textproduct: Burlington

SYNOPSIS

A weak ridge of high pressure will bring mainly dry conditions to the North Country today. Once patchy morning valley fog dissipates, skies will become mostly sunny with seasonable temperatures for mid-June with modest humidity levels. An approaching cold front from southeastern Ontario will bring a period of gusty southwesterly winds this evening and during the first half of tonight. Winds in the St. Lawrence Valley are expected to gust as high as 35 mph. A few light rain showers will accompany the cold front late tonight. Dry and seasonable weather returns for Thursday and Friday with low humidity. The next chance for widespread rain showers arrives Friday night into Saturday as a warm front lifts into New York and New England.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 636 AM EDT Wednesday...A cold front is departing eastward through the Canadian Maritimes early this morning with a weak ridge of high pressure building in across NY and western New England in its wake. The only ongoing concern is some patchy dense fog, primarily confined to the Rutland area and the deeper, narrow river valleys of central and eastern Vermont. That fog should continue thru approx 12Z and then quickly dissipate as PBL deepens with onset of daytime heating cycle. Should see temperatures generally in the 50s at sunrise.

During the daylight hours today, moderately strong zonal mid- level flow continues, but heights will be slowly rising. Not much in the way of forcing for showers during the daylight hours, so carried a dry forecast with just some passing mid-lvl clouds and scattered cumulus clouds during the peak heating hours. Temperatures will generally warm into the 75-80F for afternoon highs.

A quick moving shortwave trough approaching from the Ottawa Valley during the evening hours will bring an increase in winds this evening into the first half of tonight. In advance of the trough axis, the 00z HREF ensemble mean 850mb winds increase to 50-55kt across far northern NY during the 00-03Z period Thursday. Appears low-level lapse rates will remain steep enough for downward mixing potential, and indicated SW winds 20-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph across far nrn NY including the St. Lawrence Valley. May also need a Lake Wind Advisory on Lake Champlain for tonight, as S-SW winds are expected to increase to 15-25kts near or just after sunset. The NAM3km suggests slightly stronger winds are possible in sfc gusts, so will need to monitor. Kept mention of gusty winds in the St. Lawrence Valley to the morning Hazardous Weather Outlook for now, as winds are expected to remain below wind advisory criteria.

This shortwave trough and associated weak secondary cold front will bring potential for a few rain showers during the overnight hours/pre-dawn hours Thursday. Carried 20-40 PoPs, with highest PoPs generally across the far north and in orographically favored/upslope flow areas of the nrn Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains. Rainfall amounts tonight generally less than 0.05", except possibly 0.10" near the higher summits with orographic enhancement. Should see several hours of mostly cloudy conditions as the front shifts through the region during the pre-dawn hours on Thursday. Lows will be cooler, mainly in the mid-upr 40s except lower 50s for the Champlain Valley and immediate CT River Valley.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 222 AM EDT Wednesday...Tranquil weather is anticipated Thursday and Friday with a dry air mass in place courtesy of the frontal passage late Wednesday night. May see some lingering post-frontal cloud cover early Thursday, especially across central/northern VT. However, skies should trend mostly sunny areawide. Should see NW winds 10-20 mph areawide on Thursday with dewpoints falling into the upper 40s late Thursday and remaining low through Thursday night and Friday. Winds will generally be light Thursday night and Friday. High temperatures will be in the mid-upper 70s Thursday, but then generally in the lower 70s on Friday, with some upper 60s expected across the nrn Adirondacks and Vermont's Northeast Kingdom.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 222 AM EDT Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected through the long-term period. However, rain chances will increase Friday night into Saturday as quasi-stationary frontal zone develops across the southern tier of NY into southern New England. There is some question as to how far north the frontal zone will lift, which will affect precipitation chances, especially across northern sections of the North Country. At this point, NBM suggests 70-80% PoPs across the southern half of VT and the Adirondacks, with PoPs closer to 60% for the intl border region. Model soundings show potential for modest elevated instability. Have not included tstms with this forecast package, but will need to monitor for the potential for embedded convective elements and a few embedded thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday. With the North Country generally expected to be north of the sfc front, widespread clouds and light northerly flow will likely keep most locations in the 60s for temperatures on Saturday. Drier conditions are generally favored by GEFS and ECMWF ensemble Sunday into Monday of next week. Looks like the potential exists for building heat and humidity toward the middle of next week, with temperatures finally climbing back into the 80s Tuesday and especially by next Wednesday. Based on current indications, the increasing heat and humidity will likely be the primary weather story by the middle of next week.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 06Z Thursday...Fog has developed across most of the protected valleys in Vermont, Particularly in the Connecticut and White River Valleys. The only site seeing fog restrictions is RUT where visibilities have largely been under 1SM with ceilings 100-200 fg agl. The fog may have periods where it bounces to MVFR, but for the remainder of the overnight, IFR to LIFR conditions should be prevailing. MPV is the only other site that could see impacts, however, confidence is much lower, even though the city of Montpelier is in fog. Southerly winds just off the ground 5-10 knots should be enough to maintain mixing at all other terminals to remain fog free. Any fog by 12Z should mix out with all terminals returning to VFR. Southwesterly flow will increase winds, especially in northern New York during the day today with gusts increasing to 20-30 knots, with sustained winds 10-15 knots. These gusty winds will continue through much of the remaining TAF period.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.