textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated key message 1. Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Additional thunderstorms early tonight may lead to damaging winds.

- 2. Unsettled weather continuing into the work week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Additional thunderstorms early tonight may lead to damaging winds.

One main batch of strong to severe thunderstorms has moved east of the forecast are early this evening, with a lull in the activity for the next few hours. Additional thunderstorm activity currently moving through portions of central and northern Georgia will be moving into the CSRA towards 9-10 pm. With much of the forecast area somewhat worked over from prior convection, would not expect activity to be as strong as earlier this afternoon. However we still can not rule out an isolated strong/severe storm through the overnight hours. Key Message 2: Unsettled weather continuing into the work week.

The frontal boundary should pass through the area by Monday allowing for drier air to work over the FA. So Monday looks to have lower convective coverage than previously forecast. Beyond that, persistently high IVT (90th percentile per NAEFS) should aid in keeping things unsettled through mid week. By the end of this upcoming week, it appears that another front may make it into the area & another focus for showers and storms.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions expected outside of potential thunderstorms overnight.

Showers and thunderstorms have passed the terminals to start this TAF period. Another round of activity is currently moving into northeastern GA and the Upstate of SC. Uncertainty remains on whether this activity will make it to the Midlands/CSRA terminals, so have kept the PROB30 group the same for now. Outside of these storms, VFR conditions expected through the period. Southwest winds remain elevated overnight, generally in the 4-7 kt range. A frontal boundary moving through brings some elevated LLWS overnight around 25 kts, but will likely remain below thresholds to include into the TAFs. After the front passes, winds shift to more westerly at terminals along with some gusts in the 15-20 kt range after about 14z or 15z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...More unsettled weather through mid week along with possible associated restrictions with a stalled frontal boundary.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.