textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Removed isolated storms this afternoon in the St John Valley. - Lowered temperatures Friday and Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Very warm and increasingly humid conditions through Thursday, with the highest temperatures focused inland.

2) Shower chances return this evening and persist into the weekend. Fog is likely near the coast tonight and Thursday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Very warm and increasingly humid conditions through Thursday, with the highest temperatures focused inland.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A very warm airmass persists over the area today, with temperatures this afternoon topping out in the 80s. Not much change tomorrow (Thursday) over the north with mid to upper 80s persisting, but 5-10F cooler over southern portions of the area thanks to more clouds and flow off the cool waters. Dewpoints are steadily increasing and it is starting to feel a touch muggy today with dewpoints in the 50s, and tomorrow and Friday will be a bit muggier still with dewpoints 60-65F. Heat risk is generally in the moderate category today, then falls to minor tomorrow Downeast but remains moderate in the north. For moderate heat risk, it affects those who are sensitive to heat, especially those without cooling/hydration. The fairly warm nights the next few nights will make it harder to cool homes for those without and sort of air conditioning. Friday, with more clouds and moisture, temperatures trend downward a bit areawide though it will stay fairly muggy.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Shower chances return this evening and persist into the weekend. Fog is likely near the coast tonight and Thursday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION.. Moisture gradually returns to the area, with a chance of showers tonight mainly south/west of Millinocket. Nothing too significant. From Thursday into Thursday night, the main chance of showers will be north of Bangor, with a chance of a few non- severe storms over the North Woods. The air from Thursday into Thursday night will generally be too stable for convective showers toward the coast.

Toward the coast, fog becomes likely later tonight and again Thursday night. We can't rule out some denser fog, but confidence is low.

Weak ridging takes over on Friday with some increasing instability in the afternoon. Expect some afternoon showers with possible thunderstorms in mainly western areas. By Friday night, the cold front boundary will move from W to E. There is low confidence in thunderstorm development during the night due to frontal lifting, some elevated CAPE, and steep low level lapse rate. The loss of diurnal heating might decrease the chances of thunderstorms, but cannot rule it out. Saturday could see a higher possibility for afternoon thunderstorms, mainly in northern areas. Another cold front approaches on Sunday, with a better chance of thunderstorms for the area.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Rest of Today...VFR with light winds. BHB and BGR will have S-SSW wind around 10 kts this afternoon as a seabreeze.

Tonight...VFR with BKN cigs at FVE, CAR, PQI and HUL. MVFR becoming IFR for BGR and BHB late in the night. LIFR vsby is possible.

Thursday...Any IFR/LIFR recovering to MVFR/VFR by afternoon for BHB/BGR with VFR at FVE, CAR, PQI and HUL. Light and variable winds expected.

Thursday Night...VFR early, likely becoming MVFR or IFR late for FVE/CAR/PQI/HUL, and becoming IFR/LIFR for BGR/BHB. Light winds.

Friday...Mainly VFR, except for a brief period of MVFR is possible with any showers at FVE/CAR/PQI. SSE winds 5-10 kts.

Friday Night-Saturday...MVFR/IFR in rain showers. Slight chance for thunder at northern terminals. SE-S winds 5-10 kts shifting SW-W during the day.

Saturday Night...VFR. SW-W winds 5-15 kts.

Sunday-Sunday Night...MVFR/IFR in rain showers. Slight chance for thunder at all terminals. S winds 5-10 kt shifting to W wind over night.

Monday...MVFR/IFR becoming VFR as showers move out. W winds 5-10 kt

MARINE

Fog likely on the waters starting tonight and continuing into the morning on Thursday. Winds generally 10 kts or less with seas 4 ft less through Thursday night.

Another round of fog possible Thursday night/early Friday morning, and again Friday night. There is the potential for some showers over the waters tonight into Thursday then another round Friday night into Saturday night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.