textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 634 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Key Messages:

- Unseasonably warm, dry, and breezy to windy conditions this week improve behind a cold front with deep moisture this weekend.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected Easter weekend and early next week, with early total rainfall estimates of 1-1.5 inches by Monday evening.

- Breezy to windy conditions this week and a cold front this weekend will create adverse marine conditions across the bay and Gulf waters.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Above normal temperatures and generally rain-free conditions will continue through at least the end of the week across Deep South Texas. Persistent low level southerly to southeasterly flow will continue to transport rich, Gulf moisture towards the region, allowing for precipitable water values to steadily increase each day through the weekend. While most of the region is expected to be rain-free through the end of the week, isolated streamer showers and/or sea breeze activity cannot be ruled out along the immediate coast and Gulf waters as moisture content increases and coincides with diurnal instability. Otherwise, high temperatures each day will range from the upper 80s along the immediate coast to upper 90s across the Rio Grande Plains, around 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of year. In combination with the humidity, this will result in a minor (level 1 of 4) to moderate (level 2 of 4) heat risk through the end of the week. Continue to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if spending prolonged time outdoors.

Our attention will then turn towards Easter weekend and early next week, where a pattern change will bring unsettled weather and below normal temperatures across Deep South Texas. Deterministic guidance continues to highlight an upper level trough and attendant cold front approaching the region this weekend. Ahead of the cold front, precipitable water values are expected to range from 1.8 inches to around 2 inches or so. According to SPCs sounding climatology, this is above the 90th percentile for early April across the region.

Precipitation chances increase Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon from north/northwest to south/southeast as the cold front translates across the region. The latest suite of deterministic guidance is keying in on Saturday night into Easter Sunday morning as the window for the highest chance of rain (60-70%), although low to medium rain chances (30-50%) continue into Easter Sunday afternoon. The combination of high moisture content, local forcing along the front, and large scale forcing for ascent will likely result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning. While an isolated severe threat with hail and wind cannot be ruled out Saturday night, locally heavy rainfall will be the primary concern this weekend. Probabilistic guidance indicates a low to medium (20-40%) chance of rainfall greater than 1 inch Saturday night through Sunday afternoon across the region. Overall rainfall accumulations from Saturday through Monday range from around 1-1.5 inches, with the highest amounts across the Northern Ranchlands. While any rainfall is beneficial across the region given our ongoing drought conditions, any locally heavy rain may result in nuisance flooding or runoff issues.

Temperatures on Easter Sunday and Monday will range from the upper 60s across the Northern Ranchlands to low to mid 70s across the Rio Grande Valley, which is around 10-15 degrees below normal for early April.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 634 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

VFR conditions and breezy southeasterly winds give way to MVFR ceilings and lighter winds overnight before VFR and gusty winds return late Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Low to moderate seas and light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue through this weekend across the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters. A locally enhanced pressure gradient may result in brief Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions each afternoon along the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters. A cold front approaches this weekend, which will likely result in Small Craft Advisory conditions. Rain chances also increase this weekend and into early next week, with a potential for thunderstorms Saturday night into early Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 72 88 72 87 / 0 10 10 0 HARLINGEN 67 91 70 91 / 0 10 0 0 MCALLEN 72 94 75 94 / 10 10 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 70 96 71 97 / 10 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 72 79 73 79 / 10 10 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 70 86 70 87 / 0 10 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.