textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Wind Advisory issued from 8 am this morning to 10 pm this evening. Aviation updated for 12z TAF.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Windy conditions today with gusts around 40 mph possible.

- 2) Subfreezing temperatures Monday and Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE #1: Windy conditions today with gusts around 40 mph possible.

Surface low pressure will rapidly deepen as it moves offshore and lifts northeast today. The associated cold front will cross the forecast area this morning clearing out the remaining few showers. Winds will pick up behind the front with upstream sites already showing gusts from 15 to 25 mph. As the surface low undergoes rapid cyclogenisis the pressure gradient strengthens through the day with deep mixing shown in forecast soundings. Median HREF wind gusts range from 30 to 35 mph from around noon through the afternoon, however gusts may exceed 40 mph at times. Based on radar estimates, a swath of 1 to 3 inches of rainfall has fallen in the past 24 hours from Burke County eastward to Orangeburg County. This raises concern for potential issues with uprooted trees in saturated soils even if wind gusts don't quite reach their full potential. Winds will weaken through the evening but will likely remain elevated on area lakes into the night.

KEY MESSAGE #2: Subfreezing temperatures Monday and Tuesday morning.

High confidence in below freezing temperatures on Tuesday morning with lows in the low 20s to mid 20s expected. With the recent warmup, any plants that have begun to bloom and are cold sensitive will likely need to be protected. Less certainty in a hard freeze for Monday morning as winds are expected to stay up which typically keeps temps a little warmer than model guidance. Lows on Monday morning are more likely to be around 30 degrees or in the upper 20s.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Mix of VFR-LIFR restrictions before the cold front clears things out this morning.

Cold front moving across the area as of 12z with a few lingering light showers possible through 13z at all the TAF sites. CAE- CUB-OGB will continue to deal with IFR-LIFR cigs before this front moves through between 13-15z and scours moisture out; AGS- DNL should be in the clear for any remaining restrictions after 12z. Strong winds will then be the main story with northwest winds strengthening to over 20 knots with gusts over 30 knots for the afternoon and evening. Winds slightly decrease overnight into Monday, but sustained 15 knots with gusts over 20 knots still expected into Monday morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Drier air continues to move into the region on Monday with gusty northwest winds of 25 kts possible. No notable periods of restrictions then expected through mid-week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for SCZ016-018- 020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137. GA...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for GAZ040-063>065- 077.