textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 303 PM EDT Thursday...

No significant changes

KEY MESSAGES

As of 303 PM EDT Thursday...

1. Increased fire weather concerns through this weekend.

2. Mostly dry and seasonable conditions continue through the weekend.

3. A weak cool front early next week will slow a warming trend during another extended quiet weather period.

DISCUSSION

As of 303 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Breezy winds and lower relative humidity values will lead to increased fire weather concerns over the next few days, especially given the plentiful dry leaves serving as fuel. However, Red Flag conditions are not expected. Wind gusts will generally peak in the 20 to 25 mph range tomorrow, with some higher gusts up to 30 mph possible. The gusts will be relatively uniform, with slightly higher gusts in the higher terrain. Minimum relative humidity values will generally be between 40 to 55 percent tomorrow. Heading into the weekend, minimum relative humidity values should drop into the 30 to 45 percent range, but winds look to be much lighter. A weak front moves through the region later today and tonight, bringing some light rain showers, though a wetting rainfall is not expected. Persistent cloud cover tomorrow outside the far southern Champlain Valley and Lower Connecticut River Valley will help limit concerns a bit.

KEY MESSAGE 2: After the warm day today, a cold front comes through tonight and into early Friday. A few showers are possible across northern New York and the higher elevations of northern Vermont but with dry air aloft and weak forcing, they will be brief and only lead to a couple hundreths of an inch of rain locally. The highest amounts are expected in the northern Greens and the Adirondacks. Strong cold air advection will occur tomorrow with clouds in the typical upslope areas. A few lingering sprinkles and flurries will be possible in the higher terrain Friday. Surface high pressure builds overhead into the weekend, leading to mostly sunny skies and moderating temperatures. The Halloween forecast looks great with clear skies, light winds and temperatures quickly dropping from the 50s into the 30s during the evening. However, despite clear skies, any added ambiance from the moon will mostly be missing as it was full a couple days ago and will rise around 10:45 Halloween evening.

KEY MESSAGE 3: The weather pattern Monday through Wednesday will be fairly similar to what we have seen recently favoring mostly dry conditions but with no big area of high pressure overhead. Guidance has become a bit more consistent with the idea of another cold front slipping in from the north Monday afternoon or evening. Two of the four (instead of one of four as it was 24 hours ago) ensemble clusters/scenarios indicate this, and consistent with the latest run of the ECMWF now in line with this idea.

This boundary will bring chances for very light rain and a cloudier period with reinforcement of seasonably cool air. Chances for appreciable rain of reaching even 0.1" in the wetter scenarios is only about 15-40% in the Monday night-Tuesday morning period as the boundary sags slowly southward; near the International Border and higher terrain areas are where chances are sharply greater, including about a 70-85% chance of measurable rain.

Overall the model spread for high temperatures on Tuesday has decreased a bit, especially for southern portions of the region where the front will have less of an influence as it washes out. Generally our northern areas may trend a bit cooler from current high temperatures but a sharply colder air mass is favored to stay to our northeast.

A warming trend is expected during the middle of next week with as strongly amplifying upper air pattern expected. Temperatures are favored to be unusually warm to our west in the eastern Great Lakes region on Wednesday, trending that way for northern New York and western portions of Vermont where high temperatures are most likely to be more than 10 degrees above normal. The position of high pressure to our east may favor southeasterly flow in eastern Vermont that would temper warming in this part of our region. The gradient flow will also lead to a similarly mild overnight conditions.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 00Z Saturday...VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the next 24 hours. The only exception would be brief MVFR ceilingswith any light -shra overnight. Brisk SSW winds of earlier today will become variable AOB 6kts overnight and gradually shift WNW with fropa. WNW winds will increase 8 to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts during Friday.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE

Strong southerly winds will continue through the evening, sustained in the 20-30 KT range on the broad waters. The bays will be a little lighter but still elevated. Winds become westerly after midnight, with winds quickly decreasing to around and below 15 KT. Winds become northwesterly during the day tomorrow and increase back into the 15-25 KT range. Waves will peak this evening in the 1-3 foot range, before dropping into 0-1 foot range tonight. They increase back into the 1-3 foot tomorrow afternoon but this time with the highest ones in the southern waters instead of the northern waters.

EQUIPMENT

Routine observations from KSLK ASOS are unavailable until further notice. While the site is operating, it is not able to disseminate observations normally at this time. Technicians are aware of the issue, but time of return to service is unknown.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.