textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 238 PM EDT Monday...

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 238 PM EDT Monday...

1. Periods of showers tonight into tomorrow.

2. Heavier and more widespread rain Wednesday night with some embedded thunderstorms.

3. Showery weather Friday trending drier by early next week as upper low pressure departs to the east.

DISCUSSION

As of 238 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: The surface high that brought the lower humidity and sunshine today will gradually retreat to the east going into the day tomorrow, as a low will attempt to push a warm front through. However, it will fail to fully gain entry into the region and a stationary boundary will end up getting stationed over or just south of the region into Wednesday.

An area of steady rain will push into the region late tonight and tomorrow morning, but most areas should just see an area of relatively light stratiform precipitation and only pick up a couple tenths of an inch, with the Northeast Kingdom possibly remaining completely dry. However, an area of elevated convection may just clip southern Vermont and St. Lawrence County and could lead to locally higher totals of 1-1.5 inches. A few rumbles of thunder are possible in those areas as well. However, it should occur over several hours and the threat for flash flooding is very low. The best synoptic forcing exits in the morning and despite the boundary remaining around, there should only be a couple scattered showers going through the day, but it will likely be dreary.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A more dynamic low pushes through Wednesday night into Thursday morning, bringing rounds of heavy rain. This one currently looks to make it just far enough northeast that the center passes through. Therefore, the associated elevated convection looks to be able to enter the region and bring periods of heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms. However, due to the temperature profiles and the nighttime occurrence, everything should remain elevated and not be severe. It will be continued to be watched if the dynamics from the storm would be strong enough to cause a couple storms with hail or gusty winds to break the inversion at the surface. Currently, most areas should receive around an inch of rain, but convective enhancement will cause locally higher totals. GEFS/EPS/CMCE probabilities of receiving more than an inch range between 25-50 percent and the probabilities of 2 inches are below 10 percent, but the convective enhancement is not taken into account in those. The flood threat is low at this point. The one thing that will continued to be watched if the axis of heavy convective rain lines up with the axis tonight, but even then there will be multiple days in between and marginal totals.

KEY MESSAGE 3: An upper low will swing across eastern Maine Friday/Friday night, bringing yet another round of showers, especially over the northern high terrain. This feature will not make much eastward progress over the weekend, keeping us under cyclonic flow. There may be just enough moisture wrapping back into the region to keep the threat of showers around, especially in the afternoons, but don't anticipate a washout by any means. Temperatures may be a little on the cooler side, especially on the higher summits, but this will depend on how much eastward progress the upper low is able to make. Have stayed with the NBM/WPC forecast for now since we're a ways out, but adjustments may need to be made as the weekend draws closer.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR conditions remain across the airspace. An area of thicker clouds with bases between 4 and 7kft is nearly stationary across the southwestern half of the County Warning Area, splitting terminals roughly in half with MSS/SLK/RUT within this cloudy zone. With only some passing high clouds, MPV and EFK will be susceptible to another round of fog as long as the lower clouds remain to the south and west; the geography suggests EFK will be more favored to have a longer duration of fog after 06Z.

The aforementioned boundary will also roughly mark where scattered showers are most likely to roll through after 06Z and especially after 12Z. The light rain will lead to further lowering of ceilings with best chance for MVFR ceilings at SLK and RUT for at least a short period during the morning. Visibility in showers will tend to be as low as 5-6SM with a low chance of temporary IFR conditions. Winds will remain light and variable through the TAF period at all sites, generally at or below 5 kts.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.