textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 221 AM EDT Thursday...

No significant changes have been made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 221 AM EDT Thursday...

1. After more widespread precipitation overnight and early this morning, showers will become more scattered. Chances for afternoon showers will continue throughout the week, before drier conditions return towards Sunday.

2. Several rounds of showers expected next week but no significant weather expected.

DISCUSSION

As of 221 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1:

Widespread precipitation continues to push through the region this hour, although rainfall amounts are not nearly impressive as they were earlier in the night when KMSS measured over 3 inches of rainfall within a fairly short window. Showers will trend more scattered as the day progresses, with the best chances for additional rainfall across eastern Vermont and the northern Green Mountains although amounts will generally be light. Gusty southerly winds continue across the region this hour, particularly on Lake Champlain, but will diminish towards daybreak and become more northwesterly by this afternoon. Additional chances for diurnally driven showers will continue through the rest of the week, with the greatest chances across the high terrain while the broader valleys remain on the drier side. High pressure looks to build in towards Sunday, bringing some drier weather. Temperatures will be on the cooler side as we remain under the influence of an upper low, with high temperatures generally in the upper 60s to mid 70s by this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Deep layer ridging will make a brief appearance on Monday bringing sunshine, light winds and seasonal temperatures to the North Country and northern New York. This period of dry weather will be short-lived as a shortwave trough in the northwesterly flow aloft flattens the longwave ridge and drives a cold front through the region Monday night into Tuesday morning. This should spark a few showers but no thunderstorms or impactful weather are expected with this system as we will seriously lack deep moisture. Thereafter, a series of low amplitude shortwaves are expected to move across the region through the second half of the work week. Period of light showers seem plausible through much of the week with ample period of dry weather between rounds of showers. However, if you are looking for an extended period of dry weather, next week does not look favorable for that at this time.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 06Z Friday...Widespread MVFR conditions are expected to continue through 13-14Z before a gradual improvement to VFR ceilings is expected. In the meantime, showers will continue to move through the area with isolated pockets of IFR visibilities with the heavier showers. Showers largely taper off after 13Z as a cold front slides through the North Country. Winds will veer from the S to the WNW this afternoon before ultimately going light and variable overnight tonight. We could see some patchy fog late tonight into Friday morning but there is plenty of time to figure that out.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Labor Day: VFR. NO SIG WX.

MARINE

As of 221 AM EDT Thursday...The Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect with south winds 20 to 30 knots sustain and gusts in excess of 35 knots currently observed on the lake. Waves 2 to 4+ feet will continue over the next few hours. Winds are expected to diminish over the next few hours, becoming light and variable towards the afternoon.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.