textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. A typical summer pattern expected this week with increasing moisture and warming temperatures during the mid to late week period.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: A typical summer pattern expected this week with increasing moisture and warming temperatures during the mid to late week period.

For today and Tuesday, the surface ridging will shift far enough east to allow deeper moisture to push into the area. On Monday, the primary plume of 1.75"+ PWATs will stay primarily across Georgia, so the main rain chances are generally in the CSRA. This plume of higher PWAT's shifts east by Tuesday and yields higher rain chances across the entire area. Scattered daytime showers and thunderstorms are then expected each day through the end of the week with a fairly typically summer pattern in place. With the ridge in our vicinity, significant rainfall is unlikely. While PWAT's should climb above 1.75", QPF totals across all guidance is generally only 0.25-0.75" with some isolated higher amounts in areas that see repeated rounds of thunderstorms. The combination of heat and humidity could result in our first days of heat index values at or above 100 degrees on Thursday and Friday, though still below heat product criteria.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions the next 24 hours. Isolated showers and/or storms during the afternoon and evening.

Expect light southerly winds around 5 kts by late morning continuing into the afternoon. A weak front approaching from the north and an additional boundary to our west could bring an isolated shower/storm to the area in the CSRA later this morning, then later in the day at other taf locations in the Midlands of SC. Regional radar does show light precip returns west of the CSRA, but not much if any reaching the ground at this time. This will slowly push east and into the CSRA by late morning. Confidence in ags/dnl getting prolonged rain is low, so for now going with vcsh beginning at 15z, then keeping with prob30 after 18z for some thunder at those two sites. Remaining taf sites will not mention any vcsh at this time, but will continue with prob30s for this afternoon too. If a taf site is impacted, brief restrictions could be possible. Clouds remaining vfr outside of any storms, with broken cirrus and some mid- level cu/strato-cu possible.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Deeper moisture remains in place through the week leading to scattered, mainly diurnal, showers and thunderstorms.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.