textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Confidence remains high with temperatures warming to well above average temperatures this weekend. Front next week trending drier. 18Z taf discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Significant warming trend into this weekend before a cold front moves in early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Significant warming trend into this weekend before a cold front moves in early next week.

Strong ridging is currently in place over the Southwest. A remarkably large footprint of EFI greater than 0.99 for max temperatures for much of the CONUS west of the Rockies. As this ridge slowly shifts to the east, a warming trend will continue over the forecast area with above average temperatures by tomorrow, continuing into early next week. NAEFS mean has trended a bit higher with 850mb temperatures by this weekend, once again above the 90th percentile. This will lead to high confidence of well above average temperatures this weekend with highs in the low to mid 80s Saturday to mid to upper 80s Sunday. Surface high pressure expected to shift south of the area which along with a low passing to the north will lead to increasing low level moisture. Some weakness in the ridge, generally over the northern portion of the forecast area could lead to an isolated shower this weekend but blended guidance keeps pops around 10 percent. Guidance has generally trended slower with a front early next week as the associated trough begins to dig south a bit later and farther east. This has led to more confidence in temperatures Monday remaining well above average with blended guidance also trending drier with the front itself with slight chance of rain showers or possibly an isolated storm Monday.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions through the period.

Thin cirrus continues to periodically stream over the region this afternoon, and this will continue into Friday. Limited low-level moisture increase tonight should continue to keep visibilities vfr at all terminals. Winds will be light and variable through sunset, then becoming calm overnight. As the center of the surface ridge shifts east Friday, winds will turn more out of the south to southwest by late morning, but speeds still only around 5 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... As moisture continues to slowly increase over the weekend, there will be a slightly better chance of morning stratus and fog, but chances for restrictions are still not too high. A cold front will approach from the north on Monday, increasing the chances for some clouds and showers ahead of it.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.