textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 221 PM EDT Saturday...

No significant changes were made.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 221 PM EDT Saturday...

1. Dry weather continues through the beginning of next week.

2. Cool and unsettled weather is expected for the latter half of next week, with daily shower chances.

DISCUSSION

As of 221 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: High pressure extending all the way from Nunavut, Canada, into New England, will dominate the weather for the rest of the weekend and the start of the next work week as omega blocking sets up and ridging builds early next week. The result will be no precipitation, light winds, sunny skies, low humidity, and increasing temperatures. Highs each day will be in the 60s each day, reaching into the lower 70s for the wider valleys on Tuesday with plenty of sunshine. Low temperatures look to fall into the upper 20s to mid 40s each night under optimal radiational cooling conditions, also increasing as we head towards the midweek. Relative humidity values should drop into the 25-40% range each afternoon and will be accompanied by largely winds 10 mph or less. One exception will be Tuesday, when overall winds do look to increase slightly out of the south and southeast across northern New York and Vermont. After a period of no precipitation, this means that Tuesday is our main focus for fire weather concerns. The combination of low relative humidities, increasing winds, increasing temperatures, and lack of recent precipitation indicate we'll likely need fire weather coordination with partners (to get a sense of how dry fuels are) and initiate more fire weather messaging. If any fires were to start on Tuesday, the weather conditions could cause fires to quickly get out of control and be difficult to contain.

KEY MESSAGE 2: After the dry start to the week, a cool and unsettled weather pattern is expected across the region towards mid-week as an upper level low lingers over the Northeast. Temperatures will be fairly seasonable mid-week, with high temperatures generally in upper 50s and low 60s, but a cooling trend is expected heading towards next weekend, with high temperatures only in the mid 40s and 50s. Daily chances for showers can be expected as several shortwaves rotate about the upper low, with steep lapse rates aiding in shower development. With the colder temperatures late in the week, some mountain snow showers will be possible. Although exact precipitation amounts are unclear at this time range, the latest NBM shows a 30 to 60 percent chance of receiving 0.5 inches of precipitation over a 3- day period, so despite daily chances of precipitation amounts will generally be light.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 18Z Sunday...VFR conditions will continue to prevail at all terminals through the forecast period, with dry weather and a few high clouds streaming into the region. Winds will generally be light and terrain driven, with many locations trending calm overnight. Channeled northeasterly flow will lead to stronger winds at KMSS through the afternoon, with gusts in excess of 20 knots. Otherwise, winds will generally be less than 10 knots throughout the forecast period.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA. Thursday: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.