textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 521 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

* First Arctic cold front of 2026 is currently pushing through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. No frozen precipitation is expected currently.

* The coldest air arrives tomorrow night into Tuesday morning, with freezing temperatures and extreme wind chills expected both Monday and Tuesday mornings.

* A Freeze Warning and Extreme Cold Warning have been issued for tomorrow night. Plan to protect people, pets, plants, and pipes and limit exposure to all for multiple days. Please refer to www.weather.gov/safety/cold for tips on how to protect yourself and others.

* A Small Craft Advisory is in effect due to the hazardous marine conditions with elevated winds and waves associated with the cold front. The Small Craft Advisory could need to be extended further, but more favorable conditions are expected to return to the marine zones by Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1049 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Arctic air continues to pour south, dropping temperatures across Deep South Texas into the upper 30s and low to mid 40s, with freezing temperatures working south through the CRP CWA. Model guidance continues to generally agree on high pressure settling into Texas early this week and shifting east before the next cold air mass drops into the Plains late week into next weekend. Southeasterly winds return briefly Tuesday afternoon before northerly winds return and a coastal trough of low pressure develops off the lower Texas coast into late next week with the next round of unsettled weather and cold conditions across Deep South Texas.

Lows Sunday morning dip near freezing across the ranchlands. Have trimmed highs substantially on Sunday again from NBM with CAA expected to mostly win out against any sunshine or clearing skies from west to east. Lows Sunday night into Monday morning will drop below freezing for ranchland locations by the late evening, bottoming out below 25 degrees across the ranchlands and upper 20s to low 30s across the RGV. Highs on Monday may only reach the mid to upper 40s for most locations despite abundant sunshine inland. Clearing skies and building high pressure set up another below- freezing night, even colder than Sunday night, for Monday night into Tuesday morning due to the last gasp of CAA and very efficient radiational cooling. High temperatures gradually warm back towards normal by Friday, before dropping off into the 50s again on Saturday. Overnight lows remain below normal, with mid to upper 30s across the ranchlands and upper valley Wednesday, Thursday, and Saturday mornings.

POPs gradually diminish and work eastward tonight into early Sunday, potentially hanging around the lower Texas coast into mid- morning. Continue to monitor Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, and Kenedy counties for any freezing rain threat, with nearly every model maintaining above freezing temperatures until POPs shove offshore, but observations continuing to come in cooler than most models so far this evening. NAM guidance has finally started to sort of get with the program and ARW temperatures for the second night have seemed pretty close as well, lending confidence to a cooler Sunday through Monday period than NBM. Used a blend of NBM10, NBM25, ARW, NBM, and hand edited the rest.

The main impact of this event still continues to be dangerous wind chills and cold impacts to people, pets, plants, and pipes through Tuesday morning. Wind Chill values drop below 25 degrees across the ranchlands early Sunday, with values below 15 degrees early Monday and Tuesday. Wind Chill values drop below 30 degrees for northern portions of the RGV early Sunday and below 20 degrees across most of the Rio Grande Valley early Monday and early Tuesday.

Have issued a Cold Weather Advisory for late tonight into late Sunday morning for Wind Chill values across Jim Hogg, Brooks, Inland and Coastal Kenedy, Northern Hidalgo, and Inland Willacy counties. Currently there are also Freeze Warnings and Extreme Cold Warnings in place for Sunday night, with additional Freeze and Extreme Cold Watches or Warnings necessary for Monday night into Tuesday morning. Hazardous beach conditions continue into next week, including a High Surf Advisory and Rip Current Statement.

The persistent CAA down the Laguna Madre will result in cold- stunned sea turtles, especially late Sunday into Tuesday, with air temperatures above the bay generally remaining near or below 50 degrees from Sunday morning through Tuesday morning. Pelicans often land on coastal bridges during these events, especially when there is light rainfall or drizzle, such as tonight into early Sunday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 521 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

IFR conditions are forecast to continue this morning at BRO and HRL, while MFE is forecast to remain MVFR. Ceilings are forecast to begin lifting shortly after sunrise, with MVFR ceilings likely at all TAF sites from mid morning to around noon. Ceilings look to break early this afternoon, with skies gradually clearing through the remainder of the day. Gusty northerly winds look to continue through the period.

MARINE

Issued at 1049 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Adverse marine conditions continue into Monday night. Marine conditions improve Tuesday with a brief return of southerly winds until a coastal trough of low pressure develops mid to late week off the lower Texas coast. Another strong cold front arrives Friday into Saturday, bringing the next round of adverse marine conditions. The chance of showers and light rain or drizzle continue along the lower Texas coast through Monday, returning late week into the weekend. Patchy sea fog may develop offshore into mid week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 50 30 50 34 / 20 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 48 27 48 29 / 10 0 10 0 MCALLEN 52 31 51 32 / 0 0 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 52 28 53 25 / 0 0 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 49 38 50 44 / 20 10 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 49 30 50 36 / 20 0 10 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Monday for TXZ248>255-351-353>355.

Extreme Cold Warning from 3 AM to 8 AM CST Monday for TXZ248>255- 351-353>355-451-454-455.

Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for TXZ249>251-254-351-353.

High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for TXZ451-454- 455.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175.