textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 223 AM EDT Thursday...

No significant changes were made with this forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 223 AM EDT Thursday...

1. Dry and seasonably warm weather will continue through the end of the week as high pressure settles over the region.

2. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to return to the region next week as a series of shortwaves cross the Northeast, ushering in seasonably cooler conditions by midweek.

DISCUSSION

As of 223 AM EDT Thursday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: An upper trough is pivoting across Quebec and northern New England/NY early this morning. Meanwhile, surface high pressure is building eastward across the Great Lakes. The upper trough is mainly producing just some scattered cloud cover, though some light rain has been noted over southern portions of St Lawrence County. The incoming airmass associated with the high is quite dry, so anticipate this will wane over the next few hours as ridging moves overhead. This fair weather will settle over our area for the remainder of the week. Each day will feature plentiful sunshine, with highs gradually increasing as we head into the weekend. We'll start out with highs in the 70s to around 80F today, and topping out in the 80s to near 90F by Saturday and Sunday. Thankfully, humidity will remain at comfortable levels as dewpoints are expected to be in the 40s and 50s, perhaps nudging into the low 60s by Sunday. The dry air and mostly clear skies will result in optimal radiational cooling tonight and Thursday night, and lows will be in the mid 40s to mid 50s both nights. Winds could be a little on the breezy side this afternoon, but these should lessen by tonight as the pressure gradient slackens. A cold front starts to approach from Ontario/Great Lakes later Sunday, and some guidance indicates that a few showers/thunderstorms may make it into northern NY before sunset. However, general expectations are the bulk of any precipitation will hold off until after dark.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Upper level closed low pressure will rotate across the Hudson Bay into Quebec for much of next week, sending a series of shortwaves through northern New York and Vermont. The first is set to move through Sunday night, though high pressure and drier air locked in across Nova Scotia looks to hinder its eastward progression through the forecast area and limit measurable precipitation. Chances of a shower or thunderstorm Sunday night are around 0 to 25%, highest across northern New York. Southerly to southwesterly flow will keep low temperatures seasonable to warm in the mid 50s to mid 60s Sunday night, then allow temps to climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s on Monday despite scattered showers and thunderstorms (20 to 60% chance precip, highest in northern New York) as moisture finally lifts into the region. Lingering showers and clouds Monday night will keep temperatures seasonably warm in the mid 50s to mid 60s again before a weak surface low crosses the Great Lakes and another low pressure strengthens in the mid-Atlantic on Tuesday, bringing a more widespread round of showers and thunderstorms to the region. Tuesday afternoon looks like the most likely period for some showers and thunderstorms with 60-80% chance of measurable precipitation as some deterministic models are depicting the shortwave as a closed low aloft, but this may change as we get closer. As waves pass through next week, they will take with them small chunks of heat and moisture, gradually knocking our temperatures and humidity levels down into midweek. By next Wednesday, highs will be widespread 70s, and lows should fall into the 50s and lower 60s, all slightly below seasonal normals.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 06Z Friday...VFR conditions will likely prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24 hours with the exception of SLK and MPV. Given the recent rainfall, there is the potential for some MVFR or lower conditions to occur at SLK and MPV around 08Z-14Z Thursday due to fog development. There remains some question, however, on the timing and persistence of any fog, especially as winds persist at MPV and clouds are headed for SLK to cut off radiational cooling. At the moment, using model data and climatological history, highest chance of IFR/LIFR will be from 08Z through 11Z Thursday at SLK, but this could chance based on cloud positioning and winds as we move through the early morning hours. Otherwise, high pressure building through the end of the week will bring dry weather. Current northwesterly winds are expected to turn more southwesterly early this morning, with many sites becoming light or even calm. A northwesterly low level jet aloft could produce a few hours of LLWS at northern sites like SLK and EFK as it passes from west to east early this morning. Then around 14Z-17Z Thursday, surface winds will increase again out of the west-northwest 5-15 knots, with southwesterly flow persisting in the St. Lawrence Valley and resulting in gusts at MSS 10-20 knots due to channeled flow 17Z Thursday onwards.

Outlook...

Friday: VFR. Friday Night: VFR. Saturday: VFR. Saturday Night: VFR. Sunday: VFR. Sunday Night: VFR. Monday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.