textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast hasn't changed much since the previous update, diurnal showers/storms and well above normal temps continue into the week ahead. Aviation discussion updated for 06Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Stratus and fog spreading across the region through the early morning.

- 2. Temperatures continue to be well above normal through at least the mid week next week. - 3. Chances for diurnal showers/storms continue into the early week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE #1: Stratus and fog spreading across the region through the early morning. Satellite imagery and observations indicate that a general rinse and repeat of the past couple of nights is occurring. At this time, a stratus deck continues to spread westward across the forecast area, with some embedded fog in the eastern portions. Some patchy dense fog is being reported just east of the area. Expect the stratus and fog to continue spreading westward into the early morning hours. Some localized dense fog remains possible for the eastern portions of the forecast area as we progress through the night. At this time, it does not look like it will be widespread, so not anticipating a Dense Fog Advisory.

KEY MESSAGE #2: Temperatures continue to be well above normal through at least the mid week next week.

The strong mid to upper ridge sitting over the region is forecast to remain over the Southeast for the next several days. However, guidance suggests that the trough currently over the Great Plains moves eastward today into Sunday, temporarily flattening the ridge out somewhat. Meanwhile, the southern portion of the aforementioned trough is forecast to become a closed low and drift over Baja California. Eventually, this feature is expected to eject eastward, allowing the ridge over the Southeast to restrengthen. Despite the flattening of the ridge the next couple of days, geopotential heights are still forecast to be anomalously high over the region. Therefore, the temperatures are forecast to remain well above normal. With the ridge restrengthening later in the forecast period, temperatures bump up even higher fore midweek ahead of the next potential trough. Ensemble spreads through midweek remain rather small, leading to a higher confidence in these high temps. The spread increases quite a bit late in the week, leading to more uncertainty.

KEY MESSAGE #3: Chance of diurnal showers into next week.

Although the ridge is forecast to begin flattening some today, the western periphery is expected to stay just to our west. Therefore, the best chances for any showers (and possibly a thunderstorm) this afternoon are in the western portions of the forecast area. The trough mentioned in Key Message #2 is expected to push a front toward the area for Sunday, but it is forecast to become washed out to some extent. That said, there should be enough forcing in the area to produce more coverage of showers and storms than Saturday. The threat for severe weather remains low as the best dynamics are expected to be north of the area. However, a stronger storm cannot be ruled out, especially near the Charlotte metro into the PeeDee region. With the residual heat and moisture, chances for diurnal showers continues into the early part of the week. Due to the lack of a forcing mechanism, coverage is anticipated to be isolated, however. A frontal boundary late in the week could bring higher chances for rainfall to the area.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Restrictions expected to continue early this morning, but return to VFR after sunrise.

Given the overall pattern has not changed much from the last couple of nights, it'd be foolish to think the sensible weather would vary considerably. A prominent stratus deck continues to develop and advect inland given abundant low level moisture. Some patchy fog and VSBY restrictions are also possible, but overall IFR to LIFR CIGS will dominate through an hour or two after sunrise. CIGS are expected to scatter out and lift by mid to late morning, giving way to VFR conditions by afternoon under partly cloudy skies. Scattered convection is possible once again in this warm and humid airmass, but chances are not high enough to include in the TAFs at this time. SFC winds generally southerly, less than 12 kts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Patchy morning fog remains possible each day. Increased shower and storm chances expected starting Sunday, lasting into next week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.