textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 622 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

* Mainly rain-free conditions with seasonable temperatures will prevail through next week; low, non-zero probability of a rogue sea breeze shower or thunderstorm mid to late next week.

* Peak heat indices between 100-110F degrees will result in widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk across Deep South Texas each day. * Breezy conditions are expected to continue with southerly winds 15- 25 mph, gusting as high as 40 mph; winds could gusts over 40 mph at times, through Monday.

* These breezy conditions will result in day-to-day or near day-to- day Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) to Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions over the Bay and Nearshore Waters through early next week.

* Life-threatening rip and longshore currents are expected to persist at area beaches through next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1005 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Mainly rain-free and at times breezy conditions with seasonable temperatures will be the theme through the forecast period or through next week. A 591-594 dam sub-tropical heat ridge will main fixture to our dry and tranquil weather pattern through the forecast period.

Next week, Deep South Texas will sit on the west-southwest flank of the anomalously strong heat dome as it looks to shift northward over the Midwest/Great Lakes Region, which will result in a widespread heatwave across the central and eastern U.S. With the heat ridge displaced to our north, Deep South Texas will be spared from the brunt of the heat with temperatures being average for this time of year. Additionally, the northward displacement of the ridge could bring a low, yet non-zero probability of isolated sea breeze convection (showers and storms) each day or nearly each day Wednesday through Friday of next week.

An enhanced pressure gradient near the sfc will result in breezy conditions at times through the forecast period. Southerly winds 15- 25 mph could gusts up to 40 mph nearly each day through Monday. There could be an instance or two where winds gust over 40 mph through Monday.

As highlighted earlier, since the heat ridge/dome will not be directly overhead, temps will be seasonable. Daytime high temps will range between the mid 90s close to the coast to near 100F degrees far west/inland each day. Meanwhile, overnight low temperatures will be in the mid 70s across the Northern Ranchlands to the upper 70s/lower 80s along the Rio Grande Valley each night. Despite these seasonable level temperatures, there will continue to be widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk across the region through next week with peak heat indices ranging between 100-110F degrees.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

MVFR to VFR will continue to be the rule at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours, with breezy to windy conditions and mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.

MARINE

Issued at 1005 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Breezy southeasterly winds from an enhanced sfc pressure gradient could result in day-to-day or near day-to-day Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) or Small Craft Advisory (SCA) conditions mainly over the Laguna Madre and maybe the nearshore waters through Monday. Wave heights or seas will range between 3-5 feet each afternoon through next week. This will result in mainly moderate seas through the forecast period to at times Small Craft Exercise caution (SCEC) conditions, particularly through Monday of next week. Tuesday through Friday, low to moderate seas are possible. There is a low, non-zero probability of an isolated streamer shower or thunderstorm mid to late next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 94 81 94 80 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 96 79 96 77 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 99 80 99 79 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 101 79 101 77 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 81 87 81 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 80 92 79 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.