textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1248 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

- Chances of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms drop from a low to medium (20-50%) today to a low (15-20%) chance tomorrow and Monday, followed by lower (at most 15%) chances.

- Heavy rain creating minor nuisance flooding is still possible, with the highest chance this afternoon and evening.

- Highs in the mid/upper 90s along with afternoon heat indices of 100-110 F maintain mostly moderate heat risks (level 2 of 4).

- A medium risk of life-threatening rip currents prevails through tomorrow afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

The inverted trough aloft that has brought brought unsettled weather the past couple of days continues to slowly pull out of deep south Texas from east to west into tonight as a weak high pressure aloft expands across the Gulf. In the meantime, deep tropical Gulf moisture (PWAT values > 2 in.) and weak forcing have already led to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms between I-69 E and US-281, producing heavy rain, lightning and a few gustier winds and dropping around 0.50-0.75 of an inch in spots of Kenedy County. This area of rain is expected to continue shifting west along the seabreeze boundary, increasing chances of rain to a low to medium (20-50%) chance, highest across the Northern Ranchlands and northern Zapata County. The RRFS and a few runs of the HRRR this morning have indicated the potential for some training of cells along or just west of the international border, perhaps as far east as portions of Starr County from late this afternoon into the evening or early nighttime hours. Should this be realized, rainfall amounts of up to an 1.0-1.5 inches, is possible in a few locations over these areas. Wind gusts up to 30-40 mph are not out of the question within the deepest of convection, especially west of US-281, when and where convection runs into higher daytime instability.

Following, subsidence enhances a bit as weak high pressure takes over aloft, cutting chances of rain along the afternoon seabreeze down to a low (15-20%) chance tomorrow across mostly the Northern Ranchlands, expanding to most of the region on Monday; moisture pooling ahead of a trough moving over the Southern Plains could still result in brief periods of heavy rain into the early parts of this upcoming week as southeasterly winds, gusting to 20-25+ mph in the afternoon, continue advecting inland pulses of deeper, Gulf moisture. There is still a chance of rain over northern parts of the CWA around the middle of the week as the trough shifts to the Desert Southwest in addition to increased cloud cover. Otherwise, drier lower/mid levels keeps chances of rain around 10% or less.

High temperatures in the mid 80s at the coast and mid/upper 90s inland continue, peaking as high as near 100 F for portions of the middle RGV and points westward. Although drier relative humidity is expected to slightly ease off afternoon heat indices from 105-110 F to 100-105 F by Tuesday, mainly moderate heat risks are anticipated to prevail into next weekend. Overnight lows in the mid/upper 70s as well as lower 80s along/near the coast continue.

A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through tomorrow afternoon.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Southeasterly winds of around 13-17 knots, gusting to 20-25 knots, continue into the late afternoon or early evening hours today, becoming light and gentle overnight tonight. VFR TAFs are anticipated throughout the 18Z TAFs and although there is a possibility of SHRA/TS this afternoon, confidence and probabilities are too low to include at this time. Amendments are still possible for heavy rain and/or thunderstorms, reduced visibility or lower ceilings.

MARINE

Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Southeasterly winds continue, ranging from moderate to fresh during the day and gentle to moderate overnight along with mainly moderate (3-6 ft) seas. Periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines are possible. A Small Craft Advisory is possible later in this upcoming week as a fetch of heightened seas from a tightened pressure gradient over the Gulf could result in 6-7 ft seas. Low to medium (20-40%) chances of rain drop off to a low (15-30%) chance by Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 80 94 80 94 / 10 10 10 10 HARLINGEN 77 94 77 95 / 0 10 10 20 MCALLEN 79 98 79 98 / 0 10 0 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 98 77 99 / 30 10 10 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 81 88 / 10 10 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 92 79 92 / 0 10 0 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.