textproduct: Boise

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

UPDATE

Updated aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy and slightly cooler Today.

- Very hot Tuesday. Record high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s in the lower valleys.

- Low pressure system arriving Wednesday will bring a cooling trend and chances of showers/thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday Night/

Issued 320 AM MDT MON MAY 11 2026 A dry cold front passing over our area early morning will bring slightly cooler temperatures and breezy northwest winds over the Snake Plain today. By early Tuesday, a strong ridge will build over the entire western CONUS. Considerably warm temperatures are expected Tuesday, with lower-elevation valleys expected to see peak temperatures in the lower to mid 90s; max temperatures were adjusted slightly downward from the previous discussions.

A Pacific upper low will begin moving inland early Wednesday. There is slight guidance uncertainty over the exact arrival timing and behavior of this system as it approaches our area, but there is strong agreement on showers and thunderstorms expected Wednesday. Areas will generally see a 40-60% chance of showers and a 20-30% chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon/evening. This system's arrival will begin a cooling trend starting Wednesday.

LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/

Issued 320 AM MDT MON MAY 11 2026 An upper level trough will track across the Pacific NW on Thursday. Still some major differences in the positioning of this trough so forecast confidence is low. A couple of the models have the trough tracking across northern NV into southwest ID which would be much wetter and cooler than the current forecast. If this trough track comes to fruition, wetting rains possible for much of the area with 0.25 to 0.75 inch of precipitation for southeast OR and southwest ID. Eventually the models agree on cooler temperatures for Sunday and Monday of next week with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal and snow levels of 5000 to 6500 feet MSL. Showers will mainly be confined north of a line from Baker City OR to McCall ID.

AVIATION /18Z Monday through Tuesday/

Issued 1148 AM MDT MON MAY 11 2026 VFR. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt, gusts up to 25 kt possible near KGNG KTWF KJER. Surface winds becoming variable 10 kt or less after 12/00Z. Winds aloft 10kft MSL: W 15-25 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Surface winds NW 5-10 kt with gusts to 20 kt becoming variable around 5 kt after 12/00Z.

BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ID...None.

OR...None.

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