textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 911 AM EDT Saturday...

Have backed thunderstorm coverage a bit given trends in the data; still Rutland and Windsor counties will be perhaps an isolated storm. Also removed smoke from forecast through much of the day and kept in haze. Observed air quality upstream along with thickness of smoke plumes on satellite imagery does not look as concerning as modeled. Haze spreading in from the north and west is still anticipated through the day, and those sensitive to smoke may be impacted.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 241 AM EDT Saturday...

1. A few showers and thunderstorms remain possible this morning and early afternoon. Drier conditions expected for Sunday.

2. Some hazy conditions and poorer air quality is expected today due to wildfire smoke dropping out of Canada.

3. Warm weather will linger into next week, along with chances of showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

As of 241 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A few showers and thunderstorms remain possible this morning with some forcing along a frontal boundary dropping out of Canada and as a wave moves west to east from the Lake Ontario region. Forcing will not be overly strong with this front, but some showers are already evident in northern New York. These showers will move into north-central Vermont for the morning before quickly dropping south.

Highest chances of showers and thunderstorms will be in southern Vermont where a wave will move through late this morning and early afternoon. This area is evident over western Lake Ontario and will track eastward this morning. While strong thunderstorms are not anticipated, lightning will be a threat to those participating in outdoor Independence Day activities from 10 AM to 4 PM.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Wildfire smoke is evident over southern Canada and is dropping southward with the front. As winds turn northerly this area will advect over the region this morning and persist until around midnight. Air quality is expected to drop into the orange category becoming hazardous for groups that are more sensitive to air quality degradation. Some lingering haze is possible past midnight as high pressure moves in, but conditions are anticipated to improve overall moving into Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 3: By the middle of next week, the warm weather will continue to linger across the region. Current forecast supports high temperatures in 80s to low 90s for next week, although heat indices are not quite as high in comparison to the recent heat wave. Overnight lows remain on the warmer side, generally in the 60s, providing little relief from the daytime warmth. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will be possible throughout the week.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 12Z Sunday...VFR conditions currently prevail across all terminals, and are expected to persist through most of the forecast period, with the exception of some MVFR ceilings at KSLK which is expected to improve over the next few hours. Winds will trend west/northwesterly this morning into the afternoon, with gusts possible, before trending light and variable overnight. A few showers may be possible through the afternoon, especially further south at terminals like KRUT, but overall coverage and intensity of any showers should be relatively minor.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

CLIMATE

Below are the current low temperature records in jeopardy at our area climate sites.

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 4: KPBG: 71/1973 KSLK: 67/1952

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for VTZ001>010- 016>018. NY...None.