textproduct: Boston / Norton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes have been made to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather through the weekend with chilly/frosty nights and sunny/mild afternoons. Lows mainly in the 20s & 30s with highs in the upper 50s-lower 60s Sat and well into the 60s Sun.

- High pressure dominates through next week bringing plenty of sunny days and cooler nights.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather through the weekend with chilly/frosty nights and sunny/mild afternoons. Lows mainly in the 20s & 30s with highs in the upper 50s-lower 60s Sat and well into the 60s Sun.

Distant offshore ocean storm will continue to lift NE and move further way losing its grip on our region. Lingering gusty winds across the Cape/Islands will diminish early this evening. Otherwise...a large 1035+ mb high pressure system will build overhead from the west through the weekend. The result will be mainly clear skies with chilly/frosty nights and mild sunny afternoons. Excellent radiational cooling conditions will allow for lows to drop into the 20s across the normally colder outlying locations with mainly 30s elsewhere. Meanwhile the Urban Heat Island of Boston will probably not drop below 40. Highs Sat will recover nicely into the upper 50s and lower 60s and well into the 60s Sun. Winds will also be rather light resulting in comfortable afternoons for the latter half of October.

KEY MESSAGE 2...High pressure dominates through next week, bringing plenty of sunny days and cooler nights.

Strong high pressure will prevail across New England for most of next week. Mostly sunny skies, dry conditions, and mostly calm winds are expected for a majority of the week, leading to good radiational cooling most nights. Day time temperatures are likely to remain in the upper 50s to mid 60s and nighttime temps generally in the low to mid 30s for most of southern New England.

Two exceptions to the pleasant conditions: a weak cold front drops into the region Tuesday, leading to some gusty winds Tuesday afternoon/evening along the Cape/Islands/SE MA and cooler temperatures behind the front on Wednesday (likely in the low 50s). This front looks to be moisture-starved and not likely to produce any showers at this time.

A second cold front looks to sweep through sometime Thursday night/early Friday morning, bringing some slightly increased PoPs (10-20) to portions of SNE.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update...High confidence.

VFR conditions continue through the weekend. Lingering NE 20-30 knot wind gusts across the Cape/Islands diminish early this evening. Otherwise...sustained winds generally 10 knots or less through the weekend.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday through Wednesday/...

Monday: VFR.

Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: VFR.

MARINE

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight through Sunday...High confidence.

Lingering NE wind gusts of 20-30 knots across our eastern waters diminish this evening as distant offshore low pressure system loses its grip our region. Otherwise...a large high pressure system builds in from the west across our waters this weekend. Seas will continue to diminish...but lingering swell will keep some marginal sca seas into our southeastern most waters into Sat evening. After that time...all of our waters will have finally dropped below small craft advisory criteria.

Outlook /Monday through Wednesday/...

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ231-232- 251. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ250. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ254-255. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ256.