textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 231 AM EDT Tuesday...

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 231 AM EDT Tuesday...

1. Rain showers Thursday into Friday with snow showers possible on the front and back ends.

2. Unseasonably cold to start the weekend, then trending warmer with low chances for precipitation early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 231 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: The northward shift in model guidance continues for the Thursday night into Friday system, causing it to be mostly rain. A warm front moves through Wednesday night into Thursday morning and it will bring the chance for a few snow showers. A slushy coating is possible across northern areas and the higher terrain but precipitation will be limited and temperatures will be around and above freezing during its passage. A dry slot looks to develop for much of the day on Thursday, though lingering showers are possible across northern areas. Temperatures rise well above freezing on Thursday, likely even in the mountains. This looks to melt most of the snow outside the higher elevations. A round of rain will pass through Thursday evening and night with the cold front, and could briefly end as snow. The rain and snowmelt will cause river rises, but with QPF currently looking to be around a half inch and dew points mostly topping out in the low 40s, flooding is not expected. However, some ensemble guidance does bring the East Branch of the Ausable to action stage in Ausable Forks. The thing to watch is the speed of the cold front. It looks to move through relatively slowly but quick enough to keep the heaviest rain from remaining over the same location. However, a slower passage could cause slightly higher river rises.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Saturday will be breezy and cold under strong cold air advection. High pressure will keep conditions mostly dry, but highs will only be in the 20s to low 30s. When combined with blustery north/northwest winds, wind chills in the single digits and teens look likely. Thankfully this cold is short lived and we should start warming up for the 2nd half of the weekend. As has been the trend, we'll remain under fast zonal to northwest flow through early next week. Several shortwaves will slide through this upper flow, but as per usual, long range models disagree on timing, placement, and intensity of these and any associated precipitation. Have therefore stayed with WPC's forecast for the remainder of the forecast period.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 12Z Wednesday...Other than local MVFR ceilings at KEFK, VFR conditions expected to prevail through the entire TAF period. KEFK is currently OVC028, and these lower clouds should lift and dissipate by 15z. Ceilings to remain AOA 4000 ft thereafter. Mid clouds start increasing late this afternoon into the evening, then gradually lower overnight. Winds light and variable this morning will trend toward the W/SW 5-10 kt with localized gusts to 20 kt at KMSS.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA, Chance SHSN. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

EQUIPMENT

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.