textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Little change in the overall forecast. Aviation discussion updated for the 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Elevated fire weather concerns and periodic smoke impacts will persist through tonight.

- 2. Rain chances increase this weekend into early next week, but meaningful drought relief remains unlikely.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Elevated fire weather concerns and periodic smoke impacts will persist through tonight.

A dry air mass remains in place across the region this afternoon, with surface dewpoints in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Occasional low-end gusts of 15 to 20 mph are being observed, and with RH values remaining below 30% as well as little to no rainfall, this will likely continue to increase the elevated fire danger environment. We also may continue to see smoke impacts from fires to the south as winds remain out of the south to southwest, and HRRR smoke guidance indicates that smoke could linger in the region this evening. The SC Forestry Commission continues a Burn Ban until further notice.

Key Message 2: Rain chances increase this weekend into early next week, but meaningful drought relief remains uncertain.

A more unsettled pattern is expected to develop over the next 2-5 days with several chances for rain in the forecast. Cumulus clouds have started to push into the CWA this afternoon. While a few spotty showers are developing in our surrounding areas, it is likely too dry for much if any precip to make it to the ground. Moisture will begin to rebound this evening and overnight. Chances of a possible shower will be better closer to the coast where PW values will increase around 1" this afternoon. A cold front is forecast to move through late Saturday and into Sunday as the upper ridge breaks down and higher chances chances for showers arrive. There will be some support for potential scattered thunderstorms as well, but no significant severe strom chance as storm organization should be kept to a minimum. Isolated chances for additional showers continue Sunday and Monday mainly for the eastern portion of the forecast area as high pressure shifts over the eastern seaboard. Another front likely approaches Tuesday with some severe potential as instability increases, and a more robust shortwave moves over the area on Wednesday. This may lead to some slightly higher rainfall amounts, but particularly for next week it is too soon to start talking about specific accumulations. Even if we receive some rain and brief relief with all of these systems, the drought is unlikely to be significantly reduced anytime soon. The latest runs of the GEFS and ECENS continue to show very low chances, less than 20%, for 7-day rainfall totals over 1". So, expecting the severe to extreme drought to persist for the foreseeable future.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

A scattered cumulus field has developed across the region with bases between 8-10kft. This cumulus is expected to continue through the afternoon and dissipate as the sun sets. A rogue shower cannot be completely ruled out, but is unlikely. W to WNW winds of 5-10 kts can also be expected this afternoon, with a few gusts of 15 kts or so possible. Skies clear overnight as winds diminish. Southwest winds increase and cloud cover returns late in the period, but any rain associated with an approaching front should hold off until after 18z for the terminals.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Rain chances increase Saturday afternoon and evening, which may introduce periods of restrictions, but confidence in coverage remains low. More unsettled pattern with additional chances for rain Sunday and Tuesday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.