textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Slowing trend continues on rainfall for mid-late week. Rain could hold off until Thursday.

- Confidence increased on warmer temperatures today through Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry weather with warmer than average temperatures through Tuesday.

2) A system is likely to move in later in the week, bringing another round of wetting rainfall into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Dry weather with warmer than average temperatures through Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure will remain to the east of the region. Due to the center of the high far off to the east, strong enough subsidence will keep the region dry. In addition, wide pressure gradients will keep the winds fairly weak. In combination with the upper level trof bringing warm southerly air, temps will increase into the low 80s today and Tuesday. Low dewpoints will keep humidity low.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A system is likely to move in later in the week, bringing another round of wetting rainfall into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... As is often the case, models are trending slower with the timing of a developing cutoff low that tracks from somewhere near NE PA/SE NY/NW NJ Wednesday to near Long Island by Thursday morning as the system becomes vertically stacked. The cutoff low tracks slowly ENE into the Gulf of Maine by Friday morning, and into the southern Maritimes by Saturday morning, as the system gradually opens up as it weakens. The surface low follows a similar if not identical track to the upper system from Thursday into Saturday.

Most 00z guidance slows down precipitation until after 12z Thursday. Do have chance pops over most of the area Wednesday night for now, but this likely is overdone.

There is some indication that the precipitation instead of being widespread over all of Northern and Eastern Maine, could be more concentrated in the Bangor Region and Downeast Maine than areas further north. It appears any rain should taper off Friday night or Saturday morning, depending on exactly how quickly the storm exits into the Maritimes (note systems like this do tend to pick up speed as they open up). However a widespread rainfall late this week over the entire region cannot yet be ruled out from Thursday into late Friday night/Saturday morning.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Today...VFR. S/SE wind 5-10 kts.

Tonight-Tuesday...VFR. Light and variable winds tonight, S winds 5-10 kts Tuesday.

Tuesday night-Wednesday night: VFR, except for low chance MVFR or lower in any patchy fog late at night/early in the morning.

Thursday-Friday: IFR or lower possible at northern terminals and likely at southern terminals.

MARINE

Winds and seas will remain fairly calm through Tuesday.

The coastal waters should see winds 15 kt or less and seas 4 ft or less Tuesday night and Wednesday, with winds 25 kt or less and seas 5 ft or less on the outer waters.

SCA conditions are possible on the coastal ocean waters Wednesday night into Thursday on the coastal ocean waters, with gusts up to 30 kt possible on the outer waters, with the intra- coastal waters likely remaining below SCA levels.

Winds should be 10 kt or less on all waters Thursday night - Friday. There is some chance for seas of 5-6 ft on the coastal and outer waters during this time frame, depending on the strength of a forecast easterly swell.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.