textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Above average temperatures with increasing chances for showers and storms late week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Above average temperatures with increasing chances for showers and storms late week into the weekend.

Model consensus continues to trend towards stronger offshore ridging with little sign of breaking down leading to increasing confidence in continued relatively hot temperatures for this time of year. The location of the ridge will support increasing deep layer moisture with majority of GEFS and EC ensemble members increasing PWATs to above 2 inches Friday through much of the area. This increased moisture will likely push dew points back into the 70s so while blended guidance favors highs in the low to mid 90s, heat indices will likely top out near the triple digits. While there will likely be some forcing from weak shortwaves pushing through weaknesses in the ridge, widespread forcing remains unlikely so shower and storm coverage will continue to favor afternoon and evenings, remaining isolated Thursday then scattered each day Friday through Sunday. Widespread severe weather is generally not expected with biggest threats being lightning and locally heavy rain.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Confidence in Restrictions at the Terminals Towards Daybreak Increasing....

Radar this evening shows a few sea breeze showers across the southeastern Midlands, including one southeast of OGB. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected for much of the TAF period. The primary concern during the next twenty-four hours will be from potential low clouds and/or fog developing towards daybreak. Confidence in restrictions is increasing, especially at the normally fog prone OGB and AGS. Any low stratus should lift and transition to SCT cumulus by midday as southerly winds increase to around 5 knots. Diurnal convection chances return on Thursday, but confidence remains too low for inclusion at the terminals except at OGB where a PROB30 was added.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Rain chances increase into the weekend along with a higher probability for morning fog/stratus concerns due to higher atmospheric moisture.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.