textproduct: Columbia

SYNOPSIS

Above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions are expected to continue through the weekend, though Friday will see a brief cooldown. The passage of a strong cold front early next week will lead to much colder conditions to close out the year, though the chance of rain during the next seven days is low.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/

Key message(s):

- Another warm night expected.

After topping out in the mid to upper 70s today, above average temperatures will continue into tonight with upper ridging over the forecast area, centered over the Gulf. High level clouds streaming in over the periphery of the ridge which will continue to allow for warm lows, generally in the low to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Above normal temperatures expected through the period, especially on Christmas Day and Saturday.

- Clouds from a passing storm system will likely result in cooler temperatures on Friday, especially across the Pee Dee.

- Rain chances are low, less than 20 percent, with the best chance occurring Friday night in the CSRA.

Strong upper ridging anchored over the Central CONUS will continue to provide above normal temperatures during the short term. At the surface, high pressure centered over the eastern gulf will keep the region dry, barring a low risk of light rain in the CSRA Friday night. A passing storm system on Friday will bring more clouds to the FA, likely reducing temperatures, though forecast temperatures all three days will be above seasonal values. There remains a high probability for a top 5 warmest Christmas Day for both Columbia and Augusta. Please refer to the Climate Section below for more specifics on the daily records.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Key message(s):

- A mainly dry cold front crosses the region on Monday with much colder conditions behind it.

The upper ridge flattens significantly on Sunday in response to a potent trough that will pass to our north on Monday. The attendant cold front will sweep through the region on Monday. While PWATs are not significantly high, there is a chance for rain with the frontal passage, mainly across the northern half of the forecast area which will be closer to the upper level support. The chance of rain on Monday remains fairly low, between 20 and 30 percent. More importantly, a much colder air mass filters in behind the boundary Monday night as temperatures swing to below seasonal values to close out the year.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions generally expected through the TAF period.

BKN to OVC high clouds expected to move in from the northwest with light and variable to calm surface winds. Model guidance continues to show SCT-BKN clouds around 3-5kft MSL early Thursday morning, but CIGS should remain VFR. While patchy fog cannot be ruled out early Thursday at the typically prone AGS/OGB, confidence remains too low to add mention in the TAF, particularly given the increasing cloud cover. Clouds scatter out the remainder of the TAF period as SWLY winds increase Thursday morning around 8-10 kts. A few afternoon gusts of 15-20 kts cannot be ruled out.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... High low-level moisture and a passing disturbance may bring ceiling restrictions Friday, before morning fog or stratus could occur into this weekend.

CLIMATE

Daily Record High Temperatures for CAE and AGS:

Christmas Day Records: - Columbia: 79 F (1955) - Augusta : 81 F (2015)

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.