textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 234 AM EDT Friday...

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 234 AM EDT Friday...

1. Dry weather continues into the start of next week.

2. The next storm system to bring widespread rainfall may arrive Tuesday heralding in a period of unsettled conditions through the remainder of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 234 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: An omega type block remains in place through the weekend, leading to a consistent stretch of weather. The ridging will remain over the region, so dry and sunny weather will generally prevail. Relative humidity values should drop into the 25 to 35 percent range for most areas during the afternoons, but lighter winds will lessen fire weather concerns. After northerly gusts in the 10 to 20 mph range today, winds will generally be around and under 10 mph over the weekend. Channeling will enhance winds in the Champlain Valley today and in the St. Lawrence Valley tomorrow. A very dry layer will persist above the boundary layer through the weekend and efficient mixing could cause dew points to be slightly lower than forecast on any given day, though lower guidance was already blended into the forecast. Any fire weather concerns aside, this stretch will feature great spring weather to get outside. While temperatures will drop to around and below freezing most nights, they will rise rapidly into the 50s and 60s during the days with abundant sunshine.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Models have been consistent with a pattern shift beginning Tuesday for the Northeast,projecting the approach of a system that is favored to develop under leeside cyclogenesis in Colorado on Sunday. Biggest question remains timing of the low. NBM is somewhat discordant with deterministic solutions bringing the system in Tuesday afternoon while other guidance favors a delay more towards Tuesday night. Timing of the system will be critical for fire weather concerns. Current projections point to some concerns with dry conditions in place coincident with some gusty winds whereas a slight delay will tamp concerns down a little. WPC has kept closer to the NBM output with highs in the mid 60s and moderately strong southerly winds in the Champlain Valley with sustained speeds 15-20 mph. Given the strength of warm air advection, it's seemingly more likely that temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer, especially on the northern slopes of the Adirondacks with highs pushing 70-75 degrees for broader valleys. Once the system does move in, it's plausible that most locations will see a wetting rain, but totals remain uncertain as supporting synoptic energy may be lifting northward as it moves though.

Past this system Wednesday through the remainder of the week, models favor the Northeast to remain under the influence of a large upper low with steep lapse rates in place. The late April/early May sun angle will support surface temperatures in the 50s and 60s while 850 temperature progs are at and below freezing. Showers will be probable under this regime and may be more numerous than the current forecast. These details will be sussed out in later forecasts.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 06Z Saturday...Persistent VFR will continue through the forecast period. The main threat to aviation will be some lower end northerly gusts this afternoon. Average max gusts will generally be around 20kts, but could see some max gusts around 25kts at BTV and PBG in the 18-21Z time frame.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.