textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Temperatures this morning may start a bit cooler than previously forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Dry weather continues the remainder of this week with temperatures that warm to near normal by the mid week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Dry weather continues the remainder of this week with temperatures that warm to near normal by the mid week.

The main note over the coming hours toward daybreak is that nearly ideal radiational cooling conditions have setup with most locations seeing calm conditions or light and variable winds under clear skies. This has allowed temperatures to quickly drop into the low to mid 40s, but these may continue to fall a few degrees lower into the upper 30s to lower 40s by daybreak.

After another chilly morning, more of the same expected the remainder of the week. There is fairly high confidence across deterministic and ensemble guidance in the synoptic evolution over the next 4-6 days. Temperatures gradually warm toward the mid to upper 70s over the coming days with high pressure building back in but, by the weekend, a deep trough is expected to dig in across the western CONUS. This should amplify the downstream features, being the ridge over the central part of the country and troughing across the east. Increased troughing this weekend should yield temperatures perhaps slightly below normal, but there is high confidence in the airmass remaining quite moisture-starved with LREF probabilities for dewpoints reaching above 50F below 20% majority of the forecast period. Greater uncertainty in the current pattern does not enter until early next week, but even then, chances for deeper moisture to advect into the region remains low.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions likely through the next 24 hours.

Strong high pressure over the region will keep northerly flow in place with clear skies. Light winds early this morning will pick back up around 7 to 10 knots after 15z from the north to northeast. These winds will continue through the afternoon, becoming light and variable around sunset. We cannot totally rule out a few gusts near 16 kts from 15z-19z but they should be intermittent. Fog not expected to be a concern given the very dry air mass in place.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Significant aviation concerns unlikely through Saturday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.