textproduct: Boise

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday

The long term period will start of dry, thanks to high pressure over the Pacific and the departing trough puts our area under dry northerly flow aloft. This flow aloft will also help keep lower elevation temperatures near normal, higher elevations will be leaning above normal. Going into late weekend, it continues to appear likely that a pattern shift will get underway. As has been the case, uncertainty remains on when this pattern change will take place. The GFS ensemble suite continues to favor an earlier onset (as early as Thursday night), whereas the Euro ensemble suite favors a later onset. The ridge weakening would allow for multiple shortwaves to pass across our area while tapping into some Pacific moisture. This will allow for mild temps with snow levels around 4-6kft MSL. Precipitation chances will begin to increase early Friday, making it to 15-30% in lower elevations and 30-70% in higher elevations (chances increasing with elevation) Friday afternoon. By Saturday, these chances increase to 30-50% in lower elevations and 50-85% in higher elevations.

AVIATION

Generally VFR, MVFR/LIFR conditions in fog/low stratus persisting in the western Magic Valley and near the Nevada border. Conditions improving to VFR area-wide by around Mon/00z. Low confidence in fog development Monday morning. Surface winds: NW 5-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt in the Snake Plain, becoming variable up to 10 kt overnight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: NW-NE 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: NW 10-15 kts with gusts to 20kt this afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight.

BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ID...None. OR...None.