textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1128 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

- Rain-free conditions and summer like temperatures are expected for most of the forecast period.

- A weak cold front will move through this evening. Fire weather conditions will be monitored. - A Wind Advisory has been issued for Inland and Coastal portions of Cameron, Willacy, and Kenedy counties until 4 PM. - Adverse beach and marine conditions are expected through tomorrow afternoon, including an increasing risk of life- threatening rip currents and Small Craft Advisories.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1128 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Currently there is a Wind Advisory in effect for Inland and Coastal Cameron, Willacy, and Kenedy counties until 4 PM this afternoon. Wind gusts in the area have been gusting around 40 to 45 mph. However, by this evening the winds are expected to weaken, as a weak cold front moves through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. While the temperature change behind the front is not expected to be large, the highs should come down a few degrees for the next couple of days.

While the cold front is expected to bring in plenty of dry air that will reduce the minimum relative humidity to around 25% in the Northern Ranchlands and Upper Valley. The 20-foot winds are expected to remain generally light, thus currently limiting the concerns for fire weather at this time. It will still be important to keep an eye on the observations just in case the winds are a bit higher than the models currently have as a precaution.

For the rest of the forecast period, a warming trend over the area will pick back up starting next week in which the high temperatures will climb back up to nearly summer like values with highs in the mid 90s to upper 80s. Rain free conditions are also expected due to the influence of a mid-level ridge over the area.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the majority of the forecast period at all TAF sites. Gusty southerly winds are expected to continue for the next several hours with some of those wind gusts around 40 knots for BRO and HRL. Winds should weaken this evening as a weak cold front moves through the region. Winds are expected to become mostly out of the north and should become light for the period. Some of the models do hint at some MVFR conditions occurring during the overnight hours at BRO and HRL as some low- level clouds move over the region.

MARINE

Issued at 1128 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through 6 PM this evening due to the hazardous conditions ongoing in the Gulf waters. While right after the advisory expires, there could still be some adverse conditions, but those are not expected to last long before more favorable conditions take over. While the period should mostly be favorable, there could be some periods of adverse conditions that could flare up over the Gulf waters during the afternoon especially during the later part of the work week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 62 85 56 82 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 57 87 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 61 88 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 58 87 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 64 74 63 72 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 59 81 56 77 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Wind Advisory until 4 PM CST this afternoon for TXZ251-254-255- 351-354-355.

High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ451-454- 455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ130-132- 135-150-155-170-175.