textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No appreciable changes to Key Messages as the weather remains fairly quiet through the seven day forecast period. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Dry weather continues into next week with near normal daytime temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Dry weather continues into next week with near normal daytime temperatures.

A bit breezy out of the north to northeast this afternoon under mostly clear skies as high pressure lingers over the Northeast and a weak disturbance is positioned offshore. The pressure gradient as expected will provide elevated winds through the weekend, making it feel cooler but gusts are not expected to reach Lake Wind Advisory criteria at this time. Dewpoints this afternoon are running a bit lower than initial guidance suggested, so values were knocked down a few degrees to bring RH values down just slightly. Expect dry weather to continue through at least the middle of next week, with daytime temperatures around seasonal values and highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s today and the lower 70s on Sunday. Upper ridging moves slowly east during the early to middle portion of next week, while the surface high retains a robust presence over the eastern seaboard. This will result in slightly warmer temperatures with forecast highs in the lower to mid 70s Monday and Tuesday, perhaps nudging toward the upper 70s on Wednesday, with fairly high confidence given very small NBM IQRs. As is typical during this type of dry autumnal pattern, warm days will be followed by cool nights with near to below normal overnight temperatures. Very low-end rain chances start to return late in the forecast period as moisture starts to return with a potential system lingering off the Carolina's coast late next week, but it is more likely the region remains dry through the end of October.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours.

High pressure and dry air continues to dominate the region. A tightening pressure gradient has resulted in some gusty northeasterly winds this afternoon with most seeing winds around 10 to 12 knots with gusts around 20 knots. Winds should remain elevated into the evening before diminishing a bit to 6 to 9 knots overnight. A strong LLJ will help limit fog development tonight. More of the same is expected for Sunday with winds becoming breezy from the northeast by midmorning. Mostly clear skies are expected with some possible FEW-SCT VFR clouds at OGB with Atlantic moisture coming onshore.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Breezy northeast winds expected to persist into next week with wind gusts over 20 knots each day.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.