textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) A few spots of black ice tonight in poorly drained areas.

- 2) Arctic air mass moves in early this week where multiple days with chilly overnight lows are expected. Tuesday night has been trending the coldest.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: A few spots of black ice tonight in poorly drained areas.

With clouds departing, much of the rainfall over the area will evaporate. Winds will stay up through the night also helping to dry out roadways. That said, temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 20s tonight and any standing water will be at risk for refreezing and creating black ice conditions. It is unlikely that there will be widespread black ice issues. The only concern will be spots that do not drain well and that typically hold water for some time after rain events. Significant impacts to travel are not expected.

Key Message 2: Arctic air mass moves in early this week where multiple days with chilly overnight lows are expected. Tuesday night has been trending the coldest.

Arctic high pressure begins to build down into the region early this week, bringing well below normal temperatures, especially Tuesday. Monday should see temperatures 6-10 degrees below normal with overnight lows dipping into the low to mid 20s but the center of the high nears on Tuesday, keeping afternoon highs in the mid to upper 40s. Ideal radiational cooling conditions Tuesday night into Wednesday morning should drop lows into the upper teens to lower 20s, possibly slightly lower. Blended guidance probabilities for temperatures less than 20F early Wednesday morning approach 30-40%, highest toward the Pee Dee and thus while the current outlook keeps values above Cold Weather Advisory criteria, this will need to be monitored over the coming days.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR Conditions Likely through the TAF Period....

Evening satellite imagery shows clear skies over the terminals as today's storm continues to move away from the region. Mainly clear skies are expected during the TAF period with no significant restrictions expected. Winds should be westerly tonight at or under 5 knots. The winds increase to 10-15 knots on Monday, with higher gusts in the afternoon, before decreasing once again near the end of the TAF period as high pressure builds in from the west.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions are expected to last through at least mid-week as cold, dry high pressure moves into the region.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.