textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 251 PM EDT Saturday...

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 251 PM EDT Saturday...

1. Widespread light rain and cool temperatures tomorrow.

2. Rain exits Monday and mostly dry conditions occur Tuesday.

3. Remaining unsettled through mid to late next week, likely trending cooler by next weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 251 PM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A surface low moves into the region Sunday and brings a period of light overrunning precipitation. While much of the morning and early afternoon should be wet, low rainfall rates will only lead to modest totals. Southwestern areas will see around and slightly above a half inch, but most places will only see a couple tenths of an inch. The precipitation will struggle to advance northeast into a strong high pressure centered near Atlantic Canada. A strong southeasterly low-level jet will move overhead late tonight and tomorrow, bringing gusty winds. Peak gusts will be in the 15 to 30 mph range. Downsloping along the western slopes of the Greens and in parts of the Adirondacks will likely lead to a few locally higher gusts and lower precipitation totals. Much of the initial rain will fall as virga due to very dry low levels, and a wetting rain may not reach the Northeast Kingdom. The cool and dry antecedent airmass and a low track to the southwest of the region will cause very efficient wet-bulb cooling. Despite being in a similar airmass tomorrow, temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees colder than today, with highs in the 50s for most places.

KEY MESSAGE 2: As the occluded front moves through on the backside of the low Sunday night into Monday, another round of rain looks to move through. Confidence is increasing that a surface low will develop along this front and lead to another round of widespread, stratiform precip. By this point, the low level jet will have exited and downsloping will no longer be much of a factor. The airmass will also have been fully saturated by this point, so it is looking increasingly possible that the Northeast Kingdom and downslope areas receive more out of this system than the rain Sunday. Overall, totals should only be in the range of a couple tenths of an inch. There is no significant cold air on the backside of the system, so after the precipitation exits Monday, temperatures should rise into the 70s for most places. Temperatures look to be a few degrees higher on Tuesday with dry conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Warmest conditions of the week will be on Tuesday as we upper 70s to mid 80s across the CWA. Conditions will generally dry, but chances for an early evening thunderstorm or two is not out of the question as a weak trough straddles the International Boarder. From midweek onwards, models still differ from run to run, but generally show a broad upper low over Nova Scotia that will lock in a pattern shortwave troughs moving through periodically throughout the back half of the week. With that, expect temperatures to cool daily, from the low 80s mid week to 60s by Friday. Overnight lows will not feel like mid-spring either as we could see temperatures in the low to mid 40s overnight Wednesday through early Saturday morning. Seeing some areas drop down in to the 30s is not out of the question as well.

There is some model guidance that shows we could see a cutoff low Friday and into Saturday which would greatly increase the chances for widespread precipitation and, dare I say, some snow in the higher elevations. We'll continue to watch as the guidance comes into more alignment.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 12Z Sunday...VFR conditions will prevail through the most of the TAF period. Skies early generally BKN-OVC 250 this morning, but clouds will continue to thicken and lower through the day. Ceilings generally remaining AOA 10 kft through 00z Sun, and above 3500 ft overnight at all terminals except KMSS and possibly KSLK and KRUT, where MVFR conditions are possible after 08z. Steady light rain will start to spread into the region from SW to NE after 08z as well, with visibility 5-6SM. Light and variable winds this morning will become S/SE 6-12 kt after 15z today and remain so through the remainder of the TAF period, becoming locally gusty toward 10z. LLWS is expected at most sites after 06z Sun as well.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA, Chance SHRA. Memorial Day: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.