textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1113 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

- Low chances (around 20%) of rain Tuesday.

- Above normal high temperatures into the upper 80s and lower 90s this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1113 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Generally pleasant conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period for Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. High temperatures are expected to remain above average for this time of year with highs in the upper 80s possible each day due the the influence of a mid-level ridge to the south of the region. While closer to the weekend some places in the Upper Valley could even tip toe into the lower 90s. Rain chances are low (around 20%) for Tuesday into Wednesday with a mid- level trough moving to the north of the area. As for the rest of the period rain chances remain very low (less than 10%).

Another round of fog is possible tonight as the clear skies and weak winds will provide a favorable environment for fog. The SREF model currently highlights the Northern Ranchlands for the best chances for the development of fog with a medium chance (around 50%) for tonight. Areas along the coast have a low chance (around 20%) for the development of fog overnight.

Models do indicate that a cold front is expected to push through the region sometime during the weekend. While this front is not expected to bring much in terms of rainfall chances or much in temperature changes. The dry air behind the front along with potential for elevated winds could result in some fire weather concerns. However given the current time frame for this event, there are changes in the forecast that could still occur and it will be important to keep an eye on the model trends to see how this event unfolds.

Lastly, along the coast, while the risk of rip current is currently low and is expected to be low through Monday. By this evening, an increase in swells and winds over the Gulf waters will lead to an elevated risk of rip currents becoming more likely.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1113 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected to persist at all TAF sites through the period. There is a low chance of fog around sunrise tomorrow, but confidence was not high enough to include in the TAF package. Winds are generally expected to be light for most of the period and out of the south. Could see some stronger wind gusts around middle of tomorrow morning with some gusts going up to 25 or 30 knots possible.

MARINE

Issued at 1113 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Generally favorable conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast period for the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters with light to moderate southeasterly winds and low to moderate seas. Some Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are possible for brief periods of times during the afternoons especially towards the end of the forecast period. Could see some showers occur over the Gulf waters Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 64 81 64 82 / 0 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 59 83 60 83 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 62 87 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 60 87 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 65 73 65 74 / 0 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 61 79 61 79 / 0 0 0 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.