textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 323 AM EDT Sunday...

No significant changes to the current forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 323 AM EDT Sunday...

1. Frontal system crosses our area today bringing showers with embedded thunderstorms to the region.

2. Showers continue into Monday as low pressure lags behind departing frontal system, leaving cyclonic flow in place.

3. Showery end to the week before trending drier over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 323 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers upstream across western New York will lift northeastward into our region today as a surface frontal system will move across our area. Morning showers and convection may be an inhibiting factor for possible additional convection this afternoon. Current forecast is for maximum temperatures to reach the 70s areawide this afternoon. These temperatures along with dewpoints into the upper 50s to lower 60s will lead to CAPE around 500-1000 J/kg by the afternoon. Modest mid level lapse rates along with some surface based instability will mean we will have to monitor for some possible severe storms this afternoon. CAMS still handling the timing of convection a bit differently today, and morning convection will continue to be a possible limiting factor to prevent storms from being too strong. Several rounds of showers, but should mostly be scattered so rainfall totals should not be too hefty, generally half an inch or less except in locations that may have multiple rounds of thunderstorms today.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Although surface fronts cross our area today, the parent low pressure system will linger behind it, and make it's way north of our region during the day Monday. Upper level low pressure system will also be crossing our region Monday into Tuesday. This will lead to continued light rain showers, though less convective threat. Still mentioning slight chance for thunderstorms during the afternoon, though surface instability looks less impressive on Monday. Flow will also become more southwesterly and there will be noticeable influence off Lake Ontario as showers become more concentrated in the St Lawrence valley on Monday night into Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 3: An upper-level trough builds in on Thursday and Friday, bringing the chance for some showers. A weak northern- stream surface low should track from west to east out of the Great Lakes Region and into Quebec during this time, amplifying the showers. Model guidance has trended weaker and more out to sea for any secondary low that tries to develop on Friday, keeping the heaviest rain southeast of the region and causing Saturday to trend drier. During that period, GEFS/EPS/CMCE combined probabilities of more than a half inch of rain are down below 25 percent. Broad upper troughing and associated cyclonic flow should remain over the weekend, keeping temperatures on the cooler side, but conditions should remain mostly dry.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 12Z Monday...A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings currently exist, with VFR visibility everywhere. Ceilings will rise during the day today and they should reach VFR everywhere except MPV by mid- morning. Ceilings at MPV should eventually rise to VFR, but it could take until evening. Passing showers are expected during the day and this evening, with a brief period of steady rain expected across much of northern New York this morning. These showers will mostly drop the visibility to low VFR and MVFR, but brief periods of IFR are possible in the heaviest showers. Thunder is also expected in the heaviest showers, along with strong erratic winds. The showers should be done by midnight, and dry conditions are expected for the rest of the night. Winds will be southerly during this period, with gusts in the 10-20 KT range during the day, decreasing in the evening. The strongest gusts are expected at BTV and PBG. LLWS is possible at MSS this morning for a couple hours. Patchy fog formation is possible tonight where clearing can occur, with the highest probability of occurrence at SLK and MPV.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.