textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 533 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

- Potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding across the Lower Rio Grande Valley continues through Monday morning.

- Residents living along the Los Olmos Creek near Falfurrias in Brooks county should monitor the potential for elevated river levels to even minor river flooding overnight tonight into Monday morning due to excessive rainfall upstream.

- High Risk of Rip Currents continues Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1105 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Scattered to widespread showers are forecast to continue through Monday morning, with rain chances decreasing through the afternoon. Additional rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches with isolated pockets up to 4 inches are possible across the area through Monday night. Convective allowing models continue to show a wide range of solutions for where the highest rainfall is likely to occur, though the HRRR has shown the most skill through the event thus far, and continues to depict the highest concentration and intensity of showers east of I-69C. Estimated and measured rainfall accumulations of 1-2 inches with pockets of 4-5 inches across the coastal counties Sunday has saturated the soil leaving much of the area more susceptible to flooding with additional rainfall. Even with the lower rainfall amounts forecast Monday, additional flooding will remain possible, especially across areas that received heavy rainfall on Sunday. Daily low to moderate rain chances are forecast to linger through Thursday.

A Flood Advisory remains in effect for the Los Olmos Creek near Falfurrias in Brooks County. Due to heavy rainfall upstream in the CRP CWA, the creek is forecast to crest at action stage, just below minor flood stage, tonight.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 533 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Unsettled weather is expected at the aerodromes, with rounds of showers anticipated. Light veering winds will also occur under mostly cloudy skies.

MARINE

Issued at 1105 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

Hazardous marine conditions along the Lower Texas Coast are forecast to continue through Monday morning, with conditions gradually improving through the afternoon. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through 6 AM Monday, and Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines will likely be needed through Monday afternoon. Generally favorable conditions are forecast to return by Monday night, and continue through mid week. Another round of adverse conditions will be possible late this week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 80 70 81 70 / 80 40 50 20 HARLINGEN 79 67 79 67 / 80 40 40 20 MCALLEN 79 69 79 70 / 80 50 30 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 76 62 75 64 / 70 60 40 20 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 77 73 78 72 / 80 40 70 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 68 79 68 / 80 30 70 20

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through this afternoon for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.