textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 746 PM EDT Thursday...

The Wind Advisory is no longer in effect across the region.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 308 PM EDT Thursday...

1. As the risk of severe thunderstorms and heavy rain ends this afternoon, more localized and non-severe thunderstorms will remain possible through this evening, especially near the International Border. Additional showers with a slight chance of thunder will occur at times through each of the next three days with limited impacts expected.

2. A Wind Advisory remains through 8 PM, although the threat of damaging winds has decreased. Breezy, but less strong, winds will continue through Saturday associated with the low pressure system as it slowly exits to our northeast.

3. Seasonable Late June Temperatures Early-Mid Next Week

DISCUSSION

As of 344 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A dynamically forced line of heavy rain showers with embedded severe thunderstorms materialized today, but thankfully instability proved too limited to see more significant winds in most of the region. Moving into the evening, because the surface cold front lags behind this line, there will be additional shower and thunderstorm chances, primarily in far northern New York where a line of thunderstorms has move along the St. Lawrence River Valley, and perhaps swinging eastward into Vermont. The near storm environment is very different than the one we have seen with the earlier impactful thunderstorms, with less precipitable water associated with dry mid-level air and lower shear, with effective shear only near 30 knots. So the main hazard with any additional thunderstorms will be frequent lightning. This will be the trend into the weekend with additional rounds of showers, with a lack of wind shear and cooler temperatures we don't expect any severe weather. A broad upper level trough with embedded upper level circulations will promote periods of numerous showers, such as on Friday evening and Saturday morning in particular looking rather raw for this time of year with breezy west winds and cool temperatures into the 50s. A final round of scattered showers on Sunday afternoon looks less certain with the forcing being unclear, but signal in increasing precipitation chances is consistent with diurnally driven instability as the air mass moderates a bit and we have lingering moist low level air in place.

KEY MESSAGE 2: We have seen substantial wind damage today despite largely underachieving on observed winds so far through mid afternoon. Given the reports and continued potential for gusty west to southwest winds this evening, the Wind Advisory remains in effect through 8 PM. The winds aloft are largely westerly at this point, which leads to some concerns of downsloping enhancement into the mid-slope areas in the eastern Adirondacks and southern Greens, with areas like Ticonderoga likely to see additional 45 to 50 MPH wind gusts and perhaps into areas like Bridgewater later this evening as westerly 850 millibar flow peaks. As with the thunderstorm potential, impactful winds through the next couple of days are not expected although gradient westerly flow on Friday and northwest flow on Saturday will support deeper mixing. Gusts will be frequent but more notable in the higher terrain as apparent temperature (wind chills) fall into the 40s at elevations above 3000 feet.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Hazardous weather is not expected in the Days 4-7 period. 12Z NWP suite maintains broad NWLY mid-upper level flow for late in the weekend through the middle portion of next week. Uncertainty associated with timing of embedded shortwave troughs remains, with current idea that closed upper low approaching from the upper Great Lakes will bring widespread showers across nrn NY and VT on Sunday. Associated cloud cover should keep highs mainly in the 70s, with some upper 60s possible in the nrn Adirondacks. Additional (smaller) chances for rain showers exist Monday and Tuesday. Gradual building of 700-500mb heights Tuesday-Wednesday should allow temperatures to trend slightly warmer for Days 6/7, with valley highs trending into the lower 80s. Humidity levels will remain modest, with dewpoints generally in the 50s to near 60.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 00Z Saturday...After an active afternoon, VFR conditions currently prevail across the region with some lingering shower activity. VFR conditions are expected throughout most of the forecast period, although some MVFR ceilings are expected at some of the northern New York terminals, especially KSLK. Winds will continue to remain breezy over the next 24 hours, with gusts up to 25mph or so possible at most terminals. Some periods of LLWS will continue, coming to an end by 12Z. A few chances for showers will be possible tomorrow afternoon, especially at northern terminals.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

CLIMATE

As of 308 PM EDT Thursday... Daily record precipitation amount was achieved for the Saranac Lake Area, so far at 1.16" for the day. A daily record precipitation for Montpelier is possible as well, with the current amount at 0.73".

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.