textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Dry conditions to start the week with rain chances returning for mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Dry conditions to start the week with rain chances returning for mid to late week.

The last signs of light rain showers are moving out of the area as an upper shortwave continues to lift northward early this morning. Once these move out of the area, dry, but mostly cloudy conditions are expected to persist through the day.

A deep trough over the Four Corners region this morning is expected to translate eastward to the central CONUS for the first part of the week, causing an upper ridge to build over our area. At the surface, high pressure slowly shifts northward, causing surface winds to shift more easterly. As a result, warmer than normal temps and increasing moisture can be expected through midweek. As the upper trough moves into the central CONUS, a surface low and associated front are expected to accompany it. The trough and surface front are then forecast to move east, then shift northeastward as they approach the forecast area. Latest guidance continues to indicate a dragging surface front should move toward and through the forecast area mid to late week, bringing increased rain chances. However, confidence continues to increase that the better forcing mechanisms stay to our north as the system moves through. Therefore, the chances for any rain or thunderstorms have decreased overall from the previous model runs. That said, there remains chances for scattered activity. The severe threat also remains low with this system. The area is anticipated to dry back out as high pressure is forecast to move back into the area.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF forecast period.

High level clouds are generally scouring out this morning but SCT-BKN low and mid level cloudiness prevails. Some clearing across eastern GA and the SC upstate has resulted in spotty MVFR CIGS, which continue to be briefly possible at AGS/DNL/AIK for another couple of hours. Clearing should continue through this morning with partly to mostly sunny conditions for a time this afternoon. Otherwise, northeast winds continue today around 5 to 7 kts, increasing a bit this afternoon to around 10-12 kts with some higher gusts from a more easterly direction. Another round of SCT-BKN stratus is expected to return tonight as winds relax a bit and speeds decrease to less than 6 kts. Some guidance is hinting at the potential for some stratus development and CIG restrictions late in the forecast period, but confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing chances for rain mid-week may lead to some lower CIGS or VSBY restrictions, but current confidence is low.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.