textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1126 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

- Fire weather concerns may return mid to late week as breezy conditions return.

- A warming trend is expected through mid to late week, with high temperatures around 10-20 degrees above normal by Thursday.

- A frontal boundary arrives on Thursday, bringing some relief from the heat for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1126 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

A pleasant afternoon is in store across Deep South Texas as the region remains under the influence of surface high pressure. Expect slightly below normal temperatures for mid to late February, with high temperatures mostly in the low 70s. Calm winds and clear skies will promote another night of efficient radiational cooling processes, allowing temperatures to fall into the mid 40s to low 50s tonight. High pressure is expected to shift east by tomorrow, resulting in the return of low level southerly to southeasterly winds and the start of a warming trend. A locally enhanced pressure gradient along the immediate coast will result in wind speeds ranging from 10-15 MPH with occasionally higher gusts by tomorrow afternoon. Breezy conditions will continue on Wednesday in response to a deepening system over the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles, with wind gusts up to 30 MPH possible throughout the day.

By Thursday, temperatures are expected to be about 10-20 degrees above normal for late February due to compressional warming ahead of a frontal boundary. Highs in the 90s expected region wide, with a few areas west of US-281 expected to warm into the upper 90s. With the passage of the frontal boundary, temperatures should remain in the 80s to low 90s each day Friday through the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR will prevail through the forecast period at all TAF sites. Expect generally light east winds through this evening, before shifting southeast by tomorrow. A locally enhanced pressure gradient will result in breezy winds by the end of the TAF period.

MARINE

Issued at 1126 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Favorable marine conditions will prevail through tomorrow morning across the Gulf as the region remains under the influence of high pressure. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions return tomorrow afternoon along the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters due to a locally enhanced pressure gradient. Winds will remain elevated through at least early Thursday morning, likely reaching Small Craft Advisory criteria by Wednesday. More favorable conditions return by the end of the week and into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 53 77 64 82 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 48 79 59 87 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 52 82 61 92 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 48 82 56 94 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 60 72 66 76 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 53 77 61 82 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.