textproduct: Columbia

SYNOPSIS

Patchy fog is possible early this morning with rain moving into the region near daybreak. Scattered showers move through the region into early afternoon before a cold front crosses the region. Dry conditions are then anticipated for the mid to late week period with near to slightly below normal temperatures. A colder air mass may move in for the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Scattered showers cross the area this morning - Strong cold advection tonight with lows in the 20s.

An upper trough currently moving through the MS Valley will continue eastward crossing the forecast area this afternoon and driving a cold front through the region. Southwesterly mid level flow ahead of the upper trough is yielding moisture advection into the region and PWATs are expected to rise to just under 1 inch by 12z. Regional radar shows an area of showers moving across MS/AL which should arrive to the forecast area around 12z and move through during the 12z-18z time frame. Overall rainfall amounts are not expected to be high (generally a tenth of an inch or less). A cold rain is likely with temperatures in the 30s to lower 40s but forecast soundings indicate boundary layer temps may be close enough to support a few flurries mixing in across the northern Midlands and Pee Dee region near the tail end of the rain as it is moving out early afternoon but no impacts would be expected.

Drier air will begin working into the region this afternoon in the wake of the departing upper trough but widespread clouds and cold advection behind the passing front likely to keep high temperatures well below normal and struggling through the 40s. Skies will be slow to clear out this evening but should eventually clear from the north and this combined with strong cold advection will support lows temperatures in the 20s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Drier and continued cool on Tuesday.

- Warmer but also breezy at times on Wednesday.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night: The day begins with lingering low clouds and perhaps some patchy fog along with widespread subfreezing temperatures. High pressure will pass overhead on Tuesday providing plenty of sunshine but with strong cold air advection in place, temperatures will struggle to warm with forecast highs in the mid to upper 40s. Winds shift to the southwest at night as the center of high pressure drifts south towards Florida. This should offset cooling somewhat but most locations will once again be near or below the freezing mark with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s by daybreak Wednesday.

Wednesday and Wednesday Night: A potent shortwave trough will move out of the northern Great Plains, passing north of the FA at night. At the surface, a clipper system will move from the Great Lakes region into New England but the forecast in our region remains dry thanks to high pressure to the south. Southwest flow should result in a warmer day with highs in the mid to upper 50s but it will also be breezy at times, especially in the afternoon as the aforementioned trough approaches. Wind gusts could approach Lake Wind Advisory criteria for a few hours, especially across the Midlands. Winds should remain elevated at night limiting cooling somewhat with lows in the mid to upper 30s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Key message(s):

- Continued dry Thursday and Friday with near to slightly below normal daytime temperatures.

- A dry cold front ushers in another cold air mass for the weekend.

An upper trough will slowly lift during the extended keeping the storm track to the north. The latest guidance suggests that dry conditions will continue through the extended period. At the surface, southwest flow will promote near to slightly below normal daytime temperatures on Thursday and Friday. A dry cold front could cross through the region Friday night shifting winds to the northwest and ushering in a colder and drier air mass for the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Widespread stratus across the area with high confidence in IFR/MVFR restrictions through much of the forecast period.

Abundant low level moisture in place supporting IFR cigs all terminals though there is a bit of wind which is helping to keep vsbys up a bit. Scattered showers moving into the region this morning so included a tempo to lower vsbys in rain generally in the 12z-16z time frame. As the rain moves out with the passing trough, cold dry advection is expected through tonight but low clouds expected to remain in place so not expecting much improvement in cigs, staying IFR or possibly MVFR. Generally northerly to northwesterly wind through the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant aviation restrictions expected. Breezy conditions are possible on Wednesday.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...None. GA...None.