textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

- 730 PM Update: Updates made to the aviation section below with the issuance of the 00z TAFs

- Continue to remove chance of thunder Downeast based on stable SE flow.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain this evening into late tonight.

2) Rain changing to snow across northern Maine Sunday night into Monday morning could lead to a potentially slick Monday morning commute.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain this evening into late tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...Low pressure to the northwest in Canada moves eastward, bringing some moisture along with it. Precipitation moves into Maine from the northwest and spreads southeast. Roughly 0.25 0.4 inches of QPF expected in northern and Downeast Maine, with a swath of 0.5 0.6. inches of rain expected in the Central Highlands/Upper Penobscot Valley/Eastern Aroostook regions. Not anticipating thunderstorms with these showers, based on southeasterly flow off to the Gulf of Maine, stabilizing the surface. With temperatures remaining above freezing tonight into tomorrow, continued rainfall is continued to bring melting snowpack and ice, resulting in some continued river rise. That being said, flooding is not anticipated with this additional rain.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain changing to snow across northern Maine Sunday night into Monday morning could lead to a potentially slick Monday morning commute.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Low pressure will lift along an occluded/cold front crossing the region Sunday night. Colder air will be drawn across the region in the wake of the front allowing a transition from rain to snow across northern portions of the forecast area. How rapidly this transition occurs and how much moisture is left is still uncertain. However, some snow accumulation is possible which could lead to a slick Monday morning commute. Falling temperatures could allow re-freezing of wet roadways southward across the forecast area even where no snow falls.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Tonight...LIFR in low ceilings, rain, and fog development. Winds generally light and from the S, shifting to the N by daybreak.

Friday...LIFR cigs early, lifting to MVFR/VFR by afternoon. Winds from the N around 5kts.

Friday night...MVFR/VFR, with a potential for fog development. Winds N/NE, and light.

Saturday...Occasional IFR/LIFR early. Otherwise. VFR. South/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots.

Saturday night...VFR/MVFR early. IFR/LIFR late with rain developing. South/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Sunday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. Rain. South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming west/northwest.

Sunday night...MVFR/IFR. Rain changing to snow north. Rain Downeast. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots.

Monday...Occasional MVFR early. Otherwise, VFR. Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Monday night and Tuesday...VFR. Northwest/north winds 5 to 10 knots Monday night. Variable 5 to 10 knots Tuesday.

MARINE

Winds and seas stay below Small Craft Criteria tonight into Friday. Rain tonight through tomorrow morning. Potential for some fog to develop overnight, reducing visibility. Seas stay at or below 3 ft in the outer-waters, and at or below 2ft for the intra-coastals. Winds from the SE at 5-10kts this evening, shifting to the S tonight, and then shifting to the N on Friday.

Conditions below small craft advisory levels Saturday into Sunday. Patchy fog early Saturday. Rain and fog Saturday night into Sunday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.