textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated 00z Aviation.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Seasonal temperatures with afternoon thunderstorm chances each day into next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonal temperatures with afternoon thunderstorm chances each day into next week.

Calm weather expected into Sunday with shower and storm activity pivoting east into the coastal plain for the evening with drier and some mid- level subsidence clearing cloud cover out of the Midlands and CSRA.

By Sunday, NAEFS mean indicates PWATs will be around the tenth percentile, around an inch, and while can't completely rule out a stray thunderstorm with a strong moisture gradient near the southern portion of the forecast area, expected mostly dry conditions. While isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms will be possible early this week, increasing moisture mid to late week will likely lead to higher coverage of storms each afternoon with LREF probabilities around 50-70% of PWATs, greater than 1.75 inches, Wednesday through the end of the week and weak shortwaves leading to increased forcing.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions expected this evening with some fog-stratus possible early Sunday.

Convection has moved east of all TAF sites as of 00z so no additional mentions in the TAFs. Otherwise, generally calm and clear conditions expected overnight into early Sunday. Some fog-stratus is possible around sunrise but confidence is relatively low in restrictions below MVFR. For the remainder of Sunday, a typical summer day is expected with afternoon cu and isolated thunderstorms with low confidence in timing or TAF site impacts at this time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Isolated storms each afternoon with higher coverage of storms expected by midweek.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.