textproduct: Boston / Norton
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
No significant changes to the forecast.
KEY MESSAGES
- Mostly quiet through tonight.
- A round or two of scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Thu afternoon into Fri, along with summerlike humidity.
- Mainly dry and seasonable weather follows for this weekend. Temperatures may trend above normal early next week.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Mostly quiet through tonight.
High pressure remains in control of our weather through tonight. Only expecting some clouds passing by at times. Rather light NW to W winds become local seabreezes along the coast by mid to late morning. Near to slightly above normal temperatures anticipated.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A round or two of scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Thu afternoon into Fri, along with summerlike humidity.
Model guidance was in relatively good agreement on the overall synoptic pattern. However, there are still some timing differences yet to be resolved. A low pressure should be moving across southeast Canada, pushing its associated fronts past southern New England. This should generate a round our two of showers or thunderstorms from some time Thursday afternoon into Friday. The greatest risk for thunderstorms will be in the warm sector ahead of a cold front. A faster timing would result in a greater risk for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. At this time, still favoring this risk to remain mainly to our west. These details could change with later forecasts.
Even if the stronger convection remains to our west, noticeably higher humidity should still arrive. Surface dew points should rise well through the 60s into the lower 70s for some.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Mainly dry and seasonable weather follows for this weekend. Temperatures may trend above normal early next week.
High pressure builds in behind the departing shortwave/cold front for this weekend. The result will be mainly dry and seasonable weather Sat into Sun. Ensembles indicating upper level flow may become more westerly early next week, allowing for temperatures to trend above normal.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
This afternoon...High confidence.
VFR. Light W-SW winds with local seabreezes along portions of the very immediate coast. Speeds 6-12 kts.
Tonight...High confidence.
VFR. Calm/light SW winds. IFR in patchy ground fog and stratus possible late in the typically prone locations.
Thursday...High confidence.
Mainly VFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible after 18Z with greater risk for western MA/CT terminals. Local MVFR possible in any SHRA and TSRA.
Thursday night...High confidence.
VFR initially then cigs drop to MVFR/IFR for interior terminals in lingering SHRA/TSRA, mainly through 6-8z.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Monday/...
Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night through Sunday: VFR.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Thursday night...High confidence.
Fairly quiet boating conditions with high pressure over the waters. Light NW to W winds to start with local seabreezes towards the coast late this morning and afternoon. Winds become more S to SW tonight, the increase Thursday. By Thursday evening, rain and thunderstorm chances increase from east to west through midnight.
Outlook /Thursday Night through Monday/...
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.
Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None.
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