textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 522 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

- Low chances (around 20%) of rain Tuesday.

- Above normal high temperatures into the upper 80s and lower 90s this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1113 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Generally pleasant conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. High temperatures are expected to remain above average for this time of year with highs in the upper 80s possible each day due the the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south of the region. While closer to the weekend some places in the Upper Valley could even tip toe into the lower 90s. Rain chances are low (around 20%) for Tuesday into Wednesday with a mid- level trough moving to the north of the area. As for the rest of the period rain chances remain very low (less than 10%).

Another round of fog is possible tonight as the clear skies and weak winds will provide a favorable environment for fog. The SREF model currently highlights the Northern Ranchlands for the best chances for the development of fog with a medium chance (around 50%) for tonight. Areas along the coast have a low chance (around 20%) for the development of fog overnight.

Models do indicate that a cold front is expected to push through the region sometime during the weekend. While this front is not expected to bring much in terms of rainfall chances or much in temperature changes. The dry air behind the front along with potential for elevated winds could result in some fire weather concerns. However given the current time frame for this event, there are changes in the forecast that could still occur and it will be important to keep an eye on the model trends to see how this event unfolds.

Lastly, along the coast, while the risk of rip current is currently low and is expected to be low through Monday. By this evening, an increase in swells and winds over the Gulf waters will lead to an elevated risk of rip currents becoming more likely.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 522 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Through 00z Wednesday.....VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 00z TAF cycle.

Southerly winds 12-18 kts this evening with some occasional gusts up to 20-25 kts will diminish tonight with speeds between 7-12 kts. Tuesday will be windy with southerly winds 15-25 kts gusting as high as 30 kts or so.

MARINE

Issued at 1113 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Generally favorable conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast period for the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters with light to moderate southeasterly winds and low to moderate seas. Some Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are possible for brief periods of times during the afternoons especially towards the end of the forecast period. Could see some showers occur over the Gulf waters Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 63 81 64 82 / 0 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 58 83 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 63 86 65 86 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 59 87 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 65 73 65 73 / 0 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 60 79 61 79 / 0 0 0 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.