textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Thunderstorms continue into the overnight. Aviation discussion updated for 00Z TAF.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue into the upcoming week, with localized flash flooding possible through Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue into the upcoming week, with localized flash flooding possible through Tuesday.

Tonight: Hires models indicate shower and thunderstorm activity will increase across the western Midlands and CSRA this evening and into tonight. Main threat with this developing activity will be heavy rainfall and strong winds. This could lead to some flooding issues in areas that experience slow or training activity this evening. Isolated strong precip-loaded downdrafts could lead to a damaging wind gust or two.

Rest of the week: Southwest flow will persist at least through the first half of the week with the synoptic pattern favoring ridging offshore and an upper low over east Texas. NAEFS mean indicates PWATs remain around or above the 99th percentile through Tuesday. Heavy rain and isolated flash flooding will be possible with afternoon convection, although a strong trough strengthening in the Pacific Northwest leads to strengthening ridging over our area which would limit forcing somewhat. With moisture so high and moderate destabilization each afternoon, will likely get scattered to widespread storms developing, favoring the sea breeze and propagating inland. Storm coverage Wednesday through the end of the week may be a bit more limited as southwest flow weakens but isolated diurnal showers and storms will remain possible.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Restrictions from showers/storms possible this evening before more stratus is possible overnight into Monday morning.

Convection is currently across portions of the western Midlands and the CSRA this evening. Although VFR is mainly expected early this evening at all sites, can not rule out brief restrictions at locations impacted by a passing shower or storm through midnight. Showers may linger into the overnight before gradually diminishing into Monday morning. There is fairly good consensus another round of stratus and possibly patchy fog should develop late tonight, with MVFR to IFR ceilings expected after 05-08z, continuing into Monday morning. Conditions should improve back to VFR after 18z. Winds likely remain light and out of the southeast overnight before becoming a bit more southerly after daybreak Monday through the end of the TAF period. Another period of scattered showers and/or storms will be possible Monday afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Abundant low level moisture will bring more rounds of morning restrictions from fog and/low low clouds to start the next work week. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible each day into the middle of the week.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.