textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 254 PM EDT Thursday...

No significant changes with this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 254 PM EDT Thursday...

1. Chances for afternoon showers will continue throughout the week, before drier conditions return towards Sunday.

2. Several rounds of showers are expected next week but significant weather is not expected.

DISCUSSION

As of 254 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Upper level trough and low pressure will remain over our region through Saturday. Scattered afternoon showers are expected each day, varying in intensity based on potency of shortwaves passing through. Tricky to time which day will have the best chance for showers, but presently looks like Saturday may have the most showers. Sunday will trend drier as upper level trough finally slides eastward and away from our area. Temperatures will be a bit cooler than seasonal normals through the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Deep layer ridging will make a brief appearance on Monday bringing sunshine, light winds, and seasonal temperatures to the North Country and northern New York. This period of dry weather will be short-lived as a shortwave trough in the northwesterly flow aloft flattens the longwave ridge and drives a cold front through the region Monday night into Tuesday morning. This should spark a few showers but no thunderstorms or impactful weather are expected with this system as we will seriously lack deep moisture. Thereafter, a series of low amplitude shortwaves are expected to move across the region through the second half of the work week. Periods of light showers seem plausible through much of the week with ample period of dry weather between rounds of showers. However, if you are looking for an extended period of dry weather, next week does not look favorable for that at this time.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 18Z Friday...Isolated showers are likely this afternoon and evening until around 03Z-05Z Friday. Any shower could bring with it visibilities 4-6 miles and MVFR level clouds. Chances for afternoon showers will continue Friday and Saturday before drier conditions return towards Sunday. Overall cloud layers this afternoon vary and fluctuate around 1300-5000 feet above ground level. A general clearing trend is anticipated into the evening, which can already be seen beginning on satellite imagery. As high pressure noses into the region tonight after recent (in the case of MSS, heavy) rainfall, we anticipate patchy and dense valley mist and fog to develop overnight. This afternoon's southerly winds 5-15 knots are expected to turn more westerly this evening with the passage of a weak cold front, then drop to light and variable overnight. This should allow SLK, MPV, and EFK to see visibilities drop in mist and fog, as low as 1/2 to 2 miles by 07Z-09Z Friday, with other sites potentially seeing some 3-6 mile mist as well. Main limiting factor for fog will be the lack of a strong high pressure overhead and if any of the current lower clouds linger into the night to block radiational cooling. Conditions are likely to return to widespread VFR levels by 15Z-17Z Friday as winds increase out of the northwest 5-10 knots.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Labor Day: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.