textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated discussion of temperatures and heat index values for Monday. Aviation discussion updated for the 06z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Increased threat of impactful heat this week and into the Independence Day weekend.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Increased threat of impactful heat this week and into the Independence Day weekend.

After a muggy overnight period, especially in the CSRA, temperatures are expected to rise into the 90s across the forecast area on Monday. A Heat Advisory was considered for the counties along the Savannah River, but ultimately one was not issued due to the expected development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, which would prevent criteria from being reached. Having said that, forecast heat index values will be between 100 and 105 degrees in the CSRA, including the City of Augusta, meaning caution should be used during peak heating if you have any extended outdoor plans.

Slightly drier air is expected to filter into the region during the middle of the week, resulting in somewhat lower heat index values, although temperatures will still remain above normal. By late week and into the holiday weekend, an upper-level ridge will be anchored over the eastern CONUS while strengthening further, with 850-mb temperatures approaching or exceeding 20C. This pattern will support a continued warming trend, with afternoon highs steadily climbing and several locations potentially reaching or exceeding 100 degrees from Thursday through Sunday. Heat indices could soar close to or above 105 degrees. If trends continue, heat products may be needed several days in a row. Be sure to make heat safety preparations now and have a plan to monitor children, the elderly, pets, and anyone without adequate indoor cooling.

The NHC maintains a 20% chance for cyclone formation over the next 7 days off the SC coast. However, guidance has backed off on this quite a bit with development fairly low.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions likely Monday with an outside chance for showers-storms.

Drier air is pushing towards the region with a weak back door front, but some areas of MIFG likely this morning with minimal restrictions however. Winds will then shift out of the north- northeast into late morning for Columbia and OGB, remaining northwesterly at AGS- DNL; winds will be notable lighter today despite this front, with gusts only to around 10 knots. Some thunderstorms are possible at AGS-DNL is afternoon as the front will not clear the area, included a prob30 covering this potential for now at those terminals.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Afternoon convection is less likely for the remainder of the week as ridging builds overhead. Brief early morning restrictions also possible this week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.