textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 304 AM EDT Friday...

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 304 AM EDT Friday...

1. Dry through Saturday, then showers will impact our area on Sunday especially our southern zones.

2. High pressure will provide our region with mostly dry conditions and below normal temperatures, along with the potential for frost in climo favored areas.

DISCUSSION

As of 304 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry and cool weather is expected today through Saturday night as a ridge of surface high pressure brushes by to our north. Winds will be gusty out of the north northwest today up to around 25 mph at times. Temperatures will also be cool enough overnight for some pockets of patchy frost in the coolest spots of the Adirondacks and northeast Kingdom. Temperatures today and Saturday will range through the 60s with Saturday cooler than today. Then a warm front will lift into our forecast area on Sunday and bring showers to our region, especially our southern zones. A southward shift in the models with this system means we are now expecting between a trace and four tenths of an inch of rain through Monday morning. Bulk of this system will be south of our region, and slide east and away from the area by Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A Rex block type of pattern will develop next week to our west, which will hold a ridge of high pressure over northern New England and Quebec such that we'll get refills of cool and dry air. The closed upper level low that gradually works its way eastward through the Great Lakes region may open up and get pushed ever so slightly northward as it moves to the east, opening the door for increasing rain chances by Thursday.

Aside from this potential rain, the only other weather of note will be chilly nights that set the stage for frost development. For now, based on the expected position of high pressure, there is a slightly higher chance of some patchy frost in portions of the Adirondacks and central/northeastern Vermont Wednesday morning, but it is on the table each morning Tuesday through Thursday with relatively light winds each night.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 06Z Saturday...Currently a wide range in flight conditions present ranging from VFR to LIFR which will continue through 12Z. A slow trend towards improving conditions is expected as winds off the deck increase and drying from above gradually erodes the low stratus and fog that is widespread at this hour. The northwesterly flow could more effectively mix out the lowest clouds at sites such as EFK and MPV, while blocked flow helps maintain IFR conditions at BTV and RUT. Highest confidence in LIFR conditions throughout the next six hours exists at SLK, and mainly VFR conditions at PBG. Around or soon after 12Z, northwest winds will ramp up with gusts by 16Z in the 15 to 25 knot range at all terminals. These gusty winds will persist through at least 00Z at most sites before diminishing. Skies will be mainly clear with perhaps patchy fog development towards the very end of the TAF period in the vicinity of SLK and MPV.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.