textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast this week remains on track. Aviation discussion updated for 06z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Dry conditions with warming temperatures are expected the first half of the week. Rain chances may enter late in the week into this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry conditions with warming temperatures are expected the first half of the week. Rain chances may enter late in the week into this weekend.

Another cool morning is expected near daybreak with low temperatures in the low to mid 50s, though a few spots into the upper 40s could be possible. A blocking pattern remains in place today with the upper low currently positioned over New England, the ridge across the central CONUS, and the sharp trough currently swinging into CA off the Pacific coast. This pattern will maintain low level northwesterly flow today, keeping dry air in place and bringing temperatures into the low to mid 80s once again. Heading into the mid week, the trough out west slowly drifts eastward, advecting the upper ridge toward the FA, bringing temperatures that should warm back slightly above normal, in the upper 80s to near 90F. As this occurs, low level flow becomes increasingly southerly to southwesterly, bringing deeper moisture back to the Southeast, though dry weather likely persists with minimal forcing. As the trough shifts into the central CONUS and the ridge centers off the Southeast Coast, deep southerly flow should advect plentiful moisture into the CWA with LREF probabilities for PWAT's over 1.75" reaching 60-80% into Saturday. Weak shortwave energy could aid in sparking diurnal rain/storms chances starting Friday, continuing into the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions will continue through the valid TAF period.

Outside of a few passing high cirrus, expect SKC to continue. High pressure and a very dry airmass will promote VFR conditions through the next 24 hours at all TAF sites. Winds will generally be light and variable, with perhaps some NW-NE winds this afternoon around 6 kts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Mostly VFR in the extended with increasing moisture by the end of the week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.