textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1200 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

* Low (15-30%) chances of showers and a few thunderstorms continue through tomorrow night, followed by much drier conditions by Monday.

* Minor to moderate (levels 1 and 2 of 4) heat risks today become widespread moderate heat risks by tomorrow as heat indices increase to 100-108 F.

* A medium risk of rip currents continues through tomorrow afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

The mid/upper level trough that brought heavy to very heavy rain yesterday will continue lifting northeastward over the Plains, causing upper level divergence to exit deep south Texas. Much drier conditions are anticipated today aside from a low (at most, 15%) chance of isolated showers, mainly along/east of US-281. Tomorrow, a weak shortwave rounding the base of the departing trough could bring a low (15-20%) chance of showers and a few thunderstorms along/east I- 69 E during the morning/early afternoon hours as well as a 15-30% late tomorrow night. Yet, this could change as some of the latest runs of cams and global models, though inconsistent, indicate a bit more widespread coverage of light to moderate rain and some thunderstorms, extending further inland. As moisture content remains very high, potentially maximizing as high as 2.0-2.5+ in. tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night, deeper convection can still produce moderate to heavy rain.

High pressure expands aloft over the Gulf on Monday and into at least the middle of this upcoming week, thus increasing subsidence and decreasing chances of rain into next weekend, though a daily shower or two cannot be completely ruled out along the seabreeze. This will cause temperatures to rise by a few degrees, particularly across the mid/upper RGV, where low/mid 90s increase to the mid/upper 90s by midweek, whereas mostly low 90s rise to the lower/mid 90s elsewhere. Increasing relative humidity into tomorrow, followed by more abundant sunshine by Monday are likely to elevate heat risks from a minor to moderate risk today to nearly widespread moderate heat risks tomorrow and onward, with maximum afternoon heat indices of around 100-108 F. SPSs for heat may be possible at some point during the week.

A moderate risk of rip currents continues through tomorrow afternoon.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

VFR conditions continue at this hour with scattered clouds, broken at times, along with gentle southeasterly winds of around 10-15 knots. Broken MVFR ceilings are anticipated at KBRO and KHRL either late tonight or tomorrow morning. Breezier southeasterly winds, with gusts up to 20-25 knots, are possible by late tomorrow morning as well.

MARINE

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds and slight to moderate (2-4 foot) seas continue through the day into this evening. Periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines are possible tonight through Monday night as moderate to fresh southeasterly winds result in moderate (4-6 feet) seas. Conditions ease just a bit following, with gentle to moderate southeasterly winds and moderate (3-5 feet) seas. Rounds of low (15-30%) chances of showers and thunderstorms continue through tomorrow night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 81 90 82 92 / 10 20 20 10 HARLINGEN 78 90 78 92 / 0 10 10 10 MCALLEN 80 92 80 93 / 0 10 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 94 78 94 / 0 10 10 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 86 84 87 / 20 20 20 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 89 81 90 / 10 20 20 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.