textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1054 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

- Dry conditions and near record heat are expected over the next 7 days along with heat indices of around 105-110 F, or warmer, and moderate to major heat risks (levels 2/4 and 3/4).

- A SPS is in effect for the inland portions of Cameron, Willacy and Kenedy counties from 12 PM to 7 PM Saturday as heat indices peak around 108-111 F.

- Additional SPSs and a potential heat advisory, or two, are possible each day.

- A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through Saturday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1054 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

A high pressure aloft over the northwestern Gulf regresses northwestward to the Plains and Rockies by the early part of next week, bringing scorching heat and dry conditions to deep south Texas over the next 7 days. Already, a SPS is in effect for the inland portions of Cameron, Willacy and Kenedy counties from 12 PM to 7 PM Saturday as afternoon heat indices range from around 108 to 111 F, or a degree or two warmer, along with moderate to major heat risks. Despite drier than average moisture content by Sunday, persistent southeasterly onshore flow, gusts decreasing from 25-30 mph to 20-25 mph by Monday, is likely to result in mainly moderate heat risk across the Northern Ranchlands and Rio Grande Plains while populated regions of the RGV continue to experience major heat risks, with heat indices of around 105-110 F or warmer. Additional SPSs' for heat are possible throughout the next 7 days and a heat advisory, or two, is not fully out of the question at this time.

As the high pressure aloft over the Rockies and Plains builds to around 494-497 dam, widespread low/mid 100s (hottest furthest west) are anticipated inland by Sunday, even nearing coastal areas, especially towards the end of next week as the high could sag further south. Although temperatures may only range to around 5 degrees F above average, highs could tie or break records.

A moderate risk of rip currents continues through Saturday afternoon.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Southeasterly winds of around 12-17 knots, gusting to 20-25 knots, are likely to continue through the next few hours, diminishing at KBRO and KHRL by late tonight, while KMFE remains elevated overnight. Southeasterly winds of similar magnitude, as currently, resume at all terminals by tomorrow afternoon. VFR conditions prevail.

MARINE

Issued at 1054 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Moderate to fresh southeasterly winds, moderate (3-5 ft) seas and periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are likely to become gentle to moderate southeasterly winds with slight to moderate (1-3 ft) seas by the middle of next week. Dry conditions are expected to continue.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 80 95 80 96 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 77 98 77 99 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 80 101 79 103 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 102 78 104 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 81 88 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 94 79 95 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.