textproduct: Columbia

SYNOPSIS

A chilly start to today is expected behind Monday's front. Cold and very dry weather is expected to continue as we close out the year. Temperatures then return to seasonal values during the late week period and into early next week as the next chance of rain is expected to move in Friday night into Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Very dry with much colder temperatures and low-end fire weather concerns today.

Cold and very dry air has moved into the region behind a cold front. Winds remain somewhat elevated early this morning, but still much weaker than Monday afternoon. Skies are mostly clear to clear, helping to promote radiational cooling conditions. Lows this morning should end up several degrees below average, generally in the mid to upper 20s, particularly if winds continue to weaken.

Upper trough and surface high pressure will dictate our weather for the remainder of today, which will include abundant sunshine, light winds and well below normal temperatures. Additionally, PWATs will be below 0.25" with surface dewpoints in the teens. This will create some mild fire weather concerns with min RH values around 20-25 percent, and SPC maintains an elevated fire danger risk again today. However, given ERC values generally below the 60th percentile, no additional headlines are needed at this time.

Light winds and clear skies promote better radiational cooling tonight with lows in the mid to upper 20s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Key message(s):

- A very dry airmass remains in place Wednesday with temperatures a bit below normal.

- Temperatures begin to moderate Thursday with dry weather continuing.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night: After a chilly start on Wednesday, surface winds become increasingly southwesterly through the day as weak high pressure remains along the Gulf coast. Upper troughing remains overhead though with northwesterly flow aloft aiding in keeping afternoon high temperatures toward the low to mid 50s. Northwesterly flow just above the surface and decent mixing will help keep a very dry airmass in place with minimum RH values likely falling to near critical values where wind gusts up to 20-25 mph will be possible during the afternoon as 25-30 kts of flow is depicted in forecast soundings around 850mb. This may bring increased fire weather concerns with dry fuels in place and thus increased caution will likely need to be exercised with any burning activity. By Wednesday night, low level moisture slightly rebounds and overnight lows are expected to fall into the low to mid 30s.

Thursday and Thursday Night: The base of the upper trough begins to swing toward the northeast through the day Thursday with a surface low in place across New England. A shortwave moving into the Southern Plains should allow upper flow to be a bit more westerly as low level flow remains out of the southwest, bringing PWAT's up to near 0.50" and seasonable high temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. There is indication in model guidance that a weak backdoor front may swing into the FA late in the day, likely stalling near the Pee Dee region overnight, though dry weather likely continues. Overnight lows are expected to be similar to Wednesday night, though increasing cloud cover may lend to slightly higher temperatures.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Key message(s):

- The next system brings back rain chances late Friday and into Saturday before drier conditions move in to end the weekend and start next week.

- Temperatures are expected to remain near average through the extended period.

General consensus remains in ensemble and deterministic guidance that the shortwave initially in Southern Plains will continue eastward, allowing surface cyclogenesis to occur Friday along the stalled frontal boundary stretched across the northern FA toward the Tennessee Valley. The coupled shortwave and surface low are expected to near the region through the day Friday before moving across the Carolina's late Friday night and into Saturday morning. EC ensemble and GEFS mean solutions depict PWAT's reaching 170-190% of normal early Saturday as the system moves through, bringing increased rain chances across the FA mainly late Friday night and into Saturday morning. This activity is expected to move out through the day Saturday, giving way to drier conditions to end the weekend and for the start of the next work week as weak high pressure settles in.

In terms of temperatures, near average temperatures are expected through the period, though Saturday could trend a bit cooler depending on when rain chances move out the region.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions through the TAF period.

Some lingering high clouds this morning, but generally SKC expected through the rest of the period. Sfc winds generally NWLY around 5-8 kts through Tuesday afternoon. Light and variable winds return Tuesday night. Dry air at the surface will generally preclude any threat for fog.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant aviation restrictions expected until late this week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.