textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added mention of possible diurnal rain chances starting early next week. Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Warming trend begins today, continuing into this weekend with dry conditions. Diurnal rain chances may enter early next week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Warming trend begins today, continuing into this weekend with dry conditions. Diurnal rain chances may enter early next week.

A strong upper ridge near the NAEFS 90th percentile is shifting into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys tonight and is expected to continue moving overhead starting today. As it does so, a 1022-1024mb surface high is expected to move in as well. These features should aid in bringing warming temperatures starting today as 850mb temps currently near 10C (per the 00z CHS sounding) should warm toward 13- 15C. At the surface, afternoon high temperatures should reach toward the mid to upper 80s. This elongated ridge is expected to remain over the FA through at least Saturday, bringing temperatures near average in the upper 80s to low 90s, but EC Ensemble and GEFS members show PWAT's remaining around 50-60% of normal, meaning deep moisture/humid conditions should be kept mostly at bay. This changes heading into Sunday as the ridge begins shifting offshore and southerly moisture transport moves into the region. Temperatures Sunday are expected to remain toward the lower 90s, but surface dewpoints increasing into the mid to upper 60s, should bring humid conditions. There is better consensus looking at individual EC Ensemble and GEFS members in PWAT's returning above 1" early next week and when coupled with the departing/weakening ridge, seasonable instability could develop. Overall, the pattern early next week is favoring a more typical summer pattern with seasonable temperatures and perhaps some diurnal showers/storms.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Mainly VFR Conditions should continue through the TAF Period at all sites.

With high pressure over the area through the period, winds through the morning hours will generally be calm to light and variable at all sites. Once better mixing starts, there should be enough of a pressure gradient through the daytime to bring winds up to around 5 knots out of the north/northeast. A return to light and variable should occur towards sunset this evening.

With the airmass remaining quite dry, do not expect any significant fog. Only potential site impacts could be at ags/ogb where the usual shallow morning river steam fog is being shown by area webcams, and this bring brief restrictions to those sites. May include a tempo group through 13z to handle brief mvfr visibilities.

As for clouds, those should be very minimal, with mainly some thin cirrus passing across the area.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Drier air continues to hang on through the weekend with mainly VFR conditions expected.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.