textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Scattered showers continue this morning, tapering off from southwest to northeast today. Aviation discussion updated for 06z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Scattered showers continue into Sunday morning, with some locally heavy rain possible.

- 2. Dry, warm weather favored for next week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Scattered showers continue into Sunday morning, with some locally heavy rain possible.

A cold front remains just to the west of the area moving through eastern Georgia early this morning with upper low pressure over the TN Valley. With PWATs greater than 2 inches across the area, rainfall remains efficient with some lingering instability across the forecast area with strong warm advection ahead of the front which has actually allowed temperatures to rise a few degrees overnight. Widespread flooding is not anticipated overnight with observations indicating half inch to inch per hour rain rates. As the upper low continues to move closer, the flow aloft will increase further limiting the flooding threat. The front moves through the area today with showers tapering off from southwest to northeast with much of the area completely dry by Sunday afternoon outside of some possible isolated light showers with the upper low pushing into the area. Overall, a much drier Sunday is expected with temperatures near normal.

Key Message 2: Dry, warm weather favored for next week

Global ensembles are in good agreement that upper level ridging will build over the Deep South for most of next week. PWAT values below 1.5 inches and NAEFS 500 mb heights at or above the 90th percentile for the time of year supports dry weather with rising temperatures through the first part of the week. Highs will likely be in the mid to upper 80s for the middle of the week (Tue - Thu); approaching record highs.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Widespread restrictions are expected to continue into Sunday morning before gradually improving.

Generally IFR ceilings are being noted at the terminals a the start of the TAF period. Expect IFR to LIFR ceilings to continue for the next several hours as low level moisture remains high. The next round of showers is moving into the area at this time and is anticipated to affect the terminals over the next few hours, likely ending just prior to 12z. Southeast winds from 5-10 kts are expected to shift to more southerly ahead of an incoming front. Prior to the wind shift, some low level wind shear remains possible, so have left that in the TAF for this issuance. After the front passes, winds shift southwesterly and become breezy as wind gusts increase to the 20-25 kt range. The ceilings are expected to improve after this frontal passage and should be VFR around midday or so and remain there the rest of TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Conditions continue to improve into early next week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for SCZ018-025-030-035- 041-135>137. GA...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for GAZ040-063>065-077.