textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 628 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Key Messages:

* Gusty northerly winds to 35-40 mph possible today. * Life-threatening beach, surf, and marine conditions are expected along the lower TX coast into Saturday night.

* Much cooler temperatures prevail into Monday morning with a quick warmup Tuesday into Wednesday, elevating heat risk.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1048 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

A strong cold front has arrived, bringing a little light rain, breezy to gusty northerly winds, and much cooler temperatures to Deep South Texas. Passing instability tonight combined with any leftover moisture and coastal low pressure may bring back shower development late this evening through Saturday morning, with any thunderstorm activity expected to be very isolated. NBM may be mostly overdoing POPs overnight.

Most locations will experience a 30 degree drop from earlier Friday afternoon to Saturday morning, only gaining 5-10 degrees Saturday afternoon. Have continued to lean towards the cooler guidance with temperatures, with below normal temperatures persisting into Monday morning. Ranchland lows into the low to mid 50s are likely both Saturday and Sunday mornings. Winds remain gusty through the day on Saturday, gusting at times to 35 mph.

Conditions improve Sunday into next week, with drier conditions and warming temperatures, especially by Tuesday and Wednesday, with Moderate (level 2 of 4) to Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk expected. The next surface low and frontal system gradually works south mid to late next week, bringing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Beach conditions are expected to remain hazardous this weekend, with life-threatening rip currents, elevated to high surf, and minor coastal flooding near high tide cycles narrowing beaches or making narrow beaches impassable. A Rip Current Statement and High Surf Advisory are in effect. At this time, will go ahead and issue a Coastal Flood Statement with guidance nearing minor coastal flooding around daybreak. A Coastal Flood Advisory may need to be issued if observations bump up much above guidance overnight.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

MVFR ceilings are forecast to continue this morning, gradually lifting to VFR levels before breaking this afternoon. Gusty northerly winds are forecast to continue through the afternoon, then becoming light to calm this evening. A low chance for showers or thunderstorms will continue through the morning. However, probabilities of any convection impacting a TAF site remain too low for inclusion in the TAFs.

MARINE

Issued at 1048 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Strong high pressure continues to build along the lower Texas coast through the weekend, following the passing cold front. Showers and very isolated thunderstorms are possible into Saturday afternoon. Hazardous marine conditions are expected through Saturday evening with gusty winds, occasionally approaching gale force, and elevated seas. The pressure gradient briefly weakens Sunday and winds turn southeasterly into Sunday evening, allowing conditions to improve into Monday. Gusty southeasterly winds return Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of the next frontal system, returning potentially hazardous conditions to the lower Texas coastal waters, along with the next chance of showers and thunderstorms. There is a Small Craft Advisory currently in effect into Saturday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 74 65 81 67 / 50 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 74 60 83 64 / 40 0 0 0 MCALLEN 76 63 84 66 / 30 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 58 83 64 / 10 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 70 77 72 / 50 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 66 81 68 / 40 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

High Surf Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175.