textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 500 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

- Dry, hot, and at times breezy conditions into Tuesday with daytime high temperatures ranging between the upper 80s to mid 90s.

- Cool front #1 arrives Tuesday evening; low-medium (20-40%) rain chances Tuesday afternoon-Tuesday night; best chances along and east of IH-69E/US 77.

- Cool front #2 approaches before potentially washing out later this week into next weekend bringing additional chances (20-60%) for rain Thursday evening through next Sunday.

- Temperatures trend from seasonable to unseasonably cool Friday through next Monday (i.e. high temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1033 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

A changeable weather pattern with fluctuating temperature trends and a couple chances for rain will take place through next weekend as at least one cool front looks to impact our weather here across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.

Hot and dry conditions will continue on Monday, courtesy of a 588- 591 dam heat ridge overhead. High temperatures most places will range between the low-mid 90s. It will be breezy at times on Monday as well with southeast winds 10-20 mph gusting as high as 30 mph. Tuesday will be very similar to Monday.

However, Tuesday evening, our first cool front, associated with an occluding mid-latitude cyclone or low pressure system in the Kansas/Oklahoma area, will push through Deep South Texas. Ahead and along the front, increased sfc convergence and residual low level moisture around could support the development of rain showers Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. We've maintained low grade (20-40%) PoPs/chances for showers developing Tuesday afternoon/Tuesday night with higher chances over the Gulf Waters. The best chance over land will generally be along and east of IH-69E. Excessive rain/flooding is not expected as the front is rather dry coming from the north (continental airmass).

Behind the cool front, cooler and drier air will advect into the region. On Wednesday, temperature anomalies will return to near seasonable levels with highs in the low to mid 80s. Rain-free weather conditions return on Wednesday behind the aforementioned cool front. Temperatures briefly moderate Thursday with high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Our next chance for showers and thunderstorms arrive Thursday night and persist through Sunday. This is in response to another cool front, that may wash out before making it into Deep South Texas, approaches the region. Ahead of the cool front, forecast models are indicating a weak shortwave trough developing nearby. If realized, shower and thunderstorm chances will increase over the region Thursday night through Sunday. Currently, we have low- medium (20-60%) PoPs/chances for showers and thunderstorms developing with the best chances (highest probabilities) generally being located near the Lower Texas Coast. Stay tuned for additional updates as we get closer into time.

Seasonable to unseasonably cool temperatures will develop Thursday night through next weekend. Finally, with these cool fronts, we will have to continue to keep close watch on the potential for fire weather threats and/or coastal/marine hazards through next weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 500 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

MVFR to VFR conditions will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours, with light to moderate winds with breezy gusts and clear to mostly cloudy skies.

MARINE

Issued at 1033 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Low to moderate winds and seas are expected through Tuesday. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions are then expected in response to the cool fropa Tuesday night into Wednesday. Low to moderate winds and seas return Wednesday night through Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 90 76 92 72 / 0 0 10 40 HARLINGEN 92 73 93 69 / 0 0 30 30 MCALLEN 95 77 95 71 / 0 0 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 94 73 90 66 / 0 0 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 77 84 73 / 0 0 10 50 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 87 74 89 70 / 0 0 10 40

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.