textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 927 AM EDT Monday...

Small forecast update this morning. Tweaks to increase winds on Lake Champlain this morning and for this evening, as well as to increase temperatures across the region, which are warming faster ahead of the cold front than previously forecasted.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 216 AM EDT Monday...

1. A cold front will bring a roller coaster of temperatures to the region through Thursday.

2. Some light rain will be possible late Thursday as a frontal boundary moves through the region, with mostly dry and seasonably warm weather prevail late this week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

As of 216 AM EDT Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front will bring light rain showers to portions of northern New York and the higher terrain of Vermont this morning and early this afternoon. Model soundings continue to show a plethora of dry air in the low levels which will likely inhibit much, if not all, rainfall from making it into the deeper valleys. Still, any location that does receive rain today will see well under a tenth of an inch and will only be for a brief period of time. High pressure will quickly build across the region Tuesday with strong cold air advection leading to noticeably cooler temperatures on Tuesday. For example, we will see temperatures warm into the mid 50s to mid 60s today but see temperatures struggle to warm into the mid to upper 40s on Tuesday. Several locations in Vermont have the potential to see record lows Wednesday morning as temperatures fall into the mid teens to lower 20s. This cool down will be short-lived as warm advection will begin on Wednesday and will allow for temperatures to moderate back into the lower 60s by Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: With the exception of a few chances for showers Thursday night, mostly dry and seasonably warm weather is expected for late this week into the weekend. Another weak cold front looks to move through the region late Thursday, with the potential for some light rain showers, particularly across northern portions of the forecast area. Heading into the weekend, drier weather looks to prevail, especially for Saturday. Temperatures later this week into the weekend look to be seasonably warm, with daytime high temperatures climbing into the mid 50s and lower 60s and overnight lows falling into the 30s and 40s.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 18Z Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions today with exception of brief MVFR ceilings as cold front drops across our area. Some light rainfall has been observed as well. All terminals will trend back to VFR by 00z and are expected to remain that way for the remainder of the forecast period. Winds tonight will generally be light and terrain influences, increasing out of the south/southwest towards morning. Behind the front, winds shift to become more northwesterly and may be gusty at BTV and PBG with channeled flow.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

EQUIPMENT

Routine observations from KSLK ASOS are unavailable until further notice. While the site is operating, it is not able to disseminate observations normally at this time. Technicians are aware of the issue, but time of return to service is unknown.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.