textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 00z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. High confidence in above normal temperatures as we get into next week. Rain chances arrive by the middle to end of next week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: High confidence in above normal temperatures as we get into next week. Rain chances arrive by the middle to end of next week.

Confidence remains high in the forecast over the next 7 days, with limited weather impacts expected until Thursday or Friday of next week. A deep trough is forecast to dig into the central Rockies over the next 24 hours, which will only help to amplify the mid and upper level heights across the eastern CONUS through early next week. Sensible weather will be driven by the combination of the ridging & the surface high being to our east. Moisture is expected to be higher than it has been as persistent onshore flow allows for dewpoints to bump up into the low and mid 60s for much of the next 7 days. One interesting nugget within this forecast is the chance for showers/storms Sunday afternoon or evening. Guidance shows an inverted surface trough coinciding with a weakness in the 500 hPa heights Sunday afternoon, in addition to fairly robust CAPE (HREF mean suggests 1500-2000 j/kg). The greatest concentration of convection looks to be across central GA closer to the weakness in the heights. However, guidance continues to show convection reaching into the CSRA, so maintained a Slight Chance of thunder, mainly for our Georgia counties. Beyond that, the anomalously warm temps are the most impactful weather feature. Temps in the low to mid 90s are expected Sunday through Wednesday before a slow moving front arrives Thursday/Friday and brings an increase in rain chances.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions for much of the TAF period with low stratus possible around daybreak.

VFR conditions continue this evening as some high clouds are starting to stream over the area as can be seen on satellite. Expect these high clouds to continue through much of the period. Guidance continues to indicate the potential for stratus developing over the area, with highest confidence for MVFR/IFR ceilings at CAE/CUB/OGB. Confidence is lower at AGS/DNL/AIK for these low ceilings. However, some fog is possible at AGS near daybreak. Winds are expected to be light and variable overnight, becoming southerly after about 13z, increasing to 5-8 kts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Low risk of a shower or thunderstorm near AGS/DNL late Sunday. Otherwise, increased moisture may result in brief restrictions at the terminals due to low clouds and/or fog each day this week. Rain chances increase towards the end of next week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.