textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1139 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

* Mainly rain-free and at times breezy conditions will prevail through next week; day-to-day low, non-zero probability of a rogue sea breeze shower or thunderstorm through Friday.

* Peak heat indices between 100-110F degrees will result in widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk across Deep South Texas each day. * Favorable marine conditions can be expected through next week with light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1139 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Mainly rain-free and at times breezy conditions with slightly hotter than normal temperatures will be the theme through the forecast period or through next week. A 591-594 dam sub-tropical heat ridge will main fixture driving our hot, dry, and at times breezy weather pattern through the forecast period.

A dangerous, record-setting heatwave is unfolding and will continue through this week across the central and eastern U.S. as the aforementioned heat dome resides over Appalachia into the Mid- Atlantic. Next week, the heat dome retreats westward over the Desert Southwest Region. With the heat ridge displaced to our north, Deep South Texas will be spared from the brunt of the heat with temperatures being average to slightly above average for this time of year. Additionally, this synoptic setup will continue to bring a low, yet non-zero probability of isolated sea breeze convection (showers and storms) today through Friday.

An enhanced pressure gradient near the sfc will continue to result in breezy conditions at times through the forecast period.

As highlighted, since the heat ridge/dome will not be directly overhead, temps will be slightly hotter than normal levels. Daytime high temps will range between the mid 90s close to the coast to the lower 100s far west/inland each day. Meanwhile, overnight low temperatures will be in the mid 70s across the Northern Ranchlands to the upper 70s/lower 80s along the Rio Grande Valley each night. Ultimately, this will result in mainly Moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk across the region through next week with peak heat indices ranging between 100-110F degrees.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Through 18z Friday....VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 18z TAF period. There could be an instance or two of MVFR clouds around. A rogue shower is possible this afternoon and possibly again on Friday.

Winds will be out of the southeast 5-15 kts through the 18z TAF period. Winds could gusts up to 20 kts or so, particularly during the afternoon hours.

MARINE

Issued at 1139 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Favorable marine conditions can be expected through the forecast period with light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 80 94 79 94 / 20 20 10 0 HARLINGEN 76 96 76 96 / 20 20 10 0 MCALLEN 79 99 79 100 / 20 20 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 100 77 101 / 20 20 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 87 81 87 / 20 20 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 92 78 92 / 20 20 10 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.