textproduct: Columbia

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Confidence in rainfall on Friday and Saturday is increasing.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Increasing chances for widespread rain Friday and Saturday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Increasing chances for widespread rain Friday and Saturday.

Upper ridging gives way to broad troughing over the next few days. Then global ensembles favor a more amplified pattern for Friday and Saturday as a shortwave digs into the Great Lakes region. This favors deep SW flow over the Southeast on Friday and Saturday with a surface low developing along a baroclinic zone near the forecast area. Enhanced surface convergence and increasing PWAT values to near or above 2 inches favors widespread showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday. With higher than normal deep layer shear for the season, and a conditionally unstable air mass, organized storms will be possible. Steep lapse rates and height falls could support damaging winds and small hail on Friday afternoon, especially in the eastern Midlands where moisture will be deeper. Drier air should begin to work in from the west on Saturday. We may see showers/storms ongoing Saturday morning but the bulk of the activity should shift to the east through the day.

Otherwise, it will be warmer than normal today and Thursday but with drier air over the region and weaker ridging no heat thresholds should be met. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through Thursday but any damaging wind threat will be isolated as typical for the season. Cooler weather is likely next week with temperatures closer to normal.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

A single thunderstorm did actually develop earlier this evening near Orangeburg, missing the airport by a couple of miles. It has completed the life cycle of a single-cell thunderstorm now. Quiet weather will continue through the period. Some isolated showers may develop in the coastal plain tomorrow south of Orangeburg where the boundary will remain but it seems somewhat unlikely that these push towards the TAF sites. VFR is expected.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal chances for thunderstorms increase through the week, peaking this weekend.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.

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