textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 6:49PM UPDATE...Have added patchy freezing fog across the valley locations of Northern Maine tonight. 00z RAOB from CAR shows a developing steep low level inversion suggesting a potential repeat of early this AM. Temperatures will quickly fall to the dew point bringing RHs close to 100 percent after midnight. High clouds moving in from the west may potentially prevent freezing fog but hi-res guidance continues to suggest the potential. Will call it patchy for now given the uncertainty from the higher level cloud cover.

- 00z TAF Update...See below.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Chance for patchy freezing drizzle Tuesday evening over Downeast into the Central Highlands with minor icing on elevated roadways.

2) Chance of snow Late Friday/Early Saturday, mainly Downeast. Hazardous travel possible if snow occurs.

3) Chance of snow Sunday into Monday, making for hazardous travel if the system occurs.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Chance for patchy freezing drizzle Tuesday evening over Downeast into the Central Highlands with minor icing on elevated roadways.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Warm front will move through the area on Tuesday afternoon. Light snow showers will begin to move in late tonight from the west and move east throughout the day with scattered light snow showers off and on through the afternoon. Total snowfall likely to be less than one inch north of the Katahdin Region. As warm lifts through, the snow growth layer will lose moisture and will likely produce patchy freezing drizzle in the Bangor Region through the Central Highlands and into Downeast late Tuesday evening. This may produce a glaze of ice on untreated roads and elevated roadways Tuesday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Chance of snow Late Friday/Early Saturday, mainly Downeast. Hazardous travel possible if snow occurs.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Chance of snow Late Friday/Early Saturday, mainly Downeast. Hazardous travel possible if snow occurs. Most models/ensembles keep accumulating snow just south of us from a system moving from west to east through the region late Friday/early Saturday. However, a notable minority of solutions do bring impactful snow as far north of Bangor. There is about a 40 percent chance of at least an inch from Bangor south, and a 20 percent chance of at least 4 inches from Bangor south. There is also a 55-60 percent chance of no snow from Bangor south, with everything staying south of our forecast area. Chances are even lower for snow the further north you go from Bangor, but it can't totally be ruled out. GEFS/EPS ensembles have more northerly/snowier solutions than the GEPS. If precipitation does reach as far north as our area, it would likely be in the form of all snow with no rain.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Chance of snow Sunday into Monday, making for hazardous travel if the system occurs.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... The next potential system after late Friday/early Saturday comes Sunday into Monday. There is a lot of forecast uncertainty this far out on whether there will even be a system in the region, but a minority of models/ensembles (about 30 percent) do have a rather strong Nor'easter impacting the state.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

00z TAF UPDATE...

Tonight...Mainly VFR this evening into the evening. Northern Terms turning BKN MVFR after 09z. FEW IFR/LIFR possible with BCFG/FZFG possible between 09-12z Tuesday. Winds light and variable tonight.

Tuesday...Light snow showers will move in Tuesday afternoon with potential for IFR vsbys over Aroostook terminals. IFR/MVFR at all terminals Tuesday night into -shsn and possible frzg drizzle.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR, with possible AM MVFR in the north. NW wind 5-10 kts.

Wednesday Night through Thursday Night...Mainly VFR. NW wind 5-15 kts.

Friday through Saturday...Low confidence. Most likely VFR in the north. Downeast, including BHB/BGR, could be IFR in snow if the system tracks north (about a 30 percent chance of IFR or lower), or could be VFR if the system misses to the south (about 50 percent chance of staying VFR). N wind 5-10 kts.

MARINE

Conditions should remain below small craft levels through the middle of the week. Cannot rule out seas building to near 5ft over the outer waters late Tuesday night in southeasterly swell.

Small craft northerly winds Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Small craft northeast winds then likely Friday night and Saturday. Seas 2-5 ft. Light freezing spray possible from time to time.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.