textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Fire weather concerns are diminishing as we head into the overnight, so have removed the previous Key Message #1. Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. A weak cold front moves through mid week with rain chances.

- 2. Dry conditions are expected with temperatures warming above normal this weekend and early next week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: A weak cold front moves through mid week with rain chances.

A fairly weak but dry cold front is expected to drop out of the Midwest/Great Lakes and across the Ohio Valley into the Appalachians late Wednesday into Thursday. Guidance continues to trend toward drier solutions across ensemble and global models, favoring a weaker and somewhat moisture-starved frontal passage. Poor trough orientation will not be as conducive for moisture return ahead of the boundary. As some high-res guidance reaches toward this period, there continues to be an indication of isolated to perhaps scattered showers developing Wednesday evening mainly toward the Pee Dee. A look at the recent REFS solution does indicate this potential as well where limited elevated instability could allow for a couple thunderstorms. The 12z MPAS-RRFS also a broken line of showers/storms moving through, so despite the trend toward a drier solution, at least slight chance PoP's seem reasonable mainly over the northern and eastern Midlands. Behind the cold front, dry air settles back into the area, increasing fire weather concerns once again.

Key Message 2: Dry conditions are expected with temperatures warming above normal this weekend and early next week.

Drier conditions are expected to return, although a lingering upper trough should keep temperatures near to slightly below normal to end this week. After this, a rebuilding and influence from the Bermuda High is expected to expand westward over the southeast. The sharp ridge will bring back a blocking pattern over the Carolina's with broad and moist southwesterly flow draped over much of the area. Above average temperatures are expected Saturday through Tuesday next week with high temperatures each day reaching into the 90s. This period of above normal temperatures is highlighted well in the EC EFI as values reach between 0.8-0.9 starting Sunday. Dew points are generally expected to remain in the upper 50s to lower 60s, however, a relatively weakly unstable and capped environment supports for limited to isolated convection.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions remain likely through the period.

Expect light and variable winds overnight and through much of Wednesday morning. With dry air in place and a 20 to 25 kt LLJ no restrictions are expected tonight. It will take some time for winds to pick up out of the SW as a front approaches the area. The TAFs have variable winds through 16Z but it could take as late as 18Z to see winds start picking up from 5 to 10 kts. With limited moisture available as the front moves through the Southeast we do not expect rainfall at any of the terminals, however there will be a wind shift to NW Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Widespread restrictions unlikely through Sunday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.