textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 06Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. A typical summer pattern expected this week with increasing moisture and warming temperatures during the mid to late week period.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: A typical summer pattern expected this week with increasing moisture and warming temperatures during the mid to late week period.

For today and Tuesday, the surface ridging will shift far enough east to allow deeper moisture to push into the area. On Monday, the primary plume of 1.75"+ PWATs will stay primarily across Georgia, so the main rain chances are generally in the CSRA. This plume of higher PWAT's shifts east by Tuesday and yields higher rain chances across the entire area. Scattered daytime showers and thunderstorms are then expected each day through the end of the week with a fairly typically summer pattern in place. With the ridge in our vicinity, significant rainfall is unlikely. While PWAT's should climb above 1.75", QPF totals across all guidance is generally only 0.25-0.75" with some isolated higher amounts in areas that see repeated rounds of thunderstorms. The combination of heat and humidity could result in our first days of heat index values at or above 100 degrees on Thursday and Friday, though still below heat product criteria.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions the next 24 hours. Isolated showers and/or storms during the late afternoon and evening.

Cloud cover will limit fog development overnight. AGS may have to deal with their usual brief patchy shallow ground fog around sunrise, but confidence not high enough to place in that taf site at this time. All other TAF sites remain vfr through sunrise.

Expect light southwest winds from 5 to 8 kt by late morning continuing into the afternoon. A weak front approaching from the north and convective outflow from the west could bring an isolated shower/storm to the area late this afternoon and evening. If a taf site is impacted, brief restrictions could be possible. Will not include vcsh at this time due to limited coverage around each taf site, but will continue with the Prob30 for later this afternoon and evening for thunderstorm potential.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Deeper moisture remains in place through the week leading to scattered, mainly diurnal, showers and thunderstorms.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.