textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 120 PM EST Monday...Snowfall rates are decreasing as the main area of forcing tracks through the region. Additional snowfall amounts may accumulate up to three inches through this evening.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 120 PM EST Monday...

1. Light to moderate snow will yield up to an additional 3 inches of snow, with storm totals ranging between 7 to 16 inches.

2. Below normal temperatures are expected through this week with just a few periodic chances for light snow showers, mainly in the Lake Ontario snowbelts and in the northern mountains. In particular, Thursday night into Friday morning could be quite cold with potentially hazardous wind chills especially in northern New York.

DISCUSSION

As of 120 PM EST Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: The upper trough is swinging through the region this afternoon with snowfall rates beginning to decrease. Some spots in northern New York are seeing some breaks in clouds. However, as the what is essentially weak deformation behind the upper low circulation tracks through, snow chances will increase briefly again behind a relative dry slot. An additional dusting to couple inches is possible for northern New York and up to three inches for portions of Vermont is expected through this evening. Models are indicating drier air moving in earlier than 1 AM, so the warning may end up being truncated. Following snowfall, winds will remain coupled through part of the night resulting in wind chills -10 to -15 degrees for northern New York and -15 to -30 for higher elevations overnight into Tuesday morning.

.KEY MESSAGE 2: Broad cyclonic flow will keep cold air funneling into the region this week. Ambient temperatures will remain cold with highs generally around 10 to 15 degrees and lows in the single digit around zero. Some light lake effect showers are anticipated for Tuesday with downwind transport to the northern Greens. Totals associated with this will generally be less than 1" as the band wavers southward by Wednesday.

The coldest temperatures currently look to be Thursday night into early Friday morning, where overnight low temperatures look to drop into the single digits to teens below zero. Based on the latest NBM forecast, apparent temperatures look to be anywhere from -10F to - 20F across the region, with portions of the Adirondacks closer to - 30F or even colder at summit level. Cold Weather headlines may be needed as we get closer if this trend continues. As far as precipitation chances go, some light snow showers look possible throughout the week with some light additional snow accumulations possible. Some of the latest model guidance suggests the potential for another coastal system for next weekend, which could potentially bring another chance for widespread snow, however there is still plenty of uncertainty regarding the low track and overall evolution of this system. Be sure to stayed tuned for updates and monitor trends as we get closer.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 18Z Tuesday...Currently light snow continues with a mix of IFR and MVFR cigs and vis. Generally expect light snow with several periods of moderate snow possible to prevail for the next couple of hours, before conditions slowly improve toward 00z, especially our northern NY taf sites (MSS/SLK and PBG). Surface vis generally in the 1-2SM range with intervals of LIFR 1/2-3/4SM possible at times thru 22z, before improving to 3-5SM with lingering MVFR cigs. Winds are generally northwest at 4 to 8 knots, except some localized higher gusts possible at BTV btwn 22z-04z this evening. Additional snow shower activity is possible aft 12z Tuesday acrs our northern NY taf sites, which could spread into VT sites toward 18z with a combination of MVFR/IFR conditions likely.

EQUIPMENT

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for VTZ001>011- 016>021. NY...Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ026>031-034- 035-087.