textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Dry conditions persist into next week with temperatures initially near normal warming back above normal by the mid week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry conditions persist into next week with temperatures initially near normal warming back above normal by the mid week.

Little has changed in the outlook for today through at least the mid week. The upper low and associated Nor'easter will continue to meander across New England today with low level northerly to northwesterly flow keeping dry air in place. This should bring morning lows in the upper 40s to low 50s near daybreak before afternoon temperatures warm to around normal, in the low to mid 80s. Heading into the work week, a blocking pattern likely persists through at least Tuesday as a strong trough pushes into the SW CONUS, interacting with remnant moisture from what is currently Hurricane Polo. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that ridging should gradually shift overhead with associated warming temperatures during the mid week where temperatures back into the upper 80s to lower 90s will be possible. In general, this pattern favors continued mostly dry conditions, though deeper moisture will gradually work back toward the region during the mid to late week with PWAT's exceeding 1". By the late week and into the start of the weekend, the ridge and associated surface high may become increasingly suppressed as the SW CONUS trough pushes eastward, possibly bringing back shower/storm chances.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions will continue through the valid TAF period.

Outside of some passing high cirrus, expect SKC. High pressure and a very dry airmass promote VFR conditions through the next 24 hours at all TAF sites. Surface winds should be light and variable early this morning shifting out of the northwest around 5 to 10 knots by 15z. Winds return to light and variable this evening.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions expected through the extended period.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.