textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1235 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Key Messages:

* Moderate (40-70%) chances of scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday, decreasing to low (20-30%) for Saturday.

* Gradual warming is expected into early next week ahead of another approaching system. Conditions could become windier early next week as the pressure gradient tightens.

* Moderate risk of rip currents continues through at least Thursday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1101 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

A series of upper-level disturbances will likely promote synoptic scale forcing across the area, combined with deep layer moisture this will likely support daily potential for showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. Limited instability, especially during the afternoon hours, will likely limit the potential for strong or severe thunderstorms Thursday. Additionally, the 0z upper air observation shows a strong 700mb capping inversion which could further hinder the development of deep convection.

Rain chances increase to around 40-60% Thursday and 60-70% Friday before dropping to around 30% Saturday. By Sunday, rain chances look to fall below 10% with conditions generally remaining rain free through the remainder of the forecast as strengthening surface high pressure over the eastern US builds across the Gulf.

PWAT values above the 75th percentile could support heavy rain with some of these showers or thunderstorms, especially if any deep convection is able to develop. Probabilistic NBM mean 72 hour rainfall accumulations from 7 AM Thursday through 7 AM Sunday generally range from 1-2 inches across the CWA, with the higher amounts west of I-69C.

Easterly to southeasterly winds look to prevail through Saturday, before shifting more southerly to southeasterly through the remainder of the forecast. Wind speeds may increase early next week, with gusty winds likely each afternoon. A gradual warming trend looks to continue through the forecast, with high temperatures likely reaching the 90s early next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

VFR is anticipated at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Light to moderate winds are forecast with overcast skies. A TEMPO has been included for -SHRA and is based on the HRRR model, and reflects the possibility of diminishing convection in Mexico moving into Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley and affecting BRO, HRL, and MFE Thursday night.

MARINE

Issued at 1101 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Rain chances are forecast to generally range from 40-60% over the Gulf waters through Saturday. Otherwise, generally favorable marine conditions are forecast through Saturday, with stronger southeasterly winds and building seas forecast early next week. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution or Small Craft Advisories may be needed Sunday and Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 83 70 83 71 / 20 40 60 10 HARLINGEN 83 66 83 66 / 30 40 60 10 MCALLEN 85 70 85 71 / 50 50 70 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 84 68 84 69 / 70 60 70 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 71 77 72 / 30 50 50 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 69 82 69 / 20 50 60 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.