textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 157 AM EDT Wednesday...

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 157 AM EDT Wednesday...

1. Dry and warm weather is expected from today through Friday as surface and upper level ridges build over the region.

2. Warm and showery conditions, possibly with thunderstorms, for the weekend, with a return to dry weather into next week.

DISCUSSION

As of 157 AM EDT Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Warming temperatures are expected over the next few days with maximum temperatures ranging through the 80s each afternoon. Large ridges of surface and upper level high pressure will be over the northeastern CONUS. Minimum temperatures will range through the 50s and 60s each overnight. The high will start to break down and slide southeastward on Friday making way for approaching low pressure system which will bring rain to our area over the weekend. Dewpoints will remain pretty low through the period, therefore comfortable humidity levels and we don't have to be concerned about heat risk this time.

KEY MESSAGE 2: An upper trough is progged to ride along the northern periphery of an southward retreating upper ridge across our region heading into the weekend, is association with an area of cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes Sunday. A slow moving frontal boundary will slide south over the course of the weekend with precipitation chances Saturday greatest over the International Border and St. Lawrence Valley, shifting south into the rest of the region on Sunday. Depending on cloud cover associated with the front, in addition to how much daytime heating occurs, some rumbles of thunder are possible both Saturday and Sunday afternoon, though overall dynamic guidance denotes only marginal thunder possibilities. More notably is that precipitable water forecast is consistently around 1.5 to 1.75 inches in both the deterministic, AI, and ensemble models. As a result any showers could have locally heavy rain associated with them, in addition to any possible thunderstorm activity. Precipitable water forecasts across the St. Lawrence Valley and eastern Vermont are in the 90th percentile Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning on the NAEFS. Given the extent of the dryness leading up to the rain this weekend, do not anticipate much concern with regards to a flood risk, though some river rises can be expected especially if a basin receives any thunderstorms Saturday, followed by additional steadier light rain Sunday.

Temperatures this weekend will cool to more seasonable levels with highs in the mid to upper 70s to near 80, with comfortable humidity levels as dewpoints look to be in the upper 40s to low 50s. Into early next week, large scale ridging looks to build in from the northwest with ensembles favoring a return to dry and warm conditions.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 06Z Thursday...High confidence in all terminal VFR conditions through the entire TAF period. There is a low chance of some 6SM mist near MSS (25% or less) similar to last night, though confidence is lower this morning and was left out of the TAF. Weak LLWS also may be present early this morning due to calm surface winds and a 20 to 25 knot at 2000ft agl, though any LLWS will decrease with sunrise and impacts will be minimal. Light northwest gradient flow will develop between 12 and 15Z this morning with winds 10 knots or less expected. A lake breeze is likely at PBG into this afternoon. Winds will trend calm once again beyond sunset this evening. MSS should see persistent west to southwest flow into tonight due to some subtle channeled flow. High clouds this morning will trend clear during the day, with a return of high clouds by this evening.

Outlook...

Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA. Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA.

CLIMATE

Temperatures will be approaching daily record maximums on Thursday. At this time, Plattsburgh (PBG) has the greatest likelihood of reaching its current record of 88 degrees set on June 4th, 1967.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.