textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1212 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

* Daily afternoon showers remain possible through the weekend due to unsettled weather pattern.

* Moderate Heat Risk returns next week as mid-level ridge returns.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Low chances (30% or less) of rain continue through the start of next week as the daily seabreeze activity is expected to bring some showers and thunderstorm activity each day. The higher chances of rain are generally for the coastal counties and chances of rain decrease further inland. Models continue to indicate that a mid- level ridge will move over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley by next week allowing for more rain-free conditions to set up. However, that does not mean that a rogue shower or two is out of the question.

The southeasterly flow at the surface along with the day time heating will continue to provide some level of support for the development for showers and thunderstorms over the next several days. PWAT values continue to linger in the range of 1.8 to 2.5 inches showing that there is plenty of moisture in the environment, thus it is possible that some showers and thunderstorms could even produce heavy downpours at times. Coverage is expected to be isolated to scattered since there is very little in actual forcing in the environment at this time.

Moving into next week, with the return of a mid-level ridge the focus of the weather will return to the potential heat related issues. As the surface flow will continue to remain out the southeast for the early part of next week, that means that the flow of moisture will continue, but the mid-level ridge will trap that moisture near the surface. Thus the relative humidity will be higher next week. At this time, the heat indices do mostly stay in the range of 105 to 108 at this point. However this will still mean that there is a moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk for the region next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Generally VFR conditions should continue through the along with light southeasterly winds. While afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible, confidence was not high enough to include in the TAF package.

MARINE

Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Gentle to moderate onshore flow and low moderate seas are expected through the period. However, showers and thunderstorms remain possible through the weekend. Given the amount of moisture in the environment, it is possible that some showers and thunderstorms could produce locally elevated winds and seas. However, the chances of rain will decrease next week with a mid-level ridge moving over the Lower Texas Coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 80 90 81 90 / 20 10 20 20 HARLINGEN 76 90 77 91 / 20 10 10 20 MCALLEN 78 92 79 92 / 30 10 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 75 93 77 94 / 30 0 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 86 83 86 / 20 10 20 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 89 80 89 / 20 10 10 20

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.