textproduct: Columbia
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Aviation discussion updated for 12Z forecast.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. Increased fire weather concerns through mid week.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Increased fire weather concerns through mid week.
Center of high pressure is moving into the Great Lakes this morning, ridging into the southeastern US. Winds will likely be relatively light early but with an increasing pressure gradient today with an approaching cold front, expect increasing winds as well. While winds remain a bit marginal for increased fire danger, high confidence in relative humidity dropping below 30 percent. As a result, have issued a Fire Danger Statement for today. A cold front will move through tonight into Wednesday morning, leading to increasing northeasterly winds, especially south of I-20 where blended probability of max gusts greater than 30 mph Wednesday is above 50 percent. Fire danger will continue to be elevated Wednesday and will need to monitor model trends for the potential need for a Red Flag Warning, especially south of I-20. As high pressure shifts offshore Thursday, low level onshore flow will likely lead to a moisture increase, limiting fire concerns, although sometimes models tend to be a bit too quick with moisture return so not out of the question of some lingering fire danger into Thursday.
Otherwise, no impactful weather expected through the period with little to no chances for rain and temperatures rising to near average by the end of the week, then well above average this weekend into early next week.
AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR Conditions Continue....
SCT to BKN high level cloudiness continues to stream through the region early this morning. Expect clouds to gradually decrease in coverage during the period. Winds are currently light and variable but will once again increase after daybreak when the nocturnal inversion breaks. Northeasterly winds may gust to around 20 knots through the day before diminishing this evening. A cold front will move through tonight into Wednesday morning, leading to increasing northeasterly winds near the end of the current TAF period.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The chance of restrictions is low through the end of the week.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None. GA...None.
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