textproduct: Boise

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday

The region will sit on the northern periphery of a ridge come Wednesday. Moisture advecting around this periphery will lead to widespread mid/high cloud cover throughout the day, and support a 20-70% chance of precipitation generally north of a line connecting Burns, Boise, and Fairfield through Thursday. These precipitation chances increase as you move north where the strongest moisture advection can be found. Come Friday, the evolution of the system will get interesting. A shortwave will move over our area bringing widespread precipitation chances of 20-60%, with the lower values found in lower elevations. As this shortwave passes, deterministic guidance is resolving a reinforcing shot of energy quick behind with increased chances of precipitation accompanying it. Snow levels lowering to 2.5-3.5 kft MSL Saturday morning may give way to a wintery mix throughout the Snake Plain. This short wave then digs down to become a deep positively tilted trough extending from Manitoba, Canada all the way to SoCal with a large amplitude ridge off the west coast; ensemble clusters like this solution as well. This supports lower snow levels and cooler temperatures...However, the magnitude of both would depend on just how deep this trough gets which is still uncertain at this time. For now am maintaining temperatures reaching around 5 degrees below normal with snow levels at 1-2 kft MSL come Sunday.

AVIATION

Areas of MVFR/LIFR in fog/low stratus which will continue to improve through the afternoon. Increasing cloud cover and lowering ceilngs this evening with precipitation in E- Oregon after Mon/00z, moving W-E through Sunday night/Monday morning. Snow levels 5-6 kft MSL, lowering to 2.5-4.5 Monday afternoon. MVFR conditions possible in low ceilngs and precip, IFR/LIFR conditions possible in wintery mix/snow. Surface winds:

Variable up to 10 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 5-15 kt.

KBOI...VFR with increasing clouds and lowering ceilngs this evening and overnight. Rain showers early Monday morning with the mostly likely time for rain at terminal between Mon/13z-Mon16z. Surface winds: Light and variable, this afternoon and overnight. Switching to NW 8-12 with gusts to 22 after Mon/17z.

BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ID...None. OR...None.

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