textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Temperatures rise into the weekend to well above average. Near record highs possible next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Temperatures rise into the weekend to well above average. Near record highs possible next week.

Strong model consensus in upper ridging continuing to build into the weekend, centered to the west of the forecast area leading to well above average temperatures and continued dry weather. By Tuesday, ensemble means indicate the ridge axis will shift eastward and strengthen with 500mb heights approaching 2 standard deviations above normal. Probability of max temperatures greater than 90F will be high for Wednesday and Thursday of next week (generally greater than 60%). This will lead to highs approaching daily record highs Tuesday through Thursday. With the strength of the ridging and a dry air mass in place with high probability of PWATs less than 1 inch based on the LREF, rain is not expected through the next week. This combined with well above average temperatures will likely exacerbate drought conditions.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions likely continue through the TAF period.

As high pressure moves over the area today, winds diminish and will be generally variable through the day. There may be a slight tend towards NE winds in the morning, with a weak southerly component by the afternoon. But overall expect light and variable winds. Fog prone AGS would be the most likely to experience brief vis restrictions during the early morning hours. However the shallow fog typical at AGS is unlikely to significantly impact aviation.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Dry weather remains in the forecast with little chance of widespread restrictions through the extended.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.