textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026
Hot, mainly dry, and at times breezy conditions will continue to be the main weather storyline through early next week as an anomalously strong and elongated 591-594 dam heat ridge complex remains anchored over the southern U.S. This persistent and dominant feature in our pattern will continue to foster record to near record-breaking heat over the next several days (see CLIMATE SECTION for more details). High temperatures are progged to continue to climb into the upper 90s to mid 100s through the forecast period with overnight lows in the 70s to lower 80s. Peak heat indices ranging between 105-115F degrees will continue to warrant day-to-day or near daily Special Weather Statements (SPSs) and/or Heat Advisories through this week. The combination of very hot temperatures during the day and very warm temperatures at night providing little relief, widespread Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk to increasing areas of Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk will be the case through this week (at least).
Aided by persistent southeasterly winds, low-medium (20-40%) chances for showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze is possible through Thursday as Deep South Texas sits on the on the southern periphery of the aforementioned heat ridge. The best chances for any showers and storms will be along and east of IH- 69C/US-281.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026
Hot, mainly dry, and at times breezy conditions will continue to be the main weather storyline through early next week as an anomalously strong and elongated 591-594 dam heat ridge complex remains anchored over the southern U.S. This persistent and dominant feature in our pattern will continue to foster record to near record-breaking heat over the next several days (see CLIMATE SECTION for more details). High temperatures are progged to continue to climb into the upper 90s to mid 100s through the forecast period with overnight lows in the 70s to lower 80s. Peak heat indices ranging between 105-115F degrees will continue to warrant day-to-day or near daily Special Weather Statements (SPSs) and/or Heat Advisories through this week. The combination of very hot temperatures during the day and very warm temperatures at night providing little relief, widespread Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk to increasing areas of Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk will be the case through this week (at least).
Aided by persistent southeasterly winds, low-medium (20-40%) chances for showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze is possible through Thursday as Deep South Texas sits on the on the southern periphery of the aforementioned heat ridge. The best chances for any showers and storms will be along and east of IH- 69C/US-281.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon along the sea breeze, which may result in MVFR or IFR conditions if any convection moves over an airfield. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast, with winds increasing out of the southeast this afternoon.
MARINE
Issued at 941 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026
Outside of any showers or thunderstorms, marine conditions will remain favorable through this week with low to moderate winds and low seas (i.e. wave heights between 1-3 feet). Moderate seas are possible over the weekend into early next week.
CLIMATE
Issued at 941 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026
Record to near record-breaking temperatures are possible through Saturday, courtesy of a persistent and strong 591-594 dam heat ridge complex established over the southern U.S. Below is a list of the record highs from Wednesday September 9th to Saturday September 12th.
Wednesday September 9, 2026:
Brownsville: 102F in 1893 Harlingen: 102F in 2023 McAllen: 103F in 2023 & 2016
Thursday September 10, 2026:
Brownsville: 102F in 2023 Harlingen: 102F in 2023 McAllen: 105F in 2023
Friday September 11, 2026:
Brownsville: 100F in 1900 & 1893 Harlingen: 103F in 1937 McAllen: 103F in 2023
Saturday September 12, 2026:
Brownsville: 100F in 1919 Harlingen: 101F in 2011 & 1930 McAllen: 103F in 1987
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 96 80 98 81 / 30 0 20 0 HARLINGEN 99 75 101 77 / 30 0 20 0 MCALLEN 102 80 103 81 / 30 0 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 103 78 104 79 / 10 10 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 82 90 82 / 20 10 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 95 78 96 79 / 20 10 20 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None. GM...None.
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