textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Remove old key message now that the front has moved through.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) A soaking rain appears likely Saturday night and Sunday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE #1: A soaking rain appears likely Saturday night and Sunday.

Behind today's system, near normal temperatures arrive as a surface high shifts into the Mid-Atlantic and southeastern CONUS for the next few days. As this transpires, a complex and unusually uncertain synoptic setup should begin to take hold across the central and eastern CONUS. A baja low is forecast to emerge across the southwestern US by Friday, pushing eastward as we head into the weekend. A strong northern stream closed low over southeastern Canada is forecast to be digging into the northeastern CONUS around this time as well. Both of these features are notoriously difficult for models to, well, model correctly as they are in data sparse locations. As such, medium range guidance is devoid of consistency as it pertains to the strength and timing of the Baja Low & is surface low and the strength/location of the preceding surface high. However, despite the uncertainty in placement of these features, LREF clusters and ensembles in general are showing a favorable setup for moderate rain on Sunday. Probabilities of >0.5" of rainfall are high across the area, meaning that regardless of the aforementioned model discrepancies, the various outcomes all yield a nice, soaking rainfall on Sunday. Our chance at thunderstorms will depend on where the surface low goes and how strong the preceding surface high pressure system is. There remains a low probability signal within ML guidance for strong storms with this system. But with the uncertainty in the overall pattern, this is just something we'll need to keep an eye on for now.

AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR Conditions Likely Through the TAF Period....

All terminals have returned to VFR this evening as low clouds and rain move out of the forecast area. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period as high pressure builds in from the northwest. Expect scattered high-level clouds tonight with light and variable or calm winds. Guidance suggests some mid- level cloudiness will move in on Thursday so updated the TAFs to show this. Winds are generally light and northwesterly on Thursday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions are possible this weekend with another system moving into the area.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.