textproduct: Boston / Norton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry with continued fall temperatures. An early look at the holiday weekend favors dry weather, though late Sunday into Monday bears watching for rain.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mostly dry with continued fall temperatures. An early look at the holiday weekend favors dry weather, though late Sunday into Monday bears watching for rain.

Dissipating showers moving east across southern New England this afternoon could result in a couple of hours with stronger gusts than what we have seen so far today. Peak wind gusts up to 35-40 mph are possible before sunset, but most will only be 25-30 mph.

Turning cooler tonight into Tuesday night, with below normal temperatures expected. Patchy frost will be possible tonight towards sheltered areas of the east slopes of the Berkshires. Winds will be too high to permit much frost. This should not be the case for Tuesday night. Thinking more widespread opportunities for frost across the normally colder locations of MA and northern CT.

A quiet stretch of fall weather is expected through much of the period as high pressure remains the dominant feature. A vertically stacked low near Hudson Bay will send a few subtle shortwaves through New England Thursday and Friday. Limited moisture should preclude significant rainfall, though a spot shower cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, dry weather prevails through the start of the holiday weekend. Forecast uncertainty increases late Sunday into Columbus Day and will depend largely on potential tropical development over the Bay of Campeche. The NHC currently gives AL92 an 80 percent chance of formation over the next 7 days. Some guidance brings remnant tropical moisture north into southern New England, while other solutions keep it suppressed to our south. Plenty of time to watch trends, with no reason to alter outdoor plans at this point. Temperatures remain fall-like with highs mainly in the lower to middle 60s, except upper 60s to lower 70s Thursday. Overnight lows are mostly in the upper 40s and 50s, though cooler upper 30s to middle 40s are possible Saturday night.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Tuesday Night...High confidence.

VFR with gusty W winds into tonight. Brief period of stronger gusts as a band of dissipating showers passes by. Gusty winds with more of a NW turn Tuesday. Gusty winds subside towards Tuesday night.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday through Thursday: VFR. Breezy.

Thursday Night through Saturday: VFR.

MARINE

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Tuesday Night...High confidence.

A cold front crosses the waters this evening. High pressure then moves from the central Appalachians to the Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday. Seas and winds begin to diminish late tonight into Tuesday.

Outlook /Wednesday through Saturday/...

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230- 236. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ231>235-237- 251. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ250-254. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ255-256.