textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 310 AM EDT Thursday...

No major changes to the forecast. Widespread wetting rain is ongoing through the morning hours. Frost expected the next few nights.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 310 AM EDT Thursday...

1. Widespread wetting rain is ongoing.

2. Unsettled and cooler conditions through the weekend.

3. Unsettled weather expected much of next week with multiple chances for precipitation.

DISCUSSION

As of 310 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: As a cold front crosses the area widespread wetting rain is falling and will continue through the morning hours. Widespread rain will end this morning, with some scattered showers continuing across parts of Vermont before ending later today. Cooler conditions begin today with high temperatures only expected to reach the 50s areawide. Rainfall totals will range from over an inch in parts of the St Lawrence valley down to about four tenths of an inch in parts of Vermont where some downsloping will cut back on precipitation totals.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Following departure of cold front, our region will be situated under an upper level low which will provide the area with cooler temperatures and some unsettled weather is also expected. Isolated to scattered showers are expected each day, especially in the higher elevations of northern New York and Vermont. Daytime maximum temperatures will generally be in the 50s, with lows dipping into the 30s. Will need to monitor potential for frost advisory in the Champlain valley where we are now issuing headlines for the growing season and threats for frost.

KEY MESSAGE 3: We'll be under fairly fast, progressive flow aloft through at least the first part of the week, with weak disturbances moving through from time to time. The result will be rounds of light showers, though exactly where/when is hard to pinpoint this far out. There are some indications the pattern could become more amplified mid to late week, with a more robust frontal system lifting through the Northeast CONUS. This points toward potentially more widespread and significant precipitation, but there's still a lot of discrepancies on how this system evolves. Temperatures look to remain seasonable through the period though, with highs in the 50s/60s and lows in the 30s/40s.

AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 06Z Friday...A mix of conditions this TAF period, but overall expect MVFR/IFR in widespread showers for much of the time. Visibility generally 4-6SM in rain, but ceilings below 1000 ft are likely at KMSS/KSLK through at least the first 8-12 hours. Elsewhere, probabilities of ceilings under 1000 ft are low, and so have gone with BKN-OVC 1200-2800 for much of the TAF period at the other terminals. Rain comes to an end from west to east after 16z, and ceilings slowly lift thereafter, reaching MVFR/VFR by 00z. Light south/southeast winds overnight will turn to the west/northwest with a frontal passage Thursday morning.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Patchy frost. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.