textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 631 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

- Hazardous beach and marine conditions continue this weekend. Coastal flooding, dangerous surf, life-threatening rip currents, and rough seas are likely along the lower Texas beaches and Gulf waters.

- Mainly dry conditions expected through the middle of next week, with low rain chances returning by Thursday/Friday.

- Mostly minor risks of heat-related illnesses (level 1/4) become moderate (level 2/4) by next Monday as deep low-level moisture returns.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1017 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

The primary focus through the weekend remains coastal impacts from long period swells associated with Hurricane Isaias. Elevated surf with 4 to 7 foot waves at local beaches maintains a High Surf Advisory through this evening and a High Risk of rip currents through at least Sunday morning. Wave runup along with the new moon will support coastal flooding, with highest water levels near high tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect through Sunday morning. Conditions gradually improve early next week.

Otherwise, warm and mostly dry conditions prevail. Rain chances remain low through midweek, with isolated sea breeze showers possible daily. Rain chances begin to increase late next week with an approaching cold front, bringing potential showers and thunderstorms Thursday/Friday into next weekend. Temperatures remain near to just above normal with highs in the low to mid 90s this weekend, and mid to upper 90s next week. Increasing low level moisture will push heat indices into the 100-110 degF range beginning Monday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to continue through the period. Calm winds this morning are forecast to increase out of the east to southeast by late morning into the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1017 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Elevated seas and long period swell will gradually diminish later this weekend. A Small Craft Advisory in effect until 7 AM Saturday for the Gulf waters will likely become Small Craft Exercise Caution through at least Saturday night. Moderate northeast flow shifts southeast this weekend, persisting through next week. Rain chances stay low (generally 15% or less) through this weekend and next week. An approaching cold front late next week may once again deteriorate conditions and increase chances of rain and thunderstorms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 91 78 91 79 / 0 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 93 74 93 75 / 0 0 10 0 MCALLEN 95 77 95 78 / 10 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 93 74 93 76 / 10 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 81 87 82 / 10 0 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 77 89 78 / 0 0 10 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ451-454-455.

High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ451-454-455.

High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ451-454- 455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ150-155- 170-175.