textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1234 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

- Mainly dry conditions expected through midweek. Rain chances increase Friday into the weekend as a cold front approaches.

- Cold front could bring breezy conditions and coastal hazards late week in its wake.

- There is a moderate to major (level 2 to 3/4) risk of heat- related illness through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1032 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Warm, mostly dry conditions are expected through Thursday, with only isolated sea breeze showers or thunderstorms possible. Temperatures remain above normal with highs in the mid-upper 90s and heat indices reaching 106-111 through Wednesday.

Rain chances increase to moderate (40-60%) Friday as a cold front moves through Deep South Texas. Elevated rain chances persist into the weekend, particularly along the coast, as a coastal trough develops offshore. Breezy northerly winds behind the front Friday into the weekend may bring elevated surf, an increased risk of rip currents, coastal flooding, and the possibility of a Wind Advisory. Cooler temperatures are expected behind the front this weekend, with highs in the 70s-80s.

There remains some model disagreement regarding the timing and strength of the front, so forecast adjustments are likely in the coming days.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Predominately VFR conditions are forecast through the period, though brief MVFR ceilings may be possible overnight at MFE. Winds are forecast to increase out of the southeast by mid morning, with gusts increasing through the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1032 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Moderate onshore to southerly flow and moderate seas 3-4 ft will continue through midweek. Rain chances stay low (generally 15% or less), with greatest chances during the afternoon. Each afternoon, caution conditions are possible on the Laguna Madre with gusty winds. An approaching cold front Friday will increase rain chances and deteriorate conditions, with Small Craft Advisories likely and Gale Warnings possible Friday into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 94 81 92 78 / 10 0 20 0 HARLINGEN 97 77 95 74 / 0 0 20 0 MCALLEN 99 80 98 77 / 10 0 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 99 78 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 82 87 80 / 10 10 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 93 79 90 77 / 10 10 20 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.