textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Heat and humidly return with isolated diurnal convection continuing. Aviation discussion updated for 06z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Hot and humid conditions return, with chances for diurnal showers and thunderstorms each day.

DISCUSSION

- 1. Hot and humid conditions return, with chances for diurnal showers and thunderstorms each day.

The mid/upper level low will continue to weaken and become absorbed into the broader trough as it lifts northeastward away from the region, resulting in a gradual reduction in its influence. Heights will rise through the remainder of the week supporting a slow warming trend with increasing afternoon temperatures. Meanwhile, PWAT values will steadily increase as the drier mid-level air is replaced by a more moist subtropical airmass. Although the trough is expected to weaken, the return of 1.8-2" PWATs will support continued daily convection. Pops will trend closer to climatological normals, with diurnally driven pulse convection expected to develop each afternoon and evening. Coverage should remain more isolated compared to the widespread activity over the past several days. The severe component should also decrease as DCAPE lowers and shear weakens, although a marginally severe microburst cannot be ruled out each day.

Convective temperatures are forecast to range from 88-93F, which should be reached relatively easily given the warm and humid boundary layer. With oppressive low-level moisture, weak mid/upper-level flow, and minimal large-scale forcing in place, the region will settle into a typical summertime pattern.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Restrictions possible tonight, but lower confidence compared to the past few days.

Some shower activity still occurring across portions of the central Midlands, mainly impacting cae/cub at issuance time. This should continue for the next hour or so, then remain north of all tafs through sunrise. Some mvfr ceiling restrictions associated with the showers. Once those clear the area, may see a period overnight in which skies scatter out some at all sites before the potential for some mvfr ceilings and visibilities return before sunrise. Have generally continued with the TEMPO groups that were previously in there through the morning hours, then after vfr should prevail throughout much of the day outside of any afternoon showers and storms. With another afternoon of diurnal showers and thunderstorms, PROB30 groups remain through sunset, similar to previous days. Winds generally light overnight, then more out of the southeast through the day.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal thunderstorms expected this week with early morning restrictions possible.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.