textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 229 PM EDT Saturday...

No significant changes have been made to the forecast this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 229 PM EDT Saturday...

1. Unseasonably cool temperatures continue through the weekend, with areas of patchy frost possible tonight.

2. Another round of showers is expected tomorrow afternoon into the evening, with more scattered showers possible on Monday.

3. A warming trend is expected for the latter half of next week, with temperatures warming into the 80s by Friday,

DISCUSSION

As of 229 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: After a rainy start to the day, drier conditions and partly sunny skies prevail across the region this afternoon. Despite the sunshine, high temperatures will only reach the upper 50s and lower 60s, nearly 10 degrees or so below climatological normals for the end of May. This unseasonably cool airmass will allow for cold overnight lows, with temperatures dipping into the 30s and 40s areawide. Although the night will start out relatively clear, cloud cover moving into the region overnight will help limit the overall frost potential, but areas of patchy frost will be possible, especially in portions of the Adirondacks and eastern Vermont. In addition to the frost, some fog development may be possible as well given the recent rainfall. Temperatures tomorrow look to be a few degrees warmer, with highs generally in the 60s areawide.

KEY MESSAGE 2: After a brief break in the precipitation, another shortwave is expected to move through the region later in the day tomorrow, bringing another round of showers. Compared to the most recent precipitation, lighter rainfall amounts are expected with most locations receiving anywhere from a few hundredths of an inch to a quarter of an inch of liquid. As we head into the beginning of the week, additional shower chances will be possible throughout the day on Monday, driven by steep lapse rates and diurnal heating rather than a clear shortwave or boundary. Any precipitation with these showers would be rather light given the scattered nature. Temperatures will continue to be seasonable cool on Monday as well with possible showers and clouds, with highs once again in the 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Ridging will take hold for a good part of late next week, keeping us warm and dry. Low pressure will develop off the Carolina coast Wednesday and trek northeastward through the end of the week. At this time, any impacts from this system will remain well to our southeast as the track will stay offshore. However, precipitation chances will increase later Friday into the weekend as yet another upper trough will swing down across eastern Canada and into northern New England. Should this pattern hold, it would likely be accompanied by a cold frontal passage and showers/possible thunderstorms. Until then though, mild and dry weather is expected under the aforementioned high pressure. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 70s areawide, then warming into the upper 70s to mid 80s by Friday. Luckily dewpoints look to remain relatively comfortable in the 40s and 50s, so humidity won't be too oppressive.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals through the TAF period. SCT-BKN clouds AOA 3500 ft will dissipate with the sunset this evening, leaving behind SKC for at least a few hours overnight. Mid/high clouds will increase from north to south after 08z Sun ahead of our next system, an upper shortwave trough. These increasing clouds should limit fog formation early Sunday morning, although it can't be totally ruled out. If clouds hold off longer than anticipated, the most likely spots to see any fog would be KMSS and KSLK, perhaps KMPV, with IFR possible should fog actually form. Otherwise, just expect lowering ceilings through 18z Sun. Scattered showers will develop late in the TAF period, but coverage is not enough to include mention in the TAFs at this point. Gusty N winds 18-25 kt this afternoon will become light and variable/calm by 02z this evening. Winds should turn toward the W/NW 5-10 kt after 13z Sun.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

MARINE

As of 229 PM EDT Saturday...

The Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect Lake Champlain with breezy northerly flow continuing this afternoon. Winds are expected to diminish over the next few hours, with winds generally 10 knots or less by this evening.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.