textproduct: Columbia

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Lake Wind Advisory has been allowed to expire. Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Dry weather continues through the week with a gradual warming trend.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Dry weather continues through the week with a gradual warming trend.

Northeasterly winds continue to decay this evening as the pressure gradient loosens with the mid-level low and associated coastal low becoming further displaced off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Due to this, the Lake Wind Advisory has been allowed to expire on time. Tonight, clear skies are expected once again, setting the stage for solid radiational cooling conditions. The main limiting factor in overnight low temperatures appears to be elevated winds overnight as a 25-30 kt LLJ sets up. Despite this, lows into the lower 40s are expected, though a few spots could drop into the upper 30s.

Heading into the rest of the work week, minimal change in the forecast is seen. Reinforcing high pressure should build back in, possibly with brief shortwave ridging into the mid to late week. This pattern should keep much drier air in place (PWAT's under 0.50"), but MOS/NBM and ensemble guidance suggests temperatures should gradually reach closer to normal by the mid to late week. At this time, there remains little confidence in any meaningful rain even into next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions expected to prevail.

Gusty winds have subsided with sunset and expected to remain under 10 knots overnight from the northeast. A coastal low offshore combined with high pressure ridging down the East Coast will keep an enhanced pressure gradient over the region and winds will pick up after 14z to around 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots through around 18z before subsiding through the late afternoon. There is a 30 knot low level jet overnight so marginal LLWS possible but think surface winds stay up enough.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Probability of restrictions through the extended period is low.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.

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