textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 515 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

* A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for all of Deep South Texas on Sunday due to an elevated risk for fire weather.

* Continued breezy winds out of the north will result in continued marine and coastal hazard concerns through Sunday. * Normal to cooler than normal temperatures and a mainly rain-free weather pattern is expected through next week.

* Another strong cold front is expected to arrive late next week into next weekend; rain chances and additional marine/coastal hazards are possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 929 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Latest radar/satellite analysis and observations this evening showed a band of scattered showers over the region with the greatest coverage located west of IH-69C and over the Northern Ranchlands. Outside of a few passing post-frontal showers, dry conditions will prevail tonight with blustery north-northwest winds continuing. Tonight will also be chilly with overnight low temperatures mainly in the 40s (near 50F degrees along the RGV and 50s along the Lower Texas Coast).

A full dry and cool air advection (CAA) regime will be in place on Sunday fostered by a 1032-1036 mb modified Canadian sfc high pressure system overhead. Despite a mainly overcast stratus deck overhead, the risk for elevated fire weather concerns across Deep South Texas increases on Sunday (see FIRE WEATHER SECTION for more details). Please review fire weather safety tips and practice fire weather safety measures.

Outside of the elevated fire weather threat on Sunday, rain-free weather conditions are expected with cooler than normal temps. High temperatures on Sunday will struggle to make it out of the 60s (some 5-10F degrees below normal) across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Normal to cooler than normal temps will continue through Tuesday with mainly rain-free weather conditions continuing. There could be a passing shower or two Monday night and again Tuesday night. Monday and Tuesday, high temperatures will mostly be in the 60s across the region with overnight low temperatures Sunday night through Tuesday night mainly in the 40s (lower 50s along the Mid to Lower Valley).

A major large-scale weather pattern change is expected to take place midweek next week. The 500 mb pattern is expected to become highly amplified and will feature a dipole type pattern (warm/hot West U.S. vs. a cool/cold East U.S. alignment) with anomalously strong ridging over the eastern Pacific Ocean into western Canada/U.S. and anomalously strong troughing downstream over central and eastern U.S. This pattern coincides with a negative Eastern Pacific Oscillation/-EPO, a positive Pacific North America Oscillation/+PNA, and a negative Arctic Oscillation/-AO as models suggest. That said, mid next week to next weekend, a couple of cool/cold fronts are expected to sweep through the region.

Ahead of the first cool front and still under a northwest flow regime at the sfc and aloft, Wednesday will be one of the warmer days of the forecast period thanks to a bit more sunlight/incoming solar radiation compared to prior days. High temperatures will top out in the low to mid 70s across Deep South Texas, some ~5F degrees above normal. The dry continental cool front is expected to pass through the region Wednesday night into Thursday. This will result in slightly cooler temperatures on Thursday with highs returning to near seasonable levels (lower 70s).

High temperatures rebound on Friday as a return flow develops out of the south. High temperatures are expected to top out in the mid 70s to near 80F degrees along the RGV.

Friday night into next Saturday, medium range forecast models and ensembles are depicting a stronger cold front that is expected to sweep through the region. This cold front will bring a notable airmass change along with the potential for increased marine/coastal hazards. Additionally, this cold front could result in increased rain chances on Saturday due to increased sfc convergence and instability associated with the frontal boundary.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 515 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected to persist through the TAF cycle at all TAF sites. Winds are expected to remain out of the north and could be gusty at times with gusts up to 25 knots possible. Some clouds are possible at times, but should not be enough to effect the flight categories.

MARINE

Issued at 929 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Continued blustery north-northwest winds will result in continued hazardous or dangerous marine and beach conditions through Sunday afternoon. The Small Craft Advisory has been extended to 9 PM CST Sunday due to the elevated winds and still high wave heights.

Marine will improve to SCEC Sunday night into Monday. By Tuesday, favorable marine conditions return with low to moderate winds and seas. Favorable marine conditions will continue through Wednesday.

Wednesday night into Thursday, marine conditons could become adverse (SCEC) due to the passage of a weak cool front. A brief period of favorable marine conditions could return Thursday night through Friday. However, hazardous marine conditions could develop again over next weekend in association with a stronger cold front.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 929 PM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Elevated fire weather concerns across Deep South Texas increase on Sunday. This evening's 00z BRO sounding revealed very dry air above the sfc with 850 mb dewpoints (Td) in the single digits. Latest forecast is suggesting minimum relative humidity (RH) values to drop to between 15-40% across much of the region on Sunday, courtesy of a continental airmass building into the region on blustery northerly winds. 20ft winds are expected to range between 7-16 kts with peak gusts between 15-25 kts.

Texas A&M Forest Service has most of Deep South Texas under a "Moderate Fire Danger Risk" for Sunday with a pocket of "High to Very High Fire Danger Risk" over the populated Lower Rio Grande Valley that includes Brownsville, Rancho Viejo, Harlingen eastward towards South Padre Island.

Additionally, it has been incredibly dry across the region. The latest drought status from the U.S. Drought Monitor has a line from just west of McAllen (western half of Hidalgo) to Sarita (Inland Kenedy County) and points west under a D2 (Severe Drought) to D3 (Extreme Drought). Meanwhile, much of the Lower Valley is under a D0 (Abnormally Dry) to D1 (Moderate Drought) status.

Bottomline, given the dry antecedent conditions coupled with the increasingly dry airmass expected on Sunday, increasing mixing heights into an even drier column above the sfc, and at times blustery conditions, have decided to issue a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) for an elevated fire danger threat for all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Sunday from 6 AM CST to 6 PM CST. Please review fire weather safety tips and practice fire weather safety measures.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 64 51 69 53 / 10 20 10 10 HARLINGEN 63 47 67 48 / 10 10 10 10 MCALLEN 64 50 67 50 / 10 20 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 62 46 67 47 / 20 10 10 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 64 58 66 60 / 10 20 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 64 51 68 53 / 10 10 10 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for TXZ451-454- 455.

High Surf Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for TXZ451-454- 455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ130-132- 135-150-155-170-175.