textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Key messages remain the same as the forecast for this week is on track. Aviation discussion updated for the 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Warming temperatures and increasing rainfall chances through the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Warming temperatures and increasing rainfall chances through the week.

Confidence is high in the forecast over the coming days as there is little spread amongst model guidance regarding the pattern evolution. Strong Bermuda high pressure continues to influence the region from the Atlantic, with persistent southerly flow leading to an increase in surface moisture. Aloft, The ridge axis is forecast to remain above the southeastern CONUS through Saturday, amplifying as a deep trough approaches the Great Lakes/Northeastern CONUS by Sunday and Monday. All of this to say, our weather is forecast to be relatively quiet. We are looking at the potential for some diurnally driven showers/storms, with the best chance being Friday as a weak shortwave approaches along with an inverted surface trough approaching as well. As a cold front approaches on Sunday, shower/storm chances should be greater as well. Overall, temps look 10-15F above normal through Sunday, with temps closer to normal early next week behind the front.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions expected during the TAF period.

Some cumulus clouds developing below a mid level cloud deck around 3kft. There remains a low possibility of brief MVFR ceilings developing but probability will lessen heading through the afternoon and into this evening. Winds remain out of the SSW through the afternoon between 5 to 10 knots. Tonight lingering low level moisture in place and while model consensus keeps stratus away from the terminals, there remains a low chance of ceiling restrictions developing, especially at Orangeburg.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Some morning stratus is possible each morning by mid-week as moisture increases. Increasing chances for diurnal thunderstorms by the end of the week and into the weekend.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.