textproduct: Columbia

SYNOPSIS

Isolated showers are possible this afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cold front that will pass through the region. Behind the front, temperatures will cool down, but still remain above normal through the middle of the week. Another stronger front will move through by Thanksgiving, bringing additional rain chances and much colder temperatures.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/

Key message(s):

- Isolated storms possible across the north ahead of a front.

- Mild temperatures continue through tonight.

The cold front is slowly pushing towards us out of the central Appalachians, forcing isolated showers and storms along the NC/SC border. These are expected to remain isolated as we head through the evening hours, with the rest of the area remaining relatively dry ahead of this front. The best synoptic scale forcing is well to our north, and this front isn't exactly packing a punch either. So tonight should feature fairly benign weather, with lows falling into the mid 50s for lows.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Dry and not as warm as high pressure passes to the north.

The shortwave trough will pass to our east Sunday morning with northwesterly flow aloft as a ridge builds in from the west. The ridge axis passes overhead on Monday before the flow turns southwest in advance of the next trough. At the surface, high pressure builds in from the west on Sunday, with the center passing north on Monday and then offshore Monday night. Any lingering clouds clear out Sunday morning in the wake of the cold front with forecast highs in the lower to mid 70s. Monday is cooler due to northeast to east flow at the surface as the aforementioned high passes to the north with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Dry conditions prevail both days but PWATs are expected to rise quickly Monday night ahead of the next storm system.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Key message(s):

- Warmer temperatures expected as rain chances return for Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Much cooler weather moves in behind the next storm system to close out the extended.

The upper ridge axis will be to our east at the start of the period giving the region southwesterly flow aloft. This continues into Wednesday before a potent trough swings through with troughing in place through the remainder of the extended. Meanwhile, surface high pressure continues to move away from the region on Tuesday as an area of low pressure moves northeast towards Lake Superior. This storm system will drag a cold front through the FA late Wednesday or Wednesday night followed by a much cooler and drier air mass and high pressure for Thanksgiving and the remainder of the extended.

In terms of the weather during the long term, Tuesday and Wednesday are both warm thanks to southerly flow on Tuesday and southwest winds on Wednesday. Showers will be possible both days, with improving conditions Wednesday night once the cold front crosses through the region. Thanksgiving and Friday are dry but also noticeably colder with below normal temperatures. The cold and dry pattern likely remains in place through the remainder of the extended.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the 24hr forecast period.

A cold front will push through the region later this evening and overnight bringing a drier and cooler air mass to the region. Skies have generally cleared this evening outside of some lingering mid level clouds at AGS/DNL which should clear by 03z. Some higher clouds may accompany a shortwave passing by later tonight which will drive the front through but no restrictions are expected. Depending on how fast the drier air can infiltrate the area there is a possibility of some intermittent fog at prone AGS and OGB but confidence is low so not included in this forecast. Winds should be light and from the southwest until the front passes then shifts to the northwest. Winds pick up from the northeast around 5 knots by 14z before shifting back to the northwest during the afternoon but remaining relatively light.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant aviation concerns expected through early next week. By mid-week, another approaching cold front Wednesday into Thursday could bring a return of restrictions.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.