textproduct: Columbia

SYNOPSIS

Cold temperatures are expected once again tonight under clear skies and light winds. Near or slightly below normal temperatures favored through the remainder of the work week. Rain chances ramp up Friday night and Saturday as a low pressure system develops to our west. Dry weather is likely for early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/

Key message(s):

- Temperatures fall quickly tonight under clear skies and light winds. Skies are clear across much of the region this evening as high pressure continues to build in from the west. This should promote radiational cooling tonight allowing temperatures to drop quickly now that the sun has set. Widespread subfreezing temperatures are expected with lows mostly in the mid to upper 20s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Breezy winds on New Years Eve may impact outdoor activities

The axis of an upper level trough will swing through the eastern US Wednesday and Thursday. The associated surface low will move into New England during the day as surface high pressure shifts east in the Gulf. This will lead to a tightening pressure gradient over the forecast area on New Years Eve (Wednesday). The strongest wind gusts may arrive around sunset with gusts continuing through early Thursday morning. Although dry weather is expected, wind gusts may disrupt outdoor activities planned for the late afternoon through the turn of the new year. Currently gusts are expected to range from 20 to 30 mph from Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning. However the members of the HREF ensemble indicate some potential for localized gusts to 35 mph, especially over area lakes and unsheltered locations. A Lake Wind Advisory may be needed. Extra precautions may be needed for fireworks planned overnight.

Otherwise dry weather and below normal temperatures are expected in the short term.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Key message(s):

- Rain expected late Friday and Saturday

Little has changed in the forecast of the low pressure system which will bring rain to a large portion of the Southeast on Friday and Saturday. Ensembles continue to favor shortwave energy dipping into the Southern Plains on Friday continuing eastward on Saturday. The associated surface low pressure system will deepen to our west as moisture advection strengthens over the Southeast. Global ensemble mean PWAT values increase to 150-200 percent of normal early Saturday. Above normal moisture and the surface low will bring widespread rain/showers to the forecast area beginning Friday night. The system continues to deepen as it moves east on Saturday before rain exits the region late in the day or overnight.

Dry weather then returns for the remainder of the long term with temperatures near or slightly above normal.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Skies should remain clear throughout the forecast period with a very dry air mass in place. Winds should be light and variable to near calm overnight before picking up from the west to southwest around 8 to 10 knots after 15z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant aviation restrictions expected through Friday when moisture begins to return ahead of the next system.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.