textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 218 AM EDT Friday...

No significant changes have been made with this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 218 AM EDT Friday...

1. Isolated to scattered rain showers possible this afternoon with another round of frost expected overnight.

2. A series of frontal boundaries will bring rainfall to the North Country and northern New York this weekend.

3. Generally quiet weather for the middle and later portions of next week with a few showers possible Thursday, but with little impact.

DISCUSSION

As of 218 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A very low amplitude shortwave trough will likely pass through the region prior to peak heating this afternoon and could spark a few showers. Near dry adiabatic low level and mid level lapse rates could support a few "stronger" showers that could bring some moderate rainfall will be possible. Given the low melting layer, some graupel or very small hail may also be possible. A plethora of dry air in the low levels will likely keep any precipitation at the surface on the low side with well under a tenth of an inch of rainfall expected from the shower activity this afternoon. Skies will clear again overnight with light winds expected. This will once again help frost formation outside of the Champlain Valley, thus no frost headlines are warranted given the current status of the growing season.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A warm front will lift north across the region on Saturday. Rainfall is expected across portions of souther and central Vermont as well as the Adirondacks as the deep layer moisture likely remains shunted to our south with the mid level vorticity maximum located over northern Vermont. We are still looking at under a quarter of an inch of rain across southern Vermont with northern Vermont and much of northern New York likely to remain on the dry side throughout the day on Saturday. A cold front will push through Sunday morning and bring more widespread rainfall to the region. This rain should be light, overall, given the lack of instability and weak upper level forcing but it could provide another widespread wetting rain to help quell any fire concerns across the region. Monday should also be unsettled as we will still remain under the influence of a synoptic scale upper level low with a few weak disturbances pushing across the region. With the lack of any low level convergence, rain showers will be widely scattered and may be tied to the higher elevations.

KEY MESSAGE 3: National guidance continues to support the idea that the Northeast will lie under broad cyclonic upper troughing of modest amplitude for the Tue-Fri time frame. Dry weather should be the rule for much of this period, though shortwave energy may spark some scattered shower activity by Thursday or so. Confidence is only modest in regard to timing and areal coverage/precipitation amounts with this feature. Temperatures should average slightly on the cool side Tuesday, with moderation expected toward mid-May seasonal norms by the late week time frame under a mainly light wind regime.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 12Z Saturday...SCT/BKN VFR cigs from 050-100 AGL expected through the forecast period. A few/widely scattered light showers/sprinkles possible in the 17-23Z time frame this afternoon, but paucity of coverage and limited impacts to operations warrants no mention in the terminal forecasts at this time. Winds trending mainly west to west-southwesterly from 07-12 kts (occasionally gusty into the 15-18 kt range at KSLK/KMSS this afternoon) before abating after sunset tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.