textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 103 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Key Messages:

- Low rain chances are expected through Monday, with low to moderate chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Temperatures will increase through the week with most of the region in the mid to upper 90s by late week.

- A moderate risk of rip currents continues into Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 103 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

As mentioned in the previous forecast there has been a shift to drier conditions through Monday as the atmosphere has become a bit more stable. With that said SPC still has us under a general risk of thunderstorms. Chances range from 10 to 25% today with the higher chances in Kenedy, Willacy, Cameron, and Hidalgo counties. While we are not anticipating severe weather at this time, some CAMs do have some isolated activity developing this afternoon in the aforementioned areas. With the afternoon heating and destabilization, we cannot rule out an isolated strong/severe thunderstorm. Main threats with any convection that develops will be gusty winds and heavy rain. PWAT values on the this mornings BRO Sounding were at 1.91 inches, still well above normal so any thunderstorms could produce heavy rainfall leading to localized ponding of water on roadways and poor drainage areas. Monday rain chances fall to 15% or less.

Tuesday, rain chances once again will increase as an upper level trough moves into West Texas. With plenty of moisture to work with and upper level divergence, chances for thunderstorms and heavy rain return. The Weather Prediction Center has Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, Willacy, Star and Hidalgo counties under a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall Tuesday and Tuesday night. Wednesday we still will see and increased chance of Excessive Rainfall over Kenedy, Willacy, Brooks, Cameron, Hidalgo, and Jim Hogg counties. While drier conditions return Thursday and Friday, there will be a low chance sea breeze shower/thunderstorms.

Temperatures will continue to climb this week with all of Deep South Texas (except for along the coast) will be in the mid to upper 90s.

Will maintain a moderate risk of rip currents are area beaches into Monday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. HRL will see slightly lowered visibilities and MVFR conditions around daybreak on Monday. Light to moderate northerly winds will continue into Monday. A few isolated thunderstorms or showers will be possible through this afternoon but confidence is too low to include in the TAF forecast. If any activity moves over the airports brief lowered visibility, cloud to ground lightning, and brief heavy rain will be possible.

MARINE

Issued at 103 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Favorable conditions will prevail on the waters off the lower texas coast this week. Could see some caution conditions on Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Generally seas of 2 to 4 feet are expected with 6 to 7 second periods. Any showers or thunderstorms that develop could lead to locally enhanced winds and seas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 75 89 76 91 / 10 20 0 10 HARLINGEN 71 88 72 91 / 10 10 0 20 MCALLEN 73 90 75 92 / 10 10 0 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 71 91 73 92 / 10 10 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 83 79 85 / 10 10 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 75 86 75 89 / 10 10 0 20

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.