textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 217 PM EDT Sunday...

No significant changes to the current forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 217 PM EDT Sunday...

1. A chilly overnight period tonight will be followed by quiet and dry weather well into mid week.

2. Dry and seasonable conditions continue through next weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 217 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: High pressure remains overhead this afternoon with some channeling enhanced winds in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valley. Winds will continue to remain breezy in the wider valleys through tonight, especially across northern New York. A low-level jet associated with a broad area of low pressure centered well north into the Hudson Bay will bring continued southwest flow to the St. Lawrence Valley overnight. Beyond sunset, typical radiational cooling process will lower temperatures towards freezing in the Northeast Kingdom and near the Connecticut River under clear skies. Across northern New York, the low level jet will likely stifle radiational cooling conditions with increased flow aloft as well as advecting some warmer air, keeping lows in the low to mid 40s for the St. Lawrence Valley and the low to mid 30s for most of the Adirondacks. South to southwest flow will continue to bring warmer air into the region with highs tomorrow into the low 60s. A weak moisture starved cold front will slide south from Canada Monday night into Tuesday and wash out over the area with no precipitation expected, though some morning clouds and cooler temperatures can be expected Tuesday morning. Sunny skies will prevail thereafter with large scale ridging leading to low humidity and light winds through mid week. There continues to be high confidence of no precipitation areawide at least through mid week.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A classic stretch of fall weather will continue late this week and through the weekend. Surface high pressure will build south out of Quebec on Thursday and Friday, bringing cold air advection. Highs will drop from the mid-50s to lower 60s on Thursday into the upper 40s to around 50 on Friday. The high should be centered almost directly overhead over the weekend, leading to clear skies, light winds and highs in the 50s. Most mornings will be frosty during this stretch, with lows in the 20s and 30s.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 00Z Tuesday...VFR will continue during the period. Skies will be mainly clear, aside from late in the period when some high clouds mainly above 25,000 feet spread northward, associated with a storm in the Atlantic Ocean. Light south/southwest winds will persist at most sites overnight, and locally strong southwesterly flow off the deck at MSS will result in LLWS throughout the overnight hours before the nocturnal jet tapers off. During the day, a period of southerly gusts approaching 20 knots at northern valley terminals (MSS, PBG, BTV) is possible before high pressure settles in and winds relax.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

MARINE

A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Broad and Northern Waters of Lake Champlain through tonight. Channeling effects are leading to minor enhancement of winds to 20 to 25 knots and waves throughout the day from 1 to 3 feet for the Broad and Northern Waters. Winds may weaken slightly to 15 to 20 knots on the Broad Water during the the afternoon today, but gusts are expected to remain near 25 knots and sustained winds are expected to increase again to 20 to 25 knots towards late this afternoon and evening, and continue through tonight.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.