textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 621 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Key Messages:

* Cold front brings low to medium (20-50%) chance of rain through tonight, and gusty winds to 40 mph tonight and Saturday. Thunderstorms are possible. * Life-threatening conditions along the lower TX coast Saturday with High Surf and High Risk of Rip Currents.

* Adverse marine conditions in wake of the cold front with a Small Craft Advisory tonight through Saturday.

* Sharp cool-down Saturday, with highs in the 70s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

A cold front is working its way through deep S TX this afternoon, expanding from Rio Grande City to Kenedy County at the time of writing. Scattered showers are forming along and behind the cold front. Latest hi-res models are in decent agreement that the majority of storms/convection along the front or associated with a shortwave over central TX will remain to the north of our CWA. A strong thunderstorm or two in the northern Ranchlands this afternoon- evening cannot be ruled out. PoPs this afternoon and evening are low- moderate to capture the spotty nature of the showers along the front. PoPs are highest (20-50%) along the front, which will continue moving southeastward before exiting the Valley before midnight.

The environment is favorable for severe weather, however, the cap over deep S TX today is difficult to overcome. The strongest forcing mechanism - a midlevel shortwave in central TX - will remain to the north. The severe threat appears limited. SPC has placed BRO in a general thunderstorm (limited to no severe) severe weather outlook for today and tonight. With any thunderstorms that develop, the greatest hazards are lightning, briefly heavy rain, small hail, and gusty winds to 55mph.

High temperatures today have already started dropping behind the front - in the 60s in Zapata and Hebbronville, but will continue climbing to the 90s in the RGV until northerly winds settle in later this evening. Overnight, CAA will continue funneling in cooler air, leaving Saturday morning low temps around 60. High temperatures tomorrow will struggle to climb past the mid 70s (low 70s along the coast).

After the cold front moves offshore tonight, a strong pressure gradient will bring gusty winds from sunset into Saturday morning, with gusts to 35-40 mph. Coastal troughing behind the front has a low-medium chance (20-50%) to bring more showers and thunderstorms to the Valley Saturday morning. These should diminish through the day Saturday as the coastal low continues moving offshore. Dry conditions are expected Saturday evening through at least mid-week.

In the wake of the front, conditions along lower TX beaches will be hazardous, with dangerous surf and a high risk of rip currents. There is a high risk of rip currents starting tonight at 7 PM lasting through Saturday, and a High Surf Advisory beginning at 1 AM tonight. Strong winds may leave concerns for minor coastal flooding early tomorrow morning around high tide.

Sunday through Tuesday, temperatures gradually climb, returning to the 90s. Long range guidance is hinting at another cold front near the end of the period; stay tuned as forecast details get ironed out.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

MVFR and potentially IFR conditions are expected through most of the TAF period following a frontal passage, just moving through BRO at the moment. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible overnight, but radar has remained fairly clear into this evening so far and models have trended drier overnight. Northerly winds have increased substantially and will remain gusty into Saturday afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 154 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Southerly flow will shift northerly following cold front passage this evening, increasing to strong with gusts to near-gale. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect this evening through Saturday due to strong winds and rough seas. There is a low to medium (20 to 50 percent) chance of showers and thunderstorms along the front through this evening. Similar rain chances persist Saturday with showers behind the front. Conditions begin to improve Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 62 74 63 81 / 50 30 0 0 HARLINGEN 59 75 59 82 / 40 20 0 0 MCALLEN 63 77 62 85 / 40 20 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 59 76 57 84 / 20 10 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 67 73 70 77 / 50 30 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 62 74 64 80 / 50 30 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ451-454- 455.

High Surf Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 1 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175.