textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 255 PM EDT Sunday...

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 255 PM EDT Sunday...

1. The nor'easter exits the region tomorrow night, and conditions trend warmer and sunnier.

2. Next chance of showers will be from a cold frontal passage Thursday night into Friday.

DISCUSSION

As of 255 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: The nor'easter made "landfall" this morning on the Jersey Shore, continuing to gradually weaken. Due to this and its completed occlusion, the weakening process will continue. The low will begin to re-enter the synoptic circulation tomorrow and drift northeastward into the Gulf of Maine and the Canadian Maritimes. Even though the precipitation shield will become smaller and more isolated as it weakens, the showers will continue over the region as the center passes closer. The showers will exit tomorrow night as the low continues to push northeast. Even though the rain will end for Tuesday, the boundary layer flow will transition to northwesterly and become increasingly blocked as the inversion height lowers, and cloud cover looks to hold thick in many areas, especially across the upslope areas and northern Vermont. Drier air will eventually mix into the lower levels for Wednesday and the sun should finally return for everywhere, though high clouds will begin to increase in the afternoon from a storm system moving toward the region from the Midwest. Due to the sunshine, temperatures should rise into the 70s for most areas on Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure builds into our region from the south on Thursday providing us with the warmest day of the forecast period. Maximum temperatures will range through the 70s with some sites having near record warmth. Thursday night into Friday will bring our next chance for precipitation as a cold front will cross our region in that timeframe. Another ridge of surface high pressure will build into our area behind this front bringing additional dry weather, this time with cooler temperatures as the high builds into our area from Canada.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 18Z Monday...Scattered rain showers continue at our TAF sites today, with the greatest impacts at our southern and eastern TAF sites including BTV/RUT/MPV/EFK. Ceilings and vsby will mostly remain MVFR or better. Best chances for occasional MVFR conditions and HIR TRRN OBSCD during the daylight hours today will be at RUT and MPV, and mainly due to ceilings. Winds will generally be N to NE, with gusts 20-25kt becoming increasingly common during the daylight hours. During periods in which stronger wind gusts don't reach the surface, it appears that pockets of LLWS will be possible. MSS should be northwest of most of the shower and LLWS activity and is expected to remain VFR through the TAF period.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.