textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 311 AM EDT Friday...

No major changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 311 AM EDT Friday...

1. Cool and unsettled conditions are expected through the weekend, with chances for frost.

2. Rainy and unsettled weather is expected much of next week, especially Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

As of 311 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Following departing cold front which crossed the region yesterday cooler air will be in place through the weekend. A large upper level trough stays over the region, and shortwave energy passing through base of trough will bring several chances for light showers. Maximum temperatures will be in the 50s through the weekend with a return to 60s by Monday when upper trough finally starts to begin to move eastward and some upper level ridging will build over our area. Minimum temperatures will be in the 30s tonight through Sunday night, and may see some frost but not enough coverage in the Champlain valley for an advisory. There should be some clouds and possibly showers around due to vorticity advection aloft.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A large upper low will remain centered near Hudson Bay through next week, with shortwaves pinwheeling across the Great Lakes and the Northeast. The result will be multiple waves of precipitation through the extended forecast period. The first of these looks to be Tuesday into Wednesday, when a surface low pressure system moves by well to our north, dragging a cold front across the eastern CONUS. There will be a long fetch of moisture out ahead of the front and there are some indications that the front could stall or become nearly stationary as waves of low pressure ride along the boundary. There's still plenty of uncertainty this far out, so it's difficult to say definitively when/where/if this front will stall, but the deterministic GFS, CMC, and ECMWF all show it occurring somewhere in the vicinity of New England and/or the Canadian border down into the Ohio Valley or central/southern Appalachians. Some ensemble members have a similar solution, as well. Wherever the front does stall, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches would be possible. Other than the exact placement, models also differ on how quickly the front exits, but with the upper low still in place, additional precipitation would be likely even once the front moves out. While there are no flooding concerns at this point, we'll need to watch trends closely going forward.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 12Z Saturday...VFR conditions to prevail through much of the TAF period with SCT to occasionally BKN ceilings AOA 3500 ft. Clouds thicken and lower after 04z Sat as showers move into the region. Expect all terminals to be MVFR by 08z. There are some indications that KSLK/KRUT/KMPV could drop to IFR, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAFs at this time. W/NW winds 5 to 10 kt through the daylight hours today with occasional gusts to around 15 kt, becoming light to near calm after 02z Sat.

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Patchy frost. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.