textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 950 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

- Chilliest morning of the forecast today - Sunday morning - with brief freezing temperatures possible in portions of the northern Ranchlands.

- A bit cool today, but there is warming trend through Tuesday. A brief cooldown Wednesday and Thursday with a cold front. Sunny and pleasant early February weather returns to close next week.

- Favorable boating conditions into Monday. Deteriorating conditions Tuesday ahead of the next front, then a brief improvement before increasing winds and seas by Wednesday night behind the front.

- Moderate surf today; worsens behind a cold front Wednesday. Swimmers in the cool surf should remain alert to shifting rip and longshore currents.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 950 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Minimum temperatures Sunday morning have been trending warmer in the latest model runs. Brief freezing temperatures are possible in the northern Ranchlands for an hour or two around sunrise Sunday. Moisture advection in the low levels may increase cloud cover overnight, which would limit radiational cooling and keep temperatures warmer than initially expected. Easterly winds at 850mb will continue to advect moisture, veering southeasterly to the surface Sunday, beginning a gradual warming increase through the week. High temperatures Sunday in the mid 60s to 70 will gradually increase through Tuesday with highs into the 80s likely.

A shortwave/disturbance over the desert southwest will eject towards south-central US will force another cold front into deep South Texas midweek. There is a low (less than 20%) chance of showers Wednesday associated with the front, primarily along the coast and low to mid RGV. At this time, a frigid cooldown is not expected with this front - highs midweek drop into the low 70s (60s along coast). The coolest nights are forecasted Wednesday and Thursday with lows in the 40s. Recent model runs have been trending the cool air behind this midweek front being ushered out rather quickly. At present, the latter half of next week looks to be warm and dry.

Moisture returning to the atmosphere with southerly flow today into early this week will raise dewpoints and lessen fire weather concerns - which are low for the entirety of the period. Breezy winds are forecast for Monday and Tuesday thanks to a LLJ ahead of the aforementioned cold front.

A moderate risk of rip currents will persist through Sunday. Conditions at lower TX beaches will likely deteriorate into early- midweek in association with the cold front.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 950 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through the 06Z TAF cycle. Light north-northeasterly winds tonight become easterly Sunday morning. At the tail end of the cycle, cloud cover begins to build from MFE towards the coast and may bring brief periods of MVFR.

MARINE

Issued at 950 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Moderate onshore winds shift southeasterly, becoming gentle later in the day Sunday. Seas decrease to slight Sunday, persisting through Monday, before moderate seas return Tuesday in response to an approaching cold front. Small Craft Exercise Caution to Small Craft Advisory headlines may be necessary Wednesday. Ahead of and along the front Wednesday, there is a low to medium chance (20-40%) of showers over the waters. Conditions improve into next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 63 46 67 56 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 61 39 67 50 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 64 43 69 54 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 64 38 67 51 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 60 52 64 59 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 61 47 66 55 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.