textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 226 AM EDT Friday...

Conditions for today seem less muggy than anticipated, but still plenty warm and humid.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 226 AM EDT Friday...

1. Very warm today, but a little less humid than expected. Thunderstorm chances will not be as high today.

2. Intervals of showers and thunderstorms with warm, humid conditions will continue

3. After a period of warm and humid weather, cooler temperatures are expected next week with additional chances for showers.

DISCUSSION

As of 226 AM EDT Friday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Our anticipated warm, moist pattern from a Bermuda High and Hudson Bay upper low has arrived in full swing. Yesterday's thunderstorm activity was not quite as widespread as anticipated, but what did develop produced very heavy rainfall rates along the foothills of the Adirondacks, especially along Ticonderoga, NY east into Shoreham, VT. For today, another hot and humid day is expected, although guidance is suggesting more appreciable dry subsidence this afternoon. As a result, dewpoints appear to mix out from the upper 60s to lower 70s, down into the mid 60s (maybe even lower 60s) during the afternoon. So it appears like we will just avoid needing heat headlines again, even with toasty mid 80s to lower 90s across the region. With the drier conditions aloft, thunderstorm coverage should be minimal. We lack any forcing, and so mainly a couple spot showers or storms will be possible on eastern slopes of the Adirondacks positioned where it interfaces with the summertime lake breeze off Lake Champlain.

KEY MESSAGE 2: For tonight, a compact, but relatively vigorous trough will lift northeast. The warm, humid air will be capable of producing nocturnal convection, with 1000-1500 J/kg of mid-level CAPE. This could make for some nighttime rumbles of thunder heading into Saturday. This trough will amble east by Saturday morning. , but another trough hot on its heels will result in some scattered showers and thunderstorms once again. The axis of the trough slides through Saturday night, and so a few lingering showers will be possible heading into Sunday. Before more stable air arrives, instability will begin to increase after sunrise, and so a few thunderstorms may spark across eastern Vermont during the day on Sunday. Overall, though, Sunday will be dry for much of the area.

Behind the system on Sunday, there is a pocket of drier air that will filter in. Our dewpoints should briefly fall below 60 during the day. If clouds ahead of the next system can hold out long enough, then we may be able to radiate out for somewhat more comfortable sleeping conditions Sunday night into Monday. There's on last surge of warm, humid weather ahead of another trough coming through Monday afternoon and evening. Vorticity embedded within the upper low will dig southeast, and start driving cooler towards our area. This will result in a strengthening frontal boundary ahead of developing low pressure near Montreal. The focusing mechanism and increasing shear may make Monday a day to watch for some stronger storms before we make the transition to cooler, but still showery conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 3: The start of next will feature seasonably warm conditions, although less humid compared to previous days as the Bermuda high weakens and westerly flows prevails across the region. Highs at the start of the week will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s, but by the middle of the week they will drop a few degrees to be in the lower 70s and low 80s. A cold front looks to move through the region sometime late Monday into Tuesday, bringing widespread showers and a few possible thunderstorms, although the timing of the boundary will have a large influence on any convective elements. Additional showers may be possible towards the middle of next week, although there still plenty of uncertainty at this time frame.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 12Z Saturday...Lingering fog this morning continues to bring variable flight conditions to the region, ranging from MVFR to LIFR depending on the terminal. Over the next few hours fog will continue to dissipate with all terminals expected to trend VFR by 14Z or so, with these VFR conditions prevailing much of the day today. Winds will generally be light throughout the entire forecast period. A few chances for showers may be possible this afternoon, but it looks to be drier than the previous day and with low confidence have left any mention out of the forecast. Another night of fog development may be possible at the tail end of the forecast period.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.