textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A few light showers are possible today in the CSRA. Aviation updated for 12z issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Outside of a few showers today, rain chances remain low through midweek before a potentially more active pattern for late week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Outside of a few showers today, rain chances remain low through midweek before a potentially more active pattern for late week.

Currently, an upper shortwave is moving through the Gulf states. A few light showers have developed in response to this shortwave and are moving to the northeast. Meanwhile, a surface high continues to edge its way into the region, keeping relatively dry air in place despite the cloud cover. The rain showers are struggling to overcome the dry air over the forecast area at the moment, but observations indicate moistening just west of the area. Chances for light showers will remain across the CSRA through late morning as additional activity moves near the area. Locations outside of the CSRA are are expected to remain dry today.

This shortwave is forecast to move eastward and flatten out, allowing for dry days through midweek. Out west, a deeper trough moving into the western CONUS is forecast to eject eastward through most of the week, slowing as it reaches the central CONUS. Additionally, a surface low and attendant front are forecast to develop in response to the trough. As a result, increased moisture is anticipated to move into the area, leading to higher chances for showers and thunderstorms for mid to late week. That said, there remains noticeable differences between models and model runs, suggesting higher uncertainty in details of the evolution of the system as it moves toward the area.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF forecast period.

Widespread cirrus remains across the region. Low-levels may see some moistening as moisture from aloft falls into it this morning, especially in the CSRA. Some light sprinkles/rain did fall overnight, although nothing measurable. Additional rain moving up from the southern CSRA may impact ags/dnl later this morning, but once again it would be light, and vfr conditions would continue even with the light rain. Have included a tempo for 6sm -ra, although it would be more like a sprinkle or two. Activity through the day should have little impact in the Midlands, so those taf locations should remain vfr and dry.

Winds should picking up to around 10 knots after sunrise with intermittent gusts up to 20 knots into the afternoon. With the winds and clouds, fog will not be an issue this morning. Gusts diminish this evening, with sustained winds back down to around 5 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low level moisture increases early next week and may lead to ceiling restrictions on Tuesday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.