textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 226 AM EDT Wednesday...

No significant changes were made with this forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 226 AM EDT Wednesday...

1. Dry through mid week with near critical fire weather conditions possible, especially on Thursday.

2. Widespread rain showers expected on Friday with a cold frontal passage.

3. Seasonable and mostly dry weather is expected for the weekend. Additional chances for rainfall are expected heading into early next week, along with unseasonably warm temperatures to start next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 226 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A very dry airmass will settle over the region today as high pressure crests overhead. Dewpoints this morning are in the single digits and teens, and even as low as 0F at KSLK. Skies are mostly clear and will remain so through the day, leading to ample sunshine. Winds remain light today under the high, less than 10 mph and terrain driven. Highs will be close to normal for early April with most spots warming into the 40s. Have continued trending toward the NBM 10th percentile for this afternoon's dewpoints, though there's still a bit of uncertainty just how dry we'll be able get given yesterday's snow and related melt today. This results in minimum relative humidity values near critical values, in the 20s to around 35 percent, though this may be a touch on the low side.

After another dry night tonight, fire weather concerns only increase tomorrow. High pressure will shift to the east, placing us under increasing south/southwest flow. Note the latest NAM 3km has 925mb winds of 40 to 55 kt in the St Lawrence and Champlain Valleys and along the northern slopes of the Adirondacks and Greens. As daytime heating occurs, anticipate at least some of these higher winds will get mixed to the surface; gusts of 25 mph to 35 mph seem reasonable, with upwards of 40 mph in the aforementioned areas due to channeling and/or downsloping. Model soundings indicate mixing of drier air as well, so while the south flow will gradually increase moisture, have continued the trend of lowering dewpoints, particularly in VT where higher PWATs associated with an approaching cold front will be slower to arrive. A few showers may try to bubble up over far western portions of our forecast area late Thursday, but expect much of this will remain on the Canadian side of the international border. Any showers on the US side of the St Lawrence Valley will likely be nothing more than virga or perhaps a few sprinkles at most. Highs on Thursday will easily warm into the 50s, with the wider valleys and northern slopes of the Adirondacks likely topping out at 60F or better.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front will slowly push southward out of Canada Thursday night and eventually across our region on Friday. Given the very dry airmass that is in place, expect the front's arrival Thursday evening to just amount to a few isolated showers in the St Lawrence Valley. Otherwise, Thursday night will be dry under partly to mostly cloudy skies. We get a better surge of moisture on Friday, and this combined with daytime heating will be enough to allow more robust showers to develop. Showers should become fairly widespread along/ahead of the front, leading to an area of fairly steady precipitation that translates southward/southeastward through the day. This area of showers will exit our region around midnight or so Friday night, with perhaps a few lingering showers over the mountains overnight. Total rainfall will generally range from a tenth of an inch to around a third of an inch.

Other than the showers, the front will also have impacts on Friday's temperatures. The day will start with the front stretching somewhere in the vicinity of the St Lawrence Valley and/or northwestern Adirondacks, with colder air following along in its wake through the day. Therefore, northern areas will be relatively chilly, topping out in the upper 40s to low 50s. Central/southern VT, meanwhile, will have more time to warm up on south winds ahead of the front, allowing them to reach into the upper 50s to low/mid 60s. Temperatures will cool into the 30s Friday night, so any lingering showers may turn over to snow later in the night/early Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 3: A frontal boundary will move out of the region Friday night into early Saturday morning, with seasonable and mostly dry weather expected for most of the weekend with high pressure building into the region. Temperatures on Saturday will be cool to start, but high temperatures will warm into the 40s and low 50s, which is near normal for this time of year. Sunday looks to be several degrees warmer, with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. A warming trend is expected heading into next week and high pressure shifts eastward, with southerly flow ushering in warmer air. High temperatures early next week look to warm into the mid to upper 60s, to even near 70 for some locations. Additional chances for precipitation will be possible early next week, although there is still some uncertainty as to the exact location of where the boundary sets up and how widespread precipitation will be, which may inhibit how warm temperatures climb.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 06Z Thursday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast period as high pressure continues to build into the region, bringing mostly clear skies. The only exceptions to the VFR conditions are some lingering MVFR clouds at KRUT, which are expected to erode very shortly, and the potential for any mist/fog development overnight. Some guidance is suggesting the development of some mist towards sunrise given the calm winds overnight, especially at KSLK, however the drier air moving into the region may limited any development and given the low confidence it has been left out of the forecast for now. Otherwise, VFR conditions and clear skies will prevail throughout the forecast period. Winds will generally be calm or terrain-influenced this morning, 5 knots or less, increasing out of the south/southwest after 15Z or so, but generally remaining under 10 knots for most terminals.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

EQUIPMENT

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.