textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 100 AM EST Wednesday...

Nothing has changed.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 100 AM EST Wednesday...

1. Several rounds of light snow showers this week.

2. Cold temperatures/wind chills Thursday night.

3. Nor'easter likely to remain well out to sea.

DISCUSSION

As of 100 AM EST Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A large upper level trough sits over the region this week, leading to an extended period of moist cyclonic flow. Several shortwaves will pivot around this trough and bring a isolated to scattered snow showers. However, these will generally be moisture starved and accumulations will be minimal. The most consistent snow looks to be Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Slightly deeper moisture, a low saturated dendritic growth zone and northwest flow will cause widespread upslope snow showers, though the moisture will be too shallow for any significant accumulation. Forecast snow totals are under an inch despite a relatively long period of snow showers for the higher elevations. Flow looks to become quite blocked so snow showers are also possible down all the way in the Champlain Valley.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A reinforcing shot of cold air enters Thursday and drops temperatures further for Thursday night into Friday. Cold air advection should continue through Thursday night for most places, keeping the boundary layer coupled and some wind around. These winds, combined with the cold temperatures, look to drop wind chills into the -15 to -25 degree range for most places. However, there is some uncertainty regarding on how low they go. This could end up being a case where either temperatures fall to their current lows or even farther, or winds stay up but temperatures are warmer then forecast. These could end up causing higher wind chills than forecast. Model guidance is still split on the amount the boundary layer will decouple and how many clouds will be around, but as the forecast stands, a Cold Weather Advisory would need to be at least issued for the Adirondacks and St. Lawrence Valley. &&

KEY MESSAGE 3: The vast majority (~90%) of models keep strong coastal low south of the 40 N, 70 W benchmark, and so if we receive any precipitation, it may be associated with moisture pulled in from the Labrador Sea while we remain under northeast flow. Breezy north winds will be felt, though, with gusts up to 20 mph over the eastern portion of Vermont. Some probabilistic guidance suggests the potential for some 30 mph gusts, but these chances are rather low at less than 20 percent, but will keep an eye. The trajectory of the low is such that we don't see much cold air as flow stays northeastwards, and this means we'll at least see some 20s for daytime highs, which is closer to normal than we've been the last several days.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 12Z Thursday...Again, snow showers linger at KEFK, KSLK, and KMPV, with the greatest reductions in visibility taking place at KEFK. It has been more persistent than expected. Forecast soundings at various locations indicate some drying between 14z to 17z, which seems reasonable as the sun rises and surface lapse rates increase. Ceilings around 3500-5000 ft agl are expected through the day with winds out of the southwest about 4 to 9 knots. An approaching trough will result in slowing, more variable winds. Ceilings will trend towards 2000-3000 ft agl, as well. Snow is possible, but the extent is uncertain, and visibilities restrictions may be minimal. Remained with PROB30s in the forecast now between about 03z and 08z.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.

EQUIPMENT

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.