textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1141 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

- Day-to-day or near day-to-day chances for showers and thunderstorms remain on the table through next week.

- Heavy rainfall from showers and thunderstorms will be the primary threat; this could lead to nuisance flooding to flash flooding in the days ahead.

- Temperatures will be cooler than previous days (rain-cooled) and closer to normal levels through the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1141 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

A quasi-stationary, slowly southward advancing cool front located over Central Texas coupled with deep tropical pull from the Gulf and Pacific source regions, interacting with a nearby shortwave trough will continue to be our primary weather fixtures driving our unsettled weather pattern through the weekend and possibly into early next week. This unsettled weather pattern will feature rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms capable of producing torrential downpours with rainfall rates at times exceeding 0.50- 1.00+ inches/hr will continue through the weekend and possibly into the early parts of next week.

Through the overnight hours, the first round of showers and thunderstorms from earlier today have shifted into our western zones. Additional showers are beginning to develop over parts of the area. That said, isolated to scattered passing showers are possible through tonight in spots. During the day on Saturday, aided by surface heating, a renewed threat for more widespread showers and thunderstorms are possible across Deep South Texas with the aforementioned frontal system still to our north. Showers and storms will come in waves with the best timing being during the peak heating afternoon/evening hours. Sunday will feature a rinse and repeat of Saturday with rounds of showers and thunderstorms. However, the focus will be more focused over the coastal areas with the cool frontal boundary nearby. Currently, we have widespread categorical chances over the weekend.

Monday through Tuesday of next week, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible. Again, the focus of showers and storms will be concentrated over the coastal areas. For Monday, categorical chances are focused over the southeastern half of our CWA with lesser chances northwest.

Wednesday may feature a brief reprieve from the day-to-day chances for showers and thunderstorms. Thursday through Saturday, additional chances for showers and thunderstorms are possible as the aforementioned frontal system potentially lifts northwestward as a warm front. Right now, we have low-medium (20-40%) PoPs each day (Thursday-Saturday). Rainfall totals by Wednesday are expected to range between 1-3 inches with locally higher amounts. Once again, given how moist/tropical the airmass is with precipitable water ( PWAT) values ranging between 2-2.25 inches (2-2.5 STDEVS above normal), any shower or thunderstorm will be efficient rainfall producers capable of torrential downpours, which could lead to nuisance flooding and flash flooding.

Given the unsettled weather pattern (extensive cloud coverage and rain chances), temperatures will hold near normal levels for this time of year through the forecast period. High temperatures are projected to range in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Meanwhile, low temperatures are expected to range in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Through 06z Sunday....Off and on scattered showers and thunderstorms will be the theme through the 06z TAF period. Through the rest of tonight, mainly quiet weather conditions will prevail through the could be some VCSH around.

During the day on Saturday, additional round(s) of showers and thunderstorms are possible. Have Prob30 groups to reflect the potential for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. Any thunderstorms that move over a TAF site will have the capabilities of briefly reducing cigs/vsbys to MVFR-IFR levels due to the heavy rainfall. Otherwise, expect for mainly VFR conditions to prevail.

Light north-northeast winds 5-10 kts will decrease and trend towards light and variable to calm tonight. Winds will pick up out of the north-northeast on Saturday with speeds between 5-10 kts.

MARINE

Issued at 1141 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Outside of any showers and thunderstorms, moderate seas to adverse (mainly SCEC) conditions can be expected through the forecast period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 77 90 76 87 / 60 90 90 90 HARLINGEN 74 91 73 86 / 50 70 90 90 MCALLEN 77 92 76 86 / 60 60 90 80 RIO GRANDE CITY 74 91 73 86 / 80 60 80 80 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 87 79 85 / 60 90 100 90 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 89 76 87 / 60 90 90 90

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.