textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Isolated showers continue through the evening but the bulk of the activity remains to the west. Severe weather is unlikely for the remainder of the day. Any remaining storms should diminish overnight. Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Diurnal showers and storms each day through the period.

DISCUSSION

- 1. Diurnal showers and storms each day through the period.

Confidence remains high in the pattern over the next seven days. Guidance is in good agreement that the persistent troughing over the past few days will continue to fill and lift northward. Replacing it will be a low amplitude, seasonally strong ridge, centered a bit to our south per LREF means. While heights should be in the ~90th percentile for this time of year, persistently high low-level moisture looks like it will remain in place through at least the middle of next week. This should foster a classically summer pattern, with highs in the low to mid 90s and daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Confidence is high in this as LREF IQR spread is quite low for both 500 hPa heights and PWs through much of the next 7 days. Plus, a strong surface Bermuda high will be entrenched, and this usually offers one or two inverted surface troughs to help focus convection. With PWs of 1.8" to 2.1" through the period, expect typical summertime weather. Strong storms can't be ruled out but will generally be limited to the strongest convection and likely won't be widespread.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions likely outside of isolated storms. IFR cigs and vsby possible Thursday morning.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have largely dissipated across the central and northern Midlands, with the main axis of convection toward our west. A few isolated showers remain possible near AGS/DNL/AIK, so the PROB30 group has been maintained through 02z. Some overnight and early morning stratus development is expected into Thursday, with widespread IFR ceilings likely. However, with less widespread rainfall compared to previous nights, the potential for dense fog and extremely low cigs appears lower (and guidance has trended away from that scenario). A TEMPO group is included at this time.

Ceilings should lift after daybreak, with VFR cumulus returning for most of the day on Thursday. Similar coverage of isolated afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms is expected, with current probabilities supporting a PROB30 group, consistent with previous days.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal thunderstorms expected this week with early morning restrictions possible.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.