textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 231 PM EDT Wednesday...

No significant changes from the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 231 PM EDT Wednesday...

1. Light wintry mix tonight into Thursday morning.

2. Rain Thursday evening into the overnight, changing to snow early Friday morning.

3. Becoming warmer with the train of weather systems likely to continue next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 231 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A stationary front draped across the forecast area this afternoon will provide the focus for a wintry mix tonight as it lifts north as a warm front through Thursday. Weak shortwave energy and surface low pressure north of Lake Superior this afternoon will track west to east along the front tonight into Thursday morning with low/mid-level thermal profiles generally supporting scattered rain and snow showers as surface temps range through the 30s. Northeasterly flow, however, will keep surface temperatures below freezing in northern St. Lawrence Valley through at least the first half of the night, and with warming temps aloft this will support some light freezing rain and a few hundreths of ice accretion there. Elsewhere snow showers shouldn't amount to much near the surface with warm boundary layer temps, but and inch or two is possible across the high peaks.

KEY MESSAGE 2: The aforementioned warm front continues to move north to about the international border on Thursday with gusty southerly winds pushing surface temps into the upper 40s to mid 50s across the region. After morning showers dissipate, the rest of the daylight hours should be dry before additional shortwave energy and weak surface low bring another round of precipitation for the evening and overnight hours. Precipitation will predominantly be rain through midnight before the front begins to move back south as a cold front changing rain to snow at the higher elevations first, then briefly to the valley floor during the pre-dawn hours before ending by the morning commute. Much like the previous day, the bulk of snow accumulation will be across the highest elevations with several inches possible above 2500 feet, but below that only a dusting to an inch is likely. Colder and drier weather follows for Friday through Saturday with highs in the mid-20s to mid-30s and lows Friday night cold in the single digits to teens above zero.

KEY MESSAGE 3: As has been the case recently, the jet stream remains very fast in the forecast. Ensembles suggest speeds across the belt of westerlies across Canada will remain near to above the 90th percentile. Several embedded systems will continue to zip along this express without a real connection to deep, tropical moisture. It does appear towards the back half of next week that the persistently fast flow will break down. So a pattern change is possible next weekend.

Looking at Sunday, the axis of a 500mb trough will slide east with a near 1040mb high settling across the Mid-Atlantic. Weather conditions will probably be beautiful with sunshine and seasonably cool conditions in the mid 30s to mid 40s. A surface low with marginal moisture will track across Quebec Province on Monday and drag a surface trough with scattered showers through the area. Tuesday appears the most likely dry day in this stretch before precipitation chances return. Another warm front will track across the region Wednesday. As noted above, the break down of channeled flow will result in a more amplified wave pattern that will open us up to more moist, southwesterly flow for the latter half of next week. It appears several shortwaves will eject northeast into the Northeast ahead of the main system of interest to track into the area towards next Friday/Saturday.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 18Z Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected over the next 6 hours or so. Precipitation will begin moving in from west to east after 00z, but dry air could result in most radar returns being virga. Ceilings will gradually fall towards 2500-5000 ft agl approaching 12z Thursday. A brief wintry mix will be possible at the onset of precipitation, but this will likely be so short-lived at most spots, the only mention is at KMSS. There will also be an expanding area of low-level wind shear as southwest flow at 2000 ft agl increases to 35-45. Precipitation will exit east of Vermont about 14-15z Thursday. As that occurs, south to southwest winds will pick up with gusts 15-25 knots possible, especially at KMSS and KBTV. Returning rain chances are expected after 18z Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely RA, Chance SN. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA, Slight chance SN.

EQUIPMENT

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.