textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 234 PM EDT Sunday...

No significant changes to the forecast. Forecast is on track for light snowfall in higher elevations tonight and Monday night. The temperatures have trended slightly colder for the brief midweek cold spell.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 234 PM EDT Sunday...

1. Several waves of light snow are expected tonight through Tuesday, though accumulations will remain mainly limited to higher terrain.

2. Temperatures will lower to below seasonable normals through Wednesday.

3. Above normal temperatures the second half of the week with widespread showers possible Friday and Saturday.

DISCUSSION

As of 234 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Widely scattered light showers will linger over higher elevations today, especially over the northern Adirondacks where low- level moisture will be locally enhanced compared to areas further east. These showers will briefly blossom overnight as a shortwave comes through, though they will remain predominantly anchored to higher terrain. Temperatures will fall to below freezing over higher elevations by around midnight...supporting snow as the predominant precipitation type overnight. The depth of available moisture overnight will be limited to the low-levels, which will limit total snowfall to generally under an inch for the higher terrain of northern VT and northern NY. The exception will be the northwestern slopes of the Adirondacks along with the higher peaks of the Adirondacks and northern Greens, where 1-3 inches is forecast. After the Sunday night/Monday morning light snow, the remainder of Monday will trend dry.

The next chance for snow showers will come Monday night into Tuesday, though model spread on timing this second wave of light snow is notably greater than the first wave. This translates to a lower certainty on when and where we will see accumulations from this second snowfall. Probabilistic guidance from the National Blend of Models (NBM) highlights the Adirondacks and central Vermont as the areas most likely to see 1-2 inches of snow Monday night into Tuesday. Higher probabilities of seeing over 2 inches of snow in this time frame are restricted to the southern Adirondacks (mainly south of our forecast area of responsibility) and the highest elevations of the central Greens (mainly in the vicinity of eastern Addison County).

KEY MESSAGE 2: Cold air advection will swing the temperature pendulum back to below normal for the first half of the work week. The coldest period will be Monday night through Tuesday night. For Monday night's temperatures, have stayed close to the NBM for most areas, but trended temperatures over higher elevations slightly lower. This yields forecast lows in the 20s for most of the area, except locally into the teens over higher elevations of the northern Adirondacks and the Greens. Tuesday will only see highs in the upper 20s to low 30s, which is a good 15 to 20 degrees below normal. The coldest night will be Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, when high pressure will crest overhead and radiational cooling will be maximized. Have trended lows slightly lower than the NBM during this period, yielding forecast lows between 10 and 20 degrees. After Wednesday morning, we begin a warming trend to close out the week.

KEY MESSAGE 3: High pressure will transit to our east Thursday and Friday, allowing temperatures to rise into the upper 50s or lower 60s Thursday into Friday. On Friday, a low pressure system begins to pass well to our north, allowing temperatures to remain above normal for the weekend. A line of showers associated with the frontal boundary will impact some portion of northern New York and Vermont Friday or Saturday. We're still seeing significant model differences regarding the extent and timing of this precipitation. Guidance shows anywhere from a glancing blow from a narrower band of precip to a more widespread and lasting event. Some of the latest guidance also suggests a more stationary front that allows for repeated bouts of showery weather throughout the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 00Z Tuesday...Cyclonic curvature and a trough swinging through tonight will keep some shower chances around, mainly over terrain in the Adirondacks and in northeastern Vermont. With westerly flow direction, PBG will be largely shadowed while a trough/upslope showers may occur at BTV. Best chances of IFR will be at SLK 03-07Z, but can't completely rule out CIG/VIS reductions to IFR in the 00-03Z should a shower move directly over the terminal. Showers taper down by 12Z becoming more scarce through the day and limited to terrain allowing for VFR to become widespread. Winds will be west generally through the night becoming northwest late in the period. Gusts 15-25kts are expected mainly outside periods of showers.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHSN. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance RA. Friday: VFR. Chance RA.

EQUIPMENT

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.