textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 604 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Key Messages:

- A Fire Danger Statement continues through this evening. A Fire Weather Watch is also in effect tomorrow morning through tomorrow evening for the central and eastern counties of the CWA, excepting the islands.

- A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 06z tonight through 06z Friday for both the Bay and the Gulf waters.

- Beach hazards are expected with today's frontal passage. There is a high risk of life-threatening rip currents tonight and tomorrow.

- Temperatures will be cooler tomorrow and will warm Friday through the weekend. A slightly stronger front is expected by Monday, which will create similar hazards and keep temperatures closer to seasonal levels for early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

A cold front is expected to pass through Deep South Texas tonight, which will bring slightly cooler and much drier air to the region. This drier air, combined with the ongoing D2 to D4 drought, will create elevated fire concerns. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect through this evening, and a Fire Weather Watch is in effect for the central and eastern counties of the CWA for tomorrow following the frontal passage. Depending on wind speeds and how low the humidity gets behind the front, a Fire Danger Statement or Red Flag Warning may be needed tomorrow.

Unfortunately, there does not appear to be any drought relief next week, as precipitation chances remain below 10 percent. Tomorrow's high temperatures will be below seasonal averages in the mid 70s with lows in the mid-to-upper 40s. A warming trend commences on Friday and will continue through the weekend with highs topping out in the low to mid 90s. Another system moves through Sunday night into Monday which will bring a slightly stronger front to the region. This front will keep high temperatures in the mid-70s for a few days Monday and Tuesday, and possibly create more fire weather concerns for early next week.

There is also high risk of life-threatening rip currents at area beaches tonight and tomorrow.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 604 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Through 00z Friday...VFR condiitons are expected to prevail through the 00z TAF period under mainly clear skies.

Behind the passage of a cool front, northwest winds have picked up 10-20 kts with gusts as high as 25 knots or so this evening. These winds will remain elevated through tonight into Thursday with winds more out of the north.

MARINE

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for 06z tonight through 06z Friday. Adverse marine conditions are expected on the Bay and on the Gulf waters. Conditions should improve for the start of the weekend, but SCEC conditions are possible starting Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching system. More Small Craft Advisories may be needed Monday around the time of the frontal passage. Conditions should become more favorable Tuesday into Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 62 74 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 56 76 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 59 79 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 58 77 47 86 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 62 69 61 73 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 59 71 53 80 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ248>255-351- 353>355.

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for TXZ250-251-253>255-351-353>355.

High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for TXZ451-454- 455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.