textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A period of breezy winds this evening associated with the seabreeze. Shower activity this evening winds down. Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Any remaining showers to dissipate this evening.

- 2. Rain chances increase this weekend with a more typical summertime pattern returning next week.

DISCUSSION

- 1. Any remaining showers to dissipate this evening.

Shower and thunderstorm activity from this afternoon has all but dissipated this evening. Any remaining activity is expected to end in the next hour. Outside of that, a seabreeze is working its way through the Midlands and CSRA this evening. Breezy winds gusting up to 20 mph and in increase in moisture can be anticipated as it moves through the region.

- 2. Rain chances increase this weekend with a more typical summertime pattern returning next week.

An upper trough over the Upper Midwest and associated surface front are expected to move toward the area for the weekend into next week. As they do, moisture increases significantly, especially Saturday night into Sunday as PWATs are forecast to top the 2" mark. However, guidance keeps the frontal boundary to the west, keeping a main trigger for focused precipitation to our west as well. Ensemble probabilities keep relatively low (~10-20% depending on model suite) chances of greater than 2" of rain through Wednesday. With this in mind, PoPs were dropped by 10-20 percent across the forecast area Sunday afternoon as hi-res model guidance is suggesting more scattered convection as opposed to a widespread rainfall. However, given the expected atmospheric conditions it would not be surprising to see localized amounts over 2" as any activity that develops should be efficient rain makers. This is supported by modeled soundings that show a long skinny CAPE profile. There is also an inverted-V indicated suggesting a threat for strong winds from any robust convection. This is echoed by the SPC Day 3 SWO which shows a Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather on Sunday across the Midlands and CSRA.

After the weekend, more typical diurnally driven activity is anticipated through mid-week as residual moisture hangs around the area.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions expected through Saturday afternoon before rain- storms chances increase.

Dry conditions persist for the TAF sites with limited mid-low level cloud cover. An outflow-sea breeze is moving inland quickly and causing some gusty southeast winds up to 20 knots, so noted that in a tempo through 02z for all sites. Otherwise calm, VFR conditions will continue until late Saturday afternoon when scattered showers and storms arrive. Confidence is highest currently in impacts at DNL, AGS, and AIK before the storms weaken further east. Prob30 groups included for now, but tempo and predominant groups will likely be needed in future TAFs.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Rain and restrictions become increasingly likely later this weekend and into early next week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.