textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Key Messages remain on target with previous forecast. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Dry weather continues this week with gradually warming temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Dry weather continues this week with gradually warming temperatures.

Minimal change in the overall forecast thinking with the extended dry period continuing most likely through the end of the month. Upper ridge will slowly translate east through the week and flatten out by Thursday, while surface high pressure remains anchored over the northeast and ridges south across the eastern seaboard. This will result in slightly warmer temperatures each day with fairly high confidence given very small NBM IQRs through Saturday. Tonight there is the potential for temperatures to fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s, mainly north and west of I-20. This is mainly due to weaker boundary layer winds and some drier air at the surface, resulting in the potential for patchy frost in normally cold/sheltered locations. The threat is not widespread enough to warrant a Frost Advisory at this time, but we will continue to monitor trends. Otherwise, expect a continuation of warm days and cool nights this week. Temperatures should reach above normal values by Friday and Saturday as the pattern starts to show some signs of shifting, with the next chance of rain returning to the forecast for the first day of November.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions expected to continue through the TAF period.

Mostly clear skies and 6-11 kt winds out of the north-northeast to northeast are seen this afternoon and these conditions should persist into the evening. FEW to SCT cirrus should move in this evening and overnight with light and variable winds that continue into Tuesday morning. No fog is expected again tonight with dry conditions continuing. By the mid morning Tuesday, mostly clear skies and light winds out of the northeast are expected, continuing through the end of the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant aviation concerns through the week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.