textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1037 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

- Low to medium (20-50%) rain chances will continue this weekend, some locally rainfall is possible.

- There is a moderate risk (level 2 of 4) of heat related illness, with afternoon heat indices 100-110 degrees.

- There is a moderate risk of rip currents through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1037 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Rain chances will continue through the weekend as deep tropical moisture remains in place. The BRO 0Z sounding this evening indicated a precipitable water value of 2.12 inches. The combination of abundant moisture and daytime heating will support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. Rain chances are expected to fade Saturday night with some additional convection possible over the coastal waters. With precipitable water values over 2 inches, any showers and thunderstorms could lead to locally heavy rainfall. An isolated 1 to 2 inches of rainfall cannot be ruled out, especially with any slower moving convection. In addition to heavy rainfall, some stronger storms could produce gusty winds and small hail.

Rain chances are expected to end Sunday night as mid-level ridging builds into the region. Near normal temperatures are forecast to continue through late next week with highs generally in 90s. Afternoon heat indices will range between 100-110 degrees through the forecast period.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Moderate to gusty southeast winds with a few cumulus clouds prevail across Deep South Texas early this evening. Winds will continue to decrease later this evening and overnight. South to southeast winds are expected to increase and become gusty late Saturday morning with gusts up to 25 knots in the afternoon. Another round of isolated to scattered convection will be possible on Saturday. A mix of VFR/MVFR conditions will continue at all terminals for the next 24 hours.

MARINE

Issued at 1037 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Favorable conditions will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast through late next week. Generally moderate southeast winds and low to moderate seas are expected through the period. However, can not rule out a brief period of Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines in the afternoon. A low to medium rain chance (20-40%) will continue through the weekend. Higher winds and seas will be possible with any showers and thunderstorms that develop. Rain chances fade Sunday night as high pressure builds into the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 92 80 94 81 / 50 20 20 10 HARLINGEN 93 77 95 78 / 50 0 20 10 MCALLEN 95 80 98 80 / 60 0 20 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 96 78 98 78 / 40 10 40 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 81 88 82 / 60 30 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 91 79 92 80 / 60 20 10 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.