textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 216 PM EDT Thursday...

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 216 PM EDT Thursday...

1. Dry and seasonably warm weather will continue through the end of the week as high pressure settles over the region.

2. Unsettled weather returns next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 216 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Surface high pressure is beginning to build into the region from the west, where is is currently centered over the Great Lakes. A few diurnally driven fair weather cumulus clouds have developed over the higher terrain and downslope regions of the Adirondacks, but otherwise the rest of today will remain clear and pleasant. Breezy conditions on the periphery of the high will weaken towards this evening with winds trending towards calm Our incoming airmass for the weekend will be quite dry with relative humidities falling to near 25-30% with dewpoints into the upper 40s to near 50 tomorrow and Saturday. Given how low dewpoints will be with clear overnight skies, good radiational cooling is expected tonight and tomorrow night with temperatures cooling to the upper 40s to upper 50s (warmer locations near the Champlain Valley due to the warmer lake temperatures). A few favored locations in the Adirondacks and eastern Vermont could even lower to the low to mid 40s tonight and Friday night. As the center of the high moves overhead Friday into Saturday, winds will remain calm, with light channeled flow in the Champlain Valley which could bring some light southerly breezes around 5-10 mph. Temperatures will gradually warm tomorrow and Saturday with highs increasing towards the upper 80s by Saturday. Thankfully, humidity will remain low with an unfavorable moisture advection pattern. A pattern change will begin late Sunday with the approach of a weak cold front as our pattern turns more troughy into next week. General expectations are that the bulk of any precipitation will hold off until Sunday night, though a few isolated terrain driven showers may be possible Sunday afternoon in the Adirondacks.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A weak omega block is slated to develop across the US for much of next week as the Bermuda high across the western Atlantic builds northward with a strengthening ridge also expected across the west/central US. This will leave New England underneath an upper level trough which will likely bring diurnal rain and/or thunderstorm chances with temperatures at or slightly below seasonal normals. Monday and Tuesday right now appear to be the wettest days of the upcoming week as a cold front should slowly push through the region as a lack of deep layer flow will struggle to push the front eastward. This could lead to a period of moderate rainfall but rainfall rates themselves will not be too impressive given the deeper moisture will be shunted much further south and east. Behind the cold front on Wednesday, we will see steep mid-level lapse rates due to cooler air sinking south which will support diurnal showers and maybe a rumble of thunder. WPC does have us in a marginal ERO for Monday but the lack of deep moisture will likely preclude any flooding potential.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 18Z Friday...VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Some mid- level cumulus has developed today due to plentiful sunshine with these clouds expected to dissipate following sunset leading to mostly clear skies overnight into Friday morning. Gusty south/southwest winds are expected to continue through 23Z-00Z with light and variable winds expected overnight. There is a low chance we could see some "sunrise surprise" fog at KMPV and KSLK but the probability is below 30%. Winds will be lighter on Friday with winds from the south at less than 10 knots.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.