textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 7:57PM UPDATE...KCBW, KGYX and Canadian Dual Pol data shows an area of precipitation working into eastern Quebec near the Maine border. Doppler radar indicating echos over the North Woods but based on Clayton Lake and other observations near the Maine/Quebec border this precip is likely Virga. Expecting precip to develop quickly as the boundary layer moistens up over the next 1-2hrs. Expecting precipitation to increase coverage and therefore made some minor tweaks to the POPs. All winter weather headlines remain as is, did slightly tweak overall QPF based on latest hi-res guidance. This did slightly adjust ice/sleet totals but overall no wholesale changes. Expecting a slick start to Easter Sunday morning across all areas within the Winter Weather Advisory. Cannot rule out some slick conditions between 5-8AM along The Airline (Route 9) from Wesley to Baileyville. If that does develop will handle with SPS messaging.

- Updated for 00z TAFs, see below...

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mixed precipitation will bring slippery conditions to areas north of Bangor tonight into tomorrow morning. Clean up will once again be difficult.

2) Heavy snow showers possible Monday afternoon in northern Maine.

3) Light snow possible Downeast Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mixed precipitation will bring slippery conditions to areas north of Bangor tonight into tomorrow morning. Clean up will once again be difficult.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure system over the western Great Lakes will move toward the area this evening. Warm advection will bring a wintry mix to the area beginning around midnight tonight. Sounding profiles showing northern areas will start off as snow around midnight, while central areas look to begin as sleet as a warm nose of between +5C to +8C around 800mb. Very deep cold layer likely to result in refreeze of melted snowflakes into ice pellets, similar to what we have seen this winter season.

This cold layer looks to remain in place for approximately 3-5 hours, however forecast soundings have a very hard time with the vertical resolution of the atmosphere. Thus, have mentioned snow over the north, transition to a snow/sleet mix late tonight and twd morning, before becoming a sleet and freezing rain mix around sunrise and then going over to all snow late morning/early afternoon. All told, expecting up to 2 inches of snow and one inch of sleet over nrn Aroostook with up to 0.10 inches of ice.

Similar conditions apply over central sections, though precipitation amounts will be lighter and therefore only expecting up to one-half inch of sleet and up to 0.20 inches of ice.

Clean up will once again be very difficult with freezing rain falling on top of a layer of sleet.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Heavy snow showers possible Monday afternoon in northern Maine.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A shortwave trough behind the departing low could bring chances of heavy snow showers Monday afternoon. Model soundings indicate between 25-50 J/kg of CAPE with northwest winds at 10-20 kt that could pick up moisture from the St. Lawrence river. Snow showers could be heavy at times, but they would be isolated and not widespread. Throughout the day Monday, temps could rise to slightly above freezing with the daytime sun, so snow showers could cause temps to drop. With the potential for slick roads and lowered visibility in these showers, travel could locally be difficult.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Light snow possible Downeast Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... A weak system moving east through the Northeast could graze southern portions of our area with light precipitation on Tuesday. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty. The majority of solutions favor the precipitation staying to our south or being too light to amount to anything, but a significant minority (about 40 percent of solutions) bring measurable precipitation to primarily Downeast. If this happens, it most likely would fall as snow or a rain/snow mix. Can't rule out 1-3 inches of snow Downeast with this storm on the high end, though odds at this point favor little or no snow.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

00z TAF UPDATE...

Tonight..VFR, high end MVFR at FVE. Rapidly becoming MVFR/IFR with mixed precipitation moving in late this evening. BHB likely to remain all rain with BGR -RAPL mix. Northern terminals will initially see snow before mixing with ice pellets, SE 10-20kts, gusting to 30kts. LLWS all terminals late.

Sunday...IFR/LIFR in rain Downeast terminals with IFR/LIFR mixed precipitation north. 5-15kts gusting to 30kts. LLWS all terminals early.

Sunday night...MVFR north, mainly VFR Downeast. SW 5-15kts gusting to 20kts.

Monday: Low VFR ceilings, with a chance of MVFR at northern terminals. Chance of heavy snow showers at northern terminals. WNW winds around 15 kts with gusts to 25 to 30 kts.

Monday night: VFR, with a chance of MVFR at northern terminals in the evening. NW winds 5 to 15 kts.

Tuesday to Tuesday night: Periods of MVFR or IFR possible Downeast terminals with possible -SN, but low confidence. VFR at northern terminals. NW winds around 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts.

Wednesday: VFR strongly favored with a slight chance of MVFR at northern terminals. W winds around 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts, shifting to S.

Wednesday night: VFR with a slight chance of MVFR at northern terminals. S winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts to 20 kts.

Thursday: VFR with a slight chance of MVFR at northern terminals. S winds 10 to 20 kts with gusts to 25 kts.

MARINE

Winds gust to small craft levels over the intracoastal zones this evening and remain throughout the day on Sunday. Winds will be gusting to gale force over the outer waters after midnight tonight through Sunday evening. Small craft conditions continue through the end of the period as seas remain elevated.

Advisory level winds and seas will continue into Monday evening, before conditions improve to sub advisory levels later Monday night through Tuesday. Winds increase again Tuesday night with a frontal passage. At least advisory level winds are likely, with gales also possible (25 percent chance). Next shot at gales is Thursday, with about a 60 percent chance of southerly gales.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to noon EDT Sunday for MEZ001-002. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Sunday for MEZ003>006-010-011-031-032. MARINE...Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ052.