textproduct: Columbia

SYNOPSIS

Areas of dense fog will likely persist into this morning hours, potentially dense at times. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions are expected today. The next round of rain moves in Sunday night and through Monday. Dry conditions are then anticipated for the mid-week period while temperatures remain below normal. The next chance of rain arrives Thursday night into Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Widespread fog with at least patchy dense fog this morning. - Continued cool but generally dry today

Water vapor imagery shows the initial shortwave that brought rain to the region Saturday has shifted to our east with generally zonal flow aloft and drier air has moved in at mid levels. PWATs have fallen significantly across the region with values less than a half inch across the forecast area. The combination earlier rainfall and clearing skies and mid level dry air with light to calm winds has resulted in widespread fog with many location reporting dense fog and a dense fog advisory is in effect until 9am.

An upper trough digging into the upper Midwest and Plains states will continue to move into the Ohio Valley by this evening. Generally expecting a dry forecast today with the moisture axis remaining to our south with plenty of cloud cover due to stratus clouds and some increasing mid-high clouds. Temperatures will continue to be below normal today with highs ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s, although if more sunshine is observed temps could be a touch warmer.

As the upper trough moves into the region late Sunday night, moisture will increase across the forecast area and isentropic lift will also increase leading to chances of rain across after 06z spreading over the area. PWATs still remain below an inch so moisture will still be somewhat limited and should keep rainfall totals light. Low temperatures tonight expected to drop into the upper 30s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Chance of rain on Monday, especially in the morning.

- Drier and Continued Cool on Tuesday.

Monday and Monday Night: A shortwave will be passing through the FA at the start of the day, with a second upper disturbance passing mainly to the north in the evening. While temperatures at daybreak will be in the mid-30s across the northern FA, frozen precipitation does not appear likely and this should be a rain event for the entire CWA. The highest rain chances will be during the morning hours with the first upper disturbance, followed by a low end (less than 20 percent) chance for a passing shower or two in the evening across the northern Midlands as the second feature shortwave passes through. The clouds and rain will once again limit warming during the day with forecast highs ranging from the mid-40s to lower 50s. A drier air mass filters in at night allowing temperatures to drop quickly towards daybreak with widespread subfreezing temperatures expected, especially across the northern Midlands where lower 20s are forecast.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night: High pressure will be overhead during the morning hours promoting cold and dry weather under mainly sunny skies. Despite the sunshine, temperatures will struggle to warm much courtesy of strong CAA with forecast highs in the mid to upper 40s. Winds shift to the southwest as the anticyclone sinks south towards Florida so while another night of subfreezing temperatures is expected, values will be warmer than the previous night for most with forecast lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Key message(s):

- Dry and warmer Wednesday and Thursday.

- The next cold front moves through on Friday.

An upper trough will dominate the weather across the Central and Eastern CONUS during the mid to late week period. At the surface, high pressure to the south will keep the FA dry on Wednesday and Thursday and persistent southwesterly flow should allow temperatures to moderate, albeit still below seasonal values. A cold front is expected to approach Thursday night bringing a chance of rain that will linger into at least the first half of Friday. Another cold, dry air mass follows the frontal passage for next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Widespread fog with LIFR restrictions expected through mid morning.

Widespread fog, dense in many locations already in place to start the forecast and do not see much reason it will not continue with favorable conditions to support it through sunrise. Some clearing near AGS/DNL/OGB may allow temporary improved conditions through 08z but expect all terminals to have LIFR conditions through sunrise in fog/stratus. Improvement should begin to occur between 14z-16z with a return to MVFR cigs by 18z all terminals. Winds will generally be light and variable with a prevailing easterly direction after 15z. Some improvement to VFR possible after 21z but confidence is low.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Lingering low level moisture may result in restrictions into Monday with drier air expected Tuesday through the end of the period.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ016-018- 020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137. GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ040- 063>065-077.