textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 217 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Key Messages:

* Dry and breezy to windy southeasterly continue into Saturday, keeping temperatures slightly above average.

* Cold front and blustery conditions: A cold front Saturday night into Sunday morning will bring blustery conditions over land and water, with Small Craft Advisories likely needed for the coastal waters.

* Heavy rain and flood potential: Confidence is high (60-80 percent) for widespread beneficial rainfall (1-2", locally 3-4") over 48 hours, though a marginal risk for Excessive Rainfall is in effect for Sunday into Sunday night due to potential urban flooding and risk for isolated flash flooding.

* Sharp temperature drop: Temperatures will fall 15-20 degrees on Sunday morning, with pre-dawn 70s falling into the low to mid-60s by mid-day behind the front. * High rip current risk: A high risk of rip currents is expected to develop Saturday evening into overnight Saturday and prevail through early Monday due to increasing swell and strong frontal winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

The pressure gradient continues to tighten ahead of an approaching cold front, maintaining breezy to at times blustery southeasterly flow through Saturday. Confidence is high (60 to 80 percent) that a cold front will sweep through Deep South Texas during the overnight and pre-dawn hours of Sunday. This transition will lead to gusty northerly to north-northeasterly winds behind a building 1028mb surface high. The cold front will interact an anomalously moist air mass. Precipitable water values is progged to approach 1.8 to 2 inches, which is near maximum of SPC sounding climatology for Brownsville, TX. While the projected 1-2 inches, locally 3-4 inches rainfall will be largely beneficial due to the ongoing drought, the potential for rounds of heavy rainfall and urban flooding has prompted WPC to issue a Day 4 (Sunday 7 AM to Monday 7 AM) Marginal risk of excessive rainfall for the whole of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.

While severe weather is not expected with this cold front, thunderstorms are capable of producing gusty winds and small hail. Besides the rain, perhaps the most noticeable impact will be the sharp, non-diurnal temperature drop on Sunday morning. In a setup reminiscent of this past Easter Sunday, temperatures will fall 15-20 degrees behind the cold front. Winds shift from southeasterly to northerly to north-northeasterly gusting 30-35 mph at times. Overnight and pre- dawn highs in the mid to upper 70s will crash into the low and mid 60s by noon. For mid- April, where average highs are in the mid-80s away from the immediate coast, Sunday will be a raw and unseasonably cool day.

As for the coastal waters, hazardous conditions are expected. Current moderate risk for rip currents are expected to increase to high risk by Saturday evening, persisting into early Monday. There remains uncertainty as to how quickly drier and warmer conditions return but rain-free and seasonably warm conditions are expected by middle of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1258 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Partly to mostly cloudy skies and breezy to blustery southeasterly winds will produce MVFR to VFR conditions at all TAF sites through the forecast period. Expect sustained winds of 15-20 kt gusting 25-30 kt.

MARINE

Issued at 217 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions persist through Friday, with Small Craft Advisory (SCA) increasingly likely by Saturday as a strong cold front approaches from the north Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. There is also a low (10-20 percent) chance that there could be a period of borderline Gale force conditions (40 mph frequent gusts). Thunderstorms could accompany the cold front, with localized strong wind gusts. Winds shift from southeasterly to northeasterly, gusting over 30 kt at times. Seas build from 3-5 ft on Saturday into 6-8 ft on Sunday. Marine conditions look to improve by later Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 73 88 74 88 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 71 90 71 91 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 74 93 75 93 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 72 95 72 94 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 81 75 81 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 72 86 73 86 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.