textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 255 AM EDT Sunday...

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 255 AM EDT Sunday...

1. Dry through Monday then showers Tuesday into Wednesday.

2. Near normal temperatures expected for the second half of the week into the weekend. No significant weather anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION

As of 255 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A dry and seasonably cool stretch is in store for the next couple days. Highs will be in the 70s to low 80s and lows will be in the upper 40s and 50s for most places. An occluding low will track well to the north Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing several rounds of showers. The showers look to begin sometime Tuesday and continue into the day on Wednesday. Right now, the severe threat is low. There does not look to be a well-defined boundary, instead several rounds of showers with plenty of clouds look to move through. There is very little time for solar heating and instability to form, and the airmass will be relatively cool to start. With the low tracking well to the north, the best synoptic forcing will be well to the north, though there should be adequate wind shear. The system does not look to provide much of a flooding threat either. GEFS/EPS/CMCE combined ensemble probabilities of receiving more than an inch of rain are only up to 30 percent. While there will be areas of convective enhancement, the storms will be quick-moving and there will be gaps between the showers. PWATs should rise into the 1.5- 1.75 inch range but with the expected setup, that should not pose too much of a problem.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Wednesday night through Sunday will feature quieter weather as we close out the week. Upper level trough will pull away from the region with precipitation coming to an end Wednesday night. Surface high pressure will ridge over our region Thursday and Thursday night. A low pressure system passes well to our north Friday into Friday night, and a weak front will bring our next chance for showers probably Friday night. The weekend looks mainly dry at this point with near normal temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 06Z Monday...Cold front still working it's way across the region and some showers are present at RUT at time of TAF issuance. All showers should exit our area in the next hour or so. Have seen some MVFR ceilings in and behind these showers. Will see occasional MVFR conditions, from wildfire smoke producing 3-5SM vsby. Surface winds shift NW overnight at 10-15kt with some gusts 20-25kt, likely highest at BTV. Shallow frontal inversion may lead to some trapped smoke 09-13Z before better daytime mixing on Sunday allows any associated vsby restrictions to end. Can't rule out some ceilings 1-2kft around sunrise, especially at KSLK. Drying north winds will allow these low clouds to dissipate by 12-13Z with VFR for the balance of the TAF period on Sunday.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA, Chance TSRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Definite SHRA, Chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

MARINE

Gusty northwest winds will continue for the rest of the night and into the day today. They look to be sustained in the 15-30 KT range for the rest of the night, before decreasing into the 15-25 KT range during the day. Waves will range in the 1-3 FT range for the rest of the night, before dropping into the 1-2 foot range for the day. Winds and waves come down significantly this evening. Winds will drop below 10 KTs and waves will drop below 1 foot.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.