textproduct: Columbia

SYNOPSIS

Expect above normal temperatures today with increasing cloudiness ahead of developing low pressure to the west. Widespread rain will spread into the region on Friday night. Showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms, will continue Saturday as the low pressure system works across the area. Expect dry weather for Sunday through the extended with warming temperatures.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Tranquil weather tonight as high clouds stream into the area.

- A warmer day expected for Friday despite increasing cloudiness.

- Mostly cloudy Friday night with rain arriving towards daybreak.

Skies are mostly clear this evening as the first high clouds start streaming into the region. Light winds and mainly clear skies allow temperatures to fall into the mid-30s to lower 40s before holding steady towards daybreak as cloud cover and WAA increases. An area of low pressure currently organizing over Northern Texas will move east today towards the FA. Expect clouds to increase during the day while gradually lowering and thickening in advance of this system. Southwesterly flow allows temperatures to warm above seasonal values with highs generally in the lower 60s. The rain will likely hold off until after midnight tonight, with chances increasing quickly towards daybreak. Low temperatures Friday night will be in the mid to upper 40s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Widespread rain expected through at least the afternoon hours Saturday with isolated thunderstorms possible.

- Drier conditions settle in on Sunday with near average temperatures.

Saturday and Saturday Night: At the start of the period, widespread rain will be spreading across the FA as a developing surface low nears along with a fairly robust mid level shortwave from the west. PWAT's should surge to near 1.25" as strong moisture transport from a southwesterly 25-40 kt LLJ moves overhead. As the surface low develops, a weak warm front is expected to be draped roughly from Augusta, up to the Columbia Metro and then off to the east near Sumter County. This feature may aid in bringing periods of moderate rainfall through the morning and afternoon hours, especially as greater upper support from the shortwave approaches. There remains some inconsistency in high-res guidance on the exact evolution of the warm front into the afternoon hours and thus the limited warm sector that develops south of it and ahead of a weak trailing cold front associated with the surface low. In general, soundings indicate around 400-800 J/kg of MUCAPE could develop toward the CSRA and southeastern Midlands with modest effective shear on the order of 35-45 kts, though lapse rates remain fairly weak. Thus, while the probability of severe weather is low, convective activity could be possible during the afternoon and into the early evening where a storm or two with gusty winds and heavy rain cannot be ruled out.

Overall, there remains fairly high confidence in a widespread 0.50- 1" of rainfall with this event but spots where convection develops could see up to around 1.50" as indicated in recent high-res runs. The surface low and mid level shortwave likely clear the area during the evening hours with rain chances diminishing and mostly dry conditions making a return by the overnight period.

Sunday and Sunday Night: Weak high pressure begins to fill into the region through the day Sunday with low level flow turning out of the north. This should quickly drop PWAT's to under 0.50" through the day with fairly benign weather expected. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to be right around average, in the mid to upper 50s, before overnight lows return back to the mid to upper 30s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Key message(s):

- Dry conditions likely prevail with a warming trend through the week.

There remains solid agreement amongst ensemble guidance and global models that at the start of the week, weak surface high pressure will hang onto the region with upper ridging dominating over the central US, slowly sliding over the FA through the mid week period. This should bring dry conditions with near average temperatures that begin to rise above average (possibly as much as 10-15 degrees above average) by the midweek and toward the late week as ridging likely persists. Troughing is expected to begin digging into the western US by the end of the period, but continuing dry conditions seem more likely than not as this time.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR Conditions Continue....

Skies are mainly clear at the terminals tonight as high clouds begin to move in. Expect clouds to lower and thicken through the TAF period but they will not cause any restrictions. Light and variable winds tonight may be gusty at times in the afternoon before diminishing once again after sunset. Restrictions become more likely just beyond the current TAF period as rain approaches from the west. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely to develop late Friday Night into Saturday as a storm system moves through the region. No significant aviation impacts are currently expected during the Sunday to Tuesday period.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.