textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 233 PM EDT Thursday...

Added patchy fog after midnight tonight across parts of the area.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 233 PM EDT Thursday...

1. A widespread rainfall expected tonight into Friday, but probability of any flooding is very low at this time.

2. Drier and warmer weather expected this weekend with no significant or hazardous conditions anticipated.

3. Notable warm-up for the beginning of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 233 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: GOES-19 mid lvl water vapor imagery is showing a deep/closed 700-500mb cyclonic circulation near KBGM with deep 700 to 300mb southerly flow acrs the eastern Dacks into VT. This southerly flow, combined with mid/upper lvl trof becoming negatively tilted wl help to advect Atlantic moisture back into our cwa overnight. Regional composite reflectivity mosaic shows north-south orientated rain band acrs central/eastern VT, which should eventually advect westward as mid/upper lvl trof becomes negatively tilted by this evening. The highest rainfall total wl be along the favorable east-southeast upslope areas of the Greens and eastern Dacks, where localized amounts over 1.0" are possible. Some downslope shadowing is likely acrs the NEK and western slopes of the Greens, due to east/southeast 925mb to 850mb flow. Given the lack of instability and pw values <1.0" associated with cold core system, rainfall rate wl be in the 0.15" to 0.30" per hour in the strongest rain band over central VT this evening. This combined with recent dry spell, wl result in no hydro related issues. Light and variable winds and near saturated boundary layer conditions wl lead to some patchy fog development areawide tonight, especially acrs the higher trrn. Lows generally in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

On Friday we continue under cyclonic east/northeast flow thru the morning hours, before ridging slowly builds into our cwa in the aftn. I have the highest pops acrs central/eastern VT during the morning hours with chc pops in the aftn, especially central/northern mtns. Sounding data indicates some weak instability and lingering moisture in the 925mb to 700mb layer wl be enough to develop some aftn showers. Areal coverage wl be in the 20 to 35% range with highest probabilities over the trrn. Highs with some breaks in the overcast wl be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Weak mid/upper lvl ridge builds into the ne conus for Saturday, before embedded s/w energy approaches the SLV by 00z Sunday. This energy shears apart in the fast westerly flow aloft and soundings show a dry layer from sfc to 700mb, a few light rain showers are possible late Sat aftn into Sat night. Progged 925mb temps warm 15-17C by 21Z Sat, supporting highs well into the 70s to locally near 80F possible in warmer valleys. Additional s/w energy drops south acrs our northern cwa, including the NEK on Sunday morning. This energy wl have minimal moisture and instability, but given northwest flow under modest caa a few mountain showers are possible on Sunday. Definitely not a washout and areal coverage of measurable precip wl be <15%. Weak caa lowers progged 925mb temps btwn 13-15C, wl support highs in the mid 70s north to lower 80s acrs the lower CT River Valley on Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Ridging builds into the region from the southwest for the beginning of next week, and surface high pressure becomes centered near Bermuda. This will easily cause the warmest temperatures of the year so far. By Tuesday, temperatures should be in the 80s for most places, with a run at 90 possible for the valleys. NBM probabilities range between 50-75 percent for the lower Connecticut River Valley and between 25-50 percent for the Champlain Valley away from the lake. Surface low pressure is expected to track well to the northwest, so any wobbles in storm track should still keep the region in the warm sector, though the exact extent of the heat remains uncertain. Some showers and thunderstorms could come through earlier in the afternoon and keep the temperatures slightly lower. Dew points will increase into the mid-50s to around 60 by late Tuesday. While the heat indices will not be overly high for the summer, it will be much more noticeable since it will be the first heat event of the year. A strong cold front will come through mid- week with more potential showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 00Z Saturday...IFR/LIFR ceilings expected to prevail at most terminals for the first 12 hours of the TAF with widespread showers continuing. The exception will be KMSS, which is currently VFR but should lower to MVFR by 04z, and potentially IFR thereafter. There some indications that KMPV and KEFK may see ceilings lift to MVFR after 06z, but probability of this is low. Visibility generally 3-5SM in rain. Showers begin to subside after 08z, but patchy fog will develop and continue until 12z. There's still uncertainty as to the extent of the fog, but anticipate visibility to mainly be 2-4SM. Conditions start to improve after 12z, with fog dissipating and ceilings to MVFR, and eventually scattering out; a return to VFR conditions by the end of the TAF period is most likely at KBTV/KPBG/KMSS/KRUT. Isolated to scattered showers are possible in the afternoon, mainly over the higher terrain. Winds light and variable through the entire period.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.