textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 230 AM EDT Thursday...

No significant changes were made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 230 AM EDT Thursday...

1. Dry weather with seasonable temperatures will continue through Friday.

2. Although exact details are still uncertain, confidence that we'll see periods of rain over the weekend has increased, especially in southern and eastern Vermont.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: We're in for a couple more pleasant fall days before rainier conditions arrive over the weekend. In the meantime, high pressure will dominate our weather, keeping the weather dry through the rest of the work week. Dense valley fog will dissipate by mid morning or so, giving way to another afternoon with ample sunshine and highs in the 60s.

Low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast will start to make its slow push northward tonight and Friday. While rain will remain well to our south, mid/high clouds will increase tonight and Friday. This will help to keep temperatures a little warmer than the past couple of nights, limiting frost formation to just portions of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom (where the growing season has ended). Therefore, don't anticipate any additional Frost Advisories tonight, but subsequent shifts will need to watch cloud and temperature trends closely. Friday will feature partly cloudy skies and highs in the 60s to near 70F. North winds could be a little on the breezy side, particularly in the Champlain Valley due to funneling.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Precipitation chances continue to increase for the weekend with this forecast package as deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to come into better agreement in bringing a developing low up along the East Coast on Saturday. The system then looks to meander around off the New England coast for a bit before finally shunting off to the east. While model consensus is on this overall pattern, exactly how far north/west the low approaches and how strong it becomes is still uncertain at this time. As noted by the previous forecaster, there remains considerable spread in potential QPF amounts; the 25th percentile vs 75th percentile range is 0-0.44in at BTV; 0.04-0.82in at MPV, and 0.13-1.50in at VSF (for 48-hr totals ending at 8 am Mon). Accordingly, PoPs have come up as well, particularly in southeast VT where 6-hr PoPs top 70% Sunday morning. There's still some uncertainty when/where bands of rain will rotate back into our region, but expect there will be waves of showers through the weekend.

This system will also bring gusty winds to the region this weekend. The NAM, in particular, shows a strong jet wrapping around this system, with 70-80kt at 850mb over/just off the MA/RI shore. This jet weakens some as it pushes inland toward our area, but guidance still indicates 50+ kt 850mb jet spreading over eastern and southern VT during the day Saturday. The GFS' winds are weaker, with 35-45 kt at 850mb, but either way, breezy conditions are looking likely over the weekend, especially over the higher terrain and on Lake Champlain. Temperatures will be cool as well; some places may struggle to get into the 60s during the day, especially in eastern/central VT. Anyone who has outdoor plans this weekend should stay tuned for updates and perhaps have a backup plan in place should the forecast continue to trend toward poor weather.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 06Z Friday...Outside of patchy valley fog, VFR conditions will prevail through the entire TAF period with skies remaining SKC. Periods of IFR/LIFR conditions are expected 06z-13z Thu in patchy fog in the climatologically favored river valleys, including SLK/EFK/MPV/MSS terminals. VCFG is also likely at BTV and perhaps RUT as river fog drifts over portions of the airfield. Winds remain light and variable through the entire forecast period.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for VTZ002-005-006- 008>011-016>020. NY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ026>028-035.