textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 313 AM EDT Monday...

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 313 AM EDT Monday...

1. Mostly dry and seasonably cool weather through mid-week.

2. A typical late summer/early fall pattern prevails with fast flow aloft with a very low probability of significant or impact weather over the next 4 to 7 days.

DISCUSSION

As of 313 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Surface high pressure will build into the region today, bringing drier weather with it. Winds will be gusty out of the northwest this morning, then trending lighter as the high ridges in. Maximum temperatures today will be relatively cool, topping out on the 60s areawide. Tonight frost will be possible in the colder valleys of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. Surface ridge will slide east of our region on Tuesday and flow will become southerly and gusty at times. Shortwave energy moving through progressive upper level flow will bring chance for showers Tuesday night into Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A fast progressive flow aloft continues acrs the northern tier of the CONUS for days 4 thru 7, which results in changeable wx conditions every couple of days. The latest global guidance and associated ensemble members still indicate the highest probability of precip (60-75%) is on Thurs, with additional chance (30-40%) pops next weekend. Given the fast 700-500mb flow of 45 to 60 knots, precip on Thurs wl be quickly moving west to east acrs our cwa, as pw values approach 1.5". Given the fast flow aloft and limited deep layer instability, the probability of any flooding is very low on Thurs. Next large scale system is progged to impact our cwa next weekend with sfc low pres moving along strengthening low lvl thermal gradient. Given time frame, a large spread in timing and placement of highest qpf is noted in the latest guidance. As event becomes better sampled with time, pops for a portion of next weekend will probably need to be increased, but difficult to determine attm. Temps are relatively steady for days 4 thru 7, with slightly cooler air possible on Thurs associated with clouds/precip and feel latest WPC guidance is probably 3 to 5 degrees too high. Otherwise, expect daily highs in the mid 60s mtns to mid 70s valleys with a few spots in the upper 70s possible, while lows range from the upper 30s to lower/mid 50s.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 12Z Tuesday...Upslope flow behind our surface cold front has resulted in strato cumulus clouds across our mountain TAF sites with MVFR cigs. The MVFR cigs at MPV/SLK will become VFR by 15/16z this morning. Breezy northwest winds 5 to 15 knots with localized gusts 15 to 20 knots will prevail through early afternoon before becoming light and terrain driven by sunset. Tonight aviation challenge will become timing and areal coverage of fog. Highest probability (90-100%) will be at MPV/SLK, with likely (60%) fog at EFK, chance (30-40%) at MSS/RUT/BTV and low probability <15% at PBG. Any fog development with produce LIFR/VLIFR conditions roughly from 07z-12z.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.