textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 156 AM EST Friday...

No significant changes with this forecast. We'll be in an active pattern through the weekend but significant impacts are not anticipated at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 156 AM EST Friday...

1. Light snow possible with near normal temperatures today.

2. Windy with rain and snow showers late Friday night into Saturday with a strong cold frontal passage.

3. Turning sharply colder early next week with more widespread snow showers Saturday night and Sunday.

4. During the total lunar eclipse Tuesday morning, sky cover is somewhat uncertain at this time, with some high altitude clouds possible.

5. Two potential winter storms are being monitored for the first week of March, although storm track and related precipitation types are uncertain. Light snow is currently favored late Tuesday into Wednesday, and greater chances for a wintry mix and rain exists in the Thursday to Friday timeframe.

DISCUSSION

As of 156 AM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A weak warm front will lift across our region this morning. Snow showers associated with this front can already be seen across eastern Ontario; they will gradually spread eastward and along both sides of the international border this morning into the early afternoon. However, with meager moisture and the best forcing to remain on the other side of the border, expect overall coverage to wane as precipitation moves eastward. Showers will be isolated in nature and focus mainly in northern areas, with precipitation type mostly snow, though can't rule out some sprinkles mixed in here and there. Regardless, any accumulation will be minimal. Otherwise, expect variable cloudiness today with temperatures warming into the low to mid 30s on south to southwest winds.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Low pressure will lift well north of our region tonight and then move east on Saturday, dragging a cold front along in its wake. Warm air advection will continue overnight as a potent 60+ kt 850 mb jet proceeds the incoming cold front. Hence expect temperatures will fall early this evening, then hold steady or even rise overnight, especially along the northern slopes of the Adirondacks and into the Champlain Valley due to downsloping and funneling of the south/southwest winds. Temperatures will likely be in the mid to upper 30s from the Champlain Valley westward by daybreak Saturday. Showers will develop along/ahead of the front as it moves through from west to east during the daylight hours Saturday, so many areas will actually start out as rain or a rain/snow mix. Temperatures will continue to warm in eastern and southern areas ahead of the front during the day, and expect these locations will be able to warm well into the 40s, with some Lower Connecticut Valley towns possibly approaching 50F. Further north, daytime highs will be early in the day with temperatures falling through the afternoon. Showers will be most extensive across the northern high terrain, with just isolated or widely scattered activity in central and southern portions of our forecast area. The better forcing/instability will lag behind the main precipitation, so expect only light rain and/or snow amounts.

The aforementioned strong jet will also serve to bring gusty winds to our area late tonight through Saturday morning. There's some uncertainty how much of this jet will be able to mix to the surface, particularly before sunrise and increasing daytime mixing. Still, with the favored south/southwest direction, gusts of 25 to 35 mph will be possible, with the highest gusts along the northern slopes of the Adirondacks/Greens and the northern Champlain Valley. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few locally higher reports of gusts approaching 40 mph. Winds peak Saturday morning, then gradually subside as the front moves through, though they will remain breezy from the west. Don't anticipate any wind headlines at this point, but subsequent shifts will need to monitor trends closely going forward, especially now that we're within the hi-res models' timeframe.

KEY MESSAGE 3: The cold front makes its exit to our southeast Saturday evening, followed by a secondary front/surface trough Saturday night. A wave of low pressure will traverse along this secondary boundary during the overnight hours and into Sunday, bringing a swath of light snow or snow showers as it does so. The best moisture and forcing will be across central/southern New England, so anticipate much of the precipitation will be over central/southern VT, with amounts decreasing as one heads north toward Canada. Regardless, this will be a quick hitting system and snow amounts will only be around an inch at most, with a vast majority of the region only seeing a dusting or perhaps up to half an inch. Sunday will be much colder after Saturday's cold frontal passage; highs will only be in the teens and 20s. This cold will persist right through Monday. The day will start out with temperatures below zero for a vast majority of Vermont and northern New York, and anticipate highs will struggle to exceed 20F on Monday, in spite of ample sunshine.

KEY MESSAGE 4: Between 6 and 6:30 AM Tuesday, a total lunar eclipse, or "Blood Moon" will likely be visible across the area. The easy part of the forecast is that it will be seasonably cold and dry. But will skies be clear? As high pressure moves to the southeast overnight, some high clouds well out ahead of a frontal system to our northwest may spill into the region. Therefore, the deterministic sky cover forecast currently doesn't look representative of what actual sky cover will probably look like; as an example, across the region the Northeast Kingdom substantially lowest sky cover than areas to the west/south, but it does not seem obviously clearer there than in central/southern portions of Vermont. By Sunday night into Monday as this system develops over western provinces of Canada, it should become more clear how the cloudiness will play out for our area.

KEY MESSAGE 5: Large model variations continue with regards to a pair of southern stream low pressure systems expected to move across the country next week. The first one looks like a weak low pressure system with modest QPF, but it does have a decent chance of producing a few inches of snow Tuesday night based on the latest model consensus, in which probabilities of snowfall exceeding 2 inches is about 20-40%, with highest chances over central and southern portions of Vermont and eastern Adirondacks. Recent model cycles have generally pretty stable, but the degree of cold air will depend on amount of phasing with northern stream energy. Temperatures could be only marginally cold for snow.

By comparison, the second system looks potentially stronger and more impactful. However it is more uncertain, including with timing of precipitation, as the amplitude of ridging out ahead of it will control both how quickly precipitation returns and how cold the air is across the region. Ensemble membership strongly favors mainly rain with this late week storm, although there is certainly a chance that polar high pressure builds southward in time to provide an overrunning wintry mix scenario. Precipitation could be rather heavy as the system will likely tap into rich moisture out of the Gulf. That being said, the storm track is so uncertain that it is too early to provide any potential impacts. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions are favored for the next several hours. A weak boundary and light snow showers stretches from Lake Ontario east towards the Green Mountains. The Ogdensburg airport has occasionally noted precipitation, but never anything below 6SM. Noted PROB30s for KSLK, KBTV, and KEFK for 6SM in light snow, in case any activity can overcome the dry air near the surface. A patchy cloud deck at 4000-7000 ft agl is being noted across the region, and after 00z, skies will trend clear. The main concern will be steadily climbing south to southwest winds to 2000 ft agl that peaks around 45-55 knots from about 06z-16z. Surface south winds will also increase to 8-15 knots with gusts 17-25 knots, but not fast enough that left in a mention of LLWS for every terminal. Winds peak about 10z-16z, and KBTV is likely to see gusts around 30 knots in that interval. A thin strip of rain or snow showers will shift east, but it may be virga across several locations, and so represented this precipitation with PROB30s.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SN. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

EQUIPMENT

The KMPV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of return to service. This communications line is not serviced by the NWS. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue, but amendments to those forecasts will be suspended.

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.