textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Low clouds continue to linger through most of the state, so updated forecast to reflect that. Clouds have kept overnight temperatures steady in the north, so bumped up overnight lows. Anticipating clouds to scatter out by morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry through Monday with worsening drought conditions.

2) Rain chances return Monday night and remain through the rest of the week, but very low confidence on whether or not there will be notable drought relief.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry through Monday with worsening drought conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Dry conditions continue, with no precipitation forecast today and Monday. High pressure remains centered to our south, bringing breezy daytime winds across the region on both days. The high pressure will continue to pipe warm air into the region from the southwest. This results in a warming trend today and Monday, with highs in the 50s today, and upper 50s in the north, and low-to-mid 60s Downeast on Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances return Monday night and remain through the rest of the week, but very low confidence on whether or not there will be notable drought relief.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure over the Great Lakes moves east, bringing a frontal system that stalls over the northeast Monday into Monday night. Small shortwave on Monday results a chance for light showers in the north beginning Monday night, continuing into Tuesday. Very minimal accumulation with these showers. Tuesday into Tuesday night, backdoor cold front pushes through the north, providing another chance for rain. Anticipating roughly 0.30 inches or less to fall in the north, tapering down to lower accumulations as you move from northern Aroostook county.

Wednesday onwards, confidence in the forecast becomes low. Models are struggling with the placement of a low pressure system in the plains, and whether or not rain will make it into Maine. Some ensembles/models have decent rain, while others have none. Heading toward the weekend, there is a some better confidence in a low pressure system moving into the region from the southeast bringing some moisure, but too early to determine exact timing and location.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Today-Monday...VFR. some low clouds in the morning over terminals, around 3500ft or so. Anticipating clouds to scatter out by daybreak. W winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts. LLWS likely across the area Sunday night.

Monday night-Tuesday...Chance of MVFR in any rain at northern terminals, otherwise VFR. Calm winds overnight, becoming light E/SE winds on Tuesday.

Tuesday night-Wednesday...MVFR expected in rain showers. Rain begins to move out by Wednesday afternoon/evening. SSE winds 5-10 kts, becoming S 5-10kts, gusting to 20kts, on Wednesday.

Wednesday night-Thursday...Chance for VFR conditions overnight, becoming MVFR on Thursday in rain. S winds 5-10 kts Wednesday night, gusting to 20 kts possible on Thursday.

MARINE

Over the intracoastal waters, winds below 20 kts and seas around 2 ft or less today into mid-week. For the coastal waters, SCA this evening into tonight for some gusts around 25kts. Seas 4 ft or less are forecast today- Wednesday. For the outer waters sustained winds of 20 kt or less with gusts around 25 kt, and seas of 5 ft or less are forecast during the same time frame.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ050-051.