textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Increased wind gusts a few extra miles per hour on Thursday after winds shift westerly.

- Increased total QPF tonight for portions of the Downeast coast with increasing NBM probabilities.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Soaking rain is expected areawide tonight into Thursday AM to help with ongoing drought conditions.

2) Strong gusty winds expected with the rain late tonight and again during the day Thursday and Friday. Cannot rule out isolated power outages.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Soaking rain is expected areawide tonight into Thursday AM to help with ongoing drought conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A broad low pressure system in northern Canada will bring a strong warm front through Maine tonight, with the associated occluded front quickly exiting the region early Thursday AM. Anticipating rainfall to move in from the west tonight, becoming areawide and moderate after midnight. Cannot fully rule out am embedded isolated thunderstorm, but not anticipating severe weather given very marginal instability.

As of this update, rainfall totals should reach between 0.5 to 0.75 inches throughout the region. Hi-res CAMs have allowed for probabilities to increase for 1 inch of rain along the Downeast coast extending inland to The Airline. The trend continues for the least amount of rain to fall in the Quebec/Maine borderlands and St. John Valley where only 0.25 to 0.5 inch expected. Localized higher totals are possible with heavier convection that develops overnight. Flooding is not a concern with this system, but rain amounts should give some relief to the ongoing D1-D2 drought conditions. As the system exits on Thursday, some wrap around moisture from the system could bring some isolated showers through the north.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Strong gusty winds expected with the rain late tonight and again during the day Thursday and Friday. Cannot rule out isolated power outages.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... As mentioned above, strong low pressure system passes to the north of the forecast area, with strong winds aloft. This will bring strong gusts late tonight in the Downeast region, and again during the day Thursday from the west, and again from the west during the day Friday. The winds aloft will be the strongest tonight, with up to about 50-60 kt at 850mb, but there will be lower surface gusts due to stable surface layer. More realistically, we are looking at gusts as high as about 30 mph from the south tonight, with gusts potentially up to 35 mph. Low level jet develops late tonight, bringing strong gusts over the waters. Gusts around 35 mph from the west appear likely Thursday, and with wet soils after tonights rain, plus leaves on the trees, there could be very isolated tree damage/power outages. Wind gusts gradually relax Thursday evening, but pick back up on Friday with gusts up to 35 mph again possible, mainly over the north.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Rest of Today...VFR north. VFR becoming MVFR by sunset south terms. S-SE winds 5-15kt gusts up to 20kt.

Tonight...MVFR/IFR, with localized LIFR, in rain. S/SW winds 10-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. LLWS expected at all terminals.

Thursday...Mainly VFR, with a chance of MVFR north in rain showers. Windy with W winds 15-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts.

Thursday Night and Friday...VFR with W winds 10-20 kts, gusting 25-30 kts during the day Friday. Can't rule out intermittent MVFR from HUL north, but VFR is the most likely conditions.

Friday Night and Saturday...VFR with light winds.

Saturday Night and Sunday...VFR with S winds 5-15 kts during the day Sunday. Possible MVFR late Sunday.

Monday...MVFR early becoming VFR. NW winds 5-15kt gusts up to 25kt possible.

MARINE

Winds increase this evening across all waters, reaching SCA gusts for intercoastal and coastal waters. Gale Warning now in effect for outer waters 25-60nm, as winds increase to Gale force after midnight. SW winds 20-30kt with gusts up to 35kt. Small Craft Advisory for the Intra-Coastal Waters and Coastal Waters out to 25nm from 8PM this evening till 8PM Thursday. SW winds 15-25kt with gusts up to 30kt. Seas peak in the range of 6-10 ft late tonight into Thursday morning, and then gradually subside with highest seas over the waters 25-60nm offshore. Winds SE early this evening, becoming SW tonight into Thursday. Rain and chance for thunderstorms tonight into Thursday AM. Winds gradually shift to the NW for Friday and become variable and light Saturday. Winds become S on Sunday and could increase to around 20 kts.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ050>052. Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 11 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ080-081.