textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 155 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Key Messages:

* Dry and breezy conditions continue through Saturday afternoon due to a tightened pressure gradient.

* A cold front is expected Saturday night into Sunday morning which will bring moderate to high (60-90%) chances for rain through Tuesday morning.

* Most areas should receive between 1 and 2 inches of rain, but some areas could see locally heavier amounts of 3 to 4 inches. Isolated flash flooding is possible in low-lying or poor drainage areas that receive heavier rainfall.

* Temperatures will fall 15-30 degrees into Sunday morning. * A high risk of rip currents is expected over the weekend with elevated surf and minor coastal flooding near high tide cycles.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Dry and unseasonably warm conditions are expected through Saturday afternoon, ahead of a strong cold front that will pass through Deep South Texas during the overnight hours into Sunday. Showers and a few thunderstorms are highly likely both ahead of the front and after the front has moved through the area, with the rain expected to be widespread and beneficial. Chances tomorrow night range between 70-90% and stay high (70-80%) on Sunday. Latest guidance is indicating an increased chance of rain (around 60-70%) for both Sunday night and Monday as the frontal boundary may hang around our area longer than previously thought.

Most likely rainfall amounts between Saturday evening and Tuesday morning for most areas are expected to be between 1-2 inches, with some areas receiving closer to 3-4 inches in areas of locally heavy rainfall. Due to the unusually moist atmospheric profile, the Weather Prediction Center placed our entire CWA under a marginal (level 1 of 4) risk of excessive rainfall for Sunday. This means there will be a small chance for nuisance and isolated flash flooding in low lying and poor-drainage areas.

After the frontal passage, temperatures will be unseasonably cool Sunday and Monday before warming back to seasonal levels by Tuesday. On Sunday, some areas in the western portion of the CWA may not even reach 70 degrees, but the Lower Rio Grande Valley is supposed to be closer the mid-70s. Overnight lows Sunday night will be in the upper 50s/lower 60s. Be the end of next week, temperatures will be unseasonably warm again with dry conditions expected.

Hazardous coastal conditions are also expected with this cold front, including life-threatening rip currents and elevated surf, as well as some potential beach run-up near high tide cycles, as astronomical tides begin to increase over the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Mostly VFR conditions ongoing, however this is not expected to persist with lower MVFR CIGs forecast for the evening to early tomorrow morning period. Otherwise, elevated and gusty southerly to southeasterly flow to prevail past the end of this TAF cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Due to a tightened pressure gradient, SCEC conditions are ongoing in the Bay and the Gulf waters and are expected to improve overnight. However, SCEC conditions and Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to develop again by Sunday morning as a cold front passes through the area. This should hang around through mid-day Monday before conditions start to improve towards favorable. SCEC conditions could then develop again by Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 74 88 68 76 / 0 0 70 80 HARLINGEN 71 90 64 75 / 0 0 70 70 MCALLEN 74 93 65 73 / 0 10 80 80 RIO GRANDE CITY 72 93 62 68 / 0 10 90 70 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 80 71 74 / 0 0 70 80 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 72 86 67 76 / 0 0 70 80

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.