textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 523 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

- Two cold front are expected to pass through Deep South Texas over the next few days; one tomorrow and a stronger one on Monday.

- Low to Moderate (20-40%) rain chances return Friday night into Saturday.

- Temperatures will gradually warm into the mid-80s through Sunday before the second stronger cold front lowers them back into the 70s for early next week.

- Beach and marine hazards are expected late this weekend into early next week, due to stronger winds associated with the front and east-northeasterly fetch.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1145 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

A pair of frontal boundaries are expected to move through Texas over the next few days, associated with strong low pressure off the Northeast Coast. The first frontal boundary will not make much difference in temperatures, but is expected to bring drier air to the area for Friday and push away lingering cloud cover. It was initially thought that this first frontal boundary was going to stall north of the area, but the latest guidance has it coming all the way through tomorrow and stalling just to the south.

A weak area of surface low pressure is expected to develop over Northern Mexico associated with the stationary front, which will increase rain chances for our area starting tomorrow night. Rain chances remain low tomorrow night (less than 25 percent), with the best chances being over the Western Ranchland Counties. Low to moderate (30 to 40%) chances become more widespread Saturday as the surface low moves further east. This low is expected to move offshore and hang around until the next cold front arrives , which will keep low rain chances (20 to 30%) in place for areas close to the coast Sunday into Sunday.

The second stronger front will follow on Monday. This front is not expected to bring significant precipitation to Deep South Texas (chances are less than 20% for areas east of I-69C), but will also bring a northerly wind shift and a noticeable drop in temperatures. High pressure is expected to surge from the Upper Midwest behind this front, which will help keep things dry through the middle of next week.

High temperatures are expected to gradually warm to the mid-80s by the weekend before the secondary cold front brings high temperatures back into the 70s for Monday through Wednesday. Low temperatures following the second frontal passage will get down into the mid-to- upper 50s for the Upper Ranchlands and the low 60s for the Rio Grande Valley.

Elevated winds and surf Saturday evening through Tuesday are expected to cause increased beach hazards across the Lower South Texas Coast.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 523 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Northerly winds become light and variable overnight, primarily out of the north-northeast. Winds increase again late Friday morning, shifting easterly. Clear skies and light winds overnight may lead to fog with radiational cooling. Greatest chances are at MFE, with a less than 30% chance of IFR or LIFR vsbys between 10-15Z. MVFR or lower category vsby reductions are possible (less than 30%) at HRL in the same time frame. Fog formation will depend on wind speeds staying below 5 kts and a dew point depression reaching 2deg or lower. Any fog should burn off as the sun rises, leaving primarily VFR conditions Friday.

MARINE

Issued at 1145 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are expected this afternoon over the Gulf waters ahead of an approaching front. Conditions should then improve until Saturday, when conditions are expected to deteriorate again due to a tightened pressure gradient and an east- northeasterly fetch, which will increase both winds and wave heights. Small Craft Exercise Caution and/or Small Craft Advisory conditions will be likely, and should continue through Tuesday before conditions improve.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 62 80 66 80 / 0 0 10 40 HARLINGEN 58 78 62 78 / 0 0 10 30 MCALLEN 59 79 63 79 / 0 0 20 40 RIO GRANDE CITY 56 78 61 78 / 0 0 20 40 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 70 76 72 77 / 0 0 10 40 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 63 78 66 78 / 0 0 10 30

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.