textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 610 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Key Messages:

* Unseasonably warm and dry conditions expected through the remainder of the week.

* Heat Risk returns Friday and continues into next week. Heat Advisories could be possible by Monday.

* Low to Moderate (30-40%) rain chances return early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Unseasonably warm temperatures and rain-free conditions are expected over this next week due to the presence of upper level ridging over Texas. Heat Risk will become a concern again starting on Friday. Minor (level 1 of 4) Heat Risk is expected Friday, and this will increase to Moderate (level 2 of 4) for Saturday and Sunday. By Monday and Tuesday, there will be pockets of Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk, and Heat Advisories may be needed for portions of Deep South Texas, particularly east of I-69C.

The next chance for rain will also be Monday, when the atmosphere becomes more unsettled as a surface low develops over northeastern Mexico. Some showers and thunderstorms could form off of the Sierra Madre and make their way into Deep South Texas. As of now, there is a low to moderate (30-40%) chance of precipitation for areas west of I-69C for Monday. Chances will be slightly lower for Tuesday all over the region, but then increase back to 30-40% for all of Deep South Texas.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Generally gentle easterly winds this evening become light and variable overnight. VFR conditions continue as southeasterly winds return tomorrow morning, picking up to around 10-15 knots, with gusts to near 20 knots in the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Favorable conditions are expected the next few days, but winds could increase creating SCEC and possibly Small Craft Advisory conditions by Friday. These could continue through early next week before conditions improve by Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 69 90 74 90 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 64 92 69 91 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 68 95 72 94 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 67 94 70 95 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 83 77 83 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 88 73 88 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.

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