textproduct: Columbia

SYNOPSIS

Weak surface high pressure lingers overnight with mostly dry weather expected. Aloft, a closed low may bring some slight rain chances for Tuesday across the northern forecast area. Dry and warming temps expected throughout the rest of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Upper low near the region will begin to move away

- Continued seasonably warm temperatures

Closed upper low currently situated just east of Charlotte while the associated surface low remains just off the coast of the Outer Banks. Satellite derived PWATs show a minimum across the forecast area with values around an inch with much higher values across eastern NC closer to the surface low and better onshore flow. The upper low and surface low are expected to slowly lift northeastward away from the forecast area today. Forecast soundings shows a robust mid level inversion which should limit convection along with generally low atmospheric moisture, despite possible shortwave energy possibly moving through the region.

The more extensive cloud cover is expected to remain north of the forecast area today which should allow for more sunshine and low level winds should turn more northwesterly providing a downsloping component. The combination of these factors should support another warm day with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Skies should become mostly clear overnight as the low moves further away from the region with rising 500mb heights. Strong radiational cooling is expected with lows falling into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Dry and warm conditions expected for the middle of the week.

The upper low will shift far enough north for Wednesday to swing notable dry advection across the entire forecast with no rain chances expected; PWAT's should continue to remain below 1.0" throughout the middle of the week. There is little in the way of a surface reflection or front as this upper low exits, so temps will remain fairly warm and winds will only shift from northerly to northwesterly. Steady height rises are then expected into Thursday along with broad weak surface ridging. With some weak downsloping flow and still high sun angle, temps will warm above average on Thursday into the upper 80's.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Key message(s):

- A return to ridging aloft and warming temps through Sunday before slightly cooler temps expected.

The upper low will continue to pull northward away from the area, with strong troughing remaining in place in the NE CONUS and broad ridge across the central US. This will position our area under weak high pressure, subtle height rises, and some northerly component flow aloft Friday and Saturday. Surface flow will generally remain weak but shift to gain a weak southerly component and with little synoptic flow, steady airmass moderation will push temps 5-10 degrees above average. As seen in the GEFS and ECE solutions, over the weekend, a strong surface high pressure will dive southeast into the NE CONUS and likely push through a backdoor front bringing cooler temps and some low end rain chances Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the period.

Some mid level clouds associated with upper low over the region expected to remain in place through mid morning then become more scattered in nature through the day as the upper low lifts away from the region. Light winds pick up to around 6 to 9 knots from the north by 15z then gradually shifts more northwesterly through the afternoon. Dry air mass in place should prevent fog/stratus concerns.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A dry air mass will be over the region this week and no significant aviation restrictions expected.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.