textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 231 PM EDT Saturday...

Chances for gusty winds are rising especially for the St Lawrence Valley and along the Highway 11 corridor of northern New York on Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 234 AM EDT Sunday...

1. Dry conditions continue today before a warm front moves through the region tonight bringing widespread rainfall, potentially gusty winds Monday, then a series of fronts moving through bringing multiple rounds of showers and a few thunderstorms.

2. Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected next week, along with several chances for precipitation.

DISCUSSION

As of 234 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Our next storm system is currently moving into the Great Lakes region. It's warm front will begin impacting northern New York bringing some showers this afternoon before tracking northeast spreading rain across the rest of northern New York and Vermont. Dry conditions today and southerly flow will help temperatures warm into the 50s by the afternoon. Tonight, a strong low level jet will move into the region coincident with precipitation. With rain falling, strong wind gusts are less likely outside of the peaks. One important change in model output has been for a northerly shift in the initial portion of the low level jet with 35-65kt speeds projected south of the Canadian border and 70+kts north of the St Lawrence River in Canada. This has a couple of implications: the first being that thunderstorm chances will be lower and limited to around close to the Canadian border of northern New York and decrease in wind threat overnight. The period of concern has shifted to 8AM to 2PM Monday where we will be in the warm sector of this large system and continued strong SW winds around 45-55kts at 850mph. With precipitation decreasing and flow aligning with the St Lawrence Valley, have nudged wind gusts up to around 40mph for a broad swath of northern New York and the northern Champlain Valley. Rainfall amounts have shifted with lljet changes and have increased in general. Now looking at around 0.25" in the western Champlain Valley where shadowing will be most pronounced and 0.4-0.75 for other broad valley locations and around 1" for the southern St Lawrence Valley across the Adirondacks and the Greens into portions of northeast Vermont.

The relative cold front moves through monday night into Tuesday with chances of thunderstorms expected. The front itself is favored to elongate over the region rather than push sharply through resulting in the storm track to stagnate over northern New York and Vermont. This will set up daily chances of showers that are discussed below. QPF through Tuesday night will generally range from 0.5-1.5" across the region with lowest amounts in the Champlain Valley and southern Vermont. Peaks could see around 2" in this time period. Additional thunderstorm chances are possible Wednesday as energy rides along the boundary and isentropic lift increasing shower chances area- wide.

KEY MESSAGE 2: The large scale pattern for next week continues to support zonal flow aloft across our region, bringing a few continued chances for showers throughout next week. A low level boundary looks to remain situated near the International Border, which will have a large influence on temperatures and precipitation for the middle of next week. The current temperature forecast continues to support unseasonably warm temperatures for the middle of the week, with daytime high temperatures climbing into the upper 60s and 70s Thursday, with a few locations possibly nearing 80F. In comparison, average high temperatures of this time of year and generally in the low to mid 50s. While there will be several chances for precipitation, it looks to be quite showery and scattered in nature, with a few rumbles of thunder possible. As always, there is low confidence is the exact timing of any of these features at this time range, so trends will need to be monitored as we get closer.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 12Z Monday...VFR conditions are expected for the next several hours across all terminals, with mostly clear skies present across the region. A warm front will approach the region towards 00Z, bringing widespread precipitation and lower ceilings. Rain overnight tonight will generally bring periods of MVFR conditions, both for visibilities and ceilings. Winds are currently light and variable and/or calm across the region, and will continue through most of the morning before becoming more southerly, although generally less than 10 knots for most of the afternoon. Winds are expected to increase after 00Z toward the end of the TAF period, with gusts of 20 to 30 knots possible. Widespread LLWS is expected to develop towards the end of the forecast period as a low level jet moves overhead.

Outlook...

Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Definite SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA.

EQUIPMENT

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.