textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 616 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

- Mainly dry, but there will be day-to-day or near day-to-day chances for showers and maybe a thunderstorm or two through Thursday or Friday of next week; low-medium chances (20-60%) Monday through Thursday.

- Temperatures will average out normal to warmer than normal through next weekend. Hotter than normal temperatures (90s) will develop by next weekend amid a building heat ridge.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Mainly dry conditions can be expected through the forecast period or through next weekend across Deep South Texas. However, there will be low-medium (20-60%) day-to-day rain chances beginning Monday and persisting through Thursday or Friday, courtesy of a nearby mid- upper level shortwave disturbance. Embedded thunderstorms are possible with any showers that do develop. Most of the activity will be isolated to scattered and diurnally driven. By Friday or Saturday, rain chances decrease as the aforementioned shortwave dissolves and high pressure builds into the region.

Despite the ridge flattening out during much of the forecast period, geopotential heights will still be positive on a southwest flow aloft regime to keep temperatures running normal to warmer than normal through next weekend. Hotter than normal temperatures return by next weekend as a 591 dam heat ridge builds over the region. High temperatures Sunday through Friday will range between the mid 80s near the coast to the lower 90s far west. Next weekend, high temperatures will range between the low to mid 90s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours, with light to moderate winds with breezy gusts. A TEMPO remains in the TAFs with timing based on the HRRR model.

MARINE

Issued at 1031 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Adverse marine conditions are expected through the forecast period. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions can be expected through the forecast period or through next week, thanks to a persistent and increasing easterly swell and on occasions afternoon winds. Day-to-day chances for showers and thunderstorms are possible over the Laguna Madre and Gulf Waters through at least the middle parts of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 85 70 86 72 / 10 0 20 40 HARLINGEN 85 67 86 68 / 10 0 20 30 MCALLEN 88 69 90 71 / 10 0 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 88 67 89 68 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 73 79 73 / 10 10 20 70 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 83 69 83 69 / 10 0 20 60

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.