textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1037 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- Hot with generally rain-free conditions through late week. However, there is a low (10-30%) rain chance across the Ranchlands and near the coast midweek.

- Highs in the mid to upper 90s to around 100 degrees along with afternoon heat indices of 100-110 will maintain mostly moderate heat risks (level 2 of 4).

- There is a medium risk of life-threatening rip currents through at least Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1037 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Generally rain-free and hot conditions are forecast through late week as mid-level ridging builds into the region. However, low (10- 30%)rain chances are expected across the northern ranchlands and near the coast Wednesday as a mid-level disturbance moves over South Texas. The combination of high moisture content, weakness aloft and daytime will support mainly daytime showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has extreme northwestern Zapata County within a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 1 of 4) with the possibility of isolated flash flooding Wednesday into Wednesday night. Some convection will be possible across portions of the Rio Grande Plains Tuesday night and Wednesday night as well. Rain-free conditions, except for the coastal waters, return Thursday into the weekend as subsidence increases.

Near to slightly above normal temperatures are expected through the period with highs in the mid to upper 90s, except near the coast. High temperatures will be a few degrees higher by the weekend with several locations, especially near Falcon Lake, reaching the triple digits. Overnight lows generally range from the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. Elevated dewpoints and hot temperatures will lead to heat index values between 100-110 degrees each afternoon. This will maintain mainly a moderate heat risk (level 2 of 4) each day.

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue along the lower Texas beaches through at least mid week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Moderate and gusty southeast winds with a mix of some cumulus and cirrus clouds prevail across Deep South Texas early this evening. Southeast winds will decrease later this evening and become light overnight. Winds are expected to increase around 15 knots mid to late Tuesday morning with some gusts near 25 knots in the afternoon. Brief MVFR ceilings will be possible later tonight into early Tuesday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

MARINE

Issued at 1037 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Generally favorable conditions will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast through the weekend. Moderate southeast winds and low to moderate seas are expected through the period. However, brief periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will be possible at times in the afternoon and evening, mainly on the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters (0-20 nm) out. There is a low rain chance (10-30%) Wednesday and Thursday over the Gulf waters. Winds and seas will be possible with any showers and thunderstorms that develop.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 94 80 94 81 / 20 10 0 0 HARLINGEN 95 77 96 79 / 20 10 0 0 MCALLEN 98 79 99 81 / 20 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 99 77 100 79 / 20 10 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 81 88 82 / 20 10 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 79 92 80 / 20 10 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.