textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Dewpoints were lowered with this forecast package. Otherwise, the forecast is on track. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Cooler but dry conditions are expected this weekend. Temperatures gradually return to near to above normal values next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Cooler but dry conditions are expected this weekend. Temperatures gradually return to near to above normal values next week.

Satellite imagery at midday shows clear skies across the FA as dry air continues to filter in from the north. Dewpoints were lowered based on recently observed trends. The taste of autumn begins today as highs struggle to reach the 70s despite the abundant sunshine. Clear skies and continued CAA should also result in another chilly night with forecast lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Normally cold locations will likely fall well into the 40s by daybreak Saturday.

Over the weekend the upper trough in control of our weather fully cuts off, with a potent Nor'easter meandering south of New England, and a blocking pattern setting up with a ridge over the Central CONUS. In terms of sensible weather, dry conditions likely persist with PWAT's well under 1". Temperatures gradually warm toward the lower to mid 80s on Sunday after topping out around 80 degrees on Saturday. Overall, a mild and pleasant weekend appears to be in store.

Next week, the synoptic pattern gets more murky as the remnants/moisture of what is currently Hurricane Polo likely gets picked up in the prevailing flow and may interact with a sharp shortwave digging into southern CA/the Four Corners region during the early to mid week. While the exact evolution of the upper level pattern is uncertain, ensemble guidance and global models indicate at least a period of ridging is likely ahead of the aforementioned trough, bringing back temperatures near to above normal for the week.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals through the valid TAF period.

Satellite imagery this afternoon is showing clear or mostly clear skies across the Midlands and CSRA. Drier air will continue to push into the region through the day, ensuring SKC at all terminals. Surface winds will continue to be N-NE with a few gusts of 15-20 kts at times today. Added a TEMPO group to DNL for wind gusts due to observed trends. Winds then decouple this evening, becoming light and variable to calm for the overnight period. Winds will pick up between 4-8 kts by tomorrow afternoon with a N-NW direction.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions expected through the extended period.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.