textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 127 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in place for inland Kenedy county until 6 PM Saturday for heat indices up to 116. An SPS is in place for the remainder of deep South Texas until 6 PM today for heat indices to 111. - Hot, breezy conditions will continue. SPS and/or Heat Advisories are likely through Tuesday with "feels like" temps between 105-115 and a Major to Extreme risk of heat related illness.

- Low chance (20% or less) of isolated showers and thunderstorms on Sunday west of US281. Otherwise, rain-free conditions persist.

- Borderline Fire Danger Statement (RFD) conditions can be expected at times early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Ridging will maintain hot and dry conditions, with widespread Major (and pockets of Extreme) risk of heat-related illness continuing into next week. There is a Heat Advisory in effect for inland Kenedy County until 6 PM Saturday. High temperatures in the triple digits will allow for heat indices to rise to 105-115, highest along I-69E and in the mid to upper RGV. Overnight low temperatures may break record "high minimum" temperatures through much of the forecast with lows near 80, providing little relief from the daytime heat. Record high temperatures at the McAllen MFE climate site will be tested today and tomorrow. Special Weather Statements and/or Heat Advisories are possible each day through Tuesday.

Upper level ridging translating westward over the desert SW allows moisture to return today and tomorrow, increasing PWATs to 2-2.2 inches. A weak front stalling over central TX will bring a low (20% or less) chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into the overnight hours. Widespread rainfall coverage is not expected, but low chance PoPs are in place west of US281. Most places that see rainfall should expect a half an inch or less. Ridging continues to build eastward next week, suppressing rain chances Monday onward. By the end of next week, low chance pops return near the coast as coastal troughing parks near deep S TX.

The enhanced thermal gradient will allow gusty winds around 20-25 mph to continue each day. Moisture returning this weekend should keep minimum relative humidity (RH) values above levels of concern regarding fire weather. Early next week, afternoon minimum RH of 20- 45% paired with gusty winds may raise concerns of fire weather conditions in the Rio Grande Plains and RGV.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF cycle. Hot temperatures in the triple digits with gusty south-southeasterly winds will continue through the afternoon and evening. Winds diminish overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 127 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Generally moderate south-southeasterly winds and slight seas are expected through the period. Gusty winds are possible with an enhanced pressure gradient, which will likely bring Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions each day over the Laguna Madre. There could be brief periods where winds reach low end Small Craft Advisory. Mostly dry conditions are expected outside of an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible on the Gulf waters Sunday ahead of a stalling front over central TX.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 80 99 79 98 / 0 10 0 0 HARLINGEN 77 102 76 102 / 0 10 0 0 MCALLEN 81 105 80 105 / 0 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 79 104 79 105 / 0 10 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 89 80 89 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 97 78 97 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ251.

GM...None.