textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 235 PM EDT Monday...

No significant changes to the current forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 235 PM EDT Monday...

1. Quiet and dry weather is expected through the late week.

2. Dry and seasonable conditions continue through next weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 235 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Strong ridging remains centered over the area today associated with a 1035mb high centered over the Canadian Maritimes. Temperatures have warmed nicely under clear skies as a result this afternoon into the low to mid 60s for many locations. Another clear night is in store with temperatures lowering into the mid 30s to low 40s. Some cooler air may be possible in the Adirondacks and northern St. Lawrence Valley as winds turn to the northeast beyond midnight, leading to cold air drainage from Canada. A weak moisture starved cold front will slide south from Canada late tonight into Tuesday and wash out over the area with no precipitation expected, though some morning clouds and cooler temperatures can be expected Tuesday morning. Sunny skies will prevail thereafter with large scale ridging continuing with low humidity and light winds through late week. While prevailing confidence remains high for no precipitation through late week, there are some signs of light sprinkles across the spine of the Greens late Thursday as another moisture starved cold front moves through. While GEFS ensembles show 0% of any measurable precipitation, the Euro ensembles have been fairly stable denoting a 60% chance for at least some measurable rain along the western slopes of the Greens Thursday afternoon. Have introduced a small area of slight chance PoPs (20% or less) for the aforementioned areas. Given the stout dry layer we will have, showers should they develop, likely would be virga moreover, keeping confidence on the high side for little to no precipitation.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A classic stretch of fall weather will continue late this week and through the weekend. Surface high pressure will build south out of Quebec for Friday, bringing cold air advection. A brief flurry is possible in the mountains early Friday behind the cold front but moisture will be significantly lacking. Highs will drop into the upper 40s to around 50 on Friday. The high should be centered almost directly overhead over the weekend, leading to clear skies, light winds and highs in the 50s. Most mornings will be frosty during this stretch, with lows in the 20s and 30s.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 06Z Wednesday...The aviation challenge this morning is the potential for fog/low cigs associated with weak backdoor cold front. Current nighttime fog product shows clear skies across our taf sites, but very little spread in temp/dewpoint noted at MSS/SLK, with MSS already below cross over value. Given this along with sounding data sharp llvl inversion feel some br/fog with IFR conditions are possible (40-50%), so have utilized tempo between 09-12z at mss. At SLK/EFK thinking winds of 10-15 knots at 300 feet above ground level should limit IFR potential, while rest of our taf sites stay VFR for the next 24 hours. A wind shift to the north/northeast is expected between 08z and 12z this morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.