textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1108 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

- Isolated minor coastal flooding remains possible through tonight while a low risk of rip currents continues through tomorrow afternoon.

- Low to medium (30-50%) chances of rain are expected Tuesday/Tuesday night followed by additional chances later this upcoming week/weekend.

- Above average temperatures gradually cool to slightly below average by the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1108 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

While semi-zonal flow persists over deep south Texas through this upcoming week and weekend, a series of mid/upper level shortwaves bring the potential for some elevated rain chances over the next 7 days. The first opportunity features a low to medium (20-50%) chance of rain along/east of I-69 E ahead of/along a cold front, working southward from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night, shifting winds from southeasterly to northerly. The latest deterministic GFS and RRFS model runs indicate isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Depending on how far south forcing reaches, there is a slight possibility of a stronger, thunderstorm or two over the northeastern portions of the CWA Tuesday afternoon, becoming more stratiform in nature Tuesday night. Yet, no severe thunderstorms are expected at this time.

Dry conditions resume Wednesday into the first half of Thursday as weak ridging passes over ahead of the next shortwave and attendant cold front moving over the Plains. As upper level divergence arrives over the region, rain chances gradually increase, possibly beginning Thursday evening, and expand to most of the region to as much as a low to medium (20-40%) chance on Friday, highest along/east of US-281/I-69 C. Region-wide low to medium chances of rain may continue into the weekend as yet another trough and cold front move southeastward from the Desert Southwest to the Southern Plains. There is a slight signal for more measurable rainfall during this timeframe due to the potential for well-above average moisture content in tandem with more favorable upper level support and front-associated lift. However, expect for the forecast to change over the coming days as model disagreement becomes more aligned.

Meanwhile, moderate high pressure aloft and relatively higher moisture content maintain above average temperatures (highs in the upper 80s/low 90s and lows in the 70s) and minor risks of heat- related illnesses (level 1/4) through the daytime on Tuesday. More seasonable temperatures are expected by Wednesday in wake of the first cold front, perhaps cooling to a bit below average later in the week as clouds build and northerly winds return.

Longer period swell (7 seconds) and 2-3 foot wave heights bring the possibility of isolated minor coastal flooding and narrowing of beaches through tonight, particularly during the hours surrounding high tide, which is at 12:24 AM Monday (late tonight); a Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect until 6 AM Monday morning.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1108 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Light and variable to calm winds continue at this time, expected to slightly increase to gentle easterly winds this afternoon. VFR conditons are likely to prevail through most of the 18Z TAF cycle though a brief period of MVFR ceilings are possible during the early to mid-morning hours tomorrow as winds become light and variable or calm while relative humidity maximizes.

MARINE

Issued at 1108 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions are likely tomorrow afternoon into Tuesday morning ahead of a cold front as well as late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning behind the front, which is expected to move through and bring a low to medium (30-60%) chance of showers and a few thunderstorms Tuesday evening/night, transitioning winds from southeasterly to northerly. Low to medium chances of rain and another round of SCEC and/or Small Craft Advisory headlines are possible again this weekend in association with another cold front or two. Otherwise, gentle to moderate southeasterly to northeasterly winds and slight to moderate (2-4 ft) seas prevail.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 89 74 90 76 / 10 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 90 70 92 73 / 10 0 0 0 MCALLEN 94 75 95 76 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 92 72 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 76 83 77 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 86 72 88 74 / 10 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.