textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation updated for 06z TAF.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Rain chances increase again for the weekend, with a few thunderstorms possible on Saturday.

- 2) Cold temperatures return behind this system, with well below normal temps expected Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE #1: Rain chances increase again for the weekend, with a few thunderstorms possible on Saturday.

The front that brought rain through the area this afternoon seems to have stalled somewhere in the eastern Midlands as noted by the differences in wind direction and dew points. East of the front, winds are generally from the southwest while winds west of the front are generally more westerly. Dew points range from the 60s in the east to 40s in the west. The dew points on the drier side of the front are lower than previously thought, so have adjusted them to account for this into tonight.

This front is forecast to generally remain in the area into the weekend before a stronger trough is able to help push the front out of the area by the end of the weekend. With this front hanging out for the next couple of days, rain chances return for Saturday and into Sunday. Lingering moisture is forecast to lead to moderate amounts of rain, with amounts of a half inch or more possible, with higher amounts the further east you go. Latest guidance does show instability creeping into the forecast area on Saturday, leading to the potential for a few thunderstorms. The highest instability is expected to be in the lower CSRA. Shear should be sufficient enough for the potential of a stronger storm, but it depends on how far north the stronger instability gets in the afternoon on Saturday. Showers linger into Sunday as the frontal boundary gradually moves eastward.

KEY MESSAGE #2: Cold temperatures return behind this system, with well below normal temps expected Monday and Tuesday.

A large scale trough is expected to dig into the Southeast to begin the week as surface high pressure builds into the region. As a result, temperatures are expected to be much below average Monday and Tuesday. Confidence is also moderately high that lows will be below freezing Sunday and Monday nights.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions with rain showers around overnight, but heavier rain with MVFR-IFR restrictions expected Saturday morning into the afternoon.

A stalled front across the region will bring widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms throughout the TAF period. Through 12z, some scattered showers will steadily develop with cigs and vsby generally remaining VFR. After 12z, more persistent and heavier showers and thunderstorms are expected, especially at AGS-DNL-OGB, with a mix of associated IFR-MVFR restrictions. The heaviest precip period looks to be between 14-18z which is also when TSRA is most likely, again at DNL-AGS-OGB; tempo included there, with prob30 group included at CAE-CUB. Showers should lighten up a bit in the afternoon and evening, before lowering cigs to IFR-LIFR and additional rain moves in after 2200z and then throughout the remainder of the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions likely into Sunday morning before drier air and windy conditions move in. No notable periods of restrictions expected through mid-week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.