textproduct: Burlington

SYNOPSIS

Low pressure system brings light snow and possibly mixed precipitation to our area this morning, then slides eastward and away from our area this afternoon. Some upslope snow showers will continue tonight into Thursday. Our weather pattern remains active through the week with several chances for precipitation, including a warmer system on Friday as the next low pressure system crosses to our northwest.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 220 AM EST Wednesday...Surface low pressure centered over Lake Ontario currently will track northeastward through the St Lawrence valley today. A secondary low will track along the New England coast. As this secondary low strengthens, it will mostly end the warm air advection and from that point warm nose aloft will go away and just snow will be expected from that point. This should occur by about 14z. Precipitation will become more showery and upslope enhanced as the day wears on, with snow showers lingering into the overnight hours as well. Soundings show very saturated low levels, so some drizzle or freezing drizzle will be possible as well as we lose the saturation in the snow growth zone. Maximum temperatures today will range from the lower to mid 30s, and be fairly steady through the day. Tonight temperatures will dip into the lower 20s to upper 20s. Snow showers will finally come to an end on Thursday as some drier air moves into the area, as well as some ridging at both the surface and aloft. Temperatures on Thursday afternoon will climb into the mid to upper 30s areawide.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 220 AM EST Wednesday...Temperatures on Thursday night will drop back below freezing areawide, which will serve to slow any melt that occurs on Thursday with minimum temperatures ranging from the upper teens in the Northeast Kingdom to upper 20s. Next low pressure system will begin to approach our area Thursday night, but precipitation should hold off until after 12z Friday. Non diurnal temperatures are likely Thursday night with overnight lows occurring early in the period. Precipitation will move into our area from the west on Friday. There will be a chance for some freezing rain east of the Greens early Friday morning, but this system will have pretty strong warm air advection, with highs on Friday likely to surpass the 40 degree mark areawide, therefore bulk of the precipitation will be in the form of rain. Winds will also become gusty out of the south Thursday night into Friday ahead of the frontal system. Jet will peak over the area during the day Friday, and with ongoing precipitation may not mix to their potential.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 241 AM EST Wednesday... * Another wintry mix in parts of the region is becoming more likely for Saturday night into early Sunday * Blustery, upslope snow showers Sunday night into Monday

Model agreement is fairly good for this time range with another double- barreled type low pressure system, with a deepening low moving north-northeastward to our west and a weaker low developing near southeastern New England Saturday night. As a result, a cold air damming pattern will result in possible snow in northern/northeastern Vermont, a light to moderate freezing rain event in the St. Lawrence Valley and portions of eastern Vermont and Adirondacks, and primarily rain favored elsewhere. Low level flow will initially have an easterly component, and trend southwesterly into the day Sunday as colder air aloft filters into the region. Gusty southwest winds are favored in western portions of northern New York where gusts were boosted above 30 MPH, and could realistically approach 40 MPH based on the latest guidance. The degree and duration of warming aloft Saturday night does not look quite as robust as with Friday's system, but again high elevations will become warm and breezy supporting additional, modest snowmelt. Precipitation amounts are relatively uncertain, especially in central/south central Vermont where 90th percentile rainfall is relatively high, near 1". While not a major event, a secondary low developing sooner/farther west would support a heavier rain scenario and more substantial impacts with rain over snow.

A typical winter pattern briefly sets up for late Sunday into Monday as low pressure occludes to our north with some upslope snow showers favored. This colder day looks like a blip in an otherwise less cold period, as model spread is fairly low for Tuesday suggesting high probability that temperatures will trend milder again with highs back into the 30s in most locations.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 12Z Thursday...Flight conditions will be mainly MVFR to IFR over the next 24 hours with combination of visibility and ceiling restrictions. Steady precipitation is winding down, with IFR conditions ending earliest in the Champlain Valley while some more snow fills in across southern portions of Vermont and northern New York on the backside of a broad area of low pressure. Localized gap winds at RUT should relax quickly over the next couple of hours, with light winds largely through the remainder of the period at all terminals. However, a subtle wind shift will gradually occur with winds trending northwesterly, supporting some upslope snow showers and/or lowering ceilings at sites like BTV between 20Z and 00Z. Ceilings overnight look generally steady state, except improving at PBG. Some BR and drizzle is favored at sites like EFK and SLK at times.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Patchy FZDZ. Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance FZRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA, Chance FZRA. Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA. Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely RA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA, Chance SN.

EQUIPMENT

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.