine alongside some warm air advection ahead of an associated warm front. Temperatures on Wednesday raise in the mid-to-upper 20s in the north, low-to-mid 30s in the interior Downeast, and low-40s along the immediate coast. Because of these warming temperatures, expect rain during the day along the Downeast coast. Interior Downeast has precipitation beginning as snow in the morning, and then transitioning over to rain during the day. Generally, precipitation stays as snow in the region north of Houlton and Greenville. Expecting about 3-5 inches of accumulating snowfall in the north from this system. These totals are going to heavily depend on the track of the low pressure system, which is relatively uncertain at this time. Most models have the low staying to the northwest of Maine, but how close to the Maine border the low gets will determine how much cold air is able to get brought inland, affecting the rain/snow line. Overnight lows Wednesday night in the 20s.

Thursday, low system moves northeast away from the region. Could be some light snow showers in the north on the backside of the departing low. High pressure to the south helps to form a tightening pressure gradient between the two systems, causing some gusty winds Thursday into Friday. Maximum temperatures on Thursday in the 20s in the north, and 30s Downeast. Gusty winds persist into to the evening, with overnight lows in the single digits in the north and teens Downeast. Wind chills Thursday night below zero.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Key Messages: *Gusty winds on Friday *Chance for snow this weekend

Discussion... Low continues to move northeast away from Maine on Friday. Wind gusts bring pressure gradient to increase, as a passing jet streak could cause some 25-30mph wind gusts to mix down to the surface in some locations, predominantly in the north, Downeast, and higher elevations. Weak ridging builds in Saturday morning, as another low to the west begins to move towards Maine. Generally highs in the 20s and teens, and lows in the teens to single digits.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

NEAR TERM: VFR conditions expected all terminals through this evening. Except MVFR or lower conditions are possible at KBGR/KBHB in developing -SN after 05z Wednesday. SW wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming light South tonight.

SHORT TERM: Wednesday...MVFR lowering to IFR from south to north. S winds across the south and SE winds across the north around 5 kt. Chance for some LLWS in the north during the evening.

Wednesday night...IFR to LIFR. S winds that shift SW wind around 5-10 kt.

Thursday...IFR improving to MVFR by mid morning in snow showers in the north, and rain Downeast. VFR south and MVFR north in the afternoon. W wind 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt.

Thursday night...MVFR north and VFR south. W wind 5 to 10 kt.

Friday...MVFR north and VFR south. W wind 10 to 15 kt gusting to 30 kt.

Friday night...MVFR north becoming VFR. VFR south. W wind 10 kt.

Saturday...MVFR, possibly lowering to IFR at times south. W wind 5 to 10 kt.

MARINE

NEAR TERM: Wind/seas will remain below SCA levels today and then increase to SCA levels early this evening and continue through tonight.

SHORT TERM: Small Craft Advisory conditions expected Wednesday, and Gale conditions expected Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night. Wave heights get as high at 10 ft Wednesday night. Waves stay elevated, around 7-8 ft through Thursday. Winds from the SW Wednesday, shifting S Wednesday evening, and turning SW again early Thursday. Rain expected Wednesday into Thursday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ050>052. Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday night for ANZ050>052.