textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Chances for rain for late week decreasing somewhat. Aviation updated for 06z issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Dry conditions to start the week with rain chances returning for mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Dry conditions to start the week with rain chances returning for mid to late week.

The last signs of light rain showers are moving out of the area as an upper shortwave continues to lift northward early this morning. Once these move out of the area, dry, but mostly cloudy conditions are expected to persist through the day.

A deep trough over the Four Corners region this morning is expected to translate eastward to the central CONUS for the first part of the week, causing an upper ridge to build over our area. At the surface, high pressure slowly shifts northward, causing surface winds to shift more easterly. As a result, warmer than normal temps and increasing moisture can be expected through midweek. As the upper trough moves into the central CONUS, a surface low and associated front are expected to accompany it. The trough and surface front are then forecast to move east, then shift northeastward as they approach the forecast area. Latest guidance continues to indicate a dragging surface front should move toward and through the forecast area mid to late week, bringing increased rain chances. However, confidence continues to increase that the better forcing mechanisms stay to our north as the system moves through. Therefore, the chances for any rain or thunderstorms have decreased overall from the previous model runs. That said, there remains chances for scattered activity. The severe threat also remains low with this system. The area is anticipated to dry back out as high pressure is forecast to move back into the area.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions are generally expected through the TAF forecast period.

High pressure continues to ridge into the region through the period, but some weak warm advection will support mid and high level clouds this morning through around midday. However, it should be noted that clearing west of AGS/DNL is resulting in some patchy MVFR CIGS, and it is possible for some brief restrictions to make it to these terminals this morning. Confidence is not high enough for inclusion in the TAFs at this time, but will continue to monitor trends. Otherwise, northeast winds continue today around 5 to 7 kts, increasing a bit this afternoon to around 10-12 kts with some higher gusts from a more easterly direction. Skies clear a bit this afternoon, but another round of SCT-BKN stratus is expected to return tonight as winds relax a bit and speeds decrease to less than 6 kts.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Increasing chances for rain mid-week may lead to some lower CIGS or VSBY restrictions, but current confidence is low.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.