textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon Wednesday through the end of the week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain along with isolated thunderstorms today. The rain could be heavy at times across Downeast areas.

2) Continued unsettled weather Wednesday through the end of the week with showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain along with isolated thunderstorms today. The rain could be heavy at times across Downeast areas.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... At the surface, low pressure will cross the Gulf of Maine today then exit across the Maritimes tonight through Wednesday with a trof also crossing the region Wednesday. Aloft, an upper low approaches later today through tonight then crosses the region Wednesday. The steadier and heavier rains will occur across Downeast and central areas today, nearer the low track. Precipitable water values will approach 2.00 inches along the Downeast coast helping support the heavier rain. Rainfall totals Downeast today through tonight will generally range from 1.00 to 2.00 inches with locally greater totals possible. Rainfall totals then diminish across central and northern portions of the forecast area. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible today. The rain will taper to showers later this afternoon into early tonight. Showers, most extensive across northern areas, will develop with the upper low and surface trof Wednesday. Could also have the slight chance/chance of an afternoon thunderstorm.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Continued unsettled weather Wednesday through the end of the week with showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A series of upper level shortwaves are expected to move through the Northeast Wednesday through the end of the week before upper level ridging and high pressure begins to build in. Modest CAPE and mid level lapse rates should support thunderstorm development each afternoon, mainly over northern and central Maine. Wind shear is expected to be on the modest side which should favor weaker pulse and multicell structures although a few stronger storms are possible. Localized flooding is possible if any backbuilding of storms occurs although PWAT values are not expected to be anomalously high which should limit the overall threat. The greatest chance for storms is Friday as global models show a cold front moving through the area. Still some uncertainty on overall track and timing of shortwaves so will have to monitor closely to determine storm threat and coverage.

AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Today: MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, with rain along with isolated thunderstorms. Rain could be heavy at times Downeast. Patchy/areas of fog. Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming variable. Southerly low level wind shear Downeast through early afternoon.

Tonight...Variable conditions with patchy/areas of fog. Showers ending early. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR. North/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Wednesday...Variable conditions with patchy/areas of fog early. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR. Showers developing. Slight chance/chance of afternoon thunderstorms. North/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots.

Wednesday-Saturday: VFR, except for MVFR or lower possible in any showers and possible thunderstorms, mainly at northern terminals and mostly in the afternoon. Winds generally 5 to 10 kts out of the NW Wednesday and S Thursday-Friday, returning to NW Saturday. Light and variable winds each night.

MARINE

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the coastal waters through early afternoon. Winds/seas then below small craft advisory levels later this afternoon into Wednesday. Rain today, tapering to scattered showers early tonight. Areas of fog today into Wednesday morning.

Below SCA winds and seas Wednesday night - Saturday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ050-051.