textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 135 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

- There is a Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk through the forecast end of the week and into the weekend.

- The National Hurricane Center indicates a low chance (10%) of tropical development with a broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche, which is expected to move over eastern Mexico this weekend. This will result in low to medium rain chances beginning on Friday.

- Unsettled weather continues into early next week as remnant tropical moisture interacts with an approaching frontal boundary.

- There is a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents at area beaches through at least Thursday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Seasonable temperatures, triple-digit heat index values, and generally rain-free conditions will be the main weather highlights through the end of the week as mid and upper level ridging continue to influence Deep South Texas. Isolated streamer showers or sea breeze activity cannot be ruled out this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon, but overall chances are fairly low (15% or less) and should be rather short-lived as the activity moves inland. Otherwise, the combination of mild nights, hot afternoons, and high humidity will result in a moderate (level 2 of 4) heat risk across all of Deep South Texas. Continue to practice heat safety if spending a prolonged period of time outdoors take frequent breaks in the shade, stay hydrated, and wear loose- fitting, light colored clothing.

Our attention will turn to a more unsettled weather pattern Friday through early next week due to two different weather set ups. This will result in the return of near daily precipitation chances across most of Deep South Texas beginning Friday afternoon. There still remains uncertainty on the exact amounts and timing of any showers and thunderstorms at this time, but the set up is favorable for increasing rain chances and efficient rain-producing showers and thunderstorms that may lead to nuisance or isolated flooding across portions of the region. Probabilistic guidance is keying in on locally heavy rainfall early next week.

Friday through the weekend: An influx of deep tropical moisture associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Cristina, along with a tropical wave translating from the Caribbean towards the Bay of Campeche later this week will be the main weather features responsible for our increasing precipitation chances. The latest suite of guidance continues to indicate plume of precipitable water values upwards of 2.0 inches will likely reach Deep South Texas on Friday and Saturday. This should result in a more active sea breeze (at a minimum), although the presence of instability and anomalously high moisture content would support waves of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the period. There should be a lull in activity during the overnight hours, with the exception being along the immediate coast and Gulf waters. Any showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, and isolated amounts upwards of 1 inch cannot be ruled out with any robust activity. Otherwise, NHC maintains a low chance (10%) of tropical development as the aforementioned tropical wave translates towards eastern Mexico this weekend.

Early next week: The unsettled weather will continue as anomalously high moisture content remains in place across the region and interacts with an upper level system translating across the Plains and attendant cold front tracking across the state. The latest guidance highlights the potential for a heavy rain set up by Tuesday and/or Wednesday across Deep South Texas. While it is still too early to get into rain amount specifics, probabilistic guidance is keying in on a low potential (10% or less) of amounts upwards of 3 inches across portions of the area. Still far too early to anchor on these values, but worth keeping an eye and checking back for updates.

Otherwise, a moderate risk of rip currents will continue along the lower Texas beaches through at least Thursday evening. Adverse beach conditions, including coastal runup, cannot be ruled out as swell increases this weekend with the aforementioned broad area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 135 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VFR will prevail through most of the forecast period at all TAF sites outside of a brief period of MVFR ceilings during the early morning hours tomorrow. Southeast winds around 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots will continue through late this evening before subsiding slightly overnight and tomorrow morning.

MARINE

Issued at 135 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Generally favorable marine conditions will continue through the work week with slight to moderate seas and low to moderate southeast winds. SCEC conditions may return during the afternoon hours by Thursday and Friday. Adverse marine conditions return this weekend with increasing swell as a tropical wave approaches eastern Mexico, and Small Craft Advisories may be needed. Rain chances increase over the Gulf waters by this weekend and continue into early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 81 94 81 93 / 10 10 10 10 HARLINGEN 78 93 78 92 / 10 10 10 10 MCALLEN 80 96 80 95 / 10 10 10 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 98 78 96 / 0 0 0 30 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 83 88 83 87 / 10 10 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 91 81 90 / 10 10 10 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.