textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 124 PM EST Sunday...

No significant changes made to the forecast, with a couple of relatively minor snow events expected over the next several days. No significant impacts anticipated.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 124 PM EST Sunday...

1. Light snow is expected late tonight into Monday morning and again late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Minimal impacts expected.

2. Considerable uncertainty remains for another potential snow system for mid week.

3. Above normal temperatures mid week into the weekend with chances of precipitation as well.

DISCUSSION

As of 124 PM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A beautiful February day across the region today with ample sunshine and temperatures in the mid teens to mid 20s. Clouds are already increasing this afternoon ahead of our next system however. A weak upper shortwave currently crossing the Great Lakes will slide over our region later tonight into Monday morning. Much like our system Saturday morning, both forcing and moisture are minimal with this shortwave and its associated clipper low; a stronger low of the Mid Atlantic coast will keep better moisture well to our south. Light snow will spread into northern NY overnight, eventually moving into the Champlain Valley and western Greens early Monday before dissipating as it crosses the spine into eastern VT. Most areas will see little more than flurries, with most areas getting just a light dusting to perhaps a few tenths of an inch of accumulation. Temperatures will be in the teens to low 20s overnight, so the snow will be dry and light with little in the way of travel impacts.

Another shortwave will bring another round of light precipitation Monday night into Tuesday. This one will have a little better moisture, though it'll still be fairly scanty. Snow will spread from west to east overnight Monday night in response to weak warm air advection, continuing into Tuesday morning before winding down by the afternoon. While precipitation should mainly fall as snow, there are some indications that southwest flow at 850 mb could allow a slight warm nose to spread into northern NY. Surface temperatures meanwhile will be marginal. Highs on Monday will be in the lower to mid 30s areawide, and with an influx of cloud cover, there's uncertainty in how much cooling can occur overnight. Still, some patchy freezing rain can't be ruled out, especially in the northern Champlain and northern St Lawrence Valleys early Tuesday morning. Moisture thins substantially during the day, so any snow and/or freezing rain should mostly end before having the chance to change over to plain rain with temperatures warming into the upper 30s to low 40s. Either way, precipitation amounts will be light, with a half inch or less of snow expected. Any freezing rain would be patchy with perhaps a glaze of accretion at most. Have kept with the trend of just snow and/or rain during this time frame due to uncertainty, particularly with surface temperatures, but later shifts may need to add a mention of freezing rain if probabilities increase.

KEY MESSAGE 2: There remains considerable spread in both the deterministic and ensemble models for Wednesday into Thursday, with a possible block developing across eastern Canada. Meanwhile, a low pressure system will develop over the Northern/Central Plains and move eastward. The question will be how far north this low and its associated precipitation will be able to intrude as it encounters the block to our northeast. The deterministic GFS continues to be the most aggressive with the dry air across our region, keeping the Plains low and its precipitation shunted just to our south. The CMC follows close behind, just a hair further north with the precip, spreading it into central/southern portions of our region. The NAM and ECWMF, meanwhile, would bring precipitation to most, if not all, of our forecast area, with perhaps just areas immediately along the international border remaining dry. There's just as wide a variety amongst the various ensemble suites as well, including the drier GFS. Assuming we do get precipitation, type is just as uncertain as warmer air from the Plains low would be riding up and over the colder, drier air associated with the high to our north and east. As such, there very well could be a swath of wintry mixed precipitation wherever the snow/rain frontal interface sets up. Given all the uncertainty, there's way too much variability to forecast any kind of snow/rain/ice amounts and any potential impacts at this point. We urge you to stay tuned to subsequent forecasts as hopefully a trend will become established in the models as we head toward mid week.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Temperatures will be above normal from mid week likely into the weekend but still cold enough to support some winter precipitation.

Mid week system is wrapping up with precipitation, mainly snow ending Wed ngt. Shortwave ridging builds behind this first system and ahead of the next system for late Friday through late Saturday- Saturday night.

A more significant trough digging across the central U.S. and Great Lakes with a surface reflection moving across Great Lakes-Oh Rvr Vly and eventually the northeast. Decent mid-upper level dynamics on the backside of the upper ridge with the approaching shortwave should allow for some decent lift and overrunning. The models still have a spread in the details of the evolution of this northern system and a southern stream system. The latest Operational run trends is to mainly separate the two but there's still plenty of time for the models to come to some consensus. Separate systems mean lighter QPF while somewhat merging as suggested by some of the ensembles would equal more QPF, especially in southern areas with temperatures profiles around 0C.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 18Z Monday...VFR conditions thru 06z Monday with high clouds continuing to advance and eventually lower in advance of weak mid-level shortwave. Light snow/flurries after 06Z at most of the TAF sites, except possible 2SM -SN at KSLK at times. Aft 12z...clouds hanging on but pcpn ending.

Light north winds during the daylight hrs will shift light south around 5kts for tonight and then 5-10 kts for Monday.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN. Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely RA, Chance SN. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN. Thursday: VFR. Chance SN. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SN. Friday: VFR. Chance SN.

EQUIPMENT

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non- operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.