textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Warm temperatures expected on Sunday followed by cooler temps early next week. Significant warm up expect late next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Beneficial rainfall continues across the eastern half of the forecast area today with periods of moderate to heavy rain possible.

2. Warm and dry weather expected over the weekend with a significant warm up late next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE #1: Beneficial rainfall continues across the eastern half of the forecast area today with periods of moderate to heavy rain possible.

Regional radar showing a swath of moderate rainfall across north central AL/GA associated with 850mb moisture convergence ahead of an eastward moving shortwave trough. Initial wave of steady rain is moving out of the southeastern Midlands but over the next couple of hours this area of rain to the west should move back into the CSRA. PWAT values remain high around 1.2-1.3 inches and will support the possibility of moderate to heavy rain as it moves through. A frontal boundary currently located across central NC and into northern GA/AL will gradually shift southward through the day today and focus the higher rainfall amounts generally south of the I-20 corridor. Additional rainfall today could be around a half inch to an inch across the CSRA and southeastern Midlands. Due to the existing drought conditions and high flash flood guidance values, do not expect flooding to be an issue but some localized nuisance flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas cannot be ruled out if and extended period of moderate to heavy rain materializes. Rain should diminish from west to east through the day ending by late afternoon across the region.

KEY MESSAGE #2: Warm and dry weather expected over the weekend with a significant warm up late next week.

Typical of Spring, our temperatures will be fluctuating over the next several days with our first warm up again occurring on Sunday in the wake of this frontal boundary pushing through the region tonight with westerly 500mb flow developing over the weekend as the slow moving upper trough shifts offshore and positive 850mb temperature anomalies develop across the forecast area. High temperatures are expected to rise back into the 70s with the 50th percentile in the mid to upper 70s.

Another frontal boundary will push through the area Sunday night and bring a couple of cooler near normal temperature days Mon/Tue but by mid week a deep upper level trough will move into the Plains states resulting in downstream upper ridging over the forecast area. This will combine with surface high pressure centered over the western Atlantic and southerly low level flow accompanied by a positive EFI signal for above normal temperatures and 850mb temp anomalies of 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Temperatures by Thursday into the end of the week should be well back into the 70s and possibly some near 80 degree readings.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Restrictions are expected for much of this period with low level moisture remaining in place.

Widespread rain associated with a shortwave will continue to impact the area early Friday morning. This rain has not been heavy enough for the past several hours to cause visibility restrictions at the terminals but will likely increase in intensity over the next several hours based on obs upstream, leading to MVFR to IFR visibilities through much of the morning, tapering off into Friday afternoon. Ceilings remain more uncertain as higher resolution guidance indicates they will likely bounce around with limited confidence in predominant IFR ceilings. Higher confidence in MVFR ceilings after the rain pushes eastward and low level moisture continues to linger. While there will be some improvement this afternoon, it is likely that ceiling restrictions remain through the day at all the terminals. Blended guidance continues to favor widespread IFR restrictions developing tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Additional widespread restrictions expected overnight Friday. Some improvement back to vfr possible on Saturday. Moisture increases Monday into Monday night with additional restrictions possible.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.