textproduct: Columbia

SYNOPSIS

Above normal temperatures and mainly dry conditions are expected to continue through the weekend, though a brief cool down is expected for Friday. The passage of a strong cold front early next week brings much colder conditions to close out the year, though the chance of rain during the next seven days is relatively low.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Another afternoon with near record temperatures.

- Increased cloud cover tonight as a backdoor front nears.

The strong upper ridge is building into the region early this afternoon with temperatures already reaching the low to mid 70s. Temperatures should max out in the coming hours toward the upper 70s but a couple spots reaching 80F will be possible. Near record values will be likely at CAE (79F from 1955) and AGS (81F from 2015) this afternoon before a weak backdoor front nears the northern FA overnight tonight. There is still discrepancies in how far south this front will advance, but in general it looks like it'll reach the Pee Dee region near the end of this period with PWAT's right around 1". Overall, only some increased cloud cover is expected tonight, but a couple sprinkles toward daybreak would not be surprising. Lows tonight remain mild, in the low to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Brief cool down Friday, mainly for the northern Midlands. - Temperatures go well above average for Saturday once again.

A shortwave riding the periphery of the upper ridge is expected move through the eastern US. As result, a backdoor cold front is forecast to push into the Southeast. This should bring much cooler air to the region, but there is uncertainty in just how far south the front will make it. There remains plenty of spread in temperatures among the GEFS and ENS ensemble members for locations along and north of the I-26 corridor, leading to a lower confidence forecast. High temps in this area will be very dependent on the front. Spread among the ensemble members is much lower in the CSRA, indicating higher confidence, where temps are expected to reach the lower 70s. Cooler temps north of there, with 50s possible near the North Carolina border, leading to a large temp gradient across the region. Latest hi-res guidance indicates a stray shower could sneak into the far northern portions of the forecast area, but with the air being dry, probabilities are low (<10%). The upper shortwave moves east for Saturday, allowing the ridge to fill back in and aid in pushing the cold front out of the region. As a result, much warmer temps return for Saturday.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Key message(s):

- Relatively warm to start the week, followed by much colder air for midweek.

Another piece of shortwave energy is forecast to translate around the upper ridge, sending another backdoor cold front into the region on Sunday. Similar to Friday, temps depend a lot on how far south this front can make it, so there is some uncertainty in the high temperatures for Sunday due to this. Monday is trending warmer as guidance continues to slow the progression of an approaching cold front. Once the front moves through the area, much colder (10-15F below average) temps move into the region for midweek. In addtion to the colder weather, chances for shower activity arrive as the front moves through the region.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions likely majority of the TAF period but possible MVFR ceilings and visibility's Friday morning.

Mostly clear skies are seen this afternoon with winds turning out of the southwest to west-southwest around 7-10 kts. A couple gusts toward 15-20 kts will be possible this afternoon before subsiding this evening. As a weak backdoor front nears the Pee Dee region, mid level cloud cover is expected to increase this evening and tonight, though conditions likely remain VFR. Tonight, low level moisture ahead of the front increases and majority of guidance is indicating patchy fog after 07-09z with MVFR visibilities as well as some possible stratus developing toward Friday morning. Stratus development is a bit more uncertain as this will largely be dependent on how far south the front pushes and right now confidence in MVFR ceilings is low as the front likely remains north of the terminals. Ceilings then gradually scatter out toward the end of this period as winds become light and out of the southeast to south.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Lingering moisture could bring morning fog or stratus could occur into this weekend and possibly again on Monday.

CLIMATE

Daily Record High Temperatures for CAE and AGS:

Christmas Day Records: - Columbia: 79 F (1955) - Augusta : 81 F (2015)

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.