textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 130 PM EST Saturday...Light snow will come to an end later this evening. Confidence is increasing for possibility of snow squalls Monday afternoon into the evening, especially in northern New York.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 130 PM EST Saturday...

1. Light snow will be winding down this evening as drier air moves into our area. A Winter Weather Advisory in effect for Rutland and Windsor counties until 7 pm.

2. Winds will become strong out of the southwest on Monday ahead of approaching cold front, with snow squalls possible ahead of the cold front during the afternoon into the evening.

3. An unseasonably cold and unsettled pattern is expected for next week with multiple chances for snow and temperatures possibly sub-zero at times.

DISCUSSION

As of 130 PM EST Saturday...

.KEY MESSAGE 1: Light snow continues this afternoon and will wind down this evening. Low level flow will then become more southwesterly and some snow showers off of Lake Ontario are possible in the southern St Lawrence valley and into the Adirondacks. A few inches of snow is possible in the most persistent snow bands. Temperatures overnight will drop into the teens to mid 20s. Quieter weather will then return through early Monday.

.KEY MESSAGE 2: On Monday another low pressure system will pass from the northern Great Lakes area, northeastward and well north of our area. Tighten pressure gradient will lead to gusty winds out of the south southwest on Monday. Models currently support surface gusts 30-40 mph in the St Lawrence Valley and around 30 mph for the northern Champlain Valley. Deep mixing is present in model soundings with a 5kft+ depth of saturation. Coupled with modest CAPE and a passing trough, there could be a few squalls in northern New York as bursts of lake enhanced snow showers move through. These gusts could support periods of blowing snow resulting in an extended period of poor visibility for portions of northern New York while allowing for lighter snow showers to penetrate into northern Vermont. Just getting into the window of the NAMnest which is supportive of this possibility.

.KEY MESSAGE 3: Overall pattern Tues through Saturday is cold, cyclonic flow with multiple cold fronts replenishing cold air with light snow-snow showers on several days but no big storm attm.

First one has pushed through the area by Tuesday with flow backing a bit more westerly for Lake Effect Snow band across Lake Ontario. Initially mainly south of forecast area but with this initial shortwave exiting and more backing flow ahead of next strong shortwave look for band to rotate north into our area.

Surface low travels NW of area across Ontario-Quebec with some warm air advection light snow Wed ngt with sharpening upper trof and arctic front moving across for Thursday with snow showers and possibly some snow squalls as well. This sharpening trof and strong temperature discontinuity off the east coast will likely develop a coastal storm but too far east for any impacts in our area.

By Friday...flow becomes WSW again with surface high across the area and lighter winds. Rinse and repeat Friday night-Saturday with a weaker shortwave but surface wave on the backside of ridge for another chance of light snow late Friday-Friday night before another cold front on Saturday.

Attm...there are discrepancies on whether we get hit with more arctic air or does the main core stay north into Ontario-Quebec next weekend-early next week. The main story is this cold pattern is likely to continue for some time as CPC has area likely below normal through Days 8-14.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 18Z Sunday...A developing wave of low pressure to our east is helping organize an area of snow on its northwestern flank. This snow will be steady primarily at terminals in Vermont from RUT to MPV to EFK through much of the next six hours, tapering off gradually most likely between 22Z and 00Z. At BTV, a shorter duration of snow is possible, although confidence is relatively low with PROB30 utilized. On the western fringe of the precipitation shield, from SLK to PBG, probabilities of snow are even lower and expect only brief periods of IFR conditions associated with this precipitation could occur. Very light snow has been falling at MSS with localized northeasterly flow, and do not see much change over the next several hours at this terminal. Areawide, character of snow will tend to be fluffy, especially when it falls more heavily, rather than wet.

Past 00Z, while precipitation chances diminish, another area of low pressure will pass to our northwest and help produce some gusty winds over northern New York, most notably at MSS where gusts over 30 knots are possible as soon as 03Z but especially around 05Z when probabilities of wind gusts exceeding 30 knots peaks. Gusty southwest winds are also probable at SLK, while other sites are less likely to mix these winds to the surface. Ceilings throughout the period will be variable but be a mix of VFR and MVFR.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Martin Luther King Jr Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SN. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR and IFR possible. Likely SN, Chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.

EQUIPMENT

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ011- 019>021. NY...None.