textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 224 PM EDT Thursday...

No major changes. Confidence in frost development in the Champlain Valley has lowered for Friday night.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 224 PM EDT Thursday...

1. Cool and unsettled conditions will follow a cold front heading into the weekend, with chances for frost.

2. Unsettled weather expected much of next week with multiple chances for precipitation.

DISCUSSION

As of 224 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front currently over the Champlain Valley will continue to slowly push east this afternoon with some light shower chances through this evening, before tapering off by early tonight. A few light showers may pass through extreme southern St. Lawrence County as a weak subtle shortwave riding behind the cold front shifts south. Overall rainfall today will be light with only a few extra hundreths to near a tenth in the Northeast Kingdom by this evening. Cyclonic flow associated with a overarching upper level low behind the frontal system will keep some slight chances for showers Friday, mainly in the St. Lawrence Valley as our flow pattern becomes northwesterly, and cooling air aloft, drives steepening lapse rates leading to some upslope rain chances.

Temperatures will fall to near freezing tonight for areas outside the Champlain Valley and Upper Valley in Windsor County, where lows will be in the mid to upper 30s to near 40. While the climatological growing season has not started for the entire region yet, anyone with sensitive plants or agricultural interests getting a head start, will need to monitor the forecast for frost/freeze conditions. Highs will remain on the cooler side for Friday with values in the low to mid 50s.

CAMs have begun to denote a weak shortwave passage Friday night which will increase cloud cover and some chances for light valley rain and mountain snow. Total precipitation amounts will only be a few hundreths as this will be a weak and fast moving system. Temperatures will be flirting with frost criteria in the Champlain Valley, however, given the cloud cover, and possible shower activity, confidence and overall chances for reaching frost conditions have decreased Friday night. However, it should be noted that after May 1 (the Champlain Valley climatological start to the growing season), should overnight temperatures near 32-36F, frost/freeze headlines may be needed as we begin the frost/freeze program here at BTV. Temperatures for the rest of the weekend will be about 5-10 degrees below normal with daytime highs in the upper 40s to low 50s, and overnight lows near freezing to the mid 30s. Better chances for any CPV frost will be on Saturday night, with similar temperatures to Friday night, but with a lack of precipitation.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Unsettled weather is expected heading into next week as the region remains under fast, progressive flow aloft. Several rounds of light showers will be possible as weak disturbances pass through, but the exact location and timing of any showers will be difficult to pinpoint. A more robust frontal system looks to pass through the region towards the middle of the week as the pattern becomes more amplified, which would likely bring more widespread and significant precipitation to the region, but there is still some uncertainty regarding the evolution of the system at this point. Temperatures look to be fairly seasonable for next week, with high temperatures in the upper 50s and 60s and overnight lows in the 30s and 40s.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 18Z Friday...Variable flight conditions continue across the region this afternoon, ranging from VFR to IFR, as showers continue to work their way across the region. As the afternoon progresses, ceilings will gradually lift, although MVFR is expected to linger until after 00Z with terminals improving towards VFR between 06Z and 12Z. Winds will generally be light throughout the TAF period, 10 knots or less, and will continue to become more west/northwesterly this afternoon and remain that way for much of the forecast period.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. Patchy frost. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Patchy frost. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.