textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1032 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Mainly dry conditions expected through midweek. Rain chances increase Friday into the weekend as a cold front approaches.

- Cold front could bring breezy conditions and coastal hazards late week in its wake.

- There is a moderate to major (level 2 to 3/4) risk of heat- related illness through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1032 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Warm, mostly dry conditions are expected through Thursday, with only isolated sea breeze showers or thunderstorms possible. Temperatures remain above normal with highs in the mid-upper 90s and heat indices reaching 106-111 through Wednesday.

Rain chances increase to moderate (40-60%) Friday as a cold front moves through Deep South Texas. Elevated rain chances persist into the weekend, particularly along the coast, as a coastal trough develops offshore. Breezy northerly winds behind the front Friday into the weekend may bring elevated surf, an increased risk of rip currents, coastal flooding, and the possibility of a Wind Advisory. Cooler temperatures are expected behind the front this weekend, with highs in the 70s-80s.

There remains some model disagreement regarding the timing and strength of the front, so forecast adjustments are likely in the coming days.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 611 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Expect an occasional gust around 20 kts through sunset before 5-10 kt southeasterly winds prevail overnight. Winds increase Tuesday morning, with gusts to 20-25 kts.

MARINE

Issued at 1032 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Moderate onshore to southerly flow and moderate seas 3-4 ft will continue through midweek. Rain chances stay low (generally 15% or less), with greatest chances during the afternoon. Each afternoon, caution conditions are possible on the Laguna Madre with gusty winds. An approaching cold front Friday will increase rain chances and deteriorate conditions, with Small Craft Advisories likely and Gale Warnings possible Friday into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 94 81 94 81 / 10 0 10 10 HARLINGEN 96 77 97 78 / 0 0 10 0 MCALLEN 98 80 99 81 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 98 78 99 79 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 83 89 83 / 10 0 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 79 93 79 / 10 0 10 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.