textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. A more typical summer-like pattern expected this week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: A more typical summer-like pattern expected this week.

A few showers and thunderstorms popped up across the region earlier this evening mainly in the CSRA and southeast Midlands. These showers will continue to diminish with the loss of daytime heating, and dry conditions are expected overnight. Lows tonight should be in the low 70s with mainly high cirrus passing overhead.

Rain chances are higher on Monday as a cold front approaches the region. The latest Day 2 SPC SWO places much of the CWA in a Marginal (1/5) risk for severe weather, with a Slight (2/5) risk grazing the northern part of the FA. Should thunderstorms become severe, damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe hazard. With anomalously high PWATs and long skinny CAPE profiles appearing in modeled soundings there will also be the potential for localized flash flooding from any thunderstorms that develop.

A series of weak, mid-level disturbances will move across through much of the upcoming week. At the surface, high pressure settles over the eastern Gulf and western Atlantic with weak boundaries passing just north of our area. This pattern is typical for June, with fronts struggling to reach the region. As a result, expect summerlike weather to dominate with hot and humid conditions accompanied by isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

Late next week, a stronger upper-level ridge is forecast to build over the Four Corners, promoting broader troughing across the eastern CONUS. This pattern may support a more organized weather system affecting the area, though confidence remains low regarding timing and evolution.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions still expected through the TAF period.

Visible satellite imagery indicates cirrus clouds have gradually thickened this afternoon, with mid-level VFR cumulus lingering this evening. A few slow-moving showers are developing primarily south and east of the FA, mainly near AGS/DNL/AIK/OGB. Convective models suggest isolated showers and thunderstorms could move near these terminals, where deeper moisture is present. However, confidence remains too low for mention, trends will continue to be monitored. Any showers should quickly diminish after sunset, leaving SCT cirrus overnight.

Southerly winds this evening will become light and variable after sunset. By 13Z Monday, winds are expected to increase to 5-10 kt. Sustained winds will exceed 10 kt by late morning, with gusts up to 20 kt possible as the pressure gradient tightens and stronger winds aloft mix toward the surface ahead of a front. Showers and thunderstorms may be triggered as the front moves in, mainly during the late afternoon and overnight hours. Confidence in timing remains too low to warrant inclusion at this time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A strong line of thunderstorms could move through the forecast area late Monday afternoon or evening. For the remainder of the week, diurnally-driven widely scattered convection is expected.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.