textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1221 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Key Messages:

* Light showers continue to diminish overnight tonight.

* Breezy to windy and dry conditions continue for the majority of the forecast, with gusts up to 20-30+ mph likely each afternoon and early evening.

* A medium risk of rip currents continues through Monday afternoon and is likely to prevail into the remainder of the forecast due to the breezy conditions.

* A gradual warming trend increases temperatures to around 5 degrees above average, or warmer, by the later parts of the week.

* The next chance of unsettled weather, associated with a mid/upper level trough and cold front, arrives this upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1033 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Over the course of this evening, strong to severe convection firing off the Sierra Madre weakened significantly before reaching Deep South Texas, though some showers managed to produce light rain mostly across portions of the Northern Ranchlands as well as the Middle and Lower RGV. Showers are expected to continue diminishing overnight, with chances of rain falling below 10% by Monday morning and the mid-level shortwave responsible for this activity pulls out of Deep South Texas by Monday afternoon. Southwesterly middle/upper level flow resumes on Tuesday as the next mid/upper level trough tracks from the West Coast to the Plains and Upper Midwest by the middle of the week, moving north of Deep South Texas possibly on Thursday. A persistent area of low pressure, stretching from the Great Lakes to the Plains, interacts with prevailing high pressure over the Gulf, thus tightening a pressure gradient and resulting in breezy to windy conditions across Deep South Texas; southeasterly winds are likely to gust to 20-30+ mph each afternoon, with gusts up to 20-25 mph overnight still possible. Mid/upper level high pressure also maintains dry (<10% PoPs) conditions into possibly the beginning of this upcoming weekend. Warm air advection via southeasterly winds is likely to gradually warm high temperatures from near/slightly above average (in the upper 80s/low 90s) to around 5 degrees, or warmer, above average by the later parts of the week as low/mid 90s become widespread, warmest further west. Overnight lows continue in the low 70s.

The next focus becomes unsettled weather associated with a mid/upper level trough and attendant surface low and cold front making their way into Texas over the upcoming weekend. At this time, the front is anticipated to push into Deep South Texas Saturday into Sunday, bringing some unsettled weather, with a low to medium (30-40%) chance of rain. This could lower temperatures to near normal following. Yet, this still remains 6-7 days out, so the timing of the front and the resulting chance of rain and unsettled weather are expected to change.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

A mixture of VFR to MVFR conditions are expected to persist through the period at all TAF sites for the period. Winds are expected be out of the southeast for the period, with the winds gusting around mid-morning to around 25 knots. Winds should weaken around the evening hours.

MARINE

Issued at 1033 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

A low (15-20%) chance of rain tonight drops to 10% or less by mid- Monday morning as an upper level disturbance exits the Lower Coastal Waters. A tightened pressure gradient prevails through most of the forecast, maintaining moderate to fresh southeasterly winds and moderate seas. Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines are likely, especially for the Laguna Madre in the afternoon and evenings as a locally enhanced gradient enhances southeasterly winds from fresh to near strong at times. The next chance of rain arrives this upcoming weekend ahead of and along a potential cold front moving through, possibly Saturday into Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 85 73 86 72 / 10 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 88 70 89 69 / 10 0 0 0 MCALLEN 91 75 92 74 / 10 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 90 72 92 72 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 73 79 73 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 85 71 84 71 / 10 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.