textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 521 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

- Daytime high and overnight low temperatures are expected to remain 10-15 degrees above average (or warmer) tomorrow through Saturday, with record breaking temperatures certainly possible tomorrow.

- Dry and breezy conditions, lower relative humidity values, freeze-cured fuels and abnormally dry conditions to exceptional drought across the region continue to lead to fire weather concerns each day, most especially behind a cold front passing through either late Friday night or during the day Saturday.

- Fire Danger Statements and/or Fire Weather Watch and Red Flag Warnings are possible especially for Sunday as strong northerly winds and crashing relative humidity values arrive behind the front.

- It is strongly recommended to refrain from outdoor burning and be vigilant of flames, particularly on Sunday.

- Dangerous coastal and marine conditions behind the front are expected Saturday night and into the beginning of next week, likely including: High Risk of Rip Currents, High Surf Advisory, Small Craft Advisory and/or potential Gale Watch and Warning.

- Temperatures drop to near or below average Sunday through Monday before rising back to above average by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1005 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

A strong subtropical jet, featuring a series of embedded shortwaves, stretches from over the Desert Southwest to the mid-Atlantic into Saturday, maintaining west-southwesterly semi-zonal flow and west- southwesterly mid-level winds over Deep South Texas into the weekend. During this timeframe, southeasterly/southerly surface winds prevail as a surface high pressure extends over the Gulf, soaring temperatures to 10-15 degrees above average (or warmer). Either late Friday night or during the day Saturday, a cold front shifts surface winds to northerly/northeasterly into Monday before returning out of the Southeast Tuesday and Wednesday. Conditions remain dry through the forecast with ridging resuming Sunday.

Overnight tonight, a pressure gradient tightens across the region as a surface low pressure system exits the Rockies and over the Central Plains, leading to breezy conditions (SSE winds of around 10-15 mph, gusting to 20-25 mph) mainly along/east of US-281/I-69 C tonight, increasing to 15-20 mph, gusting to 25-30 mph, along/east of I-69 E tomorrow morning through the afternoon, before decreasing across the CWA tomorrow evening. Temperatures tonight minimize in the 60s. Tomorrow afternoon, the NBM and our official forecast prog afternoon temperatures reaching the lower/mid 90s, which has a decent possibility of breaking or tying record high temperatures. Yet, there remains uncertainty associated with the southward extent/strength of the surface low's attendant cold front (remaining north of our region) as well as the resulting 925 mb winds and degree of air compression, with the HRRR suggesting upper 90s possible across the Rio Grande Plains and Middle/Upper RGV while the NAM and HREF indicate upper 80s/lower 90s inland. A brief surface wind shift out of the north is anticipated west of US-281/I-69 C tomorrow afternoon. Low/mid 90s are anticipated on Friday and upper 80s/low 90s on Saturday, with some uncertainty continuing given the dry airmass and mixing of the southerly 925 mb winds. Overnight lows continue in the 60s. Although 20 foot winds and wind gusts are not anticipated to meet Fire Danger Statement (RFD) criteria tomorrow through Saturday, it is strongly urged to refrain from outdoor burning as afternoon relative humidity values range from around 20-45% across inland portions of Deep South Texas (lower further west).

The bigger focus of the forecast is the fire weather danger potential ahead of, but most especially behind, the passage of a cold front late Friday night or during the day Saturday. Most deterministic and ensemble model solutions show the cold front arriving to Deep South Texas Saturday morning or afternoon, passing through by the afternoon or evening. However, the NAM, which often handles cold front timing well, suggests the front passing through the entire region late Friday night into early Saturday morning. We will continue to monitor over the next several days as the timing of the front plays a crucial role on when the strong northerly winds and resultant crashing minimum relative humidity values arrive behind the front. As previously discussed, Sunday looks to be the day posing the greatest fire weather risk as a secondary surge of high pressure passes through Saturday night, leading to 20 foot winds of up to possibly 15-20 mph, gusting to 30-35 mph on Sunday, coinciding with relative humidity values ranging from the teens further west to around 40% across inland portions of the coastal counties. Fire Danger Statements (RFD) Statements are possible on Saturday and likely on Sunday, perhaps even a Fire Weather Watch later this week and weekend ahead of a potential Red Flag Warning on Sunday. Refraining from outdoor burning is strongly recommended as well as remaining extremely vigilant of any outdoor flames as freeze- cured fuels become very susceptible to wildfire spread this weekend into the beginning of next week. Adding to the fire weather risk is the fact that a D0-D3 (Abnormally Dry to Extreme), soon to be a D4 (Exceptional), Drought exists across the region. Additionally, temperatures drop to the 70s for daytime highs and 40s/50s for overnight lows Sunday through Monday, which is near to below average. Southeasterly winds return Tuesday into Wednesday, hiking temperatures back above normal into the middle of next week.

Outside of the fire weather conditions, strong northerly winds behind the front are expected to result in dangerous coastal conditions with High Risk of Rip Currents and High Surf Advisory likely Sunday into the beginning of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 521 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Conditions will likely bounce between MVFR and VFR today with visibility reduced due to haze through much of the period. Southerly to southeasterly winds will likely continue through the period, with gusts continuing this morning before diminishing this afternoon. Brief MVFR ceilings will be possible this morning, otherwise skies will likely remain mostly sunny through the day. MVFR ceilings may develop again overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 1005 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) is likely to prevail tonight into early Thursday afternoon as a tightened pressure gradient results in moderate to fresh southeasterly to southerly winds and moderate (3-5 feet seas), becoming gentle to moderate winds with moderate (3-4 feet) seas later Thursday afternoon into Saturday. A cold front passes through either late Friday night or during the day on Saturday, bringing strong northeasterly to northerly winds, gale or near-gale gusts, and rough seas Saturday into Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory, possibly a Gale Watch/Warning, is anticipated during this timeframe. Conditions improve throughout the beginning of next week though SCEC remains possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 88 69 88 67 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 92 64 90 63 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 95 69 93 67 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 97 65 95 64 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 69 78 68 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 87 66 85 64 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.