textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1033 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Key Messages

- Hot and dry week ahead.

- Possible weekend rain.

- Wind and cured fuels raises wildfire potential.

- Adverse marine conditions.

- Continuous rip current threat.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 920 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Dry weather with well above normal daytime highs and overnight lows will dominate through a majority of the period. This will be due to 500 mb high pressure that will gradually shift from west to east across Mexico and the Gulf of America, but will be in control throughout the shift over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.

However, a glimmer of hope in a change in the weather pattern exists for the coming weekend. Closed 500 mb low pressure diving south into the Baja Peninsula, and eventually east across the Lone Star State, may bring isolated to scattered convection from Saturday night through Sunday across the BRO CWFA.

Prior to the precipitation potential, a breezy to windy onshore flow will occur. Given the anticipated strength of the winds, and abundant cure fuels from prolonged drought conditions and a couple of episodes of freezing temperatures earlier this year, the need for a Rangeland Fire Danger Statement (or several) cannot be entirely ruled out.

Finally, building seas along the Lower Texas Coast will likely create a Moderate Risk to High Risk of rip currents at the local beaches daily.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1033 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

MVFR to VFR will continue to be anticipated at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours.

MARINE

Issued at 920 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

A steadily enhanced pressure gradient over the western Gulf of America will produce unsettled marine conditions throughout the forecast period. Breezy to strong winds are anticipated, with moderate to rough seas likely. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution and/or Small Craft Advisory are likely to be needed daily, especially for the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf of America waters, beginning on Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 66 85 67 85 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 62 88 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 66 91 67 92 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 64 92 63 94 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 69 77 69 78 / 0 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 64 83 65 84 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.