textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Minor tweaks to the low temperatures for this morning using the NBM10th percentile.

- Added patchy river valley fog this morning but expect it to remain very low to the ground and to occur around sunrise.

- 06z TAF UPDATE. See the aviation section below.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Generally dry weather through next Sunday. Drought conditions will worsen.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Generally dry weather through next Sunday. Drought conditions will worsen.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure this morning over New England will drift over the Gulf of Maine waters today. On the backside a weak return flow develops out of the SW at 5-10mph. A warm front pushing through the Eastern Great Lakes will increase high clouds this afternoon as moisture advects in aloft. The boundary layer today remains very dry and with light winds will need to watch some fire weather concerns with dry fine fuels. By Thursday, the ridge will begin to shift eastward, allowing for stronger return flow out of the SW to advect warmer air into the region. Highs on Thursday will rebound, in fact soar above average for this time of the year, lifting into the lower 60s throughout the forecast area.

Another cold front will cross the forecast area early Friday morning, and will again be mostly moisture starved. There is a chance for scattered showers along this boundary, however rainfall amounts are likely to remain below a tenth of an inch, with no improvement to drought conditions.

Otherwise, the dry conditons is bad news for the ongoing water resources drought impacting the state. Much of Northern Maine, Central Highlands and Eastern Downeast Maine are experiencing only 50-75% of normal precipitation over the last 30 days. While in the last 14 days areawide is less than 90% of normal. Overall, 30 day Standardized Precipitation Index blend has the Northern 2/3rd of the CWA in the Moderate to Severe Dryness category with portions of the Upper St. John Basin now dipping into the Extreme Dryness category.

There is 38 USGS streamflow gages across the CWA which remain dismal, with 26 out of the 38 ranked Much Below Normal (<10th percentile). USGS Groundwater sites continue to show struggling groundwater conditions, Clayton Lake is at Record Low (deep) conditions on record (35 year POR). Millinocket, Kenduskeag, Hadley Lakes and Calais all reporting Below to Much Below Normal conditions. Fort Kent is very low end of Normal conditions approaching slipping down into Below Normal conditions. Therefore, the US Drought Monitor continues the entire CWA in at least Moderate Drought with 58% of the CWA in Severe Drought, this has the potential to worsen with continued precipitation deficits.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

06z TAF Update...

Rest of Tonight (Through 12z)...VFR with SKC. BCFG/BR possible at PQI and HUL between 09-11z but confidence is low to moderate. Light and variable winds.

Today through Thursday...VFR with SCT mid to high cigs. Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots Today through Tonight, then 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Thursday.

Thursday night-Friday...VFR/MVFR with chance rain showers, particularly across terminals from KHUL northwards. SW 5-15kts becoming NW 10-20kts.

Friday night-Saturday...VFR. NW 5-15kts

Saturday night-Sunday...VFR. Winds light and variable, shifting SW at 5 to 10 kts Sunday afternoon.

MARINE

Winds and seas below small craft advisory levels today, with diminishing winds becoming light and variable by this morning, and seas 3 feet or less.

Conditions diminish through Thursday morning with southwest winds increasing to marginal SCA levels over the coastal and outer waters into Friday morning. Seas increase to 5 ft over the coastal waters and 6 ft over the outer waters during this time before dropping Friday morning. NW winds Fri night-Sat likely less than 25 kts. Minimal fog on the waters through next weekend.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.