textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 453 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

- A warming trend continues this week.

- Rain chances return Tuesday into Wednesday.

- A cold front will move through Deep South Texas next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1046 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

A gradual warming trend is forecast this week with high temperatures climbing from the low to mid 70s Monday to the low to mid 80s Friday. A cold front looks to stall over Central Texas Monday, while an upper level shortwave looks to traverse Northern Mexico and into the Southern US by mid week. As the shortwave passes over Texas, cyclogenesis may occur along the stationary boundary Tuesday into Wednesday, which could increase rain chances across Deep South Texas. The Best rain chances, around 50%, look to be limited to the coast and Gulf waters Wednesday, with PoPs around 30-40% further inland. The surface low looks to weaken and move further offshore by Thursday, with rain chances dropping off for the remainder of the workweek.

Another cold front could move through Deep South Texas next weekend, bringing cooler temperatures and additional rain chances to the area.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 453 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Through 12z Tuesday....VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 12z TAF cycle. Clouds are expected to increase in coverage later this afternoon/evening.

Light and variable to calm winds this morning are expected to pick up out of the east-southeast later this morning/afternoon with speeds between 5-10 kts. There could be an occasional gusts up to 20 kts.

MARINE

Issued at 1046 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Generally favorable marine conditions will persist through the majority of the week. Light to moderate easterly to southeasterly winds will likely persist through midweek, supporting slight to moderate seas. A brief uptick in wind speeds are possible Tuesday night over the offshore Gulf waters, which may require brief Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines.

A cold front next weekend may bring stronger northerly winds and higher seas, resulting in adverse to hazardous marine conditions by Saturday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 71 59 73 62 / 0 0 20 30 HARLINGEN 72 54 73 58 / 0 0 20 30 MCALLEN 75 58 74 61 / 0 0 20 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 74 55 71 58 / 0 0 20 40 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 68 63 70 65 / 0 10 30 40 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 58 72 60 / 0 0 20 30

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.