textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 212 AM EST Saturday...

No significant changes with periods of showers expected this weekend and into early next week.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 212 AM EST Saturday...

1. A cooler and unsettled pattern is expected this weekend with summit level snow possible Sunday morning.

2. Another round of precipitation expected for the start of the work week, with this activity more focused in the favored upslope areas of the northern mountains.

3. Remaining unsettled midweek through the end of the week, likely trending cooler by next weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 212 AM EST Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: We await the arrival of showers this morning as a closed upper low slowly pivots eastward across the central/eastern Great Lakes. Scattered to numerous showers can already be seen out ahead of this feature. This area of showers will continue to slowly drift east-northeastward as its parent low crosses into southern NY, eventually pivoting into our southern sections along a weak inverted surface trough. This band of showers will rotate over NY through this afternoon before shifting east into VT late today and overnight as the upper low spins across southern New England and eventually offshore by Sunday morning. Hence expect fairly widespread showers through the day and into tonight, then becoming more focused in the northern mountains Sunday morning as west-northwest flow develops behind the departing low pressure. Snow levels drop to 2200-3200 ft as the cold pool moves overhead, and expect some slushy snow accumulation will be possible tonight into Sunday morning, generally above 2500 ft. Precipitation will wind down Sunday afternoon, with some sunshine possible by late in the day. Overall rainfall amounts will be a quarter to a half an inch, with locally higher amounts possible in the higher terrain. Temperatures will return to somewhat seasonal normals today and especially Sunday; highs in the 50s today will give way to mid 40s to mid 50s tomorrow. Winds may be a little on the breezy side in the Champlain Valley today as north winds get funneled down the valley. Strong winds then become more widespread on Sunday, though remaining AOB 25 mph or so, with little impact expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Shortwave ridging briefly builds in behind the departing upper low, giving us a short respite from precipitation. However, another vigorous upper trough will swing along the international border Monday, with another following right in its footsteps on Tuesday. Showers will once again develop, though remaining more focused in the favored upslope areas of the northern Adirondacks/Greens as southwest winds shift to the west and eventually northwest. A reinforcing shot of cold air will see snow levels falling as low as 1500 ft early Tuesday morning, though the bulk of the precipitation will likely have ended by then, limiting potential snow accumulation. Total precipitation amounts will be a quarter of an inch or less through Monday night, with another tenth of two possible on Tuesday. Both days will see temperatures close to or just a bit above normal, generally in the mid 40s to low 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 3: The large Hudson Bay low will continue to dominate the weather across our region, bringing multiple shortwaves into the weekend. A Shortwave pushes through on Tuesday bringing valley rain showers and some chances for snow to the upper terrain locations, mainly above 3000 feet AGL. That snow level should drop overnight and give Mt. Mansfield its first chance of seeing 1" of snow, which would be the latest ever on record, breaking the record of Nov 9th set in 1956 and 1985. While things remain unsettled the rest of the week, models are keying in on significant closed low swinging down through the Mid-Atlantic region and then up the coastline, bringing several shots of rain and rain/snow mix into the weekend. This system will definitely bare closer monitoring as the week progresses.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 18Z Sunday...An unsettled pattern is expected this weekend. Current conditions at TAF sites across northern New York and Vermont include ceilings 300-1300 feet above ground level and visibilities ranging from around 1 mile in the Adirondacks to roughly 5 miles and higher elsewhere. Rain has finally arrived in the St. Lawrence Valley, where visibilities are around 4-6 miles, and this rain is poised to head into the Adirondacks next, though somewhat slowly. We anticipate these IFR-MVFR conditions will persist tonight and Sunday morning as low pressure passes overhead tonight, turning flow out of the northwest. However, for the next few hours, we could see ceilings drift upwards, breaking some IFR sites into the MVFR realm for a period before returning to IFR cigs overnight. Current surface winds are out of the north at 5-15 knots, expected to increase early Sunday morning to feature gusts 10-20 knots out of the west-northwest as any lingering rain ends. Ceilings finally look to improve around 12-16Z Sunday at many sites, becoming more widespread MVFR or higher.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA. Veterans Day: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance RA. Wednesday Night: MVFR. Slight chance RA, Slight chance SN. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance RA, Slight chance SN.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.