textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 231 PM EDT Thursday...

Precipitation chances have increased slightly for Friday. Shower coverage still uncertain for the weekend, though neither day looks like a washout.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 231 PM EDT Thursday...

1. After a cold, frosty night tonight, isolated to scattered showers are expected on Friday.

2. Mixed chances for precipitation over the weekend with uncertainty in areal coverage of showers each day.

3. Cool temperatures and a few shower chances next week but no significant precipitation.

DISCUSSION

As of 231 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Today's been somewhat cool and breezy, but overall a pleasant day with partly sunny skies under scattered fair weather cumulus. These clouds will dissipate this evening, giving way to mostly clear conditions overnight. HIgh pressure briefly noses in tonight, so winds will become light to near calm as the pressure gradient slackens. Given current dewpoints are in the mid 20s to mid 30s this afternoon, optimal radiational cooling conditions means we'll have the potential for frost across much of the forecast area. The growing season is only considered to have started in the Champlain Valley, so it's only here that we'd consider any Frost Advisories. However, it's still uncertain how pervasive frost will be in the Champlain Valley, especially away from Lake Champlain. Outlying areas will likely see lows in the mid 30s, but it would only be for an hour or two, with marginal frost formation potential. Otherwise, would expect lows in the upper 30s to prevail in much of the Valley, while the rest of the forecast area will drop into the mid/upper 20s to low/mid 30s. Rather than confuse the issue by hoisting an Advisory for minimal areal coverage and marginal temperatures, have opted to forego any headlines for tonight and let the forecast speak for itself. However, anyone with sensitive outdoor vegetation may want to take precautions just in case, especially away from Lake Champlain.

Tomorrow will be another cool and breezy day, as we'll remain on the periphery of a large scale upper trough centered well to our north. Cold air aloft combined with daytime will allow for steep low level lapse rates, and like today, clouds will bubble up in response through the day. The main difference is we'll have a weak shortwave trough scooting by overhead, providing additional support for more extensive cloud cover along with isolated to scattered showers in spite of the fairly dry airmass. Highs will be similar to today; most places should get into the 50s, though some of the usual colder locations in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom may remain in the upper 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A weak low pressure system will move by to our north over the weekend, bringing a couple of fronts and associated precipitation to our region. However, models are still divided on exactly how things will evolve. The warm front lifts through New York/New England on Saturday, but the bulk of the precipitation associated with that still looks to remain focused across southern sections. There could be a fairly tight gradient on the northern edge of the showers though, so just a slight shift north or south could make a difference in whether one sees a mostly dry day or mostly rainy. Have therefore kept PoPs fairly broad for Saturday, with the highest chances over central/southern VT. Rainfall amounts will mainly be a quarter of an inch or less. Daytime highs will vary from the low/mid 60s north to the upper 50s south.

More showers are expected on Sunday with a cold frontal passage. There remains some spread on how quickly this passage occurs, but in general, expect the bulk of this rain to fall late Saturday night through Sunday morning. This time, the highest chances will be across the northern areas, especially in the higher terrain. But like Saturday, rainfall totals will be fairly meager, perhaps up to a quarter of an inch. Highs on Sunday will be similar to Saturday, except warmest south (and potentially into the mid 60s), with mid/upper 50s in the north.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Large scale troughing continues through much of next week, keeping temperatures around and below seasonable normals. While embedded shortwaves will bring a couple chances for showers, the majority of the time it will be dry. The combination of the cool airmass and high sun angle will cause some afternoon clouds and showers to develop, but they will remain scattered and relatively light. Due to the cool airmass there is frost potential next week, but that would require clear skies and light boundary layer winds overnight, something that remains uncertain at this time.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 18Z Friday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the next 24 hours. Winds will be gusty today out of the west and northwest. Peak gusts this afternoon will generally range between 15 to 25 KTs. Winds decrease steadily late this afternoon and evening, dropping below 10 KTs by 2- 3Z. A brief change to southerly is expected at BTV and maybe PBG late in the night and early tomorrow morning. Winds increase during the day tomorrow and become westerly to southwesterly, with magnitudes generally in the 10-20 KT range.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. Patchy frost. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.