textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1255 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Key Messages:

* There is a continued Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of isolated severe thunderstorms and a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) of isolated flash flooding through tonight into early Saturday across Zapata, Jim Hogg, Starr, and western Hidalgo counties.

* These risks remain conditional, but if severe thunderstorms develop, there is a 5% probability of large (1+ inch) hail, damaging winds (60+ mph) and excessive rainfall.

* A moderate risk of rip currents will continue into this weekend.

* Minor to Moderate (Levels 1 of 4 and 2 of 4) Heat Risks through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1013 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

As mentioned for tonight, the severe weather threat remains marginal for portions of the mid Valley into the Ranchlands. Most CAMs continue try to develop Sierra Madre convection into tonight that eventually makes it way into Deep South Texas. Generally these models have been highly variable, some bringing in convection by midnight to the Rio Grande Plains, and others more near daybreak closer to the mid to lower Valley. So far, any development has dissipated before reaching the Rio Grande. PWATs this evening from the sounding at BRO have fallen to 1.68 inches, though forecast models continue to show higher PWATs near 2 inches across The upper Valley into the Ranchlands. If any showers or thunderstorms develop and make it to Deep South Texas, heavy rain will be possible. Confidence in both severe weather and/or flooding rainfall remains low to medium.

A mid-level trough will continue to move eastward through Texas this weekend, with high pressure returning by early next week. At the surface the stalled frontal boundary is slowly working its way north before finally exiting the region on Saturday. Rain chances will continue through Saturday afternoon with conditions drying out Saturday night into Sunday.

Another front will move south through Deep South Texas on Sunday night which will once again increase rain chances Sunday night into Monday morning.

Temperatures will be generally above normal through the forecast period, though a slight cool off to near or just slightly below normal for Monday and Tuesday in the wake of a cold front. Minor to Moderate Heat Risks are expected across Deep South Texas through the weekend.

There remains a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents into this weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Generally VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Light winds with partly to mostly cloudy skies will also occur.

MARINE

Issued at 1013 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Wave heights of 2 to 4 inches are expected with 6 to 7 second periods. There does remain a chance for showers and thunderstorms tonight into Saturday morning that could lead to locally enhanced winds and seas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 90 77 91 77 / 20 10 10 30 HARLINGEN 89 74 92 75 / 20 0 10 30 MCALLEN 90 76 93 76 / 20 10 10 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 90 75 94 74 / 30 10 10 40 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 78 84 78 / 20 10 10 30 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 76 89 77 / 20 10 10 30

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.