textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Key Message 1 to reflect latest forecast trends. Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. A few showers or storms still possible tonight.

- 2. Above normal temperatures last into next week with drier conditions returning.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: A few showers or storms still possible tonight.

Upper troughing continues to move across the southern tier over the next 24 hours. Despite loss of heating, some instability remains across the forecast area and some isolated to scattered showers and storms are moving through the area from southwest to northeast. Lightning activity has started to ramp up as well. Overall severe threat is low, but some gusty winds due to precip loading are possible. After the precip moves through this evening, expect another round of stratus and possibly some patchy fog heading into Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Above normal temperatures last into next week with drier conditions returning.

Sunday into early next week, the trough moves offshore and strong ridging builds over the eastern CONUS. Precip chances are expected to diminish as a result, and PW values fall below 1.6". The ridge is then forecast to remain in control much of next week, and temperatures should remain above normal with decent confidence and small IQR's. Monday should be the warmest day with a notable drop several degrees by Tuesday due to a generally dry backdoor front crossing the region. Surface dewpoints also look to drop further, helping make the airmass more fall-like. Still, highs remain above typical mid-September values. We'll continue to watch for some weakness on the eastern side of the ridge. Models are depicting an interesting feature mid to late next week regarding an upper low rotating around the high from New England south along the Atlantic Coast. There is still plenty of uncertainty regarding this low's evolution in the extended, including if or when it may influence our sensible weather.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible from OGB to CAE/CUB this evening. Another round of morning fog/stratus will be possible Sunday.

Showers and thunderstorms will push through CAE/CUB and OGB this evening with brief VSBY restrictions in heavy rain. Winds may also gust to 25-30 kts. Otherwise, this activity should clear late this evening with winds relaxing to light and variable. Lingering debris clouds can be expected overnight, along with another round of at least patchy stratus/fog early Sunday morning, especially for any locations that receive heavy rainfall. These restrictions could continue through 14-16z Sunday before VFR conditions return with 5-8 kt winds out of the west. A few showers are possible Sunday afternoon, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Lower rain chances Sunday but the potential for early morning fog/stratus persists into early next week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.