textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 628 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Key Messages:

- A Fire Danger Statement continues through this evening following a frontal passage.

- A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through 06z tonight for both the Bay and the Gulf waters. There is also a moderate risk of rip currents tonight at area beaches.

- A warming trend starts tomorrow through the weekend, with record highs possible on Sunday.

- A strong cold front is expected Sunday night into Monday, which will bring below-seasonal temperatures and fire, marine, and beach hazards to the region. No precipitation is expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A Fire Danger Statement is in effect through this evening for the central and eastern counties of the CWA following the frontal passage. Elevated wind speeds and lower humidity combined with drought conditions will make it easier for fires to catch and spread. Outdoor burning is not recommended today. Winds should become calmer tonight. There is also a moderate risk of life- threatening rip currents tonight associated with the lingering wind.

Low temperatures will be in the upper 40s and 50s tonight, and then a warming trend commences that will last through the weekend. By Sunday, some areas in the central portion of the CWA could see temperatures as high as 100 degrees. Unfortunately, no rain is expected.

Sunday night into Monday, a strong cold front is expected to arrive associated with a trough coming off the Rockies, which will lower daytime high temperatures below seasonal normals to the upper 60s/lower 70s. Low temperatures Monday night will be in the mid- 40s. Tuesday will be about 5 degrees warmer, and then highs should reach the mid-80s again by the end of next week. No precipitation is expected to accompany this cold front, but fire weather along with marine and beach hazards will be a concern.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to continue through the period. Winds will likely become light and variable or calm overnight, with light southeasterly winds returning Friday afternoon. Skies are forecast to remain clear to mostly clear through the period.

MARINE

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 06z tonight. From there, conditions should improve to favorable Friday into Saturday. Saturday night, the pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching system, which will increase wind speeds and make SCEC conditions possible again. On Monday, Small Craft Advisory and/or possibly even Gale force winds are possible due to the passage of a strong cold front. Conditions should return to favorable again by Tuesday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 51 82 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 48 84 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 51 87 63 94 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 47 86 58 94 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 60 73 66 78 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 53 79 61 84 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ451-454- 455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175.