textproduct: Boston / Norton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation and added Climate information. Otherwise no significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather with moderating temps today and Fri. After a cold start...sunny skies will allow highs to recover into the 50s to near 60 this afternoon and well into the 60s Fri. Southerly flow will result in cooler high temps mainly in the upper 40s to the lower 50s along the south coast both days.

- Dry this weekend outside brief scattered showers Fri night into early Sat morning. Otherwise...dry/seasonable with weekend highs in the middle 50s to the lower 60s.

- Summer-like warmth arrives early next week. Highs well into the 60s to the lower 70s Mon and potentially 80+ Tue. Summerlike warmth possible again Wed but need to watch a backdoor cold front especially across eastern MA. A few brief showers possible at times...but dry weather dominates.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather with moderating temps today and Fri. After a cold start...sunny skies will allow highs to recover into the 50s to near 60 this afternoon and well into the 60s Fri. Southerly flow will result in cooler high temps mainly in the upper 40s to the lower 50s along the south coast both days.

After an unseasonably cold start early this morning...large high pressure will move east and away from the region allowing a return southerly flow of milder air. The result will be sunny skies today but with a milder afternoon along with a bit of southerly breeze. Highs should reach well into the 50s to perhaps near 60 in a few spots. It will be cooler near the south coast as southerly winds will allow a modified marine airmass to keep highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s in this region.

Not as cold tonight...but airmass is still quite dry so low temps will still mainly be in the 30s with even a few localized upper 20s possible in the normally coolest outlying locations. Mid level temps will continue to warm on Fri with southwest flow out ahead of a cold front. Partly to mostly sunny skies should push highs well into the 60s with a southwest breeze of 20-25 mph developing by mid afternoon with a few gusts near 30 mph possible towards the Cape and Islands. The warming mid level temps and good mixing should push highs well into the 60s on Fri across much of the region. The gusty SSW flow will keep afternoon temps mainly in the upper 40s to the middle 50s near the south coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry this weekend outside brief scattered showers Fri night into early Sat morning. Otherwise...dry/seasonable with weekend highs in the middle 50s to the lower 60s.

A cold front will cross the region Fri night. While deep layer moisture is rather limited...there probably will be enough forcing for a brief period of scattered showers. Any rainfall amounts will be light and short-lived in a given location. This activity should pretty much have exited the Cape/Islands by mid morning Sat. Otherwise...a dry and pleasant weekend is in store for the region. Large high pressure will build in from the west Sat into Sun. Highs both days should mainly be in the middle 50s to the lower 60s...which is seasonable for the second week in April.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Summer-like warmth arrives early next week. Highs well into the 60s to the lower 70s Mon and potentially 80+ Tue. Summerlike warmth possible again Wed but need to watch a backdoor cold front especially across eastern MA. A few brief showers possible at times...but dry weather dominates.

A warm front will cross the region Sun night into Mon morning with the potential for a brief round of scattered showers. A few brief showers also possible late Tue and/or Wed...but dry weather dominates.

Otherwise...the main story is above normal temps on Mon and potential for summerlike warmth by Tue. Currently thinking highs will be well into the 60s to the lower 70s Mon and potentially 80+ by Tue. Summerlike warmth is possible again Wed...but will need to watch the timing of a potential backdoor cold front Wed especially across eastern MA. If this moves through on the earlier side...much cooler temps would work into eastern New England.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

12z TAF Update...High confidence.

VFR. We could see some patchy ground fog toward sunrise Fri with brief MVFR/IFR visibilities, especially near South Coast. Otherwise S/SW winds prevail with some 20-25kt gusts this afternoon and again near South Coast Fri afternoon.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Scattered SHRA.

Saturday: VFR. Breezy.

Saturday Night through Sunday: VFR.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Monday: VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Friday...High confidence.

High pressure shifts east of the region today. Some southerly wind gusts of 20+ knots and choppy seas develop this afternoon...but thinking conditions generally remain below small craft advisory thresholds. SW wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots should develop Fri afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. We may see some near shore gusts up to 30 knots in the typically prone areas around Block Island Sound and Buzzards Bay. Later shifts will likely need a small craft advisory for some of our waters...particularly nearshore Friday afternoon.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Scattered rain showers.

Saturday through Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Monday: Strong winds with areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

CLIMATE

Since we are potentially looking at our first 80-degree temperatures of the season early next week, here are some stats regarding average, earliest, and latest 80-degree temperatures.

Note that Hartford (Bradley) already hit 80 degrees this year back on March 31.

Boston: Average May 4, Earliest March 21, 1921, Latest June 16, 1924

Providence: Average May 4, Earliest March 20, 1945, Latest June 18, 1924

Hartford: Average April 28, Earliest March 9, 2016, Latest June 15, 1924

Worcester: Average May 4, Earliest March 15, 1990, Latest June 10, 1997

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None.