textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 212 AM EDT Sunday...

No significant changes have been made with this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 212 AM EDT Sunday...

1. Mild temperatures expected today and Monday ahead of an approaching cold front.

2. Cooler temperatures expected Sunday with warming temperatures through the remainder of the week.

DISCUSSION

As of 212 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Today will be a chamber of commerce type of day with high temperatures warming into the lower to mid 60s after a cool start to the morning. Light winds will switch to the south at 5-12 mph this afternoon. Plentiful sunshine will be seen through much of the day with high clouds filtering in ahead of the approaching cold front this afternoon. A cold front will move across the region Monday afternoon with the potential for isolated to scattered rain showers ahead of the boundary. Models continue to show a plethora of dry air in the low levels and the general idea is that the best chances for rain will be across the high terrain as it's unlikely we see the deeper valleys have time to saturate before dry air advects into the region in the wake of the cold front. Some of the high-res guidance is showing up to 0.05" of rain across the summits but even that seems a bit generous given the antecedent dry air mass.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Noticeably colder temperatures will be observed on Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure and clear skies will coincide with decent low level cold advection. Tuesday morning will see lows in the 20s while Wednesday morning will see lows in the lower teens to lower 20s. Highs on Tuesday will only climb into the 40s. It'll be our first real taste of arctic air this fall as the transition to winter isn't too far away. As a matter of fact, we may be looking at some record low temperatures Wednesday morning. The good news is that high pressure overhead will allow the air mass to slowly moderate Wednesday into next weekend with highs climbing back into the 60s for Thursday and Friday. There is a slight chance for a few showers on Friday with another weak cold front but again it looks like dry conditions will likely persist. For those with little ones who plan to go trick-or-treating, the forecast for Halloween looks dry and seasonably mild.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 12Z Monday...VFR conditions and light winds are expected to prevail through the TAF period. KRUT will continue to experience their typical 110-140 degree drainage wind of 7-10 knots through 12Z with winds becoming light and variable throughout the day.

Outlook...

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

EQUIPMENT

Routine observations from KSLK ASOS are unavailable until further notice. While the site is operating, it is not able to disseminate observations normally at this time. Technicians are aware of the issue, but time of return to service is unknown.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.