textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1224 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect today for portions of Deep South Texas until 7 pm CDT. Temperatures between 99 and 109 with heat indices up to 114 may be expected.

- A Fire Danger Statement is in effect from 1 pm to 7 pm CDT for all of Deep South Texas, excepting coastal areas.

- Record breaking temperatures and Major (level 3 of 4) to Extreme (level 4 of 4) Heat Risk will continue into next week.

- Dry weather is expected the next few days, but low rain chances return Sunday along the sea breeze and increase to moderate for all of Deep South Texas by mid-to-late next week.

- A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Laguna Madre and the Nearshore Waters (0-20 nm) from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Strong upper-level ridging continues over the South-Southeastern Plains through at least the middle of next week, which will keep conditions unseasonably hot and mostly rain-free throughout Deep South Texas. Record-breaking temperatures and Major (level 3 of 4) to Extreme (level 4 of 4) Heat Risk is expected to persist through the weekend into next week. A Heat Advisory is in effect today until 7 PM CDT for most of Deep South Texas (all Eastern and Central counties plus Starr County). These ares could see temperatures between 99 and 109 degrees with heat indices as high as 114 degrees. Jim Hogg and Zapata Counties will also see dangerously hot conditions, with heat indices reaching 108-111 degrees.

As conditions dry out over the region today, there is also an increased risk of fire danger, as hot temperatures, dry fuels, and potentially gusty winds combined will cause fires to catch and spread quickly. Resultantly, a Fire Danger Statement has been issued for all of Deep South Texas excepting coastal areas from 1 pm to 7 pm CDT this evening. Outdoor burning is strongly discouraged.

Conditions are expected to dry out today and remain dry tomorrow, with little to no precipitation expected. Sunday is expected to be more humid, with increased surface moisture, and sea breeze shower/thunderstorm chances increase to around 20% for areas east of I-69C. Sea breeze chances decrease to below 15% for the early part of next week through at least Tuesday. However, there is a much better potential for rain throughout all of Deep South Texas later next week, as guidance indicates that an upper level shortwave may move through the area as the upper-level ridge pushes further to the east. This could bring moderate (40-50%) chances of rainfall to the region by Thursday, and continue into Friday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

VFR conditions with gusty southeasterly winds and clear skies are expected throughout the region. Gusts are expected to subside this evening, but skies should remain mostly clear.

MARINE

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Elevated southeasterly winds that can be gusty at times are expected each afternoon over the next few days. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Laguna Madre and the Nearshore Gulf Waters this afternoon from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT. SCEC conditions and/or additional Small Craft Advisories may be needed into the weekend as well. Conditions should return to more favorable by the end of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 81 99 81 97 / 0 0 0 20 HARLINGEN 78 102 77 101 / 0 0 0 20 MCALLEN 81 104 81 103 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 80 107 79 104 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 91 82 90 / 0 0 0 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 97 79 95 / 0 0 0 20

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ250>255-351- 353>355.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for GMZ130-132- 135-150-155.