textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 228 PM EST Thursday...

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 228 PM EST Thursday...

1. Periods of scattered showers will continue this afternoon through the upcoming weekend as temperatures cool to near normal levels.

2. There will be additional opportunities for non-impactful, beneficial precipitation during the early to middle portion of next week as the pattern remains unsettled.

DISCUSSION

As of 228 PM EST Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Isolated to scattered showers continue this afternoon into this evening as an initial cold front begins its passage through the region. Drier air directly behind the front will filter into northern New York and Vermont swiftly this evening, becoming enhanced by the of the right exit region of an incoming elongated jet streak, yielding dry conditions later this evening through the overnight period. However, with clouds slow to scour out due to lower-level moisture becoming trapped below a low- to mid-level inversion, temperatures will remain on the mild side. Expect lows in the low 40s to low 50s.

Dry conditions remain steady through tomorrow morning and even early tomorrow afternoon as a secondary cold front and parent low are slow to make eastward progress off the Eastern Great Lakes. However, by mid-afternoon, isolated to scattered showers return, particularly for Lake-adjacent areas, the Adirondacks where upslope flow will overcome an overall lack of forcing, and along the VT/NH border as a low develops along today's initial cold front that looks to stall along the New England Coastline. Rainfall rates are anticipated to be light, with QPF generally remaining under 0.1" through tomorrow night. Tomorrow's highs will be a bit cooler than today, though still classify as above-normal with values in the low 50s to mid 60s. Lows tomorrow night will then largely be in the 40s with upper 30s across higher elevations.

The passage of the secondary cold front tomorrow night will see temperatures fall much closer to normal than we have been over the last several days. Highs Saturday will only reach the 40s and 50s with additional chances for isolated to scattered showers across higher elevations as moist, cyclonic flow remains in place beneath an upper-level low moving into the Northeast. Lows Saturday night will then fall largely to the 30s and 40s with pockets of upper 20s across the Adirondacks and Greens. Sunday will remain seasonably chilly with additional potential for isolated, high-elevation showers, which could contain some snowflakes, and highs in the 30s to low 40s across higher elevations and upper 40s to low 50s in valley areas. Lows Sunday night will then fall largely to the 20s and 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2:

Additional chances for precipitation come mostly for Monday and Wednesday next week as we remain in a more unsettled pattern. However, given the recent dry conditions, all precipitation will be beneficial and not pose any significant impacts. Temperatures will remain more consistently near normal next week with highs largely in the 40s and 50s and lows in the 20s and 30s.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 00Z Saturday...A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions exist but low ceilings should eventually scatter tonight. EFK should be first to go and become VFR by midnight. SLK will likely take longer but it should be be VFR by 12Z. After the ceilings exit, VFR conditions will persist through tomorrow. A couple isolated to scattered showers are possible across Vermont this evening but the visibility should remain VFR during any of them. Winds will continue to decrease this evening, and by around 06Z, they should be 5 KT or less. Winds will generally stay light throughout the day tomorrow. Winds shear will be elevated tonight but it is not expected to reach the formal criteria. Outlook...

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Scattered SHRA. Saturday: MVFR. Scattered SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Numerous SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Scattered SHRA. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance RA. Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.

CLIMATE

As of 216 AM EST Thursday...

A high minimum temperature is possible at BTV today (11/5).

Forecast: 58 Record: 60 in 2022

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.