textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 542 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

- Rain-free conditions and well above normal temperatures are expected through the week.

- Fog development is likely along the coast Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1105 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Calm winds and clear to mostly clear skies will allow for efficient radiational cooling tonight, witch paired with increased moisture along the coast could support fog development east of I-69C early Monday morning. HiRes guidance is in fairly good agreement on the geographical extent of the fog, however there is some uncertainty in the density of the fog. At least some patchy fog is likely, though widespread dense fog may be possible, primarily across Cameron and Willacy Counties.

Any fog that develops overnight will likely dissipate by mid morning with sunny skies and light southeasterly winds returning by Monday afternoon. High temperatures look to climb to the mid 80s Monday afternoon.

An upper level ridge over the central US looks to break down by mid-week, with generally zonal flow extending across the southern US. By the end of the week, an upper level trough looks to move into the Western US, which could drive a cold front through Deep South Texas early next weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 542 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Very light winds and mainly clear skies prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. A few areas of brief low clouds and fog have been observed near BRO and HRL. Will continue to include a TEMPO for MVFR/LIFR conditions at the HRL/BRO through around 14Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Very light winds early this morning will become east to southeast between 8 to 15 knots later this morning into the afternoon. Light winds are expected to return later this evening and overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 1105 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Generally favorable marine conditions are forecast to continue through the period, though brief Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines may be needed Tuesday or Wednesday. Light to moderate southeasterly winds and slight seas will continue for the next couple days. Stronger differential heating mid-week will likely lead to tighter pressure gradients along the Lower Texas Coast Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday, which would likely lead to stronger winds and moderate seas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 81 62 82 66 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 83 57 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 87 63 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 87 60 91 61 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 64 74 66 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 59 80 63 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.