textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1233 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Key Messages:

* Life-threatening rip currents are expected through at least Sunday.

* Cooler temperatures prevail into Monday morning with a quick warmup Tuesday into Wednesday, elevating Heat Risk.

* A frontal boundary expected late week brings the next round of showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1039 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

High pressure continues to build across the Gulf into early this week as the subtropical ridge nudges further north and low pressure settles into the Southern Plains. This will set up a roller coaster week of temperatures in early May across Deep South Texas. Expect fairly comfortable conditions Sunday, a little warmer with a breeze on Monday, then breezy to windy and hot for Tuesday and Wednesday. Record or near-record highs are expected Wednesday afternoon. A stalling frontal boundary and surface low bringing more seasonal temperatures and chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night through Saturday, with some potentially beneficial rainfall.

As for hazards, life-threatening rip currents continue into Sunday, with minor coastal flooding possible near high tide Sunday morning. A Coastal Flood Statement may be needed if observations exceed current guidance late tonight. Our attention then shifts towards heat for Tuesday and Wednesday, with Moderate (level 2 of 4) to Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk expected. By Wednesday night through Thursday, we will monitor the approaching frontal system for any chance of severe weather. Early model runs show plenty of CAPE and shear, with divergence aloft and PWAT values well over the 90th percentile for early May.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to continue through the period. Light and variable to calm winds overnight are forecast to become easterly to southeasterly late Sunday morning into the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1039 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Buoy 42020 has gone adrift, so will rely heavily into NWPS and wave height guidance, dropping the Small Craft Advisory for all coastal waters. Southeasterly winds return by Sunday afternoon. The pressure gradient strengthens again Tuesday into Wednesday, with SCEC to SCA conditions Tuesday afternoon along the bay and nearshore waters and SCEC conditions Wednesday afternoon. A frontal system gradually works south mid to late week, with SCEC conditions late Thursday into early Friday. The chance of showers and thunderstorms returns Wednesday night through Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 82 69 85 74 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 82 64 87 71 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 84 67 88 74 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 84 65 89 72 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 73 80 76 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 68 84 73 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...None.