textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 225 AM EDT Saturday...

The forecast is in good shape. No major changes needed.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 242 AM EDT Saturday...

1. Dry and cool through Sunday.

2. Increasing warmth early next week with possible light rain along the international border.

3. Breezes will be likely ahead of the next precipitation chances expected next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 242 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Surface high pressure will build into northern New York and Vermont throughout the day. It will be a chilly day to wrap up the month of October with temperatures lingering in the 40s for most locations. Mountain clouds may briefly scatter out, but an upper vort will quickly dive southeast and produce some additional mid to high clouds mid-afternoon into the evening hours.

Main concern for today will be continued low humidity across the region. Eastern slopes of the Adirondacks into south-central Vermont will likely observe minimum relative humidities from 30-40%. Areas north will likely see values in the 40-50% range. Modest mixing, but overall light flow should keep sustained winds around 5-10 mph with a few gusts around 15-18 mph during the afternoon.

High pressure will be overhead, and so efficient radiational cooling is expected. Trick-or-treaters can expect a chilly experience, but at least it will not be the wet and windy weather of last year. Temperatures will quickly fall into the 30s after sunset, and overnight lows will reach into the 20s for most. During the pre-dawn hours, southwesterly flow will become reestablished as high pressure moves offshore. Moderating conditions will bring temperatures up into the mid 50s to near 60 by Sunday afternoon. Initially low dewpoints will begin to rise, and relative humidity will become less of a concern. Minimum relative humidity values on Sunday will likely be at or above 40% outside a few localized areas in the Upper Valley.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Scanning through the early part of next week, guidance continues to trend away from a cold frontal passage Monday night into Tuesday. This means warm advection is slated to begin a bit sooner. Temperatures will warm into the upper 50s to mid 60s during the afternoon, with clouds north. A mid to upper level ridge tilted northwest to southeast should let some moisture crest over its axis over the eastern Great Lakes region. It's possible some rain will be within our side of the international border. Amounts, if any, will be light. Even without the rain, there will be greater sky cover. This will limit heating a bit for Tuesday, but it will still likely climb into the upper 50s to mid 60s during the afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Models continue to depict a full meridional trough to approach late next week. Consensus is moderately strong that ridging will slowly slide eastward Tuesday into Wednesday as a large area of low pressure is favored to develop over the Plains while jet energy is projected to dip into the the southern states. The result could be a more mature type front and system passage sometime between Wednesday night and Friday night. Passage timing remains most suspect given the dependence on the movement speed of a large, semi- persistent ridge. However, the pressure gradient will likely be compounded across the Northeast Wednesday into Thursday supporting some southerly breezes and promoting gusts 20-30 mph, especially in channeled areas like the northern Champlain Valley. As for precipitation, models are split on how exactly the front moves through with some supporting a split energy scenario pointing a weaker initial wave with potential for an upper low moving in over the following weekend. Others remain more consolidated with the wave pushing a moderately strong front through the region with an upper low dragging behind. Either way, some rain seems probable towards the end of next week. Details on "when" and "how much" should become clearer over the next few days.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 12Z Sunday...VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period with flow out of the northwest generally 5 to 10kts. This direction will promote some potential for increasing clouds 17-03Z as clouds advect in out of Canada. Could see some weak mountain waves continuing as well which are presently evident on satellite images. As such, some generally light turbulence can be expected in the vicinity of ridge level altitudes. Best chances at MVFR CIG will be at MPV/SLK, but may not consolidate given very dry boundary layer. Winds begin to turn more westerly late in the period limiting upslope and ushering in more clearing.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.