textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 238 AM EDT Wednesday...

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 238 AM EDT Wednesday...

1. Mostly dry and cool temperatures through the end of the week, with a couple chances for light precipitation and afternoons with low relative humidity.

2. Dry conditions prevail through Monday night. Rising chance for showers Tuesday into Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

As of 238 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: An omega type block will set up over the middle part of the country through the end of the week, continuing a relatively consistent stretch of weather. The main chance of precipitation occurs this morning as a weak shortwave dives southeast out of Canada. Scattered showers are expected, with the highest probabilities of seeing precipitation over southern and western areas. Snow levels look to be between 1,500 and 2,500 ft during the precipitation so very light accumulations are possible in the higher elevations. With liquid precipitation only expected to be in the range of a couple hundreths of an inch at most and with marginal temperatures, accumulations are expected to be under a half inch. The other round of precipitation comes through late tonight as another shortwave passes down, though the precipitation should mostly be confined to eastern Vermont. The main feature to watch during this stretch are the fire weather elements. Low relative humidly will be present during the day Thursday and Friday, with minimum values looking to be between 25 to 40 percent both days. Deep mixing into a very dry layer above the boundary layer could cause slightly lower values in places than currently forecast. Gusty northwest winds will be present on Thursday, with values generally between 15 and 30 mph. Winds come down a bit for Friday, with gusts between 10 to 20 mph. The low relative humidity could continue into the weekend but there is uncertainty if precipitation will be able to enter the region and end it.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Surface high pressure and a building ridge aloft will keep the weather quiet across the North Country and Vermont Sunday through Monday night. Our next chance for any appreciable precipitation will come Tuesday into mid-week, though there is a large spread in model guidance regarding the track of low pressure lifting out of the central CONUS. Blended precipitation probabilities across the region are around 50% at this time, which seems reasonable considering the model uncertainty. Temperatures look to be seasonal for the extended period with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s, and lows mid 30s to mid 40s.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 12Z Thursday...VFR conditions are expected at most terminals through the period except KRUT and KMPV where MVFR ceilings are expected to develop by 15Z and 18Z respectively. Otherwise, winds will mainly be 6kts or less outside of the Champlain Valley, locally southeast at 8-12kts at KPBG and KRUT, and more southerly at KBTV where sustained winds over 10kts and gusts over 20kts are expected for most of the day, abating after sunset.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.