textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 226 AM EDT Monday...

No significant changes have been made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 226 AM EDT Monday...

1. Mostly dry weather will continue through Tuesday.

2. More widespread precipitation is expected to arrive Wednesday night into Thursday.

3. High pressure will bring a spell of drier weather to the region late week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 226 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: An upper low remains centered over the Canadian Maritimes to our east, with high pressure building into the region bringing dry and seasonable conditions for the first portion of the week. Temperatures today will climb into the 70s across the region with some mostly sunny skies. A decaying cold front pushing through Monday night into early Tuesday may bring spark some light rain showers, particularly near the Canadian border, although this feature may lead to increased cloud cover rather than any actual precipitation. Tuesday looks to be another dry and seasonably cool day, with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: As we head into the middle of the week, a series of frontal boundaries will bring chances of widespread precipitation for Wednesday night into Thursday. A plume of tropical moisture will advect into the region, with PWAT values in excess of 2 inches, allowing for a period of moderate to heavy rainfall. Fast flow aloft and a decent LLJ will keep the system moving, limiting the duration of any heavy rainfall. Additionally, limited instability and weak mid-level lapse rates will limit convective potential, with mostly beneficial rainfall expected and any hydrological concerns unlikely. At this time rainfall amounts look to generally range between 0.25 and 0.75 inches, although some amounts closer to an inch may be possible, especially with any orographic enhancement, but as we get closer more detail is expected. While the bulk of precipitation is expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning, a few diurnally driven showers will be possible throughout the day Thursday, especially across the high terrain with lingering moisture.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Following the frontal passage on Thursday, high pressure will quickly establish itself across the North Country on Friday. Plenty of sunshine, light winds, and drier weather will ensue once the high pressure system builds overhead. This will likely set up a classic fog situation Friday night and Saturday night with widespread dense fog across the river valleys of Vermont and northern New York. We could see some rain chances as early as Sunday afternoon as the deterministic guidance is split on how much a shortwave will dig out an upper level trough across the Great Lakes region. The most likely scenario is little to no shower activity on Sunday and at worst case scenario a weak front will bring scattered rain chances. Either way, it'll be a nice end of the work week and weekend across the region. The upper level pattern becomes more amplified towards the beginning of next week which could potentially introduce some rain chances but if the amplification occurs across the Rockies, it may act to enhance the upper level ridge and bring an extended period of dry weather to the North Country.

AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 12Z Tuesday...Outside of some morning fog in the favored river valleys, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Some locally dense fog and low stratus is currently bringing some IFR ceilings to KSLK but these are expected to mix out by 12Z. Winds will be light through 14-15Z with winds increasing to 5 to 15 knots from the north through the afternoon hours. Winds will once again go light and variable overnight with increasing mid-level clouds expected after 00Z.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.