textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation updated for 00z issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Outside of a few showers late this weekend rain chances remain low through mid-next week before the pattern becomes active late next week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Outside of a few showers late this weekend rain chances remain low through mid-next week before the pattern becomes active late next week.

Another reinforcing surface high pressure is settling into the Mid-Atlantic this evening, with drier and cooler air ushering into the area for the weekend. As this occurs, high level clouds are approaching from the west, a harbinger of a shortwave trough that is expected to slowly stretch out over the next couple of days. A modest increase in moisture is expected as the aformentioned trough pushes eastward towards the area through the rest of the weekend but few impacts are expected out of that. Guidance shows some scattered showers possible on Sunday evening and into early Monday, but otherwise, mid-level clouds and cooler temperatures are expected this weekend.

A strong trough is forecast to eject out of the Southwest CONUS Monday before occluding and then sluggishly moving across the US. Moisture return ahead of this trough should be enough to bring some decent rainfall potential for Thursday and Friday, but beyond that, predictability falls apart with large inter-run and ensemble variability. While the more recent trends favor a northerly low pressure track, one that would inhibit severe potential, there are still enough hints within both the physics ensembles and AI suite that we could have some low-end severe threat later next week. This will be predicated upon these shortwaves and occluded low interactions which are notoriously difficult to predict, hence the large run-to-run variations. Regardless, rain chances increase late next week but the last few model suites have favored a drier solution.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF forecast period.

Satellite imagery shows widespread cirrus clouds blanketing the region and these clouds should remain in place through the forecast period. Drier air has moved into the region with dewpoints falling into the 30s/40s and combined with cloud cover, fog is not a concern.

Winds should stay up overnight from the northeast around 5 to 7 knots before picking up to around 10 knots after sunrise with intermittent gusts up to 20 knots into the afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low level moisture increases early next week and may lead to ceiling restrictions on Tuesday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.