textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 117 PM EDT Thursday...

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 117 PM EDT Thursday...

1. Showery and cooler weather is expected through the weekend with potential for a very isolated thunderstorm Friday afternoon.

2. Omega block to continue through much of next week with seasonably cool temperatures and period of showers.

DISCUSSION

As of 117 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: The region will remain under a northwest flow pattern through the end of the week into the weekend keeping temperatures cooler than seasonal averages and promoting daily shower potential as a series of troughs move through. The strongest feature will move through Friday bringing more widespread shower chances, cold temperatures aloft with steepening lapse rates, and some breezes. With the cold pool favored to move directly across northern New York and Vermont, some light snow is probable at peak levels of the Adirondacks and possibly the Greens. Accumulations will be light to negligible given recent warmer conditions and likely rapid melting of snow as it contacts the surface of the ridges. Still up to an inch of snow is possible, especially in the Adirondacks, and could catch more casual hikers off guard. If you have hiking plans at higher elevations, expect to need some cold weather gear. Periodic breezy conditions are expected, especially in the northern Champlain Valley where flow tends to be more channeled; gusts 20-30 mph possible this afternoon over Lake Champlain and again Friday night as the upper low passes bringing a resurgence of northerly flow.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A series of shortwaves will help reinforce the upper level low anchoring the eastern periphery of the omega block on Monday and Tuesday. Scattered showers are expected due to the increased forcing from the shortwave energy which will help keep temperatures below seasonal normals. Global guidance continues to slow the breaking down of the omega block which is quite typical in long-duration blocking patterns. It does look like the blocking pattern will finally begin to weaken on Wednesday with the upper low pushing to the east/northeast and the ridge across the central US shifting eastward. The ridge is expected to weaken and become less amplified as it shifts eastward which will advect in much warmer temperatures (close to seasonal normals) but won't be to the same extreme seen further west.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 18Z Friday...VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. There will be a few showers that pop up this afternoon that could lead to very localized visibilities dropping to as low as 5SM and have been included as PROB30 groups at most terminals. Gusty north winds this afternoon will weaken and go light/variable overnight with winds switching to the south/southwest between 14Z and 18Z on Friday. Winds will likely become gusty at 15 to 20 knots between 16Z and 18Z on Friday. Additional showers will be possible on Friday but are most likely to occur after 18Z.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite SHRA. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.