textproduct: Columbia

SYNOPSIS

A cold front moving into the Southeast tonight and Sunday ushers in an arctic air mass for Sunday night into early next week. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the whole area as a result. Weak ridging should then allow for air mass recovery by the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/

Key message(s):

- Mild tonight with a few light showers possible late

The well-advertised cold front is currently working its way into the Tennessee Valley. Expect this front to continue marching into the Southeast overnight, passing through the forecast area late tonight to near daybreak. Ahead of the front, mild temps (relatively speaking) can be expected tonight. As this front moves through a few showers are possible, but any rain is expected to be light.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Arctic cold front brings gusty winds and a bitter cold air mass to the area.

- Gusty winds of 30-35 mph are expected on Sunday evening, prompting a Lake Wind Advisory.

- The Extreme Cold Watch has been upgraded to a Cold Weather Advisory for all counties in the area. Dangerous wind chills of 7F-15F are forecast across the area on Sunday night and Monday.

The key messages in this time period remain unchanged as confidence is high in an impactful shot of arctic air arriving on Sunday evening and hanging around the area through Tuesday. The isolated to scattered showers from Saturday night are likely to still hang around on Sunday morning as the front continues to slowly shift south and eastward. Behind this initial front, winds are forecast to shift out of the northwest, with gusts of 20-25 mph common through the afternoon as cold air begins filtering into the area. By the evening hours, a secondary front pushes through from the north, with even strong cold advection expected during this period. 30-35 mph wind gusts are expected as a result, with a Lake Wind Advisory issued as a result of this.

The winds are forecast to remain elevated overnight and into Monday morning as bitterly cold air filters into the region. Air temperatures are forecast to be in the 15F-20F range and winds 5-10 mph, resulting in wind chills as cold as 8F-15F across the area. These dangerously cold wind chills are forecast to continue through the early morning commute, impacting those at bus stops or outdoor workers. As a result, will be hoisting a Cold Weather Advisory with this forecast package to continue hammering home the message of bitterly cold air temperatures and wind chills. Please remember the four P's: people, pets, pipes, and plants! Get the word out to those who are vulnerable to the cold, and ensure that your home is protected by dripping your pipes and covering outdoor faucets. It would be best to practice this on Sunday night, Monday, and Monday night as temperatures in the low 20s are likely to return again by Mon Night/Tues Morning. Temps should be back in the 50s on Tuesday afternoon, with lows Tuesday night a bit warmer in the low 30s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Key message(s):

- Temperatures moderate to above average by the end of the week. Rain chances possible on Thursday.

A general pattern of warming is expected through the end of the week. The trough and surface high pressure driving the cold are forecast to shift to the east on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Westerly and southwesterly flow will increase across the area both Wednesday and Thursday ahead of an approaching trough and cold front. There are differences amongst the guidance as to how sharp this trough and surface cold front will be, resulting in some spread about overall precipitation chances on Thursday night and Friday. However, guidance does indicate the pattern remaining fairly progressive and transient, meaning that our highs and lows will likely remain right around normal as we get into the end of this week and into next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Possible brief MVFR/IFR cigs as a cold front moves through the region around 12Z Sunday bringing gusty, NW winds and a few showers.

Southwesterly winds expected overnight ahead of an approaching cold front gradually increasing to around 10 knots just ahead of the front by 12z. As a broken line of showers move through the region along the front, expect some potential restrictions in cigs to MVFR all terminals and possible IFR at AGS/DNL. Confidence is higher at AGS/DNL so went prevailing MVFR cigs with a tempo group for IFR cigs and MVFR vsbys, elsewhere restrictions are in a tempo group generally from 11z-15z time frame. Winds expected to sharply shift to the northwest with the frontal passage and become strong and gusty through the afternoon with gusts 20-25 knots expected.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Widespread restrictions unlikely after Sunday as a cold, dry air mass settles into the region.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116- 135>137. Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116- 135>137. GA...Lake Wind Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for GAZ040-063>065-077. Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ040-063>065-077.