textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1214 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

- Hot temperatures, near record to record-breaking, are expected to continue into Labor Day Weekend. - Widespread Major (Level 3 of 4) to Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk of heat-related illness is expected each day. - Isolated sea breeze showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon, especially during Labor Day Weekend. - The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a disturbance across the northern Gulf, moving west-northwest toward the northwest Gulf, with a medium (50 percent) chance of development in 48 hours. No direct impacts are expected across Deep South Texas, with a potential increase in rip currents along the coast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

The 500mb ridge of high pressure continues to push towards the Southeast US, which will maintain mid-summer like heat and a persistent influx of tropical moisture into Texas into Labor Day weekend. Weaker pressure along the Gulf coast around the southern edge of the ridge may combine with the added moisture to initiate isolated sea breeze showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon hours, with the highest chances (roughly 20 to 30 percent) beginning Friday.

The National Hurricane Center is continuing to monitor a disturbance in the northern Gulf working WNW with a medium (50 percent) chance of development in 48 hours. Any development into the northwest Gulf could potentially create more subsidence locally, leaning into warmer, drier, and more stable air across South Texas mid week, as well as increase the potential for life- threatening rip currents along the coast.

The added humidity on top of above normal to near record high temperatures will continue a widespread Major (level 3 of 4) to Extreme (level 4 of 4) Heat Risk for heat-related illness each day, with little to no relief each night. Heat Advisories may be needed.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with breezy southeasterly winds this afternoon and again Sunday afternoon. An isolated sea breeze shower or thunderstorm is possible over the next couple of hours, generally working westward.

MARINE

Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds and low to moderate seas are expected to prevail across the coastal waters of Deep South Texas through the forecast period. A daily chop is expected on the bay next week with Gulf seas of generally 1 to 3 feet. There is a low (less than 25 percent) chance of showers and thunderstorms. The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a disturbance across the northern Gulf moving WNW towards the northwest Gulf with a medium (50 percent) chance of development in 48 hours.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 81 98 81 98 / 10 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 77 102 77 102 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 81 104 80 104 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 79 105 78 105 / 10 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 90 81 90 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 96 79 96 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.