textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1026 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
* There is an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms developing Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon, continuing into Wednesday night.
* Above normal temperatures are expected through the weekend, with a briefly cooler day on Friday behind a cold front.
* Life-threatening rip currents are expected along the beaches of the lower Texas coast on Tuesday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1026 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
A shortwave trough swings across northeastern Mexico into late week, increasing moisture and instability across Deep South Texas mid to late week. The subtropical ridge returns this weekend with drier air. At the surface, the frontal boundary gradually lifts north into the CWA through Wednesday with a coastal trough of low pressure, increasing the chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday night. The front eventually pulls southeast into late Thursday or early Friday with a brief northerly wind shift.
Expect a gradual warming trend from slightly above normal to well above normal temperatures through the forecast period, with a briefly cooler but comfortable day on Friday. A moderate risk of rip currents continues Tuesday and may persist through the week due to a long period swell across the western Gulf.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1026 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
VFR to MVFR conditions are expected to persist tonight before MVFR ceilings prevail on Tuesday as winds turn southeasterly and moisture increases across the Rio Grande Valley.
MARINE
Issued at 1026 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025
Marine conditions generally improve through the forecast period, with an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday and a brief northerly wind shift behind a front on Friday. Expect southeasterly onshore flow through most of the period aside from Friday.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 55 77 66 78 / 0 10 50 70 HARLINGEN 51 76 63 78 / 0 10 50 70 MCALLEN 54 75 66 79 / 0 0 40 60 RIO GRANDE CITY 50 71 61 77 / 0 10 30 40 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 60 73 68 74 / 0 10 50 80 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 55 75 65 76 / 0 10 50 70
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None. GM...None.
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