textproduct: Buffalo

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures and high humidity today. Warmest heat index values reaching the lower to mid 90s and possibly allowing for an increased risk in heat related illnesses.

2) Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms today.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures and high humidity today. Warmest heat index values reaching the lower to mid 90s and possibly allowing for an increased risk in heat related illnesses.

A mid-level ridge over New York State will exit east into New England today. Associated heat and humidity will continue, however due to the exiting mid-level ridge and approaching surface trough/cold front, any chance of headline-worthy heat appears to be limited to portions of the Finger Lakes/central New York and looks to be very marginal in nature, with confidence in apparent temperatures reaching Heat Advisory criteria is low.

Cooler and less humid air will follow the cold front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms today.

A mid-level trough will cross Ontario into western Quebec, with an associated surface low near Hudson Bay sending a cold front across through the region between this morning and early this afternoon. The front will encounter a very warm and humid airmass and generate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.

The progressively nature of the front will limit the severe risk across western New York, with a somewhat better severe potential for far eastern portions of the area. Locally heavy rainfall is possible areawide with PWATs of 1.5-2.0 inches, supporting a risk of torrential downpours.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Nocturnal cooling of our warm/humid airmass and light winds will allow for the potential development of some areas of IFR/MVFR stratus and/or fog across the Southern Tier and areas east of Lake Ontario through early morning.

A cold front and possibly a leading pre-frontal trough across the area between the morning and early afternoon hours will be marked by a period of MVFR/low VFR ceilings, as well as scattered showers and thunderstorms that will become more numerous across the Finger Lakes and central NY as the front/prefrontal trough push eastward and interact with the heating of the day.

While the earlier timing of the front will likely help to keep any risk for strong to severe storms confined to far eastern portions of the area, the very humid airmass will result in a risk of torrential downpours and resultant brief reductions to IFR visibilities within any heavier showers or storms. Following the frontal passage, dry weather will return with flight conditions improving to unlimited VFR from west to east this afternoon and evening.

Outlook...

Tonight through Saturday night...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Monday...Mainly VFR, though there is a slight chance for a few showers.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR, MVFR possible within a few showers/storms that may move across the area

MARINE

A cold front will cross the lower Great Lakes today. Preceding the front, south and southwest winds will remain under 15 knots. The passage of the cold front will freshen southwesterlies up to around 20 knots. Wave heights may briefly reach 4 or 5 feet on the eastern ends of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario from mid morning through this afternoon.

Winds will relax tonight and Saturday, while remaining generally out of the southwest. Speed of up to 15 knots may create some choppy conditions at times on both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario.

Southwest winds will eventually turn out of the westerly by the end of the weekend and into Monday. Speeds near 20 knots on Lake Ontario may bring a period of small craft headlines, especially on the eastern end.

The cold frontal passage today will bring the risk of thunderstorms which could trigger marine warnings with gusty winds and locally higher waves. The greatest risk will be across the central and eastern portion of Lake Ontario.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ040-041.