textproduct: Columbia

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rain chances have trended downward for the end of the week. Otherwise, very little has changed in the forecast thinking. Aviation discussion updated for the 06z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Warming temperatures and increasing rainfall chances through the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Warming temperatures and increasing rainfall chances through the week.

Above normal temperatures and increasing surface moisture can be expected through the week. Upper ridging continues to build over the region today and slides offshore later this week in response to a developing trough on the lee side of the Rockies. This trough is also expected to aid in amplifying the ridge. At the surface, a Bermuda high is forecast to remain nearly stationary for the next several days. A combination of these features leads to generally southerly flow, bringing in the above normal temps and increasing moisture to the area. Today continues to trend dryer, with chances for diurnal showers or storms arriving tomorrow. Overall rain chances for the last half of the week into the weekend have trended downward in the latest blended guidance, likely due to slightly dryer air moving into the region. An approaching front toward the end of the week brings slightly higher chances for showers or storms, with the highest chances in the west. Cooler temps, relatively speaking, are forecast to move back into the area for the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions expected during the TAF period.

SCT-BKN clouds should continue much of today, though any CIGS will remain VFR, and generally remain between 4kft and 12kft. SFC winds should maintain a SE to S direction, beginning at 5 kts or less this morning, then increasing to about 6 to 9 knots after 14z. A few very light showers may pop up this afternoon around AGS/DNL, but confidence is too low for mention in the TAFs.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Some morning stratus is possible each morning by mid-week as moisture increases but no notable weather systems or widespread impactful restrictions are expected until the weekend.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.

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