textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1222 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Key Messages:

- Unseasonably warm, dry, and breezy to windy conditions this week improve behind a cold front with deep moisture this weekend.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected Easter weekend and early next week, with early total rainfall estimates of 1 to locally 2 inches by Monday evening.

- Breezy to windy conditions this week and a cold front this weekend will create adverse marine conditions across the bay and Gulf waters.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

A much welcomed pattern change is finally arriving with the start of April. Above normal temperatures and very breezy afternoons continue through the remainder of the week before a cold front arrives Saturday night into Sunday, offering up a 10-20 degree cooler swing into Easter and early next week.

More importantly, aside from the break in the heat, confidence in beneficial rainfall is increasing for the holiday weekend. The chance for sea breeze convection has diminished below 10 percent through Friday, but there still may be some daily sign of life on radar and hopefully in some rain gauges. A much higher chance of rain is expected ahead of, with, and behind the frontal passage Saturday into Monday with a weak coastal trough and surface low hanging around, extending both instability and deeper moisture. WPC has introduced a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall from Saturday into Sunday morning. PWAT values near 1.8 to 1.9 inches arrive Saturday night into Sunday, well above the 90th percentile for early April. Extreme forecast indices also highlight the CWA for excessive rainfall Saturday night into Sunday night. Any thunderstorm in this atmosphere will be an efficient rainmaker and given the lack of rainfall for well over a month to month and a half for some locations, there is an increasing runoff and flash flood threat.

Long droughts in Texas upended by flooding rain is very well documented, so this will continue to be monitored through the week. There is still plenty of time to clean and prepare drainage ditches or canals and get any rain catching buckets or barrels into place. The best chance of any severe weather will be Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning. Stay tuned!

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

MVFR to VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Moderate to breezy winds are anticipated with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

MARINE

Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Southeasterly winds persist into the weekend with an enhanced pressure gradient along the lower Texas coast increasing winds each afternoon to SCEC and borderline SCA conditions. A cold front late Saturday into Sunday brings northerly winds and potential SCA conditions across the Gulf, as well as showers and thunderstorms, including some heavy to strong showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into early Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 73 88 73 87 / 0 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 69 92 70 92 / 0 0 10 0 MCALLEN 74 95 75 95 / 0 0 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 71 97 73 96 / 0 0 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 80 73 80 / 10 0 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 86 70 87 / 0 0 10 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.