textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Thunderstorms expected each day through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Thunderstorms expected each day through the weekend.

A few lingering heavy showers will continue across the area through the evening, but the flooding or severe threat have diminished with generally stable low levels in place.

The overall pattern remains consistent over the next few days with shortwaves rounding the base of the trough helping to promote thunderstorm activity. Deep SW flow will keep atmospheric moisture elevated above normal. Given the high moisture content and potential for slow- moving or training convection, localized flash flooding will be possible. The overall severe threat should remain limited, although a few isolated severe storms producing damaging wind gusts will be possible. Thunderstorms will likely continue into the evening and possibly overnight as shortwave energy promotes continued convection.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions this evening, but restrictions associated with fog/stratus will be possible overnight into Thursday morning. Additional restrictions from afternoon convection will be possible Thursday afternoon/evening.

Convective coverage has decreased this evening with a few lingering showers remaining. Scattered debris cloudiness is in place with light winds generally out of the southeast. Overnight, mostly dry conditions are expected, but with generous low level moisture in place and pockets of higher rainfall amounts from this afternoon, guidance remains insistent on fog/stratus development tonight. There remains some question in coverage and exact timing, but overall, each terminal will have a chance at IFR to LIFR cig and/or vsby restrictions mainly between 07z-12z, with the highest confidence toward the Augusta terminals and AIK. MVFR ceilings may linger into late Thursday morning before scattered convection is once again expected, possibly starting as early as 15-17z, but most likely between 17z and the end of the TAF period. Winds late Thursday morning are expected to pick up to around 4-6 kts out of the south, though winds could become more variable as convection and outflow boundaries move across the FA during the afternoon and evening.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Restrictions possible from showers and thunderstorms each afternoon through this weekend.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.