textproduct: Columbia

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated 00z Aviation, otherwise no notable changes.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Seasonal temperatures with afternoon thunderstorm chances each day this week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonal temperatures with afternoon thunderstorm chances each day into next week.

A few isolated thunderstorms and showers will linger across the eastern and southern Midlands through about 9pm or so. Some gusty winds, thanks to lingering inverted V profiles, and brief heavy rain possible. Quick diurnal cooling after sunset with large dew point depressions and light winds will quickly stabilize things and mitigate any severe threat.

Generally quiet conditions are expected through the first half of the week as a relatively dry air mass remains in place. Rain chances should stay low through tomorrow, with only isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms possible during the early part of the week. Moisture will gradually increase from mid to late week, resulting in a trend toward higher afternoon storm coverage. LREF probabilities indicate a 50-70 percent chance of PWAT values exceeding 1.75 inches from Wednesday onward. Upper- level troughing will also begin to shift into the region, supporting increasing moisture and greater chances for afternoon thunderstorms. Weak shortwaves embedded within the flow should also provide additional forcing for convection. Temperatures are expected to gradually warm as this overall pattern persists into next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR expected through the period, with a few isolated thunderstorms near OGB-AIK this evening.

A few very isolated thunderstorms are moving across the eastern and southern Midlands of SC tonight, and will last through roughly 01z. Included a mention of vcts at OGB briefly to cover this. Otherwise, VFR conditions are likely through the period with a few scattered storms expected again Monday but low confidence. Monday morning could bring some fog around sunrise, but crossover temps and boundary layer winds should generally mitigate any potential.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated storms each afternoon with higher coverage of storms expected by midweek.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.

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