textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Coolest overnight lows in some time possible this morning. Aviation discussion updated for 06z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Much cooler and drier air moves in tonight, with near record morning lows possible.

- 2. Temperatures remain a bit below normal today before a warming trend is seen into this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Much cooler and drier air moves in tonight, with near record morning lows possible.

Drier air continues to filter in behind yesterday's front with surface dew points down into the 50s across the region, though dew points down into the mid to upper 40s are moving into central NC. Mostly clear skies are already seen across the CWA and mesoanalysis reveals another push of weak 925-850mb CAA is moving through as well. Overall, this set up is expected to yield cool overnight temperatures that bottom out in the low to mid 50s, though sheltered spots in the upper 40s seems possible. These temperatures are well below normal and could fall within 2-5 degrees of record lows with The record low on June 3rd for CAE being 49F and 51F for AGS. The latest forecast is 53F at CAE and 52F at AGS. The main limiting in seeing temperatures much lower than currently forecast is the delayed nature of sub 50 dew points pushing into the area.

Key Message 2: Temperatures remain a bit below normal today before a warming trend is seen into this weekend.

Temperatures today are expected to remain a bit cooler than normal, in the upper 70s to low 80s, before very little change is seen in the outlook for the late week and into this weekend. A strong and broad upper ridge near NAEFS 90th percentile will continue to shift over the eastern US starting Thursday, remaining in place through at least the start of this weekend. This ridge and warming 850mb temperatures should bring warmer temperatures that approach the upper 80s to low 90s each day through Sunday, possibly into the start of next week. There is lower confidence in temperatures early next week however as there is some indication in ensemble and global guidance that the upper ridge may begin breaking down some with possible precipitation chances entering again.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR Conditions Expected Through the TAF Period...

Drier air continues to filter into the area early this morning which will limit restrictions with VFR conditions expected under clear skies. There remains a low chance that fog prone OGB/AGS could have very brief visibility restrictions near sunrise, but the probability of this is too low to include in TAF. Winds increase out of the northeast once again today, likely not quite as strong as yesterday with gusts generally in the teens, with winds tapering off after sunset.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Drier air continues to hang on through the weekend with mainly VFR conditions expected.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.