textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 221 AM EDT Friday...

No major changes to the forecast with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 221 AM EDT Friday...

1. Dry and seasonably warm weather will continue into the weekend under high pressure.

2. Unsettled weather returns next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 221 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: High pressure continues to build into the Northeast early this morning, resulting in clear skies and temperatures dropping quickly into the 50s and lower 60s. By the end of the night, we should have widespread temperatures as low as the 40s and 50s, making for a crisp Friday morning. This will also result in some patchy fog in the typical valley spots of the Adirondacks and central/eastern Vermont by sunrise. Today will be a beautiful seasonably warm day with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s and comfortable dew points in the upper 40s to mid 50s, then Friday night will be a repeat of favorable radiational cooling conditions with lows in the mid 40s to around 60 F, plus some valley fog. The weekend is also shaping up to be mainly dry and warm with widespread 80s each afternoon as high pressure shifts east of the region and dew points reach the mid 50s to mid 60s in light southerly flow. On Sunday, a shortwave and axis of moisture approach northern New York, potentially producing a shower and thunderstorm or two across the northern Adirondacks. Overall, coverage will be limited by the lingering dry airmass. Chance of precipitation is around 20-40%. Unsettled weather returns early next week as an upper level trough brings diurnal rain and/or thunderstorm chances, though warm weather looks to linger into Monday with southerly flow.

KEY MESSAGE 2: An omega block will develop across the US next week as the Bermuda High builds northward across the Atlantic, with a large ridge will build across the western half of the US. With that, East Coast of the US will be under an upper level trough which will lead to chances for showers and thunderstorms most afternoons. Day time temperatures will also slightly below seasonal normals with most areas in the 70s for most of the week. Tuesday appears to be the most active day of the upcoming week as a cold front should slowly push through the region. Models suggest a developing low along the front line just to our northwest could slow the system and prolong it as it passes through our region. This could lead to some periods of moderate rainfall but rainfall rates themselves will not be too impressive given the deeper moisture will be shunted much further south and east. After the front passes on Wednesday, we will see steep mid-level lapse rates due to cooler air sinking south which will support afternoon showers and maybe a rumble of thunder. The back end of the week looks to be drier as some weak ridging moves in and pushes the longwave trough off shore finally.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 06Z Saturday...VFR conditions overnight with just a small (10-15%) probability of IFR or lower conditions near sunrise at MPV/SLK in some shallow ground fog. However, given dry air at the surface, still some boundary layer winds, and 2 days removed from rainfall, feel potential is low at this time. Otherwise, any lingering mid level clouds will dissipate with mostly clear skies overnight and light south-southwest winds 2 to 6 knots. VFR conditions continue on Friday with south to southwest winds 5 to 10 knots as high pressure prevails.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.