textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1117 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

- A Fire Danger Statement (RFD) remains in effect for all inland areas of Deep South Texas until 6 PM this evening as the combination of crashing relative humidity values and breezy to gusty northerly winds behind a passing cold front result in elevated fire weather conditions. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

- Winds diminish this evening, but low relative humidity values are likely Thursday and Friday afternoon, so outdoor burning is still not recommended into Friday.

- A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Lower Texas coastal waters until 9 AM tomorrow as strong northerly winds behind today's cold front result in adverse marine conditions.

- A moderate risk of rip currents this afternoon becomes a high risk overnight tonight through tomorrow afternoon.

- Above average temperatures today become near to below average tonight through tomorrow night before rising back to near to above average Friday into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1117 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

A relatively quiet forecast is in store for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley over the next 7 days, remaining dry. We start off the forecast with a cold front continuing to push through the region into this afternoon ahead of a mid/upper level trough moving over Texas, passing north of the CWA tonight. A pressure gradient tightening behind the front increases northerly winds to around 15- 20 mph, gusting to 25-30 mph, highest along the coast (sustained winds of 20-25 mph). Also associated with this front is an elevated fire weather risk due to the combination of crashing relative humidity coinciding with the breezy conditions. A Fire Danger Statement (RFD) remains in effect for until 6 PM this evening for all inland portions of Deep South Texas and outdoor burning is not recommended; see the FIRE WEATHER section below for more details. Overnight, winds diminish across inland areas while breezy winds gradually diminish near/along the immediate Gulf coast, with gusts up to 20-25 mph still expected through much of the nighttime hours. Light to gentle winds return tomorrow, remaining out of the north, thanks to a surface high pressure over Texas, transitioning to easterly by tomorrow evening before becoming light and variable tomorrow night. Ridging aloft and southeasterly to southerly winds return by Friday evening and for the remainder of the forecast as the surface high pressure moves offshore to the western Gulf, sliding east into next week.

Although winds diminish tonight and remain light to gentle tomorrow into Friday, afternoon minimum relative humidity values continue to fall to near 20-40% across inland areas, which still causes for some concern of fire weather conditions Thursday and Friday afternoon. Outdoor burning is still not recommended.

Temperatures remain slightly above normal this afternoon, maximizing in the 60s/70s (normal highs this time of year are low to mid 50s). As cold air advection continues tonight into tomorrow, temperatures fall to around 10 degrees F below average tonight and tomorrow, down to the 40s tonight and a few degrees cooler tomorrow night, with upper 30s in the Northern Ranchlands and low/mid 40s elsewhere (50s along the coast). Highs rise to near average (in the 70s) tomorrow as sunny conditions continue. Warm air advection returns Friday, though remaining mostly clear into the weekend, allowing for highs to reach into the 80s, with a warming trend possible into the middle of next week. OVernight lows gradually increase from mainly 40s Friday night to 50s over the weekend and 50s/60s next week.

A moderate risk of rip currents this afternoon becomes a high risk overnight tonight through tomorrow afternoon.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1117 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Mostly cloudy skies associated with a cold front passing through the region have led to MVFR ceilings at KBRO while KHRL and KMFE have improved to VFR conditions. Northerly winds of 15-20 knots, with gusts up to 25 knots are likely to continue at KHRL and KMFE as well increase to similar speeds at KBRO within the next few hours as a pressure gradient tightens behind the front. Clouds are expected to rise to VFR within the next few hours and scatter out later this afternoon, followed by diminishing northerly winds beyond sunset, leading to mainly clear skies with light winds overnight, continuing into tomorrow.

MARINE

Issued at 1117 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Adverse marine conditions are expected this afternoon, continuing into tomorrow morning as strong northerly winds result in moderate (5-7 feet) seas; a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM tomorrow morning. Conditions improve throughout the remainder of Thursday becoming gentle easterly winds by Thursday evening and slight to moderate (2-4 feet) seas by Friday morning with light westerly winds. Gentle to moderate southeasterly to southerly winds return by Friday evening, with slight to moderate seas continuing into next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1117 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Fire weather conditions remain at an elevated risk through this afternoon as the cold front continues passing through, leading to crashing relative humidity values and breezy to gusty northerly winds today. As 20 foot winds peak around 15 knots this afternoon, gusting to 20-25 knots, relative humidity values are expected to minimize near 20-29% along/west of US-281/I-69 C while relative humidity values fall to around 30-40% across inland portions east of US-281/I-69 C. Therefore, a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) remains in effect across all of inland Deep South Texas until 6 PM this evening. Although relative humidity values are expected to minimize above RFD criteria along coastal and island areas of the region, outdoor burning is not recommended.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 49 69 45 75 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 44 71 41 78 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 46 73 45 80 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 42 72 40 79 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 56 63 53 68 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 50 66 45 73 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175.