textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 225 AM EDT Friday...

No significant changes were made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 231 AM EDT Friday...

1. Another warm and dry day today before temperatures trend cooler during the weekend with showers and embedded thunderstorms expected. Severe chances remain low at this time.

2. Hot and dry weather expected to return.

DISCUSSION

As of 225 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Mid to upper level ridging will begin to breakdown today with developing west to southwest flow aloft helping to shunt the ridge axis south and east. Before any systems cannot move into the region, we will see one more warm and dry day today. A persistence forecast from yesterday is expected with highs at or 1 to 2 degrees warmer than yesterday in the mid to upper 80s. Dewpoints will be in the 40s with good mixing keeping things comfortable today, minimizing the heat risk. Outside of channeled flow in the St. Lawrence Valley, winds today will be light 5-10 mph with a lake breeze on Lake Champlain. Some mid to high clouds will also be present into the afternoon, with increasing cloud cover this evening. Relative humidities will follow yesterdays into the 25 to 35% range.

Shower chances associated will increase tonight as a long wave trough with embedded shortwaves swings through Quebec into the weekend. An initial shortwave will focus precipitation over northern New York and International Border regions Friday night into Saturday morning. Strong moisture advection via a jet stream connection to the Gulf with surge Pwats to 1.5 to 1.75 inches across the entire region. Given the high precipitable water associated with this system, localized heavy rain may be possible with any showers that do develop. The rain likely wont be a widespread persistent rain, but rather favor rounds of showers which will reduce any threat of flooding concerns.

The initial shortwave shifts east by late Saturday morning with some clearing potentially in its wake via subsidence. Some peaks of sunshine will allow for an increase in instability, mainly in the southern regions where distance from the core of the trough will be greater. Surface instability is progged to climb towards 1200-1800 J/kg on the NAM3 and HRRR model soundings, a subtle increasing trend from previous runs. Limitations to any severe weather will be a disconnect between the instability and more favorable dynamics. Higher instability is expected to the south with more potential clearing during day time heating, however, stronger dynamics and shear are closer to the International Border, closer to the upper low. Regardless, there is enough instability near the shear maximums with associated height falls to support some scattered thunderstorm activity, particularly across northern New York and the International Border Saturday mid to late afternoon. Some model soundings denote capping over the instability maximums in southern Vermont, which may inhibit more widespread thunderstorm activity. The main impacts from these potential storms will be localized heavy rainfall and some small hail. Hail growth zone thickness to around 10,000 would support some small hail formation. Given the disconnection of the thermal and dynamic components and lack of true convergence, severe storm potential is low, however, some stronger thunderstorms will be possible.

A secondary shortwave on the back of the departing long wave trough Sunday will bring another chance for showers and embedded thunderstorms, mainly across southern Vermont. Northerly flow will be advecting cooler air from the north with increasing waa flow to the south. Along this air mass boundary from central Vermont to the southeast, additional shower activity will be possible, though instability will be lower, only to around 500J/kg on model soundings for VSF. Continued chances for small hail will be possible, though heavy rain will be less likely as the jet streak slides south will a drying of the mid to upper levels. Total rainfall from Saturday into Sunday ranges between a tenth of an inch in southern Vermont and the Adirondacks to around a quarter to half an inch in portions of the St. Lawrence Valley and near the International Border. Behind the weekend system, temperatures will trend cooler on Sunday with highs only in the upper 60s to low 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Surface high pressure will anchor itself just off the Eastern Seaboard as another high amplitude upper level ridge settles across the eastern US. The pattern will thus repeat itself with some toasty temperatures in the 80s to near 90, but relatively comfortable humidity for the midweek. Forecast model scenarios begin to diverge beyond Wednesday. Embedded within the upper ridge, there's a narrow trough ambling east, and the timing of this feature is up for debate. Regardless, a trend towards more humid conditions will coincide with this feature, as well as the potential for some showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions will prevail with patchy high clouds. Dry air will limit fair weather cumulus, but some could develop around 7000-8000 ft agl about 16z-22z. Southwest winds are expected at KSLK and KMSS at 5 to 10 knots with a few gusts 15-19 knots, but remaining terminals will experience terrain driven flows around 5 knots. Ceilings will begin to lower from west to east as a surface trough approaches the St. Lawrence Valley after 06z Saturday, but conditions will likely remain VFR with precipitation translating east after 06z Saturday as well.

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

CLIMATE

Temperatures will be approaching daily record warm values today, June 5th. At this time, Plattsburgh (PBG) and Montpelier (MPV) have the greatest chances of setting a new record.

Record High Temperatures:

June 5: KMPV: 86/2025 KPBG: 90/2020

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 5: KPBG: 65/1963

June 6: KPBG: 67/1973

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.