textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 241 PM EDT Sunday...

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 241 PM EDT Sunday...

1. Showers and a couple embedded thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

2. Mostly dry and seasonably cool weather through mid-week.

3. Periods of unsettled weather continue through the end of the week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 241 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A southern stream low will continue to push off to the northeast and eastern Vermont will become completely dry by mid- afternoon. As the center passes to the east, it will help decrease the southerly winds and warm air advection. A prefrontal trough will move into northern New York from Ontario this afternoon and evening, causing a broken line of showers and storms to develop. These will be slow moving and should mostly be confined to northern New York until 7-8 PM. These will weaken as they push east. Another round of showers will move through overnight from northwest to southeast associated with the cold front, though low instability should keep them weak. A brief strong to severe storm is possible this afternoon in the St. Lawrence Valley where instability is the highest. Dew points have reached around 70 there and some breaks of sun have caused temperatures to rise into the upper 70s. The cloudy marine modified airmass farther southeast will cause storms to quickly weaken as they try to push east.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Relatively zonal flow will develop heading into mid- week, though the northern stream energy should mostly stay to the north and the southern stream energy should mostly stay to the south. The one exception is Tuesday night into Wednesday morning where a few showers are possible in northern areas as a dying cold front moves into the region. Otherwise, surface high pressure will generally remain in control. Efficient radiational cooling will cause temperatures to drop into the 30s and 40s on Monday night, with patchy frost expected in the coldest hollows of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. Overall, during this stretch, highs will generally be in the 60s and 70s with low humidity.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Upper level flow will remain high zonal and unblocked next week supporting a series of fast-moving waves moving through every 2-3 days. The result will be for continued periods of showers with highs around to slightly below seasonal averages and overnight lows remaining slightly above averages. Model consensus favors trough passage Thursday into Friday, brief high pressure Saturday, and another wave potentially late in the weekend into early the following week. With wave amplitude remaining shallow, significant impacts are unlikely, but some moderate to localized heavier precipitation will be possible with the Thursday wave since PWATs climb above 1.25". A few rumbles of thunder could occur along the front, especially towards southern Vermont. High temperatures are favored to remain in the upper 60s to mid 70s with lows generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 00Z Tuesday...Scattered rain showers with a few embedded rumbles of thunder will persist through much of the overnight period tonight. Generally anticipate VFR conditions, with MVFR ceilings/visibilities possible in any showers. Ceilings will briefly lower to MVFR 08z-14z at SLK/MPV/EFK, but improving conditions are expected thereafter. S/SW winds this evening will turn to the W and eventually NW tonight into early Monday morning, becoming gusty to around 20 by the afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. Patchy BR. Tuesday: VFR. Patchy BR. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.