textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 225 PM EDT Monday...

No significant changes were made with this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 225 PM EDT Monday...

1. Other than a few isolated showers this afternoon and evening, drier weather is expected for much of this week, along with a warming trend.

2. Warm and dry conditions will continue through the end of the week, with increased chances for showers possible towards the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 225 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Isolated showers continue to drift southward across the region this afternoon. There's a bit more robust activity in Quebec that may make it across the international border a bit later this evening, but overall, expect showers to wane once the sun sets. This will set us up for clearing skies, light winds, and fairly decent radiational cooling overnight. Low level moisture from recent rains should allow valley fog to develop late tonight/early Tuesday morning, especially in the Adirondacks and river valleys in eastern VT. Lows will mainly be in the upper 30s to upper 40s, but some of the sheltered cold locations in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom could drop into the mid 30s. Hence some patchy frost will be possible in these areas, though areal coverage is not enough to warrant any sort of frost headlines.

High pressure will settle across the region thereafter, leading to a stint of drier weather for a good part of the week. Temperatures will exhibit a gradual warming trend; while Tuesday's highs will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s with a bit of a north breeze, Thursday will feature highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s with west to southwest winds. Can't totally rule out a few spots hit 90F on Thursday, particularly on the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks due to downsloping of the SW winds. Luckily dewpoints will remain comfortable in the 40s and 50s, so nights will be pleasantly cool and the afternoons won't be oppressively humid.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Upper level ridging will continue to remain over the region towards the end of the week, continuing to bring warm and dry conditions. Daytime high temperatures look to climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s on Friday. Towards the weekend, chances for showers look to increase as several weak disturbances look to push through the region, but there is plenty of uncertainty regarding timing and the overall pattern this far out. Despite the precipitation chances, temperatures this weekend look to remain seasonably warm with highs in the 70s to low 80s.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 00Z Wednesday...Conditions are VFR at the moment, with a few light showers near KEFK. North winds of 4-9 knots will trend light and variable overnight. Some fog is possible, but conditions are much drier today, and there will be increasing winds just off the surface approaching sunrise. Noted 3SM and FEW001 at KSLK and KMPV from 05z-10z, but it could be a shorter window of time than indicated. After 12z, northwest winds will increase towards 5-10 knots with gusts 16-20 knots possible through 22-23z before winds subside following sunset. Tomorrow will be dry, with some fair weather cumulus around 6000-9000 ft agl.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.