textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 521 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

- Windy conditions are expected Thursday morning, mainly along and east of US 281/I-69 C, where gusts up to 35-40 mph are possible, especially across the Lower RGV.

- Well above average temperatures continue Thursday into Friday with near record to record-breaking high temperatures possible.

- Cold arrives Friday afternoon and evening with breezy northerly winds expected on Saturday and low (15-30%) chance of rain late Friday night into Sunday.

- Crashing relative humidity and increased winds behind the front may lead to fire concerns over the weekend, especially on Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1031 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

Overnight tonight into Thursday, a strong mid-level shortwave ejects northeastward from northern Mexico into northern/western portions of Texas, passing well north of Deep South Texas Thursday morning. However, in response, a lower level (925 mb) southerly jet over the region is progged to increase speeds late tonight, strengthening to as much as 50 knots over the region for a couple of hours Thursday morning following sunrise. This, in combination with a continued tightened pressure gradient, is likely to lead to southerly winds of 20-25 mph (25-30 mph at the coast), gusting to 30-40 mph, mainly east of US 281/I-69 C, possibly even higher for inland portions of the Lower RGV. Although these speeds could fit Wind Advisory criteria, have held off on issuing now due to the low confidence, brief duration and limited geographical extent of the strongest winds. Fortunately, as the shortwave quickly continues northeastward, winds are expected to diminish throughout the afternoon and evening hours, though gusts up to 20-25 mph remain possible into the early nighttime hours.

Meanwhile, a cold front attached to the associated surface low pressure over the Plains is expected to move into the County Warning Area (CWA) Friday afternoon and evening hours, shifting light/gentle southerly winds to northerly. Overnight Friday or early Saturday morning, as the main trough behind the shortwave moves north of the region, a surface high pressure builds over the Southern Plains as a strong upstream ridge arrives over the Rockies, sending a surge of high pressure to the region, which could lead to a low to medium (20-40%) chance of rain closer to the coast with another round of gusty winds likely on Saturday. Additionally, troughing behind the front could result in a low (15-30%) chance of rain during the day Saturday lingering into Sunday. Despite cloud cover and a low chance of rain, low humidity and increased winds behind the front could lead to a Fire Danger Statement for portions of the region over the weekend, especially on Saturday.

Overnight lows in the 60s are likely tonight and Thursday night, rising to near record or record-breaking highs in the mid/upper 80s on Thursday and Friday ahead of the front, even lower 90s on along and west of US 281/I-69 C on Thursday. In wake of the front, lows in the 50s Friday night decrease to mainly 40s through the weekend and into the middle of next week as surface high over the Southern Plains maintains northerly to northeasterly winds. Highs in the 60s/70s on Saturday become mostly 60s/below average Sunday through Monday, possibly rising to the 70s by the middle of next week.

A moderate risk of rip currents overnight tonight increases to a high risk Thursday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 521 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

MVFR to VFR is anticipated at the aerodromes through the next 24 hours. Windy conditions will develop today before winds diminish this evening and overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 1031 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

Moderate to fresh south-southeasterly winds and moderate (4-6 feet) seas overnight increase to strong with 5-7 foot seas Thursday morning due to a tightened pressure gradient over the Lower Texas coastal waters. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect until 6 PM Thursday. Although winds diminish throughout Thursday afternoon and evening down to gentle to moderate by late Thursday night, moderate (3-5 feet) seas continue. A cold front passes through Friday evening into Friday night, with adverse marine conditions leading to another round of SCA as northerly winds increase to strong or near gale with moderate to rough (6-9 feet) seas possible on Saturday. Gradual improvement is expected into Sunday and Monday of next week. Probabilities of rain increase to a low (15-30%) chance on Friday, increasing to a low to medium (40-60%) chance along the front Friday night, followed by a low to medium (30-40%) chance on Saturday as troughing continues behind the front, with chances gradually dropping off into Sunday and Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 85 69 86 62 / 0 0 0 30 HARLINGEN 87 67 88 57 / 0 0 0 20 MCALLEN 90 69 89 60 / 0 0 0 20 RIO GRANDE CITY 90 64 88 56 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 72 79 63 / 0 0 0 40 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 84 68 85 59 / 0 0 0 30

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through Friday afternoon for TXZ451-454- 455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ130-132- 135-150-155-170-175.