textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1118 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

- There is a potential for another Fire Danger Statement tomorrow.

- May-like high temperatures are expected to persist through the rest of this week, before a cold front moves through on Saturday. - A cold front is expected to move through Deep South Texas on Saturday, which could result in multiple different hazards affecting the waters, coast, and inland. Keeping a particular eye out for fire weather conditions and rip currents.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1118 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Above normal temperatures closer to what we would normally see around May and rain-free conditions are expected to persist through the majority of the forecast period due to the subtropical ridge over the region. The ridge should break down closer to the weekend, and we could get a cold front to move through Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley sometime Saturday into Sunday. While this front is still not expected to bring any sort of rainfall with it, it should deliver a bit of a break from the heat. The high temperatures behind this cold front are forecasted to be in the mid 70s for Sunday and Monday. There is still some uncertainly in this forecast so the situation will still need to be monitored.

A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for Starr, Jim Hogg, Brooks, and Hidalgo counties. With southeasterly winds around the upper teens and gusts up to 26 mph. The minimum relative humidity values for those areas are expected to be in the range of upper 20s to lower 30 percentiles. With the minimum relative humidity in a similar range and 20-foot winds close to being in the upper teens again tomorrow, it is possible that another Fire Danger Statement could be issued for tomorrow.

Lastly, while conditions along the coast are generally pleasant today. The risk of rip current is expected to become more elevated as the waves and swells increase starting tonight and persisting through the work and through the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1118 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the majority of the TAF cycle at all TAF sites. Southeasterly winds are expected to remain gusty to up to 25 to 30 knots for the rest of the afternoon and through the early evening. After the winds weaken, there is a low possibility of some fog development that might reduce visibilities slightly and a low cloud deck might move over the area that could reduce conditions to MVFR during the overnight hours. Winds are expected to become gusty again around late tomorrow morning as southeasterly winds gusts to around 25 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 1118 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern Gulf and a weak trough of low pressure over the Sierra Madre through Western Texas will foster the southeasterly flow over the Lower Texas Coast. Stronger winds are possible today and tomorrow afternoon which could result in periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution. However, this does not rule out the possibility of a low-end Small Craft Advisory being needed. A cold front is expected to move through the Lower Texas Coast this Saturday into Sunday that could bring hazardous conditions. This event is more likely to result in Small Craft Advisories being needed for Saturday and Sunday, before and after the cold front.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 528 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

It's a really tight call as to whether to pull the trigger on a Fire Danger Statement for Brooks, Hidalgo, Starr, and Jim Hogg. Blended forecast winds fall just shy of the 15-20 mph and gusty requirements with humidity forecast to range from the upper 20s to lower 30s. However, trusted deterministic guidance, along with healthy ~25 knot winds off the deck in the lower Valley with guidance suggesting at least 20 knots to continue up to 850 mb through 3 PM - as well as a favorable atmosphere for "dry" mixing of said winds - make the case for a decent period of 15-20+ mph winds in these areas. Zapata typically falls short, and would therefore keep them out of the statement at this point.

Given the steadily worsening drought - now at Extreme (level 3 of 4) in nearly all of these areas - the favorable heat (90+ degrees), and some small fire starts on Monday in southern Hidalgo, will go ahead and issue a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) for these areas. Humidity should be just high enough for the coastal counties...but winds will also be 3-5 knots higher as well. Fuels are (still) plenty cured in all areas, so this is not an issue.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 65 84 68 87 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 61 86 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 65 91 66 95 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 61 91 64 95 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 67 76 68 78 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 63 83 65 85 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.