textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 737 PM EDT Friday...Updated to decrease areal coverage and intensity of fog tonight, as cyclonic flow will produce plenty of clouds and limit fog development, except for parts of the CT River Valley. Expecting low level stratus to develop after midnight with higher terrain becoming obscured by morning.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 231 PM EDT Friday...

1. Isolated rain showers today and Saturday, then drier weather Sunday and Monday.

2. Stronger storm system for mid-late week followed by taste of Fall.

DISCUSSION

As of 231 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: As upper level flow remains northwesterly over our region under an upper level trough we will have continued chances for isolated rain showers this afternoon and evening and again on Saturday. Surface high pressure will ridge into our area from the north on Sunday and into Monday, leading to drier weather during that period. Will have areas of fog each overnight, highs generally in the 70s areawide.

KEY MESSAGE 2: The more dynamic fall-like synoptic pattern is beginning to become established. Going into mid and late week, a deepening low will move east from Ontario into Quebec, with ensemble guidance indicating it will likely drop blow 990 mb by the time it reaches Atlantic Canada. The center of the low should pass by well to the north and the best dynamics should miss the region. While warm air advection will occur mid-week and bring a more humid airmass into the region, there will not be enough time for a fully tropical airmass to become established. Therefore, this will limit instability as the system passes by. During Wednesday night and into the day on Thursday, multiple boundaries/troughs/fronts will pass through and bring multiple rounds of showers. A favored nocturnal passage of the strongest dynamics and a marginal airmass should prevent a widespread severe threat, but with such a strong low to the north the threat will still be watched. Afterward, the coolest airmass of the season so far will become established, with widespread highs in the 60s (and potentially 50s in the cooler spots) for Friday. Depending on the position of the surface high over the weekend, first frost could be possible in the cold hollows.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 00Z Sunday...Currently VFR conditions with northwest winds 2 to 7 knots at our TAF sites this evening. Aviation challenge will be lowering cigs to MVFR and eventually areas of IFR by early Saturday morning. Deep cyclonic upslope flow continues with developing MVFR cigs quickly spread southward from eastern Canada toward northern VT this evening. Based on latest GOES-19 satl imagery and sounding data, expecting MVFR cigs to develop by 03z acrs our mtn sites of EFK/MPV and SLK and by 06z at BTV and RUT. Intervals of IFR cigs are expected at EFK/MPV/SLK/BTV and RUT between 06Z-14Z Saturday associated with moist cyclonic and blocked flow, as low level inversion develops. Mostly VFR vis will trend toward some MVFR at MPV/SLK and EFK after 06Z. CIGS and VIS should slowly improve to MVFR conditions by 15z and a mix of MVFR/VFR by 18z Saturday with northwest to northeast winds 5 to 10 knots.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Patchy BR. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Patchy BR. Sunday Night: VFR. Patchy BR. Labor Day: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.