textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 228 PM EDT Monday...

Temperatures for today have been reduced, and the chances for snow showers in the Northeast Kingdom increased. Otherwise, temperatures on Thursday have been trending warmer with northward shifts in track. No additional changes were needed.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 228 PM EDT Monday...

1. Isolated to scattered snow showers expected later this afternoon and evening, with cold temperatures tomorrow morning.

2. Warming up for the midweek with a pair of systems with light precipitation.

3. Rain Thursday night into Friday followed by brief cold.

DISCUSSION

As of 228 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Vermont and northern New York have been shrouded in cloud cover. Later this afternoon and evening, an inverted surface trough and weak surface instability coincident with passage of an upper trough axis will cause coverage of snow showers to increase. Embedded heavier elements are possible, but most activity will be fairly light. A quick coating of snow up to localized 1-2" amounts are possible, with this most likely in the Northeast Kingdom of Vermont. Higher elevations may observe intermittent activity, and have greater chances for 1-3" of snow, especially northern summits. Eventually, dry air does win out. Snow showers will gradually taper to the summits overnight. Northwest winds will bring in cold air that will push low temperatures into the teens to lower 20s to open up Tuesday. Tuesday will at least be dry, with moderating temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Early Wednesday morning, a positive tilt trough will shuffle east. Surface low pressure will reside in far northern Quebec Province with the tail end of its cold front just nosing into northern New York and northern Vermont. Typically, these systems have their dynamics well removed from the region, but there's a somewhat favorable alignment of a jet streak just south and a reasonably defined axis of deformation/frontogenesis. Moisture is still lacking, though. But some light snow showers will be possible along the international border. Cool air back behind this front will be short-lived, with deep southwesterly flow taking hold during the afternoon. Temperatures will start climbing into the upper 30s to mid 40s on Wednesday.

Then, a warm front will angle northwards Wednesday night into Thursday. There could be some light snow. Then a transition to rain will take place as we enter the warm sector. Overall impacts appear minor, and there's some degree of uncertainty to the track speed and intensity which affects Thursday afternoon. Thursday could feature some brief drying as the warm front pulls away, or rain showers may start creeping in towards evening. Thursday's high temps will likely rise into the mid 40s to mid 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 3: The northward shift in model guidance continues for the Thursday night into Friday system. Temperatures rise above freezing behind the warm front on Thursday, likely even in the mountains. An areas of rain looks to develop ahead of and with the cold front. This looks to melt the snow outside the higher elevations but with relatively low QPF, low dew points, and low SWE, flooding is not expected. Temperatures drop pretty dramatically behind the cold front and the highs should occur around midnight for most places. Daytime highs look to be in the 20s and 30s on Friday, before temperatures drop back into the single digits and teens Friday night. Plattsburgh has very low hanging fruit for a record low Friday night, with temperatures only needing to drop below 10 to set it. Across the lake in Burlington where there is a much longer period of record, the record low is -5.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 00Z Wednesday...Conditions are slowly improving across many of our TAF sites this evening, as light snow shower activity continues. Conditions range from MVFR at SLK/MPV/BTV/EFK and RUT to VFR at MSS/PBG with mostly VFR visibilities, except some lingering MVFR at EFK/MPV. Sounding data suggests lowering cigs toward IFR again at RUT around 04Z this evening, feel the probability of this occurring is 40-60%, so have utilized a tempo group to cover this potential. Next chance for IFR would be EFK and MPV this evening in light snow and lowering cigs, but feel given latest trends, this is a 30 to 40% probability, so have mostly kept out of taf attm. Otherwise, any MVFR cigs at SLK should improve to VFR by midnight with VFR conditions trending at all sites by 12z Tues and prevailing all day. Winds are generally from the northwest at 4 to 8 knots overnight, before shifting to the southwest after 21z Tues at 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible. Likely SHSN, Likely SHRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA, Chance SN. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

EQUIPMENT

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.