textproduct: Burlington
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
SYNOPSIS
Cool and cloudy weather will persist through the weekend, additional showers will be mostly light and confined to the mountains. High elevation snow showers are expected, with only light accumulations on the mountain summits. Conditions trend drier and a little sunnier heading into early next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 1245 PM EDT Saturday...Our weather from tonight through Sunday night will be relatively quiet, and dominated by an upper level trough and surface ridge of high pressure. We will be under northwesterly upper level flow as trough remains in the area, and several pieces of vorticity rotating around the trough will bring some increased chances for showers, but mainly in the higher elevations. Meanwhile, a ridge of surface high pressure will build into our area from the north, leading to light winds and overall quieter weather. Upper trough will keep clouds over our area, but moist low levels from recent rainfall and light winds from surface high should lead to some fog formation during the overnight periods. Overnight minimum temperatures will be in the 20s and 30s both tonight and Sunday night. Maximum temperatures on Sunday will be cool, generally ranging through the 40s by Sunday afternoon. This is almost ten degrees below seasonal normals for late October across the north country.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 1245 PM EDT Saturday...On Monday and Monday night, conditions will continue to feature quiet weather. Virtually no change in the upper level or surface pattern as we remain under influence of upper trough and surface ridge at the same time. Cool and cloudy conditions, with some light showers possible in the high elevations continue. Maximum temperatures will range from the mid 40s to lower 50s, slightly warmer on Monday than Sunday. Fog will be possible once again Monday night.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 145 PM EDT Saturday...A ridge of high pressure will develop over the Hudson Bay on Tuesday, bringing partly clear skies and low PoPs. Model agreement has improved since the last forecast, increasing confidence that we will remain mostly dry through Wednesday. PoPS on Wednesday night start to slowly tick up in advance of a low pressure moving in from the Great Lakes. This timeline would allow for some light snowfall accumulations above 2,500 feet. Snow levels increase as the systems true impacts begin to be felt on Thursday. The low will advect in higher pwats from the coastal areas allowing a potentially soggy Halloween. Model timing on this event is still widely spaced, with the Euro having the heavier precipitation reaching us almost 12 hours before the GFS solution.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 00Z Monday...VFR conditions will continue to prevail across all terminals this evening, with ceilings generally between 4000 and 6000 ft AGL and generally light winds. Some fog and mist development may be possible overnight, however confidence is too low to include in the forecast at this time. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding cloud cover, and if any clearing will be able to occur, which will impact any fog development and possible IFR conditions. Ceilings look to lower towards 12Z, with several terminals experiencing a period of MVFR ceilings before returning to VFR after 21Z or so. Winds will generally be light and northerly throughout the forecast period.
EQUIPMENT
The TYX radar is down until further notice after a hardware failure occurred. Replacement parts have been ordered and will be installed. There is no ETA on its return to service.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None. NY...None.
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