textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Limited changes to forecast key messages. Fire Danger Statement in effect for today. After a chilly morning with some frost potential, warming temps through the week. Potential for diurnal showers or storms develop midweek. Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Near critical fire conditions likely today.

- 2. A chilly morning, but then temperatures warm through the week with slight chances for rain entering the forecast.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Near critical fire conditions likely today.

High pressure currently over the region shifts offshore through the early morning hours into the day Sunday. As it does, winds shift to more easterly, but are expected to be weaker than Saturday due to a slackening pressure gradient. However, winds are still expected to top out around 10-15 mph with a few gusts around 20 mph. With the winds shifting to the east, some moisture recovery is expected but still remain near critical levels. The lowest RH values are forecast to be north and west of the I-20 corridor. In addition, fuels remain incredibly dry. As a result, we have a Fire Danger Statement in place for the day.

As a reminder, in conjunction with the Fire Danger Statement for today, SC and GA have burn bans in effect until further notice.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A chilly morning, but then temperatures warm through the week with slight chances for rain entering the forecast.

High pressure over the area is leading to clear skies. In addition to the clear skies, very dry air is in place, allowing for temperatures to drop rather quickly. Temps are dropping the quickest in areas with no wind. Regardless, overnight lows are expected to be several degrees below average across the forecast area. In the PeeDee, a few areas of frost remain possible, so a Frost Advisory is in effect through 9 am. There is some question of how much frost does develop due to how dry the air is.

After this morning, broad ridging to our west begins to move over the area, eventually getting to the 90-97.5th percentile later this week leading to warming temperatures through the week. Guidance suggests the center of this ridge slides offshore by midweek. Meanwhile, the surface high over us is also forecast to move offshore. As a result, overall flow transitions to southwesterly, allowing for an increase in moisture to the area. PWAT values begin increasing to about 150% of normal later this week. With the moisture in place and warm temperatures, the potential for some diurnal showers or storms arrives around midweek.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period.

High pressure north of the area will push offshore through the daytime hours. A few clouds beginning to develop around 4-5kft this morning across the CSRA near ags/dnl as moisture begins to return inland from the coast. Additional scattered vfr clouds should continue to develop through the morning at all sites as this moisture moves inland further north across the central Midlands. Surface winds will become more easterly this morning, then turning southeast by later in the day today. Speeds lighter than previous few days, generally between 5 and 10 knots through the daytime hours, then lighter out of the southeast after sunset tonight. With dry low-levels and at least some light winds through sunrise this morning, fog should not be an issue.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions likely into early next week, then rain chances ramp up by mid week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for SCZ016. GA...None.