textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1027 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Key Messages

- Hot and mainly dry week is here.

- Weekend brings opportunity for rain.

- Wind + cured fuels = enhanced wildfire potential.

- Adverse marine conditions develop and persist.

- Continuous rip current threat.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 924 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

No significant changes to the current forecast philosophy. Generally dry weather with well above normal daytime highs and overnight lows will dominate through a majority of the period. This will be due to 500 mb high pressure that will gradually shift from west to east across Mexico and the Gulf of America, but will be in control throughout the shift over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Some very isolated showers over the extreme northern fringe of the northern ranchlands and the lower Texas coastal waters cannot be entirely ruled out.

However, a possible change in the weather pattern exists for the weekend. Closed 500 mb low pressure diving south into the Baja Peninsula, and eventually east across the Lone Star State, may bring isolated to scattered convection for Saturday and Sunday across the BRO CWFA.

Prior to the precipitation potential, a breezy to windy onshore flow will occur. Given the anticipated strength of the winds, and abundant cure fuels from prolonged drought conditions and a couple of episodes of freezing temperatures earlier this year, the need for a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement (or several) cannot be entirely ruled out, especially in the Tuesday through Thursday time frame.

Finally, building seas along the Lower Texas Coast will likely create a Moderate Risk to High Risk of rip currents at the local beaches daily.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1027 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

MVFR to VFR will continue to be the rule at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours.

MARINE

Issued at 924 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

It continues to be anticipated that a steadily enhanced pressure gradient over the western Gulf of America will produce unsettled marine conditions throughout the forecast period. Breezy to strong winds are likely, with moderate to rough seas expected. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and/or Small Craft Advisory are likely to be needed daily, especially for the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf of America waters, beginning on Tuesday and persisting through the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 67 86 71 85 / 0 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 63 89 68 89 / 0 0 0 10 MCALLEN 67 92 72 92 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 63 94 69 94 / 0 0 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 69 78 71 78 / 0 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 65 85 68 84 / 0 0 0 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.