textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 517 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

-Rain free and pleasant conditions continue today, with a warming trend into the weekend

-Medium to likely (35 to 65%) rain chances arrive Sunday along a stalling frontal boundary

-Hazardous beach and marine conditions are expected behind the front on Sunday, persisting into Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1041 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

A persistent trough of low pressure with a series of winter systems works through the Great Lakes and New England into mid next week. Closer to home, a weak shortwave trough gradually moves east across Texas this weekend, followed by a brief 500mb ridge of high pressure, and then a stronger shortwave swings through Texas by mid next week. There remains some uncertainty of how strong this system can get or where it settles between northern Texas and northeastern Mexico.

At the surface, expect a relatively comfortable day today, with above normal temperatures returning Friday and Saturday. The next front arrives on Sunday before stalling or washing out. This keeps temperatures below normal Monday and near normal Tuesday, before warming again. Current CPC probabilities are at 70-90 percent for above normal temperatures Dec 18 through Dec 24.

The chance of rain remains low (less than 20 percent) and mainly along the coast into Sunday morning, increasing to a medium to likely (35 to 65 percent) chance of showers or isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, then diminishing again on Monday. The 8-14 day CPC outlook is now leaning toward below normal precipitation through Dec 24, at 33-40 percent. Confidence has remained a little low on the strength of the front Sunday into Monday locally and models have waffled a bit over the past 24 to 48 hours. A stronger front brings multiple hazards along the coast and offshore with gusty winds, showers, and cooler temperatures. Have hedged in the middle with NBM for now.

Patchy fog may be possible in the early morning hours into next week, with limited winds and multiple boundary interactions. Favorable beach conditions are expected into the weekend, with an increase in life-threatening rip currents Sunday into early next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 517 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Through 00z Saturday....VFR conditions will prevail through much if not all of the 00z TAF cycle. There could be a period or two of MVFR-IFR conditions developing, particularly later tonight.

Winds will be light and variable if not out of the south-southeast with speeds between 5-10 kts. There could some gusts between 15-20 kts, particularly during the afternoon hours on Friday.

MARINE

Issued at 1041 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Generally lighter onshore winds will maintain favorable marine conditions into the weekend. A cold front arrives or stalls across the waters on Sunday into early Monday with increased and gusty northerly winds and a medium to likely chance of rain, and building seas into Monday with Small Craft Caution to Small Craft Advisory levels.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 63 82 68 82 / 0 10 20 30 HARLINGEN 59 83 64 82 / 0 0 10 20 MCALLEN 62 86 67 85 / 0 0 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 58 84 63 83 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 66 76 70 76 / 0 10 30 40 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 61 80 65 80 / 0 0 20 30

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.