textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 228 AM EDT Friday...

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 228 AM EDT Friday...

1. Dry before showers return late tomorrow and Sunday.

2. A few lingering showers north on Tuesday, then dry conditions Wednesday before scattered showers return later Thursday into Friday.

DISCUSSION

As of 228 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry and relatively seasonable conditions will continue today with low humidity. Highs will be in the 70s and low 80s and lows will be in the 40s and 50s away from Lake Champlain. A primary area of low pressure will develop over the Great Lakes tomorrow and a secondary low will form off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The primary will track northeast into Quebec, while the low off the Mid-Atlantic looks to travel up the eastern seaboard. The idea is that these two lows should eventually phase over Quebec, past our region. Showers are likely tomorrow night over northern New York from the primary low, and these will gradually track eastward. Showers are possible late Saturday into Saturday night in southern areas from the secondary low, but whether these can reach the region or stay south remains uncertain. Some showers are expected region-wide on Sunday as the parent low passes east. While a couple rumbles of thunder are possible during the day, instability will be very low due to a lack of consistent sunshine and a cooler airmass. Forecast rainfall amounts have trended down. GEFS/EPS/CMCE combined probabilities of a half inch of rain are now between 0-40 percent, with the lowest values over central and northern Vermont which look to get sandwiched between the two lows. Probabilities of an inch are now below 10 percent.

KEY MESSAGE 2: No large-scale changes in thinking have occurred over the past 24 hours as model solutions remain in broad agreement on the overall synoptic wx pattern for the middle to later portions of next week. Big picture shows the base of the aforementioned upper trough atop our region Tuesday morning, which pulls out to the north and east over time by later in the day. A few showers will still be possible across the north during this period, mainly across the higher terrain, but many hours of dry wx are also expected. High pressure and associated sunny/dry wx make a return visit on Wednesday before additional troughing enters the picture by later Thursday into Friday with additional shower chances. Temperatures on Tuesday to run about 5 degrees below climo-average late August norms before moderating to near normal from Wednesday onward. Winds generally light through the period.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 06Z Saturday...Patchy LIFR/IFR BR/FG at KSLK/KMPV/KEFK/KMSS through 11-13Z. Otherwise VFR area wide under light winds less than 10 kts with mainly SKC as high pressure settles across the region.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Patchy BR. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.