textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 223 PM EDT Monday...

No significant changes have been made to the forecast this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 223 PM EDT Monday...

1. After widespread rain this morning, warmer and drier conditions are expected through Tuesday. Tuesday will also be breezy, with gusts of 25 to 40 mph possible across the St. Lawrence Valley and northern Adirondacks.

2. Seasonable temperatures and a few chances for showers are expected for the middle of the week.

3. Seasonably cool with unsettled weather, primarily into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 223 PM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Drier air continues to move into the region behind the exiting boundary from this morning, ushering in warmer and drier conditions, with some breaks in the clouds expected this afternoon. As high pressure continues to nose into the region tonight, some fog development will be possible given the recent rainfall, particularly across eastern Vermont where winds look to remain lighter.

Warm and dry conditions are expected to persist through the day tomorrow as high pressure centered to our south continues to nose into the region. High temperatures tomorrow look to climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s by tomorrow afternoon. In addition to the warm temperatures, breezy conditions look to develop as a strong low level jet moves into the region tomorrow afternoon and evening ahead of a weak boundary, with forecast soundings showing efficient mixing. The strongest winds will be focused in the St. Lawrence Valley and northern Adirondacks, where the gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Upper level low pressure centered over the Canadian Maritimes will continue to keep the region under northwesterly flow for the middle of the week. Occasional chances for showers will be possible as several shortwaves rotate about the upper low, but exact confidence in timing, intensity, and placement is too difficult to pinpoint at this time. Any showers that to develop should remain fairly isolated to scattered, with a complete washout not expected for either Wednesday or Thursday. Seasonable temperatures are expected Wednesday afternoon, with highs in the 70s to near 80. A cooling trend looks to begin as we head later in the week, with high temperatures in the 60s for Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 3: No significant changes in regards to the overall synoptic pattern heading into the latter portion of this week and the weekend. The system mid week will become blocked across the northern Canadian Maritimes and north Atlantic leading to continued troughing for our region into the weekend. Global ensembles support persistent upper level troughing extending all the way from Greenland as an upper low cyclonically rotates near Newfoundland keeping temperatures seasonably cool with cloudy skies for much of the late week and weekend. Cyclonic flow will lead to several shortwave passages into the weekend, with the most amplified of which likely Friday night into Saturday. 500mb height anomalies will be overhead Friday into Saturday with cool northerly flow supporting a closed low passage to start the weekend. Notably, this closed low originates well north of the Hudson Bay with temperatures resembling that of early to mid spring or mid to late fall, rather than the end of May/early June. Highs Friday and Saturday will be about 10 to 15 degrees below normal with values in the low to mid 60s, and lows in the low 40s. Overnight lows may be slightly warmer across the St. Lawrence and Champlain Valleys due to water temperatures helping to moderate air temperatures. These lower temperatures will be accompanied by scattered to widespread shower and rain activity Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. The GFS denotes the 540 thickness line will be over the Adirondacks which is uncommon, but not unheard of for this time of year. As such, some showers may have some isolated small hail or graupel with mid to upper level cooling and stagnant sfc temperatures, leading to weak instability as the low moves overhead, mainly if showers form during the afternoon. Friday night into Saturday unfortunately looks to be raw with the cooling temperatures, rain, and some breezy conditions to 10 to 15 mph winds. Beyond Saturday morning, troughing looks to remain in place towards next week with daily shower chances, particularly across Northeast Vermont which will be closer to the axis of the troughing. Perhaps some drying and clearer skies will be possible in the St. Lawrence Valley Sunday, as temperatures areawide attempt to trend back to normal for the start of next week.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 18Z Tuesday...Improving conditions from a mix of IFR/MVFR to VFR at all terminals from the 21-00Z time frame onward as high pressure builds into the region. Outside a lingering light shower/sprinkle at KEFK through 21Z, dry weather is expected. Winds light and generally less than 10 knots through the period. Modest confidence on some patchy mist/fog early Tuesday morning in the 06-11Z time range, with best threat at KSLK/KRUT.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. Isolated SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. Scattered SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday: MVFR. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.