textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 539 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

* Unseasonably warm, dry, and at times windy conditions will prevail through early next week.

* There is a low chance (20-30%) for rain over the Gulf Waters Wednesday and then again Friday night into Saturday.

* Increased fire weather concerns through early next week; Saturday will be the day at greatest risk for fire weather concerns.

* Breezy to windy conditions will result in adverse marine conditions developing on Tuesday and then again Friday night through Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1054 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Unseasonably warm, dry, and at times windy conditions will be the theme through the forecast period or through early next week. Due to the combination of antecedently dry soils, freeze cured fuels, windy conditions, and lowering relative humidity (RH) values, fire weather concerns will also be on the increase over the weekend, specifically on Saturday, and possibly again during the early parts of next week (see FIRE WEATHER SECTION for more details).

Global forecast models and ensembles continue to depict a zonal (westerly) to semi-zonal (southwesterly) flow regime in place along with a 582-588 mb ridging being the dominant weather fixture over the southern Plains through early next week. There will be a couple of weak upper level troughs/perturbations stemming from a parent trough over/nearby the Beaufort Sea that will track over the southern Plains this week into next weekend. The first one will travel from northern Mexico through the state of Texas through Wednesday (in decaying fashion). A second, stronger impulse is progged to track over the region Friday through Saturday.

Given that the main storm track, better jet stream dynamics, and instability will be just to our north-northwest (i.e. over the Southern Rockies into central/northern Texas), impulses associated with the aforementioned weak trough in the form of showers and thunderstorms will pass to our north/northwest effectively keeping Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley rain- free through the forecast period. That said, there is a low chance (20-30%) for showers over the Gulf Waters On Wednesday and then again Friday night into Saturday.

As mentioned earlier, there will be periods of breezy to windy conditions. The first opportunity will Tuesday. An area of low pressure just to our west over the Sierra Madre Oriental and high pressure to our east over the Gulf Waters will enhance a sfc pressure gradient over the region ultimately resulting in windy conditions developing on Tuesday. The combination of an enhanced sfc pressure gradient, increasing mixing heights w/ low level jet (LLJ) winds between 20-30 kts or so, and locally enhanced geographical features will result in southerly winds 20-30 mph developing with gusts up to 40 mph on Tuesday.

Friday and Saturday will feature additional opportunities for windy conditions. Friday into Saturday, another low pressure system over the Sierra Madre along with a strengthening LLJ, ahead of an approaching cold front and mid-upper level trough, will help to enhance the pressure gradient over the region resulting in another breezy to windy period. On Friday and Saturday, southerly winds 15-30 mph are expected to develop with gusts as high as 40 mph. There's still some uncertainty with the precise timing of the cold fropa on Saturday. A wind shift is possible on Saturday out of the northwest following the potential cold fropa. Breezy conditions are also possible on Monday and/or Tuesday of next week. The breezy to windy conditions will result in adverse marine conditions developing on Tuesday and then again Friday night through Sunday (see MARINE SECTION for more details).

An emerging negative Pacific North American (-PNA)/positive Arctic Oscillation (+AO) pattern with troughing (cooler/stormier) over the western U.S. vs. ridging over the central U.S. is expected to take shape through early next week. A 582-588 dam ridge overhead coupled with ample warm air advection (WAA) amid breezy southerly winds will support unseasonably warm temperatures (late March to late April- like) through the forecast period. High temperatures will mainly be in the 80s across Deep South Texas with some lower 90s along and west of IH-69C through the period. Low temperatures will mainly be in the 50s and 60s across the region through the forecast period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 539 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Southeast winds between 8 to 12 knots with mostly clear skies prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Brief MVFR ceilings will be possible at MFE around sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through much of the period. Southeast winds will increase and become breezy mid to late morning. Some gusts up to 30 knots will be possible this afternoon. Winds are expected to decrease later this evening into tonight. There is a low to medium (30-50 percent) chance of MVFR ceilings late tonight at MFE.

MARINE

Issued at 1054 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Adverse (SCEC) marine conditions are expected on Tuesday and then again Friday night through Sunday in response to breezy to windy conditions. Outside of that, marine conditions will generally be favorable with low to moderate winds and seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1054 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Fire weather concerns are expected to be on the increase this week through early next week given the combination of persistent dryness, lower relative humidity (RH) levels, at times breezy to windy conditions, and freeze cured grasses/brush.

The latest report from the U.S. Drought Monitor indicated long term dryness over much of Deep South Texas with D3 (Extreme Drought) over 45% of Deep South Texas including most of the Northern Ranchlands into the Upper Rio Grande Valley, D2 (Severe Drought) conditions over 19% of Deep South Texas including most of the remainder of the northern Ranchlands and upper RGV, D1 (Moderate Drought) over 23% of the region including most of the coast, mid to lower RGV, and northwestern Zapata County, and D0 (Abnormally Dry) conditions over 9% of the region including portions of the mid to lower RGV.

Saturday, following the potential passage of a cold front, looks to be the day at greatest risk for fire dangers. With RH values expected to fall to between 15-40% across much of Deep South Texas on Saturday coupled with breezy 20ft winds 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph ahead and behind the front, a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) may be needed on Saturday for an Elevated Fire Weather Risk.

Will need to monitor the threat for fire weather through early next week with additional chances for lower RH values on top of breezy conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 81 64 82 62 / 0 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 84 60 83 59 / 0 0 10 0 MCALLEN 87 64 87 64 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 87 62 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 65 74 64 / 0 0 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 62 79 59 / 0 0 10 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.