textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 256 AM EDT Friday...

No significant changes made with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 256 AM EDT Friday...

1. Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur at times through the weekend as breezy winds continue through Saturday associated with cyclonic flow.

2. Unsettled pattern prevails most of next week, but probability of impactful or significant weather is low.

DISCUSSION

As of 256 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Vertically stacked low pressure rotates across south- central Quebec early this morning and is expected to slowly follow the St. Lawrence River toward the Gulf of St. Lawrence throughout the day today. This cyclonic flow will result in rounds shortwaves triggering numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms through the weekend. This afternoon, precipitation is most likely along the international border and in upslope areas of the mountains, coverage then expanding southward tonight and Saturday. West-southwesterly winds today with gusts 20-30 knots will be turning more west- northwesterly on Saturday with gusts closer to 10-25 knots, promoting deep atmospheric mixing. As a result, highs each day will be in the 60s and 70s with accompanying lows in the mid 40s to 50s, which could feel a bit chillier in the wind. Apparent temperature (wind chills) will likely fall into the 40s at elevations above 3000 feet. Saturday evening, precipitation is most likely isolated to the northern Champlain Valley and northern Greens as brief ridging stabilizes things, but by Sunday another shortwave looks to come through to blossom widespread showers and thunderstorms again. By Sunday night, the upper low haunting our forecast area this weekend will finally move eastward, replaced by another brief ridge but then quickly replaced by another closed upper low zooming west to east across south-central Quebec on Monday, just north of our forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Little change seen in the latest guidance as mid/upper lvl trof prevails acrs the Great Lakes into the NE CONUS next week, but some timing and track differences are continuing with system on Monday. Latest NAM12KM has sfc low pres tracking directly overhead by 12z Monday, while GFS continues to show a unphased northern and southern stream system. Either way, s/w energy crossing our cwa with enhanced mid lvl moisture wl produce occasional showers, but probably not a washout on Monday. A weak mid/upper lvl ridge builds into our cwa for Tues with drier and warmer weather anticipated. However, this wl be short-lived with next system in fast progressive flow aloft arriving Weds into Thurs. This energy, combined with some instability and moisture wl increase the potential for showers and thunderstorms on Weds into Thurs. Given strength of dynamics and associated moderate wind fields/shear, if timing can occur with max heating/instability the ingredients would support some stronger storm potential. Something to monitor as we head into the middle of next week. The WPC gridded fcst shows temps in the 70s Monday/Tuesday, before warming into the mid 70s to lower 80s for Weds and Thurs, with lows mostly in the 50s to near 60F.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 12Z Saturday...Ceilings and timing of showers with embedded thunderstorms are the taf challenges today. Currently conditions vary from IFR at SLK to MVFR at MSS/EFK to VFR at MPV/BTV/RUT and PBG. IFR will continue at SLK thru 15Z, before conditions improve to MVFR with a mix of VFR and MVFR. Showers will increase in areal coverage this aftn and continue into the evening hours. A few rumbles of thunder will be possible along with localized gusty winds up to 30 knots. In addition, brief MVFR vis/cigs are likely in the heavier downpours. Cigs will continue to trend toward MVFR this evening with IFR likely at SLK/MPV and EFK and possibly MSS toward Sat morning. Breezy southwest to west winds prevail most of the day at 10 to 20 knots with gusts up 25 knots.

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

CLIMATE

As of 308 PM EDT Thursday... Daily record precipitation of 1.22 inches was achieved for the Saranac Lake Area yesterday, breaking the 1924 record of 0.87 inches.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.