textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 226 AM EDT Sunday...

Precipitation chances across south-central Vermont have increased this morning with an area of showers tracking through from west to east.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 236 AM EDT Sunday... 1. After a few showers this morning, drier conditions return this afternoon through early Monday.

2. Shower and thunderstorm chances return later Monday through early Tuesday as a weak front moves through the region.

3. Unsettled weather continues for the latter half of the week ahead, with temperatures trending slightly below normal by the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 236 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers are tracking across the southern Adirondacks into south-central Vermont this hour and will continue to move through over the morning hours. While a rumble of thunder cannot be completely ruled out. Another area of instability is moving through southern Canada towards the border. Isolated to scattered showers are possible in this area through the morning with a few thunderstorms possible by noon. Coverage will be decreasing by mid-afternoon with drier conditions moving into the region through Monday. Temperatures will again be warm today, but a degree or so cooler than yesterday with highs in the mid/upper 70s to low/mid 80s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A front will approach late Monday bringing more widespread chances of showers and thunderstorms. However, flow aloft will be increasingly zonal resulting in weaker surface features and less forcing along the boundary. So, strong storms are not very likely. Winds behind the front will align with Lake Champlain supporting rough lake conditions late Monday into Tuesday. Another dry period is likely Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday with temperatures and RH continuing to slowly decrease. Highs around 80 degrees with dew points in the 50s will feel like a treat compared to recent muggy conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Unsettled weather is expected to continue through the second half of next week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms and an overall trend towards cooler temperatures towards the weekend. Zonal flow across the region will allow for several quick shortwaves to move through, bringing chances for showers although the progressive flow will limit hydro concerns. As of now, Thursday looks to be the day with the greatest chances for showers, with some possible thunderstorms in the afternoon. Of course, the timing of any of these shortwaves and shower chances may chance as we get closer. Looking towards the end of the week, the upper-level flow will amplify as ridging builds over the western US with downstream troughing over the eastern US/Canada. The cyclonic flow over the northeastern US will favor a continuation of scattered showers with slightly below normal temperatures for the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 06Z Monday...Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon, peaking between 18Z and 22Z. Any thunderstorms that do materialize will be pulse-like in nature, and are not expected to last long. Given the isolated coverage and brief duration of individual storms, have left mention of thunderstorms out of all TAFs at this point. However, will be watching radar closely and will amend to include tstorms if terminals are expected to be impacted. Any thunderstorms or showers that do go over a terminal may briefly bring MVFR/IFR visibilities and MVFR ceilings, but outside of precipitation conditions are expected to remain predominantly VFR.

Overnight tonight, expect ceilings and visibilities to lower as a mix of low stratus and mist/fog develops. Forecast soundings suggest fog is most likely in climatologically favoured valleys of central and eastern Vermont, where low-level winds will remain lighter than over northern New York. Meanwhile, an area of stratus looks likely to develop over northern New York, especially over the northern Adirondacks after 06Z. Just how expansive the stratus will get is lower confidence, and for now have just introduced a SCT003 layer at KMSS. However, there is the possibility that KMSS could also see a period of IFR or LIFR ceilings mainly between 06Z and 12Z. The overnight stratus and fog is unlikely to affect the Champlain Valley terminals, and have forecasted VFR conditions overnight for KBTV, KPBG, and KRUT.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.