textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Fog continues to develop in parts of the forecast area. Otherwise, anomalously high temps continue through midweek ahead of our next system late in the week. Aviation discussion updated for 06z TAFs.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE #1: Areas of fog, locally dense, for early this morning.

The remnant cloud cover from the showers and storms yesterday continue to clear out of the area. Additionally, winds have become generally calm across the area. In areas that have seen the clear skies, fog is beginning to develop, with some locations reporting less than a mile, particularly around the Sumter area. Not a lot of fog is showing up on DOT cameras at this time, however. Winds have become generally calm across the area while dew point depressions are near zero. As skies continue to clear, expect the fog to expand. At this time, there is still some uncertainty in how widespread the denser fog will get due to some elevated winds just above the surface. So, will continue to monitor the need for a Special Weather Statement or Dense Fog Advisory.

KEY MESSAGE #2: Temperatures continue to be well above normal through midweek.

Satellite imagery shows that a cutoff low just offshore of the Baja California is beginning to drift eastward. This low is forecast to continue drifting eastward for the next few days, eventually getting absorbed into a trough moving through the CONUS. In response to this, ridging over the Southeast is expected to intensify, leading to continued warmth through midweek. Wednesday continues to look like the warmest day and we could make a run at record highs for both Columbia (CAE) and Augusta (AGS), which are both 88F. The NAEFS and ECMWF EFI continue to show temps at the top of the charts for the day. The NBM 50th percentile is 89F for AGS and 88F for CAE, so confidence has increased that record highs could be tied or broken. Temps for Thursday have trended upward as the latest guidance has slowed the passing trough and associated frontal boundary.

KEY MESSAGE #3: The next significant storm system arrives late this week, bringing a chance of rain and near normal daytime temperatures.

The aforementioned trough is forecast to move through the region late in the week. As mentioned, the trend of this trough and an associated frontal boundary has trended slower with the latest model runs. There remains some timing differences between the guidance, which leads to some uncertainty of when the system moves through our forecast area. Despite the uncertainty, the most likely timing is during the day Thursday. Timing will also play a factor in whether we see thunderstorms (and their respective strength) with this activity. Temperatures cool off significantly, but actually closer to average, after the boundary passes through the region.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions generally prevail early this morning outside of some patchy fog. However, there is potential for more widespread restrictions to develop over the next few hours in the form of stratus or fog, with the persistence forecast leaning toward at least MVFR ceilings.

Guidance continues to favor restrictions developing after 06z in both CIGS and VSBYs, though there is some question as to the coverage. While FG is on the table, latest CAE VWP indicates a low level jet around 15-20 kts is in play and may keep VSBY restrictions at bay a little longer. Given that stratus has been common over the last several mornings and there really isn't much of an airmass change, expect some MVFR or IFR CIG restrictions to start showing up by around 08z. Guidance then generally favors improving conditions by around 15z this morning, and the rest of the period should be VFR. Light southwesterly winds this morning becoming westerly this afternoon at 5-10 kts and a few gusts approaching 15 kts can't be ruled out. Light and variable winds return tonight into Tuesday morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Overnight stratus will likely remain a threat through midweek. The next good chance of rain is expected Wednesday night and into Thursday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.