textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The threat of showers and thunderstorms has ended for today. Elevated fire weather conditions expected Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Elevated fire weather conditions expected Tuesday.

- 2. Another cold front moves through mid week with rain chances. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected with temperatures warming above normal into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Elevated fire weather conditions expected Tuesday.

A cold front continues to move through the region this evening. Any shower or thunderstorm activity associated with this front is expected to remain offshore. In addition, dry air is pushing its way into the forecast area behind the front as noted by dropping dew points. This dry airmass is forecast to settle into the area on Tuesday, resulting in relative humidity levels dropping to 25-35% in the afternoon. The pressure gradient tomorrow is also expected to be tight enough to produce some breezy winds as gusts of around 20 mph are possible at times, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions across the area.

Key Message 2: Another cold front moves through mid week with rain chances. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected with temperatures warming above normal into next weekend.

There is solid ensemble and cluster consensus that by Tuesday this week, a deep trough will begin digging into the Great Lakes region before deepening a bit further into Wednesday as it pushes into the Eastern CONUS. This trough is expected to drive a surface low across the northern Great Lakes with an associated cold front extending southward. This upper support and front is expected to move through the area late on Wednesday into early Thursday. Timing uncertainty remains across the area, but increased rain chances seem possible with this, mainly near the Pee Dee.

Once the shortwave ejects to the east, model guidance is trending toward a large closed upper level low forming over the Mid-Atlatnic on Friday. This may help lower temperatures near normal for a few days with dry conditions. An upper level ridge will then expand over the southeast. Confidence is increasing that temperatures will warm above normal next weekend with highs possibly reaching the 90s.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions likely through the period.

A cold front is working through the region with drier air pouring into the TAF sites this evening. Expect dry weather through the next 24 hours. NE winds will remain breezy through the remainder of the evening with gusts around 15 kts possible through 06Z, mainly at CAE, OGB, and AIK. Winds transition to easterly on Tuesday with speeds around 10 kts through the afternoon. With dry air in place and decent low level mixing, no restrictions are expected tonight even at fog prone AGS. A 30 kt LLJ raises some concern for LLWS criteria after 06Z but as long as surface winds stay up as expected all sites should remain below criteria.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Wednesday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.