textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Chances for showers/storms continue this afternoon before drier conditions move in by this evening, continuing the remainder of the week.

- 2. Below normal temperatures today and Wednesday behind a front before a warming trend is expected into this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Chances for showers/storms continue this afternoon before drier conditions move in by this evening, continuing the remainder of the week.

A cold front is expected to generally stall just southwest of the CSRA through the day today, keeping PWAT's between 1.0-1.25" south and west of the I-26 corridor, but instability is forecast to be meager at best. As shown in the 00z mean HREF solution, this may bring isolated to scattered showers in the aforementioned area during the afternoon before drier air really pushes in this evening with PWAT's dropping to under 0.75" for much of the region. With this push of drier air late this afternoon into the evening, gusty winds with gusts to 20-25 mph could be possible. There remains fairly high confidence in dry conditions prevailing the remainder of the work week and into this weekend as a ridge builds overhead.

Key Message 2: Below normal temperatures today and Wednesday behind a front before a warming trend is expected into this weekend.

The push of CAA behind the front currently working into the area is expected to work in beginning early this afternoon, keeping temperatures below normal, in the mid to upper 70s. Some locations may reach the low 80s depending on how fast cloud cover moves out this afternoon into this evening. Lingering 850mb CAA into Wednesday is expected to bring another day with below normal temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. After this, there is good agreement across global models that the current Omega blocking pattern across the CONUS will break down and the strong upper ridge over the central US will progress eastward. Strong high pressure near the NAEFS 90-97th percentile will also move into the region, aiding in bringing warming temperatures that near normal by Friday, continuing into this weekend and possibly early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Variable ceiling restrictions which will improve rapidly this morning.

While there remains a mix of IFR/MVFR/VFR ceilings this morning that have been variable over the past several hours, a cold front moving through the area is leading to drier air moving in which should lead to rapidly improving ceilings this morning from north to south. Increasing northeasterly winds expected behind the front with wind gusts generally between 15 to 20 knots this afternoon out of the northeast. While an isolated shower may impact the Augusta terminals this afternoon into evening, confidence is too low to include in the TAF at this time. As drier air continues to move in tonight, VFR conditions are expected to persist overnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Drier air returns to the region mid to late week with mainly VFR conditions expected.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.