textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1059 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Key Messages

- Showers and thunderstorms re-enter the forecast.

- Marine conditions improve slightly.

- Rip currents remain a concern at the local beaches.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 922 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

After a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions, a pattern shift will result in more active weather. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will first enter the forecast from Saturday night through Sunday night as closed 500 mb low pressure dives into the Baja Peninsula and lingers at that location. From around sunrise Saturday until around sunrise Sunday, the Storm Prediction Center has placed the northern half of the BRO CWFA in a Marginal Risk of severe weather, with the southern half of the BRO CWFA in a general risk of thunderstorms. For this same time period, and also sunrise Sunday to sunrise Monday, the Weather Prediction Center places Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall just north of the BRO CWFA.

The next period of unsettled weather is anticipated for Tuesday night, as the aforementioned closed mid-level low pressure system begins to approach the Texas Big Bend. Only isolated to scattered convection is forecast at this time, and model guidance suggests that this precipitation potential may even spill over into Wednesday.

Unfortunately, the episodes of rainfall and associated enhanced cloud cover will do little to stifle temperatures, which will continue to run at well above normal levels for this time of year.

Finally, continued moderate to breezy winds and moderate seas along the Lower Texas Coast will result in an elevated rip current risk at the local beaches.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1059 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Through 18z Saturday....Main weather concerns to the local terminals through the 18z TAF cycle will be the wind and MVFR ceilings. As of this update, GOES-19 visible satellite imagery and sfc observations revealed a SCT-OVC strato-cumulus deck of MVFR clouds around with ceilings ranging between 2,500-3,500 feet AGL. Through much of the forecast period or over the next 24 hours, expect for MVFR cigs to be around under a mainly SCT-OVC deck.

The other concern will be the windy conditions. Courtesy of strong low level jet (LLJ) support just above the sfc, southerly winds 10- 20 kts gusting 25-35 kts will persist through today before waning slightly later this evening/tonight. During the day on Saturday, expect for these winds to pick up (though not as strong as today) as sunlight, mixing heights, and LLJ support increases.

MARINE

Issued at 922 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

The enhanced pressure gradient that has dominated over the western Gulf of America through the past few days, resulting in breezy winds and rougher seas, will relax slightly during the forecast period. This will have the effect of generally more moderate winds and seas along the Lower Texas Coast. Small Craft Advisory is not anticipated to be needed, but winds and/or seas may occasionally reach Small Craft Should Exercise Caution criteria, especially Friday and Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 72 87 72 86 / 10 0 30 50 HARLINGEN 69 91 69 87 / 10 0 40 60 MCALLEN 74 94 73 89 / 10 10 50 80 RIO GRANDE CITY 71 97 67 84 / 10 10 70 90 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 71 79 72 78 / 10 0 30 50 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 86 69 84 / 10 0 30 50

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...None.