textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Update to the Key Messages. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Diurnal strong showers and storms each day through the period.

DISCUSSION

- 1. Diurnal strong showers and storms each day through the period.

Showers are storms are starting to develop both here and in the coastal plain. These will continue to expand in coverage over the next several hours, with numerous showers and thunderstorms expected across the area by mid to late afternoon. Strong storms are again possible today as forecast soundings reveal a profile favorable for wet microbursts. These shouldn't be as widespread as the convection though, but rainfall rates are expected to be high and lightning copious. Beyond today, upper level ridging is forecast to slowly build through the beginning of next week. 90th percentile heights will foster highs climbing back into the mid 90s, while PWs in the 1.8-2.0" range will continue to foster daily chances at showers and thunderstorms. The typical threats will likely be associated with these, with storm coverage a bit lower than today for most of the period.

AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Showers and storms around this afternoon and evening.

Scattered showers and storm will move through the region this afternoon causing periods of restrictions. Convective activity will be widespread and likely impact each TAF site before weakening later this evening. Combination of tempo and prob30 groups cover this potential for all TAF sites. Winds outside of convection will be gusty and variable with numerous outflows from the convection. Overnight into Friday morning, low stratus is likely for much of the region especially given the rainfall expected this evening.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal thunderstorms expected this week with early morning restrictions possible.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.