textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 142 AM EST Thursday...No significant changes have been made with this forecast, although snowfall amounts have decreased slightly compared to the previous forecast. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect for much of northern New York.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 142 AM EST Thursday...

1. Rain continues to transition to snow across the region this morning, making for slick and hazardous commutes both this morning and later this evening. Greatest snow amounts are expected across northern New York, with more elevation dependent snowfall expected Vermont.

2. Cold temperatures and brisk westerly winds will lead to bitterly cold wind chills tonight into Friday.

3. Colder temperatures will continue through next week, with unsettled weather bringing several chances for snow showers, which may lead to slick travel at times.

DISCUSSION

As of 142 AM EST Thursday...

.KEY MESSAGE 1: Precipitation continues to overspread the region this morning as surface low pressure over northwestern Pennsylvania continues to track to the north, with a transition to snow expected to continue over the next few hours. At this moment, temperatures are cold enough enough that much of northern New York is observing snow, while rain and drizzle is being observed elsewhere. The trends will need to be monitored, but at this current rate it looks like the Champlain Valley will transition to snow later this morning, with wet roads and cold rain a few wet snowflakes expected during the morning commute.

The current forecast shows about 7 inches within the Winter Storm Warning area across the St. Lawrence Valley, with 3 to 5 generally in the Winter Weather Advisory in northern New York. Snow totals across Vermont are much less given a later transition to snowfall, with most locations outside of the higher terrain only seeing an inch or so across northern Vermont and little to no snow accumulation in the Connecticut River Valley and portions of southern Vermont. The snowfall across Vermont is also much more elevation dependent, with a few inches of snow are expected across the spine of the Greens given colder temperatures already in place. Compared to the previous forecast, snow totals have decreased slightly across northern New York. This is mainly due to a slower arrival of the colder air and transition to snowfall. This snowfall forecast continues to be tricky, with a large spread in potential amounts, both due to thermal profiles and dry slot potential.

Snow will gradually taper off to snow showers this evening, with some additional snow accumulations possible in the more favored upslope locations.

.KEY MESSAGE 2: In the wake of the cold front pushing across the region today, sharply colder air in combination with brisk westerly winds will make for blustery conditions tonight into tomorrow morning. Overnight low temperatures are expected to drop into the single digits tonight and low teens tonight, with some of the colder hollows potentially dipping below zero. Apparent temperatures will generally be below zero, generally -5F to -15F, with -20 to -30 expected at summits. After the recent stretch of warmer weather this week, these temperatures will likely feel quite cold so be sure to bundle up if you plan on being outside.

.KEY MESSAGE 3: After a brief warm up on Saturday, with high temperatures in the 30s, colder air will return late this weekend into next week. By Monday, highs will be closer to climatological normals with below normal temperatures expected mid-week. With these colder temperatures, an active upper level pattern will continue to bring chances for snowfall to the region as several shortwaves rotate through the region. First chances for snowfall arrive on Sunday, with additional chances for snow as the week progresses. Snowfall amounts with any of these system look to be quite modest, with the greatest accumulations expected across northern New York and the spine of the Green Mountains. The wintry and showery weather pattern is expected to persist through much of next week.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 12Z Friday...Widespread rain/drizzle transitioned to snow overnight for higher terrain and NY terminals; most terminals will see periods of IFR/LIFR conditions this morning. CIGs will linger and lower MVFR to LIFR. Worst flight weather conditions will be at MSS where snow will be heaviest. 2 to 6 inches are anticipated for northern New York terminals with around 8 inches expected at MSS. Precipitation will taper down after 18-23Z today, but CIGs will remain MVFR/IFR behind the system. RUT has the best chances of seeing VFR by 21Z or so. Otherwise,relatively light northwesterly flow tonight will shift more westerly to southwesterly after 20Z with gradient sufficient to drive some gusts up to 20kts.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Martin Luther King Jr Day: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.

EQUIPMENT

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ026- 027-087. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ029>031-034.