textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 212 PM EDT Tuesday...

No significant changes have been made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 233 PM EDT Tuesday...

1. A weak cold front will bring some shower chances to the region tomorrow, with seasonable and mostly dry conditions prevailing through the remainder of the week.

2. Showery and cooler conditions with beneficial rain are on track for late this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 212 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Mostly dry and seasonable conditions are expected to continue across the region through the remainder of the week, with a few chances for showers possible. High temperatures will generally be in the 70s to low 80s the next several days. Another round of patchy fog will be possible tonight into tomorrow morning with high pressure overhead, but moisture will be limited which will influence how much fog develops overnight. A decaying cold front will move through the region tomorrow, bringing chances for scattered showers and possible embedded thunderstorms, particularly across northern New York. Showers and any thunderstorms that do develop look to be rather unimpactful, with limited dynamics and instability to promote any stronger thunderstorms. Shower chances may linger into the evening, especially across the higher terrain before drier conditions return to the region. Some showers cannot be entirely ruled out on Thursday as a weak area of low pressure moving across southern New England, but chances are fairly low and dry conditions are expected to prevail across most of the area, with dry and seasonable conditions continuing into Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A deep 500 millibar trough is expected to dig into the Great Lakes region Saturday night, leading to widespread showers overspreading our area into Sunday. Expect showers will tend to be orographically enhanced with this setup, but thankfully there are are no signals for noteworthy moisture or heat to advect northward, which limits potential for impactful/hazardous weather. As such, the latest 48 hour rainfall probabilities of exceeding 1.00" of rain are only in the 15 - 40% range with 2.00" probabilities below 10%. Greatest chances of the higher rainfall amounts appear primarily in the western foothills of the Adirondacks and westward into the St. Lawrence Valley. Given the aforementioned meridional winds and likely deep upper level low, would expect a fairly long duration event with at least periods of showers. Generally this system should bring plenty of cloud cover and cool air from the northwest by Monday, such that daytime temperatures will trend temporarily below normal before recovering towards midweek following the departure of the trough.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 00Z Thursday...The return of radiation fog is possible tonight around 06Z-14Z Wednesday, most likely IFR level for a couple hours at the typical sites SLK and MPV. Due to drier air mixing down this afternoon as compared to yesterday's increased moisture following the rain, the anticipated fog coverage and longevity tonight is much less than last night. There may also be more southwesterly winds just aloft during the prime fog hours tonight from return flow, and clouds are likely to be on the increase, especially across northern New York. Overall, we continue to see mixed signals on when and for how long fog is going to develop in the valleys, but expect it will be more isolated and shorter duration than last night. On Wednesday, winds will increase out of the south-southwest, resulting in channeled gusts at MSS 15-20 knots by the afternoon hours. We also expect showers to arrive from west to east across northern New York Wednesday morning, arriving at MSS by 11Z-19Z.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.