textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. A more typical summer-like pattern returns this weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: A more typical summer-like pattern returns this weekend into next week.

An isolated sprinkle will move through the northern Midlands this next hour. The remainder of tonight will be dry with mainly cirrus overhead that should clear by sunrise Sunday. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s.

Expect low-level moisture to creep back into the forecast area on Sunday. This should result in a more typical summer day with higher heat and humidity. Despite the higher PWATs, the chance for rain remains low right now with some a brief window for convection across the far Southeastern Midlands in the Holly Hill area. Overall, another dry day is favored for most locations.

The upcoming work week is expected to feature continued summer- like weather conditions. Each day will be hot and humid with daily chances for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The Day 3 SPC SWO placed the northwestern half of the CWA in a Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather on Monday as a cold front approaches the FA. Should organized convection develop, damaging wind gusts would be the primary hazard.

Late next week, a stronger upper-level ridge is forecast to build over the Four Corners, promoting broader troughing across the eastern CONUS. This pattern may support a more organized weather system affecting the area, though confidence remains low regarding timing and evolution.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions likely to continue through the TAF period.

Dry air remains in place across the region, with light northeasterly winds keeping most of the low and mid-level clouds outside the area. Cirrus will continue streaming overhead before thinning out a bit on Sunday. Some scattered mid-level clouds may develop near the CSRA through this evening as deeper moistures remains just south of the FA.

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals thanks to the dry low-levels. Winds become light and variable tonight before shifting from the south/southwest on Sunday, increasing to 5-7 kt by midday. Most locations will remain dry, although an isolated afternoon shower cannot be ruled out across the Southeastern Midlands. Probabilities remain too low and localized for inclusion at this time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnally driven isolated convection to return. Better rain chances and coverage possible on Monday ahead of another approaching front. After that, a return to more summer-like isolated to scattered afternoon showers and storms expected, with restrictions possible with any activity through the period.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.