textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 624 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Key Messages:

- The forecast has shifted drier Sunday and Monday with rain chances limited to 10-20%.

- Rain chances will increase again Tuesday and Wednesday as the next system arrives. - A moderate risk of rip currents continues through Sunday evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

There is a noticeable shift in the forecast for Sunday and Monday as the recent activity multiple boundaries have worked to stabilize the atmosphere across South Texas. Recent model runs have come in substantially drier over the next few days, with limited instability, a stronger capping inversion, and lower PWAT values. Rain chances Sunday are now limited to around 10-20% and primarily concentrated on Cameron and Willacy counties. PoPs are forecast to fall to around 10-15% Monday over the coastal counties and <10% further inland.

Rain chances begin to increase again Tuesday afternoon as the next system works its way into the area. A deep upper level trough looks to move into West Texas, bringing strong upper level divergence and an influx of mid-level moisture to Deep South Texas. This system will again bring the potential for heavy rainfall and the Weather Prediction Center has all of Deep South Texas under a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall Tuesday and Tuesday night. The increased probabilities for rainfall will continue into the day Wednesday, with the highest probabilities over the eastern half of the CWA.

Drier conditions are forecast to return Thursday and Friday, though a <10% probability of sea breeze showers will likely remain Thursday afternoon.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Mid to high level clouds and light winds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning However, a Low stratus deck with IFR/MVFR ceilings continue at MFE. VFR conditions with light to moderate northeast to east winds are expected later this morning into the afternoon. MVFR ceilings are forecast to develop late in the period, especially after 06Z.

MARINE

Issued at 1052 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Generally favorable marine conditions are forecast through the period, though elevated wind speeds Tuesday night into Wednesday may warrant brief Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines. There is a 20-30% chance for showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters Sunday and rain chances increase again Tuesday night into Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 91 74 90 76 / 30 10 10 0 HARLINGEN 89 70 88 72 / 20 10 10 0 MCALLEN 91 73 90 75 / 20 20 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 91 71 90 73 / 10 20 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 84 77 83 80 / 20 10 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 74 87 76 / 20 10 10 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.