textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rain finally ending by this afternoon, then drier conditions through the remainder of the week. Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Periods of rain continue through this morning, then drying begins this afternoon.

- 2. Temperatures just below to near normal are expected the remainder of the week with mostly dry conditions.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Periods of rain continue through this morning, then drying begins this afternoon.

Surface front remains situated just south of the forecast area. Airmass north of this front remains fairly stable. Drier air is slowly attempting to push into the northern counties, with current pwat values running around 1.6 inches. Meanwhile closer to the front across the southern area, pwat values are still around 2.1 inches. Rainfall across the southern counties closer to the front will remain on the lighter side this morning. After sunrise, drier air will continue to push slowly in from the north, bringing an end to the rainfall across the northern Midlands and Pee Dee. Remainder of the cwa may still see some lingering light rainfall through late morning before the drying trend begins to kick in by the afternoon.

Key Message 2: Temperatures just below to near normal are expected the remainder of the week with mostly dry conditions.

Pwat values drop to around 0.50 inches by Tuesday as drier surface high pressure builds into the Mid Atlantic. Persistent northeasterly low level flow into the mid week should keep temperatures near to just below normal with dry weather expected. Weak surface ridging is expected to continue into the late week before moisture may gradually uptick toward the end of the forecast period, possibly bringing back rain chances early next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Restrictions to continue through the morning with gradual improvement by this afternoon. A return to vfr should occur at all locations by 00z tonight.

Mainly light rain across the southern Midlands and CSRA, with limited rain across the central Midlands this morning. Regional surface observations showing a good bit of ifr/lifr ceilings in the Midlands and CSRA, with vfr attempting to develop across the northern Midlands as drier air begins pushing in from the north. Restrictions should continue at all taf locations through 18z, then begin improving back towards vfr by 00z at all sites this evening. Should be enough high level clouds late tonight and into Tuesday to help limit any widespread visibility issues, but can not rule out some development at ags/ogb late tonight. Winds light and variable early this morning, then becoming more north to northeasterly around 5 knots by late morning into the afternoon. Winds should return to light or calm Monday night.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR with drier conditions to prevail through the remainder of the week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.