textproduct: Caribou

SYNOPSIS

Strong low pressure will track northwest of the area today then continue through Eastern Canada tonight. High pressure will build to our south on Saturday. Low pressure will track into Quebec Saturday night and continue to our north on Sunday. High pressure will build in on Monday and slide to our south on Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

* Key Messages: 1) For the coast and interior Downeast, including the Bangor region, strong to damaging winds later today and early this evening, with scattered power outages possible. For the north, strong winds later today and early this evening, lingering into Saturday morning, with isolated power outages possible.

2) Rain for the entire area today into early this evening along with significant snowmelt. Poor drainage water ponding is expected. Total snowpack loss for most areas.

3) Temperatures fall below freezing later Friday night, with a flash freeze possible on the roads, mainly in the north.

What Has Changed: * Significant tweaking of wind hazards, including a later start time for Downeast (mid to late afternoon today), an expansion of the high wind warning to all of Hancock County and into Southern Penobscot including Bangor, expansion of wind advisories to all areas, and an earlier start of wind advisories in the north (mid-afternoon today instead of midnight tonight).

Key Message 1... Wind is the biggest threat overall. This is not a high end high wind event (we have seen worse), but still, do expect impacts that are typically seen about 2-4 times per season. Vigorous cold front approaches with strong winds aloft. Winds will be from the south today into early evening ahead of the cold front. It will take some time to mix down the winds. Thus have delayed the start of wind headlines Downeast. We are looking at a short 3-6 hour period of the highest winds from about 1-7pm, with the worst winds around 4-7pm. Added all zones north of Bangor to an earlier start to the wind advisory, as think that winds will mix down fairly well with heavier showers and convection with the front itself 4-7pm. There may even be a line of heavy showers/possible storms associated with the front that will enhance the mixing. We've seen situations before when the south wind has been underwhelming until the front itself comes through and convection with the front mixes winds down fast, and think we could be seeing this again late this afternoon/early this evening. Perhaps a slight lull in winds behind the cold front, but then westerly winds pick up later tonight and Saturday morning as the colder air moves in. This round of winds will be strongest in the north, and have continued wind advisories there into the morning Saturday. Further isolated power outages are possible. Winds then ease Saturday afternoon.

It is worth noting that coastal flooding is NOT expected despite the strong southerly wind.

Key Message 2... Around a half to inch and quarter inch of rain is expected. Nothing terribly heavy, but the rain, coupled with snowmelt and decimation of the snowpack will lead to localized flooding of poor drainage areas. Probably nothing more than nuisance flooding, but will have to keep an eye out. Think that larger streams and rivers should remain in check with no issues. Rain will taper off abruptly after the cold front moves through early this evening.

Key Message 3... Flash freeze of wet roads is a concern tonight, but not a certainty. Biggest threat is in the north, where there is about a four hour gap between when the rain ends and temperatures fall below freezing. There will be some wind during this four hour period, so it is possible that some roads could dry out in time. It will be a close call. The time lag between ending of rain and sub-freezing temperatures is about 7 hours Downeast, which hopefully will be long enough to keep most roads from freezing. At the least, look for sidewalks and driveways to become icy, and probably some side roads. Main roads, as mentioned above, are a tougher call as this isn't a slam-dunk flash freeze scenario.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

A weak area of low pressure will track from Western Ontario into Quebec Saturday night spreading snow across northern areas late at night. Even though this system is tracking to our northwest, it will not be strong enough to pull enough warm air north to change snow to rain. The fast moving system will bring an inch or two of snow over the north from late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

By Sunday morning a fresh covering of snow will hide residual icy patches from the refreeze the previous night resulting in a dangerous slip hazard in some walkways and driveways. Otherwise, any snow over the north will taper off to snow showers around mid- morning Sunday. Enough warm air will lift north to nudge temps just above freezing over the north and in the low 40s near the coast with partial clearing.

Low pressure will continue across Quebec Sunday night pulling cold air back across the area. Temps by early Monday morning will be in the low to mid teens over the region with strong gusty northwesterly winds.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Low pressure moving away to our northeast combined with high pressure building to our south will bring strong gusty northwesterly winds on Monday with a return of Arctic air. Highs will only be from the mid to upper teens north to the mid 20s near the coast with sunshine south and a mix of sun and clouds over the north.

Winds will diminish Monday night as high pressure slides to our south. The sky will begin mostly clear. Clouds will then increase ahead of a weather disturbance late Monday night into Tuesday and some light snow may spread across the area on Tuesday as the weak wave moves across. Any snow will probably amount to an inch or less across the region. Some patchy light snow may continue into Wednesday as the weak wave continues across. The sky will then trend clearer later Wednesday as the disturbance moves away to the east and high pressure builds in from the west.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

NEAR TERM: LLWS all sites through today and into early Friday evening. South winds increase all sites today and become quite strong and gusty with gusts to around 40 kts especially from 18z-0z before shifting to the west and easing some. Still remaining gusty especially in the north through Saturday morning. Conditions already IFR BGR/BHB, and going down to IFR in the north by about 12z. Remaining IFR or lower through about 0-2z tonight, then rapidly improving to VFR and generally remaining VFR through Saturday.

SHORT TERM: Saturday night...VFR to MVFR south. VFR to IFR north. S winds. SW wind shear likely.

Sunday...IFR north becoming MVFR. VFR south. SW wind shear, esp in the morning.

Sunday night...MVFR north VFR south. Gusty NW winds.

Monday...VFR. Gusty NW winds.

Monday night...VFR. Gusty NW winds decreasing and becoming W.

Tuesday...VFR dropping to MVFR, SW winds.

MARINE

NEAR TERM: Pushed back start time for storm warning to 1pm. High confidence still in storm force southerly winds. Winds shift to westerly this evening and are then gale force through Saturday morning. Seas peak around 19 feet this evening.

SHORT TERM: A gale warning will likely be needed Saturday night into Monday morning for strong WNW winds. The winds will drop to SCA Monday then below SCA Monday night. A SCA may be needed late Tuesday, building to a gale Tuesday night into Wednesday. Seas building up to 10 ft Saturday night into Sunday then subsiding to 6 ft Monday and 2 ft Tuesday before building back up to 8 ft Tuesday night then back to 6 ft Wednesday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EST Saturday for MEZ001>006-010-031. Wind Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST this evening for MEZ011-032. High Wind Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for MEZ015-016-029-030. Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for MEZ017. MARINE...Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ050>052.