textproduct: Boston / Norton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

- Prolonged stretch of dry weather across southern New England. Moderating afternoon temperatures this weekend, though chilly mornings will bring widespread frost away from the immediate coast.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Prolonged stretch of dry weather across southern New England. Moderating afternoon temperatures this weekend, though chilly mornings will bring widespread frost away from the immediate coast.

Strong high pressure continues to sit over southern New England. Good radiational cooling overnight with widespread frost can be expected tonight and Sunday night. Lows tonight may fall well into the 20s in the higher elevations of the interior tonight along with other spots that radiate quite well. Closer to the coasts and towards Worcester, expect lows in the 40s and upper 30s. 925 mb temperatures improve to around 10C overnight and continue Monday, then to around 12C overnight Monday. Lows Sunday night won't be as low as tonight's as a result, but expect temperatures to still fall into the upper 20s in the interior and generally settle around freezing in areas that radiate out well, with 40s and upper 30s still expected in coastal areas. Highs Monday will improve to the mid to upper 60s and clear skies are expected to continue.

A prolonged stretch of dry but pleasant autumn weather is in store for Southern New England that continues into a large portion of the upcoming workweek. Expansive area of surface high pressure of around 1030-1034 mb will remain anchored across the Northeast and mid- Atlantic region, with mild days and cool nights with strong diurnal temperature ranges. About the only nuanced difference is that a cold front sags southward Monday night into Tuesday with a cooler northern-stream airmass filtering southward; but the front is moisture-starved and only seems capable of producing some enhanced cloudiness Monday evening and a cooldown in high temps moving into next week. Mildest days look to be this weekend with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s, but there could be a shot at 70 degrees with several days of dry weather serving as a mild feedback mechanism for overachieving maximum temps over guidance. Highs then cool off into the mid 50s to low 60s for early next week as the cooler lower-level airmass works it way in (925 mb temps dip to around +2 to +4C), only modifying toward mid to late next week.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update...High confidence.

VFR conditions persist this weekend. Light NW winds continue along with weak sea breezes along the eastern MA coasts. Calm/light W winds tonight. Winds shift more SW and remain below 10 kt for Sunday, then calm to light SW winds Sunday night.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Seabreeze expected to continue through the afternoon until around 00z-01z.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: VFR.

Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night: VFR.

Thursday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Sunday Night...High confidence.

High pressure remains in control, bringing dry weather and generally favorable marine conditions for the next several days. Light NW winds continue tonight, then shift more SW in the afternoon Sunday. These continue into Sunday night as well. Despite these light winds, seas in the outer waters remain elevated through tonight at 4-5 ft. These are expected to diminish by Sunday morning.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ254-255.