textproduct: Billings

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme heat this weekend with triple digit highs and warm overnight lows.

- High temperatures on Sunday will challenge all-time records at all climate sites.

- Fire weather concerns increase for the weekend, peaking on Sunday with the combination of hot, dry and breezy conditions.

UPDATE

Shortwave lifting thru eastern MT brought pesky showers and some embedded lightning from Hysham to Forsyth and Miles City during the night. As of 415am this activity has just about exited. With cloud cover and a little wind, the Miles City airport stands at a balmy 84F. Temps early this morning are notably warmer than yesterday and this will translate to a hotter day today as a strong ridge builds aggressively from the south. Mesoanalysis shows 700mb temps of +14C right now, which would by itself get temps to 100F this afternoon, but models show this rising to +17C or +18C by 00z. Temps will climb above 100F across most of the region today, generally 100-107F. This will be enough to tie or break daily records at each of our 5 main airport climate stations. Please protect yourself from the heat!

Forecast is in good shape. Bumped up forecast highs in Sheridan a bit for today and tomorrow, based on expected mix downs. Looking beyond the weekend, it appears that monsoonal flow will introduce a risk of high-based convection in our west by late Monday...so have made this adjustment as well. We may see an increase in high clouds over our west by Sunday afternoon. Monsoonal surges are always tricky and this will need to be monitored.

JKL

AVIATION

Issued 11z. Dry conditions w/ widespread clear skies will dominate the region today and tonight, as strong high pressure aloft builds from the south. Surface temperatures will exceed 100F today. The heat will result in a high density altitude. JKL

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS

Tdy Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 105 068/109 071/100 072/096 068/089 065/091 066/094 0/G 00/G 00/U 01/U 44/T 52/T 31/U LVM 102 058/106 060/100 062/094 059/087 058/089 058/092 0/G 00/N 01/U 14/T 67/T 64/T 42/T HDN 105 064/112 069/101 070/099 068/092 065/093 065/096 0/G 00/G 00/G 00/U 32/W 42/T 31/U MLS 104 069/111 074/102 071/100 069/093 067/094 067/095 0/G 00/G 00/G 00/U 31/B 31/B 31/B 4BQ 102 068/108 076/104 071/101 071/097 068/094 067/095 0/G 00/G 00/G 00/G 11/U 31/B 31/U BHK 102 067/107 073/102 068/098 065/095 063/092 062/093 0/G 00/G 00/G 00/U 11/U 32/W 21/U SHR 103 059/108 068/099 065/099 064/092 062/092 062/092 0/G 00/N 00/U 00/U 13/T 44/T 33/T

BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...Extreme Heat Warning in effect until midnight MDT Monday night FOR ZONES 29>34-36-37-40-42-56>58-63>66-138-139-141-169-170-172-173-228-235. Fire Weather Watch in effect from Sunday morning through Sunday evening FOR ZONES 123>133. WY...Extreme Heat Warning in effect until midnight MDT Monday night FOR ZONE 199. Fire Weather Watch in effect from Sunday morning through Sunday evening FOR ZONE 274.