textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 115 PM EST Sunday...

No significant changes were made with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 115 PM EST Sunday...

1. Seasonable and unsettled weather is expected through the first half of this week with rounds of showers.

2. Unsettled weather is expected to continue late next week into the weekend, with temperatures trending cooler this weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 115 PM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A dry afternoon is expected today as low pressure shifts eastward into the Canadian Maritimes, and high pressure over the Mississippi River Valley builds into the northeastern U.S. Seasonable temperatures currently in the mid 40s to lower 50s are expected to fall as we head into the overnight hours, dropping to the mid 30s to lower 40s by early Monday morning, which is relatively mild for this time of year. West-northwesterly winds will decrease into the overnight as well, though westerly gusts may continue at higher elevations with a modest low level jet overhead. Precipitation chances also increase again this evening and tonight as we remain under the influence of a large upper level low rotating over eastern Canada. The first shortwave it sends our way will move overhead tonight and Monday. Much like our recent round of precipitation, most of the shower activity will fall as rain, with some light snow possible across the higher terrain and portions of the Adirondacks/Northeast Kingdom, especially tonight. Any snow accumulation will be minimal below 2500 ft. Rain will be the name of the game on Monday with highs in the 40s and lower 50s again. Precipitation amounts are expected to be up to 0.20" at most, highest in the northern Greens. Winds could also be slightly breezy again Monday out of the northwest, but not overly impactful. After brief ridging Monday night and lows in the mid 20s to mid 30s, the next shortwave should strike on Tuesday, though precipitation amounts are expected to be lighter, up to 0.15" at most. Once again, Tuesday's seasonable highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s will limit much snow during the day, then overnight lows in the upper 20s and 30s could allow for some light snow at higher elevations and cold spots. Tuesday's winds will be out of the southwest and slightly breezy, but again not overly impactful. On Wednesday, we'll be drying out with highs in the 40s to mid 50s and winds out of the west-northwest again.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A period of unsettled weather looks to continue late next week into the weekend, with additional chances for precipitation expected. A lage-scale trough is expected to develop across the eastern CONUS, with a developing surface low centered over the Ohio Valley, with a strengthening secondary low expected to develop and move through the Mid-Atlantic towards the New England Coast. Temperatures look to trend colder towards the weekend, with highs only in the 30s and low 40s. Model guidance continues to struggle with the expected low track, which will greatly influence how much precipitation northern New York and Vermont can expect, as well as precipitation type. Guidance is still rather split on whether the low will be suppressed far enough south that we miss out or if it will bring widespread precipitation to the region, but trends generally support a wetter solution although there is still even more uncertainty regarding the expected precipitation type. The latest guidance supports the higher terrain seeing their first significant snowfall of the season, while valley locations may remain as all rain this weekend. With this system still several days out, model outcomes are likely to change, with details becoming clearer over the next few days.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 18Z Monday...After a morning of IFR ceilings and reduced flight conditions, all terminals have gradually been improving to MVFR and VFR, with most locations expected to have a period of VFR ceilings late this afternoon into the evening. Between 00Z and 06Z, conditions are expected to trend back towards MVFR as the next round of showers approach the region. Ceilings are expected to lower between 1500 and 2500 ft AGL for the most part, although there is some potential for even lower ceilings and possible IFR conditions at KSLK. MVFR conditions are expected to prevail through the remainder of the forecast period. Winds this afternoon have been a bit variable in direction, generally west to northwesterly, generally between 3 to 10 knots with occasional gusts in excess of 15 knots. Winds are expected to be light and variable overnight before increasing out of the northwest tomorrow morning.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Veterans Day: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SN. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance RA, Slight chance SN.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.