textproduct: Boise

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms today capable of wind gusts to 70 mph, blowing dust, hail, and heavy rain, with the highest potential across southeast Oregon and the west-central Idaho mountains.

- Breezy south winds this afternoon with gusts 50 mph in southern Twin Falls County.

- Showers and weaker thunderstorms persist on Friday, then decrease on Saturday with mostly dry conditions returning next week.

- Temperatures cool to slightly below normal on Saturday, then warm to 10-15 degrees above normal by the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM /Through Saturday Night/

Impressive severe weather setup over the region this afternoon, with large hail and strong winds possible. A trough remains over western NV today with a shortwave moving north along the NV border this afternoon. Favorable dynamics aloft for severe weather today across eastern OR and southwest ID along the OR border. A severe thunderstorm watch has been issued for large hail up to 2 inches in diameter, mainly across eastern OR and strong to severe outflow winds across southwest Idaho. At the time of this writing, a storm east of Burns OR was producing radar estimated 2-3 inch hail. Wind gusts up to 60-80 mph possible with the stronger storms in eastern OR and southwest ID from the Owyhees north through the Treasure Valley and Weiser Basin this evening. The storms and associated gust front should move through Boise metro around 4 to 6pm MDT and move north and west toward 5 to 7pm PDT in Baker. Storm threat will quickly dissipate from south to north after this wave moves through and diminishes after sunset. Quieter conditions expected on Friday with showers and thunderstorms lingering over the west central ID mountains. Saturday will be the coolest day of the period as the trough slowly moves east into Montana, with showers lingering over the west central ID mountains.

LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/

Come Sunday, there is greater long-range guidance agreement on the upper low merged with a Pacific longwave trough steering northeast of our area over Montana. This pattern shift will begin a warming and drying trend Sunday through the end of the extended period. Temperatures on Sunday will sit right around normal, warming to 10-15 degrees above normal by Wednesday. Long-range projections hint at a weak and mostly dry shortwave trough digging over over our area late Wednesday into Thursday. For now, Thursday will most likely see dry conditions and above normal temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z Thursday through Friday/

Issued 1109 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2026 Generally VFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing early this afternoon, with the strongest storms in eastern OR and southwest ID. Storms will be capable of strong outflows of 50-60 kt, hail, blowing dust, and brief heavy rain. Showers and thunder tapering off in the evening around sunset. Surface winds outside of storms: SW- SE 10-20 kt with gusts to 20-35 kt this afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: E-SE 15-30 kt.

KBOI...VFR. A 15-20% chance of thunder at the terminal this afternoon 21z-Fri/00z. Thunder capable of brief heavy rain, small hail, and outflows up to 50-60 kt. Strong outflows may travel from distant storms further south. Surface winds outside of storms: S-SE 10-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt this afternoon.

Weekend Outlook...Generally VFR. Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms Friday. Showers and thunderstorms mainly over the central ID mountains on Saturday. Then generally dry Sunday. Gusty erratic winds and brief heavy rain in storms. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt each day with afternoon gusts to 20-25 kt, except W-NW 10-20 kt with afternoon gusts to 30-35 kt near KMUO/KTWF/KJER.

BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ID...Wind Advisory until 7 PM MDT this evening for IDZ030. OR...None.