textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Updated aviation discussion for near term - Canceled small craft advisory for intra-coastal waters - Added gusty wind wording to the possible thunderstorms this afternoon - Increased shower chances for Monday afternoon into the evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers today, most numerous this afternoon, with possible thunderstorms. Any storms could produce gusty winds.

2) Scattered showers Monday afternoon, mainly over Northern Maine.

3) Dry conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday, giving the region a break from frequent rainfall. Potential for frost over the interior Downeast Tuesday night, which could impact sensitive crops.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers today, most numerous this afternoon, with possible thunderstorms. Any storms could produce gusty winds.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Low clouds and marine air has overtaken the entire area early this morning, with a south breeze off the Gulf of Maine ahead of an approaching cold front. There is some fog mainly near the coast, but so far the fog appears to have been fairly limited. There is some light shower activity.

This morning, although we are expecting a lot of clouds, shower activity will be fairly limited. Rain totals this morning from showers generally less than 0.25 inch, except some locally higher totals for Washington County where there is a steadier stream of showers.

The cold front moves in from the west this afternoon, and with it, we are looking for a line of showers and thunderstorms to develop. Not a lot of surface heating, but there appears to be just a little clearing right ahead of the front which will allow for just enough instability for storms to form. Areas from Bangor north have the risk of thunderstorm, though the best risk of thunder appears to be around the central highlands and north into the North Woods early in the afternoon. Any storms could have gusty winds, but don't expect anything severe. The storms move east toward the New Brunswick border late in the afternoon and begin to weaken as they run into the more firmly entrenched marine layer south/east of I-95. The main showers/storms this afternoon with the cold front will be fairly short-lived, not lasting longer than about two hours at any location. Generally around 0.25 inch of rain with the PM showers/storms, with locally higher amounts. No flooding expected. Drier air moves in from the west this evening, with rain ending.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered showers Monday afternoon, mainly over Northern Maine.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Upper trough approaching Monday, with cold air aloft leading to fairly steep lapse rates and enough instability for some afternoon showers. The showers will be possible anywhere, but the best coverage should be in the north. Like recent days, the atmosphere aloft will be cold enough to where any showers could produce small pea-sized hail. Can't rule out a little lightning as well and will need to monitor for this potential. Monday afternoon will not be a wash-out by any measure, with just intermittent brief showers with precipitation totals mainly less than 0.25 inch.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Dry conditions are expected Tuesday and Wednesday, giving the region a break from frequent rainfall. Potential for frost over the interior Downeast Tuesday night, which could impact sensitive crops.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Slight ridging pattern builds in at the surface, with a mid- level shortwave moving through on Tuesday. Ridging helps to clear out skies, with a potential for some breezy and dry conditions during the day. This will be a break from repeated rainfall the past week throughout the region, especially with growing season upon us. Skies become partially cloudy by Tuesday afternoon. Dry conditions persist through Wednesday, as high pressure moves east over the region. Daytime highs in the low-to-mid 50s in the north, and mid-to-upper 50s Downeast on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight lows Tuesday in the 30s. Partially cloudy skies with cool overhead air mass results in a chilly Tuesday night, with low temperatures reaching just above freezing, causing a potential for some frost development. Frost can impact any crops recently planted, so plan accordingly to protect agriculture.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Today...IFR and low MVFR early this morning, with some LLWS. Only slight improvement in ceilings through the day, with generally MVFR in the afternoon. A round of showers with potential thunderstorms in the afternoon is likely, with the best threat at GNR/MLT/PQI/CAR/FVE. Added Prob30 to FVE/CAR/PQI, where confidence at these TAF sites of storms is the highest. Could be locally gusty winds with the showers too. Outside of the storms, winds today S 10-15 kts.

Tonight...Improvement to VFR from west to east in the evening. An exception is BHB and points east, where IFR could remain through at least 6z. Tentatively anticipate BGR will clear to VFR after about 22z (TAF has this), but there is a chance lower cigs could stick around a bit longer than TAF indicates. Light winds.

Monday...Mainly VFR, with a chance of MVFR with any of the scattered showers that develop midday/afternoon. W wind 5-10 kts.

Tuesday - Tuesday night...VFR, slight chance of MVFR ceilings during the afternoon at northern terms. NW winds 5-15kt, with gusts to 20kt possible during the afternoon. Winds shift W and relax overnight.

Wednesday - Wednesday night...VFR during the day. MVFR overnight as showers begin to move in, south to north. W/SW winds 5-15kt. Shift S/SE overnight.

Thursday...MVFR with rain showers. S winds at 5-10 kts. Wind gusts 15-20 kts possible during the afternoon.

MARINE

Removed small craft for intra-coastal waters, as seas are underperforming. Winds still expected to reach minimal small craft levels this morning for eastern portions of the waters, and seas should still reach 5 feet today as well, so let the small craft ride for these areas. Winds below small craft tonight and Monday, with seas 3-5 ft.

Winds generally stay below Small Craft criteria early this week. Outer waters seas fall below 5ft by late Monday night. Rain expected on Wednesday night into Thursday evening then more showers on Friday. Low end potential for SCA wind gusts Thursday across the Coastal Waters out 25nm, the outer waters 25 to 60nm will likely see gusts >25kt but SCAs for wind/waves are not issued there by policy.

Sea surface water temperatures are ranging from 40-44F from the Downeast coast out 60nm and east to the Hague Line, including Penobscot and Passamaquoddy Bays.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ051.