textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1014 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

- Low (15-20%) chances of light rain linger, mostly along/near the coast, into Wednesday afternoon.

- Cooler than average temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday steadily warm to near average over the weekend.

- Low risks of rip currents continue through Wednesday afternoon.

- Low to medium (20-40%) chances of rain return over the weekend with cooler temperatures possible again early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1014 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Nearshore troughing could lead to a low (15-20%) chance of light rain along/near the coast overnight tonight as well as again Wednesday afternoon while overcast skies persist across the region into Wednesday night as the back half of a mid/upper level trough slides eastward to the deep southern states. Meanwhile, ridging aloft sags southward across Texas ahead of a high pressure aloft moving over the Four Corners region, inducing a weak cold front passing southward through the CWA Wednesday night into Thursday morning, allowing for some drier air to filter into the region and leading to some breaks in the clouds on Thursday. Skies become mostly clear Thursday night as a secondary surge of high pressure pushes through the CWA on the backside of rapidly deepening trough over the eastern US. Temperatures moderate in the meantime, warming from the 70s on Wednesday and Thursday to mostly low 80s on Friday, perhaps warming a few more degrees into Sunday.

Mostly clear skies and dry conditions hold into Friday night as the the high pressure aloft over the southwestern US slips southeastward and over deep south Texas. Light northwesterly to northerly winds become southeasterly Friday night ahead of a a fairly strong, possibly negatively-tilted, mid/upper level shortwave trough arriving to southern Texas over the weekend. In comparison to yesterday, global weather model deterministic runs have nudged this initial, and subsequent, disturbance further northward, but could still manage to bring a low to medium (20-40%) chance of rain on Saturday, followed by low (15-30%) chances along/near the coast persisting into early next week. However, this portion of the forecast is subject to change as much uncertainty remains. Another cold front behind these troughs could cool high temperatures back to the 70s/low 80s by next Monday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1014 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

IFR ceilings have settled across all TAF sites this evening, ranging from 700 ft to 900 ft and are expected to hold through tonight as light northwesterly winds continue. Following, ceilings should begin to slowly rise to MVFR by tomorrow afternoon and continue lifting through the remainder of the 06Z TAF cycle.

MARINE

Issued at 1014 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Slight (1-2 ft) seas and gentle to moderate northerly winds briefly increase to moderate to fresh with Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions likely late Wednesday night into Thursday in association with the passage of a weak cold front, building seas to slight to moderate (2-4 ft) into Thursday night. Gentle to moderate winds transition to southeasterly Friday night and enhance to fresh to near-strong Saturday into Sunday, with SCEC headlines likely and/or Small Craft Advisory (SCA) possible as a pressure gradient tightens ahead of a series of inland low pressure systems. Moderate (4-7 ft) seas are possible Saturday into early next week as another cold front could pass through, leading to enhanced northeasterly winds and another potential round of SCEC/SCA conditions.

Low to medium (20-60%) chances of rain tonight gradually diminish to mostly dry conditions by Thursday afternoon or evening. Low to medium (20-60%) chances of rain return on Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 67 71 67 75 / 10 10 10 0 HARLINGEN 64 70 64 75 / 20 10 10 0 MCALLEN 65 73 65 77 / 20 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 62 72 62 77 / 20 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 69 72 70 74 / 30 20 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 65 70 65 74 / 20 10 10 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.