textproduct: Columbia
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Aviation discussion updated for 18Z TAFs.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. Dry high pressure continues through the end of this week, with rain chances continuing to lower this weekend. Uncertainty in the forecast remains next week.
DISCUSSION
Key Message 1: Dry high pressure continues through the end of this week, with rain chances continuing to lower this weekend. Uncertainty in the forecast remains next week. The near stationary surface ridging across the northeastern CONUS will remain steadfast over the next week or so, with guidance now in good agreement on a relatively dry forecast over the weekend. Breezy northeast winds and dry high pressure will continue through Sunday before a weak and ultimately inconsequential shortwave brings a brief return of moisture to the area, with a couple of showers possible; PoP's however remain less than 20% regionwide. The surface ridging digs across the area for the first half of next week before the pattern becomes more chaotic aloft with numerous shortwaves and trough ejections. There is enough hints within both the physics ensembles and AI suite that we could have some severe potential later next week, but it will be predicated upon these shortwave interactions. Regardless, rain chances increase late next week.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions likely continue through the TAF period.
A scattered VFR cumulus field has developed between 3.5kft and 4.5kft and bases should continue to rise slightly the remainder of the afternoon. Northeasterly to north-northeasterly winds should remain between 5-8 kts the rest of the day before becoming light and variable tonight. Passing cirrus is expected overnight into Friday morning with continuing VFR conditions. Cannot rule out patchy fog development mainly near AGS/OGB around daybreak, but confidence in this is too low to add into the TAF at the moment.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Chances for restrictions increase this weekend as moisture surges into the Southeast and rain chances also increase.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None. GA...None.
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