textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered dewpoints for this afternoon. Otherwise, minimal changes. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Dry conditions with above normal temperatures are expected through Friday.

- 2. Rain chances may enter late in the week through this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry conditions with above normal temperatures are expected through Friday.

The forecast remains largely unchanged as upper ridging builds across the Southeast over the next 24 hours. At the surface, high pressure is expected to shift offshore through the middle of the week, allowing for a gradual return of southerly flow and increasing moisture across the Carolinas by Thursday and Friday. Overall, this pattern will support daily high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s through at least Friday, with mostly dry conditions continuing. It is worth noting that moisture will continue building through the week, but deeper advection off the Gulf is not expected until this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain chances may enter late in the week through this weekend.

There remains some uncertainty regarding how quickly a broad trough shifts into the Northeast later this week. At the surface, a cold front will approach the region and could stall nearby before a shortwave eventually pushes the front through by early next week. Long range guidance has continued to trend toward a slower arrival of the front, with the global deterministic models now holding off on widespread rainfall until later on Saturday or even Sunday. In the meantime, isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible starting Friday and into the weekend as LREF probabilities for PWATs greater than 2" reach 60-70% amid subtle forcing. With all that being said, the exact timing this weekend still remains fuzzy regarding the trough, but increasing rain chances should bring temperatures back closer to normal. Ensemble guidance also hints at additional rain chances continuing into early next week, potentially brining another period of damp, cloudy, and cool conditions to the FA.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the 24hr TAF period.

High pressure continues to reside over the region with a dry air mass in place and mostly clear skies, with some fair weather cumulus observed on satellite north of CAE and CUB this afternoon. However, some increase in moisture is expected today and tonight, and guidance shows patchy river valley fog developing Wednesday morning south of I-20, most favoring potential for restrictions at AGS and OGB. Have added TEMPOs for the potential for MVFR conditions between 09z and 13z at these sites. Patchy ground fog cannot be ruled out other terminals Wednesday morning, but should be shallow enough to prevent the development of restrictions. Light and variable winds around 3-5 knots, prevailing southeasterly at times, is expected this afternoon, then falling to calm at times tonight. Light and variable winds around 3-5 kts, becoming prevailing easterly, are expected by Wednesday morning into the afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing chances of predawn stratus/fog later this week with increasing low level moisture. Increasing chances of precipitation this weekend.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.