textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 607 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Key Messages:

- Near record to record-breaking heat is possible on Sunday with highs near 100 possible.

- A cold front Sunday night will likely bring hazardous marine conditions and fire weather concerns for Monday.

- Temperatures fall below average on Monday but warm back to above average by the middle or later part of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1044 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Sunny skies and southeasterly winds will lead to warmer temperatures this weekend, as afternoon high temperatures climb to the low to mid 90s Saturday and the upper 90s to around 100 on Sunday. A strong cold front looks to move through Deep South Texas Sunday night into Monday. There is a low chance for showers and thunderstorms to develop along the front, primarily along the coast and over the Gulf waters. Rain chances around 20% along the immediate coast will likely drop rapidly further inland. Strong northerly winds in the wake of the front will likely continue through much of the day Monday and wind advisories may be needed for the coastal counties.

Relative humidity values Monday afternoon will likely fall below 20% across most of the CWA, and may drop into the single digits across western portions of the CWA. Combined with the strong northerly winds, this will present an increased risk for critical fire weather conditions Monday afternoon. A fire weather watch will likely be needed for most of the CWA Monday.

Winds look to shift back to the southeast Tuesday as a gradual warming trend returns through the remainder of the forecast. High temperatures will likely return to the 80s Wednesday and the low 90s by Friday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 607 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR conditions should persist through the TAF period at all TAF sites. Southeasterly winds will start the morning light, but towards the end of the morning hours and early afternoon the winds are expected to become gusty, with gusts up to 25 knots possible. Winds should weaken during the evening, but then increase for the early morning hours as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a front. Low-level clouds are possible, but the skies should be mostly clear.

MARINE

Issued at 1044 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Favorable marine conditions will likely continue this weekend before a cold front Sunday night brings hazardous conditions into Monday. Strong northerly winds in the wake of the front will build higher seas and likely lead to hazardous conditions on the Gulf waters and Laguna Madre Sunday night and Monday. A Gale Watch will likely be needed for Monday.

Conditions look to improve by Tuesday as winds shift back to the southeast. Light to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas look to then continue through the remainder of the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1044 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

The passage of a strong cold front Sunday night into Monday morning will likely bring elevated to critical fire weather conditions Monday. Strong northerly winds Monday morning will likely continue into the afternoon before subsiding Monday evening. 20 foot winds may exceed 20 mph with gusts above 30 mph for several hours Monday. Meanwhile, relative humidity values are forecast to rapidly fall in the wake of the front, with much of the CWA forecast to drop below 30% by sunrise and reach the teens to single digits by Monday afternoon.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions could develop before sunrise, and continue through the afternoon Monday. A Fire weather watch will likely be needed.

Afternoon relative humidity values will likely remain below 30% across most of the area through the remainder of the forecast, however wind speeds look to generally remain below 15 mph, limiting fire weather concerns through the remainder of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 85 69 89 58 / 0 0 0 30 HARLINGEN 90 66 96 51 / 0 0 0 20 MCALLEN 93 69 100 54 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 95 66 101 53 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 71 81 58 / 0 0 0 30 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 85 67 90 55 / 0 0 0 30

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.