textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1250 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

- Continued low (10-20%) chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms today and Monday. More rain is possible in the Ranchlands and Plains midweek.

- Highs in the mid/upper 90s along with afternoon heat indices of 100-110 F maintain mostly moderate heat risks (level 2 of 4).

- A medium risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through at least Monday evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Isolated showers and storms will continue along the sea breeze through the afternoon hours. A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out, with a primary threat of brief heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning. Any activity should come to an end with daytime heating later this evening, with mostly rain-free conditions expected tonight. A mild night is expected with lows in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. Some low clouds may develop, but should dissipate after sunrise.

Generally rain-free and seasonably hot conditions are expected heading into the work week as ridging aloft briefly builds, but low rain chances (20-30%) return by mid week across portions of the region as weak disturbances aloft translate along the periphery of the ridge and interact with the high moisture content. The best chances will reside across the Northern Ranchlands, mainly during the peak heating hours of the day. Precipitation chances should come to an end by Thursday, resulting in rain-free conditions heading into the weekend.

Otherwise, expect seasonably temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 90s and lows in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. Persistent southeasterly winds will maintain elevated humidity across the region, which will aid in allowing heat index values to reach 100-110 degrees each afternoon. A moderate risk of rip currents will continue along the lower Texas beaches through at least mid week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

VFR will prevail through the forecast period at all TAF sites. Brief MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled out during the early morning hours, but should quickly dissipate after sunrise. Otherwise, expect persistent southeasterly winds around 10-15 knots with occasional gusts to 20-25 knots mainly during the afternoon hours.

MARINE

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail through the week, with moderate southeasterly winds and slight seas. Brief Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions cannot be ruled out each afternoon due to a locally enhanced pressure gradient. Otherwise, expect low rain chances (10-30%) each day, with the best chances on Wednesday. Locally enhanced winds and seas are expected within any showers and thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 80 94 80 94 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 77 95 76 95 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 79 99 78 99 / 0 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 100 77 99 / 0 10 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 81 88 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 92 78 92 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.