textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

*Extended the Winter Weather Advisory to 7pm tonight, as snow showers and blowing snow continue to reduce visibility and cause hazardous travel.

*Increased chances of snow Saturday afternoon into Sunday.

*Increased the probability for snow Downeast Sunday evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Gusty winds and blowing snow in the north this evening, reducing visibility and impacting travel.

2)Another shot of light snow incoming on Saturday night into Sunday.

3) Models trending with a more south track for the winter system later Sunday into early Monday, which could result in locally hazardous travel for Downeast.

4) Increasing confidence in colder temperatures by midweek, with wind chills possibly reaching around 20 below zero.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Gusty winds and blowing snow in the north this evening, reducing visibility and impacting travel.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... As this low pressure system slowly creeps east into New Brunswick, pressure gradient behind it is continuing to bring some gusty winds to the region. Entire region has seen gusts around 25 to 30 mph throughout the day. Snow currently falling from the sky has had high SLRs, which, combined with light fluffy snow already on roadsides, has been reducing visibility in the north all day. Blowing snow can accumulate on the roads, especially when drifting around, resulting in some locations having higher snow depths than others. This snow has also been covering over icy patches from Thursday nights flash freeze, resulting in slippery travel and hazardous travel conditions. Winds excepted to stay elevated until later this evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another shot of light snow incoming on Saturday night into Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... High pressure builds over Maine briefly early Saturday morning, as an occluding low pressure system begin to move into the region form the west. Relatively fast moving system, so only anticipating a few inches of accumulation, with some of the heavier snow bands setting up Downeast and/or around the Central Highlands region. Will be a decent mid-to-upper level jet moving through the areas during this time frame, with an areas of divergence and moisture developing into the area. Thinking there is a chance for roughly 1-3 inches to fall in these heavier snow areas, and around an inch possible elsewhere. Warm air will be advecting in ahead of warm front, and the intimidate coastline has a chance of seeing only rain as temperatures are expected to raise above freezing during the day. Rain/snow transition line along portions of the southern interior Downeast. Snow begins to taper off around daybreak on Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Models trending with a more south track for the winter system later Sunday into early Monday, which could result in locally hazardous travel for Downeast.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Upper level models show a positively tilts trof moving from the Great Lakes towards New England on Sunday. Surface models show a low pressure system developing off the coast of Florida and moving along the Atlantic coast throughout Sunday. By Sunday night, the system should track over the Gulf of Maine. Ensemble models show a more southerly track of the system, which would bring less moisture to Downeast. However, the cooler temps and higher snow ratios could bring snow accumulations up to 3 inches. If the ensembles still show a south track, then these amounts will be less.

KEY MESSAGE 4... Increasing confidence in colder temperatures by midweek, with wind chills possibly reaching around 20 below zero.

KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION... Upper and mid level models show the jet stream mover the state as the upper level trof begins to move across the CONUS. 850 to 925mb model temps show a digging trof of very cold air from Canada moving across the country into mid week. If the deterministic models are correct, then expect temps in the single digits for high temps and negatives for low temps. If winds become breezy, then winds chills could drop into the 20s below zero. Confidence is low but increasing with closer model trends.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL Today & Tomorrow: Generally IFR/LIFR conditions at northern terminals, from snow and blowing snow reducing visibility, and low cloud ceilings today. Cloud ceilings do begin to raise into MVFR/VFR categories by later this evening, but there could still be low flight categories from blowing snow reducing visibility. Winds from the NW gusting to around 30 kts today, slowly shifting to the SW and becoming lighter overnight. There is a potential for some LLWS this evening. Chance for ceilings to begin to drop down into MVFR categories tomorrow.

KBGR/KBHB Today & Tomorrow: Generally MVFR/VFR conditions at southern terminals, from lingering low cloud ceilings today. Cloud ceilings do begin to raise into VFR by later this afternoon. Winds from the W, with gusts up to 25-30kts possible. LLWS possible this afternoon. Winds shift to the S/SW tomorrow, as ceilings begin to drop into MVFR categories.

Sunday...MVFR/IFR in chance of snow. Light SW winds.

Sunday night...MVFR/IFR in chance of snow, improving late. Light NW winds.

Monday...MVFR or lower possible early, then VFR. WSW winds 5-10 kts.

Monday night...VFR. WSW winds 5-15 kts.

Tuesday...VFR. W winds 10-15 kts gusts to 30 kts.

Wednesday...VFR. WSW winds 5-10 kts.

MARINE

Small Craft Advisory out for the inter-coastal waters this evening. Gale Warning out for outer waters this evening. Outer waters will fall into Small Craft criteria tonight, and will persist into Saturday. Light freezing spray over all waters tonight. Rain Saturday. Winds from the W, shifting NW by tonight, and become S on Saturday,

SCA conditions Sunday to Sunday night with seas 4-6 ft. Winds increase Monday to gale force by Monday afternoon. This should remain through Wednesday morning, then decrease to SCA wind through the rest of the week.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MEZ001- 002. MARINE...Gale Warning until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ052.