textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 531 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

- Arctic airmass over the region results in temperatures 20-25 degrees F below normal tonight through Monday night, with overnight subfreezing temperatures possibly resulting in record lows being met, or broken, tonight and Monday night. - A Freeze Warning is in effect until 10 AM Tuesday for all of inland Deep South Texas, except for the barrier islands, and an Extreme Cold Warning goes into effect from 3 AM (late tonight) to 8 AM Monday across the entire region.

- Another Freeze Warning is likely Monday night as well as an Extreme Cold Warning and/or Cold Weather Advisory.

- Gradual warmup Monday into Thursday, with near average temperatures possible Thursday and Thursday night, before another possible cold front arrives either Thursday night or Friday with chances of rain increasing due to a potential developing coastal low.

- Northerly winds behind possible front and coastal low may advect well below average, possibly subfreezing temperatures, once again over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1032 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

West-southwest winds aloft become zonal on Monday as the tail end of the trough extending into the eastern CONUS, responsible for the large and powerful winter storm impacting the East Coast, finally begins to move out of the Southern Plains. Mid-level ridging building over the West Coast and the Desert Southwest maintains mainly clear skies along with northerly winds tonight into Tuesday morning as the 1030-1040 mb Arctic surface high pressure continues over northern Texas. Winds briefly turn out of the east/southeast Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night as the surface high moves into the Deep South ahead of a mid-level shortwave riding over the ridge into the Desert Southwest, moving southeastward into central and southern Texas into Wednesday morning. This could lead to a low (15%) chance of light rain showers near/along the coast Wednesday morning. Ridging, northerly winds and clearing skies resume by Wednesday afternoon as another surface high builds again across north Texas in wake of the shortwave, turning winds northeasterly Wednesday night and easterly/southeasterly Thursday as the high shifts to the Deep South. However, clouds build and winds turn southeasterly throughout the day Thursday ahead of another potential mid-level trough pushing southeastward into the Desert Southwest. Chances of rain could increase Thursday night to as much as a low to medium (20-40%) chance on Friday, highest along the coast, as the shortwave approaches and a potential coastal low develops along the associated cold front, possibly passing through Thursday night or Friday, shifting winds back out of the north. Chances of rain gradually decrease from north to south Friday night and over the weekend as the low pulls away to the south.

A Freeze Warning is in effect for all of inland Deep South Texas (minus the islands) until 10 AM Monday morning as overnight/early morning lows minimize in the low/mid 20s across the Northern Ranchlands, mid/upper 20s across the Rio Grande Valley as well as 30s along/near the Lower Texas coastline, which is 20-25 degrees F below normal. Record low temperatures could be met or broken across the Rio Grande Valley. In addition to sub-freezing temperatures, as northerly winds of around 10-15 mph, gusting to 15-20 mph or higher, continue overnight, an Extreme Cold Warning goes into effect across the entire region from 3 AM Monday morning/late tonight until 8 AM Monday morning as apparent/"real feel" temperatures dip into the teens inland and 20s along/near the coast. Portions of the Northern Ranchlands may feel as cold as 9 or 10 degrees F during the hours surrounding sunrise Monday morning.

Freeze Warnings are likely again Monday night/Tuesday morning as temperatures fall back to similar values as tonight, perhaps even a touch colder across the Northern Ranchlands and Rio Grande Plains. Record low temperatures could once again be met or broken across the Rio Grande Valley. Although calmer winds are anticipated Monday night, apparent temperatures may fall back to near or below 15 degrees F across the Northern Ranchlands and the Rio Grande Plains while portions, or all, of the Rio Grande Valley could fall to near or below 20 degrees F, which would warrant another Extreme Cold Warning. However, guidance is currently inconsistent as the SREF indicates a 40%, at best, of either scenario occurring while other guidance is warmer. Otherwise, A Cold Weather Advisory would suffice across inland Deep South Texas. Apparent temperatures in the upper 30s along/near the coast will likely not result in either.

In general, daytime high temperatures warm Monday into Thursday with: 40s/50s on Monday, 50s/60s on Tuesday, low/mid 60s on Wednesday and 60s/70s on Thursday. Overnight lows in the 30s/40s continue Tuesday and Wednesday night, with only a 30% chance of temperatures colder than 32 degrees F in the Northern Ranchlands Tuesday night, according to the NBM (other guidance is warmer). Thursday night lows may fall to the 40s/50s. Thursday and Thursday night may be the only time periods with near normal temperatures, within 5 degrees F or so. Following, cold air advection from northerly winds on the backside of the potential coastal low drop temperatures again Friday and into the weekend, with subfreezing temperatures possible again.

Due to strong northerly winds over the Gulf, a High Surf Advisory (for waves of 6 ft or higher) and a High Risk of Rip Currents continue until 6 PM Monday evening.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 531 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Clear skies with northerly winds between 10 to 15 knots prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Northwest to north winds are expected to increase with gusts up 25 knots around mid- morning. Winds will gradually decrease late this afternoon into the evening hours. VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours.

MARINE

Issued at 1032 PM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

A Small Craft Advisory continues until 9 PM Monday night as strong northerly winds of 15-25 knots, gusting to 30 knots, continue with moderate to rough (7-12 feet) seas. Winds and seas improve throughout the remainder of Monday night into Tuesday, becoming gentle and out of the east by Tuesday evening along with slight (1-2 feet) seas. Chances of rain increase late Tuesday night to a low (15- 30%) chance Wednesday morning along with moderate northerly winds and slight to moderate (2-3 feet) seas. Chances of rain decrease Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night and gentle winds out of the east return by Thursday with slight seas. Winds and chances of rain increase Thursday into Friday along with roughening seas as a potential coastal develops. Small Craft Advisories and/or Small Craft Exercise Caution are possible.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 48 31 62 49 / 0 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 48 29 61 44 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 51 32 62 46 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 52 25 61 36 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 50 45 61 55 / 0 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 49 36 61 49 / 0 0 0 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Freeze Warning until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ248>255-351- 353>355.

Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Tuesday for TXZ248>255-351-353>355.

Extreme Cold Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for TXZ248>255- 351-353>355-451-454-455.

High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ451-454-455.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ451-454- 455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ130-132- 135-150-155-170-175.