textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- Increased confidence in precipitation timing and amounts today into tonight.

- Increased confidence in a rain and snow system Friday into Saturday with the greatest chance for snow over the North

- Strong winds Friday night into Saturday will bring cold temperatures, dipping into the 20s and teens

KEY MESSAGES

1) Significant precipitation developing today and persisting into Tuesday night, with light wintry precipitation possible over Moosehead and North Woods areas today and this evening. The wintry precipitation is not expected to impact travel, and flooding is not expected.

2) Widespread rain is likely again Friday/Friday night. Chance of accumulating wintry precipitation for northern areas and strong winds Friday night into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Significant precipitation developing today and persisting into Tuesday night, with light wintry precipitation possible over Moosehead and North Woods areas today and this evening. The wintry precipitation is not expected to impact travel, and flooding is not expected.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Not much change in our thinking for the upcoming event. Early this (Tuesday) morning, a much cooler airmass has worked in behind a cold front. Today, clouds will increase and thicken from the west, with precipitation developing from west to east from late morning to early evening. The majority of the day will be dry but cool along the New Brunswick border, but precipitation will begin as early as about 10-11am from Bar Harbor to Bangor to Moosehead Lake. Cold air damming will be strong over the area, and a cool rain is expected for most areas with cold air damming strong holding into the evening as surface low pressure tracks from west to east along the coast. However, it should be cold enough from Moosehead Lake north to the North Woods and maybe to the St John Valley for some snow, or rain mixed with snow, from onset today into the evening. Temperatures will be very marginal and think that where snow does fall, it will have trouble accumulating. Some higher elevations of the North Woods and into the Central Highlands around Katahdin could see a few inches, but most other places that do see flakes will have little/no accumulation. Anticipate areas from Caribou south to Houlton and south along I-95 and over in Downeast will be all rain, albeit a cold rain. Warming aloft is strong enough by about midnight that everywhere will go over to plain rain. Rain continues overnight Tuesday night especially in the north, and some showers persist mainly Wednesday morning in the north, while Downeast dries out. Storm total precipitation will be fairly impressive, with 2/3 inch to 1.25 inch, with the higher totals being either along the coast or in the Central Highlands and Moosehead Lake region. This will not be enough precipitation for flooding, though. Winds are not a concern with this system.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread rain is likely again Friday/Friday night. Chance of accumulating wintry precipitation for northern areas and strong winds Friday night into Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A strong low pressure system is expected to approach our area from the west early Friday, bringing widespread precipitation to the region. Current ensemble guidance shows a 50 to 60% chance of at least 0.5 inches of precipitation. Snow is also possible over the North with some light accumulations possible but the amount of snow will depend heavily on the track the system takes. If the storm tracks to the north of the area then southerly flow will dominate, bringing warmer air northward which will result in more rain. Alternatively, if the storm tracks further south over the Gulf of Maine then a more easterly wind will limit the amount of warm air transport, allowing for more snowfall. Model guidance is currently split over which solution will prevail. However, solutions with the storm tracking north favor a stronger system which as it departs will result in some quite gusty winds Friday night into Saturday, possibly exceeding 30 mph. Regardless of exact track, winds are still likely to be elevated in the wake of the system which in combination with cold air coming in behind it will result in wind chills dipping into the 20s and teens.

AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Tuesday...VFR until about 21z for Aroostook terminals, when rain or a rain/snow mix arrives and MVFR develops. GNR/BGR/BHB will see precipitation developing roughly at 14z, with rain for BGR/BHB but snow or rain/snow at GNR. Generally MVFR at BHB/BGR with the rain, though IFR could develop late in the day. E/SE winds 5-10 kts.

Tuesday night...IFR, occasional LIFR. Rain, possibly mixed with snow in the far north. East winds 5-10 knots for northern terminals with gusts to 20 knots. For KBHB and KBGR, winds 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots from the east. LLWS for most sites.

Wednesday...MVFR/VFR with isolated to scattered showers mainly northern terminals. West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Wednesday night through Thursday...VFR. Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 to 30 knots.

Thursday night...VFR. Light and variable winds.

Friday - Saturday...MVFR/IFR possible in rain, and possibly snow mixing in over the North. SE winds 5 to 10 kts Friday, increasing to 15 to 20 kts out of the NW Saturday with gusts up to 35 kts.

MARINE

E/SE winds around 25 kts continue over the waters today into tonight, and could approach gale force later tonight...something to keep an eye on. Seas 4-8 ft through tonight. Winds switch to W on Wednesday and temporarily drop to around 15-20 kts.

SCA winds and seas Wednesday night through mid-day Thursday on the coastal waters. Gales possible early Thursday on the outer waters. Below SCA conditions on all waters Thursday night. Winds and seas increase Friday, likely reaching gale criteria on all waters Friday night through Saturday. Seas reach up to 13 ft on the outer waters and 10 ft on the coastal waters Saturday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050-051. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ052.