textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 1047 AM EDT Saturday...

A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued for the Broad Waters and Southern Waters of Lake Champlain. See Marine Section for more details.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 233 AM EDT Saturday...

1. A Nor'easter will continue to move along the coast, bringing chances for showers and breezy winds this weekend, but the strongest impacts will remain over southern New England.

2. Seasonable, mainly dry weather continues through late week

DISCUSSION

As of 233 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A Nor'easter centered off the Mid-Atlantic coast will be the main weather feature this weekend, with our region on the periphery of the system and more impactful weather further south towards the coast. Several rain bands will move across southern Vermont and try to make their way further north, but drier air across the region will limit their progress and how much precipitation is expected. Throughout the weekend, southern Vermont will see the most precipitation after several rounds of showers, but further north look to remain drier. The system will slowly exit the region later this weekend into the start of next week, bringing greater precipitation chances for Sunday into Monday before drier conditions return towards Tuesday.

In addition to the precipitation, a strong jet looks to bring gusty winds to the region, particularly tonight into Sunday, with the greatest concern across the western slopes in southern Vermont and summit levels. Temperatures will be on the cooler side as well, especially for Sunday and Monday with clouds and periods of showers expected, especially across southern and eastern Vermont.

KEY MESSAGE 2: No impactful weather is expected for the middle to later portions of next week. The Nor'easter currently affecting southern New England and the Mid-Atlantic region will exist in a much weakened state by Tuesday night and be in the process of exiting northeast into the westerlies away from our region as skies trend partly cloudy. Thereafter, weak high pressure mainly controls regional weather conditions for the Wed-Thu time frame with daily highs warming into the upper 60s to lower 70s. This morning's GFS depiction of a rather sharp northern stream trough feature and scattered/numerous showers passing through the area Wednesday evening appears overdone. This solution has little support from other output which seems reasonable given weak baroclinicity evident in 925-850 hPa thermal profiles and I've offered mainly a dry weather through this time frame. By Friday a somewhat more pronounced cold front appears poised to swing through the region. Again, moisture is rather starved with this feature, so precipitation chances will be generally held in the 20-40% range. Behind the front, slightly cooler air arrives for next weekend, but values should remain within 5 degrees of seasonal early October norms.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 18Z Sunday...No aviation impacts through the day today. Clouds will slowly lower in the overnight hours as the nor'easter currently off the coast of New Jersey approaches our CWA. As the system approaches, we will see increasing wind shear especially at RUT and MPV. Ceilings will lower to MVFR for our southern terminals by tomorrow morning. RUT could see some periods of heavier rain during the day tomorrow, but other terminals should see only light rain and minimal impact.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE

A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for the southern waters and the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Winds will increase today to 15 to 25 knots, with gusts to 30 knots, especially over southern portions of the lake. Winds will build to 1 to 3 feet today, highest over southern Lake Champlain. Winds and waves will peak overnight tonight at 20 to 30 knots with waves 2 to 4 feet, especially in the early morning hours on Sunday. Winds will diminish through the day Sunday, becoming around 10 knots by the evening. Waves will also subside to 1 to 3 feet by Sunday evening, then further subside to 1 to 2 feet Sunday night.

Winds will be lighter and waves lower further north over the northern waters of Lake Champlain, where winds will peak around 20 knots tonight and waves will stay in the 1 to 2 foot range.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.