textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 00z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. A front will bring mostly dry and breezy conditions into this evening.

- 2. Frost/Freeze headlines could be needed this weekend, especially Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: A front will bring mostly dry and breezy conditions into this evening.

The initial front has passed through the area and the secondary cold front is currently entering the Appalachians, and should pass into Friday. With the loss of mixing, the stronger 25-30 mph gusts have subsided, but gusts toward 20 mph could continue the next few hours.

Key Message 2: Frost/Freeze headlines could be needed this weekend, especially Sunday morning.

The secondary cold front passing through the area will bring much drier and colder airmass on Friday, with dewpoints falling into the 30s. Much cooler than normal temperatures are expected Friday, through the weekend, and into early next week. High temperatures each day through Tuesday should remain in the mid to upper 50s with lows in the low 30s to low 40s. On Saturday morning, westerly winds around 5 mph should hold lows in the mid to upper 30s, which precludes Freeze Watches for now, but Frost Advisories may be needed. There is increasing confidence across deterministic and AI global ensembles that lows Sunday morning should dip into the low 30s, with multiple locations dropping to freezing, especially across the northern FA. Temps on the lower end of guidance would be favored by clear skies and light winds less than 5 mph. The main question is how far the surface high is displaced to our northwest, but even solutions keeping it further northwest in the LREF cluster. Freeze Watches are looking increasingly likely for much of the forecast area for Sunday morning, especially across the western & northern Midlands and northern CSRA. Overnight lows into the 30s are expected into early next week.

AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the period. SCT-BKN clouds around 6-8kft MSL this evening will push through the terminals behind a cold front. Winds are gradually shifting from westerly to northwesterly as the front moves north to south. Gusts of 15 to 20 kts should diminish by 06z, with sustained northwest winds the remainder of the night less than 10 kts. Mid level clouds should clear by daybreak Friday. Northwest winds increase to around 8-12 kts gusting to 15-20 kts late morning with some passing mainly high clouds also possible. Fog not expected with drier air moving in and plenty of mixing near the surface.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Dry air will likely prevent widespread restrictions through the extended.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.