textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Now that rainfall totals from this weekend have been recorded, we have greater confidence in critical fire weather conditions on Wednesday. Aviation discussion updated for 18Z forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Increased fire weather concerns through mid week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Increased fire weather concerns through mid week.

Dry high pressure will continue to settle into the region early this week with RH values in the 20 to 30 percent range each day through Wednesday. On Tuesday night and Wednesday a dry, cold front will move through the Southeast leading to wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph. This combination of dry fuels, a dry air mass, and gusty winds heightens concern for critical fire weather conditions on Wednesday. By Thursday, moisture advection is expected to result in an increase in minimum RH values each day, helping to alleviate most of the fire weather concerns.

Otherwise, no impactful weather expected through the period with rain chances below slight and temperatures within the normal range for the season.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.

High pressure continues to build into the region with northeasterly winds around 10 knots diminishing with sunset. A blanket of high clouds will persist through the night before shifting east later Tuesday morning. Winds should pick back up by 14z as the inversion mixes out and northeasterly winds should pick up to around 10 knots with some gusts to 20 knots possible.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The chance of restrictions is low through at least mid-week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.