textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A few light showers are possible today in the CSRA. Aviation updated for 18z issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Outside of a few showers today, rain chances remain low through midweek before a potentially more active pattern for late week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Outside of a few showers today, rain chances remain low through midweek before a potentially more active pattern for late week.

Some weak southwesterly isentropic lift associated with a subtle shortwave moving across the gulf coast is producing a few light showers this afternoon, overrunning out persistent surface ridge. This, very, weak damming setup with relatively dry air at the surface and continuing northeasterly surface flow will keep cloudy skies and temps cooler today with highs only into the upper 60's and low 70's. We then return to our typical high pressure dominating pattern with warming temps, partly cloudy skies, and breezy winds through Wednesday. A strong front will approach the area Thursday as an sharp trough ejects out of the central US and occludes before being picked up within the northern stream jet. A corresponding surface low will develop and drag a front through the area, with some notable moisture return ahead of it. Rain chances however have steadily decreased as this low is looking more likely to lift well north into the Great Lakes, limiting the frontal and synoptic dynamic forcing in our area. Some showers are still likely, but widespread heavy rain and any severe thunderstorm threat has lessened across SC and eastern GA.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF forecast period.

A few light scattered showers are moving through the CSRA and into Aiken County. Inserted PROB30 through 22Z for AGS and DNL with more isolated sprinkles or light rain possible behind the initial wave. A TEMPO group was added to AIK through 22Z. Uncertain if the light showers will persist into other TAF sites, but will monitor.

Widespread cirrus remains across the region. Clouds may lower due to moistening and rain especially in the CSRA, but VFR conditions expected to remain. Activity through the day should have little impact in the Midlands, so those TAF locations should remain VFR and dry.

Winds remain generally around 6-10 knots with occasional gusts near 20 knots. With the winds and clouds, fog will not be an issue tonight. Gusts diminish this evening, with sustained winds back down to around 5 knots. Winds should increase again during the day tomorrow around 6-10 knots with occasional gusts up to 15 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low level moisture increases early next week and may lead to ceiling restrictions on Tuesday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.