textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Cooler but dry conditions are expected this weekend. Temperatures gradually return to near to above normal values next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Cooler but dry conditions are expected this weekend. Temperatures gradually return to near to above normal values next week.

Wedge conditions appear to be gradually eroding already early this morning as Nighttime Microphysics imagery reveals the strato-cu deck slowly breaking up, especially toward the SC/NC border. This comes as a push of dry air in seen into NC where surface dewpoints are falling into the mid to upper 40s. This is largely due to the base of the upper trough pivoting offshore with northerly to northwesterly flow now ensuing. Despite gradually clearing skies today, fairly weak but persistent CAA should keep high temperatures in the low to mid 70s. This should also bring another much cooler night where overnight lows into Saturday may fall into the upper 40s to low 50s. A couple spots nearing the mid 40s is not out of question. Over the weekend, the upper trough fully cuts off, with a cut off low meandering off the Northeast coast, keeping a general troughing pattern over the region as a bit of a blocking pattern sets up with the ridge over the central CONUS and another cut off low near British Columbia/Alberta Canada. In terms of sensible weather, dry conditions likely persist with PWAT's well under 1", but temperatures gradually warm toward the low to mid 80s. Overall, a mild/nice weekend appears to be in store.

Next week, the synoptic pattern gets more murky as the remnants/moisture of what is currently Hurricane Polo likely gets picked up in the prevailing flow and may interact with a sharp shortwave digging into southern CA/the Four Corners region during the early to mid week. While the exact evolution of the upper level pattern is uncertain, ensemble guidance and global models indicate at least a period of ridging is likely ahead of the aforementioned trough, bringing back temperatures near to above normal for the week.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals through the valid TAF period.

Satellite imagery early this morning is showing clear or mostly clear skies across the Midlands and CSRA. Drier air will continue to push into the region through the day, ensuring SKC at all terminals. Surface winds will continue to be N-NELY with a few gusts of 15-20 kts at times today. Winds then decouple this evening, becoming light and variable to calm for the overnight period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions expected through the extended period.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.