textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 249 AM EDT Saturday...

No major changes have been made to the forecast. Isolated to scattered showers are possible late this afternoon and evening, but coverage has decreased slightly from the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 249 AM EDT Saturday...

1. Seasonably warm temperatures are expected this weekend, with a few isolated to scattered showers possible later this afternoon into the evening.

2. Above normal temperatures are expected for the first half of the week ahead.

3. Thunderstorm chances increase late Tuesday through Wednesday as a front moves through the region.

DISCUSSION

As of 249 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A weak shortwave moving across the region will bring some isolated to scattered showers to the region late this afternoon into the evening, with northern New York more likely to see shower activity. The latest CAM guidance has decreased in the areal coverage of showers, especially across Vermont. Despite the shower chances, any precipitation would be quite light, generally less than 0.1 inches with measurable precipitation most likely across northern New York. In addition to the shower chances, breezy conditions are expected this afternoon with a developing low level jet overhead. While there is some uncertainty as to how much winds mix down to the surface, localized wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph are possible across northern New York tonight, with some breezy conditions continuing into Sunday across the region. Temperatures this weekend will be quite pleasant, with high temperatures generally warming into the 70s both Saturday and Sunday, with a few locations nearing 80. Despite the warm air temperatures, water temperatures are still quite cold so use caution if recreating this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A warming trend will continue into the first half of next week as a warm front lifts across the region on Monday. Tuesday looks to be the warmest day, with high temperatures climbing into the 80s for most locations, with 925mb temperatures around 20C to 25C. These temperatures will be the warmest of the year so far, especially after a cool start to the month, so it is important to remember to stay safe in warmer temperatures by staying hydrated and take frequent breaks if working outside. Dewpoints will also be trending upwards going into Tuesday, making it feel quite humid especially for this time of year. The warmth and humidity will result in increasing instability, which will support the development of showers and possible thunderstorms for Tuesday, which could impact how warm temperatures climb during the day Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 3: As heat and humidity build Tuesday, so will instability with a front projected to drop out of Canada. Dew points will likely range in the 50s and 60s ahead of the front with residual heating from daytime possibly continuing to trigger convection as heights fall aloft. Tuesday night into Wednesday, models continue to show a frontal passage that will likely be a focal point for convection as it tracks through the region. Timing of the front is currently during the day hours suggesting added instability associated with heating is probable. This pattern shows some potential for a few stronger variety storms with highs in excess of 80 degrees again Wednesday, but changes in frontal timing could limit or move the window of concern. So Tuesday/Wednesday will be a "keep an eye on" for now situation.

Later next week, drier conditions and more seasonable temperatures are favored to return.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 12Z Sunday...VFR conditions will persist through the afternoon today with southerly flow resulting in gusts generally to around 20kts. Some gusts up to 30kts are possible at MSS this afternoon with flow aligned with the St Lawrence Valley. 22-04Z a weak trough will move through the region bringing isolated to scattered rain showers. Best shower chances will be generally over northern New York and higher terrain of the Greens which will lead to mountain obscurations. Winds and precip chances diminish after 04Z as the trough exits. There could be another round of low CIGs/fog if skies can clear quickly enough behind the wave, but left that out for now due to low certainty.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.