textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 322 AM EDT Friday...

No significant changes have been made to the forecast at this time.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 322 AM EDT Friday...

1. Showers possible today and Saturday with drier weather expected Sunday and Monday.

2. Several rounds of showers will be possible next week, but no significant weather is expected.

DISCUSSION

As of 322 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: An upper level low will be anchored to our northeast today with a weak shortwave moving through the longwave trough. This energy is expected to spark isolated showers this afternoon but the lack of any appreciable instability or moisture will keep the areal coverage low and the intensity light. We will see an increase in shower activity across the region on Saturday as a second shortwave helps to deepen the low to our northeast and the low sinks to the southeast. This will increase mid-level lift while increasing mid- level lapse rates and therefore slightly increase instability. With east/northeast winds in the low to mid levels, we should advect in some Atlantic moisture which will also aid in increasing the areal coverage of showers. However, precipitation rates will remain meager with just some periodic light rain throughout the day on Saturday. Deep layer ridging will build overhead on Sunday and continue into Monday which will keep seasonably cool temperatures in the forecast while also bringing plentiful sunshine and dry weather.

KEY MESSAGE 2: After a seasonable and dry holiday weekend, chances for showers look to return throughout next week, although no significant weather is expected at this time. Starting with Monday night into Tuesday, a cold front looks to push across the region driving shower activity, although rainfall will be limited given lack of deep moisture. As the week progresses, several shortwaves look to move through, bringing chances for light rain showers each day, with Thursday possibly seeing the most coverage. Despite the chances for showers, no day looks to be a complete washout at this time given the showery nature of the precipitation, but an extended period of dry weather is not expected either. Temperatures for next week look to be on the cool side for the most part, with high temperatures in the upper 60s and 70s through the week and overnight lows in the 40s and 50s.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 12Z Saturday...With the exception of morning fog, VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout much of the forecast period. Fog will continue to dissipate over the next hour or so, with all terminals expected to trend VFR towards 13Z or so. Partly sunny skies will prevail through much of the afternoon with a scattered cloud deck with ceilings generally between 5000-7000 ft AGL. A few isolated showers may pop up this afternoon, although there is low confidence in impacts to terminals so mention of showers was largely left out of the TAFs, with the exception of a PROB30 group at KEFK where there is slightly higher probabilities of seeing precipitation. Additional fog or lower clouds may develop overnight after 06Z, but given the uncertainty have only hinted at this potential for now. Winds will trend northwesterly through the morning, generally 5 to 10 knots with a few gust 15 to 20 knots possible through the afternoon before trending light and variable this evening.

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Patchy BR. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Labor Day: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.