textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1042 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

- Temperatures look to briefly warm up Wednesday as southeasterly winds bring warmer air to the region.

- A cold front Thursday will cool temperatures back off and increase rain chances. Overcast skies and periods of light rain or drizzle will likely continue Friday.

- Adverse marine conditions return on Thursday in wake of a cold front, with Small Craft Exercise Caution and/or Small Craft Advisory headlines possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1042 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Southeasterly winds are briefly forecast to return Wednesday, which will likely allow for WAA to increase high temperatures back to the 70s to low 80s across the area Wednesday afternoon. Partly to mostly cloudy skies could limit the heating, however the bulk of the model guidance is in good agreement on afternoon temperatures Wednesday. The main outlier is the NAM, which is holding on to the northerly winds and keeping temperatures cooler. While the NAM tends to handle advancing cold fronts well, it has a tendency to hold on to the cold air for too long. Likewise, low temperatures Wednesday night are forecast to increase to the upper 50s to mid 60s.

These warmer temperatures will likely be short lived, as another cold front is forecast to move through the area Thursday morning. This will complicate the high temperature forecast on Thursday, as the high will likely occur in the morning, ahead of the front. Temperatures in the northern portions of the CWA likely wont increase much above the Wednesday night low before the front arrives. On the other hand, temperatures along the Rio Grande may be able to increase to the 70s or low 80s before the front arrives. Low temperatures Thursday night look to fall back to the upper 40s to low 50s across the area.

Rain chances will also increase with the front, and in the wake of it, as persistent southerly 850mb flow looks to advect moisture over the shallow cold layer. Overcast skies and periods of light rain or drizzle will likely persist into the weekend. This overrunning pattern looks to finally break down Saturday night or Sunday as a deep upper level trough traversing the Central US shifts the low-level flow to the northwest, advecting dry air to the region. Sunny to mostly sunny skies and near zero rain chances will then continue into early next week.

Low temperatures will likely remain in the 50s Friday night through the end of the period. Northerly winds and overcast skies will likely keep limit daytime heating on Friday, keeping the high temperatures fairly close to the Thursday night low temperatures. NBM guidance is coming in well above that, about 15 degrees above the low. Mixing in NAM brings the diurnal swing to a more reasonable 8-10 degrees, but that may still be on the high side. High temperatures do look to increase Saturday, as decreased cloud cover will likely allow for more daytime heating.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1042 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

MVFR ceilings will prevail at BRO and HRL through much of the forecast period. MFE however, will see a mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings through Wednesday afternoon. Winds will remain light and variable overnight with southeasterly winds picking up slightly by midday Wednesday.

MARINE

Issued at 1042 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Favorable marine conditions will likely persist through Wednesday night. A cold front moving south through the area Thursday will likely bring stronger northerly winds and increased seas Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines or Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed for that time period. Generally favorable conditions look to return by Friday afternoon, and continue through the remainder of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 59 55 78 68 / 10 10 10 10 HARLINGEN 59 51 78 64 / 10 0 10 10 MCALLEN 60 55 79 67 / 10 0 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 63 49 80 62 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 63 58 77 73 / 10 10 20 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 60 54 77 67 / 10 10 20 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.