textproduct: Columbia
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Little change to the overall forecast. Aviation discussion updated for 00z.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. Above average temperatures continue through the end of the week.
- 2. Storm coverage will be limited again today, with increasing potential late week into the weekend.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Above average temperatures continue through the end of the week.
Temperatures will likely be similar each day through the end of the week with the interquartile range of blended guidance showing limited spread leading to relatively high confidence in highs in the mid to upper 90s each day through Friday. A weak front moving through the area today will do little to affect temperatures but will push in some slightly drier air, allowing for increased drier air mixing to the surface. Dew points as a result will likely dip to or below 70F during the afternoon today, tomorrow and Thursday. This will likely still lead to heat indices between 100F to 105F, although keep us below Heat Advisory criteria. Moisture increases Friday as the ridge begins to break down. A decrease in temperatures would be offset by the moisture increase, although higher chances for showers and storms will also limit temperatures. More seasonable conditions expected for the weekend, finally providing us a break from the oppressive heat.
KEY MESSAGE 2: Storm coverage will be limited again today, with increasing potential late week into the weekend.
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon Wednesday and Thursday, favoring the eastern portion of the forecast area where moisture will be highest and the sea breeze and stalled weak surface boundary will provide some forcing. As the upper ridge breaks down Friday and Saturday, more widespread showers and storms expected.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.
A very weak bounday has push through the area this afternoon, ushering a slightly drier airmass than the completely oppressive one that we have had in place for several weeks now. Fair weather cumulus dotted the skies today and is now diminishing. With below normal PWs and light low-level winds expected through 00z tomorrow, went with one-line TAF forecasts for this package. Very little weather is expected and only a few, VFR clouds are forecast tomorrow.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal chances for thunderstorms increase through the week, peaking this weekend.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None. GA...None.
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