textproduct: Caribou

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Models have trended further south for the storm later this week, with coastal areas on the north fringes of the storm. Overall no significant impacts expected.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Intermittent light rain mixed with snow, mainly north of Bangor, through today. Snow accumulations will be zero except across the higher terrain.

A weak low to the north will move east of the region bringing potential for light rain/snow showers this afternoon and early evening. CAPE values between 20-50 j/kg and modest mid-level lapse rates may help increase coverage during the late morning and afternoon hours. Therefore, little to no accumulation is expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Confidence for impacts regarding the Costa storm is decreasing, however, uncertainty still exists along the immediate Downeast Coast.

Thursday afternoon an area of low pressure will develop off the mid-Atlantic coast and travel eastward. The overall trend for the system the past 24 hours has been suppressed further as northerly flow advects relatively dry air in the region late Thursday into Friday. The combination of the southern New England track and dry air entrainment will keep the precipitation shield primarily south of Bangor along the immediate Downeast Coast. If any location will get any snow wil will be late Thursday night into Friday morning along the route 1 corridor in Hancock and Washington Counties, but even here it will be a light coating at the most. The upper level feature with the system will travel overhead through the weekend, allowing for diurnal rain/snow showers to develop keeping the area under mostly cloudy skies. Accumulations look to be very light through this period, with no drought relief in sight.

MARINE

Developing coastal low will track across the Southern new England waters on Friday with the potential for Gale conditions, especially for the outer coastal zones. A Gale Watch has been issued on Friday to highlight this threat. Confidence is lower for the inner coastal zones, but SCA conditions are at least certain. High seas will remain with SCA conditions into the weekend before quiet weather returns for the beginning of next week over the Gulf of Maine.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. MARINE...None.