textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1202 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Key Messages:

* Above normal temperatures will be the mainstay.

* Mainly dry conditions expected through the forecast period.

* Ongoing drought and very dry grass/brush means wildfires can start easily. Use caution with outdoor activities.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Mid-level high pressure over the Desert Southwest into western Texas will maintain well above normal afternoon temperatures (upper 80s to mid 90s) through the period. Overnight lows will remain in the 60s.

Generally dry conditions are expected with the only chance of rain on Tuesday afternoon (10-20%) along the coast and into the mid Valley due to a weak mid-level disturbance in the western Gulf.

A somewhat dry airmass will continue to limit humidity levels which will maintain the potential for fire weather concerns at times. A Rangeland Fire Danger Statement is in effect for much of Deep South Texas today. While winds will remain generally below any Red Flag Warning criteria, the ongoing drought with critical to extremely dry fuels could lead to rapid wildfire growth if ignited. The potential for rangeland fire dangers statements may needed periodically through the remainder of the forecast period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Southeasterly winds will gust up to around 25 kts this afternoon before decreasing this evening.

MARINE

Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Generally favorable marine conditions are expected on the waters off the lower Texas coast with wave heights around 3 ft and 5 to 6 second periods. Could see some caution conditions each afternoon, mainly on the Laguna Madre, with a slightly enhanced afternoon pressure gradient. Isolated showers are possible on Tuesday, mainly across the nearshore waters and Laguna Madre, but chances remain low (10-20%).

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 65 85 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 61 90 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 65 92 66 93 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 61 94 62 93 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 69 77 69 78 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 64 85 64 84 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.