textproduct: Boise
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LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday
Southwest flow prevails through early next as a upper-level trough will sit stagnant off of the west coast. Some shortwaves may propagate through the main flow. However, with precipitable water values ranging from the 15th-30th percentile these shortwaves should bring nothing more than some periods of increased cloud cover. While deterministic models have considerable variability on how the trough progresses onshore, they do show it making its way inland. The GFS and Euro grand ensembles also indicate troughing making it's way over our area early next week. Moisture still looks to be limited when the trough moves over our area, so this is only resulting in a 10-15% chance of showers and thunder over the central Idaho mountains, with the higher chances in northeast Valley county, Monday and Tuesday afternoon. As of now, Wednesday is looking to be dry with near zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will have very limited daily variations through Wednesday, hovering 5-10 degrees above normal. Although with the uncertainty regarding the trough progression early next week, there is also some uncertainty in the temperatures early next week.
AVIATION
VFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms across east Oregon and SW Idaho this morning through this evening. Thunderstorms have the potential for hail, brief downpours, and outflows of 35 kt. Mtns obscured in thunder. Surface winds: Variable 5-10 kt this morning, becoming W-NW 5-15 kt outside of thunder. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S-SW 10-20 kt
KBOI...VFR. Rain showers this morning with chance of thunderstorms increasing after Wed/15z (25-30% chance of thunder from Wed/15z to Thu/00z). Thunder capable of 35kt outflows, hail, and brief downpours. Surface winds: Variable under 10kt outside of showers. Becoming NW 8-12 kt with gusts up to 20 kt by mid-day.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...Flood Watch from 2 PM MDT this afternoon through this evening IDZ011-013. OR...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MDT /5 PM PDT/ this evening ORZ672-673.
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