textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 625 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Minor coastal flooding is possible through Monday morning at local beaches. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect until 7 AM.

- Mainly dry conditions expected through midweek. Rain chances increase late week as a cold front approaches.

- There is a moderate to major (level 2 to 3/4) risk of heat- related illness through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Minor coastal flooding will linger into Monday morning. The Coastal Flood Statement will end at 7 AM Monday as water levels are forecast to continue decreasing. South Padre Island webcams around Sunday evening's high tide showed narrow beaches, but little to no water reaching the dunes. There is a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents at local beaches for Columbus Day.

Warm and mostly dry conditions prevail for a majority of the week. There is a 20% or less chance of streamer showers near the coast early this morning, and isolated sea breeze showers this afternoon east of I-69C. Rain chances remain low (15% or less) through Thursday. Rain chances begin to increase late this week with an approaching cold front, bringing potential showers and thunderstorms Friday into the weekend. This front will hopefully bring relief from the heat, with near to below normal temperatures. This far out, there remains disagreement in timing and impacts associated with the front. Temperatures and rain chances along and behind the front will depend on the strength of ridging over the Gulf and how far south the troughing associated with the front extends. Continue to monitor the forecast, as adjustments are likely in the coming days.

Through Thursday, temperatures remain above normal with highs in the mid to upper 90s, and heat indices into the 105-110 degF range. Behind the front, expect highs in the 70s to 80s with lows in the 60s and 70s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to continue through the period. Southeasterly winds are forecast to increase by late morning, with gusts to around 20 knots this afternoon. A slight increase in cloud cover is likely this afternoon, with the passage of the sea breeze.

MARINE

Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Moderate onshore to southerly flow and moderate seas 3-4 ft will continue through midweek. Rain chances stay low (generally 20% or less), with greatest chances during the afternoon. An approaching cold front late this week will deteriorate conditions, with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible Friday into the weekend. Rain and thunderstorm chances increase to moderate Friday into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 94 80 94 81 / 10 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 96 77 97 77 / 10 0 0 0 MCALLEN 98 80 99 80 / 10 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 98 78 99 78 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 82 89 82 / 10 0 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 79 93 79 / 10 0 10 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ451- 454-455.

GM...None.