textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 628 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

- Cooler and wetter conditions are expected into early next week due to a frontal passage and a multi-day rainfall event.

- Another round of thunderstorms and heavy rain is likely Friday afternoon.

- Isolated flash flooding will remain a concern through the weekend, especially in areas that have already received several inches of rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1102 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Heavy rainfall with pockets of flash flooding will continue to be a concern through the weekend and into early next week. The latest radar estimates depict widespread rainfall accumulations of 1-3 inches across the central portion of the CWA, with estimates of 6-8 inches over southeastern Starr county today. These portions of Starr, Hidalgo, Brooks, Jim Hogg, and Kenedy counties will likely be more susceptible to flooding over the coming days.

A cluster of showers, thunderstorms, and light to moderate stratiform rain across most of Deep South Texas this evening will likely linger overnight, gradually transitioning to mostly stratiform rain through the early morning. The bulk of the convective models depict most of the activity diminishing by mid morning, before another round of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms develop Friday afternoon.

The heaviest rainfall Friday will most likely along and west of I-69C/US-281, with widespread accumulations of 1-2 inches forecast, with isolated amounts up to 4-6 inches possible.

A cold front is forecast to move through the area Friday evening into early Saturday morning. In the wake of the front, an overrunning pattern looks to set up as southeasterly mid-level flow continues to advect warm moist air from the Gulf into the region. This will likely support widespread stratiform rain, with generally light to moderate rainfall across much of the area, though some heavier bands may develop, especially along the coast. Widespread daily rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches are forecast Saturday and Sunday.

Rain chances across the area begin to decrease early next week, however elevated rain chances will likely persist along the coast, with the potential for coastal troughing or a coastal low to develop off shore.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Generally VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. The inclusion of precipitation in the TAFs is a combination of current radar trends and HRRR model guidance.

MARINE

Issued at 1102 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Light to moderate winds and moderate seas are forecast through the weekend, with winds and seas likely increasing early next week. Light southeasterly winds are forecast to shift northeasterly Friday evening as a cold front moves through the area. Rain chances remain elevated through early next week, with showers and thunderstorms likely through the weekend.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines or Small Craft Advisories may be needed early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 94 78 91 76 / 70 70 90 80 HARLINGEN 95 73 92 72 / 70 60 80 80 MCALLEN 94 77 92 76 / 80 50 80 90 RIO GRANDE CITY 90 74 90 73 / 80 70 60 90 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 81 87 80 / 50 70 80 90 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 77 90 75 / 60 70 80 90

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.