textproduct: Burlington

SYNOPSIS

Temperatures trend colder tonight with most locations ranging from the single digits below zero to around minus fifteen degrees. Flurries and light snow are expected Monday as a weaker variety clipper system moves through the region. Then, temperatures trend warmer mid to late week with two potentially impactful systems bringing a mix wintry precipitation types to northern New York and Vermont.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

* A persistent lake enhanced snow band has formed over portions of Essex County, NY bringing localized snowfall amounts of 4 to 10 inches in the Moriah and Ticonderoga. This snowfall will likely continue through this evening and much of the overnight period - as long as light north winds prevail. Another 2 to 6 inches is possible for this area.

As of 253 PM EST Sunday...Ongoing light snow across portions of the lower Champlain Valley and southern Vermont continue with a stationary boundary draped along the Vermont/Massachusetts. These are largely inconsequential, but will continue into the evening as a weak trough moves along the boundary. Tonight, clouds begin to clear with high pressure nosing in. The result will be the formation of a strong radiation inversion and temperatures dropping overnight. However, timing of cloud clear will be tricky as satellite shows an area of clouds tracking into northern NY and eventually Vermont. Best chances for very frigid temperatures around and slightly below -15F will be Franklin/Clinton Counties of New York and northeastern Vermont. Any drainage winds that set up could produce a slightly wind chill with values encroaching on -20 degrees. However, most locations away from terrain will likely see calm winds as skies clear.

A clipper style system is on tap for Monday/Monday night that is expected to speed through the region. Moisture continue continues to be low given cold conditions and lack of any real moisture tap - it'll totally rely on what it can advect in from the Great Lakes region. As such, most spots will see on token amounts less than 1 inch of snow with around 2 inches possible for locations in southern Vermont, towards St Lawrence County, and in the Adirondacks of Essex County, NY.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

As of 208 PM EST Sunday...After a much warmer day on Tuesday than the past several, a fast moving storm system tracks up the St. Lawrence Valley and brings a round of widespread precipitation. There looks to be just enough cold air at the onset for the precipitation to start out as snow for most places, even in the valleys. The exception may be part of the western Adirondacks where temperatures rise above freezing quickly. Warm air advection will continue Tuesday night into Wednesday and try to change the precipitation over to rain, but a secondary low looks to quickly develop to the south and help keep the colder air locked in place. While model uncertainty remains, the most likely scenario is snow begins everywhere, before changing into a wintry mix in most areas, though some areas east of the Greens may remain all snow. Ice accumulations under a tenth of an inch are possible, and one to two inches of snow/sleet look to be reasonable. The overall amount of precipitation is limited with this system, with only a couple tenths of an inch of liquid equivalent at most, so regardless of the precipitation types, the impacts should be on the minor side compared to the wintry mess last week.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 208 PM EST Sunday...Behind the exiting low pressure system, the airmass will be relatively warm. Temperatures look to rise into the 30s most places on Thursday. An stronger low pressure attempts to pass to the west of the region on Friday into Saturday, sending the region into the warm sector again. With a relatively warm antecedent airmass, the precipitation looks to be mostly rain, until the center of the low passes to the east and pushes the cold front through. Some back end snow showers are possible on Sunday, particularly in the mountains, but any significant snowfall accumulations look to be unlikely. The relatively short duration of the thaw, combined with temperatures and dew points looking to mostly stay in the 30s to around 40, significant snowmelt or ice movement is not likely during this event at this point. There is still somewhat significant model disagreement with the track of the low, though there has been a gradual convergence in a westerly storm track, and the time for a pivot to a colder snowier solution is quickly running out. Behind the low pressure, another extended stretch of cold temperatures with chances for snow showers looks to begin.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 00Z Tuesday...VFR/MVFR to prevail through at least the first half of the TAF period with low clouds remaining SCT-BKN much of the overnight period. Note that KSLK is reporting some flurries early this evening, but don't anticipate this to persist long. Clouds look to lower to 2500-3500 ft for a time overnight, generally 03z-10z, with KSLK/KEFK the most likely to see MVFR conditions. Ceilings briefly rise again after 12z, but then clouds thicken and lower ahead of snow moving eastward through NY. This snow will spread over the region after 17z, with visibility to quickly lower to 2-3SM once it starts; ceilings generally remaining 1500-2500 ft. Winds remain light through the entire periods, less than 8 kt.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SN, Chance FZRA, Slight chance PL. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SN, Chance FZRA, Slight chance RA, Slight chance PL. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.

EQUIPMENT

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.