textproduct: Buffalo

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Only minor changes to the forecast with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and a few thunderstorms possible through the weekend, especially east of Lake Ontario today.

2) A soaking rainfall arrives Monday, then drier weather returns Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and a few thunderstorms possible through the weekend, especially east of Lake Ontario today.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible through the rest of the weekend, especially east of Lake Ontario closer to the influence of the departing low today. Otherwise...much of the time will be precipitation free for most locations with a mix of clouds and sunshine. Less windy conditions expected this afternoon but still on the breezy side with occasional gusts up to 25 mph. Temps will be a bit below normal with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Key Message 2...A soaking rainfall arrives Monday, then drier weather returns Tuesday.

A vigorous shortwave within the broad upper trough is advertised to track east into the Ohio Valley Sunday night with its precipitation shield arriving across WNY early Monday morning. That said...there still remains some uncertainty to where the H850 thermal boundary will become establish across the region and then placement of the heaviest precipitation. With this update...guidance suggests that the highest probabilities of seeing north of 0.75 of an inch will reside from the I-90 south to the NY/PA line. Some locations (S. Tier) could even see precip amounts well north of an inch (1.0-1.5") before winding down Monday evening. Again...this will all depend on the track of the surface low and subsequent location of the west to east oriented warm frontal boundary. Eitherway...will need to monitor it for the potential for heavy rainfall.

With the departure of the surface low drier weather will return Tuesday as high pressure build in across the Lower Lakes. Although, an isolated showers still can't be ruled out across the North Country Tuesday afternoon. Unsettled weather returns Thursday and Friday with chances for showers and Thunderstorms.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Mostly VFR conditions will prevail across the region this afternoon. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible across southwestern NY and the North Country this afternoon. A brief period of MVFR/IFR is possible in any heavy showers or thunderstorms. Mostly dry weather is expected in between these two areas.

An area of showers and lowering ceilings are expected to move across western NY tonight. MVFR ceilings are expected with IFR across the higher terrain including KJHW. Conditions will improve from north to south late tonight through Sunday morning. MVFR ceilings will linger across the western Southern Tier.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR, rain developing overnight with MVFR/IFR late.

Monday...MVFR/IFR with rain likely. Chance of a few thunderstorms.

Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.

Thursday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE

Westerly winds will continue to produce choppy conditions across the shoreline of Lake Ontario this afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through this evening. Winds will diminish across the Lakes tonight. Westerly winds increase Sunday, however only a light chop is expected on the Lakes.

An easterly flow will increase across the Lakes late Sunday night through Monday as low pressure approaches from the Ohio Valley.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NY...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for NYZ003>007. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LOZ042. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for LOZ043>045.