textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1217 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Mainly dry conditions expected through midweek. Rain chances increase late week as a cold front approaches.

- Cold front could bring breezy conditions and coastal hazards late week in its wake.

- There is a moderate to major (level 2 to 3/4) risk of heat- related illness through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Mostly dry conditons expected through Thursday evening with only an isolated chance of a passing sea breeze shower or thunderstorm. As we head into late week an approaching cold front will increase rain chances late Thursday and Friday. Models suggest the aforementioned cold front may pass through Deep South Texas sometime Friday, with rain chances remaining in the forecast into the weekend, primarily along the coast, due to a coastal trough setting up.

In wake of the front, breezy northerly winds will increase and there is a chance we may see the need for a Wind Advisory late week as well as coastal flooding, high risk current risk and high surf. There is still some model disagreement on exact timing and strength so there will likely be some tweaks to the forecast in the coming days.

Temperatures will remain near to just above normal through the week with highs in the low to mid 90s though with a cold front passage temperatures look to be below normal for the weekend with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Heat indices will climb to 100-110 degrees through Wednesday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Could see some higher southeasterly wind gusts to around 20 kts though this afternoon before decreasing this evening.

MARINE

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Generally favorable conditions will prevail through much of the week with a few passing showers or thunderstorms possible. Could see some caution conditions on the Bay and Gulf waters midweek as the pressure gradient increases. A cold front will move through late week and bring increasing rain chances and adverse marine conditons. Small Craft Advisories and potential Gale Warnings may be needed late week/this weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 81 94 81 92 / 0 10 10 10 HARLINGEN 77 97 78 95 / 0 10 0 10 MCALLEN 80 99 81 98 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 99 79 99 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 89 83 87 / 0 10 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 93 79 90 / 0 10 0 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.