textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday...

No significant changes were made to the forecast. Breezes remain today as a cold front moves through the region bringing sharply cooler conditions for the end of the week.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday...

1. Temperatures trend lower today but remain 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages for many locations before trending sharply cooler for Thursday. Some locations outside the Champlain Valley may experience some frost Thursday night.

2. Breezy winds continue today and tonight as a front sweeps through the region bringing some chances of showers as well.

3. Chances for showers continue at times early next week while temperatures trend a bit warmer.

DISCUSSION

As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees cooler today than yesterday, but remain 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages. Warmest spots will be in southern Vermont where there will be potential for more heating ahead of the boundary. Highs in the 70s are forecast with low 80s for southern Vermont locations. Northwest flow will dominate behind the front bringing sharply cooler temperatures for Thursday and Friday with highs likely in the mid/upper 50s to around 60 degrees , then 60s respectively. This will be around 10 degrees below seasonal averages on Thursday before trending back to near normal by Friday. Temperatures continue to moderate over the weekend back to around seasonal averages with highs near 70 degrees for the Champlain Valley. Thursday night, high pressure is favored to be overhead with temperatures likely falling below 40 degrees in the Adirondacks and across northeastern Vermont. With a very dry airmass over the region, frost potential will rise.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Winds will be breezy today with flow turning northwest behind a cold front. Gusts will likely range 20 to 25 mph for most locations with up to 30 mph for typically windier locations like the Hwy 11 corridor in northern New York and along Lake Champlain. A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for the broad portion of Lake Champlain. Gusts will likely linger over Lake Champlain tonight before decreasing Thursday with high pressure moving overhead. Showers chances will continue this morning and remain possible along the front as it swings through today, but amounts will generally be light and less than 0.1".

KEY MESSAGE 3: There remains some notable spread in potential for showers both on Sunday and Monday. Generally the 00Z guidance has shifted chances for rain slightly, such that Sunday is more likely to be dry and Monday more likely to be showery as an upper level ridge departs and a weak low pressure area slides across our region. The potential for rain on Sunday is higher early in the day, tied to a band of mid-level frontogenesis lifting northeastward across our region. Therefore, midday onward conditions should trend dry. That being said, it remains very possible that precipitation is spotty or non-existant given the potential that the ridge of high pressure in place causes precipitation to be mainly virga. It also appears rain on Monday (Memorial Day) is favored for the morning, although again the model spread is high enough to expect this forecast to change. Therefore, keep abreast of the forecast if you have holiday plans; it will probably not be an all day rain with a progressive westerly upper level pattern and lack of a stationary boundary. All in all, while rain could impact outdoor activities somewhat, thunder chances are minimal through this period. Precipitation will probably not be hydrologically significant with rainfall amounts mainly ranging from about 0.1" (reasonable low amount) to 1" (reasonable high amount) before we move back into a drier pattern. With chances for showers decreasing moving into Tuesday, temperatures will tend to rise above normal, currently forecast to reach the low to mid 70s following a couple of days with highs mainly in the 60s.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 12Z Thursday...VFR conditions prevail this morning except for temporary MVFR ceilings at MSS and MVFR ceilings prevailing at SLK for another few hours before improving. Very spotty showers are expected this morning, especially in Vermont; have maintained prob 30 at RUT and EFK where chances for a shower are relatively high. A diffuse cold front is moving through uneventfully through 15Z, with southwesterly winds expected to turn westerly and then northwesterly through the remainder of the day with gusts of about 20 to 25 knots. Winds will then shift northerly towards 00Z, and gusts should continue at sites like BTV and MPV through the remainder of the period with continued cold air advection.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

MARINE

As of 315 AM EDT Wednesday...

A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Broad Waters of Lake Champlain. Gradient winds are expected to come up after sunrise bringing more consistent northwesterly gusts around 25kts over the broad waters. As a result, have opted to keep the Lake Wind Advisory going despite the respite in wind gusts. Tonight, flow turns more northerly and aligns with the major axis of Lake Champlain favoring increased gusts up to 30kts and waves building towards the southern shores. Much lighter winds are expected Thursday with high pressure building over the region.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.