textproduct: Columbia

SYNOPSIS

Upper ridging brings a steady warming trend for the remainder of the week with well above normal temperatures expected through at least Friday, possibly into the weekend. Dry conditions likely continuing into the upcoming weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Dry conditions continue with a warming trend beginning to take hold.

Early this morning: Cloud cover will continue to overspread the area through sunrise. This should bring a bounce in temperatures as the night progresses towards morning. Winds remaining fairly light.

Today and Tonight: Weak high pressure will remains across the area through the day. As we move into the overnight hours tonight, a weak front will near the northern cwa, but should remain north of the area through the period. Daytime hours will see an increase in pwats, with values generally getting to around an inch. The only impacts to the area with the slight increase in moisture today will be the expected cloud cover. Do not expect there will be any kind of rain activity. There should be some drying then overnight as slightly drier air beings working in from the north. Winds will turn more out of the southwest and becoming a little breezy through the day. This will also start some warm advection, and thus a warming trend with afternoon temperatures seeing readings in the 60s. Milder temperatures tonight with values from the middle 40s to around 50.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Notable warming trend begins Wednesday with temps climbing into the 70's.

Broad deep ridging will steadily build into the central CONUS throughout Wednesday with our area settling downstream of the primary ridge axis. This will continue the dry pattern with general subsidence, northwesterly flow aloft, and PWAT's generally falling to 0.75-0.9"; some low level moisture will linger but only enough to produce some strato-cu. With 500mb heights climbing above 580dm, it will definitely be quite warm throughout the lower half of the atmosphere. Similar in magnitude to the height anomalies, surface temps will climb into the low-mid 70's across the area; likely not quite record highs for Christmas Eve, but top 10 warmest looks very plausible.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Key message(s):

- Warming pattern continues for Christmas and into the weekend.

Little change in the pattern is expected for Christmas day through Sunday as deep ridging dominates to our west. This will continue the highly anomalous warmth with 95th or higher percentile surface temps and heights across the region. Again it doesn't quite look like we will reach record high temps (cannot rule it out however), falling a few degrees short each day. But we will have multiple days in a row that will be daily top 10 warmest, so an impressive and persistent pattern nonetheless. Finally a strong enough trough and front will dig though the mid-upper level ridging Sunday and into Monday, bringing below average temps across the area for early next week.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions likely continue most of the TAF period, with possibly brief MVFR ceilings around sunrise this morning.

Satellite imagery continues to show stratus overspreading the area from both the west and the east as low-level moisture is on the increase. Obs showing ceilings vfr around 4.5 kft, and most guidance indicates mainly vfr through the majority of the forecast period. Exception may be across the CSRA at ags/dnl where brief upper end mvfr ceilings will be possible towards sunrise. Those are expected to lift back to vfr by late morning as better mixing takes hold. Skies are forecast to scatter out at all locations later this afternoon, with vfr conditions then continuing into the overnight hours once again. As for winds, mainly light and variable during the overnight, then turning more southwesterly later this morning as better mixing occurs. May see some stronger wind gusts take hold by late morning, with wind gusts between 15-18 knots possible across the Midlands. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low level moisture is expected to linger in the region into the mid to late week where morning fog or stratus could be possible with associated restrictions.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.