textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The forecast remains on track for the remainder of this week. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Dry weather continues the remainder of this week and into the weekend with temperatures near to just below normal.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Dry weather continues the remainder of this week and into the weekend with temperatures near to just below normal.

After a chilly start to this morning, temperatures have risen fairly quickly, partially due to how dry the airmass continues to be, and we should top out in the mid to upper 70s. Without much change in the overall pattern today and tonight, expect another cool night with lows generally dropping to the mid 40s under mainly clear skies.

Otherwise, another fairly rinse and repeat forecast is expected over the coming several days. As we head into the later part of the work week, a deep trough currently off the southern CA coast, will slowly work eastward into the Four Corners region, further amplifying the central CONUS ridge and troughing over the eastern US. While this upper level pattern should not bring any significant changes to the pattern we are currently in, high temperatures Friday and Saturday continue to trend cooler, toward the upper 60s to low 70s Friday and the mid to upper 60s Saturday. Late this weekend into early next week, temperatures likely return to near normal values again as global models show the ridge finally building overhead with surface high pressure working into the Carolinas. As discussed the past few days, the chance for meaningful rainfall remains very low into early next week with minimal moisture advection into the Southeast.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions likely through the next 24 hours.

No real significant changes to our weather pattern over the next 24 hours. Winds remaining out of the north to northeast through the day time hours, generally between 5-10 knots this afternoon, then light and variable to calm overnight and through much of Thursday morning. High pressure should keep skies mostly clear, with an occasional passing mid/upper level cloud possible. There may be a slight increase in low-level moisture overnight, especially closer to rivers and bodies of water. Because of this, dewpoints may be a little higher during the morning hours than the past few days, and with the clear skies and light winds, some shallow patchy ground fog can no longer be completely ruled out, especially at ags/ogb towards sunrise. Confidence is still on the lower side at this point, but may need to begin including a tempo for mvfr visibilities with later taf updates if confidence increases.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture creeps back into the area this weekend. Some patchy fog will be possible late in the extended.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.