textproduct: Columbia

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Temperatures rise into the weekend to well above average. Near record highs possible next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Temperatures rise into the weekend to well above average. Near record highs possible next week.

Strong ridging to our southeast will steadily builds heights and raise temps through at least the middle of next week. NAEFS mean indicates 500mb heights will be above the 90th percentile by the weekend and then the 99th percentile Sunday and into early next week; even the 5th percentile in the LREF would be 5-10 degrees above average. EC EFI is consistent with a high EFI - low SoT, suggesting near record highs but generally unlikely to break any. So needless to say, confidence is high in above average temps, from Monday onward. With the strength of the ridging and a dry air mass in place with high probability of PWATs less than 1 inch based on the LREF, rain is not expected through the next week. This combined with well above average temperatures will likely exacerbate drought conditions.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions likely continue through the TAF period.

Clear skies are being noted over much of the area. However, there are a few fires showing up on satellite that may obstruct vision at times. The potential for any smoke affecting any of the terminals appears low at this time, but will continue to monitor and amend if needed. Winds diminish and become mainly variable to calm overnight before becoming generally northeast after about 13z or 14z. A weak boundary moving toward the area late in the TAF period could provide some variable winds. At this time, AGS and DNL look to have east to southeasterly winds after 21z, but will monitor trends as guidance continues to come in. Otherwise, mainly clear skies expected through the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The chance of widespread restrictions remains low through at least Tuesday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.

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