textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1211 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

- Unseasonably warm and rain free conditions are expected through Thursday afternoon with Moderate to Major Heat Risk expected.

- A cold front is expected Friday, which will bring fall-like temperatures to the area and increase rain chances Friday through next week.

- Coastal hazards such as increased rip currents, coastal flooding, and high surf are expected to accompany gusty winds that arrive with the cold front.

- Small Craft Advisory and possibly even Gale conditions are expected over the Bay and the Gulf Friday into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Unseasonably warm and humid weather is expected to continue through the middle of this week as upper level high pressure remains centered off the southeast Texas Coast. Moderate to Major Heat Risk will continue to be a concern this afternoon and tomorrow as heat indices reach as high as 110 degrees in some areas. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 90s with little to no rain through Thursday.

A trough of low pressure is expected to reach the Central-Southern Plains by the end of this week, which is expected to bring a cold front to Deep South Texas by Friday. This cold front is expected to bring more fall-like temperatures to the area, with highs reaching the upper 70s/lower 80s on Saturday. In addition, rain chances are expected to increase Friday afternoon, with a moderate (40-60%) chance throughout all of Deep South Texas. Moderate rain chances will continue Saturday, mainly concentrated to areas east of I-69C. Low (20-30%) chances linger into Sunday for the Lower Rio Grande Valley, and continue into next week as a coastal trough is expected to develop just offshore following the passage of the cold front.

Gusty winds are expected to accompany this front, especially along the coast, which could result in hazards on local beaches such as elevated rip currents, high surf, and potential minor coastal flooding at high tide Friday and Saturday. Conditions should begin to calm again by Sunday into next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected at all airports with scattered clouds and gust southeasterly winds through 00z. Wind gusts should subside this evening.

MARINE

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Intermittent SCEC conditions are expected throughout the week both on the Bay and on the Gulf waters as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching trough. On Friday, a cold front is supposed to reach the area, which will bring Small Craft Advisory conditions and possibly even Gale conditions as wind speeds pick up over all of the waters. Conditions should then improve back to favorable Sunday night into Monday as the winds calm.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 81 92 77 90 / 0 10 0 10 HARLINGEN 77 95 74 93 / 0 10 0 10 MCALLEN 80 98 77 95 / 0 10 0 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 99 76 95 / 0 0 0 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 87 80 86 / 10 10 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 90 76 88 / 0 10 0 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.