textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 121 AM EST Wednesday...No significant changes were made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 121 AM EST Wednesday...

1. Light to localized moderate snowfall associated with rounds of snow showers with possible snow squalls, primarily late Wednesday into Thursday and again on Friday, will produce some hazardous travel.

2. A significant and dangerously cold arctic outbreak is expected late week into the upcoming weekend with wind chill values 20 to 40 degrees below zero likely.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 06Z Thursday...Several rounds of snow showers, including locally heavier snow, will occur early this morning through Friday. These showers will be associated first with a lake effect snow band stretched across northern New York and northern Vermont this morning, then with a series of frontal boundaries later today (Wednesday) through the end of the week. Gusty winds and possibly snow squalls this upcoming night (Wednesday night) could lead to localized blowing snow, creating hazardous travel conditions. Current sites under the lake effect snow band off Lake Ontario include SLK and BTV, which are both reporting ceilings around 1000- 3000 feet. Snow is heaviest at SLK with visibilities 1-2 miles, but as the moisture thins out farther from Lake Ontario, snow has been lighter at BTV, generally 5+ miles. High resolution models are all indicating the band will shift north and west as the early morning progresses, potentially bringing some light snow and perhaps some isolated MVFR cigs to PBG and then MSS as well.

Winds out of the southwest are decreasing early this morning with some sites going calm or light and variable, but we should see another slight increase in winds and a turn out of the south- southwest around 09Z-12Z. Lake effect snow will come to an end by around 12Z Wednesday, but by 18Z Wednesday, we should already start to see snow returning to parts of northern New York ahead of a warm frontal boundary, and this snow will progress across the entire forecast area during the rest of the afternoon and evening. We'll also see winds picking up even more out of the south around or shortly after this time with gusts 15-35 knots for most sites through 06Z Thursday. Winds look to be strongest in the Champlain Valley (BTV and PBG) due to the north-south orientation of this wider valley. Snow is expected to come to an end around 00Z-04Z Thursday for some, but some showers could linger through 06Z Thursday. MFR ceilings are anticipated to accompany the showers from 20Z-23Z Wednesday onwards. Low level wind shear is expected to be widespread around 21Z Wednesday through 06Z Thursday as a strong southwesterly low level jet increases overhead while surface winds remain more southerly.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Friday: VFR. Chance SHSN. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SN.

CLIMATE

Record low maximum temperatures are possible on Saturday; below are the current records:

KBTV (Burlington area): -4 in 1907 KPBG (Plattsburgh area): 0 in 1976 KSLK (Saranac Lake area): -10 in 1936 KMSS (Massena): -5 in 2004 KMPV (Montpelier): 0 in 2004 SJBV1 (St. Johnsbury): -3 in 1907

EQUIPMENT

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.