textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to key messages. Aviation discussion updated for 00Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Dry weather continues this week with gradually warming temperatures through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Dry weather continues this week with gradually warming temperatures through Saturday. Forecast thinking is more or less on track with the extended dry period most likely continuing through the end of the month. Upper ridge will slowly translate east through the week and flatten out by Thursday, while surface high pressure remains anchored over the northeast and ridges south across the eastern seaboard. This will result in slightly warmer temperatures each day with fairly high confidence given very small NBM IQRs through Saturday, so expect a continuation of warm days and cool nights this week. Temperatures should reach above normal values by Friday and Saturday. The pattern starts to show some signs of shifting Sunday into next week, with the next chance of rain returning to the forecast for the first day of November. This may also bring temperatures down a few degrees with the pattern looking a bit more active into the extended.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Shallow river fog possible again Wednesday morning along with low clouds to the east.

Expect light and variable winds with mostly clear skies through the night. ENE winds above the surface will help direct onshore flow into the eastern Carolinas early Wednesday morning. Hi-Res models continue to indicate stratus development into the Pee Dee by 12Z. Although models keep restrictions east of our TAF sites, it is possible that the stratus will roll into CAE/CUB or OGB resulting in a brief period of IFR/MVFR ceiling restrictions around 12Z to 14Z. Although temperatures will not drop as low as the previous night we may still see fog along creek and river valleys again. Given that no TAF sites experienced restrictions the previous night we have elected to continue a persistence forecast of VFR given better mixing tonight.

After 14 or 15Z, expect VFR conditions with winds picking up to around 6-10 kts by the late morning with a few gusts to 15-18 kts possible through the end of the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant aviation concerns through the week. A few to scattered high VFR clouds may move in through Thursday due to onshore flow, but otherwise remaining dry.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.