textproduct: Billings

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer and mostly drier weather expected to return Sunday through mid week. Expect rapid snowmelt this coming week.

- Periods of strong wind for foothills/gap locations including Livingston/Nye starting tonight and lasting through the foreseeable future. Strong winds across the entire area Wednesday.

- Chance of extreme cross winds along US-191 corridor (Big Timber to Judith Gap) Wednesday.

UPDATE

With warm advection kicking in so are the winds in the upper Yellowstone and Stillwater river valleys. Gusting 55 to 60 mph in the Livingston area over the past hour, so issued a wind advisory through 11am tomorrow morning for gusts up to 65 mph at times. Drivers should use extra caution traveling I-90 in this area as sudden strong crosswinds are likely. Rest of the forecast is in good shape. Earlier temperature drops have subsided and should see temperatures rise in most locations through tomorrow morning as warmer air displaces the shallow cold air currently in place.

Hydrology (For Rapid Snowmelt)...Much warmer temperatures are expected for Sunday-Tuesday with plenty of snow melt expected. A look at Montana Mesonet sites across the forecast area shows very few locations with frozen ground and these are confined to far northeast sections. Moisture saturation is likewise low across the area in the shallow to mid depths. So, expect snowmelt to soak into the ground for the most part over the next few days. That said those in poor drainage locations should take steps to prevent water from pooling around foundations and possibly getting into basements. Also, clear storm drains and drainage infrastructure to allow the water to flow freely. Chambers

AVIATION

00z TAF Discussion...

Shallow cold airmass sits over the area this evening. Ridging is building in from the west aloft and pressure falls are developing over the northern plains where the jet stream is located. This combination will work to pull the arctic air eastward tonight into tomorrow. Latest KBLX VWP shows SW winds @25kt less than 1kft above the surface. As a result expect warmer air and gusty southwest winds to develop over the western foothills overnight as well as poking into at least the higher hills across central zones. This will include KBIL though have kept wind gusts at the lower end of whats possible for now.

KLVM will see southwest gusts in the 40 to 50kt range through tomorrow morning. Low level wind shear is in the TAFs for KBIL/KSHR/KMLS at various times through tomorrow morning. Warm advection usually leads to some low lying fog development this time of year, but the current situation shows strong enough winds just off the surface that mechanical mixing will likely inhibit fog development for all but he lowest river valley locations across the eastern half of the forecast area. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through Sunday. Chambers

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS

Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ----------------------------------------------------------- BIL 004/041 031/046 038/049 035/048 023/039 029/047 027/043 00/B 00/B 01/B 16/O 11/B 24/O 42/S LVM 029/053 035/055 042/052 038/049 025/040 030/047 027/041 00/N 00/N 01/N 28/O 12/S 56/O 42/S HDN 002/039 020/045 034/048 031/048 016/037 024/047 023/042 00/B 00/U 01/B 27/O 21/B 24/O 42/S MLS 002/038 023/042 034/046 030/045 012/027 018/041 017/035 00/U 00/B 01/B 24/O 21/B 22/O 31/B 4BQ 007/043 025/044 035/049 032/050 017/035 025/047 024/041 00/U 00/U 01/B 14/O 20/B 12/O 31/B BHK 911/039 023/043 032/046 025/042 007/023 011/040 013/032 00/U 00/U 01/B 24/O 20/B 12/O 31/B SHR 005/047 027/052 033/053 030/053 018/040 023/050 022/042 00/U 00/U 01/B 15/O 21/B 12/O 42/S

BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...Wind Advisory in effect until 11 AM MST Sunday FOR ZONES 65-66. WY...None.