textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 245 PM EDT Friday...

Trending drier for this weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 245 PM EDT Friday...

1. The nor'easter attempts to gain entry into the region this weekend and for the start of next week, but the strongest impacts will remain over southern New England.

2. Dry and Seasonably Warm next week

DISCUSSION

As of 245 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: High pressure will remain centered over Quebec heading through tomorrow, keeping the weather mostly dry. Increasing low- level flow will help keep the boundary layer a bit coupled tonight and prevent much fog or frost formation. A few showers are possible over southern Vermont late tomorrow, while central and northern areas will remain dry with only some high clouds. The nor'easter will remain centered off the Mid-Atlantic Coast heading through Saturday night and Sunday. Its stationary position will help moisture wrap around to the west, and multiple bands of rain will move across southern Vermont and attempt to make their way north. However, they will be displaced far from the center of the low and will be heading into very dry air so by the time they reach northern areas, they will mostly fall apart. Therefore, while southern Vermont will see multiple rounds of showers, northern areas will only see a few sprinkles and mostly dry weather. As the system occludes and a trough pushes in closer from the northwest on Monday and Tuesday, the nor'easter will reenter the background flow and get pulled northeast and out of the region. As it moves north, multiple rounds of showers are possible even in northern areas Monday into Monday night.

Some gusty winds will occur late Saturday into Sunday as the low- level jet moves overhead, particularly in southern Vermont. It should have winds in the 35-50 KT at around summit level, and 30-40 KT looks to be under the inversion level. This will likely cause increased gusts along the western slopes due to downsloping, but even if conditions become very favorable, the strength of the low- level jet will limit gusts. Therefore, gusts in the 30-40 mph range are possible along the western slopes of the southern Greens.

KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure moves in Tuesday as our nor'easter moves out to sea. We'll have a warming trend through Thursday, with temperatures reaching into the mid-70s in the Champlain Valley. A cold front will come through later in the day Thursday bringing some rain and dropping our temperatures back into the 60s for most locations.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 00Z Sunday...Conditions are VFR with north winds decreasing or becoming variable with some competing terrain influence. Fog will not be widespread, tonight. Increasing near surface flow and high clouds at should preclude activity. Some guidance indicates fog development in the St. Lawrence Valley, which will have lower cloud cover, but reaching crossover temperatures may be brief, and flow just off the surface leads me to feel skeptical. Otherwise, the main change will come from increasing winds 13z-18z with a gradual increase to north or northeast winds of 8 to 13 knots sustained with 18 to 23 knot gusts likely. Conditions for LLWS and lowering ceilings will approach KRUT about 21z.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Likely RA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.