textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 511 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

- Sunny Friday, moderate rain chances return Saturday.

- A cold front Monday will bring low rain chances (20-30%) to areas near the coast along with a temperature decrease.

- Beach and marine hazards are expected late this weekend into early next week, due to stronger winds associated with the front and east-northeasterly fetch.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Dry air funneling in behind Thursday's cold front is dissipating the remaining clouds and should leave a mostly clear, pleasant Friday. Light winds tonight and clear skies will allow for radiational cooling which could lead to fog development in the early hours, particularly in the upper RGV, Rio Grande Plains, and northern Ranchlands. Expect morning lows in the 50s (60s along the coast), and highs in the mid-upper 70s. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few places in the RGV reach the 80s as northerly winds shift back to easterly through the morning.

This easterly flow will allow atmospheric moisture to deepen, providing a nice environment for a shortwave ahead of a trough over the western US to interact with. This will bring low to moderate (30-50%) rain chances to the CWA Saturday as a cluster of showers moves from west to east. Widespread forecast rainfall amounts are quite low - less than a half inch. Localized amounts of an inch or two are possible, but the greatest amounts are expected offshore.

By Saturday night, the majority of activity moves offshore, leaving a chance of showers along the coast through Tuesday. A cold front early next week will bring breezy winds Monday, and escort any lingering moisture south. There is a chance for a line of showers along this front, but most deterministic guidance agrees this line clips the coast, leaving highest PoPs along the coast, decreasing inland. There remains significant enough disagreement between models to mention uncertainty with its arrival time - fropa timing will impact forecast temperatures Monday. GFS points to a later arrival (during the day Monday), whereas ECMWF suggests a Sunday night arrival. Earlier arrival would bring earlier CAA, limiting daytime highs on Monday.

Temperatures climb into the 80s by Sunday ahead of the cold front. Monday, keeping an earlier fropa (prior to sunrise) and going with highs in the 70s, but stay tuned for changes to the forecast as these may change. Tuesday morning will be chillier with lows in the 50s (60s near the coast), and highs a touch cooler in the 70s. Models begin to diverge on the upper level pattern through the end of the period, but hints at another chance of rain late week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 511 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Through 12z Saturday.....Any lingering MVFR-LIFR mist/fog from the overnight will scour out by 15z this morning giving way to a return to VFR conditions. VFR conditions will prevail at all of the terminals through the remainder of the 12z TAF cycle under sunny to mostly sunny skies.

Light and variable to calm winds from overnight become easterly later on today with speeds between 5-10 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 1100 PM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Friday should be a pleasant day with gentle onshore winds and slight seas. Conditions begin to degrade Saturday with a tightening pressure gradient, building seas to moderate and a fresh southeasterly breeze into early next week. Showers and thunderstorms beginning Saturday will continue into early next week, diminishing behind a cold front passing Monday. Small Craft Caution conditions are likely this weekend through Tuesday, with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible - most likely late Saturday, and again near fropa.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 80 67 80 72 / 0 0 20 10 HARLINGEN 78 63 79 68 / 0 0 40 0 MCALLEN 79 62 80 69 / 0 0 40 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 79 61 80 67 / 0 0 50 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 73 78 74 / 0 0 30 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 67 79 70 / 0 0 30 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.