textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 12z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Warming temperatures and increasing rainfall chances through the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Warming temperatures and increasing rainfall chances through the week.

Confidence remains fairly high in the forecast over the next few days. The Bermuda surface high is forecast to generally remain in place through the work week. Meanwhile, the upper ridge hangs out overhead through the week, with some amplifying expected due to a digging trough to the west. As such, generally southerly winds continue to keep temps 10-15 degrees above average and bring chances for a few afternoon showers or thunderstorms each day. The main exception to daily precip chances looks to be Thursday as some drier air is expected to mix down. An approaching trough and associated frontal boundary bring some higher chances for rain or storms over the weekend, with Sunday currently looking like the highest chances. It's worth noting that the high temps each day will be partially dependent on how much cloud cover we see. This afternoon is anticipated to be mostly cloudy, so we may be a few degrees cooler than current forecast highs.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Some periodic restrictions at AGS and OGB this morning, then VFR conditions anticipated for much of the period.

Satellite imagery has shown some fog in the eastern Midlands and into the CSRA. AGS and OGB have been experiencing reduced visibilities at times due do this. Expect this trend to continue through about 14z before VFR conditions return. Low to mid level clouds like we've seen the past couple of days is expected once again today as we move into the afternoon before clearing some overnight. A rogue shower could affect one of the terminals, but chances remain low. There is potential for some patchy fog to redevelop late tonight/early tomorrow morning, but confidence is too low to include at this time. Winds pick up out of the southwest, generally between 5-10 kts, after about 14z before becoming more southerly after 20z or so.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Some morning stratus is possible through the remainder of the week with increased moisture in place. Better chances for diurnal thunderstorms by the end of the week and into the weekend.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.