textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1219 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026
* Hot and rain-free conditions continue through early next week, with Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk and Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk expected throughout Deep South Texas.
* There is a Moderate Risk of life-threatning rip currents at area beaches through tomorrow.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026
An area of high pressure continues to develop in the Gulf and is expected to drift towards the Lower Texas Coast through the weekend. This will bring hot and rain-free conditions through the end of next week to Deep South Texas.
Guidance continues to trend warmer with the temperatures, with most of Deep South Texas reaching the triple digits every day through the end of next week. Record temperatures are possible next week, and heat indices should range between 102-110. Moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk will be a concern for all of Deep South Texas every day between now and the end of next week, with pockets of Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk possible each day as well. Urban areas in the Rio Grande Valley are most likely to see higher Heat Risk. Potential Heat Advisories are not out of the question (especially for the Coastal Counties) this weekend into next week due to high heat indices.
A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents continues into the weekend, with conditions expected to improve by the end of the weekend as high pressure becomes stronger over the Gulf.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026
VFR conditions are expected at all airports for the duration of the TAF period. Skies should be partly cloudy, with light to moderate southeasterly winds.
MARINE
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026
Overall favorable conditions are expected, but there is a potential for brief Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions on the Bay due to elevated afternoon wind speeds. Otherwise, winds should remain light to moderate and southeasterly, with low wave heights.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 94 80 95 80 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 96 78 97 77 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 100 80 101 79 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 100 78 102 78 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 81 88 81 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 93 79 93 79 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None. GM...None.
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