textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 244 AM EDT Sunday...

Critical fire weather conditions increasingly likely Tuesday

KEY MESSAGES

As of 244 AM EDT Sunday...

1. Dry weather continues through Tuesday with critical fire weather conditions possible Tuesday.

2. Cool and unsettled conditions are expected with daily shower chances through the end of this week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 244 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: An omega block remains in place for the next couple days, leading to consistent weather. The ridging will remain over the region, so dry and sunny weather will generally prevail through Tuesday. Relative humidity values should drop into the 20 to 40 percent range for most areas during the afternoons, but lighter winds will lessen fire weather concerns. Peak gusts will generally be around and under 10 mph through Monday. A very dry layer will persist above the boundary layer and efficient mixing could cause dew points to be slightly lower than forecast on any given day, though lower guidance was already blended into the forecast. Winds will increase notably on Tuesday, with southerly gusts between 20 to 35 mph possible. The winds, combined with the low relative humidity, are causing critical fire weather conditions to become increasingly likely. Fire weather concerns aside, this stretch will feature great spring weather to get outside. Temperatures will rise into the 60s and low 70s during the days with abundant sunshine.

KEY MESSAGE 2: An upper level low is projected to linger over the Northeast next mid to late week promoting daily shower chances as troughs rotate around. Cloud cover and cooler temperatures aloft will help keep high temperatures running below seasonal averages generally in the low/mid 50s. Highest precipitation chances will occur Wednesday into Thursday with the primary trough moving into the Northeast ahead of the upper level circulation. Models are shifting on QPF with likelihood of >0.50" becoming more likely. Many locations are favoring 0.25-0.5" with southern locations starting to seeing more potential in the 0.5-1" range. Model forcing has increased with projections showing increased moisture transport off the Atlantic northwestward over Vermont/northern New York. Chances become more scattered by Friday into the weekend with the cold core of the low moving overhead. Lapse rates will steepen with potential for snow showers on mountain peaks. Should cloud cover break, surface instability could increase enough to allow for more numerous shower chances.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 12Z Monday...Persistent VFR at most terminals will continue through the forecast period with the region under high pressure. The exception is MSS where some fog has formed near the airfield. By 12Z, fog/mist will likely be dispersed on the airfield, but remain in the vicinity until 13Z. Winds will generally remain light and be more terrain driven in absence of a stronger pressure gradient. Afternoon northerly winds will be 4 to 9kts.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. Thursday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.