textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 243 AM EDT Monday...

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 243 AM EDT Monday...

1. Dry weather continues through Tuesday with critical fire weather conditions possible Tuesday.

2. Large scale troughing gradually builds into the region mid- week, bringing multiple rounds of rain.

3. Unsettled conditions are expected to linger through the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 243 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: An omega block remains in place for the next couple days, leading to consistent weather. The ridging will remain over the region, so dry and sunny weather will generally prevail through Tuesday. Relative humidity values should drop into the 20 to 40 percent range for most areas during the afternoons, but lighter winds will lessen fire weather concerns today. Peak gusts will generally be around and under 10 mph through today. A very dry layer will persist above the boundary layer and efficient mixing could cause dew points to be slightly lower than forecast on any given day, though lower guidance was already blended into the forecast. Winds will increase notably on Tuesday, with southerly gusts between 20 to 35 mph possible. The winds, combined with the low relative humidity, are causing critical fire weather conditions to become increasingly likely. Fire weather concerns aside, this stretch will feature great spring weather to get outside. Temperatures will rise into the 60s and low 70s during the days with abundant sunshine.

KEY MESSAGE 2: The first chance of rain comes late Tuesday and Tuesday night as a shortwave rides along the incoming trough. However, most of the energy will pass to the northwest so any associated precipitation will quickly fall apart as it enters the region. Therefore, a few showers are possible over northern New York during this period, but they would be relatively light and confined to the western areas. Due to the very dry antecedent airmass, these may struggle to reach the ground entirely. A more potent shortwave passes through late Wednesday and Thursday and the longwave trough will have moved east enough that the shortwave passes over the region. Therefore, a round of steady rain is increasingly likely as an area of low pressure develops. The track of the surface low looks to be to the east so the cold air will overspread the region, leading to a relatively chilly rain. A large model spread remains with the expected precipitation amounts. Through Thursday, the combined GEFS/EPS/CMC probability of receiving more than a half inch is between 60 and 90 percent and receiving more than an inch are 25 to 50 percent. Snow showers are possible in the highest peaks at the end.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Model consensus strongly favors stagnation of the longwave pattern as downstream blocking intensifies late this week into the weekend. With projections of an upper level low lingering over the region, daily shower chances remain likely. Under the cold core of the low, it's reasonable to expect some snow showers for higher elevations above 2500ft with potential for some rain/snow mix down to around 2000ft. As such, high temperatures will be below seasonal averages, but not so much that lower valleys will need to be concerned with snow chances. Highs are favored to be in the upper 40s to low 50s with overnight lows in the mid/upper 30s to near 40 degrees.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 12Z Tuesday...Persistent VFR will continue through the forecast period with the region under high pressure. Winds will generally remain light and be more terrain driven in absence of a stronger pressure gradient. Some lake breeze for BTV/PBG is favored to develop around Lake Champlain as temperatures warm driving a thermal circulation. Southerly winds aloft begin to increase overnight setting up for some breezy conditions on Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.