textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1036 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

* Unseasonably warm, dry, and at times windy conditions will prevail through the middle parts of next week.

* There remains a low-medium chance (20-40%) for rain showers over the Gulf Waters Wednesday and then again Friday night through Saturday.

* Fire weather concerns increase over the weekend following a cool fropa.

* Breezy to windy conditions ahead and behind the cool front will result in adverse marine conditions developing Friday night through Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1036 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Unseasonably warm, dry, and at times windy conditions will be the theme through the forecast period or through Wednesday of next week. Due to the combination of antecedently dry soils, freeze cured fuels, windy conditions, and lowering relative humidity (RH) values, fire weather concerns will also be on the increase, specifically over the weekend (Saturday - all depends on the timing of the cold front, and to a lesser extent Sunday). See the FIRE WEATHER SECTION for more details.

Through tonight, winds will steadily subside eventually becoming light and variable to calm as the sfc pressure gradient relaxes and mixing heights decrease. The combination of light to calm winds and narrowing dewpoint depressions amid plenty of radiational cooling could foster the development of low stratus clouds, mist, and/or fog across Deep South Texas overnight tonight. According to the NBM via DESI, the prospects for fog is medium (40-50%) over the Northern Ranchlands and low (30%) over the RGV. Have included fog in the grids tonight over the Northern Ranchlands.

Global forecast models and ensembles continue to depict a zonal (westerly) to semi-zonal (southwesterly) flow regime in place along with a 582-588 mb ridging being the dominant weather fixture over the southern Plains through early next week. There will be a couple of weak upper level troughs/perturbations stemming from a parent trough over/nearby the Beaufort Sea that will track over the southern Plains this week into next weekend. The first one will travel from northern Mexico through the state of Texas through Wednesday (in decaying fashion). A second, stronger impulse is progged to track over the region Friday through Saturday.

Given that the main storm track, better jet stream dynamics, and instability will be just to our north-northwest (i.e. over the Southern Rockies into central/northern Texas), impulses associated with the aforementioned weak trough in the form of showers and thunderstorms will pass to our north/northwest effectively keeping Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley rain-free through the forecast period. That said, there is a low-medium chance (20-40%) for showers over the Gulf Waters on Wednesday and then again Friday night through Saturday.

After a windy day on Tuesday, there will be additional periods of breezy to windy conditions. Our next opportunity will be Friday- Saturday ahead of a cool front. On Friday, another low pressure system over the Sierra Madre helping to enhance the sfc pressure gradient along with a strengthening LLJ 20 kts -> 40 kts, and increasing mixing heights ahead of an approaching cold front and mid-upper level trough, will result in another breezy to windy day. Southerly winds 15-25 mph are expected to gusts up to 40 mph on Friday. These winds will continue into Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. The timing of the cold front on Saturday remains uncertain, though it appears that it will during the second half of the day. Following the cool fropa, winds will shift out of the northwest 10-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Breezy conditions are also possible on Monday and/or Tuesday of next week. The breezy to windy conditions will result in adverse marine conditions developing on Tuesday and then again Friday night through Sunday (see MARINE SECTION for more details).

An emerging negative Pacific North American (-PNA)/positive Arctic Oscillation (+AO) pattern with troughing (cooler/stormier) over the western U.S. vs. ridging over the central U.S. is expected to take shape through early next week. A 582-588 dam ridge overhead coupled with ample warm air advection (WAA) amid breezy southerly winds will support unseasonably warm temperatures (late March to late April- like) through the forecast period. High temperatures will mainly be in the 80s across Deep South Texas with some low-mid 90s mainly along and west of IH-69C through the period. The warmest days where 90s will be around are Friday-Saturday and again Tuesday-Wednesday. Low temperatures will mainly be in the 50s and 60s across the region through the forecast period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1036 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Through 06z Thursday....VFR conditions will by and large prevail through the 06z TAF cycle. Tonight, as winds continue to wane and dewpoint depressions narrow amid radiational cooling from mainly clear skies, some low stratus (MVFR-IFR) clouds could develop at the terminals. Any MVFR-IFR low stratus clouds that develops will be between hours of 09-15z before fading mid-late Wednesday morning.

Light and variable to calm winds through tonight will pick up out of the southeast during the day on Wednesday with speeds between 5-12 kts.

MARINE

Issued at 1036 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Adverse (SCEC) marine conditions are expected Friday night through Sunday in response to breezy to windy conditions, and the approach and passage of a cool front. Outside of that, marine conditions will generally be favorable with low to moderate winds and seas through the forecast period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1036 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Fire weather concerns are expected to increase over the weekend given the combination of persistent dryness, lower relative humidity (RH) levels, at times breezy to windy conditions, and freeze cured grasses/brush. The main wild card at this point continues to be the precise timing of the cool fropa on Saturday and the magnitude of winds on Sunday.

The latest report from the U.S. Drought Monitor continues to show long term dryness over much of Deep South Texas with D3 (Extreme Drought) over 45% of Deep South Texas including most of the Northern Ranchlands into the Upper Rio Grande Valley, D2 (Severe Drought) conditions over 19% of Deep South Texas including most of the remainder of the northern Ranchlands and upper RGV, D1 (Moderate Drought) over 23% of the region including most of the coast, mid to lower RGV, and northwestern Zapata County, and D0 (Abnormally Dry) conditions over 9% of the region including portions of the mid to lower RGV.

Saturday, following the passage of a cool front, looks to be the day at greatest risk for fire dangers should the front pass through the region during the early afternoon hours. With RH values expected to fall to between 15-40% across much of Deep South Texas on Saturday coupled with breezy 20ft winds 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph ahead and behind the front, a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) may be needed on Saturday for an Elevated Fire Weather Risk. We also have to keep close watch on the winds for Sunday as that could be another day of elevated fire weather risk. Relative humidity (RH) values will continue to be low (15-40%), but the winds will be lighter (borderline) out of the north-northwest.

Will need to monitor RH trends and the threat for fire weather through early next week with additional chances for somewhat lower RH values on top of breezy conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 64 83 62 83 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 60 84 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 65 87 64 88 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 61 86 62 87 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 65 74 64 73 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 61 80 60 78 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.