textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1022 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

- Temperatures remain 10-15 degrees above average (or warmer) tonight through the daytime on Saturday, drop to near to slightly below average Saturday night through Monday night before rising above average next week.

- A Fire Danger Statement (RFD) is likely on Saturday behind a cold front and a Fire Weather Watch is possible later this week, or over the weekend, ahead of a potential Red Flag Warning on Sunday as post-frontal northerly winds increase and relative humidity values crash.

- It is strongly recommended to refrain from outdoor burning and be vigilant of flames, particularly on Sunday. Fire weather concerns persist into next week.

- Dangerous coastal and marine conditions behind the front are likely Saturday night and into the beginning of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1022 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Much of the upcoming forecast for Deep South Texas continues to look dry with breezy to windy conditions and low relative humidity values, setting the stage for daily fire weather concerns. Most of the region remains within a D0-D3 Drought with conditions ranging from abnormally dry (in parts of the Lower RGV) to an extreme drought (across most of the Northern Ranchlands, Rio Grande Plains and Middle/Upper RGV). A D4 (exceptional) Drought stretches across portions of Jim Hogg and Brooks counties, which is the highest possible level of drought. As this dry airmass remains in place, it is highly urged to refrain from outdoor burning and remain vigilant of any outdoor flames due to the heightened susceptibility of any wildfire that starts to spread due to freeze-cured fuels/vegetation across the region.

Breezy south-southeasterly winds gradually diminish to light to gentle overnight tonight while a sharp temperature inversion persists, trapping elevated lower level moisture and smoke streaming northward from Mexico. As a result, widespread haze is expected across all the region tonight into Friday morning. Depending on how much moisture is in the air and how much winds diminish overnight, visibility could reduce to 2-3 miles, or less, particularly near the Laguna Madre and immediate coastline. Yet, the latest guidance is inconsistent with the degree of visibility reduction further inland, so we will continue to monitor for the potential issuance of a Special Weather Statement overnight tonight into Friday morning.

Meanwhile, a strong mid-level shortwave embedded within the subtropical jetstream moves into the Desert Southwest tonight, leading to a surface low pressure system and attendant cold front arriving over the the Southern Plains by Friday evening, with the cold front progressing southeastward across most of Texas throughout Friday night. Ahead of the front, expect another breezy day on Friday along/east of I-69 E across the Lower RGV, with south-southeasterly winds of around 10-15 mph, gusting to 20-25 mph, or higher in the afternoon. Additionally, haze is anticipated to become patchy during the day Friday before becoming widespread again overnight Friday as the inversion prevails before eroding on Saturday as the front arrives. Compared to yesterday evening, models have come into better agreement with the front passing through Deep South Texas Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon, though the NAM still holds onto an earlier arrival, with the front surging through by Saturday morning. Regardless, breezy conditions are anticipated behind the front and a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) is possible, especially further west where relative humidity values could fall to as low as 20-35%; the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Zapata, Jim Hogg, nearly all of Starr and western/northern portions of Brooks counties within a medium (40-69%) chance of fire weather on Saturday. Additionally, there is a low (15-20%) of a passing light shower across portions of the Middle/Upper RGV ahead of and along the front Saturday morning into the early afternoon hours.

Yet, the greatest concern for fire weather conditions is during the daytime on Sunday as a pressure gradient tightens Saturday night into Sunday from a surge of high pressure spilling southward from a 1045-1050 mb surface high centered over southern Canada, interacting with the departing mid-level trough. A Fire Weather Watch may be issued later this week or weekend ahead of a possible Red Flag Warning on Sunday as breezy to strong northerly winds (highest across coastal areas) coincide with daytime minimum relative humidity values, possibly ranging from 10-40% across inland portions of the CWA, lowest across the Rio Grande Plains.

Following, odds are increasing for a prolonged period of fire weather concerns with additional RFD statements and/or Red Flag Warnings possible next week as very low daytime relative humidity values persistently coincide with breezy conditions. Winds gradually becoming southerly/southeasterly Monday into Tuesday and windier by the middle of next week.

Temperatures continue to range 10-15 degrees (or warmer) above average, maximizing in the low/mid 90s on Friday and mid/upper 80s on Saturday while overnight lows fall to the 60s tonight and Friday night with 50s/60s anticipated Saturday night. Despite the breezy to strong northerly winds behind the front, low relative humidity values are likely to only allow temperatures to drop to near-to-slightly below average Sunday into Monday; maximizing in the 70s and minimizing in the 40s/50s. A warming trend is anticipated into the middle of next week, with above average temperatures returning by Tuesday and 90s by Wednesday.

Outside of the fire weather conditions, strong northerly winds behind the front are expected to result in dangerous coastal conditions with High Risk of Rip Currents and High Surf Advisory likely Sunday into the beginning of next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1022 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Ceilings have varied, and are likely to continue to vary over the next several hours, between IFR and MVFR at all TAF sites as periods of breezy south-southeasterly winds persist. Meanwhile, widespread haze is currently resulting in 5-6 SM visibility. Late tonight and into the early morning hours, winds should generally lighten, allowing IFR ceilings to develop at all sites while further lowering vis. to 3-4 SM (lowest at KHRL and KBRO). Ceilings are anticipated to gradually improve to VFR by Friday afternoon as winds increase slightly as mixing heights rise. Patchy haze is likely to persist throughout Friday TAF cycle, becoming widespread again Friday evening as ceilings begin to lower again.

MARINE

Issued at 1022 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

A Marine Weather Statement remains in effect for the Laguna Madre and Nearshore (0-20 nm) Gulf Waters along the Lower Texas tonight into Friday morning as widespread haze continues to reduce visibilityto 1-3 nm, possibly briefly lowering to less than 1 nm in some locations. Gentle to moderate south-southeasterly winds and moderate (3-4 feet) seas continue tonight through Friday night along with with patchy haze and/or fog into Friday afternoon and evening. There is a low (15%) chance of a shower developing ahead of a front arriving Saturday morning, passing through all Lower Texas coastal waters by possibly late Saturday afternoon, bringing moderate northeasterly winds and moderate (4-5 seas) with Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) possibly into Saturday evening.

A Gale Watch is possible late this week or over the weekend for a potential Gale Warning Saturday night as a pressure gradient tightens significantly, resulting in strong to near gale northerly winds, gale-force gusts and rough to very rough seas late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Winds and seas gradually improve later Sunday and into the beginning of next week, with winds shift back to southeasterly by Tuesday. Additional SCEC or Small Craft Advisory headlines are possible next week as breezy to windy conditions prevail.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 68 88 67 88 / 0 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 65 91 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 69 95 68 90 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 65 95 64 90 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 68 78 68 77 / 0 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 66 86 64 83 / 0 0 0 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.