textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Intermittent light rain showers, possibly mixed with snow, will impact areas north of Bangor through Wednesday.

2) Potential for coastal storm development in the later part of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Intermittent light rain showers, possibly mixed with snow, will impact areas north of Bangor through Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Skies are mostly cloudy this afternoon with temperatures ranging from around 40 north to around 50 Downeast. The surface low pressure is well off to our northeast, but another spoke of energy is rotating south around the west side of the low pressure, and bringing a little light rain mainly to north/east Aroostook. Expect rain totals to range from a trace to 0.05 through the rest of the afternoon, with precipitation tapering off by about 6pm. A few snowflakes could mix in at times, but generally we are just looking at a cold but light rain.

A new but weak low pressure system moves in from the west Tuesday, bringing some light rain/snow. Main period of precipitation is from roughly mid-afternoon to early evening, and favors the central parts of the region for places like the Moosehead Lake area over toward Millinocket, though light precipitation is possible anywhere. Totals should generally be less than 0.25 inch, and some areas may get nothing. Precipitation type is a challenge, with many areas of the north being borderline rain vs rain/snow. That said, think that the precipitation rates will be so light than any snow accumulation through Tuesday evening will be limited to higher terrain and not impact road travel. As we head later into Tuesday night, the atmosphere from about Millinocket north will be cold enough to support just snow, but there will only be a few light showers leftover in NW flow by later Tuesday night.

Any showers will be restricted to the northern areas by Wednesday morning with rain being the primary precipitation type with snow more likely in the northern most areas throughout the day. Showers will have dissipated by Wednesday evening, minimum snow accumulations expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Potential for coastal storm development in the later part of next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Large amounts of uncertainty remain with the low pressure system developing in the Mid-Atlantic and moving up the coast this weekend. Confidence has increased in a low pressure system developing over the Ohio Valley, then intensifying as it moves E towards the Mid-Atlantic. Confidence has also increased in cooler temperatures with the system from Friday throughout the weekend. Highest uncertainty remains in the track of the low and the impacts that go with it. Any small variation in the track could greatly change the impacts of the system.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Rest of Today: MVFR/low VFR at Aroostook terminals, with mainly VFR BGR/BHB but with a small chance of MVFR cigs. W/NW wind 5-15 kts.

Tonight... MVFR/low VFR at Aroostook terminals, with the greater likelihood of MVFR the further north you go. For BGR/BHB, most likely VFR. W wind 5-10 kts.

Tuesday... Mainly VFR through about 18z, with a chance of MVFR at times at Aroostook terminals. After 18z, probably staying MVFR BGR/BHB, but MVFR cigs becoming likely N of BGR, with light rain or snow possible. W wind 5-10 kts.

Tuesday Night...MVFR/IFR N of BGR, with MVFR or VFR BGR/BHB. Chance of rain/snow showers Aroostook terminals. Light winds.

Wednesday...VFR South, MVFR north in rain/snow. WNW winds 5-10 kts. Gusts up to 20 kts. Showers lingering at the northern terminals.

Wednesday night-Thursday...VFR. Light and variable WNW winds.

Thursday night...VFR north, MVFR south in rain/snow. Uncertainty is high in the timing of the precip. Light and variable winds.

Friday...MVFR/IFR in rain for the south and snow for the north. Uncertainty is high on the precip timing. N winds 5-10 kts.

Friday night...MVFR/IFR rain for south and snow for the north. NE winds 5-10kts up north gusts up to 15kts. NE wind 10-15kts, gusts up to 25 kts in the south.

Saturday...MVFR/IFR Showers changing over to rain/snow in the north Saturday then changing to rain by the afternoon, staying rain in the south. NE 10-15kts with gusts up to 25kts.

MARINE

A few NW gusts to 25 kts tonight over the coastal waters, but not enough confidence to issue small craft. Winds decrease to 10-15 kts during the day Tuesday. Tuesday night, W-SW winds are expected to increase across the coastal and outer waters reaching up to 30 kts. Winds should decrease again by Wednesday and remain below SCA levels. With waves decreasing up to Friday morning. By Friday morning, both winds and seas will increase with the approaching coastal system.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.