textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 634 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

- The National Hurricane Center has a high chance for tropical cyclone development over the southern Gulf in the next 48 hours. It is still to early to tell what if any impacts Deep South Texas may see if development occurs.

- Rain chances continue through the work week, with the best rain chances generally along and east of I-69C.

- High temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 80s to low 90s through Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1049 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Daily rain chances are forecast to continue through the week, with the highest rain chances roughly along and east of I-69C. An upper level trough is expected to dig south into South Texas Tuesday, which will likely support increased forcing across Deep South Texas. An amplifying shortwave may result in more widespread rain chances Thursday. Model guidance continues to support showers and thunderstorms developing over the Gulf then moving onshore with the sustained northeasterly low level flow. This will likely support training showers and thunderstorms, which could result in areas seeing repeated rounds of convection and increased rainfall accumulations. However, over the next couple days, the heaviest activity is forecast to remain to the south, or possibly clip portions of Cameron County. This will likely limit the potential for flooding across most of the area, though some ponding of water on roadways will remain possible.

As rain chances increase Thursday, the Weather Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall for Cameron, and Willacy counties, and eastern portions of Hidalgo and southeastern portions of Kenedy counties.

High temperatures are forecast to range from the upper 80s to low 90s through the work week, climbing to the low to mid 90s by the weekend. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to remain in the low to mid 70s through the week.

The National Hurricane Center is tracking a low pressure system in the southern Gulf with a 70% chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours and 80% chance of development in the next 7 days. It is still to early to determine what if any impacts Deep South Texas might see if development occurs.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Light northwest to north winds and mainly VFR ceilings prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. BRO radar continues to indicate some moderate to heavy activity over the Gulf waters and along the coast, northeast to east of the terminals. Will include a TEMPO at BRO for MVFR conditions in any convection. A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions are forecast this morning, then gradually transitioning to VFR later this morning. Intermittent showers are possible this morning, with the highest probabilities at BRO and HRL. Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the early evening hours.

MARINE

Issued at 1049 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Generally favorable winds and seas are forecast Tuesday and Wednesday, though scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain likely over the Gulf waters and Laguna Madre. Winds and seas are forecast to increase Thursday, and Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines or Small Craft Advisories may be needed going into the weekend.

The National Hurricane Center is tracking a low pressure system in the southern Gulf with a 70% chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours and 80% chance of development in the next 7 days. It is still to early to determine what if any impacts Deep South Texas might see if development occurs, however significant changes to the marine forecast are possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 87 76 89 77 / 80 60 70 40 HARLINGEN 89 72 91 72 / 70 30 60 30 MCALLEN 92 76 93 75 / 20 10 50 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 92 73 93 72 / 10 10 20 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 85 80 86 80 / 90 80 80 60 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 87 76 89 76 / 80 70 70 50

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.