textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 220 PM EDT Thursday...

No significant changes we made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 220 PM EDT Thursday...

1. Isolated to scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two is expected this afternoon. Conditions turn drier and quieter by Friday and Saturday.

2. Seasonable temperatures next week and a couple shower chances.

DISCUSSION

As of 220 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Another shortwave is expected to move through this afternoon, and is currently centered over the St. Lawrence River. As opposed to yesterdays forecast, trends have decreased for any wider shower and thunderstorm coverage through this afternoon. Subsidence in the wake of convection from last night and seasonably cool temperatures in the low to mid 70s has capped much of the region this morning, despite 1500 J/kg of analyzed SBCAPE. To the northeast, thunderstorms have begun to fire in eastern Quebec where the instability gradient is maximized. This is further evident on the visible satellite where the most agitated cumulus are focused over the Northeast Kingdom, with lesser vertical motion evident across northern New York. Closer to home here, GOES-19 satellite depicts some dry air aloft in the 500-300mb layer with little improvement depicted upstream. Models have picked up this weaker shower trend quite nicely in the HRRR. Showers will mainly be focused over the Northeast Kingdom through this afternoon, with better chances closer toward 8 PM. the Storm Prediction Center has placed the NEK in a Marginal Risk for Severe Storms (level 1 out of 5) for this afternoon and evening. Some small hail to half an inch and briefly gusty winds up to 40 MPH may be possible under any stronger storms. Though the confidence in any widespread storms is low. Elsewhere an isolated terrain driven shower may be possible, in addition to a few isolated showers along the western lake breeze of Lake Champlain. Most locations today look to remain on the dry side. An isolated rumble of thunder in the Champlain Valley or higher terrain cannot be ruled out with decent instability in place, should a shower grow tall enough to break through the subsidence inversion. Shower chances will once again decrease after sunset with the loss of diurnal heating.

Troughing will slide east with surface high pressure building in by Friday. More calm and quieter conditions are expected through Saturday. Temperatures will be relatively seasonable in the mid to upper 70s. A radiational cooling night is increasingly likely Friday night with lows potentially dipping to the upper 40s to low to mid 50s. A few pocket low 40s may be possible in the decoupled protected valleys of the Adirondacks and eastern Greens. Saturday looks to be the best of the weekend with temperatures in the low to mid 70s, and mountain temperatures in the low to mid 60s. It will be a great day for outdoor activities with plenty of sun and little in the way of wind. Shower chances return by Sunday as weak northern and southern stream energies interact over the North Country. There is still some questions lingering on how much of an interaction there will be, with some model solutions depicting the southern stream breaking down and remaining south for a potentially drier Sunday. There does look to be a weak cold front associated with the northern stream of energy that has better confidence in at least some shower activity by Sunday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Large scale troughing will dominate next week, leading to seasonable temperatures and a few shower chances. Humidity will also be on the lower side, with dew points generally in the 50s and low 60s. After any lingering showers exit Monday, the next chance of rain does not look to be until late Wednesday from a cold front, and then over the weekend from another potential low pressure system. Highs look to be in the 70s and low 80s, and lows look to be in the 50s in most places. The coldest areas should see some temperatures in the 40s and the warmest places, notably along Lake Champlain, should see some lows in the 60s. Overall, it looks to be a pleasant and relatively uneventful stretch of summer weather.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 06Z Saturday...Mainly SKC with areas of fog and low stratus to develop in climatologically favored valleys between 06Z and 13Z. This includes KSLK and KMPV. Outside of those TAF sites, cannot rule out fog or low stratus developing in sites that picked up some rain today, especially KEFK. Although predominatly VFR overnight for KRUT, KPBG have introduced some fog and possiblr MVFR-IFR for KMSS and KBTV.

Fog will lift at sunrise and conditions will improve to widespread VFR after 13Z. shortwave may bring a brief chance of showers aft 18z across KMSS, KSLK and KRUT.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.