textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 534 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

* Windy conditions will lead to fire weather concerns through Wednesday, and possibly into Thursday.

* Dry conditions and above normal temperatures expected into next week.

* Hazardous marine/coastal conditions expected through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1033 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Above normal temperatures and dry conditions will persist through the forecast period. The main headline will be breezy conditions and fire weather concerns over the next few days. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for portions of Deep South Texas and a Fire Danger statement has been issued for other areas. More information can be found in the Fire Weather discussion below.

Sfc high pressure over the Gulf moves east as a boundary approaches central Texas through Thursday. This will increase the pressure gradient across Deep South Texas and lead to gusty conditions into Wednesday and possibly Thursday. Overnight tonight, winds area expected to gust to 15-20 mph across the CWA. On Wednesday, the strongest gusts will be east of US-281/I69C with gusts around 30-35 mph. While current forecast guidance keeps eastern portions of the CWA just below Wind Advisory criteria, will continue to monitor for any changes needed. Thursday, southerly winds decrease slightly, but remain gusty up to 30 mph, mainly right along the coast.

Temperatures will remain quite warm through the forecast period. Thursday will be the warmest day with temperatures in the low to mid 90s, nearing 100 west of US-281/I69C. For the remainder of the forecast, despite the passage of a dry cold front on Thursday, highs around 90 and lows around 60 persist.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 534 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Moderate to gusty south winds and clear skies prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. BRO radar and upper data indicates winds between 35 to 40 knots around 2K Ft. Therefore, will include LLWS for the next several hours at all terminals. South winds will increase and breezy to windy by mid to late morning. Some gusts around 35 knots will be possible later this morning into the afternoon. Winds are expected to become moderate later this evening into the overnight hours.

MARINE

Issued at 1033 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

A tightening pressure gradient ahead of an approaching front will bring strong southerly winds through Wednesday night and building seas. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Wednesday night. Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines will likely be needed through Thursday. Friday, winds shift north- northeast following a weak frontal passage with favorable marine conditions returning by the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1033 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

A Red Flag Warning has been issued from 12 PM to 6 PM Wednesday for effect for inland Cameron, Hidalgo, inland Willacy, inland Kenedy, and Brooks counties. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for Zapata, Jim Hogg, and Starr counties.

Wednesday, lower minimum RHs and gusty conditions are expected. Primarily east of US- 281, southerly 20 foot winds of 15 kts or greater, with gusts to 30+ kts are forecast. Minimum relative humidities in the upper teens to 20s percent are expected west of US-281, and in the 20s-40s percent east of US-281. The gusty winds, low humidity, and the ongoing drought conditions with cured fuels will lead to rapid fire spread if ignition occurs.

Dry, gusty conditions continue through the latter half of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 83 67 88 64 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 87 62 94 62 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 92 64 99 66 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 95 59 99 62 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 68 79 67 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 83 64 88 63 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ250-251-253>255-353.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ251-254-255-351-354-355.

High Rip Current Risk through Thursday afternoon for TXZ451-454- 455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175.