textproduct: Burlington

SYNOPSIS

Gusty winds and periods of rain showers will continue into this evening; strongest winds will be late in the day into the evening, particularly in northern New York. Another widespread light snow event with some wintry mix will follow for Saturday night into Sunday, transitioning into a northwesterly upslope snowfall Sunday night. Active weather will continue into next week with temperatures near to a bit above normal.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 159 PM EST Friday...

*A Wind Advisory remains in effect for all of northern New York until 1 AM outside of the St. Lawrence Valley which will end at 10 PM, for gusts up to 55 MPH.

The main weather impact today will be the continued gusty winds areawide, with the highest gusts focused over northern New York. A 992mb surface low is currently moving northeast along eastern Ontario with widespread scattered rain associated with a warm front lifting north across the area. The region sits sandwiched between this surface low and a 1030mb high off the Massachusetts coast which is helping to drive a strong 850mb jet to 65-70kts. With falling precip, and high base clouds (we are rain and bkn070 at BTV), some of these higher gusts have been realized, particularly in northern New York where a Wind Advisory remain in effect through this evening into tonight. Higher wind gusts will be focused over the northern downslope regions of the Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley this afternoon and evening. Winds will gust up to 55 MPH across northern New York, with locally higher gusts potentially briefly reaching 60 MPH along US Route 11 near Malone and Chateaugay. Summit levels in the Adirondacks may even gust to near 70-80 MPH. Across Vermont, gusts up to 40 mph will be possible through this evening. The window of higher gusts will be quite narrow peaking along and immediately behind a cold front this afternoon, between 7 PM and 1 AM. Limitations to any High Wind Warnings will be due to lingering moisture aloft and variable breaks in cloud cover which could reduce the overall mixing and steeper lapse rates. All in all, an impactful gusty evening is in store for the area with the highest concern in northern New York where tree limbs and isolated power outages may occur. Total rainfall from these showers will not amount to much with the system exiting by midnight, with only a few tenths in the higher terrain and a few hundreths in the Champlain Valley. Temperatures will be non- diurnal this evening and overnight before the cold front arrives. Highs today may reach the mid to upper 40s, but likely wont occur until close to midnight for most areas. We will not tap into any of the cold air from the cold front tonight or much of tomorrow as it stalls to our south.

As the system exits this evening to early tonight, winds will shift to the west with pressure falls as the surface low slides north of the International Border across Quebec. As winds shift, behind a cold front, wind concerns will transition to the eastern downslope regions of the Adirondacks and Greens. Hi-res guidance suggests gusts up to 55 MPH in eastern Clinton and eastern Essex Counties, as well as up to 40 MPH in the southeastern Greens near Ludlow in Vermont. Winds will quickly lower by Saturday morning with more light and variable winds

Saturday looks to remain on the mild side as another full latitude double barreled trough approaches the region. The cold front tonight will stall to the south of the region, keeping some moisture around and keeping flow generally light with highs in the mid 30s. Skies may have some clearing breaks in the morning, but overcast skies return for the afternoon onwards. Although temperatures will be above freezing for the entire near term, low precipitation amounts and dewpoints still at or below freezing, the basin snowmelt and river ice movement potential continues to trend down for this event.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/

As of 159 PM EST Friday...

*Key Point: Widespread snow with some wintry mix is expected Saturday night, with additional snow showers on Sunday.

Our next impactful system arrives Saturday night as a double barred low pressure tracks northeast from the Ohio Valley towards the region. A mature mid latitude cyclone will begin to occlude over the Great Lakes with a triple point surface low developing over southeastern New England. Showers increase from southeast to northeast Saturday night with conditions favoring a cooler air mass overhead. The coastal low looks to become more dominant over the region, aiding in keeping a cooler easterly marine layer over at least Vermont and increasing chances of a cold air damming setup. Model soundings suggest a weaker warm nose across the region as a whole with the bulk of the energy and waa keeping to the south with the coastal low. As a result, trends have been towards a snowier and sleet based ptype than freezing rain. However, with any system track nudges, freezing rain cannot be completely ruled out for anywhere in the region. Current trends show a 60% chance for most of the region seeing at least a light glaze of ice, though model solutions look to be running warm. As such this forecast leans into more sleet and subsequently less overall snow as well. NBM probabilities of greater than 3 inches are only 20-30%, with a 60-80% of seeing 2 inches of snow, mainly across the northern Adirondacks and northeast Kingdom, where colder air should keep precipitation all snow for the most part. Further south into southern Vermont and perhaps portions of the St. Lawrence Valley, the chances for any freezing rain increase. Flow turns to the southwest during the day Sunday with the potential for a quick lake effect band to form off Lake Ontario, which may impact extreme southern St. Lawrence County in New York. Snow amounts will be light with temperature marginal into the mid 30s. The Champlain Valley likely will be shadowed between the two competing systems with just some isolated flurries and up to an inch of snow. Snow ratios will also be bifurcated with lower ratios in Vermont than New York with more of that moister marine layer in Vermont.

Precipitation will turn from the southwest to the northwest with more upslope based as both system drift east away from the region. As winds turn to the west/northwest, they will become breezy across the Adirondacks and spine of the Greens. With these westerly winds, CAPE values will increase to near 50J/kg (90th percentile near 100J/kg), as lapse rates steepen with increased mixing. This energy, coupled with better moisture from an associated cold front, could be enough to sustain isolated to scattered snow squalls across northern New York and the northern Champlain Valley Saturday afternoon and evening. With road temperatures at or above freezing for most of Sunday, with this setup, flash freeze potential will need to be considered with caa arriving quickly behind these potential squalls leading into Sunday night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 159 PM EST Friday...The active weather will continue Sunday night with breezy winds and additional snow expected across the region, especially across northern New York where some enhancement off Lake Ontario is expected. Shower activity is expected to gradually diminish throughout the day Monday as moisture wanes, but some linger terrain showers cannot be ruled out. Additional snowfall accumulations during this time period will generally be anywhere from a dusting at lower elevations to a few inches in the higher terrain. The unsettled weather pattern will continue into next week with an active upper level pattern, bringing several chances for precipitation to the region next week. There is still some uncertainty into the exact timing and details, but several systems look to push across the region, with the potential for a more impactful system mid-week. Temperatures will be on the warmer side for the start of the week, trending colder as the week progresses.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 00Z Sunday...Winds remain the primary threat to aviators with widespread LLWS as lljet and front move through the region. The good news is that speeds will be trending down behind the front in the 06-12 time frame as winds start southerly and shift northwesterly. Turbulence aside, some IFR/MVFR CIGs will also be a part of ongoing conditions until after 12Z with dry air works into the region. Winds/conditions becoming light/VFR tomorrow as flow turns north/northeasterly. Some channeled flow at MSS is expected with some NE gusts 15-20kts.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SN, Likely PL, Definite FZRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR and IFR possible. Likely SHSN, Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHSN. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.

EQUIPMENT

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ026-087. Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for NYZ027>031-034-035.