textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1242 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Key Messages:

* Moderate to high (40-60%) chances of scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two this evening through Friday, decreasing to moderate (40-50%) for Saturday, and low (20-30%) Sunday.

* Drier conditions and gradual warming is expected early next week ahead of another approaching system. Conditions could become windier early next week as the pressure gradient tightens.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1101 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Rain chances continue to remain elevated this weekend as a series of upper-level shortwaves traverse Texas. Deep layer moisture with PWAT values between 1.5 and 1.7 inches and synoptic forcing will likely continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday and into the day Saturday, with more isolated convection forecast Sunday. Limited instability, generally around 500 J/kg or less will likely hinder the development of any strong or severe thunderstorms. However, given the ample moisture, heavy rainfall could be possible with these showers and thunderstorms. Even with the recent rainfall, soil conditions are still fairly dry, so rainfall associated with these storms would likely be beneficial, though some minor ponding of water in poor drainage areas is possible.

Drier conditions are forecast to return Monday, with the remainder of the forecast remaining rain free. A gradual warming trend will continue through the forecast, with high temperatures forecast to range in the 80s through Saturday before climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings and light east winds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Brownsville radar currently indicates some light to moderate SHRA, mainly north and east of the aerodromes. A larger area of SHRA's and TSRA located farther west, near APY. The latest HRRR shows this convection may reach the terminals between 7-11Z. Therefore, will mention a TEMPO at all RGV airfields during this time. A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions will be likely today as additional convection is expected later this morning into the early afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1101 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Rain chances remain elevated through the weekend, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through Sunday. Otherwise, generally favorable marine conditions are forecast through Saturday with light to moderate southeasterly winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds and seas are forecast to increase Sunday, likely requiring Small Craft Should Exercise Caution statements through mid-week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 83 71 84 72 / 50 20 40 10 HARLINGEN 84 67 86 69 / 60 10 40 10 MCALLEN 87 72 88 74 / 60 20 50 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 86 70 88 72 / 50 20 50 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 72 78 73 / 50 10 40 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 82 70 83 71 / 50 10 40 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.