textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1052 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Key Messages:

- The forecast has shifted drier Sunday and Monday with rain chances limited to 10-20%.

- Rain chances will increase again Tuesday and Wednesday as the next system arrives. - A moderate risk of rip currents continues through Sunday evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

There is a noticeable shift in the forecast for Sunday and Monday as the recent activity multiple boundaries have worked to stabilize the atmosphere across South Texas. Recent model runs have come in substantially drier over the next few days, with limited instability, a stronger capping inversion, and lower PWAT values. Rain chances Sunday are now limited to around 10-20% and primarily concentrated on Cameron and Willacy counties. PoPs are forecast to fall to around 10-15% Monday over the coastal counties and <10% further inland.

Rain chances begin to increase again Tuesday afternoon as the next system works its way into the area. A deep upper level trough looks to move into West Texas, bringing strong upper level divergence and an influx of mid-level moisture to Deep South Texas. This system will again bring the potential for heavy rainfall and the Weather Prediction Center has all of Deep South Texas under a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall Tuesday and Tuesday night. The increased probabilities for rainfall will continue into the day Wednesday, with the highest probabilities over the eastern half of the CWA.

Drier conditions are forecast to return Thursday and Friday, though a <10% probability of sea breeze showers will likely remain Thursday afternoon.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to continue this evening with MVFR ceilings developing at BRO and HRL overnight. There is a low potential for another round of convection late this evening or early Sunday morning, though probabilities are too low for inclusion in the TAFs. VFR conditions are forecast to return after sunrise, though a low probability for showers and thunderstorms will linger through the remainder of the period.

MARINE

Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Generally favorable marine conditions are forecast through the period, though elevated wind speeds Tuesday night into Wednesday may warrant brief Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines. There is a 20-30% chance for showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters Sunday and rain chances increase again Tuesday night into Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 77 90 75 89 / 40 50 20 30 HARLINGEN 73 89 71 88 / 30 40 10 30 MCALLEN 75 90 74 90 / 30 30 20 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 72 90 72 90 / 20 20 30 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 84 78 83 / 40 40 20 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 88 75 87 / 30 40 20 20

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.