textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 544 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

- A rainy pattern is expected to continue into early next week, with moderate to high rain chances (40-80%).

- All of Deep South Texas is under a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall Saturday and Monday, with a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall Sunday. Isolated flash flooding is possible in areas that receive heavier rain.

- Cooler temperatures will continue through the end of next week following the frontal passage. Temperatures will be pleasant with highs in the 70s and 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1223 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Following today's frontal passage, conditions are expected to mostly dry out the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, but with a few lingering light showers behind the front. Drier conditions are expected to continue through late evening, with precipitation chances remaining below 20% for most areas. Areas closest to the coast are most likely to receive a shower or two this evening. Widespread rain chances are expected to creep up again overnight as the atmosphere remains in an overall unsettled pattern. Another upper-level trough is expected to move across the Desert Southwest this weekend and reach Northern Mexico by Sunday, which will bring stronger upper level support to continue rain chances into Monday, especially along the Coast.

Model guidance has trended slower on the movement of this weekend's trough. Though moderate (40-60%) widespread rain chances are expected for Saturday, it now looks like the highest chances for rain will be Sunday (60-80%) and Monday (50-70%). The Weather Prediction Center has is keeping Deep South Texas under a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Saturday and Monday, and a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall for Sunday. Areas that receive heavier rainfall this weekend could see isolated flash flooding.

For overall rainfall totals, guidance has trended slightly downward from yesterday. It is most likely that most areas will receive between 1 and 3 inches between Saturday and Monday evening. Areas that receive heavier showers and thunderstorms could receive locally higher totals between 4 and 6+ inches. Because the convection is expected to be widespread but scattered, a few places could see very little rain as well. However, we do expect most places to receive some precipitation (as it will come in several waves)

Conditions are expected to somewhat dry up Tuesday, though areas close to to the coast could still see a lingering shower or two (a 20-30% chance) through Thursday. Temperatures are expected to be pleasant the remainder of the weekend into next week, with highs in the 70s and low 80s. Lows should get down into the upper 50s and lower 60s next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 544 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Generally VFR to MVFR ceilings are forecast through the TAF period. Another round of showers may develop early Saturday morning, with showers possible through the remainder of the period.

MARINE

Issued at 1223 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Overall favorable conditions continue today and tomorrow into tomorrow night. Winds are then expected to pick up Saturday, with SCEC conditions expected Saturday and Small Craft Advisory conditions expected Saturday night into Sunday morning as a trough moves through the area. Conditions will then improve again Monday into Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 82 71 83 72 / 70 40 40 50 HARLINGEN 81 68 81 69 / 60 30 40 30 MCALLEN 83 70 82 71 / 50 20 50 40 RIO GRANDE CITY 81 66 79 67 / 60 20 60 60 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 74 79 75 / 80 50 40 30 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 70 81 71 / 70 40 30 30

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.