textproduct: Boise
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday
Friday morning isolated snow showers dissipate through the day as a high amplitude ridge moves overhead. This ridge will dominate much of the long term, keeping things dry and supporting the development of an inversion and stagnant air. Temps will be about normal for this time of year, but the inversion will favor valley fog and stratus for multiple days. There are some hints of the ridge weakening among members of the ensembles and a few deterministic runs. The first sign is Sunday where the ridge axis weakens, allowing moist flow, clouds, and even a slight chance of mountain precip into the far northern portions of our CWA. However, this is short lived as by Sunday evening the ridge among all models clusters will redevelop on the coast and favor stagnant and dry conditions again. The position of the redeveloped ridge puts our area just south of another plume of moisture, which may present another opportunity for unsettled conditions if future model runs carry the high pressure southward. All this to say, dry, seasonal, and stagnant conditions are still the most likely outcome through the long term.
AVIATION
Rain and snow is moving in from the NW to the SE. Precipitation is most likely in higher terrain, lasting from this evening through Wednesday morning. Snow levels remain around 4-5 kft MSL through Wednesday afternoon. Lower elevations will see VFR light rain and mountain valleys MVFR-LIFR wet snow or mixed precip with low clouds. Wednesday morning, mist/fog could return to valleys briefly before another round of precip and areas of LLWS. Surface winds: SE-SW 5-15 kt, gusts 20-30 kt across ridges and SE OR. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W 30-40 kt.
KBOI...Overcast with a 30% chance of light rain this evening. A brief dry period overnight before another 30% chance of light rain Wednesday morning. Ceilings drop to just above MVFR during precipitation. Winds remain generally light SE, but may shift NW with precip.
BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST Wednesday IDZ011-013. OR...None.
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