textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Key Message and Aviation Update

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Light rain showers continue through this morning morning. The rain may briefly changeover to freezing rain across the northern Midlands.

- 2) Temperatures near to below average through the weekend followed by a significant warmup next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE #1: Light rain showers continue into this morning. The rain may briefly change over to freezing rain across the northern Midlands.

Radar imagery at midnight shows the main batch of rainfall exiting the forecast area, with much lighter returns elsewhere. Hi-res guidance shows light precipitation continuing through the overnight period and into Thursday morning. There remains the potential for a brief period of freezing drizzle across the northern Midlands towards daybreak but impacts are expected to be minimal, if any. Will also need to watch for the potential for patchy dense fog as well towards daybreak.

KEY MESSAGE #2: Temperatures near to below average through the weekend followed by a significant warmup next week.

Temperatures were scaled back today due to lingering cloudiness and shallow CAA associated with wedge-like conditions. After falling into the lower 30s to lower 40s through daybreak, temperatures will struggle to climb today, especially across the eastern half of the forecast area. Beyond today, expect temperatures to be near to below average through the weekend. Upper ridging late this weekend will begin to build over the central US with blended guidance favoring a quick return to above average temperatures next week.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

IFR or lower restrictions expected to persist through much of the 24 hour TAF period.

Rain is exiting the forecast area as a backdoor front sinks southeastward through the region. Lingering low level moisture with drier air aloft has resulted in wedge like conditions with widespread low clouds below 1000 ft and some drizzle reducing vsbys as low as 2SM at times. These conditions expected to continue through much of the forecast period although some improvement is expected as the upper trough axis shifts east of the terminals and downsloping flow develops which should begin to erode the lower level moisture. Winds should generally be from the north around 5 to 10 knots from the north to northeast.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions should finally end tonight as drier air and northwesterly surface flow scour out remaining ceiling restrictions.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.