textproduct: Columbia
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Aviation Discussion updated for 18z TAF issuance.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. Below normal temperatures are expected to persist through early this week, moderating by mid week.
DISCUSSION
Key Message 1: Below normal temperatures are expected to persist through early this week, moderating by mid week.
Surface high pressure will gradually build eastward from the Ohio Valley into portions of the Southeast, promoting generally dry conditions and cooler than normal temps. Afternoon highs will remain below seasonal norms, generally ranging from the upper 50s to the lower 60s, while overnight lows will dip into the 30s through early this week. Confidence is increasing among global model guidance that upper-level ridging will gradually strengthen overhead by mid to late week, allowing temperatures to moderate closer to average. Unfortunately, guidance continues to show little to no indication of meaningful rainfall through the upcoming week, suggesting that dry conditions will persist. The lack of rainfall, low dewpoints, and min RH values in the 25-35% range could lead to an increasing concern for critical fire weather conditions. This will be monitored over the coming days.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions expected through the period with northerly winds.
Dry weather and clear skies with VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period at all terminals. With high pressure centered to the northwest of the area, northerly winds of 4 to 8 kts will continue across the area this afternoon, weakening to calm or light and variable for a few hours this evening. Like last night, northeast winds around 20 kt will develop between 500 to 1000 ft above ground overnight. However, these winds will be weak enough to not pose llws concerns tonight. Winds will increase to around 5 knots out of the northeast by early Monday morning and continue into the afternoon.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Dry conditions under high pressure will prevent widespread restrictions through the week.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None. GA...None.
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