textproduct: Billings

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy west to northwest winds with gusts of 30-45 mph today and Thursday. Highest gusts in the west today and east Thursday.

- Scattered showers and a few weak thunderstorms today into Thursday. Snow showers over the mountains, to as low as 7000-8000 feet, may impact outdoor recreation and travel over the Beartooth Highway.

- Dry Thursday night through most of Friday. Warmer temps Friday.

- Canadian cold front late Friday or Friday night brings another dose of cool and wetter weather for the weekend.

- The risk of severe weather over the next week is very low.

UPDATE

At 230am, BLX radar shows an area of light showers developing under the PV max in Sheridan County. This activity should track eastward thru southeast MT over the next few hours. Looking upstream, satellite imagery shows the next shortwave in northern WA, a feature that will drop southeastward and provide ascent and colder temps aloft (700-500mb lapse rates analyzed to be 7.5c/km). So there will be showers and a few weak t-storms this afternoon and evening, with greatest coverage over our south as high res models have been consistent in showing. Later tonight and Thursday morning on the back side of the trof there is a trowal and fairly high moisture, and confidence is increasing for a period of precip mainly over our central and east (western areas will be limited by downsloping breezy west winds). With this confidence have raised pops from 06-18z Thursday. Winds will gust 30-45 mph today across the area...perhaps approaching 50 mph along the western foothills but there is not enough mid level flow to support higher gusts than that through pure mixing. Locally higher gusts are possible with the shower activity. Regarding mountain snow, snow levels seem to be 8000-9000' MSL at this time. As the lobe of energy upstream moves thru south central MT this evening, with 700mb temps near -5C, snow levels could fall to as low as 7000 feet over the Beartooth Absarokas. Up to a couple inches of snow accumulation is expected over W-NW aspects. One thing to watch is if the mid level winds veer enough to the north to give a period of upslope snow to the mountains above Red Lodge. If so, this would be a greater impact to Beartooth Pass tonight. Something to watch today. Otherwise, it will be chilly today with highs ranging from the upper 50s west to near 70F east.

JKL

AVIATION

Isolated showers early today will increase in coverage to scattered showers and isolated weak thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Mountains will be frequently obscured in rain/snow showers (snow levels around 8000ft AGL) while local/brief MVFR is possible with the heavier showers at lower elevations. Showers are likely from KBIL eastward late tonight, and during this time there is a greater chance of MVFR. The risk of TS impacting a TAF site is low, thus not included in the 06Z TAFs.

Brisk W-NW winds will continue through the period. Gusts 15-25kts tonight will increase to 25-40kts from mid morning to evening. All TAF sites will be impacted by gusty winds today.

JKL

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS

Tdy Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 067 049/075 049/079 052/065 045/066 046/074 049/082 2/T 62/W 00/U 45/T 44/T 21/B 11/B LVM 057 039/071 041/077 043/062 037/062 038/071 041/080 5/T 40/N 00/U 36/T 44/T 12/T 11/B HDN 069 046/074 045/080 049/066 043/066 043/072 045/080 2/T 73/W 00/U 55/T 44/T 22/W 11/B MLS 070 047/071 046/077 050/066 045/066 045/071 047/078 1/N 95/W 00/U 33/W 23/T 12/T 11/B 4BQ 069 046/069 045/078 050/065 044/063 044/068 046/077 3/W 56/W 00/U 45/T 44/T 33/T 11/B BHK 069 043/067 044/075 045/064 042/063 043/068 044/074 2/N 79/T 00/U 32/W 33/T 23/T 11/B SHR 065 040/070 041/077 044/063 039/062 039/068 041/077 7/T 52/W 00/U 27/T 65/T 33/T 11/B

BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...None. WY...None.