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WHAT HAS CHANGED

The severe and flooding threat for the night continues to diminish. Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Scattered showers continue overnight, with some locally heavy rain possible.

- 2. Dry, warm weather favored for next week

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Scattered showers continue overnight, with some locally heavy rain possible.

Latest radar shows a line of scattered showers moving through the central and western Midlands, with pockets of locally heavy rain embedded in this activity. Expect these to continue to move north northeast over the next few hours. Some additional ponding on roadways is possible, but the flash flood threat continues to diminish.

The tornado threat we saw this afternoon and evening is also diminishing as we lose daytime destabilization. However, there remains relatively high low-level shear values in the area, so can't completely rule out a quick spinup for cells in the warmer sector. The warmer sector is generally south of I-20.

Looking upstream, additional activity along a cold front currently moving through central Georgia is expected to continue trekking eastward through the night, bringing another round of scattered showers late tonight/early Sunday. Once this activity moves through, we are expected to dry out for the rest of the day tomorrow.

Key Message 2: Dry, warm weather favored for next week

Global ensembles are in good agreement that upper level ridging will build over the Deep South for most of next week. PWAT values below 1.5 inches and NAEFS 500 mb heights at or above the 90th percentile for the time of year supports dry weather with rising temperatures through the first part of the week. Highs will likely be in the mid to upper 80s for the middle of the week (Tue - Thu); approaching record highs.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Widespread restrictions are expected to continue into Sunday morning before gradually improving.

Widespread IFR ceilings continue this evening, with a few brief periods of MVFR ceilings for the next few hours. Scattered showers are also anticipated to continue, but breaks in the rain are also likely. The last wave of activity should be past the terminals by around daybreak. Ceilings are forecast to improve as the activity moves through the region. Winds out of the southeast transition to more southerly overnight. There remains a chance for low level wind shear near daybreak. A front is expected to move through the area in the morning, causing a shift to more southwesterly winds. These winds are forecast to become breezy, gusting to around 20 kts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Conditions continue to improve later on Sunday and into early next week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Sunday for SCZ018-025-030-035-041- 135>137. Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for SCZ016- 020>022-026>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137. GA...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Sunday for GAZ040-063>065-077.