textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minimal change to Key Messages. Aviation discussion updated for 06z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Hot conditions continue across the area, with chances for thunderstorms the next couple of days.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Hot conditions continue across the area, with chances for thunderstorms the next couple of days.

The forecast is pretty much a rinse and repeat of what it has been over the last several days. General troughing is forecast to develop across the Mid MS valley. Weak shortwaves are forecast to push eastward out of this atop a fairly moisture rich and unstable atmosphere today and again on Tuesday. The result is likely to be scattered to numerous showers and storms developing again across the area. HREF Mean soundings are pretty similar to what they were on Sunday, with a classic look for strong to marginally severe pulse convection both days. Neither day will be a wash out but the storms are expected to be efficient rain producers. By mid to late week, PWs look to fall back nearer to normal, which is still pretty high (1.5"-1.7"). Heights are forecast to rise again and this is expected to help suppress more widespread convection. Still, expecting isolated showers and storms to continue each day.

All of the afternoon storms are up against the backdrop of this prolonged heat episode. While the troughing to our west will result in a breakdown of the ridge over the next couple of days, the low level air remains quite warm and above normal. GEFS, ECE, and NAEFS guidance are all suggesting above normal 850 hPa temps throughout the week, likely resulting in highs continuing to be in the mid to upper 90s each day. Dewpoints will be higher this week, but we're also looking at a bit more convection than last week (especially today and Tuesday). Its not expected that heat index values will be near Heat Advisory criteria today or Tuesday, primarily because convection is expected to get going pretty early in the day. However, we'll need to keep a close eye on low-level moisture later this week when precip chances diminish. We may need some heat advisories on those days. Regardless, it must be stressed that any outdoor activities should be postponed until the evening hours. If you must be out in the heat for prolonged periods of time, ensure that you hydrate properly and take frequent breaks to avoid heat related illnesses.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the majority of the TAF period with brief restrictions possible in afternoon TSRA/SHRA.

VFR conditions continue through sunrise with light and variable winds. Some patchy fog is possible near bodies of water briefly around dawn, but any impacts should be limited. Mainly high clouds early this morning will give way to an increasing cumulus field toward midday as southwest winds increase to around 10 kts. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop again this afternoon and evening, so have continued a prob30 group for TSRA at all terminals. The stronger storms may produce wind gusts over 25 kts and brief VSBY reductions in heavy rain. TSRA/SHRA move east of the terminals this evening with clearing skies overnight as winds relax to light and variable once again.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Daily rain chances and possible restrictions continue through at least midweek.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.