textproduct: Boise

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong cold front moves through the region today bringing valley rain, mountain snow, and a slight chance of thunderstorms (<20% chance) this afternoon and evening with the potential for gusty outflow winds up to 45 mph.

- Windy conditions Thursday, particularly across south central Idaho where gusts up to 50 mph are expected.

- Lingering mountain showers this weekend, with another cold front early next week bringing gusty winds and widespread precipitation.

SHORT TERM /Through Friday Night/

The cold front is tracking through the region as of 2 pm MST, bringing cooler temperatures, moderate rain, and gusty westerly winds across the region. Temperatures have decreased around 5 to 10 degrees as the front has passed through. For example, Rome, OR dropped from 51F to 40F in the space of one hour with northwesterly wind gusts up to 45 mph.

No lightning has been observed north of the Nevada border, but a stray thunderstorm is still possible (20% chance) this evening across southwest Idaho. The outflow wind gusts ahead of the heavier showers are still the primary concern this evening, with several hi-res models showing gusts up to 50 mph along the Mountain Home to Twin Falls I-84 corridor ahead of the front. Moderate valley rain and mountain snow will accompany this push of cold air. The heaviest mountain snowfall will generally be isolated to elevations above 7500 ft, with totals anywhere from 5 to 10 inches by tomorrow morning. Lower elevations from 4000-6000 feet will likely see wet snow totals from 1 to 3 inches.

Winds will kick up behind the cold front over the Camas Prairie and Magic Valley tomorrow, bringing gusts up to 50 mph by early afternoon, therefore the wind advisory is still in effect for those southern zones for tomorrow afternoon. Showers will linger on Friday, with minor accumulations over the mountains, otherwise conditions will be dry and cool under northerly flow aloft.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/

This coming weekend will be mostly dry as a building ridge over the North Pacific extends into our area. This ridging will allow for a warming trend, with temperatures warming to 5-10 degrees above normal on Sunday. Saturday will feature increased high clouds as a shot of upper-level moisture works around the ridge, before clearing Sunday. This remnant moisture may bring slight chances of precipitation over mountain areas this weekend.

Come Monday, a persistent west-northwest jet stream will sit over the northwest region, breaking down the ridge and bringing a cold front across the area early next week. Upper-level moisture continues to look limited as the front steers across the Northern Cascades. However, precipitation chances will increase (to 30-70%) over our northern mountains zones thanks to some orographic lift. Snow levels will drop from 6.5-7.5 kft Sunday to be at or near valley floors following this cold front through Wednesday. For now, accumulations are limited to the central ID mountains. Gusty winds will accompany this cold front, especially Tuesday afternoon where there is a 70-80% chance of wind gusts of 30+ mph in Mountain Home and eastward through the Snake River Plain. Unsettled northwesterly flow aloft will allow for snow showers to persist over the central Idaho Mountains through Wednesday.

AVIATION /18Z Wednesday through Thursday/

Issued 1054 AM MST WED MAR 4 2026

Widespread precip and mountain snow will continue to move east across SE OR this morning, entering SW ID by the afternoon. Scattered precip this evening after the frontal passage, with a 15-20% chance of lightning. Low VFR to IFR conditions in rain, IFR- LIFR in snow. Mountains obscured. Snow levels: 6.5-7.5 kft MSL lowering to 3.5-4.5 kft MSL by Thu/06z. Surface winds: S-SE 5-15 kt, becoming W-NW 10-25 kt with gusts to 35-45 kt behind the front. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 20-40 kt.

KBOI...VFR this morning. A cold front bringing persistent rain to arrive this afternoon 20-21Z, becoming showery after Thu/01Z. Conditions degrading to MVFR in precip, with brief IFR possible in heavier precip. A 15-20% chance of lightning this afternoon/evening. Foothills obscured in precip. Surface winds: SE 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W-NW 10-20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt behind the front.

BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ID...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Thursday for IDZ014-016- 028-030. OR...None.