textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1209 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

- A cold front Friday will bring strong winds, cooler temperatures, and multiple marine, beach, and wind hazards Friday into Saturday.

- Peak wind gusts Friday night approach 50 mph or higher. Any wildfire that can develop would quickly become dangerous in these conditions, with erratic growth and spread.

- Brief low to medium rain chances are expected Friday along the front, with greatest chances (30-50%) along the immediate coast and dry weather returning into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

A cold front arrives Friday with strong northerly winds, especially by late Friday evening. Expect a brief chance of rain with the frontal passage, then mostly dry conditions into early next week. RH levels behind the front drop to 25-45 percent across the ranchlands and along and west of US-281/I-69C in the RGV, with little to no recovery Friday night. The combination of these RH values with 20 foot winds of 15-20 mph and surface gusts to 45-55 mph will present an elevated threat of wildfire growth and erratic spread. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued and ultimately a Fire Danger Statement or Red Flag Warning will be needed.

As for the winds, there remains a low (10 percent) chance of wind gusts of 55 mph or more late Friday evening into Saturday morning. Most likely winds of 20-30 mph with gusts 35-45 mph are expected Friday afternoon into Saturday afternoon. A Wind Advisory has been issued and a High Wind Warning may be needed for those peak gusts Friday night, if confidence increases. Along the coast, strong winds and the reinforcing push behind the front Friday evening will drive tidal runup and potential beach erosion at high tides through the weekend, dangerous surf, and life- threatening rip currents. A High Surf Advisory, Coastal Flood Advisory, and Rip Current Statement are all in effect. A Coastal Flood Warning may be needed.

As for temperatures, expect a comfortable drop into the 50s each morning with highs in the 70s over the weekend gradually warming into next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with a strong front arriving Friday, with gusty winds following Friday afternoon and especially beyond this TAF period into Friday night. There may be a shower or thunderstorm with the frontal passage, with confidence too low in any direct impacts to aerodromes at this time.

MARINE

Issued at 1209 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Southeasterly winds continue into early Friday before a strong cold front arrives with strong northerly winds through Saturday morning. The Gale Watch was replaced with a Gale Warning and Small Craft Advisories may be needed after the gale force winds diminish Saturday into Sunday, with conditions improving into early next week. There remains a chance of showers and thunderstorms with the frontal passage and a return of rain chances on Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 74 86 62 72 / 0 30 10 0 HARLINGEN 71 84 59 73 / 0 30 0 0 MCALLEN 74 85 60 74 / 0 20 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 72 80 57 75 / 0 30 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 82 68 71 / 0 50 20 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 83 62 72 / 0 40 10 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning for TXZ248>255-353.

Wind Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ250- 251-253>255-353.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ351- 354-355-451-454-455.

High Rip Current Risk from Friday morning through Sunday morning for TXZ451-454-455.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ451-454-455.

High Surf Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Gale Warning from 10 AM Friday to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ130- 132-135-150-155-170-175.