textproduct: Boston / Norton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased forecast QPF slightly for later today.

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled weather returns today with a frontal passage and periods of showers

- Another round of unsettled weather possible for this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather returns today with a frontal passage and periods of showers.

Shortwave disturbances track towards southern New England within SW flow aloft today. The jet at around 500 mb picks up more towards the afternoon and, given its placement, provides better ascent. A plume of above-normal moisture will also advect into the region, with some guidance having PWAT values up to around 1.7" by the afternoon and evening hours. With all of these factors together, scattered showers are expected to move through the region later today into tonight.

Despite this being the day of the event, there are still some discrepancies between the guidance regarding rainfall totals. The general consensus is that a front passes through the region late today into tonight, and with it, scattered showers. Aside from the GFS, more models have come to agree the higher rainfall totals in our area will be towards the south coast onto Cape Cod and the Islands. Totals there range from 0.25" to around an inch, with some outliers from the CAMs that exceed that. The HREF PMM even has 24 hour totals along the south coast up to 2". This is all most likely due to these models (and the HREF's members) picking up on the possible development of showers with more convective characteristics. HREF probabilities, though, do keep the higher chances for 1" an hour rates out of southern New England. GFS-based guidance remains much drier than the other model suites, keeping any appreciable totals off to our southwest. ECMWF and Canadian ensembles, though, both agree on around 20 to 50 percent probabilities for totals to reach or exceed 0.5" towards the south coast into RI, SE MA, and the Cape, with probes up to 60 percent towards the Islands in the ECMWF guidance. NAEFS guidance also tracks the anomalous moisture plume into these same areas, so rainfall totals reaching at least 0.5" are not out of the question. Elsewhere in southern New England, totals will be much lower given the drier air filtering in there.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another round of unsettled weather possible for this weekend.

With the drier air coming in behind the front, the interior likely dries out a bit from any showers going into Friday. Weak low pressure off the coast of Long Island could track more NE and lead to scattered showers for SE MA, RI, and the south coast onto Cape Cod with cyclonic flow keeping conditions moist and unsettled.

Guidance continues to show the front stalling out somewhere off the east coast; a much larger shortwave moves in from the Great Lakes Saturday into Sunday, greatly amplifying the SW flow aloft as well. Discrepancies regarding the front's placement do remain, but the most likely track at this time has low pressure tracking right over southern New England. This would lead to more widespread rainfall across the region between Saturday and Sunday. NAEFS and other ensemble guidance once again has us under more anomalous moisture, so totals that reach around an inch or two remain within the realm of possibility. Depending on the timing of these waves and low pressure, thunderstorms could be possible if they can take advantage of daytime heat.

The front looks to move offshore sometime Monday, allowing for high pressure to develop in its wake and bring drier weather overall.

AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 12z...High confidence.

Mainly VFR with light WSW winds. Patchy MVFR remains possible for the Cape, and the Islands will likely remain LIFR/IFR for much of this period, improving as we get closer to sunrise.

Today...High confidence.

VFR. Scattered showers arrive from west to east after 18-20Z with a few thunderstorms possible. Confidence not high enough to include TSRA in TAF, but SHRA included as PROB30 for now.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.

VFR with areas of MVFR to IFR towards the Islands. Scattered showers continue moving east through the overnight period. These would most likely linger towards the Cape and Islands, along with SE MA. Winds may briefly pick up slightly following the frontal passage, with gusts possibly reaching 15 kt at the most.

Friday...Moderate confidence.

Mostly VFR with MVFR/low-end VFR towards the Cape and Islands. Guidance has shown a possible return of showers as low pressure passes to our south and east. These would likely impact more eastern terminals, including into RI. Onshore NE winds 5-10 kt.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, patchy BR.

Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. SHRA, isolated TSRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Monday: VFR. Breezy.

MARINE

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Friday...High confidence. Light southerly flow today with E flow possible in the afternoon over the eastern waters. Winds shift more N, then E following the frontal passage Thursday night, generally to around 15 kt. Gusts could approach 20 kt over the southern waters heading into Friday morning. E to NE winds continue into Friday night. Seas 1-3 ft. Showers possible this evening through Friday.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, patchy fog.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers likely, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None.