textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 944 AM EST Friday...

The Winter Weather Advisory has expired as the heaviest snow has ended across the Advisory areas.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 944 AM EST Friday...

1. Widespread upslope snow showers Saturday, gradually tapering off Sunday.

2. High confidence for dry weather and above normal temperatures next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 944 AM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: For the weekend, cyclonic northwest flow will prevail under an upper level low. However, for today, the region will be in an area of subsidence between shortwaves so it will be mostly dry, though a couple upslope flurries will be possible in the mountains. A potent embedded shortwave will pass south tomorrow and tomorrow night, bringing widespread showers. While they will be most concentrated in the typical northwest flow upslope areas, very marginal instability will develop in the lower 10,000 ft in the atmosphere due to cold air aloft and solar heating. This will cause the precipitation to trend more convective, especially Saturday afternoon. Therefore, snow showers will be able to survive crossing the terrain and should pass through the downslope areas like the Connecticut River Valley, though likely in a lighter form. While temperatures will rise above freezing below 2,000 ft, and likely reach 40 in the lowest points, temperatures will drop significantly in any of the showers. Therefore, even though consistent snow levels will likely only be down to around 1,000-1,500 ft, a period of graupel or even brief wet snow will be possible all the way down into the valleys. However, any continuous accumulations should generally be limited to above 2,000 ft. The showers will gradually become less and less widespread heading into Sunday, and they should be done by Sunday evening. Accumulations by the end should be in the 1-4 inch range above 2,500 ft, with mostly brief coatings that melt below that. The lowest accumulating snow will fall Saturday night. Moisture off Lake Champlain will enhance the showers in the parts of the Champlain Valley and Greens, but the more convective nature may prevent the formation of distinct bands.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Deterministic and ensemble guidance are in strong agreement that an 2-3 standard deviation ridge of high pressure will be centered to the south and west of the North Country next week. Temperatures will start seasonably mild with highs in the 40s on Friday with temperatures warming a few degrees each day. Highs by Friday will warm into the mid 50s which will be 3-7 degrees above normal. Some of the deterministic guidance is trying to flatten the ridge on Friday with a strong shortwave but the likelihood of this scenario seems pretty low considering just how strong and amplified the upper level ridge is forecasted to be. Should the ridge break down, then it's possible we see some rain chances Friday into next weekend but again that's a very low confidence scenario as dry weather seems the most likely case at this time.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 12Z Saturday...Conditions will steadily improve through the morning as we see an area of low pressure move to the east. Currently, we are seeing a mix of VFR at northern terminals and MVFR at southern terminals The idea is that MVFR conditions will be possible south of KBTV through 14Z with an improvement to VFR thereafter as precipitation taper off. However, there could be some slightly heavier precipitation that could impact KRUT with brief IFR visibilities due to falling snow. The remainder of the day will be pretty quiet in terms of aviation with VFR conditions and light northerly winds.

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHSN, Likely SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.