textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1130 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

- Fire weather still a concern for this Sunday.

- May-like high temperatures are expected to persist through the rest of this week, before a cold front moves through on Saturday. - A cold front is expected to move through Deep South Texas on Saturday, which could result in multiple different hazards affecting the waters, coast, and inland. Keeping a particular eye out for fire weather conditions and rip currents.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1130 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

The sub-tropical ridge that has been lingering over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley is expected to retreat over the next could of days allowing for a zonal flow like pattern to set up ahead of the weekend. The southerly to southeasterly flow at the surface will continue to bring in more warm and moist air, despite the moisture advection that is occurring, rain chances remain very low (less than 10%) for the next several days. However, the May-like high temperatures are expected to continue into the weekend. The high temperatures are expected to be in the range of upper 80s and lower 90s, which will bring a minor heat risk to the area.

An upper level trough currently making its way into the Central Plains and should stay to the north of the region. However, this upper level trough will push help push a cold front through the region on Saturday. Currently the forecast keeps rain chances very low (less than 10%) with this frontal passage, but it is possible that a few rogue showers could occur along the coast. One of the larger concerns with this front is the potential for Fire Weather as dry air moves in behind the front. Sunday has minimum relative humidity values in the range of upper teens and 20s in the Upper Valley and the Northern Ranchlands to lower 40s for the Lower Valley. While the 20-foot winds are not expected to be strong behind the front, extreme caution should be used with working near any open flames or sparks due the ongoing drought conditions.

Lastly, along the coast the local beaches will see elevated rip current risks through the rest of the period and are likely to see a High Risk of Rip Currents this weekend due to the cold front. There is a potential for other coastal hazards as well, which will be determined as we get closer to this event.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

VFR conditions should continue through the afternoon and evening hours at all TAF sites. However, during the overnight and early morning hours, low-level clouds are expected to move over the region that will reduce ceilings to MVFR or IFR conditions. VFR conditions are expected to return by the mid-morning hours tomorrow. Gusty southerly winds are expected to persist through the afternoon and early evening hours at all the TAF sites as well with some gusts getting up to 25 knots. However the winds should weaken by tonight and stay light for the overnight hours.

MARINE

Issued at 1130 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the eastern Gulf and a weak trough of low pressure over the Sierra Madre through Western Texas will foster the southeasterly flow over the Lower Texas Coast. Stronger winds are possible each afternoon for the next several days, which could result in periods of Small Craft Exercise Caution. However, this does not rule out the possibility of a low-end Small Craft Advisory being needed. A cold front is expected to move through the Lower Texas Coast this Saturday into Sunday that could bring hazardous conditions. This event is more likely to result in Small Craft Advisories being needed for Saturday and Sunday, before and after the cold front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 68 87 69 88 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 64 92 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 68 95 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 64 96 65 95 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 68 79 69 79 / 0 0 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 66 87 66 86 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.