textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation Section for 12z TAFs.

Removed reference to frost for this morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Areas of frost possible tonight. Precautions should be taken to protect sensitive vegetation.

2) Afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible today for western portions of the area such as the Moosehead Lake area.

3) Much warmer Wednesday through Friday, with two dry days in a row areawide Wednesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Areas of frost are possible tonight. Precautions should be taken to protect sensitive vegetation.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Frost is possible tonight, but it will be a bit tougher because of there being more clouds in general than last night. Models in general have a NW/SE oriented area of mostly clear skies that pivots SW slowly through the night as low pressure moves offshore, but there is some uncertainty on where this clearer corridor sets up. The main frost risk is in this mostly clear corridor, and went a bit cooler than NBM in this region which has the best shot at setting up from roughly Clayton Lake SE to Danforth. However, due to confidence in widespread frost in any given area below the required 80 percent to issue any headlines, have held off on issuing anything for tonight for now. After tonight, don't anticipate any more frost except for perhaps a few of the very coolest spots.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible today for western portions of the area such as the Moosehead Lake area.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Another upper level low pressure system dives south out of Quebec today. This system is not as potent or as cold as the one that brought significant rain and mountain snow to far Western Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont. However, it's taking a track a bit more east that will allow at least far western portions of our area to experience some showers. Can't rule out a few storms as well, and some could have small hail due to cold air aloft. That said, don't see any way any of the storms could reach severe levels. The risk is really only over far western portions of our forecast area, from the western North Woods to Moosehead Lake region to far S/SW Penobscot County perhaps as far east as Bangor. Areas further east will have much less instability and should be dry, with high confidence in no showers for places like Caribou, Houlton, Danforth, and Eastport. The showers over western portions of the area will be slow-moving and could drop some locally fairly heavy rain totals, perhaps up to around an inch. In general, though, totals should average around one quarter inch.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Much warmer Wednesday through Friday, with two dry days in a row areawide Wednesday and Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Wednesday will be the first day with really noticeably warmer temperatures, as highs should be in the mid 70s. Then Thursday and Friday look warmer still. Models have overall been trending a bit warmer for Thursday/Friday, with highs likely 75-85. Not expecting it to feel muggy though. A cold front could move into Northern Maine on Friday which may begin a cooldown and increase shower/storm chances in the north, but confidence is low on the timing of the cold front. High confidence in dry conditions areawide Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

High confidence in VFR through the TAF period, with the possible exception of a very low chance of a brief period of MVFR in any showers this afternoon/early this evening at KBGR. Light and variable winds become E-NE at 6-10KT by mid-late morning at northern terminals. Southern terminals should see a sea breeze kick in with winds around 10 KT late this morning/early this afternoon. Winds become light and variable throughout again early this evening.

Monday-Tuesday...VFR, with a very low chance of a brief period of MVFR in any afternoon showers.

Wednesday-Thursday...VFR.

MARINE

Below small craft conditions through Wednesday with little if any marine fog. Thursday, a 30-40 percent chance of small craft SW winds on the coastal ocean waters, with the intra-coastal waters remaining below SCA levels. The outer waters should see winds 20 kt or less and seas 4 ft or less today through Thursday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.