textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 539 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Key Messages

- Breezy to windy southeasterly winds are expected each afternoon today through Friday with gusts up to 35 mph, or higher, possible along/east of US-281.

- Elevated fire weather conditions continue each afternoon today through Friday with Fire Danger Statements possible across portions of the Brush Country and the Upper RGV tomorrow, Thursday and Friday.

- There is currently a low to medium (20-40%) chance of rain Saturday afternoon into Sunday, with the higher chances west of US-281.

- Temperatures remain 10-15 degrees above average, maximizing in the 80s/90s and minimizing in the 60s/70s.

- A medium risk of rip currents continues through tomorrow afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1117 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Breezy to windy conditions continue across Deep South Texas for much of the upcoming forecast, into the beginning of next week, as a pressure gradient tightens in response from low pressure systems developing in association with mid/upper level troughs passing over the Central and Southern Plains today into tomorrow and again on Friday. Southeasterly winds of around 15-20 mph are expected across the region, gusting up to around 25 mph along/west of US-281 to as much as 35 mph, or higher, for locations further east during the afternoon hours each day today through Friday. Winds remain breezy overnight with gusts up to 25 mph possible. Despite borderline relative humidity values, there is an enhanced risk for fire weather conditions each afternoon through Friday as 20 foot winds and gusts maximize, with the greatest concerns across the Rio Grande Plains, western portions of the Brush Country (Jim Hogg and Brooks counties) and the Upper RGV, where relative humidity values fall to near 30-35%. Increased relative humidity values and slightly lighter winds avoid Fire Danger Statements (RFD) across these areas this afternoon, but are possible Wednesday, Thursday and Friday afternoon as gusty winds become more widespread. Yet, the rest of our County Warning Area is also highly urged to refrain from outdoor burning as gusty winds can easily spread any wildfire that catches due to abundant cured fuels within a moderate to exceptional drought.

On a more positive note, as troughing aloft persists, there is some potential for rain. The first opportunity is tomorrow morning when slight forcing aloft could lead to a low (15-20%) chance of an isolated and brief light shower or two across the eastern portions of the Northern Ranchlands, from US-281 to the coast. Though, not expecting anything more than a trace at this time. The better chance for rain looks to be Saturday afternoon into Sunday as moisture pooling and lift associated with a stalling frontal boundary combined with forcing of a passing shortwave lead to as much as a low to medium (20-60%) chance of rain, with the higher chance of rain west of US-281. Yet, confidence is medium at best as the phasing and timing of this potential setup could change as the weekend approaches. Either way, there is higher confidence that increased lower level moisture and lighter winds should limit fire weather concerns.

Following, ridging builds Sunday into the beginning of next week as a mid-level high pressure builds over Mexico, diminishing chances of rain along with breezy conditions returning. Yet, should rain occur this weekend, relative humidity may further limit fire weather conditions. Otherwise, temperatures remain 10-15 degrees above average, reaching the upper 80s along/east of 1-69 E, lower/mid 90s further west and mid 70s along the Gulf Coast. Overnight temperatures fall to the 60s and lower 70s across southern portions of the RGV.

A medium risk of rip currents continues through tomorrow afternoon.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 539 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

MVFR to VFR will prevail at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Diminishing winds overnight will increase on Wednesday. Mostly cloudy skies are also anticipated.

MARINE

Issued at 1117 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Moderate to fresh southeasterly winds and moderate (4-6 feet) seas continue through Friday, with Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions likely each afternoon across the Laguna Madre and Nearshore (0-20 NM) Gulf Waters as a locally enhanced pressure gradient tightens. There is a low (15-20%) chance of light rain tomorrow morning and a low to medium (20-40%) chance of rain Saturday into Sunday. Moderate southeasterly winds and moderate seas continue over the weekend and into next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 71 86 70 85 / 0 10 10 0 HARLINGEN 68 89 68 88 / 0 10 10 0 MCALLEN 73 92 72 92 / 0 10 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 70 94 70 93 / 10 10 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 71 78 71 78 / 0 10 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 84 68 84 / 0 10 10 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.