textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Overnight temperatures adjusted. Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Cooler but dry conditions are expected this weekend. Temperatures gradually return to near to above normal values next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Cooler but dry conditions are expected this weekend. Temperatures gradually return to near to above normal values next week.

Clear skies continue across the area this evening with much drier air in place (surface dewpoints in the mid 40s). Fairly strong radiational cooling coupled with weak CAA should bring the coolest low temperatures seen in months. For both the Columbia and Augusta areas, it has been 132 days since the last minimum temperature below 50F. MAV/MET/ECS MOS guidance remains fairly consistent that lows bottoming out in the upper 40s to lower 50s are likely tonight. Northern locations and more sheltered spots could even dip into the mid 40s near sunrise Saturday.

Over the weekend the upper trough in control of our weather fully cuts off, with a potent Nor'easter meandering south of New England, and a blocking pattern setting up with a ridge over the Central CONUS. In terms of sensible weather, dry conditions likely persist with PWAT's well under 1". Temperatures gradually warm toward the lower to mid 80s on Sunday after topping out around 80 degrees on Saturday. Overall, a mild and pleasant weekend appears to be in store.

Next week, the synoptic pattern gets more murky as the remnants/moisture of what is currently Hurricane Polo likely gets picked up in the prevailing flow and may interact with a sharp shortwave digging into southern CA/the Four Corners region during the early to mid week. While the exact evolution of the upper level pattern is uncertain, ensemble guidance and global models indicate at least a period of ridging is likely ahead of the aforementioned trough, bringing back temperatures near to above normal for the week.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals through the valid TAF period.

One line TAFs for all terminals as dry air has filtered into the area with satellite derived PWATs less than a half inch and light northerly winds. This will lead to clear skies continuing throughout the TAF period and winds out of the north, generally around 5 knots or less. Localized river fog not out of the question tonight but should not cause significant impact to the terminals.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions expected through the extended period.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.