textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 155 AM EST Wednesday...

Precipitation trending slightly higher and farther north Thursday night into Friday.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 155 AM EST Wednesday...

1. Mixed precipitation possible Thursday night into Friday.

2. Rain Saturday preceded by pockets of freezing drizzle.

3. The potential for ice jams and hydrological related issues will need to be monitored early next week due to much above normal temperatures and significant snow melt.

DISCUSSION

As of 155 AM EST Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A weak system tracks northeastward toward the region late Thursday night into Friday. It will be running directly into a cold high trying to build southeast out of Canada. Right now, the center of the high looks to be too far east to keep the system to the south, but close enough to provide enough surface cold air to cause some wintry precipitation. While temperatures should rise above freezing for many areas on Thursday, cold air will begin to bleed down from the north during the day and cause a non-dirunal trend, especially for St. Lawrence and Champlain valleys, setting the stage for the wintry precipitation. The current most likely scenario is that there is a notable warm nose Thursday night that causes the precipitation to start as a mix of rain and freezing rain and sleet. The warm nose looks to erode during the event and it should eventually transition to more of a rain/snow mix by the end for most places. Unfortunately, there is still a large model spread with the precipitation type and how far north the precipitation makes it, but there is slightly more confidence that there will be some snow on the northern side of this precipitation. This precipitation from the system will be on the light side regardless.

KEY MESSAGE 2: An area of low pressure tracks over the Great Lakes and into Canada Friday night and Saturday, as a Bermuda type high remains established off the coast. This sets the stage for strong warm air and moisture advection. However, surface cold air looks to remain entrenched east of the Greens Friday night into early Saturday as the antecedent cold high remains near Atlantic Canada. A few showers look to occur during this period, and abundant low level moisture could cause some areas of mist and drizzle. These could freeze in any of the cold hollows. Increasing winds Friday night should prevent significant fog from forming, but with the warm moist air over extensive snowpack it is still possible, especially in the protected hollows. Temperatures look to rise above freezing region early Saturday and eventually reach the 50s for most areas, with a run at 60 possible in the St. Lawrence Valley. While a couple showers are possible, most of the day should be dry. The cold front comes through late in the day and in the evening, bringing a line of potentially heavy showers. From a hydro perspective, the amount of rain should not be overly high. The line should be relatively fast moving and most of the day should be dry. However, combined with warm temperatures and dew points reaching the 40s, significant snowmelt will occur, though it will be pretty short lived as temperatures drop into the 30s Saturday night.

KEY MESSAGE 3: The latest WPC forecast for our area indicates the potential for much above normal temps prevailing from Sunday through early next week, with some record high temps possible. A summer like Bermuda high pres ridge remains anchored off the SE CONUS, which results in deep and warm south/southwest flow into our cwa. Several weak boundaries wl travel along the International Border and try to suppress the warm temps at times, but overall probability of above normal temps thru early/middle of next week is >60%. GEFS and NAEFS still indicates many rivers wl experience sharp rises with a 50 to 65% probability of Mad River and Otter Creek reaching minor flood stage next week, while slightly less probability for Ausable and Missisquio. The qpf thru early next week looks light, <0.50", with most rises driven off significant snowmelt. The total thawing degree hours is in the 400 to 650 range, which does suggest enough melting for ice break up, which could lead to or increase the risk of ice jam related flooding.

The WPC forecast indicates the best potential for rain showers late on Tues into Weds associated with cold front and developing area of low pres. Still plenty of uncertainty on timing and eventual track of sfc low pres and associated thermal profiles as we head toward middle of next week. WPC's forecast for our area does show the coolest day on Sunday with highs mid 40s to lower 50s, but highs warm back up into the 50s on Monday and Tues. Based on progged 925mb temps of 8-12C by Tues, many valley locations could be in the upper 50s to mid 60s, except cooler near Lake Champlain. WPC indicates lows in the upper 20s to upper 30s for days 4 thru 7 attm.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 12Z Thursday...The latest GOES-19 Nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery shows areas of low clouds/stratus across the Adirondacks, eastern Champlain Valley and parts of the Northeast Kingdom, while some clearing is present over central VT and western CPV. Sfc obs show IFR cigs at BTV/SLK with MVFR at RUT and VFR at PBG/MSS/EFK and MPV, but with some lingering low clouds. Have used a tempo groups for a couple hours this morning to indicate IFR/MVFR, before conditions improve to VFR at all sites by 15z. VFR prevails through 06z tonight, with some lower cigs/vis possible toward sunrise on Thurs. Winds are south/southwest 4 to 8 knots, but become light from the north/northeast after midnight.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance FZRA, Chance SN, Chance PL. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SN, Slight chance FZRA. Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance RA. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance RA. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

EQUIPMENT

The KBTV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of return to service. The affected communications line is not serviced by the NWS. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue, but regular observations may not be available.

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.