textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 628 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

* A few showers may occur over the Northern Ranchlands this afternoon into the evening.

* Otherwise, hot and rain-free conditions continue through early next week, with Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk increasing to Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk for the Lower Rio Grande Valley by the end of the weekend.

* There is a Moderate Risk of life-threatning rip currents at area beaches through tomorrow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

A few light showers are expected to continue this afternoon into this evening over the Northern Ranchlands as a surface low remains over Northeast Mexico and a weak stationary front remains draped across Central Texas. The surface low is expected to weaken tomorrow, and conditions should be drier starting tomorrow and into the weekend, with high temperatures in the upper 90s for most of Deep South Texas, and the lower 100s for the Western Ranchlands. Heat indices should range between 100-107 throughout the region. Winds should remain light to moderate and southeasterly with partly to mostly cloudy skies through the end of the weekend.

Yesterday, there was some model disagreement about the overall weather pattern for early next week; the GFS was suggesting a wetter and more moisture-rich pattern favoring a mid-level low over Mexico, while the ECMWF was suggesting drier and hotter pattern dominated by mid-level ridging. Model guidance has come into better agreement today, and both the GFS and the ECMWF are now both favoring mid to upper level ridging for early next week. Conditions are therefore expected to be hotter and precipitation- free, though southeasterly surface flow will continue bringing humid air onshore from the Gulf. Though most areas should continue to see Moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk, a few areas (particularly the Lower Rio Grande Valley) could see Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk by the beginning of next week as humidity keeps heat indices higher.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with southeasterly winds diminishing overnight and returning by mid- morning Thursday. There is a low, less than 20 percent, chance of a streamer shower or two roaming near the RGV aerodromes Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon. Confidence is too low to include in this TAF package.

MARINE

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Favorable conditions are expected through the middle of next week with light to moderate southeasterly winds and low to moderate seas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 81 93 81 94 / 10 20 0 10 HARLINGEN 78 95 79 96 / 10 10 0 0 MCALLEN 81 98 80 99 / 10 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 79 98 79 100 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 87 81 88 / 10 20 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 91 80 92 / 10 20 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.