textproduct: Columbia
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Added key message for showers expected later this week.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) Lows tonight in the low to mid 20s.
- 2) Rain chances return mid to late this week.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE #1: Lows tonight in the low to mid 20s.
Surface high pressure will move into the Deep South today and tonight with cold, dry air settling into the forecast area. Although winds will not quite be calm tonight, radiational cooling will allow for temperatures to drop into the mid 20s for most areas and lower 20s in some of the typically cooler locations. Any cold-sensitive vegetation could be damaged after last week's warm up.
KEY MESSAGE #2: Rain chances return mid to late this week.
Global ensembles favor broad upper troughing developing over the eastern US through the week. As moisture returns to the Southeast we will see PWAT values ramp up to near normal by Wednesday with mean PWAT values from the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles nearing 200 percent of normal by late week. A cold front is expected to sag into the Mid-Atlantic Thursday. Convergence ahead of the front and above normal moisture will support widespread showers. Although rainfall is likely late week, timing inconsistencies between ensemble members make it difficult to pin down exact timing. Most guidance shows little to no instability ahead of the front so the threat of severe weather is low.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions continue with gusty winds through the end of the TAF period.
Post-frontal gusty winds will continue overnight and throughout Monday with generally clear skies expected. Northwest winds, sustained 10-12 knots with 16-20 knots, will continue overnight and then steadily strengthen as we heat and mix out Monday morning. Gusts Monday afternoon expected around 25-30 knots, turning slightly more north-northwesterly.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Winds should subside into Tuesday but VFR conditions likely continue. VFR conditions likely continue through at least the mid week with drier air remaining in place.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...None. GA...None.
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