textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued from early Saturday morning through Sunday evening. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. A strong cold front is forecast to push through the region tonight, ushering in cooler weather this weekend. Breezy to gusty winds are expected Saturday and Sunday with a Lake Wind Advisory being hoisted.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: A strong cold front is forecast to push through the region tonight, ushering in cooler weather this weekend. Breezy to gusty winds are expected Saturday and Sunday with a Lake Wind Advisory being hoisted.

A strong cold front is approaching the area from the west currently. It is pushing eastward across the Appalachians currently, with strong, southwesterly winds present ahead of it. Temps are (again) in the upper 80s this afternoon, poised to make another run at 90F this afternoon given the strong warm advection and compressional heating ahead of the front.

As we get into the forecast period tonight, the front is forecast to race across the area between 10p and 3a. A strong, robust wind shift is expected to accompany this with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph expected. Additionally, the front is taking on a bit of an anafront structure by this point as strong synoptic forcing overspreads the area behind the front. As such, precipitation is forecast to develop relatively quickly across the area. A quick burst of rain is expected between 06z and 15z across the area, with this moving eastward as synoptic forcing shifts eastward. A strong pressure gradient will setup across the area thereafter, yielding strong northeasterly winds for most of Saturday and Sunday. Strong cold advection will result in temperatures in the mid to upper 60s Saturday (at best) and only the low 60s on Sunday. Both EFI for temps has trended towards a cool signal this weekend and early next week, adding confidence to well below normal highs and lows settling over the area. Also, because of the frequent wind gusts of 25-35 mph expected both days, a longer duration Lake Wind Advisory has been issued through Sunday evening. Boaters on area lakes should be cautious, especially in the evening and overnight as warm lake waters will allow stronger wind gusts to persist over the lakes at night. Next week looks beautiful with large daily diurnal spreads owing to a very dry airmass in place. Highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the 40s are likely throughout much of the week.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Generally VFR conditions expected through 06z then some cold advection stratus expected Saturday morning.

Satellite imagery showing some cumulus development across the region and deep mixing has resulted in gusty southwesterly winds ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds should diminish a bit and lose the gusts with sunset through the evening hours until a strong cold front moves through the region later tonight. Winds will pick up and become gusty from the northwest behind the front during the 07-10z time frame with gusts pushing above 20 knots. Some light rain is possible with the frontal passage but not confident in vsby restrictions. Guidance is trending to a period of MVFR cigs behind the front with strong cold advection. MVFR cigs may linger through late morning hours but should improve back to VFR near the end of the forecast period for all terminals except maybe OGB.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Gusty winds expected to continue through the weekend due to an increased pressure gradient with a developing coastal low.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116- 135>137. GA...Lake Wind Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ040-063>065-077.