textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 303 AM EDT Monday...

Light freezing drizzle is ongoing across portions of Vermont and northern New York. Snow showers are expected this afternoon, mainly across Vermont with generally a dusting to an inch of accumulation expected. However, high-res data now shows we could see 2-4 inches for the northern Green Mountains, including Mt. Mansfield and Jay Peak this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 303 AM EDT Monday...

1. Freezing drizzle possible this morning; snow showers possible this afternoon.

2. Active weather pattern continues this week with several rounds of snow and rain showers expected.

3. Multiple systems bringing a mix of rain and snow, followed by a brief period of abnormally cold weather expected to end the week.

DISCUSSION

As of 303 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: While precipitation has largely tapered off this morning, we are starting to see some light freezing drizzle across portions of the Northeast Kingdom in Vermont. Radar returns don't look like anything impressive but with the Green Mountains in the way, the radar is unable to sample the very light precipitation currently ongoing. The nighttime RGB on GOES 16 has continued to show a decrease in moisture, mostly within the DGZ, which confirms the high-res model trends of a lack of snow nuclei within the DGZ. This should continue to progress further south which will change over any falling precipitation to freezing drizzle through 10 AM or so before deeper moisture moves in from the south and we start to saturate the DGZ with ice nuclei.

Strong cold air advection is ongoing and will continue throughout the day today. Even with minimal heating due to plentiful cloud cover, weak instability should develop this afternoon which will help produce scattered snow showers across the region by largely focused across Vermont. The upper level trough is lagging behind the surface boundary which will keep our CWA within the best jet dynamics (left exit region) to help produce some decent mid-level dynamics. The trough placement is what should help focus the snow showers across Vermont with New York having a more difficult time due to increasing mid-level subsidence and drying. Overall, snow won't be heavy with accumulations generally between a dusting and one inch. That being said, convergent northwesterly flow should allow for the northern Greens to do quite well with 2-4 inches expected above 2500 ft. These snow showers will begin to taper off this evening as instability wanes but they won't fully shut off until early Tuesday morning as deep layer ridging begins to shift across the Northeast.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Tuesday appears to be the only dry day this week as deep layer ridging is expected to be situated across the region. Tuesday may also be our only glimpse of the sun for the coming week with plenty of cloud cover expected. On Wednesday, a weak shortwave trough will pass well north of the International Border. The best moisture and forcing is expected north of the border but we could still see some minor accumulations on Wednesday. A warm front will lift across the region Wednesday night into Thursday with a mix of snow and rain initially, changing to all rain in the afternoon before a short-lived dry slot is expected to develop. In this period of drier weather on Thursday, temperatures will climb into the mid 40s to mid 50s. A strong front will approach Thursday night and will be talked about further in key message 3.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Models continue to have good agreement for the system that pushes in from the Great Lakes region on Thursday, bringing a mix of rain and snow, with most of the snow across the northern counties and in the higher elevations. Directly behind this system a boundary moves in late Thursday night and into Friday. Models are continuing to shift to a warmer solution, bringing primarily rain with this system, which moves through by Friday afternoon. Behind this system we could see a brief unseasonable cool down Friday night with overnight lows in the teens to single digits before becoming more seasonal next weekend.

Overall, expect the weekend to be relatively dry as high pressure builds in with a chance of some terrain driven snow on Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 12Z Tuesday...Upslope flow continues today, combined with blocked flow will continue to produce IFR/LIFR ceilings at RUT and BTV thru 18z today. LIFR CIGS at MPV and EFK associated with upslope flow will linger through the late morning before lifting to IFR/MVFR. MVFR ceilings at PBG/MSS/SLK will stay in most of the TAF period with SLK seeing some periods of IFR. Winds gusts up to 20 knots through midnight, before decreasing. Scattered snow showers are possible between 16z-22z, which could produce brief IFR vis in the heavier activity.Winds will stay northwesterly throughout the day at all stations except MSS which will see northeasterly winds.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Chance RA, Chance SN. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Likely SN, Chance RA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely RA, Chance SN. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SN.

EQUIPMENT

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.