textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 241 PM EDT Tuesday...

Have continued to increases chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 245 PM EDT Tuesday...

1. Mainly dry conditions expected overnight, with renewed chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon.

2. More shower chances Thursday into Thursday night

3. A beautiful weekend is setting up as a dry airmass moves into the region. Chances for precipitation increase again late Sunday afternoon into Monday.

DISCUSSION

As of 245 PM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Drier air continues to advect into our region this afternoon with gusty northwesterly winds this afternoon. Winds will decrease headed into the evening and overnight, with some fog development possible since we had a soaking rain across much of the area in the last 24 hours. Some isolated showers have still managed to pop up despite drier air and some may track into our area from Ontario or Quebec later this afternoon and evening. Don't have any surface instability present to support stronger storms. Our region will remain in northwesterly upper level flow through Wednesday, and additional showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected Wednesday afternoon with a bit better coverage than today due to some upper level support with shortwave energy passing through progressive upper level flow. Continues to look like best chances for showers Wednesday will be across the northern half of our forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A low pressure system will pass near or north of the region later Thursday into Friday. Scattered rain with embedded thunderstorms can be expected with this system, with convective weather more uncertain and relatively limited compared to recent events. Still some uncertainty with timing of features passing through, and also lacking some model consistency, leading to a low confidence forecast for that timeframe. Looks like things will kind of come through piecemeal too, so don't think we'll see any organized storms on Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Over the weekend, much drier air moves into the region as high pressure pushes the low along the longwave pattern. Conditions will likely be quite pleasant Saturday with dewpoints in the 40s and 50s with temperatures generally in the 70s. The ridge axis is projected to shift eastward Sunday and supports slightly warmer highs for the broader valleys with continued 40s and 50s dew points. Overall, these conditions are shaping up to be near ideal weather for outdoor activities. However, there is the potential (10- 40% chance of precip) for some showers and thunderstorms late Sunday afternoon, increasing Sunday night and early Monday morning to 30- 60% chance as the next wave moves through quickly in zonal flow with a few showers lingering on Monday. Temperatures should warm a degree or Monday and Tuesday as low level flow turns southwesterly.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 00Z Thursday...Northwest winds around 5kts will become light and variable overnight with mostly clear skies as daytime cumulus dissipate. Looking for a brief period of LIFR fog at MPV, SLK, and possibly EFK between 09-12Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail through 18Z Wednesday. Scattered afternoon showers and perhaps a thunderstorm is possible mid- late Wednesday afternoon. With timing and coverage uncertainties, will wait for later TAF packages to specify those details. Daylight hours Wednesday, winds increase again out of the west-northwest, except locally NNE at 5-8kt at KPBG.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Thursday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.