textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1053 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

* Hot conditions continue through the week. Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk each day, mainly in the Valley becoming more widespread this weekend. Heat indices will climb to between 100 and 110 degrees each day.

* Daily thunderstorm chances will be low (generally under 20 percent) through Thursday, before increasing (to near 30 to 40 percent) Friday through Saturday. * There is generally a low risk of rip currents at area beaches likely increasing to moderate this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1053 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

The 500mb ridge is expected to pivot west towards Southern California into late this week, before working northeast towards the Northern Plains over the weekend and early next week. This will allow weaker pressure and increasing moisture to settle along the lower Texas coast for much of the forecast period, generally maintaining isolated sea breeze showers or thunderstorms each afternoon from east to west. The best chance of rain will occur Friday into Saturday, currently near 30 to 40 percent, with a shortwave disturbance along the coast increasing instability and a surge of above normal moisture Thursday through Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms late this week into next week will be efficient rain makers with rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches per hour. Have heavily tweaked NBM POP grids into Day 5 to be a bit more realistic with coverage into Saturday and lean into typical sea breeze timing.

Mid summer temperatures into the mid to upper 90s for most inland locations continue, with a cooler beach and warmer brush country. Expect a Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk through much of the forecast period, with brief relief where clouds, showers, or thunderstorms can develop.

Long period swell increases into the weekend and early next week offshore, potentially bringing a Moderate Risk of life-threatening rip currents along the lower Texas coast. Astronomical tides build this weekend as we near the New Moon, which may narrow already narrow beaches at high tide cycles this weekend into next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with breezy southeasterly winds diminishing this evening and returning mid to late Wednesday morning. An isolated shower or thunderstorm along the sea breeze may develop Wednesday afternoon and progress from east to west.

MARINE

Issued at 1053 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds continue across the coastal waters through most of the forecast period with strong high pressure northwest of the Gulf. Expect an afternoon chop each day on the bay, with Gulf seas of generally 2 to 3 feet, gradually building towards 3 to 4 feet late this weekend into next week with longer period swells.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 80 94 79 93 / 0 10 10 20 HARLINGEN 77 96 75 94 / 0 10 10 20 MCALLEN 79 99 78 97 / 0 20 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 99 76 98 / 10 10 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 81 87 / 0 10 10 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 92 78 91 / 0 10 10 20

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.