textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 259 AM EDT Saturday...

No big changes to this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 259 AM EDT Saturday...

1. Drier weather through Sunday afternoon. Rainfall associated with remnants of Isaias to bring rain to parts of our area, no flooding expected.

2. Seasonably cool middle and end to the week with a couple shower chances.

DISCUSSION

As of 259 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Surface high pressure builds into the region today, leading to mostly sunny skies, lighter winds and high temperatures in the 50s for most places. Relatively widespread frost is likely tomorrow morning, but winds are expected to remain brisk for a longer portion of the overnight, so extent of frost formation in the Champlain valley is somewhat limited, though it could be enough for a Frost Advisory to be issued later. High pressure slides east Sunday and return southerly flow will provide warmer temperatures to rise into the 60s areawide. High clouds ahead of Isaias will infiltrate the region during the afternoon Sunday. Widespread rainfall will hold off until after sunset for most locations with a quarter to half of an inch of rain expected for many locations. Areas near the Canadian Border will likely see the least rainfall with amounts closer to a tenth of an inch. Will have to monitor for heavier bands within the precipitation shield. This will likely change run to run and with the lack of mesoscale models having the temporal resolution to analyze this feature, we won't know about placement of this possible banded precipitation until tomorrow afternoon most likely. Nevertheless, the rainfall seen Sunday night, even if it's in the 1-1.5 inch rain locally, will be highly beneficial with no flood concerns anticipated at this time. A strengthening mid-level jet Sunday night will help to quickly shift these remnants eastward with dry conditions expected by daybreak on Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A surface low will pass through from west to east Tuesday night, bringing widespread showers. While it will be quick moving and technically more northern stream and not have a strong connection to Gulf/Atlantic moisture, it will include the remnants of Tropical Storm Rachael so there will be some efficient rainfall with the former tropical moisture. GEFS/EPS/CMCE combined probabilities of a half inch of rain range between 30-50 percent and probabilities of an inch are below 10 percent, so the rain would only be beneficial. Warm air aloft will remain on the backside so even though the cold front drops temperatures significantly, rainfall amounts on Sunday have increased slightly with most locations seeing between a quarter to half of an inch of rain with closer to a tenth of an inch of rain near the Canadian Border.ny upslope showers look to remain rain in the mountains. Dry, sunny and seasonably cool conditions develop for Thursday before more shower chances arrive for Friday and the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 12Z Sunday...Any fog will lift by 14Z and then VFR conditions should prevail through tonight at all terminals. Winds will generally be light and northwesterly or variable today. Winds change to southerly and begin to increase quickly tonight. The flip will likely be first at MSS, BTV, PBG, and RUT where it should occur before 6Z. The rest may take until 12Z. By late in the night, gusts at BTV, PBG, and MSS will likely be in the 10-20 KT range. Elsewhere, winds and gusts should mostly stay under 10 KT.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Columbus Day: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Definite SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Definite SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.