textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

740 am update...Removed fog from all locations expect for far sern coastal Washington County this morning. Aviation discussion update for 12z.

Increasing confidence in wetting rain at the beginning of the week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A wetting rain likely Tuesday night through Wednesday to help with the recent dry conditions.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A wetting rain likely Tuesday night through Wednesday to help with the recent dry conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A large low pressure system well to the north moves into the area from the west on Tuesday. The associated cold front is expected to pass through the region on Wednesday. Ensemble models are trending towards a more moist system with increasing rainfall amounts. However, the track and timing of the system and cold front is still inconsistent. Nevertheless, guidance shows a 70-80% chance of at least 0.5 inches of rainfall and a 30-50% chance of at least 1 inch of rainfall with the storm which should help provide relief for some of recent dry conditions. In addition, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected with the passage of the cold front on Wednesday afternoon.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Today...IFR/MVFR Aroostook terminals this morning with low cigs hanging on thru early afternoon. VFR Downeast terminals. NW winds 10-15kts, gusting to 25 kts.

Tonight...VFR. WNW winds diminish after sunset all all but FVE where 5-15kts hang on until late.

Monday...VFR. W winds 5-10kts.

Monday night-Tuesday: VFR. S-SE winds G20-30KT possible Tuesday.

Tuesday night-Wednesday: MVFR/IFR in rain showers. TS possible Wed afternoon. SSE winds 5-10 kts.

Wednesday night-Thursday: MVFR in rain showers. Improving to VFR Thursday. WSW winds 5-10 kts.

MARINE

Current observations show wind gusts below SCA levels - but seas on the coastal ocean waters running 4-7 ft. So will cancel the gales on the outer waters and the SCA on the intra-coastal waters, and let the SCA ride as is on the coastal ocean waters. The day shift might need to adjust the end time there, either forward or back - depending on how fast the seas actually fall.

Otherwise, expect winds and seas to continue to diminish, with sustained winds 15 kt or less and seas generally less than 5 ft on all waters by tonight and continuing on Monday.

Winds and seas below SCA criteria Monday night through Tuesday. Winds and seas above SCA criteria Tuesday night through Wednesday night with gales possible on the outer waters. Winds decrease below criteria Thursday but seas remain elevated. Seas peak Wednesday night at 6 to 9 ft on the intracoastal waters, 8 to 10 ft on the coastal waters, and 9 to 11 ft on the outer waters.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ050- 051.