textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 531 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

- A Fire Danger Statement is in effect through this evening for all of Deep South Texas due to an elevated risk for fire weather.

- Adverse beach and marine conditions will continue through Monday along the Lower Texas beaches. - Below normal to near normal temperatures and generally rain- free conditions are expected to continue through the week.

- A pair of cold fronts will arrive by mid week and late this week into the weekend. Adverse marine, beach, and fire conditions will likely return.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1226 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Persistent cold air advection will continue through this evening across the region, which will maintain occasionally gusty north to northwest winds and temperatures around 10 degrees below normal for mid January across Deep South Texas. By this evening, winds should subside and fall below 10 MPH as high pressure settles in and allow for improved beach, marine, and fire weather conditions by tonight and tomorrow. The combination of light winds and partly cloudy skies should allow for radiational cooling processes to take effect tonight across the region, and have opted to nudge low temperatures slightly from the NBM to the mid to upper 40s.

As high pressure remains settled in across the region, expect temperatures to remain 5-10 degrees below normal through Tuesday. Temperatures briefly warm into the mid 70s on Wednesday, which is near to slightly above normal for mid January. However, the passage of cold front mid week should bring temperatures back to near normal in the low 70s. By the end of the week and into the weekend, guidance indicates a stronger cold front will reach Deep South Texas, although there are still discrepancies among deterministic, ensemble, and probabilistic guidance on the timing and evolution of this system. Still, adverse beach, marine, and fire conditions will likely return, as well as low precipitation chances and below normal temperatures by the weekend with the passage of the stronger cold front.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 531 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Through 00z Tuesday....VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 00z TAF cycle under mostly cloudy skies.

Winds will continue out of the north 5-15 kts through the forecast period.

MARINE

Issued at 1226 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Adverse marine conditions will continue through this evening over the Gulf waters and Laguna Madre as winds and seas remain elevated in wake of a cold front. Small Craft Advisory conditions will come to an end this evening, although periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions cannot be ruled out tonight. Conditions continue to improve on Monday and should remain favorable through the end of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 49 69 53 68 / 10 20 10 10 HARLINGEN 46 68 47 68 / 10 20 10 10 MCALLEN 49 69 50 68 / 10 20 20 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 45 67 46 66 / 10 20 20 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 55 66 60 66 / 20 20 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 49 68 53 68 / 10 20 10 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for TXZ451-454- 455.

High Surf Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for TXZ451-454- 455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ130-132- 135-150-155-170-175.