textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1206 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

- Lingering showers are expected to move offshore later this afternoon, with drier conditions expected this evening through Friday night.

- A stalled frontal boundary to the north is expected to bring low to moderate (30 to 50%) rain chances to Deep South Texas Saturday.

- A second, stronger front will make it through Deep South Texas Monday, which will bring low rain chances (20 to 30%) to areas near the coast along with a temperature decrease.

- Temperatures will be begin warming tomorrow and reach the mid to upper 80s be the end of the weekend before the next cold front lowers temperatures back into the 70s for Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1206 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Some ongoing convection is expected to move off shore this afternoon through the Lower Rio Grande Valley as the atmosphere remains mildly disturbed and lingering showers make their way across Deep South Texas. Later this afternoon into this evening, conditions are expected to dry out over the next few days as zonal flow and higher pressure take hold through the end of the workweek.

A pair of frontal boundaries is expected to move through Texas this weekend into early next week. The first is a weak frontal boundary that is expected to stall on Saturday before it reaches Deep South Texas. Temperatures are not expected to change from this first frontal boundary, as it will not make it through the area. However, The stalled boundary is expected to increase rain chances for the area (30 to 50%) for Saturday while it remains draped over the region. These should diminish Saturday night into Sunday as the boundary weakens and retreats northward away from the CWA.

A second stronger front will follow the first, and is expected to pass through Deep South Texas on Monday. This front is not expected to bring significant precipitation to Deep South Texas, but there is a small (20 to 30%) chance of a few showers and thunderstorms near the coast, and will also bring a northerly wind shift and a noticeable drop in temperatures.

Temperatures are expected to be unseasonably cool this afternoon as low ceilings are expected to hang on a few more hours and lingering showers persist over the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Highs today should stay in the lower 70s as a result, before ceilings begin to lift later this evening, allowing for warmer temperatures tomorrow. Temperatures are then expected to gradually warm to seasonal levels in the low 80s and reach the mid to upper 80s by the end of the weekend before a cold front brings high temperatures back into the 70s for Tuesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

IFR conditions are expected to persist a few more hours until ceilings gradually start to lift. MVFR conditions should return by late this afternoon (20-21z) and VFR conditions should return by the evening (02-04z). Conditions are expected to remain overcast despite higher ceilings, and wind should be light to moderate and northwesterly throughout the TAF period.

MARINE

Issued at 1206 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Overall favorable conditions are expected this evening and tonight. Thursday, the winds pick up on the outer Gulf waters, and Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are possible. Conditions should then improve again until Saturday, when the pressure gradient tightens due to a stalled frontal boundary, increasing the winds offshore. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions will be possible again. This will continue into Sunday, until Small Craft Advisory conditions become likely on Monday following the passage of a stronger cold front behind the initial stalled frontal boundary.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 67 75 63 81 / 10 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 64 75 59 80 / 10 0 0 0 MCALLEN 65 77 61 83 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 62 77 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 70 74 70 76 / 10 10 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 65 74 63 79 / 10 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.