textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 243 AM EDT Monday...

No significant changes to the current forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 243 AM EDT Monday...

1. Lingering showers will continue today and Tuesday under broad cyclonic flow, with drier weather returning towards the middle of the week.

2. Showery end to the week before trending drier over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 243 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Slow moving surface and upper level low pressure systems remain over the region, keeping broad cyclonic flow in place. This will lead to continued scattered showers, especially across the higher terrain as the upper level low gradually shifts away from the region. This cyclonic flow will also lead to some lake effect showers off Lake Ontario, with increased shower chances expected across northern New York today and into Tuesday. Temperatures will be on the cool side, with highs only climbing into the 70s, with some locations in the Adirondacks struggling to climb out of the upper 60s. A brief period of ridging will build into the region for Wednesday, bringing some drier weather conditions for the middle of the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2: An upper-level trough builds in on Thursday and Friday, bringing some showers and thunderstorms. A northern- stream surface low should track northeast out of the Great Lakes Region and into Quebec during this time, though its center will pass well too far to the north to have any direct impacts. However, as is typical for incoming upper level lows, a series of surface fronts/troughs should move through Thursday and Thursday night, bringing multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Model guidance has continued to keep any possible secondary low development and most of the tropical moisture out to sea, preventing the heaviest rain from reaching the region. While a couple strong to severe storms could be possible on Thursday, the synoptic setup and ingredients favor another marginal low CAPE/high shear setup, though the exact details will be refined before then. During that period, GEFS/EPS/CMCE combined probabilities of more than a half inch of rain are down below 20 percent, though the convective nature will lead to some locally higher totals. Broad upper level troughing and associated cyclonic flow should remain over the weekend, keeping temperatures on the cooler side, but conditions should remain mostly dry. Highs should be in the 70s with low humidity, while lows should be in the 40s and 50s.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 12Z Tuesday...A mix of flight categories currently exist due to patch fog. The fog will lift by mid-morning and VFR conditions will mostly prevail through the evening. However, isolated showers will pass through during the day and evening, and they could briefly cause MVFR visibility to develop at any given terminal. The highest probability of receiving a shower remains over northern New York, though they cannot be completely ruled out from reaching a Vermont terminal. Some low clouds are likely to return to SLK and MPV tonight, and while stronger flow and more cloud cover should make fog formation more difficult, it is still possible there. Winds will generally be southerly and between 5-10 KT, transitioning to a mix of southerly and terrain driven tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.