textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Key Message to reflect the latest convective trends. Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. A more typical summer-like pattern expected this week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: A more typical summer-like pattern expected this week.

Early evening radar imagery showing continued isolated to scattered convection in an unstable environment with MLCAPE values still around 1500-2000 J/kg but weakly sheared. Storms have been fighting rising heights most of the day that is changing with the eastward movement of a shortwave trough crossing the TN Valley at this time. More organized convection is moving across northern GA and southwest NC associated with the height falls, but latest runs of HRRR continue to diminish this convection before reaching our forecast area later tonight as atmosphere stabilizes. We remain under a marginal risk of severe weather. Some additional chances of rain may increase again around 12z as the upper trough and weak frontal boundary cross the region.

Typical summertime conditions persist through much of the week, featuring hot and humid weather with isolated afternoon and evening convection. Brief ridging develops Wednesday before another shortwave weakness it. A surge of moisture increases on Thursday and Friday leading to higher rain chances. Ridging returns and strengthens into the upcoming weekend pushing temperatures well into the 90s, with some global models suggesting upper 90s possible early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

A few isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening, otherwise mainly VFR conditions.

A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are moving through central GA and the Carolina's. Most of the coverage remains to our west and north, not enough to mention in the current TAF issuance. Some Hi-res models indicate a few storms could move closer to the TAF sites throughout the evening and into the night, however, confidence remains too low for any impacts or inclusion at this time. Most convection should clear out by 06z with any restrictions lifting after.

Winds turn slightly to more westerly by late Tuesday morning. Winds also remain gusty, up to 20 knots, with a few isolated showers/storms around during the morning hours as the front fully moves on top of the FA. Diurnal convection is possible again tomorrow, otherwise mainly dry and clear conditions are expected.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...For the remainder of the week, diurnally-driven widely scattered convection is expected.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.