textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1222 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

- Daytime high temperatures in the mid-to-upper 90s and lower 100s, overnight lows in the upper 70s and lower 80s as well as afternoon heat indices of around 100-110 F continue.

- Breezy onshore winds (gusts to 25-30+ mph) return later in the week, building moisture content and increasing heat risks from minor and moderate (levels 1 and 2 of 4) to mainly moderate by Thursday.

- Daily low (at most, 15%) chances of rain along the daytime seabreeze increase later in the week to as much as possibly a low to medium (20-40%) chance over the weekend. - A low risk of life-threatening rip currents prevails through Monday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1014 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Much of the same weather pattern and conditions are likely to hold across deep south Texas through Wednesday, remaining mostly dry, with near to slightly above average temperatures and somewhat breezy conditions; highs in the mid 80s at the coast, upper 90s inland and lower 100s across the Upper RGV and portions of the Middle RGV continue along with a gentle to moderate southeasterly breeze, gusting to 15-25 mph in the afternoon. A brief isolated shower or two along the afternoon seabreeze is possible, but chances of rain are generally low, at most, around 10-15%. Afternoon heat indices of around 100-110 F are anticipated over the next 7 days, with heat risks ranging from mostly minor across the Northern Ranchlands to moderate over the RGV through Wednesday. Overnight lows in the mid- to-upper 70s inland and lower 80s along/near the coast persist.

Meanwhile, global models indicate weak troughing aloft expanding across Mexico and our region through the middle part of this week, further deepening into the weekend. At the surface, a tightening pressure gradient results in breezier onshore southeasterly winds, gusting to 25-30+ mph, advecting a plume of deep/tropical Gulf moisture inland and rising PWAT values to 2.0+ in., potentially by Thursday. This combination is anticipated to result in mainly moderate heat risks by Thursday as well as increase rain chances from showers and thunderstorms along the seabreeze from a low (15- 30%) chance on Thursday to as much as a low to medium (20-40%) chance over the weekend as shower and thunderstorm activity becomes more numerous. Lower chances of rain could linger into next Monday as weak high pressure aloft may begin to resume. Due to above average moisture content, there exists the possibility of heavy rain, especially within the deepest of convection. Additionally, as moisture and clouds build, high temperatures are anticipated to ease off a few degrees by Thursday, leading to mid/upper 90s inland while mid 80s continue at the coast.

A low risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through Monday afternoon.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Light southeast winds with mostly clear skies prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Light winds overnight will increase and become gusty later this morning into the afternoon. VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

MARINE

Issued at 1014 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Gentle to moderate, fresh at times, southeasterly winds and slight to moderate (1-3 ft) seas continue through Tuesday night before increasing back to moderate to fresh, with possible periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions, Wednesday and onward as a pressure gradient tightens again, building seas to moderate (2-4 ft). Moisture arriving to the Lower Texas coastal waters could bring a low to medium (20-40%) chance of rain and thunderstorms Tuesday and again by Thursday, becoming more widespread over the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 95 80 95 80 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 96 76 96 76 / 10 0 10 0 MCALLEN 101 79 100 79 / 0 0 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 101 78 101 77 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 81 88 81 / 0 0 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 79 93 78 / 0 0 10 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.