textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 223 AM EDT Wednesday...

No notable changes have been made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 223 AM EDT Wednesday...

1. A brief spike in temperatures is expected for Thursday, which will return closer to normal after a cold front mostly notable for the breezy conditions it will bring.

2. Dry and seasonable weather is expected over the weekend, with chances for showers returning next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 223 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Despite the dewpoint depressions, light winds, clear skies, and surface high pressure, the radiational cooling has not been very pronounced. There's still some time before high clouds and warm advection begin, but it seems we'll not fall as low as forecast. Temperatures are still plenty cool with 20s across the region. A compact vort will track northeast. Clouds will overspread the region much of the day, and there should be some signs of virga. A very dry layer from the surface-850mb will likely prevent any precipitation from reaching the ground. Forecast soundings suggest precipitation should make it to about 5000-6000 ft elevation before evaporating/sublimating away. Overall, a somewhat dreary, but not a bad weather day as temperatures climb into the 50s with light south winds.

Tonight into Thursday, those south winds will increase ahead of an incoming frontal boundary. South winds overnight will mean that the Champlain Valley and northern slopes of the Adirondacks will be warmest with low to mid 40s, while the rest of the region should still fall in and around the freezing mark. The same areas will likely also observe the strongest gusts by mid afternoon, likely ranging from 25-35 mph. Temperatures will respond with the steady south to southwest winds, and climb into the 60s, perhaps even touching 70 F. NBM probabilities range 10-50%, and the forecast expressly has 70 F for areas like Fort Covington, Mooers, and Altona, New York.

For the front, there are no significant changes. A modest frontal boundary will shift southeast. Recent dryness will make its narrow moisture feed unlikely to produce significant precipitation as synoptic support falters, and the frontal boundary stretches out. So there will be a northwest-southeast "gradient" where northern areas receive a few hundredths, and areas to the south receive little to no precipitation. More seasonable temperatures into the 50s in the day and 20s-lower 30s at night return behind the front. Postfrontal gusts will be strongest on Friday with good afternoon mixing bringing gusty northwest winds of 20-30 mph, locally to 35 mph for areas like Ellenburg, NY.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Surface high pressure will build over the region for the weekend, bringing another period of dry and seasonable weather. High temperatures will generally climb into the 50s and low 60s this weekend. Heading into next week, it looks there could be a few chances for showers towards the start of next week, although some of the latest global deterministic models suggest the dry pattern we've been in will continue into early next week. We'll have to keep and eye on trends given the large amount of uncertainty at this stage.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 06Z Thursday...VFR conditions persist throughout the forecast period at all terminals. Light to calm terrain-driven winds will continue overnight, before becoming light and more southerly across most terminals after 15Z or so this morning. Some high and mid level clouds look to gradually move into the region tonight, with ceilings expected to stay above 7000 ft AGL.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

EQUIPMENT

Routine observations from KSLK ASOS are unavailable until further notice. While the site is operating, it is not able to disseminate observations normally at this time. Technicians are aware of the issue, but time of return to service is unknown.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.