textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 214 PM EST Sunday...

Nighttime temperatures are a few to several degrees milder for tonight and tomorrow night in most locations.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 214 PM EST Sunday...

1. After upslope snow showers/flurries at elevations above 1500 feet or so gradually wind down tonight, a dry period will begin areawide. Seasonably cool and cloudy conditions into Monday will trend sunny on Tuesday as a warming trend begins.

2. Warm and dry weather will persist through mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

As of 214 PM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Light snow showers in the Adirondacks, northern Greens, and northeastern highlands in Vermont have persisted into early afternoon. Water vapor imagery shows an additional shortwave to our north pivoting towards northeastern Vermont which should keep slightly higher chances of showers in this region into the evening. To the west, decreasing radar returns nearer to KTYX show cloud tops have warmed/lowered, and there are some increasing breaks in the clouds cover per webcams and satellite imagery. Overall, this suggests further upslope precipitation will trend lighter and more intermittent; expect no travel impacts given these precipitation rates and increasingly localized precipitation. Also, while wet roads often leads to risk of ice formation at night, persistent northwest flow and cloud layer will prevent radiative cooling that is needed for more substantial surface temperature falls. In fact, based on recent temperature verification and this cloudy and breezy pattern, we went closer to raw model guidance and away from bias-corrected and more climatological overnight temperatures. As such, think most lower elevation spots will see low temperatures only bottom out near or slightly above freezing rather than well below freezing.

While increasingly anti-cyclonic flow will lead to dry weather on Monday, low level moisture will be trapped due to strong subsidence. As a result, persistent cloud cover just about areawide will be likely through the day as winds remain out of the northwest. This cloudiness will limit mixing depth and heating, so it will be one more day with seasonably chilly daytime temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s despite rising temperatures aloft. In contrast, on Tuesday as the center of a large ridge of high pressure to our southwest migrates nearer and low level flow becomes southwesterly, we should scatter the shallow cloud cover with a mainly sunny sky for most of the day anticipated. The combination of a moderating air mass and sunshine should lead to the first in a series of days with high temperatures at least 10 degrees above normal.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A ridge of high pressure will remain entrenched across much of the eastern CONUS for the latter half of this week. The result will be a continued period of dry weather. A series of shortwave troughs/frontal systems will attempt to break down the ridge late in the week toward next weekend. However, the ridge looks to hold firm, shunting northern stream systems to our north, with perhaps a glancing blow along the international border on Friday. Models have some consensus in better chances for precipitation later next weekend, but there's not much agreement in deterministic or ensemble guidance in exactly how things would play out. In addition to the dry weather, temperatures will remain above normal, particularly during the day when highs in the 50s will be common (low to mid 40s is normal for mid November). Lows will be a bit more seasonable due to a fairly favorable radiational cooling pattern; lows should remain in the 30s to around 40F most nights.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 18Z Monday...A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions is expected to prevail through the first 6-12 hours of the TAF period. The exception will be periods of IFR at KSLK through 22z in light snow showers, with ceilings dropping to below 1000 ft and visibility to 2SM at times. Overall, though, expect ceilings to remain 1500-3500 ft, generally lowest at KSLK/KMPV/KEFK through 06z Mon. Conditions lower to widespread MVFR as moisture becomes trapped under an inversion, forcing ceilings down to 1200-2500 ft, to remain so through the remainder of the TAF period. Again, KSLK the likely exception, with the cloud deck to drop to below 1000 ft from 06z through the end of the period. N/NW winds 5-10 kt with localized gusts to 18 kt this afternoon will decrease to 3-8 kt overnight and through Monday morning.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.