textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 229 PM EDT Tuesday...

No significant changes have been made to the forecast. A Frost Advisory remains in effect for the Champlain Valley tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 229 PM EDT Tuesday...

1. Cool and dry conditions continue this afternoon into tonight, with a Frost Advisory in effect for the Champlain Valley. Temperatures trend more seasonable for the remainder of the week, with some chances for light rain showers.

2. Dry and warming this weekend before showers return next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 229 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Cool, dry, and breezy conditions continue across the region this afternoon with temperatures generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s. West to northwesterly winds continue to be breezy, though not as strong as yesterday. These winds will drop off this evening, which will allow for temperatures to drop this evening as ideal radiational cooling takes place given the dry airmass across the region. Temperatures overnight will generally drop into the 20s and 30s across the region. A Frost Advisory remains in effect for the Champlain Valley, where the growing season is still active. The best potential for frost development will be earlier in the night, with southerly winds and increased cloud cover putting an end to frost potential by 5AM or so.

For tomorrow, the region will be on the periphery of a low centered over James Bay, with an associated warm front passing through mid- day tomorrow. Temperatures tomorrow will be much warmer in comparison to this afternoon, with daytime highs generally in the upper 50s and 60s. Some light rain showers will be possible throughout the day tomorrow, particularly in the afternoon or evening but expected rainfall amounts will be fairly light. Additional shower chances will be possible through the end of the work week as a cold front moves through on Thursday. Thursday looks like it could be quite similar to yesterday, with more convective showers developing behind the front and the potential for some small hail and/or graupel.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Large ridging over the Mid-Atlantic states is expected to roll eastward supporting an increase in ridging over the Northeast. Conditions will be around to slightly below seasonal averages for Saturday as ridging keeps conditions dry. Sunday, flow is favored to shift more out of the south to southwest promoting warm air advection and temperatures warming above seasonal averages into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Winds will likely be on the rise under this pattern shift for Sunday with gusts 15-20 mph.

Beyond Sunday, the high is favored to remain progressive with a southern trajectory low pressure system potentially riding up the backside of the ridge. This low could be the remnants of a tropical system out of the Gulf waters off Texas and Louisiana. However, models tend to be too progressive with these features at this time scale, so it's more likely that this low will be delayed longer. If so, a northern stream trough will sweep through. Either way, some precipitation chances are possible.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the forecast period. The main aviation challenges will be gusts 15-20kts out of the west this afternoon, winds switching south after 12Z with more gusts 15-20kts in general, and some potential for light showers after 12Z Wednesday in portions of northern New York. PBG could see higher gusts to around 25kts with winds coming off of Lake Champlain tomorrow.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EDT Wednesday for VTZ001-002-005-009. NY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EDT Wednesday for NYZ028-035.