textproduct: Burlington

SYNOPSIS

Widespread snow arrives this evening and tonight, with most areas seeing 1 to 2 inches of snow by daybreak tomorrow and 2 to 6 inches expected in St. Lawrence and Franklin counties of New York. Seasonably cold weather continues into the New Year along with occasional chances for mountain and lake effect snow showers.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 137 AM EST Wednesday... **A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for St. Lawrence and Franklin counties of New York 4 PM this afternoon through 7 AM tomorrow morning. **Lake enhanced snow will transition to lighter, fluffier snow this evening through tomorrow morning, accumulating around 2 to 6 inches in these two counties. **Plan on slippery road conditions and periods of poor visibility during the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes, as well as a period between 8 PM and 1 AM when snow may be particularly heavy.

Upslope snow showers are expected to taper off this morning with dry conditions into the afternoon. Temperatures should rise into the upper teens and 20s today, still 5-10 degrees below seasonal normals but much milder than yesterday. Morning wind gusts 15-20 knots out of the southwest will decrease in the afternoon. Then, southwesterly flow will transport Lake Ontario moisture into the region, causing some light to moderate snowfall to develop across northern New York in the afternoon and evening. Surface low pressure will slide across or just southeast of the St. Lawrence Valley tonight as a large upper low moves across Ontario and Quebec to the north and northwest. We're expecting a band of moderate to perhaps briefly heavy snow developing downwind of Lake Ontario and between the two lows, likely in the St. Lawrence Valley, Adirondacks, and northern Greens.

Unfortunately for those ringing in the new year across northern New York, the heaviest snow is anticipated right around 8 PM through 1 AM, so please use caution if traveling anywhere for the celebrations. The surface low is expected to drag a cold front through the forecast area tonight as well, transitioning the snowfall from a lower ratio lake enhanced snow to a lighter, fluffier, high ratio snow that will blow around more easily tomorrow morning. Temperatures will be in the teens and lower 20s around midnight on New Year's Day, falling into the bitter -5 to 15 F range as the front draws in colder air.

Winds will be on the increase again tonight out of the northwest, peaking tomorrow morning as snow comes to an end with gusts 10-25 knots, higher on mountaintops and on Lake Champlain. This is likely to blow around snow, allowing treacherous travel conditions to continue after snow ends. Temperatures tomorrow will only reach the single digits to mid 20s despite decreasing clouds, running 10-20 degrees below averages. Plus, the gusty winds will make it feel even colder with wind chills in the negatives.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 137 AM EST Wednesday...Tomorrow night will be especially frigid with clear patches in the sky at times, though winds are expected to decrease. Lows are forecast to fall into the single digits above and below negative. Then, Friday will be yet another cold day with highs in the teens and lower 20s and increasing clouds as flow turns once more out of the southwest, increasing chances of some more lake enhanced snow showers in northern New York, about 30-60% chance of measurable precipitation in southern St. Lawrence and Franklin counties. Moisture has about a 10-30% chance of making its way out to the Champlain Valley and northern Greens to produce the odd snow shower.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 139 AM EST Wednesday...Broad cyclonic flow will be quite persistent for the extended forecast, generally keeping temperatures below seasonal averages with weaker variety troughs anticipated to move through in rapid succession. This overall pattern does not favor heavy snowfall, but will lead to periods of showers especially over higher terrain. Temperatures will be running below seasonal averages with the base of the longwave trough favored over the eastern seaboard. Highs are only expected in the teens with lows in the single digits around zero continuing our recent cold stretch. A decent number of models show the pattern begin to shift early next week, allowing for what would likely be a clipper-style system to move through the region. Timing and details are suspect this far out, but will watch this system's evolution for potential to move the snow line northward which could result in mixed frozen/freezing precipitation characteristics.

AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 06Z Thursday...Lingering IFR snow showers are ongoing at SLK and will persist until dry air works in. Radar imagery supports scouring snow showers by 8-10Z. RUT also will start IFR/MVFR with a narrow band of snow showers directed at the terminal; this band will be more short-lived so expecting it to clear mostly by 07Z. Elsewhere, showers are tapering off with winds beginning to come up again. Could see some gusts returning this morning before the gradient relaxes after 12Z. LLWS will be a hazard for SLK/RUT/MPV with a stronger core of low level winds moving through between 06- 14Z. Otherwise, MVFR/IFR chances increase after 21Z with the next snow showers arriving this evening and overnight. Lowest VIS/CIGs will be at SLK/MSS where snow bands may develop.

Outlook...

New Years Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.

EQUIPMENT

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

The Newport AWOS has stopped reporting due to a communications failure likely at the site. TAF amendments will not be scheduled until this issue is resolved.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ026-027-029-030-087.