textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 310 AM EDT Saturday...

No significant changes were made with this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 310 AM EDT Saturday...

1. Snowfall is expected for portions of the mountains above 1500-2000 feet this morning, then widespread gusty winds and cold temperatures continue today before a moderating trend begins early next week.

2. The long term is very quiet with comfortable temperatures and dry conditions prevailing for the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

As of 310 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: As rainfall becomes more showery in the wake of the cold front, the northwesterly flow regime will support upslope rain and/or snow showers across the western slopes of the Adirondacks and Green Mountains. Locations above 2000 feet continue to look like the best spots for up to an inch of snow accumulation while a few flurries could be seen as low as 1500 feet. Overall impacts will be minimal and likely confined to grassy surfaces as the ground temperatures will remain above freezing this morning. Today will be quite the transition to a more winter-like pattern as temperatures struggle to climb into the upper 30s to mid 40s while winds remain gusty in the 20 to 30 mph range, especially this morning. This will lead to wind chills in the teens to mid 30s throughout the day with wind chills as low as the single digits above and below zero across the high peaks this morning. If you plan to be outdoors today, please dress and prepare for the weather as this dramatic cold and wind may be surprising to many! Tonight will be the coldest night of the week as winds finally abate and skies clear with lows falling into the upper teens and 20s. A rebound to more seasonal normal high temperatures is expected for Sunday through Tuesday as high pressure builds overhead with highs warming into the 50s and lower 60s, though nighttime lows should stay chilly in the 20s and 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Mid/upper lvl ridge prevails through mid week, before weak cold front drops south acrs our cwa on Thurs with slightly cooler temps. The mid/upper lvl ridge acrs the NE CONUS, should keep moisture associated with coastal system well south of our cwa this week, which is supported by most 00z guidance and ensemble data. The weak cold frnt on Thurs has very limited moisture with best dynamics passing well north of our cwa, so have continued a dry fcst. A brief sprinkle or light shower is possible over the trrn with this feature, but confidence and probability is too low to mention attm. Given the dry conditions, warmer temperatures and sunshine, significant drying of fine fuels, including leaf litter can be anticipated this upcoming week, but winds are expected to remain light. High temps range from the mid 50s to mid 60s, except slightly cooler Thurs/Friday with lows upper 20s to lower 40s most mornings. No impactful or significant weather is anticipated this upcoming week or into next weekend attm.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 12Z Sunday...A few scattered mountain snow showers will continue at times at SLK this morning with brief 15 to 20 minutes of IFR vis/cigs possible through 14z. Otherwise, a mix of MVFR cigs in the mountain sites of MPV/EFK and SLK will prevail until noon time, while mostly VFR at MSS/PBG/RUT and BTV with maybe brief MVFR cigs at times this morning. Breezy northwest winds 10 to 20 knots continues before becoming light under 6 knots this evening and shifting to the south/southwest by sunrise on Sunday with VFR at all sites expected.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

MARINE

A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for the broad waters and southern waters of Lake Champlain this morning. Although the strongest winds have ended, we will continue to see 15 to 25 knot winds across the lake, with gusts to 25-30 knots possible. Winds are from the north and northwest this morning and should gradually decrease throughout the day. Waves in the 3 to 5 ft range are expected this morning, subsiding to 1 to 3 feet this afternoon.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.