textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

625 am update... Added isolated snow showers in for this morning. Update to the aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm front lifting through Tuesday night will bring light snow north and light rain south.

2) Low pressure tracking north across the area Thursday will bring snow to northwestern areas and rain to eastern areas.

3) Arctic air will filter into the area Thursday night into Friday bringing abruptly colder conditions and possibly icy roads.

4) A new area of low pressure may bring some rain south and snow north late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Forecast model guidance is not in good agreement.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Warm front lifting through Tuesday night will bring light snow north and light rain south.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Warm front will lift through the CWA late tonight, bringing light precipitation to the area. Northern and central areas will start off as snow, likely to remain snow until closer to sunrise. Far north will hold onto light snow before precip ends late in the morning as dry intrusion moves in. Downeast looks to start off as light rain with precip beginning to wind down shortly after sunrise. A quick inch or two is expected over the far north before shutting off. Warm and humid air advecting over a cold snow pack will likely bring for to the entire area on Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Low pressure tracking north across the area Thursday will bring snow to northwestern areas and rain to eastern areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A deep, full latitude trough pushing into the Eastern Great Lakes region will support an area of low pressure tracking north across our region on Thursday. This low will track north along an Arctic front pushing in from the west which will bring some rain to eastern areas as warm air lifts north on the east side of the low, and snow to western and northern areas. This low will continue to our north late Thursday into Thursday night as much colder Arctic air filters in from the northwest. Quickly falling temperatures late Thursday into Thursday night following the rain and snow may result in some icy conditions across the area.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Arctic air will filter into the area Thursday night into Friday bringing abruptly colder conditions and possibly icy roads.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Arctic air pushing into the area behind departing low pressure and ahead of high pressure building into Quebec will bring much colder conditions Thursday night into Friday. Lows Thursday morning will range from near zero north to the mid teens along the coast and highs Friday from the low teens north to near 30 by the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 4... A new area of low pressure may bring some rain south and snow north late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION... A new trough of low pressure digging into the Great Lakes will support an active pattern late this weekend into early next week. However, forecast model guidance is in poor agreement regarding the details of any storm systems that this trough will support and it may take until late week before better agreement can be attained. Forecast guidance agrees that there may be a storm system Sunday, but disagrees on the exact timing and intensity with the GFS carrying a rapidly intensifying storm with rain and snow followed by strong cold winds and the ECMWF lifting out a much weaker system with a chance for some snow early Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

MVFR/IFR this morning over northern Aroostook terminals with low cigs. MVFR conditions move in late in the TAF period as warm front lifts north. Light snow moves into Aroostook terminals between 05-09z, with BGR and BHB likely not seeing rain until late. Possible MVFR/IFR conditions on Wednesday, mainly due to low cigs and patchy fog.

Wednesday night...IFR, possibly lowering to LIFR. Light SE wind.

Thursday...IFR, possibly LIFR at times early, becoming VFR south and MVFR north late. Light S wind becoming SW.

Thursday night...MVFR, possibly becoming VFR south. W wind.

Friday...VFR, lowering to MVFR over the north late. Gusty W to SW wind.

Friday night...MVFR north. VFR becoming MVFR south. SW wind.

Saturday...MVFR, possibly lowering to IFR north. S wind.

MARINE

Winds and seas remain below small craft levels with outer waters expiring at 12z this morning. Expect SW winds to ramp back up toward small craft levels this evening, with marginal gales possible. Waves will top out between 5 to 8 feet Wednesday morning with southerly swell.

Winds will build up to SCA Thursday and possibly a gale Thursday night in gusty W winds. The winds will drop back to SCA Friday and remain SCA into Saturday night. Seas will build up to 5 ft Thursday then 8 ft Thursday night into Friday then dropping back to 5 to 6 ft Friday night into Saturday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ050- 051.