textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 216 AM EDT Monday...

No significant changes have been made with this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 216 AM EDT Monday...

1. A cold front will bring a roller coaster of temperatures to the region through Thursday.

2. Some light rain will be possible late Thursday as a frontal boundary moves through the region, with mostly dry and seasonably warm weather prevail late this week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 216 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front will bring light rain showers to portions of northern New York and the higher terrain of Vermont this morning and early this afternoon. Model soundings continue to show a plethora of dry air in the low levels which will likely inhibit much, if not all, rainfall from making it into the deeper valleys. Still, any location that does receive rain today will see well under a tenth of an inch and will only be for a brief period of time. High pressure will quickly build across the region Tuesday with strong cold air advection leading to noticeably cooler temperatures on Tuesday. For example, we will see temperatures warm into the mid 50s to mid 60s today but see temperatures struggle to warm into the mid to upper 40s on Tuesday. Several locations in Vermont have the potential to see record lows Wednesday morning as temperatures fall into the mid teens to lower 20s. This cool down will be short-lived as warm advection will begin on Wednesday and will allow for temperatures to moderate back into the lower 60s by Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: With the exception of a few chances for showers Thursday night, mostly dry and seasonably warm weather is expected for late this week into the weekend. Another weak cold front looks to move through the region late Thursday, with the potential for some light rain showers, particularly across northern portions of the forecast area. Heading into the weekend, drier weather looks to prevail, especially for Saturday. Temperatures later this week into the weekend look to be seasonably warm, with daytime high temperatures climbing into the mid 50s and lower 60s and overnight lows falling into the 30s and 40s.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR conditions continue to prevail across the region, and will continue throughout most of the forecast period. A weak system will move through the region later this morning, bringing increasing cloud and a possible stray shower or two to northern New York. Ceilings will generally remain VFR, but could trend MVFR towards 15Z to 18Z or so as the front moves through the region. The best chances for MVFR ceilings and any showers will be at KMSS, but confidence is low given the dry conditions so PROB30 groups were utilized. After 18Z or so, all terminals will trend back to VFR and are expected to remain that way for the remainder of the forecast period. Winds tonight will general be light and terrain influences, increasing out of the south/southwest towards morning. Behind the front, winds look to shift to become more northwesterly.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

EQUIPMENT

Routine observations from KSLK ASOS are unavailable until further notice. While the site is operating, it is not able to disseminate observations normally at this time. Technicians are aware of the issue, but time of return to service is unknown.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.