textproduct: Columbia

SYNOPSIS

High confidence that upper ridging brings a steady warming trend for the remainder of the week. Expect well above normal temperatures through at least Friday, and likely into the weekend. Dry conditions are also likely to continue through the upcoming weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Dry with well above normal temperatures this Christmas Eve.

Northwesterly flow aloft, along with surface winds turning more northwesterly through the morning, will bring some downsloping winds and associated diabatic warming across much of the forecast area. This pattern should also keep skies mostly clear, with a good amount of sunshine through the daytime hours. Blended guidance showing afternoon high temperatures in the middle 70s over the northern/central Midlands, with upper 70s possible across the CSRA. These will be near our daily record highs for Christmas Eve. Milder conditions will continue into the overnight hours with low temperatures only dropping into the upper 40s to the lower 50s. Don't worry though kiddos, even with this warmth and lack of snow across the area, we'd be willing to bet that Santa Clause will still find a way to your homes this Christmas Eve night.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Near record high temps for Christmas Day.

Broad deep ridging will continue to build into the central US, resulting in northwesterly flow aloft and well above average heights- thicknesses downstream across our area. This will yield surface temps that will climb into the mid-upper 70's across the area Christmas day; guidance remains extremely consistent with the temp forecast, as only two degrees separates the 10-90th percentiles in the NBM. This will yield, at least, a top 5 warmest Christmas Day for both Columbia and Augusta; see Climate Section below for more specifics on the daily records. Based on the forecast ensemble distributions, CAE has a roughly 15% chance to set the record for Christmas day. AGS is a slightly lower chance but both CAE and AGS have a 95% chance to be a top 5 warmest Christmas.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Key message(s):

- Brief cooldown for parts of the area Friday, before a return to near record high temps over the weekend.

- Strong cold front arrives Monday to usher in a well below average airmass.

As guidance has steadily resolved the strong pacific trough better, the forecast has changed a bit for Friday over the last few cycles. A very fast moving trough will eject out of the strong pacific jet and then quickly round the ridge axis in the central US, with a broad weak surface low reflection. This will allow for some modest moisture advection and cloud cover to develop across NC, stretching down into northern SC. While rain looks unlikely, this cloud cover and weak trough will set up a notable temperature gradient across the northern Midlands and Pee Dee with high temps in the low 60's, while temps in Augusta climb into the mid 70's. This shortwave aloft will be quick moving and temps quickly bounce back up Saturday and Sunday has ridging fills, with a return to temps 10-20 degrees above normal. As the residual pacific trough finally ejects eastward, a strong low and surface front will dig down into the eastern half of the US and bring well below average temps throughout next week.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through 06Z Thursday, with a slim possibility of patchy ground fog during the early morning.

Northwesterly wind pattern aloft is keeping skies mostly clear across the region. At the surface, light southwesterly winds will begin to turn to more northwesterly through the day, although wind speeds will only be around 5 knots at best for most areas. The northwesterly winds will bring downsloping to the region, which will continue the mostly clear skies and vfr conditions through 06z on the 25th. After 06z, guidance showing some broken clouds around 10kft moving into the region, with possibly scattered clouds around 5kft. Conditions still vfr though.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A couple mornings with patchy fog or stratus seems possible into this weekend as low level moisture remains high.

CLIMATE

Daily Record High Temperatures for CAE and AGS:

Christmas Eve Records: - Columbia: 77 F (2015) - Augusta : 80 F (1964)

Christmas Day Records: - Columbia: 79 F (1955) - Augusta : 81 F (2015)

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.