textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 135 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Key Messages:

- Unseasonably warm, dry, and breezy to windy conditions this week improve behind a cold front with deep moisture this weekend.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected Easter weekend and early next week, with early total rainfall estimates of 1 to 2 inches by Tuesday morning.

- Breezy to windy conditions this week and a cold front this weekend will create adverse marine conditions across the bay and Gulf waters.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Above normal temperatures and generally rain-free conditions will continue through at least the first half of the weekend across Deep South Texas. However, a pattern change will bring unsettled weather across the region by Saturday afternoon/night and into early next week, with widespread rain chances and notably cooler temperatures this weekend and into early next week.

Persistent low level southerly to southeasterly flow will continue to transport Gulf moisture northward to northwestward towards Deep South Texas this week, which will maintain warm and humid conditions each day. High temperatures each day will range from the upper 70s and low 80s along the Lower Texas beaches to mid to upper 90s across the Rio Grande Plains. In combination with the humidity, this will result in a minor (level 1 of 4) to moderate (level 2 of 4) heat risk through the first half of the weekend. Continue to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in the shade if spending a prolonged period outdoors.

As moisture content steadily rises through the week via low level flow, an upper level trough currently located near the Pacific Northwest will translate towards the Plains by the end of the week and into the weekend. The attendant surface cold front will approach Deep South Texas by Saturday afternoon and evening from north/northwest to south/southeast. Ahead of the cold front, much of Deep South Texas will be primed with anomalously high moisture content (~90th percentile for early April according to SPCs sounding climatology) with precipitable water values ranging from 1.8 to around 2 inches or so.

Most of Saturday should remain rain-free, although isolated warm advection showers cannot be ruled out along the immediate coast and Gulf waters during the morning and early afternoon hours. Precipitation chances should increase by Saturday afternoon and evening across the Northern Ranchlands and Upper RGV as the cold front approaches and interacts with favorable moisture content and diurnal instability. Saturday will also be an unseasonably warm day with highs once again in the mid 90s, around 5-10 degrees above normal for early April.

The latest suite of deterministic and probabilistic guidance continues to highlight the window of highest rain chances being Saturday night into Easter Sunday morning. Severe weather is not expected at this time, but an isolated strong thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out as the front translates across the region. A few elevated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Saturday night behind the front, but should remain below severe limits. The primary concern during this time frame will be locally heavy rainfall if any slow-moving, efficient rain-producing, or training showers and thunderstorms materialize as the system tracks across the area. Probabilistic guidance continues to highlight a low to medium (20-40%) chance of rainfall greater than 1 inch Saturday night into Easter Sunday morning and a medium chance (40-50%) of rainfall greater than 1 inch Saturday night through Sunday evening. However, rain chances into Sunday afternoon and night will be highly dependent on whether the front stays in the vicinity of the region or is pushed further south and east as high pressure settles in. Precipitation chances will continue into early next week, with low to medium (20-40%) rain chances through at least Tuesday. Overall rainfall accumulations from Saturday afternoon through Tuesday morning range from around 1-2 inches across the region. While any rainfall is beneficial across the region given our ongoing drought conditions, any locally heavy rain may result in minor runoff issues given the dry soils or nuisance flooding in low-lying or poor drainage areas.

Temperatures on Easter Sunday through early next week will be around 10-15 degrees below normal for early April, mostly in the 70s each afternoon.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 135 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

VFR will prevail through late this evening at all TAF sites. Another round of MVFR ceilings should develop once again tonight across the region after 06-08Z and continuing through 14-15Z. Otherwise, southeasterly winds will remain elevated through the forecast period with occasional gusts to 20 knots overnight and gusts to 25-30 knots by mid to late morning tomorrow.

MARINE

Issued at 135 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Low to moderate seas and light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue through this weekend across the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters. A locally enhanced pressure gradient may result in brief Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions each afternoon along the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters. Brief Small Craft Advisory conditions cannot be ruled out this week. A cold front arrives this weekend, which will likely result in Small Craft Advisory conditions. Rain chances also increase this weekend and into early next week, with a potential for thunderstorms Saturday night into early Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 72 88 73 88 / 0 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 70 91 70 91 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 74 94 75 94 / 0 0 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 71 98 73 96 / 0 10 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 80 73 80 / 0 0 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 87 70 86 / 0 0 10 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.