textproduct: Columbia

SYNOPSIS

A strong cold front moving through the region is expected to bring breezy winds today and much colder temperatures tonight. Cold and very dry weather is expected to close out the year. Temperatures return to seasonal values during the late week period, with the next chance of rain arriving Friday night into Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Lake Wind Advisory due to breezy winds this afternoon. - Much colder temperatures tonight.

The rest of today: The much talked about cold front is currently moving through the forecast area, which is noted by a shift to more westerly winds and rapidly dropping dew points. For example, the 10 am dew point at Newberry was 52, and it has dropped to 39 by 11:30 am. A round of showers is now pushing out of the eastern portions of the forecast area. A few more radar returns are showing up in the Midlands, but unsure if this is hitting the ground. If it does, it is likely to be short lived and light. As the front continues to push eastward, expect clearing skies and breezy winds, gusting to 30 mph or greater at times. Despite the showers today, the winds and dropping RH values this afternoon lead to elevated fire weather conditions. In addition, strong cold air advection pushes into the region, allowing temps to begin to drop quickly, especially as we head into the evening.

Tonight: Expect temperatures and dew points to continue dropping overnight as the cold air advection continues. The breezy winds are expected to subside after dark, but remain elevated through the night. Due to the strong cold air advection, overnight lows are expected to be well below average, generally in the mid to upper 20s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Cold and very dry weather is expected to close out the year.

Upper trough will be firmly in place during the short term, promoting below normal temperatures. At the surface, winds will be out of the northwest on Tuesday ahead of high pressure building in from the west. This will result in well below normal temperatures with forecast highs in the mid-40s to near 50 degrees along with very low dewpoints. Winds will be lighter than today but will be high enough that the SPC maintains an elevated fire danger risk on Tuesday as RH values fall below 30 percent in most locations in the afternoon. Light winds and clear skies promote radiational cooling Tuesday night with lows in the mid to upper 20s. Wednesday should be warmer than Tuesday as surface winds shift to the southwest. Having said that, another cool and very dry day is expected despite plenty of sunshine with forecast highs in the lower to mid 50s and lows in the lower to mid 30s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Key message(s):

- Temperatures return to near seasonal values for the extended.

- The next storm system moves in Friday night into Saturday with rain likely.

The upper trough over the Eastern CONUS at the start of the long term lifts north of the region on Thursday with brief zonal flow on Friday, before a shortwave associated with the next storm system moves through on Saturday, followed by upper ridging. Temperatures are slated to return to seasonal values on Thursday and remain there through the long term, barring some fluctuations associated with the weekend storm system. Confidence is increasing regarding the timing of the next weather maker, which should develop in the southern Great Plains on Thursday and bring a period of rain to the CWA Friday night into Saturday. Drier conditions are favored for Sunday and Monday as the aforementioned upper ridge approaches.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions through the TAF period, with breezy westerly winds this afternoon.

Frontal boundary is passing through the forecast area and winds are transitioning to more westerly. Expected winds to gust to 25-30 kts this afternoon before diminishing after about 22z-23z. Winds remain generally westerly and elevated overnight, but eventually drop to around 5-8 kts. Cloud cover is expected to begin scattering out and become clear by around 00z or so. With the elevated winds and chilly temps overnight, no fog is expected to develop.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant aviation restrictions expected until late this week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for SCZ016-018- 020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137. GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for GAZ040- 063>065-077.