textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated key messages to remove mention of Saturday. Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. A cold front brings a low chance for a few showers, increased fire weather concerns, and cooler weather to start the next week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: A cold front brings a low chance for a few showers, increased fire weather concerns, and cooler weather to start the next week.

Our well advertised cold front is approaching currently, moving into the upstate as of this writing. Unfortunately, much of the precipitation weakening as it moves eastward. Guidance continues to show some isolated showers with this front but as we have noted over the past few days, this is not a favorable setup for widespread rainfall. The front should approach and move through between 9a and 2p today. Behind the front, gusty winds of 20 mph or more are expected but should only last an hour or two. Much cooler air is expected behind the front as we get into this week as cool and dry high pressure overspreads the area. By the end of the week, temps will again push above normal into the mid 80s. We maintain an elevated fire weather risk this week despite weak winds overall. Min RH values will be near critical values each day. SC Forestry has implemented a Burn Ban until further notice so please avoid any burning activities! There remains a signal for a wetter pattern beginning at the very end of this period and towards the beginning of May.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions remain through the valid TAF period.

Cold front is currently moving through the Piedmont region of SC/GA, just west of the forecast area. Regional radars show some light showers moving out of the central Appalachians along the front. Most guidance indicates these showers will diminish in coverage and intensity as they move into the Midlands and CSRA. Each terminal may see a brief period of -ra this morning before drying out again this afternoon, so included a tempo period for vfr conditions for 6sm -ra. The main impacts with clouds associated with the front will be a period with some broken low end vfr clouds, then conditions return to more scattered by 18z. In addition, winds will increase and turn more west/northwesterly as the front pushes off to the east by late morning. Sustained winds behind the front will increase to between 10-15 knots, and wind gusts between 20-25 knots will be possible at all locations through much of the afternoon, then gusts diminish towards 00z with winds dropping to between 5-9 knots after sunset lasting into the overnight hours.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No widespread restrictions expected through Thursday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.