textproduct: Boise

UPDATE

Updated aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry conditions through the weekend with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

- Cooler conditions after Monday with a slight chance of precipitation.

SHORT TERM /Through Friday Night/

Issued 201 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026 The upper level ridge axis currently sits over the Intermountain West, maintaining stable, dry, and mild conditions across southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho. Under clear skies and lightweight surface gradients, winds will remain generally light and diurnal through Friday night.

As the ridge remains centered over the region, thermal troughing at the surface will strengthen slightly, allowing high temperatures to trend gradually warmer each afternoon. Mid-level height field peaks Thursday into Friday. By Friday afternoon, high temperatures will crest roughly 5 to 8 degrees above seasonal averages, bringing afternoon highs in the lower river valleys into the mid to upper 70s.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/

Issued 201 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026 A weak and moisture-starved upper level trough will cross the Pacific Northwest on Saturday, pushing a dry cold front through the area. While precipitation chances remain near zero due to limited mid and low level moisture, the frontal passage will effectively break down the upper level ridge and kick off a cooling trend across the region. Surface winds will shift west to northwest and become breezy at times on Saturday behind the front, especially across the Magic Valley and higher terrain.

By Sunday, the next upper level trough approaches the West Coast. This will back upper level flow across the region to the south and southwest, maintaining dry conditions and near-normal temperatures through early next week. Latest ensemble and deterministic guidance now favors the trough splitting along the West Coast and eventually forming a closed low off the southern California coast Tuesday/Wednesday. This path keeps the primary threat of precipitation focused west of the Cascades and mostly outside our forecast area through Wednesday. There is a limited chance for precipitation (15-20%) across south-central Idaho if enough moisture can be advected northward Wednesday. Expect afternoon highs to drop back into the 60s for most valley locations starting Monday and continuing through midweek.

AVIATION /00Z Thursday through Friday/

Issued 618 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026 VFR. Areas of smoke from prescribed burning. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: NE 10-20kt. Surface winds: N-NW 5-15kt becoming light after sunset, then becoming E-SE 5-10kt Thu afternoon.

KBOI...VFR. NW 5-15kt becoming light after sunset, and SE 5-10kt by Thu afternoon.

BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ID...None.

OR...None.