textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Key Message 1 to remove morning verbiage and made minor edits elsewhere. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. A more typical summer-like pattern expected this week, with increasing heat and humidity this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: A more typical summer-like pattern expected this week, with increasing heat and humidity this weekend.

The upper trough axis is exiting the forecast area this afternoon, contributing to the development of severe thunderstorms across North Carolina and the Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, dry conditions are ongoing across our forecast area under partly to mostly sunny skies. CAMs continue to suggest isolated shower or thunderstorm development later today across the Northern Midlands but confidence is low and the severe weather is not expected. Elsewhere, warm, humid, and breezy conditions will persist this afternoon with forecast highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Brief drying is expected on Wednesday as northwest flow brings in cooler and drier weather. By the latter half of the week, a weakness developing in the upper trough splits the ridge over the Desert Southwest and western Atlantic, supporting a return of diurnal convection. Temperatures will also trend upward into this weekend, as ridging restrengthens and dominates on Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures are expected to push into the 90s with some global models hinting at upper 90s early next week. Heat indices could also surpass the 100 degree mark. While details remain uncertain, heat headlines may become necessary this weekend for portions of the area depending on how much afternoon mixing occurs.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions likely through the TAF period.

Drier air aloft is steadily filling in across the area ahead of a surface front that will arrive this evening. With drier air aloft, only some typical summer cu around 4-5k feet are expected this afternoon. Any lingering showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain northeast of the TAF sites this afternoon & evening before the front moves through. Gusty west winds up to 25 knots will continue ahead of the front as well, with winds then shifting out of the north overnight into Wednesday. Dry air behind the front will prevent any cig, vsby, or rain related restrictions.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Wednesday will be dry but for the remainder of the week, diurnally-driven widely scattered convection is expected.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.