textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Beach Hazards Statement issued for coastal portions of Hancock and Washington counties today.

- Increased confidence in the timing of the Sunday night - Monday night system.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers, and potentially a few thunderstorms, likely late this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers, and potentially a few thunderstorms, likely late this weekend into early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A cold front approaches our area tonight as an area of low pressure moves north along it Sunday night. The low should pass north of our area Sunday night into Monday while strengthening. Models have come into better agreement on timing, with Monday looking like the period for the heaviest rainfall but there are still some differences in the guidance that prevent higher confidence in this event. Ensembles show about about a 60-80% chance of at least 0.5 inches of rainfall over the North with lower chances of 30-40% further south. One thing to watch will be if low pressure can develop over the Gulf of Maine. Models generally only show weak development with offshore rain bands but if this trends upwards then higher totals may be possible along the coast. Some thunderstorms remain possible Sunday over the North with the advancing cold front and during the day on Monday areawide. Currently thinking the greatest chance for storms will be Sunday, especially if clouds are not too widespread. Monday will likely feature isolated elevated convection, mostly away from the coast. Another key factor to watch with this event is fog. Areas of fog, possibly dense, expected tonight and Sunday night as light southerly winds bring a moist, stable marine layer inland. Expect the densest fog south of the Katahdin region. Patchy fog may persist into each morning.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Today...Variable conditions with any patchy fog early. Otherwise, VFR/MVFR this morning then VFR this afternoon. Isolated showers/thunderstorms possible across west-central areas this afternoon. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots.

Tonight...Variable conditions with patchy/areas of fog. Otherwise, VFR early. MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, late. South/southeast winds around 5 knots.

Sunday...Variable conditions with patchy/areas of fog early. Otherwise, MVFR/IFR occasional LIFR early then VFR. Variable conditions with a chance of afternoon showers/thunderstorms across mostly northern and central areas. South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Sunday night - Monday...IFR/LIFR Sunday night with areas of fog which may persist into Monday morning. MVFR/IFR Monday in rain showers and isolated T-storms. S winds 5 to 10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts.

Monday night - Tuesday...Becoming VFR Monday night. W winds 5-10 kts, increasing to 10 to 15 kts during the day with gusts to 20 kts.

Tuesday night - Wednesday...VFR except for brief MVFR in some isolated showers possible. Light W winds, shifting to S winds 5-10 kts Wednesday.

MARINE

Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels today through Sunday. Patchy fog this morning. Areas of fog tonight through Sunday.

Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions through Monday. Becoming S winds today through Monday, then W/SW through Wednesday. Seas 3-4 ft through Tuesday, increasing to 5 ft on the coastal and intracoastal waters Monday night. Seas below SCA criteria by Wednesday. Rain possible late Sunday into Monday night. Fog likely tonight, Sunday night, and Monday night.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for MEZ029-030. MARINE...None.