textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1217 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Highest rain chances across the brush country today with drier conditions expected this weekend into early next week.

- Above normal temperatures are expected by this weekend, with a cold front expected to bring cooler temperatures late Tuesday.

- A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect until 7 AM Friday for the Lower Texas Coast beaches and may need to be extended into Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Abundant tropical moisture continues to work into Texas from the west, with showers just edging into Zapata County. Expect the heaviest activity to remain generally north of the CWA, with a few showers sneaking into Jim Hogg and Starr counties. An isolated sea breeze shower or two may develop across the RGV this afternoon. Above normal temperatures and drier conditions arrive by Friday, maintain a very warm Halloween weekend, and continue into early next week. A potent low pressure system swings through the Southern Plans Monday into Tuesday, kicking up a warm and breezy Monday before sending a cold front through Deep South Texas on Tuesday with cooler temperatures into Wednesday.

Persistent easterly flow across the Gulf and elevated astronomical tides continue to narrow beaches during high tide cycles into the weekend. Coastal Flood Statements may need to be extended into Sunday morning. Expect elevated rip currents into the weekend as well with the easterly long-period swell.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail through the TAF period with a southeasterly breeze this afternoon and again Friday afternoon and a low to medium chance of a passing shower or two mid-afternoon near MFE. Brief MVFR ceilings are possible in any heavier shower.

MARINE

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Persistent long-period easterly swell continues along the western Gulf waters with generally favorable marine conditions and low to moderate seas. As the pressure gradient strengthens early next week, winds across the bay may approach Small Craft Caution conditions. A cold front arrives on Tuesday with SCEC conditions possible into mid next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 71 88 73 89 / 0 10 0 0 HARLINGEN 68 89 70 90 / 0 10 0 10 MCALLEN 72 92 72 94 / 10 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 69 90 70 93 / 10 10 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 82 75 82 / 0 10 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 70 86 71 86 / 0 10 0 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.