textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A drier airmass (relatively speaking) pushes in from the west today, keeping better rain chances in the eastern portions of the forecast area. Aviation discussion updated for 06z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Daily chances for showers and storms through the week as temperatures hover around average.

DISCUSSION

- 1. Daily chances for showers and storms through the week as temperatures hover around average.

An upper trough has dug into the Southeast early this morning. Guidance continues to suggest that a closed low will break off from this trough early in the week; however, the latest trends have shifted this low farther south than previous model runs. Ahead of the transition to a closed low, the western portions of the forecast area are forecast to be in the prime dry slot area of the trough, limiting available moisture (mainly in the mid to upper levels) available for showers and storms. So, the highest chances for showers and storms this afternoon are expected to be east and south of the I-20 corridor. West of there, wouldn't be surprised if little to no rain falls. As the trough transitions to a closed low, higher rain chances move back into the area with activity tomorrow and Wednesday. The temperatures are also forecast to be a few degrees cooler than average to start the week as this low moves near the area. The low gradually gets absorbed into the main flow for mid to late week as an upper ridge begins to build offshore, putting the CSRA and Midlands on the periphery, leading to daily shower and storm chances to the region through the end of the week. Temperatures also gradually rise to near or just above average.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Widespread IFR or lower restrictions expected through sunrise with a gradual improvement in cigs through the day.

Upper trough axis remains to our west with deep southwesterly flow over the region. Stratus has already developed across the region impacting all terminals with at least IFR cigs. Low clouds expected to persist through late morning before gradually lifting back to VFR by afternoon. Light southerly wind should increase to around 6 to 8 knots by afternoon. Another round of showers and storms expected today but coverage looks to be a bit less and maybe favoring the eastern Midlands but will continue the PROB30 for now.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Periodic showers-storms expected in the afternoons this week along with cig restrictions in the mornings early this week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.