textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 233 AM EDT Sunday...

No significant changes have been made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 233 AM EDT Sunday...

1. Mostly dry weather will continue through Tuesday.

2. Widespread rain expected Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Mostly dry conditions expected late week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 233 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A few rain showers continue across the region this hour, but will gradually diminish through the morning. Although an isolated shower or two may be possible today, especially across the high terrain, dry weather is expected to prevail. Temperatures today will be on the cooler side, generally in the upper 60s to low 70s. Clearing skies will allow for efficient radiational cooling tonight, with lows falling into the 40s and 50s, with some of the colder hollows dropping into the upper 30s. A brief period of ridging looks to build in for Monday, continuing to bring mostly dry conditions throughout the day. A weak cold front pushing through Monday night may bring spark some light rain showers, particularly near the Canadian border.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A rather vigorous shortwave trough will be speeding through the longwave pattern Wednesday night and Thursday. This feature is expected to entrain an impressive plume of moisture from the Gulf with PWAT values surging to 2+ inches (2-3 standard deviations above normal). This will allow a period of moderate to heavy rainfall to move across the region during the overnight hours. However, moist adiabatic lapse profiles up to 200 mb leave much to be desired in terms of instability which should inhibit any thunderstorms potential, Thus, we expect more of a beneficial rainfall event with the hydrological issue appear unlikely at this time. A strong 100+ knot 500 mb jet and 30-45 kt LLJ will help to quickly push this system to our east with most of the rainfall exiting the region by daybreak on Thursday.

A broad upper level trough will remain across the region Thursday and Friday which could set the stage for some isolated to scattered afternoon showers but additional rainfall will be light as the deep plume of moisture will be shunted eastward. Global deterministic and ensemble guidance are coming into better agreement in showing that mid-level height rises appear likely late Friday into next weekend which should bring drier conditions back to the region.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 12Z Monday...Widely variable conditions exist across the region this morning. Low stratus is bringing MVFR to IFR ceilings to many places while VFR conditions are being observed outside of the low stratus. We should see this stratus mix through the morning hours with improvement to VFR conditions at all terminals by 14Z. Winds will be out of the north today with some gusty winds up to 20 knots across the Champlain Valley and KEFK. Winds will go light and variable overnight with fog likely in the sheltered river valleys. We are already hinting at fog at KEFK, KSLK, and KMPV as models seem to be in good agreement with fog developing after 7Z.

Outlook...

Labor Day: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.