textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 223 AM EST Wednesday...

Today's high temperatures were slightly increased.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 223 AM EST Wednesday...

1. Near record high temperatures are expected today with mostly sunny conditions and limited, localized fire weather concerns.

2. Showers are expected on Thursday and possibly linger into Thursday night, then mainly dry weather will follow for Friday. No impactful weather is expected.

3. Periodic showers are possible over the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 223 AM EST Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Record high temperatures for the date remain on track for today; see Climate section of the forecast discussion for details. Progged 925 millibar temperatures of 16 to 18 Celsius, near climatological maximum values, supports high temperatures in the low to mid 70s with dry adiabatic lapse rates across our valley locations. The most unusually extreme temperatures are favored for the Adirondacks and northeastern Vermont, where the Extreme Forecast Index most recent run shows a high confidence of near record high temperatures. This has trended more extreme with time, so we have used the 90th percentile temperature guidance for high temperatures. The resulting forecast highs look consistent with recent verification of observed temperatures and for a scenario with sunshine and warm air advection from the southwest. Relative humidity will remain fairly moderate based on guidance and observed values upstream in the Midwest, putting a likely minimum in the 40% range. A few wind gusts may exceed 25 MPH this morning with channeled flow in the Champlain Valley, but winds aloft generally look too light to cause much concern even if boundary layer mixing is deeper than modeled.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A weakening cold front will put an end to our dry and very warm weather. Two rounds of showers appears on the docket for Thursday, with the first round being relatively disordered showers tied to a surge of anomalous moisture sliding northeastward through our region. This precipitation looks strongly forced with relatively deep moisture such that rain chances will be nearly certain for at least a brief period of time during the daytime hours. Towards evening, while moisture will be more limited, sufficiently steep lapse rates to yield a ribbon of instability and a chance of loosely organized showers that will track to the east across northern Vermont Thursday night. As the front exits/washes out to our east, think flow will be light enough amidst rich near surface moisture to support some patchy fog and drizzle regardless of how widespread these evening showers wind up being. The lack of a wind shift will keep temperatures and humidity above normal into Friday. However, conditions look mainly dry with our region sitting between an inverted trough to our east and an incoming upper level low to our west. Most likely rainfall amounts being offered are mainly 0.1" to 0.33", but with convective nature of some of the rain, footprints will be quite variable.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Upper level troughing will likely settle over eastern Canada and the Northeast as the longwave pattern is favored to stall Saturday through the weekend. Model consensus points to multiple rounds of rainfall associated with upper level low overhead and potential for surface low pressure to gyre and pivot back westward early next week while a series of troughs move through the base of the longwave overhead. The result will be for more shower chances Saturday onward with temperatures cooling back into the 50s and upper 40s. Elevation dependent snowfall could occur with the cold pool expected to be over the region. It's feasible that there could be some lower elevation pellet showers should the troughs be more energetic as they move through. This pattern will favor cooler overnight lows as well with lower elevations in the 30s and mid/upper 20s above 1500-2000ft through Monday. There are some indications that reinforcing cold air may occur by Tuesday possibly pushing temperatures lower Tuesday night.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 06Z Thursday...Conditions will primarily be VFR except at EFK where MVFR CIGs are ongoing. Should there be breaks in higher clouds, some lower CIGs may form at most susceptible terminals like SLK/MPV, but mid/high clouds should fill back in. Light winds overnight will promote some areas of LLWS across northern New York and far northern Vermont as a weak jet moves across the region. This will largely disperse by 12Z as winds mix to the surface and the jet exits. Southerly breezes are expected to be around 10 mph with some gusts 15 to 20kts at times. Highest gusts will be at PBG and MSS where flow is more channeled and could top out around 25 kts.

Outlook...

Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance RA. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Slight chance RA.

CLIMATE

As of 223 AM EST Wednesday...

Extreme warmth for this time of year is likely today. As a result, some daily record temperatures may be set, with the greatest chance at KMSS.

High Temperatures: Site | Record | Forecast KMSS | 71 (2022) | 75 KBTV | 73 (1982) | 73 KPBG | 72 (1990) | 72 KMPV | 72 (2022) | 74 KSLK | 74 (1944) | 73 SJBV1 | 73 (1990) | 75

Low Temperatures also in jeopardy:

Today: Site | Record | Forecast KMSS | 51 (1975) | 55 KBTV | 54 (2022) | 56

Tomorrow: KBTV: Record is 60 in 2022 KPBG: Record is 50 in 2024

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.