textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation updated for 00z TAFs. Otherwise, No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Drier and slightly cooler air continues into late in week.

- 2. Increasing moisture and rain chances return for the end of the week through the weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Drier and slightly cooler air continues into late in week.

An upper ridge over the Southeast area is expected to retrograde west before an upper low/inverted trough develops off the coast and breaks the ridge down. Meanwhile, at the surface a frontal boundary continues to march toward the Gulf coast states, ushering in a surface high pressure along with cooler temperatures and drier air. Temperatures will hang around the upper-80s to low-90s today and tomorrow before reaching the mid-90s by the weekend. Dew points are expected to be around 60F, with some spots dropping into the upper 50s this afternoon through Friday afternoon. All in all, seasonable temps can be expected tomorrow once again while relatively dry air remains in place through Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Increasing moisture and rain chances return for the end of the week through the weekend and into next week.

The aforementioned upper low/inverted trough is forecast to move westward for the end of the week into the weekend. As it does, moisture and rain chances begin to increase Friday into the weekend and into next week. The main change from previous forecasts is that guidance has trended toward a sooner arrival of rain chances to the area. Scattered showers and storms are anticipated to arrive at the end of the work week rather than the weekend. Rain chances generally continue into next week as increased moisture lingers in the area. PWs generally range between 1.5 and 2.0 with dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s. A relative lull in coverage is possible Sunday. The EFI signals warmer than average on Friday, but temps drop back to near normal for the remainder of the forecast period.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the 24hr forecast period.

Satellite imagery showing mainly clear skies with only a few passing higher cirrus. High pressure continues to dominate through this forecast period with winds light and variable to near calm overnight. Drier air in place tonight should prevent any fog/stratus concerns. Winds pick back up to around 5-6 knots after 15z mainly from an easterly to southeasterly direction.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Rain and restrictions unlikely for much of the week with increasing chances for showers and storms by this weekend.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.