textproduct: Burlington

SYNOPSIS

Scattered light snow showers will continue this morning and wind down this afternoon. By mid-week, a warming trend will begin, with temperatures above freezing expected for Wednesday and Thursday. A stronger system will bring gusty winds and widespread rainfall late Thursday, with colder air returning on Friday behind a cold front.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 206 AM EST Tuesday...Shower activity will die down through the day today, with a mainly dry and quieter day expected with moderating temperatures. Maximum temperatures this afternoon will range through the 20s. Winds will become breezy tonight into Wednesday, especially in the Champlain valley and the higher summits of the Adirondacks and Greens. Minimum temperatures tonight will dip into the mid teens to lower 20s, warmest along Lake Champlain. A weak system will approach our area for Wednesday, with the center of the low passing well north of our area across eastern Canada. At the precipitation onset Wednesday morning we could see some mixed precipitation, but as the lower levels saturate temperatures will cool enough for mainly just light snow on Wednesday. Best chances for showers will be along the international border, and also in the higher elevations of the northern Dacks and northern Greens. High temperatures on Wednesday will warm into the lower 30s to upper 30s and a changeover to rain will be expected in the warmer valleys.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 206 AM EST Tuesday...Showers will come to an end Wednesday night, then we'll have increasing southerly flow headed into Thursday ahead of next approaching system. Temperatures will also be quite warm on Thursday with strong warm air advection and winds gusting, highs will reach the mid 30s to lower 40s. A strong low level jet will move overhead, and in response winds at the surface will be quite strong and gusty. Precipitation should hold off until Thursday night as it moves into the area from the west.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 206 AM EST Tuesday...An impactful system with gusty winds, rain, and snow is still on track for Friday into Saturday. A strong low pressure system will pass over the Great Lakes and move north of the International Border early Friday. A robust 850mb south to north jet will aid in both moisture and waa leading to deep layer moisture over the region. In tandem, following a warm frontal passage mid- week, 850mb temperatures will surge to nearly +5C which will draw surface temperatures above freezing for even our highest peaks. Daytime Highs up to the mid to upper 30s in the higher terrain, and near 40 to the mid 40s elsewhere is increasingly likely. As such, as the system moves into the region, while precipitation may start as snow in the higher terrain, most locations will start and see all rain through the majority of the event. As rain falls on the colder snow pack, patchy fog from snow melt will be possible, especially with dew points rising above freezing. How widespread and thick the fog becomes will be determined by the overall rainfall rates and gusts present. Pwats will be nearing 1 inch, ushered along the moisture axis which looks most pronounced over the Champlain Valley and the Greens. Rainfall rates could be moderate to heavy at times, especially Friday afternoon. With the abnormally warmer air, comes gusty winds to help mix out the strong temperature gradient that will accompany the system. The 850mb jet will increase flow aloft to nearly 60kts at 3000ft. Summit level gusts could see those jet gusts realized. However, with precipitation ongoing, how much of those stronger gusts will be mixed down to the valley floors still remains uncertain. Current forecast shows periodic gusts to 30-40 MPH. The final wrinkle in the forecast will be how much snow melt occurs and what that looks like for our rivers. It's still a little too early to talk any kind of specific rain or snow amounts, but do anticipate at least some modest river rises due to runoff from both rain and snowmelt. Would not be surprised to see some rivers reach bankfull with the rain and added snowmelt. Whether it will be enough to flush out any of the river ice that has formed already this season is likewise still uncertain. However, what we have going for us, is that the recent freezing of any ice has been short lived with generally more shallow ice than heart of winter thicker ice, which bodes well for movement on the rivers. There could also be a bit of freezing rain at the onset of precipitation, particularly in eastern VT where cold air may be tougher to scour out. Once the system shifts more to the northeast, a cold front will help tank temperatures back into the teens and single digits by late Friday night. Rain will quickly change over to snow in northern New York by Friday afternoon, and in Vermont by Friday evening. A flash freeze could be possible over roads Friday night that are still wet from rain and snow melt.

Winds and any heavier snow could also impact utilities. So please stay tuned as this event draws closer, as we'll continue to refine the forecast as the details become more clear.

Brief high pressure will build in for Saturday with upslope favored areas seeing continued snow showers. Another weak clipper system will pass through the region Saturday afternoon with mainly snow as thermal profiles favor below freezing temperatures. More prolonged high pressure returns for the start of next week with dry and cold conditions expected.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 12Z Wednesday...Main impacts this morning will be associated with a transient weakening lake effect band in the northern Adirondacks and a passing weak trough that is currently over the Greens. Ceilings will generally trend towards 5000-7000ft this morning behind the trough at sites outside of SLK. VFR at all sites should prevail through much of the day at sites outside of SLK/EFK/MSS. The lake effect band will weaken and rise north into the Adirondacks early this afternoon with lowering ceilings toward 2500-3000ft and a brief snow shower between 17-20Z. Some flurries could be possible at BTV as Froude numbers will be below 0.5 between 17-20Z, though vsbys should remain above 6SM. Used PROB30 groups as shower activity confidence is relatively low. As the band dissipates by 20Z, ceilings at most terminals will rise to scattered to broken 10000ft agl. Continued brief reductions in and out of MVFR at MSS will persist towards 00Z. Winds will increase from the south beyond 00Z with gusts reaching 20-25 kts with channeled flow, particularly at MSS/PBG/BTV. Prevailing MVFR ceilings will arrive at MSS by the end of this TAF period.

Outlook...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN, Chance FZRA, Slight chance RA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN. Thursday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Definite RA. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Definite RA, Likely SN, Chance SHSN. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SN. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SN.

EQUIPMENT

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

Equipment malfunctions at the Colchester Reef meteorological station will likely leave it inoperable for an extended period of time. This site is not serviced by the NWS. Technicians do not currently have an estimated return to service for this station. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain, and please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.