textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Heat and humidly return with isolated diurnal convection continuing. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Hot and humid conditions continue, with chances for diurnal showers and thunderstorms each day through the period.

DISCUSSION

- 1. Hot and humid conditions continue, with chances for diurnal showers and thunderstorms each day through the period.

Confidence remains high in the pattern over the next seven days. Guidance is in good agreement that the persistent troughing over the past few days will continue to fill and lift northward. Replacing it will be a low amplitude, seasonally strong ridge, centered a bit to our south per LREF means. While heights should be in the ~90th percentile for this time of year, persistently high low-level moisture looks like it will remain in place through at least the middle of next week. This should foster a classically summer pattern, with highs in the low to mid 90s and daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Confidence is high in this as LREF IQR spread is quite low for both 500 hPa heights and PWs through much of the next 7 days. Plus, a strong surface Bermuda high will be entrenched, and this usually offers one or two inverted surface troughs to help focus convection. With PWs of 1.8" to 2.1" through the period, expect typical summertime weather. Strong storms can't be ruled out but will generally be limited to the strongest convection and likely won't be widespread.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions likely this afternoon and evening, outside of scattered storms. IFR cigs and vsby possible Thursday morning.

A typical summer afternoon is unfolding as morning stratus burns off. Some broken strato-cu will last through roughly 20z before typical summer cu lingers into the evening. Some scattered showers and storms are likely this afternoon but confidence is too low for anything beyond a prob30 at this time for any given TAF site. Convection will wind down after 01z. Some overnight and early morning stratus is expected into Thursday with widespread IFR cigs likely. With less widespread rain today compared to Wednesday, fog and extremely low cigs are less likely and guidance models have backed off on the potential. So only including a tempo group for the time being.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal thunderstorms expected this week with early morning restrictions possible.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.