textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1203 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

* Gusty winds and elevated fire weather conditions are in place across inland Deep South Texas today. Gustier winds and additional fire weather concerns return tomorrow, likely through Thursday.

* Rain-free conditions and above average temperatures continue - heat peaks this Thursday, nearing records.

* Hazardous marine/coastal conditions develop this evening and last through Thursday before improving late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1203 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Temperatures remain above average with primarily rain-free conditions under a mostly benign synoptic pattern. Dry air will dominate, with fire weather concerns remaining the main hazard for much of the forecast period. There is a Fire Danger Statement in effect today for most of inland deep South Texas excluding Zapata county. More information can be found in the Fire Weather discussion below.

Surface high pressure over the Gulf will slide east as an approaching surface low with a dry front approaches deep South Texas from the north through midweek. This increase in our pressure gradient along the coast, along with mass evacuation from a LLJ entrance region over NE TX/LA, is bringing gusty winds today through Thursday, with gustiest conditions expected Wednesday. Gusts around 15-20 mph tonight persist region-wide. Areas east of US-281 will see the highest wind speeds on Wednesday; southerly winds up to 25 mph, with gusts around 30-35 mph. Forecast guidance suggests there is a chance eastern portions of the CWA may reach Wind Advisory criteria during the day tomorrow, however, confidence is low for timing. Thursday, southerly winds decrease slightly, but remain gusty up to 30 mph.

On Thursday, above average temperatures are expected to peak with highs in the upper 90s west of US-281 (low-mid 90s elsewhere) - near record breaking for some of our climate sites. For the remainder of the forecast, highs around 90 and lows around 60 persist.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Gusty southerly winds will be the greatest concern through the 18Z TAF cycle. Through the rest of today, winds gusting around 30 kts will lessen slightly overnight before increasing again Wednesday morning, likely even gustier than today (around 35 kts).

MARINE

Issued at 1203 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

A tightening pressure gradient ahead of an approaching front will bring strong southerly winds tonight through Wednesday night, and build seas 5 to 7 feet. A Small Craft Advisory will go into effect tonight at 9 PM as winds increase, lasting through Wednesday and Wednesday night. Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines will likely be needed through Thursday. Friday, winds shift north-northeast following frontal passage. Gentle to moderate onshore winds return for the weekend as seas decrease to slight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1203 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for all inland deep South Texas excluding Zapata and coastal/island counties until 6 PM today. A Fire Weather Watch is in place from 12 PM to 6 PM Wednesday for inland deep South Texas excluding coastal/island counties.

Wednesday, lower minimum Relative Humidities and gustier conditions are expected. Primarily east of US- 281, southerly 20 foot winds of 15 kts or greater, with gusts around 30+ kts are forecast. Minimum relative humidities in the upper teens to 20s percent are expected west of US-281, and in the 30s-40s percent east of US-281. Holding off on issuing a Red Flag Warning at this time as minimum RH and gustiest winds aren't perfectly aligned, but with the ongoing drought conditions and cured fuels, any fire that starts has potential to spread quickly.

Dry, gusty conditions continue through the latter half of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 77 63 83 67 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 79 58 87 62 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 82 60 92 65 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 82 55 94 59 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 72 66 76 68 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 61 83 64 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk from 6 PM CST this evening through Wednesday afternoon for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...None.