textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 520 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

- Fire Danger Statements may be needed Wednesday and Sunday.

- May-like high temperatures are expected to persist through the rest of this week, before a cold front moves through on Saturday. - A cold front is expected to move through Deep South Texas on Saturday, which could result in multiple different hazards affecting the waters, coast, and inland. Keeping a particular eye out for fire weather conditions and rip currents.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 936 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

The subtropical ridge generally holds through the remainder of the week, maintaining above normal temperatures and dry weather through Friday. In fact, this week looks very similar to last week, and unfortunately, the remainder of February looks very dry. The next system aloft swings into the Southern Plains Friday night into Saturday, with a frontal boundary at the surface dropping south through Deep South Texas, bringing cooler temperatures but little to no chance of rain. The NBM still cooks the mid to upper valley on Thursday and Friday into the mid 90s and brings near normal highs Sunday into Monday behind the front, with near to below normal lows Monday and Tuesday morning. Latest model trends have come in a few degrees cooler Sunday into Tuesday morning, with the Canadian model dropping highs Sunday and Monday into the mid 60s.

Fire weather concerns continue through probably the rest of February, into the peak of the dormant fire weather season. Abundant cured fuels under moderate to probably soon to be exceptional drought conditions are only waiting for a spark and some wind. Expect RH values generally below 25-35 percent across all or portions of Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, Starr, and Hidalgo counties every afternoon, dropping another 5-10 percent further Saturday through Monday. Gusty afternoon winds are expected again on Wednesday, mainly along the coast and into the mid valley, where RH values are slightly higher. Extreme caution should be urged when working near any open flames or sparks into late February. An inviting beach and beautiful beach weather will also pose an increased threat of life-threatening rip currents mid to late week, and especially over the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

MVFR/VFR ceilings prevail across the region this morning, however there should be improvement to VFR expected by mid morning. Southerly winds will remain elevated through much of the TAF period, with wind gusts ranging from 20-30 knots into tonight. Another round of SCT to BKN stratus clouds are expected to develop tonight after 06-08Z.

MARINE

Issued at 936 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Southeasterly winds continue through the end of the week with afternoon gusts driving SCEC to borderline SCA conditions across the bay and offshore waters, especially north of Port Mansfield. A cold front arrives on Saturday with northerly winds and elevated seas into Monday. Southerly winds return into mid next week with gradually improving marine conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 84 68 87 68 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 87 64 92 64 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 91 67 96 68 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 90 64 96 65 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 69 79 68 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 83 66 87 65 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.