textproduct: Boise

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday

Widespread precipitation is expected come Wednesday, as an upper level trough and its associated cold front crosses our area from west to east. Snow levels Wednesday morning will start out at 5.5-6.5 kft MSL, before lowering to 3.5-4.5 kft following the frontal passage. Precipitation chances will remain elevated across higher terrain Thursday and beyond, with orographic lift being the main driver in the moist northwesterly flow. High pressure building in over the North Pacific and into our area will support a warming trend beyond Thursday. Uncertainty in regard to precipitation chances increase next weekend. As high pressure continues to build in the Pacific, and a low closes off near the Baja Peninsula, the question becomes where our area will be situated in relation to the low and the jet stream aloft. Latest deterministic guidance is favoring the ridge extending east over our area, keeping the main storm track north. Precipitation trends in ensembles are beginning to reflect this, with the GFS ensemble backing off on precip (outside of the west central Idaho mountains) over the last two runs. The Euro ensemble is still holding on, but in the latest run is trending downward in regard to QPF. For now, am maintaining elevated precipitation chances area-wide come Sunday afternoon.

AVIATION

Generally VFR. Light precipitation/virga increasing from S to N overnight into Sunday. Localized MFVR/IFR conditions in mtn snow and heavier rain showers. A 10% chance of lightning in SE Oregon and near the ID/NV border Sun/PM. Snow Levels: 7-8.5 kft MSL. Surface winds: Variable up to 12 kt, localized gusts up to 30 kt near convection. Winds aloft at 10 kft MSL: W-SW 5-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR with periods of light rain/virga overnight into Sunday. Then, rain likely (>60% chance) late Sunday into early Monday. Ceilings lowering to MVFR by Monday/AM. Surface winds: Light and variable.

BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ID...None. OR...None.