textproduct: Burlington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 219 PM EST Wednesday...

No significant changes made.

KEY MESSAGES

As of 219 PM EST Wednesday...

1. Scattered rain showers will impact the region on Thursday, with rainfall amounts ranging between a few hundredths to a few tenths of an inch.

2. Unsettled weather with temperatures slowly returning closer to normal expected on Saturday. 3. Drier early next week with showers later in the week.

DISCUSSION

As of 219 PM EST Wednesday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: GOES-19 mid lvl water vapor imagery indicates ridge and subsidence is directly overhead this aftn while ribbons of better mid lvl moisture is angling toward the SLV/western NY. Meanwhile, deep and closed off vertically stacked cyclonic circulation is over the northern Plains with strong southerly warm-moist conveyor belt acrs the Ohio Valley. This deep moisture advection, combined with initial pre-trof 700-500mb s/w energy wl result in a broken line of showers on Thurs. Crnt proggs have highest probability of precip btwn 12z-18z, with secondary line of precip possible btwn 21z-00z. Did note a weak sliver of MUCAPE of 150-300 J/kg, so a rumble or two of thunder is possible. However, given the weak thermodynamics and forcing confidence is low on thunder, so have not mention in grids attm. Rainfall amounts wl vary from one to location to another, given the scattered nature of showers, but with pw values 1.25 to 1.40" a few heavier downpours are possible. Basin average rainfall mainly btwn 0.10 and 0.25" with highest values over the High Peaks in Essex County, NY.

A very warm night is anticipated tonight with lows mid 40s to near 60F, due to increasing clouds and southerly flow. Coolest values deeper protected valleys of central/eastern VT and warmest CPV. As gradient strengthens btwn approaching cold front and departing ridge the 925mb to 850mb wind fields increase btwn 25 and 45 knots tonight into Thurs. The latest RRFS sounding profiles at BTV and CLCR show 300 feet agl winds of 25 to 35 knots, but warmer air moving over cooler warm suggests a stable bl. Still believe with 33 knots at 300 feet agl a Lake Wind Advisory wl be required tonight into Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Latest synoptic scale progs show additional deepening of mid/upper lvl cyclonic circulation over the central Great Lakes, while elongated vorticity and associated sfc boundary is draped acrs the eastern seaboard. The system looks just a little unphased on Friday with our cwa underneath mid lvl dry slot. This should result in a mostly dry Friday with comfortable temps well into the 60s. As closed circulation moves toward western NY/PA weak low pres develops over SNE coast with invert trof extending back toward central NY. This complex mid/upper system and associated track of sfc low pres and placement/amount of precip on Friday night into Saturday is still to be determined. The highest probabilities from the NBM are acrs central/eastern VT attm, but would not be surprised if chances expand back toward northern NY, given the closed circulation. As system evolves on Saturday, expect developing cyclonic upslope flow to occur, placing highest pops/qpf acrs the northern Dacks into the central/northern Greens. Still some uncertainty on timing of upslope flow and when the cooler air aloft arrives. Temps wl be slowly stepping back toward normal by this upcoming weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Early next week is looking drier as large ridge of surface high pressure builds over the eastern Conus. The amplification and break down of this ridge area both handled differently between the GFS and ECMWF. The GFS brings the ridge in faster and pushes it further north, while the ECMWF shunts it off to our south. For the second half of the week, the weather looks more active as we will have upper level trough overhead and shortwaves passing through upper level flow bringing several chances for showers.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 00Z Friday...VFR conditions are expected to last through the night. An organized round of showers will move through from west to east, starting at MSS around 11Z. They will then reach EFK by around 14-15Z. They will last a couple hours and then exit, with a lingering isolated shower or two possible behind. For most cases, they will not be heavy enough to significantly reduce the visibility, though a brief occurrence of MVFR will still be possible. As the showers move in, ceilings will begin to lower. By around 18-21Z, they should be MVFR for most terminals. LLWS is expected at MSS and RUT for periods of the night, and while it may not hit formal criteria elsewhere, it will still be strong. Winds will generally be around and under 10 KT tonight from the south and southwest. During the day tomorrow, they will increase into the 10-20 KT range for most terminals, with gusts to 25 KT possible at BTV, PBG and MSS.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA. Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance RA. Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Likely SHRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA. Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.

MARINE

A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for tonight. Expect south winds 5 to 15 knots this evening to increase to 15 to 25 knots after midnight while peaking just prior to rain arrival on Thursday morning. A few localized gusts up to 30 knots is possible near sunrise on Thursday, before winds decrease below advisory criteria. Wave build 1 to 3 feet overnight into Thursday morning.

CLIMATE

As of 228 PM EST Wednesday...

Extreme warmth for this time of year is likely today. As a result, some daily record temperatures may be set, with the greatest chance at KMSS.

High Temperatures: Site | Record KMSS | 71 (2022) KBTV | 73 (1982) KPBG | 72 (1990) KMPV | 72 (2022) KSLK | 74 (1944) SJBV1 | 73 (1990)

High minimum temperature record for today: Site | Record | Forecast KBTV | 54 (2022) | 56

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

VT...None. NY...None.