textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast remains generally on track. A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect through Sunday evening. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Much cooler air and breezy conditions filter in behind an exiting cold front for the rest of the weekend. A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect through Sunday evening.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Much cooler air and breezy conditions filter in behind an exiting cold front for the rest of the weekend. A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect through Sunday evening.

A strong cold front has pushed its way off shore this afternoon. Behind it, strong high pressure is filtering in from the central CONUS. As a result, a tight pressure gradient is setting up, causing breezy northerly to northwesterly winds for this afternoon and evening. Expect winds to be in the 10-15 mph range and gusts reaching 25-30 mph, with a few stronger gusts possible. On Sunday, an upper cutoff low and associated offshore surface low are forecast to develop, keeping the strong pressure gradient over the area. This is expected to result in another day of breezy winds, but a shift to more northeasterly for the day. Due to this, a Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect through 8 pm Sunday. In addition to the breezy winds, strong cold air advection brings much cooler and drier air for the remainder of the weekend as temps are forecast to be several degrees below normal, staying mainly in the 60s both afternoons. Some of the latest guidance has been coming in slightly warmer for Sunday compared to previous model runs. Overnight lows are expected to be chilly for this time of year both tonight and Sunday night, dropping into the lower 40s each night.

After the weekend, surface high pressure is forecast to settle into the area with upper ridging building slightly overhead. As a result, quiet weather is in store for the workweek along with a warming trend to near normal by late in the week.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions with breezy NNE winds through the period.

Drier air is filtering in behind a cold front, scouring out lower clouds and pushing rain to the east of the terminals. VFR conditions expected to continue with sct to bkn decks around 4-5kft. Skies expected to clear this evening, remaining clear through the rest of the TAF period. Winds shift a bit more northeasterly tonight into tomorrow and while gusts likely subside overnight, expect gusts around 20 knots once again early Sunday morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Probability of restrictions through the extended period is low.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for SCZ016-018- 020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137. GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ040-063>065- 077.