textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 615 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Key Messages:

* Light rain continues today, with rain chances decreasing by Monday afternoon.

* Low (10-20%) daily rain chances will be likely Tuesday night through Wednesday.

* An upper level disturbance will bring a 30-50% chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday.

* A High Risk of Rip Currents will continue through Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Light rain will likely continue tonight with rain chances diminishing through the day Monday. Predominately zonal upper- level flow across South Texas looks to setup Monday afternoon and remain in place through mid-week. A few weak mid- level shortwaves and low level moisture advection will likely support limited rain chances around 10-20% through Wednesday. A stronger upper-level shortwave looks to move through the area Thursday into Friday. Increased forcing with this pattern will likely destabilize the atmosphere, increasing the chance for showers and thunderstorms to around 30-50%.

Temperatures are forecast to gradually warm through the week as cloud cover decreases Monday afternoon and winds shift easterly to southeasterly Tuesday. High temperatures Monday will likely range from the upper 60s to mid 70s, with highs increasing to the low to mid 80s by Wednesday. Likewise, low temperatures will likely range from the mid to upper 50s tonight, increasing to the mid to upper 60s by Wednesday night.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

MVFR cigs and light showers continue this morning at BRO and HRL. Brief MVFR is possible at MFE this morning under a stray shower. Ceilings begin to lift and return to VFR this afternoon for all sites as rain chances decrease with showers moving offshore. Northerly winds become gusty around 20kts this afternoon, shifting northeasterly and diminishing overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 1035 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

UPDATE 0621 AM CDT...The Small Craft Advisory for the 20-60nm Gulf waters has been extended through 7 PM CDT Monday, April 6. (69-HK)

PREV DISCUSSION...A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 1 PM Monday for the Gulf waters and Laguna Madre. Strong northerly winds will likely begin to decrease in intensity late Monday morning, allowing seas to gradually improve through the afternoon. The Small Craft Advisory may need to be extended or replaced with Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines depending on how quickly seas improve.

Winds will likely shift to the east to southeast Monday night into Tuesday, with generally favorable winds and seas likely to persist through the remainder of the forecast. Rain chances between 20-40% will likely persist through much of the week over the Gulf waters.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 72 57 78 66 / 30 10 10 30 HARLINGEN 73 54 79 62 / 20 0 10 20 MCALLEN 75 58 81 66 / 20 0 10 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 74 53 81 63 / 10 0 10 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 70 66 75 70 / 40 10 20 30 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 59 78 66 / 30 10 10 30

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ130- 132-135-150-155.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ170-175.