textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 223 PM EDT Sunday...

No significant changes have been made to the forecast, with showers continuing to overspread the region this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 223 PM EDT Sunday...

1. Showers will continue through this afternoon and evening, with drier conditions expected heading into the week ahead.

2. Drier weather along with a warming trend is expected for the latter half of next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 223 PM EDT Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A shortwave pushing through the region will continue to bring additional showers this afternoon and evening. With cold air aloft and diurnal heating, a few rumbles of thunder will be possible this afternoon as well as the potential for some pea-sized hail within any stronger showers. Precipitation amounts throughout the day are expected to remain fairly light, with a few tenths of an inch possible for most locations. Overnight lows will be on the cool side once again, with temperatures dropping into the upper 30s to near 50. With warmer temperatures and lingering clouds, frost is not expected overnight. Additional isolated shower chances will be possible throughout the day Monday, driven by steep lapse rates and diurnal heating. The overall coverage is expected to be fairly limited during the day tomorrow, with very little rainfall accumulation expected. Temperatures during the day tomorrow will be more seasonable in comparison to the last few days, with high temperatures in the 60s to low 70s. Another cool night will be possible Monday night, which may lead to some additional frost concerns, especially in the Adirondacks and the Northeast Kingdom. Conditions are expected to trend drier and more seasonable as the week progresses as ridging slowly begins to build into the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2: High pressure builds across the Northeast CONUS on Wednesday and lingers through at least Friday morning. The result will be a few dry days and warming temperatures. A coastal low pressure system will develop off the Carolina coast and lift northeastward through this period as well, but the ridge will keep it shunted well to our south and east. Temperatures will warm into the mid 70s to mid 80s by Thursday, continuing into Friday. There are some indications that the wider valleys, including the Champlain and lower CT Valleys, could see highs rise into the upper 80s, but don't anticipate any 90F readings at this time. Luckily, dewpoints look to remain fairly comfortable, in the 40s and low/mid 50s. Shower/thunderstorm chances increase late Friday with a potential cold frontal passage. Timing of this boundary and how quickly it and its associated precipitation push south of our region is still uncertain. Right now, Friday night and Saturday morning look the most likely timeframe for precipitation, but some guidance indicates showers could linger into Sunday. Have stayed with the WPC/NBM forecast for the entire extended period given the uncertainty.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 18Z Monday...VFR conditions to mainly prevail through the first half of the TAF period, with a period of MVFR thereafter. Light rain showers will continue across the region this afternoon into the evening. Ceilings generally AOA 3500 ft through 00z, but some instability could allow for locally heavier showers, with ceilings occasionally dropping to 2500 ft and visibility 4-6SM. Any heavier activity would be capable of producing gusty winds to around 30 kt, some lightning, and possibly small hail. Rain ends by 00z or shortly thereafter, with SCT clouds to lower and thicken 06z-14z as a weak shortwave trough traverses across the region. Ceilings likely to lower to 1500-2500 ft during this time; localized IFR possible but confidence not high enough to include in the TAFs at this time. Clouds scatter out again after 14z, with VFR to prevail thereafter. SW to SE winds 4-8 kt early in the TAF period, turning to the N/NW after 20z with local gusts to 25 kt possible. Winds turn light and variable after 02z and generally remain under 8 kt through the remainder of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.