textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 1004 AM EDT Tuesday...

Tweaked our daytime forecast PoPs, temperature and sky cover to match observations. Rain has been quite steady over much of Windsor County and southern Rutland County this morning, while skies are quickly clearing to the north. These trends will continue into early afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 220 AM EDT Tuesday...

1. Light rain showers will continue across southern Vermont today. Otherwise, tranquil weather and seasonable temperatures will persist through the middle of the week.

2. Showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday afternoon into Friday as a cold front moves through the region.

3. Seasonably warm and dry heading into the weekend. Shower chances return to start next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 220 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Low pressure passing well to our south will continue to bring some shower chances to the region throughout the day today, particularly across southern Vermont. Total rainfall amounts across southern Vermont generally look to be between 0.25 and 0.5 inches of precipitation, with a sharp gradient moving north towards central Vermont where chances of measurable rainfall are low. Some of the latest CAM guidance shows a few showers popping up across the Adirondacks and northern New York this afternoon, so did increase precipitation chances slightly from the NBM. Skies look to trend clearer as the day progresses, continuing into the overnight hours allowing for patchy valley fog to develop. Outside of these shower chances, tranquil weather and seasonable temperatures are expected to persist across the region today through Thursday morning. Temperatures today will generally be in the 70s to lower 80s, with the coolest temperatures across southern Vermont due to the shower activity and cloud cover. Temperatures will be several degrees warmer tomorrow, with highs climbing into the 80s to near 90 towards the afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2: After a brief period of quiet conditions, more active weather is expected to arrive Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. Thursday current looks to be the warmest day of the week, with temperatures climbing into the 80s and low 90s. The environment Thursday afternoon and evening is supportive for some scattered thunderstorms, with the potential for a few strong thunderstorms. A decent axis of instability looks to move into the region, adding in the convective potential Thursday. Some of the CAPE profiles do support heavy rainfall, so this threat will need to be monitored as we get closer. Shower chances will continue into Friday as the cold front moves through the region, with showers and thunderstorms pushing through. As usual, trends will need to be monitored as we get closer, especially as we get into the time frame for more high- res guidance.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Behind a cold front on Friday, drier air aloft will advect from the northwest lending to a comfortable, seasonably warm weekend. Saturday will be the pick of the weekend with cooler temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s and lower dewpoints in the low 50s. By Sunday, temperatures start to rebound back to the mid to upper 80s, with a positively tilted long wave trough digging into the Mid-Atlantic. A cutoff low will dive south from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic Sunday. Dry air in the mid to upper levels should shunt much of the precipitation to our south, but some shower activity in southern Vermont along the northern periphery of the system cannot be ruled out. Models then become spread on a system heading into next week. Spread in how the Mid-Atlantic system evolves Monday are effecting the progression of a shortwave moving out of northern Ontario Monday into Tuesday. The GFS depicts a drier system with more detachment from moisture due to the presence of the Mid-Atlantic system blocking southerly moisture advection. The Euro ensembles show the Mid-Atlantic system continuing to dive southeast out to sea, allowing for a bit more moisture recovery, and a more defined frontal system sweeping across the North Country. Regardless, precipitation chances Monday into Tuesday are trending up along the International Border, though the southward extent of any shower activity remains uncertain.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 12Z Wednesday...Outside of RUT this morning, all sites should see VFR conditions prevail through the daytime hours. Light rain and lower ceilings at RUT could trend conditions towards intermittent MVFR ceilings through 16Z. Winds today will be variable and light (under 10 knots). A lake breeze is expected at BTV/PBG this afternoon with winds becoming light southwesterly and southeasterly, respectively, after 16Z. Skies will trend towards mostly sunny by later this afternoon, with some clearing skies overnight. Depending on how clear tonight becomes, radiational cooling may take effect. HREF sky depictions denote clearing and potentially some fog development in the sheltered climatologically favored locations of SLK/MPV/EFK. Model soundings show some drying and cooling aloft which may help to set up an inversion in the higher terrain. Confidence of any IFR reductions is low for this TAF package, but have tried to show a trend for possible lower vsbys and ceilings for tonight. Most likely timeframe for any fog would be after 07/08Z.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.