textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1229 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Key Messages:

* A Moderate risk of rip currents will continue this weekend due to long period swell.

* Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk is expected Sunday across most of Deep South Texas.

* There is a Moderate (level 1 of 5) Risk of Severe Weather late Sunday into early Monday with the next frontal passage. The main severe weather hazards will be damaging winds and large hail Sunday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Busy morning across Deep South Texas with the conditional severe threat finally becoming realized across much of the Rio Grande Valley. Supercell thunderstorms, including a long-lasting cell late this morning produced multiple rounds of severe and sub- severe hail in Zapata, Starr, Hidalgo, and Cameron counties, and likely multiple microbursts in both Hidalgo and Cameron counties. Radar has mostly cleared, so have cleared POPs through the afternoon as well, since the atmosphere was pretty worked over. A little bit of a wake low has kicked some winds up behind the action across Cameron County. Expect that to drop off into the mid-late afternoon and turn back southeasterly.

The next frontal boundary dives south late Sunday night into Monday morning with a quick shot of showers and strong to severe thunderstorms. SPC has placed all of Deep South Texas into a Marginal (level 1 of 5) Risk of Severe Weather for this activity, with the best chance of severe weather occurring north of the ranchlands and further upstream. The main threats Sunday night into early Monday morning would once again be large hail and damaging winds. Will have to monitor anything developing north of the CWA.

Morning temperatures behind the front dip back towards normal and slightly below normal through the remainder of the week, with highs dropping back into the mid to upper 80s Monday and Tuesday, before gradually warming through the remainder of the week. Generally dry weather is expected late Monday afternoon through Friday.

Long period swell continues to drive a moderate risk of life- threatening rip currents along the lower Texas coast through the weekend and into early next week. There remains a Minor (level 1 of 4) to Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk across Deep South Texas through this weekend, with a Minor Heat Risk through most of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

A little bit of a wake low behind the convection this morning has kicked up breezy easterly winds early this afternoon with VFR conditions. Expected winds to turn southeasterly and diminish through the remainder of the afternoon, with MVFR ceilings returning this evening through tonight.

MARINE

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Severe weather has pushed further offshore with Small Craft Caution conditions continuing into mid-late afternoon due to elevated winds and seas. Conditions continue to improve through Sunday and into Sunday night before the next frontal boundary arrives. Expect northerly winds and strong to severe thunderstorms along the front into early Monday. Easterly winds return Tuesday with improving marine conditions through the remainder of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 77 91 77 88 / 10 10 30 10 HARLINGEN 74 92 75 87 / 10 20 30 20 MCALLEN 76 93 76 89 / 0 20 30 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 75 94 74 89 / 0 20 40 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 84 78 83 / 10 0 30 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 89 77 86 / 10 10 30 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.