textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 218 PM EDT Thursday...

No major changes have been made with the forecast. Dry and breezy conditions continue to make for fire weather concerns this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 218 PM EDT Thursday...

1. Dry and breezy conditions will continue, making for elevated fire weather concerns this afternoon. Dry weather and seasonable temperatures are expected to continue for the remainder of the week into the weekend.

2. High pressure keeps us dry through Tuesday. Rain showers possible Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

As of 218 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1:

Dry and breezy conditions prevail across the region this afternoon as northwesterly flows continues to usher in a drier airmass, making for near critical fire weather conditions. Relative humidity values this afternoon have dropped into the 20 to 30 percent range, with wind gusts generally in the 15 to 25 mph range, although a few locally higher gusts have been observed at times. If any fires were to start this afternoon, the combination of weather and fuel conditions could quickly get out of control and be difficult to contain. Dry conditions will persist for Friday, with minimum relative humidity values in the 20 to 30 percent range for much of the area. Winds will be weaker for Friday as the pressure gradient begins to slacken, with gusts of 10 to 15 mph expected, which will limit fire weather concerns for tomorrow. Heading into the weekend, the dry weather is expected to continue as the region remains under the influence of high pressure. Temperatures will generally be near seasonable normals for late April, with daytime highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s and overnight lows in the 30s to mid 40s, making for relatively pleasant spring weather this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2: The long term forecast continues to be quiet, with a high pressure system allowing temperatures to reach into the lower 60s during the early part of next week for much of the region. A low pressure system will move northeast off the Great Lakes Tuesday, with PoPs increasing from west to east Tuesday night into Wednesday. Models continue to be aligned with the primary low moving well to our north, leaving us with an elongated swath of higher PWATs. Given the narrow band of PWATs and the high translational speed of the system rain totals won't be high, but a good wetting rain should help mitigate any fire weather concerns for the entire CWA.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 18Z Friday...VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. The lowest ceilings in our CWA are around 5,000ft in the vicinity of EFK. Those clouds will slowly move westward through the evening hours, reaching terminals throughout northern Vermont before clearing overnight. We're also watching some NW winds gusting near 25kts throughout the area. These winds will abate overnight as well. Tomorrow should be more of the same with VFR conditions persisting but even lighter winds.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.