textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 218 PM EDT Tuesday...

No significant changes to the current forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 218 PM EDT Tuesday...

1. Large ridge of surface high pressure will keep conditions dry with seasonable temperatures through late week.

2. Dry and seasonable conditions continue through the beginning of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 218 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Period of dry weather continues for the north country as large ridge of surface high pressure nudges into our area out of Canada. Lots of dry air remains in place, and winds are out of the north following the passage of a weak surface boundary this morning. After afternoon ranging highs ranging through the 50s today, minimum temperatures overnight will dip into the mid 20s to mid 30s, warmest along Lake Champlain where the temperatures will be closer to 40. Ideal radiational cooling conditions, will also lead to some patchy fog developing in the typically fog prone spots. Surface high will retreat to the north and east of our area tomorrow as a Nor'easter meanders off the east coast. Wednesday night a weak cold front will cross our area, bringing colder conditions for Thursday and Friday to close out the work week, with another surface ridge of high pressure building into our area from the northwest. Maximum temperatures on Friday will struggle to get out of the 40s. Winds will also be brisk out of the north, especially on Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A classic stretch of fall weather will continue this weekend and into the beginning of next week. Surface high pressure will be centered almost directly overhead over the weekend, leading to clear skies, light winds and highs in the 50s. Most mornings will be frosty with lows in the 20s and 30s. A moisture starved cold front moves through Monday and Monday night and while a brief sprinkle or mountain flurry is possible during its passage, it will be pretty much completely dry. Temperatures rise to around 60 Monday, before highs drop back into the 50s and potentially upper 40s for Tuesday.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 00Z Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions are expected under clear skies. Some fog is possible this evening, given the favorable radiational cooling. However, dry conditions may prevent fog formation. Trends for fog have decreased some, and have thus trended fog in TEMPOs towards 3 or 4SM with the highest probabilities at KMPV and KMSS, with the primary window between 09z-12z. Light and variable flow, with terrain southeasterly winds at KRUT will remain through about 12-14z, and then trend increasingly variable after 14z.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.