textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast highs approaching daily records Wednesday through Friday. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Dry, warm weather favored through the week.

- 2. Strong cold front will usher in a much cooler air mass for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Dry, warm weather favored through the week.

Strong upper level ridging is forecast by guidance to overspread the region through the end of the week. While the ridging will be relatively transient and to our east by the weekend (more on that in a moment), we are looking at well above normal high temperatures especially on Thursday and Friday as a cold front approaches. The records on Thursday are 90 (CAE) / 91 (AGS), and 89 (CAE) / 90 (AGS) on Friday. The records on Friday are especially in danger. The bulk of the forcing for precip will be well to our north, yielding a dry cold front passage Friday night. Strong warm advection ahead of this coupled with dry air & compressional heating ahead of the front is likely to yield temps warmer than what guidance is expecting right now. Low 90s are definitely possible in this regime. But aside from potentially record highs, the weather looks benign. Dry weather is expected through this week, with highs generally in the upper 80s until Thur/Fri.

Key Message 2: Strong cold front will usher in a much cooler air mass for the weekend.

And now on to the better news: the coolest air of the season thus far is forecast to overspread the area behind the front, beginning Friday night and persisting through early next week. With forecast highs/lows in the 60s/40s this weekend, we are looking at a crisp airmass on the order of 10-15F below normal. It also looks breezy and sunny on Saturday behind the front - perfect for a trip to the pumpkin patch or haunted house if thats your kind of thing. Make some chili, some apple cider. Whatever it is you like about fall, this weekend will feature the perfect weather background for it.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period outside of potential early morning patchy fog.

Mostly clear skies are expected to continue through the TAF period. Northwesterly winds are currently near 10kts with occasional gusts near 15-18 kts, but these should subside through the remainder of the day. Tonight, winds become light and variable and when coupled with strong radiational cooling, cannot rule out patchy fog development. Recent LAMP/HRRR guidance indicates this potential, but confidence in development across the TAF sites is fairly low outside of the usual fog prone locations of AGS/DNL. This potential will continue to be monitored. After this, light and variable winds continue into the morning hours Tuesday with clear skies.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant aviation concerns.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.