textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Replaced Key Message 1. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Below normal temperatures today kick off a warming trend into this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Below normal temperatures today kick off a warming trend into this weekend.

The atmosphere has cooled and dried out considerably behind a cold front and upper trough which moved through last night. Temperatures today are expected to remain a bit cooler than normal, in the upper 70s to low 80s with occasional northeasterly breeziness. A strong and broad upper ridge and surface high pressure will start building over the eastern seaboard into Thursday, remaining in place through at least the start of this weekend. This setup will shunt deep moisture away from the area, keeping PWAT values under 70% of normal through Saturday night. NBM interquartile ranges for high temperatures remain small through Saturday as well, with values warming to near normal by Friday and holding there for Saturday and potentially Sunday. Forecast confidence then decreases a bit into early next week with some indication in ensemble and global guidance that weakness in the ridge and surface high may allow for moisture to return to the region. This brings at least low end rain chances back into the conversation for Monday.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR Conditions Expected Through the TAF Period...

High pressure continues to build over the area, providing mainly clear skies through the TAF period. Northeast winds gusting to the 15-20 kt range at times this afternoon become light and variable to calm after sunset before increasing again after about 15z. Brief periods of fog cannot be ruled out at the prone AGS/OGB terminals near sunrise tomorrow.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Drier air continues to hang on through the weekend with mainly VFR conditions expected.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.