textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 234 AM EDT Thursday...

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 234 AM EDT Thursday...

1. Dry before showers return late Saturday and Sunday.

2. Upper troughing and slightly cooler weather arrive for Monday into Tuesday of next week along with a few showers, after which drier and warmer conditions return by the mid to late week time frame.

DISCUSSION

As of 234 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry and relatively seasonable conditions will prevail through the end of the week with low humidity. Highs will be in the 70s and low 80s and lows will be in the 40s and 50s away from Lake Champlain. A primary area of low pressure will develop over the Great Lakes on Saturday and a secondary low will try to form off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The primary low looks to track northeast and into Quebec, while the low off the Mid-Atlantic looks to travel up the eastern seaboard. The idea is that these two lows should eventually phase over Quebec or Atlantic Canada, past our region. Showers are likely Saturday night over northern New York from the primary low, and these will gradually track eastward. Showers are possible late Saturday into Saturday night in southern areas from the secondary low, but whether these can reach the region or stay south is uncertain. Some showers are expected region-wide on Sunday as the parent low passes east. While a couple rumbles of thunder are possible during the day, instability will be very low due to a lack of consistent sunshine and a cooler airmass. GEFS/EPS/CMCE probabilities of a half inch of rain are between 25-75 percent, with the lowest values over central and northern Vermont which look to get sandwiched between the two lows. Probabilities of an inch are below 25 percent.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Model consensus remains in decent agreement showing a broad longwave trough pulling through the eastern quarter of the nation early in the long term portions of the forecast. The best chance of showers/isolated thunder comes Sunday night into Monday with passage of an accompanying surface trough/front. Sensible conditions trend drier from Tuesday onward with slightly warmer temperatures as upper trough pulls out to the northeast and is replaced by broad surface high pressure. That said, not a whole lot of airmass change is shown across these features over time as surface pressure gradients and synoptic-scale thermal advective processes remain light. As such, daily highs to generally range from the mid 70s to lower 80s with overnight lows in the upper 40s through the 50s through the period with "coolest" day being Monday. So generally quite pleasant for any late summer outdoor activities.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 06Z Friday...Patchy MVFR/IFR in BR at selected terminals through 12Z (MPV/SLK/MSS/EFK), otherwise VFR expected through the period under light winds less than 10 kts. SCT/BKN cigs in the 015-045 AGL range at SLK/EFK overnight, otherwise mainly SKC with just some passing high clouds AOA 200 AGL.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Patchy BR. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.