textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 110 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

- Breezy southeasterly winds result in above average temperatures today and tomorrow, with a moderate risk of heat-related illnesses (level 2/4) and heat indices of 105-110 F today improving to a minor risk (level 1/4) tomorrow.

- A strong cold front arrives possibly Friday morning/afternoon, bringing strong northerly winds, much cooler temperatures, high risks of rip currents, elevated and dangerous surf as well as hazardous marine conditions and minor coastal flooding Friday evening into Saturday.

- There is a low to medium (30-60%) chance of rain along/near the coast in association with the front on Friday and low to medium (20-40%) chances may return next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 110 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Aside from a very low (10-15%) chance of brief light streamer showers, troughing over the Rockies as well as high pressure aloft and southeasterly surface winds across deep south Texas otherwise maintain dry and somewhat breezy conditions today and tomorrow, gusting to as high as 25-30+ mph this afternoon. Above average temperatures continue as well, maximizing in the low/mid 90s along/east of US-281 and mid/upper 90s further west in the afternoon today and tomorrow while minimizing in the 70s overnight tonight and tomorrow night. Factoring in onshore Gulf moisture advection, heat indices of 105-110 F and a moderate risk of heat-related illnesses are anticipated this afternoon, dropping to a minor risk (level 1/4) tomorrow and Friday as subsidence aloft dries relative humidity values.

Meanwhile, a strong upper level ridge arriving over the Northern and Central Plains tomorrow aids in deepening a trough over the Midwest and Great Lakes, pushing the attendant surface low pressure system's trailing cold front to the Southern Plains, passing through our region on Friday, possibly during the morning and afternoon hours, transitioning and enhancing winds to northerly with gusts to near 30- 35+ during the daytime. A secondary surge of high pressure Friday night is expected to result in a Wind Advisory Friday evening into Friday night or Saturday morning along/east US-281, where the NBM suggests a 50-80% probability of gusts exceeding 40 mph. According to the 90th percentile NBM probabilistic guidance, there is even the potential for a High Wind Watch/Warning across inland areas along/east US-281, where the higher end of gusts could reach to near 55+ mph.

Additionally, showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms may accompany the front, increasing chances of rain Friday to as much as a low to medium (30-60%) chance for the lower RGV (highest along the coast) while areas along the international border have a low (15-30%) chance before gradually diminishing throughout Friday evening. Yet, the biggest impacts will reside along the Lower Texas coast and coastal waters, where strong winds are likely to result in elevated wave heights, life-threatening rip currents, hazardous marine conditions and minor coastal flooding. Northerly winds begin to weaken throughout Saturday morning and afternoon as dry weather resumes.

On a sidenote, despite recent rains having improved the drought conditions across deep south Texas, dry and hot temperatures over the past couple of days and the ongoing drought could bring a bit of a wildfire spread concern along/behind the front as northerly winds usher in much drier air with crashing relative humidity values Friday afternoon into Saturday afternoon. Fire Danger Statements (RFDs) are possible for inland areas along/east US-281 during this period.

Depending on the timing of the front's arrival, temperatures may still manage to reach into the upper 80s and low 90s, warmest across the RGV, on Friday. However, once the front passes through, moderate to strong cold air advection brought in by the breezy northerly winds could drop temperatures by nearly 15-20 degrees and into the 50s and 60s Friday night, perhaps even a bit cooler Saturday night, with temperatures only reaching into the mid/upper 70s on Saturday. Following, high pressure aloft returns to the region, leading to a gradual warming trend into the middle of next week, when low to medium (20-40%) chances of rain may return.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1159 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

VFR conditions, with brief intervals of MVFR ceilings with potential light rain, are expected to continue into the afternoon hours, likely becoming mostly VFR tonight. Meanwhile, breezy southeasterly winds persist through this afternoon, around 10-15+ kt, gusting to 25-30 kt, before gradually subsiding overnight to gentle by early tomorrow morning.

MARINE

Issued at 110 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions are likely to continue into night as a result of a tightened pressure gradient leading to moderate to fresh southeasterly winds, while moderate (3-5 ft) seas persist as southeasterly winds improve to gentle to moderate throughout the day tomorrow, becoming easterly tomorrow afternoon/evening. A fairly strong cold front passes through Friday morning/afternoon, transitioning winds to northerly and quickly enhancing to near-gale with gale-force gusts, possibly by Friday evening, building seas to rough and/or very rough (10+ ft) late Friday night into Saturday. Thus, a Gale Watch is expected to be issued tomorrow or tomorrow night. Winds and seas may begin to improve throughout the later half of Saturday, followed by generally gentle to moderate northerly to northeasterly winds and moderate seas.

Otherwise, chances of rain increase late tomorrow night to as much as a medium to likely (40-80%) chance Friday afternoon, with low to medium (20-50%) chances lingering across the southern Lower Texas coastal waters on Saturday. Low (15-30%) chances of rain could return early next week, increasing to low to medium (30-60%) chance by the middle part of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 76 90 74 88 / 0 0 10 50 HARLINGEN 73 93 71 89 / 0 0 10 50 MCALLEN 77 96 74 92 / 0 10 10 40 RIO GRANDE CITY 75 95 72 90 / 0 0 10 40 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 79 86 78 85 / 0 0 10 70 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 88 74 86 / 0 0 10 60

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.