textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Rain and thunderstorm chances continue to end the weekend with a more typical summertime pattern returning next week.

DISCUSSION

- 1. Rain and thunderstorm chances continue to end the weekend with a more typical summertime pattern returning next week.

The activity from this afternoon and evening has moved out of the area save for a couple light showers in Chesterfield County. A weak shortwave continues trekking through the larger scale flow, leaving subsidence behind it. Because of this, the rain chances into the morning hours is very low.

Another shortwave translating around the base of a larger scale trough is expected to move through the region today, sparking a round of showers and storms again this afternoon and evening. As with Saturday, there is plenty of moisture available to produce locally heavy rains. However, latest hi-res guidance has suggested the PWATs won't quite be as high as previously forecast, but still around the 2" mark. In addition, storm motion is expected to be faster than Saturday due to stronger winds aloft. Locally heavy rain remains possible, but the threat for flash flooding is lower than it was Saturday. If training occurs or heavy rain ends up over areas that saw a lot of rain Saturday, there could be localized flooding. Due to the stronger winds aloft, and resulting shear, a strong storm or two with gusty winds is also possible.

A closed low is forecast to break off of the main upper trough early in the week ahead, meandering over the Tennessee Valley for a while. As such, daily chances for showers and storms continue through much of the week ahead.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Widespread restrictions expected through mid morning before improving this afternoon with another round of showers and storms.

Widespread IFR/MVFR cigs in place and expected to continue until around 14-15z when cigs begin improving to MVFR and then eventually VFR by afternoon. Little change in the air mass from yesterday and again expect scattered to widespread convection develop after 18z. Winds should be a bit stronger today and from the south around 10 knots. Restrictions possible in convection followed by another night of stratus redevelopment with cigs falling to MVFR/IFR into Monday morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Periodic rain and restrictions continue into early next week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.