textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 139 PM EST Thursday...

No significant changes have been made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 139 PM EST Thursday...

1. Snow showers continue to dwindle across the region, with drier conditions expected tonight and tomorrow.

2. A weak disturbance will bring additional snow showers to the region Friday night into Saturday.

3. Modest warming trend expected early next week with more uncertainty thereafter. Periods of snow and/or rain are possible.

DISCUSSION

As of 139 PM EST Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: It's shaping up to be a pleasant February afternoon as with seasonably cool temperatures and blue skies trying to make an appearance as moisture continues to wane across the region. Lingering mountain snow showers will continue to taper off this afternoon due to the lack of moisture, with dry weather expected tonight into the day tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A weak clipper system will bring some additional snow showers to the region Friday night into Saturday. This feature looks to fall apart as it moves through the region, with weak forcing and limited moisture allowing for rather lackluster snowfall amounts and little to no impacts. The current forecast shows only a dusting to a few tenths of an inch for most locations, with a few inches possible across the higher terrain. These snow showers should taper off throughout the day Saturday, with high pressure building in for the later half of the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 3: The main story for next week will be the warming trend through Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday. Daytime highs in the upper 30s to low/mid 40s look fairly likely, with lows mainly in the mid 20s. We'll have one upper shortwave swing across the region Sunday night into Monday. It's fairly weak and moisture-starved but it could produce some showers as it moves through, likely snow but perhaps mixing with and/or changing to rain if the precipitation persists into Monday afternoon. Things become more complicated thereafter as a complex frontal system has the potential to bring rain, freezing rain, and snow to the region. There are a lot of differences in both deterministic and ensemble solutions with this system, as a frontal boundary looks to be draped somewhere near or over our forecast area, separating cold air spreading southward from Canada and warm air lifting northward toward the international border. The question is where this all sets up. Stay tuned to later forecasts as hopefully trends will become more clear as we approach next week.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 00Z Saturday...Skies are clearing across the region, and winds are trending light to terrain driven. An increased number of high resolution and LAMP guidance is suggesting we may decouple such that ice crystals will be suspended just off the ground about 08z-13z, and this may result in ice fog or ice pillars. Impacts to visibility and forecasting this type of phenomena is already a low confidence proposition. So only KSLK has a TEMPO leading into prevailing 2SM since it has the highest probability for getting cold enough for these conditions and the most model support, while most other fog prone regions have VCFG noted. Otherwise, after 13z, a range of southwest to northwest winds of 5 to 10 mph, locally higher at KMSS is expected through the day, and decreasing approaching 00z Saturday. After 00z Saturday, snow showers will approach from the northwest.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Washingtons Birthday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.

CLIMATE

As of 139 PM EST Thursday... In Burlington, the last day with a temperature breaking 32 degrees was January 22nd. The next time we are forecasting temperatures rising above 32 in Burlington is this Saturday, February 14th. If that forecast holds, that would be 22 days in a row below freezing. Sub-freezing temperature streaks this long are fairly unusual in the Burlington area, last happening January-February 2015.

EQUIPMENT

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.