textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1218 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

- Unseasonably hot and overall rain-free conditions are expected to continue through the week.

- Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk is expected increase to areas of Extreme (level 4 of 4) Heat Risk this week.

- A combination of dry fuels, low relative humidity, and hot temperatures will lead to elevated fire danger risks.

- A low (20% or less) chance of sea breeze showers and thunderstorms returns Friday for areas E of I69E and continues through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Strong upper-level ridging over West Texas and the Desert Southwest is expected to remain dominant over the next week, keeping conditions abnormally hot and overall rain-free over Deep South Texas. High temperatures should reach the triple digits each day, with record temperatures possible. Low temperatures will provide little relief from the heat, remaining in the upper 70s/lower 80s. Heat Risk will be a concern too, with Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk expected to increase to Extreme (level 4 of 4) in some areas by Wednesday. Heat indices are generally expected to be between 105 to 110, but some areas (particularly in the coastal counties) could briefly see values exceeding 111 throughout the week. Special Weather Statements and/or Heat Advisories may be needed throughout the week due to high heat indices.

A small influx of Gulf moisture is expected later this week, and a low (20% or less) chance of sea breeze convection returns Friday afternoon and continues through at least Sunday afternoon. Showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two are possible mainly for areas east of I-69E.

Hot temperatures, dry fuels, and low relative humidities over the next few days (particularly in the western counties) will also enhance potential wildfire danger throughout Deep South Texas. Fires could catch quickly due to the hot, dry conditions. Gusty winds up to 25-30 mph each afternoon could also encourage rapid spread if any fires happen to start. Therefore, outdoor burning is not recommended this week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected at all airports with southeasterly winds that could become gusty at times. Gusty winds should subside by the evening.

MARINE

Issued at 1218 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Favorable marine conditions are expected throughout the week with low wave heights (1 to 2 feet) and light to moderate southeasterly winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 80 98 80 98 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 76 102 77 102 / 0 10 0 0 MCALLEN 80 104 80 104 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 105 78 105 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 90 81 90 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 97 78 97 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.