textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 1110 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
- A warming trend begins today.
- Rain chances return Tuesday into Wednesday.
- A cold front will move through Deep South Texas this weekend.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1110 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
A warming trend will begin today as high pressure builds across the region. Temperatures will climb into the 60s this afternoon with light northerly winds turning southeasterly overnight. Dry air will remain in place and while humidity levels will be in the teens, light winds will limit any fire weather concerns. Temperatures will continue to warm through the week with afternoon reaching the 70s on Monday and the 80s by late week.
A mid/upper level shortwave will move east over northern Mexico into the southern US midweek bringing rain chances back to Deep South Texas Tuesday into Wednesday as a weak boundary moves through and a coastal trough develops. Wednesday will be the best chance of seeing any rain across the region with a 20-50% chance (highest near the coast). As we head into the weekend another cold front will move through Deep South Texas late Saturday/early Sunday with temps closer to seasonal norms.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1110 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Light northerly winds will turn easterly this evening and southeasterly overnight/early Monday morning.
MARINE
Issued at 1110 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026
Favorable marine conditions will return this afternoon/evening on the waters off the lower Texas coast. A tightening pressure gradient Tuesday could warrant Small Craft Caution on the offshore waters. A boundary will move through midweek with a coastal trough developing which will bring rain chances Tuesday through Thursday. Otherwise, light winds and wave heights of 3 to 5 feet will prevail.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 64 45 71 59 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 64 39 73 54 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 64 41 75 57 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 64 35 75 54 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 60 53 68 62 / 0 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 62 45 70 57 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ451-454- 455.
GM...None.
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