textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1116 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

* Unseasonably warm, dry, and at times windy conditions will prevail through the middle parts of next week, posing fire weather concerns, especially this weekend.

* A shortwave is expected to pass through Texas this weekend, bringing a weak front. Though precipitation chances are currently expected to be low (less than 10%) for the CWA this weekend, a deeper-digging trough could increase our chances if guidance changes.

* Breezy to windy conditions ahead and behind the front will result in adverse marine conditions developing early Saturday through Sunday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1116 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Warm and dry conditions are expected to continue through the end of the week into next week. Some patchy fog could develop tonight, as winds become very calm and clear skies allow for ample radiational cooling for fog formation. Much of this is expected to be shallow field fog. This weekend, an upper-level shortwave is expected to move over Central Texas, which will bring a weak cold front to Deep South Texas on Saturday evening. Prior to the cold front's arrival, temperatures are expected to reach the upper 80s/lower 90s by Saturday afternoon. The front is expected to slightly cool high temperatures into the mid-80s for a few days before temperatures creep back into the upper 80s/low 90s by next Tuesday. Low temperatures will dip into the lower 50s for a few nights following the frontal passage before warming back into the upper 50s/lower 60s.

As of now, any rain and thunderstorm chances associated with this shortwave passage appear to be primarily north of the CWA, since the jet streak and best upper-level divergence is expected to pass to our north. At this time, our precipitation chances remain at less than 10 percent for our CWA. However, if the trajectory of this shortwave changes and digs further south, then we could see our rain and thunderstorm chances possibly increase Saturday and Saturday night. This will continue to be monitored throughout the week.

The biggest concern at present is the potential for fire danger this weekend associated with the frontal passage, as wind speeds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts up to 30. Very dry northwesterly air is also expected behind the front, which will lower humidities for many areas in tandem with the increased wind. See Fire Weather Discussion for more information.

Following the weekend frontal passage, zonal flow is expected for the region next week, which will keep the weather unseasonably warm and dry through at least mid-week. Mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions are expected, with winds shifting from the north- northeast on Sunday and Monday back to the east-southeast by Tuesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected at all airports this afternoon into the evening. Overnight, some patchy ground fog could develop, which could lead to IFR and LIFR conditions at area airports in the early morning hours. Winds are expected to turn southeasterly, becoming somewhat variable in the late overnight hours as wind speeds calm.

MARINE

Issued at 1116 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Favorable marine conditions are expected through the end of this week, before wind speeds pick up bringing Small Craft Exercise Caution and possibly Small Craft Advisory conditions to the Gulf Waters on Saturday. There is also a low to medium (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf Waters on Saturday as well. Adverse conditions are not expected to last long, and conditions should return to favorable by Sunday night at the latest.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1116 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Fire danger is expected to increase on Saturday into Sunday as a weak cold front approaches the area. This frontal passage is expected to increase winds up to 15-20 kts with the possibility of gusts up to 30. Dry air is expected to funnel in from the northwest following the frontal passage Saturday/Saturday night, which will decrease relative humidities below 25 percent for most of the CWA. Since fuels are already cured due to recent freezes, anything that catches on fire will catch quickly, and the higher wind speeds will help spread any fires that do catch. Fire Danger Statements and possibly even Red Flag Warnings could be needed this weekend. Outdoor burning will be strongly discouraged.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 62 83 65 82 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 59 84 61 84 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 64 88 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 62 87 63 90 / 10 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 64 73 66 74 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 60 78 62 79 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.