textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1033 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

- Life-threatening rip currents are expected Tuesday and again this weekend along beaches of the lower Texas coast.

- A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect until 7 AM Tuesday for narrow beaches and minor coastal flooding.

- There is a medium (30 to 40 percent) chance of showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday.

- Temperatures gradually warm above normal by next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1033 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

A strong 500mb low swings inland along the West Coast and into the Rockies by late this week, nudging the ridge across Texas out into the northern Gulf. Weak low pressure and a passing shortwave bring a brief medium (30-40 percent) chance of showers and thunderstorms tonight into Tuesday afternoon under the ridge. POPs then drop to below 10 percent Wednesday through Saturday. A surface low develops across the Southern Plains over the weekend and drops into East Texas by Sunday, dragging a cold front south toward Deep South Texas, with a low (less than 25 percent) chance of showers or thunderstorms.

Expect seasonal temperatures gradually warming through mid-week, warming a couple of degrees above normal Friday, and then adding a couple more degrees on Saturday and Sunday, bringing a moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk back to Deep South Texas and near triple digit heat across the brush country and upper valley.

Life-threatening rip currents will continue along the lower Texas coast Tuesday and return again this weekend into early next week. Astronomical tides continue to diminish into mid-week with narrow beaches still likely Tuesday night, but probably falling short of any Coastal Flood Statement, especially with a lack of surf to push high tide.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with easterly winds and isolated showers late Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1033 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

The pressure gradient continues to weaken with generally light to moderate onshore flow turning southeasterly into next weekend. A weak cold front may work south through the coastal waters on Sunday with light to moderate northeasterly winds. Coastal showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible through Tuesday morning and again Sunday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 90 75 88 71 / 0 30 30 0 HARLINGEN 91 71 89 67 / 0 20 40 0 MCALLEN 95 73 92 71 / 0 10 30 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 94 69 91 68 / 0 0 20 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 85 79 85 78 / 0 40 30 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 74 86 71 / 0 30 40 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.