textproduct: Columbia
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. Temperatures rise into the weekend and next week to well above average, with record highs possible mid-week.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Temperatures rise into the weekend and next week to well above average, with record highs possible by mid-week.
Surface and upper level ridging will continue to build into the region over the next week, with steady warm advection and, thanks to low PWAT's, strong diurnal heating each day pushing temps well above average over the weekend. Temps will push into the mid-upper 80's both Saturday-Sunday. The pattern will continue to amplify throughout early next week, lasting through the end of the week. Synoptically and climatologically it is an ideal setup for potential record breaking high temps given the lack of deep moisture and persistent, reinforcing southwesterly warm advection. NAEFS and ECE broadly show a 99th percentile airmass for temps and heights across the region. EC EFI has trended more extreme in EFI near 1.0 and SoT over 2, with the potential for record breaking temps by late week, as has the NBM, with the forecast mean now in the mid-90's by Thursday. Given the already dry soils and significant model consensus, some daily record highs are definitely in play as is the all time April record high of 96 F (1896).
No rain is forecast over the next 7 days, and the ECE-GEFS and their AI ensemble counterparts continue the dry stretch well beyond 7 days. So drought conditions will worsen through at least late April.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.
Clear skies continue across the region with light winds that at times have been out of the NE to ENE, but are fairly squirrely. These winds eventually become light and variable to calm overnight as FEW to SCT cirrus are expected to move in. As mentioned in the previous discussion, there is a non-zero chance for typical shallow fog near AGS/OGB, but chances remain below 15% at this time and any that could develop does not look to bring significant impacts. Once the inversion breaks Saturday morning, winds briefly pick up to around 5 kts out of the WNW to NW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Chances for widespread restrictions continues to remain low in the extended.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None. GA...None.
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