textproduct: Burlington
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
As of 315 AM EDT Monday...
No significant changes.
KEY MESSAGES
As of 315 AM EDT Monday...
1. Mostly dry and quiet week.
2. Warmer and drier period of weather is expected from Thursday through Sunday.
DISCUSSION
As of 315 AM EDT Monday...
KEY MESSAGE 1: For the past several days, large scale troughing has been in place and large-scale ridging has been stationed out west. That will flip this week as the troughing moves out to the east and the ridging builds in. This will lead to an almost completely dry week and a warming trend. The only real shower chance is today and at most an isolated sprinkle or two would fall. Ideal radiational cooling will occur the next few nights so patchy frost will be possible in the coldest hollows of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom, but temperatures should stay above 40 for most places. Highs will be in the 60s for most places today and rise into the 80s for most places by the end of the week, but dew points will stay low.
KEY MESSAGE 2: An upper level ridge will build into the area from Wednesday night into early Friday. Maximum temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. A weak surface trough will cross the area Friday bringing chance for rain showers. Saturday and Sunday will remain pretty warm with temperatures just a few degrees cooler than Thursday and Friday. A better chance for showers will arrive Saturday night into Sunday with both a surface front and some decent upper level shortwave energy. This far out, there is plenty of time for things to shift a bit.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 12Z Tuesday...Low ceilings remain at all sites except BTV at 1125z. Conditions will improve to VFR by about 13z. There is also still a visibility reduction at MPV with some BR lingering. Ceilings and fog should all lift as mixing picks up. Winds are light and variable, and will become north or northeast at 5 to 10 knots today, then light again overnight. Skies will trend FEW or SCT with perhaps a few cumulus clouds in the afternoon.
Outlook...
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None. NY...None.
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