textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 311 AM EDT Friday...

No changes to the current forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 311 AM EDT Friday...

1. Dry, clear, and seasonably cool weather will lead to pleasant, fall-like, conditions today and most of tomorrow. Light shower chances will approach southern Vermont late Saturday, with a weak frontal passage across the north and central portions of the area Sunday.

2. Patchy frost possible on Tuesday morning, followed by warmer and unsettled weather for mid to late next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 311 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A picture perfect start the weekend looks to be in store beginning today through Saturday. Temperatures will trend slightly below seasonable levels today as northwest flow advects cooler air from Canada. Highs will be in the mid 60s to near 70 with clear skies. A few light breezes near the International Border, and Champlain Valley, to 10-15 MPH could bring a slight bite to the air Friday afternoon. Clear skies will persist through tonight with areawide strong radiational cooling. Temperatures will cool into the low to mid 40s for most locations, and near 50 for areas around Lake Champlain. Raw guidance denotes low to mid 30s for areas in the heart of the Adirondacks. Tonight looks like the better night for patchy valley fog in the favored river valleys of Vermont and northern New York. Though it will not be widespread fog with it being 2 days detached from rain. Nonetheless, areas near Montpelier, the lamoille Valley, CT river, and sheltered areas of the Adirondacks have a good chance for patchy fog. Saturday looks to be a repeat of Friday with slightly warmer highs into the mid to upper 40s with mostly clear skies. Gusty channeled winds in the Champlain Valley, and mountain summit winds, will be possible by Saturday afternoon with winds turning more southerly, hence our warmer temperature advection. Winds could gusts up to 25 MPH will be possible, with locally higher on Lake Champlain itself. A Lake Wind Advisory may be needed during the day Saturday through Saturday evening.

Saturday looks to remain dry up until the late evening. A weak shortwave looks to pass just to our south, brining some light shower chances to southern Vermont, mainly along or south of US-4. Showers will be confined to the overnight hours, shifting east by sunrise. Overnight lows Saturday will be mild as a result into the upper 50s to low 60s. Clouds associated with the showers will build across the region keeping the area socked in with cloud cover on Sunday. A frontal passage will bring additional shower chances to the central and northern portions of the areas. Showers will be scattery and broken in nature. Model soundings do show the potential for some isolated rumbles of thunder, mainly across northern New York, but any storms will be weak with limited instability, and lagging dynamics. Temperatures will return to seasonably cool level in the 60s by Monday, with drying conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A fast/progressive flow aloft prevails acrs the northern CONUS for next week as our cwa remains in the battle ground btwn very warm/moist airmass over the Ohio/Mississippi Valleys and much cooler/drier air to the north over central Canada. As boundary sharpens acrs the Mid Atlantic/NE CONUS for mid to late next week, potential for widespread precipitation increases for our region. Still a large spread in potential solutions from the globe guidance and associated ensemble members on placement and timing of heaviest precip, given fast flow aloft and some agreement of boundary paralleling the mid/upper lvl winds.

Progged 1025mb high pres directly overhead on Tues morning wl produce light winds and clear skies with valley fog and pockets of patchy frost possible. Lows range from near freezing SLK/NEK to upper 40s near Lake Champlain. First weak boundary and associated s/w energy drops acrs our cwa late Tues into Weds with ribbon of enhanced mid lvl moisture, but limited instability. Expect a brief period of rain showers with latest WPC still indicating chc-likely (40 to 70%) pops. Also, progged 850mb winds of 30 to 40 knots are expected acrs our cwa ahead of approaching boundary on Tues, so anticipated breezy south to southwest winds, especially central/northern CPV and higher trrn of dacks/northern Greens. Temps wl warm into the mid 70s to lower 80s per latest WPC fcst. Temps wl be highly depend upon what side of the boundary our cwa wl be on for mid to late week, along with areas of clouds/precip. WPC has highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s with lows mid 40s to mid 50s for Weds thru Friday, which looks reasonable attm.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions will prevail at our taf sites for the next 12 to 18 hours, with a low probability (<10%) of localized fog/br at MPV/SLK toward sunrise this morning. Current analysis places 1018mb low pres near Flint MI with cyclonic northwest flow and mid level clouds across our taf sites. Clearing is approaching the International Border and should be across our region by sunrise, which could result in some very localized patchy fog/br near SLK/MPV. Otherwise, VFR with mostly clear skies prevails today with northwest winds 4 to 8 knots, except a few gusts 12 to 18 knots near MPV.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.