textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 228 PM EDT Thursday...

No significant changes made with this forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 228 PM EDT Thursday...

1. Unsettled and cooler this weekend with several rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms likely. Probability of severe weather is low at this time.

2. Warm and dry conditions will return for most of next week with highs soaring into the 80s again.

DISCUSSION

As of 228 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Mid/upper lvl ridge wl begin to breakdown on Friday with developing westerly flow aloft and embedded s/w energy impacting our fa by Saturday. Progged 925mb temps range btwn 20-22C on Friday, which are a degree warmer than today, but given increasing westerly flow aloft, thinking some mid/upper lvl debris clouds may result in filtered sunshine and keep temps in the mid/upper 80s. Soundings continues to support good mixing from 850mb to the sfc, which supports some lowering of sfc dwpts during peak heating again on Friday aftn, minimizing the heat risk with comfortable humidity values. Min rh's should be in the 25 to 35% range.

The potential for showers increase on Friday night acrs northern NY and spread into central/northern VT by Saturday morning. Initial s/w energy in the 700-500mb westerly flow aloft moves acrs the International Border region, while deep layer moisture in the 1000- 500mb layer increases btwn 70% and 90%, but instability parameters are minimal thru 12z Sat. Have chc to likely pops expanding along our northern tier after midnight with likely to cat pops on Sat morning.

As initial s/w energy moves into central/eastern New England by midday, a weak area of subsidence should develop over our cwa, which should allow for some intervals of sunshine. This sfc heating wl result in modest instability to develop with sfc based CAPE values in the 800-1200 J/kg range, ahead of secondary s/w energy. The dynamics and associated height falls are fairly strong, so even with modest instability, thinking isolated to scattered convection is likely toward 21z northern NY and btwn 00z-03z VT. Given the timing/instability and shear, feel probability of severe is low attm, but a few stronger storms wl be possible, especially northern NY. As typical the severe setup is rather messy and not ideal with instability and dynamics not interacting with the best shear and sfc convergence. Also, did note soundings acrs eastern/southern VT, where a second pocket of instability develops are rather capped with warm layer near 800mb of 13C at VSF off the NAM3km. Highs Saturday mid 70s to mid 80s with localized values in the upper 80s near VSF.

The threat for additional showers and embedded thunderstorms prevail on Sunday as potent s/w energy in the northerly flow aloft on the backside of departing mid/upper lvl trof impacts our cwa. Depending upon timing of s/w energy and how much sfc heating/instability can develop associated with cool pool aloft, some pea size hail is possible with a few of the stronger convective updrafts. GFS shows sfc based CAPE values in the 250-500 J/kg range over southern VT, while NAM is less and much drier. GFS sounding data at VSF shows WBZ heights around 8kft and EL near 25kft, supporting the potential for some small hail, given the thermodynamics. I have trended toward the GFS/ECMWF and CMC solutions with high likely pops, especially acrs most of VT on Sunday. Temps mostly in the 70s with northerly winds at 5 to 15 knots.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Strong ridging makes a comeback next week, keeping conditions quiet and dry as well as allowing temperatures to climb back into the 80s by early to mid week. The axis of upper ridging will be centered over the Great Lakes into Quebec, keeping us on the eastern periphery for much of the time, though some global models bring the upper ridge farther east into New England. The peak of the heat looks like it will occur on Thursday afternoon with highs around 80-90 F across northern New York and Vermont, however, deterministic models show a dramatic disagreement towards the second half of the week, so these temperatures are subject to change depending on how the pattern develops. Dew points are expected to mainly be in the 50s Wednesday and Thursday. Blended guidance suggests there is a 10-30% chance of measurable precipitation Wednesday through Thursday, though it's unclear whether this would be from a shortwave as the high pressure bubble breaks down or popcorn convective showers occurring on the edge of cyclonic flow in the Atlantic. At the moment, the blocked pattern remaining in place looks like the most likely scenario.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 18Z Friday...Dry weather prevails through Friday. Persistent VFR conditions continue under surface high pressure through the next 24 hours. High clouds have spread across much of northern New York and Vermont this afternoon as winds at the surface run around 5-15 knots mainly out of the southwest with gusts as high as 15-25 knots. Westerly winds are expected to increase over the next few hours at many sites, sustained 5-15 knots and gusts 15-25 knots possible through around 00Z-01Z Friday. Then, we'll see winds decrease tonight, lowering to 2-6 knots, though some sites could see winds go calm. Weak and brief LLWS is possible in the Champlain Valley tonight as surface winds grow lighter, but this is overall unlikely. If it occurs, it will be short-lived. Friday, surface winds return out of the southwest 5-15 knots and gusts 15-25 knots again. MSS will be the breeziest spot while we have the southwest flow due to winds channeling through the St. Lawrence Valley.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA, Chance TSRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

CLIMATE

Temperatures will be approaching daily record warm values on Thursday, June 4th, and Friday, June 5th. At this time, Plattsburgh (PBG) and Montpelier (MPV) have the greatest chances of setting a new record.

Record High Temperatures:

June 4: KMPV: 87/2025 KPBG: 88/1967

June 5: KMPV: 86/2025 KPBG: 90/2020

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 5: KPBG: 65/1963

June 6: KPBG: 67/1973

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.