textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rain will continue into tonight, tapering off from west to east with much of the area dry by around midnight as a front moves through. Updated Aviation discussion for 00z TAF.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Rain chances continue into tonight before a cold front ushers in drier air.

- 2) Well above normal temperatures mid to late next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE #1: Rain chances continue into tonight before a cold front ushers in drier air.

Upper low is moving into southern Georgia with a front along the northwestern county warning area border. The strongest convection remained mostly south of the area associated with a decaying QLCS. As the area becomes more stable into tonight, thunderstorms in the southern area have become less likely, with a few strikes observed in south-central Georgia associated with the upper low which will likely remain to the south. Additional rainfall associated with the front and upper low continuing into tonight, although rates are mostly light currently. The front is expected to begin moving southeastward over the next couple hours with rain tapering off generally from west to east, likely ending over the entire area around midnight.

KEY MESSAGE #2: Well above normal temperatures mid to late next week.

LREF spread in 500 mb heights has decreased for next week indicating a better agreement in the overall synoptic pattern and higher likelihood of well above normal temperatures. Highs will be in the mid to upper 60s for Tuesday and Wednesday and above 70 degrees from Thursday through Saturday. We cannot rule out portions of the forecast area breaking into the 80s in that latter timeframe. Record highs are generally in the low 80s.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Widespread restrictions with scattered showers expected into the evening.

The forecast starts with a mix of VFR/MVFR conditions but the upper trough axis and frontal boundary will shift southeastward through the area during the 00-03z time frame. This will shift winds to the northwest and bring IFR cigs back into the picture through around 07z-09z. Some scattered showers will accompany the front with possible brief vsby restrictions. Downsloping northwesterly flow should scour out the lower clouds during the predawn hours with a return to VFR conditions by 12z, although a brief period of MVFR cigs will again be possible at OGB from 14z-18z. Winds will pick up from the north after 09z and could be gusty mid morning into early afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions expected much of the extended period.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.