textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 932 AM EDT Sunday...

The Lake Wind Advisory has ended for the broad waters of Lake Champlain.

Frost coverage for tonight and Monday night have been increased. Frost advisories will be likely forthcoming as the growing season for much of Vermont and portions of Northern New York begin on May 11th.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 222 AM EDT Sunday...

1. Rain chances to continue through Monday afternoon.

2. Cooler and drier late Monday through the middle of the week. Overnight frost is likely across much of the region tonight and Monday night.

3. Gradual warming trend to near and above normal temperatures late next week and weekend with a few chances of showers or rain.

DISCUSSION

As of 222 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A pre-frontal trough has been the focus for overnight rain showers and some gusty winds up to 30 mph. The ongoing round of precipitation will exit to the north and east between 4 and 5 AM with a break in rainfall expected until about 10 AM when some light rain associated with the main cold front will move into the region. This round of rain will quickly shift eastward with dry air quickly undercutting the precipitation and leading to rapidly clearing skies in the wake. Additional rain showers are possible on Monday with weak shortwave energy traversing the periphery of the departing upper level low but will be widely scattered and very light given a plethora of dry air in the lower levels.

Temperatures will warm nicely under dry adiabatic lapse rates prior to the mid-level cold air advection kicking in with afternoon highs climbing into the 60s with a few places possibly approaching 70 degrees. With warming temperatures and clear skies, we expect an uptick in people heading outdoors to enjoy the nice weather. Gusty south to southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph are expected through much of the day so be prepared for these windy conditions if you plan to be outdoors. In addition, very choppy conditions are expected on Lake Champlain due to the strong winds. With water temperatures dangerously cold, in the lower 40s, we encourage anyone on the lake or other area waterways to have proper PFDs in case of water immersion.

KEY MESSAGE 2: As deep layer ridging settles into the region over the next few days, we will see some good radiational cooling night with light winds and clear skies. This will likely set the stage for widespread front tonight and again Monday night. As of May 1st, the growing season had started just for the Champlain Valley but starting on May 11th, the growing season is expanded to much of Vermont and portions of northern New York. This will lead to the likely issuance of frost advisories over the next few nights with Monday night seeing more widespread frost compared to what is expected tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Northern stream shortwave and surface low tracks across Great Lakes and Northeast Wed ngt-Thu for showers and is somewhat slow to exit so chance of showers will linger Thu ngt-Fri under upper low/trof. Otherwise as mentioned yesterday...gradual rising heights and a somewhat flattening flow, not the ridging as it began as northern stream still has several impulses that dampens the ridge. Temperatures gradually moderate during this period with perhaps dry for Saturday and maybe more showers on Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 06Z Monday...A frontal boundary will move across the area this morning with a wind shift. Ahead of this is weakening showers with some MVFR in CIGS thru 12-14z.

SSW winds 8-10 knots becoming WNW by 16z and gusty to 20-25 kts. Mixing with the cold air advection will allow for bkn-ovc to become SCT as the morning and aftn progresses.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Patchy frost. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.