textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Very little change in the forecast outlook over the next several days. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Dry conditions persist into next week with temperatures initially near normal warming back above normal by the mid week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry conditions persist into next week with temperatures initially near normal warming back above normal by the mid week.

Little has changed in the outlook through at least the mid week. The upper low and associated Nor'easter is expected to continue to meandering across New England tonight with low level northwesterly flow keeping dry air in place. This should keep mainly clear skies over the area, bringing morning lows to the lower to potentially mid 50s near daybreak. It wouldn't be too surprising to see some locations dropping into the upper 40s once again Monday morning. Afternoon temperatures tomorrow warm to around normal, in the low to mid 80s. Heading through the work week, a blocking pattern likely persists through at least Tuesday as a strong trough pushes into the SW CONUS, interacting with remnant moisture from what is currently Hurricane Polo. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that ridging should gradually shift overhead with associated warming temperatures during the mid week where temperatures back into the upper 80s to lower 90s will be possible. In general, this pattern favors continued mostly dry conditions, though deeper moisture is forecast to gradually work back toward the region during the mid to late week with PWAT's potentially exceeding 1". By the late week and into the start of the weekend, the ridge and associated surface high may become increasingly suppressed as the SW CONUS trough pushes eastward, possibly bringing back shower/storm chances.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions will continue through the valid TAF period.

Outside of a few passing high cirrus today, expect SKC. High pressure and a very dry airmass will promote VFR conditions through the next 24 hours at all TAF sites. West-northwest to northwest winds at 5 to 10 kts this afternoon will return to light and variable this evening into tonight, continuing into Monday morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... VFR conditions expected through the extended period.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.