textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 243 AM EST Sunday... Chance for light snow have increased Monday night, though only minor snowfall accumulations are expected. Hazardous weather is not anticipated through the next 5-7 days.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 243 AM EST Sunday...

1. A cold front early this morning will bring briefly colder air across the North Country for today.

2. Very light snow is expected early Monday morning and again early Tuesday morning. Little overall travel impacts expected.

3. Temperatures trend back above normal Tuesday and generally remain above normal into next weekend, with light precipitation events possible.

DISCUSSION

As of 243 AM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A shallow cold front moving southward across our region during the pre-dawn hours is ushering in colder air and a few pre-dawn snow flurries. IR satellite imagery upstream indicates that skies should gradually clear from north-to-south toward daybreak. After seeing valley highs in the low-mid 30s on Saturday (and above freezing for the first time in 22 days at BTV), low-level cold air advection will result in high temperatures 5-10 degrees cooler this afternoon, despite ample sunshine. Overall expecting tranquil weather conditions, and the north winds will generally subside to 5 mph or less by late this morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A fast west-northwest flow will continue across the northern Great Lakes into the Northeast over the next couple of days. An embedded shortwave trough should bring increasing clouds and light stratiform snowfall to our region during the 06-12Z period early Monday morning. The NAM3 solution is more bullish on QPF associated with this feature than the HRRR. Have stayed closer to the HRRR based on continuity, with the idea of a quick dusting to 1" possible before dawn on Monday. Travel impacts should be relatively minor, and any lingering light snow should exit ewd into NH by 13Z.

Similarly, another northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to affect the North Country between 06-12Z Tuesday morning. Included additional chances for light snow, with a coating to 2" possible in spots. Again, winter travel impacts should be relatively minor. With high temperatures expected in the upper 30s to lower 40s for Tuesday afternoon, any snow covered roads should rapidly improve toward mid-late morning.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Considerable spread exists in the 00Z NWP guidance suite, with possible high latitude block developing across Quebec into James/Hudson Bay for the mid-late week period. As a result, there is considerable uncertainty whether a system across the Ohio Valley can spread precipitation newd into the North Country for late Wednesday into Wednesday night. The official forecast most closely reflects the 00Z ECMWF, with WAA associated precipitation in the form of a rain/snow mix moving from SW-NE into much of the region very late Wednesday and continuing into Wednesday night (60-70% PoPs). This could yield winter travel impacts, though it is notable that the 00Z GFS and a few other models keep this precipitation to our south with stronger blocking. Currently expecting highs into the mid-upper 30s for Wed/Thu, though stronger blocking would likely yield colder temperatures, which remain a possibility during the Wed/Thu time frame.

A more significant 700-500mb trough digging across the central U.S. may result in additional precipitation chances for Friday into Saturday, with a frontal wave in the Ohio Valley possibly moving newd into NY/New England toward the end of the week. With a lot of spread in the GEFS members, PoPs are in the 40-50% range for the late week system at this time. A rain/snow mix is possible, but will await better predictability with later model runs to outline possible scenarios for the North Country.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 12Z Monday...Lingering band of MVFR ceilings at KRUT associated with shallow cold front will shift south of the region by 14Z. Looking for SKC-SCT200-250 through the remainder of the daylight hours. A weak mid-level trough across the northern Great Lakes region will spread some very light snow into our region after 06Z Monday. Have indicated 5SM -SN after 08Z at most of the TAF sites, except 3SM -SN at KSLK. Light north winds during the daylight hrs will shift light south around 5kts for tonight.

Outlook...

Washingtons Birthday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA, Chance SN. Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SN. Thursday: VFR. Chance SN.

CLIMATE

As of 1228 AM EST Sunday...In Burlington, the last day with a temperature breaking 32 degrees was January 22nd. Saturday's high temperature was 35 degrees. Therefore the streak has ended at 22 days in a row. Sub-freezing temperature streaks this long are fairly unusual in the Burlington area, last happening January- February 2015.

EQUIPMENT

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.