textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1025 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

* Mainly dry and tranquil weather pattern with seasonable temperatures are expected to persist through next Tuesday.

* A cool front is expected to sweep through the region Wednesday night into Thursday and could bring adverse to hazardous marine conditions.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1025 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

A mainly dry and tranquil weather pattern is expected across Deep South Texas through the forecast period or through next Tuesday. At least one cool front is on track to sweep through the region mid week.

Through tonight, any lingering showers, which have mainly been confined to the Northern Ranchlands and areas west of IH-69E, will gradually come to an end from the west to east.

Forecast models and ensembles continue to depict a major large- scale weather pattern change taking place midweek this week. The 500 mb pattern is expected to become highly amplified and will feature a dipole type pattern (warm/hot West U.S. vs. a cool/cold East U.S. alignment) with anomalously strong ridging over the eastern Pacific Ocean into western Canada/U.S. and anomalously strong troughing downstream over central and eastern U.S. This pattern coincides with a negative Eastern Pacific Oscillation/-EPO, a positive Pacific North America Oscillation/+PNA, and a negative Arctic Oscillation/-AO as models suggest. That said, at least one cool/cold front is expected to sweep through the region mid week this week.

Ahead of this cool front and still under a northwest flow regime at the sfc and aloft, Tuesday will feature seasonable temperatures with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Wednesday will be one of the warmer days of the forecast period thanks to a bit more sunlight or incoming solar radiation compared to prior days. High temps will top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s across Deep South Texas. The dry continental cool front is expected to pass through the region Wednesday night into Thursday. This will result in slightly cooler temperatures on Thursday with highs returning to near seasonable levels (upper 60s to lower 70s).

High temperatures rebound on Friday as a return flow develops out of the south. High temperatures are expected to top out in the mid 70s to near 80F degrees along the RGV. There's a bit more uncertainty in whether or not a second cool/cold front makes its way down to the valley later this week. That said, temperatures have trended warmer over the past 24 hours acknowledging the fact that the second front may not make it's way all the way down to the valley. We'll continue to monitor trends in the days ahead. That said, high temperatures Saturday through Tuesday will top out in the 70s. Overnight low temperatures through much of the forecast period will be in the 40s and 50s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1025 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Through 06z Wednesday....VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 06z TAF period under a mostly cloudy (OVC-BKN) stratus deck.

Winds will be out of the north with speeds between 5-10 kts. Otherwise, winds will be light and variable to calm.

MARINE

Issued at 1025 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Marine conditions will be favorable for much of the forecast period with light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas. Wednesday night into Thursday, adverse to hazardous marine conditions are expected to develop and a Small Craft Advisory may be needed in response to a cool/cold front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 54 69 52 78 / 10 10 10 0 HARLINGEN 49 67 49 78 / 10 10 10 0 MCALLEN 52 68 51 80 / 20 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 48 66 45 78 / 30 10 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 61 67 59 74 / 10 10 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 54 69 51 78 / 10 10 10 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM CST Tuesday for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...None.