textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Freezing rain has changed over to rain this evening, with rain gradually moving out over the next several hours. Behind this system, a very cold week is on tap. Daily highs are forecast to be in the 40s with overnight lows in the upper teens to mid 20s through this weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Cold arctic air moves in behind this system with well below normal temperatures expected through the week. A Cold Weather Advisory will be issued for tonight and tomorrow morning to account for wind chills in the upper single digits or lower teens.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Cold arctic air moves in behind this system with well below normal temperatures expected through the week. A Cold Weather Advisory will be issued for tonight and tomorrow morning to account for wind chills in the upper single digits or lower teens.

Our winter storm, as of midnight Monday, is currently on its way out with temperatures actually rising slightly into the mid or upper 30s ahead of the real front pushing through early Monday morning. Behind this, confidence is high in a cold, arctic airmass overspreading the region and remaining in place for much of the week. Some of that will be via reinforcements of said arctic air, but confidence is quite high in temperatures 10F-20F below normal for much of the next week. Ensembles and operational models are in good agreement with this, as the physics based guidance & AI Guidance across the board is indicative of high probabilities of 2m temp anomalies <10F below normal, with their mean 2m temp anomalies for the 7 day period of 7p today through 7p next Monday (2/3/26) an impressive 10F to 15F below normal values for this time of year. This will equate to multiple days of highs only in the 40s and lows routinely in the 20s. Right now, tonight looks to be our coldest night as the frigid airmass that drove the CONUS scale winter storm over the weekend shifts southeastward. Lows tonight are forecast to be in the teens across the area and surface winds likely will stay 5-10 mph within this airmass as the surface high remains to our west. This should yield 8F-15F wind chills early Tuesday morning, and we will issue a Cold Weather Advisory from 10p this evening through 9a Tuesday to account for this. Confidence is growing that we will see another airmass this cold over the upcoming weekend, so we may need advisories then although it is too early to determine that with any precision. Be sure to take steps to protect your house and pipes from any pipe bursts by dripping faucets through this period at night.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Gradually improving conditions over the next several hours to eventually VFR.

Rain, moderate at times, continues streaming through the region at the start of the TAF period. Meanwhile, ceilings have been hovering around 500 ft at the terminals. Expect these ceilings to bounce back and forth from LIFR and IFR through around 10z or so, before improving. Rain is anticipated to end around then as well. Cloud cover dissipates, becoming VFR around 15z-16z through the rest of the period. Northwest winds pick up for the afternoon, gusting to around 20 kts at times before diminishing this evening, after 23z-00z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions, and mainly SKC, likely through Friday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...Ice Storm Warning until 4 AM EST early this morning for SCZ016- 018-020>022-025>031-037-115-116. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for SCZ035-038-041-135>137. GA...Ice Storm Warning until 4 AM EST early this morning for GAZ040- 063>065. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for GAZ077.