textproduct: Columbia

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Saturday as confidence continues to increase for potential critical fire weather conditions. A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect tonight into Saturday as strong winds move in behind the front. 18z Aviation update.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for critical fire conditions with extremely dry and breezy conditions expected starting Friday night through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: A Red Flag Warning is in effect for critical fire conditions with extremely dry and breezy conditions expected starting Friday night through Saturday.

A southward sinking cold front will move across the area this, with a steadily tightening pressure gradient in place ahead. Winds throughout Friday afternoon and evening will gust over 20 mph as a result, out of the west-southwest. The front moves through overnight and will quickly shift winds out of the north-northeast by Saturday morning, with stronger gusts developing within the 850mb jet behind the surface front. Gusts over 30 mph are expected starting late Friday night and throughout Saturday morning; these gusts will steadily weaken Saturday afternoon and evening. Along with the gusts, extremely dry air will funnel behind the front with dew points dipping down into the teens throughout much of Saturday. With some warming temps late morning and afternoon, this will push RH's down below 20% in most spots for several hours. While critical fire conditions are expected, the strongest gusts will likely be in the morning while the lowest RH's will be in the late afternoon. But still, a sustained period of 25+ mph winds and RH less 25% is expected starting Saturday morning and throughout the afternoon. While dew point recovery will be slow Saturday night into Sunday morning, winds turn out of the southeast by Sunday afternoon and will help tick RH's back to around 30% along with lighter winds.

In conjunction with the Red Flag Warning, SC and GA have issued burn ban notices starting this evening until further notice.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period.

A southward sinking cold front will cross the TAF sites later this evening, with winds shifting from southeasterly to northerly between 0200-0500z. A few showers are possible with the front but should remain north of CAE and CUB. Only some mid-level stratocu is expected with the front at the TAF sites. Gusts ahead of the front will still push over 20 knots with some stronger gusts closer to 30 knots out of the north as the front moves through. Consistent gusts around 25 knots are expected to last through roughly 18z Saturday before steadily weakening into the evening.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Some gusty winds will likely linger into Saturday evening but otherwise VFR conditions expected into early next week with no notable weather systems expected beyond Friday night.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...Lake Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM EDT Saturday for SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116- 135>137. Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 11 PM EDT Saturday for SCZ016- 018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137. GA...Lake Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM EDT Saturday for GAZ040-063>065-077. Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 11 PM EDT Saturday for GAZ040- 063>065-077.