textproduct: Boise

LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday

High pressure aloft dominates the synoptic pattern through the long term, bringing mostly clear skies and drier weather. During this time, an inversion will develop over most valleys, creating stagnant air conditions for much of the area and trapping moisture near the surface. Morning fog and stratus is possible each morning. Temps in the inverted conditions are still about normal for this time of year.

Model trends continue to carry the ridge further northward, decreasing any chance for precip through the long term. The only slight chance for precipitation exists in far north Valley County late Monday through Tuesday as the storm track still barely clips our CWA. If the model trends continue, this chance will continue to drop. By Wednesday, the ridge has developed into a properly closed high near Northern California, suggesting the high and dry conditions are slated to continue past the long-term.

AVIATION

VFR with scattered MVFR-IFR rain/snow showers this afternoon through midnight. This evening stronger showers have a 10-20% chance of producing lightning and graupel, mainly in SW ID. Snow levels drop from 4kft MSL to valley floors by midnight as a cold front moves through. Clearer Thursday morning. Surface winds: SE-SW 5-15 kt, gusts 20-30 kt across ridges and SE OR, shifting to W-NW 5- 15 kt with gusts to 35 kt after Thurs/00Z. Showers may produce outflows up to 30 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W 20-30 kt.

KBOI...Rain/snow mixed shower coverage increasing this afternoon through midnight. 30% chance of MVFR precip at the terminal with a 10% chance of thunder and graupel this evening. Clearer conditions after midnight. Surface winds W-NW 5-15 kt, variable near showers.

BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening IDZ011-013. OR...None.