textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Removed discussion regarding this afternoon's temperature and added mention of thunderstorm chances for Sunday in the CSRA. Aviation updated for 00z issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. High confidence in above normal temperatures as we get into next week. Rain chances arrive by the middle to end of next week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: High confidence in above normal temperatures as we get into next week. Rain chances arrive by the middle to end of next week.

Confidence remains high in the forecast over the next 7 days, with limited weather impacts expected until Thursday or Friday of next week. We will begin really warming up today as surface high pressure shifts to our east & upper level ridging begins to overspread the region. A deep trough is forecast to dig into the central Rockies over the next 24 hours, which will only help to amplify the mid and upper level heights across the eastern CONUS through early next week. Sensible weather will be driven by the combination of the ridging & the surface high being to our east. Moisture is expected to be higher than it has been as persistent onshore flow allows for dewpoints to bump up into the low and mid 60s for much of the next 7 days. One interesting nugget within this forecast is the chance for showers/storms Sunday afternoon. Guidance shows an inverted surface trough coinciding with a weakness in the 500 hPa heights Sunday afternoon, in addition to fairly robust CAPE (HREF mean suggests 1500-2000 j/kg). The greatest concentration of convection looks to be across central GA closer to the weakness in the heights. However, guidance has been increasing convection gradually over the last couple of days so that may continue. Beyond that, the anomalously warm temps are the most impactful weather feature. Temps in the low to mid 90s are expected Sunday through Wednesday before a slow moving front arrives Thursday/Friday and brings an increase in rain chances.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions likely through the valid TAF period. Slight chance of brief, shallow fog at AGS.

High pressure located offshore will keep winds light and variable to calm early this morning with speeds increasing out of the south/southwest after sunrise. Windspeeds remain less than 10 kts through this afternoon before returning to light and variable this evening. The air mass in general remains very dry, but some shallow moisture return to the low levels is possible with the onshore flow. This setup may favor brief patchy fog at the Augusta sites (AGS/DNL), though model guidance remains pessimistic. Overall, significant impacts to aviation are unlikely and any restrictions near bodies of water should be minimal.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture increases early Sunday and the first part of next week which may lead to early morning fog or stratus. Shower and thunderstorm chances return mid week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.