textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. A more typical summer-like pattern returns this weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: A more typical summer-like pattern returns this weekend into next week.

Afternoon satellite imagery shows mainly cirriform clouds passing through the Midlands, with some thicker cloudiness approaching the CSRA. A few showers are starting to develop south of Midville, Georgia so have maintained a Slight Chance PoP for the next six hours across southern Burke County. Rain is not likely elsewhere today. Temperatures are on track to reach the upper 80s to around 90 degrees but with drier air in place, this should be a pleasant day to be outside.

Expect low-level moisture to creep back into the forecast area on Sunday. This should result in a more typical summer day with higher heat and humidity. Despite the higher PWATs, the chance for rain remains low right now with some a brief window for convection across the far Southeastern Midlands in the Holly Hill area. Overall, another dry day is favored for most locations.

The upcoming work week is expected to feature continued summer- like weather conditions. Each day will be hot and humid with daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The Day 3 SPC SWO placed the northwestern half of the CWA in a Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather on Monday as a cold front approaches the FA. Should organized convection develop, damaging wind gusts would be the primary hazard.

Late next week, a stronger upper-level ridge is forecast to build over the Four Corners, promoting broader troughing across the eastern CONUS. This pattern may support a more organized weather system affecting the area, though confidence remains low regarding timing and evolution.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions likely to continue through the TAF period.

Surface front has pushed south of all taf locations, with east/ northeasterly winds bringing some drier air into the region. This has kept most mid and lower clouds confined outside of our forecast area today, with mainly just some thin scattered to broken cirrus passing through the area. Being a little closer to some deeper moisture, the CSRA sites of ags/dnl may see some scattered mid-level cumulus through the afternoon and into the overnight. Guidance continues to show vfr conditions prevailing at all sites, which seems reasonable given the dry low-level air in place. Winds will turn more light and variable after sunset and into Sunday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnally driven isolated convection to return Sunday afternoon, mainly over the CSRA. Better rain chances and coverage possible on Monday ahead of another approaching front. After that, a return to more summer-like isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms expected, with restrictions possible with any activity through the period.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.