textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation Section for 00Z TAFs

KEY MESSAGES

1) Fair weather this weekend will give way to more unsettled weather into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Fair weather this weekend will give way to more unsettled weather into early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure builds in through the weekend, with drier weather and cooler temperatures returning to the forecast area. High temperatures each day may only lift into the 70s, and skies could remain mostly sunny on Saturday. By Sunday, cloud cover may begin to increase once more ahead of the next approaching low pressure system, though there is the possibility this system could slow upon approach, delaying the onset of mostly cloudy skies to early next week.

The next low pressure system to cross the area early next week will be in the form of a cold front which brings another round of rain and chance for thunderstorms. Current trends suggest showers will remain scattered along the boundary as they move through as there will be a lack of deep moisture support, but if the trough deepens more and reaches further into the Gulf, there could be more numerous showers and storms due to the synoptic forcing of the cold front. The latest ECMWF and CMC guidance suggest the potential for a triple point low along the coast as this system enters our area, which could better enhance forcing along the coast and support higher rainfall totals through the Downeast region. Meanwhile, the GFS keeps the feature as an ordinary cold front pushing through the forecast area. The GFS-AI model does parallel the coastal low thinking, along with other AI guidance and the end of the RRFS run, so the potential exists for better wetting rains near the coast, much as the NBM has with at least a quarter of an inch of widespread rainfall Downeast.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

High confidence in VFR through the TAF period at KFVE/KCAR/KBGR/KBHB. At KPQI and KHUL there is the possibility for a period of MVFR or lower in valley fog late this evening/overnight, otherwise it will be VFR at those terminals as well.

Winds become light and variable this evening at all but KFVE, where winds should be NW at less than 10KT. Winds become NW-WNW at less than 10kt at all terminals by mid Saturday morning. KFVE should see winds G15KT from around midday through late afternoon, then should see gusts abate early Saturday evening. KBHB could see the winds become W to maybe even WSW Saturday afternoon.

Saturday night-Sunday: VFR, with possible exception of MVFR or lower in patchy river valley fog late Saturday night/early Sunday morning.

Sunday night-Monday night: VFR, except MVFR/IFR possible in stronger showers and/or thunderstorms. S winds G15-20KT possible. LLWS possible.

Tuesday-Tuesday night: VFR.

Wednesday: VFR early, with increasing chance for MVFR/IFR from KHUL northwards into the afternoon as showers and thunderstorms move into the area. SW winds G15-20KT possible.

MARINE

Winds 15 KT or less and seas 3 ft or less on all waters through Sunday. Gusts of 25-30kt are possible over the coastal ocean and outer waters Sunday night and Monday, and possibly into Monday night on the outer waters, with sub-SCA conditions on the intra- coastal waters during this time frame. Winds should be 15 kt or less and seas 4 ft or less (5 ft or less from 25-60 nm) over the waters from Tuesday through Wednesday night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...None.