textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 212 AM EDT Wednesday...

No significant changes have been made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 212 AM EDT Wednesday...

1. Tranquil weather will continue across the region today, with showers and some thunderstorms likely Thursday afternoon and evening as a cold front moves through the region.

2. Seasonably warm and dry heading into the weekend. Shower chances return to start next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 212 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Other than some overnight fog in some of the more favored locations, tranquil weather is expected to prevail across the region today. High temperatures will climb into the 80s areawide this afternoon, with plenty of sunshine expected throughout the day.

The period of active weather continues to be Thursday afternoon and evening as showers and thunderstorms develop across the region as a cold front moves through the region. SPC has placed the northern portion of the region in a Marginal Risk for severe weather, meaning isolated severe storms are possible. The most favorable conditions for any thunderstorm develop look to be along the International Border, where more favorable instability and shear are expected. Some of the latest CAM guidance shows about 1000 to 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE across the region. Model soundings show the potential for some heavy rainfall with any storms that do develop, with warm cloud depths over 10kft and favorable CAPE profiles, however it looks to be a fairly narrow band of anomalously deep moisture and things should be moving enough to limit impacts. The cold front looks to shift southward overnight Thursday into Friday, with drier conditions expected across the region by the afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Behind a cold front on Friday, drier air aloft will advect from the northwest lending to a comfortable, seasonably warm weekend. Saturday will be the pick of the weekend with cooler temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s and lower dewpoints in the low 50s. A brisk north wind to around 10-20 MPH will bring a slight bite to the air Saturday afternoon, especially in the Champlain Valley. By Sunday, temperatures start to rebound back to the mid to upper 80s, with a positively tilted long wave trough digging into the Mid-Atlantic. A cutoff low will dive south from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic Sunday as ridging slides south from Canada. Dry air in the mid to upper levels should shunt much of the precipitation to our south, but some shower activity in southern Vermont along the northern periphery of the system, due to advective southerly flow, cannot be ruled out. Models then become spread on a system heading into next week. A weak cold front is expected to slide south early next week as surface high pressure somewhat breaks down over southern New England. Model timing remains large with the GFS ensembles depicting a more delayed frontal passage closer to Tuesday into Wednesday due to a more persistent ridge and dry air keeping the front at bay. The Euro ensembles are a bit faster with a Monday into Tuesday frontal passage with a faster ridge departure. Depending on the timing of the front, instability for stronger storms could be possible as the front will coincide with a strengthening jet streak and associated LLJ, in addition to decent frontogenesis in the low to mid levels. Regardless of timing, high temperatures and dewpoints look unlikely early next week as the front will help to reduce any threat of extreme heat or humidity. Furthermore, precipitation chances Monday through Wednesday are trending up along the International Border, though the southward extent of any shower activity as the front sags south, remains uncertain with dry air in place. Notably cooler and drier air looks to follow behind the front into mid to late next week.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 12Z Thursday...Fog in the vicinity of MPV/RUT is expected to lift and dissipate by 13Z. VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the daylight hours today with light west southwest winds under 10 knots. Light channeled flow in the St. Lawrence Valley could lead to occasional gusts at MSS to 15 knots. Furthermore, a lake breeze is expected at BTV/PBG late this morning into the afternoon, before flow becomes more terrain and channeled driven. Winds will turn more southerly this evening into tonight. Cloud decks will be 4-8kft agl, and mainly terrain driven, turning more clear than cloudy overnight. With any clearing tonight, some fog may be possible at MPV, but due to a detachment from rain, and some uncertainty with how much clearing there is tonight, have left any visibility reduction trends out of this TAF package.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.