textproduct: Buffalo

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation Section for 18z TAF package. Updated Key Message 1 with some tweaks.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unusually warm weather is expected This afternoon and Wednesday, with forecast temperatures potentially reaching record highs for early November.

2) High probability for widespread showers Wednesday night through Thursday due to the passage of a cold front. Unsettled weather is expected to continue into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Unusually warm weather this afternoon and Wednesday, with forecast temperatures potentially reaching record highs for early November.

Temperatures already around 70F at KIAG and KROC. Record is 75F at KROC so that has a shot to be broken.

A mid-level ridge will continue to build east across the Atlantic seaboard through mid-week, supporting surface high pressure to persist off the eastern Atlantic. Overall this will support generally dry weather. The warm front has lifted through most of the western and central areas, and should reach the east by evenings. In the wake of the front, dry air advection and subsidence will support a decrease in cloud cover from west to east through tonight. A 25 to 30 knot low- level jet will move into the western Southern Tier tonight, supporting a south- southeast surface wind within a modest inversion. As such, gusty downslope winds of up to 30mph along and to the lee side of the Chautauqua Ridge is likely. Gusts will lessen on the lee side of the Ridge Wednesday.

As the upper ridge builds further north Wednesday, 850mb temperatures will continue to rise, peaking to +13C. As such another very warm day for early November is expected, where maximum temperatures will range in the mid to upper 70s. As winds are forecast to remain southerly, lake breeze influences will likely be limited and therefor allow temperatures to soar well above climatological norms. See Climate section for more information regarding record temperatures.

Cooler air will build into the region from west to east Thursday, however it will remain warm especially from the Finger Lakes region into north-central NY. Cooler weather, although still above normal is expected Friday into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...High probability for widespread showers Wednesday night through Thursday due to the passage of a cold front. Unsettled weather is expected to continue into the weekend.

Deep troughing and associated closed low will move into the Great Lakes for the later half of the work week. A deep southerly flow originating from the Gulf and southern Atlantic Ocean will support a plume of moisture into the eastern Great Lakes region Wednesday night through Thursday morning. This deep moisture combined with forcing from the surface to 500mb due to a passing cold front will support widespread showers across the region, and provide some much needed relief to the recent dry spell. However should note that the shower's residence timing will be quick, as the plume of moisture will move east of the region by Thursday afternoon. Forecast rainfall amounts will generally be less than a quarter of an inch by Thursday afternoon.

In the wake of the cold front, expect gusty southwest winds northeast of Lake Erie with gusts of 25 to 30 mph impacting much of the Niagara Frontier.

The trough will move overhead Friday and this weekend, where another cold front is progged to pass across the region, where chances for showers are possible.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

In the wake of the warm frontal passage, dry air advection and subsidence will result VFR cloud cover to scatter out from west to east this evening. MVFR lingering at KART should improve to VFR during the afternoon.

VFR conditions will then persist overnight tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday...Mainly VFR. Restrictions possible Wednesday night especially in the western airports after 06z.

Thursday through Saturday...Restrictions possible with showers likely at times.

MARINE

Surface high pressure centered off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon morning will drift further out to sea into tonight. As such, light to modest south/southwesterly winds will prevail through today. Then, southerly flow will strengthen Wednesday ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. While this may produce some modest chop on area lakes, conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory levels.

CLIMATE

Unusually warm weather across western and north-central New York is expected this afternoon and Wednesday. Forecast temperatures are expected to be around 20 degrees above normal for part of the first week of November. Here is a list of record high temperatures, record high minimum temperatures, and normals for the next few days.

Record High Temperatures(F)

Buffalo Rochester Watertown

Tuesday, November 3 80(1961) 75(1938) 74(1961) Normal 53 54 52

Wednesday, November 4 74(2022) 78(2015) 73(2015) Normal 52 54 51

Record High Minimum Temperatures(F)

Buffalo Rochester Watertown

Tuesday, November 3 58(1938) 58(1975) 57(1961) Normal 38 38 34

Wednesday, November 4 57(1935) 58(1987) 56(1987) Normal 38 38 33

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NY...None. MARINE...None.