textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 648 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Key Messages:

* Low to moderate (20-30%) chances of showers and a few thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.

* Drier conditions and gradual warming is expected to commence Monday.

* A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through tomorrow evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

An upper-level disturbance combined with deep moisture over the region continues to support showers and occasional thunderstorms over the next few days. Shower activity is ongoing, and is now expected to continue intermittently through Sunday. Precipitation probabilities are low to moderate (20 to 30%) for Saturday, and should consist of mostly light scattered showers throughout the day. A small thunderstorm or two is also possible.

Precipitation chances have increased for Sunday to around 20 to 30%. There may be a few showers throughout the earlier part of the day Sunday, but the main chance of precipitation on Sunday will be a conditional threat for some potentially strong thunderstorms that could form off the Sierra Madres and move into the western portion of the CWA. Some CAM models have been more bullish than others in predicting whether initiation will even happen, along with the strength of these storms if they do happen to form. Therefore, forecast confidence is low at this time. Nevertheless, the Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Starr and Zapata Counties in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms. We will continue to monitor.

Conditions are expected to dry out on Monday, with temperatures warming slightly above seasonal levels starting Monday through the end of the week as high pressure takes hold over the Gulf. Current onshore winds will veer more southeasterly by early next week, which will support this warming trend. Wind speeds could also increase later in the week as a pressure gradient tightens ahead of the next approaching system.

A moderate risk of rip currents remains in place through at least tomorrow evening.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 648 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Predominately VFR conditions are forecast to continue this evening. Some lingering showers around MFE may briefly drop visibilities to MVFR levels. Rain chances look to decrease overnight, though MVFR ceilings will likely develop early Saturday morning. VFR conditions will likely return shortly after sunrise, though probabilities for showers and thunderstorms increase around late morning into the early afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1214 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Conditions should stay favorable through the early part of the weekend with light to medium winds and low to moderate seas. The exception would be in the vicinity of any heavier rain showers or thunderstorms that develop offshore. SCEC conditions are possible again by the end of the weekend into early next week as a pressure gradient tightens.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 71 84 72 84 / 10 30 10 10 HARLINGEN 68 86 70 87 / 10 30 10 10 MCALLEN 72 89 75 89 / 10 30 10 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 70 88 72 89 / 20 30 10 30 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 79 73 79 / 10 20 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 70 84 71 84 / 10 30 10 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.