textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 517 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

- A rainy pattern is expected to continue into early next week, with moderate to high rain chances (40-80%) over the weekend.

- All of Deep South Texas is under a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall Saturday and Monday, with a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall Sunday. Isolated flash flooding is possible in areas that receive heavier rain.

- Cooler temperatures will continue through the end of next week. Temperatures will be pleasant with highs in the 70s and 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1056 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

An upper level trough moving across the Southwest will increase forcing across South Texas over the weekend. Paired with southeasterly low-level flow advecting additional moisture into the region, this pattern will support increased rain chances into early next week. Rain chances are forecast to decrease by Monday night, with low rain chances lingering through much of the week.

Rain chances are forecast to increase from around 20-30% Saturday morning to 60-80% across the area Saturday night. Rainfall amounts are forecast to generally range from 1 to 2 inches, with isolated pockets of 2 to 3 inches possible Saturday. The Weather Prediction Center has all of Deep South Texas under a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall Saturday.

The highest rainfall amounts are forecast to occur Sunday into Sunday night, with 24-hour totals of 1.5 to 3 inches forecast across most of Deep South Texas. Some isolated pockets of 4-5 inches may be possible. The Weather prediction Center has all of Deep South Texas under a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall Sunday. Generally light to moderate rainfall rates are expected Sunday, though some isolated heavier rainfall is possible, which may result in isolated flash flooding.

Deep South Texas will once again find itself under a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall Monday, with rain chances forecast to gradually decrease through the afternoon and evening, with rainfall amounts up to 1 inch forecast for Monday. Rain chances are forecast to gradually decrease through the day Monday, with daily low (20-30%) rain chances forecast to continue through Thursday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 517 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Passing showers are expected to bring MVFR ceilings to the RGV aerodromes this morning into this afternoon, with otherwise VFR conditions prevailing. There is a low (20 percent) chance of an isolated thunderstorm by the afternoon, with confidence too low to include in this TAF package.

MARINE

Issued at 1056 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Generally favorable marine conditions are forecast to continue into the day Saturday, though showers and thunderstorms will be possible, with the highest rain chances over the Laguna Madre and along the coast. Winds and seas are forecast to increase Saturday night, likely resulting in adverse to hazardous conditions along the Lower Texas Coast. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headline or Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed Saturday night through Sunday night.

Conditions are forecast to begin improving Monday, with generally favorable winds and seas forecast to continue through the remainder of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 83 72 82 72 / 70 40 50 50 HARLINGEN 81 69 80 69 / 60 40 70 50 MCALLEN 83 71 82 70 / 60 60 80 60 RIO GRANDE CITY 79 66 78 65 / 50 70 80 80 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 75 79 74 / 70 40 50 50 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 71 81 70 / 60 40 50 50

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.