textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 235 AM EDT Tuesday...

No significant changes but the weekend is trending drier.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 235 AM EDT Tuesday...

1. Mostly dry and below seasonal average temperatures through Friday with a couple chances for light precipitation and very dry afternoons Thursday and Friday.

2. Trending drier for the weekend and early next week with near normal temperatures.

DISCUSSION

As of 222 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Aside from some low end shower chances tonight and some chances in northeastern Vermont Thursday with a passing backdoor front, conditions will remain dry. Locations that do receive rainfall will mainly see less than 0.05". Otherwise, notably dry conditions this afternoon with moderate with cloud cover and increasing dew points tonight. Then the long wave pattern is favored to become pinched enough aloft to allow for two backdoor fronts to move through, one on Thursday and again on Friday. These fronts will be mainly dry, especially west of the Greens. Northerly gusts 15 to 25 mph are favored both afternoons with RH in the Champlain/St Lawrence valleys approaching 30%. Some very isolated critical conditions for fire weather may occur. Temperatures will remain slightly below seasonal averages through Friday before warming back to average by Saturday. Highs will generally be in the 40s and low 50s through Friday and back into the mid/upper 50s to low 60s for Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A relatively quiet stretch of weather is expected to continue heading into the weekend and the beginning of next week. While a few showers may be possible, high pressure overhead will keep most precipitation chances to our south across southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic. Relative dry weather is expected to continue through the beginning of next week, with more widespread precipitation chances not arriving until Tuesday night or Wednesday at this time, which may be even later depending on how quickly ridging across the region breaks down. Temperatures will generally be near seasonable normals for late April, with daytime highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s and overnight lows in the 30s to mid 40s.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 00Z Thursday...VFR conditions continue to prevail across the region this evening under increasing mid/high clouds. Ceilings will continue to lower overnight, with most terminals expected to see a period of MVFR ceilings after 10Z or and so, continuing through the remainder of the forecast period. A few showers may be possible later tonight into Wednesday morning, particularly at KRUT, where a PROB30 group has been included 10z-12z. Elsewhere, confidence for shower development is low, and either way, ceilings will have the greater impact on aviation. There are some indications that ceilings at KRUT could drop below 1000 ft, but probability of this is low and so have kept ceilings MVFR. Winds S/SW through the period, except SE at KRUT. They will generally remain AOB 10 kt through the TAF period.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.