textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect into this evening.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Cool and breezy conditions are expected again today with a Lake Wind Advisory in effect through this evening. Temperatures gradually warm to near normal by the mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Cool and breezy conditions are expected again today with a Lake Wind Advisory in effect through this evening. Temperatures gradually warm to near normal by the mid to late week.

Clear skies are seen across the region early this morning with high pressure continuing to ridge down into the FA. A coastal low continues to develop off the coast as well as the 500mb low shifts off the NC coast. Overall, this is keeping persistent northerly to northeasterly flow with a 30-40 kt LLJ noted in the KCAE VAD profile. Continuing CAA should let morning lows start in the low to mid 40s before winds pick up as deeper mixing ensues by 14-16z. This should allow some of the robust LLJ to mix down with gusts up to 25- 30 mph possible, continuing into the afternoon and early evening. Due to this, a Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM. Besides breezy conditions, high temperatures today are expected to once again be below normal, in the mid to upper 60s. Another chilly night looks to be in store tonight as lows bottom out in the low to mid 40s again.

Heading into the rest of the work week, minimal change in the forecast is seen. Reinforcing high pressure should build back in, possibly with brief shortwave ridging into the mid to late week. This pattern should keep much drier air in place (PWAT's under 0.50"), but MOS/NBM and ensemble guidance suggests temperatures should gradually reach closer to normal by the mid to late week. At this time, there is little confidence in any meaningful rain even into next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Gusty winds around 25 kts today.

The KCAE VAD wind profile shows 40 to 50 kt winds at at 2000 ft AGL. Surface winds will strengthen shortly as the lower levels begin to mix the LLJ down. LLWS criteria should end around or shortly after 12Z as gusts develop at the surface from 20 to 25 kts.

Expect NE winds today from 10 to 15 kts with gusts around 25 kts which will continue through the afternoon. Gusts should subside this evening with winds expected to stay up around 8 to 10 kts through tonight. Skies should remain clear or mostly clear with dry air over the region. No fog/stratus concerns given the drier air in place and a mixed boundary layer.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Probability of restrictions through the extended period is low.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ016-018- 020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137. GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ040- 063>065-077.