textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...

No significant changes have been made with this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...

1. Mild today and Friday with frost possible tonight.

2. Rainfall expected across the region this weekend as a warm front lifts north on Saturday followed by a cold front on Sunday.

3. An unsettled pattern anticipated for days 4 thru 7 but the probability of widespread hazardous or significant weather is low.

DISCUSSION

As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: It'll be a foggy start to the morning after widespread rainfall was observed across the region yesterday. A shallow decoupled surface layer has allowed for patchy fog to develop this morning. Wind at 1000 ft have been steadily increasing to around 15 knots over the last few hours but the latest high-res soundings show a decoupled layer between 200 and 500 ft. As the sun begins to rise and we see even the slightest bit of mixing, the boundary layer winds will be quick to scour out any residual fog. A mix of clouds and sun will be seen today with highs slowly climbing into the mid to upper 50s by late afternoon. With light winds and mostly clear skies expected overnight tonight, widespread frost is expected to form. Most of the frost is likely to occur in areas that haven't surpassed their median date of the last spring freeze so we don't anticipate and frost headlines tonight. However, we are within a few a degrees of frost formation within the Champlain Valley so be sure to pay attention to the forecast this afternoon in the case even more widespread frost is expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A warm front will lift north on Saturday is expected to bring a slug of rainfall to the North Country. The latest model trends have been to keep the majority of the moisture across the Mid- Atlantic and southern New England with more scattered activity up in our neck of the woods. It should be noted that the individual perturbations of the ensemble guidance are split near 50/50 in indicating some heavier precipitation may shift further north. After a break late Saturday into Sunday morning, a cold front will bring another round of showers to the region. Overall rainfall totals don't look to be anything too impressive with seasonal temperatures and moisture expected. Ensembles show all values being within one standard deviation which gives good confidence in a beneficial and not super impactful period of wet weather this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Mid/upper lvl trof remains anchored acrs the Great Lakes into the ne CONUS for days 4 thru 7, resulting in below normal temps and periods of unsettled wx. Latest trends for the late Sunday into Mondays system have been to shift the axis of better moisture/lift southeast of our cwa associated with a positively tilted mid/upper lvl trof axis. Still anticipate showers during trof passage on Monday and cool pocket aloft with increasing instability parameters. Highest pops wl be mountains and parts of southeast VT on Monday. Weakening 1024mb high pres tries to build into our cwa by Tues, but current progs show this falling apart as mid/upper lvl trof remains strong acrs our cwa. If high pres and associated cold thermal profiles can build directly overhead, areas of frost would be possible Tues night, but current progs show the potential for bl winds and clouds. Active west to northwest flow conts for mid to late week with next system and potential additional showers arrive late Weds into Thurs. Temps mostly in the 50s and 60s for highs and lows generally in the mid 30s to mid/upper 40s through the period.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 06Z Friday...Extremely challenging tafs this morning with current flight categories ranging from LIFR at BTV/RUT, IFR at EFK, MVFR at PBG/SLK and VFR at MPV and MSS. Patchy fog/low clouds have developed under a broken to overcast mid/upper level cloud deck, while boundary layer winds are increasing. Feel IFR/LIFR at PBG/BTV will only be an hour or two, given increasing southwest flow, which is confirmed by KCXX VAD 925mb winds of 15 knots. Thinking IFR or lower conditions linger for thru 10z at RUT and EFK with potential intervals of IFR cigs/vis at SLK/MPV. All sites should improve to VFR by 10z this morning with developing southwest to westerly flow and drier boundary layer conditions. Winds shift to the west/northwest at 5 to 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots by 15z today and continue until sunset. Any low clouds should transition into a mid/upper lvl cloud deck at 10,000 to 15,000 feet with VFR through 06z Friday.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.