textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1045 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

- Chances of rain gradually diminish through Wednesday night.

- A medium risk of rip currents continues through Tuesday afternoon.

- Cooler than average temperatures on Tuesday warm to near average by Thursday.

- The next chance of rain could arrive this weekend.

- Slightly adverse marine conditions on Thursday become adverse this weekend as a pressure gradient tightens.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1045 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Radar continues to reveal scattered to numerous light to locally moderate showers, mainly along/east of US-281, thanks to convergence associated with a weak low pressure system situated over the Lower RGV, well-above average moisture content and divergence aloft provided by a mid/upper level low over northwestern Texas. This activity could continue spreading west overnight as well as drop as much as 0.25 of inch, or a little more, of rain by Tuesday morning. To the south, subsidence associated with anticyclonic flow aloft is anticipated to move northeastward and gradually decrease shower activity from south to north through the next 24-36 hours; rain chances drop from a near region-wide medium to likely (40-80%) chance tonight to a low to medium (20-50%) chance across the Northern Ranchlands and coastal/island areas by Tuesday morning, further decreasing into Wednesday.

Following, dry conditions should resume by Thursday as ridging arrives over the Southern Plains ahead of a high pressure aloft building over the 4 Corners region, possibly inducing a weak cold front Wednesday night or Thursday morning, funneling drier air into the region. At this time, the latest GFS and ECMWF global deterministic runs suggest a rather robust shortwave trough arriving over southern CA and the northern Baja Peninsula on Friday, moving eastward and ejecting over the Southern Plains on Saturday, bringing the next chance of unsettled weather. This could be our next focus through the coming days with regards to the strength, location and timing of the trough's passage as well as the atmospheric and moisture support for possible storms and rain chances Saturday into Sunday or Monday.

Temperature-wise, overcast skies and light northerly winds are likely to result in another cool day on Tuesday, with highs reaching the low/mid 70s, possibly upper 60s in the Northern Ranchlands. A warming trend is anticipated through the middle of the week as clouds gradually clear, leading to more seasonable temperatures, in the low/mid 80s, by Thursday. Mostly cloudy skies from moist low-levels maintain above average overnight lows, in the 60s inland and low 70s along/near the coast though could drop into the 50/60s Thursday night behind a potential weak cold front.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

IFR ceilings are expected to continue at all TAF sites through the 06Z TAF cycle as high moisture content persists across the region. VCSH have been included in the prevailing conditions along with PROB30s into the pre-dawn hours due to the potential for brief periods of LIFR or VLIFR (ceilings as low as 100 ft) resulting from intermittent light rain. Mostly dry conditions should return by the morning hours when light and variable winds transition to a light NW or NNW breeze.

MARINE

Issued at 1045 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Slight to moderate (2-4 ft) seas and light to gentle, occasionally moderate, easterly to variable winds become northerly by Wednesday afternoon ahead of a cold front moving through, possibly late Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate (3-5 ft) behind the front are likely to lead to Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions Thursday morning/afternoon before becoming more favorable by Friday morning. However, SCEC headlines are likely and Small Craft Advisories are possible over the weekend as a pressure gradient tightens.

Meanwhile, rounds of medium to likely (as high as 40-70%) chances of rain continue into Wednesday afternoon before becoming mostly dry by Thursday evening. The next chance of unsettled weather could be over this upcoming weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 70 79 68 79 / 30 20 10 10 HARLINGEN 67 77 65 78 / 30 20 10 10 MCALLEN 67 77 67 80 / 50 10 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 62 75 63 79 / 60 20 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 72 76 71 76 / 60 30 20 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 68 78 66 78 / 40 30 10 20

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.