textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1033 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Key Messages:

* Rain-free weather conditions with warmer than normal temperatures can be expected through next weekend.

* Heat Risk could begin building next weekend into the early parts of next week; widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) Heat Risk with pockets of Extreme (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk is forecasted.

* There is a low-medium (20-40%) chance for showers and thunderstorms developing next week (Monday through Wednesday).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1033 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Rain-free weather conditions along with warmer than normal temps can be expected through at least next weekend with high pressure in control, frontal boundaries well to our north, and a 588-591 dam heat ridge in place over Deep South Texas. We'll have to keep an eye out for next week and the potential for the weather pattern to become a bit more unsettled.

Multiple forecast and AI/ML models/ensembles are suggesting an increase in showers and thunderstorms next week in association with an approaching or nearby frontal system. Currently, we have low-medium (20-40%) chances for showers and thunderstorms in the Monday through Wednesday timeframe. Again, we will continue to monitor the trends on the chance for the pattern becoming a bit more unsettled next week. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has outlooked much of Texas including all of Deep South Texas under a medium (50-60%) chance for a wetter than normal pattern in it's 6-10 day outlook which covers May 17-21.

As mentioned earlier, temperatures will rune warmer than normal through the forecast period. High temperatures will generally range between the upper 80s to mid 90s across Deep South Texas. There could be a few upper 90s across the far western sections of our CWA (i.e. Zapata and Starr Counties). Overnight low temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s tonight through Thursday night before climbing into the mid 70s to lower 80s Friday night through next Tuesday night.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 535 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Through 00z Wednesday....VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the entire 00z TAF cycle.

North-northeast winds 10-15 kts gusting 20-25 kts this evening will weaken with speeds between 5-10 kts out of the north, if not become light and variable. North-northeast winds 5-10 kts will persist through the day on Tuesday.

MARINE

Issued at 1033 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Generally favorable marine conditions will prevail through next weekend with low to moderate winds and seas. Moderate seas could begin developing Friday night through the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 73 87 70 89 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 69 86 66 88 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 72 88 70 90 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 71 88 69 91 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 76 81 75 82 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 73 84 70 86 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.