textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 629 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Key Messages:

* Moderate to high (40-60%) chances of scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two this evening through Friday, decreasing to moderate (40-50%) for Saturday, and low (20-30%) Sunday.

* Drier conditions and gradual warming is expected early next week ahead of another approaching system. Conditions could become windier early next week as the pressure gradient tightens.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1101 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Rain chances continue to remain elevated this weekend as a series of upper-level shortwaves traverse Texas. Deep layer moisture with PWAT values between 1.5 and 1.7 inches and synoptic forcing will likely continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday and into the day Saturday, with more isolated convection forecast Sunday. Limited instability, generally around 500 J/kg or less will likely hinder the development of any strong or severe thunderstorms. However, given the ample moisture, heavy rainfall could be possible with these showers and thunderstorms. Even with the recent rainfall, soil conditions are still fairly dry, so rainfall associated with these storms would likely be beneficial, though some minor ponding of water in poor drainage areas is possible.

Drier conditions are forecast to return Monday, with the remainder of the forecast remaining rain free. A gradual warming trend will continue through the forecast, with high temperatures forecast to range in the 80s through Saturday before climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

A mix of VFR and IFR/MVFR ceilings with light winds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Most of the convection from overnight have moved east of the aerodromes, however, some lingering SHRA's may continue for the next hour or so. A mix of MVFR and VFR conditions will be likely today as additional convection is expected to redevelop again later this morning into the early afternoon. The latest HRRR shows some activity near the coast with additional convection between 21-24Z. MVFR ceilings/visibilities will be possible late in the period.

MARINE

Issued at 1101 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Rain chances remain elevated through the weekend, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through Sunday. Otherwise, generally favorable marine conditions are forecast through Saturday with light to moderate southeasterly winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds and seas are forecast to increase Sunday, likely requiring Small Craft Should Exercise Caution statements through mid-week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 83 71 84 73 / 50 20 40 10 HARLINGEN 84 67 86 69 / 60 10 40 10 MCALLEN 87 72 88 74 / 60 20 50 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 86 70 88 72 / 50 20 50 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 72 78 73 / 50 10 40 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 82 70 83 71 / 50 10 40 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.