textproduct: Boston / Norton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increasing confidence in a mild and unsettled pattern next week.

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry this weekend. Cooler today, with a warmup starting Sunday.

- Dry and mild on Monday before the pattern becomes wet and unsettled for most of the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry this weekend. Cooler today, with a warmup starting Sunday.

Our weather will be driven by a large high pressure to our west today. Below normal cold for late March today. As our relative position to this high pressure changes, so will our temperatures. Expecting near normal temperatures for Sunday.

Dry weather persists through Sunday, with periods of clouds from time to time.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Warm, dry, and windy Sunday then trending unsettled again with periods of showers Tuesday through late week.

Should see a fairly pleasant and seasonably mild day on Monday under the influence of departing high pressure. High temperatures likely range from the lower to mid 60s away from the coast. Could see some isolated fire weather concerns across the interior with breezy south west winds and falling relative humidity values during the afternoon.

The pattern trends unsettled early next week with ensemble guidance showing an increasingly active northern stream with several embedded shortwaves. There are still timing differences in the timing of the individual waves across deterministic/ensemble guidance. One trend in guidance has been to develop one of the waves into an area of low pressure over the upper Midwest Tuesday. Ensembles are somewhat split on the eventual track of the low center but the emerging consensus is to have it track near or north of New England on Wednesday. Deep southwest flow ahead of the system advects anomalous moisture over southern New England by early Tuesday. We should see areas of scattered showers develop early Tuesday into the afternoon. Expect periodic chances for showers through the remainder of the week. Low pressure tracking to the north of New England would place our region in the warm sector with above normal temps for the first half of the week. Latest NBM runs even show a chance of temps warming into the lower to mid 70s Wednesday. A cold front moves through later in the week, trending temperatures back to seasonable/slightly cooler temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Sunday...High Confidence

VFR. Gusty N to NW winds this morning diminish this afternoon. Risk for localized east coast sea breezes this afternoon. Lighter W to NW winds tonight become SW Sunday.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF. Expecting a NE flow to develop 18-20Z today. Low risk for more of an E wind towards the evening push.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night through Monday: VFR. Breezy.

Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance RA.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA.

Tuesday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight chance RA.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Chance RA, isolated TSRA.

MARINE

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Gusty winds continue today, but are expected to remain less than 25 kt as a high pressure overspreads the waters. Rough seas subside early this morning as well. Relatively light winds and seas then persist through Sunday.

Gusty north/northwest winds and 4-6 foot seas gradually diminish and subside overnight as high pressure builds in from the west. Relatively quiet weather across the coastal waters by March standards thereafter with 10-20 knot northerly with prevailing through Saturday. Winds begin to shift to the west/southwest Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Outlook /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Monday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Tuesday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain.

Tuesday Night: Strong winds with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Wednesday: Strong winds with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Chance of rain.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ254.