textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 204 PM EST Friday...

No significant changes with this forecast. Light snow expected tonight with minor accumulations.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 204 PM EST Friday...

1. A quick shot of light snow tonight into Saturday will bring minimal accumulations of an inch or less.

2. Another round of snow possible Sunday night into Monday, with only minor impacts possible to the Monday morning commute. Any lingering snow Monday afternoon could change over to rain.

3. Difficult travel is possible next week with opportunities for widespread snowfall, with greatest chances for precipitation currently on Wednesday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

As of 204 PM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: After a beautiful sun-filled day today, clouds will increase this evening as a upper shortwave approaches from the northwest. This feature is pretty weak with minimal forcing aside from orographic effects. Moisture is scanty as well. All that points to just light snow developing as the shortwave moves overhead tonight into Saturday. The higher elevations of both the Adirondacks and the Greens have the best chance of seeing any appreciable snow, though still anticipate snowfall totals will range from a few tenths to around an inch, maybe a few spots approaching 2 inches. Elsewhere, any snow will likely be little more than flurries, especially in the Champlain and CT Valleys where any accumulation would just be a dusting. Snow will wind down during the morning hours on Saturday, ending by mid/late afternoon over the northern Greens. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies will dominate with highs in the mid 20s to low 30s. Winds will turn to the west/northwest by the afternoon, mainly 5 to 10 mph with some locally higher gusts.

KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure will bridge across the region on Sunday, with the ridge axis shifting east by Sunday evening. This will make for a pretty nice second half of the weekend, with partly to mostly sunny skies and highs warming into the upper 20s to mid 30s. Then another upper shortwave will slide overhead Sunday night into Monday. This one will have a little more moisture than the previous system, but still not all that robust, with a developing low off the Mid Atlantic coast capturing the deeper moisture. So snow amounts will once again be minimal, an inch or less for most. The precipitation should quickly wind down Monday morning. However, should any precipitation linger into the afternoon, it could well mix with and/or change to rain, especially in the wider valleys, as temperatures will warm into the mid and upper 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 3: A large scale pattern change will lead to areas of low pressure tracking eastward across the United States next week. These systems of Pacific origin, along with a jet stream extending east- northeastward out of the southern Pacific, supports heavier variety of precipitation events. The first of these expected low pressure systems will arrive with a relatively mild antecedent air mass over the area, which leads to questions about precipitation type. with Tuesday still on track to see temperatures reach into the upper 30s to mid 40s across the region. In contrast, temperature trends for Wednesday have markedly cooled from previous forecasts, consistent with about 80% of global ensemble members fitting into model clusters showing a low pressure tracking to our south and low level northerly flow developing as precipitation begins. The shift southward of the storm track and axis of heaviest precipitation supports temperatures low enough to lean towards mainly snow as the precipitation type. At the same time, the National Blend QMD median precipitation amounts have also trended lower. Associated precipitation chances have ticked down a little with a lot of uncertainty remaining given the north-south shifts of the storm track. Note current indications suggest snow with this event would be of a wet, dense character, so this could present slippery travel concerns during commute times.

There is currently better model agreement on an Advisory or greater snowfall with the second of a pair of potential low pressure systems later next week to zip across the country. The second one currently is favored in the Friday timeframe. The National Blend of Models indicates an 20 to 40% chance of snowfall greater than 4" in the Friday to Friday night period. Obviously since this is seven days out in time, expect the forecast to change; however, the signal for a snowstorm is noteworthy. Like the Wednesday system, the median footprint of heaviest precipitation is centered just south of the region but the 90th percentile is rather impressive given higher likelihood of sub-freezing temperatures; amounts in the 0.6" to 1" range over 24 hours.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 00Z Sunday...At this time, all terminals are VFR, but a batch of clouds around 2500 ft agl is lifting northeast across the St. Lawrence Valley and Adirondacks, which will likely result in some MVFR ceilings at KSLK and KMSS. A weak disturbance to our west should reach northern New York about 03z-06z, but snowfall rates are not expected to be very high, and the main push will remain south. Outside of noting a TEMPO for 2SM at KSLK, mainly noted PROB30s with 4-6SM visibility within snow. To our north, a sharp, but moisture starved boundary will drop southeast with isolated to scattered snow showers ahead of it. The timing of snow showers associated with this will mainly be 09z-16z. Some prevailing snow showers will be possible at KSLK, but most areas will have a low chance of some snow showers. Winds will shift around this boundary, with south winds shifting to west-northwest to northwesterly and increase to 6 to 10 knots. MVFR ceilings will likely also be associated with this feature. After it passes, winds will decrease beyond 22z with skies clearing.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Washingtons Birthday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA, Slight chance SN. Tuesday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SN. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SN.

CLIMATE

As of 204 PM EST Friday... In Burlington, the last day with a temperature breaking 32 degrees was January 22nd. The next time we are forecasting temperatures rising above 32 in Burlington is next Monday, February 16th. If that forecast holds, that would be 24 days in a row below freezing. Sub-freezing temperature streaks this long are fairly unusual in the Burlington area, last happening January- February 2015.

EQUIPMENT

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.