textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added a second Key Message to highlight increased rain chances for this upcoming weekend. Updated aviation discussion for the 06z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Fire Weather concerns remain elevated through the end of this week as drought conditions persist amid a dry airmass.

- 2. A gradual pattern change is expected by next weekend, with rain chances increasing Saturday and Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Fire Weather concerns remain elevated through the end of this week as drought conditions persist amid a dry airmass.

We continue to have elevated fire weather concerns as we get into this week. The well advertised cool down has arrived across the southeastern CONUS but the airmass is just as dry as it was before. Two dry cold fronts are forecast to pass through the area this week - one today and another on Wednesday. Ahead of these, winds are forecast to end up being fairly breezy across the area, especially closer to the NC border where the pressure gradients will likely be strongest. Despite the fronts pushing near us, surface moisture will remain sparse throughout much of the week. We do expect gradual airmass modification through Friday but temperatures will increase in lockstep with any low- level moisture increases. The result is daily MinRH values in the critical range - at or below 25%. Couple that with the breezy winds this afternoon & again on Wednesday afternoon, and our fire weather concerns remain fairly high. SC Forestry has continues the burn ban until further notice, so please remain vigilant and avoid burning.

Key Message 2: A gradual pattern change is expected by next weekend, with rain chances increasing Saturday and Sunday.

While we don't want to get too excited just yet, the pattern appears to be setting up favorably for increased rain chances across the area beginning next weekend. For quite sometime now, the large scale pattern has been very favorable for dry and warm conditions across the area. However, tele-connections like the NAO/PNA are forecast to shift into spaces that favor troughing across the central and eastern CONUS, with greater rain chances in our neck of the woods resulting from this. Guidance continues to show multiple shortwave passing through the area towards the end of this period, along with strong moisture return to support at least some seasonally normal instability across the area. All of this to say - rain is on the horizon, even if won't be drought busting or anything close to it. Real rain chances are welcome and appear to be favored (finally) by next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions expected.

Still have enough upper support and moisture for some thin cirrus development across the Piedmont region overnight. However, for aviation purposes skies will be clear. Very dry airmass will be in place through the period, and skies will remain mostly clear to clear through 06z Tuesday. Winds have mostly decoupled, and calm to light and variable should occur through the night. Winds pick up by mid-morning as mixing begins, with west to northwesterly winds around 10 knots and gusts around 15 knots expected through the afternoon. Once the inversion sets up by sunset, winds decouple again and surface conditions return to light and variable.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No widespread restrictions expected through Friday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.