textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updating verbiage in Key Message 1. Aviation updated for 18z issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. High confidence in above normal temperatures as we get into next week. Rain chances arrive by the middle to end of next week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: High confidence in above normal temperatures as we get into next week. Rain chances arrive by the middle to end of next week.

High pressure is centered over South Carolina this afternoon bringing clear skies and light and variable winds. Temperatures are on track to reach the upper 70s to around 80 degrees, falling into the mid-50s tonight. The weather will quickly begin to change and resemble our typical late Spring warm up as we head into this weekend and next week. A deep trough is forecast to dig and overspread the central US over the coming days, amplifying the downstream pattern across the eastern US. Ensemble guidance shows heights quickly rising to ~588dm, which is 90-95th percentile for this time of year. Coinciding with this is an expected increase in southeasterly flow as our surface high from today sets up across the western Atlantic as a Bermuda high. Aside from a brief shot of moisture advection in the CSRA on Sunday, chances of rain appear low until the middle of next week (at the earliest). Guidance across the board continues to show heights approaching the 95-98th percentile Mon-Tues. Highs Sun- Wed are forecast to be in the low-mid 90s each afternoon. With the high to our east & persistent onshore flow, surface moisture will be higher than it has been lately but not enough to really yield high precip chances. A front is forecast to approach but Wednesday night and Thursday, with chances for showers/storms increasing as a result. Overall, though, the above normal temps are forecast to be most impactful weather item over the next week.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR Conditions Persist During the TAF Period....

High pressure is centered over South Carolina this afternoon resulting in clear skies and light and variable winds. Winds tonight will become light to calm as high pressure moves offshore. Skies will remain mainly clear, with some cirriform clouds moving in from the west. HREF guidance suggests low-end fog chances in the CSRA late tonight, but confidence is not high enough to add it to the Augusta area TAFs. Winds on Saturday will be generally out of the south and continued light.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture increases Sunday and early next week which may lead to early morning fog or stratus.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.