textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 239 AM EDT Tuesday...

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 239 AM EDT Tuesday...

1. Drier weather is expected for much of this week, along with a warming trend.

2. Warm and possibly showery conditions possible for the weekend, with a return to dry weather into next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 239 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: High pressure will settle across the region today, leading to a stint of drier weather for a good part of the week. Temperatures will exhibit a gradual warming trend; while today's highs will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s with a bit of a north breeze, Thursday will feature highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s with west to southwest winds. Can't totally rule out a few spots hit 90F on Thursday, particularly on the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks due to downsloping of the SW winds. Luckily dewpoints will remain comfortable in the 40s and 50s, so nights will be pleasantly cool and the afternoons won't be oppressively humid.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Upper level ridging is expected to slowly break down and become shunted southward heading into the weekend. Chances for showers return by late Friday into the weekend as several weak disturbances attempt to dig into the ridge from the north. The timing and uncertainty of how much the ridge breaks down between the global models remains fairly large. An upper trough looks to ride along the northern periphery of the ridge across our region heading into the weekend, with an area of cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes Sunday. Trends have favored a southward jog of the Great Lakes energy which would lead us to have fewer shower chances, though it is too early to tell this far out. Should any showers coincide with day time heating, a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out, though confidence in any thunder this far out remain low at this time. Regardless of the precipitation chances, temperatures this weekend will cool to more seasonable levels with highs in the mid to upper 70s to near 80, with comfortable humidity levels as dewpoints look to be in the upper 40s to low 50s. Into early next week, large scale ridging looks to build in from the northwest with ensembles favoring a return to dry and warm conditions.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 06Z Wednesday...All sites should see mostly prevailing VFR through the next 6 hours, with high confidence for prevailing VFR conditions beyond 12Z. Tonight will be drier than last night, however, model soundings and evident river fog development near Springfield, VT have continued to support possible fog at SLK/MPV. Do not anticipate prevailing fog, but rather patchy fog possibly between 07-10Z, with reductions mainly to 3SM given subtle flow aloft and antecedent drier conditions based on current dewpoint depressions. There is also a chance for some 4-6SM BR at MSS due to light flow near the St. Lawrence. Should any fog develop, it will quickly dissipate with sunrise around 10-11Z due to increasing mixing and winds beyond sunrise. North to northwest winds will increase towards 5-10 knots with gusts 16 to 20 knots through 22-23Z. Winds will subside after sunset today trending calm. Dry conditions will persist throughout today with some fair weather cumulus around 6000 to 9000 ft agl.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.