textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minor updates to Key Message 1. Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. After a cold front moves through this evening, a more typical summer-like pattern returns this weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: After a cold front moves through this evening, a more typical summer-like pattern returns this weekend into next week.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed as expected along a cold frontal boundary this evening. A few stronger wind gusts may occur, but overall impacts from this activity should be minimal. Most CAM solutions have this activity moving from northwest to southeast and dissipating over the next few hours, and especially by midnight as the front moves south of the forecast area. Slightly drier air moves in behind the front into Saturday with mostly dry conditions expected. Low level moisture is expected to recover Sunday as a weak upper disturbance moves through, bringing diurnal rain chances back. Temperatures this weekend are expected to remain near normal in the upper 80s to low 90s.

There is decent agreement amongst global models that multiple weak disturbances are progged to move through mainly zonal flow into the mid week, bringing diurnal shower/storm chances each day and temperatures in the low to mid 90s. A robust upper ridge is expected to build across the Four Corners region late this week, bringing a troughing pattern toward eastern CONUS where a more amplified system may be able to sneak into the FA, but there remains considerable spread on timing.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

A front currently pushing through the southeast is beginning to stall out over our area. A few isolated popup showers and thunderstorms have developed in some locations this afternoon. Any activity should dissipate after sunset and is not expected to impact the terminals. Winds will gradually diminish this evening, becoming light and variable overnight. Drier low-level air filtering into the region should limit fog development, supporting continued VFR conditions.

On Saturday, northerly to northeasterly winds will increase to around 5-7 kt by mid-morning. Dry conditions are expected to persist, with only passing thin cirrus.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnally driven convection to return Sunday, although coverage will be isolated with higher coverage expected next week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.