textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 231 AM EDT Monday...

No significant changes have been made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 231 AM EDT Monday...

1. Rounds of showers will continue throughout the day today, with conditions trending drier for Tuesday and mid-week as high pressure builds into the region

2. Our next chance for rain will be with a cold frontal passage Thursday into Friday, followed by cooler weather for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 231 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Another day of cool and showery weather is expected across the region today as additional rounds of showers move through the region as the system to our south slowly drifts eastward. Greatest rainfall amounts for today are expected across eastern and southern Vermont, where totals are expected to be between 0.25 and 0.5 inches of rain, while northern New York looks to remain on the drier side. The showers and cloud cover will keep temperatures on the cool side for this time of year, with highs only climbing into the upper 50s and low 60s.

Shower activity will gradually wane through the evening and overnight hours tonight as the low shifts away, with drier weather conditions expected to prevail throughout much of the day Tuesday as high pressure begins to build into the region. The drier conditions are expected to continue through much of the week, with temperatures gradually trending warmer as well. High temperatures on Tuesday will only be in the 50s and lower 60s again, but by Thursday widespread highs in the 70s are expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front will make its way southward across our region late Thursday into Friday, bringing increasing chances of precipitation along with it. The best forcing will remain well to our north, so anticipate scattered to perhaps widespread showers, mostly light to occasionally moderate in nature. Thunder is not anticipated given the unfavorable timing of the frontal passage (overnight Thu into early Fri AM). High pressure will immediately follow the front, ushering in a drier and cooler airmass for at least the first half of the weekend. Sunday is a bit less certain; the 00z GFS and to a lesser extent, the 00z CMC indicate a wave of precipitation lifting into our region sometime Sunday. The deterministic GFS is the most aggressive with this feature, though it does the support of a few of its ensemble members, along with some GEPS members, as well. Didn't get a chance to look at the 00z ECMWF, but the 12z run held off any precipitation until Sunday night/Monday, though again, some of its ensemble members show a rainy and cool Sunday. Given these differences, have stayed with the WPC/NBM forecast, which gives low chance PoPs for Sunday. Temperatures will be warmest on Friday, in the mid 60s to near 70F, then trending cooler with highs in the 60s and lows in the low 30s to low 40s.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 06Z Tuesday...Scattered showers will persist through the first several hours of the TAF period, becoming more widespread from 12z onward, particularly after 18z. A mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings early in the period will eventually lower to MVFR at all terminals as moisture increases. Can't rule out IFR conditions, especially as we head toward 00z Tue. Have gone with ceilings below 1000 ft at MPV/SLK/RUT where confidence in IFR is highest. Showers have mainly been handled with PROB30 given the scattered nature, but prevailing -SHRA has been included for the afternoon at most terminals. Visibility mainly 4-6SM in any precipitation. Rain will wind down after 23z, but wouldn't be surprised for lingering fog or drizzle to keep visibilities 4-6SM for the remainder of the TAF period. N/NE winds remain light through the period, mainly less than 10 kt. Some LLWS is possible at RUT/EFK for the first 4-6 hours of the TAF period, but LLJ will move out as low pressure pulls away from the region.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.