textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1120 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

- A cold front is expected tonight which will increase marine and beach hazards, and could possibly elevate fire conditions in the drier Northwest Ranchlands Saturday afternoon. There is a 30-50% chance of showers east of I-69C tomorrow.

- The coldest temperatures of the season are expected tomorrow night. Temperatures could approach and even briefly hit freezing in the Northern Ranchlands early Sunday morning.

- Another frontal system may approach the area mid-next week, but there is uncertainty. If this front stalls, we could have elevated rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1120 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

A large trough is positioned over the Central US and is expected to dig Southeast into the weekend, bringing a cold front overnight to Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. This frontal passage is expected to bring cooler weather to the region, along with a low to medium (30-50%) chance of precipitation, mainly for areas east of I- 69C, with the highest chances being close to the coast. There is also a small window for potential increased fire activity for the Northwest Ranchlands, as humidities are expected to drop below 20 percent with slightly elevated winds. See Fire Weather Discussion for more details.

High temperatures tomorrow are expected to be in the upper 50s/lower 60s following the frontal passage with northeasterly winds. These winds are expected to drop off tomorrow night and become more calm, particularly for the Northern and Western Ranchlands. Though skies are expected to be mostly cloudy to cloudy tomorrow following the frontal passage, they are expected to begin clearing tomorrow night, which will increase radiational cooling overnight Saturday into Sunday. These calmer winds, clearer skies, and cooler temperatures ushered in by the cold front will contribute to the coldest low temperatures of the season thus far Saturday night into Sunday (see Climate discussion).

The Lower Rio Grande Valley will see lows in the lower 40s (as cloud cover will hang on a bit longer over the Valley and winds will be a little more elevated), but the Upper and Western Ranchlands will see temperatures in the low the mid-30s, with a low potential for a light freeze in some isolated areas. Lower-lying areas where cold air tends to pool will be the most vulnerable if temperatures do indeed approach freezing. These colder low temperatures in the 30s and 40s are expected to hang around a few more nights before warming on Tuesday.

Temperatures are expected to warm into the 70s for Monday, and then another frontal system is expected to approach the area on Tuesday which could lower temperatures a few degrees due to increased cloud cover, but there is some uncertainty as to how this system will impact our area. Guidance is suggesting that this second front could stall over Deep South Texas, bringing an increased chance (20-40%) of beneficial rain to the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Guidance is also teasing at elevated QPF values around this time too, which will be something to keep an eye on. At this time, however, there is too much uncertainty to provide a clear picture of how much rain we could receive, and which areas could receive the most. Assuming this front does indeed stall in our region, it is expected to lift north of the area by Thursday which will cause temperatures to warm into the lower 80s for Thursday and Friday. Low temperatures are expected to also warm into the upper 50s/lower 60s by Thursday as well.

There is a moderate risk of life threatening Rip Currents at area beaches the rest of the day today, and then again tomorrow. There could also be some elevated surf tomorrow evening into tomorrow night following the frontal passage, with High Surf Advisories possible.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected at all airports with a wind shift expected overnight (around 10-11z) from a southeasterly to a north-northeasterly direction following a frontal passage. Winds could become gusty by 14z and increased cloud cover is expected. There is also a low possibility of showers late in the TAF period but confidence was too low to include in this TAF package.

MARINE

Issued at 1120 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect tomorrow morning for both the Bay and the Gulf Waters from 11z through 15Z Sunday due to elevated winds and wave heights associated with the frontal passage. Elevated winds are expected to begin in the Northern Gulf waters first and spread southward throughout the early morning hours, deteriorating conditions rapidly as the winds quickly pick up. This will be important for boaters to keep in mind in the Lower Gulf Waters and Laguna Madre as conditions might still seem deceptively okay before the higher winds arrive. Elevated winds and wave heights are expected to continue through Saturday and Saturday night before they begin to improve on Sunday.

Sunday night and Monday should be favorable before a second frontal boundary approaches the area on Tuesday. This front may stall, which makes the winds and wave heights uncertain a this time, but SCEC conditions are certainly possible Tuesday into Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1120 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

There is a brief window (between around 21z to 02z) of potential elevated fire danger for the Northwestern Ranchland counties (Zapata, Jim Hogg, and Brooks counties) Saturday afternoon/early evening as relative humidities are expected to drop below 20% at a time when winds could still be slightly elevated (10-15 knots) due to the frontal passage. Given that this area is already in a state of D3 drought with very dry fuels, anything that catches in such low humidity is expected to burn rapidly. A Fire Danger Statement may be needed depending on how the winds trend as additional guidance come in.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1120 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Winter 2025/2026 has been relatively non-descript thus far when it comes to cold temperatures. There have been a number of days when minimum temperatures fell 5 to 10 degrees below average, but for the most part that has meant upper 30s to lower 40s in the ranchlands and in the 40s across the lower/mid Valley. Sunday morning will bring the temperatures to or below the coldest of the season, so far for many in the region.Below is the forecast low temperature, and the coldest low temperature so far to date since December 1.

Location Jan. 18 Forecast Coldest So Far (Date)

Brownsville 47 46 (Dec. 31) Harlingen/Valley 40 40 (Jan. 15) McAllen/Miller 42 46 (Dec. 7 and Jan. 15) Edinburg (City) 42 45 (Jan. 15 latest) Weslaco 42 44 (Dec. 9) Raymondville 40 40 (Dec. 31 Rio Grande City 37 37 (Jan. 15) McCook 38 42 (Dec. 31)

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 58 69 48 65 / 10 60 30 10 HARLINGEN 54 67 42 64 / 0 40 20 0 MCALLEN 55 67 43 66 / 0 30 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 50 65 38 66 / 0 20 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 62 68 55 62 / 10 60 40 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 57 69 48 64 / 10 50 30 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.