textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 506 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

* Mainly normal to cooler than normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions are expected through next week.

* Improving, yet still adverse marine and beach conditions will continue through Monday.

* A pair of cold fronts arrive by mid week and again late this week into next weekend; Additional adverse to hazardous marine, beach, and fire weather conditions are possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 947 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Supported by a 1032-1036 mb modified Canadian sfc high pressure system overhead, a full dry and cool air advection (CAA) regime is in place over the region. Normal to cooler than normal temps will continue through Tuesday with mainly rain-free weather conditions continuing. There could be a passing shower or two Monday PM. Monday and Tuesday, high temperatures will mostly be in the 60s across the region with overnight low temperatures tonight through Tuesday night mainly in the 40s.

A major large-scale weather pattern change is expected to take place midweek next week. The 500 mb pattern is expected to become highly amplified and will feature a dipole type pattern (warm/hot West U.S. vs. a cool/cold East U.S. alignment) with anomalously strong ridging over the eastern Pacific Ocean into western Canada/U.S. and anomalously strong troughing downstream over central and eastern U.S. This pattern coincides with a negative Eastern Pacific Oscillation/-EPO, a positive Pacific North America Oscillation/+PNA, and a negative Arctic Oscillation/-AO as models suggest. That said, mid next week to next weekend, a couple of cool/cold fronts are expected to sweep through the region.

Ahead of the first cool front and still under a northwest flow regime at the sfc and aloft, Wednesday will be one of the warmer days of the forecast period thanks to a bit more sunlight/incoming solar radiation compared to prior days. High temperatures will top out in the mid to upper 70s across Deep South Texas, some ~5-10F degrees above normal. The dry continental cool front is expected to pass through the region Wednesday night into Thursday. This will result in slightly cooler temperatures on Thursday with highs returning to near seasonable levels (lower 70s).

High temperatures rebound on Friday as a return flow develops out of the south. High temperatures are expected to top out in the mid 70s to near 80F degrees along the RGV.

Friday night into next Saturday, medium range forecast models and ensembles continue to advertise a stronger cold front that is expected to sweep through the region. This cold front will bring a notable airmass change along with the potential for increased marine/coastal hazards. Additionally, this cold front could result in increased rain chances on Saturday due to increased sfc convergence and instability associated with the frontal boundary. Cooler than normal temperatures are expected next Saturday and Sunday in response to the cold fropa and 1028 mb continental sfc high pressure system in place.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 506 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with light northerly winds.

MARINE

Issued at 947 PM CST Sun Jan 11 2026

Small Craft Exercise Caution (SCEC) conditions tonight will persist into Monday over the Laguna Madre and Gulf Waters as winds relax. By Monday night/Tuesday, favorable marine conditions return and will persist through Wednesday with low to moderate winds and seas.

Wednesday night into Thursday, marine conditons could become adverse (SCEC-like) due to the passage of a weak cool front. A brief period of favorable marine conditions could return Thursday night through Friday. However, hazardous marine conditions could return again over next weekend in association with a stronger cold front.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 69 53 69 52 / 10 20 10 10 HARLINGEN 68 49 68 49 / 10 20 10 10 MCALLEN 69 51 68 51 / 10 20 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 68 46 67 45 / 10 30 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 67 61 66 59 / 10 20 10 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 69 54 69 51 / 10 20 10 10

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...None.