textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 222 PM EDT Wednesday...

No significant changes to the current forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 222 PM EDT Wednesday...

1. Large ridge of surface high pressure will keep conditions dry with seasonable temperatures through the end of the week. There will be increasing fire weather concerns on Thursday into Friday with slightly stronger winds and low humidity values.

2. Dry and seasonable conditions continue through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 222 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Our region remains under influence of surface high pressure even though the center of the ridge is shifting away from the area. There is also a low pressure system which continues to meander off the mid Atlantic and New England coast. As the low moves northward and another ridge of high pressure builds into our area, will have increasing winds out of the north on Thursday. A weak surface front will also drop across our area on Thursday, but really only expecting an increase in clouds and no precipitation. Overnight minimum temperatures tonight will be highly dependent on elevation as a sharp low level thermal inversion develops with poor rh recoveries across the mid-upper elevations within this thermal belt. Lows will range from the mid 20s to mid/upper 30s with a sharp humidity range from excellent recoveries in the valleys to poor acrs the ridges. As the boundary approaches on Thurs, did note a slight increase in 925mb to 850mb moisture, along with a strengthening low level jet of 20 to 35 knots. Strongest winds appear to occur btwn 00z and 12z Friday, when mixing profiles are less favorable, but expect localized gusty winds on ridges and Lake Champlain. Once again with developing winds poor rh recoveries are possible, especially summit level on Friday morning with a large spread in temps anticipated. Friday is the coolest day of the week with highs upper 30s to lower 50s acrs our region. Fire weather concerns increase Thursday afternoon into Friday with slightly stronger surface winds, near critically dry humidities and recent dry spell resulting in receptive fine fuels, especially leaf litter. Winds and humidities will fall short of red flag conditions, but we will continue to monitor closely in the upcoming days ahead.

KEY MESSAGE 2: The classic stretch of fall weather will continue through the middle of next week. High pressure will shift to the east a bit for Sunday, and return southerly flow will cause temperatures to rise into the 60s for most places. A moisture starved cold front moves through Monday and Monday night, and while a brief sprinkle or mountain flurry is possible during its passage, it will be pretty much completely dry. This will drop highs back into the 50s and potentially upper 40s for places Tuesday and Wednesday. While a prolonged stretch of dry weather will continue with some days of low relative humidity values, winds look to be too light to cause serious fire weather concerns right now.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 18Z Thursday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the next 24 hours. The only exception would be tomorrow morning when brief MVFR ceilings could be possible. Winds will be mostly light/variable/terrain driven through tonight. Winds will increase a bit tomorrow morning after the passage of a cold front and become northerly/northeasterly. Gusts in the 5-15 KT range are possible tomorrow, with the highest ones at BTV and PBG.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. Friday: VFR. Friday Night: VFR. Saturday: VFR. Saturday Night: VFR. Sunday: VFR. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.