textproduct: Columbia

SYNOPSIS

High pressure keeps dry conditions in place through the weekend with gradual warming trend continuing. The next chance of rain holds off until early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Temperatures near normal

High pressure in place over the Southeast which will lead to continued benign weather. Deep layer dry air will be reinforced by developing northwest flow as an an upper ridge strengthens over the Plains. Satellite derived PWAT estimates are around 4 tenths of an inch. A few high clouds possible today but otherwise clear skies. Temperatures continue to moderate, near normal today with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s and lows tonight in the upper 30s and low 40s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Dry high pressure in place with warming temps into the weekend

Persistent northwesterly flow aloft will continue to provide the forecast area with dry and warming conditions into the weekend. 500mb heights gradually rise this period as an upper trough moves off the New England coast and upper ridging over the middle of the country translates eastward. A series of shortwaves will remain to our north moving through the northwesterly flow but will have little impact on our weather due to PWATs being around a half inch. Temperatures should be near normal on Friday with high pressure overhead but should warm above normal on Saturday as the high shifts to our south and southwesterly flow develops.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Key message(s):

- Persistent dry weather continues through the long term with above normal temperatures

Little change from previous forecasts as ensembles continue to show a strong shortwave trough digging across the Great Lakes into New England on Sunday which will drive a cold front through the forecast area by Monday morning. Despite atmospheric moisture increasing with PWATs rising to around an inch along and ahead of the front, the best forcing remains well to our north with continued downsloping flow so expect the front to pass dry. EC EFI continues to show anomalously strong winds on Sunday. The warming trend will continue with low level southwesterly flow resulting in highs on Sunday in the mid to upper 70s.

Expect slightly cooler temperatures on Monday behind the front but it will be brief as 500mb flow flattens to a more westerly direction through early next week with generally southwesterly surface flow keeping temperatures above normal through mid week. A fast moving shortwave in the zonal flow aloft will move into the Mid Atlantic on Tuesday bringing another weak front toward the region with above normal PWATs supporting isolated chances of rain.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions expected to continue.

High pressure remains in place over the terminals over the next 24 hours. Some passing high clouds but otherwise clear skies. Winds will be light, increasing out of the WNW after sunrise around 5 knots. Dry air mass in place, reinforced by additional dry air moving in today which will limit the potential for fog development this morning. Potential for brief visibility restrictions at fog prone AGS and OGB tonight but overall fog threat remains low.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions likely continue into the weekend with dry air in place.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.