textproduct: Burlington

SYNOPSIS

Clouds will quickly increase this morning with a period of light snow developing this afternoon and continuing into tonight. Total snow accumulations of a dusting to 3 inches can be expected with areas of slick travel during the evening commute. Our next stronger system arrives late Tuesday into Wednesday with a widespread snow and mixed precipitation event anticipated. After a cool start temperatures will rebound to near normal values by Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 152 AM EST Monday...Sfc analysis places 1025mb high pres at KMSS this morning with temps ranging from -15F at SLK to +10F near Lake Champlain. The combination of pockets of clouds and some gradient flow has kept temps from completely bottoming out early this morning. GOES-19 water vapor clearly shows our next s/w and pocket of enhanced mid lvl moisture and cooling cloud tops on the IR acrs the central Great Lakes. This mid lvl vort and associated waa lift wl move into northern NY by 18z and into most of VT by 00z this evening. Initially sounding data shows lingering dry layer btwn sfc and 700mb, so precip may start as a period of virga/flurries, before complete saturation of modifying arctic airmass occurs. Once saturation occurs, sounding data indicates deep moist layer from sfc thru 500mb for several hours late this aftn/evening within favorable DGZ. Did note the HREF mean hourly snowfall rates of 0.25 to 0.50" associated with best lift/moisture this evening. Given movement of dynamics and moisture, did increase qpf by 10% to 15% over NBM, which combined with snow ratios 15/18 to 1 produces a 0.5 to 3.5" snowfall acrs our region. Highest amounts near from southern SLV to the High Peaks to southern Greens, with a dusting to 1 inch over NEK, where drier air from departing high pres wl be located. Given timing of snowfall, a slick evening commute is likely, including parts of the CPV. Temps warm mid teens SLV/NEK to mid 20s southern SLV to southern CPV, which results in an all snow event.

Tonight system quickly exits our cwa btwn 03-06z with light snow tapering off. Temps are tricky with fresh snow cover and potential for some clearing aft 06z, but 925mb temps are warming under weak southwest waa. So have kept close to NBM with values ranging from single digits to mid teens, but a few colder readings near zero are possible.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 152 AM EST Monday...Next system currently acrs the inter- mountain west wl eject acrs the northern/central Plains today with developing area of low pres expected near Chicago by 12z Tuesday. This area of low pres wl deepen and quickly move eastward in the fast 700mb to 500mb flow aloft and be located near Buffalo by 03z Weds. This system wl be stronger with deeper moisture and better dynamics, so a winter wx advisory type of an event is likely for late Tues into Weds. As low pres approaches the 925mb to 700mb thermal gradient sharpens acrs our cwa, resulting in the potential for some mixed precip. 00z guidance trends have been slightly cooler with thermal profiles as CAD signature from lingering high pres over northern Maine helps to keep colder air locked in, while enhancing secondary development over the SNE coast by 12z Weds. The combination of evaporational and dynamical cooling associated with deep layer lift with initial band of waa should result in a burst of moderate snow acrs our cwa late Tues into Tues night. Snowfall rates of 0.5 to 1.5" per hour are possible, given band of favorable 850 to 700mb fgen forcing and moderately strong 700 to 500mb omega fields, especially btwn 03z-06z Weds. As mid/upper lvl trof and associated embedded s/w energy move directly overhead btwn 06-12z Weds another round of light precip wl be expected acrs most of our cwa. Thermal profiles support mostly snow with some mix possible of sleet/freezing rain over the western Dacks and parts of the CPV. Total snowfall looks to be in the 2 to 6 inch range with some minor ice accumulation possible by midday Weds. Given relatively modest sfc to 850mb flow associated with 1000mb low pres, precip fields should have limited trrn influence with this system. Some lingering upslope snow showers are possible on Weds aftn, but moisture in the favorable DGZ is quickly decreasing, so some areas of drizzle/mtn freezing drizzle is possible. Temps warm into the upper 20s to mid 30s Tues and Weds with little change in overnight lows, given clouds/precip.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 152 AM EST Monday...A vertically stacked low pressure system will shift north and east from New Brunswick and Nova Scotia through the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Wednesday night, resulting in a decrease of atmospheric moisture across northern New York and Vermont as high pressure moves in. Models indicate the snow growth zone during this period will remain fairly dry. However, upslope snow showers may linger across the mountains as soundings appear saturated below 800 mb. Temperatures in the 20s overnight will be near to slightly below seasonal normals.

Temperatures look to rise into the upper 30s and lower 40s most places on Thursday in what looks to be a dry day as overall flow turns southwesterly ahead of our next storm system. This next system is a strong low pressure that models are starting to come into better agreement on the track and timing of, and one that is most likely to bring the forecast area mostly rain. Forecast highs in the 40s Friday and Saturday support this, though depending on the arrival time of the precipitation, Thursday night could still have some lows 32 and below, resulting in a touch of wintry precipitation at the onset. Fortunately in terms of snowmelt and river ice movement, impacts are expected to be minimal to none.

Some back end snow showers are possible on Saturday night into Sunday as temperatures fall back into the 20s to lower 30s. Snow will be most likely in the mountains, and we are still not anticipating significant snowfall amounts. Early next week, another stretch of cold temperatures with chances for snow showers is expected.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 06Z Tuesday...Cloud coverage is currently decreasing across northern New York and Vermont, leaving us in a very quiet, VFR, light/variable wind dominated period until around 16Z-22Z Monday. Flurries and light snow are then expected as a weaker variety clipper system speeds through the region, turning winds out of the south and southeast. Moisture continues to be low given cold conditions and lack of sufficient moisture source. The coverage and intensity of the snow showers will rely greatly on the amount of moisture we can pull in from the Great Lakes.

Heaviness and steadiness are expected to gradually ramp up around 16Z-18Z, then a period of steady, IFR vis snow is most likely 18Z- 03Z, tapering off afterwards. Clouds will also thicken and lower ahead of the approaching snow this morning, lowering below 3000 feet by around 17Z-22Z, remaining low through the end of the 24 hour TAF period. There is the potential for places like SLK, RUT, and MSS (more directly in the track of the clipper) to have ceilings dip below 1000 feet, but at this time confidence is low on the timing and duration of this occurring. Winds will generally stay below 10 knots over the next 24 hours.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SN, Definite FZRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance RA, Slight chance SN. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance RA, Chance SN. Friday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely RA.

EQUIPMENT

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.