textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1026 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Key Messages

- Mainly dry weather and breezy to windy conditions continue to lead to some fire weather concerns each afternoon.

- Temperatures warm to near 10-15 degrees above average by the middle of this upcoming week.

- Adverse marine conditions and increased risks of rip currents are likely by the middle of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1026 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Much of the forecast for Deep South Texas into next weekend remains the same as previous updates, with mostly dry weather along with breezy to windy southeasterly winds, leading to some fire weather concerns each afternoon. Ridging aloft continues into the beginning of next week and weak mid-level disturbances embedded within the subtropical jet result in a slightly tightened pressure gradient across the CWA Sunday and Monday, with afternoon gusts up to around 20-25 mph possible. The gradient tightens further by Tuesday, increasing afternoon gusts up to 20-30 mph, or greater, into the remainder into the later parts of the week as troughing aloft develops surface low pressure systems passing over the Central/Southern Plains on Tuesday and over the Northern Plains on Thursday. There may be a brief break to this pattern next weekend with the possibility of increased rain chances as recent runs of the GFS and ECMWF portray a stronger mid/upper level deepening over the western US.

As freeze-cured fuels remain abundant within the moderate-severe drought across the region, there are some fire weather concerns each afternoon, especially over western portions of the Brush Country and Upper Rio Grande Valley. Yet, concerns are limited and Fire Danger Statement conditions are likely to be borderline as 20 foot winds are be a bit too weak through Monday afternoon while increasing onshore southeasterly winds result in slightly elevated relative humidity values by Tuesday afternoon. However, will continue to monitor as forecast elements may change. Regardless, refraining from outdoor burning and being very cautious of flames are strongly recommended.

A slight warming trend brings temperatures to about 10-15 degrees above average by Tuesday, with highs in the 90s further west gradually expanding eastward to as far east as I-69 E, perhaps even approaching coastal areas later in the week. Inland areas further east rise to the mid/upper 80s while temperatures along the immediate Gulf coast reach into the mid 70s. Overnight temperatures fall to the 60s region-wide, possibly warming to near 70 F across portions of the RGV by Tuesday night.

A low risk of rip currents continues through Sunday afternoon. Risks are likely to increase by the middle of the week as southeasterly winds enhance.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1026 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Light southeasterly winds continue overnight as MVFR ceilings develop over KHRL and KMFE, possibly KBRO as well, by around 09Z, before increasing back to VFR by Sunday afternoon as breezy southeasterly winds return.

MARINE

Issued at 1026 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Moderate southeasterly winds and slight to moderate (2-3 feet) continue through Monday. Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines are likely each afternoon beginning Tuesday, particularly across the Laguna Madre and Nearshore Gulf Waters (0-20 NM), where a locally enhanced pressure gradient results in moderate to fresh winds along with moderate (3-6 feet) seas over the Gulf Waters (0-60 NM). There is a low (15-30%) chances of rain Tuesday into Wednesday and possibly a low to medium (20-40%) chance next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 66 83 66 84 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 62 86 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 67 89 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 65 91 63 92 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 68 76 68 77 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 64 81 64 82 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.