textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 638 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

- Medium to likely (40-80%) chances of rain continue along/east of I-69C Wednesday becoming a region- wide low to medium (30-60%) chance on Thursday with a low (30%) chance along the coast Friday.

- Tropical Depression Nine has developed in the southern Gulf. The forecast track keeps this system well offshore as it travels north through the central Gulf and direct impacts are not expected across Deep South Texas.

- Mostly minor risks of heat-related illnesses (level 1/4) become moderate (level 2/4) by next Monday as deep low-level moisture returns.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1056 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Elevated rain chances continue through Friday, primarily along and east of I-69C. Hi Res model guidance continues to support showers and thunderstorms developing over the Gulf and streaming inland with the northeasterly flow Wednesday. Cameron and Willacy counties will likely see the most rainfall, with 24 hour accumulations of 1-2 inches possible.

An upper level trough over the central US looks to dig further south, with an amplifying shortwave moving across South Texas Thursday. This will likely result in increased forcing across Deep South Texas , supporting isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the CWA Thursday afternoon.

Over the weekend, a drier pattern looks to develop, as low level winds shift back to the southeast and an upper level ridge builds across Texas. Mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the 90s are forecast through the weekend. Low rain chances are forecast to return early next week isolated showers and thunderstorms possible along the sea breeze.

Tropical Depression Nine has formed over the southern Gulf, and is forecast to reach Hurricane strength as it heads towards the northern Gulf Coast. With this system forecast to remain well offshore as it travels north through the Central Gulf, any impacts to Deep South Texas will likely be minimal.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Light northwest to north winds prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. BRO radar currently indicates some light to moderate activity over the Gulf waters extending inland near BRO. The probability of rain increases this morning with SHRA becoming likely at BRO and HRL. SHRA and TSRA will remain possible through the day with periods of MVFR to possible IFR conditions in and around in convection. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

MARINE

Issued at 1056 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Generally adverse to hazardous marine conditions are forecast to continue through Friday. Northeasterly winds between 15-20 knots will likely continue across the waters through Thursday, with stronger winds possible Friday. In response, seas are forecast to build to 5-6 feet by Friday. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines will likely be needed for much of this time period, with Small Craft Advisories possible.

Winds and seas look t o improve over the weekend as winds shift back to the southeast. Generally favorable marine conditions are likely through the remainder of the forecast.

Daily showers and thunderstorms over the Gulf waters will likely continue through Friday, though a gradual decrease in the coverage of storms is likely. Isolated showers will remain possible over the offshore waters through the weekend.

Tropical Depression 9 has formed over the southern Gulf, and is forecast to reach Hurricane strength as it heads towards the northern Gulf Coast. This system is forecast to remain well offshore as it travels north through the Central Gulf. Some increase in swell is possible along the Lower Texas Coast, however, the forecast track likely wont support significant impacts to Deep South Texas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 90 77 92 77 / 80 40 60 20 HARLINGEN 92 72 94 72 / 60 20 50 10 MCALLEN 96 76 97 74 / 40 10 30 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 94 73 95 71 / 10 10 30 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 81 86 80 / 80 60 50 30 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 76 90 77 / 80 40 50 20

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.