textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 257 AM EDT Monday...

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 257 AM EDT Monday...

1. Dry through today then showers and some thunderstorms Tuesday into Wednesday.

2. Near normal temperatures expected for the second half of the week into the weekend. No significant weather anticipated at this time.

DISCUSSION

As of 257 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: The dry and seasonable stretch continues through tonight. Highs will be in the 70s to low 80s and lows will be in the 50s and low 60s. An occluding low will track well to the north Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing several rounds of showers. The showers look to begin during the day Tuesday and continue into Wednesday afternoon. Right now, the severe threat is relatively low. There does not look to be a well-defined boundary, instead several rounds of showers with plenty of clouds look to move through. There is very little time for solar heating and instability to form, and the airmass will be relatively cool to start with. With the low tracking well to the north, the best synoptic forcing will be well to the north, though there will be adequate wind shear. Overall, the region is in an SPC marginal risk which seems representative. While an isolated strong to severe storm is possible, that looks to be the extent of it. The system does not look to provide much of a flooding threat either. GEFS/EPS/CMCE combined ensemble probabilities of receiving more than an inch of rain are between 10-30 percent. While there will be areas of convective enhancement, the storms will be quick-moving and there will be gaps between the showers. PWATs should rise into the 1.5-1.75 inch range but with the expected setup, that should not pose too much of a problem. While limited wildfire smoke may return for Tuesday, its concentration will be significantly less than on Saturday and it will likely not have much of an effect on the convection.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Thursday night through Sunday will feature quieter weather as we close out the week. Upper level trough will pull away from the region and then surface high pressure will ridge over our region Thursday night. A low pressure system passes well to our north Friday into Friday night, our region should not have any precipitation associated with this system. The weekend looks mainly dry with near normal temperatures. Next chance for precipitation will be Sunday night into Monday night as a frontal system and upper level trough crosses the region.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 06Z Tuesday...VFR conditions and light winds are expected to prevail through the forecast period. Mainly clear skies are also expected.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA, Chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.