textproduct: Burlington

SYNOPSIS

A messy wintry mix early will trend towards scattered snow showers, and then westerly upslope snow, as temperatures cool alongside blustery winds. Some lake effect snow will follow on Monday, with another widespread light precipitation event Tuesday night into Wednesday. A strong cold front will bring much drier air on Thursday, and sub-freezing temperatures will prevail for the remainder of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 157 AM EST Saturday...

*Slick roads, especially on bridges and overpasses, as well as at higher elevations, will continue today with temperatures near freezing.

*Scattered snow showers late today will become more terrain- driven tonight with minor snowfall expected along the western slopes of the Adirondacks and near the spine of the Green Mountains tonight.

Aside from portions of the Northeast Kingdom, near surface temperatures overnight were warm enough to produce more rain than expected with mainly wet roads being observed. However, a cold rain and wintry mix should end as light snow in many places this morning as colder air aloft pushes in from the west. Have continued the Winter Weather Advisory through this morning for the higher terrain in southern Vermont and Adirondacks where more widespread icy conditions are expected, but with the cooling thermal profiles precipitation should trend towards snow there too.

As surface low pressure to our west ambles northeastward, a well-defined dry slot will move across our region, so little or no precipitation will fall until late in the day as the system's cold front brings deeper moisture and scattered showers. Ahead of the front, the snow squall parameter will peak in the 3-5PM timeframe, when precipitation is favored only in northern New York based on timing of the front. The large scale features to generate cold season convection look good, but the best instability looks to be south of our region. That being said, while frontogenesis doesn't look sharp, there is enough thermal advection and moisture around to bring us numerous snow showers during the mid-late afternoon in northern New York and late afternoon and evening in Vermont. In northern New York, especially over the Adirondacks, these showers will be heavy at times. Farther east, the low level moisture does not look particularly impressive to support higher snowfall rates with these showers. Lack of organization will limit risk of snow squalls, as well, but have noted some potential of snow squalls over southern Vermont extending into portions of Rutland and Windsor counties early this evening.

As pressure rises begin behind the front tonight and a low level inversion develops, winds will pick up greatly, gusting 30 to 40 MPH in much of the northern Adirondacks and central and eastern Vermont. The height of the inversion looks fairly low, so we'll have some potential for gap winds in Vermont for locally higher wind gusts. Snow showers with snow ratios increasing towards 20:1 will be most prolific in the northern Greens, leading to a swath of around 2 to 5 inches of new snow. There should be a short period of heavier upslope snow near the spine with average Froude numbers near 1.5 in the early morning hours.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 157 AM EST Saturday... * Lake effect type of snow expected downwind of Lake Ontario Monday into Monday night.

Winds will abate somewhat on Monday, but shift southwesterly. Favorable flow at 925 millibars with a mid-level wave moving across the region will support some snow showers primarily in the snow belt over southeastern St. Lawrence County into the western Adirondacks, with some snow making it northeastward into northern/northeastern Vermont at times later Monday. With flow remaining fairly steady out of the west-southwest through much of the following 24 to 36 hours, chances for snow showers will continue into Monday night. Upper level ridging and associated drying, along with loss of instability over Lake Ontario given rising air temperatures, will help diminish shower activity on Tuesday. Temperatures across the region will warm back above freezing on Tuesday following a seasonably cold day on Monday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 1247 AM EST Sunday...A clipper system will slide up to our west and north Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing another round of showers to the region. Profiles indicate precipitation will begin as snow, but anticipate it to mix with and/or change to rain in the wider valleys during the day Wednesday as highs warm into the mid 30s to low 40s. Expect breezy south to southwest winds with this system as well, particularly in the Champlain and St Lawrence Valleys due to funneling. Gusts to 30 mph will be possible in these areas.

Heading into the latter half of the week, we will remain on the eastern periphery of a upper level trough extending from the Great Lakes down into the SE CONUS. As noted by the previous forecaster, the best forcing/moisture and low pressure development look to remain to our south and east, while surface high pressure builds to our north and west. This latter feature is a very dry airmass, and note that PWATs will only be 0.25 inch by Thursday morning as per the latest GFS, and with north flow, we'll only dry with time. Given the complex set up, there's still time for things to change, and have stayed with the NBM's 20-50% PoPs for now. However, wouldn't be surprised if we see a dry period through late week and into the weekend with low pressure systems and their associated precipitation affecting southern New England down into the Mid Atlantic. Also of note will be a dramatic return to below normal temperatures; after Wednesday's highs above freezing, we'll likely struggle to get out of the teens and low 20s Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 06z Monday...Widespread precipitation will keep conditions MVFR/IFR through about 12z Sun. Precipitation should mainly fall as rain, except at KEFK where snow will be favored, and KMSS which will likely continue to see a mix of snow/freezing rain and rain. KSLK and KMPV could also see snow mix in from time to time through the early morning hours. Visibility 5-6SM in rain, and 1-3SM in snow and/or wintry mix. Precipitation ends from west to east 10z-12z, with clouds scattering out in most spots with VFR for at least a few hours. However, additional snow shower activity will redevelop after 21z, mainly at KMSS/KSLK/KEFK, and expect ceilings to once again lower to 1500-2500 ft, especially in the higher terrain. Visibility 2-4SM in snow showers. Light S/SW winds through early morning will trend to the W/SW and become gusty by 18z and remaining so through the remainder of the TAF period. LLWS will also continue early in the period, ending by 12z at all terminals.

Outlook...

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHSN, Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHSN. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.

EQUIPMENT

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for VTZ019-020. NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NYZ034.