textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 239 PM EDT Wednesday...

No significant changes

KEY MESSAGES

As of 239 PM EDT Wednesday...

1. Increased fire weather concerns through this weekend.

2. Mostly dry and seasonable conditions continue through the weekend.

3. Seasonable and mainly dry weather will continue through at least the first half of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 239 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: While conditions are not expected to reach Red Flag Criteria in the upcoming future, gusty conditions and lower relative humidity values will cause increased fire weather concerns due to plentiful dry leaves on the ground serving as fuel. Winds gusts tomorrow and Friday are generally expected to be in the 15 to 25 mph range, with some gusts up to 30 mph possible. The highest gusts are expected in the St. Lawrence Valley and northern slopes of the Adirondacks where gusts up to 35 mph are possible tomorrow. Relative humidity values will generally be in the 40-55 percent range tomorrow. Relative humidity values are expected in that range again on Friday for most places, but localized drops into the 30-40 percent range are possible in the Lower Connecticut River Valley. Heading into the weekend, winds will mostly remain under 15 mph. However, relative humidity values should drop into the 30-45 percent range for most places, with a localized drop into upper 20s possible in the Lower Connecticut Valley. A few showers are possible tomorrow evening and overnight, but a wetting rain is not expected anywhere.

KEY MESSAGE 2: After a warm day tomorrow, a cold front comes through tomorrow night and into early Friday. A few showers are possible across northern New York and the higher elevations of northern Vermont but with dry air aloft and weak forcing, they will be brief and only lead to a couple hundreths of an inch of rain locally. The highest amounts are expected in the northern Greens and the Adirondacks. Strong cold air advection will occur on Friday with clouds in the typical upslope areas. Surface high pressure builds overhead into the weekend, leading to mostly sunny skies and moderating temperatures. The Halloween forecast looks great with clear skies, light winds and temperatures quickly dropping from the 50s into the 30s during the evening. However, despite clear skies, any added ambiance from the moon will mostly be missing as it was full a couple days ago and will rise around 10:45 Halloween evening.

KEY MESSAGE 3: While no hazardous weather is expected, there is some disagreement amongst ensemble guidance on the upper level pattern early next week. The consensus idea amongst non-GEFS guidance strongly favors a more amplified ridge to our west maintaining northwest flow over our region and deflecting most precipitation well to our west. In this most likely scenario, low level temperatures remain above normal with near surface winds primarily out of the south and chances of rain are very low.

While certainly not indicating any significant weather, the majority of GEFS membership in contrast suggests some weak troughing that allows a shortwave to push showers in from the west. As such, this less likely scenario brings rainfall chances closer to 60% to 75% in the Monday afternoon through Tuesday timeframe, and for amounts exceeding 0.25" mainly 20-30%, or slightly higher in the Adirondacks.

Finally, there are indications that a weak surface cold front similar to ones we've seen in recent weeks could slip in from the north. It would bring chances for very light rain and a cloudier period with reinforcement of seasonably cool air. This complicates the temperature forecast for Tuesday, when the high temperature forecast is relatively uncertain compared to Monday (about twice the model spread).

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 00Z Friday...VFR conditions are favored to continue through the forecast period with the primary aviation concern related to increasing southerly breezes after 12Z Friday. After light winds overnight under terrain influences, the pressure gradient will tighten across the region supporting increasing southerly breezes. Gusts will be light, generally 15 to 20 kts for most terminals. However, terrain alignment will promote slightly stronger gusts at MSS and PBG generally to around 25kts with some periods possibly up to 30kts.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

EQUIPMENT

Routine observations from KSLK ASOS are unavailable until further notice. While the site is operating, it is not able to disseminate observations normally at this time. Technicians are aware of the issue, but time of return to service is unknown.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.