textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1244 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

- Hot, mainly dry, and at times breezy conditions will continue through the middle parts of next week.

- A Heat Advisory is now in effect for Brooks, Coastal Cameron, Coastal Kenedy, Coastal Willacy, Inland Cameron, Inland Kenedy, Inland Willacy, Northern Hidalgo, Southern Hidalgo, and Starr Counties from Noon until 7 PM this evening.

- A Special Weather Statement (SPS) has been issued for all of Deep South Texas, outside of the island for Friday.

- A Fire Danger Statement (RFD) has been issued for all of Deep South Texas, excluding the coastal and island counties from 1-7 PM CDT Friday (see Fire Weather Section).

- A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the Bay and Nearshore Waters from 1-8 PM CDT Friday due to breezy southeast winds (see Marine Section).

- Record to near record-breaking temperatures are expected to continue over the next few days at least (see Climate Section).

- Widespread Major (level 3 of 4) to increasing areas of Extreme (level 4 of 4) Heat Risk will continue through the middle of next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 1244 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Latest forecast guidance suggest slightly higher dewpoints than previously forecast for Friday. Therefore, have issued a Heat Advisory from Noon until 7 PM Friday for Starr, Hidalgo, the coastal and inland portions of Kenedy, Willacy and Cameron Counties.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1110 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Hot, mainly dry, and at times breezy conditions will continue to be the main weather storyline through the middle parts of next week as an anomalously strong and elongated 591-594 dam heat ridge complex remains anchored over the southern U.S. This persistent and dominant feature in our pattern will continue to foster record to near record- breaking heat in the days ahead (see CLIMATE SECTION for more details). High temperatures are progged to continue to climb into the upper 90s to mid 100s through the forecast period with overnight lows in the 70s to lower 80s. Peak heat indices ranging between 105- 115F degrees will continue to warrant day-to-day or near daily Special Weather Statements (SPSs) and/or Heat Advisories through this week. The combination of very hot temperatures during the day and very warm temperatures at night providing little relief, widespread Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk to increasing areas of Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk will be the case through the middle part of next week.

Medium range forecast models are signaling the potential for showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze at times between Sunday and Friday of next week. That said, we'll keep close watch and monitor the potential for near daily chances for sea breeze showers and storms along the sea breeze Sunday through Friday of next week. Currently, low grade (20-30%) chances exists Sunday and Wednesday. Higher probabilities and more widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms could occur Thursday and Friday. Currently, we have medium chances (30-60%) for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday as the pattern could potentially turn wetter, finally.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Southeast winds between 10 to 15 knots and mostly clear skies prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Light winds overnight will increase and become moderate to breezy later this morning into the afternoon. Some gusts between 25 to 30 knots will be possible in the afternoon. VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

MARINE

Issued at 1110 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Courtesy of breezy southeasterly winds, moderate seas are expected to develop on Friday. Mainly moderate seas, at times reaching Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) levels will persist over the Gulf Waters through next week. SCEC to Small Craft Advisory conditions due to the winds are possible over the Laguna Madre Friday into the early part of next week. In fact, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the Laguna Madre and the Nearshore Gulf Waters on Friday from 1-8 PM CDT.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1110 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

A Fire Danger Statement (RFD) has been issued for Friday from 1-7pm CDT. Minimum relative humidity (RH) values expected to drop between 20-45%, coupled with very dry antecedent soils, and breezy southeasterly winds 15-25 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph will result in an elevated risk for wildfires on Friday. Make sure to exercise safe fire weather practices.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1110 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Record to near record-breaking temperatures are possible through at least Sunday, courtesy of a persistent and strong 591-594 dam heat ridge complex established over the southern U.S. Below is a list of the record highs from Friday September 11th to Sunday September 13th.

Friday September 11, 2026:

Brownsville: 100F in 1900 & 1893 Harlingen: 103F in 1937 McAllen: 103F in 2023

Saturday September 12, 2026:

Brownsville: 100F in 1919 Harlingen: 101F in 2011 & 1930 McAllen: 103F in 1987

Sunday September 13, 2026:

Brownsville: 100F in 2023 & 1900 Harlingen: 100F in 1961, 2011, & 2023 McAllen: 104F in 1987

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 99 81 99 81 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 103 78 102 77 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 105 81 104 81 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 107 80 107 79 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 91 83 91 82 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 98 79 97 79 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ250>255-351-353>355.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening for GMZ130-132-135-150-155.