textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1245 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- Mainly dry conditions expected through midweek. Rain chances increase Friday into the weekend as a cold front approaches.

- Cold front could bring breezy conditions and coastal hazards late week in its wake.

- There is a moderate to major (level 2 to 3/4) risk of heat- related illness through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1032 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Warm, mostly dry conditions are expected through Thursday, with only isolated sea breeze showers or thunderstorms possible. Temperatures remain above normal with highs in the mid-upper 90s and heat indices reaching 106-111 today before dropping to the upper 90s-low 100s tomorrow.

CWA-wide chances of showers and thunderstorms increase to low/moderate (30-60%) Friday as a cold front moves through Deep South Texas. Elevated rain chances persist into the weekend along the coast as the front moves offshore and coastal troughing sets up. Rainfall amounts through Sunday are expected to be between 0.1 to 1.5 inches, with highest amounts along the coast. Breezy northerly winds behind the front Friday night into Saturday may bring elevated surf, an increased risk of rip currents, coastal flooding, and the possibility of a Wind Advisory in the RGV and coastal counties. Cooler temperatures are expected behind the front this weekend, with highs in the 70s-80s. This is still a few days out, so expect adjustments to the forecast in the coming days.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to continue through the period. Winds are forecast to increase out of the southeast late this morning, with gusts increasing through the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1032 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Moderate onshore to southerly flow and moderate seas 3-4 ft will continue through Thursday. Rain chances stay low (generally 15% or less), with greatest chances during the afternoon. This afternoon, caution conditions are possible on the Laguna Madre with gusty winds. An approaching cold front Friday will increase rain chances and deteriorate conditions, with Small Craft Advisories likely and Gale Warnings possible Friday into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 92 76 90 75 / 10 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 94 73 93 72 / 10 0 0 0 MCALLEN 97 77 96 75 / 10 0 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 98 75 95 72 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 79 86 79 / 10 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 76 88 74 / 10 0 0 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.