textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 137 AM EDT Tuesday...

No significant changes have been made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 137 AM EDT Tuesday...

1. Tranquil weather is expected today and Wednesday as high pressure builds over the region.

2. Seasonably warm and unsettled weather returns for the end of the week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms.

3. Classic northern trough-southern ridge summer weather pattern will bring above normal temperatures and multiple small scale weather systems for the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 137 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A pleasant day is expected across the region today as high pressure continues to nose into the region, bringing a period of drier weather. Some valley fog that has developed overnight will gradually dissipate through the morning, with mostly clear skies and sun expected for this afternoon. High temperatures today will climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Another day of tranquil conditions is expected for Wednesday as the region remains under the influence of ridging, with high temperatures a few degrees warmer under light southerly flow with daytime highs climbing into the 80s areawide. Overall, it looks like a few pleasant summer days are on tap for the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Heading into the latter half of the week, warm and unsettled weather is expected as the region remains sandwiched between high pressure to the south and an upper level trough to the north, with zonal flow bringing several different disturbances to the region. With broad southwesterly flow ushering in plenty of moisture, chances for showers and thunderstorms will be possible. Latest guidance shows decent instability across the region Thursday afternoon, which combined with ample moisture and decent forcing may lead to thunderstorm development in the afternoon, with the potential for some stronger thunderstorms possible if all the ingredients align, although details will become clearer as we get closer. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are also expected for Friday. In addition to the shower chances increase later this week, the increased moisture will allow for dewpoints to climb into the upper 60s to near 70 at times, making it feel increasingly muggy and uncomfortable later this week. High temperatures will climb into the 80s, with heat indices climbing into the upper 80s and near 90.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Over the weekend, an upper low will mature on the western edge of the Hudson Bay while a large western upper high flattens out and settles east. This will produce a channeled flow pattern that commonly sends small scale features racing east in a speedy jet stream. This usually also means that the forecast predictability will be low, as coarse resolution models may not always accurately depict these smaller, convectively-influenced systems within the fast flow pattern.

Assessing different ensemble suites, most indicate largely above normal PWATs, although there is a signal for a brief pocket of dry air. Some have that dry air in place on Sunday, some have it on Monday, and a minority have it on Saturday. So Saturday appears the most likely to feature scattered (even numerous) showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. Between Saturday and next Tuesday, there's at least a trough per day passing east, and so there could be some rain for each day. Towards the middle of next week, the large scale pattern doesn't change too much, but the northern trough- southern ridge pair shifts east. This will place us a bit more under the influence of the upper low. So after a period of above normal temperatures, we will start trending back towards normal. The question will be how amplified that upper low remains. Still showers can't be completely discounted given the upper low nearby.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 06Z Wednesday...Mostly clear skies are prevalent across the region, though some mid clouds around 4000-8000 ft agl remain in portions of the Adirondacks and northern Vermont. This is expected to gradually clear. Despite the clear skies and recent rain, winds at 400-600 ft agl are expected to be 20 knots. This mixing may prevent most locations from decoupling, and even the last few hours at KSLK have remained around 7 knots out of the southwest. Satellite shows some fog has developed in eastern Vermont, and our cool hollows can still briefly decouple. Thus, noted 4SM with a 1SM TEMPO from 08-12z at KSLK and an early TEMPO to 2SM at KMPV before going to 1/2SM prevailing from 09-1230z given fog already nearby. Afterwards, any remaining fog will lift. Winds will shift southwest to northwest at 5-9 knots, and a few gusts possible at KMPV and KMSS to around 15-17 knots. Skies will be clear, and then winds will go calm or terrain driven towards sunset (~00z).

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.