textproduct: Columbia
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Removed mention of the tonight period from Key Message 1. Aviation discussion updated for 12Z TAF issuance.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue into the upcoming week, with localized flash flooding possible through Tuesday.
DISCUSSION
Key Message 1: Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue into the upcoming week, with localized flash flooding possible through Tuesday.
The overall forecast hasn't changed too much. Southwest flow is expected to persist at least through the first half of the week with the synoptic pattern favoring ridging offshore and an upper low over the lower Mississippi Valley. NAEFS mean indicates PWATs remain around or above the 99th percentile through Tuesday, generally around 2". Heavy rain and isolated flash flooding will be possible with afternoon convection today and Tuesday. However, a strong trough digging south from the Pacific Northwest strengthens the ridging over our area which would limit forcing, particularly on Tuesday, limiting the flash flood threat for that day compared to previous forecasts. With moisture so high and moderate destabilization each afternoon, scattered storms are anticipated to develop. Storm coverage Wednesday through the end of the week may be a bit more limited as southwest flow weakens but isolated diurnal showers and storms remain possible.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR to IFR Ceilings Possible This Morning....
Low clouds have settled in over most of the terminals early this morning, with all sites except OGB reporting periods of IFR to MVFR ceilings. A batch of showers is already moving near CAE/CUB as well, so have added a TEMPO group for this activity. Expect a return to VFR ceilings by midday. Latest guidance suggests that showers will develop earlier than previous days with scattered thunderstorms expected during the afternoon and evening hours. Activity should wind down this evening with a return to lowered ceilings tonight. Winds outside of thunderstorms remain southerly at or under 10 knots.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Abundant low level moisture will bring more rounds of morning restrictions from fog and/or low clouds. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible each day.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None. GA...None.
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