textproduct: Columbia

SYNOPSIS

An arctic air mass continues to move in behind a cold front that moved through earlier today, and will remain in place into Monday night. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect through Monday morning. Weak ridging should then allow for air mass recovery by the middle of next week. The next chance of rain arrives late in the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/

Key message(s):

- Dangerously cold weather likely tonight and Monday morning with a Cold Weather Advisory in effect through 10 AM Monday.

- Breezy winds with gusts to 25-30 mph this evening, diminishing overnight. A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect through 4 AM Monday morning.

The cold front that passed through the region earlier today has now made its way offshore. Behind it, very dry air has moved into the region, with current dewpoints in the single digits at at several locations. This is about 40-50 degrees lower than last night at this time. In addition, winds have been gusting to 30 mph at times this afternoon and evening. As we head into tonight, expect the winds to gradually diminish as the pressure gradient between the exiting front and approaching high relaxes some. Due to the extremely dry air in place, temperatures are expected to drop rather quickly. Temperatures in the northern and western portions of the forecast area have already dropped to near freezing. Lows are forecast to drop to the upper teens to around 20 by daybreak, but because of the wind, wind chill values are forecast to be in the 10-15 degree range. A few readings could drop into the single digits. Because of the winds and cold temps, a Cold Weather Advisory is in effect tonight through 10 AM Monday and a Lake Wind Advisory is in effect through 4 AM Monday.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Temperatures well below average Monday into Monday night, moderating Tuesday.

Frigid air will remain over the region both days as an arctic high pressure system traverses the region. The key messages remain unchanged as wind chills will be dangerously cold tomorrow morning, especially for those who have outdoor activities in the early morning hours. Air temperatures are expected to be in the upper teens, with wind chills as low as the single digits. Please exercise caution and bundle up! Highs are forecast to only rise back up into the upper 30s or low 40s through the day despite sunshine throughout the day. The surface high is forecast to be near or atop the area, especially the southeastern forecast area, by Monday night. This will promote near ideal radiational cooling conditions, with lows ranging from the upper teens to mid 20s. With temperatures barely climbing into the 30s on Monday, please remember to continue dripping your pipes through Tuesday morning. Temps this cold tend to lead to frozen pipe problems across the area, so please be aware of this threat! By Tuesday afternoon, the temps should begin warming back up into the mid 50s as the surface high shifts offshore.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Key message(s):

- Above average temperatures with chance of rain late week.

The progressive, transient pattern should continue into the long term. HEights are forecast to quickly begin rising on Wednesday as the pattern to our west again begins amplifying. Westerly and southwesterly flow will become common across the eastern CONUS as a result, with a warming trend expected both Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will be back near normal on Wednesday (upper 50s to around 60) and then above normal on Thursday as a cold front approaches (mid to upper 60s). Rain chances are expected to quickly increase on Thursday night and Friday as the deep trough and surface cold front approach from the west and bring an increase in moisture as well. Generally expect the front to be in and out on Thursday night and early Friday, with dry conditions returning by Friday afternoon. The airmass behind the front looks cooler than the one preceding it, but temps look like they'll only fall to back to near/slightly below normal for the Fri-Sun period.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

North to northwesterly winds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts over 20 knots continue this evening as strong cold advection continues over the region. Winds should begin to subside after midnight as the pressure gradient weakens and the wind direction will gradually shift more northeasterly after sunrise Monday with winds generally 5 knots or so in the afternoon. A very dry air mass has settled over the region with single digit dewpoints and this will prevent fog concerns.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Widespread restrictions unlikely in the extended as a dry air is in place through at least Thursday when potential rain chances move in.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for SCZ016-018- 020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for SCZ016-018- 020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137. GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for GAZ040-063>065- 077. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ040- 063>065-077.