textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Not much change in the overall forecast. Aviation discussion updated for 06z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Dry, warm weather favored through the week.

- 2. Potential for a strong cold front to usher in a much cooler air mass for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Dry, warm weather favored through the week.

A strong upper ridge centered over the lower Mississippi Valley this morning is forecast to move eastward and over our area through the week. As it does, dry conditions persist and afternoon highs are likely to be several degrees above normal through the rest of the work week, particularly for the last half of the week. For reference, the normal highs for this time of year are near 80 for the area and forecast highs are in the upper 80s to near 90 from Wednesday onward. Record highs for both Augusta and Columbia are possible beginning Wednesday, so that will bear watching.

Key Message 2: Potential for a strong cold front to usher in a much cooler air mass for the weekend.

Models are in good agreement that an upper trough over western Canada translates eastward, begins to dig southward, and phase with an upper low that's over the Four Corners region beginning midweek. This feature is forecast to continue digging south and move eastward, becoming a fairly deep trough by the time it reaches the eastern CONUS by next weekend. A strong cold front is forecast to develop in response to the upper trough, which should move through the area this weekend. Confidence is high for much cooler temperatures and breezy winds for the upcoming weekend. However, there remains some disagreement on how strong and fast this likely front moves through the area, playing a role in our afternoon highs over the weekend. Despite how strong the front looks, there doesn't appear to be much moisture to work with at this time, so it does look to be a dry front. Breezy conditions

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period outside of potential early morning patchy fog.

Currently, clear skies over the terminals. Upstream, there are some high clouds making their way across the region. Otherwise expect mainly clear skies through the TAF period. Winds are expected to be light and variable to calm overnight, then shifting to the west to northwest after about 15z, remaining light around 5 kts through the day.

There remains a small chance for fog with highest chances at the fog prone AGS or OGB; we have seen some transient shallow fog at AGS already overnight. However, confidence continues to be low at this time in impacts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant aviation concerns.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.