textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 251 AM EDT Friday...

No significant changes have been made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 251 AM EDT Friday...

1. Dry weather will continue throughout today, with rainfall affecting portions of the area this weekend as a Nor'easter moves along the coast.

2. Drier and warmer weather will start next week, with additional shower chances towards mid week.

DISCUSSION

As of 251 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: High pressure will continue to remain across the region today, bringing another day of tranquil weather after any early morning fog dissipates. High temperatures this afternoon will warm into the upper 60s to low 70s, with some increasing high clouds expected as the day progresses ahead of the next approaching system, limiting any fog or frost concerns for tonight.

A Nor'easter will continue to track along the coast, bringing heavy rainfall and strong winds to portions of the mid-Atlantic and New England. Our region will be on the periphery of the system, with the greatest impacts expected outside of our area. The better chances for precipitation will be further south, although there is still some uncertainty as the to the overall extent of showers Saturday into Sunday. In addition to the precipitation chances, a strong jet associated with the system will bring gusty surface winds, especially across the higher terrain and the western slopes. Temperatures will be on the cooler side as well, especially Sunday as clouds and periods of showers are expected, especially across southern and eastern Vermont.

KEY MESSAGE 2: As the system slowly shifts eastward, shower chances will linger into the start of next week, gradually diminishing towards Tuesday. A frontal boundary looks to move through towards mid-week, bringing some additional chances for showers to the region, although there is still plenty of uncertainty at this time with a wide spread amongst models towards that time frame. Temperatures will be on the cooler side to start the week, generally in the 60s areawide, gradually warming a few degrees towards the middle of the week with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Lingering showers and cloud cover will prevent overnight temperatures from radiating out, with temperatures most likely dropping into the 40s and 50s.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 12Z Saturday...Widespread fog and low ceilings this morning continue to bring IFR or lower conditions to most terminals this morning. These conditions are expected to quickly improve over the next few hours after sunrise as fog dissipates across the region, generally between 12Z and 14Z. For the remainder of the forecast period, VFR conditions are expected to prevail, with some increasing high clouds expected as the afternoon progresses. Winds will generally be northerly and less than 10 knots throughout the day today, becoming light and terrain driven this evening, although a few stronger gusts at KRUT cannot be ruled out this afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.