textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 732 PM EDT Sunday...

Showers and thunderstorms are shifting southeastwards. We've received numerous small hail reports, and a few localized wind gusts of 35-50 mph have taken place near the town of Saranac and over Diamond Island. Activity will wind down with the loss of daytime heating. Tweaked PoPs and sky cover based on the latest trends.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 223 PM EDT Sunday...

1. Showers will continue through this afternoon and evening, with drier conditions expected heading into the week ahead.

2. Drier weather along with a warming trend is expected for the latter half of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 223 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A shortwave pushing through the region will continue to bring additional showers this afternoon and evening. With cold air aloft and diurnal heating, a few rumbles of thunder will be possible this afternoon as well as the potential for some pea-sized hail within any stronger showers. Precipitation amounts throughout the day are expected to remain fairly light, with a few tenths of an inch possible for most locations. Overnight lows will be on the cool side once again, with temperatures dropping into the upper 30s to near 50. With warmer temperatures and lingering clouds, frost is not expected overnight. Additional isolated shower chances will be possible throughout the day Monday, driven by steep lapse rates and diurnal heating. The overall coverage is expected to be fairly limited during the day tomorrow, with very little rainfall accumulation expected. Temperatures during the day tomorrow will be more seasonable in comparison to the last few days, with high temperatures in the 60s to low 70s. Another cool night will be possible Monday night, which may lead to some additional frost concerns, especially in the Adirondacks and the Northeast Kingdom. Conditions are expected to trend drier and more seasonable as the week progresses as ridging slowly begins to build into the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure builds across the Northeast CONUS on Wednesday and lingers through at least Friday morning. The result will be a few dry days and warming temperatures. A coastal low pressure system will develop off the Carolina coast and lift northeastward through this period as well, but the ridge will keep it shunted well to our south and east. Temperatures will warm into the mid 70s to mid 80s by Thursday, continuing into Friday. There are some indications that the wider valleys, including the Champlain and lower CT Valleys, could see highs rise into the upper 80s, but don't anticipate any 90F readings at this time. Luckily, dewpoints look to remain fairly comfortable, in the 40s and low/mid 50s. Shower/thunderstorm chances increase late Friday with a potential cold frontal passage. Timing of this boundary and how quickly it and its associated precipitation push south of our region is still uncertain. Right now, Friday night and Saturday morning look the most likely timeframe for precipitation, but some guidance indicates showers could linger into Sunday. Have stayed with the WPC/NBM forecast for the entire extended period given the uncertainty.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 00Z Tuesday...Showers and thunderstorms are moving southeast across the region, but are starting to gradually decay. The strongest activity will approach KRUT between 00z-01z, but with the convection declining, MVFR visibility is and lightning in the vicinity seem the most likely outcome. Another batch of activity will arc south overnight with another trough about 04z-09z, but will likely have limited impact. In between, fog may briefly develop if there are any breaks in cloud. For now, noted VCFG at KEFK and KRUT, and then 4SM BR at KSLK before clouds increase with ceilings 1500-4000 ft agl with the secondary batch of showers shifting southwards. Winds will become light and variable, and then north or northeast at 5 to 10 knots beyond 12z. Skies will trend FEW or SCT with perhaps a few cumulus clouds in the afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.