textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Key Messages and Aviation discussion updated.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Snow showers continue this evening, coming to an end tonight, with moderate impacts expected to persist through the overnight period.

- 2) Very cold temperatures/wind chills will accompany this snowstorm and bring several bitterly cold nights.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE #1: Snow showers continue this evening, coming to an end tonight, with moderate impacts expected to persist through the overnight period.

Radar imagery this evening continues to depict snow showers across the entire forecast area, with the heaviest returns focused across Chesterfield County. Snow showers will persist this evening with the best chance for significant snowfall accumulations, on the order of 2-4 inches, across the Eastern Midlands. Expect snow to taper off and end from west to east tonight with precipitation likely ending for the entire CWA by daybreak. In terms of impacts, the falling snow and gusty winds will continue to reduce visibility, compounding already poor road conditions. Area traffic cameras show numerous accidents due to the snow creating icy conditions. Travel is not recommended tonight into early Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGE #2: Very cold temperatures/wind chills will bring several bitterly cold nights.

Tonight: Temperatures will continue to fall tonight as a frigid airmass moves into the region. Northerly winds will strengthen overnight causing wind chills to fall into the single digits to near zero degrees. An Extreme Cold Warning is now in effect through 10 am tomorrow morning.

Sunday and Beyond: Temperatures do not recover significantly on Sunday following the snowstorm, meaning snow melt will be limited, especially across the Midlands. Any snow that does melt will refreeze Sunday night. Meanwhile, the existing snow pack will cause temperatures to drop quickly Sunday night. A Cold Weather Advisory may be needed, but like the previous shift, will hold off issuing an additional product to avoid any confusion. A warming trend is then expected to begin on Monday, putting an end to the cold weather threat for the forecast period.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Improvement expected over the next several hours with VFR conditions returning after sunrise this morning.

Restrictions will run the spectrum tonight as a winter storm system continues to move through the region and eventually off to the northeast over the next several hours. CIG/VSBY restrictions, down to LIFR at times, will remain possible through about 08z. As -SN showers gradually wind down and end, VSBYs are generally expected to improve. CIGS will also improve as precip ends, with VFR then expected through the day Sunday. However, winds will be a bit gusty tonight from the north or northwest at 8-12 kts. Some gusts may approach 20 kts, which could cause periods of blowing snow and brief intermittent VSBY reductions. Gusts should diminish for Sunday and skies return to SKC.

Depending upon airport snow removal procedures, runways could remain hazardous through 18z Sunday. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions are expected through at least the first half of the work week. Another system moving through the region could bring restrictions once again, although at this time is appears as this one would be in the form of rainfall.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for SCZ016- 018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137. Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for SCZ016- 018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137. GA...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ040- 063>065-077. Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ040- 063>065-077.