textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 634 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

- Hazardous beach and marine conditions continue today but will improve this evening into tomorrow. Coastal flooding and life- threatening rip currents are likely along the lower Texas beaches.

- Mainly dry conditions expected through midweek, with rain chances returning late week in association with a cold front.

- Mostly minor risks of heat-related illnesses (level 1/4) become moderate to major (level 2 to 3/4) by Monday as deep low-level moisture returns.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Some coastal hazards will still continue through this evening into tomorrow morning. There remains a high risk of rip currents through this afternoon with conditions improving by this evening. Coastal flooding will continue to be an issue around high tide and a Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for area beaches until Monday morning.

Otherwise, we will remain mostly dry through the first part of the week with only an isolated chance of a passing sea breeze shower or thunderstorm. As we head into late week, an approaching cold front will increase rain chances on Thursday and Friday. Models suggest the aforementioned cold front may pass through Deep South Texas Friday, with rain chances remaining in the forecast into the weekend due to a coastal trough setting up. Will continue to monitor for timing chances of the potential frontal passage, as there is likely to be some adjustments.

Temperatures will remain near to just above normal through the week with highs in the low to mid 90s. A cold front passage on Friday will allow temps to fall below normal for the weekend with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Heat indices remain in the 90s each afternoon through the first part of the period but as moisture increases heat indices will climb to 100-110 degrees Monday through Thursday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 634 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail with an occasional gust to 20 kts through sunset possible. Light southeasterly winds prevail overnight, with a low chance (20%) of isolated streamer showers near the coast (BRO and HRL). Confidence is not high enough in timing or direct impact to either site for TAF mention. Southeasterly winds become gusty again late Monday morning to 25 kts.

MARINE

Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Generally favorable conditions will prevail through much of the week with a few passing showers or thunderstorms possible. Could see some caution conditions on the bay and Gulf waters midweek as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold front. The cold front will move through late week will bring increasing rain chances and potential for adverse marine conditons.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 79 94 81 94 / 10 10 0 0 HARLINGEN 76 96 77 97 / 10 10 0 0 MCALLEN 79 98 80 99 / 10 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 76 98 78 99 / 10 10 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 88 83 89 / 20 20 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 92 79 93 / 20 20 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for TXZ451-454-455.

High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ451-454- 455.

GM...None.