textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Extended fog coverage tonight, although how dense it becomes is very uncertain.

- Increased POPs and thunderstorm coverage over the Maine/Quebec Borderlands region of the North Woods this afternoon.

- Confidence is still low on precipitation totals and thunderstorm potential Sunday into Monday

KEY MESSAGES

1) Chance of scattered showers and storms today, with the best chance over North Woods and St. John Valley.

2) There is the potential for widespread rainfall from Sunday into Monday. It is not certain how much, if any, relief this could bring to the developing drought at this time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Chance of scattered showers and storms today, with the best chance over North Woods and St. John Valley.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A 500mb shortwave will approach from the NW across Quebec today with a surface cold front ahead of it. As the cold front approaching Maine/Quebec border later today it will begin to wash out across the region. Partly to mostly sunny skies leads to upper 70s across the north and low 80s for the Highlands to the Downeast coast. This should provide some instability but given the late timing of the surface lift not expecting much of the shower activity to make it much more east than the St. John Valley and North Woods. Cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm mainly confined to the North Woods north of Moosehead Region to the Allagash Wilderness Waterway and points west to Quebec border. Not expecting any significant help with the ongoing worsening D0-D1 drought conditions. The front will washout over the CWA tonight and likely be able to produce just a little lift for an isolated shower or thunderstorm on Thursday when a weak vort max pivots over the area. Most locations over the next 48 hours remain dry.

KEY MESSAGE 2...There is the potential for areawide rainfall from Sunday into Monday. It is not certain how much, if any, relief this could bring to the developing drought at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure system approaches from the Great Lakes on Sunday, moving into Quebec by Monday. Additionally, a surface low pressure system slides along the coast on Sunday, bringing some additional moisture along the coast. Global models are not hinting at much instability, with most atmospheric soundings just looking moist. Regardless, not anticipating relief from drought with these showers, as most model guidance is keeping precipitation totals modest. Convection along frontal boundary could result in some higher rain totals, but will need to monitor how regional models pick up on this system to see if environment will be favorable enough to support thunderstorms. As of now, confidence lies in rain falling, but confidence is lower in how much, and the potential for thunderstorms.

AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

This Morning Before 12z...Rapidly varying conditions with BCFG/BR/FG developing. The fog is mainly near the ground so conditions can switch rapidly between VFR and LIFR. Confidence is solid LIFR/IFR vsby is low-moderate through 12z. TEMPO groups added to account for this.

Today...VFR conditions expected. Light winds. Afternoon VCSH at a couple northern most terms, PROB30 for -TSRA at FVE but confidence is low.

Tonight...VFR. BR/FG will likely develop again with light and variable winds. Confidence is low on exact term impacts.

Thursday...VFR. Afternoon VCSH at the Aroostook terms. W winds 5-10kt.

Thursday night-Saturday: VFR. Chance for overnight valley fog Thursday and Friday nights. NW winds Thursday night into Friday, around 5-10 kts. Winds become light Friday night, before becoming S on Saturday.

Saturday night-Sunday: MVFR/IFR in rain showers. Slight chance for thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. SE/E winds 5-10 kts.

MARINE

Winds below SCA conditions through Thursday. Seas 4-5ft this morning will continue to subside this afternoon back to 2-4ft. Fog is possible on the waters this morning and once again tonight reducing vsby. Winds/seas on all waters out to 60nm expected to remain below SCA criteria.

Calm waters Thursday night into Sunday, with seas 2-4 ft. Some overnight fog is possible Thursday night and Friday night. Rain showers begin to move in Saturday night, with showers possible until Monday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.