textproduct: Columbia

SYNOPSIS

Daytime temperatures rise to above normal values today, approaching near record highs by Friday before a cooling trend this weekend. The chance of rain is low through Friday with the next significant chance for rain expected late Friday or Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Cool temperatures expected this morning, with slightly warmer temps this afternoon.

Overall, the weather continues to look beautiful and quiet today. Surface high pressure continues to translate across the Carolinas, beginning to shift off the coastline at this hour. There has been some low end moisture return, with dewpoints bumping back up into the mid 30s across the area. Despite this, still expecting temperatures to fall into the mid 30s for lows by sunrise. We had a brief period of clouds pass over the area but these are now to the east, setting the area up for ideal radiational cooling through the early morning hours. As we get into the day today, look for temps to warm slightly from where they were as low-level flow shifts out of the southwest. Highs should bump up into the upper 60s or low 70s this afternoon under a dry airmass and clear, sunny skies. Tonight, a shortwave will pass to our north and should shift some higher moisture across the area, with PWs rising to near 1". The best moisture should remain to our north, yielding very low chances of rainfall with this system. There should be some more clouds around than there have been of late, though, so expect lows in the 50s tonight.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Partly to mostly sunny and warm with well above normal temperatures expected.

Upper ridging will dominate the weather across the region during the short term, with the ridge axis likely moving overhead Thursday or Thursday night. This will combine with surface high pressure off the coast to produce above normal temperatures. Southwesterly flow around the anticyclone will promote moisture and temperature advection. While the chance for rain remains very low, less than 10 percent, the added moisture should result in partly to mostly sunny skies, especially on Thursday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Key message(s):

- Above normal temperatures continue, with near record highs possible on Friday.

- The next chance for rain is expected Friday night into Saturday. - Temperatures gradually cool this weekend into early next week, though values remain above seasonal values.

Upper ridging flattens on Friday in response to a system ejecting out of the Southwestern US. While guidance has come into better agreement since last night, there remain differences between the deterministic GFS and Euro regarding the strength of a passing shortwave trough and its timing. At the surface, high pressure remains anchored to our southeast on Friday and this could be the warmest day of the next seven if the approaching storm system holds off. Forecast highs on Friday will challenge records at both Columbia and Augusta but this will be dependent on the amount of cloud cover seen during the day. It'll be warm regardless and likely followed by a gradual cooling trend, though forecast temperatures remain above seasonal values through the extended. In terms of precipitation, the blended guidance still shows rain arriving Friday night with the best chance on Saturday when an area of low pressure passes to the north, dragging a cold front through the FA. Sunday and Monday should be cooler and drier as high pressure returns.

AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR through the period.

High pressure continues to shift across the area and has settled across the coastline of NC/SC. There has been a slight uptick in moisture but overall this is pretty insignificant right now. Winds are very light and skies are clear everywhere (after some brief high clouds passed atop the area earlier) so VFR will likely persist through 12z everywhere. This seems like a great setup for OGB/AGS to have some surprise ground fog and will keep an eye on this potential. However, crossover temps were in the teens this afternoon, so thinking its unlikely that ground fog develops. As we get into the day, VFR conditions are expected to continue. Surface flow should gradually become southerly, with winds commonly 4-8 knots at all sites. By tonight, some 4kft to 6 kft scattered clouds should develop as a trough moves to our north. A strong low-level jet is expected to develop on the order of 30-40 knots by the end of this period. This may necessitate inclusion of LLWS at some point in the forecast but confidence is too low to do so right now. All in all, a quiet, VFR forecast is in place.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions likely continue through most of the week with dry air in place. Increasing moisture Friday night will lead to chances for rain and possible restrictions.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.