textproduct: Columbia
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
No significant change in the forecast thinking; key message remains the same. Aviation discussion updated for the 12z TAFs.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. Shower and t-storm chances increase Friday to Sunday.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Shower and t-storm chances increase Friday to Sunday.
A push of slightly drier air moves through the forecast area today, limiting rain and t-storm chances. Moisture increases once again tonight into Friday as an upper ridge slides offshore and the Bermuda high remains in place. In response, PWATs increase from about 0.75" today to roughly 1.25" tomorrow. This should be enough to produce some shower and thunderstorm activity. Models suggested a bit more surface convergence tomorrow than we've seen recently, which is anticipated to lead to more coverage (still not widespread by any means) than Tuesday or Wednesday. An upper trough and associated cold front move toward the region for the weekend, keeping precipitation chances each day. The front is expected to move through the region on Sunday, leading to higher chances for some precipitation. However, the amounts expected are far from impressive and wouldn't be surprised if most locations see a 0.10" or less on Sunday. Prior to the front arriving, temps continue to run several degrees above average. Drier air, closer to normal temps, and quiet weather return for the start of next week.
AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Mainly VFR conditions prevail through the period.
High pressure offshore continues to circulate moisture into the area with southerly winds persisting overnight. Guidance which previously favored restrictions this morning has backed off, though some stratus may still affect OGB briefly. VFR conditions otherwise expected to return by 15z, with scattered cumulus clouds and southerly winds 6 to 10 knots through the day. Cumulus should dissipate this evening with mainly high clouds streaming overhead, and winds weakening to less than 5 kts. Guidance suggests another round of stratus tonight, but will wait for additional support before mentioning in the TAFs.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Some morning stratus is possible through the remainder of the week with increased moisture in place. Better chances for diurnal thunderstorms by the end of the week and into the weekend.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None. GA...None.
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