textproduct: Columbia

SYNOPSIS

The opening days of 2026 will feature seasonal temperatures with sunny skies today and increasing cloudiness on Friday. Widespread rain will move into the region late Friday night and Saturday as a low pressure system works across the area. Dry weather is likely for Sunday through the extended with warming temperatures.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Lake Wind Advisory in effect until 7am this morning.

- Plenty of sunshine today with near normal temperatures.

Skies are mostly clear across the region tonight with mainly cirriform clouds passing through the FA. Winds are mainly between 5 and 10 mph currently with higher gusts being observed, especially around area lakes. The strongest wind gusts are expected during the next few hours. Temperatures are on track to fall into the lower to mid 30s by daybreak.

Quiet weather is expected for the first day of 2026 with the region under the influence of high pressure moving east through the gulf. Westerly winds shift southwest later in the day as the anticyclone approaches. Temperatures should warm to around normal values for early January with forecast highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. High clouds associated with the next storm system begin to move in tonight. It will be warmer with lows in the mid-30s to around 40 degrees.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Key message(s):

- Mostly dry Friday with slightly above average temperatures.

- Widespread light to moderate rain moves in Friday night, continuing most of Saturday.

Dry weather will persist much of Friday, but with increasing cloud cover as a series of shortwaves and developing surface low approach from the west. Persistent southwesterly flow will rise PWAT's from around 0.50" during the day to near 1" by the overnight hours and will allow high temperatures to reach the upper 50s to lower 60s despite cloud cover. By the evening hours, slight chance to chance PoP's could creep into the western FA, steadily increasing overnight and into Saturday morning with widespread rain overspreading the region. Strong 850-925mb moisture transport should drive PWAT's to near 1.25" Saturday morning as the surface low and shortwave move into the area with a weak warm front slowing lifting northward. These features and a 40-45 kt LLJ should drive periods of moderate rainfall Saturday morning and into the afternoon before becoming lighter late in the day. Coverage of rain is expected to lessen by the late afternoon and into the evening before moving out fully during the late evening hours. Overall, confidence in event totals between 0.50-1" remains fairly high as LREF/NBM probabilities for greater than 0.50" are above 60-70% for much of the area and deterministic guidance has a fairly large QPF footprint between 0.50- 1". Drier conditions then move in for the overnight hours Saturday and into Sunday morning.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Key message(s):

- Dry conditions with warming temperatures through the week.

Behind Saturday's system ensemble guidance and global models are in good agreement that weak high pressure should build into the region with drier conditions taking over. Persistent ridging to our west should slowly shift into the FA through the week, leading to a general warming trend where temperatures end the weekend and start next week near average before rising above average for the mid week.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR Conditions Continue....

Skies are mostly clear tonight with passing high clouds at CAE/CUB with westerly winds between 5 and 10 knots. Will continue to monitor for brief restrictions associated with smoke from fireworks but the winds should help to disperse it. No significant flight restrictions are expected through the TAF period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant aviation restrictions expected through Friday but restrictions possible over the weekend with a southern stream system moving through the region.

CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for SCZ016-018- 020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137. GA...Lake Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for GAZ040- 063>065-077.