textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1023 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Key Messages:

- Unseasonably warm, dry, and breezy to windy conditions this week improve behind a cold front with deep moisture this weekend.

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected Easter weekend and early next week, with early total rainfall estimates of 1 to 2 inches by Tuesday morning.

- Adverse marine conditions across the Laguna Madre and Gulf Waters with breezy to windy conditions and this weekend's cold front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1023 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Through Saturday...Warm, dry, and breezy-windy conditions continue into this weekend. High temperatures will run 5-10 degF above average, with 80s along the coast and 90s inland. Thursday is forecast to be the hottest day, with temperatures nearing the triple digits in the westernmost portions of the CWA. A LLJ extending from Deep South Texas ahead of a surface low in the Central Plains will maintain breezy to windy southeasterly winds each day.

The persistent onshore flow supports continued moisture advection from the Gulf. While rain chances remain very low (less than 10%), this will steadily moisten the airmass with precipitable water (PWAT) values exceeding the 90th percentile of climatology (~1.5") and approaching daily maximum values (~2").

Saturday night through next Wednesday...A sfc low currently over the PNW will dig into central CONUS late this week, pushing a cold front towards deep South Texas. This boundary will act as the primary forcing mechanism for showers and thunderstorms as it interacts with the moist airmass in place. Behind the front, high temperatures Monday onwards will hang in the 70s.

Rain chances increase Saturday evening (30-50%) across the Ranchlands and Upper RGV as the front approaches, expanding across the entirety of the CWA overnight (70-90%). The front, moving northwest to southeast, should reach the Ranchlands late Saturday afternoon to evening and progress through the RGV overnight into early Sunday. Elevated rain chances persist through Sunday (80-90% area wide), with chances gradually decreasing Monday onwards.

Total rainfall amounts from Saturday evening to Tuesday morning generally expected to range from 1 to 2 inches, with most rain falling Saturday night into Sunday. Training storms and locally heavy downpours can result in isolated totals exceeding 2 inches, leading to flooding particularly in low-lying and poor drainage areas. The region has been plagued by persistent drought; dry soils struggle to absorb large amounts of rainfall in short amounts of time. The Weather Prediction Center has placed all of Deep South Texas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall Saturday night. Along the front, thunderstorms, some strong, may produce lightning, small hail, and heavy rainfall. The severe threat is limited.

Rain chances Monday and Tuesday will depend how quickly the front moves offshore. A slow or stalling boundary could prolong stratiform precip into Monday. In contrast, high pressure building over central TX would push the boundary offshore quicker, ending rain chances sooner.

The forecast will continue to be refined, especially as future hi-res guidance captures this weekend. Continue to monitor the forecast and check back for updates. Be sure you have a reliable way to monitor weather and receive weather alerts this weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

VFR conditions for much of the daytime hours, but overnight, expect MVFR ceilings to develop after sunset. Clouds begin to lift and thin out Thursday morning. Gusty southeasterly winds continue through the TAF cycle, lessening overnight with gusts to around 20-25 kts, picking up again mid-morning up to 30 kts.

MARINE

Issued at 1023 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

A moderate to fresh breeze will maintain slight to moderate seas into this weekend. An enhanced pressure gradient may result in Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions on the Laguna Madre and Nearshore Gulf Waters each afternoon, with brief Small Craft Advisory conditions possible. This weekend, a cold front will likely bring Small Craft Advisory conditions with rough seas Sunday into Monday. There is an increased chance of rain Saturday evening through Monday, with thunderstorms possible Saturday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 88 72 88 73 / 10 0 0 10 HARLINGEN 91 70 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 94 74 94 75 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 96 71 98 73 / 0 0 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 73 80 73 / 10 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 87 71 87 70 / 10 0 0 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.