textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 518 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

- Continued low (10-20%) chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms today and Monday. More rain is possible in the Ranchlands and Plains midweek.

- Highs in the mid/upper 90s along with afternoon heat indices of 100-110 F maintain mostly moderate heat risks (level 2 of 4).

- A medium risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

130 AM CT radar shows diminishing showers and thunderstorms in Mexico just barely skimming western Zapata/Starr Counties, some may bring heavy rainfall over the next hour before falling apart. Isolated showers over the Gulf may continue heading northwest inland Sunday morning. Weak ridging building over the Gulf will limit shower coverage Sunday into early this week. However, with anomalously high moisture, there remains a continued chance (10-20%) of isolated showers and thunderstorms each afternoon through Monday, primarily along the sea breeze. Midweek, shortwaves on the periphery of a high pressure over central CONUS will interact with deep moisture in the high plains, increasing chances of rain in the Northern Ranchlands. This may bring showers capable of producing heavy rain, but the greatest rainfall totals are expected to fall north of the CWA. Mid-level moisture continues to depart late week, decreasing rain chances to less than 10% by Friday.

Breezy afternoon conditions and near-normal temperatures will continue through the forecast. Highs in the mid to upper 90s (upper 80s along the immediate coast) continue, but low 100s cannot be ruled out in the upper RGV and Rio Grande Plains through Monday. Peak heat indices in the afternoons in the triple digits to 110 are expected into the early week, decreasing daily to the upper 90s-105. At local beaches, a moderate risk of rip currents remains.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 518 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Through 12z Monday....VFR conditions will prevail through the 12z TAF period. There could be a few MVFR clouds around at times, especially at night.

Winds will continue out of the southeast 5-15 kts through the TAF period. Winds could gusts as high as 20-25 kts during the afternoon hours.

MARINE

Issued at 147 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Moderate southerly to southeasterly flow with slight seas persists. Gusty winds each afternoon may bring brief Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions to Laguna Madre. There is a generally low chance (10-30%) of isolated showers and thunderstorms daily, with highest chances today given anomalously high moisture, and Wednesday ahead of a stalling front. Seas begin to build to moderate early week ahead of the front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 94 80 94 80 / 20 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 95 77 95 76 / 20 0 10 0 MCALLEN 99 79 99 78 / 20 0 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 99 78 100 77 / 10 10 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 81 88 81 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 79 93 78 / 20 0 10 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.