textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 228 AM EDT Thursday...

Relatively few changes were made to the forecast this cycle.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 228 AM EDT Thursday...

1. Next round of rain on the way, and Vermont and far northeastern New York will be the focus today into tomorrow.

2. Warm and dry weekend weather is expected.

3. Above normal temperatures are expected for the start of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 228 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Our two-part rain event is underway. The initial warm front and convection along the developing occlusion dropped about 0.33-0.67" over northern New York while areas east received about 0.10". The gap between the two has been somewhat larger than expected, with little to no activity over the last few hours. A vort max is rounding the southern base of an upper level low, and moisture is lifting northward in a favorable upper level environment. The strip of rain is rather narrow, but it should expand as it moves towards the area of greater upper diffluence over our area and then gets extra help from a little daytime heating along the periphery of training showers. Vermont will be the main focus today, though areas east of the Adirondacks will have favorable east to southeast flow that will produce some orographic lift. About 0.10" or less is expected in the St. Lawrence Valley, around 0.25-0.67" for the Adirondacks, and 0.67-1.33" from eastern slopes into Vermont with some variability for terrain effects. With recent dryness, this will be beneficial precipitation.

Precipitation will taper off during the day on Friday as the system shifts east. Some pop up showers are not out of the question Friday afternoon as skies gradually clear. Cool temperatures aloft, a north- south jet on the western hemisphere of the upper low, and about 200 J/kg of CAPE could allow for a spot shower or two, mainly over northern mountains where orographic lift can help with the marginal forcing.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Once the upper low is out, a positive tilt ridge will quickly expand northeast. Southwest flow will advect warmer air into the region. 925mb temps increase towards 15 C, and so lower to upper 70s are forecast. Pressure gradients become somewhat compacted. So 20 to 25 mph gusts during Saturday afternoon are expected. Relative humidity values become 30-40 percent, but the recent rain should preclude fire weather concerns.

Saturday night into Sunday, a trough will shift southeastwards. The bulk of dynamical forcing will be north of the region. A shower or two could take place, but limited convergence or instability should keep activity isolated most likely and scattered at most. Somewhat cooler air will filter in off northwest flow Sunday afternoon along the international border keeping temperatures closer to 70, while southern Vermont will still be embedded in a warmer air mass with upper 70s to near 80.

KEY MESSAGE 3: A warming trend will continue into the first half of next week as ridging builds into the region. Tuesday looks to be the warmest day, with high temperatures climbing into the 80s for most locations, with 925mb temperatures around 22C to 25C. These temperatures will be the warmest of the year so far, so it is important to remember to stay safe in warmer temperatures by staying hydrated and take frequent breaks if working outside. Overnight lows look to be above normal as well, generally in the upper 40s and 50s, warming to almost 60 for Tuesday night. A few chances for precipitation look to be possible early next week as a shortwave moves through the region, which may impact how high temperatures climb on Tuesday. A more robust frontal boundary look to move through the region for mid-week, bring increased chances of showers and thunderstorms.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 06Z Friday...Variable flight conditions currently prevail across the region, ranging from IFR to VFR, as shower activity continues. Conditions are expected to deteriorate over the next several hours as low pressure stalls over the region, with lowering ceilings and ongoing rain showers, with most terminals trending towards low MVFR or even IFR conditions. The greatest confidence of IFR development is at KMPV/KSLK/KPBG given this set up, but intervals of IFR will be possible at any terminals given the abundant moisture. These conditions are expected to continue through most of the forecast period, with little improvement expected. Winds will continue to be southerly at the start of the forecast period, shifting to become more northerly this morning into the afternoon. LLWS will be possible, especially at terminals across eastern Vermont.

Outlook...

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.