textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 504 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Key Messages

- Patchy fog is possible tomorrow morning.

- A Fire Danger Statement remains in effect until 6 PM this evening for inland Cameron, Willacy, and Kenedy Counties. Fire danger is then expected to decrease tonight into tomorrow as winds calm and relative humidities increase.

- There is a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents at area beaches tonight and tomorrow.

- Unseasonably warm and dry weather is expected through at least the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1109 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Following today's record-breaking heat associated with an afternoon dryline, a weak surface low is expected to trek across Deep South Texas overnight into Friday, which isn't expected to bring any precipitation to the area, but will shift winds to a northerly direction for Friday and cool daytime high temperatures about five degrees. Despite slightly cooler temperatures, high temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal averages in the upper 80s/lower 90s for the next several days as upper level ridging remains dominant over the Sonoran Desert. Precipitation chances should remain minimal throughout next week.

Patchy fog could develop in some areas tonight, as skies will be relatively clear and winds calm. Fire danger is expected to decrease tonight into tomorrow as minimum relative humidities increase with the calming winds. However, fuels still remain freeze- cured and are still very dry due to ongoing drought in the area, which means they could still catch easily. Calmer winds will help mitigate any erratic spread.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents at area beaches tonight into tomorrow. There is also a strong longshore current associated with southerly coastal winds that is expected to last through this evening. This should improve tomorrow as the wind direction changes to the northeast.

Skies are expected to be mostly sunny to partly cloudy with high UV indices through the weekend. Those spending time outdoors at local festivals will want to wear sun protection.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 504 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Light to calm winds and increased relative humidity are expected to result in low level ceilings by the pre-dawn hours tonight, ranging from IFR (ceilings as low at around 500 ft) at KMFE to LIFR at KHRL and KBRO (ceilings around 400 ft). Light north/northeasterly winds slow pick up throughout the day Friday, with ceilings gradually improving ceilings to VFR in the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1109 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

SCEC conditions are possible through this evening, but conditions are expected to improve tonight into tomorrow and remain favorable throughout at least the middle of next week. SCEC conditions are possible again Wednesday into Thursday as a pressure gradient tightens over the region and wind speeds pick up. Winds will be northeasterly tomorrow, and veer back to the east-southeast by Saturday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 67 84 65 84 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 62 84 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 67 89 65 90 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 62 91 62 91 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 67 76 67 76 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 64 81 63 81 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ451-454- 455.

GM...None.