textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Precipitation chances through the week have generally decreased. Fire weather concerns return for the weekend. Aviation discussion updated for 00Z TAFs

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. A warming trend is expected through the late week before temperatures fall closer to normal with a backdoor front moving in late Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: A warming trend is expected through the late week before temperatures fall closer to normal with a backdoor front moving in late Friday.

A cool night (temps several degrees cooler than average) can be expected. Overnight lows in the northern portions of the forecast area could dip down to the mid to upper 30s as high pressure settles into the Mid-Atlantic. There is some question just how cold it will get; however, as some high clouds and some wind in the boundary layer could hinder ideal cooling conditions somewhat. After tonight, a warming trend is expected through the end of the week as ridging slides over the area from the west. By Friday, the 500 mb heights are forecast to be above the NAEFS 97.5 percentile over the area, aiding in temps being well above average once again. Guidance continues to be in good agreement that another strong, albeit mostly dry, front moves through the area late Friday into early Saturday. As of now, just some slight chances for precipitation exist in the northern forecast area with this front, which seems reasonable at this point due in part to the timing of it. Behind this front, models are indicating very strong high pressure (NAEFS near the climatological max) moving in, causing a pretty strong pressure gradient resulting in gusty winds. Confidence is also fairly high at this point that very dry air moves in as well, resulting in additional fire danger concerns as we head into the weekend. Will have to continue monitoring for any wind and/or fire highlights.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR cloud cover is forecast to hang around the area for much of the forecast period. Surface high pressure across the Mid- Atlantic continues to influence our weather with very dry low- level air locked into place and easterly flow the primary wind component. At AGS/DNL/OGB, weak isentropic lift atop this surface high has continued to yield a persistent cloud deck around 4-5 kft throughout the day, with this showing some signs of slowly expanding northward with time. Expecting this kind of weather to remain in place across the area through much of the forecast period as the pattern remains relatively stagnant and persistent isentropic lift remains in place across the Augusta sites. Regardless, these cigs will remain VFR although may come close to the upper end of MVFR at times. Winds should slowly veer from the easterly direction to southeasterly as we get towards the end of the 24 hour period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Mainly VFR conditions are expected for the second half of the week. Another cold front will move through Friday night, ushering in another reinforcing cool and dry air mass for the weekend. Some gusty winds are possible Saturday behind the front.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.