textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1018 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

- Mainly dry, but there will be day-to-day or near day-to-day chances for showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two through Thursday; low-medium chances (20-50%) Monday through Thursday.

- Temperatures will average out normal to warmer than normal through next weekend. Hotter than normal temperatures (90s) will develop by next weekend amid a building heat ridge.

- A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect from 3pm-midnight Monday for the Lower Texas Coast beaches.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1018 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Mainly dry conditions can be expected through the forecast period or through early next week across Deep South Texas. However, there still remains low-medium (20-50%) day-to-day rain chances beginning Monday night and persisting through Thursday, courtesy of a nearby mid-upper level shortwave disturbance. Embedded thunderstorms are possible with any showers that do develop. Most of the activity will be isolated to scattered and diurnally driven. By Friday, rain chances decrease as the aforementioned shortwave dissolves and high pressure builds into the region.

Despite the ridge flattening out during much of the forecast period, geopotential heights will still be positive on a southwest flow aloft regime to keep temperatures running normal to warmer than normal through next weekend. Hotter than normal temperatures return by next weekend as a 591 dam heat ridge builds over the region. High temperatures Sunday through Friday will range between the mid 80s near the coast to the lower 90s far west. Next weekend, high temperatures will range between the low to mid 90s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 537 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Through 00z Tuesday....VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 00z TAF cycle.

Easterly winds 5-10 knots will trend towards light and variable to calm tonight. On Monday, winds will once again pick up out of the east with speeds between 5-12 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 1018 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Adverse marine conditions are expected through the forecast period. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions can be expected through the forecast period or through this week, thanks to a persistent and increasing easterly swell and on occasions afternoon winds. High end SCEC conditions are expected Monday night into Tuesday. There could be a brief period of Small Craft Advisory conditions during this time. Day-to-day chances for showers and thunderstorms are possible over the Laguna Madre and Gulf Waters through the middle parts of this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 70 86 71 86 / 0 20 40 60 HARLINGEN 67 85 68 86 / 0 10 30 60 MCALLEN 69 90 71 90 / 10 10 10 40 RIO GRANDE CITY 67 90 68 90 / 10 0 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 80 72 80 / 0 20 60 50 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 83 69 83 / 0 20 40 60

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.