textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 511 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

- There is a low to medium (20-40%) chance of light rain or drizzle this evening into the overnight hours tonight, mainly along and west of US 281/I-69 C.

- Near to below average temperatures continue, possibly through Thursday night, followed by a slight warming trend with near to above average temperatures Friday and this weekend.

- A dry cold front is likely Wednesday night into Thursday morning as well as another, much weaker, cold front Friday night or Saturday.

- There is some concern for elevated fire weather Wednesday and Thursday, though Fire Danger Statements are not anticipated a this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1145 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

A relatively quiet weather pattern is expected across Deep South Texas over the next 7 days. Some upper level divergence provided by a mid-level low, moving eastward from northern Mexico into western Texas tonight, brings a low to medium (30-40%) chance of light showers or drizzle this evening through tonight mainly along and west of US 281/I-69 C, with the best chance over the Rio Grande Plains. Yet, rainfall amounts are expected to be light, generally to around a tenth of an inch. A few light showers may linger into Tuesday morning, though chances of rain decrease overall, to less than 10% by Tuesday evening along with northerly winds. Overnight Tuesday, lower level winds turn westerly into Wednesday ahead a of a strong ridge diving southeastward over the Northern and Central Plains, which is likely to turn winds back to northerly Wednesday night into Thursday as a dry cold front passes through. Although winds are anticipated to remain beneath Fire Danger Statement criteria on Wednesday and Thursday, downsloping westerly winds ahead of the front (on Wednesday) and drier air advected behind the front (on Thursday) are currently expected to result in low relative humidity values Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, ranging from 20-29% mainly west of I-69 E and 30-45% into the coastal areas further east. Such low relative humidity could lead to elevated fire weather conditions Wednesday and Thursday, particularly on Wednesday when 10-15 mph winds, gusting up to 20 mph, are possible.

Following, surface high pressure scoots eastward across the Gulf Coast, possibly shifting winds back to southerly by Friday ahead of another potential weak cold front Friday night or Saturday as a result of another ridge arriving over the Plains, possibly briefly shifting winds out of the north.

Below average high temperatures continue today into Tuesday, reaching into the mid/upper 60s to near 70 F on Tuesday as cloud cover and northerly winds prevail. Clearing skies on Wednesday allows temperatures to rise to around 10 degrees above average, into the mid/upper 70s, before falling back to the 60s and 70s on Thursday behind the front. 70s are anticipated Friday and onward along with variable wind and skies. Overnight lows remain in the 40s and 50s. A slight warming trend is anticipated Friday into this weekend, leading to near to slightly above average temperatures.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 511 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Through 00z Wednesday....VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 00z TAF period under a mostly cloudy (OVC-BKN) stratus deck.

Winds will be out of the north with speeds between 5-10 kts. Otherwise, winds will be light and variable to calm.

MARINE

Issued at 1145 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Gentle to moderate northeasterly winds and moderate (3-4 feet) seas continue tonight into Tuesday, becoming light to gentle with slight (1-2 feet) seas by Tuesday evening. Winds become westerly Tuesday night, increasing to moderate on Wednesday as a pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold front moving through the Lower Texas coastal waters Wednesday night. A Small Craft Advisory is possible Wednesday night into Thursday as the front ushers in fresh to strong northerly winds, leading to moderate (4-6 feet) seas. Conditions improve throughout Thursday and light to gentle south- southeasterly winds and slight to moderate (2-3 feet) seas return by Friday morning. Another weaker cold front is possible Friday night or Saturday. Aside from a low (15-30%) chance of light rain or drizzle tonight into Tuesday afternoon and again along the possible Friday night or Saturday, conditions remain dry with chances of rain less than 10%.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 54 69 52 77 / 20 10 0 0 HARLINGEN 48 67 47 78 / 20 10 0 0 MCALLEN 51 67 51 79 / 20 20 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 48 65 45 78 / 40 20 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 61 67 58 73 / 20 10 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 54 68 52 76 / 20 10 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...None.