textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Key Message 1 and Aviation Update

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) A few snow showers possible this afternoon but no impacts expected.

- 2) Temperatures near to below average through the weekend followed by a significant warmup next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE #1: A few snow showers possible this afternoon but no impacts expected.

A few snow showers continue to dive out of the Upstate this afternoon behind the 850mb trough axis, sitting under the steep mid-level lapse rates of the 500mb trough. Both moisture and forcing is limited, so snowfall rates are mediocre at best. But this will likely bring some flurries to the Midlands this afternoon, possible down to the I-20 corridor. While temps are cold enough to support snow, there are still above freezing so no impacts are expected given the very limited snowfall rates.

KEY MESSAGE #2: Temperatures near to below average through the weekend followed by a significant warmup next week.

No notable changes in the forecast thinking over the longer term period. Temperatures will struggle to climb this afternoon, if at all, with forecast highs mostly in the 30s. Beyond today, expect temperatures to be near to below average through the weekend. Upper ridging late this weekend will begin to build over the central US with blended guidance favoring above well normal temperatures next week; temps 10-15 degrees above average are likely with daytime highs possibly getting into the 70's by late next week.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

MVFR/IFR restrictions persist into this evening, then gradual improvement to CIGS overnight.

Lingering low level moisture with drier air aloft has resulted in wedge-like conditions, with widespread low clouds below 1000 feet. Occasional drizzle has also been reducing VSBYS at times, though this has abated some in the last hour or two. These conditions expected to continue for early this afternoon, with improvements expected especially after 20z. While some VSBY restrictions to high- end MVFR are possible overnight, widespread fog is not expected. CIGS should lift to VFR around/about 00z and continue to clear into Friday morning. SFC winds generally NLY today around 5-10 kts, decreasing to light and variable overnight. Winds on Friday WLY around 5-10 kts with a few gusts to around 16 kts possible developing late in the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions tonight with no anticipated aviation concerns through early next week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.