textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1212 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

- Day-to-day or near day-to-day chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected through next week.

- Heavy rainfall from showers and thunderstorms will be the primary concern this weekend into Tuesday; this could lead to flash flooding, mainly across the mid to lower RGV and lower Texas coast.

- A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect tonight for tidal runup ahead of and after high tide at 222 AM. Life-threatening rip currents are expected by Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed Sunday through Monday across Gulf waters.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

The actual surface front continues to sit north of the CWA, with northerly winds already settled in across Deep South Texas. This will keep rain chances ongoing across the ranchlands and brush country, otherwise, the rest of our attention begins to shift to the coast. A coastal trough and surface low pressure is expected to settle into the lower Texas coast by late this weekend, hanging into mid week, increasing the threat of heavy rainfall along the coastal counties Sunday into Tuesday. Overall, the chance of rain continues into late week, mainly with sea breeze or diurnally driven streamer showers. Expect near to slightly below normal temperatures into late week.

The Weather Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (at least 15 percent chance) for flooding rainfall for areas along and east of US-281/I-69C through tonight, with a Marginal Risk (at least 5 percent chance) for flooding rainfall for locations west, a complete flip from yesterday as the axis of heavier rain shifts east. There remains additional flooding concerns into early Tuesday, mainly along the coast, with a Marginal to Slight Risk Sunday into Monday across most of the Rio Grande Valley and lower Texas coast, and a Marginal Risk along the coast Monday into Tuesday.

The heaviest rainfall amounts will shift towards the coast, with areas west of US-281 generally receiving 1-3 inches of additional rainfall into late Monday, and areas east of US-281 most likely receiving 3-5 inches into Tuesday morning, especially near the coast. Higher end probabilities continue to show a low (10 percent) chance of isolated 5-8 inch rainfall totals across the coastal counties between now and Tuesday, if heavier showers and thunderstorms persist and train across the same locations. As long as it falls over the next three days and not in one afternoon, most locations will easily take the rainfall.

Will continue to monitor beach and marine hazards over the weekend, with a potential for tidal run-up near high tides continuing tonight and an elevated risk of life-threatening rip currents by Sunday into next week. A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for tonight and may need to be issued Sunday night as well.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

VFR to MVFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with occasional bands of showers working inland from the Gulf and breezy northerly winds. IFR ceilings may be possible on Sunday if bands of showers become more persistent across Cameron County especially.

MARINE

Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

A slow-moving frontal boundary, coastal trough, and surface low pressure are expected along the lower Texas coast by the end of the weekend and into early next week. Light to moderate northerly winds continue with Fall-like conditions, a strengthening pressure gradient, and periods of heavy rainfall with reduced visibility becoming more frequent through Monday. Small Craft Advisories may be needed Sunday through Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 76 87 76 86 / 90 90 90 80 HARLINGEN 73 86 72 87 / 90 90 90 80 MCALLEN 76 86 76 88 / 90 80 80 70 RIO GRANDE CITY 73 86 73 87 / 80 80 70 60 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 85 79 85 / 90 90 90 90 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 87 76 86 / 90 90 90 90

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.