textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation updated for 12z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Drier and slightly cooler air continues into late in week.

- 2. Increasing moisture and rain chances return for the end of the week through the weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Drier and slightly cooler air continues into late in week.

An upper ridge over the Southeast is forecast to remain over the area through midweek before an upper low/inverted trough develops off the coast. Meanwhile, at the surface a frontal boundary continues to march toward the Gulf coast states, ushering in a surface high pressure along with cooler temperatures and drier air. The 850 mb temps are forecast to be around 15C or so, which translates to surface temps in the upper 80s. Dew points are expected to be around 60F, with some spots dropping into the upper 50s this afternoon. Similar conditions are expected for tomorrow, albeit slightly warmer as the 850 mb temps inch upward. All in all, seasonable temps can be expected tomorrow once again while relatively dry air remains in place.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Increasing moisture and rain chances return for the end of the week through the weekend and into next week.

The aforementioned upper low/inverted trough is forecast to move westward for the end of the week into the week. As it does, moisture and rain chances begin to increase for the end of the week into the weekend into next week. The main change from previous forecasts is that guidance has trended toward a sooner arrival of rain chances to the area. Scattered showers and storms are anticipated to arrive at the end of the work week rather than the weekend. Rain chances generally continue into next week as increased moisture lingers in the area. A relative lull in coverage is possible Sunday. After a fairly warm Friday, temps drop back to near normal for the remainder of the forecast period.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the 24hr forecast period.

VFR clouds around 5kft continue over the terminals this morning. This has prevented significant cooling early this morning which is preventing any fog from developing. Drier air will continue to move into the area today with upper ridging centered to the west of the area and deep layer northerly flow leading to dropping PWATs. As a result, clouds will decrease in coverage through the day. Winds are light and variable and are expected to shift easterly and increase to 5 to 10 knots today. With the drier air mass in place tonight, restrictions are unlikely.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Rain and restrictions unlikely for much of the week with increasing chances for showers and storms this weekend.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.