textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 325 AM EDT Sunday...

No significant changes made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 325 AM EDT Sunday...

1. Several rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected today into tonight, with a low probability (<15%) of a few stronger storms possible.

2. Changeable weather conditions every couple of days as fast progressive flow aloft prevails most of this upcoming week, but the probability of significant or hazardous weather impacts is <5%.

DISCUSSION

As of 325 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Crnt radar imagery shows a band of widespread light to moderate rain impacting most of our cwa this morning associated with deep moisture advection and channeled 700-500mb vorticity. This moisture and energy should shift east of VT by 15z this morning with some breaks in the overcast expected by early aftn. These breaks should allow temps to warm into the mid 70s to lower 80s with dwpts in the 60s, creating sfc based CAPE values in the 800-1200 J/kg. However, sounding data does suggest a warm nose of 13-14C air near 800mb, which could act as a cap until better forcing and cooler air aloft arrives late in the day/this evening. Also, subsidence/dry air behind initial moisture surge this morning may limit areal coverage of any convection this aftn. SPC continues to place most of our cwa in a marginal risk for severe, but feel threat is very conditions with limited areal coverage and intensity of storms anticipated due to the combination of factors outlined above. However, if a convective updraft can grow tall enough, given the developing mid/upper lvl lvl wind fields, an isolated gusty thunderstorm would be possible. The threat for stronger storms dissipates after sunset, but additional showers are likely overnight associated with our sfc cold frnt and potent 700-500mb s/w energy dropping southward. The dynamics and ribbon of moisture wl produce a line of quick moving showers from west to east acrs our cwa btwn 03z-09z Monday.

Moderate caa develops behind the boundary for Monday with lingering clouds, especially in favorable upslope regions thru early aftn, before drier air develops and skies become mostly sunny. Highs only in the upper 50s to upper 60s with brisk northwest winds. Building 1028mb high pres and associated deep dry layer wl result in mostly clear skies and light winds on Monday night, expect areas of fog with some patchy frost likely in the dacks/nek by Tues morning. Lows from the upper 20s to mid/upper 40s anticipated acrs the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2: The large scale synoptic pattern conts to indicate a fast/zonal flow acrs the northern CONUS for most of this upcoming week. This will provide our cwa with changeable weather conditions every couple of days but the probability of significant or widespread hazardous weather impacts is very low attm. Temps wl trend at or slightly below normal for most of this upcoming week with highest probability of showers late Weds into Thurs. Precip setup looks very similar to our crnt scenario with 700-500mb vorticity lobe angling acrs our cwa as sfc cold frnt is dropping southward. This wl support expanding areal coverage of showers and embedded heavier downpours late Weds into Thurs, especially with pw values near 1.5". Similar to this mornings activity, highest pops/qpf looks to be acrs central/southern areas, closer to the deeper moisture/weak instability, but this could change as the week progresses. Temps mostly in the upper 60s to mid 70s with lows mid 40s to mid 50s.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 12Z Monday...Aviation challenge this morning will be cigs and vis as light to moderate rain exits Vermont by 15z. Currently IFR cigs at SLK with rest of our sites experiencing a mix of MVFR/VFR conditions. Thinking intervals of IFR cigs are possible at EFK/MPV through 14z, before all sites trend toward MVFR/VFR and eventually VFR by early this afternoon. As a cold front approaches a broken line of showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected between 18z and 24z today. Have utilized prob30 groups to highlight this potential with greatest impacts over the northern taf sites of MSS/SLK/PBG/BTV and EFK. South winds 5 to 15 knots become northwest behind the boundary after 00z this evening. Some lingering upslope clouds will persist overnight with 30-40% probability of IFR cigs at SLK.

Outlook...

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Patchy BR. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.

MARINE

As of 325 AM EDT Sunday...

A Lake Wind Advisory continues today for gusty south to southwest winds 15 to 30 knots with a few localized gusts up to 35 knots possible this morning across the open waters. Waves generally 1 to 3 feet, but locally 3 to 5 feet possible. Winds slowly decrease this afternoon to 15 to 20 knots before shifting to the northwest overnight. Another Lake Wind Advisory maybe needed for late tonight into Monday morning for breezy northwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 1 to 3 feet.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.