textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 226 PM EDT Thursday...

Trends continue to depict a dry slot between a pair of systems Saturday and Sunday for Vermont.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 226 PM EDT Thursday...

1. Dry and seasonable conditions are expected as we head into the weekend on Friday and Saturday.

2. A pair of systems will increase precipitation chances across northern New York and southeastern Vermont into the latter portion of the weekend.

3. Quiescent conditions next week

DISCUSSION

As of 226 PM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry and relatively seasonable conditions are expected to prevail through the end of the week with high pressure nudging into the region from the northwest. Ahead of the area of high pressure widespread mid to high clouds will remain over the area until tonight as dry air aloft helps to scour our mid to upper level moisture. Some light shower activity currently over southern New York may briefly kiss southern Rutland and Windsor Counties late this afternoon/evening (rain chances less than 20%), though with dewpoint depressions between 20-30 degrees, any radar returns will likely fall as virga or just light sprinkles. Clouds will clear this evening for most of the region, outside of perhaps southeastern Vermont, with some lingering low level moisture. Decoupling, similar to last night, will lead to patchy valley fog in the favored locations. Locations near Lake Champlain may also see a lake cloud reduce visibilities due to the temperature difference between the cooling air and the warmer Lake Champlain. Temperatures overnight tonight will fall into the upper 40s to low 50s for most areas; mid 50s for the Champlain Valley. Fog will scour out after sunrise tomorrow morning with a pleasant day on Friday. Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 70s to near 80 tomorrow with mostly clear skies. Light northerly channeled flow in the Champlain Valley may create some light breezes, but by and large calm and variable winds will be the theme across the area tomorrow. Clouds begin to increase across southeastern Vermont late Friday into Saturday as a weak coastal low in southern New England tracks up the coast. Temperatures Friday night will be cooler across the northern and western cloud free locations falling into the upper 40s to low 50s; mid 50s for the Champlain Valley and southern Vermont. Shower activity will increase as the coastal system and an approaching Great Lakes trough move about New England through the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Following a calm start to the weekend, conditions will turn more wet and showery by the latter portion of the weekend. As high pressure drifts to the northwest, it will leave in its wake an area of subsidence and subtle ridging centered from northeast to southwest across Vermont Saturday and Sunday. A pair of systems will split this area of ridging bringing shower chances to portions of the area. The first of the two systems will be a weak coastal low along the coast of southern New England, which will track near Cape Cod and is expected to continue moving northeast out into the Gulf of Maine. Some showers may be possible in eastern Windsor and Orange Counties Saturday afternoon and evening, however, recent trends have suggested precipitation associated with the coastal system will stay east of the Connecticut River. Any showers that do develop in southeastern Vermont will be light in nature.

The second, higher confidence, system will be an approaching long wave trough that will track east from the Great Lakes region. The trough translates east into the St. Lawrence Valley late Saturday into early Sunday, with scattered rounds of showers. The trough slowly tracks east through the day Sunday reaching Vermont by late Sunday into Sunday night. While an isolated rumble of thunder with the shower activity cannot be ruled out, chances are decreasing with poor mid level lapse rates, cool surface temperatures, and a lack of true instability. In all likelihood, the boundary will be a mess of scattered to isolated showers with some breaks in between, focused mainly over northern New York, and somewhat weakening as it moves east. Between both systems during the day Saturday, and most of Sunday, Vermont will be straddled between in a "no mans land" of dry and cloudy conditions. Chances for showers do not increase for Vermont until Sunday afternoon, though some isolated sprinkles or mist, especially in the higher terrain, due to low to mid level stratus clouds. Precipitation amounts will be light, especially across Vermont, with probabilities of half an inch in the 25th to 75th percentiles, and probabilities of an inch or more below 25%. The higher amounts around a quarter to half an inch will be in northern New York, primarily in the northern St. Lawrence Valley. Lower amount expected in central and northern Vermont. The trough will pull away to the northeast heading towards Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 3: The extended forecast begins with the precipitation associated with Sunday's trough moving east of the region and a surface high pressure moving in behind. The high pressure will dominate for most of the rest of the week. Daytime highs will gradually increase from the mid 70s into the upper 70s throughout the week. By late week, the flow turns more zonal and could allow for precipitation to return. A couple weak systems appear will try to make their way into our CWA Thursday and Friday, but impactful weather is not anticipated at this time.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 18Z Friday...VFR conditions will prevail today, with winds remaining under 10kt. Some high clouds are streaming in, developing into a BKN200 deck by this afternoon. Overnight, calm winds will allow fog development in the climatologically preferred areas. SLK and MPV are the surest bet for IFR conditions overnight with EFK a little less certain. MSS could go down as well, but for now showing vis reducing into MVFR criteria.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.