textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 206 AM EST Sunday...

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 206 AM EST Sunday...

1. Lingering upslope snow showers gradually taper off today.

2. A warm, dry and mostly sunny week is in store.

DISCUSSION

As of 206 AM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: The moist cyclonic flow will continue through tonight, but the shortwave responsible for the widespread showers yesterday has passed to the south, ending most of the synoptic forcing. A subsidence inversion will form today and begin to lower, keeping the clouds trapped under it, but also decreasing the moisture depth. By tonight, the moisture depth should be too shallow to produce precipitation. Overall, only a couple tenths of an inch of additional snow accumulations are expected today. Tonight into Monday, the lowering inversion should drop below summit height and cause undercast to develop.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A potent ridge and associated area of surface high pressure will dominate the weather this week, making it feel as if it were still mid-October. In a classic El Nino pattern, deep troughing and strong surface lows over the Pacific have caused continuous southwest to westerly flow out west, flooding the Great Plains and western Canada with warm Pacific air. This has caused temperature anomalies in the 20-30+ degree range. This airmass will begin to arrive Monday, but clouds will likely remain stuck under the inversion, so it will likely take until Tuesday to warm up. From then through the end of the week, and now likely through the weekend, highs in the 50s will prevail, though 60 will be possible in some of the warmest areas. There will be a strong, persistent subsidence inversion, and it will aided by the fact that significantly more surface heat will be lost at night than will be able to be replenished by the sun during the day. Radiational cooling will help lows drop into the 20s and 30s, around climatological normals. Weak troughs will gradually erode the ridge from the north, but it looks like it will take through next weekend for the ridge to get pushed to the south and east. Therefore, cooler conditions and chances for precipitation to return will likely not occur until the start of the following week.

AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 06Z Monday...A mix of rain and snow showers continues to shift south across the region. Intermittent precipitation will continue through the next 4-8 hours, and then become increasingly tied to terrain from 06z-12z and beyond. Ceilings range from 800-3000 ft agl, and little is expected to change, except some slight improvement at KMSS. Intervals of reduced visibility to 2-5 SM is possible in heavier showers, and may be closer to 1SM in snow showers. Slow improvement is expected past 13-15z under increasing northwest winds around 5-10 knots, but many terminals could remain MVFR over the next 24 hours.

Outlook...

Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.