textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 224 AM EDT Thursday...

No significant changes have been made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 224 AM EDT Thursday...

1. Warm and breezy conditions expected across the region today ahead of a weak cold front. Some light rain showers will be possible tonight into Friday, with drier conditions returning for the weekend.

2. Increased fire weather concerns through this weekend.

3. November will begin with dry, above normal temperatures, and remaining uncertain for the timing of precipitation in a week.

DISCUSSION

As of 224 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A warm and breezy day is expected across the region today as southerly flow continues to usher in milder conditions. Afternoon high temperatures look to climb into the 60s areawide, with a few locations even nearing 70 degrees. A weak cold front will move through the region late today, bringing the potential for some light rain showers. The combination of weak forcing and some dry air to overcome will limit rainfall amounts, with most locations only observing a few hundreths of an inch. Strong cold air advection looks to take place on Friday behind the front, with increased clouds and some chances for showers in the favored upslope areas. Temperatures on Friday will be more seasonable, with highs in the upper 40s and 50s.

Heading into the weekend, surface high pressure looks to build into the region once again. This will lead to another stretch of dry weather, with ample sunshine, light winds, and pleasant conditions to round out October and welcome the start of November. Temperatures on Saturday will be a little on the cooler side, with highs generally in the mid 40s to low 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Breezy winds and lower relative humidity values will lead to increased fire weather concerns over the next few days, especially given the plentiful dry leaves serving as fuel. Wind gusts today and Friday will generally be in the 15 to 25 mph range, with some higher gusts are possible. The highest winds gusts this afternoon are expected in the St. Lawrence Valley and northern slopes of the Adirondacks where gusts up to 35 mph are possible. Minimum relative humidity values will generally be between 40 to 55 percent for both today and Friday. Heading into the weekend, minimum relative humidity values should drop into the 30 to 45 percent range, but winds look to be much lighter. A weak front moves through the region later today, bringing some light rain showers however a wetting rainfall is not expected.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Surface high pressure will shift offshore, but mid-level ridging will remain in place. Temperatures will move towards above seasonal norms, which is generally upper 40s to lower 50s during the day, and mid 20s to mid 30s at night as we enter into November. Instead, we'll have mid 50s to lower 60s during the days, and then mid 30s to mid 40s at night. A cold front is going to try to sink southwards Monday afternoon into Tuesday, but the upper vort is going to abandon the boundary and race east instead. So without cold air backing up the boundary and meager moisture, it may generate a few light rain showers, but that's about it. The pattern becomes increasingly uncertain after next Tuesday as a compact, but a strong upper low will begin to take shape in the Plains. The question is whether it completely cuts off from the jet stream or if it quickly gets absorbed back into the mid-latitude westerlies. Increasing ridging across the high latitudes will be present, and so this will likely keeps things moving slowly. Assessing forecast placement shows significant spread amongst different ensemble scenarios. So it's likely not worth hazarding a guess to when that rain exactly arrives until we see better certainty.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 12Z Friday...Winds are beginning to increase across the region. Conditions are VFR with pockets of stratus generally at or above 6000 ft agl. South to southwest winds will become gusty between about 14z-23z, with the fastest winds at KBTV and KMSS. In general, surface wind speeds will range from 9-15 knots with gusts reaching 17-25 knots at times. A cold front will shift northwest to southeast about 21z-05z. Along the front, there will be some light rain showers, as well as a reduction in sustained winds and a gradual shift out of the southwest to west-southwest. This will result in pockets of LLWS for most terminals at some point in that window of time. Outside prevailing rain at KSLK and KMSS, the front is expected to decay, and so remaining terminals have PROB30s noted as the front shifts southeast. Ceilings will lower towards 2000-4000 ft agl behind the boundary, with the greatest chances of MVFR ceilings at KSLK and KEFK. After 06z, winds will become more westerly around 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...

Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

EQUIPMENT

Routine observations from KSLK ASOS are unavailable until further notice. While the site is operating, it is not able to disseminate observations normally at this time. Technicians are aware of the issue, but time of return to service is unknown.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.