textproduct: Billings

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry the first half of today. Elevated fire weather concerns continue. Expect some rises on streams and rivers due to mountain snowmelt.

- Impactful weather system likely late today into Friday. Impacts include strong winds, some precipitation (rain and snow), and cooler temperatures.

- The weather system could impact impact travel and recreation. Cool and wet conditions will impact young livestock.

AVIATION

High based very light shower activity continues to move out of W Wyoming north across the Beartooth/Absaroka mountains and through the western 1/3 of the forecast area. Can't rule out a lightning strike or two and maybe a brief sprinkle, but the main threat from this activity will be brief gusty winds to 35kts. This activity will diminish by 10z.

Morning surface inversion should break around 16z with southwest winds rapidly increasing to gusts to 30kts by 18z. Wind speeds will increase further through the afternoon and evening as a cold front moves in from the west. Gusts close to 50kts are possible over the western foothills, with gusts in the 30 to 45kt range widespread. Even normally sheltered areas such as KSHR will see gusty west/southwest winds today.

Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will develop along the cold front as it moves into western zones mid afternoon, with activity spreading east as the front progresses into tomorrow evening. Downslope winds will help hold flight categories to MVFR or better with this activity.

This system is very dynamic with a ton of wind associated with it. Expect significant low level wind shear and turbulence (especially near area mountains) across the area through tomorrow night. Chambers

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS

Tdy Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 078 042/053 030/046 027/047 029/045 030/054 033/062 2/W 67/W 45/J 32/J 24/J 33/W 12/W LVM 064 035/047 023/042 020/045 024/043 026/051 031/057 5/T 99/W 77/J 33/J 24/J 33/W 12/W HDN 080 040/054 029/048 026/050 028/047 028/055 030/064 2/W 68/W 45/J 32/W 24/W 33/W 12/W MLS 087 039/049 029/046 026/047 027/047 028/051 031/060 2/W 48/W 12/J 11/B 13/W 21/B 11/B 4BQ 083 040/051 031/047 026/051 029/044 027/050 030/059 1/N 26/W 22/J 21/B 35/W 32/W 11/B BHK 087 037/047 026/045 024/044 025/044 025/047 027/056 1/N 27/W 11/N 11/B 24/W 32/J 11/B SHR 076 037/051 024/044 023/048 024/042 024/049 027/058 1/N 48/W 77/J 43/W 35/W 43/W 23/W

BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...Winter Storm Warning in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM MDT Friday FOR ZONE 67. WY...None.