textproduct: Columbia

SYNOPSIS

High pressure building in from the north will result in relatively dry conditions with below normal temperatures Sunday through Tuesday. Low chances for precipitation late Wednesday and Wednesday night as a disturbance passes through, with a return to drier conditions for late week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Key Message(s):

- Cool, dry, and breezy

Surface analysis shows ridging into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeastern states with northeast flow strengthening. This will lead to cool, low level air filtering into the forecast area. PWAT values of 1 to 1.25 inches and ridging will suppress convective development. Low pressure offshore deepens through the near term leading to a strengthening pressure gradient over the region. This will promote breezy conditions today with gusts to 20 mph this afternoon out of the NE. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s under partly cloudy skies. Overnight lows will be in the low 60s with a few spots breaking into the 50s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Drier, with below normal temperatures expected

The weather looks genuinely phenomenal Monday and Tuesday. Upper level troughing is forecast to persist across the eastern CONUS, keeping surface high pressure entrenched to our north. Surface ridging on the eastern side of the Appalachians will be favored in this pattern, enhanced by a coastal low slowly developing and moving northeastward off the Carolina coast. Drier than normal and cooler than normal temps are favored in this setup. 850 hPa temps are forecast to be below the 10th percentile both days, with PWs around the 10th percentile (per NAEFS). All of this favors mostly sunny skies both Monday and Tuesday, with highs in the low 80s and lows in the upper 50s/lower 60s. Can't really think of a nicer weather stretch to open up September!

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Key message(s):

- Deep troughing favored through the first half of this period, modifying by the end of the week - Light rain possible midweek

Deep troughing is still the favored synoptic pattern in the long term. Ensemble and operational models have come into better agreement on the midweek system, with large scale forcing still favoring some scattered showers by Wednesday and Thursday as a reinforcing shortwave digs the trough even further into the CONUS. The core of the deepest trough looks to remain to our north over the OH Valley region and Great Lakes, with near normal mid-level heights settling back in across the southeast. It does look like we'll be influence by how dry the airmass is associated with this deep trough, but the cooler than normal temps by the end of next week and into next weekend should remain to our northwest. As a result, day time highs will likely return to the upper 80s by the end of the period. With anomalously dry air remaining in place, though, diurnal ranges should be large with lows in the low 60s. Thursday will likely feature our last chance of rain of the period.

AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Brief, MIFG this morning possible through 10am but otherwise VFR.

Surface high pressure is building into the region today promoting northeast winds and dry weather. Winds will pick up by 15Z with gusts to around 18 kts in the afternoon. Dry air filtering into the forecast area will suppress convective activity this afternoon. Shallow, low level moisture will linger supporting a chance of brief, early morning restrictions at the TAF sites. Fog or stratus may be possible around sunrise but it would be short lived with winds expected to pick up shortly after. The greatest chance for restrictions are at AGS and OGB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Dry weather generally favored through the extended with low chances for significant restrictions.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.