textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1048 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

- Heat Advisories may be needed each afternoon. Heat Indices between 105-110F, potentially higher, are expected with a Moderate to Major risk of heat related illness.

- Low (15 percent or less) chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze each afternoon Thursday through Sunday, otherwise, dry weather is expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1048 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Record heat combined with the sea breeze, roaming outflow boundaries, and a stalling frontal boundary to kick up multiple strong to severe slow-moving thunderstorms this afternoon, with heavy rainfall and a few strong downbursts. With the excitement over, we now return to the previously messaged heat threat, with a Moderate (level 2 of 4) to Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk expected every day of the forecast and little to no relief each night.

The persistent ridge of high pressure across the Desert SW strengthens slightly into Tuesday, before allowing weaker pressure to build along the coast. This will maintain above normal temperatures across Deep South Texas through the forecast period but also allow humidity to increase mid to late week. There remains a low (less than 10 to 20 percent) chance of showers or thunderstorms along the sea breeze each afternoon Thursday through Sunday.

Heat Advisories may be needed each afternoon, with the highest Heat Indices occurring behind the sea breeze as it increases humidity from east to west.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 629 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail through the TAF period with strong to severe thunderstorms currently working through MFE, but expected to move south within the hour. Southeasterly winds diminish quick this evening and return Monday afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1048 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds continue generally favorable marine conditions along the lower Texas coast with seas of 3 feet or less.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 79 97 81 97 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 76 101 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 79 103 81 103 / 20 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 103 79 103 / 50 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 89 81 89 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 96 79 96 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.