textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Little change in the overall forecast. Aviation discussion updated for the 06z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Rain chances increase this weekend into early next week, but meaningful drought relief remains unlikely.

- 2. Elevated fire weather concerns and periodic smoke impacts will persist this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Rain chances increase this weekend into early next week, but meaningful drought relief remains uncertain.

A more unsettled pattern is expected to develop over the next 5 days with several chances for rain in the forecast. A cold front is forecast to move through this afternoon and evening, with higher chances for showers arrive. There will be some support for a few thunderstorms as well, but no significant severe threat as storm organization should be kept to a minimum. The chance for additional showers and storms continue Sunday mainly for the eastern portion of the forecast area as high pressure shifts over the eastern seaboard and surface flow turns out of the northeast. The next chance for rain arrives late Tuesday and Wednesday in the form of a couple shortwaves moving through the mid-level ridge. This may bring some severe potential as instability and shear values increase, but there isn't enough information at this time to get into the details. Additionally, there is an outside chance for some slightly higher rainfall amounts, especially if PWATS exceed the currently forecast 175% of normal. Even if we receive some rain and brief relief with all of these systems, the drought is unlikely to be significantly reduced anytime soon. The latest runs of the GEFS and ECENS continue to show very low chances, less than 20%, for 7-day rainfall totals over 1". So, expecting the severe to extreme drought to persist for the foreseeable future.

Key Message 2: Elevated fire weather concerns and periodic smoke impacts will persist this weekend.

A fairly dry airmass remains in place across the region with dewpoints in the 50s. Expect a continuation of increased fire concerns given the extensive drought and active wildfires across the region. Moisture increases will modestly improve conditions. We also may continue to see smoke impacts from fires to the south as the HRRR smoke guidance indicates that smoke could linger in the region. The SC Forestry Commission continues a Burn Ban until further notice.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through Saturday morning with showers-storms possible Saturday afternoon and evening.

VFR conditions in place with clear skies and SSW winds through the morning. As a cold front approaches the area today, moisture will increase, in addition to southwesterly winds, although generally remaining between 5 to 10 knots with a few gusts into the mid to upper teens possible. As the cold front moves in, expect widespread showers to develop late this afternoon into this evening, although rainfall expected to be generally light with low confidence in any restrictions associated with them. There remains a low chance for thunderstorms as well, but storm coverage will likely be more limited so have left the mention out of the forecast with this cycle.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Some periodic vsby and cig restrictions are possible over the next week with a more unsettled pattern and chances for rain Sunday and Tuesday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.