textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 525 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

- Daily low to moderate (20 to 40%) sea breeze chances continue through the weekend into early next week.

- Moderate (level 2 of 4) to Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk continues through the middle of next week as high pressure remains in place over Texas.

- A cool front is possible next week as a shortwave trough moves over the Southern Plains. This will bring a cooler, wetter pattern to the region more typical of the fall.

- There is a moderate risk of rip currents at area beaches.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Unseasonably warm and humid conditions continue for Deep South Texas, with high pressure still in place over Central-Southeast Texas, supporting an easterly flow to our region on the underside of the center of the high. This will continue to support low to moderate (20 to 40%) daily chances for sea breeze showers and thunderstorms, mainly for areas east of I-69C. However, low chances do spread further inland mainly this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. The best chances for precipitation each day will be mid-afternoon to early evening in association with peak daytime heating.

Temperatures remain above seasonal normals, reaching the upper 90s and lower 100s each day, with lows getting down into the mid to upper 70s. While no Special Weather Statements or Heat Advisories are expected to be issued through the weekend, a Moderate (level 2 of 4) to Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk remains in place over the next week.

Longer range guidance hints at a potential pattern change late next week as the high pressure that has been dominating the Southern Plains over the past several weeks finally breaks down and a Pacific trough moves through from the west. This trough may bring a much-welcome weak cold front to the region by Thursday of next week, and also usher in the more seasonable, rainier pattern that is more typical to Deep South Texas this time of year. Low to moderate rain chances (beyond sea breeze convection) will begin to become more widespread starting Wednesday as the shortwave approaches the area and the atmosphere becomes more unsettled.

A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents remains at area beaches for this afternoon into tomorrow.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 525 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Through 00z Saturday.....VFR conditions, by and large, are expected to prevail through the 00z TAF cycle. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze is possible again Friday afternoon/evening. Have Prob30 groups to reflect the potential for sea breeze showers and thunderstorms on Friday for all of the TAF sites. Any showers or storms that move over a terminal will have the capabilities of briefly reducing flight categories down to MVFR-IFR range. Otherwise, expect for VFR conditions to persist.

East-northeast winds 10-15 kts gusting as high as 20 kts or so this evening will weaken later on with things trending towards light and variable to calm tonight. Winds will pick up once again out of the east-northeast 10-15 kts with gusts as high 20-25 kts on Friday.

MARINE

Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Favorable conditions are expected over the next several days with light to moderate northeasterly winds and low to moderate (2-4 feet) wave heights. SCEC and/or Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible by the middle of next week as a weak cold front is expected to approach the area.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 80 95 80 96 / 30 50 10 30 HARLINGEN 78 98 75 99 / 30 30 10 20 MCALLEN 79 98 78 99 / 20 40 10 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 98 76 101 / 20 30 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 89 82 89 / 40 30 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 94 78 94 / 30 30 10 20

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.