textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 224 PM EDT Monday...

No significant changes have been made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 224 PM EDT Monday...

1. Seasonably warm and sunny conditions will continue this afternoon and tomorrow, with possible fog overnight.

2. Warm and humid weather is expected towards the latter half of next week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms.

3. Cooler over the weekend into next week with a few shower chances.

DISCUSSION

As of 224 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonably warm weather will prevail this afternoon and tomorrow as the region remains under the influence of high pressure overhead. Sunny and dry conditions continue this afternoon, with high temperatures climbing into the upper 70s and low 80s with relative humidity values dropping into the 25 to 30 percent range. Another night of good radiational cooling will allow for overnight lows to drop into the mid 40s and mid 50s. Fog development overnight will be possible again, but it's expected to be less widespread given the drier conditions today, mainly confined to the more favored locations.

Another seasonably warm and dry day is expected for tomorrow. Temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer in comparison to today as the ridge axis shifts eastward, with high temperatures climbing into the 80s areawide.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A messy weather pattern is expected for the latter half of next week as southerly flow continues to usher in warm and humid conditions. An embedded upper level trough looks to push through the region on Wednesday, bringing shower chances to the region. These showers will limit how warm temperatures climb during the day, with highs generally expected to be in the 70s and low 80s. Despite the trough pushing through, the lack of instability and forcing will limit thunderstorm potential. Warm and humid conditions are expected to continue through the end of the week, with Thursday and Friday likely being the warmest days. High temperatures look to climb into the 80s and possibly the lower 90s, with dewpoints in the 60s making it feel quite muggy, although any shower development may impact how warm temperatures are able to reach. Overnight lows look to stay on the warmer side as well, only dropping into the upper 50s and 60s which will provide little relief from the heat. With such a humid airmass across the region, there look to be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through end the week.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Large scale troughing slowly builds into the region this weekend and into next week, gradually lowering temperatures and bringing multiple rounds of shower chances. While any concerns for heat headlines will end with the cold front on Friday, the trough and the associated cooler air will build in gradually so it will be longer before it feels fully refreshing. After any lingering showers clear sometime Friday night behind the first shortwave, Saturday looks to be mostly dry and still relatively warm. The next shortwave looks to come through Sunday with another chance for showers, knocking the temperatures down a bit more behind it. By the start of next week, the dew points look to be in the 50s and highs look to be in the 70s and low 80s. Another shortwave with associated showers is possible for Monday or Tuesday. These shortwaves all look to be quick moving so there are currently not any flooding concerns.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 18Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will mostly prevail for the next 24 hours. The only exception could be tonight when patchy fog formation is expected in the region. Right now, the probability of the fog specifically reaching any of the terminals is relatively low, maybe around 20-25 percent for MPV and SLK. Elsewhere, fog is not expected. Any fog should lift by 13Z and VFR conditions will persist for the rest of the day. Light and variable winds will continue through tonight, with some minor terrain effects. Winds will become southerly tomorrow, and gusts in the 5 to 15 KT range are expected at BTV and PBG.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.