textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Very little change in the overall forecast with this update, with warming temps and increasing rain chances through the week. Aviation updated for 06z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Warming temperatures and increasing rainfall chances through the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Warming temperatures and increasing rainfall chances through the week.

Broad upper ridging over the central CONUS shifts eastward and offshore through the first part of the work week. An upper trough over the western CONUS is forecast to develop, strengthening the ridge offshore. Meanwhile, surface high pressure centered off the New England coast is expected to remain generally in the same place for the next several days. As a result, southerly flow is expected over the forecast area through much of the week, leading to a warming trend to well above average temperatures. In addition, more moisture gets advected into the region through the week, which should help reduce some of the wildfire risk. Dew points are already ~20F higher than yesterday at this time. PWATs are expected to reach 150% or greater of normal for this time of year by late in the week. While not much synoptic or mesoscale forcing is expected through the end of the week, temperatures should be warm enough to reach the respective convective temp each day, mainly for the second half of the week. That said, only isolated to scattered showers or storms can be expected any given day. An approaching front toward the weekend could bring better chances for precipitation heading into next week.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

High pressure continues to reside over the region with generally light southeasterly flow overnight. Winds gradually shift more southerly by 15z picking up to around 6 to 8 knots through the afternoon as the center of the surface high moves further into the Atlantic. Continued onshore flow above the surface will keep increasing moisture across the area, supporting SCT-BKN VFR ceilings in a mix of stratocumulus and some mid level clouds through the period. Cannot rule out some possible brief river valley fog at AGS but with intermittent cloud cover confidence is low.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Some morning stratus is possible each morning by midweek as moisture increases but no notable weather systems or widespread impactful restrictions are expected until at least Friday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.