textproduct: Columbia
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Forecast remains on track. Aviation discussion updated for 06z TAFs.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. Dry conditions with above normal temperatures are expected into Friday.
- 2. Rain chances may enter late in the week through this weekend.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry conditions with above normal temperatures are expected into Friday.
Ridging is expected to build into the region through the mid week as a deep trough shifts into the southwestern CONUS. At the surface, high pressure is expected to shift into Mid-Atlantic, keeping drier in place until it shifts offshore into the late week, turning low level flow out of the south. Overall, this pattern is expected to yield daily high temperatures into the upper 80s to low 90s through at least Friday with mostly dry weather continuing. It is worth noting moisture will slowly uptick through the remainder of the week, but deeper advection off the Gulf is not expected until this weekend.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain chances may enter late in the week through this weekend.
As the aforementioned trough out west shifts eastward and the ridge becomes increasingly suppressed/displaced toward the east, strong moisture advection is expected to begin off the Gulf into the Southeast. LREF probabilities for PWAT's greater than 2" reach between 60-70% Saturday and Sunday and with subtle shortwave forcing expected, isolated to scattered showers/storms are possible each day. Ensemble guidance hints that a cold front could near the region into early next week, possibly bringing more rain chances, but uncertainty in timing still exists. With increased rain chances this weekend, temperatures are trending back closer to normal
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR conditions expected through the 24hr TAF period.
High pressure continues to reside over the region with a dry air mass in place. Satellite imagery shows a few higher clouds slowly moving through the area but skies should remain mostly clear through the forecast period. Low crossover temps and the drier air mass in place should prevent fog concerns for one more night. Calm winds expected to only increase a bit through the day under high pressure and generally be variable around 5 knots.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Mostly VFR in the extended with increasing moisture by the end of the week.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None. GA...None.
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