textproduct: Boston / Norton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes. Monitoring potential for downpours Tuesday and Wednesday along with hazardous marine conditions.

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant and much less humid today and Monday, although dangerous rip currents are expected today on south-facing beaches.

- Active weather returns Tuesday through Wednesday night. Another round of soaking downpours is possible, to go along with potentially hazardous marine conditions and high surf.

- Drying out late-week with a return to more seasonable temperatures and lower humidity levels into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Pleasant and much less humid today and Monday, although dangerous rip currents are expected today on south-facing beaches.

As of early this morning we're still watching some lingering showers and t-storms out on Cape Cod and the Islands, but the anticipated strong cold front is now working its way central New York, Vermont and New Hampshire. This feature's passage before sunrise will bring about northwesterly breezes (upwards of 25 mph), decreasing cloud cover and rapidly falling dewpoint temps/humidity levels. In fact dewpoints in northern New York and Vermont are now in the mid 50s, and diurnal mixing should push these down into the upper 40s! Full sun today with 850 mb temps in the upper single digits to low teens, but mid-July sun angle and downsloping should still support highs in the upper 70s to lower/mid 80s. We'll also have clear air and not the smoky conditions we've dealt with of recent. If you're headed to the southern beaches though, swell of 4-7 ft from yesterday's SW winds will still support a high risk for rip currents, with rip current statement in effect for today. That's the only fly in the ointment though. Not sure if today qualifies as the pick of summer 2026, but it's certainly in the running. Enjoy!

High pressure continues to ridge in tonight and shifts just to our south on Mon. With easing winds and strong radiational cooling wouldn't rule out patchy fog given the wet conditions over the last 24 hrs, but dewpoints will be falling into tonight. Monday's a touch warmer but still sunny and pleasant in the low to mid 80s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Active weather returns Tuesday through Wednesday night. Another round of soaking downpours is possible, to go along with potentially hazardous marine conditions and high surf.

Still some details to iron out but weather looks poised to turn more humid and unsettled again by Tue, continuing potentially into Wed/Wed night. The next rather strong northern- stream mid/upper- level disturbance draws northward tropical moisture from the northeast Gulf Tue into Tue night, along/ahead of a surface cold front/frontal occlusion which moves offshore into early Wed. Strong moisture convergence should favor Tue/Tue night as having the greatest potential for downpours and heavy rain footprints. Global ensemble QPF probabilities show moderate to high (40-70%) probs of 24-hour total rains of an inch or greater, highest over southeast New England, with low (<30%) probs of 2-inch 24 hr totals. Wind fields also improve too, but it's debatable if that translates to severe weather, as most of the machine learning progs don't offer much potential. By Wed, more instability type showers and storms are favored underneath the upper trough before it begins to pull away later Wed/Wed night.

Will also make a mention for mariners/beachgoers that southwest winds pick up substantially Tue night and Wed; ensemble 34-kt wind progs out on the waters are in the 40-70% range so it's very possible gale watches could be needed in the coming days. Seas expected to build and become rough, reaching upwards of 12 ft on the southern outer waters, so that could support a need for high surf headlines for south-facing beaches in the coming days too.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Drying out late-week with a return to more seasonable temperatures and lower humidity levels into next weekend.

Cyclonic flow aloft will still govern our weather late this week into the weekend but surface high pressure building in should support dry weather, lower humidity levels and seasonable temperatures.

AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

06z TAF Update:

Through 12z Sunday: High confidence.

Initial MVFR/VFR ceilings improve to VFR as a cold front moves southeastward from 08-12z Sunday. Windshift to NW around 10-12 kt with gusts in the 20-23 kt range.

Today: High confidence.

VFR. NW winds 10-14 kt with gusts 20-25 kt, gradually easing late in the day.

Tonight: High confidence.

Mainly VFR; can't rule out patchy fog/mist toward daybreak given recent rains, but uncertain on development. NW winds 7-10 kt early ease to light WSW.

Monday: High confidence.

VFR. WSW winds increase to 5-10 kt; potential for a seabreeze at BOS late morning to midafternoon but it could be short-lived.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: VFR.

Tuesday: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. SHRA, chance TSRA.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. SHRA likely, chance TSRA.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Chance SHRA.

Thursday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

SCAs continue on most waters today as winds shift to NW with gusts in the 25 to possibly 30 kt range early, but then gradually decrease into the afternoon. Seas 4-7 ft which will be slowly decreasing today.

NW winds decrease tonight to 10 kt or less. Good boating weather Monday as winds turn SW around 10-15 kt.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers, chance of thunderstorms. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Rain showers likely, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Wednesday Night: Low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. MA...High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for MAZ020-022>024. RI...High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT this morning through this evening for RIZ006>008. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ230>237-250-251. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ254>256.