textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 227 AM EST Saturday...

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 227 AM EST Saturday...

1. Patchy freezing rain and drizzle into the morning.

2. Warm, windy and showery today and tonight.

3. The potential for some river ice movement/breakup and the potential for a few ice jams remains possible later this weekend into early next week.

4. Additional chances for rain and continued warm temperatures through mid week.

DISCUSSION

As of 227 AM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Temperatures for most areas east of the Greens and in southern Essex County NY have fallen below freezing. Increasing moist southeasterly flow off the Atlantic Ocean will cause areas of mist and drizzle in those areas. Temperatures will gradually rise above freezing in those areas but it will likely take until mid morning for this to happen in the coldest places east of the Greens. Rain showers will also move in from the west later in the night and tomorrow morning, and these will fall as freezing rain in those areas. However, those showers should be mostly restricted to central and northern areas (Orange County and north) where up to around a tenth of an inch of ice is expected. The rest of the areas below freezing should only see up to a light glaze from the freezing mist and drizzle.

KEY MESSAGE 2: An area of low pressure tracks over the Great Lakes into Canada during the day today, as a Bermuda type high remains established off the coast. This sets the stage for strong warm air and moisture advection. Increasing winds should prevent significant fog from forming, but with the warm moist air over extensive snowpack it is still possible, especially in the protected hollows. Temperatures look to eventually reach the 50s for most areas today, with a run at 60 possible for parts of northern New York. While a round of showers is likely for northern areas in the morning, most of the day should be dry. The cold front comes through late in the day and overnight, bringing a round of potentially heavy showers. A few rumbles of thunder are possible over northern New York. From a hydro perspective, the amount of rain should not be overly high. The line should be relatively fast moving and most of the day should be dry. However, combined with warm temperatures and dew points reaching the 40s, significant snowmelt will occur, though the fastest rates will be pretty short lived. Gusty southerly winds will occur on Saturday, with localized enhancements in the Champlain Valley due to channeling and in the northern Adirondacks due to downsloping. These winds will also enhance snowmelt.

KEY MESSAGE 3: There does not look to be enough rain or river ice melt to cause much in the way of flooding or ice breakup today, though very localized ice movement could occur. The sustained warm weather on Sunday and Monday, though thankfully without any additional precipitation, may cause more widespread ice breakup to start to occur, and there is the potential for a few ice jams. While localized field flooding is possible, significant flooding is not expected due to a lack of precipitation accompanying the snowmelt.

KEY MESSAGE 4: A low pressure system will track from the plains northeastward through the Great Lakes bringing additional precipitation to our region especially Wednesday but also on Thursday as the low will then push east of our region. At this time looks like we'll mainly see rain on Wednesday, and the precipitation on Thursday could end with a changeover to snow. Still a lot of uncertainty as we're talking about days 5 and 6, models lack agreement.Temperatures will continue to be warm from Tuesday night through Saturday. With warm air and additional precipitation will continue to watch for potential of flooding due to ice jam breakup.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 06Z Sunday...Through 06z Sunday...Most sites are currently MVFR as ceilings move into the area ahead of approaching rainfall. MPV is down to IFR with some low ceilings in that area. Winds continue to be gusty out of the south areawide, southeast at Rutland with some drainage flow influence. Dewpoints will rise above freezing as precipitation moves into our area, and some fog over snowpack may develop. Areas east of the greens could see some freezing rain as temperatures are in the mid 20s in that area. Have utilized Prob 30 groups for precipitation moving into our area. 35-45 knots at 2000 ft will likely produce LLWS at all terminals. Although it's expected to increase further, areas like KBTV may not technically meet thresholds at times as surface winds increase most in the Champlain Valley with gusts near to above 30 knots at KBTV. Shower activity will diminish about 15- 18z. Some improvement to ceilings is possible, and definitely visibility, as daytime heating takes place. A cold front will approach from the west towards KMSS about 22z Saturday.

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA, Definite FZRA. Wednesday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite RA, Definite FZRA.

EQUIPMENT

The KBTV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of return to service. The affected communications line is not serviced by the NWS. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue, but regular observations may not be available.

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for VTZ003- 004-006>008-010. NY...None.