textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 254 AM EDT Friday...

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 254 AM EDT Friday...

1. Isolated to scattered showers today followed by a mostly dry weekend.

2. The remnants of Isaias will bring periods of rain Sunday night into Monday morning but no significant impacts expected.

3. Frontal system to bring next chances for showers on Monday night into Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

As of 254 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: An upper level low continues to build into the region today, bringing a couple more rounds of showers. The most widespread showers look to be in the afternoon and early evening as a broken line pushes down from the north. These will again be convective, and with temperatures aloft continuing to cool, a bit of graupel or pea sized hail will be possible out of the strongest showers. Shorter storms will make thunder unlikely, though it cannot be completely ruled out. Snow levels look to drop to around 4,000 feet before the precipitation exits this evening, so a couple flurries/snow showers are possible in the highest peaks. While hypothetical snow levels will continue to fall tonight, any sufficient moisture capable of producing precipitation will have exited, though a few lingering low clouds could produce rime ice. Surface high pressure builds into the region for tomorrow, leading to mostly sunny skies, lightening winds and high temperatures in the 50s for most places. Relatively widespread frost is likely tomorrow morning, but winds look to remain elevated for a longer portion of Friday night, so its extent in the Champlain looks somewhat limited and uncertain, though it could be enough for a Frost Advisory to be issued today. High pressure pushes to the east for Sunday and return southerly flow will cause temperatures to rise into the 60s. High clouds ahead of Isaias will infiltrate the region during the day.

KEY MESSAGE 2: The center of the remnants of Isaias will track well to our south Sunday night into Monday morning, but the precipitation shield will extend far north so showers and a period of stratiform rain are expected away from the international border. Totals ranging up to a half inch are currently expected, with the highest values farther south. There will likely be a sharp gradient on the northern end and where this exactly sets up remains uncertain. The rain should move out for most of the day monday though.

KEY MESSAGE 3: A low pressure system will track north of our forecast area, and a surface cold front drops south across our area on Tuesday. This front crossing the area brings our next chance for showers to the region. Following this frontal passage temperatures will trend below normal for a couple days.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 12Z Saturday...Mainly VFR conditions expected through the TAF period, with localized MVFR ceilings early this morning at SLK. Elsewhere, ceilings will remain 4000+ ft. Clouds lift after 14z as mixing increases and MVFR will prevail thereafter. Additional scattered showers will develop again today, but only MVFR visibility restrictions possible briefly. Winds will trend a bit more NW and increasing to 6-10 kt with gusts to 20 kt after 14z.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Columbus Day: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA.

MARINE

A Lake Wind Advisory is not in effect. However, a brief sharp increase in winds into the 25-35 KT range is possible in the afternoon as winds turn northerly behind a cold front.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.