textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 204 PM EST Tuesday...

No significant changes made.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 204 PM EST Tuesday...

1. Near record high temperatures are expected on Wednesday with mostly sunny conditions and some localized fire weather concerns.

2. A weak cold front will produce scattered showers on Thursday, but precipitation amounts will be light with highest amounts in the mountains.

3. Repeated chances for showers this weekend and early next week with temperatures gradually decreasing towards seasonal levels.

DISCUSSION

As of 204 PM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Sfc analysis shows a warm frnt draped along the International Border this aftn with some scattered rain showers acrs northern NY into central/northern VT. Rainfall amounts have been <0.10" thru 2 PM. Warm frnt wl lift north of cwa this evening with latest RAP ua showing building mid/upper lvl ridge over the Ohio Valley into western PA. GOES-19 mid lvl water vapor imagery indicates well defined dry slot with strong subsidence, which is progged to be acrs our fa on Weds, resulting in partly to mostly sunny skies. This combined with progged 925mb temps btwn 15-18C with south/southwest downslope flow wl support highs upper 60s to mid 70s with a few warmer valleys reaching the upper 70s possible. The localized fire weather concerns would be acrs the Champlain Valley and northern slopes of the Dacks, where gusts of 15 to 20 mph and minimal humidity values will drop btwn 35 and 45%. Elsewhere, winds will be lighter east of the Green and humidities slightly higher.

A very warm night is anticipated on Weds night, with southerly flow and increasing clouds ahead of our approaching cold frnt. Based on sounding analysis feel some deeper/protected valleys east of the Greens may decouple, resulting in localized cooler spots and supporting a wide range in temps. Similar type idea is anticipated in the valleys of the dacks too. Lows generally in the upper 30s to mid/upper 50s, warmest in the CPV and downslope areas of the northern Dacks near Malone. 925mb winds increase 25-35 knots overnight with some localized gusts in the trrn up to 40 mph possible. Still some uncertainty on mixing profiles over the cooler Lake Champlain waters on Weds night into Thurs for the potential need of a lake wind advisory. Sounding data at CLCR is very stable in the bl over the cooler lake waters, resulting in minimal mixing of stronger winds to the sfc.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Mid/upper lvl trof wl be weakening acrs the Midwest/western Great Lakes on Thurs, while pre-frontal trof and associated narrow axis of 700-500mb moisture moves from west to east acrs our cwa. Given the dampening upper lvl dynamics and out of phased energy, feel this precip on Thurs wl be another high pops/low qpf event. In addition, developing southwest flow of 35 to 45 knots wl produce localized downslope shadowing acrs the CPV, which is highlighted nicely in the latest GFS precip fields. Pw values with deep southwest flow surge btwn 1.0 to 1.4" ahead of dampening trof on Thurs, which are 3 to 4 STD above normal, so thinking everybody should at least measure precip. QPF amounts wl range from a few hundredths to a quarter inch over the dacks/parts of the SLV. Progged 925mb temps btwn 14-12C with more clouds support highs upper 50s to mid/upper 60s depending upon elevation. Thursday night into Friday is relatively quiet with slowly cooling thermal profiles, supporting highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s on Friday, which is 5 to 10 degrees above normal for early Nov. The cooler weather, higher humidities and some precipitation wl help mitigating the fire wx concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Multi-level closed low pressure over the Great Lakes and surface low pressure driving northward along the Northeast Coast this weekend will bring increased chances for precipitation, about 45-75% in Vermont and 25-55% across northern New York Friday night. Nighttime temperatures will remain well above seasonal normals with projected lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s with plenty of cloud cover around. Chances for precipitation decrease on Saturday as surface forcing pulls northeastward away from the area, but rain shower chances still remain around 35-65% throughout the day as upper level troughing stalls overhead. Temperatures will continue to be warmer than normal values, but should feel cool compared to the week's record warmth. Highs Saturday are expected to be only in the 50s and lower 60s. Upper low pressure will head away from the region Saturday night, lowering precip chances on Saturday night, and to follow Sunday daytime chances decrease further in brief weak ridging. Low temperatures during this period are expected to fall each night, from the 30s and lower 40s Saturday night down to the 20s and lower 30s early next week, which could mean snow mixing in with the rain at higher elevations and colder spots. Highs will also follow a decreasing trend, though more gradual, with temperatures hitting the mid 40s and 50s each afternoon through early next week and shower chances each day under cyclonic flow.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 18Z Wednesday...Light rain showers continue this afternoon and evening, primarily north of site KRUT. VFR will prevail throughout much of the TAF period, although ceilings are expected to lower over the next few hours, resulting in some sites seeing MVFR level cigs and visibilities in showers. Showers will wind down by roughly 00Z-04Z Wednesday. Widespread VFR conditions anticipated to return around 00Z-08Z Wednesday. Breezes will be southerly and southwesterly tonight and tomorrow and are expected to increase, gusting 15-20 knots in the Champlain Valley by 00Z Wednesday. A low level jet out of the southwest and west 30-35 knots is likely to cause some LLWS at the New York sites around 22Z Tuesday onwards.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Chance RA. Friday Night: MVFR. Chance RA. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA. Saturday Night: MVFR. Chance RA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance RA.

CLIMATE

Temperatures could approach record highs on November 4th, with the greatest chance of surpassing the record at KMSS.

Site | Record | Forecast KMSS | 71 (2022) | 75 KBTV | 73 (1982) | 74 KPBG | 72 (1990) | 73 KMPV | 72 (2022) | 73

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.