textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 523 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

* Rain-free and mainly tranquil weather conditions will persist through the middle parts of next week.

* A cold front will lower temperatures Wednesday through Thursday.

* A Fire Danger Statement (RFD) is in effect from 10 AM CST to 6 PM CST Wednesday (see FIRE WEATHER SECTION for more details).

* Adverse to hazardous marine conditions are expected to develop Wednesday through Thursday as well (see MARINE SECTION for more details).

* Temperatures rebound Friday through the middle parts of next week with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Rain-free and mostly tranquil weather conditions with overall warmer than normal temperatures are progged to prevail through the forecast period or through the middle parts of next week.

Latest sfc obs/analysis this evening shows a southeastward advancing cold front over South Texas. This cold front is connected to a highly amplified 500 mb pattern, featuring an anomalously strong 585 dam ridge over the western U.S. and downstream troughing over the eastern U.S. This cold front is expected to sweep through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley late tonight into Wednesday morning. A major airmass change nor freezing temperatures is not anticipated given the lack of a cross-polar flow and instead a track over shallower cold regions.

However, the combination of breezy north-northeast winds 10-20 mph gusting between 25-35 mph, dry antecedent conditions, low relative humidity (RH) values ranging between 20-45% will result in an elevated risk for fire weather across much of the region on Wednesday. As a result, A Fire Danger Statement (RFD) is in effect for all of Deep South Texas with the exception of the coastal and island counties from 10 AM CST to 6 PM CST Wednesday (see FIRE WEATHER SECTION for more details).

High temperatures will likely be achieved early in the day on Wednesday (and near seasonable levels) as temps are expected to fall during the day following the cold fropa. Thursday will be the only day during the forecast period of cooler than normal temperatures (with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s) as the cooler airmass/cold air advection (CAA) regime will fully be in place over the region.

A warming trend quickly resumes Friday into the weekend as winds return out of the south. Friday through the middle parts of next week, high temperatures will be in the upper 70s near the coast to the mid 80s most places. Overnight low temperatures will mainly be in the 50s/60s through the forecast period, with the exception of Wednesday night through Friday night where 30s/40s are expected over much of the region.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 523 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected to generally prevail through the TAF period with gusty northerly winds arriving by late this morning, behind a dry cold front.

MARINE

Issued at 1100 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Adverse to hazardous marine conditions are expected to develop on Wednesday in response to a cold fropa. These conditions will persist into Thursday before improving Thursday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Laguna Madre and the Gulf Waters from 9am Wednesday to 9am Thursday. Favorable marine conditions with low to moderate winds and seas are expected Thursday evening through the remainder of the forecast period or through the middle parts of next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1100 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Following the cold fropa early Wednesday, the combination of breezy north-northeast winds 10-20 mph gusting between 25-35 mph, dry antecedent conditions (i.e. D2-Severe to D3-Extreme Drought mainly along and west of IH-69C and D0-Abnormally Dry to D1 Moderate Drought east of IH-69C), low relative humidity (RH) values ranging between 20-45% will result in an elevated risk for fire weather across much of the region on Wednesday. As a result, A Fire Danger Statement (RFD) is in effect for all of Deep South Texas with the exception of the coastal and island counties from 10 AM CST to 6 PM CST Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 72 49 69 45 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 71 44 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 74 46 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 75 42 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 67 56 63 53 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 50 66 45 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM CST Thursday for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.