textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 210 AM EDT Wednesday...

No significant changes have been made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 210 AM EDT Wednesday...

1. High pressure across the region will continue to bring dry and present weather through the day today. Shower and thunderstorm chances return for the latter half of the week.

2. Bermuda High will gradually give way over the new week

DISCUSSION

As of 210 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Another pleasant day is expected across the region today as high pressure continues to bring a period of drier weather. High temperatures will be a few degrees warmer today under light southerly flow with daytime highs climbing into the 80s areawide.

Heading into the latter half of the week, warm and unsettled weather is expected as the region remains sandwiched between high pressure to the south and an upper level trough to the north, with zonal flow bringing several different disturbances to the region. With broad southwesterly flow ushering in plenty of moisture, chances for showers and thunderstorms will be possible. While there doesn't look to be any real defined boundary to help drive shower activity, the shortwave activity Thursday and Friday may provide enough energy to drive afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances. If ingredients align, there could be the potential for some stronger thunderstorms both afternoons, but generally more garden-variety thunderstorms can be expected. Shower activity is expected to wane towards the evenings with loss of diurnal heating. High temperatures Thursday will rise into the mid to upper 80s with dewpoints around 70 degrees, resulting in heat indices in the upper 80s to around 90.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A Bermuda High will be remain in place Sunday through Tuesday, which will keep warm, moist flow progressing into the region while various systems travel west-to-east in quick zonal flow aloft. A more appreciable trough will drive southeastwards on Tuesday, and that will break down the Bermuda High and shunt the plume of moisture south and east of our region. Some forecast guidance still suggests there's a pocket of dry air in there somewhere between systems on Sunday, but the timing of this still remains a little uncertain. Any potential for stronger storms will depend on the time of day that these periodic 700mb troughs push east. If they are timed during peak heating, the warm, moist environment and gradually increasing shear suggests the ingredients could briefly materialize. Some of the experimental machine learning ensembles have some low end probabilities, but a greater focus south. So will keep an eye out, but any potential for stronger storms will be contingent on the timing of synoptic forcing. After Tuesday, we'll be under the influence of a broad upper low, bringing temperatures near to just below normal. However, there's still several embedded systems. So showers could remain in the forecast mid to late next week, but thunderstorm chances will minimize.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 12Z Thursday...Fog is expected to thin, with VFR conditions and southwest winds 4-8 knots developing about 13-15z, except at 7-10 knot lake breeze at KPBG. A few fair weather cumulus clouds are possible, and some high clouds will start moving in from the south late in the day or beyond 00z Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. Scattered SHRA, Isolated TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Isolated SHRA, Isolated TSRA. Friday: VFR. Scattered SHRA, Isolated TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.