textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 302 AM EDT Tuesday...

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 302 AM EDT Tuesday...

1. Gusty winds today.

2. Seasonable temperatures and mostly dry mid-week

3. Below normal temperatures with scattered showers expected late week into the upcoming weekend, but probability of significant or highly impactful weather is very low at this time.

DISCUSSION

As of 302 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A southwesterly low-level jet moves into the region this afternoon and evening, bringing gusty winds. Efficient mixing up to around 800 mb will allow most of it to mix to the surface. While most places should only see gusts between 20 and 30 mph, locally stronger winds are expected in the St. Lawrence Valley due to channeling and the peak of the jet being located farther north. There, gusts in the 30 to 45 mph range are expected. Localized downsloping in parts of the far northern Adirondacks could also lead to similar gusts. The strongest winds will be in the afternoon and early evening before mixing becomes less efficient as the sun goes down. Temperatures today will also be quite warm, reaching the 80s for most places.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front passes down from the north on Wednesday. While it will cause a drop in temperatures, it will come through mostly dry. While a shower or two cannot be completely ruled out, weak forcing will struggle to initiate any activity and dry air in the low levels will help prevent anything that does form from reaching the ground. The air aloft will continue to cool going into Thursday and a few diurnal showers are possible, mostly across northern areas and higher elevations. Low humidity in the low levels will again help cause virga, but there should be enough instability to produce strong enough showers to allow some rain to reach the ground. Overall, the coverage should remain isolated to scattered.

KEY MESSAGE 3: A highly amplified pattern is anticipated over the CONUS late week into the upcoming weekend, unfortunately we are progged to remain mostly in troughiness. This wl result in unsettled wx with a higher probability of below normal temps, as ridge remains acrs the central Plains. Most guidance is in excellent agreement with a small compact closed 7-5h circulation moving directly overhead late Friday into Saturday associated with northern jet. Given orientation over n- central Canada this system wl have limited moisture, but good dynamics and cold core, supporting instability type showers late Friday into Saturday. Progged 850mb temps near 0C, would support snow lvls near 4000 ft, especially around 12z Sat when the core of the coldest air is directly overhead. A cold and raw day with occasional showers is likely on Saturday, given position of system, northerly flow, and progged moisture fields. Highs generally 40s mountains to mid/upper 50s valleys. Additional showers are likely on Sunday associated with deep northerly upslope flow and embedded s/w energy. Highest probs wl be acrs the northern Dacks and central/northern Greens with temps only in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Some warmer and drier wx returns by early next week, as ridge slowly builds eastward.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 12Z Wednesday...Early morning GOES-19 satellite imagery shows low clouds and fog quickly dissipating across the deeper valleys of central/northern VT this morning, which should have no impacts on our taf sites. VFR conditions are expected for the next 12 to 24 hours with increasing south to southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts 15 to 30 knots depending upon taf site. These winds will cause areas of wind shear and turbulence, especially near trrn and toward sunset when mixing heights decrease.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. Likely SHRA. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.