textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1216 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

- Minor to Moderate risk of heat-related illness this weekend, but "feels like" temps remain in the triple digits. Heat builds yet again next week.

- Low-end rain chances (20-40%) this weekend, with highest chances along the coast.

- Portions of the lower and mid-RGV have been upgraded to a Severe Drought (D2). Breezy winds and dry conditions may cause concern for fire spread by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Being sandwiched between two areas of high pressure will keep the forecast mostly copacetic. Deep moisture funneling into the region this weekend, paired with shortwaves riding along the periphery of these highs will allow for increased shower and thunderstorm chances along the sea breeze each day into Monday. 20% rain chances this afternoon gradually increase through Sunday, where rain chances peak at 40% during the afternoon, primarily along US281 and east, but a straggler or two may make it into the Rio Grande Plains. Deep moisture will bring PWATs around 2 inches by Sunday, but how long this moisture sticks around is dependent on the strengthening of high pressure aloft. If the atmosphere stays decently moist, rain chances may continue into Monday with continued activity (15% chance) along the seabreeze. Showers and storms this weekend may bring briefly heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds. Widespread rainfall amounts are not expected to exceed a half an inch, but locally higher amounts are possible under heavy or training showers.

Increased moisture, cloud cover and any rain will help to limit apparent temperatures this weekend - but guidance still suggests up to a sticky 109 heat index. Heat Advisories seem unlikely for the near-term, but Special Weather Statements (SPS) for heat remain possible. Ridging expands over TX early next week, returning southerly flow aloft and drier mid-levels. This will limit rain chances into the workweek, but will allow for heat to increase yet again. By early next workweek, Moderate to Major risk of heat- related illness returns, along with a daily chance for Heat Advisory or SPS. Next weeks re-heating will return gusty winds to 25+ mph in the afternoons.

Almost half of the CWA (45%) is experiencing a Moderate (D1) or worse drought, with portions of the low/mid RGV recently upgraded to a Severe Drought (D2). Dry fuels, gusty winds, and a dry atmosphere (minimum relative humidities 20-50%) may raise fire weather concerns by midweek.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Gusty south- southeasterly winds continue through the evening at all sites, lessening up near sunset. There is a low chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms this afternoon along the seabreeze heading inland. There is high uncertainty regarding if or when these showers will pass over a TAF site. If a shower or storm happens to pass over an airfield, expect briefly gusty winds, heavy rainfall reducing visibility and ceilings to MVFR levels, and possible lightning.

MARINE

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf are possible each day through the weekend, with chances increasing from low today (20%), peaking at low to moderate (30-50%) Sunday morning. Generally southeasterly to onshore moderate to gentle flow with slight seas will persist, with breezy conditions along the nearshore and Laguna Madre each afternoon. Flow strengthens next week to a more consistent moderate, and may return Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 79 94 79 94 / 0 20 10 30 HARLINGEN 74 95 75 96 / 0 10 10 40 MCALLEN 79 100 79 100 / 0 10 0 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 100 77 100 / 10 10 10 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 87 80 88 / 0 10 10 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 92 78 93 / 0 10 10 30

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.