textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1248 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

* Hot summer conditions continue through the week. Moderate (level 2 of 4) risk of heat-related illness each day, mainly in the Valley becoming more widespread this weekend. Heat indices will climb to between 100 and 110 degrees each day.

* Daily rain and thunderstorm chances will increase from 10-25% today to 25-50% Friday/Saturday. While severe weather is not expected, any storms that develop are capable of heavy to torrential rainfall, gusty winds and small hail. * There is generally a low risk of rip currents at area beaches likely increasing to moderate this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1049 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

A seasonably hot forecast on tap for deep South Texas with daily chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms and breezy afternoon winds. An inverted trough at the surface will continue to push deep tropical moisture northward today into this weekend, gradually increasing rain chances. Convection over the Gulf slowly heading northward may bring isolated showers and thunderstorms late this morning. Depending on coverage (ie, lesser coverage and more surface heating during the morning), isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze are possible this afternoon.

Rain chances increase to low-moderate (20-50%) Friday and Saturday as PWATs climb to 2.0 to 2.3 inches. Most activity is anticipated in the afternoon along the sea breeze or along outflow boundaries. While widespread flooding is not anticipated, storms will be capable of producing efficient rainfall rates and localized heavy downpours, especially under slow-moving or training convection. Given relatively dry antecedent conditions and high flash flood guidance, any flooding concerns should remain localized, though isolated nuisance flooding in poor drainage areas cannot be ruled out.

Rain chances taper back to isolated coverage Sunday into early next week as ridging builds over central CONUS, shifting deeper moisture away from the region. Confidence decreases late in the period as guidance continues to differ on the evolution of an approaching frontal boundary.

Temperatures will remain seasonable through the forecast, with afternoon highs generally in the mid to upper 90s (upper 80s along the coast). Combined with persistent Gulf humidity, peak heat index values of 104 to 110 degrees will support a moderate risk of heat related illness. Along the coast, long-period swell and astronomical tides may increase risk of rip currents and further narrow beaches near high tide.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours, with breezy winds during the daylight hours and lighter winds at night. A TEMPO has been added for convection, with timing based on the HRRR model.

MARINE

Issued at 1049 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Moderate southerly to onshore flow with slight seas persists today. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible each day into the weekend, bringing briefly gusty winds, heavy rain, and elevated seas. This weekend, slight seas build to moderate into next week with increasing swells.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 92 79 93 81 / 30 30 30 10 HARLINGEN 93 75 94 78 / 20 20 40 10 MCALLEN 96 78 97 80 / 20 10 30 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 96 76 97 78 / 20 10 30 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 87 80 87 82 / 30 30 40 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 78 91 79 / 20 30 40 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.