textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1111 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
- Above-normal temperatures are expected through the middle of next week with breezy south-southeasterly winds. A weak cold front is possible late next week.
- Fire danger will likely increase next week as winds pick up and fuels continue to dry with rain-free conditions.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1111 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
High pressure is expected to continue over Deep South Texas this weekend into next week as an upper level trough moves east of the CONUS. This will result in precipitation-free and unseasonably warm weather for our region through at least the middle of next week, until another upper-level shortwave ejects over the Central/Southern plains, bringing a possible weak cold front and a small chance of precipitation (30% and less) east of US 77/I-69E on Thursday. Highs are expected to be in the upper 80s/lower 90s through Thursday, and then drop back down into the mid-80s by the weekend after the frontal passage. Lows will start out this weekend in the low-to-mid 60s, steadily increasing to the upper 60s/lower 70s by the middle of next week as a more humid airmass is advected into the area by continual south-southeasterly winds. Wind speeds will gradually increase into the middle of next week as a pressure gradient tightens as the approaching upper-level shortwave moves closer to the region. As the winds pick up and fuels continue to dry out, fire danger is expected to increase.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1111 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
VFR conditions expected at all airports with light to moderate southeasterly winds and few to scattered clouds
MARINE
Issued at 1111 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025
SCEC conditions are possible each afternoon through the middle of next week, particularly along portions of the Laguna Madre Bay and the Northern Gulf Waters. By Wednesday Night, the pressure gradient is expected to tighten ahead of an approaching upper level trough, and Small Craft Conditions may be possible.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 67 85 69 88 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 62 87 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 66 90 68 92 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 62 91 64 93 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 80 73 82 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 66 84 67 86 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None. GM...None.
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