textproduct: Columbia

SYNOPSIS

A cold front will move into the Southeast tonight into Sunday ushering in an arctic air mass for Sunday night into early next week. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for the whole area as a result. Weak ridging should then allow for air mass recovery by the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Warmer weather today, a few light showers possible tonight

The weather is quiet this morning in advance of our major cold snap. Sunny skies are present across the entire forecast area and temperatures are slowly climbing into the 50s today, likely getting into the low 60s later this afternoon. Clouds should increase rapidly overnight tonight tonight as some low-end moisture pushes into the region from the west. Global models are pretty certain that we are going to see scattered showers tonight within this regime, with the HREF showing decent probs of >0.01" of QPF tonight. Regardless, the QPF should be light and not impactful. Lows will likely be elevated tonight given cloud cover and potential for showers across the area. Look for temps in the mid 40s across the area.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Arctic cold front brings gusty winds and a bitter cold air mass to the area.

- Gusty winds of 30-35 mph are expected on Sunday evening, prompting a Lake Wind Advisory.

- The Extreme Cold Watch has been upgraded to a Cold Weather Advisory for all counties in the area. Dangerous wind chills of 7F-15F are forecast across the area on Sunday night and Monday.

The key messages in this time period remain unchanged as confidence is high in an impactful shot of arctic air arriving on Sunday evening and hanging around the area through Tuesday. The isolated to scattered showers from Saturday night are likely to still hang around on Sunday morning as the front continues to slowly shift south and eastward. Behind this initial front, winds are forecast to shift out of the northwest, with gusts of 20-25 mph common through the afternoon as cold air begins filtering into the area. By the evening hours, a secondary front pushes through from the north, with even strong cold advection expected during this period. 30-35 mph wind gusts are expected as a result, with a Lake Wind Advisory issued as a result of this.

The winds are forecast to remain elevated overnight and into Monday morning as bitterly cold air filters into the region. Air temperatures are forecast to be in the 15F-20F range and winds 5-10 mph, resulting in wind chills as cold as 8F-15F across the area. These dangerously cold wind chills are forecast to continue through the early morning commute, impacting those at bus stops or outdoor workers. As a result, will be hoisting a Cold Weather Advisory with this forecast package to continue hammering home the message of bitterly cold air temperatures and wind chills. Please remember the four P's: people, pets, pipes, and plants! Get the word out to those who are vulnerable to the cold, and ensure that your home is protected by dripping your pipes and covering outdoor faucets. It would be best to practice this on Sunday night, Monday, and Monday night as temperatures in the low 20s are likely to return again by Mon Night/Tues Morning. Temps should be back in the 50s on Tuesday afternoon, with lows Tuesday night a bit warmer in the low 30s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Key message(s):

- Temperatures moderate to above average by the end of the week. Rain chances possible on Thursday.

A general pattern of warming is expected through the end of the week. The trough and surface high pressure driving the cold are forecast to shift to the east on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Westerly and southwesterly flow will increase across the area both Wednesday and Thursday ahead of an approaching trough and cold front. There are differences amongst the guidance as to how sharp this trough and surface cold front will be, resulting in some spread about overall precipitation chances on Thursday night and Friday. However, guidance does indicate the pattern remaining fairly progressive and transient, meaning that our highs and lows will likely remain right around normal as we get into the end of this week and into next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A cold front moves through the region around 12Z Sunday bringing gusty, NW winds and possibly a few showers. Otherwise no impacts expected.

Southwest winds gradually increase this afternoon. The approaching front is expected to bring some lower clouds, but generally VFR. A brief period of MVFR cigs are possible as the front moves through the region. There is also potential for some showers, with highest chances at the AGS, DNL, and OGB terminals from around 09z-14z, so have introduced PROB30 groups at those locations. After the frontal passage around 15z, winds become northwesterly and become breezy, gusting to 20-25 kts at times.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Widespread restrictions look unlikely after Sunday as a cold, dry air mass settles into the region.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...Lake Wind Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116- 135>137. Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116- 135>137. GA...Lake Wind Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for GAZ040-063>065-077. Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM Sunday to 10 AM EST Monday for GAZ040-063>065-077.