textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 258 AM EDT Saturday...

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issues for portions of northern New York and Vermont from 8 PM Saturday through 8 AM Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 258 AM EDT Saturday...

1. Another clipper to move across the North Country and northern New York Saturday night into Monday morning.

2. Seasonally cool and drier to start next week.

3. Active weather continues Wednesday through Friday with two systems projected to move through the region during that time frame.

DISCUSSION

As of 258 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: We remain in a very active zonal longwave pattern with periodic shortwave energy helping to develop weak surface low pressure systems. Another one of these systems is expected to move across the Great Lakes and towards northern New York Saturday night with widespread snowfall expected to fall. Models continue to flip- flop on whether the low center tracks over us, south of us, or north of us which unfortunately has serious implications on the forecast. The latest 00Z ensemble guidance is finally showing some clustering with the low center tracking south of our forecast area. For us, that would lead to a more widespread snowfall event with some rain mixing into the wider valleys during the afternoon hours on Sunday. However, subtle changes in the low track could either increase or decrease snowfall amounts as more rain and warmer temperatures could work into the region. However, confidence is growing that we will see 2 to 4 inches of snow in the Champlain and St. Lawrence Valleys while the Adirondacks and central/eastern Vermont will generally see 3 to 6 inches of snow. Some upslope is expected across the western slopes of the Green Mountains where summit sites could see 6 to 10 inches of new snow. Thus, we have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Adirondacks and central/eastern Vermont from 8 PM Saturday through 8 AM Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Following the weekend clipper, strong surface high pressure is expected to situate across the region. Subsidence from the building high pressure will help dry out the low to mid levels leading to a break in the recent active precipitation regime. However, we will remain under the influence of an upper level trough with anomalously cool temperatures at the 850 mb and 500 mb levels. This will help keep temperatures about 5 degrees below seasonal normals but nothing too atypical for late March.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Temperatures are likely to trend a few degrees below seasonal average mid week into the weekend as the storm track remains draped across the Northeast under broad cyclonic 500mb flow. This pattern favors fast moving waves and clipper-style systems. Guidance points to above freezing daytime temperatures for area valleys and overnight lows below freezing - a good cycle for maple production. Models continue to point to a potentially impactful system to move through Thursday, but system trajectory will be key. For now, kept daytime rain and rain/snow chances with overnight snow showers. The biggest limiting factor for this system will be its speed at which it moves through, but as we saw yesterday, frontal character matters - so we will continue to watch evolution in case strong forcing signatures develop. Another wave will quickly follow on Friday with additional chances for elevation dependent snowfall.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 12Z Sunday...Overnight IFR conditions are lifting as expected with a transition to mainly MVFR for most terminals. The holdout has been RUT where some light snow, mist, OVC004 are ongoing' this should improve by 15Z. Elsewhere, continued CIG improvement is expected with VFR conditions by 18Z. 02-06Z the next round of snow begins with CIGs/VIS lowering and IFR becoming more prevalent 08-12Z.

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite SN, Definite RA. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SN. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SN. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA.

EQUIPMENT

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Monday for VTZ003-004-006>008-010-017>021. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Monday for NYZ027-030-031-034.