textproduct: Boise

UPDATE

Updated aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms through this evening across portions of southwestern Idaho and southeastern Oregon, with lightning and gusty outflow winds the main hazard and a lower chance of brief heavy rain and small hail.

- Isolated/scattered thunderstorms on Tuesday. - Hot temperatures through the week and into the weekend. - Breezy winds each afternoon, especially on Wednesday.

SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday Night/

Issued 145 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2026 disturbance seen in GOES satellite imagery is spinning cyclonically over southeastern Oregon this afternoon. An area of clouds and light rain located north and east of the disturbance has held surface temperatures down and made the atmosphere more stable in those areas...including the Baker Valley in Oregon and the the Cascade and McCall areas in Idaho. However, skies have cleared out south of the disturbance and the atmosphere is becoming very unstable across southern Oregon and southwestern Idaho, south of Burns in Oregon and south of the Treasure Valley in Idaho. Scattered thunderstorms are developing in that area and will spread north and east through the early evening hours. These storms are expected to produce gusty winds up to 50 mph, small hail and brief rain. Thunderstorm activity should subside overnight, but there is about a 20 percent chance of isolated thunderstorms developing again on Tuesday afternoon. Generally hot and dry weather can be expected on Wednesday with southwesterly winds increasing in the afternoon.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/

Issued 145 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2026 degrees of cooling, with temperatures near normal, thanks to the passage of an upper-level shortwave. While dry, breezy conditions will persist through Thursday, with afternoon gusts to 20-35 mph in across southern Idaho. These breezy conditions, paired with minimum afternoon relative humidities around 15% in the lower elevations, will lead to elevated fire weather concerns for SW Idaho BLM zones.

A Four Corners ridge will be the name of the game throughout the rest of the long-term. This building ridge will lead to a week of hot and dry conditions. Luckily for our neck of the woods, a trough over SE Alaska will help keep the hottest temperatures east of our area. Come Friday, valley high temperatures will reach the upper 90s with some locations playing with triple digits. With our area on the periphery of this ridge, even a slight shift west of the ridge would allow for many lower elevation sites to hit the triple digits. Come Monday, monsoonal moisture could begin to work it's way around the ridge over our area. Ensemble guidance has precipitable water values increasing to near the the percentile come Monday. This would support an increasing risk of thunderstorms Monday and beyond.

AVIATION /06Z Tuesday through Wednesday/

Issued 1139 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2026 VFR with clearing skies tonight through Tuesday morning. Isolated/scattered storms returning Tuesday PM. Gusty and erratic winds near storms. High density altitude in the afternoon due to heat. Surface winds outside of storms: variable 10 kt or less overnight and Tue AM. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW-W 5-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Foothills obscured by wildfire smoke. A 10-20% chance of showers/thunderstorms Tuesday evening. High density altitude Tuesday afternoon due to heat. Surface winds: variable or SE around 5 kt overnight through Tuesday morning, becoming NW 5-10 kt in the afternoon.

BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ID...OR...None.