textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 144 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

- Major risk of heat-related illness continues through the weekend, with localized extreme risk across portions of the ranchlands and RGV. SPS and/or Heat Advisories are likely.

- Breezy southeasterly winds will persist through mid next week with speeds generally between 15-25 mph and peak gusts up to 35 mph.

- Borderline Fire Danger Statement (RFD) conditions are possible this afternoon and tomorrow.

- Rain chances increase slightly inland late Sunday as moisture gradually returns.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 144 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Ridging will maintain hot and dry conditions, with widespread Major (and pockets of Extreme in the RGV and Ranchlands) risk of heat- related illness continuing through the weekend. High temperatures in the triple digits will allow for heat indices to rise to 105-115, highest along I-69E and in the upper RGV. Special Weather Statements and/or Heat Advisories are possible each day through Monday.

This enhanced thermal gradient will allow gusty winds to 35 mph to continue each day. Dry conditions at the surface today (minimum RH 20-50%) paired with gusty winds raises concerns of fire weather conditions in the Rio Grande Plains and RGV, but coverage of favorable conditions for fire spread are not widespread enough to issue a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) at this time.

Upper level ridging slides westward over the Desert SW this weekend, allowing moisture to return. This will give an increase to rain chances late Sunday into Monday. Widespread rainfall coverage is not expected, but low chance PoPs are in place over the Rio Grande Plains and upper RGV. High temperatures in the triple digits (90s along coast) maintain Major risk of heat-related illness.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the 18Z TAF cycle. Gusty southeasterly winds will continue into the evening, lessening overnight. Winds pick up again tomorrow morning. There is a low chance of MVFR cloud cover at all sites tomorrow between 8-12Z.

MARINE

Issued at 144 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Generally moderate winds and slight seas are expected through the period. Gusty winds are possible with an enhanced pressure gradient, which will likely bring Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions each day over the Laguna Madre. There could be brief periods where winds reach low end Small Craft Advisory. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible late Sunday, otherwise, generally dry.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 80 96 81 97 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 77 99 78 101 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 81 103 81 104 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 103 78 104 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 81 89 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 95 79 97 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.