textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 229 AM EDT Wednesday...

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 229 AM EDT Wednesday...

1. Rain showers Thursday into Friday with snow showers possible on the front and back ends.

2. Brief cold spell early this weekend, then becoming warmer. Unsettled weather continues with multiple chances for precipitation early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 229 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A warm front moves through tonight into tomorrow morning, bringing the chance for a few snow showers. A slushy coating is possible across northern areas and the higher terrain but precipitation will be limited and temperatures will be around and above freezing during its passage. A warm nose will also build in so in any pockets of remaining below freezing surface temperatures, notably the St. Lawrence Valley, a brief period of freezing rain is possible. Ice accumulations would be limited to a couple hundreths of an inch, but it would still be enough to potentially cause slippery travel on untreated surfaces. A dry slot looks to develop for much of the day on Thursday, though lingering showers are possible across northern areas. Temperatures rise well above freezing on Thursday, likely even in the mountains. This looks to melt most of the snow outside the higher elevations. A round of rain will pass through Thursday evening and night with the cold front, and could briefly end as snow. The rain and snowmelt will cause river rises, but with QPF currently looking to be around a half inch and dew points mostly topping out in the upper 30s and low 40s, flooding is not expected. However, as shown in the ensemble river forecasts, the East Branch of the Ausable, Mad and Winooski Rivers could approach action stage. Ensemble guidance is converging on a slightly faster passage of the rain and some is beginning to keep the heaviest farther south, so the maximum stage has decreased slightly and it would not be surprising if this trend continues. The higher end ensemble members are trending toward the means that do not bring any rivers to action. Gusty southerly winds are expected on Thursday, especially in the Champlain Valley due to channeling and in the northern Adirondacks due to downsloping, but they should be too weak to cause power outages or damage.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Friday and Saturday will quite cold before temperatures warm up Sunday onwards. 850 mb temps will fall to -20C by Friday night behind the cold front. The coldest temperatures during this stretch will occur Friday night/Saturday morning, when overnight lows will reach the single digits for much of the area, and low to mid teens for the valleys. These temperatures are around 10-20 degrees below normal for this time of year, but should remain around 5-15 degrees above daily record lows. Temperatures will warm back to around normal by Sunday, remaining near or above normal for early next week.

Temperatures aside, the overall weather pattern will remain active with continued fast northwesterly flow aloft. This leaves us open to multiple shortwaves moving through, bringing several chances for and some breezy conditions, though no high impact systems are forecast for the next week.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 06Z Thursday...Radar continues to show scattered light snow showers moving through the area early this morning, however observations show most of these snow showers are not making it to the surface. Have included some PROB30s to account for a brief snow shower, but other than that conditions will be mainly dry for the remainder of the day. While ceilings are starting off widespread VFR as of 06Z, ceilings will lower through 12Z and some periods of MVFR are possible at KBTV, KSLK and KMSS as per forecast soundings. Winds will generally be west/northwest this morning, becoming light and variable during the afternoon today. This evening winds will switch to south after 00Z, with areas of low level wind shear expected after 03Z as a 30-40 knot southwesterly low-level jet moves in. There is one exception to the conditions listed above...KMSS will see locally northeasterly winds developing after 00Z. This will pull in some locally below freezing air at the surface, and open a brief window for some potential freezing rain after 03Z. Coverage will not be widespread, and have omitted from the TAF this far out given low probabilities through 06Z Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely RA. Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA, Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SN. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

EQUIPMENT

The NOAA Weather Radio Transmitter on Mt. Mansfield has been fixed.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.