textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast remains on track with showers and thunderstorms expected each day through the weekend. Ridging develops for next week leading to lower convective coverage and favoring warmer than normal temperatures.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Thunderstorms expected each day through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Thunderstorms expected each day through the weekend.

Upper level troughing and a surge of moisture into the forecast area will support scattered to numerous thunderstorms for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Satellite derived PWAT values show values exceeding 2 inches pushing from the Lowcountry up into central SC with a tongue of higher dewpoints stretching to Newberry and Saluda Counties. This area has been the focus for convective development today. With DCAPE values generally below 700 J/kg, precip loading would have to be the main driver of any severe weather. It is possible a few storms could become severe but heavy rain will be the main threat due to slow storm movement.

The overall pattern remains consistent over the next few days with shortwaves rounding the base of the trough helping to promote thunderstorm activity. Deep SW flow will keep atmospheric moisture elevated above normal. Given the high moisture content and potential for slow-moving or training convection, localized flash flooding will be possible. The overall severe threat should remain limited, although a few isolated severe storms producing damaging wind gusts will be possible. Thunderstorms will likely continue into the evening and possibly overnight as shortwave energy promotes continued convection.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Brief Restrictions Possible this Afternoon and Evening due to Showers and Thunderstorms....

Midday satellite imagery shows robust convective development across the I-26 corridor. Brief restrictions are possible during the next few hours as showers and thunderstorms continue to pass near/over the TAF sites. While it is quiet at the moment in the Augusta area, a PROB30 remains in place there are well with satellite imagery showing developing cumulus clouds there as well. Activity should wane shortly after sunset with quiet weather expected, though guidance is suggesting the development of low clouds and/or fog again towards daybreak Thursday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Restrictions possible from showers and thunderstorms each afternoon through this weekend.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.