textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. A typical summer pattern expected this week with warming temps and increasing moisture.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: A typical summer pattern expected this week with warming temps and increasing moisture.

While dry surface high pressure and deep ridging aloft will control the pattern, moisture returns with southwesterly flow across the area on Sunday. The pattern synoptically will not chance all that much each day with 90th percentile heights and temps expected throughout much of the period, so temps up around 90 F are likely each day. Rain chances hold off until Monday when we reach sufficient low level moisture for diurnally driven showers and storms. Diurnal scattered showers and storms are then expected most days next week with a fairly typically summer pattern in place. The surface ridge will remain a bit too far west for significant rain producing pattern however. PWAT's should climb above 1.75" but with most of the deepest moisture remaining to the west, QPF totals across all guidance is generally only 0.25-0.75" with some isolated areas higher.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions likely through the 24 hour TAF period.

As high pressure moves slowly off the coast, shallow low-level moisture will begin to increase. Although the main cloud cover will still be the cirrus passing through the region, still can not rule out a few vfr cumulus clouds developing by late morning and into the afternoon, similar to yesterday.

Winds will be between 5 to 8 kts from the south/southwest from 15Z through the afternoon. A sea breeze may push inland late this afternoon and into the evening hours, which could briefly turn the wind direction more out of the southeast as it pushes through each taf location. Late tonight winds then become more light and variable.

With the clouds and light wind, fog is not expected.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture continues to increase Monday leading to scattered, mainly diurnal, showers and thunderstorms through the week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.