textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- No major changes to the forecast for this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures early to middle of next week, along with a few rounds of rainfall, will lead to continued ice break up on northern rivers.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures early to middle of next week, along with a few rounds of rainfall, will lead to continued ice break up on northern rivers.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A progressive upper level jet stream will pipe warm, tropical into the region. This will lead to well above normal temps beginning Monday through the middle of next week. High temps will be in the 50s on Monday, possibly climbing into the 60s over interior Downeast on Tuesday with offshore flow. 60-degree high temps should be fairly common over most of the area by the end of the week.

Multiple waves of low pressure and rain will move through the region over the course of the next week. The first round of rain moves through on Monday, with another expected Tuesday night into Wednesday. While these rounds of rainfall are not expected to be heavy with a progressive pattern in place, they may still be enough to bring the potential for ice movement over northern rivers. Fortunately, what remains of the ice across the north appears to be thinning and/or rotting in place. However, where ice remains it will have the potential to break up and move with Thawing Degree Hours over 1,000 in the Aroostook, St. John and Allagash Basins.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

This Afternoon...VFR/MVFR. NW wind 15 to 20 kt gusts 30 kt.

Tonight...VFR. NW wind 10 to 15 kt gusts 20 kt.

Sunday...VFR. NW wind around 10 kt, becoming W to SW.

Sunday night...VFR early, becoming MVFR/IFR late, especially KBGR/KBHB. S wind 5 to 10 kt.

Monday...MVFR/IFR in rain all terminals. S 5-15kts gusts 20-25kts in the afternoon. LLWS possible.

Monday night...Improving to VFR late. WNW 5-15kts.

Tuesday...VFR. NW 5-10kts early, light and variable late.

Tuesday night-Wednesday...MVFR/IFR in rain and fog. E 5kts becoming SE 5-10kts Wednesday.

Thursday...MVFR/IFR in rain. SSW winds 5-10 kts.

MARINE

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the outer waters through early this evening for the outerwaters. Winds/seas will subside below SCA levels Sunday, then increase to SCA levels again Sunday night.

Gales possible Monday morning. Not overly confident due to stable layer right at the surface but potential is certainly there for gales. Small craft conditions continue over all waters into Tuesday morning with seas remaining above 5ft. Waters look to remain headline-free through the end of the day on Wednesday. Marine fog possible Sunday night into Monday morning and again Tuesday night into Wednesday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050- 051.