textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 621 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

- There is a Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk through the forecast period.

* Gulf moisture and surface troughing is expected to arrive Friday, supporting low to moderate rain chances through at least Tuesday.

* There is a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents at area beaches through at least Wednesday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 930 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Mid-level ridging will maintain warmer and generally drier conditions across deep South Texas through this week. High temperatures in the mid to upper 90s with heat indices ranging from 100 to 110 degrees will maintain a Moderate Risk of heat related illness through the forecast period. While sufficient low-level moisture will remain in place (PWATs around 2"), rain chances will stay low (10% or less) through Thursday, with isolated coastal and sea breeze showers during the day possible.

An inverted trough over the Gulf late this week advects tropical moisture into deep S TX and supports an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity as early as Friday into early next week. Rain chances increase to low (10-20%) Friday along the coast and RGV, and generally low to moderate (20-40%) across the CWA for the remainder of the forecast, with highest chances across the region on Saturday (30-50%). There is uncertainty around timing of showers and thunderstorms, so continue to monitor the forecast for updates.

At local beaches, a moderate rip current risk continues through Wednesday. In the latter half of the week, hazardous beach conditions including increased rip current risk and coastal runup are possible as swell periods increase and tides increase with the approach of a new moon.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

MVFR to VFR will continue to prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours, with a TEMPO remaining in the current TAF issuance for convection.

MARINE

Issued at 930 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Moderate southeasterly flow and slight to moderate seas persist, with swell building through the end of the week. Intermittent SCEC is possible Thursday onwards each afternoon/evening with increasing flow. Rain chances are low - but an isolated shower can't be ruled out - through Thursday. Friday onwards, rain chances increase and seas build to 4-6 ft into the weekend. Elevated seas may necessitate Small Craft Advisory issuance this weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 93 81 93 81 / 10 10 0 0 HARLINGEN 93 78 93 78 / 10 10 0 0 MCALLEN 96 80 96 80 / 10 0 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 97 78 98 78 / 10 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 84 88 83 / 10 10 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 81 91 81 / 10 10 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.