textproduct: Columbia

SYNOPSIS

Rain chances continue tonight as a cold front approaches from the west. Winds are expected to increase late tonight and into early Friday, along and following the passage of the boundary. Dry weather and a steady warming pattern is then expected through the weekend and into the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Rain is moving out of the area as a cold front approaches.

- Cold front is forecast to push across the area around dawn, with gusty winds expected.

- Clouds should quickly clear through the day as dry air filters into the region.

Heavy rainfall has been pushing through the region this evening in advance of a passing shortwave trough. This trough has generally phased with the deeper, northern stream trough axis and the lift associated with it is now lifting out. Rainfall has cleared for most of the area sans the Pee Dee region, with only light showers expected for most of the rest of the night. The synoptic scale pattern is not favorable for much more in the way of rain. The best forcing will lift to our northeast along with PWs falling back to near about 1" as the surface cold front approaches from the west over the next few hours. There is still a line of showers along the cold front in northern Georgia but hi-res guidance suggests that this should weaken over the next several hours. As the front approaches, surface winds are forecast to increase in strength out of the southwest. The gusts should increase in the immediate vicinity of the front, with winds beginning to gist in excess of 30 mph as the front passes between 4a and 8a across the area. Have maintained the Lake Wind Advisory as a result.

As we get into the day today, the cold front will begin to shift off to our east with continued gusty winds continuing through the afternoon hours. 25-30 mph wind gusts are likely through at least early afternoon, with winds slowly declining through the evening hours. Clouds are forecast to quickly clear this morning as very dry air overspreads the area. Cold air advection will be common today, though not as robust as we saw last week. Expecting that temps will still pop up into the upper 50s or low 60s this afternoon especially since we will have a downslope component to the winds. Tonight, temps should be cool as the surface high approaches and overspreads the area, with lows in the low 30s likely.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Dry with near normal temps Saturday and slightly warmer Sunday.

Surface high pressure underneath zonal flow aloft to start the short term period. The high pressure is forecast to shift eastward and offshore through the period as an upper trough and associated cold front move toward and through the region. However, the atmosphere is expected to remain dry while the better lift with this system stays to our north. As a result, dry conditions are expected through the weekend. After a chilly start to Saturday, highs are forecast to be near normal, with Sunday being slightly warmer ahead of the frontal passage.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Key message(s):

- Dry and cooler Monday followed by a warming trend.

After the weekend's frontal passage, Monday is looking cooler than average. Then, a warming trend is expected across the forecast area as upper ridging builds over the region through midweek, potentially being several degrees above average by Christmas. In addition, surface high pressure is also forecast to settle over the region, likely keeping the area dry through the long term.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

IFR and MVFR conditions are common across the area right now, with VFR forecast to return by 15z at the latest as a cold front clears out the clouds.

The heavy rain has moved to the northeast of the TAF sites, with dry conditions (and maybe some light drizzle) common now. Low clouds are in place as strong warm advection & increasing subsidence aloft favors the maintenance of thick stratus across the area. Ceilings generally range from 800 to 1500 feet at area sites & obs, with this continuing to the west. Low level winds are forecast to begin increasing over the next few hours or so as the front & low-level jet approach. The winds are initially expected to remain light at the surface which should promote strong low-level wind shear between 08z and 12z. However, this will quickly become borderline as the surface front approaches and winds begin gusting in the 20-30 knot range. MVFR or IFR ceilings are likely to continue in this period; however, upstream obs indicate that cigs clear pretty much immediately behind the front. With the front passing between 10z and 14z at the TAF sites, VFR conditions are likely to follow quickly behind the front. WInds are forecast to continue gusting up to 30 knots through the day, relaxing by this evening and overnight. By the end of the period, light winds and clear skies are expected with VFR conditions reigning supreme. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Drier air should remain in place for the weekend with low chances for restrictions.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for SCZ016- 018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137. GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for GAZ040- 063>065-077.