textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 130 PM EST Friday...Issued a winter weather advisory for Rutland County for 2 to 6 inches of snow tonight into Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 130 PM EST Friday...

1. A weak system will bring light snow to the region late tonight into Saturday. Snow amounts in excess of four inches are expected in southern Vermont.

2. A couple rounds of heavy snow showers are possible Monday into Tuesday as colder air enters the region.

DISCUSSION

As of 130 PM EST Friday...

.KEY MESSAGE 1: A weak low pressure system will pass across the region late tonight into tomorrow, bringing chances for precipitation and additional snowfall to the region, as well as slightly warmer temperatures with some warm air advection. A warm front will lift across the region overnight into Saturday morning, bringing widespread light snowfall to the area. Maximum temperatures on Saturday range from upper 20s to mid 30s. Highest snowfall totals will be across southern Vermont, where there area winter weather advisories issued for parts of the area.

.KEY MESSAGE 2: A couple rounds of heavy snow showers are possible Monday into Tuesday as colder air enters the region. As a longwave trough slowly builds east Monday and Tuesday, a couple fronts push their way into the region. Heavy convective snow showers are possible, particularly across St. Lawrence and Franklin counties in NY where there will be lake enhancement. The most defined front looks to pass through Monday into Monday night. There, CAPE between 50 and 100 J looks possible with somewhat favorable FGEN. However, there will not be strong convergence or a strong surface wind shift behind the front. Overall, the potential for snow squalls needs to be watched but it does not appear to be a strong case. Behind the front, temperatures will drop fast and there will be strong winds. Apparent temperatures currently look to range in the -5 to -15 range for most areas from Monday night through Tuesday night. While it will feel quite cold, it is nothing atypical and right now it does not look to reach advisory criteria, though there is still a possibility of needing advisories outside the broad valleys.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 18Z Saturday...VFR conditions should prevail at all terminals through the rest of the day. Light snow showers move through the region late this evening through the day tomorrow. RUT should see prevailing snow for awhile, while there will be on and off snow showers for the rest of the terminals. However, BTV and PBG will likely only see a few snow showers. The snow will lower visibilities to MVFR and occasionally IFR. Ceilings will be VFR through most of the night, before they gradually fall late in the night and into the day tomorrow. Ceilings will likely reach MVFR at most places by tomorrow afternoon. Winds will trend toward being light and variable this evening, before they become southerly to southwesterly tonight and into the day tomorrow. Gusts in the 10-20 KT range are expected.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Martin Luther King Jr Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN. Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.

EQUIPMENT

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Saturday for VTZ011-019. NY...None.