textproduct: Billings

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- An unsettled weather pattern continues into next week. - First round of light precipitation continues through the afternoon for the mountains. Second round late Monday into Wednesday.

- Increasing foothill winds Monday evening and night with gusts into the 50s mph likely.

- There is a moderate to high chance the precipitation type Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning is snow across the area. This would be the first snow of the season for many lower elevation locations. Accumulations are forecast to be light.

DISCUSSION

Through Monday Night...

Rain and mountain snow showers will gradually decrease into the evening hours as troughing slowly shifts east. Additional snow accumulations through the evening over the mountains will be light, generally an inch or less for most areas. A cool night is in store with temperatures falling into the 20s across the lower elevations. Localized patchy valley fog is possible overnight.

Heading into Monday, brief shortwave ridging and downslope flow will bring temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Southwest to west winds will begin increasing along the western foothills, becoming strong Monday evening into Tuesday morning, as pressure gradients strengthen ahead of an approaching shortwave and associated cold front. Local wind guidance gives a 90% chance of 50 mph or greater wind gusts at Livingston, while Big Timber has a 60% chance. For wind gusts of 60 mph or greater, Livingston has a 60% chance, with Big Timber around 40%. Have gone ahead and issued a Wind Advisory for the Livingston and Nye areas, in effect from 3pm Monday through 9am Tuesday. Rain/snow chances (30-70%, highest over the mountains) start increasing late Monday night as the next weather system begins moving into the region. STP

Tuesday through Sunday...

Summary: A fall weather system will bring cooler temperatures, windy conditions, and the chance of precipitation back to the region Tuesday into Wednesday this week. During this time, there is a moderate to high chance that the precipitation type will be a rain/snow mix to all snow over the lower elevations. This would be the first snow for many lower elevation locations this fall. With that said, accumulations over the lower elevations are expected to be light for most. After this, warmer and drier conditions will return to end the week.

Forecast Details: Behind the Monday night cold front, there exists a brief break in the precipitation potential before additional energy drops in from the northwest Tuesday afternoon. As this energy drops through the region, the chance of precipitation increases. At this time, the best chance of precipitation exists Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning (40-80% chance, highest over the mountains). Note: winds will be out of the northwest with this system. Therefore, northwest facing slopes have the best chance of precipitation in the mountains. Drying downslope winds off the western mountains around Big Timber, MT will also limit the amount of precipitation that occurs. With that said, the chance of seeing 0.10 inches of precipitation across the lower elevations of south central and eastern Montana and northern Wyoming remain around 30-70%, highest south and east of Billings.

As mentioned early, the precipitation type is forecast to switch over to a rain/snow mix to all snow over the lower elevations Tuesday evening into Wendesday morning as snow levels are forecast to drop to around 2000 ft. With this, the probability of an inch of snow is generally under 30% for most of the populated locations in our forecast area. Over some of the higher hills south and east of Billings and over the foothills across the area, there is a 50-85% chance of an inch or more of snow. Over the mountains, there is a 50-90% chance of 6 or more inches of snow (mainly over northwest facing slopes). Probabilities drop quickly for 10 or more inches of snow.

Outside of the precipitation potential, Tuesday into Wednesday morning will be windy with gusts in the 20s and 30s (mph) common over the lower elevations. Along the western foothills, gusts into the 30s and 40s are forecast Tuesday morning and afternoon.

Drier and warmer conditions return to end the week as temperatures warm from the upper 30s and 40s Tuesday through Thursday (coldest Wednesday) to upper 40s to mid 50s by the weekend. Arends

AVIATION

Rain and mountain snow showers will gradually decrease into the evening, lingering longest over the southern mountains. MVFR conditions are possible with the shower activity along with mountain obscurations. Expect gradual clearing conditions and increasing west/southwest winds tonight, as brief ridging builds in from the west. Gusty southwest to west winds will develop over the western foothills on Monday, with wind gusts to 50 kts possible at KLVM by 0z Tuesday. STP

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS

Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 029/050 034/046 031/041 023/048 029/054 031/058 033/054 00/U 33/O 52/S 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/B LVM 023/048 028/040 022/039 016/049 024/054 027/055 027/051 11/N 67/S 71/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/B HDN 027/051 031/049 028/039 017/048 019/052 024/055 029/053 00/U 53/O 64/S 00/U 00/U 01/U 11/B MLS 026/049 030/049 029/038 020/048 022/051 026/054 029/053 00/U 32/R 44/S 00/U 00/U 01/U 00/B 4BQ 026/048 028/047 029/036 020/046 025/051 029/053 031/053 00/U 23/O 34/S 00/U 00/U 11/B 10/B BHK 022/048 024/049 025/039 019/047 022/053 026/054 027/051 00/U 22/O 43/S 00/U 00/U 11/B 10/B SHR 022/047 022/046 023/037 014/048 021/054 026/056 027/053 10/U 46/S 74/S 00/U 00/U 11/B 11/B

BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...Wind Advisory in effect from 3 PM Monday to 9 AM MST Tuesday FOR ZONES 65-66. WY...None.


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