textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rain finally ending by this afternoon, then drier conditions through the remainder of the week. Aviation discussion updated for 06z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Periods of rain continue through this morning, then drying begins this afternoon.

- 2. Temperatures just below to near normal are expected the remainder of the week with mostly dry conditions.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Periods of rain continue through this morning, then drying begins this afternoon.

Surface front remains situated just south of the forecast area. Airmass north of this front remains fairly stable. Drier air is slowly attempting to push into the northern counties, with current pwat values running around 1.7 inches. Meanwhile closer to the front across the southern area, pwat values are still around 2.1 inches. Heavier rain chances through early morning will remain across the far southern cwa, with lighter rainfall still expected to occur across the central and northern Midlands of SC. After sunrise, drier air will continue to push slowly in from the north, bringing an end to the rainfall across the northern Midlands and Pee Dee. Remainder of the cwa may still see some lingering light rainfall through late morning before the drying trend begins to kick in by the afternoon.

Key Message 2: Temperatures just below to near normal are expected the remainder of the week with mostly dry conditions.

Pwat values drop to around 0.50 inches by Tuesday as drier surface high pressure builds into the Mid Atlantic. Persistent northeasterly low level flow into the mid week should keep temperatures near to just below normal with dry weather expected. Weak surface ridging is expected to continue into the late week before moisture may gradually uptick toward the end of the forecast period, possibly bringing back rain chances early next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Restrictions to continue through this morning with gradual improvement later in the TAF period.

RA/-RA to continue overnight with MVFR/IFR restrictions expected. Some VSBY reductions may occur in with periods of RA, along with some LIFR CIGS, the latter of which have been briefly noted in the past hour at OGB. Kept TEMPOs for potential LIFR with lower CIGS between 08z-12z at CAE and CUB. Guidance continues to hold on to at least MVFR CIGS through late morning, perhaps into the early afternoon. Improvement then expected late in the day as drier air slowly filters into the area and CIGS lift. VFR conditions should return by mid to late afternoon and continue through the valid TAF period. Winds through the period either calm or light and variable tonight, becoming north-northeasterly to northeasterly at 3-6 kts by late morning into the afternoon. Winds should return to light or calm Monday night.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR with drier conditions to prevail through the remainder of the week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.