textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered temps for today and Friday morning. Aviation discussion updated for 06z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Cooler conditions are expected into the weekend, with periods of light showers today. Temperatures gradually return to near normal next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Cooler conditions are expected into the weekend, with periods of light showers today. Temperatures gradually return to near normal next week.

The CAD regime should be at its strongest today across the entire CWA, with precip chances increasing early this morning as the low progresses overhead and eventually off the coast. PoPs are greater than 50% across areas north and east of I-26, including the central/northern Midlands and into the Pee Dee region, with less than 25-30% the closer we get to the CSRA. A few embedded showers could be heavy at times as the shortwave rounds the base of the upper low, but not expecting much of a severe threat as we should see mainly stratiform rain. Precip should diminish into the afternoon and evening; however, we are expected to remain overcast into Friday morning. Highs today will be in the low to upper 60s. Additionally, breezy winds will become a bit gustier at times as better flow develops aloft.

The wedge will weaken and steadily break down late this week, bringing us quite a pleasant first weekend of autumn. Models currently have the wedge retreating from our area early Friday, though guidance tends to handle the progression of such events poorly. As such, I would expect the start of Friday to remain on the cooler and cloudier side. After that, mostly clear skies and dry conditions prevail with highs rebounding each day and trending closer to normal. Max temps will reach the mid to upper 70s and low 80s, with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. CAA will help dip dewpoints into the 40s and 50s, making it feel beautiful for the next few days. Looking ahead, temps warm back into the mid 80s by the middle of next week as the pattern looks to evolve toward something more damp. However, details remain uncertain at this time.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

IFR/MVFR restrictions likely to continue throughout the 24 hour TAF period.

Wedge conditions will persist through much of today with MVFR/IFR CIGS likely continuing at all TAF sites. Persistent NNE-NE winds around 10 kt are expected through the valid TAF period with occasional gusts up to 15-20 kts. Showers may be ongoing around daybreak this morning, with the best chances at CAE/CUB and maybe OGB. Moderate rainfall will occasionally reduce visibilities through 18Z when the activity pushes east. Some slight improvement in CIGS is possible this evening as drier air starts to move in, but it is possible that conditions deteriorate again tonight with the wedge still locked in. However, better conditions and potentially VFR are expected by Friday morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Drier conditions are expected beginning Friday morning, but low ceilings may persist longer than model guidance suggests. VFR conditions should return by Friday or earlier.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.