textproduct: Columbia

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minimal change to Key Message. Aviation discussion updated for 06z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Dry weather continues the remainder of this week with temperatures that warm to near normal by the mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Dry weather continues the remainder of this week with temperatures that warm to near normal by the mid to late week.

There is little change in the forecast for this week and into next weekend. In a word, the forecast is dry. Reinforcing high pressure is expected to build back into the region through the mid week as a general troughing pattern continues across the eastern CONUS. By the late week, a deep trough should push into the western US, amplifying a ridge over the central part of the country and pushing this ridge slowly eastward. Overall, this synoptic pattern favors the persistence of a drier airmass over the region where LREF probabilities for PWAT's less than 0.50" exceed 60-80% the remainder of the week and into next weekend. As the ridge slowly works toward the FA, afternoon high temperatures are expected to reach near normal by the mid to late week, continuing through the end of the forecast period. It is worth noting that another chilly night is expected tonight with strong radiational cooling conditions where lows back into the upper 30s to lower 40s will be possible.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Gusts up to 20 kts today, otherwise VFR.

A 30 to 35 kt LLJ will mix down shortly after sunrise allowing for NE gusts after 14Z. LLWS may be possible prior to that if winds go near calm at the TAF sites. Expect NE winds around 10 knots after 14Z with gusts up to 20 knots through 18z or so before subsiding through the late afternoon. After that, winds will continue to diminish through the evening with light winds overnight. Given the dry air in place, fog or stratus is unlikely.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The probability of widespread restrictions through the extended period is low.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.

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