textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 530 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

- Low to medium (20-50%) rain chances will continue this weekend, some locally rainfall is possible.

- There is a moderate risk (level 2 of 4) of heat related illness, with afternoon heat indices 100-110 degrees.

- There is a moderate risk of rip currents through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1037 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Rain chances will continue through the weekend as deep tropical moisture remains in place. The BRO 0Z sounding this evening indicated a precipitable water value of 2.12 inches. The combination of abundant moisture and daytime heating will support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. Rain chances are expected to fade Saturday night with some additional convection possible over the coastal waters. With precipitable water values over 2 inches, any showers and thunderstorms could lead to locally heavy rainfall. An isolated 1 to 2 inches of rainfall cannot be ruled out, especially with any slower moving convection. In addition to heavy rainfall, some stronger storms could produce gusty winds and small hail.

Rain chances are expected to end Sunday night as mid-level ridging builds into the region. Near normal temperatures are forecast to continue through late next week with highs generally in 90s. Afternoon heat indices will range between 100-110 degrees through the forecast period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Through 12z Sunday....VFR condiitons will prevail through the 12z TAF cycle, though there could be a few MVFR clouds from time to time.

Winds will be continue out of the southeast with speeds between 5-15 kts and gusts as high as 20-25 kts, particularly during the afternoon hours.

MARINE

Issued at 1037 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Favorable conditions will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast through late next week. Generally moderate southeast winds and low to moderate seas are expected through the period. However, can not rule out a brief period of Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines in the afternoon. A low to medium rain chance (20-40%) will continue through the weekend. Higher winds and seas will be possible with any showers and thunderstorms that develop. Rain chances fade Sunday night as high pressure builds into the region.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 94 80 94 80 / 10 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 95 77 95 77 / 10 0 20 0 MCALLEN 98 79 99 79 / 10 0 30 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 98 78 99 77 / 20 10 20 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 81 88 81 / 10 10 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 79 92 79 / 10 10 10 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.