textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 527 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

- Cloudy but mostly dry skies prevail Thursday before the sun returns Friday.

- Moderate (40 to 60%) rain chances return to Deep South Texas Saturday.

- A cold front Monday will bring low rain chances (20 to 30%) to areas near the coast along with a temperature decrease.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1033 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Measurable rain chances let up Thursday, but cloud cover will stay in place and keep highs in the 70s for another day. Late Thursday night, skies begin to clear as moisture advects out of the region. Radiational cooling will drop Friday morning lows into the mid to upper 50s (60s along the coast). Dry conditions continue through Friday night.

Saturday, a shortwave interacting with moist air advected from the Gulf (PWATs 1.5-1.7", 75-90th percentile for mid-Nov) will return moderate rain chances (40-60%). Most of the CWA should stay dry Sunday onward, bar a low chance (20-30%) of showers and thunderstorms near the coast through Monday. Temperatures climb through the weekend into the mid 80s ahead of a cold front early next week. The front should mostly be dry outside of the aforementioned showers near the coast Monday. This will return cooler high temperatures in the 70s Tuesday.

At lower Texas beaches, water levels near high tide may lead to narrow beaches.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 527 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours, with generally light winds and gradually clearing skies.

MARINE

Issued at 1033 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Moderate northerly winds Thursday could lead to Small Craft Caution on the offshore Gulf waters. Otherwise, Friday should be a copacetic day with gentle onshore winds and slight seas. Conditions begin to degrade Saturday with a tightening pressure gradient, building seas to moderate and a fresh southeasterly breeze into early next week. Showers and thunderstorms beginning Saturday will continue into early next week, diminishing behind a cold front passing Monday. Small Craft Caution conditions are likely this weekend through Tuesday, with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible - most likely late Saturday, and again near fropa.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 77 63 80 66 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 76 59 78 62 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 80 59 81 63 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 79 56 80 60 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 71 76 72 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 63 78 66 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.