textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 255 AM EDT Friday...

Winds were increased Sunday night into Monday ahead and along a cold front expected to move through the region.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 255 AM EDT Friday...

1. Dry conditions will persist for southern Vermont ahead of a wetting rainfall as a cold front moves through the region.

2. Temperatures trend warmer late this weekend with another system expected to move through the region by Monday. Gusty winds are possible.

3. Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected for next week, along with several chances for precipitation.

DISCUSSION

As of 255 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry conditions continue, especially across southern Vermont where overnight recoveries will remain poor to moderately good. Winds remain breezy at the time of this writing which is keeping radiation inversions for forming in many valleys while ridge/slopes remain exposed to drier breezes. Fortunately, wind speeds are not critical and are expected to trend lighter while RH recovers into the 45-70% range by daybreak. Keeping with latest observation trends, opted not to go with model guidance for dew points in southern Vermont keeping drier conditions ongoing through this afternoon. Winds will increase marginally through the day, so some gusts to 25 mph remain possible and could result in very localized areas of fire weather concerns in southern Vermont.

A cold front will move through the region today bringing a wetting rain(0.1" or greater) that will help mitigate fire weather concerns heading into the weekend. Kept QPF trending with CAMs which are better highlighting terrain with higher QPF amounts ranging 0.25-0.5" while lower elevations range 0.1-0.25" in general. Frontal timing remains fairly consistent with heaviest precipitation occurring early afternoon for the St Lawrence Valley, between 6 and 9 PM for the Champlain Valley, and by midnight for southern Vermont. Westerly flow will promote some shadowing, especially in southern Vermont where the lowest amounts are projected to be. Temperatures will be above seasonal averages today and tonight trending more seasonal for Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Another system will be approaching Sunday with widespread rain seemingly probable Sunday night into Monday. Projected position of the parent low moving over the James Bay will favor strongest forcing north of the region so thunderstorms are not as likely. However, model projections of a strong low level jet remain and support concerns for gusty winds, especially in the Champlain Valley. Strong warm air advection is likely in this pattern and would support high temperatures at least in the 60s for most locations, if not around 70 degrees Monday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Surface high pressure will shift eastward by the end of the weekend, with guidance continuing to support the eastern CONUS under broad upper level ridging. Several shortwaves look to move into the region under broad zonal flow, bringing chances for rain showers, but the exact timing and details of these features are difficult to pinpoint this far out. Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected for early next week, as southerly flow helps usher in warmer air. Daytime high temperatures look to climb into the upper 60s and even 70s by the middle of next week. In comparison, normal high temperatures for this time of year are generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s. These trends will need to be monitored as we get closer.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 12Z Saturday...VFR conditions currently prevail across all terminals, and will continue for the next few hours before precipitation arrives. Rain will gradually spread across the region from northwest to southeast as a front boundary moves across the region, starting to move into between 15Z and 21Z. This rain will lead to lower ceilings and some reduced visibilities, generally MVFR with visibilities between 4-6SM and ceilings trending below 1500 ft AGL. Some IFR ceilings will be possible, generally between 00Z and 06Z, especially across northern New York with all of the increased moisture. Winds continue to be southerly this morning, with some gusts up to 30 knots still occurring at KBTV. As the front moves across the region, winds will shift to become more north/northwesterly. Some periods of LLWS will be possible at terminals throughout the forecast period.

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

EQUIPMENT

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS. An estimated return to service is May 1st. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.