textproduct: Columbia
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Forecast for the next week remains on track. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAFs.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. Warming trend begins today, continuing into this weekend with dry conditions. Diurnal rain chances may return early next week.
DISCUSSION
Key Message 1: Warming trend begins today, continuing into this weekend with dry conditions. Diurnal rain chances may return early next week.
A strong upper ridge near the NAEFS 90th percentile is shifting overhead starting today. Surface high pressure will also consolidate over the east coast and remain quasistationary into this weekend. These features will bring a slight warming trend back to normal early June temperatures into this weekend, with highs Friday and Saturday in the upper 80s to low 90s. Uncharacteristically for this time of year , models generally keep deep moisture out the area with PWAT's only about 50-60% of normal, limiting the threat for any diurnal convection and keeping our sensible weather rather pleasant. This changes a bit Sunday into early next week as high pressure slides offshore and brings a more southerly flow into the region. This will bump up dewpoints back into the 60s as moisture levels return closer to seasonal norms. Early next week, weakness in the upper ridge and a few shortwaves passing near the area may lead to better chance for some diurnally driven convection, particularly given better moisture availability.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Mainly VFR Conditions should continue through the TAF period at all sites.
High pressure will remain in control, supporting dry weather and VFR conditions. Winds are expected to diminish after sunset and become light and variable overnight.
With the airmass remaining quite dry, I do not expect any significant fog. However, some localized river or valley fog cannot be completely ruled out at the more fog-prone terminals early Friday morning at AGS/OGB. Probabilities are still quite low at this time, but I thought it would be worth mentioning. Winds will pick back up Friday midday as daytime mixing develops. Skies will remain clear, with only a few high cirrus clouds beginning to arrive toward the end of the TAF period.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Drier air continues to hang on through the weekend with mainly VFR conditions expected.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None. GA...None.
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