textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 227 AM EDT Thursday...

No significant changes to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 256 AM EDT Thursday...

1. Warming conditions with widespread light rain expected today into the overnight, changing to terrain snow by early tomorrow morning.

2. Unseasonably cold temperatures and drier conditions to start the weekend.

3. Unsettled weather prevails for midweek with a roller coaster ride in the temperature department.

DISCUSSION

As of 718 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Following the northward lift of a warm front this morning, temperatures will surge into the upper 40s to mid 50s across the region. As morning showers lift northeastward, there should be some time for some daytime heating with southerly waa. Lapse rates will steepen as the low to mid levels dry ahead of another approaching shortwave. Portions of the Champlain Valley and southern Vermont perhaps may reach 60 degrees tomorrow afternoon briefly, but that will be depending on the total mixing and may be reliant on some breaks in sun. However, confidence remains high that some clouds will linger between system tomorrow which may keep highs under 60. Aiding our warm surge will be breezy south to north winds 15-20 mph particularly in the Champlain Valley. As our next system arrives tomorrow afternoon, winds will become westerly, shifting the area of breezy conditions to the eastern downslope regions of the Adirondacks and eastern Greens, where gusts may reach 20-25 mph.

Our next system will bring widespread rain and eventually some mixed precipitation tomorrow afternoon into the overnight. Rain is expected to move from west to east afternoon tomorrow from northern New York into Vermont. The track of the system has slide a bit south in the recent guidance which has led to a slight reduction in overall rainfall amounts, however we are still anticipating a wetting rain between a tenth to two tenths in the northern Champlain Valley, due to Adirondacks shadowing, and around a quarter inch elsewhere. Locations in extreme southern Vermont could see locally higher amounts due to higher confidence in more persistent rainfall with amounts around 0.4 inches. A cold front will then slide across the region tomorrow evening sharply dropping temperatures overnight such that Friday morning temperatures will be in the upper teens to mid 20s. As temperatures fall this evening into tonight, rain will change to a wintry mix and then snow from north to south, tapering off around Midnight Friday. Rain will change to snow across the higher elevations first, then potentially reaching the valley floors briefly, but moisture will be exiting at the surface as temperatures fall which will limit any accumulations. Snow may linger across the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom into early Friday morning with a quick dusting to a few tenths of an inch of snow above. The summits could locally see an inch potentially. The system should fully clear the region by early to mid morning Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Behind our end of week system Friday morning, the rest of Friday will be quiet weather wise with clearing skies, though remaining on the cold side. Highs will struggle to reach the freezing mark with values in the upper 20s to low 30s. With clearing skies, however, the March sun angle should make it feel slightly warmer than the high temperature would suggest. This sun angle should also lead to widespread snow melt under 1500ft, which with the rainfall from today will lead to some local river rises, however, no rivers are currently forecast to reach Action Stage. Breezy conditions Friday morning will subside by the afternoon as we trend towards lighter northerly winds under 10 mph. Friday night will, in all likelihood, be the last cold night of the season as lows dip to the single digits for most locations outside of southern Vermont and the Champlain Valley where lows will fall to the low to mid teens. A few sheltered locations in the Adirondacks and far northern Northeast Kingdom could potentially near 0 degrees. Lows in general will not be record breaking by any means, but rather 10 degrees below average.

High pressure will build in for Saturday keeping the region under unseasonably cool conditions with highs around 10-15 degrees below normal. Highs will once again struggle to reach the freezing mark areawide with highs in the mid 20s to low 30s, as northwest flow continues to keep cool Canadian air funneled into the area. Notably, while there is moderate confidence in calm weather on Saturday, lapse rates will be relatively steep with some energy riding along the northern periphery of the high pressure, which could lead to some isolated convective light snow showers. Confidence is low in shower activity given the high and dry air across the area, and any showers would not cause any impacts as accumulations would be minimal with limited moisture.

KEY MESSAGE 3: The latest WPC forecast has arrived into our database, which suggests unsettled wx develops for midweek with changeable temps as a sfc boundary remains draped acrs our cwa. The WPC grids indicate the highest probability of precip is late Weds into Thurs, with their grids suggesting pops in the 60 to 70% range. The large scale synoptic setup is similar to our crnt event with a sharp boundary draped acrs our cwa for midweek, while weak area of low pres develops along thermal gradient. Initially a warm front and associated lift/moisture produces a mix of rain/snow on Weds morning. Developing southwest 850mb jet of 45 to 60 knots wl help to eventually place most of our cwa in a warm sector for 18 to 24 hours, as primary sfc low pres tracks to our north on Weds night into Thurs. Its always challenging with lingering arctic high pres over central/eastern Canada, with the timing and magnitude of waa acrs our cwa, especially if low level flow remains from the north, as progged by some guidance. Eventually sfc low pres shifts eastward and llvl caa develops on backside with temps dropping back below normal by late week. No large scale impactful or significant weather is indicated by WPC grids attm. Just a heads up, it looks like our summit winds from WPC are way too light for midweek associated with developing llvl jet of 45 to 60 knots, expect gusts up to 50 knots at summit level.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 12Z Friday...A warm front is lifting north toward the International Border this morning, while drier air aloft is moving into our taf sites. Localized mist with MVFR/IFR is possible at SLK/MSS thru 14z. The rest of the taf sites should experience a mix of MVFR/VFR cigs/vis trending toward VFR at all sites by 14z. Areas of low level wind shear and turbulence is likely through this morning associated with 2000 to 4000 foot winds of 35 to 50 knots. As better mixing develops shear decreases and surface wind gusts increase from the south/southwest at 10 to 25 knots. Surface low pres and associated cold front drop south this afternoon/evening across our taf sites with a period of steady rain and winds shifting to the north. This will quickly lower cigs toward IFR with rain changing to snow between 00z-03z before ending by 07z. A period of IFR cigs are likely at most taf sites between 00z-06z this evening, with MSS/PBG improving first.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.

EQUIPMENT

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.