textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 704 AM EDT Sunday...

Frost advisory has been cancelled as temperatures rise this morning, no additional frost formation is expected.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...

1. Additional rounds of showers today and tomorrow before trending drier.

2. Patchy frost is forming and is possible again Monday night.

3. Warmer and drier period of weather is expected from Thursday through Sunday.

DISCUSSION

As of 250 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: An additional shortwave passes down from the north today, bringing another round of widespread showers. Cool temperatures aloft and diurnal heating will help create marginal instability, so a few rumbles of thunder are possible. With the convection and low freezing levels, pea-sized hail is possible from any of the stronger storms. Overall, precipitation amounts will be much lighter than with the previous event, with rainfall totals only up to a couple tenths of an inch. Temperatures aloft will also be warmer, so snow levels should be mostly above summit levels, though a few flakes cannot be completely ruled out at the summits of the High Peaks. A few isolated showers will be possible Monday afternoon, but the vast majority of the day will be dry. After that, a dry stretch and a warming trend begin.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Radiational cooling conditions have been excellent for the time of the year so far tonight, though high clouds are beginning to stream down from the north. Temperatures have dropped into the 30s in most places, except for parts of the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys. The coldest temperatures observed so far have been from the Adirondacks, Northeast Kingdom, and the rest of central/eastern Vermont where values between 31 and 36 degrees have been occurring in the colder areas. Temperatures may drop a couple more degrees, but they are quickly approaching their dew points, the high clouds are moving in, and sunrise is not too far off. Overall, patchy frost is expected in the Adirondacks and any of the colder hollows of the Green Mountain spine and points east. There is an increasing likelihood of good radiational cooling conditions setting up again Monday night, but the airmass will be slightly warmer than this one. Despite that, patchy frost will again be possible in the coldest hollows, mostly in the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom.

KEY MESSAGE 3: An upper level ridge will build into the area from Wednesday night into early Friday. Maximum temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. A weak surface front will cross the area Friday bringing chance for rain showers. Saturday and Sunday will remain pretty warm with temperatures just a few degrees cooler than Thursday and Friday. A better chance for showers will arrive Sunday with both a surface front and some decent upper level shortwave energy. This far out, there is plenty of time for things to shift a bit.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 12Z Monday...Conditions are VFR with high clouds at or above 15000 ft. Low pressure will approach from the north beyond 13-15z. Scattered showers will gradually become numerous in coverage from about 17z-02z Monday. A few embedded thunderstorms are possible, and some areas of lower visibilities and ceilings will be possible in heavier precipitation, but broadly thinking -SHRA is appropriate for now. Ceilings will fall towards 2500-5000 ft agl, and winds are expected to trend west-northwest to northwest at 5-10 knots during the daylight hours. May have some lingering lower ceilings around towards early Monday morning.

Outlook...

Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.