textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1219 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

- Mainly rain-free and at times breezy conditions will prevail through next week; low chance (20% or less) of a rogue sea breeze shower or thunderstorm through Saturday.

- Peak heat indices between 100-110F degrees will result in widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk across Deep South Texas each day. - Favorable marine conditions can be expected through next week with light to moderate winds and low to moderate seas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1035 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Hot and mostly dry conditions continue into the weekend under broad mid-level ridging over eastern CONUS. Temperatures will remain seasonable for early July, with highs in the upper 90s to low 100s (80s along the coast) and lows in the 70s. Heat indices from 100-110 degF each afternoon will maintain a moderate risk of heat related illness. Breezy south-southeasterly winds continue each afternoon and evening with winds gusting around 25 mph.

Abundant moisture in place thanks to persistent southeasterly winds may interact with shortwaves on the periphery of the aforementioned ridge, bringing a chance for isolated showers or thunderstorms during the afternoon hours. Today through Saturday, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon along the sea breeze.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Predominantly VFR conditions are forecast to continue through the TAF period, though there is a low potential for brief MVFR ceilings to develop early this morning. There is also a low (20%) chance for convection to develop along the sea breeze this afternoon, which could result in MVFR to IFR conditions if any showers or thunderstorms move over an airfield.

MARINE

Issued at 1035 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Favorable conditions are expected through the forecast with gentle to moderate southeasterly flow and slight seas. There is a chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon through Saturday. Gusty winds over the Laguna Madre each afternoon and evening may bring brief Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 93 79 94 80 / 20 0 20 0 HARLINGEN 94 76 95 77 / 20 0 20 0 MCALLEN 97 79 98 79 / 20 0 20 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 98 77 99 77 / 10 0 20 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 80 87 81 / 20 10 20 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 78 91 78 / 20 10 20 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.