textproduct: Buffalo

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will maintain dry weather tonight as it drifts to the southeast. The next storm system will arrive Monday, with gusty southwest winds ahead of a cold front that will bring a round of showers during the afternoon and evening hours.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Quiet weather remains through tonight as high pressure over the region drifts to the southeast. Mainly clear skies for much of tonight, with some increase in clouds late tonight.

A fast-moving shortwave will push through the upper Great Lakes toward Quebec Monday, and push a surface cold front through the region during the afternoon. Overall moisture quality looks limited, but a fairly dynamic system passing by to our north should generate a round of showers during the afternoon, especially across northern portions of the area. Potential for a windy day Monday, as low level jet strengthens ahead of the cold front. Momentum transfer technique suggesting wind gusts to near 45 mph, especially downwind of the lakes.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

CAA will briefly bring in a cooler airmass to the Lower Lakes Monday night with 850 T's briefly down to 0C to -4C. The westerly post- frontal winds will ever so slowly subside overnight. Given that the airmass behind the front is fairly dry, a lowering subsidence inversion, and the short fetch (west winds) across Lake Erie...lake induced showers will be fairly limited behind the front. Off Lake Ontario...a bit better of a fetch (long axis) and a potential upstream connection from lake Huron we may see some lake induced showers linger into Tuesday across Oswego Co.

Otherwise... expansive sfc ridge to our south will bring dry weather to a majority of the region through Tuesday night. Winds will continue to be a bit elevated Tuesday with gusts up to 25 mph.

Zonal flow aloft and a fast moving clipper low will bring the next chance of showers Wednesday afternoon-evening. The cold front sweeps through Wednesday night, with the potential for rain showers to mix with snow across the higher terrain overnight before ending Thursday. Minor accumulations expected at this point if any at all.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Transitory ridge builds east across the Ohio Valley and then New York State Thursday, which will bring mainly dry weather into the day Friday. Active weather returns Friday afternoon-evening as the next shortwave digs across the Great Lakes. After that...confidence begins to lower with the potential for it turning colder and possibly seeing the continuation of active weather.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Mainly VFR with gradually increasing mid and high clouds through tonight and Monday morning. Light variable winds will become southerly 5 to 10 knots tonight.

Outlook...

Monday...VFR becoming MVFR/IFR. Southwest gusts up to 40 knots downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Rain showers likely. Lowering ceiling heights across higher terrain and east of Lake Ontario. Rain showers taper off Monday night.

Tuesday...Becoming mainly VFR. A chance of a shower east of Lake Ontario.

Wednesday...MVFR/VFR. Rain showers late.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday...Restriction becoming likely with showers developing.

MARINE

Quiet marine conditions continuing through tonight as high pressure over the lower Great Lakes drifts off to the southeast, with winds turning southerly, but remain under 15 knots. Southwest winds ramp up Monday ahead of a cold front that will sweep across the lower Great Lakes Monday afternoon, veering winds to a west-northwest Monday evening. The potential exists for a period of sustained gales on both the eastern end of Lake Erie and all of Lake Ontario Monday afternoon into Monday night.

Elevated westerly winds continue Tuesday. After a lull in conditions Tuesday night, another cold front crosses the lower Great Lakes mid week with a period of elevated winds and a wind shift from southwest to northwest, with additional marine headlines likely during this time frame.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NY...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for LEZ040-041. Gale Watch from 9 AM EST Monday through late Monday night for LOZ042>045-062>065.