textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1215 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

- One last unseasonably warm day expected today with near- record to record-breaking highs in the upper 80s.

- Expect below to near normal temperatures this weekend through most of the week next week across all of Deep South Texas due to the passage of a cold front.

- The cold front will bring increased rain chances late tonight through Saturday night. This may limit the potential for elevated fire weather concerns due to breezy winds and low humidity.

- Along the Lower Texas beaches and Gulf waters, expect adverse marine and beach conditions. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect Saturday morning through Sunday morning. A high risk of rip currents is likely through the weekend. Minor coastal flooding cannot be ruled out, especially along narrow beaches.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1215 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

One final afternoon of unseasonable warmth is expected across Deep South Texas, with highs in the low to mid 80s region wide. Notable changes are on the way within the next 16-24 hours, which will bring much cooler temperatures region wide this weekend and for most of next week (in comparison to the prolonged period of temperatures in the 80s). The latest suite of high resolution guidance indicates the cold front will be knocking on doorstep of Deep South Texas late tonight into early tomorrow morning, likely exiting the Rio Grande Valley near or just after sunrise. Along and ahead of the boundary, expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, with the best chances along the immediate coast and Gulf waters which coincides with the highest moisture content. Additionally, patchy fog may develop across portions of the region late tonight as winds become light and moisture content remains elevated ahead of the front.

While precipitation chances will be lower behind the front, light rain and partly cloudy skies will likely continue throughout the day as the warm, humid airmass overruns the cooler, drier airmass spilling southward. Persistent cold air advection through the day will maintain temperatures mostly in the upper 50s and low 60s across the Northern Ranchlands, and in the low to mid 60s across the Rio Grande Valley. It's not out of the possibility for portions of the Rio Grande Valley to realize temperatures in the low 60s. In addition to the cooler temperatures, expect breezy northerly winds with gusts up to 30 MPH are likely through Saturday evening. The combination of breezy winds and low humidity may result in elevated fire weather concerns across portions of the region, but this will be dependent on where any precipitation falls over the next 24 hours.

Along the Lower Texas beaches, the combination of building seas and increasing winds will result in adverse marine and beach conditions. A high risk of rip currents will likely continue through the weekend. Additionally, minor coastal flooding cannot be ruled out, especially near high tide and along narrow beaches. This may result in Coastal Flood Statement or Advisory over the weekend.

Otherwise, temperatures will be around 5-10 degrees below seasonal normals through at least Monday or Tuesday with highs mostly in the 60s, and closer to seasonal normals Wednesday through Friday with highs in the 70s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Partly to mostly cloudy skies and persistent southerly winds will continue through late tonight at all TAF sites. A cold front is expected to move across the region late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Expect brisk northerly winds and post-frontal stratus through the morning hours at all TAF sites in its wake. Additionally, isolated to scattered convection may develop ahead of the cold front, and light rain may liner through the end of the 18Z TAF period.

MARINE

Issued at 1215 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Adverse marine conditions return late tonight into early tomorrow morning in wake of the passage of a cold front. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for Saturday morning through Sunday morning as seas and northerly winds increase, and will likely need to be extended through at least Sunday as winds and seas remain elevated. Near gale force wind gusts cannot be ruled out early Saturday morning, and a brief Gale Warning cannot be ruled out. Medium to high (40-70%) rain chances over the Gulf waters and Laguna Madre return as showers and thunderstorms may develop ahead of and along the front, with low (20% or less) rain chances behind the front as light rain lingers. Otherwise, conditions should become more favorable by early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 63 66 51 62 / 50 40 10 10 HARLINGEN 59 65 47 62 / 40 30 10 10 MCALLEN 62 66 51 62 / 30 20 20 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 58 63 49 61 / 20 20 30 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 64 67 57 63 / 50 50 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 61 66 51 64 / 50 40 10 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ451-454- 455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.