textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 525 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Key Messages

- Hot and mainly dry week is here.

- Weekend brings opportunity for rain.

- Wind + cured fuels = enhanced wildfire potential.

- Adverse marine conditions develop and persist.

- Continuous rip current threat.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 924 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

No significant changes to the current forecast philosophy. Generally dry weather with well above normal daytime highs and overnight lows will dominate through a majority of the period. This will be due to 500 mb high pressure that will gradually shift from west to east across Mexico and the Gulf of America, but will be in control throughout the shift over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Some very isolated showers over the extreme northern fringe of the northern ranchlands and the lower Texas coastal waters cannot be entirely ruled out.

However, a possible change in the weather pattern exists for the weekend. Closed 500 mb low pressure diving south into the Baja Peninsula, and eventually east across the Lone Star State, may bring isolated to scattered convection for Saturday and Sunday across the BRO CWFA.

Prior to the precipitation potential, a breezy to windy onshore flow will occur. Given the anticipated strength of the winds, and abundant cure fuels from prolonged drought conditions and a couple of episodes of freezing temperatures earlier this year, the need for a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement (or several) cannot be entirely ruled out, especially in the Tuesday through Thursday time frame.

Finally, building seas along the Lower Texas Coast will likely create a Moderate Risk to High Risk of rip currents at the local beaches daily.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Mostly clear skies and light southeast winds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Will include a TEMPO for HRL due to some light fog. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected today into early this evening. Southeast winds will increase and become moderate to gusty later this morning into the afternoon. MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to develop late this evening into the overnight hours.

MARINE

Issued at 924 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

It continues to be anticipated that a steadily enhanced pressure gradient over the western Gulf of America will produce unsettled marine conditions throughout the forecast period. Breezy to strong winds are likely, with moderate to rough seas expected. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and/or Small Craft Advisory are likely to be needed daily, especially for the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf of America waters, beginning on Tuesday and persisting through the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 86 71 85 71 / 0 0 10 10 HARLINGEN 89 68 89 67 / 0 0 10 10 MCALLEN 92 72 92 72 / 0 0 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 94 69 94 69 / 0 10 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 71 78 71 / 0 0 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 85 68 84 68 / 0 0 10 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.