textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 242 AM EDT Monday...

No significant changes were made to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 242 AM EDT Monday...

1. A few showers possible for northeastern Vermont today will be followed by more widespread showers across southern Vermont tonight into Tuesday.

2. Next chance for showers Thursday afternoon into Friday as a cold front moves through the region. Temperatures will start out above normal then trend back towards seasonal normals over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 242 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Weak convergence under the ridge is favored to develop this afternoon across northeastern Vermont and may produce a few showers. Thunderstorms are unlikely given the position of the ridge axis that will cap upward development. Low pressure tracking south of Vermont tonight into Tuesday will increase shower chances across southern Vermont as flow promotes isentropic upglide. Rainfall totals shouldn't be significant and generally favored at less than 0.25". Models have shifted the area of precipitation southward from previous runs resulting in lower chances of rain for northern/central Vermont.

Temperatures will be close to seasonal averages with highs ranging in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Cloud cover Tuesday will suppress highs into the mid/upper 70s to low 80s with highest temperatures towards the Canadian border. A warming trend is probable starting Wednesday with potential for some upper 80s in the Champlain Valley.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front will eventually move through the region, most likely late Thursday or Friday, with drier and more seasonable conditions expected heading toward the weekend. High temperatures look to generally be in the upper 70s and 80s towards the end of next week. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage, with the potential for any stronger storms to be monitored as we get closer as there is still plenty of uncertainty regarding the exact strength and timing of these features.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 12Z Tuesday...VFR conditions currently prevail across all terminals, and are expected to continue throughout the forecast period. Winds will generally be light and variable overnight, trending more south/southeasterly through the day, generally less than 10 knots. High clouds and drier conditions should limit any fog development tonight. Cloud cover is expected to increase throughout the day tomorrow, with ceilings generally 5000 ft AGL or greater. Low pressure tracking south of Vermont will be increasing easterly wind fields aloft after 09Z Tuesday promoting some LLWS at RUT/MPV as shower chances begin to increase.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.