textproduct: Columbia

SYNOPSIS

Dry weather continues for much of this week with a notable warming trend. This may lead to near record temperatures Wednesday through Friday. The next significant chance of rain, along with cooler temperatures, arrives this weekend as a cold front moves through.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Patchy fog possible early this morning

Early this morning: a 35 kt low level jet will ultimately limit the threat of widespread fog. However a few wind-sheltered locations may still see patchy fog around sunrise.

Otherwise, no impactful weather expected in the near term. Westerly mid level flow will help bring PWAT values down to 0.6 to 0.8 inches so a a dry forecast continues. It will be very warm for the time of year with highs in the low to mid 70s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 40s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Above average temperatures continue. - Chance for showers late Friday night.

Upper ridge continues to build over the region, with the axis just offshore as a trough begins to dig and strengthen in the central CONUS. Meanwhile, a surface high also builds just offshore. As a result, robust southwest flow is expected to be over the region in the short term, leading to continued warmer than average temps both Thursday and Friday. Thursday may be similar in temps to Wednesday, but Friday is forecast to be a bit warmer, in the mid to upper 70s. As mentioned in the previous forecast package record highs for Friday are: CAE - 80, AGS - 78. It remains within the realm of possibilities to match or exceed these records. The aforementioned trough is forecast to push a frontal boundary toward the forecast area, but latest guidance continues to deepen the trough, and thus, slow it down. As such, the slowing of arrival for precipitation chances continues. The western portions of the forecast area could some shower activity late Friday night, but that seems to be decreasing at this time.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Key message(s):

- Well above average temperatures with warm advection ahead of a front. - Chance of rain associated with the front, cooler air mass into next week.

With the trend in guidance continuing to slow down the trough, Saturday is trending warmer as warm air advection continues through most, if not all, of the day. Forecast highs are once again near records for both CAE (82) and AGS (80). The front is now trending to pass during the latter half of the weekend, but some prefrontal precipitation remains possible for Saturday and Saturday night. Cooler temps are forecast to follow the frontal passage, but like the other sensible weather changes, the cooler weather is trending toward a later arrival than previous forecasts.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

MVFR restrictions possible early this morning, otherwise VFR and dry weather expected after 15Z. Slight chance of LLWS til 13Z.

KCAE 88D VAD wind profile shows a 30 to 35 kt LLJ this morning. Surface winds are expected to remain elevated through the early morning. However if there is a drop off around sunrise, then we may see marginal LLWS conditions develop. Once deeper mixing sets in after 13Z the chance of LLWS diminishes.

The LLJ in place will prevent widespread fog, however with low level moisture still abundant over the region we may see MVFR strato cu develop or patchy fog at the sheltered and fog prone AGS around sunrise. Winds will strengthen around 15Z out of the west at 7-10 kt. Given the latest observations and trends in the HRRR, will show low-end VFR ceilings at all terminals through mid-morning. VFR conditions will then prevail through the remainder of the day with W winds from 7 to 10 kts, becoming light and variable around sunset. Restrictions will be possible again early Thursday morning with little change in the air mass.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Widespread restrictions possible this weekend as deep moisture and increased rain chances return to the region.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.