textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 141 AM EST Friday...

Snow continues to look on track to move into the region this evening with minor accumulations expected across much of the North Country and northern New York.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 141 AM EST Friday...

1. Light snow returns this evening with minor snow accumulations expected through Saturday morning.

2. Modest warming trend expected this weekend and early next week with more uncertainty thereafter.

3. Periods of snow and/or rain are expected next week as a complex storm system brings the potential for wintry precipitation.

DISCUSSION

As of 141 AM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A calm, quiet, and cold start to the day is expected with temperatures generally in the single digits above and below zero as the sun rises. A weakening upper level low and associated clipper low at the surface will bring in some scattered snow showers to the North Country and northern New York this evening with light snow showers expected to continue through Saturday morning; especially along the western slopes of the higher terrain. The latest model soundings do show a little bit of lift within the snow growth layer but models have trended towards a partially saturated DGZ instead of fully saturated. This should prevent us from getting good dendrites and likely see more needle-like snow flakes which are very slow to accumulate. Overall, snow amounts will be minor with most places seeing just a dusting while some locations could see a half of an inch or so.

KEY MESSAGE 2: This weekend and the first half of next week will feature warming temperatures with highs climbing from the mid 20s to mid 30s Saturday all the way into the upper 30s and 40s on Tuesday. Lows will also make an impressive climb from the single digits Saturday night becoming the mid 20s to lower 30s by Monday night. This will take us 10-20 degrees above seasonal averages due to overall southwesterly flow.

KEY MESSAGE 3: As surface high pressure shifts out of the region Sunday night, a weak, moisture-starved upper shortwave will move in to take its place by Monday. We could see some snow or rain showers around this time, mainly in higher terrain and along the international border, closer to the better forcing. Things become more complicated thereafter as a complex frontal system has the potential to bring rain, freezing rain, and snow to the region. There continue to be differences in both deterministic and ensemble solutions with this system, with highest confidence in the fact that precipitation is likely to occur sometime Wednesday into Thursday. What form that precipitation takes and at what time will depend on the placement of the frontal boundary and the movement/interaction of mild and cold air masses.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 06Z Saturday...Drier conditions expected Friday. A weak disturbance will bring additional snow showers to the region Friday night into Saturday. Clear skies and light to calm winds are being observed across northern New York and Vermont. We continue to see model solutions suggesting ice crystals suspended off the ground may result in ice fog or ice pillars early this morning. Forecasting this is very tricky, however, and models have largely backed off depictions of low level moisture in the Champlain Valley and in a few other spots. Thinking most spots could have some vicinity fog and drifting clouds 100-2500 feet above ground level from 08Z through 15Z Friday. Highest confidence of conditions below VFR thresholds is at site KSLK, and have adjusted the TEMPO period to run from 10Z to 14Z, which is when potential is highest of visibilities 1-3 miles and ceilings 100-300 feet for that location. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail through at least 03Z Saturday with light and variable winds overnight becoming mostly southerly and under 10 knots. The exception to this is KMSS, which could see winds increase to 10-15 knots Friday afternoon ahead of incoming snow. Between 00Z and 06Z Saturday, snow and accompanying MVFR ceilings are expected to arrive at KMSS and potentially KSLK as well.

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Washingtons Birthday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance RA, Slight chance SN. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.

CLIMATE

As of 139 PM EST Thursday... In Burlington, the last day with a temperature breaking 32 degrees was January 22nd. The next time we are forecasting temperatures rising above 32 in Burlington is this Saturday, February 14th. If that forecast holds, that would be 22 days in a row below freezing. Sub-freezing temperature streaks this long are fairly unusual in the Burlington area, last happening January-February 2015.

EQUIPMENT

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.