textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- A Frost Advisory has been issued for interior and coastal Downeast Maine

KEY MESSAGES

1) A frost is expected tonight with the greatest risk over interior Downeast where the growing season has begun and temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid 30s.

2) Unsettled weather pattern Wednesday night through Friday but rainfall amounts will generally be on the lighter side.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A frost is expected tonight with the greatest risk over interior Downeast where the growing season has begun and temperatures are expected to reach the low to mid 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure centered over our area tonight will allow for calm winds and clear skies which will favor temperatures dropping considerably down to about 26-32 degrees across northern and central Maine with temperatures ranging from 33 to 40 degrees over interior and coastal Downeast. Have issued a frost advisory for the coastal and interior Downeast regions as the growing season has started there. The frost could damage sensitive outdoor vegetation if not covered but not expecting a widespread hard freeze. Note that closer to the coast temperatures will be around 40 degrees which may prevent a frost. Some uncertainty still remains as to just how cold the area gets which will depend on how quickly clouds associated with the next system move into the area from the west.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather pattern Wednesday night through Friday but rainfall amounts will generally be on the lighter side.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A vertically stacked low pressure system will move E across the Great Lakes and into New England by Wednesday night. This will swing a warm front into the region which will bring rain. Models are trending towards less rainfall for the warm front. By Thursday, the low is expected to merge with a strong low pressure system off the Mid Atlantic coast. This should reduce the amount of rain as the center of the weaker low moves over the Gulf on Maine. The majority of the rain should be in the south, though rain amounts will be less than an inch through this period. Rain should end by Friday night.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through Wednesday...VFR, MVFR possible at southern terminals late in the afternoon/evening. Winds decrease to light and variable tonight and become S at 5-15 kts Wednesday with the strongest winds at southern terminals.

Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR in -RA with the greatest chance for IFR at northern terminals. S winds 5 to 10 kts.

Thursday and Thursday night: MVFR/IFR likely with -RA. Greatest chance for IFR at southern terminals. S to SE winds 10 to 15 kt becoming E to NE 5 to 10 kts overnight.

Friday and Friday night: MVFR/VFR with numerous rain showers, especially at southern terminals. E to NE wind 5 to 10 kts becoming N overnight.

Saturday: MVFR/VFR with scattered rain showers. W to NW wind 5 to 10 kts.

Sunday...VFR. NW winds 10-15 kts.

MARINE

Below SCA conditions through Wednesday with a 20% chance of SCA winds and seas Wednesday night.

SCA conditions are possible Wednesday night through Thursday night due to gusty winds up to 25 kts. Seas will increase late Thursday through Friday with waves 5-9 ft.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for MEZ015>017- 029-030. MARINE...None.