textproduct: Billings

KEY MESSAGES

- Storm system early this morning into Saturday morning brings lower elevation rain and mountain/higher foothills snow; greatest precipitation totals expected west of Billings, with little to no precipitation over SE Montana.

- Critical Fire Weather Conditions this afternoon/evening from Sheridan County eastward across much of SE Montana.

- Windy conditions (gusts 25-45 mph) expected today into early Saturday. - Seasonable temperatures (highs in the 50s) this weekend into next week.

- Unsettled conditions (20-50% precipitation chances) late Sunday through midweek. Uncertainty is high for the extended forecast.

UPDATE

Latest 300mb analysis shows an 80kt southerly jet lifting from UT/CO into southwest WY, on the eastern flank of the main upper low over the great basin. Flow aloft is becoming more diffluent over our region, and we are starting to see some light showers eke into the Beartooth-Absarokas (though main area of precip is further to the south/southwest). With the increasing large scale ascent should come expanding shower coverage over the west half of the cwa this morning, which may include Billings between roughly 14-18z. Greater chances of precip will of course begin this afternoon in the west as a Canadian cold front arrives. This front is currently near the AB/MT border. Freezing levels will fall quickly late today and believe a mix with or changeover to wet snow will occur at Judith Gap by mid afternoon, and Livingston before sunset. This will need to be monitored as travel will likely become difficult fairly quickly through Judith Gap as well as over Bozeman Pass and possibly on US-191 through Melville. Forecast is in good shape and have made no changes to either the Winter Wx Advy for Judith Gap or the Red Flag Warning for our southeast. Regarding fire wx, expect teens RHs with near record daily high temps today along with breezy and well-mixed SW winds...then a late day wind shift with the fropa.

Forecast is in good shape. Adjusted pops/wx/temps a bit to get a quicker changeover to snow at the aforementioned locations. Also dropped expected Tds/RHs today from Sheridan across southeast MT. It will be interesting to watch SHR today with mixed SW winds expected along the east side of the Bighorns. Overachieving temps are a good bet and have also raised temps a bit in this area.

JKL

AVIATION

Updated 11z.

VFR will prevail across the region thru the morning, with the possible exception of localized valley fog (15% chance) east of KBIL until 15z. Approaching disturbances from the SW and NW will bring a variety of aviation impacts over the next 24 hours. Prior to a cold front, expect SW-W winds to increase along the southern foothills into southeast MT with gusts 20-40 knots from KLVM to KSHR, K00F, K97M & KBHK (winds in the lee of the Beartooths & Bighorns will be erratic). Behind the front will be a shift to brisk NW winds gusting 25-40 knots across lower elevations. As the front arrives shower activity will increase this afternoon in the west, then over west/central parts tonight. Mountains will become obscured in snow, and western foothills (KLVM-K6S0-KHWQ) will see rain showers switch to wet snow and reductions to MVFR-IFR. VFR should prevail over the east (Rosebud County eastward) through tonight. The western foothills should see drying and a transition back to VFR late tonight. JKL

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS

Tdy Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 067 033/052 030/050 031/050 033/054 034/051 030/046 7/W 90/U 00/U 00/B 13/W 53/W 11/B LVM 056 022/048 022/048 023/051 026/053 025/048 023/047 +/O +0/U 00/U 00/U 26/W 63/J 22/J HDN 073 028/054 025/055 030/055 030/057 030/053 025/049 5/W 90/U 00/U 11/B 13/W 63/W 11/B MLS 077 033/049 030/053 033/048 032/053 032/049 028/047 0/N 70/B 00/U 22/W 22/W 43/W 11/B 4BQ 080 035/049 031/050 033/047 032/056 033/051 030/049 0/N 20/U 02/W 31/E 22/W 43/W 11/B BHK 083 029/048 023/050 026/043 024/049 027/050 024/047 0/N 20/N 01/B 43/W 31/B 54/W 21/B SHR 076 026/051 024/053 027/053 028/057 028/053 025/051 0/N 50/U 00/B 11/B 12/W 53/W 11/B

BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM MDT Saturday FOR ZONE 63. Red Flag Warning in effect from noon today to midnight MDT tonight FOR ZONES 131-133. WY...Red Flag Warning in effect from noon today to midnight MDT tonight FOR ZONE 274.