textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1105 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

- Rain-free conditions and well above normal temperatures are expected through the week.

- Fog development is likely along the coast Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1105 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Calm winds and clear to mostly clear skies will allow for efficient radiational cooling tonight, witch paired with increased moisture along the coast could support fog development east of I-69C early Monday morning. HiRes guidance is in fairly good agreement on the geographical extent of the fog, however there is some uncertainty in the density of the fog. At least some patchy fog is likely, though widespread dense fog may be possible, primarily across Cameron and Willacy Counties.

Any fog that develops overnight will likely dissipate by mid morning with sunny skies and light southeasterly winds returning by Monday afternoon. High temperatures look to climb to the mid 80s Monday afternoon.

An upper level ridge over the central US looks to break down by mid-week, with generally zonal flow extending across the southern US. By the end of the week, an upper level trough looks to move into the Western US, which could drive a cold front through Deep South Texas early next weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1105 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Calm winds and clear skies tonight will likely support good radiational cooling tonight, which paired with increased moisture along the coast will likely result in fog development at BRO and HRL. HiRes guidance is in good agreement on IFR to LIFR visibilities developing before sunrise. Drier air at MFE will likely hinder fog development and allow MFE to remain VFR overnight.

The fog will likely lift and dissipate shortly after sunrise, which may briefly result in IFR to MVFR ceilings before BRO and HRL return to VFR by mid-morning. VFR conditions are then forecast to continue through the remainder of the period.

MARINE

Issued at 1105 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Generally favorable marine conditions are forecast to continue through the period, though brief Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines may be needed Tuesday or Wednesday. Light to moderate southeasterly winds and slight seas will continue for the next couple days. Stronger differential heating mid-week will likely lead to tighter pressure gradients along the Lower Texas Coast Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday, which would likely lead to stronger winds and moderate seas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 57 81 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 52 83 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 57 87 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 52 87 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 62 72 64 75 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 56 77 60 81 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.