textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 236 PM EDT Monday...

No significant changes were made with this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 236 PM EDT Monday...

1. Light snow showers to continue this afternoon with additional showers expected on Tuesday.

2. Dry and warmer conditions expected mid-week with gusty winds developing on Thursday.

3. Seesawing weather conditions over the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 236 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Snow showers have been a little more stubborn today than initially thought with scattered to numerous snow showers currently ongoing. Model soundings are showing a few J/kg of CAPE coinciding with a saturated DGZ which has helped maximize snowfall processes. With the lack of moisture, we haven't seen much in terms of accumulation but a dusting here or there through the remainder of the afternoon/evening cannot be ruled out. Even as temperatures warm into the upper 30s to lower 40s, dewpoints will remain low enough to support snow rather than rain with temperatures falling whenever a snow shower passes over. A shortwave trough embedded within the cyclonic flow will act as a focus for additional snow showers on Tuesday. Moisture will be severely lacking however, which will limit overall accumulation to less than an inch for most locations but some locations across the Adirondacks and higher elevations of the Green Mountains could see 1-2 inches of snowfall. Cold advection aloft will limit daytime heating with temperatures struggling to warm above freezing tomorrow which is a bit unusual for the first full week of April.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Surface high pressure is expected to be centered across the North Country by sunrise on Wednesday which will allow for clearing skies and noticeably warmer temperatures compared to those on Tuesday. In addition to warming temperatures, much drier air is expected to move into the region which will allow afternoon RH values to drop below 30%. Winds will remain light, however, as we remain underneath the influence of the high pressure system. This will change on Thursday as the high translates to the east and gradient winds begin to increase as a result. Moisture will begin to advect into North New York as the high shifts east but this moisture won't move into Vermont until Thursday night. Minimum RH values will once again drop below 30% for much, if not all, of Vermont Thursday afternoon with winds in he 15 to 25 mph range. These conditions will create elevated fire concerns as these dry and windy conditions will allow for any fires that start to rapidly develop and spread.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Warming weather conditions are expected to continue heading towards the weekend. A cold front will attempt to shift east, but dry air will continue to round a stubborn high in the Canadian Maritimes. Ultimately, the front will likely wash out along the international border. However, higher dewpoints will remain in place. Continued south flow will result in afternoon temperatures climbing in the 60s on Friday. Clouds will be in the increasing Friday evening, and by Friday night, a more substantial cold front will pass southeast while low pressure ejects northeast up through Quebec City. Moisture along the frontal boundary will be thinning as it crosses overnight, and so widespread, but fairly light rain seems the most likely outcome.

Saturday will be briefly cooler, though still somewhat above seasonal norms, as a strong 1030-1033mb high slowly noses in with dry northwesterly flow. The high will be overhead by Sunday morning, and then moving offshore for Sunday afternoon. So we will quickly return to 60s.

Another warm front will shuffle northeast Sunday night into Monday. The air mass associated with this one seems richer in moisture with the potential for a couple rounds of more moderate rainfall. The latest NBM data has temperatures surging into the mid 60s to lower 70s. This may be generous, especially if we have widespread rain ongoing midday next Monday.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 00Z Wednesday...Conditions will remain mainly VFR through the forecast period with a few snow showers remaining possible through the overnight hours. Should a stray shower move directly over a terminal, MVFR conditions would be possible. About 09z-12z, a weak area of low pressure will approach the Adirondacks, which will bring ceilings back down and will likely bring snow back into the area, especially south. Showers become more widespread as the next wave moves through the region. MVFR conditions will be possible through 20Z during showers with some chances of IFR in heavier elements. Kept conditions MVFR in this time period mainly with CIGs however. By 22Z, showers will be diminishing as the primary trough exits the region.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

EQUIPMENT

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.