textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Temperatures rise into the weekend to well above average. Near record highs possible next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Temperatures rise into the weekend to well above average. Near record highs possible next week.

Today is expected to be the only day within the forecast period to feature below average temperatures with warming into the weekend as upper ridging begins to build over the forecast area through the end of the week and into the weekend. NAEFS mean indicates 500mb heights will be above the 90th percentile by the weekend and then the 99th percentile Sunday and into early next week. High confidence among blended guidance in temperatures through the period with limited spread in the interquartile range. By Tuesday and Wednesday, high temperatures will be approaching daily record values. With the strength of the ridging and a dry air mass in place with high probability of PWATs less than 1 inch based on the LREF, rain is not expected through the next week. This combined with well above average temperatures will likely exacerbate drought conditions.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions likely.

A dry air mass will preclude rainfall through the 24 hour TAF period with restrictions unlikely. Winds will remain out of the northeast from 5 to 10 kts through 00Z Friday, then become light and variable as high pressure moves over the region. Shallow moisture increases Friday night may lead to typical, brief vis restrictions at AGS early Friday morning but chances are low. Guidance continues to favor VFR conditions increasing confidence in a restriction-free forecast.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The chance of widespread restrictions are low through Monday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.