textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 603 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

- Low to medium (20-50%) chances of rain today across the region, with highest chances along the coast and in the mid- upper RGV.

- Outside of isolated showers possible Saturday, skies should remain mostly dry through the weekend. Low to medium chances of rain return early next week.

- Near average temperatures and patchy to widespread minor risks of heat-related illnesses (level 1/4) continue.

- A medium risk of rip currents continues through tomorrow afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1049 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Elevated rain chances continue today as deep moisture interacts with an upper level disturbance. Scattered showers over the Gulf waters will continue to move west-southwest, bringing welcome rain to the coast and NE Ranchlands through this morning. As moisture encroaches westward, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will move southwest through Thursday afternoon. Shower coverage should diminish as it travels inland, with low to moderate PoPs (30-60%), highest along the coast and in the mid-upper RGV. Rainfall amounts should generally be less than a half an inch, but isolated higher amounts to 2.5 inches are possible under heavier showers. Rain chances diminish Friday. Saturday, another upper level disturbance will interact with a plume of moist air, bringing low PoPs (20% or less) to the region. Rain chances increase again early next week ahead of an approaching trough.

High pressure will maintain mostly fair weather outside of showers. Temperatures remain seasonable with highs in the upper 80s and lows in the 60s to low 70s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 603 AM CDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Light winds with multi-layered cloud decks prevail across Deep South Texas early this morning. Latest BRO radar indicates a cluster of activity across the Gulf waters extending inland near the coast. This area of SHRA and isolated TSRA is forecast to move west-southwest and may impact the terminals later this morning into the afternoon. Therefore, will maintain PROB30s at all RGV aerodromes for this afternoon. The increase in moisture has allowed ceilings to lower to MVFR or IFR levels early this morning and these low ceilings may linger through the mid- morning hours, especially at MFE. In addition, MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible in heavier convection.

MARINE

Issued at 1049 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Gentle to moderate onshore winds prevail, with seas decreasing to slight through Thursday. There is a low to medium (20-60%) chance of rain Thursday, with highest chances near the coast. Occasional moderate gusts may bring intermittent Caution conditions each afternoon through Saturday. Winds increase and seas build to moderate this weekend ahead of an approaching trough, returning adverse marine conditions.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 83 68 86 71 / 50 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 84 65 86 67 / 50 0 0 0 MCALLEN 87 68 90 69 / 50 10 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 88 66 90 67 / 40 10 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 72 80 74 / 40 0 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 67 83 70 / 40 0 0 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.