textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 206 AM EST Wednesday...

The Winter Weather Advisory has been cancelled across the North Country.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 206 AM EST Wednesday...

1. Light snow showers will redevelop this afternoon and evening, especially across the mountains.

2. Dry and seasonable conditions to end the work week.

3. Temperatures will warm to above normal next week for the first time this month.

DISCUSSION

As of 206 AM EST Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Best dynamics associated with the Alberta Clipper have exited east of VT early this morning, with mid-level dry slot currently in place. In terms of observed snowfall, did see 2-4" of snowfall in most locations yesterday afternoon/evening (see Public Information Statement for latest reports), but with synoptic system exiting, have cancelled the Winter Weather Advisories as of 2am. Not expecting much additional precipitation this morning, with just a 20- 30% chance of some very fine snowflakes or patchy freezing drizzle (with absence of cloud ice) through noon or so. We still have the closed 850-500mb low across central Quebec. This feature is expected to deepen over the next 24 hours, with an increase in moist cyclonic flow into nrn NY and VT this afternoon and evening. This should result in some reinvigoration of snow shower activity across nrn areas and especially with orographic ascent in the the nrn Adirondacks and nrn Greens. Have indicated an additional dusting to 2" inches of snow accumulation this afternoon and tonight across roughly the northern half of the CWA. Should see some locally higher totals of 2-4" across the higher summits from Camel's Hump nwd to Jay Peak, and possibly along the nrn slopes of the Adirondacks. Looking at generally dry snow with SLRs in the 18:1 to 20:1 range. With the additional light snow accumulations, some renewed minor road impacts are possible this afternoon and evening. However, with snowfall rates expected to be lower, road impacts should not be as significant as what occurred during Tuesday evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure building ewd from the Great Lakes will allow orographic snow shower activity to wind down early Thursday morning. Daytime temperatures on Thursday will reach the mid to upper 20s in valley locations with skies trending partly to mostly sunny by afternoon. After a chilly start Friday morning (lows generally in the single digits), temperatures will generally rebound into the 25-30F range for afternoon highs. Fair and quiet weather conditions are anticipated with a surface ridge cresting over our region.

KEY MESSAGE 3: After a long stretch of below freezing temperatures (see Climate section for more details...), a pattern shift is in store for next week. Subtle warm air advection will bring highs to near freezing this weekend, then waa will increase in intensity Monday onward. The model trend has been to generally delay the arrival of the warmest air, and the temperature forecast for Sunday has consequently been lowered slightly. However, we are still forecasting a high of 32 for Burlington on Sunday. Temperatures will rise into the upper 30s Monday onward, and reach around 40 by midweek. Normal highs this time of year are right around freezing, so this swing in temperatures will take us above seasonable normals for the first time this month.

We've also been closely watching a coastal low that will develop late Sunday into Monday off the Mid Atlantic Coast. Whereas before it was looking like this system could bring us some impactful precipitation, models have trended away from this solution and now overwhelmingly keep the system shunted to our south. We still can't rule out any impacts all together, but impacts to our forecast area are looking less and less likely. The PoP forecast for early next week has thus been lowered to reflect this trend, though some slight chance PoPs do remain for Sunday night through Monday night.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 12Z Thursday...After a few hour break from snowfall with a dry slot moving through, steadier snow showers are redeveloping amid westerly flow. As flow becomes more northwesterly today, snow showers and reduced visibilities will become anchored over the northwestern Adirondacks and over northwestern Vermont, including the northern Champlain Valley. Forecast soundings are showing the snow growth zone has saturated, so despite some observed pockets of freezing drizzle this morning, the threat for any additional freezing drizzle is over.

Most TAF sites will see predominantly MVFR/VFR ceilings continue over the next 24 hours, although KSLK will see some continued IFR ceilings lingering through 13-14Z. Visibilities will generally be in the MVFR range through much of the afternoon today due to the snow, though some variability in visibilities is expected.

Light west winds this morning will become northwesterly around 5-10 knots this afternoon, except locally up to 15 knots over the Champlain Valley near the Lake.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

CLIMATE

As of 206 AM EST Wednesday...

In Burlington, the last day with a temperature breaking 32 degrees was January 22nd. The next time we are forecasting temperatures rising above 32 in Burlington is next Monday, February 16th. If that forecast holds, that would be 24 days in a row below freezing. Sub-freezing temperature streaks this long are fairly unusual in the Burlington area, last happening January-February 2015.

EQUIPMENT

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.