textproduct: Brownsville/Rio Grande Valley

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1132 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected across the ranchlands today and all of inland Deep South Texas on Sunday. Additional fire weather concerns continue mid to late week.

- Dangerous beach and marine conditions are expected this evening through Sunday, including life-threatening rip currents, high surf, and minor coastal flooding or runup.

- Below normal temperatures are expected between Sunday morning through Tuesday morning before above normal temperatures return into March.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1132 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

The initial wind shift with the cold front is working slowly through Deep South Texas, with the better push behind the front expected by late afternoon across the ranchlands and this evening through the Rio Grande Valley. Expect drier air to continue to filter south through Sunday afternoon, with temperatures topping off into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon, before falling below normal Sunday morning through Tuesday morning. Monday will be the coldest morning, with upper 30s to low 40s across the ranchlands and mid to upper 40s across the RGV. Temperatures warm above normal Tuesday afternoon and steamroll into March at 10-15 degrees above normal.

There remains a very low (around 15 percent or less) chance of rain this afternoon and nearly zero chance of any rainfall through the remainder of February. Unfortunately, RH values along and west of US281 generally slip below 30 percent every afternoon through the period, with RH values below 20 percent on Thursday afternoon behind the next dryline or weak frontal boundary.

Fire weather concerns continue to be the main hazard threat inland. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect this afternoon into this evening across most of the ranchlands and a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Sunday for all of inland portions of Deep South Texas with Red Flag Warnings and additional Fire Danger Statements likely issued this evening due to low humidity and gusty winds. Additional fire weather products may be needed mid to late week.

Along the beaches of the lower Texas coast, expect conditions to deteriorate this evening, behind the front, and continue into Sunday, with a High Risk of life-threatening rip currents, High Surf Advisory, and some minor coastal flooding, especially near high tide Sunday morning. Additional beach concerns are likely Wednesday into Thursday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period as the cold front pushes south, with gusty northerly winds arriving this evening through tonight. Expect any lingering haze to gradually improve this afternoon behind the initial northerly wind shift.

MARINE

Issued at 1132 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Marine fog and haze is expected to gradually improve into this afternoon, so will let the Dense Marine Fog Advisory expire. The cold front brings a solid push of northerly winds this evening, leading to a Small Craft Advisory across the bay and nearshore Gulf waters through Sunday and a Gale Warning for offshore Gulf waters through Sunday morning, with SCA conditions following into Sunday night. Southerly winds return Monday night, but increase into Wednesday, allowing a brief improvement Monday into Tuesday, then SCA conditions return Wednesday into Thursday. A brief northerly wind shift arrives late Thursday into early Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1132 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

With abundant cured fuels and worsening drought conditions, now into D4, fire weather concerns are mounting across Deep South Texas through the remainder of February. There is a Fire Danger Statement in effect for Zapata, Jim Hogg, and Brooks counties until 9 PM this evening.

Behind the cold front, RH values drop this evening across the brush country with poor recovery overnight. By daybreak Sunday, most inland locations are expected to below 40 percent and drop below 30 percent by noon, with most locations along and west of US281 falling below 20 percent by mid-afternoon and portions of Zapata and Jim Hogg counties potentially into single-digit humidity values. Gusty northerly winds will combine with these low RH values to produce elevated to critical fire weather conditions Sunday afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Sunday, with Red Flag Warnings and Fire Danger Statements likely to be issued this evening.

Increased winds on Tuesday and Wednesday and drier air arriving Thursday into Friday may drive additional fire weather products.

All the ingredients are there and generally will be all week, fire prevention messaging should be a top focus until drenching rainfall occurs.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

BROWNSVILLE 57 69 48 71 / 10 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 50 70 44 71 / 10 0 0 0 MCALLEN 53 74 48 75 / 10 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 50 73 43 74 / 10 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 59 65 58 66 / 10 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 55 67 51 69 / 10 0 0 0

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for TXZ248>255-353.

High Rip Current Risk from 6 PM CST this evening through Sunday afternoon for TXZ451-454-455.

High Surf Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Sunday for TXZ451-454-455.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ130-132-135-150- 155.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday for GMZ130-132-135-150-155.

Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday for GMZ170-175.