textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 514 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Key Messages

- A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for Kenedy and Brooks counties until 9 AM Saturday for visibilities of 1/4 mile or less. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for the Nearshore (0-20 NM) Gulf Waters and Laguna Madre until noon on Saturday as visibilities lower to 1 NM or less.

- Breezy to windy and dry conditions continue, leading to a limited fire weather concern each afternoon beginning Saturday.

- Temperatures remain 5-10 degrees above average, or warmer.

- There is a low risk of rip currents through Saturday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1006 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Unseasonably warm temperatures, dry weather and breezy to windy conditions are expected across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande into the later parts of next week. Mid/upper level ridging persists into Tuesday as a high pressure aloft over the Baja Peninsula slowly slides eastward, passing over our region Monday into Tuesday before departing over the Gulf.

In the immediate forecast, a moist airmass remains in place tonight east of a stationary boundary draped over the CWA. Onshore easterly lower level wind is expected to continue advect Gulf moisture inland tonight as surface winds become light or calm, allowing for widespread dense fog to develop across eastern portions of the Northern Ranchlands and portions of the Lower Texas Coastal Waters. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for Kenedy and Brooks counties until 9 AM Saturday for visibilities of a 1/4 mile or less. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for the nearshore (0-20 NM) Gulf Waters and Laguna Madre as visibility lowers to 1 NM or less. Patchy to areas of fog are likely across the remainder of Deep South Texas and a Special Weather Statement may be issued overnight for reduced visibility. Motorists and mariners are advised to use caution in areas of poor visibility.

A deepening area of low pressure over the Southern Plains leads to a tightening pressure gradient over the weekend into Monday, with gusts up to 20 mph on Saturday increasing to 25 mph, or higher, on Sunday and Monday. The pressure gradient tightens further and a south- southeasterly low level jet intensifies Monday night as a series of mid-level troughs result in the passage of low pressure systems over the Plains on Tuesday and again later in the week. Breezy to windy conditions develop in response, with gusts up to at least 20 mph possible region-wide and up to 30 mph, or higher, along east/east of US-281 possible each afternoon. Fire Danger Statements may be possible during this period as afternoon relative humidity values fall to 30-35% further west, but sustained southeasterly winds may increase lower level moisture enough to avoid issuance. Regardless, it is highly recommended to refrain from outdoor burning as the region remains in a drought with abundant freeze-cured fuels. Otherwise, temperatures remain 5-10 degrees above average, or warmer, reaching the mid/upper 80s east of I-69 E, low/mid 90s further west and into the 70s along the immediate Gulf Coast. Overnight lows in the 60s continue.

A low risk of rip currents continues through Saturday afternoon.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 514 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

LIFR and IFR conditions are expected to gradually improve to MVFR and VFR conditions by mid morning with dense fog gradually lifting and southeasterly winds begin to mix down. A few gusts to 20 kts are possible this afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1006 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Patchy to areas of locally dense fog are likely to become widespread tonight and a Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until noon on Saturday for the Laguna Madre and nearshore (0-20 NM) Gulf Waters as visibility reduces to 1 NM or less. Otherwise, gentle easterly winds overnight become moderate and southeasterly overnight Saturday along with slight to moderate (2-3 feet) seas, continuing through next Monday. Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines are likely by the middle of next week as a tightening pressure gradient results in moderate to fresh southeasterly winds and moderate (3-5 feet) seas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 83 66 83 66 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 86 62 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 90 67 90 67 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 90 65 92 64 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 68 76 68 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 64 81 64 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ250-251- 253>255-351-353>355-451.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ130-132-135-150- 155.