textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1110 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

- A cold front is expected early Saturday morning which will increase marine and beach hazards, and elevate fire conditions Saturday afternoon. There is a 30-50% chance of showers east of I-69C tomorrow.

- The coldest temperatures of the season are expected Sunday morning. Temperatures could approach and even briefly hit freezing in the Northern Ranchlands around sunrise Sunday.

- Another frontal system may approach the area mid-next week, but there is uncertainty. If this front stalls, we could have elevated rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1110 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

A deep upper level trough over the eastern US will support a cold front moving south through Deep South Texas tonight. This front will bring cooler temperatures to the area this weekend, as well as low to moderate rain chances Saturday. Agreement between models has increased over the past several runs, increasing confidence in the temperature forecast this weekend. High temperatures Saturday and Sunday will likely remain in the 60s across the area. Low temperatures Saturday night / Sunday morning will likely range from the low 30s in the northwestern portions of the CWA to the low 40s in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Temperatures may briefly drop below freezing Sunday morning across portions of Zapata, Brooks, and Jim Hogg counties.

Gusty northeasterly winds over the Gulf waters this weekend will likely lead to hazardous beach conditions this weekend. Increased rip current strength and activity, as well as increased surf height will likely warrant a High Surf Advisory and High Risk of Rip Currents statement this weekend.

Gusty northeasterly winds and dry air in the wake of the front will present an elevated risk for erratic wildfire behavior Saturday afternoon.

Southeasterly winds look to return to the area Sunday evening, allowing for gradually warmer temperatures next week. High temperatures will likely return to the 70s Monday and may reach into the low 80s by the later half of the week.

A shortwave trough moving across the southern US and Northern Mexico midweek will likely bring another chance of rain to the area Tuesday and Wednesday, with rain chances increasing to around 30-40%. Another cold front may approach the area near the end of the forecast, though confidence in the timing and southern extent of this front remains low.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1110 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

MVFR to IFR ceilings will likely develop at BRO tonight, while HRL and MFE will likely remain VFR tonight. Light southeasterly winds will shift to the northeast early Saturday morning as a cold front moves through the area, with wind speeds increasing and becoming gusty late morning. Rain chances increase late morning into the early afternoon, with light rain possibly producing MVFR visibilities and ceilings. VFR conditions will likely return by Saturday evening.

MARINE

Issued at 1110 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 5 AM Saturday until 9 AM Sunday for the Gulf waters and the Laguna Madre. Strong northeasterly winds in the wake of the cold front Saturday morning will likely build seas to 7-10 feet Saturday. Winds and seas will begin to subside Sunday, though a Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headline will likely be needed after the Small Craft Advisory expires. Generally favorable conditions are forecast to return by Monday. Another round of adverse marine conditions may be possible midweek.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1110 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

The combination of dry air and gusty northeasterly winds in the wake of the cold front Saturday will pose an elevated risk for fire weather across northern portions of the CWA. Confidence is high for afternoon relative humidity values ranging from 15-25 % for portions of Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks and Inland Kenedy counties. 20 foot wind speeds will likely be borderline Fire Danger Statement criteria across much of this area, though gusts above criteria will be likely through the afternoon. Additionally, dry fuels in the area will further support the potential for elevated fire weather Saturday. Given these factors, a Fire Danger Statement is in effect from noon until 6 PM Saturday.

While relative humidity values look to be lower Sunday, confidence is higher in wind speeds remaining below criteria, so a Fire Danger Statement likely wont be needed.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 59 66 46 64 / 0 40 30 0 HARLINGEN 54 66 38 64 / 0 30 20 0 MCALLEN 54 66 41 66 / 0 30 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 50 66 36 65 / 0 20 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 62 66 54 61 / 10 50 40 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 57 67 47 63 / 0 40 30 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.