textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Only minor changes in the overall forecast. Aviation discussion for the 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Dry weather continues the remainder of this week with temperatures near normal.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Dry weather continues the remainder of this week with temperatures near normal.

Temperatures this afternoon have generally climbed into the lower 70s across the forecast area. Expect the temps to rise into the mid to upper 70s before cooling off this evening. Tonight looks to be another chilly night, but maybe not as cool as last night, as high pressure and light surface winds are once again expected, with temps likely dipping into the mid 40s for many places.

Confidence remains high across deterministic and ensemble guidance in the synoptic evolution over the next 4-6 days. Temperatures remain near normal, in the mid to upper 70s over the coming days as high pressure builds back By the weekend, a deep trough is expected to dig in across the western CONUS. This should amplify the downstream features, being the ridge over the central part of the country and troughing across the east. Increased troughing this weekend should yield temperatures perhaps slightly below normal, potentially as soon as Friday. Despite the relatively minor uncertainty in temperatures late in the week, there is high confidence that the airmass continues to be quite moisture-starved with LREF probabilities for dewpoints reaching above 50F below 20% majority of the forecast period. Greater uncertainty in the current pattern does not enter until early next week, but even then, chances for deeper moisture to advect into the region remains low.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions likely through the next 24 hours.

Strong high pressure over the region will keep northerly flow in place with clear skies. Winds will remain around 7 to 10 knots out of the north to northeast through the afternoon, becoming light and variable around sunset. We cannot totally rule out a few gusts near 16 kts through 21z, but they should be intermittent. Fog not expected to be a concern given the very dry air mass in place.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Significant aviation concerns unlikely through Saturday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.