textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 109 PM EST Thursday...

Due to an increase in expected winds tonight and decrease in expected low temperatures tonight, an Extreme Cold Warning has been issued for the northern Adirondacks, and the Cold Weather Advisory was expanded the Champlain Valley. The time frame for these products was also extended, now 7 PM this evening through 11 AM Friday.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 109 PM EST Thursday...

1. Periodic snow showers are possible this afternoon through Friday night, which may cause lowered visibilities and could produce a few tenths of an inch of snow accumulation.

2. Dangerously cold wind chills of 15 to 40 degrees below zero are expected tonight through Friday morning. Limit outdoor exposure to prevent frostbite and ensure vulnerable populations have adequate heat.

3. Cold and relatively quiet weather is expected across the region late this weekend into the beginning of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 109 PM EST Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Favorable convergence can be observed in the Champlain Valley as surface low pressure moves across Maine and upper level low pressure stretched across Ontario. Sufficient moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere are saturating the snow growth zone on and off this afternoon. Blocked flow is anticipated to continue into the evening, indicating snow showers will favor the eastern Champlain Valley and western slopes of mountains, mainly the Greens.

Snow will be generally light this afternoon, oftentimes more flurry than snow shower. Friday, Weak milder air and moisture (aloft) advection along with an upper level shortwave return the potential of snow showers, mainly in higher terrain. In the wider valleys, the surface looks too dry for much to develop with dew points remaining below zero. Total snow amounts through Friday night will be only a dusting to a few tenths of an inch, except in the northern Greens, where they could see an inch or two at higher elevations. Saturday and Saturday night, widespread dry conditions are expected as high pressure noses into the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Temperatures early this afternoon have only reached the teens for most, with some spots still in the single digits. These temperatures run about 10-15 degrees below seasonal averages for late January as a reinforcing shot of cold air moves into the region this afternoon on northwesterly flow. Cold air advection should continue through tonight for most places as the currently stationary boundary shifts southeast, which should keep the boundary layer coupled and moderate northwesterly wind around.

Temperatures are expected to fall into the negative teens across portions of northern New York outside of the Champlain Valley as well as portions of the Greens and Northeast Kingdom. Elsewhere, negative single digits are anticipated by Friday morning. Breezy winds and cold temperatures will likely result in wind chills 15 to 40 below zero with most intensely cold apparent temperatures (30 to 40 below zero) forecast for the northern Adirondacks in New York and north to the international border where we have upgraded the Cold Weather Advisory to an Extreme Cold Warning. Outside of this region, the Cold Weather Advisory has been expanded to include the Champlain Valley due to increased winds and decreased temperatures based on latest guidance.

Our Cold Weather Advisory ends late Friday morning, but conditions remain cold after that with highs in the single digits above zero and wind chills in the negative single digits and negative teens. Friday night and Saturday night look cold with lows 0 to -15 F, a good 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal averages. Portions of northern New York may need another Cold Weather Advisory for Friday night with wind chills potentially as low as 5 to 20 below zero. Saturday's highs will be slightly milder than previous days in the teens, but still well below normal.

KEY MESSAGE 3: In general, a relative cold and quiet weather pattern is expected across the region late this weekend into next week. The coastal low expected to develop this weekend continues to trend further south and out to sea, with no impacts expected across Vermont and northern New York at this time. Otherwise, cold and mostly dry weather is expected for the first portion of next week, with a few snow showers possible across the high terrain. High temperatures for Monday and Tuesday look to climb into the teens and 20s, which is closer to climatological normals for this time of year compared to the recent temperatures, although it is still a few degrees below normal. Surface high pressure building over the region will allow for drier conditions to prevail. A frontal boundary looks to push through towards mid-week, but there is still a lot of uncertainty right now regarding those features given the time range.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 00Z Saturday...A mix of VFR/MVFR expected over the next 24 hours. MVFR most favored at KSLK/KEFK/KMPV where occasional light snow showers/flurries possible through mid morning Friday. Winds generally west to northwesterly from 6-12 kts through the period, occasionally gusty to 15-18 kts this evening through 06Z or so.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

EQUIPMENT

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for VTZ001>011- 016>021. NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for NYZ026>028- 035-087. Extreme Cold Warning until 11 AM EST Friday for NYZ029>031-034.