textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 508 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Key Messages

- Hot and dry conditions forecast to continue this week.

- Fire weather concerns look to increase Tuesday through Thursday.

- Adverse marine conditions and increased risks of rip currents are likely Tuesday through Friday.

- Rain chances increase this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1151 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

An upper-level shortwave moving across the Southern Planes Tuesday through Thursday will likely tighten pressure gradients across Deep South Texas resulting in stronger southeasterly winds. Hot temperatures will likely continue through the end of the week, with high temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s each afternoon. Rain chances increase to around 10% Wednesday due to increased forcing and mid-level moisture advection associated with the shortwave. The best potential for showers in thunderstorms looks to remain north of the CWA. Otherwise, dry conditions are forecast to continue through Friday.

Afternoon relative humidity values look to fall to 30-40% along and west of I-69C each afternoon through Friday. Afternoon 20 ft wind speeds are forecast to reach 15-20 MPH across most of the CWA Tuesday through Thursday. The overlap of stronger winds and low relative humidity may result in elevated fire weather conditions for a few hours each afternoon, primarily across Brooks and Jim Hogg Counties.

An upper-level trough over the West Coast looks to develop into a closed low along Baja California this weekend. Upper-level diffluence along the eastern periphery of the low will likely result in increased forcing over South Texas, which combined with increased mid-level moisture will likely result in increased rain chances this weekend into early next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 508 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

MVFR to VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Diminishing winds overnight will become breezy on Tuesday. Generally mostly cloudy skies are also anticipated.

MARINE

Issued at 1151 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Pressure gradients along the Lower Texas Coast are forecast to tighten Tuesday, resulting in stronger southeasterly winds during the afternoon through the end of the week. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines will likely be needed daily for the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters.

Conditions look to improve by the weekend, with light to moderate southeasterly winds and slight to moderate seas likely through the remainder of the period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 66 85 71 85 / 0 0 10 10 HARLINGEN 63 88 68 88 / 0 0 10 10 MCALLEN 67 92 73 91 / 0 0 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 63 93 69 94 / 0 0 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 69 78 71 78 / 0 0 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 65 85 68 84 / 0 0 10 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.