textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Above normal temps expected today, with a backdoor front ushering in drier and slightly cooler air through the middle to end of this week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Above normal temps expected today, with a backdoor front ushering in drier and slightly cooler air through the middle to end of this week.

The forecast remains largely on track over the next 7 days, with high confidence in the pattern set to unfold. Strong 500 hPa ridging is building into the southeastern CONUS, with heights near the NAEFS max for this time of year by Tues/Wed. A strong surface high is expected to push into the northeastern US and Mid-Atlantic over the next couple of days, yielding a backdoor front progged to push through the area tonight. Persistent surface ridging and is forecast to hang around through the end of the week, with seasonally low PW air and very pleasant afternoon dewpoints through Friday. Combine this with strong subsidence directly beneath the upper ridge and we are looking at a nice week across the area. Today will be the last really hot day as heights rise & we experience some compressional heating ahead of the backdoor front, with highs forecast in the mid 90s. Behind this front, we should see highs in the upper 80s to around 90 Tues/Wed/Thur, with overnight lows dipping into the mid 60s given the dry airmass in place. This is near normal for this time of year, a nice reprieve from what we have seen the past few weeks. By late week, an inverted upper trough is forecast to undercut the strong ridge and move south of our forecast area. This doesn't look to yield rain across the area though, so precip chances look low through at least this upcoming weekend.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period except at AGS.

Moisture is much more shallow today so the threat of fog and stratus is lower than the previous few nights. That said, light winds light and proximity to the river has lead to fog at AGS. OGB is another fog prone site and is a difficult forecast with dewpoint depression near zero. OGB odds of reduced vsbys are a toss up.

Slightly drier air is expected to push into the area today with a dry frontal passage later tonight. Winds will pick up out of the N/NE around 4-8 kts today. No showers are expected this afternoon. Then as the front pushes through the Carolinas tonight, we will see winds pick back up out of the ENE and remain elevated through the end of the 24 hour TAF period. Models are showing some potential for lower ceilings associated with the frontal passage tonight but confidence is too low at the moment to include in the TAFs.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Rain and restrictions unlikely for much of the week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.