textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

DISCUSSION

Issued at 945 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

The forecast continues to trend a bit wetter, at least through the weekend. An inverted mid-level trough of low pressure will retrograde west from the western Gulf of America into northeast Mexico, where it will then linger and transition into a broad 500 mb low. Combined with precipitable water (PWAT) values that will hover around two inches and daytime heating, the result will be the risk for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday through Sunday, with the least chance of rain occurring Thursday, and the greatest chance of precipitation projected for Saturday. After the weekend, with the dissipation of the 500 mb low, mid-level high pressure building-in from the east, and PWAT values decreasing to around 1.5 inches, dry weather will return.

Temperature-wise, no real extreme values are anticipated, with near normal highs inching-up to slightly above normal levels at the start of the new work week as the mid-level high increases its influence on Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Mainly some mid to high level clouds and light southeast winds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. However, there is a low chance of convection for today which may produce brief periods of MVFR conditions at times. Light winds overnight will become breezy later this morning into the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 945 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Surface high pressure positioned over the central to northeast Gulf of Mexico, and extended along the Lower Texas Coast, will interact with varying intensity with thermal low pressure over inland Mexico. This will produce generally moderate winds and seas for the lower Texas coastal waters. Although Small Craft Advisory is not likely to be needed, Small Craft Should Exercise Caution cannot be entirely ruled out due to winds, especially over the Laguna Madre and Gulf of America waters from 0 to 20 nautical miles offshore.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 93 78 91 78 / 10 10 10 0 HARLINGEN 94 75 93 76 / 20 0 10 0 MCALLEN 96 77 95 78 / 20 0 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 96 75 95 76 / 10 10 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 79 86 80 / 10 10 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 77 90 78 / 20 10 10 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.