textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 252 AM EDT Saturday...

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 252 AM EDT Saturday...

1. Dry weather continues through the beginning of next week.

2. Unsettled conditions are expected with daily shower chances starting Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

As of 252 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: An omega type block remains in place into the start of next week, leading to a consistent stretch of weather. The ridging will remain over the region, so dry and sunny weather will generally prevail. Relative humidity values should drop into the 25 to 35 percent range for most areas during the afternoons, but lighter winds will lessen fire weather concerns. Peak gusts will generally be around and under 10 mph over the weekend except St. Lawrence Valley where gusts up to 20 mph are possible due to channeling. A very dry layer will persist above the boundary layer into early next week and efficient mixing could cause dew points to be slightly lower than forecast on any given day, though lower guidance was already blended into the forecast. Winds will increase a bit on Tuesday, leading to the potential for near critical fire weather conditions. Any fire weather concerns aside, this stretch will feature great spring weather to get outside. While temperatures will drop to around and below freezing most nights, they will rise rapidly into the 50s and 60s during the days with abundant sunshine.

KEY MESSAGE 2: An upper level low is projected to linger over the Northeast next mid to late week promoting daily shower chances. 850mb temperatures are expected to be near 32 degrees while surface temperatures are favored WPC highlights one trough moving through with likely chances, but keeps showers more scattered Thursday into the weekend. It's feasible that there will be additional periods of numerous showers considering highs in the 50s to near 60 degrees. Should cloud cover break, the higher sun angle of April/beginning of May sun angle would promote increased instability by steepening low level lapse rates and allow showers to proliferate across northern New York and Vermont. Current PWAT projections of less than 1" don't favor a complete washout, but detailed amounts are unclear this far out. Considering synoptic forcing, ensemble forecast probabilities are leaning towards amounts less than 0.5" Wednesday through Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 06Z Sunday...Persistent VFR will continue through the forecast period. Winds will generally remain light and be more terrain driven in absence of a stronger pressure gradient. The exception could be MSS with channeling out of the northeast could bump some afternoon gusts to 15-20kts briefly.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: MVFR. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.