textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 123 PM EST Saturday...

Rain chances and amounts have been cut along the international border for today.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 123 PM EST Saturday...

1. Weather will be steady-state with cool, showery conditions.

2. Remaining unsettled mid week, then trending cooler by next weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 123 PM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: We'll be in a bit of a rinse-repeat pattern through at least Tuesday. Two upper lows will merge early this week, and patches of embedded moisture will result in showery conditions. There will be lulls in activity, though, with the greatest chances of limited shower activity Sunday afternoon and Tuesday morning. During the day on Tuesday, a shortwave ridge will build ahead of an incoming low that will open into a trough as it shifts east- southeast. This will result in flattened 500mb heights with a trend towards decreasing heading into the middle of next week. Forecast high temperatures will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s, and overnight lows will range near 30 to near 40 for the next 3-4 days.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Cyclonic flow centered over eastern Canada will swing a couple shortwaves through northern New York and Vermont next mid week. The first is modeled to swing through on Tuesday night, resulting in chance of precipitation 30-60%, locally 55-85% across the northern Greens. As temperatures fall into the upper 20s to mid 30s, some of the higher elevations could see some snow mixing in with the rain early Wednesday morning. Depending on the strength of high pressure to our south, there's the chance for additional showers during the daytime Wednesday hours as well (15-45% chance), though most spots should see temperatures warm into the 40s and lower 50s that afternoon, resulting in mainly rain. Model consensus really falls apart by Wednesday night, but the main agreements relate to brief weak ridging over the area into Thursday, then a deep trough or closed low developing over the midwest towards Friday. Based on this, chances for precip run 10-40% for the late week accompanied by highs upper 30s to near 50 F and lows in the teens to near 30 F. Models are suggesting a coastal storm could set up next weekend to bring more steady precipitation to the region, but the details are not clear that far out.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 00Z Monday...Low ceilings, rain, and mist will persist overnight, resulting in MVFR, IFR, and LIFR conditions through 14Z Sunday. Highest chance of persistent LIFR ceilings will remain at KMPV, KRUT, and KSLK, where ceilings are observed ceilings are 300 to 400 ft AGL and no improvement is expected until late morning Sunday. Other TAF sites are starting off the TAF period with mainly MVFR ceilings, though lowering of ceilings to IFR with occasional periods of LIFR is expected during the overnight hours. Visibilities will also decrease at times at all TAF sites overnight due to periods of rain and mist, though ceilings will be the main factor driving the lowest flight conditions.

Showers will scatter out and ceilings will slowly lift after 14Z. However, improvement will be slow, especially at higher elevation TAF sites where IFR conditions could persist into the early afternoon. By late afternoon and evening Sunday, ceilings areawide will lift to MVFR/VFR levels.

Winds will remain from the north generally 6-12 knots, with some occasional gusts 15 to 18 knots.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA. Veterans Day: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance RA. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN, Slight chance RA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance RA.

MARINE

Northwest winds are expected to increase overnight, reaching around 15-25 knots for the broad and southern waters of Lake Champlain by about midnight. Winds will begin to subside before sunrise, trending towards 10-20 by morning and continuing into Sunday afternoon. Waves across the broad and southern waters will likely range between 2 to 4 feet overnight into early Sunday morning.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.