textproduct: Columbia

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WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rain chances continue to diminish today as temperatures gradually return to near normal. Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAF.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Mainly dry today barring a few showers or thunderstorms in the CSRA. Warming temperatures and returning diurnal rain chances expected for the late week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Mainly dry today barring a few showers or thunderstorms in the CSRA. Warming temperatures and returning diurnal rain chances expected for the late week into the weekend.

Rain chances diminish today across most of the forecast area with the exception of southern locales. The patterns is a bit odd for the next few days as low pressure retrogrades west away from the region and flow through the column becomes predominately easterly. This will reinforce our high PWAT values at 1.7-2" over the next few days, but the lack of forcing will limit widespread convection. As heights and thicknesses increase over the next day or two, temperatures will rise back to near normal levels. By the weekend, ensembles and global models depict an elongated upper ridge stretching from the central CONUS, toward the Ohio Valley. Low level flow returns to the south to southwest and should induce a couple more degrees of warming. There is also a higher potential for some diurnally driven convection as a few disturbances move through the flow and provide a bit more of a trigger and support for storms.

AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Low Clouds Possible Early at AGS/DNL/AIK....

Radar imagery at daybreak shows a few passing showers around AGS/DNL/AIK. The Augusta terminals are also periodically reporting low IFR to LIFR ceilings, which could persist for a few more hours. Once any low clouds lift, a fairly nice day is expected as drier air pushes in and confines the showers mostly to Georgia. AGS/DNL will probably have a light shower or two around but widespread coverage is unlikely. Any showers should diminish quickly with the loss of daytime heating with mainly clear skies and light winds expected for tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The threat for restrictions eases for the end of the week into the upcoming weekend as conditions begin to dry out. Restrictions from showers and thunderstorms return this weekend.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.

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