textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1008 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

- Mainly dry, but there will be day-to-day or near day-to-day chances for showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two into Thursday; low-medium chances (20-50%) Monday through Wednesday/Thursday.

- Temperatures will average out normal to warmer than normal through next weekend. Hotter than normal temperatures (90s) will develop by next weekend amid a building heat ridge.

- A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect till 4am CDT Wednesday for the Lower Texas Coast beaches.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1008 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Mainly dry conditions can be expected through the forecast period or through early next week across Deep South Texas. However, there still remains low-medium (20-50%) day-to-day rain chances beginning tonight and persisting into Thursday, courtesy of a nearby mid-upper level shortwave disturbance. Embedded thunderstorms are possible with any showers that do develop. Most of the activity will be isolated to scattered (at best) and diurnally driven. By Friday, rain chances decrease as the aforementioned shortwave dissolves and high pressure builds into the region.

Despite the ridge flattening out during much of the forecast period, geopotential heights will still be positive on a southwest flow aloft regime to keep temperatures running normal to warmer than normal through next weekend. Hotter than normal temperatures return by next weekend as a 591 dam heat ridge builds over the region. High temperatures Sunday through Friday will range between the mid 80s near the coast to the lower 90s far west. Next weekend in next Monday, high temperatures will range between the low to mid 90s (most areas).

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 541 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Through 00z Wednesday....By and large, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 00z TAF cycle. There could be periods of low VFR/high MVFR ceilings during the forecast period. VCSH will be around, specifically for areas near the coast, including KBRO and maybe KHRL through tonight. Additional SHRA are possible on Tuesday. Have Prob30 groups to reflect the potential for a few rain showers on Tuesday. The best timing will be between 18-22z/Tues.

Easterly winds 5-10 knots will trend towards light and variable to calm tonight. On Tuesday, winds will once again pick up out of the east with speeds between 5-12 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 1008 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2026

Adverse marine (Small Craft Exercise Caution or SCEC) conditions are expected through this week, thanks to a persistent and increasing easterly swell and on occasions afternoon winds. A brief period of high end SCEC conditions offshore are expected tonight into early Tuesday. Day-to-day chances for showers and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms are possible over the Laguna Madre and Gulf Waters through Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 72 86 72 87 / 20 40 0 10 HARLINGEN 69 86 69 88 / 20 40 10 10 MCALLEN 71 89 71 91 / 0 30 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 69 90 69 91 / 0 10 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 72 80 74 81 / 40 50 10 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 70 83 70 85 / 30 30 10 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for TXZ451-454- 455.

GM...None.