textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 229 AM EDT Tuesday...

Snow totals for today were adjusted slightly. Confidence of heightened fire weather concerns for mid week has increased.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 229 AM EDT Tuesday...

1. Widespread snow showers expected this morning into the early afternoon, with snow accumulations mainly 1 to 2 inches.

2. Warmer and drier conditions prevail for mid week, with increasing fire weather concerns, especially on Thursday.

3. After a frontal boundary brings late week precipitation chances, seasonable and mostly dry weather is expected for the weekend. Additional chances for rainfall are expected heading into early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 229 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Another round of snow showers is expected today as a weak clipper system crosses the region. This feature is currently moving through the northern Great Lakes early this morning, and it should continue to slide eastward along/just north of Lake Ontario and then overhead before moving offshore late today. Moisture is fairly meager with this system, and even at this stage, model guidance is having a hard time agreeing just how extensive shower coverage is going to be, and whether the most prevalent activity will favor the northern half or the southern half of our forecast area. Radar presentation isn't overly impressive with the system at this point, consisting mainly of a single north-south oriented area of showers (associated with the cold front/surface trough) followed by more scattered activity in the cold air advection behind the system. That being said, overall thought is we'll see scattered to numerous showers through the morning into the early afternoon as cold air advection and a bit of daytime heating help to steepen lapse rates. The system's forward motion is fairly quick, and showers will end by mid/late afternoon once the center is to our east. This with the lack of significant moisture will help to limit overall snowfall amounts. However, there could be some briefly heavy snow in more robust showers, with rates of 0.50 in/hr or more possible at times. So some quick accumulation will be possible, though it's uncertain how long any accumulation would linger before melting, especially on paved surfaces. Temperatures are mainly going to be in the upper 20s to mid/upper 30s, so precipitation should fall mainly as snow, even in warmer temperatures due to wet-bulbing. With all this mind, still expect most areas will only see an inch or two of accumulation, particularly on grassy or raised surfaces. Some locales in the higher elevations could see upwards of 3 inches, especially if multiple heavier showers move through. Travel could be a bit tricky at times as any heavier showers reduce visibility and produce a quick accumulation on roadways, so motorists are urged to use caution and remain alert for rapidly changing conditions.

Once the system exits this afternoon, we'll see a reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air with ridging following the departing clipper. Skies will clear and winds subside, so expect we'll see decent radiational cooling, especially anywhere that's able to hold onto a bit of fresh snow cover. The result will be a bitterly cold night with temperatures dipping into the teens areawide. A few spots may even get down into the single digits by Wednesday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure will be directly overhead on Wednesday, leading to plentiful sunshine and light winds. After today's chilly weather, we'll warm back up to near seasonal normal with highs expected to be in the 40s areawide. We should have optimal mixing, so dewpoints will be low, down into the single digits during the afternoon. As a result, minimum relative humidity levels will also be quite low, 20 to 30 percent.

The high moves off shore on Thursday, and anticipate increasing south/southwest flow on the backside of the ridge. Highs will warm well into the 50s to around 60F, and winds will become breezy. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph are possible, particularly in the Champlain and St Lawrence Valleys. While dewpoints won't be as low as on Wednesday, minimum relative humidities will once again drop to 20 to 35 percent, especially in Vermont. These conditions will create elevated fire weather concerns as these dry and windy conditions will allow any fires that start to rapidly develop and spread.

KEY MESSAGE 3: A frontal boundary draped across the region Friday will bring some chances for rain Friday into early Saturday, although there is still a good amount of uncertainty regarding this feature, especially in regards to exact timing and precipitation amounts, although it looks like fairly light and scattered precipitation can be expected. Once the cold front exits the region, high pressure looks to build in for the remainder of the weekend, bringing seasonably warm and dry weather. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday look to climb into the 50s and 60s respectively. Another system will arrive early next week, bringing more widespread rainfall to the region. The latest NBM continues to show temperatures climbing into the 60s to lower 70s early next week under southerly flow, but these temperature trends will need to be monitored as we get closer, especially if widespread rain is expected throughout the day.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 06Z Wednesday...Conditions will remain mainly VFR through the forecast period with a few snow showers remaining possible through the overnight hours. Should a stray shower move directly over a terminal, MVFR conditions would be possible. About 09z-12z, a weak area of low pressure will approach the Adirondacks, which will bring ceilings back down and will likely bring snow back into the area, especially south. Showers become more widespread as the next wave moves through the region. MVFR conditions will be possible through 20Z during showers with some chances of IFR in heavier elements. Kept conditions MVFR in this time period mainly with CIGs however. By 22Z, showers will be diminishing as the primary trough exits the region.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

EQUIPMENT

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.