textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1033 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

* A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 6PM Tuesday evening due to elevated winds and wave heights.

* The ongoing adverse to hazardous marine and beach conditions are expected to continue through at least Tuesday.

* Temperatures will remain cool through Tuesday then gradually warmer by mid-week before another cold front arrives Thursday into Friday. This will increase rain chances later in the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1033 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Unsettled weather is expected to continue through the forecast period. The coastal trough/low will move farther eastward tonight into Tuesday as surface high pressure builds across central Texas. Cloudy and cool tonight with lows falling into the 40s, except for the 50s near the coast. Light north to northwest winds late this evening are expected to increase overnight, especially near the coast, as the pressure gradient strenghtens. Highs on Tuesday will struggle to make it out of the 50s/lower 60s at many locations. Skies may begin to clear from west to east by the afternoon but lingering clouds should continue near the coast. Another cool night is expected Tuesday night with lows in the upper 40s across the northern ranchlands to the mid 50s across the Rio Grande Valley. The NAM continues to handle this pattern well so far. Therefore, will lean towards the NAM or a NAM/NBM blend through Wednesday. Southeasterly winds look to briefly return Wednesday, before another cold front arrives on Thursday. This will likely allow high temperatures to climb into the low to mid 70s Wednesday afternoon before falling back to the low to mid 70s behind the front Thursday.

Rain chances will begin to increase Wednesday afternoon and evening, mainly over the Gulf waters. There is a medium (40 to 60 percent) chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into Thursday night with the approach and passage of the next cold front. There is a low to medium (20 to 40 percent) chance of overrunning rain/drizzle in the wake of the shallow cold front. High temperatures on Friday are forecast to be in the low to mid 60s. However, temperatures could trend colder with future model guidance, especially as snowpack becomes more established over the northern CONUS.

There is a High Risk of rip current through late Tuesday afternoon due to elevated winds and seas.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1033 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

MVFR stratus and light northwest to north winds prevail across Deep South Texas late this evening. Ceilings have recently fallen to IFR in the past hour at BRO. Will include a TEMPO for brief IFR ceilings. Otherwise, mainly MVFR ceilings and northwest to north winds are expected to continue overnight. However, winds are expected to increase and become moderate to gusty later tonight into early Tuesday morning, especially near the coast. Low ceilings should gradually improve to VFR by mid to late morning at MFE and HRL. However, MVFR ceilings may linger into the afternoon at BRO.

MARINE

Issued at 1033 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 6 PM Tuesday evening due to winds offshore and wave heights remaining elevated. Conditions will briefly improve late Tuesday into Wednesday as the pressure decreases. However, adverse to hazardous conditions are expected to return Thursday into Friday with the approach and passage of the next cold front. Small Craft Advisories will be likely be needed later in the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 56 51 59 56 / 20 20 20 10 HARLINGEN 53 48 58 54 / 10 10 10 10 MCALLEN 56 50 60 55 / 10 10 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 56 50 63 51 / 10 0 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 60 56 63 63 / 30 30 20 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 56 52 59 58 / 20 20 10 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday afternoon for TXZ451-454- 455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175.