textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Little change in the overall forecast. Aviation discussion updated for the 00z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Elevated fire weather concerns and periodic smoke impacts will persist through tonight.

- 2. Rain chances increase this weekend into early next week, but meaningful drought relief remains unlikely.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Elevated fire weather concerns and periodic smoke impacts will persist through tonight.

Despite a few afternoon showers associated with a passing shortwave and daytime heating within a weakly unstable environment, a dry air mass remains in place across the region with dewpoints in the 40s and lower 50s and RH below 50 percent. This will continue to support increased fire concerns given the extensive drought conditions and active wildfires across the region. We also may continue to see smoke impacts from fires to the south as the HRRR smoke guidance indicates that smoke could linger in the region this evening. The SC Forestry Commission continues a Burn Ban until further notice.

Key Message 2: Rain chances increase this weekend into early next week, but meaningful drought relief remains uncertain.

A more unsettled pattern is expected to develop over the next 2-5 days with several chances for rain in the forecast. Cumulus clouds have started to push into the CWA this afternoon. While a few spotty showers are developing in our surrounding areas, it is likely too dry for much if any precip to make it to the ground. Moisture will begin to rebound this evening and overnight. Chances of a possible shower will be better closer to the coast where PW values will increase around 1" this afternoon. A cold front is forecast to move through late Saturday and into Sunday as the upper ridge breaks down and higher chances chances for showers arrive. There will be some support for potential scattered thunderstorms as well, but no significant severe strom chance as storm organization should be kept to a minimum. Isolated chances for additional showers continue Sunday and Monday mainly for the eastern portion of the forecast area as high pressure shifts over the eastern seaboard. Another front likely approaches Tuesday with some severe potential as instability increases, and a more robust shortwave moves over the area on Wednesday. This may lead to some slightly higher rainfall amounts, but particularly for next week it is too soon to start talking about specific accumulations. Even if we receive some rain and brief relief with all of these systems, the drought is unlikely to be significantly reduced anytime soon. The latest runs of the GEFS and ECENS continue to show very low chances, less than 20%, for 7-day rainfall totals over 1". So, expecting the severe to extreme drought to persist for the foreseeable future.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through Saturday morning, showers- storms possible Saturday afternoon and evening.

Any lingering isolated showers have dissipated as of 00z, with light southwest winds expected to continue overnight into Saturday morning. Some mid-level strato-cu is the only cloud deck of note through Saturday morning. Southwest-west winds will strengthen late morning and into the afternoon on Saturday ahead of a weak front that will bring scattered showers-storms across the area. Confidence is not high in timing or coverage currently, so only left vcsh in the TAF's for now. But eventually a tempo group of showers and/or storms Saturday, between 19z and 03z will likely be needed.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Some periodic vsby and cig restrictions are possible over the next week with a more unsettled pattern and chances for rain Sunday and Tuesday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.