textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 06z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Temperatures warm through the week, peaking during the Independence Day weekend.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Temperatures warm through the week, peaking during the Independence Day weekend.

A strong upper ridge centered over the TN Valley and lower MS Valley will migrate slowly northeastward into the OH Valley by mid-week and then become centered over the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the week. This 500mb high is anomalously strong with heights at or above the 99th percentile relative to climatology. As the upper ridge builds closer to the region, temperatures should be warming further with highs in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees for the holiday weekend. Ensembles indicate highly anomalous 850mb temperatures over the 90th percentile and ECMWF EFI also showing anomalous signals in the max temperature field.

Ensembles indicate lowering atmospheric moisture through mid to late week, with PWATs falling below 50 percent of normal, supporting a generally dry forecast when combined with the strong subsidence of the upper ridge. This should also result in better deep mixing and lower dewpoints and therefore lower heat indices mid to late week despite the increasing temperatures. Moisture returns to the region over the weekend and likely will yield heat indices near heat advisory criteria. Regardless, throughout the entire week and forecast period anyone spending a significant amount of time outside should take necessary precautions to handle the heat and stay hydrated. Be sure to make heat safety preparations now and have a plan to monitor children, the elderly, pets, and anyone without adequate indoor cooling.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Overnight, light winds and some mid-level clouds are the only feature of note across the region with convection moving well out. Closer to sunrise, some typical morning MIFG is possible primary at CAE and AGS but with little-no impact on restrictions. Northeasterly winds develop by mid-morning, 6-10 knots with gusts to around 15 knots this afternoon. Chances for any precip are notably lower today, so no mentions in the TAF.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Afternoon convection is less likely for the remainder of the week as ridging builds overhead. Brief early morning restrictions also possible this week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.