textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1204 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

* Hot conditions continue through this week with a Moderate Heat Risk (level 2 of 4) each day. Heat indices will be between 100 and 110 degrees each day.

* Virtually rain free conditions are expected over the next few days, though precipitation chances will increase mid to late week.

* There is generally a Low Risk of rip currents at area beaches likely increasing to moderate late this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1204 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Hot and mostly rain-free conditions will continue into midweek with upper level high pressure over the Four Corners into West Texas in control. Temperatures will remain hot with highs in the mid to upper 90s, and some triple digits in the mid to upper Valley/Rio Grande Plains. Heat indices will generally remain between 100 and 110 degrees with a Moderate Heat Risk for most locations, especially as we get later into the week. Rain chances remain generally under 10% through midweek.

The high pressure will retreat slightly westward mid to late week with an area of weak low pressure/troughing in the Bay of Campeche into Mexico. This will allow for an influx of tropical moisture and increase chances of showers/thunderstorms mid to late week into the weekend. With high PWAT values (over 2 inches) some of this activity could produce heavy rainfall.

There is a low risk of rip currents at area beaches though will likely increase to moderate by this weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Moderate southeasterly winds will gust between 20 and 25 kts through this afternoon. Winds will decrease later this evening.

MARINE

Issued at 1204 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Favorable marine conditons will prevail on the waters off the lower Texas coast. Generally seas of 2-4 feet are expected with 4 to 6 second periods. Isolated showers or thunderstorms could lead to locally higher winds and seas, best chance of this activity will be late week into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 80 95 79 94 / 0 10 10 10 HARLINGEN 77 96 76 96 / 0 10 0 10 MCALLEN 79 100 79 100 / 0 10 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 100 77 101 / 10 10 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 88 81 88 / 0 10 0 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 93 78 92 / 0 10 0 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.