textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 514 AM EDT Wednesday...

The Severe Thunderstorm Watch has ended. A few showers will linger early. Smoke has been added to parts of northern New York and Vermont Wednesday evening into Thursday ahead of a cold front.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 150 AM EDT Wednesday...

1. Storms moving away today. A few showers will linger.

2. Smoky conditions through Thursday until a reinforcing frontal boundary brings rain and pushes it south.

3. Seasonable temperatures and showers likely this weekend with possible thunderstorms, then another round of showers and potential storms early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 514 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Strong to severe thunderstorms have cleared the region. We conclude a night that featured a dangerous storm in St. Lawrence County that dropped baseball-sized hail and a few storms that managed to produce wind damage within bowing segments, particularly across south-central Vermont. Things are quieter now, especially on account of the large amount of lightning on display with the overnight convection. A few showers are lingering as they approach the Adirondacks with a few spots in eastern Vermont without lightning. As always, we appreciate reports, as they help us get a scope on the impacts of the event.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Wildfire smoke will move back into the region late Wednesday afternoon and overnight, spreading across Vermont and northern New York into Thursday. Poor air quality will be possible, but temperatures will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s for the most part. With diurnal heating, some showers and storms will develop along the cold front shifting south, but it will not have nearly as much instability as this evening's activity. Cooler conditions ensue.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Longwave troughing will cross the region this weekend as two surface low pressures, one in the Great Lakes and one along the mid-Atlantic coast, will interact while tracking through the Northeast. Global deterministic models are fairly aligned in this idea at the moment, providing increased confidence of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning. The probability of an inch of rainfall within 24 hours from this system is around 5-20%. More likely 24 hour amounts will fall somewhere between 0.33 and 0.66 inches. Depending on the storm track and timing of any associated frontal passages, the threat of strong to severe storms will be watched, but the threat should remain on the lower side due to a cooler and less humid airmass. Temperatures will remain around seasonal normals in the mid 70s to lower 80s both Saturday and Sunday with nighttime lows in the upper 40s to lower 60s. Next week should start briefly dry on Monday with temperatures increasing into the upper 70s and 80s, then another trough and northern stream low pressure swing through to increase chance of precipitation again on Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 12Z Thursday...A few showers are traveling near KRUT, but otherwise, drying is expecting. Northwest winds will increase up to 8 to 13 knots sustained with gusts 19 to 23 knots from 14z-23z. Winds will become light and variable afterwards. Smoky conditions are expected, mostly aloft today. After about 21z, smoke will move from west to east through the area. For now, held off adding reduced visibility and will monitor upstream obs. Winds remain elevated aloft after 00z, and this should prevent fog, but with the addition of smoke, it's possible that could still allow for more fog formation.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Saturday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.