textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. A return to slight above normal temperatures and afternoon scattered convection for the week ahead.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1. A return to slight above normal temperatures and afternoon scattered convection for the week ahead.

For the remainder of the forecast, global ensembles favor broad ridging developing over much of the CONUS next week. With easterly, onshore flow for the first part of the week and deeper SW flow for the latter part, we will likely see PWAT values near or slightly above normal. This pattern supports isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms most days next week with temperatures near or above normal after Monday.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Convection diminishing through 02z, then restrictions associated with stratus and fog late tonight.

Current convection will be pushing south of all taf locations by 02z. Afterwards, lingering debris clouds should gradually clear out as low clouds and fog are expected to develop tonight. MVFR/IFR cigs are possible at the terminals between 06-15z Monday, with the strongest confidence to our southern and eastern terminals. Conditions should gradually improve by midday as ceilings lift with SCT cumulus bases around 3-5 kft. Winds will increase to 6-9 kt generally from the NE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal storm chances continue into the first half of the week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.