textproduct: Boston / Norton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly quiet through tonight.

- A round or two of scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Thu afternoon into Fri, along with summerlike humidity.

- Mainly dry and seasonable weather follows for this weekend. Temperatures may trend above normal early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mostly quiet through tonight.

High pressure remains in control of our weather through tonight. Only expecting some clouds passing by at times. Rather light NW to W winds become local seabreezes along the coast by mid to late morning. Near to slightly above normal temperatures anticipated.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A round or two of scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Thu afternoon into Fri, along with summerlike humidity.

Model guidance was in relatively good agreement on the overall synoptic pattern. However, there are still some timing differences yet to be resolved. A low pressure should be moving across southeast Canada, pushing its associated fronts past southern New England. This should generate a round our two of showers or thunderstorms from some time Thursday afternoon into Friday. The greatest risk for thunderstorms will be in the warm sector ahead of a cold front. A faster timing would result in a greater risk for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. At this time, still favoring this risk to remain mainly to our west. These details could change with later forecasts.

Even if the stronger convection remains to our west, noticeably higher humidity should still arrive. Surface dew points should rise well through the 60s into the lower 70s for some.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Mainly dry and seasonable weather follows for this weekend. Temperatures may trend above normal early next week.

High pressure builds in behind the departing shortwave/cold front for this weekend. The result will be mainly dry and seasonable weather Sat into Sun. Ensembles indicating upper level flow may become more westerly early next week, allowing for temperatures to trend above normal.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...High confidence.

VFR. Light W-SW winds with local seabreezes developing along portions of the very immediate coast between 14-15Z. Speeds 6-12 kts.

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR. Calm/light SW winds. IFR in patchy ground fog and stratus possible late in the typically prone locations.

Thursday...High confidence.

Mainly VFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible after 18Z with greater risk for western MA/CT terminals. Local MVFR possible in any SHRA and TSRA.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Sea breeze will develop in the 14z-15z time frame.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night through Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Friday Night through Sunday: VFR.

MARINE

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Thursday...High confidence.

Fairly quiet boating conditions during this time with high pressure over the waters. Light NW to W winds to start with local seabreezes towards the coast late this morning and afternoon. Winds become more S to SW tonight, the increase Thursday.

Outlook /Thursday Night through Sunday/...

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Saturday Night through Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None.