textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 225 PM EDT Saturday...

No significant changes have been made with this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 225 PM EDT Saturday...

1. Dry weather to persist into early next week, with minimal chances of light rain with a frontal passage on Monday.

2. High pressure continues through mid to late next week with little to no rain in the forecast.

DISCUSSION

As of 225 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A beautiful start to the weekend so far today with high pressure positioned over the region. The clear skies, light winds, and seasonable temperatures will continue through tonight. Expect another round of fairly heavy frost by Sunday morning, with lows in the low 20s to low 30s. Tomorrow will be a near repeat of today, though south flow will increase a bit later in the day as the ridge axis shifts east of the region. Relative humidity values will once again drop to around 30% tomorrow afternoon, and highs will be a little warmer than today, mainly in the low to mid 60s.

The south flow will continue Sunday night ahead of a cold front, helping to keep temperatures quite a bit warmer than the past couple of nights, especially in the Champlain/St Lawrence Valleys. The front will push southward out of Canada and through our area on Monday, bringing mainly increasing clouds as it does so. A few light rain showers can't be ruled out, mainly over the higher terrain in the northern mountains. However, given recent trends and the very dry antecedent airmass, expect most areas will see only sprinkles, if anything. Winds will turn to the northwest behind the front, ushering in another cool and dry airmass. We'll see a return to much cooler temperatures; Tuesday will likely only get into the 40s to low 50s in most areas after morning lows in the 20s to around 30F.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A strong area of high pressure will build in overhead early Wednesday behind our Tuesday cold front helping to extend our dry period for many. Southerly flow associated with the high will also help to rebound our temperatures into the late week with highs warming from the the low to mid 50s Wednesday to the upper 50s to mid 60s by Friday. There is another chance for a weak frontal passage late week, but it looks rather unimpressive and unable to break us from this dry pattern. Of note in the ensemblistic guidance, both the GEFS and euro ensembles show only a 30-40% chance for a cumulative inch of rain through the first week of November. While the prolonged stretch of dry weather will continue with some days of low relative humidity values next week, prevailing wind conditions look too light to note any serious fire weather concerns right now. That said, channeled southerly flow Thursday afternoon could see trends towards marginal critical winds with gusts in the forecast between 20 to 25 MPH. It is still to far out to say with any certainty, but Thursday winds will need to be monitored going forward for any fire weather concerns.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 00Z Monday...High confidence in VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through the entire TAF package. Light and mainly variable winds will continue into the overnight period before gradually turning more south to southwest after sunrise tomorrow morning. As winds turn to the south to southwest tomorrow, winds will increase in the wider valleys to around 10 knots or less for BTV/PBG/SLK. RUT may also see a typical overnight southeast drainage wind, before also turning prevailing southerly by the end of the TAF package.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

EQUIPMENT

Routine observations from KSLK ASOS are unavailable until further notice. While the site is operating, it is not able to disseminate observations normally at this time. Technicians are aware of the issue, but time of return to service is unknown.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.