textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 622 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Key Messages:

* Life-threatening beach, surf, and marine conditions are expected along the lower TX coast for the rest of the weekend.

* Much cooler temperatures prevail into Monday morning with a quick warmup Tuesday into Wednesday, elevating heat risk.

* Another frontal boundary expected to approach the region by the end of the work week and could bring another round of showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Cooler weather should prevail today with overcast skies and high temperatures in the mid 70s. However, these cooler temperatures are not expected to last very long as a warm front moves over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley along with the return of southeasterly winds during the early part of the work week. Thus the temperatures will continue to climb through much of the work week. By the middle of the work week, most of the region will be in a moderate (level 2 of 4) heat risk, while a few locations could be in a major (level 3 of 4) heat risk.

The end of the work week could see a frontal boundary approach the area and stall to the north of the area. This set up could allow for a favorable environment for showers and thunderstorms to develop as moisture pools along the frontal boundary. However, the models do keep the rain chances low (around 30%), so there is a lot of uncertainty with how this event will unfold. As such make sure to comeback around for further updates.

Lastly, coastal hazards are expected to remain impactful through the rest of the week, as High Risk of Rip Currents and High Surf Advisory remain in effect into Sunday. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect through the early part of this afternoon, but could be needed again for tonight as high tide comes around again.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

MVFR to VFR conditions are expected this evening, improving to VFR on Sunday, with diminishing northerly winds turning ESE by late Sunday afternoon or just beyond this TAF period.

MARINE

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through the early hours of Sunday due to elevated winds and seas. Even after the Small Craft Advisory does expire, the waters of the Laguna Madre and the Gulf are still expected to remain adverse through the rest of the weekend. Thus Small Craft Exercise Caution will likely be needed for Sunday. More favorable conditions should return by Monday with light to moderate southeasterly winds and moderate seas. However, a return of adverse and possibly hazardous conditions could occur around Thursday as another frontal boundary approaches the Lower Texas Coast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 64 81 68 85 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 60 83 64 87 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 63 85 67 89 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 58 84 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 70 77 72 80 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 66 81 68 84 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ451-454-455.

High Surf Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175.