textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 444 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

* A cold front late tonight/early tomorrow will bring temperatures to normal to slightly cooler than normal levels Wednesday through Thursday night (a freeze is not anticipated).

* Relative Humidity is expected to drop below 25% for the Northwest Ranchlands following the frontal passage. While winds are not expected to be high enough for any Fire Danger Statements, outdoor burning is still not recommended.

* Temperatures begin to rebound on Friday with warmer than normal temperatures developing over the weekend through early next week.

* Adverse to hazardous coastal/marine conditions will persist through at least Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1115 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

A dry cold front is expected to pass through Deep South Texas overnight as an upper level trough treks across the northeast CONUS. This cold front is expected to drop daytime highs from the mid-80s today back down to the mid-70s tomorrow. Nighttime lows will cool from the mid-50s to the lower 40s/upper 30s by tomorrow night. The shallow, cooler air is supposed to stay in place for a few days before ridging takes hold over the area, causing a warming trend to begin on Friday. Highs will be back in the 80s for the weekend and continue through next week. Lows will warm back into the 50s by the weekend as well. Precipitation chances all week are expected to remain below 10 percent as ridging takes hold over the area.

Following the frontal passage, humidities in the Western Ranchlands are expected to drop below 25 percent tomorrow. At this time, accompanying 20-foot winds are not expected to be high enough to reach fire statement criteria. However, it should be noted that fires tomorrow and Thursday (particularly in Zapata, Jim Hogg, and Starr Counties) will catch very easily with these low humidities and freeze-cured fuels. Outdoor burning is not recommended due to the dry conditions. We will continue to monitor.

In addition, there is a moderate risk of life-treatening rip currents at area beaches tonight and tomorrow.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 444 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Through 00z Thursday.....VFR conditions will by and large prevail through the 00z TAF cycle. There could be a few MVFR clouds around from time to time, especially tonight into Wednesday morning, ahead of a cold front.

South-southeasterly winds 10-20 kts with gusts as high as 25 kts or so will weaken later this evening/tonight to speeds between 5-10 kts. Following the cold fropa, winds Wednesday morning are expected to shift out of the north-northwest with speeds between 5-10 kts. Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, these winds are expected to strengthen with gusts as high as 25 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 78 58 74 51 / 0 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 81 54 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 85 58 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 83 54 76 45 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 71 60 68 56 / 0 0 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 56 71 51 / 0 0 10 0

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 58 74 49 69 / 0 10 0 0 HARLINGEN 54 72 43 69 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 58 75 47 72 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 54 75 42 72 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 60 68 57 63 / 0 10 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 56 71 50 66 / 0 10 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ451-454- 455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ150-155- 170-175.