textproduct: Columbia
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Aviation updated for 00z TAFs, otherwise no notable forecast changes this evening.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. Warming temperatures and increasing rainfall chances through the week.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Warming temperatures and increasing rainfall chances through the week.
A week featuring above normal temperatures, increasing surface moisture, and increasing chances for showers/storms is on tap. A strong Bermuda surface high is set up to our east, with increasing southerly flow common today and Tuesday. Dewpoints are only in the 50s this afternoon but are forecast to gradually rise as we go through the week. All of this is in response to forecast troughing across the central Plains and western CONUS through the end of the week, helping to foster anomalous ridging across our area for much of the week. By the end of this week, forecast highs are in the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. This sort of setup is favorable for one or multiple inverted surface troughs to rotate northwestward on the western side of the surface high and should yield scattered showers/storms Thur/Fri/Sat of this week. Severe weather is not expected with this activity & it should yield mostly beneficial rain where storms do occur. Otherwise, the next several days look quiet weather wise.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR conditions expected during the TAF period....
SCT-BKN cloud deck expected to persist through much of the period with moisture trapped beneath a strong subsidence inversion with ceilings varying between 5kft and 12kft. Winds generally expected to be light at 5 knots or less overnight from the south to southeast before picking back up to around 6 to 8 knots after 15z from the south as high pressure offshore continues to influence the region.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Some morning stratus is possible each morning by mid-week as moisture increases but no notable weather systems or widespread impactful restrictions are expected until the weekend.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None. GA...None.
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