textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation Section for 00Z TAFs.

Removed Key message for convection this afternoon.

Added key message on fog late tonight/early Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Potential for at least locally dense fog late tonight/early Monday morning where there was heavy rain this afternoon.

2) Increasing confidence in track and timing of low Monday night into Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... 1) Potential for at least locally dense fog late tonight/early Monday morning where there was heavy rain this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... As coverage of any lingering showers/thunderstorms will continue to diminish with the continued loss of solar heating - focus changes to the potential for at least locally dense fog in areas receiving locally heavy rainfall this afternoon. This was mainly across the Bangor Region into Downeast Maine - and given marine layer nearby - this increases likelihood for at least locally dense fog in this region late tonight/early Monday morning. Farther north, convection was more isolated to scattered in nature - so any impactful fog should be more widespread. However, always a high degree of uncertainty with fog, so will continue to monitor the threat areawide. Based on the uncertainty, it is to soon to issue any statements, yet alone an advisory, on the fog for later tonight/early Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Increasing confidence in track and timing of low Monday night into Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Guidance is coming into better agreement with the storm heading into the northeast U.S. Low pressure system is currently located over nrn Missouri. System will move off to the northeast tonight into tomorrow, moving into the OH Valley by 00z Tuesday. This low then redevelops as a broad coastal low stretching from the NY Bight region to near Portland Maine by 12z Tuesday. This low should then track along the coast of Maine on Tuesday, moving into southern New Brunswick by Tuesday evening. Steady rain begins to move into CWA after midnight Monday night, continuing into Tuesday morning, then tapering off from NW to SE Tuesday afternoon. At this time it appears that the heaviest accumulations will be across Downeast Maine and the Bangor Region with 1 to 1.5 inches of rain forecast, with locally higher amounts possible in areas experiencing stronger embedded convection with in the broader stratiform rain shield. Farther north, around 0.5 to 1 inch of rain is forecast up to a Greenville to Houlton line, with generally 1/4 inch or less expected north of there. At this time there does not appear to be a significant flash flood threat, however there remains the risk across Downeast Maine and the Bangor Region for the minor flooding of known poor drainage areas and other flood prone locations with the heaviest rainfall from late Monday night into early Tuesday afternoon.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR at all terminals to get started. This should persist through the evening.

With little if any in the rain at KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL confidence in any fog is greatly reduced there. However, overall pattern is conducive to MVFR ceilings developing at those terminals late tonight/early Monday morning. Conditions should improve to VFR at those terminals from mid morning to early afternoon. Once again northern terminals could see some isolated to scattered showers with possibly a rumble of thunder Monday afternoon/early Monday evening. For now only confident enough in the occurrence of any shower/thunderstorm at any given point to put in VCSH.

With some locally heavy rainfall this afternoon, there is the potential for IFR or lower conditions to develop at KBGR and KBHB overnight into early Monday morning, with the best chance at the lowest conditions at KBHB. Southern terminals should see conditions improve to VFR by around midday Monday. At this time, confidence in any showers/thunderstorms at KBGR/KBHB Monday afternoon/early Monday evening is too low to reflect in the TAFs.

Light and variable winds throughout into Monday morning, with some terminals becoming calm overnight. Winds become S-SSE at 6 to around 10KT from mid morning to early afternoon. The strongest winds should be at KBGR/KBHB with some sea breeze enhancement of the flow.

Monday night: MVFR or lower possible at northern terminals, IFR or lower likely at southern terminals.

Tuesday - Tuesday night: MVFR or lower likely, with the best chance for IFR or lower early Tuesday morning and again late Tuesday night. A chance of thunderstorms at KFVE in the afternoon. E/SE winds 5-10G15-20KT, shifting to NW 5-10KT.

Wednesday - Wednesday night: Mainly VFR. Possible MVFR at KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL in the afternoon with showers and chance of thunderstorms. NW winds at 5 to 10 kt. Become light and variable overnight.

Thursday: Possible MVFR at KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL/KBGR, in the afternoon with showers and chance of thunderstorms. S/SE winds at 5 - 10 kt, becoming light overnight.

Friday: MVFR in scattered rain showers and possible thunderstorms. S winds around 10 kt.

MARINE

Seas range from 2-4 feet through late Monday night before increasing late. Winds generally below 25kt through late Monday night but south winds increase toward daybreak aoa 25kt over waters 25-60nm while 0-25nm will be marginal for small craft conditions very late in the period. Visibilities will be reduced in fog Monday night all waters.

Marginal SCA winds and seas on the coastal waters early Tuesday, then below SCA criteria on all waters through Friday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.