textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 101 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Key Messages:

* Light to moderate rain continues into this evening and tonight along/east of US-281, gradually becoming light or coming to an end.

* A High Risk of Rip Currents and minor coastal flooding persist through at least tomorrow afternoon, with conditions along the coast and over the marine gradually improving throughout the week.

* Below average temperatures prevail through tomorrow night and then slowly warm to slightly above average later in the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 101 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

In wake of the cold front that passed through last night and early this morning, a mid-level disturbance passing over south Texas continues to lead to areas of light to moderate rain across the coastal counties and into the Middle RGV, with the heaviest rainfall rates along the immediate coastline. At the time of this writing (12:41 PM), nearly all of our region has received at least 0.75-1.00 inches of rain in the past 24 hours, with the bulk of the heavier rain totals along and west of US-281, where strong thunderstorms produced 2-4 inches yesterday evening ahead of and along the cold front. A few locales may have surpassed 5 inches in the deepest of convection. Additionally, a few areas east of US-281 have also received at least 1-1.5 inches, or more, including locations in and around Harlingen, Sarita and closer to the coast. Much of this rain has been very beneficial as our region has been in an ongoing Moderate, Severe and Exceptional (D2, D3 and D4) Drought.

As the mid-level shortwave kicks off to the east into tomorrow, showers are expected to become light or come to an end this evening into tonight, leading to an additional 0.25 to 0.50 an inch of rain along/east of US-281, though the immediate coastline could receive up to 0.75 of an inch, or more. Chances of rain continue to drop off throughout tomorrow, down to near 10% or less by Tuesday morning, as a 1040-1045 mb surface high over southern Canada spills drier air southward through the Plains. Yet, additional weaker shortwaves aloft and lingering coastal troughing could keep a low (15-30%) chance of isolated and brief light showers across portions of the RGV and/or along the coast into Wednesday. Wednesday night, another slightly stronger disturbance aloft arrives over the CWA. Diurnal instability coupled with increasing low-level moisture could result in a low to medium (30-50%) chance of rain during the daytime on Thursday and Friday, followed by a low (15-30%) chance into next weekend.

Northerly winds persist through tomorrow night, remaining breezy, with gusts up to 25 mph, or higher, through this afternoon as a reinforcing shot of lower (925 mb) level high pressure continues southward through the region. Additionally, overcast skies remain socked in across the region into tomorrow, keeping highs in the 60s today, which is on the order of 20-25 degrees cooler than yesterday and 15-20 degrees below average. Temperatures fall to the 50s tonight and tomorrow night, rising to the 60s/70s tomorrow afternoon, which is still 10-15 degrees below normal. Temperatures moderate and warm further Tuesday onward, becoming slightly above average later in the week as southeasterly winds return. 90s are possibly over the weekend.

A High Risk of Rip Currents continues through tomorrow afternoon as winds remain elevated over the Lower Texas coastal waters, resulting in waves of 4-6 feet and periods of 7 seconds, making swimming conditions dangerous. Medium, or possibly High, risks of rip currents are likely to continue into the middle of the week. Minor coastal flooding remains possible over the next few days as well.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Conditions currently range from IFR at KBRO and KHRL to MVFR at KMFE along with light to moderate rain and north-northwesterly winds of 15-20 knots, gusting to around 25 knots. Intermittent showers continue through tonight, but progressively become lighter in intensity, with prevailing conditions expected to become IFR overnight and periods of LIFR continuing. IFR to MVFR skies are likely again tomorrow along with lighter northerly winds, though breezy at times. Light showers or mist may continue into tomorrow morning.

MARINE

Issued at 101 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Fresh to strong northerly to northeasterly winds and moderate (6-7 ft) seas continue into tomorrow morning, maintaining a Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM tomorrow afternoon. Marine conditions improve throughout the remainder of tomorrow and into Tuesday as winds become gentle moderate, turning easterly on Tuesday and Wednesday and southeasterly on Thursday along with moderate (3-5 ft) seas. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are possible next weekend as a pressure gradient tightens. Chances of rain gradually diminish tonight through tomorrow night though a low (15-30%) chance lingers into Wednesday. Low to medium (30-50%) chances of rain return Thursday into Friday accompanying a disturbance aloft.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 58 71 58 77 / 90 60 10 20 HARLINGEN 55 72 54 79 / 90 50 10 10 MCALLEN 59 73 58 81 / 80 40 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 55 70 56 78 / 70 20 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 65 70 66 74 / 90 60 10 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 59 71 60 78 / 80 60 10 20

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175.