textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 311 AM EDT Thursday...

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 311 AM EDT Thursday...

1. Unsettled pattern prevails through Friday with several rounds of showers expected, with greatest concentration over the higher terrain.

2. Cooler and drier weather develops late Friday into Saturday, with patchy frost possible in the Champlain Valley on Saturday morning.

3. Remnants of tropical system to bring rain to parts of our region.

DISCUSSION

As of 311 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: An upper level low slowly builds into the region today and tomorrow, bringing several rounds of showers as shortwaves pivot around the longwave trough. Instability will reach its maximum today and some of the stronger showers will likely contain thunder. Pea sized hail will be possible, and maybe graupel in the higher terrain. The highest chances for showers will be farther north where the better dynamics and coldest air aloft will be. A lowering inversion heading into Friday should prevent any thunder chances, with instability only reaching up to around 10,000 feet and not significantly surpassing -10 Celsius. However, the airmass will continue to cool and temperatures at the summits are expected to fall below freezing on Friday, so a few flurries/snow showers will be possible in the mountains, especially farther north. Snow levels look to drop to around 3,500-4,000 feet. Flow remains unblocked heading through Friday as the inversion will stay well above summit level.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Surface high pressure builds in for the weekend, leading to a couple classic fall days. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s with mostly sunny skies. Radiational cooling conditions will become somewhat favorable for Friday night, but some lingering boundary flow may prevent the most efficient temperature decreases. The boundary layer looks to decouple at least in the later part of the night though. Frost formation is expected across most of the region, but it looks more uncertain in the Champlain Valley, the only area left in the growing season. Temperatures there will be marginal and winds there will likely hold on the longest.

KEY MESSAGE 3: The remnants of Isaias will bring some rain to southern portions of our forecast area Sunday night into Monday. Not expecting any strong winds with this system. Northern extent of precipitation is uncertain. For now have highest chances for precipitation from Saranac Lake NY to Montpelier VT and areas south of there.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 12Z Friday...An area of isolated showers is currently moving across the area, and could potentially lower conditions briefly to MVFR. Additional isolated to scattered showers are expected again this afternoon, with the best chances to impact MSS. Included a PROB30 group there for brief MVFR visibility with showers. Otherwise, winds remain brisk out of the south and will become more westerly during the day today.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Columbus Day: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE

A Lake Wind Advisory continues with sustained southerly winds between 20-30 KT. Winds will turn southwesterly and then westerly this morning, and will then drop into the 10-20 KT range. Wave heights will drop from the 1-3 foot range to below 2 feet after this wind shift occurs.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.