textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Increased sky cover across the north today, and added isolated showers. - Increased thunderstorm chances Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) An unsettled weather pattern will bring multiple rounds of precipitation through Monday. Areas of fog Saturday night into Sunday morning, along with a few Sunday thunderstorms, could create hazardous travel conditions and disrupt outdoor plans.

2) Dry conditions Tuesday into Wednesday will give the region a break from recent soaking rainfall as the growing season approaches.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... An unsettled weather pattern will bring multiple rounds of precipitation through Monday. Areas of fog Saturday night into Sunday morning, along with a few Sunday thunderstorms, could create hazardous travel conditions and disrupt outdoor plans.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Quiet most of the day today, with just some clouds and isolated showers mainly in the north. However, a cold front and upper trough begin approaching from the west tonight. First, we will see rain move into coastal Downeast just before sunset. This rain will progress northeast through the evening. Most of the rain through sunrise Sunday will be south/east of I-95, with totals up to around 0.5 inch with the higher totals toward eastern Washington County, and amounts tapering off to nothing tonight over far northern/western portions of the area. Fog tonight could be an issue, especially toward the coast. Not anticipating dense fog at this time, but something to keep an eye on.

For Sunday, the rain should continue Downeast mainly in the morning, with perhaps an embedded thunderstorm from instability aloft. Further north/west, an approaching cold front should ignite showers and surface-based storms out ahead of it. Anticipating enough instability midday/afternoon for some thunderstorms ahead of the front, but not anticipating anything severe. Best shot at storms is from the central highlands east/northeast to southern Aroostook. By sunset Sunday, the cold front should be over central portions of the area, with the western North Woods clearing out. Rainfall during the day Sunday will be highly variable, but generally less than 0.5 inch.

Sunday night into Monday the cold front crossing the region and slows down across the Downeast coast. A weak wave of low pressure develops along the front keeping the chance of showers going mainly across the Downeast to near Bangor and inland to around Danforth. Cannot rule out some additional patchy fog in the Downeast but not as widespread. Into Monday the 500mb shortwave approaches from the west as a large ocean storm system develops well south of the area. This will keep the area under partly sunny skies, chances of showers Downeast, dry Central Highlands and some showers across Northern Maine.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry conditions Tuesday into Wednesday will give the region a break from recent soaking rainfall as the growing season approaches.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... As we are nearing the start of the growing season the recent wet pattern have delayed preparations and outdoor activities. Best chance of dry conditions is Tuesday into Wednesday. Tuesday will feature a 500mb upper level shortwave and associated cool airmass aloft with high pressure at the surface. Expecting intially sunny start but quickly expecting cu to develop with daytime heating. The boundary layer is dry so not expecting precipitation but very low end confidence for sprinkles if cu can become robust. Will need to monitor the trends of hi-res guidance as we approach. Its a cool day in the low to mid 50s for much of the Highlands north to Northern Maine with upper 50s for the Downeast and Bangor Regions and light NW breeze. Low temperatures in mid 30s. Wednesday stays dry as surface high pressure settles south of the Gulf of Maine waters and keeps the next approaching weather maker to our west. Highs into the upper 50s north and upper 50s to low 60s south.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Today... VFR, except MVFR developing just before 0z Sunday with rain developing BGR/BHB. S wind increasing to 10-15 kts.

Tonight... Deteriorating conditions from south to north, with IFR cigs or worse BGR/BHB by 4z, and eventually for northern TAF sites by 12z. S/SE wind around 10 kts. LLWS developing by 6z BGR/BHB, and by 12z for northern sites.

Sunday... IFR/LIFR early, then improvement to MVFR, though BHB may stay IFR all day. Some thunderstorms possible in the afternoon from BGR north. S wind 10-15 kts. LLWS before 18z.

Monday...VFR, slight chance of PM MVFR cigs at northern terms. VCSH/-SHRA possible at all terms. W winds 5-10kt.

Tuesday...VFR, slight chance of PM MVFR cigs at northern terms. NW winds 5-15kt, PM gusts to 20kt possible.

Wednesday...VFR. W-SW winds 5-15kt.

MARINE

Small craft winds/seas developing this evening. Winds ease below small craft Sunday afternoon, though small craft-level seas could persist into Sunday evening other than the inner waters. Some fog over the waters tonight into Sunday. Seas slowly subside below SCA criteria Sunday evening. Rain showers and fog may reduce vsby into Monday. Monday will need to monitor the trends for the need of another SCA as seas build back close to 5ft across the Coastal Waters as a storm system develops well SE of the Gulf of Maine. Winds/seas expected to be below SCA conditions Tuesday into Wednesday. Sea surface water temperatures are ranging from 39-43F from the Downeast coast out 60nm and east to the Hague Line, including Penobscot and Passamaquoddy Bays.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ050. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ051. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ052.