textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 501 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- Hot with generally rain-free conditions through next weekend. However, there is a low (10-20%) rain chance across the Ranchlands on Monday and again across the Ranchlands and near the coast midweek.

- Highs in the mid to upper 90s along with afternoon heat indices of 100-110 degrees will maintain mostly moderate heat risks (level 2 of 4) through the week.

- There is a medium risk of life-threatening rip currents through at least Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1037 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Generally rain-free and hot conditions are forecast through late week into the weekend. However, there is a low (10-20%) rain chances expected across the northern ranchlands on Monday with the seabreeze. The primary threat from any stronger thunderstorm will be heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning. There is a low (10-20%) rain chances expected again across the northern ranchlands and near the coast as a mid-level disturbance moves over South Texas. The combination of high moisture content, weakness aloft and daytime will support mainly daytime showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. Some convection will be possible across the coastal waters Tuesday and Wednesday night as well. Rain-free conditions return Thursday into the weekend as subsidence increases.

Near normal temperatures are expected through the period with highs in the mid to upper 90s and lows in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. Elevated dewpoints and hot temperatures will lead to heat index values between 100-110 degrees each afternoon. This will maintain mainly a moderate heat risk (level 2 of 4) each day.

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue along the lower Texas beaches through at least mid week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 501 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Through 12z Tuesday....VFR conditions will prevail through the 12z TAF period, though there could be a few MVFR clouds around at times, especially at night.

Winds will continue out of the southeast 5-15 kts through the TAF period. Winds could gusts as high as 20-25 kts during the afternoon hours.

MARINE

Issued at 1037 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Favorable conditions will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast through late week. Moderate southeast winds and low to moderate seas are expected through the period. However, can not rule out a brief period of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions in the afternoon. There is a low rain chance (10-20%) Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winds and seas will be possible with any showers and thunderstorms that develop.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 94 80 94 81 / 10 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 95 77 95 78 / 10 0 0 0 MCALLEN 98 79 99 81 / 10 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 99 77 99 79 / 10 10 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 81 88 82 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 79 92 79 / 10 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.