textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1116 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

- Brief periods of light rain and/or drizzle continue across Deep South Texas today, followed by a slightly elevated (20-40%) chance tonight, with the best chances along the coast.

- Temperature warm ups and cool downs continue throughout the forecast as several cold fronts pass through, with the first front expected during the day on Sunday.

- High risk of rip currents today becomes a low risk for tonight and tomorrow.

- Adverse marine conditions are likely Sunday evening into Monday behind the passage of the cold front on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1116 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

An active weather pattern continues across the US, bringing a series of cold fronts and varying temperatures to Deep South Texas through this weekend and next week. In the meantime, clouds and chances of light rain or drizzle remain possible throughout this afternoon, with probabilities of precipitation (PoP's) increasing slightly overnight tonight to a low to medium (20-40%) chance across our region, highest along the immediate coast, in response to coastal troughing. Chances decrease throughout tomorrow and PoP's are anticipated to remain below 10% into the remainder of the forecast. Otherwise, ridging takes over on Sunday behind a cold front and additional fronts are possible from mid to late next week as troughs pass north of the County Warning Area.

Mainly overcast skies and cold air advection (CAA) from northerly winds around a surface high pressure over Texas will keep today's high in the mid to upper 60s, which is 10-15 degrees F below average. Return flow starts to set up warm air advection (WAA) tonight into tomorrow as the surface high moves into the eastern CONUS, causing temperatures to rise to near normal tonight and tomorrow, with upper 50s tomorrow morning and 70s tomorrow afternoon. Temperatures continue to warm into the 80s on Sunday ahead of a cold front passing through all of Deep South Texas by possibly early Sunday evening. CAA behind the front cools temperatures back to the 60s on Monday, followed by a gradual warming trend, with mainly 70s on Tuesday rising into the 80s for the remainder of the week, despite brief shifts in winds out of the north with weak cold fronts passing through.

A high risk of rip currents continues today, improving to a low risk for tonight and tomorrow.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Broken to overcast skies continue through tonight, keeping a variation between MVFR ceilings at KBRO and KHRL (around 1,400-1,500 feet) and VFR at KMFE, accompanied by gentle to moderate northerly winds through this afternoon. MVFR, possibly IFR, ceilings return to all terminals tonight along with elevated moisture content, leading to a low to medium (20-40%) chance of light rain or drizzle through tonight, noted in the PROB30's for KHRL and KMFE, as well as light and variable winds. MVFR and VFR skies resume tomorrow morning with gentle winds.

MARINE

Issued at 1116 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Marine conditions continue to improve, expecting gentle to moderate northerly winds and slight to moderate (2-3 feet) seas to resume by this evening, with winds becoming southeasterly to southerly throughout tomorrow evening and night. Winds shift out of the north during the day on Sunday as a cold front moves through the Lower Texas coastal waters. Small Craft Advisory headlines are likely Sunday evening into Monday as fresh to strong northerly winds arrive in the wake of the front, leading to adverse marine conditions with moderate (7 feet or higher) seas anticipated. Winds and seas improve throughout Monday evening into Tuesday as slight to moderate seas and southeasterly to southerly winds return by the middle of next week. Periods of Small Craft Excercise Caution conditions are possible as well.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 64 58 77 65 / 10 20 10 0 HARLINGEN 64 55 76 61 / 10 30 0 0 MCALLEN 66 59 79 64 / 10 30 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 67 55 79 60 / 10 30 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 67 60 73 69 / 10 30 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 66 55 75 63 / 10 30 10 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ451-454- 455.

GM...None.