textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Light rainfall amounts over the last 24 hours plus some higher humidities is alleviating near term fire weather concerns. However, due to continued drought conditions the South Carolina Forestry Commission's State Foresters Burning Ban remains in effect until further notice. Updated aviation discussion for 06z update.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Scattered rain chances continue today, with several opportunities for additional light rainfall amounts over the next week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Scattered rain chances continue today, with several opportunities for additional light rainfall amounts over the next week.

Radar imagery early this morning continues to show mainly isolated light showers moving across the forecast area from west to east. These showers are generally producing light rainfall amounts of a few hundredths of an inch, but some higher bullseyes of up to 0.25" we also be possible. This activity is in association with a shortwave and cold front approaching the area from the west and northwest. Some decrease in coverage should occur through the morning, then additional activity may occur this afternoon as another shortwave and front move into the area. HREF members are only depicting some isolated activity moving south from the SC/NC border late this afternoon, and in particular with focus on the eastern Midlands. Unfortunately significant rainfall amounts are not expected, particularly given falling PW values as the wedge front move in from the northeast. The overall severe threat will remain low again given a lack of organizing ingredients such as wind shear and the potential for storm entrainment of dry air aloft.

Rainfall chances remain in the forecast on and off over the next next week as ridging breaks down some and allows a series of shortwave troughs to move across the Southern Tier. That said there remains a great deal of uncertainty around rainfall amounts, especially given the potential for thunderstorms which inherently bring better chances for higher rainfall amounts. Thunderstorm organization and the potential for severe weather will also need to be monitored. Both the GEFS and ECENS mean show 400-600 j/kg MUCAPE by the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. This is when the stronger of the shortwaves is progged to move through the region along with a potential surface front. Additionally, moderate wind shear may help some low end storm organization, and these trends are being monitored in the various model guidance. As always, the forecast will be further refined in the coming days.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions continue, but MVFR to IFR ceilings will be possible into the morning hours today.

Showers have mainly cleared the TAF sites outside of some near the Columbia area still. While a couple more showers moving through the area tonight is possible, coverage should be limited. The front is currently working into the northern part of the FA and winds are gradually shifting out of the northeast, around 5 kts. Winds should then become fairly light and variable over the coming hours. BKN to OVC mid level clouds are seen across the area and patchy stratus is noted behind the front toward the Upstate. LAMP and NBM guidance is the most aggressive with IFR ceilings developing by 08-10z across the TAF sites, but with how patchy stratus in the Upstate is at the moment, think this guidance may be a bit aggressive in terms of coverage. The 00z HREF and latest HRRR runs seem a bit more realistic (considering current Obs) with patchy MVFR to IFR ceilings after 08-10z, continuing through the morning until around 15-17z. This stratus then mixes out and gives way to VFR cumulus much of the day and toward the end of the TAF period. Winds pick back up out of the northeast after 14-16z around 5-10 kts and continue through the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Periodic restrictions will be possible over the next week with a more unsettled pattern and chances for rain continue, mainly Tuesday and into the mid week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.