textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Lake Wind Advisory will be in effect from early Saturday morning through Sunday evening. Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. A strong cold front is forecast to push through the region tonight, ushering in cooler weather this weekend. Breezy to gusty winds are expected Saturday and Sunday with a Lake Wind Advisory being hoisted.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: A strong cold front is forecast to push through the region tonight, ushering in cooler weather this weekend. Breezy to gusty winds are expected Saturday and Sunday with a Lake Wind Advisory being hoisted.

A strong cold front is currently pushing through the Appalachians this evening, and will be moving into the Piedmont area east of the mountains shortly. The front is still on track to move through our forecast area later tonight. Surface winds over our area have diminished some with sunset, but still remain southwesterly around 5 mph for the most part. As the front moves through between 10p and 3a, winds will turn quickly out of the northwest, and increase once again to between 8-13 mph, and gusts will return and could reach over 30 mph at times.

With strong synoptic forcing overspreading the area behind the front, and possibly enough moisture moving through the region, some light rainfall is still forecast to develop relatively quickly across the area. Some scattered rain is expected between 06z and 15z across the area, with this moving eastward as synoptic forcing shifts eastward. As the rain moves out, a strong pressure gradient will setup across the area thereafter, yielding strong northeasterly winds for most of Saturday and Sunday. Strong cold advection will result in temperatures in the mid to upper 60s Saturday (at best) and only the low 60s on Sunday. Both EFI for temps has trended towards a cool signal this weekend and early next week, adding confidence to well below normal highs and lows settling over the area.

Also, because of the frequent wind gusts of 25-35 mph expected both days, a longer duration Lake Wind Advisory has been issued through Sunday evening. Boaters on area lakes should be cautious, especially in the evening and overnight as warm lake waters will allow stronger wind gusts to persist over the lakes at night. Next week looks beautiful with large daily diurnal spreads owing to a very dry airmass in place. Highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the 40s are likely throughout much of the week.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Generally VFR conditions expected with gusty winds and possible light showers in the early morning hours on Saturday.

Winds this evening have diminished a bit from what we saw early and should remain on the lighter side into the night. As the strong cold front continues to move closer to the region, winds should pick back up from the northwest and become gusty at times after 07-10z. Some light rain is possible with the frontal passage but not confident in vsby restrictions. Guidance is trending to a period of MVFR cigs behind the front with strong cold advection. MVFR cigs may linger through late morning hours but should improve back to VFR near the end of the forecast period for all terminals except maybe OGB. Wind gusts will be above 20 knots for most of the day with a shift to a more northerly component by the end of this TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Gusty winds expected to continue through the weekend due to an increased pressure gradient with a developing coastal low.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116- 135>137. GA...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ040-063>065-077.