textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1244 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Key Messages:

* Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop off the Sierra Madre this evening. Some of this could make its way into Deep South Texas, especially the Western counties. A few storms could be strong.

* Rain chances continue into Friday and Saturday, before conditions dry up Saturday and remain rain-free throughout next week.

* A medium risk of rip currents continues through tomorrow afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

A cold front is moving through Deep South Texas and is expected to pass completely through the region by this afternoon, which will keep high temperatures in the low 80s for today. This front is expected to stall just to our south sometime later today, and there may be some post-frontal showers as cloud ceilings lower. In addition, CAMs seem to agree that some convection will initiate off the Mexican Sierra Madres late afternoon/early evening. While much of this convection may remain in Mexico, some may possibly move into the Western portion of the CWA late this evening and into the overnight hours.

At this time, the Storm Prediction Center has all of Deep South Texas under a general risk for thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Some of these storms could be strong, with wind, hail, and heavy rain being the main threats. Precipitation chances begin to creep up between 0z and 06z tonight, where some areas in Starr and Western Hidalgo Counties will have rain chances as high as 60-70%. Areas further north and east will see low to moderate chances between 20- 40% overnight, with the lowest chances closest to the coast in the Lower Rio Grande Valley.

However, rain chances are expected to become more widespread tomorrow evening as the stalled frontal boundary just to our south retreats back north over the region, bringing the moist warmer sector back over Deep South Texas and creating an area of convergence that will enhance precipitation potential. Friday's morning and afternoon rain chances will be low to moderate (20-30%) as the front remains south of our area, but as it retreats further north, PoPs will increase to 60-70% for the Western Ranchland areas (as more showers and thunderstorms are expected to initiate off the Sierra Madres Friday evening) and 20-50% for the Central and Coastal areas of Deep South Texas. The Weather Prediction Center has kept portions of Starr, Zapata, Jim Hogg, Brooks, and a small northwesterly sliver of Kenedy Counties in an excessive rainfall outlook for Friday. Due to a lack of mid to upper level steering flow, showers and thunderstorms could be slower moving and isolated flash flooding is possible in areas that receive heavier rainfall amounts.

Overall, most of the rain received over the next few days is expected to be beneficial. Most areas should receive between 0.5 and 1.5 inches. However, some areas could see amounts as high as 3 inches where locally heavier rainfall occurs, and other areas could see only a trace amount.

Conditions should dry out by Saturday evening as the front lifts out of the area and dissipates. High pressure should settle into the area behind the front keeping conditions seasonal and dry for the remainder of the week. Some guidance has hinted at another frontal system early next week, but it is expected to be weak and dry, not having much impact on temperatures or rain chances.

A moderate risk for life-threatening rip currents continues at local area beaches.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Following the frontal passage, ceilings have dropped to MVFR and IFR and are expected to remain this way through most of the TAF period. Light to moderate northerly winds are expected, shifting back to southeasterly tomorrow as the front stalls and retreats back northward.

MARINE

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Some SCEC conditions are possible this afternoon, especially on the Northern Gulf waters and Bay but should improve tonight (excepting in the immediate vicinity of areas of any showers or thunderstorms that happen to form offshore). Conditions should then remain favorable over the next several days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 78 90 77 90 / 20 10 10 30 HARLINGEN 74 91 74 90 / 30 20 20 40 MCALLEN 75 92 76 92 / 50 30 40 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 73 90 74 90 / 70 20 60 30 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 83 78 83 / 10 10 10 30 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 89 76 88 / 20 10 10 30

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.