textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday...

No significant changes were made to the forecast. Gusty winds are still expected across the northern St. Lawrence Valley this afternoon and evening.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday...

1. Gusty winds up to 25 to 45 MPH will be possible through this evening, particularly across the northern St. Lawrence Valley.

2. Temperatures will trend seasonably cool through the remainder of the work week with few chances for precipitation.

3. Below normal temperatures and chances for scattered showers are expected heading into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front will slowly drop south out of Canada this evening bringing seasonably cool temperatures for the rest of the week. An accompanying low level jet to 40 to 50 knots is leading to gusty winds out ahead of the front with many locations across northern New York currently gusting to 25 to 35 MPH. The jet will continue to strengthen through this evening as low level lapse rates steepen, driven by increasing dry air evident on GOES-19 water vapor. The expectation is that the core of the jet, and subsequent stronger gusts, will ride just north of the northern New York International Border, with gusts across the US 11 corridor peaking between 40 to 45 MPH, particularly between Massena and Fort Covington, NY. Should the core of the jet nudge a few miles south, an isolated wind gust around 46 MPH (Wind Advisory criteria) cannot be ruled out, however, given the low spatial aspect of these stronger gusts, in addition to a short time range of any peak gusts (between 6 and 9 PM) a Wind Advisory was not issued for this evening. Temperatures and gusts will decrease with the loss of diurnal heating beyond 9 PM, with gusts weakening to around 10 MPH by sunrise Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A moisture starved cold front will move through the region tomorrow morning through tomorrow afternoon, with dry air limiting any shower activity. An isolated shower cannot be completely ruled out, mainly across the Northeast Kingdom and near the International Border, however, a lack of true convergence, weak forcing, and entrenched dry air will cause any shower initiation to struggle. Temperatures will trend cooler into the low to mid 70s tomorrow behind the front, though some locations in southern Vermont may remain in the upper 70s to low 80s as the front is slower to arrive further south. Seasonably cool overnight lows will be in the upper 40s to low to mid 50s Wednesday night. Winds will shift to the north for Thursday with cooler air remaining in place as highs will be in the 60s. Cooling aloft with some diurnal surface heating may lead to some weak instability capable of producing some isolated to scattered showers Thursday. Showers will be more confined to the higher terrain of the Adirondacks and northern Green Mountains, though with low humidity near the surface, some showers initially may fall as virga, with any subsequent showers leading only to light accumulations should columns saturate enough.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Unseasonably cold and unsettled conditions are expected heading into the weekend as large-scale troughing remains in place across the Northeast, with a closed upper level low pivoting overhead Friday night into Saturday. This disturbance will bring unseasonably cold temperatures and plenty of shower chances heading into the weekend. High temperatures on Saturday will only climb into the 50s to near 60, making for a rather cold and raw start to the weekend, with temperatures 15 degrees below climatological normals for the end of May. Fairly widespread shower chances are expected Friday night into Saturday, with shower chances continuing through the weekend as we remain under cyclonic flow. As we head into the beginning of next week, temperatures look to become more seasonable with ridging slowly building eastward.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 00Z Thursday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all terminals over the next 24 hours, with relatively clear skies and no precipitation expected. Winds will be the primary concern for aviators this evening as a strong low level jet moves across the region. South to southwest winds with wind gusts ranging from 15 to 35 knots depending on the terminal, with the strongest gusts expected at KMSS. Winds will remain breezy through the evening, before gradually lessening towards 06Z or so. A period of LLWS is expected across all terminals tonight, generally between 00Z and 06Z. Winds look to become more northwesterly towards the end of the forecast period.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: MVFR. Likely SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

MARINE

As of 250 PM EDT Tuesday... A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for all of Lake Champlain through midnight tonight. Southwest winds ahead an approaching moisture starved cold front will lead to increasing winds on Lake Champlain enhancing gusts and wave conditions. Winds on the lake will increase to 10 to 20 knots with gusts 30 to 35 knots. Winds will be strongest between 6 and 9 PM this evening, particularly on the northern waters of the lake. Waves will be 1 to 2 ft. Gusts will weaken back to around 10 knots between midnight and tomorrow morning.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.