textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rain chances today will be highest near the North Carolina border as the cold front slowly approaches. 12Z Aviation Discussion Updated.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. A slow-moving front will approach from the north today with rain chances focused across the far northern portion of the forecast area. Unsettled weather continues for the remainder of the week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: A slow-moving front will approach from the north today with rain chances focused across the far northern portion of the forecast area. Unsettled weather continues for the remainder of the week.

A cold front will slowly approach from the north today but is not expected to reach the FA until late tonight or early Thursday. This means that another hot, humid, and dry day is expected across much of the CWA, with the best chance for showers and thunderstorms near the North Carolina border. Temperatures should be similar to Tuesday with forecast highs in the lower to mid 90s. It appears that the majority of the rain should arrive after dark, limiting the threat for severe weather. The southern Midlands and CSRA may remain dry Wednesday and Wednesday night outside of an isolated shower or thunderstorm.

As the front stalls out near or over the region on Thursday, another round of stronger convection may develop. Regardless, the greater concern appears to be the potential for heavy rainfall from late Wednesday through Thursday. PWATs exceeding 2" and relatively skinny CAPE profiles will favor efficient rainfall rates, while the stalled boundary could support training convection. The ECMWF remains the most aggressive solution, with the overall environment supporting a heavy rainfall setup. That said, it is uncommon for a front to push this far south in late July, so continued downtrends are anticipated but this will be monitored.

The boundary is expected to linger across much of the area through Friday, as another shortwave approaches maintaining scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm chances. Forecast confidence decreases into the weekend, but the overall pattern remains favorable for unsettled weather.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

High pressure and drier air will linger across the region today before a front approaches tonight. Ahead of the front breezy southwest winds will continue today with gusts up to 20 knots across the area. Rain chances are low today, so confidence for even a prob30 is not high enough to include in this set of TAFs. After some cirrus from convection well to the west clears the area this morning, only some typical summer cu expected this afternoon in terms of cloud cover. Showers likely become more widespread towards the end of the period, but confidence in timing is too low for a mention yet.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Periodic restrictions from showers and thunderstorms likely beginning Thursday morning late this week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.