textproduct: Boston / Norton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No changes to the forecast for this update cycle.

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and seasonable weather with low humidity levels this weekend into Monday.

- Heat and humidity return by midweek.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry and seasonable weather with low humidity levels this weekend into Monday.

Areas of patchy fog from lingering moisture quickly mix out this morning as surface high pressure builds over the region and becomes centered over New England Sunday into Monday. A more comfortable airmass under this feature brings temperatures in the mid 80s and low humidity with dew points in the upper 50s/low 60s. The drier air mass will keep rain chances to near zero before moisture returns later in the week. A disturbance sliding well to the S of the region may provide a few high clouds across the S coast later Saturday, but impacts from weather will be very limited this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Heat and humidity return by midweek.

Mid-level high pressure ridging will remain over the Central U.S., stretching across into the Mid Atlantic through much of next week, bringing mostly hot and dry weather across the Northeast. Hot temperatures in the low to mid 90s will return mid week with 850mb temperatures ranging from +18 to +22C. We may need to consider a period of heat headlines with dew points rising into the mid to upper 60s again.

Rain chances through the period will generally remain low with a better chance on Tuesday into Wednesday with a possible shortwave trough moving through Northern New England. Southerly return flow at the surface will be short lived prior to this perturbation moving through, so moisture depth will remain shallow. Models are showing possible deeper upper-level troughing toward the end of the week, so we may start to see increasing rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures if that trend continues.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Sunday Morning: High Confidence.

VFR. Light winds 5-10 kts through the day. Seabreezes expected to develop 12-13z then kick out 00-02z. Light NW winds overnight, with another seabreeze Sunday as early as 12z.

KBOS Terminal...High Confidence.

KBDL Terminal...High Confidence.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: VFR.

Monday through Monday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Wednesday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Saturday Night...High confidence.

Mostly tranquil boating conditions continue into next week. A weak cold front should cross the waters tonight. Mainly dry weather today into next Wed. Could see areas of SCA conditions by next Tuesday with increasing SW winds.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Monday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Tuesday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft.

Wednesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None.