textproduct: Billings

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable temperatures (highs in the 40s/50s) this week. - Localized fog early this morning.

- Weather system brings a shot of rain/mtn snow this afternoon through Tuesday afternoon, as well as gusty west winds. - Mainly dry and breezy at times last half of the work week.

UPDATE

Narrow band of light rain/snow continues from near Colstrip to Miles City and Baker as of 0945z, in response to a very weak and slow-moving wave lifting thru southeast MT. Many locations from Rosebud County eastward have actually received 0.01-0.10" of precip over the past 12hrs. It has snowed intermittently at Baker and Ekalaka but airport cameras show wet ground only, though there likely has been a dusting of snow over the higher hills. Skies are mostly clear over the west half of the forecast area and we have yet to see any fog develop. High res models continue to show fog development along a low level convergent axis from Musselshell to Yellowstone and Big Horn Counties by 12z. Dew point spreads are still several degrees so confidence remains low for fog. Will continue to monitor. Satellite imagery shows an upper low over BC/WA and a surface cold front is in central WA/OR. Ascent will reach our west this evening bringing increasing potential for showers. The greatest risk of a few weak thunderstorms is to our west in south central MT, but could see a few rumbles reach our far west (HREF shows a smattering of 40dbz paintballs between 03-06z). In any event, expect lower elevation rain showers and mountain snow in the west tonight, reaching Billings after midnight. Mountains' SW-NW aspects should see a few inches of snow accumulation. Frontal precip may drive ptype to snow along western foothills including Livingston but surface temps should remain warm enough to prevent any accumulation below ~5kft. However, I-90 over Bozeman Pass could see difficult travel conditions briefly. JKL

AVIATION

Issued 10z. Pockets of light rain/drizzle/snow east of KBIL should taper off by sunrise. Expect widespread low ceilings (mostly MVFR) to continue impacting the east (KMLS-KBHK-K97M) today and tonight, with localized fog an additional impact near the Dakotas border tonight. For areas to the west, localized fog is still expected to develop in some river valleys and near the foothills. Impacts to KBIL, KSHR, and KLVM are possible through ~16z, but confidence remains low (30%). This will be something to monitor. Once morning fog/low clouds erode in the west, VFR will prevail through the day. Tonight, expect a Pacific front to bring rain/snow showers beginning by late evening in the far west, and spreading eastward to KBIL overnight, resulting in obscurations of the Crazy and Beartooth Absaroka Mountains and localized MVFR at lower elevations. Brisk west winds gusting 20-30 knots will develop along the western foothills (KLVM-K6S0-KHWQ) after 06z. JKL

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS

Tdy Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 051 037/058 034/058 031/052 032/046 030/052 034/053 0/U 52/W 00/U 00/U 01/E 11/B 22/W LVM 051 033/052 024/052 024/052 030/050 032/053 030/052 0/U 82/W 00/U 00/B 12/W 22/W 43/W HDN 058 033/061 028/061 026/055 028/050 027/055 030/056 0/U 35/W 00/U 00/U 01/B 11/B 22/W MLS 049 032/054 031/058 029/053 029/051 031/052 032/055 1/E 06/W 00/U 00/U 01/E 22/W 22/W 4BQ 049 034/059 032/060 030/057 033/055 034/055 035/058 1/E 02/W 00/U 00/U 00/B 21/B 22/W BHK 043 025/053 028/058 026/055 026/051 029/053 031/056 2/S 02/W 00/U 00/U 11/B 33/W 22/W SHR 057 030/059 025/059 024/058 026/054 027/056 029/057 0/B 22/B 00/U 00/U 01/B 11/B 23/W

BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...None. WY...None.