textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 540 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

- Patchy to Dense Fog is expected this morning and will clear out by early afternoon with the frontal passage. There is a small chance (15% or less) of a few showers ahead of the front.

- A Fire Danger Statement is in effect from noon to 9 PM Saturday for Zapata, Jim Hogg, and Brooks Counties. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect Sunday for all of Deep South Texas excepting coastal areas.

- Beach and marine hazards are expected to accompany the cold front. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory currently in effect will give way to Small Craft Advisory and possible Gale conditions following the frontal passage. A moderate risk of rip currents is already in place and will likely increase to high this weekend. High surf and minor coastal flooding is possible too.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 958 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Patchy to dense fog is likely to occur overnight into the early morning hours, accompanied by moderate to unhealthy air quality, which should linger through mid-day. A cold front is expected to arrive from the west-northwest by mid-day, which will improve the air quality but bring drier air into the region and increase fire risk through at least Sunday. The latest guidance does show a low chance of a few showers developing ahead of the front throughout the CWA (less then 15% for all areas), but most places should remain dry.

Fire threat is going to be the main hazard to accompany this front. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for Zapata, Jim Hogg, and Brooks Counties Saturday, and a Fire Weather Watch is in effect for all of Deep South Texas (excepting coastal areas) Sunday. Relative humidities are expected to crash behind the front, accompanied by gusty northwesterly winds. In addition, fuels are freeze-cured and portions of our CWA have just entered D4 (exceptional) drought, which is the highest level of drought possible. These dry, cured fuels will enhance the fire threat in addition to the winds and the low relative humidity. See Fire Weather discussion for more information.

Temperatures are expected to decrease to around and just below seasonal levels following the frontal passage. Temperatures should reach the mid-80s on Saturday before the front arrives, and fall into the 70s by the evening. Highs will be in the low 70s for Sunday and Monday. Lows will fall from the mid-60s to the lower 50s for Saturday night and the upper 40s for Sunday and Monday nights. Temperatures will begin to gradually warm throughout next week starting Tuesday as upper-level ridging takes hold over the area. Temperatures in the 90s are possible Thursday before another weak frontal system will lower highs into the mid-80s going into next weekend.

Beach hazards are also ongoing and expected to continue into the weekend. In addition to the morning fog, there is currently a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents at area beaches, which may need to be upgraded over the weekend. High surf and minor coastal flooding is also possible this weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 540 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

MVFR conditions this morning are forecast to become VFR by late morning and remain VFR through the afternoon. A cold front will bring northerly winds this morning, with wind gusts increasing this afternoon. Some minor visibility reductions are forecast to continue into the early afternoon due to haze, though visibilities will likely improve through the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 958 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for the Laguna Madre and the 0-20 nm Gulf waters due to an observed layer of marine fog that is expected to move closer to shore and linger overnight. By mid-day, the front is expected to move through the area, which will push away the fog, but will create hazardous marine conditions. Small Craft Advisory conditions are certain for the Bay and the Gulf Waters, and a Gale Watch is also in effect Saturday evening through Sunday morning. Conditions should remain adverse through Monday afternoon, and may improve Tuesday, but SCEC is still possible. A tightening pressure gradient will increase winds again on Wednesday and Small Craft Advisories may be needed again mid-week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 958 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Much of the CWA remains under D3 drought conditions, with portions of Brooks and Jim Hogg Counties now falling under D4 conditions, which is the highest level of drought possible on the drought monitor. This, combined with the relative humidities, which are expected to rapidly decrease being the front, along with gusty winds creates enhanced fire weather concerns. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for western portions of the Corpus CWA, in effect Saturday afternoon through tomorrow evening, and a Fire Danger Statement has been issued for Zapata, Jim Hogg, and Brooks counties for the same time period.

On Sunday, very dry air will be in place over Deep South Texas with much of the CWA experiencing relative humidities in the low teens. Depending on the areas of highest wind, Red Flag Warnings and/or Fire Danger Statements will be needed too for Sunday. Therefore, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for all of Deep South Texas (excepting coastal areas) for Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening.

There are also fire concerns later this week (Wednesday into Thursday) as another surge of dry air makes its way into the region with elevated winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 85 58 69 49 / 0 10 0 0 HARLINGEN 86 50 70 44 / 10 10 0 0 MCALLEN 88 54 72 48 / 10 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 86 50 73 42 / 10 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 60 65 58 / 10 10 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 55 67 51 / 0 10 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for TXZ248>255-353.

High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Sunday afternoon for TXZ451-454-455.

High Surf Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Sunday for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ130-132-135-150- 155.

Gale Watch from this evening through Sunday morning for GMZ130- 132-135-150-155-170-175.