textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1213 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Key Messages:

* Unseasonably warm and dry conditions expected through the remainder of the week.

* Heat Risk returns Friday and continues into next week. Heat Advisories could be possible by Monday.

* Low to Moderate rain chances return early next week and should persist throughout the week due to a surface disturbance.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Unseasonably warm temperatures and rain-free conditions are expected through the weekend due to upper level ridging over Texas. There is a Minor (level 1 of 4) Heat Risk this afternoon, and is expected to continue Friday. Heat Risk will increase to Moderate (level 2 of 4) for Saturday and Sunday. By Monday and Tuesday, there will be areas of Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk particularly east of I-69C, and Heat Advisories may be needed for the affected areas.

The next chance for rain will be Monday night, when the atmosphere becomes more unsettled as a surface low develops over northeastern Mexico. Some showers and thunderstorms could form off of the Sierra Madre and make their way into the western portions of Deep South Texas in the evening hours. As of now, chances are low to moderate (30 to 40%). Chances will be slightly lower for Tuesday, but as the surface trough moves closer to our area, the atmosphere will remain unsettled and chances will become more widespread at around 30 to 40% for all of Deep South Texas through at least Thursday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions will persist at all airports for the duration of the period. Winds will be light to moderate and southeasterly with an occasional gust.

MARINE

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Favorable conditions are expected the next few days, but winds will increase due to a tightening pressure gradient creating SCEC and possibly Small Craft Advisory conditions by Friday. These could continue through early next week before conditions improve by Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 90 74 90 76 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 92 70 92 72 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 95 72 94 75 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 94 70 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 77 83 78 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 89 74 89 76 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.