textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 212 AM EDT Saturday...

No significant changes have been made with this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 212 AM EDT Saturday...

1. Beautiful weekend on tap for the North Country.

2. Cold front on Monday may bring a few showers but dry weather is largely expected through the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

As of 212 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: There may be a few high clouds present at sunrise but sunny skies will prevail both today and Sunday. A 1033 mb high pressure has become well established across the region this morning and will remain in place through much of the day Sunday. As a result, winds will be light and variable throughout the day today. Winds will shift to the south at 7-12 mph Sunday afternoon as this high departs to the east and gradient flow begins to pick up. No precipitation is expected this weekend as high temperatures will be near or slightly above seasonal normals.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front is slated to move across the region during the second half of Monday. There are an increasing number of deterministic models and ensemble perturbations that are showing increasing rain chances Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the forecast area. However, the consensus is still favoring a mostly dry passage of the cold front. We have introduced some 20-30 PoPs for portions of northern New York and northern Vermont as a result but the antecedent dry air will likely make it very difficult for any rain to make it to the surface. Thereafter, temperatures on Tuesday will be noticeably cooler as highs will struggle to warm into the mid 40s. Another high pressure system, this one even stronger than the last, will move overhead on Wednesday which will allow the extended period of dry weather to continue. Temperatures will also moderate underneath this high pressure system with temps clicking back into the upper 40s to mid 50s on Wednesday. There is a chance we could see a frontal boundary approach from the west late next week but looks rather unimpressive at this time.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 12Z Sunday...VFR conditions and light winds are expected to prevail through the TAF period. KRUT will continue to experience their typical 110-140 degree drainage wind of 7-10 knots through 12Z with winds becoming light and variable throughout the day. These terrain driven winds will likely develop once again after 3Z on Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

EQUIPMENT

Routine observations from KSLK ASOS are unavailable until further notice. While the site is operating, it is not able to disseminate observations normally at this time. Technicians are aware of the issue, but time of return to service is unknown.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.