textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1244 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

- A strong cold front will bring strong winds, and markedly cooler changes along with multiple weather hazards (marine, beach, fire, and wind) Friday into the weekend.

- Northerly winds 15-30 mph are expected to gusts as high as 45-55 mph Friday into Saturday.

- Medium (30-50%) rain shower chances on Friday along the cold front.

- Temperatures rebound next week with the potential for additional rain showers early to mid next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1049 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Major changes to the weather pattern is expected to take place in the next 12-24 hours across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Multiple weather hazards including a Red Flag Warning, Wind Advisories, Gale Warning, High Rip Current Risk, Coastal Flood Advisory, and a High Surf Advisory are in effect ahead of a strong cold front, which is now pushing through central Texas, that will sweep through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley on Friday. The cold front will arrive over the Rio Grande Valley sometime during the late morning to early afternoon hours. High temperatures will have enough time to climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s along the valley before the cold front pushes through. Immediately behind the cold front is a strong, sprawling 1040 mb Canadian high pressure system. The combination of the cold front and Canadian High will result in tight isobars or an enhanced pressure gradient over the region. Ultimately, this will result in strong, stiff north winds developing Friday afternoon. Many computer models continue to show north winds 15-30 mph with peak gusts as high as 45-55+ mph Friday afternoon through Friday night.

A Wind Advisory is in effect for Friday and Saturday for much of Deep South Texas to take into account the strong winds. These strong wind will result in multiple coastal and marine hazards Friday through Saturday (see MARINE SECTION for more details). Drier air will build into the region behind the fropa on Friday. Relative humidity (RH) values will drop through the day on Friday/Friday night with little to no recovery. Due to the combination of lower relative humidity values and strong winds, we've decided to upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning Friday/Friday night. Another Fire Danger Statement or Red Flag Warning may be needed on Saturday as RH values drop even more on top of still breezy north winds. Isolated to scattered showers are possible with the cold frontal passage on Friday. Any rain showers are expected to be light to moderate.

Much cooler temperatures will develop Friday night through Saturday night with lows in the 50s most places. Saturday and Sunday, high temperatures will be well below normal levels with values in the low to mid 70s on Saturday and upper 70s to near 80F degrees on Sunday.

Temperatures are expected to rebound back to warmer than normal levels (high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s) Tuesday through Friday of next week as a 591 hpa heat dome builds over the region. There is a chance for additional showers Monday night into Wednesday as well.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

The passage of a cold front on Friday will bring breezy to windy generally northerly winds at that time. A TEMPO has been included for the possibility of showers and is based on the HRRR model.

MARINE

Issued at 1049 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

A strong cold front will bring strong winds to the region Friday into Saturday. These winds will result in multiple coastal/marine hazards Friday into Sunday (at least). A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Laguna Madre and the Gulf Waters from 10AM Friday to 1PM Saturday. A Coastal Flood Advisory and a High Surf Advisory are in effect along the Lower Texas Coast from 1PM Friday to 7AM Sunday. Finally, a High Rip Current Risk is in effect from Friday morning to Sunday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 88 61 73 61 / 40 20 0 0 HARLINGEN 89 58 75 57 / 30 0 0 0 MCALLEN 90 60 76 59 / 40 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 87 58 75 56 / 50 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 85 67 73 68 / 50 20 20 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 86 62 73 61 / 40 10 10 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ248>255-353.

Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ250-251-253>255-353.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ351-354-355-451-454-455.

High Rip Current Risk from 7 AM CDT this morning through Sunday morning for TXZ451-454-455.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ451-454-455.

High Surf Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.