textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1100 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

- Increasing potential for some localized flooding, favoring the northern ranchlands especially Sunday night. A Flood Watch is in effect for Zapata, Jim Hogg, Starr, and Brooks County for through Monday morning.

- Elsewhere, beneficial rains for most of the Rio Grande Valley, but potential for isolated flash floods continues through Monday morning.

- Surf becoming more dangerous through Monday, with a High Risk of Rip Currents forecast to develop Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Enhanced forcing across Deep South Texas Sunday and Monday will support widespread showers across the area, with some isolated to scattered thunderstorms mixed in. Rainfall accumulations are generally forecast to range from 1 to 3 inches Sunday, with isolated pockets of 4-5 inches possible, primarily across western portions of the CWA. All of Deep South Texas remains under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall Sunday. A Flood Watch is in effect for Starr, Zapata, Brooks, and Jim Hogg counties through Monday morning.

An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain is forecast to occur Monday, with the heaviest rain rates likely to occur Monday morning, with the highest rainfall amounts likely to occur along and west of I-69C. This will continue to support the potential for flash flooding Monday morning. The showers are forecast to shift further east through the day Monday. All of Deep South Texas is under Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall Monday.

Rain chances are forecast to decrease Monday night, with daily low (20-30%) rain chances lingering through Thursday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

VFR to MVFR ceilings are forecast overnight as showers move into the area and begin impacting the TAF sites. MFE has the highest probabilities for MVFR to IFR ceilings through much of the day Sunday, with IFR conditions most likely around sunrise. Widespread showers are forecast through much of the day Sunday, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible mid morning through early afternoon. Gusty easterly to southeasterly winds are forecast through the afternoon and into the evening.

MARINE

Issued at 1100 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Winds and seas are forecast to increase early Sunday morning, likely resulting in adverse to hazardous conditions along the Lower Texas Coast. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headline or Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed Sunday into Monday morning.

Conditions are forecast to begin improving afternoon, with generally favorable winds and seas forecast to continue through the remainder of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 72 81 72 79 / 30 80 50 90 HARLINGEN 70 79 69 78 / 40 80 60 100 MCALLEN 72 82 70 78 / 70 90 90 100 RIO GRANDE CITY 67 77 64 74 / 90 80 100 100 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 79 73 76 / 50 80 50 80 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 80 70 78 / 50 80 50 90

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Monday morning for TXZ248>250-252.

GM...None.