textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 127 PM EST Wednesday...

A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for northern New York outside the Champlain Valley for Thursday night and Friday morning. Wind chills in the -20 to -30 degree range are expected.

DISCUSSION

As of 127 PM EST Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A reinforcing shot of cold air is expected to move through the region Thursday and Thursday night as a trough passes. Winds will likely remain elevated through the nocturnal hours with around 30kts at 850mb. Model soundings favor keeping winds couple with across northern New York where gusts could exceed 20 mph. Cold air advection combined with winds will result in wind chills ranging -20F to -30F for most locations in northern New York with -5F to -20F anticipated from the Champlain Valley eastward through Vermont. Some model guidance suggests a little more wind could occur in northern New York pointing to potential wind chills below -30F for portions of Essex/southern Franklin County of New York, but confidence in those speeds are lower at this time. Should breezier/colder conditions play out, the risk of hypothermia/frostbite would increase.

KEY MESSAGE 2: 850-500mb cyclonic flow continues to favor periods of snow showers across the region through Friday. This will be especially true through tonight due to some lake enhancement off of Lake Ontario. Once the band waggles southward again tomorrow, best chances of isolated to scattered showers will remain along the higher terrain of the Adirondacks and northern Greens. Totals will generally be less than 1 inch.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Model guidance continues to keep a strong coastal low passing well to our south, with most guidance keeping precipitation outside of our forecast area across southern and coastal New England. The latest NBM forecast shows about 10% to 30% chance of precipitation across Vermont, with even drier conditions across northern New York, which seems reasonable given there is still uncertainty regarding the low track. Breezy north winds are expected for Sunday, with gusts up to 25 mph possible across much of Vermont given the tight pressure gradient associated with this system. There is still plenty of uncertainty regarding this low, particularly with the low track, so we will continue to monitor the trends but there is increasing confidence that little impact will be observed across the forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 4: In the wake of the coastal low moving off the New England coast, temperatures for early next week are expected to moderate and be closer to normal compared to the recent cold. High temperatures for Monday and Tuesday look to climb into the teens and 20s, closer to climatological normals although it is still a few degrees cooler. Drier conditions are expected to persist with surface high pressure building into the region. A frontal boundary looks to push through towards mid- week, but there is still a lot of uncertainty right now regarding those features given the time range.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 00Z Friday...VFR conditions are expected to continue for the next several hours, with MVFR ceilings expected to develop due to scatttered snow showers overnight, although confidence continues to be low on the exact extent and impacts of these showers, so continued with the PROB30s in the forecast. Conditions will trend back towards VFR at the end of the forecast period, with cloud cover expected to become more scattered in nature. Winds will be light variable overnight, with northerly winds expected by the end of the forecast period.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

EQUIPMENT

The Saranac Lake Airport weather sensor will have its temperature aspirator changed tomorrow, 1/29/2026. The temperature sensor has been reporting temperatures that have been too warm for the last few days.

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to 10 AM EST Friday for NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087.