textproduct: Billings

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty westerly winds (35 to 50 mph) over the foothills west of Billings today (Livingston, Nye, Big Timber, Harlowton).

- Periods of moderate to heavy snow in the mountains today into Sunday morning. Total accumulations over a foot forecast, greatest on west and northwest facing slopes.

- Isolated to scattered rain/snow showers over the lower elevations this afternoon into Friday morning.

- Better chance of accumulating snow over the lower elevations Friday evening into Sunday morning (uncertainty remains on amounts).

- Confidence increasing on warmer and potentially very windy weather pattern for early next week.

UPDATE

Updated forecast for latest precipitation and wind trends. Winds stayed on the lower end of guidance overnight along the upper Yellowstone and Stillwater river valleys as a disturbance crossing the area disturbed the delicate gap wind setup for most of the night. However winds have been increasing over the western foothills over the past few hours as one disturbance pulls away and another is approaching. Gusts to 48 mph have been recorded in Big Timber over the past hour and gusts northward to Harlowton have reached the mid 30s. Latest guidance seems to have a better handle on things for this afternoon and expect to see gusts in the 35 to 50 mph range across the western foothills today.

The aforementioned disturbance arrives late afternoon and will bring a chance (20-40% lower elevations) for light snow to most areas late in the day into the evening hours. Best chances for lower elevation accumulating snow will be from Rosebud county east to the Dakotas, but this is only around a 10% chance for an inch.

Precipitation sags into the northern Bighorn and Pryor mountains overnight tonight and hangs around into Friday morning. Winter Weather Advisory handles this well for 4 to 8 inches of snow there, with lesser amounts expected further south into the Burgess Junction vicinity. Western mountains will get into a prolonged period of snow that lasts through Saturday as this disturbance arrives. Going Winter Storm Warnings for the Beartooth/Absaroka/Crazy mountains is in good shape with no changes this morning. Chambers

AVIATION

Gusty surface winds around 35 to 45 kts will continue to impact KLVM, K6S0, and K1KM into this evening. Snow showers will begin near KLVM around 18Z and spread east through the afternoon and evening, becoming rain and snow showers. Expect mountain obscuration and occasional ceiling and visibility reductions to MVFR and IFR with the showers. Archer

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS

Tdy Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 037 029/036 021/031 017/038 030/042 032/046 029/038 2/O 33/S 85/S 20/B 11/N 14/O 55/O LVM 037 026/039 028/039 024/041 031/044 032/049 032/046 5/S 76/O 87/S 31/N 21/N 24/O 55/O HDN 038 027/037 018/030 013/039 024/042 026/046 025/037 3/O 63/S 97/S 41/B 21/B 24/R 65/O MLS 036 025/032 012/021 007/029 020/040 025/041 022/032 3/O 51/B 72/S 40/B 20/B 14/O 53/S 4BQ 036 028/034 019/028 013/036 024/042 028/044 025/036 2/B 51/B 42/S 30/B 10/B 13/O 54/O BHK 034 022/031 008/017 002/029 016/039 021/039 016/030 2/Q 43/S 52/S 30/E 10/N 14/O 42/S SHR 040 023/036 018/035 016/042 022/045 025/050 025/041 2/B 65/S 64/S 30/B 10/B 12/O 55/O

BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...Winter Storm Warning in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM MST Saturday FOR ZONES 67-68. Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 PM MST Friday FOR ZONE 171. WY...None.