textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 209 AM EDT Thursday...

No significant changes have been made with this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 209 AM EDT Thursday...

1. Dry and seasonable weather will continue through the weekend.

2. Quiet and dry weather is expected to continue into early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 209 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Another seasonal day is on tap today with highs in the mid 50s this afternoon. A cold front will bring another shot of below normal temperatures to the region tonight through Saturday with temperatures moderating a bit on Sunday. Gusty north winds will be seen behind the cold front this evening with gusts in the 20-30 mph range. The strongest gusts will be across the Champlain Valley and generally occur between 6 PM and midnight. We will likely see a few hours of 25 kt sustained winds on Lake Champlain this evening and may need to issue a Lake Wind Advisory with the afternoon forecast package. Otherwise, a strong 1034 mb surface high pressure system will settle into the region this weekend with continued dry weather and clear skies expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Our continued dry spell does not look to let up even into next week. Ridging will continue well into early next week with generally high confidence in dry and seasonable conditions by Monday and Tuesday. As the center of the ridge axis shifts slightly east late Sunday into Monday, southwest flow will keep temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s areawide, with some locations in southeastern Vermont pushing the mid 60s. A moisture starved cold front will move through late Monday into Monday night, and while a brief sprinkle in the mountains may be possible, most areas will remain dry. Given how dominating our dry our antecedent conditions will be by Monday, a strong front will be needed to dislodge our dry air and overcome the surface low relative humidities. This front will not be that case, and most precipitation, should any occur, likely will be virga. While precipitation will be lacking, temperatures will cool slightly behind the front with cooler north winds lowering high temperatures Tuesday to the upper 40s to low 50s. While a prolonged stretch of dry weather will continue with some days of low relative humidity values, winds look to be too light to note any serious fire weather concerns right now.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 06Z Friday...High confidence in VFR conditions through the entire TAF period for all terminals outside of MSS. Again, some brief sunrise fog is noted with a TEMPO group at MSS between 11-13Z with about a 40% chance for IFR visibilities driven by fog. Given the detachment from any rain, and little fog last night areawide, confidence in any fog at other terminals is low, with MSS driven mainly by persistence forecasting. Beyond 13Z, a weak frontal boundary will pass through generally between 15-17Z as light and variable winds turn prevailing from the north. As the front moves through, increasing clouds will lower scattered cigs towards 3000-4000ft agl. Winds will increase slightly behind the front through the rest of the day with north winds around 10 knots across Vermont, and occasional gusts between 15-20 knots. In northern New York, any gusts should remain below 15 knots. Winds weaken after 00Z towards light and terrain driven.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.