textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered temps and Pops for today and tomorrow. Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Cooler conditions are expected through the weekend, with periods of light showers mainly today and Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Cooler conditions are expected through the weekend, with periods of light showers mainly today and Thursday.

A wedge will strengthen across the Carolinas and Georgia today, allowing a cold front to sink farther south early this morning as seen by the northerly shift and pickup in winds. The position and strength of this front will play a large role in precip coverage, cloud cover, and high temperatures today and tomorrow. With CAD conditions becoming increasingly entrenched across the CWA, low clouds and occasional light rain or drizzle should be the theme today. Max temps will be sharply cooler, ranging from the low 70s across our northern counties to upper 70s across our southern counties, where areas may remain just outside of the wedge. Precip today and tomorrow should be mainly stratiform with a few embedded showers possible at times. With that being said, PoPs for this afternoon and tomorrow have lowered compared to previous forecasts.

The wedge will fully overspread the entire region overnight, bringing lows well down into the 60s. Breezy winds should become a bit gustier on Thursday as better flow develops aloft. As the low drifts farther east and eventually off the coast, northwesterly flow will bring cold air advection, which should eventually erode the wedge through some portion of the day on Friday. With that being said, models tend to handle the progression of CAD poorly and I would expected at least the start of Friday to remain cool and cloudy. Highs will then slowly rebound closer to normal as precip and cloud-free conditions continue into the weekend. Max temps will reach the upper 70s to low 80s, with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Dewpoints will remain in the low 50s, making it feel quite pleasant out there for the weekend. However, the warming trend should continue into early next week with temperatures eventually rising back to around normal as more humid air returns.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

With the wedge entrenched across the area, MVFR conditions with with a stratus deck at 1000-1500 ft and periods of drizzle will continue across the region today. A brief period of light rain cannot be ruled out at CAE and CUB early this afternoon as broken and weakening band of light showers progresses southward across north-central SC. GFS-MOS and LAMP guidance show ceilings lowering back to IFR restrictions this evening at CAE, CUB, and OGB, although added a TEMPO group as there remains some potential for MVFR coelings to linger through midnight. IFR ceilings should then settle in overnight at AGS, DNL, and AIK around 06z. Both the wedge and IFR ceilings should be reinforced through the remainder of the TAF period with light showers mid-late morning into the afternoon Thursday as a mid-level low swings eastward across the area. Steady north-northeast to northeast winds around 10 kt with occasional gusts up to 15-20 kt are expected possible through the 24 hour TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Widespread restrictions continue through the remainder of Thursday as wedge conditions remain over the region, with additional drizzle and/or light showers possible. Drier conditions are expected beginning Friday morning, but low ceilings may persist longer than model guidance suggests.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.