textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Key Message 1. Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Isolated convection continues over the coming hours.

- 2. Increasing rain chances Sunday into Monday, along with possible severe thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Isolated convection continues over the coming hours.

A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing across Burke County GA toward southern Aiken and Barnwell Counties. Robust updrafts have merged along outflow boundaries and regional radars at points were showing a 50dbz core exceeding 40,000ft with intense lightning noted. As heating continues to diminish, storm coverage and intensity are expected to decline as well in the coming hours before mostly dry conditions are expected tonight into Saturday morning.

Key Message 2: Increasing rain chances Sunday into Monday, along with possible severe thunderstorms.

A potent upper shortwave will shift north into eastern GA late Sunday while another shortwave drops into western and central NC. A surface boundary may sag into the northern part of the area late Sunday night or on Monday. Bulk shear looks fairly weak on Sunday (5-10 kt) with stronger shear farther north into the NC Piedmont. However, fairly strong low-level instability will develop during the afternoon, and DCAPE could exceed 1000 J/kg in spots. Furthermore, PWATs will rise above 2" over most of the area in the afternoon. Given the upper level support, we anticipate fairly good coverage of convection in the afternoon/evening, with the potential for some organization to the activity. This could result in a somewhat greater severe weather potential, primarily from damaging straight line winds.

Considerable convective coverage expected again on Monday as the surface front potentially sags south into the area, providing an additional focus.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period.

Afternoon convection continues to be focused in the CSRA this evening so continuing a VCSH until 02z for AGS/DNL/AIK. Otherwise winds becoming light and variable less than 5 knots after 02z with debris clouds through midnight then diminishing overnight. Some brief morning ground fog possible but confidence not high enough to include in the forecast. Winds pick up after 15z from the south and increase to around 8 to 10 knots during the afternoon. Isolated to scattered convection possible again Saturday but maybe later in the afternoon close to the end of the forecast period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Potential for restrictions from showers and thunderstorms continue this weekend into early next week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.