textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1211 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

- A strong cold front will bring strong winds, cooler temperatures, and multiple weather hazards (marine, beach, fire, and wind) across Deep South Texas into the weekend.

- Northerly winds of 15-30 mph are expected to gust as high as 45 mph today into Saturday.

- Low to medium (20-40%) rain shower chances along the cold front, mainly across the Valley and along the coast. - Temperatures rebound next week with the potential for additional rain showers early to mid next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

A cold front moving through the region has prompted numerous weather hazards across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley today into Sunday. These hazards include: a Red Flag Warning, Wind Advisories, Gale Warning, High Rip Current Risk, Coastal Flood Advisory, and a High Surf Advisory.

Ahead of the cold front, temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s in the Valley before the front pushes through later this afternoon. Isolated showers are possible with the frontal passage, mainly along the coast.

In wake of the front, a strong high pressure system will bring gusty winds and cooler temperatures. Winds could gust high as 45 mph this afternoon into tonight. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Brooks, Kenedy, Willacy, Cameron, and Hidalgo counties until 7 AM Saturday, and until 1 PM Saturday right along the coast.

The drier air in wake of the front in combination with high winds has lead to a Red Flag Warning for all of Deep South Texas from 1 PM today until 7 AM Saturday. A Fire Danger Statement or another Red Flag Warning may be needed on Saturday as RH values drop even more on top of still breezy north winds.

The high winds also will lead to hazardous beach conditions with a High Risk of rip currents, Coastal Food Advisory and a High Surf Advisory in in effect until Sunday morning.

Cooler overnight temperatures are expected through Saturday night with lows in the 50s across much of the region. Saturday and Sunday, high temperatures will be well below normal levels with values in the low to mid 70s on Saturday and upper 70s to near 80F degrees on Sunday. Temperatures will be back into the upper 80s to low 90s by the the early to middle part of next week.

Rain chances return midweek along the coast a trough develops offshore. Chances remain low (20-30%).

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A cold front moving through Deep South Texas will led to very windy conditions this afternoon into Saturday. Northerly winds around 20kts are expected with gusts of 30-35 kts, possibly higher. As the front approaches could see some brief MVFR conditions as well as isolated showers. Confidence remains too low on any of these showers moving over the airports so left out of the TAF package.

MARINE

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

A strong cold front will bring strong winds and hazardous marine conditions into Sunday. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Laguna Madre and the Gulf Waters until 1 PM Saturday. Expect seas of 11-16 ft and wind gusts to around 40kts. By Sunday winds and seas will become more favorable.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 61 74 62 79 / 10 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 58 75 58 80 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 60 76 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 58 75 56 79 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 67 74 69 77 / 10 10 10 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 62 74 62 79 / 10 10 10 20

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ248>255-353.

Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ250-251-253>255-353.

Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ351-354-355-451-454- 455.t

High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ451-454-455.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ451-454-455.

High Surf Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Gale Warning until 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ130-132-135-150-155- 170-175.