textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Increased confidence in rain for western portions of the area late Friday into Saturday, mainly south/west of Millinocket.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cool temperatures are expected Thursday and will continue into the weekend, with the possibility for a moderate to heavy rain event mainly south/west of Millinocket late Friday into Saturday. Flooding is not anticipated. Mountain snow is possible and would impact people hiking in the mountains.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Cool temperatures are expected Thursday and will continue into the weekend, with the possibility for a moderate to heavy rain event mainly south/west of Millinocket late Friday into Saturday. Flooding is not anticipated. Mountain snow is possible and would impact people hiking in the mountains.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Upper level low pressure will slide across Northern Maine and New Brunswick through Thursday night. Unseasonably cool air is expected across the region on Thursday with persistent cloud cover and northerly flow expected. Afternoon high temperatures on Thursday are expected to be about 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year, especially across the north. Thursday night low temperatures are expected to fall into the mid to upper 30s in a few of the normally colder spots of the far north. There is a low probability of some patchy frost in those areas, but with cloud cover expected and a bit of a northerly breeze the overall threat of frost is low.

Late Friday into Saturday, another anomalously cold and strong upper level low pressure system will dive south out of Quebec. This could bring some moderate to heavy rain to western portions of the area (mainly south/west of Millinocket). However, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty on the track of this system. Most solutions have the heaviest precipitation over western Maine, but with some notable rain getting east into western portions of our forecast area. While the heavier rain could stay west of Greenville/Bangor/Bar Harbor, there are increasing chances that the rain will make it as far east as Greenville/Bangor/Bar Harbor. Going with 60-80 percent rain chances late Friday into Saturday. The most likely amount of rain south/west of Millinocket is a half inch to one inch of rain, though there is a 10-20 percent chance of exceeding 2 inches of rain. There is also a very small chance of getting less than a tenth of an inch if the system tracks further west than expected. Odds favor far NE Maine staying dry with the storm. This system will be anomalously cold for this time of year, and areas that get the heavier precipitation will have snow levels dropping down to 2000-4000 ft above sea level. This means that mountain peaks from Katahdin southwest could see measurable snow Friday night and Saturday morning. The better chance of more significant mountain snow is over the western Maine mountains as compared to the Baxter State Park region, though this will need to be monitored in case the system shifts a bit further east.

Sunday into early next week, we should be looking at a bit of a warming trend, though there is significant uncertainty as to whether we dry out or continue to see intermittent wet weather.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Rest of this afternoon...Predominantly MVFR at KFVE/KCAR/KPQI, mainly VFR at KHUL/KBGR/KBHB. N wind 10 to 15 kt.

Tonight...Mainly MVFR/IFR in low ceilings at the Aroostook County Terminals. Mainly VFR at KBGR/KBHB, but low chance MVFR 09z to 12z. N wind around 10 kt.

Thursday...At the Aroostook terminals MVFR/IFR early, then MVFR/VFR by afternoon. KBGR/KBHB, mainly VFR. N wind 10 to 15 kt.

Thursday night...MVFR/VFR Aroostook terminals, VFR KBGR/KBHB. N wind 5 to 10 kt.

Friday...Mainly VFR Downeast terminals with VFR/MVFR Aroostook terminals with showers possible. NNE winds 5-10kts.

Friday night-Saturday...MVFR, possible IFR, Downeast terminals in rain. MVFR or VFR for Aroostook terminals. NE winds increasing to 10-15 kts gusts to 25 kts Saturday.

Saturday night-Sunday...VFR/MVFR with showers possible. N winds 5-10kts.

MARINE

Winds/seas are expected to to remain below SCA levels through Thursday night.

Northeasterly gales are likely late Friday night into Saturday morning for the western portions of the waters (south of Mt Desert Island), with about a 75 percent chance of gales. Further northeast toward the waters south of Eastport, the chance of gales drops to 25 percent. Seas are likely to build to 4-7 ft during the Friday night/Saturday period. Conditions gradually improve Saturday night and Sunday, with conditions back below small craft levels for winds and seas by late Sunday. Fairly quiet conditions into Monday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.