textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 303 AM EDT Tuesday...

No significant changes were made with this forecast issuance. A Fire Weather Watch remains in effect for western Vermont and all of northern New York today.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 303 AM EDT Tuesday...

1. Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across much of northern New York and western Vermont.

2. A prolonged period of widespread rainfall is expected for the latter half of the week, along with cooler temperatures, bringing fire weather concerns to an end.

3. Unsettled and cooler conditions are expected to linger through the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 303 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: We'll see yet another dry day today as we remain under the influence of ridging positioned just to our east. Meanwhile, low pressure will approach from the west, helping to tighten the pressure gradient. The result will be increasingly gusty winds today, especially from the Champlain Valley westward. Given the very dry air in place, this sets the stage for Red Flag conditions over northern New York and western VT, where a Fire Weather Watch remains in place. Frequent gusts of 25 mph are expected, and we wouldn't be surprised to see localized gusts approaching 30-35 mph as the very dry airmass will allow for efficient mixing. This will also serve to warm temperatures above much of the guidance. Have bumped up today's temperatures toward the NBM90th percentile, resulting in highs in the 70s areawide. With dewpoints likely in the low to mid 30s, minimum relative humidity values of 20 to 30 percent can be expected, with some spots perhaps dropping down into the teens.

For areas east of the Champlain Valley, the ridge axis will be closer and thereby winds not quite as gusty as further west. Still, relative humidity values will be low, and since we're still pre- greenup, another Special Weather Statement for heightened fire concerns seems reasonable.

Regardless of whether you're under the Fire Watch or the Special Weather Statement, please refrain from setting any fires. A burn ban remains in place in New York. If you have any plans to burn in Vermont, please check with your local fire warden or fire department.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A slow moving upper trough will slowly spin over or just north of the Great Lakes as we head into the latter half of the week. This will drag an elongated surface trough/frontal boundary across our region late Wednesday through Thursday, which will bring a welcome widespread soaking rainfall. A general 0.50-1.00 inch is expected, with higher amounts possible along/east of the central and southern Greens and also the High Peaks of the Adirondacks and the southern St Lawrence Valley. After another mild day on Wednesday, Thursday will be much cooler due to cloud cover and rain. The system starts to shift east of our region Thursday night, allowing rain to wane to just a few lingering showers overnight into Friday. However, temperatures will continue to fall, so showers could well mix with and/or change to snow, mainly above 1500-1800 ft. Light snow accumulation will be possible over the highest summits. Highs on Friday will only be in the 40s to low 50s, with a brisk west/northwest wind adding to the chill.

KEY MESSAGE 3: An upper level trough will remain over our region from Friday night through Tuesday night. This will bring us cooler than normal temperatures and several chances for light rain or snow showers. Snow showers will be possible mainly for elevations above 2000 feet. Highs are favored to be in the upper 40s to mid 50s, and lows in the 30s.

One thing to note is that the climatological start to the growing season in the Champlain Valley begins May 1st (this Friday) when we expect overnight lows to be near Frost Advisory criteria (32-36F) both Friday night and lesser so Saturday night. Cloud cover may limit the overall cooling that takes place, but conditions may be favorable for frost development. We will monitor this in the coming days.

AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 06Z Wednesday...The primary aviation concern will be developing gusty winds today and associated areas of wind shear and turbulence. VFR conditions prevail at all sites for the next 12 to 24 hours with light terrain driven winds under 5 knots through mid morning. Winds increase from the south at 5 to 15 knots with localized gusts 15 to 25 knots expected after 15z Tuesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...Fire Weather Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for VTZ030-033. NY...Fire Weather Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NYZ202>205.