textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 515 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

* Breezy to at times windy conditions are expected to continue to the early afternoon hours on Tuesday before waning.

* Mainly rain-free and tranquil weather conditions will prevail through early next week.

* A cold front late Tuesday/early Wednesday will bring temperatures to normal to slightly cooler than normal levels Wednesday through Thursday night (a freeze is not anticipated).

* Temperatures begin to rebound on Friday with warmer than normal temperatures developing over the weekend through early next week.

* Adverse to hazardous coastal/marine conditions will persist through at least Tuesday (see MARINE SECTION for more details).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 932 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Mainly dry and tranquil weather conditions with mainly warmer than normal temperatures are progged to prevail through the forecast period or through early next week.

As of this update, some streamer showers mainly confined from South Padre Island to the Gulf Waters were seen on radar. Through this the remainder of this evening and into tonight, expect for these streamer showers to continue before waning in coverage tonight. On the very western edge of these streamer showers, isolated sprinkles or showers are possible through this evening into tonight for Brownsville. Outside of any isolated sprinkles or showers, expect for rain-free conditions to prevail through tonight. It will also continue to be breezy at times due to an enhanced sfc pressure gradient nearby. Overnight low temps will be warmer than normal with values in the 50s most places (lower 60s along the Rio Grande Valley).

Additional warm air advection (WAA) on breezy southerly winds mid morning into the early afternoon will support an even warmer day on Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A developing highly amplified 500 mb pattern, featuring an anomalously strong 585 dam ridge over the western U.S. and downstream troughing over the eastern U.S., early to mid week will help to drive a southward advancing cold front through the state of Texas on Tuesday. This cold front is expected to sweep through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Isolated sprinkles or a shower is possible near/along the immediate coast with showers mainly confined over the Gulf Waters on Wednesday as this front will be moisture starved. A major airmass change is not anticipated given the lack of a cross-polar flow and instead a track over shallower cold regions. High temperatures will likely be achieved early in the day on Wednesday and near seasonable levels as temps will fall during the day following the cold fropa. Thursday will be the only day during the forecast period of cooler than normal temperatures (with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s) as the cooler airmass/cold air advection (CAA) regime will fully be in place over the region.

A warming trend quickly takes place Friday into the weekend as winds return out of the south. Saturday through early next week, high temperatures will be in the upper 70s near the coast to the lower to mid 80s most places. Overnight low temperatures will mainly be in the 50s most places through the forecast period, though there will be some lower 60s over the weekend along the RGV and 30s/40s over much of the region following the cold fropa Wednesday and Thursday nights.

A High Risk for Rip Currents remains in place at the beaches along the Lower Texas Coast through Tuesday in response to the breezy to windy conditions of late.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 515 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the duration of the TAF cycle at all TAF sites. Southerly winds are expected to persist for the majority of the TAF cycle, while some gusty winds could occur late this morning and persisting through the evening hours. A cold front is expected to move through the region during the overnight hours and into the early morning hours tomorrow. Winds will shift towards the north after the front pushes through.

MARINE

Issued at 932 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Adverse to hazardous marine conditions (Small Craft Advisory to Small Craft Exercise Caution) are expected to prevail through Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the Gulf Waters to Tuesday evening given the breezy to windy conditions of late helping to drive up wave heights. Favorable marine conditions with low to moderate winds and seas are expected to develop Thursday night and prevail through early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 78 58 74 51 / 0 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 81 54 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 85 58 75 48 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 83 54 76 45 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 71 60 68 56 / 0 0 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 56 71 51 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ150-155- 170-175.