textproduct: Boston / Norton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered rainfall chances this evening.

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures and humidity continues through Tuesday. Relief from the heat and humidity comes late week and especially this weekend.

- Unsettled weather continues this week with shower and thunderstorms chances returning this evening as well as Wednesday night/Thursday morning.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures and humidity continues through Tuesday. Relief from the heat and humidity comes late week and especially this weekend.

A bit of a persistence temperature forecast to start the week as the pattern is overall pretty zonal. Model soundings indicate mixing up to near 850 mb where temperatures are/will be hovering around 16C resulting in highs in the upper 80s, perhaps touching 90s in the warmest spots today and Tuesday. We'll then see a gradual cooling down through the work week and especially by the weekend. 850 mb temps drop to near 13C by mid week leading to highs in the upper 70s (high elevations) to mid 80s. The weekend, though, looks quite comfortable as dewpoints which will be elevated at times through the week but never oppressive, really drop by the weekend into the upper 40s to low 50s! This leads to the chance for some cooler nights in the 50s while afternoon temps may not make it out of the 70s for many locations.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather continues this week with shower and thunderstorms chances returning this evening, as well as some time from late Wednesday night into Thursday night.

Showers and thunderstorms diminished quickly after sunset. Recent radar trends supported the idea of mainly dry weather for most. Lowered rainfall chances this evening.

Tuesday and Wednesday should remain dry and mostly sunny with more comfortable humidity.

Complicated forecast from late Wednesday night into Thursday night. Expecting a frontal boundary to meander across southern New England. Thus, the timing is not well known. This front should provide a trigger for some showers at times, but it should not be a washout. A high pressure should finally get close enough on Friday to push this front offshore, and return drier and cooler weather into early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight: High confidence.

VFR. SW winds 5-10 kts shift to WSW/W overnight.

Tuesday: High confidence.

VFR. NW winds 10-15 kts.

Tuesday night: High confidence.

VFR. Winds light and variable.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Wildfire smoke aloft possible.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR.

Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

Friday through Friday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday: VFR.

MARINE

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Tuesday night... High Confidence.

Relatively light winds and seas expected. SW winds shift W overnight through Tuesday, then NW Tuesday night.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Saturday/...

Wednesday through Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None.