textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Little chance in the overall forecast thinking. Aviation discussion updated for the 06z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. Elevated fire weather concerns and periodic smoke impacts will persist through today.

- 2. Rain chances increase this weekend into early next week, but meaningful drought relief remains unlikely.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1: Elevated fire weather concerns and periodic smoke impacts will persist through today.

A dry air mass persists over the region with satellite PW estimates around 0.7" and surface dewpoints in the 50s. With peak heating today, RH values are likely to drop to between 20 and 30 percent for many locations. While windspeeds should not be near critical values for an extended time today today, peak heating may lead to some stronger gusts between 15 and 20 mph. This occurring in the presence of those low RH values and fuels that continue to dry out as each rain-free day passes, is likely going to create an elevated fire danger environment. We also may continue to see smoke impacts from fires to the south as winds remain out of the south to southwest, and HRRR smoke guidance indicates that smoke could settle back into the region this morning. The South Carolina Department of Environmental Services Air Quality Alert expired earlier this evening, but the SC Forestry Commission continues a Burn Ban until further notice.

Key Message 2: Rain chances increase this weekend into early next week, but meaningful drought relief remains uncertain.

A more unsettled pattern is expected to develop over the next 2-5 days with several chances for rain in the forecast. While HREF members do show some shower development over the area today, it is likely too dry for much if any precip to make it to the ground. Chances will be better closer to the coast where PW values will increase closer to 1" by this afternoon. Then, over the weekend, the upper ridge is progged to break down and higher chances for showers and potential thunderstorms arrive along with a cold front. There will be some upper support as a shortwave moves overhead, but storm organization should be kept to a minimum. Isolated chances for additional showers continue Sunday and Monday mainly for the eastern portion of the forecast area as high pressure shifts over the eastern seaboard. Another front likely approaches Tuesday with some severe potential as instability increases, and a more robust shortwave moves over the area on Wednesday. This may lead to some slightly higher rainfall amounts, but particularly for next week it is too soon to start talking about specific accumulations. Even if we receive some rain and brief relief with all of these systems, the drought is unlikely to be significantly reduced anytime soon. The latest runs of the GEFS and ECENS continue to show very low chances, less than 20%, for 7-day rainfall totals over 1". So, expecting the severe to extreme drought to persist for the foreseeable future.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

Clear skies in place at the terminals with light SSW winds which will likely continue through the early morning. Winds shift a bit more WSW between 5 to 10 knots late this morning into the afternoon. While there will be marginally higher moisture today with scattered cumulus around 8kft, restrictions remain unlikely. The exception could be a brief MVFR visibility restriction due to smoke from wildfires in Georgia but confidence is low. Winds become light and variable tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Rain chances increase Saturday afternoon and evening, which may introduce periods of restrictions, but confidence in coverage remains low. More unsettled pattern with additional chances for rain Sunday and Tuesday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.