textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- No major changes to the forecast for this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cold temperatures and light snow late today and tonight.

2) Low RHs expected Wednesday and Thursday which may lead to increased fire weather concerns in areas where no snowpack exists.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold temperatures and light snow late today and tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A mid level trof will move across the waters tonight. High res models indicate an area of moisture in the north end of the low moving into the region by this afternoon. The majority of the snow will be south of the Central Highlands with accumulations being light. The snow is expected to last into tonight with light snow showers across the south. Once the system exits to the east, a strong surface high pressure will move in. This will clear out skies and bring in a cold airmass. With the light winds, cold airmass, and clear skies, ample diurnal cooling will occur. This will drop temps well below seasonal norms, with single digits in the north and teens in the south.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low RHs expected Wednesday and Thursday which may lead to increased fire weather concerns in areas where no snowpack exists.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Dry snowfree grounds Downeast to Bangor Region, low RHs, light winds, and mostly sunny skies may lead to some increased fire weather concerns Wednesday.

High pressure slides to the south of Maine Wednesday resulting in W-SW flow across the area under a strong subsidence inversion with ample dry air aloft. Deep mixing up to 800mb combined with mostly sunny skies, especially further south, should contribute to very low RHs, likely below 23-28%. Elsewhere generally 35-40% across the North from Moosehead Region to Baxter Region northward to the St. John Valley. Winds will not be that strong generally 5-10mph with occasionally gusting 15 to 20 mph especially across the terrain.

Afternoon relative humidity values Thursday will generally range from 30 to 40 percent across inland areas away from the Downeast coast. Higher humidity values will occur along the Downeast coast with onshore winds. Southerly winds will gust to 20 to 25 mph across the region. These conditions could help maintain fire weather concerns Thursday.

AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Today-Tonight...VFR north, VFR/MVFR south due to snow this afternoon. Light and variable winds.

Wednesday...VFR. W winds 5-10 kts.

Wednesday night through Thursday...VFR. South/southwest winds 5 to 10 knots Wednesday night. South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots Thursday.

Thursday night...VFR/MVFR, local IFR. South winds 10 to 15 knots.

Friday...VFR/MVFR, local IFR early. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR north with a chance of showers. VFR Downeast. South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming variable 5 to 10 knots.

Friday night...MVFR/IFR. A chance of rain. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north/northwest.

Saturday...MVFR/IFR with a chance of rain early, then VFR/MVFR. North/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

MARINE

Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels today and early tonight. Winds will increase around midnight to SCA levels, thus a small craft advisory has been issued. Winds will decrease by Wednesday morning.

Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Wednesday night through Thursday night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051.