textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 246 PM EDT Monday...

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 246 PM EDT Monday...

1. Mostly Dry and seasonable into Wednesday.

2. More widespread precipitation arrives late Wednesday into Wednesday night.

3. Another gorgeous weekend on tap.

DISCUSSION

As of 246 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Ridging will become more established and dominate the synoptic pattern going into Wednesday, continuing the quiet and relatively seasonable stretch. A dying cold front will come through tonight and early tomorrow morning and bring a few light showers, but weak forcing and dry low levels will minimize the impacts. Overall, highs will be in the 70s and lows will be in the 40s and 50s with low humidity.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A more dynamic fall-like synoptic pattern is beginning to become established. On Wednesday into Thursday, a deepening low will move east from northern Ontario and into northern Quebec, with ensemble guidance indicating it will likely drop to around 985 mb by the time it reaches Atlantic Canada. The center of the low will pass by well to the north and the best dynamics should miss the region. While warm air advection will occur Tuesday and Wednesday and bring a more humid airmass into the region, there will not be enough time for a fully tropical airmass to become established. Therefore, this will limit instability as the system passes by. The highest instability will be across the St. Lawrence Valley where the warm airmass has the most time to become established. Dew points there should briefly reach the mid 60s to around 70 and a few rumbles of thunder are possible there. Rain arrives for late Wednesday in northern areas as a warm front pushes through, though it appears to lack much elevated instability so the rain should just be stratiform. A strong southwesterly low-level jet will reach the 40- 50 KT range at 850 mb, causing downsloping in the typical spots like the Champlain Valley, limiting rainfall totals. It will also lead to widespread gusts in the 20-30 mph range, with locally higher gusts. The cold front passes through Wednesday night, but the warm sector never looks to become fully established in the region, so most convection should remain to the southwest. St. Lawrence County and southern Vermont look to be the places that may see more convective enhancement, while the rest of the region should mostly see synoptically forced rain. Overall expected totals range in the 0.25 to 0.5 inch range for most places, with some higher totals locally across northern New York.

KEY MESSAGE 3: High pressure will dominate the weekend. The potency of cold air doesn't seem quite as strong as a couple days ago, but Friday will likely only reach the mid 60s and lower 70s. Then, with the very dry air in place, temperatures are likely to take a nose dive Friday night. There may be a little return flow that gets started over northern New York, but otherwise unimpeded radiational cooling should bring temperatures into the 40s with a handful of mid/upper 30s in cold hollows except near Lake Champlain or the St. Lawrence River where some lower 50s are more likely.

High pressure will amble offshore as the weekend progresses. Temperatures will steadily climb to seasonal norms on Saturday, and then above normal on Sunday as a stretched out cold front approaches. The frontal boundary may not push very far given minimal forcing and a stronger system developing over the northern Plains next Sunday. So there doesn't seem to be much in the way of widespread rain Sunday evening into next Monday when that front will approach.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 00Z Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the next 6 to 10 hours at all TAF sites as mid level clouds and increasing wind fields prevent fog development overnight. A weak cold front dropping toward the International Border by sunrise will lower the CIGS toward MVFR conditions at EFK/SLK and BTV with some brief intervals of IFR CIGS possible at EFK/SLK between 10-14z on Tuesday. Any lowering CIGS should trend back to VFR by noon on Tuesday with north to northwest winds 4 to 8 knots.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.