textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 220 AM EDT Thursday...

No significant changes were made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 220 AM EDT Thursday...

1. Above normal temperatures and dry weather prevail through Friday.

2. Rain expected Saturday into Sunday with a few thunderstorms possible with embedded heavy rain.

3. Warm and dry conditions will start off next week, with little precipitation chances through mid next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 220 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Warm, continental air will continue tracking into the region. The dryness of the air has resulted pleasant sleeping conditions. Although the local forecast wisdom for 925mb temperatures seem a little cool to be approaching 90 F, the bright June sun should warm very efficiently with the dry air mass into the 80s across the area, with common hot spots like KBTV getting close to 90. With dewpoints in the 40s to lower 50s, as well as a steady southwesterly breeze of 5-10 mph, it should feel relatively pleasant. Still, it will be good to stay hydrated and take care to avoid heat-related illness.

Nighttime temperatures should fall efficiently, but to a lesser degree as low-level moisture starts increasing. Additionally, it seems we'll have patchy cloud cover. So low temperatures will likely only reach the mid 50s to mid 60s at night. Friday's temperatures will be very similar to today, and with higher dewpoints. It still won't be enough to make things muggy, but not quite as comfortable, and that means warmer nighttime lows in the 60s as well Friday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Friday night into Saturday, a pair of upper troughs will track through channeled flow. A broad, disorganized surface low will shift east along James Bay towards the Gulf of St. Lawrence. A tongue of enhanced moisture will surge ahead of it, and the moisture advection should allow for some nighttime showers, especially if there's any remnant convection embedded. The broad ridge will still be exerting its influence, and so most precipitation will likely track along the international border initially. During the day on Saturday, an upstream ridge begins to quickly amplify to the Hudson Bay. This begins to force the upper trough southwards in a similar pattern we've seen the last couple weekends. The surface low near the Gulf of St. Lawrence will start tracking southeastwards and slow down. There are some speed differences that will be relevant to Saturday's outlook. A faster system will shunt the better moisture plume south and bring the stronger cold front in during the overnight hours. A slower system will allow the better moisture plume into the region, as well as allow for more atmospheric instability on Saturday and more lingering showers into Sunday.

We'll continue to fine tune the forecast, but some interval of showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday. PWATs will run around 1.33-1.67", and storm motions could be erratic or involve some training. Tall, skinny CAPE profiles can also favor heavy precipitation. However, the favorability of dynamics are unclear, with the better instability and moisture plume appearing to be focused south. Different model scenarios indicate a swath of heavier rain, where there could be potential for heavy rain. Based on the NBM probabilities over 1.00", it seems the favored area is around the international border and into Montreal at 20-40%. For any severe threat, there may be a strong storm or two, but there will be a 700mb warm nose much of the day and relatively little shear or notably high instability due to poor lapse rates. Showers and storms will likely run into Saturday night with a stronger frontal boundary sagging south, but the poor time of day will limit coverage some. The cold front will cross south with some additional activity into the afternoon, mainly south. This will help bring some briefly cooler temperatures before we quickly rebound into the new week.

KEY MESSAGE 3: A bit of deja vu is in store next week with a return of strong ridging and little in the way of precipitation. temperatures will be nearly identical next week, albeit a day on the week calendar earlier, with highs peaking in the mid to upper 80s on Wednesday. Our pattern will be dominated by strong upper level ridging centered over the eastern Great Lakes with the ridge arching northeast overtop of upper level troughing along the Gulf Stream and Mid-Atlantic. While not a perfect case, a Rex Block looks possible heading into next week which would increase confidence in warm and dry conditions. How tilted the ridge axis becomes is not entirely certain between the ensembles, however, the main axis is at least further east than this weeks axis which would keep any backdoor cold fronts and troughing less favored. Keeping in mind our current temperature forecast through the end of this week, from Monday into Wednesday next week, temperatures will be nearly identical to this week for next week, albeit a day on the week calendar earlier, with highs peaking in the mid to upper 80s on Wednesday/Thursday next week, instead of on Thursday/Friday this week. Some models do denote the ridge sinks a bit south towards late next week for a brief reprieve from the heat, but the expectation is that it returns for next weekend. Expect temperatures to be above normal, with below normal precipitation for most of next week.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 12Z Friday...Persistent VFR conditions continue under surface high pressure through the TAF package. Skies will remain clear during the daytime hours with light flow at or under 10 knots, outside of MSS. Channeled flow will keep MSS around 10 knots, with occasional gusts between 15 to 20 knots this afternoon. Winds will start off terrain driven after sunrise, with southerly winds in the Champlain Valley. Winds will then turn westerly by the afternoon, outside of the St. Lawrence Valley where winds will remain southwesterly. Winds trend towards calm after sunset this evening outside of MSS, with weak (under 10 knots) downslope westerly winds between 00-05Z at PBG. Mid to high level cirrus and cirrostratus clouds return this afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday: MVFR. Definite SHRA, Chance TSRA. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

CLIMATE

Temperatures will be approaching daily record warm values on Thursday, June 4th, and Friday, June 5th. At this time, Plattsburgh (PBG) and Montpelier (MPV) have the greatest chances of setting a new record.

Record High Temperatures:

June 4: KMPV: 87/2025 KPBG: 88/1967

June 5: KMPV: 86/2025 KPBG: 90/2020

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 5: KPBG: 65/1963

June 6: KPBG: 67/1973

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.