textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 647 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Key Messages:

* Moderate to Major Heat risk is expected tomorrow and Wednesday and Minor to Moderate heat risk is expected for Thursday.

* A cold front is expected Thursday afternoon into Friday. This cold front will either stall over our area or push through by Friday afternoon at the latest. At this time, it is uncertain which scenario will play out.

* Either way, there is a low to moderate (20-50%) chance of precipitation Thursday into Friday. If the front stalls, rain chances could continue into the weekend.

* A moderate risk of rip currents continues through at least Tuesday evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

High pressure remains stationed off the coast for the next few days, allowing southerly flow and humid conditions to continue over the region through mid-week. This will support unseasonably hot and humid weather, with potential record high temperatures (particularly on Wednesday) and Moderate (level 2 of 4) to Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risks Tuesday and Wednesday. The pressure gradient will also tighten as a Pacific trough approaches from the west, which will allow for breezy conditions over the next few days.

Minor (level 1 of 4) to Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk is also possible on Thursday, but cloud cover is expected to increase as a cold front approaches the area, which will slightly lower daytime heating. At this time, it is uncertain whether this cold front will completely make it through the area or stall over the region. Either way, there is a low to moderate chance of precipitation (20-50%) Thursday into Friday associated with the frontal passage. The highest chances are expected to be overnight Thursday into Friday over the Low to Mid Rio Grande Valley.

If the front happens to stall, a coastal trough will likely develop just offshore that will support continued chances of rain into the weekend, especially near the coast. In addition, a frontal boundary will remain draped over the area a few days which will also provide lift for additional showers further inland. If the front pushes through instead of stalling, the rain chances will be more concentrated to Thursday and Friday, with drier conditions over the weekend. At this time, guidance is not in agreement as to which scenario will happen. A clearer picture should unfold throughout the week as the availability of closer- range guidance increases.

Due to a tightened pressure gradient creating increased winds and rougher surf, a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents is in place at area beaches from now through tomorrow evening.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 647 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

MVFR skies and breezy conditions are likely overnight tonight, with south-southeasterly winds around 10-15 knots, gusting to 20 knots. VFR skies return in the morning and south-southeasterly winds pick up to 15-20 knots, with gusts to 25-30 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are ongoing, and should continue intermittently over the next few days due to a tightened pressure gradient over the area. Conditions should improve later in the week as an approaching Pacific trough moves east of the area. A frontal boundary may either stall or move through the area Thursday into Friday, but does not look to significantly impact wind speeds or wave heights. Conditions look to be favorable for the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 75 90 77 94 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 72 93 75 97 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 74 95 79 100 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 72 99 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 82 77 85 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 89 76 93 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.