textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A strong system Friday through Saturday is expected to bring widespread rain with some snow over the North Friday/Friday night and strong winds Friday night into Saturday.

2) Conditions trending drier today and tonight, with dry conditions areawide Thursday and Thursday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong system Friday through Saturday is expected to bring widespread rain with some snow over the North Friday/Friday night and strong winds Friday night into Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A strong low pressure system is expected to develop over the Great Lakes, then move east towards the state this weekend. This system is expected to bring widespread precip to the region Friday. As of this update, ensemble solutions are gradually converging on a track through the center of the state but there are still groupings of members wanting to take the track north and south of the area. The track through the area is relatively favorable for some snowfall in northern areas as winds will have an easterly component, preventing substantial warm air from advecting into the area. Most areas that see snow will probably see less than an inch but a few areas near the canadian border might reach an inch or possibly two. Snow amounts are likely to be terrain dependent with higher elevations receiving the greater amounts. Some slick roads possible Friday night as temperatures drop to around freezing. Snow showers are likely to persist into Saturday with strong, gusty winds up to 40 mph. Along with temperatures in the 30s this is likely to result in wind chills dipping into the 20s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Conditions trending drier today and tonight, with dry conditions areawide Thursday and Thursday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Early this morning, surface low pressure is tracking east along the Maine coast. There is still intermittent rain throughout the area. Any snow in the north has turned to rain as slightly warmer air continues to move in.

The rain will taper off first Downeast and Bangor region, with most of the rain ending by dawn. That said, it will still be rather gloomy and cloudy Downeast and Bangor until perhaps mid- afternoon, when the low pressure center exits to the east and some drier air starts working in. Further north, drying/clearing will be slower, with intermittent light rain persisting through the morning. Some drying this afternoon/evening, but some off and on light showers could persist into the evening. Also, remaining cloudy today in the north with low clouds, and temperatures staying cool with highs only in the 40s in the north.

All areas will be dry late tonight, Thursday, and Thursday night. It looks rather breezy during the day Thursday with winds from the northwest gusting 25-35 mph, but power outages not anticipated.

AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Today...As of 10z, IFR/LIFR areawide, with little change through about 17z. After 17z, some improvement at BGR/BHB with VFR developing somewhere 19-23z. E winds around 10 kts becoming variable and light, then shifting to the NW late.

Tonight...VFR, except MVFR Aroostook terminals before roughly 6z. NW winds 10-15kts, gusting around 25 kts mainly after 6z.

Thursday...VFR. NW winds 10-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts.

Thursday night...VFR. Light and variable winds.

Friday - Saturday...MVFR/IFR possible in rain, and possibly snow mixing in over the north through Friday night. MVFR over the north Saturday with snow showers. SE winds 10 to 15 kts Friday, increasing to 15 to 20 kts out of the NW Saturday with gusts up to 35 kts.

Saturday night - Sunday...VFR. WNW winds 10-20 kts.

MARINE

SE winds decrease through the morning to 10-15 kts as low pressure tracks east along the coast. NW winds increase tonight into Thursday, and may reach gale over the outer waters late tonight and Thursday morning. Seas early today of 5-8 ft subside to 3-6 ft late today into this evening.

Below SCA winds and seas Thursday night through Friday morning on the coastal and intracoastal waters, then winds and seas increase to SCA criteria on all waters Friday afternoon, becoming gales on all waters Friday night, persisting through Saturday. Winds decrease to SCA criteria Sunday. Seas peak at 11 to 13 ft on the outer waters and 6 to 9 ft on the coastal waters early Saturday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ050- 051. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ052.