textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Approaching frontal boundary this weekend brings chances for rain back to the area, but highest amounts look to be to our west. Aviation discussion updated for 06z.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Dry conditions continue through the end of the week.

- 2. Rain chances ramp back up this weekend into early next week as a more typical summertime pattern returns.

DISCUSSION

- 1. Dry conditions continue through the end of the week.

A surface high located over the southern Great Lakes region is forecast to drift eastward through the day today, allowing dry air to remain over our area. PWATs of under an inch have moved their way into the northern and central Midlands. Expect PWATs to remain near an inch through the day. Dew points are forecast to be similar to Thursday, with afternoon values dropping to the mid to upper 50s to lower 60s. As a result, another mild late- July day is in store for the area.

- 2. Rain chances ramp back up this weekend into early next week as a more typical summertime pattern returns.

An upper trough over the Upper Midwest and associated surface front are expected to move toward the area for the weekend into next week. As they do, moisture increases significantly, especially Saturday night into Sunday as PWATs are forecast to top the 2" mark. However, guidance keeps the frontal boundary to the west, keeping a main trigger for focused precipitation to our west as well. Ensemble probabilities keep relatively low (~10-20% depending on model suite) chances of greater than 2" of rain through Wednesday. That said, with the high PWATs and southwest flow, will not be surprised to see localized amounts over 2" as any activity that develops should be efficient rain makers. After the weekend, more typical diurnally driven activity is anticipated through midweek as residual moisture hangs around the area.

AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Weak high pressure in place over the region should keep fair weather through the forecast period with generally light winds less than 5 knots. Some higher clouds may pass over the region after 18z with some diurnal cumulus but VFR cigs expected through the period. Carrying variable wind direction given the light nature of the wind but it could vary from easterly through southwesterly at times. Predawn fog/stratus not expected.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Rain and restrictions become increasingly likely this weekend and into early next week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.