textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Increasing confidence in at least half an inch of storm total rain over much of the forecast area Sunday night through the day on Monday

KEY MESSAGES

1) Fair weather this weekend will give way to a return of rain Sunday night through Monday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Fair weather this weekend will give way to a return of rain Sunday night through Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure continues through the day on Sunday, keeping dry weather and light winds in place. Temperatures remain mild, with highs in the 70s across the forecast area. Clear skies tonight into early Sunday morning will allow for efficient radiational cooling and could result in low temperatures dipping into the upper 40s across the north, and lower 50s Downeast.

The left exit region of an incoming jet streak aloft Sunday night into Monday will support an incoming low pressure system, with rain entering our area from the west after midnight Sunday night. There is increasing consensus that a coastal low will develop along a front as it crosses the CWA, which could locally enhance rainfall amounts Downeast. Rainfall totals may approach or even exceed an inch through the day on Monday, particularly in areas of upslope flow such as the Central Highlands and into the Bangor region due to the development of the coastal low.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Tonight...VFR, with possible brief IFR fog again at PQI and HUL late. NW winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 15 kts early will become light and variable overnight.

Sunday...VFR, with increasing VFR level cloud cover through the day. SSW winds around 5 kts.

Sunday night-Monday night: VFR trending towards MVFR/IFR in rain showers. Fog possible Monday night. S winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts possible, becoming light and variable Monday night. LLWS possible.

Tuesday-Tuesday night: VFR. N wind around 5 kts becoming variable overnight.

Wednesday: VFR early, with increasing chance for MVFR/IFR from KHUL northwards into the afternoon as showers and thunderstorms move into the area. SW winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts.

Thursday: Improving towards VFR. Winds W to NW at 5 to 10 kts.

MARINE

Winds below 20 kts and seas below 5 ft across all waters tonight through Sunday. Wind gusts may approach 25 kts on the outer waters on Monday, while seas lift towards 3 to 6 ft Monday afternoon. Coastal waters could see marginal small craft advisory criteria Monday afternoon through Monday night before seas diminish once more into the day on Tuesday. Rain late Sunday night into Monday could limit visibility at times.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029- 030. MARINE...None.