textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 228 PM EDT Wednesday...

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 228 PM EDT Wednesday...

1. Showers return for late tomorrow into Friday

2. While heat and humidity will gradually build early next week, significant heat is not expected during this period. Isolated or scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each day into mid week, especially on Sunday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

As of 228 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: After a mostly dry mid-week, another area of low pressure will track into the region from the west Thursday night. It looks to be weaker than the event earlier in the week, with the pressure only dropping to around 1010 MB as it passes through. A weak warm front will pass through late Thursday into Thursday night, bringing the first round of showers. There will be enough synoptic ascent to try to cause a brief round of stratiform precip. Behind it, it should end with a few areas of weak elevated convection. A break looks to occur Friday morning after the warm front passes east, especially over southern areas, before a broken line of showers tries to form in the afternoon. Through Friday, GEFS/EPS/CMCE combined ensemble probabilities of receiving more than 0.5 inches are between 50-75 percent and probabilities of receiving more than an inch are less than 25 percent. On Friday afternoon, around 500-1000 J of CAPE looks to form and 0-6 KM shear looks to be around 30-35 KT, so a few strong storms will be possible. However, increasing dry air aloft and relatively weak synoptic dynamics will help minimize the threat. Adequate storm movement and the break between the warm front and the convection will minimize the flood threat.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Temperatures will steadily warm towards mid next week, though not too particularly hot as we head into July. Ensemble height fields denote moderate surface ridging centered in the Ohio Valley building in by Monday. The best chance for a fully dry day next week looks to be Monday as the ridge axis extends north along the St. Lawrence Valley allowing for the best chance for sunny skies. Temperatures will peak towards the upper 80s to near 90 by Tuesday/Wednesday as the ridge axis peaks near the region. Most guidance continues to show that reaching 90 may be difficult as ensembles depict some troughing from the east edging towards Vermont and northern New York. Some ridge rollers along the periphery of the Ohio Valley ridge may lead to some increased cloud cover and afternoon precipitation chances. Dewpoints will also increase towards the mid to upper 60s for Tuesday/Wednesday afternoon. While temperature and dewpoints will be increasing towards mid next week, the maximum extent of the any heat risk remain uncertain. There will be slight to moderate risk likely at least, though any more significant heat risk leans more unlikely given the presence of troughing east of the region across Maine and the Canadian Maritimes. As we near the 4th of July, changes to the position of the ridge axis will play a large role in our weather for any holiday festivities.

With the increasing temperatures and moisture, instability will subsequently increase by mid week with daily shower and thunderstorm chances each day. The latest model blend probabilities show around 10-20% chance for thunder Sunday and Monday, with slightly higher amounts to 20-30% Tuesday and Wednesday. While there is still a potential for some stronger storms Tuesday with CAPE around 1000J/kg, recent model trends have backed off slightly on the amount of instability present. Owing likely to increased CIN from a combination of convective debris and uncertainty in the placement of the eastern troughing. There is still quite a spread for any convective potential into next week though some chances for some diurnally driven shower chances look increasingly possible with the increased temperatures and dewpoints. As of right now, statistical guidance from the NAEFS and EFI do not show any noteworthy unusual weather from a temperature or precipitation standpoint.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 18Z Thursday...Terminals will remain VFR at least through 06Z tonight, with some isolated IFR FG potential. Conditions through this afternoon into this evening will feature breezy west to northwest gusts around 15 to 20 knots, with prevailing winds around 10 knots. Winds will weaken with the loss of daylight tonight. Ceilings should remain between 5000 to 8000 ft agl. A stray shower may pass near EFK between 18-21Z, but any shower activity should not be strong enough to see terminal impacts. GLAMP guidance shows a slight chance to chance for MVFR or below visibilities at MPV/EFK/SLK tonight after 06Z, but increasing cloud cover from the west and some continued light flow aloft across eastern Vermont should be enough to limit any fog potential. Have left any mention of fog out of this TAF package with the expectation that surface FG will not be able to develop at any particular terminal with the increasing clouds and detachment for previous rains. Tomorrow morning will see winds turn southerly by sunrise, with shower chances beginning to increase by the end of this TAF period.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.