textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 120 AM EST Tuesday...No changes were needed. A Nor'easter is being monitored, but probabilistic guidance suggests it will remain well away from the region at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 120 AM EST Tuesday...

1. Periods of isolated to scattered snow showers expected through Thursday night.

2. Cold temperatures/wind chills Thursday night.

3. A Nor'easter looks to remain mostly east of the region Sunday and Sunday night.

DISCUSSION

As of 120 AM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Cyclonic flow with below normal temperatures will provide several opportunities for snow showers as a couple weak disturbances progress eastwards. Today, one such system will approach late morning into the afternoon. Southwesterly flow ahead of it will draw lake effect snow showers northwards. Sufficient lift and moisture for snow showers will be present as the system moves overhead, but the feature is not overly dynamic with no favorable jet structure or anything of that nature. Outside the lake effect in southern St. Lawrence Valley dropping 1-3" (locally 4" possible), an extra coating to a few tenths of snow is expected in showers is likely today.

Snow will taper off as the trough shifts east Tuesday night into Wednesday. Most of Wednesday will be quiet beneath a shortwave ridge, but another trough will shift east Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The surface reflection is rather weak, and so lower PoPs are anticipated, but snow showers could still occur, mainly over favorable upslope regions.

.KEY MESSAGE 2: A reinforcing shot of cold air enters Thursday and drops temperatures further for Thursday night into Friday. Cold air advection should continue through Thursday night for most places, keeping the boundary layer coupled and some wind around. These winds, combined with the cold temperatures, look to drop wind chills into the -15 to -25 degree range for most places. However, there is some uncertainty regarding on how low they go. This could end up being a case where either temperatures fall to their current lows or even farther, or winds stay up but temperatures are warmer then forecast. These could end up causing higher wind chills than forecast. Model guidance is still split on the amount the boundary layer will decouple and how many clouds will be around, but as the forecast stands, a Cold Weather Advisory would need to be at least issued for the Adirondacks.

.KEY MESSAGE 3: Another powerful nor'easter looks to move up the Eastern Seaboard over the weekend, behaving as a now uncommon Miller Type A storm. A vast majority of model guidance keeps the snow over southern New England and Maine or points east. Trends have been relatively consistent or shifting the storm track slightly east, so as it stands, the storm does not look to bring significant snow to the region, though it will still be watched. Probabilities of an inch from the GEFS/EPS/CAN ensemble blend are around 30 percent for eastern areas dropping to 10 percent for the St. Lawrence Valley. Based on the pattern, there does not look to be the potential for a significant shift north/west like there was for the previous snowstorm.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 06Z Wednesday...Light snow will exit the region within the next few hours and all visibilities are expected to be VFR by 09Z. A few flurries cannot be ruled out afterward but they should be light enough to prevent any visibility related flight category changes. A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings are currently out there and ceilings will trend upward as the night goes on. All terminals except EFK and possibly SLK should be VFR by 12Z. Mostly VFR conditions should prevail through the morning before snow showers arrive in the afternoon. They will be the heaviest and steadiest over northern New York, where intervals of MVFR and IFR visibilities are expected. Across Vermont, they will likely only cause intervals of MVFR visibilities. Winds will generally be northerly for the rest of the night, before becoming southwesterly to southerly during the day today.

EQUIPMENT

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.