textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Key messages remain largely unchanged. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Slight chance for a shower or rumble of thunder this afternoon with drier conditions moving in overnight.

- 2. A warming trend is expected Wednesday into this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Slight chance for a shower or rumble of thunder this afternoon with drier conditions moving in overnight.

A stalled front just southwest of the CSRA today is keeping PWATs between 1.0-1.25" across the region. Cold advection and cloud cover are limiting daytime heating, with highs this afternoon in the mid to upper 70s, while dewpoints are falling through the 50s as the surface airmass dries out. A notable shift to northeast winds, gusty at times, is also occurring behind the front. As such, instability will be limited this afternoon, though a few very light showers are moving through the forecast area from northwest to southeast. A stronger shower or rumble of thunder cannot be totally ruled out, but overall any precip over the next several hours will weaken and end as an upper trough swings through the region. This will usher in much drier air through the column, with PWAT's dropping to under 0.75". Clearing skies overnight with the pressure gradient weakening will lead to below normal overnight temperatures, generally falling into the low to mid 50s.

Key Message 2: A warming trend is expected Wednesday into this weekend.

The cool and dry airmass which will move in behind the front tonight into Wednesday will lead to one more day of well below temperatures. High pressure will then quickly build over the area with PW values hovering around 40-60% of normal into Saturday. Models are in good agreement, with small NBM interquartile ranges, for a gradual warming trend back to near-normal high temperatures by Friday and Saturday as dry conditions persist.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions expected for the TAF period.

Much drier air is moving into the region today, allowing for any clouds to be in the VFR category, generally in the 6k-10k feet range. A few light showers are showing up on radar at the time of this update. Sprinkles or light rain can't be ruled out at the terminals this afternoon, but they very likely won't last but a few minutes or cause any restrictions, so leaving any precip out of the TAFs. After these showers end, expect dry conditions through the rest of the TAF period with clearing skies overnight into the day tomorrow. Northeast winds gusting to the 15-20 kt range can be expected this afternoon before diminishing some after 00z. Winds increase again after about 15z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Drier air returns to the region mid to late week with mainly VFR conditions expected.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.