textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1110 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

- Light Patchy Fog will be possible overnight into Friday morning.

- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures expected through next week.

- A weak cold front will move through the region this weekend bringing drier air this weekend into next week that could lead to increased fire weather concerns. Thunderstorm risk is expected to stay north of Deep South Texas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1110 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Warm and dry conditions will persist through late next week. This weekend, an upper level shortwave is expected to move over Texas, which will bring a weak cold front to Deep South Texas on Saturday. Prior to the cold front's arrival, high temperatures are expected to reach the upper 80s/lower 90s Saturday afternoon. The front is expected to slightly cool high temperatures into the mid-80s for a few days before temperatures creep back into the upper 80s/low 90s by next Tuesday. Low temperatures will cool from the the upper 50s/lower 60s to the low 50s Monday and Tuesday mornings.

Rain and thunderstorm chances associated with this shortwave/frontal passage appear to be primarily outside of the CWA, since the jet streak and best upper-level divergence is expected to pass to our north-northeast with the shortwave's ejection. Model guidance seems to be consistent with this trajectory; therefore precipitation chances for Deep South Texas remain below 20% for Saturday. A shower or two cannot be ruled out in very northern portions of the CWA, however, particularly in Brooks and Kenedy Counties, as these areas are close to portions of Corpus's CWA under a general thunderstorm risk for Saturday. However, none of our CWA is included in this risk at this time. If, for some reason, model guidance were to trend the shortwave's ejection a little further south, we could potentially see an increase in shower and thunderstorm potential for Saturday. However, model guidance continues to keep higher rain chances and thunderstorm risk to our north. We will continue to monitor. There is some concern for for fire danger potential this weekend associated with the frontal passage. Wind speed guidance over the past few days has trended wind speeds slower, which is better for inhibiting fire spread. At this time, it is uncertain if any fire danger products will need to be issued. If so, the greatest likelihood would be for Sunday, when wind speeds could approach 15 knots in some areas. Humidities are expected to fall between 20-30% for most of the CWA Sunday (excepting coastal areas), which means that freeze-cured fuels could still catch quickly even if Fire Danger Statement criteria is not met. Therefore, outdoor burning is still strongly discouraged.

Following the weak frontal passage, upper level ridging with semi- zonal flow is expected for the region next week, which will keep the weather warm and dry through at least the latter part of the week. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions are expected, with winds shifting from the north-northeast on Sunday and Monday back to the east-southeast by Tuesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1110 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VRF conditions with scattered clouds and southeasterly winds are expected throughout the day into tonight. There is a chance that some light fog could develop in the early morning hours, which could reduce conditions for MVFR for HRL and BRO anytime between 09 and 12z. MFE may could reach IFR conditions around this time, as any fog that develops is expected to be slightly heavier there.

MARINE

Issued at 1110 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Favorable marine conditions are expected the remainder of today into tomorrow afternoon, before wind speeds pick up bringing Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions to the Gulf Waters tomorrow night through Sunday. Conditions should become favorable again by Monday at the latest. SCEC conditions could also briefly return on Wednesday as well.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 65 82 67 84 / 0 0 10 10 HARLINGEN 60 84 63 87 / 0 0 10 10 MCALLEN 65 87 68 92 / 0 0 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 63 89 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 65 74 67 76 / 0 0 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 62 79 64 83 / 0 0 10 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.