textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 119 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

* Rain chances continue the remainder of today, before decreasing overnight.

* Flood risk has also decreased, but an isolated flash flood or two cannot be ruled out (especially in areas that already received large rainfall totals).

* Heat Risk will be a concern starting tomorrow, with the worst days being Thursday and Friday. Heat Advisories will likely be needed these days, with Extreme Heat Warnings possible Thursday and Friday.

* Beach hazards, such as rip currents and high surf, may become a concern by the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Rain chances will continue for the remainder of the day, as an area of low pressure remains over Deep South Texas. However, the heaviest rain seems to have moved to the north-northeast and just offshore. Most areas of Deep South Texas received beneficial rainfall amounts and are now on the dryer side of the low, so the flooding risk has diminished considerably. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms are still possible this afternoon into the evening, as the atmosphere remains moist and unsettled with low pressure still in the vicinity. Any heavier showers or thunderstorms today could produce a quick 1 to 2 inches, which won't be a problem for most areas but could pose a concern for some of the heavier-hit areas that already did receive flash flooding yesterday.

The low pressure system is expected to move offshore late today into tomorrow. Once it moves over the Gulf, the Hurricane Center is forecasting a 60% chance it could briefly develop into a tropical system impacting the Upper Texas/Louisiana Coast. Since the system will be moving to the northeast away from our area, the only potential hazards Deep South Texas is anticipating from this system are potential coastal hazards such as Rip Currents and High Surf. Right now, there is a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at area beaches through tomorrow. Depending on the behavior of this low pressure system once it moves offshore, we could see that risk increase, along with other beach hazards.

Once the rain moves offshore tonight into tomorrow, conditions should be mostly rain-free over the next few days. There is a low (20 to 30%) chance the Western Ranchlands could see some Sierra Madre convection on Saturday, and possibly a little bit of sea breeze activity on Tuesday (chances are less then 20%), but other than that, rain-free conditions should persist.

Heat Risk will become more of a concern staring tomorrow, with most areas experiencing Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk. Temperatures should be overall seasonal, but elevated humidity will make it feel a lot warmer outside than it actually is. Thursday is looking to be the biggest concern for Heat Risk as heat indices could climb well over 20 degrees above the actual temperature, with Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk expected. Heat Advisories will likely be needed on Thursday and possibly Friday as well, Dewpoints could climb into the lower 80s on these days. If that happens, Extreme Heat Warnings are also possible as well. Moderate to Major Heat Risk is expected into the weekend too.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

MVFR conditions are expected at all airports with the potential for rain and showers until late this afternoon. Ceilings will lift to VFR by this evening between 22 and 00z and conditions will continue drying out. Winds should be light to moderate and southeasterly.

MARINE

Issued at 119 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Conditions are favorable for waterspouts in today's offshore convection with very high moisture and lower winds. Some signatures have already been observed on radar earlier today. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will come possible starting tomorrow into tomorrow night with Small Craft Advisories possible starting Thursday due to elevated wave heights. Conditions should slightly improve for the weekend but intermittent SCEC conditions are possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 84 77 94 83 / 90 30 10 0 HARLINGEN 83 74 93 79 / 90 20 0 0 MCALLEN 84 77 94 81 / 90 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 85 74 95 78 / 90 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 85 79 90 84 / 90 40 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 84 76 93 81 / 100 30 10 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for TXZ248>255-351-353>355- 451-454-455.

GM...None.