textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Few lingering showers and thunderstorms expected through the evening. Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms, some strong, each day.

DISCUSSION

- 1. Diurnal showers and thunderstorms, some strong, each day.

Expect diurnal showers and storms to develop tomorrow afternoon. The HRRR and HREF show lower coverage compared to Thursday but confidence is low given the poor performance shown the past few days. Strong storms will be possible again with forecast soundings supporting a favorable profile for wet microbursts. PWAT values will be around 2 inches again with slow storm movement so heavy rain will be possible once again. This weekend and early next week, upper level ridging is forecast to slowly build. 90th percentile heights will foster highs climbing back into the mid 90s, while PWs in the 1.8-2.0" range will continue to foster daily chances at showers and thunderstorms. The typical threats will likely be associated with these, with storm coverage a bit lower than today for most of the period.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Showers continue to dissipate and move out of the area. Widespread IFR cigs and vsby restrictions possible overnight into Friday morning.

Afternoon convection continues to weaken and move away from the TAF sites. Whats left is light rain showers, mostly in the northern midlands, as some lingering BKN to OVC cloud debris remains across much of the FA. Restrictions are expected to redevelop overnight into Friday morning, with confidence increasing in widespread IFR conditions, particularly following this afternoon and evening's widespread rainfall. Fog and locally lower ceilings are also possible as abundant low-level moisture remains in place. TEMPO groups have been included between 09-13z to account for the greatest restriction potential.

Conditions should improve to VFR by late morning, under SCT to BKN skies through much of the day outside of any afternoon showers and thunderstorms. As has been the case much of this week, PROB30 groups have been maintained through sunset to account for scattered convection. Winds will remain light, generally from the south.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal thunderstorms expected this week with early morning restrictions possible.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.