textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

High temps for the weekend have trended slightly cooler. Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Dry weather continues the remainder of this week with temperatures that warm to near normal by the mid week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Dry weather continues the remainder of this week with temperatures that warm to near normal by the mid week.

There remains little change in the forecast for this week and into next weekend. In a word, the forecast is dry. Reinforcing high pressure is expected to build back into the region through the mid week as a general troughing pattern continues across the eastern CONUS. The upper trough over the eastern seaboard is forecast to digging further south late in the week. By the late week, a deep trough should push into the western US, amplifying a ridge over the central part of the country and slowly pushing this ridge slowly eastward. Overall, this synoptic pattern favors the persistence of a drier airmass over the region where LREF probabilities for PWAT's less than 0.50" and dew points less than 45F exceed 60-80% the remainder of the week and into next weekend. As the ridge slowly works toward the FA, afternoon high temperatures are expected to reach near normal by the mid to late week. However, guidance suggests that the digging upper trough over the eastern seaboard could amplify in response to the aforementioned upstream features, resulting in slightly cooler temps for the weekend. Latest temperature spread has increased over the past couple of runs for Friday into the weekend, suggesting higher uncertainty. Nonetheless, the week still looks dry.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours.

Strong high pressure remains over the region through Tuesday with clear skies and continued northerly flow. Winds have diminished to 5 knots or less and should remain so overnight before picking back up to around 7 to 9 knots after 15z from the north to northeast through the day Tuesday. Cannot totally rule out a few gusts 15z-19z but they should be intermittent. Fog not expected to be a concern given the very dry air mass in place and some boundary layer wind.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant aviation concerns.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.