textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1200 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

- Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions continue through this afternoon. Additional fire weather concerns return mid to late week.

- Dangerous beach and marine conditions continue through Monday morning, with life-threatening rip currents, dangerous high waves in the surf, and minor coastal flooding or runup.

- Below average temperatures through Monday night become above average on Tuesday and onward.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Gusty winds stick around today with a tight pressure gradient between high pressure to our north and the passed cold front to our southeast, diminishing overnight. Dry weather is forecast for much of the period with primarily southerly flow at the surface and northwesterly flow aloft with ridging to the east. Fire weather concerns remain the main hazard for much of the forecast period. More information in the Fire Weather discussion below.

Overnight, flow becomes more easterly, returning a bit of moisture and lowering fire weather concerns for early this week. Winds become southerly through early week, allowing temperatures to steadily increase through midweek, but limiting moisture. This paired with a dry boundary crossing the region will raise concerns for fire weather mid to late week.

Below normal high temperatures today and tomorrow approach normal Tuesday, before returning to above normal Wednesday. Tonight will be the coolest night of the forecast, with widespread 40s across the Ranchlands and RGV (around 50 near the coast).

Along the lower Texas coast, strong winds and elevated seas are maintaining hazardous beach conditions. There remains a High Risk of life-threatening rip currents and a High Surf Advisory for seas 4-7 feet in place through Sunday into Monday morning. There is a chance for minor coastal flooding around high tide with runup on narrow beaches.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the 18Z cycle. Gusty northerly winds (around 30 kts) will persist through the afternoon, diminishing this evening. Winds begin to shift easterly overnight, becoming southerly Monday.

MARINE

Issued at 1200 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Unfavorable marine conditions continue tonight with rough seas and fresh to strong northerly winds. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Laguna Madre until 6 PM this evening, and all lower Texas Gulf waters through 6 AM Monday due to elevated seas. Tonight, winds diminish, becoming moderate and onshore/southeasterly Monday, and seas decrease to moderate. Headline-free conditions are brief Monday and Tuesday before an approaching frontal boundary midweek tightens the pressure gradient and brings back fresh to strong southerly flow. By Tuesday night, Small Craft Exercise Cautions likely return, with Small Craft Advisory possible through late this week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1200 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

A Red Flag Warning is in effect through 6 PM today for inland Deep South Texas, excluding Zapata County, which is under a Fire Danger Statement. In Zapata County this morning, winds have been briefly gusty at the surface to 20 mph, which is being watched closely in case an upgrade to Red Flag Warning is necessary. Elsewhere, northerly winds at 15- 20 mph gusting around 25-30 mph will diminish this evening into overnight from west to east. Continued dry air advection today will lower RH values as low as 10% in Zapata County, the teens in NW Ranchlands and Rio Grande Plains, and 20-30% along the US-77 corridor this afternoon.

Refrain from outdoor burning and exercise caution around flames. Ongoing drought and abundant freeze-cured fuels continue to make our region susceptible to catching and rapidly spreading wildfires.

Diminished winds shifting easterly briefly lowers fire weather concerns early this week. Minimum RH values struggle to recover, ranging between 20-40%, generally less than 30% west of US-281. Despite decreased winds, this is not ideal with the current D2-D4 (severe to exceptional) drought conditions. This may warrant Fire Danger Statements on Monday and Tuesday. A dry front mid to late week elevating winds could bring further fire weather concerns Tuesday onward.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 48 70 54 76 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 44 72 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 48 75 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 43 74 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 59 66 59 72 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 51 69 54 76 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ249>255-353.

High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ451-454-455.

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ130-132- 135.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ150-155-170- 175.