textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 214 AM EDT Monday...

No significant changes have been made at this time. Rainfall is on track to end during the pre-dawn hours with quieter weather expected through Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 214 AM EDT Monday...

1. Flood watch remains in effect through 8 AM this morning.

2. Cooler and drier weather to start the week followed by unsettled weather Wednesday through the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 214 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: We continue to see widespread rainfall across Vermont this morning with the main focus on heavier rainfall being across Rutland Windsor Counties. There is one flash flood warning in effect for Rutland County where over 2.5 inches of rain was observed within 2 hours. There was one strong thunderstorm that dropped 2 inches in one hour followed by some steadier moderate rainfall. It's still raining in the area where the warning is in effect and we could still see another half into to an inch of rainfall. This one storm was an outlier and likely interacted with a pocket of instability that had yet to be tapped into. Rainfall right now is largely stratiform with limited convective components which will limit the flash flood threat given rainfall rates between 0.5" and 0.75" per hour. We will likely cancel the watch ahead of the 8 AM expiration time as rainfall will likely have moved east by that point.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Following the passage of the cold front this morning, we will be under the influence of an upper level trough once again. A return to more seasonal temperatures with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s is forecast through the upcoming weekend with lows in the 50s and 60s. Broad cyclonic flow could yield some isolated to scattered diurnal shower chances today and Tuesday but nothing significant of note. On Wednesday, an upper level trough with a weak reflection in the MSLP fields will yield widespread showers across New York but lower chances across Vermont with greater instability present across northern New York.

Widespread rainfall is expected on Thursday from a quick hitting lower pressure system that will race through the St. Lawrence Valley. This has all the makings of a winter-like Colorado low racing through the central US into Canada. An impressive plume of 1.75" PWAT values will advect into the North Country and northern New York and produce some periods of moderate to heavy rainfall on Thursday. Luckily, a strong jet streak within the synoptic trough will force this system to push through the region quickly which will likely preclude any hydrological issues. The potential for strong to severe storms also seems quite low as rainfall is expected to move in close to sunrise.

Unsettled weather will continue Friday and into the weekend as the upper level trough builds southward as several shortwaves help amplify the trough amplitude. Several rounds of showers, especially during the afternoon hours, are possible Friday, Saturday, and Sunday with steep low level lapse rates due to a pocket of colder air aloft.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 06Z Tuesday...Mainly MVFR flight conditions are expected through the next couple of hours due to a combination of moderate rain across Vermont and low ceilings ahead of a cold front. Intervals of VFR conditions have been occurring even within the rain, with ceilings and visibilities bouncing at all terminals. Improvement to VFR is largely occurring from west to east as drier air filters in. The only site expected to see IFR conditions through the period is SLK, although confidence in prevailing IFR is only moderate given recent observations. Still, think low ceilings with at least temporary IFR conditions at times through 12Z at SLK can be expected with moist conditions and subsidence bringing cloud bases back down until the clouds are gradually mixed out during the morning after sunrise. Winds will trend breezy out of the west after 12Z, with some gusts 15 to 20 knots likely.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Definite SHRA, Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT this morning for VTZ002>010-016>018. NY...None.