textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 239 AM EDT Saturday...

No significant changes were made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 239 AM EDT Saturday...

1. After cool and breezy conditions today, temperatures warm Sunday as a cold front brings more rain and gusty winds to northern New York and Vermont.

2. Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected next week, along with several chances for precipitation.

DISCUSSION

As of 239 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Last night's cold front has exited the region with a few trailing showers possible this morning mainly in northeastern Vermont and along higher terrain of the Greens. We'll be noticeably cooler with breezy northwesterly flow developing. Highs will top out in the 40s for most locations and around 50 degrees fore portions of southern Vermont. Models show low level wind gusts generally ranging 15 to 25 mph, but a few spots could reach 30 mph this afternoon.

Flow shifts southerly ahead of the next system projected to move into the region Sunday into Monday. The biggest challenge with this system will be related to wind speeds. A strong 60-80kt 850mb jet continues to be projected with this system supporting gusty conditions, especially for northern New York along the northern flanks of the Adirondacks down along the Highway 11 corridor and the northern Champlain Valley. Wind signatures are as strong as those of a couple of weeks ago when surface gusts exceeded 50 mph at times. However, these winds are coincident with precipitation which should dampen the winds some. Ensemble mean gusts for these typical trouble spots are currently 30-35 mph with an atypical narrow spread in terms of standard deviation supporting an upper bound of 40 mph within one standard deviation of the mean winds. Forecaster experience suggests that there will be periods where wind gusts exceed 40 mph. Best estimates at this time are for more consistent gusts of 30 to 40 mph with potential for sporadic gusts up to 50 mph mainly in the 6AM to 12PM time frame Monday when precipitation loading weakens. Most other locations outside of the typically windier spots should see gusts in the 20-25 mph range. Otherwise, there is a decent slug of moisture accompanying this system with higher amounts favored towards the Canadian border and terrain of Adirondacks/northern Greens. Some spots in these areas may exceed 0.67" while most other locations south will see 0.2-0.4" while southern Vermont is lower favored to be in the 0.1-0.2" range. A few spots in the highest elevations of the northern Greens may approach 1" of rainfall.

KEY MESSAGE 2: The large scale pattern for next week continues to support zonal flow aloft across our region, bringing a few continued chances for showers throughout next week. A low level boundary looks to remain situated near the International Border, which will have a large influence on temperatures and precipitation for the middle of next week. The current temperature forecast continues to support unseasonably warm temperatures for the middle of the week, with daytime high temperatures climbing into the 70s Wednesday and Thursday, with a few locations nearing 80F. The NBM does currently show a widespread in temperature guidance given the uncertainty regarding the aforementioned boundary and any precipitation, with the 75th percentile showing 78F and the 25th percentile showing 65F for the high temperature here at BTV on Wednesday. While there will be several chances for precipitation, it looks to be quite showery and scattered in nature. Wednesday afternoon looks to have the greatest probability of any thunder given surface heating and moisture. As always, there is low confidence is the exact timing of any of these features at this time range, so trends will need to be monitored as we get closer.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 12Z Sunday...A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions continue across the region this morning, with all terminals expected to trend towards VFR later this morning as high pressure builds into the region. Once all terminals improve, VFR conditions are expected to continue throughout the TAF period. Winds continue to be north/northwesterly, with some increasing gusts between 15 to 25 knots throughout the afternoon. Winds look to trend more light and variable after 00Z.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

EQUIPMENT

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.