textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 254 AM EDT Saturday...

No significant changes have been made with this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 254 AM EDT Saturday...

1. Seasonal temperatures and periodic rain chances are expected across the region this weekend.

2. Drier and cooler weather expected for the beginning of next week.

3. Gradual warming trend to near to above normal temperatures mid to late next week with a few chances of light rain showers.

DISCUSSION

As of 254 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A weak warm front will lift north this morning which will increase cloud cover across the region. For far southern Vermont, enough moisture advection and convergence is expected to help drive some light rain showers through the late morning hours through late this afternoon. Rainfall totals will be rather lackluster with under two tenths of an inch of rain expected. Further north and west, a tight gradient in rainfall chances (and forecasted rain totals) is being forecast given the antecedent dry air in the low and mid-levels. For most, today will be dry and seasonably mild with highs in the 60s. While we don't quite have the criteria for issuing a special weather statement for cold water safety (temperatures are a few degrees too low), we want to encourage those who are recreating on area waterways to wear a life vest/PFD as water temperatures are currently in the low to mid 40s. These water temperatures can lead to shock and cause difficulties in swimming/floating. Please be safe if enjoying the great outdoors of Vermont and New York today. For Sunday, a pre-frontal trough ahead of a surface cold front will lead to a broken line of showers during the early morning hours. Models are showing that a lot of the low level moisture shifts eastward with the trough. Some sun is expected during the afternoon hours which will allow temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 60s before the cold front Sunday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Surface high pressure will build across the region early next week which should pave the way for some drier weather. However, we will still be under the influence of a strong 500 mb low located well north of the International Border. This will lead to period of cloudiness with colder temperatures advecting in from the Northwest. As we begin to head into the middle of May, we will see temperatures 10+ degrees below normal with frost possible both Monday and Tuesday night for much of the region.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Mid week we are still influenced by broad trof across NE CONUS and Canada with a chance of showers in the late Wed-thu timeframe but nothing really organized and heavy. Western CONUS ridging as it moves east is dampened by this semi-permanent trof but heights do rise with gradual warming conditions late week into the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 06Z Sunday...Mainly SKC but high-mid clouds already along I-90 corridor in NY moving ENE toward VT. Clouds will increase from the south during the day with light rain showers and potential MVFR reach KRUT and KMPV between 16-22z, but not at any other terminal. Afterwards...MVFR cigs likely to continue through 06z Sun.

Calm-light winds before 12z Sat then South-southeasterly 8-13 knots with gusts to 20 knots dropping off aft 00z Sun.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Monday Night: VFR. Patchy frost. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.