textproduct: Boston / Norton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added Martha's Vineyard to the Rip Current Statement today.

KEY MESSAGES

- Drier with more seasonable temperatures today through much of this week.

- Rain chances return Thursday/Friday, though drier conditions look to return heading into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Drier with more seasonable temperatures today through much of this week.

Higher dewpoints with light winds and wet surfaces have aided in the development of areas of fog this morning, particularly in areas that tend to be more prone to it. This is expected to burn off shortly after sunrise.

A cold front associated with low pressure centered over eastern Ontario/western Quebec continues to track east over New England into the morning hours today. In its wake, clearer skies and breezy southwesterly winds prevail over southern New England. Occasional gusts to around 20-25 MPH are possible in the afternoon. Temperatures today return to more seasonable levels with highs back in the upper 70s and low 80s. This general pattern will continue at least into Wednesday as high pressure slowly builds in behind the front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances return Thursday/Friday, though drier conditions look to return heading into the weekend.

High pressure looks to shift offshore heading into Thursday ahead of a shortwave over the Great Lakes. Slightly more agreement amongst the ensembles regarding the track of its associated low pressure has come into the picture with the latest model runs, but uncertainty still remains. Low pressure develops over the Great Lakes, which guidance also resolves as extending up into Hudson Bay on the front end of the upper level trough. This low pressure is slated to track east through Canada, bringing showers down through New England. Timing-wise, guidance continues to key in on late Thursday/early Friday as the onset time for rain to return to southern New England, lasting through Friday. NAEFS guidance has continued to show more anomalous PWATs returning over the region within this timeframe as well. This will very likely change to some degree in the coming days as we approach this event.

Following rain towards the end of the work week, there are indications that high pressure makes a return heading into Saturday, drying out southern New England once more.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update...

Through 12z...Moderate confidence in trends but lower confidence in specific timing.

VFR/MVFR conditions, however light winds with higher dewpoints and remaining wet ground will remain conducive to the development of areas of fog. Some have already developed across NE MA, parts of RI and SE MA, and up in the Worcester hills. Areas all prone to fog will likely see it before daybreak if they aren't already, and it may become locally dense.

Monday and Monday night...High confidence.

Any leftover ground fog quickly burns off after sunrise this morning. VFR with SW winds of 7-13 kt with a few gusts up to 20 kts possible in the afternoon/evening hours across the region, though ACK may remain under an inversion that prevents the development of gusts based on the latest forecast soundings. VFR conditions continue tonight outside of any localized patches of ground fog that develop in typically prone locations. Winds become calm/light SW overnight.

Tuesday...High confidence.

Generally VFR, though lower end VFR to higher end MVFR possible over the interior. W winds 6-13 kt with gusts near the Cape and Islands nearing 20 kt possible.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF. Low clouds remain possible through 12z this morning.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in trends but lower confidence in specific timing. Fog has not developed yet within the valley, though could expect it to do so over the next few hours and reach BDL before sunrise.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night: VFR.

Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

MARINE

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Tuesday...High confidence.

Seas remain generally 2-4 ft through Tuesday. SW winds today into tonight up to 12 kt may gust to around 20 kt towards the afternoon hours. Winds then shift more to the W at 10-15 kt heading into Tuesday morning, though winds over the near northern waters may remain more S and below 10 kt through the afternoon. Gusts over the southern waters Tuesday may reach 20 kt or so again in the afternoon.

Swell periods of 11-12 seconds are expected off the coasts of Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket, which will lead to a higher risk of rip currents along south-facing beaches there, warranting expansion of the Rip Current Statement over the Vineyard. A moderate risk for rip currents extends along SE MA and RI beaches due to swells as well.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. MA...High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT this morning through this afternoon for MAZ023-024. RI...None. MARINE...None.