textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered dewpoints for this afternoon. Otherwise, minimal changes. Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Dry conditions with above normal temperatures are expected through Friday.

- 2. Rain chances may enter late in the week through this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry conditions with above normal temperatures are expected through Friday.

The forecast remains largely unchanged as upper ridging builds across the Southeast over the next 24 hours. At the surface, high pressure is expected to shift offshore through the middle of the week, allowing for a gradual return of southerly flow and increasing moisture across the Carolinas by Thursday and Friday. Overall, this pattern will support daily high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s through at least Friday, with mostly dry conditions continuing. It is worth noting that moisture will continue building through the week, but deeper advection off the Gulf is not expected until this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain chances may enter late in the week through this weekend.

There remains some uncertainty regarding how quickly a broad trough shifts into the Northeast later this week. At the surface, a cold front will approach the region and could stall nearby before a shortwave eventually pushes the front through by early next week. This is evident in a wide spread of high temperatures Sunday into Monday. Long range guidance has continued to trend toward a slower arrival of the front, with the global deterministic models now holding off on widespread rainfall until Saturday evening into Sunday. In the meantime, isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible starting Friday and into the weekend as LREF probabilities for PWATs greater than 2" reach 50-70% amid subtle forcing. The exact timing this weekend still remains uncertain regarding the trough, but increasing rain chances should bring temperatures back closer to normal. Ensemble guidance also hints at additional rain chances continuing into early next week, potentially brining another period of damp, cloudy, and cool conditions to the FA.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the 24hr TAF period, with the exception of ground fog at AGS and OGB overnight.

High pressure and dry air has led to a continuation of the beautiful, quiet weather that we have experienced for several days now. Light winds are forecast to become predominantly southeasterly Wednesday, with moisture beginning to slowly but surely increase as we go through Wednesday and beyond. While this may not be noticeable everywhere, the slight increase in low-level moisture, coupled with calm winds and clear skies, could yield IFR visibility restrictions at the AGS/OGB sites by sunrise on Wednesday. It doesn't look predominant by any stretch but there could be periods of 1-2SM visibilities in these fog prone sites. Aside from this, the period looks clear and quiet.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing chances of predawn stratus/fog later this week with increasing low level moisture. Increasing chances of precipitation this weekend.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.