textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Line of moderate to heavy rain and storms continues moving through the area, causing localized flooding. Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Rain and thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend with a more typical summertime pattern returning next week.

DISCUSSION

- 1. Rain and thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend with a more typical summertime pattern returning next week.

Scattered showers and storms this afternoon have congealed into a broad line with moderate to heavy rain. The threat for strong to severe storms has diminished, but the flash flooding threat continues into this evening. At the time of this update, there have been reports of flash flooding in the Sumter area. As this line of activity gradually slides to the east, and loses daytime heating, the flash flooding threat should slowly diminish after dark.

Moisture is expected to continue increasing tonight into Sunday ahead of a slow moving frontal boundary. A shortwave over northern Florida is forecast to eject northeastward, bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. As of now, the highest chances for activity looks to be in the southeastern Midlands and southern CSRA as the shortwave is anticipated to move near the coast. Similar to today, any robust convection could produce damaging wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall, and localized flash flooding.

After the weekend, more typical diurnally driven activity is anticipated through mid-week as residual moisture hangs around the area.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions to begin the TAF period, then intermittent restrictions expected into tonight move through the region.

VFR ceilings are being noted at the terminals currently, with intermittent vis reductions due to rain and thunderstorms. Expect this activity to slide eastward and wane in the next few hours. OGB has the highest chance of being affected by the activity through roughly 03z. A lull in the action is then expected until the next round of potential showers and storms returns in the afternoon. Ceilings are expected to lower to IFR, potentially LIFR overnight after the rain ends before improving again after daybreak. Winds are anticipated to be light from the south to southeast through the TAF period, increasing to 8-10 kts after 18z. A few higher non-thunderstorm gusts will be possible as well in that time frame.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Periodic rain and restrictions continue into early next week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.