textproduct: Boston / Norton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The worst of the wind is over. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories for eastern MA and RI have been cancelled.

KEY MESSAGES

- The worst of the wind is behind us but windswept rain with minor coastal flooding/beach erosion and potential for some localized urban and street flooding persists into Monday. - Marked improvement Tuesday, followed by mainly dry and warmer weather for the remainder of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...The worst of the wind is behind us but windswept rain with minor coastal flooding/beach erosion and potential for some localized urban and street flooding persists into Monday.

Monitoring the progress of our Nor'easter on satellite we can see the center of circulation already starting to move west into New Jersey. It takes the core of the low level jet with it, thus, the worst of the wind is over with for southern New England. High Wind Warnings have been dropped as have Wind Advisories for eastern MA and RI while we'll continue those advisories for CT and western/central MA through the morning for any pockets of damaging wind we may see over the next several hours. Generally expecting NE winds to continue to gust as high as 30-40 mph today. For the second half of the weekend we'll continue to deal with widespread, windswept rainfall, heavy at times, which over the course of the next two days will add up to 2-4 inches for most. Some locations may see as much as 5-7 inches. For that reason, the Flood Watch continues through Monday though the long duration of the rainfall will help to mitigate flooding issues. Turning attention to the coast, we will continue the Coastal Flood Warning and Advisory for the east and and south facing coasts respectively. As we've mentioned over the past several days, combination of the prolonged NE winds and high astronomical tides will contribute to coastal erosion and potential for minor coastal flooding through at least Sunday, potentially into Monday. Fortunately both Nantucket and Boston managed to stay under flood stage with the overnight high tide, but will continue to approach flood stage over the next few high tide cycles along with locations up and down the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Marked improvement Tuesday, followed by mainly dry and warmer weather for the remainder of the week.\

By Tuesday our low pressure system meanders its way offshore finally ushering in winds from a different direction (namely, from the NW). As the steering flow becomes more zonal going into the middle and latter part of the week we'll see some movement and even some rising mid level heights. Along with a markedly drier pattern this allows for a warming airmass with 850mb temps rising from around 10C to near 15C by late week which spells a nice, if brief, warm-up back into the mid/upper 70s late week before our next cold front brings cooler weather and perhaps some unsettled weather end of week.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update:

Through 00z Monday: High confidence.

IFR for most with wind-driven rain and mist, though MVFR/IFR at BDL with lighter/intermittent rain. NE winds gusting to around 20-25 kt for the interior, but upwards of 30-35 kt for eastern MA/RI.

Tonight: Moderate confidence.

IFR prevails with continued rain and enhanced NE winds. Ceilings could slip as low as LIFR tonight/overnight but confidence on if and when this happens is moderate. Gradual, very slow easing trends to NE gusts in the 25-30 kt range, strongest near the northeast coast.

Monday: Moderate confidence.

Continued IFR, though optimism for MVFR ceilings by afternoon as rain begins to taper to more intermittent showers. NE winds around 10-15 kt with gusts in the low 20s kt range.

Monday Night: Moderate confidence.

Categories should trend to MVFR with stratus lingering around but rain should be tapering off to drier conditions by early Tue AM. NE to N winds around 10 kt.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday Night through Friday/...

Monday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible.

Wednesday through Wednesday Night: VFR.

Thursday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Monday...

The nor'easter will continue to weaken and move west meaning winds decreasing through the day on Sunday and into Monday. Even so, winds will still gust 20-30 kts on the southern waters and 30-40 kts on the eastern waters Sunday. Seas of 10-14 ft this morning will diminish to 6-10 ft by tonight and 5-7 ft by Monday evening.

Outlook /Monday Night through Friday/...

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday Night through Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. MA...Flood Watch through late Monday night for MAZ004>007-012>024- 026. Coastal Flood Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ007- 015-016-019-022>024. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ007-015- 016-019-022>024. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT Monday night for MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MAZ020- 021. RI...Flood Watch through late Monday night for RIZ001>008. Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for RIZ002- 004>008. MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ230-250-251- 280. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for ANZ231. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ232>235-237. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ236. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ254>256.