textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 124 AM EST Monday...

No significant changes were made with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 124 AM EST Monday...

1. Upper low pressure will keep the weather unsettled through the middle of the week.

2. Monitoring the potential for wintry weather over the weekend, and plenty of model spread/uncertainty remains.

DISCUSSION

As of 124 AM EST Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: More of the same dreary weather expected for the first half of the week. We remain on the periphery of upper low pressure centered near the Gaspe Peninsula early this morning, with patchy light rain and drizzle occurring across much of the region. This activity is associated with a shortwave trough rounding the base of the trough, and we'll see a series of these over the next 48-72 hours. As such, periods of showers will continue to plague the region, particularly today and then again Tuesday into Tuesday night. As has been the case, most of the precipitation will fall as rain, with areas AOA 2500 ft mixing with and/or changing to snow overnight and into the early morning hours. A reinforcing shot of cold air Tuesday night will bring snow levels as low as 1500 ft or so, mainly along the international border and the northern Adirondacks/Greens, and this is the best chance for seeing any accumulating snow below 2000 ft, though even then, it'll be pretty minimal. The cold pool aloft and some meager instability could allow for more robust showers to produce some graupel both this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon, along with brief moderately heavy rainfall. Daytime temperatures will be similar both days, mainly in the mid 40s to low 50s, with the southern St Lawrence/Champlain Valleys approaching the mid 50s Tuesday afternoon under increasing W/SW flow. These winds will be on the breezy side Tuesday and Tuesday evening, particularly at summit level and on the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks and central/southern Greens. Gusts to 30 mph will be possible in these locations, with 35 to 45+ mph atop the mountain summits. Wednesday is looking to be the driest day, with shower coverage to be confined to the Northeast Kingdom and mainly during the morning hours. Some sunshine might break through in the afternoon, but it will remain seasonably cool with highs remaining in the 40s to around 50F.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A fairly messy weather pattern will prevail for the latter half of the week. Temperatures appear likely to be about the same from day-to-day with upper 30s to mid 40s during the day and 20s to lower 30s at night. A high amplitude ridge will build across the western US while a pair of shortwaves dig well into the southeastern US on Thursday. These will eventually interact with the persistent upper low to our north during the weekend. Depending on the exact track of surface low pressure, the interaction between the various upper vorts, and which will be most intense will affect the outlook for Friday into Saturday. Given the broad, disorganized nature of the upper level features, it seems likely that the thermal gradient and active subtropical jet could be the deciding factors, which would favor suppressed, southern solutions. However, raw ensemble probabilities (both statistical, AI-driven and physics- based forecasts) suggest it is worth monitoring the potential for accumulating snow in our forecast area. We recently highlighted preparedness for winter weather across New England, and so it is good to be ready whether or not something takes place. Given the temperature forecast, this would likely be a wet snow with some rain potential in the valleys, and if there is much in the way of snow, accumulations will depend on elevation. Weather will turn cool under northwest flow heading into Sunday and Monday, with orographic, upslope snow showers possible.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 06Z Tuesday...A trough is shifting east across northern New York and Vermont at this time. It is producing scattered showers across our terminals and starting to reduce ceilings across the region. Ceilings should trend 700-2500 ft agl in the next couple hours for almost all terminals, and then stay largely steady state through about 13-15z. Winds will be light and variable or southwesterly much of the night, and then at that 13-15z window will transition to west-northwest or northwest winds. In combination with a little daylight, ceilings should lift some towards 2000-5000 ft agl. It'll be during this transition time that shower chances will briefly drop, but hit-or- miss activity will likely return during the afternoon and evening beneath a cold upper low passing overhead. Shower activity will begin to diminish, with ceilings lingering around 2000-4000 ft agl overnight with west to northwest winds 5-10 knots, with gusts 15-18 knots for eastern slopes.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Patchy BR. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA. Veterans Day: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance RA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA, Chance SN. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance RA, Chance SN.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.