textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 605 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Key Messages:

- Rain chances are forecast to increase again Tuesday and Wednesday as the next system moves into the area.

- Temperatures will increase through the week with most of the region in the mid to upper 90s by late week.

- A moderate risk of rip currents continues into Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1048 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Drier weather is forecast for the area Monday, with rain chances generally remaining below 10% with mostly sunny skies. Some showers and thunderstorms may develop over Mexico Monday afternoon, however most guidance keeps the development south of the area, where better instability and forcing are likely.

Rain chances are forecast to increase again Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper level trough moves into West Texas. PWAT values are forecast to increase above 2 inches again Tuesday and Wednesday, which could support heavy rainfall across portions of the CWA. Given the antecedent soil moisture from recent rainfall, some isolated to scattered slash flooding will be possible with these storms. The Weather Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for the northwestern half of the CWA Tuesday and the eastern half of the CWA Wednesday. Some of these thunderstorms storms may be strong to severe Tuesday as they approach Deep South Texas, and the Storm Prediction Center has Zapata County under a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather.

Drier conditions look to return again Thursday and Friday, though some isolated showers or thunderstorms along the sea breeze cant be ruled out Thursday afternoon.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Through 12z Tuesday....VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 12z TAF period. There could be a few MVFR clouds around, particularly through the overnight hours.

Light and variable to calm winds will pick up out of the east- northeast component today with speeds between 5-10 kts.

MARINE

Issued at 1048 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Generally favorable marine conditions are forecast to continue through much of the period, though Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines may be needed Tuesday and Wednesday with wind speeds increasing to 15 to 20 knots. There is a 50-70% chance for showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters Tuesday night into Wednesday. Otherwise light to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast to continue.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 89 76 91 80 / 10 0 10 30 HARLINGEN 89 72 92 77 / 10 0 10 40 MCALLEN 91 75 92 78 / 0 0 10 50 RIO GRANDE CITY 91 74 92 75 / 0 0 10 60 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 79 85 81 / 10 0 0 30 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 87 76 89 79 / 10 0 10 40

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.