textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated discussion to remove mention of convection for this evening. Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Hot conditions continue across the area, with limited chances for thunderstorms through Thursday. Higher chances of rain return this weekend with a slow moving front.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Hot conditions continue across the area, with limited chances for thunderstorms through Thursday. Higher chances of rain return this weekend with a slow moving front.

Latest 500mb analysis shows a mid-level ridge axis remains centered across the eastern forecast area this evening. This along with a stable layer aloft has kept the convection at bay across the region with only an isolated shower or two developed earlier this afternoon. Everything has since dissipated and expect warm and dry conditions to continue into the overnight hours.

A trough over the lower Mississippi Valley is expected to move eastward tomorrow and lift northward around the ridge over the area. As it does, the latest guidance stretches it out some. So, while the chances for thunderstorms are a bit higher tomorrow due to this, they do remain on the low side (up to ~20%) suggesting similar weather conditions to today. The latest model guidance for Friday suggests a higher risk for thunderstorms, mainly across the northern and western counties. An approaching front for the weekend brings a greater chance for shower and thunderstorm activity to the region. Flow aloft is also forecast to become more zonal, which could lead to the front and associated precipitation chances lingering into next week.

As has been emphasized over the past week, the ongoing heat remains a concern. Temperatures are expected to remain 3-6 degrees above normal through Saturday, with heat indices reaching the low to mid-100s. Most locations should remain below Heat Advisory criteria (108F), so no Heat Advisories are anticipated at this time. Continue to practice heat safety, especially with prolonged heat expected to persist. Please remain diligent if you have outdoor activities planned.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

Shower and storm activity have dissipated across the region this evening with only some scattered cu remaining. Winds will remain gusty through sunset, 10-12 knots. Otherwise light winds expected overnight, strengthening again Thursday morning with gusts up to 20 knots Thursday afternoon. No notable vsby or cig restrictions expected during the TAF period with only a few isolated storms likely again Thursday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing chances for afternoon storms this weekend and into early next week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.