textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Guidance showing increasing potential for showers with the cold front this weekend. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Near-record warmth through Friday.

- 2. A strong cold front is forecast to push through the region Friday night, ushering in cooler weather this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Near-record warmth through Friday.

Anomalously hot temperatures continue across the forecast area today and tomorrow beneath an anomalously strong ridge and ahead of a strong cold front progged to push through Friday night. We are already sitting in the upper 80s across the area, likely to break record highs again this afternoon. This is probably going to happen again on Friday given compressional heating ahead of the approaching front, though guidance is slightly cooler than today/Wednesday. Generally highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected.

Key Message 2: A strong cold front is forecast to push through the region Friday night, ushering in cooler weather this weekend.

The forecast remains on track, with some notable wrenches that are increasingly appearing in guidance. Guidance has slowed the front down slightly on Friday night over the last couple of days; even still, it is forecast to pass through the area between 10p Friday and 3a Saturday. Cooler air is forecast to rush into the area behind it, with strong gusty winds expected as well. The trough forcing all of this has trended much sharper over the last several days, with guidance now showing some form of the trough cutting off to our east by Saturday night or Sunday. It is unlikely, but there is still a small cluster of ensemble guidance that is trying to cut the upper low off closer to us, which would impact our weather more than expected. The passing blow of light showers expected early Saturday morning would linger longer in this scenario and have some downstream impacts with temps. This is an unlikely scenario but does have some support in the deterministic guidance as well. Regardless, some showers are likely early on Saturday as the front clears, moisture lags a bit behind, and intense synoptic lift allows for some rain to develop. Winds are forecast to be quite breezy on Saturday. BUFKIT time/height plots suggest that wind gusts of 30-40 mph are possible during the day as a cool and dry airmass rapidly advects into the area. We will need a Lake Wind Advisory and honestly are bordering on Wind Advisory criteria. If the coastal low develops a bit earlier and closer to us than is currently expected, we definitely will need to watch for stronger gusts. Sunday will be quite chilly with temps in the low 60s and overnight lows in the 40s. From there, a modest warm up closer to normal is expected into next week. Given presence of northeasterly flow and strong high pressure, cool temps and dry air is expected deep into next week.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the 24hr forecast period.

Sunny skies under high pressure today with only light southwesterly flow around 5 knots. Winds should subside with sunset to light and variable or calm overnight. Some guidance (HRRR with SREF support) is suggesting some stratus/fog developing along the Coastal Plain and possibly impacting OGB and AGS. Confidence remains limited so left out of the forecast but if trends improve may need to include a TEMPO group for OGB 10-13z time frame. AGS could also see the intermittent IFR vsbys similar to last night. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions through the period. A strong cold front will approach the region on Friday and an increased pressure gradient with result in southwesterly winds increasing to around 10 knots after 15z with some higher gusts likely by afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A front will move across the area Friday night into Saturday. Although precipitation is expected to be limited, breezy W/SW winds are expected Friday evening shifting to a northerly direction on Saturday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.