textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 525 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Key Messages

- Although limited, there is some fire weather concerns across the Middle/Upper Rio Grande Valley and the Brush Country beginning this Saturday, as breezy and gusty southeasterly winds return.

- The greatest fire weather concern is from next Monday or Tuesday into the later parts of next week as winds enhance further.

- Temperatures remain above average, maximizing in the upper 80s and low/mid 90s during the day, falling to the 60s overnight.

- A Medium Risk of rip currents continues through Friday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1024 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Mid/upper level ridging continues over Deep South Texas into next Tuesday as a high pressure aloft remains over the Baja Peninsula through this weekend before slowly moving eastward across northern Mexico and our region into the early parts of next week. Troughing follows into Wednesday and onward, but at this time, dry weather is expected to continue. In the meantime, a weak cold front drifts southward through our region tonight, shifting winds to northeasterly by Friday morning, becoming easterly by Friday evening, remaining light. Southeasterly winds return by Saturday morning as a surface high pressure regains control over the region, moving into the Mid-Atlantic. A developing low pressure system over the Southern Plains leads to a tightening pressure gradient over the weekend, resulting in breezy conditions each afternoon, particularly along/east of US-281, where gusts up to around 20-25 mph are anticipated Saturday into Monday as the system lifts northeastward. Temperatures remain above average through next Thursday, rising from the 80s on Friday to the mid/upper 80s near/east of US-281 and low/mid 90s further west by Saturday while temperatures rise to the low/mid 70s along the immediate Lower Texas Coast. Overnight lows remain above average as well, falling to the 60s.

As breezy and gusty southeasterly winds return by Saturday, there is some concern for fire weather conditions each day into next week, particularly during the afternoon hours across the Brush Country as well as the Middle and Upper Rio Grande Valley, where minimum relative humidity values decrease to as low as around 30-35 percent for several hours. However, 20 foot winds are anticipated to remain just shy of Fire Danger Statements (RFDs) until next Monday or Tuesday, when another low pressure system over the Central Plains leads to 20 foot winds in excess of 15 mph and gusts up to 25-30 mph, or greater, during the afternoon hours. Regardless, it is highly urged to refrain from outdoor burning and be very cautious of flames as freeze-cured fuels remain abundant within our drought- stricken region.

A Medium Risk of rip currents continues through Friday afternoon.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

MVFR to brief IFR conditions are expected early this morning prior to a weak frontal boundary working south. VFR conditions are likely by this afternoon with clearing skies into tonight. Fog development late Friday night into Saturday morning will continue to be monitored for any potential Dense Fog Advisories, AWWs, or LIFR conditions.

MARINE

Issued at 1024 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Winds become light and northeasterly tonight as a weak cold front passes through, allowing for seas to become slight (1-2 feet) overnight Friday. There is a low (20-30%) chance of brief light rain Friday morning. Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds and slight to moderate (2-3 feet) seas return by Saturday afternoon. Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are possible by the middle of next week as a tightening pressure gradient leads to moderate to fresh southeasterly winds and moderate (3-5 feet) seas. Troughing near the coast may lead to a low (20-30%) chance of rain Tuesday into Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 83 65 83 66 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 84 60 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 88 65 91 66 / 10 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 88 63 90 64 / 10 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 75 67 75 68 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 80 63 80 64 / 10 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.