textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 154 PM EST Friday...

Due to a decrease in expected low temperatures tonight and potential for lingering light winds, the Cold Weather Advisory was extended until 9 AM Saturday for the northern Adirondack Region and southeastern Vermont.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 154 PM EST Friday...

1. Very cold wind chills of 15 to 30 degrees below zero are expected through Saturday morning across the northern Adirondacks and southeastern Vermont. Cold, dry weather continues through the weekend.

2. Seasonally cool and dry weather expected through much of the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

As of 154 PM EST Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Upper level low pressure will shift eastward across the Midwest and Northeast this evening and tonight with dry air locked in at the surface, resulting in a dry, cold night with clouds lingering in the mountains and some clearer skies expected in southern Vermont valleys. Wind chills as low as 15 to 30 below zero are still being reported across much of the forecast area this afternoon.

Adirondacks: The atmosphere looks to again stay coupled for most locations across the northern Adirondack region, however, northwesterly winds will be on the decrease throughout the night. This will result in temperatures falling into the -15 to 0 F range with coldest temperatures in the typical spots. Wind chills are forecast to remain around 20 to 30 below zero through 9 AM Saturday. Conditions will be quite bitter right after the sun goes down this evening and before winds decrease, but coldest wind chills will arrive when temperatures fall to their lowest around 3-8 AM Saturday morning.

Southeastern Vermont: The Connecticut River Valley currently has wind chills around 5 to 15 below zero, but we anticipate those to decrease rapidly as temperatures fall after the sun sets and any lingering heat at the surface radiates off under mostly clear skies. Cold air is also expected to flow into the valley and pool there tonight, dropping ambient temperatures to 5 to 15 below zero by around 3-8 AM Saturday morning. With temperatures at this level, wind chills of 15 to 25 below will not be difficult to achieve with even slight drainage winds through 9 AM Saturday.

While we remain under upper level troughing this weekend, high pressure does start to build into the region from the Mississippi Valley and Midwest, and surface air remains dry, so precipitation chances appear very low through Sunday night. With this, 850mb level temperatures start to increase from around -15 to -17 C Saturday becoming -9 to -11 C Sunday. Furthermore, surface temperatures appear to make a meager attempt at increasing over the weekend with highs in the single digits and teens Saturday becoming mid teens to lower 20s Sunday. While an improvement over recent conditions, these temperatures will still be 15-20 degrees below seasonable averages for late January into early February. This will be in part due to northerly and northeasterly flow across northern New York and Vermont as low pressure tracks northeastward across the Atlantic Ocean on Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Several reinforcing shots of arctic air is expected to descend across the North Country through next week. This will allow the current spell of below normal temperatures to continue through next week, although temperatures are expected to be a good bit warmer than those that we are currently experiencing. Given that we will be seeing several bursts of arctic air, there will be limited amounts of moisture available to us which should keep us mostly dry with partly sunny skies each day. A weak filament of shortwave energy could bring just enough forcing to squeeze out a few snow showers but won't amount to much or be widespread.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 18Z Saturday...Conditions continue to improve across regional TAF sites this afternoon with VFR conditions now prevailing at all TAF sites. Winds remain gusty out of the W/NW at 12 to 20 knots and will continue to slowly abate as we head into the evening hours. A flurry or two cannot be ruled out at KEFK this afternoon but should have little to no impacts to the flight category there. Clouds will build in from the north overnight but ceilings will remain in the 4-8 kft range. VFR conditions are again expected on Saturday with lighter northerly winds expected.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

EQUIPMENT

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Saturday for VTZ010-020- 021. NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Saturday for NYZ029>031- 034.