textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 152 AM EST Sunday...

Rainfall prospects for Tuesday are somewhat higher, and temperatures for Wednesday have been trended upwards to near record warmth in the St. Lawrence Valley.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 152 AM EST Sunday...

1. Temperatures becoming warmer heading into November.

2. A cold front will move through the Northeast late this week bringing breezes and periods of rain possibly Thursday through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 152 AM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Little in the manner of impactful weather is expected over the next several days. High pressure will move offshore, and that will allow warm air to gradually filter into the region under steady south to southwest flow. This will bring 50s today, and then 60s tomorrow. It'll still be on the dry side, but winds will generally be lighter where the lowest humidity values will be. Nighttime temperatures will also trend warmer, with only cooler hollows of sheltered valleys east of any mountain slopes below freezing tonight. There's still a tilted mid to upper level ridge that will be positioned to our west through about Tuesday. As it begins to translate eastwards, depending on the positioning of an upper vort, the surge of warm, moist advection could become collocated with marginal synoptic forcing. This would result in an area of clouds and light rain, mainly along the international border Tuesday into Tuesday night. Not every model scenario depicts rain, and so PoPs are mainly at or below 50 percent at this time.

Once the upper ridge is offshore, temperatures will climb into the mid 60s to lower 70s for Wednesday in response to somewhat tighter pressure gradients as a surface low tracks over far northern Quebec Province. A few daily record highs may be in striking distance. Ushering in the warmth will be south winds gusting around 15-25 mph with localized observations around 30 mph, especially in the broader valleys.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Model consensus favors a full meridional trough ejecting out of the Plains Wednesday night with a cold front passing through the Northeast between Thursday and Friday. Timing spread has narrowed a little, but model discrepancies remain on how fast the high pressure shifts eastward, the timing of the front itself, and the strength of frontal dynamics. Some models are stalling the boundary in the vicinity of Vermont streaming ample moisture across the region while others are more progressive with flow resulting in more distinct rounds of rainfall. While the details are sparse, most guidance agrees that there is a good shot at an extended period of rain chances with the trailing upper low becoming at least partially cut off. This would promote lingering shower chances through the weekend potentially into early next week. The details that are more predictable are continued warm temperatures under southerly flow Thursday with some southerly breezes ongoing as well. Beyond Thursday, temperatures are favored to cool back towards seasonal averages with coldest air locked well north of the region.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 18Z Monday...We'll see a quiet TAF period lasting through the next 24 hours. Mostly clear skies with moderate winds will persist through the day today. Some high clouds move in during the overnight hours. Those clouds combined with moderate low level winds will keep any fog formation at bay. Tomorrow, VFR will continue with cloud decks looking to stay above 8000ft

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance RA. Thursday: MVFR. Chance RA. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely RA. Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance RA.

CLIMATE

Temperatures could approach record highs on November 4th with the greatest chance at KMSS.

Record | Forecast 71 (2022) | 71

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.