textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 227 AM EDT Friday...

No significant changes have been made with this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 227 AM EDT Friday...

1. Dry and seasonable weather to continue through early next week.

2. Dry cold front to bring cooler temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday with dry weather now expected to continue through much of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 227 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: High pressure will continue to build across the North Country and northern New York today with the center of the high directly overhead on Saturday and the first half of Sunday. Below normal high temperatures, in the 48-52 degree range, are expected today with plentiful sunshine. Temperatures will moderate through the weekend with high temperatures by Sunday warming into the lower 60s. Dry weather will continue through Monday with the lack of any appreciable moisture or significant changes in the synoptic longwave pattern.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Models continue to be less bullish on the upcoming cold front later on Monday. The latest suite of global guidance is showing a plethora of dry air ahead of the front which should allow the front to pass through the region with virtually no precipitation. A few members of the GEFS and ECMWF ensemble are showing a hundredth or two of precip at a few locations but the trend continues to be drier which makes sense given the current pattern. Another sharp cool down will be seen as we head into Friday with high temperatures struggling to warm into the mid to upper 40s even with abundant sunshine. Another 1030+ mb high pressure system will settle into the region on Tuesday with dry weather now expected through much of the week. A slight chance of rain has been added for Friday with a more amplified pattern with some moisture advection ahead of a stronger cold front. The dry air mass in place will be hard to displace so we will see how this pans out in a week from now.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Winds will remain out of the north through the forecast period at 5 to 7 knots during the day and much lighter during the overnight period. Some gusty winds to 15 knots will be seen in the Champlain Valley for a few hours this afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.