textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 251 AM EDT Friday...

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 251 AM EDT Friday...

1. A cold front will continue to move through this morning, and with it an end to shower activity. More seasonable and drier weather is expected heading into this weekend.

2. A brief burst of heat will give way to a steadier period of more seasonable weather.

DISCUSSION

As of 251 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front will continue to slide south and east across the region this morning. A few light to moderate showers will be possible south of US-2 through the early morning today, but as the front sags south, showers will begin to taper off. Behind the front through the rest of today, cooler northerly air will begin to filter south from Canada with mid to upper level drying. As our mid to upper levels cool, an inversion may set up with a warm nose present around 800-700mb. This may help spur some isolated, mainly terrain-driven showers in the Adirondacks and Greens; albeit under a 30% chance of rain this afternoon. By and large most will see a mainly dry today with clearing skies by the afternoon. Temperatures today will be much cooler than recent days, only reaching the low 70s to low 80s with initial clouds and northerly flow. With the northerly flow, a light channeled wind in the Champlain Valley may make it feel a bit breezy (around 15 MPH). Some fog may be possible in the usual river valleys tonight due to the recent rains and clearing skies.

Into the weekend, dry and seasonably warm highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s are expected. Dewpoints will also make it feel quite comfortable, with values only around 50F. A mix of sun and clouds can be expected both Saturday and Sunday with clear radiationally cooled overnights. Expect lows in the low to mid 50s and some patchy valley fog, mainly in eastern Vermont, though fog coverage will decrease with subsequent nights through the weekend. Temperatures and the humidity will begin to rebound back up to start off next week as ridging returns to the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A hot and dry air mass will get squeezed between a large, anomalous upper high in the central US, and an upper low that's nothing to sniff at either diving into northern Quebec Province. The fortunate news for us is that this jailbreak heat will get shunted south by this upper low digging southwards. We'll have one day of very warm temperatures to contend with, and 925mb temperatures will push 25-26 C. This usually corresponds with upper 80s for cooler elevation areas, and mid 90s in the broad valleys. The continental source of the air mass will keep dewpoints at least in the low to mid 60s as opposed to truly tropical air.

By Tuesday evening into the overnight, a powerful surface cold front will drop south with this upper low taking up residence in northern Quebec Province. The late timing could prevent activity from being strong, but it seems likely that it will at least linger some Tuesday night into Wednesday before shifting south. We'll watch trends on that, and then afterwards, we're in for some spectacular summer weather, with near normal temperatures, and below normal moisture appears likely.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 06Z Saturday...A cold front is still in transit through the area. A few showers continue to periodically develop, but coverage is rather limited, except in the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. Most locations are VFR or MVFR, but there is patchy lower clouds around 600-900 ft agl, mostly impacting KMSS and KSLK. Over the next 2-4 hours before northwest winds develop, some patchy fog or low ceilings may progress through the area, and any clearing may quickly produce fog. In some cases, though, it seems that ceilings may lower as cooler, more stable air moves in and some moisture gets stuck against terrain for a few hours before sunrise, which could result in prevailing IFR at KSLK, and intervals of IFR at KMPV and KEFK. After 13z, clouds will begin to quickly scatter. Northwest to north winds are expected for most, with speed increasing to 6-11 knots with a few gusts to 18-20 knots possible. After 22z, winds will trend light and variable under clear skies. Fog may quickly develop past 06z Saturday in favored locations.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.