textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 541 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Key Messages:

- Rain chances increase mid-week with the highest probabilities Thursday and Friday.

- Above normal daytime highs and overnight lows, with a Moderate to Major heat risk.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents at the local beaches this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

An upper-level trough looks to remain situated over the Western US through next week. A series of embedded shortwaves will likely move through the southern periphery of the trough beginning mid- week, resulting in increased forcing over Deep South Texas. Combined with an increase in moisture, with PWATs ranging from 1.5 to 2 inches by mid-week , this will likely result in increased rain chances beginning Tuesday night and continuing through the remainder of the week.

Heat will be a concern through the weekend and early next week. High temperatures are forecast to range from the mid 90s to around 100 each afternoon. Heat indices look to climb to around 105-110 degrees Monday and Tuesday afternoons, and heat advisories may be needed.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 541 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Breezy to windy conditions will occur at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours courtesy of an enhanced pressure gradient. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will also occur, with MVFR to VFR in place through the TAF period.

MARINE

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Adverse to hazardous marine conditions are forecast to continue through the middle of next week, likely requiring a combination of Small Craft Advisories and Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines. Gusty southeasterly winds will likely build seas to 5-6 feet over the weekend, with higher seas forecast early next week.

Light to moderate winds and moderate seas look to return through the later half of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 80 93 81 95 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 78 94 80 96 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 80 96 81 98 / 0 0 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 98 79 100 / 0 0 20 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 85 81 86 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 91 81 93 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155.