textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Only minor changes made to key message. Aviation updated for 06z issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. High confidence in above normal temperatures as we get into next week. Rain chances arrive by the middle to end of next week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: High confidence in above normal temperatures as we get into next week. Rain chances arrive by the middle to end of next week.

Troughing and associated surface high pressure is expected to continue translating eastward across the east coast and out into the Atlantic. We should have one more relatively cool day today, with high up around 80F for most people. It'll be a pleasant 80F as dewpoints remain quite low as the dry surface high shifts off shore. The weather will quickly begin to change and resemble our typical late Spring warm up as we head into this weekend and next week. A deep trough is forecast to dig and overspread the central US over the coming days, amplifying the downstream pattern across the eastern US. Ensemble guidance shows heights quickly rising to ~588dm, which is 90-95th percentile for this time of year. Coinciding with this is an expected increase in southeasterly flow as our surface high from today sets up across the western Atlantic as a Bermuda high. Aside from a brief shot of moisture advection in the CSRA on Sunday, chances of rain appear low until the middle of next week (at the earliest). Guidance across the board continues to show heights approaching the 95-98th percentile Mon-Tues. Highs Sun- Wed are forecast to be in the low-mid 90s each afternoon. With the high to our east & persistent onshore flow, surface moisture will be higher than it has been lately but not enough to really yield high precip chances. A front is forecast to approach but Wednesday night and Thursday, with chances for showers/storms increasing as a result. Overall, though, the above normal temps are forecast to be most impactful weather item over the next week.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR Conditions the next 24 hours.

Northeasterly winds will remain between 5-10 kts through about 08z, then generally drop to around 5 kts after 08z. Winds will remain out of the northeast until 18z, then turn more out of the west by the afternoon. Light and variable winds then towards sunset. Skies remaining mostly clear, with only some very thin cirrus moving through the region. With the dry airmass and expected winds, fog is not expected.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture increases Sunday and early next week which may lead to early morning fog or stratus.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.