textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Key Messages:

* Moderate (40-60%) chances of scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two Thursday and Friday, decreasing to low (20-30% for Saturday.

* Rain totals between tomorrow and Saturday should be lower than last weekend, with the most likely amounts ranging between 0.5 to 1.5 inches. 3 inches is possible with locally heavy rainfall.

* Gradual warming is expected into early next week ahead of another approaching system. Conditions could become windier early next week as the pressure gradient tightens.

* Moderate risk of rip currents continues through at least Thursday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

An unstable pattern consisting of a series of small mid to upper level disturbances will continue to support showers and possibly even a few thunderstorms over the next few days. Shower activity is ongoing, and is expected to continue into tomorrow, Friday, and Saturday before the atmosphere better stabilizes and conditions dry out by early next week. The best rain chances of the week will be tomorrow and Friday, where probabilities remain moderate (around 40- 60%).

Short-range CAM guidance indicates that light shower activity (similar to what has been occurring this morning) will persist throughout the CWA through early afternoon tomorrow before heavier showers and possibly even a few thunderstorms form off the Sierra Madres in Mexico and move into the Western portion of the CWA tomorrow evening. For this reason, rain chances are highest (close to 60%) in Starr and Zapata Counties tomorrow afternoon, before increasing to 50-60% overnight for the entire CWA as this lingering convection moves eastward. The Storm Prediction Center continues to keep Deep South Texas under a general thunderstorm risk Thursday and Friday. Though a few thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rain and some gusty winds, nothing severe is expected at this time. The rain is also expected to be beneficial.

Friday looks to be a little more active throughout the earlier part of the day than Thursday, as the last of the stronger disturbance pulses push through the region. Heavier showers with a small thunderstorm or two are possible mid-morning through late afternoon, before shower activity begins to settle down somewhat by Friday evening. Rain chances decrease to below 15% in most areas overnight Friday, with low chances (20-30%) on Saturday. Any precipitation that forms on Saturday will primarily be light and showery, with activity tapering off by evening as more zonal flow resumes and the atmosphere begins to stabilize a little more.

Rain totals over the next few days are not expected to be as significant as they were last weekend due to overall lighter shower activity. According to NBM DESI guidance, the most likely amount that areas of Deep South Texas might see between now and Saturday is between 0.5 and 1.5 inches. However, precipitation totals in areas that receive heavier rainfall could see up to 3 inches, particularly in the western counties of the CWA. Because showers and thunderstorms are expected to be isolated to scattered, some areas may not receive any precipitation at all.

Current NBM guidance suggests that conditions should dry out again Sunday through Tuesday of next week. However, long-range guidance indicate that a Pacific trough will move across the Central/Southern Plains between the middle to latter part of next week. Precipitation chances could trend up again by the middle of next week if this system brings any frontal boundaries towards our area.

Temperatures should remain close to seasonal the next few days, and continue to warm through the middle of next week. Onshore winds will continue through the rest of this week, before turning more southeasterly by the weekend. Wind speeds could also increase going into next week as a pressure gradient sets up ahead of the next approaching system.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Ongoing showers and light rain continue over the area. Conditions are mostly VFR at all airports, but could decrease to MVFR temporarily due to localized rain activity. For this reason, a TEMPO has been added to the TAFs for the next few hours. Conditions should stay VFR through the evening, before ceilings lower to MVFR overnight. Easterly light to moderate winds are expected.

MARINE

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Conditions should stay favorable through the weekend with light to medium winds and low to moderate seas. The exception would be in the vicinity of any heavier rain showers or thunderstorms that happen to form offshore over the next few days. SCEC conditions are possible again by the end of the weekend into early next week as a pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching Pacific trough.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 68 82 69 82 / 10 40 50 60 HARLINGEN 64 83 65 83 / 10 40 50 60 MCALLEN 69 85 69 86 / 10 50 60 60 RIO GRANDE CITY 68 83 67 84 / 20 60 60 60 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 72 77 72 77 / 10 30 60 60 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 68 81 68 82 / 10 40 60 60

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.