textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to key messages. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Dry weather continues this week with gradually warming temperatures through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Dry weather continues this week with gradually warming temperatures through Saturday. Forecast thinking is more or less on track with the extended dry period most likely continuing through the end of the month. Upper ridge will slowly translate east through the week and flatten out by Thursday, while surface high pressure remains anchored over the northeast and ridges south across the eastern seaboard. This will result in slightly warmer temperatures each day with fairly high confidence given very small NBM IQRs through Saturday, so expect a continuation of warm days and cool nights this week. Temperatures should reach above normal values by Friday and Saturday. The pattern starts to show some signs of shifting Sunday into next week, with the next chance of rain returning to the forecast for the first day of November. This may also bring temperatures down a few degrees with the pattern looking a bit more active into the extended.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, cannot rule out shallow river fog or again.

Light northeasterly winds and mostly clear skies should continue the remainder of the afternoon and into this evening. Overnight, winds once again become light and variable to calm with FEW to SCT cirrus streaming into the region. A couple high- res models like the HRRR, RRFS and the 12z HREF suggest some stratus development in southern NC and the Pee Dee could drift southward early in the morning Wednesday but at this time there is limited confidence in this occurring as LAMP, NBM, and REFS guidance keeps VFR conditions in place. Changes in guidance will be monitored prior to 00z TAF issuance for this potential. Overall, confidence in cig restrictions is low, but non-zero. Also cannot rule out shallow river fog mainly near AGS/OGB around daybreak Wednesday. After this, winds pick up to around 6-10 kts by the late morning with a few gusts to 15-18 kts possible through the end of the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant aviation concerns through the week. A few to scattered high VFR clouds may move in through Thursday due to onshore flow, but otherwise remaining dry.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.