textproduct: Boston / Norton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

- Prolonged period of dry and quiet weather through next week with cold nights and mild afternoons, especially Tuesday and beyond.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Prolonged period of dry and quiet weather through next week with cold nights and mild afternoons, especially Tuesday and beyond.

Though the surface low will continue to move well east of the region today, the mid level trough is lagging behind leading to continued cyclonic flow with a cold pool aloft. Though lacking enough moisture for appreciable precipitation (PWATs near 0.3") we'll see plenty of diurnal cloudcover popping up by late morning/early afternoon. The exception will be over the high terrain of the Berkshires where the addition of upslope orographic lift may be enough to overcome lacking moisture and produce some isolated showers in the afternoon.

Looking toward the latter half of the weekend and next week we see good consensus amongst the guidance in a prolonged stretch dominated by a very broad area of high pressure over the entire eastern half of the U.S. Besides lack of moisture (expect plenty of sun with no rain chances) this places SNE under dry westerly flow leading to clear, calm nights and good radiational cooling. Thus, while afternoons will feature milder than average highs in the 60s by Wednesday and beyond, big temperature swings will be common between early morning and mid afternoon.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

06Z update...

Through 12Z: High confidence TAF.

VFR. North to northwest winds 8-12 kt with gusts to 20 kt.

Saturday and Saturday Night...High confidence.

VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts. Diurnal cloudcover bases from 050 to 060 after 17z. Areas MVFR possible towards the east slopes of the Berkshires. A stray shower cannot be ruled out there also.

Sunday...High confidence.

VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Monday through Tuesday: VFR.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Sunday...High confidence.

Small Craft Advisories continue across the coastal water, dropping as winds decrease through the day on Saturday. Gusty winds will linger through Saturday night, but the main hazard will be the lingering rough seas, especially across the southern coastal waters. High pressure approaches Sunday into next week leading to light winds and diminishing seas.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Monday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for ANZ235- 237-250. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ254. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ255-256.