textproduct: Burlington

SYNOPSIS

Scattered snow showers will continue today and tonight, remaining mostly focused in the higher elevations. Otherwise, cold and breezy today with highs only in the single digits and teens. Our next chance of more widespread snow arrives New Years Eve, with most areas seeing 1 to 3 inches of snow by daybreak New Years Day. Seasonably cold weather continues into the New Year along with occasional chances for mountain snow showers.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 523 AM EST Tuesday...Snow showers continue across the region this morning, particularly in the Adirondacks and northern Greens/Northeast Kingdom. Seeing a few light flurries in locations such as Rutland and even here at BTV from time to time, so expanded slight chance PoPs a bit this morning to indicate some isolated shower activity. Otherwise, breezy and cold today; tweaked temperatures and winds/gusts to match the latest trends. Otherwise the forecast is in good shape and no other changes were needed.

Previous discussion...A potent upper low continues to spin just south of James Bay early this morning. This feature will slowly shift eastward today and tonight, eventually lifting north of the Gaspe Peninsula by early Wednesday morning. Hence we'll remain under cyclonic flow today and tonight. Cold air advection will persist today on brisk west winds and anticipate temperatures will likely fall through mid morning or so before becoming steady or perhaps warming just a bit this afternoon. Scattered snow showers will continue through the day and overnight tonight, mainly on the favored western upslope sides of the Adirondacks and northern/central Greens. A few inches of accumulation can be expected, mainly above 1000 ft. Cold air advection and steep low level lapse rates will allow for efficient mixing, and gusts of 25 to 35 mph are expected through today, and wouldn't be surprised to see occasional higher gusts on the downslope sides of the higher terrain. These winds combined with highs only in the single digits and teens will make for a very cold day. Wind chills will will stay within the -5F to -15F range through the day and into tonight, while the higher summits will likely see wind chills of -20F to -40F. Snow showers will gradually wane overnight as moisture decreases, but the cold will persist. Lows tonight will be in the single digits above and below zero.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 116 AM EST Tuesday...Our next shot of widespread snow arrives New Year's Eve as a shortwave trough rotates around the aforementioned upper low positioned to our northeast, while the surface low moves directly over region. The day starts out dry, with a lake effect band of Ontario pointed to our south on west winds. However, winds will shift toward the southwest by afternoon/evening Wednesday, lifting this lake effect band into central/southern VT and the Adirondacks. This will also help to enhance moisture with the incoming clipper system. Precipitation will spread from west to east Wednesday afternoon into the evening hours. While details are still a bit tough to nail down, a band of moderate to perhaps briefly heavy snow looks to develop downwind of Lake Ontario during the evening, stretching from the Adirondacks into the northern/central Champlain Valley and into the northern Greens. This feature will line up with an incoming cold front favorable frontogenesis, though instability will be lacking given the timing. Unfortunately, right now timing looks to be right around midnight for areas from the central Adirondacks eastward through the Champlain Valley and northern VT, which could make for some tricky New Years Eve travel. Exact snowfall amounts will depend on where the band sets up and/or how quickly it makes forward progress, but for now, expect a fairly widespread 1 to 2 inches of snow Wednesday and Wednesday night, with higher amounts of 2 to 4+ where/if the band develops. Temperatures drop sharply behind the front, so after daytime highs in the mid teens to mid 20s, temperatures will once again dip into the single digits above and below zero by daybreak New Year's Day.

Snow will come to a quick end early Thursday morning, so expect the New Year will start out dry. But it will be yet another cold day, with highs once again in the single digits to mid/upper teens.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 116 AM EST Tuesday...Broad cyclonic flow will dominate our region's weather for the end of the work week and through the weekend with periods of snow showers expected. No major storm systems are anticipated, with the best chances for accumulating snow being across the higher terrain and areas downwind of Lake Ontario Thursday night into early Saturday. Conditions will also be quite breezy on mountaintops during this period as mid/upper level wave energy moves overhead.

High pressure will likely dominate the weather pattern only briefly Sunday night before surface low pressure dives across the Great Lakes early next week, bringing renewed chances of precipitation. Temperatures will be average about 10-15 degrees below normal late this week into the first half of next week, with highs mainly in the single digits to low 20s, and lows in the single digits above and below zero.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 06Z Wednesday...Continued upslope snow showers will occur through tonight from wrap-around moisture. Westerly to northwesterly gusty winds will keep most of the moisture from the Great Lakes to the south. Flow looks to be very unblocked during this time, so the most persistent snow should fall along and east of mountain summits. Winds will be out of the northwest to west, gusting 15 to 40 knots over the next several hours and decreasing gradually throughout the day today. Mostly VFR conditions in the valley sites of PBG, BTV, and RUT with MVFR/IFR persisting at SLK, MPV, MSS and EFK with periods of snow showers. Conditions to slowly improve to MVFR/VFR at our mountain sites by late this afternoon. SLK is most likely site to see some IFR vis from snow showers through 16Z Tuesday, but any other site can also have IFR vis in a snow shower.

Outlook...

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. New Years Day: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.

MARINE

Sustained winds in the 15-30 kt range are expected to continue today into the overnight hours tonight. Waves will stay on the lower side due to the westerly component of the wind, so they are only expected to reach the 1-3 foot range for most places, though approaching 4 ft on the eastern side of the broad lake. Winds will drop to around 10 kt by late tonight night and waves will drop to around and below a foot.

EQUIPMENT

NOAA Weather Radio station WXM-44, transmitting from Mt. Ascutney, Vermont, on frequency 162.475 MHz is non-operational at this time. NWS technicians have diagnosed the problem, but repairs will likely not be able to occur for quite some time due to circumstances beyond our control. Therefore, the time of return to service is currently unknown. The following NOAA Weather Radio transmitters may be able to provide service during this outage: WWG 50 from Burke Mtn, VT at 162.425 MHz and WNG 546 from Hanover, NH at 162.525 MHz.

The Colchester Reef meteorological station is out of service. This site is not serviced by the NWS and there isn't an estimated return to service at present. Use extra caution when navigating the broad waters of Lake Champlain. Please contact us if you observe winds significantly deviating from the recreational forecast.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.