textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1104 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

- Despite lighter winds, the combination of very low afternoon relative humidity values today and tomorrow, as well as ongoing abnormally to extremely dry fuels and drought, pose some concern for fire weather conditions; outdoor burning is not recommended through tomorrow.

- Below average temperatures continue through tonight, becoming near average tomorrow and above average by Saturday.

- A High Risk of Rip Currents continues through this afternoon, becoming a moderate risk this evening and a low risk tomorrow morning.

- Dry conditions prevail aside from a low (10-15%) chance of rain near the coast next Tuesday.

- A warming trend is anticipated beginning next Monday, possibly increasing temperatures to as high as upper 80s to lower 90s by midweek.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1104 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Weather-wise, the forecast remains mainly quiet across Deep South Texas over the next 7 days as zonal flow or ridging aloft continue (for the most part). A high pressure over Texas maintains northerly lower level (925 mb) winds through the day today, becoming easterly by this evening and southwesterly by tomorrow morning as the high shifts southeastward offshore and southeast of the region. As a result, dry air continues to funnel into the CWA from the north today and from downsloping winds during the day tomorrow, dropping afternoon relative humidity values across inland Deep South Texas to as low as 20-40% today and 15-30% tomorrow. Although winds are expected to be light to gentle (at most around 5-10 mph, gusting up to 15 mph), there is some risk for fire weather conditions and outdoor burning is not recommended through tomorrow, especially considering that our region remains within a D0 to D3 Drought. Additionally, cold air advection leads to below average temperatures today (maximizing in the low 70s inland and 60s along the coast), minimizing in the low/mid 40s, possibly upper 30s in spots in the Northern Ranchlands, as surface winds become light and variable. Southeasterly to southerly winds return by late afternoon tomorrow, leading to highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s, falling to the 40s/50s by Saturday morning.

Southeasterly to southerly winds prevail into the remainder of the forecast, becoming a bit breezy next Monday and Tuesday (around 10- 15 mph, gusting to 15-20 mph along/east of I-69 E) as a pressure gradient tightens between the surface high pressure over the Gulf to our east and lowering pressure heights over the Sierra Madre to our west ahead of a mid/upper level trough moving east over northern Mexico and north of the CWA on Wednesday. Associated slight synoptic ascension aloft may bring a low (10-15%) chance of rain along the coast on Tuesday. Otherwise, conditions continue to remain dry (less than 10% chance of rain). Above average temperatures resume by Saturday, with highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the 50s over the weekend. A warming trend is anticipated Monday into the later parts of next week, increasing afternoon temperatures to potentially as high as the upper 80s to lower 90s by midweek while falling to the 50s/60s overnight.

A High Risk of Rip Currents continues through this afternoon, becoming a moderate risk this evening and a low risk tomorrow morning.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1104 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Mainly clear skies and VFR conditions continue through the 18Z TAF cycle. Light northerly winds during the day today become light and variable, or calm, overnight. Light southeasterly winds return tomorrow afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1104 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Marine conditions across the Lower Texas Coastal Waters continue to improve throughout today and tonight as northerly winds become light and easterly by this evening and gentle to moderate southwesterly to westerly winds with slight to moderate (2-3 feet) by tomorrow morning. Gentle to moderate southeasterly to southerly winds return by tomorrow evening, continuing into next week. There is a low (15-20%) chance of rain next Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 70 46 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 71 41 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 73 46 81 52 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 73 42 79 46 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 64 52 69 57 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 67 45 74 51 / 0 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ451-454- 455.

GM...None.