textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 245 PM EDT Sunday...

Chance of precipitation has increased and temps have decreased on Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 245 PM EDT Sunday...

1. Dry and warmer weather expected early this week with increasing chances of showers on Wednesday.

2. Warm and humid weather is expected towards the latter half of next week, with chances for showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

As of 245 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Fcst challenge tonight is timing of clearing and potential for fog after midnight. GOES-19 water vapor imagery shows pocket of mid lvl moisture exiting central/southern VT, while deep subsidence is quickly developing near the International Border. As sfc high pres builds into our cwa and drier air aloft mixes toward the sfc, expect clearing skies to develop this evening into the overnight hours. Initially bl winds are in the 5 to 15 knot range with some sounding data showing 15 to 25 knots in the 500 ft to 1000 ft agl, which does not support fog development. However, 1025mb high pres builds directly over SLK by 12z and feel bl should decouple allowing for several hours of shallow dense fog to develop. The highest probability based on winds, recent rainfall, and cross over temps being reached wl be acrs northern NY into parts of central/northern VT, including the NEK and parts of the CT River Valley. Temps wl range from mid/upper 30s SLK to near 50F CPV.

Monday and Tuesday...mid/upper lvl ridge builds directly overhead with sfc high pres slowly sliding off the East Coast. These two days wl feature classic North Country summer-time Chamber of Commerce weather with mostly sunny skies, comfortable humidity values and temps mid 70s to mid 80s. Given deep dry layer in place, expect a large swing between cool overnight lows and mild daytime highs especially Monday night into Tues. Near critically low humidity values are possible on Tues, but winds are mostly light and trrn driven.

For Weds...latest fcst shows mid/upper lvl ridge breaking down as s/w energy in the westerly flow aloft moves acrs our cwa. This energy combined with a warm frnt lifting from sw to ne acrs our cwa, wl produce a period of rain showers. The mid/upper lvl pattern becomes rather messy on Weds aftn with lingering s/w energy acrs our northern cwa and potential for a developing trof. This synoptic scale scenario, combined with pw values climbing btwn 1.25 and 1.50" could support several rounds of showers with increasing humidity values. However, with the clouds/precip, temps may hold in the 70s to near 80F most of the day, especially if warm frnt becomes draped acrs our northern cwa. Plenty of time to fine tune the fcst, but did trend a little wetter and cooler for Weds, given recent trends in our data.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A messy weather pattern is expected for the latter half of next week as southerly flow continues to usher in warm and humid conditions. High temperatures look to climb into the 80s and lower 90s, with dewpoints in the 60s making it feel quite muggy. With such a humid airmass across the region, there look to be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms to end the week, especially across northern New York where instability looks to be the greatest. Heading into the weekend, there still remains a large amount of uncertainty regarding pattern evolution with model solutions diverging this far out.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 18Z Monday...MVFR conditions currently prevail across the region, with some pockets of IFR lingering at KSLK and KEFK this afternoon. As precipitation continues to exit the region, conditions are expected to improve at all terminals over the next several hours, with widespread VFR conditions expected towards 21Z or so. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the remainder of the forecast period, with the exception of any fog development overnight as high pressure continues to build overhead. The latest guidance suggests the best potential for fog will be in the St. Lawrence Valley, impacting KMSS. Fog development cannot be ruled out at other terminals, such as KSLK and KEFK, but there is lower confidence at this time, although the best window for any fog development will be near sunrise. Breezy north to northwesterly winds will continue through much of the afternoon, with gusts in excess of 20 knots possible. Heading into the evening, winds will become more light and variable for the remainder of the forecast period.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.

MARINE

As of 245 PM EDT Sunday...

A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued into this evening for gusty northerly winds at 15 to 25 knots. Given the northerly direction the highest probability of reaching advisory level criteria will be across the central and southern portion of the lake thru sunset this evening. Waves generally 1 to 3 feet with some localized higher seas possible across the open waters.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.