textproduct: Columbia

SYNOPSIS

Rain is expected to become widespread across the area tonight, continuing into the daytime hours of Saturday as a low pressure system works across the area. Dry weather is then expected to return Sunday through much of the week ahead.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Rain becomes widespread by daybreak, continuing into the daytime hours of Saturday.

- Saturday is cloudy and cool with periods of rain tapering off from west to east towards evening.

- Gradual clearing is expected at night with chilly temperatures across the northern Midlands.

Radar tonight shows increasing rain coverage as the lower atmosphere moistens. Latest guidance shows a quick increase in rain chances towards daybreak, especially south and west of the Columbia area. The clouds and rain limit cooling tonight with forecast lows generally in the mid to upper 40s.

Widespread rain should be ongoing across the FA at daybreak with the heaviest rainfall expected across the southern Midlands and CSRA. As mentioned in the previous update, a stronger than expected high pressure should allow a warm front to develop near our southern CWA border with cool temperatures, generally in the lower to mid 50s, across all but Burke County, Georgia. With the vast majority of the CWA now on the cold side of the boundary, opted to remove any thunder chances from the forecast. Having said that, a rumble or two of thunder from elevated convection north of the warm front cannot be ruled out, though any severe weather should remain to our south. Rain ends from west to east towards evening followed by gradual clearing at night. Low temperatures Saturday night will depend on how quickly skies clear out but should range from the lower to mid 30s in the northern Midlands to the upper 30s to near 40 degrees elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Dry with near average temperatures expected.

Low pressure system continues to move away from the region during the short term period as high pressure begins to build into the area. Meanwhile, upper ridging is forecast to move over the region as we head into the new work week. These features should lead to a dry period, with temperatures near average. Monday is forecast to be slightly warmer as the ridge moves more overhead.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Key message(s):

- Warming temps through the week, with low rain chances late week.

Broad ridging is expected to be the main upper feature driving the weather through much of the week ahead. A weak surface high is also anticipated to generally remain in place through the week. An upper trough is forecast to move through the northern tier of states around midweek, but does little for local sensible weather. Stronger ridging looks possible after this ahead of a potential system late in the week into next weekend. As a result of these factors, dry conditions are anticipated to persist through much of the week as temperatures warm. The next chance for any rain isn't expected to arrive until the end of the week ahead or into the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Expect Deteriorating Conditions at the Terminals this Morning....

VFR conditions continue at the terminals tonight but this is expected to change quickly as daybreak approaches. Radar imagery shows rain moving in from the west and this will likely cause restrictions as the precipitation picks up in intensity. Ceilings are also expected to quickly fall into the MVFR category or lower by daybreak. Cloud bases continue to fall on Saturday and could remain around IFR or LIFR levels through the end of the current TAF period, though rain should taper off towards evening.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Restrictions are likely to continue Saturday night as the storm system moves east of the region with improving conditions Sunday morning. No significant aviation impacts currently expected during the Sunday afternoon to Wednesday period.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.