textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 06z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Dry, warm weather favored through the week.

- 2. A strong cold front is forecast to push through the region Friday night, ushering nice Autumnal weather.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Dry, warm weather favored through the week.

Confidence remains high in above normal temperatures remaining in place as strong, anomalous upper ridging is forecast to build over the Southeast through Wednesday and linger over the area until later this week. NAEFS 500 hPa heights are expected to be near the model climate's max for this time of year. With a relatively dry airmass in place and sunny skies, we are looking at near record highs across the area starting today and into Friday. Highs of 86F-90F look likely in this period, with lows likely rebounding a bit into the low 60s given relatively low dewpoints for such a warm airmass. The EFI values are sitting around 0.75-0.85 each day, confidence is high that anomalous temps will continue. The combination of strong southwesterly flow and compressional heating ahead of a cold front should yield ideal conditions for a record to break.

Key Message 2: A strong cold front is forecast to push through the region Friday night, ushering nice Autumnal weather.

Guidance is in good agreement that a strong cold front will sweep across the southeast heading into this weekend. A deep trough is forecast to develop over the central US over the next couple of days and begin marching eastward, pushing the front along with it. This will occur in conjunction with a strong, anomalous surface high pressure pushing out of the upper Midwest and into the Mid- Atlantic by this weekend. Medium range guidance generally agrees that it should be a relatively dry front with only sprinkles possible late Friday and into Saturday morning. There is still some minor spread in the timing of the front but in general it is forecast to push through the area easily on Friday night, with a much welcomed cool down following in its wake. Guidance is tightly clustered for highs and lows this weekend into early next week as a result, with well- below normal temps in the 60s on Saturday and Sunday, bumping back up into the low 70s by early next week. Overnight lows look chilly, with 40s likely across most of the area. Our cooler spots may flirt with the 30s given the low dewpoint airmass! Additionally, expect it to be breezy on Friday night and Saturday. The EFI wind gust signal is pretty good (~0.7-0.75) for Saturday, with gusts of 30+ mph expected behind such a strong front.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR outside of potential early morning patchy fog.

Calm winds and clear skies continue overnight as high pressure dominates over the region. Radiational cooling could produce brief early morning fog at our fog-prone sites of AGS/OGB and along the rivers, but have kept the TAFs VFR due to low confidence in the exact timeframe and overall impacts; the typical 06-08z MIFG is moving through AGS now. Light winds and clear/dry conditions continue Wednesday with winds generally out of the SW, but could be variable much of the day.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A front will move across the area late this week and early weekend. Although precipitation is unlikely, breezy W/SW winds are expected Friday shifting to northerlies Saturday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.