textproduct: Billings

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect increased wildfire smoke today.

- Chance for precipitation in south-central Montana this afternoon and evening.

- Warmer today through first half of work week.

- Pattern turns more unsettled for the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION

Through Sunday Night...

Ridging aloft will be centered right over our region today allowing temps to climb well above normal, into the mid and upper 80s for most locations (70s in the high country). Unfortunately, this will also allow a good deal of wildfire smoke to swing back into our area from the west...though concentrations near the surface are not expected to be quite as bad as last week. So expect hazy skies and some minor impacts for sensitive groups.

By this afternoon, a weak shortwave trough will move through the ridge and track across our region. This will bring a chance for showers and isolated thundershowers that will be mainly confined to the mountains and foothills...but there is a chance some high based convective activity spills over to the plains as far east as Yellowstone and perhaps Southern Big Horn counties. We expect any activity will weaken and dissipate toward sunset as diurnal heating diminishes. Synoptic winds will be westerly which will keep storms elevated in an inverted-v sounding environment. Thus, main threat is some locally strong wind gusts near showers, especially in the foothills, but no strong storms are expected as MUCAPE values remain limited.

Lows tonight will be more seasonal and not as chilly, with readings in the upper 40s to mid 50s. BT

Monday through Saturday...

Ridging will continue to build over the Northern Rockies beginning Monday. Temperatures will climb above normal, in the 80s to 90F, through Wednesday. A deepening trough is shown by ensembles moving ashore the West Coast. This will bring a pattern change with active southwest flow and moisture, Wednesday and Thursday. Meteograms depict CAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg both days, with the highest values in the far east. It is too soon to determine the threat for strong to severe thunderstorms, but the chance for precipitation will increase across southeastern MT and northern WY by mid-week.

High temperatures are forecast in the upper 70s to mid 80sF on Thursday, before a cool down back into the low-mid 70sF next Friday and Saturday. The chance for precipitation currently appears to continue into next weekend as the trough slowly progresses through the Mountain West. Matos

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail this morning. Smoke may reduce visibilities to 6SM for sites including and west of KSHR this afternoon. Reductions to slant range visibility should also be expected today. A disturbance will bring a chance for showers to western mountains and foothills this afternoon, including KLVM. Matos

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS

Tdy Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 088 058/087 056/087 057/084 058/079 056/075 053/075 2/T 21/H 01/B 32/W 34/W 56/T 54/W LVM 084 048/082 048/081 047/079 046/076 046/070 044/071 3/T 21/H 04/T 34/T 56/T 67/T 55/T HDN 088 055/088 052/090 055/086 054/081 053/076 050/076 0/H 20/H 00/B 31/B 33/W 55/T 64/W MLS 086 056/088 054/089 061/089 060/084 058/079 055/076 0/U 10/H 00/U 32/W 32/W 45/T 64/W 4BQ 085 058/085 056/086 060/087 060/083 057/078 055/073 0/U 10/H 00/U 21/B 22/W 34/T 54/W BHK 082 051/086 051/085 055/085 056/083 055/080 051/074 0/U 00/H 00/U 22/W 32/T 34/T 54/T SHR 085 051/084 051/085 052/084 052/080 049/076 046/073 1/H 11/H 01/B 32/W 33/W 46/T 65/W

BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...None. WY...None.