textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 233 PM EDT Tuesday...

The forecast for the upcoming weekend has trended drier.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 233 PM EDT Tuesday...

1. Dry and seasonable before a few showers Thursday.

2. Chances for showers decreasing this weekend, but remaining seasonable cool.

DISCUSSION

As of 233 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Surface high pressure is shifting off to the east, and return southerly flow has developed. Winds will increase this afternoon and gusts in the 10-20 mph range are expected heading into the evening. A dying cold front will push down from the north overnight and bring the chance of a couple showers. However, weak forcing and dry air in the low levels should cause most of this to fall as virga, though a few sprinkles are expected in northern areas. Dry and warm weather will return for Wednesday with highs in the 70s to around 80. An area of rain will attempt to move into the region on Thursday into Thursday night as isentropic lift occurs on a warm front. EPS ensemble members generally favor a wetter solution and a farther north front, while GEFS and CMCE members generally keep the rain to the south. Models have shifted into a bit more of an agreement where it looks like at least southern Vermont should see a few showers, but the northward extent remains uncertain. However, any precipitation would be light and stratiform, with the wet EPS probabilities of a half inch of rain generally ranging between 20-30 percent.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Following a washed out cold front by the end of the work week, trends have continued to move towards the ECMWF solution keeping most, if not all, precipitation south of the area Saturday night and Sunday. The baroclinic zone responsible for the area of potential showers will be draped more over central and southern New York with better forcing southwest of our region. That said, model solutions Sunday afternoon into Monday denote a subtle redevelopment of a surface low off the southern New England coast which could bring some light shower chances to southern Vermont. All in all, our shower chances this weekend are trending lower. Our flow pattern will remain confluent into next week with zonal flow aloft with generally dry conditions towards next week. Model solutions begin to vary by early next week in terms of precipitation chances. An upper level high over the Great Lakes will set up a dry corridor from the Great Lakes into northern New England, while a moisture axis over the Mid Atlantic attempts to push north. Model uncertainty in how much dry air there is will determine if moisture and associated shower potential are able to penetrate northward into our region, or if dry subsident air keeps our shower chances shunted to the south. Regardless, zonal northwesterly flow will keep our temperatures through the weekend into early next week on the seasonably cool side with highs fairly consistent in the mid to upper 60s, and lows in the low to mid 40s, with some cold hollows hovering about the upper 30s. Sky conditions favor mainly cloudy conditions through the extended.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 00Z Thursday...VFR with local MVFR expected through the TAF period. Current ceilings AOA 8000 ft will gradually lower overnight as a weak cold front pushes across the region from west to east. Clouds will lower to 3500-5000 ft, except at SLK where ceilings will drop to 2500 ft. These conditions will persist through 16z Wed, then expect gradually lifting ceilings thereafter. A few very light rain showers will be possible with the frontal passage, but no visibility restrictions or significant impacts are expected, so mention in the TAFs is not warranted at this time. Winds light S/SE this evening will occasionally become gusty overnight, mainly at BTV as a weak low level jet moves east. This jet may also bring a period of marginal LLWS overnight, as well, particularly at SLK/MSS. Winds turn to the W/SW and eventually NW during the day Tuesday behind the frontal passage.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

MARINE

Channeled southerly flow will continue to increase this afternoon and evening. They should ramp up on the broad waters into the 20 to 25 knot range by late afternoon, and near 20 knots over the northern waters. As a result, waves will markedly increase into the 1 to 3 feet range by this evening. During the evening, they will likely reach the 3 to 4 feet range in the vicinity of Colchester Reef and 2 to 3 foot range in the Inland Sea as winds will likely peak in intensity. Elevated south winds will likely persist into Wednesday morning before sharply diminishing by Wednesday afternoon.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.