textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Daily shower and thunderstorm chances return, a weak front moves in Monday into Tuesday bringing an increased risk of active weather.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. A more typical summer-like pattern returns this weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: A more typical summer-like pattern returns this weekend into next week.

Warmer, above-normal temps return today as we begin the first official day of Summer. Low-level moisture will gradually increase as a stalled boundary to our south drifts over the area. Despite higher PWATs, rain chances remain limited. Only an isolated shower or storm is possible across the far southeastern Midlands, with dry conditions expected to prevail for most locations.

A weak cold front approaches from the W/NW today into Tuesday. The SPC Day 3 Outlook highlights much of the forecast area in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather. Current guidance suggests 20- 25 kt of deep layer shear and 1,500-2,000 J/kg of CAPE developing during peak heating. Should storms organize, damaging wind gusts would be the primary hazard. However, confidence remains somewhat limited until Hi-res guidance begins to fully capture the system.

A series of weak, mid-level disturbances will move across through much of the upcoming week. At the surface, high pressure settles over the eastern Gulf and western Atlantic with weak boundaries passing just north of our area. This pattern is typical for June, with fronts struggling to reach the region. As a result, expect summerlike weather to dominate with hot and humid conditions accompanied by isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.

Late next week, a stronger upper-level ridge is forecast to build over the Four Corners, promoting broader troughing across the eastern CONUS. This pattern may support a more organized weather system affecting the area, though confidence remains low regarding timing and evolution.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Predominant VFR conditions likely through the TAF period.

High clouds will continue to stream overhead this morning hindering fog development despite calm winds. That said, AGS could experience a brief dip in vis around sunrise but confidence is low.

Winds will return to SW today with slight moisture return to the region. Wind speeds will be from 5 to 8 kts after 15Z through the afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon but the likelihood of impacting the terminals are low due to coverage. Winds will go light and variable tonight around 00Z. AGS and OGB may have brief vis restrictions around sunrise on Monday but the overall setup for widespread fog to develop is unfavorable.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A strong line of thunderstorms could move through the forecast area late Monday afternoon or evening. For the remainder of the week, diurnally-driven widely scattered convection is expected.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.