textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 00Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Rain chances continuing to lower this weekend. Uncertainty in the forecast remains next week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Rain chances continuing to lower this weekend. Uncertainty in the forecast remains next week. The near stationary surface ridging across the northeastern CONUS will remain steadfast over the next week or so, with guidance now in good agreement on a relatively dry forecast over the weekend. Breezy northeast winds and dry high pressure will continue through Sunday before a weak and ultimately inconsequential shortwave brings a brief return of moisture to the area, with a couple of showers possible; PoP's however remain less than 20% regionwide. The surface ridging digs across the area for the first half of next week before the pattern becomes more chaotic aloft with numerous shortwaves and trough ejections. There is enough hints within both the physics ensembles and AI suite that we could have some severe potential later next week, but it will be predicated upon these shortwave interactions. Regardless, rain chances increase late next week.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions likely continue through the TAF period.

Expect a few high clouds overnight with light and variable winds. Limited moisture should hinder the threat of fog or stratus. However, similar to the past few nights there could be some shallow ground fog near bodies of water right around sunrise. Ultimately a persistence forecast is favored with VFR conditions likely. Light NE winds continue Friday with speeds from 5 to 8 kts and a few cumulus through the afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The chance of restrictions increases this weekend however model trends have favored lower rain chances and weaker moisture advection.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.