textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers with possible thunderstorms late this afternoon and early this evening over Northern Maine.

2) Cooler than normal temperatures are expected Thursday through next weekend, along with the chance for showers.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers with possible thunderstorms late this afternoon and early this evening over Northern Maine.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Today will be the warmest day of the week with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. This will be dramatically warmer than yesterday. The warmer airmass will be drawn in from the southwest ahead of an approaching low pressure from the northwest. Instability increases ahead of the low pressure, enough for the risk of some storms in the far north/northwest mid to late afternoon. One problem is that the system arrives just a bit late to tap into the maximum daytime heating. The best dynamics occur near or just after sunset. This means that while there may be some storms in the north, most likely they will not be severe as we will be losing our daytime heating as the bulk of the shower/storm activity moves through Northern Maine. Feel pretty confident that the far north will get some decent rain totals very late afternoon/early evening, with some places from Caribou north topping one half inch. One thing to watch for is if any convection can fire mid-afternoon ahead of the main area of showers/storms further northwest. If we get any of these discrete cells out ahead, as a few CAMs have hinted it, they could be on the stronger side. But more likely, we will just see some showers with a few embedded non-severe storms in the far north late afternoon/early evening.

Further south, little if any rain is expected this afternoon/evening, as the low pressure center and best upper level dynamics will be tracking from NW to SE over far Northern Maine.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler than normal temperatures are expected Thursday through next weekend, along with the chance for showers.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... An unsettled weather pattern is expected mid-week right through next weekend as upper level troughing persists across northern New England. This will result in temperatures remaining generally below normal for this time of year, with the exception of Wednesday, when high temperatures are actually expected to be above normal over Downeast, while the cooler air begins to work into Northern Maine. With the upper trough and cold air aloft across the area, there will be the chance for a few showers from time to time Wednesday to Sunday, especially during the afternoon hours with diurnal instabilty.

One thing to watch is a strong slow-moving vertically stacked low pressure system that is likely to pass from north to south just west of us from late Friday into Saturday. Right now, the majority of solutions keep the heavier rain just west of us, with our area just getting scattered showers. However, a notable minority bring the low pressure a touch further east, and if this happens, we could get a period of steadier rain with totals possibly over one inch. The greater chance for the more significant rain would be western and southern portions of our area, such as from Greenville to Bangor to the Hancock County coast.

Also of note with the below average temperatures, readings will be especially cool at higher elevations. In fact, we can't rule out some snow at some point in the Thursday to Saturday period for higher elevations. With people starting to hike many of Maine's peaks, things can get quite dangerous when wintry weather is encountered and people are expecting summer conditions. Be sure and check our recreation forecasts at weather.gov/car/recreation the day before and the early morning of your planned hike.

One final issue to keep an eye on is the potential for frost. Right now, odds favor no frost for the Thursday night to Saturday night period due to more cloudcover in general, but if we get a clearer night, frost could occur.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Rest of Tonight...Generally VFR, though some localized MVFR cigs persist mainly in the far north at FVE. Also, can't rule out localized ground fog at any of the terminals. Light wind.

Tuesday...VFR. Mid to late afternoon, from PQI north the potential for TS exists, with SHRA likely. Winds W to SW at 5 to 10 kts, and higher gusts around TS possible in the late afternoon at northern terms.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday...Generally MVFR/IFR at Aroostook terminals, with generally VFR with possible MVFR at Downeast terminals such as BGR/BHB. SW wind shifting to the NW and increasing to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts Wednesday afternoon.

Wednesday Night to Saturday...Mainly VFR BGR/BHB and MVFR or VFR HUL/PQI/CAR/FVE. Showers possible. N wind 5 to 15 kts with higher gusts during the day.

MARINE

Seas fall below small craft levels later today into tonight and should remain below small craft levels into the weekend.

Winds generally below small craft levels, but there is a 40 percent chance of small craft winds to 25 kts from the NE Friday night/Saturday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050- 051. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ052.