textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 239 AM EDT Thursday...

Forecast relative humidity values have dropped slightly for today.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 239 AM EDT Thursday...

1. Dry weather through the weekend with fire weather concerns today.

2. Dry conditions prevail through Tuesday morning. Rain showers looking more likely Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

As of 239 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A weak backdoor cold front is currently passing through mostly dry. Behind it, winds will shift to the northwest and a drier airmass will advect in. Relative humidity values are expected to drop into the 20 to 30 percent range today for most places, except staying in the 30s in the high terrain. A very dry layer above the boundary layer and well mixed profiles could cause dew points to drop slightly farther than forecast during the afternoon. Northwest winds are expected to gust in the 15 to 25 mph range for most areas, though localized gusts up to 30 mph are possible. Therefore, widespread near red flag conditions are expected, with a few localized areas potentially seeing them. The pressure gradient slackens on Friday and going into the weekend. Therefore, even though relative humidity values will remain low, fire weather concerns will be lower. Winds are expected to gust in the 10 to 20 mph range Friday and only around and under 10 mph over the weekend. Relative humidity values are expected to fall into the 25 to 40 percent range during those days. Efficient radiational cooling will allow good humidity recoveries at night. Fire weather concerns aside, the end of the week and weekend will have great spring like weather to get outside. While temperatures will drop to around and below freezing most nights, they will rise rapidly during the days.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Surface high pressure and a building ridge aloft will keep the weather quiet across the North Country and Vermont Monday into Tuesday morning before a warm front lifting from the Ohio Valley brings our next chance for precipitation Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Medium/long range guidance has come into better agreement with this system showing the primary surface and upper level lows well to our northwest lifting from the Great Lakes to the southern tip of James Bay. As such, there isn't much upper level support for significant rains, but an increase in PWATs towards 0.75- 1" along the frontal boundary could help produce a decent wetting rain up to 0.25" which would help squelch fire weather concerns a bit. Temperatures through the period are expected to be seasonal with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s, and lows mid/upper 30s to low 40s.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions will prevail through the period with overnight SCT- BKN mid clouds giving way to SKC-FEW250 after 12Z. Only aviation concern today will be gusty NNW winds developing after sunrise and persisting through the daylight hours. Sustained winds at all terminals should be in the 8-12kt range with gusts 20-25kts. Winds abate after sunset to 8kts or less.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.