textproduct: Columbia
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Due to the increased fire danger for tomorrow, a Fire Danger Statement will be in effect. In addition, the SCFC is issuing a Red Flag Fire Alert beginning tomorrow morning. Aviation discussion updated for 00Z forecast.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. Increased fire weather concerns continue.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Increased fire weather concerns continue.
A weak upper trough has pushed offshore, allowing the clouds to generally clear for most of the forecast area. A strong surface high over New England and the Mid-Atlantic is expected to push its way into the area, sending a dry backdoor cold front into the region. This front is forecast to bring very dry air (RH values around 25%) into the area along with breezy winds (20-30 mph), leading to increased fire danger through the day, especially in the afternoon and evening. Therefore, a Fire Danger Statement will go into effect for the entire forecast area for tomorrow. The South Carolina Forestry Commission also announced that they will be issuing a Red Flag Fire Alert beginning at 6 a.m. tomorrow. Caution should be used with any activity that could spark a fire. As high pressure shifts offshore Thursday, low level onshore flow will likely lead to a moisture increase, limiting fire concerns, although sometimes models tend to be a bit too quick with moisture return so not out of the question of some lingering fire danger into Thursday.
Otherwise, no impactful weather expected through the period with little to no chances for rain and temperatures rising to near average by the end of the week, then well above average this weekend into early next week.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.
A backdoor cold front will move through the region overnight into Wednesday morning. A tightening pressure gradient will lead to increasing east-northeast winds after 10Z, generally around 5-10 knots. Shortly after sunrise, winds will increase to around 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots beneath a high cirrus deck. Breezy conditions will persist through Wednesday evening before gradually diminishing overnight.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The chance of restrictions is low through the end of the week.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None. GA...None.
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