textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Removed mention of today verbiage from key messages. Monitoring a complex of strong to severe thunderstorms in western North Carolina. This activity should dissipate before reaching our area. Aviation discussion updated for 00z update.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. The stretch of dangerous heat continues.

- 2. Storm coverage more limited again tomorrow, with increasing potential late week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: The stretch of dangerous heat continues.

Tomorrow a weak front will move into the area and while overall temperatures will remain similar, it will likely usher in some slightly drier low level air into the western portion of the forecast area. Heat indices will likely still remain elevated, although higher confidence that areas north and west of I-20 remain below Heat Advisory criteria so have left them out of any heat products with this package. Blended guidance continues to favor max heat indices around 105F each day through Friday so will need to evaluate each day the need for a potential Heat Advisory through the end of the week. Regardless, significant relief from the heat remains unlikely until the weekend when the ridge finally breaks down and there will be increased chances for precipitation.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Storm coverage more limited again tomorrow, with increasing potential late week into the weekend.

Only a few showers managed to develop this evening across the Midlands and are starting to dissipate. We continue to monitor a complex of thunderstorms moving through North Carolina, but this activity is expected to dissipate prior to reaching the forecast area.

Similar capping is expected tomorrow which will limit any convection even with some weak convergence along a surface front. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon Wednesday and Thursday as moisture begins to increase with widespread convection Friday through the weekend with a robust mid-level trough moving into the eastern CONUS and deep layer southwest flow leading to increased moisture.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.

Evening satellite imagery shows a few passing cumulus moving across the region. A couple of showers have developed but are not expected to reach the terminals. We are also monitoring a complex of strong to severe thunderstorms across western North Carolina but model guidance continues to show this convection dissipating prior to reaching the terminals and should only result in high level cloudiness passing overhead. Winds tonight should become light and variable, picking up around midday out of the northwest. More are cumulus expected to develop into the afternoon hours. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be completely ruled out tomorrow afternoon or evening, especially at OGB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal chances for thunderstorms increase each day through the end of the week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for SCZ016-022- 027>031-035-037-038-041-135>137. GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for GAZ064-065- 077.