textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Confidence has increased in near to below critical RH values this afternoon and for Friday. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Elevated fire weather conditions will persist.

- 2. Mostly dry conditions are expected with temperatures warming above normal this weekend and early next week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Elevated fire weather conditions will persist.

In the wake of the cold front that moved through earlier this morning, dewpoints have steadily fallen into the lower 40s as dry northwesterly flow overspreads the region. This will continue for most of the day on Friday as well with current relative humidity values dipping close to critical values (25-30%). Winds right now have occasionally gusted near 20 mph as the pressure gradient tightened behind the front and peak daytime heating/mixing has occurred. Fortunately, winds will being to diminish shortly after sunset and shouldn't be as high for the day on Friday or through the weekend. However, the combination of near to below critical RH values, dry fine fuels from lack of rainfall, ongoing drought conditions, and gusty winds, will bring elevated fire weather conditions/concerns into the weekend. Luckily, winds are expected to remain below thresholds for any fire weather products.

Key Message 2: Mostly dry conditions are expected with temperatures warming above normal this weekend and early next week.

Strong upper ridging will gradually build into the region this weekend, promoting a warming and predominantly dry pattern across the FA. The ridge will likely aid in strengthening a Bermuda High with solid agreement that a warming trend ensues with rising upper-level heights along the eastern seaboard. Forecast high temperatures will continue trending above normal, with many locations gradually reaching into the lower 90s this weekend. This will continue through early next week as a deep trough digging into the Central US further amplifies the ridge overhead. Fortunately, moisture levels shouldn't be high enough to support max heat indices much higher than air temps. In both the recent EC Ensemble and GEFS solutions, as well as their individual members, PWAT's should gradually raise above 1" Sunday and into next week as persistent southerly low-level moisture convection ensues, bringing seasonable instability to the region. This may aid in bringing a bit of a summer-like pattern with diurnal rain chances possible Sunday into next week. There is a bit more uncertainty heading into the mid week in terms of the progression of the deep trough over the Plains and the ridge overhead.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR Conditions Continue....

Winds this afternoon are generally out of the West-Northwest and Northwest with periodic gusts in the 15-20 knot range. Scattered cumulus have developed across the eastern half of the CWA but will not result in restrictions. VFR conditions are likely to continue through the TAF period with clear skies and light and variable winds tonight, continuing into the day on Friday as high pressure moves over the FA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture increases late this weekend and early next week which may lead to early morning fog or stratus.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.