textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 00z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. A front will bring breezy winds and frost/freeze potential late week into this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: A front will bring breezy winds and frost/freeze potential late week into this weekend.

Dry conditions persist tonight, with lows likely falling into the mid 40s. A few sheltered spots could fall into the low 40s, but scattered high clouds may limit radiational cooling a bit. Expect moderating low temperatures over the next couple days as clouds gradually increase ahead of a front approaching the area Thursday. The overall trend with this system has been a northern stream and southern stream shortwave that remain out of phase, limiting the forcing that will coincide with marginal moisture increase with blended guidance PWATs rising to near an inch. While a not insignificant amount of ensemble members indicate measurable rain will be possible late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, the 90th percentile amounts remain below a tenth of an inch. Drier air will funnel in behind the front Thursday with a reinforcing front Thursday night ushering a much colder air mass for Friday and into the weekend. This will also lead to breezy conditions Thursday with gusts up to 30 mph possible at times. As a result, a Lake Wind Advisory may be needed Thursday.

Little change in thinking with the cold air mass that arrives this weekend with blended guidance favoring frost potential Saturday and Monday mornings and the highest potential for a freeze Sunday morning. Spread of blended members has continued to shrink leading to increasing confidence in temperatures this weekend. With the cold driven mostly by cold advection as opposed to overnight radiative processes with the surface high expected to remain centered to the north of the area, relatively high confidence in the temperature forecast this weekend.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Generally VFR conditions expected through the period.

Mostly clear this evening with some passing high clouds. This can generally be expected through the period. Much like the past few mornings, some fog near rivers is possible again around daybreak Wednesday morning. AGS is most likely to be affected once again, so have maintained the TEMPO for brief VSBY restrictions. Otherwise, light and variable to calm winds overnight become WLY/SWLY late Wednesday morning around 5-10 kts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Dry air will likely prevent widespread restrictions through the extended with moisture increasing ahead of an approaching frontal boundary on Thursday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.