textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 149 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- Hot, breezy conditions continue. SPS and/or Heat Advisories are likely with "feels like" temps between 105-115 and a Major to Extreme risk of heat related illness.

- Low chance (20% or less) of isolated showers and thunderstorms on Sunday west of US77. Otherwise, rain-free conditions persist.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Ridging will maintain hot and mostly dry conditions, with a widespread Major (and pockets of Extreme) risk of heat-related illness continuing through the weekend. High temperatures in the triple digits will allow for heat indices to rise to 105-115, highest along US77 and in the mid to upper RGV. Overnight low temperatures may break record "high minimum" temperatures through much of the forecast with lows in the mid 70s to near 80, providing little relief from daytime heat. Record high temperatures at the McAllen MFE climate site will be tested this weekend. This enhanced thermal gradient will allow gusty winds to 35 mph to continue each day. Special Weather Statements and/or Heat Advisories are possible each day through Monday.

Upper level ridging slides westward over the Desert SW this weekend, allowing moisture to return. This will give an increase to rain chances Sunday as a weak front stalls over central TX. Widespread rainfall coverage is not expected, but low chance PoPs are in place west of US77. High temperatures in the triple digits (near 100 along coast and near 90 at barrier islands) maintain Major risk of heat- related illness through next week, with rain chances minimal. Coastal troughing may return rain chances at the tail end of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF cycle. Gusty south- southeasterly winds around 25 kts will persist through the afternoon and evening, diminishing overnight. There is a low (30% or less) chance of MVFR ceilings at all sites tonight between 07 and 14Z, with highest chance (30%) at MFE denoted by 025 scattered cloud layer maintained overnight. Southerly winds become gusty again Saturday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Generally moderate winds and slight seas are expected through the period. Gusty winds are possible with an enhanced pressure gradient, which will likely bring Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions each day over the Laguna Madre. There could be brief periods where winds reach low end Small Craft Advisory. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible Sunday afternoon, otherwise, generally dry.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 81 97 81 99 / 0 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 78 101 77 102 / 0 0 0 20 MCALLEN 81 104 81 105 / 0 0 0 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 105 79 104 / 0 0 0 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 89 81 89 / 0 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 97 79 97 / 0 0 0 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.