textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect into this evening. Aviation discussion updated for the 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Cool and breezy conditions continue today with a Lake Wind Advisory in effect through this evening. Temperatures gradually warm to near normal by the mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Cool and breezy conditions continue today with a Lake Wind Advisory in effect through this evening. Temperatures gradually warm to near normal by the mid to late week.

Clear skies as far as the eye can see across the forecast area as high pressure continues to filter into the region this afternoon. The previously discussed coastal upper low and corresponding surface low continue to develop off the coast of NC. This has led to tighter pressure gradient across the area as well as a fairly strong low level jet. As a result, northeast winds are generally reaching 10-15 mph with gusts in the 20-30 mph range. With the northeast winds, cold air advection has also led to well below normal temperatures, currently in the upper 50s to lower 60s at this hour. Afternoon highs could reach the mid 60s, with a few spots possibly reaching the upper 60s. Skies are expected to remain clear allowing for some decent radiational cooling, so a chilly night is in store again tonight. Lows are forecast to be in the lower to mid 40s. A few spots could fall into the upper 30s. However, the lows will be partially dependent on whether the winds stay elevated overnight.

Heading into the rest of the work week, minimal change in the forecast is seen. Reinforcing high pressure should build back in, possibly with brief shortwave ridging into the mid to late week. This pattern should keep much drier air in place (PWAT's under 0.50"), but MOS/NBM and ensemble guidance suggests temperatures should gradually reach closer to normal by the mid to late week. At this time, there remains little confidence in any meaningful rain even into next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Gusty winds and VFR conditions continue.

Northeasterly winds will continue at all terminals with gusts generally 20-25 knots continuing through the afternoon and into this evening. With a loss of daytime heating tonight, gusts are expected to subside but northeasterly winds will continue through 18z with between generally 5 to 10 knots. Dry air remains in place with clear skies continuing and a high probability of VFR conditions. While a brief period of low level wind shear was observed before sunrise this morning, the low level jet tonight is expected to be weaker so have left out any mention of llws.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Probability of restrictions through the extended period is low.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ016-018- 020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137. GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ040- 063>065-077.