textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1047 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

- Greatest rain chances of the forecast today over the Rio Grande Plains. Otherwise, mostly rain-free conditions are expected outside of a daily chance for isolated showers/storms.

- Temperatures gradually climb through late week to above normal by this weekend.

- A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect until 7 AM Friday for the Lower Texas Coast beaches.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1047 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Deep tropical moisture will continue spreading into the region from Mexico overnight, supporting isolated showers and thunderstorms across the Rio Grande Plains. Rain chances Thursday remain highest east of US-281, with low PoPs (20-30%) and PWATs potentially reaching up to 2.1 inches - near the daily climatological maximum for late October. The axis of heaviest rainfall from this tropical moisture is expected to remain north of the region, but Zapata, Starr, and Jim Hogg counties could see around a quarter of an inch of rain, with isolated higher amounts up to 2 inches under heavy or training storms. Gulf moisture moving inland this afternoon may bring isolated showers near the coast - similar to what was seen Wednesday. Mostly dry conditions return Friday through the weekend, with only isolated diurnal showers possible.

Temperatures will remain near to above normal, with highs in the 80s today, gradually warming into the low 90s through the weekend. The upper RGV and plains may reach the mid-90s early next week. A deepening upper level system moving across central CONUS may bring a cold front early to mid next week, along with cooler temperatures and another chance for showers and thunderstorms. There remains uncertainty in the systems evolution and timing, so continue to monitor the forecast for updates.

At local beaches, minor coastal flooding remains possible during high tide (11 PM Thursday) with to persistent onshore flow and high astronomical tides. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect through at least Friday morning.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the 00Z cycle. Southeasterly winds become light overnight through early Thursday morning. Winds pick up late morning out of the southeast at 10-15 kts. Cloud cover will stick around Thursday, with an isolated shower or two possible in the tail end of the cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1047 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Gentle to moderate southeasterly to onshore winds, slight seas, and will prevail into the weekend. Daily isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible, with rain chances increasing early next week ahead of a cold front. Thunderstorms could lead to locally higher winds and seas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 87 74 85 71 / 10 10 10 0 HARLINGEN 88 71 86 68 / 10 10 10 0 MCALLEN 92 74 89 72 / 10 10 20 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 91 71 88 70 / 10 20 30 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 75 80 74 / 20 10 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 85 72 83 70 / 20 10 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.