textproduct: Columbia

SYNOPSIS

It'll be warm and breezy at times today ahead of a dry cold front. Near to above normal temperatures are expected through the upcoming week. The next significant chance for rain arrives late Friday or Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Breezy, warm, and dry Sunday on tap as a dry cold front approaches and pushes through the area.

Quiet weather continues across the area. The pressure gradient is tightening up across the area in advance of an approaching cold front, with winds remaining elevated across the area as of this hour. The winds are strongest near the NC border where the gradient is tightest, and generally expect this for most of the night. Not expecting winds to truly get gusty until after sunrise when low-level mixing increases and encourages the stout low-level jet overhead to mix out. A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect through midday as winds should gust over 25 mph over the lakes tonight. Similar gusts are expected across the area tomorrow as this front approaches. Stout southwesterly flow will yield strong warm advection, and highs are expected to be in the upper 70s and lower 80s as a result. The front is forecast to push through the area between 1p and 5p, with dewpoints dropping fast and perhaps our strongest wind gusts as the front passes through. Wind should then decrease as we head into tonight and the surface pressure gradient weakens slowly. Lows overnight are forecast to be in the upper 30s and low 40s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Cooler and very dry conditions on Monday as high pressure passes overhead.

The day begins with northwesterly flow behind the passage of the dry cold front. Winds should become light and variable as surface high pressure passes overhead. While it will be noticeably cooler on Monday, highs are forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s, which is around normal for mid-November. Dewpoints were decreased due to the very dry air mass that will be in place resulting in critically low Min RH values between 15 and 25 percent in the afternoon. Having said that, not expecting the need for fire weather products at this time due to the light winds during the afternoon. Temperatures will likely drop off quickly after sunset due to nearly perfect conditions for radiational cooling. It'll likely be the coldest night of the next seven with forecast lows in the upper 30s to around 40 degrees, with mid-30s possible in normally colder and sheltered locations.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Key message(s):

- A warming trend is expected during the mid-week with near zero chances for rain.

- Temperatures then decrease Friday and into the weekend with the next chance of rain arriving Friday night or Saturday.

Upper ridging will be in control of the weather through at least Friday evening, when the ridge axis is expected to pass overhead. This will combine with high pressure anchored off the coast of the Southeastern US to maintain the ongoing dry conditions with warming temperatures Tuesday through Thursday. PWATs will gradually recover through the week as surface winds shift to the southwest allowing for moisture advection from the gulf. While rain chances remain very low throughout this period, moisture and cloud cover will increase after Wednesday and this will have an impact on high temperatures by Friday. A pattern change is possible Friday night and into the weekend and a storm system is expected to drag a cold front through the region late in the extended, though confidence remains low regarding rainfall potential.

AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR expected through the period.

The forecast is largely on track across the area with LLWS indicated by the CAE VAD. This should be a problem for a couple more hours but once the sun comes up and mixing is established we should lose the LLWS as winds become gusty. Winds should gust between 20-25 knots frequently this afternoon, with winds slowly shifting from southwesterly right now to westerly by late morning and then northwesterly by this evening behind the cold front. We may see a few clouds through the period but overall the dry air in place should keep clouds at bay, with VFR conditions expected to prevail.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions likely continue into next week with dry air in place.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for SCZ016- 018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137. GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for GAZ040- 063>065-077.