textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 634 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

- Unseasonably hot high temperatures through the forecast.

- Dry weather, with intermittent isolated convection possible.

- Slightly adverse marine conditions Wednesday through Friday.

- Elevated risk of rip currents at the local beaches.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1014 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley will remain positioned on the western edge of mid-level high pressure that will largely be centered over Louisiana during the forecast period. This will produce dry weather for a majority of the next several days for the BRO CWFA. However, a slight chance of isolated convection exists for Friday, as an inverted mid-level trough sneaks under the 500 mb high and moves into extreme northeast Mexico. An additional shot of isolated convection cannot be ruled out for Sunday and Monday.

Temperature-wise, daily high temperatures will inch up a degree or two each successive day into well above normal levels. This will cause a Moderate to Major Heat Risk across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley to become Major to Extreme as the week progresses, eventually easing for the weekend and early in the new work week back into Moderate to Major territory.

Finally, with a gradually tightening pressure gradient along the Lower Texas Coast expected, a Moderate to High Risk of rip currents at the local beaches will likely occur daily.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Light southeast winds with a few low clouds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Light southeast winds will become breezy later this morning into the afternoon. Some gusts of 25 to 30 kts will be possible in the afternoon. Winds are expected to slowly decrease later this evening into tonight. VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

MARINE

Issued at 1014 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

An intensifying pressure gradient over the western Gulf of America will produce more adverse marine conditions along the Lower Texas Coast Wednesday through Friday. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution is likely, and Small Craft Advisory cannot be entirely ruled out. More moderate winds and seas are then anticipated for the weekend and into early next week with a more modest pressure gradient in place.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 97 81 97 82 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 101 78 100 79 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 104 81 103 82 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 105 79 104 80 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 90 82 90 82 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 97 80 96 80 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.