textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 250 PM EDT Monday...

No major changes have been made to the forecast. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories remain in effect through tomorrow morning as additional rounds of strong winds will be possible as a strong cold front moves through the region.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 250 PM EDT Monday...

1. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories continue through Tuesday as additional rounds of gusty winds will be possible as a strong cold front pushes through the region. Isolated to scattered outages are possible.

2. Additional rain will move across the region this evening. River rises are expected, but flooding is not expected at this time.

3. Sharply colder temperatures will arrive tonight, with light snowfall accumulations possible. Slick travel conditions will be possible tomorrow morning. Some lake effect snow will be possible across northern New York during the day tomorrow.

4. Temperatures moderate back toward seasonal normals for late week, with a few chances for rain/snow showers.

DISCUSSION

As of 250 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: After a period of gusty winds this morning, there has been a brief lull this afternoon ahead of the approaching cold front. As this strong cold front moves through the region this evening, additional rounds of strong winds are expected with a strong low level jet overhead. There is still some uncertainty as to how efficiently the winds will be able to mix down to the surface due to precipitation, but some of the latest guidance continues to support advisory criteria across Vermont ahead of this feature.

Behind the front, enhanced mixing will result in better mixing of the 50-55 knots southwest to west flow behind the strong cold front. Widespread gusts of 35-50 mph are expected tonight into Tuesday morning. After noon, the strongest low-level winds will likely be south of the area and the intensity of the LLJ will begin to decrease. Given the intervals of gusts, changing wind direction on Tuesday, and the soggy soils at lower elevations, scattered power outages appears likely, especially for northern slopes of the Adirondacks. The High Wind Warning and Wind Advisories across the region currently remain in effect through tomorrow morning given the additional rounds of strong winds expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2: After the first round of precipitation this morning, a pronounced dry slot has kept the region relatively dry this afternoon. As a strong cold front approaches the region, precipitation is expected to develop once again. Moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible along the front due to the strength of forcing, but the fast moving nature of the system will limit overall liquid precipitation amounts, since precipitation will switch over to snowfall for a brief period tonight. In general, overall precipitation amounts expected with this feature will generally be between 0.5 and 1.0 inches, with 0.25 to 0.5 inches expected with the upcoming round of precipitation. These amounts will lead to river rises on local rivers, but no flooding is anticipated, especially with limited snowmelt expected. The Northeast River Forecast Center forecasts currently keep all area rivers below flood stage, with only some locations on the Otter Creek, Raquette and Ausable expected to reach bankful. While most rivers have already lost their ice, some locations in far northern New York and eastern Vermont may need to be monitored for any ice movement on waterways where ice still remains.

KEY MESSAGE 3: After temperatures warming into the 50s and 60s this afternoon, with some spots in the St. Lawrence Valley nearing 70, temperatures are expected to sharply drop behind the cold front moving through this evening. Anywhere between 20-30 degree drops are expected, but may just miss the flash freeze component by not quite getting to below freezing with the drop. Steadily cooling temperatures will continue though, and conditions will largely be below freezing by Tuesday morning. With these colder temperatures, rain will transition over to snow overnight into the early morning hours. A brief period of wintry mix will be possible during the initial transition, but any sleet or freezing rain will be minor if it does occur. Total snowfall amounts on the backside of the front will generally be 1 to 2 inches across northern New York and less than an inch across most of Vermont, with some locally higher possible in the spine of the Green Mountains. Depending on the level of drying from strong winds, there could be some black ice or some slick roads due to snow on Tuesday morning, making for potentially hazardous travel. In addition to the snow associated with the cold front, some lake effect snow looks to develop during the day on Tuesday as cold air rushes in, bringing some additional accumulations to northern New York. Guidance suggests that the band should be quite narrow, with the residence time in our forecast area rather brief before shifting southward. For St. Lawrence County, lake effect snow will probably add about another 1-3" in far southern areas before exiting the region.

KEY MESSAGE 4: Although Wednesday will be cold, temperatures should gradually increase through the end of the week, with highs in the 30s and 40s and lows in the teens and 20s by the weekend. High pressure will keep us dry for mid week, but then shower chances increase as a couple of upper shortwave troughs scoot through the nearly zonal flow aloft. There's still some uncertainty with the timing of these systems, so have stayed close to WPC's forecast for Wednesday and beyond.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 00Z Wednesday...High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories continue through Tuesday as additional rounds of gusty winds will be possible associated with a strong cold front and additional rain pushing through the region. Sharply colder temperatures will also arrive tonight, with light snowfall accumulations possible. Some lake effect snow will be possible across northern New York during the day Tuesday.

Multiple aviation hazards expected through much of this TAF period. Southerly winds are currently gusting 15-35 knots at all sites, and we anticipate these gusty winds to continue and increase into the overnight period. Wind gusts 25-45 knots out of the south and southwest are expected from 00Z-09Z Tuesday, then several sites could see another resurgence of winds 12Z-18Z Tuesday, particularly at KMSS (gusts 40-45 knots) where southwesterly winds will be easily channeled through the St. Lawrence Valley. Gusts look to remain 20+ knots for all sites through 00Z Wednesday, gradually turning more westerly with the passage of a cold frontal boundary. LLWS also remains a threat for most sites through about 06Z-12Z Tuesday, perhaps lingering at SLK even longer.

Widespread rain showers will move spread northeastward across the region this evening. Generally anticipate visibility 3-5 miles in rain, which may be heavy at times. Temperatures fall sharply overnight with the cold frontal passage. Rain will transition to snow for many sites over the next few hours, with some sleet and/or freezing rain briefly mixing in during the transition. Snow will wind down quickly by daybreak Tuesday, but a couple of lake effect streamers may bring additional snow to mainly KSLK and perhaps KMSS during the day Tuesday. Visibility 2-4 miles in any snow. Ceilings currently a mix of VFR and MVFR (except for MPV which has ceilings 500-700 feet above ground level) will likely lower to all MVFR by around 03Z-06Z Tuesday, then improve to VFR around 09Z-12Z Tuesday, though some of the mountain sites could hold onto lower ceilings longer. Most likely location (other than MPV) of some IFR level ceilings will be at SLK which could see occasional dips to IFR cigs in rain showers over the next few hours.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN, Chance RA. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA, Chance SN. Friday Night: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Chance SN. Saturday: VFR. Chance SN, Chance RA.

CLIMATE

A daily record high temperatures and calendar day precipitation total are possible at KMSS (Massena, NY) on March 16th. The present forecast of 67 would beat the previous record of 65 set just last year. Consensus forecast for KMSS is about 0.50-0.75", which would beat 0.44" set in 1994.

EQUIPMENT

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for VTZ001>011-016>021. NY...Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ026-028-029-035- 087. High Wind Warning until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ027-030-031- 034.