textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Much below average temperatures tonight and 00z Aviation Update.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Chilly temperatures tonight.

- 2) Temperatures near to below average through the weekend followed by a significant warmup next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE #1: Chilly temperatures tonight.

High pressure begins to build over the region tonight as an upper trough and surface front continue to move away from the area. Satellite imagery is showing some breaks in the clouds, but more high clouds moving toward the area. As such temperatures are expected to drop to well below average tonight. The lows will be dependent somewhat on how much cloud cover hangs around overnight. Either way, chilly temps are expected.

KEY MESSAGE #2: Temperatures near to below average through the weekend followed by a significant warmup next week.

Expect temperatures to be near to below average through the weekend. Upper ridging late this weekend will begin to build over the central US with blended guidance favoring above well normal temperatures next week; temps 10-15 degrees above average are likely with daytime highs possibly getting into the 70's by late next week.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions expected to persist for the bulk of this forecast period.

Low-level northwesterly flow has quickly cleared out ceilings at area TAF sites, with OGB nearly in VFR conditions per satellite imagery. There is one more band of MVFR ceilings pushing southeastward towards the sites right now and it contains cigs around 2500 ft but this should move southeast of the sites after 02z. By that point, mostly mid to high level clouds are forecast for most of the nights cross the area, with some ground fog possible near bodies of water or fog prone locations given the amount of rain we saw yesterday. A strong low-level jet tonight should keep widespread fog at bay, though. As we get into tomorrow, most of the high clouds from overnight will shift eastward and clear skies are expected during the afternoon hours. Winds are forecast to pick up in advance of a stout, dry cold front pushing east-southeast across the eastern CONUS. Look for westerly winds of 15-20 knots gusting as high as 25 knots during the afternoon hours. Otherwise, VFR TAFs are expected.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions tonight with no anticipated aviation concerns through early next week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.