textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 257 AM EDT Monday...

Gusts were increased this morning in the northern St Lawrence Valley and across the northern flanks of the Adirondacks down through the Highway 11 corridor of northern New York. This resulted in the issuance of Wind Advisory that is in effect just prior to sunrise continuing through early afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 257 AM EDT Monday...

1. Gusty winds increase this morning as rain tapers down with gusts up to 50 mph possible for portions of northern New York and around 40 mph for the Champlain Valley.

2. Rain returns Tuesday and Wednesday along with some thunderstorm chances across the Northeast. A few storms may be strong Tuesday.

3. Warm and unsettled weather to continue late next week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 257 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A broad 40-60kt low level jet is currently moving across the region with widespread rainfall ongoing as a warm front moves through.Gusts across the region are generally 20 to 30 mph with rainfall tamping down wind speeds. Just prior to sunrise, rain is expected to taper off allowing for stronger winds aloft to be less impeded resulting in an increase in gusty conditions. The expectation is that gusts of 40-50 mph will occur along the northern flanks of the Adirondacks down to and across the Highway 11 corridor as southwest flow channels down the St Lawrence Valley as well. There could be a brief period of gusts to around 45 mph in the northern Champlain Valley as well, but the strongest portion of the jet seems to be displaced just a bit northwest and stability will be working against surfacing of winds aloft. Cold lake waters coupled with warm air advection may be enough to keep strongest winds from surfacing. Temperatures warm well above average today with many locations in the 60s. Another wave of showers will accompany the system's cold front, but the overall longwave pattern will be lifting limiting resulting in a weak thermal transition as flow rapidly shifts southwesterly again late tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2: The warming trend continues Tuesday and Wednesday with a quasi-stationary boundary draped across the region. This boundary will be the focal point for showers/convection as trough ride along it. The next trough arrives Tuesday afternoon with a decent, narrow low level jet associated with it. The combination of temperatures near 70 degrees, ample low level moisture, and steepening lapse rates aloft will support isolated to scattered thunderstorms and more rain. Given the 45-55kt winds in the lljet resulting in around 40+kts of shear, CAPE 500-1000J/kg, and well defined boundary, some thunderstorms could be strong capable of damaging winds and/or producing some hail. The SPC has use currently in a marginal (5% chance) region for severe storms. The quasi-stationary boundary is expected to linger through Wednesday with another trough moving through. More thunderstorms are possible with best shear/CAPE more directed towards southern Vermont. This setup does support localized heavy rainfall, but details will become clearer over the next 24 hours.

KEY MESSAGE 3: A warm and fairly active weather pattern is expected to continue throughout this week into the weekend. Upper level ridging will remain situated across the southeastern US, with several shortwaves moving across the region, leading to periods of rain showers and possible rumbles of thunder. Temperatures this week will continue to be warm, with daytime highs climbing into the upper 60s and 70s. In comparison, average high temperatures of this time of year are generally in the low to upper 50s.The upper level ridge will begin to build northward early in the weekend and allow for even warmer temperatures and moisture to advect northward, with Saturday currently looking to be the warmest day. A cold front looks to traverse the region later in the weekend, ushering in a cooler and more seasonable air mass, although there is still a lot of uncertainty regarding the timing and evolution of this feature. Despite the fairly active period of weather, no significant weather is expected at this time.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR conditions prevail across terminals as rain showers continue to exit the region, although a few occasional periods of MVFR have been observed within showers due to brief periods of reduced visibilities. Showers will continue to exit the region over the next few hours, with a period of drier conditions towards morning before another batch of showers arrive tomorrow afternoon. While VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the first half of the forecast period, ceilings are expected to lower towards 21Z or so, bringing more widespread MVFR conditions. Southerly winds will continue to increase towards the morning, with gusts in excess of 25 knots possible at all terminals. Winds will remain gusty through the majority of the forecast period, but the strongest winds are generally expected between 10Z and 18Z. Widespread LLWS is expected at all terminals, especially this morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

EQUIPMENT

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NYZ026-027-030-031-034.