textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 513 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

- Summer-like high temperatures and rain-free conditions are expected to continue.

- Another round of fog is possible tonight.

- Potential cold front could bring some relief from the week by next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1119 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

The forecast for the next several days is expected to be mostly dominated by a mid-level ridge, which will mean mostly rain-free conditions and above normal temperatures. Projected high temperatures are currently expected to be in the range of upper 80s to lower 90s for the period. This has also resulted in a minor heat risk for most of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley with the only exceptions being the coastal counties.

Around Friday and the start of the weekend, forecast models do indicate that a cold front will start to approach the area and could push through by the middle of the weekend. The advance of this cold front will be aided by an upper-level trough that will breakdown the mid-level ridge over the region. While there is no rainfall currently expected with this frontal boundary, the change in temperature is currently forecasted to be rather significant. The current high temperatures before the front moves through are expected to in the upper 80s to lower 90s. However the high temperatures for Monday after the front has completely moved through are expected to be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. However, given that this is still an evolving forecast further forecast shifts will need to continue to monitor the trends in the forecast to see if there are any other changes.

Another round of fog late tonight is possible. Given the low-level moisture advection with the expected light southeasterly winds and clear skies, the environment does appear to be favorable for the development of fog. Current model analysis does point towards the Upper Valley and the Northern Ranchlands having the greatest potential for the development of fog tonight, with the chance of fog reducing visibility to below one mile being medium to high (between 50 to 70%). However the Middle and Lower Valley does have a low chance (less than 30%) of seeing fog reduce visibility below one mile. A more likely scenario will have patchy shallow ground fog develop in many places.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 513 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with ESE winds diminishing slightly overnight and gusty SE winds to around 25 kts arriving by mid to late Tuesday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 1119 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Frequent periods of adverse marine conditions are possible mostly in the afternoon hours for the Gulf waters due to moderate southeasterly winds in the upper teens expected each day. This is likely to be a result of tighter pressure gradient due to the differential heating between the land and water surfaces. Wave heights for the period are expected to be generally in the range of 3 to 4 feet.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 62 82 65 84 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 57 86 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 63 89 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 60 91 61 92 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 65 75 67 76 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 60 81 63 82 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.