textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation updated for 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. A backdoor front will usher in drier and slightly cooler air through the middle to end of this week.

- 2. Increasing moisture and rain chances by the end of the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: A backdoor front will usher in drier and slightly cooler air through the middle to end of this week.

Confidence remains high in the pattern over the next several days. Extreme 500 hPa ridge remains settled over the southeastern US, with NAEFS and LREF 500 hPa heights at the 100th percentile for this time of year. Despite this, our weather looks quite pleasant through Friday owing to a backdoor front that moved through last night. Highs look closer to normal- in the upper 80s and lower 90s - over the next few days but the humidity will be the major story. Below normal PWs, plentiful sunshine, and subsidence aloft will result in fairly robust mixing of the dry airmass across the central Carolinas. Afternoon dewpoints Wed/Thur are expected to fall into the 50s, and this dry airmass will foster lows each morning in the 60s! It will be a brief reprieve but a well deserved one nonetheless.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Increasing moisture and rain chances by the end of the weekend into early next week.

The persistent upper-level ridge begins to break down by the weekend as a cold front approaches the forecast area from north Saturday. A weak inverted upper trough is forecast to retrograde beneath the upper ridge and into the northern Gulf by the weekend. The combination of these two things will lead to an increase in southerly/southwesterly flow, with LREF members all showing 75th-85th percentile PWs arriving back in the area by Sunday and Monday. The inverted trough is likely to slowly lift northeastward early next week along with a southeastward moving cold front leading to unsettled weather likely to return as a result.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

MVFR cigs to linger into early this afternoon across parts of the area.

Backdoor front has pushed through the region, bringing a broad stratus deck with cigs dipping to MVFR for most of the morning. The stratus will steadily burn off throughout the afternoon before lifting to VFR at all sites. Winds will remain generally out of the east, with some gusts 12-15 knots expected. Light winds linger overnight along with clearing skies. Drier air should help mitigate any fog or stratus potential moving into Wednesday morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Rain and restrictions unlikely for much of the week with increasing chances for showers and storms this weekend.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.