textproduct: Boise

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday

Pronounced upper ridging will characterize the start of the period, bringing dry conditions with temperatures near seasonal normals. This pattern will also promote inversion conditions in the valleys, resulting in higher probabilities of fog/low stratus each day and reduced air quality.

Still a significant amount of uncertainty in exactly how the upper ridge breakdown process will unfold, with ECMWF AI members showing a more aggressive suppression of heights over the Northwest compared to other deterministic model solutions. However, model consensus is still relatively high that an anomalous area of moisture currently over the Southwest will advect northward into the region and bring higher chances of precipitation (generally 20-50%) from late Thursday through Saturday. Snow levels will generally remain below 5000 feet as well, resulting in periods of mountain snow.

AVIATION

Scattered snow showers mainly over the higher terrain through this afternoon. IFR/LIFR in snow. Mountains obscured. Snow levels near valley floors. Surface winds: NW 5-15 kt increasing to NW-W 10-20 kt with 20-35 kt gusts late this AM. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: NW 20-35 kt.

KBOI...VFR. Showers in vicinity over Boise foothills, creating obscuration. Potential for brief snow shower and degraded visibility at KBOI Saturday mid morning through early afternoon. However, forecast confidence is very low as shower activity will be favoring higher terrain. Precipitation chances end after 22Z. Surface winds: W-NW 8-18 kt with gusts around 25 kt, decreasing this evening.

Sunday Outlook....VFR, cold, and dry. Surface winds light and variable, except W-NW 10-15 kt with a few stronger gusts Sun AM in south-central Idaho (KTWF-KJER).

AIR STAGNATION

Stagnant conditions develop Sunday as a ridge of high pressure begins to build over the area. Poor mixing heights with light winds expected Monday through Thursday. A temperature inversion will strengthen Monday through Wednesday of next week as the ridge moves overhead with warmer temperatures aloft. An advisory will likely be needed for next week.

BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ID...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST early this morning IDZ011-013. OR...None.

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