textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 613 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

* Hot conditions continue through this week with a Moderate Heat Risk (level 2 of 4) each day. Heat indices will be between 100 and 110 degrees each day.

* Virtually rain free conditions are expected over the next few days, though precipitation chances will increase mid to late week.

* There is generally a Low Risk of rip currents at area beaches likely increasing to moderate late this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1204 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Hot and mostly rain-free conditions will continue into midweek with upper level high pressure over the Four Corners into West Texas in control. Temperatures will remain hot with highs in the mid to upper 90s, and some triple digits in the mid to upper Valley/Rio Grande Plains. Heat indices will generally remain between 100 and 110 degrees with a Moderate Heat Risk for most locations, especially as we get later into the week. Rain chances remain generally under 10% through midweek.

The high pressure will retreat slightly westward mid to late week with an area of weak low pressure/troughing in the Bay of Campeche into Mexico. This will allow for an influx of tropical moisture and increase chances of showers/thunderstorms mid to late week into the weekend. With high PWAT values (over 2 inches) some of this activity could produce heavy rainfall.

There is a low risk of rip currents at area beaches though will likely increase to moderate by this weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 613 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Moderate, occasionally breezy, southeasterly winds of around 15-18 knots, gusting up to 27 knots at KMFE, should continue over the next hour or so and then gradually diminish to gentle within the hours surrounding sunset this evening. VFR conditions are likely to persist through tomorrow with southeasterly winds gradually picking up to around 10-15 knots and gusts to near 20-25 knots by the afternoon hours. There is the potential for brief showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and early evening as well tomorrow, but chances are currently at a low (15-20%) chance, yet could bring brief periods of MVFR.

MARINE

Issued at 1204 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Favorable marine conditons will prevail on the waters off the lower Texas coast. Generally seas of 2-4 feet are expected with 4 to 6 second periods. Isolated showers or thunderstorms could lead to locally higher winds and seas, best chance of this activity will be late week into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 80 95 79 94 / 0 10 10 10 HARLINGEN 77 96 76 96 / 10 10 0 10 MCALLEN 79 100 79 99 / 10 10 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 100 77 100 / 10 10 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 81 88 / 10 10 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 93 78 92 / 10 10 0 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.