textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Adjusted sky conditions for the rest of today to account for high clouds in southern 2/3rd of CWA and afternoon cu north.

- Adjusted POPs and thunder coverage for Thu-Fri based on latest global and hi-res trends.

- Aviation discussion update for 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Wildfire smoke will remain aloft today into tonight leading to milky skies, in areas not overrun by high clouds.

2) Increasing heat and humidity mid to late week, with a chance of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Wildfire smoke will remain aloft today into tonight leading to milky skies, in areas not overrun by high clouds.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Wildfires across Western Quebec have led to a decent amounts of smoke aloft across much of New England and the Canadian Maritimes. 500mb ridge over the Gaspe Peninsula and weak vertically stacked low drifting south of the CWA this afternoon has led to mostly stagnant flow aloft. The smoke trapped mainly well above 6000ft AGL is drifting and spreading around the region. High clouds across the Downeast into Central Highlands are masking the haze/smoke but overall with elevated smoke we see milky skies today. This is expected to continue into tonight looking at the HRRR/RAP smoke models remaining consistent. Another round of smoke late tonight into tomorrow but confidence is low, but conditions begin to change with increasing moisture.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Increasing heat and humidity mid to late week, with a chance of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Wednesday to Friday will be the warmest days this week. We are not looking at heat to the levels we saw a few days ago, as heat indices are expected to peak roughly 10F below what we saw, and cloud cover should limit direct sun. Wednesday will features highs generally in the low to mid 80s, with perhaps a few upper 80s in the north. The air will be relatively dry with dewpoints in the 50s, so heat indices Wednesday won't be any higher than the temperatures. Heading into Thursday, temperatures look about a bit cooler than Wednesday over the north, but a bit warmer than Wednesday Downeast. Highs over interior Downeast and into the Bangor region should be in the upper 80s Thursday. Dewpoints will also be creeping up into the 60s to near 70F. Heat indices Thursday won't be much different than the temperatures. Then on Friday, cooler, drier air works into the north behind a cold front, while Downeast may be just a touch cooler than Thursday, but there is some uncertainty based on how quickly the cold front can move through.

Wednesday looks dry, but the possibility of storms exists Thursday and Friday. Tentatively, it looks like the greater threat of storms on Thursday is north of Bangor, while on Friday, the threat shifts more toward areas from Central Highlands to Bangor and then to the coast. It's possible the front will move through fast enough to where any storms are south of the area Friday. For Thursday and/or Friday, this doesn't look like a particularly potent setup for severe thunderstorms, but we can't rule out an isolated strong/severe storm, especially if the forcing can align with daytime heating either Thursday or Friday.

The weekend looks dry with 70s to low 80s north and mid 80s south.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Rest of Today...VFR. May see MVFR/IFR cigs move into BHB after 23z. S winds 5kts or less.

Tonight...Mainly VFR for Aroostook terminals, though may see patchy fog. MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys Downeast terminals late, most likely at BHB. Confidence lower at BGR but added TEMPO for FG/BR. Light and variable winds.

Wednesday...IFR/MVFR early at BHB and BGR in low stratus and patchy fog, quickly improving to VFR by mid-morning. VFR elsewhere. SSW winds 5-10kts.

Wednesday Night...Mainly VFR, though patchy valley and coastal fog is possible. SW winds 5 kts or less.

Thursday...VFR. MVFR possible Aroostook terminals in showers and possible -tsra. WSW winds around 10 kts.

Thursday Night-Friday...VFR/MVFR in showers and tstms. W winds 5kts becoming NW 5-15kts Friday morning.

Friday Night and Saturday...VFR. NW wind 5-10 kts.

Sunday...VFR. N-NW winds around 5kt.

MARINE

Patchy fog again later tonight into Wednesday morning. Seas remain under 5ft and wind gusts remain below 25kts all waters through Wednesday. Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, there is about a 50 percent chances of SW winds reaching 25 kts or seas reaching 5 ft mainly from 25-60 NM ahead of a cold front. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm over the waters Thursday night into Friday. Winds/seas below SCA conditions this weekend with just some passing clouds.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.