textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. After a dry Monday, unsettled weather returns for the rest of the work week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: After a dry Monday, unsettled weather returns for the rest of the work week. A cold front continues to move through the Southeast early this morning. Latest guidance is in good agreement that this front pushes far enough south of the area today to keep us dry. With the front pushing further south than previous forecasts, a drier airmass is also expected to move into the forecast area, with dew points dropping to the lower 60s or possible upper 50s for most locations. After today, unsettled weather returns for the rest of the week as the frontal boundary lingers near the area and multiple shortwave pulses move through the region this week. The latest guidance trends keep the highest IVT transfer and PWATs generally remain south of the area for much of the week, keeping the highest PoPs in the southern portions of the forecast area and locations south. A low is forecast to develop in the western Gulf region later this week and eject northeast along the boundary, bringing increased moisture with it. Guidance suggests that precip chances increase at the end of the week due to this feature as it passes around the area. However, ensemble suites are showing a large spread in the trajectory of this feature, indicating that the uncertainty is high at this time.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions generally expected outside of lingering morning stratus.

Guidance was poor forecasting any stratus at any terminals overnight but stratus developed in the clearing after convection ended and is diminishing now but some lingering at AIK. Otherwise, westerly winds around 5 knots expected through 14z before winds pick up to around 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots through the afternoon. Drier air moves in so do not expect any convection to impact terminals today. Winds should subside with sunset around 00z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnally favored convection possible each afternoon mid week with possible morning fog/stratus bringing restrictions. Breezy conditions expected Thu/Fri.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.