textproduct: Billings

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog this morning, esepcailly near Billings.

- Warmer and drier much of the work week. 80s return midweek.

- Scattered showers and storms late Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Potential weather system late Friday into the Weekend.

UPDATE

10z satellite imagery shows low stratus continuing to affect far southeast MT. Skies are clear elsewhere but there is localized fog developing, most notably in northern Rosebud County and along portions of the Musselshell valley. AWOS stations at Hardin and Colstrip are also reporting reduced visibility. Dew point depressions are low and fog will continue to expand in coverage between now and sunrise. Billings is a difficult call at this time, but winds at the airport are starting to show light SW drainage which would support fog. Will probably need to see temps fall to the upper 40s for fog at KBIL (current is 54F).

Otherwise today will be dry and warmer w/ widespread temps in the 70s to near 80F. Looking to the southwest, a monsoonal wave is lifting through the southern great basin and there is quite a bit of lightning in southern UT. This feature will bring a risk of showers and some thunderstorms in our region tonight, starting after 00z.

Finally, new model runs are trending more supportive of showers in our east on Friday, courtesy of another monsoonal wave which is currently near Baja California. Still a good amount of model spread here.

JKL

AVIATION

10z discussion.

Area of low stratus w/ MVFR/IFR ceilings in far southeast MT (i.e. Carter/Powder River/Fallon Counties) will linger through the morning. Elsewhere, localized fog is developing around the region but is not yet impacting a TAF site. There remains a low risk (20%) of fog at KBIL, KSHR & KLVM between 10-15z, and this will continue to be monitored, though confidence in fog has decreased since the 06z TAF issuance. Otherwise, VFR will prevail today under high pressure aloft. A disturbance from the SW will bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms tonight, with local MVFR and erratic surface winds possible. JKL

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS

Tdy Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 077 055/079 052/081 054/082 054/073 047/070 048/069 0/B 44/W 00/U 00/U 11/B 01/B 43/W LVM 078 048/077 045/081 048/082 048/072 041/070 041/067 0/B 51/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 11/B 54/W HDN 080 051/080 046/084 052/084 050/075 044/074 045/071 0/U 52/W 00/U 00/U 01/B 11/B 42/W MLS 078 053/078 050/084 056/081 054/075 048/073 049/071 0/U 54/T 00/U 02/W 10/U 10/B 43/W 4BQ 077 053/077 049/081 055/079 054/076 049/075 050/072 0/U 41/B 00/U 12/W 00/U 11/B 43/W BHK 072 048/076 047/083 051/076 051/077 045/074 047/071 0/N 55/T 00/U 03/W 10/U 10/U 54/W SHR 078 047/076 043/081 050/081 048/078 043/075 045/071 0/U 31/U 00/U 11/B 01/U 11/U 34/W

BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MT...None. WY...None.