textproduct: Columbia

SYNOPSIS

Periods of light right remain possible overnight in the eastern Midlands with drizzle possible elsewhere. Unsettled weather then continues into the weekend and potentially into early next week. Dry conditions are then anticipated for the mid to late week period while temperatures remain below normal.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY MORNING/

Key message(s):

- Low clouds, light rain/drizzle, and possible patchy fog remain overnight and into Saturday morning.

Light rain continues to move across the southeastern Midlands this evening along a moisture gradient with PWAT's near 1" across the central Midlands, increasing up to 1.3-1.4" toward the eastern Midlands and Coastal Plain. The better isentropic lift has shifted closer to the coast and thus this shift in the band of rain. Overnight tonight, periods of light rain are expected to continue mainly in the far southeastern Midlands as solid moisture transport continues with the main upper trough remaining off to the west. Elsewhere, low stratus should remain locked in place overnight with an abundance of low level moisture that could bring some drizzle. Patchy fog cannot be ruled out as well. Temperatures should not budge too much overnight with copious cloud cover, only falling into the mid to upper 40s. A couple northern spots could be in the upper 30s to low 40s.

SHORT TERM /7 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Widespread showers Saturday, especially south of I-20 but trending drier Sunday. - Below average temperatures continue.

By Saturday morning, a relatively strong moisture gradient will be in place across the area with HREF mean PWATs near a half an inch in the NW portion of the forecast area and closer to an inch in the southeastern area. Forecast soundings show sufficient moisture in the upper and low levels to continue to support widespread clouds, although HiRes guidance is indicating lower clouds scouring out in the western portion of the forecast area through the day. While moisture may not be as high as Friday, a more well defined shortwave will approach from the west which will likely lead to widespread rain showers south of I-20, with rain chances decreasing north. Rain is expected to be generally light with blended guidance indicating around 50 percent probability of total rainfall less than a quarter inch in the southeasternmost portion of the area (where the most rain will fall in the area). Another cool day expected Saturday with highs a couple degrees warmer than Friday, generally in the low 50s. Model consensus continues to trend towards drier air pushing in Saturday night into Sunday which will lead to decreasing clouds and temperatures expected to drop into the 30s.

LREF mean PWATs continue to trend lower for Sunday as latest runs indicate around 60-80 percent probability of PWATs less than a half inch. A gradual warming trend continues to be indicated by blended guidance with temperatures a couple degrees warmer than Saturday, although highs still expected to remain below seasonal average with clouds lingering into Sunday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Key message(s):

- Upper trough moves through Monday with additional rain chances. - Drier and colder air mass settles over the region through midweek.

Uncertainty next week in regards to the timing of a strong upper trough that will pass through Monday at some time Monday. While moisture continues to be limited, blended guidance favors a slight chance of showers with strong forcing. Higher confidence that behind this trough, a colder air mass settles over the forecast area with GEFS and EC ensemble means indicated 500mb heights around one standard deviation below normal. Blended guidance continues to show high confidence in temperatures well below normal early next week with some moderation towards the end of the long term period, although still below average. Dry weather and below average PWATs expected to continue beyond Monday.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

LIFR and IFR conditions are expected through the majority of the period.

Persistent moisture continues to funnel into the area from the southwest. Consistent showers are expected to impact AGS, DNL, and especially OGB throughout the evening with IFR-LIFR cigs and some reduced vsby; CAE and CUB should only deal with some light drizzle, but LIFR cigs are likely to develop from 00z onward along with modest vsby impacts. This will continue into Saturday morning, with IFR-LIFR cigs and vsby through at least 13-14z for all TAF sites. Slow improvement is likely by the late morning for all TAF sites with the exception of OGB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Rain chances diminish Sunday and into the early week, but ceiling restrictions may remain in place at least part of Sunday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.