textproduct: Buffalo

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes have been made with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A soaking rainfall continues this morning.

2) Pattern becomes cool through late week and active through at least the weekend.

3) Frost possible Thursday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A soaking rainfall continues this morning.

A wave of low pressure over the Ohio Valley will ride along a nearly stationary frontal boundary in place across the region this morning. An influx of moisture moving along the front will maintain steady rain across the region this morning. The front and rain will shift east as the wave of low pressure tracks northeast and as a trough pushes into the region. Rain will taper off from west to east with nearly all the rain east of the area by early afternoon. With the front stalled the longest from the Western Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes and to the North Country, these areas will have the greatest rainfall amounts of 1.00-1.50", with some areas close to 2.00" possible. Lower rainfall amounts below 1.00" will be possible for areas of the Niagara Frontier, closer to Lake Ontario. Due to the saturated ground, rainfall amounts may produce areas of ponding or localized flooding in flood prone areas. Rivers and creeks will see rises through Friday, however most are expected to stay well below action stages.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Pattern becomes cool through late week and active through at least the weekend.

Cooler temperatures are expected through the end of the work week and periods of showers will be possible at times through at least the weekend. A large trough will remain over the eastern third of North America with several shortwaves tracking across the region, increasing the potential for showers at times. Temperatures Wednesday through Friday will be well below normal with highs only in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A more significant wave is expected to cross the region Friday night into Saturday morning, with a period of more widespread rain during this time. The passage of a cold front will bring additional showers Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Frost possible Thursday night.

The coldest temperatures within this cooler pattern are expected Thursday night. Overnight low temperatures Thursday night likely drop into the 30s. There is the potential for frost, though this will be highly dependent on the amount of cloud cover in place and the resulting radiational cooling.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

A slow moving front and impulses traveling along this boundary will maintain a light to moderate rainfall across the region this morning. Expect a mixture of IFR-MVFR cigs and vsbys of 3-5SM, with occasionally low vsbys within heavier stratiform rain. The steadier rainfall will taper off to showers by mid-morning, with some measure of activity lingering across the area through the early afternoon hours. That said...we should see a slow but gradual improvement in flight conditions as the front moves off to our east with a return to VFR by this evening.

Tonight...a weak shortwave passing through the area might bring a light passing shower. Otherwise...VFR conditions expected across area terminals overnight.

Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Friday through Saturday...VFR/MVFR with increasing chances for showers or a thunderstorm, especially Saturday.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with chances for showers or a thunderstorm.

MARINE

Quiet conditions are expected on the lower Great Lakes through Wednesday night. Southwest winds will freshen Thursday and Friday, creating choppy conditions. At this time, conditions look under small craft thresholds.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NY...None. MARINE...None.