textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1204 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

- Hazardous beach and marine conditions continue this weekend. Coastal flooding, dangerous surf, life-threatening rip currents, and rough seas are likely along the lower Texas beaches and Gulf waters.

- Mainly dry conditions expected through midweek, with rain chances returning late week in association with a cold front.

- Mostly minor risks of heat-related illnesses (level 1/4) become moderate (level 2/4) by next Monday as deep low-level moisture returns.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

While Isaias made landfall last night in the Florida panhandle, we will still have hazardous beach conditions due to the long period swell it created. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for area beaches until Monday morning. There is also a high risk of rip currents into Sunday afternoon and a High Surf Advisory into this evening. Conditions will begin to Sunday into Monday.

We will remain mostly dry through the first part of the coming week with only an isolated chance of a passing sea breeze shower or thunderstorm. As we head into late week, an approaching cold front will increase rain chances on Thursday and Friday. Models suggest the aforementioned cold front may pass through Deep South Texas Friday night into Saturday with rain chances remaining in the forecast into the weekend. Will continue to monitor for timing of the potential frontal passage, as there is likely to be some adjustments.

Temperatures will remain near to just above normal through the week with highs in the low to mid 90s. A cold front passage Friday night will lead to slightly below normal temperatures on Saturday. Heat indices remain in the 90s each afternoon through the first part of the period but as moisture increases heat indices will climb to 100-110 degrees Monday through Thursday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. East to southeasterly winds of 10-15 kts are expected today with an occasional higher gust possible.

MARINE

Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

The effects from hurricane Isaias has caused seas and swell to build along the lower Texas coastal waters. Small Craft Advisories are now in effect across coastal waters into early evening but are expected to improve tonight in Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 77 90 79 92 / 0 10 20 10 HARLINGEN 73 92 75 95 / 0 10 10 10 MCALLEN 76 94 78 97 / 0 10 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 74 94 76 96 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 86 82 88 / 0 10 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 89 78 91 / 0 10 10 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for TXZ451-454-455.

High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ451-454- 455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ150-155- 170-175.