textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1215 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

* A few isolated streamer showers could move over areas east of I-69C this afternoon into early evening.

* Otherwise, hot and rain-free conditions continue through the middle of next week, with Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk increasing to Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk for parts of the Rio Grande Valley this weekend.

* There is a Moderate Risk of life-threatning rip currents at area beaches through tomorrow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

A surface low remains stationed over northeastern Mexico/Central Texas, with a weak frontal boundary stalled over Central Texas. While our area is not expected to receive any significant rainfall as is being seen further north, this disturbance is drawing unusually moist air over the area from the southeast the afternoon. Due to high moisture content in the atmosphere today, a small streamer shower or two over the eastern portion of the CWA cannot be ruled out this afternoon into early evening, as isolated convection moves ashore from the Gulf waters. Rain chances, however, remain very low; no higher than 10%.

Ridging is expected to become more dominant over the Gulf starting tomorrow, which will dry up conditions through at least the middle of next week and bring hot and humid conditions to the area. Updated guidance is trending temperatures a little higher for this weekend into next week, with most of Deep South Texas being in the triple digits multiple days, with heat indices climbing between 105-110 by Sunday through the middle of next week. Moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk will be a concern for all of Deep South Texas today through the middle of next week, with some areas in the Rio Grande Valley seeing Major (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk as soon as tomorrow. Potential Heat Advisories are not out of the question (especially for the Coastal Counties) as soon as Sunday.

A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents continues into the weekend, with conditions expected to improve by the end of the weekend as high pressure becomes stronger over the Gulf.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

VFR conditions with partly cloudy skies and light to moderate southeasterly winds are expected at all airports.

MARINE

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Conditions are expected to be overall favorable, but there is a potential for brief Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions on the Bay intermittently throughout the week due to afternoon elevated wind speeds. Otherwise, winds should be southeasterly and light to moderate, with low wave heights between 2-4 feet.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 80 94 80 95 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 77 96 78 97 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 79 99 80 100 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 100 79 101 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 81 88 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 93 79 93 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.