textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 819 PM EST Thursday...An evening update to adjust PoPs, QPF, temperatures, weather, and snow amounts. Snow remains persistent in the Champlain Valley and other portions of northern Vermont this evening as upper level low pressure moves across northern New York. Northwesterly wind direction is resulting in scattered to widespread snow showers across these areas. This snow, combined with a potential burst of moisture and snow showers early Friday morning (6 AM - 9 AM) we're now expecting an additional dusting to an inch for most areas of northern New York as well as central and northern Vermont, with 1-2 inches possible in the St. Lawrence Valley, the northern Greens, and the Northeast Kingdom by Friday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 130 PM EST Thursday...

1. Temperatures are falling sharply across the region and any wet surfaces have potential to freeze, especially untreated surfaces and unpaved roads. Cold overnight temperatures are expected.

2. Next chance for precipitation comes Friday night into Saturday as upper level trough moves over the area.

3. An unseasonably cold and unsettled pattern looks to continue next week with multiple chances for snow, but no system looks overly significant or impactful.

DISCUSSION

As of 130 PM EST Thursday...

.KEY MESSAGE 1: Snow will gradually taper off to snow showers this evening, with some additional snow accumulations possible in the more favored upslope locations. Temperatures will drop off sharply with minimum temperatures nose diving into the single digits above and below zero. Conditions will also become breezy out of the west, so apparent temperatures will dip into the teens below zero, close to -20.

.KEY MESSAGE 2: Next chance for precipitation comes in the Friday night into Saturday timeframe, along with a warm up for the daytime hours on Saturday. An upper level trough will cross our area, bringing some light snow to the region. Temperatures on Saturday afternoon influenced by warm southerly flow will reach the lower 30s areawide.

.KEY MESSAGE 3: The end of the weekend Sunday will see a return to below average temperatures and unsettled weather. A long wave trough will continue to nudge closer to the region Sunday into Monday with continued southwest flow, but west/northwest flow aloft. A few shortwaves will be able to sustain at least a chance of snow across northern New York and perhaps the spine of the Greens through mid-week, but snow accumulations look rather unimpressive, outside of southern St. Lawrence County where a lake effect band may develop. Surface southwest flow in the southern St. Lawrence Valley will air in the development of a potentially prolonged lake effect band Sunday through Wednesday. The band on average looks to remain south of the region, however, it will waffle about the St. Lawrence/Lewis/Jefferson County borders. Upper level cooling this week will keep the region on the cold side with highs falling from the 20s Sunday into the teens and single digits by mid week. The coldest period will be Monday night through Tuesday night following an arctic front Monday. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday night will fall into the single digits above and below zero, with the coldest hollows of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom potentially pushing -10F. Snow across northern New York will likely aid in further temperatures falls. Southwest winds will also be breezy both nights which will drive wind chills into the negative teens across the Adirondacks and negative single digits elsewhere. Tuesday night appears to be the coldest of the two, but regardless, this may be the coldest air we have seen this season thus far with 925mb temperatures around -20C.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 00Z Saturday...Upper level low pressure is currently centered over northern New York as surface low pressure shifts eastward across New Hampshire. Snow will gradually taper off to snow showers this evening, with some additional snow accumulations possible in the more favored upslope locations. Temperatures are falling sharply across the region and any wet surfaces have the potential to freeze, especially untreated surfaces.

Ceilings currently vary greatly this evening, anywhere from 1600 to 7500 feet above ground level. Sites currently with MVFR levels at the moment will see a gradual improvement throughout the next 6-12 hours, though MVFR ceilings may linger at mountain sites towards 18Z Friday, and KMSS is starting to hint at a brief period of snow showers (vis 4-6 miles) and ceilings around 800-1000 feet through 03Z Friday. Overall, snow showers will linger across the forecast area over the next few hours, lowering visibilities to around 2-5 miles, though briefly lower vis is possible. Showers linger longest at KSLK and KMPV, potentially until 12Z-15Z Friday.

Winds out of the northwest 5-15 knots gusting 15-25 knots will continue to be breezy over the next 12-18 hours, turning out of the west and southwest for many sites throughout the night tonight and throughout the day tomorrow. KSLK is most likely to have a quick period of low level wind shear around 10Z-12Z. Models are indicating there will also be a plume of moisture crossing the forecast area around 09Z-15Z, which may bring a short-lived resurgence of snow showers and MVFR level ceilings during this period. Following this, we anticipate mainly VFR conditions 12Z-18Z onwards with even some breaks in the clouds throughout the day Friday.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. Chance SN. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Martin Luther King Jr Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

EQUIPMENT

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.