textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1037 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

- Hot with generally rain-free conditions through next weekend. However, there is a low (10-20%) rain chance across the Ranchlands on Monday and again across the Ranchlands and near the coast midweek.

- Highs in the mid to upper 90s along with afternoon heat indices of 100-110 degrees will maintain mostly moderate heat risks (level 2 of 4) through the week.

- There is a medium risk of life-threatening rip currents through at least Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1037 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Generally rain-free and hot conditions are forecast through late week into the weekend. However, there is a low (10-20%) rain chances expected across the northern ranchlands on Monday with the seabreeze. The primary threat from any stronger thunderstorm will be heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning. There is a low (10-20%) rain chances expected again across the northern ranchlands and near the coast as a mid-level disturbance moves over South Texas. The combination of high moisture content, weakness aloft and daytime will support mainly daytime showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. Some convection will be possible across the coastal waters Tuesday and Wednesday night as well. Rain-free conditions return Thursday into the weekend as subsidence increases.

Near normal temperatures are expected through the period with highs in the mid to upper 90s and lows in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. Elevated dewpoints and hot temperatures will lead to heat index values between 100-110 degrees each afternoon. This will maintain mainly a moderate heat risk (level 2 of 4) each day.

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue along the lower Texas beaches through at least mid week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Moderate and gusty southeast winds with a few cumulus clouds prevail across Deep South Texas early this evening. Southeast winds will decrease later this evening and become light overnight. Winds are expected to increase to 10 to 15 knots mid to late Monday morning with some gusts near 25 knots in the afternoon. Brief MVFR ceilings will be possible later tonight into early Monday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

MARINE

Issued at 1037 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Favorable conditions will prevail along the Lower Texas Coast through late week. Moderate southeast winds and low to moderate seas are expected through the period. However, can not rule out a brief period of Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions in the afternoon. There is a low rain chance (10-20%) Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winds and seas will be possible with any showers and thunderstorms that develop.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 94 80 94 80 / 10 0 10 0 HARLINGEN 95 77 95 77 / 10 0 10 0 MCALLEN 99 79 99 79 / 10 0 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 99 78 100 77 / 10 0 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 88 81 88 81 / 10 0 10 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 92 79 92 79 / 10 0 10 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.