textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Removed Key Message regarding evening rain.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Wet weather arrives again on Saturday, persisting through early Monday as a cold front takes its sweet time pushing through.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Wet weather arrives again on Saturday, persisting through early Monday as a cold front takes its sweet time pushing through.

High clouds will likely continue streaming atop the forecast area on Friday as southwesterly flow continues. A slow moving cutoff low across the southwestern US is forecast to translate eastward over the next several days on the southern side of a deep trough centered across the Great Lakes region. Multiple shortwaves are forecast to precede this cutoff low, with moisture easily recovering ahead of each of these across the southeastern CONUS. The result will likely be multiple rounds of showers and isolated thunderstorms on Saturday/Sunday/Monday. The exact location of the heaviest rainfall is uncertain but LREF and NBM guidance overlap the best probabilities of >0.25" and >0.5" of rainfall across the southern Midlands and the coastal plain. Overall, this event looks like it will pose little threat for hazardous weather, with mainly beneficial rainfall expected across the area again. High pressure is forecast to push in by the middle of next week, with drier weather likely again.

AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Predominantly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

Ceilings will continue to lift and dissipate as the cold front and associated moisture departs our CWA. Winds will gradually diminish this evening, becoming light to variable overnight then north/northeasterly by Friday morning. Residual low-level moisture may support scattered VFR stratus through around midnight, followed by mainly thin cirrus for the remainder of the forecast period. Current guidance does not indicate widespread fog development overnight. However, isolated shallow ground fog or brief low stratus cannot be ruled out if winds become calm enough and skies clear sufficiently. Confidence remains too low for TAF inclusion at this time, though trends will continue to be monitored. High clouds will increase through the day tomorrow with winds generally remaining between 5-7 knots. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Another system brings a chance for restrictions once again with showers and thunderstorms this weekend.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.