textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 127 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Key Messages:

- Breezy conditions continue each afternoon through Friday.

- A moderate risk of rip currents will likely prevail through the week.

- Moderate to high chance (60-80%) of rain this weekend in association with a cold front moving through Texas.

- Coastal and marine hazards are expected this weekend behind a cold front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Little change to the forecast through early this weekend. High pressure to our east continues to maintain warm, dry, and breezy weather through Saturday morning. Above average temperatures with highs around 90 (upper 70s-80s near the coast) and morning lows in the low 70s through Saturday. Breezy southeasterly winds will continue, with gusts around 35 mph possible each afternoon. Gusts are expected to peak on Friday. These should stay below Wind Advisory criteria, but Friday in particular will continue to be monitored.

At local beaches, there is a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents through at least Thursday. Gusty winds in conjunction with a new moon this Friday will likely keep the risk elevated through the week.

A cold front expected to sweep through deep South Texas late Saturday into Sunday will bring cooler temperatures and be able to tap into the anomalously high moisture content brought about by persistent southeasterly flow. Rain chances increase late Saturday evening through Monday, with thunderstorms possible. Coastal troughing behind the front may continue light stratiform rain through Tuesday. The greatest chance of rain and thunderstorms at this time is from midnight Sunday to Sunday night, with moderate to high chances (60-80%) region wide - highest chances along the upper RGV. Early rainfall amounts are still uncertain, but most likely around 0.5-1.0" between Sunday and Monday. Check back for updates as we continue to refine the forecast.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Scattered to broken cloud cover will continue through the afternoon with VFR conditions prevailing. Brief MVFR cannot be ruled out with low clouds increasing in coverage temporarily. Southeasterly winds gusting around 30 kts will continue this evening. Overnight, winds lessen and MVFR cigs build, persisting through Thursday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 127 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

A moderate to fresh onshore breeze maintains moderate seas into this weekend. An enhanced pressure gradient will bring periods of strong gusts on the Laguna Madre and nearshore Gulf waters out to 20 nm. This will likely result in Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines today and tomorrow afternoons, with brief gusts around 20 kts possible over the Laguna Madre. Flow increases Friday, leaving Small Craft Advisory conditions possible on the Laguna Madre in the afternoon. This weekend, Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely for all lower Texas waters in the wake of a cold front. Expect strong northeasterly flow with near-gale force gusts and rough seas Sunday into Monday. There is an increased chance of rain and thunderstorms Saturday night through Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 73 87 73 88 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 70 90 70 90 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 74 93 74 92 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 71 95 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 74 79 74 80 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 86 72 86 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.