textproduct: Columbia

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Another dry day is expected on Wednesday with rain chances increasing and peaking this weekend. Aviation discussion updated for 06z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Gradually warming temperatures through Friday. Rain chances increase Thursday and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Gradually warming temperatures through Friday. Rain chances increase Thursday and into the weekend.

Surface high pressure continues moving offshore today, which will combine with strengthening upper ridging to produce gradually warming temperatures through Friday. Fortunately it looks like most, if not all, of our CWA should see another dry day with forecast highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Temperatures Thursday and Friday should warm into the lower to mid 90s. Increasing heat and humidity will likely push heat index values above 100 degrees during peak heating but still below Heat Advisory criteria. Moisture will slowly return to the region, increasing rain chances during the late week period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday, although forecast soundings indicate continued capping aloft which may restrict convection to the Coastal Plain, sparing much of our FA. This changes Friday and into the weekend when a weakness in the ridge and higher PWATs favor more widespread convection, though the severe threat appears low at this time.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

High confidence in VFR conditions through the 24hr forecast period.

Upper ridge continues to expand east into the southeastern states with a drier air mass in place. Outside of some passing higher clouds tonight, little aviation concerns as fog/stratus is not expected. The surface ridge axis will shift more offshore today allowing for easterly flow off the Atlantic which may support SCT-BKN stratocumulus favoring OGB/AGS/DNL, although cigs expected to remain VFR. Cannot rule out an isolated shower late afternoon but confidence is low at this time so will not include in this forecast. Light and variable winds should pick up from the east around 7 to 10 knots by 15z then diminish again around sunset.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Dry through mid-week before diurnal storm chances return in the later part of the week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.

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