textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 522 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

- Low rain chances (15-25%) continue into Monday with higher rain chances (45-65%) Monday Night through Tuesday.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected through next week. - Persistent easterly swell will increase the rip current risk along the lower Texas coast and combine with elevated astronomical tides to narrow beaches during high tide cycles next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

A ridge of high pressure along the western Gulf gradually shifts further offshore and south, maintaining near to above normal temperatures, and bringing a more active pattern with increased tropical moisture from the Pacific to Deep South Texas through the end of October. A weak shortwave is expected to slide by today with a low chance of rain into the early afternoon. An upper level disturbance swings through Monday night through Tuesday, with the highest chance of rainfall through the forecast period, currently 45-65 percent, mainly along and east of US-281. Isolated to scattered sea breeze and streaming showers or convection are expected Thursday and Friday, drying out into Halloween.

Persistent easterly flow across the Gulf likely increases the threat of rip currents next week and may combine with increasing astronomical tides to narrow beaches during high tide cycles during the afternoon and evening hours.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 522 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Through 00z Monday....VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 00z TAF cycle.

Southeast winds 10-15 knots will decrease to 5-10 knots tonight. On Sunday, winds will once again pick up out of the southeast with speeds between 10-15 knots and gusts as high as 20 knots or so.

MARINE

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Easterly onshore flow and increasing swell are expected through next week along the lower Texas coast with afternoon winds occasionally approaching Small Craft Caution conditions. A higher chance of showers or thunderstorms arrives with an upper level disturbance Monday night through Tuesday. Unsettled weather continues through the remainder of the week, improving into Halloween.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 74 85 70 87 / 0 10 0 0 HARLINGEN 70 86 67 87 / 0 10 0 10 MCALLEN 73 88 70 90 / 0 20 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 71 88 68 90 / 10 10 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 80 73 80 / 0 10 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 72 83 68 83 / 0 10 0 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.