textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 649 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- A Flood Watch is in effect from Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning.

- There is a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall across Deep South Texas tonight. There is now a Slight (level 2 of 4) to Moderate (level 3 of 4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall across the area Monday and Monday night. There is a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall across Deep South Texas Tuesday and Tuesday night. - A Moderate to Major (levels 2-3 of 4) Heat Risk is forecast Thursday into Saturday. Heat Advisories may be needed Thursday and Friday.

- The National Hurricane Center continues a low chance (30%) of tropical development over the northwestern Gulf over the next 7 days.

UPDATE

Issued at 350 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

The Weather Prediction Center has upgraded most of Deep South Texas to a Moderate (level 3 of 4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall for Monday and Monday night. Generally, along and east of US 77/I-69E and a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall remains east to the coast. No other changes needed at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 226 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

A low-level jet along the Gulf coast will continue to advect tropical moisture into the region. PWAT values are forecast to remain above 2 inches with peak amounts exceeding 2.5 inches. Weak forcing aloft associated with a broad mid-level low pressure system over eastern Mexico will likely support isolated scattered showers and thunderstorms through Monday. Additional activity is possible along the sea breeze Sunday and Monday afternoons.

The mid level low is forecast to tighten with a stronger surface low developing over Northern Mexico Monday evening. This low will likely slowly track east across South Texas Tuesday and Wednesday, increasing PWAT values to 2.7 inches and supporting widespread heavy rainfall. The heaviest period of rain will likely occur Monday morning through Wednesday morning, with 48 hour rainfall accumulations of 3-6 inches likely across most of the area and locally higher amounts exceeding 8 inches possible. The Weather Prediction Center has all of Deep South Texas except for the immediate coast and barrier islands under a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall (level 2 of 4) Monday, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) along the coast. There is a Slight Risk across the CWA Tuesday, and on Wednesday a Slight Risk will cover the eastern third of the CWA with a Marginal Risk across the central portions of the CWA. A Flood Watch is in effect for all of Deep South Texas Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning.

As the low pressure system moves into the Gulf the National Hurricane Center has a 30% chance for tropical development through day 7. Any development at that point would likely have minimal impact on Deep South Texas, though some increased swell along the coast is possible, which could result in minor coastal flooding and increased rip current risk.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 649 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Moderate to gusty southeast winds and BKN mid to high clouds prevail across Deep South Texas early this evening. Winds will gradually decrease later this evening with VFR to MVFR ceilings likely overnight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday morning into the afternoon. Brief MVFR or IFR conditions will be possible in and around any convection. Light southeast winds overnight will become moderate to gusty in the late morning and afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 226 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Marine conditions are forecast to continue improving this afternoon with light to moderate winds and moderate seas persisting through Tuesday. Winds and seas are forecast to increase through the later half of the week with adverse to hazardous conditions likely Wednesday and Thursday.

Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will be likely through Wednesday as a low pressure system moves across Deep South Texas and into the Western Gulf. The National Hurricane Center has a 30% chance for tropical development with this system. If the system does develop, impacts along the Lower Texas Coast will likely be limited to increased swell.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 81 90 79 86 / 60 60 80 80 HARLINGEN 78 90 76 85 / 60 70 80 90 MCALLEN 79 91 78 86 / 50 70 90 90 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 91 75 85 / 40 60 90 90 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 88 81 86 / 70 50 70 80 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 89 78 86 / 60 60 80 80

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning for TXZ248>255-351-353>355-451-454-455.

High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ451-454- 455.

GM...None.