textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 615 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- Daytime highs in the upper 90s/lower 100s and overnight lows in the upper 70s/lower 80s as well as afternoon heat indices of around 100-110 F continue.

- Breezy onshore winds (gusts to 25-30+ mph) return later in the week, building moisture content and increasing heat risks from minor and moderate (levels 1 and 2 of 4) to mainly moderate by Thursday.

- Chances of rain along the seabreeze could increase to a low (15-30%) chance each afternoon beginning Friday. - A low risk of rip currents prevails through Sunday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1014 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Most of the upcoming 7 day forecast should remain nearly the same as the past several days across deep south Texas. High temperatures are generally anticipated to rise into mostly the mid 80s along the coast and upper 90s inland though peaking in the lower 100s in portions of the Middle and Upper RGV. Afternoon maximum heat indices are likely to continue ranging around 100-110 F. Overnight lows fall to the upper 70s as well as lower 80s across coastal and island Cameron County.

Weak high pressure aloft wanes a bit through the beginning of this upcoming week. Yet, the lack of any significant disturbances should keep dry conditions though an isolated shower or two is possible each afternoon. Meanwhile, weakening onshore southeasterly flow (gusting to 15-25 mph) will likely reduce heat risks from mainly moderate on Sunday to minor and moderate across the Northern Ranchlands and RGV, respectively, Monday through Wednesday.

By the middle or later part of the week, a tightening pressure gradient may result in gusts of 25-30+ mph in the afternoon, pumping above average moisture content inland from a potential disturbance over the Bay of Campeche, leading to mainly moderate heat risks by Thursday. This could also result in a low (15-30%) chance of rain from diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms developing along the afternoon seabreeze boundary, beginning Friday and continuing over the weekend. As a side note, the Climate Prediction Center indicates a medium chance of above normal rainfall in their 6-10 Day Outlook as well a low to medium chance in the 8-14 Day Outlook (into the middle of July).

A low risk of rip currents continues through Sunday afternoon.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

VFR will continue at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours, with breezy daytime winds, lighter winds at night, and clear to partly cloudy skies.

MARINE

Issued at 1014 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Gentle to moderate, fresh at times, southeasterly winds continue through Tuesday night before increasing back to moderate to fresh, with possible periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions by Wednesday as a pressure gradient tightens. Slight to moderate (1-3 ft) seas become moderate (2-4 ft) by the middle of the week as well. Mainly dry conditions persist, potentially increasing to a low (15-30%) chance over this upcoming week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 95 80 95 79 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 97 76 97 76 / 0 0 10 0 MCALLEN 101 79 101 79 / 0 0 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 101 78 101 77 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 81 88 81 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 93 78 92 78 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.