textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 06z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Slightly above average temperatures with chances for afternoon storms the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1. Slightly above average temperatures with chances for afternoon storms the second half of the week.

Drier air with dewpoints in the low to mid-60s have ushered in behind the cold front. Expect relatively quick recovery with high pressure offshore and strengthening ridging aloft over the central CONUS moving back into the area. While ensemble guidance does not indicate this ridge will be nearly as strong as last week, expect a warming trend most notable for the second half of the week and into the weekend with blended guidance favoring temperatures in the low to mid 90s, around 5 to 10 degrees above normal. This coupled with increasing low level moisture with dewpoints in the upper-60s to low-70s will likely push heat indices up towards the triple digits once again.

Moisture remains limited today with forecast soundings indicating a relatively strong warm nose aloft, keeping much of the area capped, preventing showers and storms from developing over much of the area. While an isolated shower or storm will be possible in the southernmost portions of the forecast area, generally do not expect a significant moisture increase until Wednesday when surface high pressure moves offshore and weak low pressure along the Gulf is picked up by the developing southwesterly flow. This will lead to some diurnal storm chances Wednesday and Thursday, favoring the southern forecast area but it is not until a weak front approaches from the northwest lead to higher precip chances Friday and into the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions favored during the 24 hour forecast period.

A drier air mass continues to build into the region with high pressure centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Satellite imagery shows some mid level clouds across the Upstate with higher level clouds sinking southward through the CSRA and more high clouds arriving from the OH Valley. Stratus/fog not expected with the drier air mass although cannot totally rule out some river valley fog at AGS but confidence too low to include in the forecast. Light winds pick up from the east around 10 knots after 14z with some gusts possible up to 18 knots into the afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Dry through mid-weeek before diurnal storm chances return in the later part of the week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.