textproduct: Boston / Norton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry & seasonable this weekend with highs mainly in the middle 50s to the lower 60s...But cooler upper 40/lower 50s Sunday on the immediate coast with sea breezes. Lows tonight will mainly be in the 30s...But some middle to upper 20s expected in the normally coldest outlying locations.

- Summerlike warmth much of next week. Highs in the 60s to the lower 70s Mon. Highs may reach the 70s and even 80s at times the rest of the work week...But a lurking backdoor cold front may bring noticeably cooler temps for a day or two as well. Timing/location of that potential front is uncertain...but main risk for this will be in eastern MA. A few brief showers possible next week...but mainly dry weather.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry & seasonable this weekend with highs mainly in the middle 50s to the lower 60s...But cooler upper 40/lower 50s Sunday on the immediate coast with sea breezes. Lows tonight will mainly be in the 30s...But some middle to upper 20s expected in the normally coldest outlying locations.

Dry and seasonable weather is on tap for today and Sunday with seasonable temperatures. Plenty of sunshine will result in high temps reaching the middle 50s to the lower 60s today. Large high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes and low pressure over the Maritimes will result in a modest pressure gradient today...so it will be breezy today with northwest wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph.

High pressure over the Great Lakes will build across our region tonight and Sunday. This will result in diminishing wind tonight and mainly clear skies...yielding a good night of radiational cooling. Lows will mainly be in the 30s...but some middle to upper 20s are expected in the normally coldest outlying locations. Much less wind on Sunday with departing high pressure and highs mainly in the 50s to near 60. However...weak gradient will result in sea breezes along parts of the immediate coast holding highs into the upper 40s to the lower 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Summerlike warmth much of next week. Highs in the 60s to the lower 70s Mon. Highs may reach the 70s and even 80s at times the rest of the work week...But a lurking backdoor cold front may bring noticeably cooler temps for a day or two as well. Timing/location of that potential front is uncertain...but main risk for this will be in eastern MA. A few brief showers possible next week...but mainly dry weather persists.

The ensemble guidance is in excellent agreement in showing an upper level ridge of high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico for much of the upcoming work week. The result is west to southwest flow aloft and well above normal height fields into southern New England. This will result in summerlike warmth much of next week...but will need to watch for a backdoor cold front lurking nearby especially across eastern MA at times. We will explain more below.

A warm front will cross the region Sun night into Mon with a period of brief scattered showers possible. Depending on the timing of this warm front...expect highs to reach the 60s to the lower 70s on Mon. The rest of the work week...the anomalous upper level pattern supports high temperatures in the 70s and even 80s at times...perhaps challenging records. However...a backdoor cold front lurking nearby may result in a day or two of potentially much cooler temperatures. Timing/location of this boundary remains uncertain...but eastern MA is at the greatest risk for one or two much cooler days. This is quite indicative by looking at the box and whisker temperature plots among the ensembles. These show tremendous spread in high temperatures next week...while the spread decreases the further back into the interior you get.

So in a nutshell...unseasonable summerlike warmth with highs in the 70s and even 80s at times is likely much of next week. However...this may be interrupted for a day or two with a backdoor cold front. Greatest risk for this will be across eastern MA...which is shown in the extreme spread in the ensemble temperature forecast.

While a few brief showers are possible at times next week...the lack of synoptic scale forcing will result in dry weather dominating.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update...High confidence.

VFR conditions today into Sunday. Winds shift to the NW by daybreak and will gust to 25 knots today with perhaps a few gusts near 30 knots. Northwest winds diminish tonight becoming light/calm and then shift to the S-SW on Sunday at 7-13 knots...but we do expect sea breezes along parts of the immediate coast.

KBOS Terminal... High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal... High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Monday: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

Monday Night: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Tuesday: VFR.

Tuesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.

Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

MARINE

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Sunday...High confidence.

We have hoisted small craft headlines for nearshore waters along the eastern MA coast today. Good mixing over the land should yield NW 25+ knot wind gusts today. These winds will diminish tonight as high pressure builds over the waters...then shift to the S-SW on Sunday as the high departs but remain below small craft advisory thresholds. We also have lingering small craft headlines today across the outer-waters which should gradually diminish during the overnight hours. No marine headlines will be needed during the day Sunday.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Monday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

CLIMATE

Since we are potentially looking at our first 80-degree temperatures of the season early next week, here are some stats regarding average, earliest, and latest 80-degree temperatures.

Note that Hartford (Bradley) already hit 80 degrees this year back on March 31.

Boston: Average May 4, Earliest March 21, 1921, Latest June 16, 1924

Providence: Average May 4, Earliest March 20, 1945, Latest June 18, 1924

Hartford: Average April 28, Earliest March 9, 2016, Latest June 15, 1924

Worcester: Average May 4, Earliest March 15, 1990, Latest June 10, 1997

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230-231-251. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ250-254. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ255- 256.