textproduct: Columbia
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAFs.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. Dry weather continues into this weekend with near normal daytime temperatures.
DISCUSSION
Key Message 1: Dry weather continues into this weekend with near normal daytime temperatures.
No notable changes are expected to the overall pattern across the region into the middle of next week. An upper- level blocking pattern continues to dominate bringing dry and seasonal conditions. Temperatures aloft have cooled slightly today and into this weekend resulting in max temps a bit lower than what we saw earlier in the week, with highs reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s. The pressure gradient will begin to quickly tighten tonight as a strong high pressure over New England dives into the southeast and a low pressure system begins to organize just east of the Bahamas. This will result in an uptick in winds and breezy northeast conditions for much of the weekend. At the moment, wind gusts are expected to remain below Lake Wind Advisory criteria but trends will be monitored. Upper ridging moves slowly east and may break down during the early to middle portion of next week resulting slightly warmer temperatures with forecast highs in the lower to mid 70s. As is typical during this type of dry autumnal pattern, warm days will be followed by cool nights with near to below normal overnight temperatures.
Rain chances start to return to the picture towards the end of next week, but with little in the way of specifics yet.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours.
High pressure and dry air continue in the region. A reinforced high over the Mid-Atlantic will cause gusty northeasterly winds. Calm and clear conditions tonight with increasing winds on Saturday as a strong low- level jet develops tonight. Unfavorable low-level moisture should keep most sites free of fog; although OGB may see imminent shallow patchy fog around sunrise as trends have shown the last two nights. The LLJ should mix out between 14z and 18z Saturday, with bufkit soundings suggesting easterly gusts to 20 knots possible at times late Saturday morning and afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions persist.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A bit more moisture increases this weekend possibly leading to areas of patchy fog; especially nears bodies of water.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None. GA...None.
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