textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added mention of low end potential for Patchy Frost Monday night, mainly north and west of I-20. Aviation discussion updated for 06z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Dry weather continues this week with gradually warming temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Dry weather continues this week with gradually warming temperatures.

No change in the overall forecast thinking with the extended dry period continuing, and likely persisting through the end of October. Upper ridge will slowly translate east through the week and flatten out by Thursday, while surface high pressure remains anchored over the northeast and ridges south across the eastern seaboard. This will result in slightly warmer temperatures each day with fairly high confidence given very small NBM IQRs. The exception to this is Monday night when there is the potential for temperatures to fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s, mainly north and west of I-20, resulting in patchy frost in normally cold locations. The threat does not appear widespread enough to consider a Frost Advisory at this time, but the day shift will reevaluate for the next forecast package. Otherwise, expect a continuation of warm days and cool nights this week. Temperatures may reach slightly above normal values by Friday and Saturday as the pattern starts to show some signs of breaking down with the first chance of rain arriving near the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours.

Little change in the overall pattern as high pressure continues to bring dry and breezy conditions. Passing VFR clouds from onshore flow have cleared. For Monday, clear and dry conditions remain as winds pick back up to 7-10 knots by midday with occasional gusts up to 15 knots. Another calm and clear night Monday evening although a few VFR high clouds may pass between 0Z and 06Z. No fog is expected tonight and Monday night due to dry conditions.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Breezy northeast winds expected to persist into next week; although gusts may subside a bit in the 10 to 15 knots range. Dry conditions persist.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.