textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1043 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

* Warmer than normal temperatures, rain-free, and at times breezy conditions can be expected through the middle parts of next week.

* A heat spike with record to near record-breaking temperatures is expected to occur on Thursday.

* Elevated fire weather concerns are expected on Thursday. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect from Noon to 6 PM CDT Thursday for Cameron, Willacy, Kenedy, and southern Hidalgo counties.

* Adverse to hazardous marine/coastal conditions are expected to continue on Thursday before improving Friday through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1043 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

An anomalously strong 585-590 dam Sonoran heat dome situated over the Baja Peninsula will continue to drive unseasonably warm temperatures across the Southwestern U.S., including us here in Deep South Texas. This weather feature will remain a fixture to the weather pattern as it propagates eastward over Texas this upcoming weekend into early next week supporting the continuation of warmer than normal temperatures into at least the middle parts of next week. A heat spike, driven by the combination of the aforementioned heat ridge and compressional heating (downsloping) off the Sierra Madre from a dryline, will result in record to near record-breaking temperatures on Thursday (February 26) across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley (see CLIMATE SECTION for more details).

A dryline is expected to pass through the western half of Deep South Texas and the Upper Rio Grande Valley before stalling near or just east of IH-69C on Thursday. This feature combined with breezy southerly winds will spark elevated fire weather conditions on Thursday. A Fire Danger Statement (RFD) has been issued for coastal and inland Cameron, Willacy, and Kenedy counties, and southern Hidalgo county from Noon to 6 PM CDT on Thursday (see FIRE WEATHER SECTION for more details).

Outside of the early season warmth/heat spike and elevated fire concerns on Thursday, rain-free conditions will prevail through the forecast period or through the middle parts of next week.

Widespread 90s can be expected on Thursday across much of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley with 100s common along and west of IH-69C. High temperatures will range between the mid 80s (east) and mid 90s (west) for the most part through the remainder of the forecast period or through Thursday of next week. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 60s across Deep South Texas and the RGV through the forecast period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1043 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Through 06z Friday....VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 06z TAF cycle under mainly clear skies.

Southerly winds will prevail through the forecast period with speeds between 5-15 kts and gusts as high as 25-30 kts.

MARINE

Issued at 1043 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Laguna Madre till 6 AM CDT Thursday and till Noon CDT Thursday. Adverse (Small Craft Exercise Caution) conditions will then take place through Thursday night. Favorable marine conditions with low to moderate winds and seas will take place Friday through Monday night. Adverse marine (Small Craft Exercise Caution) conditions will develop on Tuesday and persist through Thursday as winds strengthen on an enhanced pressure gradient over the region.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1043 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

A Fire Danger Statement (RFD) has been issued from Noon to 6 PM CDT Thursday for coastal and inland Cameron, Willacy, and Kenedy counties, and southern Hidalgo county.

A dryline is expected to pass through the western half of Deep South Texas and the Upper Rio Grande Valley before stalling near or just east of IH-69C on Thursday. The dryline is expected to sharply reduce dewpoint (Td) temperatures and relative humidity (RH) values. Meanwhile, a tightening pressure gradient along and east of the dryline will result in breezy southerly winds.

The combination of low relative humidity (RH) levels, breezy southerly winds, cured fuels, and very dry antecedent soils will result in elevated fire weather conditions across much of Deep South Texas including the highly populated areas along the Rio Grande Valley. Texas A&M Forest Service's Energy Release Component (ERC) between 75-89% combined with the variables mentioned above supports a "High Fire Danger" across all of Deep South Texas on Thursday (February 26, 2026).

Minimum RH values of less than 20% are expected along and west of IH- 69C, and between 20-45% east of IH-69C Thursday afternoon. An enhanced pressure gradient along and east of IH-69C will result in breezy southerly winds 15-20 mph with peak wind gusts between 25-30 mph.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1043 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

A heat spike, driven by the combination of the aforementioned heat ridge and compressional heating (downsloping) off the Sierra Madre from a dryline, will result in record to near record-breaking temperatures on Thursday (February 26) across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Below are the record highs for February 26 for our three climate sites.

Record High Temperatures for February 26:

* Brownsville (BRO): 90F degrees in 1971 * Harlingen (HRL): 95F degrees in 1913 * McAllen (MFE): 97F degrees in 1962

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 66 88 66 85 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 62 94 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 64 99 66 91 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 58 101 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 68 79 67 76 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 64 89 63 81 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for TXZ451-454- 455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175.