textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1229 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

- Building high pressure aloft maintains above average, near record, heat and dry conditions along with afternoon heat indices of around 105-110 F, or warmer, and moderate to major heat risks (levels 2/4 and 3/4).

- A Special Weather Statement (SPS) is in effect for southern Hidalgo County as well as the coastal and inland portions of Cameron, Willacy and Kenedy counties (excluding the barrier islands) from 11 AM to 7 PM Sunday as heat indices range from around 108 to 111 F for several hours.

- A Fire Danger Statement (RFD) is in effect for all of deep south Texas, excepting the coastal and island areas, from 1 PM to 8 PM Sunday.

- Additional SPSs for heat, RFDs for fire risks and a heat advisory, or two, remain possible into next weekend.

- A medium risk of rip currents continues through Sunday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1017 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

A pair of high pressures aloft maintain warmer than average temperatures and dry conditions across deep south Texas into next weekend; a weakening high pressure over coastal Texas retreats westward to northern Mexico while another builds and shifts east- southeastward from the Rockies to the Plains by the middle of next week, further building to near 597 dam and sagging southward to the Southern Plains later next week. Southeasterly onshore winds will continue to advect Gulf moisture inland, peaking during the afternoon and evening hours, decreasing from 25-30+ mph on Sunday to 20-25+ mph by Monday. Yet, at the same time, increased subsidence and a well-mixed atmosphere are expected to lead to drier than average moisture content.

The combined effect of these factors is likely to soar afternoon heat indices to around 105-110 F, or a few degrees warmer, as well as bring mostly moderate heat risks across deep south Texas into next weekend while portions of the Rio Grande Plains and populated regions of the RGV experience a major heat risk. Another SPS is in effect from 11 AM to 7 PM on Sunday for southern Hidalgo as well as the coastal and inland portions of Cameron, Willacy and Kenedy counties (except for the barrier islands) as heat indices peak around 108-111 F for several hours. Additional SPSs and a heat advisory, or two, remain possible each day.

Additionally, persistent lower relative humidity values, breezy winds and normal to dry fuels create the risk of spreading any fires that develop. This has led to the issuance of a RFD for most areas of Deep South Texas on Sunday, excepting the coastal and island areas. Additional RFDs are possible throughout the next 7 days.

Actual forecast maximum air temperatures are anticipated to range around 1 to 5 degrees F above average, with mainly widespread low/mid 100s (100-106 F) across inland areas, perhaps hitting upper 100s (107+ F) in the Rio Grande Plains. There is even the potential for some coastal areas near the western side of the Laguna Madre to hit the century mark by the middle part of next week as subsidence enhances even further. In general, forecast highs are currently progged to tie and potentially exceed record maximum temperatures, particularly Tuesday into Thursday.

A medium risk of rip currents continues through Sunday afternoon.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

VFR will occur at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours, with clear to partly cloudy skies and a daytime breezy onshore flow.

MARINE

Issued at 1017 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Moderate to fresh southeasterly winds, moderate (3-5 ft) seas and periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are likely to become mostly gentle to moderate southeasterly winds with slight to moderate (1-3 ft) seas by next Tuesday. Dry conditions are expected to continue.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 96 79 97 78 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 100 75 101 74 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 103 77 105 77 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 105 76 106 75 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 80 88 80 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 95 77 96 76 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.