textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 1243 PM EST Saturday...

Relatively mild Lake Champlain temperatures against cold air temperatures tonight into Sunday morning are expected to cause a low level lake cloud to form. This lake cloud could also produce some flurries or light snow showers in the vicinity of Lake Champlain. Any potential accumulations associated with these will be very minor.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 1243 PM EST Saturday...

1. Cold weather continues through the early week with the potential for flurries or light snow showers off Lake Champlain tonight into Sunday morning. These could lead to brief reductions of visibility and very minor accumulations near the lake.

2. Below normal temperatures continue, with a chance of mountain snow showers.

DISCUSSION

As of 1243 PM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Upper level troughing and surface level high pressure persist across northern New York and Vermont this afternoon as temperatures hover in the single digits and teens under cloudy skies. We anticipate temperatures to fall again when light fades this evening with lows early Sunday morning in the negative single digits and negative teens, once again 10-15 degrees below seasonable averages for early February. Winds will be very light and variable across the forecast area tonight with occasional breezes out of the north toward Sunday morning, so wind chills won't be too much lower than actual temperatures for any extended period of time overnight, outside of higher elevations.

Relatively mild Lake Champlain temperatures against these cold air temperatures tonight into Sunday morning are expected to cause a low level lake cloud to form. This lake cloud could also produce some flurries or light snow showers in the vicinity of Lake Champlain. Accumulations will likely be minimal with perhaps a dusting to a tenth of an inch from around Shelburne to Burton Island, including Burlington and Mallets Bay. Accumulating snow potential doesn't look to reach much farther inland than that as the steering wind is out of the north-northwest. That being said, slight wind fluctuations could draw the lake cloud more southwesterly, and slight temperature fluctuations could lengthen or shorten the period in which the lake flurries/showers occur. Fairly dry air at the surface will help inhibit any meaningful accumulations and should keep impacts minimal.

Clouds and marine moisture look to linger into early next week under a subsidence inversion with slowly, gradually moderating temperatures, though dry conditions at the surface will likely limit additional flurry or light snow shower activity. Temperature increases will be hindered Sunday by a nor'easter out in the Atlantic Ocean as it rotates cyclonically out at sea and draws colder air into the region from the north. Highs won't reach above the teens and lower 20s Sunday, with channeled northerly to northwesterly winds in the Champlain Valley gusting as high as 15-20 knots. Then, highs Monday will be mostly in the 20s as the nor'easter moves farther away and surface high pressure returns. Lows will also moderate slightly into the -5 to 5 F range with no concerns for future cold weather products through Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: The long term forecast continues to be quiet. Temperatures next week will be warmer than the past few days, but still below normal. Low temperatures will dip into the single digits Wednesday and Thursday night while highs aren't forecast to reach 30 anywhere in the CWA during the long term. A trough of low pressure slowly moves through the CWA through Thursday bringing a slight chance of snow showers, especially over the Greens. The models are starting to show our next event Friday or Saturday, with the Canadian, Euro, and American models (along with their AI versions) showing accumulating snowfall in the time frame. The consistency is enough for us to put in 50 PoPS and chance to likely snow for the area by next weekend, but the spread of possible outcomes is still rather large.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 18Z Sunday...A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings will persist throughout the day, with a widespread cloud deck hovering between 2,000 and 4,000 feet through Vermont and Northern New York. Light lake enhanced snow could linger through the day, but no other precip is anticipated. CIGs will lower and some light BR or HZ could develop at some TAF sites overnight, but MVFR conditions will persist.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

EQUIPMENT

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.