textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1049 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

- Warm Friday before a cold front Saturday brings cooler conditions this weekend.

- Low to moderate (20-40%) rain chances Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1049 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

High temperatures Friday afternoon look to climb to the upper 70s to low 80s as southeasterly winds briefly return to the area. Meanwhile, an upper-level longwave trough looks to remain over the eastern half of the US through the middle of next week. A strong embedded shortwaves will likely drive a cold front south across the US, bringing a surges of colder air to Deep South Texas this weekend.

This cold front looks to arrive Saturday morning, likely keeping high temperatures in the 60s Saturday afternoon. Rain chances look to increase to around 30-40% across southeastern portions of the CWA as the front moves through. Behind the front there is some uncertainty in the forecast. Both the 18z and 0z runs of the NAM feature a greater western extent of the trough, driving surface high pressure south into Northern Mexico. This pattern would likely result in sustained CAA across Deep South Texas Saturday, and colder temperatures Saturday night and Sunday morning. This pattern would also likely support deeper northerly winds, limiting rain chances behind the front. With this setup, northwestern portions of the CWA could potentially see freezing temperatures around sunrise Sunday morning.

However, the bulk of the deterministic and probabilistic guidance tracks the surface low further east, along the Gulf Coast or into the Mississippi River Valley. This would result in low to mid level flow remaining southeasterly across Deep South Texas, and much briefer CAA Saturday. This would support slightly warmer temperatures Saturday night (mid-30s to mid 40s), and prolonged rain chances as an overrunning pattern would likely setup along the coast. In this scenario, light rain and drizzle could continue Saturday night into early Sun day morning.

In either scenario, freezing precipitation looks unlikely this weekend, with the colder scenario likely remaining dry, and temperatures likely remaining above freezing in the wetter scenario. Given the bulk of the guidance remaining on the warmer side, that scenario appears to be more likely, however the NAM does tend to handle cold fronts better this time of year, so that scenario is worth mentioning, and certainly shouldn't be ruled out.

High temperatures will likely stay in the 60s again Sunday afternoon, before winds shift back to the southeast Sunday evening, allowing temperatures to gradually warm through mid-week. Rain chances look to increase again Wednesday, as a weak shortwave moving across Northern Mexico increases forcing across Deep South Texas, while a second cold front looks to stall over Central Texas.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1049 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to continue through the TAF period. Light southeasterly winds will continue tonight, with speeds and gusts increasing through mid morning. Skies will likely remain clear to mostly clear through the period.

MARINE

Issued at 1049 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Generally favorable marine conditions are expected Friday, however a cold front arriving early Saturday morning will likely bring adverse to hazardous conditions for the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed Saturday and Sunday for the Gulf waters as strong northerly winds build seas to 8-9 feet. Wind speeds along the Laguna Madre will likely warrant a Small Craft Advisory or Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines Saturday.

Conditions look to improve Sunday night as light to moderate southeasterly winds return to the Lower Texas Coast. Generally favorable conditions will likely continue into into the middle of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 51 78 58 69 / 0 0 10 40 HARLINGEN 46 80 54 67 / 0 0 10 30 MCALLEN 49 82 55 67 / 0 0 10 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 46 81 50 65 / 0 0 0 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 58 74 62 68 / 0 0 10 50 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 51 78 57 69 / 0 0 10 40

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.