textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 502 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Key Messages

- Spring-like conditions will continue through the end of the week across Deep South Texas, with well above normal temperatures, breezy southerly winds, and rain-free conditions.

- After a prolonged period of rain-free conditions, low to medium rain chances return this weekend and continue into early next week across portions of the region.

- Adverse marine and beach conditions will continue through the end of the week along the lower Texas beaches and across the Gulf waters.

- The combination of breezy winds, warm temperatures, and cured fuels will maintain an elevated wildfire potential each day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1205 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

After a mild and cloudy start to the day, another warm afternoon is in store across Deep South Texas with afternoon highs ranging from the mid to upper 80s along the immediate coast to low 90s further inland. Meanwhile, a progressive upper level pattern will maintain a tight pressure gradient across the region through the end of the week. Expect breezy southerly to southeasterly winds around 15-25 MPH and gusts up to 35 MPH through late this evening, with wind speeds decreasing somewhat overnight as the pressure gradient slackens. Another round of stratus clouds will blanket the region overnight as Gulf moisture is transported via an enhanced low level jet, but cloud cover should scatter by mid to late morning tomorrow. Thursday and Friday will feature very similar spring-like conditions - mild and cloudy starts, warm and breezy afternoons. Temperatures are around 10 degrees above normal for early March, closer to April/May standards.

While above normal temperatures are expected to continue into next week, a change in the upper level pattern will at least open a window for portions of the region for some very much welcomed rain chances beginning this weekend. An upper level trough, currently centered over the western US, looks to develop into a closed upper level low over the Baja Peninsula region by this weekend. In combination with high moisture content and diurnal instability, low to medium (20-50%) rain chances return this weekend and low (20-30%) rain chances continue into early next week. Overall rainfall totals remain fairly low ranging from 0.10-0.75 inches at this time. Probabilistic guidance indicates there is a low chance (10% or less) of amounts upwards of 1-1.5 inches... so stay tuned for updates to the forecast!

Otherwise, a moderate risk of rip currents will likely continue through the end of the week along the Lower Texas beaches.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 502 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Gusty southeasterly winds (around 15-20 knots, gusting up to 30 knots) and VFR conditions continue over the next few hours into sunset. Following, MVFR ceilings are expected to develop at all sites, possibly by 03Z, with winds southeasterly winds decreasing to 10-15 knots, gusting to 25 knots into the early nighttime hours. Winds weaken further across the region and ceilings may lower to IFR at KHRL and KBRO near sunrise Thursday morning. Following, VFR conditions return rather quickly as southeast winds pick back up to similar magnitudes (15-20 knots, gusting to around 30 knots, or higher) by mid-morning.

MARINE

Issued at 1205 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

An enhanced pressure gradient will result in moderate winds and low to moderate seas across the Gulf waters and Laguna Madre through the end of the week. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will be realized each day by mid to late morning with wind gusts around or just below 20 knots. Brief Small Craft Advisory conditions cannot be ruled out across the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters each afternoon through Friday. Conditions should improve slightly heading into the weekend, but seas will remain elevate at around 3-5 feet. Low to medium rain chances return this weekend and into early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 71 85 71 86 / 10 0 10 10 HARLINGEN 68 88 68 90 / 10 0 10 10 MCALLEN 73 92 73 94 / 10 0 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 70 93 70 96 / 10 0 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 71 78 71 79 / 0 0 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 68 84 69 86 / 0 0 0 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.