textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 139 PM EST Tuesday...No changes were needed. A Nor'easter is being monitored, but probabilistic guidance suggests it will remain well away from the region at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 139 PM EST Tuesday...

1. Periods of isolated to scattered snow showers expected through Thursday night.

2. Cold temperatures/wind chills Thursday night.

3. Continued cold through the weekend while closely monitoring potential east coast storm.

DISCUSSION

As of 139 PM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Cyclonic flow aloft coupled with unidirectional winds off of Lake Ontario will support some snow showers this afternoon and tonight across portions of northern New York towards the northern Greens. Locations in northern New York in southern St Lawrence County could see up to 3 inches, but the band will quickly waver southward towards Wednesday morning. Lower totals are possible for the northern Greens. Snow showers may continue intermittently in the northern Greens through Thursday night as flow turns more northwesterly favoring some upslope showers. Moisture is quite anemic, so any amounts will be very light.

.KEY MESSAGE 2: A trough swings through Thursday/Thursday night while low pressure is favored to track up the mid-Atlantic coastline. The result will be a tightening pressure gradient and as increase in cold air advection across northern New York and Vermont. Model temperatures favor well below average temperatures Thursday night coupling with winds to bring wind chill values down into the -15 to -30 range for much of northern New York and -5 to -20 elsewhere. These values promote increased risk of hypothermia and frost bite especially for sensitive populations.

.KEY MESSAGE 3: Continued cold through early next week with eyes watching a potential east coast storm for potential impacts.

Rotating closed low across Eastern Canada-New England will pivot a strong shortwave south across the Great Lakes, Oh Rvr Vly and form a strong closed low in SE CONUS by Saturday with strong cyclogenesis off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sat ngt-Sunday.

At this point, the big question is where does this low track? Looking at numerous ensemble guidance it looks to track near or south of the 40N/70W benchmark which is unfavorable for VT and northern NY is you're looking for accumulating snow. Also...strong storms (pressure gradients) keep moisture rather tight toward the center of the circulation so the north side will have the greatest precipitation gradient between the Haves and the Have Nots.

Currently...probabilities of 0.1 or greater QPF from the GEFS/CMC/ECMWF and AI versions show 10-20 percent for lower CT Rvr Vly with even less than 50 percent of 0.01 for Champlain Vly west. The ongoing forecast has a minimum POP for snow Champl Vly east.

Meanwhile as I mentioned as the key message we stay colder than normal Fri-Sun with Friday being the coldest and then some slight moderation but still below normal for early next week.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 00Z Thursday...Challenging tafs this evening as conditions range from IFR at MSS/SLK to VFR at BTV/PBG and RUT. Expect periods of very light snow to prevail this evening with highest probability of localized IFR vis at SLK/MPV and EFK. Expect light snow at MSS to shift eastward in the next 30 minutes or so. Also, did note increasing low level moisture profiles at SLK, which could produce IFR cigs after 06z, given a 40-50% prob of occurring have used tempo group to highlight potential. Otherwise, mostly VFR conditions in the valleys and MVFR with intervals of IFR in the mountain sites of EFK/SLK and MPV thru 04z, before conditions slowly improve to mostly MVFR. Winds are light and variable through 12z Weds.

EQUIPMENT

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.