textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 751 PM EDT Wednesday...

The Flood Watch is expiring at 8 PM. Some showers remain possible tonight into tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 235 PM EDT Wednesday...

1. Periods of rain continue tonight through tomorrow. 2. Trending drier heading into the first half of the weekend.

3. Thunderstorm potential for Sunday and Monday, followed by a warming trend.

DISCUSSION

As of 235 PM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A surface low has tracked north through southern New England and into southern Vermont today, bringing an area of rain back into the region. The rain will attempt to continue north, but the low will be occluding and weakening. Rainfall rates with the band continue to decrease, with peak hourly amounts mostly around and below 0.3 inches. The rain will continue to lighten as the afternoon and evening progress, though some light rain will likely re-enter northern areas. Overall, around 1-3 inches has fallen, with additional amounts up to around an inch possible. Outside the main area of low pressure, areas of convection developed in the immediate St. Lawrence Valley this morning. A narrow strip of 2-3 inches has fallen in the Ogdensburg area and south, but it has not been enough to cause any flooding. The remaining convection is currently in the process of weakening. The terrain there is not very susceptible to flash flooding and it would take notably more rain to cause any. As the main area of low pressure makes its way north, the synoptic rain and clouds will minimize the instability, and subsidence in the areas just outside the shield of precipitation should start to dampen any additional convection as well. While widespread rainfall will continue into tomorrow, it will become scattered and mostly confined to eastern areas, except in the afternoon when diurnal heating will cause some weak convection. Overall, the flood threat has decreased. While an isolated area of flash flooding still cannot be completely ruled out in southern/central Vermont and Essex County, it is looking increasingly less likely.

KEY MESSAGE 2: The upper-level low becomes cut off and gradually exits heading through Friday, though the dynamics will be too weak and too far east to produce any more significant precipitation. However, isolated showers are possible on Friday due to the diurnal heating. Ridging briefly becomes established on Saturday, and the day should be mostly dry. Temperatures will be seasonable during this stretch, with highs in the 70s to mid 80s and lows in the 50s and low 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 3: On Sunday and Monday, showers and thunderstorms will move along a trough of low pressure. While the air mass will have plenty of moisture to tap into, we are looking at quick moving air mass thunderstorms. Given the wet antecedent conditions, we will continue to monitor this system for any potential impacts.

As the trough exits our region, high pressure will build in with dry and stable air. Tuesday and Wednesday will be significantly warmer than average, with valley locations reaching int the mid 80s for daytime highs and mid 50s to mid 60s for nighttime lows.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 12Z Friday...Closed/weakening 500mb low centered across sern NY at 0530Z will maintain VFR ceilings and areas of light rain across the North Country TAF sites this morning. Vsby will generally remain 6SM or higher, though brief MVFR conditions can't be ruled out. With daytime heating, scattered convective showers will develop during the afternoon hours with just a slight chance of thunder. Generally handled afternoon shower and isold tstm threat with PROB30 groups. As low shifts to the east, winds will generally go from light and variable to N/NE at 5-8kts for the balance of the daylight hours. Better potential for partial clearing Thursday night may lead to isold FG/BR potential 06-12Z Friday, especially at EFK/MPV/SLK.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite SHRA, Chance TSRA. Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.