textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 223 AM EDT Tuesday...

No notable changes have been made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 223 AM EDT Tuesday...

1. Cold weather for today will be followed by gradually warming conditions ahead of a weak front with light rain late Thursday into Friday.

2. Dry and seasonable weather is expected over the weekend, with increased chances for showers early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 223 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Another cool day is expected as a seasonably chilly air mass remains overhead. Temperatures will linger in the 40s for most, with a few 50s in the Upper Valley. The air mass is also dry, and mountain summits will feel especially crisp with dewpoints in the single digits in Fahrenheit heading below 0. Closer to the ground, another day with relative humidity values ranging in the 30s, locally down into the upper 20 percent range, is expected. Fortunately, winds stay relatively light in the afternoon, but a few gusts to 15 mph are possible across Vermont. Dry air will result in a chilly night in the teens to mid 20s tonight. The only thing preventing prime radiational cooling will be some incoming high clouds in northern New York. Nevertheless, a few climate sites will be in striking distance of record lows.

High pressure will amble offshore Wednesday, and more seasonable temperatures are expected. A passing mid-level trough will slide east, and with it will be some increasing clouds. Low-level conditions will be much too dry for any precipitation to approach the surface. Surface relative humidity values will be about the same with light winds switching to the south midday.

Forecast weather for Thursday will be warmer with high temperatures climbing into the 60s, but that will come with the price of increasing south to southwesterly gusts west of the Greens into northern New York of 20-30 mph. This will signal an incoming cold front, approaching the St. Lawrence Valley by Thursday evening. The tongue of moisture along the front is fairly narrow, and the synoptic forcing is not anything noteworthy, but they should be enough to produce light rain. It will be in the process of decay, though. So it is likely to produce more precipitation across northern areas than in south-central Vermont. Mainly a few hundredths up to a tenth is expected, mainly along northwest slopes of the northern Greens/northern Adirondacks and along the international border. A few showers will linger across northern mountains Friday afternoon, but trending dry gain into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2: In the wake of a frontal boundary moving through the region late this week, high pressure looks to build over the region for the weekend, bringing another period of dry and seasonable weather. High temperatures will generally climb into the 50s and low 60s this weekend. Heading into the start of next week, there looks to be increasing chance for showers and an end to our dry weather pattern, although there is still a lot of uncertainty amongst models and the overall pattern evolution at this time.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 00Z Wednesday...Frontal passage has occurred with some clouds lingering behind the boundary. This has manifested as some spotty MVFR conditions, but most terminals will remain VFR as dry air sweeps in by 02Z. Winds will be out of the northwest with a few gusts to around 15kts or so through 06Z before the gradient relaxes. NW to N flow will remain through the day with skies becoming clear.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

CLIMATE

A couple daily record lows are possible for October 28th. Below is the current record and the current forecast as of 230 AM.

October 28: KMPV: 20/1974 - Forecast 19 KPBG: 21/1999 - Forecast 23

EQUIPMENT

Routine observations from KSLK ASOS are unavailable until further notice. While the site is operating, it is not able to disseminate observations normally at this time. Technicians are aware of the issue, but time of return to service is unknown.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.