textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 220 PM EDT Friday...

No significant changes to the current forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 220 PM EDT Friday...

1. Dry and seasonable conditions are expected as we head into the weekend through Saturday.

2. A pair of systems will increase precipitation chances across northern New York and southeastern Vermont into the latter portion of the weekend.

3. Seasonable conditions prevail for much of next week with several chances for showers.

DISCUSSION

As of 220 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry and relatively seasonable conditions are expected to prevail into the early portion of the weekend with high pressure overhead. Fair weather cumulus will wane towards this evening with clearing skies tonight. More cloud cover is possible in southeastern Vermont, associated with a departing coast low off the coast of southern New England. Temperatures tonight will be cooler across the northern and western locations falling into the upper 40s to low 50s; mid 50s for the Champlain Valley and southern Vermont. A few sheltered locations could fall as low as the low 40s in portions of the Adirondacks with strong radiational cooling. Patchy river fog in the Connecticut River and sheltered river valleys of the Adirondacks and eastern Vermont will be possible near sunrise tomorrow morning.

Clouds will increase from southeast to northwest in Vermont, with some clearing hanging on across the St. Lawrence Valley by tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures will be fairly similar to today; about a degree or two warmer with highs in the mid 70s to near 80. More southeasterly light breezes, especially in the Champlain Valley are expected as another coastal low rides up the East Coast by mid to late Saturday. Saturday night lows will be a bit warmer with less fog and radiational cooling from increased cloud cover, with values in the mid to upper 50s in the higher terrain, and low 60s in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys. Precipitation chances begin to slowly increase late Saturday night as the coastal low departs to the east, and an approaching Great Lakes Trough slides east into northern New York.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Following a calm start to the weekend, conditions will turn more wet and showery by the latter portion of the weekend. As high pressure drifts to the northwest, it will leave in its wake an area of subsidence and subtle ridging centered from northeast to southwest across Vermont Saturday and Sunday. A pair of systems will split this area of ridging bringing shower chances to portions of the area. The first of the two systems will be a weak coastal low along the coast of southern New England, which will track near Cape Cod and is expected to continue moving northeast out into the Gulf of Maine. Some showers may be possible in eastern Windsor and Orange Counties Saturday night, however, recent trends have suggested steadier precipitation associated with the coastal system will stay east of the Connecticut River. Any showers that do develop in southeastern Vermont will be light in nature.

The second, higher confidence, system will be an approaching long wave trough that will track east from the Great Lakes region. The trough translates east into the St. Lawrence Valley late Saturday into early Sunday, with scattered rounds of showers. The trough slowly tracks east through the day Sunday reaching Vermont by late Sunday into Sunday night. While an isolated rumble of thunder with the shower activity cannot be ruled out, especially if an earlier shower can tap into better diurnal instability, chances are relatively low with poor mid level lapse rates, cool surface temperatures, and a lack of true instability. In all likelihood, the boundary will be a mess of scattered to isolated showers with some breaks in between, focused mainly over northern New York, and somewhat weakening as it moves east. Between both systems during the day Saturday, and most of Sunday, Vermont will be straddled between in a "no mans land" of dry and cloudy conditions. Chances for showers do not increase for Vermont until Sunday afternoon, though some isolated sprinkles or mist will be possible, especially in the higher terrain, due to low to mid level stratus clouds. Precipitation amounts will be light and have trended down in recent model runs, with probabilities of half an inch now below 50%. The higher amounts around a quarter inch will be in northern New York, primarily in the northern St. Lawrence Valley, and the spine of the Greens. The trough will pull away to the northeast heading towards Monday. As the trough occludes and drifts northeast, the parent upper low will continue to keep showers chances around with wrap around cyclonic flow. Clouds and shower chances near the International Border and northern New York will continue through the day Monday with seasonable temperatures in the low to mid 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Seasonable weather is expected to prevail throughout next week, with several chances for showers possible. As the upper level trough from this weekend exits the region, a few lingering showers will be possible into Tuesday, particularly across the higher terrain as broad cyclonic flow persists. A brief period of ridging is expected to build in for the middle of the week, bringing some drier weather. Additional shower chances look to arrive for the end of the week as another system moves through, although details are still a little uncertain at this time. Temperatures next week look to be quite seasonable, with high temperatures generally in the 70s to lower 80s.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions currently prevail across all terminals, and will continue for much of the forecast period with high pressure centered over the region. The only exception of VFR conditions will be the development of fog overnight at the more favored terminals. THe greatest confidence for IFR or lower will be at KMPV, although fog development may also be possible at KSLK and KEFK, generally after 07Z or so. Winds this afternoon continue to be light and northerly, less than 10 knots, trending calm and/or terrain driven overnight. Winds will become more southerly after 12Z towards the end of the forecast period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.