textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Key messages updated. Aviation discussion updated for 06z TAF.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Drier conditions move in tomorrow and Friday before rain chances increase again this weekend and persist through early next week.

DISCUSSION

- 1. Drier conditions move in tomorrow and Friday before rain chances increase again this weekend and persist through early next week.

Whatever is left of the meager convection from earlier this evening has largely diminished across the area. A familiar forecast featuring dry conditions will follow as deep troughing continues to establish itself in the eastern CONUS. A cold front is forecast to gradually push through the area today, with much drier air than we have seen in weeks pushing in for Thursday and Friday. While afternoon highs are forecast to be near normal during this period, afternoon dewpoints falling into the low 60s both days will result in it feeling quite nice outside! For those hoping for a better setup for rain, there is hope on the horizon. Guidance continues to show a favorable setup beginning Saturday and lasting through early next week for daily showers/storms. The details of the synoptic pattern are somewhat uncertain but in general, the trough is forecast to retrograde westward, with the axis settling somewhere from southeastern Canada through the southern MS Valley. Southwesterly flow is expected to result in PWs rising back to near or above 2" for much of this period. The persistent troughing to our west, shown by the preponderance of guidance in varying degrees, should yield daily shortwaves in a moisture rich environment and help spark showers/storms. This is unlikely to knock out our drought by any stretch; however, the setup is quite good compared to the positioning of the trough over the past week. The differences in guidance result from some solutions favoring a full, blown cutoff low settling in the mid-MS valley by early next week, while some are more broad with the persistent troughing. Both will likely result in daily shower/storms, though.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions likely over the next 24 hours.

Light southwesterly winds early this morning will shift to the northwest after dawn as a front pushes through the region. Expect convective debris clouds to limit fog/stratus concerns and hi-res guidance keeps VFR conditions through the period. Northwesterly winds pick up to around 5 to 8 knots after 15z. Convection unlikely today given the dry air mass over the region.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Rain and restrictions become increasingly likely this weekend.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.