textproduct: Boston / Norton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Converted Gale Warnings to Small Craft Advisories across the coastal waters. Canceled the Gale Warnings across the ocean waters.

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly cloudy with slow warming through Saturday night.

- Prolonged period of dry weather for most if not all of next week with chilly nights and mild days. High temps moderate to above normal levels in the upper 50s to the lower 60s for the middle and latter half of next week with perhaps a day or two reaching into the middle 60s in some spots.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly cloudy with slow warming through Saturday night.

Southern New England should remain in a cyclonic flow at the surface through Saturday night. A mid level shortwave should approach our region Saturday afternoon, before passing overhead Saturday night. The question is how much moisture will be around. Current thinking is there will be more clouds than not. Cannot completely dismiss the idea of a stray rain or snow shower towards portions of northwest MA, where upslope flow into the Berkshires will also play a role. Eventually, though the lower levels should dry out enough where the risk for precipitation is nearly nil.

Raised low temperatures from the NationalBlend values due to expected cloud cover preventing strong radiational cooling. North winds become more westerly late tonight into Saturday. That subtle shift should limit cold air advection, and some sunshine should contribute to gradually rising temperatures early this weekend. That said, still thinking temperatures remain slightly below normal into Sunday.

A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for northern facing shores of Cape Cod Bay and Nantucket where gusty winds combined with astronomical tides may lead to some minor coastal flooding/splashover during the hours directly around high tide this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Prolonged period of dry weather for most if not all of next week with chilly nights and mild days. High temps moderate to above normal levels in the upper 50s to the lower 60s for the middle and latter half of next week with perhaps a day or two reaching into the middle 60s in some spots.

The long range model guidance is in very good agreement in the upper trough shifting east of the region early next week. This will be replaced by upper level ridging/above normal height fields. The result will be an extended period of dry weather for most if not all of next week. High temperatures will moderate back to above normal levels for the middle to latter portion of next week with highs in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. In fact, would not be surprised to see temperatures overachieve with some spots perhaps reaching the middle 60s for a day two. Mainly clear skies and light winds will allow for chilly/seasonable overnight lows in the 20s and 30s.

So in a nutshell, a dry/tranquil week of weather is in store for the region. A large diurnal spread in temps is also expected with seasonably chilly nights but mild/above normal afternoons.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

06Z update...

Through 12Z: High confidence TAF.

VFR. North to northwest winds 8-12 kt with gusts to 20 kt.

Saturday and Saturday Night...High confidence.

VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts. Diurnal cloudcover bases from 050 to 060 after 17z. Areas MVFR possible towards the east slopes of the Berkshires. A stray shower cannot be ruled out there also.

Sunday...High confidence.

VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday through Monday: VFR. Breezy.

Monday Night through Tuesday: VFR.

Tuesday Night through Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Saturday Night...High confidence.

Based on recent buoy reports, lowered the Gale Warnings to Small Craft Advisories across the coastal waters, and canceled the Gale Warnings across the ocean waters. Gusty winds will linger through Saturday night, but the main hazard will be the lingering rough seas, especially across the southern coastal waters.

Outlook /Sunday through Wednesday/...

Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Monday Night through Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ235-237- 250. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for ANZ254. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ255-256.