textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 314 AM EDT Thursday...

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 314 AM EDT Thursday...

1. Light rain showers will move across our area today, especially our southern Vermont zones. Drier breezy conditions return on Friday with cool temperatures overnight.

2. Next chance for showers will be early Sunday, also especially our southern Vermont zones.

3. From Monday through Wednesday dry weather is likely along with a warming trend.

DISCUSSION

As of 314 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: An open wave of low pressure passes south of our forecast area today, spreading some light rain showers across the region. Best chance for showers in our area will be across southern Vermont, but have some mention of showers across areas as far north as the international border. Maximum temperatures today will range through the 70s. Rainfall totals will be up to four tenths of an inch in our extreme southern zones, with many areas not measuring. A ridge of surface high pressure will then build into our area from the north on Friday into Friday night. This will bring drier weather, and some gusty winds on Friday followed by cool temperatures Friday night with ideal radiational cooling conditions in place.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Another low pressure system will pass south of our area Saturday night into Sunday, once again our best chances for showers will be across our southern zones. Models are finally starting to fall into better agreement with how far north the precipitation will spread. Precipitation will be more widespread with this system than the previous one. At this time around a tenth of an inch of rain along the international border up to three quarters of an inch in southern Vermont can be expected.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Our region should be under the influence of a seasonably cool high pressure area gradually moving eastward to start the work week. Temperatures should be about 10 degrees below normal Monday trending to around normal on Wednesday. With this pattern and 925 millibar temperatures falling to near the 10th percentile, Tuesday morning should be another frosty one for sheltered areas that already saw frost Saturday morning.

An expansive ridge over southern Quebec with the upper level ridge axis centered farther west will tend to keep our air quite dry through this period, with both temperatures and dew points gradually modifying. Somewhat increasing spread in guidance with regards to the position of a slow moving trough to our south, and associated increases in moisture, is evident. As such, slight chances of rain do come farther north/east at times Tuesday and Wednesday, possibly reaching our region. For now, the consensus strongly favors rainfree conditions (PoPs 15% or less) even if cloud cover tends to increase.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 06Z Friday...A seasonably moist night with light winds has supported low clouds and patchy fog, resulting in LIFR at EFK and SLK that is likely to persist through 12-13Z. There are some indications of fog development in model guidance at MSS, with highest probabilities between 10 and 12Z, but think this is unlikely or at most very brief in nature. More likely will be development of fog at MPV given proximity of a weak front and climatology, especially as a small area of clouds with bases around 5000 feet exit the airspace.

An area of showers is expected to track over southern portions of the airspace, with much higher chances of rain over RUT than any other site, particularly in the 18Z to 00Z timeframe. Rain there will likely result in MVFR conditions, and possibly at MPV if rain tracks farther north than currently anticipated; elsewhere, any rain should be light enough to not cause any categorical changes. Winds will remain light, mainly 5 knots or less, through the period.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. NO SIG WX. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.