textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

-Increased pops to high likely Saturday morning with system ahead of strong cold front.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Minor accumulations for Downeast Wednesday afternoon.

2) Low pressure along a strong cold front has the potential to bring snow and falling temperatures Friday night into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Minor accumulations for Downeast Wednesday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... By Wednesday morning compact vort max will be approaching western Maine with weak coastal low developing over the Downeast coast. At this time guidance is trending south with the most impactful snow and keeping heavier snowfall rates over the waters, however potential still exists along the coast and over the outer islands for a brief burst of heavy snow on Wednesday afternoon. Bufkit soundings, along with CAMS indicate that the best chance for locally heavy snow looks to be over Washington County between 15-20z.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Low pressure along a strong cold front has the potential to bring snow and falling temperatures Friday night into Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A wave of low pressure forming ahead of a powerful cold front will move into our area Friday night and cross the region on Saturday. Snow will be supported by frontal convergence and upper level lift ahead of the front, and then may continue to be supported by an inverted trough extending northwest from the low as it exits into the Maritimes Saturday afternoon possibly enhancing snow Downeast. This looks like a fast moving low which may bring several inches of snow.

The greatest hazard from this system may be the abruptly falling temperatures and strong gusty winds just behind the low as the Arctic cold front pushes through. Northwest winds quickly picking up behind the low may produce blowing snow resulting in abruptly lowering visibility. Quickly falling temperatures following the frontal passage may cause any wet surfaces to quickly ice up and become hazardous. Details of this storm, including how much snow it will produce, remain uncertain, but given the strength of the cold front, it has the potential to be impactful.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Today through Tonight...VFR for all terminals. Light NW winds today becoming light and variable this evening.

Wednesday...VFR early, becoming MVFR in snow showers over all terminals, with best chance at BHB with possible IFR vsbys late morning into early afternoon. Light winds becoming NW 5-10kts in the afternoon.

Wednesday night...MVFR north and VFR south. W wind around 5 kt.

Thursday...MVFR to occasionally IFR north. VFR to occasionally MVFR south. NW wind around 5 kt.

Thursday night...MVFR becoming VFR north. VFR south. W wind around 3 kt.

Friday...VFR, becoming MVFR late. SW to S wind around 5 kt.

Friday night...MVFR dropping to IFR early and possibly LIFR in snow late. SE wind around 5 kt becoming N late.

Saturday...IFR across the north. IFR improving to MVFR south. NW winds increasing to 10 to 15 kt with higher gusts. Chance of blowing snow and icy tarmacs.

MARINE

Seas will remain above small craft levels over the outer waters early this morning before dropping to 1-3 feet this afternoon, continuing through Wednesday afternoon. Expect seas to begin to rise late Wednesday. Winds will remain below SCA levels through Wednesday. Light freezing spray expected early this morning.

A SCA may be needed over the offshore waters Wednesday night. Winds will increase to gale Saturday with a strong gale and significant freezing spray possible from late Saturday through Saturday night following a strong cold front.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ050- 051. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST early this morning for ANZ052.