textproduct: Boise

LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday

Continued pattern of active weather on deck. The trend over the past few days has been pushing this coming offshore trough to later and later into the week, with the most recent cluster analysis keeping the upper-level low off the California coast until late Monday. Sunday and Monday temperatures will run warmer than normal as this pattern will provide warm southwesterly flow aloft. Late Monday, clusters and deterministic model runs show another upper-level trough moving south from the Gulf of Alaska and finally kicking the upper-level low east/northeast over our area. Precipitation chances greatly increase late Monday into Tuesday as a result, and stay elevated as the system continues to linger. Temps cool down to a few degrees below normal by Wednesday, and unsettled conditions continue.

AVIATION

Areas of MVFR-IFR in low stratus. IFR-VLIFR in patchy fog/mist developing overnight. Mtn obscuration. Improvement of fog late Thu morning, but stratus lingering. A 5-10% chance of rain/mixed showers across SW Idaho mtns and SE Oregon Thursday PM. Return of widespread fog/low stratus overnight Thursday into Friday morning. Surface winds: variable up to 10 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W to NW 5-15 kt.

KBOI...MVFR-IFR in low stratus and mist overnight. Stratus ceilings lifting late Thu morning, then eroding Thu afternoon. Low stratus returning overnight Thursday into Friday morning. Surface winds: light and variable.

Weekend Outlook...VFR. High clouds will stream overhead, with some showers possible (30-60%) along the higher terrain of Eastern Oregon and the West-Central Idaho mountains. MVFR-IFR conditions possible in the higher terrain from these showers, mist, and low stratus. Surface winds: E-SE 5-12 kts.

BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ID...None. OR...None.