textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1246 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

* A Heat Advisory is in effect this afternoon from 1 PM CDT to 8 PM CDT.

* An Extreme Heat Watch is in effect tomorrow for the same times (1 PM to 8 PM CDT).

* There is a low chance (20 to 30%) of Sierra Madre showers and thunderstorms impacting the Western Ranchlands Saturday evening into overnight.

* There is a Moderate Risk of life-threatening Rip Currents at area beaches through tomorrow afternoon. Due to the presence of Tropical Storm Arthur in the Gulf, this risk could increase (along with other coastal hazards) over the next few days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Heat Risk is the biggest concern the rest of the week as air sinks and warms behind Tropical Storm Arthur, which has now formed offshore and is expected to impact the Upper Texas and Louisiana Coast while moving away from our area. Skies have cleared out, but the air remains humid, which is going to drive elevated heat indices for the remainder of the week into the weekend. A Heat Advisory has been issued for the lower and eastern counties this afternoon into the evening, as heat indices are expected to climb over 111 degrees for some areas this afternoon.

The heat indices are expected to be even more dangerous tomorrow as subsidence continues, with widespread "feel like" values of over 120 expected through Deep South Texas. An Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for all of Deep South Texas (excepting the islands) for tomorrow afternoon through evening. As guidance continues to increase confidence, we are expecting to upgrade tomorrow's watch to a warning once today's Heat Advisory expires. In addition, a Heat Advisory may be needed overnight Thursday into Friday as temperatures will remain elevated into the overnight hours. Another Extreme Heat Warning may be needed for Friday, and Heat Advisories are expected to be needed into the weekend too.

Conditions should be overall rain-free throughout the next week, except for Saturday evening when there is a low (20 to 30%) chance that the Western Ranchland Counties could see some Sierra Madre convection move into the CWA late Saturday evening and overnight. Flooding shouldn't be much a concern as chances and confidence are too low, but an isolated flash flood cannot be ruled out if an area that already received heavy rainfall earlier this week also receives heavy rainfall from a Sierra Madre storm.

As aforementioned, Tropical Storm Arthur is not expected to directly impact Deep South Texas. As of now, there is a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents at local area beaches through tomorrow afternoon. However, increased swell and wave heights from Arthur's presence in the Gulf could potentially create a higher risk of rip currents and elevated surf at area beaches later this week. This is something that will continued to be monitored.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

VFR conditions with clear skies and southeasterly winds are expected at all airports. Some scattered clouds could develop by 21z.

MARINE

Issued at 1246 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Favorable conditions will give way to SCEC conditions later tonight into tomorrow. Intermittent SCEC and possibly Small Craft Advisories may be needed this weekend. The necessity for Small Craft Advisories will largely depend on how much Tropical Storm Arthur impacts the wave heights off the lower Texas Coast, and will continue to be monitored. Conditions should improve by early next week back to favorable with continued light to moderate southeasterly winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 83 97 84 96 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 80 98 81 97 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 81 101 83 99 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 79 103 81 99 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 85 91 85 90 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 82 96 83 94 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Extreme Heat Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for TXZ248>255-351-353>355.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ251>255-351- 353>355.

GM...None.