textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1048 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

- Above average high temperatures continue through Tuesday.

- A cold front pushes through Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing a medium (40-60%) chance of showers and thunderstorms across the region.

- More seasonable temperatures are forecast behind the front just in time for Thanksgiving, but won't stick around through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1048 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Hot, primarily rain-free conditions are expected to continue through Tuesday, with high temperatures well above normal for late November. Daily high temperature records will be neared, tied, or broken. A low-level jet will maintain gusty southeasterly winds, around 30 kts Monday ahead of an approaching initial frontal boundary. This boundary may drift into the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country late this afternoon, bringing a shift of winds from the north before stalling. At lower Texas beaches, there is a high risk of rip currents through Monday evening.

Tuesday night, a second cold front accelerating across the CWA will provide a medium chance of rain (40 to 60%) overnight into early Wednesday across the CWA, with a lingering low to medium chance of showers (20 to 40%) through Wednesday afternoon along the Rio Grande. There is a chance for strong thunderstorms along the front.

Cooler air will advect in behind the front, bringing more seasonable temperatures Wednesday and Thursday. These will not last long, as above-average temperatures gradually return Friday onward.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1048 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Southeasterly winds around 10-15 kts will continue overnight. Between midnight and sunrise, low clouds may develop, which have a 30% chance of bringing occasional MVFR ceilings to sites. Monday morning, southerly winds become gusty around 30kts. VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites.

MARINE

Issued at 1048 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Adverse conditions with gusty south winds and moderate seas will prevail through Monday afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect from midnight Monday until 3 PM CST Monday afternoon. Conditions gradually improve as an approaching frontal boundary stalls over South Texas. A second, stronger cold front is expected to cross over lower Texas Waters late Tuesday, once again returning adverse conditions. Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines and SCA are likely Wednesday. Rain chances are low (20%) Monday night into Tuesday, increasing to medium (50 to 60%) across the waters as the cold front pushes through. Lightning, gusty winds, and reduced visibility with heavy rain are possible in any storms.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 87 74 88 71 / 10 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 88 69 90 67 / 10 0 0 0 MCALLEN 90 72 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 91 69 92 66 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 77 83 75 / 10 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 86 72 87 69 / 10 0 0 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Monday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175.