textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Dry conditions persist this weekend into next week with temperatures initially near normal warming back above normal by the mid week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry conditions persist this weekend into next week with temperatures initially near normal warming back above normal by the mid week.

As previously discussed, strong radiational cooling conditions and weak CAA should bring cool morning lows toward the upper 40s to low 50s near daybreak (temperatures are already in the low to mid 50s as of writing this). After this, dry air (PWAT's below 0.50") remains in place through the weekend with max temperatures today and Sunday in the low to mid 80s. Decent radiational cooling should yield cool conditions the next couple nights with overnight lows in the low to mid 50s. Heading into next week, the blocking pattern from the closed upper low in the Northeast and central CONUS ridge begins to break down as a sharp trough likely digs into the western US. This feature is expected to interact with the remnant moisture from what is now Hurricane Polo as it shifts into the Four Corners region, thus some uncertainty remains in the exact evolution of the trough. Despite this, there is better agreement across global NWP/AI models that gradual 500mb height rises are expected over the FA into the mid week, bringing temperatures back slightly above normal. Moisture should gradually increase as well with returning southerly to southwesterly low level flow, but mostly dry weather is expected much of the week.

Toward the end of the forecast period is when the aforementioned trough should begin shifting into the central CONUS and possible suppression of the upper ridge could aid in bringing back at least isolated diurnal shower chances.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals through the valid TAF period.

SKC continues through the TAF period with winds out of the north, generally around 6 knots or less. Brief localized river fog not out of the question this morning, but should not cause significant impact to the terminals. Some high clouds may move in from the west late this evening.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions expected through the extended period.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.