textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Small craft advisory now in place for the coastal waters beginning 2 PM Thursday

- Dry weather anticipated to continue through at least early next week

KEY MESSAGES

1) Generally dry weather through early next week. Drought conditions will worsen.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Generally dry weather through early next week. Drought conditions will worsen.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Tonight into Thursday, the ongoing ridge of high pressure will begin to shift eastward, allowing for stronger return flow out of the SW to advect warmer air into the region. Highs on Thursday will rebound, in fact soar above average for this time of the year, lifting into the low to mid 60s throughout the forecast area.

Another cold front will cross the forecast area early Friday morning, and will again be mostly moisture starved. There is a chance for scattered rain showers along this boundary, however, rainfall amounts are likely to remain below a tenth of an inch, with no improvement to drought conditions.

High pressure returns through the weekend, keeping the pattern dry. Heading into early next week will be the next low pressure system, with a primary and secondary FROPA currently projected to cross our CWA sometime late Monday into Tuesday. That said, given the steep negative tilt of the upper level trough, moisture will struggle to support precipitation along this boundary, and showers may once more yield little to no measurable precipitation: again, no improvement to drought conditions.

Otherwise, the dry conditons is bad news for the ongoing water resources drought impacting the state. Much of Northern Maine, Central Highlands and Eastern Downeast Maine are experiencing only 50-75% of normal precipitation over the last 30 days. While in the last 14 days areawide is less than 90% of normal. Overall, 30 day Standardized Precipitation Index blend has the Northern 2/3rd of the CWA in the Moderate to Severe Dryness category with portions of the Upper St. John Basin now dipping into the Extreme Dryness category.

There is 38 USGS streamflow gages across the CWA which remain dismal, with 26 out of the 38 ranked Much Below Normal (<10th percentile). USGS Groundwater sites continue to show struggling groundwater conditions, Clayton Lake is at Record Low (deep) conditions on record (35 year POR). Millinocket, Kenduskeag, Hadley Lakes and Calais all reporting Below to Much Below Normal conditions. Fort Kent is very low end of Normal conditions approaching slipping down into Below Normal conditions. Therefore, the US Drought Monitor continues the entire CWA in at least Moderate Drought with 58% of the CWA in Severe Drought, this has the potential to worsen with continued precipitation deficits.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Tonight through Thursday...VFR. S to SW winds around 5 kts tonight, increasing to 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to around 20 kts by Thursday afternoon. WSW LLWS at KFVE tonight around 40 kts. SW LLWS around 40 kts likely across all terminals beginning late Thursday afternoon ahead of front.

Thursday night-Friday...VFR/MVFR with chance rain showers, particularly across terminals from KHUL northwards. LLWS likely through Thursday evening to around midnight Thursday night ahead of frontal passage. SW winds 5 to 15 kts becoming NW early Friday morning 10 to 15 kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts.

Friday night-Saturday...VFR. NW winds 5 to 15 kts.

Saturday night-Monday...VFR. Winds light and variable, shifting SW at 5 to 15 kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts Sunday and Monday afternoons.

MARINE

Light winds and seas less than 3 ft through Thursday morning with southwest winds increasing to marginal SCA levels over the coastal and outer waters later Thursday into Friday morning. Seas increase to 5 ft over the coastal waters and 6 ft over the outer waters during this time before dropping Friday morning. A small craft advisory is now in place for the Coastal waters beginning 2 PM Thursday for these low end advisory conditions. NW winds Fri night through Sat likely less than 25 kts. Minimal fog on the waters through the weekend.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 9 AM EDT Friday for ANZ050-051.