textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1207 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

- Overall seasonable temperatures and pleasant weather expected.

- Afternoon showers and thunderstorms could occur this afternoon and Wednesday near the Coast.

- Conditions should be dry for the late week into the early weekend, but low rain chances return Sunday and continue into Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Seasonable temperatures are expected this week throughout Deep South Texas, with highs staying in the upper 80s with a few places seeing lower 90s throughout the week. With upper-level ridging in place over northeast Mexico this week, weather should be overall fair for the region for most of Deep South Texas. There is Minor (level 1 of 4) Heat Risk throughout the week, as higher humidity will support slightly elevated heat indices.

However, there remains some weak coastal troughing along with some remnant Pacific moisture in the mid-levels. This, combined with onshore surface flow will support a moderate (30 to 50%) chance of afternoon showers today along the sea breeze east of I-69E. Tomorrow looks drier, but moderate (40-60%) rain chances spread further westward for Wednesday before conditions dry out for the remainder of the work-week and the early weekend. Low rain chances (20%) return Sunday for the Western Ranchlands and these low rain chances become more widespread Monday as a mid-level disturbance moves over the area.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all airports, excepting areas in the immediate vicinity of and showers that happen to move ashore over BRO or HRL. For this reason, a TEMPO has been added for the next few hours to coincide with peak shower activity. Winds should be light to moderate and north-northeasterly throughout the TAF period.

MARINE

Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Overall adverse conditions are expected due to moderate seas (especially over the Outer Gulf Waters) this week. This, in tandem with elevated wind speeds will cause intermittent SCEC conditions both in the Bay and the Gulf Waters throughout the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 73 87 74 87 / 10 0 20 60 HARLINGEN 70 88 70 88 / 10 0 10 50 MCALLEN 72 91 72 91 / 10 0 0 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 69 90 69 91 / 0 0 0 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 83 77 83 / 10 10 30 60 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 84 73 85 / 10 0 20 60

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.