textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 121 PM EST Tuesday...

No significant changes have been made from the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 121 PM EST Tuesday...

1. Unsettled weather continues across the region today, with a period of drier weather expected tomorrow.

2. Widespread precipitation looks likely Thursday into Friday, with some wet snow accumulations possible for the higher terrain, although exact impacts still need to be determined.

3. Seasonably cool conditions with upslope showers this weekend, then trending drier into next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 121 PM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: The unsettled weather continues this afternoon as another shortwave moves through the region. The greatest chances for precipitation will be across the Adirondacks and northern Greens, particularly in the favored upslope locations. There may be enough instability to allow for a few heavier downpours or even some graupel, but for the most part light rainfall is expected with snow levels near summit level. Some of the upslope showers may linger into tomorrow morning, especially across the Northeast Kingdom, but overall tomorrow will feature drier weather ahead of the next system arriving late week. Temperatures to be rather seasonable through tomorrow, with daytime highs in the upper 30s to near 50 and overnight lows generally in the 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Confidence continues to increase in the likelihood of widespread precipitation across the region Thursday into Friday. A large scale upper level trough looks to build across the eastern CONUS, with surface low pressure centered in the Ohio Valley. As the initial low moves eastward, a secondary coastal low is expected to develop and strengthen, which will bring our chances for widespread precipitation. Although there is still some uncertainty regarding the exact timing and track of the system, it looks to be fairly progressive and consensus continues to grow amongst guidance as we get closer. Some of the biggest uncertainty has been and continues to be on expected precipitation type with this event. Higher elevations can expected to receive some wet snow accumulations with this event, but valley rain is expected for the most part, especially with the lack of cold air initially. Some snow may mix in at the lower elevations, particularly Thursday night into Friday morning, but accumulations are not expected. Another area of uncertainty is how quickly cold air advects into the region which could allow for some additional snowfall on the backside of the system, although there is still some uncertainty on amounts. As of now, snowfall totals look to be between 1-4 inches across the High Peaks of the Adirondacks and the spine of the Green Mountains Thursday and Friday. As previously mentioned, there is still some uncertainty, so while confidence has increased there are still some details that change over the next day or so. Temperatures are expect to trend cooler towards the end of the week, with highs generally in the 30s to low 40s by Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Upper level troughing will prevail for much of the weekend, leading to a mostly cloudy and cool stretch. Friday night, surface low pressure will be tracking northeastward across the Atlantic, resulting in northwesterly flow for northern New York and Vermont and potential for upslope showers, 30-65% chance precipitation Friday night and Saturday. As temperatures fall from the 30s at the start of Friday to the seasonably cold upper teens/20s by early Saturday morning, any potential precipitation would start as snow at higher elevations, while wider valleys would see rain become rain/snow mix or even snow as temperatures fall their lowest. Showers may linger into Sunday at higher elevations, likely drying out by Monday. Snow levels rise again each day as highs reach a seasonably cool mid 30s and 40s, but are expected to fall each night to around 1000 feet or even lower as temperatures dip into the upper teens to lower 30s. Several inches will be possible in the mountains, but anything in the valleys would likely be lighter and have a hard time accumulating. Heading into next week, a large surface high pressure looks to build into the region, bringing increasing sunshine and cold overnight lows.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 00Z Thursday...Mainly VFR is present as a weak frontal system moves across the airspace at this hour. Disorganized clusters of rain showers are moving through; based on radar trends, additional rain will only briefly bring a chance of reduced visibilities at most sites through about 04Z. Currently light surface winds are likely bringing marginal LLWS, with greatest confidence at PBG where relatively strong westerly flow at 2000 feet is present while METAR winds continue to be under 5 knots through the next couple of hours.

After 06Z, expect a trend to MVFR at higher elevation sites (SLK, MPV, EFK) due to lowering ceilings. A period of breezy west-northwest winds, with gusts possibly into the 20-25 knot range, is indicated at most terminals overnight. Given the relatively weak front and development of nocturnal inversion combating the cold air advection, confidence in gusts overnight are relatively low. Otherwise, modest 5 to 10 knot west- northwest winds will be common through the remainder of the TAF period, with any MVFR ceilings gradually lifting, most likely between 15Z and 18Z.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite RA, Definite SN. Thursday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely RA, Likely SN. Friday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA, Chance SN. Friday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN, Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.