textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Significant rainfall unlikely through early next week. Aviation updated for 18z.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Outside of a few showers late this weekend rain chances remain low through mid-next week before the pattern becomes active late next week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Outside of a few showers late this weekend rain chances remain low through mid-next week before the pattern becomes active late next week.

The near stationary surface ridging across the northeastern CONUS will remain steadfast into the middle of next week, with guidance in good agreement on a relatively dry forecast over the weekend. Breezy northeast winds and dry high pressure will continue through Sunday before a weak and ultimately inconsequential shortwave brings a brief return of moisture to the area, with a couple of showers possible; PoP's hover around 20% regionwide with the southern Midlands and CSRA the best spots for any showers. The surface ridging then digs across the area for the first half of next week before the pattern becomes more chaotic aloft with numerous shortwaves and trough ejections. A strong trough will eject out of the Southwest CONUS Monday before occluding and then sluggishly moving across the US. Moisture return ahead of this trough should be enough to bring some decent rainfall potential for Thursday and Friday, but beyond that, predictability falls apart. There is enough hints within both the physics ensembles and AI suite that we could have some severe potential later next week, but it will be predicated upon these shortwave and occluded low interactions which are notoriously difficult to predict. Regardless, rain chances increase late next week.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

Mostly clear skies and light northeast winds likely persist through the remainder of the afternoon and into the early evening. Through the evening and overnight hours, cirrus are expected to stream into the region, becoming BKN to OVC by Saturday morning. This should aid in precluding any fog development tonight. Northeasterly winds are expected to remain around 3-5 kts overnight as well before picking up toward 8-12 kts by 13-15z Saturday where gusts to 20 kts will be possible through the end of the TAF period. Overall, VFR conditions likely continue over the next 24 hours, but winds increase Saturday morning into the afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The chance of restrictions increases toward Sunday, but rain chances remain a bit lower.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.