textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 307 PM EDT Thursday...

No major changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 307 PM EDT Thursday...

1. Rain to affect portions of our region associated with a Nor'easter tracking along New England coast.

2. Drier and warmer weather will begin the week before more shower chances mid week.

DISCUSSION

As of 307 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: High pressure will remain in control of our weather across the north country through early Saturday morning. Tonight will be another cool one with mainly clear skies and some fog formation in the valleys, some patchy frost in the colder spots of the Adirondacks also. Increasing clouds on Friday and into Friday night from the southeast will help to prevent both fog and frost formation Friday night. Low pressure currently located off the coast of the Carolinas will track northeastward, and bring heavy rain and strong winds to parts of the northeast. Our region will be a bit on the periphery of this system, but will still have some gusty winds Friday into Saturday, and some rain showers Saturday into Saturday night. There is still some uncertainty with respect to how far north and west the showers spread into our region. Because of this, there's some uncertainty with how much precipitation we have. At this time looks like we could have about half an inch of precipitation in Windsor county, and the international border could be dry. We will have even less rain in northern New York, maybe just a couple tenths of an inch in parts of Essex County, New York. Models are also indicating that this Nor'easter is likely to have bands of precipitation associated with it, which makes it a bit difficult to forecast the precipitation amounts and location of the heavier rainfall. There is a strong jet associated with this system, which will lead to some gusty surface winds. The higher terrain of Vermont and northern New York as well as areas around Lake Champlain will have the strongest wind gusts. Temperatures will be on the cooler side as well, especially Sunday as clouds and periods of showers are expected, especially across southern and eastern Vermont.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Any lingering showers from the Nor'easter should taper off on Monday, though some clouds will likely linger. A Bermuda High will shift northwest and attempt to gain influence over the region for mid-week, but a cold front will be dropping southwest out of Canada. While the cold front will likely prevent the warm airmass from being completely established, temperatures will likely rise into the 70s and dew points should rise well into the 50s for much of the region. There will be a few showers associated with the front, but no consistent rainfall. However, ensemble guidance completely diverges after the mid-week, with solutions split between the Bermuda High building back and a second cold front pushing through. Therefore, the forecast is a blend between the two solutions and it will likely split one way or the other.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 18Z Friday...VFR conditions will generally persist for the next 24 hours, except for fog formation tonight in the climatologically favored areas. Conditions at all terminals will remain VFR through the evening. The fog will begin to form after midnight and it should reach MPV, SLK and EFK by around 6-9Z. Fog will form over the Winooski River right next to the runway at BTV, but whether it will drift onto the runway for a few brief periods of time remains uncertain (maybe a 60 percent chance of an instance of IFR). Brief periods of fog are possible at MSS later in the night. Any fog lifts by 13-14Z and VFR conditions will persist for the rest of the day. Winds will generally go light/variable and calm tonight, before increasing into the 5-15 KT range out of the north/northeast tomorrow.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.