textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 529 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

- Record high temperatures could occur Friday and Saturday as high temperatures remain above normal in the upper 80s to low 90s.

- A cold front is expected Saturday night, which should cool temperatures to the lower 80s for Sunday before temperatures warm again to the mid-80s on Monday.

- Patchy fog development is possible in the late overnight/early morning hours over the next several nights.

- Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are possible on the Gulf during the overnight hours and Friday morning due to elevated offshore winds. In addition, there is a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents at area beaches.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1012 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

While generally tranquil conditions are expected for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley for the duration of the forecast period. Temperatures will continue to be above normal and even close to record highs. There are several factors for the higher than normal temperatures. The first of which is the mid-level ridging over the area that will act to suppress chances for rain and bring drier air from aloft to the region. Then at the surface southeasterly to southerly winds will continue to bring in more warm, moist air to the area. This type of pattern is more typical for the summer time, but it is the reason that we are seeing above normal high temperatures in the upper 80s and could even see some low 90s for the next couple of days.

However, there is a general consensus with the models that a cold front will move through the region sometime late Saturday into Sunday that will bring some relief from the heat. As high temperatures behind the front will be in the lower 80s and upper 70s. There is no precipitation expected with this front, the winds will shift towards the north for a short duration of time. Winds are expected to shift more back to the east again by late Sunday and then towards the southeast by Monday. While the dry air behind the front will drop the relative humidity values into the teens and lower 20s for most of the region, with very weak winds behind the front, the concerns for Fire Weather at this time are limited.

Moving into next week, the rest of the forecast is very tranquil once again, as temperatures warm up again with the southeasterly flow to the upper 80s. While southwesterly flow aloft is expected, rain chances will continue to be very limited for the forecast period. However, this does not rule out a possible rogue shower occurring especially along the coast.

Finally, there is the possibility of fog late each night to around sunrise each morning. While not expecting dense fog at this time, it is possible that patchy fog could impact isolated locations during the previously mentioned times. Motorists will need to heed caution in case of an locally dense patchy fog should it develop. As for along the coast, there is an expected increase in the rip current risk to moderate at this time due to increases winds along the coast and higher swell.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 529 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Light south winds and mostly clear skies prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. South-southwest winds are expected to develop later this morning with some gusts around 20 knots will be possible in the afternoon, especially at HRL and BRO. MVFR conditions with patchy fog and low stratus are expected to develop late tonight.

MARINE

Issued at 1012 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

While the forecast is generally favorable for the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters. A cold front is expected to move through the Lower Texas Coast late Saturday into Sunday. This could result in stronger winds due to the increase pressure gradient ahead of the front that could bring some Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions to the Gulf waters. These conditions could persist through the rest of the weekend, but should taper off by Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 85 64 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 87 60 88 54 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 88 62 90 56 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 89 55 89 52 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 67 78 65 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 84 62 83 59 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.