textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1006 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Key Messages:

* Showers and thunderstorms are possible again Sunday night through Monday morning along a cold front.

* There is a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday night through Monday morning.

* Mainly dry weather with warm temperatures will prevail through next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1006 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

The main weather concern through the forecast period or through next week will be the chance for another round of showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday morning. Forecast models and ensembles continue to depict a cold front sweeping through all of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Sunday night into Monday morning. This cold front combined with a strong mid-level shortwave trough and elevated atmospheric moisture content will yield increased chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday morning.

Some of these thunderstorms could become strong to severe with the primary threats being damaging winds, large hail, along with heavy rainfall that could result in localized flooding. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the entire area under a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday.

Outside of the chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday, expect for rain-free weather conditions to prevail through next week.

Temperatures are expected to run normal to warmer than normal through the period. High temperatures will range from the upper 80s to the mid 90s with the hottest temperatures west of IH-69C. Overnight low temperatures will mainly be in the 70s through the forecast period.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Through 00z Monday....VFR conditions this evening will give way to MVFR cigs/vsbys tonight into Sunday morning. The combination of light winds and high low level moisture will result in MVFR low stratus and mist. Mist is especially possible over HRL and MFE after this morning's rainfall. Flying conditions should gradually return to VFR by Sunday afternoon.

East-northeast winds 5-15 kts this evening will trend towards light and variable to calm tonight. Light and variable to calm winds tonight will pick up out of the southeast on Sunday with speeds between 5-10 kts.

MARINE

Issued at 1006 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Favorable marine conditions will prevail through next week with light to moderate winds and seas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 78 91 78 87 / 10 10 40 30 HARLINGEN 74 91 75 86 / 0 20 40 20 MCALLEN 77 93 76 87 / 0 20 40 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 75 93 75 87 / 0 20 50 30 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 84 78 82 / 10 0 40 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 89 77 85 / 10 10 40 20

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.