textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Continued confidence in rainfall amounts of up to 1.5" today through tonight with the highest totals across northern Maine.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A widespread rainfall is expected today through Wednesday night, which will continue to improve the long term drought. The ponding of water in known poor drainage areas is possible.

2) Another widespread beneficial rainfall is possible late Sunday into Monday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A widespread rainfall is expected today through Wednesday night, which will continue to improve the long term drought. The ponding of water in known poor drainage areas is possible.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A cold front will pass through the area today and tonight with a wave of upper level energy contributing to the development of a deepening area of low pressure along the boundary. Precipitation developing in response to forcing along the cold front will result in a soaking rainfall with totals up to 1.5" across northern and central Maine and around 0.5" over Downeast Maine and the Bangor region. Short range models show the heaviest rainfall developing in the afternoon and evening as the wave of low pressure riding the boundary moves into the area. Also cannot rule out some embedded convection which could produce a rumble of thunder or two, especially over southern areas. Overall, the ample rainfall expected should continue to improve drought conditions including soil moisture and groundwater deficits.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another widespread beneficial rainfall is possible late Sunday into Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... H5 trof will deepen over the Great Lakes during the latter half of the weekend. This will allow significant moisture transport from the Gulf with PW values possibly up toward the 90th percentile for this time of year. Depending on where the sfc low tracks will determine what area receives the highest rainfall totals. At this time it appears the southern half of the area will see the highest amounts, though some guidance continues to keep the heaviest qpf offshore, mainly in the EC solutions. This will continue to help alleviate the long term drought.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Wednesday...For northern terminals, MVFR in rain early becoming IFR and possibly LIFR in the evening with the heavier rain. For southern terminals, VFR early then becoming MVFR in light rain during the afternoon and evening. SW winds becoming north around 5 kts in the afternoon at northern terminals. S winds 10 to 15 kts at southern terminals with gusts 20-25 kts. LLWS southern terminals and HUL.

Wednesday night...IFR early at northern terminals in light rain becoming MVFR overnight. IFR/LIFR southern terminals but could see and improvement to MVFR/IFR late. LLWS southern terminals and HUL early, diminishing after midnight. NW winds 5 to 10 kts northern terminals, S winds becoming NW 5 to 10 kts southern terminals.

Thursday...VFR southern terminals with VFR/MVFR in scattered rain showers northern terminals. NW winds 5 to 10 kts.

Thursday night-Friday...Mainly VFR, though brief MVFR possible in cigs and showers. Light W through Fri morning, then W 5-10kts in the afternoon.

Friday night...VFR. WSW 5kts.

Saturday-Saturday night...MVFR with rain moving in Saturday evening. SSW 5-10kts, gusts 20kts.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with possible IFR in rain. S 5-15kts.

MARINE

SCA conditions continue on the coastal and intracoastal waters through early Thursday. Wind gusts diminish below criteria Wednesday night but seas remain elevated until Thursday morning. Seas should overall be on a downward trend through Thursday.

Below SCA conditions expected through Saturday. May see a very small chance for SCA level winds Friday evening. Seas increase above 5ft Saturday evening, remain elevated into Sunday morning before diminishing. May see a return to SCA Sunday night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ052. Gale Warning until 3 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ080-081.