textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Confidence increased in temperatures and showers.

- Added patchy fog into the forecast for this evening and tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A strong system tonight through Saturday is expected to bring widespread rain with some snow over the north tonight and strong winds tonight into Saturday.

2) Generally dry weather Sunday through late next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong system tonight through Saturday is expected to bring widespread rain with some snow over the north tonight and strong winds tonight into Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The low pressure system is centered to the west over Quebec and will continue to track ENE. As of this update the warm front has stretched over the St John Valley, which has brought temp above freezing across the region. The next round of rain ahead of the approaching cold front will continue to move from W to E through the rest of the afternoon. For tonight, the temps will continue to warm, keeping all remaining precip as rain. After sunset, but before midnight, the cold front will move through the region, gradually dropping temps into the 30s as NW winds increase. For Saturday, the remaining shortwave energy behind the front should create some showers in the north. Any showers on the back side of the cold front will be in the form of isolated snow showers in the North Woods.

In addition, the approaching high pressure behind the exiting low will tighten pressure gradients on Saturday. Winds gust are expected to reach up to 35 mph, creating possible isolated power outages.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Generally dry weather Sunday through late next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... High pressure will generally control the weather Sunday through late next week. Several frontal passages will occur during that time. However, with only limited moisture available expect that the frontal passages will generally be dry.

AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Rest of Today...IFR/LIFR cigs and vsby due to rain. S winds 10-15 kts with gust up to 30 kts.

Tonight...IFR/LIFR conditions early, then becoming MVFR cigs after the rain ends. After midnight, VFR for all terminals. WNW winds 10-15 kts with gusts up to 30 kts.

Saturday-Sat night...VFR. NW winds 10-20 kts with gusts up to 35 kts Saturday. Then WNW winds around 5 kts Sat night. Sunday through Wednesday...Variable conditions in any patchy overnight fog. Otherwise, VFR. Southwest/south winds 5 to 10 knots Sunday. South winds 5 to 10 knots Sunday night. South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Monday. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots Monday night. North winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Tuesday, then 5 to 10 knots Tuesday night. North/northeast winds 10 to 15 knots Wednesday.

MARINE

A Small Craft Advisory continues through Sat night. Winds will reach up to 25 kts and waves will reach 4-8 ft.

Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Sunday through Monday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Saturday night for ANZ050>052.