textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1121 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

- Above normal temperatures are expected to continue into early next week. A cold front mid-week looks to bring more seasonable temperatures to the area.

- A medium to high chance (50-70%) of showers and thunderstorms are forecast for Saturday. Rain chances decrease Sunday morning but are forecast to return mid-week with the next cold front.

- Adverse marine and coastal conditions are possible Sunday and Monday due to moderate to breezy winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1121 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

A cold front slowly moving south through Texas looks to stall just north of the CWA Saturday, before retreating back to the north Saturday night. Increased forcing and moisture ahead of the front could support scattered showers and thunderstorms across the CWA Saturday, with rain chances ranging from 50-70%. As the boundary moves further north, rain chances will subside to 15-30% Sunday morning with near zero rain chances returning by Sunday afternoon.

High temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to low 90s into early next week. High temperatures could be a couple of degrees cooler Saturday afternoon, largely remaining in the upper 80s, thanks to increased cloud cover across the area.

A deep upper level trough looks to extend along the Rocky Mountains early next week, with an embedded shortwave moving into the Central Plains Monday. This looks to support cyclogenesis over western Kansas/Nebraska and southern Alberta/Saskatchewan Sunday night into Monday. The weak cold front associated with the Surface low over Kansas looks to extend across West Texas Monday, and slowly approach Deep South Texas Tuesday, likely stalling just to the north or across the CWA. A stronger cold front associated with the system over Canada, looks to rapidly drop south across the Central Plains Tuesday and likely moving through Deep South Texas Wednesday.

Rain chances look to increase to around 20% Tuesday as the first of the mid-week cold front approaches and stalls across the region. Rain chances further increase to around 30-50% Wednesday as the stronger cold front moves through the area.

The frontal passage Wednesday will likely bring cooler temperatures across the area, with high temperatures forecast to be in t mid to upper 70s Wednesday and the low to mid 70s Thursday. Low temperatures in the 60s to low 70s early next week look to fall into the 50s across the area Wednesday night.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue this afternoon and into the overnight hours. A cold front slowly moving south through Texas will likely stall just north of the area tonight. Rain chances are forecast to increase ahead of the front, with scattered showers and thunderstorms becoming possible Saturday morning. Confidence is fairly low on the timing for when any showers or thunderstorms could impact the airfields, though probabilities do increase towards the end of the period. Any showers or thunderstorms that do move over an airfield could produce MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities.

MARINE

Issued at 1121 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Generally favorable marine conditions look to continue through Sunday afternoon. Tightening pressure gradients along the Lower Texas Coast Sunday evening will likely support stronger winds and higher seas across the coastal waters and Laguna Madre Sunday evening into Monday. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines will likely be needed, and a brief Small Craft advisory could be possible Sunday night. Conditions look to improve by Tuesday.

A series of cold fronts look to approach area Tuesday and move through the are Wednesday. Rain chances will likely increase ahead of and along the fronts. Winds will likely shift to the north Wednesday, and wind speeds may approach criteria for Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 73 87 73 86 / 20 50 20 10 HARLINGEN 70 87 69 87 / 10 60 20 10 MCALLEN 73 88 72 90 / 20 50 20 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 71 88 69 91 / 20 50 30 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 82 76 82 / 20 50 20 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 85 71 85 / 20 60 20 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.