textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 236 AM EDT Friday...

Confidence has increased slightly in some isolated to scattered light snow showers Saturday into Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 259 AM EDT Friday...

1. Much colder and mainly dry conditions expected Today into this weekend, with many locations remaining below freezing through Sunday morning.

2. Unsettled weather with multiple chances for precipitation expected, along with warming temperatures for early to mid next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 259 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front will continue to slide through the region this morning leading to a tapering off of any lingering rain or snow showers across the region. Behind the front for the rest of today, high temperatures will struggle to reach the freezing mark with values in the upper 20s to low 30s under strong northwesterly caa. Southern Windsor and Rutland Counties may be able to break into the mid 30s with some additional clearing skies and better diurnal heating profiles. Breezy conditions this morning with gusts between 20-25 mph, will subside by this afternoon as we trend towards lighter northerly winds 10-15 mph. With the breezes, feels like temperatures this morning into the early afternoon will be in the single digits to teens. Regardless, widespread clearing skies from mid to upper level drying today, with a March sun angle, should make it feel slightly warmer than the high temperatures would suggest.

Friday night will, in all likelihood, be the last true cold night of the season as lows dip to the single digits for most locations outside of southern Vermont and the Champlain Valley where lows will fall to the low to mid teens. A few sheltered locations in the Adirondacks and far northern Northeast Kingdom could potentially near 0 degrees. Lows in general will not be record breaking by any means, but rather 10 degrees below average. This unseasonable cold air is supported by -15C to -19C 925 and 850mb temperatures. With

High pressure will build in for Saturday keeping the region under unseasonably cool conditions with highs around 10-15 degrees below normal. Highs will once again struggle to reach the freezing mark areawide with highs in the mid 20s to low 30s, as northwest flow continues to keep cool Canadian air funneled into the area. Northwest flow will become breezy on Saturday which will help feels like temperatures Notably, while there is moderate confidence in calm weather on Saturday for most locations, lapse rates will be relatively steep with some energy riding along the northern periphery of the high pressure, which could lead to some isolated convective light snow showers. Confidence is low in shower activity given the high and dry air across the area, and any showers would not cause any impacts as accumulations would be minimal with limited moisture, bit some isolated chances (25-35% chance), mainly in the higher terrain of the Adirondacks are possible. Light snow showers (15-25% chance) will continue into Sunday as a warm front pass through north of the region, but moisture will remain limited. Temperatures Sunday with the warm front will rebound from Saturday with highs into the 40s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: The latest forecast from WPC shows the highest probability of precip late Tues through Weds with pops in the 55% to 70% range. The first round of precip is associated with sharp warm front lifting southwest to northeast acrs our cwa, along with a strengthening 850mb jet of 50 to 70 knots. This wl result in gusty ridgetop winds of 45 to 55 knots on Tues into Weds, with some downslope shadowing in the qpf fields likely acrs the CPV and lower CT River Valley. Latest 00z GFS is very warm for late Tues into Weds, with a non-dirunal temp trend likely, especially given winds and clouds/precip. Progged 925mb temps are in the 12-15C range on the GFS, but cooler on the ECMWF as boundary remains draped acrs our region with limited success breaking out into the warm sector. Current temps by WPC for our area show highs mid 40s to near 50F for Tues and well into the 50s for Weds. If the GFS was to verify highs Weds could be well into the 60s with some lower 70s possible, something to watch. Much cooler air filters into the region on Thurs into Friday with another system approaching the area by Friday. Highs generally cool back to normal on Thurs and Friday with values in the upper 30s to near 50F, depending upon your location. Overall the probability of significant or highly impactful wx during the days 4 thru 7 forecast period is low attm.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 12Z Saturday...Conditions are quickly improving across our taf sites this morning as surface high pressure builds into the area. Lingering MVFR cigs at MPV/EFK/SLK and PBG will become VFR at all sites by 15z this morning. Brisk north to northwest winds prevail at 10 to 15 knots with gusts 15 to 25 knots thru 20z, before slowly dissipating toward sunset.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHSN, Slight chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.

EQUIPMENT

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.