textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 728 PM EDT Wednesday...

Air Quality Alerts have been issued for northern New York and southern Vermont for tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 243 PM EDT Wednesday...

1. Wildfire smoke will continue to impact portions of northern New York and Vermont with degraded air quality at least through Thursday. An Air Quality Alert is in effect for northern New York.

2. There will be several chances for showers and thunderstorms today through this weekend with Friday being dry and temperatures generally around seasonal averages.

3. Seasonably warm temperatures and a brief dry period are expected early next week, then another round of showers and potential storms towards midweek.

DISCUSSION

As of 243 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: An Air Quality Alert is in effect for northern New York with much of the region experiencing moderate to hazardous for sensitive groups air quality levels. Those unusually sensitive to smoke may wish to limit exposure. Prevailing winds will continue to advect swaths of wildfire smoke into the region through at least Thursday. Tomorrow evenings cold front will likely shunt smoke southward giving northern New York and Vermont a reprieve from smokiest conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2: As for precipitation chances, some showers are popping up in southern Canada and will drop through Vermont and portions of northern New York this afternoon and early evening. No significant impacts are anticipated, but these showers may drag some smoke aloft to the surface which could then settle in valleys overnight resulting in localized further degradation of air quality.

The next thunderstorm chances will be Thursday along a front dropping out of Canada. There will be enough forcing to allow for a few thunderstorms with high temperatures in the 80s. However, these storms will not be as intense as last night's. The associated wave is shallower and farther east and temperatures/dewpoints will be much lower than what occurred yesterday. Still, those outdoors should have a lightning plan, especially if hiking or camping.

After a dry day on Friday, RH likely ranging 20-40% with lighter breezes, a system moving through southern Canada will bring renewed widespread shower/thunderstorm chances for most of the region. Initial QPF estimates are 0.25-0.75", but showers will linger into Sunday. Temperatures, as mentioned above, will be more pleasant heading into the weekend with highs in the mid/upper 70s to low 80s.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Precipitation chances will be decreasing on Sunday as drier air flows into northern New York and Vermont. High pressure and weak ridging will command the weather pattern Sunday night into Monday, allowing temperatures to climb back towards or slightly above seasonal averages in the 70s to mid 80s each afternoon. Nighttime temperatures will fall into the upper 40s to mid 60s. Another trough is expected to come through sometime toward midweek. Models diverge in their solutions for this Tuesday-Wednesday system, particularly in terms of timing, but most project a surface low crossing through Canada dragging a a slew of frontal boundaries through our area and returning highs to the 70s and lower 80s.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions currently prevail across all terminals. Wildfire smoke continues to impact the region, with some reductions in visibility possible, however given low confidence and uncertainty haze has been left out of the forecast for now. Smoke, last night's rain, and winds aloft could also affect fog formation tonight one way or the other. At the moment, confidence is too low to include fog, but it is possible at the favored locations. Breezy west/northwest winds will trend light and variable overnight, with KRUT developing it's typical drainage wind. Winds will once again be increasing during the day, with gusts between 20 to 30 knots expected at all terminals.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Definite SHRA, Chance TSRA. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA, Chance TSRA. Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...Air Quality Alert from 6 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for VTZ011-019>021. NY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ026>031- 034-035-087.