textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 307 AM EDT Wednesday...

Main change to the forecast early this morning is to account for a band of snow that is stalling over parts of the Champlain Valley, specifically over the Burlington airport and southern Chittenden County. This snow is expected to sink southward over the next few hours, with total very localized overnight accumulations under this band of a dusting to half inch. Otherwise, forecast is on track with scattered light snow showers continuing northern NY.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 307 AM EDT Wednesday...

1. A warming trend is expected through the end of the week with some light rain and snow showers Thursday.

2. Unsettled weather continues over the weekend into next week, but no strong systems are expected.

DISCUSSION

As of 307 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: After a dry and chilly middle of the week, precipitation chances return Thursday into Thursday night. Southerly flow will increase ahead of a weak low pressure system tracking well to our north, which will drag a weak front through the northeastern US. Thursday's temperatures will climb into the upper 30s to low 40s within the warm air advection regime, before cooling back into the 20s and low 30s by sunrise Friday.

Given these temps, expect variable ptype that will be dependent on timing and elevation. A rain/snow mix is forecast late Thursday, transitioning to light snow by Friday morning as temperatures drop. Given the continental track of the low, moisture advection will be limited, keeping overall accumulations very light. Snowfall accumulations will be restricted to the northwestern facing slopes of the northern Adirondacks and northern Greens, while the Champlain Valley and much of eastern Vermont will struggle to get any accumulations.

Behind the system, the warming trend will continue through the end of the week. By Friday, temperatures will be a few degrees above seasonable normals.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A series of fast moving systems are favored Saturday into Sunday and again later next week as mid/upper level flow goes more near zonal in the base of a long wave trough. WPC timing for systems is currently early Saturday into Sunday and again by Wednesday. Southwest flow Saturday will promote a change from snow showers to rain by late morning as temperatures climb to around seasonal levels in the mid/upper 40s to near 50 degrees, but some brief mixed precipitation cannot be ruled out as thermal structure of the lower atmosphere modifies from cooler conditions Friday night due to warm air advection. SW flow may result in warmer conditions than what WPC is forecasting with error bounds potentially in the lower to mid 50s for lower elevations Saturday afternoon. Winds may be stronger than the current forecast early Saturday through late Saturday morning as southerly flow channels along the Champlain Valley with NAM projecting a 60kt low level jet traversing the region; global guidance is much less on jet strength. Gusts in excess of 35 mph may briefly occur Saturday morning should mesoscale guidance be closer to the truth. Sunday, a sharper cold front is expected to move through from a more north-south trajectory with the parent low rapidly ejecting into northeastern Canada. A cool-down to below seasonal averages Sunday night into Monday is favored before seasonal conditions return through mid week.

Otherwise, upper level jet energy is likely to linger keeping the relative storm track over the Northeast and southern Canada. Another system is projected to move through by mid next week, but timing variations and character of this system are suspect at this time scale.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 12Z Thursday...VFR conditions are anticipated through this forecast period except for some MVFR CIGs at EFK and brief MVFR potential at MPV from northwest flow clouds. Skies are clearing with ample sunshine anticipated before high clouds return this afternoon. CIGs thicken and lower overnight, but not expecting flight degradation. Northerly flow will transition southwesterly to southerly through the day remaining generally less than 10kts. MSS could channel in the St Lawrence Valley and have some gusts to around 15kts.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA, Chance SN. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA, Chance SN.

EQUIPMENT

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.