textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 130 PM EST Thursday...Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for much of northern New York until 7 PM. Temperatures will fall sharply this evening.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 130 PM EST Thursday...

1. Temperatures are falling sharply across the region and any wet surfaces have potential to freeze, especially untreated surfaces and unpaved roads. Cold overnight temperatures are expected.

2. Next chance for precipitation comes Friday night into Saturday as upper level trough moves over the area.

3. An unseasonably cold and unsettled pattern looks to continue next week with multiple chances for snow, but no system looks overly significant or impactful.

DISCUSSION

As of 130 PM EST Thursday...

.KEY MESSAGE 1: Snow will gradually taper off to snow showers this evening, with some additional snow accumulations possible in the more favored upslope locations. Temperatures will drop off sharply with minimum temperatures nose diving into the single digits above and below zero. Conditions will also become breezy out of the west, so apparent temperatures will dip into the teens below zero, close to -20.

.KEY MESSAGE 2: Next chance for precipitation comes in the Friday night into Saturday timeframe, along with a warm up for the daytime hours on Saturday. An upper level trough will cross our area, bringing some light snow to the region. Temperatures on Saturday afternoon influenced by warm southerly flow will reach the lower 30s areawide.

.KEY MESSAGE 3: The end of the weekend Sunday will see a return to below average temperatures and unsettled weather. A long wave trough will continue to nudge closer to the region Sunday into Monday with continued southwest flow, but west/northwest flow aloft. A few shortwaves will be able to sustain at least a chance of snow across northern New York and perhaps the spine of the Greens through mid-week, but snow accumulations look rather unimpressive, outside of southern St. Lawrence County where a lake effect band may develop. Surface southwest flow in the southern St. Lawrence Valley will air in the development of a potentially prolonged lake effect band Sunday through Wednesday. The band on average looks to remain south of the region, however, it will waffle about the St. Lawrence/Lewis/Jefferson County borders. Upper level cooling this week will keep the region on the cold side with highs falling from the 20s Sunday into the teens and single digits by mid week. The coldest period will be Monday night through Tuesday night following an arctic front Monday. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday night will fall into the single digits above and below zero, with the coldest hollows of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom potentially pushing -10F. Snow across northern New York will likely aid in further temperatures falls. Southwest winds will also be breezy both nights which will drive wind chills into the negative teens across the Adirondacks and negative single digits elsewhere. Tuesday night appears to be the coldest of the two, but regardless, this may be the coldest air we have seen this season thus far with 925mb temperatures around -20C.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 18Z Friday...An upper low continues to rotate across the region, centered over eastern Lake Ontario with a challenging visibility forecast. Precipitation in the form of snow will continue to fall across MSS/SLK/EFK for at least the next 6 hours, becoming more upslope based to SLK/EFK by this evening. Across Vermont, a dry slot has limited the overall precipitation shield with only an isolated snow shower expected across Vermont terminals between 18- 22Z; EFK may hold on longer to any snow showers through 00Z, especially with any residual BR. In this precipitation break, with temperatures below freezing there is a chance for patchy freezing mist which could lead to a localized light glaze at terminals. Ceilings will begin to trend towards MVFR at IFR/LIFR sites over the next 2-3 hours with prevailing MVFR expected through the overnight period with 2000-3000ft agl ceilings. Occasional reductions in visibilities will also be possible, mainly at EFK/MSS/SLK as the upper low slides north and east. Winds will switch to the west this afternoon and become breezy, up to 20kts, overnight into tomorrow morning. By 12Z, the cloud shield will lift out of the area with mainly scattered to clear skies by the end of the TAF period. Westerly winds will remain breezy tomorrow morning, weakening towards the afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. Chance SN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Martin Luther King Jr Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

EQUIPMENT

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ026- 027-087. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ029>031-034.