textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 129 PM EST Monday...

Snow showers are expected across the western slopes of the Green and Adirondack Mountains tonight with minor accumulations expected.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 129 PM EST Monday...

1. Upslope snow showers expected tonight with below normal temperatures continuing through Wednesday morning.

2. A clipper system will bring widespread light snow to the region on Wednesday.

3. Potential for a warm, spring day on Saturday, followed by the return more winter-like temperatures Saturday night into early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 129 PM EST Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: We will continue to see some snow showers associated with the Nor'easter off the New England coastline across far southern Vermont through 4-5 PM before the snow exits to the east. A brief in snowfall across the North Country is expected this evening before a combination of a low-amplitude shortwave trough, steepening low level lapse rates, and convergent northwesterly flow help to maximize snowfall processes although moisture will become increasingly limited. This should yield up to 2 inches of snow across the western slopes of the Green and Adirondack Mountains with the possibility of a dusting to a few tenths of an inch away from the higher terrain. Strong cold advection in the wake of the Nor'easter is expected to drop temperatures below zero across northern New York and into the single digits above zero across Vermont. Winds will begin to abate this evening but will still remain in the 5-15 mph range which should yield wind chill values of -10 to -20 across northern New York and between 0 and -10 across Vermont. No headlines are posted for wind chills as values will likely stay just above criteria or may only be reached for an hour at most. Still, a cold Tuesday morning is on tap so be sure to plan accordingly.

Tuesday will be dry with shortwave ridging moving overhead with the possibility of some sunshine before cloud cover begins to build in during the overnight period. The low temperature forecast for Tuesday night/Wednesday morning remains a little uncertain as the timing of high clouds will have a drastic impact on the overnight temperatures. The forecast reflects a later arrival time of the high clouds which will allow temperatures to drop to the single digits above and below zero. However, should clouds arrive faster, lows will likely be in the single digits to lower teens.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A clipper system is expected to bring widespread snowfall to the North Country and northern New York on Wednesday. Models remain in good agreement that a quick hitting system will bring 1-3" of snowfall to the region. Model soundings do show decent omega within the DGZ so it's possible we could see some isolated higher amounts but amounts do look to be sub-advisory level at this time. A 30-35 knot southwesterly oriented low level jet could cut into the snow totals across the Champlain Valley in addition to bringing above freezing temperatures. While the snowfall amounts aren't expected to be impressive, it's likely to impact both the morning and evening commutes.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Model guidance continues to trend towards a non-event for the forecast area Thursday night into Friday with surface high pressure dominating. Could see a few high elevation snow showers Thursday night with the exit of a weak shortwave trough, but the region will largely remain dry through the end of the work week. As the aforementioned surface high moves off the eastern seaboard, an increasing pressure gradient between this feature and a potent shortwave trough and deepening surface low moving east across the southern tip of James Bay will develop strong south-southwesterly flow over our region Saturday allowing surface temps to rise well above normal into the 40s. This will be a nice taste of spring, though brief as Saturday night into Sunday a trailing cold front will bring the return of below normal temps and some scattered snow showers Saturday night into Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR conditions will give way to MVFR for the large majority of the forecast area this evening into the overnight hours. Winds shift to the NNW after a weak frontal passage with ceilings lowering in response, especially along the western slopes of the mountains. Flow will be blocked so MVFR conditions will be possible at KBTV and KRUT as well, with lower chances at KMPV. Light snow showers will be possible at KSLK, generally 02z through 08z, with visibility around 3SM. IFR can't be ruled out during this time, but confidence not enough to warrant mention in the TAF at this point. Winds remain N/NW 5-10 kt overnight with local gusts to near 20 kt, abating gradually through the day Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SN. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR and IFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SN. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SN. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SN. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

EQUIPMENT

The KMPV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of return to service. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue, but amendments to those forecasts will be suspended.

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.