textproduct: Burlington

SYNOPSIS

Brisk conditions will continue this morning with cold apparent temperatures below zero degrees for most locations. A few snow showers will continue mainly for upslope areas over the next few days with a weak system moving through this weekend bringing some light snow accumulations. Unseasonably cool temperatures are expected to trend back towards seasonal averages by the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 122 AM EST Friday...After a bitterly cold morning with temperatures ranging from -15 to 10 F, temperatures will struggle to reach any higher than the teens and lower 20s today. Winds will be much milder today than yesterday, however, so wind chills won't feel quite as sharp. After lake enhanced showers in St. Lawrence and Franklin counties of New York abate this morning, today will be mostly dry outside of occasional afternoon upslope snow showers in the mountains due to increasing saturation projected in model soundings and a passing trough shifting our flow back out of the northwest. These conditions and shower chances persist into the overnight tonight as well with temperatures falling into the single digits above and below zero.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 122 AM EST Friday...A shortwave trough will approach Saturday/Saturday night bringing some snow showers to northern New York and Vermont. Current timing of the wave supports best chances overnight into early Sunday, perhaps 10-40% chances of measurable precipitation. This wave is projected to be quite weak and quick- moving across all models pointing to only token amounts of snow, generally less a half an inch being favored. Temperatures will remain colder than average with highs likely only in the teens to mid 20s and overnight lows in the single digits around zero.

Another trough and weaker variety cold front will move through the region on Sunday. Have generally 10-40% PoPs for this period as well. Aside for the Connecticut River Valley, intervals of snow showers or flurries are possible during the day on Sunday. Otherwise, it'll be cold on Sunday with highs in the teens to mid 20s yet again.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 136 AM EST Friday...1028mb high pres is progged to be directly over SLK at 12z Monday, resulting in ideal radiational cooling conditions with light winds and clear skies. The only issue from keeping temps from completely bottoming out wl be timing of mid/upper lvl clouds/clouds toward 12z Monday from west to east associated with next system. Did note the NBM was negative 2F for BTV and -13F at SLK, while the 50th percentile was -4F and -21F respectively. Did blend in some 50th percentile to lower temps by 2 to 4 degrees, supporting lows between -5F and -15F for now. Additional lowering maybe needed once confidence increases on timing of mid/upper lvl clouds, given progged 925mb temps btwn -20C and -22C. Next weak clipper/warm frontal system arrives on Monday into Monday in the fast zonal flow aloft. System has limited dynamics and moisture, so only anticipating a light snowfall attm. Temps wl rebound quickly into the mid teens to near 20F by Monday aftn and warm near seasonable levels by Tuesday in the mid 20s to near 30F, supported by progged 925mb temps of -4C to -7C.

Mid/upper lvl pattern evolution continues to evolve for mid to late week with zonal flow for midweek, developing into eastern CONUS ridge for late week into next weekend. The general idea of several weak embedded s/w's and lobes of moisture wl keep fa unsettled, but probability of a significant system is low with lack of pattern amplification and fast flow aloft. Temps generally trending at or above normal by mid to late week with increasing chances of light wintry mix to rain scenario developing, as colder air remains trapped near the sfc. For now have highs warming into the 30s with lows mainly in the 20s to near 30F.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 12Z Saturday...Currently VFR in most taf sites except MVFR cigs at RUT/SLK. Expect these lower cigs to improve to VFR by 15-16z this morning. Otherwise, a brief passing snow shower with MVFR/IFR cannot be ruled out at any mtn taf sites today into this aftn, but moisture profiles are minimal, so impacts should be marginal VFR continues into this evening with additional minor threat for more very light snow showers and localized MVFR conditions possible. West to northwest winds continue at 3 to 7 knots.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. Chance SHSN. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.

EQUIPMENT

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.