textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 615 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

- A Special Weather Statement (SPS) is in effect across inland deep south Texas today for heat indices of 105-110 F.

- Daily low rain chances each afternoon along the seabreeze through Sunday.

- Moderate to major heat risks (levels 2 and 3 of 4) today become minor (1 of 4) to moderate Friday through Sunday. Heat Risk returns to major early next week.

- A medium risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through Thursday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Clearing clouds near the southeast coast after showers this morning are allowing temps to climb under daytime heating. A Special Weather Statement (SPS) is in effect for all of deep South Texas until 6 PM for heat indices of 105-110, where a few locations may briefly reach or surpass 111.

Sandwiched between a Bermuda high over the eastern Gulf and high pressure over the desert SW will keep the forecast mostly copacetic. Shortwaves riding along the periphery of these highs will allow for increased shower and thunderstorm chances along the sea breeze each day over the weekend. Rain chances remain generally low at 20% or less each afternoon, limited primarily east of US281. Deep moisture will continue to increase through the weekend with easterly flow aloft, with the highest rain chances (still low, around 30%) expected Sunday. These showers may bring briefly heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds. Widespread rainfall amounts are not expected to exceed a half an inch, but locally higher amounts are possible under heavy showers, or areas under training storms.

Increased moisture, cloud cover and any rain will help to limit apparent temperatures this weekend with a reduced risk (minor to moderate) of heat related illness. This sounds pleasant, but guidance still suggests up to a sticky 110 heat index this weekend. Ridging expands over TX early next week, returning southerly flow aloft and drier mid-levels. This will limit rain chances into the workweek, but will allow for heat to increase yet again. By early next workweek, Moderate to Major risk of heat- related illness returns.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Breezy southeasterly winds this evening (around 14-17 knots, gusting to 22-25 knots) are likely to settle out overnight to a gentle to light and variable breeze before picking back up to similar speeds by tomorrow afternoon. Although confidence still remains too low to include PROB30s at this time, there is the possibility of some brief showers and thunderstorms, with the highest probabilities at KHRL and KMFE tomorrow afternoon, which could result in brief periods of reduced visibility and/or lower ceilings. PROB30s may be introduced later tonight or tomorrow morning. Otherwise, conditions remain VFR.

MARINE

Issued at 129 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf are possible each day through the weekend, with chances increasing from low today (20%), peaking at low to moderate (30-50%) Sunday morning. Generally southeasterly to onshore moderate to gentle flow with slight seas will persist, with breezy conditions along the nearshore and Laguna Madre each afternoon. Flow strengthens next week to a more consistent moderate, and may return Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 80 96 79 94 / 0 10 10 20 HARLINGEN 76 97 74 96 / 0 10 0 20 MCALLEN 80 101 78 100 / 0 20 0 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 101 77 99 / 0 10 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 80 87 / 0 10 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 93 78 92 / 0 10 10 20

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.