textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A few showers and thunderstorms may move through the CSRA this morning. Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Rain and storm chances increase for this weekend with a more typical summertime pattern returning next week.

DISCUSSION

- 1. Rain and storm chances increase for this weekend with a more typical summertime pattern returning next week.

An upper trough and embedded closed low over the Midwest along with an associated surface front are expected to gradually move toward the area for the weekend into next week. As the front approaches, it is forecast to slow down as flow aloft becomes more parallel to the front, making it harder for it to push eastward. As they do, deeper moisture increases significantly, especially tonight into Sunday as PWATs are forecast to top the 2" mark. In addition to the increased moisture, a shortwave and prefrontal trough are forecast to move toward the area this afternoon/evening, triggering a round of showers and storms moving from south to north. The highest chances for storms looks to be in the CSRA in the afternoon before pushing into the western and northern Midlands overnight. While the instability isn't all that impressive, it is sufficient to produce some stronger storms. Forecast soundings show an inverted V signature, indicating gusty winds are possible. Some of the hi- res guidance has also suggested a line of storms could develop and move through the CSRA late in the afternoon, which will need to be watched.With PWATs being over 2", locally heavy rain is also possible with this initial round.

Another shortwave over northern Florida is forecast to eject northeastward, bringing another round of showers and storms for Sunday. As of now, the highest chances for activity looks to be in the lower CSRA/eastern Midlands as the shortwave is anticipated to move near the coast. Similar to today, locally heavy rain is possible for Sunday due to the high PWAT values remaining in place. A few stronger storms are possible again, with gusty winds being the main threat with any thunderstorms that develop.

After the weekend, more typical diurnally driven activity is anticipated through mid-week as residual moisture hangs around the area.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions with intermittent MVFR/IFR cigs through 14z, then more restrictions expected this afternoon into tonight as SHRA/TSRA move through the region.

Moisture will continue to increase through today with southeasterly low level flow, and this has resulted in some patchy MVFR/IFR CIG restrictions at the terminals. An area of -SHRA/-TSRA is currently moving through east-central GA and may affect the AGS/DNL terminals over the next 1-3 hours. Restrictions should ease for a period of time late this morning into this afternoon, then return particularly after 21z with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, so continuing the PROB30 group 20z-02z. Increasing confidence in restrictions this evening and overnight with abundant moisture in place with MVFR and possible IFR cigs expected and lingering showers. Winds generally light from the southeast increasing to around 6 to 7 knots this afternoon and possibly more southerly.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Rain and restrictions become increasingly likely later this weekend and into early next week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.