textproduct: Boston / Norton

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly dry this afternoon, though a rogue shower or thunderstorm remains possible through sunset.

- A fall-like feel with seasonable temperatures and very low humidity Saturday, becoming more summer-like Sunday. The weekend remains dry, with increasing clouds late Sunday.

- Cloudy and unsettled early to mid next week with several opportunities for showers and storms. While Monday now looks cloudy but generally dry, better chances for showers and storms are anticipated for Tue through Thurs.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly dry this afternoon, though a rogue shower or thunderstorm remains possible through sunset.

Seasonably warm and muggy this afternoon, though many locations will remain dry. Earlier cloud cover resulted in lower CAPE values and, in some instances, a weak cap along and east of I-95. However, that cap is eroding, with isolated showers and garden-variety thunderstorms developing. With the approach of a cold front this afternoon, a rogue pop-up shower or thunderstorm remains possible; however, coverage should be sparse.

Storms should remain sub-severe, though sufficient DCAPE of 800-1000 J/kg exists mainly west of I-495 in MA and across northern and central CT. Any storms that develop in these areas could produce gusty straight-line winds. The best timing for storms is between 2 and 8 PM. With the loss of daytime heating, any storms that develop will quickly diminish. That being said, there is nothing worth canceling outdoor plans over.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A fall-like feel with seasonable temperatures and very low humidity Saturday, becoming more summer-like Sunday. The weekend remains dry, with increasing clouds late Sunday.

A post-cold-frontal air mass arrives overnight, ushering in refreshing conditions and setting the stage for a nice weekend. High pressure moves in from the northwest, leading to dry weather both Saturday and Sunday.

Dew points Saturday will be fall-like, mainly in the 50s. However, the lower humidity will be short-lived, as southwest flow returns Sunday and brings dew points back into the middle and upper 60s. Otherwise, temperatures will be seasonable Saturday, with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees, then slightly warmer Sunday, with highs in the lower to middle 80s.

As mentioned, Sunday remains dry, though clouds increase during the afternoon ahead of the next chance for rain. A few cool nights are also expected, allowing for a break from the air conditioning. Temperatures fall into the 50s overnight into Saturday morning and again Saturday night into Sunday morning, though urban centers remain in the lower 60s.

Additionally, there is a moderate risk for rip currents Saturday. Those heading to the beach should check with beach staff or lifeguards regarding rip current conditions before entering the water.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Cloudy and unsettled early to mid next week with several opportunities for showers and storms. While Monday now looks cloudy but generally dry, better chances for showers and storms are anticipated for Tue through Thurs.

Still looks unsettled during the early to middle part of the workweek. A backdoor cool front looks to build westward through Southern New England on Mon with generally dry but cloudy weather, then remain to our southwest Tue and Wed. Periods of showers and storms now seem more favored around Tue and Wed versus Mon. Thurs may offer a better shot at widespread showers and storms regionally, as a cold front looks to progress the stalled frontal boundary southward. Expect a narrower range in high/low temps Mon through Wed, with highs running a little cooler than normal and lows slightly milder than normal.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through 00z...Moderate confidence.

Low-end VFR to MVFR ceilings. A rogue shower or thunderstorm remains possible across much of southern New England, and PROB30 groups have been included for TSRA this afternoon. The threat diminishes after sunset. A weak sea breeze is expected along the eastern MA coast; otherwise, winds will be W to NW.

Tonight...High confidence.

VFR. Light N winds.

Saturday and Saturday Night...High confidence.

VFR. NW winds 5 to 8 kt, with a sea breeze possible across eastern MA during the day. Winds shift to the SW overnight, with speeds less than 5 kt.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence.

Offshore sea breeze is about to reach the terminal. Spot showers remain possible this afternoon through sunset.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday: VFR. Breezy.

Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Monday: VFR.

Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

Tuesday Night: VFR. SHRA likely, slight chance TSRA.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, slight chance TSRA.

MARINE

Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Sunday...High confidence.

A cold front clears the coast tonight, with winds shifting from SW to N by Saturday. However, winds over the waters off the eastern MA coast remain E due to a localized sea breeze. In general, ideal boating conditions are expected Saturday.

Winds shift to SSW by Sunday, with gusts of 20 to 25 kt, especially in areas prone to funneling, such as Vineyard Sound and Buzzards Bay. Seas during this period will generally range from 2 to 4 ft, with the highest waves over the outer waters.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Wednesday/...

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Monday through Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None.