textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Elevated fire weather conditions should develop this afternoon. PoP's have decreased with the mid week frontal passage. Aviation discussion updated for 12z forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon.

- 2. Another cold front moves through mid week with rain chances. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected with temperatures warming above normal into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon.

Behind yesterday's cold front a drier airmass is shifting into the region with surface dew points already falling into the lower 50s and values into the lower 40s pushing into northern NC. Northeasterly flow will continue to advect this drier air into the region today as minimum RH values this afternoon should near critical values between 25-30%. A couple spots falling below 25% will be possible. A tight pressure gradient along with lingering 25- 30 kts of flow around 925mb should allow gusts to 15-20 mph to mix down through later this morning and into the afternoon before decaying the remainder of the day. Overall, this combination should result in elevated fire weather conditions across the area today.

Key Message 2: Another cold front moves through mid week with rain chances. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected with temperatures warming above normal into next weekend.

The main change with the mid week front is the trend toward a drier solution across ensemble and global models. This is not very surprising considering mean PWAT values struggle to reach above 1.0- 1.10" across the area with convergence along the front not very impressive. The timing of fropa continues to appear as late Wednesday into early Thursday. As some high-res guidance reaches toward this period, there continues to be an indication of isolated to perhaps scattered showers developing Wednesday evening mainly toward the Pee Dee. A look at the recent REFS solution does indicate this potential as well where limited elevated instability could allow for a couple thunderstorms. The 18z MPAS-RRFS also shows around 200-600 J/kg of MLCAPE in the evening hours with a broken line of showers/storms moving through so despite the trend toward a drier solution, at least slight chance PoP's seem reasonable east of the I-26 corridor.

Drier conditions then are expected behind this front, though upper troughing is expected to linger into Friday, keeping temperatures near normal. After this, a sharp upper ridge is displayed shifting into the region this weekend across global models. This strong ridge is expected to bring above normal temperatures this weekend, possibly into next week. IQR ranges Saturday through Tuesday next week are fairly small and hint at high temperatures each day reaching into the 90s. This period of above normal temperatures is highlighted well in the EC EFI as values reach between 0.7-0.8 starting Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions remain likely through the period.

Surface low in the northern Gulf will continue to push eastward along a cold front, moving across central Florida this afternoon, then off the eastern Florida coast tonight. High pressure off to our north will keep a tight pressure gradient across the area into the afternoon hours before weakening this evening and tonight as the low moves further east. This will keep northeasterly surface winds around 10 knots for much of the day, with wind gusts between 15-20 knots expected to occur. Wind will begin to weaken late this afternoon, turning more east/southeasterly. There should be plenty of cloud cover today associated with the area of low pressure as Gulf moisture tracks northeastward. However ceilings remain vfr, with most cloud heights above 5kft. As the low moves into the Atlantic into tonight, there should be some additional thinning and lifting of any mid-level cloudiness, leaving only some thin scattered cirrus in its wake.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Wednesday over the northern and eastern Midland. Otherwise no rainfall with mainly vfr conditions expected.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.