textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 605 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Key Messages:

* Unseasonably warm and rain-free weather conditions to persist through next week.

* Day-to-day or near day-to-day elevated wildfire weather threat will persist through next week.

* A Fire Danger Statement (RFD) is in effect for Brooks, Hidalgo, Inland Kenedy, Inland Willacy, and Inland Cameron counties from 1- 7 PM CDT Friday (see FIRE WEATHER SECTION for more details).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1036 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Unseasonably warm and rain-free conditions will persist through next week. Driving our weather pattern is a behemoth 594+ dam Sonoran heat dome, which is resulting in a major early season heat wave over the Southwestern U.S. On the eastern flank of this heat ridge, northwesterly winds aloft will stifle any rain chances. High temperatures will range between the upper 80s to the mid 90s each day. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 60s through next week.

Fire weather concerns will remain on the table through next week. The combination of low relative humidity (RH) values, an ongoing drought, and at times breezy conditions will result in day-to-day or near day-to-day elevated fire risks.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

VFR conditions should persist through the TAF period at all TAF sites. Southeasterly winds should be light for most of this morning, but could be more gusty later this morning into the afternoon, with wind gusts up to 25 knots possible. The southeasterly winds will weaken going into the evening. Given the southeasterly flow, it is possible that some low-level or mid- level clouds could move through the region, but skies should be mostly clear.

MARINE

Issued at 1036 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Favorable marine conditions will prevail through next week with low to moderate winds and seas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1036 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

A Fire Danger Statement (RFD) for an elevated fire weather threat has been issued for Brooks, Hidalgo, Inland Kenedy, Inland Willacy, and Inland Cameron counties from 1-7 PM CDT Friday. Breezy south-southeast 20-ft winds 15-20 mph gusting as high as 30 mph are expected to take place on Friday. Meanwhile, minimum relative humidity (RH) values are expected to range between 20-40%. The combination of breezy south-southeast winds, low relative humidity (RH) values, and an ongoing drought ranging between D2 (Severe Drought) to D4 (Exceptional Drought) will result in an elevated risk for wildfires on Friday.

The Texas A&M Forest Service has outlooked much of Deep South Texas under a "High Risk" for wildfire danger on Friday. Additionally, the Energy Release Component (ERC) will be elevated ranging between 75- 95%. Additional Fire Danger Statements many be needed in the days ahead! We continue to urge everyone to practice fire safety.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 85 64 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 89 60 91 61 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 92 65 95 66 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 92 60 95 61 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 68 77 68 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 84 63 85 63 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.