textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 902 AM EDT Sunday...

Minor adjustments to morning temperatures, sky cover, and lake winds were made for today. A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued for the Broad and northern waters of Lake Champlain.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 303 AM EDT Sunday...

1. A chilly morning will be followed by quiet and dry weather through at least mid week.

2. Dry conditions with seasonable temperatures prevail for late this week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 303 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: High pressure of 1035 mb will slide east this morning, keeping the region dry and leading to a cold start to the morning as temperatures hover in the mid 20s to lower 30s over the next several hours. Winds this morning will be south- southwesterly, drawing milder air into the region and helping to rebound our temperatures into the mid and upper 50s this afternoon. Some light breezes around 10-15 mph in the wider valleys will be possible today as well. Tonight through midweek, lows will likely fall into the chilly mid 20s to lower 40s, mainly too dry to see much valley fog. Southwest flow will continue to advect some warmer air in on Monday as highs reach their peak for the week in the low to mid 60s under sunny skies. Large scale upper level ridging upstream Tuesday and Wednesday will bring us seasonable highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s and mainly sunny skies as low humidity and light wind dominates the period. Through midweek, there is high confidence of no precipitation areawide.

KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure both aloft and at the surface wl dominate our weather this week into next weekend. Latest 00z guidance is a little more aggressive with cold air advection on Thurs into Friday, associated with northerly flow on front side of redeveloping high pres from central Canada. The 00z ECMWF shows progged 850mb temps btwn -5C and -7C advecting into our cwa late Thurs into Friday, while ridge axis is re-established over the western Great Lakes. This results in deep closed off cyclonic circulation over eastern New England, which combined with some weak instability/upslope flow may result in a few sprinkles/mtn flurries late this upcoming week. Latest AI runs of the GFS/ECMWF are less aggressive with development of late week trof and associated caa, supporting what is advertised by the WPC forecast. Highs generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s with lows upper 20s to near 40F daily.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 12Z Monday...VFR conditions will prevail at all sites for the next 24 hours, with mid level warm air advection clouds lifting away from our region by 15z this morning. Otherwise, light south/southwest winds will increase at 5 to 15 knots, especially northern NY into Champlain Valley TAF sites today with a few gusts up to 20 knots possible. Winds at 2000 feet agl increase 30 to 40 knots this evening, especially northern NY with areas of wind shear likely at MSS and SLK. However, surface winds will become lighter toward sunset at 5 to 10 knots from the south/southwest.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

MARINE

A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued for the Broad and Northern Waters of Lake Champlain through tonight. Winds at Colchester Reef as of 9 AM were sustained south at 20 to 25 knots with occasional gusts up to 30 knots. Winds at Burton Island as of 9 AM were sustained south at 15 to 20 with occasional gusts to 25 knots. Channeling effects are leading to minor enhancement of winds and waves this morning with forecast waves throughout the day from 1 to 3 feet for the Broad and Northern Waters. Winds may weaken slightly to 15 to 20 knots on the Broad Water during the noontime hours, but gusts are expected to remain near 25 knots and sustained winds are expected to increase again to 20 to 25 knots towards late this afternoon and evening, and continue through tonight.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.