textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 232 AM EDT Friday...

No significant changes were made with this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 232 AM EDT Friday...

1. A strong storm system will bring widespread rain and gusty winds today, followed by much colder weather and mountain snow showers on Saturday.

2. Next week continues to look very quiet with temperatures near normal and high confidence of an extended dry period of weather.

DISCUSSION

As of 232 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Low pressure is currently moving through central Michigan this morning, spreading rain across southern Ontario and into northern/central New York. Much of this rain isn't reaching the ground yet per NYS Mesonet observations, but expect it won't take much longer for the atmosphere to moisten enough for rain to arrive in earnest. This precipitation shield will continue to spread over New York and into Vermont early this morning as the low lifts along the St Lawrence Valley before shifting eastward just north of the international border. There are still some indications that one this first round of rain moves through, precipitation will turn more showery in nature with some spots getting a bit of a break around mid morning. Meanwhile, a 55+ kt 850 mb jet, currently moving into the eastern Great Lakes, will also make its way to our area. There's still some question how much of this will be able to mix to the ground as it will be somewhat coincident with the steadier rain, especially in northern New York. However, it will at least allow temperatures to surge into the upper 50s/low 60s. Mountain summits will be very windy as well, with gusts to 60 mph expected. Gusts will also likely be strong in the Champlain Valley and the northern slopes of the Greens, due to funneling down the valley and downsloping off the higher terrain. The aforementioned dry break could coincide with the jet's arrival at these areas, so mixing could be better as well. Hence still anticipate gusts up to 40 mph in these locations, with perhaps some briefly higher gusts at times. This could be enough to bring a few branches down, perhaps resulting in isolated power outages, but widespread impacts are not expected at this time. Elsewhere, gusts will remain in the 25 to 35 mph range.

The low moves to our north by mid day, dragging its attendant cold front across northern New York and Vermont during the afternoon and early evening. The latest CAM guidance shows convective showers developing ahead of/along this front as it pushes southeastward. We'll have little to no instability given the early morning rainfall, so anticipate showers won't be organized or strong/severe in our area. Still, there may be a few rumbles of thunder, especially in southern Vermont. Total rainfall through the daylight hours today will be 0.50 to 1.0 inch, with locally higher amounts in the higher terrain.

Winds will turn to the northwest behind the cold front, ushering in a much colder airmass. Moisture will linger for a time overnight, and the northwest flow will cause showers to focus on the favored western upslope sides of the Adirondacks and northern/central Greens. Rain will gradually transition to snow as temperatures fall overnight. Showers should wane in coverage through the night and especially Saturday morning as drier air works in behind a secondary front, coming to an end by afternoon. Between the brief timing of snow and the relatively warm ground, snow accumulations will be minimal and mainly confined to elevations above 1500 ft. Even there, accumulations will likely be half inch or less. The highest summits could see upwards of 2 inches or so.

Saturday will be much colder, with highs only in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Sun should start to break out in the afternoon, but winds will remain brisk, with gusts 25 to 30 mph. The morning will start out with wind chills in the teens and 20s; the summits will likely feel like the single digits in the morning, with negative numbers possible. These wind chills improve only slightly through the day, so anyone who has outdoor plans should prepare for bitterly cold conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2: South to southwest flow will resume on Sunday, and we will moderate closer to seasonal norms with widespread 50s for highs under high pressure. This high pressure should shift north and east, then to start the work week, another high pressure over Quebec will dive southeastward into northern New England and the southern Canadian Maritimes, keeping our forecast area dry. Ahead of a weak back door cold front, daytime temperatures will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s Tuesday, decreasing slightly for the second half of the week. Nighttime temperatures next week fall into the mid 20s to lower 40s. Fire weather concerns will increase next week due to the long duration of dry weather anticipated, but winds will remain mostly light and terrain driven under high pressure.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 12Z Saturday... A strong storm system is bringing widespread rain, MVFR ceilings, lowered visibilities, low level wind shear, and gusty surface winds today, followed by mountain snow showers tonight.

Rain has begun across northern New York and Vermont this morning, resulting in visibility restrictions of 4-6 miles or higher, with a few brief periods of 1-3 mile vis in heavier precipitation. On and off rain showers will continue today, with lull periods in between. Precipitation will likely come to an end around 22Z Friday - 00Z Saturday, potentially lingering later and changing to a rain/snow mix in the mountain sites (SLK, MPV, EFK) around 02Z-06Z Saturday. Highest confidence of any snow is at SLK from 03Z-08Z Saturday.

Lowered ceilings are also in full swing across the forecast area this morning, with cigs ranging from 300 to 3100 feet above ground level. We expect mostly ceilings between 1200-3500 for much of today at BTV, PBG, MPV, and RUT. Site MSS has already reported steady ceilings 300-500 feet AGL this morning in northeasterly flow, and we expect IFR or LIFR ceilings to persist through around 21Z Friday. Sites SLK and EFK have the potential for IFR ceilings as well, most likely between 15Z and 21Z Friday. Otherwise, sites could see occasional dips into IFR cig territory throughout the day today.

Winds aloft will be strong (30-55 knots) today out of the southwest, resulting in periods of LLWS at all sites over the next 24 hours. Surface winds are also already beginning to mix down some breezier gusts 15-30 knots out of the south, except at MSS which has its northeasterly wind 5-10 knots instead. Winds will continue to be gusty over the next 24 hours, turning more southwesterly around 15Z-22Z Friday. Highest gusts are expected in the Champlain Valley 35-40 knots out of the south from 14Z through 20Z Friday.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

MARINE

A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for Lake Champlain today. South winds will increase early this morning, becoming 15 to 30 knots with gusts to 35 knots. Locally higher gusts possible. Winds will turn to the northwest and lessen somewhat after a cold front moves through later this afternoon, but the Lake Wind Advisory will likely need to remain in place through Saturday.

CLIMATE

Daily low maximum temperatures will likely be broken on Saturday. Current records at some climate sites in our region are as follows:

Record Low Maximum Temperatures:

October 17: KBTV: 42/1970 KPBG: 44/2015 KSLK: 36/1970

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.