textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

No significant changes were made to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

1. Much more pleasant weather conditions will occur today with a dry airmass over the region. Some low chances of showers return late Monday into Tuesday as low passes south of Vermont.

2. Warmer weather expected for the middle of next week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A dry continental airmass has moved into the region and will keep conditions much more pleasant despite temperatures ranging a couple/few degrees above seasonal averages. Temperatures will generally be running in the upper 70s to mid 80s through Tuesday.

Next chances for showers return late Monday and Tuesday as a low moves through southern New York state. Isentropic lift is favored to be sufficient enough and penetrate northward into southern Vermont with some shower chances in central and possibly northern Vermont by Tuesday should the low's track be shift northward. Otherwise, winds will remain light

KEY MESSAGE 2: Warm weather is expected to build towards the middle of the week, with current forecast high temperatures in the 80s to low 90s. A cold front will eventually move through the region, most likely late Thursday or Friday, with drier and more seasonable conditions expected heading toward the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage, with the potential for any stronger storms to be monitored as we get closer as there is still plenty of uncertainty regarding the exact strength and timing of these features.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 12Z Monday...Other than some lingering fog and low stratus this morning, which should dissipate over the next few hours, VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast period. KMPV, KSLK, and KRUT are currently impacted by fog and/or stratus but improvement is expected towards 13Z or so, with mostly clear skies through the afternoon. Winds look to be light throughout the forecast period, trending more north/northwesterly into the afternoon before trending more variable again overnight, although winds will remain below 10 knots.

Outlook...

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.