textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation updated for 00z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Rainfall chances increase through the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Rainfall chances increase through the week.

Deep persistent offshore ridging will dominate the forecast throughout much of the week with consistent southerly component flow into the area. While there is not a really impressive reservoir of moisture for this southerly flow to pull from, we will eventually see PWAT's push back above average by Tuesday- Wednesday along with above typical surface dew points, lasting through the end of the week. Temps will be a similar story, climbing above average by Tuesday and staying there into the weekend. NAEFS outlooks highlight the period well with steadily building heights aloft, near surface temps, and across the board in moisture. The positioning of the ridge axis overhead will keep rain chances somewhat limited, with effectively neutral forcing aloft but diurnal heating will push us close to convective temps each day. So rain chances tick up starting Tuesday and last through the end of the week, but only some scattered showers are expected on a given day. A couple of mid- level troughs start to erode the western flank of the ridge axis by late week and especially over the weekend, so more widespread rainfall becomes possible Saturday-Sunday with a frontal system moving in.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

High pressure continues to reside over the region with generally light southeasterly flow overnight. Some lingering stratocumulus clouds likely to hang around overnight but cigs should remain VFR. Winds gradually shift more southerly by 15z picking up to around 6 to 8 knots through the afternoon as the center of the surface high moves further into the Atlantic. Continue onshore flow above the surface will keep moisture in place supporting SCT-BKN VFR ceilings in a mix of stratocumulus and some mid level clouds. Cannot rule out some possible brief river valley fog at AGS but with intermittent cloud cover confidence is low.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Some morning stratus is possible each morning by midweek as moisture increases but no notable weather systems or widespread impactful restrictions are expected until at least Friday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.