textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Dry weather continues this week with gradually warming temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Dry weather continues this week with gradually warming temperatures.

No change in the overall forecast thinking with the extended dry period continuing, and likely persisting through the end of October. Upper ridge will slowly translate east through the week and flatten out by Thursday, while surface high pressure remains anchored over the northeast and ridges south across the eastern seaboard. This will result in slightly warmer temperatures each day with fairly high confidence given very small NBM IQRs. The exception to this is Monday night when there is the potential for temperatures to fall into the upper 30s to lower 40s, mainly north and west of I-20, resulting in patchy frost in normally cold locations. The threat does not appear widespread enough to consider a Frost Advisory at this time, but the day shift will reevaluate for the next forecast package. Otherwise, expect a continuation of warm days and cool nights this week. Temperatures may reach slightly above normal values by Friday and Saturday as the pattern starts to show some signs of breaking down with the first chance of rain arriving near the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours.

High pressure continues to be situated over the region providing dry and fair weather. Some higher clouds may move over the terminals toward 00z but otherwise no cig/vis concerns during this forecast. Light north to northeasterly winds pick up to around 7-10 knots with some intermittent gusts around 15 knots after 15z before subsiding again with sunset. No fog is expected tonight due to dry conditions.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant aviation concerns.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.