textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updates to aviation section. Guidance continuing to favor an unsettled second half of the week and into next weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Below average temperatures continue to end the weekend with a warm up expected beginning Monday.

- 2) Rain chances increase during the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE #1: Below average temperatures continue to end the weekend with a warm up expected beginning Monday.

Surface high pressure ridging into the forecast area from the north with a cold air mass remaining over the area as 850mb temperatures are generally between 0 and -5C. Highs once again well below average today after a cold start. Air mass will moderate into next week as upper ridging strengthens over the central CONUS and shifts eastward. Both GEFS mean and EC ensemble mean indicate the strength of this ridge will be 2 standard deviations above normal. This will lead to a fairly rapid warming trend with highs in the 40s and low 50s today to nearing 70 by Tuesday and Wednesday. Increasing moisture for the second half of the week with a front near the area leads to blended guidance favoring temperatures near to slightly below average, notably cooler from previous runs with higher confidence that a cold front will push south of the area, although there still is large spread in the interquartile range especially for the end of the week and into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE #2: Rain chances increase during the second half of the week.

Moisture will increase by the middle of the week with LREF probabilities of PWATs greater than an inch around 50-70% Wednesday. Blended guidance continues to trend higher with pops as there remains increasing agreement in the synoptic pattern to bring a front into the area. Beyond Wednesday, there remains some uncertainty, mainly as it pertains to the timing of a series of disturbances that move into the Southeast. In general, however, global models and ensembles indicate an unsettled end of the week, although NAEFS and EC EFI are not indicating high moisture anomalies for the air mass.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions continue.

As high pressure continues across the region, winds will become more light and variable for the majority of the taf period. Airmass remains very dry, and this will keep clouds at a minimum with only thin cirrus passing through the region.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No anticipated aviation concerns through early this week. Restrictions possible moving into mid-week as another system pushes into the region and brings rain potential along with it.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.