textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 305 PM EDT Monday...

No significant changes were made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 310 PM EDT Monday...

1. Shower and isolated rumbles for thunder will continue until tonight as a cold front traverses the region with brief gusty conditions associated with the front. Drier conditions are expected tomorrow and Wednesday.

2. Seasonably warm and unsettled weather expected for the end of this week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 310 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: An upper level trough and associated cold front are slowly progressing east northeast through the region with scattered showers across portions of the area. Wrap around moisture along the convergent deformation band in northern New York will likely lead to some continued light shower chances through this afternoon. In Vermont, a boundary of showers and thunderstorms has exited east of the Connecticut River Valley and along with it, most of our instability for any stronger storms. Our marginal severe threat has ended as well as a result. Behind the boundary, some lingering showers will be possible, with perhaps an isolated rumble of thunder or two. Mainly, a quick half inch of rain will be possible in association with showers. Associated with the cold front, breezy, to locally gusty, winds are expected along the higher terrain and Champlain Valley this afternoon/evening. As the front swings east, an associated strengthening 40-50 knot low level jet will move along the northern portions of the region. Gusts on summit levels could gust up to 30-40 MPH, with valley winds around 20-30 MPH, mainly between 6 and 10 PM. A nocturnal inversion and eastward progression of the system will help temper down winds after midnight.

Showers and thunderstorms will taper off for most by late this afternoon. Lingering northwest wrap around flow could lead to some continued stubborn shower chances along the higher terrain of the northern Greens and Adirondacks tonight. Across eastern Vermont, fog development appears likely in the valleys of the region with brief high pressure nudging in from the west, and with calming winds. Tuesday and Wednesday will be quieter and calmer with temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s and mostly clear skies. Dewpoints will slowly creep up by mid week however, approaching the mid 60s in some places. With upper level diffluence in place from the high pressure, some decent mid-level forcing will coincide with decent moisture advection to bring scattered to numerous showers to the region Thursday afternoon with the potential for a few strong thunderstorms should forcing align with peak diurnal heating.

KEY MESSAGE 2: No significant changes have been made to the forecast for the end of the week into the weekend, with warm and unsettled weather expected as the region remains situated between a Bermuda high to our east and troughiness across the Plains. Broad southwesterly flow across the eastern US will allow for plentiful moisture to advect into to the region, with occasional shortwaves passing overhead helping to drive shower chances. As usual in this time frame, there is some uncertainty in the overall extent and timing of precipitation, but several rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms look likely at this point. With fairly weak forcing and limited instability, severe weather looks unlikely however areas of locally heavy rain will be possible with PWAT values near 2 inches, although there should be enough flow to limit any flood threat but trends will need to be monitored as we get closer. Temperatures during this time frame look to be on the warmer side, with highs climbing into the 80s areawide this weekend, with increased humidity making it feel a little uncomfortable at times.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 00Z Wednesday...The cold front has cleared most of Vermont with a post frontal trough working through the region. A few showers linger in eastern Vermont, but will be gone by 01Z. Winds will be slower to drop aloft and will keep widespread fog at bay, but can't rule out some fog 08-12Z especially east of the Greens. Best chances for IFR CIG/VIS restrictions will be at MPV/EFK with more marginal chances at SLK due to fog/mist. Gusty northwest winds will begin to separate as the sun sets, but will likely maintain 4-8kt speeds until after 04Z. Lake temperatures may keep winds more coupled along the shores of Lake Champlain overnight. Gradient winds tomorrow will be less than this evening, but could see some gusts peaking around 20kts at MSS as flow aligns with the St Lawrence Valley.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

MARINE

As of 440 PM EDT Monday... A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for the broad and northern waters of Lake Champlain until 10 PM today. Northwest to west winds behind a cold front are leading to increased winds on Lake Champlain enhancing gusts and wave conditions. Winds and gusts on the lake will increase to 20 to 30 knots through this evening, before diminishing to 5 to 15 knots after 10 PM. Waves will be generally 2 to 3 ft, before lowering back to 1 to 2 feet for the broad and 1 foot or less for the northern waters by midnight.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.