textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1035 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Key Messages:

* Light rain will likely continue tonight into Monday, with rain chances decreasing by Monday afternoon.

* Low (10-20%) daily rain chances will be likely Tuesday night through Wednesday.

* An upper level disturbance will bring a 30-50% chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday.

* A High Risk of Rip Currents will continue through Monday evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Light rain will likely continue tonight with rain chances diminishing through the day Monday. Predominately zonal upper- level flow across South Texas looks to setup Monday afternoon and remain in place through mid-week. A few weak mid- level shortwaves and low level moisture advection will likely support limited rain chances around 10-20% through Wednesday. A stronger upper-level shortwave looks to move through the area Thursday into Friday. Increased forcing with this pattern will likely destabilize the atmosphere, increasing the chance for showers and thunderstorms to around 30-50%.

Temperatures are forecast to gradually warm through the week as cloud cover decreases Monday afternoon and winds shift easterly to southeasterly Tuesday. High temperatures Monday will likely range from the upper 60s to mid 70s, with highs increasing to the low to mid 80s by Wednesday. Likewise, low temperatures will likely range from the mid to upper 50s tonight, increasing to the mid to upper 60s by Wednesday night.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 645 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions will continue this evening into the overnight hours as light rain with the occasional heavier shower continue to impact the airfields. Conditions are forecast to begin improving Monday morning as rain chances decrease and ceilings begin to lift to VFR levels. Gusty northerly winds are forecast to continue this evening before diminishing overnight. Wind gusts are forecast to increase again by Monday afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until until 1 PM Monday for the Gulf waters and Laguna Madre. Strong northerly winds will likely begin to decrease in intensity late Monday morning, allowing seas to gradually improve through the afternoon. The Small Craft Advisory may need to be extended or replaced with Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines depending on how quickly seas improve.

Winds will likely shift to the east to southeast Monday night into Tuesday, with generally favorable winds and seas likely to persist through the remainder of the forecast. Rain chances between 20-40% will likely persist through much of the week over the Gulf waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 58 71 58 77 / 90 60 10 20 HARLINGEN 55 72 54 79 / 90 50 10 10 MCALLEN 59 73 58 81 / 80 40 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 55 70 56 78 / 70 20 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 65 70 66 74 / 90 60 10 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 59 71 60 78 / 80 60 10 20

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175.