textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 728 PM EDT Saturday...

Watching the clouds and their make up, it seems some of the cloud cover is more likely to miss far northeastern Vermont. Temperatures were slightly reduced in the Northeast Kingdom, and Essex County, Vermont has been added into a Frost Advisory in effect for tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 229 PM EDT Saturday...

1. Unseasonably cool temperatures continue through the weekend, with areas of patchy frost possible tonight.

2. Another round of showers is expected tomorrow afternoon into the evening, with more scattered showers possible on Monday.

3. A warming trend is expected for the latter half of next week, with temperatures warming into the 80s by Friday,

DISCUSSION

As of 229 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: After a rainy start to the day, drier conditions and partly sunny skies prevail across the region this afternoon. Despite the sunshine, high temperatures will only reach the upper 50s and lower 60s, nearly 10 degrees or so below climatological normals for the end of May. This unseasonably cool airmass will allow for cold overnight lows, with temperatures dipping into the 30s and 40s areawide. Although the night will start out relatively clear, cloud cover moving into the region overnight will help limit the overall frost potential, but areas of patchy frost will be possible, especially in portions of the Adirondacks and eastern Vermont. In addition to the frost, some fog development may be possible as well given the recent rainfall. Temperatures tomorrow look to be a few degrees warmer, with highs generally in the 60s areawide.

KEY MESSAGE 2: After a brief break in the precipitation, another shortwave is expected to move through the region later in the day tomorrow, bringing another round of showers. Compared to the most recent precipitation, lighter rainfall amounts are expected with most locations receiving anywhere from a few hundredths of an inch to a quarter of an inch of liquid. As we head into the beginning of the week, additional shower chances will be possible throughout the day on Monday, driven by steep lapse rates and diurnal heating rather than a clear shortwave or boundary. Any precipitation with these showers would be rather light given the scattered nature. Temperatures will continue to be seasonable cool on Monday as well with possible showers and clouds, with highs once again in the 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Ridging will take hold for a good part of late next week, keeping us warm and dry. Low pressure will develop off the Carolina coast Wednesday and trek northeastward through the end of the week. At this time, any impacts from this system will remain well to our southeast as the track will stay offshore. However, precipitation chances will increase later Friday into the weekend as yet another upper trough will swing down across eastern Canada and into northern New England. Should this pattern hold, it would likely be accompanied by a cold frontal passage and showers/possible thunderstorms. Until then though, mild and dry weather is expected under the aforementioned high pressure. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 70s areawide, then warming into the upper 70s to mid 80s by Friday. Luckily dewpoints look to remain relatively comfortable in the 40s and 50s, so humidity won't be too oppressive.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 00Z Monday...Conditions are VFR with localized cumulus around 6000 ft and high clouds at or above 15000 ft. Winds will trend light and variable, and with southeast drainage flow over KRUT during the night. About 04z-06z, scattered high clouds will begin moving from north to south over the region. Low pressure will approach from the north beyond 13-15z. Scattered showers will gradually become numerous in coverage from about 17z-02z Monday. A few embedded thunderstorms could take place, and some areas of lower visibilities and ceilings will be possible in heavier precipitation, but broadly thinking the note of -SHRA is appropriate for now. Ceilings will fall towards 2500-5000 ft agl, and winds are expected to trend west-northwest to northwest at 5-10 knots during the daylight hours.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...Frost Advisory until 7 AM EDT Sunday for VTZ004. NY...None.