textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1045 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

- Overall seasonable temperatures and pleasant weather expected.

- Narrow beaches around high tide are expected through Wednesday.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday east of US-281.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1045 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Ridging over NE Mexico will slowly shift east towards the Gulf, keeping mostly fair weather for much of the period. High temperatures climb to the upper 80s-low 90s by Wednesday, with a Minor (level 1 of 4) risk of heat related illness into the weekend.

Mostly dry conditions should prevail through this afternoon. A plume of moisture associated with a developing coastal trough will bring deeper moisture westward beginning tonight. Rain chances increase along the coast overnight, spreading westward through Wednesday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms peak Wednesday afternoon, with moderate PoPs (40-60%) east of US-281, highest near the coast. Drier conditions are expected Thursday through Sunday as high pressure dominates. Low rain chances return early next week.

Long-period swell and northeast winds will keep local beaches narrow. Minor coastal flooding is possible near high through the middle of the week. Current guidance keeps water levels below minor flooding threshold, but conditions will continue to be monitored.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Occasional gusts around 20 kts are possible at all sites through 1Z. Showers along the coast moving inland may bring brief periods of MVFR ceilings and light rain to BRO and/or HRL this evening. Outside of this, VFR conditions should prevail. Tonight, northeasterly winds lessen and become light before increasing again to around 10 knots late Tuesday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 1045 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Adverse conditions are expected through midweek due to moderate seas and northeast to onshore winds, resulting in intermittent SCEC conditions across the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters. Rain chances increase Tuesday night into Wednesday as a coastal trough brings additional moisture to the reaching, with PoPs reaching 70-80% over the Gulf waters Wednesday. Thursday and Friday, conditions improve as seas decrease to slight and winds decrease to a gentle breeze.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 84 72 88 73 / 40 10 0 30 HARLINGEN 85 70 89 71 / 30 10 0 30 MCALLEN 87 71 92 71 / 10 10 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 86 70 91 69 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 74 84 74 / 50 10 10 50 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 83 71 86 72 / 40 10 0 40

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.