textproduct: Buffalo
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
SYNOPSIS
A warm front will move northeast across the region later tonight and Monday, bringing an increase in clouds and possibly a passing light shower or two, but most of the time will stay dry. The warm front will usher in another day of well above average temperatures Tuesday. A cold front will then bring a few showers later Tuesday night through early Wednesday, followed by drier and cooler weather for the second half of the week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Nighttime microphysics satellite imagery showing mainly clear skies across the region early this evening with a few mid/high clouds filtering across far western New York. Mid/high clouds upstream across lower Michigan and southern Ontario will continue to spread east into the area later this evening.
The center of the strong surface high will continue to drift east across New England tonight, then into the Gulf of Maine Monday. A strong mid level ridge will quickly build along the east coast Monday in response to a deep trough moving across the Rockies and into the High Plains. A broad area of warm advection and moisture transport will develop across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes ahead of the trough. The majority of the more active weather with this system will stay west and northwest of our region through the early part of the week.
Tonight, expect thickening and lowering mid/high clouds as warm advection and moisture transport increase in the mid levels. Skies will still be clear enough, and winds light enough, to allow for early radiational cooling. Expect lows to drop back into the 30s in most areas and 20s for the North Country through the first half of the night. The thickening clouds and increasing southerly breeze will then force temperatures to start rising late tonight, especially across Western NY.
Monday, areas of mid level clouds will continue to cross the region, limiting the amount of sun. The better forcing and deeper moisture will remain north and west of our region, although a few brief sprinkles or light showers are possible in the warm advection regime, especially near the Canadian border. Despite the cloud cover, increasing southerly downslope winds and ongoing warm advection will boost temperatures into the low to mid 60s across the lake plains of Western NY, and 50s elsewhere.
It will become breezy late tonight and Monday, especially for downslope areas in Western NY. Expect gusts of 30-35 mph along the Lake Erie shore to the lee of the Chautauqua Ridge, and 20-30 mph elsewhere.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Monday night and Tuesday the leading edge of a deep upper level trough will make its way east across the Plains States to the Upper Great Lakes...as an embedded shortwave ripples northeastward along its front flank. Meanwhile at the surface...low pressure over the southern Plains will consolidate and lift to the Upper Great Lakes in tandem with the aforementioned shortwave. Downstream of all this...our region will remain predominantly under the influence of deep-layer ridging that will continue to slowly drift eastward into the western Atlantic. Attendant subsidence and drier air at the lower levels should help to keep our region largely dry through Tuesday...with just a few widely scattered to scattered showers possible across our northern periphery Monday night into early Tuesday in association with a passing warm frontal segment.
The above said...the big story through Tuesday will be the next round of unseasonable warmth...courtesy of the deepening/ strengthening south to south-southwesterly flow in between the departing ridge and advancing trough. Under this regime lows Monday night will have trouble falling below the mid to upper 40s across the interior of the Southern Tier/North Country and the lower to mid 50s elsewhere...with an added boost from downsloping likely even helping to keep areas along the Lake Erie shoreline from falling below the upper 50s. These lows should also tend to occur during the first half of the night...with steady or slowly rising temps expected thereafter. The warming trend will then really kick into high gear on Tuesday...when the continued deep south-southwesterly flow and 925 mb temps rising into the mid to upper teens will allow highs to surge back into the 70s in most areas...with the lake plains of western New York again seeing a boost from downsloping and therefore likely to once again see readings peak in the mid to upper 70s...or some 25 degrees or so above normal. For reference...current record highs for November 5th were all set in 2022 and are 79 at Buffalo...77 at Rochester...and 77 at Watertown...and it appears that these will at least be approached at KBUF/KROC. Tuesday will also be a fairly breezy to windy day...with this especially the case across far western New York where a 40-50 knot 925-850 mb jet should partially mix to the surface...thereby supporting gusts of at least 30-35 mph.
As we push through Tuesday night the main shortwave and second surface low will eject northeastward into Quebec...while pushing its trailing cold front east and into our area. This will eventually bring some showers into our region as the night progresses...though these will likely be in a weakening state by the time they arrive as the portion of the front over our area encounters a drier airmass and becomes increasingly estranged from the better upper level support...which currently still looks to pass by to our north. Otherwise we can expect another rather mild night...with lows ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s...with the warmest readings most likely to be found across the Finger Lakes region.
On Wednesday the weakening cold front will quickly exit to our east during the morning...with high pressure and drier air then building east across our region during the afternoon. The resulting drying and loss of forcing for ascent should result in scattered to numerous early morning showers diminishing to some much spottier leftover activity across our southern and eastern periphery by early afternoon...with most areas more likely to see a dry second half of the day. Otherwise cooler air filtering in behind the departing front will result in a somewhat cooler day compared to Tuesday... though temps will still be well above normal with most areas seeing readings peak in the mid to upper 60s...and a few spots in the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes possibly even tickling the 70 degree mark again. In general...surface high pressure and somewhat cooler air should then continue to build across our region Wednesday night...resulting in largely dry weather along with temps settling back into the lower to mid 40s...which will still be some 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
High pressure and a ridge building into the region will result in mainly dry conditions for Thursday through Saturday night. A passing secondary cold front on Thursday morning may cause a few showers. Also, there is some timing uncertainty with a system and its frontal boundaries approaching from the Mississippi Valley and when showers associated with it will move into the area.
Sunday, the area of low pressure over the Mississippi Valley will track northeast across the upper Great Lakes through the day. The systems warm & cold fronts will track across the region on Sunday, bringing showers into the western & north central NY area. As mentioned above, some timing issues with the incoming showers on Sunday among the global models, with the ECMWF the slowest. Guidance start times range from mid-morning through early afternoon for showers moving into WNY.
Temperatures during the period will still remain a solid 5 degrees above normal, or more with highs in the 50s to near 60. Depending on the timing of the incoming system and its frontal boundaries, if the warm front lifts farther north earlier, temperatures on Sunday could be even warmer with the area more within the warm sector of the system.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions prevail this evening despite mid to high level clouds thickening and advancing east across far WNY. These clouds will continue to advect east across the region tonight through Monday as a warm front begins to cross the region. Periods of mid level clouds will continue through Monday along with a low chance of a passing light shower. Despite this, VFR flight conditions will prevail.
Outside of this, it will become quite breezy late tonight and Monday, with southerly winds gusting between 15 and 25 knots across much of the area and up to 30 knots possible along the Lake Erie shoreline due to downsloping winds on the lee side of the Chautauqua Ridge. The low level jet responsible for the gusty winds will produce a period of marginal low level wind shear late tonight through Monday morning across western NY into the Finger Lakes ahead of the more gusty surface winds.
Outlook...
Monday night through Tuesday...VFR with a small chance of showers, mainly near the Canadian border. Tuesday night through Wednesday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely. Thursday through Friday...VFR.
MARINE
High pressure will drift east across New England and then off the east coast tonight through Monday. Meanwhile, an elongated area of low pressure will advance east into the Plains. A tightening pressure gradient and low level jet between the two systems will bring increasing southerly winds on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Monday through Tuesday. Winds will occasionally reach Small Craft Advisory criteria, especially on Lake Erie and the northeast end of Lake Ontario.
A cold front will then cross the lower Great Lakes late Tuesday night and early Wednesday, with a period of elevated southwest winds and Small Craft Advisory conditions on Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Lighter winds will return Thursday through Friday as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Monday to 10 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ040-041. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 4 PM EST Wednesday for LOZ045.
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