textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 507 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

- Potential for nuisance flooding across the Lower Rio Grande Valley continues through Tuesday night.

- Near to below normal temperatures are expected through the week due to increased cloud cover rain chances.

- High Risk of Rip Currents continues through this evening along the Lower Texas beaches.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1215 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Unsettled weather will continue through mid week across Deep South Texas as an upper level low centered over the west continues to translate across the state, maintaining near daily low to medium precipitation chances and near normal temperatures. Rain chances will linger through Wednesday, but should be generally confined to around 20% or less inland, with better rain chances (30-40%) along the immediate coast and Gulf waters. Overall, total rainfall accumulations from tonight through Wednesday should be fairly lower, generally less than an inch. However, isolated pockets of higher amounts closer to 1-2 inches cannot be ruled out as moisture content remains high. The main threat through Wednesday is the potential for nuisance flooding, especially given the recent rainfall received across portions of the region.

Temperatures are expected to remain near or slightly below normal for mid November due to increased cloud cover and continued rain chances. Expect highs to range from the low 70s to low 80s each afternoon, with lows ranging from the upper 50s to upper 60s. Guidance indicates another cold front may approach Deep South Texas late this week, which may result in another round of showers and storms and continued seasonable temperatures.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 507 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

A bit of an uncertain forecast continues through tomorrow afternoon. At the time being, all TAF sites are sitting under OVC IFR ceilings (700-900 ft) with light to gentle NW to NNW, or calm, winds. These conditions are generally anticipated to prevail through the 00Z TAF cycle, perhaps lowering ceilings a bit further further overnight. In addition, some light showers or areas of mist are starting to wrap back around inland from coastal troughing. It is a bit up in the air how far west they'll progress as well as by much they could reduce visibility and ceilings. Have left PROB30s within most of the TAFs to account for the potential periods of LIFR or VLIFR resulting from light showers and/or mist as rain chances persist. Amednments are likely.

MARINE

Issued at 1215 PM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions continue along the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters through tonight. Conditions should become favorable by Tuesday and continue through mid week. However, an approaching cold front may bring adverse marine conditions late this week once again. Otherwise, precipitation chances continue through mid week, before becoming rain-free through the first half of the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 70 75 69 80 / 60 40 30 20 HARLINGEN 67 74 66 79 / 60 40 50 10 MCALLEN 67 73 68 80 / 70 30 20 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 62 72 64 79 / 70 40 30 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 72 74 71 76 / 70 50 40 30 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 68 75 67 78 / 70 50 40 30

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ451-454- 455.

GM...None.