textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1053 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

- Another cool night is expected with light winds and clear skies; Sunday will feature another cool day with highs mainly in the 70s.

- A warming trend begins next week with highs generally in the mid- upper 80s to lower 90s (warmest west).

- There will be day-to-day or near day-to-day low-medium (20-50%) rain chances Sunday through Wednesday; best chances will be near/along the coast and over the Gulf Waters.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1053 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Our first taste of Autumn continues this weekend Across Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, with temperatures ranging 10-20F degrees below average for mid-October standards. Northerly winds have eased from this afternoon. Sufficient radiational cooling through the combination of light winds and clear skies will result in overnight lows falling into the 50s tonight. Continued cool air advection (CAA) on Sunday will help to hold high temperatures in the 70s most places.

A warming trend will commence on Monday and continue through the upcoming workweek as a 588-591 dam heat ridge strengthens over the region. High temperatures generally will range between the mid-upper 80s to low 90s (warmest west) each day for the upcoming workweek.

There will day-to-day or near day-to-day low-medium (20-50%) chances for rain showers Sunday through Wednesday, courtesy of a nearby weak shortwave trough. The best chances will be near/along the coast (i.e. along/east of IH-69E) and over the Gulf Waters.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 535 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Through 00z Monday....VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 00z TAF cycle.

Northerly winds 10-15 kts gusting to 20-25 kts will wane as the evening progresses to 5-10 kts later tonight. There could be a few gusts overnight between 15-20 kts, especially for KBRO and KHRL. During the day on Sunday, northerly winds will continue with speeds between 5-15 kts with some occasional gusts up to 20 kts. Later Sunday afternoon/evening, these winds will subside to speeds up to 5 kts (if not calm) by Sunday night.

MARINE

Issued at 1053 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Adverse marine conditions will continue into the upcoming workweek. Our Small Craft Advisory will expire at 1AM CDT. Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions will continue Sunday through much of the week. Otherwise, day-to-day or near day-to-day rain chances will exist through Wednesday of next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 59 77 67 83 / 0 10 30 30 HARLINGEN 54 78 64 84 / 0 10 20 40 MCALLEN 55 79 65 86 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 52 77 63 85 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 64 76 72 81 / 0 40 30 50 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 59 77 67 82 / 0 30 30 50

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ451-454-455.

High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ451-454-455.

High Surf Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175.