textproduct: Boston / Norton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Small craft advisories issued for many of our waters. Otherwise...no significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

- Plenty of sunshine today & even milder with highs well into the 60s to perhaps near 70 in a few spots...But cooler lower to middle 50s on the south coast. Brief scattered showers late tonight.

- Dry & seasonable this weekend with highs mainly in the middle 50s to the lower 60s. Lows Sat night mainly in the 30s with some middle to upper 20s in the normally coldest outlying locations.

- Summer-like warmth arrives early next week. Highs well into the 60s to the lower 70s Mon and potentially 80+ Tue. Duration of warmth is uncertain, with backdoor cold front lurking nearby midweek. Other than a few brief showers possible at times...dry weather dominates.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Plenty of sunshine today & even milder with highs well into the 60s to perhaps near 70 in a few spots...But cooler lower to middle 50s on the south coast. Brief scattered showers late tonight.

Any spotty low clouds/fog patches especially across CT/RI early this morning will burn off quickly after sunrise. Otherwise...low pressure and its associated cold front will be tracking across the eastern Great lakes today. Out ahead of this front...S-SW flow will result in even milder temps working into the region today. Plenty of sunshine and a well mixed atmosphere should allow highs to reach well into the 60s in many locations away from the south coast with perhaps a few spots flirting with 70. It will become a bit breezy by afternoon with southwest wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph and perhaps a few gusts near 30 mph towards the Cape/Islands. This will also result in a modified marine airmass near the south coast, Cape and Islands holding highs in the lower to middle 50s in those spots.

A cold front will be crossing the region tonight. Deep layer moisture and forcing is rather limited...but brief scattered showers will be possible mainly during the late evening and overnight hours. Any of this activity will be short-lived in a given location with amounts quite light.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry & seasonable this weekend with highs mainly in the middle 50s to the lower 60s. Lows Sat night mainly in the 30s with some middle to upper 20s in the normally coldest outlying locations.

Dry and seasonable April weather will follow tonight/s cold frontal passage for the weekend. Large high pressure building across the eastern Great Lakes on Sat will combined with low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes. This will result in a modest pressure gradient...so expect northwest wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph during the day Sat. Highs Sat will mainly be in the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

The large high pressure system will build overhead Sat night into Sun. This will result in continued dry weather but with diminishing wind. This will allow for a good night of radiational cooling Sat night. Lows Sat night should mainly be in the 30s...but expect some middle to upper 20s in the normally coldest outlying locations. Plenty of sunshine on Sunday with light winds will yield highs between 55 and 60. However...a weak gradient will allow for sea breezes and localized cooler temps along parts of the immediate coast.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Summer-like warmth arrives early next week. Highs well into the 60s to the lower 70s Mon and potentially 80+ Tue. Summer-like warmth may linger Wed & Thu...but that is uncertain especially across eastern MA with a potential backdoor cold front lurking nearby. A few showers possible at times...but dry weather dominates the majority of the time.

A warm front will cross the region Sun night into Mon morning with the potential for a brief round of scattered showers. A few convectively driven showers/isolated t-storms will also be possible at times through mid-week given airmass in place...but dry weather will dominate.

Otherwise...the main story is above normal temps on Mon and potential for summerlike warmth by Tue. Upper level ridging nosing northward from the Gulf will result in well above normal height fields with westerly flow aloft. Currently thinking highs will be well into the 60s to the lower 70s Mon and potentially 80+ by Tue away from the immediate coast and potential sea breezes. Summerlike warmth may persist Wed & Thu...but that is uncertain especially across eastern MA with a potential backdoor cold front lurking nearby. So there is the potential for a large variation in temperatures depending on timing/location of any backdoor cold front.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update...High confidence.

Mainly VFR conditions persist today through Saturday. That being said...we will be dealing with some scattered pockets of MVFR-IFR ceilings/vsbys especially across CT/RI and possibly parts of SE MA very early this morning. This should burn off short after sunrise. We also may see a brief period of MVFR conditions tonight with brief scattered showers and perhaps some spotty low clouds/fog patches near the south coast. Again...outside of that expect VFR conditions through Saturday.

S-SW winds will gust to 20-25 knots by this afternoon with a few gusts near 30 knots towards the Cape and Islands. A modest SW low level jet ahead of a cold front will result in some LLWS tonight. Behind this cold front...winds shift to the NW toward daybreak Sat with gusts of 25 knots developing.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF through 12z or so... where some MVFR ceilings will be flirting with the terminal at times. Otherwise...high confidence in the TAF after 12z.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

Sunday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.

Monday: VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

Monday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Saturday...High confidence.

An approaching cold front will increase the southwest gradient today. This will result in southwest wind gusts of 25 knots developing across most of our waters especially nearshore with better mixing near the land. In fact...there may also be some nearshore 30 knot wind gusts towards the southeast New England coast this afternoon. Small craft wind gusts will gradually diminish overnight...but lingering marginal small craft seas will require headlines across our outer-waters into Sat. We also expect marginal nearshore NW wind gusts around 25 knots on Sat with good mixing behind the cold front.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Sunday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Monday: Strong winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

CLIMATE

Since we are potentially looking at our first 80-degree temperatures of the season early next week, here are some stats regarding average, earliest, and latest 80-degree temperatures.

Note that Hartford (Bradley) already hit 80 degrees this year back on March 31.

Boston: Average May 4, Earliest March 21, 1921, Latest June 16, 1924

Providence: Average May 4, Earliest March 20, 1945, Latest June 18, 1924

Hartford: Average April 28, Earliest March 9, 2016, Latest June 15, 1924

Worcester: Average May 4, Earliest March 15, 1990, Latest June 10, 1997

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ231>235-251. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ250-254. Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ255-256.