textproduct: Boston / Norton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather prevails this week with continued seasonable temperatures. The holiday weekend favors dry weather, though watching late Sunday into Monday for a chance of rain.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather prevails this week with continued seasonable temperatures. The holiday weekend favors dry weather, though watching late Sunday into Monday for a chance of rain.

Cool, dry, NW flow persists today thanks to surface high pressure moving over NY by the afternoon and over SNE tonight into Wednesday. This will slacken the pressure gradient leading to a steady decrease in the breeziness we've seen of late. High pressure supports sunny skies and cold advection brings a cooler airmass overhead meaning highs won't get out of the 50s for most today as 925 mb temps drop from 11-13C on Monday to 5-7C on Tuesday. The high's influence will be felt most overnight as clear skies and calm winds lead to efficient radiational cooling and much cooler low temperatures. Leaning on MOS guidance which handles these regimes better than other guidance, we should see fairly widespread lows in the 33-37F range. As such, a Frost Advisory is in effect for the typically coolest spots.

It will be a brief cool down as a vertically stacked low near the Hudson Bay will send a weak trough through the northeast Wed into Thursday backing flow to the SW and pumping up temperatures into the mid 60s by Wednesday and low to mid 70s by Thursday. With this comes some moisture advection as well leading to higher humidity on Thursday ahead of the cold front. However, lacking good dynamics and moisture, current thinking is that Thursday evening's cold front is mostly dry. High pressure then builds back into New England for the Friday/Saturday period bringing sunny skies and seasonable temperatures in the 60s. This ridge of high pressure should preclude a disturbance passing to our north Sunday from affecting SNE. However, we'll continue to monitor the remnants of what is currently AL92 in the Gulf which may dampen the end of our holiday weekend; confidence in this outcome is quite low, though, as high pressure could very well deflect it to the south.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update...

Through Tuesday Night...High confidence.

VFR with gusty winds with more of a NW turn Tuesday. Gusty winds subside towards Tuesday night, becoming calm.

Wednesday...High confidence.

VFR. Winds calm to start becoming SW 5-10 kts with gusts to 20 kts possible.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. Breezy.

Thursday Night: VFR.

Friday: VFR. Breezy.

Friday Night through Saturday: VFR.

MARINE

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Tuesday Night...High confidence.

Gust W-WNW wind and agitated seas in the wake of a cold front, thus Small Craft Advisories for all waters.

High pressure then moves from the central Appalachians to the Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday. Seas and winds begin to diminish late tonight into Tuesday and increase to 5-10 kts out of the SW on Wednesday with seas 2-3 ft.

Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Thursday through Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for CTZ002>004. MA...Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for MAZ002>005-008>011-013-017-018-020-021-026. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ231>235-237-251. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ250- 254>256.