textproduct: Boston / Norton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes. Monitoring sfc haze/smoke conditions for the day as Canadian wildfire smoke continues to move in.

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazy/smoky conditions linger.

- Dangerous rip currents expected on south-facing beaches into this evening.

- While seasonable temperatures return for the end of the week, chances for showers and thunderstorms begin to increase heading into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Hazy/smoky conditions linger.

While hazy and smoky conditions should persists into Thursday, the question remains about how concentrated it will be close to the ground. Currently thinking there is not much hope of the smoke aloft completely dissipating before Friday. Favored the lower temperature guidance for Thursday after seeing how the smoke affected them today. Even so, perhaps have not gone low enough with high temperatures tomorrow.

Not much chance for showers through Thursday night. Any that do form would likely bring more smoke to the ground, and not result in much rainfall.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dangerous rip currents expected on south-facing beaches into this evening.

Wave heights continue to subside this evening, gradually bringing an end to the threat of rip currents along the south- facing beaches overnight. Swim near vicinity of lifeguards and stay off jetties today.

KEY MESSAGE 3...While seasonable temperatures return for the end of the week, chances for showers and thunderstorms begin to increase heading into the weekend.

Seasonable temperatures return Friday as the upper level ridge that's been dominating the region slides offshore and a cold front ushers in a cooler airmass. 925 mb temperatures fall to generally around 18-20C, which will be more supportive of high temperatures in the low to mid 80s through the weekend and into early next week.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms begin to increase heading into the weekend as a surface low approaches Saturday, bringing prolonged southwesterly flow and surging PWATs. Consensus is improving that southern New England could see beneficial rainfall Saturday into Sunday but the latest ensemble guidance is quite spread on exactly how much precipitation could fall.

A brief spell of drier conditions is possible Monday as high pressure builds somewhere over the Appalachian region. Chances for showers then increase again for the middle of next week as a surface low moves east across Ontario and a trailing cold front sweeps through the mid-Atlantic region into New England.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Thursday Night: High confidence.

VFR, though hazy/smoky skies continue into Thursday. W/NW winds around 5-10 kt tonight, then increasing with gusts to 25 kt Thu. Light NW winds Thu night.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence. Likely VFR through the night as smoke thins a little. Expecting another thick plume of smoke to arrive Thur 16z-18z and drop visbys to MVFR.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence. Likely VFR through the night as smoke thins a little. Expecting another thick plume of smoke to arrive Thur 16z-18z and drop visbys to MVFR.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday through Friday Night: VFR.

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA, chance TSRA.

Sunday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Sunday Night through Monday: VFR.

MARINE

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Thursday Night: High confidence.

Lingering rough seas and gusty southwest winds will continue to subside this afternoon. Will permit the Small Craft Advisories to expire at 8 PM. Relatively light winds and seas expected into Thursday night. There may be a few gusts up to 25 kt for a time late morning Thursday into the afternoon. Not enough confidence to extend a Small Craft Advisory across the southern coastal waters at this time. That may come with later forecasts.

Otherwise, hazy/smoky sky conditions are expected through Thursday night. Some areas of reduced visibility could be possible due to this smoke.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday through Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Saturday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain showers, chance of thunderstorms.

Sunday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...Air Quality Alert until noon EDT Thursday for CTZ002>004. MA...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Thursday night for MAZ002>024-026. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020>024. RI...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT Thursday night for RIZ001>008. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for RIZ006>008. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ232>235-237-254>256.