textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1225 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Key Messages:

* Low to moderate (20-30%) chances of showers and a few thunderstorms Saturday.

* Moderate (30-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday.

* Marginal Risk of severe weather Sunday.

* Drier conditions and gradual warming is expected to commence Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1105 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Showers and thunderstorms remain the primary forecast concern through the weekend as a strong upper level shortwave moves across Northern Mexico and Texas. Precipitation probabilities around 20-30% will likely support isolated to scattered showers with a lower probability of thunderstorms Saturday.

The probability of precipitation increases to around 30-40% Sunday as increased forcing along the Sierra Madre Mountains paired with increased instability and ample wind shear will likely result in conditions favorable for the development of strong to severe thunderstorms over Northern Mexico. Convective models are increasingly supporting organized convection approaching Deep South Texas Sunday evening. CAPE values across the area Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening will likely range from 1000-1500 J/kg, though CIN values approaching 150-200 J/kg could hinder convection. The SPC has a Marginal Risk for severe weather across Deep South Texas Sunday.

Rain chances are forecast to diminish Monday and remain near zero through the remainder of the forecast. High temperatures are forecast to remain in the 80s through the weekend, gradually warming to the low to mid 90s by mid week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Light east winds with some low stratus decks prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. A mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings continue across portions of the area with widespread MVFR ceilings becoming likely overnight. VFR conditions are expected to return shortly after sunrise. However, showers and thunderstorms will increase late morning into the early afternoon. MVFR ceilings and/or visibilities are forecast for Saturday in and around any convection. Low stratus with MVFR ceilings return again Saturday evening.

MARINE

Issued at 1105 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Favorable marine conditions are forecast to continue Saturday with adverse conditions likely developing Sunday and lingering through much of the week. Stronger southeasterly winds are likely to develop Sunday building moderate seas along the off shore Gulf waters. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution statements may be needed each afternoon next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 84 73 84 73 / 30 10 10 10 HARLINGEN 85 70 86 70 / 30 10 20 10 MCALLEN 88 74 89 74 / 30 10 30 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 87 73 89 72 / 30 10 30 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 73 78 74 / 20 10 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 83 71 83 71 / 20 10 10 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.