textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 305 PM EDT Thursday...

No significant changes have been made.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 305 PM EDT Thursday...

1. Localized gusty north winds this evening will taper off, then dry and seasonable weather with a warming trend will follow through the weekend.

2. Quiet and dry weather is expected to continue into early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 305 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Sensible weather will continue to be quite agreeable for outdoor activities. Aside from a ribbon of clouds moving through from north to south this evening, a return to sunny days is expected as high pressure slowly builds in through the weekend. Main impacts for this period will be related to winds this evening on Lake Champlain, and then possible fire weather concerns over the weekend with critically low relative humidity values likely in parts of the region.

A moisture-starved cold front passed through the region today, detached from a ribbon of higher moisture behind it. Satellite imagery shows this cloud cover is tied to a corridor of higher relative humidity in the 925-850 millibar layer, with the air mass above that layer very dry. Hence, north of this region there are just some diurnally driven clouds and we can expect skies in our region to trend clear overnight.

A period of relatively fast pressure rises this evening is expected with accelerated northerly flow through the Champlain Valley as skies clear out again. Roughly between 7 PM and 10 PM we expect the strongest northerly winds in the 20 to 30 knot range on Lake Champlain with similar gusts in the eastern Champlain Valley. Northerly, rather than a more common northwesterly, flow will continue into Friday with a general decay of wind speeds as high pressure builds in.

The lightening wind will lead to a chilly night and have leaned towards colder guidance. At perennial cool spot SLK/Adirondack Regional Airport, a daily minimum temperature is possible (14 degrees). Any passing high clouds should have little affect on surface temperatures during the period. Also, as temperatures moderate aloft, both Saturday and Sunday will feature the return of the typical cold season surface inversion with mountain summits relative mild. Generally Sunday morning looks a bit less cold than Saturday morning as light south winds will interfere with the nocturnal boundary layer.

Forecast soundings through the next three days show very dry air aloft and correspondingly anomalously low precipitable water. While localized low humidity is expected tomorrow, cool northerly advection doesn't favor particularly low surface humidity at the surface. Dew points in the 20s are expected over the next couple of days, and with milder temperatures on Saturday reaching the upper 50s in most locations, this is the day when most locations will likely see their lowest relative humidities. Slight improvement on Sunday is expected with regards to fire weather concerns as some modest moisture advection occurs. Light winds through the weekend should minimize fire spread, however.

KEY MESSAGE 2: The stretch of quiet and dry weather looks continue into next week as the region remains under the influence of high pressure. The ridge axis will shift slightly eastward late Sunday into Monday, allowing for some light southwest flow and warmer temperatures. Daytime high temperatures on Monday look to warm into the upper 50s to mid 60s. A weak cold front looks to move through late Monday, but it will be quite moisture starved with no precipitation expected from this feature. Some cooler air will move in behind the front, with high temperatures on Tuesday expected to be in the mid 40s to low 50s. At this time, it looks like the dry stretch will continue through much of next week. Despite the prolonged stretch of dryness, winds look to remain light enough to limit any fore weather concerns at this time.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 12Z Friday...Despite a prolonged detachment from rain, and anticipated persistence forecasting, area of localized fog has developed around MPV/SLK this morning, with VCFG at RUT. Any lingering IFR vis/cig reductions are expected to trend to VFR by 13Z. Beyond 13Z, a weak frontal boundary will pass through generally between 15-17Z as light and variable winds turn prevailing from the north. As the front moves through, increasing clouds will lower scattered cigs towards 3000-4000ft agl. Winds will increase slightly behind the front through the rest of the day with north winds around 10 knots across Vermont, and occasional gusts between 15-20 knots. In northern New York, any gusts should remain below 15 knots. Winds weaken after 00Z towards light and terrain driven. Another clear and calm night is expected for all terminals tonight, with some hints at repeat fog at MSS/SLK/MPV, though it will be tied to the later portion of tonight, with some subtle flow aloft in the beginning portion of the night limiting early fog development. Given low confidence at this time, have left out any fog or terminal reductions in this TAF package.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

MARINE

A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued for this afternoon and evening during a period of marginally strong north flow. Winds today have gradually ramped up, particularly in the broad and southern waters as typical for these events. Expect they will mainly be 20 to 30 knots through this evening before gradually subsiding overnight into the 15 to 25 knot range, and then 10 to 20 knot range by daybreak. Corresponding peak wave heights will tend to be 2 to 4 feet, with localized 3 to 5 feet briefly near Willsboro Point towards midnight, and then relax into the 1 to 3 feet range overnight.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.