textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 227 PM EDT Sunday...

No significant changes at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 257 PM EDT Sunday...

1. Pleasant weather conditions will continue through midweek. However, localized and isolated showers are possible Monday afternoon, followed by a chance of more widespread showers Monday night and Tuesday primarily in southern areas.

2. Next chance for showers Thursday afternoon into the overnight. Temperatures will start out above normal then trend back towards seasonal normals over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 257 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: No impactful weather (eg. minimal chance of thunderstorms, heat, heavy rain, dense fog) is anticipated through Wednesday. Temperatures look largely seasonable with minimal advection/light winds through the period. There will be some variability in humidity, modulated by a broad low pressure/frontal system to our south. There is a strong consensus that this system will pass far enough to our south for us to see only light rainfall (or even none), primarily affecting southern Vermont, during the Monday night-Tuesday timeframe. We have backed of PoPs and QPF along with some sharpening of the gradient from roughly south to north (tapering quickly to minimal rain in the northern Adirondacks and points north/west along with northern Vermont). It appears the mid- level circulation of the low pressure area will be fairly flat with westerly flow aloft, such that both the thick cloud cover and rain footprint stays mostly south of our area leaving us with a good chance of continued fair weather through this event. Amongst the latest cycle of model guidance, only the FV3 shows more widespread/northward coverage of rain Monday night into Tuesday, which appears like an outlier solution at this time. There could also be a pop up, slow moving isolated shower ahead of this rain Monday afternoon, associated with a subtle inverted trough and enhanced instability near the International Border in New York and Vermont. A plethora of dry air aloft makes this risk low and chances of thunder nearly zero.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Start of the period will feature temperatures above seasonal normals, then trend back towards normal at the end of the period. A cold front will move through the region, Thursday night into Friday, with drier and more seasonable conditions expected heading toward the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage, with the potential for any stronger storms to be monitored as we get closer as there is still plenty of uncertainty regarding the exact strength and timing of these features.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 00Z Tuesday..VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast period. Winds will be light and variable, and then become southeast to south at 5-9 knots 15z-23z. Winds at KMSS will be channeled along the St. Lawrence Valley, keeping the direction northeasterly there. Some high clouds overnight should help keep fog out of the terminals as well as the drier air which is now in place. Mostly mid clouds at 7000-10000 ft agl will move in tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.