textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1215 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

- Low rain chances (15-25%) into early Monday with higher rain chances (45-65%) Monday Night through Tuesday.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected. - Persistent easterly swell will increase the rip current risk along the lower Texas coast and combine with elevated astronomical tides to narrow beaches during high tide cycles. Coastal Flood Statements may be needed.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

A ridge of high pressure along the western Gulf gradually shifts further offshore and south, maintaining near to above normal temperatures, and bringing a more active pattern with increased tropical moisture from the Pacific to Deep South Texas through the end of October. An upper level disturbance swings through Monday night through Tuesday, with the highest chance of rainfall through the forecast period, currently 45-65 percent, mainly along and east of US-281. Isolated to scattered sea breeze and streaming showers or thunderstorms are expected Wednesday, with another disturbance swinging through late Thursday into Friday. Expect drier conditions for Halloween.

Persistent easterly flow across the Gulf increases the threat of rip currents this week and combines with increasing astronomical tides to narrow beaches during high tide cycles each afternoon and evening. Coastal Flood Statements may be needed.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail through the TAF period, with a southeasterly breeze this afternoon. There remains a low chance of a passing shower this afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Easterly onshore flow and increased swell are expected through the week along the lower Texas coast with afternoon winds occasionally approaching Small Craft Caution conditions. A higher chance of showers or thunderstorms arrives with an upper level disturbance Monday night through Tuesday and again Thursday into Friday. A brief Small Craft Advisory may be needed offshore Monday night into Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 70 86 72 86 / 0 20 40 50 HARLINGEN 67 86 68 86 / 0 10 30 60 MCALLEN 69 90 71 89 / 10 10 10 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 67 89 68 89 / 10 0 10 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 79 73 81 / 0 20 70 60 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 83 69 83 / 0 20 60 50

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.