textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 631 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Key Messages:

- Moderate to major heat risk through midweek as hot and dry conditions prevail.

- A moderate risk of rip currents is likely at areas beaches through midweek.

- Adverse marine conditions are possible each afternoon on the Laguna Madre.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

An upper level ridge over Northern Mexico will support generally hot and dry conditions through the work week. Isolated afternoon convection along a dryline running from the Sierra Madre up through North Texas will remain possible for the next couple days, though the probability of any convection making it to Deep South Texas remains very low (<10%). High CAPE values and ample wind shear could allow for any thunderstorm that does make it to the CWA to be strong to severe, however a capping inversion and dry mid levels will likely hinder convection. Extended runs of the HRRR and RRFS both show convection developing over Mexico Monday afternoon but dissipating before reaching the border.

Heat will likely remain the primary hazard this week, with high temperatures forecast to range from the mid 90s to low 100s through Wednesday and the low to mid 90s Thursday and Friday. Heat indices are forecast to generally range from 105 to 110 degrees Monday and Tuesday afternoons, though some isolated pockets of higher heat indices are possible.

Global models have been consistently indicating a pattern change next weekend, as an upper level trough moves across the Southwest. This could drive a cold front south, through Deep South Texas early next weekend, bringing increased rain chances and cooler temperatures by the end of the period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Low stratus clouds with some MVFR ceilings and light southeast winds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Ceilings are expected to gradually improve to VFR mid to late morning. Light southeast winds will become moderate to gusty later this morning into the afternoon. MVFR ceilings are forecast to return later this evening and tonight.

MARINE

Issued at 1047 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Generally favorable marine conditions are expected to persist on the Gulf waters through Friday, while elevated winds along the Laguna Madre each afternoon may prompt Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines. A cold front looks to move through the area next weekend, likely resulting in elevated winds and seas behind the front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 92 76 92 75 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 94 74 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 97 77 99 77 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 99 76 103 75 / 0 10 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 76 83 75 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 75 90 73 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.