textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Key Message reflecting the latest precipitation trends this morning and warming temperatures this weekend. Aviation discussion updated for 06z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. A more typical summer-like pattern expected this week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: A more typical summer-like pattern expected this week.

A trough digging down into the southeast continues to move through our area this morning. As the main front passes overhead, a slight chance of scattered showers may redevelop near daybreak, mainly north of I-20. However, without upper- level support, activity should remain minimal with a limited severe threat as well. Winds will also be quite gusty throughout the day as heights fall behind the front. The boundary is expected to stall and linger just south of our area through the week. Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening, but deeper westerly flow will bring in drier air, limiting overall coverage to mainly spotty pop-up activity.

Brief drying is expected Wednesday as northwest flow brings in cooler and drier weather. By the latter half of the week, a weakness developing in the upper trough splits the ridge over the Desert Southwest and western Atlantic, supporting a return of diurnal convection. Temperatures will also trend upward into this weekend, as ridging restrengthens and dominates on Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures are expected to push into the 90s with some global models hinting at upper 90s early next week. Heat indices could also surpass the 100 degree mark. While details remain uncertain, heat headlines may become necessary for portions of the area depending on how much afternoon mixing occurs.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR Conditions Expected.

VFR conditions currently in place at all terminals with winds out of the southwest around 10 knots. A shortwave moving through Georgia is leading to a line of showers that continues to weaken as it moves east. High resolution guidance continues to favor showers weakening and not impacting the terminals. MVFR ceilings moving into Georgia may approach the terminals, although there remains uncertainty as to whether or not restrictions will be observed. For now, have included sct025 at all terminals except OGB but a brief period of MVFR ceilings remains possible but confidence is not high enough to include in TEMPO group. Gusty winds expected today with winds shifting more westerly and gusts between 20-25 knots. Winds shift more northwesterly as a front moves through tonight with gusts subsiding.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...For the remainder of the week, diurnally-driven widely scattered convection is expected.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.