textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 958 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

* A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for inland Deep South Texas, with the exception of Zapata and coastal/island counties, from 12 PM to 6 PM Tuesday. See the FIRE WEATHER section for more details.

* Warmer than normal temperatures can be expected through early next week with rain-free conditions continuing.

* A heat spike with record to near record-breaking temperatures is expected to occur on Thursday.

* Fire weather concerns are possible mid to late week.

* Adverse to hazardous marine/coastal conditions are expected to develop Tuesday afternoon through Thursday before improving late week through next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 958 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

An anomalously strong 585-590 dam Sonoran heat dome situated over the Baja Peninsula through the workweek will drive unseasonably warm temperatures across the Southwestern U.S., including us here in Deep South Texas. This weather feature will remain a fixture to the weather pattern as it propagates eastward over Texas next weekend supporting the continuation of warmer than normal temperatures into at least the early parts of next week. A heat spike, driven by the combination of the aforementioned heat ridge and compressional heating (downsloping) off the Sierra Madre, will result in record to near record-breaking temperatures on Thursday (February 26) across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.

Outside of the early season warmth/heat spike, rain-free conditions will prevail through the forecast period or through early next week. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for inland Deep South Texas, with the exception of Zapata and coastal/island counties, from 12 PM to 6 PM Tuesday. See the FIRE WEATHER section for more details. There will be the potential for further Fire Weather concerns developing on Wednesday as relative humidity (RH) values drop and gusty southerly winds prevail. A weak, moisture-starved cool front is expected to sweep through the region Thursday night into Friday.

High temperatures for the most part will range between the mid to upper 80s near the coast to the mid 90s west through the forecast period. On Tuesday, high temperatures are expected to top out in the upper 70s to mid 80s. During Thursday's heat spike, high temps are progged to climb into the 90s across much of the area with pockets of 100s, generally along and west of IH-69C. Overnight low temps will be in the 50s and 60s through the forecast period, outside of tonight (40s/50s).

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 958 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Through 06z Wednesday....VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 06z TAF cycle under mainly clear skies.

Easterly winds 5-15 kts with isolated gusts up to 15-20 kts this evening will weaken and become light and variable into tonight with speeds up to 5 kts. On Tuesday, winds will develop out of the southeast with speeds between 10-15 kts and gusts as high as 25 kts.

MARINE

Issued at 958 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Favorable marine conditions will prevail through tomorrow morning across the Gulf as the region remains under the influence of high pressure. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions return tomorrow afternoon along the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters due to a locally enhanced pressure gradient. Winds will remain elevated through at least early Thursday morning, likely reaching Small Craft Advisory criteria late Tuesday night into Wednesday. More favorable conditions return by the end of the week and into the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 958 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for all inland Deep South Texas, with the exception of Zapata and coastal/island counties, from 12 PM to 6 PM Tuesday. South-southeasterly 20 foot winds of around 15 mph, gusting to 20 to 25 mph (or greater), combine with minimum afternoon relative humidity values of 30 percent to 40 percent (lower further west) to produce elevated fire weather conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 53 77 64 82 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 48 79 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 52 82 61 92 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 48 82 56 94 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 60 72 66 76 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 53 77 61 82 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.