textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Key Message 1. The growing season is expected to end tonight due to temperatures falling near or below freezing across much of the forecast area. Aviation Discussion updated for 06z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Near to below freezing temperatures likely this morning.

- 2. Below normal temperatures are expected to persist through early next week, moderating by mid next week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Near to below freezing temperatures likely this morning.

The forecast remains on track tonight as temperatures across the forecast area fall into the 30s. Several observations were reporting temperatures at or below freezing at midnight local time including Sumter Airport (KSMS) at 30 degrees and Thomson- McDuffie Airport (KHQU) at 32 degrees. Forecast lows are generally in the lower 30s, but many locations will fall into the mid to upper 20s by daybreak. Areas of widespread frost are expected to develop early this morning and a Freeze Warning remains in effect until 9 AM this morning. If temperatures fall as expected, the growing season will end for the NWS Columbia forecast area and frost/freeze products will not be issued until next Spring.

Key Message 2: Below normal temperatures are expected to persist through early next week, moderating by mid next week.

Broad high pressure will continue to usher a chilly airmass into the region through early this week. Afternoon high temperatures will remain below seasonal averages, generally ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s, while overnight lows will dip into the 30s for multiple nights. Confidence is increasing among global models that upper-level ridging will gradually build overhead by mid to late week, allowing temperatures to moderate closer to seasonal normals. Unfortunately, model guidance continues to show little indication of any meaningful rainfall through the upcoming week, suggesting dry conditions will persist.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the period with northerly winds.

Dry weather and clear skies with VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period at all terminals. Winds have become mostly light and variable early this morning as high pressure continues to ridge into the area. Some lingering wind remains above a shallow inversion this morning, around 20 knots but remains weak enough to prevent llws criteria from being met. Winds increase a bit late morning, out of the north around 5 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Dry air will likely prevent widespread restrictions through the extended period.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST Sunday for SCZ016-018-020>022- 025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137. GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST Sunday for GAZ040-063>065-077.