textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 623 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

- A cold front Friday will bring strong winds, cooler temperatures, and coastal hazards Friday and Saturday.

- A Gale Watch is in effect for 1 PM Friday to 1 PM Saturday.

- Low to moderate rain chances Friday along a passing cold front, with greatest chances (40-50%) along the immediate coast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

More warm, dry conditions are expected today as subsidence promotes drier air across deep S TX. This will suppress rain chances and keep heat indices in the 90s to low 100s. A cold front moving through the region Friday will limit Friday highs to the 80s.

The forecast has been trending drier given the relatively dry air ahead of the front, with most places expected to see low rain chances (15-35%) Friday and little to no measurable rain. The greatest rain chances (40-50%) are along the immediate coast, with rainfall totals through Sunday of an inch or less expected.

Strong northerly winds will develop behind the front, with gusts of 30-35 mph possible by Friday afternoon. A secondary surge of high pressure behind the front will bring potential for stronger winds overnight Friday, with gusts of 45-50+ mph possible. Wind Advisories will likely be needed along the immediate coast late Friday into Saturday, and are possible as far inland as Brooks and Hidalgo counties. There is a 10-20% chance of wind gusts of 55mph or greater east of US-281 during this period. Be sure to secure any decorations or loose objects outdoors before Friday.

Much drier air filtering in behind the front may lead to elevated fire weather concerns Friday afternoon and Saturday. The strongest winds should begin diminishing before the driest conditions arrive Saturday afternoon, when RH values could fall to 20-40%. However, strong winds overnight Friday combined with RH values in the 30-40% range could require a Rangeland Fire Discussion for counties along and east of US-281.

Strong northerly winds over the Gulf will build seas and increase the risk of life-threatening rip currents, high surf, and coastal flooding along the lower TX coast. Cooler air behind the front will bring highs in the 70s Saturday and overnight lows in the 50s and 60s. Temperatures begin rebounding Sunday with highs in the 80s, gradually climbing into the 90s by midweek. Rain chances may also begin to increase again midweek.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to continue through the period. Southeasterly winds are forecast to increase to 10-15 knots this afternoon, before becoming light and variable overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 1100 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Moderate southeasterly flow and moderate seas 3-5 ft will continue today. Winds shift northerly Friday morning as a cold front passes, increasing winds to 20 knots by late morning with gusts of 30-35 knots. Seas increase to 9-12 feet late Friday, with gustier winds 40 kts or greater possible overnight. A Gale Watch is in effect for 1 PM Friday to 1 PM Saturday. There are increased chances (40-70%) of showers and thunderstorms along the front Friday, with low chances in the offshore waters lingering into Saturday. Gale conditions should lessen Saturday afternoon, with Advisory conditions lasting into Saturday night.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 90 74 88 63 / 10 10 30 0 HARLINGEN 93 71 89 59 / 0 10 20 0 MCALLEN 96 75 90 61 / 0 0 20 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 95 72 88 59 / 0 0 20 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 86 78 84 67 / 0 10 50 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 88 74 85 62 / 0 10 40 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.