textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 445 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

- Windy conditions will lead to fire weather concerns through Wednesday, and possibly into Thursday.

- Near record to record-breaking high temperatures are forecast for Thursday across most of Deep South Texas.

- Hazardous marine/coastal conditions expected through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 106 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Spring-like conditions will continue across Deep South Texas through early next week with minimal precipitation chances, well above normal temperatures, and breezy afternoons. A tight pressure gradient is in place this afternoon as the region remains sandwiched between an area of low pressure translating along the Red River and high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf. This will maintain breezy southerly winds, particularly along/east of US-281 and over the Gulf waters through at least early tomorrow morning. A Wind Advisory is currently in effect through 6 PM this evening as wind gusts up to 45 MPH cannot be ruled out with daytime mixing. Wind speeds should weaken below advisory criteria this evening, but will likely remain elevated with wind gusts around 20-25 MPH continuing tonight. In combination with warm temperatures, low humidity, cured fuels, and antecedent conditions, a Red Flag Warning is also in effect though 6 PM this evening. More details can be found in the Fire Weather section below.

A weak cold front, associated with the aforementioned low pressure system, will approach Deep South Texas tomorrow from west to east, likely during the late evening and overnight hours tomorrow. Compressional warming ahead of the frontal boundary will result in an unseasonably hot day, especially for late February standards, particularly along and west of US-281 with temperatures 15-20 degrees above normal. Probabilistic guidance indicates theres a low to medium chance (20-50%) of high temperatures reaching the triple digits across Hidalgo, Brooks, Starr, Jim Hogg, and Zapata counties. It will still be quite warm along the immediate coast, with highs in the low to mid 90s, which is around 10-15 degrees above normal for late February. Unfortunately, the passage of the weak front wont provide much relief from the heat, and above normal temperatures will continue into the weekend and early next week. Highs each day will range from the mid to upper 80s along the immediate coast and low 90s further inland, with lows mostly in the 60s.

New daily record highs or ties cannot be ruled out tomorrow, February 26th. The forecast high at Brownsville is 90 degrees (Record: 90 degrees, 1971), Harlingen is 94 degrees (Record: 95 degrees, 1913), and McAllen is 99 degrees (Record: 97 degrees, 1962). The last 100 degree day at McAllen was October 19, 2025.

There are some indications among long range guidance that low precipitation chances may return by the middle of next week or late week across portions of the region. This is also highlighted by CPCs Day 6-10 and Day 8-14 precipitation outlook, with a 40-60% probability of above normal precipitation across Deep South Texas. Fingers crossed!

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 445 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Through 00z Friday....VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 00z TAF cycle under mainly clear skies.

Southerly winds will prevail through the forecast period with speeds between 5-15 kts and gusts as high as 25-30 kts.

MARINE

Issued at 106 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

An enhanced pressure gradient along the immediate coast will maintain strong southerly winds and building seas across the Gulf waters and Laguna Madre. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect along the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters through early Thursday morning, with Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions likely through Thursday evening as winds remain slightly elevated. A weak cold front will approach late Thursday into early Friday, with winds becoming lighter and shifting to the north and northeast. Favorable marine conditions return this weekend and continue into early next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 106 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 6 PM this afternoon for inland Cameron, Hidalgo, inland Willacy, inland Kenedy and Brooks counties. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect through 6 PM this afternoon for Zapata, Jim Hogg, and Starr counties.

The combination of low afternoon relative humidity, gusty southerly to southeasterly winds, cured fuels, and antecedent conditions will result in elevated fire weather concerns across most of Deep South Texas. Afternoon relative humidity will range from 15-25 percent across the Northern Ranchlands to around 40-50 percent along the immediate coast. A tightening pressure gradient will result in wind gusts up to 45 MPH expected through late this afternoon along the immediate coast. Winds should remain slightly lower west of US-281, although occasional 20-foot winds near or just below 15 MPH cannot be ruled out. Despite the passage of a weak cold front on Thursday, lower wind speeds should limit rapid fire spread.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 67 88 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 62 94 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 64 99 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 59 101 62 92 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 67 79 67 76 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 64 88 63 82 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ250-251- 253>255-353.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ251-254-255-351- 354-355.

High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for TXZ451-454- 455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175.