textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 127 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Key Messages:

- Rain chances return for Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Temperatures will increase through the week with most of the region in the mid to upper 90s by late week.

- Rain chances increase again this weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Expecting a pretty dry day today across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. Chances remain about 10% or less, though we could see some isolated seabreeze activity. A few CAMs also still have a some isolated Sierra Madre convection later this afternoon into tonight, but that activity is not expected to make it to Texas.

Tuesday, rain chances once again will increase as an upper level trough moves into West Texas. We will continue to have plenty of moisture to work with and PWATs are forecasted to increase to 2 to 2.25 inches on Tuesday lingering into Wednesday. This abundant moisture along with the upper level disturbance will support heavy rainfall with any shower or thunderstorm activity. WPC has placed Zapata, Jim Hogg, and northwestern Brooks county in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 out of 4) of excessive rainfall on Tuesday. On Wednesday this area shifts eastward with eastern Jim Hogg Brooks, Kenedy, much if Hidalgo, Willacy, and Cameron counties in a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall. In addition SPC has placed all of Deep South Texas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) for severe weather Tuesday and Tuesday night and a general risk of thunderstorms on Wednesday. While we could see a few showers and thunderstorms develop Tuesday afternoon, it looks as though the main threat will be Tuesday evening/overnight associated with a squall line moving through the area. Main hazards with this activity will be winds in excesses of 58 mph, hail of 1 inch or greater, and heavy rainfall.

While drier conditions return Thursday and Friday, there will be a low chance sea breeze shower/thunderstorms. Yet another upper level disturbance approaches late this weekend with rain and thunderstorm chances increasing again Sunday into Tuesday.

Temperatures will remain near to just above seasonal norms through the forecast period.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Light northeasterly winds will continue through the day today with VFR conditions. Overnight tonight, winds will remain light and variable with MVFR conditions expected mainly at HRL and MFE due to lowered ceilings.

MARINE

Issued at 127 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Favorable conditions will prevail on the waters off the lower texas coast this week. Could see some caution conditions on Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Generally seas of 2 to 4 feet are expected with 5 to 7 second periods.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 76 91 80 92 / 0 0 30 30 HARLINGEN 71 91 77 92 / 0 10 30 50 MCALLEN 75 92 79 95 / 0 20 40 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 74 91 76 95 / 0 20 40 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 85 81 86 / 0 0 30 50 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 75 89 79 91 / 0 10 30 50

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.