textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 626 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- There is a Marginal (level 1 of 4) to Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall across Deep South Texas Sunday into Wednesday with heavy rainfall expected at times, especially Monday night through Tuesday night. A Flood Watch may be needed. - A Minor to Moderate (levels 1-2 of 4) Heat Risk will continue through Wednesday with a Moderate to Major (levels 2-3 of 4) Heat Risk late week into Saturday. Heat Advisories may be needed Thursday and Friday.

- There is a High Risk of life-threatening rip currents at area beaches this weekend. Increasing swell near high tide cycles may result in minor coastal flooding into early next week.

- The National Hurricane Center continues a low chance (20%) of tropical development with a broad area of low pressure near or across eastern Mexico out along the lower Texas coast and western Gulf over the next 7 days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1046 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Deep tropical moisture will continue to surge into Deep South Texas tonight and Sunday. This evening's 0Z Brownsville sounding indicated a PWAT value of 2.27 inches. The high moisture content combined with daytime heating will lead to a moderate to high (40-70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms across the area for Sunday with locally heavy rainfall possible. Rain wanes Sunday night across the region as another round of showers and thunderstorms develops over the Gulf waters and near the coast.

The National Hurricane Center continues a low chance (20%) of tropical development with a broad area of low pressure near or across eastern Mexico out along the lower Texas coast and western Gulf over the next 7 days.

The unsettled weather will continue across the region through Wednesday as the high moisture content remains in places as a weak frontal moves southward across the state. The interaction of the deep tropical airmass with the frontal boundary is expected to bring our best rain chances (60 to 80%) for Monday into Tuesday night. A Flood Watch may be needed Monday into Wednesday. Rainfall amounts between 2-4 inches Monday through Wednesday, with isolated amounts of 5-6 inches will be possible.

The Weather Prediction Center a Marginal (level 1 of 4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall across Deep South Texas today into tonight and Tuesday into Tuesday night. There is a Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk of Excessive Rainfall across western half of the CWA (Zapata, Starr, Jim Hogg and Brooks Counties) and a Marginal (level 1 of 4) for the eastern portions of the area, Hidalgo and the Coastal Counties. Rain chances gradually decrease from west to east Wednesday into Wednesday night.

The increased cloud cover and rain chances will lead to slightly lower daytime temperatures through midweek. Drier weather returns on Thursday as high humidity continues. There is a Moderate to Major (levels 2-3 of 4) Heat Risk Thursday into Saturday. Heat Advisories may be needed Thursday and Friday.

Life-threatening rip currents at the local beaches will continue through midweek. Increasing swell near high tide cycles may result in minor coastal flooding into early next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

A pair of TEMPOs remain in each of the TAFs for the possibility of convection. Overall, MVFR to VFR continues to be anticipated with light to moderate winds with breezy daytime gusts.

MARINE

Issued at 1046 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Slightly adverse to adverse marine conditions will continue into Sunday night due to an enhanced pressure gradient from a broad area of low pressure over eastern Mexico. Exercise Caution conditions are expected on the the Laguna Madre and Small Advisory conditions will continue tonight through Sunday afternoon on the Gulf waters. Showers and thunderstorms will increase along the Lower Texas Coast and the Gulf waters tonight through mid to late week. Conditions may be conducive for waterspouts over the next few days, especially near the edges of heavy showers. Conditions improve briefly early next this week before becoming adverse once again mid to late week. Additional Small Craft Advisories may be needed Wednesday through Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 91 80 90 79 / 60 60 60 80 HARLINGEN 91 78 90 76 / 70 50 60 90 MCALLEN 93 79 91 78 / 60 50 70 90 RIO GRANDE CITY 94 78 91 75 / 60 40 70 90 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 82 87 82 / 50 60 50 80 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 90 80 89 79 / 60 60 50 80

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ150-155- 170-175.