textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 212 PM EDT Monday...

No significant changes were made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 212 PM EDT Monday...

1. Rounds of scattered showers are expected this afternoon, then another weak frontal system will increase shower and thunderstorm chances again Wednesday.

2. Seasonable conditions prevail for the end of the week into the weekend, with increasing shower chances for Sunday into Monday.

DISCUSSION

As of 212 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front is crossing the forecast area this afternoon resulting in a line of spotty showers. About 10-40% chance of lingering showers overnight tonight, with highest chance in the Northeast Kingdom, closest to the departing low pressure system. Otherwise, surface high pressure will build in from the Midwest overnight and Tuesday, resulting in seasonable low temperatures in the 50s and lower 60s both tonight and Tuesday night. Widespread patchy fog is possible tonight, especially in the typical valley locations and spots that receive rain this afternoon. Aside from a low chance of a spot terrain driven shower on Tuesday, the next chance of rain continues to be on Wednesday. Consensus suggests that a weak cold front will approach the area from Canada during the day and stall around the international border. About 55-95% chance of precipitation on Wednesday for most of northern New York and northwestern Vermont, with lower chances in central, southern, and eastern Vermont. The probabilities of thunderstorms remain low with most guidance rather limited in instability consistent with poor lapse rates amidst a thick overcast along the frontal zone. Highest chance of a spotty storm will be across northern New York. Overall, this event remains unlikely to be impactful. Timing and location of this front and associated cloud cover will affect high temperatures, but as of now highest confidence is for temps reaching a seasonable mid 70s to mid 80s both Tuesday and Wednesday. Showers could linger into Thursday, although chances are much lower than on Wednesday. Wednesday night should be a touch cooler than previous nights but still seasonable with lows in the upper 40s to near 60 F following the cold front, then Thursday should see highs in the 70s and lower 80s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A period of drier weather is expected towards the end of the week as high pressure builds into the region. Daytime temperatures increase towards climatological normals into next weekend with highs in the 70s and lower 80s as well as overnight lows generally in the 50s. The next chances for widespread showers look to arrive Sunday into Monday, with plenty of uncertainty regarding the timing and evolution of this system. As we get closer, forecast guidance should come into better agreement and more details should emerge.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 00Z Wednesday...Mainly VFR conditions prevail this evening with exception of RUT which has rain at the moment. High pressure is building into the region as front exits to our south and east and fog formation will be the big Afton challenge overnight. The greatest confidence for IFR or lower conditions will be at KSLK, KMPV, and KRUT, but fog/mist may be possible at most other terminals except PBG. Guidance suggests that fog could develop earlier than normal, near 04Z or so, and will dissipates after sunrise towards 12Z. Once fog clears, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the remainder of the forecast period. Light/calm winds overnight then light northerly flow develops tomorrow morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. Patchy BR. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA, Patchy BR. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.