textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 306 AM EDT Tuesday...

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 306 AM EDT Tuesday...

1. Mostly dry with a few isolated showers mid-week. Showery conditions return Thursday and Friday.

2. A pattern change towards increasingly above normal temperatures and lower chances of rain is favored from the weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 306 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A ridge of surface high pressure will build into the region today into tomorrow. Upper level troughing will remain in place through mid-week, but most shortwave activity will stay to the north over Quebec. Cool temperatures aloft and diurnal heating will cause chances for isolated showers. Isolated to scattered showers are most likely on Wednesday near the international border where the synoptic forcing will be the strongest. However, today and Wednesday will still be almost completely dry. Surface ridge will move out of the area Thursday afternoon, and this will allow next chance for showers. At the crest of the ridge axis, the shift in air masses with sufficient moisture will generate a few showers, mainly across the Northeast Kingdom early in the afternoon. The bulk of activity will be later in the evening, as some mid-level vorticity ahead of the base of an incoming trough and marginal daytime instability of about 300-500 J/kg will support some activity along the incoming boundary. A broad, disorganized surface low will slide eastwards overnight, which will allow rain chances to continue into Friday. This low will be just east of the region by Friday afternoon. We may be able to generate somewhat greater instability, and there will be some shear, therefore will have to monitor for any severe potential going forward.

KEY MESSAGE 2: While the large scale pattern remains somewhat unsettled for the upcoming weekend, the trough position to our east and limited amplification supports primarily dry weather with only isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two. The consensus idea right now shows higher chances of rain across northeastern Vermont, especially Sunday. However, with PWAT near or under 1", close to climatological median, heavy rainfall rates are not expected in any showers through the period.

The main story will be a return to seasonably warm conditions as heat and moisture builds to our west and gradually shifts and advects into New York and New England. For now, each day looks a couple degrees warmer than the day before moving from Saturday through Monday next week, leading to temperatures mainly in the 80s on Monday. There is typical spread in temperature guidance, with some of the differences related to the position of the ridge to our west; if the ridge is farther east and/or more amplified on Monday in particular, that could be a hotter day than the current forecast indicates. Looking ahead just beyond the next seven days, uncertainty increases further in statistical guidance. This could mark the start of more significant heat potential (when probabilities of a major heat risk ramp up in magnitude and spatial coverage). However, we'll have to wait and see until a better consensus on the character of the upper level ridge develops.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 12Z Wednesday...Primary aviation hazard during this period remains very low ceilings early in the period, which has been quite pervasive at MPV and at RUT. There should be gradual improvement through 15Z at sites that have lingering low clouds, with otherwise mainly VFR conditions through the rest of the period. Calm/terrain driven winds will remain light but increase slightly after 12Z out of the northwest but will not be impactful.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Definite SHRA, Chance TSRA. Friday: MVFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.