textproduct: Boston / Norton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast remains on track.

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot with dry weather today. Humidity briefly trends down tonight before returning to higher levels Mon-Wed. Relief from the heat comes late week.

- Overall unsettled weather continues through much of the week with daily shower and thunderstorm chances.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot with dry weather today. Humidity briefly trends down tonight before returning to higher levels Mon-Wed. Relief from the heat comes late week.

Expecting today to remain generally dry as overall flow returns to a zonal, westerly pattern. Temperatures remain in the upper 80s, near 90s, today as 925mb temps continue to hover around +22C. Expecting a weak cold front to push through later this evening, bringing a slightly drier airmass overnight. Unfortunately, dewpoints will likely remain elevated throughout the daytime hours, prolonging humid conditions, before trending into the low 60s tonight. The overall pattern is expected to linger through mid-week, leading daily high temps to be in the upper 80s and dewpoints to tick back up into the upper 60s, periodically near 70, through Wednesday before relief finally moves into southern New England... high temps by Friday near 80 with dewpoints dropping into the 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Overall unsettled weather continues through much of the week with daily shower and thunderstorm chances.

A low pressure system sitting over the Hudson Bay will slowly move south through the James Bay this week, pushing several upper-level shortwaves into the Eastern Townships and New England. These will likely be the catalyst for several days of diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances. Similarly to what we've seen over the last week, the models are struggling to resolve convection, leading to greater uncertainty in exactly where and when storms could fire. Southern New England will see several stretches of dry weather between these shortwaves, so not expecting rain and thunder all the time, but there will be storms to dodge here-and-there.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update...

Today and tonight...High confidence.

VFR conditions outside the risk for a brief period of lower VSBYS clipping ACK tonight. Otherwise...W winds may gust to around 20 knots or so this afternoon.

Monday...High confidence.

VFR outside a few late afternoon/evening scattered showers and a few t-storms with the greatest risk across interior southern New England. SW winds 5-12 knots but sea breezes possible along portions of the very immediate coast.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Tuesday through Wednesday: VFR.

Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, chance TSRA.

MARINE

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Monday... High Confidence.

High pressure remains positioned off of the east coast. This will continue to produce a SW flow across the waters this weekend. Gusts to 20 kts possible over the southern waters today, but should remain under SCA levels. Winds briefly turn WNW this evening with a frontal passage before returning to SW by Monday morning.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None.