textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Near normal temperatures into the weekend with dry conditions. Diurnal rain chances return early next week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Near normal temperatures into the weekend with dry conditions. Diurnal rain chances return early next week.

Surface high pressure and deep ridging will dominate the pattern over the weekend and into next week. Following a relatively dry Saturday with well below average PWAT's and surface dew points, moisture returns with southwesterly flow across the area along with steadily building heights on Sunday; 90th percentile heights and temps expected throughout much of the period, so temps up around 90 F are likely each day. Rain chances hold off until Monday when we reach sufficient low level moisture for diurnally driven showers and storms. Diurnal scattered showers and storms are then expected most days next week with a fairly typically summer pattern in place. PWAT's should climb above 1.75" but with most of the deepest moisture remaining to the west, QPF totals across all guidance is generally only 0.25-0.75" with some isolated areas higher.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions will continue at TAF sites.

Cirrus will continue overhead this afternoon with SCT fair- weather cumulus gradually dissipating after sunset. Low- level moisture will begin to increase overnight into Sunday, but confidence in fog development remains low, similar to what we have seen the past few nights.

Conditions Sunday will remain largely unchanged, with SCT cirrus continuing. Winds will become light overnight before picking back up to 5-8 kts from the south/southwest by late morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture increases early next week leading to scattered, mainly diurnal, showers and thunderstorms.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.