textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1044 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

* Patchy mist or fog is possible ahead of a cold front tonight.

* Strong north-northwest winds 15-30 mph with higher gusts are expected to develop on Saturday behind the cold front.

* Gusty winds will result in hazardous marine and beach conditions on Saturday and extending into Sunday.

* Noticeably cooler and drier air will build into the region on Saturday with normal to cooler than normal temperatures persisting through the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1044 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Big changes to the weather pattern are expected to take place within the next 12 hours. Through tonight and ahead of a cold front, some patchy mist or fog is possible as winds lighten up and moisture content remains elevated. The latest sfc observations and analysis shows the cold front over Zapata County. Based off obs and forecast model trends, expect for the cold front to continue to advance southeastward through Deep South Texas tonight, likely passing through the Rio Grande Valley around or just after daybreak on Saturday.

This cold front will be accompanied by showers and maybe even some storms ahead of the front overnight tonight into Saturday morning. Currently, we have a low-medium (20-60%) chance for showers and storms developing tonight into Saturday morning with the highest chances being located over the southeastern quadrant of the region (i.e. Cameron, Willacy Counties and beaches adjacent). Some lingering showers (20-30% chances) are possible during the day on Saturday behind the frontal passage.

Following the cold fropa, it will become windy on Saturday with north-northwest winds 15-30 mph gusting as high as 40 mph. These winds will result in increased dry and cold air advection (CAA) over the region. That said, temperatures will top out in the 70s before falling throughout the day. These winds will also result in hazardous marine conditions developing on Saturday (see MARINE SECTION for more details).

Additionally, the combination of building seas and increasing winds will result in adverse beach conditions. A high risk of rip currents will likely continue through the weekend. Additionally, minor coastal flooding cannot be ruled out, especially near high tide and along narrow beaches. This may result in Coastal Flood Statement or Advisory over the weekend.

Normal to cooler than normal temperatures will prevail through the remainder of the forecast period. High temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s. Overnight low temperatures will mainly be in the 40s through the forecast period with a few 50s possible along the mid to lower RGV and SPI.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1044 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Through 06z Sunday....Deteriorating flying conditions are expected to take place over the next 6-9 hours. Currently, fog/mist/low stratus are developing over parts of the region ahead of an approaching cold front due to light winds and some low level moisture around. MVFR-LIFR conditions have developed at some of the TAF sites this evening. Have TEMPO groups to reflect the ongoing situation. Expect for these conditions to persist through around daybreak on Saturday.

Following the passage of the cold front, drier air will allow for flight categories to improve back to VFR conditions with maybe some MVFR clouds around. Showers and maybe some thunder can be expected ahead of the cold front tonight into Saturday morning. Have Prob30s to reflect this potential.

Light and variable to calm winds will prevail tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. Following the cold fropa, north-northwest wind will strengthen with speeds 10-20 kts, gusting as high as 30 kts on Saturday.

MARINE

Issued at 1044 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Strong northerly winds behind the cold front will result in hazardous marine conditions developing on Saturday. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Laguna Madre and the Gulf Waters from Saturday morning to Sunday morning. Near gale force wind gusts cannot be ruled out early Saturday morning, and a brief Gale Warning cannot be ruled out. The Small Craft Advisory will likely need to be extended through Sunday. Marine conditions will gradually show improvements on Monday with favorable conditions returning Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 85 64 72 51 / 0 60 50 10 HARLINGEN 88 59 71 47 / 0 50 20 20 MCALLEN 89 62 71 51 / 0 30 10 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 88 58 70 49 / 0 20 20 40 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 64 71 57 / 0 70 50 10 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 85 61 73 51 / 0 60 40 20

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.