textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Heat Advisory has been extended until 8 pm Monday with heat indices expected between 105 to 110F. Aviation discussion updated for 00z update.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Dangerous heat continues into this week with highest temperatures expected Monday.

- 2. Storm coverage more limited Monday, then increasing chances the remainder of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dangerous heat continues into this week with highest temperatures expected Monday.

Upper ridging is expected to persist into early next week with continued above average temperatures expected. Heat Advisory remains in effect now through 8 pm Monday. A bit stronger mixing tomorrow with some (relatively) drier air moving in aloft will likely lead to lower dew points. This will likely be offset with high temperatures likely as HREF mean 850mb temps will be a couple degrees higher, around 23C. Highs Monday as a result will top out around 100F with heat indices similar to today. While today and Monday will likely be the hottest days, HeatRisk will remain high, likely through Thursday as blended guidance continues to favor above average temperatures, although there is a bit more uncertainty for the second half of the week as the ridge begins to break down. Bottom line, significant heat relief is not expected until the end of the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Storm coverage more limited Monday, then increasing chances the remainder of the week.

Some drier air aloft will shift into the area tonight with northwest flow strengthening as storm coverage expected to be more limited tomorrow and favoring the eastern area Tuesday and Wednesday. The ridge will begin to break down for the second half of the week which will lead to increased chances for shortwaves to move into the area with blended guidance favoring higher chances for precip late week into the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions expected.

Limited rainfall coverage this evening continues to weaken and dissipate. This will leave taf sites dry overnight. With a strengthening upper ridge, along with additional warming around 850mb, limited rainfall chances on Monday, so will keep dry conditions at all locations. Winds mainly light to calm overnight, then more westerly around 5 knots by late morning through the afternoon Monday. Broken mid and upper level cloudiness tonight, then more scattered mid and upper clouds through the day Monday. Vfr conditions will remain through the 24 hour period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal chances for thunderstorms continue Tuesday through the end of the week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for SCZ016-018-020>022- 025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137. GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for GAZ040-063>065-077.