textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered dew points for this afternoon and tomorrow and lowered low temps for tonight. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Dry conditions persist into next week with temperatures initially near normal warming back above normal by the mid week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry conditions persist into next week with temperatures initially near normal warming back above normal by the mid week.

Dry air (PWAT's below 0.50") continues to be filtered into the region due to the Nor'easter affecting the Mid-Atlantic and New England areas this weekend. This is leading to plentiful sunshine and low dew points (currently in the upper 30s to lower 40s across the forecast area). Temperatures are expected to top out near average this afternoon. With the Nor'easter meandering the next few days due to a blocking pattern, expect similar conditions as we head into the new work week. Additionally, efficient radiational cooling should yield cool conditions the next couple nights with overnight lows in the low to mid 50s, with some areas dropping into the upper 40s tonight again. Heading into next week, the blocking pattern from the closed upper low associated with the Nor'easter along with the central CONUS ridge begins to break down as a sharp trough likely digs into the western US. This feature is expected to interact with the remnant moisture from Hurricane Polo as it shifts from the Pacific into the Four Corners region, thus some uncertainty remains in the exact evolution of the trough. Despite this, there is continued agreement across global ensemble models that gradual 500mb height rises are expected over the FA into the mid week, bringing temperatures back to slightly above normal. Moisture should gradually increase as well with returning southerly to southwesterly low level flow, but mostly dry weather is expected much of the week.

Toward the end of the forecast period is when the aforementioned trough could begin shifting into the central CONUS and possible suppression of the upper ridge could aid in bringing back at least isolated diurnal shower chances.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Relatively quiet taf period will continue into Sunday. VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals through the valid TAF period.

With high pressure over the area, along with a very dry airmass, vfr conditions are expected to prevail through the next 24 hours at all taf locations. Exception may be brief shallow ground/river fog at ags, but not enough impact to place in the taf. Winds generally out of the north between 5-10 knots through the afternoon hours, becoming mostly light and variable to calm again overnight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions expected through the extended period.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.