textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Removed Sunday morning verbiage from key message 1 and added new key message regarding the expected late week frontal passage. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Partly to mostly cloudy and breezy but dry this afternoon in the post-frontal environment.

- 2. Dry, warm weather favored through at least mid-week.

- 3. An abrupt change in temperatures is possible next weekend behind a late week cold front.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Partly to mostly cloudy and breezy but dry this afternoon in the post-frontal environment.

It's a warm but breezy afternoon across the Midlands and CSRA behind this morning's cold front. With strong CAA filtering into the region, expect temperatures to struggle to warm much beyond current values with forecast highs in the lower to mid 70s, except in the eastern Midlands where temperatures are in the upper 70s at midday. Skies should gradually clear out tonight but winds should remain elevated enough to limit overnight cooling. It'll be a cooler morning on Monday regardless as temperatures at daybreak should be in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Key Message 2: Dry, warm weather favored through at least mid-week.

Confidence remains high in the Synoptic pattern through mid- week. Upper ridging is expected to build over the Deep South on Monday, gradually shifting east through the work week. The upper ridging, combined with surface high pressure and lower PWATs, should promote an extended period of dry weather with warming temperatures. The mid-week period could feature near record highs Tuesday through Thursday.

Key Message 3: An abrupt change in temperatures is possible next weekend behind a late week cold front.

Medium range guidance shows a dry cold front approach the Southeastern US on Friday, ushering in a noticeably cooler air mass. Current blended guidance favors another warm and dry day on Friday, albeit slightly cooler than the mid-week period, with a cold front passing through late Friday or Friday night without much fanfare. A strong Canadian high pressure then builds in behind the front for the weekend resulting in near to slightly below normal highs and breezy winds on Saturday and below normal temperatures for Sunday. Since blended guidance does not indicate any rain with the Friday night front, rain is not currently anticipated in the FA during the next seven days.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Brief period of MVFR cigs in the CSRA improving to VFR by 20z as drier air moves into the area.

Remnants of Isaias have lifted northeast of the area with drier air building into the region, although some MVFR cigs are lingering across the CSRA impacting AGS/DNL/AIK through around 20z or so. Gusty southwesterly winds should subside with sunset diminishing to around 7 to 10 knots overnight and weakening further around sunrise Monday. Winds will pick up again with mixing around 14z from the northwest around 8 to 10 knots with mostly clear skies expected.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant aviation concerns.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.