textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 216 PM EDT Monday...

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 216 PM EDT Monday...

1. Breezes continue through the night into Tuesday with dry air moving into the region. Areas of frost are expected mainly outside the Champlain Valley Tuesday night.

2. Seasonable temperatures and periodic chances of light rain showers are expected for the latter half of the week.

DISCUSSION

As of 216 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Isolated to scattered showers will continue behind the front this afternoon into the evening. Once the sun sets, shower chances decrease with drier air working into the region. Through the night into Tuesday, northwesterly breezes will continue and slowly decrease. As such, the Lake Wind Advisory will continue into the evening hours. Gusts 20-30 mph can be expected in the Champlain Valley, especially for locations adjacent to Lake Champlain, into early Tuesday before slowly decreasing. Dry air aloft is evident in soundings and will lower to the surface as temperatures warm into the 50s resulting in lower than usual RH for these temperatures. The gradient weakens further Tuesday night with weak ridging cresting. This will support areas of frost, especially outside the Champlain Valley, as temperatures drop into the low/mid 30s for most valleys, except 20s to low 30s in the Adirondacks and northeastern Vermont.

The next wave approaches Wednesday with winds increasing again and turning out of the south. The primary wave will be displaced towards the James Bay, so best chances of showers will remain nearer to the Canadian border. Models favor stalling the parent low resulting in continued chances into Thursday as subsequent waves pinwheel around the low. Current guidance points to temperatures warming into the mid 60s Thursday supporting some isolated thunderstorm chances Thursday afternoon. Still, no large amounts of rain are expected with totals generally staying less then 0.25".

KEY MESSAGE 2: Heading towards the end of the week, seasonably cool conditions and periodic showers are expected. Daytime high temperatures will climb into the 50s to low 60s, with overnight lows in the 30s to mid 40s. An upper low to our north will allow for periods of showers throughout this week, especially across the higher terrain and locations further north towards the border. Although there will be several chances for showers, drier conditions look to return towards the weekend as ridging builds back into the region, although trends will need to be monitored as we get closer.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions currently prevail across the region, with a few scattered showers moving through this afternoon. Some brief periods of MVFR may be possible at terminals, especially if a shower passes overhead, but the overall confidence is low so PROB30s were utilized for the next few hours to cover this potential. While VFR conditions are expected for most of the forecast period, some MVFR ceilings may be possible overnight at KSLK and KEFK in particular. Main concern for aviators during the forecast period will be the breezy westerly winds. Winds this afternoon will continue to be between 10-17 knots sustained with gusts 20 to 30 knots through about 00Z. A brief lull in winds will be possible overnight, although several terminals may have gusts continue into the overnight. Winds will become more northwesterly for tomorrow, still remaining on the breezier side. Some pockets of LLWS will be possible tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. Patchy frost. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

MARINE

As of 216 PM EDT Monday...

A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for the entirety of Lake Champlain.Frequent northwesterly wind gusts of 25-30 kts and wave heights remaining 2 to 4 feet will continue through the afternoon into the evening. With the northwest flow wave funneling may occur with locally higher waves between 4 to 5 feet near the mouth Shelburne Bay and the east side of the Broad Waters towards Burlington Bay. Winds will decrease below advisory thresholds this evening and overnight.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.