textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Increasing confidence in rain and gusty winds Wednesday night and Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Chilly overnight Tuesday night. Slight chance for frost in the north.

2) Rain chances remain limited through midweek, accompanied by near to below normal temperatures. The next best chance for precipitation arrives Wednesday night into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Chilly overnight Tuesday night. Slight chance for frost in the north.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Cool airmass moves over northern Maine Tuesday night. There is a chance for atmospheric decoupling early in the night, as skies clear out. This will help temperatures to drop into the 30s. Potential for northern areas in northern Aroostook to drop into the low-to-mid 30s, which could lead to some frost development. Frost chances are going to be highly dependent on the timing of some high level clouds moving in late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. If the clouds move in earlier in the night, temperatures will stabilize faster. If clouds move in slower, then there is more time for the temperatures to drop with clear skies.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances remain limited through midweek, accompanied by near to below normal temperatures. The next best chance for precipitation arrives Wednesday night into Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure system begins to approach from the northwest in Canada, tracking eastward and passing over Maine Wednesday night into Thursday. Rain moves in from the west Wednesday night, and continues to track east until it leaves the region Thursday night. Global models are predicting PWATs around 1.8-1.9 inches, which would be well over the 90th percentile and potentially over the daily max PWAT record in Caribou. There will be plenty of dry air that this system will need to overcome Wednesday night. Models hinting at generally a widespread 0.5 inches of rainfall, with a chance for isolated areas of higher rainfall.

Not anticipating much in terms of convection with this rain system, with relatively low CAPE, shear, and lapse rates. Chance for a low level jet to move over the region along with the associated occluding front, which could bring gusty winds along the Downeast coast and over the waters. Warm occlusion ahead of the cold front brings warmer temperatures into the Central Highlands, Bangor, and Downeast regions on Thursday, in the upper-70s to low-80s with dew points in the 60s.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Today...VFR. North/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Tonight...VFR early, then VFR/MVFR with isolated to scattered showers overnight moving from north to south. West/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Tuesday...Isolated showers possible central and Downeast areas early morning, moving from north to south. VFR/MVFR early. Otherwise, VFR. North/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Tuesday night-Wednesday...VFR overnight into the morning, MVFR/IFR in the evening as rain moves in from the west. Light winds Tuesday night, becoming S winds 5-15 kts on Wednesday.

Wednesday night-Thursday...MVFR/IFR for cigs/vsby due to rain and potential fog. S winds 10-15 kts Wednesday night, then shifting to W winds on Thursday 10-15 kts, with gusts up to 30 kts Wednesday night and Thursday.

Thursday night-Friday...VFR. W winds Thursday night, becoming NW on Friday at 5-15kts. Gusts to 25kt possible Friday afternoon.

MARINE

Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today through Wednesday. Isolated showers possible late tonight through early Tuesday. By Wednesday night, winds should increase to SCA levels in the coastal, and possibly intercoastal, waters. Potential for gales in the outer waters. Seas expected to reach 6-10 ft in the coastal waters and 9-11 ft in the outer waters. By Thursday evening/night, winds and seas should decrease in the afternoon below SCA. Seas fall below 5ft Friday. Rain possible Wednesday night into Thursday evening. N winds Tuesday night, becoming S/SE on Wednesday, and SW by Thursday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029- 030. MARINE...None.