textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1007 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Key Messages:

* Persistent chance of rain, with the greatest threat for precipitation on Thursday.

* Above normal daytime highs and overnight lows, with a Moderate to Major heat risk.

* A Moderate to High risk of rip currents at the local beaches.

* Small Craft Should Exercise Caution to Small Craft Advisory conditions for mariners.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1007 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Increasingly unsettled weather will occur during the forecast period. First, deepening and persistent mid-level troughiness over the western United States will allow a 500 mb flow from the southwest to northeast to form and linger over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, especially from Sunday through Wednesday. This will allow convection to develop over the neighboring higher terrain of Mexico daily, which will then have the potential to move into the BRO CWFA. Then, on Thursday, the approach of a weak cold front will pool moisture and produce and even greater chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Temperature-wise, despite the persistent rain chances, well above normal daytime highs and overnight lows are anticipated. A Moderate to Major heat risk will occur almost daily, with the exception of Thursday, when a Minor heat risk is forecast due to the more widespread rain chances and associated cloud cover.

Finally, with elevated seas along the Lower Texas Coast, a Moderate to High risk of rip currents is likely for the local beaches.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Primarily VFR conditions, with brief MVFR possible this morning as clouds at 020-050 move offshore. Southeasterly winds become gusty later this morning to around 30 kts. Winds lessen some overnight before MVFR cigs move in early Sunday.

MARINE

Issued at 1007 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

An enhanced pressure gradient along the Lower Texas Coast will create Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and Small Craft Advisory conditions through the forecast period. The most likely period for Small Craft Advisory conditions, especially in regards to seas, will be in the Monday through Tuesday time frame.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 91 80 93 81 / 10 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 93 78 94 80 / 0 0 10 0 MCALLEN 95 80 96 81 / 0 0 10 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 97 78 98 79 / 0 0 10 30 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 84 81 85 81 / 10 0 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 79 91 81 / 0 0 10 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ130-132-135-150-155.