textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Well below normal temperatures through the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Well below normal temperatures through the week.

A cold, arctic airmass will overspread the region and remain in place for much of the week. Confidence is quite high in temperatures 10F-20F below normal for much of the next week. Ensembles and operational models are in good agreement with this, as the physics based guidance & AI Guidance across the board is indicative of high probabilities of 2m temp anomalies <10F below normal, with their mean 2m temp anomalies for the 7 day period of 7p today through 7p next Monday (2/3/26) an impressive 10F to 15F below normal values for this time of year. This will equate to multiple days of highs only in the 40s and lows routinely in the 20s.

Tonight may be our coldest night as the frigid airmass that drove the CONUS scale winter storm over the weekend shifts southeastward. Lows tonight are forecast to be in the teens across the area and surface winds likely will stay 5-10 mph within this airmass as the surface high remains to our west. This should yield 8F-15F wind chills early Tuesday morning, and we will issue a Cold Weather Advisory from 10p this evening through 9a Tuesday to account for this. Confidence is growing that we will see another airmass this cold over the upcoming weekend, so we may need advisories then although it is too early to determine that with any precision. Be sure to take steps to protect your house and pipes from any pipe bursts by dripping faucets through this period at night.

AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Generally MVFR/VFR conditions become VFR conditions by midday.

The rain has exited the forecast area, leaving behind MVFR to VFR ceilings at the TAF terminals to begin the period. The terminals are expected to be generally MVFR through about 14z-15z before improving to VFR. There are IFR ceilings approaching CAE and CUB, so have added a tempo group to account for those as well. Once the terminals go to VFR, they are expected to remain there through the TAF period. Westerly winds at the start of the period, shift to northwesterly and increasing later this morning, gusting to around 20 kts at times. A few gusts are possible prior to the main increase. Winds decrease to about 5-7 kts overnight from the northwest.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions, and mainly SKC, likely through Friday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041- 115-116-135>137. GA...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for GAZ040-063>065-077.