textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1126 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

* First Arctic cold front of 2026 passes through South Texas Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening. No frozen precipitation is expected, though we could see some light rain or drizzle behind the front.

* There is a small (10-20%) chance that areas in the far Northern Ranchlands could see a brief freeze Sunday morning, but confidence was too low to issue any watches for Sunday morning.

* The coldest air will arrive Sunday evening, with freezing temperatures and extreme wind chills expected. A Freeze Watch is in effect overnight Sunday for all of Deep South Texas except the islands. An Extreme Cold Watch for all of Deep South Texas including the islands is in effect overnight Sunday into Monday as well.

* Hazardous boating and swimming conditions will occur for a few days following the frontal passage.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1126 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Unseasonably warm and dry weather is expected the rest of today and a portion of tomorrow ahead of an Arctic cold front that should initially arrive to the Northern Ranchlands tomorrow afternoon and complete its passage through the Lower Rio Grande Valley by late tomorrow evening. Afternoon highs on Saturday should reach the upper 70s/lower 80s around the middle of the afternoon before temperatures start to fall throughout the evening into the night.

There is a low chance that the northern counties (particularly Brooks, Jim Hogg, and Kenedy) could see a few patchy areas of freezing temperatures for an hour or two on Sunday morning. DESI guidance suggests only a 10-20% chance of this occurring. Because the probability is so low and confidence is also too low, no Freeze Watch was issued for Saturday night into Sunday morning. Sunday morning temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid 30s for the Northern Ranchlands and the lower 40s for the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Overnight rain/drizzle chances are between 20-40% behind the front, but no frozen precipitation is expected for all of Deep South Texas.

Sunday is expected to be dry and skies are expected to clear throughout the day, with highs reaching the mid to upper 50s. The coldest temperatures are expected Sunday night into Monday morning, which will be the coldest night of the year thus far. Overnight, low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid to upper 20s for the Northern Ranchlands and the low 30s for the Lower Rio Grande Valley. A Freeze Watch is in effect for all of Deep South Texas (excepting the islands) Sunday night into Monday morning. The Northern Ranchlands are likely to experience a hard freeze as temperatures will remain colder for a longer duration, whereas the Lower Rio Grande Valley is more likely to experience a light freeze only lasting a few hours. Sea turtle stunnings in the Bay are also likely on Monday as sea surface temperatures rapidly decrease with the surge of cold air.

Freezing temperatures are also expected Monday night into Tuesday for most of Deep South Texas due to continued presence of cold air, calmer winds, and clear skies allowing for enhanced radiational cooling. Any Freeze Warnings that are issued may need to continue into Tuesday morning as well.

In addition to the freezing temperatures, dangerous wind chills will pose a significant exposure risk for anyone spending time outdoors, especially on Sunday night into Monday morning. Northerly gusts up to 25-30 mph are expected, which could lower wind chills so that it feels like it is in the teens for much of of Deep South Texas. An Extreme Cold Watch is in effect overnight Sunday into Monday for all of Deep South Texas including the islands. Wind chills are also expected to be in the teens and 20s for Monday night into Tuesday as well before a warming trend commences on Tuesday. People, plants, pipes, and pets will need to be protected from exposure on both of these nights.

There is a also moderate risk of life-treatening rip currents tonight and tomorrow at area beaches. These risks are expected to increase as the front passes through the area this weekend. Once the front passes through, rip current risk is expected to be upgraded to high, and high surf advisories may be needed as well.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected with southeasterly winds at all airports throughout the afternoon. Overnight, ceilings will lower and fog may form, reducing conditions to MVFR. Because winds may become gusty early morning ahead of an approaching cold front, there was less confidence that conditions would reach IFR and it was not included in the TAF package.

MARINE

Issued at 1126 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Conditions should remain favorable overnight, but are expected to deteriorate tomorrow ahead of the frontal passage. Small Craft Exercise Caution/Small Craft Advisories are likely to be needed due to increasing winds and wave heights. Conditions are expected to remain unfavorable through at least Monday evening before conditions begin to gradually improve again.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 80 69 81 44 / 0 10 10 30 HARLINGEN 82 66 81 40 / 0 10 10 30 MCALLEN 85 69 83 45 / 0 10 10 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 85 65 79 40 / 0 10 10 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 68 76 48 / 0 20 20 40 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 66 81 41 / 0 20 10 40

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Freeze Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for TXZ248>255-351-353>355.

Extreme Cold Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for TXZ248>255-351-353>355-451-454-455.

GM...None.