textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAF. Key messages updated and reorganized.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Rain will move into the area Friday through the weekend

- 2) Well above normal temperatures expected later this week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE #1: Rain will move into the area Friday through the weekend

A front will sag into the Mid-Atlantic mid-week as moisture increases over the Southeast. With primarily zonal flow aloft the front won't move much through the week as it gradually lifts north as a warm front. By Wednesday night, PWAT values from the NAEFS rise to the 90th percentile of climatology and remain near or slightly above normal through Sunday. This supports showers over the region for late week through much of the weekend. The most substantial rainfall is expected Saturday as a cold front pushes into the Southeast. A few thunderstorms are possible Saturday, but the limited amount of surface based instability keeps the outlook for severe weather low at this time.

KEY MESSAGE #2: Well above normal temperatures expected later this week

Without belaboring the point, temperatures will be well above normal from Wednesday through Saturday but will not be impactful. Thursday and Friday are likely to be the warmest days with highs in the mid to upper 70s and possibly breaking into the 80s.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR expected through the period.

Any residual morning fog has burned off as of 16z, with mostly clear skies expected the rest of the day. Winds will steadily increase out of the southwest this afternoon, sustained 5-7 with some gusts over 10 knots. Winds will fall off overnight as a modest inversion sets up, but winds around 2k feet will still remain around 25-30 knots; not quite LLWS criteria, but not far off. Some patchy fog, especially at AGS, is possible tonight but not as widespread as Tuesday morning. Winds will strengthen notably by late Wednesday morning, with some gusts over 25 knots likely in the afternoon.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture increases through the week leading to increasing chances of morning fog/stratus. The next chance of rain is trending toward the late week and this weekend.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.