textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1134 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

- Above average high temperatures continue Tuesday.

- A cold front pushes through Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing a medium (40-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region.

- More seasonable temperatures are forecast behind the front just in time for Thanksgiving, but won't stick around through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1134 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

A weak cold front over West Texas is forecast to stall along the northwestern portion of the CWA tonight. This stationary boundary will likely support light surface winds across the area Tuesday, with few other impacts. High temperatures are still forecast to climb back to the upper 80s to low 90s again Tuesday afternoon.

A stronger cold front is forecast push through Deep South Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday. Rain chances are forecast to increase to around 40-60% along the front, with the latest runs of HiRes models depicting a cluster of thunderstorms developing ahead of and along the front Tuesday night. CAPE values ahead of the front could increase to around 2500 J/kg, however limited wind shear and moderate lapse rates will likely limit the intensity of these storms, likely keeping them sub-severe.

Behind the front, stronger winds and more seasonable temperatures are forecast Wednesday. High temperatures look to range from the low 70s to low 80s Wednesday afternoon, with low temperatures Wednesday night in the 50s across most of the area. Some portions of the northern counties could drop into the upper 40s Wednesday night, and areas along the coast and the lower RGV could remain in the low 60s.

The seasonable temperatures are forecast to continue for Thanksgiving, with highs in the 70s to low 80s Thursday afternoon. Generally light winds and near-zero chances are forecast through the day Thursday.

Southeasterly winds are forecast to return Friday leading to slightly warmer temperatures heading into the weekend. High temperatures are expected to return to the mid-80s by Saturday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

VFR conditions are forecast to continue through the TAF period. Gusty southeasterly winds will continue this afternoon. Wind gusts will begin to subside this evening, with winds becoming light and variable Tuesday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 1134 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters until 3 PM this afternoon. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines will likely be needed after the Small Craft Advisory ends, through tonight. Favorable conditions are forecast to briefly return Tuesday, before winds and seas increase again Wednesday. Rain chances will increase to around 60% Tuesday night ahead of and along a cold front moving through the area. Behind the front, stronger northerly winds and higher seas will likely require additional Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines or small craft advisories Wednesday. Winds and seas may briefly subside for Thanksgiving, however stronger southeasterly winds will likely result in adverse conditions over the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 71 88 70 79 / 0 10 50 50 HARLINGEN 68 89 65 78 / 0 10 50 40 MCALLEN 71 91 68 78 / 0 10 60 40 RIO GRANDE CITY 66 90 64 76 / 0 20 60 40 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 83 73 78 / 10 10 50 50 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 87 68 78 / 0 10 50 40

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ451-454- 455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ130- 132-135-150-155-170-175.