textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1221 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

* Low to moderate rain chances continue through Saturday.

* Heat Risk will become more of a concern starting Sunday when skies clear and conditions begin to dry up.

* There is a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents at area beaches tomorrow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

A weak upper level disturbance remains in place over the area, supporting continued unsettled conditions for the next few days. This, along with a rich atmospheric moisture profile, will be favorable for continued rain chances through Saturday. Much of this activity will be along the sea breeze over the next few days, though Sierra Madre convection is also expected Thursday and Friday evenings as this weak disturbance moves over the area.

Conditions should remain dry this evening for most of Deep South Texas, except portions of the far Western Ranchlands where lingering Sierra Madre convection could reach the Rio Grande after dark. Tomorrow, precipitation chances are low to moderate (30-50%) and become more widespread as the upper level low moves across the region with an accompanying surface trough just to our south. Previously, all of Deep South Texas was under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Friday. However, it was always low confidence due to low QPF amounts, and confidence has decreased with the latest guidance. Therefore, Deep South Texas has been removed from WPC's Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall for tomorrow.

Precipitation chances increase to around 40-60% tomorrow night for areas west of I-69C, with the best chances in the Western Ranchlands as more Sierra Madre convection is expected to make its way into the CWA overnight. By Saturday, chances will be low again (around 20%) and remain confined to the sea breeze front, mostly around the I-69E corridor and eastward.

High pressure is then expected to take hold over the South Central Plains as an omega block pattern sets up for about a week. Though the air is still expected to be humid due to southeasterly surface flow, conditions should dry out and precipitation chances will remain very low from Sunday into next week. Heat Risk will also become more of a concern Sunday into early next week, as skies clear and conditions gradually warm. We are still expecting seasonal level temperatures, but there will be a Moderate (level 2 of 4 ) Heat Risk due to humid conditions.

A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents can be expected at area beaches tomorrow.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

VFR conditions expected at all airports with few clouds and a small chance of showers. CLoud coverage should increase and winds should turn more southeasterly through the TAF period, but conditions are expected to remain VFR.

MARINE

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Favorable conditions are expected through Saturday, but increasing wind speeds may cause SCEC conditions on Sunday. Conditions should return to favorable for Monday. There is a low chance of showers offshore between now and Saturday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 78 90 79 89 / 10 20 30 30 HARLINGEN 75 90 75 89 / 0 40 30 40 MCALLEN 77 91 77 90 / 10 50 50 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 75 90 74 92 / 20 40 60 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 86 81 86 / 10 10 30 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 88 78 88 / 10 20 20 30

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.