textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1126 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Key Messages

- Limited fire weather concerns due to the combination of drought conditions, dry air, and gusty winds.

- Above normal temperatures are expected to persist through the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1126 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Mid/upper-level ridging will persist over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley for the next several days, this will continue to foster the above normal temperatures and rain-free conditions. While a mid-level trough is expected to move by the north of the region around the middle of next week, and should impair the influence of the ridge, the current model guidance does not indicate a strong change in conditions to occur. Referring to the current Weather Prediction Center forecast, there are no frontal boundary that are expected to pass through the region during the forecast period.

A tightening pressure gradient over the region is likely to result in breezy conditions almost every afternoon during the forecast period. While the winds are expected to gust around 20 to 25 mph for through the weekend and Monday. Towards the middle of the week, some gusts could reach up to 30 mph over the region. The stronger winds towards the middle of the week could result in some fire weather concerns. While confidence is not very high for a Fire Danger Statement, the timing of stronger winds in the afternoon, which is usually the time when the environment reaches its lowest relative humidity value does leave some concerns. Anyone working with open flames or anything that could produce sparks should try to refrain from doing so and be very cautious.

Lastly, while the beach will be very inviting given the above normal temperatures, there is a moderate risk of rip currents for today. However, this is expected to become a low risk by tonight.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1126 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Generally VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the daytime hours and through the evening with light easterly winds. Several models have been hinting at some fog occurring during the overnight hours at all the TAF sites. While the models are suggesting that MFE could get to LIFR during the overnight hours and around sunrise. However, the current TAF package has MFE getting to MVFR due to the fog.

MARINE

Issued at 1126 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Generally favorable conditions are expected for the today through Monday, with light to moderate southeasterly winds and mostly low seas. However, by the middle of next week, more gusty conditions are likely to result in some adverse conditions each afternoon. Thus Small Craft Exercise Caution could be needed for Wednesday and Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 65 84 66 83 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 61 85 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 66 89 67 90 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 64 91 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 66 75 68 76 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 63 80 64 81 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.