textproduct: Columbia
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAFs.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. Well above normal temperatures with showers and isolated thunderstorms possible later this week.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: Well above normal temperatures with showers and isolated thunderstorms possible later this week.
High pressure over New England is expected to shift offshore midweek with upper ridging strengthening from the south. This setup is expected to lead to well above average temperatures with a relatively high confidence temperature forecast from Wednesday into the weekend. NBM and LREF members continue to show interquartile ranges of 4 degrees or less for this period, with highs generally in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.
The rain forecast is less certain, though PWAT values should rise to 1" or more by Friday as southerly to southwesterly flow persist through the column. The overall strength of the surface high and upper ridge will be a limiting factor for precipitation given a lack of any forcing mechanism or upper level support amid the increased moisture. As a result, blended guidance has trended lower with pops for the second half of the week and into the weekend. With a relatively hot and humid air mass for this time of year, diurnal showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms will be possible each day particularly Friday into the weekend. The severe threat remains low.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Ceilings Lower to MVFR Levels Tonight....
Latest satellite imagery shows mid-level cloudiness with ceilings around 12,000 feet approaching the terminals. Once ceilings drop, they are expected to remain low into much of Tuesday. Confidence in IFR ceilings developing remains low but trends will be monitored. Gradual improvement from southeast to northwest near the end of the current TAF period, with OGB likely to clear out first followed by CAE/CUB and AGS/DNL. There is the potential for a faster clearing, as indicated by some of the guidance, but opted to lean towards the cloudier solution from the previous forecast and what is shown in the HREF and modeled soundings. Winds are expected to be predominantly from the east to northeast through the TAF period.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...There is potential for morning stratus or fog into the latter half of the week along with increased shower chances for the weekend.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None. GA...None.
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