textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 635 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

- Skies should stay mostly dry into the weekend, with daily isolated showers/thunderstorms possible. The greatest chance of rain is Thursday in the Rio Grande Plains.

- Temperatures gradually climb through late week to above normal by this weekend.

- A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect until 7 AM Thursday for the Lower Texas Coast beaches.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Rain chances remain low Wednesday, though a distant shortwave interacting with Gulf moisture may bring showers and thunderstorms near the coast. Wednesday night and Thursday, moisture associated with the remnants of current Pacific Tropical Storm Vance moves into deep South Texas, bringing PWAT values around 2" - very moist for late October. This will increase rain chances in western portions of the CWA, highest in the Rio Grande Plains (40%). Mostly dry conditions return for Friday through the weekend outside of a diurnal isolated shower or thunderstorm.

Temperatures remain near to above normal through Thursday, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. This weekend, high temperatures gradually climb under zonal flow aloft. Highs may climb into the low to mid 90s Monday. A closed low entering central CONUS may bring a cold front early next week, dropping temperatures and increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms. There is still disagreement between models on the depth and track of this system, so continue monitoring the forecast for updates.

At area beaches, minor coastal flooding remains possible during high tide, with elevated swell periods and high astronomical tides. A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect until 4 AM Wednesday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

There is a low (10-15%) chance for isolated showers or thunderstorms through the afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast to continue through the period. Winds are forecast to increase out of the east or southeast to around 10 knots this afternoon, before becoming light and variable again overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Gentle to moderate southeasterly to onshore winds, slight seas, and 7 to 8 second period swell will prevail through the week. Low to moderate rain chances Wednesday (30-60%) diminish Thursday onwards, with isolated showers or thunderstorms possible. Showers and thunderstorms could lead to locally higher winds and seas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 87 73 86 71 / 20 10 10 0 HARLINGEN 88 70 86 68 / 10 10 0 0 MCALLEN 92 74 89 72 / 10 10 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 91 71 88 70 / 10 10 30 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 75 80 74 / 20 10 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 85 71 83 70 / 20 10 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.