textproduct: Columbia
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Well above normal temperatures still expected.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. Well above average temperatures, along with dry weather conditions, continue through the end of next week.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Well above average temperatures, along with dry weather conditions, continue through the end of next week.
Broad upper and surface ridging will continue to strengthen across the region throughout the week bringing well above average temps and dry conditions. Monday is about the only day with some forecast uncertainty, with some guidance showing a notable fog-stratus deck developing underneath the pivoting ridge. However, even the most aggressive guidance for this cloud cover still mix out by early afternoon, so above average temps likely either way. Beyond Monday, near record highs with multiple days above 90 F are likely by the end of the week. NAEFS and EC EFI are consistent across their respective ensemble suites with near record highs and extremely anomalous heights and temps aloft.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Brief vis restrictions early this morning at AGS and possibly OGB.
Shallow fog at AGS should dissipate by 13Z with VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites through the day. Expect light and variable or calm winds through about 15Z or 16Z before increasing from the south around 7-10 kts. A few gusts to around 18 kts are possible in the afternoon. Some higher clouds are anticipated to move over the area during the day with a few cumulus as well.
Low level moisture will increase tonight through SE flow. The chance of low stratus or patchy fog is higher than the previous few nights which were limited to the typical shallow fog at the fog-prone sites. A 10 to 20 kt low level jet and increased high-cloud cover favors stratus over fog but both will be possible, especially at AGS and OGB. Models are not bullish on any restrictions with the HRRR indicating only scattered clouds. Both low ceilings and fog are more highly favored closer to the coast. At this time, the chance of restrictions are too low to mention in the TAFs.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Dry conditions are expected to persist, with low chances for widespread restrictions in the extended.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None. GA...None.
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