textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1228 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Key Messages:

- Breezy and mainly dry conditions maintain an elevated fire weather risk further inland during the afternoon hours through Friday or Saturday.

- There is a medium risk of rip currents Monday morning through the afternoon hours and a possibility of High Risk of Rip Currents as the week progresses.

- A warming trend continues to result in above average temperatures into Saturday.

- Low (15-30%) chance of rain Tuesday, followed by a low to medium (30-50%) chance Saturday into Sunday in association with a cold front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1029 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Most of the 7 day forecast for Deep South Texas remains unchanged. A series of mid/upper level troughs passing over the Plains maintain a tightened pressure gradient, leading to breezy southeasterly winds each day, particularly during the afternoon hours along/east of US-281, where gusts up to 20-30 mph, or higher, are likely. Aside from a low (15-30%) chance of rain from brief and isolated showers across the Middle/Lower RGV, highest near/along the coast, on Tuesday, conditions should remain dry at least through Friday. Due to the combination of dry and gusty conditions coinciding with afternoon minimizing relative humidity values, there is an elevated fire weather risk most afternoons, especially along/west of US-281. As cured fuels remain abundant within the ongoing moderate, severe and exceptional (D2, D3 and D4) drought across our region, outdoor burning is not advised and burning bans remain in effect for Cameron, Willacy, Hidalgo, Starr, Brooks, Jim Hogg and Zapata counties. Friday and into the weekend, pressure heights continue to fall as a trough and surface low move over the Plains and into the Midwest, extending a cold front southwestward into the Southern Plains. Ahead of the front, southeasterly winds could gust up to 35 mph. The front may push through Saturday into Sunday, bringing as much as a low to medium (30-50%) chance of rain from showers and thunderstorms.

A warming trend results in above average temperatures, with widespread 90s inland by the middle of the week and upper 90s likely along/west of US-281 into possibly Saturday. Overnight lows in the 60s tonight and Monday night warm to the upper 60s and lower 70s by Tuesday night. As the front moves through this weekend, temperatures fall to near average, into the 80s, on Sunday.

A low risk of rip currents continues tonight, becoming a medium risk Monday morning through at least the afternoon hours. A High Risk of Rip Currents is possible this week as winds increase across the Lower Texas coastal waters.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Mostly clear skies and light southeast winds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. However, there is a low and medium probability of brief MVFR ceilings at HRL and MFE, especially around sunrise. Light southeast winds overnight will increase and become breezy later this morning into the afternoon. Some gusts around 25 knots will be possible by the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1029 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Moderate to fresh southeasterly to southerly winds and moderate (3-4 ft) seas continue into the middle parts of this week. Small Craft Exercise Conditions (SCEC) headlines are possible each afternoon, especially by the middle to later parts of the week as a pressure gradient tightens, leading to breezier conditions and moderate (4-5 ft) seas. There is a low (15-30%) chance of rain from passing isolated showers on Tuesday as well as a low to medium (30-50%) chance of rain from showers and thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday, when a cold front passes through. Winds shift to northeasterly on Sunday behind the front, remaining moderate.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 85 69 86 71 / 0 0 20 0 HARLINGEN 89 66 90 67 / 0 0 20 0 MCALLEN 92 70 93 72 / 0 0 20 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 92 67 94 69 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 72 79 72 / 0 10 30 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 84 67 85 69 / 0 0 20 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.