textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Have slowed POPs this morning into midday to keep rain mainly confined to the Downeast, Bangor Region into portions of the Upper Penobscot Valley.

- Lowered wind gusts over the eastern Coastal Waters to the Hague Line.

- Lowered wave heights to follow the trends.

- Lowered total QPF through Tuesday AM due to overall trend of high pressure and dry air to our north limiting precipitation expansion northward.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A Noreaster will impact at least Downeast Maine this weekend into Tuesday AM, bringing breezy winds, high surf, and periods of rain.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A Noreaster will impact at least Downeast Maine this weekend into Monday and possibly Tuesday, bringing gusty winds, high surf, and periods of rain.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... This morning the center of low pressure that is this Noreaster is approx 110mi SE of New York City. It is slowly drifting NW this morning towards the NJ/NY coastline. A large occlusion is wrapped up just south of Cape Cod with a triple point near Georges Bank. Satellite imagery is showing moisture advecting north in Maine from the the Atlantic which extends back to the Bahamas. This has increased PWATs over Downeast Maine into the 175-200 percent of normal range for late September. At the same time a strong 1028mb high pressure system sits over Central Quebec with a 584dam 500mb ridge. The placement of the ridge and North Atlantic low pressure near Greenland is preventing this Noreaster from moving and nearly cutoff from the flow.

Throughout the day expecting the Noreaster low pressure to drift closer to NYC as surface high drifts into the Maritimes. This will result in lessening precip chances across the CWA today. Tonight, the 500mb ridge will fold over and shift out over the North Atlantic which will allow the upper level low of this Noreaster to lift back into the mid latitude westerlies. This will begin to push the surface low northward into Southern New England as it slowly begins to weaken. The northerly movement will allow for increasing POPs across the entire CWA tonight into Monday and lasting into Tuesday with periods of rain expected. Overall, the wind field will weaken as the sfc low pressure lifts N then NE across the Gulf of Maine. Then by Tuesday afternoon the system will be exiting east across Nova Scotia. Here is what to expect for the various components of the storm:

Periods of Rain...Rain chances will be far greater Downeast than northern areas for this AM, tapering to showers during the day, then areawide increasing POPs tonight lasting into Tuesday AM. Although there remains significant uncertainty how many periods of rain develop the overall trend has been consistent in lower values across the area through Tuesday AM. However, with PWATs areawide eventually up to around 190 percent of normal we can expect some beneficial rainfall. The best beneficial rainfall will be across the Bangor Region to far Southern Aroostook County and points southward to the Downeast coast. It is here that 0.6-1 inch is expected for totals, north of here significant uncertainty exists due to dry air, totals in northern areas generally 0.1-0.3 inch. We do not expect any flooding concerns anywhere given the D1-D3 drought conditions. In fact nearly all of the rainfall will likely be absorbed into the near surface ground and very unlikely any water gets into the rivers and streams. Rivers and streams are currently in the 1-15th percentile range with many approaching top 5 lowest flows on record.

Breezy Winds...Winds from the northeast will be the gustiest through Monday AM and begin to weaken into the afternoon and Monday night. Winds will be stronger the further south you go but will top out around 25 mph across Bangor and the Downeast with the system remaining so far south of the CWA. Isolated higher gusts possible especially near the Downeast coastline exposed to the NE winds across the open waters. We don't anticipate impacts from the wind other than maybe a very few isolated power outages Downeast.

High Surf...Seas near the shore will be fairly rough with 4-8 ft seas, much of it as a longer period south/southeast swell. We are not expecting impactful coastal flooding, though waves breaking on the rocks will be hazardous for any onlookers. Conditions should be a bit more hazardous for coastal Hancock than coastal Washington. Conditions slowly ease tonight into Monday.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 12z..VFR at Aroostook terms with light N-NNE winds. BGR/BHB VFR with -RA/BR and NE winds 5-15kt gusting up to 20kt. BGR/BHB slowly become MVFR cigs as -RA tapers to VCSH.

Today...VFR Aroostook terms with NE winds 5-10kt gusting up to 20kt possible. BGR/BHB MVFR cigs with VCSH becoming low end VFR OVC035 by afternoon.

Tonight...VFR cigs north, BGR/BHB becoming MVFR again. -RA developing late at BHB/BGR. NE winds 5-15kt with gusts up to 25kt possible at BHB and BGR.

Monday...VFR becoming MVFR late day at Aroostook terms. MVFR becoming IFR at BGR and BHB. -RA at southern terms with -RA developing late day at northern terms. NE winds 5-15kt with gusts up to 25kt.

Monday Night...Generally MVFR north with potential for IFR cigs. IFR likely south. Areawide -RA likely. NE wind 5-10 kts.

Tuesday...MVFR/IFR early with -RA becoming MVFR/VFR in the afternoon. N-NNE winds 5-15kt.

Tuesday night to Thursday...Mainly VFR with light winds.

MARINE

Intra-Coastal Waters...A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 2PM Monday. NE winds 15-25kt with gusts up to 30kt and long period (9-10sec) south-southeast swells 4-7ft. Winds/seas expected to fall below SCA criteria Monday afternoon. Periods of rain from today through Tuesday AM may reduce vsby to 3nm at times. Winds expected to be less than 10kt from Tuesday PM into Thursday with potential gusts to 20kt returning Friday. Seas generally 1-3ft Wed-Fri.

Coastal Waters out to 25nm...On the Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point to Stonington out 25nm a Gale Warning remains in effect until 8PM this evening. NE winds 20-25kt with gusts up to 40kt and long period (10-11sec) south-southeast swells 7-10ft. On the Coastal Waters from Schoodic Point to Eastport out 25nm and east to the Hague Line a Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 8PM Monday. NE winds 15-25kt with gusts up to 30kt and long period (10-11sec) south-southeast swells of 5-8ft. Periods of rain from today through Tuesday AM may reduce vsby to 3nm at times. Expecting winds/seas to fall below SCA criteria late Monday night into early Tuesday AM. Winds generally less than 15kt for Wed-Thu and then back near 20kt for Fri. Seas generally 2-3ft Wed-Fri.

Waters 25-60nm...A Gale Warning remains in effect until 8PM this evening. NE winds 20-25kt with gusts up to 40kt. Long period (9-11sec) south-southeast swells 8-12ft. Periods of rain from today through Tuesday AM may reduce vsby to 3nm at times. Winds fall below 20kt late Mon night and remain below 20kt through Thu Eve then may gust up to 25kt on Fri. Seas 4-5ft on Tue then 2-3ft for Wed and Thu with 3-4ft for Fri.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ050. Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ051-080-081. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for ANZ052.