textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and storms this afternoon/evening into Sunday morning, with locally heavy rain possible tonight.

3) A wetting rain likely Tuesday night through Wednesday to help with the recent dry conditions.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and storms this afternoon/evening into Sunday morning, with locally heavy rain possible tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... 1000mb sfc low currently over swrn Quebec is drawing moisture into CWA this afternoon. Light showers have entered wrn portions of the CWA this afternoon with the steadier rain still back in the Green Mountains attm. Showers should begin to spread into the area over the next 2-3 hours in warm advection. There are 2 main areas of rain with the lopres system moving through tonight. The first will be with the strong low moving thru southern Canada and into the far northern tip of Maine.

The second area looks to move just south of the Downeast coast and is juxtaposed with the favorable region of the upr lvl jet and the stronger vort max moving thru. As far as the chance for storms goes believe that they will be isolated in nature with area in between two areas of lift. However cannot rule out a rumble or two of thunder overnight and have kept mention in considering widespread storms upstream of us. Total rainfall amounts still look to range from 0.50-0.75 inches over northern Aroostook with 0.25-0.50 inches elsewhere and perhaps a local minimum around the Bangor Region.

As far as the smoke goes for tonight, have lost track of where it is located as cloud cover increases. Last time it was visible on satellite was over Cape Cod and this correlates with the moderate air quality being picked up by sensors in eastern MA. Latest run of the RAP for near surface smoke is indicating patchy at best so have removed areas of smoke from this afternoon and tonight.

As the system departs, a brief surge of coastal fog is possible, though as flow quickly turns WNW that should quickly push offshore by mid-morning at the latest. At any rate, something to be mindful of early Sunday morning if you have plans to be out driving in that area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A wetting rain likely Tuesday night through Wednesday to help with the recent dry conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A seasonably strong low pressure system approaches late Tuesday from the west and passes to our north with a cold front crossing the area sometime Wednesday. A steady, wetting rain is likely with the system. Current ensemble guidance shows a 70-80% chance of at least 0.5 inches of rainfall and a 30-50% chance of at least 1 inch of rainfall with the storm which should help provide relief for some of recent dry conditions. 30 day precip departures are running 60-80 percent of normal in the Bangor Region, Central Highlands, Interior Downeast and across Northern Maine. Near surface soil conditions are generally below normal indicating the recent dry spell. Lastly the recent dry spell is noticeable by streamflows across the CWA in the below normal to low end normal conditions for the St. John and Penobscot basins. Across the Downeast and St. Croix basin generally in the below normal to normal conditions.

AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 00z...VFR before decreasing to MVFR in rain by 20z northern Aroostook terminals and by 23z at HUL, BGR and BHB. SSW winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots. Southwesterly low level wind shear possible Downeast late this afternoon.

Tonight...MVFR/IFR in locally heavy rainfall and isolated storms. Confidence not high enough to include -tsra at this time. S winds 10-20kts with gusts approaching 25kts. LLWS values around 30-45 knots at 2kft at BGR and BHB. As rain departs, some coastal fog could impact BHB and BGR prior to sunrise.

Sunday night...VFR. NW winds 5-15kts.

Monday-Tuesday...Mainly VFR. W winds 5-10kts, becoming S Tuesday morning 10-15ts gusting to 25kts.

Tuesday night-Wednesday...Decreasing to MVFR early Tuesday night and likely reaching IFR Wednesday in rain. Isolated thunder possible at all terminals. S/SE winds 10 to 15 kts.

Wednesday night-Thursday...Improving to MVFR with showers and isolated thunder. W/SW winds 5 to 10 kts.

MARINE

SCA in effect for intracoastal and waters out to 25NM with a Gale warning for waters out to 25-60NM and the Hague line. Seas will ramp up to between 5-8 feet in southerly swell this evening before slowly dropping below 5ft Sunday afternoon. S winds will drop below 35kts by 09z tonight for the outer coastal waters and drop below small craft levels early-mid morning Sunday.

Winds and seas below SCA criteria Monday through Tuesday. Winds and seas above SCA criteria Tuesday night through Wednesday night with gales possible on the outer waters. Winds decrease below criteria Thursday but seas remain elevated. Seas peak Wednesday night at 6 to 9 ft on the intracoastal waters, 8 to 10 ft on the coastal waters, and 9 to 11 ft on the outer waters.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MEZ001>006- 010-011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT Sunday for ANZ050>052. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ080-081.