textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1212 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

* Overall warm and dry conditions expected through the weekend into early next week.

* There will be low to moderate (30 to 60%) chances of isolated showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, and low chances (20 to 30%) on Thursday and Friday.

* Moderate Risk of life-threatening rip currents at area beaches tonight and tomorrow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

An Omega blocking pattern is expected to set up over the CONUS for the next few weeks, potentially through mid-June. This type of pattern typically brings subsidence and high pressure to the Central Southern Plains, including Deep South Texas, with mid to upper level ridging sandwiched between two systems of low pressure (usually, one on the East Coast and one on the West Coast). We can expect overall warm and dry conditions while this pattern remains dominant.

However, some coastal surface troughing is expected to develop by mid-week next week. This will be accompanied by some minor shortwave activity south of a weak upper-level Pacific trough that is expected to weaken and possibly dissipate over the Central Plains as the Omega Block pattern sets up. The surface troughing and shortwave energy should create enough instability to support a low to moderate (30 to 60%) chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two over Deep South Texas Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, and a low chance (20 to 30%) on Thursday and Friday.

Temperatures should remain warm and close to seasonal levels, with highs in the low to mid 90s through the weekend. Once the surface troughing sets up by Tuesday, cloud cover should increase which will keep daytime highs a bit cooler in the upper 80s and lower 90s. The air is also supposed to be humid with easterly/southeasterly flow, which will support Minor (level 1 of 4) to Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk.

A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents continues at area beaches tonight and tomorrow.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

VFR conditions with few to scattered clouds expected at all airports for the remainder of the afternoon into the evening. Overnight some brief ground fog could develop, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF at this time. Winds will be southeasterly and light to moderate.

MARINE

Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Favorable conditions are expected through the weekend into next week with light to moderate southeasterly winds and low (2 to 4 feet) wave heights. A surface trough is expected to develop early next week which could bring low to moderate (20-40%) rain chances offshore starting on Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 78 93 79 92 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 74 94 75 93 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 77 97 78 96 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 75 97 76 96 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 86 81 86 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 91 79 90 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.