textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 128 PM EST Monday...

No significant adjustments were needed.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 128 PM EST Monday...

1. Warm temperatures continue through Wednesday with potential for highs exceeding a few daily records Wednesday afternoon.

2. Light rain showers are possible on Tuesday afternoon and evening, then widespread rain is expected Thursday into Friday morning.

3. Precip lingers for several days behind the cold front

DISCUSSION

As of 128 PM EST Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: High pressure 1034 mb centered over the mid Atlantic coast this afternoon will continue to drift slowly eastward into the Atlantic Ocean this week, turning flow over northern New York and Vermont more southerly. This will result in a warming trend today through Wednesday, although some shower chances towards the Canadian border Tuesday afternoon may stunt warmth locally, particularly along the international border. Highs on Tuesday will be widespread 60s with overnight lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. The warmest day of the week will be Wednesday with deep layer winds advecting warm air out of the south/southeasterly directions under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Low and mid 70s are anticipated for Wednesday afternoon, with lows that night as warm as the 40s to mid 50s. A few spots could exceed their daily records, particularly in the St. Lawrence Valley of New York. Warmth recedes slightly on Thursday, but conditions remain warm with widespread highs in the 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A weak wave will be moving along a ridge's northern periphery Tuesday and Tuesday night, bringing rain shower chances mainly to northern New York and the northern half of Vermont. Amounts will be light given that it will be moving into a ridge, with projected rainfall up to 0.15 inches at most, highest along the international border. Breezy southerly winds are also likely in north south oriented valleys Tuesday night after the showers pass through. Then on Thursday, rain will spread eastward through our region, driven by a frontal boundary attached to an elongated low pressure stretched from the Great Lakes to Quebec, Canada. Winds will be breezy out of the south with gusts up to 20-25 mph, particularly Thursday morning ahead of steady precipitation. Most likely period for rainfall is Thursday for northern New York, then Thursday night for Vermont. Some upslope flow could mean highest precipitation amounts on western slopes of the Adirondacks and Greens. Precipitation amounts in 24 hours reaching a half inch or more look fairly unlikely, with perhaps the best chance of these higher amounts in the Adirondacks and southern half of Vermont, closest to the stream of moisture coming off the Gulf. All precipitation should be rain with this system, and we're not expecting a dramatic cooldown until at least this weekend. More on the extended forecast below.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Following Friday's frontal passage, we'll have several days of active weather. A secondary low pressure forms downstream of the front. This secondary low will meander eastward with precip rotating around the center of the low. At this point, we can't nail down the timing but expect chance to likely rain from Friday evening through Sunday. One of the questions we will need to answer is how quickly that secondary low moves. If it moves quickly, Friday and Saturday will be largely wet while Sunday will be drier. If the system is more cutoff and slower moving, Sunday will trend wetter. Either way, we should see multiple inches of rain over the period which will help mitigate the expanding drought we've been seeing.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR will continue with moderate southwest winds through the daylight hours. Surface winds will decrease overnight, but winds aloft will prevent any fog formation. Clouds will move in from the northwest tomorrow morning, with MVFR ceilings possible by 15z at SLK. Light rain will start at MSS by 16z.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely RA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.

CLIMATE

Temperatures could approach record highs on November 4th, with the greatest chance of surpassing the record at KMSS.

Site | Record | Forecast KMSS | 71 (2022) | 73 KBTV | 73 (1982) | 71 KPBG | 72 (1990) | 70 KMPV | 72 (2022) | 72

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.