textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Wind Advisory has been canceled.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Elevated winds continue overnight.

- 2) Much colder Monday and Tuesday with temperatures expected to be below freezing each morning.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE #1: Elevated winds continue overnight.

A robust upper trough and low pressure system will continue to move off to the northeast and away from the area overnight. Windspeeds did top 30 mph in several locations through the afternoon. However, with the low moving away and the gradient relaxing some, windspeeds have decreased and the Wind Advisory was canceled early. With the low continuing to deepen even as it moves toward New England, the boundary layer is unlikely to fully decouple tonight. Guidance continues to indicate northwest winds at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 20 or 25 mph will be possible into Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGE #2: Much colder Monday and Tuesday with temperatures expected to be below freezing each morning.

Cold advection will continue into tonight with strong agreement among models of lows by Monday morning dropping into the mid to upper 20s. Winds will likely remain breezy into tonight, although not nearly as strong as during the day with mixing becoming weaker. This will likely push wind chills into the upper teens and low 20s. HREF probabilities are high (greater than 80 percent) that we will remain above cold weather advisory criteria so will not issue any cold products with this forecast. Surface high pressure will move over the lower Mississippi Valley Monday into Monday night with temperatures a few degrees colder, although winds will likely be lighter leading to similar wind chills.

AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions continue with gusty winds through the end of the TAF period.

Gusts near 30 kts are continuing this evening, but are expected to slightly weaken over the coming hours with mostly clear skies. Tonight, northwesterly winds weaken a bit more to between 10-13 kts with gusts up to 20-22 kts as mixing likely continues overnight. After 14-16z on Monday, northwest winds pick back up near 15-18 kts with gusts between 23-26 kts building back in. These winds likely continue through the end of the TAF period with mostly clear skies and VFR conditions.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Winds should subside into Tuesday but VFR conditions likely continue. VFR conditions likely continue through at least the mid week with drier air remaining in place.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.