textproduct: Columbia
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Temperatures today were adjusted down due to cloud cover across the northern and western Midlands. Updated 18z Aviation discussion.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. Seasonal temperatures with afternoon thunderstorm chances.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonal temperatures with afternoon thunderstorm chances.
Drier air is beginning to work its way into the forecast area today with northwest flow strengthening. Temperatures were lowered for today due to persistent cloud cover across the northwestern half of the CWA. The clouds and drier air will limit convective coverage although lingering low-level moisture, especially in the southeastern portion of the forecast area, will support isolated showers and thunderstorms.
By Sunday, NAEFS mean indicates PWATs will be around the tenth percentile, around an inch, and while can't completely rule out a stray thunderstorm with a strong moisture gradient near the southern portion of the forecast area, expected mostly dry conditions. While isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms will be possible early this week, increasing moisture mid to late week will likely lead to higher coverage of storms each afternoon with LREF probabilities around 50-70% of PWATs, greater than 1.75 inches, Wednesday through the end of the week and weak shortwaves leading to increased forcing.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Ceiling restrictions will continue to improve from mvfr back to vfr at all sites by 19z.
Satellite showing continued breaking up of the mvfr stratus deck early this afternoon. Ceilings restrictions should break up by 19z, with vfr scattered to broken cumulus above 3kft expected for the remainder of the afternoon. An isolated shower can not be completely ruled out, especially over the far eastern Midlands and southern CSRA. While taf locations are expected to remain dry, kogb would be the only site that may need monitored for showers later this afternoon.
Cumulus should dissipate after sunset, then mainly some thin cirrus overnight. Guidance does show the potential for mvfr visibilities around sunrise through 13z Sunday morning, and will handle that with a tempo to 4sm at most sites.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated storms each afternoon with higher coverage of storms expected by midweek.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None. GA...None.
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