textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

No significant changes to the current forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

1. Quiet and dry weather is expected through the late week.

2. The extended forecast continues to be very quiet with seasonable temperatures and dry conditions prevail through next weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: High pressure 1037 mb is currently centered over Nova Scotia early this morning as a low level jet blows across Ontario and Quebec. This is resulting in clear skies and breezy conditions on mountaintops. Temperatures this morning in the 30s and 40s will rebound into the lower 60s by the afternoon hours under southerly flow. A weak moisture starved cold front will slide south from Canada Monday night into Tuesday and wash out over the area with no precipitation expected, though some morning clouds and cooler temperatures can be expected Tuesday morning. Sunny skies will prevail thereafter with large scale ridging leading to low humidity and light winds through mid week. There continues to be high confidence of no precipitation areawide at least through mid week.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Little change in the forecast provided by WPC this package with temps trending cooler than normal by late week and dry conditions prevailing. A weak cold front will drop south late Thurs into Friday with northerly winds and cooler 925mb to 850mb thermal profiles. The latest ECMWF is most aggressive with showing a closing 700 to 500mb circulation and the potential for a few sprinkles/flurries, while the GFS/CMC are less robust with trof development and associated caa. The probability of measurable precip is <10% attm, so have no mention of pops in latest fcst. Based on progged 850mb temps btwn 0C and -2C and similar 925mb temps, the highs provided by WPC are in the upper 30s mtns summits to l/m 50s valleys on Friday and warm into the mid 40s to upper 50s by Saturday and mostly mid 50s to lower 60s by Sunday. Lows generally in the mid 20s to mid 30s, warming back into the mid 30s to lower 40s by Sunday. As daily nocturnal inversion develop by next weekend, expect a sharp thermal gradient between cooler/sheltered valleys and warmer midslope/ridges to persist. These temperature details are not very well captured by the latest forecast provided by WPC.

Fire weather concerns increase this week, given the dry conditions, mild temperatures and sunshine, significant drying of fine fuels, including leaf litter is expected, but winds are expected to remain light.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 12Z Tuesday...VFR conditions continue to prevail through 06z tonight with surface high pressure and south to southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A weak cold front will shift south after 06z with a wind change to the north-northwest at 4 to 8 knots, along with some slightly better low level moisture. The probability of MVFR/localized IFR/LIFR in stratus/mist is <20% at this time, so have just hinted at lower clouds with few-sct 500 feet. If any lower cigs develop, it would be after 06z Tuesday and toward sunrise.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.