textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 521 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

- Increasing potential for some localized flooding, favoring the northern ranchlands especially Sunday night. A Flood Watch is in effect for Zapata, Jim Hogg, Starr, and Brooks County for through Monday morning.

- Elsewhere, beneficial rains for most of the Rio Grande Valley, but potential for isolated flash floods continues through Monday morning.

- Surf becoming more dangerous through Monday, with a High Risk of Rip Currents forecast to develop Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Enhanced forcing across Deep South Texas Sunday and Monday will support widespread showers across the area, with some isolated to scattered thunderstorms mixed in. Rainfall accumulations are generally forecast to range from 1 to 3 inches Sunday, with isolated pockets of 4-5 inches possible, primarily across western portions of the CWA. All of Deep South Texas remains under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall Sunday. A Flood Watch is in effect for Starr, Zapata, Brooks, and Jim Hogg counties through Monday morning.

An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain is forecast to occur Monday, with the heaviest rain rates likely to occur Monday morning, with the highest rainfall amounts likely to occur along and west of I-69C. This will continue to support the potential for flash flooding Monday morning. The showers are forecast to shift further east through the day Monday. All of Deep South Texas is under Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall Monday.

Rain chances are forecast to decrease Monday night, with daily low (20-30%) rain chances lingering through Thursday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 521 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Periods of moderate to heavy showers are expected across the Rio Grande Valley through the TAF period, with isolated thunderstorms this afternoon into early this evening. Expect generally ESE winds with prevailing VFR conditions giving way to MVFR and brief IFR ceilings where heavier showers or thunderstorms persist.

MARINE

Issued at 1100 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Winds and seas are forecast to increase early Sunday morning, likely resulting in adverse to hazardous conditions along the Lower Texas Coast. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headline or Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed Sunday into Monday morning.

Conditions are forecast to begin improving afternoon, with generally favorable winds and seas forecast to continue through the remainder of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 81 72 79 70 / 80 50 90 40 HARLINGEN 79 69 78 67 / 80 60 100 30 MCALLEN 82 70 78 67 / 90 90 100 40 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 64 74 62 / 80 100 100 50 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 73 76 72 / 80 50 80 30 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 70 78 68 / 80 50 90 40

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Monday morning for TXZ248>250-252.

High Rip Current Risk from noon CST today through Monday afternoon for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ130-132-135.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ150-155-170- 175.