textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1222 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Key Messages

* Weekend shot of rainfall due to a cold front.

* Favorable marine conditions turning more adverse next week.

* Strengthening winds next week may result in rip current and wildfire concerns.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1010 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

A cold front is currently positioned along a Houston to Laredo line. The passage of this front will produce scattered showers with near normal high temperatures for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Saturday. Temperatures will then begin to warm on Sunday as isolated to scattered convection remains a possibility. However, for the remainder of the forecast period, well above normal temperatures with generally dry weather will prevail with 500 mb high pressure gradually nosing in from the west.

Long range model guidance suggests that winds may be strong enough next Friday to warrant a Wind Advisory for the eastern portion of the BRO CWFA. In fact, a breezy to windy onshore flow from Sunday through Friday may pose a risk for enhanced wildfire growth and spread, the result of which may be the need for Rangeland Fire Danger Statements during some or all of these days.

Of course, with intensifying winds and building seas along the Lower Texas Coast, a Moderate to High Risk of rip currents may result at the local beaches.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF cycle at all TAF sites. A weak cold front should move through the area during the early part of the TAF cycle resulting in a wind shift towards the north after the front passes. However the winds are expected to be light through the period. There is a low chance for rain during the period, however confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF package.

MARINE

Issued at 1010 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Despite the passage of a weak cold front during the pre-dawn hours of Saturday, favorable marine conditions are forecast along the Lower Texas Coast during the weekend. An intensifying pressure gradient over the western Gulf of America will produce stronger winds and higher seas for the new work week, resulting in Small Craft Should Exercise Caution at a minimum and possible Small Craft Advisory towards the middle and end of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 83 65 84 67 / 40 20 30 0 HARLINGEN 82 61 85 63 / 40 10 30 0 MCALLEN 83 65 88 68 / 40 20 30 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 81 63 89 65 / 40 20 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 69 77 70 / 30 20 30 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 64 83 66 / 30 20 30 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.