textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

- Low rain chances (15-25%) return Saturday with higher rain chances (45-65%) late Monday through Tuesday.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected through next week. - Persistent easterly swell will increase the rip current risk along the lower Texas coast and combine with elevated astronomical tides to narrow beaches during high tide cycles next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

A ridge of high pressure parked along the western Gulf gradually shifts further offshore and south, maintaining near to above normal temperatures, and bringing a more active pattern with increased tropical moisture from the Pacific to Deep South Texas through the end of October. A weak shortwave is expected on Saturday with a low chance of rain across the RGV. An upper level disturbance swings through late Monday into Tuesday, with the highest chance of rainfall through the forecast period, currently 45-65 percent, mainly along and east of US-281. Isolated to scattered sea breeze and streaming showers or convection are expected each day through the end of the month.

Persistent easterly flow across the Gulf likely increases the threat of rip currents next week and may combine with increasing astronomical tides to narrow beaches during high tide cycles during the afternoon and evening hours.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with a southeasterly breeze Saturday afternoon and low chance of a brief shower.

MARINE

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Easterly onshore flow and increasing swell are expected through next week along the lower Texas coast with afternoon winds occasionally approaching Small Craft Caution conditions. The chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms returns with a weak disturbance on Saturday. A higher chance of showers or thunderstorms arrives with an upper level disturbance late Monday through Tuesday. Unsettled weather continues through the remainder of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 72 86 73 85 / 20 20 10 0 HARLINGEN 68 87 70 86 / 10 20 10 0 MCALLEN 71 90 73 88 / 10 20 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 68 90 70 88 / 10 20 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 81 75 80 / 20 20 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 70 84 71 83 / 20 20 10 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.