textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 605 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Hot with generally rain-free conditions through late week. However, there is a low (10-30%) rain chance across the Ranchlands and near the coast midweek.

- Highs in the mid to upper 90s to around 100 degrees along with afternoon heat indices of 100-110 will maintain mostly moderate heat risks (level 2 of 4).

- There is a medium risk of life-threatening rip currents through at least Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1037 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Generally rain-free and hot conditions are forecast through late week as mid-level ridging builds into the region. However, low (10- 30%)rain chances are expected across the northern ranchlands and near the coast Wednesday as a mid-level disturbance moves over South Texas. The combination of high moisture content, weakness aloft and daytime will support mainly daytime showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has extreme northwestern Zapata County within a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 1 of 4) with the possibility of isolated flash flooding Wednesday into Wednesday night. Some convection will be possible across portions of the Rio Grande Plains Tuesday night and Wednesday night as well. Rain-free conditions, except for the coastal waters, return Thursday into the weekend as subsidence increases.

Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected through the period with highs in the mid to upper 90s, except near the coast. High temperatures will be a few degrees higher by the weekend with several locations, especially near Falcon Lake, reaching the triple digits. Overnight lows generally range from the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. Elevated dewpoints and hot temperatures will lead to heat index values between 100-110 degrees each afternoon. This will maintain mainly a moderate heat risk (level 2 of 4) each day.

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue along the lower Texas beaches through at least mid week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

VFR is expected at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Breezy winds will occur during the daylight hours, with lighter winds at night. Convection cannot be ruled out, but coverage is likely to be isolated and has been kept out of the TAFs for this forecast cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1037 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Generally favorable conditions will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast through the weekend. Moderate southeast winds and low to moderate seas are expected through the period. However, brief periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will be possible at times in the afternoon and evening, mainly on the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters (0-20 nm) out. There is a low rain chance (10-30%) Wednesday and Thursday over the Gulf waters. Winds and seas will be possible with any showers and thunderstorms that develop.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 94 81 93 81 / 0 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 95 79 94 78 / 0 10 10 0 MCALLEN 99 81 97 81 / 0 10 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 100 79 97 79 / 0 0 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 82 88 81 / 0 10 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 80 91 80 / 0 10 10 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.