textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 610 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Key Messages:

- Hot and dry weather will dominate the forecast. Could see moderate to major heat risk through mid week.

- Small Craft Should Exercise Caution winds may slightly hinder boating along the Lower Texas Coast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1053 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

An upper level ridge over Northern Mexico will likely continue to support hot and generally rain free conditions next week. A dryline extending from the front range of the Sierra Madre up through North Texas will likely remain largely in place Sunday and Monday, and may support convective initiation over Northern Mexico again Sunday afternoon. While CAPE values, wind shear, and mid-level lapse rates will likely still be favorable for severe thunderstorms, a capping inversion and dry mid levels will likely inhibit convection, or make it difficult to sustain convection. As such, the probability of any thunderstorms developing and making it to western portions of the CWA is very low (<10%), however if any storm does reach the CWA it could be strong to severe.

Barring any severe convection, heat will likely be the primary hazard for the next few days, with heat indices likely climbing to 105 to 110 degrees each afternoon through Tuesday. Heat indices may briefly peak higher to 112 degrees along the Rio Grande Sunday afternoon, though the spatial extent likely wont require a Heat Advisory.

High temperatures will likely range from the mid 90s to low 100s through Wednesday falling slightly to the low to mid 90s by Friday. Rain chances may begin to increase Friday afternoon as a cold front approaches the region next weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

MVFR conditions will prevail through this morning, before VFR conditions return to HRL and MFE. BRO will likely remain MVFR with some brief periods of VFR. Tonight ceilings will over once again with MVFR conditions expected. Winds will remain light to moderate out the southeast.

MARINE

Issued at 1053 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Generally favorable marine conditions are forecast to continue through the week, though Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines may briefly be needed for the Laguna Madre each afternoon. On the Gulf waters, light to moderate southeasterly winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast to continue through Friday. Generally light to moderate southeasterly winds are forecast for the Laguna Madre, though wind speeds may reach 15-20 knots each afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 91 75 92 76 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 94 73 95 74 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 98 76 98 77 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 100 74 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 76 83 76 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 73 90 74 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.