textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

1. Showers return for Thursday into Friday

2. Heat and humidity to very gradually build which means diurnally-driven, isolated to scattered showers with a few thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: After a mostly dry mid-week, another area of low pressure will track into the region from the west. It looks to be much weaker, with the pressure only dropping to around 1010 MB as it passes through. A weak warm front should pass through late Thursday into Thursday night, bringing the first round of showers. There will be enough synoptic ascent to try to cause a brief round of stratiform precip, but even if that does occur, rainfall totals will be much lighter than yesterday. A break looks to occur Friday morning, especially over southern areas, before a broken line of showers tries to form in the afternoon. Through Friday, GEFS/EPS/CMCE combined ensemble probabilities of receiving more than 0.5 inches are between 40-70 percent and probabilities of receiving more than an inch are less than 20 percent. On Friday afternoon, around 500-750 J/kg of CAPE looks to form and 0-6 KM shear looks to be around 30-35 KT, so a few strong storms will be possible. However, increasing dry air aloft and relatively weak synoptic dynamics will help minimize the threat. Adequate storm movement should minimize the flood threat.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Both Saturday and Sunday's weather pattern will be characterized by an amplifying trough to our east and ridge to our west. In the relatively slow northwest flow aloft, there's a long, stretched-out lobe of vorticity. With temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s and dewpoints hovering around 60, it'll be just enough that isolated showers with a few rumbles of thunder will be possible. Even without the specificity of high res guidance, it looks like the kind of days where activity bubbles over the mountains or lake breeze, and slowly drifts off and decays in their own downdraft with very little atmospheric flow.

Then by next Monday into Tuesday, surface high pressure will more definitively build across the Eastern Seaboard and then off into the Atlantic. This will usher greater warmth, and then humidity lags behind it. Ridging will suppress activity as temperatures rise solidly into the 80s and dewpoints begin to creep into the lowers 60s to the mid-upper 60s. This means there's a good chance we'll be looking at heat indices creeping into the 90s.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 00Z Thursday...The potential for isold -RW has ended for the evening. Lingering SCT-BKN080-100 will likewise gradually dissipate through 02-03Z with onset of diurnal cooling cycle. Should see NW winds diminishing overnight. Looks marginal for reaching crossover temperature thresholds, but given above normal soil moisture conditions, included 2-3SM BR at SLK/MPV from 09-12Z. Could see some brief IFR due to early AM fog at both sites. Any fog will diminish after 12z, and then northwest winds pick up again during the late morning and thru the afternoon hours on Wednesday. Given good mixing, appears winds will will reach 6-12 knots sustained, and a few gusts up to 18-20 knots possible. Skies are expected to remain VFR with scattered high based fair weather cumulus clouds during the midday thru afternoon period.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.