textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 249 AM EDT Thursday...

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 249 AM EDT Thursday...

1. Trending showery and cooler heading into the weekend.

2. Showers with embedded rumbles of thunder possible on Monday with a slow drying and warming trend expected by mid to late next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 249 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Mostly dry conditions will prevail through Friday morning, though a few isolated showers are expected this afternoon and evening. A deep upper-level low moves through Friday night into Saturday, bringing anomalously cold air for the time of year. Its passage will cause widespread showers due to the forcing and instability caused by the cold air aloft. Snow levels will likely drop below summit levels, though any snow showers should remain in the mountains. The current lowest snow levels are forecasted to drop to around 3,500 feet, though questions remain if there will be consistent precipitation during this time. Very minor accumulations there are increasingly likely though. There is still some model uncertainty on the timing of the passage of the core of the low and associated showers. A GEFS/CMC/EPS ensemble mean brings the lowest temperatures aloft Saturday morning. The ensemble average is 0 celsius at 850 mb and 3 celsius at 925 mb. Saturday morning will likely be showery and cool, though though it is increasingly likely that it will trend a bit warmer with some clearing in the afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Little change has been observed in the latest guidance from WPC, which supports unsettled wx and below normal temps thru Tues of next week. Mid/upper lvl trof prevails acrs the ne conus with potent s/w energy in the northerly flow aloft progged to impact our cwa Sunday night into Monday. This is energy is expected to deepen and close off another 700-500mb cyclonic circulation over central New England by Monday. As cool pool aloft moves directly overhead on Monday and some weak boundary layer heating develops, sfc to 700mb lapse rates increase >8.0 C/kg, while weak sliver of CAPE develops. This instability and dynamics should be enough to spark a few low top/shallow rumbles of thunder on Monday aftn. A few stronger cores maybe capable of small hail/graupel given low freezing levels. The highest probability of precip per latest WPC forecast wl be Sunday night into Monday at 45 to 60% acrs our cwa. Additional lobes of mid lvl moisture and weak embedded s/w energy in the northerly flow aloft continue to impact our cwa on Tues with the threat for more showers. Eventually drier air slowly develops as mid/upper lvl ridge that is anchored over the Central Plains shifts eastward. The exact timing of departing deep mid/upper lvl trof and building ridge remains uncertain, given the large spread in latest guidance. WPC shows a slow decrease in areal coverage of pops for Weds/Thurs with temps warming back into the 70s to near 80 by Thurs. Temps wl hold mostly in the 60s to near 70F for Monday/Tues with cool northerly flow and plenty of clouds, while lows hold in the mid 40s to mid/upper 50s most nights.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 12Z Friday...Scattered showers are across northern NY with mostly VFR conditions, except localized MVFR at EFK and IFR at RUT. Conditions at RUT should improve to MVFR shortly. Mostly VFR conditions will prevail for the next 12 to 24 hours with intervals of MVFR cigs/vis possible at RUT/EFK/SLK and MPV this morning. Have utilized tempo group to cover potential MVFR conditions with PROB30 to highlight the potential for scattered showers. Winds 5 to 10 knots with localized gusts 15 to 20 knots possible between 15z-21z. Showers should dissipate by 22z with mostly VFR conditions prevailing into the overnight hours.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.