textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1138 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

- Air quality remains moderate to unhealthy today into Saturday, with haze and fog potentially limiting visibility.

- Above normal temperatures continue through the remainder of February, with a cold front bringing near to slightly below normal temperatures Sunday into Monday morning.

- A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for portions of the ranchlands and brush country late Saturday and additional fire weather products will be needed for Sunday and mid to late next week.

- Dangerous coastal and marine conditions behind the front are likely Saturday night and into the beginning of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1138 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

The next system aloft swings into the Southern Plains Friday night into Saturday, with a frontal boundary at the surface dropping south through Deep South Texas, bringing cooler temperatures and a very small chance of rain. Expect above normal temperatures to continue prior to the front, dropping below normal Sunday afternoon and Monday morning, and back to near normal Monday afternoon, then off to the races the rest of the week once again. A weak frontal boundary or wind shift Thursday into Friday brings another round of northerly winds and dry air.

Fire weather concerns continue to be the main hazard threat inland through the remainder of February and peak of the dormant fire weather season. Abundant cured fuels under moderate to now exceptional drought conditions are only waiting for a spark and some wind. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for late Saturday across Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, and Starr counties. Additional fire weather watches or products may be needed Sunday, and mid to late next week.

Air quality has been moderate to unhealthy across most of Deep South Texas the last two days, due to lingering haze and agricultural smoke or smog, and may continue through at least Saturday morning. Patchy fog and dense fog are expected to develop tonight. A Dense Fog Advisory may be needed for all or portions of Deep South Texas.

Along the beaches of the lower Texas coast, expect persistent marine fog into late Saturday morning and a moderate risk of rip currents to deteriorate into a high risk by Saturday night, leading to an eventual Rip Current Statement issuance, along with a High Surf Advisory and minor coastal flooding. A Wind Advisory may be needed across the coast or island portions of Kenedy, Willacy, and Cameron counties on Sunday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

VFR to MVFR conditions are expected to prevail through most of the TAF period with haze dropping visibility this afternoon into tonight and patchy fog and dense fog expected to develop late tonight. IFR or LIFR conditions are expected where any dense fog develops. A cold front works south through the RGV on Saturday, clearing any haze or fog and eventually clearing skies.

MARINE

Issued at 1138 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Marine fog and haze is expected to persist across the nearshore waters and occasionally the bay into Saturday afternoon. A Dense Marine Fog Advisory is in effect through 12 PM Saturday. A cold front arrives on Saturday with northerly winds and elevated seas into Monday. Have issued a Gale Watch, with the best chance of persistent gale force wind gusts at this time expected to be over the offshore waters. Southerly winds return on Tuesday, but increase into Wednesday, allowing a brief improvement on Tuesday, then SCEC to SCA conditions Wednesday into Thursday. The next frontal boundary arrives Thursday with northerly winds quickly turning easterly into Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1138 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

With abundant cured fuels and worsening drought conditions, now into D4, fire weather concerns are mounting across Deep South Texas through the remainder of February. Saturday RH values drop late afternoon behind the next frontal boundary with wind gusts potentially pushing a rare evening Fire Danger Statement criteria. Red Flag criteria will likely occur just upstream of the Rio Grande across EWX and CRP CWAs.

For now, have issued a last minute Fire Weather Watch to give the evening shift another set of guidance but start the messaging. By Sunday, very dry air has arrived and the location of the highest winds will determine if Red Flag Warnings or Fire Danger Statements will be needed. Additional Fire Weather Watches may be issued by tomorrow for Sunday. Increased winds on Tuesday and Wednesday and drier air arriving Thursday into Friday may drive additional fire weather products. All the ingredients are there, fire prevention messaging should be a top focus until drenching rainfall occurs.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 88 68 86 57 / 0 0 10 20 HARLINGEN 92 63 84 50 / 0 0 10 10 MCALLEN 96 68 86 54 / 0 0 20 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 94 65 86 50 / 0 0 20 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 68 77 59 / 0 0 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 86 65 82 55 / 0 0 10 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening for TXZ248>250-252.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Saturday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155.

Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.