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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAF.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Drier conditions for the end of the week before rain chances ramp back up this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

- 1. Drier conditions for the end of the week before rain chances ramp back up this weekend into early next week.

PWATs are already falling to under 1.50" across the FA with the front shifting into the Coastal Plain and NW to NNW flow moving in. This push of drier air will continue to work in tomorrow and Friday as CAMs and global models show PWAT's potentially falling under 1" at times. Temperatures are progged to remain near normal each afternoon, but with this drier air, surface dewpoints are expected to fall into the upper 50s to low 60s, bringing much needed relief from the hot/humid conditions seen much of the past 3-4 weeks. Slightly better agreement is coming into LREF cluster analysis in the evolution of the synoptic pattern into early next week. The robust upper ridge near the climatological 90th percentile should continue retrograding toward the Four Corners region, allowing troughing to slide back into the Eastern US. There is more consensus as well that a sharp shortwave should dive out of the Midwest early this weekend, shifting into the Mid South by Sunday into Monday. Greater discrepancies exist in deterministic global models Sunday through Tuesday in the evolution of this shortwave as the ECMWF is more aggressive in cutting this off, while the GFS favors it continuing to lift through the Mid-Atlantic. Either way, PWATs across ensembles are shown reaching near 120-125% in this time period and with generous forcing in the troughing pattern, increased rain chances look likely at least late this weekend into the early week.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours.

Winds generally out of the north through the TAF period, generally around 5 knots. Drier air will continue to move into the area behind a front into tomorrow which will inhibit storms and cloud coverage in general. As a result, have left mostly one line TAFs for light northerly winds and mostly clear skies.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Rain and restrictions become increasingly likely this weekend.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.

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