textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Increased winds/wind gusts for this afternoon with stronger mixing expected.

- Extended the Small Craft Advisory for the Coastal Waters until 8AM EDT on Saturday.

- Added slight chance to chance snow showers on Saturday associated with a quick moving shortwave trof.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Well below normal temperatures through Saturday will make for a cold start to the weekend, temperatures begin moderating on Sunday.

2) Snow to a wintry mix is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday with possible travel impacts.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Well below normal temperatures through Saturday will make for a cold start to the weekend, temperatures begin moderating on Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A cold front will be sliding off the Downeast Coast this morning as winds turn northwest with strengthening cold air advection expected today. As skies break this morning with increasing sunshine hi-res models continue to show a nice dry adiabatic profile up to 4-5kft in most locations. The winds aloft are not very strong but still 20-30kt and expecting to mix that to the surface. Now 850-925mb temperatures are falling all day which means the boundary layer will struggle to get any diurnal heating even with the stronger sun angle. High temperatures will likely be this morning and with stronger CAA this afternoon expect temperatures to remain steady of tumble. Looking at low to mid 20s north with mid 30s south but falling into the teens north and 20s south this afternoon. NW winds gusting 20-30mph will send wind chills down to around 0F-5F across the north.

Tonight, continued solid model agreement showing a frigid Arctic airmass arriving. NOAA Hysplit Backward Trajectory modeling shows this airmass originated on March 19th in the Beaufort Sea portion of the Arctic Ocean near 82N latitude well north of Alaska. 850mb temps fall into the -23C to -20C range tonight and as winds relax expecting steep temperature falls. Modeled soundings suggest weak stirring of the winds possible especially in Eastern Aroostook County down to the Bangor Region and Downeast which may keep temperatures a little warmer. However, looking at the NBM Min Temp (QMD) probabilities of <0F we have 75-95 percent in the North Woods, 60-75 percent in the St. John Valley with 55-65 percent for Caribou to Houlton but 80-90 percent along Route 11 including Ashland to Oxbow. 45-55 percent chance of <0F for the Moosehead Region as well from Greenville northward. Opted to go with lows -5F to 0F for the North Woods to the Route 11 corridor including traditional cold spots like Masardis, 0-5F for Eastern Aroostook and the Moosehead Region. Then 5-10F for lows in Central Highlands, Bangor Region to Interior Downeast along The Airline then 10-15F for the Downeast Coast. Any location that sees 5-10mph winds has the potential to experience wind chills down to -10F. Bangor we are expecting a low of 10F which will be very close to the daily record low of 9F set in 1982.

Saturday remains well below normal temperatures with much lighter NW winds. Moisture will advect in aloft leading to partly to mostly sunny skies. 925mb temps during the day remain in the -14C to -11C range leading to highs in the upper teens to low 20s north, mid 20s for the Central Highlands and upper 20s to near 30F for Bangor to Downeast coast. In the afternoon cannot rule out some isolated to scattered snow showers across the North as some moisture at 700mb advects in with shortwave energy at 500mb passing through.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Snow to a wintry mix is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday with possible travel impacts.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure approaches from the Great Lakes region Tuesday night drawing a warm front toward the region. Expect overunning precipitation to develop from west to east Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. There are differing model solutions, as to be expected at this point in time. The GFS/EC solutions would bring the approaching warm front northward across the area Tuesday night through early Wednesday, followed by a cold frontal passage Wednesday afternoon.

The Canadian solution would keep the low level cold air entrenched across the area, as the frontal boundary to the south of the area, with overunning precipitation continuing into Wednesday. This would likely result in a prolonged wintry mix across northern areas with potential travel impacts.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Before 12z This Morning...BKN-OVC MVFR north becoming SCT-BKN MVFR. Across the southern terms light -RA leading to high end MVFR cigs or low end VFR cigs. -RA may briefly chance to SN before tapering. FROPA through BGR with winds shifting NW 10-15kt gusting up to 25kt. All terms will see NW winds 10-15kt gusting up to 25kt.

Today...Turning VFR. NW winds 10-15kt gusting 20-30kt.

Tonight...VFR/SKC. NW-WNW winds 5-15kt becoming 5-10kt.

Saturday...VFR. Brief MVFR vsby possible at northern terms with late day -SHSN. W-NW winds 5-15kt.

Sat night through Sun night...MVFR/VFR north in iso/sct -shsn, VFR south.

Mon...MVFR north in sct -shsn, VFR south.

Tue...MVFR sct -shsn.

MARINE

Small Craft Advisory for the Intra-Coastal Waters in effect through 8PM EDT this evening. North winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Winds will relax this afternoon and just a few gusts to 25 kt. Seas will remain elevated through the evening. Light freezing spray likely tonight. The Small Craft Advisory for the Coastal Waters is now in effect through 8AM EDT Saturday. North winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt and seas 5 to 8 ft. Winds will relax tonight and just occasionally gust to 25 kt. Seas will remain elevated through the overnight. Light freezing spray likely tonight. On Saturday NW winds will relax less than 15kt and seas subsiding to 2-4ft.

Small Craft Advisory level winds are possible Sunday into Sunday night, although a few gale force gusts are possible. Small Craft Advisory level conditions are likely through early next week

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ052.