textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 512 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Key Messages

- Breezy to windy southeasterly winds prevail into Saturday, with gusts up to 35 mph, or higher, likely along/east of US-281 from mid-morning into the late afternoon hours.

- A Fire Danger Statement is in effect from 12 PM to 6 PM Thursday for Brooks, Jim Hogg and Starr Counties. See the FIRE WEATHER section below for more details.

- Elevated fire weather conditions continue each afternoon today through Saturday, with the greatest threat west of US-281.

- A Medium risk of rip currents continues through Thursday afternoon and is likely to continue into this weekend as breezy and gusty winds persist.

- Chances of rain increase Saturday afternoon through Sunday to as much as a medium to likely (40-80%) chance, with the best chances further north and west.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1011 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Surface low pressure systems associated with a mid/upper level trough moving over the Northern and Central Plains tonight, followed by another one Friday into Friday night, continue to result in breezy to windy conditions, especially along/east of US-281, where gusts up to 35 mph, or higher, are possible from mid-morning into the late afternoon hours through Saturday afternoon. Breezy conditions continue overnight through Friday night, with gusts up to 25-30 mph possible. Fire weather concerns persist across our County Warning Area (CWA) into Saturday, with the most prime fire weather conditions during the afternoon when minimizing relative humidity values coincide with gusty winds. See the FIRE WEATHER section below for more details. Although the probability of rain remains less than 10%, there is an outside chance that potential convection developing over the Sierra Madre Thursday evening could bring some brief rain showers to the Rio Grande Plains and the Upper RGV into the early nighttime hours Thursday night, as evident on the 00Z short term high resolution models from this evening. Following, slight forcing aloft could bring a low (15-20%) chance of brief isolated showers over the Northern Ranchlands on Friday as well, though not expecting more than a trace at this time. Additionally, a Medium risk of rip currents continues through Thursday afternoon and is likely to persist into this weekend due to breezy and gusty winds.

Recent global deterministic model runs continue to portray a cut-off mid/upper level low developing over the West Coast on Friday, pinching off from a ridge arriving over the Pacific Northwest. As the low digs southward to near the Baja Peninsula over the weekend, ridging aloft translates over the Plains, where a surface high pressure builds in wake of a departing trough, pushing the attendant cold front southward into southern Texas, possibly by Sunday. Enhanced lift and moisture pooling ahead of the front are currently anticipated to bring an increased chance of rain Saturday afternoon through Sunday, to as much as a low to medium (40-80%) chance, highest across northern and western portions of the CWA. Yet, much uncertainty remains as guidance is inconsistent with the timing and southward extent of the front, which plays an impact on the timing and chances of rain.

The next focus may turn to the unsettled weather associated with the passage of the cut-off low as it moves eastward from northern Mexico into Texas into the middle of next week. Otherwise, breezy conditions resume, with temperatures remaining well above average, rising to the upper 80s east of I-69 E and low/mid 90s, perhaps even higher, further west while overnight lows fall to the 60s and 70s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 512 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

A mixture of VFR and MVFR conditions are currently ongoing due to low-level clouds. As the morning progress, the clouds are expected to raise, which should allow for VFR conditions to take over. Southeasterly winds will continue, while still being gusty at more of the TAF sites with some gusts going up to 30 knots. A return of MVFR ceiling during the overnight hours is likely to occur.

MARINE

Issued at 1011 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Moderate to fresh southeasterly winds and moderate (4-5 feet) seas continue through Friday, with Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions likely each afternoon and evening across the Laguna Madre and Nearshore (0-20 NM) Gulf Waters due to a tightened pressure gradient. There is a low (15-20%) chance of light rain on Friday and a low to medium (30-60%) chance of rain Saturday through Sunday. Moderate southeasterly winds and moderate seas continue over the weekend and into next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1011 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

A Fire Danger Statement (RFD) is in effect for Brooks, Jim Hogg and Starr Counties from 12 PM to 6 PM Thursday, during which relative humidity values are expected to minimize as low as 30 to 35 percent along with southeasterly 20 foot winds of 15 to 20 mph, gusting to as high as 25 to 30 mph. It is highly urged to refrain from outdoor burning across these areas and the rest of Deep South Texas as cured fuels remain susceptible to catching and spreading wildfires due to the ongoing moderate to exceptional drought across the region. An RFD is also possible on Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 85 71 87 72 / 0 10 10 0 HARLINGEN 88 68 90 69 / 0 10 10 0 MCALLEN 91 73 94 74 / 0 10 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 94 70 95 71 / 0 10 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 71 79 71 / 0 10 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 84 69 85 69 / 0 10 10 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.