textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 124 PM EST Monday...

No significant changes were made with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 124 PM EST Monday...

1. Upper low pressure will keep the weather unsettled and breezy into the late week.

2. High uncertainty with end of week system, but trending cooler and showery regardless.

DISCUSSION

As of 124 PM EST Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Multi layer stacked low pressure currently rotating over far eastern Quebec, centered near Anticosti Island, will keep our forecast area in classic dreary November weather into the late week. Clouds continue to blanket northern New York and Vermont this afternoon and tonight with scattered to isolated showers, then our next shortwave comes through Tuesday, greatly increasing probabilities of precipitation Tuesday and Tuesday night. Daytime highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s will mean this precipitation mainly falls in the form of rain during daylight hours. The cold pool aloft and some meager instability could allow for more robust showers to produce some graupel on Tuesday afternoon, along with brief moderately heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Overall winds out of the southwest will be breezy Tuesday, particularly on summits and eastern slopes of mountains. Gusts to 30 mph will be possible on the eastern slopes, with 35 to 45+ mph atop the mountain summits. A reinforcing shot of cold air Tuesday night will bring snow levels as low as 1500 ft or so, mainly along the international border and the northern Adirondacks/Greens, and this is the best chance for seeing any accumulating snow below 2000 ft, though even then, it'll be pretty minimal. Lows by Wednesday morning will fall into the mid 20s to mid 30s. During the day Wednesday, we'll be drying out under high pressure, with perhaps a lingering shower or two in morning for the Northeast Kingdom and seasonable afternoon highs in the 40s and lower 50s. Total precipitation amounts Tuesday through Wednesday will be as high as 0.10-0.30", with highest in the northern mountains and Northeast Kingdom. Total snow accumulations will likely be under an inch, limited to highest elevations.

KEY MESSAGE 2: There remains high uncertainty with the late week system, but trends have continued to suggest a track shift south and east of the region with the newest round of guidance. A broad closed upper low will gradually shift southeast Thursday into Friday with a pair of shortwaves digging well into the Mid-Atlantic. As these shortwaves interact with the parent upper low, the associated long wave will become negatively tilted amplifying the flow pattern along the east coast. Current guidance shows a strengthening subtropical jet off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic, with an associated tight thermal gradient south and east of southern New England. As expected, models show 850-700mb frontogenesis maximized in this thermal gradient along and south of southern New England. These factors do not bode confidence in this system bringing large scale impacts to Vermont, but raw guidance including statistical and AI- driven forecast suggest it is worth continuing to monitor. We recently highlighted preparedness for winter weather across New England, and so it is good to be ready whether or not something takes place. As of 2 PM on Monday, though, the GFS is the only model solution denoting an impactful system for Vermont and the north Country, with the Euro, CMC, and RRFS showing a more suppressed southerly system, keeping us on the northern periphery of the system. Regardless, temperatures by Friday will struggle to reach 40 across the area as will sit in cold subsidence under the upper low.

Perhaps more notable, regardless of how Thursday and Friday play out, will be the shift to northwest flow leading to some upslope snow showers Saturday and Sunday. There is higher confidence that regardless of the system track, that behind the upper low, winds will turn northwest, with cold advective upslope snow showers in the western facing slopes of the Greens and northern Adirondacks. Amounts will be uncertain due to differences in moisture profiles, but some wet snow in the mountains appears likely this weekend. NBM 72 hour probabilities of 1 inch or more in the eastern Greens and Adirondacks through Sunday are around 40-50%.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 18Z Tuesday...Northwest flow continues to bring low ceilings to the area as a cold front washes out over the area. Ceilings will generally hold steady where they are for the next 12-18 hours. MVFR ceilings between 2000- 2500ft agl will be the main flight restrictions, outside of SLK/EFK where terrain influences will lead to sporadic IFR cigs around 700- 900ft agl for the next 6-8 hours. There are some isolated showers and drizzle about the area with some PROB30s for our mountain terminals mainly. Little to no vsby reductions are anticipated with any shower, but some MVFR vsbys at EFK/SLK are noted. Northwest winds will occasionally be gusty 15-20knots in the wider valleys through 23-00Z or so before turning more westerly and tapering towards 5-10 knots by tomorrow morning. Mountain obscuration and icing aloft will be possible with temperatures around 4000ft or higher near 0C. By tomorrow morning, any IFR cigs will trend towards MVFR towards the end of this TAF package.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Veterans Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SN. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance RA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA, Chance SN. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA, Chance SN. Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SN, Chance RA. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA, Chance SN.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.