textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1226 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

- Overall seasonable temperatures and pleasant weather expected.

- There are low (20%) rain chances tonight along the immediate coast and moderate (40-60%) rain chances for areas east of I-69C/281 tomorrow.

- Conditions should be dry for the late week into the early weekend, but low rain chances Monday as a mid-level trough approaches the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Seasonable temperatures are expected this week throughout Deep South Texas, with highs staying in the mid to upper 80s with a few places seeing lower 90s. With upper-level ridging in place over northeast Mexico through the early weekend, weather should be overall fair for the region.

However, there remains some weak coastal surface troughing along with some remnant Pacific moisture in the mid-levels. This, combined with onshore surface flow will support a very low chance of showers (20%) along the immediate coast tonight. Tomorrow will be the best chance for rain this week. Moderate (40-60%) rain chances spread inward tomorrow for areas east of I-69C before conditions dry out for the remainder of the work-week and the early weekend. Though convection should be scattered, some of the rainfall tomorrow could be locally heavy. Most areas that receive rain will receive no more than a half an inch, but a few isolated pockets of heavier rainfall could receive up to 2 inches.

Conditions should be mostly rain-free Thursday through Sunday. By the end of the weekend, a mid-level trough approaches the Central and Southern Plains from the west, which will erode high pressure over the region and destabilize the atmosphere. Low rain chances (20-30%) return Monday for all of Deep South Texas and continue into Tuesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

VFR conditions are expected at all airports through the TAF period with few to little cloud cover. Later this afternoon around 00z, more high clouds should move over the area. Winds are light to moderate and northeasterly, backing more northwesterly overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Overall adverse conditions are expected due to moderate seas (especially over the Outer Gulf Waters) this week. This, in tandem with elevated wind speeds will cause intermittent SCEC conditions both in the Bay and the Gulf Waters throughout the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 71 88 73 87 / 10 60 30 10 HARLINGEN 69 88 71 87 / 10 60 20 10 MCALLEN 69 91 72 90 / 0 30 30 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 66 91 71 90 / 0 20 10 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 84 75 83 / 20 70 50 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 70 86 71 85 / 20 60 40 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.