textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 221 PM EDT Friday...

The wind advisory has been cancelled. Winds will remain gusty tonight and on Saturday but will remain below advisory threshold.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 221 PM EDT Friday...

1. Gusty winds to continue through Saturday with much cooler temperatures on the way. First round of snowfall expected for the high peaks tonight.

2. Next week continues to trend very quiet as high pressure builds in across the area with temperatures near normal and high confidence in an extended dry period of weather.

DISCUSSION

As of 221 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: We are currently in the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front with temperatures warming into the mid 50s to lower 60s. As of 1 PM, the approaching cold front was located in far western New York and will continue to quickly push east this afternoon and evening. A sharp thermal gradient will allow for temperatures to plummet quickly in the wake of the cold front with an abrupt wind direction shift from the south to the northwest. With increasing moisture in the warm sector, we should see rain showers continue into the evening ahead of the front but rainfall amounts don't look to be anything impressive at this time. As rainfall taper off in the wake of the cold front, the northwesterly flow regime will support upslope rain and/or snow showers across the western slopes of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. Our current thinking is that locations above 2000 ft may be able to accumulate up to an inch of snow while a few flurries could be seen as low as 1500 ft. Overall impacts will be minimal and likely confined to grassy surfaces as the ground temperature will remain above freezing through the period of possible snow.

Saturday will be quite the transition to a more winter-like pattern as temperatures will struggle to climb into the 40s while winds remain gusty in the 20 to 30 mph range. This will lead to wind chills in the 20s and 30s throughout the day with wind chills as low as the single digits above and below zero across the high peaks. If you plan to be outdoors tomorrow please dress for the weather as this change in weather pattern may be surprising to many! Saturday night will be the coldest night as winds finally abate and skies clear with lows falling into the 20s to near 30 degrees with the warmest values in and around Lake Champlain. A rebound to more seasonal normal temperatures is expected for Sunday with highs warming into the 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A rex block will begin to develop for the Northeast as surface high pressure builds in from the west on Monday with a developing coastal low across the southeast. High pressure will keep any moisture well to our south through the extended period, with high confidence in an extended dry period. That said, some high clouds and cirrus clouds will be possible early next week, especially in southern Vermont. With the extended period of dry weather anticipated, and trees losing leaves, fire weather concerns may increase towards the latter portion of next week as we dry out from this weeks rains early next week. Winds look to be on the weak side with light and terrain driven flow under high pressure, which should be beneficial to lowering fire weather concerns. Temperatures will return to normal levels by early next week with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s, and overnight lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 00Z Sunday...A mix of flight conditions currently prevail across the region as a cold front continues to push through the region. MVFR ceilings mostly prevail, although some IFR continues at KSLK and KMPV. In general, MVFR ceilings are expected to prevail for much of the night, with an improvement towards VFR towards 12Z. A few rain showers continue across the region, although they are expected to diminish and become more scattered, with PROB30 groups utilized and the potential for some snow to mix in at mountain sites which may impact visibilities. Winds will continue to become more west to northwesterly over the next few hours, although they will remain breezy through much of the forecast period, with wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots possible, especially at KBTV/KPBG. Gusts look to diminish towards the very end of the forecast period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

MARINE

A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for much of Lake Champlain through Saturday afternoon. Although the strongest winds have ended, we will continue to see 15 to 30 knot winds across the lake through Saturday. Winds are from the south at the moment but will switch to the north after sunset following the passage of a cold front. Winds may briefly weaken below 25 knots as the wind shift occurs but winds are expected to ramp back up during the overnight hours. Wave have subsided to 2 to 4 feet and will likely subside further as the wind shift occurs but waves in the 2 to 4 ft range will likely develop again on Saturday with the persistent northerly winds.

CLIMATE

Daily low maximum temperatures will likely be broken on Saturday. Current records at some climate sites in our region are as follows:

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

October 17: KBTV: 42/1970 KPBG: 44/2015 KSLK: 36/1970

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.