textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Near-record warmth for one more day.

- 2. A strong cold front is forecast to push through the region tonight, ushering in cooler weather this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Near-record warmth for one more day.

Upper ridging lingers over the Southeast for one more day today before a strong cold front moves in. This will keep near record highs this afternoon with temps maxing out in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. A significant cool-down is on the way this weekend, and will be very noticeable!

Key Message 2: A strong cold front is forecast to push through the region tonight, ushering in cooler weather this weekend.

Our first true cold front of the season is on track for this weekend. Guidance has slowed the front down slightly on Friday night over the last couple of days; even still, it is forecast to pass through the area between Friday night and Saturday morning. Cooler air is forecast to rush into the area behind it, with strong gusty winds expected as well. The trough forcing all of this has trended much sharper over the last several days, with guidance now showing some form of the trough cutting off to our east by Saturday night or Sunday. Models remain a bit all over the place still with the evolution and eventual placement of the cutoff low. Regardless, some showers are likely early on Saturday as the front clears, moisture lags a bit behind, and intense synoptic lift allows for some rain to develop. Winds are forecast to be quite breezy on Saturday as well. Latest time/height plots suggest that wind gusts of 30-40 mph are possible during the day as a cool and dry airmass rapidly advects into the area. We will likely need a Lake wind Advisory and bordering on Wind Advisory Criteria, especially if the coastal low develops a bit earlier and closer to the Carolinas. Sunday will be quite chilly with temps in the low 60s and overnight lows in the 40s. From there, a modest warm up closer to normal is expected into next week. Given the presence of northeasterly flow and strong high pressure, cool temps and dry air is expected deep into next week.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions expected outside of some fog-stratus at typical locations. Front arrives late in the period.

Some morning fog-stratus has developed in localized spots this morning with OGB the main impact for TAF sites. This will likely continue through 13z with other sites possibly seeing some mifg issues around sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions likely after 13z. A strong cold front will approach the region on towards the end of the TAF period but an increased pressure gradient will result in southwesterly winds increasing to around 10 knots after 15z with some higher gusts around 17 knots likely by afternoon preceding the front. Winds will shift around 06z as this front moves through with gusty winds continuing overnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...As the front moves through, some morning showers possible Saturday along with gusty winds continuing for much of the weekend.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.