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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Forecast highs approaching daily records Wednesday through Friday. Aviation discussion updated for 06z TAFs.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. Dry, warm weather favored through the week.
- 2. Strong cold front will usher in a much cooler air mass for the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Key Message 1: Dry, warm weather favored through the week.
Upper ridging will strengthen over the next several days over the southeastern US. Surface high pressure over the area with high probability of PWATs remaining below an inch and a quarter through much of the week will lead to dry weather. Warming trend will continue through mid-week and by Wednesday, ensemble means indicate the center of the ridge will be near the area with 500mb heights near 2 standard deviations above normal. NAEFS mean indicates that 850mb temperatures will exceed the 99th percentile. This will lead to near record highs Wednesday through Friday with very low spread in temperature guidance among blended guidance members leading to a high confidence temperature forecast with a front approaching by the end of the week.
Key Message 2: Strong cold front will usher in a much cooler air mass for the weekend.
Strong agreement among ensemble members in the passage of a front through the forecast area Friday night into Saturday. While blended guidance generally favors keeping the area dry, with only a marginal increase in moisture ahead of the front, as the location of the ridge will likely prevent a significant surge of moisture from the Gulf reaching the area. Blended guidance favors a substantially cooler air mass moving in for the weekend with temperatures potentially 20 degrees cooler.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.
Skies have cleared out over the terminals. Expect mainly clear skies through TAF period as drier air continues to filter into the region. Southwest winds around 5 kts to start the period before switching to northwest and increasing to near 10 kts. A few gusts of 15-20 kts are possible in the afternoon. Winds then become light and variable late in the period.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant aviation concerns.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None. GA...None.
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