textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
Updated at 535 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025
- Breezy, warm, and dry conditions will continue across Deep South Texas through mid week.
- There is a medium, 30 to 40 percent, chance of rain Thursday into Friday with the passage of the next cold front.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 1029 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
Mid level ridging over Deep South Texas will move eastward mid to late week. This will result in rain-free conditions and above normal temperatures across region through at least Wednesday. The unseasonably temperatures may lead to record or near record high temperatures across the area Sunday through Thursday. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s, except for the 80s near the coast, each day under partly cloudy skies. Lows tonight are expected to fall in the 60s, except for the 70s along the beaches, will gradually increase into the upper 60s and into the 70s by early next week as low level moisture increases. Gusty southeast winds are expected each afternoon with a slight increase in winds Tuesday through Thursday as the pressure gradient strengthens. A 500mb trough approaching from the west on Thursday will bring a low to medium (20-50%) chance of rain/thunderstorms Thursday into Thursday night as a weak cold front may push into the region early Friday. Some slightly drier and cooler air may arrive by late week.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS) Issued at 535 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025
Brief LIFR will occur at the aerodromes this morning courtesy of fog. Otherwise, MVFR to VFR will prevail for the remainder of the period with light to moderate winds and clear to partly cloudy skies.
MARINE
Issued at 1029 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025
Moderate to breezy southeasterly winds will prevail each afternoon through late week due to an enhanced pressure gradient along the lower Texas coast. Exercise caution to borderline Small Craft Advisory conditions will be possible each day, especially Tuesday through Thursday. The next frontal boundary arrives Friday morning with winds briefly shifting to the north.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BROWNSVILLE 88 72 88 73 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 90 68 90 70 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 93 71 92 73 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 93 68 94 70 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 82 76 82 76 / 0 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 87 70 86 71 / 0 0 0 0
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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