textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Confidence increasing in dry conditions Monday-Thursday next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated to scattered snow/rain showers will occur throughout the weekend.

2) Persistent dry conditions next week will lead to a worsening of the ongoing water resource drought impacting Eastern and Northern Maine.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Isolated to scattered snow/rain showers will occur throughout the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A closed upper low will move south across the region today, exiting tonight. An upper level disturbance then moves south across the region Sunday. Both the closed low and upper disturbance will support isolated to scattered snow/rain showers today and Sunday. Any snow accumulations today through Sunday will be minimal, generally only a few tenths of an inch. However, local accumulations up to around an inch could occur across higher terrain areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Persistent dry conditions next week will lead to a worsening of the ongoing water resource drought impacting Eastern and Northern Maine.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A large high pressure system centered over the Mid-Atlantic coast will remain fairly stationary throughout next week. Upper air models indicate a very slow moving ridge that keeps high pressure in place. Warm, dry air from the desert SW is expected to be piped into the region, which should bring temps into the low 50s Wednesday through Friday. Possible breezy conditions during the day will further lead to dry conditions. This continued dry weather will allow for soil moisture to dry/remain at much below normal levels next week.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Tonight...Across northern areas, variable conditions with any snow showers. Otherwise, MVFR/IFR. Across Downeast areas, VFR. Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday...Across northern areas, variable conditions with any snow/rain showers. Otherwise, MVFR. Across Downeast areas, VFR. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Sunday Night...MVFR becoming VFR overnight across all terminals. Winds 5-10 knots from the northwest.

Monday-Thursday: VFR, except for a very low chance of MVFR at northern terminals on Wednesday. WNW winds 5-10 kts, W winds 5-10 kts Tuesday through Thursday.

MARINE

Winds/seas generally below small craft advisory levels tonight through Sunday. However, a few wind gusts could approach small craft advisory levels Sunday.

Small Craft Conditions are possible on the coastal ocean waters Sunday evening, however confidence is not quite high enough to issue an SCA at this time. From Monday-Thursday, the coastal waters should see sustained winds of 15 kt or less and seas 3 ft or less.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.