textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Increased confidence in snow melt and rain amounts..

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures through the end of this week, along with multiple rounds of rainfall, will lead to continued, if not complete, ice break up on all northern rivers.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures through the end of this week, along with multiple rounds of rainfall, will lead to continued, if not complete, ice break up on all northern rivers.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The region will remain under a deep layered ridge Monday night through Saturday, with multiple shortwaves embedded in the mean westerly flow passing through the region during this time frame.

The result will be a continued warming of temperatures through the week, as well as multiple rounds of rain across the region. The combination of the increasing temperatures (with most areas likely will see temperatures remain above freezing during this time frame), along with the periods of rainfall, result in the flushing out of ice across most, if not all northern rivers. Thawing degree hours will be well above 1,000 and possibly exceeding 2,000. In addition the unseasonably mild temperatures and rainfall should melt the remaining snow cover across the North, except for that inside forests/well covered by trees. The combined result of the snow and ice melt, along with the aforementioned precipitation could cause the minor flooding of known poor drainage areas/low spots, especially at those locations highly prone to ice jam flooding.

The first of the shortwaves exits to the east Monday night, with some isolated to scattered showers and lows around 15-20 degrees above normal.

The next shortwave approaches Tuesday afternoon then crosses the area Tuesday night. This could produce around 0.1-0.75 inches of rainfall. Highs on Tuesday should be around 5 to 15 degrees above normal, with the largest departure across interior Downeast Maine, the Bangor/Penobscot Region and the southern Central Highlands.

The next shortwave approaches Wednesday night, passes to the north Thursday and Thursday night, followed by the passage of a stronger northern stream shortwave trough Friday. Models differ on the timing and strength of these shortwaves, but all indicate the potential for at least 0.25 inches of rainfall. Temperatures continue to be well above normal, with lows mainly in the 40s and highs on Friday from around 60 to the mid 60s across the interior, but still quite a bit cooler near the immediate coast.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

This Afternoon...VFR. W to SW wind 5 to 10 kt.

Tonight....VFR this evening, then MVFR/IFR developing after 08z. Light S wind 5 to 10 kt. LLWS late.

Monday...MVFR/IFR. Rain. S wind 10 to 20 kt becoming SW. LLWS early.

Monday Night...MVFR. NW wind around 10 kt.

Tuesday...VFR, with a low chance of MVFR late. Light and variable winds.

Tuesday night: MVFR or lower possible. LLWS possible. SSE winds 5-10 kts.

Wednesday: VFR. Light and variable winds.

Wednesday night-Thursday...IFR or lower possible. LLWS possible Thursday. Light and variable winds Wed night, then ESE winds 5-10 kts.

Friday...MVFR/IFR in rain. Variable winds around 5 kts.

MARINE

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect from late tonight through Monday night.

SCA conditions are then probable on the coastal ocean waters Tuesday, with sub-SCA conditions elsewhere. All waters should then see sub-SCA conditions from Tuesday night-Friday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ052.