textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 528 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

- Keeping an eye on potential for erratic growth of wildfire this afternoon, especially along and west of IH-69C/US 281 where cured fuels intersect gusty south winds, humidity around 30 percent, and extreme drought

- May-like high temperatures and rain-free conditions are expected to continue through Saturday, especially from McAllen to Falfurrias and points west. - Weekend cold front will drop temperatures to seasonal averages, with gusty north wind and low humidity returning a potential wildfire spread threat. Roughening seas and strong winds are expected over the Gulf waters, making boating/fishing difficult.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1029 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

The subtropical ridge generally holds through the remainder of the week, maintaining above normal temperatures and dry weather through Friday. In fact, this week looks very similar to last week. The next system aloft swings into the Southern Plains Friday night into Saturday, as a frontal boundary at the surface drops south through Deep South Texas, bringing slightly cooler temperatures but little to no chance of rain. The NBM cooks the upper to mid valley on Thursday and Friday into the mid 90s and brings near normal highs Sunday into Monday behind the front, with near to below normal lows Monday and Tuesday morning.

Unfortunately, a similar week to last week, on top of abundant cured fuels and ongoing moderate to extreme drought conditions will drive worsening drought conditions into the peak of the dormant fire weather season. Expect RH values generally below 25-35 percent across all or portions of Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, Starr, and Hidalgo counties every afternoon, dropping another 5-10 percent further Saturday through Monday. Gusty afternoon winds are expected Tuesday and Wednesday, mainly along the coast and into the mid valley, where RH values are higher. Extreme caution should be urged when working near any open flames or sparks into late February.

Patchy fog is possible again overnight tonight, mainly along the coastal counties and northern ranchlands. An inviting beach and beautiful beach weather will also pose an increased threat of life-threatening rip currents mid to late week, and especially over the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 528 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Low level south-southeast flow is picking up this morning across the Valley terminals, if the incoming Brownsville sounding is any indication. This has brought surface winds up over 5 knots and precluded any fog, but patchy MVFR ceilings have been in and out at Brownsville and Harlingen, so have kept this going through mid morning.

By 8 or 9 AM, the 25 knot winds roughly 1000 feet off the deck should begin mixing down, and expect peak mixing to begin around noon (18Z). So...have gusts over 20 knots by mid morning and just under 30 knots from noon until sunset this evening under little more than passing cirrus. Overnight, enough mixing of 20+ knot winds should keep surface winds at 10 knots or higher, precluding any fog. That said, increasing dewpoints will support development of MVFR stratocumulus toward daybreak, so added a TEMPO group to all terminals for such after 08/09Z.

MARINE

Issued at 1029 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Southeasterly winds continue through the end of the week with afternoon gusts driving SCEC to borderline SCA conditions across the bay and offshore waters. A cold front arrives on Saturday with northerly winds and elevated seas into Monday. Southerly winds return next Tuesday with improving marine conditions.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 528 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

It's a really tight call as to whether to pull the trigger on a Fire Danger Statement for Brooks, Hidalgo, Starr, and Jim Hogg. Blended forecast winds fall just shy of the 15-20 mph and gusty requirements with humidity forecast to range from the upper 20s to lower 30s. However, trusted deterministic guidance, along with healthy ~25 knot winds off the deck in the lower Valley with guidance suggesting at least 20 knots to continue up to 850 mb through 3 PM - as well as a favorable atmosphere for "dry" mixing of said winds - make the case for a decent period of 15-20+ mph winds in these areas. Zapata typically falls short, and would therefore keep them out of the statement at this point.

Given the steadily worsening drought - now at Extreme (level 3 of 4) in nearly all of these areas - the favorable heat (90+ degrees), and some small fire starts on Monday in southern Hidalgo, will go ahead and issue a Fire Danger Statement (RFD) for these areas. Humidity should be just high enough for the coastal counties...but winds will also be 3-5 knots higher as well. Fuels are (still) plenty cured in all areas, so this is not an issue.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 82 65 84 68 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 86 61 86 64 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 89 65 91 66 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 92 61 91 64 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 67 76 68 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 81 63 83 65 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.