textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 218 PM EDT Friday...

No significant changes were made with this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 218 PM EDT Friday...

1. Dry conditions will continue through the beginning of next week.

2. Dry, warm, and windy weather is likely on Tuesday ahead of widespread rainfall late Tuesday night into Wednesday, kicking off a showery period through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

As of 218 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: High pressure will continue to build across Vermont and the North Country through the weekend into the beginning of next week. Some gusty north winds are being observed as we are on the boundary from departing low pressure and building high pressure which has increased the pressure gradient across the region. As the high builds further south, the pressure gradient will relax and lead to much lighter winds for the upcoming weekend. With clear skies and light winds once again expected tonight, we expect temperatures to drop into the lower 20s to lower 30s with the coldest temperatures expected across the Northeast Kingdom and northern Adirondacks. A warming trend will be observed this weekend into Monday with temperatures a good 2 to 5 degrees warmer with each subsequent day. In terms of fire weather concerns, slightly higher mix RH values are expected across the region this weekend with min RH vales generally in the 30-40% range with a few pockets a little lower than 30%. With the lighter winds expected this weekend, we don't foresee any fire weather concerns but still advise everyone to follow any burn bans in place (like New York) and follow the advise of local fire wardens.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Monday night will feature upper level ridging and surface high pressure building out of Quebec and the Canadian maritimes, resulting in seasonable or just below seasonable temperatures and mainly clear skies. Depending on how much clearing we get, temperatures may fall lower than forecast, particularly in the cold hollows of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom. Then on Tuesday, a low pressure system will cross the Great Lakes, increasing southerly flow and pushing temperatures above seasonable normals, particularly on the northern slopes of the Adirondacks with highs approaching the 70s for broader valleys. As a Rex Block type of pattern sets up with dry air at the surface, precipitation with this system is likely to hold off until at least Tuesday night, perhaps even Wednesday. All of that together, we anticipate some fire weather concerns on Tuesday with RHs bottoming out near critical levels while gusty southerly winds occur. Once rain does arrive, models differ on how much rain to expect and how long rain lingers through the week. The deterministic GFS wants to keep rain showers around through the end of the week with lingering multi- level low pressure while the ECMWF is slow to push the rain through, but eventually we see high pressure and a break from showers return by the end of the week. Most model blends sit the precip amount around 0.10" in 24 hours Wednesday through Wednesday night. The late April/early May sun angle will support surface temperatures in the 50s and 60s.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 00Z Sunday...VFR conditions will prevail through the entire TAF period. SCT-BKN ceilings around 6000 ft will dissipate early this evening, leaving SKC overnight. Mid/high clouds start to increase from the west after 12z, but ceilings remaining AOA 15 kft. Light and variable winds overnight, mainly terrain-influenced, becoming N/NW 5-10 kt after 14z Sat.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.