textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast with dry, warm weather still expected.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Well above average temperatures continue, with record highs possible by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Well above average temperatures continue, with record highs possible by the middle of next week.

A strong upper ridge is centered to the west of the area this weekend leading to above average temperatures with northwesterly deep layer flow aloft leading to dry weather. As the axis of this ridge shifts eastward, over the forecast area, NAEFS mean indicate the 500mb heights will rise to above the 99th percentile. A persistent signal in near record temperatures continues with EFI for max T above 0.9 to near 1.0 and shift of tails generally trending upward for the second half of the week. This signal indicates potential for daily record high temperatures, especially for the second half of next week and even the potential to be near the record high temperature for April (96 for both Columbia and Augusta).

No rain is forecast over the next 7 days, and the ECE-GEFS and their AI ensemble counterparts continue the dry stretch well beyond 7 days. So drought conditions will worsen through at least late April.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Brief periods of shallow fog during the early morning hours at AGS and OGB. Otherwise VFR expected.

Calm winds and mostly clear skies through the morning. With shallow moisture increases expected to continue through the weekend we may see brief periods of shallow fog at fog prone AGS and/or OGB during the early morning hours. Any restrictions should subside by or shortly after 12Z each morning. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail with clear or mostly clear skies and light, variable winds.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Widespread restriction chances remain low in the extended.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.