textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 727 PM EDT Friday...

A wind advisory has been issued for northern New York and northwestern Vermont Saturday night into Sunday morning for northern New York and northwestern Vermont.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 227 PM EDT Friday...

1. Gusty winds will continue this afternoon before decreasing this evening into the overnight hours.

2. Strong winds and rainfall expected Saturday night and Sunday; quieter on Monday

3. Cool and showery weather is expected for early next week, with high pressure bringing dry weather for mid-week. More seasonable temperatures are expected as the week progresses.

DISCUSSION

As of 227 PM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Wind gusts today have largely over-performed in the northern Champlain Valley where wind gusts between 45 and 55 mph were quite common. Although mixing continues to increase as surface temperatures warm, our winds have likely peaked as the low level jet has now shifted east into New Hampshire. Nevertheless, gusty winds in the 25 to 40 mph range will be common through 7 PM. Winds will weaken following sunset and will switch to the north/northwest following a cold front passage. A few showers may accompany the cold front but the current radar looks rather unimpressive with just a few pinprick showers around.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Most of Saturday will be a beautiful spring day across the North Country and northern New York with glimpses of sun, temperatures warming into the 50s, and north winds of 5 to 15 mph. Cloud cover will begin to increase Saturday afternoon ahead of an approaching warm front but it looks like rainfall will likely hold off until after sunset. Numerical guidance, both deterministic and ensembles, have shown a noticeable jump to less precipitation and stronger winds Saturday night into Sunday. Initially, the warm front will encounter a pocket of drier air which will initially limit rainfall Saturday night. However, deeper moisture is expected to advect northward through the nighttime hours. A strong cold front with an impressive thermal gradient will move through the region Sunday morning with widespread rainfall expected with the frontal passage. A strong mid-level and upper-level jet will help quickly push the front eastward, thus limiting overall rainfall totals. The latest forecast highlights reduced rainfall amounts Saturday night and Sunday with most locations likely to see a quarter to half of an inch of rain with slightly higher amounts expected throughout the St. Lawrence Valley.

Initially, some rainfall may start off as freezing rain across far eastern Vermont as cold air will be in place as precipitation begins to fall. The big caveat for the freezing rain potential Saturday night/Sunday morning will be how warm we get during the day on Saturday as most guidance has warmer temperature channeling up the Connecticut River Valley. We have opted to not issue a winter weather advisory for freezing rain at this time but if the possibility for freezing rain increases, an advisory may be warranted.

A Wind Advisory has been issued for northern New York and northwestern Vermont Saturday night through Sunday morning for wind gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range. The latest HREF probabilities of greater than 45 mph winds has increased to 80+% which was enough for us to go ahead and issue the advisory. Luckily, leaves haven't formed on tree branches just yet which will help mitigate the overall impact of these stronger winds. Nevertheless, a few power outages as seen today will be possible.

KEY MESSAGE 3: A cool and showery weather pattern is expected to continue for the early portion of next week as the region remains under the influence of an upper level low and persistent northwesterly flow. Temperatures Monday night into Tuesday will be cold enough to support some mountain snow showers, but the broader valleys should remain warm enough that any precipitation should fall as rain. Shower activity will begin to wane throughout the day Tuesday as high pressure begins to nose into the region, with drier conditions expected for Wednesday into Thursday before a frontal boundary pushes through the region and brings additional chances for showers. Temperatures to start the week will be on the cold side, with highs only in the 30s and low 40s, but towards the end of the week temperatures look to trend into the 50s and 60s.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 00Z Sunday...LLWS and gusty surface winds will be the main aviation threat through 06Z with some IFR/MVFR CIGs being the secondary threat primarily 03-14Z. A low level jet is exiting the region with some decrease 2000-5000ft layer winds that are continuing to result in both speed and directional shear promoting hazardous flying conditions. After 06Z, winds aloft will decreases sufficiently enough to remove concerns for LLWS; SFC winds will likewise decrease as they turn more northwesterly. CIGs are primarily VFR with potential for MVFR/IFR as flow turns more northwesterly overnight - main thought is that MVFR will be the main mode, but can't rule out IFR at times. VFR conditions return 12-15Z remaining so through the remainder of the period. While not in this TAF period, there are indications that winds and CIG conditions will begin to degrade again as the next system moves towards northern New York and Vermont after 22Z.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong winds with gusts to 40 kt. Definite SHRA, Chance RA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Definite SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHSN, Slight chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

EQUIPMENT

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...Wind Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for VTZ001- 002-005. NY...Wind Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for NYZ026>031-035-087.