textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 06z TAFs and to continue mention of possible patchy fog at some terminals.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Hot conditions continue across the area, with chances for thunderstorms the next couple of days. Higher chances of rain return this weekend with a slow moving front.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Hot conditions continue across the area, with chances for thunderstorms the next couple of days. Higher chances of rain return this weekend with a slow moving front.

The forecast is a classically summer one, with hot conditions persisting through the period (really until late this weekend) and showers and storms expected. Today will likely be the last day until this weekend that I expect scattered showers/storms to dot the sky during the afternoon hours. Guidance has been almost abysmal the last few days at anticipating convection, which does make sense given it is weakly forced. Still, the same signal persists and it continues to feature coverage lower than should be expected. The environment is very similar to yesterday/Sunday, with HREF mean soundings showing a convective temp in the low 90s, 2" PWs, 1500-2500 j/kg of SBCAPE, DCAPE 700-800, TEI ~25. So as has been the case the last couple of days, expecting a relatively early start to convection as temps quickly warm into the low 90s by the early afternoon hours. We will probably see lower coverage today than yesterday as heights will be slowly rising; however, this should be minor enough to not hamper convection should it get going. Strong to marginally severe storms are probable given the above environment.

Heights are forecast to continue rising into Wed/Thur as low amplitude ridging builds back into the region from the southeast. This isn't really that strong but PWs do fall back to near normal so precip chances look to wane a bit, especially on Wednesday. There is more of a signal in the guidance today than 24h ago for another wave of above normal PWs to overspread the area on Thursday which could result in more showers/storms across the area. A front is forecast to approach over the weekend and provide an impetus for showers and storms again. As has been stressed the last week or so, the heat continues to be dangerous, especially for areas that don't see relief from storms. Mid to upper 90s temps continue to be common, yielding a long stretch of intense heat across the area. Please remain diligent in practicing heat safety if you have outdoor activities planned.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the majority of the TAF period with brief restrictions once again possible in afternoon TSRA/SHRA and predawn fog/stratus.

Evening convection continues to wane with less impact on the terminals expected through morning. Due to extensive rainfall across the region and at some terminals, conditions may favor some morning vsby restrictions in fog so have continued the tempo groups at all terminals except AGS/DNL/AIK where rainfall was sparse. Southwesterly winds expected to pick up by 14z to around 6 to 10 knots. Another afternoon of scattered convection is expected with a hot and humid air mass in place and have kept the PROB30 group for thunderstorms all terminals 17-23z time frame.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Daily rain chances and possible restrictions continue through at least midweek.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.