textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1239 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026
- Heat Advisories may be needed each afternoon. Heat Indices between 105-110F, potentially higher, are expected with a Moderate to Major risk of heat related illness.
- Low (15 percent or less) chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze each afternoon Thursday through Sunday, otherwise, dry weather is expected.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026
Record heat combined with the sea breeze, roaming outflow boundaries, and a stalling frontal boundary to kick up multiple strong to severe slow-moving thunderstorms this afternoon, with heavy rainfall and a few strong downbursts. With the excitement over, we now return to the previously messaged heat threat, with a Moderate (level 2 of 4) to Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk expected every day of the forecast and little to no relief each night.
The persistent ridge of high pressure across the Desert SW strengthens slightly into Tuesday, before allowing weaker pressure to build along the coast. This will maintain above normal temperatures across Deep South Texas through the forecast period but also allow humidity to increase mid to late week. There remains a low (less than 10 to 20 percent) chance of showers or thunderstorms along the sea breeze each afternoon Thursday through Sunday.
Heat Advisories may be needed each afternoon, with the highest Heat Indices occurring behind the sea breeze as it increases humidity from east to west.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026
VFR continues to be anticipated at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Clear to partly cloudy skies will occur with light winds during the overnight hours becoming breezy with higher gusts for the daytime.
MARINE
Issued at 1048 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026
Light to moderate southeasterly winds continue generally favorable marine conditions along the lower Texas coast with seas of 3 feet or less.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 98 81 97 81 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 101 78 100 78 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 103 81 103 81 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 102 79 103 79 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 89 81 89 81 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 96 79 96 79 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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