textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 124 PM EST Sunday...

Confidence has increased slightly in light rain showers Tuesday and Tuesday night. Confidence also continues to increase in warm temperatures on Wednesday, and highs across the St. Lawrence Valley of New York are expected to reach or surpass daily records.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 124 PM EST Sunday...

1. Temperatures increase this week, and there is the potential for some rain showers Tuesday and Tuesday night.

2. A late week cold front will bring several days of rain

DISCUSSION

As of 124 PM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: High 1034 mb pressure centered over the Northeast this afternoon will shift southeastward over to the mid Atlantic coast, drifting offshore over the next few days. This will turn flow more southerly to southwesterly across northern New York and Vermont, resulting in above average temperatures this week. Highs Monday and Tuesday afternoons will be widespread 60s. Lows fall only into the 40s tonight and Monday night. A tilted mid to upper level ridge will be positioned to our west through about Tuesday, moving eastwards this week. Depending on the positioning of an upper level vort max and surface boundaries, there could be just enough forcing and lift to produce some clouds and light rain, mainly along the international border and on high terrain on Tuesday and Tuesday night. The odd rain shower is possible Monday night in the Northeast Kingdom, but generally best convergence is north of the border at this time. Deterministic model solutions continue to vary widely on the position of these features, so uncertainty remains relatively high, even on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Highest chance of some measurable precipitation looks to be Tuesday afternoon and evening with 35-55% chance of rain for about the northern half of the forecast area, lower chances south. Regardless, temperatures continue to look warm for this time of year heading into mid and late week with highs likely reaching the upper 60s and lower 70s by Wednesday afternoon as southerly to southwesterly winds advect in even more warmth and 925 mb level temps climb to 11-16 C. Lows are expected to fall into the mid 40s to mid 50s Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Confidence continues to increase that a relatively strong low pressure and associated cold front will sweep through northern New York and Vermont by the end of the week. A closed low will be over the Upper Great Lakes by Wednesday. While timing is still a bit uncertain, we should see channeled flow keeping winds over Lake Champlain gusting to near 30mph on Thursday with rain overtaking the CWA on Friday ahead of the low. As the cold front sweeps through, we'll see high temperatures drop from the upper 60s Thursday down to the upper 40s by Saturday. A number of model solutions have the system interacting with another low off the Atlantic Seaboard, causing the low to partially cutoff from the main flow and allowing a slight chance of rain to persist through next Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 00Z Tuesday...VFR conditions will prevail through the entire TAF period. Mid-level clouds increase overnight tonight, especially in northern areas, as a weak disturbance rides just north of the international border. Ceilings to remain AOA 5000 ft. Light S/SW winds overnight (except SE at RUT) will increase back to 6-12 kt after 15z Mon. A weak LLJ will bring marginal LLWS to BTV/PBG/EFK 04z-15z.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely RA. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA.

CLIMATE

Temperatures could approach record highs on November 4th, with the greatest chance of surpassing the record at KMSS.

Site | Record | Forecast KMSS | 71 (2022) | 72 KBTV | 73 (1982) | 70

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.