textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 142 AM EST Tuesday...

No significant changes made.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 142 AM EST Tuesday...

1. Unsettled weather pattern continues for today with showers likely, before drier weather returns for Wednesday.

2. The probability (55%-80%) of a widespread precipitation event has increased Thursday into Friday with some wet snow accumulation possible for the higher terrain, exact impacts still to be determined. 3. Seasonably cool and trending drier through the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 142 AM EST Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: GOES-19 water vapor imagery is indicating compact s/w energy over the northern Great Lakes this morning, which wl dive southeast toward our cwa today. This mid lvl forcing, combined with a pocket of enhanced 850 to 500mb moisture and developing 925mb to 850mb northwest upslope flow wl help produce areas of showers, especially this aftn. Greatest probabilities (80-95%) wl be over the favorable upslope areas of the northern dacks and central/northern Greens btwn 18z and 00z today. Progged rh fields show deepest moisture/lift near the International Border and mtns today, with much less favorable dynamics and moisture over southern VT. Did note a weak pocket of instability over the SLV with MUCAPE of 150-300 J/kg, which per the progged HRRR composite reflectivity could produce a few embedded heavier convective element with maybe some graupel. Snow level wl be near summit level, given 850mb temps near 0C with minimal impacts anticipated. Highs generally range from the mid 30s summits to lower 50s warmer valleys under mostly cloudy skies. No impactful wx is anticipated tonight into Weds with temps hovering near normal.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A strong synoptic scale system is expected to produce a widespread precip event acrs our cwa Thursday into Friday with some wet snow possible over the higher terrain, but potential hazards/impacts still to be determined. 00z guidance, including the GFS ensemble and associated AI-GFS prog a deepening and closing off full latitude trof over the Mid Atlantic/NE CONUS late Thurs into Friday. Meanwhile initial sfc low tracks from the Ohio Valley on Thurs morning and redevelops over the Mid Atlantic/SNE coast by Thurs aftn. The primary issue for snow lovers like myself is the lack of cold air initially, especially with no arctic or modified arctic high pres located to our north/northeast. So we are going to need very high precip rates to help bring slightly cooler air toward the sfc and elevation to see accumulating snowfall, especially with bl temps btwn 2-3C per latest GFS sounding data at BTV. Sounding data indicates very marginal thermal profiles, especially on Thursday with progged 850mb temps hovering near 0C and 925mb 0 to 1C, which supports snow levels above 3000 feet and minimal impacts. However, as system pulls away, winds shift to the northwest and llvl caa develops on backside, allowing thermal profiles to cool and support some accumulating snowfall. The challenge is how quickly does the cooler air advect on backside and does moisture linger around to support accumulation snowfall. At this time, the highest probability (60-80%) of several inches of accumulating snowfall would be acrs the Dacks and Green mtns of VT, Thurs night thru Friday. GFS is very slow with lifting mid/upper lvl circulation eastward with sfc weakness/invert trof lingering into Saturday. This idea would support additional snowfall possible, especially trrn. For now have high probability of precip (55-80%) for most of our cwa Thurs into Friday with some (1-3") wet snow accumulation acrs the High Peaks and Spine of the Green Mountains. Temps wl be trending at or slightly below normal by Friday with highs upper 20s summits to lower 40s valleys and lows mid 20s to mid 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Upper level troughing will prevail for much of the weekend, leading to a mostly cloudy and cool stretch. Upslope showers are likely Saturday, potentially lingering part of the way into Sunday. However, any organized synoptic precipitation will be done. Snow levels currently look to be somewhere around 1,000 ft, but they could make it all the way down into the Champlain Valley during heavier showers or at night when it is cooler. Several inches will be possible in the mountains, but anything in the valleys would likely be lighter and have a hard time accumulating. NBM probabilities of 3+ inches are in the 20-40 percent range in the mountains, but these are likely underdone as its long range components are too coarse to fully depict terrain effects and relevant static stability. Heading into next week, a large surface high pressure looks to build into the region, bringing increasing sunshine and slightly moderating temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 06Z Wednesday...A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions currently exist due to low ceilings and they should trend relatively steady for the rest of the night, though there will be some minor bouncing up and down. SLK is an outlier and will likely drop into the IFR range at times with ceilings forming in the 600-900 FT range. A few showers and areas of drizzle will be around but they are not expected to significantly lower visibility, except at SLK where some light snow could mix in and reduce the visibility into the MVFR range. During the day today, ceilings will trend up a bit, and most terminals should reach VFR. Scattered slightly heavier showers will move through during the afternoon and evening, and a brief drop to MVFR visibility will be possible at any terminal. Heading into the evening, ceilings will drop slightly, but still range in the MVFR to VFR range. Winds will be northwesterly to westerly for the rest of the night, becoming westerly to southwesterly for the day today. Gusts in the 10-20 KT range are expected today, with gusts up to 25 KT possible.

Outlook...

Veterans Day: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Thursday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly IFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance RA, Chance SN. Friday: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA, Chance SN. Friday Night: MVFR. Chance SN, Chance RA. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance SHSN.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.