textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1046 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Key Messages:

- Adverse marine conditions across the Laguna Madre and Gulf Waters result in a Small Craft Advisory Friday from noon to midnight.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday night into Sunday, with heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning possible. More rain is possible Sunday through Monday.

- Above average temperatures through Saturday, dropping below normal Sunday into early next week. Temperatures begin to climb again Tuesday onward.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1046 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Through Saturday...Warm, dry, and breezy to windy conditions continue into this weekend. Above average high temperatures with 80s along the coast and 90s inland. Breezy to windy southeasterly gusts around 35mph will continue in the afternoons. Friday, wind gusts tiptoe around Wind Advisory criteria. A brief gust to 40 mph cannot be ruled out. These winds will continue to return Gulf moisture, allowing precipitable water values to climb near 2 inches - well beyond the 90th percentile of climatology.

Saturday night through next Thursday...A surface low over the central plains Friday will swing northeast towards the Great Lakes Saturday, pushing a cold front through Texas. This front will interact with the anomalously moist airmass and bring showers and thunderstorms. The front, spanning from northeast to southwest, will traverse southeast through the region, entering the Ranchlands Saturday evening/night and into the RGV overnight into Sunday. Ahead of and along the front, thunderstorms, some strong, may produce lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall. The severe threat is isolated given weak shear, but decent instability (CAPE 1500-2000 J/kg).

How soon the rain ends remains unclear. Recent guidance has suggested less of a linear component with showers, but a conglomerate of showers eventually bunching up along the tail of the front as the boundary takes on a more meridional pattern. Two scenarios are possible with this setup - a stalling, slow front over the CWA will allow for persistent rainfall, and depending on how early the boundary slides east, may bring showers through Monday. On the other hand, building high pressure behind the front can force the boundary out sooner, leaving isolated to scattered showers Sunday. By Tuesday, PoPs drop to 30% or less.

From Saturday night to Tuesday, most likely rainfall amounts are between 1.5 to 2.5 inches with locally higher amounts possible. There is a very low (less than 10%) chance of widespread rainfall amounts of 3 inches or greater. A primed atmosphere will allow for efficient rainfall rates of 1+ inch per hour. Training storms and locally heavy downpours may result in isolated totals exceeding 3 inches leading to flash flooding, particularly in low-lying and poor drainage areas. The Weather Prediction Center has placed all of Deep South Texas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall Saturday night and Sunday.

Temperatures drop below average behind the front with highs around 70 Monday. Temperatures gradually climb through the week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

VFR conditions this evening will degrade as low ceilings build overnight to MVFR. There is a low chance for all sites to see MVFR vsby reduction early Friday morning before sunrise, however, confidence is low due to gusty winds. Gusty southeasterly winds persist overnight around 20-25 kts, increasing again mid- morning Friday with gusts up to 35 kts possible. Clouds begin to dissipate mid-morning, returning to VFR.

MARINE

Issued at 1046 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

A moderate to fresh onshore breeze will maintain slight to moderate seas into this weekend. An enhanced pressure gradient will result in Small Craft Advisory conditions Friday afternoon and night, from noon to midnight. This weekend, a cold front will likely bring Small Craft Advisory conditions with rough seas Sunday into Monday. There is an increased chance of rain Saturday evening through Monday, with thunderstorms possible Saturday night and Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 88 73 88 73 / 0 0 0 30 HARLINGEN 91 70 91 70 / 0 0 0 20 MCALLEN 95 75 94 75 / 0 10 0 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 98 72 96 73 / 10 10 10 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 73 80 73 / 0 0 0 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 87 71 86 71 / 0 0 0 20

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon Friday to midnight CDT Friday night for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.