textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 617 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

- There is a Slight (level 2 of 4) to Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall along the coast Monday.

- Temperatures should be closer to seasonal levels this week.

- There is a high risk of rip currents at area beaches through Monday with the potential for tidal run-up.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1038 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

The rainy pattern is forecast to continue this week, as a stationary boundary sits off the Lower Texas Coast. By mid week, this boundary looks to move further offshore, however, an upper level trough digging south into Texas late this week could again increase rain chances through Friday.

A lingering potential for flooding rain is anticipated Monday, primarily along the coast. The Weather Prediction Center has a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall for portions of Cameron and Willacy counties, and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for western Cameron, Willacy, and portions of Hidalgo and Kenedy counties Monday. Probabilistic guidance supports rainfall amounts generally between 2-3 inches across eastern portions of Cameron and Willacy counties, and an inch or less across much of the remainder of the CWA. While rain chances remain elevated through the week, daily accumulations are forecast to generally be an inch or less through the remainder of the week.

Northerly to northeasterly winds are forecast to continue through the week, supporting a cooler pattern. High temperatures are forecast to remain in the 80s Monday, before gradually climbing back to the mid to upper 90s by the end of the week. Low temperatures are forecast to generally remain in the low to mid 70s this week.

The National Hurricane Center has a 40% chance for tropical cyclone development in the Southern Gulf around mid-week. It is too early to tell what if any impacts Deep South Texas might see if development occurs.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Continued difficult flying conditions will occur at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours, with lowered ceilings and waves of heavy showers. Light to moderate surface winds will also occur.

MARINE

Issued at 1038 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Hazardous to adverse marine conditions are forecast to continue through the morning, with conditions gradually improving through mid week. Northeasterly winds are forecast to increase again through the later half of the week, likely supporting increased seas and Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines or Small Craft Advisories.

The National Hurricane Center has a 40% chance for tropical cyclone development in the Southern Gulf around mid-week. It is too early to tell what if any impacts the Lower Texas Coast might see if development occurs.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 86 75 87 76 / 90 90 60 30 HARLINGEN 86 71 89 71 / 70 70 40 20 MCALLEN 86 74 90 74 / 60 40 30 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 86 72 90 71 / 40 20 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 85 79 85 80 / 100 90 80 70 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 86 76 87 75 / 90 90 60 50

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ135- 155-175.