textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 06z TAF.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Drier conditions for the end of the week before rain chances ramp back up this weekend into early next week. Summerlike pattern expected again by the end of this forecast period.

DISCUSSION

- 1. Drier conditions for the end of the week before rain chances ramp back up this weekend into early next week. Summerlike pattern expected again by the end of this forecast period.

The forecast largely remains unchanged from the past day or so as guidance continues to hone in on the forecast over the next 7 days. The well-advertised cold front is pushing through the area as this is being typed, with a much deserved two-day break from the humidity expected through Friday. Dewpoints were down into the 50s to our north this afternoon, and with PWs less than 1" expected today and Friday, we are forecasting dewpoints to drop into the 50s here! While highs will be near normal (91F-94F) both days, it will be quite nice to not have oppressive humidity out there.

As we get into the weekend, the synoptic pattern is on track to deliver some rainfall to the region. The anomalous ridge/trough ying and yang that has been dominating the weather over the CONUS this week will begin to retrograde slightly as we head into the weekend. A sharp shortwave trough is forecast to dig into the central Plains as this occurs, with a broad surface low developing over the OH Valley. While we are sitting within ~10th percentile PWs the next two days, there remains a robust plume of PWs across the southern MS River Valley region. As the aforementioned trough and surface low develop and dig southeastward, southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to result in this reservoir of moisture to advect eastward and overspread the area this weekend and early next week. 2"+ PWs & southwesterly flow aloft is quite a good synoptic pattern for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this time of year. Given we have struggled to get rain recently, it is proper to hold some apprehension regarding rain chances. However, the synoptic pattern is favorable for numerous, efficient showers/storms beginning Saturday evening and lasting through Monday. The trough looks to weaken slowly as we go through next week but this plume of PWs appears that it will largely remain in place through the middle of next week. As such, daily showers and storms will remain a threat as the convective temp in that environment should be fairly low. Temps appear like they will be near to slightly below normal in this period depending on how much convection develops on a daily basis. Additionally, severe weather generally seems unlikely in this kind of set up given copious moisture profiles.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours.

Secondary front pushed through Columbia around 04z with northerly winds around 5 to 7 knots behind it and these winds are expected all terminals through much of the period, though it may turn more northwesterly during the afternoon hours with deep mixing expected. Otherwise, drier air should continue to move over the area with no convection anticipated and lower cloud cover expected.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Rain and restrictions become increasingly likely this weekend.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.