textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 529 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

- With the exception of Zapata and coastal/island portions of Cameron, Willacy and Kenedy counties, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for all of inland Deep South Texas Texas from 9 AM to 6 PM Sunday as gusty northerly to northeasterly winds coincide with low relative humidity values, resulting in critical fire weather conditions. - A Fire Danger Statement (RFD) is in effect for Zapata County from 9 AM to 6 PM as breezy northerly to northeasterly winds and low relative humidity result in elevated fire weather conditions.

- RFDs are likely on Monday and Tuesday as breezy conditions and low afternoon relative humidity continue. Another Fire Weather Watch ahead of a potential Red Flag Warning on Wednesday remains possible.

- Refraining from outdoor burning and being extremely cautious of flames is strongly urged as ongoing drought and abundant freeze-cured fuels continue to make our region susceptible to catching and rapidly spreading wildfires.

- Below average temperatures through Monday night become above average on Tuesday and onward.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1021 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

A mid-level high pressure moves west and northwestward across Mexico, transitioning zonal mid/upper level flow to ridging northwesterly flow by Monday, persisting through this upcoming week, keeping conditions dry across Deep South Texas for the entire forecast. At the surface, A tightening pressure gradient develops overnight tonight into Sunday as a 1050-1060 mb surface high over southern Canada spills southward through the Plains, resulting in gusty northerly to northeasterly winds of around 15-20 mph, gusting to 25-30 mph, tonight through Sunday afternoon, gradually decreasing to near 10-15 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph throughout Sunday evening. As the winds advect much drier air into the region, critical fire weather conditions are expected on Sunday and a Red Flag Warning (RFW) goes into effect for all inland portions of Deep South Texas (except for Zapata County) from 9 AM to 6 PM, also not including the coastal and island areas. A Fire Danger Statement goes into effect for Zapata County from 9 AM to 6 PM Sunday. See the Fire Section below for more details. Breezy northerly to northeasterly winds persist into Monday (with gusts up to 20 mph), becoming southeasterly by Tuesday. Fire weather conditions remain a concern into the beginning of the week and especially on Wednesday as a pressure gradient tightens ahead of a surface low pressure exiting the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains. As the low pressure moves north and northeast of our CWA, a cold front may move through on Thursday, yet the strength and timing of the front remains very uncertain at this time.

Cold air advection tonight drops temperatures to the 40s/50s, which is slightly below average for this time of year. A more noticeable change in temperatures is expected Sunday and Sunday night, with highs in the upper 60s/low 70s, falling to the 40s overnight, which is around 10 degrees cooler than average. A warming trend begins on Monday, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 40s/50s, warming to possibly widespread 90s on Thursday, which is around 10-15 degrees above average or even warmer. Temperatures may moderate into the end of next week, though likely remaining above average.

As northerly winds maximize overnight tonight, a High Surf Advisory goes into effect from 12 AM to 6 PM Sunday (for large breaking waves of 5 to 8 feet) while a High Risk of Rip Currents remains in effect until 6 PM Sunday. It is strongly recommended to not swim in these conditions due to dangerous seas and life-threatening rip currents.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 529 AM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours, with clearing skies and diminishing winds.

MARINE

Issued at 1021 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Strong northerly winds arriving overnight tonight continue to lead to deteriorating marine conditions into Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the nearshore (0- 20 nm) Gulf Waters and Laguna Madre until 12 PM Sunday as northerly winds of 15-25 knots, gusting to 30 knots, lead to 7-10 feet seas and rough conditions on the bay. Meanwhile, a Gale Warning remains in effect for the offshore (20-60 nm) Gulf Waters until 12 PM Sunday as northerly winds of 20-30 knots, gusting to 35 knots, result in seas of 7-12 feet. Winds and seas gradually improve throughout Sunday evening into Monday, though Small Craft Advisories (SCA) and/or Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) headlines remain possible. Gentle to moderate northeasterly winds and moderate (4-6 feet) seas return on Monday, becoming southeasterly by Tuesday. SCEC headlines are likely Tuesday night and could become SCA on Wednesday as a tightening pressure gradient increases moderate to fresh south-southeasterly to strong with moderate seas, possibly into Thursday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1021 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Elevated to critical fire weather concerns continue daily through the upcoming week across Deep South Texas as breezy to windy conditions coincide with low daytime afternoon relative humidity values. Further enhancing the risk of wildfires catching and spreading is the fact that our region remains within a D0-D4 Drought, ranging from abnormally dry conditions to exceptional drought; a D4 (Exceptional Drought) spans across portions of Jim Hogg and Brooks counties. It is highly urged to refrain from any outdoor burning and be extremely cautious of flames as any spark can lead to rapid wildfire growth, especially as freeze-cured fuels remain abundant across the region.

The first of two main critical fire weather condition periods is on Sunday as gusty northerly to northeasterly 20 foot, gusting in excess of 25 mph, continue to usher even more dry air, with relative humidity values across inland Deep South Texas dropping from near 35-55 percent in the morning to as low as around 10-40 percent in the afternoon (lowest further west). With the exception of Zapata and coastal/island portions of Cameron, Willacy and Kenedy counties, a Red Flag Warning is in effect for all of inland Deep South Texas Texas from 9 AM to 6 PM Sunday. Meanwhile, A Fire Danger Statement (RFD) is in effect for Zapata County from 9 AM to 6 PM as breezy northerly to northeasterly winds, gusting up to 20 mph, and low relative humidity values (around 10-15 percent) result in elevated fire weather conditions.

RFD are likely on Monday and Tuesday as breezy conditions continue with daytime minimum relative humidity values as low as 20-40 percent on Monday and 30-40 percent on Tuesday, when wind gusts up to 25 mph are possible again, mainly along/east of US-281. Simultaneously, a Fire Weather Watch may be issued ahead of another possible Red Flag Warning and/or RFD on Wednesday as winds could gust up to 25-35 mph, highest further east.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 69 48 71 54 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 70 44 72 48 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 73 48 75 53 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 73 43 74 48 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 66 58 66 59 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 68 50 70 54 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ249>255-353.

High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ451-454-455.

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ130-132-135-150- 155.

Gale Warning until noon CST today for GMZ170-175.