textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 151 PM EST Monday...No significant changes were made to the forecast, but did increase winds late Tues into Tues Night and fine tuned pops/qpf and snowfall for the next 12 to 36 hours.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 151 PM EST Monday...

1. Mountain snow showers through tonight will produce localized areas of slick travel across the higher terrain.

2. Above normal temperatures prevail through Wednesday with periods of gusty southerly winds expected, especially Champlain Valley and higher terrain.

3. Widespread light to moderate snowfall Wednesday night into Thursday, likely starting as rain in the broad valleys.

4. A much colder airmass arrives for the end of the week and onward, though temperatures don't fall far below climo.

DISCUSSION

As of 151 PM EST Monday... .KEY MESSAGE 1: Mountain snow showers through tonight will produce localized areas of slick travel across the higher terrain.

Current radar shows snow showers impacting most of northern NY into the central/northern mtns of VT this aftn. Latest NY Mesonet winter weather product indicates 12 hour snow accumulations of 0.5 to 1.0" across the SLV thru 18z. Given near freezing bl temps and limited snowfall rates, most treated road sfc's are just wet this aftn. The marginal bl temps and unfavorable shear/wind parameters has minimized the lake enhanced potential today. GOES-19 water vapor imagery does indicate several more pockets of mid lvl moisture and embedded s/w energy progged to move acrs our cwa through this evening. Each piece of energy and moisture wl produce mostly trrn focused snow showers acrs northern NY and the mtns of central/northern VT. Progged southwest to west flow of 30 to 45 knots wl continue to produce the CPV precip shadow with limited qpf/snowfall anticipated thru tonight. Have continued with schc/pops valleys to likely/cat pops in the mtns, with snow accumulations of a dusting to 3 inches possible, along with some localized areas of slick travel. Weak ridging develops aft 06z with decreasing moisture profiles, resulting in drier conditions with some breaks possible in the overcast. Temps drop back into the 20s to near 30F by Tues morning.

.KEY MESSAGE 2: Above normal temperatures prevail through Wednesday with periods of gusty southerly winds expected, especially Champlain Valley and higher terrain.

Deep south to southwest flow develops ahead of developing mid/upper lvl s/w trof acrs the northern Plains/western Great Lakes on Tues into Weds. This warm southerly flow wl help advect progged 925mb temps in the 1-3C range by 12z Weds, while 850mb temps hover near 0C. These values support a period of much above normal temps, with highs Tues/Weds in the mid 30s to mid 40s and mild overnight lows in the upper 20s to upper 30s, especially on Tues night. Did trend the Tues night lows toward the NBM 75th percentile. As a 987mb low pres and associated sharp cold front approaches our western cwa late Tues into Weds the 925mb to 850mb wind fields strengthens. Progged 850mb jet is 45 to 60 knots from the southwest, while the 925mb jet is 35 to 45 knots from the south at 03z Weds. Sounding analysis at BTV indicates inversion height at 2000 feet agl with top of the mixed layer winds around 40 knots and favorable channeled flow, so anticipating localized gusts 30 to 40 mph here in the CPV and up to 60 mph acrs the summits late Tues into Tues night. Track of sfc low pres and wind profiles/directions wl result in highest pops acrs the northern Dacks and central/northern Greens, while our precip shadow conts in the CPV and lower CT River Valley. Given the warming thermal profiles, snow level wl be increasing from 1000 fee to 2000 feet by Weds with just a minor/non impactful accumulation possible by Weds.

.KEY MESSAGE 3: Widespread light to moderate snowfall Wednesday night into Thursday, likely starting as rain in the broad valleys.

As has been the trend this winter, a primary low passes by to the north over Quebec Wednesday into Wednesday night, putting the region in the warm sector. The difference this time is that it is a northern stream moisture starved clipper, and despite being forecast to be sub 990 mb, the warm air advection will not be overly strong. Therefore, it looks like a mix of light rain and snow develop late Wednesday into Wednesday evening as the cold front pushes into the region. A secondary low will gradually develop along this front, increasing the precipitation rates and intensity. However, it's development will only be modest before it passes out to the northeast. As the cold front pushes through, the precipitation quickly changes to snow Wednesday night and snow looks to continue through much of Thursday. Advisory type snow seems to be the most likely, with a few inches expected for most areas. NBM probabilities of four or more inches of snow are generally in the forty to sixty percent range. Very dry air on the backside and temperatures too cold to support dendrites will lower snow ratios a bit. During Wednesday night, a quick freeze is possible for untreated surfaces as temperatures quickly fall below freezing, likely during precipitation.

KEY MESSAGE 4: A much colder airmass arrives for the end of the week and onward, though temperatures don't fall far below climo.

Large scale troughing builds east into the region for late week and into the start of next week, bringing a return to the winter feel. Temperatures will be much colder than they have been the last few days, but they will not fall much below climatological normals. For example, the coldest forecast NBM low through Monday for BTV is 9 Thursday night, only four degrees below normal. This colder pattern looks to stick around through next week.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 00Z Wednesday...Light snow showers are decreasingsouth to north with most of the activity remaining towards the Canadian border. Still, intermittent showers will create periods of IFR/MVFR at SLK/MSS/EFK with lower chances elsewhere. Champlain Valley terminals will largely remain VFR with some showers lurking in the vicinity. LLWS will also be decreasing as the low level jet exits the region. In generally, conditions will slowly improve overnight with another round of showers moving across in the 04-10Z time frame. Flow will largely remain south to southwesterly overnight shifting more southerly after 12Z.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHSN. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Likely SN. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.

EQUIPMENT

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.