textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated key messages.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Near critical fire conditions likely Sunday.

- 2. A chilly night tonight but then temperatures warm into the middle week with slight chances for rain entering the forecast.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Near critical fire conditions likely Sunday.

With offshore high pressure developing overnight and into Sunday, winds will shift onshore. The pressure gradient will weaken however, so sustained and gusts will be lighter on Sunday generally 10-15 mph with gusts possibly up to 20 mph. RH's will remain low across the region, but some recovery is likely to our east across the coastal plain. Overall, this will lead near critical fire conditions given the fuel dryness but a Red Flag Warning is not expected to be issued at this time for Sunday.

As a reminder, in conjunction with the Red Flag Warning, SC and GA have issued burn ban notices that are in effect until further notice.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A chilly night tonight but then temperatures warm into the middle week with slight chances for rain entering the forecast.

Cold advection behind the front will slowly subside overnight tonight into Sunday as the surface high moves nearby. While not an ideal radiational cooling setup with some lingering winds, we will still dip down into the 30's across the area. The Pee Dee will likely have the best shot at getting down into the low 30's given proximity to the high and expected lighter winds. However, with dew points likely still in the low to mid 20s tonight, this makes frost formation difficult along with dry soil moisture. But, its very possible that some areas will get to near freezing in sheltered locations tonight within the county. So while a bit of compromise, a Frost Advisory was issued to cover the potential and headline the impacts to vegetation given that we are within the growing season now.

Not much change in the thinking heading into the week, as a familiar pattern takes shape as upper ridging near the NAEFS 90th percentile moves in with the surface high gradually shifting off shore. This should bring a return to southerly to southwesterly low level flow and temperatures that warm back above normal through at least the mid week. Global models and ensemble guidance indicate that as the FA finds itself on the western periphery on the surface high and upper ridge by late Tuesday, moisture makes a return to the area with GEFS and EC Ensemble PWAT's reaching above 150% by Wednesday. Increasing moisture along with a potential front nearing the Southeast sometime in the mid to late week could bring back rain chances to the area by Wednesday.

AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period.

High pressure over the Mid Atlantic will sink into North Carolina overnight, then move offshore during Sunday. Clear skies through sunrise will gradually give way to some increasing clouds on Sunday as some mid level moisture returns on the backside of the high, but bases will be 5K feet or above. Winds will gradually veer from the northeast this evening to the east and eventually southeast by later Sunday, but should be generally 5 knots overnight and 10 knots on Sunday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions likely into early next week as rain chances ramp up by late week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for SCZ016. GA...None.