textproduct: Boise

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday

Active weather will continue. To begin, precipitation will be waning from the previous upper-level trough as it moves east of the region. Brief shortwave upper-level ridging will pass overhead late Thursday into Friday, bringing dry conditions. Temperatures will remain slightly above normal through Friday.

Another system will move in late Friday into Sunday thanks to an upper-level longwave trough digging into the region. This will send cold air southward from British Columbia. However, we will stay under southwest flow aloft thanks to a deepening upper-level low off the Oregon Coast. This will likely continue the trend of slightly above normal temperatures, with snow levels 4000-5000 feet MSL. Slight shifts in this pattern could change the forecast, with some deterministic models (GFS primarily) and some clusters favoring a more northerly track of the trough. This would help shift southwest flow to the east and bring a colder airmass to the area, potentially bringing snow down to valley floors. Confidence in this solution is low, with the more likely outcome keeping rain or a rain-snow mix in most lower elevation population centers through next weekend.

AVIATION

Precipitation continuing through early Monday morning, bringing localized MVFR-IFR. After 18z/Mon, precipitation chances largely limited to higher terrain of central ID. Snow levels 4-5.5 kft MSL, lowering to 3-4 kft MSL by late Monday morning. Mtns obscured in precipitation/low ceilings. Surface winds: W-NW 10-15 kt, except KTWF/KJER gusts 20-30 kt through Monday afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW-NW 25-40 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: W-NW 10-15 kt.

BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ID...None. OR...None.