textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Thunderstorms have exited the area. Cool, dry air will filter in behind the front tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. No widespread hazardous weather expected

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: No widespread hazardous weather expected

Convection has exited the forecast area with drier air beginning to filter into the area. The front is wrapping around the southern end of the Appalachians now. We should see it first push in to the western FA this afternoon, then the northern side will dive into the area from NC this evening. Cool, dry air will bring temperatures into the mid to low 50s tonight and 40s on Saturday night and Sunday night. Some patchy fog will be possible in sheltered locations given the lingering, low level moisture but widespread fog is unlikely.

Dry weather and seasonable temperatures will continue through at least early next week with high pressure in place. From that point, there is some divergence in guidance for the remainder of the week but mean PWAT values of less than 0.75 inches from the GEFS and Euro Ens generally favors dry weather.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.

The front has pushed east of the TAF sites this afternoon with 5-10 kt winds turning westerly to northwesterly behind it. Lingering restrictions are also lifting, though lower VFR cigs may linger over the coming hours. VFR conditions then should continue this evening and overnight tonight with light and variable winds. Modeled soundings indicate a 25-30 kt LLJ could set up tonight, nearing LLWS criteria, but at this time have left mention out of the TAF. With drying behind the front, widespread fog is not expected, but a few patchy spots cannot be ruled out near daybreak Saturday. Winds turn more northeasterly late Saturday morning, around 4-8 kts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Dry air will likely prevent widespread restrictions through the extended.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.