textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1222 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

- There is a Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk Friday through Sunday.

- The National Hurricane Center continues to indicate a low chance (10%) of tropical development with a broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche, which is expected to move over eastern Mexico this weekend. This will result low to medium rain chances on Saturday and Sunday.

- Unsettled weather will continue through the middle of next week as remnant tropical moisture interacts with an approaching frontal boundary.

- There is a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents at area beaches through at least Friday and may continue through Sunday. Increasing swell may result in minor coastal flooding this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1041 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Mid-level ridging will continue to bring subsidence across the region for one more day across the region. High temperatures on Friday will be in the mid to upper 90s, except for the 80s at the beaches. Heat indices are forecast to range from 100 to 110 degrees Friday afternoon. The combination of high humidity and warm to hot temperatures will support a Moderate (level 2 of 4) heat risk across all of Deep South Texas on Friday. Generally, rain-free conditions are expected on Friday as the higher PWATS are expected to arrive Friday night. However, there is a low (15% or less) chance of isolated streamer showers or sea breeze convection during the afternoon.

The dry weather comes to an end Friday night as a westward-moving tropical wave currently located near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico tracks towards eastern Mexico this weekend. The National Hurricane Center continues to maintain a low chance (10%) of tropical development over the next 48 hours and 7 days. This feature will bring a surge of deep tropical moisture into Deep South Texas Friday night into Saturday. Precipitable water values between 2 to 2.5 inches will support an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity starting early Saturday.

There is a medium to high (30 to 70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. However, There remains some uncertainty around timing of showers and thunderstorms. Any showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, and isolated amounts upwards of 1 to 2 inches will be possible in any shower or thunderstorm. Rain wanes Saturday night with another round of showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf waters and the near the coast. Rain chances are low to moderate (20-60%) for Sunday with locally heavy rainfall possible.

The unsettled weather will continue across the region through the middle of next week as the high moisture content remains in place. A 500mb shortwave trough is forecast to swing over the Plains and Texas, pushing a weak cold front across the state Monday into Tuesday before stalling across South Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday. The latest NBM guidance continues to indicate the potential for heavy rainfall (2-3+ inches) Monday through Wednesday across portions of the CWA. All of Deep South Texas is highlighted in a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for Monday and Monday night. Would not be surprised to see the Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall to be extended into Tuesday as the NBM is indicating higher QPF values during this time. Increased cloud cover and rain chances lead to slightly lower daytime temperatures through the weekend into early next week. However, a Moderate (level 2 of 4) heat risk will continue across much of Deep South Texas through Sunday.

There is a Moderate risk of rip currents at area beaches through at least Friday and may continue through Sunday. Adverse beach conditions, including coastal runup, will be possible as swell increases this weekend with a broad area of low pressure/tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Through 06z Saturday....VFR conditions, by and large, will prevail through the 06z TAF cycle. There could be a few MVFR clouds around from time to time.

Winds will continue out of the southeast through the forecast period with speeds between 5-15 kts. During the afternoon hours, there could be gusts as high as 20-25 kts.

MARINE

Issued at 1041 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Generally favorable marine conditions will continue through Friday with slight to moderate seas and low to moderate southeast winds. Exercise Caution conditions will be possible tonight into Friday on the Gulf waters as winds and seas become elevated. Adverse conditions will return late Friday into the weekend with increasing swell as a tropical wave approaches eastern Mexico. This will result in Small Craft Advisories for the weekend. Rain chances will increase over the Lower Texas Coastal and Gulf waters by the weekend and continue into the middle of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 93 80 90 81 / 10 40 70 20 HARLINGEN 93 77 90 77 / 10 20 60 10 MCALLEN 96 79 92 79 / 10 10 70 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 97 77 93 77 / 10 10 50 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 83 86 83 / 10 30 60 40 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 80 88 80 / 10 20 60 30

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.