textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Cool, dry air will filter in behind the front tonight. Aviation discussion updated for the 00z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. No widespread hazardous weather expected.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: No widespread hazardous weather expected.

Convection has exited the forecast area with drier air beginning to filter in. The front is wrapping around the southern end of the Appalachians now. We are currently seeing it push into the majority of the FA this evening. Cool, dry air will bring temperatures into the mid to low 50s tonight and 40s on Saturday night and Sunday night. Some patchy fog will be possible in sheltered locations given the lingering, low level moisture but widespread fog is unlikely.

Dry weather and seasonable temperatures will continue through at least early next week with high pressure in place. From that point, there is some divergence in guidance for the remainder of the week but mean PWAT values of less than 0.75 inches from the GEFS and Euro Ens generally favors dry weather.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR is expected through the period.

Front is not moving off the coast

The initial front that brought the rain earlier has pushed off the coast this evening. A second front moving out of the Appalachians this evening will pass through the forecast area overnight, and this will bring drier air back to the region. Winds overnight will generally be light and variable for much of the night, then turn northwesterly to northerly towards morning as the front moves through. Winds will still remain generally around 5 knots through the day Saturday. Bigger issue overnight could be the development of llws as the front moves through, especially if surface winds remain light overnight but winds above the inversion may pick up out of the northwest with the secondary front. Model soundings still showing borderline criteria, with winds around 25-30 kts, but at this time have left mention out of the TAF. This is mainly due to the potential for surface winds to pick up slightly behind the front. Will continue to monitor as the front nears. With drying behind the front, widespread fog is not expected, but a few patchy spots cannot be ruled out near daybreak

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Dry air will likely prevent widespread restrictions through the extended.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.