textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 249 AM EDT Tuesday...

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 249 AM EDT Tuesday...

1. Multiple rounds of showers and storms today and tomorrow.

2. Blue sky conditions to end the week with cool and crisp air.

3. Quiet and hot weather is expected this weekend before another storm system brings showers and thunderstorms to the region early next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 249 AM EDT Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: An occluding low will track well to the north today into Wednesday, bringing several rounds of showers. A few showers will move through this morning, but more widespread showers and thunderstorms will move through in the afternoon and evening. They will mostly dissipate and move out tonight, before another round of showers and thunderstorms develops on Wednesday, though mostly for Vermont. Right now, the severe threat is relatively low. There does not look to be a well-defined boundary; instead several rounds of showers with plenty of clouds will move through. There is very little time for solar heating and instability to form, and the airmass will be relatively cool to start with. With the low tracking well to the north, the best synoptic forcing will be well to the north, though there will be adequate wind shear. Overall, the region is in an SPC marginal risk which seems representative. While an isolated strong to severe storm is possible, that currently looks to be the extent of it, though the amount of heating will still be watched as more sun than expected could increase storm coverage a little. The system does not look to provide much of a flooding threat either. HREF probabilities of receiving more than an inch of rain are generally between 10-40 percent. While there will be areas of convective enhancement, the storms will be quick-moving and there will be gaps between the showers. PWATs should rise into the 1.5- 1.75 inch range but with the expected setup, that should not pose too much of a problem. While limited wildfire smoke may return today, its concentration will be significantly less than on Saturday and it will likely not have much of an effect on the convection.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A seasonably cool air mass, with minimal high altitude smoke, should make for outstanding weather for outdoor activities on Thursday and Friday as an upper level trough pushes to our northeast. Westerly flow in the morning will probably support some rough conditions on Lake Champlain that should improve during the day as anomalous low level temperatures moderate along with decreasing wind speeds. Winds decrease significantly for Friday. Expect high temperatures not too far off of seasonable norms due to abundant sunshine, currently projected to range through the 70s and into the lower 80s. Lows at night will be in the 40s and 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 3: High pressure will dominate this weekend, resulting in dry weather Friday night into Sunday. This is also allow for above seasonable temperatures with highs in the 80s and lows in the 50s to mid 60s as southwesterly flow aloft increases, advecting in warmer air ahead of our next system. This next system is expected to swing through early next week featuring a trough and cold front. This far out, models show significant differences from each other as well as from run to run, but most likely period of showers and thunderstorms would be Monday. This should also knock temperatures back down towards normal in the 70s to mid 80 and lows in the upper 40s to lower 60s.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 12Z Wednesday...VFR conditions will likely prevail at all sites this morning through around 19Z-23Z Tuesday, though multiple rounds of showers and storms are anticipated to come through northern New York and Vermont today and tomorrow. At this time, probability of thunderstorms hitting a given terminal are around 20-40%, most likely at SLK and MSS during the time frame 17Z-21Z Tuesday. Any thunderstorm may produce gusty to strong winds and briefly heavy rain/low visibilities. Otherwise, on and off showers are likely with overall winds out of the south gusting up to 20-35 knots this afternoon. A strong south-southwesterly low level jet increases potential for LLWS throughout the day at several terminals, including BTV, SLK, PBG, and RUT. With the arrival of showers and thunderstorms, ceilings may dip to MVFR levels briefly, but a more widespread and longer-lasting lowering of ceilings should arrive later this evening and tonight. Cloud layers between 500 and 3500 feet above ground level are likely toward 00Z Wednesday and onward, with vicinity patchy fog wafting through the valleys. Wind likely stays too elevated overnight for dense, stuck fog, but plenty of moisture will be around to make the forecast tricky.

Outlook...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

MARINE

A Lake Wind Advisory is expected to be in effect through tonight. Southerly winds will quickly increase in the latter portion of the night and by morning, sustained winds are expected to be in the 20-30 KT range. These winds stay elevated for the rest of the day and the evening. Winds will eventually become westerly and decrease for late tonight and tomorrow, dropping into the 10-20 KT range. Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected today, with stronger and erratic winds possible in any of those. The highest coverage of showers and storms will be in the afternoon and evening. Waves will quickly build into the 2-4 FT range for today and this evening, before eventually dropping into the 1-2 FT range late in the night.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.