textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Increased rain totals a little in Northern Maine for Tuesday night and Wednesday. - Slightly increased confidence in decent rainfall at some point from late Thursday through late Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Intermittent light rain from late today through Wednesday morning. A bit of drought relief in Northern Maine.

2) Potential for significant rain at some point in the late Thursday through late Saturday timeframe, but confidence is still fairly low in timing and amounts.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Intermittent light rain from late today through Wednesday morning. A bit of drought relief in Northern Maine.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Increasing clouds from the west today but mild with highs in the low to mid 60s. A chance of light rain starting late afternoon, with some areas of light rain continuing to develop into tonight. Late tonight and into Tuesday, a backdoor cold front slides through from NE to SW, cooling off temperatures. Then another upper level disturbance moves in from the west and we will see overrunning steady rainfall late Tuesday through Wednesday morning. The backdoor cold front will reverse direction and move back NE as a warm front, and after the warm front moves through the entire area by midday Wednesday, rainfall ends. We have more confidence in a decent soaking rain in the north, with likely at least one half inch from Presque Isle north, with amounts maybe even approaching one inch in the St John Valley. Amounts look lighter the further south you go, with around or a bit less than one quarter inch.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Potential for significant rain at some point in the late Thursday through late Saturday timeframe, but confidence is still fairly low in timing and amounts.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A lull in the action from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday, with a fairly warm airmass over the region. Thursday should feature 60s, with perhaps a few places reaching 70. Then rain chances increase for the late Thursday to late Saturday period. There is still a lot of uncertainty in the evolution of an approaching upper level trough and potential developing surface low pressure, but the ingredients exist for a strong storm system and soaking rain at some point in this time period. Right now, it looks like about a 50-60 percent chance of at least an inch of rain late Thursday to late Saturday, with no part of the state being more obviously favored over another. There is even a 10-15 percent chance of over 3 inches of rain. Depending on the track of a potential low pressure system, winds could be an issue as well, but there is very low confidence on this.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Today...Mainly VFR, though may see MVFR Aroostook terminals after 11z, best chance at FVE (60 percent) with 30 percent chance at CAR/PQI/HUL. Increasing clouds areawide, but cigs should be VFR at BGR/BHB. LLWS early today. WSW wind 5-10kts.

Monday night...MVFR cigs likely develop at all Aroostook terminals in the evening. BGR/BHB likely remaining VFR. Light winds.

Tuesday-Wednesday: MVFR or lower likely at all terminals Tuesday, becoming mainly IFR Tuesday night, then improving to MVFR Wednesday. LLWS possible Tuesday night.

Wednesday night-Thursday morning: VFR.

Thursday afternoon-Friday: MVFR or lower possible. S winds G15-20KT possible Thursday afternoon. LLWS possible Thursday night.

MARINE

Winds 20 kts or less and seas less than 5 ft through Wednesday night. Increased winds/seas from late Thursday to Saturday. Around a 50 percent chance of seas over 10 feet and a 40 percent chance of gales.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.