textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 511 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

- A minor freeze is forecast for portions of Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, and Kenedy Counties around sunrise Sunday.

- Dangerous surf, gusty winds, and rough seas will continue along the Lower Texas Coast through Sunday morning.

- Rain chances look to return Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1053 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Satellite and surface observations indicate that cloud cover is moving out of the area, with clear skies developing across the region. Clear skies, combined with light northerly winds will allow for efficient cooling tonight, as temperatures drop into the low 30s across northern portions of the CWA and into the upper 30s to low 40s in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. The Freeze Warning for Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks and Kenedy counties will be in effect from 4 AM to 9 AM as temperatures will likely drop below freezing for a brief period around sunrise.

Light winds and sunny skies Sunday will likely allow temperatures to climb back into the 60s by Sunday afternoon. The dry airmass will remain in place Sunday, with afternoon relative humidity values likely falling into the teens. However, light winds across the area will limit any fire weather concerns, so a Fire Danger Statement or Red Flag Warning likely won't be needed.

Winds will likely shift back to the southeast by Sunday evening, allowing for gradually warmer temperatures through mid week. High temperatures will likely return to the 70s Monday and may reach the low 80s by Friday.

An upper level shortwave traversing Northern Mexico and the Southern US midweek will likely provide enough forcing to bring rain chances back to the area Tuesday and Wednesday. Additionally, another cold front looks to approach the area during the later half of the week, though there is significant uncertainty on when or if the front will move through Deep South Texas.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 511 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

VFR conditions with light northerly winds are expected to affect all TAF sites through the TAF period. Some low-level clouds are possible during the period, but should not be enough to change the flight categories.

MARINE

Issued at 1053 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Hazardous marine conditions will continue into Sunday morning, with conditions forecast to improve through the day. Wind speeds are forecast to begin to subside around sunrise, with seas improving shortly thereafter. The Small Craft Advisory may need to be extended or replaced with a Small Craft Should Exercise Cation headline for a couple hours as conditions improve Sunday morning.

Favorable marine conditions will likely return Sunday afternoon, and generally continue through the week. Winds and seas may briefly approach Small Craft Should Exercise Caution criteria Tuesday night as pressure gradients tighten along the Lower Texas Coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 64 45 72 59 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 64 40 73 53 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 65 42 75 58 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 64 37 75 55 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 60 53 68 63 / 0 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 62 45 71 58 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Freeze Warning until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ248>251.

High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ451-454-455.

High Surf Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ451-454- 455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ130-132- 135-150-155-170-175.