textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1018 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

- Light patchy fog will be possible again late tonight into Friday morning.

- Dry conditions and above normal temperatures expected through next week.

- A weak cold front will move through the region Saturday evening bringing drier air this weekend and into next week. This could lead to increased fire weather concerns.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1018 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Ridging aloft and surface high pressure over the Gulf will continue to lead to warm and dry conditions across Deep South Texas through Friday.

Tonight, as winds decrease, we could see some light patchy fog across the CWA once again but should dissipate by mid-morning. Saturday, a shortwave will move over northern Mexico bringing a weak cold front through Deep South Texas Saturday night. This front could bring a low chance (10-30%) of rain along the coast and across Kenedy county during the day on Saturday. In wake of the front, daytime highs will still remain well above normal but overnight temperatures will fall into the 50s Saturday, Sunday and Monday nights.

The front will also bring in a drier airmass which could raise fire weather concerns. Forecast guidance continues to keep wind speeds below and fire weather criteria this weekend which could help mitigate any concerns. A better chance for any wildfire growth will be on Tuesday, mainly in the lower Valley, as humidity levels fall and winds increase due to a tightening pressure gradient ahead of a frontal boundary draped across central Texas. Will continue to monitor the need for fire weather headlines this weekend and on Tuesday. Regardless, fuels are cured so anything that catches on fire will catch quickly. Outdoor burning is strongly discouraged.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1018 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through this evening. After 3 AM could see some patchy fog development with MVFR conditions and potentially IFR conditions, especially near daybreak. VFR conditions will return by midmorning with southeasterly winds increasing and gusting 25 to 30 kts in the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1018 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

A weak front will approach and pass through the waters off the lower Texas coast Saturday night with Small Craft Caution and possible Small Craft Advisory conditions Friday night into Saturday and again on Sunday. Favorable conditions will return Sunday night. The aforementioned front will also bring the chance for some showers and thunderstorms Saturday, mainly across the northern waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 65 82 67 83 / 0 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 61 84 64 85 / 0 0 10 10 MCALLEN 66 88 69 91 / 0 0 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 63 88 66 91 / 0 0 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 66 74 67 75 / 0 0 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 62 80 64 81 / 0 0 10 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.