textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1212 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

* Overall warm and dry conditions expected into next week.

* There will be low to moderate (20 to 50%) chances of isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1212 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

An Omega blocking pattern is expected to set up over the CONUS, potentially through mid-June. This type of pattern typically brings subsidence and high pressure to the Central and Southern Plains, including Deep South Texas, as the region is expected to remain sandwiched between two low pressure systems to the east and west. This pattern will help keep conditions warm and relatively rain free over the next week. High temperatures are generally expected to be in the upper 80s and low-to-mid 90s throughout the week, with mostly Minor (level 1 of 4) to Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk expected.

Some minor shortwave activity coming off the trough to the west next week could create enough instability for a few isolated to scattered shower/thunderstorms, particularly on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, enhanced by the diurnal heating cycle and the sea breeze. Chances remain low to moderate (around 20 to 50%) throughout Deep South Texas.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Intermittent VFR and MVFR conditions can be expected at all airports for the next few hours as scattered to broken clouds move across the region. Winds are expected to turn more southeasterly later in the day. VFR conditions should be in place by late afternoon and will stay VFR until overnight when ceilings could lower to MVFR between 05-07z. Conditions should return to VFR by 15-16z.

MARINE

Issued at 1212 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Favorable conditions are expected throughout the week, with light to moderate easterly to southeasterly winds and low to moderate seas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 77 92 78 94 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 73 92 74 95 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 76 95 77 97 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 75 95 76 97 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 85 81 86 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 89 77 91 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.

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