textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1045 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

- Unseasonably warm on Tuesday ahead of the cool front with daytime high temperatures ranging between the upper 80s to mid 90s.

- First cool front arrives Tuesday evening; low-medium (20-40%) rain chances Tuesday afternoon-Tuesday night; best chances along and east of IH-69E/US 77.

- Second cool front approaches before potentially washing out later this week into next weekend bringing additional chances (30-70%) for rain Thursday evening through next Sunday.

- Temperatures trend from seasonable to unseasonably cool Friday through next Monday (i.e. high temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1045 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

A pair of cool fronts will be the primary drivers of our weather pattern through next weekend. The first of two cool fronts is set to arrive Tuesday afternoon/evening from north to south. Before its arrival, temperatures will have the opportunity to climb into the low to mid 90s most places. The cool front will be rather moisture starved. However, there could be enough sfc convergence and low level moisture ahead of the front to ignite a few showers Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Given the situation, we've still maintained low-medium (20-60%) chances/PoPs favoring areas near the coast and over the Northern Ranchlands. Categorical chances exists over the Gulf Waters.

Behind the cool front, cooler and drier air will advect into the region. On Wednesday, temperature anomalies will return to near seasonable levels with highs in the low to mid 80s. Rain-free weather conditions return on Wednesday behind the aforementioned cool front. Temperatures briefly moderate Thursday with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Our next chance for showers and thunderstorms arrive Thursday night and persist through Sunday. This is in response to another cool front, that may wash out before making it into Deep South Texas, approaches the region. Ahead of the cool front, forecast models continue to indicate a weak shortwave trough developing nearby. If realized, shower and thunderstorm chances will increase over the region Thursday night through Sunday. Currently, we have low-medium (30-70%) PoPs/chances for showers and thunderstorms developing with the best chances (highest probabilities) generally being located closer the Lower Texas Coast, though there will be an areawide threat.

Seasonable to unseasonably cool temperatures will develop Thursday night through early next week. Finally, with these cool fronts, we will have to continue to keep close watch on the potential for coastal/marine hazards through early next week (see MARINE SECTION for more details).

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Through 06z Wednesday....By and large, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 06z TAF cycle. There could be a few MVFR clouds around at times during the overnight period. A few showers are possible Tuesday evening/night in response to a cool front that will sweep through the region. Have Prob30 groups to acknowledge the potential for showers Tuesday evening/night.

Southeasterly winds will remain elevated through tonight ahead of an approaching cold front with speeds between 8-15 knots. By Tuesday evening, a cold front is expected to sweep through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, which will result in winds shifting out of the north-northeast.

MARINE

Issued at 1045 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Low to moderate winds and seas Tuesday will give way to Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions Tuesday night into Wednesday in response to the first cool front. Low to moderate winds and seas return Wednesday night through Friday night. SCEC conditions return Saturday with Small Craft Advisory conditions developing Saturday night into Sunday in response to the second cool front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 77 92 72 83 / 0 10 60 10 HARLINGEN 74 93 69 83 / 0 30 40 10 MCALLEN 77 94 71 87 / 0 10 20 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 73 90 66 86 / 0 10 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 84 74 79 / 0 10 70 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 74 90 70 81 / 0 20 60 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.