textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minimal change to Key Messages. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAF.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Drier conditions for the end of the week before rain chances ramp back up this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

- 1. Drier conditions for the end of the week before rain chances ramp back up this weekend into early next week.

PWATs are already falling to under 1.50" across the FA with the front shifting into the Coastal Plain and NW to NNW flow moving in. This push of drier air will continue to work in tomorrow and Friday as CAMs and global models show PWAT's potentially falling under 1" at times. Temperatures are progged to remain near normal each afternoon, but with this drier air, surface dewpoints are expected to fall into the upper 50s to low 60s, bringing much needed relief from the hot/humid conditions seen much of the past 3-4 weeks. Slightly better agreement is coming into LREF cluster analysis in the evolution of the synoptic pattern into early next week. The robust upper ridge near the climatological 90th percentile should continue retrograding toward the Four Corners region, allowing troughing to slide back into the Eastern US. There is more consensus as well that a sharp shortwave should dive out of the Midwest early this weekend, shifting into the Mid South by Sunday into Monday. Greater discrepancies exist in deterministic global models Sunday through Tuesday in the evolution of this shortwave as the ECMWF is more aggressive in cutting this off, while the GFS favors it continuing to lift through the Mid-Atlantic. Either way, PWATs across ensembles are shown reaching near 120-125% in this time period and with generous forcing in the troughing pattern, increased rain chances look likely at least late this weekend into the early week.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours.

Winds will be mostly variable around 5 knots through the afternoon. If there is a general direction, it would be northerly. Winds diminish below 5 knots by sunset and will remain light through Thursday. Clouds consist of a few mid-level cumulus through the day, then mostly clear overnight and into Thursday. With the dry air in place, fog is not expected, nor is any rain.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Rain and restrictions become increasingly likely this weekend.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.