textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 503 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

- One last unseasonably warm day expected on Friday with near- record to record-breaking highs in the upper 80s.

- Chances of rain briefly increase to a low to medium (30-50%) chance across the coastal counties and the Middle RGV ahead of and along a strong cold front moving through the entire region late Friday night into early Saturday morning.

- Breezy to windy northerly winds and crashing relative humidity values behind the front may lead to fire weather conditions and issuances of a Fire Danger Statement on Saturday and possibly Sunday.

- A Rip Current Statement continues through Friday afternoon, with high risk of rip currents likely persisting through this upcoming weekend along with other expected coastal hazards.

- A Small Craft Advisory is likely for the Lower Texas coastal Waters late Friday night into Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 953 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

The shortwave and associated surface low pressure that brought high winds to Deep South Texas on Thursday continues northeastward into Upper Midwest this evening, leaving much lighter south-southeasterly winds in its wake. Friday morning lows remain above average, reaching into the 60s to near 70 degrees F near and along the coast in the Lower RGV. The next upstream mid/upper level trough deepens across the Desert Southwest tonight into Friday, developing an associated low pressure over the Southern Plains by Friday afternoon, with a cold front attached, extending into northern/western Texas. Meanwhile, a weakening cold front, extending from the surface low of the previous system, is likely to begin to arrive into the Rio Grande Plains Friday evening, possibly to the US 281/I-69 corridor by the evening, shifting winds from southerly to northerly. Before then, Friday afternoon highs remain around 15-17 degrees F above average, potentially even warmer, with highs in the upper 80s across inland Deep South Texas, with near-record to record-breaking highs likely. Highs in the upper 70s along the coast are expected.

As the back edge of the trough pushes east of the Rockies Friday afternoon and evening, a surface high pressure builds rapidly into the Southern Plains, pushing a secondary cold front into the CWA late Friday night into Saturday morning. As lift enhances across the region, probabilities of rain increase from north to south to a low to medium (30-50%) chance of rain ahead of and along the front across the coastal counties and Middle RGV while the rest of the region sees a low (15-30%) chance. This solution aligns well with the latest runs of the HRRR and RAP, which feature a line of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, with a low potential for isolated strong storms. Current expected rainfall amounts through Saturday morning across the coastal counties and Middle RGV range generally between 0.10-0.15 of an inch, though some locations could receive half an inch within heavier downpours in the Lower RGV. Further west, chances of rain increase to a low (15-30%) chance, lowest across the Rio Grande Plains. As the front passes through, overnight temperatures could drop from the upper 60s/lower 70s late Friday night to the 50s/60s by Saturday morning.

Additionally, breezy and gusty northerly winds result from the tightened pressure gradient behind the front, peaking with winds of around 15-20 mph, gusting to 25-30 mph, throughout the early morning to early afternoon hours on Saturday. As the winds enhance, funneling colder and drier air into the region, PoPs decrease to a low (20-30%) chance of light rain by Saturday evening, dropping off on Sunday but continuing on Monday as coastal low tries to develop, with the best chances along the coast. Despite increased cloud coverage and chances of rain, there remains a chance for fire weather conditions as winds increase and relative humidity values drop into Saturday afternoon, which may result in a Fire Danger Statement on Saturday and possibly Sunday. Otherwise, continued coastal troughing leads to an additional low (15-30%) chance of rain along the coast Monday into Tuesday. Increased cloud coverage and persistent cold air advection are likely to result in below average temperatures, with daytime highs in the 60s Saturday through Tuesday and overnight lows in the 40s/50s Saturday night through possibly Thursday night of next week. Another front is possible next Wednesday or Thursday.

Meanwhile, a Rip Current Statement continues through Friday afternoon as waves of 3-4 feet with 7 second periods lead to a continued high risk of rip currents. As the front barrels through inland Deep South Texas and the Lower Texas Gulf waters (0-60 nm out), strong northerly winds are expected to result in large breaking waves and dangerous rip currents by Saturday morning, with high risk of rip currents likely continuing through the remainder of this weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 503 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

MVFR to VFR conditions will occur at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. The passage of a cold front is anticipated for the pre-dawn hours of Saturday, with veering winds and the chance of convection.

MARINE

Issued at 953 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate (3-4 feet) seas continue tonight into Friday night. Late Friday night, chances of rain from developing showers and thunderstorms ahead of and along an arriving strong cold front briefly increase chances of rain to a medium to likely (40-70%) chance of rain into Saturday morning. Strong northerly winds and possibly near-gale force gusts arrive behind the front, continuing from late Friday night through most of Saturday night, leading to rough (8-10 feet) seas along with a low (15-30%) chance of rain. A Small Craft Advisory is likely late Friday night or Saturday morning into or through Sunday. Winds and seas gradually improve throughout Sunday to gentle to moderate northeasterly winds by Monday night with moderate (3-4 feet) seas becoming easterly on Tuesday. A low (20-30%) chance of rain continues, decreasing possibly next Wednesday ahead of another potential cold front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 85 62 72 51 / 0 50 50 20 HARLINGEN 87 59 69 46 / 0 50 40 20 MCALLEN 89 62 70 50 / 0 50 40 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 87 57 69 49 / 0 30 30 30 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 63 71 56 / 0 50 60 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 84 60 72 51 / 0 50 50 20

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...None.