textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 307 AM EDT Sunday...

Rivers rises have been less high than expected, and that trend should continue into the day today.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 307 AM EDT Sunday...

1. Lingering showers exit this morning.

2. Gusty winds today and tomorrow.

3. Localized ice jam and open water flooding possible this week.

4. After a stretch of spring-like weather, more widespread precipitation is expected to arrive for the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 307 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A couple rounds of showers will move through during the rest of the night and early this morning. These should be relatively quick moving and on the lighter side, so only 0.1-0.2 inches are expected in the areas that receive the most rain. By mid morning, dry conditions will prevail. After the showers move out, skies should gradually clear and it should be sunny for most areas by late afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A tight pressure gradient will remain through tomorrow, causing continued windy conditions. Peak gusts today will generally be between 15-25 mph, though gusts up to 35 mph are expected across northern New York. A southwesterly low level jet passes through tomorrow, with the peak magnitude over northern New York. Gusts in the 35-45 mph range are possible in the St. Lawrence Valley due to channeling, while they should generally be between 20-35 mph elsewhere. There could be a couple isolated power outages Monday in the areas that see the strongest winds.

KEY MESSAGE 3: As expected, little ice break up occurred on major rivers today and no ice jams were observed. Less rainfall than expected and colder temperatures across Vermont caused rivers to stay a bit lower than forecast, and that trend should continue into the day today. However, sustained warm weather into Wednesday, though thankfully without any additional precipitation, is expected to cause more widespread ice breakup to start to occur, and there is the potential for a few ice jams to form. Associated ice jam flooding is possible. While localized field flooding is possible through Tuesday, significant flooding is not expected due to a lack of precipitation accompanying the snowmelt. The next chance for river flooding comes Wednesday into Thursday. However, the details are uncertain due to uncertainty in storm track. There will be a sharp temperature gradient situated across the region, so a northerly track would lead to warm rain and significant snowmelt, and a southerly track would lead to mixed precipitation and little snowmelt. In the former scenario, minor to moderate flooding would be possible, mostly in the typical spots on the Otter Creek, and on the Mad, Ausable and Winooski Rivers. A southerly storm track would lead to mixed precipitation and little flooding. In either scenario, widespread major flooding is not expected.

KEY MESSAGE 4: A low pressure system centered over the Great Lakes will track northeastward towards the middle of next week, bringing widespread precipitation chances to the region Wednesday into Thursday. There is still a lot of uncertainty in regards to precipitation type at this point, both due to temperatures and low track. The current forecast supports mostly rain, with a brief transition to snow during the day Thursday as a cold front pushes across the region, although there is some guidance that supports the possibility of a wintry mix and some freezing rain. At this point uncertainties still exist, as small differences in thermal profiles and surface temperature can play a large role in the precipitation type, but is something to monitor over the next few days as we get closer. After the cold front Thursday, temperatures for the end of the week look to trend closer to seasonal normals for early March, with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 06Z Monday...Gusts in the 20 kt range continue out of the south. Another area of rain is pushing across northern New York, briefly lowering visibilities and ceilings as it moves through. Low level wind shear remains prevalent as winds at 2000 ft agl range between 45-55 knots out of the southwest. Ceilings will lower and KSLK could observe some 700-1000 ft agl cloud bases ahead of the incoming front. The main axis of the front will shift east about 10z-16z. It will correspond with a trend to southwest winds, a decrease in LLWS, and one last round of light rain showers. However, after 16z, improving conditions are expected for all terminals. Winds will remain elevated, towards 7-13 knots sustained with gusts 16-21 knots, locally increasing towards 30 knots at KMSS about 22z Sunday.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA. Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite RA. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite RA. Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA, Chance SN.

CLIMATE

3/7 High Temperature Massena (MSS) Record High: 60|1973 - Broken 61

EQUIPMENT

The KBTV ASOS has suffered a communications failure. The issue has been diagnosed, but there is currently no estimated time of return to service. The affected communications line is not serviced by the NWS. Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts will continue, but regular observations may not be available.

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.