textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 249 AM EDT Saturday...

No major changes have been made to the forecast. Isolated to scattered showers are possible late this afternoon and evening, but coverage has decreased slightly from the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 249 AM EDT Saturday...

1. Seasonably warm temperatures are expected this weekend, with a few isolated to scattered showers possible later this afternoon into the evening.

2. Above normal temperatures are expected for the first half of the week ahead.

3. Thunderstorm chances increase late Tuesday through Wednesday as a front moves through the region.

DISCUSSION

As of 249 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A weak shortwave moving across the region will bring some isolated to scattered showers to the region late this afternoon into the evening, with northern New York more likely to see shower activity. The latest CAM guidance has decreased in the areal coverage of showers, especially across Vermont. Despite the shower chances, any precipitation would be quite light, generally less than 0.1 inches with measurable precipitation most likely across northern New York. In addition to the shower chances, breezy conditions are expected this afternoon with a developing low level jet overhead. While there is some uncertainty as to how much winds mix down to the surface, localized wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph are possible across northern New York tonight, with some breezy conditions continuing into Sunday across the region. Temperatures this weekend will be quite pleasant, with high temperatures generally warming into the 70s both Saturday and Sunday, with a few locations nearing 80. Despite the warm air temperatures, water temperatures are still quite cold so use caution if recreating this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A warming trend will continue into the first half of next week as a warm front lifts across the region on Monday. Tuesday looks to be the warmest day, with high temperatures climbing into the 80s for most locations, with 925mb temperatures around 20C to 25C. These temperatures will be the warmest of the year so far, especially after a cool start to the month, so it is important to remember to stay safe in warmer temperatures by staying hydrated and take frequent breaks if working outside. Dewpoints will also be trending upwards going into Tuesday, making it feel quite humid especially for this time of year. The warmth and humidity will result in increasing instability, which will support the development of showers and possible thunderstorms for Tuesday, which could impact how warm temperatures climb during the day Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 3: As heat and humidity build Tuesday, so will instability with a front projected to drop out of Canada. Dew points will likely range in the 50s and 60s ahead of the front with residual heating from daytime possibly continuing to trigger convection as heights fall aloft. Tuesday night into Wednesday, models continue to show a frontal passage that will likely be a focal point for convection as it tracks through the region. Timing of the front is currently during the day hours suggesting added instability associated with heating is probable. This pattern shows some potential for a few stronger variety storms with highs in excess of 80 degrees again Wednesday, but changes in frontal timing could limit or move the window of concern. So Tuesday/Wednesday will be a "keep an eye on" for now situation.

Later next week, drier conditions and more seasonable temperatures are favored to return.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 06Z Sunday...Clearing skies and ample moisture are creating conditions for nuisance fog to form. Conditions have generally been intermittent VFR/IFR in the wake of exiting cloud cover at SLK/MPV/PBG/BTV with more persistent VFR elsewhere. Some 20kt winds 500ft AGL are likely interfering with radiational cooling keeping conditions more mixed at the terminals that are in and out of IFR conditions. This will continue through at least 08Z with potential for a breakout to VFR at BTV/PBG and more pervasive IFR or lower at MPV/SLK. Fog clears at daybreak with mostly clear skies through much of the day hours. After 22Z, some shower chances return with a weak trough tracking through the region.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.