textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 223 AM EDT Sunday...

No significant changes made.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 223 AM EDT Sunday...

1. A cold front will move through Monday bringing some chances for rain, northwesterly breezes, and a reinforcing shot of cooler temperatures.

2. Becoming seasonably mild through the rest of the week. A series of weak fronts will bring periodic chances of light rain but no significant events are expected.

DISCUSSION

As of 223 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Today will be a seasonable day with temperatures in most areas at least reaching 60 to the mid 60s. River valley fog will end early this evening as the combination of some building high level clouds and increasing southeast to south flow will develop. A prefrontal trough will approach later this evening. It will try to produce a few showers as moisture lifts north ahead of it. However, there's very little to work with, and so perhaps a stray shower north of Route 11 in our area of responsibility could occur.

The actual frontal boundary will shift east beyond midnight through Monday night. There remains little change with regard to the strong dynamical forcing that will be present, but marginal moisture parameters. A few post-frontal showers could take place, especially along the international border as the vort max associated with the upper trough arrives with sufficient moisture to still allow some activity, particularly over northwest facing slopes. The bulk of the cold air will not arrive until well after the rain has exited, so there will be limited, but not impossible, chance for a few flakes over our northern summits.

The air mass coming in for Monday is quite chilly. Brisk northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph and temperatures lingering in the 50s, except in the Upper Valley, will make it feel very much like Autumn. Minimum temperatures for Monday night range from the mid 20s to mid 30s with some upper 30s lingering near Lake Champlain. Winds will keep blowing over most areas, and this should preclude fog or frost. The core of the coldest air will start pulling away Tuesday, but it will be a chilly day in the upper 40s to mid 50s and steady winds remaining. Heading into Tuesday night, high pressure will roll in, and this should allow winds to slacken and radiative cooling to take over. Still, ensemble guidance is relatively stayed with upper 20s to upper 30s, and did nudge things a couple degrees towards some colder solutions. There could be some fairly widespread frost Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure will exit east into the Atlantic. This will allow our temperatures to moderate. Over the course of the latter portion of the weak, there will be plenty of northern stream systems that will make their way across the mid-latitude westerlies. None of them are particularly strong, but may offer some reinforcing shots of cool air and light rain. So rather seasonable conditions are expected. Heading into the extended time frame by next weekend, a fairly broad ridge will amplify across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 06Z Monday...River valley fog development is evident across our climo favored locations, like KEFK, KMPV, and near KSLK. Probabilistic GLAMP is unusually stayed. There's some reason for hesitation, but nothing that says fog won't develop further. Given the satellite appearance, added prevailing fog at least for KMPV. There should be a combination of building high clouds and some increasing south to southeast flow around 10z. So utilized primarily TEMPOs for KSLK and KEFK. Then mainly VFR after 10z and started introducing at least some variable winds or southeast flow with the upper level cloud deck. Then, as we reaching 14z-16z, south to southeast winds increase towards 9 to 14 knots sustained with gusts 17 to 24 knots possible, especially for KBTV and KPBG. Winds will begin to slacken around 22-23z, but will likely stay around 5 knots into the overnight. A few showers could approach the St. Lawrence Valley at that time as well, but confidence is not high enough for a mention at KMSS yet.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.