textproduct: Columbia

SYNOPSIS

Shortwave ridging is expected to bring a warming trend through the end of the week with temperatures creeping back closer to normal. The next chance of rain arrives Thursday into Thursday night as a cold front sweeps through the region. Drier weather is then expected into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/

Key message(s):

- Increasing clouds overnight with warmer overnight lows

Upper level moisture will be increasing overnight ahead of an approaching upper trough currently over the southern Plains and therefore expecting an increase in higher clouds by morning. Satellite imagery currently showing clear skies and winds have diminished to near calm with a very dry air mass still in place so temps should drop quickly. However, the increasing clouds later tonight should limit radiational cooling so lows may be early then temperatures level off or rise slightly.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Key message(s):

- High pressure and warming temps expected Wednesday.

- Widespread rain and breezy conditions expected Thursday as a front moves through.

High pressure will shift offshore on Wednesday, leading to increasing southwesterly winds throughout the day; gusts 20-25 mph are expected in the afternoon. As heights rise and broad warm advection develops within the southwesterly flow, temps will finally rise back above average, into the low 60's in many spots. The pattern will further amplify as we move into Thursday as a strong trough digs into the central US. Strong moisture advection will ramp up throughout the day with PWAT's climbing above 1.4". Isentropic lift will increase along with the increasing PWAT's so some shower activity is possible in the morning, then becoming more widespread throughout the afternoon and evening. Rainfall totals into the evening should generally be in the 0.25-0.75" range. The front itself and associated forcing will pull too far north for much in the way precip from the surface front overnight into Friday. As for winds, the cold advection and deepening pressure gradient will help bring some gusts of 25-35 mph with the front, but again the stronger pressure falls and forcing will be to our north.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Key Message(s):

- Cool and breezy on Friday behind the front, followed by calm and seasonal weather.

The front from Thursday will push through and bring some notable cold advection across the area for Friday with below average temps expected. The pattern quickly flattens and becomes more zonal across the entire eastern US over the weekend as a deep ridging erodes the persistent troughing that had lingered over the eastern US. This pattern will continue into next week with PWAT's remaining too low for any precip chances and neutral advection, so near to slightly above average temps are expected into early next week.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions through the TAF period.

Dry air mass remains in place with high pressure dominating the weather. Clear skies start the period but increasing high clouds spread over the region overnight. Light to calm winds overnight will pick up from the southwest around 5 to 8 knots after 15z. Some cumulus cloud development may occur at AGS/DNL/OGB with increasing low level moisture ahead of an approaching frontal boundary.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The next chance for widespread restrictions will be Thursday and Thursday night as moisture continues to increase and rain chances move into the area. Drier air looks to filter in for the weekend, reducing chances for restrictions.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.