textproduct: Billings

KEY MESSAGES

- A few severe storms capable of producing strong wind gusts and locally heavy rain over southeast MT this afternoon into early evening.

- Continued hot with a daily chance (10-30%) of thunderstorms through Friday.

- Very hot & dry Saturday with widespread triple digit heat; elevated fire weather concerns.

- Weak cold front arrives late Saturday night; a stronger front arrives Sunday night. Cooler temps coming next Monday & Tuesday.

UPDATE

Isolated showers and thunderstorms (15% chance) are lifting north and east through the area early this morning as monsoonal moisture and weak energy lift into the region. Expect thunderstorm coverage to increase this afternoon and evening as a shortwave moves through the region and a weak front creates an area of convergence over our southeast. Have updated PoPs through this morning and adjusted temperatures to latest trends. Otherwise, the going forecast remains in good shape and covers our severe weather threat well for this afternoon and evening. STP

AVIATION

Isolated showers and perhaps a weak thunderstorm will move northeast through central areas this morning. A disturbance lifting through the region will bring another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to the area this afternoon and evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and into the early evening near and east of a KMLS to KSHR line. Wind gusts greater than 50 kts are the main threat along with brief heavy rainfall, though hail is still a risk to a lesser extent. Elsewhere, (including KBIL) thunderstorms could produce wind gusts to 40 kts during the afternoon and evening. Look for showers and weak thunderstorms to linger into the overnight hours. Local MVFR conditions are possible under the strongest activity.

Smoke from distant wildfires will continue to reduce slant range visibility through the period. Some surface reductions are possible at times. STP

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS

Tdy Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 095 066/096 065/099 067/105 070/093 062/083 058/087 2/T 31/U 20/U 00/G 00/U 00/U 00/U LVM 093 058/095 058/097 061/103 061/092 052/083 050/086 3/T 31/K 20/U 00/G 00/N 10/U 00/U HDN 097 065/096 062/101 064/107 069/096 061/086 056/090 2/W 41/K 21/G 00/G 00/U 00/U 00/U MLS 101 069/094 065/100 067/107 075/095 065/085 057/088 2/W 34/T 20/U 00/G 00/U 00/U 01/U 4BQ 099 068/091 064/096 066/104 074/096 066/086 060/087 4/T 53/T 22/T 10/G 00/U 10/U 11/U BHK 099 064/090 060/096 063/102 070/097 063/086 054/086 4/T 43/T 21/U 00/G 00/U 20/U 11/U SHR 097 061/093 058/097 060/106 065/096 059/086 053/089 2/T 53/T 22/T 00/G 00/U 00/U 00/U

BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...None. WY...None.