textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

* Isolated showers may stream onshore from the Gulf into early Thursday.

* Hot and rain-free conditions expected this weekend into next week, with Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk increasing to Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk for the Lower Rio Grande Valley by the end of the weekend. * There is a Moderate Risk of life-threatning rip currents at area beaches expected through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1039 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

High pressure gradually builds back across the Gulf, cutting rain chances by this weekend into next week and turning up the heat. Daily surges of moisture, with PWAT values near 1.9 inches, still keep a low chance, less than 20 percent, of streamer showers along the coast Thursday morning and a very low chance, less than 10 percent, for a shower along the sea breeze Thursday afternoon. By Friday, those chances drop even further, falling to near zero over the weekend.

Of more concern, those daily surges of moisture add to a new round of above normal temperatures, increasing the threat for heat- related issues this weekend into next week. High temperatures may top 100 for many locations by next week, nearing record highs by mid-week. A Moderate (level 2 of 4) Heat Risk can be expected every day across Deep South Texas Thursday through next Wednesday, with pockets of Major (level 3 of 4) Heat Risk in portions of the Rio Grande Valley beginning Friday.

Along the coast, long period swell may continue a moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents into the weekend, with conditions overall becoming more favorable as high pressure builds and astronomical tides subside through the period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Favorable aviation conditions are forecast through the next 24 hours, with VFR in place. Breezy winds during the daylight hours will diminish to moderate levels for the nighttime. Mostly clear to partly cloudy, rain-free skies are also anticipated.

MARINE

Issued at 1039 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds continue across the coastal waters through the forecast period with high pressure building across the Gulf. Seas of 2 to 4 feet are expected with a long period swell through the remainder of this week. Generally favorable marine conditions likely return this weekend into next week. Afternoon winds will drive a periodic chop on the bay with potentially a daily Small Craft Caution.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 94 81 95 80 / 10 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 95 78 96 78 / 10 0 0 0 MCALLEN 99 80 100 80 / 10 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 99 79 100 78 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 81 88 81 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 80 93 79 / 10 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.