textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 533 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

- Dry conditions and above-normal temperatures expected through next week.

- A weak cold front will move through the region Saturday evening bringing drier air this weekend and into next week. This could lead to increased fire weather concerns.

- There is a small but non-zero chance that winds could reach Wind Advisory conditions tomorrow depending on the strength and timing of the low-level jet.

- Marine and beach hazards are expected with the frontal passage. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed tomorrow for the Bay and Gulf waters. Tonight there is a moderate risk of life- threatening rip currents, which will increase to a high risk tomorrow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1131 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Warm and dry conditions will persist through the end of next week. Tomorrow, an upper level shortwave is expected to move over Texas, which will bring a weak cold front to Deep South Texas on Saturday night. Prior to the cold front's arrival, tomorrow's high temperatures are expected to reach the upper 80s/lower 90s. The front is expected to slightly cool high temperatures into the mid-80s for a few days before temperatures creep back into the upper 80s/low 90s again by next Tuesday. Low temperatures will cool from the the upper 50s/lower 60s to the low 50s Monday and Tuesday mornings.

Model guidance continues to consistently place thunderstorm risk north of our CWA for Saturday. However, a shower or two cannot be ruled out in very northern portions of the CWA, particularly in Brooks and Kenedy Counties. Short range CAM guidance hints there could be a few isolated showers in this area, but chances are less than 20% and not many places are expected to see any precipitation, if any.

There is a low potential (between 5-10% according to DESI guidance) that gusty winds could develop tonight into tomorrow morning that closely approach or reach Wind Advisory Criteria due to the presence of a low-level jet ahead of the approaching shortwave. However, models are inconsistent on location, timing, and potential. The HRRR favors gusty winds developing late tonight off the Sierra Madres and impacting the Western Ranchlands, before slowly spreading east to the Central Rio Grande Valley by morning. The RAP shows a LLJ at 850 mb with winds exceeding 45 knots over the Central and Eastern CWA that could mix down to the surface Saturday morning, possibly creating Wind Advisory conditions. The NAM, on the other hand, is overall more conservative than shorter-range CAMs, with wind speeds and gusts remaining well below Wind Advisory Criteria. The NBM is also in more agreement with the NAM. Because of the uncertainty of the timing and strength of the LLJ, along with the low probability of Wind Advisory criteria being met, no wind products will be issued with this forecast package. However, winds are expected to be gusty tomorrow, regardless of strength. Updated model guidance along with real-time evening upper air observations will be monitored to see if any products will be needed at a later time.

Dry air is expected behind the front, which will drop minimum relative humidities to the 20-30% range on Sunday and Monday for much of the CWA. The timing of highest winds does not completely line up with the timing of the lowest humidities. However, because fuels are freeze-cured, outdoor burning is still strongly discouraged during times of gusty winds and following the frontal passage because fuels will catch quickly in the dry air. If wind guidance trends slightly upward on wind speeds/gusts (especially on Sunday when there is northwesterly flow and humidities are at their lowest), Fire Danger products could be needed.

Due to elevated winds and waves from tomorrow's frontal passage, there is also a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents at area beaches tonight and a high risk tomorrow.

Following the weak frontal passage, upper-level ridging with semi-zonal flow is expected for the region next week, which will keep the weather warm and dry through the end of the week. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions are expected, with winds shifting from the north-northeast on Sunday and Monday back to the east-southeast by Tuesday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 533 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

VFR to MVFR conditions are expected into tonight with a LLJ maintaining elevated southeasterly winds across the RGV through the period, included frequent to occasional gusts near 30 kts mid Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1131 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Marine conditions are expected to start deteriorating tonight, with SCEC conditions developing both on the Bay and on the Gulf Waters. A Small Craft Advisory is also going to be likely needed for tomorrow, but additional guidance is still needed to determine exact timing. Conditions should improve Sunday evening into Monday and should stay favorable for the early part of the week. By Wednesday/Thursday, SCEC conditions could return due to a tightening pressure gradient, but should improve again by Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 68 83 63 86 / 0 10 10 0 HARLINGEN 64 86 58 88 / 10 0 10 0 MCALLEN 69 91 63 90 / 10 0 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 66 91 58 88 / 10 0 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 67 75 64 75 / 0 10 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 65 82 60 81 / 10 10 10 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.