textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 213 AM EDT Saturday...

No significant changes have been made to the forecast at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 213 AM EDT Saturday...

1. A few showers today and Sunday but mainly dry through Tuesday.

2. A more robust system is expected towards mid-late week, followed by some cooler temperatures.

DISCUSSION

As of 213 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A retrograding area of low pressure system near Nova Scotia will bring some isolated to scattered rain showers to the region throughout the day. Models are showing weak moisture transport but steepening mid-level lapse rates from cold advection aloft with be able to utilize the modest moisture and produce some showers through the day. We don't expect any heavy rainfall with amounts likely peaking around a tenth of an inch. Most places, however, will remain dry through the day as areal coverage will not be overly impressive. Rain chances will diminish as we head into Sunday morning but an isolated shower cannot be ruled out for the first part of Sunday. Thereafter, deep layer ridging will become established across the North Country and northern New York with mostly clear skies, light winds, and seasonably cool temperatures expected on both Monday and Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Towards the middle of next week, a deepening low centered well to our north will move eastward from Ontario to Quebec, with associated frontal boundaries bringing more widespread precipitation to our region, with the most widespread showers currently expected Wednesday night into Thursday. Although there will be plenty of moisture, the better dynamics will be further north and the nocturnal timing will limit instability so widespread thunderstorm activity is not expected but trends will need to be monitored as we get closer. Behind this system, cooler weather will return for the end of the week, with high temperatures on Friday generally in the 60s to near 70 across the region.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 12Z Sunday...A mix of flight conditions continue across the region this morning, with all terminals currently experiencing MVFR ceilings or lower. Intermittent IFR ceilings are expected to continue for another few hours at KSLK/KBTV/KEFK, with improvement back towards MVFR generally between 13Z and 15Z. MVFR conditions will linger through most of the morning, with improvement backs towards VFR generally by 18Z to 21Z depending on the terminal. Winds will generally northerly at 5 to 10 knots throughout the day, with gusts up to 20 knots possible throughout the afternoon, before trending light and variable towards 00Z. A few showers may develop this afternoon, but left mention of them out of the TAF due to low confidence in timing and location.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Labor Day: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.