textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1243 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures with overall heat risk remaining in the moderate (level 2 of 4) range through the weekend, with some potential for major (level 3 of 4) heat risk early next week.

- Generally rain-free conditions are expected through the period. However, there is a very low rain chance Wednesday and Wednesday night for northern Zapata through northern Brooks County.

- There is a medium risk of life-threatening rip currents through at least Friday, with some improvement over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1027 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Generally rain-free and near to slightly above normal temperatures through early next week. However, low (10-30%)rain chances are expected across the northern ranchlands and near the coast Wednesday and Wednesday night as a mid-level disturbance moves over south central Texas. Uncertainty enters the forecast for early next week as the GFS suggests that a weak 500mb low will track over north- central Mexico and brings a surge of deeper moisture into Deep South Texas Monday into Tuesday. While, the ECMWF builds the mid-level over the region leading to increasing heat during this time. For now, will continue to lean towards the NBM for pops and temperatures.

Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected through the period with highs in the mid to upper 90s, except near the coast. High temperatures will be a few degrees higher by the weekend with several locations, especially near Falcon Lake, reaching the triple digits. Overnight lows generally range from the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. Elevated dewpoints and hot temperatures will lead to heat index values between 100-110 degrees each afternoon. This will maintain mainly a moderate heat risk (level 2 of 4) each day.

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue along the lower Texas beaches through at least mid week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

VFR is expected at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Breezy winds will occur during the daylight hours, with lighter winds at night. Convection cannot be ruled out, but coverage is likely to be isolated and has been kept out of the TAFs for this forecast cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1027 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Generally favorable conditions will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast through the weekend. Moderate southeast winds and low to moderate seas are expected through the period. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will be likely on the Laguna Madre in the afternoon through Friday or Saturday and potential on the Gulf waters Thursday and Friday. There is a low rain chance (10-30%) Wednesday through Thursday over the Gulf waters. Higher winds and seas will be possible with any showers and thunderstorms that develop.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 92 81 93 81 / 10 10 10 0 HARLINGEN 94 78 95 78 / 10 10 10 0 MCALLEN 97 81 98 80 / 10 10 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 97 80 99 79 / 10 10 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 81 88 81 / 10 10 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 80 92 79 / 0 10 10 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.