textproduct: Billings

KEY MESSAGES

- Impactful weather system continues into Friday. Impacts include strong winds, mixed precipitation (rain and snow), and cooler temperatures.

- The strongest winds are expected this morning through this afternoon, associated with a cold front dropping through the region. Expect widespread gusts in the 40s and 50s mph.

- The weather system will impact impact travel and recreation in the high country. Cool and wet conditions will impact young livestock.

UPDATE

Added a Winter Weather Advisory for the Beartooth and Red Lodge foothills from late this afternoon through Friday. Combination of upslope winds, strong low to mid level instability, and good lift through the dendritic growth zone should bring periods of moderate snow to these areas tonight. Additional snow showers enhanced by continued upslope winds pushed the advisory out through Friday afternoon. Metro Model shows foothills roadways, including highway 78, road temperatures falling to freezing or slightly below tonight so expecting at least locally slick road conditions in the advisory area, including Red Lodge. Heaviest accumulations will be closest to the mountains.

Rest of the forecast on track. Continue to see occasional gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range this morning east of a Hysham to Sheridan line early this morning, along with a broad area of light precipitation, mainly rain, over central zones. This initial area should shift east this morning with a break in persisten precipitation, but still scattered showers, through mid afternoon. Push of colder air with a turn to northerly winds will bring back in more persistent precipitation (turning to all snowfall) for late afternoon through late tonight.

No changes to remaining winter highlites this morning. Chambers

AVIATION

Upper level system is moving through the forecast area this evening. We have seen strong wind gusts over 50kts in and out of convection this evening and will continue to see gusts in the 30 to 45kt range for most of the night, tapering off about 10kts by sunrise. Initial vort max is moving into NE Montana at this time dragging an area of convection with it. A band of showers is moving in from the northwest and will bring a 3 to 6 hour period of MVFR to local IFR conditions as it spreads across the forecast area through the sunrise hours this morning.

There will be a break in the more persistent precipitation for most areas from mid morning through mid afternoon with downslope westerly winds increasing back into the 25 to 40kt range during this drier period, though there will still be isolated to scattered mainly rain showers in the lower elevations (snow above 4500 feet). Colder more northerly push of air drops in mid afternoon and will increase precipitation chances and drop flight categories back into the MVFR to IFR range for the end of the day into the evening hours. Precipitation will change from mainly rain to all snow as this colder air moves through the forecast area. Wind speeds will decrease with this cold push as well, mainly in the 15 to 25kt range through the evening. Chambers

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS

Tdy Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 051 030/046 026/048 027/044 031/051 032/062 038/060 7/W 44/J 11/B 14/J 43/W 12/W 23/W LVM 046 023/040 018/044 023/043 026/051 029/058 034/059 9/T 76/J 22/J 24/J 34/W 12/W 13/W HDN 052 028/047 024/049 026/046 029/051 030/063 035/062 8/W 44/J 22/J 25/J 53/W 13/W 23/W MLS 048 028/044 025/044 025/044 028/048 028/059 033/059 9/W 11/N 11/B 14/J 42/J 11/U 11/B 4BQ 050 029/045 025/046 027/042 028/046 027/058 033/057 8/W 22/J 11/B 36/W 52/W 11/B 12/W BHK 046 024/044 022/043 023/041 026/044 024/054 028/054 9/W 01/N 11/B 25/J 52/W 11/U 11/B SHR 050 024/041 020/046 023/042 026/047 026/057 031/057 8/W 87/J 33/J 37/W 54/W 23/W 24/W

BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 PM MDT Friday FOR ZONES 56-66. Winter Storm Warning in effect until 6 AM MDT Friday FOR ZONES 67-68. WY...Winter Weather Advisory in effect until midnight MDT tonight FOR ZONE 198.