textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation for 00z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Seasonal temperatures with increasing thunderstorm chances as the week goes on.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonal temperatures with increasing thunderstorm chances as the week goes on.

We will remain very much of the dry side of surface boundary draped across the region, with dew points this evening down into the mid-50's and afternoon RH's that bottomed out in the mid 20%'s. As a result, calm weather and with weakening winds expected this evening and overnight into Tuesday.

Moisture will gradually increase from mid to late week, leading to increasing afternoon thunderstorm coverage. LREF probabilities indicate a 50-70 percent chance of PWAT values exceeding 1.75 inches beginning Wednesday. This increase in moisture, combined with upper-level troughing should support greater chances for diurnal convection. Weak shortwaves embedded within the flow may provide additional forcing and further enhance coverage. Thursday currently appears to have the greatest potential for precipitation as the stalled boundary may become reactivated into the FA. However, there remains uncertainty in the evolution and placement of the front. At this time, a significant airmass change appears unlikely, with seasonably warm and humid conditions expected to persist through the period with daily convection chances.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.

A stalled front is seen near our area, primarily near OGB and closer to the coast, keeping any meaningful moisture well to our south and east. Drier air remains anchored across all terminals with only a few low-topped cumulus this evening. Dry conditions and light winds are expected tonight under passing cirrus. Latest HRRR/HREF guidance indicates some low-level moisture could pool near the front, bringing patches of fog, but confidence in impacts mainly at OGB are too low to add into the TAF at the moment.

After 14-16z Tuesday, winds pick back up around 5 kts, out of the northeast with VFR conditions continuing. Similar to Monday, convection is not expected and should be south of the front in the Coastal Plains, but I cannot entirely rule out a stray storm near OGB, however, probabilities remain under 30%.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated storms each afternoon with higher coverage of storms expected by midweek.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.